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Vol.4 Issue 2 February 1st, 2007
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Month:
"When you have a product that is 10% better than the competition, that will affect the user base and you will become 10 times more popular than the other one."


Dr. Charles Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Sohu.com.
Copyright 2006, The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc.
Reprinted with permission .


Apple¨ Chips. The Perfect Party Mix for 2007?

by Natalie Pace.

Includes a Semiconductor Stock Report Card.

Click here to review the Microchip Stock Report Card, where we line up the numbers of AMD and Intel, alongside a few other companies.

The Internet has arrived and changed the world we live in. You don't get your CDs from Tower anymore, you buy individual songs from Apple. NetGear, ABC-TV and other forward-thing companies have put your favorite television shows on your computer and your iPod (and soon enough, your cell phone), where you can watch your films, videos and Lost anywhere in the world anytime.

Hmmm. From that kid who plays "Fur Elise" on a rickety old piano to Bush Bloopers, there are now more people watching their computers than their flat screens - by a lot! The top three brands - Yahoo!, Google and MSN -- have over 300 million unique visitors between the three of them each month, which is equal to the population of the U.S.! Apple® announced on January 9, 2007 that more than two billion songs, 50 million television episodes and over 1.3 million feature-length films have been purchased and downloaded from the iTunes® Store (www.itunes.com), making it the world's most popular online music, TV and movie store.

Top 10 Online Brands

Brand

Unique Audience (000)

Web Page Views (000)

Time Per Person (hh:mm:ss)

Yahoo!

110,687

32,068,624

3:02:36

Google

108,232

16,747,482

1:02:03

Microsoft

98,625

1,310,053

0:44:24

MSN/Windows Live

98,203

13,888,641

1:46:41

AOL

80,807

7,504,343

5:06:12

eBay

66,193

14,813,843

1:37:45

Fox Interactive Media

61,450

27,919,358

1:44:57

Amazon

50,550

2,664,612

0:31:13

Real Network

43,626

326,626

0:40:37

Apple

43,280

349,572

1:21:50

Source: Nielsen//NetRatings
US, Home and Work
Month of December 2006

And yes, we have Apple, NetGear and Disney (the owner of ABC-TV and Pixar) on our Hot News List (see the article in this ezine), but as you watch your favorite show on your computer, don't forget the chips! Media-rich sites like YouTube, MySpace and more require more memory and faster, better machines, at home and in the office. And the rush to buy new machines means another wave of demand to buy more chips from the beaten-down semiconductor sector - including Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. However, jumping into the current price war between AMD and Intel could leave you bruised and bloodied, so don't rush into buy without reading on.

Anyone with a teenager knows that Internet video is all the rage and that the old computer can't carry the weight of the extra broadband and storage capacity that is needed, but did you know that positive hiring trends are highly correlated with IT spending as well? According to a recent Manpower survey, the environment is ripe for more hiring and more spending on Internet technology. Tobias Levkovich, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, believes that companies which will benefit from the trend include: networking equipment suppliers Cisco Systems and JDS Uniphase, Internet portals/search engines like Google (through YouTube), Myspace and Yahoo, and server and storage equipment producers such as IBM, Sun Microsystems and EMC, to name a few, as well as content enablers such as Comcast and AT&T and content providers like Time Warner, Disney and News Corp.

Google, Time Warner, Disney and News Corp (owners of MySpace) are all on our Hot News list. Yahoo, an underperformer in the past, may be ready to break out of their stalling pattern, which is something we'll examine and report on in greater detail next month.

Media-rich sites rely upon 2007 hardware, software, chips and memory, and AMD was such an outstanding performer from 2004 through 2006, that it's easy to want to bet on this underdog winning again. However, now that Intel is fighting back with great products at lower prices, AMD is on the ropes. No one is predicting a definitive knockout of AMD by Intel, but does AMD have a plan to win back profits before cash flow becomes an issue? Can AMD increase operating margins from 40% to 50% with a "maniacal" approach to cost cutting and by forcing the courts to make Intel play more fair? With $1.5 billion cash on hand, there is certainly no cash crunch, but AMD's earnings surprise for the fourth quarter was one of the hardest hits Wall Street has seen all year, and the story of how AMD is going to fight off Intel in round two needs to be better than losing a few pounds (cost cutting) and complaining to the referee.

Battle to the Bottom: Intel Vs. Advanced Micro Devices
On January 11, 2007, Advanced Micro Devices warned that, "The fourth quarter gross margin and operating income were impacted by significantly lower microprocessor average selling prices, which largely offset a significant increase in unit sales." In short, Intel slashed prices, forcing AMD to do the same, which made AMD miss earnings big time. Analysts were expecting AMD to earn, on average, 10 cents per share on $1.74 billion in revenue for the quarter, according to a survey by Thomson Financial. The company reported a net loss of $574 million, or $1.08 per share, for the quarter that ended Dec. 31. (The loss isn't as bad as it appears because it included the $5.4 billion acquisition of graphics chipmaker ATI Technologies Inc.)

The selling spree from the warning shaved 10% off of the AMD share price in one day. On January 23, 2007, when the numbers became official, investors punished the company again, driving the share price down to prices not seen since September of 2004, when AMD was our featured company, at a price of $11.96. After trading as high as $42.70 in 2006, AMD stock closed at $16.03 on Wednesday, January 24, 2007. Yes, it's hard to imagine worse news, but the pricing war with Intel is expected to continue to eviscerate their operating margins, especially in the first two quarters of 2007. Still I, like many analysts listening in on the earnings call, were hopeful of hearing a battle plan to rally behind. AMD is a company that has produced surprisingly great products - in the past, and who would have thought there would ever be the opportunity to buy it again at $16?

Ed's Note: To read the Sept. 2004, article, "Chip Makers. Ante up and cash in," go to vol. 1, iss. 52, or click on the highlighted words.

On the January 23, 2007 earnings call, AMD executives were bullish that the introduction of Barcelona server chips in the middle of the year will definitively establish AMD as the performance leader. A "maniacal focus" on cost cutting was another mantra, as was the legal battle against Intel. AMD Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Hector de J. Ruiz, Ph.D. 500 Green Power Challenge, which lists AMD as the that the company is "very confident that the outcome [of AMD's lawsuit with Intel] will be very positive for us." Analysts didn't seem convinced, however, and I, too, was left with nagging doubts about just how cost-cutting and lawsuits were a great game plan in a technology race.

Who wins in a price war? The customers, like Dell and Hewlett Packard, certainly do, but does the investor? Goldman Sach's analyst Jim Cavello noted that AMD's approach for getting new customers and creating value for investors "seems to be at odds" and frankly has not worked very well. "How bad does it have to get before the strategy changes?" Mr. Cavello asked. Dirk Meyer, the President and Chief Operating Officer, responded, saying, "We compete against a monopolist who has a dominant share. In the long term, the best return we can do for shareholders is to break that monopoly." I'm sure Michael Dell is jumping on his desk with joy, but is Warren Buffett?

Unfortunately, in the breakneck world of rapidly changing technology products, it is a maniacal focus on innovation that seems to work best. As Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Sohu.com in China says, "When you have a product that is 10% better than the competition, that will affect the user base and you will become 10 times more popular than the other one." That strategy, more than forcing Intel to say "Uncle" in the court room, is one that investors and customers could unite behind.

As a result, even though AMD has been a performance leader in the past, we will not be adding the company to our Hot News list. There is a lot riding on the Barcelona release at the middle of the year, and not much expectation that margins improve measurably at AMD prior to then. We'll check in on the war between AMD and Intel again in June. But in the meantime:

There are two things that matter most in technology - product and price - and Intel is beating AMD at both right now. In Silicon Valley, the war isn't won by suits in the court room. It's won by the geeks in the garage.

Click here to review the Microchip Stock Report Card, where we line up the numbers of AMD and Intel, alongside a few other companies.

Socially Conscious:
Currently, there are just a few pioneering corporations in the U.S. who are strongly committed to using green energy. Whole Foods Market, the World Bank Group, the Advanced Micro Devices Austin, TX Facilities and the Tower Companies all run on 100% green power usage (source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). Click for a list of the Fortune 500 Green Power Challenge, which lists AMD as the 14th most Green Company.

On a global scale, AMD has committed to reduce energy use by 30 percent, water use by 40 percent and greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by the end of 2007, normalized and relative to 2002 performance levels. In addition, AMD uses cogeneration facilities to supply nearly 100 percent of the energy required by Fab 30 and Fab 36 in Dresden, Germany achieving 20 percent higher efficiency than conventional systems. These commitments are also reflected in AMD's leadership in developing power-efficient, environmentally-conscious innovations such as Cool'n'Quiet™ technology. In 2005, Cool'n'Quiet technology received special ENERGY STAR® recognition from the EPA for the advancement of energy-efficient computer technology.


The Greatest Love Quotes of All Time!

Photo Credit: www.mazell.com. Film and Video Production. Advertising Photography. 562-866-7662

If you're in a bind and need something to write on your Valentine's Day card, these quotes might help! If you're stuck in a rut or alone this Valentine's Day, and you are wondering what this love business is really all about, these wise observations might point you in the right direction.

Don't miss our online surveys, where men and women reveal what they really want most from their lover on Valentine's Day. And please take the survey yourself, so that your own lover stands a chance of getting you exactly what you most desire.

Great Love Quotes

  1. A kiss is a lovely trick, designed by nature, to stop words when speech becomes superfluous. - Ingrid Bergman.
  2. It is wrong to think that love comes from long companionship and persevering courtship. Love is the offspring of spiritual affinity and unless that affinity is created in a moment, it will not be created for years or even generations. - Kahlil Gibran.
  3. Sometimes the heart sees what is invisible to the eye. - H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
  4. The best portion of a good man's life: his little, nameless, unremembered acts of kindness and love. - William Wordsworth.
  5. Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. - Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart.
  6. Love is composed of a single soul inhabiting two bodies. - Aristotle.
  7. Falling in love consists of uncorking the imagination and bottling the common sense. - Helen Rowland.
  8. Love does not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together in the same direction. - Antoine de Saint-Exupery.
  9. If you would be loved, love and be lovable. - Benjamin Franklin.
  10. We've got this gift of love, but love is like a precious plant. You can't just accept it and leave it in the cupboard or just think it's going to get on by itself. You've got to keep watering it. You've got to really look after it and nurture it. - John Lennon.
  11. The perfect relationship begins with you. Became a "soul mate" yourself, so that you can be a soul mate magnet. - Natalie Pace.
  12. In our willingness to give that which we seek, we keep the abundance of the universe circulating in our lives. - Deepak Chopra.
  13. With all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle. -- Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer, Stanford Commencement address, delivered on June 12, 2005.


What Poker Champs and Champion Investors Have In Common: Neither Gamble.

by Natalie Pace, Top Stock Picker, per TipsTraders.com.

Annie Duke didn't win the 2004 World Series of Poker because she's a great gambler. She won because she knows her profession and doesn't gamble at all. In fact, her book, Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed and Won Millions, isn't a sensational book about how cool gambling is if you're a girl. It's a course study - an educational prerequisite -- for ANYONE who cares to sit and win at a poker table.

This is America, however, and no one is going to deny you your right to dump yourself bold and naïve at a poker table any more than anyone is going to deny you your right to gamble on the stock market. Trouble is: professionals don't gamble, and if you are, guess who is more likely to win.

Unfortunately, what most Americans don't realize is that they probably have a seat at the stock table, whether they know it or not. Odds are your company retirement plan and/or your personal 401 (k) or IRA have holdings in mutual funds or publicly traded companies. So, it's not a game you can easily walk away from. In fact, there's almost no alternative to educating yourself, if you want to start winning gains.

Buy Annie Duke's book if you want to win at poker. Buy Peter Lynch's books if you want to learn investment tricks of a pro. Here's the interesting thing. They're both talking the same game.

  1. Bet On What You Know. Annie Duke is a meticulous observer who counts eye blinks before the game begins, so that she can assess when someone is lying. She knows the probability of any set of cards winning, and that "you should only play 25% of the hands you're dealt." Peter Lynch says, "If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock." It's better to invest in companies that you know and understand (and as a consumer, you know what products you like and don't like and why) than to blindly chase every "hot" company that gets reported on.

  2. Play the Odds. "A-2 offers nineteen combinations for making the best low" in Omaha Hi-Lo, according to Annie Duke, who cautions to avoid trap hands, like A-5, which can be beaten by a number of low combos. How do you play the winners on Wall Street? Avoid companies that owe more to their pension plans than they are worth. Companies with severely underfunded pension plans are more likely to enter bankruptcy, as we've seen with Delphi, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways and more. Exxon Mobil, General Motors and Ford owe billions to their pension plans, according to Standard and Poor's. Any company that was founded before 1980 and has a benefits-based retirement plan (rather than a 401 k), is likely to have an unhealthy fiscal exposure to benefit costs, especially if there are unions at the company.
  3. Check your mutual funds to be sure that you are not over-exposed to these and other Blue Chip companies that are suffering from "legacy" costs. (You'll see this term in a lot of news articles these days.) To review the Pensions Stock Report card, read the "Faded Blue Chips" article, from vol. 3, issue 8.

  4. Don't Chase Bad Hands. "Cards that look good to you because you've been card dead aren't right for playing," according to Annie. The odds of winning in poker and in life are quantifiable, and increase if you are willing to play hands with a high probability of winning and pass over hands that have a high probability of losing. Real Estate Investors, especially novices, should take great heed today.
  5. If you've been looking all year for a good real estate investment or even to buy your own home, and all you can afford is the run-down shack in the ghetto, don't bet on that shack getting sold higher in a few years to someone more foolish than you are. Houses with security bars on the window in Inglewood, California are going for half a million dollars today. Modest homes (hardly more than shacks) in Venice, California are selling for over a million. When the price of anything becomes higher than the customer base can afford, buyers dry up and excess stock begins accumulating. Stocks in 2000 weren't immune. Real Estate in 2007 may not fall sharp and fast, but rest assured that prices cannot rise at the same rate they did from 2000 to 2006.

  6. Predict the Future by Doing Your Research. Annie recommends paying attention to how fast or slow people play their hands. "It can help you predict what they're holding in future hands," according to Annie. So, who do you watch on Wall Street? Turns out certain trends are extremely predictable. For instance, during the Santa Rally of 2002, NataliePace.com reported that 2003, the year before a presidential election, was a year that had statistically significant odds of posting positive gains. ((2000-2002 were all losing years, and, after a very dismal October 2002 on Wall Street, many investors were starting to think that the Apocalypse had arrived.) 2003 was a great year for gains in stocks, and 2007 is poised to do the same.
  7. Average S&P 500 Returns in Pre-Election Years

    Years

    Open/Close Price

    Gains/Loss

    1991

    1.2.91 - 12.31.91

    326.45

    417.09

    +28%

    1995

    1.3.95 - 12.29.95

    459.11

    615.93

    +34%

    1999

    1.4.99 - 12.31.99

    1228.10

    1469.25

    +19.6

    2003

    1.2.2003 - 12.31.2003

    909.03

    1111.92

    +22%

    Average for pre-election year returns since 1991

     

    25.9%

    The Santa Rally is another fairly reliable trend. Over half of the gains in the stock market occur in the 4th quarter. Does that mean that you will win every hand if you learn how to read the future based on historical trends? No. Does it increase your chance of success? Yes.

    Additionally, if you get into a bind where you are invested, but feel blind (as the Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler, did when she made her first trade), you can commit to obtaining the facts that you help you to make a more informed decision, rather than taking a shot in the dark (which has a big chance of missing the target).

  8. Never play a bad hand. In Omaha Hi-Lo, a bad hand is 2-2-7-Q. "The hand literally has no potential," according to Annie. What "bad hands" are there in investing? Swamp land in Florida. Free money to help a diplomat/royal from Nigeria. Penny stocks that get pumped through spam email campaigns. Assume that any get rich quick scheme that comes from someone you don't know is swampland in Florida until proven otherwise. If anyone tells you that you've won something, but asks you for money before you receive the loot, hang up. If you get an email from your "bank" asking you for private information, DO NOT RESPOND by email or by entering sensitive information onto a web site. Call your bank's listed telephone number (NOT the number on the email) and speak to a representative. With regard to real estate, remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    For more information on money scams, read ÒWhat You Don't Know About Money Scams Could Kill You,Ó from vol. 3, issue 9 (September 2006).

  9. Don't Play With Cheaters. As Annie notes, "Generally the people who play dishonestly are the ones who have leaksÉ If you're trying to take edges like that, you likely have the kind of personality that is going to have other problems - a drug addiction, for example." There are signs that a company and CEO are bending (if not breaking) the rules. If the company is "based" out of the Bahamas, but has no real offices there. If the CEO is seen more often in the society pages than in the Board Room. If the product prices are dropping faster than the Titanic, but the balance sheet reflects a steady climb in sales. Click here for the Top 10 Signs the CEO is rolling in your dough. Investing in companies with products you don't like (think Altria, which is the Philip Morris tobacco company) or CEOs whom you don't trust is no different than doing business with someone with questionable morals. The same rationale that has them cheating on others will have them cheating on you. It's just a matter of time.

As in poker, there are many more things to learn about investing that will help you up your chances of winning. Before you sit at the poker table, you might start by reading Annie Duke's excellent book. She very generously reveals the strategies she used to become the 2004 Tournament of Champions winner. Before you start putting your money in the stock market, and remember chances are you that already have some money invested there, you would be smart to continue learning from professionals who have a record of posting consistent gains over time. This is very different from blind faith in the broker behind the counter, or the fever of hearing something on CNBC or the sure shot claims of the Spam or direct mail that you receive from "experts" who are touting HUGE GAINS.

It's a thrill to win money at either seat - poker or Wall Street - and it is assured that you will get that joy more often if you know what you are doing. No one can play your cards better than you can, provided you learn the rules and fundamentals of the game. .


A Surprising Fourth Quarter. Can the stock market do it again in 2007?

by Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.

The biggest news in the fourth quarter of 2006 was the change in power in Congress. Democrats won virtually every close race and established majorities in both the Senate and House. The gist of their message was they weren't Republicans, but they were vague on how they would change things. With the stock market's usual distaste for uncertainty, it went into a funk for a few days after the election. However, it didn't take long for investors to remember what political gridlock did for the economy and the financial markets in the 1990s. A week later, the stock market was higher than before the election.

Like a glider gently coming in for a landing, economic growth is moderating. The fourth quarter was the first time in three years that real GDP growth dropped below 3%, and leading indicators of the economy imply further slowing. However, corporate profits remain stubbornly strong, with earnings for the S&P 500 Index still up over 15% from year ago levels. The inflation rate dropped dramatically during the fourth quarter and is now around 1%. Even so, the Federal Reserve is still using the threat of inflation as an excuse not to lower short-term interest rates.

Before the election, there was speculation that more Democrats would negatively impact health care and oil stocks. On that, the pundits batted 50%. Excluding biotech, older health care companies did poorly after the election, but this wasn't new as they've been lousy investments all year. Oil stocks reacted to higher prices and ignored the change in Congress. During the fourth quarter, biotech, energy, and consumer spending stocks were the top performers while transportation and health care stocks brought up the rear. Smaller companies outperformed bigger ones, REITs kept going, and investors generally preferred value over growth. For reference, here's the stock market segment scorecard for the fourth quarter.

Symbol

9/29/06

12/29/06

% Change

Microcap

IWC

53.40

58.45

9.46%

Small Cap. Value

IJS

69.75

75.34

8.01%

Small Cap.

IJR

61.29

65.99

7.67%

REITs

VNQ

71.89

77.00

7.11%

MidCap Value

IJJ

74.00

79.24

7.08%

Small Cap. Growth

IJT

119.50

127.96

7.08%

Large Cap. Value

IVE

71.81

76.89

7.07%

MidCap

IJH

75.44

80.17

6.27%

Large Cap.

IVV

133.75

142.00

6.17%

MidCap Growth

IJK

75.39

79.71

5.73%

Large Cap. Growth

IVW

61.70

64.92

5.22%

Source: Thomson One Financial

In addition, here's the stock market index and industry group scorecard for the same period:

Symbol

9/29/06

12/29/06

% Change

Dow Industrials

INDU

11,679.07

12,463.15

6.71%

Nasdaq Composite

COMPQ

2,258.43

2,415.29

6.95%

S&P 500 Index

SPX

1,335.85

1,418.30

6.17%

Biotech

BTK

669.64

754.25

12.64%

Energy

SPENS

411.38

455.53

10.73%

Consumer Services

SPCCS

275.86

302.92

9.81%

Utilities

SPUT

172.33

186.60

8.28%

REITs

RMZ

1,010.20

1,090.63

7.96%

Financials

SPFN

465.83

495.31

6.33%

Commercial Services

SICSS

188.53

200.59

6.40%

Capital Goods

IXI

333.93

352.16

5.46%

Basic Industries

SPIN

306.29

322.63

5.34%

Technology

SPHTI

336.28

356.28

5.95%

Clean Energy

ECO

176.32

182.06

3.26%

Consumer Staples

SPCNS

260.75

268.41

2.94%

Transportation

TRAN

4,453.46

4,560.20

2.40%

Health Care

HCX

384.94

388.74

0.99%

Source: Thomson One Financial

In the fixed income market, bond investors ignored our last quarterly letter and yields rose slightly during the fourth quarter. In spite of a slowdown in economic growth and inflation, bond investors waited in vain for some signal that the Federal Reserve would bring short-term interest rates in line with the rest of the yield curve.

Current Yield

9/29/06

12/29/06

% Change

90 day Treasury Bills

4.89%

5.02%

2.7%

5 Year Treasury Bonds

4.59%

4.70%

2.4%

10 Year Treasury Bonds

4.64%

4.71%

1.5%

Source: Bloomberg LP

The yield curve remains inverted at the short end, and we still expect the next move in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to be down. Weakness in housing should allow economic growth to continue to moderate, and the inflation rate is also expected to be lower in 2007. We expect lower bond yields in 2007 and remain invested in the under 10-year segment of the market as the incremental risk of investing in longer maturities outweighs the incremental return. At present, yield spreads versus Government Agency bonds are highest at 4-6 years.

Source: Bloomberg LP

Overall, 2006 was a good year for investors. Interest rates ended the year with yields a bit higher than they were at the end of 2005, but bonds still produced a positive return. Although stocks produced an above-average return, this return about matched the underlying increase in earnings.

While some pundits expect returns to moderate in 2007, we're in the opposite camp. Valuations in the stock market have been rising since the summer. According to our model, stocks are still more than 16% undervalued relative to interest rates. As a result, we expect valuations to rise further in 2007. Although earnings growth will probably moderate, earnings are likely to remain strong enough to produce another double-digit return in stocks in 2007.

We're also excited about 2007 for another reason. There's now a light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to the constantly increasing demand for foreign oil. Electric cars with enough range, performance, and comfort to satisfy American drivers will begin hitting the market this year. Whether you worry about global warming or about the consequences of our dependence on foreign oil, this is good news. If you'd like more information, please see our article at NataliePace.com in the January 2007 online magazine.

Paul Woods is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Newbies Treat Wall Street Like a Casino.

A reprint of our January 10, 2007 online chat with money manager, Paul Woods, President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit institutions.

Natalie Pace: Paul, this is the pre-election year, which you say adds a "bounce" to your step. 2003 turned out to be a great year for returns, largely because it was preceded by the October 2002 low point, but this year, I'm sensing something that I didn't in 2003, which has me even more optimistic for 2007. I'm starting to hear lots of people talking stocks, now that the real estate market is rolling overÉ Your thoughts on this? Do you think that the current declining market of real estate and the mediocre market of bonds will drive people over to stocks in droves?

Paul Woods: In the last few years, money that might have gone into stocks has gone into real estate instead. With real estate rolling over and bond yields low, I think stocks now look better in comparison. Money will probably go into stocks by default.

And then you have newbies rushing over to the stock market and the market going higher, which adds a level of exuberance to the equation, right? (As a pro, we love that!). I'm starting to see the CNBC factor. Your thoughts?

Newbies tend to treat the stock market like a casino, which adds a lot of volatilityÉ

Very astute. So, for all of the people in the chat room who want to act more like you (gaining from volatility), how do you play that? Do you like the charts that track movements and momentum?

Investing isn't all that complicated. For stocks, you only have to remember two things. Smaller companies outperform larger ones, and stocks that are cheap outperform stocks that are expensive. A small cap value ETF is a great place for investors to start, as a result.

Will you give our chatters a couple of symbols for small cap ETFs they might check out? Also, do you have any sector ETFs that you like (biotech, green energy, etc...)

The best small cap value ETF (lowest fees) is VBR. If you want to invest in alternative energy, PBW is a good one.

Also, how many of you in the chat room are interested in options? I've been getting a lot of questions from people who are completely new to investing in the stock market who say they are investing in options. Paul, will you comment on options trading for the beginning investor?

Don't do it. The brokers selling them make money. The folks buying them lose money.

I'm pretty much a newbie. I can attest to being affected by CNBC. For instance, I bought lots of penny STEMCELL stocks on my own, yet was hyped by talk of the House of Reps and stem cell research on Election Day. They are all worth a lot less now, but I think I have to stay in since they promise relief to afflicted people.

The problem is that it can take over 10 years to get these products to market, and it costs a lot of money. The human testing process is a roll of the dice. Lots of companies don't make it. The best way to do this is with a package of companies. Assume that most will blow up, but if one makes it, it will be worth it.

Natalie: There are also snake charmers who capitalize on the good sentiments of people's emotions. So be very careful when you invest in penny stocks, no matter what business the company is allegedly in. Paul, I'm sure you have a lot to say on penny stocks. One thing I'll say is that these are companies that can't make the grade to be traded on one of the big boards. You have to do 100 times the research before investing.

You are right. But occasionally you find companies with real products and a big backlog of orders. I have to confess to playing with these once in a while.

I am interested in investing in Canada and in "ethical" stocks. Particularly in alternative energy stocks. Any suggestions?

The Wilderhill Clean energy Portfolio includes a lot of alternative energy stocks in an exchange traded fund. Symbol is PBW. In general, I think ethanol and hydrogen make no sense. I'm partial to solar, wind and hybrid and electric car technology.

How about in Europe, India or China?

We have small investments in Europe and own some solar companies in China. Have yet to find anything compelling in India.

I'm just wondering what else is out there, and being a Canadian, I'm particularly interested in investing here.

I own several Canadian oil and gas trusts, which pay nice dividends.

I also own several Canadian trusts - BTE, ENT, PDS, for the monthly dividends. I'm glad to hear that you trust the trusts, Paul.

The biggest problem is that Canadian oil and gas trusts will lose preferential tax treatment in a few years unless the current government changes its mind.

SoÉ you have a time limit on these trusts? Are you putting them on your sell list for 2009, pending further information on tax status?

Right now, the trusts are priced as though the preferential treatment for dividends will disappear. If that happens, we may shift to some American oil and gas trusts that have a longer reserve life.

Do you think that they will lose their value precipitously? How long can one stay in them? The dividends are great!

They lost their value in about a week, once plans to change the tax status were announced. Some of them look pretty cheap at present.

Paul. What do you think of those Canadian oil sands that I've been hearing so much about?

We haven't invested in oil sands companies, but they have a lot of potential if you assume the price of oil stays high.

Would you assume the price of oil stays high? Or do you think hybrid and electrical technology will impact the consumption (demand) anytime soon?

I think there's another big spike in oil prices in our future as China keeps growing. Too many reserves are off limits in this country, so there's going to be an imbalance between supply and demand. However, the companies making hybrids are laying the foundation for electric cars. More than anything else, that will take the pressure off oil prices at some point in the not too distant future.

I'm not interested in investing in oil, but gas is a bit closer. I'm considering in investing in a company that refurbishes gas extraction equipment.

NPACE: What do you know about gas extraction and/or this company that makes it an investment you are considering?

Actually, I know very little, but I am studying investing with an investment mentoring company, and my advisor has drawn my attention to a company called Alliance Leasing that may become an IPO this year. It is a U.S. company. I gather that there is a shortage of drilling rigs, so they refurbish ones that were in use in the 70s.

NPace: My strategy for investing is: 1) invest in what you know and love. 2) pick the leader in the sector. 3) buy low; sell high. If you are relying on the advice of a mentor, be sure that you know his/her returns on EVERY STOCK they have ever recommended. If you are investing in the wisdom of a guru, the first thing you should know is the total value of their returns, ie. how good they are at the game. If s/he is legitimate, then s/he should be tracked by an independent organization like TipsTraders or Hulbert's Financial Digest. You wouldn't want to place your faith and future in just anyone's handsÉ

What's the relationship of oil and gold prices. If I'm interested in a position in gold still, are there any specific ETFs etc., or is a basket of gold stocks a better strategy? I consider myself a newbie, but I have taken a number of seminars on basic technical analysis and value investing and do my reading and researchÉ

The only connection I can find between oil and gold is that they're both commodities, and we're running out of oil. Some of the foilks buying gold also have bomb shelters and a six-month supply of food. They worry me a bit.

SoÉ about goldÉ Forget it? Or stock up and move into a cave?

NPACE: Gold returns 7% on average annualized, compared to over 12% for stocks and 7% for real estate. Move into a house. Buy stocks. Wear gold jewelry and/or play in gold...

Paul Woods: Buy a house first, then invest in stocks. If you're going to invest in gold, don't make it a big part of your portfolio and use an ETF.

Are you familiar with hy-drive, a Canadian company doing hydrogen fuel and Tide, and American company working on gas lines to Mexico?

I'm not. Hydrogen will never be an economical fuel and a hydrogen tank on a car can explode and turn an entire car into shrapnel in a crash. For zero emission vehicles, battery technology has advanced to the point that electric cars are the only viable option.

I have been paying attention to an alternative treatment for anxiety, depression and learning disorders - CES, cranial electrical stimulation, since the early 1990s. it is a way of slowing down the ratio of super fast beta waves that some people exhibit, which causes them to self medicate with alcohol and marijuana, which both lower the activity of beta waves in favor of alpha waves. Clinically, many children of alcoholics were able to go through a six-week CES training session, and then their brain waves normalized, and they weren't attracted to drugs or alcohol. I am mentioning this because I think the technology needs investment, and then can take market share from pharmaceuticals. Eric Braverman, MD, PATH, is associated with CES, and the technology comes from Washington state.

I'm not familiar with the technology, but there's a glut of venture capital out there so it should get funded if it works.

Natalie: If you wish to contact Paul directly, you can call Odyssey Advisors at 310.568.4700. Their firm manages the assets of high net worth individuals and institutions. When you switch from brokers up to money managers, you are ensuring that you have wisdom and experience on your side... You do have to have a higher net value to qualify, but it might be more within reach than you might have known. Paul what is the minimum amount needed to shop for a money manager?

$100,000.

Paul is one of the smartest guys on Wall Street, so contact him if you qualify for his services and think he might be better able to manage your assets!

 

Paul Woods is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Identity Theft: Don't Leave Your Computer Unlocked With the Keys Inside.

by Jay Pestrichelli, Senior Vice President of Client Experience, TD AMERITRADE.

Jay Pestrichelli, Senior Vice President of Client Experience, TD AMERITRADE

Stop me if you've heard this before. A young, single professional is going through the motions to buy her first home. She's sitting with her mortgage provider, poring over her credit report, when she realizes that unauthorized credit cards have been issued under her name. The cards are carrying substantial balances that have never been paid off, each accounting for a sizable drop in her credit rating.

Or, how about this one: a man logs into his online brokerage account to rebalance his portfolio before the end of the year. He notices several unauthorized transactions and thousands of dollars withdrawn from his account.

And, still worse, a single mother has just finished paying her monthly bills. She has a well-paying job in marketing and earns more than enough to pay for her monthly expenses - as well as a little extra for savings and investing. She is surprised a week later when her bank notifies her that she has significantly overdrawn her account. After reviewing her latest statement, she finds three checks addressed to her nanny that she didn't issue, totaling more than $5,000.

What's the common thread? Unfortunately, in each of these cases we're talking about victims of identity theft, or the targeting of your personal or financial information by criminals to commit fraud. It's a problem that impacts millions of people each year. According to a January 2006 survey from the Better Business Bureau and Javelin Strategy and Research, 8.9 million adults were victims of identity crime in 2005.1

Criminal activity is not new, but identity theft is a new twist on conventional criminal methods. Identity theft takes many forms, but the most common are the following:

  • Outright theft - stealing your purse or wallet;
  • Mail fraud - stealing your mail and responding to credit card offers or using other information, such as bank statements, to steal personal information;
  • Dumpster diving - going through your garbage in search of account numbers, credit card information or, worse yet, your Social Security number;
  • Skimming - copying your credit card when it's out of your hands;
  • Spyware - accessing your personal computer to collect User IDs, passwords and other sensitive information; and
  • Phishing - tricking you into disclosing personal information on a Web site that looks real but is really a counterfeit.

So, what can we do about it? Companies with a heavy online presence, like the one I represent, TD AMERITRADE, spend considerable time and effort developing security systems that help prevent infiltration. However, while we do everything in our power to make sure that our systems are secure, we're limited in what we can do to help individual clients keep their own systems secure from intrusions. We can't configure every computer or wireless device that our clients use to access their accounts - just as a bank can't control who has access to its credit card holders' wallets.

Let's face it, identity theft is scary, but we're not helpless in the fight to prevent it. You would never knowingly leave your car unlocked, with the keys in the ignition, in a public place - would you? Use the same mentality when it comes to protecting yourself against identity theft. Understand the threats and know what you can do about them.

TD AMERITRADE, like other online brokerages and banks, is committed to developing tools, educational information and services to help consumers protect themselves from identity theft. The home base for much of our information is located in the online Security Center, which anyone can access at http://www.tdameritrade.com/security/index.html. At the Security Center, we explain the various threats that exist and offer tips you can take to help protect yourself, including:

  • Use passwords and protect them. This is a big one. One of the easiest and most effective ways to protect your information is to use strong, unique passwords for each of your accounts. Don't write them down and don't share them with anyone.
  • Don't use public computers, like those in Internet Cafes, hotels or restaurants for sensitive transactions.
  • Never share personal information over e-mail.
  • Watch for and check your statements regularly. Pick up the phone if they do not show up, or if you see any activity you do not recognize.
  • Keep your personal information in a safe place in your home, especially if you employ domestic help or have roommates.
  • Unless you know the caller, don't provide personal or financial information over the phone. If a caller sounds suspicious, get his/her name and phone number and call the company back at its listed phone number to verify the caller's identity.
  • Consider using a lockable mailbox at your residence to reduce the chance of mail theft. Leave outgoing mail in post office collection boxes or at the post office.
  • Pick up new checks at the bank, rather than having them mailed to you. If they are mailed to you, make sure that they are all accounted for.
  • Shred your personal papers.

And finally, ask your bank or brokerage about added assistance they may offer. At TD AMERITRADE, we give our clients access to free software that can help protect their personal computers from threats, like Trojans, keystroke loggers and eavesdroppers and discounts to internet security software that help guard against viruses, spyware, and phishing attacks. In addition, we help clients monitor for fraudulent activity through convenient means, such as displaying the last time the account was logged into, right on their secure home page.

We also offer an Asset Protection Guarantee. If you lose cash or securities from your account due to unauthorized activity, we'll reimburse you for the cash or share of securities you lost - period. We're promising you this protection, which adds to the provisions that already govern your account, in case unauthorized activity ever occurs and we determine it was through no fault of your own. We can guarantee this if you work with us in three ways:

1) Keep your account information secure and confidential - don't share it, because sharing your UserID, password, PIN, or account number with other people means you authorize them to take action in your account.
2) Frequently check your account and report any suspicious or unauthorized activity to us immediately.
3) Take the steps we request if your account is ever compromised and cooperate with our investigation. If you help us protect you in these basic ways, we'll promise no fine print and no footnotes...just our commitment to protect the assets you entrust to us.

How's that for peace of mind?

 

Jay Pestrichelli is Senior Vice President of Client Experience for TD AMERITRADE. TD AMERITRADE, Inc., member NASD/SIPC.

This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business. Past performance of a security does not guarantee future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of the principal invested.

Editor's Note: Many brokerages and banks offer Asset Protection Guarantees and information on how to safeguard your assets from fraud. Check with your broker or banker for details.


The Changing of the Guard Ñ the New Congressional Agenda.

Michael Townsend, vice president, Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, Schwab.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi at the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter PIKE Commissioning Ceremony http://www.house.gov/pelosi/photos/PIKE.html

After working into the wee hours Saturday morning, current lawmakers finished a final sprint to complete the 109th session of Congress. The lawmakers will return after the New Year to begin the 110th session when Democrats will control both chambers for the first time in 12 years. In an unusual move, Democratic Party leaders have said that work on issues will begin immediately after the swearing-in of new members on Jan. 4, 2007. Typically, substantive work does not begin until after the State of the Union address, which is towards the end of January. In their first acts of power, Democrats are expected to address the federal minimum wage, lobbying and ethics reform, and Medicare prescription drug costs.

Overall, we expect to see an increased focus on consumer protection issues, an effort to improve tax collection, an attempt to mitigate the impact of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) on middle-class taxpayers, and a new emphasis on how regulation impacts the strength of the U.S. financial markets. Here are some of the issues likely to be on the agenda in 2007:

 

Consumer Protection

  • Credit Card Practices Ñ Incoming Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-CT) has long fought for clearer credit-card disclosures and an end to what he believes are abusive practices. He and Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) have already said that credit-card practices will be the focus of hearings in at least two committees in 2007.
  • Executive Pay Ñ Incoming House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) has pushed legislation to require more disclosure about executive pay and empower shareholders to be involved in some executive pay decisions.
  • Hedge Funds Ñ Both Chairmen Dodd and Frank have said in recent weeks that they are not inclined to push legislation with regard to hedge funds. But hedge funds are a likely target for hearings, with Frank in particular having expressed concern about whether pension funds ought to be investing in hedge funds.
  • 401(k) Fees Ñ Rep. George Miller (D-CA), the incoming chair of the House Committee on Education & the Workforce, has said that he will hold hearings looking into whether the fees that 401(k) plan providers charge are appropriate and whether plan participants understand the impact fees can have on their retirement savings.

Taxes

  • President Bush's Tax Cuts Ñ It is unlikely that Democrats will seek any large-scale rollback of the tax cuts of recent years, particularly in a Presidential election cycle. Most of the tax cuts (e.g. income tax rates, 15 percent rate on capital gains and dividends, the phase-out of the estate tax) expire in 2010, so decisions about what to do about them will likely be left to the next Congress, which begins in January 2009.
  • Alternative Minimum Tax Ñ There is considerable bipartisan interest in fixing the AMT, which was created in the late 1960s to ensure that a handful of the wealthiest Americans paid some tax. Today, millions of increasingly middle-class Americans are impacted by the AMT, and that number will rise to an estimated 30 million by 2010. The incoming chair of the Senate Finance Committee (Sen. Max Baucus, D-MT) and of the House Ways & Means Committee (Rep. Charles Rangel, D-NY) have labeled this a top priority Ñ but the price tag for fixing the AMT is enormously high, so there are no easy solutions.
  • Closing the "Tax Gap" Ñ Another top priority in 2007 will be finding ways to recoup some of the estimated $300 billion in taxes that are owed but go uncollected each year. Finance Committee Chairman Baucus is particularly passionate about this issue and is likely to look at requiring brokers to report the cost basis of stock sales to both customers and the IRS, which would improve collection of capital gains taxes.

Financial Markets

  • Sarbanes-Oxley Ñ There is considerable interest in Congress in looking at whether some parts of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance law cost more to public companies than the benefits they provide to shareholders, investors and consumers. Hearings are likely.
  • Overall Competitiveness of U.S, Markets Ñ The recent report of the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, which raised some concerns about whether legal and regulatory barriers are resulting in the U.S. markets losing ground to foreign markets, is likely to be the focus of attention in both the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees.


Get a Better Job, Get a Better Life.

by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.

Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.

Not only are we working too hard, but a lot of us are working at jobs we don't even like! One day, I was asked to give a speech, and especially to say something about retirement.

"So here's my tip," I said, "Don't retire."

The audience looked at me quizzically.

"If you are working at a job you hate just to put in enough time to get your pension and retire, you are wasting your life. Did you ever hear of a movie star saying, ÔI can't wait until I have my pension funded so I can retire and stop making all these movies'? No. Because actors love their work. At ninety years old, they're trying to convince insurance companies how healthy they are so that they can make a movie. They die onstage. They want to die working because they love their jobs. Find work you love and you won't want to retire from it. Then you can live life richly, fully, enjoying every day, instead of waiting for the day when you can retire. Retire to do what? Lie on the beach? For how many days would that be interesting?"

"Besides, a lot of people don't make it to age 65. Many people die before they reach retirement age. So I suggest you don't wait to enjoy life until you retire. Besides, if you live unhappily all your working life, you'll be locked in the habit pattern of living unhappily. Start enjoying life now, or you won't know how to later."

I could see that some of these people weren't that happy about what I was saying. I could tell from looking at them that many of them didn't love their jobs. It showed on their faces. What they really wanted was The Magic Answer of how they could retire quicklyÑlike how they could get a million dollars saved by next weekÑso they could be free to do what they wanted.

It doesn't work like that. It takes timeÑunless you win the Lotto. But planning to win the Lotto isn't a good retirement plan because it only works for one out of twenty million people. Oh, you could be the one! I just suggest you have a back-up plan in place in case it happens a little further down the road than you expect, if someone else is doing more affirmations every day than you areÉ

Make the Days of Your Life Count
There's an ancient Sufi story of a wealthy man who worked hard all his life amassing a fortune. Growing older, he took a break from work to decide what to do next, and just at that moment, Death came for him. He tried to bargain with Death, offering him one hundred thousand dinars for an extra year of life. Death said no. Two hundred thousand dinars then, the man begged. Death said no. The man scrambled and pleaded, offering half his fortune for one extra hour of life, but Death was implacable. Finally, the man offered his entire fortune for just one extra moment. Death agreed and the man wrote, with his last breath, a message to humanity: "Be careful with your time. I could not buy one additional hour of life for five hundred thousand dinars."

Do you value the hours of your life? Are you working at something you love and believe in and are committed to? Or are you at least working at something that is preparing you for the work you were born to do? Do you hate to wake up in the morning because you hate your job? I had those days once. Days when I woke up in the dark just before the alarm rang, and thought, "Oh please don't be time to get up yet. I don't want to have to go to that job." Those were the worst days of my life.

Don't wait another day to be happy and fulfilled in your work. Get out. Get another job. I don't care how tight the job market is, have you ever seen a newspaper without want ads in it? Read them from the first "A" all the way to the last "Z", even engineering or sales or anything you think isn't your style or your experience or your education. You'll get creative ideas just by looking at them. Call executive search companies, search the internet, send the word out to your network. Go back to school if you need a degree to do the thing that really interests you, that makes your soul sing.

A psychologist I worked with once told me that she enrolled in graduate school to get her doctorate when she was 40 years old. "Why are you doing that?" her friends asked. "You'll be 50 before you get your Ph.D.!" She answered, "I'm going to be 50 anyway. I'll either be 50 without a Ph.D. or 50 with a Ph.D. I'd rather be 50 with one." And ten years later, she had her doctorate in psychology. But she was happy every year while she was working on her goal, not just the years since achieving it. The happiness of life is in the pursuit of happiness. The artist doesn't paint one picture, hang it on the wall, and stare at it for sixty years. The joy of the artist is in the act of creating. And creating. And creating...

If you want to join the hordes of Tunas working their lives away in "quiet desperation", waiting for their Social Security check to give them respite from soul-deadening work, be my guest. But if you want to join the Dolphins who are working towards Zillionaire status, you have different requirements to satisfy. No Zillionaire hates their job.

Social Security was set up in the 1930s with the retirement age set at 65 because most people died by age 63. Social Security was never intended to be something that supported everyone for the last 25-30 years of their lives. It was a stop-gap measure to take care of the few people who outlived the norm and were too frail or sick to work. But like most things in our lives, our political habits also outlive the circumstances they were designed to fit. Politicians who serve at the will of the people have a difficult time asking those same people to give up their benefits. It's an unpopular political stand to tinker with Social SecurityÑespecially if you want to raise the retirement ageÑbut that is what needs to happen.

You can be angry about that; you can complain that you paid taxes lo these many years and you shouldn't have those benefits you counted on taken away from you, but guess what? Play "Show me the money!" and count it up: No government can keep High Budget spending on Low Budget income forever. Some ingrained political habits need to be broken.

But you are a Zillionaire-in-training, so don't wait for the government to catch up. You aren't interested in living your senior years on Social Security Low Budget anyway. You need to take your own actions to make sure you are living life to the fullest and saving pots of money for later, tooÑbut much later. Consider me your habit-breaker, the counter-intuitive financial advisor who says retirement is not the goal. Saving money is not the end-all and be-all of your life. It's just a line item on your budget. It deserves attention and contributions, but not everything. As the Citibank advertisement said, "If you gave up your morning coffee for a year, you could make an extra mortgage payment. But man, you'd be grumpy."

 

Chellie Campbell is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine at www.chellie.com.

 

Winging It.

by Margaret Heffernan.

An excerpt from the new book from How She Does It: How Women Entrepreneurs are Changing the Rules of Business Success.  

How She Does It: How Women Entrepreneurs are Changing the Rules of Business Success (Viking; On-sale date: January 22, 2007; ISBN: 978-0-670-03823-7; $25.95; 288 pages). Part biography and part blueprint for starting and running a successful business, HOW SHE DOES IT redefines power and the nature of success for the 21st century.

Reprinted by arrangement with Viking, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. Copyright © 2007 by Margaret Heffernan. 



When I finally get through on the phone, much to my amazement, June Coldren is laughing. "Oh my god, it's ridiculous. It's been insanity. It's pretty wild. We evacuated New Orleans and moved west to Lafayette -- and now it looks like the storm is heading back up to us! They're basically evacuating everyone from Galveston right along the coast to Louisiana. All my staff who were evacuated here left yesterday to help evacuate their families. Another tidal surge and everything will get wet all over again. I'm ready to move to Canada!"
 
June's family and her companies, Cenergy Corp. and Cenergy Logistics, were based in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina hit on August 29, 2005. Everyone scattered, to friends, to family. But when it was all over, June had two companies to run, companies that catered to the oil and gas companies in the Gulf of Mexico, themselves in turmoil. Three weeks after the storm hit, the website proudly announced that Cenergy was up and running.

"I love just winging it. That's just how I am. The logistics group - some of them live in Lafayette so they came here and set up. So then we all got in touch and realized Lafayette was going to be best place to be. We identified an office, set up, signed a lease and moved in. Everyone who could get here did. The hard thing was to find places to live. There were no hotel rooms, no houses to rent. One of the guys I work with had an extra house so I feel like a queen because I have a house to live in! But a lot of people didn't luck out like that. You have to keep going."
 
Not every business gets hit by a hurricane. But every business will suffer shocks and setback - and successes - it had in no way foreseen.  You can plan, do your research, and plan again. But the one thing you have to be able to do is improvise. What makes women so good at this is that they have, as psychologist Simon Baron-Cohen wrote, "no expectation of lawfulness."  Women do not approach business expecting it to obey rules. We don't think of business as a machine which, if we could just understand the physics well enough, we could control. So many descriptions of business and management carry this assumption: that if you could just study companies deeply enough, crunch the numbers long enough, you can glean the scientific laws of business that govern business behavior. But business isn't a science; you can't design or conduct replicable experiments. No two companies are the same, no two days are the same. The variables are infinite. And so starting from the premise that there are rules is doomed to frustration. Where women start - with no expection of lawfulness - turns out to be a lot more realistic.  That doesn't mean women don't believe in plans or decisions. It just means that we aren't especially thrown when events render them meaningless.
 

Margaret Heffernan has been the CEO of five different businesses in the United States and the UK. A former producer for the BBC and author of The Naked Truth: A Working Woman's Manifesto on Business and What Really Matters, she is a regular contributor to both Real Business and Fast Company magazine as well as a Visiting Professor of Entrepreneurship at the Simmons College School of Management.

As the CEO of five different businesses in the United States and the UK, Margaret Heffernan knows a thing or two about the evolving role of women in business - and in How She Does It: How Women Entrepreneurs are Changing the Rules of Business Success (Viking; On-sale date: January 22, 2007; ISBN: 978-0-670-03823-7; $25.95; 288 pages), she profiles 27 of the most dynamic and visionary female entrepreneurs working in business today.


New Year, New Job Ñ What To Do With Your 401(k).

by Rande Spiegelman, vice president of financial planning, Schwab Center for Investment Research.

Leaving a job to take a new position (or look for one) can be pretty stressful. There's a lot to think about, including what to do with the 401(k) you had at your old job. Making a smart decision could save you some money, not to mention keep you on track for a comfortable retirement.

Four Choices for Your 401(k)
When you leave a job where you contributed to a 401(k), you have four basic choices:

1. Take the cash
2. Leave the money where it is
3. Roll it over into your new employer's
4. Roll it over into an individual retirement account (IRA)

The most tempting choice may be to take the money, especially if you're unemployed and could use the cash. "I'm still young," you think. "There's plenty of time to make up the money I'm skimming from my 401(k)." But unless you have absolutely no choice, don't do it.

If you take money out of your 401(k) before the age of 59-and-a-half (or before age 55 in the case of "separation from service") you have to pay a 10 percent federal penalty (state penalties may also apply). Even if penalties don't apply, you'll still be subject to federal, state and, in some cases, local income taxes. What's more, the government will help itself to 20 percent of your withdrawal as an advance on your tax bill.

For example, if you cash out of a 401(k) worth $56,000, you could end up paying a federal penalty of $5,600 plus, say, 28 percent in federal income tax

(20 percent of which is withheld from the distribution). Your $56,000 has turned into $34,720. And that doesn't even include any state and local taxes and penalties you may owe.

Taking Cash From Your 401(k)
Pros:

- Immediate use of your money

Cons:
- Money loses tax-deferred status
- 20 percent mandatory withholding
- May be subject to a federal 10 percent early withdrawal penalty, state penalties where applicable, and additional federal, state and local taxes
- Lose flexibility to move into qualified plan or IRA after 60 days

What's more, the opportunity cost will likely be huge. That $56,000, left to grow at, say, a hypothetical 8 percent annual rate (1) of return would amount to roughly $563,500 some 30 years from now. That kind of money would come in handy during retirement. And that's the point, after all.

"But what if I only take out $5,000?" you say. You might still end up paying a $500 penalty plus $1,400 in federal tax (assuming a 28 percent bracket), leaving you with just $3,100 left over Ñ with possible state and local taxes still to pay. That $5,000 growing tax deferred at our hypothetical 8 percent for 30 years could become $50,300 in retirement money.

A car, travel, credit card debt, even a home or a college education usually aren't good enough reasons to dip into your 401(k), much less rent and groceries. Don't raid your retirement assets unless you have no other choice.

Here are some wiser choices; in each case, your money continues to grow tax deferred for retirement:
- Leave your money in your old 401(k) even though you don't work at company anymore (but make sure you're comfortable dealing with former employer)
- Roll over the money directly into your new employer's 401(k) when take a new job
- Roll it over directly into your own IRA

Most employers pre-select the mutual funds available in their 401(k) plans, which can be a plus or a drawback. The ability to choose from 15 or 20 funds, for example, provides a nice range of choices without the hassle of screening hundreds of funds yourself. But if your 401(k) offers only three or four fund selections, you may want to think about an IRA rollover (more below).

Keep in mind that a 401(k) is a "one size fits all" retirement plan. Your company has to manage the plan with all of its employees in mind, not just you. Expect less flexibility than you would generally get with your own IRA. On the plus side, your employer will likely pay any administrative fees Ñ not necessarily so with an IRA.

Stay in Your Old 401(k)
Pros:

- Avoid current income taxes, penalties and 20 percent withholding
- Money continues to grow tax deferred
- Retain ability to roll over at a later date

Cons:
- Investment choices limited to employer's plan
- Plan may limit withdrawals and exchange between investments

Roll Over to New Employer's 401(k)
Pros:

- Avoid current income taxes, penalties and 20 percent withholding
- Money continues to grow tax deferred
- Easier to track retirement assets
- May be able to borrow against your 401(k)

Cons:
- Investment choices limited to employer's plan
- Plan may limit withdrawals and exchange between investments

The other possibility is to roll over your 401(k) money into an IRA. Like a 401(k), an IRA keeps your retirement money growing tax deferred, but with two major advantages: flexibility and control.

- Flexibility. An IRA generally allows you to invest your money however you like Ñ mutual funds, stocks, bonds and so on. You'll likely have advice from the financial institution that holds the IRA, and you can reallocate your investments whenever and however you please (minus any trading fees, of course).
- Control. With an IRA, you can invest and access your money without having to go through a 401(k) provider.

However, there are some caveats:
- A qualified employer plan, such as a 401(k), may have more legal protection from creditors than an IRA. Although the level of IRA protection differs under various state laws, a 2005 U.S. Supreme Court ruling (Rousey v. Jacoway, 03-1407) shields traditional IRA assets in bankruptcy when the funds are found reasonably necessary for the account holder's or his/her dependents' support. Furthermore, federal bankruptcy reform signed into law in 2005 protects from creditors Ñ for any reason up to $1 million held in traditional and Roth IRAs.
- You can usually borrow from your current 401(k) plan, but not from your IRA (not that borrowing from your future retirement is a good idea, except in cases of extreme need).
- If you have company stock in your 401(k) you should think twice before rolling it over into an IRA. Company stock held in a 401(k) could receive favorable tax treatment if it's gone up in value and you have distributed directly. Such favorable treatment doesn't apply if company stock is rolled over into an IRA, though there can be benefits to this choice as well.

Rolling Over to Your Own IRA
Pros:

- Avoid current income taxes, penalties and 20 percent withholding
- Money continues to grow tax deferred
- Choose your own investments
- Maximum flexibility Ñ Roll IRA assets back into a 401(k) or convert Roth IRA at a later date
- Easy access to your investments

Cons:
- Can't borrow against assets
- No special distribution alternatives such as net unrealized appreciation (NUA) treatment for distributions of company stock, or forward averaging
- May have to pay annual fee
- Beyond state law, traditional IRA assets are generally protected from creditors to the extent the funds are found reasonably necessary for support (U.S. Supreme Court).
- Traditional and Roth IRA assets are protected for any reason only up to $1 million under federal bankruptcy law

There you have it: four basic choices for what to do with your 401(k). You may want to do some more research to figure out the best choice in your particular case, or even get advice from a financial or tax advisor. Lastly, don't forget about the power of tax-deferred compounding: Be sure to contribute to the 401(k) plan at your new job and, if you can, continue making contributions to your IRA.

For more articles related to retirement strategies, please click the following link:
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/retirement_strategies/index.html

(1) The 8 percent return is for illustrative purposes only, and is not necessarily indicative of anything available now or in the future.


Blue Chip Returns: #1 for 20 Years.

by Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends stock newsletter.

Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter

Editor's Note: Kelley Wright is currently outperforming all of his peers, by bringing in the top risk-adjusted returns on Wall Street with his stock newsletter, IQTrends.com, for the past 20 years, at 12.9% according to Hulbert's Financial Digest.

I had the pleasure last week to participate in the annual Business and Financial Roundtable that is sponsored by The Daily Transcript, San Diego's only daily business newspaper. The moderator was Executive Editor George Chamberlin, a long-time San Diego advocate for investor education.

The Roundtable is a free-flowing discussion on a wide-range of topics which include: the macro-economy; publicly-traded San Diego based companies; the broader markets, interest rates, oil, gold and real estate.

The expertise of the seven participants ranged from investment advisors, hedge fund managers, private equity syndications, real estate speculators, investment bankers and of course, yours truly.

As you might expect, the range of opinions were quite varied. As you might also expect, nobody strayed too far from their world view or the belief that their sector or area of focus was in good shape and they were looking for a good year. Even the real estate proponents were upbeat and opined that the worst was over.

At the end of the ninety minute session I came away with renewed affirmation that while these discussions are interesting, they can become distractions from the primary purpose of investing; growing a capital and income base to meet the long-term cash needs of the investor.

It is our opinion that one invests to generate cash now or cash later. In either event all investment portfolios are eventually relied upon to produce the cash needed to meet ones needs. A need is anything one feels is necessary or desirable to make them feel safe and secure. Examples might include a secure retirement income, education funding, elder care or other special needs, or merely to maintain a specific lifestyle.

When needs are unmet the investor feels anxiety and often takes on unnecessary risk to correct the situation. Too often these risks are beyond the investors' emotional threshold of pain and they end up selling at major market turning points.

It is our opinion that investors can avoid these situations by deploying their investment capital into shares of high-quality stocks that are trading at historic levels of good value as measured by their dividend yields. While our approach is long-term in nature, we remind subscribers that building capital and income is a process, not an event.

We would point to stocks such as Mc Donald's, which we own at $16 and $20 and enjoy an average yield on purchase of approximately 5% and have realized over 300% capital appreciation in slightly less than four years. We could list many additional examples but MCD is sufficient to make the point.

In today's 24/7 world of instantaneous dissemination of political and economic news, market participants process and react to this news by placing trades that reflect their analysis of how this news impacts their investment portfolios. This is the source of market fluctuations and it applies over all the markets: stocks; bonds; commodities; interest rates; etc. This is a necessary function of investing and acts as a form of self-regulation.

Our job as enlightened investors is to avoid the distractions of the marketplace and to focus on those decisions that we can control. This is to say that the macro-economy, interest rates, stock market fluctuations and the prices of commodities will behave and perform as they will. Individually we have no control of these matters. What we can control is where and when we invest our capital. To that end, as long as we limit our investment considerations to shares of Select Blue Chips that represent historic good value, over time, our cash needs will be met and all will be well.

The Investment Quality Trends newsletter does extensive analysis to determine when a stock is overvalued and ripe to sell, as well as undervalued and primed to buy. Check out IQTrends.Com, where you can go for a free tour of their newsletter and check out their criteria for evaluating stocks. I've been featuring Kelley Wright in my ezine for the past few years, and for Blue Chips, you really cannot get any better than the criteria/formula/screening of IQTrends.com. Blue Chips generate, for the most part, easy, stable money returns, and the IQTrends.com stock newsletter is well worth the small investment that you pay to receive Kelley's newsletter and research twice a month.


Buy High; Sell Higher? Why 2007 is Poised to be a Banner Year.

by Natalie Pace. Includes our Hot News on Cool Stocks List.

FYI: NataliePace.com is still at the top of over 830 A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com in annualized gains! All of the companies featured in NataliePace.com are pulling down 42% gains on average every year (that's almost 50 cents on the dollar). The list below features 32 companies earning great gains, versus just five that are headed in the opposite direction.

 

 

 

Friday, January 12, 2007

Friday, January 26, 2007

Dow: 12,556.08

Dow: 12, 487.02

Nasdaq: 2,502.82

Nasdaq: 2,435.49

S&P: 1,430.73

S&P: 1,422.18

There are two trends that I await feverishly. I look forward to the Santa Rally every year, and the pre-election year rally once every four years. The Santa Rally - or the last quarter of each year -- typically sees 50% of the year's stock market gains. The historical performance of the pre-election year is reliably more rewarding than the other three years in the Presidential cycle. A strong economy is a better platform for any candidate to run on, and typically the years between elections are spent fixing whatever imbalances have occurred as a result of ramping up for the main event.

Pre-Election Year Performance Since 1991

Years

NASDAQ

S&P 500

Dow Jones Industrial Average

1.2.91 - 12.31.91

+67%

+28%

+24%

1.3.95 - 12.29.95

+41%

+34%

+40%

1.4.99 - 12.31.99

+78%

+19.6

+20%

1.2.2003 - 12.31.2003

+50%

+22%

+21%

Average for pre-election year returns since 1991

+59%

+25.9%

+26.25%

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com

The average yearly gain for the stock market (the Wilshire 5000) over the past 15 years is just 10.7%, so you can clearly see what a thrill pre-election years can be!

It's not just history supporting this trend, however. This year, there continues to be impressive earnings growth, concentrated in emerging markets, like Internet Technology, renewable energy and gambling. Google, eBay, Suntech Power Holdings, Las Vegas Sands and Apple each have doubled revenue over the last two years.

There is also no debt and a lot of cash in many of those same sectors (excluding Las Vegas Sands, which has a lot of debt). Microsoft has $28.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, Apple sits on $11.8 billion and Google's war chest boasts $10.4 billion in cash.

Real estate is rolling over, and investors are migrating from Main Street (real estate investments) to Wall Street (stocks and mutual funds). Gridlock in Congress means that nothing changes fast, without bi-partisan cooperation. In an environment where the status quo seems to be working for the economy, stalled-out government reform can be beneficial.

So, whereas three out of four years, January is the top-performing month, and it's a good time to consider selling out and taking some of your profits, this January may be the beginning of a great pre-election year rally, just as we saw in 2003, 1999, 1995 and 1991!

Note that what we are reporting this in direct opposition to Jim Cramer's counsel on Mad Money. On January 17, 2007, Jim Cramer told his viewers to "Bail on technology during the January to August doldrums, but not on Cisco, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard and Google." (Those five select technology stocks are "too powerful to be cowed by seasonality," according to Jim.) Note again, that in every pre-election year since 1991, there has been NO sustained or significant downtrend from January through August, just a rocket ship to gains from January to December, with NASDAQ (which is heavy on technology) rewarding investors with twice the gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com

With so many investors hanging on Cramer's comments, we decided to log in his lightning round picks on that day as well. We'll return to this again in June, to see how the year is playing out, and how Cramer's picks are performing. Incidentally, Cramer's #1 value stock of the year is Altria, more commonly known as Phillip Morris, the cigarette company. He's calling it a buy at $88.57.

Think we're picking on Cramer? Nah, we're just keeping tabs on performance, which is something that you should do before you bank on any pundit. If you're interested in tried and true stock picking, it's best to consult the independent trackers, like Hulbert's Financial Digest and TipsTraders.com. These two organizations hold journalists and money managers' feet to the fire, tracking each and every pick they mention. TipsTraders.com has me at the top of over 830 A-list pundits with 41% annualized gains, going into my 8th year. Hulbert's (which doesn't track my picks yet) places our favorite Blue Chip stock picker, Kelley Wright of Investment Quality Trends, at #1 in 20-year risk-adjusted returns, with 12.9% every year, compared to the stock market performance of 11.6% over the same period. Below are the top performers for the past 5 years, according to Hulbert's:

Top Performing Stock Newsletters for the last 5 Years
Outstanding Investments 34.3%
Closed-end Country Fund Report 30.6%
The Dines Letter 29.2%
The Ruff Times 26.3%
International Harry Schultz Letter 25.3%

Source: Hulbert's Financial Digest

We're still concerned about terrorism and pension fund obligations. War may be good for Halliburton, but most industries, economies, nations and people suffer greatly under the influence of violence, destruction, contention, warmongering and death. An attack on the U.S., as we experienced in 2001, takes the economy down overnight, so make sure that you are not over-concentrated in any one asset class - not real estate, stocks, bonds or Beanie Babies. And remember that past performance is no guarantee that the future repeats itself. Be balanced, and always be prepared for surprises. Investing should not be gambling. (So, be sure to read the article that talks more about that in this month's ezine.)

With regard to pension plans, since there are only 3 workers supporting every retiree these days, corporations that promised money and health care to their workers are finding it hard to be competitive with companies that rely on their employees to direct their own retirement plans (401ks) and health care. Benefits-based pension plans are largely extinct in corporate America, except for those industries with a heavy union presence, like defense, airlines, auto manufacturing and telecommunications. The airlines, telecommunications and auto sectors have seen many bankruptcies, including Delta, US Airways, United Airlines, WorldCom, Global Crossing and Delphi. You don't want to be on the wrong side of this trend.

General Motors and Ford have kept afloat, but at a heavy price. Ford reported on January 25, 2007, that they lost $12.7 billion last year. According to the Associated Press, that loss amounted to "an average of $1,925 for every car and truck it sold and the worst loss in the company's 103-year-history." General Motors reported in November 2006 that they owe over $50 billion to pensions and other post employment benefits. The market value of GM is only $18.74 billion, and GM's operating income in 2005 was a loss of $16.9 billion. On January 26, 2007, GM reported that it will delay filing its 4Q earnings, while it looks into an accounting error from 2002.

Yours in peace and prosperity,

Natalie

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:

    1. Interest Rates: In a Pause Pattern. The Federal Open Market Committee paused in August, September, October and December, after raising interest rates 17 consecutive times prior. The federal funds rate remains at 5-Å%. The next meeting is scheduled over the course of two days at the end of this month, on January 30-31. Few are expecting any action this time, and many believe the next move will be down.

    2. Interested in reading the minutes of the December FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. They are available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! "Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market," according to the Feds. While readings on core inflation have been "high," the Committee determined that "inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time." There was only one governor who voted for a rate hike of 25 basis points. The other 10 were in favor of the pause.

      The tentative meeting schedule for the 2007 calendar is: January 30-31, 2007, March 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday), May 9 (Wednesday), June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday), September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is an indicator that there is double the concern over managing the economy in the coming months.

    3. Online Chats: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money managers, economists, respected money gurus and CEOs! Don't miss out. Enter the chat room now to make sure that you know how to do it and that you don't have any firewall issues preventing you from accessing the room. (You'll need your passwords.)

Bottom Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information, but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your age, your retirement goals, and your risk tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission of providing the news and information you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.

Full disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own or intend to buy under the column "NP OWNS?"

Hot News on Cool Stocks List

Highlighted Companies (Hot List):
Apple (AAPL)
eBay (EBAY)
GAP (GPS)
Intuit (INTU)
OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP)
Siruis Satellite Radio (SIRI)
U.S. Gold (UXG), just added to the AMEX & TSX.

Note: Gap was deleted in the January 2007 issue because the holiday sales were 8% lower in 2006 from the year prior, and it was clear there was to be a reshuffling of executives. We've put the Gap back on our Hot list, now that CEO Paul Pressler has his walking papers. Read on for more news on Gap, and why the company may be poised for "cool" again.

RECENT DELETIONS:
Agilent:
Removed on 2.1.07 with flat performance.

Las Vegas Sands: Removed on 1.1.07. 139% gains are good enough for us. $223 million in insider selling, just at the time that the company is under pressure to finalize the terms of their building of "Asia's Las Vegas" in Macao smells fishier than the Hong Kong harbor to us.

RELM Wireless (RELM): This small company has an impressive CEO who has done great things. The sales are increasing. Normally this would keep a company like RELM on our list. My concern is simply that while the marketplace should be huge, the Federal budget line items may not be ramping up for this type of spending. Additionally, with all of the focus on cutting back on defense, this communications company may suffer, even though great communications are key to firemen, police officers, etc. as well.

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them or if you are willing to come in at a higher price). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company NP owns? Symbol Price when featured

Price

1.26.07

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$85.38

$85.38

$97.80

$45.26

--

Barclay's Global Investors just purchased over 5% interest in Apple on January 13, 2007. Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt joined the Apple board of directors in Oct. 2006. Very positive for the long term. Steve Jobs is one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1. Former CFO Fred Anderson resigned from the Apple Board on 10.4.06, due to the options backdating scandal. The internal investigation at Apple revealed that Steve Jobs did NOT directly benefit from any back-dated options, but that he "was aware that favorable grant dates had been selected" according to a company press release. The board at Apple is standing behind Jobs, but the Los Angeles Times put a scathing article on the scandal on the cover of its paper January 3, 2007. More ink could follow, though most of the major press orgs are barely mentioning the problem, focusing instead on the sexy new Apple iPhone. The popularity of the iPod and the dominance that Jobs is gaining with his alliances with Disney and Google should keep Apple at the top of the technology performers over the next few years at minimum. On the other hand, headlines on the options backdating scandals could spook investors into selling. The price is high, and the new iPhone isn't going to be released until June. If there is any bad news in the meantime, there may be a buying opportunity. (However, Apple has done a smash-up job of luring consumers, investors and reporters to focus on products and sales, which are mind-boggling, instead of the SEC investigation.) Apple's licensing deal to sell Universal Music is set to expire in May. Apple is a company you're going to want to own - and everyone wishes they'd had the prescience to buy in at a better price. On 1.9.07, Apple(R) announced that more than two billion songs, 50 million television episodes and over 1.3 million feature-length films have been purchased and downloaded from the iTunes(R) Store (www.itunes.com), making it the world's most popular online music, TV and movie store. If you want in now, there are a lot of great reasons to jump into the iStore phenomenon. Jobs is a genius, and the world is his oyster.

Blockbuster

RISK: VERY HIGH

No

BBI

$3.61

$6.30

$10.65

$3.19

+74.5%

See vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." At that time, BBI was a very high-risk company in a competitive market, when/where films may be downloaded instead of rented in the near future (think iPod). Now, it appears as though BBI is going to make its own run at the digital download market. BBI plans to enter the digital download market by the end of 2007, according to reports from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, January 2007. BBI also noted that they have an exclusive deal with the Weinstein Brothers to distribute their content. CEO John Antioco purchased $1 million (value) shares on 11.21.06 at $4.66 each On Jan. 3, 2007, company reported that they met their benchmark of having 2 million subscribers by year-end 2006: "We are pleased that we achieved our year-end goal of 2 million subscribers, an addition of more than 500,000 paying subscribers since the end of the third quarter. We credit our success to BLOCKBUSTER Total Access(TM), which gives our online customers the option of returning their DVDs through the mail or exchanging them at a participating BLOCKBUSTER(R) store for free in-store movie rentals," said John Antioco Blockbuster Chairman and CEO. "The strong consumer appeal of Blockbuster Total Access has translated into significant subscriber growth and was accomplished without any broadcast media except in a handful of test markets." BBI has over 8,000 stores throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia and Australia. BBI is selling Rhino Video Games chain to GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME). Strong marketing campaign in December helped BBI achieve their goals of 2 million subscribers:Through Dec. 21, Netflix customers got free movie rentals at Blockbuster stores in exchange for the Netflix mailing labels they normally would throw away (one DVD rental per label).

Citigroup

No

C

$50.38

$54.67

$57.00

$43.83

+8.5%

Refer to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup's appeal. According to an Associated Press report on 11.29.06, Citigroup will be one of the first banks operating in China. Global Strategist Marc Miles says, "Citigroup has bought a significant stake in one of the ailing banks. They were willing to absorb huge existing debt in order to get in. But when you look at the population and the growing wealth, that looks like a good long term investment." China is due to open its banking sector fully to foreign competition by Dec. 11 under conditions set when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Rising interest rates and the current M&A mania are positive for Citigroup. At long last, things are starting to look favorable for the red umbrella. Purchased AkBank on 1.09.07. Akbank currently has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a premier, full-service retail, commercial, corporate and private bank in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6 billion and a deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the third largest bank by assets and the most profitable private banking institution in the country.

Disney

No

DIS

$25.08

$34.55

$34.89

$23.77

+37.7%

Announces 1Q earnings on 2.7.07. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter increased 89% to $0.36, compared to $0.19 in the prior-year period, reflecting growth at Studio Entertainment, Parks and Resorts, and Media Networks. The Company generated $4.8 billion in free cash flow during fiscal 2006 compared to $2.4 billion in the prior year, reflecting an increase of $1.8 billion in cash provided by operations and a decrease of $0.5 billion in capital expenditures. Wow! Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film company meets the most successful family media company meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds like the happiest place on Earth to us. The largest individual stockholder is Steve Jobs. During the year ended September 30, 2006, the Company repurchased 243 million shares for $6.9 billion, of which 96 million shares were purchased for $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter. As of September 30, 2006, the Company had authorization in place to repurchase approximately 206 million additional shares. Pirates of the Caribbean blockbusters equal film profits, DVD profits and renewed interest in the theme parks! According to the annual report, CEO Bob Iger received $22 million in compensation last year (not including stock options). His pay included $2 million salary and a $15 million cash bonus. The company's annual shareholders meeting will be March 8 at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans. In his keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show, Bob Iger said, "Since the day Mickey dared to speak in a `talkie,' Disney has boldly taken its content to the cutting edge. Wherever the path of unfolding technologies and imaginative new platforms may lead, Disney will be there. Year in and year out, we are proud to bring our creative content to your innovative products." CEO Bob Iger was one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.

eBay

Yes

eBAY

$29.75

$31.65

$47.86

$22.83

+6%

See the articles, "Wow Dow," in vol. 3, iss. 11 and, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in volume 3, issue 9. Skype's new products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware) will likely start adding a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line by the first quarter of 2007, since Skype is growing faster than mySpace in terms of registered users. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." eBay bought StubHub Inc. for $310 million on 1.12.07. StubHub said it generated about $100 million in sales in 2006 on $400 million gross ticket sales. CEO Meg Whitman was one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.

GAP

No

GPS

$20.30

$19.04

$37.02

$15.91

-6%

See the article, "Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign," from vol. 1, iss. 12. We were anticipating that more people would catch the (Product) Red bug this holiday season, but the red states opted for electronics, cheap duds (JC Penney and Walmart) and those beautiful, anorexic waifs in Victoria's Secret's skimpy clothing. The Gap experienced a 4% decline in sales (from last December), and reduced expectations for their full year as a result. Poor performance resulted in the resignation of the President and CEO Paul Pressler, Gap Inc., and a number of division heads at Gap and Old Navy. Why do we do we think that is a good thing? Because Pressler's strategy of "focus" group designers runs against everything we know about fashion. By the time the masses get it, it's outdated. With the Fisher family back in charge and their legacy of leading designing trends, there is reason to be optimistic that the company will go back to its roots and come out with a plan that excites the world again. Additionally, in the "show me your friends and I'll tell you who you are" category, the friends surrounding Gap these days are mighty, powerful and successful. You've got Goldman Sachs advising them on the turnaround strategy. GAP is one of an elite group of companies that are attached to PRODUCT (RED), the pet project of Bono and Bobby Shriver, alongside Apple, American Express, Motorola, Emporio Armani and more. Between now and the annual report, scheduled to be released at the end of March, 2007, the share price should be turbulent. The company is under pressure to report something good on the leadership and designer front, to offset the poor performance of 2006. Also, bear in mind that there have been $123 million in insider sales since August 2006, mostly by members of the founding Fisher family. ( All of the sellers still hold tens of millions of shares.) The fast, definitive action, the ongoing commitment to Bono and Bobby Shriver's PRODUCT (RED) and having Goldman Sachs in their corner really sets the stage for some promising surprises for this legacy clothing retailer. That is if the team comes up with a winning leader.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern Europe

No

EUROX

$33.87

$44.85

$50.00

$23.02

+32%

Vanguard seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries, in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund should reflect the difference.

Genentech

No

DNA

$13.50

$81.13 (12.30.06)

$86.57

$100.20

$75.58

543%

Purchased Tanox on 1.16.07. Received 8 FDA approvals in 2006. The FDA approved the use of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage breast cancer on 11.17.06. DNA is a Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply to the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs. Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone is expected to bring in $2 billion in annual sales by 2007. Genentech reported record annual earnings results on 1.10.07: U.S. product sales of $7,169 million, a 39% increase over sales of $5,162 million in 2005 and GAAP net income of $2.113 billion, a 65% increase over net income of $1.279 billion in 2005. Tarceva is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $402 million in 2006.

Google (Green)

No

GOOG

$85

$495.84

$513.00

$273.35

483%

Owns YouTube.com, one of the most popular sites on the web. Google joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price. Announced 3Q 2006 earnings on Thursday, October 19, 2006 at 1:30 p.m. PT. Google reported revenues of $2.69 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2006, an increase of 70% compared to the third quarter of 2005 and an increase of 10% compared to the second quarter of 2006. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." On a worldwide basis, Google employed 9,378 full-time employees as of September 30, 2006, up from 7,942 full time employees as of June 30, 2006. As of September 30, 2006, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $10.4 billion. Filed annual report in 2006 on March 16 and on March 30 the year prior. YouTube is working hard with studios and music publishers to get licenses in place, however, with the Universal Music Group suing MySpace, there is pressure to get this done very quickly. We'll keep you posted. There is nothing wrong with taking profits in your trading portfolio, because, at this price, investors get very skittish over night when expectations are adjusted downward. $48 million sold so far by insiders in Dec. 2006 and Jan. 2007; $14 million by Eric Schmidt. Dr. Eric Schmidt was one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1. Google announces 4Q earnings at 4:30 ET (1:30 PT) on Wed., January 31, 2007. You can go to a live webcast at http://investor.google.com/webcast.

Intuit

No

INTU

$31.72

$31.12

$35.98

$22.93

Flat

According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." Intuit Inc. reported on 10.30.06 that the Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its investigation into the software maker's stock option accounting practices without taking any punitive action. 11.17.06 earnings report: 1Q 2007 revenue increased 19% over the year-ago quarter to $362.1 million. Growth was primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks software and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. Intuit posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss of $58.9 million versus a net loss of $45.8 million in the first quarter of 2006. According to the company press release, "Intuit typically posts a seasonal loss in its first quarter when it has little revenue from its tax businesses." 2Q revenue last year was 144% higher than 1Q in 2005 and similar results in 2004. $72 million in insider sales in 2006, mostly by Scott Cook, Chairman of the Board, who still has 26 million shares remaining. Intuit's TurboTax product is loved by the media and by consumers, and gets the first spot on the search word "taxes" on Google. According to Amazon.com, Intuit has seven of the top 10 bestsellers for office and business, including the top four bestsellers.

Krispy Kreme

RISK: HIGH

No

KKD

$10.22

$12.88

$12.88

$3.35

+26%

Have you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? Sales per factory store increased approximately 16% and 12% over last year's 3rd quarter, according to a press release issued by KKD on 12.11.06. Revenues were down to $117 million for the 3Q of fiscal 2007, which ended 10.29.06, compared to revenues of approximately $129 million for the third quarter a year ago, largely due to a decrease in the number of factory stores. According to Daryl Brewster, President and Chief Executive Officer, "The Company has agreed to settle the class action lawsuit and most of the shareholder derivative litigation. Average unit volumes rose at Company-owned stores. Krispy Kreme continued its international expansion while filling several key management positions critical to achieving sustained growth." KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. If we love their product, KKD's CEO has proven to be a turnaround specialist, and he's done a great job over the past year.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$35.30 (11.11)

$52.21

$48.89

$17.15

+47.9%

Read "Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers accordingly. On 10.26.06, the Company reported net sales of $407.9 million, which represents an increase of over 10% from the second quarter level of $370.5 million. Net income was $91 million. During the 3rd quarter, MEMC Electronics finalized its $5-$6 billion solar wafer agreement with Suntech. As part of the agreement, the company received a warrant to purchase up to a 4.9% equity stake in Suntech. Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC's CEO, reports cash and short-term investments of over $450 million. MEMC will receive $2.5 billion to $3 billion in revenue from sales of the wafers over the 10-year period from Taiwan's Gintech Energy (solar). MEMC also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent interest in Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel of land of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located within the Hsinchu Science Park. Buy rating and $54.00 price target at Jefferies. You can listen to it at the company's 4Q conference call from Thursday, January 25, 2007 at www.memc.com.

NetGear

No

NTGR

$12.42

$27.93

$30.01

$16.64

+124%

Watch Natalie Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online for a price of $249.99. Skype currently has over 133 million registered users, and the NetGear phone is one of the first Skype Wifi phones. An October report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by 2010. Judges from the IT Industry and CRN readers rated NETGEAR Best in Service and Support among crowded networking category that included companies worldwide with both voice and data legacies in Dec. 2005. According to CEO Patrick Lo, NetGear has 58 new products. Christine M. Gorjanc has been awarded the position of Chief Accounting Officer. $151.1 million in cash and short-term investments as of 10.26.06.

News Corp.

Vol. 2, iss. 10

Dividends

RISK: LOW

No

NWS

$15.88

$22.90

$23.84

$14.97

44%

Owns Owns Fox, MySpace and DirecTv. Read my vol. 3, iss. 9 article, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace." MySpace is now a Top 10 Global Internet Brand with over 153 million registered users, making it the 2nd fastest growing Internet site in the world. (eBay's Skype is #1!) American Idol is one of the most popular television shows of all-time, with revenue coming in even from text messaging! The finale with Taylor Hicks was the third most-watched event of `06 after the Super Bowl and Academy Awards. Rupert Murdoch has some talented, innovative leaders under his aegis, and they are hitting home profits. News Corp. has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0 billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly reinforces our view that repurchases of News Corporation shares are among the best uses of our cash in today's environment," according to Rupert. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss Sunshine and Napoleon Dynamite. Universal Music Group is suing Myspace, but previous hard stances against AOL, Yahoo and YouTube were settled once the companies agreed to pay royalties for the songs. MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson were our Executives of the Year in 2006. Read the article in vol. 3, iss. 1.

Opsware

See issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.

RISK: MEDIUM

No

OPSW

$1.80

$7.71

$9.90

$5.03

+343%

Has $91 million in cash on hand. Named to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious Technology Fast 50 Program for Silicon Valley on 10.26.06. It was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's share price. The company raised its full year revenue expectation to $102 million. "We reached the key milestone of non-GAAP profitability," said Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of Opsware Inc. "During Q2 we also shipped the Opsware System 6 suite, the most important release in our company's history." CFO Sharlene Abrams resigned on 7.12.06. New CFO is David F. Conte. Ms. Abrams is under SEC investigation for handling of options at her prior company, Mercury Interactive. Opsware automates the complete IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically discover, provision, patch, configure, secure, change, scale, audit, recover, consolidate, migrate, and reallocate servers, network devices and applications. Over 350 of the world's largest companies, outsourcers and government agencies use Opsware to deliver this new, automated model of IT. Opsware was Company of the Year in 2004. Read the article in vol. 1, iss. 44.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

Trading near 52-week low.

NataliePace.com's 2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.

RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH

No

OSIP

$36.86

$33.18

$43.17

$22.04

-10%

3Q earnings on Nov. 6th: reported total revenues of $74 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006, an increase of $40 million (or 118%) compared to revenues of $34 million for the same period last year. Net loss was $21.3 million. Genetic based "cancer pill." Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer. Industry sales data has placed the cancer drug market's value at more than $20 billion annually and it is growing fast. According to Jan. 10 annual report by Genentech (OSIP's partner on Tarceva), Tarceva is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $402 million in 2006. Announced annual earnings last year on 3.16.06.

Sirius

$6.3 Bil Market Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SIRI

$3.85

$3.74

$6.45

$3.50

-3%

Announced 3Q on Nov. 8, 2006. Total revenue increased 150% year- over-year to $167.1 million for third quarter 2006, reflecting nearly three million new subscribers added in the last twelve months. SIRIUS ended the third quarter with 5,119,308 subscribers. For the fourth consecutive quarter, SIRIUS led the satellite radio industry in net subscriber additions, capturing a record 61% of total satellite radio net additions in the third quarter. SIRIUS reported a net loss of ($162.9) million, or ($0.12) per share, for the third quarter of 2006 compared with a net loss of ($180.4) million last year. The Stiletto handheld (iPod-like SR device) is here, but it's not taking market share from other handheld devices yet. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues. Has had negative impact on XM. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard on 2/3rds of 2007 cars. SIRI has deals with Ford, MBZ, Jeep, Dodge, BMW, VW, Audi and Rolls-Royce. SIRI paid out 22,058,824 million shares of common stock, valued at approximately $82.9 million, on 1.9.07 to Howard Stern and affiliates for beating subscriber growth projections by 2 million. Sirius ended 2006 with approximately 6,024,000 subscribers. Originally XM projected 9 million subscribers by year's end, but the company ended the year with only 7.625 million subscribers, adding only 1.695 million subscribers in 2006, compared to SIRI's record 2.7 million subscriber additions. SIRI Cash at the end of the 3Q: $317,876 million. CEO Mel Karmazin is now focused on "achieving positive free cash flow." With the banner growth year of 2006 and the stars Karmazin has in his network, achieving free cash flow isn't a given, but it is appropriate timing in the growth cycle of this emerging industry. It's goint to be hard to attract investors while Sirius continues to lose money, no matter how many people subscribe to the service.

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

918.7 Mil Market Cap

RISK: HIGH

No

SOHU

$17.52

$26.03

$29.43

$14.25

+50%

See NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Financial Times ranked Sohu in the Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6 days after our first feature article). Sohu was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. See Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview on the Forbes.com Video Network, and, separately, in our January 2007 ezine. Could be some bumps in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it. Dr. Charles Zhang is one of our CEOs of 2007. Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1.

SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)

No

STP

$25.83

$36.22

$45.95

$19.00

+40%

See vol. 4, iss. 1 for our Company of the Year article, which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for our article on solar energy. Suntech is inspiring a slew of Chinese solar company IPOs, with LDK Solar, Yingli Solar, Trin Solar and Linyang solar planning to launch a US IPO in the near future, according to Reuters (10.02.06). Beat analysts' expectations of $151.61 million in revenues. 3Q earnings (11.20.06): Third quarter total net revenue was up 27.2% sequentially and 187.8% year-over-year to $163.0 million. Net income for the same quarter of $28.7 million, or $0.19 per diluted American Depository Share (ADS). STP and the University of New South Wales signed a new $1.2 million collaborative research agreement through 2007 with a $3 million extension through 2010. Suntech will supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world's largest solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy a lot of buzz around that over the next 18 months. ''I am very pleased that our team has yet again proven that Suntech is the industry leader in combining world class R&D advancements with high quality products while maintaining the lowest cost per watt solution, bringing us one large step closer to being the first solar manufacturer to reach grid parity,'' CEO Shi said, commenting on the development of "semiconductor finger technology." Dr. Shi is one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

See vol. 2, iss. 8

No

TREMX

$20.72

$32.16

$33.14

$12.00

+55%

See vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France. International investing in the right sectors and countries pays off!

Time-Warner

(owns AOL)

No

TWX

$16.76

$21.82

$23.15

$15.70

+30%

See vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace" for a report card that features Time-Warner. AOL and Time-Warner have finally figured out how to work together, and Chairman & CEO Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn. After a series of blunders, could it be TWX's time to shine? AOL is now an advertising-supported business. Reports 4Q and full year on Jan. 31, 2007, before the market opens. Reported 3Q results on 11.1.06: Revenues rose 7% over the same period in 2005 to $10.9 billion, led by growth at the Cable and Networks segments. As of September 30, 2006, Net Debt totaled $32.2 billion, up $16.1 billion from $16.1 billion at the end of 2005, reflecting, among other items, the closing of the Adelphia and Comcast transactions as well as the Company's share repurchase program. $4 billion in free cash flow. From the inception of its stock repurchase program through October 31, 2006, the Company has repurchased approximately 770 million shares of common stock for approximately $13.4 billion. At existing price levels, the Company expects that it will purchase at least $15 billion of its common stock by the end of 2006 and the remainder of its $20 billion program in 2007. At AOL, Revenues declined 3% ($58 million) to $2.0 billion, due to a 13% decrease ($210 million) in Subscription revenues, offset in part by a 46% increase ($151 million) in Advertising revenues. Ron Grant was appointed President and COO of AOL LLC on November 21, 2006, by AOL's new Chairman and CEO Randy Falco. Grant has held senior positions on both sides of the aisle - at AOL and at Time-Warner, making him ideal for the job. Prior to being appointed Chairman and CEO of AOL, Mr. Falco was President and COO of the NBC Universal Television Group. Jonathan Miller's departure was unexpected, but the transition seems to be a smooth one. All internal communiqué awards Miller kudos for setting AOL on the right track prior to his departure, which is a huge leap forward compared to the internal squabbling that characterized TWX/AOL at the time of the merger. Wall Street approves and the stock prices have been up.

U.S. Gold

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$4.67 on

1.12.07

$4.95

$10.30

$.35

+6%

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network. Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, was awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award in 2006 by Canadian Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star Execs roundup." On Nov. 3, 2006, Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, and his wife Cheryl McEwen were honored by Tiffany & Co. with the 2006 Tiffany Mark Award. The Tiffany Mark Award honors men and women who are making their "mark" professionally and in their community through tireless efforts on behalf of charities and organizations they care about deeply. The McEwens are avid philanthropists, particularly in the field of medicine.

Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)

No

PBW

$16.82

$17.20

$24.08

$14.97

+3%

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises on the good or bad news of alternative energy companies which it may not even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year on bad news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply, even though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings on 1.12.07: SunPower, OM Group, Ballard, Energy Conversion Devices, SunTech, Ormat, Evergreen, Ormat and MEMC Electronic Materials.

Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell (NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains. Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains. Agilent was removed on 2.1.07 with flat performance. RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains on 2.1.07.

Recently removed from the Hot Stocks List:

Agilent (Green)

No

A

$32.69

$32.37

$39.54

$26.96

flat

The company's fourth quarter Return On Invested Capital was 29% -- a new high. 2006 net income of $3,307 billion, includes $1,816 billion income gains from selling off their semiconductor business. Agilent is still in restructuring mode. We're too impatient to wait. This company was removed on 2.1.007.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Read Vol. 2, Iss. 7

RISK: MEDIUM

No

LVS

$37.43

$89.48

(price 12.29.06)

$104.79 (1.26.07)

$106.90

$29.08

+139%

Read "Company of the Year" article in vol. 4, iss 1 and Viva Las Vegas! From vol. 2, iss. 7 for reasons why LVS was added to the hot list in July 2005, and then taken off of the Hot News list, effective 1.1.07. LVS has a high price to earnings ratio (at 84.00), high debt (with a debt equity ratio of 2.0) and the loosest insider selling (at $223 million in the last six months). Too bad the slot machines at the Sands and Venetian aren't cashing out $223 million for Las Vegas and Macao casino visitors, instead of lining the pockets of Las Vegas Sands executive insiders. Insider selling of this magnitude, right at the time when the company is under pressure to finalize the terms of their proposed building of "Asia's Las Vegas" in Macao smells fishier than the Hong Kong harbor. This is further exacerbated by the many reports I've received from Chinese economists and investors who confirm that the government officials have intentionally slowed the pace of foreign companies building in China and Chinese provinces, like Hong Kong and Macao. A key disclosure in Las Vegas Sands' November 9, 2006 earnings report convinced us to take Las Vegas Sands off of the Hot News list this month as well. According to the quarterly earnings report, "The Company does not have all the necessary Macao government approvals that are needed in order to develop the Cotai Strip developments." 139% gains since we first featured the company in July of 2005 works great for us, even if the stock closed at $103.74 on 1.12.07. Incidentally, for those willing to risk for more upside, Dr. Marc Miles, global strategist, advises that: "The Chinese government gets significant revenues from those gambling ventures. It also sees them as a way for the new middle class to spend their money internally." Even so, that doesn't mean the permits continue to go to LVS, especially since the legacy casino operator in Macao prior to the entry of U.S. capital, was an Asian, and he had a monopoly there.

RELM wireless

10.70 P/E

Micro Cap

88.73 Million

RISK: HIGH

No

RWC

$7.35

$6.00 on 12.30.06

$6.19

$11.70

$1.90

+3%

Added to the Russell Microcap Index on 6.30.06. According to Feltl & Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM has just 1% share of a domestic market worth $1.9 billion (and the global market is eight times larger), so there is plenty of room for growth. In addition to providing communications for national security needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines and chemical plants. The United States Postal Service Extended its Exclusive Contract with RELM Wireless on 7.13.2006. RELM announced 3Q earnings on 11.2.06. Sales increased approximately 20.7% to $9.2 million from $7.6 million for the same quarter last year. Net income for the third quarter was $1.1 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.2 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, for the same quarter last year.

Rio Tinto (ADR)

Based in England

DIVIDENDS!

See issue 48

RISK: LOW

No

RTP

 

$89.60

$219.45

(price 1.26.07: $211.66)

$253.33

$114.90

+145%

Building permits are down worldwide, and there are reports that China is pulling back on its rapid urban expansion. Additionally, there are currency considerations in Australia, where Rio Tinto does a great deal of its business. Rio Tinto has definitely been the star of the metals sector since we first featured the company, back in August of 2004, but the insatiable demand for copper and metals was tied to the low interest rates in the US (fueling construction) and the pro-expansion policies in China. With both of those reversing, it seems like the high and the thrill may be nearing their peaks. Even with the year-end Santa Rally going and the Dow at an all-time high, on November 10, 2006, copper futures plunged to a 4 ý month low. "It's not unusual to see copper supplies increase on a seasonal basis, but the steady nature of the increases of 2,000 to 3,000 tons over the last few weeks has eroded support in the market," said Dan Vaught, a futures analyst at AG Edwards. Rio Tinto PLC, the world's second-largest miner, said on 10.18.06 that third-quarter refined copper production fell 15 percent after the company shut down a smelter at a mine in Utah.

Stocks to Watch
Great Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better price), if you believe the news on future potential. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

1.26.07

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Advanced Micro Devices

No

AMD

$16.22

$16.22

$42.70

$12.10

--

On January 11, 2007, Advanced Micro Devices warned that, "The fourth quarter gross margin and operating income were impacted by significantly lower microprocessor average selling prices, which largely offset a significant increase in unit sales." Investors punished the company, pushing the price near its 52-week low. For anyone who has been waiting for an opportunity to buy Advanced Micro Devices, it has been rare to find the stock trading under $20 for any length of time for the past two years. But is it a buy? Or is the pricing pressure of competing with Intel simply too much for sustained profits? Some analysts are expecting new chips for PCs and servers to help AMD get back on track. 4Q earnings will be announced on January 23, 2007, and it's hard to imagine that investors will be more excited hearing about the fall-off in earnings at that time. Full year earnings should be released at the end of February. Again, with 2006 expected to come in less than the year prior, it's hard to make a case for a buy. Advanced Micro Devices has proven themselves to make and distribute great chips, but the next few months is going to be more about getting kicked around, until there is good news on the product and earnings front. The next product release is the Barcelona chip, expected mid-year.

Goldcorp

No

GG

$22.73

$27.30

$41.66

$17.49

+20%

Gold dropped to $573/$580 range on 9.15.06 causing losses for most gold mining stocks. Any troubles in the already tight metals market, or investor panic over inflation and terrorism could send gold prices even higher than they currently are (which has been happening all year). This has traditionally been one of the best performing gold companies. The Glamis M&A went through on 11.13.06. Gold was back up to $635 on 11.29.06 and traded for $617 on 12.17.06. As you can see from the 52-week high, it's not an unreasonable price.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$28.34

$30.60

$31.39

$21.45

+8%

World's largest software company. $31 billion in cash. Launched Zune on Nov. 14, 2006 to compete with iPod, but iPod sales are at No. 1 & 2 slots on Amazon's bestsellers list with a 4 star rating (out of 5 possible), whereas Zune weighs in at 55, with an average customer review of 3 stars. Great blue chip for your long term portfolio. Trading at a 52-week high, so waiting for a better buy-in opportunity might yield better returns.

Cooling Off Stocks List:

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
Toll Brothers

Cooling Off Stocks (that may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price). Note: We may look to add some of these companies to our Hot News list again, if the price point should become attractive and if the outlook for the company improves. The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a continued decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note, that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 1.26.07

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

American Airlines

No

AMR

$24.05

$29.06 (11.13)

$36.53

$38.10

$18.24

+52%

Don't buy into the hype that airlines are "doing better." Read the article, "$72 Oil Will Sink Airlines," in vol. 3, issue 7. American Airlines' financial obligations surpass $17 billion, including $5.4 billion owed to pension plans and other post retirement benefits (which is close to AMR's market value). American Airlines has such a strong brand, and so few investors are aware of the depth of their debt, that AMR tends to run up on any good news in the sector. It's not a slam-dunk short or put, until the unions renegotiate their contracts (in 2008?) because the Feds are not going to let every legacy airline in the U.S. go down. Competition from low-cost carriers and competitors that have gained cost advantages through the bankruptcy reorganization process remains a significant challenge.

Fannie Mae

No

FNM

$60.38

$55.69

$62.37

$45.93

-8%

Spending $1 billion on accounting fees related to the accounting scandal. Fannie Mae also said it would miss a regulatory deadline Wednesday for filing its financial report for the third quarter of 2006. The company hasn't filed an earnings statement since late 2004, and the NYSE has given FNM a deadline of 3.15.07 to file the 2005 annual report. If it fails to file the report, the company could be delisted. And yet investors are still in to the tune of $58.44 billionÉ. Are you? Better check your mutual funds. According to the AP, "Maintaining strong asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie Mae, given the recent weakening of housing values from the very strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard and Poor's has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae.

General Motors

Yes

GM

$32.35

$34.67 (11.13)

$32.93

$37.34

$18.33

Flat

See the article "Faded Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. According to Standard and Poor's Report on Pension Plans (6.06), GM owes -$50 billion in pensions and other post employment benefits (OPEB). General Motors' market capitalization is $19.85 billion, and last year the company lost over $10.95 billion. With a debt equity ratio of 3.85, most investors are probably unaware of the fact that GM has financial obligations that exceed the value of the corporation by over 4 times. For more information, please read the "Wow Dow! Or NASDAQ Now?" article, in vol. 3, iss. 11.

KB Home

No

KBH

$59.00

$50.98

$81.99

$37.89

-13.6%

Chairman and CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating options. He'll repay $13 million to the company, however, his retirement package has not been negotiated, meaning that his golden parachute could far exceed the $13 million. Additionally, Karatz cashed out over $100 million in stock over the last two years. KBH missed filing 4Q report on time, due to SEC investigation into stock options. KBH will have to restate results for fiscal 2005, as well as the first two quarters of 2006, as a result of the incorrectly reported stock option grants. Moody's Investor Service has placed KBH on review status for a possible downgrade. The concerns are: getting the 4Q earnings filed before 12.31.06 (didn't happen) and maintaining liquidity in the face of a weak housing market and being forced to repay debt obligations. KBH's debt/equity ratio is 1.20. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. President and CEO Jeff Mezger has issued two press releases in January 2007, one talking about Martha Stewart homes in Florida and the other about promotions within the company. No update on when the earnings reports will be filed, or how the delay may or may not annoy bondholders.

LifeCell

Vol. 1, iss. 55

No

LIFC

$31.06

$23.98

$32.60

$15.11

-22.7%

The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q Ô05 to reflect the recall. LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing rapidly, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not over. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. LifeCell has set up a testing program for anyone who received the BTS donor tissue. LifeCell has been named in "several" lawsuits related to this matter, according to the earnings report filed on 10.26.2006. "There can be no assurance that the level of insurance maintained will be sufficient to cover the claims or that the all of the claims will be covered by the terms of any insurance." There has been at least $15.5 million in insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months. LifeCell has a great product in high demand, but the potential fallout of the unscreened human tissue could be more than most small capitalization companies can take. According to preliminary year-end results, issued on Jan. 8, 2007, Preliminary product revenues for full-year 2006 were $140.5 million, up 51% compared to $93.3 million in 2005. Last year's annual report was released on March 8, 2006. .

Toll Brothers

No

TOL

$37.82

$32.43

$46.39

$22.22

-14%

4Q earnings on 12.5.06: Net income was $173.8 million, or $1.07 per share, compared with $310.3 million, or $1.84 per share, last year. According to the earnings press release, "A higher-than-expected number of buyers canceled their orders in the latest quarter, and the company incurred costs from walking away from some land it had optioned, or acquired a right to buy." According to analysts, builders are slashing prices to attract buyers. That is different than "stabilization" of the real estate market, as it weighs on profit margins. According to the National Association of Realtors, the median price for a home sold dropped by 3.5 percent from a year ago, the largest year-over-year drop on record. The number of contracts signed in Florida and the Carolinas fell by 78%. Full year earnings are projected to be in a range of $260 million to $340 million, or $1.58 to $2.08 per share. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. Insider Bruce Toll sold another $41 million in the last quarter of 2006.

The following companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06. Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). (The cooling off list anticipates that a company will lose share price value.)

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Wednesday, January 31st, 2007
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