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Vol.3 Issue 12 December 1st, 2006
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Month:
"Between one-half and two-thirds of U.S. currency is held abroad. As a consequence, cross-border currency flows, which can be estimated only imprecisely, may lead to sharp changes in currency outstanding and in the monetary base that are largely unrelated to domestic conditions."

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Speaking at the Fourth ECB Central Banking Conference
in Frankfurt, Germany on November 10, 2006.


Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign to Empower Africa.

by Natalie Pace.

Including a Retail Apparel Report Card.

Inspi(RED): Steven Spielberg. Desi(RED): Penelope Cruz. Uncenso(RED): Chris Rock. Discove(RED): Dakota Fanning. Empowe(RED): Mary J. Blige. What's your word? Gap, in alliance with (PRODUCT) RED, has wrapped celebrity and cause in a holiday package for consumers, but are they buying it?

(PRODUCT) RED is a big part of an even larger plan by Bono (rock star) and Bobby Shriver (Kennedy blue blood), the founders of DATA.org* to bring "people and organizations together to stop the spread of AIDS and extreme poverty in Africa." According to the organization's mission statement, DATA is not "charity," but is promoting equality and justice through collaborations with government officials, for-profit corporations, celebrities and consumers. Bono, Bobby Shriver, Gap, Oprah, Apple, MySpace, American Express, Motorola, Converse, Emporio Armani, Penelope Cruz, Steven Spielberg, Don Cheadle, Jennifer Garner, Mary J. Blige, Apolo Ohno and more have all allied to donate 50% of (PRODUCT) RED profits to the Global Fund to assist women and children living with AIDS in Africa.

*DATA: Debt. Aids. Trade. Africa.

Photo: Penelope Cruz
Photo Credit: Gap

So, (RED) is the new green (in every sense of the word), and just in time for holiday shopping! While some retail clothing manufacturers, like Bebe, are still embroiled in disputes with disgruntled workers, others, like Gap, are proactively leading the charge to empower the impoverished. (Refer to the Retail Apparel Report Card for more details on which retail apparel companies might, allegedly, have been naughty, and which have been nice.)

Billboards are plastered with provocative photos of Penelope Cruz and Don Cheadle in the new Gap advertising campaign for (PRODUCT) RED, and Oprah and Bono launched the campaign by buying (RED) products on her popular daytime show. However, the real celebrities for (PRODUCT) RED are not the Hollywood power elite, but the formerly emaciated women and children of Africa, who are now leading healthy, happy and robust lives, thanks to HIV medication, provided by the Global Fund (and other organizations). To see/read about the dramatic difference that treatment makes, check out the Time article, ÒAn African Miracle

According to the Center for Disease Control, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for approximately 64% of people living with AIDS, even though the region represents less than 10% of the world population. "Effective prevention and treatment of HIV infection with antiretroviral therapy (ART) are now available," according to the CDC's August 11, 2006 report on The Global HIV/AIDS Pandemic, but comprehensive programs are still needed to get it to the people who need it most. Enter RED. That is, if the world's consumers pony up the green.

Where are the consumers?
(RED) is designed to put partners in the black, but unfortunately sales at Gap are still slipping. On November 2, 2006, Gap announced that same store sales in October decreased 4%. Analysts and executives alike had every reason to believe that headlines of Oprah and Bono shopping for (PRODUCT) RED, at the launch of the project on her show on October 13th, would be enough to turn the tide for Gap. It wasn't.

(PRODUCT) RED was featured on the home page of MySpace for the entire day on Thanksgiving. Myspace's message couldn't have been a stronger plug -- "You're going to buy [t-shirts and shoes] any way. Why not buy (PRODUCT) RED? Collectively, we can do good in a big way!" MySpace's JOIN (RED) page had 574,149 friends as of November 27, 2006. While more than half a million seems like an impressive number, MySpace has 134 million registered users. That equals less than half of a percent return on the Thanksgiving feature, which is pretty good for Internet marketing returns, but certainly not an overwhelming success, especially given the exposure and reach of MySpace these days.

Photo: Don Cheadle
Photo Credit: Gap

So, is (PRODUCT) RED in the slow burn stage, before the holiday storm? Many people still don't quite understand what the campaign is all about. Michelle Rhodes, a Washington University medical student, asked, "Is that a cardio vascular campaign?" Only one out of six teenagers and college students who were interviewed for this article knew anything about (PRODUCT) RED. (On the other hand, the half million registered users on (PRODUCT) RED's MySpace page are already avid fans, posting thousands of comments and promising to buy the product for themselves and as holiday gifts.)

Will Bono and Bobby's baby save the world? It's a question of how shoppers vote with their dollars. Two visionaries and a host of celebrities and corporations are giving the developed world the opportunity to be a part of the solution to Africa's crisis of AIDS and poverty. This holiday buying season will determine how well that message has been received and supported.

Shares of Gap (NYSE: GPS) were trading at pre-(RED) prices of $19.02 on November 28, 2006. If you're banking that Bono and Bobby Shriver, both masters of headlines and promotions, can attract more buyers, (RED) products may enable Gap to experience its first quarter of increased sales after seven consecutive periods of decline. Of course, that still doesn't fix the declining sales at Old Navy (which is also owned by Gap), but it is a step in the right direction, and it might come as a pleasant surprise to Wall Street. We're adding Gap to the Hot News list this month.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. NataliePace.com is not a brokerage, does not make buy/sell recommendations and does not sell any financial services products. Consult your personal financial planner before making any changes to your investing portfolio.


Great Gifts: Want to Know What Your Lover Really Wants?

Check out our survey results.

The Parker Palm Springs

What's the perfect gift for your guy? For women? Well, according to last year's NataliePace.com survey, it isn't crock-pots and garden tools. Women want spa gift certificates and couple's getaways, while guys want - surprise! - electronics.

Best Gift for Guys 2005

Best Gift for Women 2005

31%

iPod Nano or other music device

23%

Spa gift certificate (massage, facial)

21%

Plasma TV

20%

Couple's Get Away Vacation

14%

Satellite Radio

15%

Clothes

9%

Angelina Jolie

7%

Jewelry

7%

Massage & Pampering 

7%

Appliances and House Furnishings (from couches to cuisinarts)

Source: NataliePace.com.

(Go to www.NataliePace.com to cast your vote this year, so that men and women across the U.S. can get their gift-giving right this year, and no one is stuck with a rooster cookie jar, Mickie Mouse tie or Seinfeld DVD that they don't want.)

Now, since you know where to get your favorite electronics device and are smart enough to ask your loved one the exact brand that he desires (you don't want to give XM Satellite Radio to a Howard Stern/Sirius Satellite Radio lover), we'll focus our tips on thebest gifts for women - spas and couple's get away vacations.

NataliePace.com's Best Get Away (with spa facilities): The Parker Palm Springs
Some people just get it right, and the management team responsible for the Parker experience is quite simply the Muhammad Ali of hotels. They work exceptionally hard and smart behind the scenes to make mastery look beautiful. So, trust that your every need is not only provided for; it has been anticipated, and is ready at your beck and call.

Now for the unique allure of the Parker PS. It is retro risqué, uptown, not uptight, architecturally whimsical, a taste delight and you are treated like a guest of the estate, i.e. spoiled, flirted with and fawned over. Whether you have two days or a week, trust that time will slow down, that you can renew/revive your soul, challenge yourself or refuse to do anything at all, and even risk a spiked lemonade and game of Petanque before noon. (Where else can you play Petanque?) If you want a getaway with kids, the Gene Autry house, which is in the center of the Parker PS estate, is perfect, with the 2nd bedroom located far enough away on the other side that your kids and nanny can make all the noise they want (and so can you) without being a bother.

Everything at the Parker PS is designed to invite you to "live a little" beyond your comfort zone. In the yoga class, I thought the instructor might be kidding with the positions he was challenging his beginning students to assume. (My head stand ended up in a back bend, and trust me, everyone in the class took at least one tumble.) What was most refreshing was that I was in a class that was actually challenging me, rather than holding back, worried that I might sue if I pushed myself beyond my capabilities. I thought at first it might just be a renegade instructor, but soon learned that pushing you a little beyond your blasé day-to-day existence is part of the Parker Palm Springs ethos.

Excerpts from the Parker PS Manifesto:
We believe in the American country club experience: mixed doubles, a long steam and a stiff cocktail.
We believe the last thing a woman wants to see while having a treatment is a man; so we maintain a separation of the sexes.
We believe newlyweds are too naïve to recognize this, and the elderly too old to recognize each other, so we have couples treatment rooms.
We believe in inner beauty. But, do what you can on the outside.
We believe in good sport as well as fitness: Petanque and Pastis, Pimms Cup and Croquet, Snooker and single malt whiskey.
We believe you are only young onceÉbut you can be immature forever.

The tennis court is clay. The pastimes include Petanque and Croquet. At breakfast you can have foie gras. The lemonade stands leave you feeling a little frisky (Pastis or champagne spiked lemonades.). Dinner is served in a risqué Ô70s setting that looks straight out of a Saturday Night Live spoof of the Playboy mansion. As Lynne Puttman-Dibley, Parker Palm Springs' human resources director puts it, "Mrs. Parker has the culture of a queen, but she can also drink with the sailors."

When I mention the drill sergeant yoga instructor, Lynne responds, "If we can have you experience one little thing you've never done before, that's excellent." I'm sure she didn't mean back surgery, but how refreshing it is to be in a resort that focuses on giving you a memorable experience, at the risk of enraging their legal team? Later that evening, a friend and I swung our legs freely in the "bird cage" chairs that are in the lounge fire pit area. There was a couple making out on the sofa across from us. I got the feeling that we were having more fun.

Norma's, the breakfast restaurant at the Parker PS, is the best breakfast on the planet., whether you're an egg person, a lox and bagel person, a crab cakes person, a waffle person, a parfait person or a foie gras addict. If you're in the Palm Springs vicinity, whether you are staying at the Parker or not, make sure you make a reservation. You'll want to have dinner at Mr. Parker's as well. More than the food, consider it a field trip back to the Ô70s, when life was a little bit moreÉ daring. You'll delight in the handsome, charming maitre d'. The motto in Mr. Parker's is, "If Andy Warhol would like it, it's here!"

For other gift and/or get away ideas, please check out the NataliePace.com Shopping Mall, located on the home page at www.NataliePace.com. For jewelry, there is nothing more priceless than Sculpture to Wear. For cultural experiences, there is nothing more delightful than the Los Angeles Opera, under the executive direction of Placido Domingo. Our breakout artist is Michel Tabori. (If you purchase his "Forest Triptych" before I do, I'll cry.) For spas, it's hard to beat Burke Williams. These and more unique and memorable gift ideas are just a click away in the NataliePace.com shopping mall. You might conveniently leave the page open (or select NataliePace.com as your home page), so that your lover will know where to shop for your gift!

Parker Palm Springs
4200 East Palm Canyon Drive
Palm Springs, California 92264
760.770.5000
http://www.TheParkerPalmSprings.com/new/index.htm

Toys for Tots:
During the holiday season, let us not overlook those who are not in a position to give or receive gifts. NataliePace.com continues to donate 10% of our subscription sales to women and children in need. While you're planning your gift-giving budget, why not set aside 10% (or $100 minimum) to celebrate the holidays as they were truly intended - to share in peace and love. Below are three organizations that would love to receive your support this holiday season.

CoAbode.org. Single Mothers house sharing. This simple, profound solution helps single mothers to double their spending power, cut their expenses in half and have more quality time with their children. CoAbode serves women throughout the U.S. and Canada.
ParaLosNinos.org. Charter school and support services for families living on and around Skid Row in Los Angeles, California. This program has become so successful that it is being modeled around the world.
Department of Children's Services. This governmental agency, which is usually a county service, helps find homes for abused and neglected children. They also run Teen Homes, which are group facilities for teens preparing to live on their own. The link will take you to the Los Angeles County Department of Children and Family services. To find a service in your area, just search on Google with the phrase, "Department of Children's Services." These children and teens delight in your generosity, and love to receive your gift of new toys, clothing and electronics.


Great Gift Idea:

Massage Oil for Guys and Sugar Scrub For Your Girl Friends

Cherry Rose Sugar Scrub

Ingredients
8 oz. avocado oil
8 oz. almond oil
8 oz. grapeseed oil
4 oz. jojoba oil
4 oz. Vitamin E oil
ý tsp. grapefruit seed extract
3 oz. maraschino cherries (with fluid)
5 drops concentrated rose oil
4 - 24 oz. packages of turbinado sugar (for the sugar scrub only)

Directions:
Puree cherries. Set aside. Mix oils together. Add 5 drops of rose essence, grapefruit seed extract and blended cherries.
Measure sugar in desired container. Pour sugar in a separate bowl. Add oil in a ratio of about 2 parts sugar to 1 part oil mixture. (You want enough oil to cover but not drown the sugar.) Fold the oil into the sugar mixture with a minimum amount of strokes (to keep the sugar granules from dissolving). Pour the scrub into the container.
Decorate the container, and include the recipe when you give the scrub away as a gift.

Where to buy the oils and containers:
Trader Joe's has great prices on Vitamin E and jojoba oils. If you purchase the other oils through a grocery store (like a Coop or a natural food store), you'll likely pay less than if you go to a designer potions and oils shop. Also, I raid the local dollar store for plastic containers, and use my color printer to print out the labels!

Other tips:
This recipe uses only the finest oils. The sugar exfoliates the skin, while the oils replenish and soften. Designer scrubs can cost more than $25 for a small container, and they often rely upon inexpensive oil bases, which aren't as luxurious for the skin and leave an oily residue. I prefer sugar to salt, since so many of us wax or shave.:-) This does leave a slippery residue in the shower, so take care to wipe down the tub after using!

I love making a batch of these scrubs for my girlfriends. Let's face it. Women work very hard, and deserve to get a great, unexpected, homemade gift. And when you spoil your friends with something made with your own hands, they remember it!

Massage Oil for Guys

Use the same recipe above. Substitute a more manly scent instead of the rose essence. I've found that lavender, rosemary and even melon-cucumber can work, but you know your beloved boy best! Pick a scent that will be appealing to him, and make sure that you've got an evening set aside to show him how it works!


10 Tips to Stay Trim During the Holidays.

by J.J. Flizanes.

Remember that exercise releases the body's "happy" drug - Serotonin!

1. Family get togethers do not have to mean sit and eat.  Quality time together can be spent doing other activities.  Try to clear the table while people are slowing down and are almost finished to take away temptations of over eating.

2. Traditional meals probably contain high calorie ingredients such as pasta, butter, oil, cheese and sugar.  Be creative and consult some low fat cooking sources on alternative ingredients that will cut several hundred calories per dish using items like egg whites, applesauce, fruit paste, lighter versions (not fat free) and etc.  No need to tell the family--they probably won't notice!

3. Add some new dishes to the dinner table of salads, vegetable, fruits and broth-based soups.  These are generally healthier choices so you can fill up in these and eat less "bad" stuff.

4. Schedule in your exercise in the mornings if you can.  Physical activity will start the day off right and help you to make better food choice all day long. 

5. Learn to say "No Thank You".  You do not have to try every dish prepared or eat all that you take. Starving children around the world will not benefit from the extra pounds of body fat you will accumulate after you clear your plate several times to be polite. 

6. While in preparation, only sample the food that is necessary.  You could potentially eat 500-800 calories in sampling before you sit down to eat.  Ask your family to taste and give feedback as well.

7. Sugar free hot cocoa with marshmallows prepared using water is about 50-80 calories per serving (depending on brand). Regular hot cocoa with whole milk can run you 200 calories for an 8-10 ounce serving.  There are ways to alter small things that make a big difference.

8. Eat ONLY until you are satisfied, NOT full.  If you sit at the dinner table for more then 2 hours, you are probably going to eat more then you need to because it's there.  Pay attention to when your body feels good, not when you need to unbutton your pants!

9. Keep a log of ALL of your exercise and food.  The average amount of calories for an adult between the ages of 30-55 who participates in moderate activity of 2-3 hours a week is 1800 (women)-2500 (men).  The average holiday meal including drinks can average around 2800-3200.  You don't need to count the calories, just pay attention to it and be honest.  Logging keeps you aware of why the scale goes up and down.

10.Holidays are stressful times and sometimes depressing for some.  Exercise boosts your body's production of serotonin, the body's "happy drug".   Don't let stress win!  If you need some support in getting the gym or doing your home workouts, hire a trainer.  You'll be glad you had the discipline and you will be ahead of the game for the New Year!

 

J.J. Flizanes, director and founder of Invisible Fitness, has been featured on NBC, KTLA, CBS, FOX 11 and has appeared in many national magazines such as Shape, Fitness, Muscle and Fitness HERS, Elegant Bride, E Pregnancy, among others. She was recently been named The Best of the Best in Los Angeles by Elite Traveler's Black Book for 2007. She has also been a local spokesperson for the American Heart Association. Visit J.J. online at www.invisiblefitness.com, or call 800 571 5722.


Back up the Sleigh: Why We've Changed Our Outlook On Stocks.

by Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

Paul Woods, President & CEO, Odyssey Advisors LLC.

Anyone with enough coffee available to get through our quarterly letters for the last few years knows that we've been cautious on the outlook for stocks. We expected single digit returns, but still expected equities to do better than bonds. We were on the money in 2005, and pleasantly surprised to be wrong in 2006 as most market averages seem poised to do better than we expected. Although some are questioning whether the current rally is overextended, we think it's just getting started.

ÔTis the Season
One of the things professional investors grudgingly accept as they gain experience is that the stock market is mostly unpredictable. We can't get investors in at the bottom and out at the top. When we try, we sometimes end up doing the opposite. Until someone develops a crystal ball that works, predicting the stock market is going to remain extremely difficult. That being said, however, many investors still enter certain times of the year with a bounce in their step while other periods produce a queasy feeling in the pit of their stomach.

For whatever reason, there appears to be a season pattern to returns in the stock market in the U.S. and the rest of the world. I keep threatening to close our investment advisory business for the summer, as it's usually a tough time to make money for investors. If we ever do that, we'll reopen in October. As you can see, November through January typically produces almost half of the historic annual return for stocks.

Source: Ibbotson Associates

The Presidential Election Cycle
One thing that shouldn't come as a surprise is that there's a pattern of returns tied to the Presidential election years. In a nutshell, before an election is a good time to invest and it gets a lot tougher to make money after elections. Interestingly, it doesn't seem to matter if a Republican or Democrat is elected or if we elect a new guy or the incumbent.

The key to this cycle is the Federal Reserve. Even though it's supposed to be independent, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is nominated by the President and confirmed by Congress every 7 years. Since Fed Chairmen tend to like their jobs and seek reappointments, there's a powerful incentive not to annoy the boss with a lousy economy when he's seeking reelection.

As a result, the Fed usually does a good job of pushing the right buttons to get the economy moving in time for an election. Any excesses that build up in the economy can always be fixed afterward. Two of the most important are their ability to set the short-term cost of bank borrowing and the ability to change the amount of money in circulation. Both have an impact on valuations in the stock market, the economy, and corporate profits.

The problem is that there's a long lead-time between changes in interest rates or money supply growth and changes in the economy. If the Fed wants to get the economy moving in time for the election, it has to start a year earlier. However, investors have a shorter response time and tend to react more quickly when they see the right buttons being pushed.

Source: Ibbotson Associates

As you can see, next year (2007) typically produces the highest returns in this four-year cycle. Returns of over 20% are the norm, with smaller companies usually doing better than blue chips. Returns are a bit lower in election years, but still above average. For the next two years, the average historic return has been 7.3-8.3% in big company stocks and 7.3 - 11.6% in smaller companies.

Caveats
Since we're living in a country with an oversupply of lawyers, we need to add a few caveats. The data you've seen so far consists of average returns. In some years, investors have made a lot of money in the summer and lost money in the winter. There have been lousy returns in the years before an election and high returns afterward. All that professional investors can do is play the odds and these favor the strategies in this article. However, as the stock market keeps proving over and over, long shots aren't uncommon.

In addition, it makes no sense to blindly follow any strategy without asking if the factors are in place to make it work. Stock prices are based on earnings per share multiplied by a valuation (a.k.a. Price to Earnings Ratio or P/E Ratio). To make money in the stock market, one has to go up faster than the other is going down. However, to produce high returns, both earnings and valuations usually have to be going up.

Earnings
Earnings have powered the rise in stock prices since 2002, as corporate profits have shown double digit growth since then. For what it's worth, trend line growth in earnings for the S&P 500 Index is about 7% over time, making this one of the longest sustained periods of above-average growth in the last few decades.

Source: Thomson Baseline

In looking at this chart, earnings growth peaked about two years ago, but has been fairly stable for the last year or so at around 14%. However, we think a slowing economy will take a toll, and expect earnings growth to slow further in 2007. At present, earnings per share estimates for the S&P 500 are $90.47 in 2007 versus $85.20 in 2006, which comes out to an increase of just over 6%. It's an open secret in the stock market that consensus earnings estimates are almost always too low, so a realistic estimate might be a 7-10% increase in earnings in 2006. As a result, it's probably going to take some help from valuations to produce a double-digit return in 2007.

Valuations
The valuation part of this equation has been uncooperative since 2003, as this is the first bull market in decades that was powered entirely by earnings. In fact, earnings are up more than stock prices, as valuations have contracted since 2003. At present, P/E ratios appear to be around the middle of their historic range. However, it's important to keep in mind that valuations are driven by a lot of things, but interest rates are the most important.

All you need to remember about valuations and interest rates is that they move in opposite directions. High interest rates tend to produce low valuations and vice versa. In addition, rising interest rates usually cause valuations to decline while falling interest rates tend to produce higher valuations. In a nutshell, the reason for unexciting returns in the stock market since 2003 is that rising interest rates have been pushing down P/E ratios, which has partially offset strong earnings growth.

To give us some idea of whether current valuations are high or low, we ran a regression analysis and compared P/E ratios with the yield on a 5 year Treasury bond. The result was the green line shown on the chart below, which is our version of fair valuation for stocks. Even though valuations are in the middle of their historic range, interest rates are still around the bottom of their range for the last few decades. As a result, our analysis indicates the stock market is currently undervalued by over 15%. Having said that, we aren't going to try to predict when or how the gap will close, but note that the stock market hasn't been this undervalued since 1988.

Source: Thomson Baseline

All Things Considered
We think the table has been set for another above average return in 2007. The Federal Reserve appears to have finally succeeded in killing real estate, and economic growth is slowing as a result. The inflation rate is also coming down as energy prices appear to have stabilized. To us, that spells lower interest rates, and we expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting short-term interest rates by the middle of 2007 to get the economy improving in time for the next Presidential election.

At present, the stock market appears undervalued, and bonds and real estate aren't offering much competition. Our expectation is for valuations in the stock market to be higher in 12 months on higher earnings. Right now, seasonal factors are also in our favor, as about the only folks that like winter are skiers and stock market investors. This combination of the right season and the right part of the Presidential election cycle only happens at four-year intervals. While the stock market is always capable of unpleasant surprises, it would be hard to find a better time to consider investing.

Paul Woods is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com

 

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Copyright © 2006 by Odyssey Advisors LLC


Will the Democrats Spoil the Santa Rally?

Subscribers asked that and more in last month's one-on-one chat with Natalie Pace.

FYI: NataliePace.com subscribers and contributing writers cover the spectrum in political leanings, as the articles featured focus on business, investing and life. We don't exclude anyone based upon politics, race, color or gender. We do have an emphasis on green, on socially conscious and on freedom. Having said that, there were many investors, many who are Democrats themselves, who are wondering if Democrats will raise taxes on capital gains, cut back defense spending and work toward more affordable health care and drugs. This Q&A only begins to address those issues. We have invited our contributing writers to weigh in over the next few months... So stay tuned!

 

Question: How do you think the election results will effect the direction of the market over the next few months? Will it have an effect on a possible Santa Rally?

Natalie: There has been a lot of fever in the marketplace over the last six years. What I mean to say is that there are a lot of people who are driven to make dramatic, but short-lived, moves based upon headlines and analyst recommendations. When those moves are based upon fundamental economic forces (like no earnings in the NASDAQ), you see major readjustments, like you saw in the NASDAQ decline from 2000 to October 2002. Earnings are strong, capital spending is up, we are almost at full employment and there is a lot of cash in corporations these days. As Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson said in his remarks to the Economic Club of New York on November 20, 2006, "Our economy is strong."

I guess what Natalie is saying about the holiday season and the elections is that emotions will dictate the short-term movement, but fundamentals still hold for the long haul.

That is a good analysis of the market in general. The short term gain turns on headlines. The long term gain turns on buying great companies who are leading their sectors and poised for continued growth, at a value (a great price). (Yes. Value and Growth count.) The exuberance of the holiday season may be stronger than the more short-lived worry of Democrats jumping into control of the House. (For certain industries, like defense and pharmaceuticals, the shift toward peace and affordable health care may pose long-term concerns, however.)

You need to take a look at the Democratic agenda. Since we now have more of a "balance" of power, it will be more difficult for traditional Republican industries (especially defense) to have blank checks written by the federal government. It would be no surprise if defense takes a hit over the next few months. The defense stocks have had a great run-up since 2003, and investors who have enjoyed the profits might consider reaping their gains. I wouldn't look for defense to be a long-term hold right now because in addition to the shift of power in government, there is also the fact that the stocks are pricey, there may be a curtailment of contracts and there is a lot of pension plan debt concentrated in the defense industry. Remember that on December 15th, companies have to include their pension plan obligations and other post employment benefit obligations on their earning reports.

So far, pension plan obligations have not received a lot of headlines, but if the defense contractors lose investor dollars and start losing government contracts, then reporters may start reporting on other problems with the fiscal health of these companies, including the obligations these companies have to retirees for pensions and health care. Of course, there are a lot of ifs in that sentence. There is no doubt that war profits certain industries, and we are a nation at war.

What other industries might suffer?

News agencies are reporting that drug companies will take a hit. I think you have to realize that there is a difference between biotechnology and large pharmaceutical companies. For instance, Pfizer and Merck may suffer from the Democratic leaning toward affordable health care, whereas a biotechnology company might gain from the Democratic leaning toward stem cell research and DNA-based cancer and disease treatments. Realize, however, that health care reform was resoundingly defeated in the Clinton Administration, and that it requires bipartisan approval in both houses to get anything done with the current balance of power. Change will be slow coming, and should lead with plenty of warning.

I have a small position with Apple and am wondering what to do with it. At the moment I have a 30% short term gain. I am a market newbie, but studying hard.

The Hot News on Cool Stocks list gives specific, ongoing news on the Apple, so I encourage you to read that on the 1st of the month in each new ezine, as well in the middle of the month, when we publish the mid-month update.

Apple's revenue growth is still very hot. They are definitely experiencing a "halo" effect from the iPod's popularity. People are flocking into Apple retail stores, and there are a lot of first-time Apple computer buyers as a result. One problem with Apple is that they still haven't filed their 4Q earnings report and they said that they will have to restate earnings for the options backdating problems that they discovered. That could really surprise investors because it hasn't received a lot of ink.

Apple is a great company. It is a little pricey, and there is a big problem still looming that needs to be resolved before anyone can know where the price will stabilize. If you are willing to take a hit to your share price in the event of the earnings reports that are forthcoming, you might still have a great upside, both due to the Santa Rally and to the fact that Apple is so hot and will likely be one of the hottest gifts this holiday season with the iPod. Apple sales are solid and gains in popularity in the future look to be very entrenched. Steve Jobs is important to a number of partners now, including Disney. He is also a key, more "solo" type player at Apple, which makes the company more vulnerable than say Microsoft, where Bill Gates has a very strong executive team running the show.

The other option is to take your profits now, and then try to buy back in if there is a drop in price once the earnings are restated. CONSIDER THE SHORT TERM HIGHER TAXATION RATE! NO ONE EVER KNOWS FOR SURE which way the market rolls on news. Who knew that the markets would actually GO UP when Korea conducted their nuclear testing!

It looks like MEMC is still a good buy, especially if there is a great 4th quarter earnings report.

Someone asked me how they could possibly know anything BEFORE the analysts, and MEMC might be a good example of how that occurs. Analysts are reading earnings report, which are the results of sales in a certain period of time. Oftentimes, there are leading indicators that are not adequately factored in. For instance, you can see that the silicon ingot marketplace is tight and that companies like Evergreen Solar and SunPower are scrambling to get the silicon needed to fulfill their backlog. MEMC actually cancelled contracts with one company to fulfill obligations to another company that was willing to pay a higher price and give them a longer-term commitment.

According to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, ''During this period of tight silicon supply, our willingness to pay higher prices for silicon on the spot market means we have been able to increase our market share and satisfy more customers, while simultaneously increasing our EPS.'' (READ the ARTICLE Sun Powers Whole Foods, in archived ezine vol. 3, iss. 10, for more information.) This is information that is publicly available to everyone, but may not be a large portion of an analyst's considerations. Once the earnings report shows a big increase in earnings, however, all of the analysts will alert the world. The key question here is, "Do you believe that the silicon market is tight, that prices for silicon are increasing, that MEMC is in a good position to demand a higher price and that someone is paying it now?" If the answer is yes, then you may be looking at data that will become very valuable to a larger population of investors once the sales show up on the earnings report, the analyst agrees with you and the story makes worldwide headlines.

How long do you estimate that it will take for the new EBay acquisitions to have a positive effect on their growth?

For a more detailed look at this, please read, "Wow Dow! or NASDAQ Now?" article in vol. 3, iss. 11. Skype had 136 million registered users at the end of the third quarter 2006, up 20% from the 113 million users at the end of previous quarter, while the total number of registered users on the entire eBay platform is 212 million. That is a huge customer base, amounting to more than half of the population of the United States! (Roughly half of eBay's business comes from the United States. Its international business grew 38 percent over last year.)

Most Americans don't realize that Skype is actually growing faster than MySpace. MySpace only had 124 million registered users (as of 10.28.06). eBayÔs combined platform boasts almost twice the number of registered users as MySpace, at 212 million! Based on MySpace's traffic and popularity, News Corporation (MySpace's parent company) just struck a deal with Google valued at more than $900 million. eBay's bright CEO Meg Whitman may yet have a few strategic alliances of her own up her sleeve. According to CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved."

In the meantime, there is a new product coming out in time for the holiday season - the Skype Wi-Fi phone (made by Belkin and NetGear). Skype net revenues totaled $50 million in the third quarter of 2006, representing a 13% increase from the $44 million reported in the second quarter of this year. If the new Wi-Fi phone is a popular purchase, look for a higher total in the 4th quarter. Skype's revenue currently comes from voice mail, from some long distance charges and from the sales of hardware. eBay's Shopping.com also benefits from selling Skype products, like the Skype Wi-Fi phones.

What are your thoughts on NYX? The stock has been volatile for good reason, but there has been movement in the last week or so in the right direction. Long term, what do you think?

The New York Stock Exchange is not a company that I follow on my list. However, a quick look at the fundamentals show that this is a stock that is trading high, near the top of its 52-week range, and is also expensive, trading at a price to earnings ratio of 85.90. That high of a ratio needs to be reserved for a VERY HIGH GROWTH stock. It would surprise me if a legacy organization, like the NYSE, would qualify as a company that is poised for explosive earnings.

What interests you so much in the company?

My father-in-law has/had a seat on the exchange and kind of INSISTED that I take a position for the long haul. Don't yell at me for breaking all the rules about doing my homework!

Ah, so you might do your homework and then decide whether or not to put NYSE on your radar. You might wait for a better buying opportunity. Be aware, however, that your current rationale falls under "hot tip" category (one of the top 9 investing mistakes). You want to look at investments like mosaics. The more tiles you turn over, the better picture you have of the desirability of the investment. I like to have a hundred great reasons for buying stocks, not just buying blindly because so and so said so!

Sirius lost less money, so the stock went up a bit today. Is merging with XM the likely outcome and what do you think about the future of satellite radio in general?

Satellite radio is merely the shift from land radio to better reception worldwide. It is a different market than the iPod music handheld. I think of satellite radio as radio and iPods as the new C.D. In terms of consolidation, it is rare for a new marketplace, which really has only two major players, to have one player gobble up the other this early in the game. Mel Karmazin has a strong track record. He's a very valuable CEO for Sirius.

What are OPEBs and where can we find out which companies owe it?

OPEBs = Other Post Employment Benefits. You can see which 21 companies of the 30 companies listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average have pension and Other Post Employment Benefit obligations that exceed $1 billion in the article, Wow Dow! Or NASDAQ NOW?" located in the November ezine, vol. 3, issue 11. There is a pensions stock report card in the "Faded Blue Chips" article, which is in an archived ezine, volume 3, issue 8. Note that this report is from August, so the General Motors pension debt was much higher. (It is still very high, but slightly less, as they bought out so many of their current labor force.)

Is there any way to see a company's debt (long term, pensions and health) on Yahoo or Edgar?

Companies are required to list their pension and OPEBs on their earnings reports effective December 15, 2006. The easiest way to check this out would be in the company's earnings reports. Go to www.sec.gov. Enter in the stock symbol for the company. Select the most recent earnings report. Do a search on the word "pension" and it should take you to all of the references for pension in the report. (This makes it easier than reading these lengthy documents.) Other keywords that I search on regularly include: pension, debt, liability and lawsuit. (Of course, you also want to look at sales, revenue and income, but those are more widely reported on than the fiscal health considerations of the company!)

Just for the record (no pun intended), you rock. Thanks for your time. It matters.

Have a great week! Remember, when you have diversified control of government that has the effect of slowing things down a lot. It becomes difficult for either party to effectively promote their agenda, unless they get bipartisan support for it.

 

Upcoming Chats:
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Investment Quality Trends has the highest risk-adjusted returns for the past 20 years. Their focus is dividend-paying Blue Chips. Chat with the Managing Editor, Kelley Wright, and learn what companies are hot for 2007.

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006
Bonds: Sexy and reliable, unlike .007!
8:45AM through 9:30AM
Bonds Chat with money manager Meri Anne Beck-Woods
Learn the ABCs of AAA, BBB bonds and more from money manager Meri Anne Beck-Woods. Meri Anne is a 30-year veteran in managing money for high net worth individuals and institutions. Free to i-Sophia subscribers.

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Learn why Paul Woods is bullish on 2007. Paul is a 30-year veteran in managing money for high net worth individuals and institutions. Free to i-Sophia subscribers.
Check the calendar section frequently for other conferences, galas, opportunities and chats.

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Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.


Something Sexier than a Bond: A Bond ETF.

by Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman & COO, Odyssey Advisors LLC, with research assistance by Sonya Nangoy Krawczyk.

Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman & COO, Odyssey Advisors LLC

Thinking about investing in the bond market, but not quite sure how to deal with the complexity of achieving a diversified bond portfolio? Wondering what happens now that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has stopped raising interest rates? Bond ETFs may be your answer. In fact, put in "LQD" in the stock quote field of a finance website such as Yahoo! Finance and you will find yourself a real-time (or close-enough) quote of a bond ETF or a bond Exchange-Traded Fund. Buying one share of a bond ETF would immediately get you exposure to hundreds of bonds that essentially mirror the exposure, risk and return of a certain bond index. What's the catch? Read-on to get a better knowledge of the risks and rewards of a bond ETF.

Traditionally, bonds are hard to figure out, due to their subtle risks and lack of liquidity and price transparency. Bond ETFs on the other hand behave the same as bonds, as their prices react the same way to changes in interest rates, yield spreads and yield curves. Better yet, by purchasing a bond ETF, you get the diversification of about 100 bonds that represent an index such as the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index or the Lehman TIPS Bond Index. Ever since its debut in July 2002, Bond ETFs have gained tremendous popularity - but don't let their names fool ya - they are all part of one investment family: Barclays Global Investors. Currently you have six options (listed below) that give you a broad market exposure:

 
Name Ticker/Symbol  
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund AGG
iShares Lehman 7 - 10 YR Treasury Bond Fund IEF
iShares GS $ InvesTop Bond Fund LQD
iShares Lehman 1-3 Treasury Bond Fund SHY
iShares Lehman U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fd TIP
iShares Lehman 20+ Treasury Bond Fund TLT
Source: Barclays Global Investors

To give you an idea of the volatility of the above-mentioned funds, the lows reached in this year are compared with November 2006 prices in the following column.

Fund

Low Price on Nov 24, 2006
AGG $96.00 $100.69
IEF $70.58 $83.48
LQD $100.00 $108.00
SHY $79.26 $80.26
TIP $98.21 $100.35
TLT $82.56 $90.62

Risk vs. Reward
So if it acts, feels and even sounds like a bond, is an ETF a bond or a stock? Indeed, this creature is actually a stock certificate, not a bond. Therefore, it has the benefits and risks of a stock. Similar to a stock, there is no guarantee of getting your principal back. Specifically, when you buy a Treasury note or bond, the issue is an obligation of the U.S. Government and there is a government guarantee of a return of stated face value of the bond when it matures, whereas there is no such guarantee with a bond ETF. On the other hand, you can buy and sell a bond ETF anytime during the trading day and ETF shares are priced continuously throughout the day. Furthermore, to get really fancy, bond ETFs can be sold-short, traded on margin and hedged with options just like stocks. Too much risk you say? Don't discount them just yet! They have many beneficial features for an individual investor.

The D-word: Diversification
The real benefit of a Bond ETF is that you could own a bond portfolio that tracks multiple indices giving you the diversification, liquidity and price transparency for not much money. Buying common stock in a company is significantly more risky than buying a bond. Since income and capital preservation are usually most important for an older retired investor, they tend to hold more bonds (or bond ETFs). A younger person, with more time before retirement, can afford to take on more risk.

The differences between the ETF's are related to whether they are invested in longer or shorter maturities, treasuries or corporates and mortgages. Typically, the shorter the maturity of a bond, the lower the risk.

Costs involved in a bond ETF
A Bond ETF and ETFs in general are considered lower cost investment vehicles. First, you do have to pay trading commissions similar to that of stocks when you buy and sell a bond ETF. Second, there is an ongoing management fee of 0.15% or 0.20%, depending on the fund, that Barclay's Global Fund Advisors receive based on a percentage of each Fund's average daily net assets. However, these fees are substantially lower compared to that of a much better-known traditional bond mutual fund such as PIMCO's Total Return A (PTTAX) that has an expense ratio of 0.9%. Third, bond ETFs are more cost efficient than laddering (buying individual bonds of varying maturities) because you get instant diversification and a set duration with the purchase of one trade.

Where are my dividends?
Bond ETFs pay out interest through monthly dividends to investors (similar to bond mutual funds) and capital gains are paid out through yearly dividends.

What about taxes?
The monthly dividends are taxed as ordinary income. From 2002 on, including 2005, the iShares Funds announced Zero Year-End Capital Gains Distributions. Taxes can adversely impact fund performance, especially in a down market where you might pay taxes (on the dividends) and incur a loss (on the principal share price).

To review and wrap-up, here are the general pros and cons of investing in a Bond ETF:
Pros:

Diversification in the bond market for less money
Greater knowledge of holdings in fund (2 day lag rather than quarterly)
Liquidity and price transparency
Lower tax implications
Lower costs

Cons:
Risk of not getting your principal back
Brokerage fee for buying and selling
Not enough information about each index available to public
No control over how and when you want your interest income

So next time when you're in the mood for something sexier than a Bond be sure to consider bond ETFs.

 

Meri Anne Beck-Woods is Chairman and COO of Odyssey Advisors LLC and independent SEC registered investment advisor in Los Angeles, California. She has over 35 years experience in the money management industry as a fixed income and balanced fund manager. She is a former president of the Los Angeles Association of Investment women and a member of the CFA Institute. She is also a co-author of the book Inspiration To Realization and a lifetime member of the network for empowering women entrepreneurs. She can be reached at 310 568-4700 and the website is www.odysseyadvisors.com.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Copyright ©2006, Odyssey Advisors LLC


Options: Make Sure You Can Hit the Ball Over the Net Before Attempting.

by Natalie Pace.

Dear Natalie: I am particularly interested in options.   Sorry I missed that 9000% increase that occurred with Taser International (since it was first featured on your stock newsletter)!  I am looking for the next big thing.  

Dear Next Big Thing.
"Trading Options Isn't Easy," according to eTrade's tutorial on options, yet there are dozens, if not hundreds, of sites purporting that options trading is not only easy, but also cheap and a way to "make more money." Power Options claims that there is "No need to waste time crunching numbers. With a few quick clicks PowerOptions does it all for you, presented in tables for easy comparison." TraderTech.com claims to have "Options Trading software that predicts with 80% acccurcy." (We guess it also spells with 80% accuracy.)

So, the companies selling you software for hundreds of dollars tell you it is easy, but that is not supported by the data. In fact, according to economist Kevin Murphy, the George J. Stigler Distinguished Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, 97% of hedge fund managers, who are the best and brightest on Wall Street, can't even outperform the market by 3%. (As you can see from the ANNUAL GAINS BY ASSET CLASS chart below, stocks return between 10.5-12.6% on average every year.)

There has been a tremendous amount of volatility in the markets over the past six years, during which time trends have reversed themselves multiple times, much to the shock and chagrin of professionals and novices alike. 1999 and 2003 were great years for gains, while 2000, 2001 and 2002 were all losers.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com

So, are you a dummy to invest in options? Not according to Dr. Myron Scholes, a Nobel Laureate winning economist and the chairman of the Oak Hill Platinum Partners. Dr. Scholes suggests that if you are smart with options, you can have the best of both worlds- a safe portfolio, with the power to strike rich returns. Dr. Scholes advised the crowd at the 2006 Milken Conference that, "Options are wonderful thingsÉ You can put 10% of your money in call options, and 90% in bonds. You've got the upside - options - with 90% of the money safe." (Click to listen to the entire breakout session, entitled Risk & Return: Theory vs. Reality, or go to MilkenInstitute.org and select Events - Conferences - 2006.)

It should be noted that Dr. Scholes co-created the Black-Scholes options pricing model, and Oak Hill Platinum Partners is a hedge fund. His bias toward options is quite natural; he is an expert and understands all of the risks and rewards, as well as how to evaluate the best opportunities out there. There are few certified financial planners who would recommend having 90% in bonds and 10% in call options, and no professional would EVER propose that for a new investor. In fact, most brokerages will not allow you to trade options at all until you have been trading for at least a year. With options, you lose all of your investment if you are not "in the money" when the option period expires, whereas when you buy stocks, you can hold them as long as the company is publicly traded and sell at any opportunity that you find along the way.

In investing, so much falls back to balance, asset allocation, diversification, education, emotions and risk. There is a huge difference in the way your body reacts to having real money on the line. No investment is worth a heart attack. So, if allocation, ETFs, limit order and diversification are still hieroglyphics to you, start with the ABCs of investing before you try to out-talk and out-maneuver the Nobel Laureates on Wall Street. (Education is the best way to manage your emotional reaction to investing.) The Chicago Board Options Exchange offers the most reputable tutorial for options trading. Click or go to CBOE.com for more information.

As Dr. Scholes warns, investing in options is very competitive. If you're buying and selling at a profit, someone else is taking a loss. You wouldn't wager on beating Roger Federer at tennis until you'd hit a few aces over the net. However, you might invest in Ivan Ljubicic hitting 273 more aces than Federer in 2007 (just as he did in 2006). Just make sure you're placing vacation money on the line, not the ranch, just in case Ivan falls in love and forgets to practice, over-trains and strains his elbow or gets struck by lightning in a freak storm in Bosnia (his home country). Even though small cap stocks have returned 12.6% annually over the past 36 years (which supports having a long-term position in stocks for your nest egg), in any given short term period, the markets can be just very susceptible to unforeseen events (like 9.11). For the trained professional, volatility equals easy wins over the inexperienced.

Successful investing is a relatively simple game of buying low and selling high. One of the most important factors to "selling high" is determining your best time to sell. Options trading limits your selling opportunity to a narrow window, which means that you have to be right AND the market has to agree with you to be on the money. Buying stock, on the other hand, allows one the freedom to hold on and ride out any volatile waves that might occur in the stock price of the company you believe in.

So back to your question on Taser and the next big thing! The NataliePace.com stock newsletter is still at the top of over 800 A-list pundits, hitting home 45% annualized gains, according to TipsTraders.com. Which of the companies on our Hot News on Cool Stocks list will be the next superstar? So many have doubled over the last few years that odds are good you can find a winner in the bunch, especially if you pick a handful to invest in. On the other hand, almost every company on the list has disappointed someone at some point (including Taser), before moving on to post outstanding gains, which makes "timing" the breakout moment more tricky. We are often early in identifying companies that will go on to greatness.

Read the articles, digest our rationale for featuring the company and determine if it fits your investment goals. (We only list one company per month, or twelve per year, so each company goes through a rigorous analysis before being featured.) No one knows your goals, risk tolerance and stomach lining as well as you do.

 

Marianne Williamson: On Peace, Success and Wealth (a Holistic Approach to the Rich Life).

Q&A with Stu Zimmerman.

Stu Zimmerman, the host of Inside Wealth, spoke with the famous spiritual guru and bestselling author Marianne Williamson, on his show last month. Marianne Williamson is the mega bestselling author of Return to Love, Everyday Grace, and her latest book, The Gift of Change: Spiritual Guidance for a Radically New Life. She's also founder and chair of the Peace Alliance, a campaign to establish a U.S. Department of Peace.

Read on for an excerpt from the Inside Wealth radio show of October 29, 2006.

Stu Zimmerman -- Marianne, on Inside Wealth, we look at wealth far beyond material terms. and we also honor that there is material wealth in part of our collective conscience here. What is your secret sauce to your success?

Marianne Williamson -- Well what you might see as my success and what I might see as my success might be two different things. So when you say my success as a person, what do you mean exactly as that? Do you mean my commercial success, my professional success?

Define success in your termsÉ

Well I can tell you this: my experience as well as my faith teaches me that success has to do with who I am as a human being and how I am doing in my relationships with people around me. That to me is the highest level of success. And sometimes we can have commercial success or professional success at the expense of our most base fundamental human success - and to me that is a terrible price to pay. There is a line in The Course of Miracles that says, "Some of your greatest successes you deem to be failures and some of your greatest failures you deem success." In addition, even within the realm of my professional work, it's been interesting to me because some of the times when I felt I was the most sort of right on and aligned with my heart and what my gut felt I needed to be saying, were times that I was the least commercially successful. The books, for instance, that I've written that I felt were the most important or the most passionate cry from my heart were not always my most successful properties as it were.

So I really feel whether it's that I've aged or whatever, I've really come to understand for myself anyway that the whole notion of what success means in this country, I do not resonate with it. If my daughter is happy, if my daughter is well adjusted, if my daughter is doing well in school, that to me is huge success. And with other issues of professional success, if I'm doing what I feel in my heart is the highest contribution I can make on any given day, and I'm in harmonious relationship with all the various aspects of my work, to me that is professional success. Monetary success is a kind of byproduct of all of that. So to me it all goes back to that line, "Seek ye first the kingdom of heaven and all else will be added unto you."

If I take care of the deepest level of success that I can in every area, then one of the byproducts happens to be financial success. And other times, even if I do feel like I'm doing the right thing, you know financial success, professional success might not come from it, but that does not mean I did the wrong thing. So I think that's the point for me, it's the whole word "success." I think America has a funny view of what success means.

You are preaching to the choir here because that's very much about what this program is about. On our program, we have also been focusing on peace because peace is the largest building block to wealth, whether it's the kind of inside wealth that money can't buy, or having a form of inner peace, or even in terms of an outer peace and an outer wealth. If we have war, there is a huge financial cost, let alone spiritual cost. You're talking about a new kind of activism with the Peace Alliance.

Well I wouldn't say I'm talking about a new kind of activism because Martin Luther King and Gandhi have firmly established the ethers of human behavior, exactly the habit patterns I'm talking about mentally and materially. So I don't think I'm talking about a new kind of activism but I am talking about bringing all of ourselves to the table. I'm talking about the fact that politics as it is practiced certainly in the United States today can be likened to allopathic medicine, where you simply wait for the symptom to occur and then you try to suppress or eradicate the symptom without feeling causally - causal issues, emotional issues, psychological issues etc. And so, just as health is more than just the absence of sickness, I think peace is more than the absence the war. And we now know that if you want to be healthy, you can't just wait until you get sick and try to eradicate the symptoms, you try to proactively cultivate health. And I think that's the evolution we're now experiencing regarding peace and war. You don't just wait till there's violence and try to suppress it to either prisons or warfare, you actually proactively seek the social conditions, the psychological and emotional patterns to the best of your ability that are more likely to produce peaceful hearts and peaceful people and peaceful communities, and a peaceful world.

So I think there's a revolution in our consciousness about this, and I think that people who have a background in personal growth, in spirituality, in psychology, we are the last people who should be sitting out of the political process for that very reason. We understand there is a back-story. You know, the worldly events can be like the tip of an iceberg and the people that are visionary are who have a vision that goes beyond the tip of the iceberg. What's going on underneath? What's the story beyond the story? What's going on underneath always has to do with what's happening inside the people that lash out. Frank Isibelt in the last speech he ever wrote said, "We must do more than end war. We must end the beginnings of all wars."

In a book I wrote called, The Healing of the Whole of America, my basic point was you know everyone's going around saying it's a peaceful world but if you ask me, it has to do with what neighborhood you live in, it has to do with what part of the world. Martin Luther King said, "There are two kinds of peace: negative peace and positive peace." Negative peace is where there's no outright conflict, but where there's still an underlying tension and anxiety. Positive peace, he said, "We can only have in the presence of justice and brotherhood."

So I think a lot of people try to play it neutral on the planet, and this is simply not a neutral moment. During the 1960s, we said "if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." So I think what we've got on the planet today is that humanity is being safe. We're being challenged by a very, very strong point being made, and that point is that if you are just trying to live your life, being ok, but not proactively seeking to make the world better, seeking to put love into the world, then what you're doing is actually contributing to a status quo which is anything but loving. So the neutral days are over. If you're not trying to better the world, you are contributing to a world that's falling apart.

That's akin to being silent when you're witnessing atrocity taking place, and just not participating in it, but not changing it, either.

Right, exactly. And the line has become so famous from Edmund Burke, "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for a few good people to do nothing."

Yes. And now when we're talking about peace here - and we're talking about a proactive peace - doesn't it really start - as opposed to us pointing the finger at all the people out there who are warring with each other, does it start with us? Each of us has our own issues and struggles in life that leads our souls to be not at peace, including specifically what society tells us success is.

MW: Well I think first of all, of course it starts with us because everything starts with you. But I think what a higher consciousness community needs to perhaps recognize is, although it may start with you, it must not end with you. When it comes to external work, internal work, it's not either or. It's both, and the yin yang of life. So yes, absolutely we must address the wars inside ourselves because as Gandhi said, "The end is inherit in the means." An angry generation will not bring peace. Unless we deal with the shadow within ourselves, we do not have any fundamental capacity to cast out the shadows of the world. And all of that having been said, some of the wars that we do fight end up inside ourselves have to do with what you were saying, have to do with whether or not I'm a success, etc., each of us having our own little private battles. But I don't think ultimately there's that intimate a connection between whether or not someone is feeling successful in their profession and whether or not we are successful at turning the historical trajectory around. I think ultimately, what Americans have to remember is that some very, very wealthy, successful people were in the World Trade Center on the day it was hit.

To listen to the complete interview between Stu Zimmeran and Marianne Williamson, click on Marianne Williamson or go to InsideWealth.net. To find out more about the Peace Alliance's efforts to establish a U.S. Department of Peace, go to ThePeaceAlliance.org. Join Marianne Williamson and Deepak Chopra at the 2007 Peace Alliance Annual Conference, February 3-5, 2007 in Washington, D.C.

You can find more about Marianne Williamson at Marianne.com.

Holiday Tip from Stu Zimmerman:
One of the great things about family is that you accept each other's differences. "Yeah so and so may be off his rocker, but he's family." You love the person simply because they're part of the family, and that's so far beyond what money can buy.


Networking: Antidote to the Isolation of Working at Home AND Lifeline in the Event of Tragedy.

by Janet Hanson, founder of 85 Broads, a Global Women's Network.

Excerpt from More Than 85 Broads.

This is the third installment from the chapter "A View From a Broad," continued from last month's ezine.

On September 10, 2001, executives from Johnnie Walker joined us for a three-day media event at the Tribeca Grand Hotel, which would include announcing the winners of the contest on the morning of September 11.

Photo: Janet and Friends Race for a Cure

A few weeks after our reunion at the Water Club, I realized that the network would never really take off unless we had a powerful way to stay connected. I happened to be talking to Anne Casscells, one of the smartest women I ever worked with at Goldman Sachs, and I mentioned that our gathering had all the makings of a "bad high school reunion," where you see everybody, exchange info and phone numbers, and then don't have any further interaction for five years. Anne thought about it for a second and then said, "Why don't you Ôdot-com' the sucker?"

What Anne realized was that we could never become a true global powerhouse if we didn't exist in cyberspace where women could connect with each other 24/7. For the next two years, the Milestone Capital tech team (two brilliant young graduates from Oberlin College) spent some part of every day working on creating www.85Broads.com. In November of 1999, Reed Abelson of The New York Times wrote an article on the front page of the Business Section titled "A Corporate Alumni Network Just for Women."

Reed had spent several days at our office in Yonkers interviewing the tech team, me, and other members of 85 Broads. The cool thing was that she mentioned that as an independent network, 85 Broads was not just for alumnae but for women who were currently at Goldman Sachs as well. The response to her article was awesome and in the days that followed, our membership skyrocketed to over 1,000 women. She got my "voice" just right, which was that I felt a keen sense of disconnection and isolation after leaving Goldman in 1987 and that I had created the 85 Broads network to help women stay connected to other smart womenÑnot only during their careers but throughout their entire lives.

In the spring of 2000, I happened to be at Harvard Business School talking to students who belonged to the Women's Student Association. I was there to talk about the pros and cons of being an entrepreneur, and I somehow got off on a tangent about women in the 85 Broads network who had left GS to start their own businesses. Everyone present knew that 85 Broads was a network for current and former Goldman Sachs women and that I was the founder. Finally one gal raised her hand and said: "I think it's great that you launched the network, but I never worked at Goldman and don't see myself working for Goldman in the future, so you're talking about a network I can't join!"

The next day I sent an email out to the women at Harvard Business School announcing the launch of Broad2BroadÑa unique "co-mentoring" initiative. In my email I stated that I thought that mentor implied "older" and "wiser" and that mentee implied "junior" and " less experienced." Co-mentoring was a term I made up to describe what I thought the relationship between these two groups should be, which was one of equals. I might be older and have worked longer but the gals at HBS, who I fondly referred to as "rockets," brought a unique set of skills to the table that I simply did not possess. These super smart women spoke the "language" of technology and more importantly, understood its many applications. I could barely send an email and wouldn't have known what a hard drive was if it hit me in the face. For the first time, a women's network embraced its youngest members as professional equals and as true partners, which was a major paradigm shift.

What I passionately loved was being an "agent of change." Over the next few years, our Broad2Broad co-mentoring initiative would be rolled out on over 30 graduate business school campuses, both in the United States and abroad.

In February of 2001, my friend Michael Stoner asked me to join the board of the Johnnie Walker "Keep Walking" campaign. The purpose of the campaign was to award $500,000 in funding to individuals who had entered the "Keep Walking" business plan competition. That spring, we spent three days at Fisher Island in Florida with the PR and advertising people from Johnnie Walker to hone the message. Over the next few months, hundreds of business plans were submitted and culled for the best, most inspirational proposals, which even included a young cancer survivor who needed funding to climb Mt. Everest. On September 10, 2001, executives from Johnnie Walker joined us for a three-day media event at the Tribeca Grand Hotel, which would include announcing the winners of the contest on the morning of September 11.

On the afternoon of September 10, I was at Citigroup for a meeting with Lisa Caputo, the president of Women & Co. I got caught in a hellacious downpour as I left 399 Park Avenue to drive down to the Tribeca Grand, which was just a few blocks north of the World Trade Center. The folks from Johnnie Walker had arranged for us to have dinner at City Hall, a great Manhattan restaurant. Before we left the hotel for the restaurant, we were in a private room near the lobby having a drinkÑall of us commented that the lightning and thunder looked and sounded fakeÑlike the kind you'd see and hear in a 1950's horror movie.

The next morning was gorgeousÑnot a cloud in the sky and not even a whiff of humidity. We were to be downstairs by 8 a.m. to go to the Altman Building for the final candidate presentations and the announcement of the winners. The folks at Johnnie Walker had been working on the campaign for two years and were hoping that it would be one of the biggest media events in New York City that day. The event planners called my room several times to tell me to step on it as I was upstairs sending out last minute emails and had lost track of the time. I left the Tribeca Grand at 8:25 a.m. and thought what a fun day it would be.

One of the other board members was Josie Natori, who was a legend in the lingerie business. Josie and I were having breakfast together, and I remember we were talking about golf. Then the oddest thing happened. Two of the staffers from Johnnie Walker were huddled just a few feet from where Josie and I were sitting, and I heard one of them say "World Trade Center." I thought to myselfÑ no one ever says "World Trade Center" unless something bad is happening.

We were asked to come into the main room where all of the cameras and TV equipment were set up to listen to the presentations of the final candidates who were still in the running for funding for their business idea. It was now 9:15 a.m. At about that time, my cell phone rang. I saw that it was Jeff calling me from our office and without listening, very tersely said, "I have to call you back," and hung up. Then other board members' cell phones started to ring and before we knew it, the show was over. The TVs were switched to CBS and CNN, and we all raced outside onto the street to see what was happening. I can remember being overwhelmed again by how blue the sky was and how it just didn't make any sense that the Trade Center was on fire. We were still operating under the "small Cessna crashing" scenario, so everybody was hopeful that the damage was minor.

But then the real and awful truth started to unfold on TV. Alan Chambers, who was one of the board members and whose wife Michelle was back at the Tribeca Grand, decided that he was going to walk back to the hotel to make sure she was all right. By now, the towers had fallen and while we were walking south, everyone else seemed to be walking north. Everybody it seemed needed to be outside. The police allowed us to cross the tape after we showed them our hotel keys. "Keep Walking" now took on a very sad and somber connotation.

Camilo Cruz, a board member from Miami, had what we figured was the honeymoon suite in the hotel. The Tribeca Grand only has eight floors and of all bizarre coincidences, Camilo's room had a staircase that led straight up to the roof. Alan, Michelle, Camilo and I spent the next five hours on the roof of the hotel taking video footage and camera shots of what our eyes absolutely couldn't believe we were seeing. The emergency equipment being brought in made its way down Church Street as if in a funeral cortege. We watched as 7 World Trade fell down and not long after, the hotel turned off all the gas, fearing a gas main explosion in the area. That was when we decided to leave the roof and head down to the lobby and stay there.

At 4:30 on the morning of September 12, I packed up my laptop and all my luggage and headed north for Grand Central. None of the subway stations were operating until I got to 14th Street. I was exhausted and absolutely numb. I took the train to Yonkers and walked in with all my gear. Meredith and Christopher were thrilled to hear that I was out of the city, as were my parents.

On Thursday, September 13, I sent the following email out to every member of the 85 Broads network:

Maggie Craddock, a true friend of 85 Broads, has offered to counsel any of our members who are struggling with stress-related issues in the aftermath of the World Trade Center tragedy on a strictly pro bono basis.

Maggie is a licensed therapist and currently provides executive coaching to many individuals in the Wall Street community, including members of 85 Broads. As many of you know, Maggie spoke at our first event last fall. Please don't hesitate to contact her.

Our thoughts and prayers are with all those who worked at the World Trade Center, including members of 85 Broads, as well as those who have lost friends and family in this unfathomable tragedy.

TO BE CONTINUED NEXT MONTHÉ

In her new book, More than 85 Broads, trailblazing superstar Janet Hanson introduces us to some of the most remarkable, courageous, and successful members of 85 Broads, a global women's network she founded in 1999. Women--and men--will want to discover "the power of the network" at every stage of their careers and lives.


Work Fewer Hours, Make More Money.

by Chellie Campbell, Author of Zero to Zillionaire.

If you say your number one priority in life is your family, but you're working 80-hour weeks, you're lying to yourselfÑand your family. You need to look over the Life Buffet, choose to put a few choice things on your plate and leave the rest for another time. It's time to simplify. Get up from the table before you are overstuffed. If we organize our priorities better, we can scrape a lot of fat and filler off our plates.

Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.

The secret is that you can make more money if you work less. When you're overwhelmed, you can't be efficient or effectiveÑyou usually have trouble just getting started on all the tasks you have to do. When you're overwhelmed, you find yourself pushing too hard, driving too fast, and there's certainly no singing in parking lots.

I'm heartily tired of listening to the endless complaining litanies "I'm too busy," "I'm so overwhelmed" and the new phrase du jour "I have too much on my plate." Life is a big schmorgasbord, and it is tempting to try to pile it higher and higher with tasty morsels. But half of what you put on your plate isn't nourishing you, it's only weighing you down. You end up bloated and uncomfortable, yet you go back for seconds and then desert. Everything looks so good and you don't want to miss out on anything. Yet your hunger is not appeased; you are still looking for that perfect tasty bite.

So people work sixty, seventy, eighty hours a week at their job, meanwhile they have a spouse and three children and a hobby and a spiritual group and a non-profit fundraiser they volunteered for and friends they have to keep up with and shopping and visiting grandma in the nursing home and taking out the trash and doing the bank reconciliation and arranging the family vacation and Christmas shopping on the vacation so that's all done before the rush is on and grocery shopping and the favorite television show and cooking and cleaning andÉ

Éand when was I going to write that screenplay? When was I going to learn to fly that plane? Dance the swing? Learn to sing? Play ball with my daughter? Fly a kite with my son?

You can have everything you want, just not all at once. You need to look over the Life Buffet, choose to put a few choice things on your plate and leave the rest for another time. It's time to simplify. Get up from the table before you are overstuffed. If we organize our priorities better, we can scrape a lot of fat and filler off our plates.

A client of mine named Kathy called frantically one day: "Chellie, you've got to help me! I have too much to do and I've got to get some help organizing and managing my time."

When I showed up at her office to help, she was in a sorry state, and handed me her six-page to-do list. I looked at it briefly and said, "Well, you can't get all this done this week."

She stared at me. "That's not this week's list," she said, "that's today!"

I hung my head in my hands with a sigh. No wonder she was so frantic all the time. She was smart and talented and operating on a high wavelength but it was all frazzled. She reminded me of the people on the old Star Trek episodes where they moved so fast you couldn't see themÑyou just heard a high-pitched buzzing in your ears as they passed by.

I told her I was sorry to disappoint her, but I hadn't brought my magic wand with me and I couldn't create another 36 hours in the day for her to get all her projects done. She had signed up for too many and piled her plate high with obligations. There was nothing to do but scrape off half of the stuff on her plate into the garbage pail. She needed to resign from a bunch of projects.

She was horrified when I told her that, of course. "Well, I said I would do these things," she lamented. "I can't just call them up and say I can't get it all done."

"Yes, Kathy, you can," I said. "If you died tonight, guess what? They'd appoint someone else to take your place tomorrow. When a poker player leaves the table, nobody cares where he's going or why. The dealer just hollers ÔSeat open' and someone else fills the seat. Some of your obligations have to go, and it'd be better if you did it now voluntarily instead of later because you were dead from overwork."

That made an impression. Then we got to work separating out the choice tasty morsels on her plate from the tofu and the peas (or whatever is your least favorite food).

Here's how you do it:

    1. Make a list of everything on your plate.
    2. Reorganize the list in order of priority.
    3. Chop off the bottom third.
    4. Call everyone you need to call that's part of the bottom third and resign, cancel, abdicate, cede, quit, withdraw, relinquish, retract and surrender.

You are not your to-do list. You made up your to-do list. You can opt out of anything on it anytime you choose. The time to choose is now.

Spending the Time of Your Life
Before deciding how you want to spend your time, you might like to take a look at how you are spending your time. Make a checklist to help figure this out. Be honestÑyou don't have to show your list to anyone else so don't fool yourself. You will clearly see the difference between what you think you are committed to having in your life and what you actually spend your time on. There are 168 hours in every week. How many hours are you spending on your number one priorities? Sending out ships? Eating? Sleeping? Having fun? How many hours do you spend with your spouse? How many hours are you spending on income producing activities? Sales calls? Email?

Look at the truth of your life in this list. Are there things you would like to change? How is the ratio of fun vs. work? How many hours are you spending doing income-producing activities? If you own a business and want to double your income, double the time you're spending on doing the things that make money. Are you spending time with your spouse? I read that the average American couple spends approximately five minutes a day talking with each other. That's 35 minutes out of 168 hours a week. How can you expect a relationship to last if you only give it that much time and attention? Perhaps you're not married yet, but want to be. Then how much time are you spending dating? Going to singles events? Sending out relation-ships? How about time with your kids? What about that novel you want to write?

Yeah, yeah, I know, it's just that you have so much on your plateÉ

Let me give you a tip: Break the damn plate and start over from scratch. Grab a new plate, go back to the buffet line, and just pick out the delicacies you really want. Then write out your new list in order of priority. And make sure you give the highest priority items the most amount of time.

When you are committed to a project, you put it at the top of your list. I'll never forget an interview I saw on television with author Toni Morrison. When she was writing her first novel, she was working full-time and raising children. Yet she had a burning desire to write. She said she wrote "at the edges of the day," before the children woke up in the morning and after they went to bed at night. She got her novel published and kept writing. In 1993, she was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature.

We may not all win prizes, but we can all write at the edges of the day if our desire and commitment is strong enough. Look at your Zillionaire goals again. Have you scheduled time for their accomplishment? Have you scheduled time for positive thinking? Are you sending out ships every week? What are you committed to having in your life and how are you backing that up with the commitment of your time?

If you say your number one priority in life is your family, but you're working 80-hour weeks, you're lying to yourselfÑand your family. You either need to change your hours, change your job, or own the fact that your family is not your number one priority. If you take the time to reflect, you may find you don't want that fast-track at work if it means traveling too many weeks away from your loved ones. You may opt for job-sharing, working part-time, or becoming a stay-at-home parent for a while. You may want to start your own business and keep it small and the hours reasonable. You may find you are happier with more free time to enjoy your family than you are with more money, bigger houses, fancier cars, or gourmet meals.

Chellie Campbell is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine at www.chellie.com.


Using the Website and Calendar Listings:

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It is always the last article in the ezine. Also, the mid-month update can be found on the home page on Monday on or around the 15th or thereafter by clicking on Online Magazine: Mid-Month Update. You'll need passwords!

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Natalie Pace© has one of the best records in the U.S. for investigative financial reporting, as well as for social networking and tracking the trends of investors.  Natalie Pace, CEO, is ranked at the top of over 800 A-list pundits who are tracked by TipsTraders.com.  Our contributing writers are all respected veterans in their fields. Our aim is nothing short of spreading wealth by sharing wisdom, and providing a platform to some of the most brilliant minds in the world. We're adding a splash of green (and pink) to Wall Street!

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New Web Site Features:
Surveys. This month we want to know what the best holiday gift for guys and girls are. Go to www.NataliePace.com, and click on the survey question to participate in all three surveys. We welcome your input and that of your friends!

Sharing Wisdom Bulletin Board: This has been, by far, one of the most popular features at NataliePace.com. A young entrepreneur asked a question about expanding her business, which was answered by the President emeritus of NAWBO and the woman who planned the last Democratic National Convention! A young man asked about getting into the financial world, and was answered by one of the top economists in the U.S. and a very respected money manager. Here, perhaps more than any bulletin board available, we make sure that your questions are addressed by the A-list!

Calendar: Check the Calendar section of our web site frequently for information on Members Only Chats (with millionaire money managers and CEOs), conferences and networking opportunities. This month, in addition to some exclusive holiday events, you can nominate a Woman of Excellence for the NAFE conference. Participate in our chat with the #1 Blue Chip Stock Picker on Wall Street, Kelley Wright, on December 6th. There is also a Bond Chat on December 13th and a Stocks Chat January 10th. For more information, go to the Calendar section of the site!

Quote of the Day: We scour the top stories and the top speeches and lectures of policymakers, Federal Reserve Board members, executives, business gurus, analysts and more to bring you inspiring and informative quotes.

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NataliePace.com's calendar features Networking Luncheons, Conferences, Galas, Chats, Teleclasses and other special opportunities! Check out what's happening online at the Calendar section of the NataliePace.com web site.


Christmas Comes Early To Wall Street.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes our Hot News on Cool Stocks List.

Featuring 27 great companies earning almost 50 cents on the dollar every year, according to TipsTraders.com, versus just five that have gone slightly south.

KB Home
After leading KB Home for 34 years, Mr. Karatz has retired as Chairman and CEO, and has promised to pay approximately $13 million back to the company, according to a company press release. It should be noted, however, that the terms of Mr. Karatz's departure are still being negotiated, and that it is highly likely that a Chairman and CEO of his longevity at the company will receive a golden parachute - more than enough to offset the pain of the $13 million payback. For more information, read the Mid-Month report, available online under the Online Magazine link.

 

Santa Rally
Investors are excited by the Santa Rally and the 2007 pre-election year trend (which is typically the strongest performing year in the Presidential election cycle). 2003, another pre-election year, was easily the most exciting year on Wall Street out of the past six years. 1999, also a pre-election year, was one of the most rewarding years for investors on record - providing they got out before the March 2000 turning point.

Additionally, there is, according to Citigroup's chief analyst Tobias Levkovich, a high level of cash relative to market capitalization in corporations. (NOTE: There are certain sectors over others where the cash is concentrated. Microsoft has a war chest of cash, while General Motors, aka Generous Motors, owes more than 2.5 times the value of the company in pension and other post employment benefit obligations to its retirees and even more in long term debt). This combined with positive earnings reports has fueled the rally in stocks, with investors favoring the large caps in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the NASDAQ (while analysts like Levkovich favor technology).

We believe the WOW DOW! trend will reverse once investors learn how much the legacy corporations owe to retirees. Additionally, it is unlikely that defense contractors will continue to fare so well with a Democratic controlled Congress. We are usually early on trends, so there might be some legs left in these companies over the short term. There is a perceivable shift, however, from the old line to the new. You see it in Toyota's dominance over Ford and General Motors. You see it in the rise of Google and MySpace over old line media. You see it in the shift from paper trails to cyber space. There is real money these days in technology, and a shift, at least in sentiment, from fossil fuels to renewable, sustainable energy sources.

For more information, please read the "Wow Dow! Or NASDAQ Now?" article, in vol. 3, iss. 11.

In my, "Wow Dow!" article, I outline the reasons why the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are, in my view, riskier than investors realize, while there are a number of companies in the NASDAQ that are Cinderella growth stories. Don't let the 1999 NASDAQ hangover keep you from realizing that the Internet revolution is here to stay this time around.

Also, don't let dividends, buybacks and low price to earnings ratios seduce you into ignoring ballooning debt, a whale of a load of pension plan obligations and other obligations that are not factored into the bottom line of the earnings reports of many of the Dow Jones Industrial Average legacy corporations. What you don't know about debt, pension and health insurance obligations, especially in sectors like auto manufacturing, defense and airlines could crush your nest egg. As Gretchen Morgenson notes in her excellent November 12, 2006 article, "Why Buybacks Aren't Always Good News," "Over the past two years, 78 S&P companies have conducted buybacks that resulted in negative cash flow, and 33 of those then used EPS as a measure by which to compensate executives -- begging the question whether the buybacks were intended specifically to boost bonus payouts."

With the Santa Rally kicking in, I wouldn't be in a hurry to sell much right now, but I would also be equally judicial with what I buy. The Feds may have paused with their rate hikes, but they haven't quenched their concern over inflation, and terrorism appears to be as popular as ever. Both inflation and terrorist attacks on homeland soil are buzz kills for any market rally.

Bondholders particularly should be aware of the fact that having so much of our debt held abroad means that the foreign vote does affect yields. As Chairman Ben Bernanke reported at the Fourth ECB Central Banking Conference in Frankfurt, Germany on November 10th, "Between one-half and two-thirds of U.S. currency is held abroad. As a consequence, cross-border currency flows, which can be estimated only imprecisely, may lead to sharp changes in currency outstanding and in the monetary base that are largely unrelated to domestic conditions."

There is no need for panic. The U.S. has strategic global investments in the same countries that are holding our currency (like China, Japan and more). But neither is there need for irrational exuberance. As has been the case forever, make sure that you have a diversified portfolio with a proper percentage "safe" from risk. In your stocks on steroids portfolio, that smaller portion where you take on higher risk to achieve higher gains, investors who buy low and sell high and take their profits in shorter windows have been richly rewarded over the past six years. This stock newsletter is a great example of the rich rewards of that policy - 47.9 cents on the dollar every year. Our recipe is simple: 1) Invest in what you know and love. 2) Pick the leader in the sector. 3) Buy low; sell high. Works almost every time - 26 out of 31 picks on this chart alone!

Select your favorite corporations, but be patient about buying in on opportunity. The markets have been very volatile over the past few years, providing ample events and key moments to buy in.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:

    1. Interest Rates: Pause, Cut or Raise? The Federal Open Market Committee paused in August, September and October, after raising interest rates 17 consecutive times prior. The federal funds rate remains at 5-Å%. "Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time," according to the Federal Open Market Committee press release. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 12, 2006. Many economists believe the next move will be a cut, sometime in 2007. Oil prices play a big role, and lately the price of gas at the pump has been a real relief! (No action is predicted this December.)
    2. Interested in reading the minutes of the October meeting for yourself? You can. They are available online. Click on FOMC Minutes to read! The tentative meeting schedule for the rest of 2006 is: December 12, 2006. The 2007 calendar is: January 30-31, 2007, March 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday), May 9 (Wednesday), June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday), September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is an indicator that there is double the concern over managing the economy in the coming months and years.
    3. Online Chats: check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are three wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money managers about Blue Chips, stocks and bonds over the next two months! Don't miss out.

Bottom Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information, but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission of providing the news and information you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.

Full disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"

Hot Stocks
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Highlighted Companies (Hot List):
Citigroup (C)
Gap (GPS)
Genentech (DNA)
Intuit (INTU)
MEMC Electronics (WFR)
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)
Suntech Holdings (STP), a Chinese-based company, ADR
U.S. Gold (USGL), trading off the boards in the US and on the TSX.

DELETIONS:
Bioteq Environmental. (Microcaps are extremely vulnerable to changes in the weather. With builders and real estate falling off, so could demand for commodities, which could mean less money spent on environmental clean-up.) 144% gains are good enough for us.
Rio Tinto. With copper supplies increasing, building in the U.S. tapering off and building in China curtailed by the government, the copper futures have taken a beating this month. On November 10, 2006, copper futures plunged to a 4-ý month low. (See below for additional information on Rio Tinto.) 145% gains are good enough for us.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

11.10.06

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Agilent (Green)

No

A

$32.69

$31.99

$39.54

$26.96

-2%

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on renewable energy.

Blockbuster

RISK: VERY HIGH

No

BBI

$3.61

$5.33

$10.65

$3.19

+47.6%

CEO John Antioco purchased $1 million (value) shares on 11.21.06 at $4.66 each. According to Antioco, Blockbuster is in talks to sell off parts of its international operations, including Blockbuster Taiwan. Investors liked the news, bought in and pushed the stock price up. Launched TotalAccess, a NetFlix like mail-in movie service for $5.99 -- $17.99 month on 11.2.06. BBI had approximately 1.5 million online subscribers as of September 30, 2006, including approximately 100,000 trial subscribers at quarter-end who subsequently converted to paying members. The 2006 year-end goal is 2 million online subscribers. Revenues for the third quarter of 2006 declined 2.9% to $1.33 billion compared with $1.37 billion for the third quarter of last year. See vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." Very high risk. Distressed acquisition play in a heated up M&A environment? Jules Haimovitz was added to its board on 5.26.06. Haimovitz is currently vice chairman and managing partner of TV production company Dick Clark Productions Inc. He was formerly president of MGM Networks Inc., a unit of Metro Goldwyn Mayer Inc., and served as president and chief operating officer of TV programming syndicator King World Productions Inc. Currently in a legal battle with NetFlix over the right to rent movies through the mail, which NetFlix claims to own the patent on. According to the AP, BBI is still considering the sale of some assets, and will, in the meantime, invest in a significant number of new GameStation stores during 2007.

Citigroup

No

C

$50.38

$49.64

$51.33

$43.83

Flat

Refer to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup's appeal. According to an Associated Press report on 11.29.06, Citigroup will be one of the first banks operating in China. China is due to open its banking sector fully to foreign competition by Dec. 11 under conditions set when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Rising interest rates and the current M&A mania are positive for Citigroup. At long last, things are starting to look favorable for the red umbrella.

Disney

No

DIS

$25.08

$32.82

$33.85

$23.77

+31%

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter increased 89% to $0.36, compared to $0.19 in the prior-year period, reflecting growth at Studio Entertainment, Parks and Resorts, and Media Networks. The Company generated $4.8 billion in free cash flow during fiscal 2006 compared to $2.4 billion in the prior year, reflecting an increase of $1.8 billion in cash provided by operations and a decrease of $0.5 billion in capital expenditures. Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film company meets the most successful family media company meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds like the happiest place on Earth to us. As the largest individual stockholder, Steve Jobs may be the prime candidate for the new Chairman of the Board. During the year end, September 30, 2006, the Company repurchased 243 million shares for $6.9 billion, of which 96 million shares were purchased for $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter. As of September 30, 2006, the Company had authorization in place to repurchase approximately 206 million additional shares. Pirates of the Caribbean blockbusters equal film profits, DVD profits and renewed interest in the theme parks!

eBay

No

eBAY

$29.75

$31.77

$47.86

$22.83

+7%

See the articles, "Wow Dow," in vol. 3, iss. 11 and, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in volume 3, issue 9. Half of American consumers plan to shop online this holiday season, up from 36 percent three years ago, according to the National Retail Federation. Internet retailers saw a big boost on Black Friday, with online sales rising 42 percent to $434 million, according to a ComScore Networks survey, as visits to leading sites jumped 21 percent versus an average day. eBay has been beaten up and has HUGE growth potential. Additionally, Skype's new products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware) are hitting the shelves in time for Christmas and will likely start adding a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line by the first quarter of 2007. Analysts continue to batter eBay prospects, but many fail to include the potential upside of Skype. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." eBay reported record consolidated Q3-06 net revenues of $1.449 billion, representing a growth rate of 31% year over year. GAAP operating income was $339 million, a decrease of 5% year over year, and represented 23% of net revenues. Excluding stock-based compensation of $74 million, operating income would have increased 16% year over year to $413 million, or 28% of net revenues.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern Europe

No

EUROX

$33.87

$47.57

$50.20

$23.02

+41%

Vanguard seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries, in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund should reflect the difference.

GAP

No

GPS

$26.36

--

37.02

20.67

--

See the article, "Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign," from vol. 1, iss. 12.

Genentech

No

DNA

$13.50

$81.96

$100.20

$75.58

+526%

The FDA approved the use of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage breast cancer on 11.17.06. DNA is a Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply to the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs. Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone is expected to bring in $2 billion in annual sales by 2007. Genentech reported a quarterly profit of $568 million, or 53 cents a share, on Oct. 11, 2006, compared to $359 million, or 33 cents a share, for the same period last year. DNA expects earnings per share to grow by 65 percent to 70 percent for the full year. The sales of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma treatment Rituxan rose 12 percent to $509 million for the quarter while sales for its colon cancer staple Avastin shot up 34 percent to $435 million. P/E: 47.20. 3Q Total product sales = $1,941 million, a 34 percent increase over $1,451 million last year. The company currently expects approximately 65 to 70 percent growth in non-GAAP earnings per share for the full year 2006, relative to 2005.

Google (Green)

No

GOOG

$85

$485.50

$491.96

$273.35

+471%

Owns YouTube.com, one of the most popular sites on the web. Google joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price. Soleil Media Research Analysts put Google's value, based upon forward-looking revenue metrics, at $362/share. If you've quadrupled your money, profit taking and capital gains are attractive these days, although Santa Rally & YouTube Buzz factor could mean that price remains lofty at least through the end of the year. Announced 3Q 2006 earnings on Thursday, October 19, 2006 at 1:30 p.m. PT. Google reported revenues of $2.69 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2006, an increase of 70% compared to the third quarter of 2005 and an increase of 10% compared to the second quarter of 2006. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved."

Intuit

No

INTU

$31.72

--

$35.98

$22.93

--

According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." Announces 1Q on 11.16.06 after the closing bell. Intuit Inc. reported on 10.30.06 that the Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its investigation into the software maker's stock option accounting practices without taking any punitive action. 11.17.06 earnings report: 1Q 2007 revenue increased 19% over the year-ago quarter to $362.1 million. Growth was primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks software and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. Intuit posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss of $58.9 million versus a net loss of $45.8 million in the first quarter of 2006. According to the company press release, "Intuit typically posts a seasonal loss in its first quarter when it has little revenue from its tax businesses." 2Q revenue last year was 144% higher than 1Q in 2005 and 2004.

Krispy Kreme

RISK: VERY HIGH

No

KKD

$10.22

$9.78

$12.11

$3.35

-4%

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. said it would team up with NBC's "Today" show for its 13th annual toy drive. Customers can drop off new toys at KKD stores! (This kind of cause marketing can be VERY effective over the holidays.) Have you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? A survey of just a few shops revealed that the goods are selling great, and reflects well on the new management team's commitment to bringing in the dough to satisfy the sweet tooth of investors. KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. In turnaround mode, and trading at 5 year lows, though things have sweetened up since KKD hired Kraft Foods veteran Daryl Brewster as president and chief executive in March 2006. Taken off S&P Midcap 400 effective 10.27.05. The Company expects to report a net loss for the first two quarters of fiscal 2007. Hired the former general counsel from Winston-Salem-based Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI), Charles A. "Chuck" Blixt, 55, to serve as its top lawyer. Average weekly sales increased 8 percent in company-owned stores and 5 percent system wide, according to Krispy Kreme's sales report on 9.12.06. Having former tobacco company counsel and director on team should help get rid of some of the lawsuits. Now, if consumers are still sweet on the doughnut, they may actually have a business on their hands. Received an Overweight rating, with a $15 target rate, from Prudential Equity Group LLC analyst Howard W. Penney on 10.27.2006. Annual earnings report was filed on 10.31.06. Revenues for the year ended Janury 29, 2006 were $543.361 million down from $707.766 mm and $649.345 mm in 2005 and 2004 respectively. The loss was $135.760 million, trimmed from $157.054 in 2005 and a profit of $49.845 million in 2004. Long term debt stands at $118.241 million. 61 stores have been closed over the past two years. As of 1.31.06, there were 323 KKD factory stores, and 68 KKD international stores.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Read Vol. 2, Iss. 7

RISK: MEDIUM

No

LVS

$37.43

$92.72

$88.50

$29.08

+148%

The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is also making deals with other Macao hotels to manage their casinos and show rooms, including the Four Seasons, Intercontinental Hotel, Holiday Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La Hotel Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai Strip in Macao, "Asia's Las Vegas.™" Sands Macao is now the largest casino in the world with 740 table games. "The opening of The Venetian Macao next year will mark the presence of the first true Las Vegas-style Integrated Resort in Macao and will be followed by the opening of the rest of the Cotai Strip(TM) -- which will provide visitors an experience not replicated anywhere else in Asia," according to Bradley Stone, EVP. 3Q results on 11.1.06: Net revenue increased 26.4% to $553.2 million. Net income increased 32.1% to $117.6 million. Developing Singapore's first Integrated Resort, The Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which will serve the important South Asian marketplace, including India. On 11.18.06, LVS sponsored an exhibition game at the Venetian Macao between the NBA development team, Albuquerque Thunderbirds, and Team China. LVS plans more exhibitions like this.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$47.01

$35.30 (11.11)

$38.16

$48.89

$17.15

+8%

Read "Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price its product higher as a result. On 10.26.06, the Company reported net sales of $407.9 million, which represents an increase of over 10% from the second quarter level of $370.5 million. Net income was $91 million. During the 3rd quarter, MEMC Electronics finalized its $5-$6 billion solar wafer agreement with Suntech. As part of the agreement, the company received a warrant to purchase up to a 4.9% equity stake in Suntech, for which the company will be required to mark the warrants to market each quarter until they are exercised. Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC's CEO, reports cash and short-term investments of over $450 million. MEMC will receive $2.5 billion to $3 billion in revenue from sales of the wafers over the 10-year period from Taiwan's Gintech Energy (solar). MEMC also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent interest in Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel of land of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located within the Hsinchu Science Park. Buy rating and $54.00 price target at Jefferies.

NetGear

No

NTGR

 

$12.42

$25.55

$28.15

$16.64

+106%

Watch Natalie Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available for pre-order online for a price of $249.99. Skype currently has 133 million registered users, and the NetGear phone is one of the first Skype Wifi phones. An October report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by 2010. Judges from the IT Industry and CRN readers rated NETGEAR Best in Service and Support among crowded networking category that included companies worldwide with both voice and data legacies in Dec. 2005. 3Q earnings on 10.26.06: Net revenue for the third quarter ended October 1, 2006 was $151.6 million, a 36% increase as compared to $111.3 million for the third quarter ended October 2, 2005, and an increase of 16% as compared to $130.7 million in the second quarter of 2006. Net income, computed in accordance with GAAP, for the third quarter of 2006 was $8.0 million or $0.23 per diluted share. This net income was a 7% decrease compared to net income of $8.6 million for the third quarter of 2005. According to CEO Patrick Lo, NetGear has 58 new products. CFO Jonathan Mather is out. Christine M. Gorjanc has been awarded the position of Chief Accounting Officer. We'll keep you posted on any replacements for Mather. $151.1 million in cash and short-term investments as of 10.26.06.

News Corp.

Vol. 2, iss. 10

Owns Fox, MySpace and DirecTv.

Dividends

RISK: LOW

No

NWS

$15.88

$21.34

$22.04

$14.97

+37%

Read my vol. 3, iss. 9 article, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace, with 113 million registered users." As Rupert Murdoch noted in the last News Corp. 1Q earnings press release on 11.8.06, "News Corporation websites now rank second in the U.S. in total page views and fifth in unique visitors. Our recently announced landmark deal with Google for textual search is expected to generate $900 million over three and a half years." MySpace is now a Top 10 Global Internet Brand with over 134 million registered users, making it the 2nd fastest growing Internet site in the world. (eBay's Skype is #1!) Media is in favor for 2006, according to Smith Barney and Soleil Media research analysts. Mobizzo, Fox's mobile network, which pioneered text voting on American Idol, launched on 2.27.06, and will have micro-pay downloads of films and TV (including Napoleon Dynamite, the Fox cult film), games music and more. Rupert Murdoch has some talented, innovative leaders under his aegis, and they are hitting home profits. News Corp. has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0 billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly reinforces our view that repurchases of News Corporation shares are among the best uses of our cash in today's environment," according to Rupert. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." Holiday DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss Sunshine and Napoleon Dynamite.

Opsware

See issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.

RISK: MEDIUM

No

OPSW

$1.80

$8.24

$9.68

$5.03

+357%

3Q 2006 earnings: Net revenue for the third quarter ended October 31, 2006 totaled $25.0 million, up 59% from the same quarter last year. GAAP net loss in the third quarter was $(4.8) million or $(0.05) per share. Has $91 million in cash on hand. Named to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious Technology Fast 50 Program for Silicon Valley on 10.26.06. It was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's share price. The company raised its full year revenue expectation to $102 million. "We reached the key milestone of non-GAAP profitability," said Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of Opsware Inc. "During Q2 we also shipped the Opsware System 6 suite, the most important release in our company's history." CFO Sharlene Abrams resigned on 7.12.06. She will continue through Oct. 31 to aid a smooth transition to new CFO David F. Conte. Ms. Abrams is under SEC investigation for handling of options at her prior company, Mercury Interactive. Opsware automates the complete IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically discover, provision, patch, configure, secure, change, scale, audit, recover, consolidate, migrate, and reallocate servers, network devices and applications. Over 350 of the world's largest companies, outsourcers and government agencies use Opsware to deliver this new, automated model of IT. Announces 3Q on November 29, 2006 before the market opens.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

Trading near 52-week low.

NataliePace.com's 2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.

RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH

No

OSIP

$36.86

$36.81

$43.17

$22.04

flat

3Q earnings on Nov. 6th: reported total revenues of $74 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, an increase of $40 million (or 118%) compared to revenues of $34 million for the same period last year. Net loss was $21.3 million. Genetic based "cancer pill." FDA-Approved Tarceva for lung cancer November 2004. Canadian regulators approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on 9.21.04. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. FDA approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05. Submitted new drug application to Japanese FDA on 4.17.06. Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer. Industry sales data has placed the cancer drug market's value at more than $20 billion annually and it is growing fast.

RELM wireless

10.70 P/E

Micro Cap

88.73 Million

RISK: HIGH

No

RWC

$7.35

$6.13

$11.70

$1.90

-16.5%

Added to the Russell Microcap Index on 6.30.06. According to Feltl & Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM has just 1% share of a domestic market worth $1.9 billion (and the global market is eight times larger), so there is plenty of room for growth. In addition to providing communications for national security needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines and chemical plants. The United States Postal Service Extended its Exclusive Contract with RELM Wireless on 7.13.2006. RELM announced 3Q earnings on 11.2.06. Sales increased approximately 20.7% to $9.2 million from $7.6 million for the same quarter last year. Net income for the third quarter was $1.1 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.2 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, for the same quarter last year.

Sirius

$6.3 Bil Market Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SIRI

$3.85 (11.1)

$6.00

(2005)

$4.13

$7.98

$3.60

+7%

Announced 3Q on Nov. 8, 2006. Total revenue increased 150% year- over-year to $167.1 million for third quarter 2006, reflecting nearly three million new subscribers added in the last twelve months. SIRIUS ended the third quarter with 5,119,308 subscribers. For the fourth consecutive quarter, SIRIUS led the satellite radio industry in net subscriber additions, capturing a record 61% of total satellite radio net additions in the third quarter. SIRIUS reported a net loss of ($162.9) million, or ($0.12) per share, for the third quarter of 2006 compared with a net loss of ($180.4) million last year. Karmazin says the Stiletto handheld (iPod-like SR device) is here, and almost all of the record companies are happy with it. Sirius is on track to finish the year strong with over 6.2 million subscribers. Originally XM projected 9 million by year's end, but the company has cut its subscriber year-end forecast. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues. Could impact XM. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard on 2/3rds of 2007 cars. SIRI has deals with Ford, MBZ, Jeep, Dodge, BMW, VW, Audi and Rolls-Royce. Nielsen//NetRatings report said the online traffic to Sirius' grew 188%, to 1.9 million in March 2006 from 666,000 unique visitors in the year-ago period. That beats XMSR traffic, which turned in 1.69 million in unique visitors in March.

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

918.7 Mil Market Cap

RISK: HIGH

No

SOHU

$17.52

$24.57

$29.43

$14.25

+40%

Completed a $15 million share buyback program on 8.2.06. Stock buyback program up to $30 million announced on 7.25.06. Beat earnings on 10.26.06. Total revenues hit a record high of US $35.4 million, up 29% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding company guidance. GAAP net income of US $6.6 million or US $0.17 per fully diluted share. On 6.12.06, Sohu entered into a multi-year advertising agreement with leading online retailer, Joyo.com (owned by Amazon). 2006 revenues were increased by Sohu's exclusive right to 2006 FIFA World Cup online video content, according to Chairman and CEO Dr. Charles Zhang. "China Internet is the most dynamic industry within the world's fastest-growing major economy, in our analysis," according to Michael Tieu, a Brean Murray Carret & Co. analyst. Tieu noted that while China's online advertising market is a rounding error of that of the United States, its ad sales are forecast to grow 40% a year to about $3 billion in 2010. See NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Financial Times ranked Sohu in the Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6 days after our first feature article). Sohu was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, so this story is still nascent. See Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview on the Forbes.com Video Network. Could be some bumps in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it, with China still growing at over 9% in real GDP per year.

SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)

No

STP

$25.83

$29.25

$45.95

$19.00

+13%

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. Suntech is inspiring a slew of Chinese solar company IPOs, with LDK Solar, Yingli Solar, Trin Solar and Linyang solar planning to launch a US IPO in the near future, according to Reuters (10.02.06). Beat analysts' expectations of $151.61 million in revenues. 3Q earnings (11.20.06): Third quarter total net revenue was up 27.2% sequentially and 187.8% year-over-year to $163.0 million. Net income for the same quarter of $28.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted American Depository Share (ADS). STP and the University of New South Wales signed a new $1.2 million collaborative research agreement through 2007 with a $3 million extension through 2010. Suntech will supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world's largest solar power plant.

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

See vol. 2, iss. 8

No

TREMX

$20.72

$31.36

$31.21

$12.00

+50%

See vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic growth.

Time-Warner

(owns AOL)

No

TWX

$16.76

$20.31

$20.91

$15.70

+21%

See vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace" for a report card that features Time-Warner. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth, which is trading at a value. AOL and Time-Warner have finally figured out how to work together, and Chairman & CEO Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn. After a series of blunders, could it be TWX's time to shine? AOL is now an advertising-supported business. Reported 3Q results on 11.1.06: Revenues rose 7% over the same period in 2005 to $10.9 billion, led by growth at the Cable and Networks segments. As of September 30, 2006, Net Debt totaled $32.2 billion, up $16.1 billion from $16.1 billion at the end of 2005, reflecting, among other items, the closing of the Adelphia and Comcast transactions as well as the Company's share repurchase program. $4 billion in free cash flow. From the inception of its stock repurchase program through October 31, 2006, the Company has repurchased approximately 770 million shares of common stock for approximately $13.4 billion. At existing price levels, the Company expects that it will purchase at least $15 billion of its common stock by the end of 2006 and the remainder of its $20 billion program in 2007. At AOL, Revenues declined 3% ($58 million) to $2.0 billion, due to a 13% decrease ($210 million) in Subscription revenues, offset in part by a 46% increase ($151 million) in Advertising revenues. Ron Grant was appointed President and COO of AOL LLC on November 21, 2006, by AOL's new Chairman and CEO Randy Falco. Grant has held senior positions on both sides of the aisle - at AOL and at Time-Warner, making him ideal for the job. Prior to being appointed Chairman and CEO of AOl, Mr. Falco was President and COO of the NBC Universal Television Group. Jonathan Miller's departure was unexpected, but the transition seems to be a smooth one. All internal communiqué awards Miller kudos for setting AOL on the right track prior to his departure, which is a huge leap forward compared to the internal squabbling that characterized TWX/AOL at the time of the merger.

U.S. Gold

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

USGL

$5.05

$4.64

$10.30

$.35

-8%

See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in i-Sophia ezine, vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network. This is a gold exploration company that is being traded off the big boards. If the choice is between this and the craps table, you might have better odds here (and more fun if McEwen strikes gold.) Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time. They are digging to find a new reserve. U.S. Gold closed the private placement of 16,700,000 subscription receipts at a price of US $4.50 for aggregate gross proceeds of US $75.15 million on Feb. 22, 2006. 33.3 million shares outstanding, with a market capitalization of US $239.7 million. U.S. Gold Receives Escrowed Funds $35,665,596 net of commissions. A company spokesperson reported in August that U.S. Gold is close to listing on the TSX (Toronto's small board) and the NYSE's ARCA Stock Exchange. Listings typically have a positive effect on share price. Began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol UXG, on 8.29.06. U.S. Gold & Lexam Explorations Inc. (TSX VENTURE: LEX) are pleased to announce that Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, has been awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award by Canadian Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star Execs roundup." On Nov. 3, 2006, Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, and his wife Cheryl McEwen have been honored by Tiffany & Co. with the 2006 Tiffany Mark Award. The Tiffany Mark Award honors men and women who are making their "mark" professionally and in their community through tireless efforts on behalf of charities and organizations they care about deeply.

Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)

No

PBW

$16.82

$18.04

$24.08

$14.97

+7%

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises on the good or bad news of alternative energy companies which it may not even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year on bad news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply, even though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding.

Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell (NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being added to the Watch list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains. Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains.

Recently removed from the Hot Stocks List:

Rio Tinto (ADR)

Based in England

DIVIDENDS!

See issue 48

RISK: LOW

No

RTP

 

$89.60

$219.45

(price 11.29: $211)

$253.33

$114.90

+145%

Building permits are down worldwide, and there are reports that China is pulling back on its rapid urban expansion. Additionally, there are currency considerations in Australia, where Rio Tinto does a great deal of its business. Rio Tinto has definitely been the star of the metals sector since we first featured the company, back in August of 2004, but the insatiable demand for copper and metals was tied to the low interest rates in the US (fueling construction) and the pro-expansion policies in China. With both of those reversing, it seems like the high and the thrill may be nearing their peaks. Even with the year-end Santa Rally going and the Dow at an all-time high, on November 10, 2006, copper futures plunged to a 4 ý month low. "It's not unusual to see copper supplies increase on a seasonal basis, but the steady nature of the increases of 2,000 to 3,000 tons over the last few weeks has eroded support in the market," said Dan Vaught, a futures analyst at AG Edwards. Rio Tinto PLC, the world's second-largest miner, said on 10.18.06 that third-quarter refined copper production fell 15 percent after the company shut down a smelter at a mine in Utah.

Stocks to Watch
Great Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better price), if you believe the news on future potential. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

10.13.06

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$64.63

$91.93

$86.40

$45.26

+42%

Apple missed the SEC deadline for filing its 2Q earnings. By requesting a NASDAQ hearing (to avoid delisting), Apple buys itself 2-3 months to get everything in order. This stems from an SEC investigation into handling of past stock option compensation awards. Apple has said that they may have to restate earnings dating back to Sept. 2002. Google CEO Eric Schmidt just joined the Apple board or directors. Very positive for the long term. Former CFO Fred Anderson resigned from the Apple Board on 10.4.06. The internal investigation revealed that Steve Jobs did NOT directly benefit from any back-dated options, but that he "was aware that favorable grant dates had been selected" according to a company press release. The markets are heading into their top-performing season, the iPod is still all the rage. But if investors catch wind of the accounting irregularities and/or if there is more fall-out from the SEC with regard to the role that Jobs played, the stock could be negatively affectedÉ Popularity of the iPod and ability of Jobs to pull in muscle to help with the Feds keep Apple off of the Cooling Off list now, especially since none of the dough went into Jobs wallet. The scandal keeps Apple off the Hot List for now as well. On November 12,th, Apple hired Donald J. Rosenberg, former SVP and general counsel of IBM, to join the company as its SVP and general counsel, reporting to Apple CEO Steve Jobs. (HmmmÉ extra firepower in the legal department. Are you connecting the dots?)

Goldcorp

No

GG

$22.73

$29.29

$41.66

$17.49

+10%

Gold dropped to $573/$580 range on 9.15.06 causing losses for most gold mining stocks. Any troubles in the already tight metals market, or investor panic over inflation and terrorism could send gold prices even higher than they currently are (which has been happening all year). This has traditionally been one of the great gold companies, but there is an executive battle brewing between the largest individual shareholder, Rob McEwen, and the current management team. McEwen accuses Goldcorp's directors and management of "tyranny," saying that he opposed the Glamis merger and threatening to sue Goldcorp's management and board. According to the AP, Ian Telfer, Goldcorp's current CEO, dismisses McEwen's claims that shareholders are against the deal, saying that he polled 100 of GG's top shareholders and McEwen was the only one opposed to the deal. Telfer expects the acquisition of Glamis Gold to close in 5 weeks. Two things raise concern at this company. 1) No one wins in a war. 2) Rapid growth requires very adept management. Is Ian Telfer up to the task? How adept is he if he has his largest individual shareholder is poised to file papers in court tomorrow (according to a McEwen spokesperson)? The Glamis M&A went through on 11.13.06. Still holding on this list to see how McEwen reacts, and to report on gold future potential. Gold was back up to $635 on 11.29.06.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$28.34

$29.24

$29.40

$21.45

+3%

World's largest software company. $31 billion in cash. Launching a new handheld music device - Zune - No. 14, 2006.

Cooling Off Stocks (that may be in Profit-Taking Range).
Note: We may look to add some of these companies to our Hot News list again, if the price point should become attractive and if the outlook for the company improves. The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a continued decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (The stocks on this chart are expected to go down in price.)

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
American Airlines
KB Home
Toll Brothers

DELETIONS:
IMClone, Verisign and Yahoo.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 10.13.06

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

American Airlines

No

AMR

$24.05

$29.06 (11.13)

$31.73

$34.40

$10.00

+32%

Don't buy into the hype. Read the article, "$72 Oil Will Sink Airlines," in vol. 3, issue 7. American Airlines' financial obligations surpass $26.6 billion, including $5.1 billion owed to pension plans (which is close to AMR's market capitalization). American Airlines has such a strong brand, and so few investors are aware of the depth of their debt, that AMR tends to run up on any good news in the sector. It's not a slam-dunk short or put. 3Q net profit, issued on 10.18, was $15 million. "We are pleased to report a profit for the third quarter, which represents the first time in nearly six years that we have recorded a profit in two consecutive quarters," said AMR Chairman and CEO Gerard Arpey. "These results show continuing improvements in the Company's core business operations, even in the face of new challenges. But we also have more hard work ahead of us as we build a company that is better positioned for long-term success." Competition from low-cost carriers and competitors that have gained cost advantages through the bankruptcy reorganization process remains a significant challenge.

Fannie Mae

No

FNM

$60.38

$56.85

$62.37

$45.93

-6%

Spending $1 billion on accounting fees related to the accounting scandal. Fannie Mae also said it would miss a regulatory deadline Wednesday for filing its financial report for the third quarter of 2006. The company hasn't filed an earnings statement since late 2004. And yet investors are still in to the tune of $58.44 billionÉ. Are you?

General Motors

Yes

GM

$32.35

$34.67 (11.13)

$29.66

$37.34

$18.33

-8-14%

See the article "Faded Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. According to Standard and Poor's Report on Pension Plans (6.06), GM owes -$50 billion in pensions and other post employment benefits (OPEB). General Motors' market capitalization is $19.85 billion, and last year the company lost over $10.95 billion. With a debt equity ratio of 3.85, most investors are probably unaware of the fact that GM has financial obligations that exceed the value of the corporation by over 6 times. For more information, please read the "Wow Dow! Or NASDAQ Now?" article, in vol. 3, iss. 11.

KB Home

No

KBH

$59.00

$49.21

$81.99

$37.89

-16.6%

Chairman and CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating options. He'll repay $13 million to the company, however, his retirement package has not been negotiated, meaning that his golden parachute could far exceed the $13 million. Additionally, Karatz cashed out over $100 million over the last two years. KBH missed filing 3Q report on time, due to SEC investigation into stock options. On November 10, 2006, bondholders agreed to not default on their notes, and have given KB Home until February 23, 2007 to file the earnings report, according to the AP. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.

LifeCell

Vol. 1, iss. 55

No

LIFC

$31.06

$21.56

$32.60

$15.11

-30.1%

The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q Ô05 to reflect the recall. LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not over. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations. LifeCell has set up a testing program for anyone who received the BTS donor tissue. LifeCell has been named in "several" lawsuits related to this matter, according to the earnings report filed on 10.26.2006. "There can be no assurance that the level of insurance maintained will be sufficient to cover the claims or that the all of the claims will be covered by the terms of any insurance." There has been at least $15.5 million in insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months. AlloDerm(R) Regenerative Tissue Matrix, increased 73% to $30.3 million from $17.6 million a year ago. LifeCell has a great product in high demand, but the potential fallout of the unscreened human tissue could be more than most small capitalization companies can take. Operating income for the third quarter of 2006 increased 144% to $8.7 million compared to operating income of $3.6 million in the third quarter of 2005.

Toll Brothers

No

TOL

$37.82

$30.88

$46.39

$22.22

-18%

Cash is down to $322.5 million at the end of July 31, compared to $689.2 million, on Oct 31, 2005. Inventory is up to $6.2 billion, from $5 billion last October. Liabilities have increased to $4 billion from $3.6 billion. Net income was $174,632 million, compared to $215,532 million a year ago. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.

The following companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06. Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). (The cooling off list anticipates that a company will lose share price value.)

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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