Vol.1 Issue 45 Februrary 1st. , 2004
Send comments and suggestions. or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Week:
“Output is expanding briskly… The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation."
- Federal Reserve Board,
in their release dated 1.28.04
To view the entire release, click here

  • Beauty & The Board Room: 8 Wall Street Women Tackle Sarbanes-Oxley. Eight seasoned Wall Street executives are helping to clean up corporate boards before this year’s Sarbanes-Oxley deadline. Will Fastow, Kozlowski, Enron and white-collar criminals become oh so 2001? by iSophia CEO, Natalie Wynne Pace.
  • Behind Closed Doors: Kay Koplovitz, a veteran Wall Street board member reveals the secrets of the boardroom, and why she’s working so hard to get women in the game.
  • How to Get a Book Deal. Forget about advise from self-published authors. Here’s the real deal from a high-powered editor who finds unknowns and brings their writing to the world. Meet Dan Halpern, the editorial director of HarperCollins’ imprint, Ecco.
  • Politics and Your Portfolio: What the Past Says About This Presidential Election Year by Paul Woods. Pwoods@OdysseyAdvisors.com. 310.568.4710.
  • GIRL’S GUIDE to STOCK BUYING: NEVER PAY RETAIL!!
  • Spoil Yourself Splurges. After three years of scrimping, eating in, and pulling forgotten finds out of the back of your closet because you couldn’t afford a shopping spree, it’s time to indulge!! Celebrate the return of the economy!
  • Money’s Not Everything, but it Can Save the Life of an Inner City Student. by Mark Eckhardt, the founder of be Music Foundation, a non profit organization that grants music scholarships to needy students.
  • The Zone: Put Your Time On a Diet. Reduce the waste in your schedule, and watch how joy time expands! By Melanie Strick.
  • Quotable News: Quotable sound bytes from the experts on inflation, the airline industry, 2004, Asia and more…
  • Stock Report Card: Everyone’s got a cell phone these days, which provider do you want to own? AT&T Wireless (up for bid!), Verizon Wireless, Cingular, Sprint PCS, Nextel, China Mobile, and more! It’s an exploding market, but is the Price Right?
  • Calendar: Galas, networking, benefits, seminars and special opportunities! Check out what’s happening online at the Calendar section of the web site.
  • Companies in the News… News highlights, as reported by the most respected sources in the world. Alphabetized for easy reference.
  • Correction to ezine 44, Opsware article: Procter & Gamble & Altria are not Opsware users yet, though Hewlett-Packard does have intentions to offer Opsware software to these HP clients.

Beauty & The Board Room: 8 Wall Street Women Tackle Sarbanes-Oxley.

Eight seasoned Wall Street executives are helping to clean up corporate boards before this year's Sarbanes-Oxley deadline. Will Fastow, Kozlowski, Enron and white-collar criminals become oh so 2001?

by iSophia CEO, Natalie Wynne Pace

Clockwise from rear: Christie Hefner, Kay Koplovitz, Michele L. Hooper, Dr. Marilyn Seymann, Gwendolyn S. King, Karen Horn, Vilma Martinez and Jane Evans www.DirectorsCouncil.com

Photo credit: Arthur A. Holeman

t all started officially fifteen days ago, on January 15, 2004, when the Sarbanes-Oxley requirements kicked in. Boards are required to have a majority of independent directors, 100% independent directors on the audit committee and full disclosure available to the public on how the standards of independence were established. The drop-dead compliance deadline varies by company, according to when their annual shareholder's meeting occurs, but is no later than October 31, 2004. Companies that do not comply with the new standards will be notified, according to a spokesperson at the New York Stock Exchange, and given a chance to quickly add the requisite new board members (a relative term in giant corporations that are not necessarily known for hare-like adaptability to change). The ultimate punishment for noncompliance is delisting.

Will there be a corporate graveyard on Wall Street just in time for Halloween?
Humm. So, how many companies need to change a few board seats? While a NASDAQ spokesperson was confident that their standards were quite good even before the Sarbanes-Oxley and that most of their companies are already in compliance, Kay Koplovitz, one of the founders of the Director's Council, estimates that 77% of the public companies do not meet Sarbanes-Oxley requirements. A spokesperson for the New York Stock Exchange wouldn't comment on how many of their corporations would have to make changes to meet the requirements, but a peek at the NYSE Final Corporate Governance Listing Standards, and the laundry list of detailed definitions of directors who wouldn't qualify as independent would indicate that a NYSE legal mind has drawn upon a few real world scenarios to inform their ruling. (Detailed definitions include directors who are executives of other companies where present company board members serve on the compensation company, directors who are relatives of executives, etc.) While Ms. Koplovitz's 77% claim of noncompliance can't be confirmed and might be high, certainly changes are brewing, and smart companies, reportedly AT&T Wireless, KB Homes and Time Warner to name three, are acting now to begin the arduous process of identifying, interviewing and conducting due diligence on qualified new blood for the boardroom.

Though spokespersons for Time Warner, AT&T Wireless and KB Homes would not comment on ÒboardÓ matters, they had plenty to say about the vision of the Director's Council and their commitment to adding diversity to their board. Tricia Primrose, Time Warner's Vice President of Corporate Communications, wrote (in an email), ÒTime Warner's nominating and governance committee and Company management are very interested in increasing the diversity, including gender diversity, on our board.Ó KB Homes, who recently lost board member Jane Evans to an untimely death, was an early supporter of Ms. Evans' efforts to reform the boardroom. "Jane Evans brought so many valuable contributions to KB Home during her years on our Board of Directors. It is gratifying to see her vision for the Director's Council come to fruition," writes KB Home Chairman and CEO Bruce Karatz.

Board Searches Can Take Up To a Year, Especially in Today's Climate
Whereas in the past, most boardroom searches were conducted on the golf course, "Friends don't let friends serve on boards," according to a veteran board member, who prefers to remain anonymous. The pay is low. The demands are high. And for the last three years, with the Feds forensically examining everyone's books and emails, Wall Street just hasn't been any fun. According to the Director's Council, which opened doors in October 2003 to help with the crisis, 15% of sitting directors of U.S. public companies will relinquish their seats over the next year - three times the normal turnover rate. But, if friends don't let friends serve on boards, who is going to fill the seats?

Not only are traditional board members getting board shy, but also, with the governance responsibilities shifting from the CEO to the board committees, most corporations are moving to limit the amount of boards that their executives can serve on, putting fewer candidates in the available pool. Sitting CEOs, who were the prime targets in the past, are being limited by their boards to serve on a maximum of one or two outside boards. If your buddy's bandwidth is jammed, where do you go? Which foolhardy firms, late to address the requirements, will make headlines just in time for the Presidential debates? (Start your office pools now!)

New Blood in The Board Room
New blood is needed in the board room, and not simply because Andrew Fastow and Sam Waksal are behind bars, Martha Stewart is no longer cooking up profits and board members are fleeing perceived liabilities when their term expires. It's no secret that boards are still largely made up of rich, white men. What is surprising is just how low the representation of women and minorities on boards continues to be. 49% of employees are women (Families and Work Institute 2002 statistic). Minorities comprise nearly 20% of all Americans (July, 2002 Census). 47% of all shareholders are women (UBS PaineWebber). Meanwhile, only 13.9% of board seats on Fortune 1000 companies are occupied by women, and minorities fill less than 7% of board seats, according to the Director's Council. "Clearly the existing boards are NOT reflecting their stakeholders, employees, shareholders or the general population," says the Director's Council founder, Kay Koplovitz.

Finding people who are not only well qualified and independent, but also have the interpersonal skills and leadership qualities necessary to be highly effective board members is a critical, specialized task, which is where the Directors' Council steps in. Ira Millstein, Senior Partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges, said: "The Directors Council is an idea whose time has come. Indeed it's overdue. This is not a search firm devoted to the old fashioned notion that we must have "one" on the Board." Though the primary focus is getting under sourced, underrepresented people (women and minorities) in the boardroom, the Director's Council is committed to finding the best candidate for the job. Boards light on marketing talent are presented with candidates strong in that skill.

So, which rocks are the Director's Council turning over to find fresh blood? Mostly existing board members, women who are already serving but aren't yet maxed out. However, the corporation also prides themselves on "mentoring" new executive board candidates. "Our guidance doesn't end at the placement process, which has been true in the past," Ms. Koplovitz points out. "We want our board members to be successful on the boards for which they serve." In fact, The Director's Council is also developing a training tape to be marketed to corporations that will assist board members with managing, understanding and incorporating the new rules and responsibilities of Sarbanes-Oxley.

The founders of the Director's Council are certainly in a position to mentor. These are Wall Street women who have had a seat at the board table for decades. Kay Koplovitz founded USA Networks, which, through many transitions, has now become Barry Diller's InterActive Corp. Jane Evans* was a former board member of Altria, Georgia-Pacific, KB Home, PetsMart, the Equitable and the LPGA. Playboy's CEO Christie Hefner has run Hef's company for decades, and Vilma S. Martinez is the Former President and General Counsel of the Mexican-American Legal Defense Fund.

According to Ms. Koplovitz, since October when the Director's Council launched, the phones have been ringing off the hook. With October 31, 2004 lurking on the other side of the summer doldrums, that ringing is likely to become a cacophony. Corporations interested in getting a jump on the independent director requirements before the drop-dead deadline of October 31, 2004, may wish to contact the Director's Council now at 602-957-7479 or online at www.DirectorsCouncil.com. For more information on the listing requirements for NASDAQ and NYSE, click on the following links.

http://www.nasdaq.com/about/RecentRules.stm#boards (NASDAQ's Bulletin to Issuers)

http://www.nyse.com/p1021232175378.html?displayPage=http%3A%2F%2Fgoogle.
nyse.com%2Fsearch%3Fsite%3Dnyse%26output%3Dxml_no_dtd%26client%3Dnyse
%26proxystylesheet%3Dnyse%26filter%3D0%26restrict%3D%26getfields%3Ddescription&q=corporate%20governance
(NYSE's Final Corporate Governance Listing Standards)

*Sadly, Jane Evans, one of the founders of the Director's Council, passed away in 2003.


Behind Closed Doors:

Kay Koplovitz Founder, USA Networks
Principal, Koplovitz & Company
Entrepreneur and author of Bold Women, Big Ideas (May 2002)

Kay Koplovitz, a veteran Wall Street board member reveals the secrets of the boardroom, and why she's working so hard to get women in the game. Interview

by iSophia CEO, Natalie Pace, in the New York Offices of Broadway Television Networks.

iSophia--Take us Behind Closed Doors. Who is sitting on the board?

KayÑOnly 13.9% of the board seats of public boards, Fortune 1000 companies, are occupied by women. 7% are occupied by minorities. That gives you a view of the diversity level of the boards. 16% of high-level, senior and above positions inside public corporations are held by women, while 50% of the employees are women. 48% of the shareholders are women. So, clearly the existing boards are NOT reflecting their stakeholders, employees, shareholders or the general population.

(iSophia note: Our statistics, from the Census Bureau and other independent organizations support Kay's numbers. See the above article for details.)

iSophiaÑBut where are corporations going to find qualified candidates? The statistics make it seem like most minority and female high-ranking executives are already serving on a board.

Kay--Our focus is on expanding the pool of independent, qualified directors. We're not excluding white males from our pool, but we are emphasizing women and minorities because they are under sourced and underrepresented. We have a very strong pool of women and minorities to offer to corporate boards. We've been proactive in sourcing candidates from fertile soil--women and minorities who currently serve on at least one board.

iSophiaÑIs board recruiting a new phenomenon?

Kay-- In the past, fewer than 20% have been sourced through professionals. Over 80% were sourced through an internal process. People on boards recommended people on boards. That's no longer appropriate in today's environment to only source that way. Corporations, both public and private, will be looking to professionally source candidates, beyond their circle of acquaintances and friends, to search out the best-qualified person. The independent requirements under Sarbanes-Oxley mandate that the major committees, like audit, compensation and governance, be filled by totally independent members. 77% of the public companies do not meet this requirement.

(iSophia note: Neither NASDAQ or the NYSE would provide statistics on how many companies were not in compliance. NASDAQ felt confident that most of their companies were in good standing. The NYSE did not venture any opinion, but said they would be monitoring the requirements and notifying companies who were out of compliance.)

iSophiaÑWhat's the deadline for compliance? Are your phones ringing off the hook?

Kay--The corporations must comply by October 31, 2004. Smaller companies have an extended period. The projections for 2004 are that three times as many board seats will be vacated and need to be filled than have been in previous years.

iSophiaÑWith Andrew Fastow receiving ten years, Sam Waksal in prison and Martha Stewart fighting for her freedom, is it true that "friends don't allow friends to serve on boards?"

Kay--It will be an evolutionary process. Both corporations and candidates are being cautious and doing more due diligence because of perceived liabilities, and the amount of time required to serve on the board to meet the independent committee requirements. If you're a CEO, COO, CFO, or a senior corporate executive looking to serve on boards, you're no longer saying, "I'm going to serve on three to four boards." It's not possible. Corporations are looking to limit outside board service to one to two. Sitting CEOs, who were the prime targets in the past, are being limited by their boards. People who are inside the boards today are stepping down from selective boards because of the time and work requirements. Even companies who have filled independent seats are looking forward to the following years for board members who may be retiring. People are starting to look a year or two ahead.

iSophiaÑWomen make up 49 % of the US labor force. Minorities comprise nearly 20 % of Americans. Why aren't there more women and minorities on boards? After all, this is 2004.

Kay--80% of board searches are currently conducted by informal, word-of-mouth networking. Women and minority executives are rarely found in the established circles from which directors are typically recruited, so they are often overlooked by boards despite having the appropriate qualifications, talent and interest in serving.

iSophiaÑAre minorities and women coming in at a time when the greater responsibilities, time commitments, limitations, regulations and personal liability just don't justify the small bit of compensation and stock that board members receive?

Kay--There is the opening for personal liability, however corporations do carry D&O [Directors and Officers] insurance and do look at the D&O insurance levels seriously. All insurance costs have gone up since 9.11. There always has been the opportunity for liability, it's just been highlighted in this era of corporate malfeasance. Boards did not exercise the proper oversight. There has been a subtle shift from the CEO's office to the Board, and the board members now, as clearly stated in Sarbanes-Oxley, have the governing responsibility for a variety of functions that the corporation undertakes--to clearly understand how revenues and profits are being booked, to delve much deeper into the financial veracity of the reports, to adhere to the rules, risk assessment and succession planning. In the recent past, the CEO had a lot of control over these areas. Many boards conceded control. That's no longer a defense. It is our expectation that the people responsible on corporate boards will exercise their responsibilities with greater attention and caution, and understand the responsibility that comes with sitting on the board. Board members will know how the companies function, understand the business models and plan for the future. They won't be managers at all, but will really understand what makes that company tick, what challenges it has to growth, how they will meet those challenges, and to ensure that the highest ethical standards are adhered to.

iSophiaÑ Ira Millstein, Senior Partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges, said: "The Directors Council is an idea whose time has come. Indeed it's overdue. This is not a search firm devoted to the old fashioned notion that we must have "one" on the Board." Are your candidates being received as qualified individuals, or as token representatives of diversity?

KayÑ There is true value of having other CEOs serve on your board. You also have to have independent board members who are not suppliers, who are not servicing the company through their corporations in any way and truly have the shareholder in mind. You see the same thing in mutual funds. It's not just the corporations. Part of our focus is to mentor new candidates. Our guidance doesn't end at the placement process, which has been true in the past. We want our board members to be successful on the boards which they serve.

iSophiaÑOne of the first companies that contacted you was AT&T Wireless. Can you tell a little bit about that process?

Kay--AT&T Wireless said they wanted a minority female on their board. "What other qualifications are you looking for?" we asked. We wanted to see if they were missing strengths that we thought they needed. When we looked at the board, to us there was a glaring hole for someone with a consumer marketing background. We decided to put forth minority female candidates with a strong marketing background. Five of the ten candidates had extremely strong marketing backgrounds. Five had board experience, and five would be first timers. AT&T Wireless said it was the strongest slate they've ever been presented with. In fact, they're looking at giving us the 2nd board seat. The board members on that board belong to other boards. The good experience is being carried from that board to other boards. We announced this company on October 20, 2004, and it is already spreading that way. We're only three months out of the box. It's early, but we're pleased with the progress.

(iSophia note: An AT&T Wireless spokesperson would not comment on board matters, and it should be noted that the Director's Council candidates are probably not the only board candidates being considered by AT&T Wireless.)

iSophiaÑTell us a little about the founders of the Director's Council, and their qualifications for providing ongoing guidance to some of the new blood that you are bringing into the board room.

Kay--We are all experienced Fortune 500 board members, and sitting or former CEOs or presidents of companies. We have been on both sides of the table. We have our seats at the table. We are members of the corporate board club. Several members speak and write on this subject and have for a number of years. Our experience and level is unequaled in the search business. We have members who represent diversity among our group, in ethnic backgrounds, but we also have diversity in industry experience and geographic location. Karen Horn is in banking. Gwen King, from Washington DC, is from the energy sector. Christie Hefner is the sitting CEO of Playboy in Chicago, from the media business, like myself. Marilyn Seymann, in Phoenix, is from the banking business. She also has been the dean of ASU business school, teaches on this subject and has course curriculum that we will be offering later this year to organizations for their senior executives, whom they would like to have serve on corporate boards, to introduce them to the process. Vilma Martinez is a highly regarded lawyer. She was the head of the Mexican Legal Defense Fund. Unfortunately, Jane Evans died. Jane and I started this last spring. Jane was the spirit of what we're doing. She was loved by many people in a lot of different industries, and all of us feel very strongly about carrying that spirit on.

iSophiaÑIn today's environment, give us one good reason to be on a board.

Kay-- The purpose of being on a board is not about the compensation or the money, even though compensation has gone up. It has to. The amount of time it takes! But, it's the governing process that helps executives expand their knowledge base. Let's say they have a financial background. The expansion of the other responsibilities of the board are also very helpful to an executive for learning a governance process. When this process is more inclusionary of people from various backgrounds, ethnic and skill bases, it will strengthen the organizations for the shareholders that they serve. For people who are retired out of the corporate environment, but have a lot of experience, it's a good way of using that experience. Most people are going in expecting to gain the network of the board governance process, more than the financial consideration. For the time and effort, the money cannot possibly be commensurate.

iSophiaÑSpeaking of retirement, with the controversy going on with Disney's board, and Roy Disney's forced retirement, what is your opinion on mandatory age requirements for boards?

Kay--I think mandatory age limits are up to the corporations. I personally don't believe that mandatory age limits are as important as length of service. I sit on a board with a man who is beyond any age limits that I've ever seen, and he's one of the most important board members. There are 72 year-olds who are 30, and 72 year-olds who are 110. My mom is 90 and she's up on the roof putting up holiday decorations. I do think that board members ought to rotate off of boards after a certain number of years of service. The board needs to have new board members in order to keep fresh. It is up to the corporations and boards to see that there is a flow.


How to Get a Book Deal.

Forget about advise from self-published authors. Here's the real deal from a high-powered editor who finds unknowns and brings their writing to the world. Meet Dan Halpern, the editorial director of HarperCollins' imprint, Ecco.

aniel Halpern was born in Syracuse, New York, and has lived in Los Angeles, Seattle, New York City, and Tangier, Morocco.  He is the author of nine collections of poetry, most recently Something Shining (Knopf, 1999), Selected Poems (Knopf, 1994), and Foreign Neon (Knopf, 1991); editor of numerous anthologies, including The Art of the Tale (Penguin, 1987) and The Art of the Story (Penguin, 2000), and two food books, Halpern's Guide to the Essential Restaurants of Italy and The Good Food:  Soups, Stews & Pastas. Mr. Halpern has received numerous grants and awards, including fellowships from the Guggenheim Foundation and the National Endowment for the Arts, as well as the 1993 PEN Publisher Citation.  For twenty-five years he edited the international literary magazine Antaeus, which he founded in Tangier, Morocco with Paul Bowles.  From 1975 to 1995 he taught in the graduate writing program of Columbia University, which he chaired for many years. He has also taught at The New School for Social Research and the creative writing program at Princeton University.  He is now Editorial Director of ECCO, An Imprint of HarperCollins Publishers, and lives in New York and Princeton, New Jersey, with his wife the writer Jeanne Wilmot and daughter Lily.

Dan Halpern is an inquisitive, passionate man, who actively seeks the stories of strangers, found in obscure moments. At a restaurant over dinner, his eyes drift to three girlfriends meeting for dinner, who hug and gush and give gifts before taking their seats. "Women are just better than men, aren't they?" he says, with a trace of longing. Perhaps he's disappointed that the food isn't palatable enough. Food, as writing, must be prepared well in order to be delicious, substantive and surprising, each ingredient carefully considered and added only in the right amount.

Dan hands over a book that Ecco recently published, entitled Lucky Girls, Nell Freudenberger's debut collection of short stories, which Don Lee of Ploughshares calls "a remarkable collection." "It seems impossible that a writer of Freudenberger's youth could know so much about the world," Lee writes. Knowing Dan as I have for over ten years, what isn't surprising is that he would be the one to discover and believe in Nell's talent. He is won over by the writer who quite simply writes well, and he walks the pavements of the many cities that he finds himself in, to be sure that he is in a position to hear new voices. I couldn't put Nell's book down all weekend. She is an extraordinary young talent.

So you want to be a best-selling author. Better listen now to what I sayÉ Apply your seat to the chair religiously every day, write, edit, write, edit, write, editÉ

-----


iSophiaÑNow that JK Rowling proves the rags to riches story, everyone wants to write the next bestseller. So how much money has Harry Potter's new book made?

Dan-- It's massive. A book outselling movies on a big weekend! That got everybody's attention. I don't believe it's ever happened, ever. No book has ever sold like that. I'm sure that sales will be in a league of their own.

[iSophia note: According to the BBC (11.17.2003), The Order of the Phoenix sold 1.78 million copies in the UK ALONE on the first day. Worldwide sales of all five Harry Potter Books have exceeded 250 million. JK Rowling is the world's best paid author, earning 125 million pounds in 2003.]

iSophiaÑThe quote on everyone's lips is that JK. Rowling, a former struggling single mom, is richer than the Queen.

Dan--Well, now. I don't know if that's saying that much. Rowling owns her own money. Does the queen have her own money if she leaves? The queen has a job description and Rowling doesn't. She can never write another book. She can never do another thing if she wants to. The queen has to show up to functions in her royal finery. I'm not a loyalist or a royalist.

iSophia--Are you always on the lookout for the next J.K. Rowling? Can you just smell that kind of success when the manuscript hits your desk?

Dan--That book was turned down by everyone. Nobody could have possibly known that it would have that kind of success. It was too long. It was too complicated. It was too violent. Twenty things on the checklist for a successful book didn't work. It violated all of the conventional wisdom and went on to be the most successful publishing venture of all time.

iSophia--From an insider's perspective, what made her book so much more successful than other popular books, like Artemis Fowl?

Dan--Artemis Fowl is not anywhere close to Harry Potter. Liminy Snicket doesn't sell the same way that Harry Potter does, but he sells over a million copies of every book. You gotta go get one. It's one of the great packages of all time. He's very funny. Again, he violates all of the rules. When I met him, I asked him to sign a copy for my daughter, who loves Lemony Snicket. He signed Lily's book, writing, "And I hope one day you'll be an orphan, too." I cut it out. I told him that I did that. His first book did all right. His 2nd book did all right. His 3rd and 4th book skyrocketed. A million copies. Those kinds of numbers are very rare. This is a guy who didn't set out to write kids' books. He's a genius in this area. He's written 11 of these books. Every fall, a new one comes out. That must be the closest to Harry Potter's success, more than Artemis Fowl.

iSophia--Has Harry Potter rejuvenated the book world? Do other books, like Hillary's new book or the Sadaam Hussein book that HarperCollins recently released, turn in comparable, if lesser known, numbers, simply as a result of more buyers browsing in the bookstores?

Dan--That was the hope, the great hope, that with Harry Potter and Hillary's book, that was going to regenerate all this interest in book publishing. People waited outside to buy Harry Potter. The fanaticism over getting the first copies of this book was truly amazing. I stood outside for 20 minutes or so. Everybody who came out was carrying three or four copies of Harry Potter. This notion of going in and buying something else was unreasonable thinking. It's been a very difficult period. Sales have been not very exiting. But that's always good if you get people into the bookstore. You have more chance of selling a book if they're in there, than if they're not in there.

iSophia--Is the book industry hurting as much as the rest of American business? Have there been a lot of layoffs, and how has this affected your industry?

Dan--There have been some layoffs, in some houses more than other. I'm happy to say that HarperCollins has had no layoffs. It's psychologically important. Having that uncertainty to hear that ten of your best friends were fired or laid off. (Dan cringes.) HarperCollins has made people feel good about what they do, about the company and about the people who are running it. When other houses were laying people off, all of the housekeeping was done correctly at HarperCollins. They had planned ahead. In a bad market, we did very well. That's always the indication of a strong company, when it is a bad market, there are ways not to go belly-up.

iSophia --And that says something about News Corp. and Rupert MurdochÉ.

Dan--It says something about whom News Corp. chose to run the company. Jane Friedman turned the company around completely. The company was destined for no good end for five years. She made a great hire in publisher, Cathy Hemming, President and Publisher of the HarperCollins General Books Group. The two of them have made HarperCollins the most viable publisher for many authors. Where we were looking for authors, we're now selecting authors. Everybody wants to be at HarperCollins.

(iSophia note: Look for an exclusive interview with Jane Friedman in the next iSophia e-zine.)

iSophia --Is there a particular kind of book that editors are keen on right now? Memoirs were all the rage a few years back. What's hot now?

Dan--Memoirs have hung on. Again the accepted wisdom was that memoirs were done. Katherine Harris was supposed to be the end. I haven't noticed that they're falling off. People are buying them like crazy. I think it's a great genre. Memoir approaches fiction in a lot of ways. The beauty of memoir [is that] someone is telling you, "This is what happened." It may not have happened, unless it's historical memoir and others are looking on. It's a pleasure reading about somebody else's happiness and unhappiness. I think it's a great genre.

iSophia --For the unpublished author, what's the best channel for getting a high profile editor's attention?

Dan--Well, I think now, given the amount of stuff that's out there, you need to have a good agent. Talk to people. Who the agents are really matters. There are a handful of agents who get the complete attention of every editor in New York City. They are others who don't. I think you need to talk to friends and writers, people in the business, who will give you two to three names.

iSophia--What are you working on now?

Dan--My vacation. Frankfurt. I'll go to Budapest to see an author whom we're publishing. And I'll come back through Paris to meet my wife and daughter, and have a couple of important meals.

iSophiaÑLet's talk about timing. Do you really have to time a book two years out?

Dan--People take a couple of years to write a book. When they turn that book in, it's almost always late. If you're writing a book about Bin Laden or Saddam Hussein, who knows what that will mean in 2005 or 2006. It's hard to gauge all this stuff. What's in right now? A novel about Liberia would be a very big book. It's important to keep in mind that if you finish a book January 2004, that book isn't coming out before January 2005. Generally, you want to leave yourself ten months to a year to produce a book, especially a complicated book.

iSophia --What kind of prescience can you take credit for in the timing of the book deal, the writing, the editing and publication of HarperCollins' Saddam Hussein book, that came out right before the war?

(Saddam: King of Terror by Con Coughlin. Coughlin, a reporter for the London Daily Telegraph, draws on interviews from key figures in Iraq to outline how Saddam Hussein was able to control the oil-rich nation for so long and why he was so widely supported among its people. Click here to order from Overstock.com at $15.49.)

Dan--You know that was very lucky. One, we had an author who is a terrific journalist and was used to meeting deadlines, unlike many writers that I know. (Dan squeezes a look at me. This time, I'm the one who cringes.) He said he thought we would go into Iraq in February 2003. He was off by a month. My thought was to publish the book in October. If everybody knows we're going to war, nobody will let the books return. We can have the books in the stores, and keep them there until we go to war. The books stayed in the stores selling throughout that period. The guy was able to go on all of the television programs, thanks to our publicist, Justin Loeber. On the Today Show, Katie Couric fell in love with him. He's got a polished television personality. Con Coughlin is the kind of Brit who says it like it is. He's clearly got the goods. He's clearly enjoying himself, blowing the whistle on Saddam and his group. He had a great time doing that book, and doing the publicity for it.

iSophia -Let's give some aspiring writers advise on titles. So many writers get hung up on the title before they even start writing the first word!! We get calls from people obsessing about copyrighting or trade-marking their titles, but with hundreds of books with the SAME title, is it even possible to copyright the title?

DanÑI don't think you can copyright a title, but you should check with a publishing lawyer to be sure. As for trademark, that might be different.

iSophia -Do authors get to title their own books, or is that the decision of the editors and the publishing house?

DanÑEditors with authors make this decision, with input from marketing and sales.

iSophia --Finally, as a writer and a top editor, is there a good bit of advice that you can give to aspiring writers?

DanÑI hate this kind of question!

iSophia -Sorry. But aspiring writers want to know! (And who isn't aspiring to write their own bestseller!)

DanÑWrite a good book and take your time with it. Make sure the first book is the best book you can execute. Get a good agent. Get a good editor at a publishing house that you respect. The first book is critical because it establishes your track record, which goes with you when you sell your second and third books. Have one or two "outside" readers you trust, who will give you honest feedback.

Whew. Next ezine, we'll glean the coffers for advise on writing from well-known writers. Tune in for that, as well as an interview with the Goddess of the Book World, the turnaround specialist of the printed word, the Chairman and CEO of HarperCollins, Jane Friedman.


Politics and Your Portfolio:

What the Past Says About This Presidential Election Year.

by Paul Woods. Pwoods@OdysseyAdvisors.com. 310.568.4710

n addition to returns in the stock market showing a distinct seasonal pattern with higher returns in the winter and lower returns in the summer, there also appears to be a longer 4-year cycle of returns tied to presidential elections. The data we used were historic total returns for the S&P 500 Index going back to 1928. We realize that Congress outlawed depressions after the last one in the 1930's and we haven't had an official war in decades. Because of this, we also checked the data from 1950 to present as a result, but didn't find significant differences.

We are still dealing with a fairly limited amount of data, so we didn't parse it any further and look at periods that reelected an incumbent or periods where a different political party gained power. Following are total annual returns (dividends and change in price) for the S&P 500 Index from 1928 through 2002. If this is broken down into four-year periods, we get the following:

S&P 500 Index Average Total Returns 1928-2002

1 Year Before Presidential Election

19.69%

Year of Presidential Election

13.52%

1 Year After Presidential Election

7.45%

2 Years After Presidential Election

8.65%

Overall Average

12.28%

It's not too hard to see a pattern. Returns in the S&P 500 tend to be below average in the two years after an election. Returns in the year before an election are several times higher than in the year after an election.

Keep in mind that these numbers are averages. It's not difficult to lose money in the stock market before an election, and it's also not unusual to make a lot of money in the market after an election. However, if we look at average returns for each year in the cycle and the standard deviation of those returns, we can use probability tables to calculate likelihood of a negative return. The results are as follows:

Probability of a Negative Annual Return

1 Year Before Presidential Election

15.16%

Year of Presidential Election

17.37%

1 Year After Presidential Election

37.07%

2 Years After Presidential Election

34.46%

Overall Average

27.10%

The best way to understand the above table is to think in terms of how often we have negative annual returns in the stock market. If, over time, the stock market declines once in every four years, the probability of a decline in any given year would be 25%. A 34.46% probability means that the stock market will decline just a bit more often than every three, etc. Based upon historical information, the chances of losing money in the stock are more than twice as high in the two years after a national election.

Before we go into possible explanations for the apparent difference in returns before and after Presidential elections, we need to keep in mind that the stock market is a component of the Index of Leading Indicators for the U.S. economy. Although it's a far from perfect predictor of the U.S. economy, stock prices are based upon future expectations and the market will react to things that change the outlook for earnings or valuations.

The Federal Reserve has the ability push a few buttons and get the attention of investors. Two of the most important are their ability to set the short-term cost of bank borrowing and the ability to change the amount of money in circulation. Both have an impact on valuations in the stock market and ultimately on corporate profits.

The problem is that there's a long lead-time between changes in interest rates or money supply growth and changes in the economy. It can take up to two years for any changes in either of these to have an impact on the economy. However, both of these usually have a more immediate impact upon valuations in the stock market. Declining interest rates and increasing money supply growth usually produce higher valuations in the stock market and vice versa.

Even though the Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is nominated by the President and confirmed by Congress every 7 years. Since Fed Chairmen tend to like their jobs and seek reappointments, there's a powerful incentive not to annoy the boss with a lousy economy when he's seeking reelection. They usually do a good job of pushing the right buttons to get the economy moving in time for an election. Any excesses that build up can always be fixed afterward. From the return data, investors appear to have noticed this pattern.


GIRL’S GUIDE to STOCK BUYING: NEVER PAY RETAIL!!

ust like it pays to shop AFTER Christmas (I just picked up three HARD COVER BOOKS at Borders for under $15 BUCKS!!), there are definitely SEASONAL TIMES to buy stocks on sale (and times to take your profits). In the December 1, 2004 iSophia e-zine, Paul Woods, a seasoned money manager and regular iSophia contributor, put together a chart that goes back 30 years. That chart very clearly shows January to be the most profitable stock market month of the year BY FAR. But, how do you USE that information for gain? (We're not advocating that you jump in and out of the market, but knowing seasonal trends can inform your profit-taking and when to add more to your portfolio, just as knowing when the shoe sale occurs might inform when you add a few extra designer pumps to your wardrobe.)

What that means for the BUY LOW, SELL HIGH stock investor is that, in general, based upon statistics and history, January is your PROFIT TAKING month, not your stock-buying month, unless you're really into PAYING RETAIL (buying high). (There are seasons for real estate too, which we'll discuss in another article.) Likewise, the lowest time of the year in the markets, July through October, are the times when, historically, stocks go on sale. Bottom line! The bargain-shopping babe might consider doing her research now, might take some of her gains off the table now and allow her hard-working money to get a little rest until the summer doldrums, when stocks typically go back on saleÉ We're not advocating driving yourself to drink trying to time the markets, but if you've doubled your money or made a tidy profit in the last fourteen months, you might want to lock in some of your profits by taking some of your chips off of the table (a little profit-taking never hurt anyone). And if you're tempted to buy right back in, you might consider waiting for the seasonal sales!

See below for seasonal returns in the markets, based upon data gathered by Odyssey Advisors over the last 32 years (March 1971 through October 2003).

Period

S&P 500

NASDAQ

November - January

1.88%

2.53%

November - June

1.39%

1.52%

July - October

0.21%

-0.13%

Full Year

1.00%

0.97%

"In a nutshell, July through October is usually the worst time of the year to own stocks. The golden period in the stock market usually starts in November and ends after January, but returns usually remain positive through June." Paul Woods, "Tis the Season For the Santa Rally," 12.1.04. CLICK HERE to check out the entire article!!

Now, as Paul points out in his article "Tis the Season," you don't want to get too fancy with your short-term buying and selling, and certainly not before you fully understand the tax ramifications of short term capital gains. (See issue #44 for a Girl's Guide to Taxes article, if you don't know the difference between short term and long-term cap gains.) Additionally, last year was a great year to let your profits RIDE, as the markets barreled right through the summer doldrums, and the bewitching October to post outstanding year-end gains. NASDAQ posted positive 2003 gains of +50.04% (on the NASDAQ Composite Index) while the NYSE came in at +27.74% (on both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index). The truth is that no one has a crystal ball. You can buy into a great company at the wrong time and lose money. You can buy into a crappy company at the right time and make money.

Because last year was such an amazing year for market returns, if you choose to sell off some of your shares this month, you'll likely have an entire chorus of friends screaming that you are nuts to take profits in a year that is poised for economic recovery!! (Contrarian investors LOVE to hear everyone calling them nuts.) Here is where you might want to remember the adage that basing THIS year's decisions on LAST YEAR's information is like driving by looking through a rear view mirror. Yes, last year, the market's BARRELLED through the summer doldrums, posting gains not seen sinceÉ well, 1999, which was another PRE-ELECTION YEAR. Can you guess what the last year was that saw a continual drive from January to December, with very little down turns? You got itÉ 1995, another PRE-ELECTION YEAR. Unfortunately, as Paul Woods mentions in this month's feature article, ELECTION YEARS are far less reliable for the bulls. (Be sure to read his excellent article above, if you haven't already.)

When in doubt, if you're in a position of profit, there's nothing wrong with taking a few chips off of the table. Gains are good, and there is a difference between investing with money you can afford to lose and placing a "Hail Mary" bet with a dollar amount that would bankrupt you (emotionally or financially). It's not a bad idea to test your risk tolerance with this question. How much am I willing to bet (and/or lose) on this company?

Remember Cash is King. At least some of your hard-working money can afford to rest at times. If there is a terrorist attack, or another corporate scandal or a big bankruptcy, or any other market force that would send stock prices plunging, you are in a position, with your liquidity, to again buy low. (Liquidity is also an important part of portfolio diversification.) Those who take their PROFITS BEFORE disasters, and have the liquidity, will then have the last laugh, although it's pretty rotten (and probably dangerous) to laugh at your friends who are panicked and distraught--those who didn't plan ahead and properly examine just how much they were willing to risk. And yes, friends, stocks are risky investments. The only investment that has no risk is cash, and as my grandmother would say, even that isn't risk free. There are always fires, floods, theft, etc., that can burn up those bills hiding under the mattress.

Being an informed, educated investor, at least initially, may seem about as appealing as waxing and as difficult as quantum theory. Who has the time? But you'll enjoy the results of smooth profits just as much as you do that silky smooth skin, and, once you learn a few formulas, the numbers of investing really aren't so difficultÉ Especially when you following the algebraic formula of shoppingÑNEVER PAY RETAIL!


Spoil Yourself Splurges.

After three years of scrimping, eating in, and pulling forgotten finds out of the back of your closet because you couldn't afford a shopping spree, it's time to indulge!! Celebrate the return of the economy!

  1. Norma's: the Best Breakfast on the Planet (New York City). I don't care if you live on an anthill in Zimbabwe. Sell a few blankets and get over to Le Parker Meridien for the best breakfast on the planet. The morning I visited this often-awarded brunch scene, I was tempted to settle for nirvana, the "Light and Lemony" pancakes, which are memorable enough to make me PLAN a trip in NYC just to get my regular fix of them. Victoria Barr, Le Parker Meridien's PR executive, was adamant, however, that I try the house specialty--Waz-za. Norma's doesn't make the decision easy. Everything looks so strange and enticing, and the selections appeal to every side of your fantasy. After swooning over Norma's signature shot of smoothie (using seasonal, fresh fruit), how do you choose the second sensation? Hudson Valley Duck Confit Hash or Banana Macadamia Nut Flap Jacks? Granny Smith Apple and Red Pear Crepes?
  2. It's like having one man walk into your life who cuddles, whips up gourmet meals and plays flute and piano duets with you, and another who salsa dances, throws you over his shoulder and knows the exact spot on your neck that sends chills up your spine. Just how are you supposed to choose between the two? Do you want dessert for breakfast, or something utterly decadent, that you might not be able to stomach in daylight? (err.. we're back to talking about Norma's here.) So, Waz-za is like a crème brulee waffle parfait (Don't ask, just try it, it's the house specialty for good reason) and the Foie Gras French toast is É pretty much the way it sounds, only, surprisingly compatible given its name. The egg bread, asparagus, mushrooms and brown stock are delightful, though quite robustÑdefinitely more for the steak and eggs lover or for the late brunch.

    My business associate and I did something society allows, in food at least. We chose BOTH and then split them in an orgy of decadence not often seen among business associates. (We ate freely off of one another's plate, abandoning all attempts at manners.) Forget about those over-priced breakfast buffets in your five-star hotel, and take a break from the daily NYC bagel. Get over to Norma's on West 57th Street. If you're still in the Parker Meridien neighborhood at lunchtime, you have to try the Burger Joint. No, the Burger Joint doesn't serve salad or anything else besides burgers, fries and ketchup. Don't ask. Yes, you might see a star or two. Norma's at Le Parker Meridien. 118 West 57th Street, NYC, NY 10019-3318. 212.245.5000.

  3. Madama Butterfly at the L.A. Opera. Placido Domingo has put the Los Angeles Opera on the World Stage. If you haven't been yet, there are no excuses now, as the L.A. Opera celebrates the 100th anniversary of Puccini's masterpieceÑMadama Butterfly. (For those of you worried about your Italian, there are English super titles visible from every seat.) Opening night is just in time for Valentine's Day, on February 12, 2004 (7:30 p.m.). The opera runs for just one month, through March 14, 2004. Go to: www.LosAngelesOpera.com to order tickets.
  4. Natura Health Spa. Lose a pound of dead skin and get a massage that will put you on another planet. An hour and a half for under $80. Bye, bye Beverly Hot Springs. Hello Natura! Los Angeles, CA 213.381.2288.
  5. Investor's Boot Camp at the YWCA in Santa Monica, California. February 8, 2004 10 a.m. to noon. Limited to just 30 people. iSophia founder, Natalie Pace, will give up all her investing tricks in a rare, hands-on opportunity to practice the success strategies of billionaires, and learn why the most valuable information for investing is something you already know (and undervalue). Only ten seats left. Call NOW!! 310.452.3881. $20 donation to the YWCA. Hey, financial freedom is a very sexy, spoil yourself splurge. You'll have more fun than you can imagine.


Money’s Not Everything, but it Can Save the Life of an Inner City Student

by Mark Eckhardt, the founder of be Music Foundation, a non profit organization that grants music scholarships to needy students

As the Founder of be Music Foundation, it is not often that I write about my own experience as the head of a nonprofit that grants music scholarships to underserved students in the pursuit of a bachelor's degree.  Typically my job is to function quietly in the background to ensure that the light falls upon a young person whom my actions are intended to serve.  However, every now and then I get a glimpse into the potential of every human being and it is in those moments that I know with certainty that the undesirable conditions that persist in our world can be eliminated.

My inspiration comes from one of be Music Foundation's first scholarship recipients, Michael Sheridan. Three years have passed and he, along with the rest of our freshman troupe, are now juniors facing the tough question of whether or not to go on to grad school, or jump into life outside of college.  Boy has the time passed quickly!

When I first met Michael during his last semester at George Washington Preparatory High School in Inglewood, he was a very shy seventeen year-old, who spoke in almost a whisper of a tone.  I fondly recall straining to hear him speak, only to be blown away by his ability to touch people with his saxophone. I learned very early in my relationship with Michael that his soul was an old soul that spoke through music rather than words. He was special!

Without hesitation, the Board unanimously selected Michael to receive a scholarship, thus setting the stage for our first ever Scholarship Awards. Ceremony.  Everyone was excited to see the culmination of two years of hard work come to fruition; our dreams of making an impact were about to come true.  Then, without notice tragedy struck!

Two days before be Music Foundation's first ever Scholarship Awards Ceremony, Michael's mother died.  Mrs. Sheridan, a single mother, had been disabled for several years and her body just stopped working.  Personally, I questioned how a young man like Michael could survive extreme childhood poverty, life with a severely disabled parent, drugs, gangs, a failing school system, only to see his mother die two days before he is to be honored.  Perhaps Mrs. Sheridan knew Michael, the first family member to be accepted to college, was strong enough to go on without her.  

We were all devastated, as was Michael, and  this was the board's first reality check around the seriousness of our work. [Since then we have been affected by three drive-bys, a teen suicide, two drug overdoses and a homicide/suicide where a father killed his wife and then turned the gun on himself.]  

Yes, Michael easily qualified for our scholarship in terms of talent, grades, recommendations and financial need.  But, what was now apparent was that a commitment to him meant more; this was not just giving scholarships. The stakes had been raised with the death of his mother, and we were now part of his small network of support and what was to be his guiding light.  To be honest, it was frightening, and from my point of view there was no room to fail.  

---

Be Music's commitment to Michael was only beginning, but it would take founder Mark Eckhardt through circumstances that he would never have predicted. In Mark's words, "There's an important message that I want to get across about the responsibility that comes with philanthropy.  Making a difference in the community comes at a price.  That price is bearing the responsible for the outcome of another's life no matter what happens."

Tune in next week to hear more about how Be Music helped Michael through the toughest time of his young life.    If you'd like to make a tax deductible contribution to Mark Eckhardt's non-profit organization, BeMusic, to support Mark's efforts, contact Mark directly below.

 
www.befoundation.org
info: info@befoundation.org
tel.310-445-0017
fax. 310-478-8317
contact: Mark Eckhardt


The Zone: Put Your Time On a Diet.

Reduce the waste in your schedule, and watch how joy time expands!

By Melanie Strick

Melanie Benson Strick www.successconnections.com

"The rule of thumb is that 20% of your effort should give you 80% of your results. If the reverse is true, you are working too hard, which can lead to burn out." Melanie Strick

Mastering The Power Threshold™: How to Make 2004 Your Best Year Yet!
Time. Just when you think you have conquered it, some unanticipated "important" thing pops up, and you feel defeated again. How can the entrepreneur create more of that all too precious commodity -- time? The secret is a simple and powerful strategy. You must create a system to manage and better utilize your time. "Ok, Ok," you say, "I've heard that before. Nothing ever works for me. I still get behind. I can't accomplish everything I have to do - and there is absolutely no time for a personal life!"

I know. I have heard it from the countless entrepreneurs I've coached. I'm going to share with you an easy and vital time management system I've developed to support my clients (and myself!) This system is part of an extensive program I created called The Power Threshold™ - How to Operate in Your Optimum Power Zone.

Step 1. List Your Tasks
Make two lists - one for your business and one for your personal time. For your business, list all of the projects you are working on. Include all of the different roles you perform and all of the tasks you do throughout your week (remember the random ones like buying office supplies, returning calls, etc.) For your personal life, list all of your non-business activities like eating, sleeping, dates, grocery shopping, etc.

Step 2. Account for Your Time
Just as you have to account for every dollar you spend for your taxes, you must account for every hour you spend for your freedom. Next to each role and task you listed in Step 1, give yourself an honest estimate of the amount of time you spend per week for each item (don't forget to figure in commute and preparation time.)

Step 3. Prioritize
Now, prioritize each item on your business list as: "A" - absolutely important for the growth of my business, "B" - important, but not crucial for the growth of my business, "C" - if I'm real honest, this is a waste of my time; the task is redundant, repetitive or ridiculous. Having a coach becomes invaluable on Step 3. Entrepreneurs often believe they have to do it all themselves. A coach can help you see where your vision is not lined up with your actions and therefore, how help you generate more profits, attract more clients and enjoy more time off.

Step 4. Analyze
Add up the total work hours by adding up your A, B, and C tasks. Are you over extended or is there a large differential? Now identify the productivity level of each individual task. For example, if you spend 10 hours a week at networking events and you work 50 hours per week, then 20% of your productivity time is spent networking. What are your networking activities netting you in results? Are you attaining 80% of your clients and revenue from this activity? If not, you may want to rethink this activity. Overall, what do the percentages tell you? How did you fare? Are you spending a majority of your time on B and C tasks - which probably are not generating a high return in clients or revenue? Are you focusing on items that someone else, who gets paid less than you per hour, could do?

Step 5. Take Action
Now that you know where your time is spent you can strategize how you can eliminate, delegate and systemize your B and C level tasks for greater return on your precious resources -your time and well being. In our example above, spending 20% of your time at networking meetings needs to be returning a high % of results (remember the rule of thumb is that 20% of your effort should give you 80% of your results.) If the reverse is true, you are working too hard, which can lead to burn out. This process may need to be tweaked and refined over a period of three to six months for optimum results - give yourself permission to revise until you nail it! You have probably spent years developing your current work style. Allow yourself 30 to 60 days to build new time management habits and implement your new systems.

Just like successful millionaires know where every dollar is spent, the successful entrepreneur knows where every hour is spent. They know how to make their time work for them, rather than against them. Take this step to begin operating in your Power Threshold today!

To obtain a free sample of this tool, email info@successconnections.com with "Time Management Tool" in the subject line with your contact information in the body. Stuck on how to leverage your time more effectively? Email us today at melanie@successconnections.com and set up a complimentary 30-minute session to breakthrough your productivity barriers!

© 2003. Melanie Benson Strick and James Roche, Success Connections. (877) 830-3139 or visit the web at www.SuccessConnections.com. melanie@successconnections.com


Melanie Benson Strick is a performance coach with over 12 years experience in corporate process improvement and high performance team development.  She founded her coaching company, Success Connections, to help individuals and teams align their vision with optimum performance. In her three years of leadership with the International Coaching Federation Los Angeles - where in 2003 Melanie served as president - the non-profit organization grew by 800%.  This August Melanie was named Director of Shared Vision Network Los Angeles, a professional organization for entrepreneurs.  In October she was a featured coach in Female Entrepreneur magazine.  Melanie has a Masters Degree in Organizational Management and is a graduate of Coach University.

 


Quotable News:

Quotable sound bytes from the experts on inflation, the airline industry, 2004, Asia and moreÉ

  1. On Inflation (economists)
    "The near-term great productivity gains will hold prices low in 2004. Money supply exceeding the growth potential in the economy always precedes inflation, not in the near term, but in 2005 and 2006. In 2005, we're going to have a serious problem with inflation and rising interest rates. I'm not worried about it in 2004, but I'm critically worried about it in 2005 and 2006." David Littman, Comerica Bank, speaking on Kudlow & Cramer, 12.30.03.

  2. On Inflation (The Feds)
    "Output is expanding briskly. Although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market. É The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation." Federal Reserve Board, in their release dated 1.28.04
  3. To view the entire release, go to:
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040128/default.htm

  4. On Gold
    "All metal prices are going ballistic, and if they flatten out then you could see the underlying shares go down," Chris Swanepoel, mid-cap mining portfolio manager with J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management in London.

  5. On Gold (Ed Bugos)
    "Goldcorp shares are not weak due to the impact of selling its bullion on the company's fundamentals. They are weak due to its prior overvaluation, and the fact that its key insider disposed of a meaningful stake. Due to its outsized correction (relative to the group), it is worth a nibble on weak days for long-term accounts, and aggressive short-term traders." Ed Bugos.
  6. Does the threat of inflation in 2005/2006 tempt your taste for gold? iSophia recently featured GoldCorp, an industry leader in the gold mining company sector, in our opinion, with a very market savvy CEO. Click here for a peak at the article.

  7. On the Airline Industry
    "The business model is impossible for full service old companies. They can't compete with young, lean companies like Jet Blue. It's almost like having cancer. The only question is how much worse can it get." Jim Awad, Awad Asset Management.

  8. On Strong Management
    "That's always the indication of a strong company, when it is a bad market, there are ways not to go belly-up." Dan Halpern, editorial director of HarperCollins' imprint, Ecco.

  9. 2004
    "Small, midcaps and technology have led the markets since October 2002, and it looks to stay that way in 2004. Energy could be a dark horse. Biotechs, drugs, are a shaky idea." Ken Tower, Chief Market Strategist, Cyber Trader.

  10. Risk Tolerance
    "Investors should be at the high end of their risk tolerance in stocks and real estate. Bonds will probably do better than people think." Ken Tower, Chief Market Strategist, Cyber Trader.

  11. Insider Trading: Companies that are buying up their own stock
    "Management can give us a tip-off, if we follow their lead. There are a few companies, Washington Mutual being one, that are buying up 5% of their stock, with growth left." David Fried, The Buyback Strategy.

  12. Asia
    "With the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and GDP growing at 7-8% and expected to continue, Asia will continue to be the stronger economy." John Chen, Sybase Chairman & CEO.

 


Stock Report Card:

Everyone's got a cell phone these days, but which provider do you want to own? AT&T Wireless (up for bid!), Verizon Wireless, Cingular, Sprint PCS, Nextel, China Mobile, and more! It's an exploding market, but is the Price Right and are you sure you want to buy into a big company that is trying to lumber its way into a cutting-edge technology?

e strategically buried this report card for a reason. Enough of the mega cellular providers are drowning in debt and quarterly losses that have been multiplying over the past three years to raise concern, Sprint PCS being the most conspicuous in the debt category. There's a hoopla around AT&T Wireless accepting offers from Cingular, Vodafone and one of its current lead investors, but reports are that bids are coming in right at $30 billion, which is AT&T Wireless' current market capitalization, not leaving much room for investor returns (many investors bought AWE at a significantly higher price). We've included two Chinese telecommunications companies because Asia and cellular service are two of the fastest growing economies in the world, but, again, investors have not overlooked that fact and these companies already have substantial market capitalizations and are trading at their 52-week high. Brightpoint, a small cap company that is in the industry, has already posted over 1100% gains in the last eighteen months, which, as expected, brought on a laundry list of insider buying activity. (The insiders priced the stock at about $23/share.)

Buying into the big, bureaucratic cellular providers right now is buying in at the first chance that insiders have had to put a little cash in their own pockets for years. As seasoned Wall Street trader, Rance Mashek, President, SpreadTrader.com,"Don't buy into a stock that has hit it's first high in a long period of time. Holders are going to jump ship!"

Outside of exploding cellular growth, other temptations for buying American telecoms are that they pay nice dividends (the ADRs pay substantially lower dividends), and that while you wait for wireless to explode, if you pick your company with care you are also adding a stabilizing blue chip force to your portfolio. (We say pick with care because it can't be overlooked that telecommunications is fiercely competitive and that Global Crossing and Worldcom both went belly-up two years ago.) BellSouth stands out in growth, dividends, P/E and owns Cingular Wireless with SBC Communications. If Cingular buys AT&T Wireless, they will become the #1 cellular provider, beating out Verizon Wireless, a company that will slip to #2. The patient, interested investor might find a down day to buy into BellSouth (NYSE: BLS). We don't recommend buying into anything in this sector without taking a look at the numbers. CLICK HERE to go directly to iSophia report card.

"We try to avoid the big, dumb phone companies. BellSouth is a big, dumb, aggressive phone company, so maybe they're a little bit better. How can you have a big, stupid, slow-moving company in a fast-moving industry? You've got to go through too many layers of bureaucracy to get things done." Un-named, high profile money managerÉ

Full Disclosure: WIN writers own shares of Brightpoint (NASDAQ: CELL).


Calendar:

Galas, networking, benefits, seminars and special opportunities! Check out what's happening online at the Calendar section of the web site. Click on the link below:

http://www.NataliePace.com/np.php?fxn=calendar


Companies in the News…

News highlights, as reported by the most respected sources in the world. Alphabetized for easy reference. 

AT&T Wireless is taking offers! Cingular owners Bell South and SBC Communications have reportedly offered (not confirmed because the bids are sealed) $11/share for AT&T Wireless (or $30 billion). Verizon Wireless' CEO & Chairman, Ivan Seidenberg, has gone on record, saying that they'll buy out Vodaphone's Verizon Wireless shares, a move which would make it easier for Vodaphone to bid on AT&T Wireless. Expect a lot of headlines over the next few weeks around this acquisition target. Rumors have been brewing of a Cingular/AT&T Wireless merger for over a year, as the combined company would top Verizon wireless as the #1 carrier, with a market share of about 30 percent, leapfrogging Verizon Wireless's 24 percent share.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Pop appeal. While BMY's notoriously creative accounting keeps them off the Most Desirable Blue Chip on the Block list, they do have Erbitux on the fast track at the FDA and the Canadian equivalent. Erbitux is all the rage in the medical community and is expected to receive favorable treatment with the FDA panel and the FDA itself this time around, if the European trials are any indicator. No guarantees, but the absence of founding talent at ImClone (Sam Waksal in prison, Harlan Waksal resigned and a founding board member gone as well) may mean that BMY, a $2 billion investor in ImClone, will gain investor attention with an FDA approval. Gamble what you're willing to lose. Buy before the decision to maximum your returns. (FDA approvals tend to have a favorable effect on stock prices.) Make sure you've got an exit strategy. Know the tax ramifications of short term gains vs. waiting twelve months. (iSophia is not a broker, and there are no guarantees that you will make money employing this strategy.)

Pixar (PIXR: NASDAQ) dumps Disney (DIS: NYSE). Steve Jobs doesn't find Michael Eisner's DISney to be the happiest place on earth. "After 10 months of trying to strike a deal with Disney, we're moving on," said Pixar Chief Executive Steve Jobs. "We've had a great run together -- one of the most successful in Hollywood history -- and it's a shame that Disney won't be participating in Pixar's future successes." . (Can you hear the roar of Roy Disney, recently ous