
Vol.2 Issue 8 August 1st, 2005
Send comments and
suggestions. or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
Quote
of the Month:
"When
I am working on a problem, I never think about beauty. I think
only of how to solve the problem. But when I have finished,
if the solution is not beautiful, I know it is wrong."
Richard
Buckminster Fuller (1895-1983)
American architect, mathematician and engineer
|
- Buy
Your Dream Home With No Money Down. Q&A with Kassie
Welch, Mortgage Financial Consultant.
- The
Eastern European Renaissance. This Year's "It" Investment.
Article and Stock Report Card by Natalie Pace, by Natalie
Pace, Top 10 Stock Picker, according to TipsTraders.com.
- Eastern
Europe Rocks, Western Europe Stumbles, China Moves To
Hong Kong, While the U.S. Stares Into the Abyss. 101
Things You Need To Know About Investing in all 4 Global
Hot Spots. Q&A with Marc A. Miles, Ph.D., the
Director of the Center for International Trade and Economics
at The Heritage Foundation.
- Business
Tip: Send Out Ships. By Chellie Campbell.
- Small
Caps, Biotechs and REITs: Stock Market and Industry
Group Scorecard for the First Quarter of 2005. By Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
- Top
10 Signs of a Bubblicious Housing Market.by Steve
Dietrich, guest lecturer at the Anderson Graduate School
of Business, UCLA and Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com.
- Will
Greenspan Pop the Housing Bubble? 10 Ways to Protect
Yourself. by Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com.
- Summer
of Love on Wall Street: Hot News on Cool Stocks
Boasts 11 Winners, 3 Lying Low and Only Two in Negative
(Buying?) Range by Natalie Pace, Top 10 Stock Picker,
according to TipsTraders.com.
- Single
Mothers Unite to Turn the "Blues" Into Blue Skies.
Learn how you can help the 7 million children who are
living in poverty here in the U.S.

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Buy
Your Dream Home With No Money Down.
Q&A
with Kassie Welch, Mortgage Financial Consultant
On
Wednesday, July 6th, 2005, Kassie Welch, an 18-year
veteran of the real estate industry, answered the questions of
NataliePace.com subscribers, giving advice on many matters, including
how to buy a home with NO MONEY DOWN, creative ideas when you
think you can't afford anything and how to what to do with a trailer
home on PCH that no bank will finance!

NataliePace.com:
Is it better to pay off your mortgage as quickly as possible?
I
don't believe that it's always best to pay off your house. Many
people who do that end up being house rich and cash poor.
So, how
do you choose between the many options that are out there for
payment options?
You
first decide how long you will realistically be in your home,
how much risk you're willing to take and then choose the length
of mortgage that best meets your needs. As far as making additional
principal reductions, I honestly feel that having other investments,
ones that are more liquid as well as diversified, is a better
choice.
I don't
really trust the stock market, after 2000, and believe it or not,
even my bonds gave me trouble last yearÉ
That's
when having a financial advisor is priceless. I am not licensed/equipped
to give other financial advice as to specific investments. As
a Mortgage Financial Consultant, I assist people in the best financing
option for their home.
I'm new
to this, but I've heard that you don't have to have a big down
payment anymore. Is that true?
Down
payments are not necessary any longer to purchase a home. It is
not uncommon for someone to buy with 100%, even 103% to cover
closing costs or 107% financing to cover closing costs as well
as pay down/off debt.
Oh! So
what's the catch? Does my credit have to be impeccable and my
job pretty high paying?
There's
really no catch. Many lenders make 100% financing loans with interest
rates that aren't much higher than traditional financing, if you
have good credit and a steady work history. And there are even
stated income/stated asset 100% financing loans too, however those
rates tend to be pricey to compensate for the risk the lender
is taking.
What's
a "stated income/stated asset loan?" Is that one of
those "liar's" loans that I've been hearing about all
over the news?
A
stated income/stated asset loan means that the borrower did not
provide any proof of income or asset verification. Basically the
lending institution is making a loan based upon on the borrower's
word. Obviously these loans are riskier, which is why they're
more expensive. However, for some people, particularly those who
are self-employed, running a cash business, etc. it's the only
way they can qualify.
That sounds
incredible. Almost too good to be trueÉ
Many
people choose 100% financing, even with higher rates, to get started
in the market. If they wait until they save for a down payment,
oftentimes the market outpaces them, which means they can't save
as fast as the market increases. 100% financing is a great way
to leverage one's good income and credit. While a home is an excellent
investment, it's important to really want to own one too.
Can you
give me an idea of how expensive a place I can afford with $5,000
monthly take home?
Qualifying
for a home is based on gross income. Most lenders will allow you
to borrow between 40-50% of your gross monthly income for all
debts. This includes your principal, interest, taxes and insurance
on your home as well as other debts, installment loans, credit
cards, etc. Also, loan amounts and pricing are based off your
FICO scores, so it's difficult to give you off the cuff numbers
that would be accurate.
I'd just
like an idea of how much house I can get with $7500 grossÉ Ballpark.
To
really give you a quote, I need to know how much debt you have,
what the payments are, as well as your FICO score, or at least
a ballpark idea. $7500 a month translates into $3000 to $3750
a month of total obligations. From this number, you deduct your
monthly debt payments. Then you have an idea of what you can pay
for housing.
I've paid
off most of my debts. I have a student loan with about $1200,
an American Express that I pay off monthly and two VISAs (one
business and one personal). The monthly payments add up to about
$500. I have a car payment at $400/month. FICO is not good, from
the unemployment period that I went through a year and a half
ago, though all of the past debt has been paid off.
Good
job in paying off most of your debt. That's wonderful and something
to be very proud of. It sounds like your student loan may have
less than 7 payments. If that's the case, this debt and any other
installment with less than 7 payments, are not counted in your
debt-to-income ratio.
Without
the student loan, I just have the AMEX and the VISA, with the
other VISA being business. Does that hurt? I do have the car loan.
As
for the AMEX and the VISA accounts paid off monthly, a lender
will still count them into your ratios. You may want to stop using
those accounts a few months before you want to purchase so those
minimum payments aren't factored into what you can afford. The
car loan must be deducted from thee $3,000-$3750. Again, that's
the total amount a lender wants you to be obligated, 40-50%.
So, my
gross is $7500. My net is $5000. I have about $1000 in debt. Then
there are the monthly incidentals - cable, phone, insurance -
I really have no clue if I need to look at a $500,000 condo or
if I can look at a million dollar home, and rent out the room
to a roommate.
If
we deduct the $900, you can afford a housing payment between $2100-$2850.
The next question I'd ask is how long do you plan on being in
the property? If you want a 30-year fixed loan, you won't qualify
for much since the interest rate is highest. Also, are you willing
to go with an interest only loan?
I'd feel
better with a fixed, given that interest rates seem to be rising.
What do you recommend?
A
$500, 000 condo will cost you at least $2500 for just the loan
and will not include taxes (1.25% of the purchase price) and/or
insurance (.0035% of the loan amount) or Home Owner's Association
dues.
Yikes!
It doesn't look like I'll be able to afford ANYTHING! I live in
a rent-controlled place in West LA. I haven't even seen a condo
on the Westside for under $500,000 that didn't look like a tenement.
You
may want to consider buying a duplex with a friend. Leverage both
of your income to get something a bit nicer. I would also suggest
that you look at a shorter-term fixed rate mortgage, a hybrid,
which is fixed for 3, 5, 7, or 10 years before adjusting, assuming
that your income will more than likely increase and/or you will
be in your home for less than 30 years. Just so you know, in Los
Angeles County most stay in their first home for an average of
5 ý years. So having a 30-year fixed mortgage is often unnecessary.
Real estate
market. Boom or bust?
It
really depends on the housing market. In high-density areas, like
Manhattan and Los Angeles, homeowners are less vulnerable. It
would take quite a lot of distress sales or foreclosures to lower
the overall market.
Yes, but
with so many people using aggressive loans, like interest only
and variable, and interest rates rising and high gas prices and
inflation in other areas (medical care), isn't it likely that
a whole group of people might feel the pinch simultaneously? If
a lot of homes are on the market, and the market is flooded, and
the bank lending policies tighten up (due to more late pays and
foreclosures), isn't it conceivable that even high-density areas
could be affected dramatically? Also, we haven't addressed the
fact of natural disaster. I lost my home in Florida. That takes
the value down to land only in a matter of seconds, and what most
people don't realize is that the insurance companies don't insure
against hurricanes in hurricane zones.
There
is some speculation that in 2007 and again in 2009 we may see
some distress sales. In 2007, many 3-year fixed and, in 2009,
many 5-year fixed interest only loans will begin to mature resulting
in fully amortized payments as well as potential interest rate
increases. For those who overestimated their future income, they
may have trouble making the new payments, which could lead to
distress sales. It does, however, take quite a few distress sales
to affect an entire market, especially in high-density areas.
Many regulatory agencies are concerned and are encouraging lenders
to tighten their policies as a result.
As for natural
disasters, they can have an adverse affect on property values.
The riot in Los Angeles and then major earthquake a few years
later had a dramatic impact on housing. (The attached appreciation
chart shows prices that cover that time period.) Many people now
carry earthquake insurance as a result, which will hopefully protect
such an impact in the future. Owning a home does have a risk,
but life is full of risk as well. That's why I truly believe wanting
to be a homeowner is important, as well as viewing your home as
an investment.
Historical
Median Home Sales Prices in Los Angeles, California, 1982-2004
|
2004
|
394,000
|
1992
|
210,790
|
|
2003
|
358,710
|
1991
|
218,580
|
|
2002
|
295,150
|
1990
|
212,130
|
|
2001
|
249,070
|
1989
|
214,831
|
|
2000
|
215,900
|
1988
|
178,889
|
|
1999
|
198,980
|
1987
|
146,630
|
|
1998
|
191,700
|
1986
|
135,393
|
|
1997
|
176,517
|
1985
|
124,787
|
|
1996
|
172,886
|
1984
|
121,270
|
|
1995
|
179,900
|
1983
|
118,543
|
|
1994
|
189,170
|
1982
|
119,259
|
|
1993
|
195,430
|
|
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Source:
California Association of Realtors®, http://www.car.org
I have
a unique problem. I own a trailer on the Pacific Coast Highway.
I bought it at $120,000 and the one next door just sold for $350,000.
I'd like to pull some money out to put in a new mobile home, but
I can't find a bank to finance it. I mean the lot and the location
are prime, with a great full view of the Pacific Ocean, but the
trailer is a real junker.
I've
never had any success finding mobile home financing regardless
of the age of the trailer. Everyone I know who has ever owned
a mobile home had trouble selling it, and many times ended up
carrying paper to do so.
I had a
feeling you'd say that. Do I have any options?
I
wish I had some advice for you, but I honestly don't. I've even
done Internet searches to try and help out one client, but was
never able to find financing. Your best bet would be to find someone
to make a private loan to you. They may be interested in loaning
you money against your trailer if you pay a higher return on the
money than a bank or other investments.
The Pacific
Coast Highway is a unique locale, very different from most mobile
home living. What does it mean to "carry papers?"
Carrying
paper means that when someone sells a property, they make a new
loan to the buyer. For example, they would give you $175,000 (as
I recall, that's what you owe) or more and then you would make
a mortgage for the purchase price difference. Then you would be
repaid in monthly installments based on the agreement you made.
So I could
sell my home and buy something else as an option?
Yes.
Kassie,
I noticed that you mentioned a lot about paying off debt in your
article. My question is - and this is for a friend - what if you
have been buried by your debts, and you are just now in a position
to start paying them off? Do you pay off everything and try to
get the record clean, or do you establish a payment plan with
the companies? This person had all of this go to collection. He
had an extended period of unemployment, when technology busted.
I
recommend that people do some reading up on credit before doing
anything. FICO scores aren't so cut and dry, so paying everything
off may not have the positive effect your friend is hoping for.
I'd have to review your friend's credit report to give specific
advise as to raising their FICO score.
You don't
have to have a perfect FICO score to buy a house. It may cost
you a little more. The important thing is that all payments are
made on time. Then your friend can review his credit and determine
the best way to pay things down or off. Obviously higher interest
rate accounts are the best targets. Also, FICO scores are affected
by debt distribution. For example, its better having two $5,000
credit cards, than one maxed out at $10,000.
Join Kassie
Welch in the NataliePace.com chat room on Wednesday, August 17th
at 8:45 a.m. PST. Find out how you can become a homeowner with
no money down! It's never been easier to own your own place than
it is now. (Subscribers only.)
Kassie Welch
is a Mortgage Financial Consultant with United Pacific Mortgage
and a lecturer on First Time Home Buying and 100% financing. Kassie,
an eighteen-year veteran of the real estate finance industry,
will be having a First Time Home Buyer seminar in Los Angeles,
California, on Saturday, September 10th. Contact Ms.
Welch if you'd like to receive her monthly newsletter and for
more information on upcoming seminars at www.dreamhomeownership.com.

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The
Eastern European Renaissance.
By
Natalie Pace
Article
and Stock Report Card

The
Castle in Bratislava, Slovakia ---- Photo credit: European Commission
---- Click for more photos of Slovakia
We hear
a lot about China, but who knew that Egypt was the hottest equity
market in 2004? (See Exhibit 1 below). What you'll also notice
about this chart is that there is a lot of action going on in
Eastern Europe.
Exhibit
1: World Equity Markets Returns in 2004
(Source:
The Milken Institute)
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Country
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Returns
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Egypt
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122%
|
|
Colombia
|
120%
|
|
Hungary
|
80%
|
|
Czech
Republic
|
79%
|
|
Austria
|
70%
|
When markets
heat up that's when you just want to be there.
There's a
joke (true) that you could have thrown a dart at a wall full of
stocks in 1999 and made money. That was pretty much the case in
2002 for Chinese stocks (particularly those traded on the Hong
Kong, Singapore and Taiwan stock exchange). This year's Cinderella
story may well emerge from the war-torn region of 1990's headlines
- Eastern Europe.
When a country,
region or sector heats up, it's like soaking up the sun on a Hawaiian
beach. If you want a tan, all you have to do is fly there and
walk outside. With that in mind, NataliePace.com is paying particular
attention to the region of the world that was mentioned time and
again with affection at the Milken Economic Global Conference
- Eastern Europe. It's a fairly new investment vehicle, with infrastructure
and rebuilding after the Bosnian War really kicking in now. But
the sunny seaside of Croatia is just as sought after in Europe,
as California is here in the states, and the Eastern European
pro-growth initiatives are attracting corporate capital, manufacturing
and offices to their shores.
 |
The
production line for Volkswagen Polo cars
at Volkswagen Slovakia
Photo credit: European Commission
Click for more photos of Slovakia |
With
the Bosnian War behind them, there's a lot to love about this
wonderful region that is rebuilding with pro-growth, state of
the art, paperless, flat tax governments. Companies are attracted
to well-educated employees with a strong work ethic, who are available
at a bargain by Western European standards. Eastern Europe, in
economist Marc Miles' words, "has been to the abyss."
They have nowhere to go, barring another horrific war, but up.
Investors,
who like first-mover advantage, might start with a few funds that
are focused on Eastern Europe. There aren't many, and it is important
to look at the holdings and distribution by country to ensure
that you aren't ending up in the stagnant regions of Western
Europe, particularly France and Germany. All Europe is not created
equal these days!
Rest assured
that NataliePace.com is not content with just these funds, and will be
turning over a few more ideas in future ezines. But, we were surprised
to see the growth, management, transparency, disclosure and professionalism
of two funds listed in the Report Card below - namely Vanguard's
EUROX and T. Rowe Price's TREMX and have added them to our list
of Hot Stocks.
While the
respected economist Marc Miles (see his Q&A in this month's
ezine), would focus on Slovakia, Estonia and Slovenia and stay
away from Russia, it's difficult finding a fund that excludes
Eastern Europe's most famous country. That may change as the popularity
of this developing region starts commanding more headlines. What's
the harm of getting in early at a reasonable price? Consider carefully
and be conservative with any investment in Russia, particularly
now in a time that has generously been called "restructuring,"
and aggressively been named "lawless." For more information
on this region and more, read "Eastern Europe Rocks, Western
Europe Stumbles, China Moves To Hong Kong, While the U.S. Stares
Into the Abyss. 101 Things You Need To Know About Investing in
all 4 Global Hot Spots."
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Fund
Price
7.27.05
Gains 1-year
|
Holdings
|
Comments
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ADRU
BLDRS
Europe 100 ADR Index Fund
$68.24
+17%
|
Top
10 Holdings
BP
PLC (England)
HSBC
Holdings PLC (England?)
Vodafone
Group PLC (England)
GlaxoSmithKline
PLC (England)
Total
S.A. (France)
Royal
Dutch Petroleum (NL)
Novartis
AG (Switzerland)
Shell
Transport and Trading Co PLC (England)
Sanofi-Aventis
(France)
UBS
AGTo
10 Index Sectors
- Oil
& Gas Producers
- Banks
- Pharmaceuticals
& Biotechnology
- Fixed
Line Telecommunications
- Technology
Hardware & Equipment
- Mobile
Telecommunications
- Food
Producers
- Gas,
Water & Multiutilities
- Mining
- Media
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Old
Europe. Limited work week. Month long vacations. Stagnant
growth, especially in France.
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EUROX
Vanguard
$33.87
+47.11%
|
Russia 33.6%
Hungary 14.9%
Turkey 14.5%
Poland 13.6%
Czech
Republic 13.2%
Energy 20.88%
Financial
Svcs 33.18%
Telecommunications 33.51%
Utilities 5.51%
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Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries,
in the right, growing sectors. Easy to access information,
attention to detail on site, indicates attention to detail
in management. We're in.
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MSUAX
Morgan
Stanley
$22.99
+32.05%
|
United
Kingdom 45.88%
Netherlands
13.40%
France
11.65%
Spain
6.24%
Italy
5.69%
|
Old
Europe. Limited work week. Month long vacations. Stagnant
growth.
|
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Pesix
PIMCO
European StocksPLUS TR Strat Inst (PESIX)
$10.91
+30.87%
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53.67%
cash
1.91%
stocks
37.3%
bonds
7.12%
other
At
PIMCO, cash is defined as anything that has a duration (bond's
sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations) less than 1 year.
Leave
it to PIMCO to produce good returns with a conservative
fund.
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PIMCO's
"cash" is net cash and cash equivalents. This
is an actively managed fund with respected directors, including
Bill Gross. Many successful money managers have a strong
position in cash right now. With PESIX, your cash is at
risk. For less risk, consider a money market.
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RNE
Morgan
Stanley Eastern Europe Fund
Closed-end
$29.25
+14%
|
Requested
holdings on 7.24.05. Never heard back.
|
MS
may be more concerned with the upheaval in the executive
suite than in great products and services. Information on
RNE was impossible to find, whereas Vanguard's holdings
were transparent.
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TREMX
$20.72
+68.40%
|
Russia 26.3%
Egypt 23.2%
Turkey 21.8%
Israel 10.5%
Hungary 6.5%
Business
Svcs 1.82%
Consumer
Goods 0.90%
Consumer
Svcs 2.13%
Energy 15.07%
Financial
Svcs 42.55%
Hardware 2.61%
Healthcare
Svcs 0.00%
Industrial
Materials 14.18%
Media 3.25%
Software 3.32%
Telecom 14.17%
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This
T. Rowe Price fund seems to be in the right countries, and,
within those countries, in the right, growing sectors. Easy
to access information, attention to detail on site, indicates
attention to detail in management. We're in.
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For more
information on these and other stocks, go to www.NataliePace.com.
Enter the symbol or the name of the company in the Research Now
box.

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Eastern
Europe Rocks, Western Europe Stumbles, China Moves To Hong Kong,
While the U.S. Stares Into the Abyss.
By
Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com
101
Things You Need To Know About Investing in all 4 Global Hot Spots.
Q&A
with Marc A. Miles, Ph.D., the Director of the Center for International
Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation, with a decidedly
bearish
outlook on the U.S. economy.
 |
Marc
A Miles, Ph.D.
|
At the Milken
Institute's Global Conference in April, economists were still sour
on Western European countries, but clearly excited about the potential
of Eastern Europe. What countries interest you most right now?
I'm looking at the globe, at 161 countries; we evaluate them
on the degree to which their markets are open, free of barriers.
We measure the degree to which the people are able to pursue their
dreams. I'm less interested in countries where governments put up
road blocks, where you don't have property rights, where inflation
or tax rates are high, or there are ten levels of permits to attain
before you can start a business. Those are barriers to pursuing
your dreams. The big story right now is Eastern Europe.
What sets
Eastern Europe apart from the other 161 countries?
They have gone to edge of the big government, highly regulated
abyss and looked down. They didn't like what they saw. They are
moving very quickly in the opposite direction. We continue to
move slowly towards the abyss, while they are moving in the other
direction.
That's
a bold statement. Before we examine how the U.S. is doing, tell
us what Eastern Europe is doing right economically speaking.
They are privatizing social security in countries like Slovakia
and Bulgaria. There is a revolution going on in terms of taxes.
In this country, we talk about simplifying taxes and making it
fairer and easier to fill out. They're not talking. They are doing.
Slovakia has a 19% flat tax, down from 38%. In fact, there is
competition among the Eastern European countries as to who can
have the lowest flat tax.
So simplifying
taxes is very pro-growth. What else is stimulating the economies
there?
There are other interesting things. Estonia is becoming the
first paperless government. You don't have to go to a government
office to fill out forms. Anything you need, you just go to the
Internet and fill it out. In these countries, you fill out your
income tax in five minutes.
Before
we all rush to move there, how is the computer penetration rate?
Are there enough computers for the people, and are we talking
waiting twenty minutes for the dial-up connection to go through,
or does the country have high-speed connections?
In
all of these countries, they have personal computers. I was in
Bulgaria and Slovakia a few months ago. The hotels have high-speed
Internet connections. Everyone has PCs. They are plugged into
the world.
Insert
photo of the A
street vendor has a conversation on a mobile phone.. (it is located
in the second row, left hand side.)
 |
A street
vendo has a conversation on a mobile phone in Bratislava,
Slovakia.
Photo credit: European Commission
Click for more photos of Slovakia.
|
Isn't
that pretty costly infrastructure, especially for countries that
are rebuilding after a long period of war and destruction?
Part
of the reason there is investment in capital equipment is that
they have inflation under control. Bulgaria is not a member of
the European Union, but it has a currency board that pegs its
currency to the Euro. So does Slovakia. That has gotten rid of
inflation and makes capital investment much more attractive.
What industries
are alive in Eastern Europe?
Eastern
Europe is attracting investment away from Western European countries.
There are workers in West Germany who have given up their 35-hour
work week in order to keep their employers from moving to Slovakia.
You have people with a reasonable level of education in Eastern
Europe who will work for lower wages.
According
to the Milken Institute, Estonia has 31% of its labor force with
tertiary education (post-graduate degrees), while Slovenia and
Croatia have 17%. Those are not bad statistics.
And
the current and expected future tax rates are more favorable,
while regulation is less. This is creating competition with the
Western European countries. Germany, for a period, looked like
it was going to respond to that competition. Chancellor Gerhard
Schröder proposed cutting corporate tax rates to 19%, from
26%, but that fell apart when it became clear that the ruling
party in Germany was not going to win the elections.
He's getting
a run for leadership from the conservative challenger Angela MerkelÉ
But
will she carry through on that tax rate cut? Eastern Europe is
creating a whole new set of forces and competition in the world.
A lot of people are unaware of what's happening. I go to Central
America and South America and they are still raising their tax
rates. That's swimming upstream again the global trend that is
going the other way. You are making yourself uncompetitive. Western
Europe is feeling the pinch, as is the U.S. I think it will have
a profound effect, not only throughout Europe, but also in the
West.
So, why
couldn't Chancellor Schröder effect change, even in the tax
structure? You'd think going from 26% to 19% corporate taxes would
be a popular notion.
The
remnants of the failed 20th Century idealism remain
a formidable force. When I was in France, the people there were
talking about how the European Constitution has been defeated,
and also talking about how change does not occur through an election
or some easy, simple way. It has always occurred through Revolution,
and they are afraid that right now they may be on the verge of
some sort of revolution. They are not sure what it is. My guess
is that it is going to be an economic revolution, where they realize
they are not the leaders in Europe anymore. Their 35-hour work
week is not where the future is in Europe. They will have to start
moving in the other direction.
Longer
work hours are probably difficult to get staff to buy, just as
cutting back on salaries, pension plans and health care has been
a problem for the ailing auto and airline industries here in the
U.S. You've mentioned Slovakia, Estonia and Bulgaria, but most
of the Eastern European mutual and index funds are heavily invested
in Russia.
One
thing I would caution is to be careful which country you are investing
in. You need to look for the level of corruption in the country.
Corruption is another form of taxation that raises the cost of
doing business. It's usually a sign of poor property rights, among
other things. I wouldn't invest blindly in Eastern Europe. I would
be reluctant to invest in Russia. Even though Russia has adopted
a 13% flat tax, there's just an era of lawlessness going on there.
I would be reluctant to put my capital there. I wouldn't be sure
that I could keep it and get a fair return.
China was
the Cinderella story of the past five years. Do you find China
to be as attractive in 2005 as it was in 2002?
There's
certainly a lack of respect for intellectual property rights in
China. Warner Brothers tried releasing the DVD of The Sisterhood
of the Traveling Pants in China the same day it was being
released in the U.S. in order to try and head off the sales of
pirated copies of the DVD. It's not a perfect solution. I'm actually
quite bullish for China. If you look at the Southern provinces,
there is a lot of wealth being created. A year ago, the Chinese
put a phrase about property rights into their constitution, which
is quite a remarkable thing for a communist government. We don't
know how it will be enforced. I just note that it is a leap. I
think that's where China is trying to go.
So the
explosive growth we've seen, in Gross Domestic Product, in the
cities, in modernization, can continue apace?
When
China took over Hong Kong in 1997, they talked about one country
one system within 50 years. I wondered, as an economist, whether
they were going to be more like Hong Kong or mainland. We already
have the answer. The mainland is becoming more and more like Hong
Kong. It may not take 50 years.
Let's head
back to your statement that the U.S. is headed toward the abyss.
At 10,651.18 (on 7.22.05), the Dow is just 1,600 points
off of its historic high of 11,722, set on January 14, 2000. Investors
are reasonably confident in the markets these days. On the other
hand, statistics would indicate that we are living on borrowed
time, literally. Slovenia and Slovakia have bank assets running
at 80% and 75% of GDP, with no domestic debt, while the U.S.'s
domestic debt is at 160% GDP. The U.S. equity market capitalization
is at 130% GDP, while Slovenia's is 25% and Slovakia's is 10%.
(Source: The Milken Institute)
One point is to look at the real purchasing power of the Dow.
The last time the Dow was at that historic high, the dollar was
worth much more in terms of purchasing power. So be careful about
simply looking at the nominal number.
Moreover,
part of the problem in the U.S. is that we are increasing regulation
so much that we are forcing equity offshore. Look at Sarbanes-Oxley.
Sarbanes-Oxley was quickly pushed through Congress after Enron,
but everything that occurred at Enron was covered by the existing
law. What the Enron executives did was illegal, and they are being
prosecuted under laws that were existing at that time.
The argument
was that Sarbanes-Oxley would PREVENT Enron from occurring again.
What
they created was this huge oversight system that is making auditors
extremely rich, and putting artificial barriers within firms.
Whenever we create restrictions of that type, we raise the cost
of doing business. Anything that raises the cost of doing business,
reduces the amount of business. How about the recent Supreme Court
ruling about property rights? Can you believe that? Everybody
is aghast. They can take my house because they want to build a
shopping center. Someone today might think twice about buying
waterfront property, even though it's one of the fastest growing
areas. There would certainly be incentive for the government to
take waterfront property from households and turn it into a waterfront
development. In fact I hear that is already happening in Florida.
I don't
know a single person who was happy about that ruling.
When
I say we're moving toward the abyss, you begin to add all these
things up. The size of government keeps growing. There doesn't
seem to be anything holding it back.
It's interesting
that this is occurring under a party whose platform claims to
reduce the size of government.
It's
more a case of having one party controlling all branches of government.
If you look at the period when the government ran surpluses, it
was during that delightful period of gridlock. Now every bill
that goes through Congress is a Christmas tree bill.
I'll tell
you another gaping hole that I see, especially in the more mature
companies that are traded on the U.S. Equity markets - underfunded
pension plans. It's hard to make a case for investing in any company
that still has defined-benefit plans. That seems to be a large
part of the problem at General Motors and Ford, and has wiped
out the profitability of the network airline carriers.
Credit
Suisse First Boston* did a study of the S&P 500 in 2002, and
looked at unfunded liabilities. It was very clear which companies
had unfunded liabilities, and they were all older and unionized
corporations--airlines, auto, steel. Any company that started
after 1980 had no unfunded liability because they had 401ks. You
could see the writing on the wall at that point. We have about
10-11 trillion dollars in unfunded social security system. We
may have only between a quarter and a half trillion unfunded liabilities
in the private sector, but this may be even scarier. What is this
that United Airlines throws off its unfunded pension debt to the
government? Something is wrong here. The stockholders should be
the one to pay for it, not the taxpayers of America.
31
Companies With Projected Pension Benefit Obligations that Exceed
Equity Market Capitalizations
(Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, "the
Magic of Pension Accounting," 9.27.2002)
|
Allegheny
Technologies, Inc.
|
Goodyear
Tire & Rubber Co.
|
|
AMR
Corporation
|
Hercules
Inc.
|
|
Avaya
Inc.
|
Lucent
Technologies
|
|
Boeing
Co.
|
McDermott
Int'l Inc.
|
|
Boise
Cascade Corp.
|
Navistar
International
|
|
CMS
Energy Corp.
|
NCR
Corp.
|
|
Corning
Inc.
|
Pactiv
Corp.
|
|
Cummins
Inc.
|
PG&E
Corp.
|
|
Dana
Corp.
|
Qwest
Communication Intl.
|
|
Delphi
Corp.
|
TRW
Inc.
|
|
Delta
Air Lines
|
Unisys
Corp.
|
|
Dynegy
Inc.
|
United
States Steel Corp.
|
|
Ford
Motor Co.
|
Visteon
Corp.
|
|
General
Motors Corp.
|
Williams
Cos. Inc.
|
|
Georgia-Pacific
Corp.
|
Xerox
Corp.
|
|
Goodrich
Corp.
|
|
Jet Blue,
a company that launched its IPO in 2002, is one of the few profitable
airlines, with higher load factors and lower operating costs than
the perennial low-cost favorite, Southwest. Is it a significant
advantage to merely be the new kid on the block?
Innovation
tends to occur in small companies. Large companies are not innovative.
They get their innovation by buying small companies. The other
innovative force is competition, which brings me back to Eastern
Europe. Western Europe is going to require innovation. In the
early 1990s, the U.S. went through downsizing, when companies
had to get lean and mean. Western Europe is going to have to get
lean and mean in a different way. Governments are going to have
to get leaner and meaner.
Which brings
us full circle to one of the keys of the success in Estonia, Slovakia
and other Eastern European countries. As Mike Milken noted at
the Global Conference, "It's easier to build than to rebuild."
The
U.S. is at the point where we have to rebuild and it's not going
to be very pleasant.
Do you
think this will be a platform for the 2008 election? Flat taxes
that you can file in five minutes online? Perhaps Steve Forbes
should consider running again!
I
think it will be a platform for the next election, and Steve Forbes
certainly has been in the forefront of this issue. Bush did cut
tax rates. He has been pushing for free trade agreements. He has
made social security an issue that people have to deal with. Nobody
has ever been able to push it this far. So, you can see the beginnings
of the change occurring now. You'll know we're in change when
we get rid of the Department of Agriculture, which oversees only
2% of the economy, and the Department of Commerce. Why do we have
a Department of Agriculture? The peak of agriculture was 150 years
ago in the U.S.!
Interesting
premise. We'll see if the candidates take up the challenge that
you've outlined to make the U.S. more competitive on the world
stage, and if Steve Forbes is a serious contender in 2008, as
a result of a world trend toward flat taxes and paperless governments.
Marc Miles
is a former tenured professor, money manager advisor, and author
of professional articles, several books and articles in the Wall
Street Journal and New York Times. Currently he is Director,
The Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage
Foundation, and editor of the annual Index of Economic Freedom.
Click to order The
Road to Prosperity: The 21st Century Approach to Economic Development
and/or 2005
Index of Economic Freedom.
Any views
or opinions presented in this Q&A are solely those of Marc
Miles and do not necessarily represent those of The Heritage Foundation
or NataliePace.com.

|
|
Business
Tip:
By
Chellie Campbell
Send
Out Ships.
"The
vision must be followed by the venture. It is not enough to stare
up the stepsÑwe must step up the stairs."ÑVance Havner
 |
|
Chellie
Campbell
|
You've set up a home-based business. You have a product or service
you love, and want to provide it for people for pay, in order to
bring money into your life. You've gotten your business license,
your business cards, stationary, inventoryÑall the tools of your
trade. But it is not enough. Now you have to get customers! How
do you do it? You have to reach out to connect with people. I call
this "Sending Out Ships."
Let
me explain my analogy:
In
the nineteenth century, the merchants in London built grand, tall-masted
sailing ships. It would take many months, sometimes years, to
build them. Then they would hire a crew, outfit the ship and store
provisions for the long sea voyage. One fine day, the ship would
weigh anchor, hoist her sails, and sail out of London harbor,
on her way to visit foreign ports and trade for gold, jewels,
silks, and spices. The trip would take many monthsÑoften yearsÑand
there were no communication lines open then: No ship-to-shore
radio, no telegraph, no cellular telephones. Once the ship had
sailed, the merchant could do nothing more; only wait for that
future day when the ship would return, sailing into London harbor
laden with treasure. On that day, the merchant's fortune was made.
And that's where the expression, "I'm waiting for my ship
to come in," comes from.
But some people
are going down to the dock, waiting for their ship to come inÑbut
they haven't sent any out! If you want the fortune, your responsibility
each day is to send out some ships. And you had better send out
more than one, because stuff happens to ships: One runs aground
just outside of the harbor. Another sinks in a hurricane. A few
get commandeered by pirates. The whirlpool gets one, and on the
next one there's a mutiny, and they sail off to Pitcairn Island
and aren't heard from for another twenty years. Then, of course,
there's the one that hits the iceberg! Once you send the ship
out, it's out of your control. You are only in charge of sending
it out, not when it comes in.
When you get
into the habit of sending ships out on a daily basis, even if
you know some ships aren't going to make it back home, you are
still confident and optimistic because you know you have a whole
fleet sailing out there. It creates a positive expectation that
ships are going to be sailing in, docking at your pier and unloading
riches for you any minute. Positive energy shines from you. You
feel good about yourself because you've been doing what it takes
to succeed. This is what Tony Robbins, in his book, Awaken
the Giant Within, calls "massive, positive, constructive
action on a daily basis." (Although that sounds a little
too much like hard work to me.) I prefer the image of breaking
the champagne bottle and waving goodbye to a proud clipper ship
on a beautiful spring day as it sets forth on my behalf. And then
celebrating the ship's safe arrival with all my wealth.
Send those
ships out every day. Then prepare to unload your treasures!
Chellie
Campbell is the author of The
Wealthy Spirit: Daily Affirmations for Financial Stress Reduction,
which is just $11 on Overstock.com! (Great gift) She created
and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops on which
her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs throughout
the country. Her free e-newsletter is available at www.thewealthyspirit.com.
The
Financial Stress Reduction Workshop
Are you tired of having too much month at the end of the money?
Frustrated by not earning the money you know you deserve?
Do you want to start a business or grow one by getting more
clients who praise you and pay you? Award-winning Speaker/Author
Chellie Campbell will show you how to easily and effortlessly
create more money, eliminate debt, and enjoy life!
Special
Savings on August workshops!
For a limited time only, Chellie is offering a special for the
upcoming sessions of the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops
beginning in August: Enroll with a friend and you will receive
the reduced price for couples, which will save you $295 each.
If you have any questions about the program, please give
Chellie a call at 310-476-1622. Please feel free to forward this
to anyone you feel might have an interest.

|
|
Small
Caps, Biotechs and REITs:
By
Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC
Stock
Market and Industry Group Scorecard for the First Quarter of 2005.
In the
second quarter of 2005, the stock market remained on a seesaw,
but this time the seesaw went up. For the Nasdaq, this is the
seventh quarter in a row that it has reversed direction, making
this the longest period of investor confusion since we began keeping
track of quarterly returns in 1969. We'd love to see this streak
come to an end with a positive return in the third quarter, but
also recognize that summers are notoriously unpredictable when
it comes to stock prices.
 |
|
Paul
Woods, President & CEO
Odyssey Advisors, LLC
|
During the
quarter, yields on longer bonds declined and the rally in bonds
appeared to also set off a rally in stocks. While we're beginning
to wonder whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics has decided to
deal with inflation by not reporting it, the financial markets
appear to still be taking these statistics seriously. In the midst
of booming real estate prices, the folks at the Bureau of Labor
Statistics are probably the only ones in the world that think
the cost of shelter has gone DOWN in the last few years. Shelter
accounts for almost 1/3 of the Consumer Price Index and is based
upon rents for some unknown reason. Don't know what cities they're
looking at, but they want us to believe that rents have declined.
I am no longer certain what the CPI measures but am pretty
sure it isn't inflation. A good inflation report in May, slowing
economic growth, and the possibility that interest rate increases
by the Federal Reserve may be winding down, all combined to touch
off a rally in the financial markets during the quarter.
In the second
quarter of 2005, smaller companies generally outperformed larger
ones, value outperformed growth, and biotech and REITs (real estate
investment trusts) were the place to be. The stock market also
appeared to discount a slowdown in the economy as economically
sensitive stocks lagged the market. For reference, here's the
stock market and industry group scorecard for the first quarter
of 2005:
|
|
Symbol
|
|
6/30/05
|
Return
|
|
Dow Industrials
|
.DJIA
|
10,503.76
|
10,274.97
|
-2.18%
|
|
Nasdaq Composite
|
COMP
|
1,999.23
|
2,057.00
|
2.89%
|
|
S&P 500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,180.59
|
1,191.33
|
0.91%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
492.85
|
564.45
|
14.53%
|
|
REITs
|
VNQ
|
51.82
|
58.70
|
13.28%
|
|
Utilities
|
IXU
|
295.44
|
320.10
|
8.35%
|
|
Energy
|
IXE
|
430.36
|
445.97
|
3.63%
|
|
Financials
|
IXM
|
283.50
|
293.84
|
3.65%
|
|
Technology
|
IXT
|
197.09
|
200.64
|
1.80%
|
|
Health
Care
|
DRG
|
314.85
|
321.01
|
1.96%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
.SICSS
|
180.88
|
183.01
|
1.18%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
IXR
|
230.52
|
227.61
|
-1.26%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
IXY
|
332.72
|
328.37
|
-1.31%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
2,124.50
|
2,071.50
|
-2.49%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
IXI
|
304.84
|
294.23
|
-3.48%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
IXB
|
309.53
|
278.67
|
-9.97%
|
During the
second quarter, we also began tracking segments of the equity
market in addition to industry groups. Here's that scorecard:
|
|
Symbol
|
|
6/30/05
|
Return
|
|
REITs
|
VNQ
|
51.82
|
58.70
|
13.28%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
IJJ
|
63.62
|
66.76
|
4.94%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
IJS
|
58.99
|
61.63
|
4.48%
|
|
MidCap
|
IJH
|
65.74
|
68.50
|
4.20%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
IJR
|
52.95
|
55.02
|
3.91%
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
IJK
|
66.97
|
69.44
|
3.70%
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
IJT
|
105.35
|
109.00
|
3.46%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
IVE
|
60.95
|
62.34
|
2.28%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
IVV
|
117.82
|
119.11
|
1.09%
|
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
IVW
|
56.50
|
56.50
|
0.00%
|
In the fixed
income market, the yield curve continued to flatten with short
rates increasing and rates on longer bonds declining. While we
doubt that the Federal Reserve wants to see the yield curve become
inverted, they gave no signs of stopping the increases in short
term interest rates at their last meeting. Until yields rise to
a level that adequately compensates investors for the inflationary
risks in the economy, we're remaining cautious and emphasizing
quality and liquidity in our bond portfolios.
|
Current
Yield
|
3/31/05
|
6/30/05
|
%
Change
|
|
90
day Treasury Bills
|
2.79%
|
3.13%
|
12.2%
|
|
5 Year
Treasury Bonds
|
4.18%
|
3.72%
|
-11.0%
|
|
10
Year Treasury Bonds
|
4.50%
|
3.94%
|
-12.4%
|
Overall, we
continue to expect economic growth to slow a bit this year. The
higher cost of energy coupled with increasingly restrictive Fed
policy will probably produce less robust economic growth in 2005.
However, we see no signs of a recession on the horizon and can't
help noticing also that corporate earnings estimates continue
to be revised upward. Although stock market valuations are in
the middle of their historic range, common stocks are still significantly
undervalued relative to current interest rates. We continue to
expect stocks to have a below-average year, but bonds aren't setting
the bar very high and we still believe the odds are that stocks
will outperform bonds in 2005.
Paul Woods
is the President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in equities and fixed income.
He can be contacted at www.odysseyadvisors.com
or 310.568.4700.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright
© 2005 by Odyssey Advisors LLC

|
|
Top 10 Signs of a Bubblicious Housing Market.
By
Steve Dietrich, guest lecturer at the Anderson Graduate School
of Business, UCLA and Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com
Real estate,
real estate, real estate. How do we love thee? Let me count the
ways. You are the Venus of my budget, the equity goddess of my
ATM card. You've given me so much joie de vivre that not even
oil at $60 a barrel worries me. Yes, you are a dream come trueÑuntil
the property tax bill arrives.
Financial
innovation in the mortgage markets has made it possible for 69%
of working Americans to own their own homes (source: The Torto
Wheaton Research Group). If you think that Joe Kennedy is right
when he says it's time to get out when you hear stock tips from
your shoe shine boy, then 69% seems like a pretty high saturation
point, and it might be time to snuff out your dreams of becoming
a millionaire on speculative condominium projects. If you believe
in Thomas More's Utopia or Voltaire's El Dorado, which
is what the housing market feels like these days, then welcome
home.
We are living
in a first-ever historical phenomenon, which means that economists
will figure out what to make of it, and what we should have done
differently, a few years after the bubble bursts. You'd have to
be pretty optimistic to think that loose lending policies, 1%
savings rates and no-down, interest only and liar's loans aren't
a recipe for disaster in the hands of brokers who are paid on
commission. Think of rolling black outs in California, when Enron
energy brokers were controlling that market, and the subsequent
billion-dollar bankruptcy of Bush buddy, Kenneth Lay, and Enron,
for an example of what happens when economic innovation is directed
by commission paid brokers, who have very little regulation (or
sense beyond their salary) reining them in. Add the risk soup
of spiking oil prices, super-sized property taxes, rising interest
rates and inflation, alongside 1% personal savings, and you have
a very volatile dinner on your plate.
Will it happen
tomorrow or in 2007? As Paul Woods points out, "Keep in mind
that it took about five years from the time folks started yelling
about a bubble in stock prices before stocks went south. I've
only been hearing about a bubble in real estate for the last two
to three years." Also keep in mind that real estate varies
widely by region, and can soar quickly if a new industry moves
into town or sink overnight in a natural disaster. Any homeowner
who has lost property in an earthquake, hurricane, tornado, fire,
flood, mudslide or riot understands that loss intimately, with
indelible scars on the soul. Copper mining communities have just
recently been infused with new life, after a long period of low
copper prices, and are undoubtedly at the beginning of a growth
cycle.
No one knows
exactly when imbalances correct themselves, but with something
as illiquid as real estate, you don't want to wait until the storm
is on the horizon before you climb down from Mt. Everest. And
we're not the only ones shouting that the storm is on the horizon.
How do we
know the U.S. (in many regions) has an overvalued housing market?
24 hours in a typical day is all the evidence you need!
7:00
a.m. Your cappuccino barista tells you she is investing
in condos in Las Vegas
8:00
a.m. At the post office, you consider auctioning off kidneys
to make your property tax payment.
8:30
a.m. Reading NataliePace.com in the train on the way to work,
you discover that the statements by Greenspan and the Federal
Open Market Committee regarding the housing "bubble"
circle in and around themselves like the "tale of an
idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Read
the ÒWill Greenspan Pop the Housing BubbleÓ article for more
information.
9:00.
First meeting of the day. Your high school drinking buddies
(the ones who still work at Blockbuster) storm your office
and try to convince you to form a real estate investment club.
10:00.
Your real estate broker calls to convince you that Skid
Row is going through a renaissance and that more empty condos
will be filled in the next twelve months than have been filled
in the last 20 years.
10:30
One of your old drinking buddies puts no money down, finances
at 107%, pays interest only, lies to the bank about the money
he makes "coaching" business leaders (you were one
of the people he "coaches"), moves into a skanky
old condo (on Skid Row), and talks about being a millionaire
in under two years.
11:00.
Secretary brings in photos from Christmas Parties Past.
There was the gala in 1999, held at the Bel Air Hotel, when
everybody had made a million on NASDAQ. Party 2002, which
was held at the Holiday Day Inn at the Airport, shows a handful
of depressed survivors, milling about, talking about firing
their brokers. Christmas Party 2005 is going to be a tweener,
at the Hilton, but judging from the talk at the water cooler,
everyone this year is a real estate millionaire. Will Greenspan
crash the party in 2006? 2007?
Noon:
Lunch with Anderson Business School professor friend,
who reminds you that, in a falling market sellers accumulate
like casual players in a game of musical chairs. The
only difference is that 50% of the chairs are being removed
and a lot of people are going to end up on the floor.
2:00
Your espresso barista blathers on about how real estate
is foolproof investing these days. It always goes up. Land
is a limited resource. They're not making it anymore. You
start counting the number of fools in the room, virtually
everyone, who are circling open houses to visit on the weekend.
3:00
While looking up, "A fool and his money are soon
parted," on Google to see who coined the phrase (was
it Shakespeare?), you come across, "A fool and her money
are soon courted." Helen Rowland (1875-1950). How many
calls did you get from brokers -- mortgage, real estate, stock
- working on commission, today?
There is a
case to be made for getting the tax deduction (in the U.S.) of
owning your own home versus renting, which is pushing everyone
to want to buy these days. The question is, "What position
would you be in if the real estate market leveled off or went
down over the next 3-5 years?" Would you still be happy you
made your purchase? Would you wish that you had waited a few years
to buy, or will living in your own home give you immeasurable
joy, regardless of whether you owe more to the bank than your
home is worth?
May your choices
be well-informed decisions, not based upon headlines, hot tips,
hope and chasing money that has already been made in housing.
May your house be your home, a place of sanctuary and joy, that,
when properly researched, can also be a great investment.
"One
of the most important factors in successful real estate investing
is preserving the ability to sell at a time of your choosing.
Your long-term profit may be more dependent upon your ability
to select the time at which you sell the home rather than purchasing
the home at exactly the right time." Steve Dietrich

|
|
Will Greenspan Pop the Housing Bubble?
By
Natalie Pace
"Physics
has three laws that explain 99% of the phenomena, and economics
has 99 laws that explain 3% of the phenomena." Andrew Lo,
MIT professor
If the June
29th Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes
opened with the above phrase, everything written thereafter would
have made a lot more sense. Instead, however, there was a sentence
buried in the middle of the minutes, which was equally equivocal.
"Uncertainties regarding the nature and timing of the potential
correction of these imbalances complicated the assessment of the
intermediate-term prospects for the U.S. economy." Hmm. What
a complicated way to say, "Hmm."
What are "these
imbalances" that have the Committee so perplexed?
- Home
prices are at very high levels relative to incomes or rents.
- Federal
deficit is high
- Personal
savings are extremely low (down to 1%)
- Inflation
pressures are increasing
- Oil,
commodities and housing prices are skyrocketing
- Long-term
interest rates keep getting lower, while the Federal Funds
target rate keeps increasing, an "unusual" phenomenon.
Yield
Curve -Spread between 30 year Treasury and 3 month T-Bill

Source:
Milken Institute
There are
economic hot spots out in the U.S. economy, but since no one knows
when they'll blow, the Feds are sticking to their story of "removing
policy accommodation" by increasing the target rate 25 basis
points at each meeting, while at the same time promising to respond
to changes as needed. Don't think that the Feds and economists
aren't aware, however, that inversions of the yield curve (when
short-term rates are greater than long term rates, also called
negative yield curve) have preceded the last five U.S. recessions.
A second glance at the trend in 2005 (heading south fast) should
make anyone skeptical about 2006, and downright concerned about
2007, when the first wave of the 3-year hybrid mortgages will
have fully amortized payments due, as well as potential interest
rate increases.
What can they
do? The Feds have been tossing water on the housing market by
increasing the Fed Fund rate each quarter, but the mortgage, housing
and Treasury markets are hardly extinguishing. The committee members
posed many theories regarding the unusual behavior of the long-term
Treasury yields. Whether it's lack of confidence in the economy,
or confidence in the economy, or demand from foreign investors
(each theory was floated at the committee meeting), low long-term
rates continue to fuel the housing market, which has been on fire
in many regions throughout the U.S. for the last five years.
As long as
foreign investors are willing to buy T-bills and banks are willing
to provide 103%, 107%, interest-only and "liar's" loans
(where you pay a higher rate in exchange for not providing records
on your income) the demand for housing could, in theory, keep
pushing home prices up. And increasing home prices allow banks
to report a healthy loan-to-value ratio, which keeps the Federal
Open Market Committee from worrying too much, provided all these
new homebuyers keep making their payments on time.
But can the
American homeowner keep making their payments on time when fuel,
home furnishings, remodeling, materials, mortgage payments, property
taxes and food costs keep going up, while personal savings are
at just 1%? Veteran money managers like Paul Woods say, "There's
little doubt the government is lying about inflation; the actual
number is higher than reported." How many consumers are living
on borrowed money, hoping that oil, gas, food, property taxes,
etc. will go down soon, when there is little indication that they
will?
The Torto
Wheaton Research Group reports that homeownership has risen to
69% in the U.S., largely as a result of low interest rates and
loose lending policies to sub prime borrowers. Perhaps if salaries
go up, everyone will be able to afford their home and gas to the
grocery store, but higher labor costs would require corporations
to raise their prices, adding even more inflation, which is pretty
much what happened in the early Ô80s, when interest rates flew
into the upper teens and the real estate market crashed. This
scenario is something that the Feds are well aware of and are
trying to avoid. As Dr. Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman of the President's
Council of Economic Advisers, notes, "The Federal Reserve
attempted to contain the inflationary effects of the oil-price
shocks [in the Ô70s and Ô80s] by engineering sharp increases in
interest rates, actions which had the unfortunate side effect
of sharply slowing growth and raising unemployment, as in the
recessions that began in 1973 and 1981." (Source: Lecture
to Darton College, 10.21.2004)
There is froth,
if not explosives, in these "imbalances" in the U.S.
economy, but the Feds don't want to screw up again by raising
interest rates too fast and they are curious to see the results
of the real estate financial "innovation,"--ie. no down,
interest-only loans and liar loans that are helping Everyman buy
his own home. Why not give the economic innovations a shot at
working themselves out? According to the minutes, there is no
real upside to forcing a market correction at this time. So the
Governors of the Federal Reserve Board agreed that, "Given
the unavoidable uncertainties associated with judgments regarding
the appropriate level of and likely future movements in asset
prices, a strategy of responding more directly to possible mispricing
was seen as very unlikely to contribute, on balance, to the achievement
of the Committee's objectives over time."
When a $40,000/year
manager buys a $250,000 home, there is not much room for plumbing
problems and roofing leaks. Not to mention that in the hottest
housing markets in the U.S., up to 50% of the new loans are for
investments or second homes.
The members
of the Federal Open Market Committee are the first to admit that
the strategy of ignoring the economic imbalances at this time
are risky, and an ominous warning closed out the minutes. "The
members concurred that at this stage in the expansion, with margins
of slack resources narrowing and inflation somewhat higher, the
Committee needed to be particularly alert to signs of a further
increase in inflation. Such an increase could be particularly
problematic because it might impart upward momentum to inflation
expectations that would be costly to reverse." If people
start questioning the inflation numbers, according to veteran
money manager, Paul Woods, "yields on long-term bonds will
go up," which is why his firm is remaining cautious and emphasizing
quality and liquidity in their bond portfolios these days.
What happens
if long-term bond rates rise? "If mortgage rates were to
rise to 7.5 percent in the 4th quarter of 2005... housing prices
could fall by 15.5%. In this case, homeowners would lose roughly
3 years worth of price increases," according to Richard Rosen,
the Senior Economist and Economic Advisor at the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago.
How can you
protect yourself from explosive inflation that might be more than
your budget can bear? Reduce risk by reversing as many imbalances
as you can in your own portfolio.
- DON'T
RUSH OUT TO BUY a home where prices are at very high levels
relative to incomes or rents, and don't buy more home than
you can afford, even if the mortgage banker comes up with
an incredibly creative proposition. Learn the risks of being
"underwater" on your mortgage (where the value of
your home falls beneath the amount you owe). For more important
considerations, read "Buying Real Estate in Today's Market"
by Steve Dietrich, from the archived NataliePace.com ezine Volume
2, issue 7.
- ENCOURAGE
YOUR CONGRESSMAN TO rein in spending and reduce the Federal
deficit. (Note: this isn't a call to increase taxes, which
would tax the consumer wallet even further.)
- GET
LIQUID by increasing your personal savings. As Timothy
Middleton, MSN commentator, says, "The simplest way to
reduce risk in a portfolio is to hold a significant fraction
of it in cash. Money-market accounts have essentially zero
volatility."
- EXPECT
INFLATION pressures to keep increasing. Build more room
in your monthly budget, and don't buy a more expensive home,
car, vacation, etc. than you can afford on today's budget.
- EXPECT
OIL, commodities and interest rates to REMAIN at current
levels and possibly go higher. When interest rates rise, your
variable loan and credit card payments will, too. Lock in
fixed, favorable rates now and consider consolidating some
of your debt in a low-interest loan.
- BANK
ON Long-term interest rates going higher. Lock in your
fixed rate now, if you wish to ensure that your mortgage payments
remain low. Don't bank on being able to move in three years.
- INCREASE
LIQUIDITY. The equity that you have in your home is not
ready cash, unless you pull some out through a home equity
loan. Have enough available funds on hand to get through any
tough time that might arise.
- AVOID
real estate speculation where you are relying upon property
values to keep increasing at the rates we've seen over the
last five years.
- BE
CASH PREPARED for a worst-case scenario, like a health
problem, losing your job or a terrorist attack. This money
can earn bond-like returns in a money market with no risk,
and will afford you piece of mind. Many financial planners
call for six months of cash on hand, and Suze Orman recommends
dividing it up for varying maturation dates. That way you're
unlikely to need to withdraw early and get hit with a penalty
fees.
- UNDERSTAND
that if you have an interest only loan, or if you financed
103% or 107%, the value of your home will be LESS than what
you owe if the markets flatten out or fall. That could keep
you locked into your home and locked into your payments for
a lot longer than you had planned for. Would you be happy
living where you are for the next seven to ten years?
When you have
the Feds shrugging their shoulders, that's never a good sign.
Click to review the Minutes of the Federal
Open Market Committee from June 29-30, 2005.
To
ensure that you receive the most accurate, up-to-date information,
Join NataliePace.com NOW...

|
|
Summer
of Love on Wall Street:
By
Natalie Pace

Hot
News on Cool Stocks Boasts 11 Winners, 3 Lying Low and Only Two
in Negative (Buying?) Range.
(Note:
These are not buy/sell recommendations. Always consult a certified
financial professional before buying or selling stock.)
Mid-Month
Stats, Facts and Educational Information:
- Your
Vote Counts: Intermix (MIX), parent company of MySpace.com is
being purchased by News Corp. for $580M cash, or $12/share.
According to a press release issued on 7.18.05, the transaction
is expected to close in the 4th quarter of calendar 2005, subject
to certain customary conditions including approval of the Intermix
common and preferred stockholders. VantagePoint Venture Partners
has agreed to vote its shares, 22.4% of the outstanding shares,
in favor of the transaction. You have a voice in the matter
if you own Intermix stock, or even if you are just a registered
member of MySpace. DISNEY shareholders revolted against Eisner
in 2004, and he was out as Chairman that week, and is now no
longer CEO. If you Like MySpace and don't like Murdoch, you'll
have the opportunity to JUST SAY NO when the voting ballots
are issued to shareholders. If you like MySpace and Murdoch,
you'll also have the opportunity to vote FOR the transaction.
Your voice and your vote DO COUNT. Also, rest assured that the
MySpace founders and execs will listen to the 22 million people
who have made the company what it is. This is why capitalism
and democracy get the blood flowing! Your voice does count and
your vote can change the course of history!
- Portfolio
Diversification. We've been harping on all of the risks
in the markets these days (all of them - real estate, stocks
and bonds), encouraging professionals to save more (personal
savings ratios are down to a dismal 1%) and get liquid. A starting
point for portfolio diversification is to have a percentage
equal to your age in SAFE investments.
- Semi-Annual
Meetings with your Financial Planner. Why not meet with
her this summer, while things are relatively calm and everyone
else is on vacation? Take in all your favorite strategies from
NataliePace.com and other top-performing money pundits.
- TipsTraders.com
has ranked me at the top of over 690 stock pickers. Learn
my strategies firsthand by registering for The Money Show on
August 8-11, in Washington D.C. Go to the Calendar section of
www.NataliePace.com for
more information and links. See you there! Learn great tips,
which have resulted in over 70%, ANNUALIZED gains (EVERY YEAR)
seen by the companies featured in NataliePace.com.
- Cash
is King. Kelley Wright, the #1 stock newsletter publisher
in the US, has 50% of his portfolio in cash right now. Paul
Woods, another respected money manager and the CEO of Odyssey
Advisors, is "cautious" and focusing on liquidity
(cash). In 2000, cash was the top-performing asset, and with
rising interest rates, you can ensure bond-like returns with
cash (from interest), at no risk. Additionally, liquidity allows
you to buy in on opportunity. Patience, planning and a sound
strategy always pay off for the sophisticated investor.
- Dead
Hot Summer. We're heading into the weaker season - summer
doldrums, traditionally not a great time to buy anything but
shorts or sell anything but mojitos.
- Brokers:
It Pays to Pick a Good One. Risk tolerance, portfolio
diversification strategy and tax strategies are some of the
many services that a great financial planner will provide you
with. For tips on finding your perfect partner, read the article
online at www.NataliePace.com, in
the archives, Volume 2, issue 4.
- Breakout
Countries. This month, NataliePace.com has focused on a new
hot spot on the globe, and no, it's not China. Read the Eastern
European Renaissance for this month's hot new stocks and report
card!
Bottom Line:
NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon
your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio
diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher
risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns.
As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm
on the stock market.
Full
disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own under the column
"NP OWNS?"
Stocks in our Watch For Good News Category
(Investors who "never pay retail": Note that
highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows. It may be
a good buying opportunity.)
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
7.27.05
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
Comments
|
|
Advanced
Micro Devices
RISK:
MEDIUM
Read
vol. 1, issue 52
Memory
Products Group lost $90 million
With
sales down 31% from a year ago, 2Q.
|
No
|
AMD
|
$11.96
|
$20.10
|
$24.95
$10.76
|
$68%
|
AMD
beat earnings expectations on 7.14.05. Intel reports on
Tuesday, 7.19.05, after the closing bell. AMD's insiders,
directors, are buying at $14.00-$15.00. Increased demand
for microprocessors from AMD server and mobile processors
customers. Per AMD, sales are strong in NA and China. AMD
filed an antitrust suit against Intel on 6.28.05. Green
company. New Austin, TX employee campus allows AMD to "improve
efficiency, reduce employee commute miles, and create a
world-class AMD Austin campus." AMD sponsored the solar
car competition this year. Spansion, AMD/Fujitsu's Flash
Memory venture, filed a reg. statement with the SEC on 4.13.05,
to spin off Memory Group in an IPOÉ AMD is no longer issuing
forward guidance for the Memory Group, as a result.
|
|
Bioteq
Environmental Technologies
VERY
HIGH RISK
Penny
Stock in a great sector. If your stomach is lined with steel,
this could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk bet.
|
NO
|
TSX:
BQE
|
$.80
|
$.89
|
$.95
$.66
|
+11%
|
Water
treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water
in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Breakwater Resources,
Falconbridge, and
Phelps
Dodge. According to the CEO, Brad Marchant, Bioteq will
help
PD recover 2 million pounds of copper per-year in Southern
AZ operations. BioteQ was selected by Summit
County
Open Space and Trails Department and the Town of Breckenridge
in Colorado to provide its technology to treat water from
the Wellington Oro Mine on 6.14.05. This company is only
trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Anthony Kana,
one of the founding directors retired in June. Profitable
4th Q 2004 and 1Q 2005, but expects a "small
loss" for 2Q 2005.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
--
|
$33.87
$23.02
|
--
|
See
the "European Renaissance" article and stock report
in this month's ezine.
|
|
Intermix
(owners
of MySpace.com)
See
volume 2, issue 4 for a feature article
|
No
|
MIX
|
$7.49
|
$11.67
|
11.74
.51
|
+55.8%
|
News
Corp. is buying Intermix for $580M cash, according to the
AP, or $12/share. According to the Associated Press
and Eliot Spitzer spokesperson, Brad Maione, MIX has settled
with Spitzer for allegedly using spyware and adware. Revenue
grew +68% in the 4Q, ending 3.31.05, to $24.1 M, and $79
M for the full year total. Net income for the fiscal year
ended March 31, 2005 was $4.5 million, compared to a net
loss of $13.1 million in the prior year. We're in the $$.
Added to Russell 3000 and Russell MicroCap indices on 6.24.05.
|
|
ImClone
(makers
of Erbitux)
See
volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article
|
No
|
IMCL
|
$34.48
|
$34.54
|
87.24
29.51
|
Flat
|
The
current price is off -130% from the same time last year.
The news for what Erbitux is doing for ovarian cancer patients
could hardly be more impressive.
2Q
results were strong. Erbitux U.S. In-Market Quarterly Sales
Reached $97.8 Million, Up 12% Over the Prior Quarter, and
Up 37% Over the Second Quarter of 2004. Net income for the
second quarter of 2005 was $26.0 million compared with $24.3
million in the second quarter of last year. Discontinued
small-molecule research program with a charge of $6.2 M.
|
|
Jet
Blue
See
issue 46
RISK:
MEDIUM
Price
is at 52-week low.
Airline
sector is really out of favor, but JetBlue is a star.
|
No
|
JBLU
|
$20.92
|
$20.42
|
31.00
17.06
|
Flat
|
United
and US Airways have terminated their pension obligations.
Network carriers (United, American, Delta, Continental)
have lost $30 billion since 2001, while Jet Blue has 17
straight quarters of profitability. Delta's 2Q loss on 7.21
of $388 million brings losses to just under $10 billion
since early 2001. JetBlue uses self-directed 401ks instead
of pension. Southwest is doing well with oil hedging, more
than core biz strength. Southwest's hedges are looking to
weaken in 2006, per Reuters.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
HIGH
In
turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows.
|
NO
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$6.97
|
32.70
5.50
|
-31.8%
|
Problems
are many: SEC inquiry, layoffs, credit problems, delayed
financial filings and lawsuits, but donuts are still showing
up in the grocery stores tasting wonderful and consumers
still associate KKD as the king of delicious. Patience.
Turnarounds don't happen overnight. Missed the deadline
to file their 1Q earnings, which will reflect a "loss"
of unspecified amount. Douglas R. Muir, former senior
accounting mgmt with Oakwood Homes Inc, was named the company's
new chief accounting officer on 7.8.05. "success fee" with
turnaround specialists should be turned into the SEC on
7.31.05.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
The
Venetian, Sands Macao`
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$38.46
|
53.98
33.10
|
+3%
|
The
Venetian, The Palazzo, The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao.
97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Sands Macao earned
enough to pay off debt in one year. 2Q 2005 results will
be released on Wednesday, August 3, 2005. Time TBA at a
"later date."
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
Price
is trading near 52-week high. Volatile sector. Great future.
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$10.25
|
$20.64
|
$20.64
$7.18
|
+101%
|
Profit
almost doubled in the 1st quarter. Analysts were
looking for 4 cents/share. LifeCell turned in 7 cents/share.
Surgical and reconstructive products. Company raised 2005
guidance by 15% on 4.25.05, and then raised guidance again
on 7.25.05.. 2Q earnings were outstanding. $22.7 M in revenue,
compared with $15.1M one year ago, and $3.6 million in net
income, compared to $1.0 million one year ago.
|
|
Martha
Stewart Omniliving*
RISK:
MEDIUM
Volatile
price fluctuations, but once Martha enters limelight, her
stock may shine.
|
NO
|
MSO
|
$25.91
|
$27.65
|
$37.45
$8.25
|
+7%
|
Martha's
new reality TV show, with Survivor and The Apprentice
producer, Mark Burnett, is scheduled for Fall 2005. She
will also have a new daytime show. Sirius SR signed Martha
to a 4-year deal worth a reported $7.5 million/year. New
MSO exec, Susan Lyne is a veteran TV exec. Lyne says that
The number of ad pages at Martha Stewart Living is expected
to show a gain of 40% in 2Q. Martha was on the cover of
Vanity Fair this month. 'Martha's Rules' by Martha
Stewart to be Published by Rodale in October 2005. Expect
Martha mania by fall, and for company fortunes to start
turning with increased ads in magazine and licensing revs
from Martha's daytime show. www.marthastewart.com/ir.
Martha had her 1st revenue gains in 10 quarters.
2Q! 2005 revs were $46.0 million, compared to $44.1 million
one year ago, on increased advertising in the mag.
|
|
NetGear
RISK:
MEDIUM
Trading
in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$20.20
|
$21.08
$8.85
|
+62.6%
|
57%
of the total WLA market (Synergy Research Group). Wireless
connectivity for homeowners and small/med businesses. 1Q
Sales are up 23% this year over last, same quarter. BusinessWeek
named NTGR as one of its100 Hot Growth Companies. 2Q Earnings
call was on Thursday, July 28, 2005. Insiders bought $2.07
M at the $18.78 share price. Typically that is a good sign.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$5.60
|
$8.90
$3.90
|
+211%
|
NataliePace.com
Company of the Year 2004 (archived edition 44). 1Q revenue
was up 72.6% over same time last year. Director Michael
Ovitz purchased 3/4 of a million in May, at $4.90. GAAP
net loss for the quarter was approximately $5.1 million
or $(0.05) per share and included non-cash charges of approximately
$2.0 million relating to the acquisition of Rendition Networks.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
Partner
of Genentech (DNA)
|
YES
|
OSIP
|
$63.59
|
$43.98
|
98.70
30.46
|
-30.8%
|
Genetic
based "cancer pill." 1st and only of
its kind. FDA-Approved for lung cancer last November. FDA
application filed to use Tarceva for pancreatic cancer after
Phase III results showed improved survivability. Net revenue
for the 2nd full quarter of Tarceva was $34.6
M, compared to $11.2 M on year ago. Total net sales of Tarceva
was $70.2M, +47% on 1st Q sales.Net loss was
$24.5M, trimmed sharply from last year's ! loss of $47.3M.
Canadian regulators approved OSIP's Tarceva drug on 7.13.05
as a treatment for advanced or spreading lung cancer in
patients who have not responded to chemotherapy. European
approval is expected in the coming months. Switzerland approved
Tarceva in March 2005.
|
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
NO
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$131.80
|
143.95
84.53
|
+47%
|
Metals
demand is huge; supply is limited. RTP bought back 8.7%
of stock as of 5.05, to the tune of US$780 million, and
plans to buyback up to $1.5 billion in 2005 and 2006. Analysts
say pressure on price should continue on high demand in
China and Asia. Increased its dividend by 20 per cent to
77 US cents per share. Finds, processes and mines minerals:
copper, iron, coke (from coal), aluminum, titanium dioxide
and diamonds. Rio Tinto has been added to Jim Juback's 50
Best Stocks in the World List (eff. 9.05). Great press usually
means more buyers. Hang on.
|
|
Sirius
Satellite Radio
RISK:
MEDIUM
Growth
company.
Read
Vol. 2, issue 2 article.
|
NO
|
SIRI
|
$6.50
|
$6.97
|
$9.43
$2.01
|
+7.2%
|
CEO
Mel Karmazin bought $8.04 Mil at $5.36 range. Revenue was
up 413% in 2004 over 2003. Agreement with Sprint to offer
SIRI to wireless customers. SIRI's focus on content may
positively affect market share in coming quarters (over
XMSR), with Howard Stern, NFL, NHL and Martha Stewart. Stern
starts 01.06, just in time for Christmas! 2Q 2005 results
will be announced on 8.2.05.
|
|
SONY
See
issue 43.
RISK:
LOW
Value:
Trading 75% beneath March 2000 high. Sony sales are double
market cap, $69.7 B to
$36.33
B.
|
No
|
SNE
|
$34.74
|
$34.15
|
$43.67
$32.35
|
Flat
|
Over
3.5 million PS Portables sold in Japan and US since Dec.
PS3 to be released in Spring 2006. Upcoming films include:
Rent (11.05) and the Da Vinci Code (5.06), starring Tom
Hanks and filmed by Ron Howard and Brian Grazer, Academy
Award winners for A Beautiful Mind. Sony is recalling about
16,000 liquid-crystal-display televisions sold only in Japan
that may cause electric shock. Adding web browser to PSPs.
|
|
Sunoco
Read
vol. 1, issue. 51
Hope
you bought at $69.00!
|
NO
|
SUN
|
$69.00
|
$123.31
|
$123.31
$58.26
|
+79%
|
Oil
should remain strong, while supply is constrained and demand
is outrageous. The Sunoco board also approved the buyback
of $500 million shares, bringing the repurchase option to
$674 million. Shares have been reduced by 23% over the last
5 years.
Spending
$275 million over 8 years to reduce SO2 and NO2 emissions
by 89% in PA, OK and OH. Fined, with Valero, $8.5 million
for violating clean air laws. Earnings Call on Wednesday,
August 3 at 3:00 p.m. ET to discuss its 2Q 2005 earnings
that will be released earlier that day. 2 for 1 stock split
will be distributed as a dividend on or about Aug. 1 to
shareholders of record on July 18.
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T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
Vol. 2, iss. 8
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No
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TREMX
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$20.72
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$20.72
$12.00
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See
the "European Renaissance" article and stock report
in this month's ezine.
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Stocks
in Overvalued (Take Your Profits) Category, which were taken off
of the Hot Stocks List on 7.1.05:
Genentech
closed out at $80.92, with 328% gains.
Google
closed out at $292.72, with 193% gains.
Metals
USA closed out at $19.32, with 32% gains.
Pixar
closed out at $51.67, with 21% gains.
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any stock.
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Single
Mothers Unite to Turn the "Blues" Into Blue Skies.
Learn
how you can help the 7 million children who are living in poverty
here in the U.S. featuring the nonprofit organization, CoAbode.org.
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Carmel
Sullivan,
Executive Director and Founder,
CoAbode.org
Photo Credit: Trudy Forristal
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A lot of ink has been given of late to post-partum depression, and
what beautiful Hollywood moms do to battle it. At the same time,
in every city in America, over one-third, 34.3 percent, of all female-headed
households with children under 18 are living in poverty. There are
13 million single moms raising more than 20 million children in
the United States, increasing at 25% each year, according to the
2000 U.S. Census Bureau.
Single mothers
are struggling to raise children on their own. Some live in garages,
or sleep on borrowed beds. Others move back home with their parents.
Some, like two-time Academy Award-winner Hilary Swank and her
mother, have even had to sleep in their car. Thanks to one brave
mother with a brilliant idea, more and more moms are teaming up
to cut their expenses by almost half, and give themselves the
blessed free time that so many overburdened, overworked single
parents lack.
CoAbode, an
online house-sharing service, was founded on the principle that
two single moms can afford twice the house for half the money,
do half the cooking and cleaning and have another adult around
for childcare and car pooling. CoAbode doubles the spending power
of single mothers by cutting the costs of housing, utilities and
childcare. Less work and lower overhead reduces stress, giving
a single mom more time and energy for healthy interaction with
her children and more money for discretionary spending. The idea
is simple, yet the results are profound. In fact, many successful
women, including Gloria Allred and Natalie Pace, have gone on
from house-sharing to live and launch the business of their dreams.
Below
is the personal story of that brave single mother, Carmel Sullivan,
the founder of CoAbode, a 501 (c) (3) non-profit organization.
In just three years, CoAbode has attracted over six million hits
to its web site, and has helped countless mothers and their children.
This year, CoAbode is seeking private donations to meet a matching
grant from the Three Guineas Fund in order to continue and expand
their support and services for single moms. If you would like
to contribute to a cause that helps alleviate poverty here in
the United States, please click to donate to CoAbode,
or go to http://www.coabode.org/donate.php.
"Single
Mothers Unite," an excerpt from "Chicken Soup for the Single
Parent's Soul" by Carmel Sullivan, Executive Director, CoAbode.org
Life
can be eerie sometimes but for me, in the months immediately after
divorce, it felt downright scary. It was like watching the world
pass by with the sound tuned way down. Society clearly went about
its business but I didn't, not really. Yes I was functional, I
brushed my teeth and did the laundry and somehow picked up the
groceries, but I was never aware of doing any of these things
while I was doing them. Sometimes I'd reach into the fridge for
milk and wonder how it got there? Or I'd suddenly notice that
I was miles out on the freeway and had forgotten where I was going
in the first place. Now I wonder how my post divorce Ôblue' period
was perceived by my young son Cooper. He was only 7, but what
did he make of Mama somnambulating around like a lost ghost stopping
only to hug him, holding on for dear life, for solace?
The haze and
paralysis was quickly chased away by the cold reality of economics.
After seventeen years in a happy, prosperous marriage I suddenly
found myself plagued by worry and doubt. How on earth was I going
to support this little boy on my own? Fear gripped me by the throatÉ.
a deep, relentless sense of doom pervaded everything I did or
felt. And it wasn't just about money; it was the loneliness, it
was not understanding my place in the world anymore, not knowing
where I now belonged. For the first time in my adult life I felt
utterly powerless and alone. At nights I'd wait for Cooper to
fall asleep and then curl up in a fetal position cryingÉ not on
my own comfy bed in my own, beautiful house, but on a stranger's
bed in a small room that I was forced to rent upon relocating
to Los Angeles after the divorce. For a while, I allowed the fear
to take me over. The worry about where I could go and what I could
do infected every waking moment. The sensation became so gut-wrenching
that I retreated into meditation. A practice I had always nurtured
for pleasure now became a place to escape to. The relief would
come and I would love it.
It was in
a prolonged meditation that I had a realizationÉa warm peaceful
feeling filled my body and mind. A clear intuitive thought pierced
through the fog. It was filled with peace, joy, but mostly with
pure intention. It told me to "find another single
mother to share with."
Bolstered
by this clear message I went in search of a house big enough for
two families. When I found the house I posted a notice: "single
mom seeks same to pool resources and share a house with a garden.
Let's work together to create a safe environment for our children."
I received 18 responses. At first I felt that the something good
that was happening was all about me. But as I started to have
conversations with the moms who responded, it became clear that
this was bigger than me. This was about all of these women looking
for a way to connect, and not just for house sharing, but as single
mothers who needed to reach out to someone who understood what
they were going through. But I only had one houseÉ what could
I say to the other seventeen? After chatting with several of the
moms over coffee, it struck me that some might have more in common
with each other than they had with me. Two had 3 year old boys.
One mother had a 16 year old girl and lived close by another who
had a 14 year old girl. It made perfect sense to put them in contact
with each other. And so I did. And they were grateful.
If 18 single
moms were looking to share with another single mom in my small
neighborhood, how many hundreds must there be in the greater Los
Angeles area? How many thousands in California? How many millions
in the United States? I did some research and found that there
was no forum where single moms could find each other to house
share. That familiar intuitive feeling came over meÉand I was
listeningÉ Why not me? Why not take the initiative and create
my own vision of a place for us single moms to connect, a place
for us, by us where we can pool resources to build healthier,
happier, more secure home environments. So I founded CoAbodeÉ
a web site designed exclusively to connect single moms for house
sharing and friendships. It took time and incredible effort but
within a year I had a full service website up and running. Today
we have 20,000 members, thousands of whom are sharing homes together
all over the United States.
Only another
single parent truly understands how lonely and sometimes frightening
it is to face every day raising your children alone, which is
just one of the reasons why single parents make ideal roommates
for each other. And the message from those single moms who've
connected off CoAbode is so heartening. They rejoice in doing
half the shopping, half the cooking, half the cleaning, and getting
twice the house they couldn't have afforded alone. Recently divorced
women tell me how they've been able to hold on to the family home
by bringing in another single mom to help share the financial
burden. And instead of dwelling in a sad and lonely place, they
now have a friend to laugh with, or a shoulder to cry on when
the bad memories creep in. But more inspiring than all of this
is what single moms say they've achieved for their childrenÉ I
hear about warm kitchens full of children's laughter, two year
old boys who assume they are brothers, and teenage girls who share
the bus to school with new surrogate sisters, knowing that they
have so much more to return home to than they ever had before.
It may take
a village to raise a productive member of society but we can make
a great start with single moms who unite in their devotion to
their children and their willingness to help themselves and by
doing so, the world.
CoAbode
is a 501 (c)(3) non-profit organization.
Please
click to donate to CoAbode,
or go to http://www.coabode.org/donate.php.
Your support is needed to ensure that CoAbode matches the Three
Guineas Fund grant. Please know that any amount is greatly appreciated,
and that large donors will be a part of CoAbode's It Takes a Village
List of Contributors, which will be posted on the web site.
Carmel Sullivan,
the founder and executive director of CoAbode.org, is a professional
artist and early childhood educator who believes in the idea of
community support for families. Born in County Cork, Ireland.
Sullivan comes from a large family of seven children, which may
explain why the notion of child-centered education has always
been dear to her heart. She believes in the educational philosophy
that teaches parents to honor and respect their children in every
interaction. This attitude is reflected in her mission for CoAbode.

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VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at info@NataliePace.com
NOTICE:
NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service, and does not operate
or act as one.
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