TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.4 Issue 7 July 1st, 2007
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"Conventional
Total Hip Replacement, while being a good option for an elderly
person (above 70 years), is a poor choice for young patients,
as it will fail too rapidly. The hip resurfacing operation is
an alternative to hip replacement and has three crucial advantages:
it lasts a very long time, patients are encouraged to be very
active and the quality of the bone actually improves."
Dr. Vijay
Bose,
orthopedic
surgeon, specializing in hip resurfacing and hip replacement.
|
- Bionic Baby Boomers: New
Hips for Active Americans. By Natalie Pace. Includes a
Hip Resurfacing Stock Report Card.
- Get Hip! Like Tour de France
winner Floyd Landis, and Still Compete.
Q&A with Orthopedic Surgeon, Dr. Vijay Bose. By Natalie
Pace.
- It's Hip to Get a New Hip!
And Gary Kobat should know. 6 weeks post surgery, and
he's already back on the bike -- painfree. A reprint of
our June 13th online chat with Gary.
- Checking up on Cramer: Wonder how his picks are performing?
- Investing Over the Really, Really, Really Long
Term. How has the U.S. stock market fared
since 1825? By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey
Advisors, LLC.
- (Don't Be) Famous and Bankrupt:
Learn the Fool-Proof Get Rich and STAY RICH Plan. By Natalie
Pace.
- Montenegro - a Diamond in
the Rough. By Suanna Gurovich,
managing partner, Montenegro Realty.
- Peace = Prosperity. By
Natalie Pace. Experts reveal ways to reduce violence and
promote prosperity - in our classrooms, in our homes and
around the globe.
- Op-Ed: Biofuel:
Good
idea, Bad practice. By Sunita Narain.
- The Number One Blue Chip Stock Newsletter for
the Past 20 Years! By
Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends
stock newsletter.
- Sizzling Hot Summer Stocks!
By Natalie Pace. Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks list,
and one lovely company that doubled in share price between
April and July!
- NataliePace.com Calendar:
It's a month of schooling and wizardry - quite odd for
July wouldn't you say? Harry Potter's new film and book
are released and NataliePace.com subscribers learn about
the hip new hip resurfacing procedure that allows active
adults, like Floyd Landis, to compete post op.
|
 |
|
Bionic Baby Boomers:
by Natalie
Pace.
New
Hips for Active Americans.
Includes
a Hip
Resurfacing Stock Report Card.
 |
| 2006
Tour de France winner Floyd Landis. |
When you think about competitive advantage,
you know you've got a winner when the actual product is named after
the company. How many of us call our nose wipes, "Kleenex,"
tampons "Kotex," search "Google," and our soft
drinks "Cokes?" (Sorry guys, don't mean to offend.)
Well, within the medical community,
there is a new phenomenon where orthopedic surgeons are trained
in "BHR" surgery. BHR is the acronym for the Birmingham
Hip Resurfacing System, the hip resurfacing product of England's
Smith and Nephew (SNN), which was approved for use in the U.S. by
the FDA on May 9, 2006. By being the first company with an FDA-approved
product, Smith and Nephew also had a mandate to train 336 American
surgeons in BHR hip resurfacing techniques in 2006, and is continuing
the effort in 2007. FDA approval on the 2nd competitor
in this product arena is not expected until the second half of 2007,
giving Smith and Nephew over a full year's first mover advantage
in the U.S. for this new product and procedure.
So, if hip resurfacing
has only been in the U.S for only a year, is it risky? While there
is risk with any product or surgery in the health arena, the hip
resurfacing procedure is not as risky as you'd think. Even though
many orthopedic surgeons in the U.S. are just learning the name,
"hip resurfacing," surgeons in England have been using
hip resurfacing implants for qualified patients, instead of the
Total Hip Replacement, since 1995. In fact, with less than 500 U.S.
orthopedic surgeons trained to date, many U.S. patients are opting
to get the procedure done abroad, particularly in India, where the
cost of the surgery, including R&R at a resort spa, can be less
than the co-pays on many insurance plans in the U.S. (For more information,
read the article, "It's Hip to Get
a New Hip," featuring a Q&A with new hippy
Gary Kobat, our resident life and fitness coach to the stars.)
According to
Dr.
Vijay Bose, one of the most respected hip resurfacing
surgeons in the world, there are several distinct advantages of
hip resurfacing over Total Hip Replacement, especially for the younger,
more active patient. The device lasts longer, facilitates a very
active lifestyle with smaller risk of injury than the Total Hip
Replacement, and actually promotes improved bone quality. In an
email interview, Dr. Bose said that the implant "does not damage
the surrounding bone, like a conventional hip replacement, and the
quality of bone actually improves with time after hip resurfacing."
To read more
of my interview with Dr. Bose, read the "Get
Hip! Like Tour de France
winner Floyd Landis" article in this month's ezine. If you
have questions for Dr. Bose, you can ask him LIVE in the Natalie
Pace.com chat room on Wednesday, July 18th, 2007. Get
more information on the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
The Birmingham Hip Resurfacing System
has the longest clinical history of current resurfacing devices,
with more experience and more medical support data worldwide than
any other hip-resurfacing product. This track record is longer than
nearly all currently available metal-on-metal total hips as well.
The FDA approval was so clearly a win for Smith and Nephew in this
huge, new arena of the U.S. active patient marketplace that Wright
Medical Technology, Inc. tried to block the FDA approval of the
BHR. That petition, from October 2005, was denied on May 9, 2006
- the same day of the BHR FDA approval.
That isn't to say that marketing share
gains won't be rapid for some of these other companies, like Stryker,
Zimmer, DePuy (owned by Johnson & Johnson), Biomet and even
Wright Medical, once their hip resurfacing devices are approved.
In fact, according to the 2006 annual report of Smith and Nephew,
their presence in the general orthopedic marketplace is lower than
most of the competition - at 11% (plenty of room for growth!). According
to the report, "Principal global competitors in the orthopaedic
reconstruction market and their estimated 2006 global shares, are
Zimmer (29%), Stryker (20%), DePuy/Johnson & Johnson (22%) and
Biomet (11%)."
However, there
is that naming factor to consider - Google, Kleenex, Coke and BHR.
The leading orthopedic surgeons in the US are trained in BHR implants
for the hip resurfacing surgery, and these are the surgeons who
will likely get employed to train their colleagues. For a list of
surgeons who are trained in the U.S., go to the website SurfaceHippy.com.
The BHR is THE only product available
in the U.S. currently for the "active, informed" hip resurfacing
patient, and Smith and Nephew calculates that, in the US, patients
aged 64 and under represent 40% of the primary hip and knee replacement
market. This sector is expected to grow at twice the market rate.
Smith and Nephew has operations in
31 countries, and boasts of being:
- Global No 2 in trauma and clinical
therapies
- Global No 1 in arthroscopy
- Global No 2 in advanced wound management
- Global No 6 in reconstruction
Because Smith and Nephew is the market
leader in a new exploding consumer product and because Johnson and
Johnson has an impressive growth rate with a decent P/E (and is
the 2nd choice of hip resurfacing surgeons globally),
I have added both Smith and Nephew and Johnson and Johnson to
the Hot News List this month. Many orthopedic surgeons worldwide
are also using the DePuy ASR (Articular Surface Replacement) resurfacing
product, including Canada, Europe, India and Australia, although
it is still pending approval in the U.S. DePuy is owned by the mega-cap
corporation Johnson and Johnson.
Click to take
a look at the Hip
Resurfacing Stock Report Card.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors. Always discuss changes to
your portfolio with your certified financial planner.
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|
Get
Hip! Like Tour de France winner Floyd Landis, and Still Compete.
by Natalie Pace.
Q&A with Orthopedic
Surgeon, Dr. Vijay Bose.
 |
| Dr.
Vijay Bose with Gary Kobat after surgery in Chennai, India. |
Floyd Landis was 30. Mary Lou Retton
was 39. Our own Gary Kobat, life and fitness coach to the stars,
was 50. Each received the startling news that their hips were grinding
bone on bone, and each turned to a new procedure called "hip
resurfacing," for a chance at not just continuing to lead an
active life, but for the hope of competing again. According to the
Associated Press, Floyd Landis' new hip feels so good that if he'd
been eligible to defend his 2006 title, he would have competed this
year. (Landis is waiting to hear the ruling of The American Arbitration
Association as to whether or not he'll get to keep his title as
2006 champ of the Tour de France.)
Given the degeneration of their hips,
however, it's a win that Landis, Retton and Kobat can even enjoy
an active lifestyle, much less compete, and it's thanks to a new,
less invasive procedure, called hip resurfacing, that has become
the popular choice for athletes and younger, healthier people, rather
than the Total Hip Replacement. While hip resurfacing has been practiced
internationally for over a decade, the procedure has only been approved
by the FDA and available in the United States for the past year.
And, even though it is available here, many Americans are still
opting to get their surgery abroad, particularly in India, where
surgeons have performed thousands of hip resurfacing procedures,
compared to the one year of experience that most specialized American
orthopedists have under their knife.
According to Gary Kobat, who received
his new hip two months ago, cost is also a reason to consider India.
Gary says, "The cost in L.A. was $55,000. London: $28,000.
Belgium: $19,000 and India: $15,000. My medical insurance still
had out of pocket of approximately $19,000. Whereas the entire trip
to India, including spa recovery, was $15,000."
Of course, before you book your surgery
and travel flight to India, you need to know who qualifies for the
resurfacing procedure. How long does the hip last? Should you really
compete after surgery, or are these athletes going to regret pushing
their joints so hard in another five or ten years?
To learn more about the difference
between Total Hip Replacement and Hip Resurfacing and the experience
of the doctors in India over those in the U.S., we turned to one
of the most respected hip resurfacing surgeons in the world - Dr.
Vijay Bose, of the Asian Regional Center for Hip Resurfacing (ARCH)
Clinic in Chennai, India. As you can see from the below chart, patients
are traveling the globe to have Dr. Bose perform their hip resurfacing
surgery.

Countries from which patients
have traveled to ARCH for hip resurfacing surgeries.
Can you explain in layman's language
the difference between hip resurfacing and total hip replacement?
Hip resurfacing is a technique invented specifically for younger
patients with hip problems. Conventional Total Hip Replacement,
while being a good option for an elderly person (above 70 years),
is a poor choice for young patients, as it will fail too rapidly.
The hip resurfacing operation is an alternative to hip replacement
and has 3 crucial advantages.
Advantage #1: Lasts Longer
The first is that no plastic (polyethylene) is used, like in
conventional hip replacement. Since an anatomical sized 'metal on
metal' bearing is used, it lasts for a very long time, many times
more than that of conventional hip replacement. Hip resurfacing
is extremely popular in Europe, Australia and some parts of Asia.
The anatomy and bio-mechanics after resurfacing mimic a normal hip
very closely.
Advantage #2: Active Lifestyle
The second advantage is that, post operatively, patients are
encouraged to be very active and must play some sport, do swimming
etc. No activity is restricted, including sitting on the floor,
crossing legs etc. In short, it behaves like a normal hip, enabling
patients to return to their normal lifestyle. In contrast, after
a hip replacement, one has to behave like an elderly person (for
whom this has been designed) to be safe from dislocation and to
prolong the life of the prosthesis.
There are also other advantages in
Resurfacing like preservation of bone stock -- as no bone is removed
in this operation -- unlike hip replacement where the head and neck
of the thighbone is completely removed. Further it has been proven
that bone stock actually increases after hip resurfacing, due to
the restoration of normal biomechanics in the hip and proximal femur.
Advantage #3: Bone Quality Improves
The 3rd advantage is that the polyethylene 'wear particles'
does not damage the surrounding bone, like in conventional hip replacement,
and the quality of bone actually improves with time after hip resurfacing.
This makes a revision solution (if at all needed) very straight
forward surgery, unlike the very complicated revision scenario in
a conventional Total Hip Replacement.
Is hip resurfacing a better
option for all patients - including elderly, less active individuals?
Why or why not?
3 factors play
a role in opting for hip resurfacing over a conventional hip replacement.
The factors are age, quality of bone stock and activity level.
The interplay of these 3 factors has to be judged judiciously by
the surgeon. Therefore there are no rigid cut -off values for any
one criterion.
How long have you (and your Indian colleagues) been performing
resurfacing surgeries compared to the US?
I have been performing hip resurfacing since May of 2000 in
Chennai, India at the ARCH (Asian Regional Center for Hip Resurfacing)
facility. Before that, I was in Birmingham, U.K. and have been involved
in this procedure since 1995. The procedure has been available in
the U.S for the general public for about 7-8 months, since the FDA
approved the BHR prosthesis.
Editor's Note: The Birmingham
Hip Resurfacing System is a product from Smith and Nephew, a
company based out of London, England that is traded as an American
Depository Receipt on the New York Stock Exchange, under the symbol
SNN.
What is the prognosis for patients
post-op in both procedures?
The patient is usually made to walk
full weight bearing the day after the hip resurfacing operation
and is usually discharged from the hospital at about 5- 6 days from
the operation. They can resume any work at 3 weeks from operation
and sport is started 6 weeks from operation.
After a hip replacement, one has to
behave like an elderly person to be safe from dislocation and to
prolong the life of the prosthesis.
Which company do you use for the
parts? I found a site listing over half a dozen medical parts manufacturers
who have or are seeking approval for a hip resurfacing product.
I use the Smith & Nephew BHR for
most patients. I also use the Depuy ASR for some patients.
Editor's Note: DePuy is owned by
Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ).
Gary was only 50! Mary Lou
Retton is 39! Floyd Landis is 31! Why are so many younger
people needing hip surgery?
There is no straight answer to this.
Hip arthritis is pre-destined in 99% of patients except in those
developing it after trauma. However one can bring the onset of hip
arthritis forward by "abusing" the hip. However it is very controversial
as to what constitutes abuse of the hip.
Is there any proactive health choice
that someone can make earlier in life and perhaps avoid the need
for surgery until they are advanced in age?
The only thing
would be a healthy life style with regard to diet, exercise and
balance. However, it is again controversial as to what 'healthy'
and balance implies in these issues. There are lots of dietary supplements,
which claim to prevent or slow down the arthritis of the hip. However,
there is no scientific data backing this claims.
What is your experience with regard to US doctors embracing or
shunning the resurfacing procedure?
US doctors have been shunning the procedure for a decade. However,
as this procedure has now gained global acceptance, they are embracing
it with some reservations. The FDA approval for the BHR certainly
helped in gaining acceptance for this procedure with the American
orthopedic fraternity.
Don't miss
our upcoming online worldwide chat with Dr. Bose, on July 18th,
2007 at 7:30 a.m. PT. This is your chance to ask your questions
LIVE, one-on-one and anonymously online. Go to the Calendar
section of NataliePace.com for details!
Thank you, Dr. Bose.
For more information on Hip Resurfacing,
you can visit the following websites.
http://www.hipresurfacing.com/
http://www.activejoints.com/resurfacing.html
To Contact
Dr.
Vijay Bose, go to his website at:
http://www.hipresurfacingindia.com/
|
|
Its Hip to Get a New Hip!
And Gary Kobat should
know. 6 weeks post surgery, and he's already back on the bike --
painfree. A reprint of our June 13th online chat with
Gary.
 |
| Gary
at-work pacing World Champion Sara Chojnacki to a podium finish
in Austin, Texas. |
By way of introduction, Gary
Kobat is a well-known, well-regarded life and fitness coach with
about 2% body fat. He's a lean, beautiful physical specimen, and
the diagnosis that his hip had degenerated was probably one of the
biggest challenges I've ever watched him face.
Gary -- We, as a society are much more
active than our parents. As a result, more and more hip replacements
will be needed, and at much younger ages than the traditional 60-75
years old. I'm 50. Mary Lou Retton is 39.
Gary, can you describe the difference
between the procedure that you had done in India and the procedures
that other surgeons in the US were recommending? Why didn't you
get the procedure done in the US?
The Federal Drug Administration approved
hip resurfacing about 12 months ago in the USA. This has been done
overseas for 10 years. As a result, the USA doctors had only a few
experiences or cases. I didn't want to go to a doc who had done
only 10-15 cases. I went to a doc who had done over 1000. The longer
the USA docs do that procedure - hip resurfacing - the better they
will get at it.
Gary, was there any difference in
cost as well? I mean, traveling to India cannot be cheap. And you
stayed at a very nice resort during your R&R...
The cost in LA was $55,000. London:
$28,000. Belgium: $19,000 and India: $15,000. My insurance still
had out of pocket of approximately $19,000. Whereas the entire trip
to India, including spa recovery, was $15,000.
Also, can you give us an idea on
the difference between hip resurfacing, which was just approved
here in the US and the more traditional hip replacement that was
the norm? We know you are not a doctor, and are sharing your experiences
as an informed patient.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, the California
governor, has had a hip replacement, as did Ronald Reagan and Barry
Manilow. It's an awesome procedure that works for folks who are
kind of active. BUT, if one is 55 or under and VERY active, hip
resurfacing is best. It works with metal on metal, so it does not
wear down and should not dislocate with major activity.
How active can you be after the
surgery?
A hip replacement? I could not find
one world-class doctor in the U.S. who approved running again. They
told me to give it up. So I went overseas where they rebuild the
hip to take on running again. With the hip resurfacing procedure,
one can ease back into running, etc.
Being a health coach to the stars,
what do you recommend a person start out with -- the tread mill?
Jogging in the pool?
I recommend to start in the pool. Less
impact. Rebuild those muscles. Ease back in. I'm 7 weeks post, and
am just now running two minutes and walking two minutes on the treadmill
and still do pool work. The doctors will all tell you not to run.
If you have a bad hip, the pool is best. You can replace junk miles
that you run with pool work or indoor cycling to build cardio and
muscles. Spinning was my savior because it was nonimpact, lubed
the hip as I rode, and I could clear my mind with O2 and endorphins,
as my hip deteriorated and couldn't do the treadmill any more.
How do you know if you qualify for
the hip resurfacing procedure?
If you have a bad hip, get an E-ray
to tell you how bad, from a hip doctor. Most U.S. doctors will tell
you to get a THR - total hip replacement - only because they don't
do the hip resurfacing. So, you might look for a second opinion
abroad, if you are young and active.
My mother has a bad hip. She does
not even want to think about Total Hip Replacement. We are in Canada.
She had a very successful knee replacement done by a doctor in Toronto,
but that is all he does.
My relatives live in Prince Edward
Island. I have met a ton of hippies - hip resurfacing patients --
from Canada. They are so happy that they did it. How old is Mom?
She might be better for the THR, total hip replacement. Here's my
learning. I have met soooo many people who are holding out, living
with pain and NOT doing the procedure. I feel sorry for them. They
need a little nudge. They will feel so much better after the surgery.
No pain. Full movement. Yes, it's invasive, but weeks later, viola!
Awesome-ness.
Gary, please feel free to share
your doctor's name and how to contact him. Also, perhaps you can
give some information on how to best research the option that is
right?
You can Google
"hip resurfacing," or go to Surfacehippy.com
and you'll see all the happy campers who were also holding out,
but talk about the fact that they finally did it. I went to Apollo
Specialty Hospital in Chennai, India to Dr.
Vijay Bose. You can Google it all and start the research.
Use my name, Gary Kobat, to inquire to Dr. Bose.
I know my mother should go
ahead with the procedure here in Canada. They have excellent doctors
and are covered by the government health plan. It will only cost
my mother her private room charge of $700 Canadian dollars.
Remember: I could have used insurance
type procedures, but I paid cash in India, charge card actually,
and just paid it off -- $15,000. A lot of patients from Canada use
the government health plan in Canada. Check out the website. There
are doctors in Toronto that also do hip resurfacing. I started by
emailing my X-ray to Dr. Bose. He said I was a candidate. Mom can
do the same thing to the Toronto doctors. And awesome that is only
$700!
I have met sooo many people who put
it off and are miserable. They get numb. Can't see the new wrinkles
in their face because of the pain. But once the procedure is done,
they are smiling away. After, of course, a few weeks of rehab. Ask
NP. She sees me smiling all the time now!
Note from Natalie: Gary, it is truly
amazing to see the difference. I expected (and dreaded) a much longer
R&R period for you. It is inspiring to see that you came through
the procedure like a breeze! You look great, and the only difference
that I can see is that you are smiling all of the time.
Is there any downside to an older
person doing the resurfacing rather than the THR? Doesn't it make
sense that if it is better for an active person, it would be better
for a person who is less active, but still wants to do things? Again,
we know you are not a doctor. Just want to plumb your research.
As for THR or resurfacing - both work.
The doc usually recommends from the X-ray and activity level. I'm
a resurfacing advocate. I love and advocate hiking, cycling, pool,
running, etc. But the THR is awesome for walking, dog walking, etc.
We all want to be healthy and fit,
but sometimes our head gets in the way! Oh, I must do this first
- job, book, work, etc. We have to start with it in your head that
nothing is going to stop you from getting where you want to be.
What tips on this do you have?
The three pillars to change that your
mom/we need to do:
1) change our thinking
2) our eating, and
3) our moving
to get the best possible results for ourselves. The mind drives
the body. Think it and so it is. Visualize it first and it will
be created. So, yes, it starts in the mind, and all the painful
hipsters out there, pre-surgery, need to shift to more positive
thinking about this. It's the beginning of the rest of their lives.
Kind of a rebirthing of the next phase of their life. Or, stay stuck
in pain. I couldn't stay stuck any longer. It's called hitting or
reaching threshold.
Do you have any health tips?
Start your day with a protein shake.
Eat carbs mid-morning. Eat a bigger lunch. A small mid-day snack.
Lite dinner. Nothing after 8:30 p.m. Five smaller meals that you
can hold with five fingers on your hand. Use your hand as an eating
tool. Nothing portion-wise bigger than the palm of your hand. Five
fingers. Five meals.
Also, get moving. Walk every day if
nothing else. Use a treadmill. Use the incline function 1-12% upping
1% every minute and then back down at approx. 3.5-4.0 mph.
Do you allow wine?
First: wine is like eating a bowl full
of sugar. Sugar speeds the aging. We can get relaxed or antioxidants
in a healthier way. So, I always ask one why they drink wine? What's
the goal? Moderation if they have to. But in all realities, alcohol
is a product of decay. Burns the liver and brain cells, etc. Most
people do not want to hear that, but it's true. So, I always ask
why they want to, and then recreate new ways of achieving the same
goal while lessening the wine.
Glad you asked? Ha! But wine occasionally,
not nightly in large quantities? Like I said, "Why?" There
are healthier ways to get where you want to go.
My husband loves his glass of wine
at the evening meal. He says it is good for the heart. Maybe he
just wants to get relaxed.
I'm actually headed to Jim Carry's
now. A Canadian. He was kind enough to allow us to have the last
half hour out of his training window. So I have to go. But yes,
it's good for the heart, but real bad for the liver and sugar and
etc. So what he wants for the heart we get through walking each
day, and an antioxidant I recommend, and he'll be relaxed if he
cranks up his workouts. Have a great day! Hope some of this helped.
Thank you for allowing me to hang. Logging out now.
Thanks Gary. For all of you pre-hipsters
who are still stooped over and grimacing in pain, Gary is a role
model of how in less than six weeks, you can be fully functioning,
on the road to full recovery and leading an active lifestyle, and
best of all - without the pain.
DISCLAIMER: This chat was with a
hip resurfacing patient, not a doctor. Nothing contained herein
is intended to diagnose or treat any medical condition, or in any
way act, speak or operate like a medical professional. There are
listings of surgeons worldwide who specialize in hip resurfacing
and Total Hip Replacement procedures on many of the websites.
For more
information on hip replacements and hip resurfacing, read the article
in this month's ezine, entitled, "Get
Hip! Like Tour de France winner Floyd Landis, and Still Compete,"
a Q&A with Dr. Vijay Bose.
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Checking
up on Cramer:
Wonder how his picks
are performing?
Recently,
I received an email from one of my subscribers, asking, Dear Natalie:
"What do you think of the Motley Fool newsletter and
stock investing advice from pundits like Jim Cramer?"
Well. Uh. Entertaining?
In order to best answer that question,
I randomly listened in on Mad Money on January 17, 2007,
when Jim Cramer was doing a special on technology. His recurring
message was, "Bail on technology during the January to August
doldrums, but not on Cisco, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard and
Google." I immediately disagreed that we were going to have
a doldrums January to August. By my read of:
1. the economy,
2. historical trends in the markets,
3. the amount of cash in the corporations, particularly the Silicon
Valley based corporations,
4. strong earnings, and
5. real estate rolling over
(making stocks look more attractive)
I predicted,
"Whereas three out of four years, January is the top-performing
month, and it's a good time to consider selling out and taking some
of your profits, this January may be the beginning of a great pre-election
year rally, just as we saw in 2003, 1999, 1995 and 1991!" (Check
out the archived article "Buy
High; Sell Higher?
Why 2007 is Poised to be a Banner Year," from the February
2007 ezine.) Sure enough, over the next six months, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average scored record highs, and the NASDAQ and S&P500
rose to six-year highs as well.
Jim Cramer went on to recommend a number
of buys and sells during the show, and especially in the lightning
round. Would you like to know how those companies performed? Out
of 18 stocks, 11 lost money (in an up market!). The biggest losers
included his #1 Growth Stock -- the New York Stock Exchange Euronet
(NYX) -- which dropped -30%, and Altria (MO), his #1 Value Stock,
which lost -22% of its value.
The average
loss to date on the companies Cramer recommended on January 17,
2007 was -7%, as of June 22, 2007, and that was during a period
of 6-7% gains in the general marketplace! In other words, you would
be doing MUCH better to just invest for the long term in an Exchange
Traded Fund or an Index Fund than you would be doing right now if
you had invested in Cramer's Picks on that day. If you'd like tips
on Fool-Proof Ways to Get Rich and Stay Rich by investing in ETFs
for the long term, read the article in this month's ezine, "(Don't
Be) Famous and Bankrupt."
By comparison,
of the 44 companies that I listed on my mid-month update in June
2007, 33 are performing well and only 11 are in negative territory.
According to TipsTraders.com
criteria and tracking, my annualized gains are still 30%, meaning
that you should be earning on average 30% every year, if
you are a subscriber
and following the companies that I report on in the Hot News on
Cool Stocks List. That kind of performance compounds into a cumulative
150% return over the past five years and millions much faster than
even the rocket ship real estate has been over the same time period!
And here is where some stock newsletters
can bedazzle you a little bit. I recently saw this ad for the Motley
Fool Stock Advisor newsletter. "For the four-plus years since
Stock Advisor was launched, Tom and David Gardner's recommendations
have returned an average of 69% (compared with 32% for equal amounts
in the S&P 500)." 69% sounds AMAZING!! But 69% over four
years is equal to only 17.25% annualized. My 30% gains every
year are 120% over four years, or 240% over eight
years. If it doesn't say the word "annualized" then
you have to divide the number by the number of years in order to
see what the returns really are, and that number will be far less
impressive than it seems, because the only reason people use the
cumulative returns, instead of annualized, is as a marketing trick.
So, just to
make sure that I wasn't catching Jim Cramer on a bad day, I checked
out TipsTraders.com
and The Hulbert
Financial Digest - two
of the independent ranking services that follow the picks of pundits.
Of the Top Tipsters in 2006, neither Jim Cramer nor Motley Fool
were mentioned. (Yes, I'm listed.) Some of Motley Fools newsletters
are followed by Hulbert, but none have been around long enough to
be the top performers in any category, as his service publishes
results beginning over a 5-year period. Having said that, Motley
Fool's "Hidden Gems" newsletter is at the top of Hulbert's
list for one-year returns between May 2006 and May 2007, at 44.8%
gains on the year, which is about 28% above the general marketplace.
Impressive, but short-term. You really want to see those results
over a period of term before you jump in.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
The challenge with a lot of the "mass
media" pundits is that the format of their service works against
their ability to pick great stocks. No one can pick 20 stocks a
day at random. It's really impossible to do the amount of due diligence
necessary to make calls like that. Because of the popularity of
the show, however, even if Jim is against the practice, his producers
would want to keep the Lightning Round in. The format of both Motley
Fool and TheStreet.com is to post new content every day, so you
should know that the amount of research necessary to write an intelligent
article with updated news and a deep understanding of all of the
risks and performance potential on ONE COMPANY is being compromised.
When ANY PUNDIT is long on opinions and short on recent news and
data, you're entering into very risky territory. And the Mad
Money Lightning Round is a lot of whooping and hollering and
Stooge-like antics, with very little meat.
Daily content is really contrary to
rich, investigative reporting. That is why I have made the choice
to publish my featured companies MONTHLY and only update the Hot
News list every two weeks, which is a standard timeframe for many
stock newsletters that are outperforming the marketplace. I write
my feature articles and news updates personally, as do my favorite
stock pundits, like Paul Woods, Kelley Wright and David Fried, all
of whom we feature in the NataliePace.com ezine.
Kelley Wright
and David Fried are listed in Hulbert's Financial Digest
this month with impressive performance over long periods of time.
The Investment Quality Trends stock newsletter is #1 in risk-adjusted
returns for the past 20 years, at an annualized gain of 12.8%,
compared to the Wilshire 5000 performance of 11.1%. David Fried's
Buyback Letter is #5 in performance for the last 10 years, at 15.6%
gains annually, compared to the general marketplace return of 8.3%
yearly over the same 10-year period. (Paul Woods is not tracked
by Hulbert.) You can find these great stock pickers (each of whom
also manages money) by going to their company websites - IQTrends.com,
BuyBackLetter.com
and OdysseyAdvisors.com,
respectively. Paying a subscription for a top-performing stock newsletter
is far more valuable than listening to free advice that loses money!
The educational
content of Mad Money, when Cramer is not focusing on a particular
stock, has some value to it, though I don't agree with all that
Jim Cramer touts, especially when he starts telling companies, like
Citigroup, how to run their business better. I read a few general
educational articles on Motley Fool and I thought they were valuable
as well. I also really enjoy reading the macro commentary of outstanding
analysts, like Tobias Levkovich of Smith Barney, but the minute
the Portfolio
Strategist, Smith Barney's weekly newsletter,
starts touting stocks to buy and sell, I stop reading. For more
tips on investing
mistakes to avoid, be sure to read my article in the
Investor Edu section at NataliePace.com.
Remember the value of great reporting
is hard to beat. 48% -- 25 out of 52 companies Ñ of the companies
I featured between 2002 and 2005 DOUBLED, using my consumer-based,
investigative reporting criteria, combined with the fundamental
analysis presented in the Stock Report Cards. Additionally,
I called the 2003 pre-election year rally in January -- a year when
NASDAQ ran up over 50%.

This year is looking great so far as
well, although I'd recommend that you avoid traditional Blue Chips
and weight (and diversify) toward mid and small cap value stocks.
(For more information on why, check out the articles listed below.)
Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average might outperform in the
short term, simply because inexperienced investors will say, "put
me in," without knowing where the money is going, the fundamentals
of many of the legacy corporations listed in the Dow 30 are of concern.
Brokers have many reasons, including commissions, for putting new
investors into the Dow. Few of those reasons are because the Dow
is really poised to outperform over time.

In short, sometimes the best choice
you make is to turn off the television and delete the free newsletter
trial. Isn't it great when spending less time and money pay off!
OTHER
ARTICLES OF INTEREST:
39
of the S&P 500 companies that are most deeply in the red on
pension plans. Vol. 3, iss. 3. (March 2006)
Faded
Blue Chips. Vol. 3, iss. 8. (August 2006)
Wow!
Dow! Or NASDAQ Now? A Contrast in Cash and Debt. By Natalie
Pace. Including a Nasdaq vs. Dow Stock Report Card. Vol. 3, iss.
11 (November 2006)
|
|
Investing Over the
Really, Really, Really Long Term.
by
Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC
How
has the U.S. stock market fared since 1825?
We
recently received the "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
2007 Yearbook" from Morningstar/Ibbotson Associates. Okay,
our taste in reading material can be a bit dry. However, for professional
investment advisors, this is the bible of historic returns in the
stock and bond markets. Returns are shown by market sectors going
back decades, and this provides the most reliable measure of which
segments of the stock and bond markets have historically offered
the most attractive combination of risk and returns. In addition,
there's usually something new and this issue was no exception.
Looking WAY Back
Included in the recent edition were returns from 1825, which
is about 100 years earlier than the previous starting point for
stock market returns. The returns were calculated by taking closing
monthly prices from newspapers and adding paid dividends to the
change in prices. This series is large company stocks, although
a large company in 1825 was a far different creature than a large
company in 2007. Earlier returns should be taken with a few grains
of salt as the data was somewhat spotty and probably has gaps until
about 1926, when record keeping became more reliable. However, this
is still a pretty good benchmark for actual returns in spite of
the caveats.

Compounding
Unexciting Returns
Since 1925, the compound return on large company stocks in the
U.S. has been 8.77% and it should be noted that, with the exception
of the last few decades, dividends made up a major chunk of those
returns. For an investor from my generation that's seen double digit
returns since getting in this business, an 8.77% return isn't exactly
a toe curler. However, the magical thing about compounding is that,
if you keep at it long enough and don't jump in and out of the market,
it's hard not make a jaw dropping amount of money. On average, every
dollar invested in stocks in 1825 grew to $4,057,783.08 in 2006.
No, I'm not kidding, as the above graph shows.
Breaking
it Down
The above chart is on a logarithmic scale, which shows accelerations
or slowdowns in rates of return.
From this, we've broken historic returns into the following segments:
From 1825 through 1841, the average annual return was 1.22%
From 1842 through 1941, the average annual return was 7.75%
From 1942 through 2006, the average annual return was 12.34%
From 1842 through 2006, the average annual return was 9.53%
For whatever
reason, between 1825 and 1842, the stock market was a tough place
to make money. Stocks began to earn their keep in 1842 and, 100
years later, the U.S. was in the middle of a war that would cement
its position as an economic and military superpower. Double digit
returns in stocks have been the norm ever since.
What's interesting
is this goes against the rationale for investing in emerging markets.
What passes for wisdom in some parts of the investment industry
is the idea that investors will earn higher returns in emerging
economies than they will in countries with more mature economies.
Emerging is usually defined as a country that's poor with low economic
output, but things are improving. America probably fit that profile
in the early years, but stock market returns stayed in single digits
until our economy got a lot bigger.
The
Election Cycle
After the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve was given more
tools to influence the U.S. economy with the goal of preventing
another depression. Although the Fed is supposed to be independent,
the Chairman is a political appointee, appointed by the President,
with a term of 7 years. During my lifetime (60 years) the average
Fed chairman has been appointed for multiple terms. In an amazing
coincidence, economic growth starts getting better before elections
and slows down afterward.
Every stock
investor that's been at this for a while knows the result. It's
easier to make money before elections than afterward, and the chances
of losing money in the stock market seem to increase dramatically
once a President starts a new term. To test this, I threw out the
first 17 crappy years in stocks and picked 1842 as a starting point.
This was almost 100 years before the creation of the Federal Reserve,
was there still an election cycle in the stock market?
Returns in each
year of the 4 year election cycle were averaged. The data wasn't
sliced and diced to separate Democrat or Republican victories or
periods when the incumbent or the new guy was elected, making it
unnecessary for an investor to try to figure out who will win the
next election. All you need to know is when the next election is
being held.
For 164 years
and 40 Presidential elections, the results are dramatic. Stocks
average double digit returns in the years before elections, and
single digit returns afterward. The chances of losing money go from
about one year in five before elections to about one year in three
afterward.

Not shown here
is the size effect, which is significant in data going back to 1926.
In a nutshell, smaller companies produce significantly higher returns
than large ones. Keep in mind that what you're looking at here is
the LEAST attractive part of the U.S. stock market over time. Even
so, returns in the years before elections (such as 2007) produce
average total returns of almost 16% and election years produce average
total returns of almost 12%. The year after elections is when brakes
are typically applied to the economy. In those years, returns are
the lowest in the cycle, under 7% on average, while the chances
of losing money rise to about three years in eight.
All
Things Considered
In evaluating an investment in bonds or real estate, it's useful
to know the long term return on stocks for comparison purposes.
Returns in the stock market are clearly a function of the time period
measured. However, since 1842, total annualized returns in equities
have been about 9.5%. It's also clear that market timing is a bad
idea as anytime an investor is out of stocks, the chances of making
money are greater than the chances of losing money. However, allocating
a greater portion of your investments to stocks before elections
and cutting back afterwards is a strategy that's pretty hard to
argue with.
Paul
Woods is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income
management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments,
and non-profit institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright
© 2007 by Odyssey Advisors LLC
|
|
(Dont
Be) Famous and Bankrupt:
by
Natalie Pace.
Learn
the Fool-Proof Get Rich and STAY RICH Plan.
 |
Kim
Basinger declared bankruptcy after buying the town of
Braselton, Georgia |
Marion Jones,
the superstar of the Sydney Olympics with a record five medals,
has a current liquid asset value of $2,000, according to the Los
Angeles Times. Where did the money go? According to Ms. Jones,
"Bills, attorney bills, and a lot of different things to maintain
the lifestyle." Mike Tyson squandered over $300 million and
filed for bankruptcy in August of 2003 due to lavish spending and
bad advice, according to his team. Even Donald Trump has been forced
into bankruptcy on marquise properties, like the Plaza Hotel (on
Nov. 2, 1992).
While most people
are punch drunk on getting rich, the real trick is getting rich
and STAYING rich, the smart way. The Donald might be back bigger
than ever, but more than one of his businesses have cycled between
periods of popularity and bankruptcy protection. As athletes, Ms.
Jones and Mr. Tyson have already enjoyed their top-earning athletic
years, and will have a more difficult time making millions again.
The good news
is that the solutions for getting rich and staying rich are the
same. Most people LOSE their millions through lavish spending and
bad financial advice and most people NEVER MAKE THEIR millions through
over-spending and financial ignorance. (You'll notice the big difference
between the modest lifestyle of Warren Buffett - a perennial billionaire
on the Forbes list -- and the lavish lifestyle of Donald
Trump.) Bear with me here while I illustrate just how easy it is
for a KID making $13,000 a year to become a millionaire, with good
financial advice and moderated spending.
The below chart
is calculated by TD AMERITRADE, based upon opening a stock account
with just $2,000 and contributing only $1,300 per year (which would
be 10% of $13,000 net income per year).

As you can see,
an 18-year-old who tithes only 10% of her net income to her "Living
the Rich Life Freedom Plan," will have over $4 million dollars
in 50 years, at age 68 - and that is if she never gets a raise or
increases her contributions! What about taxes, you ask? If the 18-year
old sets up a qualified tax-free retirement account, then the capital
gains and dividends are NOT taxed (until the portfolio is used as
income).
Look how much
faster a young professional, contributing $4,000 annually Ñ10% of
a $40,000 net income -- to a qualified Individual Retirement Account
(tax-free) can become a multi-millionaire.

So,
the first rules of thumb for getting rich and STAYING RICH are to:
- Tithe
10% of your net income to your Tax-Free Financial Freedom Plan
- BEFORE YOU PAY BILLS OR SPEND LAVISHLY ON CARS, VACATIONS AND
OTHER STATUS SYMBOLS.
When you're
tithing 10% a year, you're diversifying your investing money across
a range of time, which is a great, time-proven strategy. This
is like "dollar cost averaging" across time periods
-- a fantastic diversification model. You don't want to try and
"market time," but conversely, you don't want to be
making a HUGE investment of your entire nest when the market is
at its highs. (It is ill-advised to take a huge lump sum out of
another asset class and just dump it into stocks without considering
whether the markets are at a high or not - regardless of how many
charts your stock broker shows you.)
- Contribute
the maximum amount possible into a tax-free retirement account
EVERY YEAR.
Now, the above
portfolios are based upon an aggressive "wealth-accumulation"
strategy, which is heavy in the stock market and lighter in bonds,
money markets and Treasury bills. As you get older, this kind
of strategy is not appropriate because it is TOO risky. THIS IS
VERY IMPORTANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO!! Many people are getting their
pension plans bought out and handed cash, and too many of those
have handed over the reins of their retirement plan to an over-aggressive
broker who has had too much at risk given their age and retirement
goals. Unfortunately, in a down market, that could mean that the
person is unable to stop working, or worse might be in a position
to lose their home.
For instance,
it's okay for a 20-year-old to be all in on the stock market in
2000-2002 because during market down cycles, s/he still has another
decade or two to make up for any losses. Since, historically, the
stock markets return on average between 10-12% EVERY YEAR - even
with the down cycles -- odds are high that, over time, equities
perform better than any other asset, including real estate, gold,
bonds, Treasury bills and inflation.

If you are 70
and you hit a down cycle, like the one we experienced in 2000-2002,
and you have too much invested in stocks, you could be forced to
postpone retirement. The NASDAQ lost more than 60% of its value
between 2000 and 2002, so anyone seeking retirement or needing to
withdraw more funds than expected due to health or another trauma
would be in trouble, if they had too much invested in NASDAQ.

GET
RICH AND STAY RICH TIP #3: Keep a % equal to your age SAFE
At age 20, you can have up to 80% of your financial freedom
plan invested in the stock market to maximize gains. If you take
a long view, then you don't have to worry about any annual downturns
or recessions. The good years more than make up the difference!
20% should be safe and liquid - in bonds, Treasury bills and money
markets.

77.27% Stocks
7.73% Bonds
15% Cash & Equivalents
By the age of
80, only 20% of your plan should be invested in stocks. You don't
have additional time to wait for the up-cycles, and need safe, secure,
steady yielding investments
.
These general
guidelines can go up or down slightly based upon your risk tolerance
and financial expertise, but do not be seduced into making a lavish
exception at the urging of a broker or certified financial planner
- especially one whose background and experience hasn't been screened
thoroughly. Remember always that brokers are salespersons who are
paid on commission.
Both of these
charts have been generated online through the discount brokerages
TD
AMERITRADE and SCHWAB.
You can start planning out your own RICH LIFE future in just five
minutes WITHOUT even having to give your name or email address at
these websites, so there is no excuse to delay! (See the end of
the article for instructions on how to try out your own plan.)
GET
RICH AND STAY RICH PLAN TIP #4: Buy bonds, not bond funds,
for a more secure, yielding investment that should payback the principle
at maturity.
You'll notice one VERY IMPORTANT, but often overlooked, detail in
the Schwab and TD AMERITRADE charts - the name "bond funds."
Here's the trick. You should NOT be invested 75% in bond funds,
if you are retired. Why? Because bond funds are really stocks. They
are traded on the stock market. In a bond fund, you are not buying
a bond that comes to maturity and guarantees your principle. Additionally,
you are paying higher fees on the bond fund than you will on bonds.
The bond fund is a way to diversify, but it is not as secure an
asset as the bond (which will pay yield and payback principle at
maturity, provided the corporation or government issuing the bond
doesn't go bankrupt). Think of bond funds as mutual funds (which
are stocks) that invest in the bonds (instead of equity) of corporations
(and governments).
As 30-year bond
veteran Meri
Anne Beck-Woods says, "Unlike a bond, a bond fund
never matures and the expense ratio is relatively high. It
is a lot easier to buy individual bonds and bond ETFs than ever
before. If you are retired, you may need more income
than a stock dividend can provide. Now 6% is available for
10-year agency bonds with some call protection, and 6% treasury
bonds are available at a premium, which can be amortized over the
life of the bond and taken as a tax write-off."
GET
RICH AND STAY RICH PLAN TIP #5: Fill up the tank regularly, with
biannual maintenance checks.
Selecting the plan that is right for you is like buying a car.
You have to do some research to pick the most compatible ride, and
then you simply gas up regularly and do a maintenance check annually
or biannually, and you're good to go! As you can see from these
easy-to-create charts, the brokerages have made it very easy for
you to select a plan in five minutes that is almost right for you.
Tweak it with the above five tips with about five minutes investment
of your time. Then, it is just a matter of tithing 10% of your net
income EVERY MONTH into your freedom plan, and readjusting the plan
twice a year to account for your age, to take any profits or to
make any other adjustments that look appropriate. (For instance,
in 2000, when your NASDAQ equity had rocketed up over 200%, there's
nothing wrong with taking those profits and rediversifying the money
into an undervalued equity, like bonds, that might be poised to
start performing.)
Gas up your
portfolio monthly, with your 10% monthly tithe. Do maintenance checks
twice a year. Take your profits in January, the top performing month,
historically, of each year. Shop for the Back to School Stock Sales
in September, the lowest performing month, historically, of each
year. Rebalance your portfolio, based upon your age, and make sure
that you have the appropriate amount safe, and a good diversification
plan. (Don't have all of your stocks in just one company; don't
have your entire portfolio in the stock market.)
GET
RICH AND STAY RICH PLAN TIP #6: Bonds perform better as interest
rates drop. When interest rates rise, the market value of the bond
goes down, and can produce negative returns.
One last tip on bonds. Bonds are traded on the open market,
and the value of the bond does wax and wane based upon the current
interest rate climate. During 2002-2003, bonds were the top-performing
asset class. Interest rates and stocks were in the toilet, and anyone
holding a bond with a high-yield was in a position to sell it for
a good premium! (High-yield bonds can return even higher premiums
on the price paid.) A bond that goes to maturity is safe, but if
you're 80, and into the last years of your life, you may not live
to see the principle repaid. So, be aware that, in a market where
interest rates are rising, the value of bonds you hold that were
purchased at a lower interest rate will decrease. If there's not
a real need to sell the bond, you can just ignore the market value
of the bond and enjoy your yield.
GET
RICH AND STAY RICH PLAN TIP #7: Stocks on Steroids Portfolio
To really maximize returns, especially if you love investing
in stocks and are willing to educate yourself and become a sophisticated,
informed investor, consider having a percentage of your portfolio
designated as your STOCKS ON STEROIDS portfolio.
The percentage
of your STOCKS ON STEROIDS portfolio will vary, based upon your
experience and confidence in your own ability to pick great stocks
and buy low, sell high for profit. A beginning investor might actively
trade only 5% of their stock portfolio, whereas an experienced investor
might actively trade half of their stock portfolio, provided they
have the risk tolerance for it.
Consider how
rapidly adding a few percentage points to the gains adds up.
If you did that
same plan of $4,000 to start and $4,000 contributions into a tax-free
retirement plan and used my stock picks, which are earning 30% annualized
going into the 8th year, you'd be a millionaire in just 15 years
(account value of: $1,155,824).
GET
RICH AND STAY RICH PLAN TIP #8: Do your trading within your tax-free
IRA, and use your non-qualified account as your long-term retirement
plan.
Oddly, even though the qualified tax-free retirement plan feels
like the stodgy place you put money in regularly but don't bother
looking at, the tax-free IRA is the best place to do your trading
because the capital gains and dividends are not be taxed! In a larger
portfolio, say, $10 million, you will have tax considerations, but
capital gains taxes right now are lower than normal, at 15% for
long term capital gains and a capped rate for short term gains.
(Always check with your certified financial planner for tax considerations;
tax laws change frequently!)
A $10 million
dollar portfolio goes to half a BILLION in 15 years with my 30%
gains ($511,858,930), however, considering an average tax rate of
28%, that same $10 million invested in NataliePace.com featured
companies, which are earning 30% annualized gains, becomes $187,933,249
in 15 years. That is still a great return, but reduced significantly
because of the burden of the taxes.
Because capital
gains and dividends are not taxed in a qualified retirement account,
you can really maximize your trading gains by housing your trading
portfolio under that umbrella and avoiding those taxes. There are
cap limits, so you can't just transfer your millions into an IRA
and trade tax-free. Consult your certified financial planner for
creative, tax-sensitive planning. If you have the millions to invest,
they should have some great ideas for the best structure for you.
Which leads
to financial tip #9.
GET
RICH AND STAY RICH PLAN TIP #9: Set up a foundation.
Once you get into multi-millionaire status, it actually pays to
give back to your community. As you can see, if you have tax-free
status within your foundation, the money that you earn and the gains
that you make are going to increase significantly, simply by reducing
your tax liability. If you're smart about it, this foundation will
not only earn great gains, but also benefit the segment of society
that you most want to improve (for Mike Milken it was cancer research;
for Oprah it was education in Africa).
A foundation
is also a great way to forge political alliances (important for
anyone with money) and a free way to generate good press. The foundation
will increase your net worth exponentially faster, if you are investing
well and have a good executive director managing the funds! Establishing
your own foundation is a way of contributing to a society that benefits
everyone, whereas just buying a Rolls Royce for your favorite relatives
can be a short-lived thrill that you might even get taxed on at
the extraordinarily high Gift Tax Rate!
Wealth is not
just money. Wealth is enjoying a happy, fulfilling life, surrounded
by people you like in a beautiful, abundant world. So, just create
it, baby!
In conclusion,
we wish Ms. Jones well in her training and a return to success in
her career, but clearly the better choice is to make sure that you
STAY RICH once you get rich. If you know her, or any other athlete,
lottery winner, celebrity or business owner (including "the
Donald") who might fall into the lavish spending/bad financial
advice category, be sure to forward them this article. Once they
learn to put their money to work for them, they'll still enjoy all
that champagne, caviar and high life - without having to spend time
in bankruptcy court explaining where all of the money went when
the attorney bills and tax bills arrive.
To
create your own wealth plan chart, follow the below directions.
Go To NataliePace.com
Click on InvestorEdu
Click on Brokerages Online
Click on TDAMERITRADE
Click on the Flexible Planning Choices banner ad
Click on TRY AMERIVEST NOW (under the Self-Directed Amerivest column)
Go through 2 steps and plan your own Financial Freedom Plan!
Other
articles of Interest:
The
Secret of Investing:
Hitch Your Wagon to a Star. by Natalie Pace.
Buy
Your New Home
in Fall, and Save Thousands of Dollars. By Natalie Pace.
Thrive.
by Natalie Pace. Invest in the Rich Life, not Just Basic Needs.
Includes a Freedom Blueprint Vision Sheet.
The
Secret of Wealth. Double Your Fun. By Natalie Pace.
Disclaimer:
Natalie Pace is not a broker and does not operate or act as such.
She is an executive who reports on the financial markets. Always
consult a certified financial planner to determine the best account
based upon your needs. That's their job and expertise!
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|
Montenegro a
Diamond in the Rough.
by
Suanna Gurovich, managing partner, Montenegro Realty
Five
years ago, I wrote and article about Montenegro in International
Living Magazine called: "Montenegro: Jewel of the
Adriatic." Since that time many of the predictions that I made
have far exceeded my expectations. It is truly a very beautiful
country, with people who are welcoming and generous. But like any
new democracy, it certainly has it rough spots. I will give you
my bird's eye view as a local business person, trying to start my
business for developers.
 |
| The
beach you are looking at is called Becici. The government
is looking for a large developer here. The area is as
big as the city of Budva. |
 |
| This
is the ancient city of Svete Stefan, or Saint Stevan.
The villagers in the 1600-1900s lived in the walled
city as protection from the invading Turks. There
was a draw bridge, so they could go to their farms of
Olive Trees and vegetables. Each stone cottage now is
a hotel room. There are no cars in the walled city,
just walks with gorgeous flowering plants up to the ancient
Serbian church on the top of the hill. There is
a casino, restaurant, hotel and shops inside now. Princess
Diana and Charles were here for their honeymoon. A
group from Singapore has leased it for 30 years and will
have a 5 star hotel here. |
|
Not
Part of Serbia
The biggest problem Montenegro has now is to divest themselves
of Serbia in the eyes of the public. They are now an independent
country, but typical of Americans- we don't know that.
"Isn't
it a dangerous country?" I am asked that constantly by AmericansÉnot
by Europeans. It is perhaps America's worst problem in dealing with
other nations - our lack of knowledge of their current or past history.
Most Americans do not even know where Montenegro is. They will in
the future. They have shed the cloak of Serbia, and like a Phoenix
are rising from the ashes swiftly and with great expectations.
No
License
First and foremost, the real estate industry really doesn't exist.
There is no license for realtors, no trainers, and definitely no
information. I have been a broker for 17 years in the Bay Area and
in San Francisco. Starting a new real estate business in Montenegro
was like stepping into the 1920's of our industry. My loyal cab
driver Bruno, who picks me up in Dubrovnik when I come from America,
has properties to sell. His barber is also selling property. My
favorite restaurant in Podgorica is a center for exchanging new
listings. And of course, few are exposed to the light of day. There
is no law around the listing and selling of real estateÉexcept of
course commissions and taxes. The government wants their taxes.
Taxes
Buyers pay taxes on the purchase of property in Montenegro.
2% is charged at the close of sale. If you are a developer, there
are taxes for developing similar to what you would expect in America.
You have the same problems with permits, and local bureaucracies
that you have in America. My company offers a permit expeditor that
helps developers with getting their permits placed in a timely manner.
We have the same problems here in the States.
No
Information
Our real estate industry in America is the best in the world!
I am sure of that. I have looked at property all over Europe, and
it truly is difficult. In America we have a Multiple Listing System.
It is easy to get information about current and past transactions.
A good agent can tell you what properties were selling for by square
foot, by room and by area. There is information that can help any
investor make a wise decision before buying.
The
only way to get information in Montenegro is by asking someone what
their property sold for. We know they aren't going to tell the truth,
if they tell you anything at all. You can get information from the
government if you are a developer, and I found the economist who
works for the government to be very well educated and extremely
helpful. So much has to be done with just asking lots of questions
and getting information little by little. My hope is that eventually,
when the banking system is more sophisticated, they will help to
start a system of information flowing for the average investor.
The
other problem is title. There is no title company in Montenegro.
The past is riddled with bodies of developers who purchased land
and after building found there was an owner somewhere. We have an
attorney who will check all records and verify the land for the
investor.
Positive
Future
In spite of everything I have told you above, I have very high hopes
for this small country. Its geographic placement near Italy on the
Adriatic Sea, and its topography of gorgeous craggy mountains and
crystal blue sea, make it a no-brainer. You can literally drive
from the sea to the highest Mountains in the Balkans, through the
"Grand Canyon of Europe," within two hours!
The
largest investors in Montenegro today are the Brits, followed very
closely by the Irish. I was very surprised at that revelation. Russians
have built a huge hotel near Budva called Hotel Splendid and it
is gorgeous. Peter Mauk from Canada is building a yacht resort in
Tivat for over 2.1 billion Euros. It will be exclusive to the very
rich, and similar to the resort in Monte Carlo. In fact Montenegro
is being called the "New Monte Carlo". Rumors are that
a group from New York and Europe are building a huge resort in Ulcinj,
the most beautiful beach in Montenegro. Svete Stefan has been leased
for 30 years by a large resort company from Singapore and Best Western
has built a new hotel in the capital city of Podgorica.
The
European Union has financed new highways, bridges, tunnels, water
systems, sewer systems, and electrical systems. Montenegrins have
high hopes of joining the union within the next eight years. The
major highway that the EU built in Montenegro joins the Adriatic
Highway that begins in central Europe, and continues through Croatia,
Montenegro, Greece and Turkey. Cruise lines will be stopping in
Kotor this summer. Montenegro is 30 miles south of Croatia. Croatia
is the newest tourist attraction and is booming. My question is
why wouldn't Montenegro with the same beaches be booming also? The
properties in Montenegro are one third the price of the properties
in Croatia. The value is there.
The
pressure of doing the right thing for Montenegro is great for the
government. The EU is watching. There is still corruption. There
is still greed. But there does seem to be a light at the end of
the tunnel. My prediction is that this small country will develop
into a major tourist spot within the next ten years.
Hvala,
hope to hear from you soon!
Suanna Gurovich
Montenegro Realty
650-689-5144 San Francisco
650-689-5145 fax
381-67-648-846 Budva, Montenegro
Suanna did
her undergraduate work at the University of Arizona and Long Beach
State University. She became a stock broker with Merrill Lynch
and attended their investment college at Princeton, New Jersey.
She also did a semester at the Universite per Stragneri in Florence,
Italy. She has been an investment Broker in San Francisco
for 17 years.
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Peace = Prosperity.
by Natalie Pace.
Experts reveal
ways to reduce violence and promote prosperity - in our classrooms,
in our homes and around the globe.
Even though it is easy to see that
violence ruins cities and destroys lives, there is a myth out there
that people prosper from war. It is in fact quite the opposite.
Peace promotes prosperity. Education is an investment in economic
advancement. Unemployment correlates strongly with violence, so
one of the best things you can do to reduce violence in any community
is to create jobs. Building schools and hospitals is a better way
to make friends than to put a gun in their face.
There are many measurable strategies
that have been quantitatively proven to work in reducing violence
and promoting economic advancement, unity and better lives for everyone.
Please view the attached slide show, where experts such as Reverend
Michael Bernard Beckwith, Dr. Gary Becker (Nobel Laureate winning
economist), Dr. Tricia Jones and more, reveal the best strategies
to promote peace and prosperity -- both internationally and domestically
in our homes. Also, learn what Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
recently did to ensure that peaceful people in the Gaza Strip are
provided aid.

Other
Articles of Interest in the NataliePace.com article series on Peace
and Prosperity:
Peace
= Prosperity. Q&A with Nobel Laureate Dr. Gary Becker. By
Natalie Pace.
The
Economics of Disaster Management. By Dr.
Gary S. Becker.
Stars
Shine on Marianne Williamson's Peace Plan. by Natalie
Pace. NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 4, issue 3.
Steven Tyler, Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Smart, Deepak Chopra, Reverend
Michael Bernard Beck, Frances Fisher, Denise Brown and Marianne
Williamson entertain, inspire and educate Marianne's Peace Alliance
conference attendees to become citizen lobbyists on behalf of House
Bill number 808, calling for a U.S. Department of Peace!
Spiritual
Gurus Weigh in on The Department of Peace Bill. By Natalie
Pace. NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 4, issue 3.
China's
Evolution Toward Freedom. A candid interview with one of
the most respected CEOs in mainland China, Dr. Charles Zhang, Chairman
and CEO, Sohu.com. By Natalie Pace. NataliePace.com archived ezine,
Vol. 4, iss. 1.
Gap's
Inc(RED)ible Campaign to Empower Africa. By Natalie Pace.
Featuring (PRODUCT) RED.
|
|
Op-Ed: Biofuel:
by Sunita Narain
Good idea, Bad practice.
Now that the reality of climate change
has been accepted even by its strongest skeptics, there is a rush
to find answers. The latest buzz is to substitute the use of greenhouse
gas-emitting fossil fuels with biofuelsÑfuel processed from plants.
Unfortunately, the way we are going about implementing this "good"
idea could mean we are headed from the frying pan to the fire.
There are two kinds of biofuel: ethanol, processed from sugarcane
or corn, and biodiesel, made from biomass. Climate-savvy Europe
gave the first push to biofuel, mandating they should contribute
6 per cent of fuels used in vehicles by 2010 and 10 per cent by
2020. The bulk of biodiesel comes from domestically grown rapeseed.
But to meet its growing needs, it is looking at importing soybean-based
fuel from Brazil and Argentina, and palm oil from Indonesia and
Malaysia.
US president George Bush has this year
called on his country to produce 132 billion liters of biofuel by
2017, to cut dependence on foreign fuel. The US's favorite biofuel
is ethanol, which it produces from corn starch. Brazil, the world's
largest ethanol producer, mostly uses sugarcane. It is estimated
that ethanol plants will burn up to half of the US's domestic corn
supplies in the coming few years. In addition, its biofuel industry
is looking to make fuel out of soy and other crops to feed the automobile
industry's growing hunger.
Already, the repercussions of this switch are beginning to show.
Late last year, Mexico saw its tortilla wars, as people found the
price of their stapleÑcornÑhad doubled. The hike was a result of
the crop's new market as a source of vehicle fuel and the control
over the crop and its uses by corporate USA. In this case, one company,
Archer Daniels Midlands, has dominant interests in the corn and
wheat market and is the largest ethanol processor in the region.
In addition, it has a financial stake in a Mexican company that
makes tortillas and refines wheat. In other words, the company benefits
when corn price increases and consumers switch to wheat. Or when
the switch takes place from food to fuel, they benefit. Similarly,
Cargill, the agribusiness multinational, is now the big name in
the biofuel market. In this scenario, prices of other food commoditiesÑwheat,
soy, palm oilÑare rising as well, in turn, impacting the poorest
consumers globally. The projections are that food prices will increase
between 20-40 per cent in the next 10 years or so because of this
switchover.
The problem is compounded by the fact that this "switch"
will do little to avert climate change. It is clear that all the
biofuel in the world will be a blip on the total consumption of
fossil fuel. In the US, for instance, it is agreed that if the entire
corn crop is used for ethanol, it can only replace 12 per cent of
current gasolineÑpetrolÑused in the country. A recent paper in the
us journal Foreign Affairs estimates that filling a 95-litre
fuel tank with pure ethanol will require about 200 kg of corn, which
has enough calories to feed a person for a year.
If we factor in the fuel inputs that go into converting biomass
to energyÑfrom diesel to run tractors, natural gas to make fertilizers,
fuel to run refineriesÑbiofuel is not an energy-efficient option.
It is estimated that roughly 20 per cent of corn-made ethanol is
Ônew' energy. This does not account for the water it will take to
grow this new crop. There is also evidence that rainforests will
be cut to expand the cultivation of soy, sugarcane and palm oil,
which in turn will exacerbate climate change.
Don't get me wrong: I am in favor of biofuel. But the question we
need to ask is how to use it to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Currently, though we are only interested in maximizing corporate
profits; we believe rather naively that social objectives are being
met.
Firstly, let us be clear that biofuels cannot substitute fossil
fuels; but they can make a difference if we begin to limit the consumption
of the latter. If this is the case, governments should not provide
subsidies to grow crops for biofuel, as is being done in the US
and Europe, but spend to limit their fuel consumption by reducing
the sheer numbers of vehicles on their roads. If this is done, biofuels,
which are renewable and emit less greenhouse gases, will make a
difference. Otherwise, we are only fooling ourselves.
Secondly, the question is where will the biofuels be used? Let us
be clear that the opportunity for a massive biofuel revolution is
not in the rich world's cities, to run vehiclesÑbut in the grid-unconnected
world of Indian or African villages. It is here that there is a
scarcity of energyÑelectricity to power homes, fuel to cook, to
run generator sets to pump water and to run vehicles. It is also
here that the use of fossil fuels will grow because there is no
alternative.
Instead of bringing fossil fuel long distances to feed this market,
this part of the world can leapfrog to a new energy futureÑfrom
no fuel to the most advanced fuel. The biofuel can come from non-edible
tree cropsÑjatropha in India, for exampleÑgrown on wasteland,
which will also employ people.
This fuel market will demand a different business model. It cannot
be conducted on the basis of the so-called free market model, which
is based on economies of scale and, therefore, demands consolidation
and leads to uncompetitive practices. In today's model, a company
will grow the crops, extract the oil, transport it first to refineries
and then back to consumers.
The new generation biofuel business needs a model of distributed
growth in which we have millions of growers and millions of distributors
and millions of users. Remember, climate change is not a technological
fix but a political challenge. Biofuel is part of a new future.
This article
was reprinted by permission of Ms Sunita Narain. Ms. Narain is currently
the Director
of the Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi
and also the editor of the magazine Down
to Earth.
|
|
The
Number One Blue Chip Stock Newsletter for the Past 20 Years!
by Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends stock newsletter.
INVESTMENT
OUTLOOK
Mid-June 2007
There is tremendous
pressure in the advisory community to acquiesce to the "this
time it's different" paradigm. Even longtime market observers
that have been rock-solid disciplinarians are showing cracks in
their resolve. What this portends for the short-term, if anything,
remains to be seen. That being said, I can't shake the feeling that
this development is a negative indicator.
In the Mid-May
issue I reported that the Utilities sector, as defined by the Dow
Jones Utility Average, had breached its historic area of Overvalue
and historically this did not bode well for the future. I brought
this to your attention because the Utilities are a critical component
in the overall market rise as they have been one of the primary
leaders.
Whether my remarks
were fortuitous or not I leave to your good sensibilities to determine.
In any event, the sector did suffer a sharp decline of almost 9
ý% from the May 22 high of 537.12 to an intraday low of 485 on June
8. As I write the DJUA sits at 488, five points below its Overvalued
area of 493. Unless the index breaches the May high of 537.12 we
have to consider that a top in the Utilities is in place. If this
proves to be the case it will be interesting to see if the Utilities
continue to lead, to the downside.
A last note
about the Utilities; I referenced Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) in
the Mid-May issue as the only utility in our universe of Select
Blue Chips that was relatively close to Undervalue at 5% into its
Rising Trend. To illustrate the comments above we have provided
a chart on PNW in this issue as an illustration. A picture, in this
case, speaks louder than words.

Copyright ©
Value Trend Analysis.
Long-time subscribers
know that our approach to investing rests on the twin pillars of
quality and value. While the quality component is required to know
what to buy, it is the value component that is most critical
in that it tells us when to buy. Charles Henry Dow taught
us that value is determined in the end by the return to the investor.
The return to the investor then is established at the buy. This
is to say if you buy a stock right; the return will take care of
itself.
I remind subscribers
about this tidbit of wisdom because it is central to our goal of
building capital and income to meet our cash needs. Juxtapose that
to what I read recently in another publication I receive gratis
in the spirit of collegiality. The quote is as follows: "Ultimately,
it comes down to valuation. Interest rates are low relative to the
earnings yields of stocks (the earnings per share for the most
recent 12 months divided by market price per share. Earnings yield
is the inverse of the priceearnings ratio. Basically, it's the amount
of earnings you buy for every dollar worth of stock). That provides
plenty of incentive to borrow in the bond market and use the
proceeds to buy shares. We are seeing favorable valuation manifest
itself in the high levels of leveraged buyouts and in share
buybacks. Bank lending standards remain lax, except, belatedly,
in the subprime mortgage market. The good times can last
as long as interest rates remain low and earnings remain at current
overall levels."
I would change
the word "ultimately" to "always." Successful
investing is always about values. As for earnings yield, I would
classify that as a myth. In the absence of dividends, shares are
worthless. The value of an investor's holdings is determined by
the income he stands to receive from them. No income, no value.
Theoretically an investor can always sell his holdings to other
investors and realize capital gains (or losses). But capital gains
can be driven by earnings hype and are not guaranteed. When faced
with little or no dividends, market participants, particularly Wall
Street firms, can't live with a zero valuation of securities. This
results in substituting future dividends, the outcome of capital
accumulation and re-investment, for present ones. Behold your myth.
All things being equal, we'll leave the myths to others and take
our dividends in cash.
- Kelley Wright/
kelley@iqtrends.com
THE
TIMELY TEN
Every
stock in the Undervalued and Rising Trend categories is considered
part of our model portfolio for performance tracking purposes. To
mirror that performance would require holding one hundred stocks
as of the First-June issue; clearly too many positions to be practical.
Whether you
are looking to build a portfolio from scratch, are partially invested
and looking to add new positions, or fully invested and in need
of some affirmation and hand holding, The Timely Ten presents our
top ten recommendations as of each issue. Short of utilizing the
personal investment management services of our sister company, this
is as close to real time as you can get.
The Timely Ten
consists of Undervalued stocks that generally have a S&P Dividend
& Earnings Quality rating of A- or better, a "G" designation
for exemplary long-term dividend growth, a P/E ratio of 15 or less,
a payout ratio of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), debt of 50% or
less (75% for Utilities), and technical characteristics on the daily
and weekly charts that suggests the potential for imminent capital
appreciation. This issue's selections are:

REGULATORY
REMINDER
Please keep in mind that as an investment newsletter, we are
legally bound to only answer questions of a general nature and are
unable to provide specific buy/sell recommendations or specific
advice on an individual basis. For those interested in obtaining
more information on individual management services in accordance
with our approach, we have a sister company named I.Q. Trends Private
Client Asset Management which is a Registered Investment Adviser.
Among the offerings provided by I.Q. Trends Private Client are individual
portfolio consultations and active account management. For more
information, please call Mr. Michael Minney at (858) 427-1071.
Disclosure documents
are located at: http://www.iqtrends.com/pc/
Join
us at the 29th Annual Money Show * San Francisco
This year's Show will be held July 26-28, 2007 at
the San Francisco Marriott in the heart of beautiful
downtown San Francisco. In addition to the 125 presenters in
the state-of-the-art exhibit hall, there will be 150 educational
workshops (three by IQ Trends) and 15 panel presentations
(two with Kelley Wright). For free admission call 800/970-4355
(be sure to mention IQ Trends and priority code #008722)
or visit: The Money Show-San Francisco's Home Page to register
today. If you do make plans to attend the Show please take a
minute to say hello to Michael or Kelley. |
CRITERIA
FOR SELECT BLUE CHIPS
When does a common stock become a "Select Blue Chip?"
According to our method a stock will deserve such a designation
after it has met at least 5 of the 6 following qualifications and
may remain with 4 criteria:
1. Dividend
increases five times in the last twelve years.
2. S&P Quality ranking in the "A" category.
3. At least 5,000,000 shares outstanding.
4. At least 80 institutional investors.
5. At least 25 years of uninterrupted dividends.
6. Earnings improved in at least seven of the last 12 years.
In the statistical
columns, "Blue Chip Criteria" identifies the number of
the above qualifications that each stock fulfills. A "G"
denotes a remarkable 10% annual dividend growth over the past 12
years. The I.Q. Trends register of Select Blue Chips is an elite
representation of the highest quality and most prosperous corporations
in the country.
"Values,when
applied to stocks,are determined in the end by the return to the
investor,and nothing is more certain than that the investor establishes
the price of stocks."ÑCharles H.Dow

FOOTNOTE
LEGEND
U - UNDERVALUED buying area: Dividend yield is historically
high and price is attractively low. Bargain buys.
O - OVERVALUED selling area: Dividend yield is historically
low and price is unattractively high. A sale should be considered
in this area.
R - RISING TRENDS: Stocks have moved at least 10% from Undervalue
and should be held until price is at or near Overvalue.
D - DECLINING TRENDS: Stocks have moved down at least 10%
from Overvalue and should be avoided until price is at or near Undervalue.

Kelley Wright
is currently outperforming all of his peers, by bringing in
the top risk-adjusted returns on Wall Street for the past 20 years,
with his
stock newsletter, IQTrends.com, at 12.8% annualized gains, according
to
Hulbertÿs Financial Digest. To subscribe, go to IQTrends.com.
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Sizzling Hot Summer
Stocks!
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks list, and one lovely company that doubled
in share price between April and July!
48%
of the companies featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and
2005 -- 25 out of 52 companies -- DOUBLED from the time we listed
them in our feature article to the time when I took the company
off of the Hot News on Cool Stocks list. (See the chart in the article,
"25
of our Companies Have Doubled," from volume
4, issue 4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
Additionally,
the market performance of the companies that are featured in my
Hot News on Cool Stocks list are still keeping me at the top of
over 830 A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com
in annualized gains! According to the Tipstraders tracking data,
all of the companies featured in the NataliePace.com Hot News list
are pulling down 30% gains on average every year. The Hot New list
below features 35 companies earning great gains, versus just five
that are headed in the opposite direction.
Housing
News:
The National Association of Home Builders reported last week
that builder confidence has fallen to the lowest level in 16 years,
and weakness in homebuilders continues. "As we look to our third
quarter and the remainder of 2007, we continue to see weak, and
perhaps deteriorating, market conditions," Lennar's President and
Chief Executive Stuart Miller said. Bank of America analyst Daniel
Oppenheim believes that inventory estimates are understated. In
a note to investors, he stated, "We think rising cancellations over
the past few months are leading to understated inventory levels,
as canceled homes are not added back to inventory in Census stats."
You'll note that KB Home and Toll Brothers, which have been on our
Cooling Off List since May 2005, are still losing market share.
Stock
Market:
Volatility is the name of the game, going forward this year,
according to respected analyst Tobias Levkovich, the Chief Analyst
for Smith Barney. In the 6.21.07 issue Smith Barney's Portfolio
Strategist, Mr. Levkovich wrote, "When it comes to various
sectors and groups affected by volatility, it seems obvious that
the IT sector is poised for renewed investor interest, as is the
Pharma & Biotech group. We remain overweight the IT sector,
but we advise a market weight position on the Pharma & Biotech
industry group."
That is partially
why I was so thrilled to see Genentech trading for a bargain today,
on 6.26.07! Genentech is a great biotech that is trading at a two-year
low.
There is a shakeup
going on in technology right now, so take a very close look at News
Corp., Yahoo and Google in particular this month. I'll be reporting
more in depth on this sector in the July mid-month update, just
days before Google releases earnings. This is probably going to
be one of the most valuable mid-month updates in years, so don't
miss it. As part of that evaluation, we're doing an online survey
to see what your favorite social networking site is. Please take
the survey,
and encourage your friends to as well. You can click on any survey
that appears on the home page to access all three surveys this month.
And of course,
WorldWater & Power is our rock star! We listed this solar
energy company -- that is trading off the boards with a $30 million
backlog of orders -- at 56 cents in April. It is has more doubled
in just three months to $1.32, largely because of the press the
company received when the CEO was selected to go on a "green"
tour with Governor Schwarzenegger to Canada.
The Federal
Reserve Board:
The Feds are meeting on June 27 and 28, 2007, after we take
this ezine to press. So, please go to the calendar section of NataliePace.com
if you'd like to access a link over to the Federal Reserve home
page. You should be able to read a copy of the press release there.
Stock
Market Overview:
As you can see below, the stock market over the last year
and a half has been a wonderful place to be. If you were invested,
chances are you are earning wonderful gains.
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday,
1.3.2006
|
Wednesday,
1.3.2007
|
Friday,
6.26.2007
|
Gains
17 & 5 months
|
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow:
13,337.66
|
+23%
& +7%
|
|
Nasdaq:
2,243.74
|
Nasdaq:
2,423.16
|
Nasdaq:
2,574.16
|
+15%
& +6.2%
|
|
S&P:
1,268.80
|
S&P:
1,416.60
|
S&P:
1,492.89
|
+18%
& +5%
|
Good-Bye Summer Doldrums:
I know you're sick of this section, but I'm going to keep
publishing it, in case we have some Johnny-Come-Latelys who are
clueless as to why this year has been such a great ride!
This year has
been a blast in the markets (so far), and is we have been predicting
when we first reported on the pre-election year trend, back in December
of last year! Typically, the summer is dull at best, and can be
downright disappointing, as you can see from the following chart
of returns. August is when most Wall Street professionals take their
vacation, trading volume tapers off and thus, with less demand,
you typically see flat performance over the summer, with July and
August trading off gains and losses.
Following are
average monthly returns from March 1971 through October 2003, which
were provided by Odyssey
Advisors.
|
Period
|
S&P
500
|
Nasdaq
|
|
November
- January
|
1.88%
|
2.53%
|
|
November
- June
|
1.39%
|
1.52%
|
|
July
- October
|
0.21%
|
-0.13%
|
|
Full
Year
|
1.00%
|
0.97%
|
By month, average returns were as followsÉ
|
Month
|
S&P
500
|
NASDAQ
|
|
Jan.
|
2.05%
|
3.77%
|
|
Feb.
|
0.49%
|
0.66%
|
|
March
|
1.21%
|
0.40%
|
|
April
|
1.52%
|
1.35%
|
|
May
|
1.28%
|
0.95%
|
|
June
|
1.02%
|
1.23%
|
|
July
|
0.11%
|
-0.21%
|
|
Aug.
|
0.54%
|
0.33%
|
|
Sept.
|
-1.02%
|
-1.14%
|
|
Oct.
|
1.20%
|
0.48%
|
|
Nov.
|
1.82%
|
1.95%
|
|
Dec.
|
1.78%
|
1.87%
|
Source: Odyssey
Advisors
In pre-election
years, however, the markets have, historically, taken a different
track. In 2003, while there was still a sideways trend in August
and September, the overall track for the year was strong gains -
especially in the NASDAQ.
The trend line
for 1999, another pre-election year, looked very similar. Also,
note how strong the Santa Rally trend is in both years, with 10-50%
gains in the last four months of the year.

We are in a
pre-election year and enjoying a stock market rally this summer.
Despite the concern over the real estate market and subprime mortgage
lenders, which the bears consider Wall Street doomsday omens, the
general feeling about Wall Street is that people want to be invested!
Should be a delightful year. Enjoy! Educate yourself! Invest wisely!
Read the other articles in the July ezine. There is a lot of GREAT
information to help you maximize your earning and gains.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Interest
Rates: In a Pause Pattern. The Federal Open Market Committee
has paused seven times in a row now (in May, March and January
2007, December, October, September and August 2006), after raising
interest rates 17 consecutive times prior. The federal funds
rate remains at 5-Å%. The meeting on June 27-28, 2007, occurred
after this ezine went to print. For an update or to review the
press release, go directly to FederalReserve.gov.
- Interested
in reading the Minutes of the May FOMC meeting
for yourself? You can. It is available online. Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! According to the FOMC,
"Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation
pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level
of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures."
The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2007
calendar is: June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday),
September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December
11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact
that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to increase
the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is an indicator
that there is double the concern over managing the economy in
the coming months.
- Pundits
are positing that the Feds may be preparing to cut rates before
the end of the year. That move usually serves to stimulate the
markets, which is one of the reasons that I expect 2007 to be
an up year for most of the marketplace. There is one BIG exception,
however. Many Blue Chips with exceptionally large pension and
Other Post Employment Benefits (like health care) burdens are
still very overvalued when you consider the amount of debt that
they are carrying and the tough time that they are having being
competitive in industries where there are other companies that
do not have to support a large pool of non-workers. While it
will be tempting to watch those stocks increase in value, I'd
recommend staying in companies that are leading our future,
rather than those that are stuck in the past. And never overpay
for anything - NEVER PAY RETAIL!
- Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out
the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are
many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, economists, respected money gurus and CEOs!
Please enter the chat room now to make sure that you know how
to do it and that you don't have any firewall issues preventing
you from accessing the room. (You'll need your passwords.) This
month, I'll be in the chat room on July 11th to discuss
how to maximize your subscription and access the Hot News on
Cool Stocks list. There is a special chat with Dr. Vijay Bose
on July 18th. Learn about the great new alternative
to Total Hip Replacements, called Hip Resurfacing. This procedure
has been done in England and India since 1995, and means that
active adults, like Floyd Landis, can still compete with no
pain!
Bottom Line:
NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. Your investments and portfolio
should take into account your age, your retirement goals, your risk
tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your
portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek
to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert,
don't bet the farm on the stock market.
NataliePace.com
is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an
online media service with a mission of providing the news and information
you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal
prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot
News on Cool Stocks List
Highlighted
Companies (Hot List):
Genentech (DNA)
Johnson
& Johnson (JNJ)
Satcon
(SATC)
Siruis Satellite Radio (SIRI)
Smith and Nephew (SNN)
U.S. Gold (UXG)
WisdomTree (WSDT)
Yahoo (YHOO)
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
Intuit
Hot Stocks
List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are
trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them or if you are willing to
come in at a higher price). There are never any guarantees in life,
and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified
financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
6.26.07
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Altair
Nanotechnology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$3.11
|
$3.72
|
$4.10
$2.48
|
+19.6%
|
|
Read the
Article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4,
iss. 6.
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$85.38
($83.93
on 2.27.07)
|
$119.65
|
$127.61
$50.16
|
+40% &
+42.6%
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips." Barclay's Global Investors purchased
over 5% interest in Apple on January 13, 2007. Google CEO
Dr. Eric Schmidt joined the Apple board of directors in Oct.
2006. Somehow Jobs skated through the options backdating scandal,
though former CFO Anderson and General Counsel Nancy Heinen
were nailed by the SEC. The popularity of the iPod and the
dominance that Jobs is gaining with his alliances with Disney
and Google should keep Apple at the top of the technology
performers over the next few years at minimum. The price is
high, and the new iPhone isn't going to be released until
June. If there is any bad news in the meantime, there may
be a buying opportunity. (However, Apple has done a smash-up
job of luring consumers, investors and reporters to focus
on products and sales, which are mind-boggling, instead of
the SEC investigation.) Apple is a company you're going to
want to own - and everyone wishes they'd had the prescience
to buy in at a better price. On 4.9.07, Apple(R) announced
that more than 100 million iPods have been sold in just 5
ý years, making it the fastest selling music device in history.
The iTunes Store has sold over 2.5 billion songs, 50 million
TV shows and over 1.3 million movies, making it the world's
most popular online music, TV and movie store. Apple TV
should begin streaming videos from YouTube in June 2007. Apple
shipped 1,517,000 Macintosh® computers and 10,549,000
iPods during the second quarter, representing 36 percent growth
in Macs and 24 percent growth in iPods over last year.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS
4.31%!
|
No
|
C
|
$50.38
|
$51.15
|
$57.00
$43.83
|
+1.5%
|
|
Announces
earnings on 7.20.07. Refer to the M&A
Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details
on Citigroup's appeal. Citigroup announced on May 10, 2007,
that Citigroup China would roll-out two new investment products
-- Structured Investment Accounts -- for the Chinese consumer
that would allow him/her to invest in equities or currencies,
with a principal protection feature. Just a few years ago,
all banks in China were state-owned enterprises. Citigroup
was first mover in the Chinese consumer equity marketplace.
Purchased AkBank on 1.09.07. Akbank currently has 675 branches
and 1,617 ATMs and is a premier, full-service retail, commercial,
corporate and private bank in Turkey, with assets of $39.6
billion, loans of $19.6 billion and a deposit base of $25.0
billion. It is the third largest bank by assets and the most
profitable private banking institution in the country. Hired
new CFO, Gary Crittenden, on 2.25.07, to be effective 3.15.07.
(Sallie Krawcheck will return to her old job as Chairman and
CEO of Citi's Global Wealth Management.) Sandy Weill spoke
on CNBC on 2.26.07 on having such a big company with an umbrella
over many divisions. He says, "I'd rather be with a company
that has a strong capital base, diversified by companies and
regions, in the event of a downturn."
|
|
Disney
Dividends:
.92%
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$34.06
|
$36.79
$23.77
|
+37%
|
|
Earnings
of 5.9.07 exceeded analyst expectations for the 2nd
straight quarter. You can listen to a recast of the executives
discussing the earnings results at: www.Disney.com/Investors
now through August 15, 2007. Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed
by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film
company meets the most successful family media company meets
the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds like
the happiest place on Earth to us. The largest individual
stockholder is Steve Jobs. During the first six months of
fiscal 2007, the Company repurchased 96 million shares for
approximately $3.3 billion, of which 67 million shares for
$2.3 billion were purchased in the second quarter. On May
1, 2007, the Board of Directors of the Company increased the
share repurchase authorization to a total of 400 million shares.
Pirates of the Caribbean blockbusters equal film
profits, DVD profits and renewed interest in the theme parks!
According to the annual report, CEO Bob Iger received $22
million in compensation last year (not including stock options).
His pay included $2 million salary and a $15 million cash
bonus. CEO Bob Iger was one of our Executives
of the Year in 2007.
Read the article in vol. 4, iss. 1.
|
|
eBay
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$29.75
|
$31.64
|
$35.41
$22.83
|
+6%
|
|
See the
articles, "eBay's
Skype
Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in volume 3, issue
9, "Executives
of the Year" in January 2007, which featured
CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss. 1). Skype's new products (Wi-Fi
VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware) will likely
start adding a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line by
the first quarter of 2007, since Skype is growing faster than
MySpace in terms of registered users, at 171 million as of
December 31, 2006. eBay bought StubHub Inc. for $310 million
on 1.12.07. StubHub said it generated about $100 million in
revenue in 2006 on $400 million gross ticket sales. eBay reported
1Q 2007 net revenue on April 18, 2007 of $1.77 billion, representing
a growth rate of 27% year over year. Net income was $377 million,
which is 52% higher than the same time last year. 10 million
shares were repurchased by eBay at a cost of $333 million
during the quarter, and the company has authorization to repurchase
an additional $2 billion through January 2009. Skype net revenues
totaled $79 million in Q1-07, a growth rate of 123% over the
$35 million reported in Q1-06. Skype had 196 million registered
users at the end of March 31, 2007, representing a 107% increase
from the 95 million users at the end of Q1-06. (Myspace had
184 million registered users as of 6.18.07.) Paypal net revenues
totaled $439 million, with 143 million accounts.
|
|
GAP
|
No
|
GPS
|
$20.30
$17.50
(3.16.07)
|
$19.20
|
$21.39
$15.91
|
-5.4%
&
+9.7%
|
|
See the
article, "Gap's
Inc(RED)ible Campaign," from vol. 3, iss. 12.
Sales are still weak, but the company is beating analyst expectations
and the founder is back in the interim CEO, as GAP continues
to search for the perfect design and management team. "We
are actively working to fix our core business, retain and
recruit talent, and streamline operations so that our organization
can be more nimble and efficient," said Bob Fisher, interim
president and chief executive officer at Gap Inc. "We took
important steps in the first quarter by strengthening leadership
teams and refining strategies at Gap and Old Navy. While we
are making progress, there is more work to be done." In the
"show me your friends and I'll tell you who you are"
category, the friends surrounding Gap these days are mighty,
powerful and successful. You've got Goldman Sachs advising
them on the turnaround strategy. GAP is one of an elite group
of companies that are attached to PRODUCT (RED), the pet project
of Bono and Bobby Shriver, alongside Apple, American Express,
Motorola, Emporio Armani and more. The fast, definitive action,
the ongoing commitment to Bono and Bobby Shriver's PRODUCT
(RED) and having Goldman Sachs in their corner really sets
the stage for some promising surprises for this legacy clothing
retailer. Especially if the team comes up with a winning designer.
Things could hardly be worse for the Gap, but, with the talent
assembled for this turnaround, we're optimistic that it is
always darkest before the dawn.
|
|
Eastern
Europe -- U.S. Global Investors
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$49.87
|
$50.00
$23.02
|
+47%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries,
in the right growing sectors. See vol.
2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as
to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy
stalls. Your international fund should reflect the difference.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
$81.13
$72.60
(6.24.07)
|
$72.60
|
$100.20
$72.60
|
+437%
&
-10.5%
flat
|
|
Trading
at a 52-week low! Announces its 2007 second quarter earnings
on Wednesday, July 11, 2007, after the markets close. Last
quarter revenue was up 43%. Major growth for a big cap, and
trading at prices not seen in over two years! Purchased
Tanox on 1.16.07. Received 8 FDA approvals in 2006. DNA is
a Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Genentech
specializes in DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately
eliminate the need for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the
blood supply to the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector,
but this popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline
of drugs. Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and
DNA has appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin
alone is expected to bring in $2 billion in annual sales in
2007. Genentech reported record 1Q 2007 earnings results on
4.11.07: GAAP net income increase of 68 percent to $706 million
from $421 million one year ago, on product sales of $2.037
billion, compared to $1.569 billion a year ago (+30%). Tarceva
is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $402 million
in 2006, and $102 million in the 1st Q 2007. DNA's
P/E ratio is well below other biotechnology growth companies.
On 4.12.07, DNA exceeded analyst earnings expectations for
the 2nd straight quarter.
|
|
Google
(Green)
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$530.26
|
$534.99
$331.55
|
+524%
|
|
The
next earnings report will be on July 19th at 1:30
pm PT, and thus, I plan on doing a BIG RE-EVALUATION of Google
in my July mid-month update, which will be published on July
16th. There is so much insider selling going on, and reports
of Google losing a major chunk of ads. DO NOT MISS THE JULY
MID-MONTH UPDATE!! Google joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06.
Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Owns YouTube.com,
one of the most popular sites on the web, which just got hit
with a billion dollar lawsuit from Viacom on 3.13.07. $48
million sold so far by insiders in Dec. 2006 and Jan. 2007;
$14 million by Eric Schmidt. In june 2007, Director John Doerr
sold $30 million of shares. Dr. Eric Schmidt was one of our
Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol.
4, iss. 1. Google reported revenues of $3.66 billion for the
1st quarter 2007, which ended March 31, 2007, an
increase of 63% compared to the first quarter of 2006 and
an increase of 14% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006.
GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $1.0 billion
as compared to $1.03 billion in the fourth quarter of 2006.
In the 2nd quarter of 2007, stock options granted
in 2004 will become vested, and employees could have a lot
of fun cashing in. Google anticipates taking up to $160 million
on earnings for these vested options. Additionally, eBay just
pulled a large block of ads that were on Google, and placed
those ads on other search engines, like Yahoo. Keep your radar
up for news in July 2007, when the 2nd quarter
earnings report should be released - ie. don't buy Google
before the July earnings report (and really at this price
why buy Google now? Hedge funds are punishing corporations
that miss earnings by a penny. Could pay to monitor the price
over the next few months, and if you are daytrading, I'd expect
a lot of volatility in the next two earnings reports. The
growth continues to be amazing, and the share price continues
to be amazingly volatile! The savvy daytrader would buy on
disappointment and sell on hot headlines. The long-term investor
would buy at the 52-week low and hold to will to the kids.
(Notice that Google is NOT highlighted and is not considered
to be a good buy right now.) You can listen to a webcast of
the April 19th earnings call at http://investor.google.com/webcast.html.
|
|
Intel
|
No
|
INTC
|
$19.13
|
$23.38
|
$24.25
$16.75
|
+22%
|
|
See "Apple
Chips," article in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating
Advanced Micro Devices in products and price. AMD is fighting
back in court and by slashing costs. The price war is tough
on both, but easier for Goliath to win. Intel's sales
were down (largely due to AMD competition) from $38.8B in
2005 to $35.38B in 2006. A Good Blue Chip long term
hold for your portfolio, with dividends.
|
|
Jet Blue
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
JBLU
|
$12.81
$10.51
(6.15.07)
|
$11.03
|
$17.02
$9.23
|
-14% &
+5%
|
|
If you
invest in JetBlue, bear in mind that a spike in gas or oil
prices would severely ping profitability at the airline. Fuel
is one of the biggest expenses of any carrier, and operating
margins are sliver thin. George Soros and David Neeleman (CEO)
both sold millions at the end of May, at $10/share. Both still
have millions of shares remaining as well. Because of the
proportions of this selling (and the amount of shares both
have remaining), the proximity of the sales and the relatively
low price of the stock, it almost smells of a deal, rather
than lining one's own pockets.
|
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
No
|
JNJ
|
$61.65
|
$61.65
|
$69.41
$58.97
|
Flat
|
|
Read
the article, "Bionic Baby Boomers," in vol. 4, iss.
7. Johnson & Johnson is a mega-cap corporation with many
products, and a small presence in the hip resurfacing arena.
Growth is 16% annually, with a 17.40 P/E. Stable, dividend-paying
Blue Chip that is undervalued currently.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
$8.42
(6.1.07)
|
$8.96
|
$13.83
$7.14
|
-12% &
+6.4%
|
|
Have you
visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy
Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? KKD is expanding into
Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia
and Japan. There are currently approximately 296 Krispy Kreme
stores and 99 satellites operating system-wide in 41 U.S.
states, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait,
Mexico, the Philippines, the Republic of South Korea, United
Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. If you love their product,
KKD's CEO has proven to be a turnaround specialist, and he's
done a great job over the past year. KKD caught up with all
of their SEC filings on 1.29.07, and is looking to the future
now. KKD refinanced old debt on 2.17.07. Lynn Crump-Caine
(a 30-year McDonald's veteran) and C. Stephen Lynn (former
Chairman and CEO of Shoney's and Sonic Corp.) were recently
elected for director posts. CFO, general counsel and board
member Bob Strickland have been replaced at KKD. June 4 earnings
report wasn't fantastic, however, the new team has a strong
pedigree in the restaurant business. Revenues for the first
quarter decreased 7.1% to $110.9 million compared to $119.4
million in the first quarter of last year. The net loss for
the first quarter was $7.4 million, or $0.12 per diluted share,
compared to a net loss of $6.0 million, or $0.10 per diluted
share, in the comparable period last year. 1Q earnings was
announced on June 4, 2007.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$35.30
(11.11)
|
$57.68
|
$68.80
$26.26
|
+63%
|
|
Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, iss.
10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price
its product and pick its customers accordingly. On 4.27, the
company exceeded analyst expectations for the 2nd
straight quarter. MEMC will receive $2.5 billion to $3 billion
in revenue from sales of the wafers over the 10-year period
from Taiwan's Gintech Energy (solar). MEMC also will be eligible
to purchase a 10 percent interest in Gintech, as well as acquire
the rights to a parcel of land of about 1.7 hectares, or about
4.2 acres, located within the Hsinchu Science Park. Supplies
silicon ingots to Suntech Power Holdings, and owns a stake
in that company as well. The CEO has cashed out over $78 million,
and plans to continue to "diversify" his holdings
through 2010. Investors have cashed out over $3 billion. This
is colossal insider selling, however, after decades of solar
energy being out of favor, this may be the first time the
investors have been able to roll out their decades long investments.
According to Memc's Chief Executive Officer, Nabeel Gareeb,
"I am taking advantage of this open window to directly
exercise and sell approximately 10% of my outstanding options
as part of my estate diversification plan. I believe that
MEMC remains on a positive trajectory as indicated by the
results over the last five years, and I am confident about
our future as indicated by the long-term nature of this plan."
|
|
NetGear
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$35.61
|
$38.75
$16.64
|
+187%
|
|
Watch
Natalie
Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com
Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August
2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst &
Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear
is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype
phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone
is available online. It's a great product that allows you
to connect to Skype and call anyone worldwide anywhere there
is a WiFi signal. An October report from Jupiter Research
predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe
to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by
2010. 4Q And full year 2006 earnings were released on February
15, 2007. 2006 net revenue increased to $573.6 million, 28%
year-over-year growth. Net income, computed in accordance
with GAAP, for 2006 was $41.1 million or $1.19 per diluted
share. This net income was a 22% increase compared to net
income of $33.6 million for 2005. Announced earnings on
4.26.07 of $173.6 million net revenue, 36% year-over-year
growth. GAAP net income was $14.0 million. Is the company
overvalued with the 29.10 P/E? With all of the promising new
products (Skype phones), and the product alliance with Avaya,
NetGear is poised to continue strong growth.
|
|
News Corp.
Vol. 2,
iss. 10
Dividends:
.54%
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
NWS
|
$15.88
|
$21.51
|
$25.40
$18.18
|
+35.4%
|
|
Owns Fox,
MySpace, and print publications. Just sold DirecTV. News Corp.
has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program
initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program
to $6.0 billion. DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men.
Theatrical hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada,
Little Miss Sunshine and Napoleon Dynamite. MySpace
CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson were our Executives
of the Year in 2006. Read the article in vol.
3, iss. 1. Spam issues have lead California teens to jump
over to FaceBook. If Myspace were led by less capable, passionate
executives, I'd be plenty worried right now. We'll monitor,
but with the addition of video and the strong music fan base,
it's hard to imagine Myspace imploding. According to Gabe,
17, from Santa Monica, "I use FaceBook more. It's become
the easier thing. MySpace has been corrupted by aliens - all
of these hackers who send people adverts." We'll keep
monitoring. Next earnings report should be in August, 2007.
|
|
Opsware
See issue
44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$9.28
|
$10.40
$6.23
|
+415%
|
|
Named
to Deloitte and Touche's prestigious Technology Fast 50 Program
for Silicn Valley on 10.26.06. It was announced on 2.13.06
that Cisco will distribute Opsware's products worldwide and
that the companies will collaborate on advanced network management
solutions built on Opsware's Network Automation System. CEO
Ben Horowitz said, in an interview during March of 2007, that
the Cisco deal just started kicking in August of 2006, and
that the best is yet to come. Opsware automates the complete
IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically discover, provision,
patch, configure, secure, change, scale, audit, recover, consolidate,
migrate, and reallocate servers, network devices and applications.
Over 350 of the world's largest companies, outsourcers and
government agencies use Opsware to deliver this new, automated
model of IT. Read the Company
of the Year article in vol. 1, iss. 44. Surpassed
$100 million in revenue for full year 2006 ($101.7 million),
up 67% over the prior year! On April 4, 2007, the analyst
firm IDC identified Opsware Inc. OPSW as the market share
leader and the fastest growing vendor in the worldwide network
change and configuration management (NCCM) market for the
period 2005-2006. Opsware took the top spot with 31.4 percent
of market share in 2006, more than 10 share points ahead of
the closest competitor. On May 30, Opsware Inc. announced
net revenue for its first quarter ended April 30, 2007 totaling
$28.3 million, up 29% from the same quarter last year and
exceeding the company's previously guided range. GAAP net
loss in the first quarter was $(10.6) million or $(0.10) per
share. According to CEO Ben Horowitz, "Our pipeline is
up 50% from this time last quarter and we are on track to
grow bookings by 60% this year." Net revenue is expected to
total approximately $31 - 32 million in the quarter ending
July 31, 2007.
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$36.86
$33.00
(4.1.07)
|
$35.40
|
$43.17
$22.04
|
-4% &
+7.2%
|
|
Tarceva
is the genetic based "cancer pill," and sales have
been exploding, up to $402 million in 2006, after being approved
by the FDA in just 2004. OSIP is a partner of Genentech (DNA)
and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application for
other cancers, including lung cancer. Industry sales data
has placed the cancer drug market's value at more than $20
billion annually and it is growing fast. Announced 1Q results
on April 26, 2007 of net income of $19.7 million, compared
with $376,000 a year ago. Revenues jumped to $77 million from
$59 million a year ago, an increase of 31%.
|
|
Satcon
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.24
$1.12
(6.15.07)
|
$1.19
|
$2.33
$.73
|
-4%
&
+6%
|
|
Read
the article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," from
vol. 4, iss. 6.
|
|
Sirius
$6.3
Bil Market Cap
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
SIRI
|
$3.85
$2.90
(6.1.07)
|
$2.93
|
$4.84
$2.72
|
-24.7%
& flat
|
|
Sirius
and XM Satellite Radio issued a joint press release on February
20, 2007 saying that they will combine the companies, for
an "enterprise" value of $13 billion and net debt
of $1.6 billion. Mel Karmazin remains CEO of the combined
company, while Gary Parsons, the CEO of XM-SR, will become
the Chairman. The merger is being challenged in Congress and
hearings have begun in the matter. Sirius and XM issued a
joint release, saying, "The commission's published rules do
not prohibit one satellite radio licensee from acquiring control
of the other." Thomas Hazlett, the former Chief Economist
of the Federal Communications Commission, Professor of Law
& Economics at George Mason University, published a report
on June 14th saying that the merger increases audio
competition and will "predictably enhance consumer welfare."
This story is developing and we will keep you posted. In
the meantime, Sirius has launched backseat tv on Chrysler
cars beginning in 2008, and is a factory installed option
for Land Rovers and Mini hard tops. Reports earnings May 1,
2007. XM-SR and SIRI both just posted a smaller loss due to
a spike in subscription revenue. (This was first reported
on the home page, in our Daily Bread quote section, on 4.30.07.
Be sure to check our home page daily for updates and information!)
|
|
Smith
& Nephew
|
No
|
SNN
|
$60.94
|
$60.94
|
$64.35
$36.70
|
flat
|
|
Read
the article in vol. 4, iss. 7. Smith and Nephew are the first
movers in the fast-growing US hip resurfacing marketplace.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese
Co. ADR)
918.7
Mil Market Cap
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$28.43
|
$29.96
$20.23
|
+62%
|
|
See NataliePace.com
ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and volume
2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Dr.
Charles Zhang, the Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of
our CEOs
of the year in 2007. Read the articles in vol.
4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview
I did on the Forbes.com
Video Network. Sohu was selected as the official sponsor
of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic
Games. Could be some bumps in the road between now and
Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it.
Dr. Charles Zhang says, "I have full confidence that
our competitive advantage in technology will solidify Sohu's
leadership position in the China Internet space, especially
in the brand advertising market." Ms. Carol Yu, Co-president
and CFO of Sohu.com, stated, "Our primary focus continues
to be on our core advertising business, which contributed
68% of our total revenues for fiscal year 2006. Our outlook
remains bullish, especially during the run-up to the 2008
Olympics. Our most enviable role as Internet Sponsor of the
Beijing 2008 Olympics is the most important differentiating
factor between Sohu and other Internet companies." Announced
quarterly results on May 1, 2007 of total revenues of US$33.1
million, up 9% year-on-year and down 4% quarter-on-quarter,
meeting company guidance and GAAP net income of US$4.5 million
or US$0.12 per fully diluted share. Dr. Zhang is positioning
Sohu to be a "thought leader in the way new technologies
change the Internet industry in China."
|
|
SunTech
Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
|
$34.36
|
$40.49
$21.57
|
+32.4%
|
|
See vol.
4, iss. 1 for our Company
of the Year article, which names SunTech the Company
of 2007. Also, check out vol.
3, issue 10, and vol.
2, iss. 12 for our articles on solar energy. On February
21, 2007, Suntech's CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable
on Climate Change which is part of the Earth Institute of
Columbia University in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable
brings together more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders
from all regions of the world. On 2.15.07, STP announced that
it had raised $500 million in a public debt offering of senior
note convertibles, due in 2012. STP had to raise its offering
due to strong demand (a very good sign). STP and the University
of New South Wales signed a new $1.2 million collaborative
research agreement through 2007 with a $3 million extension
through 2010. Suntech will supply solar modules with an aggregate
output of 23.2MW to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic
Grid Connection Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the
world's largest solar power plant. SunTech is also the official
solar provider of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that
it will enjoy a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. ''I am
very pleased that our team has yet again proven that Suntech
is the industry leader in combining world class R&D advancements
with high quality products while maintaining the lowest cost
per watt solution, bringing us one large step closer to being
the first solar manufacturer to reach grid parity,'' CEO Shi
said, commenting on the development of "semiconductor
finger technology." Dr. Shi is one of our Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. Announced earnings on 5.29.07, total net revenues grew
174.5% year-over-year to $246.7 million, and total production
output grew 138.2% year-over-year to 64.7MW. Non-GAAP net
income was $35.9 million.
|
|
T. Rowe
Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See vol.
2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$34.48
|
$35.00
$12.00
|
+66.4%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and vol.
2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern EU rocks,
while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify, as well as
to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries. Avoid
the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic growth,
like Germany and France. International investing in the right
sectors and countries pays off!
|
|
Time-Warner
(owns
AOL)
Dividends!
RISK:
Low
|
No
|
TWX
|
$16.76
|
$21.21
|
$23.15
$15.70
|
+27%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 9, "eBay's
Skype
Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace" for a report card
that features Time-Warner. TWX's The Departed won Best
Picture of the Year! AOL and Time-Warner have finally figured
out how to work together. Chairman & CEO Richard D. Parsons,
successfully fought off Carl Icahn, and Mr. Parsons has proven
to be a decisive and visionary leader in other matters as
well. On May 9, 2007, Chris Albrecht, the former Chairman
and CEO of Home Box Office, was let go, after choking his
girlfriend in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino,
after the Oscar de la Hoya and Floyd Mayweather Jr. title
fight. TWX is buying back company stock. According to Mr.
Parsons, "We remain committed to delivering superior returns
to our shareholders by driving execution, generating industry-leading
operating and financial results, and allocating our capital
effectively. In addition to targeting resources to key growth
areas of our businesses, our $20 billion share repurchase
program -- which recently surpassed one billion shares of
our common stock bought to date -- continues to be an attractive
investment at current price levels." In the 1st
Q 2007, Revenues rose 9% over the same period in 2006 to $11.2
billion, led by growth at the Cable segment. Net debt is still
high, compared to cash flow, at $34.0 billion.
|
|
Trina
Solar Limited
RISK:
Medium
Chinese-based
ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$44.08
&
$43.18
(6.15.07)
|
$47.75
|
$68.90
$17.05
|
+8.3%
&
+10%
|
|
See vol.
4, iss. 4 for the article "Green
Hits the Mainstream," and vol. 3, issue 10, and
vol. 2, iss. 12 for other articles on solar energy. This is
a profitable solar energy company, based out of China. The
international management team is very strong, as are sales,
growth and profitability.
|
|
UQM Technologies
|
No
|
UQM
|
$3.97
|
$4.24
|
$5.50
$2.19
|
+7%
|
|
Read the
article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," from vol.
4, iss. 6.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$4.00
on
3.16.07
|
$5.04
|
$10.30
$.35
|
Flat
&
+26%
|
|
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in vol.
3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen
on the Forbes.com Video Network. Note: U.S. Gold is not
producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company,
based in Nevada. Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, was awarded
the "Most Innovative CEO" award in 2006 by Canadian Business
magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star Execs roundup."
Motley Fool just added U.S. Gold to their "5 Low-Priced,
High-Star Stocks" on 2.6.07. As more press comes on board,
the price should reflect the wooing of Wall Street investors.
(Now, if the company strikes gold, we'll all be geniusesÉ)
"Our acquisitions are complete and US Gold's property has
grown from 36 square miles to approximately 250 square miles
in Nevada," said Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, in a press
release issued on 6.12.07. "Our drill results are similar
to early-stage discovery holes at major Nevada deposits that
host millions of ounces of gold. We are continuing our aggressive
drilling and exploration program at our top-priority targets:
Keystone, Limousine Butte, Gold Bar, and Tonkin." Read the
article above for more detailed info on this gold exploration
company.
|
|
World
Water & Power
VERY HIGH
RISK
Trading
off the boards
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$.59
|
$1.32
|
$1.29
$.14
|
+123%
|
|
See vol.
4, iss. 4 for the article Green
Hits the Mainstream, and vol. 3, issue 10, and
vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This is a very
high-risk company in the solar-energy/water purification sector.
In June 2007, CEO Quentin Kelly was invited by Governor Schwarzenegger
to join him on the Governor's tour of Canada, during the California-Canada
Conference on Clean Technologies in Vancouver. Mr. Kelley
was selected due to WWAT's leading role in building prominent
solar energy projects in California, including the recently-announced
Fresno airport solar complex as well as the largest solar-powered
agricultural system in the world and only self-sustaining
water utility.
|
|
Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
$20.33
|
$24.08
$14.97
|
+20%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy.
This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates
its holdings regularly, but falls and rises on the good or
bad news of alternative energy companies which it may not
even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year on bad
news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply, even
though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings
on 1.12.07: SunPower, Echelon, Cypress, Cree, First Solar,
OM Group, Universal Display, Kyocera, Suntech Power Holdings,
Applied Materials.
|
|
WisdomTree
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$8.70
$5.10
(6.26.07)
|
$5.10
|
$9.94
$3.15
|
-41%
& flat
|
|
See
vol. 4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees." This is a well-managed "smart"
ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, and trades on earnings
instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a war chest
of capital and a former SEC chairman as one of the senior
advisors.
|
|
Yahoo
|
No
|
YHOO
|
27.71
|
27.71
|
33.74
22.65
|
flat
|
|
We
just re-added Yahoo to the list effective 6.15.07. Over the
past few years, Yahoo has waxed and waned (and as a result
has been on this list and on the Cooling Off list). New President/former
CFO Susan Decker reports that,"As we look ahead, we are very
excited about the transformational changes taking place on
the Internet, creating greater opportunities for both users
and marketers, and we are confident that Yahoo! has the right
combination of assets to help lead this evolution." Yahoo
execs have been saying that for years now, and still under-delivering
relative to their peers, like Google, but with Terry Semel
coaching (as non-executive Chairman) and Jerry Wang leading
(as CEO) can Yahoo jumpstart their stalled potential? Why
do we believe her this time? eBay's CEO Meg Whitman has just
put a lot of ads on Yahoo, which were previously the exclusive
domain of Google. According to the Associated Press, the move
is "a test to see whether it could get more bang for
its buck if it increased its spending on other search engines,
including Yahoo, IAC/InterActiveCorp.'s Ask.com and Microsoft
Corp.'s MSN." If Yahoo really does have their game together
this time, then the ad dollars might stick around and even
grow. We'll keep reporting more, but with the sleeping giant
Yahoo, which still tops the Internet sites with registered
users, time online and page views (along with Google, Myspace,
AOL and MSN), even the first sign of waking is worth noting!
Former CEO Terry Semel stepped down officially on June 18,
in an amicable move, without taking a severence compensation
with him. The Financial Times reports that his compensation
package of $71.7m in 2006 was the highest among S&P 500
chief executives surveyed by The Associated Press. Semel has
already exercised options valued at more than $450 million,
not including the 2006 compensation (so he can afford to "resign"
and forego the severence package). The new advertising platform,
code-named Panama, is expected to help revenues in the current
quarter, according to the Financial Times.
|
Sony (NYSE:
SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell
(NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the
Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains.
Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands
was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains, Agilent on 2.1.07
with flat performance, and RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains
on 2.1.07. Blockbuster ran up 82.5% in gains, which we cashed in
on February 12, 2007.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
|
Intuit
|
No
|
INTU
|
$31.72
$27.36
(4.1.07)
|
$30.05
|
$35.98
$22.93
|
-5.2%
&
+10%
|
|
Growth
is primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks software
and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. According to Amazon.com,
Intuit has seven of the top 10 bestsellers for office and
business, including the top four bestsellers. Intuit posted
GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net income
of $367 million in the quarter compared to $299 million in
the third quarter of 2006. 3Q 2007 revenue increased 21 percent
over the year-ago quarter -- to $1.15 billion. (This is the
1st quarter that Intuit has exceeded one billion
in revenue.) Intuit CFO Kiran Patel will replace Brad Henske,
as the new General Manager and SVP of TurboTax. Henske is
leaving to join the private equity firm Hellman & Friedman.
Intuit is searching for a new CFO. None of this impressed
investors, and frankly, I think I just got bored with this
one. Unwilling to go through the next quarter's seasonal drop-off.
If you think I'm missing something, email me with compelling
news, and I'll think about adding it back.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Great Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching
and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better price),
if you believe the news on future potential. There are never any
guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult
your certified financial planner before making any changes to your
investment strategy.
Recent Additions:
LifeCell added 7.1.07
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
6.26.07
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Advanced
Micro Devices
|
No
|
AMD
|
$16.22
|
$14.16
|
$42.70
$12.10
|
-12.7%
|
|
Read the
"Apple Chips" article in vol. 4, iss. 2 for our
take on the current battle between AMD and Intel. AMD's strategy
of litigate to win loses, in our view. In tech, the geeks
beat the suits. Better products win, not law suits. The most
recent losses that AMD has taken (due to an acquisition they
made and the price squeeze on products that Intel put them
in) have also led to rumors that the company is in a cash
crunch. Intel looks more promising in today's climate, if
the price is right, but AMD is worthy of keeping an eye on.
AMD's sales were down from $5.8B in 2005 to $5.6B in 2006.
Intel is now on our Hot News list. Earnings news (from 4.19.07):
AMD reported first quarter 2007 revenue of $1.233 billion,
an operating loss of $504 million, and a net loss of $611
million, or $1.11 per share. These results include ATI acquisition-related
and integration charges of $113 million, or $0.21 per share,
and employee stock-based compensation expense of $28 million,
or $0.05 per share. In the fourth quarter of 2006, AMD reported
revenue of $1.773 billion and an operating loss of $529 million.
In the first quarter of 2006, AMD reported revenue of $1.332
billion and operating income of $259 million. AMD is betting
on the Barcelona chip for its recovery. There is a special
meeting for stockholders being held on July 16, 2007 in Austin,
TX. The line item under discussion at the meeting is an
amendment to the Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 2000 Employee
Stock Purchase Plan. Chairman and CEO Hector de J. Ruiz received
$12.8 million in compensation in 2006, according to the Proxy
Statement filed with the SEC on 5.31.07.
|
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$22.73
|
$23.26
|
$41.66
$17.49
|
+2.3%
|
|
As you
can see from the 52-week high, GG's price is not unreasonable,
however, we like keeping an eye on good companies like this,
just waiting for weakness in the sector to cause a more attractive
buy-in rate. Goldcorp has more upside potential, in our view,
than most of the other larger gold companies, like Newmont.
For a high risk gold company, check out U.S. Gold on the Hot
News list. Reason for being on the sidelines? Everyone's more
interested in the Dow than in gold right now! If inflation
really starts to heat up - say next year - things could be
more favorable for gold, however.
|
|
LifeCell
Vol. 1,
iss. 55
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$31.06
|
$29.64
|
$33.00
$15.11
|
-4.5%
|
|
The FDA
issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on
10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took
a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q Ô05 to reflect the recall.
LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing
rapidly, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested
tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not
over. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down
BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases,
among other violations. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs
who unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services
and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown.
LifeCell has set up a testing program for anyone who received
the BTS donor tissue. LifeCell has been named in "several"
lawsuits related to this matter, according to the earnings
report filed on 10.26.2006. "There can be no assurance
that the level of insurance maintained will be sufficient
to cover the claims or that the all of the claims will be
covered by the terms of any insurance." There has been
at least $15.5 million in insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller
in last 12 months. LifeCell has a great product in high demand,
but the potential fallout of the unscreened human tissue could
be more than most small capitalization companies can take.
The 4Q Earnings call on April 25, 2007 is available for you
to listen to. Call (877) 704-5379 to listen in. Replays are
available at (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820: The replay
access code is 4423963. The FDA issued "501k clearance"
on a new LifeCell soft tissue regenerative (repair) product
on June 13, 2007. We'll do a full report on LifeCell for the
August issue.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.34
|
$29.52
|
$31.39
$21.45
|
+4%
|
|
World's
largest software company. $31 billion in cash. Launched Zune
on Nov. 14, 2006 and Vista earlier this year. New products
have not received "buzz" or outstanding sales. The
latest ruling that Microsoft has to pay $1.52 billion to Alcatel
Lucent is a blow to any music service that didn't license
MP3 technology with Alcatel, including, potentially, Apple.
Great blue chip for your long term portfolio because with
the war chest and talent at MSFT, even this year's assembly
line of flops shouldn't bring the company down, although it
may bring out the firing rod. Will pressure come down on Steve
Ballmer, CEO? Trading at a 52-week high, so waiting for a
better buy-in opportunity might yield better returns.
|
Cooling Off Stocks List:
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
General Motors (GM)
Recently
Deleted from the Cooling Off list:
LifeCell (LIFC) on 7.1.07
Cooling
Off Stocks (that may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this
cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in
value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the
recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits,
dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms,
while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate,
always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note, that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
6.26.07
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Fannie
Mae
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
$68.75
(5.25.07)
|
$66.74
|
$69.29
$45.93
|
+10% &
-3%
|
|
Spending
$1 billion on accounting fees related to the accounting scandal.
Fannie Mae is behind on filing 2005 and 2006 annual reports.
If it fails to file the reports by December 31, 2007, the
company could be delisted. (In the meantime, FNM is subject
to quarterly review by the NYSE.) And yet investors are still
in to the tune of $58.44 billionÉ. Are you? Better check your
mutual funds. The recent subprime lending fallout doesn't
bode well for FNM. According to the AP, "Maintaining
strong asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie
Mae, given the recent weakening of housing values from the
very strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard
and Poor's has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae.
|
|
General
Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$32.35
$36.38
(6.26)
|
$36.38
|
$36.83
$24.52
|
+12%
& flat
|
|
See
the article "Faded
Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue
8. According to the AP, Delphi could be in trouble with investors
who are offering to help them emerge from bankruptcy, if they
do not get concessions from their labor force by February
28, 2007. The UAW issued a press release on February 1, 2007,
writing, "Neither the company nor the potential investors
has demonstrated a willingness to resolve the substantial
issues which divide us." Delphi used to be a division
of GM, and GM has a stake in the company and in their labor
force obligations. Delphi reported a $2 billion loss for the
3rd quarter. According to GM's annual earnings
report, "We believe that we are competitively disadvantaged
because we provide pension benefits and OPEB, consisting of
both retiree health care and life insurance, to more than
400,000 retirees and surviving spouses in the United States."
Additionally, GM has financial obligations to Delphi's workers,
which kick in if Delphi doesn't meet it's obligations. Almost
every risk factor which GM listed in the annual report has
occurred - prices for parts are higher due to the metals commodity
crunch, gas prices have turned consumers to gas efficient
vehicles, Delphi's position with the UAW is tenuous and liquidity
over the long term is a question mark, unless they can turn
things around. GM had a "net loss of $2.0 billion in
2006 and $10.4 billion in 2005," according to the SEC
filing. Total debt is $38.7 billion, while GM's current value
on Wall Street is only $16.56 billion.
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KB Home
|
No
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KBH
|
$59.00
|
$39.82
|
$56.08
$37.89
|
-32.5%
|
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2Q 2007
earnings will be released on June 28, 2007, before the market
opens. You can access a webcast of the results at www.kbhome.com.
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006, after
SEC investigation of backdating options. Karatz is scheduled
to repay $13 million to the company, however, his retirement
package has not been negotiated, meaning that his golden parachute
could far exceed the $13 million he's promised to reimburse.
Additionally, Karatz cashed out over $100 million in stock
over the last two years. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch,
Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They
Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005,
we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue,
with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing
out of contracts and rising inventory.
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Novastar
Financial
|
No
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NFI
|
$7.04
&
$9.53
(6.15.07)
|
$8.10
|
$35.97
$3.25
|
+15%
&
-15%
|
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See
the article (Sub) Prime Time in the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4,
iss. 5.
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Toll Brothers
|
No
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TOL
|
$37.82
|
$25.00
|
$35.64
$22.22
|
-34%
|
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1Q earnings
on 2.22.07: first-quarter contracts totaled 1,027 units, down
33% from 1,544 units in the first quarter of FY 2006. 2007's
first-quarter cancellation rate of 29.8% was lower than the
36.9% cancellation rate in fourth-quarter 2006. However, it
was still well above the Company's historical average of about
7%. The company is trimming its exposure to optioned land,
reducing lots to 67,500, from 83,200 just two years ago. Robert
Toll, CEO, reports $1.1 billion in unused credit lines and
$450 million in cash. 2007s first-quarter net income was $54.3
million, or $0.33 per share diluted, compared to 2006's first-quarter
record of $163.9 million, or $0.98 per share diluted. Meanwhile,
brother Bruce Toll continues his selling spree, which totals
$49 million since September 2006 (source: MoneyCentral.Msn.com).
Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and
Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5 in 2005, when we first reported on
REITs as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities
action complaint, from June 2007, alleging that Toll Brothers
"and one or more members of its senior management, violated
federal securities laws by issuing various materially false
and misleading statements that had the effect of artificially
inflating the market price of the Company's securities and
causing Class members to overpay for the securities."
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The following
companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06.
Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). LifeCell was removed
on 7.2.07 with -4.5% overall performance. (The cooling off list
anticipates that a company will lose share price value.)
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a
competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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NataliePace.com Calendar:
It's
a month of schooling and wizardry - quite odd for July wouldn't
you say? Harry Potter's new film and book are released and NataliePace.com
subscribers learn about the hip new hip resurfacing procedure that
allows active adults, like Floyd Landis, to compete post op.
The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas and online chats
with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! Visit our calendar section
often.
See below
for just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Saturday,
June 30th, 2007
The Edge of
the World Theater Festival 2007
12:00PM (6/30/07) through 12:00AM (7/1/07) PT
A raw empty
theater space - Twelve hours - 20 Theater pieces by some of LA's
most groundbreaking artists. Live DJs & cool libations.The Regent
Theater, 448 S. Main, Los Angeles. Check the Edgefest
website for more details.
Wednesday,
July 11th, 2007
Online Cyber
Chat with Natalie Pace
8:45AM through 9:30AM PT
Learn how to access the Hot Stocks
list twice a month and maximize your subscription. Ask Natalie all
of your questions about how best to maneuver the site and capitalize
on the amazing information we've been publishing going into our
fifth year. Most recently, WorldWater & Power popped in share
price from just 57 cents at our feature in April to $1.12 on June
22, 2007.

Friday, July
13th, 2007
Film release: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Harry forms Dumbledore's Army and teaches
his friends how to battle the Dark Arts.
Wednesday,
July 18th, 2007
Hip Resurfacing Chat with Dr. Vijay Bose!
7:30AM through 8:30AM PT
Dr. Vijay Bose is one of the most experienced
surgeons in the world with regard to the newly approved hip resurfacing
procedure, which can keep an active adult enjoying sports and pain-free!
Find out more from the Doc!
Saturday, July 21st,
2007
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
The final book in the popular book
series will be released on July 21, 2007. Plan on waiting in line
for this, or you can pre-order on your favorite online shopping
site.
Monday, July 30th,
2007
Global Full Moon Meditation
10:00PM through 11:00PM
ET
On each full moon, people worldwide
meditate at the same time, to promote greater health within and
greater peace throughout the world. Meditate for 5 minutes or quiet
your mind and focus on peace for the full hour.
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VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
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of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
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team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
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and does not operate or act as one.
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