Vol.1 Issue 48 May 1st. , 2004
Send comments and suggestions. or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Week:
"Typically the sooner you buy a winning company, the better. $10,000 invested in AOL on Day One in 1992 was worth over $2 million [by 1999]."
- Jeff Fischer, www.fool.com .

Google: The People's IPO.

In a controversial, unprecedented move, Google gives individual investors the chance to play on a level IPO playing field.

By Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com

I don't need to tell you that if the editors of American Heritage are forced to include a noun as a verb in the dictionary, you are witnessing an historic phenomenon, and if you've ever used Google's search engine, you're probably keen on buying Google stock.

Larry Page & Sergey Brin

Google continues to break the mold, and is committed to continuing that trend, with an unprecedented IPO, which is likely to become one of the most successful IPO's ever. What makes this IPO unique? Google has leveled the playing field, putting you, the individual investor, into the bidding action BEFORE the first day of active trading. Not only that, but Google is one of the first technology companies to come on the scene with three years of positive earnings and net revenues of almost a billion dollars.

 

Gone are the Dot Com dreamland days of endless negative earnings. The online advertising revenue bonanza has arrived, and Google is the leader in its market.

 

 

Google

Net Revenues
YE 2003

Net Income
YE 2003

Cash & cash equivalents
3.31.2004

 

$961,874,000

$105,648,000

$251,354,000

Source: www.sec.gov from Google Inc.'s Form 10 filing on 4.28.04.

Google is one of the top five most active web sites on the Internet. The Google Web site was used for 34.7% of Internet searches in the U.S. in February, according to ComScore Networks, while Yahoo was used for 30% of searches and MSN for 15%. And that's just the U.S. Google is also the number one search engine in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and Australia (Nielsen/Net Ratings 6.03), with 81.9 million global unique users per month. (Note: There are only 290 million people living in the United States, according to the Census Bureau.)

"You could do very well out of this if everything goes perfectly. But as with all high risk investmentsÑjust don't bet the house on it," writes Paul Wager, the Google Investor editor. Not all financial professionals agree that the Google IPO is a good bet, however. Many are quick to point out that most IPO's are market laggards. Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida, has research based on all the IPO's from 1980 to 1997, which shows an average -22% negative return for the first five years of trading for the IPO's launched during that period. On the other hand, 31% of those same IPO's OUTPERFORMED the market during that same five-year period, while 16% were merged or acquired for a 17% net return. (http://www.iporesources.org//failipo.txt)

If you believe that Google is indeed an uncommon company with unlimited prospects, it's not hard to imagine that Google could be in the top third statistical group of outperformers. Certainly, even in the worst-case scenario, Google would be an M&A target. So, what's left to consider? Price. You can buy the greatest company on the planet at top dollar and lose money in a market correction. The U.S. doesn't have much experience with Dutch auctions, and to use this undertested IPO vehicle now, during the most anticipated IPO in recent memory, is a risky, ballsy moveÑsomething to admire and fear at the same time.

Why is Google different (better) than most technology IPO's?

Few companies, particularly technology companies, are coming into their IPO with the powerhouse positive income and the multi-billion dollar companion/competitor organizations that Google has. Yahoo's market capitalization is $33 billion dollars, and Yahoo is trading at 80 times earnings. EBay's market capitalization is almost $52 billion, trading at 68 times earnings. (Please note that there are analysts who believe both companies are trading at inflated prices.)

That leaves a lot of room to wiggle in the Google IPO, but the world's number one search engine is taking bids from even inexperienced investors, which could spell mania and mistakes. With 400 million common shares outstanding (according to the SEC filing), a reported 264 million of that total being issued, and another 45 million available (from the insiders), the Google market capitalization could get tapped out on the first day, if the bidding run-up is too severe. $27 per share brings the market capitalization to a healthy $8.3 billion, based upon 309 million shares sold. Quadruple the share price to $108, something that is not out of the question on the first day of heated trading for a popular IPO, and Google's market capitalization will match Yahoo's on DAY ONE, leaving not much room for vulnerability in a highly competitive space. The bottom line is that money managers are still crunching the numbers, and it will pay to keep yourself informed before your lay your bid on the line.

Additionally, if you don't like the idea that your common share gets you one-tenth the voting privilege of the Preferred shareholders, you should opt out of the Dutch Auction. (Google's controversial voting classification is shared with few other companies on Wall Street--Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffet's company, being another company to employ it.)

Certainly the most interesting outcome of the Google IPO is that it virtually eliminates the insider's "first day premium," which is the difference between an IPO's initial offering price and the price at which it trades the first day. Typically, this is when Wall Street veteran heavyweights, who have gotten in at the IPO's offering price through their investment banking relationships, have their hand on the broker's SELL throttle to cash out at the height of the first-day trading frenzy, often for extraordinary one-day gains. Toward this end, founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page have remained true to their democratic ideals, something admirable in the world of new billionaires. Since they've sworn off interviews, it's hard to know if the Google founders still don their blades and chase down their employees in the twice-weekly roller hockey lunch competitions in the parking lot of their Northern California offices.

Larry Page, Google's co-founder and former CEO grew the company to more than 200 employees and profitability before moving into his role as president, Products in April 2001, but Google is now being guided by a more experienced CEO and Chairman, Dr. Eric E. Schmidt, the former CEO of Novell. Naysayers believe that bringing in experience and becoming a public company are just the first of many necessary steps toward bureaucracy, bottom line and blandness, but, at least for now, Google remains committed to their unique corporate culture of fun (lava lamps and roller hockey), hard work and independent thinking. Google's management is refusing to provide quarterly earnings guidance and has promised to focus on long-term goals. Google requires engineers to spend a day a week on projects that interest them, unrelated to their day jobs. One Google engineer recently decided to apply Google's search and retrieve capacity to email, with the goal of making it so that "users should never have to file or delete a message, or struggle to find an email they've sent or received." Gmail began testing on April 1, 2004. Since search is the number two online activity, and email is number one, investors should be happy to see Google embracing a new track of revenue, even if it, too, will be heavily dependent upon advertising dollars.

It is important to consider that most of Google's money comes from online advertisers. Unlike traditional advertising sales that are tied to cyclical corporate capital spending cycles, however, Google has an abundance of mom and pop shops. While that's not exactly revenue diversification, it provides a small amount of revenue stability, especially while small businesses remain the meat and potatoes of the U.S. economic recovery.

REVENUE:
Advertising Year End 12.31.2003: $916,603,000
Licensing Year End 12.31.2003: $ 45,271,000
Net Revenue Year End 12.31.2003: $961,874,000

(source: www.sec.gov)

The Google IPO buzz has rock star status in employee break rooms, which are aflutter with the words "Dutch auction," as everyone scrambles to comprehend just how they can get in on the action, and at what price. It's too soon to tell whether the Dutch Auction soars or pops, and whether reasonable bids will be accepted or if outrageous bidding action will drive the share price through the roof. Obviously, the biggest winners already are billionaires: Sergey Brin, Larry Page and the venture capitalists who were smart enough to fund them.

Just how valuable Google has become in our lives? I can type in a few words and find out, within seconds, which champion stallions Smarty Jones will join if he earns the Triple Crown this year. Horse races, like IPO's, are gambles, but banking on winners, like Google and Smarty Jones, is always the best bet.

At any rate, even in the People's IPO, those who are more likely to profit are those who best understand the game. If you intend to participate in the Google IPO, keep informed, and get as many professional opinions on a reasonable bidding price before you lay your money on the line.

Google: a mathematical term for a one followed by 100 zeroes. Hopefully that will also define your success!

For more information on how to register and bid in the Google IPO, check out the following link:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/29/technology/googleauction/


BEAUTIFUL MINDS: What do Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and the CIA have in common?

by Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com

LEFT: Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO, News Corp.
RIGHT: Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences

 

 

 

 

 

 

What do Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and the CIA have in common? The Milken Global Conference, where the brightest business leaders in the world met at the end of April to discuss everything from the world economy and terrorism, to China's amazing transformation into the world's fastest growing free (yes free!) market economy.

Get Smart with Quotes from some of the most experienced minds on the planet, on everything from cutting edge cancer drugs, to MCI, to the 2004 Olympics in AthensÉ For more information on the Milken 2004 Global Conference, go to: www.MilkenInstitute.org.

 

Media Companies (News Corporation, Sony, Viacom, Vivendi Universal, Disney)

"Next year, there will be major regulatory change in telecommunications, and broad band will be in every house. The value will be the content that you put through. You're seeing people working to grab content, to capitalize on that option." John Rutledge, Rutledge Research Group

"The whole media sector, and Viacom particularly, will benefit from the up-tick in the economy. Companies will generate advertising revenue. 2004 has the whole presidential primary. The Olympics coming up in September. These are just some of the events in 2004 that didn't happen in 2003. Media companies will benefit from those trends." Phil Orlando, Federated Investors

"We have a window for pretty fast growth. +12-15% satellite subscribers per year. +10% Sky TV growth per year for some time yet. As for BskyB: I hope there's more growth there." Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO of News Corporation

Telecommunications, particularly MCI:

"MCI is dead man walking. I think it's a terrible investment. MCI, like AT&T, will be left high and dry when the major regulatory change in Congress happens."

John Rutledge, Rutledge Research Group

Biotechs, particularly ImClone, Genentech and gene-based cancer treatments

"Erbitux is starting off very successfullyÉ ImClone has an excellent pipeline. They have a tremendous number of product candidates, and soon they'll be in the clinic with a drug that looks a lot like Genentech's Avastin." Michael King,

Bank of America Securities, who puts a price target of $91/share within six months for IMClone.

"Avastin is used in early stage colon cancer. Erbitux is currently being used in very late stage, for people who have failed two or three rounds of chemotherapy. Erbitux and Avastin are not competitive, in fact, they should be complimentary." Michael King, Bank of America Securities,

"You want to look at solid companies with solid earnings. Any health care related product will perform well in the 2nd half of the year. You want to stay away from technology and some of the high flyers." Bill Strazzullo, State Street

Market Outlook and Diversification Strategies

"2004 is going to be a consolidation period, where the market ends pretty much where it beganÉ People should be defensive now. Take the money off the table. Take advantage of the run-up we've hadÉ Move into pharmaceutical stocks, oil, staplesÉ" Bill Strazzullo, State Street

"The U.S. went through a series of major shocks, Internet crash, 9.11, the Iraqi War, Enron. But if you look at productivity, it continued to do unusually well. During the recession, productivity continued to grow. After the recession ended, productivity grew even faster. When you get a high productivity growth, there is no better measure of how an economy is doing." Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences

"People have forgotten asset allocation, which is extremely important. How much do I have in cash, hedge funds, equities and fixed income? It seems like people have forgotten that already." Thomas Hughes, Global Head of Deutsche Asset Management

"With so many unknowns out there in the world, we should be pretty humble in our predictions, though not so with our hopes. I find myself looking at the world, and agreeing with Gary Becker, and being extremely optimistic in the long term. There are dangers in the short term." Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO of News Corporation

Oil and Terrorism

"Oil will go a lot higher, over $40 a barrel. There is a very big supply/demand imbalance. There is just not enough supply to meet the current global demand for oil." Bill Strazzullo, State Street

"Terrorism could spike oil prices to $70-$80 barrel." Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences

"One of the most outstanding things to worry about is Saudi Arabia. If there is a revolution there, it would happen overnight, and oil would go from $40 to $80. It would put all of usÑthe U.S., Japan and China--in a horrible state." Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO of News Corporation

"Europe has an immigration problem from the Middle East and Northern Africa. There is a huge immigration of Muslims. They have major centers of trouble that are just boiling up. Paris is surrounded by vast amounts of apartment--all no-go areas. There is more danger of terrorist attacks there than we have today here." Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO of News Corporation

The World Economy and Europe

"Overall, I'm optimistic about the world economy in general. I'm not optimistic about Europe. I think Europe has real problems, particularly Germany and France." Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences

"Imagine where we'll be in five years, if we go forward at 4-5% year, and Europe grows at 1% a year. At the moment, you can't see any hope of Europe doing better than that. They have no political leadership with the will to change. They know it ought to change, but you've seen very weak attempts and immediate surrender to opposition. Europe is over-regulating every business and everybody. When you think of Europe as a whole, it's a great block of advanced democracies, and it's tragic that they're being screwed up in the way they are." Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO of News Corporation

China

"We're not ignoring the risks. China may be slow in transparency and new accounting standards. The banking system is replete with non-performing assets, at 30-40%. There are pressures on currency. Historically, reporting has not been transparent. There is indeed corruption, particularly in rural areas. There are also public health risks--AIDS, SARS. All big bets have big risks." Sharon Allen, Chairman of the U.S. Board of Directors of Deloitte & Touche

"China is on the verge of an overheating economy. Hopefully, the government can do the right thing there and throttle back before that becomes a problem. We hope we don't get into a boom/bust cycle there." Thomas Hughes, Global Head of Deutsche Asset Management

"We are witnessing the rise of two powers with over a billion people eachÑChina and India. This will have huge impacts in how our global economy plays out in the future. Some of the tension in the oil markets has been because of the demand pulling China. 40% of cement, 25% of coal, steel and aluminum are [used in China]. It's staggering. It is a boom for commodity producers." Jami Miscik, Deputy Director for Intelligence for the Central Intelligence Agency

"I still predict slow, but steady relaxation [of censorship in China]. There are 1.3 billion people. They are facing huge challenges. If they can avoid mass unemployment, reform will proceed for some time." Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO of News Corporation

"China is going to grow old before it grows rich. This is a paradox and challenge that is unprecedented in world history. China needs to create 24 million jobs per year in order to keep its people employed." John Holden, President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations

"Foreign Direct Investment in China equals $200 Billion. $40-$50 billion per year goes into China. That's a level unprecedented in any country, including the U.S. If you are not a major player in the China market today, you will not be a global leader for this century." Howard Chao, o'Melveny & Meyers

"Companies don't go to China to invest because of their legal system. They've made progress, but it has serious problems. They don't have well-trained judges and lawyers, and they don't have an independent judiciary. You have a government system that is run by one party and that party is not held accountable." Howard Chao, o'Melveny & Meyers

"The Western media hasn't been good in portraying a picture of China todayÉ [China is] hope and hunger. Hope comes from the fact that the transformation in the last 15 years is nothing short of amazing. They expect the next 15 years to be even more amazing. 15 years ago, we would say, "We'll have pork on Saturday." We ate vegetables because we couldn't afford meat. Hunger means, "I want more. I want my piece of the transformation." The existence of private property wasn't a concept to be guarded until recently." Yibo Shao, Eachnet.com

"The progress in China is real and irreversible. The world has reshaped us. Private businesses are allowed to take over state-owned businessesÉ The Chinese people will not be able to deal with a slow down. If the economy slows, which the government is trying to do, it shouldn't slow so much that people's expectations are not quite met." Yibo Shao, Eachnet.com

 

The quotes above were from the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, April 26-28, 2004 and CNBC, April 19-23, 2004.


All that glitters isn't gold.

All that glitters isn't gold. It's copper, nickel, iron and steel. The metals sector trounces earnings on limited supply and skyrocketing demand. NataliePace.com's Metals Report Card.

China has been the story in the world markets, as the sleeping giant that is rolling out of its 1800s agrarian society at a staggering growth rate. While in the United States we hear mostly of the trade deficit the U.S. carries with China, in the world stage, China actually consumes more than it exports. According to Ross DeVol, the Director of Regional Economics at the Milken Institute, China's Trade Deficit in March 2004 was $-.5 billion.

One of the sectors that is benefiting from China's incredible growth is commodities. The metals sector, in particular, has recently trounced earnings estimates, and many metals stock prices have doubled or tripled this year. "Global demand for nickel, iron ore, aluminum, coal, oil, copper and soybeans is rising along with the economies of China and India, so even if inflation doesn't pick up, commodities stocks should do well," writes Timothy Middleton, CNBC contributor.

Skyrocketing demand meets limited supplyÑ a tale of high prices.

"Chinese nickel consumption rose by more than 20% in each of the past four years," says Scott Hand, Chairman and CEO of Inco Limited, the world's 2nd largest producer of nickel. "Last year, it was up by nearly 40%, and we expect it will rise another 20% in 2004É Supply growth is not expected to rise significantly before our Voisey's Bay and Goro projects come onstream in 2006."

Just last year, many commodities prices were depressed, and metal companies, like Phelps Dodge, were carrying bare minimum labor forces and struggling to stay alive. Now that profitability is back, companies can't just ramp up labor, dust off machinery and crank out the product. Often companies face restrictive environmental policies and expensive R&D costs to locate and mine new reserves. Mike Rhodes, the chief of Safford, Arizona's volunteer fire department, jokes that Phelps Dodge has been trying to open a local mine since the Ô60s, and is just now getting water rights secured.

"You can outsource a router to Singapore almost overnight; but it takes years to dig a mine," says Paul Woods, CEO of Odyssey Advisors. "We have not added to productive capacity in most resources for several years. Demand is growing throughout the world, and nowhere more than in China, whose gross domestic product skyrocketed at a 9.7% rate in the first quarter and whose infrastructure building has created the fastest-growing market for energy and materials." Mr. Woods recommends that investors look at two "actively managed" mutual fundsÑRS Global Natural Resources (RSNRX) and T. Rowe Price New Era (PRNEX). He likes Noranda over Phelps Dodge because they've been "blowing away estimates and they pay a dividend." (Rio Tinto is right in line with Noranda's dividend, at 64 US cents per share, as is Southern Peru and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.)

In general, Mr. Woods recommends that investors separate useable metals, like copper, iron, steel, aluminum and nickel, from the vanity metalsÑgold and silver. "Silver doesn't really have any industrial use, and gold bugs like to recommend it for Armageddon. Gold is owned by too many nuts--all the guys with bunkers and food supplies."

For investors looking to add individual stocks to their portfolio, NataliePace.com has lined up some of the metal company competition side by side. There is a huge difference in the management, resources, labor and environmental policies of each of these mega-corporations, which reflects in the financial performance of each. Click here to review the NataliePace.com Metals Stock Report Card.

The story of the numbers points repeatedly to Rio Tinto, a London-based, worldwide metals company, as the standout performer.

Rio Tinto is the best value (lowest P/E). The company is in positive earnings with one of the lowest debt/equity ratios of the sector, and the highest dividend. This year, Rio Tinto was in a position to sell back positions to competitors like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. for up to 76% profit.

Rio Tinto's edge, which is present in the numbers, is also reflected in the proactive attitudes of the top executives. Rio Tinto's Chairman, Paul Skinner, outlined how his company stays ahead of the game on April 7, 2004 at the Annual Shareholder's Meeting in London, saying, "All our operations produce an annual community report, which is discussed with their local neighborsÉ These reports help to demonstrate our operations' awareness and understanding of sustainable development; and how they build social, environmental and economic considerations into the business decisions and actions that they take. I believe this way of operating - where we generate increased shareholder value by balancing long-term and short-term imperatives in every aspect of our business - will help to sustain Rio Tinto's strong performance record in the years to come."

Rio Tinto's chairman and CEO roles are split, and the company takes corporate governance seriously. "A large element of my role as Chairman means acting as guardian of corporate governance in Rio Tinto," says Mr. Skinner. Many of the other companies still have one person acting as both Chairman and CEO, a practice that has been widely criticized by Wall Street pundits and investors who are pushing for corporate transparency, accountability and reform.

On the other hand, Phelps Dodge Chairman and CEO, J. Steven Whisler, painted a fairly grim scenario of his industry, speaking just six months ago, on 10.14.2003 at the London Metal Exchange, in London, England. Mr. Whisler said, "Difficult prices and low demandÉ made for rough sailing. Now, more aggressive regulations than we've ever seen feels like the undertow that can take us to the bottom of the oceanÉ The bad news is that dwindling returns weaken us in the competition for capital and constrain our ability to build for the future." Not surprisingly, Mr. Whisler has cashed out $32 million in Phelps Dodge stock at $78.19/share since that speech. Phelps Dodge's President/COO Timothy Snider sold $6 million in P.D. stock since November 2003, according to Money Central.

So, while Phelps Dodge executives are cashing out and trying to return to positive earnings and cash dividends, Rio Tinto is promoting both value and growth. Rio Tinto's P/E to growth rate suggests that the company is undervalued, according to Money Central. "The improving global economic conditions will mean robust demand for metals and minerals, and higher prices, from which we can expect to benefitÉ China's ongoing demand for raw materials has created a significant opportunity for the mining industry and provides Rio Tinto with a strong growth prospect," according to Skinner.

If you believe nickel is your cash cow, then take a closer look at Inco, the world's 2nd largest nickel producer. As Scott Hand, Chairman and CEO of Inco Limited points out, "We're in the midst of one of the strongest nickel markets we've seen in over a decadeÉ and we're major participants in one of the most dynamic world markets to emerge in our lifetimeÑChina."

Nickel is used in everything from bridges to buildings, from medical instruments and International Space Stations to hybrid car batteries. Further, it is able to be recycled multiple times. According to Inco's chairman, "Our Inmetco facility in Ellwood, Pennsylvania is the largest recycler of nickel batteries in the world."

So think of adding a little copper and nickel glitter to your portfolio. It could be more valuable than gold.


When There is a Will, You Get Your Way.

By David Glasser, Attorney At Law

David Glasser has been practicing law for more then twenty-five years and is a partner in the firm of Greenspan, Glasser & Rosson. He is frequently quoted in the media on current aspects of estate planning law and his articles are published frequently in the press. The main emphasis of his practice is in the areas of estate planning, business and real estate. He can be reached at 310-649-1991 or dmglasser@ggrlaw.net

Whether you are young or old, single or married, have children, own real estate or assets in excess of $100,000.00, you absolutely need to think about estate planning. If you don't decide what happens to your offspring and your belongings, the State will, taking a significant portion of your cashola in the bargain.

Estate planning is the process one goes through to determine the most effective method of meeting your legal and financial needs and requirements while you are alive; and ensuring your wishes are carried out when you are either not competent to manage your affairs or pass away. On the legal side, an estate plan will generally include a will, a trust and a durable power of attorney for health care. Additionally, an estate plan should also include consultations with one or all of the following: an accountant or CPA; a financial planner; and an investment counselor. These are the professionals that will advise you on the best methods of maintaining your life-style as well as ways to increase your portfolio and decrease or delay those horrible potential estate and gift taxes.

If you don't properly plan your estate, unless you spend everything before you go, a portion of the money you could pass on to your children your cat or your favorite charity, instead will go to attorneys and others. Additionally, your wishes on distribution, childrearing, your health, and other important issues will have no legal effect on the court unless you have some legally enforceable plan in place.

Divorced? Did you change the beneficiary?

Are your divorced? If you are hopefully you have been smart enough to change your will, trust, property ownership title, 401k or insurance, beneficiary designation or any other legal document in which your former spouse was named. If not, watch out! Your ex's new trophy spouse, instead of your children and your current love, could benefit.

If you are re-married or about to re-marry, you should be sitting down and discussing the Y.M.O. question (yours, mine, and others), and how those assets will be distributed. If you don't properly plan, and you predecease your second spouse, your children may end up receiving less of what they would have been entitled to, had you properly planned.

While no one wants to think about death, age is not a factor when it comes to dying. Accidents or sudden death can occur to someone in his/her twenties as easily as someone in his/her eighties. If you want your family to be protected as much as possible, and put as much money in their pockets as possible (rather than into the pockets of attorneys, appraisers, court appointed officials and others), you should be making plans now.

Relative Warfare

I have conducted a number of seminars over the last several years, and have been surprised to find most people don't have wills. Without a will, your property will be distributed based upon applicable state law, which may or may not coincide with your wishes. In California, the surviving spouse will receive the community property interest of the deceased spouse.

In situations where the deceased spouse had separate property, the surviving spouse will not receive 100 percent if there are surviving children, parents, siblings, or children of siblings. In the latter situation, the surviving spouse could receive as little as one-third of the separate property. Do you really want to be evicted from your house by relatives you hate?

I have had situations, where a person wished, for one reason or another, to disinherit their children. If there was no will, the children would be entitled to an interest in the decedent's separate property. The amount of interest would depend on whether or not there was a surviving spouse.

Without a will, a judge will determine who will be guardian of any child under the age of eighteen. While both spouses are alive and mentally competent, it is not an issue. However, tragedy strikes without notice, and unless there is a will, "the idiot brother" may obtain custody of the children and control over any funds left to the children.

The High Price of Probate

In California, compensation to the attorney for ordinary services is based upon the gross value of the estate. The time the attorney spends is irrelevant. If the attorney spends ten hours or fifty hours, the compensation will be the same.

You pay double, as the administrator or executor will be entitled to the same fee as the attorney. The following fees will be paid twice.

4% on the first $100,000 = $4,000;
3% on the next $100,000 = $3,000;
2%on the next $800,000 = $16,000
1% on the next $9,000,000 = $90,000.

If your house has a gross value of $500,000.00, and is the only asset in probate, the attorney and administrator/executor could each receive $13,000.00 for their work. That is $26 grand that could have gone to a worthy cause or your spouse and children instead!

The fees for the attorney and administrator/executor are in addition to court- related costs or appraiser fees. Additionally, if the attorney or administrator/ executor has to perform duties outside of the normal scope of activities, they would be entitled to even more compensation, as determined by the Court.

Under the best of circumstances, it will take the same amount of time it does to have a baby or nine months for the Court to close the estate. During that time, the judge will be reviewing the activities of the administrator or executor.

Trust is FREE!

Separate property is not just property obtained prior to marriage. It can also be property received through inheritance or gift. A person could give separate property to the community. However, under California law the gift must be in writing. While having a will is certainly better than being without one, there are additional steps you should be taking to protect your interests, including having a trust. A trust (sometimes called a living trust, family trust or revocable trust) is a document that performs a number of different functions saving you and your beneficiary's time and money.

I have heard many people say, "I don't have that much. I don't need a trust." If you own real estate, or have assets in excess of $100,000.00, you should be seriously considering a trust. No court action is necessary if a trust has been properly created and the assets transferred. Thus the time and expenses of a probate proceeding are avoided.

A trust provides instructions if you are disabled and not capable of caring for yourself. Without such a provision, a Court will appoint someone to care for you and your assets. Of course, attorney fees, court costs and conservator fees will be assessed. If you have not previously designated someone to be your conservator; or there are no family members locally (even if there are family members, and there is infighting), the Court will appoint a conservator from an approved list. I have seen, on too many occasions, the person's assets evaporate under those circumstances. If a conservator provision is in your trust document, then the management of your assets remains private. Additionally, your wishes as to the manner in which the assets are to be managed will be followed. If a Court becomes involved, your financial affairs and mental status become public.

If your taxable estate exceeds a certain amount (in 2004-2005 that amount is $1.5 million), a trust may also be used to postpone, reduce or even eliminate federal estate taxes. Depending on the trust provisions, property can be immediately transferred to the beneficiaries, without seeking court approval. Otherwise, the trust provides instructions as to management of the assets and at what point distribution is to take place.

Life As A Vegetable, Being Fed Through A Tube, and Connected To A Machine?

The Power of Attorney document allows the person you select to make health care decisions for you when you are unable to make those decisions for yourself. The document will also contain your wishes regarding life sustaining treatment and other health care issues, as well as organ donation and what you wish done with your remains. The document can specify what treatment you want, as well as what treatment you don't want. Without the power of attorney, your wishes may not be carried out.

THE BOTTOM LINE ON BOOKS & BOILER PLATE

Will and trust forms can be found at most stationary stores. Books on wills, trusts and estate planning can be located at book stores, generally in the "legal" or "reference areas". The books provide information, as well as forms. Some books also supply CDs of the forms.

Admittedly, there are standard paragraphs in the documents that may be applicable to numerous situations. However, the chances are the books and forms will not have all of the options that may apply to your situation. While someone with experience in the field will be able to prepare a provision that is best suited to your situation, the books and documents will not be of much help. It is also easy enough to place something in a document that may seem clear-cut, but down the road turns out differently. (Does anyone see a problem with: "I give my 1964 Corvair to my nephew John?"). If an error is made, the entire document, or at least the particular provision may be unenforceable. The end result could be as if there was no will or trust. There could also be unforeseen tax consequences. You will also be relying on the book or document being accurate. I have seen books where the information is not correct. If you rely on inaccurate information, the outcome you anticipate could be vastly different.

There are advertisements in the newspapers for estate plan services at reduced rates (generally between $400-$600). These companies will send the customer a questionnaire and will be happy to answer questions. In most instances, people have no clue what questions to ask. Depending on the company found in the newspaper ad, it may or may not transfer assets into the trust. Instead, it may merely give you instructions. If a trust is prepared and assets are not transferred into it, a trip to the court will be required.

All of the attorneys I know who work in the area of estate planning have a considerable amount of questions to ask once they have spent time with the client, are aware of the client's assets and have an understanding of the client's intentions. Generally the attorney's fees for preparation of will(s), a trust durable power(s) of attorney for health care and transfers of property will range between $750-$2,000 depending on marital status, assets and location.

You may want to check with your local bar association, AARP, or if you are a member of a pre-paid legal plan, for a referral to an attorney that will give you a reduced rate for estate planning. But be sure the attorney you select has experience in the estate-planning field.

The cost of proper estate planning now can save thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars down the road for you and your beneficiaries. Proper estate planning also takes decisions out of the hands of the Court, and puts them in your hands-where they belong.

There are a number of sites on the Internet that may be of interest:

www.nolo.com is a publisher that provides information in numerous areas of the law. The section on wills and estate planning provides a number of articles on the basics of planning one's estate.

www.smartmoney.com/estate. is a site that provides not only general financial information for the investor, but also explains the benefits of estate planning, with details on the different types of trusts.

www.nafep.com is the site for the National Association of Financial & Estate Planning. This site explains basic estate planning strategy, as well as providing information on asset protection and taxes.

 

Attorney David Glasser will be in the NataliePace.com Chat Room on Wednesday, May 19th, at 8:45 a.m. PST (11:45 a.m. EST) to answer all of your burning will, trust and power of attorney questions. Mark your calendars!!


Asset Allocation: Protect your golden years from the next stock market correction.

By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

Asset Allocation

One of the interesting things about investing is observing how much time investors spend on relatively unimportant decisions and how little time they spend on the important ones. This problem isn't limited to novice investors; I've seen professionals obsess for weeks on whether to buy Intel or Microsoft while not addressing the much more important decision on how much to invest in technology stocks. However, the mother of all investment decisions is how much of your portfolio to invest in stocks.

Over the long term, no decision is more important than asset allocation. The mix of stocks, bonds, and cash in a portfolio controls the amount of income produced, the likelihood of a negative return, and the long-term returns. More than anything else, this decision will determine the size if your nest egg at retirement.

Living in the real world means that, even though you're a yuppie, you can't have it all. Every decision involves a tradeoff. Is income, safety, or capital appreciation most important? You can pick only one. Money market funds are the safest investment, but also provide the lowest returns over time. Bonds produce income but most offer little upside potential while still exposing your portfolio to the risk of decline. The last few years reminded us again that stocks occasionally become a horror movie. However, if you're serious about wanting to retire one day, stocks are still the only publicly traded securities worth considering.

Over the years, I've met a lot of people who pretend to be long-term investors and claim to understand that stocks go through periodic declines. However, when the inevitable drop happens, the resolve crumbles for many, as they run for the exits. The result is that they're on the sidelines watching the real long-term investors make money when the market turns around. The importance of making a decision and then staying the course can't be overemphasized.

I remember having about five weeks to remodel our office and get it open by an SEC deadline. I asked our contractor whether he could do it, and he said he could. Then he looked at me with a humorless expression and said, "Only you can screw it up." He made it plain that we had no chance of reaching our goal if we changed our mind on the design half way through the process. We made it, but every time I think of asset allocation, I think of our crusty contractor.

To help with the asset allocation decision, a good general rule is that investors with a longer time horizon should take more risk. Younger investors trying to accumulate assets should generally have a larger percentage of their portfolio invested in stocks as a result. Once investors accumulate assets and near retirement, a shift to bonds and more emphasis to safety and/or income is appropriate.

Compounding

Let's assume that you have 30 years before retirement. Let's assume also that you plan to invest $500 per month, or $6,000 per year. The best way to do this is through a retirement plan at work, since gains aren't taxed and no taxes are paid until the funds are withdrawn. However, even if no retirement plan is available, you still have to invest money to have any realistic chance of a comfortable retirement.

If we look at the current yields available on Treasury Bills and 5 Year Treasury bonds and look at compound returns on stocks from 1926, we get the following:

90-Day Treasury Bills .93%
5-Year Treasury Bonds 3.25%
S&P 500 Index 10.41%
Midcap Stocks 11.72%
Small Company Stocks 12.93%

The S&P 500 Index is our proxy for big companies or "blue chips". Midcap stocks have a medium sized market capitalization. By the way, we didn't include foreign stocks in the above, since they have a shorter history of returns. However, based upon returns since 1970, foreign stocks appear to offer significantly lower returns and more risk than their domestic counterparts.

Assuming that someone invests $500 per month or $6,000 per year and achieves the above returns, here is the result after 30 years:

90-Day Treasury Bills $206,592
5-Year Treasury Bonds $297,792
S&P 500 Index $1,077,883
Midcap Stocks $1,389,124
Small Company Stocks $1,761,665

It's worth noting that doubling the monthly investment to $1,000 will double the size of the nest egg at retirement, etc. In this example, the original investment is $180,000. With Treasury Bills or money market funds, you nest egg is safe. However, at present, you'll earn a return lower than the current rate of inflation. This means that the money you take out in 30 years will buy less than the money you put in. That's a pretty high price for avoiding downside risk.

Bonds will at least keep you slightly ahead of inflation. However, with the cost of health care these days, the income from a nest egg of less than $300,000 might just pay the premiums. If you plan to eat and have a roof over your head upon retirement, this won't do it.

With stocks, retirement becomes a realistic possibility. Even the least attractive segment of the stock market (blue chips) has the potential to turn you into the millionaire next door. If you have the option of investing in a mutual fund composed of smaller or midcap companies, the biggest problem facing you in retirement will probably be boredom.


Girl's Guide to Puts and Calls for Maximum Rewards.

"All business proceeds on beliefs, or judgments of probabilities, and not on certainties."

- Charles Eliot

As true as this quote is to the financial assumptions made on behalf of any business endeavor, it also holds true for the world of investing. We all look for certainty, where certainty doesn't exist - - in the markets. The stock market is filled with uncertainty and is cyclical in nature, going up, peaking, going down, bottoming-out, and then going up again. The market may be volatile or it may remain fairly neutral for an extended period of time. Using options offers you an opportunity to profit from these cyclical and volatile times in the market.

Options can be a very profitable technique to help you realize sizeable investment returns without having to invest in the stock itself. Options may also assist you with buying or selling stock at better than market prices. Writing options on stock that you already own may also be an excellent alternative to enhance your portfolio returns and performance, while protecting the stock from decline (insurance!). Investors use options in many ways, although the focus of this article will solely address option strategies designed to maximize returns, by using two of the most basic options strategies: buying calls and puts.

Options are, by definition, derivatives, which means they derive their value from an underlying asset such as common stocks or indexes of common stocks. Options provide you with the contractual right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a stock. A call is the right to buy a stock at the strike price at any time up to the option expiration date. A put is the right to sell a stock at the strike price at any time up to the option expiration date. To acquire this right, you must pay a per share premium (the option's price) to the seller of the option. Option premiums are quoted on a per share basis and are bought and sold in 100 share lots. In other words, every 100 share lot comprises one option contract. Most options are for three, six, or nine-month periods, or remaining fractions thereof. LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Appreciation Security) are long-term options available for a year or two years.

Whether you're buying a call or put depends on your opinion of the underlying stock; whether you believe the stock will either appreciate or decline in value over a short period of time. If you have a bullish bias for a particular stock (you think the price will go up), then buying a call would be considered. If you have a bearish stance towards a particular stock (it's headed south hard and fast), then a put would be considered for purchase. Buying a call or a put requires a small amount of money, while controlling a large investment, which is a very attractive advantage over owning or selling the stock outright. An investor that rightly predicts a move in a stock, can, for a fraction of the cost it would have required if the stock was bought or sold out right, make a favorable profit using options. Don't overlook the fact that all leverage has inherent risk! Options can clearly enhance returns, but they can also cost the investor dearly if their assumptions are wrong and the stock moves away from their target.

Let's take a closer look at these two strategies to see when you should consider purchasing either a call or a put for maximum returns.

Calls - Bullish

If you purchase a call, it gives you the right to call the stock away from someone else at the strike price.

Caution: Calls are wasting assets. At the expiration date, call values can decline to zero if the stock's price stays fairly stable or goes down.

Profitable Trade: When the price of the underlying stock increases significantly above the strike price.

Potential Loss: Limited risk, the most you can lose is the cost of the option premium itself.

A Case for Buying a Call - Bullish

Real Life Example for using a Call Buying strategy: Now let's look at a very simple example of how a Call option works.  In early January of 2004, the share price of the leading mortgage provider Countrywide Financial (CFC) declined approximately 16% in anticipation that the company would not be able to meet or exceed their 2003 fourth quarter earnings estimates due out on January 27th.  If you thought that the pace of mortgage refinancing and new loans were still strong, the recent decline in the stock price provided an excellent opportunity for a strong rebound in the share price of CFC when the company announced earnings - a perfect situation to utilize a Call Buying strategy.  If the earnings announcement is scheduled for late January, it is always wise to purchase extra time so to allow the stock price to appreciate fully based upon your assumptions.  

If you bought a three-month call (with expiration date in April) on Countrywide Financial (CFC) with a strike price of $70 when the stock was trading near $70 per share on January 13th, you would have likely paid $5 per share (or $500 for each contract, which equals 100 shares).  Exactly seven weeks later on March 2nd, Countrywide's shares closed at $90.61 per share.  You now have two choices (or options, hence the name of this vehicle): (1) You can exercise your Call option and buy the shares of CFC at $70 per share; or (2) you can sell your call, which closed at $22.60 on March 2nd (or, $2,260 per contract) for a $1,760 gain.  If you are wondering, "Why not just buy the 100 shares of CFC to begin with"?  Given the stock price moved from $70 to $90, you would have had a nice profit from owning the stock too. First, you would have had to invest much more money - $7,000 (plus commissions) rather than just $500 (plus commissions).  Also, if the price of CFC shares had dropped below $65 per share, you would have lost much more than you would with the option.

What if your expectation that the share price will rise is wrong, and the stock value stays stable or declines? At the end of the expiration period, your call would expire worthless, limiting your loss to the cost of the option premium (in this example, $300)

Puts - Bearish

If you purchase a put, it gives you the right to put the stock with someone else at the strike price.

Caution: Puts are wasting assets. At the expiration date, their values can decline to zero if the stock's price stays fairly stable or goes up in value.

Profitable Trade: When the price of the underlying stock declines significantly below the strike price.

Potential Loss: The maximum loss you can realize is the cost of the option premium paid.

A Case for Buying a Put - Bearish

You have become extremely skittish over your ABC stock. It's now trading at $47 and you are expecting it to go lower. At this point you would consider buying a put to either protect your long position in the stock or to simply capture a large profit if your expectations for the stock are realized over the short-term period. So, you would buy a six-month put at a strike price of $50 for $400.00 (or $4.00 per share for 100 shares). The put has an intrinsic value of 3, because ABC is selling 3 points below the exercise price. If your prediction about ABC is correct and its share price drops, the value of the put will rise to over 7 when the stock falls to 43. If prior to expiration, the stock is 45, you can sell the put for $500 ($5.00 per share) and profit $100.00 (less commissions). If the stock falls farther, the profit will be greater. If the stock does not depreciate significantly in value or remains virtually flat, at the expiration date, your option will expire worthless and the cost of the put (in this case, $400) is the maximum loss you will take.

Using options to enhance your investment returns can be very effective, provided you understand how to use them. It may be beneficial to test several hypothetical examples on paper yourself, before actually allocating money to trading options. Using the above examples, calculate the percentage gain that would be realized from the purchase of the call or put, by substituting the stock at its current price and subsequent sale at its estimated fair value at time t (including commissions both in and out).

This article is not meant to make you an expert or even prepare you for option trading. Options are much more complicated than this brief article can attempt to address. Rather, I invite you to explore in the world of option investing and trading (on paper first!) so that you may gain confidence in manipulating these techniques for yourself. It can be a rewarding investment alternative, if done with a disciplined, well-defined approach, and clear and realistic objectives.

Some of the Basic Terms Used in Option Trading

Call: the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a specified price. (Expecting that the share price will go up, and you will sell for a profit.)

Put: the right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a specified price for a specified time. (Expecting the share price will drop, so that you can sell for a profit.)

Strike Price: the price at which an option may be bought (called) or sold (put).

Premium: an option's selling price. Premiums vary with the price of the underlying stock and its volatility.

Closing transaction: buying or selling an option to close a previously held position.

Expiration date: options last three, six, or nine months, then they expire. The expiration date is the third Friday of the month in which it can be exercised.

At-the- money: when a strike price is exactly the same as the underlying stock.

In-the-money: an option that will make a profit if exercised.

Out-of-the-money: an option that will not be profitable to exercise.

Caution:  To emphasize the speculative nature of options, please be certain that you deal with an experienced broker or advisor.  For the novice investor, it's often easy to confuse an option with a future, although they are extremely different.  Both can be extremely effective tools, provided you know how to use them.   As a reminder, options have limited risk.  On the other hand, future contracts have significantly greater risk inherent in the nature of the contract and the promise to deliver the "goods".  Speculations are not entirely investments.  Investments are deigned to preserve capital and to provide income and speculations involve risk and are profitable primarily because of market fluctuations. Being wrong on your assumptions and correlated trade can be very costly.  Beware, trading commodities (futures) is considered one of the riskiest games on Wall Street. It is 100% speculation!    

Deborah L. Harrington is the President and CEO of Harrington Capital Advisors, Inc.  Ms. Harrington founded the investment management firm after spending nearly 20 years in the investment industry as an investment manager and advisor to high net worth individuals, corporations, family offices and not-for-profit organizations.  In her experiences in working with clients to preserve their wealth and enhance their investment results, she has earned an invaluable reputation of integrity and credibility with clients.

Contact Information: (949) 206-6846 or email: Deborah@h-c-a.com

 

Experienced money manager, Deborah L. Harrington, will be in the NataliePace.com Chat Room on Wednesday, May 26th, at 5:00 p.m. PST (8:00 p.m. EST) to answer your questions on puts, calls, options and futures! Mark your calendars!!


Recipe for Successful Investing: Cook up serious profits with the right ingredients, starting with your heart.

By Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com

It's never as easy as it looks, but the most overlooked ingredients for successful investing are much less complicated than you might think. Below is a three-step, easy-to-use recipe OF the key ingredients in successful investing. You might want to post this list in your bathroom or next to your computer when the numbers, charts and brain gymnastics associated with the due diligence of investing overwhelms you. As most seasoned money managers point out, no one has a crystal ball for the markets. However, the below strategies are some tips from the masters that simplify at least some of the process, while at the same time upping your odds of success. No matter how complicated your recipe for success gets, don't forget the main ingredients.

Main Ingredients:

  1. Start with companies (or real estate or collectibles) that you understand AND care about.
  2. Pick the leader in the sector.
  3. Buy low/sell high.

1. Start with your heart:

There are many reasons to invest in companies you know and love. This is not the only determining factor on whether or not your favorite company is a great investment, but it's a great place to start. Peter Lynch says, "If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock." Warren Buffet is notorious for avoiding NASDAQ during the bubble (and bust). Buffet's portfolio didn't see the highs or lows of the Internet cycle, but he did see steady growth to the tune of staying the world's second wealthiest man, according to Forbes magazine. If you understand, like and use the product, you probably understand what makes your favorite company's products BETTER than the competition. You may not understand exactly HOW they do it, but you know firsthand that the company is getting something right.

Investing in companies you know and love also means promoting things that you believe in (and vice versa). You can actively create good in the world, AND put your money where your mouth is. How many Americans who boycott or sue tobacco companies own mutual funds with Altria stock (Philip Morris' parent company)? The numbers might surprise you. Do you know which companies make up your Janus, Hartford or Putnam mutual fund? Are you boycotting and picketing companies that you own? In Cowboy terms, that's the same thing as shooting yourself in the foot. Know your portfolio and make a change if you don't approve of the company or the products.

Your antenna for news on that company is always on high alert. If you pass a newsstand with a headline on your favorite company, you're likely to stop and buy the paper. If someone at a party mentions your company, you're likely to find a way to eavesdrop or enter the conversation. Since successful investing means predicting the futureÑwhether or not your company will continue to grow in earnings and share priceÑyou need to know what's going on!

Consumers get the information BEFORE it shows up in an earnings report! If the product is headed downhill fast, and all of your friends are shopping at the competitor's store, you can bet that the next quarterly earnings report is not going to be a champagne-popping affair. There are many signs when companies are booming (sales are out of this world, consumers can't get enough, companies are buying back their own stock, insiders are on a buying spree), and equally enough red flags when times get rough (bond offerings, empty stores, outdated product line, consensus insider selling, decline in quality, poor customer service).

2. Pick the leader in the sector:

Here is where the numbers are critical. You need a company that is poised to lead its industry in market share and growth, while buying it at a reasonable price. Lining up the numbers can help tremendously! Is your company profitable? Is it carrying a lot of debt? Is it vulnerable to younger, leaner companies? What are the insiders doingÑbuying or selling? Once you line up your favorite company alongside its competitors in a Stock Report Card (NataliePace.com publishes one with every ezine), the puzzle pieces start to fill in and the picture begins to reveal itself. To gain more competence in this game, try the NataliePace.com online tutorialÑthe Member Mosaic, in the research section of the web site.

For instance, in the NataliePace.com Cellular Providers Report Card (issue 45), Sprint PCS was carrying a debt load that was significantly higher than its competitors and was operating at a loss. Not surprisingly, one of its divisions had filed for Chapter 11 in August of 2003. Whether or not you like the service provided by Sprint PCS, it is clear that your investment is much more at risk than if you place your bet on a competitor that is making money and gaining market share. (NataliePace.com picked BellSouth, which owns Cingular Wireless and recently purchased AT&T Wireless.) Below is a little information on some of the key financial indicators.

P/E: In general, the lower the P/E, the better the value (price). If the P/E is high for the industry or N/A (negative earnings), then either the share price is high, or the earnings are low. (Price to earnings ratio is affected by both numbers: share price divided by earnings per share.) P/E is not the easiest concept to grasp initially. Read up on it, and keep looking at your report cards.

There are times, however, when you'd want to buy into a company with negative earnings. Jet Blue launched an IPO with negative earnings and in less than two years now has the lowest P/E in the industry. How could an investor have predicted that? A quick peek at the money Jet Blue was making per seat indicated that it was filling its planes and making almost double on each passenger over what the other airlines were making. Where can you find this info? Google it! You'd be amazed what you can find online. Make sure, however, that the numbers you're accessing are assembled by a respected, independent news organization, like the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal. (Press releases are the least credible source of news. They are written by the company, and do not have to include the "bad" news.)

52 week high/52 week low: If the price can fluctuate between these highs and lows, what are the chances that you can pick up your company for a lower price this year, if you exercise a little patience?

Market capitalization: Think of it this way. Multi billion dollar market capitalizations are like Jabba the Hut. They are big beaurocratic blobs that don't move very fast, have a lot of expenses, and rule the universe. Micro capitalization companies (under a billion in market capitalization) are like the hare. They can win the short dash because they are speedy and full of energy. They are not guaranteed to win the marathon, however. Jabba the Hut has friends in high places, and will likely pull out all the stops to be victorious in the end.

Sales/Income: The company may have multi billions in sales, but is it profitable? Make sure you look at the income, in addition to the sales. Hint: If the P/E is N/A, then the company is losing money.

Debt/Equity Ratio: You can identify the long-term debt of the company by multiplying the debt/equity ratio with the market capitalization. You'd be surprised at the kind of debt some of the more established companies in America are carrying, particularly the domestic automakers, network airlines, Sallie Mae and Freddie Mac, to name a few É

Insider Trading: Insiders tip their hand on how they feel about their company's future with their buying and selling of their own options. Consensus insider selling is typically considered to be a red flag, while consensus insider buying would indicate that insiders have a reasonably good reason to believe in the future growth of the company. This is not a reliable measure by itself.

1. Buy Low/Sell High.

Easy to say. Hard to do. Buying low means that when everyone else thinks it's the Apocalypse, you're out there planting seeds. Selling high means that when everyone is popping champagne, partying and bragging about their earnings, you're the one sobering up, selling out and heading home, while everyone tells you how crazy you are to leave when the party is just getting started! Check the 52-week high and low, as well as the five and ten year highs and lows. Consider seasonal market trends. Will there be a better buying opportunity in a few months (or longer), or is it important to buy in now? If your company has had a good run-up, is it time to take some profits and redistribute your assets?

Remember that a "rising tide lifts all boats," while a sinking tide grounds all! It is very difficult for even great companies to swim against the tide during a market correction, and you could have thrown a dart at a wall full of stocks in 1999 and seen incredible profits. Your best protection against bear markets is asset allocation. Be sure to read Paul Woods article in this ezine for more information.

NATALIE PACE is the FEATURE SPEAKER at the SHARED VISION NETWORKING LUNCHEON in Santa Monica, California on June 15th, 2004. Not only will you learn how to value INFORMATION THAT YOU ARLEADY HAVE and follow your heart to financial freedom, you can also pick her brain on how rising interest rates and inflation may move the markets. Register for the Shared Vision Network's June 15th luncheon "How Investing you're your Heart Can Make You Rich" NOW at: http://www.sharedvisionnetwork.com


Stepping Out At the Step Up Women's Network's Inspiration Awards.

By Meri Anne Beck-Woods, Chairman Odyssey Advisors LLC

Friday April 30, 2004 was the inaugural "Inspiration Awards" luncheon benefiting Peace4Kids and three incredible women honorees: Martha Nelson, managing editor of People magazine, Caryn Mandabach, partner/president of Carsey-Werner-Mandabach, and Jane Kaczmarek, award-winning actress.

According to Peace4Kids, there are over 40,000 foster children in Los Angeles County alone and 35% of foster children change homes up to five times per year. Sadly 50% of foster care youth will be unemployed and under-educated after the age of 18, and the same percentage will enter the foster care system before the age of five. Presentations from young people who benefited from Peace4Kids involvement were moving as they overcame their nervousness at speaking before a large crowd, and, for the first time, spoke from the heart, sharing personal experiences or reading an original poem written to express their gratitude. Peace4Kids was chosen as the non-profit to benefit from this Inspiration Awards luncheon, but Step Up Women's Network has a long and impressive list of both established and grass roots organizations that have been aided by their efforts. These include Big Sisters of America, Girls, Inc., Habitat for Humanity, and the USC/Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center in Los Angeles. In the New York Step Up Chapter, organizations such as Young Women's Leadership School, Young Survival Coalition, and the 52nd Street Project are just a few of many.

Think of Step Up Women's Network as a boot camp for benefactors engaging in philanthropy, volunteering, mentoring, and advocacy. And like I always tell investors who might not have the maximum contribution for an IRA, put something away, no matter how little you can afford. So it is with Step Up Women's Network. If you cannot give money, you can give time. You can be a mentor, and even receive the opportunity to be mentored yourself by a successful senior member of the organization.

The Step Up Women's Network was born in L.A. six years ago, but has been bi-coastal with a growing chapter in New York for the last three years. Previous to this event, membership was a mere $40 per year with the opportunity to volunteer and attend signature events as they occurred. On Friday they rolled out a new tiered membership program where women have a choice of being an ingénue, diva, star or corporate member of the organization with diva, star, and corporate members contributing more on an annual basis but being offered tickets to events, invitations to V.I.P. parties and other benefits to enhance the membership experience. The turnout on April 30 was approximately 450 women and brave men who raised approximately $150,000. Plenty of press was on hand, and don't think that do-gooders can't be divas! There were plenty of stars in designer dresses. As a veteran of charity Gala and Award luncheons, I gave it a 9 out of 10 because while the food was just good, the inspiration was excellent.

Although the organization has an impressive list of advisors and supporters, the dynamic duo managing the New York and L.A. Chapters are Kaye Popofsky, President and Founder, and Traci Fleming, President, Step Up Women's Network, Los Angeles and newly appointed Executive Director of the organization. Kaye started Step Up with a group of 30 women to see what they could do to make a difference. Traci is an accomplished businesswoman, and ex-COO of Citysearch.com, and also the proud mother of a nine-month-old daughter.

Honoree Martha Nelson, managing editor of People magazine has a long history of being a media mentor of various charities. During her tenure at In Style magazine she established the feature "Cause Celebes," focusing on celebrity non-profit passions. Annette Benning, who graced the cover of the first In Style magazine and introduced Martha, remembers well the initial focus of that feature to bring music to inner city children. Martha and People gave Peace4Kids a van to transport kids to their beloved peace garden located at the 99th Street Elementary school in Watts saying, "If you can get the drivers, we can provide the transportation." Martha believes that "giving back is the highest expression of personal style." Her ability to use media to highlight organizations and issues for good has helped other causes such as New York's Bottomless Closet and the Geffen Playhouse. Through People magazine, almost 36 million people are given inspiration and information regarding AIDS, eating disorders, and missing and abducted children. People even helped give birth to the Amber alert system. Ms. Nelson was generous in her praise of her L.A. bureau chief , saying she was not only the wind, but also the wings, propeller, and 800-horse power diesel engine behind her back.

Caryn Mandabach, another Inspiration Awards honoree, created the first comedy series to feature well educated, successful, people of color, free of stereotypes. While Bill Cosby isn't as rich as Oprah Winfrey, he can thank Caryn Mandabach for helping him create what would be for her the first in a long line of successful and entertaining programs. Caryn grew up under difficult circumstances when her mother passed away at the age of 16 and her father abandoned her. She recommended a book titled "Motherless Daughters: The Legacy of Loss" by Hope Edelman for women who have lost their mother at an early age, suggesting it would be good reading for the foster children participating in the Peace4Kids programs.. In a video shown at the luncheon, her peers praised her for her ability to overcome obstacles and get the job done.

Honoree Jane Kaczmarek's husband Bradley Whitford, who is well known for his role on the award winning West Wing television program, said being married to Jane was like "riding a wild tiger." He praised his wife, for being a mother, an actress and an advocate of her own causes, such as Cure Autism Now and her ingenious Clothes off Our Back auction of gowns worn by stars to benefit charity. When Jane came on stage, the wild tiger had a cane, as she was recovering from hip replacement surgery. Patricia Heaton, an award winning actress and the mother of Everyone Loves Raymond fame, spiced up the praise for Jane with a little bawdy humor. (You had to be there. Join Step Up now!) Jane Kaczmarek gives hope to mature actresses in a business that idolizes youth above all, as she came into her greatest celebrity at the age of 48. She was passionate in her call to the women in the audience to "make a living for what you get, because you leave behind what you give."

The website for this worthy non-profit is www.stepupwomensnetwork.org. Call 323-658-5288 to join Step Up now, and you can still become a member for $40 per year. While the Inspiration Awards honored some very famous Hollywood movers and shakers, the message of the afternoon was that the real stars are all of the women who, without fame and sometimes only modest fortune, quietly contribute their, time, talent, money, and mentoring and tireless efforts on behalf of others.

 


Calendar:

Conferences, galas, networking, teleclasses, seminars and other special opportunities! Check out what's happening online at the Calendar section of the web site.

Get smart in a series of NataliePace.com chats with financial professionals! Mark your calendars!

The former President of Reebok, Apparel, Marilyn Tam will be in the NataliePace.com Chat Room on Wednesday, May 12th, at 5:00 p.m. PST (8:00 p.m. EST) to invite NataliePace.com members to Barcelona, Spain this summer, where world business leaders are meeting to promote peace, cultural diversity, economic sustainability and general good will. Marilyn will be joined by a few of her colleagues—namely Bill Gates and Carly Fiorina! Find out more about what American corporations are doing to make our world a better place, and how you can get to Barcelona for a very good and fun event!

Attorney David Glasser will be in the NataliePace.com Chat Room on Wednesday, May 19th, at 8:45 a.m. PST (11:45 a.m. EST) to answer all of your burning will, trust and power of attorney questions. Mark your calendars!! Keep your money in the family, not in the pockets of the attorneys!

Experienced money manager, Deborah L. Harrington, will be in the NataliePace.com Chat Room on Wednesday, May 26th, at 5:00 p.m. PST (8:00 p.m. EST) to answer your questions on puts, calls, options and futures! These are effective, but tricky strategies, and you want to understand the risks BEFORE you undertake the investment. Mark your calendars!!

 


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