TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.4 Issue 2 February 1st, 2007
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"When you
have a product that is 10% better than the competition, that will
affect the user base and you will become 10 times more popular
than the other one."

Dr. Charles Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Sohu.com.
Copyright 2006, The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.
Reprinted with permission .
|
- Apple¨ Chips. The Perfect
Party Mix for 2007? By
Natalie Pace. Includes a Semiconductor Stock Report Card.
- The Greatest Love Quotes of
All Time! Need inspiration
for what to write on your Valentine's Day card?
- What Poker Champs and Champion
Investors Have In Common: Neither Gamble. By Natalie Pace, Top Stock Picker, per TipsTraders.com.
- A Surprising Fourth Quarter. Can the stock market
do it again in 2007? By Paul Woods, President & CEO of
Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
- Newbies Treat Wall Street Like a Casino.
A reprint
of our January 10, 2007 online chat with money manager,
Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC.
- Identity Theft: Don't Leave
Your Computer Unlocked With the Keys Inside.
By Jay Pestrichelli, Senior Vice President of Client Experience,
TD AMERITRADE.
- The Changing of the Guard - The New Congressional
Agenda. Michael
Townsend, Vice president, Legislative and Regulatory Affairs,
Schwab.
- Get a Better Job, Get a Better
Life. By Chellie Campbell,
author of Zero to Zillionaire.
- Winging It. An
excerpt from the new book from How She Does It: How
Women Entrepreneurs are Changing the Rules of Business
Success. By Margaret Heffernan.
- New Year, New Job - What to
do with Your 401(k). By
Rande Spiegelman, Vice president of financial planning,
Schwab Center for Investment Research.
- Blue Chip Returns: #1 for 20 Years.
By Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality
Trends stock newsletter.
- Buy High; Sell Higher? Why 2007 is Poised to be
a Banner Year. By
Natalie Pace. Includes our Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
- NataliePace.com Calendar:
Conferences (featuring
billionaires, royalty and statesmen), award shows (Babel
or The Departed?) and online chats. Stay plugged in! Visit
our calendar section often.
|
|
Apple¨ Chips. The Perfect Party Mix for 2007?
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes a Semiconductor Stock Report Card.
Click
here to review the Microchip
Stock Report Card, where we line up the numbers of
AMD and Intel, alongside a few other companies.
The
Internet has arrived and changed the world we live in. You don't
get your CDs from Tower anymore, you buy individual songs from
Apple. NetGear, ABC-TV and other forward-thing companies have
put your favorite television shows on your computer and your iPod
(and soon enough, your cell phone), where you can watch your films,
videos and Lost anywhere in the world anytime.
Hmmm.
From that kid who plays "Fur Elise" on a rickety old
piano to Bush Bloopers, there are now more people watching their
computers than their flat screens - by a lot! The top three brands
- Yahoo!, Google and MSN -- have over 300 million unique visitors
between the three of them each month, which is equal to the population
of the U.S.! Apple® announced on January 9, 2007 that more
than two billion songs, 50 million television episodes and over
1.3 million feature-length films have been purchased and downloaded
from the iTunes® Store (www.itunes.com), making it the world's
most popular online music, TV and movie store.
|
Top
10 Online Brands
|
|
Brand
|
Unique
Audience (000)
|
Web
Page Views (000)
|
Time
Per Person (hh:mm:ss)
|
|
Yahoo!
|
110,687
|
32,068,624
|
3:02:36
|
|
Google
|
108,232
|
16,747,482
|
1:02:03
|
|
Microsoft
|
98,625
|
1,310,053
|
0:44:24
|
|
MSN/Windows
Live
|
98,203
|
13,888,641
|
1:46:41
|
|
AOL
|
80,807
|
7,504,343
|
5:06:12
|
|
eBay
|
66,193
|
14,813,843
|
1:37:45
|
|
Fox
Interactive Media
|
61,450
|
27,919,358
|
1:44:57
|
|
Amazon
|
50,550
|
2,664,612
|
0:31:13
|
|
Real
Network
|
43,626
|
326,626
|
0:40:37
|
|
Apple
|
43,280
|
349,572
|
1:21:50
|
Source:
Nielsen//NetRatings
US, Home and Work
Month of December 2006
And
yes, we have Apple, NetGear and Disney (the owner of ABC-TV and
Pixar) on our Hot News List (see the article in this ezine), but
as you watch your favorite show on your computer, don't forget
the chips! Media-rich sites like YouTube, MySpace and more require
more memory and faster, better machines, at home and in the office.
And the rush to buy new machines means another wave of demand
to buy more chips from the beaten-down semiconductor sector -
including Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. However, jumping into
the current price war between AMD and Intel could leave you bruised
and bloodied, so don't rush into buy without reading on.
Anyone
with a teenager knows that Internet video is all the rage and
that the old computer can't carry the weight of the extra broadband
and storage capacity that is needed, but did you know that positive
hiring trends are highly correlated with IT spending as well?
According to a recent Manpower survey, the environment is ripe
for more hiring and more spending on Internet technology. Tobias
Levkovich, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Salomon Smith Barney,
believes that companies which will benefit from the trend include:
networking equipment suppliers Cisco Systems and JDS Uniphase,
Internet portals/search engines like Google (through YouTube),
Myspace and Yahoo, and server and storage equipment producers
such as IBM, Sun Microsystems and EMC, to name a few, as well
as content enablers such as Comcast and AT&T and content providers
like Time Warner, Disney and News Corp.
Google,
Time Warner, Disney and News Corp (owners of MySpace) are all
on our Hot News list. Yahoo, an underperformer in the past, may
be ready to break out of their stalling pattern, which is something
we'll examine and report on in greater detail next month.
Media-rich
sites rely upon 2007 hardware, software, chips and memory, and
AMD was such an outstanding performer from 2004 through 2006,
that it's easy to want to bet on this underdog winning again.
However, now that Intel is fighting back with great products at
lower prices, AMD is on the ropes. No one is predicting a definitive
knockout of AMD by Intel, but does AMD have a plan to win back
profits before cash flow becomes an issue? Can AMD increase operating
margins from 40% to 50% with a "maniacal" approach to
cost cutting and by forcing the courts to make Intel play more
fair? With $1.5 billion cash on hand, there is certainly no cash
crunch, but AMD's earnings surprise for the fourth quarter was
one of the hardest hits Wall Street has seen all year, and the
story of how AMD is going to fight off Intel in round two needs
to be better than losing a few pounds (cost cutting) and complaining
to the referee.
Battle
to the Bottom: Intel Vs. Advanced Micro Devices
On January
11, 2007, Advanced Micro Devices warned that, "The fourth
quarter gross margin and operating income were impacted by significantly
lower microprocessor average selling prices, which largely offset
a significant increase in unit sales." In short, Intel slashed
prices, forcing AMD to do the same, which made AMD miss earnings
big time. Analysts were expecting AMD to earn, on average, 10
cents per share on $1.74 billion in revenue for the quarter, according
to a survey by Thomson Financial. The company reported a net loss
of $574 million, or $1.08 per share, for the quarter that ended
Dec. 31. (The loss isn't as bad as it appears because it included
the $5.4 billion acquisition of graphics chipmaker ATI Technologies
Inc.)
The
selling spree from the warning shaved 10% off of the AMD share
price in one day. On January 23, 2007, when the numbers became
official, investors punished the company again, driving the share
price down to prices not seen since September of 2004, when AMD
was our featured company, at a price of $11.96. After trading
as high as $42.70 in 2006, AMD stock closed at $16.03 on Wednesday,
January 24, 2007. Yes, it's hard to imagine worse news, but the
pricing war with Intel is expected to continue to eviscerate their
operating margins, especially in the first two quarters of 2007.
Still I, like many analysts listening in on the earnings call,
were hopeful of hearing a battle plan to rally behind. AMD is
a company that has produced surprisingly great products - in the
past, and who would have thought there would ever be the opportunity
to buy it again at $16?
Ed's
Note: To read the Sept. 2004, article, "Chip
Makers. Ante up and cash in," go to vol. 1, iss. 52,
or click on the highlighted words.
On
the January 23, 2007 earnings call, AMD executives were bullish
that the introduction of Barcelona server chips in the middle
of the year will definitively establish AMD as the performance
leader. A "maniacal focus" on cost cutting was another
mantra, as was the legal battle against Intel. AMD Chairman and
Chief Executive Officer Hector de J. Ruiz, Ph.D. 500 Green Power
Challenge, which lists AMD as the that the company is "very
confident that the outcome [of AMD's lawsuit with Intel] will
be very positive for us." Analysts didn't seem convinced,
however, and I, too, was left with nagging doubts about just how
cost-cutting and lawsuits were a great game plan in a technology
race.
Who
wins in a price war? The customers, like Dell and Hewlett Packard,
certainly do, but does the investor? Goldman Sach's analyst Jim
Cavello noted that AMD's approach for getting new customers and
creating value for investors "seems to be at odds" and
frankly has not worked very well. "How bad does it have to
get before the strategy changes?" Mr. Cavello asked. Dirk
Meyer, the President and Chief Operating Officer, responded, saying,
"We compete against a monopolist who has a dominant share.
In the long term, the best return we can do for shareholders is
to break that monopoly." I'm sure Michael Dell is jumping
on his desk with joy, but is Warren Buffett?
Unfortunately,
in the breakneck world of rapidly changing technology products,
it is a maniacal focus on innovation that seems to work best.
As Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
of Sohu.com in China says, "When you have a product that
is 10% better than the competition, that will affect the user
base and you will become 10 times more popular than the other
one." That strategy, more than forcing Intel to say "Uncle"
in the court room, is one that investors and customers could unite
behind.
As
a result, even though AMD has been a performance leader in the
past, we will not be adding the company to our Hot News list.
There is a lot riding on the Barcelona release at the middle of
the year, and not much expectation that margins improve measurably
at AMD prior to then. We'll check in on the war between AMD and
Intel again in June. But in the meantime:
There
are two things that matter most in technology - product and price
- and Intel is beating AMD at both right now. In Silicon Valley,
the war isn't won by suits in the court room. It's won by the
geeks in the garage.
Click
here to review the Microchip
Stock Report Card, where we line up the numbers of
AMD and Intel, alongside a few other companies.
Socially
Conscious:
Currently,
there are just a few pioneering corporations in the U.S. who are
strongly committed to using green energy. Whole Foods Market,
the World Bank Group, the Advanced Micro Devices Austin, TX Facilities
and the Tower Companies all run on 100% green power usage (source:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). Click for a list of the
Fortune
500 Green Power Challenge, which lists AMD as the
14th most Green Company.
On
a global scale, AMD has committed to reduce energy use by 30 percent,
water use by 40 percent and greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent
by the end of 2007, normalized and relative to 2002 performance
levels. In addition, AMD uses cogeneration facilities to supply
nearly 100 percent of the energy required by Fab 30 and Fab 36
in Dresden, Germany achieving 20 percent higher efficiency than
conventional systems. These commitments are also reflected in
AMD's leadership in developing power-efficient, environmentally-conscious
innovations such as Cool'n'Quiet™ technology. In 2005, Cool'n'Quiet
technology received special ENERGY STAR® recognition from
the EPA for the advancement of energy-efficient computer technology.
|
|
The Greatest Love Quotes of All Time!
 |
| Photo
Credit: www.mazell.com. Film and Video Production. Advertising
Photography. 562-866-7662 |
If
you're in a bind and need something to write on your Valentine's
Day card, these quotes might help! If you're stuck in a rut or alone
this Valentine's Day, and you are wondering what this love business
is really all about, these wise observations might point you in
the right direction.
Don't miss our
online surveys, where men and women reveal what they really want
most from their lover on Valentine's Day. And please take the survey
yourself, so that your own lover stands a chance of getting you
exactly what you most desire.
Great
Love Quotes
- A kiss is
a lovely trick, designed by nature, to stop words when speech
becomes superfluous. - Ingrid Bergman.
- It is wrong
to think that love comes from long companionship and persevering
courtship. Love is the offspring of spiritual affinity and unless
that affinity is created in a moment, it will not be created for
years or even generations. - Kahlil Gibran.
- Sometimes
the heart sees what is invisible to the eye. - H. Jackson Brown,
Jr.
- The best
portion of a good man's life: his little, nameless, unremembered
acts of kindness and love. - William Wordsworth.
- Neither a
lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together
go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul
of genius. - Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
- Love is composed
of a single soul inhabiting two bodies. - Aristotle.
- Falling in
love consists of uncorking the imagination and bottling the common
sense. - Helen Rowland.
- Love does
not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together
in the same direction. - Antoine de Saint-Exupery.
- If you would
be loved, love and be lovable. - Benjamin Franklin.
- We've got
this gift of love, but love is like a precious plant. You can't
just accept it and leave it in the cupboard or just think it's
going to get on by itself. You've got to keep watering it. You've
got to really look after it and nurture it. - John Lennon.
- The perfect
relationship begins with you. Became a "soul mate" yourself,
so that you can be a soul mate magnet. - Natalie Pace.
- In our willingness
to give that which we seek, we keep the abundance of the universe
circulating in our lives. - Deepak Chopra.
- With all
matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like
any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the
years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.
-- Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer, Stanford Commencement
address, delivered on June 12, 2005.
|
|
What
Poker Champs and Champion Investors Have In Common: Neither Gamble.
by Natalie
Pace, Top Stock Picker, per TipsTraders.com.
Annie
Duke didn't win the 2004 World Series of Poker because she's a great
gambler. She won because she knows her profession and doesn't gamble
at all. In fact, her book, Annie
Duke: How
I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed and Won Millions,
isn't a sensational book about how cool gambling is if you're a
girl. It's a course study - an educational prerequisite -- for ANYONE
who cares to sit and win at a poker table.
This is America,
however, and no one is going to deny you your right to dump yourself
bold and naïve at a poker table any more than anyone is going
to deny you your right to gamble on the stock market. Trouble is:
professionals don't gamble, and if you are, guess who is more likely
to win.
Unfortunately,
what most Americans don't realize is that they probably have a seat
at the stock table, whether they know it or not. Odds are your company
retirement plan and/or your personal 401 (k) or IRA have holdings
in mutual funds or publicly traded companies. So, it's not a game
you can easily walk away from. In fact, there's almost no alternative
to educating yourself, if you want to start winning gains.
Buy Annie Duke's
book if you want to win at poker. Buy Peter Lynch's books if you
want to learn investment tricks of a pro. Here's the interesting
thing. They're both talking the same game.
- Bet On
What You Know. Annie Duke is a meticulous observer who counts
eye blinks before the game begins, so that she can assess when
someone is lying. She knows the probability of any set of cards
winning, and that "you should only play 25% of the hands
you're dealt." Peter Lynch says, "If you like the store,
chances are you'll love the stock." It's better to invest
in companies that you know and understand (and as a consumer,
you know what products you like and don't like and why) than to
blindly chase every "hot" company that gets reported
on.
- Play the
Odds. "A-2 offers nineteen combinations for making the
best low" in Omaha Hi-Lo, according to Annie Duke, who cautions
to avoid trap hands, like A-5, which can be beaten by a number
of low combos. How do you play the winners on Wall Street? Avoid
companies that owe more to their pension plans than they are worth.
Companies with severely underfunded pension plans are more likely
to enter bankruptcy, as we've seen with Delphi, Delta Airlines,
United Airlines, US Airways and more. Exxon Mobil, General Motors
and Ford owe billions to their pension plans, according to Standard
and Poor's. Any company that was founded before 1980 and has a
benefits-based retirement plan (rather than a 401 k), is likely
to have an unhealthy fiscal exposure to benefit costs, especially
if there are unions at the company.
Check your
mutual funds to be sure that you are not over-exposed to these
and other Blue Chip companies that are suffering from "legacy"
costs. (You'll see this term in a lot of news articles these days.)
To review the Pensions Stock Report card, read the "Faded
Blue Chips" article, from vol. 3, issue 8.
- Don't
Chase Bad Hands. "Cards that look good to you because
you've been card dead aren't right for playing," according
to Annie. The odds of winning in poker and in life are quantifiable,
and increase if you are willing to play hands with a high probability
of winning and pass over hands that have a high probability of
losing. Real Estate Investors, especially novices, should take
great heed today.
If you've
been looking all year for a good real estate investment or even
to buy your own home, and all you can afford is the run-down shack
in the ghetto, don't bet on that shack getting sold higher in
a few years to someone more foolish than you are. Houses with
security bars on the window in Inglewood, California are going
for half a million dollars today. Modest homes (hardly more than
shacks) in Venice, California are selling for over a million.
When the price of anything becomes higher than the customer base
can afford, buyers dry up and excess stock begins accumulating.
Stocks in 2000 weren't immune. Real Estate in 2007 may not fall
sharp and fast, but rest assured that prices cannot rise at the
same rate they did from 2000 to 2006.
- Predict
the Future by Doing Your Research. Annie recommends paying
attention to how fast or slow people play their hands. "It
can help you predict what they're holding in future hands,"
according to Annie. So, who do you watch on Wall Street? Turns
out certain trends are extremely predictable. For instance, during
the Santa Rally of 2002, NataliePace.com reported that 2003, the
year before a presidential election, was a year that had statistically
significant odds of posting positive gains. ((2000-2002 were all
losing years, and, after a very dismal October 2002 on Wall Street,
many investors were starting to think that the Apocalypse had
arrived.) 2003 was a great year for gains in stocks, and 2007
is poised to do the same.
Average
S&P 500 Returns in Pre-Election Years
|
Years
|
Open/Close
Price
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
1991
1.2.91
- 12.31.91
|
326.45
417.09
|
+28%
|
|
1995
1.3.95
- 12.29.95
|
459.11
615.93
|
+34%
|
|
1999
1.4.99
- 12.31.99
|
1228.10
1469.25
|
+19.6
|
|
2003
1.2.2003
- 12.31.2003
|
909.03
1111.92
|
+22%
|
|
Average
for pre-election year returns since 1991
|
|
25.9%
|
The Santa
Rally is another fairly reliable trend. Over half of the gains
in the stock market occur in the 4th quarter. Does
that mean that you will win every hand if you learn how to read
the future based on historical trends? No. Does it increase your
chance of success? Yes.
Additionally,
if you get into a bind where you are invested, but feel blind
(as the Virgin
Investor, Jodi Seidler, did when she made her first
trade), you can commit to obtaining the facts that you help you
to make a more informed decision, rather than taking a shot in
the dark (which has a big chance of missing the target).
- Never
play a bad hand. In Omaha Hi-Lo, a bad hand is 2-2-7-Q. "The
hand literally has no potential," according to Annie. What
"bad hands" are there in investing? Swamp land in Florida.
Free money to help a diplomat/royal from Nigeria. Penny stocks
that get pumped through spam email campaigns. Assume that any
get rich quick scheme that comes from someone you don't know is
swampland in Florida until proven otherwise. If anyone tells you
that you've won something, but asks you for money before you receive
the loot, hang up. If you get an email from your "bank"
asking you for private information, DO NOT RESPOND by email or
by entering sensitive information onto a web site. Call your bank's
listed telephone number (NOT the number on the email) and speak
to a representative. With regard to real estate, remember that
past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For more information on money scams, read ÒWhat
You Don't Know About Money Scams Could Kill You,Ó from vol.
3, issue 9 (September 2006).
- Don't
Play With Cheaters. As Annie notes, "Generally the people
who play dishonestly are the ones who have leaksÉ If you're trying
to take edges like that, you likely have the kind of personality
that is going to have other problems - a drug addiction, for example."
There are signs that a company and CEO are bending (if not breaking)
the rules. If the company is "based" out of the Bahamas,
but has no real offices there. If the CEO is seen more often in
the society pages than in the Board Room. If the product prices
are dropping faster than the Titanic, but the balance sheet reflects
a steady climb in sales. Click here for the Top
10 Signs the CEO is rolling in your dough. Investing
in companies with products you don't like (think Altria, which
is the Philip Morris tobacco company) or CEOs whom you don't trust
is no different than doing business with someone with questionable
morals. The same rationale that has them cheating on others will
have them cheating on you. It's just a matter of time.
As in poker,
there are many more things to learn about investing that will help
you up your chances of winning. Before you sit at the poker table,
you might start by reading Annie Duke's excellent book. She very
generously reveals the strategies she used to become the 2004 Tournament
of Champions winner. Before you start putting your money in the
stock market, and remember chances are you that already have some
money invested there, you would be smart to continue learning from
professionals who have a record of posting consistent gains over
time. This is very different from blind faith in the broker behind
the counter, or the fever of hearing something on CNBC or the sure
shot claims of the Spam or direct mail that you receive from "experts"
who are touting HUGE GAINS.
It's a thrill
to win money at either seat - poker or Wall Street - and it is assured
that you will get that joy more often if you know what you are doing.
No one can play your cards better than you can, provided you learn
the rules and fundamentals of the game. .
|
|
A
Surprising Fourth Quarter. Can the stock market do it again in 2007?
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
The
biggest news in the fourth quarter of 2006 was the change in power
in Congress. Democrats won virtually every close race and established
majorities in both the Senate and House. The gist of their message
was they weren't Republicans, but they were vague on how they would
change things. With the stock market's usual distaste for uncertainty,
it went into a funk for a few days after the election. However,
it didn't take long for investors to remember what political gridlock
did for the economy and the financial markets in the 1990s. A week
later, the stock market was higher than before the election.
Like a glider
gently coming in for a landing, economic growth is moderating. The
fourth quarter was the first time in three years that real GDP growth
dropped below 3%, and leading indicators of the economy imply further
slowing. However, corporate profits remain stubbornly strong, with
earnings for the S&P 500 Index still up over 15% from year ago
levels. The inflation rate dropped dramatically during the fourth
quarter and is now around 1%. Even so, the Federal Reserve is still
using the threat of inflation as an excuse not to lower short-term
interest rates.
Before the election,
there was speculation that more Democrats would negatively impact
health care and oil stocks. On that, the pundits batted 50%. Excluding
biotech, older health care companies did poorly after the election,
but this wasn't new as they've been lousy investments all year.
Oil stocks reacted to higher prices and ignored the change in Congress.
During the fourth quarter, biotech, energy, and consumer spending
stocks were the top performers while transportation and health care
stocks brought up the rear. Smaller companies outperformed bigger
ones, REITs kept going, and investors generally preferred value
over growth. For reference, here's the stock market segment scorecard
for the fourth quarter.
|
|
Symbol
|
9/29/06
|
12/29/06
|
% Change
|
|
Microcap
|
IWC
|
53.40
|
58.45
|
9.46%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
IJS
|
69.75
|
75.34
|
8.01%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
IJR
|
61.29
|
65.99
|
7.67%
|
|
REITs
|
VNQ
|
71.89
|
77.00
|
7.11%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
IJJ
|
74.00
|
79.24
|
7.08%
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
IJT
|
119.50
|
127.96
|
7.08%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
IVE
|
71.81
|
76.89
|
7.07%
|
|
MidCap
|
IJH
|
75.44
|
80.17
|
6.27%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
IVV
|
133.75
|
142.00
|
6.17%
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
IJK
|
75.39
|
79.71
|
5.73%
|
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
IVW
|
61.70
|
64.92
|
5.22%
|
Source: Thomson
One Financial
In addition,
here's the stock market index and industry group scorecard for the
same period:
|
|
Symbol
|
9/29/06
|
12/29/06
|
% Change
|
|
Dow
Industrials
|
INDU
|
11,679.07
|
12,463.15
|
6.71%
|
|
Nasdaq
Composite
|
COMPQ
|
2,258.43
|
2,415.29
|
6.95%
|
|
S&P
500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,335.85
|
1,418.30
|
6.17%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
669.64
|
754.25
|
12.64%
|
|
Energy
|
SPENS
|
411.38
|
455.53
|
10.73%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
SPCCS
|
275.86
|
302.92
|
9.81%
|
|
Utilities
|
SPUT
|
172.33
|
186.60
|
8.28%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
1,010.20
|
1,090.63
|
7.96%
|
|
Financials
|
SPFN
|
465.83
|
495.31
|
6.33%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
SICSS
|
188.53
|
200.59
|
6.40%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
IXI
|
333.93
|
352.16
|
5.46%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
SPIN
|
306.29
|
322.63
|
5.34%
|
|
Technology
|
SPHTI
|
336.28
|
356.28
|
5.95%
|
|
Clean
Energy
|
ECO
|
176.32
|
182.06
|
3.26%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
SPCNS
|
260.75
|
268.41
|
2.94%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
4,453.46
|
4,560.20
|
2.40%
|
|
Health
Care
|
HCX
|
384.94
|
388.74
|
0.99%
|
Source: Thomson
One Financial
In the fixed
income market, bond investors ignored our last quarterly letter
and yields rose slightly during the fourth quarter. In spite of
a slowdown in economic growth and inflation, bond investors waited
in vain for some signal that the Federal Reserve would bring short-term
interest rates in line with the rest of the yield curve.
|
Current
Yield
|
9/29/06
|
12/29/06
|
%
Change
|
|
90
day Treasury Bills
|
4.89%
|
5.02%
|
2.7%
|
|
5
Year Treasury Bonds
|
4.59%
|
4.70%
|
2.4%
|
|
10
Year Treasury Bonds
|
4.64%
|
4.71%
|
1.5%
|
Source: Bloomberg
LP
The yield curve
remains inverted at the short end, and we still expect the next
move in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to be down. Weakness
in housing should allow economic growth to continue to moderate,
and the inflation rate is also expected to be lower in 2007. We
expect lower bond yields in 2007 and remain invested in the under
10-year segment of the market as the incremental risk of investing
in longer maturities outweighs the incremental return. At present,
yield spreads versus Government Agency bonds are highest at 4-6
years.

Source: Bloomberg
LP
Overall, 2006
was a good year for investors. Interest rates ended the year with
yields a bit higher than they were at the end of 2005, but bonds
still produced a positive return. Although stocks produced an above-average
return, this return about matched the underlying increase in earnings.
While some pundits
expect returns to moderate in 2007, we're in the opposite camp.
Valuations in the stock market have been rising since the summer.
According to our model, stocks are still more than 16% undervalued
relative to interest rates. As a result, we expect valuations to
rise further in 2007. Although earnings growth will probably moderate,
earnings are likely to remain strong enough to produce another double-digit
return in stocks in 2007.
We're also excited
about 2007 for another reason. There's now a light at the end of
the tunnel when it comes to the constantly increasing demand for
foreign oil. Electric cars with enough range, performance, and comfort
to satisfy American drivers will begin hitting the market this year.
Whether you worry about global warming or about the consequences
of our dependence on foreign oil, this is good news. If you'd like
more information, please see our article at NataliePace.com
in the January 2007 online magazine.
Paul Woods
is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment
advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management
for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit
institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Newbies Treat Wall
Street Like a Casino.
A
reprint of our January 10, 2007 online chat with money manager,
Paul Woods, President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income
management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments,
and non-profit institutions.
Natalie
Pace: Paul, this is the pre-election year, which you say adds a
"bounce" to your step. 2003 turned out to be a great year
for returns, largely because it was preceded by the October 2002
low point, but this year, I'm sensing something that I didn't in
2003, which has me even more optimistic for 2007. I'm starting to
hear lots of people talking stocks, now that the real estate market
is rolling overÉ Your thoughts on this? Do you think that the current
declining market of real estate and the mediocre market of bonds
will drive people over to stocks in droves?
Paul Woods:
In the last few years, money that might have gone into stocks has
gone into real estate instead. With real estate rolling over and
bond yields low, I think stocks now look better in comparison. Money
will probably go into stocks by default.
And then
you have newbies rushing over to the stock market and the market
going higher, which adds a level of exuberance to the equation,
right? (As a pro, we love that!). I'm starting to see the CNBC factor.
Your thoughts?
Newbies tend
to treat the stock market like a casino, which adds a lot of volatilityÉ
Very astute.
So, for all of the people in the chat room who want to act more
like you (gaining from volatility), how do you play that? Do you
like the charts that track movements and momentum?
Investing isn't
all that complicated. For stocks, you only have to remember two
things. Smaller companies outperform larger ones, and stocks that
are cheap outperform stocks that are expensive. A small cap value
ETF is a great place for investors to start, as a result.
Will you
give our chatters a couple of symbols for small cap ETFs they might
check out? Also, do you have any sector ETFs that you like (biotech,
green energy, etc...)
The best small
cap value ETF (lowest fees) is VBR. If you want to invest in alternative
energy, PBW is a good one.
Also, how
many of you in the chat room are interested in options? I've been
getting a lot of questions from people who are completely new to
investing in the stock market who say they are investing in options.
Paul, will you comment on options trading for the beginning investor?
Don't do it.
The brokers selling them make money. The folks buying them lose
money.
I'm pretty
much a newbie. I can attest to being affected by CNBC. For instance,
I bought lots of penny STEMCELL stocks on my own, yet was hyped
by talk of the House of Reps and stem cell research on Election
Day. They are all worth a lot less now, but I think I have to stay
in since they promise relief to afflicted people.
The problem
is that it can take over 10 years to get these products to market,
and it costs a lot of money. The human testing process is a roll
of the dice. Lots of companies don't make it. The best way to do
this is with a package of companies. Assume that most will blow
up, but if one makes it, it will be worth it.
Natalie:
There are also snake charmers who capitalize on the good sentiments
of people's emotions. So be very careful when you invest in penny
stocks, no matter what business the company is allegedly in. Paul,
I'm sure you have a lot to say on penny stocks. One thing I'll say
is that these are companies that can't make the grade to be traded
on one of the big boards. You have to do 100 times the research
before investing.
You are right.
But occasionally you find companies with real products and a big
backlog of orders. I have to confess to playing with these once
in a while.
I am interested
in investing in Canada and in "ethical" stocks. Particularly
in alternative energy stocks. Any suggestions?
The Wilderhill
Clean energy Portfolio includes a lot of alternative energy stocks
in an exchange traded fund. Symbol is PBW. In general, I think ethanol
and hydrogen make no sense. I'm partial to solar, wind and hybrid
and electric car technology.
How about
in Europe, India or China?
We have small
investments in Europe and own some solar companies in China. Have
yet to find anything compelling in India.
I'm just
wondering what else is out there, and being a Canadian, I'm particularly
interested in investing here.
I own several
Canadian oil and gas trusts, which pay nice dividends.
I also own
several Canadian trusts - BTE, ENT, PDS, for the monthly dividends.
I'm glad to hear that you trust the trusts, Paul.
The biggest
problem is that Canadian oil and gas trusts will lose preferential
tax treatment in a few years unless the current government changes
its mind.
SoÉ you have
a time limit on these trusts? Are you putting them on your sell
list for 2009, pending further information on tax status?
Right now, the
trusts are priced as though the preferential treatment for dividends
will disappear. If that happens, we may shift to some American oil
and gas trusts that have a longer reserve life.
Do you think
that they will lose their value precipitously? How long can one
stay in them? The dividends are great!
They lost their
value in about a week, once plans to change the tax status were
announced. Some of them look pretty cheap at present.
Paul. What
do you think of those Canadian oil sands that I've been hearing
so much about?
We haven't invested
in oil sands companies, but they have a lot of potential if you
assume the price of oil stays high.
Would you
assume the price of oil stays high? Or do you think hybrid and electrical
technology will impact the consumption (demand) anytime soon?
I think
there's another big spike in oil prices in our future as China keeps
growing. Too many reserves are off limits in this country, so there's
going to be an imbalance between supply and demand. However, the
companies making hybrids are laying the foundation for electric
cars. More than anything else, that will take the pressure off oil
prices at some point in the not too distant future.
I'm not interested
in investing in oil, but gas is a bit closer. I'm considering in
investing in a company that refurbishes gas extraction equipment.
NPACE: What
do you know about gas extraction and/or this company that makes
it an investment you are considering?
Actually,
I know very little, but I am studying investing with an investment
mentoring company, and my advisor has drawn my attention to a company
called Alliance Leasing that may become an IPO this year. It is
a U.S. company. I gather that there is a shortage of drilling rigs,
so they refurbish ones that were in use in the 70s.
NPace: My strategy
for investing is: 1) invest in what you know and love. 2) pick the
leader in the sector. 3) buy low; sell high. If you are relying
on the advice of a mentor, be sure that you know his/her returns
on EVERY STOCK they have ever recommended. If you are investing
in the wisdom of a guru, the first thing you should know is the
total value of their returns, ie. how good they are at the game.
If s/he is legitimate, then s/he should be tracked by an independent
organization like TipsTraders or Hulbert's Financial Digest. You
wouldn't want to place your faith and future in just anyone's handsÉ
What's the
relationship of oil and gold prices. If I'm interested in a position
in gold still, are there any specific ETFs etc., or is a basket
of gold stocks a better strategy? I consider myself a newbie, but
I have taken a number of seminars on basic technical analysis and
value investing and do my reading and researchÉ
The only connection
I can find between oil and gold is that they're both commodities,
and we're running out of oil. Some of the foilks buying gold also
have bomb shelters and a six-month supply of food. They worry me
a bit.
SoÉ about
goldÉ Forget it? Or stock up and move into a cave?
NPACE: Gold
returns 7% on average annualized, compared to over 12% for stocks
and 7% for real estate. Move into a house. Buy stocks. Wear gold
jewelry and/or play in gold...
Paul Woods:
Buy a house first, then invest in stocks. If you're going to invest
in gold, don't make it a big part of your portfolio and use an ETF.
Are you familiar
with hy-drive, a Canadian company doing hydrogen fuel and Tide,
and American company working on gas lines to Mexico?
I'm not. Hydrogen
will never be an economical fuel and a hydrogen tank on a car can
explode and turn an entire car into shrapnel in a crash. For zero
emission vehicles, battery technology has advanced to the point
that electric cars are the only viable option.
I have been
paying attention to an alternative treatment for anxiety, depression
and learning disorders - CES, cranial electrical stimulation, since
the early 1990s. it is a way of slowing down the ratio of super
fast beta waves that some people exhibit, which causes them to self
medicate with alcohol and marijuana, which both lower the activity
of beta waves in favor of alpha waves. Clinically, many children
of alcoholics were able to go through a six-week CES training session,
and then their brain waves normalized, and they weren't attracted
to drugs or alcohol. I am mentioning this because I think the technology
needs investment, and then can take market share from pharmaceuticals.
Eric Braverman, MD, PATH, is associated with CES, and the technology
comes from Washington state.
I'm not familiar
with the technology, but there's a glut of venture capital out there
so it should get funded if it works.
Natalie:
If you wish to contact Paul directly, you can call Odyssey Advisors
at 310.568.4700. Their firm manages the assets of high net worth
individuals and institutions. When you switch from brokers up to
money managers, you are ensuring that you have wisdom and experience
on your side... You do have to have a higher net value to qualify,
but it might be more within reach than you might have known. Paul
what is the minimum amount needed to shop for a money manager?
$100,000.
Paul is one
of the smartest guys on Wall Street, so contact him if you qualify
for his services and think he might be better able to manage your
assets!
Paul Woods
is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment
advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management
for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit
institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Identity
Theft: Don't Leave Your Computer Unlocked With the Keys Inside.
by Jay
Pestrichelli, Senior Vice President of Client Experience, TD AMERITRADE.
 |
| Jay Pestrichelli,
Senior Vice President of Client Experience, TD AMERITRADE |
Stop me if you've
heard this before. A young, single professional is going through
the motions to buy her first home. She's sitting with her mortgage
provider, poring over her credit report, when she realizes that
unauthorized credit cards have been issued under her name. The cards
are carrying substantial balances that have never been paid off,
each accounting for a sizable drop in her credit rating.
Or, how about
this one: a man logs into his online brokerage account to rebalance
his portfolio before the end of the year. He notices several unauthorized
transactions and thousands of dollars withdrawn from his account.
And, still worse,
a single mother has just finished paying her monthly bills. She
has a well-paying job in marketing and earns more than enough to
pay for her monthly expenses - as well as a little extra for savings
and investing. She is surprised a week later when her bank notifies
her that she has significantly overdrawn her account. After reviewing
her latest statement, she finds three checks addressed to her nanny
that she didn't issue, totaling more than $5,000.
What's the common
thread? Unfortunately, in each of these cases we're talking about
victims of identity theft, or the targeting of your personal or
financial information by criminals to commit fraud. It's a problem
that impacts millions of people each year. According to a January
2006 survey from the Better Business Bureau and Javelin Strategy
and Research, 8.9 million adults were victims of identity crime
in 2005.1
Criminal activity
is not new, but identity theft is a new twist on conventional criminal
methods. Identity theft takes many forms, but the most common are
the following:
- Outright
theft - stealing your purse or wallet;
- Mail fraud
- stealing your mail and responding to credit card offers or using
other information, such as bank statements, to steal personal
information;
- Dumpster
diving - going through your garbage in search of account numbers,
credit card information or, worse yet, your Social Security number;
- Skimming
- copying your credit card when it's out of your hands;
- Spyware -
accessing your personal computer to collect User IDs, passwords
and other sensitive information; and
- Phishing
- tricking you into disclosing personal information on a Web site
that looks real but is really a counterfeit.
So, what can
we do about it? Companies with a heavy online presence, like the
one I represent, TD AMERITRADE, spend considerable time and effort
developing security systems that help prevent infiltration. However,
while we do everything in our power to make sure that our systems
are secure, we're limited in what we can do to help individual clients
keep their own systems secure from intrusions. We can't configure
every computer or wireless device that our clients use to access
their accounts - just as a bank can't control who has access to
its credit card holders' wallets.
Let's face it,
identity theft is scary, but we're not helpless in the fight to
prevent it. You would never knowingly leave your car unlocked, with
the keys in the ignition, in a public place - would you? Use the
same mentality when it comes to protecting yourself against identity
theft. Understand the threats and know what you can do about them.
TD AMERITRADE,
like other online brokerages and banks, is committed to developing
tools, educational information and services to help consumers protect
themselves from identity theft. The home base for much of our information
is located in the online Security
Center, which anyone can access at http://www.tdameritrade.com/security/index.html.
At the Security Center, we explain the various threats that exist
and offer tips you can take to help protect yourself, including:
- Use passwords
and protect them. This is a big one. One of the easiest and most
effective ways to protect your information is to use strong, unique
passwords for each of your accounts. Don't write them down and
don't share them with anyone.
- Don't use
public computers, like those in Internet Cafes, hotels or restaurants
for sensitive transactions.
- Never share
personal information over e-mail.
- Watch for
and check your statements regularly. Pick up the phone if they
do not show up, or if you see any activity you do not recognize.
- Keep your
personal information in a safe place in your home, especially
if you employ domestic help or have roommates.
- Unless you
know the caller, don't provide personal or financial information
over the phone. If a caller sounds suspicious, get his/her name
and phone number and call the company back at its listed
phone number to verify the caller's identity.
- Consider
using a lockable mailbox at your residence to reduce the chance
of mail theft. Leave outgoing mail in post office collection boxes
or at the post office.
- Pick up new
checks at the bank, rather than having them mailed to you. If
they are mailed to you, make sure that they are all accounted
for.
- Shred your
personal papers.
And finally,
ask your bank or brokerage about added assistance they may offer.
At TD AMERITRADE, we give our clients access to free software that
can help protect their personal computers from threats, like Trojans,
keystroke loggers and eavesdroppers and discounts to internet security
software that help guard against viruses, spyware, and phishing
attacks. In addition, we help clients monitor for fraudulent activity
through convenient means, such as displaying the last time the account
was logged into, right on their secure home page.
We also offer
an Asset Protection Guarantee. If you lose cash or securities from
your account due to unauthorized activity, we'll reimburse you for
the cash or share of securities you lost - period. We're
promising you this protection, which adds to the provisions that
already govern your account, in case unauthorized activity ever
occurs and we determine it was through no fault of your own. We
can guarantee this if you work with us in three ways:
1) Keep your account information secure and confidential
- don't share it, because sharing your UserID, password, PIN, or
account number with other people means you authorize them to take
action in your account.
2) Frequently check your account and report any suspicious
or unauthorized activity to us immediately.
3) Take the steps we request if your account is ever compromised
and cooperate with our investigation. If you help us protect you
in these basic ways, we'll promise no fine print and no footnotes...just
our commitment to protect the assets you entrust to us.
How's that for
peace of mind?
Jay Pestrichelli
is Senior Vice President of Client Experience for TD AMERITRADE.
TD AMERITRADE, Inc., member NASD/SIPC.
This is not
an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized
to do business. Past performance of a security does not guarantee
future results. All investments are subject to investment risk,
including possible loss of the principal invested.
Editor's
Note: Many brokerages and banks offer Asset Protection Guarantees
and information on how to safeguard your assets from fraud. Check
with your broker or banker for details.
|
|
The Changing of the
Guard Ñ the New Congressional Agenda.
Michael
Townsend, vice president, Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, Schwab.
After working
into the wee hours Saturday morning, current lawmakers finished
a final sprint to complete the 109th session of Congress. The lawmakers
will return after the New Year to begin the 110th session when Democrats
will control both chambers for the first time in 12 years. In an
unusual move, Democratic Party leaders have said that work on issues
will begin immediately after the swearing-in of new members on Jan.
4, 2007. Typically, substantive work does not begin until after
the State of the Union address, which is towards the end of January.
In their first acts of power, Democrats are expected to address
the federal minimum wage, lobbying and ethics reform, and Medicare
prescription drug costs.
Overall, we
expect to see an increased focus on consumer protection issues,
an effort to improve tax collection, an attempt to mitigate the
impact of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) on middle-class taxpayers,
and a new emphasis on how regulation impacts the strength of the
U.S. financial markets. Here are some of the issues likely to be
on the agenda in 2007:
Consumer
Protection
- Credit
Card Practices Ñ Incoming Senate Banking Committee Chairman
Christopher Dodd (D-CT) has long fought for clearer credit-card
disclosures and an end to what he believes are abusive practices.
He and Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) have already said that credit-card
practices will be the focus of hearings in at least two committees
in 2007.
- Executive
Pay Ñ Incoming House Financial Services Committee Chairman
Barney Frank (D-MA) has pushed legislation to require more disclosure
about executive pay and empower shareholders to be involved in
some executive pay decisions.
- Hedge
Funds Ñ Both Chairmen Dodd and Frank have said in recent weeks
that they are not inclined to push legislation with regard to
hedge funds. But hedge funds are a likely target for hearings,
with Frank in particular having expressed concern about whether
pension funds ought to be investing in hedge funds.
- 401(k)
Fees Ñ Rep. George Miller (D-CA), the incoming chair of the
House Committee on Education & the Workforce, has said that
he will hold hearings looking into whether the fees that 401(k)
plan providers charge are appropriate and whether plan participants
understand the impact fees can have on their retirement savings.
Taxes
- President
Bush's Tax Cuts Ñ It is unlikely that Democrats will seek
any large-scale rollback of the tax cuts of recent years, particularly
in a Presidential election cycle. Most of the tax cuts (e.g. income
tax rates, 15 percent rate on capital gains and dividends, the
phase-out of the estate tax) expire in 2010, so decisions about
what to do about them will likely be left to the next Congress,
which begins in January 2009.
- Alternative
Minimum Tax Ñ There is considerable bipartisan interest in
fixing the AMT, which was created in the late 1960s to ensure
that a handful of the wealthiest Americans paid some tax. Today,
millions of increasingly middle-class Americans are impacted by
the AMT, and that number will rise to an estimated 30 million
by 2010. The incoming chair of the Senate Finance Committee (Sen.
Max Baucus, D-MT) and of the House Ways & Means Committee
(Rep. Charles Rangel, D-NY) have labeled this a top priority Ñ
but the price tag for fixing the AMT is enormously high, so there
are no easy solutions.
- Closing
the "Tax Gap" Ñ Another top priority in 2007 will
be finding ways to recoup some of the estimated $300 billion in
taxes that are owed but go uncollected each year. Finance Committee
Chairman Baucus is particularly passionate about this issue and
is likely to look at requiring brokers to report the cost basis
of stock sales to both customers and the IRS, which would improve
collection of capital gains taxes.
Financial
Markets
- Sarbanes-Oxley
Ñ There is considerable interest in Congress in looking at whether
some parts of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance law cost
more to public companies than the benefits they provide to shareholders,
investors and consumers. Hearings are likely.
- Overall
Competitiveness of U.S, Markets Ñ The recent report of the
Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, which raised some concerns
about whether legal and regulatory barriers are resulting in the
U.S. markets losing ground to foreign markets, is likely to be
the focus of attention in both the Senate Banking and House Financial
Services Committees.
|
|
Get a Better Job, Get a Better Life.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero
to Zillionaire.
 |
| Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire. |
Not only are
we working too hard, but a lot of us are working at jobs we don't
even like! One day, I was asked to give a speech, and especially
to say something about retirement.
"So here's
my tip," I said, "Don't retire."
The audience
looked at me quizzically.
"If you
are working at a job you hate just to put in enough time to get
your pension and retire, you are wasting your life. Did you ever
hear of a movie star saying, ÔI can't wait until I have my pension
funded so I can retire and stop making all these movies'? No. Because
actors love their work. At ninety years old, they're trying to convince
insurance companies how healthy they are so that they can make a
movie. They die onstage. They want to die working because they love
their jobs. Find work you love and you won't want to retire from
it. Then you can live life richly, fully, enjoying every day, instead
of waiting for the day when you can retire. Retire to do what? Lie
on the beach? For how many days would that be interesting?"
"Besides,
a lot of people don't make it to age 65. Many people die before
they reach retirement age. So I suggest you don't wait to enjoy
life until you retire. Besides, if you live unhappily all your working
life, you'll be locked in the habit pattern of living unhappily.
Start enjoying life now, or you won't know how to later."
I could see
that some of these people weren't that happy about what I was saying.
I could tell from looking at them that many of them didn't love
their jobs. It showed on their faces. What they really wanted was
The Magic Answer of how they could retire quicklyÑlike how they
could get a million dollars saved by next weekÑso they could be
free to do what they wanted.
It doesn't
work like that. It takes timeÑunless you win the Lotto. But planning
to win the Lotto isn't a good retirement plan because it only works
for one out of twenty million people. Oh, you could be the one!
I just suggest you have a back-up plan in place in case it happens
a little further down the road than you expect, if someone else
is doing more affirmations every day than you areÉ
Make
the Days of Your Life Count
There's
an ancient Sufi story of a wealthy man who worked hard all his life
amassing a fortune. Growing older, he took a break from work to
decide what to do next, and just at that moment, Death came for
him. He tried to bargain with Death, offering him one hundred thousand
dinars for an extra year of life. Death said no. Two hundred thousand
dinars then, the man begged. Death said no. The man scrambled and
pleaded, offering half his fortune for one extra hour of life, but
Death was implacable. Finally, the man offered his entire fortune
for just one extra moment. Death agreed and the man wrote, with
his last breath, a message to humanity: "Be careful with your
time. I could not buy one additional hour of life for five hundred
thousand dinars."
Do you value
the hours of your life? Are you working at something you love and
believe in and are committed to? Or are you at least working at
something that is preparing you for the work you were born to do?
Do you hate to wake up in the morning because you hate your job?
I had those days once. Days when I woke up in the dark just before
the alarm rang, and thought, "Oh please don't be time to get
up yet. I don't want to have to go to that job." Those were
the worst days of my life.
Don't wait
another day to be happy and fulfilled in your work. Get out. Get
another job. I don't care how tight the job market is, have you
ever seen a newspaper without want ads in it? Read them from the
first "A" all the way to the last "Z", even
engineering or sales or anything you think isn't your style or your
experience or your education. You'll get creative ideas just by
looking at them. Call executive search companies, search the internet,
send the word out to your network. Go back to school if you need
a degree to do the thing that really interests you, that makes your
soul sing.
A psychologist
I worked with once told me that she enrolled in graduate school
to get her doctorate when she was 40 years old. "Why are you
doing that?" her friends asked. "You'll be 50 before you
get your Ph.D.!" She answered, "I'm going to be 50 anyway.
I'll either be 50 without a Ph.D. or 50 with a Ph.D. I'd rather
be 50 with one." And ten years later, she had her doctorate
in psychology. But she was happy every year while she was working
on her goal, not just the years since achieving it. The happiness
of life is in the pursuit of happiness. The artist doesn't
paint one picture, hang it on the wall, and stare at it for sixty
years. The joy of the artist is in the act of creating. And creating.
And creating...
If you want
to join the hordes of Tunas working their lives away in "quiet
desperation", waiting for their Social Security check to give
them respite from soul-deadening work, be my guest. But if you want
to join the Dolphins who are working towards Zillionaire status,
you have different requirements to satisfy. No Zillionaire hates
their job.
Social Security
was set up in the 1930s with the retirement age set at 65 because
most people died by age 63. Social Security was never intended to
be something that supported everyone for the last 25-30 years of
their lives. It was a stop-gap measure to take care of the few people
who outlived the norm and were too frail or sick to work. But like
most things in our lives, our political habits also outlive the
circumstances they were designed to fit. Politicians who serve at
the will of the people have a difficult time asking those same people
to give up their benefits. It's an unpopular political stand to
tinker with Social SecurityÑespecially if you want to raise the
retirement ageÑbut that is what needs to happen.
You can be
angry about that; you can complain that you paid taxes lo these
many years and you shouldn't have those benefits you counted on
taken away from you, but guess what? Play "Show me the money!"
and count it up: No government can keep High Budget spending on
Low Budget income forever. Some ingrained political habits need
to be broken.
But you are
a Zillionaire-in-training, so don't wait for the government to catch
up. You aren't interested in living your senior years on Social
Security Low Budget anyway. You need to take your own actions to
make sure you are living life to the fullest and saving pots of
money for later, tooÑbut much later. Consider me your habit-breaker,
the counter-intuitive financial advisor who says retirement is not
the goal. Saving money is not the end-all and be-all of your life.
It's just a line item on your budget. It deserves attention and
contributions, but not everything. As the Citibank advertisement
said, "If you gave up your morning coffee for a year, you could
make an extra mortgage payment. But man, you'd be grumpy."
Chellie Campbell
is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit.
She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops
on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs
throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine at www.chellie.com.
|
|
Winging It.
by Margaret
Heffernan.
An
excerpt from the new book from How
She Does It: How Women Entrepreneurs
are Changing the Rules of Business Success.
How
She Does It:
How Women Entrepreneurs are Changing the Rules of Business
Success (Viking; On-sale date: January 22, 2007; ISBN: 978-0-670-03823-7;
$25.95; 288 pages). Part biography and part blueprint for starting
and running a successful business, HOW SHE DOES IT redefines
power and the nature of success for the 21st century.
Reprinted
by arrangement with Viking, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.
Copyright © 2007 by Margaret Heffernan.
When I finally get through on the phone, much to my amazement, June
Coldren is laughing. "Oh my god, it's ridiculous. It's been
insanity. It's pretty wild. We evacuated New Orleans and moved west
to Lafayette -- and now it looks like the storm is heading back
up to us! They're basically evacuating everyone from Galveston right
along the coast to Louisiana. All my staff who were evacuated here
left yesterday to help evacuate their families. Another tidal
surge and everything will get wet all over again. I'm ready to move
to Canada!"
June's family and her companies, Cenergy Corp. and Cenergy Logistics,
were based in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina hit on August 29,
2005. Everyone scattered, to friends, to family. But when it was
all over, June had two companies to run, companies that catered
to the oil and gas companies in the Gulf of Mexico, themselves in
turmoil. Three weeks after the storm hit, the website proudly announced
that Cenergy was up and running.
"I love just winging it. That's just how I am. The logistics
group - some of them live in Lafayette so they came here and set
up. So then we all got in touch and realized Lafayette was going
to be best place to be. We identified an office, set up, signed
a lease and moved in. Everyone who could get here did. The hard
thing was to find places to live. There were no hotel rooms, no
houses to rent. One of the guys I work with had an extra house so
I feel like a queen because I have a house to live in! But a lot
of people didn't luck out like that. You have to keep going."
Not every business gets hit by a hurricane. But every business will
suffer shocks and setback - and successes - it had in no way foreseen.
You can plan, do your research, and plan again. But the one
thing you have to be able to do is improvise. What makes women so
good at this is that they have, as psychologist Simon Baron-Cohen
wrote, "no expectation of lawfulness." Women do
not approach business expecting it to obey rules. We don't think
of business as a machine which, if we could just understand the
physics well enough, we could control. So many descriptions of business
and management carry this assumption: that if you could just study
companies deeply enough, crunch the numbers long enough, you can
glean the scientific laws of business that govern business behavior.
But business isn't a science; you can't design or conduct replicable
experiments. No two companies are the same, no two days are the
same. The variables are infinite. And so starting from the premise
that there are rules is doomed to frustration. Where women
start - with no expection of lawfulness - turns out to be a lot
more realistic. That doesn't mean women don't believe in plans
or decisions. It just means that we aren't especially thrown when
events render them meaningless.
Margaret Heffernan
has been the CEO of five different businesses in the United States
and the UK. A former producer for the BBC and author of The Naked
Truth: A Working Woman's Manifesto on Business and What Really Matters,
she is a regular contributor to both Real Business and Fast
Company magazine as well as a Visiting Professor of Entrepreneurship
at the Simmons College School of Management.
As the CEO of
five different businesses in the United States and the UK, Margaret
Heffernan knows a thing or two about the evolving role of women
in business - and in How
She Does It: How Women Entrepreneurs are Changing the Rules
of Business Success (Viking; On-sale date: January 22, 2007;
ISBN: 978-0-670-03823-7; $25.95; 288 pages), she profiles 27 of
the most dynamic and visionary female entrepreneurs working in business
today.
|
|
New
Year, New Job Ñ What To Do With Your 401(k).
by Rande
Spiegelman, vice president of financial planning, Schwab
Center for Investment Research.
Leaving
a job to take a new position (or look for one) can be pretty stressful.
There's a lot to think about, including what to do with the 401(k)
you had at your old job. Making a smart decision could save you
some money, not to mention keep you on track for a comfortable retirement.
Four
Choices for Your 401(k)
When you
leave a job where you contributed to a 401(k), you have four basic
choices:
1. Take the
cash
2. Leave the
money where it is
3. Roll it over
into your new employer's
4. Roll it over
into an individual retirement account (IRA)
The most tempting
choice may be to take the money, especially if you're unemployed
and could use the cash. "I'm still young," you think.
"There's plenty of time to make up the money I'm skimming from
my 401(k)." But unless you have absolutely no choice, don't
do it.
If you take
money out of your 401(k) before the age of 59-and-a-half (or before
age 55 in the case of "separation from service") you have
to pay a 10 percent federal penalty (state penalties may also apply).
Even if penalties don't apply, you'll still be subject to federal,
state and, in some cases, local income taxes. What's more, the government
will help itself to 20 percent of your withdrawal as an advance
on your tax bill.
For example,
if you cash out of a 401(k) worth $56,000, you could end up paying
a federal penalty of $5,600 plus, say, 28 percent in federal income
tax
(20 percent
of which is withheld from the distribution). Your $56,000 has turned
into $34,720. And that doesn't even include any state and local
taxes and penalties you may owe.
Taking
Cash From Your 401(k)
Pros:
- Immediate use
of your money
Cons:
- Money loses
tax-deferred status
- 20 percent
mandatory withholding
- May be subject
to a federal 10 percent early withdrawal penalty, state penalties
where applicable, and additional federal, state and local taxes
- Lose flexibility
to move into qualified plan or IRA after 60 days
What's more,
the opportunity cost will likely be huge. That $56,000, left to
grow at, say, a hypothetical 8 percent annual rate (1) of return
would amount to roughly $563,500 some 30 years from now. That kind
of money would come in handy during retirement. And that's the point,
after all.
"But what
if I only take out $5,000?" you say. You might still end up
paying a $500 penalty plus $1,400 in federal tax (assuming a 28
percent bracket), leaving you with just $3,100 left over Ñ with
possible state and local taxes still to pay. That $5,000 growing
tax deferred at our hypothetical 8 percent for 30 years could become
$50,300 in retirement money.
A car, travel,
credit card debt, even a home or a college education usually aren't
good enough reasons to dip into your 401(k), much less rent and
groceries. Don't raid your retirement assets unless you have no
other choice.
Here are some
wiser choices; in each case, your money continues to grow tax deferred
for retirement:
- Leave your
money in your old 401(k) even though you don't work at company anymore
(but make sure you're comfortable dealing with former employer)
- Roll over the
money directly into your new employer's 401(k) when take a new job
- Roll it over
directly into your own IRA
Most employers
pre-select the mutual funds available in their 401(k) plans, which
can be a plus or a drawback. The ability to choose from 15 or 20
funds, for example, provides a nice range of choices without the
hassle of screening hundreds of funds yourself. But if your 401(k)
offers only three or four fund selections, you may want to think
about an IRA rollover (more below).
Keep in mind
that a 401(k) is a "one size fits all" retirement plan.
Your company has to manage the plan with all of its employees in
mind, not just you. Expect less flexibility than you would generally
get with your own IRA. On the plus side, your employer will likely
pay any administrative fees Ñ not necessarily so with an IRA.
Stay
in Your Old 401(k)
Pros:
- Avoid current
income taxes, penalties and 20 percent withholding
- Money continues
to grow tax deferred
- Retain ability
to roll over at a later date
Cons:
- Investment
choices limited to employer's plan
- Plan may limit
withdrawals and exchange between investments
Roll
Over to New Employer's 401(k)
Pros:
- Avoid current
income taxes, penalties and 20 percent withholding
- Money continues
to grow tax deferred
- Easier to track
retirement assets
- May
be able to borrow against your 401(k)
Cons:
- Investment
choices limited to employer's plan
- Plan may limit
withdrawals and exchange between investments
The other possibility
is to roll over your 401(k) money into an IRA. Like a 401(k), an
IRA keeps your retirement money growing tax deferred, but with two
major advantages: flexibility and control.
- Flexibility.
An IRA generally allows you to invest your money however you like
Ñ mutual funds, stocks, bonds and so on. You'll likely have advice
from the financial institution that holds the IRA, and you can reallocate
your investments whenever and however you please (minus any trading
fees, of course).
- Control. With
an IRA, you can invest and access your money without having to go
through a 401(k) provider.
However, there
are some caveats:
- A
qualified employer plan, such as a 401(k), may have more legal protection
from creditors than an IRA. Although the level of IRA protection
differs under various state laws, a 2005 U.S. Supreme Court ruling
(Rousey v. Jacoway, 03-1407) shields traditional IRA assets in bankruptcy
when the funds are found reasonably necessary for the account holder's
or his/her dependents' support. Furthermore, federal bankruptcy
reform signed into law in 2005 protects from creditors Ñ for any
reason up to $1 million held in traditional and Roth IRAs.
- You
can usually borrow from your current 401(k) plan, but not from your
IRA (not
that borrowing from your future retirement is a good idea, except
in cases of extreme need).
- If
you have company stock in your 401(k) you should think twice before
rolling it over into an IRA. Company stock held in a 401(k) could
receive favorable tax treatment if it's gone up in value and you
have distributed directly. Such favorable treatment doesn't apply
if company stock is rolled over into an IRA, though there can be
benefits to this choice as well.
Rolling
Over to Your Own IRA
Pros:
- Avoid current
income taxes, penalties and 20 percent withholding
- Money continues
to grow tax deferred
- Choose your
own investments
- Maximum flexibility
Ñ Roll IRA assets back into a 401(k) or convert Roth
IRA at a later date
- Easy access
to your investments
Cons:
- Can't borrow
against assets
- No special
distribution alternatives such as net unrealized appreciation (NUA)
treatment for distributions of company stock, or forward averaging
- May have to
pay annual fee
- Beyond state
law, traditional IRA assets are generally protected from creditors
to the extent the funds are found reasonably necessary for support
(U.S. Supreme Court).
- Traditional
and Roth IRA assets are protected for any reason only up to $1 million
under federal bankruptcy law
There you have
it: four basic choices for what to do with your 401(k). You may
want to do some more research to figure out the best choice in your
particular case, or even get advice from a financial or tax advisor.
Lastly, don't forget about the power of tax-deferred compounding:
Be sure to contribute to the 401(k) plan at your new job and, if
you can, continue making contributions to your IRA.
For more articles
related to retirement strategies, please click the following link:
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/retirement_strategies/index.html
(1) The 8
percent return is for illustrative purposes only, and is not necessarily
indicative of anything available now or in the future.
|
|
Blue Chip Returns:
#1 for 20 Years.
by Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment
Quality Trends stock newsletter.
 |
| Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter
|
Editor's
Note: Kelley Wright is currently outperforming all of his peers,
by bringing in the top risk-adjusted returns on Wall Street with
his stock newsletter, IQTrends.com,
for the past 20 years, at 12.9% according to Hulbert's Financial
Digest.
I
had the pleasure last week to participate in the annual Business
and Financial Roundtable that is sponsored by The Daily Transcript,
San Diego's only daily business newspaper. The moderator
was Executive Editor George Chamberlin, a long-time San Diego advocate
for investor education.
The
Roundtable is a free-flowing discussion on a wide-range of topics
which include: the macro-economy; publicly-traded San Diego based
companies; the broader markets, interest rates, oil, gold and real
estate.
The
expertise of the seven participants ranged from investment advisors,
hedge fund managers, private equity syndications, real estate speculators,
investment bankers and of course, yours truly.
As
you might expect, the range of opinions were quite varied. As you
might also expect, nobody strayed too far from their world view
or the belief that their sector or area of focus was in good shape
and they were looking for a good year. Even the real estate proponents
were upbeat and opined that the worst was over.
At
the end of the ninety minute session I came away with renewed affirmation
that while these discussions are interesting, they can become distractions
from the primary purpose of investing; growing a capital and income
base to meet the long-term cash needs of the investor.
It
is our opinion that one invests to generate cash now or cash later.
In either event all investment portfolios are eventually relied
upon to produce the cash needed to meet ones needs. A need is anything
one feels is necessary or desirable to make them feel safe and secure.
Examples might include a secure retirement income, education funding,
elder care or other special needs, or merely to maintain a specific
lifestyle.
When
needs are unmet the investor feels anxiety and often takes on unnecessary
risk to correct the situation. Too often these risks are beyond
the investors' emotional threshold of pain and they end up selling
at major market turning points.
It
is our opinion that investors can avoid these situations by deploying
their investment capital into shares of high-quality stocks that
are trading at historic levels of good value as measured by their
dividend yields. While our approach is long-term in nature, we remind
subscribers that building capital and income is a process, not an
event.
We
would point to stocks such as Mc Donald's, which we own at $16 and
$20 and enjoy an average yield on purchase of approximately 5% and
have realized over 300% capital appreciation in slightly less than
four years. We could list many additional examples but MCD is sufficient
to make the point.
In
today's 24/7 world of instantaneous dissemination of political and
economic news, market participants process and react to this news
by placing trades that reflect their analysis of how this news impacts
their investment portfolios. This is the source of market fluctuations
and it applies over all the markets: stocks; bonds; commodities;
interest rates; etc. This is a necessary function of investing and
acts as a form of self-regulation.
Our
job as enlightened investors is to avoid the distractions of the
marketplace and to focus on those decisions that we can control.
This is to say that the macro-economy, interest rates, stock market
fluctuations and the prices of commodities will behave and perform
as they will. Individually we have no control of these matters.
What we can control is where and when we invest our capital. To
that end, as long as we limit our investment considerations to shares
of Select Blue Chips that represent historic good value, over time,
our cash needs will be met and all will be well.
The Investment
Quality Trends newsletter does extensive analysis to determine when
a stock is overvalued and ripe to sell, as well as undervalued and
primed to buy. Check out IQTrends.Com,
where you can go for a free tour of their newsletter and check out
their criteria for evaluating stocks. I've been featuring Kelley
Wright in my ezine for the past few years, and for Blue Chips, you
really cannot get any better than the criteria/formula/screening
of IQTrends.com. Blue Chips generate, for the most part, easy, stable
money returns, and the IQTrends.com
stock newsletter is well worth the small investment that you pay
to receive Kelley's newsletter and research twice a month.
|
|
Buy High; Sell Higher?
Why 2007 is Poised to be a Banner Year.
by Natalie
Pace. Includes our Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
FYI: NataliePace.com
is still at the top of over 830 A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com
in annualized gains! All of the companies featured in NataliePace.com
are pulling down 42% gains on average every year (that's almost
50 cents on the dollar). The list below features 32 companies earning
great gains, versus just five that are headed in the opposite direction.
|
Friday,
January 12, 2007
|
Friday,
January 26, 2007
|
|
Dow: 12,556.08
|
Dow:
12, 487.02
|
|
Nasdaq:
2,502.82
|
Nasdaq:
2,435.49
|
|
S&P:
1,430.73
|
S&P:
1,422.18
|
There are two
trends that I await feverishly. I look forward to the Santa Rally
every year, and the pre-election year rally once every four years.
The Santa Rally - or the last quarter of each year -- typically
sees 50% of the year's stock market gains. The historical performance
of the pre-election year is reliably more rewarding than the other
three years in the Presidential cycle. A strong economy is a better
platform for any candidate to run on, and typically the years between
elections are spent fixing whatever imbalances have occurred as
a result of ramping up for the main event.
Pre-Election
Year Performance Since 1991
|
Years
|
NASDAQ
|
S&P
500
|
Dow Jones
Industrial Average
|
|
1.2.91
- 12.31.91
|
+67%
|
+28%
|
+24%
|
|
1.3.95
- 12.29.95
|
+41%
|
+34%
|
+40%
|
|
1.4.99
- 12.31.99
|
+78%
|
+19.6
|
+20%
|
|
1.2.2003
- 12.31.2003
|
+50%
|
+22%
|
+21%
|
|
Average
for pre-election year returns since 1991
|
+59%
|
+25.9%
|
+26.25%
|
Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
The average
yearly gain for the stock market (the Wilshire 5000) over the past
15 years is just 10.7%, so you can clearly see what a thrill pre-election
years can be!
It's not just
history supporting this trend, however. This year, there continues
to be impressive earnings growth, concentrated in emerging markets,
like Internet Technology, renewable energy and gambling. Google,
eBay, Suntech Power Holdings, Las Vegas Sands and Apple each have
doubled revenue over the last two years.
There is also
no debt and a lot of cash in many of those same sectors (excluding
Las Vegas Sands, which has a lot of debt). Microsoft has $28.8 billion
in cash and short-term investments, Apple sits on $11.8 billion
and Google's war chest boasts $10.4 billion in cash.
Real estate
is rolling over, and investors are migrating from Main Street (real
estate investments) to Wall Street (stocks and mutual funds). Gridlock
in Congress means that nothing changes fast, without bi-partisan
cooperation. In an environment where the status quo seems to be
working for the economy, stalled-out government reform can be beneficial.
So, whereas
three out of four years, January is the top-performing month, and
it's a good time to consider selling out and taking some of your
profits, this January may be the beginning of a great pre-election
year rally, just as we saw in 2003, 1999, 1995 and 1991!
Note that what
we are reporting this in direct opposition to Jim Cramer's counsel
on Mad Money. On January 17, 2007, Jim Cramer told his viewers
to "Bail on technology during the January to August doldrums,
but not on Cisco, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard and Google."
(Those five select technology stocks are "too powerful to be
cowed by seasonality," according to Jim.) Note again, that
in every pre-election year since 1991, there has been NO sustained
or significant downtrend from January through August, just a rocket
ship to gains from January to December, with NASDAQ (which is heavy
on technology) rewarding investors with twice the gains of the Dow
Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
With so many
investors hanging on Cramer's comments, we decided to log in his
lightning round picks on that day as well. We'll return to this
again in June, to see how the year is playing out, and how Cramer's
picks are performing. Incidentally, Cramer's #1 value stock of the
year is Altria, more commonly known as Phillip Morris, the cigarette
company. He's calling it a buy at $88.57.
Think we're
picking on Cramer? Nah, we're just keeping tabs on performance,
which is something that you should do before you bank on any pundit.
If you're interested in tried and true stock picking, it's best
to consult the independent trackers, like Hulbert's
Financial Digest and TipsTraders.com.
These two organizations hold journalists and money managers' feet
to the fire, tracking each and every pick they mention. TipsTraders.com
has me at the top of over 830 A-list pundits with 41% annualized
gains, going into my 8th year. Hulbert's (which doesn't
track my picks yet) places our favorite Blue Chip stock picker,
Kelley Wright of Investment Quality Trends, at #1 in 20-year risk-adjusted
returns, with 12.9% every year, compared to the stock market performance
of 11.6% over the same period. Below are the top performers for
the past 5 years, according to Hulbert's:
Top
Performing Stock Newsletters for the last 5 Years
Outstanding
Investments 34.3%
Closed-end
Country Fund Report 30.6%
The Dines
Letter 29.2%
The Ruff
Times 26.3%
International
Harry Schultz Letter 25.3%
Source: Hulbert's
Financial Digest
We're still
concerned about terrorism and pension fund obligations. War may
be good for Halliburton, but most industries, economies, nations
and people suffer greatly under the influence of violence, destruction,
contention, warmongering and death. An attack on the U.S., as we
experienced in 2001, takes the economy down overnight, so make sure
that you are not over-concentrated in any one asset class - not
real estate, stocks, bonds or Beanie Babies. And remember that past
performance is no guarantee that the future repeats itself. Be balanced,
and always be prepared for surprises. Investing should not be gambling.
(So, be sure to read the article that talks more about that in this
month's ezine.)
With regard
to pension plans, since there are only 3 workers supporting every
retiree these days, corporations that promised money and health
care to their workers are finding it hard to be competitive with
companies that rely on their employees to direct their own retirement
plans (401ks) and health care. Benefits-based pension plans are
largely extinct in corporate America, except for those industries
with a heavy union presence, like defense, airlines, auto manufacturing
and telecommunications. The airlines, telecommunications and auto
sectors have seen many bankruptcies, including Delta, US Airways,
United Airlines, WorldCom, Global Crossing and Delphi. You don't
want to be on the wrong side of this trend.
General Motors
and Ford have kept afloat, but at a heavy price. Ford reported on
January 25, 2007, that they lost $12.7 billion last year. According
to the Associated Press, that loss amounted to "an average
of $1,925 for every car and truck it sold and the worst loss in
the company's 103-year-history." General Motors reported in
November 2006 that they owe over $50 billion to pensions and other
post employment benefits. The market value of GM is only $18.74
billion, and GM's operating income in 2005 was a loss of $16.9 billion.
On January 26, 2007, GM reported that it will delay filing its 4Q
earnings, while it looks into an accounting error from 2002.
Yours in peace
and prosperity,
Natalie
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Interest
Rates: In a Pause Pattern. The Federal Open Market Committee
paused in August, September, October and December, after raising
interest rates 17 consecutive times prior. The federal funds
rate remains at 5-Å%. The next meeting is scheduled over the
course of two days at the end of this month, on January 30-31.
Few are expecting any action this time, and many believe the
next move will be down.
- Interested
in reading the minutes
of the December FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. They are
available online. Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! "Economic growth
has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a
substantial cooling of the housing market," according to
the Feds. While readings on core inflation have been "high,"
the Committee determined that "inflation pressures seem
likely to moderate over time." There was only one governor
who voted for a rate hike of 25 basis points. The other 10 were
in favor of the pause.
The tentative
meeting schedule for the 2007 calendar is: January 30-31,
2007, March 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday), May 9 (Wednesday),
June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday), September
18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December
11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The
fact that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to
increase the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is
an indicator that there is double the concern over managing
the economy in the coming months.
- Online
Chats: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com
regularly. There are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one
with millionaire money managers, economists, respected money
gurus and CEOs! Don't miss out. Enter the chat room now to make
sure that you know how to do it and that you don't have any
firewall issues preventing you from accessing the room. (You'll
need your passwords.)
Bottom Line:
NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your
age, your retirement goals, and your risk tolerance and portfolio
diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher
risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns.
As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm
on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't
operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission
of providing the news and information you need to make better choices
in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a
trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own or intend to buy under the
column "NP OWNS?"
Hot
News on Cool Stocks List
Highlighted
Companies (Hot List):
Apple
(AAPL)
eBay
(EBAY)
GAP
(GPS)
Intuit
(INTU)
OSI
Pharmaceuticals (OSIP)
Siruis
Satellite Radio (SIRI)
U.S.
Gold (UXG), just added to the AMEX & TSX.
Note:
Gap was deleted in the January 2007 issue because the holiday sales
were 8% lower in 2006 from the year prior, and it was clear there
was to be a reshuffling of executives. We've put the Gap back on
our Hot list, now that CEO Paul Pressler has his walking papers.
Read on for more news on Gap, and why the company may be poised
for "cool" again.
RECENT
DELETIONS:
Agilent: Removed on 2.1.07 with flat performance.
Las Vegas
Sands: Removed on 1.1.07. 139% gains are good enough for
us. $223 million in insider selling, just at the time that the
company is under pressure to finalize the terms of their building
of "Asia's Las Vegas" in Macao smells fishier than the
Hong Kong harbor to us.
RELM Wireless
(RELM): This small company has an impressive CEO who has done
great things. The sales are increasing. Normally this would keep
a company like RELM on our list. My concern is simply that while
the marketplace should be huge, the Federal budget line items may
not be ramping up for this type of spending. Additionally, with
all of the focus on cutting back on defense, this communications
company may suffer, even though great communications are key to
firemen, police officers, etc. as well.
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them or if you are willing to
come in at a higher price). There are never any guarantees in life,
and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified
financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.
| Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
1.26.07
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$85.38
|
$85.38
|
$97.80
$45.26
|
--
|
|
Barclay's
Global Investors just purchased over 5% interest in Apple
on January 13, 2007. Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt joined the
Apple board of directors in Oct. 2006. Very positive for the
long term. Steve Jobs is one of our Executives of the Year
in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1. Former CFO Fred
Anderson resigned from the Apple Board on 10.4.06, due to
the options backdating scandal. The internal investigation
at Apple revealed that Steve Jobs did NOT directly benefit
from any back-dated options, but that he "was aware that
favorable grant dates had been selected" according to
a company press release. The board at Apple is standing behind
Jobs, but the Los Angeles Times put a scathing article
on the scandal on the cover of its paper January 3, 2007.
More ink could follow, though most of the major press orgs
are barely mentioning the problem, focusing instead on the
sexy new Apple iPhone. The popularity of the iPod and the
dominance that Jobs is gaining with his alliances with Disney
and Google should keep Apple at the top of the technology
performers over the next few years at minimum. On the other
hand, headlines on the options backdating scandals could spook
investors into selling. The price is high, and the new iPhone
isn't going to be released until June. If there is any bad
news in the meantime, there may be a buying opportunity. (However,
Apple has done a smash-up job of luring consumers, investors
and reporters to focus on products and sales, which are mind-boggling,
instead of the SEC investigation.) Apple's licensing deal
to sell Universal Music is set to expire in May. Apple is
a company you're going to want to own - and everyone wishes
they'd had the prescience to buy in at a better price. On
1.9.07, Apple(R) announced that more than two billion songs,
50 million television episodes and over 1.3 million feature-length
films have been purchased and downloaded from the iTunes(R)
Store (www.itunes.com), making it the world's most popular
online music, TV and movie store. If you want in now, there
are a lot of great reasons to jump into the iStore phenomenon.
Jobs is a genius, and the world is his oyster.
|
|
Blockbuster
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
BBI
|
$3.61
|
$6.30
|
$10.65
$3.19
|
+74.5%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." At that time, BBI
was a very high-risk company in a competitive market, when/where
films may be downloaded instead of rented in the near future
(think iPod). Now, it appears as though BBI is going to make
its own run at the digital download market. BBI plans to enter
the digital download market by the end of 2007, according
to reports from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas,
January 2007. BBI also noted that they have an exclusive deal
with the Weinstein Brothers to distribute their content. CEO
John Antioco purchased $1 million (value) shares on 11.21.06
at $4.66 each On Jan. 3, 2007, company reported that they
met their benchmark of having 2 million subscribers by year-end
2006: "We are pleased that we achieved our year-end goal of
2 million subscribers, an addition of more than 500,000 paying
subscribers since the end of the third quarter. We credit
our success to BLOCKBUSTER Total Access(TM), which gives our
online customers the option of returning their DVDs through
the mail or exchanging them at a participating BLOCKBUSTER(R)
store for free in-store movie rentals," said John Antioco
Blockbuster Chairman and CEO. "The strong consumer appeal
of Blockbuster Total Access has translated into significant
subscriber growth and was accomplished without any broadcast
media except in a handful of test markets." BBI has over 8,000
stores throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia and Australia.
BBI is selling Rhino Video Games chain to GameStop Corp.
(NYSE: GME). Strong marketing campaign in December helped
BBI achieve their goals of 2 million subscribers:Through Dec.
21, Netflix customers got free movie rentals at Blockbuster
stores in exchange for the Netflix mailing labels they normally
would throw away (one DVD rental per label).
|
|
Citigroup
|
No
|
C
|
$50.38
|
$54.67
|
$57.00
$43.83
|
+8.5%
|
|
Refer
to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details
on Citigroup's appeal. According to an Associated Press report
on 11.29.06, Citigroup will be one of the first banks operating
in China. Global Strategist Marc Miles says, "Citigroup
has bought a significant stake in one of the ailing banks.
They were willing to absorb huge existing debt in order to
get in. But when you look at the population and the growing
wealth, that looks like a good long term investment."
China is due to open its banking sector fully to foreign competition
by Dec. 11 under conditions set when it joined the World Trade
Organization in 2001. Rising interest rates and the current
M&A mania are positive for Citigroup. At long last, things
are starting to look favorable for the red umbrella. Purchased
AkBank on 1.09.07. Akbank currently has 675 branches and 1,617
ATMs and is a premier, full-service retail, commercial, corporate
and private bank in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion,
loans of $19.6 billion and a deposit base of $25.0 billion.
It is the third largest bank by assets and the most profitable
private banking institution in the country.
|
|
Disney
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$34.55
|
$34.89
$23.77
|
+37.7%
|
|
Announces
1Q earnings on 2.7.07. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for
the fourth quarter increased 89% to $0.36, compared to $0.19
in the prior-year period, reflecting growth at Studio Entertainment,
Parks and Resorts, and Media Networks. The Company generated
$4.8 billion in free cash flow during fiscal 2006 compared
to $2.4 billion in the prior year, reflecting an increase
of $1.8 billion in cash provided by operations and a decrease
of $0.5 billion in capital expenditures. Wow! Disney/Pixar/ABC,
distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation
film company meets the most successful family media company
meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds
like the happiest place on Earth to us. The largest individual
stockholder is Steve Jobs. During the year ended September
30, 2006, the Company repurchased 243 million shares for $6.9
billion, of which 96 million shares were purchased for $2.8
billion in the fourth quarter. As of September 30, 2006, the
Company had authorization in place to repurchase approximately
206 million additional shares. Pirates of the Caribbean
blockbusters equal film profits, DVD profits and renewed interest
in the theme parks! According to the annual report, CEO Bob
Iger received $22 million in compensation last year (not including
stock options). His pay included $2 million salary and a $15
million cash bonus. The company's annual shareholders meeting
will be March 8 at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
in New Orleans. In his keynote at the Consumer Electronics
Show, Bob Iger said, "Since the day Mickey dared to speak
in a `talkie,' Disney has boldly taken its content to the
cutting edge. Wherever the path of unfolding technologies
and imaginative new platforms may lead, Disney will be there.
Year in and year out, we are proud to bring our creative content
to your innovative products." CEO Bob Iger was one of our
Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4,
iss. 1.
|
|
eBay
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$29.75
|
$31.65
|
$47.86
$22.83
|
+6%
|
|
See
the articles, "Wow Dow," in vol. 3, iss. 11 and,
"eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in
volume 3, issue 9. Skype's new products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones
in particular and associated hardware) will likely start adding
a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line by the first quarter
of 2007, since Skype is growing faster than mySpace in terms
of registered users. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt,
"We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies
such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will
be of great value to all involved." eBay bought StubHub Inc.
for $310 million on 1.12.07. StubHub said it generated about
$100 million in sales in 2006 on $400 million gross ticket
sales. CEO Meg Whitman was one of our Executives of the Year
in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.
|
|
GAP
|
No
|
GPS
|
$20.30
|
$19.04
|
$37.02
$15.91
|
-6%
|
|
See
the article, "Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign," from
vol. 1, iss. 12. We were anticipating that more people would
catch the (Product) Red bug this holiday season, but the red
states opted for electronics, cheap duds (JC Penney and Walmart)
and those beautiful, anorexic waifs in Victoria's Secret's
skimpy clothing. The Gap experienced a 4% decline in sales
(from last December), and reduced expectations for their full
year as a result. Poor performance resulted in the resignation
of the President and CEO Paul Pressler, Gap Inc., and a number
of division heads at Gap and Old Navy. Why do we do we think
that is a good thing? Because Pressler's strategy of "focus"
group designers runs against everything we know about fashion.
By the time the masses get it, it's outdated. With the Fisher
family back in charge and their legacy of leading designing
trends, there is reason to be optimistic that the company
will go back to its roots and come out with a plan that excites
the world again. Additionally, in the "show me your friends
and I'll tell you who you are" category, the friends
surrounding Gap these days are mighty, powerful and successful.
You've got Goldman Sachs advising them on the turnaround strategy.
GAP is one of an elite group of companies that are attached
to PRODUCT (RED), the pet project of Bono and Bobby Shriver,
alongside Apple, American Express, Motorola, Emporio Armani
and more. Between now and the annual report, scheduled to
be released at the end of March, 2007, the share price should
be turbulent. The company is under pressure to report something
good on the leadership and designer front, to offset the poor
performance of 2006. Also, bear in mind that there have been
$123 million in insider sales since August 2006, mostly by
members of the founding Fisher family. ( All of the sellers
still hold tens of millions of shares.) The fast, definitive
action, the ongoing commitment to Bono and Bobby Shriver's
PRODUCT (RED) and having Goldman Sachs in their corner really
sets the stage for some promising surprises for this legacy
clothing retailer. That is if the team comes up with a winning
leader.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$44.85
|
$50.00
$23.02
|
+32%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries,
in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way
to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
$81.13
(12.30.06)
|
$86.57
|
$100.20
$75.58
|
543%
|
|
Purchased
Tanox on 1.16.07. Received 8 FDA approvals in 2006. The FDA
approved the use of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage
breast cancer on 11.17.06. DNA is a Great Blue Chip Hold for
your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in DNA-based
cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need
for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply to
the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this popular
#2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs. Cancer
drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has appx.
$8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone is expected
to bring in $2 billion in annual sales by 2007. Genentech
reported record annual earnings results on 1.10.07: U.S. product
sales of $7,169 million, a 39% increase over sales of $5,162
million in 2005 and GAAP net income of $2.113 billion, a 65%
increase over net income of $1.279 billion in 2005. Tarceva
is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $402 million
in 2006.
|
|
Google
(Green)
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$495.84
|
$513.00
$273.35
|
483%
|
|
Owns
YouTube.com, one of the most popular sites on the web. Google
joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for
your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price. Announced
3Q 2006 earnings on Thursday, October 19, 2006 at 1:30 p.m.
PT. Google reported revenues of $2.69 billion for the quarter
ended September 30, 2006, an increase of 70% compared to the
third quarter of 2005 and an increase of 10% compared to the
second quarter of 2006. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt,
"We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies
such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will
be of great value to all involved." On a worldwide basis,
Google employed 9,378 full-time employees as of September
30, 2006, up from 7,942 full time employees as of June 30,
2006. As of September 30, 2006, cash, cash equivalents, and
marketable securities were $10.4 billion. Filed annual report
in 2006 on March 16 and on March 30 the year prior. YouTube
is working hard with studios and music publishers to get licenses
in place, however, with the Universal Music Group suing MySpace,
there is pressure to get this done very quickly. We'll keep
you posted. There is nothing wrong with taking profits in
your trading portfolio, because, at this price, investors
get very skittish over night when expectations are adjusted
downward. $48 million sold so far by insiders in Dec. 2006
and Jan. 2007; $14 million by Eric Schmidt. Dr. Eric Schmidt
was one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article
in vol. 4, iss. 1. Google announces 4Q earnings at 4:30
ET (1:30 PT) on Wed., January 31, 2007. You can go to
a live webcast at http://investor.google.com/webcast.
|
|
Intuit
|
No
|
INTU
|
$31.72
|
$31.12
|
$35.98
$22.93
|
Flat
|
|
According
to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant
partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive
Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved."
Intuit Inc. reported on 10.30.06 that the Securities and Exchange
Commission has closed its investigation into the software
maker's stock option accounting practices without taking any
punitive action. 11.17.06 earnings report: 1Q 2007 revenue
increased 19% over the year-ago quarter to $362.1 million.
Growth was primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks
software and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. Intuit
posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net
loss of $58.9 million versus a net loss of $45.8 million in
the first quarter of 2006. According to the company press
release, "Intuit typically posts a seasonal loss in its
first quarter when it has little revenue from its tax businesses."
2Q revenue last year was 144% higher than 1Q in 2005 and similar
results in 2004. $72 million in insider sales in 2006, mostly
by Scott Cook, Chairman of the Board, who still has 26 million
shares remaining. Intuit's TurboTax product is loved by the
media and by consumers, and gets the first spot on the search
word "taxes" on Google. According to Amazon.com,
Intuit has seven of the top 10 bestsellers for office and
business, including the top four bestsellers.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$12.88
|
$12.88
$3.35
|
+26%
|
|
Have
you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen
Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? Sales per factory
store increased approximately 16% and 12% over last year's
3rd quarter, according to a press release issued
by KKD on 12.11.06. Revenues were down to $117 million for
the 3Q of fiscal 2007, which ended 10.29.06, compared to revenues
of approximately $129 million for the third quarter a year
ago, largely due to a decrease in the number of factory stores.
According to Daryl Brewster, President and Chief Executive
Officer, "The Company has agreed to settle the class action
lawsuit and most of the shareholder derivative litigation.
Average unit volumes rose at Company-owned stores. Krispy
Kreme continued its international expansion while filling
several key management positions critical to achieving sustained
growth." KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines,
Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. If we love their product,
KKD's CEO has proven to be a turnaround specialist, and he's
done a great job over the past year.
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$35.30
(11.11)
|
$52.21
|
$48.89
$17.15
|
+47.9%
|
|
Read
"Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, iss.
10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price
its product and pick its customers accordingly. On 10.26.06,
the Company reported net sales of $407.9 million, which represents
an increase of over 10% from the second quarter level of $370.5
million. Net income was $91 million. During the 3rd
quarter, MEMC Electronics finalized its $5-$6 billion solar
wafer agreement with Suntech. As part of the agreement, the
company received a warrant to purchase up to a 4.9% equity
stake in Suntech. Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC's CEO, reports cash
and short-term investments of over $450 million. MEMC will
receive $2.5 billion to $3 billion in revenue from sales of
the wafers over the 10-year period from Taiwan's Gintech Energy
(solar). MEMC also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent
interest in Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel
of land of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located
within the Hsinchu Science Park. Buy rating and $54.00 price
target at Jefferies. You can listen to it at the company's
4Q conference call from Thursday, January 25, 2007 at
www.memc.com.
|
|
NetGear
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$27.93
|
$30.01
$16.64
|
+124%
|
|
Watch
Natalie
Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com
Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo
(from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the
Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06),
NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype
phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone
is available online for a price of $249.99. Skype currently
has over 133 million registered users, and the NetGear phone
is one of the first Skype Wifi phones. An October report from
Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households
will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband phone
service by 2010. Judges from the IT Industry and CRN readers
rated NETGEAR Best in Service and Support among crowded networking
category that included companies worldwide with both voice
and data legacies in Dec. 2005. According to CEO Patrick Lo,
NetGear has 58 new products. Christine M. Gorjanc has been
awarded the position of Chief Accounting Officer. $151.1 million
in cash and short-term investments as of 10.26.06.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Dividends
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
NWS
|
$15.88
|
$22.90
|
$23.84
$14.97
|
44%
|
|
Owns
Owns Fox, MySpace and DirecTv. Read my vol. 3, iss. 9 article,
"eBay's
Skype
Outpaces News Corp's MySpace."
MySpace is now a Top 10 Global Internet Brand with over 153
million registered users, making it the 2nd fastest growing
Internet site in the world. (eBay's Skype is #1!) American
Idol is one of the most popular television shows of all-time,
with revenue coming in even from text messaging! The finale
with Taylor Hicks was the third most-watched event of `06
after the Super Bowl and Academy Awards. Rupert Murdoch has
some talented, innovative leaders under his aegis, and they
are hitting home profits. News Corp. has completed $2.5 billion
of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated last June, and
increased the stock buyback program to $6.0 billion. "This
$3.0 billion step up clearly reinforces our view that repurchases
of News Corporation shares are among the best uses of our
cash in today's environment," according to Rupert. According
to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant
partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive
Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved."
DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical
hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss
Sunshine and Napoleon Dynamite. Universal Music
Group is suing Myspace, but previous hard stances against
AOL, Yahoo and YouTube were settled once the companies agreed
to pay royalties for the songs. MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe
and President Tom Anderson were our Executives of the Year
in 2006. Read the article in vol. 3, iss. 1.
|
|
Opsware
See issue
44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$7.71
|
$9.90
$5.03
|
+343%
|
|
Has $91
million in cash on hand. Named to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious
Technology Fast 50 Program for Silicon Valley on 10.26.06.
It was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's
products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate
on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's
Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's
share price. The company raised its full year revenue expectation
to $102 million. "We reached the key milestone of non-GAAP
profitability," said Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of Opsware
Inc. "During Q2 we also shipped the Opsware System 6 suite,
the most important release in our company's history." CFO
Sharlene Abrams resigned on 7.12.06. New CFO is David F. Conte.
Ms. Abrams is under SEC investigation for handling of options
at her prior company, Mercury Interactive. Opsware automates
the complete IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically
discover, provision, patch, configure, secure, change, scale,
audit, recover, consolidate, migrate, and reallocate servers,
network devices and applications. Over 350 of the world's
largest companies, outsourcers and government agencies use
Opsware to deliver this new, automated model of IT. Opsware
was Company of the Year in 2004. Read the article in vol.
1, iss. 44.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$36.86
|
$33.18
|
$43.17
$22.04
|
-10%
|
|
3Q
earnings on Nov. 6th: reported total revenues of
$74 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006,
an increase of $40 million (or 118%) compared to revenues
of $34 million for the same period last year. Net loss was
$21.3 million. Genetic based "cancer pill." Partner
of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva
as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer.
Industry sales data has placed the cancer drug market's value
at more than $20 billion annually and it is growing fast.
According to Jan. 10 annual report by Genentech (OSIP's partner
on Tarceva), Tarceva is rocketing up the sales charts, with
sales of $402 million in 2006. Announced annual earnings last
year on 3.16.06.
|
|
Sirius
$6.3
Bil Market Cap
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SIRI
|
$3.85
|
$3.74
|
$6.45
$3.50
|
-3%
|
|
Announced
3Q on Nov. 8, 2006. Total revenue increased 150% year- over-year
to $167.1 million for third quarter 2006, reflecting nearly
three million new subscribers added in the last twelve months.
SIRIUS ended the third quarter with 5,119,308 subscribers.
For the fourth consecutive quarter, SIRIUS led the satellite
radio industry in net subscriber additions, capturing a record
61% of total satellite radio net additions in the third quarter.
SIRIUS reported a net loss of ($162.9) million, or ($0.12)
per share, for the third quarter of 2006 compared with a net
loss of ($180.4) million last year. The Stiletto handheld
(iPod-like SR device) is here, but it's not taking market
share from other handheld devices yet. XM radio is installed
in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash
flow issues. Has had negative impact on XM. Mercedes just
agreed to make SIRI standard on 2/3rds of 2007 cars. SIRI
has deals with Ford, MBZ, Jeep, Dodge, BMW, VW, Audi and Rolls-Royce.
SIRI paid out 22,058,824 million shares of common stock, valued
at approximately $82.9 million, on 1.9.07 to Howard Stern
and affiliates for beating subscriber growth projections by
2 million. Sirius ended 2006 with approximately 6,024,000
subscribers. Originally XM projected 9 million subscribers
by year's end, but the company ended the year with only 7.625
million subscribers, adding only 1.695 million subscribers
in 2006, compared to SIRI's record 2.7 million subscriber
additions. SIRI Cash at the end of the 3Q: $317,876 million.
CEO Mel Karmazin is now focused on "achieving positive
free cash flow." With the banner growth year of 2006
and the stars Karmazin has in his network, achieving free
cash flow isn't a given, but it is appropriate timing in the
growth cycle of this emerging industry. It's goint to be hard
to attract investors while Sirius continues to lose money,
no matter how many people subscribe to the service.
|
|
Sohu
(Chinese Co. ADR)
918.7
Mil Market Cap
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$26.03
|
$29.43
$14.25
|
+50%
|
|
See NataliePace.com
ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature
articles on Sohu. Financial Times ranked Sohu in the
Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6 days after
our first feature article). Sohu was selected as the official
sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing
2008 Olympic Games. See Dr.
Charles Zhang in an exclusive
interview on the Forbes.com Video Network, and, separately,
in our January 2007 ezine. Could be some bumps in the road
between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately
be worth it. Dr. Charles Zhang is one of our CEOs of 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1.
|
|
SunTech
Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
|
$36.22
|
$45.95
$19.00
|
+40%
|
|
See vol.
4, iss. 1 for our Company of the Year article, which names
SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol. 3,
issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for our article on solar energy.
Suntech is inspiring a slew of Chinese solar company IPOs,
with LDK Solar, Yingli Solar, Trin Solar and Linyang solar
planning to launch a US IPO in the near future, according
to Reuters (10.02.06). Beat analysts' expectations of $151.61
million in revenues. 3Q earnings (11.20.06):
Third quarter total net revenue was up 27.2% sequentially
and 187.8% year-over-year to $163.0 million. Net income for
the same quarter of $28.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted American
Depository Share (ADS). STP and the University of New South
Wales signed a new $1.2 million collaborative research agreement
through 2007 with a $3 million extension through 2010. Suntech
will supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW
to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection
Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world's largest
solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider
of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy
a lot of buzz around that over the next 18 months. ''I am
very pleased that our team has yet again proven that Suntech
is the industry leader in combining world class R&D advancements
with high quality products while maintaining the lowest cost
per watt solution, bringing us one large step closer to being
the first solar manufacturer to reach grid parity,'' CEO Shi
said, commenting on the development of "semiconductor
finger technology." Dr. Shi is one of our Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.
|
|
T. Rowe
Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See vol.
2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$32.16
|
$33.14
$12.00
|
+55%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern
EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify,
as well as to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries.
Avoid the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic
growth, like Germany and France. International investing in
the right sectors and countries pays off!
|
|
Time-Warner
(owns
AOL)
|
No
|
TWX
|
$16.76
|
$21.82
|
$23.15
$15.70
|
+30%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace"
for a report card that features Time-Warner. AOL and Time-Warner
have finally figured out how to work together, and Chairman
& CEO Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl
Icahn. After a series of blunders, could it be TWX's time
to shine? AOL is now an advertising-supported business. Reports
4Q and full year on Jan. 31, 2007, before the market opens.
Reported 3Q results on 11.1.06: Revenues rose 7% over the
same period in 2005 to $10.9 billion, led by growth at the
Cable and Networks segments. As of September 30, 2006, Net
Debt totaled $32.2 billion, up $16.1 billion from $16.1 billion
at the end of 2005, reflecting, among other items, the closing
of the Adelphia and Comcast transactions as well as the Company's
share repurchase program. $4 billion in free cash flow. From
the inception of its stock repurchase program through October
31, 2006, the Company has repurchased approximately 770 million
shares of common stock for approximately $13.4 billion. At
existing price levels, the Company expects that it will purchase
at least $15 billion of its common stock by the end of 2006
and the remainder of its $20 billion program in 2007. At AOL,
Revenues declined 3% ($58 million) to $2.0 billion, due to
a 13% decrease ($210 million) in Subscription revenues, offset
in part by a 46% increase ($151 million) in Advertising revenues.
Ron Grant was appointed President and COO of AOL LLC on November
21, 2006, by AOL's new Chairman and CEO Randy Falco. Grant
has held senior positions on both sides of the aisle - at
AOL and at Time-Warner, making him ideal for the job. Prior
to being appointed Chairman and CEO of AOL, Mr. Falco was
President and COO of the NBC Universal Television Group. Jonathan
Miller's departure was unexpected, but the transition seems
to be a smooth one. All internal communiqué awards
Miller kudos for setting AOL on the right track prior to his
departure, which is a huge leap forward compared to the internal
squabbling that characterized TWX/AOL at the time of the merger.
Wall Street approves and the stock prices have been up.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$4.67
on
1.12.07
|
$4.95
|
$10.30
$.35
|
+6%
|
|
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview
with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click
to hear Natalie
Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen
on the Forbes.com Video Network. Note:
U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold
exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen, Chairman
and CEO, was awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award in 2006
by Canadian Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star
Execs roundup." On Nov. 3, 2006, Rob McEwen, Chairman and
CEO, and his wife Cheryl McEwen were honored by Tiffany &
Co. with the 2006 Tiffany Mark Award. The Tiffany Mark Award
honors men and women who are making their "mark" professionally
and in their community through tireless efforts on behalf
of charities and organizations they care about deeply. The
McEwens are avid philanthropists, particularly in the field
of medicine.
|
|
Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
$17.20
|
$24.08
$14.97
|
+3%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy.
This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates
its holdings regularly, but falls and rises on the good or
bad news of alternative energy companies which it may not
even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year on bad
news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply, even
though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings
on 1.12.07: SunPower, OM Group, Ballard, Energy Conversion
Devices, SunTech, Ormat, Evergreen, Ormat and MEMC Electronic
Materials.
|
Sony (NYSE:
SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell
(NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the
Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains.
Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands
was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains. Agilent was removed
on 2.1.07 with flat performance. RELM Wireless was taken off with
3% gains on 2.1.07.
Recently
removed from the Hot Stocks List:
|
Agilent
(Green)
|
No
|
A
|
$32.69
|
$32.37
|
$39.54
$26.96
|
flat
|
|
The company's
fourth quarter Return On Invested Capital was 29% -- a new
high. 2006 net income of $3,307 billion, includes $1,816 billion
income gains from selling off their semiconductor business.
Agilent is still in restructuring mode. We're too impatient
to wait. This company was removed on 2.1.007.
|
|
Las Vegas
Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$89.48
(price
12.29.06)
$104.79
(1.26.07)
|
$106.90
$29.08
|
+139%
|
|
Read
"Company of the Year" article in vol. 4, iss 1 and
Viva Las Vegas! From vol. 2, iss. 7 for reasons why LVS was
added to the hot list in July 2005, and then taken off of
the Hot News list, effective 1.1.07. LVS has a high price
to earnings ratio (at 84.00), high debt (with a debt equity
ratio of 2.0) and the loosest insider selling (at $223 million
in the last six months). Too bad the slot machines at the
Sands and Venetian aren't cashing out $223 million for Las
Vegas and Macao casino visitors, instead of lining the pockets
of Las Vegas Sands executive insiders. Insider selling of
this magnitude, right at the time when the company is under
pressure to finalize the terms of their proposed building
of "Asia's Las Vegas" in Macao smells fishier than the Hong
Kong harbor. This is further exacerbated by the many reports
I've received from Chinese economists and investors who confirm
that the government officials have intentionally slowed the
pace of foreign companies building in China and Chinese provinces,
like Hong Kong and Macao. A key disclosure in Las Vegas Sands'
November 9, 2006 earnings report convinced us to take Las
Vegas Sands off of the Hot News list this month as well. According
to the quarterly earnings report, "The Company does not have
all the necessary Macao government approvals that are needed
in order to develop the Cotai Strip developments." 139% gains
since we first featured the company in July of 2005 works
great for us, even if the stock closed at $103.74 on 1.12.07.
Incidentally, for those willing to risk for more upside, Dr.
Marc Miles, global strategist, advises that: "The Chinese
government gets significant revenues from those gambling ventures.
It also sees them as a way for the new middle class to spend
their money internally." Even so, that doesn't mean the
permits continue to go to LVS, especially since the legacy
casino operator in Macao prior to the entry of U.S. capital,
was an Asian, and he had a monopoly there.
|
|
RELM
wireless
10.70
P/E
Micro
Cap
88.73
Million
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
RWC
|
$7.35
$6.00
on 12.30.06
|
$6.19
|
$11.70
$1.90
|
+3%
|
|
Added
to the Russell Microcap Index on 6.30.06. According to Feltl
& Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM has just 1% share of
a domestic market worth $1.9 billion (and the global market
is eight times larger), so there is plenty of room for growth.
In addition to providing communications for national security
needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at hazardous
substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines and chemical
plants. The United States Postal Service Extended its Exclusive
Contract with RELM Wireless on 7.13.2006. RELM announced 3Q
earnings on 11.2.06. Sales increased approximately 20.7% to
$9.2 million from $7.6 million for the same quarter last year.
Net income for the third quarter was $1.1 million, or $0.08
per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.2 million,
or $0.09 per diluted share, for the same quarter last year.
|
|
Rio Tinto
(ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See issue
48
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$219.45
(price
1.26.07: $211.66)
|
$253.33
$114.90
|
+145%
|
|
Building
permits are down worldwide, and there are reports that China
is pulling back on its rapid urban expansion. Additionally,
there are currency considerations in Australia, where Rio
Tinto does a great deal of its business. Rio Tinto has definitely
been the star of the metals sector since we first featured
the company, back in August of 2004, but the insatiable demand
for copper and metals was tied to the low interest rates in
the US (fueling construction) and the pro-expansion policies
in China. With both of those reversing, it seems like the
high and the thrill may be nearing their peaks. Even with
the year-end Santa Rally going and the Dow at an all-time
high, on November 10, 2006, copper futures plunged to a 4
ý month low. "It's not unusual to see copper supplies increase
on a seasonal basis, but the steady nature of the increases
of 2,000 to 3,000 tons over the last few weeks has eroded
support in the market," said Dan Vaught, a futures analyst
at AG Edwards. Rio Tinto PLC, the world's second-largest miner,
said on 10.18.06 that third-quarter refined copper production
fell 15 percent after the company shut down a smelter at a
mine in Utah.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Great
Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching
and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better price),
if you believe the news on future potential. There are never any
guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult
your certified financial planner before making any changes to your
investment strategy.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
1.26.07
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Advanced
Micro Devices
|
No
|
AMD
|
$16.22
|
$16.22
|
$42.70
$12.10
|
--
|
|
On January
11, 2007, Advanced Micro Devices warned that, "The fourth
quarter gross margin and operating
income were impacted by significantly lower microprocessor
average selling prices, which largely
offset a significant increase in unit sales." Investors
punished the company, pushing the price near
its 52-week low. For anyone who has been waiting for an opportunity
to buy Advanced Micro Devices,
it has been rare to find the stock trading under $20 for any
length of time for the past two years. But
is it a buy? Or is the pricing pressure of competing with
Intel simply too much for sustained profits? Some
analysts are expecting new chips for PCs and servers to help
AMD get back on track. 4Q
earnings will be announced on January 23, 2007, and it's hard
to imagine that investors will be more excited hearing about
the fall-off in earnings at that time. Full year earnings
should be released at the end of February. Again, with 2006
expected to come in less than the year prior, it's hard to
make a case for a buy. Advanced Micro Devices has proven themselves
to make and distribute great chips, but the next few months
is going to be more about getting kicked around, until there
is good news on the product and earnings front. The next product
release is the Barcelona chip, expected mid-year.
|
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$22.73
|
$27.30
|
$41.66
$17.49
|
+20%
|
|
Gold
dropped to $573/$580 range on 9.15.06 causing losses for most
gold mining stocks. Any troubles in the already tight metals
market, or investor panic over inflation and terrorism could
send gold prices even higher than they currently are (which
has been happening all year). This has traditionally been
one of the best performing gold companies. The Glamis M&A
went through on 11.13.06. Gold was back up to $635 on 11.29.06
and traded for $617 on 12.17.06. As you can see from the 52-week
high, it's not an unreasonable price.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.34
|
$30.60
|
$31.39
$21.45
|
+8%
|
|
World's
largest software company. $31 billion in cash. Launched Zune
on Nov. 14, 2006 to compete with iPod, but iPod sales are
at No. 1 & 2 slots on Amazon's bestsellers list with a
4 star rating (out of 5 possible), whereas Zune weighs in
at 55, with an average customer review of 3 stars. Great blue
chip for your long term portfolio. Trading at a 52-week high,
so waiting for a better buy-in opportunity might yield better
returns.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List:
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Toll Brothers
Cooling
Off Stocks (that may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: We may look to add some of these companies to our Hot News
list again, if the price point should become attractive and if the
outlook for the company improves. The companies listed in bold have
recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently
poised for a continued decline in value. Investors who have them
in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether
it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position
and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their
long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified
financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again,
note, that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
1.26.07
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Airlines
|
No
|
AMR
|
$24.05
$29.06
(11.13)
|
$36.53
|
$38.10
$18.24
|
+52%
|
|
Don't
buy into the hype that airlines are "doing better."
Read the article, "$72 Oil Will Sink Airlines,"
in vol. 3, issue 7. American Airlines' financial obligations
surpass $17 billion, including $5.4 billion owed to pension
plans and other post retirement benefits (which is close to
AMR's market value). American Airlines has such a strong brand,
and so few investors are aware of the depth of their debt,
that AMR tends to run up on any good news in the sector. It's
not a slam-dunk short or put, until the unions renegotiate
their contracts (in 2008?) because the Feds are not going
to let every legacy airline in the U.S. go down. Competition
from low-cost carriers and competitors that have gained cost
advantages through the bankruptcy reorganization process remains
a significant challenge.
|
|
Fannie
Mae
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
|
$55.69
|
$62.37
$45.93
|
-8%
|
|
Spending
$1 billion on accounting fees related to the accounting scandal.
Fannie Mae also said it would miss a regulatory deadline Wednesday
for filing its financial report for the third quarter of 2006.
The company hasn't filed an earnings statement since late
2004, and the NYSE has given FNM a deadline of 3.15.07 to
file the 2005 annual report. If it fails to file the report,
the company could be delisted. And yet investors are still
in to the tune of $58.44 billionÉ. Are you? Better check your
mutual funds. According to the AP, "Maintaining strong
asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie Mae,
given the recent weakening of housing values from the very
strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard
and Poor's has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae.
|
|
General
Motors
|
Yes
|
GM
|
$32.35
$34.67
(11.13)
|
$32.93
|
$37.34
$18.33
|
Flat
|
|
See the
article "Faded
Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. According to
Standard and Poor's Report on Pension Plans (6.06), GM owes
-$50 billion in pensions and other post employment benefits
(OPEB). General Motors' market capitalization is $19.85 billion,
and last year the company lost over $10.95 billion. With a
debt equity ratio of 3.85, most investors are probably unaware
of the fact that GM has financial obligations that exceed
the value of the corporation by over 4 times. For more information,
please read the "Wow Dow! Or NASDAQ Now?" article,
in vol. 3, iss. 11.
|
|
KB Home
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$50.98
|
$81.99
$37.89
|
-13.6%
|
|
Chairman
and CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006, after
SEC investigation of backdating options. He'll repay $13 million
to the company, however, his retirement package has not been
negotiated, meaning that his golden parachute could far exceed
the $13 million. Additionally, Karatz cashed out over $100
million in stock over the last two years. KBH missed filing
4Q report on time, due to SEC investigation into stock options.
KBH will have to restate results for fiscal 2005, as well
as the first two quarters of 2006, as a result of the incorrectly
reported stock option grants. Moody's Investor Service has
placed KBH on review status for a possible downgrade. The
concerns are: getting the 4Q earnings filed before 12.31.06
(didn't happen) and maintaining liquidity in the face of a
weak housing market and being forced to repay debt obligations.
KBH's debt/equity ratio is 1.20. Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In
May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout
should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates,
people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. President
and CEO Jeff Mezger has issued two press releases in January
2007, one talking about Martha Stewart homes in Florida and
the other about promotions within the company. No update on
when the earnings reports will be filed, or how the delay
may or may not annoy bondholders.
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$31.06
|
$23.98
|
$32.60
$15.11
|
-22.7%
|
|
The FDA
issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on
10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took
a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q Ô05 to reflect the recall.
LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing
rapidly, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested
tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not
over. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down
BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases,
among other violations. Lawsuits have been filed by some
plaintiffs who unknowingly received products from Biomedical
Tissue services and the impact of those lawsuits is still
largely unknown. LifeCell has set up a testing program
for anyone who received the BTS donor tissue. LifeCell has
been named in "several" lawsuits related to this
matter, according to the earnings report filed on 10.26.2006.
"There can be no assurance that the level of insurance
maintained will be sufficient to cover the claims or that
the all of the claims will be covered by the terms of any
insurance." There has been at least $15.5 million in
insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months.
LifeCell has a great product in high demand, but the potential
fallout of the unscreened human tissue could be more than
most small capitalization companies can take. According to
preliminary year-end results, issued on Jan. 8, 2007, Preliminary
product revenues for full-year 2006 were $140.5 million, up
51% compared to $93.3 million in 2005. Last year's annual
report was released on March 8, 2006. .
|
|
Toll
Brothers
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$32.43
|
$46.39
$22.22
|
-14%
|
|
4Q
earnings on 12.5.06: Net income was $173.8 million, or $1.07
per share, compared with $310.3 million, or $1.84 per share,
last year. According to the earnings press release, "A
higher-than-expected number of buyers canceled their orders
in the latest quarter, and the company incurred costs from
walking away from some land it had optioned, or acquired a
right to buy." According to analysts, builders are slashing
prices to attract buyers. That is different than "stabilization"
of the real estate market, as it weighs on profit margins.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the median
price for a home sold dropped by 3.5 percent from a year ago,
the largest year-over-year drop on record. The number of contracts
signed in Florida and the Carolinas fell by 78%. Full year
earnings are projected to be in a range of $260 million
to $340 million, or $1.58 to $2.08 per share. In May 2005,
we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue,
with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing
out of contracts and rising inventory. Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. Insider
Bruce Toll sold another $41 million in the last quarter of
2006.
|
The following
companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06.
Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). (The cooling off
list anticipates that a company will lose share price value.)
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
are a media and information center. This article is intended to
educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant
its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as
of the date of this publication and are subject to change without
notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities,
financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors.
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NataliePace.com Calendar:
Conferences
(featuring billionaires, royalty and statesmen), award shows (Babel
or The Departed?) and online chats. Stay plugged in!
Visit our calendar section often.
See
below for just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you.
Wednesday,
January 31st, 2007
4:30PM
ET (Google announces Earnings!)
Google
will hold its quarterly conference call to discuss fourth quarter
2006 financial results on Wednesday, January 31, 2007 at 1:30 p.m.
Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time). Click to access the web cast.
Thursday,
February 1st, 2007
Millionaire
Mind Intensive: Los Angeles, CA
Peak Potentials
Training is one of the fastest growing business & personal success
training companies in N. America.Their mission is to educate and
inspire people to live in their Higher Self based in Courage, Purpose
and Joy, vs Fear, Need and Obligation.

Saturday,
February 3rd, 2007
The
Dept. of Peace Conference, Washington, D.C.
Join Marianne
Williamson, Deepak Chopra, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Reverend
Michael Bernard Beckwith and more as they rally the peace corps
to establish a new department of peace in DC!
Monday,
April 23rd, 2007
Global
Economic Conference, Beverly Hills, CA
The Milken
Institute brings together VIPs, Nobel Laureates and executives for
an intensive 3-day learning and networking experience. Policy issues
and solutions in business, government, philanthropy, journalism
and academics are debated.
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VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners. GOAL:
To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news, information
and education, presented in an entertaining format, across all
media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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