Vol.2 Issue 12 December 1st, 2005
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Quote of the Month:
"Too many borrowers, lenders, consumers, bankers, bond investors, stock investors, hedge funds and pension funds are taking on more risk than they should. And the end, when it comes, won't be pretty."

Jim Jubak, MSN.com commentator from his article, "Airlines and the Epidemic of Risk"

 



Peace on Earth: Weaving a Tapestry of Understanding.

by Her Majesty Queen Noor, of Jordan

Her Majesty Queen Noor of Jordan

A Reprint from Queen Noor's speech at the Salvation Army Dinner Gala, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on April 6, 2004

"The greatest oppressors are those who feel entitled to impose by force their idea of what is right. The greatest injustices in human history occur when people believe so strongly in their own ideology that they are willing to hurt others in its name." Her Majesty Queen Noor

Thank you for inviting me to join you this evening. It is inspiring to be here among people devoted to giving of themselves to help others in the most fundamental ways-- "to meet human needs in His name without discrimination." That kind of tolerance and genuine charity are what we need most desperately in the world today.

Charity Ñ we know it means love of our fellow human beings. It is that kind of love that drew me, at the very beginning of my political awareness, to march with Dr. Martin Luther King in Washington. It was that kind of love, the language of the heart, that allowed me, as an untrained, inexperienced, volunteer teacher, to communicate with struggling students in Harlem ghetto schools in New York in the 60s. It was that kind of love that guided me toward one of my original career goals Ñ in the Peace Corps. And it was that kind of love Ñ along with a more personal kind Ñ that led me to take a leap of faith, and join in marriage a man who shared that ideal of human charity. My husband and I were drawn together by a mutual devotion to public service, of giving back to society. In my case, it was crystallized by the first real adult conversation I had with my father, when he had recently given up a lucrative career in the private sector to head the FAA under President Kennedy.

He confided his worries about failing to make ends meet on a government salary, but he also shared with me that he was far more fulfilled in public service than by merely achieving for himself. In my husband's case, his sense of responsibility to others grew naturally from his Muslim faith and Hashemite heritage as senior direct descendent of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), and his position as King, leader and father figure to the entire Jordanian family. The sources were worlds apart. The feeling was the same.

You've probably heard of the phrase "the clash of civilizations." It first appeared in an essay by Samuel Huntington in the summer of 1993, describing what the author saw as looming, inevitable strife.

Today the phrase has become shorthand for a complicated history and a multi-faceted conflict. To deny a cultural aspect to the differences between the Middle East and America, of course, would be plainly wrong; but to reduce the clash to simplistic formulations is to miss an important opportunity for the kind of deep understanding that would invite the first steps to rapprochement.

As someone with roots in both East and West, who has spent most of her adult life trying to build bridges between Arab and American culture, I have come to phrase the debate differently - not as a clash between Islam and Christianity, or between East and West, but between the forces of intolerance and the forces of understanding. In my work with the United Nations and human rights groups, I have time and again seen that the clashes that impede progress begin with those who insist their way is the only way; who paint the world in black and white.

No one culture has a monopoly on either virtue or intolerance; such qualities are not apportioned geographically, or by religion. Advocates of compassion and peace can be found in all houses of worship. I should know Ñ my Grandfather was an Eastern Orthodox Christian Arab who emigrated to the United States and converted to Christian Science when he married my Grandmother. I was raised by my parents to find my own path, and converted to Islam when I married.

But I also know that a great gulf exists between those who are genuinely willing to listen to and empathize with others, and those who are not.

The greatest oppressors are those who feel entitled to impose by force their idea of what is right. The greatest injustices in human history occur when people believe so strongly in their own ideology that they are willing to hurt others in its name. The ideology can be one of self-preservation and lust for power, as with dictators. It can be paternalistic, viewing the oppression of women, minorities, and the otherwise disenfranchised as "for their own good." Or, it can be a so-called defensive policy that targets all dissent as a threat that must be dealt with preemptively. All of these arguments have been used in one way or another to justify injustice and conflict.

Faith, we all know, remains one of the most compelling wellsprings of human action, and so, tragically, the justification for political coercion is often cloaked in the language of religion. We have seen how the perverted actions of a violent fringe have hijacked the great faith of the prophet Muhammad (PBUH) for its own ends.

And yet Islam has no monopoly on radical fundamentalism. Sadly, Christianity, too, has been used as a pretext for "Holy War" Ñ not the Salvation Army's war on want and despair, but violent conflict from the Crusades a thousand years ago, to "ethnic cleansing" in the Balkans in the last decade. Jewish extremists also use violence to further their distorted aims; one of them killed Itzhak Rabin for daring to contemplate peace. As you know all too bitterly here, terrorist threats in America come far more frequently from Aryan-rights fanatics spouting twisted Christian dogma than from Arabs or Muslims. But to single out a religion because it is used as a cover for evil is exactly the kind of black-and-white thinking that gives rein to the abuse in the first place.

It is convenient for many pundits to describe these affronts as a "clash of civilizations," and to promote the view that cultural differences are hard-wired, that no amount of dialogue will change the dynamic of conflict and that geopolitical power politics, backed by force, is the only way to manage these crises. I couldn't disagree more strongly.

We cannot abandon the argument to the extremists. We must rescue faith from the forces of intolerance. Moderates of all creeds must embrace their shared, universal values, and defy those who cloak hatred in religious rhetoric. We must not let the idea of "a clash of civilization" become a self-fulfilling prophecy, heightening the fears of people who think in black and white.

What has been lost in the seemingly endless news reports on so-called Islamist violence is that Islam itself is not inherently violent, intolerant or closed-minded. It was conceived as a continuation and culmination of the other monotheistic faiths Judaism and Christianity, and shares many of their principles including justice and charity. Two requirements of Islam, zakat, and sadaqa, will I think sound familiar to youÑ tithing to support the house of worship and additional charity to feed, clothe, and tend to the needs of the poor, infirm, widows, orphans, and homeless. There is a passage that seems particularly appropriate: "On the day of judgment God Most High will say, "Son of Adam, I was sick and you did not visit Me." He will reply, "My Lord, how could I visit Thee when Thou art the Lord of the Universe!" He will say, "Did you not know that My servant was ill and yet you did not visit him? Did you not know that if you had visited him you soon would have found Me with him?" I know that you live by these precepts every day Ñ but this is not the Gospel passage you are used to Ñ it is from Muslim Holy Scripture, and it emphasizes how close our faiths really are.

Islam emphasizes equality, tolerance, and respect for other faiths. The Qur'an prohibits compulsion in religion and forbids violence except in self-defense: "Allah loves not the aggressors" and "let there be no hostility except to those who practice oppression." Far from ordering all Muslims to kill all unbelievers the Qur'an emphasizes that Muslims, Christians and Jews all worship the same God.

It acknowledges its kinship with the other great monotheistic religions, whose followers it calls the "People of the Book" (The Torah, Bible and Qur'an ). Islam recognizes their shared origin, but also their diversity, and calls upon believers to value other cultures: "O mankind! We created you from a single (pair) of a male and a female, and made you into nations and tribes, that ye may know each other (not that ye may despise each other)."

Founded on such injunctions towards tolerance and equality, early Islam was a wellspring of human rights at a time when they were almost unknown. There was remarkable freedom of religions worship throughout the Muslim world during its early expansion. An early Muslim caliph offered feuding Christian factions the opportunity to work out their disputes under the auspices of his court, and Jews fleeing persecution by the Inquisition received sanctuary in Muslim-ruled Spain.

Most of us here would agree that religion is fundamental to human life. Let us not confuse fundamental with fundamentalist.

The test comes when one's principles appear to conflict with the rights and needs of others. It is one thing to be willing to die for one's beliefs Ñ but quite another to be willing to kill for them. And, those who hijacked our faith on that dreadful day 9/11 sinned (in my view) against Islam which expressly forbids violence toward the innocent.

Tragically, insecurity grows from frustration and anger. People who feel they have nothing left to lose can resort to desperate acts. From long experience, I know that the majority in the Middle East long for freedom, and control over their own destinies. They want and deserve no less than freedom fighters who two and a quarter centuries ago, waged a war for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. For them, as for people everywhere, true security derives from a sense of freedom, hope and opportunity. And that security is the ultimate source of peace.

This security can be achieved, I believe, through at least three interrelated priorities: education, women's empowerment, and action through partnership. I know you appreciate the importance of these, because in their focus on women and children, they are very much allied with the Salvation Army's mission.

First, education. There is a serious knowledge and communication gap between East and West, and to bridge that gap, each side must strive to educate itself and reach out to communicate with the other. Education is supremely powerful Ñ more powerful in the long term, than even the most potent weapons. In the first place it provides people with the techniques they need to operate in an increasingly complex environment benefiting us all by developing the modern world's most precious resource, the human mind. But more important, education can be the most effective tool for increasing global security.

Islam places the highest value on learning, a fact that has been obscured by sensationalistic news stories about terrorist training camps masquerading as "madrassas." Education in the Golden Age of Islam, a thousand years ago, emphasized independent, creative, analytical thinking, linked to the larger world Ñ and planted the seeds of Western liberal education. The Islamic reverence for scholarship transmitted and enhanced new ideas from the East, ranging from mathematics, to music, to medicine. Islam spread enlightenment, justice and equity, intellectual creativity and the concept of a humane society, and through the preservation of knowledge helped bring about the end of a dark age in European history. Today a renaissance of this kind of enlightened, broad-minded education can nurture the security we all seek.

Peace-centered education can give people the ability to open their minds, to ask the right questions, to look at the world from others' points of view. It can give them the skills they need to make their voices heard, without resorting to violence. I know that those of you who work with Boys and Girls Clubs have seen this principle in action.

In our region, I have seen the bitter enmity of previous generations overcome, transcended by young people encouraged to meet and interact in an atmosphere of trust. Seeds of Peace, for example, founded after the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, brings together youth from conflict-torn regions to begin to break down the barriers of ignorance and prejudice. For a time, they live together, and work to build mutual understanding and respect; to value communication over confrontation. When they go home, they continue to hold out their hands and hearts to each other.

Photo Credit: SeedsofPeace.org

Even now Ñ especially now Ñ Seeds graduates (in the Middle East) phone or e-mail across conflict lines to comfort their friends in the midst of the worst violence their region has seen. They also inspire their families and neighbors to take a chance on hope and humanity. They have stared hatred in the face and refused to succumb. They are living proof that people can love their own country, and also love their neighbors.

The movement towards peace education is growing. More than 100 US colleges and universities now have programs in conflict resolution. Internationally, there are a wealth of other programs I have worked with, from the United World Colleges, a network of 10 international equal opportunity colleges across the globe that foster cross cultural understanding and peace, to the United Nations International Leadership Academy in Amman. All, like Seeds of Peace, are predicated on the idea that bringing people of different backgrounds together to talk, to listen, and to learn is the surest route to tolerance and peace.

Peace grows not only from goodwill and understanding, important as those are, but from concrete results which I have seen these programs produce, by motivated people pooling their ideas and resources in networks and forming creative coalitions to solve real problems in their own communities, across their countries, regions and the globe. This kind of education for peace, and indeed peace itself, is impossible without respectful dialogue based on genuine listening.

Dialogue, rather than a debate that one side must win, or an inflexible exchange of entrenched positions, allows the voices of tolerance to be heard above the rhetoric of a "clash."

The second priority is the empowerment of women. 51% of the world's population is women, two-thirds of the world's work is done by women, yet they represent 60% of the world's poor, generate only 10% of the income and own only 1% of property. In the Middle East, although female education has made marked progress in the past 30 years, half of Arab women are still illiterate, and they suffer from social, legal and economic discrimination perhaps more severe than anywhere in the world, causing extreme development distortions.

Given such sobering figures, perhaps I shouldn't have been so surprised, when I first married, that reporters were constantly asking me how a liberal, progressive American woman could go live in such a backward and oppressive culture.

This was one of the many stereotypes about Middle Eastern societies that I have spent most of my adult life working to dispel, and, like many stereotypes, it was based on a half truth. Those reporters did not know the Arab women I did Ñ the doctors, lawyers, professors and entrepreneurs.

Few westerners realize that 7th century Islam granted women political, legal and social rights then unheard of in the West, in fact, rights women in this country still struggled for in the 20th century, such as the equal right to education, to own and inherit property, to conduct business, and not to be coerced into marriage, basing those rights on the equality of men and women before God. This when the rest of the world considered women chattel.

Coercive traditions in Muslim countries are not mandated in the Qur'an, but are holdovers from pre-Islamic cultures, or the cultural residue of colonialism. They do not reflect the beliefs of the majority of Muslims or the teachings of the Prophet himself. The oppression of women in the Arab world is not because of Islam, but contrary to it.

Women are central to any definition of human security. I have seen in my work, and studies confirm, that the position of women is the best marker of a country's development. Increasing women's economic empowerment may be the single most direct route to improving the lives of the less fortunate: their work reduces poverty and hunger, promotes improvements in maternal, child and general health, enables women to pursue education for themselves and their children, and gives them the confidence to make their voices heard, in the family, the community and even in national government.

But equally important, women must be involved in building peace. They suffer disproportionately in war; they and their children make up 75% of refugees, and they are at greater risk for violence, poverty and malnutrition. They are most vulnerable victims during conflict, and the ones left to pick up the shattered pieces of their societies, as well as their own lives, when it is over.

Women bear the brunt of violence, but their voices are ignored in conflict resolution, community rebuilding and government planning. And this is not only unjust, but also unwise. Women bring key strengths, talents and unique perspectives to the quest to resolve conflict and establish genuine political freedom. On the most basic level, peace begins in the community, and women hold that community together. In working for what is best for their families, they can cut across ethnic, religious and tribal lines, and break through obstacles to reconstruction. Organizations like Women Waging Peace have formed a network of peace-builders who use the power of modern technology and women's unique perspectives to cut across political and doctrinal boundaries and help ravaged communities recover from conflict.

I have worked with women who, under the most repressive possible circumstances during the Taliban regime, ran community services, schools for girls, and health care for women out of their homes. And who now are, playing a crucial role in the social, and political reconstruction of their society.

The Mano River Union Women's Peace Network brings women together to end conflict in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Israeli and Palestinian women have worked with each other Ñ electronically, if violence prevents it physically Ñ in organizations like Jerusalem Link and the Jerusalem Center for Women.

Peace networks of courageous women are raising their voices Ñ and sometimes risking their lives Ñ in conflict areas around the world from Columbia to the Balkans to the international Women in Black peace network first founded in Israel in 1988. UNIFEM awarded the Serbian Women in Black the Millennium Peace Prize for their civil disobedience against Slobodan Milosevic. Senator George Mitchell said about the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland: "The emergence of women as a political force was a significant factor in achieving the agreement. Women were among the first to express their weariness of the conflictÉ Overall in achieving the level of stability now enjoyed, women's involvement at all levels was a very important factor."

If freedom is to take root in the Middle East and the world, it is time to bring women back into partnership, especially in pursuit of peace.

But there is one more crucial element in the fight against fanaticism, without which the other two count for little: action through partnership. The most powerful educational programs and the most intensive efforts of women peace builders will change nothing if those in power do not listen and respect the perspectives of those who suffer the most. No amount of public diplomacy can assuage anger in the Middle East towards U.S. and Western policies on the ground as long as the occupation of the Palestinian Territories continues. America's efforts to build cultural bridges to the Middle East will be held in suspicion as long as its policies appear primarily self-interested and contradictory.

The core values of modern Western culture are tolerance, freedom, democracy and human rights, but tragically, many throughout the world see the United States and its allies abandoning, in the name of security, the very values they claim to protect. Certainly, those in positions of authority in the Middle East must do their utmost to curb the violence spawned by a fanatical minority in their midst, and to encourage the forces of moderation by opening up political and economic systems, safeguarding human rights and giving sustainable development priority over military buildup.

Security requires action as well as words. But that action cannot be unilateral and coercive. It must be mutual, positive and cooperative. Recent events make it quite clear that successful international action is impossible without international cooperation.

Besides the inevitable resentment that builds when one nation intervenes unilaterally in another, no nation, even the most powerful, can change the world alone. For reasons of morality, legitimacy and practicality, global intervention must be based upon international norms and involve credible multi-lateral institutions Ñ especially the U.N. I have worked in various forms of partnership with the United Nations for a quarter century, addressing issues from hunger to the environment to refugees to children's welfare, and scores of others, and I can tell you that the UN, whatever its challenges today, is one of the most powerful engines for cooperation ever created by humankind.

The UN epitomizes dialogue among nations but dialogue is perhaps even more crucial among people. The recent Geneva Accord was the fruit of cooperation between people exhausted by violence and political stalemate in the Middle East who dared to defy the inflexible extremism of their own party leadership, and had the moral courage to compromise. As one of the Accord's architects put it, "Today we are extending our hands in peace for peace. Our critics say that officials should make such agreements, not representatives of civil society. We could not agree more" he said. "But what do we do if officials do not meet, if governments do not negotiate? We cannot wait and watch as the future of our two nations slides deeper into catastrophe."

King Hussein, one of the world's senior statesmen and a driving force behind a wealth of peace treaties, inspired the different people of the region to understand what he believed so deeply, that peace is not made among governments, but among peoples; that it is written not only on pieces of paper, but must be enshrined in the hearts of those who live together side by side, who sacrifice for and sustain real peace.

It is hard to be a passionate moderate, as my husband was, but that is what we need now, in every culture. It is especially difficult because tolerance, by its very essence, cannot be imposed. Coercion is easier than persuasion. To take refuge in extremism and condemn others on the basis of half-truths and exaggerations is fairly simple. But to pay attention to nuance, especially the nuances of other cultures, and still be able to act decisively, is a delicate balancing act. Still, it can be done. As Salvation Army volunteers prove every day, conviction and compassion can go hand in hand.

We are not facing a new clash of civilizations. We are seeing civilization in its age-old struggle against inhumanity. Fanaticism has always bedeviled mankind, but we cannot abandon mankind because of it. Neither can we wrap ourselves in a comforting blanket of dogma, to keep us from facing the hard questions.

Through education, communication and action, people like you who believe in tolerance, compassion and the rights of others can join forces to reinforce the global community of shared benefits, responsibilities and values. It has been said that there are two kinds of people in the world: those who divide people into two types, and those who do not. This aphorism has more than a grain of truth: It is so much easier to divide the world into us vs. them than to praise the richness of its diversity. But it is in the glory of diversity that true dialogue among civilizations is forged.

Yes, perhaps we need an army, but an army like yours Ñ an army of compassion to fight not against other countries and cultures, but to wage war against intolerance wherever it is found. That is a battle in which everyone wins.

We must embrace the values that we share. The great Abrahamic religions; the three faiths, Judaism, Christianity and Islam, believe in the supremacy of one God, benevolent and merciful and concerned for the welfare of all life on earth. These three faiths spring from the same root, the faith of Abraham, all three teach common principles, which can and should be a unifying force among people. To respect both knowledge and belief, to allow all human beings equally to serve the creator, the creation, and one another Ñ these are values that reverberate through all holy texts. The Ten Commandments and the Golden Rule are primary guiding tenets of all three. In the words of the Prophet, Mohammed Ñ "none of you is a believer until he wants for his brother what he wants for himself".

For all of the people of the book, this is a holy season. For all their differences, these holidays share an emphasis on sacred contemplation, and the universal values of mercy, understanding and forgiveness. We need to let this kindred nature of these great religions guide us. For all our differences, we need to concentrate on the values we share Ñ and to quote another great scripture verse, "the greatest of these is charity."


Cleaner & Greener. Is Alternative Energy the Next Big Thing?

by Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

Paul Woods

The potential market is huge. So are the risks. There are a total of about 30 stocks with varying degrees of exposure. Almost all have short track records, are losing money, bleeding cash, and will need more money from investors to survive. The hot money crowd is piling in and, in the last few months, some stocks have increased dramatically on not much more than hopes and dreams. If you're thinking "been there, done that", you're right. In the 1980s, biotechnology companies overcame these problems to become the next big thing. In the 1990s, it was Internet stocks. This decade, with a few more breakthroughs, it could be alternative energy.

In the meantime, however, this industry still has cost and other issues that limit its widespread use. For alternative energy to become the next big thing, we'll need large capital infusions and continuing breakthroughs in technology. This industry is heavily subsidized in some developed countries, and taxpayers will have to keep paying part of the bill to keep demand growing over the short term. It would also be helpful if energy prices remain relatively high for a few more years to narrow the cost difference and keep these technologies on a glide path toward profitability. The risks are enormous, but the prize is a much bigger share of a global energy market amounting to trillions of dollars.

The Market
If we look at BTU consumption, our energy has come from the following sources in the last 15 years.

1989

2004

Petroleum

40.29%

40.13%

Natural Gas

23.21%

22.99%

Coal

22.49%

22.53%

Nuclear

6.60%

8.23%

Biomass

3.61%

2.85%

Hydro

3.34%

2.73%

Geothermal

0.37%

0.34%

Wind

0.03%

0.14%

Solar

0.07%

0.06%

Total

100.00%

100.00%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy

As you can see, fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) account for over 85% of our energy consumption and their share of the market has remained fairly constant. While this drives most environmentalists crazy, it's a rational response to the availability and low cost of these sources of energy. With their low cost, there was little incentive to conserve and demand continued to grow at just over 1% per year.

For our energy consumption patterns to change, something had to happen to change the dynamics. In this case, we should thank SUV owners and the Chinese for finally tilting the balance. The demand for fossil fuels is finally starting to overwhelm supplies and prices are going up. At the same time, technology is continuing to reduce the cost of alternative energy and clean alternatives are closer to taking an increasing share of what is probably a $1 trillion market for energy in the U.S and several times that on a global basis.

Wind
Wind turbines are packaged systems that include the rotor, generator, turbine blades, and drive or coupling device. The wind turns the blades of a windmill-like machine. The rotating blades are attached to a shaft that turns as the blades rotate. The turning shaft typically either powers a pump or turns a generator that produces electricity.

Due to recent breakthroughs in wind turbine design, this is the only clean energy technology with a cost of producing electricity that's comparable with fossil fuels at the present time. Site selection is critical as winds in the range of at least 10-15 mph are required for the cost effective production of power. However, there are also a few obstacles. The enormous wind turbines are eyesores that limit site availability. They are also expensive to build, are usually located some distance from the demand for power, require maintenance, and only produce power when the wind blows.

Strangely enough, the biggest potential problem is that birds dumb enough to fly into the rotors usually end up dead. While this wouldn't cause Charles Darwin to lose any sleep, it hands environmentalists and NIMBYs a nuclear weapon to use against these operators. These groups managed to destroy the economics of nuclear power through endless court challenges and skyrocketing legal costs, and the Endangered Species Act potentially gives them the power to do the same to this industry.

Even with the problems, there are still plenty of locations available according to one expert in the industry. The Sioux Indians in the Dakotas appear to be sitting on the equivalent of the Saudi Arabia of wind, and he believes this technology has the potential to eventually provide 5% or more of this country's energy needs. However, assuming you're willing to deal with the environmental risks, finding a way to make money on the wind is still difficult as the companies making the most progress in this area are huge, like General Electric, and wind energy is a small part of their total business.

Fuel Cells
A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device that generates electricity from a variety of fuels, using a combustion-free process discovered more than 150 years ago. As a result, fuel cells don't produce the pollutants commonly associated with fossil fuels. These are also silent, compact, and can be used for many different power applications. They are similar to batteries in that they come in a variety of sizes, are capable of powering everything from cell phones to buses, and can be combined to increase power.

These run on a variety of fuels and even waste gasses from water treatment plants can be converted into electricity using fuel cells. For systems designed to consume hydrogen directly, the only by products are electricity, water, and heat. When a fuel cell consumes natural gas or other hydrocarbons, it produces some carbon dioxide in addition. However, the carbon dioxide produced is much less than produced by burned fuel, and it's emitted in a concentrated form which makes capture and storage much easier.

Since wind and solar produce power at the mercy of the weather, the ability to produce power 24 hours a day is the most compelling thing about fuel cells. These were originally developed to supply electric power for the space program in the 1960s and were hideously expensive. As the cost has come down, they've found wider use in military bases and commercial buildings and these will have a much broader range of potential uses when costs come down further. However, it's difficult to get too excited about a technology that mostly maintains our dependence on the handful of lunatics that control fossil fuels. Renewable hydrogen is the more interesting fuel, but whether the required infrastructure will ever be built out remains an open question.

Solar

Installing Evergreen Solar panels on a National Park Service building at the White House
Photo credit: "Evergreen Solar"

Of the three major alternative energy technologies, solar is the one that curls our toes. Solar cells are semiconductor devices that convert sunlight into electricity using a process known as photovoltaic. They have no moving parts, require almost no maintenance, have zero emissions, are totally silent, and can connect to the existing infrastructure. The simplest are used to power watches and calculators while the more complex systems can free homeowners from electric bills.

However, solar still has a few problems to overcome. The biggest is that this is still the most expensive source of clean energy. For the time being, it would be helpful for energy prices to remain high and narrow the cost difference. In addition, the polysilicon used to produce most solar panels remains in critically short supply and prices have risen about 80% in the last 18 months. This situation may not be resolved until 2008, and raw material constraints may limit production and put pressure on profit margins over the near term. The final problem is that the production of power from solar is intermittent and dependent upon the sun.

As in wind technology, it's location, location and location that drive the economics of solar. The more sunny days in a year, the more a solar system will be producing energy. The economics favor the southwest over the northeast in the U.S. and inland locations over coastal. The economics also favor connecting solar panels to the electricity grid as opposed to having to use rechargeable batteries or other devices to store the energy produced.

Solar is typically an expensive system to install, but once installed, the subsequent costs are low. As a result, it makes sense for a home that an owner plans to keep a long time. Even though it's expensive, it's cost effective for remote locations not covered by the electricity grid and is useful in growing third world countries that have a constant problem with power reliability and availability. As a result, according to a recent article in the New York Times, the global market for solar energy systems is estimated to be around $10 billion and growing at about 35% per year.

As we think this is by far the most interesting clean energy technology, we plan to explore solar in more depth in an upcoming article.

Subsidies
I'm part of a vanishing breed that still believes in free markets, but enough of realist to know that politicians have a need to be perceived as doing something about big problems. Our current energy situation appears to be one of those things that will have politicians from both parties falling all over themselves to provide a big government solution. Rising energy prices are beginning to strain household budgets. In addition, there are legitimate security concerns with the present situation and a strong desire for energy independence. Finally, politicians appear to have a need to appease a noisy group of environmentalists who are deeply troubled that our planet is warmer than it was during the last ice age and believe that fossil fuels are somehow responsible for a cycle of global warming that began over 200 years ago.

The result of these concerns is likely to be more government subsidies, and we expect solar to receive the vast majority. For those of you concerned about an industry that feeds at the public trough, try to remember the last time that government subsidies on anything were cut. With the latest rise in energy prices, we think there's a very high chance that state and federal subsidies for clean energy will expand and more people will decide to get some of their tax dollars back by buying one of these systems. Even though these technologies will probably become competitive with fossil fuels by the end of the decade, we'd also be willing to bet that clean energy subsidies will remain in place long after the need for them has disappeared.

Costs
The cost of producing energy is still the biggest issue for this industry. To gain a bigger share of the energy market, costs have to keep coming down, subsidies need to remain in place or expand, and it wouldn't hurt if oil prices remained high. However, given the huge potential market, it's a good bet that enough capital and ingenuity will be thrown at the remaining problems to make alternative energy competitive or even cheaper than fossil fuels by the end of the decade. According to one website, here's the cost per kilowatt-hour of each:

Conventional Power - 3-5 cents per kWh
Wind Turbines - 5-10 cents per kWh
Fuel Cells - 10-15 cents per kWh
Solar - 20-40 cents per kWh

Source: http://www.solarbuzz.com/DistributedGeneration.htm

Since the federal government as well as most state and local governments are dying to use taxpayer dollars to help you purchase part of one of these systems, the economics are not as bad as they look. For anyone considering clean energy, there's a comprehensive listing of all the tax breaks available at http://www.dsireusa.org/. It's also worth noting that, in California, an initiative to install solar panels on a million roofs was sponsored by the Governor but killed by Democrats in the Assembly because of trade union lobbying. However, it's likely that the Public Utilities Commission will create a rebate program of its own by the end of the year, based upon the bill.

It should also be noted that the cost of producing conventional power rises dramatically during periods of peak electricity demand. In the middle of a hot summer day in states with aging infrastructure and tight supplies, it can cost up to 30 cents per kWh to find enough electricity to supply peak demand. That's when solar is producing maximum electricity and the economics of fuel cells also become viable. As it becomes more difficult to build new power plants in some states because of endless court challenges and bureaucratic red tape, utilities may very well turn partially to alternative energy to supply new demand.

It's a pretty good assumption that the cost of conventional power has risen significantly since the cost statistics shown above were published. In addition, depending upon where you live, different tax incentives can reduce the cost of these systems by 50% or more. As a result, the economics of these systems are probably coming closer to an inflection point that favors the use of clean energy.

Investing in This Industry
Investing in companies that have a limited track record and are losing money and bleeding cash in a developing industry isn't for everyone. If you need income, are risk averse, or have a heart condition or nervous disorder, don't even think about it. Even if these stocks produce a payoff, it's certain to be a very bumpy ride requiring a strong stomach.

For someone that wants exposure to this industry but isn't interested in closely monitoring his or her holdings, a good choice is the WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio, symbol PBW. It's an exchange-traded fund with a relatively low (.6%) expense ratio that invests in a broad range of alternative energy stocks, including some larger and established companies with a clean energy component.

For disclosure purposes, it should be mentioned that Odyssey Advisors LLC has investments in Distributed Energy Corporation (DESC) and Evergreen

Solar (ESLR) for a select group of clients. This is not a recommendation, please do your own homework before investing in any of these companies.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Paul Woods is the President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equities and fixed income. He can be contacted at www.odysseyadvisors.com or 310.568.4700.


Santa Rally or Boxing Day?

by Natalie Pace, Founder and CEO, NataliePace.com

Natalie Pace

The Santa Rally is historically a very predictable phenomenon. As you can see from the below chart, which lists average monthly returns, the period of November through January has a much larger monthly return rate than July through October. Over 50% of the gains in the stock market each year are, most reliably, made in the 4th quarter.

 

 

 

S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns 1928-2002

Period

S&P 500

NASDAQ

November - January

1.88%

2.53%

November - June

1.39%

1.52%

July - October

.21%

-.13%

Full Year

1.00%

.97%

(source: OdysseyAdvisors.com)

However, this year, there are a number of factors that mitigate the scenario. With rising interest rates, simmering inflation, ballooning budget deficits, Fading Blue Chips, pension fund problems, and a falling presidential approval rating, those bags of coal might be enough to soil the holiday spirit. Also, the first year of a presidential term tends to be the worst performing year in the four-year cycle. So, as we've stressed all year, gains in a flat, but volatile market are made in shorter windows, and unless the bears are crazy and the DOW is headed to 40,000, there are more stocks to sell out there than there are to buy.

S&P 500 Index Average Total Returns 1928-2002
1 Year Before Presidential Election
19.69%
Year of Presidential Election
13.52%
1 Year After Presidential Election
7.45%
2 Years After Presidential Election
8.65%
Overall Average
12.28%

For a quick review of some of the most troubled companies (Fading Blue Chips), read the article in the November ezine, "Celebrities, Style and Parties. While You Dream of the Good Life, Your Future could be Cat Food."

Gauging whether or not you are paying retail (i.e. overpaying) for your stock, is not merely a matter of Price to Earnings ratio. (Earnings are not always the most reliable way of understanding the health of a company.) At minimum, take a peak at the 5-year stock price chart, in addition to P/E. (It's a handy click tool on most large money sites. You can enter the company symbol in the RESEARCH NOW box on the NataliePace.com home page, to get to a fact sheet on the company, including price to earnings ratios, pricing charts, news, insider trading and more.) it's also not a bad idea to see what price the insiders set on their own company. Check out the insider trading to see it there is consensus insider buying (usually a good sign) or selling (can be a red flag).

Home Builders, Toll Brothers and KB Home
Additionally, although I don't ever rely solely on insider trading (or any other one piece of information) as the only indicator for the desirability of a stock, it is important to notice when company executives are speaking a different language with their wallet than they are to their shareholders. This year, $151 million in stock was sold by Robert Toll, and $110 million was sold by Bruce Toll. There was additional Consensus C-Level Selling at Toll Brothers. On November 8, 2005, in a press release touting that 4th quarter revenues rose 39%, a key warning was imbedded in the otherwise optimistic Toll Brothers outlook. Joel H. Rassman, chief financial officer, stated: "The 400 to 700 home reduction in our projected FY 2006 delivery guidance should reduce our earnings growth projections for Full Year 2006. As we evaluate this change, we will provide more guidance for FY 2006 when we announce earnings on December 8, 2005." Meanwhile, Robert Toll said, "We remain optimistic. The demographics for our industry remain outstanding due to continuing, regulation-induced, constraints on lot supplies and a growing number of affluent households."

I'd trust Mr. Toll's wallet more than his words, especially since we're seeing the same massive insider selling in another large homebuilder, KB Home. KB Home CEO Bruce Karatz has sold $146 million in stock over the last 10 months, and there has been consensus C-level insider selling at KB Home as well. If all of these executives were truly as excited about the future of real estate as they gush on at business conferences, it is unlikely that the selling would be so broad-based.

Below are a few comments from respected money managers and market commentators, regarding the seasonal Santa Rally. Don't be sucked into buying at top dollar on the expectation that the holidays will surprise you with a dream come true gift.

  1. "Don't get carried away and chase anything here. The traders who have profited from this rally will be looking for overly enthusiastic investors to sell their shares to in December. Keep both your eyes on the fundamentals of what you own -- and be prepared to sell if the price of anything gets too far out of line. This market is likely to swing too far to the long side in December after swinging too far to the short side in October." Jim Jubak, "Profit from short-sellers' problems"

  2. "I still find it hard to believe that all the people who've made the calendar/no-news bet are going to get paid this year -- though the weight of their sentiment may suffice to keep serious downside action at bay until next yearÉ This is only a near-term scenario, as I continue to be completely convinced that the next move of any consequence will be lower." Bill Fleckenstein, The Contrarian Chronicles.

  3. "The stock market seems to have embarked on its usual year-end rally. It remains to be seen, however, whether this rally will last until the New Year. The big concerns remain. The economy is slowing, and when winter heating bills show up in the mail, consumers will have even less to spend. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to stop raising interest rates in the face of inflation. So while higher rates will keep prices in check, those too will reduce the amount of money people and companies have to spend." "Giving Thanks for Even Minimal Returns" by the Associated Press.


  4. "Toll Brothers (TOL) was forced to take guidance down for next year. The company's stock declined about 14%, with every other homebuilder hit for 5%, plus or minus. It is worth noting that since last summer, insiders -- continuing to wax poetic about their business prospects -- sold more than 3 million Toll shares, at an average price of approximately $51." Bill Fleckenstein, The Contrarian Chronicles.

  5. "Collectively, we're heavily mortgaged in a period of extreme prices. The return to more normal prices could be as painful at the Great Texas Real Estate Crash." Scott Burns, MSN columnist

So, be festive this holiday season. But you may wish to box up your profits a little early, and begin the New Year fresh, fat (in the wallet) and happy.


Don't Feed the Bears During an Overvalued Market: Investment Outlook.

by Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter

"We would suggest that investors wait for historic values to become available and then to add [companies] to their portfolio." Kelley Wright

Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter

This market is starting to resemble the storyline in the movie Groundhog Day. This is to say we keep seeing the same thing over and over. The market rallies close to the old high set on (fill in the blank) date, rolls over and heads back toward 10,000.

The only thing more tedious than the market action itself is the myriad explanations by the punditry. The real answer to this market is to understand this question; "What does a bear market behave like?"

Yes Virginia, this is still a bear market and will be until the dividend yield on the Dow Industrials reaches its historic level of undervalue. Until that time, the market will rally and decline, much like it has the last five years.

The investment strategy for most investors is to try to pick the hot stock du jour or to time short-term market or sector direction through indices or ETFs. This is a tough way to make money.

Wait for a Better Price
We would suggest that investors wait for historic values to become available and then to add them to their portfolio. This generally takes courage, especially if the stock is out of favor with the general market trend. This is the lot of the value investor however; treading where others dare not.

As a general rule a stock is overvalued when it has a relatively high price and low dividend yield. It is undervalued when it has a relatively low price and a high dividend yield. It can be observed then, that dividend-paying stocks fluctuate over time within a range of low dividend yield - establishing a plateau of Overvalue - and high dividend yield, establishing a valley of Undervalue. The plateaus and valleys identify areas in which stocks should be sold or bought.

Each stock has its own profile of Undervalue and Overvalue, its own distinctive high and low yield characteristics, and must be studied individually. So, in addition to producing income, dividend yield can be used to identify value in the stock market.

You may wonder, "Why should the dividend bear a relationship to the price of a stock, and how does that relationship serve to measure value?" First of all, dividends meet the most basic of all investment fundamentals --- income. Even if income is not the primary objective of a particular investor, to MOST investors income is a very significant factor in stock market selections. Proof of this can be seen in what happens to the price of a stock when a dividend is raised or lowered. Even the suggestion of a dividend increase or decrease will send the price of a stock up or down.

In addition to income, there is an important significance to the dividend. Executives and directors of large corporations know far better than anyone else the financial condition of their company and the direction future earnings will take. It is reasonable to assume that directors are not going to raise a dividend unless that payout is fiscally justified and sound. A consistently rising dividend trend dramatically reveals a company's profitable progress; much more so than earnings.

Dividends, unlike earnings, are real money; not just figures on a balance sheet. Once a dividend is paid it is gone forever from that company. Therefore, a consistent trend of dividend payments, especially a rising dividend trend, is more reliable and less erratic than the trend of earnings. Earnings are subject to bookkeeping terms such as depreciation, cash flow, inventory adjustments, etc. A skillful financial officer can make earnings appear not-so good, and vice-versa, depending on tax considerations.

Dividends tell the truth. A rising dividend trend offers uncontestable proof that a company is, in fact, making profitable progress.

Our (Investment Quality Trends) approach to value through dividend yield is technical because it identifies historically repetitive price/yield areas in which, over the years, investors have been motivated to buy or sell their stock holdings. In that regard, it technically measures the sentiment and habit patterns of investors as they view each individual stock.

Stocks listed in the Undervalued category have completed a decline from Overvalued prices to Undervalued prices. These stocks offer historically good investment value. Any stock listed in the Undervalued category is generally recommended for purchase. A selection will depend on individual investment objectives and personal preferences.

Even if the timing of a purchase is not exactly right in relation to the general market trend, stocks, which are purchased at Undervalue, tend to hold their value and their price.

Our concept of identifying value can be applied to any stock with a fairly long dividend history. HOWEVER, there is no greater potential for capital appreciation in stock of poor quality. So we select for our service only stocks that are of prime, blue chip quality - with relatively little risk to the investor.

These are the stocks that command institutional support and sponsorship from powerful money forces. These are the mature, time-tested companies, with proven managements and established marketing techniques. These are the winners, the survivors. Lastly, these are the companies that seem to be more concerned about their stockholders and most reluctant ever to lower a dividend.

The scales on which our stocks are selected weigh profitable progress, growth of income and capital, professional management interest and marketability. For each stock, we take into account the past history of earnings, dividends, growth rates, financial strength, research and development and an appraisal of the future. As you can see, each stock is carefully selected, and our roster of Select Blue Chips is an elite representation of the most prosperous and progressive corporations in the country.

Reprinted from the IQTrends.com mid-November newsletter.

Investment Quality Trends (at IQTrends.com) is rated the #1 Top Performing Newsletter for five-year, ten-year and fifteen-year risk-adjusted returns by Hulbert's Financial Digest.  That's no small feat, considering the Wilshire 5000 has posted negative annualized returns of -1.4% for the past five years, while Investment Quality Trends has booked an impressive, annualized 15.90% gain. If you are interested in accessing Mr. Wright's newsletter and to post those kinds of gains yourself, go to www.IQTrends.com. 

 


Sharing Wisdom.

Career Angst: I am tempted to go after my series 6 license, but I am still walking down a dark road and have no idea where to go. Anyone got a map?

Dennis Christner Jr and his
girlfriend, Jennifer B
Founder and moderator,
National Young Millionaires Association

In our monthly Sharing Wisdom feature, NataliePace.com subscribers get answers to questions about money, career, business, investing (and really what doesn't have an element of money to it?). The collective experience, success and wisdom of the NataliePace.com circle can help you to follow the golden brick road to your dream life.

This month, a motivated young man writes: "I have watched my parents and how they live, comfortably yes. They have their needs, but not their wants. I have watched them struggle with bills, arguments etc all over money, and I do not want to go through that. I do not necessarily like working FOR other people, but I love working WITH other people. I am tempted to go after my series 6 license, but I am still walking down a dark road and have no idea where to go. Anyone got a map? Dennis, age 21

Now, I want to tell you a little bit about Dennis' talents. He runs the largest finance-related no spam/moderated group on Myspace.com. Dennis' group, National Young Millionaires Association, has more than 4000 members. He obviously knows something about marketing, and the success of his group says a lot about Dennis' initiative, intelligence, creativity, dedication and ability to work independently.

If you are interested in Sharing more Wisdom about obtaining a series 6 license and/or entering the financial services profession, please go to the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com. Click on the topic: "What Kind of Job Should I Look For?" If you are interested in contacting Dennis directly, go to his MySpace group, and you'll be able to send him a message. Dennis is the moderator, and his picture/link is located on the upper right side of the page.
  


Companies Sponsor the Series 6 license
by Linda Moore, Private Client Services

Linda Moore,
Private Client Services,

Marsh Risk
& Insurance Services
(213)346-5361

Dennis, obtaining one's Series 6 absolutely opens many doors in the financial services industry. Upon graduating from USC with a Business Administration degree, I wasn't quite sure where I would go, and what career path would ultimately allow me the greatest career opportunities for all the years ahead. Someone must have been watching over me, as my feet were put on the right path. I met a recruiter for a large insurance company, which ultimately sponsored me getting my Series 6 license. Financial security has been with me ever since. Given what you share, I would definitely pursue getting this license, and ultimately obtaining your Series 7. Much success in all your endeavors, and remember to give back as you grow in your financial wealth.

Linda Moore is responsible for business development in Southern California for Marsh's Private Client Services. Marsh PCS is the world leader in risk management and insurance services for high net worth individuals and families.

 


Career Path: Gaining Knowledge Through "Jobs"
by Marc A. Miles, Director Center For International Trade and Economics

Marc A. Miles, Ph.D.
Director
Center For International Trade and Economics
www.heritage.org

The first thing to do is differentiate between a job and a career.  You apparently have a goal of being a partner in a firm or having your own firm.  That is your career.  Getting there, however, will require learning the ins and outs of the industry you have chosen, and trying to anticipate how it will change.  That is where the jobs are important.  

At 21, you are still in the learning stage of your life.  Strive for jobs that will allow you to learn as much as possible. Your mileposts should be to have a good understanding by the time you are roughly 30, and being where you want by your early 40s.  

Don't be afraid to make mistakes.  We all have and do, and some of the great success stories came from early errors the entrepreneur made.  The fact that you do not know how to achieve your goal yet is normal; the fact that you are asking the right questions is encouraging.  Just keep asking as you go down your career path.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Education: The Investment of a Lifetime!
by Natalie Pace CEO and founder, NataliePace.com

Natalie Pace

Dennis, you'll notice that both of the respondents to your question, who are very respected professionals in the field of economics and finance, have degrees. Dr. Miles has his Ph.D. and Linda Moore has a degree in Business Administration. Your options for getting the best "jobs" to learn on (as you continue to advance toward your ultimate career goal) will increase dramatically if you have at least a degree from a university, in economics and/or business.

It's a lot easier to devote time to an education when you are 21 than it is when you are 31. Responsibilities tend to increase as you age. When I went to college, I lived in a huge house (with a pool and an elevator, believe it or not), with five other college students. Now that I am a mother, that is unthinkable. But it was a lot of fun at the time, and those friendships have proven extremely valuable to me today, as a business owner. (Some of my friends went on to found multi-million dollar corporations. It helps, when I have a serious business dilemma, to have an experienced sounding board.)

The relationships you'll have with your professors (who can provide job recommendations in the future), and the partnerships that you'll establish with your colleagues, provide for a solid support foundation for any future job and/or career that you choose. Without hesitation, I recommend that you get your 4-year degree from a university BEFORE you get your Series 7. Investing in your education is the most important investment of a lifetime. Education is the easiest, most reliable way for any person to jump income brackets.

There is a way RIGHT NOW for you to enroll in college. You might have to work part-time, live with your parents, take minimum units, apply for every scholarship and grant available, take out loans, etc. But there is a way. If I can do it, you can do it. (My dad was a copper miner, and didn't contribute one dime toward my education.) I challenge you to dive into your future right now.

 

Next month's Sharing Wisdom Question:
Bobbi asks: "A young man who is 22 years old works fulltime as an Assistant General Manager of a gym in the Los Angeles area. The company does not have a group health plan but they do give fulltime employees money toward health insurance.  Do you or anyone else know where he can get reasonably priced health insurance? He is in excellent health."

Experts, Please Share Your Wisdom with Bobbi:
If you or anyone you know has experience in getting and/or offering individual health insurance without paying through the nose or getting an excessively high deductible, please go to the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com. Post your responses in the topic, "Affordable Individual Health Insurance." Please limit your responses to 300 words or less. Submit your quotable wisdom now, before Friday, 12.9.05, so that we can include your advice in the January Sharing Wisdom article.

If you are interested in being quoted, be sure to include a short bio, your web site information and a phone number, so that we can contact you. Thanks in advance for helping NataliePace.com to continue to "spread wealth by sharing wisdom."

Got a Question for our Experts?
Email info@NataliePace.com with your burning money questions-- be they business, investing or personal -- and we will continue the dialog by having our very knowledgeable subscribers answer your most pressing needs. Also, feel free to visit our Sharing Wisdom bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com and post your question there in a new topic.


Choosing the Career of Your Dreams.

by Lorraine Spurge, Managing Director, Post Advisory Group, LLC

An Excerpt From Money Clips: 365 Tips That Will Pay One Day at a Time.

Lorraine Spurge,
managing director
Post Advisory Group, LLC

Do you want a job or a career?
If you need to clock in from 9 to 5, if your mantra is TGIF, if you give just enough of yourself to get by while expecting to get the most - then you're looking for a job. A career is a life-long experience. It's giving as well as getting. Having a career is about getting excited about going too work in the morning and not looking at your watch to check if your day is over. It's about wanting to share your day's events with friends and family long after your workday is done. Simply put, you should love what you do for a living.

Loving what you do not only improves the quality of your life and enhances your own well-being, but also the lives of those around you. It's an extremely rewarding process. Many people base their career ambitions on what they think is monetarily rewarding and overlook the obvious: what will drive them to get up and go to work, excited, every day.

Start by appraising yourself
A career choice should be made with careful consideration. So before selecting a potential career, ask yourself some critical questions:

    • What skills do I have? Does my desired career choice require any of these skills?
    • What am I really, uniquely good at? What makes me stand out from the next job candidate?
    • What job activity makes me happiest?
    • What job activity makes me both happy and proud - because I do an outstanding job?
    • What gets me turned on about a job? Does my current job exhaust or energize me?
    • How can I transfer my hobbies, interests or unrelated skills into a career?
    • Without thinking about money, what would I most like to spend my time doing?
    • What contribution do I want to make to my community?

A good attitude will take you anywhere
Your attitude is so important - not just for getting a good job, but for your mental health and overall well-being. Face it, the workplace is full of stresses. Learn to view them as obstacles to be hurdled, not walls you've come up against. When frustrated, try this imagery technique: just close your eyes and say to yourself, "I'm going to switch to a different attitude about this thing (or person) that's bothering me," and view yourself successfully managing the situation. Sometimes that's all it takes to begin to relieve some of the pressure and stress. Try it and see how your attitude changes.

Personal Perspective
I enjoyed working so much I would get to the office two hours early. And if I was sick and we needed to get a project done, I was there anyway. I can remember once coming in with a 102-degree fever because we had a big presentation to make. My boss ran around getting me tea, bringing me a heater to warm me up - he couldn't thank me enough - the best thanks came at Christmas when I got a big bonus and raise. But it's funny, looking back now, I wasn't event thinking about the money. I just wanted to do the best job I could possibly do.

I take that work ethic with me in everything I do. Today I am CEO of my own business. But if we're up against a deadline you won't find me sitting behind an executive desk. I'm there, assembling marketing packages, photocopying and collating - whatever it takes to get the job done.

Go on a fact-finding adventure
Research skills will not only help you manage your career, the skills you'll develop will help you manage your money, and ultimately, your life. Find out about careers and opportunities and how they might suit your skills and background. Even if you're unemployed and looking for a job, or still in school, it will give you a chance to call prospective employers and interview them for your own research purposes, while you don't have the anxiety about getting a particular job. Remember, you're on an adventure.

When you're looking for a long-term career, this strategy will open doors or paths that you never dreamed of, and may not even have considered.

Network your way to success
Every meeting, phone call or acquaintance has the potential to bring you closer to your dream career. This is a building process - a foundation of information that you will inventory for current and future use. It will help you build a database of contacts that can become your network to success.

Conduct information interviews
They could be with people you think you'd like to work for or with people who are doing what you'd like to be doing. This gives you a tremendous opportunity to talk with other professionals at a particular company or in a specific industry. Don't even bother with Human Resources departments. Go straight to the person who has the job that interests you. People love to talk about themselves - and you can often find out more about the company and industry than you could ever learn through its promotional materials.

Questions to ask when networking:

    • Why did you pick this job in this particular industry?
    • What do you like most about your line of work?
    • What do you dislike most about it?
    • What is your vision for the future of this industry?
    • Besides your company, who are your competitors?
    • Whom would you recommend I speak with for additional information?

Don't forget to follow up, follow up, follow up. One of the mistakes many people make is neglecting to follow up with a phone call, card or letter. Many people give up after one attempt at contact. Don't. Be persistent. Always follow up a telephone or face-to-face interview with a thank-you note, and make a note on your calendar to call or meet again.

Try to get a sense of the buzzwords used in the industry you are seeking. This will give you a bit of an inside look at what's going on.

If your research reveals that a company you're interested in is weak financially, it doesn't mean the company might not appreciate and reward talented people like yourself. Young and growing companies might offer the greatest future rewards, even though they might not be able to offer huge starting salaries. And remember, not all rewards are monetary.

Lorraine Spurge (Managing Director - Portfolio Management) joined Post with over 20 years of finance and business experience.  Prior to Post she founded a financial consulting company, which later evolved into Spurge Ink!, a publisher of books and designer of marketing programs for leading consultants and business executives. Lorraine began her career in finance at Drexel Burnham Lambert, where she managed the capital markets group.  During that period of time, she was responsible for structuring, negotiating, and marketing various transactions, including private placements and public new issues of high yield bonds, common stock, and equity-related derivatives.  Lorraine was also responsible for helping distressed companies through complex exchange offers, covenant waivers, and financial restructuring.


The Million-Dollar Smile and 11 Other Qualities of the Rich and Successful.

by Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com & trade;

Oprah and California First Lady Maria Shriver At the 2004 California Governor and First Lady's Conference for Women and Famlies

"Don't ask yourself what the world needs; ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go and do that. Because what the world needs are people who have come alive."

--Harold Whitman

Every profession has its secrets, and any veteran who makes it into the elite ranks has those secrets imbedded into her bag of tricks by the time her peers acknowledge her. The world-boxing champion may naturally have a mean jab, but along the way, he learned how to dance, how to survive ten rounds of pummeling, and to protect his face and body from deadly punches. The concert pianist may have skill and technique, but before she can fill the Hollywood Bowl, she must infuse soul into the notes and play off of and with the musicians in the orchestra. Business is no different. There are tried and true secrets that you can learn by trial and error, or you can learn from rising through the ranks or you can post on your bedroom mirror as the Bible of Business and incorporate/implant into your brain day and night. Either way, it is unlikely that you will be successful until you have mastered the following 12 success secrets of CEOs.

1. The Million-Dollar Smile:
This is all about how you conduct yourself and present yourself, and if you think that is only important during meetings or that you can fake it, you're mistaken. Think of it as the Obi-Wan Kenobi factor. If you want to open doors, receive special treatment, attract positive attention and succeed, you need to carry, not only an aura of success, but also a persona of fairness and joie de vivre at all times. If you cut off your client in the parking lot, it's going to be hard to sell that million-dollar smile at lunch. If you're rude to your colleague's assistant, you might find your messages getting bungled up. If you're desperate to win a sale, nobody is going to want to work with you because your focus is on the sale, rather than the success of the partnership.

Now, here's the hardest part about that smile: it can't be fake. It's impossible to pretend to smile all day long and have it pass for the genuine thing. It's impossible to be pleasant all day long if you're all keyed up and pissed off. And you'll have a hard time relaxing into the natural rhythm of negotiations and agreements if you are desperate to win the business because you need the cash to keep the lights on.

So, how do you find a way to smile naturally? Simple really. Entrepreneurs have to love what they do. Your hours are long, the challenges are many, the risks are lethal, and the only way to smile through it all is if the work is something that lights your soul on fire. That's the core: love what you do. The million-dollar smile flows naturally from people who are passionate about their business. From that important foundation, there will still be stress, setbacks and serious challenges, which can be relieved , through exercise, yoga, meditation, massage - whatever it takes.

2. Fresh air: fresh ideas.
I have a very successful writer friend, who has had four New York Times bestsellers, who hardly ever sits down to write. Instead he goes about his life with a pen and paper in his pocket, ready at all times to observe what he sees in the natural world. This writer assured me that writer's block is simply sitting too long in front of a computer expecting to be inspired, and sure enough, since I adopted his advice, longer ago than I'm willing to admit, I've never suffered from a block on ideas or inspiration.

Nothing grows if you strangle it. A watched pot doesn't boil. Sometimes the solution looks out of focus if you are too close or stare too long.

Make sure that you are out in the real world observing. Whether you have a product or a service, understanding the whims, tastes and trends of society in general and your target market in particular will help you succeed far more than trying to design something in your cubicle. Millions of marketing dollars are thrown at bad ideas, while great ideas spread rapidly through word of mouth. Myspace.com is a great example of that.

The founder of Snak King has never spent a dime on advertising, and yet his cashews, nuts, trail mix and candy sell millions all over the U.S. He thought of his million-dollar idea while in a golf cart, after spilling ketchup on his shorts. "Why can't we have snacks that are easy to eat?" he asked. And voila, Snak King was born. Get out of the office and live a little.

3. "Never Underestimate the Power of a Free T-Shirt." Philip Knight, founder, Nike.
Andrew P. Mooney, the chairman of the Walt Disney Company's consumer products division, gave Mickey Mouse t-shirts to Jennifer Garner and Sarah Jessica Parker in 2001. Retail sales doubled annually after that, and Dolce & Gabbana subsequently designed a $1,400 sequined Minnie Mouse T-shirt.

Wendy Robbins, the founder of the popular head massage widget, the Tingler, has been known to sit in the first row of Bill Clinton book signings with the Tingler on her head to attract attention to her product.

If Angelina wears it once and that photo makes it to the fanzines, sales go through the roof. It's not easy getting your product to celebrities, but if it is whimsical, unique and makes them feel or look better, you might have a shot. If you give them money for the endorsement, you might have a partnership.

If anyone famous loves you and/or your product, get it in writing (testimonial), and, if possible, on film or in a digital photo. You can use this as your calling card to establish your niche and reputation, for future sales and perhaps as publicity both for your product and your new celebrity friend.

4. Stop Chasing Venture Capital.
Most entrepreneurs fund their own dreams, so make sure that your plan includes getting to cash flow positive as quickly as possible. Secure loans and lines of credit BEFORE you need them, as you'll likely be ineligible or pay a higher interest rate if you wait until you're desperate. Don't waste precious time chasing money that is unlikely to materialize.

The Women's Executive Network secured two million in corporate sponsorships, but had to close up shop when the follow-on venture capital never came in. Co-founder Beth Fehmel now believes that her team wasted too much time chasing venture capital, leaving too little time to develop and market the product and establish an audience and customer base.

Where New Businesses Get Their Startup Capital
(source: Inc. Magazine 10/03)

2%

Formal venture capital

2%

SBA loan or funds from other government program

4%

Financing from supplier, customer or other business entity

4%

Private equity investment

8%

Commercial bank loan or line of credit

10%

Assets of family or friends

17%

Other founders' personal assets

53%

Personal funds


5. Plan B is Often Better
The famous (and popular) scene when Harrison Ford shoots an attacking swordsmen in the first Indiana Jones movie was, reportedly, a solution to getting something on tape when Harrison was sick as a dog and couldn't do another ten-minute, choreographed fight sequence. It became the most talked about moment of the film. Don't be too focused on failure. If something isn't working out, be creative at finding something that works even better.


6. Don't Dilute the Gene Pool
The best barrier to entry is greatness, and you will find that colleagues in your field will refer your services if they are high quality, specialized and priced right. My content has appeared on Forbes.com, in Kiplinger's, on Women and Co's website and on Fox News. Experienced money managers with exceptional track records, like Kelley Wright of IQTrends.com, contribute to NataliePace.com's pages because we hold the same standards of excellence as those we seek to partner with. The content is held to an exceptionally high caliber, so others can be proud of being associated with us. An advisor of NataliePace.com sums this up, saying, "Don't dilute the professional gene pool."

7.
Think Partner, Not Competitor
No one succeeds on his/her own. If your business is web design, and your designs specialize in small business, you might find another established web designer, who specializes in mid-size businesses, to refer small business leads to you. This is more bound to happen if you contact your competitor to refer your mid or large size business leads to him/her. The malls were designed to bring customers to one place, where there are many options to buy essentially the same thing. It's easier to get more customers to come to the mall, than it is to attract customers to various stores scattered across the city. You want someone to refer customers to who don't fit your niche, and you want others to recognize your expertise and send customers your way. You might also consider creating an affiliate/referral reward program.

8.
Bring in Big Partners.
Think, "What's in it for them?" Big partners, and/or advisors with outstanding reputations and/or followings, can help your business succeed. Perhaps one of the biggest values a board member or an advisor brings to a business, outside of experience and expertise, is her rolodex. You will only attract such individuals if you can offer them something for their time and expertise. That enticement might be a social need, networking, resume building, like-minded vision, etc. It is rarely just a matter of money. Non-profit organizations are able to attract major CEOs to their cause. Lloyd Braun, the head of Head of Yahoo! Media Group, is also the Vice Chairman of the Lauri Strauss Leukemia Foundation.

9.
Never Give Up.
"More than anything else, you have to love what you do, and you can NEVER give up," according to Donald Trump. " If there's a concrete wall, you have to go through it."

Henry Ford says, "If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right."

Your mindset is everything. When you worry that you can't do something, you waste time. When you are committed to doing something, you find a way. Winners find a way, and work hard to achieve.

As Carly Fiorina, the former Chairman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard notes, "There are people who focus on the limitations of the situation, and there are people who focus on the possibilities. The people who focus on the possibilities always achieve more. See what's possible!!"

10. Brand Recognition: Whimsical and Memorable
Perhaps the best example of this is Google, which is a play on "Googol," the mathematical term for a 1 followed by 100 zeros. Skype has become one of the most popular names in Voice Over Internet Telephony (VOIP). The more whimsical your brand name, the easier it is to protect and trademark, and the easier it is for customers to start feeling more passionately connected to your product. Think iPod.

11.
Learn to Live with the Snakes in Your stomach
"Marc [Andreessen] always says that you only experience two emotions when starting a company: euphoria and terror. And lack of sleep enhances them both. If you don't feel your guts boiling then you're not aiming high enough ;-) ." Ben Horowitz, President and CEO, Opsware.

All entrepreneurs have challenges. You are not being picked on. So, stop whining and get back to doing 1-10, or stop whining and realize that you're better suited too work for someone else than you are to owning your own business. That's the difference between an owner and an employee. The owner dreams of the business at night, and achieves superhuman feats by day. Employees can leave the pile of things to do at the office when they clock out, for it is the owners' responsibility to keep the lights on, keep the customers happy and pay the staff.

12. You need to have "IITT."
Intelligence, Integrity, Initiative, Talent and Tenacity. You need it. And you need to be surrounded by it.

Competitions are used by corporations to challenge a higher level of achievement from their divisions and teams. However, competition without ethics is war. Enron was a corporation based upon an intensely competitive ethos, and the war that ensued destroyed the company. Warmongers destroy. Peacemakers create.

When your team wins, you win. There are very few ventures that are small enough to launch on your own. So, as Anne Sweeney, the Co-Chairman, Disney Media Networks and President, Disney ABC Television Group says, "Invest in the success of those around you."

"Commerce is inhibited if we cannot trust the reliability of counterparties' information and commitments. Indeed, the willingness to rely on the word of a stranger is integral to any sophisticated economy." Chairman Alan Greenspan, 5.20.2004

You will need to ally with people who are trustworthy, reliable, talented and full of initiative and intelligence. Avoid the opposite, and save yourself a lot of grief, distraction and lawsuits.


Bonds: Not as Thrilling as 007, But More Faithful.

by Steve Selengut.

Sound Retirement Planning Means Understanding Fixed Income Investing and Expectations

"Over the past few years of falling interest rates, Fixed Income securities have risen in price and investors (should) have realized capital gains as a resultÉ Now, that trend has reversed itself and you have the opportunity to add to existing holdings, or to buy new securities, at lower prices and higher interest rates." Steve Selengut

Market Terms:
Fixed Income Security: An investment that provides a return in the form of fixed periodic payments and eventual return of principle at maturity, like bonds and preferred stock.

An example of a fixed-income security would be a 5% fixed-rate government bond where a $1,000 investment would result in an annual $50 payment until maturity when the investor would receive the $1,000 back. Generally, these types of assets offer a lower return on investment because they guarantee income. (source: Investopedia.com)

Fixed Income:
I've come to the conclusion that the Stock Market is an easier medium for investors to understand (i.e., to form behavioral expectations about) than the Fixed Income Market. As unlikely as this sounds, experience proves it, irrefutably. Few investors grow to love volatility as I do, but most expect it in the Market Value of their equity positions. When dealing with Fixed Income Securities however, neither they nor their advisors are comfortable with any downward movement at all. Most won't consider taking profits when prices increase, but will rush in to accept losses when prices fall.

Theoretically, Fixed Income Securities should be the ultimate Buy and Hold; their primary purpose is income generation, and return of principal is typically a contractual obligation. I like to add some seasoning to this bland diet, through profit taking whenever possible, but losses are almost never an acceptable, or necessary, menu item. Still, Wall Street pumps out products and Investment Experts rationalize strategies that cloud the simple rules governing the behavior of what should be an investor's retirement blankie. I shake my head in disbelief, constantly. The investment gods have spoken: "The market price of Fixed Income Securities shall vary inversely with Interest Rates, both actual and anticipatedÉ and it is good."  
 
"It's OK, it's natural, it just doesn't matter," I say to disbelieving audiences everywhere. You have to understand how these securities react to interest rate expectations and take advantage of it. There's no need to hedge against it, or to cry about it. It's simply the nature of things.
 
There are several reasons why investors have invalid expectations about their Fixed Income investments: (1) They don't experience this type of investing until retirement planning time and they view all securities with an eye on Market Value, as they have been programmed to do by Wall Street. (2) The combination of increasing age and inexperience creates an inordinate fear of loss that is prayed upon by commissioned sales persons of all shapes and sizes. (3) They have trouble distinguishing between the income generating purpose of Fixed Income Securities and the fact that they are negotiable instruments with a Market Value that is a function of current, as opposed to contractual, interest rates. (4) They have been brainwashed into believing that the Market Value of their portfolio, and not the income that it generates, is their primary weapon against inflation. [Really, Alice, if you held these securities in a safe deposit box instead of a brokerage account, and just received the income, the perception of loss, the fear, and the rush to make a change would simply disappear. Think about it.]
 
Every properly constructed portfolio will contain securities whose primary purpose is to generate income (fixed and/or variable), and every investor must understand some basic and "absolute" characteristics of Interest Rate Sensitive Securities. These securities include Corporate, Government, and Municipal Bonds, Preferred Stocks, many Closed End Funds, Unit Trusts, REITs, Royalty Trusts, Treasury Securities, etc. Most are legally binding contracts between the owner of the securities (you, or an Investment Company that you own a piece of) and an entity that promises to pay a Fixed Rate of Interest for the use of the money. They are primary debts of the issuer, and must be paid before all other obligations. They are negotiable, meaning that they can be bought and sold, at a price that varies with current interest rates. The longer the duration of the obligation, the more price fluctuation cycles will occur during the holding period. Typically, longer obligations also have higher interest rates. Two things are accomplished by buying shorter duration securities: you earn less interest and you pay your broker a commission more frequently.
 
Defaults in interest payments are extremely rare, particularly in Investment Grade Securities, and it is very likely that you will receive a predictable, constant, and gradually increasing flow of Income. (The income will increase gradually only if you manage your asset allocation properly by adding proportionately to your Fixed Income holdings.) So, if everything is going according to plan, all that you ever need to look at is the amount of income that your Fixed Income portfolio is generatingÉ period. Dealing with variable income securities is slightly different, as Market Value will also vary with the nature of the income, and the economics of a particular industry. REITs, Royalty Trusts, Unit Trusts, and even CEFs (Closed End Funds) may have variable income levels and portfolio management requires an understanding of the risks involved. A Municipal Bond CEF, for example will have a much more dependable cash flow and considerably more price stability than an oil and gas Royalty Trust. Thus, diversification in the income-generating portion of the portfolio is even more important than in the growth portionÉ income pays the bills. Never lose sight of that fact and you will be able to go fishing more frequently in retirement.
 
The critical relationship between the two classes of securities in your portfolio, is this: The Market Value of your Equity Investments and that of your Fixed Income investments are totally, and completely unrelated. Each Market dances to it's own beat. Stocks are like heavy metal or RapÉimpossible to predict. Bonds are more like the classics and old time rock-and-rollÉmuch more predictable. Thus, for the sake of portfolio smile maintenance, you must develop the ability to separate the two classes of securities, mentally, if not physically. For example, if your July 2005 Market Value fell, it was because of higher interest rates not lower stock prices. More recently, the combination of higher rates and a weaker Stock Market has been a Double Whammy for portfolio Market Values, and a double bonanza for investment opportunities. Just like at the Mall, lower securities prices are a good thing for buyersÉ and higher prices are a good thing for sellers. You need to act on these things with each cyclical change.
 
Here's a simple way to deal with Fixed Income Market Values to avoid shocks and surprises. Just visualize the Scales of Justice, with or without the blindfold. On one side we have a number that represents the Current Market Value of your Fixed Income portfolio. On the other side, we have a small "i" for interest rates, and "up" or "down" arrows that represent interest rate directional expectations. If the world expects interest rates to rise, or even to stop going down, "up" arrows are added to "i" and the Market Value side moves lowerÉ the current scenario. Absolutely nothing can (or should) be done about it. It has no impact at all on the contracts you hold or the interest that you will receive; neither the maturity value nor the cash flow is affectedÉ but your broker just called with an idea.
 
The mechanics are also simple. These are negotiable securities that carry a fixed interest rate. Buyers are entitled to current rates, and the only way to provide them on an existing security is to sell it at a discount. Fortunately, one rarely has to sell. Over the past few years of falling interest rates, Fixed Income securities have risen in price and investors (should) have realized capital gains as a resultÉadding to portfolio income and Working Capital. Now, that trend has reversed itself and you have the opportunity to add to existing holdings, or to buy new securities, at lower prices and higher interest rates. This cycle will be repeated forever.
 
So, from a "let's try to be happy with our investment portfolio because it's financially healthier" standpoint, it is critical that you understand changes in Market Value, anticipate them, and appreciate the opportunities that they provide. Comparing your portfolio Market Value with some external and unrelated number accomplishes nothing. Actually, owning your fixed income securities in the most freely negotiable manner possible can put you in a unique position. You have no increased risk from a reduction in security prices, while you gain the ability to add to holdings at higher yields. It's like magic, or is it justice. Both sides of the scales contain good news for the investorÉ as the investment gods intended.
 
 
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read, and A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy.


Hillary Gala Honors Women Leaders.

The Women's Foundation of California Has Awarded Over $17 Million to Innovative Community-based Nonprofit Organizations

Senator Hillary Clinton
Photo Credit: Women's Foundation of California

On Friday October 14, the Women's Foundation of California hosted a Gala celebration at the Beverly Hills Hotel, to honor women leaders and community-based organizations that have championed the human rights of women and girls. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton gave the keynote address, speaking to an audience of 550 guests from the Los Angeles political, business, entertainment and non-profit sectors. Proceeds from the benefit went to the Women's Foundation, a grant-maker, which has awarded over $17 million to innovative community-based organizations that work to: promote pay equity and economic security, advance legislative and policy efforts that benefit women, girls and their families, ensure women's and girls' leadership, advocate for reproductive health and rights, promote environmental health and eliminate violence against women and girls.

"We can be bystanders and watch the ground being seeded and the clock turned back, or we can hold our ground and seek common ground to try to build a better future for girls and boys, for women and men, " said Senator Clinton. " It is our birthright, it's what others have done for us, and it's what the Women's Foundation of California is doing. And all of us who support its work are in the progression of leaders and citizen-activists who know that America can only do better if we make a commitment to bring that new future into being."

Emmy award-winning actress Camryn Manheim served as the mistress of ceremonies; and Mary Steenburgen and Ted Danson, were the gala's honorary hosts.

Four women leaders, including Senator Clinton and 11 organizations that are blazing trails for women and girls in communities throughout California were included among the honorees of the evening.

The 2005 GroundBreakers/DreamMakers were:

  1. Senator Clinton
  2. Lateefah Simon, McArthur Fellow and former executive director of the Center for Young Women's Development in San Francisco
  3. Kay Buck, Executive Director of the Coalition to Abolish Slavery and Trafficking in Los Angeles, and
  4. Teresa DeAnda, staff for Californians for Pesticide Reform in the San Joaquin Valley.

The community-based organizations honored for their work include:

  1. Homegirl Café, a restaurant and catering company that employs and trains young women who are transitioning out of gang life
  2. The Youth Justice Coalition, which educates girls in the juvenile justice system about their legal rights and trains them to be their own advocates
  3. The Center for Young Women's Development, which helps young women, ages 16-24, become voices of change in their lives and communities through personal development and civic engagement
  4. Californians for Pesticide Reform, which works to change policy related to pesticide use and pollution, and
  5. The Center on Race, Poverty and the Environment, works with community leaders to ensure their access to clean, safe and affordable drinking water.

In addition to being a grant-maker, the Women's Foundation of California runs it's own programs including a Women's Policy Institute, serves as a trusted convener and provides grant partners with technical assistance in a variety of areas to build their organizational capacity. For more information on how you can help the Women's Foundation of California continue improving our world, go to www.womensfoundca.org.

 


What Poker Champs and Champion Investors Have In Common: Neither Gamble.

by Natalie Pace, Top Stock Picker, per TipsTraders.com

Annie Duke didn't win the 2004 World Series of Poker because she's a great gambler. She won because she knows her profession and doesn't gamble at all. In fact, her book, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed and Won Millions, isn't a book about gambling. It's a course book - an educational prerequisite for ANYONE who cares to sit at a poker table with bets larger than single digits - that carefully charts a number of mathematical calculations that you can use to win at the poker table.

This is America, however, and no one is going to deny you your right to dump yourself bold and naïve at a poker table any more than anyone is going to deny you your right to gamble on the stock market. Trouble is: professionals don't gamble, and if you are, guess who is more likely to lose. Unfortunately, what most Americans don't realize is that they probably have a seat at the stock table, whether they know it or not. Odds are your company retirement plan and/or your personal 401 (k) or IRA have holdings in mutual funds or publicly traded companies. So, it's not a game you can easily walk away from. In fact, there's almost no alternative to educating yourself, if you want to start winning, instead of losing money.

Since 2000, the average investor has lost money in the stock holdings in his/her retirement account. If you were a Global Crossing, Enron, World Com, US Airways, United Airlines or Delta Airlines investor or employee, you have lost most, if not all, of your investment (though a portion of retirement benefits are guaranteed by the Federal Pension Guaranty Corporation).

Buy Annie Duke's book if you want to win at poker. Buy Peter Lynch's books if you want to learn investment tricks of a pro. Here's the interesting thing. They're both talking the same game.

  1. Bet On What You Know. Annie Duke is a meticulous observer who counts eye blinks before the game begins, so that she can assess when someone is lying. She knows the probability of any set of cards winning, and that "you should only play 25% of the hands you're dealt." Peter Lynch says, "If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock." It's better to invest in companies that you know and understand (and as a consumer, you know what products you like and don't like and why) than to blindly chase every "hot" company that gets reported on.
  2. As an example, if you know and love Google, and invested in the IPO last May, your investment is up over 370% ((You've made $3.70 for every dollar.) Baidu, a Chinese search engine, was a hot IPO a few months back, and more than doubled in under a week, only to drop back down to just 18% above the initial price. If you bought at the high, $154, your losses are 54% (over 50 cents on every dollar). How many Americans have a clue about Baidu? The site is completely in Chinese!! Now, if you did know the site and the company, you'd know whether it's a great site, or the IPO was just the result of good hype! And if you did that amount of research, then chances are you also know what a reasonable price for the company is as well.

  3. Play the Odds. "A-2 offers nineteen combinations for making the best low" in Omaha Hi-Lo, according to Annie Duke, who cautions to avoid trap hands, like A-5, which can be beaten by a number of low combos. How do you play the winners on Wall Street? Avoid companies that owe over a billion to their pension plans. Two companies with severely underfunded pension plans have entered bankruptcy recently, namely Delphi and Delta Airlines. Exxon Mobil, General Motors and Ford each owe billions to their pension plans, $11.5 billion, $7.5 billion and $12.3 billion respectively, according to Standard and Poor's. Check your mutual funds to be sure that you are not over-exposed to these and other Blue Chip companies that are suffering from "legacy" costs. (You'll see this term in a lot of news articles these days.) For a list of the top 40 companies with a billion or more owed to their pension plan, read the article "Celebrities, Style and Parties" from archived issue 2, volume 10.

  4. Don't Chase Bad Hands. "Cards that look good to you because you've been card dead aren't right for playing," according to Annie. The odds of winning in poker and in life are quantifiable, and increase if you are willing to play hands with a high probability of winning and pass over hands that have a high probability of losing. Real Estate Investors, especially novices, should take great heed today.
  5. If you've been looking all year for a good real estate investment or even to buy your own home, and all you can afford is the run-down shack in the ghetto, don't bet on that shack getting sold higher in a few years to someone more foolish than you are. Houses with security bars on the window in Inglewood, California are going for half a million dollars today. Modest homes (hardly more than shacks) in Venice, California are selling for over a million. When the price of anything becomes higher than the customer base can afford, buyers dry up and excess stock begins accumulating. Stocks in 2000 weren't immune. Real Estate in 2005 may continue to rise in value, albeit more measured than in the past few years, but rest assured that prices cannot rise at such a pace forever.

  6. Predict the Future by Doing Your Research. Annie recommends paying attention to how fast or slow people play their hands. "It can help you predict what they're holding in future hands," according to Annie. So, who do you watch on Wall Street? Turns out certain trends are extremely predictable. For instance, during the Santa Rally of 2002, NataliePace.com reported that 2003, the year before a presidential election, was a year that had statistically significant odds of posting positive gains. ((2000-2002 were all losing years, and, after a very dismal October 2002 on Wall Street, many investors were starting to think that the Apocalypse had arrived.) btw: Santa Rally is another fairly reliable trend. Over half of the gains in the stock market occur in the 4th quarter. Does that mean that you will win every hand if you learn how to read the future based on historical trends? No. Does it increase your chance of success? Yes. Additionally, if you get into a bind where you are invested, but feel blind (as the Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler, did when she made her first trade), you can commit to obtaining the facts that will help you to make a more informed decision, rather than taking a shot in the dark (which has a big chance of missing the target).

  7. Never play a bad hand. In Omaha Hi-Lo, a bad hand is 2-2-7-Q. "The hand literally has no potential," according to Annie. What "bad hands" are there in investing? Swamp land in Florida. Free money to help a diplomat/royal from Nigeria. Penny stocks that get pumped through spam email campaigns. Assume that any get rich quick scheme that comes from someone you don't know is swampland in Florida until proven otherwise. With regard to real estate, remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

  8. Don't Play With Cheaters. As Annie notes, "Generally the people who play dishonestly are the ones who have leaksÉ If you're trying to take edges like that, you likely have the kind of personality that is going to have other problems - a drug addiction, for example." There are signs that a company and CEO are bending (if not breaking) the rules. If the company is "based" out of the Bahamas, but has no real offices there. If the CEO is seen more often in the society pages than in the Board Room. If the product prices are dropping faster than the Titanic, but the balance sheet reflects a steady climb in sales. Click here for the Top 10 Signs the CEO is rolling in your dough, and avoid investing in companies with products you don't like (think Altria, which is the Philip Morris tobacco company) or CEOs whom you don't trust.

As in poker, there are many more things to learn about investing that will help you up your chances of winning. Before you sit at the poker table, you might start by reading Annie Duke's excellent book. She very generously reveals the strategies she used to become the 2004 Tournament of Champions winner. Before you start putting your money in the stock market, and remember chances are you already have some money invested, you would be smart to continue learning from professionals who have a record of posting consistent gains over time. (This is very different from just listening to the broker behind the counter or reading the Spam or direct mail that you receive from "experts" who are touting HUGE GAINS.) It's a thrill to win money at either seat - poker or Wall Street - and it is assured that you will get that joy more often if you know what you are doing. No one can play your cards better than you can, provided you learn the rules and fundamentals of the game.


Great Gifts for Friends and Lovers,

Including NataliePace.com's Pick for the Best Couple's Get Away: The Parker Palm Springs

The Parker Palm Springs

What's the perfect gift for your guy? For women? Well, according to an NataliePace.com survey, it isn't crock pots and garden tools. (Go to www.NataliePace.com to cast your vote, so that men and women across the U.S. can get their gift-giving right this year, and no one is stuck with a rooster cookie jar or a Mickie Mouse tie.)

Best Gift for Guys

Best Gift for Women

40% iPod Nano or other music device

38% Couple's Get Away Vacation

26% Plasma TV

23% Spa gift certificate (massage, facial)

20% Satellite Radio

15% Clothes

6% Camera, PDA, camcorder

7% Jewelry

 

7% Appliances and House Furnishings (from couches to cuisinarts)

Source: NataliePace.com™

Now, since you know where to get your favorite electronics device and are smart enough to ask your loved one the exact brand that he desires (you don't want to give XM Satellite Radio to a Howard Stern/Sirius Satellite Radio lover), we'll focus our tips on the #1 best gift for women - a couple's get away.

NataliePace.com's Best Get Away (with spa facilities): The Parker Palm Springs
Some people just get it right, and the management team responsible for the Parker experience is quite simply the Muhammed Ali of hotels. They work exceptionally hard and smart behind the scenes to make mastery look beautiful. So, trust that your every need is not only provided for; it has been anticipated, and is ready at your beck and call.

Now for the unique allure of the Parker PS. It is retro risqué, uptown, not uptight, architecturally whimsical, a taste delight and you are treated like a guest of the estate, i.e. spoiled, flirted with and fawned over. Whether you have two days or a week, trust that time will slow down, that you can renew/revive your soul, challenge yourself or refuse to do anything at all and even risk a spiked lemonade and game of Petanque before noon. (Where else can you play Petanque?) If you want a getaway with kids, the Gene Autry house, which is in the center of the Parker PS estate, is perfect, with the 2nd bedroom located far enough away on the other side that your kids can make all the noise they want (and so can you) without being a bother.

Everything at the Parker PS is designed to invite you to "live a little" beyond your comfort zone. In the yoga class, I thought the instructor might be kidding with the positions he was challenging his beginning students to assume. (My head stand ended up in a back bend, and trust me, everyone in the class took at least one tumble.) What was most refreshing was that I was in a class that was actually challenging me, rather than holding back, worried that I might sue if I pushed myself beyond my capabilities. I thought at first it might just be a renegade instructor, but soon learned that pushing you a little beyond your blasé day-to-day existence is part of the Parker Palm Springs ethos.

Excerpts from the Parker PS Manifesto:
We believe in the American country club experience: mixed doubles, a long steam and a stiff cocktail.

We believe the last thing a woman wants to see while having a treatment is a man; so we maintain a separation of the sexes.

We believe newlyweds are too naïve to recognize this, and the elderly too old to recognize each other, so we have couples treatment rooms.

We believe in inner beauty. But, do what you can on the outside.

We believe in good sport as well as fitness: Petanque and Pastis, Pimms Cup and Croquet, Snooker and single malt whiskey.

We believe you are only young onceÉbut you can be immature forever.

The tennis court is clay. The pastimes include Petanque and Croquet. At breakfast you can have foie gras. The lemonade stands leave you feeling a little extra happy (Pastis or champagne spiked lemonades are refreshing and delicious, with a kick, adding a little pizzazz to your tennis or golf game.). Dinner is served in a risqué Ô70s setting that looks straight out of a Saturday Night Live spoof of the Playboy mansion. As Lynne Puttman-Dibley, Parker Palm Springs' human resources director puts it, "Mrs. Parker has the culture of a queen, but she can also drink with the sailors."

When I mention the drill sergeant yoga instructor, Lynne responds, "If we can have you experience one little thing you've never done before, that's excellent." I'm sure she didn't mean back surgery, but how refreshing it is to be in a resort that focuses on giving you a memorable experience, at the risk of enraging their legal team? Later that evening, a friend and I swung our legs freely in the "bird cage" chairs that are in the lounge fire pit area. There was a couple making out on the sofa across from us. I got the feeling that we were having more fun.

Norma's, the breakfast restaurant at the Parker PS, is the best breakfast on the planet., whether you're an egg person, a lox and bagel person, a crab cakes person, a waffle person, a parfait person or a foie gras addict. If you're in the Palm Springs vicinity, whether you are staying at the Parker or not, make sure you make a reservation. You'll want to have dinner at Mr. Parker's as well. More than the food, consider it a field trip back to the Ô70s, when life was a little bit moreÉ daring. You'll delight in the handsome, charming maitre d'. The motto in Mr. Parker's is, "If Andy Warhol would like it, it's here!"

For other gift and/or get away ideas, please check out the NataliePace.com Shopping Mall, located on the home page at www.NataliePace.com. For jewelry, there is nothing more priceless than Sculpture to Wear. For cultural experiences, there is nothing more delightful than the Los Angeles Opera, under the executive direction of Placido Domingo. Our breakout artist is Michel Tabori. (If you purchase his "Forest Triptych" before I do, I'll cry.) For spas, it's hard to beat Canyon Ranch. These and more unique and memorable gift ideas are just a click away in the NataliePace.com shopping mall. You might conveniently leave the page open (or select NataliePace.com as your home page), so that your lover will know where to shop for your gift!

Parker Palm Springs
4200 East Palm Canyon Drive
Palm Springs, California 92264
760.770.5000
http://www.TheParkerPalmSprings.com/new/index.htm

Toys for Tots:
During the holiday season, let us not overlook those who are not in a position to give or receive gifts. NataliePace.com continues to donate 10% of our proceeds to CoAbode.org, an organization that assists single mothers in transitioning into better living situations. While you're planning your gift-giving budget, why not set aside $100 (minimum) to celebrate the holidays as they were truly intended - to share in peace and love. Below are three organizations that would love to receive your support this holiday season.

CoAbode.org. Single Mothers house sharing. This simple, profound solution helps single mothers to double their spending power, cut their expenses in half and have more quality time with their children. It is a nationwide service, with some members in Canada.

ParaLosNinos.org. Charter school and support services for families living on and around Skid Row in Los Angeles, California. This program has become so successful that it is being modeled around the world.

Department of Children's Services. This governmental agency, which is usually a county service, helps find homes for abused and neglected children. They also run Teen Homes, which are group facilities for teens preparing to live on their own. The link will take you to the Los Angeles County Department of Children and Family services. To find a service in your area, just search on Google with the phrase, "Department of Children's Services." These children and teens delight in your generosity, and the Dept. of Children's Services staff happily distribute new, unwrapped gifts.


10 Most Common Investment Mistakes.

by Natalie Pace, CEO and Founder of NataliePace.com.

Learning what to AVOID could save you a bundle.

Song is owned by Delta Airlines (Delta entered bankruptcy on 9.14.05)
  1. Trading on Analyst Recommendations. If you thought Jack Grubman and Henry Blodget (the former analysts who got in trouble for recommending stocks in exchange for favors) were just flukes, guess again. Researchers at the University of California and Stanford found that, in the year 2000, the most highly rated stocks had a -31% return. Those least favored soared an annualized 49%. This study examined 40,000 stock recommendations from 213 brokerages. Analysts may not all be criminals, but they are definitely not fortune-tellers!
  1. Bankruptcy Buying. Think buying Delta at sixty-four cents a share when you are POSITIVE that they will come out of bankruptcy is a BRILLIANT idea? Guess again. Reorganization plans commonly call for the CANCELLATION of the existing common stock, with holders thereof receiving NO distribution. (Translation: your stock becomes toilet paper). Common stock shareholders are commonly wiped out during bankruptcy because they are last on the priority list with claims against the company's assets. Global Crossing, Enron, World Com, U.S. Airways, all of these companies wiped out the common stock after their bankruptcies. Lawsuits are a difficult way to try and recover losses.

  2. Free Fat. Fat may taste good, but too much of that fat good thing is definitely horrible for your health, just as buying in after a company has fattened up its share price can be catastrophic. It's very tempting to buy stock AFTER shareholders have earned seven thousand times their investment, but that is called CHASING MONEY. There were people, lots of them, who bought AOL Time Warner and Priceline at peak share prices in 2000, thinking that heavenly heights could last forever. Too bad losing weight isn't as easy as losing money.

  3. Hot Tips. Pump and Dump schemes abound on the bulletin boards and in those penny stock spam emails, where shareholders (and scam artists) can ANONYMOUSLY talk up stocks for their own gain. When the story sounds UNBELIEVABLE and you think you have to ACT NOW to get it before the rest of the world finds out, you could save yourself a big NIGHTMARE by peeking under the corporate financial sheets. The higher the return that you are promised by anybody, the more research you need to do before investing. Assume hot tips are swampland in Florida unless proven otherwise.

  4. Sure Shots. If someone promises you to double your money in a set period of time, assume that you are dealing with a novice or a scam artist. There are no sure shots in investing, and the higher the potential return, the higher the risk.

  5. Headlines. Headlines are usually not written by the writers who pen the story. They are written by editors to catch your eye. If you don't read the fine print, you could be missing the most important information. Before United declared bankruptcy, investors gobbled up shares of UAL shares on the headline that United had received $1 billion in promised concessions from its unions. A key consideration was hidden on the inside pages, howeverÑthat the Federal Loan Guarantee required $1.5 Billion in union labor concessions. The Loan Guarantee application was subsequently rejected and United Airlines was forced into Chapter 11 only a few weeks after that headline appeared in the New York Times, one of the nation's most respected news sources. The headlines of less respected news sources can be even further from the complete story, which is found in the fine print and often on page 13.

  6. Press Releases. Press releases are written by professional writers, who are employed by the company that they are writing about. Additionally, press releases are not held to the same standards as the official corporate earnings statements that public companies must make with the SEC. A company can talk about an increase in revenue without ever mentioning that increased revenues don't mean the company is PROFITABLE or that, due to cash constraints, the company's fiscal health is on the ropes. If you read anything that is from PRNewsWire, BusinessWire or a company press release, ask yourself, "What aren't they telling me?"

  7. Relying too heavily upon the advice of your broker. If your broker has handled your account beautifully through the market downturns, and/or over the past few decades, just skip this one. You're lucky to have a partner who cares about your future and has the knowledge and expertise to get you there. Many investors don't understand that the broker is the entry-level position in the business, and place far too much faith in their knowledge, morals and information. Many brokerages have extremely high broker turnover. Some brokers are hocking stocks based upon sales commission incentives. Finally, brokers don't have to have a college education or experience in the field (although they do have to pass a series of tests.) Read "Brokers and Lovers, It Pays to Pick a Good One," for more tips on how to find a great broker.

  8. Buy and Hold.   "Buy low, sell high" works every time, whereas buy and hold gains can fluctuate greatly, depending upon when you buy and when you sell.  While you are going to have a 401K that you take a longer view toward, it is still important to re-examine your stocks routinely (once a quarter or at least twice a year), or at specific buy/sell target points.  You might also consider having a smaller portion of your portfolio set aside for more active trading, especially if you are willing to do the research (or into buying a top-performing stock newsletter subscription). As you mature, the asset distributions in your retirement plan need to adjust. Most of us get older once a year.

  9. ROULETTE:  Placing all your chips on one sector.  Even the most stable stocks are considered to be high-risk.  Additionally, all markets are cyclical. Lynn Newman, CFP, warns that if everything in your portfolio is doing poorly, you're not well diversified.  Conversely, if everything is going great, look out!!   As a starting point, you should protect a percentage equal to your age in SAFE investments that do not fluctuate.  Stocks and bonds can both yield negative returns.  Money markets, treasury bills and savings accounts pay lower yields, but have almost no risk.  This is where a great financial partner can help you determine your risk tolerance, and design a plan that's right for you.   

For your convenience and that of your friends, this article is featured on the home page of NataliePace.com, under the Investor Edu navigation link (located across the top of the home page).

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned on this site are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any stock.



Sun Power's Billion Dollar IPO: Investing in Renewable Energy.

Article and Report Card by Natalie Pace

The good news is that top governmental agencies and corporations are getting behind renewable energy, and with oil prices at record highs, the American consumer is downsizing from SUVs and considering solar energy when remodeling their homes. Many states are offering incentives to offset the cost of installing solar panels into homes and buildings. Congratulations are in order to the following companies which have designed 100% "green power" buildings, according to the Environmental Protection Agency: The World Bank, Advanced Micro Devices / Austin, TX Facilities, WhiteWave Foods, The Tower Companies, Hyatt Regency / Reunion & DFW Airport Hotels, and Western Washington University. Click to find out more about the Top 25 partners in the EPA's Green Power Partnership and the Green Vehicle Guide.

The Department of Energy just sponsored its second Solar Decathlon, where teams from universities were challenged to design, build, and operate the most attractive and energy-efficient solar-powered home. (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the American Institute of Architects, the National Association of Home Builders, BP, the DIY Network, and Sprint were corporate sponsors of the event.) Each home was judged in 10 areas: architecture, livability, comfort, power generation for space heating and cooling, water heating and powering lights and appliances. Each solar house had to also produce enough "extra" power for an electric car.

What makes the Solar Decathlon noteworthy for an NataliePace.com stock report card is two-fold. It illustrates that solar energy is, unfortunately, still a novelty, and one solar energy company's products clearly stood out, as their solar panels were used in two of the award-winning houses.

The attendance at this year's Decathlon, DOE's second, which was held in October on the National Mall, was just 120,000 visitors. With over 291 million people living in the U.S., this indicates just how far we have to go before solar powered lifestyles are the norm in the U.S. (and the world). As you can see from the DOE statistics below, wind and solar energy still only account for 2% of the total energy consumed in the U.S., and those numbers haven't moved a whole lot over the last fifteen years. (Petroleum, at 40% is the most widely used energy.) To put this in perspective, people have been touting solar energy since the 1960s (yes, it was peace, love AND solar energy), and still less than 1% of our power is derived from the world's most abundant energy source.

1989

2004

Wind

0.03%

0.14%

Solar

0.07%

0.06%

Total

100.00%

100.00%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy

If numbers bore you, you don't have to read a bunch of mind-numbing charts to know just how small the marketplace is for solar panels today. Just visit your nearest Home Depot, like I did last Saturday.

The conversation went like this:

"Where are your solar panels?"

First employee: "Silver panels?

"No, solar panels. Those things you put on your house that generate solar energy."

First employee: "Oh, I'm not sure. Try over in professional services."

The Professional Services counter was closed, so I leaned over to the person behind the Contractor's counter.

"Where are your solar panels?"

Second employee: "Solan panels?

"No. Solar panels. Those things that you put on your house to make solar energy."

She looks at me as if I'm a Trekkie asking for warp speed converters, but leans in to see if another employee might understand what I was saying (or if I was pulling a prank on them). They figured out that I was indeed asking a "Professional Services" question. Unfortunately, however, the professional services department isn't open on the weekends. (Isn't that when most people do their remodeling?) I asked her if they had any brochures that I could look at. She looked everywhere. I looked through a wall of brochures that included all kinds of home improvement options, but found not one brochure on solar energy.

Now, Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) is making great strides to expand the solar energy market. On November 4, 2005, Evergreen Solar and PowerLight Corporation entered into a definitive agreement for a guaranteed contract, which calls for Evergreen Solar to ship a minimum of $70 million of photovoltaic (PV) modules to PowerLight over the next four years. There are defined options, which could increase the value of the shipments in the contract to approximately $170 million. Shipments to PowerLight are scheduled to commence during the first half of 2006. PowerLight is a leader in large-scale, grid-connected projects for customers worldwide.

Evergreen Solar joined the Russell 2000(R) and Russell 3000(R) indexes on June 24, 2005. That distinction, alongside pictures of contractors installing Evergreen solar panels on government buildings around the White House in D.C., is enough to make any socially conscious investor giddy. This explains why a company that is still cash-negative with a limited, but hopefully growing marketplace, has managed to attract investors to pay $12.00 a share, when in February 2005, 12,500,000 shares were offered at just $5.00 each.

So before you run off and make an emotional play on Evergreen, allow me to give you two important facts that had me turning my attention to an Evergreen competitor. Mind you, in a growing sector, more than one company can benefit. We wish all companies that are pushing forward renewable energy products to be successful, and frankly, even more than investors, I'm hoping to see CUSTOMERS for these products. Please buy solar panels and install them in your home. If you build buildings, please buy solar panels and make your buildings green.

I've carved out a niche and reputation for picking "breakout" companies that are poised to lead their sector, and It's in my nature to get more excited about one company than another. With the pro-business attitude and motivated labor market of Eastern Europe just footsteps away, why did Evergreen choose to build its manufacturing facility in Germany, a country that, like most Western European countries, is known to have a very high cost attached to doing business? Can the contracts they hope to win offset the bottom line costs? Secondly, if Evergreen is the market leader then why did a new competitor just explode on the scene in an IPO that has topped ESLR's market capitalization in under a week? Why does that competitor already have more revenues than Evergreen? Finally, guess which solar panel company happened to be selected for two of the teams that ended up winning first place awards in the Solar Decathlon? You guessed it, the Evergreen Solar competitor: Sun Power, a division of Cypress Semiconductor, which launched a successful IPO on November 17, 2005, putting the company's market value at $1.555 billion.

   On Monday, Oct.10, 2005, it was announced that Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University's energy-efficient, solar-powered house won the Architecture and Dwelling contests at the Solar Decathlon on the National Mall in Washington, D.C. Photo taken Oct. 9, 2005.

Photo by Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon

The Virginia Tech team, which won first place in the Architecture and Dwelling Contest of the DOE's Solar Decathlon, placed a high priority on architectural design and attractive ways to integrate solar power into a home. "We were first drawn to SunPower solar panels due to their unique, all-black design," explained Bob Schubert, faculty advisor to the Virginia Tech team. "The opportunity to take advantage of SunPower's solar panels' great aesthetics and high power output [gave] us an edge in the Solar Decathlon, which considers energy production, consumption and overall building design."

University of Colorado's energy-efficient, solar-powered house
Photo by Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon

University of Colorado's energy-efficient, solar-powered house won first place in the Solar Decathlon on Friday, Oct. 14. "We evaluated more than 100 solar panels to optimize our solar power generation and defend our Solar Decathlon championship title," said Jeff Lyng, student project manager for the University of Colorado. "We were pleased to find that the best panels available were also the most beautifully designed to blend into our building." This award-winning house also utilized the Sun Power solar panels.

Sun Power's three new board members have credentials that include a presidential appointee, Nasdaq nominating committee member and the past Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The CFO is from the Phillipines (where Sun Power's main manufacturing facility is located). The Sun Power founder remains as the President and CTO. In terms of talent, there appear to be brains and experience leading the business expansion, more than cronyism, and the Board isn't just stacked with venture capitalists, investment bankers and personal friends, as can happen with companies that go through long periods of being cash-negative and need investment dollars to stay afloat.

In a stock market that is overpriced (as you can see from the below chart, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is near it's all-time high), it's risky to buy at top dollar, however, even if the company has a great future. Jittery investors could bring the whole market down on worries of oil prices, a real estate bubble, terrorism, etc. If your company's future is mostly hopes and dreams, those are challenged when investors determine that the future is bleak. (Value stocks, i.e. Those that are trading at "on sale" prices, tend to tumble less than growth in a downturn; they've already absorbed their fall.)

As U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bondman said, "They [the winners of the Solar Decathlon] demonstrate that we can have it all - beautiful homes, comfortable homes and homes that produce all the power that they need."

Let's make this renewable energy future our present reality, by investing in solar panels for our homes and buildings. Sign petitions, lobby for tax incentives and march to get a few brochures put into the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world! In terms of the stock, however, it may be wiser to be a waiter than a buyer. We'll keep on eye on Sun Power, and look to add it to our Hot News column if/when the price takes a dip and become more attractive.

Buy the stock on "weakness." Buy the panels to empower our world. Click on Renewable Energy to access this month's NataliePace.com stock report card.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security.



Hot News on Cool Stocks:

Invest in the Santa Rally and a Canadian Clean Up Company.

(Note: These are not buy/sell recommendations. Always consult a certified financial professional before buying or selling stock.)

Stats, Facts, Quotes and Educational Information:

  1. Bioteq Environmental Technologies, inc. Canaccord Capital Corporation has been authorized by Bioteq Environmental Technologies Inc. to sell $5,000,000 worth of BQE units (traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange only). Purchase price is set at $.90 per unit and includes ý of a Common Share Purchase Warrant to buy at $1.25 per share for up to two years. $5,000,000 raised will be used for working capital. Go to Bioteq.CA for more information. Please note that Bioteq, at under a buck a share, is still considered a very high risk "penny stock," which means that you need to do 100 times the research before plunking down your investment. Bioteq is only traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange at www.tse.com.
  2. Blue Chips and Pensions: Endangered Species? Take Action to Protect Yours Now. The S&P 500 reported in July 2005 that 311 companies are currently underfunded on their pension plans. Of the ten companies that owe the most in pension plans, two companies, Delphi and Delta Airlines, recently filed for bankruptcy protection. United Airlines, a corporation that has been in bankruptcy for three years, recently cancelled their pension plan, with the approval of the bankruptcy court. It could pay for you to read the "CelebritiesÉ While You Dream of the Good Life, Your Future Could be Dog Food" article in the archived November ezine (volume 2, issue 11), and consider rolling over your pension into a brokerage IRA or Roth 401K now. There should be no fee to rollover your retirement plan, provided you do not take out any money. This could save your nest egg, or that of a friend or family member. As a general rule, companies founded after 1980 are not in trouble, and companies founded before 1980, when defined-benefit plans were prevalent, are more vulnerable.

  3. Santa Rally. 50% or more of the market gains are typically made in the 4th quarter of the year. If you're looking to buy, make sure you're not buying at a 52-week high, unless it's a company that you think still has a lot of upside growth. If you're looking to sell, odds are, at least historically, that there may be more upside to enjoy if you wait until January. Click on Santa Rally for a breakdown of historical market returns by month (which was part of last month's Hot News column, entitled "Trick or Treat").

  4. 20 BIG WINNERS, which keeps us at #1 in Annualized Returns (according to TipsTraders.com). This hot news article still has the proud honor of featuring twenty companies that have posted positive gains, versus six that have gone south. Of the six that have gone south, we were most concerned with Krispy Kreme, but there are signs (only a few) that Stephen Cooper, turnaround King/CEO, is moving that company forward. Turnarounds are difficult to stomach, even the turnaround of the most popular sweet on the planet. Lawsuits are many. OSIP, IMCL, MSO, NWS and LVS - in our view, these are all great companies with exceptional products and/or leadership. Sometimes it takes awhile for the rest of the investment world to realize that. Jet Blue was taken off because airlines are in disarray with high fuel costs. Love the airline, but can't trust the sector, and it is predicted to report its first unprofitable quarter in 4Q, after 19 quarters of profitability.

  5. Note that Sunoco, NetGear and LifeCell have all been taken off of the Hot News List and Put onto the Profit-Taking List. Challenges for these companies have increased, and the run/ride since NataliePace.com first featured the companies has been very profitable.

Bottom Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information, but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your age, your retirement plan, your risk tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission of providing the news and information you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.

Full disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"

Hot Stocks
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article. It may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they (outside of KKD, which might be a real dud) are poised to continue performing well. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

11.11.05

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Comments

Automatic Data Processing

NO

ADP

$46.84

$47.03

47.43

40.37

+.4%

See the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting ProfitsÉ"

Bioteq Environmental Technologies

VERY HIGH RISK

Penny Stock in a great sector. If your stomach is lined with steel, this could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk bet.

NO

TSX: BQE

(Note this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)

$.80

$.96

$1.05

$.66

+20%

Water treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Breakwater Resources, Falconbridge, and Phelps Dodge. This company is only trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Canaccord Capital Corporation is offering appx. 5 million shares at $.90/unit. Units include warrants to buy at $1.25 for up to two years. Go to Bioteq.CA for more info.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern Europe

See vol. 2, issue 8

No

EUROX

$33.87

$41.38

$40.60

$23.02

+22.2%

Vanguard seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries, in the right, growing sectors. Easy to access information, attention to detail on site, indicates attention to detail in management.

Gevity Human Resources

No

GVHR

$26.48

$28.34

$29.00

$15.45

+7%

See the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting ProfitsÉ"

Intermix

(MySpace.com)

volume 2, issue 4

No

MIX

$7.49

$12.00

11.74

.51

+60%

News Corp. bought Intermix for $12/common share on 9.30.05. Investors will receive cash for their shares.

ImClone

(makers of Erbitux)

See volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article

Trading at 52 week low.

No

IMCL

$34.48

$33.09

87.24

29.51

-4%

CEO resigned 11.11.05, but analysts consider it a positive move. BOD approved $100 million in common stock buybacks. The news for what Erbitux is doing for ovarian cancer patients could hardly be more impressive. 3Q results beat analyst expectations, but reflected much higher costs and lower revenue from Bristol-Myer. Costs jumped to $80.3 million compared with $49.9 million last year. Filed for FDA approval to use Erbitux on head and neck cancer on 8.30.05, and received "priority" review status on 10.31 from FDA. Review expected 2.28.05. Results from study are impressive.

Krispy Kreme

RISK: VERY HIGH

In turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows.

Taken off S&P Midcap 400 effective 10.27.05.

NO

KKD

$10.22

$5.57

32.70

4.40

-45%

KKD is likely not going to meet its 12.15 deadline to file financials with the SEC, and is seeking extensions from loan partners so as not to default. Jeff Jervik, the former national VP of operations for Pizza Hut, has been hired as executive vice president of operations, effective immediately, and the company is actively searching for a new CEO. Steve Cooper, Chief Executive Officer of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. says, "We now have a financially viable business in eastern and central Canada with the potential for solid growth in both the retail and wholesale sides of the business." Don't forget that Michael Sutton, the former chief accountant for the SEC, is on KKD's board.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Read Vol. 2, Iss. 7

The Venetian, Sands Macao

(1st mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)`

 

No

LVS

$37.43

$45.41

53.98

33.10

+21.3%

The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Go to LasVegasSands.com, click on Investor Information, and then Investor Day, to see a Web Cast on fast growing and vast the Macao market is. Huge Consensus Insider selling, including CEO, on 9.13.05 at $35.64, totaling $366 million, for trust diversification purposes. Amounts to less than 7% of CEO trust holdings of LVS. 3Q earnings up to $91 million, compared with a year-earlier loss of $85.9 million. Beat earnings by a penny.

Martha Stewart Omniliving*

RISK: MEDIUM

Management says ad revenue is back, and merchandising is heating up.

NO

MSO

$25.91

$20.20

$37.45

$8.25

-22%

The Apprentice got fired by the public, and Martha's daytime show is sagging. Martha's Rules to be Published in October 2005. MSO is projecting to break-even on operating revenue in 4Q. Deal with KB Home to build/market MSO homes. Martha's 24/7 Channel on Sirius SR launched on 11.21. Ad revenue in mags is picking up big time. Revenue should improve. Although, flops usually spook investors, for a time, Martha has enough "cooking" to make everyone forget the phrase "You're just not working out."

News Corp.

Vol. 2, iss. 10

Dividends

YES

NWS

$16.50

$15.80

19.41

14.97

-4.2%

Featured article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol. 2, iss. 10. Bought Myspace, Scout Media and IGN Entertainment, all IT companies, for far less than competitors are paying for their holdings. With an MC of just $15 billion, we think investors will start taking notice of this undervalued juggernaut.

Opsware

See issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.

RISK: MEDIUM

 

No

OPSW

$1.80

$5.73

$8.90

$3.90

+218%

NataliePace.com Company of the Year 2004 (archived edition 44). Director Michael Ovitz purchased 3/4 of a million in May, at $4.90. 3Q results beat Wall Street revenue expectations. signed 56 new license deals during the quarter and four new deals worth more than $1 million, lifting sales to $15.3 million from $10.2 million last year. 3Q loss was $2.8 million, or 3 cents per share, from $6.3 million, or 8 cents per share, a year ago.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH

Trading near 52-week low.

NataliePace.com's 2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.

YES

OSIP

$63.59

$25.05

98.70

22.57

-60.6%

3Q net loss of $20.0 million and $77.1 million for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2005, respectively, compared with a net loss of $123.2 million and $220.2 million a year ago. FDA approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05, Genetic based "cancer pill." 1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved for lung cancer last November. Canadian regulators approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on 9.21. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche.

Rio Tinto (ADR)

Based in England

DIVIDENDS!

 

See issue 48

RISK: LOW

NO

RTP

$89.60

$165.09

165.09

84.53

+84%

Metals demand is huge; supply is limited; stock price is high. RTP bought back 8.7% of stock as of 5.05, to the tune of US$780 million, and plans to buyback up to $1.5 billion in 2005 and 2006. Analysts say pressure on price should continue on high demand in China and Asia. Increased its dividend by 20 per cent. Finds, processes and mines minerals: copper, iron, coke (from coal), aluminum, titanium dioxide and diamonds. Rio Tinto has been added to Jim Jubak's 50 Best Stocks in the World List (eff. 9.05). Great press usually means more buyers. Hang on, and enjoy the dividends, but don't get sucked into buying high. Even Citigroup has taken RTP down to Hold from Buy.

Sirius

YES

SIRI

$6.02

$7.13

9.43

3.72

+19%

Cheaper prices and edgier programming, including Howard Stern (starting 1.06), Martha Stewart and Rolling Stones 24/7, have us betting on SIRI over competition XMSR. Was last year's Santa Rally present, with gains of over 100% in the last quarter of 2004. Could be as popular of a gift this year as well. SIRI beat expectations, but posted a net loss of $134 million in the third quarter on 10.27.05 due to higher programming and marketing costs. Revenue rose, as subscribers were more than 5 million, more than double from a year ago. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues. Could impact XM. SIRI CEO KARMAZIN MEL purchased $8 million last Nov. $334 million insider selling. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard on SL and CL models for 2007.

Sohu

YES

SOHU

$17.52

$18.74

23.74

14.25

+7%

September's feature company, in the "You Can Do Better Than Baidu" article. Financial Times ranked Sohu in Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05. (6 days after our article.) SOHU selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Insider buying, including CFO.

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

See Vol. 2, iss. 8

No

TREMX

$20.72

$24.50

$24.50

$12.00

+18%

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean Fund.

Russia 26.3%

Egypt 23.2%

Turkey 21.8%

Israel 10.5%

Hungary 6.5%

Energy 15.07%

Financial Svcs 42.55%

Industrial Materials 14.18%

Media 3.25%

Software 3.32%

Telecom 14.17%

Verisign,

Vol. 2, iss. 9

Ring tones, domain names, plus, including JamsterÉ

No

VRSN

$21.91

$22.22

$36.09

$17.02

+1.4%

Q3 2005 earnings reported on Wednesday, October 19th, reflect 28% increase in revenue over last year, to $415 million. Net income was up to $45 million, over $40 million last year, same quarter. Repurchased 9 million shares for value of $215 million in the 3rd Q. Revenue shortfall in the mobile content area is expected to improve, according to CEO.

Yahoo

Vol. 2, iss. 10

No

YHOO

$33.84

$42.13

42.13

30.30

+24%

Featured article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol. 2, iss. 10. Yahoo is the #1 web site, with more traffic, page views and time online than MSN or Google. 3Q Revenues were $1.330 billion for the third quarter of 2005, a 47 percent increase compared to $907 million for the same period of 2004. Net income for 3Q 2005 was $254 million or $0.17 per diluted share, similar to last year's results for the quarter.

Stocks in Profit-Taking Range. Note: We may still like these companies (as we do Genentech and Google) for the long term as companies (which means if you have them in your 401K or long term portfolio, you might want to keep them there), but are taking profits in shorter windows, based on a market that is posting modest gains, with volatile movements. We may look to add some of these great companies to our hot news list again, if the price point should become attractive. In a market of modest gains but high volatility, profits are made in shorter windows.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

10.17.05

(Close-out)

11.24.05

Year High

Year Low

Gains/Loss since Close-out

Comments

LifeCell

Vol. 1, iss. 55

Price is trading near 52-week high. Volatile sector. Great future.

No

LIFC

$10.25

$17.53

$19.80

$25.00

$7.18

+71%

Surgical and reconstructive products. Recall of products, taking a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q to reflect the recall. NY DA investigation of a company supplier of LifeCell (not LifeCell). LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing. However, a hit like this investigation could be devastating. Profit taking now before this story becomes more ugly could be prudent. The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. 3Q 2005 earnings were strong, with revenue of $24.5 million compared to $15.6 million for the third quarter of 2004.

NetGear

RISK: MEDIUM

Trading in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.

No

NTGR

$12.42

$20.76

$20.42

$22.67

$8.85

+67%

BusinessWeek named NTGR as one of its100 Hot Growth Companies. Distribution with Digital China, with 6,000 resellers and agents in Asia's largest market should mean continued growth. However, Consensus insider selling makes us nervous in a market with this much volatility and with executives who are new to the game and largely unproven. Profit taking in shorter windows has been working this year. Third quarter 2005 net revenue increased to $111.3 million, 10% year- over-year growth.

Sunoco

No

SUN

$34.50

$73.67

$80.44

$81.49

$32.35

+113%

Recent court decision assesses after-tax damages of about $40 million through Dec. 31, 2004, which Sunoco will record as a charge in the third quarter. Shut down its LaPorte and Bayport, TX polypropylene facilities and evacuated all its non-essential personnel in TX on 9.22, due to Hurricane Rita. Company press release says extended delays are expected, but hasn't provided more details yet (not a good sign). Oil should remain strong, while supply is constrained and demand is outrageous. However, near term hit to earnings has a chance of being ugly. 3Q 2005 net income was $329 million ($2.39 per share diluted) versus $104 million ($.69 per share diluted) for the 2004 3Q.

Watch List:
Advanced Micro Devices closed out 8.15.05 at $20.85, with 74.3% gains.
Genentech closed out at $80.92, with 328% gains.
Google closed out at $292.72, with 193% gains.
Jet Blue closed out at $19.27, with -9% losses.
Pixar closed out at $51.67, with 21% gains.
Sony closed out at $34.50, with flat performance.
Sun Power is on our watch list. Great future. Looking for a good price.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security.



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