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ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.3 Issue7 July 1st, 2006
Send
comments and suggestions. or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
Quote
of the Month:
"It
will be very difficultÉ for the Company to continue to fund
its obligations on an ongoing basis, or to become profitable,
if the overall industry revenue environment does not continue
to improve and fuel prices remain at historically high levels
for an extended period."
From
the American Airlines Quarterly Report, filed with the Securities
and Exchange Commission, on April 20, 2006.
|
- The
Cervical Cancer Vaccine, Gardasil, Was Approved by the
FDA In June. So Should
You Give It To Your 11-Year Old Daughter? By Jessica
Mkitarian..
- Call
It Your "Buy My Own Island" Plan, Not Your Retirement
Plan. By Natalie Pace.
Including 6 Easy Wealth Tips That Make Life More Enjoyable.
- Should
You Dump Him (Your Broker)?
By Jessica Mkitarian.
- The
Beach Bum's Solution To Immigration: Surf,
Sun and Mango Margaritas in Cabo San Lucas! By Natalie
Pace.
- Your
Biography Becomes Your Biology.
By Gary Kobat. Let Love Relax You!
- Disrupting
the Auto Industry.
By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors,
LLC. Potential winners and losers as the cost of vehicle
ownership increases.
- $72
Oil Will Sink Airlines:
Don't Buy On Hot Headlines and Analyst Upgrades! By
Natalie Pace, NataliePace.com CEO & founder. Article and Airline
Stock Report Card.
- 5.25%
on the Fed Funds is the Same Old Song From Bennie and
the Jets. By Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends.
- NASD
Investor Alert: Think Twice Before Cashing Out Your
401(k).
). If you do, you could lose half of your savings!
- Safe,
Balanced & Happy:
How to Reduce Your Risk of Bankruptcy by 87 Percent
and Keep Your Love Life Healthy! By The Wallet Doctor.
- Rotten
Rejections and Passionate Praise.
By Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
How to Survive a Bad Review from Your Peers.
- Real
Estate Slumped in June, but REITs CEOs Have Been Cashing
Out Since 2005. By
Natalie Pace, NataliePace.com CEO & Founder, and top-ranked
stock picker. Includes our popular Hot News on Cool
Stocks listÉ
- Chat
about the Cervical Cancer Vaccine with Dr. Amy Rosenman
on Friday, July 21st
at 8:45 a.m. PST (11:45 a.m. ET). Check the Calendar
section for Chats, Galas, Conferences and more. Learn
how to maximize your NataliePace.com subscription.
|
|
|
The
Cervical Cancer Vaccine, Gardasil, Was Approved by the FDA In
June.
by Jessica
Mkitarian.
So
Should You Give It To Your 11-Year Old Daughter?
 |
| Jessica
Mkitarian (on left) and her friend, Sima |
6.29.06 Update:
According to Anne Schuchat, Director, National Center for Immunizations
and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, Gardasil has been recommended to
become a routine immunization for girls as young as nine and up
to age 26, by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
(ACIP). ÒThe vaccine, for 11 to 12 year-olds and women up to age
26, was considered effective on all three fronts - efficacy, safety
and cost,Ó according to Ms. Schuchat. Merck has an ample supply
of Gardasil, and the vaccine is currently being shipped to pediatricians.
The
Problem:
¥
Human papillomavirus (HPV) is COMMON and WIDESPREAD: In
2005, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated
that at least 50% of sexually active people catch HPV during their
lifetime. Although males and females can both contract the virus,
in females it can lead to cervical cancer. And in 2005, the CDC
estimated that 20 million people in the United States had the
virus.
¥ Many
people who have HPV show no signs or symptoms, meaning they can
easily pass it on to others without even knowing.
¥ Cervical
cancer is the world's second most common cancer found in women,
and the leading death-causing cancer found in women in most developing
countries.
The
Solution: Gardasil
¥
Gardasil protects against HPV types 6, 11, 16 and 18. Although
there are over 100 types of HPV, these four cause approximately
70% of cervical cancers and 90% of genital warts.
¥ The
Gardasil vaccine is available for women ages 9 to 26 and is given
with 3 shots. After the first vaccination, you must wait 2 months
for the second one, and the last is given 6 months after that.
¥ Gardasil
protects against abnormal and precancerous cervical lesions, vaginal
lesions, vulvar lesions, genital warts, and cervical cancer. HoweverÑthe
vaccine will not protect you from HPV types to which you have
already been exposed. Nor will it treat these diseases.
¥ The
best time to get the vaccination is before you have had any exposure
to HPV. Since HPV is so common, this may imply that girls should
get the vaccination before they become sexually active. (This
of course is controversial.)
¥ Since
the cancer vaccine prevents only 70% of cervical cancers, it is
important to continue to get a pap smear after you are vaccinated.
The
Side Effects
¥
As with any injection, common side effects are pain, swelling,
itching, and redness at the injection site.
¥ Fever.
¥ Difficulty
breathing (bronchospasm) has been reported very rarely.
One Doctor's
Opinion: ÒI don't give any vaccines within the first year or two
that they are out ever. The test was with 6000 people and now
they are going to give it to six million? During the first year
that the vaccine is available, we should approach it carefully.
It's possible that this vaccine is a winner, but I need to watch
what happens when the first million doses are given, to determine
if the benefits outweigh the risks.Ó Dr.
Jay Gordon, M.D., FAAP, IBCLC
The
Benefits:
¥
Today, pap screening tests have cut down on a major percentage
of cervical cancer cases in the United States. Just imagine the
improvement in number of cervical cancer cases with a vaccine
that prevents the disease almost entirely!
FIND OUT
MORE ABOUT THE CERVICAL CANCER VACCINE IN AN EXCLUSIVE ONLINE
CHAT WITH DR. AMY ROSENMAN! Get professional answers to your
questions about the efficacy of the vaccine, the side effects,
the trials upon which the FDA approval were based, and/or any
other pressing issue you need to address.
Gardasil
Chat Details:
Friday,
July 21st, 2006
8:45AM
through 9:30AM.
NataliePace.com
hosts a Women's Health Chat with Dr. Amy Rosenman, discussing
the new cervical cancer vaccine, Gardasil, which was approved
by the FDA and recommended as a routine immunization for girls
ages 11-26 by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices
(ACIP) in June. Pre-teen girls can now be vaccinated against cervical
cancer! Ask your questions and pose your concerns one-on-one with
one of the most respected gynecologists in the U.S. (Subscribers
only.)
For More Information
on the virus that causes cervical cancer and the cervical cancer
vaccine, visit:
http://www.gardasil.com/
(owned by Merck)
http://www.nccc-online.org/
(National Cervical Cancer Coalition)
http://www.maketheconnection.org
(Great cervical cancer information site)
|
|
Call
It Your "Buy My Own Island" Plan, Not Your Retirement
Plan.
by Natalie
Pace.
Including
7 Easy Wealth Tips That Make Life More Enjoyable.
 |
| Photo
Credit: www.mazell.com. Film and Video Production. Advertising
Photography. 562-866-7662 |
Retirement
plan. Who picked a name that sounds about as inviting as a root
canal for your most important budget line item? How about my "win
the lottery" plan or my "launch my dream business"
plan or my "gone fishing" plan? Wouldn't you get a little
more excited opening up one of those?
Did you know
that most businesses are started with the founder's own money?
Did you know that the stock markets, on average, have returned
over 10% annually for the past 37 years, which is higher
than real estate (6.7%), bonds (8%) and even gold (7%)? Yes, there
is a correlation here. I'm not the first entrepreneur to use her
investment gains to launch her dream business and become wealthier
as a result. Your "retirement plan" (Ughhh) is really
your ticket to financial freedom - whether you choose to use your
nest egg to retire in 30 years, to retire early, to put a down
payment on your own home, to get a higher education so that you
earn more, as your health savings plan or even to start a new
business that might bring you wealth untold. Your nest egg is
your golden goose. You've captured her from the giant. Now give
her a better name!

Your employer
has likely given you a 401 (k) and given you complete freedom
as to what the heck you're going to do with it. If the thought
of managing your own retirement makes you suicidal, relax! Rather
than jump in your face and nag you to subscribe to all of the
money magazines, including mine, so that you can do this right,
I'm going to strip the issue naked and tell you the most fundamental
truth about money.
The most important
first step to take is to switch your thinking about money,
which is why I'm encouraging you to toss out the phrase "retirement
plan" and select a sexier name for your personalized life
"Freedom Plan." Why? Because you'll want to check the
bottom line of your Freedom Plan, while, odds are, you're filing
the retirement plan statements directly in the receipt drawer
(without looking at them), that is, if you have even bothered
to sign up for the 401 (k) in the first place.
A study done
by Oppenheimer Funds in 2002 discovered that only 14% of women
have $100,000 or more saved for retirement. Is this you? Another
frightening statistic is that 41% of single moms live at or below
the poverty level, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Many of these moms were once in what they thought was a stable,
happy marriage. (Single mothers are the largest group living in
poverty; only 8% of married couples with kids under 18 are living
in poverty.) So, whether you are married or single, a personal
financial freedom plan is a good idea!
8
VERY SEXY aspects of your 401 (k) Freedom Plan
- It could
fund your dream business (via loan)
- It could
be an instant raise because many employers match at least a
portion of your contribution
- It's easier
than you think
- Over time,
odds are in your favor that you win
- No homeowner's
dues, property taxes or plumbing to fix!
- Works for
you, while you sleep, adding more money to your bottom line!
- Could fund
a down payment on a new home (loans)
- You can
start here and now!
Why am I focusing
so much on the name, rather than on all of the technical analysis
and stock picking and asset allocation and risk tolerance surveys?
Because, as seasoned financial professionals will tell you, most
people don't rise, for long, above the income level that they
were raised with. Athletes make millions early in their career,
but most find themselves broke within five years of leaving their
sport. The same is true of lottery winners who cash out all of
their earnings. Somehow you find a way to fail or succeed based
upon a pre-designed blueprint that you have for yourself, unless
you start changing the way that you think about money, about your
ability to earn and invest (yes you can do this!) and about how
life works in the first place. (Are you always anticipating failure?
Or do you invite in victory? Are you convinced that you can do
this or that you are sure to fail?)
As
you see, so it is
I'm
always amazed at how women who think that all guys cheat always
date guys who cheat. There's a saying, "As you see, so it
is," and with regard to your Freedom Plan, it pays to see
a sexy hunk, who doesn't cheat, who becomes more valuable every
year and is there to support your wildest dreams, should you choose
to turn your passion for ice cream into the next Cold Stone's
Creamery! If you believe that you can do this and know that the
system works in your favor over time (as it does), you are less
likely to make the short-term mistakes that newbie investors fall
prey to time and time again - the most common being: selling low
in a panic.
So now that
I've convinced you to sign up for (and rename) your Freedom Plan,
below are a few tips to help you fill out the form. Sure, you'll
want to know more about investing than the few tips I've outlined
below, but don't let that stop you from signing up and getting
started NOW. The tips below are gleaned from financial professionals
and are designed to make sure that you don't lose everything,
while you're learning. There is always a portion of your Freedom
Plan that is risk-free (and consequently earns lower returns).
Even the lowest return -- savings accounts -- yields more than
not doing anything, and know that if you don't start now, the
only thing you're losing is months of money that could be adding
up to a better life for you.
Freedom
Plan Starting Point:
- Tithe
to Yourself. If you don't have a financial planner
to help you and/or you don't feel like doing the math, take
10% of your gross income and allocate that to your new Freedom
Plan (401 (k), Roth IRA, etc.). If you are employed, be sure
to ask your Human Resources person if the company will match
a portion. That matching money is IN ADDITION TO your tithe.
Imagine that you are saving for a down payment on some real
estate. You can take out a loan on your 401 (k) for all kinds
of things without penalty, provided that you pay it back.
If you are self-employed, your tithe to your Freedom Plan should
be the FIRST check you write each month. (You can set up
your own 401K through any online or brick-and-mortar brokerage.)
No matter how much or how little you make, be sure that you
are putting aside 10%, even if you are living in poverty. Take
a dollar, if that is all that you have, and put it in your Freedom
Fund, and tithe 10% EVERY TIME you have another ten dollars
come in. If you don't have a nest egg and you are nearing retirement,
you obviously have to be more aggressive about tithing and/or
willing to work a lot longer.
- Play
it Safe in the beginning: Take a percentage that is
equal to your age and assign that to the Money Market account.
Money Markets are very low risk, and are no risk at all, if
they are backed by the FDIC. If you are ultra-nervous about
investing, add 5-10% to the money market. 20-year-olds keep
20% safe because they still have another 45 years to get it
right before retirement. 60-year-olds keep 60% or more safe
because they are retiring in 5-10 years and need to be sure
that they've got enough in their Freedom Fund to live the great
life!
- Diversify:
Look at the assets listed above and diversify the remaining
money into different mutual, index and/or Exchange-Traded Funds
that represent each asset class. You can weight into higher-performing
assets, like small cap stocks, and assign less into lower-performing
asset classes, as you desire, but make sure that you are not
over-concentrated in any one sector. Pick at least four different
types of funds to choose from, so that you can watch for yourself
how each one performs for your portfolio.
- Bi-annual
Beauty Treatments: Plan on looking at your Freedom Plan
at least twice a year to make adjustments as needed. For instance,
in October 2002, with savings accounts and money markets returning
less than 2% and the stock markets at a 4-year low, it was a
good time to think about shifting money into the stock market
and out of the money market fund. (Buy low; sell high works
every time.) There's no reason why you can't buy in when you
think the markets are low, and take your profits and re-allocate
when you see that an asset, sector or company has had its run-up.
September, the historically worst-performing month of the year,
and January, the strongest performing month, are good times
to review your freedom plan - January to see where you might
take some profits (or sell), and September for the Back to School
stock sales (for good buys)! Also, note that REITs (Real Estate
Investment Trusts) have been losing value all year and that
REIT CEO Bruce Karatz has described the current environment
as "difficult." As the difficult environment gets
more strained with each interest rate hike, REITs might still
be too high to buy, with more falling seasons in store.
- Enron-proof
your Freedom Plan: invest no more than 10-20% of your
Freedom Plan in your own company stock. (ERISA guidelines force
company-managed pension plans to limit investments in the company
to 10% -- not a bad idea!) The biggest mistake employees at
Enron made wasn't working for Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling,
it was investing (and losing) 57.3% of their nest eggs in the
company! Be smart, even if you are working for the next Google!
Investors can be finicky and whimsical. When Enron fell, it
fell so hard and so fast that most employees didn't have time
to pull their money out.
- Choose
Exchange Traded Funds or Index Funds over Mutual Funds. Check
with your broker and/or brokerage, for a list of funds, or browse
the offerings at the American
Stock Exchange (www.amex.com)
for the most comprehensive listing of ETFs. If your company's
choices are too limited, check into the possibility of rolling
over the company 401 (k) to an online discount brokerage (or
a full-service brokerage) where the choices tend to be more
flexible. There are qualifying events that enable you to rollover
without any penalty at all. Check with your human resources
person and/or call your broker. Click to access a list of online
discount brokerages. These sites have become great
at providing click-happy do-it-yourselfers with everything you
need to succeed. If you'd rather just find a broker, be sure
to read "Brokers
and Lovers: It Pays to Pick a Good One" for
great tips on how to interview for the 2nd most important
man (or woman) in your life.
- BONUS
TIP: Start a Freedom Plan now for your Children!
If you want to start your children off right, have them tithe
10% of their allowance to their own Freedom Plan. Many brokers
are savvy about allowing moms and dads to start a little something
on the side for the kids, and online discount brokerages are
not going to be too far behind in figuring out the appeal of
giving stock gift cards instead of savings bonds or the latest
toy!
You can
do this. You have what it takes. You are starting right here and
right now on a path to greater financial wisdom. As Ernest
Holmes, the author of The
Science of Mind and This
Thing Called You says, "When thoughts of
confusion persistÉ statements of peace will neutralize them. When
thoughts of fear assail, statements of faith will counteract their
action. When thoughts of unhappiness well upÉ thoughts of happiness
and joy will transmute them."
Alright, before
you have me arrested for new age rambling on the job, I'm signing
offÉ to go enjoy the fruits of my own investing. Yes, having my
own business is a lot of work and the challenges are as rigorous
as the Tour de France. But the playing field is my own personal
Cote d'Azur, and I've never had a better time - ever, personally,
or as a single mother providing for a free-spirited teenager.
May your freedom plan yield as luscious a future for you and your
loved ones. It all starts with the first step and a new attitude
of love and confidence instead of fear and loathing.
Natalie
Pace is the CEO and founder of NataliePace.com. Currently, she is
ranked as the #1 stock picker in the US, out of over 700 A-list
pundits, by TipTtraders.com, with over 55% annualized gains on
the companies featured in NataliePace.com™. NataliePace.com's monthly
ezine is one of the best bargains on Wall Street, at just $4.50/month,
which is less than one grande latte. Caffeine provides a fleeting
zip to your life, but NataliePace.com's returns will make you want to
dance on the ceiling all night. Join now at the link on the NataliePace.com
home page.
Other
articles of interest:
Affordable
Health Care.
by Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, Economics.
Real
Estate (REITs)
Rules
Wall Street, but For How Long? Market Update. By Paul Woods, President
& CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
From
Flipping Burgers to Owning Your Own
Island. By Natalie Pace, NataliePace.com
CEO and founder. How tithing 10% to Your Nest Egg will make you
a millionaire, even if you're only bringing home $30,000.
Investing
is Not Surgery.
Brokers
are Not Surgeons. Why wise, informed, personal, daily, healthy
choices keep you fiscally fit. By Natalie Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and
founder.
Are
GM, Delphi and Delta the Beginning of Japan-like Stagnation for
the U.S.? Q&A with Nobel
Laureate Economist Gary Becker. By Natalie Pace.
Want
a Raise Now?
It
Could Be a Check Mark Away. by Maya Patel.
The
Eastern European Renaissance. This
Year's "It" Investment. Article and Stock Report Card by Natalie
Pace.
Leave
Your Job, Not
Your 401(k) By
Maya Patel. Discount Brokerages Make Rollover IRAs Easy.
NASD
Investor Alert:
Putting Too Much Stock in Your Company - A 401(k) Problem
What
the Mutual Fund Salesman
Forgot to Mention. by Paul Woods, President & CEO
of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
|
|
Should
You Dump Him (Your Broker)?
by Jessica
Mkitarian.
Lately all
you can notice is the way he taps his pen against your desk loud
enough to wake the neighbors. He's always late, he never asks
you what you want to do anymore, and he actually wears socks with
sandals. The relationship is getting stale, and you're thinking
it's time to cut it off Ñ with your broker.
Even if you
are not married to your broker, your relationship with your broker
Ñ and any person who handles the important aspects of your life,
financial or not Ñ should be honest, smart and healthy. You wouldn't
date someone you didn't trust, so why employ a broker whom you
don't trust? When it comes to relationships, the ones you like
and enjoy are the ones worth keeping. So if you leave a meeting
with your broker feeling awful, it's time to consider whether
he or she is the right person for you. Below are a few questions
to help you determine if you and your broker are compatible, or
if it's time to give him (or her) the boot.
1. Your
styles clash. You want to lock in profits, but he always wants
to wait until the prices rise some moreÉ and then fall. It's not
a case of having a boyfriend who wears a tie over a t-shirt to
the opera. This is your future you're banking on! (If he's been
right about his strategy and you're the one in need of fashion
and investing education, fire yourself as the whiner/complainer,
start educating yourself on his winning strategy and become an
ally!)
2. He doesn't
do his homework. Have you ever met with your broker and known
more about asset allocation, or interest rates or taxes or diversification
than he did? Not a good sign.
3. Look
into his past. Checking up on your broker might feel like
the equivalent of asking your beloved for a pre-nup, but you need
to know whether or not there are any complaints filed with the
National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD).
Also, because there is such a big turnover in the brokerage business,
find out how long your broker has worked in his current employment
and what company/field/industry he was employed in prior to becoming
a broker. It's not a crime (or a sin) to Google-stalk him, so
don't keep yourself in the dark about his past offenses (or clean
record).
4. Interview
the Exes. Who were his clients in the past? If they left,
maybe you should find out why. Many a marriage might be saved
(or avoided) if lovers adopted this policy!
5. Rollercoaster
Ride. Everyone loves the maverick É until he cracks your nest
egg. Is he a risk-taker and are you risk-averse? Would you rather
be investing in real estate than short-term stocks? If you and
your broker can't work this out, it's definitely worth breaking
up over. You'll have a lot more fun with someone whose idea of
a good time is compatible with yours. And no amount of returns
are worth a heart attack. (On the other hand, if you're the maverick
and he's the voice of reason, you might want to try yoga and meditation,
in order to nurture the relationship.)
6. Mr.
Know-It-All. He doesn't let you get a word out, and he talks
in a bunch of words and phrases that are designed to confuse rather
than enlighten you. This dude is a salesperson, not a partner.
A broker who doesn't let you voice your opinion is not working
for you; he's just executing his own game plan (which is likely
the one that puts the most money in his pocket - not yours). Remember,
they are your investments and it's your money. Evaluate him as
carefully as you would a husband candidate.
7. The
Lazy Boy. A successful investor researches and plays an active
role in his or her future. Your broker should be your partner
in bettering your future and securing your assets. If your broker
would rather sit with feet up and talk without acting
- then maybe it's time to have the talk about what YOU want. If
his idea of a date were beers and sitcoms, you'll probably dump
him. Why give your broker any more slack than a potential partner?
8. Ever
wonder why they call him a broke(r) instead of a rich(er)?
Brokers are salesmen. If he only calls to sell you something,
find out how much he makes if you buy investment X over investment
Y. You want to be adding sound holdings to your portfolio, not
just buying things to keep your broker remembering your name.
(This goes for stocks, bonds & real estate!) As Joe Moglia,
CEO of TD Ameritrade says, "In the full commission firms
in this country, the typical financial consultant covers 400-500
accounts. They get paid on the ones that have the greatest assets.
They realistically can't get to the majority of their client base."
If your broker isn't meeting your needs, the cyber
brokerages, like e*Trade, ScotTrade, TD Ameritrade
and more, might be a better plan!
9. King
Troglodyte. He talks with his mouth full, makes crude gestures
about your dress and calls you "Little Lady." Don't
underestimate manners and being polite. Rude behavior on a small
scale could end in you getting screwed. If s/he talks down to
you, deliberately uses big-sounding words and market vernacular
to prove "who's boss," who needs it?
10. Certification
by Kinko's. Does his financial certification look like it
was printed at Kinko's? Does he claim he went to California University,
like Zack Morris from Saved by the Bell? Also a bad sign. Recently,
I spoke to an "instructor" from one of these investing
schools. He was reading a script that was supplied by the company.
I asked him what kind of qualifications a person needs to teach
investing at that school. "None," he replied. In fact,
I have a relative, who has very little experience in the markets
and no college degree, who is making more money than he has ever
made in his life. Not in the stock markets by trading, but as
a "teacher" helping a company to hock software and training.
None of these Yahoos have records that stand up over time. If
you want to know the difference between the pros and the blowhards,
just refer to TipsTraders.com and/or Hulbert's Financial Digest.
These independent agencies track all of the performance of the
guru - every company they mention - and give you the returns in
black and white. Now if only they had a site like that for loversÉ
Or Maybe
You Should Re-evaluate What YOU Bring to the RelationshipÉ.
¥ Are
You Impossible to Talk To? Do you listen when your broker
offers suggestions or new ideas, or do you stick with your ideas
and what you already think you know? Don't be too fast to dump
him, especially if this is a broker who has been in the family
for decades and/or has managed the portfolio of a friend for the
same period of time. There are some exceptionally talented Certified
Financial Advisors out there. If you've got one, you could be
in a great position to learn some of his/her tricks! Brokers get
VERY frustrated when their clients want to run with the herd.
Selling low and buying high is a sure-fire way to LOSE your nest
egg, and is exactly what the inexperienced investor is inclined
to do!
¥ To trust
or not to trust. Do you resist taking your broker's advice
when it could be profitable? Maybe the issue here is trust. If
your broker is credible and knows what he's doing, you should
start to trust him/her, instead of headlines, hot tips and/or
analyst rankings. (Refer to the Top
10 Investment Mistakes.) A relationship that's not built
on trust will crumble, even if the broker was a good one. Make
sure that you have legit reasons to not trust your broker (like
s/he's getting too distracted with other clients to give your
portfolio time and/or has had prior complaints with the NASD),
rather than just your own hang-ups.
Good investments
can change your life. If your broker handles your investments
right, it's possible s/he could be setting you up for more freedom
and possibilities than you could ever imagine. It's ultimately
your responsibility to pick the right partner who can make this
dream come true! Be smart, and have a healthy, happy relationship!
Jessica Mkitarian
is currently an undergraduate junior studying economics at Boston
University. She enjoys writing and travel, and plans to continue
her studies, and obtain her Masters in Economics.
|
|
The
Beach Bum's Solution To Immigration:
by Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and founder.
Surf,
Sun and Mango Margaritas in Cabo San Lucas!
15 Reasons
to Vacation in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico This Year:
 |
| Infinite
Pool at Las Ventanas al Paraiso. Photo Credit: Rosewood Hotels
& Resorts |
1. Best
Solution to Immigration! It's pretty cool when drinking
mango margaritas while checking out surfers tearing up the waves
helps solve a political hot point! Vacation away from the heat
of the immigration issue, South of the Border in beautiful San
Jose Los Cabo, and you're providing a good reason for Mexicans
to stay and work in Mexico! (The local economy in Cabo San Lucas
is booming as a result of American travelers!)
2. Good
enough for Goldie! Goldie Hawn's Number 1 son, Oliver
Hudson (Kate Hudson's brother) married his beloved Erinn Barlett
in Cabo at the swanky/cool One&Only
Palmilla.
3. Mango
Margaritas. Need I say more?
4. Pesos.
Easy exchange rate, no matter how many shots of tequila you've
had. Just lose a zero. 50 pesos equal 5 dollars, more or less.
5. Triple
the room size. Someone forgot to tell the Cabo architects
the correct size for hotel rooms. At the Grand Baja All Suite
Resort and Spa, my two-bedroom suite was bigger than my first
condominium. And the separate bedrooms work great for kids, whether
your kids are toddlers or teenagers. Close enough to hear a cry;
private enough to pretend you don't hear the party going on.
6. Free
Sunset Cruises (from Time Share Salespeople). If you're
willing to sit for two hours while someone blathers on trying
to convince you to pay $25,000 to vacation at their hotel for
the next 30 years, you can win a free sunset cruise! (Or you can
just pay $25 for the sunset cruise and spend the two hours drinking
mango margaritas.) Beware that those friendly people at the airport
are all time-share salespeople. They are sucking you in with free
information and free gifts to tie you into a morning of presentations
and hard-sale negotiations. That's fine if your time is less valuable
than your money.
7. No
Montezuma's Revenge! Filtered water! Cabo has figured
out that the bed-ridden Gringo is bad for tourism, and has learned
to use filtered water for everything, including for ice and washing
the fruit! During my week at the Cabo Grand Resort, I didn't see
one person get sick, and I was no more regular than normal! Now
that's progress! If you want to stay extra safe, especially in
local restaurants that are not affiliated with a major hotel,
drink bottled beer and drinks without ice, and avoid any food
that has not been cooked - including fruit and salad.
8. Hot
Spots! And I'm not just talking about Cabo Wabo. I wrote
this report while lounging on the balcony of the Grand Baja, where
I could roam around my suite and pick up a Wi-Fi signal in almost
every room.
9. No
vacation-disrupting phone calls! It's just not that easy
calling Mexico. (Either that, or that is just what my bachelor-for-a-week
boyfriend told me, when I had to fly to Cabo solo on business.)
So, you can literally disappear off the planet (while staying
plugged into life, if you choose, via the Internet).
11. 2
ý hour direct flight from Los Angeles on Mexicana. You
don't have to spend all day in airports, catching connections
from out of the way cities, but you probably do have to choose
Mexicana Airlines, instead of the major U.S. carriers if you want
to fly direct. My flight was on-time, and the experience was more
pleasurable than I've had on many domestic airlines.
12. Awesome
snorkeling and diving. Jacques Cousteau called the Sea
of Cortez the "aquarium of the world." It's worth every
peso to go out scuba diving, snorkeling or kayaking.
 |
Resort-style
Lounging
Photo Credit: Esperanza Resort |
13. Something
for everyone. San Jose Los Cabo, where the Grand Cabo
Resort is located, is great for kids: more quiet. There's a well-known
surfer's point, where you can learn to surf, shred some decent
tubes or just watch the action. Cabo San Lucas is definitely a
party town! Resorts, like Esperanza, the One&Only Palmilla
and Las Ventanas al Paraiso, a Rosewood Resort, are well-known
couples getaways, having hosted some of the most famous couples
on the planet (including Kate Hudson, Goldie Hawn and family for
Oliver Hudson's wedding). Party you're a** off, nestle into your
lover's arms, listen to the insects or take the family for a walk
on the white sand beach. Your choice!
14.
Surfing and windsurfing. Cabo regularly hosts windsurfing
and surfing competitions. Whether you come to compete or to marvel
at the beauty of water sport athleticism, Cabo can be as attractive
to the water enthusiast as the better known Hawaii.
15. Bargain
Priced Ñ relatively. While Cabo isn't as cheap as you'd
hope, it is much more affordable than Los Angeles and Hawaii.
The food and beverage bill will not require a pound of flesh.
16. Year-Round
Sun! The average temperature in Cabo is 78 degrees Fahrenheit,
with 72 degree water temperature in the Sea of Cortez! Travel
during the summer off-season, and you're guaranteed a better rate,
that is if you can take the heat Ñ up to 100 degrees during the
day Ñ and don't mind a storm or two. Be willing to sit through
a time-share presentation and, if you're a qualified credit card
holder, you might get to go on the resort's dime. (More likely
to occur at the Grand Baja Resort than the One&Only Palmilla.)
Cabo San
Lucas Hotel Information
The
Grand Baja Resort and Spa
1.888.GoBaja1
Esperanza
866.311.2226
The
One&Only Palmilla
888.691.8081
Las
Ventanas al Paraiso, a Rosewood Resort
888.767.3966
Cabo
Weather Information:
|
|
Your
Biography Becomes Your Biology.
by
Gary Kobat.
Let
Love Relax You!
 |
| Gary
"on the wheel" of 7-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong |
"Some
thoughts - like fear - are like depth charges causing a negative
or dark or lower energy response, while love can relax your
entire body."
- Gary
Kobat
Everything
that is alive pulsates with energy and this energy contains
information. Your physical body is both an information center
and a highly perceptual system. We are consistently "in-communication"
with everything around us through this system.
Within YOUR
energy field exists emotional energy, which is created by your
internal and external experiences. These experiences can be
both positive and negative, light and dark, fleeting or long-lasting:
past relationships, traumatic experiences, belief patterns and
attitudes, family culture. Your emotional experiences reside
physically in your body and interact with your cells and tissues.
This emotional
energy forms an energy language within the cells, which carries
literal and symbolic information. In this way, your biography
- the experiences that make up your life - becomes your biology.
Your body contains your history - every chapter and verse. As
your life unfolds, your health becomes a living, breathing statement
that conveys your strengths, weaknesses, hopes and fears.
Every emotion
travels through your biological system and activates a physical
response. Some thoughts - like fear - are like depth charges
causing a negative, dark or lower energy response, while love
can relax your entire body and while some are meaningless and
pass through the body like wind through a screen.
Learning
the language of energy means to evaluate the dynamics in yourself,
others and your experiences. Energy information is always truthful
and your relationship, your labeling, your embracing, your surrendering,
your letting go or holding on too tight influences your health.
Managing your energy is an essential component to facilitating
your growth, your health, your longevity or your healing.
Whether
world class human or world class athlete, or both, "healing"
is an active and internal process that includes investigating
one's attitudes, beliefs, memories, and relationships to
energy, experiences, identities and power. While "curing" is
the abatement of a block or illness, it does not necessarily
include alleviation of the emotional stress of the blockage
or "healing."
Our desire
is to "heal" and release all negative, dark, low patterns that
prevent us from being whole, our true, highest, most awesome
self - whether on the Tour de France or our own "Tour de France
of Life."
"The
body is a memory card. It stores every emotion and experience
you have; from the traumatic to the profound. The untreated
ones? Well, they sit with you until they are toxic. Then
it's too late." - Bobby Julich, Team CSC
2006, 3rd place Tour de France 1998.
For an athlete,
confidence is everything. Bobby Julich quickly recovered from
the physical injuries sustained in a bad fall in 1999 the year
after his 3rd place "tour" podium finish, but it was only last
year that he got over the crash in it's entirety - yes the memory
card of crash emotions was holding him back.
At 32, Julich
was about to call it a career when Bjarne Riis called from Team
CSC and offered him a contract. Julich said, "His confidence
rubbed off on me. He treated me world class, like a leader,
spoke to me like a leader, respected me like a leader... but
I reminded him that I wasn't 27 anymore and that 1998 and third
place was a long time ago."
"Bobby,"
said Riis, "I was 32, when I won the Tour in 1996."
All that
was left inside Julich when he joined Team CSC was a tiny
little flame wanting to get better. What Riis did was like pouring
gasoline on that tiny little flame; what Riis said gives
goose bumps to Julich to this day. At the advanced, experienced,
and wise age of 35, the fire is still burning in Julich and
the 2006 Tour is about to start.
Good Luck
Bobby.
ÉTake charge
of your training ...your emotions ...your biology
...and your life.
Train smart.
Live, race, and recover smarter, now.
Gary Kobat
A passionate
life and fitness coach, world-class athlete, author, and keynote
speaker, Gary Kobat works one-on-one with select individuals,
customized mastermind groups, and larger goal oriented teams
for lasting personal and professional change. If you are interested
in joining a group or for a private consultation, email him
directly at: gary@e-coach.com.
Gary is currently leading his annual indoor Tour de France training
at the Revolution
Studios in Santa Monica, California. Click for more
information.
|
|
Disrupting
the Auto Industry.
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
Potential
winners and losers as the cost of vehicle ownership increases.
Several decades
ago, General Motors was making cars with quality standards that
would have embarrassed the Russians. When GM's market research
chief tried to inform Chairman Roger Smith of this, Smith is reported
to have put his hands over his ears so he wouldn't hear the bad
news. After all, who's going to buy a new car if the old one is
still running!? The rest, as they say, is history.
There's little
doubt that increasing gasoline prices will change the driving
habits of some people. However, improving your gas mileage may
not lead to spending less to drive a car. With some cars, being
on a first name basis with your mechanic or watching your car
lose value like an internet stock after the bubble can do a lot
more damage to your pocketbook than $3.50 gasoline. All sides
of the equation need to be considered and, in that regard, there
have been some surprising changes in the auto industry in the
last few years.
Reliability
The most comprehensive and objective measure of auto reliability
comes from an annual survey done by Consumer
Reports, in which subscribers reported reliability problems
for all makes and models covering eight model years. It
will probably come as a surprise to some people that America no
longer builds the world's least reliable cars. That dubious distinction
now belongs to Europe whose automakers now produce some of the
world's least reliable cars and the highest price tags. For what
it's worth, of all the five year old cars in the 2005 survey,
Mercedes Benz had the most problems reported while Lexus had the
fewest.
One caveat
here is that Korean cars are included in the Asian category, and
reliability ratings for these are still below average. If these
are excluded, the big 3 Japanese manufacturers (Toyota, Honda,
& Nissan), averaged about 33 problems per 100 vehicles, which
appears to be a quality gap that America and Europe may never
be able to close. Another way of looking at this data is that
eight year old Toyotas and Hondas are about as reliable as three
year old Fords and Chryslers and two year old Volkswagens.
Depreciation
Of all the costs of car ownership, depreciation is the
major expense for most people. This is the silent killer, and
you won't notice it until you trade in your car. When you do,
a five-year warranty on parts and service will probably seem relatively
insignificant in comparison.
Depreciation
should mirror reliability; just as used vehicles likely to need
a lot of expensive repairs should be worth less than more reliable
cars. What's puzzling here is that perception appears to be lagging
reality when it comes to European cars. Okay, some of these are
beautifully designed and fun to drive and are probably the car
equivalent of supermodels. They're gorgeous and great for your
image, but maintenance can be a killer.
Not that long
ago, some European car makers ranked among the best in overall
quality and relatively low depreciation rates were justified.
Now that they're the worst, it's an open question on how long
these companies will continue to live off past glories before
depreciation rates become more realistic.
Because European
car makers have the highest manufacturing costs and price their
cars accordingly, 69% depreciation in a European car over 5 years
will amount to a lot more dollars than 73% depreciation in an
American car or 78% depreciation in a Korean car. In addition,
when perception finally catches up with reality, we expect European
cars to depreciate faster in the future. (For more information,
visit the Automotive
Lease Guide.)
Gas
Mileage
The classic warning from the EPA is that your gas mileage
may vary. It will, and the chances of it being higher than EPA
estimates are zero. The best rule of thumb is to give the EPA
estimates a 15-20% haircut when computing real world gas mileage.
If you're considering a new car and drive about 15,000 miles per
year, here's the annual cost of driving with gasoline at $3.50
per gallon:
|
Miles
Driven Per Year
|
Miles
Per Gallon
|
Cost
of Gasoline Per Gallon
|
Annual
Cost of Driving
|
|
15,000
|
10
|
$3.50
|
$5,250
|
|
15,000
|
15
|
$3.50
|
$3,500
|
|
15,000
|
20
|
$3.50
|
$2,625
|
|
15,000
|
25
|
$3.50
|
$2,100
|
|
15,000
|
30
|
$3.50
|
$1,750
|
|
15,000
|
35
|
$3.50
|
$1,500
|
|
15,000
|
40
|
$3.50
|
$1,313
|
|
15,000
|
45
|
$3.50
|
$1,167
|
|
15,000
|
50
|
$3.50
|
$1,050
|
As you can
see, the difference between an MPG of 10 and 20 is over $200 per
month. Although this isn't the biggest driving expense, it's the
most visible. However, our guess is that, even with the recent
spike, gasoline costs are just getting back to where they were
a decade or two ago as a percentage of total household expenses.
This will be enough to change the driving habits of some people,
but it will probably take significantly higher prices to change
the behavior of the majority.
 |
| Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC |
If this country's
solution to the supply/demand imbalance that created high gasoline
prices is to blame oil companies for price gouging, we expect
current gasoline prices to look cheap in a few years. Given that
few in Washington seem to understand the source of this problem,
we have low expectations of a successful solution being found.
As a result, we're factoring increasing gasoline prices into our
expectations for the future and expect a gradual shift to more
fuel-efficient vehicles as a result.
It's been
fascinating to watch the world's auto makers respond to high gasoline
prices. Japanese car makers appear to have seen this coming a
long time ago and came up with the most elegant solution, American
manufacturers are offering various solutions, and Europeans aren't
doing anything new and would rather just keep talking about their
high performance sedans.
Living
or Dying with SUVs
It's hard to turn on the TV without seeing commercials
touting the big SUV that will go from zero to sixty in under 6
seconds, is big enough to carry a small village, and probably
has annual gasoline costs that rival its depreciation. We don't
think SUVs are going away, but expect to see a gradual switch
to hybrid SUVs based on the Toyota technology.
Ford currently
appears to be best positioned of an unimpressive group of domestic
automakers. Their cars have the highest reliability ratings, and
Ford is the only domestic offering multiple options for responding
to rising energy prices. They've licensed the Toyota hybrid technology
for some of their SUVs and also offer a variety of flexible fuel
vehicles. GM and Chrysler, in contrast, offer only flexible fuel
vehicles. Overall, we wouldn't be surprised to see American car
makers lose more market share and can't help wondering how General
Motors will continue to survive the cumulative effects of decades
of mismanagement.
Europe
the Unreliable
As builders of the least reliable cars, some European
carmakers remind us of General Motors 20 years ago. These cars
are also the world's most expensive and, to add insult to injury,
many of these manufacturers believe that anyone willing to spend
a lot on a car should also pay through the nose for repairs. As
a result, repair costs border on the absurd for many of these
models once warranties have expired. As far as responding to higher
fuel costs, European manufacturers are ignoring hybrid technology
completely, and only Mercedes offers a small selection of flexible
fuel vehicles. Overall, for what you get, ownership costs are
way too high and we expect significant losses in world market
share for the Europeans in the future.
Still
Doing it Right
It's hard to think of anything that's a worse investment
than a new car, and the Japanese have been successful by minimizing
that damage to your pocketbook. The larger question is why other
manufacturers haven't been able to duplicate their formula. Japanese
vehicles need the fewest repairs, hold their value better than
anything else, and are the most fuel-efficient. As more people
begin to pay attention to the cost of driving, the Japanese share
of the auto market will continue to grow. In the next decade,
we wouldn't be surprised if the Big 3 includes at least two Japanese
automakers.
The
Pick of the Litter
This is an easy one; it's Toyota. In the last quality
survey from Consumer Reports, Lexus ranked #1 and their parent,
Toyota, ranked #2. In addition to doing everything well, they
had the vision to anticipate higher gasoline prices and come up
with the most practical solution. Toyota's hybrid gas/electric
vehicle technology can be used to increase gas mileage dramatically
or provide better gas mileage AND more horsepower. Best of all,
Americans won't have to change their driving habits and try to
squeeze into little cars as Toyota's hybrid technology can be
used in comfortable sedans and SUVs.
Although Honda
has a competing hybrid technology, it's no contest. Honda's hybrid
technology carries a shorter warranty and they can't even seem
to get Acura, their semi-luxury car division, to adopt this technology.
Meanwhile, Toyota's hybrid vehicle technology has been licensed
by archrival Nissan as well as Ford and Mercury, and that may
only be the start. We're even willing to predict that, when General
Motors finally declares bankruptcy, Toyota will be the one picking
up the pieces. For disclosure purposes, it should be mentioned
that Odyssey Advisors LLC has invested in Toyota Motor (TM) for
a select group of clients.
NataliePace.com
note: To take a look at the price, debt, earnings, and other statistics
of the major auto manufacturers, click on the NataliePace.com Auto
Report Card.
Paul Woods
is the President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in equities and fixed income
and a monthly contributor to NataliePace.com. He can be contacted at
www.odysseyadvisors.com
or 310.568.4700. Check NataliePace.com's archived ezines for other articles
by Paul!
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Other Articles
of Interest:
Hybrids:
Car of the Stars, But Should You Own the Stock? By Natalie
Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com.
July 1st.
, 2004 In July 2004, we warned: ÒIn 2005 and 2006, when rising
interest rates and inflation are expected to be a problem, automakers
will be hit by higher costs to finance cars and higher prices
of the steel, aluminum, etc. used to produce cars. Metals' prices
are up 30% or more this year over last, so an increased cost of
goods has already begun impacting the bottom line of automakers.
The result could be higher costs for consumers, fewer financing
incentives and slowing demand in the not too distant future. Investing
now in a car manufacturer's stock is a risky venture that requires,
at minimum, a carefully planned buy-in and exit strategy.Ó Click
on Hybrids
to read the entire article.
Copyright
© 2006 by Odyssey Advisors LLC
|
|
$72
Oil Will Sink Airlines:
by Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO & founder.
Don't
Buy On Hot Headlines and Analyst Upgrades!
Article
and Airline
Stock Report Card.
 |
| David
Neeleman, Chairman & CEO of JetBlue Airways |
Wow. I don't
think I've been this excited in awhile. On June 20th,
a Forbes headline read: "Airline Stocks Look Ready To Soar."
In mid-June, UBS and Morgan Stanley analysts were upbeat about
airlines charging higher fares, and getting some sorely needed
revenue in the door. On June 22nd, Jim Cramer crowed
that Continental "is going to have a monster quarter"
during his Mad Money Lightning Round. (Incidentally, his comments
on General Motors are just plain wrong, as well.)
Am I the only
one to notice that oil is topping $72/barrel, and that high gas
prices, combined with pension liabilities, have crippled the legacy
carriers, sending the majority of them to Chapter 11? In their
most recent quarterly report, one of the last network carriers
standing -- American Airlines -- warned that, "It will be
very difficultÉ for the Company to continue to fund its obligations
on an ongoing basis, or to become profitable, if the overall industry
revenue environment does not continue to improve and fuel prices
remain at historically high levels for an extended period."
In 2005, when
oil was just in the $60/barrel range, we had three of the largest
carriers in bankruptcy - United Airlines, U.S. Air and Delta.
(U.S. Air has slid into bankruptcy twice over the last four years.)
Even the lean, low-cost airline, JetBlue, lost money over the
last two quarters, after boasting 19 prior, consecutive quarters
of profitability. It doesn't take a doctor to diagnose that the
entire airline industry will be crippled by $72/barrel oil, or
that, with the monetary tightening policy of the Federal Reserve,
the 20% increase in fuel prices cannot just be absorbed by U.S.
consumers and corporations. The picture gets much worse if oil
continues to go up, and many oil experts believe that is what
is likely to happen.
Last year,
on March 30 2005, Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun N. Murti shocked
the world when he said he wouldn't be surprised to see $75/barrel
oil in 2006 and $105/barrel in 2007. Whether Murti hits the number
right next year or not remains to be seen, but the underlying
premise is that the conditions in the marketplace continue to
apply pressure for the price to go up. With China and India sucking
up oil like teenagers as they bring their economies from the 1800s
into 2006, the oil-producing countries are running full-throttle
to keep up with demand.
So what had
the airline analysts so excited in mid-June? Higher ticket prices.
Morgan Stanley tracking shows that 21-day advanced fares are up
13%, and 7-day fares soared 33% over the last quarter. Morgan
Stanley analyst William Greene predicted that higher ticket prices
will lead to better-than-expected revenue over the rest of the
year, and that JetBlue could beat their July quarterly earnings
by twice the Wall Street consensus, and pull in ahead of the full-year
consensus as well. While JetBlue might beat earnings for the near-term
quarter in July, higher oil prices could spoil any possibility
of earnings surprises in the future, and in fact, might put the
airline back into negative earnings, even with their new Return
to Profitability Plan.
I called the
JetBlue executive suite, in hopes that their "revenue enhancements"
might be as innovative as humans walking on Mars (which is about
what the industry needs to become profitable). In an interview
on June 27, 2006, Tim Claydon, JetBlue's Senior Vice President
in charge of Sales & Marketing, confirmed that JetBlue is
"undertaking several revenue-enhancing initiatives in an
effort to return to profitability." Unfortunately, while
all of the enhancements are related to the core business model
and should help earnings, and while the cost savings could add
up, a little, the plan is far from groundbreaking.
According
to Claydon, JetBlue's primary focus is to increase their overall
fares and reduce costs, while still providing flyers with the
JetBlue experience they've come to know and love. New revenue
streams -- like JetBlue's subsidiary LiveTV (which installs and
operates DirecTV for JetBlue, Virgin Blue, Frontier and other
airlines), the JetBlue/American Express card, and airline change
fees -- provided an additional bump of $11 million to last quarter's
earnings, and truly look poised to increase in value in the near
future. LiveTV might really score if the FCC grants them a license
to offer Internet Service, Blackberry, two-way paging, etc. in-flight
- that is, if the other airlines were in a position to add the
offering for their customers. Unfortunately, most airlines are
cutting every non-essential cost in site, and will be forced to
continue to do so as long as oil remains high! Further, the goods
news of JetBlue's "other" revenue streams are drowned
in fuel costs, which doubled from the first quarter 2005 to the
first quarter 2006, from $87 million to $160 million respectively.
It's hard
to imagine that a no frills carrier can cut costs further, but
apparently if JetBlue can get you to bring your own headset, through
their, "It's Universal, Jack" marketing campaign, they
can save millions per year. (JetBlue's plug-in works with any
headset, so it actually is a good idea to pack your own.) But
again, that is millions saved, compared to hundreds of millions
spent on fuel.
JetBlue is
much healthier than other airlines, with only $2.154 billion owed
in long-term debt and about $800 million in current liabilities.
Delta Airlines, which is currently operating under bankruptcy
protection, reported owing $18.695 billion in total liabilities
subject to compromise. Of that $8.873 billion is owed to its pension
plan and retirees, $5.768 billion in debt, $2.772 billion for
aircraft leases, and $1.282 billion in accounts payable. Continental
owes over $10 billion in current liabilities, long-term debt and
pension funding. American Airlines' financial obligations surpass
$26.6 billion, including $5.1 billion owed to pension plans, according
to the earnings report filed with the SEC on April 20, 2006. Click
to access the Airline
Stock Report Card, to compare the earnings, debt,
market cap, price and more of the airlines.
Being a frequent
business traveler who has been forced to board other airlines
for cities that are not yet served by my beloved JetBlue, I can
attest firsthand that the JetBlue experience is vastly superior
to ANY other commercial airline. I have never arrived late on
JetBlue, whereas I was almost forced to spend an entire weekend
in Omaha waiting for a hydraulic leak to be fixed on an old plane.
Brand new planes with leather seats and a DirecTV monitor at each
seat means that you arrive on time, feel safer during take-off
and landing, and enjoy the flight, without craning your neck to
try and see the in-flight movie you probably wouldn't even bother
to rent. The snacks on JetBlue may not be much, but at least you
get to have an extra one without any bother at all, if you are
in the mood for chips, cookies, nuts or biscotti (and you get
a choice!). Many of the other carriers' snacks look like they
are purchased from El Cheapo Generic food center, and the portions
are downright meager.
 |
| DirecTV
at every seat on JetBlue |
Because I
enjoy the experience of JetBlue so much as a passenger, I really
wanted to hear Mr. Claydon come up with a revenue-enhancing plan
that could counter escalating fuel costs. But no amount of selling
upgraded headsets, or even in-flight connectivity, can compare
with the revenue-enhancing hedge that Southwest offers investors.
While most airlines were late to the hedging game, and were locking
in oil at above $60/barrel, Southwest was 75 percent hedged with
prices capped at $36 per barrel for the 2nd quarter
in 2006. That means Southwest's fuel, which is the biggest line
item for airlines next to labor, is drastically lower than most
airlines (and the Southwest executive in charge of hedging deserves
the Executive of the Year award). Southwest's second quarter 2006
fuel cost per gallon is expected to be in the $1.45 to $1.50 range,
while JetBlue's fuel costs are running at and above $1.86 per
gallon. According to Southwest's first quarter earnings report,
the company has locked in prices under $40 a barrel through 2009,
and remains "over 70 percent hedged for the remainder of
2006 at $36 per barrel; over 60 percent in 2007 at $39 per barrel;
over 35 percent in 2008 at $38 per barrel; and about 30 percent
in 2009 at $39 per barrel."
That doesn't
mean that Southwest shares are any bargain either, with their
25.30 price to earnings ratio. All in all, oil prices, which have
been inching upward this summer on the escalating tensions with
Iran and the supply strain, continue to be the sinkhole of the
airline industry. Even if July earnings do bring a positive surprise
for JetBlue and/or Southwest, the overall outlook for the entire
sector is grim, until someone invents solar-powered planes.
Flying JetBlue
is a great experience; buying JetBlue could be a bumpy, unpleasant
ride. And while Southwest's ride may not be as bumpy, the stock
has been stuck in a trading rut for the past five years, and doesn't
look to be breaking out anytime soon. If you're into bikinis and
shorts this summer, American Airlines might be the destination
of choice, although the fall might arrive well into winter.
Natalie
Pace is the CEO and founder of NataliePace.com. Currently, she is
ranked as the #1 stock picker in the US, out of over 700 A-list
pundits, by TipTtraders.com, with over 55% annualized gains on
the companies featured in NataliePace.com™. NataliePace.com's monthly
ezine is one of the best bargains on Wall Street, at just $4.50/month,
which is less than one grande latte. Caffeine provides a fleeting
zip to your life, but NataliePace.com's returns could build your nest
egg for life. Join now at the link on the NataliePace.com home page.
Full Disclosure:
Natalie Pace has no positions on any of the publicly traded companies
listed in this article.
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|
5.25%
on the Fed Funds is the Same Old Song From Bennie and the Jets.
by Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment
Quality Trends.
 |
| Ben
S. Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman |
The
markets wait with baited breath in the pre-dawn hours of June
14th to learn "the number." The number is
of course the Consumer Price Index; both the headline number and
the "core" number that has the cost of rarely used items
such as food and fuel removed.
It
appears a great deal is riding on a tenth of a point. A reading
of .03% would guarantee another rate hike by the Fed at the end
of June. A reading of .02% would insure the status quo. A reading
of .01% will surely ignite the discussion of just how much inflationary
pressure in the economy there actually is and whether another
rate hike is necessary.
Frankly,
I don't believe the Fed gives a tinkers diddle what the number
isÑas they intend to hike regardless. Casual observation of the
Big Three central bankers from Europe, Japan and the U.S. suggests
that they are acting in concert to drain the liquidity they injected
into the global markets to ward off recession and possible deflation.
In
addition to re-inflating the global equity and real estate markets,
the bankers brought the moribund commodity markets to life and
set off the wildest bull market in commodities in a generation.
$730
per ounce of gold was the straw that broke the camel's back, however,
and so the collusion began. I haven't seen this much unity among
bureaucrats since I don't know when. It appears that gold is a
threat to those pieces of paper we call the currency.
Is
it just me or is it ironic that a nation that is so fearful of
anything faith-based is so willing to accept a faith based currency?
But I digress.
Anyway,
I think 5.25% on the Fed Funds is a lay up; the equity markets
can go stick it in their ear. Bennie and the Jets have bought
into the hype. What is completely perplexing to me is how a man
as intelligent as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is believed
to be can be sucked into the financial media's ridiculous
game of establishing his "inflation fighting credentials."
With
$2 trillion of equity wiped out worldwide in the last few weeks,
the housing and retail indexes in freefall, and the two-year Treasury
screaming "STOP" at the top of its lungs, why is the
Fed looking at backward data and worrying about inflation? Because
they always fight the last war and they have no way of gauging
the effects of their policy until something breaks.
It
isn't the best way to run the world's largest economy, but what
the heck do I know? I'm just a stock picker trying to make lemonade
out of lemons. That being said, I'll lay even odds that when the
Fed meets in December they will be cutting the Fed Funds
rate.
Well,
we have our number. The fact that it topped economists' predictions
should be a surprise to no one. .04% for the headline and .03%
for the core has lead the futures market to price in 100% odds
that the Fed will raise at the end of June. The same odds makers
are pricing a 50/50 chance that the Fed will go to 5.50% in August.
Interestingly
we aren't seeing a huge reaction in the yield curve. Nine basis
points in the 10-year (a basis point is 1/100th of
a percent) from 4.96% to 5.05% is a much more sanguine reaction
than I would have predicted.
The
2-year is at 5.09% as is the 30-year which leaves the inversion
with the 3, 5 and 10-year bonds intact. I can only interpret this
to mean that as of this moment the bond market isn't buying what
is being sold.
Stocks
are getting a bounce, which isn't unusual considering the beating
they have been taking as of late; no market moves in a straight
line for too long. The test will come in the last hour of trading
when the buyers will attempt to withstand the inevitable push
by the sellers to resume the downtrend.
The
VIX (a snapshot of the fear level in the markets based on the
level of put buying) has resurrected from the grave. Resembling
the EKG of a patient at room temperature for quite some time,
the VIX has moved from 10 to about 23 and seems poised to move
into the 30's. For those of you who don't follow the minutia of
the markets this would represent uber volatility.
Put
another way, Chairman Bernanke has successfully injected the risk
premium back into the markets. This is to further say that the
free lunch is over and the asset allocation models of efficiently
diversified portfolios with their accompanying pie charts will
be exposed for what they are: flashy marketing and nothing more.
You
don't have to be a genius in a rising market Ñ you just have to
be in. Since this isn't a bull market it means it's a bear market,
and if you don't know how to identify value and deploy some enlightened
stock picking, then you've got a problem. Thankfully it isn't
our problem.
I've
caught a great deal of grief, particularly by the newsletter voyeurs
that don't do what we do but write about what we do for the big
media owned outlets of financial punditry, for maintaining that
we are still in the bear market that began in March of 2000.
I
probably brought some of this on myself by pointing out the sycophantic
tendencies of some to embrace the bandwagon philosophy of applauding
the hot hand of the moment. Now everyone loves a winner, but there
is a tendency among non-professionals to try to capture yesterday's
performance, and this is a wrong-headed instinct that one would
think a seemingly respectful dispenser of market advice would
try to discourage. However, it's all about hits and visits
in this digital world of information. At the end of the day much
hasn't changed from the magazine covers of old to the website
headlines. Hype sells.
Closing
Bell
Now
for the good news: value is created as prices decline and dividend
yields rise. Yes, the number of Select Blue Chips in Declining
Trends is still the largest sector of our universe, but a significant
number are accelerating toward their historic areas of Undervalue.
One
company I find interesting is Connecticut Water (CTWS). It
still has to move a few dollars lower and its payout and P/E ratio
aren't optimum, but as commodities go, water falls pretty high
up the food chain. I suspect we'll have an opportunity to look
at this one closer relatively soon.
Teleflex (TFX) is well known to Trendphiles as a familiar
member of the Lucky 13. We sold it out of our model portfolio
at Private Client earlier this Spring for a healthy gain and it
looks as if it will visit Undervalue again.
FirstMerit Corp (FMER) appears to be retreating from its Rising
Trend back to Undervalue. With the preponderance of financials
we have covered at length and considering FMER is at the lower
scale of dividends and earnings quality with a B+ rating, subscribers
may want to consider another opportunity.
In the Undervalued category I am mystified by some of the
bargains, specifically Popular (BPOP). The shenanigans
at some other Puerto Rican banks have not surfaced at BPOP and
I don't believe they will. Like all businesses they are suffering
through a transitory slump in their core business, but if there
is a franchise with a growing demographic base, it is this one.
Claire's Stores (CLE) is still misunderstood by Wall Street.
I know they are in the retail space but their primary customers
are fairly indifferent to the economic cycle. As the father of
two daughters I know better than anyone that a girl has to have
her bling!
When
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) gets their bank charter it will be
Katy-bar-the-door. You don't think they will move into car loans,
home loans, credit cards and investments? Please.
The
Hulbert Financial Digest ranks IQ
Trends the number one investment newsletter out of
the 165 letters surveyed for risk-adjusted returns for the previous
twenty years. Investment
Quality Trends also qualified for the Total
Return Ranking for twenty years. What is important to note is
that IQ Trends achieved its returns with about 24% less
risk than the Wilshire 5000. Beyond the obvious that superior
returns with less risk is desirable, less risk equates to less
volatility and therefore generates higher compound rates of return
over time. If you are interested in accessing Mr. Wright's newsletter,
to post those kinds of gains yourself, go to www.IQTrends.com.
|
|
NASD
Investor Alert: Think Twice Before Cashing Out Your 401(k).
If
you do, you could lose half of your savings!
A recent
study indicates that 45% of employees cash out their 401(k) plans
when they change jobsÉ When all is said and done, you could end
up with a little more than half of your original 401(k) savings!
There are
at least four better ideas! Read on for the NASD
Investor Alert, which includes links to make all of your
choices as easy as a click!
 |
| Photo
Credit: www.mazell.com.
Film and Video Production. Advertising Photography. 562-866-7662 |
If you are
thinking about cashing out your 401(k) when you change jobs, think
twice. Or maybe three times. You might be about to forsake
a financially secure retirement. NASD is using this Alert to educate
investors to the potentially devastating impact cashing even a
modest amount of 401(k) assets can have on retirement savings.
When you switch
jobs before retirement, you usually can choose among several things
to do with your 401(k):
¥ Leave the
money in your former employer's plan
¥ Roll
over the money to your new employer's plan, if the
plan accepts transfers
¥ Roll
over the money into an Individual Retirement Account (IRA),
or
¥ Take
the cash value of your account
It may be
tempting to choose the last option and use the money to buy a
new television, take a cruise or even to pay off a debt. And
you would not be alone in thinking that way: a recent study indicates
that 45% of employees cash out their 401(k) plans when they change
jobs. (Source: Hewitt Associates study of large-company 401(k)
plans.)
But cashing
out of a 401(k) before you are 59 1⁄2 can cost you dearly,
both immediately and in the long run:
¥ If you do
not transfer your money to an IRA or your new employer's plan
within 60 days of receiving it, your current employer is required
to withhold 20% of your account balance to prepay federal taxes.
¥ If
you keep the money, you must pay federal income tax on your entire
withdrawal. In addition, you may also owe state tax on your distribution.
¥ The
IRS will consider your payout an early distribution, meaning you
could owe a 10% early withdrawal penalty on top of combined federal,
state, and local taxes.
When all is
said and done, you could end up with a little more than half
of your original 401(k) savings! In addition, you will
owe tax annually on any future earnings your lump sum generates.
The
High Cost of Cashing Out
The
repercussions of cashing out your 401(k) could be enormous. For
example, let's assume you are 30 years old, and have a 401(k)
balance of $20,000. If you leave that money in a 401(k) or
put it in an IRA, and your account averages a 6% rate of return
over the next 32 years, your balance at retirement will be $129,068
Ñ even if you do not make any additional contributions during
that time. Even if you have a shorter time horizon, you will
forgo significant savings opportunities by cashing out your 401(k). For
example, if you are 45, your $20,000 will grow to $53,855 in 17
years.
Keep in mind
that even if you really need the money, you may be better off
borrowing from your 401(k) than cashing it out.
Depending on your plan's terms, you may be able to borrow at a
lower rate from your account than you could from a bank or other
lender, especially if you have a low credit score. At the
very least, you should check with your plan administrator to learn
whether this option makes sense for you before you cash out. To
learn more about 401(k) loans, read NASD's Smart
401(k) Investing.
When you change
employers, carefully examine the short and long-term consequences
before cashing out of your 401(k) account. After all, when
talking about tax-deferred savings plans, time is money.
|
|
Safe,
Balanced & Happy:
by
The Wallet Doctor.
How
to Reduce Your Risk of Bankruptcy by 87 Percent and Keep Your
Love Life Healthy!
 |
| Photo
Credit: www.mazell.com.
Film and Video Production. Advertising Photography. 562-866-7662 |
My
all time favorite financial quote is from the must read book Bull!:
a history of the boom, 1982-1999: what drove the breakneck market
-- and what every investor needs to know about financial cycles
by former Yale English professor and financial journalist Maggie
Mahar:
"Throughout
the nineties, baby boomers would be overwhelmed with financial
advice, yet in hindsight, the counsel that the boomers most
needed was the simplest: save a little more, but save consistently.
Start early; spread the money out; and avoid large loses by
shunning steep risks. Pass by anything that sounds too
good to be true, and let the miracle of compounding do the
rest."
In
this article I am going to dissect this quote so that you will
understand why it offers sage advice you will rarely hear. The
most important part of this quote is toward the end where you
are advised to stay away from very risky situations, so let's
start there. The main problem is that people don't really understand
what risk is, but they definitely know the sinkpit, and that is
bankruptcy.
The Harvard
Bankruptcy Project is a Harvard University study spearheaded by
the compassionate efforts of Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth
Warren. The study interviewed over 900 families that had filed
for bankruptcy in 2001. 87% of all bankruptcies were attributed
to just three causes: loss of job, medical problems, or divorce.
All other reasons accounted for only 13% and these included bad
investments, crime victimization, credit card overspending, and
natural disasters.
When
I read these statistics I thought to myself, "WOW, someone
could nearly eliminate their risk of bankruptcy by controlling
just three factors!" In other words, by marrying wisely,
planning ahead for potential job loss and assuring medical coverage,
we can all reduce our financial risks by a full 87%!
How
can people marry wisely? It is not very likely with our weak conscious
minds. Psychologists have shown that on average we can only consciously
remember between 5 and 9 numbers. Our subconscious is much more
powerful. As you read this, your mind is subconsciously recognizing
hundreds or thousands of data Ñ or you would not be seeing! My
point is that trying to use our conscious mind to find a mate
is useless. If you can find a compatible mate-finding method to
help you follow your "higher" guide and tap into your
subconscious mind, I think you will do better.
I
found my wife in a peculiar way. Years before I met my wife, my
prior girlfriend had died in a car wreck. I was emotionally devastated
by the experience. I swore off dating entirely and got drunk Ñ
really drunk Ñ and ended up in a Reno, Nevada jail for a night.
I had just graduated with a master's in international business
and was really at a low point. I wracked my brain for a solution
to finding stability in a long-term relationship with the right
significant other Ñ and a cold night in jail is a real motivator.
After apologizing to the judge for my drunken behavior, I took
action; he did not press charges under the extenuating circumstance.
I started with a pen and pad of paper. I wrote down all of the
details of the exact woman I wanted to marry and then folded up
the letter, stashed it away, and forgot about it.
Three
years later I met my wife. Ironically, as a devout Catholic woman
she had done something equally odd, but different. Two weeks before
she met me, a friend in the church came over to visit and did
some sort of ritual designed to have the Holy Spirit give her
a sign of whom she should marry Ñ as she was uncertain if her
current suitors were right for her. We met, married, and have
been together for 14 years.
We
are a tightly organized team in all of our finances. I am not
a marriage counselor, but I have a solid and successful marriage.
I believe I was able to find and marry the right person for me
because I got my ego out of the process. Hopefully this will help
you in considering a solution to the first of the big three bankruptcy
reasons: divorce. Don't get all wrapped up in the dating scene
and eventually the right person will appear Ñ as long as you become
very clear on who the right person for you is, and then get your
conscious ego out of the way.
What
about the second big problem: job loss? I am going to propose
a strategy here that is unconventional Ñ that in a marriage, one
of the spouses stays at home and does not seek a nine to five
job.
When
there is only one wage earner and a spouse managing the home front,
all family budgeting is based on one salary, NOT two. This means
that instead of entering the bidding war for overpriced houses
in the best school districts, other alternatives are worked out.
(I come from a horrible school district in Northern California
and yet I obtained the highest credential in finance Ñ a Ph.D.)
This means that if the primary wage earner loses their job, the
stay at home father or stay at home mother can get a job to cover
Ñ kind of like an emergency income for the family. There are other
benefits that come with a stay at home mother or father.
I
myself am a stay at home spouse. I work at the university as a
full-time finance professor, which only requires two days a week
of my time (a benefit of my Ph.D. in finance) while my wife works
as a programming supervisor at the largest bank in Puerto Rico.
Her parents are elderly, so when they need help I can run down
the avenue and help. This avoids a lot of expenses and reduces
my wife's probability of job loss because she doesn't have to
leave work in family emergencies. We are also successful stock
investors because I am able to research our stock purchases and
monitor the market for profit taking. This would not be possible
if we both had nine to five jobs. If she got sick or lost her
job, I could work a second job to compensate.
A
dear friend of mine was a successful ophthalmologist in West Covina.
He was a brilliant surgeon but did not have a lick of sense when
it came to money. So how did he become extremely rich? I was surprised
when I found out why. His wife was a stay at home mom. She got
bored and began learning stock investing. Her astute saving and
investing of his income made them spectacularly wealthy. I also
know of another stay at home mom who had a beauty salon in the
garage. Unbeknownst to her neighbors, she began dollar cost averaging
her hair cutting money into no load mutual funds in the early
eighties. They are now retired millionaires.
Dollar
cost averaging is simply investing a set amount of money, at regular
intervals, over a long period of time. The Roth IRA is an awesome
vehicle to trade single stocks where you completely avoid capital
gains taxes. Another major advantage to the Roth IRA is that since
you pay income tax before you contribute, you can take the full
contribution out completely penalty free if you run into financial
trouble and need the money Ñ you just can't touch the profits.
Right now the maximum contribution to a Roth IRA is $4,000. This
means that a husband and wife could have $40,000 socked away in
just five years and, unlike the 401(k) or standard IRA, you could
get at that saved money in a pinch.
If
selecting single stocks frightens you, then you can simply dollar
cost average into an indexed mutual fund, like the Vanguard 500
fund (VFINX), whether you are trading in a tax deferred account
like a 401(k) or a standard IRA, or if you are trading in the
tax free Roth IRA. If you decide to invest money in mutual funds
through a taxable account, then research the Schwab 1000 fund.
Schwab does everything they can to reduce your short-term capital
gains taxes. Indexed funds have the lowest expense ratio, and
the two I mentioned are no load.
What
about the third big reason for bankruptcy: medical problems? Make
sure the wage-earning spouse also receives a good medical plan.
The stay at home spouse can monitor the health plan and develop
an emergency strategy in the case of job loss. In fact, you may
be able to open a Health Savings Account that slows you to protect
yourself against medical loss while building your nest egg at
the same time. (Ed's Note: See the Health Savings Account Q&A
this month with Nobel Laureate, Dr. Gary Becker, also in this
month's NataliePace.com ezine.) The main thing is that if you plan ahead,
you are far less likely to get caught in a medical emergency without
coverage, or to be forced into bankruptcy if someone in the family
gets sick.
Another
benefit of developing a functioning family economy based on a
single wage is that the family is in a position of establishing
a fail-safe plan right from the start Ñ not after disaster happens.
When you have a great plan and the time to make sound investments,
you are far less likely to fall victim to con jobs. There are
no free lunches, and quick buck strategies usually mean that someone
takes your quick buck and runs before you can prosecute them.
Notice that one of the reasons for bankruptcy was "bad investments,"
so stay away from anything that sounds too good to be true. More
importantly, educate yourself thoroughly about the stock market
before you invest so that you really know what you are doing.
There
is no cookie cutter solution that works for everyone, but setting
your family up from the start to live on one salary may be one
of the smartest financial strategies that few financial planners
will recommend to you!
Miller, G., "The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:
Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information",
The Psychological Review, 1956, vol. 63, pp. 81-97
Dr.
Scott Brown a.k.a. "The Wallet Doctor" holds a Ph.D.
in finance from the University of South Carolina and is a professor
of finance at the University of Puerto Rico. Dr. Brown can teach
you how saving the daily price of a cup of coffee at Starbucks
can make you a millionaire in the stock market through long term
stock investing. Dr. Brown's website is: walletdoctor.com\
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|
Rotten
Rejections and Passionate Praise.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
How
to Survive a Bad Review from Your Peers.
 |
|
Chellie
Campbell, Author of Zero to Zillionaire
Photo
credit: Mary Ann Halpin
|
Eek! I just
received a scathingly bad review of my new book, Zero
to Zillionaire, from a reader on Amazon.com.
Has this
ever happened to you? Perhaps someone has hated your work, criticized
your looks, or ridiculed you in public. Does it make you feel
bad, sad, or mad? Does it make you want to:
a. Throw things
b. Call
up your friends and complain
c. Crawl into bed, turn the electric
blanket up to "mother," and cry
d. All of the above
How many
people will have to praise you passionately in order for you to
forget the sting of one miserable criticism?
a. One
b. A dozen
c. A zillion
d. It isn't possible to forget EVER
Which of the following actions do you take?
a. Write a letter to the perpetrator
protesting their criticism
b. Write an email to the world protesting
the criticism
c. Hire a hit man
d. Never write anything or to anyone
again
Are you laughing now? I hope your answer is "yes" because
that's the bottom line answer for me these days. I used to be
a person who checked answer "d," but now when people
don't like me or what I do, I laugh. They're not right and I'm
not wrongÑor vice versa. They just belong to the "Not My
People" pod.
When you stand up to be counted, you can count on two thingsÑyou
will be loved and you will be hated. Can you name one movie star,
politician, or celebrity who has a fan base that has no detractors?
So gather your fan club, your "Soul Patrol," your
peopleÑand cherish them. Remember that for every "Iron
Jimmy" that writes a review saying "One of the worst
books of its genre," there will be someone else like the
American Library Association Booklist reviewer who said
it was "A wonderful reaffirmation of what life should be."
To view the reviews of Zero to Zillionaire on Amazon, click
here: Zero
to Zillionaire.
And of course,
I'd love for my Dolphins to post some good reviews, too! And you
can comment on my Amazon BlogÑI'd love to hear from you.
Have a wonderful day, and may all your ships come in loaded with
treasure!
Cheers,
Chellie
Chellie
Campbell is the author of Zero
to Zillionaire and
The
Wealthy Spirit.
She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops
on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs
throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine at
www.chellie.com.
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|
Real
Estate Slumped in June, but REITs CEOs Have Been Cashing Out Since
2005.
by Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO & Founder, and top-ranked stock
picker.
Includes
our popular Hot News on Cool Stocks listÉ
 |
| The
Catania Mediterranean can be found at Madera at Mountain's
Edge, a Toll
Brothers community in Las Vegas, NV. |
(This is
a reprint of our mid-month report, but it includes updated quotes,
charts and info!)
As we enter
the summer doldrums for stocks, look at the following list with
an eye to locking in any profits (by selling) that you have had
a fantastic run on. You might also consider shopping around for
companies that you like, with an eye for picking them up for a
bargain (perhaps) in September. In general, however, it is probably
a better idea to focus on your mint juleps than it is to worry
too much about your stocks. That's what most of Wall Street will
be doing during July and August.
Real estate,
however, is in the hot, hot, hot season of moving, buying and
leveraging. We've been warning for over a year not to get caught
in the frenzy, and certainly not to over-leverage just when real
estate is poised to cool off. Below is a list of a number of articles
we've posted, which you need to read now! On June 15, 2006,
KB Homes reported that net orders plunged during the quarter to
9,908, a decline of 19 percent compared to 12,290 orders in the
same quarter last year. "After experiencing several years of accelerating
demand for new homes, we are now operating in a more difficult
market environment," Bruce Karatz, KB Home's chairman and chief
executive, said in a statement.
NataliePace.com warned
that real estate was headed to be a "burn-out"
sector in May of 2005. Since that time, KB Home and
Toll Brothers have dropped by almost 50% off of their 52-week
high, and the CEOs have been cashing in stock (at the high) like
there is no tomorrow. Executive insiders at Toll Brothers, including
Bruce and Robert Toll, have cashed out more than $229 million
over the past year, near the high of $100 per share (source: MSN.com).
Likewise, KB Home CEO Bruce Karatz sold $146 million over the
last year, near the 52-week high of $85.
 |
Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO & founder
#1 stock picker in the US, per TipsTraders.com |
In addition
to making sure that your portfolio is trimmed of REITs (which
were the darlings of years past, but are losing money for investors
in 2006), you need to make sure that your personal position as
a home or real estate owner is sound. Educate yourself!
1. Four
Hot Markets and Five That Are Burned Out.
By Natalie
Pace
2. Real
Estate Warning: Speculators Are Being Suckered In, While Insiders
Are Cashing Out By the Millions. By Natalie Pace
3. Buying
Real Estate in Today's Market: by Steve Dietrich, President,
Financial Research Group, and a guest lecturer at the Anderson
Graduate School of Business, UCLA.
4. Debt-Rich
America. Americans are now spending more than they are earning,
and personal savings is a negative number. Is that a temporary
dip or are we courting disaster?
5. Real
Estate Party Policy: Tempted to Crash the Real Estate Party?
5 Tips to Make Sure You Drive Home SafelyÉ By Natalie Pace, founder
NataliePace.com
6. Buy
Your Dream Home With No Money Down. Q&A with Kassie Welch,
Mortgage Financial Consultant
7. Top
10 Signs of a Bubblicious Housing Market. By Steve Dietrich,
guest lecturer at the Anderson Graduate School of Business, UCLA
and Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com
8. You
Don't Have To Be Donald Trump To Become a Real Estate Millionaire!
You Just Have To Do Your Homework and Get in the Game. By Bobbi
McKenna
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Higher
Interest Rates. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting
was June 28 and 29, 2006. Most everyone thinks the rates get
raised. Click to review the FOMC
Press Release from the May 10th, 2006 meeting. We'll
keep you posted of the increase (or not) once the news is available.
In the meantime, be aware that sellers tend to dominate the
boards with each interest rate hike.
- We'll
look to add Citigroup in September. Waiting to see what the
next Fed meetings and the summer doldrums do to the markets.
Citigroup reports 2Q earnings on July 17th. Rising
interest rates and the current M&A mania are positive for
Citigroup, but interest rate hikes, combined with high oil prices
and the summer doldrums, are tough on the markets.
- 20 BIG
WINNERS, even given the mid-May sell off!, which keeps the companies
featured in NataliePace.com at NUMBER ONE in Annualized Returns (according
to TipsTraders.com).
This hot news article still has the proud honor of featuring
twenty companies that have posted positive gains, versus just
seven that have gone south. Of the seven that have gone south,
we were most concerned with Krispy Kreme, but with the hiring
of Kraft Foods veteran Daryl Brewster as president and chief
executive that company seems to be sweetening up. Turnarounds
are difficult to stomach, even the turnaround of the most popular
sweet on the planet. Lawsuits and challenges remain. It's a
question of whether or not you believe in the donut and the
brand, now that the executive suite is in better shape. For
RELM Wireless, Sirius Satellite Radio and Yahoo, we believe
the company and the marketplace are ripe for more gains, and
have highlighted all three as potentially attractive to buyers.
Check back in September for any Back to School Stock Sales.
Still love Jet Blue as a consumer, but the sector is in trouble
until they figure out how to fly solar-powered planes. As
we head into the summer doldrums, look for some stocks to trim
back on and/or take your profits on, including Martha Stewart,
Sony, Automated Data Processing, ImClone, and LifeCell.
Companies
in the News:
Berkshire
Hathaway (BRK.A) founder and chairman Warren Buffett announced
that he will donate the majority of his $40 billion fortune, most
of which is in Berkshire stock, to charitable foundations. The
biggest recipient will be the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
of Microsoft chairman Bill Gates and his wife Melinda.
Bottom
Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon
your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio
diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher
risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns.
As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm
on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate
or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission
of providing the news and information you need to make better
choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always
consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling
any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot
Stocks
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com's article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The
companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to
continue performing well. There are never any guarantees in life,
and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified
financial planner before making any changes to your investment
strategy. You'll note, in the interest of moving from stocks to
liquidity, we've moved a lot of our featured companies from this
Buy or Hold opportunity list to our Hold or Sell opportunity list
(below).
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
6.28.06
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Bioteq
Environmental Technologies
RISK:
VERY HIGH
Penny
Stock in a great sector.
|
No
|
TSX:
BQE
(Note
this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)
|
$.80
|
$1.75
|
$2.00
$.66
|
+119%
|
|
Water
treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water
in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Jiangxi Copper
(China), Breakwater Resources, Falconbridge, and Phelps
Dodge. This company is only trading on the Toronto Stock
Exchange's TSX. Go to Bioteq.CA for more info. If your stomach
is lined with steel, this could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk
bet. On 3.29.06, Bioteq signed a million dollar deal to
clean up acid-contaminated water in CO after the FDA approved
the Bioteq technology as the preferred tech for the site.
On 4.12.06, Bioteq issued director, employee and consultant
stock options to purchase up to 800,000 common shares in
the capital of the Company at a price of $1.34 per share
expiring April 6, 2011.
|
|
Blockbuster
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
BBI
|
$3.61
|
$4.73
|
$10.65
$ 3.19
|
+31%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." Very high
risk. Distressed acquisition play in a heated up M&A
environment? On 4.10, Citigroup analyst Tony Wible said
in a client note, "While we believe the in store rental
industry continues to be under pressure from video-on-demand
and online rental services, we see Blockbuster as best positioned
in this environment." He gave BBI a Buy, with a target of
$5.75. On May 14th, Institutional holdings of
BBI increased significantly. Jules Haimovitz was added to
its board on 5.26.06. Haimovitz is currently vice chairman
and managing partner of TV production company Dick Clark
Productions Inc. He was formerly president of MGM Networks
Inc., a unit of Metro Goldwyn Mayer Inc., and served as
president and chief operating officer of TV programming
syndicator King World Productions Inc. Currently in a legal
battle with NetFlix over the right to rent movies through
the mail, which NetFlix owns the patent on.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$38.12
|
$50.20
$23.02
|
+12.5%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries,
in the right, growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
|
Disney
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$29.37
|
30.53
22.89
|
+17%
|
|
"This
season, half of the top 10 shows among young adults are
on ABC, including such great series as Lost, Desperate
Housewives, Grey's Anatomy and Extreme Makeover:
Home Edition. And Dancing with the Stars was
another great success for us, captivating audiences of all
ages." Bob Iger. Disney Shareholder Meeting. Disney/Pixar/ABC,
distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation
film company meets the most successful family media company
meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Hmmm.
Sounds like the happiest place on Earth to us. As the largest
individual stockholder, Steve Jobs may be the prime candidate
for the new Chairman of the Board. "I'm thoroughly pleased
with what ABC did and we're going to do more of it as a
company on other sites," Bob Iger said.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
|
$77.79
|
$100.20
$75.58
|
+476%
|
|
Great
Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Biotechnology
is a volatile sector. Popular. #2 biotechnology company.
But very pricey. P/E: 60.80.
|
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$11.25
|
$27.27
|
$41.66
$12.04
|
+143%
|
|
Any
troubles in the already tight metals market could send prices
even higher than they currently are. 2006 production at
Goldcorp is expected to reach 2 million ounces at a total
cash cost of less than $150 per ounce, with 2.4 million
ounces produced in 2007. As of Dec. 31, 2005, Goldcorp,
including the Nevada Placer Dome interest, had 25.3 million
ounces of Proven and Probable reserves. On 5.15.06, Goldcorp
announced record net earnings of $$92.4 million ($0.91 per
share) for 1Q 2006, an increase of 3-fold over 29.5 million
last year. 2005 gold production increased to 295,100 ounces,
compared with 275,400 ounces in 2004. Gold sales were 288,400
ounces, compared with 217,500 ounces in 2005, at a total
cash cost of $88 per ounce.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$401.58
|
$475.11
$172.57
|
+372%
|
|
Google
joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold
for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price.
If want to buy an IT play that is trading at a better value,
look at Yahoo, Sohu and/or some of the other IT media companies
(Disney and News Corp.), all of which are listed here. If
you've quadrupled your money, profit taking and capital
gains are attractive these days. Announced 4Q earnings on
1.31.06. Missed expectations, and investors panicked
(as we'd warned they would). Google shares sank 12 percent
in after-hours trading to $379.00, losing roughly $15.3
billion from their $128 billion market capitalization. Google
dropped as low as $344.20 on 2.13.06. Very volatile. High
price and high P/E of 68.80 (compared to Yahoo's P/E of
24.30). Google reported revenues of $2.25 billion for the
quarter that ended March 31, 2006, an increase of 79% compared
to the first quarter of 2005 and an increase of 17% compared
to the fourth quarter of 2005. Traffic acquisition costs,
or TAC. In the first quarter of 2006, TAC totaled $723 million,
or 32% of advertising revenues.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$7.71
|
12.11
4.40
|
-24.5%
|
|
In
turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows. Hired Kraft Foods
veteran Daryl Brewster as president and chief executive
in March 2006 sparking a rally. Taken off S&P Midcap
400 effective 10.27.05. "We are taking steps to turn around
the Company," said Daryl Brewster, President and Chief Executive
Officer. "We have filed our fiscal 2005 financial statements.
We have reached an initial settlement of the ERISA class
action. We continue to see growth in our international markets,
including two new international development agreements.
We are also seeing signs of stability in the United States."
The Company expects to report a net loss for the first quarter
of fiscal 2007.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
The
Venetian, Sands Macao
(1st
mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$68.44
|
73.13
29.08
|
+83%
|
|
Major
Growth stock. The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands
Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates
at the Venetian. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is also making deals
with other Macao hotels to manage their casinos and show
rooms, including the Four Seasons, Intercontinental Hotel,
Holiday Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La
Hotel Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai
Strip in Macao. Earnings on 5.4.06: Net revenue for 1Q 2006
increased 31.3% to a record $530.4 million compared to $403.8
million in the prior year's quarter. Net income in the 1st
Q of 2006 was $121.8 million, or $0.34 per diluted share,
compared to $7.1 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, a
year ago. Room revenues increased 5.8 percent to $91.1 million
compared to $86.1 million. The company's casino revenues
in Macau soared 63 percent to $278.2 million compared to
$171 million during the same period last year due to market
demand and capacity increases at The Sands. Completing $2.5
billion debt facility to develop "Asia's Las Vegas™"
in Macao.
|
|
NetGear
RISK:
MEDIUM
Trading
in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$21.13
|
$25.73
$12.96
|
+70%
|
|
Award
Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur
of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear is on Business Week's
Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), and NetGear
was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business Excellence.
The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available for pre-order
online for a price of $249.99, with a shipment schedule
of late June. Skype currently has 100 million registered
users, according to the NetGear press release, and the NetGear
phone is the first Skype Wifi phone. An October report from
Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households
will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband
phone service by 2010. Judges from the IT Industry and CRN
readers rated NETGEAR Best in Service and Support among
crowded networking category that included companies worldwide
with both voice and data legacies in Dec. 2005. Quarterly
earnings on 5.12.06: $127 million in revenue. Net income
was $9.8 million versus $7.86 million a year ago. According
to CEO Patrick Lo, they have 58 new products. CFO Jonathan
Mather is leaving on 10.31.06 to pursue other opportunities
closer to his home base in Southern California, according
to the company press release. A replacement is being searched
for, and a smooth transition is anticipated.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Owns
Fox, MySpace and DirecTv.
Dividends
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
NWS
|
$15.88
|
$19.65
|
20.57
13.94
|
+24%
|
|
Featured
article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol.
2, iss. 10. Investors are starting to take notice of this
undervalued juggernaut, especially now that MySpace revenues
are starting to hit the books. MySpace is 2nd
in page views online, behind Yahoo!, which should start
translating into a major jump in ad revenue this year, especially
since MySpace's core demographic is the coveted 16-34 year
olds. MySpace is now a Top 10 Global Internet Brand. Media
is in favor for 2006, according to Smith Barney analysts.
Murdoch has been quoted as saying that MySpace and IGN Entertainment
will be his leading drivers of growth in coming years. Mobizzo,
Fox's mobile network, which pioneered text voting on American
Idol, launched on 2.27.06, and will have micro-pay downloads
of films and TV (including Napoleon Dynamite, the Fox cult
film), games music and more. $59.58 billion market cap on
sales of $24.65 billion, vs. Google's $119 billion MC on
sales of $6.1 billion. 3Q revenues (5.10.06) increased to
$6.2 Billion; Net Income More Than Doubled, to $820 Million.
As Rupert noted, "MySpace expanded to over 70 million
registered users, solidifying its prominence as one of the
fastest growing sites on the Internet. We also launched
Mobizzo, a comprehensive new destination for mobile content,
putting us in the vanguard of this exploding new platform."
Rupert has some talented, innovative leaders under his aegis,
and they are hitting home profits. News Corp. has completed
$2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated
last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0
billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly reinforces
our view that repurchases of News Corporation shares are
among the best uses of our cash in today's environment,"
according to Rupert.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$7.49
|
$9.25
$3.90
|
+311%
|
|
It
was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's
products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate
on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's
Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's
share price. Net revenue for the year ending 1.31.06 was
$61.077 million, 61% higher than last year's net revenue
of $37.8 million. Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of Opsware
Inc. reported on 5.24.06, "We are raising our revenue estimate
to $100 million this year based on our accelerating pipeline
and the high impact of our upcoming product releases." Unfortunately,
the net loss also doubled, from $7.2 million last year to
$14.75 million in 2006. Analysts are mixed on whether the
Cisco deal will bring profitability to this six-year old
company that has never turned a profit. . ThinkEquity analyst
Ranjini Chandirakanthan lifted 2007 revenue estimates to
$100.8 million from $94.1 million, and predicted that Opsware
will "be one of the fastest-growing companies in our space."
Jefferies & Co. analyst Katherine Egbert writes that
"The company has yet to demonstrate an ability to profitably
scale its business despite improving services gross margins
and strong license sales." Marc Andreessen is Opsware Inc.'s
largest individual beneficial shareholder with approximately
10.1 million shares beneficially owned. He cashed out $16
million (or about 2 million shares) at $8.00/share this
year. May 24, 2006 earnings: revenue grows to $22 million,
up 74% year-over-year (most of it "non-EDS").
GAAP net loss in the first quarter was $(5.8) million or
$(0.06) per share
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
|
Yes
|
OSIP
|
$63.59
|
$32.41
|
47.65
20.81
|
-49%
|
|
Morgan
Stanley's Steven Harr has raised the target price to $42
for OSIP, and the StockScouter rating has jumped to a 10.
Harr anticipates about $1.3 million in 2006 royalties for
OSIP's Diabetes drug, with royalties expanding to about
$43.8 million by 2010 (source: AP). On 5.8.06, OSIP reported
total revenues of $116.4 million for the first quarter of
2006, an increase of $97.4 million (or over 500%) compared
to revenues of $19.1 million for the first quarter of 2005,
primarily due to sales of Tarceva and Macugen. Total worldwide
net sales of Tarceva for the first quarter of 2006 were
$133 million. Total U.S. Macugen sales were $51 million
for the first quarter of 2006. The net loss was -$17.9 million,
down from a net loss of -$32.5 million last year. Annual
shareholder's meeting was on June 14, 2006. On Feb. 9th,
the BOD made the bylaws more shareholder friendly, in the
hopes of attracting back investors. Genetic based "cancer
pill." 1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved
Tarceva for lung cancer last November. Canadian regulators
approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on
9.21. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. FDA approved
Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05. Submitted
new drug application to Japanese FDA on 4.17.06. Partner
of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP has had more movement
in the executive suite than is desirable and has never lived
up, in the business management department, to the efficacy
of its drug. Hang on for the conference pop, but keep a
close eye out for a profitable exit or for a new, improved
attitude from the top management?
|
|
RELM
wireless
10.70
P/E
Micro
Cap
88.73
Million
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
RWC
|
$7.35
|
$5.96
|
11.70
1.90
|
-19%
|
|
RELM
dropped in early May on heavy institutional investor selling
(manic hedge funds). RELM Wireless Corporation RWC announced
on 5.18.06 that it has received orders from a federal government
agency valued at $2.3 million. Of this total, $1.5 million
was for digital P25-compliant radio products. The company
expects to ship these orders in the second quarter of 2006.
According to Feltl & Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM
has just 1% share of a domestic market worth $1.9 billion
(and the global market is eight times larger), so there
is plenty of room for growth. Coverage on MoneyCentral.msn.com
on 1.18.06 means it might come up on more investors' radars.
In addition to providing communications for national security
needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at
hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines
and chemical plants. For the first quarter ended March 31,
2006, sales increased approximately 29.6% to $7.2 million
from $5.5 million for the same quarter last year. Pre-tax
income increased 175% to approximately $1.4 million from
$0.51 million for the same quarter last year. Net income
for the first quarter was approximately $0.86 million, or
$0.06 per diluted share, compared to net income of $0.33
million, or $0.02 per diluted share, for the same quarter
last year.
|
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$198.47
|
253.33
114.90
|
121%
|
|
Ollanta
Humala was defeated by President-Elect Alan Garcia, giving
gold miners in Peru a big win. (Humala was going to nationalize
the mines.) Rio Tinto has mines in Brazil, Chile and Argentina,
but not Peru. Most of RTP's mines are in Australia and the
US. Any troubles in the already tight metals market could
send prices even higher than they currently are. Metals
demand is huge; supply is limited; stock price is high.
Analysts say pressure on price should continue on high demand
in China and Asia, as well as the high cost of mining. Due
to the commodities crunch, gear, personnel and materials
are in high demand and at a premium cost, however Rio Tinto
is a very well managed corporation. Finds, processes and
mines minerals: copper, iron, coke (from coal), aluminum,
titanium dioxide and diamonds, and has increased investment
in the Cortez Hills of Nevada. Rio Tinto has been added
to Jim Jubak's 50 Best Stocks in the World List (eff. 9.05).
Great press usually means more buyers. Hang on, and enjoy
the dividends, but don't get sucked into buying high.
As long as Jubak keeps RTP rich in headlines, expect investors
to keep buying high. Bought back $378 million in shares
during 1Q 2006, with $2.5 billion planned for 2006/2007.
RTP bought back $972 million in shares in 2005/2006.
|
|
Sirius
$6.3
Bil Market Cap
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
SIRI
|
$6.00
|
$4.58
|
7.98
3.60
|
-24%
|
|
Revenue
tripled to $126 Million 1Q 2006, and Sirius ended the quarter
with 4,077,747 subscribers, the 2nd quarter it
has led XM with new subscriber adds. Loss was -$458.5 million,
or ($0.33) per share, which CEO Mel Karmazin says is attributable
to Non-cash equity charges which do not impact cash flow.
He sees spectacular prospects both near and long term for
Sirius. Sirius signed Stern and aired the Super Bowl; XM
signed Oprah. The head-to-head competition in the U.S. continues,
with Sirius gaining serious ground over XM. Howard Stern
has paid off (big-time) in subscribers and online hits for
Sirius, but not new investors (yet) for Sirius. Sirius announced
on 12.27.05 that it topped 3 million subscribers, and then
surpassed 4 million subs on 3.20.06, and is on track to
finish the year strong with over 6.2 million subscribers,
yet the share price is 50% off of its 52-week high. XM Satellite
Radio ended 2005 with 5.9 million subscribers and is projecting
9 million by year's end. XM radio is installed in GM cars;
GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues.
Could impact XM. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard
on SL and CL models for 2007. Nielsen//NetRatings report
said the online traffic to Sirius' grew 188%, to 1.9 million
in March 2006 from 666,000 unique visitors in the year-ago
period. That beats XMSR traffic, which turned in 1.69 million
in unique visitors in March.
|
|
Sohu
918.7
Mil Market Cap
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$24.66
|
27.42
14.25
|
+41%
|
|
On
6.12.06, Sohu entered into a multi-year advertising agreement
with leading online retailer, Joyo.com (owned by Amazon).
Quarter 2006 Revenues were a record US $31.3 million, up
32% year-on-year. Net income was US$6.0 million. "China
Internet is the most dynamic industry within the world's
fastest-growing major economy, in our analysis," according
to Michael Tieu, a Brean Murray Carret & Co. analyst.
Tieu noted that while China's online advertising market
is a rounding error of that of the United States, its ad
sales are forecast to grow 40 percent a year to about $3
billion in 2010. See NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and
volume 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Financial
Times ranked Sohu in Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate
Brands on 9.6.05. (6 days after our article.) SOHU was selected
as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS)
for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. See Sohu CEO in an exclusive
interview on the Forbes.com Video Network (with NataliePace.com
CEO, Natalie Pace) by going to the NataliePace.com home page and
clicking on the Forbes.com logo. Sohu Is offering FIFA World
Cup 2006 online video content in China to Internet and mobile
phone users (a large segment of the Chinese connected population).
Could be some bumps in the road between now and Beijing
Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it, with
China still growing at over 9% in real GDP per year.
|
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
Vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$23.87
|
$30.15
$12.00
|
+15%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why
Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to
diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the
emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are
stalling in economic growth.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
USGL
|
$5.05
|
$7.11
|
$10.30
$.35
|
+41%
|
|
See
the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in
NataliePace.com ezine, vol. 3, iss. 2. This is a gold exploration
company that is being traded off the big boards. If the
choice is between this and the craps table, you might have
better odds here (and more fun if McEwen strikes gold.)
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time. They
are digging to find a new reserve. U.S. Gold closed the
private placement of 16,700,000 subscription receipts at
a price of US$4.50 for aggregate gross proceeds of US$75.15
million on Feb. 22, 2006. As of 4.14.06, there were 50 million
shares outstanding, with a market capitalization of US $409.5
million.
|
|
Verisign,
Vol.
2, iss. 9
|
No
|
VRSN
|
$21.91
|
$21.57
|
$36.09
$17.02
|
flat
|
|
On
6.9.06, VeriSign and EBay announced that VRSN will power
the text message alerts for the giant IT company. VeriSign
reported total revenue of $374 million for the first quarter
of 2006, and GAAP net income of $16 million for 1Q 2006
on 4.20.06. Repurchased 9 million shares for value of $215
million in the 3rd Q. Revenue shortfall in the
mobile content area is expected to improve, according to
CEO. Michelle Guthrie, CEO of STAR Group, Ltd. (a division
of News Corp.) was named to the Board on 12.19.05. Purchased
m-Qube, a leading mobile channel enabler that helps companies
develop, deliver and bill for mobile content, applications
and messaging services on 3.20.06. Now has the digital content
platform to enable carriers, Internet portals, media companies
and consumer brands to provide anytime, anywhere, any device
delivery of mobile and broadband services.
|
|
Yahoo
Vol.
2, iss. 10
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$33.84
|
$31.87
|
43.66
29.75
|
-5.8%
|
|
Yahoo
is the #1 web site, with more traffic, page views and time
online than MSN or Google. Revenues were $1,567 million
for the first quarter of 2006, a 34 percent increase compared
to $1,174 million for the same period of 2005. Net income
was $160 million, compared to $205 million or $0.14 per
diluted share for the same period of 2005 (4.18.06 earnings
report.) Don't be fooled by headlines that focus only on
search. Yahoo is still number one on the worldwide web,
though Google and Microsoft have the worldwide war chests,
with market caps of $129.9 billion and $281.9 billion respectively,
compared to Yahoo's $46.63 billion. So why is Google's market
capitalization over twice the size of Yahoo's? Do investors
really think Google is twice as valuable? Reuters reported
on 4.14.06 that Terry Semel, who took over as CEO of Yahoo
five years ago, cashed in Yahoo shares worth appx. $429
million between 2003 and 2005.
|
|
We'll
look to add Citigroup in September. (Refer to the M&A
Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup's
appeal.) Waiting to see what the next Fed meetings and the
summer do to the markets. Citigroup reports 2Q earnings
on July 17th. Raising interest rates and the
current M&A mania are positive for Citigroup, but interest
rate hikes, combined with high oil prices and the summer
doldrums, are tough on the markets. Price: 6.19.06 = $47.78É
|
Cooling
Off Stocks (that may be in Profit-Taking Range).
Note: We may look to add some of these great companies to our
Hot News list again, if the price point should become attractive
(as we did NetGear in March). The companies listed in bold have
recently been added to this cooling off list. Investors who have
them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider
whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short
the position and/or simply take a long-range view of weathering
the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
6.28.06
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Airlines
|
No
|
AMR
|
$24.05
|
--
|
29.32
10.00
|
--
|
|
In
the most recent earnings report, Delta Airlines, which is
currently operating under bankruptcy protection, reported
owing $18.695 billion in total liabilities subject to compromise.
Of that $8.873 billion is owed to its pension plan and retirees,
$5.768 billion in debt, $2.772 billion for aircraft leases,
and $1.282 billion in accounts payable. Continental owes
over $10 billion in current liabilities, long-term debt
and pension funding. American Airlines' financial obligations
surpass $26.6 billion, including $5.1 billion owed to pension
plans (which is more than AMR's market capitalization),
according to the earnings report filed with the SEC on April
20, 2006. Frankly, it seems impossible for American or Continental
to get profitable without restructuring under Chapter 11.
The question might be when more than if, and I wouldn't
bank on the fall of American arriving before we're well
into winter. (Continental, though they owe less, could drop
first, as it appears that American Airlines' strategy is
to hold out and be the last to go.) American Airlines has
such a strong brand, and so few investors are aware of the
depth of their debt, that AMR tends to run up on any good
news in the sector. It's not a slam-dunk put.
|
|
Automatic
Data Processing
|
No
|
ADP
|
$46.84
|
$44.79
|
48.11
40.37
|
-5%
|
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ" Morgan Stanley analyst David Togut lists
ADP as "overweight." Putting ADP on this list
because the markets are so high and ADP isn't showing legs
as a breakout performer. For traders, ROI might be found
in a more exciting sector/company. For buy and hold, ADP
has some interesting new business ideas, including expanding
their brokerage services, that might be interesting.
|
|
Gevity
Human Resources
|
No
|
GVHR
|
$26.48
|
$25.24
|
$30.19
$15.45
|
-5%
|
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ" Roy C. King became President and COO on 12.20.05,
responsible for sales, marketing and biz development. Participated
in the NASDAQ inaugural Small-Cap Investor Conference on
2.7.06 in London. Missed earnings on 2.28.06, but expects
double-digit growth in revenues, client employee count and
earnings in 2006. Increased dividend and plans to buy back
a million shares in 2006. 1Q earnings included an increase
in the total number of client employees to 136,200, an increase
of 8.6% over 125,400 client employees at the end of the
first quarter of 2005. Revenue was up 10% and EPS was up
15%, but missed earnings by a penny. Putting GVHR on this
list because the markets are so high and the sector isn't
showing legs as a breakout performer. GVHR may be positioning
itself as a growth leader of the group, however.
|
|
ImClone
(makers
of Erbitux)
See
volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article
Trading
near 52 week low.
|
No
|
IMCL
|
$34.48
|
$38.76
|
42.75
29.51
|
+12%
|
|
Forced
to pay the IRS $32 million to settle an employment audit
(3.16.06). Hired investment bank Lazard LLC to shop the
company to suitors and appointed board member Joseph L.
Fischer as interim CEO. Fischer was Former Senior Vice President,
Dial Corporation and Former Group President, Corporate Controller,
Johnson & Johnson. The FDA approved the use of Erbitux
on head and neck cancer on 3.1.06. Results from study
are impressive and the EU commission just received a positive
opinion from their committee, on 2.23.06, to grant approval
in Europe. New panitumumab drug from Amgen is predicted
to gain market share of colorectal cancer in about three
to four years, though it is not expected to gain approval
and product launch before 3Q 2006. Swissmedic, the Swiss
agency for therapeutic products, approved Erbitux for head
and neck cancer on 12.22.05. IMC-11F8, a new drug that blocks
the activation of epidermal growth factor receptor, should
have its clinical trial enrolled by the 2nd half
of this year. IMClone just won the right to market outside
the US and Canada in an arbitration with Merck. Erbitux
is one of the most expensive cancer drugs available. Pressure
on bringing the price of Erbitux more in line with the other
gene-based cancer treatments could be forthcomingÉ
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
Price
12.28.05:
$19.21
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$10.25
|
$29.59
|
$30.68
$7.18
|
+188%
|
|
The
FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue"
on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and
took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q to reflect the recall.
LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing,
however the story on some of the unscreened and untested
tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not
over. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly
received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the
impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. According
to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening
the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations.
The Alloderm product is in high demand, but the potential
fallout of this unfortunate turn of events is more than
most $688 million companies can take. $15.5 million in
insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months,
most recent sales occurred in March '06. Product revenues
for the fourth quarter were $27.0 million, up 69%, compared
to $16.0 million reported for the same period in 2004. Product
revenues for full year 2005 were $93.3 million, up 59%,
compared to $58.8 million in 2004. Alloderm accounted for
$73.8 million of the sales. Net income for 2005 was $12.0
million, or $.36 per diluted share, compared to net income
of $7.2 million, or $.22 per diluted share income in the
prior year.
|
Martha
Stewart Omniliving, Sony and Sunoco were taken off of the Cooling
Off Stocks list effective 5.12.06. MSO was slightly down. Sony
and Sunoco had both had GREAT runs!
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
Other
articles of interest:
Affordable
Health Care.
by Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, Economics.
Real
Estate (REITs)
Rules
Wall Street, but For How Long? Market Update. By Paul Woods, President
& CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
From
Flipping Burgers to
Owning
Your Own Island.
By Natalie
Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and founder. How tithing 10% to Your Nest Egg
will make you a millionaire, even if you're only bringing home
$30,000.
Investing
is Not Surgery.
Brokers
are Not Surgeons. Why wise, informed, personal, daily, healthy
choices keep you fiscally fit. By Natalie Pace, NataliePace.com CEO and
founder.
Are
GM, Delphi and Delta the Beginning of Japan-like Stagnation for
the U.S.? Q&A with Nobel
Laureate Economist Gary Becker. By Natalie Pace.
Want
a Raise Now?
It
Could Be a Check Mark Away. by Maya Patel.
The
Eastern European Renaissance.
This
Year's "It" Investment. Article and Stock Report Card by Natalie
Pace.
Leave
Your Job, Not
Your 401(k) By
Maya Patel. Discount Brokerages Make
Rollover IRAs Easy.
NASD
Investor Alert: Putting Too Much Stock in Your Company - A
401(k) Problem
What
the Mutual Fund Salesman
Forgot to Mention. by Paul Woods, President & CEO
of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com LLC does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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