TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.3 Issue 12 December 1st, 2006
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"Between
one-half and two-thirds of U.S. currency is held abroad. As
a consequence, cross-border currency flows, which can be estimated
only imprecisely, may lead to sharp changes in currency outstanding
and in the monetary base that are largely unrelated to domestic
conditions."
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Speaking at the Fourth ECB Central Banking Conference
in Frankfurt, Germany on November 10, 2006.
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- Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign
to Empower Africa. By
Natalie Pace. Including a Retail Apparel Report Card.
- Great Gifts: Want to Know
What Your Lover Really Wants? Check out our survey results.
- Great Gift Idea: Massage Oil for Guys and Sugar Scrub
For Your Girl Friends.
- 10 Tips to Stay Trim During
the Holidays. by
J.J. Flizanes. Remember that exercise releases the body's
"happy" drug - Serotonin!
- Back up the Sleigh: Why We've
Changed Our Outlook On Stocks.
By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors,
LLC.
- Will the Democrats Spoil the
Santa Rally? Subscribers
asked that and more in last month's one-on-one chat
with Natalie Pace.
- Something Sexier than a Bond:
A Bond ETF. . By Meri
Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman & COO, Odyssey Advisors LLC.
- Options: Make Sure You Can
Hit the Ball Over the Net Before Attempting.
By Natalie Pace.
- Marianne Williamson: On Peace,
Success and Wealth (a Holistic Approach to the Rich
Life). Q&A with Stu Zimmerman.
- Networking: Antidote to the Isolation of Working
at Home AND Lifeline in the Event of Tragedy.
Excerpt from More Than 85 Broads. by Janet Hanson,
founder of 85 Broads, a Global Women's Network.
- Work Fewer Hours, Make More Money. by
Chellie Campbell, Author of Zero to Zillionaire.
- Using the Website and Calendar
Listings: Tips on NataliePace.com's
Hot News on Cool Stocks list, chats with money managers,
Sharing Wisdom Bulletin Board, global business conferences
and more!
- Christmas Comes Early To Wall
Street. By Natalie Pace.
Includes our Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
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Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign to Empower Africa.
by Natalie
Pace.
Including
a Retail
Apparel Report Card.
Inspi(RED):
Steven Spielberg. Desi(RED): Penelope Cruz. Uncenso(RED): Chris
Rock. Discove(RED): Dakota Fanning. Empowe(RED): Mary J. Blige.
What's your word? Gap, in alliance with (PRODUCT)
RED, has wrapped celebrity and cause in a holiday
package for consumers, but are they buying it?
(PRODUCT)
RED is a big part of an even larger plan by Bono (rock star) and
Bobby Shriver (Kennedy blue blood), the founders of DATA.org*
to bring "people and organizations together to stop the spread
of AIDS and extreme poverty in Africa." According to the
organization's mission statement, DATA is not "charity,"
but is promoting equality and justice through collaborations with
government officials, for-profit corporations, celebrities and
consumers. Bono, Bobby Shriver, Gap, Oprah, Apple, MySpace, American
Express, Motorola, Converse, Emporio Armani, Penelope Cruz, Steven
Spielberg, Don Cheadle, Jennifer Garner, Mary J. Blige, Apolo
Ohno and more have all allied to donate 50% of (PRODUCT) RED profits
to the Global Fund to assist women and children living with AIDS
in Africa.
*DATA: Debt.
Aids. Trade. Africa.
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Photo:
Penelope Cruz
Photo Credit: Gap |
So, (RED)
is the new green (in every sense of the word), and just in time
for holiday shopping! While some retail clothing manufacturers,
like Bebe, are still embroiled in disputes with disgruntled workers,
others, like Gap, are proactively leading the charge to empower
the impoverished. (Refer to the Retail
Apparel Report Card for more details on which retail
apparel companies might, allegedly, have been naughty, and which
have been nice.)
Billboards
are plastered with provocative photos of Penelope Cruz and Don
Cheadle in the new Gap advertising campaign for (PRODUCT) RED,
and Oprah and Bono launched the campaign by buying (RED) products
on her popular daytime show. However, the real celebrities for
(PRODUCT) RED are not the Hollywood power elite, but the formerly
emaciated women and children of Africa, who are now leading healthy,
happy and robust lives, thanks to HIV medication, provided by
the Global Fund (and other organizations). To see/read about the
dramatic difference that treatment makes, check out the Time article,
ÒAn
African Miracle.Ó
According
to the Center for Disease Control, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts
for approximately 64% of people living with AIDS, even though
the region represents less than 10% of the world population. "Effective
prevention and treatment of HIV infection with antiretroviral
therapy (ART) are now available," according to the CDC's
August 11, 2006 report on The Global
HIV/AIDS Pandemic, but comprehensive programs are
still needed to get it to the people who need it most. Enter RED.
That is, if the world's consumers pony up the green.
Where
are the consumers?
(RED)
is designed to put partners in the black, but unfortunately sales
at Gap are still slipping. On November 2, 2006, Gap announced
that same store sales in October decreased 4%. Analysts and executives
alike had every reason to believe that headlines of Oprah and
Bono shopping for (PRODUCT) RED, at the launch of the project
on her show on October 13th, would be enough to turn
the tide for Gap. It wasn't.
(PRODUCT)
RED was featured on the home page of MySpace for the entire day
on Thanksgiving. Myspace's message couldn't have been a stronger
plug -- "You're going to buy [t-shirts and shoes] any way.
Why not buy (PRODUCT) RED? Collectively, we can do good in a big
way!" MySpace's JOIN
(RED) page had 574,149 friends as of November 27,
2006. While more than half a million seems like an impressive
number, MySpace has 134 million registered users. That equals
less than half of a percent return on the Thanksgiving feature,
which is pretty good for Internet marketing returns, but certainly
not an overwhelming success, especially given the exposure and
reach of MySpace these days.
 |
Photo:
Don Cheadle
Photo Credit: Gap |
So, is (PRODUCT)
RED in the slow burn stage, before the holiday storm? Many people
still don't quite understand what the campaign is all about. Michelle
Rhodes, a Washington University medical student, asked, "Is
that a cardio vascular campaign?" Only one out of six teenagers
and college students who were interviewed for this article knew
anything about (PRODUCT) RED. (On the other hand, the half million
registered users on (PRODUCT) RED's MySpace page are already avid
fans, posting thousands of comments and promising to buy the product
for themselves and as holiday gifts.)
Will Bono
and Bobby's baby save the world? It's a question of how shoppers
vote with their dollars. Two visionaries and a host of celebrities
and corporations are giving the developed world the opportunity
to be a part of the solution to Africa's crisis of AIDS and poverty.
This holiday buying season will determine how well that message
has been received and supported.
Shares of
Gap (NYSE: GPS) were trading at pre-(RED) prices of $19.02 on
November 28, 2006. If you're banking that Bono and Bobby Shriver,
both masters of headlines and promotions, can attract more buyers,
(RED) products may enable Gap to experience its first quarter
of increased sales after seven consecutive periods of decline.
Of course,
that still doesn't fix the declining sales at Old Navy (which
is also owned by Gap), but it is a step in the right direction,
and it might come as a pleasant surprise to Wall Street. We're
adding Gap to the Hot News list this month.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
NataliePace.com is not a brokerage, does not make buy/sell recommendations
and does not sell any financial services products. Consult your
personal financial planner before making any changes to your investing
portfolio.
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Great Gifts: Want to Know What Your Lover Really
Wants?
Check
out our survey results.
What's the
perfect gift for your guy? For women? Well, according to last
year's NataliePace.com survey, it isn't crock-pots and garden
tools. Women want spa gift certificates and couple's getaways,
while guys want - surprise! - electronics.
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Best
Gift for Guys 2005
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Best
Gift for Women 2005
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31%
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iPod
Nano or other music device |
23%
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Spa gift certificate (massage, facial) |
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21%
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Plasma
TV |
20%
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Couple's
Get Away Vacation |
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14%
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Satellite
Radio |
15%
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Clothes
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9%
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Angelina
Jolie |
7%
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Jewelry
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7%
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Massage
& Pampering
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7%
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Appliances
and House Furnishings (from couches to cuisinarts)
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Source: NataliePace.com.
(Go to www.NataliePace.com
to cast your vote this year, so that men and women across the
U.S. can get their gift-giving right this year, and no one is
stuck with a rooster cookie jar, Mickie Mouse tie or Seinfeld
DVD that they don't want.)
Now, since
you know where to get your favorite electronics device and are
smart enough to ask your loved one the exact brand that he desires
(you don't want to give XM Satellite Radio to a Howard Stern/Sirius
Satellite Radio lover), we'll focus our tips on thebest gifts
for women - spas and couple's get away vacations.
NataliePace.com's
Best Get Away (with spa facilities): The Parker Palm Springs
Some
people just get it right, and the management team responsible
for the Parker experience is quite simply the Muhammad Ali of
hotels. They work exceptionally hard and smart behind the scenes
to make mastery look beautiful. So, trust that your every need
is not only provided for; it has been anticipated, and is ready
at your beck and call.
Now for the
unique allure of the Parker PS. It is retro risqué, uptown,
not uptight, architecturally whimsical, a taste delight and you
are treated like a guest of the estate, i.e. spoiled, flirted
with and fawned over. Whether you have two days or a week, trust
that time will slow down, that you can renew/revive your soul,
challenge yourself or refuse to do anything at all, and even risk
a spiked lemonade and game of Petanque before noon. (Where else
can you play Petanque?) If you want a getaway with kids, the Gene
Autry house, which is in the center of the Parker PS estate, is
perfect, with the 2nd bedroom located far enough away
on the other side that your kids and nanny can make all the noise
they want (and so can you) without being a bother.
Everything
at the Parker PS is designed to invite you to "live a little"
beyond your comfort zone. In the yoga class, I thought the instructor
might be kidding with the positions he was challenging his beginning
students to assume. (My head stand ended up in a back bend, and
trust me, everyone in the class took at least one tumble.) What
was most refreshing was that I was in a class that was actually
challenging me, rather than holding back, worried that I might
sue if I pushed myself beyond my capabilities. I thought at first
it might just be a renegade instructor, but soon learned that
pushing you a little beyond your blasé day-to-day existence
is part of the Parker Palm Springs ethos.
Excerpts
from the Parker PS Manifesto:
We
believe in the American country club experience: mixed doubles,
a long steam and a stiff cocktail.
We
believe the last thing a woman wants to see while having a treatment
is a man; so we maintain a separation of the sexes.
We
believe newlyweds are too naïve to recognize this, and the
elderly too old to recognize each other, so we have couples treatment
rooms.
We
believe in inner beauty. But, do what you can on the outside.
We
believe in good sport as well as fitness: Petanque and Pastis,
Pimms Cup and Croquet, Snooker and single malt whiskey.
We
believe you are only young onceÉbut you can be immature forever.
The tennis
court is clay. The pastimes include Petanque and Croquet. At breakfast
you can have foie gras. The lemonade stands leave you feeling
a little frisky (Pastis or champagne spiked lemonades.). Dinner
is served in a risqué Ô70s setting that looks straight
out of a Saturday Night Live spoof of the Playboy mansion. As
Lynne Puttman-Dibley, Parker Palm Springs' human resources director
puts it, "Mrs. Parker has the culture of a queen, but she
can also drink with the sailors."
When I mention
the drill sergeant yoga instructor, Lynne responds, "If we
can have you experience one little thing you've never done before,
that's excellent." I'm sure she didn't mean back surgery,
but how refreshing it is to be in a resort that focuses on giving
you a memorable experience, at the risk of enraging their legal
team? Later that evening, a friend and I swung our legs freely
in the "bird cage" chairs that are in the lounge fire
pit area. There was a couple making out on the sofa across from
us. I got the feeling that we were having more fun.
Norma's, the
breakfast restaurant at the Parker PS, is the best breakfast on
the planet., whether you're an egg person, a lox and bagel person,
a crab cakes person, a waffle person, a parfait person or a foie
gras addict. If you're in the Palm Springs vicinity, whether you
are staying at the Parker or not, make sure you make a reservation.
You'll want to have dinner at Mr. Parker's as well. More than
the food, consider it a field trip back to the Ô70s, when life
was a little bit moreÉ daring. You'll delight in the handsome,
charming maitre d'. The motto in Mr. Parker's is, "If Andy
Warhol would like it, it's here!"
For other
gift and/or get away ideas, please check out the NataliePace.com
Shopping Mall, located on the home page at www.NataliePace.com.
For jewelry, there is nothing more priceless than Sculpture
to Wear. For cultural experiences, there is nothing
more delightful than the Los
Angeles Opera, under the executive direction of Placido
Domingo. Our breakout artist is Michel
Tabori. (If you purchase his "Forest Triptych"
before I do, I'll cry.) For spas, it's hard to beat Burke
Williams. These and more unique and memorable gift
ideas are just a click away in the NataliePace.com shopping mall.
You might conveniently leave the page open (or select NataliePace.com
as your home page), so that your lover will know where to shop
for your gift!
Parker Palm
Springs
4200
East Palm Canyon Drive
Palm
Springs, California 92264
760.770.5000
http://www.TheParkerPalmSprings.com/new/index.htm
Toys
for Tots:
During the
holiday season, let us not overlook those who are not in a position
to give or receive gifts. NataliePace.com continues to donate
10% of our subscription sales to women and children in need. While
you're planning your gift-giving budget, why not set aside 10%
(or $100 minimum) to celebrate the holidays as they were truly
intended - to share in peace and love. Below are three organizations
that would love to receive your support this holiday season.
CoAbode.org.
Single Mothers house sharing. This simple, profound solution helps
single mothers to double their spending power, cut their expenses
in half and have more quality time with their children. CoAbode
serves women throughout the U.S. and Canada.
ParaLosNinos.org.
Charter school and support services for families living on and
around Skid Row in Los Angeles, California. This program has become
so successful that it is being modeled around the world.
Department
of Children's Services.
This governmental agency, which is usually a county service, helps
find homes for abused and neglected children. They also run Teen
Homes, which are group facilities for teens preparing to live
on their own. The link will take you to the Los Angeles County
Department of Children and Family services. To find a service
in your area, just search on Google with the phrase, "Department
of Children's Services." These children and teens delight
in your generosity, and love to receive your gift of new toys,
clothing and electronics.
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Great
Gift Idea:
Massage
Oil for Guys and Sugar Scrub For Your Girl Friends
Cherry
Rose Sugar Scrub
Ingredients
8 oz. avocado
oil
8 oz.
almond oil
8 oz.
grapeseed oil
4 oz.
jojoba oil
4 oz.
Vitamin E oil
ý tsp.
grapefruit seed extract
3 oz.
maraschino cherries (with fluid)
5 drops
concentrated rose oil
4 -
24 oz. packages of turbinado sugar (for the sugar scrub only)
Directions:
Puree cherries.
Set aside. Mix oils together. Add 5 drops of rose essence, grapefruit
seed extract and blended cherries.
Measure
sugar in desired container. Pour sugar in a separate bowl. Add
oil in a ratio of about 2 parts sugar to 1 part oil mixture. (You
want enough oil to cover but not drown the sugar.) Fold the oil
into the sugar mixture with a minimum amount of strokes (to keep
the sugar granules from dissolving). Pour the scrub into the container.
Decorate
the container, and include the recipe when you give the scrub
away as a gift.
Where to
buy the oils and containers:
Trader Joe's
has great prices on Vitamin E and jojoba oils. If you purchase
the other oils through a grocery store (like a Coop or a natural
food store), you'll likely pay less than if you go to a designer
potions and oils shop. Also, I raid the local dollar store for
plastic containers, and use my color printer to print out the
labels!
Other tips:
This recipe
uses only the finest oils. The sugar exfoliates the skin, while
the oils replenish and soften. Designer scrubs can cost more than
$25 for a small container, and they often rely upon inexpensive
oil bases, which aren't as luxurious for the skin and leave an
oily residue. I prefer sugar to salt, since so many of us wax
or shave.:-) This does leave a slippery residue in the
shower, so take care to wipe down the tub after using!
I love making
a batch of these scrubs for my girlfriends. Let's face it. Women
work very hard, and deserve to get a great, unexpected, homemade
gift. And when you spoil your friends with something made with
your own hands, they remember it!
Massage
Oil for Guys
Use
the same recipe above. Substitute a more manly scent instead of
the rose essence. I've found that lavender, rosemary and even
melon-cucumber can work, but you know your beloved boy best! Pick
a scent that will be appealing to him, and make sure that you've
got an evening set aside to show him how it works!
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10
Tips to Stay Trim During the Holidays.
by
J.J. Flizanes.
Remember
that exercise releases the body's "happy" drug - Serotonin!
1.
Family get togethers do not have to mean sit and eat.
Quality time together can be spent doing other activities.
Try to clear the table while people are slowing down and are
almost finished to take away temptations of over eating.
2. Traditional
meals probably contain high calorie ingredients such as pasta,
butter, oil, cheese and sugar. Be creative and consult
some low fat cooking sources on alternative ingredients that
will cut several hundred calories per dish using items like
egg whites, applesauce, fruit paste, lighter versions (not fat
free) and etc. No need to tell the family--they probably
won't notice!
3. Add some
new dishes to the dinner table of salads, vegetable, fruits
and broth-based soups. These are generally healthier choices
so you can fill up in these and eat less "bad" stuff.
4. Schedule
in your exercise in the mornings if you can. Physical
activity will start the day off right and help you to make better
food choice all day long.
5. Learn
to say "No Thank You". You do not have to try every
dish prepared or eat all that you take. Starving children around
the world will not benefit from the extra pounds of body fat
you will accumulate after you clear your plate several times
to be polite.
6. While
in preparation, only sample the food that is necessary.
You could potentially eat 500-800 calories in sampling before
you sit down to eat. Ask your family to taste and give
feedback as well.
7. Sugar
free hot cocoa with marshmallows prepared using water is about
50-80 calories per serving (depending on brand). Regular hot
cocoa with whole milk can run you 200 calories for an 8-10 ounce
serving. There are ways to alter small things that make
a big difference.
8. Eat ONLY
until you are satisfied, NOT full. If you sit at
the dinner table for more then 2 hours, you are probably going
to eat more then you need to because it's there. Pay attention
to when your body feels good, not when you need to unbutton
your pants!
9. Keep
a log of ALL of your exercise and food. The average amount
of calories for an adult between the ages of 30-55 who participates
in moderate activity of 2-3 hours a week is 1800 (women)-2500
(men). The average holiday meal including drinks can average
around 2800-3200. You don't need to count the calories,
just pay attention to it and be honest. Logging keeps
you aware of why the scale goes up and down.
10.Holidays
are stressful times and sometimes depressing for some.
Exercise boosts your body's production of serotonin, the body's
"happy drug". Don't let stress win! If you need
some support in getting the gym or doing your home workouts,
hire a trainer. You'll be glad you had the
discipline and you will be ahead of the game for the New Year!
J.J.
Flizanes, director and founder of Invisible Fitness,
has been featured on NBC, KTLA, CBS, FOX 11 and has appeared
in many national magazines such as Shape, Fitness,
Muscle and Fitness HERS, Elegant Bride, E Pregnancy,
among others. She was recently been named The Best of the Best
in Los Angeles by Elite Traveler's Black Book for 2007.
She has also been a local spokesperson for the American Heart
Association. Visit J.J. online at www.invisiblefitness.com,
or call 800 571 5722.
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Back up the Sleigh:
Why We've Changed Our Outlook On Stocks.
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC
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| Paul
Woods, President & CEO, Odyssey Advisors LLC. |
Anyone with
enough coffee available to get through our quarterly letters for
the last few years knows that we've been cautious on the outlook
for stocks. We expected single digit returns, but still expected
equities to do better than bonds. We were on the money in 2005,
and pleasantly surprised to be wrong in 2006 as most market averages
seem poised to do better than we expected. Although some are questioning
whether the current rally is overextended, we think it's just
getting started.
ÔTis
the Season
One of the things professional investors grudgingly accept
as they gain experience is that the stock market is mostly unpredictable.
We can't get investors in at the bottom and out at the top. When
we try, we sometimes end up doing the opposite. Until someone
develops a crystal ball that works, predicting the stock market
is going to remain extremely difficult. That being said, however,
many investors still enter certain times of the year with a bounce
in their step while other periods produce a queasy feeling in
the pit of their stomach.
For whatever
reason, there appears to be a season pattern to returns in the
stock market in the U.S. and the rest of the world. I keep threatening
to close our investment advisory business for the summer, as it's
usually a tough time to make money for investors. If we ever do
that, we'll reopen in October. As you can see, November through
January typically produces almost half of the historic annual
return for stocks.

Source:
Ibbotson Associates
The
Presidential Election Cycle
One thing that shouldn't come as a surprise is that there's
a pattern of returns tied to the Presidential election years.
In a nutshell, before an election is a good time to invest and
it gets a lot tougher to make money after elections. Interestingly,
it doesn't seem to matter if a Republican or Democrat is elected
or if we elect a new guy or the incumbent.
The key to
this cycle is the Federal Reserve. Even though it's supposed to
be independent, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is nominated
by the President and confirmed by Congress every 7 years. Since
Fed Chairmen tend to like their jobs and seek reappointments,
there's a powerful incentive not to annoy the boss with a lousy
economy when he's seeking reelection.
As a result,
the Fed usually does a good job of pushing the right buttons to
get the economy moving in time for an election. Any excesses that
build up in the economy can always be fixed afterward. Two of
the most important are their ability to set the short-term cost
of bank borrowing and the ability to change the amount of money
in circulation. Both have an impact on valuations in the stock
market, the economy, and corporate profits.
The problem
is that there's a long lead-time between changes in interest rates
or money supply growth and changes in the economy. If the Fed
wants to get the economy moving in time for the election, it has
to start a year earlier. However, investors have a shorter response
time and tend to react more quickly when they see the right buttons
being pushed.

Source:
Ibbotson Associates
As you can
see, next year (2007) typically produces the highest returns in
this four-year cycle. Returns of over 20% are the norm, with smaller
companies usually doing better than blue chips. Returns are a
bit lower in election years, but still above average. For the
next two years, the average historic return has been 7.3-8.3%
in big company stocks and 7.3 - 11.6% in smaller companies.
Caveats
Since
we're living in a country with an oversupply of lawyers, we need
to add a few caveats. The data you've seen so far consists of
average returns. In some years, investors have made a lot of money
in the summer and lost money in the winter. There have been lousy
returns in the years before an election and high returns afterward.
All that professional investors can do is play the odds and these
favor the strategies in this article. However, as the stock market
keeps proving over and over, long shots aren't uncommon.
In addition,
it makes no sense to blindly follow any strategy without asking
if the factors are in place to make it work. Stock prices are
based on earnings per share multiplied by a valuation (a.k.a.
Price to Earnings Ratio or P/E Ratio). To make money in the stock
market, one has to go up faster than the other is going down.
However, to produce high returns, both earnings and valuations
usually have to be going up.
Earnings
Earnings
have powered the rise in stock prices since 2002, as corporate
profits have shown double digit growth since then. For what it's
worth, trend line growth in earnings for the S&P 500 Index
is about 7% over time, making this one of the longest sustained
periods of above-average growth in the last few decades.

Source:
Thomson Baseline
In looking
at this chart, earnings growth peaked about two years ago, but
has been fairly stable for the last year or so at around 14%.
However, we think a slowing economy will take a toll, and expect
earnings growth to slow further in 2007. At present, earnings
per share estimates for the S&P 500 are $90.47 in 2007 versus
$85.20 in 2006, which comes out to an increase of just over 6%.
It's an open secret in the stock market that consensus earnings
estimates are almost always too low, so a realistic estimate might
be a 7-10% increase in earnings in 2006. As a result, it's probably
going to take some help from valuations to produce a double-digit
return in 2007.
Valuations
The
valuation part of this equation has been uncooperative since 2003,
as this is the first bull market in decades that was powered entirely
by earnings. In fact, earnings are up more than stock prices,
as valuations have contracted since 2003. At present, P/E ratios
appear to be around the middle of their historic range. However,
it's important to keep in mind that valuations are driven by a
lot of things, but interest rates are the most important.
All you need
to remember about valuations and interest rates is that they move
in opposite directions. High interest rates tend to produce low
valuations and vice versa. In addition, rising interest rates
usually cause valuations to decline while falling interest rates
tend to produce higher valuations. In a nutshell, the reason for
unexciting returns in the stock market since 2003 is that rising
interest rates have been pushing down P/E ratios, which has partially
offset strong earnings growth.
To give us
some idea of whether current valuations are high or low, we ran
a regression analysis and compared P/E ratios with the yield on
a 5 year Treasury bond. The result was the green line shown on
the chart below, which is our version of fair valuation for stocks.
Even though valuations are in the middle of their historic range,
interest rates are still around the bottom of their range for
the last few decades. As a result, our analysis indicates the
stock market is currently undervalued by over 15%. Having said
that, we aren't going to try to predict when or how the gap will
close, but note that the stock market hasn't been this undervalued
since 1988.

Source: Thomson
Baseline
All
Things Considered
We
think the table has been set for another above average return
in 2007. The Federal Reserve appears to have finally succeeded
in killing real estate, and economic growth is slowing as a result.
The inflation rate is also coming down as energy prices appear
to have stabilized. To us, that spells lower interest rates, and
we expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting short-term interest
rates by the middle of 2007 to get the economy improving in time
for the next Presidential election.
At present,
the stock market appears undervalued, and bonds and real estate
aren't offering much competition. Our expectation is for valuations
in the stock market to be higher in 12 months on higher earnings.
Right now, seasonal factors are also in our favor, as about the
only folks that like winter are skiers and stock market investors.
This combination of the right season and the right part of the
Presidential election cycle only happens at four-year intervals.
While the stock market is always capable of unpleasant surprises,
it would be hard to find a better time to consider investing.
Paul Woods
is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment
advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management
for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit
institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright
© 2006 by Odyssey Advisors LLC
|
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Will
the Democrats Spoil the Santa Rally?
Subscribers
asked that and more in last month's one-on-one chat with Natalie
Pace.
FYI: NataliePace.com
subscribers and contributing writers cover the spectrum in political
leanings, as the articles featured focus on business, investing
and life. We don't exclude anyone based upon politics, race, color
or gender. We do have an emphasis on green, on socially conscious
and on freedom. Having said that, there were many investors, many
who are Democrats themselves, who are wondering if Democrats will
raise taxes on capital gains, cut back defense spending and work
toward more affordable health care and drugs. This Q&A only begins
to address those issues. We have invited our contributing writers
to weigh in over the next few months... So stay tuned!
Question:
How do you think the election results will effect the direction
of the market over the next few months? Will it have an effect
on a possible Santa Rally?
Natalie: There
has been a lot of fever in the marketplace over the last six years.
What I mean to say is that there are a lot of people who are driven
to make dramatic, but short-lived, moves based upon headlines
and analyst recommendations. When those moves are based upon fundamental
economic forces (like no earnings in the NASDAQ), you see major
readjustments, like you saw in the NASDAQ decline from 2000 to
October 2002. Earnings are strong, capital spending is up, we
are almost at full employment and there is a lot of cash in corporations
these days. As Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson said in his
remarks to the Economic Club of New York on November 20, 2006,
"Our economy is strong."
I guess
what Natalie is saying about the holiday season and the elections
is that emotions will dictate the short-term movement, but fundamentals
still hold for the long haul.
That is a
good analysis of the market in general. The short term gain turns
on headlines. The long term gain turns on buying great companies
who are leading their sectors and poised for continued growth,
at a value (a great price). (Yes. Value and Growth count.) The
exuberance of the holiday season may be stronger than the more
short-lived worry of Democrats jumping into control of the House.
(For certain industries, like defense and pharmaceuticals, the
shift toward peace and affordable health care may pose long-term
concerns, however.)
You need to
take a look at the Democratic agenda. Since we now have more of
a "balance" of power, it will be more difficult for
traditional Republican industries (especially defense) to have
blank checks written by the federal government. It would be no
surprise if defense takes a hit over the next few months. The
defense stocks have had a great run-up since 2003, and investors
who have enjoyed the profits might consider reaping their gains.
I wouldn't look for defense to be a long-term hold right now because
in addition to the shift of power in government, there is also
the fact that the stocks are pricey, there may be a curtailment
of contracts and there is a lot of pension plan debt concentrated
in the defense industry. Remember that on December 15th,
companies have to include their pension plan obligations and other
post employment benefit obligations on their earning reports.
So far, pension
plan obligations have not received a lot of headlines, but if
the defense contractors lose investor dollars and start losing
government contracts, then reporters may start reporting on other
problems with the fiscal health of these companies, including
the obligations these companies have to retirees for pensions
and health care. Of course, there are a lot of ifs in that sentence.
There is no doubt that war profits certain industries, and we
are a nation at war.
What other
industries might suffer?
News agencies
are reporting that drug companies will take a hit. I think you
have to realize that there is a difference between biotechnology
and large pharmaceutical companies. For instance, Pfizer and Merck
may suffer from the Democratic leaning toward affordable
health care, whereas a biotechnology company might gain from the
Democratic leaning toward stem cell research and DNA-based cancer
and disease treatments. Realize, however, that health care reform
was resoundingly defeated in the Clinton Administration, and that
it requires bipartisan approval in both houses to get anything
done with the current balance of power. Change will be slow coming,
and should lead with plenty of warning.
I have
a small position with Apple and am wondering what to do with it.
At the moment I have a 30% short term gain. I am a market newbie,
but studying hard.
The Hot News
on Cool Stocks list gives specific, ongoing news on the Apple,
so I encourage you to read that on the 1st of the month
in each new ezine, as well in the middle of the month, when we
publish the mid-month update.
Apple's revenue
growth is still very hot. They are definitely experiencing a "halo"
effect from the iPod's popularity. People are flocking into Apple
retail stores, and there are a lot of first-time Apple computer
buyers as a result. One problem with Apple is that they still
haven't filed their 4Q earnings report and they said that they
will have to restate earnings for the options backdating problems
that they discovered. That could really surprise investors because
it hasn't received a lot of ink.
Apple is a
great company. It is a little pricey, and there is a big problem
still looming that needs to be resolved before anyone can know
where the price will stabilize. If you are willing to take a hit
to your share price in the event of the earnings reports that
are forthcoming, you might still have a great upside, both due
to the Santa Rally and to the fact that Apple is so hot and will
likely be one of the hottest gifts this holiday season with the
iPod. Apple sales are solid and gains in popularity in the future
look to be very entrenched. Steve Jobs is important to a number
of partners now, including Disney. He is also a key, more "solo"
type player at Apple, which makes the company more vulnerable
than say Microsoft, where Bill Gates has a very strong executive
team running the show.
The other
option is to take your profits now, and then try to buy back in
if there is a drop in price once the earnings are restated. CONSIDER
THE SHORT TERM HIGHER TAXATION RATE! NO ONE EVER KNOWS FOR SURE
which way the market rolls on news. Who knew that the markets
would actually GO UP when Korea conducted their nuclear testing!
It looks
like MEMC is still a good buy, especially if there is a great
4th quarter earnings report.
Someone asked
me how they could possibly know anything BEFORE the analysts,
and MEMC might be a good example of how that occurs. Analysts
are reading earnings report, which are the results of sales in
a certain period of time. Oftentimes, there are leading indicators
that are not adequately factored in. For instance, you can see
that the silicon ingot marketplace is tight and that companies
like Evergreen Solar and SunPower are scrambling to get the silicon
needed to fulfill their backlog. MEMC actually cancelled contracts
with one company to fulfill obligations to another company that
was willing to pay a higher price and give them a longer-term
commitment.
According
to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, ''During this
period of tight silicon supply, our willingness to pay higher
prices for silicon on the spot market means we have been able
to increase our market share and satisfy more customers, while
simultaneously increasing our EPS.'' (READ the ARTICLE Sun Powers
Whole Foods, in archived ezine vol. 3, iss. 10, for more information.)
This is information that is publicly available to everyone, but
may not be a large portion of an analyst's considerations. Once
the earnings report shows a big increase in earnings, however,
all of the analysts will alert the world. The key question here
is, "Do you believe that the silicon market is tight, that
prices for silicon are increasing, that MEMC is in a good position
to demand a higher price and that someone is paying it now?"
If the answer is yes, then you may be looking at data that will
become very valuable to a larger population of investors once
the sales show up on the earnings report, the analyst agrees with
you and the story makes worldwide headlines.
How long
do you estimate that it will take for the new EBay acquisitions
to have a positive effect on their growth?
For a more
detailed look at this, please read, "Wow Dow! or NASDAQ Now?"
article in vol. 3, iss. 11. Skype had 136 million registered users
at the end of the third quarter 2006, up 20% from the 113 million
users at the end of previous quarter, while the total number of
registered users on the entire eBay platform is 212 million. That
is a huge customer base, amounting to more than half of the population
of the United States! (Roughly half of eBay's business comes from
the United States. Its international business grew 38 percent
over last year.)
Most Americans
don't realize that Skype is actually growing faster than MySpace.
MySpace only had 124 million registered users (as of 10.28.06).
eBayÔs combined platform boasts almost twice the number of registered
users as MySpace, at 212 million! Based on MySpace's traffic and
popularity, News Corporation (MySpace's parent company) just struck
a deal with Google valued at more than $900 million. eBay's bright
CEO Meg Whitman may yet have a few strategic alliances of her
own up her sleeve. According to CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue
to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay,
Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value
to all involved."
In the meantime,
there is a new product coming out in time for the holiday season
- the Skype Wi-Fi phone (made by Belkin and NetGear). Skype net
revenues totaled $50 million in the third quarter of 2006, representing
a 13% increase from the $44 million reported in the second quarter
of this year. If the new Wi-Fi phone is a popular purchase, look
for a higher total in the 4th quarter. Skype's revenue currently
comes from voice mail, from some long distance charges and from
the sales of hardware. eBay's Shopping.com also benefits from
selling Skype products, like the Skype Wi-Fi phones.
What are
your thoughts on NYX? The stock has been volatile for good reason,
but there has been movement in the last week or so in the right
direction. Long term, what do you think?
The New York
Stock Exchange is not a company that I follow on my list. However,
a quick look at the fundamentals show that this is a stock that
is trading high, near the top of its 52-week range, and is also
expensive, trading at a price to earnings ratio of 85.90. That
high of a ratio needs to be reserved for a VERY HIGH GROWTH stock.
It would surprise me if a legacy organization, like the NYSE,
would qualify as a company that is poised for explosive earnings.
What interests
you so much in the company?
My father-in-law
has/had a seat on the exchange and kind of INSISTED that I take
a position for the long haul. Don't yell at me for breaking all
the rules about doing my homework!
Ah, so you
might do your homework and then decide whether or not to put NYSE
on your radar. You might wait for a better buying opportunity.
Be aware, however, that your current rationale falls under "hot
tip" category (one of the top 9 investing mistakes). You
want to look at investments like mosaics. The more tiles you turn
over, the better picture you have of the desirability of the investment.
I like to have a hundred great reasons for buying stocks, not
just buying blindly because so and so said so!
Sirius
lost less money, so the stock went up a bit today. Is merging
with XM the likely outcome and what do you think about the future
of satellite radio in general?
Satellite
radio is merely the shift from land radio to better reception
worldwide. It is a different market than the iPod music handheld.
I think of satellite radio as radio and iPods as the new C.D.
In terms of consolidation, it is rare for a new marketplace, which
really has only two major players, to have one player gobble up
the other this early in the game. Mel Karmazin has a strong track
record. He's a very valuable CEO for Sirius.
What are
OPEBs and where can we find out which companies owe it?
OPEBs = Other
Post Employment Benefits. You can see which 21 companies of the
30 companies listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average have pension
and Other Post Employment Benefit obligations that exceed $1 billion
in the article, Wow
Dow! Or NASDAQ NOW?" located in the November
ezine, vol. 3, issue 11. There is a pensions stock report card
in the "Faded
Blue Chips" article, which is in an archived ezine,
volume 3, issue 8. Note that this report is from August, so the
General Motors pension debt was much higher. (It is still very
high, but slightly less, as they bought out so many of their current
labor force.)
Is there
any way to see a company's debt (long term, pensions and health)
on Yahoo or Edgar?
Companies
are required to list their pension and OPEBs on their earnings
reports effective December 15, 2006. The easiest way to check
this out would be in the company's earnings reports. Go to www.sec.gov.
Enter in the stock symbol for the company. Select the most recent
earnings report. Do a search on the word "pension" and
it should take you to all of the references for pension in the
report. (This makes it easier than reading these lengthy documents.)
Other keywords that I search on regularly include: pension, debt,
liability and lawsuit. (Of course, you also want to look at sales,
revenue and income, but those are more widely reported on than
the fiscal health considerations of the company!)
Just for
the record (no pun intended), you rock. Thanks for your time.
It matters.
Have a great
week! Remember, when you have diversified control of government
that has the effect of slowing things down a lot. It becomes difficult
for either party to effectively promote their agenda, unless they
get bipartisan support for it.
Upcoming
Chats:
Wednesday,
December 6th, 2006
No. 1 Blue Chip Stock Picker on Wall Street
8:45AM through 9:30AM
Investment Quality Trends has the highest risk-adjusted returns
for the past 20 years. Their focus is dividend-paying Blue Chips.
Chat with the Managing Editor, Kelley Wright, and learn what companies
are hot for 2007.
Wednesday,
December 13th, 2006
Bonds:
Sexy and reliable, unlike .007!
8:45AM
through 9:30AM
Bonds
Chat with money manager Meri Anne Beck-Woods
Learn
the ABCs of AAA, BBB bonds and more from money manager Meri Anne
Beck-Woods. Meri Anne is a 30-year veteran in managing money for
high net worth individuals and institutions. Free to i-Sophia
subscribers.
Wednesday,
January 10th, 2007
Back
up the Truck!
8:45AM
through 9:30AM
Chat
with Money Manager Paul Woods, CEO, Odyssey Advisors
Learn
why Paul Woods is bullish on 2007. Paul is a 30-year veteran in
managing money for high net worth individuals and institutions.
Free to i-Sophia subscribers.
Check
the calendar section frequently for other conferences, galas,
opportunities and chats.
Instructions:
Go to:
NataliePace.com
Click
on: Chat Room
Click
on: Already a Member (If you are not a member, you can register
for 90 days free on the home page)
Enter
in your passwords.
Type
in a nickname for yourself and press LOG IN
In order
to participate in the chat, enter in your questions and press
return.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals
and strategies.
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Something Sexier than
a Bond: A Bond ETF.
by
Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman & COO, Odyssey Advisors
LLC, with research assistance by Sonya Nangoy Krawczyk.
 |
| Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman
& COO, Odyssey Advisors LLC |
Thinking
about investing in the bond market, but not quite sure how to
deal with the complexity of achieving a diversified bond portfolio?
Wondering what happens now that the Federal Reserve Open Market
Committee has stopped raising interest rates? Bond ETFs may
be your answer. In fact, put in "LQD" in the stock quote
field of a finance website such as Yahoo! Finance and you
will find yourself a real-time (or close-enough) quote
of a bond ETF or a bond Exchange-Traded Fund. Buying one share
of a bond ETF would immediately get you exposure to hundreds of
bonds that essentially mirror the exposure, risk and return of
a certain bond index. What's the catch? Read-on to get a better
knowledge of the risks and rewards of a bond ETF.
Traditionally,
bonds are hard to figure out, due to their subtle risks and lack
of liquidity and price transparency. Bond ETFs on the other hand
behave the same as bonds, as their prices react the same way to
changes in interest rates, yield spreads and yield curves. Better
yet, by purchasing a bond ETF, you get the diversification of
about 100 bonds that represent an index such as the Lehman Aggregate
Bond Index or the Lehman TIPS Bond Index. Ever since its debut
in July 2002, Bond ETFs have gained tremendous popularity - but
don't let their names fool ya - they are all part of one investment
family: Barclays Global Investors. Currently you have six options
(listed below) that give you a broad market exposure:
| Name Ticker/Symbol |
|
| iShares
Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund |
AGG |
| iShares
Lehman 7 - 10 YR Treasury Bond Fund |
IEF |
| iShares
GS $ InvesTop Bond Fund |
LQD |
| iShares
Lehman 1-3 Treasury Bond Fund |
SHY |
| iShares
Lehman U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fd |
TIP |
| iShares
Lehman 20+ Treasury Bond Fund |
TLT |
Source: Barclays
Global Investors
To
give you an idea of the volatility of the above-mentioned funds,
the lows reached in this year are compared with November 2006
prices in the following column.
|
Fund
|
Low Price
|
on
Nov 24, 2006 |
| AGG |
$96.00 |
$100.69 |
| IEF |
$70.58 |
$83.48 |
| LQD |
$100.00 |
$108.00 |
| SHY |
$79.26 |
$80.26 |
| TIP |
$98.21 |
$100.35 |
| TLT |
$82.56 |
$90.62 |
Risk
vs. Reward
So if it acts,
feels and even sounds like a bond, is an ETF a bond or a stock?
Indeed, this creature is actually a stock certificate, not a bond.
Therefore, it has the benefits and risks of a stock. Similar to
a stock, there is no guarantee of getting your principal back.
Specifically, when you buy a Treasury note or bond, the issue
is an obligation of the U.S. Government and there is a government
guarantee of a return of stated face value of the bond when it
matures, whereas there is no such guarantee with a bond ETF. On
the other hand, you can buy and sell a bond ETF anytime during
the trading day and ETF shares are priced continuously throughout
the day. Furthermore, to get really fancy, bond ETFs can be sold-short,
traded on margin and hedged with options just like stocks. Too
much risk you say? Don't discount them just yet! They have many
beneficial features for an individual investor.
The
D-word: Diversification
The
real benefit of a Bond ETF is that you could own a bond portfolio
that tracks multiple indices giving you the diversification, liquidity
and price transparency for not much money. Buying common stock
in a company is significantly more risky than buying a bond. Since
income and capital preservation are usually most important for
an older retired investor, they tend to hold more bonds (or bond
ETFs). A younger person, with more time before retirement, can
afford to take on more risk.
The
differences between the ETF's are related to whether they are
invested in longer or shorter maturities, treasuries or corporates
and mortgages. Typically, the shorter the maturity of a bond,
the lower the risk.
Costs
involved in a bond ETF
A Bond ETF and ETFs in general are considered lower
cost investment vehicles. First, you do have to pay trading commissions
similar to that of stocks when you buy and sell a bond ETF. Second,
there is an ongoing management fee of 0.15% or 0.20%, depending
on the fund, that Barclay's Global Fund Advisors receive based
on a percentage of each Fund's average daily net assets. However,
these fees are substantially lower compared to that of a much
better-known traditional bond mutual fund such as PIMCO's Total
Return A (PTTAX) that has an expense ratio of 0.9%. Third, bond
ETFs are more cost efficient than laddering (buying individual
bonds of varying maturities) because you get instant diversification
and a set duration with the purchase of one trade.
Where
are my dividends?
Bond
ETFs pay out interest through monthly dividends to investors (similar
to bond mutual funds) and capital gains are paid out through yearly
dividends.
What
about taxes?
The monthly dividends are taxed as ordinary income. From 2002
on, including 2005, the iShares Funds announced Zero Year-End
Capital Gains Distributions. Taxes can adversely impact fund performance,
especially in a down market where you might pay taxes (on the
dividends) and incur a loss (on the principal share price).
To
review and wrap-up, here are the general pros and cons of investing
in a Bond ETF:
Pros:
Diversification
in the bond market for less money
Greater
knowledge of holdings in fund (2 day lag rather than quarterly)
Liquidity
and price transparency
Lower
tax implications
Lower
costs
Cons:
Risk
of not getting your principal back
Brokerage
fee for buying and selling
Not
enough information about each index available to public
No control
over how and when you want your interest income
So
next time when you're in the mood for something sexier than a
Bond be sure to consider bond ETFs.
Meri Anne
Beck-Woods is Chairman and COO of Odyssey Advisors LLC and independent
SEC registered investment advisor in Los Angeles, California.
She has over 35 years experience in the money management industry
as a fixed income and balanced fund manager. She is a former president
of the Los Angeles Association of Investment women and a member
of the CFA Institute. She is also a co-author of the book Inspiration
To Realization and a lifetime member of the network for empowering
women entrepreneurs. She can be reached at 310 568-4700 and the
website is www.odysseyadvisors.com.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright ©2006, Odyssey Advisors LLC
|
|
Options: Make Sure You Can Hit the Ball
Over the Net Before Attempting.
by Natalie
Pace.
Dear Natalie:
I am particularly interested in options. Sorry I missed
that 9000% increase that occurred with Taser International (since
it was first featured on your stock newsletter)! I am looking
for the next big thing.
Dear Next
Big Thing.
"Trading
Options Isn't Easy," according to eTrade's
tutorial on options, yet there are dozens, if not hundreds,
of sites purporting that options trading is not only easy, but
also cheap and a way to "make more money." Power Options
claims that there is "No need to waste time crunching numbers.
With a few quick clicks PowerOptions does it all for you, presented
in tables for easy comparison." TraderTech.com claims to
have "Options Trading software that predicts with 80% acccurcy."
(We guess it also spells with 80% accuracy.)
So, the companies
selling you software for hundreds of dollars tell you it is easy,
but that is not supported by the data. In fact, according to economist
Kevin Murphy, the George J. Stigler Distinguished Professor of
Economics, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and
a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, 97% of hedge fund managers,
who are the best and brightest on Wall Street, can't even outperform
the market by 3%. (As you can see from the ANNUAL GAINS BY ASSET
CLASS chart below, stocks return between 10.5-12.6% on average
every year.)
There has
been a tremendous amount of volatility in the markets over the
past six years, during which time trends have reversed themselves
multiple times, much to the shock and chagrin of professionals
and novices alike. 1999 and 2003 were great years for gains, while
2000, 2001 and 2002 were all losers.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
So, are you
a dummy to invest in options? Not according to Dr. Myron Scholes,
a Nobel Laureate winning economist and the chairman of the Oak
Hill Platinum Partners. Dr. Scholes suggests that if you are
smart with options, you can have the best of both worlds-
a safe portfolio, with the power to strike rich returns. Dr. Scholes
advised the crowd at the 2006 Milken Conference that, "Options
are wonderful thingsÉ You can put 10% of your money in call options,
and 90% in bonds. You've got the upside - options - with 90% of
the money safe." (Click to listen to the entire breakout
session, entitled Risk
& Return:
Theory vs. Reality, or go to MilkenInstitute.org
and select Events - Conferences - 2006.)
It should
be noted that Dr. Scholes co-created the Black-Scholes options
pricing model, and Oak Hill Platinum Partners is a hedge fund.
His bias toward options is quite natural; he is an expert and
understands all of the risks and rewards, as well as how to evaluate
the best opportunities out there. There are few certified financial
planners who would recommend having 90% in bonds and 10% in call
options, and no professional would EVER propose that for a new
investor. In fact, most brokerages will not allow you to trade
options at all until you have been trading for at least a year.
With options, you lose all of your investment if you are
not "in the money" when the option period expires, whereas
when you buy stocks, you can hold them as long as the company
is publicly traded and sell at any opportunity that you find along
the way.
In investing,
so much falls back to balance, asset allocation, diversification,
education, emotions and risk. There is a huge difference in the
way your body reacts to having real money on the line. No investment
is worth a heart attack. So, if allocation, ETFs, limit order
and diversification are still hieroglyphics to you, start with
the ABCs of investing before you try to out-talk and out-maneuver
the Nobel Laureates on Wall Street. (Education is the best way
to manage your emotional reaction to investing.) The Chicago
Board Options Exchange offers the most reputable tutorial
for options trading. Click or go to CBOE.com
for more information.
As Dr. Scholes
warns, investing in options is very competitive. If you're buying
and selling at a profit, someone else is taking a loss. You wouldn't
wager on beating Roger Federer at tennis until you'd hit a few
aces over the net. However, you might invest in Ivan Ljubicic
hitting 273 more aces than Federer in 2007 (just as he did in
2006). Just make sure you're placing vacation money on the line,
not the ranch, just in case Ivan falls in love and forgets to
practice, over-trains and strains his elbow or gets struck by
lightning in a freak storm in Bosnia (his home country). Even
though small cap stocks have returned 12.6% annually over the
past 36 years (which supports having a long-term position in stocks
for your nest egg), in any given short term period, the markets
can be just very susceptible to unforeseen events (like 9.11).
For the trained professional, volatility equals easy wins over
the inexperienced.

Successful
investing is a relatively simple game of buying low and selling
high. One of the most important factors to "selling high"
is determining your best time to sell. Options trading limits
your selling opportunity to a narrow window, which means that
you have to be right AND the market has to agree with you to be
on the money. Buying stock, on the other hand, allows one the
freedom to hold on and ride out any volatile waves that might
occur in the stock price of the company you believe in.
So back to
your question on Taser and the next big thing! The NataliePace.com
stock newsletter is still at the top of over 800 A-list pundits,
hitting home 45% annualized gains, according to TipsTraders.com.
Which of the companies on our Hot News on Cool Stocks list will
be the next superstar? So many have doubled over the last few
years that odds are good you can find a winner in the bunch, especially
if you pick a handful to invest in. On the other hand, almost
every company on the list has disappointed someone at some point
(including Taser), before moving on to post outstanding gains,
which makes "timing" the breakout moment more tricky.
We are often early in identifying companies that will go on to
greatness.
Read the articles,
digest our rationale for featuring the company and determine if
it fits your investment goals. (We only list one company per month,
or twelve per year, so each company goes through a rigorous analysis
before being featured.) No one knows your goals, risk tolerance
and stomach lining as well as you do.
|
|
Marianne Williamson:
On Peace, Success and Wealth (a Holistic Approach to the Rich
Life).
Q&A
with Stu Zimmerman.
Stu
Zimmerman, the host of Inside Wealth, spoke with the famous spiritual
guru and bestselling author Marianne Williamson, on his show last
month. Marianne Williamson is the mega bestselling author of Return
to Love, Everyday Grace, and her latest book, The Gift of Change:
Spiritual Guidance for a Radically New Life. She's also founder
and chair of the Peace Alliance, a campaign to establish a U.S.
Department of Peace.
Read on
for an excerpt from the Inside
Wealth radio show of October 29, 2006.
Stu Zimmerman
-- Marianne, on Inside Wealth, we look at wealth far beyond material
terms. and we also honor that there is material wealth in part
of our collective conscience here. What is your secret sauce to
your success?
Marianne Williamson
-- Well what you might see as my success and what I might see
as my success might be two different things. So when you say my
success as a person, what do you mean exactly as that? Do you
mean my commercial success, my professional success?
Define
success in your termsÉ
Well I can
tell you this: my experience as well as my faith teaches me that
success has to do with who I am as a human being and how I am
doing in my relationships with people around me. That to me is
the highest level of success. And sometimes we can have commercial
success or professional success at the expense of our most base
fundamental human success - and to me that is a terrible price
to pay. There is a line in The Course of Miracles that
says, "Some of your greatest successes you deem to be failures
and some of your greatest failures you deem success." In
addition, even within the realm of my professional work, it's
been interesting to me because some of the times when I felt
I was the most sort of right on and aligned with my heart and
what my gut felt I needed to be saying, were times that I was
the least commercially successful. The books, for instance,
that I've written that I felt were the most important or the most
passionate cry from my heart were not always my most successful
properties as it were.
So I really
feel whether it's that I've aged or whatever, I've really come
to understand for myself anyway that the whole notion of what
success means in this country, I do not resonate with it. If my
daughter is happy, if my daughter is well adjusted, if my daughter
is doing well in school, that to me is huge success. And with
other issues of professional success, if I'm doing what I feel
in my heart is the highest contribution I can make on any given
day, and I'm in harmonious relationship with all the various aspects
of my work, to me that is professional success. Monetary success
is a kind of byproduct of all of that. So to me it all goes back
to that line, "Seek ye first the kingdom of heaven and all
else will be added unto you."
If I take
care of the deepest level of success that I can in every area,
then one of the byproducts happens to be financial success. And
other times, even if I do feel like I'm doing the right
thing, you know financial success, professional success might
not come from it, but that does not mean I did the wrong thing.
So I think that's the point for me, it's the whole word "success."
I think America has a funny view of what success means.
You are
preaching to the choir here because that's very much about what
this program is about. On our program, we have also been focusing
on peace because peace is the largest building block to wealth,
whether it's the kind of inside wealth that money can't buy, or
having a form of inner peace, or even in terms of an outer peace
and an outer wealth. If we have war, there is a huge financial
cost, let alone spiritual cost. You're talking about a new kind
of activism with the Peace Alliance.
Well I wouldn't
say I'm talking about a new kind of activism because Martin Luther
King and Gandhi have firmly established the ethers of human behavior,
exactly the habit patterns I'm talking about mentally and materially.
So I don't think I'm talking about a new kind of activism
but I am talking about bringing all of ourselves to the table.
I'm talking about the fact that politics as it is practiced certainly
in the United States today can be likened to allopathic medicine,
where you simply wait for the symptom to occur and then you try
to suppress or eradicate the symptom without feeling causally
- causal issues, emotional issues, psychological issues etc. And
so, just as health is more than just the absence of sickness,
I think peace is more than the absence the war. And we
now know that if you want to be healthy, you can't just wait until
you get sick and try to eradicate the symptoms, you try to proactively
cultivate health. And I think that's the evolution we're now
experiencing regarding peace and war. You don't just wait till
there's violence and try to suppress it to either prisons or warfare,
you actually proactively seek the social conditions, the psychological
and emotional patterns to the best of your ability that are more
likely to produce peaceful hearts and peaceful people and peaceful
communities, and a peaceful world.
So I think
there's a revolution in our consciousness about this, and I think
that people who have a background in personal growth, in spirituality,
in psychology, we are the last people who should be sitting out
of the political process for that very reason. We understand there
is a back-story. You know, the worldly events can be like the
tip of an iceberg and the people that are visionary are who have
a vision that goes beyond the tip of the iceberg. What's going
on underneath? What's the story beyond the story? What's going
on underneath always has to do with what's happening inside the
people that lash out. Frank Isibelt in the last speech he ever
wrote said, "We must do more than end war. We must end the
beginnings of all wars."
In a book
I wrote called, The Healing of the Whole of America, my
basic point was you know everyone's going around saying it's a
peaceful world but if you ask me, it has to do with what neighborhood
you live in, it has to do with what part of the world. Martin
Luther King said, "There are two kinds of peace: negative
peace and positive peace." Negative peace is where there's
no outright conflict, but where there's still an underlying tension
and anxiety. Positive peace, he said, "We can only have in
the presence of justice and brotherhood."
So I think
a lot of people try to play it neutral on the planet, and this
is simply not a neutral moment. During the 1960s, we said "if
you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem."
So I think what we've got on the planet today is that humanity
is being safe. We're being challenged by a very, very strong point
being made, and that point is that if you are just trying to
live your life, being ok, but not proactively seeking to make
the world better, seeking to put love into the world, then what
you're doing is actually contributing to a status quo which is
anything but loving. So the neutral days are over. If you're not
trying to better the world, you are contributing to a world that's
falling apart.
That's
akin to being silent when you're witnessing atrocity taking place,
and just not participating in it, but not changing it, either.
Right, exactly.
And the line has become so famous from Edmund Burke, "The
only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for a few good people
to do nothing."
Yes. And
now when we're talking about peace here - and we're talking about
a proactive peace - doesn't it really start - as opposed to us
pointing the finger at all the people out there who are warring
with each other, does it start with us? Each of us has our own
issues and struggles in life that leads our souls to be not at
peace, including specifically what society tells us success is.
MW: Well I
think first of all, of course it starts with us because everything
starts with you. But I think what a higher consciousness community
needs to perhaps recognize is, although it may start with you,
it must not end with you. When it comes to external work, internal
work, it's not either or. It's both, and the yin yang of life.
So yes, absolutely we must address the wars inside ourselves because
as Gandhi said, "The end is inherit in the means." An
angry generation will not bring peace. Unless we deal with the
shadow within ourselves, we do not have any fundamental capacity
to cast out the shadows of the world. And all of that having been
said, some of the wars that we do fight end up inside ourselves
have to do with what you were saying, have to do with whether
or not I'm a success, etc., each of us having our own little private
battles. But I don't think ultimately there's that intimate a
connection between whether or not someone is feeling successful
in their profession and whether or not we are successful at turning
the historical trajectory around. I think ultimately, what Americans
have to remember is that some very, very wealthy, successful people
were in the World Trade Center on the day it was hit.
To listen
to the complete interview between Stu Zimmeran and Marianne
Williamson, click on Marianne
Williamson or go to InsideWealth.net.
To find out more about the Peace Alliance's efforts to establish
a U.S. Department of Peace, go to ThePeaceAlliance.org.
Join Marianne Williamson and Deepak Chopra at
the 2007 Peace
Alliance Annual Conference, February 3-5, 2007 in Washington,
D.C.
You can find
more about Marianne Williamson at Marianne.com.
Holiday
Tip from Stu Zimmerman:
One
of the great things about family is that you accept each other's
differences. "Yeah so and so may be off his rocker, but he's
family." You love the person simply because they're part
of the family, and that's so far beyond what money can buy.
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Networking:
Antidote to the Isolation of Working at Home AND Lifeline in the
Event of Tragedy.
by
Janet Hanson, founder of 85
Broads, a Global Women's Network.
Excerpt from More
Than 85 Broads.
This
is the third installment from the chapter "A View From a
Broad," continued from last month's ezine.
On
September 10, 2001, executives from Johnnie Walker joined us for
a three-day media event at the Tribeca Grand Hotel, which would
include announcing the winners of the contest on the morning of
September 11.
 |
| Photo:
Janet and Friends Race for a Cure |
A
few weeks after our reunion at the Water Club, I realized that
the network would never really take off unless we had a powerful
way to stay connected. I happened to be talking to Anne Casscells,
one of the smartest women I ever worked with at Goldman Sachs,
and I mentioned that our gathering had all the makings of a "bad
high school reunion," where you see everybody, exchange info
and phone numbers, and then don't have any further interaction
for five years. Anne thought about it for a second and then said,
"Why don't you Ôdot-com' the sucker?"
What
Anne realized was that we could never become a true global powerhouse
if we didn't exist in cyberspace where women could connect with
each other 24/7. For the next two years, the Milestone Capital
tech team (two brilliant young graduates from Oberlin College)
spent some part of every day working on creating www.85Broads.com.
In November of 1999, Reed Abelson of The New York Times wrote
an article on the front page of the Business Section titled "A
Corporate Alumni Network Just for Women."
Reed
had spent several days at our office in Yonkers interviewing the
tech team, me, and other members of 85 Broads. The cool thing
was that she mentioned that as an independent network, 85 Broads
was not just for alumnae but for women who were currently
at Goldman Sachs as well. The response to her article was awesome
and in the days that followed, our membership skyrocketed to over
1,000 women. She got my "voice" just right, which was
that I felt a keen sense of disconnection and isolation after
leaving Goldman in 1987 and that I had created the 85 Broads network
to help women stay connected to other smart womenÑnot only during
their careers but throughout their entire lives.
In
the spring of 2000, I happened to be at Harvard Business School
talking to students who belonged to the Women's Student Association.
I was there to talk about the pros and cons of being an entrepreneur,
and I somehow got off on a tangent about women in the 85 Broads
network who had left GS to start their own businesses. Everyone
present knew that 85 Broads was a network for current and former
Goldman Sachs women and that I was the founder. Finally one gal
raised her hand and said: "I think it's great that you launched
the network, but I never worked at Goldman and don't see myself
working for Goldman in the future, so you're talking about a network
I can't join!"
The
next day I sent an email out to the women at Harvard Business
School announcing the launch of Broad2BroadÑa unique "co-mentoring"
initiative. In my email I stated that I thought that mentor
implied "older" and "wiser" and that mentee
implied "junior" and " less experienced."
Co-mentoring was a term I made up to describe what I thought
the relationship between these two groups should be, which was
one of equals. I might be older and have worked longer but the
gals at HBS, who I fondly referred to as "rockets,"
brought a unique set of skills to the table that I simply did
not possess. These super smart women spoke the "language"
of technology and more importantly, understood its many applications.
I could barely send an email and wouldn't have known what a hard
drive was if it hit me in the face. For the first time, a women's
network embraced its youngest members as professional equals and
as true partners, which was a major paradigm shift.
What
I passionately loved was being an "agent of change."
Over the next few years, our Broad2Broad co-mentoring initiative
would be rolled out on over 30 graduate business school campuses,
both in the United States and abroad.
In
February of 2001, my friend Michael Stoner asked me to join the
board of the Johnnie Walker "Keep Walking" campaign.
The purpose of the campaign was to award $500,000 in funding to
individuals who had entered the "Keep Walking" business
plan competition. That spring, we spent three days at Fisher Island
in Florida with the PR and advertising people from Johnnie Walker
to hone the message. Over the next few months, hundreds of business
plans were submitted and culled for the best, most inspirational
proposals, which even included a young cancer survivor who needed
funding to climb Mt. Everest. On September 10, 2001, executives
from Johnnie Walker joined us for a three-day media event at the
Tribeca Grand Hotel, which would include announcing the winners
of the contest on the morning of September 11.
On
the afternoon of September 10, I was at Citigroup for a meeting
with Lisa Caputo, the president of Women & Co. I got caught
in a hellacious downpour as I left 399 Park Avenue to drive down
to the Tribeca Grand, which was just a few blocks north of the
World Trade Center. The folks from Johnnie Walker had arranged
for us to have dinner at City Hall, a great Manhattan restaurant.
Before we left the hotel for the restaurant, we were in a private
room near the lobby having a drinkÑall of us commented that the
lightning and thunder looked and sounded fakeÑlike the kind you'd
see and hear in a 1950's horror movie.
The
next morning was gorgeousÑnot a cloud in the sky and not even
a whiff of humidity. We were to be downstairs by 8 a.m. to go
to the Altman Building for the final candidate presentations and
the announcement of the winners. The folks at Johnnie Walker had
been working on the campaign for two years and were hoping that
it would be one of the biggest media events in New York City that
day. The event planners called my room several times to tell me
to step on it as I was upstairs sending out last minute emails
and had lost track of the time. I left the Tribeca Grand at 8:25
a.m. and thought what a fun day it would be.
One
of the other board members was Josie Natori, who was a legend
in the lingerie business. Josie and I were having breakfast together,
and I remember we were talking about golf. Then the oddest thing
happened. Two of the staffers from Johnnie Walker were huddled
just a few feet from where Josie and I were sitting, and I heard
one of them say "World Trade Center." I thought to myselfÑ
no one ever says "World Trade Center" unless something
bad is happening.
We
were asked to come into the main room where all of the cameras
and TV equipment were set up to listen to the presentations of
the final candidates who were still in the running for funding
for their business idea. It was now 9:15 a.m. At about that time,
my cell phone rang. I saw that it was Jeff calling me from our
office and without listening, very tersely said, "I have
to call you back," and hung up. Then other board members'
cell phones started to ring and before we knew it, the show was
over. The TVs were switched to CBS and CNN, and we all raced outside
onto the street to see what was happening. I can remember being
overwhelmed again by how blue the sky was and how it just didn't
make any sense that the Trade Center was on fire. We were still
operating under the "small Cessna crashing" scenario,
so everybody was hopeful that the damage was minor.
But
then the real and awful truth started to unfold on TV. Alan Chambers,
who was one of the board members and whose wife Michelle was back
at the Tribeca Grand, decided that he was going to walk back to
the hotel to make sure she was all right. By now, the towers had
fallen and while we were walking south, everyone else seemed to
be walking north. Everybody it seemed needed to be outside. The
police allowed us to cross the tape after we showed them our hotel
keys. "Keep Walking" now took on a very sad and somber
connotation.
Camilo
Cruz, a board member from Miami, had what we figured was the honeymoon
suite in the hotel. The Tribeca Grand only has eight floors and
of all bizarre coincidences, Camilo's room had a staircase that
led straight up to the roof. Alan, Michelle, Camilo and I spent
the next five hours on the roof of the hotel taking video footage
and camera shots of what our eyes absolutely couldn't believe
we were seeing. The emergency equipment being brought in made
its way down Church Street as if in a funeral cortege. We watched
as 7 World Trade fell down and not long after, the hotel turned
off all the gas, fearing a gas main explosion in the area. That
was when we decided to leave the roof and head down to the lobby
and stay there.
At
4:30 on the morning of September 12, I packed up my laptop and
all my luggage and headed north for Grand Central. None of the
subway stations were operating until I got to 14th Street. I was
exhausted and absolutely numb. I took the train to Yonkers and
walked in with all my gear. Meredith and Christopher were thrilled
to hear that I was out of the city, as were my parents.
On
Thursday, September 13, I sent the following email out to every
member of the 85 Broads network:
Maggie
Craddock, a true friend of 85 Broads, has offered to counsel
any of our members who are struggling with stress-related
issues in the aftermath of the World Trade Center tragedy
on a strictly pro bono basis.
Maggie
is a licensed therapist and currently provides executive coaching
to many individuals in the Wall Street community, including
members of 85 Broads. As many of you know, Maggie spoke at
our first event last fall. Please don't hesitate to contact
her.
Our
thoughts and prayers are with all those who worked at the World
Trade Center, including members of 85 Broads, as well as those
who have lost friends and family in this unfathomable
tragedy.
TO
BE CONTINUED NEXT MONTHÉ
In
her new book, More
than 85 Broads, trailblazing superstar Janet Hanson
introduces us to some of the most remarkable, courageous, and
successful members of 85
Broads, a global women's network she founded in 1999. Women--and
men--will want to discover "the power of the network" at every
stage of their careers and lives.
|
|
Work Fewer Hours, Make
More Money.
by
Chellie Campbell,
Author of Zero
to Zillionaire.
If you
say your number one priority in life is your family, but you're
working 80-hour weeks, you're lying to yourselfÑand your family.
You need to look over the Life Buffet, choose to put a few choice
things on your plate and leave the rest for another time. It's
time to simplify. Get up from the table before you are overstuffed.
If we organize our priorities better, we can scrape a lot of fat
and filler off our plates.
 |
| Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire. |
The secret
is that you can make more money if you work less. When you're
overwhelmed, you can't be efficient or effectiveÑyou usually have
trouble just getting started on all the tasks you have to do.
When you're overwhelmed, you find yourself pushing too hard, driving
too fast, and there's certainly no singing in parking lots.
I'm heartily
tired of listening to the endless complaining litanies "I'm
too busy," "I'm so overwhelmed" and the new phrase
du jour "I have too much on my plate." Life is
a big schmorgasbord, and it is tempting to try to pile it higher
and higher with tasty morsels. But half of what you put on your
plate isn't nourishing you, it's only weighing you down. You end
up bloated and uncomfortable, yet you go back for seconds and
then desert. Everything looks so good and you don't want to miss
out on anything. Yet your hunger is not appeased; you are still
looking for that perfect tasty bite.
So people
work sixty, seventy, eighty hours a week at their job, meanwhile
they have a spouse and three children and a hobby and a spiritual
group and a non-profit fundraiser they volunteered for and friends
they have to keep up with and shopping and visiting grandma in
the nursing home and taking out the trash and doing the bank reconciliation
and arranging the family vacation and Christmas shopping on the
vacation so that's all done before the rush is on and grocery
shopping and the favorite television show and cooking and cleaning
andÉ
Éand when
was I going to write that screenplay? When was I going to learn
to fly that plane? Dance the swing? Learn to sing? Play ball with
my daughter? Fly a kite with my son?
You can have
everything you want, just not all at once. You need to look over
the Life Buffet, choose to put a few choice things on your plate
and leave the rest for another time. It's time to simplify. Get
up from the table before you are overstuffed. If we organize our
priorities better, we can scrape a lot of fat and filler off our
plates.
A client of
mine named Kathy called frantically one day: "Chellie, you've
got to help me! I have too much to do and I've got to get some
help organizing and managing my time."
When I showed
up at her office to help, she was in a sorry state, and handed
me her six-page to-do list. I looked at it briefly and said, "Well,
you can't get all this done this week."
She stared
at me. "That's not this week's list," she said, "that's
today!"
I hung my
head in my hands with a sigh. No wonder she was so frantic all
the time. She was smart and talented and operating on a high wavelength
but it was all frazzled. She reminded me of the people on the
old Star Trek episodes where they moved so fast you couldn't
see themÑyou just heard a high-pitched buzzing in your ears as
they passed by.
I told her
I was sorry to disappoint her, but I hadn't brought my magic wand
with me and I couldn't create another 36 hours in the day for
her to get all her projects done. She had signed up for too many
and piled her plate high with obligations. There was nothing to
do but scrape off half of the stuff on her plate into the garbage
pail. She needed to resign from a bunch of projects.
She was horrified
when I told her that, of course. "Well, I said I would do
these things," she lamented. "I can't just call them
up and say I can't get it all done."
"Yes,
Kathy, you can," I said. "If you died tonight, guess
what? They'd appoint someone else to take your place tomorrow.
When a poker player leaves the table, nobody cares where he's
going or why. The dealer just hollers ÔSeat open' and someone
else fills the seat. Some of your obligations have to go, and
it'd be better if you did it now voluntarily instead of later
because you were dead from overwork."
That made
an impression. Then we got to work separating out the choice tasty
morsels on her plate from the tofu and the peas (or whatever is
your least favorite food).
Here's how
you do it:
- Make
a list of everything on your plate.
- Reorganize
the list in order of priority.
- Chop
off the bottom third.
- Call
everyone you need to call that's part of the bottom third
and resign, cancel, abdicate, cede, quit, withdraw, relinquish,
retract and surrender.
You are
not your to-do list. You made up your to-do list. You can
opt out of anything on it anytime you choose. The time to choose
is now.
Spending
the Time of Your Life
Before
deciding how you want to spend your time, you might like
to take a look at how you are spending your time. Make
a checklist to help figure this out. Be honestÑyou don't have
to show your list to anyone else so don't fool yourself. You will
clearly see the difference between what you think you are committed
to having in your life and what you actually spend your time on.
There are 168 hours in every week. How many hours are you spending
on your number one priorities? Sending out ships? Eating? Sleeping?
Having fun? How many hours do you spend with your spouse? How
many hours are you spending on income producing activities? Sales
calls? Email?
Look at the
truth of your life in this list. Are there things you would like
to change? How is the ratio of fun vs. work? How many hours are
you spending doing income-producing activities? If you own a business
and want to double your income, double the time you're spending
on doing the things that make money. Are you spending time with
your spouse? I read that the average American couple spends approximately
five minutes a day talking with each other. That's 35 minutes
out of 168 hours a week. How can you expect a relationship to
last if you only give it that much time and attention? Perhaps
you're not married yet, but want to be. Then how much time are
you spending dating? Going to singles events? Sending out relation-ships?
How about time with your kids? What about that novel you want
to write?
Yeah, yeah,
I know, it's just that you have so much on your plateÉ
Let me give
you a tip: Break the damn plate and start over from scratch. Grab
a new plate, go back to the buffet line, and just pick out the
delicacies you really want. Then write out your new list in order
of priority. And make sure you give the highest priority items
the most amount of time.
When you are
committed to a project, you put it at the top of your list. I'll
never forget an interview I saw on television with author Toni
Morrison. When she was writing her first novel, she was working
full-time and raising children. Yet she had a burning desire to
write. She said she wrote "at the edges of the day,"
before the children woke up in the morning and after they went
to bed at night. She got her novel published and kept writing.
In 1993, she was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature.
We may not
all win prizes, but we can all write at the edges of the day if
our desire and commitment is strong enough. Look at your Zillionaire
goals again. Have you scheduled time for their accomplishment?
Have you scheduled time for positive thinking? Are you sending
out ships every week? What are you committed to having in your
life and how are you backing that up with the commitment of your
time?
If you say
your number one priority in life is your family, but you're working
80-hour weeks, you're lying to yourselfÑand your family. You either
need to change your hours, change your job, or own the fact that
your family is not your number one priority. If you take the time
to reflect, you may find you don't want that fast-track at work
if it means traveling too many weeks away from your loved ones.
You may opt for job-sharing, working part-time, or becoming a
stay-at-home parent for a while. You may want to start your own
business and keep it small and the hours reasonable. You may find
you are happier with more free time to enjoy your family than
you are with more money, bigger houses, fancier cars, or gourmet
meals.
Chellie Campbell
is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy
Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction®
Workshops on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and
gives programs throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's
Ezine at www.chellie.com.
|
|
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New
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This month we want to know what the best holiday gift for guys
and girls are. Go to www.NataliePace.com,
and click on the survey question to participate in all three surveys.
We welcome your input and that of your friends!
Sharing
Wisdom Bulletin Board: This has been, by far, one of the
most popular features at NataliePace.com. A young entrepreneur
asked a question about expanding her business, which was answered
by the President emeritus of NAWBO and the woman who planned the
last Democratic National Convention! A young man asked about getting
into the financial world, and was answered by one of the top economists
in the U.S. and a very respected money manager. Here, perhaps
more than any bulletin board available, we make sure that your
questions are addressed by the A-list!
Calendar:
Check the Calendar section of our web site frequently
for information on Members Only Chats (with millionaire money
managers and CEOs), conferences and networking opportunities.
This month, in addition to some exclusive holiday events, you
can nominate a Woman of Excellence for the NAFE conference. Participate
in our chat with the #1 Blue Chip Stock Picker on Wall Street,
Kelley Wright, on December 6th. There is also a Bond
Chat on December 13th and a Stocks Chat January 10th.
For more information, go to the Calendar section of the site!

Quote
of the Day: We scour the top stories and the top speeches
and lectures of policymakers, Federal Reserve Board members, executives,
business gurus, analysts and more to bring you inspiring and informative
quotes.
Helpful
Tips:
- We recommend
printing out the ezine, and reading it like you would
a magazine Ñ at your leisure, at the doctor's office, etc. If
you put it on the bed stand or some other place where you do
your light reading, you will find that the articles are designed
to be entertaining and to be read in 10-15 minutes. Why not
pick up something that will increase your brainpower (and possibly
your wallet), instead of worrying about whether or not Brangelina
is pregnant again? (btw: We borrow some of our headlines from
the fanzines, in the hopes of making money just a little bit
more interesting.)
- Our record
for picking outstanding leaders in their sector is unmatched,
well outperforming the markets. Google, Genentech, Taser
and OverstockÑwe picked them all first. If you wonder
what this year's headlines are going to be, then it pays to
check out the ezine! (NP is ranked at the top of over
800 A-list pundits in the US for stock picking!) Be
sure to print out the Stock Report Card, which is located
in every ezine, as an embedded link in the feature article.
- Sharing
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web site.
|
|
Christmas Comes Early
To Wall Street.
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes our Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
Featuring
27 great companies earning almost 50 cents on the dollar every
year, according to TipsTraders.com,
versus just five that have gone slightly south.
KB
Home
After leading
KB Home for 34 years, Mr. Karatz has retired as Chairman and CEO,
and has promised to pay approximately $13 million back to the
company, according to a company press release. It should be noted,
however, that the terms of Mr. Karatz's departure are still being
negotiated, and that it is highly likely that a Chairman and CEO
of his longevity at the company will receive a golden parachute
- more than enough to offset the pain of the $13 million payback.
For more information, read the Mid-Month report, available online
under the Online Magazine link.
Santa
Rally
Investors
are excited by the Santa Rally and the 2007 pre-election year
trend (which is typically the strongest performing year in the
Presidential election cycle). 2003, another pre-election year,
was easily the most exciting year on Wall Street out of the past
six years. 1999, also a pre-election year, was one of the most
rewarding years for investors on record - providing they got out
before the March 2000 turning point.
Additionally,
there is, according to Citigroup's chief analyst Tobias Levkovich,
a high level of cash relative to market capitalization in corporations.
(NOTE: There are certain sectors over others where the cash is
concentrated. Microsoft has a war chest of cash, while General
Motors, aka Generous Motors, owes more than 2.5 times the value
of the company in pension and other post employment benefit obligations
to its retirees and even more in long term debt). This combined
with positive earnings reports has fueled the rally in stocks,
with investors favoring the large caps in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average over the NASDAQ (while analysts like Levkovich favor technology).
We
believe the WOW DOW! trend will reverse once investors learn how
much the legacy corporations owe to retirees. Additionally, it
is unlikely that defense contractors will continue to fare so
well with a Democratic controlled Congress. We are usually early
on trends, so there might be some legs left in these companies
over the short term. There is a perceivable shift, however, from
the old line to the new. You see it in Toyota's dominance over
Ford and General Motors. You see it in the rise of Google and
MySpace over old line media. You see it in the shift from paper
trails to cyber space. There is real money these days in technology,
and a shift, at least in sentiment, from fossil fuels to renewable,
sustainable energy sources.
For more
information, please read the "Wow
Dow! Or NASDAQ Now?" article, in vol. 3, iss. 11.
In
my, "Wow Dow!" article, I outline the reasons why the
companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are, in my view,
riskier than investors realize, while there are a number of companies
in the NASDAQ that are Cinderella growth stories. Don't let the
1999 NASDAQ hangover keep you from realizing that the Internet
revolution is here to stay this time around.
Also,
don't let dividends, buybacks and low price to earnings ratios
seduce you into ignoring ballooning debt, a whale of a load of
pension plan obligations and other obligations that are not factored
into the bottom line of the earnings reports of many of the Dow
Jones Industrial Average legacy corporations. What you don't know
about debt, pension and health insurance obligations, especially
in sectors like auto manufacturing, defense and airlines could
crush your nest egg. As Gretchen Morgenson notes in her excellent
November 12, 2006 article, "Why Buybacks Aren't Always Good
News," "Over the past two years, 78 S&P companies
have conducted buybacks that resulted in negative cash flow, and
33 of those then used EPS as a measure by which to compensate
executives -- begging the question whether the buybacks were intended
specifically to boost bonus payouts."
With
the Santa Rally kicking in, I wouldn't be in a hurry to sell much
right now, but I would also be equally judicial with what I buy.
The Feds may have paused with their rate hikes, but they haven't
quenched their concern over inflation, and terrorism appears to
be as popular as ever. Both inflation and terrorist attacks on
homeland soil are buzz kills for any market rally.
Bondholders
particularly should be aware of the fact that having so much of
our debt held abroad means that the foreign vote does affect yields.
As Chairman Ben Bernanke reported at the Fourth ECB Central Banking
Conference in Frankfurt, Germany on November 10th,
"Between one-half and two-thirds of U.S. currency is held
abroad. As a consequence, cross-border currency flows, which can
be estimated only imprecisely, may lead to sharp changes in currency
outstanding and in the monetary base that are largely unrelated
to domestic conditions."
There
is no need for panic. The U.S. has strategic global investments
in the same countries that are holding our currency (like China,
Japan and more). But neither is there need for irrational exuberance.
As has been the case forever, make sure that you have a diversified
portfolio with a proper percentage "safe" from risk.
In your stocks on steroids portfolio, that smaller portion where
you take on higher risk to achieve higher gains, investors who
buy low and sell high and take their profits in shorter windows
have been richly rewarded over the past six years. This stock
newsletter is a great example of the rich rewards of that policy
- 47.9 cents on the dollar every year. Our recipe is simple: 1)
Invest in what you know and love. 2) Pick the leader in the sector.
3) Buy low; sell high. Works almost every time - 26 out of 31
picks on this chart alone!
Select
your favorite corporations, but be patient about buying in on
opportunity. The markets have been very volatile over the past
few years, providing ample events and key moments to buy in.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Interest
Rates: Pause, Cut or Raise? The
Federal Open Market Committee paused in August, September
and October, after raising interest rates 17 consecutive times
prior. The federal funds rate remains at 5-Å%. "Readings
on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of
resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation
pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate
over time," according to the Federal Open Market Committee
press release. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December
12, 2006. Many economists believe the next move will be
a cut, sometime in 2007. Oil prices play a big role, and lately
the price of gas at the pump has been a real relief! (No action
is predicted this December.)
- Interested
in reading the minutes of the October meeting for yourself?
You can. They are available online. Click on FOMC
Minutes to read! The
tentative meeting schedule for the rest of 2006 is: December
12, 2006. The 2007 calendar is: January 30-31, 2007, March
20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday), May 9 (Wednesday), June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday),
August 7 (Tuesday), September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31
(Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30,
2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact that the Federal Open Market
Committee has decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions
from two to four is an indicator that there is double the
concern over managing the economy in the coming months and
years.
- Online
Chats: check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com
regularly. There are three wonderful opportunities to chat
one-on-one with millionaire money managers about Blue Chips,
stocks and bonds over the next two months! Don't miss out.
Bottom
Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important
information, but you need to consult your financial planner to
determine your best strategy for using the information. That will
depend upon your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance
and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio
is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain
higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't
bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage
and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service
with a mission of providing the news and information you need
to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity.
Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying
or selling any security.
Full
disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own under the column
"NP OWNS?"
Hot
Stocks
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies
that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in
a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well. There are never any guarantees in life, and all
stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial
planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.
Highlighted
Companies (Hot List):
Citigroup
(C)
Gap
(GPS)
Genentech
(DNA)
Intuit
(INTU)
MEMC
Electronics (WFR)
Sirius
Satellite Radio (SIRI)
Suntech
Holdings (STP), a Chinese-based company, ADR
U.S.
Gold (USGL), trading off the boards in the US and on the TSX.
DELETIONS:
Bioteq
Environmental. (Microcaps are extremely vulnerable to
changes in the weather. With builders and real estate falling
off, so could demand for commodities, which could mean less money
spent on environmental clean-up.) 144% gains are good enough
for us.
Rio
Tinto. With copper supplies increasing, building in the
U.S. tapering off and building in China curtailed by the government,
the copper futures have taken a beating this month. On November
10, 2006, copper futures plunged to a 4-ý month low. (See
below for additional information on Rio Tinto.) 145%
gains are good enough for us.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
11.10.06
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Agilent
(Green)
|
No
|
A
|
$32.69
|
$31.99
|
$39.54
$26.96
|
-2%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on renewable
energy.
|
|
Blockbuster
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
BBI
|
$3.61
|
$5.33
|
$10.65
$3.19
|
+47.6%
|
|
CEO
John Antioco purchased $1 million (value) shares on 11.21.06
at $4.66 each. According to Antioco, Blockbuster is in talks
to sell off parts of its international operations, including
Blockbuster Taiwan. Investors liked the news, bought in
and pushed the stock price up. Launched TotalAccess, a NetFlix
like mail-in movie service for $5.99 -- $17.99 month on
11.2.06. BBI had approximately 1.5 million online subscribers
as of September 30, 2006, including approximately 100,000
trial subscribers at quarter-end who subsequently converted
to paying members. The 2006 year-end goal is 2 million online
subscribers. Revenues for the third quarter of 2006 declined
2.9% to $1.33 billion compared with $1.37 billion for the
third quarter of last year. See vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster
Sale." Very high risk. Distressed acquisition play
in a heated up M&A environment? Jules Haimovitz was
added to its board on 5.26.06. Haimovitz is currently vice
chairman and managing partner of TV production company Dick
Clark Productions Inc. He was formerly president of MGM
Networks Inc., a unit of Metro Goldwyn Mayer Inc., and served
as president and chief operating officer of TV programming
syndicator King World Productions Inc. Currently in a legal
battle with NetFlix over the right to rent movies through
the mail, which NetFlix claims to own the patent on. According
to the AP, BBI is still considering the sale of some assets,
and will, in the meantime, invest in a significant number
of new GameStation stores during 2007.
|
|
Citigroup
|
No
|
C
|
$50.38
|
$49.64
|
$51.33
$43.83
|
Flat
|
|
Refer
to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details
on Citigroup's appeal. According to an Associated Press
report on 11.29.06, Citigroup will be one of the first banks
operating in China. China is due to open its banking sector
fully to foreign competition by Dec. 11 under conditions
set when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
Rising interest rates and the current M&A mania are
positive for Citigroup. At long last, things are starting
to look favorable for the red umbrella.
|
|
Disney
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$32.82
|
$33.85
$23.77
|
+31%
|
|
Diluted
earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter increased
89% to $0.36, compared to $0.19 in the prior-year period,
reflecting growth at Studio Entertainment, Parks and Resorts,
and Media Networks. The Company generated $4.8 billion in
free cash flow during fiscal 2006 compared to $2.4 billion
in the prior year, reflecting an increase of $1.8 billion
in cash provided by operations and a decrease of $0.5 billion
in capital expenditures. Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by
Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film company
meets the most successful family media company meets the
most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds like
the happiest place on Earth to us. As the largest individual
stockholder, Steve Jobs may be the prime candidate for the
new Chairman of the Board. During the year end, September
30, 2006, the Company repurchased 243 million shares for
$6.9 billion, of which 96 million shares were purchased
for $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter. As of September
30, 2006, the Company had authorization in place to repurchase
approximately 206 million additional shares. Pirates
of the Caribbean blockbusters equal film profits, DVD
profits and renewed interest in the theme parks!
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
eBAY
|
$29.75
|
$31.77
|
$47.86
$22.83
|
+7%
|
|
See
the articles, "Wow Dow," in vol. 3, iss. 11 and,
"eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in
volume 3, issue 9. Half of American consumers plan to shop
online this holiday season, up from 36 percent three years
ago, according to the National Retail Federation. Internet
retailers saw a big boost on Black Friday, with online sales
rising 42 percent to $434 million, according to a ComScore
Networks survey, as visits to leading sites jumped 21 percent
versus an average day. eBay has been beaten up and has HUGE
growth potential. Additionally, Skype's new products (Wi-Fi
VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware) are hitting
the shelves in time for Christmas and will likely start
adding a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line by the
first quarter of 2007. Analysts continue to batter eBay
prospects, but many fail to include the potential upside
of Skype. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We
continue to forge significant partnerships with companies
such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will
be of great value to all involved." eBay reported record
consolidated Q3-06 net revenues of $1.449 billion, representing
a growth rate of 31% year over year. GAAP operating income
was $339 million, a decrease of 5% year over year, and represented
23% of net revenues. Excluding stock-based compensation
of $74 million, operating income would have increased 16%
year over year to $413 million, or 28% of net revenues.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$47.57
|
$50.20
$23.02
|
+41%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries,
in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
|
GAP
|
No
|
GPS
|
$26.36
|
--
|
37.02
20.67
|
--
|
|
See
the article, "Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign," from
vol. 1, iss. 12.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
|
$81.96
|
$100.20
$75.58
|
+526%
|
|
The
FDA approved the use of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage
breast cancer on 11.17.06. DNA is a Great Blue Chip Hold
for your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in DNA-based
cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need
for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply to
the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this
popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs.
Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has
appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone
is expected to bring in $2 billion in annual sales by 2007.
Genentech reported a quarterly profit of $568 million, or
53 cents a share, on Oct. 11, 2006, compared to $359 million,
or 33 cents a share, for the same period last year. DNA
expects earnings per share to grow by 65 percent to 70 percent
for the full year. The sales of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma treatment
Rituxan rose 12 percent to $509 million for the quarter
while sales for its colon cancer staple Avastin shot up
34 percent to $435 million. P/E: 47.20. 3Q Total product
sales = $1,941 million, a 34 percent increase over $1,451
million last year. The company currently expects approximately
65 to 70 percent growth in non-GAAP earnings per share for
the full year 2006, relative to 2005.
|
|
Google
(Green)
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$485.50
|
$491.96
$273.35
|
+471%
|
|
Owns
YouTube.com, one of the most popular sites on the web. Google
joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold
for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price.
Soleil Media Research Analysts put Google's value, based
upon forward-looking revenue metrics, at $362/share.
If you've quadrupled your money, profit taking and capital
gains are attractive these days, although Santa Rally
& YouTube Buzz factor could mean that price remains
lofty at least through the end of the year. Announced
3Q 2006 earnings on Thursday, October 19, 2006 at 1:30 p.m.
PT. Google reported revenues of $2.69 billion for the quarter
ended September 30, 2006, an increase of 70% compared to
the third quarter of 2005 and an increase of 10% compared
to the second quarter of 2006. According to Google CEO Eric
Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships
with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and
Intuit that will be of great value to all involved."
|
|
Intuit
|
No
|
INTU
|
$31.72
|
--
|
$35.98
$22.93
|
--
|
|
According
to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant
partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive
Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved."
Announces 1Q on 11.16.06 after the closing bell. Intuit
Inc. reported on 10.30.06 that the Securities and Exchange
Commission has closed its investigation into the software
maker's stock option accounting practices without taking
any punitive action. 11.17.06 earnings report: 1Q 2007 revenue
increased 19% over the year-ago quarter to $362.1 million.
Growth was primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks
software and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. Intuit
posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
net loss of $58.9 million versus a net loss of $45.8 million
in the first quarter of 2006. According to the company press
release, "Intuit typically posts a seasonal loss in
its first quarter when it has little revenue from its tax
businesses." 2Q revenue last year was 144% higher than
1Q in 2005 and 2004.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$9.78
|
$12.11
$3.35
|
-4%
|
|
Krispy
Kreme Doughnuts Inc. said it would team up with NBC's "Today"
show for its 13th annual toy drive. Customers can drop off
new toys at KKD stores! (This kind of cause marketing can
be VERY effective over the holidays.)
Have
you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen
Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? A survey of just
a few shops revealed that the goods are selling great, and
reflects well on the new management team's commitment to
bringing in the dough to satisfy the sweet tooth of investors.
KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines,
Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. In turnaround mode, and
trading at 5 year lows, though things have sweetened up
since KKD hired Kraft Foods veteran Daryl Brewster as president
and chief executive in March 2006. Taken off S&P Midcap
400 effective 10.27.05. The Company expects to report a
net loss for the first two quarters of fiscal 2007. Hired
the former general counsel from Winston-Salem-based Reynolds
American Inc. (NYSE: RAI), Charles A. "Chuck" Blixt, 55,
to serve as its top lawyer. Average weekly sales increased
8 percent in company-owned stores and 5 percent system wide,
according to Krispy Kreme's sales report on 9.12.06. Having
former tobacco company counsel and director on team should
help get rid of some of the lawsuits. Now, if consumers
are still sweet on the doughnut, they may actually have
a business on their hands. Received an Overweight rating,
with a $15 target rate, from Prudential Equity Group LLC
analyst Howard W. Penney on 10.27.2006. Annual earnings
report was filed on 10.31.06. Revenues for the year ended
Janury 29, 2006 were $543.361 million down from $707.766
mm and $649.345 mm in 2005 and 2004 respectively. The loss
was $135.760 million, trimmed from $157.054 in 2005 and
a profit of $49.845 million in 2004. Long term debt stands
at $118.241 million. 61 stores have been closed over the
past two years. As of 1.31.06, there were 323 KKD factory
stores, and 68 KKD international stores.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$92.72
|
$88.50
$29.08
|
+148%
|
|
The
Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian
Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Las
Vegas Sands Corp. is also making deals with other Macao
hotels to manage their casinos and show rooms, including
the Four Seasons, Intercontinental Hotel, Holiday Inn, Far
East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La Hotel Macau
and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai Strip in Macao,
"Asia's Las Vegas.™" Sands Macao is now
the largest casino in the world with 740 table games. "The
opening of The Venetian Macao next year will mark the presence
of the first true Las Vegas-style Integrated Resort in Macao
and will be followed by the opening of the rest of the Cotai
Strip(TM) -- which will provide visitors an experience not
replicated anywhere else in Asia," according to Bradley
Stone, EVP. 3Q results on 11.1.06: Net revenue increased
26.4% to $553.2 million. Net income increased 32.1% to $117.6
million. Developing Singapore's first Integrated Resort,
The Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which will serve the
important South Asian marketplace, including India. On 11.18.06,
LVS sponsored an exhibition game at the Venetian Macao between
the NBA development team, Albuquerque Thunderbirds, and
Team China. LVS plans more exhibitions like this.
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$47.01
$35.30
(11.11)
|
$38.16
|
$48.89
$17.15
|
+8%
|
|
Read
"Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, iss.
10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to
price its product higher as a result. On 10.26.06, the Company
reported net sales of $407.9 million, which represents an
increase of over 10% from the second quarter level of $370.5
million. Net income was $91 million. During the 3rd
quarter, MEMC Electronics finalized its $5-$6 billion solar
wafer agreement with Suntech. As part of the agreement,
the company received a warrant to purchase up to a 4.9%
equity stake in Suntech, for which the company will be required
to mark the warrants to market each quarter until they are
exercised. Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC's CEO, reports cash and short-term
investments of over $450 million. MEMC will receive $2.5
billion to $3 billion in revenue from sales of the wafers
over the 10-year period from Taiwan's Gintech Energy (solar).
MEMC also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent interest
in Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel of
land of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located
within the Hsinchu Science Park. Buy rating and $54.00 price
target at Jefferies.
|
|
NetGear
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$25.55
|
$28.15
$16.64
|
+106%
|
|
Watch
Natalie
Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com
Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006).
Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young's
Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear is
on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype
phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone
is available for pre-order online for a price of $249.99.
Skype currently has 133 million registered users, and the
NetGear phone is one of the first Skype Wifi phones. An
October report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4
million U.S. households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based
broadband phone service by 2010. Judges from the IT Industry
and CRN readers rated NETGEAR Best in Service and Support
among crowded networking category that included companies
worldwide with both voice and data legacies in Dec. 2005.
3Q earnings on 10.26.06: Net revenue for the third quarter
ended October 1, 2006 was $151.6 million, a 36% increase
as compared to $111.3 million for the third quarter ended
October 2, 2005, and an increase of 16% as compared to $130.7
million in the second quarter of 2006. Net income, computed
in accordance with GAAP, for the third quarter of 2006 was
$8.0 million or $0.23 per diluted share. This net income
was a 7% decrease compared to net income of $8.6 million
for the third quarter of 2005. According to CEO Patrick
Lo, NetGear has 58 new products. CFO Jonathan Mather is
out. Christine M. Gorjanc has been awarded the position
of Chief Accounting Officer. We'll keep you posted on any
replacements for Mather. $151.1 million in cash and short-term
investments as of 10.26.06.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Owns
Fox, MySpace and DirecTv.
Dividends
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
NWS
|
$15.88
|
$21.34
|
$22.04
$14.97
|
+37%
|
|
Read
my vol. 3, iss. 9 article, "eBay's
Skype Outpaces News Corp's
MySpace, with 113 million registered users."
As Rupert Murdoch noted in the last News Corp. 1Q earnings
press release on 11.8.06, "News Corporation websites
now rank second in the U.S. in total page views and fifth
in unique visitors. Our recently announced landmark deal
with Google for textual search is expected to generate $900
million over three and a half years." MySpace is now
a Top 10 Global Internet Brand with over 134 million registered
users, making it the 2nd fastest growing Internet site in
the world. (eBay's Skype is #1!) Media is in favor for 2006,
according to Smith Barney and Soleil Media research analysts.
Mobizzo, Fox's mobile network, which pioneered text voting
on American Idol, launched on 2.27.06, and will have
micro-pay downloads of films and TV (including Napoleon
Dynamite, the Fox cult film), games music and more.
Rupert Murdoch has some talented, innovative leaders under
his aegis, and they are hitting home profits. News Corp.
has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program
initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program
to $6.0 billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly
reinforces our view that repurchases of News Corporation
shares are among the best uses of our cash in today's environment,"
according to Rupert. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt,
"We continue to forge significant partnerships with
companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit
that will be of great value to all involved." Holiday DVDs
include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical hits
include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss Sunshine
and Napoleon Dynamite.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$8.24
|
$9.68
$5.03
|
+357%
|
|
3Q
2006 earnings: Net revenue for the third quarter ended October
31, 2006 totaled $25.0 million, up 59% from the same quarter
last year. GAAP net loss in the third quarter was $(4.8)
million or $(0.05) per share. Has $91 million in cash on
hand. Named to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious Technology
Fast 50 Program for Silicon Valley on 10.26.06. It was announced
on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's products
worldwide and that the companies will collaborate on advanced
network management solutions built on Opsware's Network
Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's
share price. The company raised its full year revenue expectation
to $102 million. "We reached the key milestone of non-GAAP
profitability," said Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of
Opsware Inc. "During Q2 we also shipped the Opsware System
6 suite, the most important release in our company's history."
CFO Sharlene Abrams resigned on 7.12.06. She will continue
through Oct. 31 to aid a smooth transition to new CFO David
F. Conte. Ms. Abrams is under SEC investigation for handling
of options at her prior company, Mercury Interactive. Opsware
automates the complete IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically
discover, provision, patch, configure, secure, change, scale,
audit, recover, consolidate, migrate, and reallocate servers,
network devices and applications. Over 350 of the world's
largest companies, outsourcers and government agencies use
Opsware to deliver this new, automated model of IT. Announces
3Q on November 29, 2006 before the market opens.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$36.86
|
$36.81
|
$43.17
$22.04
|
flat
|
|
3Q
earnings on Nov. 6th: reported total revenues
of $74 million for the three months ended September 30,
2006, an increase of $40 million (or 118%) compared to revenues
of $34 million for the same period last year. Net loss was
$21.3 million. Genetic based "cancer pill." FDA-Approved
Tarceva for lung cancer November 2004. Canadian regulators
approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on
9.21.04. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. FDA
approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05.
Submitted new drug application to Japanese FDA on 4.17.06.
Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing
Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung
cancer. Industry sales data has placed the cancer drug market's
value at more than $20 billion annually and it is growing
fast.
|
|
RELM
wireless
10.70
P/E
Micro
Cap
88.73
Million
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
RWC
|
$7.35
|
$6.13
|
$11.70
$1.90
|
-16.5%
|
|
Added
to the Russell Microcap Index on 6.30.06. According to Feltl
& Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM has just 1% share of
a domestic market worth $1.9 billion (and the global market
is eight times larger), so there is plenty of room for growth.
In addition to providing communications for national security
needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at
hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines
and chemical plants. The United States Postal Service Extended
its Exclusive Contract with RELM Wireless on 7.13.2006.
RELM announced 3Q earnings on 11.2.06. Sales increased approximately
20.7% to $9.2 million from $7.6 million for the same quarter
last year. Net income for the third quarter was $1.1 million,
or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.2
million, or $0.09 per diluted share, for the same quarter
last year.
|
|
Sirius
$6.3
Bil Market Cap
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SIRI
|
$3.85
(11.1)
$6.00
(2005)
|
$4.13
|
$7.98
$3.60
|
+7%
|
|
Announced
3Q on Nov. 8, 2006. Total revenue increased 150% year- over-year
to $167.1 million for third quarter 2006, reflecting nearly
three million new subscribers added in the last twelve months.
SIRIUS ended the third quarter with 5,119,308 subscribers.
For the fourth consecutive quarter, SIRIUS led the satellite
radio industry in net subscriber additions, capturing a
record 61% of total satellite radio net additions in the
third quarter. SIRIUS reported a net loss of ($162.9) million,
or ($0.12) per share, for the third quarter of 2006 compared
with a net loss of ($180.4) million last year. Karmazin
says the Stiletto handheld (iPod-like SR device) is here,
and almost all of the record companies are happy with it.
Sirius is on track to finish the year strong with over 6.2
million subscribers. Originally XM projected 9 million by
year's end, but the company has cut its subscriber year-end
forecast. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing
market share and having biz cash flow issues. Could impact
XM. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard on 2/3rds
of 2007 cars. SIRI has deals with Ford, MBZ, Jeep, Dodge,
BMW, VW, Audi and Rolls-Royce. Nielsen//NetRatings report
said the online traffic to Sirius' grew 188%, to 1.9 million
in March 2006 from 666,000 unique visitors in the year-ago
period. That beats XMSR traffic, which turned in 1.69 million
in unique visitors in March.
|
|
Sohu
(Chinese Co. ADR)
918.7
Mil Market Cap
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$24.57
|
$29.43
$14.25
|
+40%
|
|
Completed
a $15 million share buyback program on 8.2.06. Stock buyback
program up to $30 million announced on 7.25.06. Beat earnings
on 10.26.06. Total revenues hit a record high of US $35.4
million, up 29% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter,
exceeding company guidance. GAAP net income of US $6.6 million
or US $0.17 per fully diluted share. On 6.12.06, Sohu entered
into a multi-year advertising agreement with leading online
retailer, Joyo.com (owned by Amazon). 2006 revenues were
increased by Sohu's exclusive right to 2006 FIFA World Cup
online video content, according to Chairman and CEO Dr.
Charles Zhang. "China Internet is the most dynamic industry
within the world's fastest-growing major economy, in our
analysis," according to Michael Tieu, a Brean Murray Carret
& Co. analyst. Tieu noted that while China's online
advertising market is a rounding error of that of the United
States, its ad sales are forecast to grow 40% a year to
about $3 billion in 2010. See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature articles on
Sohu. Financial Times ranked Sohu in the Top 10 Chinese
Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6 days after our first
feature article). Sohu was selected as the official sponsor
of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic
Games, so this story is still nascent. See Dr.
Charles Zhang in an exclusive
interview on the Forbes.com Video Network. Could be some
bumps in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008,
which should ultimately be worth it, with China still growing
at over 9% in real GDP per year.
|
|
SunTech
Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
|
$29.25
|
$45.95
$19.00
|
+13%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar
energy. Suntech is inspiring a slew of Chinese solar company
IPOs, with LDK Solar, Yingli Solar, Trin Solar and Linyang
solar planning to launch a US IPO in the near future, according
to Reuters (10.02.06). Beat analysts' expectations of $151.61
million in revenues. 3Q earnings (11.20.06): Third quarter
total net revenue was up 27.2% sequentially and 187.8% year-over-year
to $163.0 million. Net income for the same quarter of $28.7
million, or $0.19 per diluted American Depository Share
(ADS). STP and the University of New South Wales signed
a new $1.2 million collaborative research agreement through
2007 with a $3 million extension through 2010. Suntech will
supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW
to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection
Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world's largest
solar power plant.
|
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$31.36
|
$31.21
$12.00
|
+50%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why
Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to
diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the
emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are
stalling in economic growth.
|
|
Time-Warner
(owns
AOL)
|
No
|
TWX
|
$16.76
|
$20.31
|
$20.91
$15.70
|
+21%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s
MySpace" for a report card that features Time-Warner.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth, which
is trading at a value. AOL and Time-Warner have finally
figured out how to work together, and Chairman & CEO
Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn.
After a series of blunders, could it be TWX's time to shine?
AOL is now an advertising-supported business. Reported 3Q
results on 11.1.06: Revenues rose 7% over the same period
in 2005 to $10.9 billion, led by growth at the Cable and
Networks segments. As of September 30, 2006, Net Debt totaled
$32.2 billion, up $16.1 billion from $16.1 billion at the
end of 2005, reflecting, among other items, the closing
of the Adelphia and Comcast transactions as well as the
Company's share repurchase program. $4 billion in free cash
flow. From the inception of its stock repurchase program
through October 31, 2006, the Company has repurchased approximately
770 million shares of common stock for approximately $13.4
billion. At existing price levels, the Company expects that
it will purchase at least $15 billion of its common stock
by the end of 2006 and the remainder of its $20 billion
program in 2007. At AOL, Revenues declined 3% ($58 million)
to $2.0 billion, due to a 13% decrease ($210 million) in
Subscription revenues, offset in part by a 46% increase
($151 million) in Advertising revenues. Ron Grant was appointed
President and COO of AOL LLC on November 21, 2006, by AOL's
new Chairman and CEO Randy Falco. Grant has held senior
positions on both sides of the aisle - at AOL and at Time-Warner,
making him ideal for the job. Prior to being appointed Chairman
and CEO of AOl, Mr. Falco was President and COO of the NBC
Universal Television Group. Jonathan Miller's departure
was unexpected, but the transition seems to be a smooth
one. All internal communiqué awards Miller kudos
for setting AOL on the right track prior to his departure,
which is a huge leap forward compared to the internal squabbling
that characterized TWX/AOL at the time of the merger.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
USGL
|
$5.05
|
$4.64
|
$10.30
$.35
|
-8%
|
|
See
the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in
i-Sophia ezine, vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen
on the Forbes.com Video Network. This is a gold exploration
company that is being traded off the big boards. If the
choice is between this and the craps table, you might have
better odds here (and more fun if McEwen strikes gold.)
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time. They
are digging to find a new reserve. U.S. Gold closed the
private placement of 16,700,000 subscription receipts at
a price of US $4.50 for aggregate gross proceeds of US $75.15
million on Feb. 22, 2006. 33.3 million shares outstanding,
with a market capitalization of US $239.7 million. U.S.
Gold Receives Escrowed Funds $35,665,596 net of commissions.
A company spokesperson reported in August that U.S. Gold
is close to listing on the TSX (Toronto's small board) and
the NYSE's ARCA Stock Exchange. Listings typically have
a positive effect on share price. Began trading on the Toronto
Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol UXG, on 8.29.06. U.S.
Gold & Lexam Explorations Inc. (TSX VENTURE: LEX) are
pleased to announce that Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, has
been awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award by Canadian
Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star Execs roundup."
On Nov. 3, 2006, Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, and his wife
Cheryl McEwen have been honored by Tiffany & Co. with
the 2006 Tiffany Mark Award. The Tiffany Mark Award honors
men and women who are making their "mark" professionally
and in their community through tireless efforts on behalf
of charities and organizations they care about deeply.
|
|
Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
$18.04
|
$24.08
$14.97
|
+7%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar
energy. This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which
updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises on the
good or bad news of alternative energy companies which it
may not even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year
on bad news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply,
even though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding.
|
Sony
(NYSE: SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the
list! LifeCell (NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being
added to the Watch list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144%
gains. Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains.
Recently
removed from the Hot Stocks List:
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$219.45
(price
11.29: $211)
|
$253.33
$114.90
|
+145%
|
|
Building
permits are down worldwide, and there are reports that China
is pulling back on its rapid urban expansion. Additionally,
there are currency considerations in Australia, where Rio
Tinto does a great deal of its business. Rio Tinto has definitely
been the star of the metals sector since we first featured
the company, back in August of 2004, but the insatiable
demand for copper and metals was tied to the low interest
rates in the US (fueling construction) and the pro-expansion
policies in China. With both of those reversing, it seems
like the high and the thrill may be nearing their peaks.
Even with the year-end Santa Rally going and the Dow at
an all-time high, on November 10, 2006, copper futures plunged
to a 4 ý month low. "It's not unusual to see copper supplies
increase on a seasonal basis, but the steady nature of the
increases of 2,000 to 3,000 tons over the last few weeks
has eroded support in the market," said Dan Vaught, a futures
analyst at AG Edwards. Rio Tinto PLC, the world's second-largest
miner, said on 10.18.06 that third-quarter refined copper
production fell 15 percent after the company shut down a
smelter at a mine in Utah.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Great
Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching
and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better
price), if you believe the news on future potential. There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
10.13.06
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$64.63
|
$91.93
|
$86.40
$45.26
|
+42%
|
|
Apple
missed the SEC deadline for filing its 2Q earnings. By requesting
a NASDAQ hearing (to avoid delisting), Apple buys itself
2-3 months to get everything in order. This stems from an
SEC investigation into handling of past stock option compensation
awards. Apple has said that they may have to restate earnings
dating back to Sept. 2002. Google CEO Eric Schmidt just
joined the Apple board or directors. Very positive for the
long term. Former CFO Fred Anderson resigned from the Apple
Board on 10.4.06. The internal investigation revealed that
Steve Jobs did NOT directly benefit from any back-dated
options, but that he "was aware that favorable grant
dates had been selected" according to a company press
release. The markets are heading into their top-performing
season, the iPod is still all the rage. But if investors
catch wind of the accounting irregularities and/or if there
is more fall-out from the SEC with regard to the role that
Jobs played, the stock could be negatively affectedÉ Popularity
of the iPod and ability of Jobs to pull in muscle to help
with the Feds keep Apple off of the Cooling Off list now,
especially since none of the dough went into Jobs wallet.
The scandal keeps Apple off the Hot List for now as well.
On November 12,th, Apple hired Donald J. Rosenberg, former
SVP and general counsel of IBM, to join the company as its
SVP and general counsel, reporting to Apple CEO Steve Jobs.
(HmmmÉ extra firepower in the legal department. Are you
connecting the dots?)
|
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$22.73
|
$29.29
|
$41.66
$17.49
|
+10%
|
|
Gold
dropped to $573/$580 range on 9.15.06 causing losses for
most gold mining stocks. Any troubles in the already tight
metals market, or investor panic over inflation and terrorism
could send gold prices even higher than they currently are
(which has been happening all year). This has traditionally
been one of the great gold companies, but there is an executive
battle brewing between the largest individual shareholder,
Rob McEwen, and the current management team. McEwen accuses
Goldcorp's directors and management of "tyranny,"
saying that he opposed the Glamis merger and threatening
to sue Goldcorp's management and board. According to the
AP, Ian Telfer, Goldcorp's current CEO, dismisses McEwen's
claims that shareholders are against the deal, saying that
he polled 100 of GG's top shareholders and McEwen was the
only one opposed to the deal. Telfer expects the acquisition
of Glamis Gold to close in 5 weeks. Two things raise concern
at this company. 1) No one wins in a war. 2) Rapid growth
requires very adept management. Is Ian Telfer up to the
task? How adept is he if he has his largest individual shareholder
is poised to file papers in court tomorrow (according to
a McEwen spokesperson)? The Glamis M&A went through
on 11.13.06. Still holding on this list to see how McEwen
reacts, and to report on gold future potential. Gold was
back up to $635 on 11.29.06.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.34
|
$29.24
|
$29.40
$21.45
|
+3%
|
|
World's
largest software company. $31 billion in cash. Launching
a new handheld music device - Zune - No. 14, 2006.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks
(that may be in Profit-Taking Range).
Note: We may look to add some of these companies to our Hot News
list again, if the price point should become attractive and if
the outlook for the company improves. The companies listed in
bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or
may be currently poised for a continued decline in value. Investors
who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and
consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses,
short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping
the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (The stocks on this chart are expected to go
down in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
American
Airlines
KB
Home
Toll
Brothers
DELETIONS:
IMClone,
Verisign and Yahoo.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
10.13.06
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Airlines
|
No
|
AMR
|
$24.05
$29.06
(11.13)
|
$31.73
|
$34.40
$10.00
|
+32%
|
|
Don't
buy into the hype. Read the article, "$72 Oil Will
Sink Airlines," in vol. 3, issue 7. American Airlines'
financial obligations surpass $26.6 billion, including $5.1
billion owed to pension plans (which is close to AMR's market
capitalization). American Airlines has such a strong brand,
and so few investors are aware of the depth of their debt,
that AMR tends to run up on any good news in the sector.
It's not a slam-dunk short or put. 3Q net profit, issued
on 10.18, was $15 million. "We are pleased to report a profit
for the third quarter, which represents the first time in
nearly six years that we have recorded a profit in two consecutive
quarters," said AMR Chairman and CEO Gerard Arpey. "These
results show continuing improvements in the Company's core
business operations, even in the face of new challenges.
But we also have more hard work ahead of us as we build
a company that is better positioned for long-term success."
Competition from low-cost carriers and competitors that
have gained cost advantages through the bankruptcy reorganization
process remains a significant challenge.
|
|
Fannie
Mae
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
|
$56.85
|
$62.37
$45.93
|
-6%
|
|
Spending
$1 billion on accounting fees related to the accounting
scandal. Fannie Mae also said it would miss a regulatory
deadline Wednesday for filing its financial report for the
third quarter of 2006. The company hasn't filed an earnings
statement since late 2004. And yet investors are still in
to the tune of $58.44 billionÉ. Are you?
|
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General
Motors
|
Yes
|
GM
|
$32.35
$34.67
(11.13)
|
$29.66
|
$37.34
$18.33
|
-8-14%
|
|
See
the article "Faded Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue
8. According to Standard and Poor's Report on Pension Plans
(6.06), GM owes -$50 billion in pensions and other post
employment benefits (OPEB). General Motors' market capitalization
is $19.85 billion, and last year the company lost over $10.95
billion. With a debt equity ratio of 3.85, most investors
are probably unaware of the fact that GM has financial obligations
that exceed the value of the corporation by over 6 times.
For more information, please read the "Wow
Dow! Or NASDAQ Now?" article, in vol. 3, iss. 11.
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KB
Home
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$49.21
|
$81.99
$37.89
|
-16.6%
|
|
Chairman
and CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006,
after SEC investigation of backdating options. He'll repay
$13 million to the company, however, his retirement package
has not been negotiated, meaning that his golden parachute
could far exceed the $13 million. Additionally, Karatz cashed
out over $100 million over the last two years. KBH missed
filing 3Q report on time, due to SEC investigation into
stock options. On November 10, 2006, bondholders agreed
to not default on their notes, and have given KB Home until
February 23, 2007 to file the earnings report, according
to the AP. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel
Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They
Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005,
we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should
continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates,
people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$31.06
|
$21.56
|
$32.60
$15.11
|
-30.1%
|
|
The
FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue"
on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and
took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q Ô05 to reflect the recall.
LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing,
however the story on some of the unscreened and untested
tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not
over. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who
unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services
and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown.
According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT
for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases,
among other violations. LifeCell has set up a testing
program for anyone who received the BTS donor tissue. LifeCell
has been named in "several" lawsuits related to
this matter, according to the earnings report filed on 10.26.2006.
"There can be no assurance that the level of insurance
maintained will be sufficient to cover the claims or that
the all of the claims will be covered by the terms of any
insurance." There has been at least $15.5 million in
insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months.
AlloDerm(R) Regenerative Tissue Matrix, increased 73% to
$30.3 million from $17.6 million a year ago. LifeCell has
a great product in high demand, but the potential fallout
of the unscreened human tissue could be more than most small
capitalization companies can take. Operating income for
the third quarter of 2006 increased 144% to $8.7 million
compared to operating income of $3.6 million in the third
quarter of 2005.
|
|
Toll
Brothers
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$30.88
|
$46.39
$22.22
|
-18%
|
|
Cash
is down to $322.5 million at the end of July 31, compared
to $689.2 million, on Oct 31, 2005. Inventory is up to $6.2
billion, from $5 billion last October. Liabilities have
increased to $4 billion from $3.6 billion. Net income was
$174,632 million, compared to $215,532 million a year ago.
Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout
sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home
prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts
and rising inventory.
|
The
following companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective
10.16.06. Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). (The
cooling off list anticipates that a company will lose share price
value.)
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
are a media and information center. This article is intended to
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a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals
and strategies.
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or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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