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Vol.4 Issue 6 June 1st, 2007
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Quote of the Month:
"When war ends, there is a very rapid recovery. As long as people retain the knowledge and skills they had before the war, there are good business opportunities directly after a war."

Dr. Gary Becker,
Nobel Laureate, Economics
University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor,
Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago.


Peace = Prosperity.

by Natalie Pace.

Q&A with Dr. Gary Becker, esteemed University of Chicago economist and Nobel Laureate, on how freedom, democracy, war, terrorism, riots and gangs affect a nation's prosperity.

Peace Activists John Lennon and Yoko Ono in Greenwich, CT 1973. Photo Reprinted by Permission of: Bob Gruen. BobGruen.com.

When perusing the 2007 Index of Economic Freedom, there is one thing that strikes you. There is very little correlation between how "free" a county is and what it's Gross Domestic Product growth will look like. China and India, ranked 119th and 104th out of 157 countries, and evaluated as "mostly unfree," have some of the highest GDP growth rates in the world, at 10.1% and 8.1% respectively, in 2004. Meanwhile, "free" countries, like the United Kingdom (#6) and Australia (#3) have moderate growth, at 3.1% and 3.6% GDP growth rates in 2004. The real GDP growth rate of the U.S. in 2007 is predicted to be 2.9% (source: U.S. Treasury Dept.)

 

According to renowned economist and Nobel Laureate Dr. Gary Becker, who spoke at the 2007 Milken Global Conference in April, there is almost zero correlation between political systems and GDP growth rate. China and India are not exceptional; there are many other examples of countries that grew very rapidly under non-democratic political systems or military regimes. For instance, Chile grew rapidly under Pinochet. South Korea and Taiwan grew rapidly under military regimes.

 

While there is no measurable correlation between political systems and growth rates, according to Dr. Becker, there is significant causation between prosperity and democracy. Dr. Becker says, "Look at the examples I mentioned, Chile, South Korea and Taiwan. All of these counties grew rapidly under non-democratic regimes and converted to thriving democracies. When countries grow significantly, there are strong pressures within the country to move to a more democratic regime."

As a modern example of that continued trend, Dr. Becker noted that China has made important moves in the direction of freedom. The Chinese people today are free to say and do things that they would never have been able to say or do 15 years ago. Dr. Becker predicts that China will continue to experience growth, as well as the evolution toward a more free and open economy.

And indeed, China has made strong moves recently to open up its banking to foreign investment. Citigroup announced on May 10, 2007, that Citigroup China would roll-out two new investment products -- Structured Investment Accounts -- for the Chinese consumer that would allow him/her to invest in equities or currencies, with a principal protection feature. Just a few years ago, all banks in China were state-owned enterprises.

China owns half a trillion dollars of investments in U.S. T-Bills -- $479 billion -- but the government is also developing an appetite for U.S. equity (source: Treasury Department). On May 21, 2007, it was announced that the Chinese government is buying a $3 billion non-voting, minority stake in the Blackstone Group, a private equity group. Lou Jiwei, head of the working group of the State Investment Company, said "We are very pleased to be able to make the State Investment Company's first investment in such a well-respected firm as Blackstone." (Blackstone just bought Equity Office Properties and has filed plans to go public in an Initial Public Offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission.)

Editor's Note: For more insight into "China's Evolution Toward Freedom," including how and why it is occurring, read Natalie Pace's Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang, Chairman and CEO, Sohu.com. Dr. Zhang is one of the most respected Chairman/CEOs in mainland China, as well as in the U.S. You can read the article in the archived NataliePace.com ezine, vol. 4, issue 1.

Another phenomenon worth looking into is the relationship between peace and prosperity. South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are historic examples of economies that soared after a period of war, a trend that seems to be repeating today in the former war-torn regions of Bosnia, Croatia and Albania. According to the 2007 Index of Economic Freedom, Eastern Europe is also experiencing some of the strongest economic growth rates in the world today. (By the way: Notice how closely correlated the tax rate is with GDP growth rates.)

Country

GDP Growth Rate in 2004

Freedom Ranking

Tax Rate

Albania

5.9%

Moderately free. #66

20%

The Czech Republic

4.7%

Mostly free. #31

24%-32%

Estonia

7.8%

Mostly Free. #12

23%

Slovenia

4.2%

Mostly free. #58

25-50%

Peace and Prosperity
Do the seeds of prosperity thrive in the aftermath of war? If prosperity seeds the ground for democracy, what fertilizes the soil for prosperity? Is it peace? What is the cost of violence on society? Why does a country like Albania experience great growth in the aftermath of war, whereas an area like South Central Los Angeles is still largely neglected by big business, 15 years after the 1992 Los Angeles riots?

How worried should we be about the threat of terrorism? Will the labor uprisings in Macao threaten the continued growth of that Chinese municipality and those companies, like Las Vegas Sands and Wynn, which have major investments in the island? How does an investor evaluate the ability of a former war-torn region (like Croatia) or a region hit by natural disaster (like New Orleans or Sri Lanka) to prosper once peace, security and rebuilding are initiated?

On Tuesday, April 24, 2007, I sat down with Dr. Gary Becker to discuss the relationship between prosperity and peace, riots, terrorism, natural disaster and more. Dr. Becker won his Nobel Laureate for expanding the study of economics to new areas of human behavior and relations. Throughout his esteemed career, Dr. Becker has immersed himself in the academics of prosperity - what conditions make countries and companies more conducive to productivity and growth. As you can see from his comments on democracy and economic growth, the findings are not always what you might think!

 

Natalie Pace: I'm interested in examining the relationship of peace to prosperity, Dr. Becker. The incredible growth that we've seen in the former war-torn region of Eastern Europe seems to indicate that peace seeds the ground for prosperity. Is there empirical evidence that countries thrive in peace?

Dr. Gary Becker: We've known that for over 150 years. The history of both natural and man-made disasters over the last century-and-a-half generally supports John Stewart Mill's observation of the "great rapidity with which countries recover from a state of devastation, the disappearance in a short time, of all traces of mischief done by earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and the ravages of war."

Is terrorism in a different category? War, hurricanes, earthquakes -they have a definitive end, whereas terrorism has become an ongoing threat.

Terrorism creates fear. After an attack on a bus, the response to terrorism is far greater than any reasonable response would dictate. People respond by not wanting to travel by bus, even if the likelihood that they'll be attacked is low. The less frequent the rider or the lower the education of the potential rider, the more likely s/he will respond by not wanting to travel.

Common sense tells you that it is hard to sell oranges in a marketplace that is under attack. Is there a risk quotient attached to investments in regions of conflict, like Israel or the Middle East?

Countries that are more vulnerable to violence have less opportunity for good business because property isn't safe.

What is the estimated cost of the Iraq War?

The estimated cost of the war in Iraq is $600-$800 billion so far and cumulative into the future, when you consider the ammunition, soldiers' lives, veteran's services, recruitment costs, etc.

No wonder Peter Orszag, Director, Congressional Budget Office, said that "the U.S. government is becoming a health insurance firm with a side business in defense." Why do some countries and neighborhoods recover more quickly after war and riots? Civic leaders in South Central Los Angeles are still complaining that the neighborhood was never rehabilitated after the 1992 Los Angeles Riots, and progress in Afghanistan has been slow.

Drugs destroy a lot of neighborhoods. Neighborhoods with a history of violence make it very hard for peaceful business to thrive. After a riot, it is very hard to recover.

Why is it so hard to attract business into gang areas?

You can just go live and do business in another less violent neighborhood.

Is that similar to what we are seeing now in the migration from Western to Eastern Europe? There are riots occurring in France, which has a GDP growth rate of 2.1%, and companies are relocating to Eastern Europe, where some countries are growing at three times that of France. Young people are willing to work harder for less pay in Estonia, which is experiencing 7.8% growth rate.

The principle is the same. With the formation of the European Union, you can move across the borders.

In our global economy, would your research suggest that the brightest and most motivated individuals will leave the violent war-torn regions, and seek work in the more peaceful, free community with the most developed property rights and stability?

Yes.

So -- bottom line -- peace is good for business, right?

When war ends, there is a very rapid recovery. As long as people retain the knowledge and skills they had before the war, there are good business opportunities directly after a war.

 

Dr. Becker is the University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his website and blog. To hear more of his recommendations for strengthening the U.S. economy, listen to his panels from the 2007 Milken Global Economic Conference. To read more of his insights on how communities can transform to prosperity out of violence and/or disaster, read The Economics of Disaster Management in the June NataliePace.com ezine.


Golf Carts and Sports Cars: California EVs from A to Z.

by Natalie Pace.

Some drive like a Ferrari and others, well, might need a push uphill.

Includes an Electric Car Report Card.

"With every major candidate for president supporting this critical issue [of clean technology], the future looks bright for solar, electric cars, and alternative fuels." Steve Westly, former California State Controller and CEO of The Westly Group, a venture advisory firm that helps entrepreneurs build the clean technology companies of the future.

On February 23, 2007, President George W. Bush laid out a plan for developing alternative fuel and reducing gasoline usage by 20 percent over a 10-year period, and called upon Congress to fund his alterative energy proposal. The President said, "Americans ought to feel optimistic about our future. We're going to be driving our cars using all kinds of different fuels other than gasoline, and using batteries that will be able to be recharged in vehicles that don't have to look like golf carts."

And indeed the next generation of electric cars -- specifically the Tesla Roadster -- is sexy enough to be the car of choice for the next Bond film. The Tesla sports car is receiving rave reviews from Forbes, from Vanity Fair, CBS, Nightline and more. Celebrities like George Clooney, the founders of Google, and others have plunked down $92,000 each to pre-order the first cars off the production line.

But how are the other electric car companies faring? Is there any other launch out there to rival the Tesla roadster? The Zap-X sure looks appealing, but there's nothing like a test drive to put a pretty picture in perspective. When I lined up for a test drive of the Zap! car at the Alternative Fuels and Vehicles National Conference in Anaheim on April 1, 2007, I expected to slide behind the wheel of a sleek, sexy sports car (the Zap-X) with a top speed of 155 mph that could go 350 miles on one 10-minute charge. What pulled up instead was a 3-wheeled micro-truck that drove like a golf cart, had a top speed of 40 miles per hour (and felt like it would fall apart if it went any faster) and lasted only 25 miles on a charge. And then it struck me. Zap! Where had I heard that name before?

The Zap-X, a high performance electric vehicle (to be) designed by Lotus Engineering and Zap! This vehicle is "coming soon," according to the ZapWorld.com website.

Back in 2001, the year before Zap! declared bankruptcy (it has since restructured and emerged to do business again) my family and I had rented Zappys, the company's electric motor scooter, to tool around the San Francisco harbor. The scooter couldn't go up inclines at all, and the battery charge lasted under an hour. As a result, we really pushed our bikes more than we rode them. When the vision of Zappy's on every porch didn't play out before the money ran out for the company in 2002, I wasn't surprised.

While the car looks great and the website and press releases make it sound like it will become a reality, I'm a bit skeptical that the company that presented the Zappy motor scooter and the 3-wheeled Xebra (golf cart) can suddenly transform itself into a luxury electric car company.

ZAAP is a public company that is currently traded off the big boards, where companies that don't meet the criteria necessary to trade on the NASDAQ, American or New York Stock Exchanges. Press releases tout a $79 million order for Zap! electric cars from The Electric Vehicle Company, a Chicago-based startup, which means that Zap! should have the cash-flow to continue operations in 2007, by shipping just 5,000-8,000 cars from their existing product line.

Investors should beware, however, that, according to the quarterly earnings report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 15, 2007, Zap's cash on hand was just $2.6 million on March 31, 2007. That's alarmingly low for a company that lost -$14.8 million in the quarter that ended March 31, 2007, and posted only $1.1 million in net sales for the same period. Additionally, judging from Zap's low-profile presence and placement at the alternative Fuels and Vehicles Conference, it's fair to say that the company didn't break the bank to create a favorable impression there. Nevertheless, Zap! is already taking pre-orders for the Zap-X, with a down payment of $25,000, even though there isn't an official launch date for the Zap-X and the company spokesman couldn't confirm that the battery supplier had been secured.

After my sobering test drive of the ZapTruck, I had low expectations of the Phoenix Motor Cars' Sports Utility Truck. Phoenix Motor Cars claim that their SUT can go zero to 60 in ten seconds and hit 95 mph. I assumed Bryon Bliss, the Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Phoenix Motor Cars, would blow a lot of hot air about how those specs were what they hoped to achieve, as we putt-putted along in some jalopy that frankly could be a hazard on roads with aggressive Southern California drivers.

So, without really worrying that the truck could do all that much, I asked if I could test the pickup, punched the gas, and gasped as the torque flattened me into the back of my seat.

At last! An electric vehicle with some testosterone! Okay. So the Phoenix SUT flies. And it's sturdy enough to be a real truck (though, like all electric cars, it sounds eerily silent). The charge must last for what, a few minutes?

Turns out, thanks to the lithium ion battery innovations at Altairnano, one charge can get you 130 miles - certainly as far as most commuters need to go in a day. And Phoenix Motor Cars boasts that the battery can be recharged in just 10 minutes. According to Mr. Bliss, PG&E is currently working on multiple site locations for public rapid charges in the cities of Davis, San Francisco, Fresno, and more. In the meantime, before electric rapid plug-ins are available nationwide, the SUT can be recharged in your garage in 5 to 6 hours out of a 220V dryer outlet at a cost of approximately $3 in electricity, according to Mr. Bliss.

At a price of $45,000, the Phoenix SUT is affordable enough to attract some forward-thinking, green fleet buyers, as well as a few consumers. (Click on fleet buyers and consumers to jump to the Phoenix website now to place your order). Bloggers are heaping praise on the SUT, and many claim to want to be the first consumer to own one. Phoenix already has enough interest from fleet buyers to carry them into 2008. According to Mr. Bliss, Pacific Gas & Electric will be Phoenix's first fleet customer, accepting delivery this summer. Other companies showing interest include the City of Vacaville, City of Santa Monica, UCLA, Clark Pest Control and many others. Total documented interest to date stands at 209, with an additional 200 units waiting for DOT Certification to be completed in June 2007. Phoenix also has plans to develop an SUV.

Both the Phoenix Motor Cars SUT and the Tesla Roadster claim to have cracked a new code in technology, making the electric car fast, sleek and more convenient to refuel. Unfortunately, both companies are privately owned. The closest most people will get to investing in the companies themselves this early in the game will be to own one of the first cars/trucks available, at a price that's likely to be more expensive than consumers will pay in just a few years. However, some of the companies that supply batteries and parts for electric vehicles are publicly traded - and are looking at some serious order commitments in 2007 and going forward.

AltairNano tops the list of desirable companies in the electric car space with their new rapid charge lithium ion battery. Both Zap! and Phoenix spokespersons singled out AltairNano as the battery supplier of choice, with the difference being that Phoenix Motor Cars has an exclusive contract with Altair - providing they meet certain order benchmarks. (The battery in the Zap! Xebra falls far short of the planned specifications of the Zap-X.)

Altair is already pretty popular with investors, with a market value of $216 million. That market value makes Altair pricey, if you consider that 2006 sales were just $4.92 million and that the company posted a net loss of -$17.82 million last year. However, Phoenix Motor Cars has already made a purchase commitment of $4,075,000 for batteries in 2007, and is projected to continue purchasing throughout 2007 for a total of between $16 million and $42 million in orders. In order to retain exclusive rights on the Altairnano battery packs, Phoenix must order a minimum of $16 million in 2007. Based on the popularity of the Altairnano battery with the company executives at both Zap! and Phoenix Motor Cars, and the recent comments from General Motor's Chairman and CEO G. Richard Wagoner, Jr., who declares that GM is "significantly expanding and accelerating our commitment to the development of electrically driven vehicles," AltairNano should not have difficulty finding another suitor for its rapid charge lithium ion batteries should Phoenix Motor Cars be unable to live up to its contracted agreement.

Current customers of AltairNanotechnology include: Phoenix Motorcars (of which Altair has an equity interest), Department Of Energy, Western Oil Sands and University of Las Vegas Research Foundation. On March 5, 2007, The AES Corporation ("AES"), one of the world's largest global power companies, privately purchased 895,523 unregistered common shares of Altair at a price of $3.35 per share.

Back orders are not exclusive to AltairNano, however. Satcon Technology Corporation reports that, as of the end of April 2007, the sales order backlog topped $44 million, its highest level in the company's history, with continued strong growth in all areas but driven primarily by the solar inverter product line. Sales order bookings for April alone were over $8 million, including over $4 million for Photovoltaic Inverters. According to David Eisenhaure, President and Chief Executive Officer, "With our current sales order backlog at over $44 million at the end of April, we believe that we have the ability to achieve revenues on the order of $50 million for the year 2007, up from our actual revenue in 2006 of approximately $34 million. The majority of the increase in our revenue is expected to come from our photovoltaic inverter product line."

 

Another interesting company in the electric car sector is UQM Technologies. Altair formed a strategic alliance with UQM Technologies in February of 2007. According to Altair, the alliance pairs UQM's electric motor, power generator and power electronic products that are small, lightweight, highly efficient, and offer high torque and high speed in a single package, with Altairnano's NanoSafe battery packs that are safe, possess rapid charge and discharge rates, have exceptional performance at high and low temperature extremes and exhibit long cycle life. UQM reported fourth quarter and full year financial results on May 17, 2007. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2007, UQM reported a loss of -$3,402,566 on total revenue of $6,653,194 versus a loss of -$2,757,386 on total revenue of $4,322,566 last fiscal year, for a growth rate of 54%. With added emphasis on electric cars from President Bush, the Chairman and CEO of General Motors and Americans and Canadians looking to save the world, we believe this growth rate could be the tip of the iceberg.

In short, of the five companies listed on the attached Electric Car Stock Report Card, we have added three companies - Altair NanoTecnology, Satcon and UQM -- that are posting solid growth this year in sales and profitability to our Hot News on Cool Stocks list this month. Click on Electric Car Stock Report Card to see a lineup of the numbers of each company, including P/E (all have negative earnings), sales, income, market capitalization, debt, etc.

Valence and Zap! will not be added to the Hot News on Cool Stocks list.

At December 31, 2006, Valence's principal sources of liquidity were cash and cash equivalents of $1.88 million. In the SEC filing of February 28, 2007, the Company disclosed that it expects its sources of liquidity will not be sufficient for the remaining fiscal year. VLNC will announce earnings on 6/13/2007. The company appointed Robert L. Kanode as Chief Executive Officer and President on March 14, 2007.

Full Disclosure: At press time, Natalie Pace did not own any positions in the companies mentioned in this article.

DISCLAIMER: Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Will You Get Rich or Reamed in Real Estate?

Q&A with Steve Dietrich, real estate consultant and developer, and president of Financial Research Group. FRG's clients like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, USA Petroleum and more.

The Ray Kappe “Living Home” was awarded a Platinum LEED rating. LivingHomes.Net.

On May 23, 2007, NataliePace.com subscribers were treated to an online chat with Mr. Dietrich. Read below to learn Mr. Deitrich's thoughts on investing in real estate, luxury condos, the low national savings rate and how future trends for property insurance and mortgage lending can affect your ability to refinance when your hybrid loan becomes due.

QUESTION: What is going on with real estate? Everyone is saying that it's falling off, but the prices haven't trimmed back too much in my area.

Steve Dietrich: I was somewhat surprised last night. I have been hearing stories of cutbacks in new home production and especially in site acquisitions. However, after a limited sample of metropolitan areas on Zillow, much of the early year softness seems to be gone from the market. This is just a small sample from an unproven source, but, nonetheless educational. The attraction of Zillow.com is in its ability in most areas to make a guess as to the value of your home and perhaps more importantly to track trends in your neighborhood, zip, city and state. I checked 6-8 major metropolitan areas, and most of them all showed a dip in the early year with a flat recovery.

Do you think the "recovery" could be simply that we are entering into the strong summer season?

I think there are several factors at work - lots of money available for buyers with some equity, summer and scaling back of production.

There is still a sense/fear with some that real estate, though more expensive than most people can afford right now, will never be this cheap. There is a lot of demographic data to support that supply in free, wonderful countries like the U.S. and Canada will always be short of the demand. What is your feeling about Mark Twain's quote that you should "buy land; they aren't making any more of it!"?

I have lived through too many blowouts to believe that. However, home ownership usually reflects employment and personal savings.

Will you elaborate on that? We are at full employment, but at historically low savings rates. (It's important to realize that savings rates don't reflect the equity in one's home or the 401 k.) There has been a lot of stress on the average person's wallet, with gas prices doubling. While we're at full employment, salaries haven't increased measurably over the last 10 years.

We have strong employment, so a strong housing market is not surprising. I just think the days of 30% per year increases have ended. Our savings rates are awful, and if the old underwriting criteria were still used, the housing market would be much softer. I think in many markets the new immigrant families (both legal and illegal) are having an impact, as they have no problem putting several families in one single home.

What is going on for real estate in California? Is the San Francisco area as strong or weak as the Los Angeles area?

San Francisco was one of the areas that I did not look at. I believe it is pretty strong, and fully recovered from the dot com blowout.

What areas are the most vulnerable right now? At the Milken Global Conference last month, Robert Toll, the Chairman and CEO of Toll Brothers said that Michigan might be an area that never comes back. He was over-emphasizing his point, but it is not looking good there, is it?

The two issues that we look for are declining employment at the levels required for home ownership, and the ability to add inventory.

The major homebuilders like Lennar, Toll Brothers, KB Home, etc. all seem to have very low ratings on their stocks at moneycentral.msn.com. Do you foresee this low stock rating continuing for the rest of the year and well into 2008?

I am a developer guy, not a stock picker. I have a number of former graduate students who have gone to KB Home and Toll Brothers, and both are good organizations. They also learned from the late 1980s not to hold a lot of land.

In the long run, I think they will do well. One of the things that is frequently missed is how efficient these homebuilders are, and what a low gross profit margin they operate on. IT DOES NOT LEAVE A LOT OF ROOM FOR MISTAKES OR EVENTS.

What do you think of Las Vegas with populations expected to go to 4.5 million in less than 10 years? They expect to be able to get the necessary water, but it will be extremely expensive.

Lots of people, including lenders do not really appreciate the problem associated with developing high-rise condos. When the market is good, all is well, but if it turns bad, you are in a situation where you have to go forward, once you start. A single-family building might have only a few completed homes in inventory, but the high-rise condo builder builds the whole tract at once. I just wonder how many people are willing to live in high-rise condos in Vegas.

It is also sobering to recall that, until this cycle, a majority of the high-rise condos in Los Angeles, between Westwood and Beverly Hills, have ended up in receivership.

Is that why a lot of builders/developers pre-sell the condos?

You can take a lot of risk out of the process by presales, but you have to ask yourself if the buyer is going to close if the values are down more than his deposit. The presence of out-of-state investors only adds to the risk that production will overshoot demand.

Many high-rise buyers in Vegas are investors from out of state. There are a tremendous amount of new high-rise condos on the drawing board, and in construction in downtown San Francisco. One tower, the Watermark, seems to have a lot of foreign buyers, Asian and Indian. Do you see this as a new trend for buyers for these luxury tower condos? Do buyers of these luxury condos tend to be investors rather than homeowners who plan to live there?

GrassCamp, a legend in Real Estate, reminded that when you build a home, office or warehouse, it is not a thing but rather something that produces the opportunity to occupy space one day at a time. There is no way to shut it off except for demolition or abandonment. Once you've built it, the market is affected for the next 40 years. Think of an automated burger stand that produces 5000 burgers a day for 30 years. You either price burgers to sell or you have lost that day's production.

Back to the high rise condos, I think the long term Home Owner's Association dues will come as a surprise for many owners.

Watermark HOA dues are $675 month, not to mention property taxes and water costs. Also, although the labor market is strong in Vegas, do you think the employment growth can keep apace? As you've said, employment is a strong correlating factor with real estate increases. How many Vegas homes and condos are income investments? Don't those people scare and sell first? Robert Toll didn't sound very optimistic about Vegas last month, or Phoenix or Florida. He said, "Florida is death takes a holiday. Phoenix is like Indiana Jones, except he did go off the cliff."

The lurking giant in the closet is interest rate increases. For many people, the housing budget is maxed out. So interest rate increases will decrease the amount they can pay.

City Center will open next year with 6 high-end hotels, at least one condo tower and major shopping and restaurants. That will absorb part of the new employment requirements. I just don't think that incomes will support anything but the starter home. The rental market is soft. Unless you got in before the rise in the market, the investor is taking a loss. Do you have any advice on what markets will be hotter to buy in and what trends in real estate are going to be over the next few years? Would you advise staying with single-family homes rather than condos or townhouses?

I believe that in most markets, the condo is the higher risk property. Beyond the tactical, the key focus should be right-sizing the housing for the family unit in its current and anticipated needs. If you are going to be in a home for a long period, then being 10% smart on purchase price is irrelevant. You have a chance to get long term financing at bargain rates. So your occupancy cost is low. If you might have to sell in two years, you lose the benefit of the financing and have to deal with the market and the financing costs.

Over the years, the personal residence decision is the best people make because they vote with their needs - space, schools, government, noise, neighborhoods, etc.

What about property insurance? I have read that Allstate is not writing any more policies in California.

This is out of my area, but I think you may be seeing two things at work. Allstate may have too much exposure in CA. The computer marketing of insurance may be driving the profits down. The underwriters have gotten a lot better at catastrophic loss prediction. The cost to replace homes has increased significantly.

How could a condo in San Diego be at risk? Given the hurricanes, shouldn't property insurance cost more in Florida and other places? It doesn't seem that an owner could afford a vacancy long -- waiting for prices to rise again.

My understanding is that Allstate is not terminating existing policies. However, I do expect that most companies will be taking a more aggressive approach toward brush clearing. I'm not sure if the San Diego condo has earthquake insurance. The cheapest of all risk insurance is a 100% loan in a non-deficiency state. The loan could be thought of as a put option. If you have a loan at or above the value of the home, after it's restored, it doesn't make a lot of sense to pay the earthquake deductible.

Natalie's Note: We should note that REALTOR.org is a great resource for data and statistics on real estate -- a very reputable organization.

That is a great resource. Zillow.Com is becoming a great resource. And there are some really good surveys done for the local papers.

Do you know if buyers of luxury condos are investors or homeowners looking for luxury?

I am a spectator rather than a participant in that business. There is a lot of condo development in downtown Los Angeles, both new and conversions. There is speculation about whether they are skimming the market or developing a new market. The prices are amazing for an area where you can't walk at night.

Are they looking to turn the area around in Los Angeles, as they did in downtown Chicago and inside the 610 loop in Houston?

We've been told the great downtown recovery is a year or two away for the last 40 years. The area is attractive for singles and young couples, but the moment you have a child, you have to think of moving. Also, downtown is surrounded by more attractive places to live -- Hollywood, Beverly Hills and Santa Monica. Sadly, the Los Angeles Unified School District has huge problems not entirely of their own making that cause families to move to other districts or spend a lot of money on private schools. If you are paying $20,000 per child for school it needs to come from some part of the family budget. There are signs that many non-central city LAUSD schools are improving.

What does skimming the market mean?

Typically when a new product comes out, whether it is a computer, auto or article of clothing the first buyers pay a premium for the product, and once the supply and demand come into balance the price drops. While we think in real estate of the prices going up, in a case where the developer is skimming the market --because they are in a unique market -- the price might actually decline as supply comes up to meet the requirements of demand. That holds true of biotechnology. With almost any new product, really, the first people in pay a premium.

Natalie's Note: Tesla Motors would be an example, right? $92,000 for the first electric sports car, which they are hoping will spark innovation for technologies that can be adapted for a less expensive mass-produced carÉ

I am putting in an offer on a residential property in Colorado. Expecting to break even monthly. Appreciation has been 5-7% over the last years. I'm considering an interest-only loan to make cash flow better. Any advice?

Good question. Without knowing anything about the market, it sounds like you have structured conservative financing. Half of winning the real estate game is being able to select the exit point. If you have to exit for financial reasons, it is usually the worst time.

In general, though, what is your advice for anyone looking to buy real estate right now?

Bold caution. Be sure you can afford what you buy.

Is this a good time to buy or are prices too high?

It's a challenging time to buy because prices appear to be dead out in many markets. You want to be sure that you can pick when to sell. If you can afford to hold it through foreseeably tough times, this may not be a bad time to invest, but with great caution.

If you're going to own only for 5-10 years, you cannot be 10% smart. You get low cost financing with a high cost home. It should work out if your home has the basic pillars of value - jobs, schools, public safety and good neighbors.

Real estate down cycles take longer to recover typically, than, say, the stock market. So are we saying a new buyer should plan on holding for seven years or more if s/he gets in now?

It could be a down cycle that hurts you, or just the point at which you're forced to sell when the rental market has gone soft, or if you have financing due but you can't replace it in the current market. We had this in the 1990s when sound property had loans that were due and there was simply no available financing to take out the lender. Some people were forced to sell. Some went into foreclosure and others were able to forestall that through bankruptcy, and wait long enough for the market to recover. The two issues are: 1) buying at a fair price, and 2) equally important being able to hold it through the difficult times.

 

Obviously this is a very hot topic, so we'll do our best to host Mr. Dietrich in the chat room again soon. Steve Dietrich will also be joining us for a special Q&A session at the Living the Rich Life Retreat June 18-21, 2007. For more information on how you can be just one of a few people in a board room learning how to invest directly from Natalie Pace (with a special Q&A with Steve Dietrich), go to NataliePace.com and click on the Living the Rich Life banner ad!

Steve Dietrich's wisdom is valued by many corporations, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and more. You can check out his work at FinancialResearchGroup.com.


Living the Rich Life Retreat:

An Exclusive, Intimate Opportunity to Transform Your Life with Natalie Pace, utilizing The Secret Tools of Investing, Wisdom and Wealth.

Imagine living the rich life NOW. You earn a great living, enjoy your job, have fun, exercise regularly, give back to your community, surround yourself with people and family who adore you, invest in stocks, bonds and real estate that earn a great return AND provide you with satisfaction of ownership, AND you are always learning more and adding more value to your own life and earning potential. No matter how far away from this vision you are, or where you feel bankrupt in your life, the rich life is yours for the taking NOW. It is simply a matter of investing your talents and energy on living the life of your dreams, instead of focusing on debt and complaining that you cannot do anything more than plod through the rat race.

This 4-day Living the Rich Life retreat is designed to focus you on the proactive skills, habits, mindset and mastery of success, health, wealth and happiness. You will learn how to cook up profits with an easy to use 3-Step Investing Recipe. This strategy outlines, step-by-step, how to use Stock Report Cards, consumer information, online research and simple buy low-sell high strategies to achieve superior gains in the stock market. You will learn how to budget for fun, education, investing and charity, instead of bankrupting your budget solely on basic needs.

What is keeping you from living the life of your dreams? Are you overwhelmed by debt? Are you a fantastic earner who feels chained to an 80-hour workweek and is seeing signs of distress in your health, family and personal life? Are you a mother who has not had a moment to herself in years? Do you think winning the lottery will solve everything? Why not try a week at the beach, surrounded by a dozen others who are proactively immersing themselves in the principles and tools of success and happiness now today?

You will live like royalty for four days of transformational reprogramming and investing strategies with one of the most respected and successful stock pros on Wall Street. Since the inception of her stock newsletter, going into the 8th year, the companies featured on NataliePace.com are earning 31 percent annualized (that is 31 cents on the dollar every year), according to TipsTraders.com, which puts Natalie Pace at the top of over 830 A-list pundits. The investment club that she founded doubled their money by the time Natalie cashed out (from 2002 to April 2004). During this retreat, you will be immersed in easy-to-do investment strategies (which work for all investments) and learn secrets for evaluating breakout stocks that are poised for outstanding returns.

This intimate, intensive, exclusive, educational, rewarding and FUN experience will be limited to just 12 people, and will take place in a 4-star oceanfront hotel in Santa Monica, California. The retreat will also include an evening at Agape International, the sanctuary of Reverend Michael Bernard Beckwith. (He was one of the stars of The Secret!)

If you think you must pay down debt before you can start living and investing, you will remain miserable. The rich life requires healthy, daily fiscal habits. Do you think it is easier for a billionaire to save/invest $100,000,000, than it is for you to set aside $1,000? Get the proportions in line, and you will find your money going farther, your income increasing, your smiles more frequent and your circle of powerful, successful friends plentiful. Start by aligning yourself with 12 other people who want exactly the same thing that you want, the life of their dreams!

The Rich Life Retreat is being offered for the first time ever, and there is no guarantee that it will be offered again in such an intimate setting. Be sure to sign up as one of only 12 lucky individuals now. (There are only a few spots left! Email now!) Reply to this email NOW to register before the opportunity is sold out.

Dates: June 18-June 21, 2007.
Early Bird Registration Cost (if registration occurs before June 2, 2007): $1755.00
Cost if you register after June 2, 2007: $2055.00

SPECIAL DISCOUNT OFFER: REFER TO THE PROMO CODE: "I AM, I HAVE, I CAN!" to receive $300 off of your price!
(Payment in full is due upon registration. Because this is a limited opportunity, charges are Non-Refundable.)

Accommodations:
Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel
City View: $299 a night
Partial Ocean View: $339 a night
Full Ocean View: $359 a night

You can have your own room, or share a room if you desire. The rate holds true for single or double occupancy. You might even consider adding a few days over the weekend for your own special time in one of the most exciting cities in the U.S. -- Santa Monica! For tips on other things to do and great places to visit, click on Santa Monica, or go to the archived ezine vol. 4, issue 3, from March 2007, and read the article, "Spring Break in Santa Monica, California. 10 Tricks to Living the Rich Life in Tinsel Town's Beach Community -- on Any Budget."

 

Private Consultations/Coaching with Natalie Pace: Natalie will be available for private coaching sessions on Friday afternoon after the retreat. So, consider adding an hour consultation one-on-one with Natalie. (Regular cost of the coaching is $500/hour. Attendees will receive half off the normal hourly rate.)

Email now!
Heather
P.O. Box 1350
Santa Monica, CA 90406
866.476.7442 (toll-free number)

What You Will Learn:  
Investing:
 Google, MySpace, China and Eastern Europe - we found these investments first!  Learn different strategies for your Nest Egg vs. your Stocks on Steroids portfolio, and why your home is more than just an investment - it is a lifestyle choice and where you enrich and feed your soul.  Practice the NataliePace.com trademarked 3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits.  It works in real estate, stocks, classic cars, postage stamps or Beanie Babies!    
Flow and Philanthropy: How circulating money and giving back comes back to you ten-fold  
The Budget of a Yogi:  The rich life is not about denying yourself café lattes. It is about putting a budget in place that places a value on investing, fun, philanthropy and education, instead of just focusing on the basic needs and coming up short on all of the other areas of your life.  When all of your time attention and money goes to the basics, you are not investing anything in fulfillment, in growth, in health, in empowerment or in your future. Get on track now.  
Business Principles: Networking and Building a Team.  How giving your partners ownership gives them a vested interest in promoting the success of your enterprise.
Venture Capital:  The truth about who gives you money and why. Learn why your best bet for growth capital is probably lying in your wallet, or in your inner circle.  
Living like royalty on a PriceLine budget:   Natalie has stayed at the Waldorf Astoria, one of the most luxurious hotels in the world, (located in New York City) for just $125 night. At a recent conference she attended, almost 700 people paid $300 night.  She paid $75 for a comparable hotel less than five minutes away. Learn her tricks and you can live like royalty when you travel, and no one will ever know the difference!  
 
What you will experience:
Dream visioning on the beach
(or in a beachfront hotel).  Santa Monica has over 300 days of sunshine, and your hotel overlooks the famous Santa Monica Pier!
Soul inspirations with the Agape community on Wednesday evening. Dr. Reverend Michael Bernard Beckwith gives very inspiring sermons on Wednesday evenings, and Dr. Rickie Byars Beckwith leads an awesome all-star band. Dr. Beckwith does travel sometimes, so we cannot guarantee that he'll be at the Agape Sanctuary. When he is not there, the person filling in is almost always a very well-known inspirational speaker as well!
Hands-on Coaching on Evaluating Investment Opportunities: Report cards will help you line up the numbers.  Checklists will help you evaluate the people associated with the investment.  Doing your due diligence and turning over the tiles, gives you a more complete picture of the health of the investment you are considering.
Board Room Problem Solving:  You will have 12 people at your service, helping you problem solve and learn how to invest like the pros do. SoÉ  if you believe that what you focus on expands and what you dream and plan for you can achieve, you are putting a very powerful tool to work for you.  You are actively creating a world where you have a power seat in the boardroom!
 
Private Coaching with Natalie:
If you wish to book a private consultation with Natalie Pace, she will be available Thursday afternoon and Friday, June 21 and 22, respectively.  If you are a premium subscriber and you have not already used your private consultation time, you may use your telephone conference time for an in-person consultation.

*Premium subscribers receive a $500 discount on the event! Call or Email now at 866.476.7442 or Heather@NataliePace.com!  


The Secret of Investing: Hitch Your Wagon to a Star.

by Natalie Pace.

How to pick winning investments the easy way.

The Apple™ iPod.
Photo: Courtesy of Apple

When you think of someone who has consistently picked winners, say in sports, you might picture a loner geek, who inevitably blows up one day when someone starts paying attention to her (when she becomes successful). Everything's going great until s/he starts partying or falls in love or gets a life. Who really wants to spend all of that time looking at mind-numbing graphs and charts?

Well, I certainly can't be accused of slacking off too much on the job, but I guarantee you, as the single mother of a teenage boy, I do have an active life outside of work. So, if I can manage to top Wall Street going into my eighth year, chances are you can, too, even if all you do is read a few articles in my ezine every month. (For tips on how to maximize NataliePace.com while reading the minimum amount, read the FAQs article in this month's ezine.)

Peter Lynch thought that the average investor could do great in the stock market if s/he stuck to things s/he knew, and so do I. On the other hand, while you don't need to spend hours and hours researching your company, it is critical -- especially in times of lower Gross Domestic Product growth rates, such as is occurring right now -- to have a system of checks and balances. Peter Lynch used to say, "If you like the store, chances are, you'll love the stock!" That is a good place to start, but I believe you still need to add two additional ingredients for cooking up profits. See below for my 3-ingredient investment recipe.

Natalie's Recipe for Cooking Up Profits!

  1. Start with what you know and love.
  2. Pick the leader in the sector. (In real estate, this would be "location, location, location!")
  3. Buy low; sell high. (Easy to say; hard to do.)

Now, the first and third ingredients are much easier than the second one. Often times I refer to the second ingredient as Hollandaise sauce - an acquired skill that you can forego by buying it pre-made (by subscribing to a top-performing stock newsletter). In stocks, the pre-made "pick the leader in the sector" comes from a reputable stock newsletter that has been highly ranked and tracked for years by an independent ranking agency like TipsTraders.com or Hulbert's Financial Digest. There are more than one to choose from, so you can pick a newsletter that best suits your needs. There is this ezine (NataliePace.com). Kelley Wright at IQTrends.com is a top performing stock newsletter and is a frequent contributor to our site, as is David Fried at BuyBackLetter.com.

Chances are you'll do better than most, if you religiously follow a top-performing stock newsletter, however, for those of you who really have a taste for investing in individual stocks, picking the leader in the sector is not overly complicated. It just requires a strategy. Over the last eight years, I've discovered that winning investments have a lot in common with one another, and losing investments tend to be lacking in one or more of the four critical areas.

Every month, I go through the exact same research and analysis, on a different sector, and inevitably there is one company that is leading the pack. AND that company is usually pretty easy to identify! Better yet: the process that I employ capitalizes on your skills as a shopper more than those you'd need to achieve a Ph.D. in economics. When I'm evaluating companies, the four basic questions I ask are:

4 Questions to Determine the Leader in the Sector:

  1. What's the product?
  2. Who's going to buy it and why would they like that product more than the competitor's version?
  3. Can the company make a superior product now and going forward, and get it to the masses while the customer's appetite is whet and the product is fresh?
  4. Who's running the company, and how motivated are the employees to deliver superior product faster, cheaper, better?

You can see how shoppers have a leg up on the competition here! As a consumer, you can answer the first three questions right off the bat. You know what products you like, which you don't and why. The analysis you use to go shopping can actually help you to identify just who is leading the competition right at this moment.

In companies with niche customers - like picking one micro chipmaker or lithium ion battery supplier over another - you can still use this formula, but you need to have knowledge or gather information on why/how one chip or battery is really better than the other, and have sales data from their customers supporting your theory. The alternative would be to rely on a respected media source - like an industry magazine that ranks the companies, their products and their sales for you.

The fourth question is designed to tell you how long the company's competitive advantage will stay in place. (Note: you still need to follow the investment recipe to the 3rd and final step - buy low; sell high, before your "leader" will be a wise investment.)

Let's walk through the process with a company that I featured in my ezine back in May 2004 - "Google: The People's IPO."

In June 2007, Google was a $150 billion dollar company, with $12 billion in annual sales. But back in May of 2004, when Google was launching a "Dutch auction" on its Initial Public Offering, the company had only a billion in sales, and pundits were wondering if it could take a $33 billion dollar valuation, which was the market value of Yahoo at the time. (Yahoo was valued at $44 billion in May 2007.) Google had survived the Dot Com crash and, unlike most Internet companies, was profitable, but should a company with just $1 billion in sales come out of the box with a $33 billion (or higher) market valuation and a 33 price to earnings ratio - especially when investors were still hurting from the 2000-2002 DOT COM recession?

Google Financials

Net Revenues
Year End 2003

Net Income
Year End 2003

Cash & Cash equivalents 3.31.04

$961,874,000

$105,648,000

$251,354,000

So, let's go back to the formula:

  1. What's the product? Search engine. Something we all need and do daily, to the point that Google, a noun, is now used as a verb. (You don't hear anyone saying, "Yahoo it!")
  2. Who's going to buy it and why would they like that product more than the competitor's version? The Google website was used for 34.7% of Internet searches in the U.S. in February 2004, according to ComScore Networks, ahead of Yahoo (30%) and MSN (15%). Google was also the number one search engine in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and Australia (Nielsen/Net Ratings 6.03), with 81.9 million global unique users per month. Why did users like the product better? It was a better search engine! Additionally, they developed the easy-to-use text ads, that looked similar to the responses to your search query, and never employed the dreaded pop-up ads!
  3. Can the company make a superior product and get it to the masses while the customer's appetite is whet and the product is fresh? Google had been leading search for so long that it had become a pop phenomenon. How many times do you hear the phrase, "Google it!" They were also leading the industry in developing ads that people actually used, and making it easy for smaller companies to buy these ads instead of classifieds in the local paper. Mom and Pop shop revenue nationwide was diversifying the Google revenue stream and beefing up the bottom line.
  4. Who's running the company, and how motivated are the employees to deliver superior product faster, cheaper, better? The two guys running the company had attended Stanford University. They required engineers to spend a day a week on projects that interest them, unrelated to their day jobs. The reception area was decorated with lava lamps and bean bag chairs. The founders regularly skated in the bi-weekly roller hockey during lunchtime. And they promised to make money without being evil. Lofty goals perhaps, but it certainly seemed to be working.
Google lobby. Lava lamps and bean bag chairs.

You know my motto: "Happy people make better products faster cheaper." Google's book on success might very well bare that title.

So, if I were scoring each of the four categories, Google would have ranked an A+ in all four. As such, I predicted on May 1, 2004:

I don't need to tell you that if the editors of American Heritage are forced to include a noun as a verb in the dictionary, you are witnessing an historic phenomenonÉ Google continues to break the mold, and is committed to continuing that trend, with an unprecedented IPO, which is likely to become one of the most successful IPO's ever.

With a May 2007 valuation of $148 billion, Google was the most successful launch for a public company ever. Dr. Eric Schmidt has the distinction of being the only CEO to go from zero to over $140 billion in market capitalization in under two years.

What's more important for our analytical purposes is that this simplified model of what business does and who buys the goods works. For instance, most of the analysts and money managers who appeared with me on national television shows in May of 2004 were not behind the Google IPO. Many of my colleagues thought I was crazy for believing that an Internet advertising model was going to keep doubling in revenue for the next few years, or that those mom and pop shop text ads were going to add up to anything! Even our own contributing writer, Paul Woods, a money manager whom I respect a lot, stayed on the sidelines during the Google IPO. You can read his "Agog Over Google," article in the archives, vol. 1, issue. 49.

 

Now, let's take, for instance, a company that has been on my Cooling Off list for the past three years - General Motors - and run it through the same test. You can read the article "Hybrids: Car of the Stars, But Should You Own the Stock?" that I wrote warning that General Motors and Ford were going to hit tough times in the archived ezine, vol. 1, issue. 50 from July 1, 2004. In that article, I predicted, "Good-bye SUVs!"

  1. What's GM's product? In 2004, before the jump in oil prices, GM was producing mostly SUVs and Hummers, while Toyota and Honda were promoting the new hybrids. General Motors had production lines that were committed to continuing the production of SUVs because SUVs were all the rage and still tested well in focus groups - until oil prices escalated. When gas prices doubled (in the U.S. between 2004-2007), all of the sudden consumers started to think the Toyota Prius, which could run 50+ miles on a gallon of gas, was pretty cool. GM's sales went into a nosedive. By 2007, Toyota became the top selling automaker, pushing GM out of the spot it had dominated since 1930.
  2. Who's going to buy it and why would they like GM's product more than the competitor's version? After gas prices rose, nobody wanted SUVs or Hummers anymore. Even Arnold Schwarzenegger had a hydrogen fuel cell put into his Hummer, so that it wouldn't be a gas hog! Everyone ran hard and fast to fuel-efficient vehicles. Check out the charts below on what happened to the investors in General Motors versus Toyota since 2000. General Motors lost over 60% of its value, while Toyota Motors is up 40%, over the same period.
  3. Can the company make a superior product and get it to the masses while the customer's appetite is whet and the product is fresh?
    While Honda and Toyota were investing in hybrid technology and creating production lines for the Prius and the Civic Hybrid, General Motors remained committed to SUVs and Hummers. Perhaps it was the "legacy costs" that prevented GM from adapting and investing in new technology, but General Motors is still very far behind the Japanese automakers in fuel-efficiency and hybrid technology. In the first quarter of 2007, Toyota became the number one automaker, with 2.35 million cars and light trucks sold, compared to the number two, General Motors, with 2.25 million sold. According to CNN, It marked the first time that GM had fallen behind a competitor in global sales since 1930. (Toyota was beating GM in profitability for four years prior to beating GM in sales.)
  4. Who's running the company, and how motivated are the employees to deliver superior product faster, cheaper, better?
    The CEOs of both Ford and General Motors are respected in the industry for having to do a very hard job - steering these legacy corporations through some of the same challenges that have forced so many airlines to go into bankruptcy - high materials costs, high labor costs and crushing debt obligations to pensions and other Post Employment Benefit Obligations. On the other hand, GM was rightfully criticized for not switching to fuel-efficient cars more quickly. Delphi, a former division of General Motors, went bankrupt. Unfortunately, in this stormy climate, staff morale typically drowns. It's tough on your smile when you get your pay or your benefits cut back, and it takes a saint not to want to blame the boss who's running the company for the tough times. In that climate, General Motor's Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner has his work cut out for him just to keep the company in business. Making the business profitable will require a multi-year turnaround strategy.
 

So, if I were scoring all four categories for General Motors, the company gets an F in the first three categories and a D in the 4th. In July of 2004, I warned to stay away from the entire auto industry, and General Motors in particular, and over the next three years, General Motors remained on my warning list. By May of 2007, with $94 billion owed in long term debt, pensions and other Post Employment Benefit Obligations, General Motors had over five times more in debt obligations than the $18 billion market value of the company. (Source: Sec.Gov).

The bottom line is that from 2004 to 2007, Google returned over 450% to investors, while General Motors posted negative returns of over -20%. Since I appear on national television, I had to use statistics and charts to back up my position, but you can see that even without statistics and charts, the questions that you can ask and answer as a discerning consumer lead to the same answer. This is not really surprising when you think about who carries the power in a democratic society - the consumer!

If you have an idea where the shopper is voting with her dollars and her feet, you actually have a leg up on the Wall Street analyst who cannot veer too dramatically from the schooled system of analysis. You can see the trends in the stores months before that trend shows up in the earnings report. And if a company is adept at "managing earnings," and covering up problem areas - like the telecommunications companies that went bankrupt in 2002-2003 were -- then you're seeing the trends well in advance of the analysts on Wall Street. It isn't that hard to figure out that telecommunications companies are going to have problems when long distance rates plummet from 25-30 cents a minute to 4 cents a minute, as they did between 1998 and 2000.

Next month, I'll take you through this exercise with two other companies - MySpace and Enron.

Articles of Interest:
Are GM, Delphi and Delta the Beginning of Japan-like Stagnation for the U.S.?
For a Check-up on the Economy, We Call On the Doctor, Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate and Professor of Economics and Sociology at the University of Chicago. By Natalie Pace. March 2006 ezine, vol. 3, issue 3.
Faded Blue Chips. By Natalie Pace. Why the Pension Crisis Could Spoil Christmas on Wall Street. Including 8 Ways to Protect Yourself Now From a December Nest Egg Disaster and a Pensions Stock Report Card. August, 2006 ezine, vol. 3, issue 8.
Hybrids: Car of the Stars. By Natalie Pace.
Agog Over Google." by Paul Woods. article in the archives, vol. 1, issue. 49.
Google: The People's IPO. By Natalie Pace.


The Economics of Disaster Management.

by Dr. Gary S. Becker.

This article first appeared in the Wall Street Journal. (Eastern edition). New York, N.Y.: Jan 4, 2005. pg. A.12.

Dr. Gary S. Becker, Nobel Laureate, Economics. University Professor, Department of Economics Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business
The University of Chicago.

John Stuart Mill, the great 19th century English economist and philosopher, optimistically, but I believe accurately, remarked on the "great rapidity with which countries recover from a state of devastation, the disappearance in a short time, of all traces of mischief done by earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and the ravages of war." The history of both natural and man-made disasters during the subsequent century-and-a-half generally supports Mill.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks were quickly recognized as the beginning of a series of possibly more destructive attacks on U.S. citizens and property, and many commentators then believed it would cause a major economic depression. Yet it had a slight overall impact on the course of GDP and employment in the United States, although some industries and New York City were affected for several years. The Kobe earthquake of 1995 killed over 6,000 persons, and destroyed more than 100,000 homes, still the economic recovery not only of Japan but also of the Kobe economy was rapid. The flu pandemic of 1918-19 killed about 30 million persons world-wide without having a major impact on the world's economy. The lasting economic effects are similarly small for most other natural disasters that have occurred during the past couple of centuries.

Many natural catastrophes have very low probabilities of occurring, but cause considerable destruction of both life and property when they do happen. The recent tsunami in the Indian Ocean is one horrible example: it killed many more people than either 9/11 or the Kobe earthquake. But bad as it is, the loss of life is much smaller relative to the populations of the nations affected than some previous disasters.

History and analysis both indicate that the economic recovery of the nations most adversely affected by this tsunami will be rapid, although it will take longer in the resorts and coastal regions hit the hardest. The expectation of rapid recovery explains why Asian stock markets did not change much after the tsunami struck: Indonesia's and Malaysia's actually rose a little during the last week of December, while Thailand's declined a little, and Sri Lanka's declined by a few percent.

I fully agree with Richard Posner that it is worth spending considerably more to provide better early warning systems about the future occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis, asteroids that might strike the earth, and other catastrophes. But no matter how much is spent and how much planning takes place, natural catastrophes will continue and will sometimes be unexpected.

Survivors of disasters that strike rich nations usually have medical coverage to pay for their treatment and rehabilitation, and insurance to cover much of their property destroyed, while those who perish usually leave life insurance for their families, and the opportunity to obtain decent education for their children. By contrast, most individuals in poor nations of Asia and elsewhere mainly rely on help from their families and neighbors when disasters strike. Unfortunately, such help is not available when disasters attack many members of the same family and whole neighborhoods, as in major tsunamis and earthquakes.

An effective way for poorer nations to respond in the longer run would be to encourage greater investment in education. Since education raises the earnings of individuals and the per-capita incomes of countries, education clearly makes it easier to cope with disasters -- as Mill had already recognized. Beyond that, however, my colleague Casey Mulligan and I have shown that educated persons take a much longer time perspective in their personal decisions. This means that they are much more likely to anticipate the incidence and location of natural catastrophes when they decide where to live and how their houses are built, and they better protect themselves in other ways as well.

Greater access to private market insurance, even if subsidized by governments, is obviously also desirable, but such insurance is not likely to be available to, or chosen by, the type of very poor families disproportionately affected by this tsunami. The large outpouring of aid from rich nations will help only in the very near term. The next best alternative to private insurance would be government disaster programs in poor countries that designate areas hit by major earthquakes, hurricanes, and other catastrophes, manmade or natural, as eligible for disaster assistance. Such programs could make sufficient payments to poor families of husbands and fathers who died, and to families that lost most of their property, to help put them on their economic feet, without causing much of a drain on the government budgets of even poorer developing nations like Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

The moral hazard effects of such programs are always worrisome -- families might continue to build homes on earthquake fault lines if they expect government compensation when their homes are destroyed, or continue to build close to the shore in potential water-borne disaster areas. There is no perfect offset against such rational responses to government coverage of losses, but incomplete protection ("co- payments"), and regulatory exclusion of certain types of construction and other vulnerable activities in potential disaster regions would encourage individuals to consider the risks involved in their actions.

 

Dr. Becker is the University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his website and blog. To hear more of his recommendations for strengthening the U.S. economy, listen to his panels from the 2007 Milken Global Economic Conference. To read more of his insights on how communities transform to prosperity out of violence and/or disaster, read Peace = Prosperity in the June NataliePace.com ezine.


Thoughts Become Things.

by Gary Kobat.

What are you creating: Depression and Despair or Joy and Freedom? Includes your very own Emotional Guidance System (EGS) chart.

Gary at-work pacing World Champion Sara Chojnacki to a podium finish in Austin, Texas.

Seriously, if you haven't gotten it by now: we are the creator of our own experiences. Our emotions are our indicators of our alignment, our direction, and/or connection to our future and our source.  Like a sculptor, painter, potter, or writer molding and crafting through the focus of our minds, we broadcast our signals at every moment, with these signals easily understood and received by many. What we are feeling and thinking creates our world. The stronger the feelings; the stronger the alignment with those thoughts. You are inviting your highest good, or sentencing yourself to a term of "in your own way-ness."

Our emotions are our compass.  With this knowledge, we can now guide our direction or even what we attract, using our emotions to feel our way to joy or happiness.  And once we are in control of our emotional direction, we feel a sense of relief, with less doubt.  We see and enjoy our life, as a prisoner of nothing.

To help you navigate the path of infinite possibilities, we've created an EGS, an emotional guidance system, a tool, a chart, a visual for you to cut out, paste up on the wall, the desk, fold in the planner or purse to be utilized to help you "move up" on the scale of joy and happiness.  Some of you may be feeling bad, and not really know how bad till you grade yourself on the scale.  Fret not.  As your goal would be to just allow yourself to do the best you can, to feel the best feeling you can at that very moment, allowing yourself to find relief by reaching for the best feeling that you can resonate with on the scale.  And with practice, you'll find yourself moving up the scale quicker, easier, and with less resistance, feeling better, more frequently, enjoying your day, your week, your month, your life with more flow.

Recently I read about the USA's own Mary Lou Retton, Olympic Gold medalist, world-class gymnast, 39-year young Mom of 4 beautiful kids, needing to go through a hip replacement after being so fit and energetic all of these years for us to witness. I was thinking about the challenge it must have been for her to go from an assertive, smiling inspiration every day to limping and painful each day as the hip deteriorated. From +10s in life, just as she had in the Olympics, to questions about her future.

Ironically, that was the day that my own hip began to deteriorate: I went from the high of running my 51st marathon with a client, along with being presented Team USA's All-American award days later was a +10 for me - this new 50-year-old -- to barely walking from the pain just six months later. I sat in church, tears flowing down my cheek, feeling depressed, a negative 10 out of 10 on the scale of ultimate emotions, worrying about not being able to serve my clients, compete for my country, make a living in what I loved or even energetically move as I have the other 49 years of my life.

But then it hit me, "What about that new hip resurfacing procedure just approved by the FDA like Tour de France winner Floyd Landis just received?" This started to move my emotions from the lowest of lows, from devastation, up a few notches to worried ("Can I do this?"). As I allowed this possible solution to take center stage, my emotions climbed to contentment ("Okay, I need to get researching"). From there my mood edged up to hopeful (after I found out more) to optimistic (after phoning a recent athletic patient and hearing his results) to positive (being a life coach after all, we know that what we focus on we attract!) to passionate (about having the surgery) to freedom when I did it!

Dr. Vijay Bose with Gary Kobat after surgery in Chennai, India.

Yes, I am 5 weeks post-op from flying to see the best surgeon in the world (located in India) for this new hip resurfacing procedure and I'm feeling, seeing, and moving like I never have in my life. I've been given a new opportunity in life to do all the things I've always wanted to do by not allowing myself to live in that depressed state. Rather, I had faith, and a knowing if I just moved up on the scale of better emotions, that I would manifest better solutions to help manifest a better outlook. I did not know, however, the how, where, why, or when it would all get done, but, rather just trusted that my own state of optimism and faith would connect me with the universe's best results for me. Just as Mary Lou did for herself in her moment of "movement despair."

So with that energy I have created a scale for you to use: an emotional guidance scale structured for you to go from the negative or bad: a -10, to the positive or good: a +10.... with the positive being in alignment with source energy and with the negative being disconnected from that same love and source energy, that of which we were made.  Or putting it another way: "The negative is as far from the answer as universally possibly."   

The Emotional Guidance System.  (EGS)
+10:   joy, love, freedom.
+9:   empowered, grateful.
+8:   passion, appreciative.             
+7:   enthusiasm, eagerness.
+6:   belief, positive.
+5:   expectation, knowledge.
+4:   optimism.
+3:   hopefulness.
+2:   contentment.
+1:   average.
  0:   boredom, pessimism.
 -1:   frustration, irritation.
 -2:   impatience, overwhelm.
 -3:   disappointment.
 -4:   doubt, worry.
 -5:   blame, discouragement.
 -6:   anger, revenge.
 -7:   hatred, rage, jealousy.
 -8:   guilt, unworthiness.
 -9:   fear, grief, powerless.
-10:  depression.

So the next time you're in an emotional bind: go ahead: plot yourself on the scale.... and start moving on up.

The EGS: Show your kids, your spouse. Share it with a friend.

Until next time: Train smart. Live, race, recover smarter. Gary.

 

Chat online with Gary on June 13th, and learn why it's hip to get a new hip resurfacing procedure done in India. Gary Kobat is a life and fitness coach to many celebrities and the recent recipient of a new hip resurfacing procedure, which he had done in India by Dr. Vijay Bose, after doing extensive research into hip replacement and resurfacing options. While Gary is not a doctor and cannot recommend what is best for you personally, he can share the names of well-respected doctors and research, which might help to inform your decision-making. Gary's recovery is unbelievable proof - so far -- that getting hip surgery does not mean that your athleticism will suffer greatly or that you will become a cripple!

 

Get more information on this chat at the Calendar Section of NataliePace.com. (Practice going into the chat room now, so that you can be sure you have your passwords, and do not have any firewall issues that prevent you from participating.)


Lighten Up on the Way to Enlightenment.

by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.

 

Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.

My friend, Adipen Bose, said to me, "People say that in India we have 8 million gods. That's not itÑwe have 8 million aspects of God." That sounds right to me. If there is a God, Creative Consciousness, Higher Power, Divine Designer of the UniverseÑcall it "The Force" as in Star WarsÑwhen we small humans touch upon such magnificence, can we be entrusted to see all of the mighty power contained therein? Most likely not. So what we do is choose aspects of God to worship, pray to, or be mindful of, and we choose groups called religions in order to bond with others and touch the Divine: Jewish, Hindu, Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Muslim, Church of Religious Science, Ba H'ai, et al. There was a survey in England in which 390,000 people listed their religious affiliation as "Jedi". The aspect of God I believe in would be laughing heartily with me about that!

I think it grand that so many people gather together in ancient traditions to celebrate the higher good in humanity and nature. Find Your Group of Your People, bond with them and connect with spirit often. The part we need to leave behind is when we condemn Other People for joining other groups which follow different traditions. A survey conducted by Harris Interactive in 2004 showed that 69% of adult Americans believe religious differences are the biggest hurdle to global peace. Since it doesn't appear all 6.3 billion of us are going to agree on One True Religion anytime soon, we must somehow learn how to agree to disagree, smile, and wave to each other across the altars of our choosing.

The Bible, the Koran, the Upanishads, the Vedanta, the Sufi stories, the Torah, The Course in Miracles, Science of Mind, the readings of Edgar Cayce at the Association for Research and Enlightenment, and all other spiritual writings are tales of someone else's experience of the Divine. Each offers a perspective and help in finding Your People and Your Aspect of God. Follow the path that sings to you, join the group that feels like home to youÑand let everyone else do the same. Let all of us who believe in a Higher Power happily bond with all the others who believe in one, too, whatever hymn they choose to sing.

I am an equal opportunity believer. I believe in Jesus, Buddha, Mohammed, Yahweh, Gandhi, Krishna, Lakshmi, the Dali Lama, Mary, Mother Theresa, Paramahansa Yogananda, Ernest Holmes, the Pope, Martin Luther, and Martin Luther King, Jr. Elves, faeries, Frodo, Han Solo, Intelligent Design, and Darwin. I believe in my mom and dad and my sisters. I believe in you, I believe in me. I believe in the Universal Good in all religious traditions. Their instructions about how to be a good person are very similar: Love God, love your fellow man, give to the poor, help the downtrodden, don't lie, don't cheat, don't steal, don't kill, and treat others as you would like them to treat you. It seems to me how we get there is not quite as important as getting there. As Deng Ming-Dao says in 365 Tao, "When you buy something that has assembly instructions, you follow the directions, but you do not then venerate the instructions."

A Zillion Roads to Take Us Home
I have found beauty in all religious traditions. I gained insight from Sufi stories, I learned compassion and love from Jesus; I learned basic morality from the Ten Commandments of the Torah. Catholics have beautiful cathedrals, a wonderful liturgy, Gregorian Chants, and the Sistine Chapel. The Mormons I have met have been some of the nicest people I've ever encountered. Muslims pray five times a day, and the muezzin's song calling the faithful to worship is profoundly beautiful. I found Tao in the night-blooming jasmine outside my door, and the purring of the cat in my arms. I embraced reincarnation after reading about Edgar Cayce's work in There is a River by Thomas Sugrue, because it rang an internal bell for me. Many lives, many chances to discover and learn the truthÑI like that idea.

I listen to everyone and do the best I can to make my own decisions, to take the wheat and leave the chaff behind. Someone huffed at me that I couldn't just believe the parts of religions I liked and disregard the rest. Sure I can. Just watch me keep the baby Dolphin and throw the sharky bits in the bathwater out. Aren't you going to do the same thing with this bookÑuse the parts of it that work for you and disregard the rest? Some people sneer at "cafeteria-style spirituality" but I like it. You can put the 49-bean soup instead of plain lentil on my tray every day, and if I want to pick out the lima beans, I get to.

I've always been just a wee bit suspicious when told not that God doesn't want me to think for myself but just play "Follow the Leader."

One afternoon, I was at an airport, ready to catch my plane back home. It was crowded; lots of lines, lots of security check points. ("Curse you, Osama Bin Laden," I couldn't help but mutter under my breath. I admit I often curse him at airports. Sometimes holding love in your heart for your fellow man is a challenge.)

My friend, Shelley, and I automatically joined a very long line, three people deep, waiting to go up the escalator nearly 50 yards away. I looked ahead and noticed something unusual. Escalators are usually built in pairs, with one going up and one going down. There were two escalators here, but both of them were going up. Yet no one in this long, long line had noticed that there were two up escalators. Everyone was crowding in line waiting only for the one on the right-hand side. I looked around for a sign that said it was broken, to see if it wasn't moving, or if there was some obvious reason why no one was using it. There was nothing.

I tapped the young man in front of me on the shoulder and asked, "Do you see any reason why no one is using the other up escalator?"

His eyes widened, and he looked sharply at the escalators. He turned back to me laughingly, shook his head and said, "No, I don't," straightened his shoulders and motioned to me, "Let's go!"

Shelley and I followed and we walked past sixty-plus people waiting in line for the right escalator, got on the left escalator, and zipped right to the top.

I think religions are like that. It's comfortable to follow in the line in front of you. It's a habit and it feels safe. Usually, there's some charismatic salesman up ahead, pointing the way, saying, "This one is the right escalator." He's got a group following him already, and it seems natural to join the crowd. This can be fun; everyone can chat with each other and party. Just beware when they start saying "This is the only escalator." That's just the sales and marketing team creating a sense of urgency for their membership drive. That's about power and money, not about God and Spirit.

Take another look: There are a zillion people on a zillion escalators, all going up.

Chellie Campbell is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine at www.chellie.com.

 

SEC’s "Operation Spamalot" Suspends Trading Of 35 Companies Touted In Spam Email Campaigns.

On March 8, 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission suspended trading in the securities of 35 companies that have been the subject of recent and repeated spam email campaigns. The trading suspensions - the most ever aimed at spammed companies - were ordered because of questions regarding the adequacy and accuracy of information about the companies

 

The trading suspensions are part of a stepped-up SEC effort - code named "Operation Spamalot" - to protect investors from potentially fraudulent spam email hyping small company stocks with phrases like, "Ready to Explode," "Ride the Bull," and "Fast Money." It's estimated that 100 million of these spam messages are sent every week, triggering dramatic spikes in share price and trading volume before the spamming stops and investors lose their money.

"When spam clogs our mailboxes, it's annoying. When it rips off investors, it's illegal and destructive," said SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. "Today's trading suspensions, and actions that will follow, should send a clear message to spammers: the SEC will hold you accountable."

Linda Chatman Thomsen, Director of the SEC's Enforcement Division, said, "Many of these companies are no doubt familiar to anyone who reads their email, because each has been the subject of a spam email campaign. While the Commission cautions investors not to make investment decisions based on anonymous emails they receive, we are also committed to tracking down those who prey on investors with false or misleading information."

Mark K. Schonfeld, Director of the Commission's Northeast Regional Office, said, "By halting trading in these stocks we are seeking to protect investors from further harm. But this is only the first step. Our investigation of the perpetrators - the people behind this misconduct - is continuing."

The securities of each of the 35 companies have been quoted on the Pink Sheets quotations service. Recent trading clearly demonstrates how spam campaigns can affect stock prices and trading volume. For example:

* On Friday, Dec. 15, 2006, shares in Apparel Manufacturing Associates, Inc. (APPM) closed at $.06, with a trading volume of 3,500 shares. After a weekend spam campaign distributed emails proclaiming, "Huge news expected out on APPM, get in before the wire, We're taking it all the way to $1.00," trading volume on Monday, Dec. 18, 2006, hit 484,568 shares with the price spiking to over 19 cents a share. Two days later the price climbed to $.45. By Dec. 27, 2006, the price was back down to $.10 on trading volume of 65,350 shares.

* On Dec. 19, 2006, trading in Goldmark Industries, Inc. (GDKI), closed at $.17 on trading volume of 126,286 shares. On Dec. 20, 2006, the spam campaign started, with e-mail proclaiming "GDKI IS MAKING EVERYONE BANK!," and setting a 5-day price target of $2. By Dec. 28, 2006, spam emails boasted of the price spike that had already been achieved -- "$.28 (Up 152% in 2 days!!!)" -- and promised a 5-day price target of $1. That same day, GDKI closed at $.35 on a volume of more than 5 million shares. By January 9, 2007, the closing share price was back down to $.15.

* A spam campaign in Healtheuniverse, Inc. (HLUN) stock began on Sept. 4, 2006, with emails incorporating a Healtheuniverse press release proclaiming that HLUN was "focused on being the first to commercialize stem cell applications in the $15 billion worldwide plastic surgery and cosmetic surgery market." On Sept. 7, 2006, HLUN closed at $.12 per share on trading volume of 3,000 shares. The spam campaign accelerated, and HLUN shares spiked to $.22 per share on Sept. 11, 2006, with over 2.2 million shares trading hands. By Sept. 22, 2006, the closing price had dropped back down to $.11.

The trading suspensions lasted for ten business days. The trading suspensions commenced today at 9:30 a.m., EDT, and terminated at 11:59 p.m., EDT, on March 21, 2007.

The 35 companies whose trading was suspended were: Advanced Powerline Technologies Inc. (APWL), America Asia Petroleum Corp. (AAPM), Amerossi Int'l Group, Inc. (AMSN), Apparel Manufacturing Associates, Inc. (APPM), Asgard Holdings Inc. (AGHG), Biogenerics Ltd. (BIGN), China Gold Corp. (CGDC), CTR Investments & Consulting, Inc. (CIVX), DC Brands International, Inc. (DCBI), Equal Trading, Inc. (EQTD), Equitable Mining Corp. (EQBM), Espion International, Inc. (EPLJ), Goldmark Industries, Inc. (GDKI), GroFeed Inc. (GFDI), Healtheuniverse, Inc. (HLUN), Interlink Global Corp. (ILKG), Investigative Services Agencies, Inc. (IVAY), iPackets International, Inc. (IPKL), Koko Petroleum Inc. (KKPT), Leatt Corporation (LEAT), LOM Logistics, Inc. (LOMJ), Modern Energy Corp. (MODR), National Healthcare Logistics, Inc. (NHLG), Presidents Financial Corp. (PZFC), Red Truck Entertainment Inc. (RTRK), Relay Capital Corp. (RLYC), Rodedawg International Industries, Inc. (RWGI), Rouchon Industries, Inc. (RCHN), Software Effective Solutions Corp. (SFWJ), Solucorp Industries Ltd. (SLUP), Sports-stuff.com Inc. (SSUF), UBA Technology, Inc. (UBTG), Wataire Industries Inc. (WTAF), WayPoint Biomedical Holdings, Inc. (WYPH), and Wineco Productions Inc. (WNCP).

The 35 suspensions concern companies that are not subject to the reporting requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Not listed on any exchange, or on the OTC Bulletin Board, the companies' securities have been quoted on the Pink Sheets quotation service on an unsolicited basis, meaning that the brokers posting quotations for the purchase and sale of the securities are not required to conduct due diligence regarding the issuers.

The Commission's Office of Investor Education and Assistance has information for investors and members of the general public on topics directly related to this action. See: http://www.sec.gov/investor/35tradingsuspensions.htm.

The Commission appreciates the assistance and cooperation of the National Association of Securities Dealers, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, the British Columbia Securities Commission, and the Ontario Securities Commission.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2007/2007-34.htm


"China" Stocks—Look Beyond the Name Before You Invest.

A NASD Investor Alert.

 

Economic growth in China and strong performances by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Indices are fueling the touting of low-priced "China" stocks. But some of the companies being touted all too often have no actual connection to China's stock markets.

As with other market sectors, there are legitimate and not-so-legitimate ways to invest in China. We are issuing this Alert to warn investors about fax, email and even cell phone text message scams that promote the latest "hot" China stock and to provide information on how to invest wisely in China.

Spotting "China" Stock Scams
One fax promoted a China stock with the headline, "Grabbing massive profits in China has never been easier than right now!" It went on to promote a company whose shares were "ripe to pop" for "a low price that's unheard of, and quite temporary." The fax went on to urge investors to "load up on the stock now!" Fraudsters use these efforts to pump up the stock's price, then sell off their shares, usually leaving investors with a stock valued at much less than when they purchased it.

As with other types of stock scams, unsolicited faxes and spam about "China" stocks may include:

* Price targets or predications of swift and exponential growth.
* The use of verifiable demographic facts to bolster claims of a price run-up, such as making a direct link between a stock's growth prospects and China's growing middle-class population.
* Claims that making profits in China are "easy."
* Mention of associations with, or actions by, the Chinese government that bolster a company's product or service.
* The use of headlines from respected financial news sources regarding China, which can easily be taken out of context.
* Mention of the names of major investment banks to give the air of credibility.
* Statements correlating growth in the touted company with growth success stories of other Chinese companies. Sometimes the only similarity is the use of "China" in the company name.
* Statements about how much easier it is for lower-priced stocks to skyrocket in value in comparison to higher-priced stocks.
* Pressure to invest immediately.

Look Beyond a Company's Name
The fact that a company has "China" in its name can be misleading. The company might not be incorporated or based in China, and it may be very difficult to assess how much, if any, business the company actually derives from China.

Also be advised that stock promoters often change a company's name and trading symbol in an apparent attempt to align it more closely with a current event or issue. The company referenced above went by five different names and trading symbols in five years, with none of the previous names even remotely suggesting an affiliation with China. It also changed the jurisdiction in which it was incorporated, shifting from California to British Columbia, Canada to Nevada.

You can learn more about a company by checking the SEC's EDGAR database. If the company is registered and files reports with the SEC, read those reports carefully and independently verify any information you have heard about the company. Changes in a company's name, trading symbol, and articles of incorporation Ñ and other key corporate events Ñ are reported through SEC Form 8-K.

Be sure to take a look at the company's description of its business, which you'll find in the company's Form 10-K (or, for small businesses, Form 10K-SB). Again, each time the company cited in our example above changed its name it also changed its business focus Ñ from 3-D video editing, to oil and gas exploration in North America, to mining in the U.S. and China, back to oil and gas exploration in North America, and ultimately to fax machine distribution in China.

Find Out Where the Stock Trades
Most unsolicited spam recommendations involve stocks that can't meet, or choose not to meet, the listing requirements of The NASDAQ Stock Market (NASDAQ), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), or the American Stock Exchange. Instead, these stocks are usually quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board (OTCBB) or in the Pink Sheets. Over 100 companies starting their name with "China" are quoted on the Pink Sheets and the OTCBB. In contrast, only 10 companies starting with "China" in their name trade on the NYSE, and 9 trade on NASDAQ.

There are important differences between the OTCBB and the Pink Sheets and formal markets such as NASDAQ and the NYSE:

  • There are no minimum quantitative standards that a company must meet to have its securities quoted on the OTCBB or in the Pink Sheets, though OTCBB issuers must remain current in their filings with the SEC or applicable regulatory authority and foreign issues and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) quoted on the OTCBB must be registered with the SEC.

  • Many Pink Sheet companies, on the other hand, have no obligation to file annual or quarterly reports or to publicly disclose current material information, and foreign issues need not be registered with the SEC.

  • Many of the securities quoted on the OTCBB or in the Pink Sheets don't have a liquid market. They are infrequently traded and can move up or down in price quickly. This may make it difficult to sell your security at a later date.

Don't Be a Scam Victim
To avoid potential stock scams, make sure you look beyond a company's name to get the information you need to make a wise investment choice.

  • Investigate before you invest. Never rely solely on information you receive in an unsolicited fax or email. It's easy for companies or their promoters to make glorified claims about new products, lucrative contracts, or the company's revenue, profits, or future stock price.

  • Always ask: "Why me?" Another tip-off that you're potentially being scammed is that the message is unsolicited, which raises the obvious question: Why would a total stranger send you an email about a really great investment opportunity? The answer is that there is no such opportunity for you. In many email and fax scams, those who tout the stock are corporate insiders, paid promoters, or substantial shareholders who stand to profit handsomely if the company's stock price goes up. If you're suspicious about an offer or if you think the claims might be exaggerated or misleading, please contact us.

  • Read a company's SEC filings, if available. Most public companies file reports with the SEC. Check the SEC's EDGAR database to find out whether the company files with the SEC. Read the reports and verify any information you have heard about the company. But remember that just because a company has registered its securities or has filed reports with the SEC, it doesn't mean that it will be a good investment. Be alert to changes in the company's name and trading symbol, reported through SEC Form 8-K. Stock promoters often change a company's name and trading symbol in an apparent attempt to align it more closely with a current event or issue.

Touts and outright scams come in many forms and involve many types of investments. Right now, you would do well to avoid unsolicited promotions of low-cost "China" stocks. They spell high risk in any language.

Understand the Risks of Investing Internationally
International investments, including China stocks, are subject to political, economic, and social risk factors, accounting and regulatory standards that may differ from those in the U.S., as well as currency fluctuations that can affect investment return. Also keep in mind that your risk increases when you invest in a single country, and when you invest in emerging market economies. Foreign stock investing carries additional risk, including:

  • currency risk

  • the risk of inadequate or imperfect disclosure of financial information

  • differing legal procedures

  • differing stock market operations; and..

  • potential lack of liquidity

If, having taken these risks into account, you decide to seek exposure to the Chinese market, you might find these tips helpful:

  • Don't put all your eggs in one basket. As with domestic investing, diversification is a tried and true way to balance risk and reward. While you may be tempted to invest in a single stock, investing through a mutual fund or exchange traded fund (ETF) that focuses on Chinese companies can help spread out and lower your risk. As with any mutual fund or ETF, take the time to research fees and other expenses, as well as the expertise of the fund's manager or management team. Read the fund's prospectus carefully and considering enlisting the help of an investment professional before you invest.

  • Know your direct investment options. U.S. investors may invest in individual stocks that trade on Chinese stock markets through ADRs, U.S.-traded foreign stocks, and directly through "B" shares of stocks that trade on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and "H" shares that trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

  • ADRs are issued by U.S. depositary banks and must meet listing requirements of the U.S. market in which they wish to trade. While ADRs can, and do, trade on the OTCBB and may be quoted through the Pink Sheets, these companies often have not registered with the SEC. U.S.-listed ADRs clear and settle in U.S. dollars, with the price of the ADR closely corresponding to the price of the stock in its home market. For more information on advantages and disadvantages of ADRs, see the SEC's brochure, International Investing, Get the Facts.

U.S.-traded foreign stocks trade in the U.S. markets in the same form as they do in their home market. Foreign stocks are identified by a trading symbol with a fifth character "F." Be aware that while some "China" stocks do indeed trade in Chinese markets (for instance as "H" or "B" shares), others trade in non-Chinese markets such as Canada and as such may have little direct Chinese connection.

Chinese "B" shares list and trade on Chinese stock markets and are designated for the non-Chinese investor. "B" Shares that trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are listed in U.S. dollars, while "B" Shares listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange are listed in Hong Kong dollars. "H" shares are issued by companies that are incorporated in Mainland China and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and may be purchased by non-Chinese investors. To garner the attention of the international investor, "B" and "H" shares may use enticing company names, including the word "China" in the name, to pique investor interest.

If you choose to invest in any of the investment vehicles listed above, it is prudent to work with a registered U.S. investment professional with experience making Chinese investments and a positive track record of doing so. Also be aware that it's against the law for unregistered foreign brokers to call you and try to sell you securities. You can check out a broker or brokerage firm by using BrokerCheck.

In short, while international investing can open up growth and diversification opportunities, be aware of the additional risks that come with it, and be prepared to do your homework.

Additional Resources
Investor Alert, Stock Spams and Scams
Investor Alert, "I hope this is your email" Scam Offers No Hope of Profits
Investor Alert, Beware of "Hot" Stock Tips on Your Cell Phone
Investor Alert, Market Risk: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You
SEC Brochure, International Investing, Get the Facts
SEC Alert, "Wrong Numbers" and Stock Tips on Your Answering Machine
SEC Press Release, SEC Suspends Trading Of 35 Companies Touted In Spam Email Campaigns
OTCBB Web Site, Frequently Asked Questions
Hong Kong Stock Exchange Web Site
BrokerCheck

 

To access links to these Investor Alerts and additional investor resources and information, go to NASD.com.


FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions) About the Companies Natalie Reports On.

What's the easiest way to stay on top of the companies that you are featuring each month?
I publish a new Hot News list on or around the 1st and the 15th of each month. We do our best to put the publishing date on the calendar section, so that you can be on the lookout for it. The article is available online 24/7 for your convenience.

    The email you receive from NataliePace.com is a notice that the article is online, not the article itself. The Internet Service Providers are becoming very aggressive about putting email in the spam folder, and/or blocking email altogether. Don't rely on receiving an email. Go to the website!

    The easiest way to locate the Hot News list is to go to the Online Magazine link on the home page at NataliePace.com. In the drop down menu, simply select Hot News on Cool Stocks. Additionally, the Hot News article is always a headline feature when it is published, so you'll find it in one of the main article spots on the 1st and the 15th. FYI: This article is password protected, so that it is available only to subscribers.

    Additionally, each month I feature an article on a new exciting company at the top of the ezine, while I almost always anchor the bottom of the ezine with the Hot News list. In between those two articles, there are articles by other leading economists, money managers, etc., articles on ways to become better at investing, on creating wealth, on succeeding in business, philanthropy, etc.

    I recommend that you print out the entire ezine and read it in your spare time. When an article is featured on the home page, that is a good time to print it out as well, so that you get just the article (instead of the entire ezine).

  1. Why don't you own all of the companies that are listed on the Hot News List?
    I am a journalist, not a money manager. That means that the governing agencies on Wall Street don't concern themselves with me UNLESS I start acting in a way that they would consider insider trading and/or front-loading my own portfolio. If I were to buy every position that I report on, that would be considered front-loading my portfolio. Telling you to buy things that I already own means that odds are very good that my own position increases in value. It is illegal for me to profit in that way.
  2. Additionally, I have to be careful about exactly when I trade, which must always be after I publish an article.

    One of the few journalists who have been prosecuted for insider trading was a famous Wall Street Journal reporter who allegedly sold the names of the companies he was going to feature before the articles appeared. So, there is actually a strong incentive for me NOT to own the companies I feature.

    I do not recommend thinking that I have more faith in the companies that I buy and sell than in the rest of the companies that I feature. That is simply not the case. More often than not, it is simply true that I am on the road that month, and forget to place an order until the price is above what I want to pay. As you can see from the independent analysis of TipsTraders.com, the overall performance of the entire companies featured in my articles are at the top of Wall Street (and typically start their climb right after I feature them). You'll do better by either following ALL of the companies, or by following the companies that you know the most about and believe in the strongest.

    Investing is a game of controlling your emotions so that you can buy low and sell high. You're more apt to be a cool hand if you understand and believe in the reasons for investing in a particular company or a particular position. Sometimes the markets will challenge your position, and you don't want to panic and sell yourself short.

  3. How can I learn how to use the Stock Report Card?
    In the Investing Edu section of NataliePace.com, we list many past Stock Report Cards. I highly recommend that you check out what happens when you line up the numbers. Start by reviewing a report card on your favorite industry, and then reading the accompanying headline article (from the archived ezines, all of which are available online).

    When you are interested in comparing and contrasting the competition of a company you are interested in, simply create a Stock report Card in your own word processing document and plug in the numbers. There is almost always a clear leader! Reading past articles of mine will help you to start understanding the data, and how to truly evaluate what is most important. It's not just which company is selling for the lowest Price to Earnings ratio. As you can see from the May feature on Subprime mortgage lenders, the lowest P/E could simply identify the companies that are the most vulnerable to Chapter 11!

    Additionally, I teach an intensive 4-day retreat on Living the Rich Life at least twice a year that is focused FOR TWO DAYS on learning how to pick the breakout company of any sector. 25 out of 52 companies featured in NataliePace.com between 2002 and 2005 - that is a whopping 48% -- more than doubled, and the vast majority of the other 52% performed well above the market. Picking the leader in the sector, by using the Stock Report Card to line up the numbers, is a very reliable part of my 3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits. Be sure to keep an eye out and pre-register for the next Living the Rich Life Retreat.

3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits:

  1. Start with what you know and love.
  2. Pick the leader in the sector.
  3. Buy low; sell high. (Easy to say; hard to do.)

Yours in peace and prosperity,

Natalie


Will Dow Hit 35,000?

Will Dow Hit 35,000? Bank of Montreal Takes a $680 Million Dollar Commodity Loss. Workers Riot in Macau. By Natalie Pace. Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks list.

48% of the companies featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and 2005 -- 25 out of 52 companies -- DOUBLED from the time we listed them in our feature article to the time when I took the company off of the Hot News on Cool Stocks list. (See the chart in the article, "25 of our Companies Have Doubled," from volume 4, issue 4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)

Additionally, the market performance of the companies that are featured in my Hot News on Cool Stocks list are still keeping me at the top of over 830 A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com in annualized gains! According to the Tipstraders tracking data, all of the companies featured in the NataliePace.com Hot News list are pulling down 31% gains on average every year. The Hot New list below features 39 companies earning great gains, versus just eight that are headed in the opposite direction.

 

My headline this month features two very important developments and one important question that point to the importance of focusing on a long-term portfolio that posts steady, reliable results. Why do the riots in Macau, the $680 million dollar options commodity loss at Bank of Montreal and the Dow Jones Industrial rally point to setting up a low-risk, long-term investment portfolio, in my view? Perhaps the chart below tells the story best.

Over the course of time, stocks perform better than real estate, bonds, inflation, Treasury bills and gold. And, as so many of my colleagues point out, if you begin tithing 10% of your income to an IRA or 401 (k) at the age of 20, chances are that you will be a millionaire within 30 years. (In the U.S., Retirement Accounts are typically given favorable tax treatment. Tax laws change every year, so it's important to check with your accountant.)

Now, as you can see from my ezine, I am also a fan of breakout companies, but this is a higher-risk investment, and should only be made with a smaller portion of your investment portfolio, and only if you are willing to educate yourself on investing and also willing to follow the investments that you make in your trading portfolio. As an example, two of my top-performing companies, Las Vegas Sands and Blockbuster Video, have lost value since I took them off of the Hot News on Cool Stocks list earlier this year. Las Vegas Sands was trading at $76.23 on May 29, 20007 (and at 66.20 P/EÉ). We took it off the Hot News list at $89.48 on 1.1.07. BBI traded at $4.46. We took it off the Hot News list on 2.12.07 at $6.59. Clearly, if you are unwilling to monitor the gains of individual stocks, you place yourself at risk of losing out.

How did I know to take these companies off of the list at those key points? I recommend that you go back to the March 1, 2007 Hot News article for the explanations. (This article can be found in the archived ezine, vol. 4, iss. 3). Basically, Blockbuster had more than satisfied my expectations, with little cause to believe that the company would continue to outperform. Las Vegas Sands revealed in their earnings report with the Securities and Exchange Commission that they had not secured all of the licenses needed to move forward with their casinos in Macau, and there were signs that those licenses were only going to be more and more difficult to obtain. At a 66 price to earnings ratio in today's volatile marketplace, it's not hard to imagine that the Las Vegas Sands price would fall dramatically if there were any hiccups to opening up all of the planned casinos in Macau on time. To read up more on the labor riots that have been occurring in Macau, simply do a search on the subject.

That leads me to another even riskier investment that is gaining in popularity these days -- thanks to "fool-proof" software and charts - options trading. Please read my article on Options in the archived ezine, vol. 3, issue 12, for detailed information on why this high-risk investment is a very bad idea for most investors, and certainly not until the investor has been actively trading for a number of years. The Bank of Montreal announced on May 17, 2007 that experienced commodity traders at the bank of Montreal had lost $680 million when the volatility on natural gas trading flattened out. (And you thought those charts were fool-proof!)

Commodity, futures and options traders have been responsible for the most colossal losses on Wall Street. BMO fired the traders responsible for taking on that kind of risk, restructured their trading desk and suspended their relationship with Optionable, Inc. the options broker that had handled the trades. Optionable responded by saying basically that it wasn't their fault. Albert Helmig, Optionable Chairman, said, "Gains and losses are both inevitable in trading energy derivatives. We are never pleased when losses dominate for one of our clients, but we do not design or help to design their strategies, nor are we financial advisors. We provide brokerage and execution services for trades that we are instructed to make by our clients. We believe strongly that our brokerage and execution services are and have been rendered appropriately, professionally and correctly."

No matter how much the brokerage has advertised the ease of its trading platform, charts and research data, there are also ample disclaimers that your losses are your fault. It is going to be hard to sue to earn back money you have lost through your own trading habits. The simple truth is that if your reward is going up, so is your risk. So, make sure that you have a long-term, low-risk strategy in play with the majority of your nest egg.

And now, to the final question: Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average break through 35,000 by the year 2010? Most economists are smart enough to never get quoted as giving a specific number by a specific year! There are three laws of physics that explain 99% of what happens in the natural world, and 99 laws of economics that explain about 3% of what happens. Rather than say, yes or no, I'd like to do something I am comfortable with - I'd like to give you some important and sobering data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading in the 13,500 range, which is just 2000 points above where it was in 2000 (when it broke through 11,500 for the first time in history).  That's a gain of just 17% in seven years (or 1.7% each year on average).  Average large cap gains per year are at 10.66% annualized (every year since 1969), so the DOW has actually been underperforming its average gains since 2000.  Going from 13,500 this year to 35,000 in three years means the Dow Jones Industrial Average would more than DOUBLE, that is 259% gains in a 3-year period, or 86% gains per year for the next three years. That would be incredible performance after a period of lackluster gains for most of this decade.

Yes, we do have a lot of Baby Boomers entering retirement, and yes, with real estate softening, stock brokers are going to be able to convince more people to put more money in stocks. However, the growth of the U.S. economy, predicted to be just 2.9% in 2007, is too moderate to support 86% gains over the next three years. You certainly can and will see money attracted into the stock market, perhaps even at price to earnings ratios that are above what is healthy, but trying to time the markets based on crystal ball predictions that are relying on one set of data and not including recent statistics on GDP growth, corporate earnings, etc., is as foolhardy as roulette. The markets perform well over time, and you should be invested, based upon an asset protection plan that considers your age, risk tolerance and long term strategy. You should never be over-invested in any one asset - not real estate, stocks, bonds or cash.

Additionally, as I've said for years now, if I were to favor an exchange, I'd be favoring Ôup-and-coming' industries, like solar energy, alternative energy, Internet technology and new media, rather than the blue chips, many of which are suffering from legacy challenges (and are concentrated in the Dow Jones Industrial Average). There is no reason to buy into Coca-Cola at a 25 price to earnings ratio, when the company is only posting 5% growth per year. Be an informed investor! Don't just plunk yourself into "mutual funds," for the sake of being invested in the stock market. Below are a few articles you should read if you are just now becoming interested in the stock market.


Articles of Interest:
The Perfect Cyber Broker
: Missing the Greed Chip. Vol. 4, iss. 1. Learn how to tell if your broker is working in your best interest with one easy question.
The Secret of Wealth: Double Your Fun Budget. By Natalie Pace. Vol. 4, iss. 3.
Faded Blue Chips. Vol. 3, iss. 8. (August 2006)
Wow! Dow! Or NASDAQ Now? A Contrast in Cash and Debt. By Natalie Pace. Including a Nasdaq vs. Dow Stock Report Card. Vol. 3, iss. 11 (November 2006)

IMPORTANT EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITY:
The best way for you to get informed and get a plan that can serve you now and for the rest of your life is to come to my Living the Rich Life Retreat, June 18-21, 2007. In just four days of fun, but intense work, in a small group setting, your life and your investing habits will forever be changed and placed on the right track! Read the article in this month's ezine for more information, and click on the Living the Rich Life banner ad on the home page at NataliePace.com to find out more. To ensure that you have a seat at this EXTREMELY LIMITED opportunity, email Heather@NataliePace.com or phone 866-476-7442 NOW!

Stock Market Overview:
As you can see below, the stock market over the last year and a half has been a wonderful place to be. If you were invested, chances are you are earning wonderful gains.

General Stock Market Performance

Wednesday, 1.3.2006

Wednesday, 1.3.2007

Friday, 5.11.2007

Gains 12 & 4 months

Dow: 10,847.41

Dow: 12,474.52

Dow: 13,326.62

+23% & +7%

Nasdaq: 2,243.74

Nasdaq: 2,423.16

Nasdaq: 2,562.22

+14% & +6%

S&P: 1,268.80

S&P: 1,416.60

S&P: 1,505.85

+18.6% & +6.3%


Good-Bye Summer Doldrums:
Typically, the summer is dull at best, and can be downright disappointing, as you can see from the following chart of returns. August is when most Wall Street professionals take their vacation, trading volume tapers off and thus, with less demand, you typically see flat performance over the summer, with July and August trading off gains and losses.

Following are average monthly returns from March 1971 through October 2003, which were provided by Odyssey Advisors.

Period

S&P 500

Nasdaq

November - January

1.88%

2.53%

November - June

1.39%

1.52%

July - October

0.21%

-0.13%

Full Year

1.00%

0.97%


By month, average returns were as followsÉ

Month

S&P 500

NASDAQ

Jan.

2.05%

3.77%

Feb.

0.49%

0.66%

March

1.21%

0.40%

April

1.52%

1.35%

May

1.28%

0.95%

June

1.02%

1.23%

July

0.11%

-0.21%

Aug.

0.54%

0.33%

Sept.

-1.02%

-1.14%

Oct.

1.20%

0.48%

Nov.

1.82%

1.95%

Dec.

1.78%

1.87%

Source: Odyssey Advisors

In election years, however, the markets have, historically, taken a different track. In 2003, while there was still a sideways trend in August and September, the overall track for the year was strong gains - especially in the NASDAQ.

The trend line for 1999, another pre-election year, looked very similar. Also, note how strong the Santa Rally trend is in both years, with 10-50% gains in the last four months of the year.

We are in a pre-election year and enjoying a stock market rally this summer. Despite the concern over the real estate market and subprime mortgage lenders, the general feeling about Wall Street is that people want to be invested! Should be a delightful year. Enjoy! Educate yourself! Invest wisely!

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:

    1. Interest Rates: In a Pause Pattern. The Federal Open Market Committee has paused seven times in a row now (in May, March and January 2007, December, October, September and August 2006), after raising interest rates 17 consecutive times prior. The federal funds rate remains at 5-Å%. The next meeting is scheduled for June 27-28, 2007.

    2. Interested in reading the Press Release of the May FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. It is available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! According to the FOMC, "Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures."

      The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2007 calendar is: June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday), September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is an indicator that there is double the concern over managing the economy in the coming months.

    3. Pundits are positing that the Feds may be preparing to cut rates before the end of the year. That move usually serves to stimulate the markets, which is one of the reasons that I expect 2007 to be an up year for most of the marketplace. There is one BIG exception, however. Many Blue Chips with exceptionally large pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (like health care) burdens are still very overvalued when you consider the amount of debt that they are carrying and the tough time that they are having being competitive in industries where there are other companies that do not have to support a large pool of non-workers.
    4. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testified Before the U.S. Congress' Joint Economic Committee on March 28, 2007, on the economic outlook of the U.S. Click on Ben's name to access a written copy of his testimony or go to the FederalReserve.gov website.

    5. Online Chats: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money managers, economists, respected money gurus and CEOs! Please enter the chat room now to make sure that you know how to do it and that you don't have any firewall issues preventing you from accessing the room. (You'll need your passwords.) On Wednesday, June 13th, we will feature respected life and fitness coach, Gary Kobat, who will discuss his new his resurfacing procedure (like the surgery Tour de France winner Floyd Landis had done).

    6. Calendar Section: On June 18-21, 2007, Natalie Pace will host an intimate group for her second Living the Rich Life Retreat. The next retreat, scheduled for January 2008, will host hundereds of individuals. This is your last opportunity to learn one-on-one in a small group setting from the woman who has been beating Wall Street going into her eighth year running! Learn her tricks. Visit Dr. Reverend Michael Bernard Beckwith's Agape Sanctuary. Prepare to hyper-charge your life. Find out more information on the event by reading the article in this month's ezine and at the banner ad at NataliePace.com. REGISTER NOW to ensure that you get a seat!

Bottom Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information, but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your age, your retirement goals, and your risk tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission of providing the news and information you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.

Full disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own or intend to buy under the column "NP OWNS?"

Hot News on Cool Stocks List

Highlighted Companies (Hot List):
Altair Nanotechnology (ALTI)
Genentech (DNA)
Jet Blue (JBLU)
Krispy Kreme (KKD)
Satcon (SATC)
Siruis Satellite Radio (SIRI)
UQM Technologies (UQM)
WisdomTree (WSDT)

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them or if you are willing to come in at a higher price). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

5.25.07

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Altair Nanotechnology

No

ALTI

$3.11

$3.11

$4.10

$2.48

--

Read the Article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, iss. 6.

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$85.38

($83.93 on 2.27.07)

$113.16

$115.00

$50.16

+32.5% &

35%

Barclay's Global Investors just purchased over 5% interest in Apple on January 13, 2007. Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt joined the Apple board of directors in Oct. 2006. The internal investigation at Apple revealed that Steve Jobs did NOT directly benefit from any back-dated options, but that he "was aware that favorable grant dates had been selected" according to a company press release. The board at Apple is standing behind Jobs. More ink could follow, though most of the major press orgs are barely mentioning the problem, focusing instead on the sexy new Apple iPhone. The popularity of the iPod and the dominance that Jobs is gaining with his alliances with Disney and Google should keep Apple at the top of the technology performers over the next few years at minimum. On the other hand, headlines on the options backdating scandals could spook investors into selling. The price is high, and the new iPhone isn't going to be released until June. If there is any bad news in the meantime, there may be a buying opportunity. (However, Apple has done a smash-up job of luring consumers, investors and reporters to focus on products and sales, which are mind-boggling, instead of the SEC investigation.) Apple is a company you're going to want to own - and everyone wishes they'd had the prescience to buy in at a better price. On 1.9.07, Apple(R) announced that more than two billion songs, 50 million television episodes and over 1.3 million feature-length films have been purchased and downloaded from the iTunes(R) Store (www.itunes.com), making it the world's most popular online music, TV and movie store. If you want in now, there are a lot of great reasons to jump into the iStore phenomenon. Jobs is a genius, and the world is his oyster.

Citigroup

DIVIDENDS 4.31%!

No

C

$50.38

$55.12

$57.00

$43.83

+9.4%

Refer to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup's appeal. According to an Associated Press report on 11.29.06, Citigroup will be one of the first banks operating in China. Global Strategist Marc Miles says, "Citigroup has bought a significant stake in one of the ailing banks. They were willing to absorb huge existing debt in order to get in. But when you look at the population and the growing wealth, that looks like a good long term investment." China is due to open its banking sector fully to foreign competition by Dec. 11 under conditions set when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Purchased AkBank on 1.09.07. Akbank currently has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a premier, full-service retail, commercial, corporate and private bank in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6 billion and a deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the third largest bank by assets and the most profitable private banking institution in the country. Hired new CFO, Gary Crittenden, on 2.25.07, to be effective 3.15.07. (Sallie Krawcheck will return to her old job as Chairman and CEO of Citi's Global Wealth Management.) Sandy Weill spoke on CNBC on 2.26.07 on having such a big company with an umbrella over many divisions. He says, "The model really works especially right now, when we have very good times in the economy. Emerging markets are doing very well. Everybody is contributing to prosperity. I'd rather be with a company that has a strong capital base, diversified by companies and regions, in the event of a downturn." Regarding interest rates and the ease of securing money these days, Sandy commented, "Money is very readily accessible, and interest rates are very low. Who would have thought that the Feds would raise rates and the Treasury market would stay flat?"

Disney

Dividends: .92%

No

DIS

$25.08

$36.03

$36.79

$23.77

+44%

Announced1Q earnings on 2.7.07. Revenues were up 10% from the year prior, to $9.7 billion. Net income more than doubled, at $1.7 billion, over $734 million the year prior. Wow! Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film company meets the most successful family media company meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds like the happiest place on Earth to us. The largest individual stockholder is Steve Jobs. During the first quarter of fiscal 2007, the Company repurchased 29 million shares for $957 million. As of December 30, 2006, the Company had authorization in place to repurchase approximately 177 million additional shares, of which the Company has repurchased 18 million shares for $632 million subsequent to quarter-end through February 2, 2007. Cash on hand: $2.4 billion. Debt: $12.3 billion. Market cap: $72 billion. Pirates of the Caribbean blockbusters equal film profits, DVD profits and renewed interest in the theme parks! According to the annual report, CEO Bob Iger received $22 million in compensation last year (not including stock options). His pay included $2 million salary and a $15 million cash bonus. The company's annual shareholders meeting was on March 8 at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans. In his keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show, Bob Iger said, "Since the day Mickey dared to speak in a `talkie,' Disney has boldly taken its content to the cutting edge. Wherever the path of unfolding technologies and imaginative new platforms may lead, Disney will be there. Year in and year out, we are proud to bring our creative content to your innovative products." CEO Bob Iger was one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.

eBay

Yes

eBAY

$29.75

$32.65

$35.41

$22.83

+10%

See the articles, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in volume 3, issue 9, "Executives of the Year" in January 2007, which featured CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss. 1). Skype's new products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware) will likely start adding a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line by the first quarter of 2007, since Skype is growing faster than MySpace in terms of registered users, at 171 million as of December 31, 2006. According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." eBay bought StubHub Inc. for $310 million on 1.12.07. StubHub said it generated about $100 million in revenue in 2006 on $400 million gross ticket sales. Reported year end results on 1.31.07: eBay reported record consolidated Q4-06 net revenues of $1.7 billion, representing a growth rate of 29% year over year. GAAP net income in Q4-06 was $346 million, or $0.25 earnings per diluted share, an increase of 24% year over year. For the full year, eBay generated consolidated net revenues of $6.0 billion, a 31% increase over the $4.6 billion generated in 2005. Consolidated net income increased 4% year over year to $1.1 billion, or $0.79 earnings per diluted share. The company repurchased approximately 31 million shares of its common stock at a total cost of approximately $1.0 billion during the quarter, for a cumulative total cost of approximately $1.7 billion since the program was announced in July 2006. The company may purchase up to an additional $300 million. According to CEO Meg Whitman, "All three of the company's business units delivered impressive results this quarter, including record net revenues from our Marketplaces business, strong total payment volume on PayPal, and a triple-digit increase in the number of Skype users."

GAP

No

GPS

$20.30

$17.50 (3.16.07)

$18.18

$37.02

$15.91

-10% &

+4%

See the article, "Gap's Inc(RED)ible Campaign," from vol. 3, iss. 12. Poor holiday performance resulted in the resignation of the President and CEO Paul Pressler, Gap Inc., and a number of division heads at Gap and Old Navy, including the resignation of Charlotte Neuville, 54, head designer for Gap North America. In the "show me your friends and I'll tell you who you are" category, the friends surrounding Gap these days are mighty, powerful and successful. You've got Goldman Sachs advising them on the turnaround strategy. GAP is one of an elite group of companies that are attached to PRODUCT (RED), the pet project of Bono and Bobby Shriver, alongside Apple, American Express, Motorola, Emporio Armani and more. Bob Fisher, interim president and chief executive officer of Gap Inc. said in the earnings press release of 3.1.07, "In 2007, we are focusing on three priorities: fixing our core business by creating the right product and outstanding store experiences; retaining and developing the best talent in the industry; and examining our organizational structure to ensure that we enable our brands to make decisions and effect change more efficiently. I am confident that we are taking the necessary actions to revitalize our brands." The fast, definitive action, the ongoing commitment to Bono and Bobby Shriver's PRODUCT (RED) and having Goldman Sachs in their corner really sets the stage for some promising surprises for this legacy clothing retailer. Especially if the team comes up with a winning designer. Things could hardly be worse for the Gap, and with the talent assembled for this turnaround, we're optimistic that it is always darkest before the dawn.

Eastern Europe -- U.S. Global Investors

No

EUROX

$33.87

$47.01

$50.00

$23.02

+39%

Vanguard seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries, in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund should reflect the difference.

Genentech

No

DNA

$13.50

$81.13 (12.30.06)

$77.54

$100.20

$75.58

+474% &

-4%

Purchased Tanox on 1.16.07. Received 8 FDA approvals in 2006. The FDA approved the use of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage breast cancer on 11.17.06. DNA is a Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply to the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs. Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone is expected to bring in $2 billion in annual sales in 2007. Genentech reported record annual earnings results on 1.10.07: U.S. product sales of $7,169 million, a 39% increase over sales of $5,162 million in 2005 and GAAP net income of $2.113 billion, a 65% increase over net income of $1.279 billion in 2005. Tarceva is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $402 million in 2006. DNA's P/E ratio is well below other biotechnology growth companies. On 4.12.07, they exceeded analyst earnings expectations for the 2nd straight quarter.

Google (Green)

No

GOOG

$85

$483.52

$513.00

$331.55

+469%

Google joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Owns YouTube.com, one of the most popular sites on the web, which just got hit with a billion dollar lawsuit from Viacom on 3.13.07. YouTube is working hard with studios and music publishers to get licenses in place, however, the lawsuit puts on pressure to get this done very quickly. We'll keep you posted. $48 million sold so far by insiders in Dec. 2006 and Jan. 2007; $14 million by Eric Schmidt. Dr. Eric Schmidt was one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1. Google reported 4Q revenues of $3.21 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, an increase of 67% compared to the fourth quarter of 2005 and an increase of 19% compared to the third quarter of 2006. Net income was $1.03 billion. In the 2nd quarter of 2007, stock options granted in 2004 will become vested, and employees could have a lot of fun cashing in. Google anticipates taking up to $160 million on earnings for these vested options. Keep your radar up for news in July 2007, when the 2nd quarter earnings report should be released. The growth continues to be amazing, and the share price continues to be amazingly volatile! The savvy daytrader would buy on disappointment and sell on hot headlines. The long-term investor would buy at the 52-week low and hold to will to the kids. (Notice that Google is NOT highlighted and is not considered to be a good buy right now.) You can listen to a webcast of the April 19th earnings call at http://investor.google.com/webcast.html.

Intel

No

INTC

$19.13

$22.16

$22.50

$16.75

+16%

See "Apple Chips," article in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices in products and price. AMD is fighting back in court and by slashing costs. The price war is tough on both, but easier for Goliath to win.  Intel's sales were down (largely due to AMD competition) from $38.8B in 2005 to $35.38B in 2006.  A Good Blue Chip long term hold for your portfolio, with dividends.

Intuit

No

INTU

$31.72

$27.36 (4.1.07)

$30.28

$35.98

$22.93

-4.5% & +10.7%

According to Google CEO Eric Schmidt, "We continue to forge significant partnerships with companies such as eBay, Fox Interactive Media, and Intuit that will be of great value to all involved." Intuit Inc. reported on 10.30.06 that the Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its investigation into the software maker's stock option accounting practices without taking any punitive action. Growth is primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks software and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. Intuit typically posts a seasonal loss in its first quarter when it has little revenue from its tax businesses. According to Amazon.com, Intuit has seven of the top 10 bestsellers for office and business, including the top four bestsellers. The quarter with April 15, 2007 earnings is the quarter that should be interesting.

Jet Blue

RISK: HIGH

No

JBLU

$12.81

$10.84

$17.02

$8.93

-15.4%

In February 2007, JetBlue's grounding of planes due to snow storms iced the stock, but we think things will thaw in Spring and Summer, as business and family travelers climb back onboard. "We think recent operational shortcomings will be addressed and will not side-track the company's 'return to profitability' plan," said Michael Linenberg, an analyst for the Merrill Lynch research firm. "Also, the 22% sell-off in the shares since mid-January represents an attractive entry point." The share price could be bumpy now through the next earnings call in April. If you invest in JetBlue, bear in mind that a spike in gas or oil prices would severely ping profitability at the airline. Fuel is one of the biggest expenses of any carrier, and operating margins are sliver thin. JetBlue ended the fourth quarter and full year with $699 million in cash and investment securities (1.31.07).

Krispy Kreme

RISK: HIGH

No

KKD

$10.22

$8.42

$13.83

$7.14

-17.6%

Have you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? According to Daryl Brewster, President and Chief Executive Officer, "The Company has agreed to settle the class action lawsuit and most of the shareholder derivative litigation. Average unit volumes rose at Company-owned stores. Krispy Kreme continued its international expansion while filling several key management positions critical to achieving sustained growth." KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. If you love their product, KKD's CEO has proven to be a turnaround specialist, and he's done a great job over the past year. KKD caught up with all of their SEC filings on 1.29.07, and is looking to the future now. KKD refinanced old debt on 2.17.07. The company just announced the whole wheat doughnut? Hmmm or yummm? Lynn Crump-Caine and C. Stephen Lynn were recently nominated for director posts. June 4 shareholder meeting. Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. on Tuesday said that its chief financial officer is leaving the doughnut chain to return to investment banking.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$35.30 (11.11)

$56.94

$68.80

$26.26

+61%

Read "Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers accordingly. On 1.25.07, the Company reported net sales of $420.5 million, which represents an increase of over 10% from the second quarter level of $370.5 million. Net income was $129 million. MEMC ended the fourth quarter with cash and short-term investments of $585.5 million, compared to $451.9 million at the end of the prior quarter. During the 3rd quarter, MEMC Electronics finalized its $5-$6 billion solar wafer agreement with Suntech. As part of the agreement, the company received a warrant to purchase up to a 4.9% equity stake in Suntech. Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC's CEO, reports "For the full year 2006, MEMC grew revenue by almost 40%, resulting in the company crossing over the one-and-a-half billion dollar mark in revenues. Our financial performance and profitability improved significantly in almost every category in 2006 including operating profit, which more than doubled versus the prior year, gross margin which grew to a record $689 million, or almost 45% of sales, and non-GAAP EPS, which also more than doubled compared to 2005. In addition, we achieved a return on assets (net income divided by average total assets) greater than 25%, operating cash flow of 34% of sales and free cash flow of 25% of sales." MEMC will receive $2.5 billion to $3 billion in revenue from sales of the wafers over the 10-year period from Taiwan's Gintech Energy (solar). MEMC also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent interest in Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel of land of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located within the Hsinchu Science Park. Announces earnings on 4.26.07. Has exceeded analyst earnings estimates for 2 straight quarters.

NetGear

No

NTGR

$12.42

$34.79

$37.03

$16.64

+178%

Watch Natalie Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online. It's a great product that allows you to connect to Skype and call anyone worldwide anywhere there is a WiFi signal. An October report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by 2010. 4Q And full year 2006 earnings were released on February 15, 2007. 2006 net revenue increased to $573.6 million, 28% year-over-year growth. Net income, computed in accordance with GAAP, for 2006 was $41.1 million or $1.19 per diluted share. This net income was a 22% increase compared to net income of $33.6 million for 2005. Announces earnings on 4.26.07.

News Corp.

Vol. 2, iss. 10

Dividends: .54%

RISK: LOW

No

NWS

$15.88

$22.36

$25.40

$18.18

+41%

Owns Fox, MySpace, and print publications. Just sold DirecTV. News Corp. has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0 billion. DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss Sunshine and Napoleon Dynamite. Universal Music Group is suing Myspace, but previous hard stances against AOL, Yahoo and YouTube were settled once the companies agreed to pay royalties for the songs. MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson were our Executives of the Year in 2006. Read the article in vol. 3, iss. 1. On 2.8.07, Rupert Murdoch spoke out on a number of key issues. Murdoch said that revenue from MySpace and other sites such as gaming news network IGN, which make up the company's Fox Interactive Media unit, could hit $1 billion in the company's next fiscal year, which ends in June 2008. He added that sales from FIM could wind up representing as much as 10 percent of News Corp.'s total revenue within the next five years. Regarding selling DirecTV to Liberty Media, Murdoch said that he still believed satellite TV was a great market for News Corp. in Europe and Asia but that competing in the U.S. has grown difficult since DirecTV cannot offer the bundled packages of Internet access, video and voice that cable and phone companies can. "The appeal of the triple play, and potentially the quadruple play with mobile, is tough to compete with," he said.

Opsware

See issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.

RISK: MEDIUM

No

OPSW

$1.80

$8.22

$9.90

$6.23

+356%

Named to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious Technology Fast 50 Program for Silicon Valley on 10.26.06. It was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's Network Automation System. CEO Ben Horowitz said, in March of 2006, that the Cisco deal just started kicking in August of 2006, and that the best is yet to come. Opsware automates the complete IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically discover, provision, patch, configure, secure, change, scale, audit, recover, consolidate, migrate, and reallocate servers, network devices and applications. Over 350 of the world's largest companies, outsourcers and government agencies use Opsware to deliver this new, automated model of IT. Read the Company of the Year article in vol. 1, iss. 44. Surpassed $100 million in revenue for full year 2006 ($101.7 million), up 67% over the prior year! On April 4, 2007, the analyst firm IDC identified Opsware Inc. OPSW as the market share leader and the fastest growing vendor in the worldwide network change and configuration management (NCCM) market for the period 2005-2006. Opsware took the top spot with 31.4 percent of market share in 2006, more than 10 share points ahead of the closest competitor.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

Trading near 52-week low.

NataliePace.com's 2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.

RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH

No

OSIP

$36.86

$33.00 (4.1.07)

$37.14

$43.17

$22.04

+1% &

+12%

OSIP lost $223.1 million in the 4th quarter, largely due to impairment and acquisition costs of Macugen eye disease treatment business and Eyetech, a company OSIP purchased last year. For the full year, OSIP lost $582.2 million, or $10.22 per share, compared with a loss of $157.1 million, or $3.02 per share, in 2005. Revenue rose to $375.7 million from $174.2 million. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer pill," and sales have been exploding, up to $402 million in 2006, after being approved by the FDA in just 2004. OSIP is a partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer. Industry sales data has placed the cancer drug market's value at more than $20 billion annually and it is growing fast.

Satcon

No

SATC

$1.24

$1.24

$2.33

$.73

--

Read the article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," from vol. 4, iss. 6.

Sirius

$6.3 Bil Market Cap

RISK: HIGH

No

SIRI

$3.85

$2.90

$4.84

$2.72

-24.7%

Sirius and XM Satellite Radio issued a joint press release on February 20, 2007 saying that they will combine the companies, for an "enterprise" value of $13 billion and net debt of $1.6 billion. Mel Karmazin remains CEO of the combined company, while Gary Parsons, the CEO of XM-SR, will become the Chairman. You can access the February earnings call at: http://investor.sirius.com/. The merger is being challenged in Congress and hearings have begun in the matter. Sirius and XM issued a joint release, saying, "The commission's published rules do not prohibit one satellite radio licensee from acquiring control of the other." This story is developing and we will keep you posted. In the meantime, Sirius has launched backseat tv on Chrysler cars beginning in 2008, and is a factory installed option for Land Rovers and Mini hard tops. Reports earnings May 1, 2007. XM-SR and SIRI both just posted a smaller loss due to a spike in subscription revenue. (This was first reported on the home page, in our Daily Bread quote section, on 4.30.07. Be sure to check our home page daily for updates and information!)

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

918.7 Mil Market Cap

RISK: HIGH

No

SOHU

$17.52

$25.30

$27.58

$20.21

+44%

See NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs of the year in 2007. Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network. Financial Times ranked Sohu in the Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6 days after our first feature article). Sohu was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Could be some bumps in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it. Announced 4Q and full year earnings on 2.5.07: Record advertising revenues of US$91.8 million, up 29% year-on-year. Fiscal 2006 GAAP net income of US$25.9 million or US$0.68 per fully diluted share year. Dr. Charles Zhang says, "I have full confidence that our competitive advantage in technology will solidify Sohu's leadership position in the China Internet space, especially in the brand advertising market." Ms. Carol Yu, Co-president and CFO of Sohu.com, stated, "Our primary focus continues to be on our core advertising business, which contributed 68% of our total revenues for fiscal year 2006. Our outlook remains bullish, especially during the run-up to the 2008 Olympics. Our most enviable role as Internet Sponsor of the Beijing 2008 Olympics is the most important differentiating factor between Sohu and other Internet companies." As of December 31, 2006, Sohu's cash, cash equivalents and investments in marketable debt securities balance was US$129.7 million.

SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)

No

STP

$25.83

$35.26

$45.95

$19.00

+36.5%

See vol. 4, iss. 1 for our Company of the Year article, which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for our article on solar energy. On February 21, 2007, Suntech's CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable on Climate Change which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable brings together more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders from all regions of the world. On 2.15.07, STP announced that it had raised $500 million in a public debt offering of senior note convertibles, due in 2012. STP had to raise its offering due to strong demand (a very good sign). STP and the University of New South Wales signed a new $1.2 million collaborative research agreement through 2007 with a $3 million extension through 2010. Suntech will supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world's largest solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. ''I am very pleased that our team has yet again proven that Suntech is the industry leader in combining world class R&D advancements with high quality products while maintaining the lowest cost per watt solution, bringing us one large step closer to being the first solar manufacturer to reach grid parity,'' CEO Shi said, commenting on the development of "semiconductor finger technology." Dr. Shi is one of our Executives of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

See vol. 2, iss. 8

No

TREMX

$20.72

$33.59

$35.00

$12.00

+62%

See vol. 4, issue 3 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France. International investing in the right sectors and countries pays off!

Time-Warner

(owns AOL)

Dividends: 1.13%

RISK: Low

No

TWX

$16.76

$21.51

$23.15

$15.70

+28%

See vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace" for a report card that features Time-Warner. TWX's The Departed won Best Picture of the Year! AOL and Time-Warner have finally figured out how to work together. Chairman & CEO Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn, and Mr. Parsons has proven to be a decisive and visionary leader in other matters as well. On May 9, 2007, Chris Albrecht, the former Chairman and CEO of Home Box Office, was let go, after choking his girlfriend in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino, after the Oscar de la Hoya and Floyd Mayweather Jr. title fight. Karla Jensen, Albrecht's girlfriend, is declining to press charges, but the LA Times reported that this was the second choking incident of Albrecht's. Albrecht has apologized, admitted that his behavior was inappropriate and will seek help for his "drinking problem." TWX is buying back company stock. According to Mr. Parsons, "We remain committed to delivering superior returns to our shareholders by driving execution, generating industry-leading operating and financial results, and allocating our capital effectively. In addition to targeting resources to key growth areas of our businesses, our $20 billion share repurchase program -- which recently surpassed one billion shares of our common stock bought to date -- continues to be an attractive investment at current price levels." In the 1st Q 2007, Revenues rose 9% over the same period in 2006 to $11.2 billion, led by growth at the Cable segment. Net debt is still high, compared to cash flow, at $34.0 billion.

Trina Solar Limited

RISK: Medium

Chinese-based ADR

No

TSL

$44.08

$48.94

$68.90

$17.05

+11%

See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article "Green Hits the Mainstream," and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for other articles on solar energy. This is a profitable solar energy company, based out of China. The international management team is very strong, as are sales, growth and profitability.

UQM Technologies

No

UQM

$3.97

$3.97

$5.50

$2.19

--

Read the article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," from vol. 4, iss. 6.df

U.S. Gold

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$4.00 on

3.16.07

$5.54

$10.30

$.35

+10% &

+38.6%

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network. Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, was awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award in 2006 by Canadian Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star Execs roundup." On Nov. 3, 2006, Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, and his wife Cheryl McEwen were honored by Tiffany & Co. with the 2006 Tiffany Mark Award. The Tiffany Mark Award honors men and women who are making their "mark" professionally and in their community through tireless efforts on behalf of charities and organizations they care about deeply. The McEwens are avid philanthropists, particularly in the field of medicine. Motley Fool just added U.S. Gold to their "5 Low-Priced, High-Star Stocks" on 2.6.07. As more press comes on board, the price should reflect the wooing of Wall Street investors. (Now, if the company strikes gold, we'll all be geniusesÉ)

World Water & Power

VERY HIGH RISK

Trading off the boards

No

WWAT

$.59

$.65

$.81

$.14

+10%

See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article "Green Hits the Mainstream, and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This is a very high-risk company in the solar-energy/water purification sector.

Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)

No

PBW

$16.82

$19.61

$24.08

$14.97

+16.5%

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises on the good or bad news of alternative energy companies which it may not even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year on bad news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply, even though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings on 1.12.07: SunPower, OM Group, Ballard, Energy Conversion Devices, SunTech, Ormat, Evergreen, Ormat and MEMC Electronic Materials.

WisdomTree

Yes

WSDT

$8.70

$6.10

$9.94

$3.15

-29.9%

See vol. 4, issue 3, "Money Grows on WisdomTrees." This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, and trades on earnings instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a war chest of capital and a former SEC chairman as one of the senior advisors.


Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell (NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains. Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains, Agilent on 2.1.07 with flat performance, and RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains on 2.1.07. Blockbuster ran up 82.5% in gains, which we cashed in on February 12, 2007.

Stocks to Watch
Great Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better price), if you believe the news on future potential. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Recent Deletions:
Intel (moved to the Hot News list on 4.1.07)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

5.25.07

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Advanced Micro Devices

No

AMD

$16.22

$14.76

$42.70

$12.10

-9%

Read the "Apple Chips" article in vol. 4, iss. 2 for our take on the current battle between AMD and Intel. AMD's strategy of litigate to win loses, in our view. In tech, the geeks beat the suits. Better products win, not law suits. The most recent losses that AMD has taken (due to an acquisition they made and the price squeeze on products that Intel put them in) have also led to rumors that the company is in a cash crunch. Intel looks more promising in today's climate, if the price is right, but AMD is worthy of keeping an eye on. AMD's sales were down from $5.8B in 2005 to $5.6B in 2006. Intel is now on our Hot News list.

Goldcorp

No

GG

$22.73

$22.86

$41.66

$17.49

flat

As you can see from the 52-week high, GG's price is not unreasonable, however, we like keeping an eye on good companies like this, just waiting for weakness in the sector to cause a more attractive buy-in rate. Goldcorp has more upside potential, in our view, than most of the other larger gold companies, like Newmont. For a high risk gold company, check out U.S. Gold on the Hot News list.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$28.34

$30.48

$31.39

$21.45

+7.6%

World's largest software company. $31 billion in cash. Launched Zune on Nov. 14, 2006 and Vista earlier this year. New products have not received "buzz" or outstanding sales. The latest ruling that Microsoft has to pay $1.52 billion to Alcatel Lucent is a blow to any music service that didn't license MP3 technology with Alcatel, including, potentially, Apple. Great blue chip for your long term portfolio because with the war chest and talent at MSFT, even this year's assembly line of flops shouldn't bring the company down, although it may bring out the firing rod. Will pressure come down on Steve Ballmer, CEO? Trading at a 52-week high, so waiting for a better buy-in opportunity might yield better returns.


Cooling Off Stocks List:

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):

Fannie Mae (FNM)
 

Cooling Off Stocks (that may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price). Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note, that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 5.25.07

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

Fannie Mae

No

FNM

$60.38

$64.56

$62.95

$45.93

+6.8%

Spending $1 billion on accounting fees related to the accounting scandal. Fannie Mae is behind on filing 2005 and 2006 annual reports. If it fails to file the reports by December 31, 2007, the company could be delisted. (In the meantime, FNM is subject to quarterly review by the NYSE.) And yet investors are still in to the tune of $58.44 billionÉ. Are you? Better check your mutual funds. The recent subprime lending fallout doesn't bode well for FNM. According to the AP, "Maintaining strong asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie Mae, given the recent weakening of housing values from the very strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard and Poor's has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae.

General Motors

Yes

GM

$32.35

$34.67 (11.13)

$30.49

$36.83

$24.52

-5.7% &

-12%

See the article "Faded Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. According to the AP, Delphi could be in trouble with investors who are offering to help them emerge from bankruptcy, if they do not get concessions from their labor force by February 28, 2007. The UAW issued a press release on February 1, 2007, writing, "Neither the company nor the potential investors has demonstrated a willingness to resolve the substantial issues which divide us." Delphi used to be a division of GM, and GM has a stake in the company and in their labor force obligations. Delphi reported a $2 billion loss for the 3rd quarter. According to GM's annual earnings report, "We believe that we are competitively disadvantaged because we provide pension benefits and OPEB, consisting of both retiree health care and life insurance, to more than 400,000 retirees and surviving spouses in the United States." Additionally, GM has financial obligations to Delphi's workers, which kick in if Delphi doesn't meet it's obligations. Almost every risk factor which GM listed in the annual report has occurred - prices for parts are higher due to the metals commodity crunch, gas prices have turned consumers to gas efficient vehicles, Delphi's position with the UAW is tenuous and liquidity over the long term is a question mark, unless they can turn things around. GM had a "net loss of $2.0 billion in 2006 and $10.4 billion in 2005," according to the SEC filing. Total debt is $38.7 billion, while GM's current value on Wall Street is only $16.56 billion.

KB Home

No

KBH

$59.00

$46.52

$56.08

$37.89

-21%

Chairman and CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating options. The company announced on 2.23.07 that the Department of Justice is also looking into the backdating issue, but assured investors that "KB Home is not a target of this investigation." It's hard to imagine that Karatz could be investigated and not KB Home, since he has been CEO since 1986 and Chairman and CEO since 1993! Karatz is scheduled to repay $13 million to the company, however, his retirement package has not been negotiated, meaning that his golden parachute could far exceed the $13 million he's promised to reimburse. Additionally, Karatz cashed out over $100 million in stock over the last two years. KBH missed filing 4Q report on time, due to SEC investigation into stock options. KBH will have to restate results for fiscal 2005, as well as the first two quarters of 2006, as a result of the incorrectly reported stock option grants. Moody's Investor Service has placed KBH on review status for a possible downgrade. Restated 4Q and full year earnings on 2.13.07. The Company incurred a net loss of $49.6 million, or $.64 per diluted share, in the 2006 fourth quarter, reflecting previously announced pretax non-cash charges of $343.3 million related to inventory and joint venture impairments, and the abandonment of land option contracts. In the fourth quarter of 2005, the Company reported net income of $304.4 million, or $3.44 per diluted share. The 1Q 2007 earnings release is late. In 2006 and 2005, the reports were issued at the end of February. No word from the company on when the earnings calls for Q1 will take place. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.

LifeCell

Vol. 1, iss. 55

No

LIFC

$31.06

$29.17

$32.60

$15.11

-6%

The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q Ô05 to reflect the recall. LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing rapidly, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not over. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. LifeCell has set up a testing program for anyone who received the BTS donor tissue. LifeCell has been named in "several" lawsuits related to this matter, according to the earnings report filed on 10.26.2006. "There can be no assurance that the level of insurance maintained will be sufficient to cover the claims or that the all of the claims will be covered by the terms of any insurance." There has been at least $15.5 million in insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months. LifeCell has a great product in high demand, but the potential fallout of the unscreened human tissue could be more than most small capitalization companies can take. The 4Q Earnings call on April 25, 2007 is available for you to listen to. Call (877) 704-5379 to listen in. Replays are available at (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820: The replay access code is 4423963.

Novastar Financial

No

NFI

$7.04

$6.96

$35.97

$3.25

-1.1%

See the article (Sub) Prime Time in the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 5.

Toll Brothers

No

TOL

$37.82

$29.96

$35.64

$22.22

-20.7%

1Q earnings on 2.22.07: first-quarter contracts totaled 1,027 units, down 33% from 1,544 units in the first quarter of FY 2006. 2007's first-quarter cancellation rate of 29.8% was lower than the 36.9% cancellation rate in fourth-quarter 2006. However, it was still well above the Company's historical average of about 7%. The company is trimming its exposure to optioned land, reducing lots to 67,500, from 83,200 just two years ago. Robert Toll, CEO, reports $1.1 billion in unused credit lines and $450 million in cash. 2007s first-quarter net income was $54.3 million, or $0.33 per share diluted, compared to 2006's first-quarter record of $163.9 million, or $0.98 per share diluted. Meanwhile, brother Bruce Toll continues his selling spree, which totals $49 million since September 2006 (source: MoneyCentral.Msn.com). Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5 in 2005, when we first reported on REITs as a burned out sector.


The following companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06. Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). (The cooling off list anticipates that a company will lose share price value.)

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


NataliePace.com Calendar:

The Santa Monica Pier and World’s First Solar-Energy Powered Ferris Wheel.

Don't miss the NataliePace.com Living the Rich Life Retreat, Placido Domingo at the Los Angeles Opera, the eWomen's Network Conference or a new nationwide batch of Peak Potentials Millionaire Mind Intensive conferences.


The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! Visit our calendar section often.

See below for just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar section at NataliePace.com.

 

Monday, June 18th, 2007
Living the Rich Life Retreat, Santa Monica, CA

Attend this 4-day beachfront retreat and create a new Living the Rich Life life plan, learn Natalie's trade-marked 3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits and attend Reverend Michael Bernard Beckwith's Agape Sanctuary. Call 866-476-7442 now or email Heather@NataliePace.com. Get more information at the Living the Rich Life banner ad on the home page at NataliePace.com.

Friday, June 1st, 007
Millionaire Mind Intensive: Calgary, AB and Seattle, WA

Peak Potentials Training is one of the fastest growing business & personal success training companies in N. America. Their mission is to educate and inspire people to live in their Higher Self based in Courage, Purpose and Joy, versus Fear, Need and Obligation. T. Harv Eker, the founder of Peak Potentials, is a NY Times bestselling author and a very successful, effective, respected life coach.

Sunday, June 3rd, 2007
Placido Domingo in LA Opera!

Don't miss this rare opportunity to see the virtuoso tenor, Placido Domingo, in Frederico Moreno Torroba's Luisa Fernanda.

Thursday, June 7th, 2007
eWomen's Network Expo and Conference

Featured speakers include: Carly Fiorina, Stedman Graham and more! Learn how to be daring, determined and dynamic, network with 2500 other business women from the U.S. and Canada and get inspired!

Wednesday, June 13th, 2007
Chat with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat.
8:45AM PT through 9:30AM PT (11:45 a.m. ET).

It's HIP to get a new hip. Gary Kobat, life and fitness coach to the stars, underwent hip resurfacing in India less than two months ago, after researching the best surgeon and procedure. Get information on his surgery and recovery and learn how to research your options before you undergo the knife.

Thursday, June 14th, 2007
Euro-American Women's Council, Greece

The mission is to build strategic alliances worldwide with women who are leaders in business, policymaking and dream building! Join, create and celebrate in one of the world's most magical places on the planet.


VISION: To build a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars, radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news, information and education, presented in an entertaining format, across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com, P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350 or 1-866.476.7442 (toll-free telephone number).

NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service, and does not operate or act as one.