
Vol.3 Issue 6 June 1st, 2006
Send
comments and suggestions. or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
Quote
of the Month:
"The
S&P 500 has rewarded investors 10.5% annually over the past
37 years, with small cap stocks ringing up 12.5% returns. Real
estate increased only 6.7% annually over the same period, and
gold weighed in only slightly ahead of real estate, at 7%. Stocks,
over the long term, are almost double the return of any other
asset class."
Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and founder.
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- M&A
Mania: Citigroup's
Renaissance under Prince, Charles, HRH Sallie and the
King of Wall Street, Sandy Weill. By Natalie Pace.
- INVESTOR
QUIZ: Are you a Bull,
a Bear, an Owl or a Dodo When It Comes to Investing?
Take our quiz and find out!
- Dad
Wants an iPod, not a tie, for Father's Day!
- 40
Million Americans Have No Health Insurance.
Is There a Solution? Dr. Gary
Becker, Nobel Laureate, has one that could make you
rich.
- Keeping
Your Sex Life (and Your Heart) Healthy.
By Jessica Mkitarian.
- Beautify
Your Space: Enrich
Your Life. By Gary Kobat.
- Too
High to Buy: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK.
By Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality
Trends.
- Sex
& Money: You Are Sexy, Sassy and Smart.
So
Should You Pick Up the
Check? By Natalie Pace.
- Water:
the film.
There Are 33 Million Untouchables Living in India Today.
One Noble Man Dared to Touch One. One Brave Woman Tells
the Story. By Maya Patel. Don't miss one of the best
movies of the year!
- You
Know Zillionaires By Their Smiles.
By Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
- Corporate
Goddesses Honored at the Forbes Executive Women's Forum.
By Jane C. Rosen.
- Shorts
and Bikinis. 8 Easy
Beauty Treatments for Smart Investors. By Natalie Pace.
- How
to Be a Better Investor?
Experts say start by suspending your emotions. By David
R. Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter and Buyback
Premium Portfolio.
- Answers
to the INVESTOR QUIZ.
- National
Savings Crisis or Media-Generated Hysteria?
Either Way, It's Time to Start
Saving for a Rainy Day. By Natalie Pace. 8 Tips for
Sailing Through Rising Interest Rates, Inflation and
Other Storms on the Horizon.
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M&A
Mania:
by Natalie
Pace.
Citigroup's
Renaissance under Prince, Charles, HRH Sallie and the King of
Wall Street, Sandy Weill.
Including
a M&A
Mania stock report card that lines up Citigroup's numbers
with other Investment Banks. Click
to access.
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|
Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and founder
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Mergers and
Acquisitions are exploding this year, for the fastest start to
any year since 2000, when the $164 billion AOL-Time Warner merger
was announced. The value of 3,067 deals announced so far, between
January 1st and April 30th, equal $414.31 billion, according to
Thomson Financial,
beating 2005, which saw 3,018 deals with a total value of $361.25
billion, over the same period. During the first four months of
2000, 3,900 deals were announced, for a value of $631 billion.
This year,
on Wall Street's new feeding ground, Disney bought Pixar. Ameritrade
merged with TD Waterhouse, and e*Trade answered by consuming Harris
Direct. Albertson's was bought out.
The question is: which investment bank is benefiting most by this
bounty of new business? Is it Lazard, the company with an explosive
IPO in May of 2005, which has handled over 1000 mergers and acquisitions
valued at over a trillion dollars over the last few years? Or
is Goldman Sachs still the preeminent investment bank? Does Lazard's
restructuring expertise give it a competitive edge, or is Lehman
Brothers, one of the most respected investment banks, according
to a veteran, attracting more business? And which, if any, of
these corporations are still within attractive buying range?
It's earnings'
harvest season across the board; however, there is a big difference
in how investors have been ranking the companies. All of the investment
banks (and divisions) are experiencing record revenue growth in
the current M&A environment, and all, with the exception of
Citigroup, have had explosive share price gains in the last two
years. Lazard reported that revenue rose 32 percent to $355 million
from $270 million in the 1st quarter, and has a share
price that is up 60% from its IPO. Earnings were off, however,
$19.7 million versus $73.4 million a year ago, due to corporate
restructuring. At the time of the IPO, Lazard spun off its Capital
Markets and certain of its Merchant Banking businesses. Lazard's
price to earnings ratio is the highest of its peers, at 27.10,
and all bets are off as to whether the new corporate structure,
with reduced earnings for shareholders, will continue to be appealing.
Lazard's share price, at $40.57 on May 26th, is down
25% from the highs set earlier this month, but, even with that
haircut, Lazard is still trading high to earnings.
Goldman Sachs
generated record quarterly net revenues of $10.34 billion in the
first quarter of 2006, 42% higher than its previous record. Investment
Banking produced net revenues of $1.47 billion, which means a
large chunk of the dough was cooked up on the trading floor, in
a favorable first quarter equity and commodities environment.
(Hedging bets are off on how well hedge funds do against the mid-May
sell-off, and how that will reflect in the earnings announcement
on June 13th.) Goldman Sachs, with an 11.00 P/E, looks
like a bargain, but share prices have already increased almost
20% this year alone, and have moved up over 100% since the doldrums
of 2002. Not surprisingly, insiders are taking the opportunity,
at long last, to jump ship, and have cashed out over $56 million.

source:
MoneyCentral.msn.com
Lehman Brothers'
insiders have cashed out over $116 million. All this while Citigroup's
Board is doing a little insider buying. Citigroup bought back
$12.8 billion of its own stock in 2005, another $2 billion in
the first quarter of 2006 and has authorized an additional $10
billion in share repurchases.
At a price
to earnings ratio of 10.10, the lowest in its class, it turns
out Citigroup might be the best, undervalued M&A play on the
Street, which is saying quite a lot for the company that was better
known for the Jack Grubman scandal just four years ago. Citigroup,
ranked #1 in global debt underwriting, #1 in announced global
Mergers & Acquisitions and #2 in global equity underwriting,
saw investment banking revenues climb by 34% in the first quarter.
Jack Grubman
Who? In 2002, Citigroup, like most investment banks, was subject
to investigations regarding some of the most notorious corporate
scandals of this century - Worldcom, Global Crossing, Enron. Grubman's
swapping a favorable AT&T rating to get his kids into an elite
preschool in Manhattan didn't help Smith Barney's credibility
(SB is owned by Citigroup). In 2002, Citigroup was also being
investigated for its association with Enron (along with a dozen
other investment banks).
Fast forward
to today. Citigroup has one of the largest market capitalizations
in the world, at $246.4 billion, and, even with that massive girth,
is growing some divisions at a pace of 34%. How does a corporation
weather those storms and come out on top? They work fast to isolate
and eliminate the problem, and then polish up their product and
image, which is exactly what Citigroup did.
By December
of 2002, Grubman was gone. He resigned from Citigroup (receiving
a healthy severance package), was banned for life from the securities
industry and was ordered to pay $15 million in fines. To prove
that he was proactive about separating investment banking from
equity research, Sanford Weill, the Chairman and CEO of Citigroup,
hired the most respected CEO in the business, Sallie Krawcheck,
the former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Sanford C.
Bernstein & Company, to clean house at Smith Barney, restoring
integrity to his corporation. Citibank officially settled Enron-related
securities litigation on May 24, 2006 for $2 billion, while Merrill
Lynch & Co., Barclays PLC, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Royal Bank
of Canada, Deutsche Bank AG and the Royal Bank of Scotland Group
PLC are hold outs. Sallie did such a bang-up job at Smith Barney
that they made her CFO of Citigroup.
On April 18th,
when Sandy Weill retired as Chairman and became Chairman Emeritus
of Citigroup, he handed over a crystal clean slate to Charles
Prince, Citigroup's current Chairman and CEO, and the corporation
couldn't be healthier. Record revenues at Smith Barney were driven
by a 32% increase in fee-based revenues and a 4% increase in transactional
revenues. Net income increased 19%. Credit costs declined, with
lower bankruptcy filings and a continued favorable credit environment.
Citigroup is opening their first private bank office in Mainland
China, and has added over 5,500 ATMs to 7-11s across the U.S.
And investment banking revenue has more than tripled, shooting
up to $6.9 billion in 2005 from just $2 billion in 2004, with
revenues diversified around the world, including 39% in the U.S.,
19% Asia, 17% EMEA, 10% Latin America, 8% Japan and 7% Mexico.

Brad Sorensen,
senior sector analyst for the Schwab Center for Investment Research,
writes, "Historically, financial stocks have substantially outperformed
after the end of tightening periods." Commercial banks, like Citigroup,
actually benefit from increasing interest rates, which could hurt
investment banks that rely more upon strong equity markets and
trading for their returns. So, if the Feds stop raising rates,
if mergers and acquisitions continue apace, and if the future
is true to the past, the investment banks could all still have
some upside ahead. There are a lot of ifs in that sentence that
can be avoided by patiently waiting to see what the summer and
the next Fed meeting will do to the market. And if there is a
buying opportunity, it may pay to bet on the bargain-priced dark
horse that is currently the underappreciated champion on Wall
Street - Citigroup.
"My
friends, remember always to strive for excellence and, as you
come close to accomplishing your goals, push them out a little
further and see what happens. You'll be amazed at what you really
can do." Sandy Weill, commenting on his 4.18.06 retirement
as Chairman, Citigroup.
Sandy Weill
retired as one of the most successful businessmen on the planet.
Citigroup has a bigger market capitalization, more sales and higher
earnings than the more famous, Microsoft.
Click to
access the M&A
Mania stock report card that lines up Citigroup's numbers
with other Investment Banks.
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INVESTOR
QUIZ:
Are
you a Bull, a Bear, an Owl or a Dodo When It Comes to Investing?
Take our quiz and find out!
- Experts
say the most important consideration to maximize returns and
minimize risk is:
- asset
allocation
- equity
diversification
- buy
and hold
- Buy
low; sell high
- Cash
is king
- The
top performing asset class over the last 25 years is:
- Real
Estate
- Stocks
- Bonds
- Gold
- Beanie
Babies
- Within
the presidential election cycle, the year with the highest on
average returns is:
- The
year before the election
- Election
year
- One
year after the presidential election
- 2 years
after the presidential election
- Which
web site has the most unique visitors, the most pages viewed
AND the most average minutes per visitor?
- MSN.com
- Google.com
- Myspace.com
- Yahoo.com
- AOL.com
- Which
company has the biggest market capitalization?
- Microsoft
- Cisco
- Berkshire
Hathaway (Class A & B shares combined)
- Citigroup
- Altria
Group
- The
third biggest market capitalization?
- Microsoft
- Cisco
- Berkshire
Hathaway (Class A & B shares combined)
- Citigroup
- Altria
Group
- Mutual
funds and institutional investors currently account for 72.6%
of Altria Group's market capitalization, which means that your
401 (k), if it has mutual funds, is likely invested in Altria.
What industry is Altria involved in?
- Solar
energy and other renewable energy solutions
- Cigarettes
- Technology
- Banking
in China
- Gold
and copper mining
- Which
stock market index has brought in the highest returns in 2006?
- Amex
Composite
- NASDAQ
- Dow
Jones Industrial Average
- S&P
500
- Which
industry group brought in NEGATIVE returns (lost money) during
the first quarter of 2006?
- Consumer
Staples
- Biotechnology
- Utilities
- REITs
- Technology
- Which
index has seen the highest returns since January of 2000?
- Amex
Composite
- NASDAQ
- Dow
Jones Industrial Average
- S&P
500
For the
answers, click on Investor Quiz Answers, located at the end of
the ezine.
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Dad
Wants an iPod:
an
NataliePace.com online Survey shows that Dads want iPods, flat screen
TVs and satellite radio, not ties, for Father's Day!
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| Apple
Computer. |
Our
online survey currently shows that Dad wants an iPod, not a tie,
for Father's Day. In fact, the respondents were Siriusly into
electronics gifts this year, with satellite radio pulling in third,
just behind plasma TVs and iPods (and other music devices). Massage
and pampering and Angelina Jolie tied for fourth favorite gift
(so I guess if you don a brunette wig and stop eating for a week,
you might score extra points for your spa treatment).
The dreaded
tie wasn't the only gift idea to get passed over by the guys visiting
NataliePace.com's site. Art, clothes, magazine subscriptions, power tools
and manly DVDs (the Sopranos, the Godfather, Lord of the Rings,
etc.) were all discarded for the electronics and evening escapades.
(So, you'll have to use that velvet painting of Elvis as a gag
giftÉ)
Nothing beats
just calling up your man's best friend to find out what he really
wants, but you could also search around on the gifts for guys'
section of the NataliePace.com
shopping mall. The NataliePace.com shopping mall links to
Apple, Sony, the Ferrari Store and The Berman/Turner Art Gallery,
to name a few. The Berman Turner Gallery is hosting a huge art
auction on June 11th, with rare prints of famous artists, and
not one velvet Elvis. Promise. (Be sure to ask about Michel Tabori's
art if you visit or call. His artwork has been selling out, and
is regarded by many respected artists and aficionados as the most
emotional and innovative new artist to hit the easels in quite
awhile.)
Happy Father's
Day from NataliePace.com. Hope your day is enRICHing, soul, body, mind
and spirit, and that you get that massage and pampering, even
if you do open up an iPod.
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40
Million Americans Have No Health Insurance.
Is
There a Solution? Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, has one that
could make you rich.
On May 17th,
2006, NataliePace.com subscribers were treated to a rare one-on-one chat
session with Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate and professor at
the prestigious Graduate School of Business at the University
of Chicago. Questions ranged from concerns about a declining dollar,
to interest rates and gold fever, but no subject was of greater
concern than health care. With 40 million Americans uninsured
and the remaining 260 million Americans complaining about ultra-high
premiums and limitations on care, finding affordable solutions
is one of the greatest crises in the U.S. today.
Dr. Becker
is actively endorsing health savings accounts as a solution for
some of the people in the U.S. who are currently NOT covered by
medical care. The HSAs are designed to allow individuals to pay
less for health insurance, without additional risk of catastrophic
claims, while also enRICHing their own portfolio. Dr. Becker describes
how you can contribute to your nest egg during times of health,
while saving up for medical needs that might arise in the future
- all in conjunction with the much more affordable catastrophic
insurance that is currently offered. If you set up a HSA through
your employer, there are tax benefits as well! Find out if you
are passing up another opportunity to get a free raise from your
employer by contributing pre-tax dollars to your own health!
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|
Gary
Becker
Nobel Laureate, Economic Sciences, 1992; Professor, Economics
and Sociology,
University of Chicago; FasterCures Board Member
|
Question:
What happens to interest rates (and our economy in general) in
the U.S. if the euro supercedes the dollar as the worldwide currency?
Iran is talking about using the euro instead of the dollarÉ
Dr. Becker:
The dollar will decline in value, but it would not be a major
problem for the U.S. economy.
Does the
government really need gold as a reserve to back our currency?
No, gold has
lost its value as a reserve. This is especially the case in a
world of flexible exchange rates.
Are there
serious issues with the Federal Reserve being a private institution?
No, the Fed
has, since Volker and Greenspan, done very well. It is better
off being "private" with some independence from the
government.
Why would
a health savings account be better than a great life insurance
policy (whole life)?
Health savings
accounts are very different than life insurance. HSAs help plan
for medical expenses while alive. They also allow unpaid amounts
to be carried over tax-free to future years. Life insurance pays
benefits after death. Unused balances under HSAs are accumulated
tax-free. The employer-based HSA also allows contributions to
the account each year to be made tax-free. The President proposed
extending this benefit also to individual HSAs. I support very
strongly that extension.
Can't you
draw against life insurance? We take loans out all the timeÉ
One can draw
against life insurance, but that cuts benefits if a person dies.
A health savings account is meant to provide for medical care
while alive without affecting how much life insurance one has.
Do HSAs
get refunded when you die or do they go into your estate?
HSAs are not
refunded if a person dies, but unspent amounts can be accumulated
until retirement and then used as retirement income.
What do
you think about Social Security with the Baby Boomers? Are we
going to have enough money for them to retire?
There will
not be enough unless we either raise the retirement age at which
social security benefits are received, cut benefits, or go to
a radically different system, such as individual retirement accounts.
I support the last, but the present system can be saved with radical
changes.
On the
PBS program last night, they said there was an extensive study
that showed 401 (k)s weren't working as well for the working lower
middle class as it does for upper middle and the wealthy. Apparently
returns were highly correlated with education and higher paying
jobs. So, are the undereducated people in the US getting a raw
deal? Are they really sophisticated enough to make their own retirement
choices and is there enough information/education available for
them to get smart about how to invest?
I agree that
the less educated have more trouble making some of these decisions.
That is why one needs simple plans. The health savings account
is not a complicated idea. Many people can easily understand it.
How much
can you put away per person in the HSA per year? $4000 isn't enough
for one ER visit!
At present,
a family can put away up to $4,500 per year, although the President
has proposed raising that amount by a lot. With the accumulation
of unused contributions, the value of a HSA can be considerable.
But HSAs are not intended for any catastrophic medical claims.
That has to be covered with catastrophic insurance.
HSAs sound
like they operate like IRAs or 401 (k)s. Is that the basic model?
I can buy catastrophic insurance with a high deductible and have
the money socked away in the HSA in case I need to pay the deductible
and coinsurance, right? I'm guessing that means that I pay less
money each month to the insurance company, and have more that
I can put in my piggy bank.
HSAs operate
like IRAs, etc., only in the sense that accumulated balances are
not taxed. But with an IRA, withdrawals are taxed with a penalty
if they are made early. That is not true of HSAs if they are used
before age 65 for medical expenses. There is no tax or penalty
on withdrawals used for medical care.
It sounds
like your tax system in the U.S. is not too much different than
ours in Canada!!
No. The U.S.
system is very different from Canada's in many ways, especially
for the far greater role of private insurance and private doctors
in the U.S. system.
So, it's
an IRA that you use for medical care, kind of like that plan for
education, right? Is this forcing people to pay for their own
health, taking individuals away from dependency upon the government
and the corporation?
The HSA is
like an IRA in that it can be used without penalty for medical
care. It does give people incentive to economize on spending in
order to have more money for future expenses that are more important.
In other words, it tries to introduce better incentives into the
health system.
The PBS
program seemed to be implying that corporations were shirking
their duty to employees, that by establishing the 401 (k), they
were able to snake out of millions of liabilities and put the
burden back on the individual. What do you say to that accusation?
There are
no free lunches. Individuals should bear much of the responsibility,
along with how much to save and their income at older ages. That
all depends upon their savings decisions.
Thank you
Dr. Becker for sharing your wisdom. Dr.
Becker has his own weekly blog
on his web site, which is amazingly easy to read, given that you
are receiving the highest level of information and insight about
the economy. Click to access it now. I highly recommend that you
check it out every week so that you will join the pretty smart
ranks of people planning their own riches and retirement.
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Keeping
Your Sex Life (and Your Heart) Healthy.
by
Jessica Mkitarian.
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Jessica
Mkitarian (on left) and her friend, Sima
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Staying
healthy is different for womenÑand not just because we are always
on diets. Some of us are trying to have a baby, while others
are trying to remember to take our pills so we don't get pregnant.
With new studies and discoveries everyday, maintaining our health
can be as confusing as finding the right diet. Luckily, we had
urogynocologist Amy E. Rosenman, M.D. and cardiologist Sandra
P. Fallon, M.D. give us some important information and advice
on women's health issues. Both doctors spoke at the "Think
Pink for Women's Wellness" luncheon that was held to raise
money for the Irene
Dunne Guild of Saint John's Health Center in Santa Monica.
Birth
Control: The Patch vs. The Ring
The patch contains substantially more hormones than were
anticipated, putting women at higher risk for phrombochlebitis
(small blood clots). Dr. Rosenman recommended the transvaginal
birth control ring, which has the lowest dosage of hormones
(a good thing for your body and your mood). Uneasy about leaving
a ring in there for a month? Dr. Rosenman said, "Other
things have been in there, and the little ring will not make
a difference." She also commented on the comeback of Intrauterine
Devices. In the past, women experienced a lot of scarring with
IUDs. It has been found that this was associated with the string,
not the actual IUD. Dr. Rosenman explained that the "string
was an area for bacteria to grow," and that has been replaced
now. Since the IUD is no longer associated with the same problems,
it has re-emerged as a viable birth control option.
HPV and
Cervical Cancer
What does HPV have to do with cervical cancer? It is estimated
that 70% of women will have been exposed to the Human Papillomavirus
in their lifetime. Not everyone gets cervical cancer from exposure
to the virus, but HPV is now considered the leading cause of
cervical cancer, and smokers run a higher risk than non-smokers
of developing the diseaseFortunately, there is a new vaccine
that protects against 2 of the 100 strains of HPV. Don't worry,
these 2 strains are responsible for 80% of cervical cancers,
making the new vaccine an excellent protector against main cancer
causing strains. On May 19th, the FDA Advisory Panel voted unanimously
to recommend approval of the cervical cancer vaccine, Gardasil,
which is owned by Merck.
Trying
to Have a Baby?
The optimal age to have a baby is still under 30, nature-wise.
Once you hit 40, fertility rates lower, and once you hit 45,
they lower significantly. But you can freeze your eggs now,
right? Dr. Rosenman said, "We're really good at freezing
[eggs]; we're not really good at thawing them. She stated the
take home baby rate for frozen eggs is far less than that of
frozen embryos, which have an extremely successful take home
baby rate. Something to think about while you're trying to decide
how and when to fit your career into your plans for a family,
or your mother role into your career. As my mom always says,
"There's never the perfect time to have a baby. There is
never enough money. You never have a big enough house or the
perfect job!" So good luck!
The Effects
of Estrogen
A Women's Health Initiative Study was put to a stop in 2002,
when a link was found between estrogen and increased risks for
breast cancer and heart attacks, however recently released data
on the study shows that estrogen may not be the villain. The
average age of the women in the study was 63, whereas menopauseÑand
the need to take estrogen hormones to relieve the onset symptomsÑbegins
on average at age 51. It is also possible that women in the
study had undiagnosed heart disease prior to taking the estrogen.
At any rate, Dr. Rosenman pointed out that the effects of estrogen
on a 63 year-old woman who is well into menopause is likely
very different than the effects on a 51-year-old woman who is
taking a low dosage for a short period of time to ease the most
uncomfortable systems of menopause.
When the
study was halted, "a lot of women went off all hormones
and were miserable and uncomfortable," according to Dr.
Rosenman. She suggested taking estrogen if needed for menopausal
symptoms, and to take the lowest dosage for the shortest period
of time. Also, progesterone, when combined with estrogen, may
have more negative side effects than when taken separately;
however, this is still being researched.
The Incontinence
Solution
Do you leak urine when you cough, laugh, play tennis, etc?
Some women think this is just a side effect of giving birth,
but incontinence (the involuntary loss of urine) is not normal,
according to Dr. Rosenman. There are solutions that are non-surgical
and minimally invasive. If you have outpatient surgery, you
can even go home the same day, and be back to a normal schedule
in a week. Also, ask your doctor about tension free vaginal
tape.
Are You
at Risk for a Heart Attack or Stroke?
One-third of all women will die from a cardiovascular event
like a heart attack or stroke. Women who survive these events
are often left chronically disabled and must depend on others
for their care. Dr. Fallon gave three questions to know if you
are at risk:
1. Did
your father have a cardiovascular event at age 55 or younger?
2. Did your
mother have a cardiovascular event at age 65 or younger?
3. What is
your cholesterol level?
4. Do you have any symptoms on exertion, especially chest discomfort?
Dr. Fallon
explained that women don't have typical symptoms for heart attacks.
It might be as simple as: Is your chest uncomfortable, and is
that aggravated by taking a deep breath?
The Stress
Factor
Before manifestations are significant in a cardiovascular
event, you start seeing some stress factors. Stress is associated
with stress hormones, which elevate blood pressure and increase
your heart rate. Dr. Fallon calls these "molecules of emotions,"
and refers to the book Molecules of Emotion by Candace Pert,
PhD who describes the production of hormones from the gut, so
pay attention to your "gut feelings." So don't stressÑseriously.
Lowering stress can lower blood pressure, and having a blood
pressure that is 110 or less will reduce your risk of having
a stroke or a heart attack (duh!). Cardiovascular events can
also be reduced 20% by lowering LDL cholesterol (Low Density
Lipoproteins, also known as "bad" cholesterol) below
70. But Dr. Fallon said to forget "bad versus good,"
if you have high cholesterol, you need to reduce it!
Diet
and Exercise
One of the easiest ways to lower your blood pressure isn't
taking a pill, it's exercise! If you want to lower your blood
pressure and heart rate, you should exercise 30 to 40 minutes
a day, 5 times a week, according to Dr. Fallon. Salt intake
is also key; you need less than 2000 mgs of salt a day. As always,
fruits and vegetables are important, as they are associated
with a reduction in hypertension. Dr. Fallon also suggested
looking into the Dash diet. A by-product from all that good
food and good exercise: you get a body to rival Jessica Alba,
which means more dates, which means more endorphins, which are
definitely "happy hormones!"
The
Irene Dunne Guild
is a major support group for the Saint John's Health Center,
sponsoring the Angels of the ER (a team of volunteers that assists
patients and families in the Emergency Room), the Irene Dunne
Guild Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and more. The members of
the Guild act as goodwill ambassadors to the community. If you
would like more information or would like to donate to the guild,
please click
to go to their website:
Jessica
Mkitarian is currently an undergraduate junior studying economics
at Boston University. She enjoys writing and travel, and plans
to continue her studies, and obtain her Masters in Economics.
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Beautify
Your Space:
Enrich
Your Life.
by Gary
Kobat.
"By
expressing your intention to improve the energy in your space,
and by making a commitment of action to it, you are sending out
an infinite wave of higher-level vibration that will positively
alter your energy experiences and your abundance in life."
Gary Kobat
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That's
our own Gary pacing Jim Carrey in Jim's first Half Ironman.
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You
are your environment. A sanctuary and retreat for some, a clear
and powerful platform for others, and a chaotic mess - inside
and out for even others still. Every inch of every space that
you live-in or occupy regularly has an energy, an intent, a flow
as an extension of who you were, or who you are now. Photos, light,
music, fragrance, color, plants, piles of clothes, papers, gifts,
clutter, or even a clogged digestive tract or tired adrenals have
a direct influence, an energy about them that either ground and
anchor you to a clear and healthy future, or sluggishly hold you
back. No different then "you are a walking opportunity"
or "you are a testimonial in progress"É make no doubt
about it: you are your environment.
Clearing Space,
or space clearing is an ancient technique that provides
a beautiful way to clear out all of the old, stagnant or chaotic
energy in any space, preparing you for new beginnings and positive
outcomes. Space clearing offers an opportunity to focus your attention
on more subtle, yet profoundly influential factors of a healthy
life plan. The act of clearing space not only transforms the energy
found there, but it provides an opportunity to become grounded
inside yourself, affirming your goals and reflecting on where
you are and where you would like to be. This process can be a
life long exercise, embracing a more enlightened way of living,
eliminating excess baggage, freeing you, clearing your mind, lifting
you emotionally, and giving your space new value and new meaning.
One of the
most basic rules regarding health is to make sure your space is
healthy - inside and out. Keeping it clean, organized, free flowing,
and uncluttered is the best way to attract positive, healthy chi
or energy into it. Take a few precious moments to ponder your
space, quietly observe each room, each area of your body, your
mind and your spirit and allow yourself to experience the emotions
that arise as you become more aware of what you see.
If what you
see or feel makes you feel frustrated, depressed, angry, or any
other low energy negativity, use these as your guide. It is here
where you begin to change your energy and here where you begin
to change your life.
Besides having
an effect on your energy field, these possessions or conditions
require your attention. They pull at you and your energy all the
time. They can actually distract or prevent you from doing things
that you love in life and from getting in touch with your true
higher self. There are deep and real messages about yourself hidden
in these piles or blockages of stuff. You must ask yourself why
you feel like you need to own and hold on to so many things. Realize
also, that in order to make changes happen in your life, you must
provide an environment that invites change, clearing out the old
in order to make room for the new.
You must be
patient and kind with yourself as you begin to look at the baggage
in your life. Some things will leave effortlessly, while others
will pull at your heart and put your stomach in knots. Do not
force anything. Donate some of your belongings and imagine those
items being discovered by people who are thrilled to find them;
send them out with a blessing that will enrich someone else's
life. Start a non invasive internal cleanse mentally, spiritually,
and physically as well. Slowly the process will become easier
as you become accustomed to letting things go. Don't rush. Don't
be careless. You will find that as you do this that your spirit
will begin to feel lighter. You will also feel amazed that you
suddenly have a knack for finding just the right item or eat just
the right fuel or think just the right thought or connect with
just the right energy frequency the next time you need something.
When you make
room for a new life, new health, a new spirit, you create a current
of energy that draws awesome-ness to you. Remember that the energy
in your space and your own internal process are inseparable. By
expressing your intention to improve the energy in your space,
and by making a commitment of action to it, you are sending out
an infinite wave of higher-level vibration that will positively
alter your energy experiences and your abundance in life.
Until next
month: Clear space, train smart. Live, race and recover smarter.
A passionate
life and fitness coach, world-class athlete, author, and keynote
speaker, Gary Kobat works one-on-one with select individuals,
customized mastermind groups, and larger goal oriented teams for
lasting personal and professional change. If you are interested
in joining a group or for a private consultation, email him directly
at: gary@e-coach.com.
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Too
High to Buy: INVESTMENT OUTLOOK.
by Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment
Quality Trends.
It has been
said that most people's historical perspective begins with the
day of their birth. Perhaps that is what George Santayana was
alluding to when he said something to the effect that "those
who are ignorant of the past are condemned to repeat it."If
you haven't been paying attention, the U.S. dollar, our currency
and the world's reserve currency (for the time being anyway),
is dropping like a rock as the world diversifies into the Euro
and a basket of Asian currencies.
This isn't
the first time a world power has had their currency debased. Actually,
every currency in history that wasn't backed by hard assets such
as gold has gone the way of the dodo; hmm, what an appropriate
analogy.
Since the
mid 1990's America has benefited from the kindness of the Chinese
as they have recycled the dollars we have poured into their coffers
into purchases of Treasuries, which have kept interest rates low,
and the great consuming machine powering ahead. What happens to
the dollar and interest rates when this tidy little arrangement
falls apart?
The big economic
picture is completely missed when the markets start to focus on
each release of data and every sentence by a member of the Fed
is put under the microscope to find the nuance that will give
the signal to move ahead or fall back.
The financial
press is drooling at the prospect of the Dow topping the old high
of 11,700. I know that is supposed to mean something but forgive
me for missing the point. 11,700 is a price, which has nothing
to do with value. Price to earnings ratios (P/E) fall to extreme
levels and dividend yields rise to extreme levels in a bear market.
Neither of these things happened from 2000 through March 2003.
Never has a market gone from the extreme valuations seen at the
end of 1999 beginning of 2000 just back to normal; bear markets
always over adjust to the downside.
My point?
Hold on to your hats folks because this one isn't over yet. Overvalued
stocks should be liquidated and redeployed to Undervalued stocks.
If there aren't any new Undervalued stocks to take positions in,
then the yield on short-term Treasuries is one that shouldn't
be ignored.

The Hulbert
Financial Digest ranks IQ
Trends the number one investment newsletter out of
the 165 letters surveyed for risk-adjusted returns for the previous
twenty years. Investment
Quality Trends also qualified for the Total
Return Ranking for twenty years. What is important to note is
what separates IQ Trends from the other four letters in the top
five; specifically the amount of risk required to generate returns.
Two of the letters had about the same level of risk as the Wilshire
5000 index; one was almost twice the risk of the Wilshire
5000 and the other more than twice the risk of the Wilshire
5000. IQ Trends achieved its returns with about 24%
less risk than the Wilshire 5000. Beyond the obvious that
superior returns with less risk is desirable, less risk equates
to less volatility and therefore generates higher compound rates
of return over time. If you are interested in accessing Mr. Wright's
newsletter, to post those kinds of gains yourself, go to www.IQTrends.com.
Please
note: The opinions of writers contributing to NataliePace.com are their
opinions, and not necessarily those of our staff and editors.
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media
and information center. This article is intended to educate and
inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive
edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies
mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable
financial professional before buying or selling any security.
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Sex
& Money: You Are Sexy, Sassy and Smart.
SoÉ
Should You Pick Up the Check?
by Natalie
Pace.
 |
| Demi
Moore and Ashton Kutcher, |
Fortunately,
thanks to the hard work of the women who have come before
us, American women are free, free, free to get an education
and get pretty much any job we desire, so, thankfully, many
of us can afford to pick up our own checks. But should you?
Or should you politely excuse yourself to the powder room
just before the check arrives, to allow him to make the
choice? Should you discuss it beforehand? Should you take
charge and just snatch the bill before he does? As if procreating
the species and having a monthly period wasn't hard enough,
now we have to figure out an entirely new mating dance!
Who picks up the check?!!
The
question really isn't whether or not you should pick up
the check. The question is: what kind of relationship are
you interested in? Once you are in a relationship,
you'll be giving your hot guy a say in a lot of things,
but when you are just dating, your job is simple. You need
to pick the right dream guy so your time together doesn't
become a nightmare. Now, picking up the check (or not) sends
a relationship signal to your date early on about the kind
of relationship that you are interested in. So be sure that
you are smart about the message you send, so that you are
setting yourself up for the relationship you truly desire!
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Are
you more of a Demi, a Princess Di or a Hillary?
Girls
Who Pick Up.
* Do
you like treating your friends to a good time?
*
Are you so wealthy that the only guy who can pick up your
check is Stavros Niarchos III?
* Do you own your own Gulfstream jet?
Let's
face it. Britney Spears could have dated one of the Google
founders, if she wanted to play Grace Kelly in the relationship.
Whether it was a conscious choice or not, she picked a dancer
to be her husband and the father of her son. Since the goal
is to be sexy, sassy, smart and happy, make sure you make
your choices before you start drinking! If you have more
money than the Queen of England (like J.K. Rowling does),
or have a dream job that you want to place first in the
relationship, and/or are looking for someone to play a supportive
role to you, then, by all means, reach for the check (with
all of the femininity that you desire to summon) on ALL
of your first dates.
The
challenge of a woman who rules the roost in a relationship
is finding a great guy and not just a leech who is fawning
all over you because he can't afford his own cover charge!
Demi Moore didn't do so badly with Ashton!!
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|
Girls
Who Are Provided For.
 |
| Princess
Grace and Prince Rainier of Monaco, with their first
two children, Princess Caroline and Prince Albert. |
American
girls are doing pretty well in the Queen department. Grace
Kelly, the Queen of Monaco and Princess Caroline's mother,
was an American actress when Prince Rainier came calling.
Queen
Noor of Jordan, originally of California, was a Princeton
graduate who dreamed of working in the Peace Corps when
King Hussein asked her to marry him.
|
 |
| Queen
Noor chairs the first meeting
of KHF Board of Trustees, June 30, 1999. |
Queen Noor
is now one of the most important voices for peace in the world,
and, even more importantly, in the Middle East. She is Chairman
of the Board of Trustees of the King Hussein Foundation, proving
that playing a supportive role to a great man is not such
a bad gig. (Note: a great partner is the key in all
of these scenarios.) |
|
Girls
Who Want an Equal Partnership (and Pick Up the Check Sometimes)
 |
| President
Bill Clinton and First Lady Hilary Rodham Clinton At
the 2004 Democratic National Convention |
Politics
aside, you have to admire the strength of the Clinton's
marriage and relationship. (It can be argued that Hillary
picked a great, horny man. She's been quoted as saying,
"It's hard to keep an old dog on the porch.")
During his Presidency, Bill Clinton gave Hillary more power
and influence than any other First Lady in history. She
leveraged that into winning a seat in the Senate, and is
now a leading Presidential contender for the next Democratic
primary, with one of the most popular and powerful world
leaders as her biggest cheerleader!
|
So, to pay
or not to pay is an important choice! But, the most important
decision you'll ever make isn't who pays, but picking a great
partner. Brokers and Lovers: It pays to pick a good one, regardless
of who buys lunch.
Take
the NataliePace.com
Online Survey: Should a woman pick up the check on a date?
Go to the home page at NataliePace.com. Click on any survey, and
you will be taken to the Survey page, where you can participate
in all three online surveys, including our date protocol survey.
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Water:
the film.
There
Are 33 Million Untouchables Living in India Today. One Noble Man
Dared to Touch One. One Brave Woman Tells the Story.
by Maya
Patel.
Don't miss
one of the best movies of the year!
Water
begins with an eight-year old girl, who is widowed. Widows are
expected to spend the remainder of their existence in renunciation
and atone for the past sins that resulted in the death of her
husband. And that is the beginning of a twisted story, one that
is still lived by millions of widows in India today.
A widow in
the Indian Holy City of Varanasi left an indelible mark on director
Deepa Mehta. Deepa describes this woman as "bent like a shrimp,
scampering on all fours and head bowed in defeat." Ten years
later, against extremist opposition and rioting, she shares the
story of the outcast widows in an emotionally igniting film -
Water. The film is a triumph, but so is the completion
of the film. After violent protests by Hindu fundamentalists forced
an end to production in India, a doggedly determined Mehta finally
finished her masterpiece years later in Sri Lanka.
Don't think
this is just your average boo-hoo chick flick, however. Mehta's
masterpiece is a compelling drama, one of the most moving love
stories ever written, and Water is being applauded by film
critics as one of the best films of the year. It's hard to imagine
anyone not being moved by this story.
The movie
is set in 1938 Colonial India where child marriage was still prevalent.
Marriages of young girls to older men were arranged by families
for economic reasons. When the men died they left behind young
widows that were farmed out to widow houses as they were considered
financial burdens by their families. Most of the women were not
literate. Water begins with an eight-year old girl who
is widowed and sent to a house where she is the youngest member.
The realities
of tradition and human nature are unveiled through the day-to-day
lives of the widows. Tradition has cast hardship on the widows.
They are separated from society not only by their physical residence,
but also based on outward appearance. They have shaved heads and
are wrapped in white linen as they must renounce all worldly possessions.
The restraint required to do this has profound physical effects
on these women. Most of the widows blindly follow tradition, as
does the surrounding society. Widows are considered polluted;
as a result they are treated like pariahs.
These
women are stalwart. They lead lives devoid of material pleasure
and are considered outcasts by society. They rely on tradition
and religion to derive strength. However, when it is necessary,
they break tradition and morals to sacrifice one of their own
to the greater good of all. That is where the seed of all the
mayhem of the film lies - in one lovely young woman who is allowed
forbidden pleasures, which include having long, flowing hair and
even nightly boat rides across the waterÉ
Deepa Mehta
captures the essence of human nature as she shows the interaction
between the widows and the world outside the walls of the widow
house. These interactions may seem like trivial points, until
you realize the emotional pull each carries. It evokes emotions
in the audience because you see how each negative interaction
erodes the character of these widows.
The movie
is not completely dismal. Despair is juxtaposed against hope.
There is a Ghandian idealist who is symbolic of change. There
is also one widow, who casts aside tradition to save a life, after
struggling with issues of tradition versus modernity.
Due to the
historical context of the movie, it would be easy to assume that
this was history. Unfortunately, there are still 33 million widows
in India, and many in the rural areas, where tradition is still
sacred, are outcasts. This movie is eye opening not only for garnering
attention to the plight of the widows, but also for tackling the
social construct that perpetuates these issues.
It is the
director's hope that "people who see [Water] will feel compassion
for their fellow beings, even though they might be totally unfamiliar
with the characters' interior and exterior landscape."
If you would
like to take action please visit the Water
website:
Water
Playing
in Manhattan at the Paris Theatre and Angelika Film Center and
in Southern California at the Laemmle Theaters
Written (in
Hindi, with English subtitles) and directed by Deepa
Mehta; director of photography, Giles Nuttgens; edited
by Colin Monie; music by Mychael Danna, with songs by A. R. Rahman,
lyrics by Sukhwinder Singh; production designer, Dilip Mehta;
produced by David Hamilton; released by Fox Searchlight Pictures.
Running time: 114 minutes.
WITH: Seema
Biswas (Shakuntula), Lisa Ray (Kalyani), John Abraham (Narayan)
and Sarala (Chuyia).
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You
Know Zillionaires By Their Smiles.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
I wear gold
tennis shoes. Always. I have gold leather tennis shoes for regular
wear, gold mesh tennis shoes with rhinestones for speaking engagements,
and gold-beaded tennis shoes for black tie affairs. All gold tennis
shoes, all the time.
At first,
I only wore them for fun. Then one year I gave up high heels for
Lent and I haven't had them on my feet since. I decided that being
comfortable and cute in my own wayÑnot in the fashion industry
wayÑmakes me a Zillionaire. I am always comfortable and my feet
never hurt. That makes me happy, and happiness is a Zillionaire
trait. You will know Zillionaires by their smiles.
What do you
really want? Not what you think you should want, or what your
parents said you should want, or what your spouse, partner, friend,
magazines or television says would be a great thing to want. Zillionaires
are aware of the inner core values that are important to them,
and their outer lives reflect them. Inner core value: comfort.
Outer reflection: gold tennies.
But what if
you don't know what you want? At one point in Alice in Wonderland,
Alice was walking through the woods when suddenly the path she
was walking on diverged in two different directions. Confused,
she stopped, not knowing which path to take.
At that moment,
the Cheshire Cat appeared in the tree next to her. She asked him
which way she should go. "Where are you going?" he inquired.
"I don't
know," she replied.
"Then
it doesn't matter which path you take, does it?" said the
Cat, and disappeared.
If you don't
know where you're going, any path will take you there. Tell me
what you want and I can help you locate the right port, help you
navigate your ship into that port, and the Universe will kick
in the right breeze to lift your sails. But no one knows how to
help you get to "I don't know."
Pick a goal.
Any goal. Your best guess for today will do. Don't wait for the
right goal or the perfect goal. It may be around the bend in the
road and you can't see it from where you stand today. Pick an
interim goal that will get you in action, give you experience
in achieving goals, and one day you'll find yourself around that
bend where your "perfect goal" is within reach after
all.
Here are some
questions to guide you: How much money do you want to make? What
job do you want to do that pays that kind of money? Think about
what your talents and skills are, and what you most enjoy doing.
Who are the people who need what you have and would pay you for
it? Decide whether you want to work for someone else or own your
own business; whether you want to work as part of a team, or alone
as a sole practitioner.
If
your fondest desire is to own your own business, how big would
you like it to be? Do you want to serve many customers or just
a few? Choose whether you want to be a hair stylist or own a chain
of beauty salons. Choose whether you want to be a personal trainer
or own a gym. Or a chain of gyms. If you want to manufacture a
product, choose how many. Do you want to lovingly handcraft fine
cabinets yourself, or do you want to mass-market furniture? Do
you want to be a sole practitioner accountant or develop a giant
multi-national firm like the Big Four? Do you want a job, a career,
a profession, or a calling? What moves you, motivates you, inspires
you? What gets you up in the morning with a smile and an "I
can hardly wait"?
Children are
masters of "I can hardly waits." They are laser-focused
when they decide they want something. They want it all and they
want it now. And they "can hardly wait" until the day
when they get it.
When my nephew,
Robert, was four years old, both of his older sisters were on
T-ball teams. They had bright, crisp uniforms and practiced every
week. When game day came, the whole family sat in the bleachers
and cheered them on. More than anything else, Robert wanted to
play T-ball.
But there
were no T-ball teams for four-year-olds. The minimum age was five.
Mama Jane patiently explained this to him every time he watched
his sisters play. "Okay, I'm going to play T-ball, too,"
Robert said. "Just as soon as I'm five. I can hardly wait!"
Then one warm
spring afternoon, Jane, Robert, the two girls and their dad went
to the neighborhood park. There were several families there already,
and they had started a pick-up game of T-ball. Laughing, the girls
and their parents ran out on the field to join in the fun. But
Robert stayed behind.
Jane turned
around and saw Robert on the sidelines looking dejected.
"Come
on, Robert," she called, "You can play with us today!"
"No,
I can't," said Robert.
"Yes,
you can!" Jane exclaimed. "Today you can play."
"I can?"
Robert asked, wide-eyed with excitement. "Am I five?"
Today, let's
all be five. Let's play T-ball, or basketball, or tennis, or poker,
or Wheel of Fortune. Let's join a group and play a game for all
we're worth. Play the Game of Life for all we're worth. It's the
only game in town, and the only way to lose is not to play, crying
"I don't know what I want."
CHAT
WITH CHELLIE THIS MONTH
Learn
more about how to develop that lust for life that bursts on the
faces of so many accomplished entrepreneurs. Chat one-on-one with
Zero to Zillionaire author Chellie Campbell on Wednesday, June
14th at 8:45 a.m. PT (11:45 a.m. ET) about how to transform
your dream business into a dream come true. Learn how to make
the personal changes and personal choices (from affirmations and
visualizations to choosing great partners and staff) that will
allow wealth to be attracted to you. (Subscribers only. You can
register for 90 days free now on the NataliePace.com home page.)
Chellie
has helped thousands of entrepreneurs increase their net income
and personal wealth and her no-nonsense, easy to implement strategies
start working from the day that you using them.
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Corporate
Goddesses Honored at the Forbes Executive Women's Forum.
by Jane
C. Rosen.
On
May 8th I had the honor of presenting my new book,
My Life as a Corporate Goddess to 160 beautiful
Corporate Goddesses at the Forbes Executive Women's Forum. Under
the theme of Leading to Change, Forbes created a forum for serious
women to discuss serious issues amidst the hugs and laughter of
gal-pal camaraderie.
It was the
perfect "coming out party" for the book. Not only was
it the right audience, but also two of the women featured in its
pages were speakers. Both Janet Hanson, founder of 85 Broads and
Managing Director at Lehman Brothers, and Connie Duckworth, past
Chair of Committee of 200, President and Chairman of the Board
of Arzu, Inc. and retired Partner and Managing Director of Goldman,
Sachs, & Co. graced panel discussions with other outstanding
women.
Kendall Crolius
of Forbes introduced me, and I read excerpts from several chapters,
which were greeted with much laughter and applause. I described
the Corporate Goddess, power ties vs. the power of heels
from my chapter "White Guys in Ties," and a little taste
of "Corporate Goddess with Children." This last
excerpt begins with a quote from Gloria Steinem, who was being
honored with the Forbes Trailblazer award that evening. So, not
only did I get to be the warm-up act for Ms. Steinem, but I had
a chance to talk with her after she received her award and inspired
us with her eloquent speech.
As I handed
her a copy of my book she said, "I understand you quoted
me today." And I replied, "Of course I quoted you."
After all, she is the voice for women leaders who dare to follow
their dreams.
The following
day was delightful. A number of women came by to tell me that
they had begun reading my book and they thought it was hysterical
and informative. My favorite comment was a woman from Texas who
said, "Girl, you are a hoot!"
I wrote My
Life as a Corporate Goddess for these women, to bring
humor to the serious work they do, and they graciously received
my gift with open arms. I couldn't ask for more.
You can
purchase My Life as a Corporate Goddess by going to the
website, www.mylifeasacorporategoddess.com.
Just click "buy the book" which takes you to the publishers
secure on-line bookstore.
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Shorts
and Bikinis.
8
Easy Beauty Treatments for Smart Investors.
by Natalie
Pace.
Are You Bikini
Fit For Summer? Would You Be Ashamed If Someone Saw Your Nest
Egg Naked? Have you even looked at your portfolio lately? Ignoring
it is silly. You might be in better shape than you realize, and
if you aren't, read on for 8 Easy Tips to make your money house
more attractive now!
The mid-May
sell-off in the stock markets, where 5-8% of the gains since January
were taken back, is a wake-up call that it is summer, and we are
headed into the seasonal time of lackluster returns (often referred
to as the summer doldrums), as we inch toward the historically
worst performing month of the year (September) and the spookiest
month (October). October has seen Black Monday 1987 and Black
Thursday 1929, two of the most dreaded days in stock market history.
So, what's
an investor to do? Panic? Heed calls of doomsday and horror? Before
you build the ark, note that real gross domestic product increased
in the first quarter of 2006 at a VERY healthy 5.3%, compared
to just 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2005. According to the Bureau
of Economic Analysis press release on 5.29.06, "Positive
contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports,
equipment and software, and federal government spending"
account for the increase. Exports netted out higher than imports,
increasing 14.7 percent over 12.8 percent, respectively in the
first quarter. Needless to say reversing the trade imbalance is
a trend worth noting and continuing, and, based on the strength
of the first quarter numbers, it's not surprising that the mid-month
sell-off is reversing itself.
But that kind
of drop in the markets sure shakes a person out of complacency.
And yes, if it can happen once, it can happen again, and the drop
can be quick and painful, like it was in October of 1987, or it
can be slow and miserable, like it was from the steady losses
incurred from the NASDAQ highs of March 2000 to the suicidal lows
of October in 2002. Just like the Caribbean Islands, you've got
a lot great days to enjoy bikini weather in the markets, which
earned double the returns of real estate over the past 25 years,
but you've got to be prepared to weather the storm of the occasional
hurricane!

You wouldn't
toss all of your belongings into the path of the hurricane, and
you shouldn't be dumping all of your stocks in every downturn.
It's a sure way to lose.
Just like
you do when you're trying to slim down for that bikini, you want
to trim any excess fat out of your portfolio NOW, reinforce the
foundation of your portfolio and make sure that you're not drinking
too much of the punch on hot stocks or the Dow hitting its high
of 11,700. How do you beautify your 401 (k)? I've outlined 8 tips
below.
- Invest
in knowledge. Start educating yourself now. Be sure
to take the Investor Quiz in this month's NataliePace.com ezine, to
see how well informed you really are. Look over all the links
in the Investor Edu section. Always read the last article by
me in each NataliePace.com ezine, where I write the latest news on
a number of selected stocks that we follow.
- Cash
is King. Make sure that a percentage that is equal to
your age is completely SAFE, and you might consider adding more
than that, to ensure that you can buy in the event of a downturn.
Safe means that it is NOT invested in stocks or real estate
(both of which can go down. See below for stats). CDs, money
markets and T-Bills are virtually risk free and are currently
producing bond-like returns. If the investment is backed by
the FDIC or by the U.S. government (like government issued bonds),
that is about as secure as you can get.
- Don't
bet the farm. Invest according to your risk tolerance.
If you want to try for a higher return, take a small percentage
(for the timid, pros suggest not more than 5%) of your nest
egg to try your hand on selecting individual stocks. The risk
here increases GREATLY, but so does the reward and return. If
you choose to invest on your own, find a stock guru with excellent
returns to use as your mentor. The price of a great newsletter
is well worth it. (And NataliePace.com has one of the best reputations
for featuring great companies at an opportune buying time.)
- Live.
Love. Invest? YES!! Put your money where your heart
is. You are more likely to make money on something that you
understand and adore than on something that you have no clue
about and/or abhor! While you are enRICHing your wallet, you
are also enRICHing the world and are more happy and less stressed
out with the things that you are supporting. Win/Win/Win.
- Are
Mutual Funds Obsolete? The Exchange Traded Funds are
currently traded on the AMEX Composite, which has seen 120%
gains since January 2000, compared to a flat Dow Jones Industrial
Average, -12% in the S&P 500 and -42% in the NASDAQ. Mutual
funds cost more than index funds or ETFs in fees (though this
is not obvious, except in the fine print). Even if the fund
has a great reputation for yielding returns, the markets are
heading out of mutual funds and over to ETFs, which means that
you might suffer from investor exodus, even if the mutual fund
manager is exceptionally talented. Also, most mutual funds have
holdings that people wouldn't be caught dead supporting, like
Altria, which is the new, improved name of the Phillip Morris
tobacco company (which also owns Kraft Foods). FYI: For those
of you thinking to just go long on the AMEX Composite Index,
it is being reported that Barclays is moving its ETF portfolio
over to the New York Stock Exchange. We'll report more on this
as it develops.
- ETFs
and Index Funds. A good way to diversify if you're new
to the game. The online
discount brokerages have a lot of tools to help
you determine the ETF that is right for you.
- Stocks
Outperform Real Estate: The S&P 500 has rewarded
investors 10.5% annually over the past 37 years, with small
cap stocks ringing up 12.5% returns (source: Ibbotson Associates,
a Morningstar company). The National Association of Realtors
reports that the median price of existing single-family homes
in the US increased only 6.7% annually over the same period.
Gold weighed in slightly ahead of real estate, at 7%. (Refer
to the chart above.) Do the math. Newspaper headlines are always
based on sensationalism. Stocks were sensational in 1999-2000.
You could have thrown a dart at a wall and come up with a winner.
Real estate has been a rocket over the last five years, and
still the returns over a longer period of time are about half
that of stocks. You want to own a home for many reasons. You
don't want to own a money pit, and you certainly don't want
to buy high right now just because it is de rigueur.
- The
Blue Chips or AMEX? There is a big difference between
the way that the different indices behave, and though everyone
was riding the Dow near its all-time high in early May, by mid-May
it was clear that running with the bulls can be a goring and
galling proposition, if you don't jump out of the way in time.
In 2000-2002, it was NASDAQ that suffered the strongest correction
(losing up to 70%) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was
much more resilient (shaving off a mere 30% at the October low),
but this time the story may be reversed. In 2006, the Internet
is earning profits and the legacy corporations of the mature
Dow Jones Industrial Average are carrying around more debt and
pension responsibilities than the average investor may be aware
of. Don't try to get too fancy, but do educate yourself and
make sure that your blue chips are healthy and your microchip
stocks are sound.
More
Info on Select Indices:
With
the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovering near its six-year high,
there are certainly more blue chips to sell than there are to
buy. On the other hand, the Amex Composite Index, which has shot
up 120% since January 2000, and ETFs (which are concentrated in
the AMEX Composite) are still gaining in popularity. Joining the
movement of investors that are transferring from mutual funds
into ETFs might be a good call, and is an option you should consider.
In addition to the momentum move from mutual funds into index
and exchange-traded funds, you are also benefiting from lower
management costs and brokerage fees.
For those
of you who are thinking to just go long on the Amex Composite
Index, note that past performance is no guarantee of future gains!
The ETFs may be moving to the NYSE (as noted above).
More
Info on ETFs
If
you want to invest in ETFs on your own, online
discount brokerages make it easy to gather important
asset allocation and diversification information and to invest.
If your nest egg is managed, your certified financial advisor
should be able to direct you. If your broker is discouraging you
from making the move from mutual funds to ETFs, find out how much
s/he receives in commissions from the mutual funds s/he is selling
you, in addition to asking other pertinent questions about why
the mutual fund is a better choice and which stocks are held in
the fund. At the end of the day, it is your portfolio and your
decision. Believe it or not, in investing, the best choice is
often the one you believe is the best choice because most
money is lost when investors panic and sell low to end the agony,
not when on investments go belly-up. If you believe you've made
a reasonable choice, you are more apt to believe that those investments
will recover from a downturn and operate with a level head.
Coach
Yourself to Success
by Joe Moglia, the CEO of TD Ameritrade, is one of the best investing
101 game plans I've read for those who are new to the terms ETF,
mutual fund, bond, T-bill, etc. You can buy it by clicking over
to Amazon through the link.
More
Info on Risk Tolerance
As
Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate in Economics, explained last month
at the Milken
Global Economic Conference, "The intensity of people's
reaction to losses is twice as much as their reaction to gains."
Since most people have such an accelerated emotional reaction
to losses, the professional who makes you feel safe, and
provides you the long shot, is the broker/certified financial
planner who is designing and implementing a plan that has a greater
likelihood of working. Properly allocating and protecting the
bulk of your portfolio, while taking a small percentage for potentially
greater gain could be that magic formula of making you feel safe,
while at the same time providing you with the potential for great
gain. As Kahneman puts it, you want to inoculate yourself so that
"when the inevitable occurs, downturns, [you] do not sell
low."
Bikini
Fit and Trim
To
make sure that you are fiscally fit and beautiful this summer,
take a look at the curves in your portfolio. Because there is
a lot of risk in the markets (high valuation in the Dow, terrorism,
rising interest rates, inflation, stronger yields in bonds, moderated
GDP growth projections), you should make sure that you have your
assets allocated properly NOW. You don't want to have all
your clothes on the clothesline during a hurricane, and you don't
want your entire portfolio banking on clear skies in the stock
market or on real estate. All asset classes have their
highs and their pullbacks, including today's darling, real estate.
Usually when one is tanking, the other is soaring. The key is
patience, pruning, information, a good fundamental plan and the
wonderful adage: buy low, sell high.
Any certified
financial planner worth his/her snuff should be able to gauge
your risk tolerance and help you achieve your long-term goals
by spreading out your assets among various types of investments.
Some discount
brokerages do a great job of outlining asset allocation
strategies for do-it-yourselfers.
So, what to
do with your stocks, real estate and bonds during the summer doldrums?
Just make sure you lighten up on your exposure and that your money
is working for you, while you jump into that bikini and enjoy
the warm waves. If you've developed a solid, long-term plan, you'll
be in far better spirits to enjoy your well-deserved vacation!
|
|
How
to be a Better Investor?
Experts
say start by suspending your emotions.
by David
R. Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter and Buyback
Premium Portfolio
 |
David
R. Fried,
Editor and Publisher, The Buyback Letter |
Many
longtime subscribers will have heard me talk before about how
I believe emotions often trip up many investors and prevent them
from achieving their wealth-building goals.
Basically,
most of us are a mess when it comes to managing our emotions as
they relate to our investments. We procrastinate. We buy what
is popular (cocktail party chatter stocks). We watch too much
CNBC and sway in the wind each time another pundit speaks. We
are so overloaded with facts that we suffer from analysis paralysis.
We listen to bad advice. We ignore our own guidelines for investing,
and we fear losses and think we can outguess the market.
Yikes! It's
a wonder any of us ever make any money.
Well, now
science actually backs me up that emotions are an investor's worst
enemy.
Let me tell
you about a fascinating scientific experiment that sheds light
on how we all would be better off if we could switch off our own
emotions, or at least ignore them when we sense them rearing up.
(I'll try to explain the scientific experiment as simply as possible
while avoiding medical jargon. Sources are listed at the bottom
of this column.*)
Researchers
set up a game that would mimic real-life investment decisions
in all their uncertainty, reward and punishment. In it, three
groups of people were each given $20 in $1 bills. They were asked
to make successive rounds of investment decisions and in each
round they had to decide whether to invest $1 or not invest. If
they didn't invest, they kept the $1; if they did invest, they
gave the $1 to the investigator, who would toss a coin. If heads
- a 50% chance - the person would lose the $1; if tails, then
$2.50 would be added to the participant's account. And so on,
round by round.
The game was
set up such that it would behoove participants to invest in all
the rounds because the expected value on each round is higher
if one invests ($1.50) than if one doesn't ($1). Stated another
way, if you lost, the penalty was $1. If you won, the prize was
$1.50. So if you didn't play, you still had $20. If you played
every round, you would end up with $25 (assuming an equal number
of heads and tails). You don't even have to be a savvy investor
to figure out what makes sense.
The composition
of the three test groups was evenly matched, except for one key
element - the emotional component. The mean age of participants
was 51-53 years in all the groups, they had about 14 years of
education on average, and all had normal IQ and intellect. The
first group was called a "normal" group, much like you
and I. They volunteered for the experiment after being recruited
through a local newspaper advertisement. The second group was
the "target" group, which had an injury in the brain
region related to emotion; simply put, they cannot process emotions
properly. The third group was called the "control" group,
and had an injury in the brain not related to processing emotion
(perhaps due to stroke or illness). The participants in both the
control and target groups (those with brain injuries), were all
drawn from a patient registry at the University of Iowa and their
injuries were stable and well understood. They were all able to
consent to be a part of the research.
How did they
do? When confronted with a few times the coin came up tails, the
normal and control patients (those whose emotions were intact)
were likely to stop playing rather than stay in the game and let
the odds work in their favor. They retreated to a conservative
strategy, suggesting they were more affected by the outcomes of
decisions they had made in previous rounds. You might say these
people projected past results into the future, and thus they locked
in their losses.
The target
group - those players whose emotional circuitry was haywire -
made better, more efficient, more advantageous decisions and earned
more money from their investments than the normal and control
players. Their behavior was more rational because it properly
accounted for likely future returns; they didn't factor in fear
or anxiety. In other words, their weaker emotional function allowed
them to be more rational investors.
OK, so what
do we do with this interesting information?
Since most
of us aren't suffering from a brain injury that divorces our emotions,
let's delve deeper into what made the normal and control groups
less successful investors in this game so we might learn from
their mistakes.
As background,
understand that there is a condition known as "myopic loss
aversion" that apparently was at play here. Researchers who
discovered that found that even relatively mild negative emotions
can play a counterproductive role in making investment decisions.
They explain it this way, using gambling terms: For example, when
a gamble that involves some possible loss is presented, most people
display extreme levels of risk aversion toward the gamble. The
example given is that most people will not voluntarily accept
a 50-50 chance to gain $200 or lose $150, despite the gamble's
high-expected return. This same explanation - myopic loss aversion
- has been suggested as an explanation for why many people prefer
to invest in bonds, even though stocks have historically earned
a much higher rate of return.
The experiment
about emotions in investing explains why, since myopic loss aversion
has an emotional basis, a problem or dysfunction in the emotional
system can lead to better investment decisions. The elimination
of emotion in cases in which risk-taking is rewarded, such as
the stock market, is a great advantage.
All three
groups in the study started out the same, but only the target
group (emotionally disconnected) kept investing. The normal and
control groups (whose emotions were intact), became more conservative,
investing in fewer rounds as the game progressed, in spite of
the odds being in their favor. Their decisions were affected by
the outcome on preceding rounds. In fact, both the normal and
control groups were more likely to withdraw whether they lost
on the previous round or they won. This differed greatly from
the target players, who invested equally often whether they won
or lost.
Our take-home
message from delving into the scientific literature that backs
up our beliefs is this:
- First,
pat yourself on the back for staying in the stock market,
because you've overcome the initial hurdle.
- Second,
congratulate yourself for remaining disciplined in your approach.
The markets have been volatile lately, and it's no exaggeration
to say it has been a tough investing year. In fact, at its
best all year, the market has only been up a few percent.
As I write this, stocks have tumbled, the Dow, S&P 500
and NASDAQ have all been very volatile recently - rallying
and then falling 5-8% in just a few days.
- Third,
understand that while researchers may use gambling analogies
to explain myopic loss aversion, we are not gamblers. We believe
that a disciplined, measured, researched and reasoned approach
to investing in the stock market is the best and most prudent
way to prepare for the future.
Now, after
you are done congratulating yourself for hanging tough in a tough
year, then rip a page from the playbook of the emotion-challenged
target group in this study. Remember that they made better, more
profit-maximizing decisions. Accept that you're human and your
emotions are likely to get in your way while you invest, whether
in difficult times like these, or in boom times. So especially
this year, we must keep reminding ourselves to keep a level head
in the midst of market turmoil.
Investing
is one of those circumstances in which a naturally occurring emotional
response needs to be tamped down and controlled to make way for
a more deliberate and wiser decision. The researchers call this
negative emotional effect the "dark side" of emotions
- when moods and emotions can play a disruptive role in decision-making.
For the most
effective and successful investing, control your emotions; do
not let them control you, or you'll end up on the losing side
of the equation.
Whatever you
do, avoid the dark side. And may the Force be with you.
*The research,
"Investment Behavior and the Negative Side of Emotion,"
was published in the June 2005 issue of Psychological Science,
authored by Baba Shiva, an associate professor of marketing in
the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He studies
the role of emotion in decision-making, the neuro-physiological
bases of emotions, and non-conscious mental processes.
David Fried
is the editor and publisher of The Buyback Letter, the only investment
newsletter devoted to finding opportunities among companies
that repurchase their own stock. His asset management firm
- Fried Asset Management, Inc. - offers separate investor
advisory and money management services which use the "Buyback
Strategy" principles. Fried Asset Management's
managed accounts have gained 146.98% vs. a 28.67% gain for the
S&P 500 for the 8-years ending 12/31/05*. All
of his NEWSLETTER portfolios are beating the S&P 500
since inception, and the prestigious Hulbert Financial Digest
consistently ranks The Buyback Letter among the top five
for risk-adjusted returns among stock-picking newsletters.
|
|
Answers
to the INVESTOR QUIZ.
Are
you a Bull, a Bear, an Owl or a Dodo When It Comes to Investing.
Take our quiz and find out!
Points:
Give yourself an Owl point for the right answer. Give
yourself a Dodo point for the wrong answer. Assign
Additional points for bull or bear as outlined beneath each answer.
- Asset
Allocation.
-
For "Cash is king," give yourself a bear point.
- For
"Equity diversification" give yourself a bull point.
- Stocks
The
stock market has rewarded investors 12.3% annually over the
past 25 years (source: Hulbert's Financial Digest), posting
higher gains on average than real estate or bonds. The National
Association of Realtors reports that the median price of existing
single-family homes in the US increased 5.18% annually over
the same period. That means stocks paid two to one over real
estate. In 1980, 25 years ago, gold was peaking at over $800
per ounce, which means that gold, trading at $650.90 on 5.30.06,
has lost value over the last 25 years. Bonds have returned 5.3
- 5.9% over the last 80 years.

- For
"Bonds, real estate and gold," give yourself a bear
point.
- For
"Stocks" give yourself a bull point.
-
One Year Before the Presidential Election (which gives
the incumbent party a stronger economic platform on which
to run)
- Yahoo.com
|
Top
Internet Media Companies
|
Total
Unique Visitors (000)
|
Total
Pages Viewed (MM)
|
Average
Minutes per Visitor
|
|
|
Jan-06
|
Jan-06
|
Jan-06
|
|
Total
Internet : Total Audience
|
170,797
|
447,296
|
1,558.2
|
|
YAHOO.COM
|
122,188
|
33,368
|
216.5
|
|
GOOGLE.COM
|
91,092
|
7,237
|
32.2
|
|
MSN.COM
|
90,965
|
15,791
|
177.9
|
|
AOL.COM
|
73,657
|
7,439
|
60.4
|
|
MYSPACE.COM
|
35,579
|
23,125
|
145.2
|
Source:
comScore Media Metrix
- For
"Google" and "MySpace" give yourself a
bull point.
- Citigroup.
Market
Caps (5.19.06):
Citigroup:
246.4 Bil
Microsoft:
242 Bil
Cisco:
128.4 Bil
Berkshire
Hathaway: 116.1 Bil (Class A) + 29.53 Bil (Class B)
Altria
Group (Philip Morris): 148.3 Bil
- For
Berkshire Hathaway, give yourself a bear point.
- For
Cisco, give yourself a bull point.
- Altria
-
For Berkshire Hathaway, give yourself a bear point.
- For
Cisco, give yourself a bull point.
- Cigarettes.
- For
any wrong answer, give yourself a bull point.
- AMEX
Composite Index
source:
Money Central
- For S&P
500 & DJIA, give yourself a bear point.
- For
NASDAQ, give yourself a bull point.
- Utilities
Industry
group scorecard for 1Q 2006 that measures price change only
and does not include dividends:
|
|
Symbol
|
12/30/05
|
03/31/06
|
% Change
|
|
Dow Industrials
|
DJIA
|
10,717.50
|
11,109.32
|
3.66%
|
|
Nasdaq Composite
|
COMP
|
2,205.30
|
2,339.80
|
6.10%
|
|
S&P 500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,248.29
|
1,294.83
|
3.73%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alternative Energy
|
ECO
|
172.97
|
227.14
|
31.32%
|
|
Energy
|
IXE
|
504.21
|
545.56
|
8.20%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
2,438.10
|
2,625.20
|
7.67%
|
|
Capital Goods
|
IXI
|
315.17
|
338.73
|
7.48%
|
|
Basic Industries
|
IXB
|
312.05
|
333.65
|
6.92%
|
|
Commercial Services
|
.SICSS
|
183.95
|
194.63
|
5.81%
|
|
Technology
|
IXT
|
211.16
|
222.96
|
5.59%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
680.91
|
712.97
|
4.71%
|
|
Health Care
|
DRG
|
319.99
|
329.31
|
2.91%
|
|
Consumer Services
|
IXY
|
327.54
|
336.35
|
2.69%
|
|
Financials
|
IXM
|
316.06
|
324.25
|
2.59%
|
|
Consumer Staples
|
IXR
|
233.16
|
236.18
|
1.30%
|
|
Utilities
|
IXU
|
318.97
|
312.44
|
-2.05%
|
Source:
Thomson One Financial
- For
Consumer Staples, transportation, basic industries and capital
goods, give yourself a bull point.
- For
biotech, tech, alternative energy, energy and financials give
yourself a bear point.
- Amex
Composite
- For
S&P 500 & DJIA, give yourself a bear point.
- For
NASDAQ, give yourself a bull point.
In addition,
here's the equity market segment scorecard for the first quarter
of 2006.
|
|
Symbol
|
12/30/05
|
03/31/06
|
% Change
|
|
REITs
|
VNQ
|
59.56
|
67.92
|
14.04%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
IJS
|
63.88
|
72.59
|
13.63%
|
|
Microcap
|
IWC
|
51.15
|
58.10
|
13.59%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
IJR
|
57.80
|
65.00
|
12.46%
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
IJT
|
116.07
|
128.70
|
10.88%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
IJJ
|
70.49
|
76.69
|
8.80%
|
|
MidCap
|
IJH
|
73.80
|
79.23
|
7.36%
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
IJK
|
75.62
|
80.49
|
6.44%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
IVE
|
65.05
|
68.85
|
5.84%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
IVV
|
124.67
|
130.13
|
4.38%
|
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
IVW
|
59.28
|
61.09
|
3.05%
|
Source:
Thompson One Financial
Now do the
math! Are you a wise old owl or do you need to learn more about
investing? Do you play it safe or are you anticipating great gains?
By understanding your tendencies and separating truth from fiction,
you can start up the golden brick road to wisdom, where even more
riches await.
Tune in next
month for a real estate investor quiz, designed by the prosÉ
|
|
National
Savings Crisis or Media-Generated Hysteria?
Either
Way, It's Time to Start Saving for a Rainy Day.
by Natalie
Pace.
8 Tips
for Sailing Through Rising Interest Rates, Inflation and Other
Storms on the Horizon. Including our monthly Hot News on Cool
Stocks Report.
21 BIG
WINNERS, even given the mid-May sell off!, which keeps the companies
featured in NataliePace.com at the top in Annualized Returns (according
to TipsTraders.com).
 |
Natalie
Pace,
NataliePace.com CEO and founder |
This
is a reprint of the NataliePace.com mid-May report (which is available
online to subscribers) with some important updates and additions.
There are new stats and info in the Hot News charts below, a very
interesting new section on Companies in the News and a new online
chat opportunity for entrepreneurs (which is free to NataliePace.com
subscribers).
Last month,
the media picked up on an old story, the fact that Americans are
not depositing money into savings accounts, and hyped it as the
new crisis (alongside bird flu and nuclear weapons in Iran), so
naturally, NataliePace.com got a few hysterical calls and emails. The
personal savings rate has been a negative number since last fall
(when NataliePace.com first reported on the trend), hovering at a negative
0.3 percent in March 2006, but recently the media decided to represent
that as proof that America is doomed to drown in its own debts.
With nobody saving and inflation and interest rates on the rise,
is the U.S. economy heating up for a major economic meltdown?
Is it time to run for the hills and hide your cash under a mattress?
As in most
crises, the voice of reason is hard to hear above the din of fear,
so I'm going to do the equivalent of yelling for at least a few
sentences to catch your attention. Over the last few years, when
interest rates were at 40 year lows, AMERICANS WERE NOT STUPID
ENOUGH TO DEPOSIT MONEY INTO A SAVINGS ACCOUNT THAT WAS PAYING
2% OR LESS, but that doesn't mean that they don't have money socked
away elsewhere. In fact, the nation's homeownership rate in 2005
was a record-breaking 69%, with most Americans benefiting from
a healthy home price appreciation (source: National Association
of Realtors).
Home equity
is not included in the savings rate, and neither are retirement
plans, both of which are where the bulk of Americans assets are
being housed today. Additionally, in April 2006, unemployment
was down to 4.7%, which means that any American who wants to have
a job probably is working. GDP is still growing. Real GDP increased
at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2006,
according to advance estimates provided by the Bureau of Economic
Activity, and labor productivity is still at an all-time high.
So, the savings crisis is just another fairy tale, a manipulation
of the facts to keep you glued to your television or amped up
to vote for this or that politician, alongside other hysteria-inducing
headlines including how immigration and outsourcing are stealing
American jobs. (Having less than 5% unemployment is generally
considered as having a nation fully employed.) Meanwhile, serious
bipartisan concerns, like the pension care crisis in the U.S.,
are still flying under the radar of most reporters. (Tune into
the June NataliePace.com ezine for a major report on the pension plan
crisis in the U.S., in our report from the 2006 Milken Global
Economic Conference.)
While it is
true that interest rates, national debt AND inflation are on the
rise and that the U.S. Pension Guaranty Benefit Plan is sliding
deeper into the red abyss, home owners in particular and most
Americans in general do have more assets than a negative savings
number would indicate, and the future is not doomed, provided
there isn't a panic run for gold, a run on the banks, a rush of
all U.S. intelligent life to Estonia or a fallout in American
productivity. Smart Americans, who now have control over their
investments, their work, their commute and their retirement plans,
can make a few changes to their life style, can continue to work
hard and are then in a great position to find solutions to the
challenges that lie before us. After all, we still have great
universities, attract the brightest talent on the globe and lead
the world in innovations. If we can put a man on the moon, surely
we can figure out how to power our lives by sunlight, wind and
other renewable resources, and high oil prices mean that talented
individuals are given the dough to solve the problems. (Note the
run-up in market capitalization of just about ANY alternative
energy company.)
Fear cycles
into chaos; confidence creates miracles. How do smart people benefit
from your hysteria? They do know the facts behind the headlines,
and prepare for the coming trends, instead of dropping their head
into the sand and getting whipped around by sandstorms. Preparedness
means that when others panic or hide or sell low, you are in a
position to profit.
So, how do
you prepare to profit and flourish during a period of rising interest
rates and inflation (instead of spinning out of control and selling
all of your hard-earned gains low)?
- Preserve
your nest egg. Meet with a trusted certified financial
planner now. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average and real
estate near all-time highs, it is time to diversify. Consider
taking some profits off the table. As Sally Krawcheck, the CFO
of Citigroup, says, "What your financial services provider
should be doing is not to get you in and out of segments of
the market on a rapid-fire basis, but to give you a diversified
portfolio. When the stock market goes up, you take some profits
out. When fixed income goes up, tilt it that way." There
is some tilting right now with real estate and the DJIA riding
at all time highs. To review some more words of wisdom from
Ms. Krawcheck, check out Citigroup
Wows L.A. Women.
- Save
for a Rainy Day: Money markets and CDs are earning bond-like
returns with very low risk (no risk if they are FDIC-insured).
Liquidity means your money is protected AND available for buying
opportunities, in the event of a downturn in stocks or real
estate. Additionally, liquid assets may become necessary in
a period of rising interest rates and inflation. Investors who
bought NASDAQ on October 2001, after 9.11, saw 40% gains in
just three months, by January 2002. Investors who bought at
the October 2002 low, are today enjoying 90% gains in NASDAQ,
140% gains in the AMEX Composite, 40% gains in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and 50% gains in the S&P 500. You can
have your index funds or basket of diversified individual stocks
pre-selected so that you (or your broker) are ready to buy in
the event of a shock in the markets. Be patient.
- Reduce
costs now to offset the rising monthly costs of inflation
and interest rates. High oil, gas and energy are hard on your
wallet, but good for our world because they provide a big incentive
to our universities and scholars to find a better solution to
being oil-dependent. As a consumer, you need to find ways now
to become more gas efficient, more energy efficient and to live
with renewable energy products. Find a way to carpool, work
from home, reduce your commute, use solar energy to heat your
water, etc. Check out the June issue of NataliePace.com for tips on
how.
- Increase
your income now. It is a tight labor market, which is
a great time to ask for that raise or to check out opportunities
for a promotion. If you think you're ready for more responsibility,
more hours or anything that will put more money in your pocket,
go for it!
- Lock
in a fixed home loan at the lowest possible interest
rate. Shop around.
- Pay
off your credit card debt and/or find a low, fixed rate
that is guaranteed for a sustained period of time until you
can pay off the debt. Credit card companies are going hog wild
with interest rates these days, and if interest rates continue
to rise, the companies will only get more aggressive. Penalties
and high interest rates can literally kill your budget in the
future if you start falling behind on payments.
- Reduce
your exposure now to any investment in any corporation
that has a large pension plan obligation. Pension obligations
are not listed in the company's debt or financial statements,
but there is a report that was issued by Standard and Poor's
last year which outlines the top 300 companies that are in the
red on their pension benefit obligations. Standard and Poor's
lists over 31 companies that owe over a billion dollars to their
pension benefit plans, with the largest debt being owed by Ford
Motor Company. Standard & Poor's, Credit Suisse First Boston
and many pension specialists project that there are many legacy
corporations that owe more to their pension plans than they
currently have on tap in their market capitalization. Click
to review data from the 2004 report on Pensions.
Companies
in the News (That Are Not on the Hot News List)
6
companies have consistently received GovernanceMetrics
International's highest corporate governance rating of
10.0 in either five out of six, or six out of seven occasions
(including the latest ratings), and thus represent companies with
high governance standards and little governance risk. These
companies are: BCE (Canada), Nexen (Canada), Colgate-Palmolive
(US), Pepsico (US), Wisconsin Energy (US) and Westpac Bank (Australia).
GMI reports that, in contrast to the companies which
scored the lowest in corporate governance - Apollo Group, The
Australian Wheat Board, Audiovox, Biovail and Livedoor --
the composite total shareholder return over the last three years
of the best 6 companies (through February 25) was 23.75%. (source:
GovernanceMetrics International)
Fannie
Mae. According to James Lockhart, Ofheo Acting Director, "They
committed fraud. Fannie Mae had a culture of arrogance. There
were manipulating earnings. They didn't follow generally accepted
accounting standardsÉ We are going to watch them closely."
FYI: NataliePace.com first began reporting on Fannie's problems in 2003,
when the share price was still strong and investment advisors
believed that the Federal government would take a hands-off approach
to the policies that had resulted in one of the biggest debt/equity
ratios, at 39 then (at 23.41 now), on the street. With that kind
of risk going on, it probably pays to keep your hands off Fannie,
no matter how much she has cleaned up her sheets!
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Higher
Interest Rates. The Federal Open Market Committee decided
on 5.10.06 to raise its target for the federal funds rate by
25 basis points to 5 percent, for the 16th consecutive
rate hike, and believes that further tightening may be needed,
depending upon the "evolution of the economic outlook."
In our interpretation of "Fed-speak," that is likely
to mean that Bernanke will be inclined to pause with the rate
hikes, in order to be able to examine how the past 16 rate hikes
are impacting the economy. As Bernanke testified before Congress
in April, "At some point in the future the Committee may
decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest
of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the
outlook." The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 28
and 29, 2006. Click to review the FOMC
Press Release
from the May 10th, 2006 meeting.
- Entrepreneurs:
If you are stuck in a financial rut, or if you have too much
month at the end of your money, join us for a chat with Chellie
Campbell, the author of Zero to Zillionaire, in the NataliePace.com
chat room on Wednesday, June 14th, at 8:45 a.m. PST
(11:45 a.m. ET). Through her books and workshops, Chellie
has helped literally thousands of entrepreneurs to attract profits
and jump to the next revenue plateau, while reducing stress
and enjoying life more.
- We'll
look to add Citigroup in September. Waiting to see what the
next Fed meetings and the summer doldrums do to the markets.
Citigroup reports 2Q earnings on July 17th. Rising
interest rates and the current M&A mania are positive for
Citigroup, but interest rate hikes, combined with high oil prices
and the summer doldrums, are tough on the markets.
- 21 BIG
WINNERS, even given the mid-May sell off!, which keeps the companies
featured in NataliePace.com at the top in Annualized Returns (according
to TipsTraders.com).
This hot news article still has the proud honor of featuring
twenty-one companies that have posted positive gains, versus
just seven that have gone south. Of the seven that have gone
south, we were most concerned with Krispy Kreme, but with the
hiring of Kraft Foods veteran Daryl Brewster as president
and chief executive that company seems to be sweetening
up. Turnarounds are difficult to stomach, even the turnaround
of the most popular sweet on the planet. Lawsuits and challenges
remain. There has been upside over the past month for the patient,
however. For RELM Wireless, Sirius Satellite Radio and Yahoo,
we believe the company and the marketplace are ripe for more
gains. If you've already bought in, it may be a rough summer.
If you haven't, check back in September for any Back to School
Stock Sales. Still love Jet Blue as a consumer, but the sector
is in trouble until they figure out how to fly solar-powered
planes. As we head into the summer doldrums, look for some stocks
to trim back on and/or take your profits on, including Martha
Stewart, Sony, Automated Data Processing, ImClone, and LifeCell.
Bottom
Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon
your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio
diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher
risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns.
As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm
on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate
or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission
of providing the news and information you need to make better
choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always
consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling
any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot
Stocks
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. It may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are
risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner
before making any changes to your investment strategy. You'll
note, in the interest of moving from stocks to liquidity, we've
moved a lot of our featured companies from this Buy or Hold opportunity
list to our Hold or Sell opportunity list (below).
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
5.30.06
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Bioteq
Environmental Technologies
VERY
HIGH RISK
Penny
Stock in a great sector.
|
NO
|
TSX:
BQE
(Note
this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)
|
$.80
|
$1.77
|
$2.00
$.66
|
121.%
|
|
Water
treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water
in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Jiangxi Copper
(China), Breakwater Resources, Falconbridge, and Phelps
Dodge. This company is only trading on the Toronto Stock
Exchange's TSX. Go to Bioteq.CA for more info. If your stomach
is lined with steel, this could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk
bet. Annual Shareholder's Meeting is scheduled for May 1,
2006. More details to follow. On 3.29.06, Bioteq signed
a million dollar deal to clean up acid-contaminated water
in CO after the FDA approved the Bioteq technology as the
preferred tech for the site. On 4.12.06, Bioteq issued director,
employee and consultant stock options to purchase up to
800,000 common shares in the capital of the Company at a
price of $1.34 per share expiring April 6, 2011.
|
|
Blockbuster
VERY
HIGH RISK
|
No
|
BBI
|
$3.61
|
$4.63
|
$10.65
$
3.19
|
+28%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." Very high
risk. Distressed acquisition play in a heated up M&A
environment? On 4.10, Citigroup Analyst Tony Wible said
in a client note, "While we believe the in store rental
industry continues to be under pressure from video-on-demand
and online rental services, we see Blockbuster as best positioned
in this environment." He gave BBI a Buy, with a target of
$5.75. On May 14th, Institutional holdings of
BBI increased significantly. Jules Haimovitz was added to
its board on 5.26.06. Haimovitz is currently vice chairman
and managing partner of TV production company Dick Clark
Productions Inc. He was formerly president of MGM Networks
Inc., a unit of Metro Goldwyn Mayer Inc., and served as
president and chief operating officer of TV programming
syndicator King World Productions Inc.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$43.86
|
$50.20
$23.02
|
+29%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries,
in the right, growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
|
Disney
|
No.
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$30.22
|
30.53
22.89
|
+20%
|
|
"This
season, half of the top 10 shows among young adults are
on ABC, including such great series as Lost, Desperate
Housewives, Grey's Anatomy and Extreme Makeover:
Home Edition. And Dancing with the Stars was
another great success for us, captivating audiences of all
ages." Bob Iger. Disney Shareholder Meeting. Disney/Pixar/ABC,
distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation
film company meets the most successful family media company
meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Hmmm.
Sounds like the happiest place on Earth to us. As the largest
individual stockholder, Steve Jobs may be the prime candidate
for the new Chairman of the Board. "I'm thoroughly pleased
with what ABC did and we're going to do more of it as a
company on other sites," Bob Iger said.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
|
$81.85
|
$100.20
$75.58
|
+506%
|
|
Great
Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Biotechnology
is a volatile sector. Popular. #2 biotechnology company.
But very pricey. P/E: 60.60.
|
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$11.25
|
$30.97
|
$41.66
$12.04
|
+175%
|
|
1Q
results will be released on 5.15.06 after markets close.
Share prices are high, but gold is in favor on most analysts'
lists this year. Also, Ollanta Humala is leading the presidential
election in Peru, as of 4.17.06, and GoldCorp investors
will be happier than Newmont Mining investors, if he is
elected. Humala has pledged to renegotiate the contracts
of foreign mining and oil companies in Peru, rewrite the
Constitution to take away powers from the ruling classes,
and legalize farming of coca. That renegotiation would likely
include Yanacocha gold mine, 51% owned by Newmont. Any troubles
in the already tight metals market could send prices even
higher than they currently are. 2006 production at Goldcorp
is expected to reach 2 million ounces at a total cash cost
of less than $150 per ounce, with 2.4 million ounces produced
in 2007. As of Dec. 31, 2006, Goldcorp, including the Nevada
Placer Dome interest, had 25.3 million ounces of Proven
and Probable reserves. On 3.5.06, Goldcorp announced record
net earnings of $286 million ($0.91 per share) for 2005,
an increase of 460% compared with $51 million ($0.27 per
share) in 2004. Record fourth quarter net earnings of $102
million ($0.30 per share), compared to 2004 earnings of
$15 million ($0.08 per share). 2005 gold production increased
to 1,136,300 ounces (2004 - 628,000 ounces) and gold sales
more than tripled to 1,344,600 ounces at a total cash cost
of $22 per ounce (2004- 427,600 ounces at $115 per ounce).
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$376.93
|
$475.11
$172.57
|
+343%
|
|
Google
joined the S&P500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for
your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price. If want
to buy an IT play that is trading at a better value, look
at Yahoo, Sohu and/or some of the other IT media companies
(Disney and News Corp.), all of which are listed here. If
you've quadrupled your money, profit taking and capital
gains are attractive these days. Announced 4Q earnings on
1.31.06. Missed expectations, and investors panicked
(as we'd warned they would). Google shares sank 12 percent
in after-hours trading to $379.00, losing roughly $15.3
billion from their $128 billion market capitalization. Google
dropped as low as $344.20 on 2.13.06. Very volatile. High
price and high P/E of 65.90 (compared to Yahoo's P/E of
24.30). Reports on 3.29.06 say that Google is spending a
billion to buy a 5% stake in AOL, which would allow them
to share AIM, text messaging and video content. 1Q earnings:
revenues of $2.25 billion for the quarter ended March 31,
2006, an increase of 79% compared to the first quarter of
2005 and an increase of 17% compared to the fourth quarter
of 2005. Traffic acquisition costs were $723 million, or
32% of advertising revenues. GAAP net income for the first
quarter was $592 million as compared to $372 million in
the fourth quarter.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
NO
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$9.46
|
12.11
4.40
|
-7%
|
|
In
turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows. Hired Kraft Foods
veteran Daryl Brewster as president and chief executive
in March 2006 (sparking a rally). He was previously the
head of Kraft Inc.'s $6 billion North American snacks and
cereals business. KKD got an extension on its 12.15 deadline
to file financials with the SEC, and filed those reports
on time on 4.28.06, resulting in a rally in the share price.
The next milestone will be providing the fiscal 2006 audited
financial statements to lenders by July 31, 2006.. Don't
forget that Michael Sutton, the former chief accountant
for the SEC, is on KKD's board. Turnarounds like this are
very hard on the stomach. This high-risk investment is only
for the seasoned investor with nerves of steel. Even with
the financials all screwed up, current sales are expected
to come in above the market capitalization of $539.7 Million
at $540 million for fiscal 2006. The company believes they've
got the cash to move forward, with $21 million in cash on
hand and approximately $18 million in unused borrowing capacity.
For fiscal 2005, the Company reported revenues of $708 million,
a loss from continuing operations of $157 million and a
net loss of $198 million. Taken off S&P Midcap 400 effective
10.27.05. Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. has reached a proposed
$4.7 million settlement with workers who claimed they lost
millions of dollars in retirement savings, according to
AP reports on 5.15.06.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
The
Venetian, Sands Macao
(1st
mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)`
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$67.64
|
73.13
29.08
|
+81%
|
|
Major
Growth stock. The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands
Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates
at the Venetian. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is also making deals
with other Macao hotels to manage their casinos and show
rooms, including the Four Seasons, Intercontinental Hotel,
Holiday Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La
Hotel Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai
Strip in Macao. Earnings on 2.14.06 were record 2005 net
revenues of $1.74 billion, an increase of 45.4% over the
prior year. Net income in 2005 was $283.7 million, or $0.80
per diluted share compared to full year net income of $495.2
million, or $1.52 per diluted share in 2004. (2004 included
$417.6 million for sale of the Grand Canal Shopping Mall.)
Looking to secure a $2.5 billion credit facility to develop
"Asia's Las Vegas™" in Macao. YeowÉ Yeehaw!
CEO Sheldon G. Adelson plans to sell 42.8 million shares,
worth approximately $2 billion, after selling $366 million
on 9.13.05, for trust diversification purposes. This will
reduce his personal stake in the company from 75.3 percent
to 63.2 percent, which should be viewed as a positive more
than a negative, although investors typically get spooked
when the founder sells. To put this in perspective another
founder, Bill Gates, sells over a billion each year to fund
the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, without causing a
twitter in the financial markets. Adelson has to sell if
he's positioning the corporation to be more attractive to
institutional investors and for listing on a major index.
1Q 2006 earnings: Quarterly revenue, excluding promotional
allowances, rose 31 percent to $530.4 million from $403.8
million. Casino sales climbed 41 percent to $375.4 million
from $265.8 million. Room revenues increased 5.8 percent
to $91.1 million compared to $86.1 million. The company's
casino revenues in Macau soared 63 percent to $278.2 million
compared to $171 million during the same period last year
due to market demand and capacity increases at The Sands.
|
|
NetGear
RISK:
MEDIUM
Trading
in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$22.22
|
$25.73
$12.96
|
+79%
|
|
The
NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available for pre-order online
for a price of $249.99, with a shipment schedule of late
June. Skype currently has 100 million registered users,
according to the NetGear press release, and the NetGear
phone is the first Skype Wifi phone. Earnings call on 4.26.06
at 5:00 p.m. ET. ON 1.16.06, when NTGR announced a deal
with Skype (owned by eBay) to offer Wi-Fi Internet phones.
An October report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4
million U.S. households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based
broadband phone service by 2010. More information on Netgear's
Skype Wi-Fi phone, including pricing and availability, is
planned for the first quarter of 2006. BusinessWeek named
NTGR as one of its 100 Hot Growth Companies. Judges from
the IT Industry and CRN Readers Rated NETGEAR Best in Service
and Support Among Crowded Networking Category that Included
Companies Worldwide with Both Voice and Data Legacies in
Dec. 2005. 4Q earnings missed expectations by a penny, largely
due to not keeping up with supply. Net income was $8.9 million
versus $8.6 million a year ago, with per-share earnings
flat at 26 cents. According to CEO Patrick Lo, they have
58 new products. CFO Jonathan Mather is leaving on 10.31.06
to pursue other opportunities closer to his home base in
Southern California, according to the company press release.
A replacement is being searched for, and a smooth transition
is anticipated.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Owns
Fox, Myspace and DirecTv.
Dividends
|
No
|
NWS.A
|
$15.88
|
$18.94
|
19.12
13.94
|
+19%
|
|
Featured
article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol.
2, iss. 10. Investors are starting to take notice of this
undervalued juggernaut, especially now that MySpace revenues
are starting to hit the books. Myspace is 2nd
in page views online, behind Yahoo!, which should start
translating into a major jump in ad revenue this year, especially
since MySpace's core demographic is the coveted 16-34 year
olds. MySpace is now a Top 10 Global Internet Brand. Media
is in favor for 2006, according to Smith Barney analysts.
Murdoch has been quoted as saying that MySpace and IGN Entertainment
will be his leading drivers of growth in coming years. Mobizzo,
Fox's mobile network, which pioneered text voting on American
Idol, launched on 2.27.06, and will have micro-pay downloads
of films and TV (including Napoleon Dynamite, the Fox cult
film), games music and more. $58 billion market cap on sales
of $24.5 billion, vs. Google's $119 billion MC on sales
of $6.1 billion. 3Q revenues increased to $6.2 Billion;
Net Income More Than Doubled, to $820 Million. As Rupert
noted, "MySpace expanded to over 70 million registered
users, solidifying its prominence as one of the fastest
growing sites on the Internet. We also launched Mobizzo,
a comprehensive new destination for mobile content, putting
us in the vanguard of this exploding new platform."
Rupert has some talented, innovative leaders under his aegis,
and they are hitting home profits. News Corp. has completed
$2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated
last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0
billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly reinforces
our view that repurchases of News Corporation shares are
among the best uses of our cash in today's environment,"
according to Rupert.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$7.78
|
$9.25
$3.90
|
332%
|
|
It
was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's
products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate
on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's
Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's
share price. Net revenue for the year ending 1.31.06 was
$61.077 million, 61% higher than last year's net revenue
of $37.8 million. Unfortunately, the net loss also doubled,
from $7.2 million last year to $14.75 million in 2006. Investors
still seem optimistic that the Cisco deal will bring profitability
to this six-year old company that has never turned a profit.
A case can be made for pulling out or sticking with it,
depending on your gains! Marc Andreessen is Opsware Inc.'s
largest individual beneficial shareholder with approximately
10.1 million shares beneficially owned. Opsware Inc. will
announce Q1 Results on May 24, 2006.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
|
YES
|
OSIP
|
$63.59
|
$28.96
|
47.65
20.81
|
-54.4%
|
|
DNA
and OSIP will report data on Tarceva at the annual meeting
of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in June, which
could catalyze investor interest. OSIP reported total revenues
of $116.4 million for the first quarter of 2006, an increase
of $97.4 million (or over 500%) compared to revenues of
$19.1 million for the first quarter of 2005, primarily due
to sales of Tarceva and Macugen. Total worldwide net sales
of Tarceva for the first quarter of 2006 were $133 million.
Total U.S. Macugen sales were $51 million for the first
quarter of 2006. The net loss was -$17.9 million, down from
a net loss of -$32.5 million last year. Annual shareholder's
meeting will be on June 14, 2006. On Feb. 9th,
the BOD made the bylaws more shareholder friendly, in the
hopes of attracting back investors. Genetic based "cancer
pill." 1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved
Tarceva for lung cancer last November. Canadian regulators
approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on
9.21. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. FDA approved
Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05. Submitted
new drug application to Japanese FDA on 4.17.06. Partner
of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. Total world-wide net sales
of Tarceva(R) (erlotinib) for 2005 were $309 million. Total
U.S. sales of Macugen(R) (pegaptanib sodium injection) for
2005 were $185 million. Ended 2005 with in excess of $150
million in cash and investments on its balance sheet. OSIP
has had more movement in the executive suite than is desirable
and has never lived up, in the business management department,
to the efficacy of its drug. Hang on for the conference
pop, but keep a close eye out for a profitable exit? The
annual shareholder's meeting will be on June 14, 2006.
|
|
RELM
wireless
10.70
P/E
Micro
Cap
88.73
Million
(high
risk)
|
NO
|
RWC
|
$7.35
|
$6.75
|
11.70
1.90
|
-8%
|
|
RELM
dropped in early May on heavy institutional investor selling.
Had $2.35 million in new orders in January from state government
agencies, for 1Q delivery. $9.9 million in new orders in
10.05 for 4th Q 2005 delivery. According to Feltl
& Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM has just 1% share of
a domestic market worth $1.9 billion (and the global market
is eight times larger), so there is plenty of room for growth.
Coverage on MoneyCentral.msn.com on 1.18.06 means it might
come up on more investors' radars. As of March 31, 2006,
RELM Wireless had cash and cash equivalents of approximately
$6.8 million, an increase of approximately $1.5 million
in one quarter, as compared to approximately $5.3 million
as of December 31, 2005. In addition to providing communications
for national security needs, RELM can actively address communications
needs at hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries,
mines and chemical plants. For the first quarter ended March
31, 2006, sales increased approximately 29.6% to $7.2 million
from $5.5 million for the same quarter last year. For the
first quarter, pre-tax income increased 175% to approximately
$1.4 million from $0.51 million for the same quarter last
year. Net income for the first quarter was approximately
$0.86 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, compared to net
income of $0.33 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, for
the same quarter last year.
|
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
NO
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$221.05
|
253.33
114.90
|
147%
|
|
Ollanta
Humala is a leading presidential contender in Peru's June
4, 2006 presidential run-off, with at least 44% of the vote,
and Rio Tinto investors should be happier than Newmont Mining
investors if Humala wins. Humala has pledged to renegotiate
the contracts of foreign mining and oil companies in Peru,
rewrite the Constitution to take away powers from the ruling
classes, and legalize farming of coca. That renegotiation
would likely include Yanacocha gold mine, 51% owned by Newmont.
(Current polls have Humala trailing ex-President Alan Garcia,
who has 56% of the vote.) Rio Tinto has mines in Brazil,
Chile and Argentina, but not Peru. Most of RTP's mines are
in Australia and the US. Any troubles in the already tight
metals market could send prices even higher than they currently
are. Metals demand is huge; supply is limited; stock price
is high. Analysts say pressure on price should continue
on high demand in China and Asia, as well as the high cost
of mining. Due to the commodities crunch, gear, personnel
and materials are in high demand and at a premium cost,
however Rio Tinto is a very well managed corporation. Finds,
processes and mines minerals: copper, iron, coke (from coal),
aluminum, titanium dioxide and diamonds, and has increased
investment in the Cortez Hills of Nevada. Rio Tinto has
been added to Jim Jubak's 50 Best Stocks in the World List
(eff. 9.05). Great press usually means more buyers. Hang
on, and enjoy the dividends, but don't get sucked into
buying high. As long as Jubak keeps RTP rich in headlines,
expect investors to keep buying high. Bought back $378 million
in shares during 1Q 2006, with $2.5 billion planned for
2006/2007. RTP bought back $972 million in shares in 2005/2006.
|
|
Sirius
|
YES
|
SIRI
|
$6.02
|
$4.52
|
7.98
3.72
|
-25%
|
|
Revenue
tripled to $126 Million 1Q 2006, and Sirius ended the quarter
with 4,077,747 subscribers, the 2nd quarter it
has led XM with new subscriber adds. Loss was -$458.5 million,
or ($0.33) per share, which CEO Mel Karmazin says is attributable
to Non-cash equity charges which do not impact cash flow.
He sees spectacular prospects both near and long term for
Sirius. Sirius signed Stern and aired the Super Bowl; XM
signed Oprah. The head-to-head competition in the U.S. continues,
with Sirius gaining serious ground over XM. Howard Stern
has paid off (big-time) in subscribers and online hits for
Sirius, but not new investors (yet) for Sirius. Sirius announced
on 12.27.05 that it topped 3 million subscribers, and then
surpassed 4 million subs on 3.20.06, and is on track to
finish the year strong with over 6.2 million subscribers,
yet the share price is 46% off of its 52-week high. Investors
bailed on rumors that Stern is returning to free radio,
but Stern says that he's flying high and doing great on
the Sirius deal, which is worth $500 million over the next
5 years, according to Forbes.com. Sirius issued and registered
34 million shares, worth more than $200 million, to Stern
and his agent the week of Jan. 13, 2006. XM Satellite Radio
ended 2005 with 5.9 million subscribers and is projecting
9 million by year's end. XM radio is installed in GM cars;
GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues.
Could impact XM. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard
on SL and CL models for 2007. Nielsen//NetRatings report
said the online traffic to Sirius' grew 188%, to 1.9 million
in March 2006 from 666,000 unique visitors in the year-ago
period. That beats XMSR traffic, which turned in 1.69 million
in unique visitors in March.
|
|
Sohu
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$25.64
|
27.42
14.25
|
+46%
|
|
1 Quarter
2006 Revenues were a record US$31.3 million, Up 32% Year-on-Year.
Net income was US$6.0 million. "China Internet is the most
dynamic industry within the world's fastest-growing major
economy, in our analysis," according to Michael Tieu, a
Brean Murray Carret & Co. analyst. Tieu noted that while
China's online advertising market is a rounding error of
that of the United States, its ad sales are forecast to
grow 40 percent a year to about $3 billion in 2010. See
NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Financial Times ranked
Sohu in Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05.
(6 days after our article.) SOHU was selected as the official
sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing
2008 Olympic Games. See Sohu CEO in an exclusive interview
on the Forbes.com Video Network (with NataliePace.com CEO, Natalie
Pace) by going to the NataliePace.com home page and clicking on
the Forbes.com logo. Sohu Is offering FIFA World Cup 2006
online video content in China to Internet and mobile phone
users (a large segment of the Chinese connected population).
Could be some bumps in the road between now and Beijing
Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it, with
China still growing at over 9% in real GDP per year.
|
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
Vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$26.57
|
$30.15
$12.00
|
+28%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why
Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to
diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the
emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are
stalling in economic growth.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
VERY
HIGH RISK
|
Yes
|
USGL
|
$5.05
|
$8.85
|
$10.30
$.35
|
+75%
|
|
See
the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in
NataliePace.com ezine, vol. 3, iss. 2. This is a gold exploration
company that is being traded off the big boards. If the
choice is between this and the craps table, you might have
better odds here (and more fun if McEwen strikes gold.)
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time. They
are digging to find a new reserve. U.S. Gold closed the
private placement of 16,700,000 subscription receipts at
a price of US$4.50 for aggregate gross proceeds of US$75.15
million on Feb. 22, 2006. As of 4.14.06, there were 50 million
shares outstanding, with a market capitalization of US $409.5
million.
|
|
Verisign,
Vol.
2, iss. 9
|
No
|
VRSN
|
$21.91
|
$22.48
|
$36.09
$17.02
|
+2.6%
|
|
Fourth-quarter
net income rose to $271.4 million, or $1.06 cents per share,
from $114.8 million, or 43 cents per share, a year ago (1.26.05
release), boosted by sale of online payment system in the
amount of $252 million. VeriSign reported total revenue
of $374 million for the first quarter of 2006, and GAAP
net income of $16 million for 1Q 2006 on 4.20.06. Repurchased
9 million shares for value of $215 million in the 3rd
Q. Revenue shortfall in the mobile content area is expected
to improve, according to CEO. Michelle Guthrie, CEO of STAR
Group, Ltd. (a division of News Corp.) was named to the
Board on 12.19.05. Annual analyst day on 5.25.06 at corporate
offices. Purchased m-Qube, a leading mobile channel enabler
that helps companies develop, deliver and bill for mobile
content, applications and messaging services on 3.20.06.
Now has the digital content platform to enable carriers,
Internet portals, media companies and consumer brands to
provide anytime, anywhere, any device delivery of mobile
and broadband services.
|
|
Yahoo
Vol.
2, iss. 10
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$33.84
|
$32.17
|
43.66
29.75
|
-5%
|
|
See
featured article, "News Corp. Enters New Media,"
from vol. 2, iss. 10. Yahoo is the #1 web site, with more
traffic, page views and time online than MSN or Google.
Revenues were $1,567 million for the first quarter of 2006,
a 34 percent increase compared to $1,174 million for the
same period of 2005. Net income was $160 million, compared
to $205 million or $0.14 per diluted share for the same
period of 2005 (4.18.06 earnings report.) Don't be fooled
by headlines that focus only on search. Yahoo is still number
one on the worldwide web, though Google and Microsoft have
the worldwide war chests, with market caps of $129.9 billion
and $281.9 billion respectively, compared to Yahoo's $46.63
billion. So why is Google's market capitalization over twice
the size of Yahoo's? Do investors really think Google is
twice as valuable? Reuters reported on 4.14.06 that Terry
Semel, who took over as CEO of Yahoo five years ago, cashed
in Yahoo shares worth appx. $429 million between 2003 and
2005.
|
|
We'll
look to add Citigroup in September. Waiting to see what
the next Fed meetings and the summer do to the markets.
Citigroup reports 2Q earnings on July 17th. Raising
interest rates and the current M&A mania are positive
for Citigroup, but interest rate hikes, combined with high
oil prices and the summer doldrums, are tough on the markets.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks (that may be in Profit-Taking Range).
Note:
If the news is still favorable on some of these
companies for the long-term, if you have them in your 401K or
long-term portfolio, you might want to keep them there. However,
for the trading portion of your portfolio, in a market of modest
gains but high volatility, many analysts recommend taking profits
in shorter windows. A gain is a gain. We may look to add some
of these great companies to our Hot News list again, if the price
point should become attractive (as we did NetGear in March). The
companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read
the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take
profits, dump losses and/or simply take a long-range view of weathering
the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
5.12.06
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Automatic
Data Processing
|
NO
|
ADP
|
$46.84
|
$45.50
|
48.11
40.37
|
-3%
|
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ" Morgan Stanley analyst David Togut lists
ADP as "overweight." Putting ADP on this list
because the markets are so high and ADP isn't showing legs
as a breakout performer. For traders, ROI might be found
in a more exciting sector/company. For buy and hold, ADP
has some interesting new business ideas, including expanding
their brokerage services, that might be interesting.
|
|
Gevity
Human Resources
|
No
|
GVHR
|
$26.48
|
$27.47
|
$30.19
$15.45
|
+3.7%
|
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ" Roy C. King became President and COO on 12.20.05,
responsible for sales, marketing and biz development. Participated
in the NASDAQ inaugural Small-Cap Investor Conference on
2.7.06 in London. Missed earnings on 2.28.06, but expects
double-digit growth in revenues, client employee count and
earnings in 2006. Increased dividend and plans to buy back
a million shares in 2006. 1st Q call will be
on 5.1.06 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Gevity GVHR will host its Third
Annual Stakeholder Day on Thursday and Friday, May 18 and
19, 2006 in Bradenton, FL, for shareholders, partners, clients,
etc. 1Q earnings included an increase in the total number
of client employees to 136,200, an increase of 8.6% over
125,400 client employees at the end of the first quarter
of 2005. Revenue was up 10% and EPS was up 15%, but missed
earnings by a penny. Putting GVHR on this list because the
markets are so high and the sector isn't showing legs as
a breakout performer. GVHR may be positioning itself as
a growth leader of the group, however.
|
|
ImClone
(makers
of Erbitux)
See
volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article
Trading
near 52 week low.
|
No
|
IMCL
|
$34.48
|
$40.00
|
42.75
29.51
|
+16%
|
|
Forced
to pay the IRS $32 million to settle an employment audit
(3.16.06). Hired investment bank Lazard LLC to shop the
company to suitors and appointed board member Joseph L.
Fischer as interim CEO. Fischer was Former Senior Vice President,
Dial Corporation and Former Group President, Corporate Controller,
Johnson & Johnson. The FDA approved the use of Erbitux
on head and neck cancer on 3.1.06. Results from study
are impressive and the EU commission just received a positive
opinion from their committee, on 2.23.06, to grant approval
in Europe. New panitumumab drug from Amgen is predicted
to gain market share of colorectal cancer in about three
to four years, though it is not expected to gain approval
and product launch before 3Q 2006. Swissmedic, the Swiss
agency for therapeutic products, approved Erbitux for head
and neck cancer on 12.22.05. IMC-11F8, a new drug that blocks
the activation of epidermal growth factor receptor, should
have its clinical trial enrolled by the 2nd half
of this year. IMClone just won the right to market outside
the US and Canada in an arbitration with Merck. Erbitux
is one of the most expensive cancer drugs available. Pressure
on bringing the price of Erbitux more in line with the other
gene-based cancer treatments could be forthcomingÉ
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
Price
12.28.05:
$19.21
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$10.25
|
$27.25
|
$30.68
$7.18
|
+165%
|
|
The
FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue"
on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and
took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q to reflect the recall.
LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing,
however the story on some of the unscreened and untested
tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not
over. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly
received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the
impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. According
to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening
the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations.
The Alloderm product is in high demand, but the potential
fallout of this unfortunate turn of events is more than
most $688 million companies can take. $15.5 million in
insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months,
most recent sales occurred in March '06. Product revenues
for the fourth quarter were $27.0 million, up 69%, compared
to $16.0 million reported for the same period in 2004. Product
revenues for full year 2005 were $93.3 million, up 59%,
compared to $58.8 million in 2004. Alloderm accounted for
$73.8 million of the sales. Net income for 2005 was $12.0
million, or $.36 per diluted share, compared to net income
of $7.2 million, or $.22 per diluted share income in the
prior year.
|
Note: Martha
Stewart Omniliving, Sony and Sunoco were taken off of the Cooling
Off Stocks list effective 5.12.06. MSO was slightly down. Sony
and Sunoco had both had GREAT runs!
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
Other
articles of interest:
Affordable
Health Care.
by Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, Economics.
Real
Estate (REITs) Rules Wall Street, but For How Long? Market
Update. By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors,
LLC.
From
Flipping Burgers to
Owning
Your Own Island.
By Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and founder. How tithing 10% to Your Nest Egg
will make you a millionaire, even if you're only bringing home
$30,000
Investing
is Not Surgery. Brokers are Not Surgeons. Why wise,
informed, personal, daily, healthy choices keep you fiscally fit.
By Natalie Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and founder.
Are
GM, Delphi and Delta the Beginning of Japan-like Stagnation for
the U.S.? Q&A with Nobel
Laureate Economist Gary Becker. By Natalie Pace.
Want
a Raise Now?
It
Could Be a Check Mark Away. by Maya Patel.
The
Eastern European Renaissance.
This
Year's "It" Investment. Article and Stock Report Card by Natalie
Pace.
Leave
Your Job, Not
Your 401(k) By
Maya Patel. Discount Brokerages Make Rollover IRAs Easy.
NASD
Investor Alert: Putting Too Much Stock in Your Company - A
401(k) Problem
What
the Mutual Fund Salesman
Forgot to Mention. by Paul Woods, President &
CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com LLC does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
VISION:
To build a global community of investors through a worldwide website,
seminars, radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442 (toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE:
NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service, and does not operate
or act as one.
|
|