
Vol.2 Issue 11 November 1st, 2005
Send comments and
suggestions. or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
Quote
of the Month:
"The
fall of Enron Corporation focused attention on the potentially
devastating effect of owning too much company stock. 57.73%
of employees' 401(k) assets were invested in Enron stock as
it fell 98.8% in value during 2001. But employees at many companies
still have even larger percentages of their 401(k) assets in
company stock than Enron employees did."
NASD,
in their article, "Putting
Too Much Stock in Your Company - A 401(k) Problem"
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- Maria
Shriver Throws a Great Party for over 11,000 Girl Friends
(and one Supreme Court Justice). By Natalie Pace,
founder and CEO, NataliePace.com.
- Administaff:
the Antithesis of Enron. Q&A with Paul Sarvadi CEO
of Administaff. By Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman and
COO of Odyssey Advisors LLC.
- Sharing
Wisdom: I've tried everything to expand my business
and nothing is working! HELP!!.
- The
Joy of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor, Jodi
Seidler.
- Inspiring
Quotes from 10 Powerful Leaders.
- Freakonomics
- Review by Patrick A. Fraioli, Jr.
- Celebrities,
Style and Parties. While You Dream of the Good
Life, Your Future could be Cat Food. By Natalie Pace.
- Inflation,
the Price of Gas in China and 3rd Quarter Stock and
Bond Performance. By Paul Woods, President & CEO
of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
- Putting
Too Much Stock in Your Company - A 401(k) Problem. Investor
Alert from the National Association of Securities Dealers.
-
Do Good Corporate Ethics Make For Good Earnings?
By David M. Glasser.
- Don't
be Tricked by Good Earnings Reports. By Natalie
Pace, top-ranked stock picker, per TipsTraders.com.
- Harvesting
Profits on Firms That Farm Out Payroll and Benefits
By Natalie Pace. Article and Stock Report Card.
- Calendar:
Don't Miss NataliePace.com's online chat with members "sharing
wisdom," the Professional Business Women's Conference
in Sacramento, world-class opera under the direction
of Placido Domingo, and the Software Industry Awards
nominations.

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Maria
Shriver Throws a Great Party for over 11,000 Girl Friends (and
one Supreme Court Justice).
by Natalie
Pace, founder and CEO, NataliePace.com
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Jane
Fonda, First Lady Maria Shriver and Sandra Day O'Connor
P hoto Credit: California Governor and First Lady's Conference
on Women and Families, Susan Goldman. |
Last year,
at the California Governor and First
Lady's Conference for Women and Families, you
knew why you were there: to see Oprah up close and personal. How
many times in your life do you sit before one of the most powerful
women in the world, and listen to her candidly testify to the
source of her greatness and reveal all of the personal secrets
that she believes keeps her on top. Not only that, but, to be
impassioned by Oprah's sermon, which was as fiery as any ever
delivered by Martin Luther King, while surrounded by the awe and
wonder and energy of 10,000 women, these are once-in-a-lifetime
experiences that ignite your soul. It's hard to top an Oprah Winfrey
keynote, but leave it to California First Lady Maria Shriver to
outshine the sun she brought to Long Beach, California last year.
So how did
she do it? The line-up included Sandra Day O'Connor, Deepak Chopra,
Carly Fiorina and Barbara Walters, among numerous leaders and
legends. Maria also eliminated (most of) the politics from the
event. Arnold was absent all day, until the early evening, when
he surprised everyone to deliver a congratulatory speech to the
recipients of the 2005 Minerva Awards. As Maria noted in her welcome
speech, "Neither one of my parents changed anyone's life
through elective office. Neither one of my parents changed anyone's
life by being rigidly partisan, or by working only with one faith
or one color." It was a theme sounded throughout the day
- service, inclusion and the active creation of a better world.
The keynotes
and the session of the conference were designed to educate and
empower each individual to realize the power of individual acts
in overcoming prejudice and adversity. Every color, creed, intelligence,
income strata, sexual orientation and gender were represented
in Maria's outstanding list of speakers: from Tom Brokaw to Gayle
King, from Katie Cortelyou (an inspiring woman with intellectual
disabilities) to Mary J. Blige, from Isabel Allende to Billie
Jean King.
Ann Fudge,
CEO, Young & Rubicam, in a passionate, teary-eyed call to
action, was the first to acknowledge the powerful, simple act
that changed our world on December 1, 1955. "Nearly 50 years
ago, [Rosa Parks] didn't get up," Ms. Fudge said. "As
I grew older, I realized just how much that single event by one
woman changed my life. I wouldn't be standing here today if it
weren't for that one solitary action." Anne Sweeney, the
most powerful woman in Hollywood according to the Hollywood
Reporter, challenged the 11,000 women attending the conference,
saying, "We share the right and responsibility to do something
meaningful with our lives. Everyone here has the power to change
the world by making our own corner a better place."
4
Call to Action points of First Lady Maria Shriver:
- Help
children who are living in poverty. 1 in
5 children live in poverty in CA. 3 of the poorest cities in
the nation are in California.
- Build
playgrounds. $28 Billion alone is spent on obesity related
illnesses in California, according to Ms. Shriver, who challenged
everyone to "create playgrounds for children who have no
safe place to play. Ask your businesses to build playgrounds
for kids all over this state."
- Prepare
for Disaster. "We live in a disaster prone state,"
the First Lady said. "If we have learned anything from
Katrina, it is that we cannot rely on government alone. Make
a disaster plan for yourself and your family. Talk to your children.
Introduce yourself to your neighbor next door. When disaster
strikes, we're all in this together."
- Reach
across partisan lines and prejudices to make a differenceÑsomething
Maria and Arnold have to do every day in their marriage! Though
Maria proclaims that she is "pro-choice and pro stem cell
research," she also acknowledges that she is "the
Kennedy that married a Republican." Maria said, "Our
struggles unite us all. There is more that unites us than divides
us."
Though the
event was attended by more than 11,000 women, there were more
than a few men in the audience. As Jane Fonda pointed out in her
delightfully candid speech, "The opposite of patriarchy is
not matriarchy. It is democracy." And so it was that so many
women (and a few brave men) took a day off from their jobs, as
parents and/or as employees, to collectively network and dialogue
on how to make their lives and their world a better place. Though
it is hard to imagine how Maria and her team will do it, we all
look forward to October 2006, for yet another inspiring day.

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Administaff:
the Antithesis of Enron.
by Meri
Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman and COO of Odyssey
Advisors LLC
Q&A
with Paul Sarvadi CEO of Administaff.
Administaff,
symbol ASF
is a NYSE listed company whose stock is up over 210% year to date
as of October 14, 2005. Closing price 12/31/2004 $12.61, Closing
price October 14, 2005 $39.10. (Source Bloomberg LP)
Business
Overview:
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| Paul
J. Sarvadi Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Administaff
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Administaff
is the nation's leading Professional Employer Organization (PEO),
serving as a full-service human resources department for small
and medium sized businesses throughout the United States. Administaff
delivers its personnel management services by entering into a
co-employment relationship with a client company and the client
company's existing employees, including the business owner. Under
this arrangement, Administaff assumes or shares many of the responsibilities
of being an employer. As of December 2004 ASF had 38 sales offices
located in 21 markets.
Like a Phoenix
rising from the ashes, Administaff has come full circle. The stock,
which reached an all time low closing trade price of $1.99 per
share in September of 2002 recently hit a 52 week high on October
4 2005 of $40.94. (source Bloomberg LP). Administaff CEO Paul
Savardi answers questions about taking the high road and why good
corporate governance leads to growth.
Meri
Anne Woods: What impact has Hurricane Katrina had on Administaff
and your clients and how do you expect it will affect the economy
and ASF's growth in the 4th quarter?
Paul Savardi:
Hurricane Katrina was a tragic event for the Gulf coast; however
Administaff dodged a bullet in that we have no offices in New
Orleans and very few of our clients were impacted . Although we
had to evacuate our corporate headquarters in Texas, it gave us
the opportunity to evaluate our disaster recovery programs for
our clients, our employees and the community. Administaff personnel
went into the shelters and helped survivors put together resumes,
which were then forwarded, to our employer customer base to match
companies with workers suddenly out of a job. As far as the impact
on the economy and our growth, our business owners are still moderately
optimistic regarding the economy. The impact of the spike in gasoline
prices remains to be seen, as does the rise in inflation. Our
business owner clients are most concerned about rising health
care costs, increased competition, rising fuel costs, employee
retention, and regulatory and compliance issues.
What would
you like shareholders, clients, and employees to know about the
decision you made to absorb a large percentage of a vendor's price
increase in 2001? Rather than pass it on to your client business
owners, Administaff took a $25 million earnings hit.
The specific
issue was the failure of a key vendor to honor a contract. Administaff
did not want to be in the position of not honoring client contracts
by passing through the price increase immediately, instead of
at the annual renewal. We felt that in addition to not being honorable
we would most likely lose many of our clients, if we did. The
basis of our corporate values is, "If the values are not
right, the corporation will not be right". Although the price
of our stock dropped, our employees knew they worked for an honorable
company and redoubled their sales and marketing efforts. To the
extent that we were able to give out stock options during that
time, our employees were given options at the lower end of our
stock price range.
Note: On
October 30, 2003, a jury returned a verdict in the lawsuit between
Aetna Life Insurance Company, Administaff's former health insurance
carrier, and awarded ASF $15.5 million in damages. The award was
subsequently reduced on appeal, but contributed significantly
to 2003 earnings per share.
As you
may know, my company Odyssey Advisors LLC has been an Administaff
company for over 5 years. One issue of concern to me was the apparent
lack of transparency in pricing. For example, since our company
paid 100% of employee benefits, we did not have a cost basis breakdown
between the service fee, taxes and health and insurance benefits.
Is that an issue with other clients?
There are
two very good reasons why we charge a total percentage fee--bundling
all of our services--as we don't want to compete with our client
business owners, and it would be counter to the legal framework
of the company employee relationship if we acted as agent for
the employer. This would transfer the liability back to the employer
client company from Administaff. It's analogous to buying a new
car. When you buy a new car, you really don't know what the tires
cost. You are interested in the price of the whole car and not
the specific parts. Administaff is a turnkey one-stop shop for
human resource benefit services business model.
It appears
ASF has transitioned from a low priced value stock at under $2.00
per share in 2001 to a high PE growth stock at current valuations
of 52x average analyst's earnings estimates of just under $1.00
per share for 2005. The range in analysts' estimates for ASF growth
going forward are +30% on the high side to +10% on the low side
with the mid range 20-25%. (Source I.B.E.S. earnings estimates)
With the implementation of the dividend in 2005, will ASF be an
income stock as well going forward?
Administaff
is and continues to be a genuine ""growth company".
ASF has built a positively leveraged infrastructure. We can grow
the top line 50% more than our operating expenses due to technology
and volume purchasing of health and insurance benefits. We expect
30% to 40% revenue growth is doable as there are 600 thousand
companies that fit out sweet spot for client owners of service,
financial, administrative and other companies with limited employee
injury risk and higher paid employees . We currently do business
with only a small percentage of our potential domestic market.
The best psychographic fit for us is the best small businesses
in the country. The ones who consider their employees an asset
rather than a liability and deserving of the best possible benefits
and employer resources to better fuel company growth.
What would
you estimate the difference in cost between a company that handles
their own human resource and benefit programs versus an Administaff
client company.
Our client
company owners invest approximately 3-4% of payroll above hard
costs for individual HR, payroll, attorneys, etc. This could be
about $100 per highly compensated employee per month. The offset
is the value of the client owner's time, his or her dedication
to their true competencies and the value of being able to attract
and keep key personnel.
Knowing
how sought after your top business consultants are in the marketplace
what kind of incentives can you offer in place of stock options
for your key personnel?
Administaff
prides itself on the people working for the company. Our top business
consultants currently have no cap on what they can make in terms
of residual commissions for companies brought into the Administaff
PEO service program. For accounting reasons, we have recently
ended the practice of giving company stock options to our employees.
We will probably replace that benefit with a restricted stock
program for key employees. This benefit may not be given to as
many people in the firm as before. However, it will be easier
for employees to put a correct valuation on the restricted stock
than a pure stock option. In addition, employees earn points for
business brought in and are encouraged to ask for referrals from
existing clients who can also earn reward points. We are a very
incentive driven company.
It is fair
to say that unlike Enron, whose stock went from $82 in 2001 to
16 cents and then out of business in 2002, Administaff kept their
word to clients even though the cost was extreme. ASF stock may
have tumbled from $30.24 on January 31 of 2001 to $2.70 on August
30th of 2002 (source Administaff) but if you kept on
to the stock from there, you would be amply rewarded. Going forward,
with institutional stock ownership currently above 90%, how loyal
will shareholders be if ASF takes a long fall off the high road
and cannot meet such high growth expectations. Short sellers have
made bets against ASF that so far have not turned out well. ASF
has scheduled its' next earnings release for November 1, 2005
to discuss the 3rd Quarter of 2005, at 10:00 AM Eastern
Time. We will be watching; stay tuned.
Meri Anne
Beck-Woods is Chairman and COO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in eq1uity and fixed income
management for individual's entrepreneurs, families, endowments,
and non-profit stitutionsods@odysseyadvisors.com.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however,
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

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Sharing
Wisdom: I've tried everything to expand my business and nothing
is working! HELP!!.
In
our monthly Sharing Wisdom feature, NataliePace.com subscribers get answers
to questions about money, career, business, investing (and really
what doesn't have an element of money to it). The collective experience,
success and wisdom of the NataliePace.com circle can help you to follow
the golden brick road to your dream life.
This month,
a technology entrepreneur writes: "I have owned a technology
consulting firm for five years and I have tried all year long
to expand the business, hire employees, and win proposals. NADA!
What else does it take beside energy and drive (which I
am full of) to make it as your own company?" Kelley
1.
Establish Your Niche, Get Referrals and Access Free Expert Advice
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| Patty
DeDominic, Founder, CEO and Chairman of PDQ Services, Inc.
Chairman, SCORE Foundation |
by Patty
DeDominic. Chair of the Board of the www.SCORE.org
Foundation and the Former President, National Association of Women
Business Owners at www.nawbo.org.
As you know
technology has been growing at the pace of a speeding bullet,
stretching out wider than a tsunami. How
to find the ways to ride this wave now? My advice is to find your
niche and get the word out about your expertise in certain areas...
Is it business process improvement? Buying hardware? Software
solutions for publishing? Science?
Have your surveyed your past customers to find what they valued
most about what you offered? If you have satisfied clients,
they may be your best source of referrals for new. If you
can't find many past clients who will give you testimonials after
five years in business then you have another problem altogether.
Survey your
prospecting client niches to see what issues they recognize now
as problems or anticipate in the future. Also try to find out
who is currently serving this niche. What do they offer
that you aren't? How are they targeting and winning over
their clients? This should give you guidance as where your future
contacts will come from.
Employees are almost a thing of the past for technology consulting
firms. Perhaps you are ready to try a joint venture supplying
your expertise as a subcontractor or prime contractor with another
firm similar to yours.
If you would
like more tips on hiring, please visit http://www.pdqcareers.com.
Remember
you can get FREE on line or in person business advice from www.SCORE.org.
This 40-year old non-profit organization has a vibrant
web service you can access 24/7 and get answers to specific and
general business questions by experts who donate their time after
agreeing to a strict code of ethics.
2.
Balance
Kari, an NataliePace.com
subscriber.
The one most
important word of wisdom is balance! Sometimes we get so busy
in wanting to get somewhere, to get to our vision, that we forget
too see the baby steps we are taking to get there. We get so busy
with the hustle of pulling it all together in our "work"
selves that we forget to nurture the other parts of who we are,
which are vital to the whole picture. We need to be still sometimes
so that we can see the work we are actually doing. Be still to
be open to the process. Count your blessings. Have fun. And then
"not succeeding" is not an option!
3.
Networking and Marketing
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| Maryann
Johnson, Director of TV Music Administration 21 year veteran
at 20TH Century Fox Studios. |
by Maryann
Johnson, Director of TV Music Administration and a 21 year veteran
at 20TH Century Fox Studios.
An essential
key to a successful business is NETWORKING and MARKETING. You
have to establish awareness of your company, senior executives
and services. The people who use your type of services in the
community, have to know you're there. When I say iPod, you
know it's Apple. When I say Bill Gates, you know he's head
of Microsoft.
Volunteer
on committees. Join the Chamber of Commerce. Attend
conventions. Senior Executives need to be visible. Know your
area politicians and events. Introduce yourself to the key
participants and let folks know your availability. You can work
with local radio station promotions and give away a free consultation.
Churches are another good source. They have newsletters and newspapers.
Participate in some of their activities. There are also schools
in your area. Do seminars.
4.
Supply and Demand
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| Diane
Conti, President of VIP Meetings & Conventions. |
by Diane Conti,
president of VIP
Meetings & Conventions.
Diane founded
her business at age 41 after a 20-year career in the aerospace
industry as a "rocket scientist". She has built an extremely successful
company by combining technology with personalized service. VIP
Meetings & Conventions provides full service convention management
to corporations and associations.
If your attempts
at expanding your business are unsuccessful....there are some
fundamental questions you should ask yourself. Yes, drive
and hard work are important, but are you really providing a service
that others want and need? Believe it or not, many companies are
formed offering services that the founder thinks are terrific,
but there is no real market of any size to support their
enthusiasm. I do not know what business you are in...but
first it has to
be something that is in demand with a large potential market.
If you have
competitors that are beating you out, do some intelligence gathering.
Why are you losing the business? What is it that your competitors
are doing or offering that you aren't? What can you do to distinguish
yourself from your competition? When you lose a piece of
business, ask why. I have found that people are usually
willing to share that information. Use that feedback to
adjust your strategy and/or products/services and pricing. Bottom
line.......working harder is not enough...working smarter is essential.
5.
Brainstorm
Lynn Rosenberg.
After losing
her husband to skin cancer, Lynn Rosenberg created "UV Protection
with Style" ... small, lightweight, beautiful UV-Sun Umbrellas
that are endorsed by MDs. Check them out at Soleil
Chic.
If you've
brainstormed yourself silly, start storming someone else's brain.
6.
Peer Advice
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| Rosemary
A. Bova Founder and President of Bova Enterprises, Inc. |
by
Rosemary A. Bova. Rosemary
Bova is founder and president of Bova
Enterprises, Inc. Advisors to Management, a
consulting firm specializing in Leadership, Team and Organization
Development to create requisite companies.
It is extremely
difficult to be in business. Many businesses fail in the
first five years and we don't necessarily hear about them. It's
like acting. Most actors struggle throughout their life;
only a handful becomes stars. Go to NAWBO.org
and learn about the National Association of Women Business Owners.
Membership provides access to thousands of women business
owners who are willing to help another member address a business
problem or concern.
Sometimes
women hesitate to ask for help, but other women have addressed
similar business problems. It's like motherhood. Women
who have raised children have dealt with the same situations as
a new mother. It's more acceptable to ask about breastfeeding
or the terrible twos than it is to ask about how to grow your
business. It's harder to admit you may be doing something
wrong in your growth strategy. The NAWBO
network of women business owners is an invaluable network to help
you look at your business decisions. We as women business
owners must support each other so that we can create economic
security for our families and ourselves and build viable, profitable
business entities.
Next month's
question comes from a 21-year-old young man, who is interested
in investing and is wondering which steps to take next in his
career. He has his real estate license, has read the Rich Dad,
Poor Dad series and has even dabbled in junior college and
multi-level marketing. In his own words, Dennis writes:
I've watched
my parents and how they live, comfortably yes . They have their
needs, but not their wants. I've watched them struggle with bills,
arguments etc all over money, and I don't want myself or my family
to go through that. I don't necessarily like working "for" other
people, but I love working "with" other people. I'm tempted to
go after my series 6 license, but I'm still walking down a dark
road and have no idea where to go. Anyone got a map?
If you have
a pithy, tacit answer for Dennis, please forward your response
to info@NataliePace.com
before November 15, 2005. We will be compiling your responses
for Dennis and for an article in the December 2005 ezine. Please
note that, in the interest of space, we will not be able to publish
all responses, and can only consider those responses that are
received by 11.15.05. Thanks in advance for sharing your wisdom
with our readers.

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The
Joy of Stocks,
as told
by Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler
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Jodi
Seidler
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What people
like about me most are my desire to learn and my ability to keep
growing, past my comfort zone. Hence, I decided it was time
to get into the stock market. I consider myself a highly
intuitive person in my civilian life - but my BIG question was
- does this transfer into the world of stocks and bonds? I
clicked my heels three times and said, "There is no place like
IRA" and then I dug in my heels, palms sweating. I researched
via YAHOO finance. I asked questions of a retired stockbroker
friend (and date) of mine. I registered with Schwab.com (a favorite
of my dear old dad), and I visualized myself as wealthy from my
investments.
As an entrepreneur
and website(s) owner (http://www.makinglemonade.com
is a community for single parents), I know from my son-the-teenager
that http://www.myspace.com
is a hot property. (We all must have real estate on the web.)
So, I researched and I did my due diligence with trusted
investors. I read what Natalie Pace had to say about MySpace.com
as well, and THEN I jumped. It happened the week before
my 51st birthday, the day after I had a dream that the stock would
become famous. I pushed the buy button and buckled my virgin-investor
seat belt. I was NOW a stockholder with a dream, with a
piece of the proverbial pie. I am a tech girl by nature,
so I am drawn to tech stocks because that is who I am.
So was my
dream a prophecy as I had felt? Was I as foolish as my left-brained
broker-mentor told me I was? Well, all I can say is take
your worst nightmare and add a pitch of "told you so" and you'd
have what happened next. Three days following my brilliant purchase
of MIX stock, Elliot Spitzer (feel free to GOOGLE him for more
info) sued my savior stock for a series of [alleged] Wall Street
crimes and the stock fell like a ride at Magic Mountain. I
panicked, I lost sleep, and I even sought advice from a psychic.
Not only could
I not sleep at night, I had enough hot sweats to give men-o-pause
a new name. Had I been too quick to push the BUY button?
As I entered the "Should I stay or should I go" syndrome
- all I could hear were the echoes from the past, from a 'long-forgotten-due-to-therapy'
chorus of "what were you thinking" in my ears. Had
I indeed been better off putting all of my money on 23 black on
the roulette wheel? I laid in bed thinking of all the ways
I could have spent that forsaken investment.... five month's
rent, a trip to New York or Paris, plus those outrageous pair
of boots I had cooed over in 'In Style' Magazine.
I felt lost
and stupid and alone in my 'woe is me world'. I HAD to talk
myself back into the world of grown-up, where we acknowledge our
mistakes and move on. But, why couldn't I move on? I
still felt a tinge of a possible "comeback"; after all, this is
Hollywood - the land of the comeback. If only I could only
hang on to the belief in turnarounds and magic. I needed
to hang on to my hopes and dreams of the American way. I
know, as a single mom, I am a Superwoman, but truth be told -
I cannot leap tall buildings or truly predict the future. But
I CAN follow my hunches and choose to truly feel that in some
cosmic way I did buy a piece of something I believe in. And,
I do believe in building community on and off line, and I do believe
in owning a piece (and hopefully peace) of Wall Street.
And then I
called Natalie Pace. She shared with me, the novice of novices,
stories and analogies from her history files - and I found the
meaning inside those stories. One of the stories she told
me was of a woman who was going to get out of the stock market
and take a large loss at a time, in October 2002, when the markets
were at a 5-year low. Natalie explained that education is always
better than panicking and that the markets were at a 5-year low.
Historically, she explained, it is not a good idea to sell low,
unless you're talking about an Enron or a Global Crossing.
The woman hung on, the market came back and she became very
happy she stayed in the market.
Natalie's
story brought home to me the point to NOT be fueled
by emotions when it comes to selling; and that to "know when to
hold 'em/know when to fold 'em" comes very much into play in the
market and not just in the realm of relationships. I learned,
from the story that it is best to have a clear, non-emotional
head and to know what comes down can come UP (and vice versa).
That assurance gave me a breath and a knowing that if I
just sit on my hands and breathe - I will be able to see much
more clearer what to do. Waiting and watching and educating myself
really helped during this period. Also I learned NOT to
listen to any one else's advice to "get out NOW". After
all, it is MY money and my very own vision of the stock and
company I bought into.
I held on.
I gathered a buddy system through YAHOO stock newsgroups
that had also invested in this myspace.com/MIX phenomenon - so
I was not alone. I am a hand holding kind of girl! What
was funny was that the stock HAD become famous - even infamous,
as in my dream, but not for the reasons I had assumed. Like
a celebrity who gets in the papers with their name spelled correctly,
my stock had its month in the limelight. And NOW because
of Spitzer, people KNEW about MIX and myspace.com. Just a few
short months after Rupert Murdock (you gotta Google him too) decided
he needed to own myspace.com (to capture the 14 - 36 plus demographic)
- the stock soared, and so did my hopes and dreams!
Albeit, I
didn't make enough for Sam's college education or that car he
wants, but I did prove to myself that with some moxie, education,
a buddy system ... PLUS some dollars - I CAN make a difference
in my finances and empower myself to continue this exciting financial
journey in the stock market. I made a lot of money (to me) for
what was really a very short period of time. Although my
hope was that someone else would out bid this Mogul (which did
not occur), I still gained a real presence of confidence and gratitude
that I was brave, strong and confident enough to follow my dreams.
Most of all
I built a trust in myself that I can, with careful study and the
help of gurus, build a solid portfolio and a trust in myself that
no one can infiltrate. I am a proud "winner" in the stock
market with a success story that makes me proud, and one I can
share with other virgins wanting to dip their toe in the market
waters. With my current proven confidence that I can make
it though the Wall Street Dark Night of the Soul, I have
a newly anointed knowing that with education, staying power and
some guts - I can continue to invest...in myself, my future and
in our country. And now, I can even translate and deliver
those dreams to my son, so he can create his future as an entrepreneur.
Can it get
any better than that?
Jodi Seidler
is the founder of the leading single parent information site MakingLemonade.com,
and the author of 55 Things Every Divorcing Mom Should Know! Jodi
not only has extensive experience writing, speaking and coaching
single parents but is also extensively experienced in helping
women find their voice and career path and market it to the outside
world. Feel free to connect with her at: Jodi@makinglemonade.com

|
|
Inspiring
Quotes from 10 Powerful Leaders.
From
the California Governor and First
Lady's Conference for Women
and Families, held on 10.27.05 in Long Beach, California.
 |
First
Lady Maria Shriver, Tom Brokaw, Linda Ellerbee, Barbara Walters,
Isabel Allende and Billie Jean King
Photo Credit: California
Governor and First Lady's Conference on Women and Families,
Susan Goldman. |
1. Ann
Fudge, CEO, Young & Rubicam
Nearly
50 years ago, [Rosa Parks] didn't get up. As I grew older, I realized
just how much that single event by one woman changed my life.
I wouldn't be standing here today if it weren't for that one solitary
action.
The best way
to predict the future is to create it. Think about how you're
going to create your future and our collective futures for stronger
communication, and lord knows, a much better world.
2. Anne
Sweeney, co-chairman Disney Media Networks and President ABC TV
Group. The most powerful woman in entertainment, according to
the Hollywood Reporter.
There
is a direct link in what we are able to achieve and the amount
of risk we are able to take. I take the job that scares me the
most.
If we're afraid
to leap, we can't expect to fly.
Everyone here
has the power to change the world by making our own corner a better
place.
3. Jane
Fonda. Hollywood legend. Political activist.
If
the paradigm of society was circular, not hierarchical, we'd all
be sitting across from each other, no start, no finish. Oh, that's
women's way.
Men aren't
even allowed to be depressed, which is why so many engage in self-numbing,
from sex, to gambling, to workingÉ
How many young
men have died because of our leaders fear of premature evacuation.
(on Lyndon Johnson's fear of being called an unmanly man if he
pulled out of Viet Nam.)
The opposite
of patriarchy is not matriarchyÉ It's democracy.
4. Barbara
Walters. The Godmother of network news. Owner/Producer of The
View.
Not
everybody has children. If you don't have children it doesn't
mean that you are not fulfilled. If you stay home and you decide
not to work, that's okay. And if you do work, and you are ambitious,
don't put yourself down because you have ambition or drive. Nobody
complains when a man does.
My slogan
has always been: Just do your job and don't whine.
5. Sandra
Day O'Connor. Supreme Court Justice.
It
took 191 years to put a woman on the Supreme Court. I think that
was a little long to wait. It's important that citizens of this
country see in all areas of our government structure that women
are represented there.
At the end
of the day, in the questions in which we address on the court,
a wise old woman and a wise old man will come up with the same
conclusion.
I couldn't
get an interview. Here were all these notices asking Stanford
law grads to apply for an interview. I would call and I couldn't
get an interview scheduled. (On graduating 3rd in a
class of 102 at Stanford and not being able to find a job.)
I think if
you start at a low rung in the office, you're the one who finds
out the facts, and figures out what to do about issues. Someone
starting at the bottom can be very effective in finding ways to
move on up.
I put all
my energy in at the front end, reading everything I can. I then
reach a decision and I don't look back. I think a judge's job
is to make decisions. If you were second guessing every decision
you made, you couldn't live that long.
6. Maria
Shriver. First Lady of California, wife of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger,
granddaughter of Joe and Rose Kennedy, niece of John F. and Robert
Kennedy.
Neither
one of my parents changed anyone's life through elective office.
Neither one of my parents changed anyone's life by being rigidly
partisan, or by working only with one faith or one color. (Sergeant
Shriver founded the Peace Corps and Maria's mother, Eunice Shriver,
founded the Special Olympics.)
7. Billie
Jean King. 6 Wimbledon championships. 4 U.S. Open championships.
#1 women's tennis player in the world for five years. In 1973,
she beat Bobby Riggs, while 50 million people watched around the
world. Life magazine named her one of the 100 most important
American in the 20th Century.
Title
9, besides the vote, besides civil rights, was the most important
piece of legislation in the 20th century. I was pre-Title
9. I wasn't able to get an athletic scholarship to college because
of my gender.
8. Linda
Ellerbee. Producer of Lucky Duck Productions, with 55 employees,
and 15 years on Nickelodeon doing children's programming. A writer/producer/adventuress.
At
Lucky Duck, we've had women who decide to have children and continue
working. Others decide to have children and not work. By the way,
staying home is still working. Others find a way to work from
home with their young children. Because my company is run by a
woman, I'm aware that they ought to have those choices. Men have
always had choices because they had a wife at home.
9. Isabel
Allende. In 1973 she was driven into exile, from a military coup
in Chile, with her husband and young children. Her first novel,
The House of Spirits was published to great acclaim.
As
women get empowered and educated and get access to contraception
and education, they become leaders. Every time the religious fundamentalists
or the political fundamentalists gain control, women get put down.
10. Carly
Fiorina. Former Chairman and CEO, Hewlett-Packard.
When
the worst thing you can image happens, life goes on. When my mother
died, I thought that was the worst thing I could imagine, but
the sun comes up the next day. You are fired publicly and the
whole world has a field day with it. I got through it because
of the unwavering support of my husband, who is here, and my family.
The sweet part is that I now have the opportunities that I never
had time to do before. I can write a book. Spend time with my
family, my husband. There's a lot more to life than corporate
America.
We will have
a woman President, but that doesn't mean that there aren't real
barriers, real prejudices. Women frequently lack the presumption
of competence. When a man is in a leadership position, everyone
assumes he is competent. Sometimes it takes people a long time
to figure out that this guy doesn't know what he's doing. The
burden of proof rests with the woman. You have to prove that you
are competent.
There are
people who focus on the limitations of the situation, and there
are people who focus on the possibilities. The people who focus
on the possibilities always achieve more. See what's possible!!

|
|
Freakonomics
review
by Patrick
A. Fraioli, Jr.
What do you
get when you cross a witty, successful, freelance writer with
the self-described "world's weakest man" - the guy who
has to ask his wife to twist off the top of the pickle jar for
him? Why, a book, of course! Freakonomics is the first
book by both men, and it is a great read. More importantly, investors
can learn quite a bit from this book.
So,
what exactly is Freakonomics?
"Economics",
we are told, "is, at root, the study of incentives: of how
people get what they want, or need, especially when other people
want or need the same thing." (Page 20.) Freakonomics, on
the other hand, applies an economist's analytical tools to whatever
freakish curiosities the analyst may have. (Page 14.) Let's be
clear: Levitt and Dubner are not sitting around wondering whether
cutting the capital gains tax rate will generate investment. No,
they want to know What Do Schoolteachers and Sumo Wrestlers Have
In Common? (Answer: they both cheat). How is the Ku Klux Klan
Like A Bunch of Real Estate Agents (Answer: they both use secrecy
to keep power). Why Do Drug Dealers Still Live With Their Mothers
(Answer: because the vast majority make only as much money as
they would working at McDonald's).
You do not
have to be a sumo wrestler or a real estate agent to be pissed
off by the conclusions drawn by the authors. For example, Chapter
Four has already angered the entire pro-life lobby, because Levitt's
conclusion after reviewing the data on the otherwise unexplainable,
massive drop in crime in the 1990s is that it is largely the result
of - are you ready for this? -- the legalization of abortion by
the Supreme Court in Roe v. Wade almost twenty years earlier.
How, you say, is that possible? As always with the man who was
voted the equivalent of the under-age-40 Nobel Prize in Economics,
the data tells the tale.
Here's a brief
summary of the book's most provocative chapter. In 1990, the U.S.
Government and all criminal justice pundits braced for an oncoming,
massive wave of violent street crime. A new, inner city, "super-predator"
would be spawned on our streets by the confluence of an anticipated
population explosion and the ubiquity of crack cocaine. The streets,
we were told, would run red with blood throughout the 1990s. But,
then, a funny thing happened on the way to the bloodbath: crime
began dropping - suddenly and dramatically - and kept on dropping
every year in the 1990s in virtually every jurisdiction in the
nation. Why? How could every expert be so spectacularly wrong?
Enter Steven Levitt, Ph.D. Ever the contrarian, Levitt plows through
the boatload of explanations offered by the so-called experts:
strong economy, community policing, gun control, etc. None can
explain the breadth or the magnitude of the drop.
The answer
is remarkably simple. Immediately following Roe v. Wade,
every state in the Union legalized abortion (it was legal in a
few states already), and millions of women had abortions. Generally
speaking, "Éthe very factors that drove millions of American
women to have an abortion [poverty, single-parent household, low
maternal education] also seemed to predict that their children,
had they been born, would have led unhappy and possibly criminal
lives." (pp.138-139.)
The conclusion
is far from elegant, and quite different from any of the myriad
theories of crime prevention touted by the media. The key is that
Levitt starts with the data and finds a conclusion, not the other
way around. The authors explain their findings, noting:
"In
the early 1990s, just as the first cohort of children born
after Roe v. Wade was hitting its late teen years - the years
during which young men enter their criminal prime - the rate
of crime began to fall. "What this cohort was missing,
of course, were the children who stood the greatest chance
of becoming criminals. And the crime rate continued to fall
as an entire generation came of age minus the children whose
mothers had not wanted to bring a child into the world. Legalized
abortion led to less unwantedness; unwantedness leads to high
crime; legalized abortion, therefore, led to less crime."
(p. 139.)
The point
is not whether or not you agree that abortion is apparently the
most powerful crime-control device ever invented, or even what
impact this conclusion should have on the abortion debate in this
country. Levitt is willing to leave those decisions to the country's
political and moral leaders. The point is that the data tells
the tale; all you have to do is mine it and avoid preconceived
notions. And that is exactly why investors, of all people, need
to read this book.
What
Can Investors Learn from Freakonomics?
The lessons for investors are many. First, ask questions.
Follow your curiosity, even if it is as freakish as Levitt's.
Your life experiences give you a unique perspective that may give
you an edge over the herd (this is reminiscent of Peter Lynch's
famous investment strategy). Second, do not simply accept the
conventional wisdom regarding an investment. Ask why it is so,
and whether the entire class of pundits whose opinions comprise
the conventional wisdom have a vested interest in maintaining
it. Third, pose a hypothesis and test it. Review the data, for
example, of all the investment decisions you have made in a particular
period or of a particular type. Look to see if there are any patterns.
Did you jump at "story stocks" or media darlings that
later got crushed (remember B2B)? Did you follow the experts and
learn later that they were simply perma-bulls? Or, perhaps are
you the kind of person who tries to catch falling knives? Look
and see how many you "caught" and how many sliced you
up.
Of course,
all of this assumes you keep or have access to such data in the
first place, and that you are willing to analyze it without pre-judging
it. If the data is not there, it cannot be mined, so keep track
of your investments and the conditions under which you made them.
Finally, be rigorous in your analysis. Know the difference between
correlation and causation. And don't make excuses. Know thyself
or, more importantly, trust the data and thus learn about yourself.
In the long run, it is what will enable you to make your best
investment decisions.
Patrick Fraioli,
Jr. is a partner with the law firm, Moldo
Davidson
Fraioli Seror & Sestanovich LLP, located in Los Angeles,
California.

|
|
Celebrities,
Style and Parties.
by Natalie
Pace
While
You Dream of the Good Life, Your Future Could be Cat Food.
It's tempting
to read fluff, especially after a hard day's grind. I'm just as
likely to pick up the latest headline on Vince and Jennifer or
Bennifer and Brangelina as the Financial Times before boarding
a long flight, and I know that the last thing you want to hear
at the end of a hard day is that your pension plan may be in peril.
You may think it's like the War in Iraq, tragic, but out of your
control, and, as with the war, you might be dead wrong.
Global Crossing.
Enron. United Airlines. All of these companies have bankrupted
their pension plans over the last three years, and this is not
surprising given the demographic of the U.S. today, when almost
a third of our population will start retiring in 2008. With Delta
and Delphi in bankruptcy, it could be imperative that you determine
whether or not your pension plan is next in line. Blue Chips and
pension plans are becoming endangered species these days, and
those of you who work for companies founded before 1980 may be
at risk of eating cat food in retirement, if you don't protect
(roll
over) your retirement plan now.
As an example,
General Motors, whose pension plan is being formally investigated
by the Securities and Exchange Commission, has a current stock
market valuation of $15.69 billion. According to Standard and
Poor's, the pension plan liabilities of General Motors equal $107.440
billion, with only $99.909 billion in assets. That means the pension
plan is -$7.531 billion underwater. It was enough to catch the
attention of the SEC, which is also informally investigating the
pension plan accounting of Ford and Delphi. According to the Standard
& Poor's Pension Plan Report, which was issued in July of
this year, Ford Delphi and General Motors are all in the top ten
list of companies that are in the most trouble with their pension
plans, along with Exxon, IBM, Delta Airlines, Lockheed Martin,
Boeing, Raytheon and Dupont.
These companies
aren't the only Blue Chips that have pension plan obligations
in the red. According to Standard and Poor's, of the 369 companies
that offer defined benefit plans, 311 are currently underfunded.
"The underfunding stems from a combination of low interest
rates and specific accounting methodologies designed to smooth
out market volatility," according to David M. Blitzer and
Howard Silverblatt, co-authors of the Standard & Poor's S&P
500 2004 Pension Status Report. "Unfortunately, these same
accounting rules often conceal the current condition of funds
for several years," the authors note.
How vulnerable
are companies with underfunded pension plans and what kind of
risk are employees and investors taking on by investing in or
working for these companies? The airlines industry is unfortunately
the best example of the difference between the legacy costs (pension
plans) of old and new companies. United Airlines, US Airways,
Northwest Airlines, Delta Airlines and more have filed for bankruptcy
in order to slough off or reduce the benefits and wages of their
employees, in an attempt to stop losing money. American Airlines
is still operating in the red, while newer airlines, like JetBlue,
which do not have the legacy costs of the defined-benefit plan
(and offer 401K "savings accounts" that employees are
responsible for instead), have posted profits for a record 19
straight quarters, even with record high fuel prices.
In other words,
blue chips with defined-benefit pension plan that used to be the
stalwarts of Wall Street have become the most vulnerable - to
both employees and investors alike. The S&P report of companies
that owe money to their pension plans include such stalwarts as
Hewlett-Packard, Altria, AIG and more.
40
of the S&P 500 companies that are most deeply in the red on
pension plans.
|
Company
|
$$
underfunded
|
Ranking
|
|
3M
|
-$1.08
billion
|
39
|
|
Abott
Labs
|
-$1.288
billion
|
35
|
|
Alcoa
|
-$1.951
billion
|
20
|
|
Allstate
Corp.
|
-$998
million
|
40
|
|
Altria
|
-$2.052
billion
|
19
|
|
American
International Group
|
-$1.253
billion
|
36
|
|
AON
|
-$1.706
billion
|
25
|
|
Baxter
International
|
-$1.099
billion
|
38
|
|
Boeing
|
-$3.804
billion
|
8
|
|
Caterpillar
|
-$1.462
billion
|
30
|
|
Chevron
|
-$1.321
billion
|
34
|
|
Cigna
|
-$1.410
billion
|
31
|
|
ConocoPhillips
|
-$2.182
billion
|
17
|
|
Delphi
|
-$3.976
billion
|
7
|
|
Delta
|
-$5.296
billion
|
5
|
|
Dow
Chemical
|
-$2.796
billion
|
14
|
|
DuPont
|
-$3.507
billion
|
10
|
|
Electronic
Data Systems
|
-$1.942
billion
|
21
|
|
Exelon
|
-$2.761
billion
|
15
|
|
Exxon
Mobil
|
-$11.502
billion
|
2
|
|
Ford
motor Company
|
-$12.306
billion
|
1
|
|
General
Motors
|
-$7.531
billion
|
3
|
|
Goodyear
Tire
|
-$3.122
billion
|
12
|
|
Hewlett-Packard
|
-$2.086
billion
|
18
|
|
IBM
|
-$7.382
billion
|
4
|
|
International
Paper Co.
|
-$1.659
billion
|
26
|
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
-$1.816
billion
|
24
|
|
Kimberly
Clark
|
-$1.226
billion
|
37
|
|
Lockheed
Martin
|
-$4.876
billion
|
6
|
|
Marsh
& Mclennan
|
-$1.518
billion
|
29
|
|
Motorola
|
-$1.894
billion
|
23
|
|
Northup
Grumman
|
-$1.618
billion
|
27
|
|
Pfizer
|
-$2.980
billion
|
13
|
|
Procter
& Gamble
|
-$2.353
billion
|
16
|
|
Raytheon
|
-$3.637
billion
|
9
|
|
Sara
Lee
|
-$1.537
billion
|
28
|
|
Tyco
|
-$1.410
billion
|
32
|
|
United
Technologies Corp.
|
-$3.139
billion
|
11
|
|
Viacom
|
-$1.372
billion
|
33
|
|
Xerox
|
-$1.918
billion
|
22
|
Source:
Standard & Poor's (July 2005)
Employees
run the risk of having their entire retirement plan wiped out,
as employees of United Airlines, Global Crossing, Enron and more
have personally suffered through. Investors run the risk of having
worthless stock, if a company can no longer compete due to the
legacy costs of pension plans.
In short,
companies which were founded before 1980, when companies took
on the responsibility of pension plans and guaranteed retirement
benefits to their employees, are far more vulnerable than newer
companies, which define their contribution into their employee's
retirement "savings account," without any guarantees
of how much money will be there upon retirement. As James Barth,
the Senior
Finance Fellow at the Milken Institute explains,
"Under
defined benefit plans, individuals knew the minimum amount that
they would receive. That's no longer the case. The investment
returns can be negative, not even just being low. So that too
means that individuals have to become more financially savvy."
The responsibility
for the retirement plan in a 401K or IRA is placed solely on your
shoulders (not the corporation) to make sound investment choices.
Any losses that are realized are borne by the you, the cmployee,
which is why a number of people were forced too continue working
in 2001/2002, even though they had reached retirement age. In
short, employees today are expected to get smart about investing,
or risk going broke, and investors are smart to look beyond the
headlines to examine the fundamental health of the corporation,
beyond the earnings reports.
The sectors
most likely to be impacted by pension plan liabilities are unionized
and founded before 1980, and are more concentrated in: Materials,
Consumer Staples, Energy, Industrials, Telecommunications and
Utilities. Those sectors that are least likely to have pension
plans in the red include: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary,
Financials and Health Care.
Getting financially
savvy is not quite as sexy as Jennifer Aniston gracing the cover
of Vanity Fair, but if you act now to get your nest egg
in order, you'll have enough money in retirement to keep buying
all those fashion magazines.
Other
articles of interest:
1.
Discount Brokerages Make Rollover IRAs Easy.
2.
10 Steps to Protect Your Retirement NOW.
3.
NASD's
Smart 401(k) Investing.
4.
Brokers and Lovers: It Pays to Pick a Good One.

|
|
Inflation,
the Price of Gas in China and 3rd Quarter Stock and Bond Performance.
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey
Advisors, LLC
 |
| Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC |
In the third
quarter of 2005, the stock market finally got off its seesaw and
added a second quarter of positive but unexciting returns. In
the process, stocks shrugged off hurricanes that did extensive
damage, higher oil prices, the likelihood of a widening deficit,
higher interest rates, the likelihood of more interest rate increases
by the Federal Reserve, and the usual summer doldrums.
It may be
that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has finally run out of ways
to cook the books, but the reported inflation rate is now at the
highest level in years and we still believe the actual inflation
rate is significantly higher. The result has been more interest
rate increases by the Federal Reserve, although increasing the
cost of money to fight inflation is roughly equivalent to expecting
gasoline to put out a fire. The demand for raw materials from
China and India currently exceeds supplies, and this is the root
cause of current inflation. Because of this, expecting higher
interest rates in this country to have much impact on inflation
is the equivalent of tilting at windmills. However, higher interest
rates from this point could easily harm the real estate market
and slow the economy further.
In the third
quarter of 2005, smaller companies again outperformed larger ones,
but this time growth mostly outperformed value. Energy and biotech
produced double-digit returns while investors bet that, with higher
energy prices, consumers would have less discretionary money.
For reference, here's the stock market and industry group scorecard
for the third quarter of 2005:
|
|
Symbol
|
6/30/05
|
9/30/05
|
Return
|
|
Dow Industrials
|
.DJIA
|
10,274.97
|
10,568.70
|
2.86%
|
|
NASDAQ Composite
|
COMP
|
2,057.00
|
2,151.70
|
4.60%
|
|
S&P 500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,191.33
|
1,228.81
|
3.15%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy
|
IXE
|
445.97
|
538.17
|
20.67%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
564.45
|
648.49
|
14.89%
|
|
Utilities
|
IXU
|
320.10
|
340.48
|
6.37%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
2,071.50
|
2,190.70
|
5.75%
|
|
Technology
|
IXT
|
200.64
|
209.87
|
4.60%
|
|
REITs
|
VNQ
|
58.70
|
60.45
|
2.98%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
IXI
|
294.23
|
301.63
|
2.52%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
IXR
|
227.61
|
232.92
|
2.33%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
IXB
|
278.67
|
282.23
|
1.28%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
.SICSS
|
183.01
|
184.62
|
0.88%
|
|
Health
Care
|
DRG
|
321.01
|
322.06
|
0.33%
|
|
Financials
|
IXM
|
293.84
|
294.05
|
0.07%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
IXY
|
328.37
|
325.03
|
-1.02%
|
In addition,
here's the equity market segment scorecard for the third quarter:
|
|
Symbol
|
6/30/05
|
9/30/05
|
Return
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
IJT
|
109.00
|
116.19
|
6.60%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
IJR
|
55.02
|
57.76
|
4.98%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
IJJ
|
66.76
|
70.00
|
4.85%
|
|
MidCap
|
IJH
|
68.50
|
71.82
|
4.85%
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
IJK
|
69.44
|
72.27
|
4.08%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
IJS
|
61.63
|
63.90
|
3.68%
|
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
IVW
|
56.50
|
58.58
|
3.68%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
IVV
|
119.11
|
123.00
|
3.27%
|
|
REITs
|
VNQ
|
58.70
|
60.45
|
2.98%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
IVE
|
62.34
|
64.13
|
2.87%
|
In the fixed
income market, the yield curve remained flat, but rates across
the board rose by low double digits. Last quarter we doubted that
the Federal Reserve wants to see the yield curve become inverted
(short term rates higher than longer rates), now we're not so
sure. Since nothing good ever comes from an inverted yield curve,
we keep hoping the members of the Federal Reserve will have an
attack of common sense. Unfortunately, we keep remembering that
we're dealing with government bureaucrats so we remain cautious
on bonds and are keeping maturities short and emphasizing quality
and liquidity in our bond portfolios.
|
Current
Yield
|
6/30/05
|
9/30/05
|
%
Change
|
|
90
day Treasury Bills
|
3.13%
|
3.55%
|
13.4%
|
|
5 Year
Treasury Bonds
|
3.72%
|
4.18%
|
12.4%
|
|
10
Year Treasury Bonds
|
3.94%
|
4.34%
|
10.2%
|
Overall, we
continue to expect economic growth to slow a bit this year. The
higher cost of energy coupled with increasingly restrictive Fed
policy will probably produce less robust economic growth in the
second half of 2005. However, we see no signs of a recession on
the horizon and expect corporate public relations departments
to do a good enough job of sandbagging to keep earnings coming
in ahead of expectations in the third and fourth quarters. Although
stock market valuations are in the middle of their historic range,
common stocks are still significantly undervalued relative to
current interest rates and we continue to expect stocks to outperform
bonds in 2005.
Paul Woods
is the President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in equities and fixed income.
He can be contacted at www.odysseyadvisors.com
or 310.568.4700.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Putting
Too Much Stock in Your Company - A 401(k) Problem.
 |
Jeff
Skilling, President and COO; Ken Lay, Chairman and CEO Joe
Sutton, Vice Chairman
source: 1999 Enron's Letter to Shareholders |
Investor
Alert from the National Association of Securities Dealers
With
major Enron and Worldcom trials completed or in the works, stories
of employees losing some or all their retirement income are back
in the news. Now is a good time to ask yourself if you hold
too much of your retirement nest egg in your employer's stock.
NASD is issuing
this Alert because it is concerned that employees who have the
opportunity to invest in company stock may be concentrating too
much of their retirement savings in a single security. NASD is
particularly concerned about employees who have all or most of
their 401(k) assets in their employer's stock. If the stock
takes a beating, so does your retirement savings.
No
Restrictions Can Lead to High-Risk Investing
Currently,
there are no restrictions on the amount of 401(k) assets that
can be held in company stock. While the Employee Retirement
Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), restricts traditional pension
plans (also known as defined benefit plans) from investing more
than 10% of assets in company stock, there is no similar restriction
on 401(k) plans.
Employees
can direct a high percentage of their contributions to company
stock, even if they are given other investment options.
Employer-matched contributions often come in the form of company
stock, further concentrating holdings in employer stock. A study
by the Employee Benefits Research Institute and the Investment
Company Institute found that employees who have the opportunity
to do so held more than 25% of 401(k) assets in company stock.
In the case of employees over the age of 60, almost 25% held more
than half their 401(k) savings in their employer's stock.
Even more startling, 16% of employees over the age of 60 held
more than 80% of their 401(k) savings in company stock.
The result: a non-diversified retirement portfolio that hinges
to a large extent on the performance of a single stock.
Learning
from History?
The
fall of Enron Corporation focused attention on the potentially
devastating effect of owning too much company stock. 57.73% of
employees' 401(k) assets were invested in Enron stock as it fell
98.8% in value during 2001. But employees at many companies still
have even larger percentages of their 401(k) assets in company
stock than Enron employees did.
What
Could Go Wrong If You Concentrate Retirement Savings in Company
Stock?
Simply
stated, if you put too many eggs in one basket, you can expose
yourself to significant risk.
In financial
terms, you are under-diversified: you have too much of your holdings
tied to a single investmentÑyour company's stock. Investing
heavily in company stock may seem like a good thing when your
company and its stock are doing well. But many companies
experience fluctuations in both operational performance and stock
price. Not only do you expose yourself to the risk that the stock
market as a whole could flounder, but you take on a lot of company
risk, the risk that an individual firmÑyour companyÑwill falter
or fail.
Restrictions
Can Limit Liquidity
There's
another potential problem with concentrating too much of your
savings in company stock. Your company may place restrictions
on your ability to buy or sell the stock, or transfer it to another
type of investment within your 401(k). This limits the control
you have on your finances.
Employer-matched
stock, in particular, often comes with restrictions. Some
companies require employees to hold the stock until they reach
a certain age, or until a specified date. This can spell
trouble. If the stock slides, you may be stuck on the sidelines
without the ability to sell and limit your losses.
Lockdowns
or blackouts can also occur. These are periods in which account
activity is frozen, generally to perform administrative tasks.
Usually lockdowns are for a short duration (a few days to a few
weeks), with employees given advance notice. Nonetheless, it's
possible that a lockdown could coincide with a slide in company
stock. This happened at Enron, when the stock declined more than
35% during a pre-scheduled two-week blackout.
How
Much is Too Much?
The
general consensus among financial experts is that an adequately
diversified portfolio should have no more than 10 to 20% of total
investment assets in company stock. If you concentrate much
more than that in company stock, especially in a 401(k) plan where
there are trading restrictions, you may expose yourself to more
company risk that it is wise to incur. Of course, there
is no single formula or percentage that suits all investors, so
you should consult a professional about what the right mix of
investments is for you.
If you are
one of the 8 million participants in 401(k) plans who have more
than 20% of assets in company stock, and this investment also
constitutes more than 20% of your overall investment portfolio,
you may want to consider re-balancing your investments to increase
diversification.
What
is Diversification?
Diversification
is an investment strategy for spreading your principal among different
markets, sectors, industries, and securities. The goal is to protect
the value of your overall portfolio in case a single security
or market sector takes a serious downturn and drops in price.
In short, diversification spreads your risk, while still seeking
a strong return on overall investment. NASD's
Smart 401(k) Investing learning center has additional
information about diversification
and rebalancing your portfolio.
Take
Control of Your Financial Future
To
achieve appropriate diversification, employees with company stock
should consider doing the following:
* Determine
your total exposure to company stock. Be sure to include stock
options, pension plans, employee-directed stock purchases and
company matches in your total. You may have additional exposure
to your company's stock through mutual funds in which your company
is part of the investment mix. Many investors didn't know how
fully exposed they were to technology and Internet stocks until
the bubble burst in 2000 and they saw declines not only in their
individual stock holdings, but in mutual funds that had investments
in these same companies. If your company stock holdings
exceed 20% of the value of your total investment portfolio, you
may wish to consider redistributing your assets across a broader
spectrum of investment.* Know
the restrictions, if any, on buying and selling company stock.
The more of your portfolio you have tied up in company stock with
restrictions, the more risk you incur.
* Read
your company's key SEC filings, including annual reports (10-K),
quarterly reports (10-Q) and reports of material events (8-K).
* Use metrics
such as betaÑa measure of the volatility of a stock relative to
an overall market index during a given time periodÑto evaluate
the level of risk your company's stock carries. Employees
whose company stock is subject to significant volatility or whose
company scores high on other risk measures should be particularly
wary of investing too large a percentage of their investments
in company stock.
* Read
analyst reports and other information from third-party sources
to evaluate the short and long-term prospects of your company's
stock performance. Don't rely solely on your employer's
advice or guidance for why you should invest in company stock.
* Maintain
reasonable expectations of the performance of your company's stock.
Striking it rich is hard to do, no matter how dominant or successful
a company is. All companies, even the most successful, have
their ups and downs.
It's
Your Retirement
Owning
company stock does allow employees to share in the financial success
of a company. But it also carries the risk that a company's
financial problems will become the employee's financial problems.
When it comes to investing for retirement, it's you, not your
employer, whose financial security ultimately is at risk from
overexposure to company stock.
In determining
how much you should invest in company stock remember that your
retirement is just thatÑyours!
Resources
For
additional information on saving for retirement, read NASD's Smart
401(k) Investing.
To receive
the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information
sign up for Investor
News.
Other
Articles of Interest:
Lessons
From Enron:
Power is Intoxicating. 11 Ways to Avoid Getting Drunk. by Natalie
Pace, CEO & founder, NataliePace.com.

|
|
Do
Good Corporate Ethics Make For Good Earnings?
by David
M. Glasser
 |
| David
M. Glasser |
It
would be nice to say that good corporate ethics lead to good earnings.
However, history and statistics do not support such a declaration.
While in some instances a company with positive ethical values
shows a consistent good rate of return, it is more readily apparent
that a company with poor ethical standards results in reduced
earnings, stock value and consumer support.
Business
Ethics Magazine annually publishes a list of the "100
Best Corporate Citizens". The list is determined by: return
to stockholders and service to stockholders, community, minorities
and women, employees, the environment, non-U.S. stakeholders and
customers.
Fannie
Mae (FNM), which had been on the list from 2000-2004, was number
one in 2004. In early 2005, Fannie Mae announced it was conducting
a reaudit and would be issuing an earnings restatement that may
total as much as $9 billion.
From
the end of 2004 until the end of September 2005, Fannie Mae stock
dropped from $73.81 per share to $41.34 per share. That means
if you had purchased 1,000 shares at the end of December, by the
end of September, there would be a paper loss of almost $32,470.
We
all recall the Enron debacle. If you had purchased 1,000 shares
of Enron stock on January 26, 2001 for $82.00 per share, on November
30, 2001, each share would have been worth $.26. If you were looking
for a tax write off, this would have been a good one. Your loss
from that investment would have totaled $81,740.
What
Is Ethics?
Defining
(as well as complying with a code of) ethics is not as easy as
it sounds. While general statements may find everyone in agreement,
when specific issues and situations occur, differences of opinions
as to how those issues and situations will be treated, will likewise
occur.
There is no
standard definition of ethics. Ethics
is not a stationary concept. Like society, it changes over time.
What is acceptable behavior in one era is not acceptable in another.
There may
also be circumstances where a person understands he/she may be
acting unethically, but they are acting for a "higher purpose".
For instance, if a starving man stole to feed his family, society
would look at that as being illegal and unethical. However, if
that is the only way he and his family can survive, then to him,
his actions are ethical because he is making certain his family
does not starve. To others it may simply be rationalization of
an illegal and unethical act. (We need only look at the recent
Hurricane Katrina incidents where some people took food, water
and diapers, while others took televisions, stereos, and other
items having nothing to do with survival. Still others took nothing.
A number of the network and cable talk shows discussed the ethics
of whether it made a difference between the item taken and the
reason it was taken).
A business'
values (and thus its ethics) may be determined by its leadership,
by society as a whole, by the community in which it exists, or
by the government.
While one
may act unethically without violating any laws, more and more,
laws are being enacted that encompass ethical mores. Whether this
is because of public disgust with the activities of a few companies
or individuals, or whether it is a sign of the changing beliefs
of society as a whole, is better left for another article.
Creating
and implementing a code of Ethics
Simply
creating a code of ethics is insufficient. An organization's values
must be clearly stated and understood, and it is essential that
an ethical culture must be established and promoted from top to
bottom. For public companies that means not only having a code
of ethics but living up to the code of ethics.
A code of
ethics is not simply an internal record for an organization's
employees. A code should be a significant tool in conveying to
the public, potential employees, vendors, and anyone else who
may have a relationship with the entity what it believes in and
how those beliefs will be implemented.
A code should
be part of a program to foster ethical conduct within a business.
This includes on-going training, open communication and fair enforcement.
The benefits
of adopting a code of ethics include: creation of an atmosphere
where ethical activities are the standard; ethical considerations
will become part of the decision making process; an opportunity
to show the public a dedication to ethical behavior; and creation
of a positive public identity.
The downside
is if the business fails to live up to the code of ethics, public
and consumer trust will thus be diminished. In addition, the ability
to entice good people to work for the business may be damaged.
A code of
ethics should not be created from the executives downward. It
should also not be taken straight from other codes of ethics.
For a code
to be workable, there must be consensus. This does not mean that
everyone needs to agree as to its content. But employees should
be involved in the evolution of the code. The code should reflect
the nature of the business as well as setting forth its guiding
principles.
A code of
ethics should not simply be written and then forgotten. It needs
to be easily understood. If people have questions, they should
be able to contact someone without fear of losing their jobs.
People should feel free to discuss ethical issues with co-workers,
supervisors and ethics officers. These communications not only
aid the person with the initial question, but also help others
in formulating answers to ethical questions.
The code needs
to be disseminated to the employees, and continually reinforced
through training, seminars and actions of the executives of the
business or governmental entity.
New employees
should be provided a copy at the time they are hired and sign
an agreement to follow the code.
The code should
also be sent to vendors, and made available to the public. The
business should provide the ability of vendors and members of
the public to comment on how they believe the code is working.
This gives additional insight that otherwise would not be obtained.
The code should
also be regularly reviewed to ensure it is accomplishing its goals.
If the goals are not being accomplished that could mean the code
has set forth unrealistic expectations, positive ethical atmosphere
is missing or some other reason that needs to be discovered so
that the code is meaningful.
Employees
should feel their jobs are safe if they report what they consider
to be ethical violations. Otherwise, chances are ethical violations
will go unreported.
Ethics
does make a difference
While
making decisions that are ethical may not be sexy in the sense
that it will result in no headlines, the word does get out, and
companies generally profit from their ethical attitudes.
In 2001, Administaff
(ASF), the nation's leading Professional Employer Organization,
had a difficult decision to make. Aetna Insurance, in apparent
violation of its contractual obligations to Administaff informed
it that insurance premiums would be increased immediately or the
policy cancelled. Administaff could have possibly passed the increase
onto its clients at that juncture or waited until the annual renewal
with the clients. If it waited, the result was going to cost the
company $25 million. If it passed the increase on immediately,
it was bound to lose customers. Administaff decided to "bite
the bullet" and honor its contracts with its clients and
shouldered the $25 million expenditure itself.
While the
stock took an initial tumble from $30.24 per share on January
31, 2001 to $2.70 on August 30, 2002, it has bounced back to over
$39.00 per share in October 2005.
Herman Miller
(MLHR), a manufacturer and distributor of office furnishings has
a long history of ethical behavior as well as corporate awards
and recognition. In 2005, the Michigan Minority Business Development
Council named Herman Miller its Corporation of the Year in the
commercial products sector for its ongoing efforts to create a
diverse and inclusive supply chain. In 2004, for the 16th
time in 18 years, Herman Miller ranked as the "Most Admired"
company in the furniture industry by Fortune Magazine.
Also in 2004, for the fifth year in a row, Herman Miller ranked
among Business Ethics Magazine's "100 Best corporate
Citizens". It was also selected for the Dow Jones Sustainability
World Index, an international stock portfolio that evaluates corporate
performance using economic, environmental and social criteria.
Over the last
two years, Herman Miller has shown an annual rate of return of
10.7 percent.
While monetary
profit is important for any business entity, a company also profits
from good public relations and the people it employees. In one
study, it was found that three out of four people refuse to purchase
from certain businesses, and business conduct was an important
reason to avoid a business. [1997 Cone/Roper Cause Related Marketing
Trends in "Does It Pay To Be Ethical?" Business Ethics
(March-April, 1997):15].
Unpublished
studies have shown a correlation between corporate responsibility
and increased profits. In addition, it would seem logical that
people would rather work for a business with high ethical standards.
If people are happier in their workplace, they are less likely
to look outside their work environment for other positions. This
results in lower turnover, and fewer employee related expenses.
In addition,
a business with a higher ethical value will be more apt to attract
a higher caliber of employee.
Of course,
a company still needs to produce and sell a product desired by
the consumer. It doesn't matter how ethical a company is, if the
product is not one sought by consumers, the business will not
last.
But, in the
end, there can be no doubt that good ethics makes good business
sense.
David M.
Glasser is a Managing Partner in the Law firm of Greenspan
Glasser & Rosson, a principal in the firm
Dispute Resolution Solutions and an adjunct professor teaching
Business Ethics at UCLA Extension. Mr. Glasser can be contacted
at dmglasser@ggrlaw.net.

|
|
Don't
be Tricked by Good Earnings Reports.
by Natalie
Pace, top-ranked stock picker, per TipsTraders.com
 |
| Natalie
Pace, top-ranked stock picker, per TipsTraders.com |
(Note: These
are not buy/sell recommendations. Always consult a certified financial
professional before buying or selling stock.)
Stats,
Facts, Quotes and Educational Information:
1 . Don't
Buy on Headlines of "Good News." On 10.17.05, General
Motors' stock climbed 7.5 percent to $30.09 on the NYSE, in its
biggest gain since June, after the automaker said it had reached
a deal with the United Auto Workers union to cut health-care costs.
GM also reported a wider-than-expected loss for the third quarter,
and has had three quarters of losses now, totaling $1.21 billion
in fiscal year 2005 and growing. IBM reported a dip in net
profits but still beat earnings expectations, and rose in share
price as a result. Both of these companies are on the watch list
for pension fund problems. (Please see the NataliePace.com article, "Don't
End Up Eating Cat Food," in this month's
ezine.) Remember that United Airlines also got a bump in share price
when they reached a deal with their labor unions, just a few months
before they declared bankruptcy. Now, their employees have had their
pension plans liquidated, and must rely upon the U.S. Government's
Federal Pension Guaranty for a fraction of what they were expecting
to receive. Think bigger picture than just near-term "earnings."
Another article worth reading is, "Will
Oil Crack Your Nest Egg" from the September
archived edition, vol. 2, iss. 9.
2.
Blue Chips and Pensions: Endangered Species? Take Action to Protect
Yours Now. The S&P 500 reported in July 2005 that 311 companies
are currently underfunded on their pension plans. Of the ten companies,
which owe the most in pension plans, two companies, Delphi and Delta
Airlines, recently filed for bankruptcy protection. United Airlines,
a corporation that has been in bankruptcy for three years, recently
cancelled their pension plan, with the approval of the bankruptcy
court. It could pay for you to read the above captioned article
in this ezine, and considering rolling over your pension into a
brokerage
IRA or Roth 401K. There should be no fee to rollover
your retirement plan, provided you do not take out any money. This
could save your nest egg, or that of a friend or family member.
Read this month's article, ÒCelebrities, Style and Parties. While
You Dream of the Good Life, Your Future May be Cat Food,Ó for a
list of 40 S&P500 companies that owe a billion or more to their
pension plans.
3. Santa Rally.
50% or more of the market gains are typically made in the 4th
quarter of the year. If you're looking to buy, make sure you're
not buying at a 52-week high, unless it's a company that you think
still has a lot of upside growth. If you're looking to sell, odds
are, at least historically, that there may be more upside to enjoy
if you wait until the winter holiday. See below for a breakdown
of historical market returns by month.
4.
15 BIG WINNERS, which keeps us at #1 in Annualized Returns
(according to TipsTraders.com). This hot news article still has
the proud honor of featuring fifteen companies that have posted
positive gains, versus seven that have gone south. Of the seven
that have gone south, we were most concerned with Krispy Kreme,
but are seeing signs of a renaissance (see the line item below for
details). Turnarounds are difficult to stomach, even the turnaround
of the most popular sweet on the planet, and a bankruptcy filing
still cannot be ruled out. OSI Pharmaceuticals, IMClone, Martha
Stewart Omniliving, News Corp, Sohu and Las Vegas Sands Corporation
are, in our view, all great companies with great products and/or
leadership. Sometimes it takes awhile for the rest of the investment
world to realize that. Jet Blue was taken off because airlines are
in disarray with high fuel costs. Love the airline, but can't trust
the sector, and Jet Blue is predicted to report its first unprofitable
quarter, 19 quarters of profitability, with a loss on the year.
5.
Note that Sunoco, NetGear and LifeCell have all been taken off of
the Hot News List and Put onto the Profit-Taking List. Challenges
for these companies have increased, and the run/ride since NataliePace.com
first featured the companies has been very profitable.
Bottom
Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon
your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio
diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher
risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns.
As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm
on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate
or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission
of providing the news and information you need to make better
choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always
consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling
any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot
Stocks
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. It may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they (outside of KKD, which might be a real
dud) are poised to continue performing well. There are never any
guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
10.28.05
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
Comments
|
|
Automatic
Data Processing
|
NO
|
ADP
|
$46.84
|
$46.84
|
47.20
40.37
|
--
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ"
|
|
Bioteq
Environmental Technologies
VERY
HIGH RISK
Penny
Stock in a great sector. If your stomach is lined with steel,
this could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk bet.
|
NO
|
TSX:
BQE
(Note
this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)
|
$.80
|
$1.05
|
$1.05
$.66
|
+31%
|
Water
treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water
in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Breakwater Resources,
Falconbridge, and Phelps Dodge. This company is only trading
on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Anthony Kana, one of
the founding directors retired in June. Loss of $694,000,
or 2 cents per share, for 2Q 2005. Patent for nickel recovery
is being filed.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
See
vol. 2, issue 8
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$37.83
|
$40.60
$23.02
|
+12%
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries,
in the right, growing sectors. Easy to access information,
attention to detail on site, indicates attention to detail
in management.
|
|
Gevity
Human Resources
|
No
|
GVHR
|
$26.48
|
$26.48
|
$29.00
$15.45
|
--
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ"
|
|
Intermix
(MySpace.com)
volume
2, issue 4
|
No
|
MIX
|
$7.49
|
$12.00
|
11.74
.51
|
+60%
|
News
Corp. bought Intermix for $12/common share on 9.30.05. Investors
will receive cash for their shares.
|
|
ImClone
(makers
of Erbitux)
See
volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article
Trading
at 52 week low.
|
No
|
IMCL
|
$34.48
|
$34.08
|
87.24
29.51
|
flat
|
BOD
approved $100 million in common stock buybacks during
the next two years. The news for what Erbitux is doing
for ovarian cancer patients could hardly be more impressive.
3Q results beat analyst expectations, but reflected much
higher costs and lower revenue from Bristol-Myer. There
were no sales in the 3Q to Merck. Costs jumped to $80.3
million compared with $49.9 million in the prior year's
quarter. Filed for FDA approval to use Erbitux on head and
neck cancer on 8.30.05, and established a national registry
for physicians to track best treatment practices in the
disease on 10.17.05, called LORHAN.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
VERY HIGH
In
turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows.
Taken
off S&P Midcap 400 effective 10.27.05.
|
NO
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$4.40
|
32.70
4.40
|
-57%
|
Freedom
Rings, LLC, KKD's Philadelphia franchisee, had filed a voluntary
petition for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Freedom Rings operates 6
out of the approx 360 Krispy Kreme stores and 50 satellites
located worldwide. Jeff Jervik, the former national VP of
operations for Pizza Hut, has been hired as executive vice
president of operations, effective immediately, and the
company is actively searching for a new CEO. KKD has
not filed for bankruptcyÑyet, and despite the lawsuits,
it appears that turnaround specialist Stephen Cooper is
pressing ahead, and don't forget that Michael Sutton, the
former chief accountant for the SEC, is on KKD's board.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
The
Venetian, Sands Macao
(1st
mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)`
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$33.11
|
53.98
33.10
|
-11.5%
|
The
Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian
Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. If
the impressive presence of the Venetian on the Vegas Strip's
profits aren't enough, the Sands Macao and Venetian Macao
and a planned resort on a nearby island are transforming
Macao into Asia's Las Vegas. Over 20 tradeshows -- attracting
an estimated 5,000-20,000 people per show have already been
booked for the Venetian Macao. Go to LasVegasSands.com,
click on Investor Information and read the Global Gaming
Expo Presentation to see how fast growing and vast the Macao
market is. Huge Consensus Insider selling, including
CEO, on 9.13.05 at $35.64, totaling $366 million, for trust
diversification purposes. Amounts to less than 7% of CEO
trust holdings of LVS.
|
|
Martha
Stewart Omniliving*
RISK:
MEDIUM
Management
says ad revenue is back, and merchandising is heating up.
|
NO
|
MSO
|
$25.91
|
$17.89
|
$37.45
$8.25
|
-31%
|
The
Apprentice got fired by the public, and Martha's daytime
show is getting disappointing ratings. Martha's Rules
to be Published in October 2005. MSO is projecting to break-even
on operating revenue in 4Q. The disappoint-mint of the
Apprentice shouldn't hurt MSO earnings in the future.
It's owned by Mark Burnett, and was largely a free advertising
vehicle for MSO. Deal with KB Home to build/market MSO homes.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Dividends
|
YES
|
NWS
|
$16.50
|
$14.97
|
19.41
14.97
|
-9.2%
|
Featured
article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol.
2, iss. 10. Bought Myspace, Scout Media and IGN Entertainment,
all IT companies, for far less than competitors are paying
for their holdings. As of 6.30.05, assets totaled $55 billion,
while annual revenue came in at appx. $24 billion. With
an MC of just $15 billion, we think investors will start
taking notice of this undervalued juggernaut.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$5.04
|
$8.90
$3.90
|
+180%
|
NataliePace.com
Company of the Year 2004 (archived edition 44). Director
Michael Ovitz purchased 3/4 of a million in May, at $4.90.
2Q earnings beat expectations: Net revenue totaled
$14.1 million for the quarter ended July 31, 2005, up more
than 60% from the same quarter last year. 3Q results
at the end of 11.05.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
|
YES
|
OSIP
|
$63.59
|
$22.57
|
98.70
22.57
|
-64.5%
|
3Q
results on 10.31.05. FDA review panel supported Tarceva
for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05, in 10:3 vote.
FDA decision is expected by 11.2.05. Genetic based "cancer
pill." 1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved
for lung cancer last November. Canadian regulators approved
Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on 9.21. Switzerland
approved Tarceva in March 2005. Partner of Genentech (DNA)
and Roche. 3Q results on 10.31.05. Morgan Stanley thinks
the shares should return to $40É
|
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
NO
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$152.52
|
164.30
84.53
|
+70%
|
Metals
demand is huge; supply is limited; stock price is high.
RTP bought back 8.7% of stock as of 5.05, to the tune of
US$780 million, and plans to buyback up to $1.5 billion
in 2005 and 2006. Analysts say pressure on price should
continue on high demand in China and Asia. Increased its
dividend by 20 per cent. Finds, processes and mines minerals:
copper, iron, coke (from coal), aluminum, titanium dioxide
and diamonds. Rio Tinto has been added to Jim Juback's 50
Best Stocks in the World List (eff. 9.05). Great press usually
means more buyers. Hang on, and enjoy the dividends, but
don't get sucked into buying high. Even Citigroup has taken
RTP down to Hold from Buy.
|
|
Sirius
|
YES
|
SIRI
|
$6.02
|
$6.02
|
9.43
3.72
|
--
|
Cheaper
prices and edgier programming, including Howard Stern (starting
1.06), Martha Stewart and Rolling Stones 24/7, have us betting
on SIRI over competition XMSR. Was last year's Santa Rally
present, with gains of over 100% in the last quarter of
2004. Could be as popular of a gift this year as well. SIRI
beat expectations, but posted a net loss of $134 million
in the third quarter on 10.27.05 due to higher programming
and marketing costs. Revenue rose, as subscribers were more
than 5 million, more than double from a year ago. XM radio
is installed in GM cars.
|
|
Sohu
|
YES
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$15.22
|
23.74
14.25
|
-13%
|
September's
feature company, in the "You Can Do Better Than Baidu"
article. Financial Times ranked Sohu in Top 10 Chinese Global
Corporate Brands on 9.6.05. (6 days after our article.)
Also, appearing as a Chinese IT play with all the hoopla
over Baidu. Reports earnings on 11.8.05 after market close.
|
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
Vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$22.31
|
$24.09
$12.00
|
+7.6%
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean Fund.
Russia
26.3%
Egypt
23.2%
Turkey
21.8%
Israel
10.5%
Hungary
6.5%
Energy
15.07%
Financial
Svcs 42.55%
Industrial
Materials 14.18%
Media
3.25%
Software
3.32%
Telecom
14.17%
|
|
Verisign,
Vol.
2, iss. 9
|
No
|
VRSN
|
$21.91
|
$22.69
|
$36.09
$17.02
|
+3.5%
|
Q3
2005 earnings reported on Wednesday, October 19th,
reflect 28% increase in revenue over last year, to $415
million. Net income was up to $45 million, over $40 million
last year, same quarter. Repurchased 9 million shares for
value of $215 million in the 3rd Q. Revenue shortfall
in the mobile content area is expected to improve, according
to CEO.
|
|
Yahoo
Vol.
2, iss. 10
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$33.84
|
$35.58
|
39.79
30.30
|
+5%
|
Featured
article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol.
2, iss. 10. Yahoo's music, just $11.99 monthly, is much
cheaper than iTunes, but iTunes continues to have 75% of
the market. Analysts attribute that to the devices that
Apple users can play their music on. 3Q Revenues were $1.330
billion for the third quarter of 2005, a 47 percent increase
compared to $907 million for the same period of 2004. Net
income for 3Q 2005 was $254 million or $0.17 per diluted
share, similar to last year's results for the quarter.
|
Stocks
in Profit-Taking Range.
Note: We may still like these companies (as we do Genentech and
Google) for the long term as companies (which means if you have
them in your 401K or long term portfolio, you might want to keep
them there), but are taking profits in shorter windows, based
on a market that is posting modest gains, with volatile movements.
We may look to add some of these great companies again, if the
price point should become attractive. In a market of modest gains
but high volatility, profits are made in shorter windows.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
10.17.05
(Close-out)
10.28.05
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains/Loss
since Close-out
|
Comments
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
Price
is trading near 52-week high. Volatile sector. Great future.
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$10.25
|
$17.53
$16.14
|
$25.00
$7.18
|
+71%
|
Surgical
and reconstructive products. Recall of products, taking
a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q to reflect the recall, NY
DA investigation of a company supplier of LifeCell (not
LifeCell). LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales
are growing. However, a hit like this investigation could
be devastating. Profit taking now before this story becomes
more ugly could be prudent. The FDA issued a warning on
10.26.05. 3Q 2005 earnings were strong, with revenue of
$24.5 million compared to $15.6 million for the third quarter
of 2004.
|
|
NetGear
RISK:
MEDIUM
Trading
in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$20.76
$19.28
|
$22.67
$8.85
|
+67%
|
Business
Week named NTGR as one of its100 Hot Growth Companies. Distribution
with Digital China, with 6,000 resellers and agents in Asia's
largest market should mean continued growth. However, Consensus
insider selling makes us nervous in a market with this much
volatility and with executives who are new to the game and
largely unproven. Profit taking in shorter windows has been
working this year. Third quarter 2005 net revenue increased
to $111.3 million, 10% year- over-year growth.
|
|
Sunoco
|
No
|
SUN
|
$34.50
|
$73.67
$72.07
|
$81.49
$32.35
|
+113%
|
Recent
court decision assesses after-tax damages of about $40 million
through Dec. 31, 2004, which Sunoco will record as a charge
in the third quarter. Shut down its LaPorte and Bayport,
TX polypropylene facilities and evacuated all its non-essential
personnel in TX on 9.22, due to Hurricane Rita. Company
press release says extended delays are expected. Oil should
remain strong, while supply is constrained and demand is
outrageous. However, near term hit to earnings has a chance
of being ugly.
3Q
earnings call on 11.3 at 4:00 p.m. EST.
|
Advanced Micro
Devices closed out 8.15.05 at $20.85, with 74.3% gains. ($21.37
10.17.05)
Genentech
closed out at $80.92, with 328% gains. (10.17.05: $84.20)
Google closed
out at $292.72, with 193% gains. (10.17.05: $305.00)
Jet Blue closed
out at $19.27, with -9% losses. (10.17.05: $19.77)
Pixar closed
out at $51.67, with 21% gains. (10.17.05: price $49.15)
Sirius closed
out at $6.60, with flat performance. (10.17.05: $6.15)
Sony closed
out at $34.50, with flat performance. (10.17.05: $33.46)
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.

|
|
Harvesting
Profits on Firms That Farm Out Payroll and Benefits .
by Natalie
Pace.
Article
and Stock Report Card
 |
| Natalie
Pace, founder & CEO, NataliePace.com |
Meri Ann Beck-Woods,
a small business owner and customer of Administaff (ASF: NYSE)
(ASF: NYSE), is only one of a growing number of small business
owners in the U.S. to turn over the servicing of their human resources
and benefit plans. As you can see, by reading Meri Ann's exclusive
Question and Answer with Administaff (ASF: NYSE) CEO, Paul Sarvadi,
in this week's ezine, Ms. Beck-Woods holds Mr. Sarvadi in great
esteem, as the "Anti-Enron" executive. But is that a
good reason to buy stock in Mr. Sarvadi's company?
It turns out
that now may be a better time to sell Administaff (if you're taking
your profit in shorter windows). That doesn't mean that you can't
make money or that you shouldn't invest in Administaff for the
long term (ASF: NYSE). It simply indicates that -- according to
our research criteria, which are centered on taking profits in
shorter windows during periods of more modest returns, i.e. Today's
environment -- now is a better selling than buying time
for Administaff (ASF: NYSE). Administaff's share price has jumped
over 200% since April of this year, based on a strong 2nd
quarter earnings result, which was reported on August 1, 2005.
In fact, that selling opportunity point of view is shared by many
of the corporation's executives, including CEO Paul Sarvadi, who
has cashed in over six million since August of this year (source:
MoneyCentral.msn.com).
A closer look
at the 2nd quarter results, which sparked the spike
in share price, reveals that the share price may have been pushed
up by investors who rely more on technical analysis, than on reading
the fine print. According to an Administaff (ASF: NYSE) press
release, which was made available on the day of the earnings announcement
(full disclosure is a positive sign for the executive team), approximately
$2.8 million of the increase in net income was due to moving the
annual sales conference and sales incentive trips to the 1st
quarter from the 2nd quarter. It will be interesting
to see if these technical traders are patient enough to hold their
shares if the 3rd quarter earnings report, scheduled
for November 1, 2005, reflects more modest growth. Certainly the
insiders didn't wait to find out.
Although Administaff
(ASF: NYSE) isn't NataliePace.com's pick to buy this month, the indicators
of future growth for this PEO
Sector have put two other companies on our radarÑnamely
Gevity Human Resources (GVHR: NASDAQ) and Automatic Data Processing
(ADP: NYSE). (Click on PEO
Sector to view the stock report card.) According
to the U.S. Commerce Department, small businesses represent more
than 99 percent of all employers, and employ more than half the
private work force. Small business entrepreneurs now create more
than two out of every three new jobs and generate about 50 percent
of the nation's economic growth.
The net profit
margins of booth Gevity and ADP are significantly higher than
Administaff's, at 6.6%, 13.10% and 1.8% respectively, and both
Gevity and ADP have price to earnings ratios that are lower than
Administaff's by more than half. Additionally, both Gevity and
ADP have enacted recent business initiatives and alliances that
portend auspicious growth. ADP is branching out into the brokerage
business, while Gevity is partnering with major organizations,
and has become the preferred HR Provider by the National Venture
Capital Association (as of 9.12.05). Gevity HR was added to the
S&P 600 Small Cap Index on 10.26.05, and since then, shares
have been under heavy accumulation by financial institutions (a
very positive sign).
Both Gevity
and ADP score highly in the executive suite for managing growth
through partnerships and product offerings, while keeping profit
margins in tact. Which of the companies do small business owners
prefer? We'd love to hear from you. Please email us at info@NataliePace.com
with your comments.
While NataliePace.com's
monthly featured company and stock report card are typically designed
for that smaller active trading portion of your portfolio (one
that you actively manage and limit your exposure on), with a sector
like this that is likely to be in favor for the foreseeable future
(or at least until benefit plans become a thing of the past),
you might consider adding one or both of these companies to your
nest egg as well. The dividends make the investment even more
attractive.
Natalie
Pace is not a broker, analyst or professional money manager. She
is, simply, a journalist who specializes in investigative financial
reporting, with an outstanding record of performance on the companies
featured in her ezine, NataliePace.com.
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.

|
|
Calender...
Don't
Miss NataliePace.com's online chat with members "sharing wisdom," the
Professional Business Women's Conference in Sacramento, world-class
opera under the direction of Placido Domingo, and the Software
Industry Awards nominations.
NataliePace.com's
calendar features Networking Luncheons, Conferences, Galas, Chats,
Teleclasses and other special opportunities! Check out what's
happening online at the Calendar section of the NataliePace.com web
site.

|
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For
more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
info@NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442 (toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE:
NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service, and does not operate
or act as one.
|
|