TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.5 Issue 2 February 1st, 2008
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"Hillary
Rodham Clinton's support for the Grameen idea has never diminished.
She visited us in Bangladesh in April 1995 and she has visited
microcredit programs on three different continents. She also cochaired
the Microcredit Summit of 1997."
Professor
Muhammad Yunus, founder of the Grameen Bank
From his book, Banker to the Poor.
|
|
|
Banking on Iraqi Dinars
...and
Other Crazy Currency Trading Ideas.
by Natalie
Pace.
I
get some of my best ideas for upcoming trends from sitting around
shooting the breeze with friends and family. I also get some of
the worst. Recently, I was at my favorite Mexican breakfast dive,
enjoying guacamole, juevos con chorizo and some nostril-clearing
salsa diablo, when the guy next to me leaned in and claimed that
the next big thing was going to be investing in Iraqi dinars.
"Picture
it," he said. "The currency in Iraq can’t get any lower,
and once they stop fighting, there are all those oil reserves."
As entertaining
as this moment was, many important details are missing from this
bar stool investment analysis (which unfortunately the guy was taking
seriously). The Iraqis have been at war most of my adult life with
very little let up. If you began waiting for war to end in Iraq
in the 80s, you’d be closer to death by now then peace. Investments
can always go lower. Iraq is a country with no property protection,
31% inflation and 35% unemployment – mostly of young men, another
recipe for continued disaster. And the profit distribution of the
oil reserves is one of the major holdups to peace, according to
Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, one of the members of the Iraq Study
Group. In my September 2007 interview with Justice
O’Connor (vol. 4, issue 9), she said, "Laws to
regulate the oil resources and permit fair distribution of oil revenues
to all the citizens would be helpful."
So investing
in dinars is the kind of sub-genius investment strategy that gets
floated over two many cervezas and shots of tequila, and should
be forgotten by morning. Still, the idea of investing in foreign
currency, at a time when the U.S. looks poised for a recession,
did stir up my own creative juices. Iraq was a hangover, but what
about the burgeoning economies in Eastern Europe – such as Estonia?
When an idea looks promising under the sobering light of day, that’s
a good sign.
One of the biggest
obstacles of investing in undervalued foreign currencies is liquidity.
Brokerages don’t even trade the Iraqi dinar on the currency markets,
so if you’re looking to buy obscure bills in upcoming economies,
you’ll be buying suitcases of the bills off of shady characters
in dark alleys. Who will buy them off of you? When? Where? And what’s
going to prevent them from simply grabbing the loot and cracking
you on the head with a stick?
Even undervalued
currencies that have a great shot at increasing in value – like
the Estonian kroon -- are typically illiquid. And popular currencies,
like the euro, yen, pound and U.S. dollar, that are actively traded
on the futures markets (by professionals) are also actively manipulated
and argued over by the government leaders and policymakers worldwide,
making movements to and fro highly dependent upon the political
tides – something that is very difficult to read the crystal ball
on.
When I called
to get the opinion of a senior bank executive on currency trading,
he screamed, "Individuals should NOT be trading currencies.
Period! They can get international diversification in their portfolios
by buying stock in banks in the regions they are interested in,
which affords higher upside with far less risk." Walter Updegrave,
a CNN/Money contributing columnist, agrees, saying, "Given
the difficulty of predicting currency movements, I'm not even a
big proponent of investing in established currencies like the euro
or the yen."
So, let’s take
a look at that idea – investing in the banks of foreign countries
– starting by identifying the countries that appear to be best poised
for an increase in currency valuation. In the following chart, I’ve
listed ten countries, ranging from those with the highest GDP growth,
to those with interesting potential economic growth going forward,
and, for fun, Iraq. I’ve highlighted the countries with the most
potential in my analysis. Note that the higher the freedom ranking,
the more pro-business and economic growth policies that the country
is evaluated to have (according to the Heritage Foundation). The
lower the ranking, the more risk attached to the investment.
10
COUNTRIES RANKED BY GDP GROWTH
|
Freedom
Ranking
|
Country
& currency
|
GDP
Growth Rate in 2005
|
Major
Industry
|
Inflation
|
Currency
|
|
12
|
Estonia
|
10.5%
|
Machinery,
mineral, wood & paper products
|
4.1%
|
kroon
|
|
126
|
China
|
10.4%
|
Machinery,
equipment, medical plastic, optical and metals.
|
1.8%
|
yuan
|
|
115
|
India
|
9.2%
|
Textiles,
gems, jewelry, medical tourism…
|
4.2%
|
rupee
|
|
35
|
Slovak
Republic
|
8.3%
(2006)
|
Car
mfg.
|
|
Slovak
koruna
|
|
19
|
Bahrain
|
7.8%
|
oil
|
2.6%
|
Bahraini
dinar
|
|
37
|
Czech
Republic
|
6.1%
|
Machinery,
raw materials, fuel.
|
1.8%
|
Czech
Koruna
|
|
7
|
Canada
|
2.9%
|
Motor
vehicles and parts, chemicals, plastics, timber, crude petroleum,
natural gas, electricity, aluminum
|
2.2%
|
Canadian
Dollar
|
|
44
|
Mexico
|
2.8%
|
Manufacturing,
oil, silver, fruit & vegetables.
|
4%
|
peso
|
|
9
|
Switzerland
Swiss
franc
|
-- (no
exports)
|
Financial
services & banking
|
1.9%
|
Swiss
franc
|
|
Not ranked
|
Iraq
|
3.7%
|
Crude
oil
|
31%
|
Iraqi
dinar
|
Source: 2008
Index of Economic Freedom
Additional
Commentary on the countries…
|
Bahrain
|
Gained
independence from Great Britain in 1971 and now sports one
of the Persian Gulf’s most advanced economies. Bahrain is
home to many multinational firms that do business in the region.
In 2005, the U.S. and Bahrain ratified a free trade agreement.
|
|
Canada
|
Canada
has a large trade surplus, due to its exports of oil, timber
and minerals. Economy tends to track that of the U.S., according
to the Heritage Foundation. Canada could play a major role
in providing clean water to the world going forward. Policy
toward water rights is being developed in the current government.
|
|
China
|
Still
a one-party Communist system that controls policy, religion,
assembly and speech. Most banks are still majority state-owned
and controlled. The world’s second largest economy.
|
|
Czech
Republic
|
"Flat
personal income tax of 15 percent, effective in early January
2008, could significantly enhance the Czech Republic's future
economic freedom score." Gained independence from Slovakia
in 1993. Political deadlock has slowed growth from potential.
|
|
Estonia
|
The country
aims to join the European Economic and Monetary Union in January
2010. GDP growth upwards of 9 percent per annum over the past
two decades. Low taxes. Aggressively pro-business.
|
|
India
|
Notoriously
difficult to get money in and out. According to the Index
of Economic Freedom, "Foreign investment is prohibited
in most real estate, retailing, legal services, agriculture,
security services, and railways… Residents need central bank
approval to open foreign currency accounts domestically or
abroad." Still economic growth cannot be denied. Medical
tourism is becoming a real industry. And the intellectual
capital of Indian citizens getting advanced degrees abroad
and returning to make their fortunes at home is increasing.
|
|
Iraq
|
Unemployment
is 25-30%. Inflation is 31.6%. The ongoing war prevents any
real protection of property in Iraq.
|
|
Mexico
|
A weak
judicial system, corruption and political infighting slow
the potential of this country.
|
|
Slovak
Republic
|
Official
date of adoption of the Euro is 2009. Total government spending
equals almost two-fifths of GDP. Became independent of Czechoslovakia
in 1993.
|
|
Switzerland
|
"As
in many other European social democracies, personal income
taxes can be burdensome, particularly at the provincial level.
Total government spending equals more than a third of GDP,"
according to the Index of Economic Freedom. Europe's fourth-largest
stock exchange. Switzerland is considered to be a safe haven
during troubled times.
|
So, I’ve come
up with a basket of countries that I believe are the most interesting:
Estonia, China, India and the Slovak Republic for growth, and Switzerland
and Canada for stability and potential capital in-flows. I’ve chosen
Canada, based upon that country playing a major role in clean water
and other resources going forward, and Switzerland being the money
safe haven in troubled times. However, a quick look at the stock
performance of Credit Suisse (a Swiss bank) reveals just how closely
tied the Swiss Bank performance is tied to the performance of the
U.S. markets. (The Credit Suisse movement is the black line.)

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
The performance
of the Swiss bank is exactly the opposite of what I expected to
see, and doesn’t make a good case for diversifying there in the
event of an U.S. recession.
Alternatively,
the Canadian banks held up during the 2000-2002 recession, and have
been far outperforming the U.S. banks and the marketplace over the
past five years.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
The top Canadian
banks, listed in order of size from largest to smallest, are Royal
Bank of Canada (RY), Toronto Dominion (TD), Bank of Montreal (BMO)
and Canadian Imperial Bank (CM). CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank) has
the lowest price to earnings ratio by far, at 7.40, and the highest
growth in 2007, at 15%, while Royal Bank of Canada, is the second
best value with the 2nd highest earnings, at 11.10 P/E
and 14.5% earnings growth in 2007. So, I’ve added Canadian Imperial
Bank to the Stocks to Watch list this month. (I’m not in a hurry
to buy anything, even an undervalued bank stock in a country that
I believe has tremendous growth potential, before the markets stabilize
a bit.)
Finding individual
stocks, even bank stocks, in each of the emerging markets is a real
challenge to research and keep tabs on – each for a different reason.
Chinese Banks were state-owned COMPLETELY up until last year, so
the Mainland Chinese banks are even higher risk than the average
Chinese company, especially since American policymakers believe
that China is manipulating their currency to stave off inflation.
India is notoriously difficult to get money in and out of, which
has kept Indian stocks off of my hot list. Most Estonian companies
are not publicly traded yet, although the Internet-based banking
firms there might carve out a niche for themselves. (I’m researching
further and will keep you posted in the months to come.)
So, oddly enough,
my wild ride that started with a silly comment over breakfast took
me around the world and back to a company that is already listed
on my Hot News list – WisdomTree. WisdomTree is the world’s smartest
new Exchange Traded Funds company. Their ETFs make it easy to get
exposure to great international markets without all the fuss and
worry. The funds were created by some of the most successful money
managers in the U.S. and the strategies are based upon successful
buy low; sell high formulas. AND the majority of the funds are concentrated
internationally, giving you over two dozen options to choose from
abroad.
Below are three
existing Exchange Traded Funds in the international financial and
emerging markets sectors that you should be able to buy through
your broker (if your team determines that this is a match with your
long term goals).
WisdomTree
Emerging Markets High-Yielding Equity Index (DEM)
WisdomTree
Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund (DGS)
WisdomTree
International Financial Sector Fund (DRF)
Additionally,
on January 4, 2008, WisdomTree filed papers with the SEC to begin
offering the following currency ETFs. While these ETFs are not available
publicly yet, they should be soon.
Proposed
WisdomTree International Cash Funds
WisdomTree
Australian Dollar Fund
WisdomTree Brazilian
Real Fund
WisdomTree
British Pound Sterling Fund
WisdomTree
Canadian Dollar Fund
WisdomTree
Chinese Yuan Fund
WisdomTree
Euro Fund
WisdomTree
Indian Rupee Fund
WisdomTree
Japanese Yen Fund
WisdomTree
New Zealand Dollar Fund
WisdomTree
South African Rand Fund
WisdomTree
South Korean Won Fund
WisdomTree
Developing Markets Fund
Of these, the
Canadian Dollar Fund, Chinese Yuan, Indian Rupee Fund and Developing
Markets fund sound the most interesting, based upon our analysis
of the growth trends and freedom index. Look for these ETFs to become
available this year.
For more information
on WisdomTree, refer to the article, "International Money Grows
on WisdomTrees," in this ezine.
The Wisdom
Tree ETFs with the symbols DEM, DGS and DRF have been added to the
Stocks to Watch list this month, as has Canadian Imperial Bank (CM).
Full disclosure:
Natalie Pace owns shares in WisdomTree (OTCBB: WSDT). This company
was first listed in the NataliePace.com ezine in March
of 2007, vol. 4, issue 3.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research, consider your
long-term goals and strategies and consult an experienced, reputable
certified financial professional before buying or selling any security.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
International
Money Grows on WisdomTrees.
by Natalie
Pace.
Last
month, I focused all of my articles on defensive strategies, largely
because taking profits, redistributing assets according to a carefully
structured long-term plan, getting international exposure and leaning
into liquidity (cash, money markets and certificates of deposits)
are far more important than picking winners, when there is so much
downward pressure on the general marketplace. (And I hope you read
those articles and have already met with your certified financial
planner to make sure that you are not over-exposed in the U.S. stock
market this year.)
In short, it
takes quite a rocket ship to shoot past the fear and unloading that
is taking place in the American stock market, but I’ve rediscovered
a company that I believe has the firepower to do just that. WisdomTree
has been beaten up for the past few months on Wall Street for two
reasons. It is in the financial services industry, and banks, hedge
funds and even some money market providers have been hit with losses
from the subprime mortgage securities. WisdomTree had to postpone
relisting on NASDAQ due to the problems in the industry.
The lack of
consumer confidence in American stocks might worry some about the
viability of a company whose main business is Exchange Traded Funds,
however, WisdomTree focuses 27 of its 39 ETFs on the international
marketplace. So, anyone seeking to invest outside of the U.S. need
only look to WisdomTree for that opportunity, with less risk and
more potential upside than they’ll enjoy trying to trade in international
securities, currency or futures on their own.
While WisdomTree’s
stock price, and the share price of most of their ETFs, has fallen
over the last year, the returns of WisdomTree ETFs in the international
sector have been outstanding. Most WisdomTree International ETFs
outperformed the related index in 2007, with an average annualized
return of 17% since inception, compared to average annualized returns
of 13% of the competition. That’s quite a win to perform four points
above the marketplace, and one that could start attracting headlines.
Additionally,
increased investor interest in foreign currencies could be just
what WisdomTree needs to attract attention, since they will be offering
risk-reduced, actively managed foreign currency ETF products in
2008. WisdomTree filed a prospectus with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on January 4, 2008, outlining the terms and trading protocol
of the following international cash funds:
WisdomTree
International Cash Funds
WisdomTree
Australian Dollar Fund
WisdomTree
Brazilian Real Fund
WisdomTree
British Pound Sterling Fund
WisdomTree
Canadian Dollar Fund
WisdomTree
Chinese Yuan Fund
WisdomTree
Euro Fund
WisdomTree
Indian Rupee Fund
WisdomTree
Japanese Yen Fund
WisdomTree
New Zealand Dollar Fund
WisdomTree
South African Rand Fund
WisdomTree
South Korean Won Fund
WisdomTree
Developing Markets Fund
Rydex
CurrencyShares
currently offers currency ETFs, but investor options are limited
to the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro,
Japanese yen, Mexican peso, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. Good
luck trying to crack the code and trends of these well-developed
economies that have low GDP growth and highly managed economies.
WisdomTree proposes
to have ETFs focused on the Brazilian Real, Chinese Yuan, Indian
Rupee and other developing markets, in addition to the more popular
currencies. And with an average holding of 60 to 90 days or less,
the WisdomTree ETFs will be actively managed, another advantage
over the Rydex funds. According to the SEC filing, the WisdomTree
cash fund ETFs will invest in "short-term securities issued
by foreign governments, agencies or instrumentalities of foreign
governments, bank debt obligations and term deposits, bankers' acceptances,
commercial paper, short-term corporate debt obligations, mortgage-backed
and asset-backed securities, and repurchase agreements."
WisdomTree International
ETFs allow investors to buy active management of international fund
opportunities with lower risk in a highly liquid environment. WisdomTree
CEO, Jonathan Steinberg (Mr. Maria Bartiromo) commented in a press
release dated November 12, 2007, "The last three years have been
exciting for WisdomTree, and we expect continued growth as the ETF
industry matures. Today, nearly $12 trillion are invested in traditional
mutual funds and approximately $2 trillion in hedge funds. In view
of the size of the market, the $500 million domestic ETF market
has tremendous potential, and we believe WisdomTree will contribute
significantly to the future growth of the industry. In 2008 we look
forward to becoming the first fully reporting, publicly traded ETF
sponsor." Barclay’s Bank has iShares. Goldman Sachs offers ETFs,
as does PowerShares. However, WisdomTree is the only way (yet) to
invest in a company whose sole business is ETFs.
How much of
the $500 million domestic ETF marketplace does WisdomTree currently
have? As of the third quarter earnings report issued on November
8, 2007, revenues for the first nine months of 2007 equaled $12,385,111
compared to $548,000 in 2006. Posting growth of 23 times earnings
in one year is simply astronomical, especially for the company that
continues to fly under the radar of Wall Street. The net loss for
the same period was $19 million, compared to $12 million lost in
the prior year. Cash and cash equivalents equal almost $6 million,
down from almost $58 million in January of 2007 (mostly due to investment
activity).
With international
ETFs in the pipeline, an outstanding track record in fund performance
and an emerging marketplace of ETFs, one of the few remaining questions
is who is running the show and will they continue to be around next
year? This company is headed up by some of the most respected financial
minds in the United States – Chairman Michael Steinhardt is a former
hedge fund manager with legendary performance records, Senior Investment
Strategy Advisor Professor Jeremy J. Siegel is considered to be
"the Wizard of Wharton" and President and COO Bruce Lavine
is formerly of Barclay’s Global Investors, the ETF division of Barclay’s
Bank. WisdomTree’s CEO is Jonathan Steinberg, whose financial services
pedigree began at the knee of his father, Saul Steinberg, one of
the most successful businessmen to ever live, and the man responsible
for taking the Wharton School to its number one ranking. Jono won
the Wall Street Journal's stockpicking contest six times
prior to writing his book, Midas
Investing and founding WisdomTree. Arthur Levitt,
former SEC Chairman, is a senior advisor to Wisdom Tree.
WisdomTree
continues to be the place where smart money should migrate, once
Wall Street sees the performance of their funds. If you haven’t
already asked your certified financial planner about diversifying
your mutual funds into WisdomTree ETFs, now’s the time to visit
the WisdomTree.com
website to learn more. Bear in mind that ETFs typically
pay lower commissions to brokers than mutual funds, so factor that
in when your broker gives you their two cents on building ETFs into
your current investment strategy.
If WisdomTree
were in the clean energy sector, instead of the financial services
industry, I would have named this stock 2008 Company of the Year.
As it is, WisdomTree is one of the few stocks I feel confident featuring
this early in what looks to be a very volatile, down-trending year.
WisdomTree (OTCBB:
pink sheets: WSDT) was added (again) to my Hot News on Cool Stocks
list this month.
Full Disclosure:
Natalie Pace owns shares in Wisdom Tree. (This company was first
featured in the NataliePace.com ezine vol. 4, issue 3, March 2007.)
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research, consider your
long-term goals and strategies and consult an experienced, reputable
certified financial professional before buying or selling any security.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Valentine’s Cheat Sheet:
The
Greatest Love Quotes of All Time!
 |
| Photo:
www.mazell.com, Film and Video Production, Advertising Photography,
562-866-7662 |
If you’re in
a bind and need something to write on your Valentine’s Day card,
these quotes might help! If you’re stuck in a rut or alone this
Valentine’s Day, and you are wondering what this love business is
really all about, these wise observations might point you in the
right direction.
Don’t miss our
online surveys,
where men and women reveal what they really want most from their
lover on Valentine’s Day. And please take the survey yourself, so
that your own lover stands a chance of getting you exactly what
you most desire.
Great
Love Quotes
- A kiss is
a lovely trick, designed by nature, to stop words when speech
becomes superfluous. Ingrid Bergmen
- It is wrong
to think that love comes from long companionship and persevering
courtship. Love is the offspring of spiritual affinity and unless
that affinity is created in a moment, it will not be created for
years or even generations. Kahlil Gibran
- Sometimes
the heart sees what is invisible to the eye. H. Jackson Brown,
Jr.
- The best
portion of a good man’s life: his little, nameless, unremembered
acts of kindness and love. William Wordsworth
- Neither a
lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together
go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul
of genius. Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
- Love is composed
of a single soul inhabiting two bodies. Aristotle
- Falling in
love consists of uncorking the imagination and bottling the common
sense. Helen Rowland
- Love does
not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together
in the same direction. Antoine de Saint-Exupery
- If you would
be loved, love and be lovable. Benjamin Franklin
- We’ve got
this gift of love, but love is like a precious plant. You can’t
just accept it and leave it in the cupboard or just think it’s
going to get on by itself. You’ve got to keep watering it. You’ve
got to really look after it and nurture it. John Lennon
- The perfect
relationship begins with you. Became a "soul mate" yourself,
so that you can be a soul mate magnet. Natalie Pace
- In our willingness
to give that which we seek, we keep the abundance of the universe
circulating in our lives. Deepak Chopra
- With all
matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like
any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the
years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.
-- Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer, Stanford Commencement
address, delivered on June 12, 2005.
|
|
Elephants
in the Room.
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey
Advisors, LLC.
 |
| Paul Woods,
President & CEO, Odyssey Advisors LLC. |
For investors,
2007 was a lot of things, but boring wasn’t one of them. Conventional
wisdom was a casualty as expensive stocks got more expensive, cheap
stocks got cheaper, big got bigger, and small got smaller. To make
it even more interesting, investors had to white knuckle their way
through two 10% corrections in stock prices as the stock market
grappled to deal with the meltdown in sub prime lending and its
resulting impact on real estate prices and consumer spending.
Unfortunately,
the national elections in 2008 reduce the likelihood these problems
will get better anytime soon. In an election year, both parties
are likely to try to outbid each other to throw as much money as
possible at any group that looks as though they could use some help.
Among other things, this will probably translate into bailout programs
for irresponsible lenders and borrowers that will keep the problems
related to sub prime lending festering longer than necessary. Of
course, all this government compassion will have to be paid for,
and the likelihood of higher taxes after the election is one the
elephants in the room that investors will have to grapple with in
2008.
On a positive
note, the financial markets picked up a seismic shift in 2007. The
best performing industry group was alternative energy, and it wasn’t
even close. Rising energy prices have finally done what numerous
government programs were unable to. Alternative energy is becoming
competitive, and 2008 will mark a milestone guaranteed to give oil
and auto company executives the night sweats. Tesla Motors will
begin delivering the first electric vehicle that’s fun to drive
and visitors to the Beijing Olympics in 2008 will be transported
in buses powered by electrons that can be produced from wind and
sunshine.
In 2007, company
size and investment style determined whether stock market investors
made money or lost it. Growth was good, value was bad, and capital
flowed out of small companies and into big ones. For reference,
here’s the stock market segment scorecard for 2007:
|
|
Symbol
|
12/29/06
|
12/31/07
|
% Change
|
|
All
Cap Growth
|
RUAZG
|
2,183.67
|
2,405.85
|
10.17%
|
|
All
Cap
|
RUAZ
|
822.13
|
849.22
|
3.30%
|
|
All
Cap Value
|
RUAZV
|
3,115.65
|
3,008.54
|
-3.44%
|
| |
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
RUIZG
|
553.66
|
611.94
|
10.53%
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
RUMZG
|
884.19
|
976.95
|
10.49%
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
RUTZG
|
2,401.66
|
2,557.61
|
6.49%
|
|
MidCap
|
RUMZ
|
990.54
|
1,031.56
|
4.14%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
RUIZ
|
770.08
|
799.82
|
3.86%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
RUIZV
|
817.76
|
796.04
|
-2.66%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
RUTZ
|
787.66
|
766.03
|
-2.75%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
RUMZV
|
1,142.90
|
1,102.63
|
-3.52%
|
|
Microcap
|
IWC
|
58.45
|
52.80
|
-9.67%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
RUTZV
|
4,354.95
|
3,855.29
|
-11.47%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
1,090.63
|
870.64
|
-20.17%
|
Source: Thomson
One Financial, Thomson Baseline
Within these
market segments, it was all about energy, clean and otherwise, as
oil prices celebrated the first trading day in 2008 by hitting $100
per barrel. This increase in oil prices boosted energy stocks and
made alternative energy more competitive. On the other side of the
coin, financial stocks and REITs were thrown overboard by investors
because of the meltdown in sub prime lending and real estate. For
reference, here’s the stock market index and industry group scorecard
for 2007:
|
|
Symbol
|
12/29/06
|
12/31/07
|
% Change
|
|
Dow
Industrials
|
INDU
|
12,463.15
|
13,264.82
|
6.43%
|
|
Nasdaq
Composite
|
COMPQ
|
2,415.29
|
2,652.28
|
9.81%
|
|
S&P
500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,418.30
|
1,468.36
|
3.53%
|
|
Russell
3000
|
RUAZ
|
822.13
|
849.22
|
3.30%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clean
Energy
|
ECO
|
182.01
|
288.21
|
58.35%
|
|
Energy
|
SPENS
|
455.53
|
603.04
|
32.38%
|
|
Utilities
|
SPUT
|
186.60
|
216.11
|
15.81%
|
|
Technology
|
SPHTI
|
356.28
|
411.62
|
15.54%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
SPCNS
|
268.41
|
299.55
|
11.60%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
IXI
|
352.16
|
392.20
|
11.37%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
SPIN
|
322.63
|
354.35
|
9.83%
|
|
Health
Care
|
HCX
|
388.74
|
409.70
|
5.39%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
754.25
|
786.50
|
4.28%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
4,560.20
|
4,570.55
|
0.23%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
SPCCS
|
302.92
|
259.53
|
-14.32%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
SICSS
|
200.59
|
171.71
|
-14.40%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
1,090.63
|
870.64
|
-20.17%
|
|
Financials
|
SPFN
|
495.31
|
392.08
|
-20.84%
|
Source: Thomson
One Financial, Thomson Baseline
In the second
half of 2007, the Federal Reserve still gave lip service to fighting
inflation. However, the Fed was lowering interest rates as the inflation
rate was rising, which made it pretty obvious that trying to cushion
the problems in lending and real estate had become the Fed’s the
top priority. Keep in mind that the inflation rate for consumers
as of November 2007 was 4.31% and rising, while inflation at the
producer level is significantly worse. As a result, at present,
no Treasury bond has a yield high enough to protect the purchasing
power of consumers.
|
Current Yield
|
12/29/06
|
12/31/07
|
% Change
|
|
90 day Treasury Bills
|
5.02%
|
3.36%
|
-33.07%
|
|
5 Year Treasury Notes
|
4.70%
|
3.45%
|
-26.60%
|
|
10 Year Treasury Notes
|
4.71%
|
4.04%
|
-14.23%
|
Source: Bloomberg
LP
In an election
year, our hunch is that political considerations will trump everything
else. As a result, we wouldn’t be surprised to see further interest
rate reductions from the Fed. Even though interest rates are low,
the yield curve is still inverted on the short end and there appears
to be room for another interest rate cut or two. The flight to quality
in 2007 in the fixed income market had the effect of widening yield
spreads between Treasuries and everything else. At present, we find
the most attractive combination of quality and yield in Government
Agency bonds. As yields have come down, we also think it’s time
to begin shortening maturities, and currently consider 3 year Agency
bonds to be the most attractive.
Given the uninspiring
selection of Presidential candidates in both parties, it may be
more than a coincidence that 2008 is the Chinese Year of the Rat.
However, as we enter it, we find a room crowded with elephants that
are becoming more and more difficult to ignore.
The first elephant
is increasing inflation. As usual, some government fingerprints
can be found. In addition to rising energy prices, poorly thought
out incentives to turn food into fuel have produced a glut of unwanted
ethanol. While this has had no impact on energy prices, it has produced
higher grain prices and this is contributing significantly to the
spike in food prices and inflation. As much of this problem is related
to an insatiable demand for commodities from an increasingly wealthy
third world, inflation doesn’t appear to be a problem that will
go away anytime soon.
The second elephant
is the pressure on consumer spending, which drives the majority
of economic growth. Declining real estate prices make consumers
feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend, and election year
bailouts for lenders and borrowers will keep the problem festering
longer than necessary. In addition, an increasing share of consumer
income is being consumed by higher energy and food prices. Leading
economic indicators are pointing to a further slowing in economic
growth in 2008 as a result.
The third elephant
is potentially the biggest and has to do with the sunset provisions
on tax cuts. Unless these are extended, most will expire in 2010.
For investors, this will mean higher taxes on capital gains and
dividends, which will provide an incentive to sell stocks before
these rates go up. For consumer spending that’s already under pressure,
having to send a larger portion of the paycheck to Uncle Sam could
be the third strike that produces a recession. Our guess is that
taxes are currently as low as they’re ever going to be, and the
increases could easily happen before 2010.
With all these
elephants stomping around, the question is how to avoid getting
stepped on in 2008. Because of foreclosures and the inability to
make loan payments, there’s too much real estate for sale and it’s
hard to see prices going up. In 2008, we’d classify this as an area
to avoid.
Even though
it’s a challenge to find a quality bond with a yield that matches
the inflation rate, the safety of bonds should have appeal for risk-averse
investors. If the Federal Reserve follows its usual pattern of waiting
until an election is over to fight inflation with higher interest
rates, bond investors should find 2008 a safe, but unexciting place.
For stock investors,
there are the usual cross currents. The aftermath of the election
could be taxes on domestic oil companies rising faster than their
profits, drug companies having to reduce prices, and consumer spending
under more pressure from rising taxes. At the same time, there are
more than a few opportunities. Alternative energy appears poised
to become the next big thing, companies that provide what China
needs to become the next economic superpower should continue to
do well, and there is no shortage of foreign stocks if the U.S.
becomes less attractive for investors. Stocks continue to look undervalued,
but stock selection will probably be the key to success in the year
of the rat.
Paul Woods is
President and CEO of Odyssey
Advisors LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing
in equity and fixed income management for individuals, entrepreneurs,
families, endowments, and non-profit institutions. He can be contacted
at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright ©
2008 by Odyssey Advisors LLC.
|
|
Recession Proof Your
Portfolio.
by Natalie
Pace.
The following
picture tells the story. Halloween was our bewitching high for the
Santa Rally and things deteriorated from there and aren’t predicted
to delight us again for awhile. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s
bag of tricks – rate cuts upon rate cuts – haven’t produced any
lasting treats.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
While speaking
at the Women in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club Joint Luncheon,
Washington, D.C. on January 10, 2008, Federal Open Market Committee
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said, "Incoming information has suggested
that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened
and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced… The
financial situation remains fragile." That’s the bad news.
The worse news was that investors became hysterical the week after
Bernanke’s announcement, proving that Bernanke’s "transparency"
policy might benefit from a good Alan Greenspan double-speak bath.
Of course, economists have long posited that Bernanke’s job could
be much more challenging than Greenspan ever faced, with the Baby
Boomers entering retirement, beginning in 2008.
The only real
good news is that in the short term, and most likely at the January
29-30, 2008 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Feds should
be lowering the Fed Fund rate again, something that typically delights
investors, at least for a few days. Additionally, Google and Apple,
and other companies that are rich in earnings, report their spectacular
results at the end of January, which also might enliven investors
who are running scared from the doomsday headlines.
What to do?
Now is the perfect time to take a New Year: New You: New World approach
to your annuity, IRA, 401 (k) and make sure that you have the fundamentals
of a good plan in place and that you have taken additional measures
to recession-proof your portfolio. When the stock markets are beating
up your bank account, it’s time to take defensive action to prevent
further losses FIRST before you even think about trying to pick
the next big stock winner. When everything is heading south, it
takes a real rocket ship to run upstream against the flood.
Below are 7
tips to help you make sure that you are not over-exposed to equities
in the event of a recession. DON’T WAIT. ACT NOW.
- Re-interview
your financial planner. In recessions, there is an exceedingly
high turnover in the field. Make sure that you have a keeper.
For tips on questions you should be asking to determine that you’ve
made a great selection for the second most important partner in
your life, read the "How
to Find a Broker" article in the Investor Edu section
of NataliePace.com.
- Rebalance
your nest egg. Modern portfolio theory suggests that the
best strategy for long term results in the stock market is to
always keep a percentage equal to your age SAFE, i.e. not invested
in stocks. Bonds (not bond funds), money markets, Certificates
of Deposits, etc. are considered safer investments than stocks.
Diversify the "at-risk" portion of your portfolio between
small, mid and large caps, value and growth and international
Exchange Traded Funds. Underweight large caps. Weight toward value,
small cap, mid cap and international. Go light on financials and
underweight (or eliminate) REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts,
the two worst performing industries in 2007, with negative returns
of -21%
on the
year.
- NASDAQ
over Dow Jones Industrial Average. There is a new train
coming where long distance is free over the Internet, shopping
is done online, television broadcasts on the Internet, Apple is
the world’s largest music store and clean energy is the top performing
industry on Wall Street. Be a part of the world’s "greening"
with paperless offices and sustainable energy solutions. Your
wallet will thank you. Clean energy topped Wall Street in 2007
with returns of 58.35%, over energy (even with oil at all time
highs). Energy stocks gained 32.38% in 2007.
Prices are
a concern, so don’t be in a rush to buy into more NASDAQ stocks
without seriously considering the current price to earnings ratio,
the growth trend and whether you are buying the stock at a value.
Liquidity – having more cash on the sidelines than normal -- allows
you to wait for a better price for the stocks and ETFs you’re
interested in – perhaps toward the end of 2008. See the next point!
- Cash
is king. Weight toward liquidity. During the 2000-2002
recession, cash was the top performing asset class in 2000 and
2001. (Bonds were in 2002.) Additionally, having cash on hand
allows you to buy low – in real estate, stocks and bonds. The
reason most people can’t buy low is that when the markets head
south, they lose too much money! If you don’t have cash at hand
and your equity and nest egg shrink, your ability to access credit
diminishes. Consider adding an additional 10-20% in the "safe"
part of your portfolio that will remain dormant until the September
Back to School Stock Sales.
- Take
profits early and often. During recessions, gains are
taken in smaller windows, as the general marketplace weakens and
it becomes more difficult for individual companies to swim against
the tide. Plan on meeting with your certified financial planner
more often this year, to make adjustments to your portfolio as
necessary.
- Seek
out independent news sources. Do not place too much credence
in the counsel of brokers who make their living by selling you
things, or television pundits who make their living by stirring
up "entertaining" discussion on-air or companies that
claim outlandish returns, in order to sell you expensive software
for online trading in stocks, options, currency, etc. (If you
have a trusted certified financial planner who has worked hard
for you for years, that is a different story. S/he has proven
herself to be your ally, not just a salesperson.) Read the blog
of Dr.
Gary Becker (Nobel Laureate winning economist), the
speeches and minutes of Federal
Open Market Committee members, FINRA.org
investor alerts and information, SEC.gov
investor alerts and information, and the NataliePace.com
ezine, which has become the most trusted name in financial
news. Anyone working on commission is going to become desperate
to win your attention as they try to make money for themselves
in tougher times.
- Educate
and empower yourself. Sign up now for the May 2008 NataliePace.com
Retreat, where you’ll learn how to recession-proof your portfolio,
exit industries in decline, maximize your gains in emerging markets,
and experience green investing, green living and green building.
Clean energy was the top performing asset class. Become a profit-earning
owner and investor of a new world. There are less than two
dozen seats available at this retreat, so register NOW ONLINE
to come. (Or email Heather@NataliePace.com
or call 866.476.7442.)
- Diversify
into international. Weight toward China (over India) and
Eastern Europe over Western Europe. One of the most important
things to consider is that currency trading is for professionals
ONLY, no matter what the foreign exchange salesperson tells you!
Read this month’s Currency article for more tips on international
investing and ETFs that are focused on emerging markets and international
currency funds.
- Keep
tithing. Remember that when you keep adding to your tax-protected
retirement account, you are actually buying low as the markets
fall. Just be sure that your plan is allocated properly and that
you are overweight in safe, liquid investments, like money markets,
bonds and CDs.
Recessions are
no fun, but they are not the Apocalypse either – especially for
those investors who have the foresight to use the two-year downturn
to build liquidity so that they are in a position to pick up bargain
stocks and real estate in the coming years.
I’m very happy
to report that 59% of the NataliePace.com readers feel that they
have a percent equal to their age safe in bonds and cash, with only
25% who are all in on stocks (make sure that isn’t you!) and less
than 3% who don’t have a clue what’s in their retirement plan!
Patient investors
can make money in any marketplace.
Peace = prosperity.
Join us.
Disclaimer:
NataliePace.com is a financial news company. We are not a brokerage
and are not in the financial services industry. Always consult your
certified financial partner and consider your long-term goals before
making changes to your portfolio.
|
|
Bear Hunting Season
By Kelley
Wright, managing editor of Investment
Quality Trends.
 |
|
Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor,
IQTrends.com stock newsletter.
|
An interesting
start to the year indeed. As you have no doubt read, viewed or heard,
this is the worse start in the markets since the Great Depression
era. As
you will read in my comments below, the odds are that the markets
have entered into a bear phase. With mid-July as the starting point,
we are approximately six months into this cycle.
The depth and
breadth of this downturn remains to be seen, and while it isn't
pleasant,
there is a positive to be found in a market retrenchment. Value
is being
created. For
the first time in many years, dividend yields on some of the best
stocks are
reaching areas that represent real value. It is during these events
that investors
get the opportunity to acquire the very best names with outstanding
yields that they will hold for many years to come. In fact, I would
suggest that this specific downturn will be a once in a decade,
maybe a once in a generation opportunity to create the type of core
portfolio that value investors dream of.

Investment
Outlook
Reprint from the 1.15.08 Investment Quality Trends stock
newsletter
The dividend
yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is climbing and the number
of Select Blue Chips in the Undervalued category is increasing.
What does it mean? It’s hunting season for the long-term value investor;
your license better be current.
If the Dow Theory
folks are right we are probably in a bear market and it started
back in July of ’07. Now nobody likes a bear market because stock
prices drop and account values decline but it’s not the end of the
world. In fact, bear markets can be exciting for the value investor;
let me tell you why.
When stock prices
drop dividend yields increase because you are paying less to buy
the same income stream. Take Lucky 13 component Bank of America
(BAC) for example. This time last year BAC was yielding a little
more than 4%. With the company’s recent dividend increase and lower
stock price the shares currently yield over 6%. The end result is
a bigger bang for the buck on the same capital outlay. That is reason
enough to be excited about stocks going on sale. Take a look at
some of these other Undervalued Select Blue Chips compared to their
five-year average dividend yield.

As the enlightened
investor knows, however, a high dividend yield is not the whole
story; the long-term trend of dividend increases and payouts tells
the real story about a company’s stability and growth prospects.
So a company has to strike a balance between maintaining their fiscal
discipline to pay increasing dividends while leaving enough cash
on hand to keep the company growing.
In our experience
a company that can grow their dividend 10% per year on average while
keeping the payout ratio between 30% and 60% of earnings seems to
strike the right balance. Take these three Lucky 13 components as
an example.

Pfizer, I may
point out, has paid a dividend since 1938 and has increased its
dividend in each of the past 40 years. Since 1990 Pfizer has crushed
the S&P 500.
The point is
that if you limit your investment selections to financially strong,
well-managed, Undervalued companies that pay consistently increasing
dividends, over time you will grow your capital and dividend income
base sufficiently to meet all of your cash needs. Cash is, after
all, the reason why we go through this exercise of putting our hard
earned capital at risk in the stock market; taking a little cash
today and turning it into more cash tomorrow, or next year or the
next decade. You know what I mean.
While everyone
has a different time frame we all have the same two investing goals;
growing our capital and income base. We also have the same two return
paths: Capital appreciation; and dividends. The challenge is to
combine the opportunity for capital appreciation with dividends,
which over time yields outstanding results.
For the enlightened
investor a period of depressed share prices and higher than average
dividend yields sets the table for meeting your investment goals
and objectives. At the end of the day owning a portfolio of stocks
that returns double your investment in dividends while still owning
the companies that paid those dividends is what value investing
is all about.
The
Timely Ten
Investment
Quality Trends primary purpose is to assist subscribers in growing
their capital and income base from which to derive cash for their
current and future needs. To that end we believe that high-quality
stocks purchased at historically low-price-to-high-yield offers
the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.
For subscribers
to effectively mirror our Model Portfolio for performance tracking
purposes (every stock in the Undervalued and Rising Trend categories),
would require holding one hundred twenty one stocks as of the Mid-December
issue; clearly too many positions to be practical. The Timely Ten,
therefore, is not just another "best of, right now" list.
It is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience
for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.
Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately?
Of course not. Our four decades of research and experience, however,
leads us to believe that these stocks, purchased at current Undervalued
levels, are well positioned for appreciation.
Whether you
are looking to build a portfolio from scratch, are partially invested
and looking to add new positions, or full invested and in need of
some affirmation and hand holding, The Timely Ten represents our
top ten recommendations as of each issue. Short of utilizing the
personal investment management services of our sister company, this
is as close to hands on advice you can get.
The Timely Ten
consists of Undervalued stocks that generally have a S&P
Dividend & Earnings Quality rating of A- or better, a "G"
designation for exemplary long-term dividend growth, a P/E ratio
of 15 or less, a payout ratio of 50% or less (75% for Utilities),
debt of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), and technical characteristics
on the daily and weekly charts that suggests the potential for imminent
capital appreciation. This issue’s selections are:

Kelley Wright
is currently performing at the top all of his peers on Wall Street
for the past 20 years, in the top 10 of all-star performance, and
#4 in risk-adjusted performance. Kelley’s stock newsletter, IQTrends.com,
is earning 12.5% in annualized gains, according to Hulbert’s
Financial Digest, compared to market performance
of 11.8%. IQTrends.com also has lower risk and volatility than the
market average. To subscribe, go to IQTrends.com.
DON’T
MISS: Online Chat with Kelley Wright, #1 Blue Chip Stock Picker
Wednesday,
February 20th, 2008
8:45AM
through 9:30AM PT
NataliePace
hosts an online chat for subscribers with the #1 blue chip stock
picker Kelley Wright, managing editor, Investment Quality Trends
stock newsletter. Learn tricks to recession-proof your portfolio
and add superior Blue Chip value stocks to your holdings now!
THE
WORLD MONEY SHOW ORLANDO
Kelley
would like to extend an invitation to you and a guest to join him
at:
The
World Money Show Orlando, February 6-9, 2008, at The Gaylord Palms
Resort.
Register
FREE by calling 800-970-4355 and mention priority code #009894.
|
|
Swim with the Dolphins.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero
to Zillionaire.
 |
|
Chellie
Campbell,
Author
of Zero to Zillionaire
Photo
credit: Mary Ann Halpin
|
I divide the
world into two groups: My People and Not My People. My
People are Dolphins—happy, friendly, and rich. Not My People come
in two species: Sharks who want to eat you—or Tuna who want to complain
to you. You can tell who’s who by the way you feel after you’ve
been with them, and the state of your bank account. Dolphins put
money in your pocket and a song in your heart. Sharks rob you and
leave you bleeding. Tuna cry for you but can’t help you. If you
want to be wealthy, you have to learn to be a Dolphin and choose
your friends and co-workers wisely. Don’t borrow from a loan shark.
Don’t ask unsuccessful people for career advice. Get Zillionaire
advice from Dolphins, and you’ll become one yourself.
This is how
to tell which sea creatures you’ve been swimming with:
Dolphins:
You feel good and you are rich.
Sharks:
You feel bad and you are broke.
Tunas:
You feel tired but you broke even.
Sharks sneer
at books like this one. Why would anyone need a book to tell him
or her how to be successful? Kill or be killed is all you need to
know—it’s survival of the fittest, dummy. Tuna don’t read books
except as a vehicle to beat themselves up with and cry, "Oh,
no, this doesn’t work for me, either. Nothing ever works for me."
Dolphins value learning and growing; they read books, take workshops,
attend classes, listen to CDs, and are always improving themselves
and the world around them.
When you learn
to surround yourself with Dolphins and avoid Shark and Tuna, you
will be richer and happier, and so will your friends. You’ll be
a Zillionaire among Zillionaires.
Dolphins
Dolphins are
friendly creatures; they swim in groups called pods. They are intelligent
and communicate with each other. They are playful, jumping for the
joy of it in graceful arcs above the waves. They have been known
to ward off Shark attacks and protect other fish in the sea.
People who are
Dolphins are generous. They love to share the wealth and always
make sure there is enough money left on the bargaining table so
that everyone feels they’ve made a good deal. They’d like nothing
better than for everyone in the world to be rich, but they understand
that you have to work for it. Because of this, they are wonderful
mentors and teachers and are delighted to share their secrets of
success with you. They give you honest feedback, but only when requested.
When you swim in the company of Dolphins, you feel empowered, energized,
and uplifted. You feel better about yourself and the world around
you, and you have more money, too. You will always find Dolphins
swimming alongside your golden treasure ships.
Dolphins praise
you and pay you.
Dolphins play
Win-Win.
Sharks
Sharks are eating
machines. That is their sole purpose in life—eating. It’s not their
fault—they were born like that. They are big and have big teeth—the-better-to-eat-you-with-my-dear. They
are on the hunt. The music plays "Do-do, do-do" and then
they pounce. The world is their oyster—literally. They see everyone
else in the world as dinner. That includes you.
Sharks are
sometimes rich, but don’t enjoy their wealth because the word "enough"
doesn’t exist in their vocabulary. Sharks don’t share with anybody,
because their constant thought is "Me, me, me, I, I, I"
so there is no room at the dinner table for anyone else except on
a plate. You will see Sharks swimming alongside pirate ships and
black plague ships.
There are two
kinds of Sharks: Angry Sharks and Con-Artist Sharks.
- Angry
Sharks. They are completely self-obsessed. They
have no empathy for other people—they just can’t tell that you
have thoughts and feelings just like they do. You are food. They
are angry with life and the world and are going to take it out
on you. These sharks tend to scream and yell and throw tantrums
in order to get their way. They will tell you everything that’s
wrong with you if you give them an opportunity—like if you say,
"Hello." Powered by rage, they are fearsome to behold.
They rip you apart right away.
- Con-Artist
Sharks. They are Sharks in Dolphin’s Clothing.
They pretend to be your friend and imitate Dolphin behavior in
order to get close to you. They have charisma, a hail-fellow-well-met
bonhomie, and a ready smile—there’s no such thing as an obnoxious
con artist. But look in their eyes—you’ll see nothing but calculation.
They are running numbers, figuring what you are worth and how
they can take advantage of you. Their offers sound so fabulous!
You suspect maybe they’re too good to be true, but what if it
really is your lucky day at last and this is a fabulous opportunity
for you to get rich?? So you throw your skepticism into Davy Jones’
Locker and board their Pirate Ship to search for the treasure.
But you’re the treasure and now they’ve got you walking the plank
into their jaws. They are your best buddy—until they slowly rip
you apart.
After you’ve
been swimming in Shark-infested waters, you feel hurt, wounded,
and betrayed. And usually, you are broke, too.
Sharks could
pay you—but they don’t want to. They want all the money for themselves.
Sharks play
Win-Lose.
Tunas
Tunas are food
for the Sharks. They are the Victims of the Universe, and they
wear their martyr crowns and title sashes proudly. They talk endlessly
about how awful life is and how badly they’ve been treated and how
it isn’t their fault. It’s a one-way conversation—all they want
from you is a sympathetic "oh, you poor thing!" now and
then.
Tunas complain
a lot and don’t accomplish much. They would love to share but they
can’t because they’re broke and could you please invest in their
business or loan them some money so they can save the world through
their non-profit organization? You will find Tunas swimming alongside
fishing boats, looking for a handout. They get hauled in instead,
and handed out to someone else. They don’t get dinner—they are
dinner.
Tunas come
in two species: Angry Tunas and Timid Tunas.
- Angry
Tunas. They are the "Ain't It Awful"
or "Doesn’t It Suck" people who complain endlessly about
everything. They never do anything about anything, mind
you, they just whine and complain. "Life is Unfair"
and "What’s the Use" are their mottos. Angry Tunas will
hurt you almost as badly as a Shark will, but they will do it
through passive-aggressive behavior. Their inaction will cost
you a contract, cost you a friendship, cost you a fortune. And
they will get huffy if you say anything to them about it, because
They Are Blameless. Nothing is ever their fault.
- Timid
Tunas. They never do anything either because they
are afraid. They mask their ineffectual behavior under the guise
of being Self-Sacrificing and Good-Hearted, but really they are
just Victims. They justify playing with Sharks saying, "Oh, there's
really a Dolphin in there somewhere—I'm going to help them find
their inner Dolphin," meanwhile completely oblivious to the fact
that they're missing a fin and the blood in the water is their
own. Timid Tunas won’t cause you direct harm, but they will make
you really, really frustrated.
Both kinds
of Tunas end up as dinner. And you’ll be in the frying pan with
them, salted and breaded, if you swim with them very often. After
you’ve spent some time with Tunas, you feel tired, depressed, and
need to take a nap. It’s hard to get anything done after that.
Tunas can’t
pay you. Tunas have no money.
Angry Tunas
play Lose-Lose. Timid Tunas play Lose-Win.
Life is great
and you can have what you want! But you won’t get a great life by
crying over not having one. That’s a plea for negative attention
and I risk my own health and wealth if I swim with you too long.
Dolphins are
Your People. Listen. Underneath the noise and squawk of a billion
people, Dolphins are singing. Find them and swim with them.
Chellie Campbell
is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit. She
created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops, on
which her book is based, in the Los Angeles area and gives programs
throughout the country.
If you are
stuck in a rut in your business or life and/or having too much "month
at the end of your money," Chellie’s workshop might be just what
you need to get things on the right track. You can sign up for Chellie's
Ezine and workshop at www.chellie.com.
|
|
Get Rich and Healthy.™
by Natalie
Pace.
Create
the body, life and world you desire.
|
|
Photo
by: Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079 |
If 2008 is as
difficult a year as economists predict it will be, there will be
a lot of people phoning me in anguish between now and the end of
the year. That is why I’m encouraging you now to come to my
retreat in May 2008. It is the last retreat that I have scheduled
for this year, and it is limited to just two dozen smart, proactive
individuals.
Maximizing returns
in a crazy marketplace is not about investing more or spending a
lot of time trying to get a Ph.D. In math. It’s simply about
applying information you already have (as a shopper and consumer)
and the money you already invest (as a person with a retirement
plan) toward the goods and services that are going to make our future
world shine, while increasing your nest egg. Taking a proactive
approach now, getting the basics of your nest egg in order, cushioning
your nest egg against a potential stock market downturn and providing
the liquidity to take advantage of a marketplace where values can
be abundant in the future (but not available to people who have
lost too much money and have no cash at hand to invest) is KEY NOW.
And FYI: alternative energy, the area I was most focused on
in during 2007, was the TOP performing industry on Wall Street –
above energy and oil -- earning almost 60 cents on the dollar on
average.
These are all things that your broker may not be aware of, and,
even if they are, few brokers are paid to share with you. (There
are many fabulous brokers out there. But it is also a high-turnover
profession where the fly-by-nights give the pros a bad name.) So,
whether you are a broker looking to maximize returns and learn more
about the top performing industry on Wall Street or an investor
interested in recession-proofing your portfolio and creating the
liquidity to buy low in September, I encourage you to immerse
yourself NOW in the wisdom, training and games of an executive whose
mission and job is to add a splash of green to Wall Street and transform
lives on Main Street.
I got into this business because a number of my friends came to
me in 2001, begging me to "teach them what I know" after
they had lost up to 70% of their nest egg. 2001 was a year
that I earned over 200% gains in the stock market – without shorting,
so my friends knew that I had wisdom to share with them. The
question was, "Could I find a way to share my wisdom in a way
that made buying stocks as much fun as shopping?"
None of us
wanted to go back to school or read boring charts. Just like
many of us exercise to look good naked, my friends noticed a sagging
bottom line and wanted to start exercising fiscal wisdom in order
to have beautiful returns. And it worked did. Between 2002, when
we founded the club, and April 2004, when I cashed out, we more
than doubled our investment AND launched the Women’s Investment
Network, LLC.
I’d much rather teach what I know before people have lost half or
more of their portfolio than after. Pain is a powerful motivator.
It’s more difficult to motivate yourself to take action before
the pain begins, but being a fitness buff, I know that daily, powerful,
healthy habits not only create the body and health I most desire,
they actually make me crave natural food over candy. And that
same rationale applies to fiscal fitness. When you learn a
few healthy habits, you are less likely to be tempted by the candy
of get-rich quick schemes – those scams that come across the Internet
or half-baked investment strategies dreamed up over a golf game.
As you may or may not already know, as a journalist, I reveal stock
market secrets that stockbrokers rarely disclose. Financial
planners and I have very different jobs. Your certified financial
planner should be aware of your personal goals, your income, how
many children you have, whether or not you pay for private school
and/or college, how to maximize your gains while considering your
risk tolerance, reducing your taxes, and much more.
I don’t know the first thing about your personal situation. My
sole concern is reporting the news, information and education you
need to succeed, to add a splash of green to Wall Street and to
transform lives on Main Street. In short, I’m here to do sophisticated,
investigative financial reporting on the best companies on Wall
Street and worldwide, who are creating the products and services
of the future. Smart brokers read my ezine religiously, and
I, in turn, have a few very smart, ethical money managers to whom
I am able to refer potential clients.
As we enter a time when policymakers and economists are warning
of a recession, now is the time to be proactive about educating
yourself and any group you are part of on how to maximize returns
and protect existing portfolios — even if your group is a group
of stock brokers. (Check out the testimonial below from a
smart stock broker who began investing in the companies featured
in my stock newsletter last year.)
"I've had a staggering year (any given day to this point
80%-90% gains) based almost solely on her picks." Anonymous,
Investment Consultant. (We protect his name at his request.)
Last year, during a very crappy year in the stock market, the companies
featured in NataliePace.com, once again, had a wonderful year. Check
out the performance of our featured companies between Oct. 2006
and June 2007! 4 out of 9 companies – almost half – doubled or more.
Suntech Power Holdings Oct 2006
+160%
MEMC Electronics Nov 2006
+103%
Gap Stores December 2006 -14%
Suntech Power Holdings 2007 Company
of the Year +96%
Apple Computer February 2007
+103%
Wisdom Tree (ETFs) March 2007 -67%
World Water & Solar April
2007 +163%
Trina Solar May 2007 -4%
Novastar Financial (short) June 2007 -93%
(we expected it to lose $)
TOTAL Avg. GAINS +70.3%*
*as of 1.14.08.
Put your money where your heart is and watch it earn top gains for
you, even as it enriches our world. As investors, we should be entering
the stock market with our skills, talents, gifts, know how and morals
and shaping the world as we know it into a place where peace, profits,
sustainable energy, pro-business and pro-staff policies co-create
products that are made faster, better, cheaper and with an eye toward
distributing these profits to the betterment of the people around
the world (who are linked to the business some way, anyhow). Yes,
we live in a world where doing good is great for your wallet and
will be in the years to come.
"Be the change you wish to see" (Gandhi) by changing your
fiscal discipline now, and watch how that simple process enriches
your own life, your estate, your nest egg and the world around you.
The Get Rich
and Healthy Retreat will be May 7-9, 2008 in Santa Monica, California.
If you would like to ensure your spot in this very limited retreat,
call 866.476.7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com before February
15, 2008, to receive the lowest price possible. $1495 for one person.
$2250 for two people. (Signup online is also available.)
You will begin
each day with life and fitness coach Gary Kobat, learning how to
move and eat to create more energy and health, which sets the stage
for your fiscal fitness! Then, you will learn, practice and transform
your life in the following ways:
* How to earn
30% more in your stock portfolio instantly
* Recession-Proof
your Golden Nest Egg in 5 minutes
* Picking quality
fruit at the stock market, like Opsware (+690%)
* 3-ingredient
recipe for cooking up profits
* Green investing
* Green living
* Green building
* Creating sacred
partnerships in business, investing and life
Thanks in advance
for your time and consideration.
Peace = Prosperity.
I hope you’ll
join us.
Natalie
|
|
How to Have Your Best
Year Yet!
by
Gary Kobat
21
Days that will Change Your Life!
 |
| Jim
Carrey, Will Ferrell and Gary Kobat |
A new year.
A clean slate. You’re starting fresh, but….
The beauty of
the beginning of the year is that we all start with a clean slate…
well, maybe. That’s if we didn’t eat too much, drink too much, spend
too much, work too much, or holiday too much finishing out the year.
Many people
TALK about changes they want to make in their lives, even have the
motivation to make changes in their lives now, but very few actually
take the steps to ENSURE that these changes do take place.
Are you motivated
but don’t know how to start?
Are you ready
for action but are looking for a different approach ?
Are you willing
to invest the energy it takes to make those changes but seem overwhelmed
because a few weeks have already gone by?
Would you like
to have a simple, no-nonsense, results-oriented template for achieving
those big, unreasonable and outrageous dreams you have always had?
Looking outside
yourself for the answers? Don’t. They’re right inside, next to the
power you were given when you were born.
Getting Healthy
AND Wealthy… IS POSSIBLE…if you choose; if you start to learn about
it, if you WANT it, are available to let it; and do not just talk
about it.
Join us for
this impactful, three-part, 21-day morning-call series:
21
Days That Will Change Your Life!
… a 21
day morning-call teleconference series on how world-class achievers
shift their thinking, shift their eating, shift their moving, and
shift their financial decisions to create the most amazing energy,
health, and wealth results anyone can ever imagine in a year.
- Create laser-like
direction, build personal momentum, and manufacture energy you
never knew you had – fiscally and physically.
- Develop forward-moving
goals and objectives in minutes for
less stress, more wealth, a recession-proof portfolio and more
balance in
2008.
- How to look
and feel younger… while getting older. How to invest in companies
that are creating the products of tomorrow, while trimming back
on the industries that are rapidly declining.
- How to triple
your energy while losing, maintaining, or gaining
weight in alignment with your goals. How to triple the performance
of your portfolio, with less risk, while recession-proofing your
nest
egg.
- The statistical
truths about foods, fuels, the keys to human performance,
why diets fail, and why our weight may not be
the real problem. The statistical data about annual returns, making
gains
during recessions, how to take a long term view for your nest
egg and
a short-term view for your trading portfolio in order to be in
balance, flow and to maximize profits.
- Design decision
making tools for staying focused and committed to your top
priorities and bigger picture activities, while eliminating interference
that
doesn’t serve you….
- Daily calls
for fine-tuning your attitude, intentions and outcomes.
And much more.
It’s time to
find your own answers, uncover your own internal motivations, create
a whole new vision for yourself this year: not by hope, not by chance…but
by design.
The
Program:
The
core of the program will be energy, wisdom and working smarter –
not harder.
When you have
energy, you can do anything.
When you understand
how to make energy, how to access your energy, how to
unblock your energy, how to implement your energy, then your decisions
start to be crisper, clearer, more impactful, and that energy
will be transferred into better decisions, manifesting more actions
that create bigger results – in your health and in your wealth.
We’ll warn you:
It won’t be about about dieting, counting calories or counting crunches;
but it will be about creating energy for the rest of your life:
course correcting when you get off the path, getting in alignment
with your highest, best self and letting this be the first year
of the rest of your life.
And how are
we going to do that: a series of 21-day lessons in grounding, anchoring
and course correcting your thinking, eating, moving, and finances.
To learn more
about the 21-day program, which begins on March 7, 2008, join us
in the online chat with Natalie Pace and Gary Kobat on Wednesday,
February 6th, 2008. (Information below and on the calendar
section.)
To sign up NOW,
simply call 866.476.7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com.
If you need
to update your payment information, please leave your credit card
number and expiration date on the voice mail system (as it is secure).
Email is not a secure format for your credit card number.
Chat
with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat
Wednesday, February 6th, 2008
8:45AM through 9:30AM PT
21 days
to a healthier, wealthier, more beautiful you. It's all about energy,
tapping into, nourishing and maximizing what you already have to
make extraordinarily easy life changes to embody your highest potential.
|
Gary
Kobat is a personal life and fitness coach in Los Angeles,
California. His clients include Jim Carrey, Will Ferrell and
more.
|
|
Natalie
Pace is the most trusted name in financial news. Since 2002,
when she launched NataliePace.com, she has been a top-performing
stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits. Of the companies
featured between Oct. 2006 and June 2007. 4 out of 9 companies
– almost half – doubled or more, with average gains of 70.3%
(as of 1.14.08). 3 out of 5 Company of the Year selections
more than doubled.
|
|
| Credit:
www.mazell.com. Film and Video Production, Advertising Photography,
562-866-7662. |
 |
Citizen
Participation and the Opportunity Economy.
by Peter
Levine, director of CIRCLE and blogger at www.peterlevine.ws/mt.
I am a proud
member of the Hope
Street Group. I am drawn to HSG's ideal of creative
participation in our economy--the notion that everyone can contribute
and benefit by working and investing, but that we must reform policies
to allow fair economic participation. The HSG rejects the ideas
that resources are finite and scarce, that poor people are merely
victims who need to be protected by government, and that institutions
are inherently untrustworthy if they are led by privileged people.
That kind of pessimistic populism promotes destructive conflict,
weakens useful institutions, and undermines the agency of the poor.
It is also a losing political strategy, because most Americans realize
that they can have economic opportunities. The Hope Street Group
offers an optimistic version of populism that respects everyone's
talents and energies while acknowledging that many of us are blocked
from fully participating in markets.
Although I am
drawn to the philosophy of the Hope Street Group, I have no real
expertise in economics or contemporary business. My background is
in civic participation. I study (and sometimes assist) efforts to
engage Americans in addressing problems through voluntary action,
whether volunteering, voting, protesting, or creating associations.
To "participate"
in the economy is not the same thing as to "participate" in civil
society or the public sector--but there are common themes. In both
cases, the idea is to improve people's individual and common circumstances
by tapping their creativity and ambition. Depending on the situation,
citizens can address their individual needs and serve the common
good best through markets, governments, or voluntary associations.
I'm for giving everyone opportunities in all sectors.
There is a potential
tension between my field of civic engagement and the Hope Street
Group. That tension involves the role of managerial expertise. Many
HSG members are entrepreneurs and business executives who believe
that poor management of the public sector frustrates economic opportunity.
For example, some of our public school systems are adequately funded
but have been managed very wastefully; and the victims are our poorest
children. Importing managerial reforms from the private sector could
help. Sometimes, it is very "civically engaged" Americans who stand
in the way of these reforms: union leaders; school board members
and their most active constituents; single-issue pressure groups;
and communities that organize (for example) to preserve their own
neighborhood's schools even when enrollments have shrunk.
I am a parent
in the District of Columbia Public Schools, where more than $13,000
is spent per child, yet the results at the school level are often
terrible--and highly inequitable. As I watch our new Chancellor,
Michelle Rhee, struggle to close some schools and to increase accountability,
I see a gifted and committed managerial expert fighting for a worthy
cause against civic and political institutions that have failed
our kids.
Thus I understand
the argument for managerial expertise. But here is the lesson from
my field that I most want HSG to understand. Civic participation,
like economic participation, has become much more sophisticated
and effective since the 1960s. Civil society, like the market, is
an innovative sector. The old models of participation--local elections
with low turnout, defensive public sector unions, partisan competition,
and "NIMBY" ("Not in My Back Yard") citizens' organizations--are
clearly flawed. I would not try to revive civic participation by
opening more positions to direct popular election or by betting
on unions or parties (although they have roles to play in the overall
civic ecosystem).
Instead, I would
invite you to consider some of the newer alternatives. ...
- In Bridgeport,
CT, according to a recent study by the Public Agenda Foundation,
deliberative forums of citizens launched a renaissance in the
public school system, marked by better policies, more efficient
management, ongoing public engagement, and improved outcomes for
kids
- In Chicago,
according to Archon Fung's analysis, citizens and police collaborate
on crime prevention at the "beat" level, achieving substantial
improvements in public safety.
- In Seattle,
according to Carmen Sirianni's research, a highly decentralized
planning process has allowed citizens to work with professionals
to create a technically impressive and coherent city plan.
- Nearly 4,000
New Orleanians (including displaced citizens) participated in
deliberative forums organized by AmericaSpeaks, generating the
Unified New Orleans Plan.
- The Project
for Public Spaces has worked in 2,000 communities "to improve
parks, markets, streets, transit stations, libraries and countless
other places, using a citizen-centered approach called Placemaking
to design lively, sociable, beautiful public spaces and to revitalize
communities."
- The Industrial
Areas Foundation represents a new form of community organizing,
well analyzed by Mark R. Warren. Instead of defining a community's
problems in ideological terms and advocating predefined solutions,
IAF encourages open-ended discussions and the development of constructive
relationships across lines of race, institution, class, and ideology.
IAF often achieves strikingly tangible results, such as the construction
of 2,900 townhouses in Brooklyn, NY and the founding of charter
schools in several cities.
- According
to the World Bank, communities in several countries have cut corruption
and waste dramatically by giving citizens power to influence public
budgets and track state expenditures.
These examples
indicate that it is not just the raw amount of citizen participation
that matters, but also the quality of citizens' work and the diversity
of civic networks. Those factors can be measured (albeit somewhat
crudely), with survey questions about people's political participation,
membership in groups, and trust for fellow citizens and local institutions.
The combination of these factors has been called "social capital."
Social capital
correlates powerfully with economic opportunity and growth:
- The world's
most effective national governments and competitive economies
also boast the highest levels of social capital as measured by
questions in the World Values Survey.
- At the state
level in the United States, Harvard's Robert Putnam has shown
that social capital correlates powerfully with high school graduation
rates, SAT scores, and other indicators of educational success.
"States where citizens meet, join, vote, and trust in unusual
measure boast consistently higher educational performance than
states where citizens are less engaged with civic and community
life." Putnam finds that such engagement is "by far" a bigger
correlate of educational outcomes than is spending on education,
teachers' salaries, class size, or demographics.
- And at the
local level, our healthiest, most prosperous municipalities are
also the cities with the highest rates of associational membership
and trust.
Thus, as I reflect
on Chancellor Rhee's efforts to reform the school system that educates
my own daughter (and employs my wife), I wish her luck and I endorse
her strategy, as far as it goes. But I do not believe that Washington,
DC will ever provide excellent schools for all our youth--public,
charter, or private--until the quality and quantity of public involvement
improves. More generally, I do not believe that we can see a "high
opportunity society" until we learn to tap citizens' energies and
talents in the nonprofit and public sectors as well as the market.
For those who
have a practical interest in innovative forms of civic participation,
useful portals include the Civic
Practices Network, the Democracy
Helpline, and the November
Fifth Coalition.
Peter Levine
is director of CIRCLE
and blogs at www.peterlevine.ws/mt
Hope Street
Group represents a new generation of professionals, executives,
entrepreneurs, and leaders that believes economic opportunity is
the key to achieving the American Dream. For more info: www.hopestreetgroup.org.
|
|
Trading
Tips for Turbulent Times.
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks list.
 |
| Credit:
www.mazell.com. Film and Video Production, Advertising Photography,
562-866-7662. |
The Hot
News lists below feature 39 companies earning great gains, versus
just sixteen that are headed in the opposite direction. 48%
of the companies featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and
2005 – 25 out of 52 companies -- DOUBLED from the time we listed
them in our feature article to the time when I took the company
off of the Hot News on Cool Stocks list, and the majority of the
remaining 52% well outperformed the marketplace. (See the chart
in the article, "25
of Our Companies Have Doubled," from volume 4, issue
4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
3 out
of 5 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year have posted up to 9000%
gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively. MySpace, my 2006 Company of
the Year, has been a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders.
Only OSI Pharmaceuticals, my 2005 Company of the Year, has
lost money. So three out of five are superperformers, one
is performing well above the market and one is down. That’s the
kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street. (I launched
my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company
of the Year on 1.1.03.)
Additionally,
the market performance of the companies that are featured in my
Hot News on Cool Stocks list has kept me at the top of over 830
A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com.
I’ve repeatedly occupied the #1 position. TipsTraders.com listed
me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, in 2006 and 2007.
Check out
the performance of our featured companies between Oct. 2006 and
June 2007! 4 out of 9 companies – almost half – doubled or more.
|
Suntech
Power Holdings
|
Oct
2006
|
+160%
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
Nov
2006
|
+103%
|
|
Gap Stores
|
December
2006
|
-14%
|
|
Suntech
Power Holdings
|
2007
Company of the Year
|
+96%
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
February
2007
|
+103%
|
|
Wisdom
Tree (ETFs)
|
March
2007
|
-67%
|
|
World
Water & Solar
|
April
2007
|
+163%
|
|
Trina
Solar
|
May 2007
|
-4%
|
|
Novastar
Financial (short)
|
June 2007
|
-93% (we
expected it to lose $)
|
|
TOTAL
Avg. GAINS
|
|
+70.3%
|
Current
Economic Conditions Commentary: Trading Tips for Turbulent Time
Back
in 2002, when I launched NataliePace.com, a group of my friends
came to me begging for me to teach them what I knew. They had taken
a beating in the DOT COM BUST, losing up to 70 percent of their
portfolios in just two short years. These are the kinds of losses
that prevent people from retiring and the fact is that you don’t
need a crystal ball to avoid being that over-exposed. So, please
read the article, "Recession-Proof Your Portfolio," in
this ezine, contact your certified financial planner and, together,
enact those bullet points that seem most appropriate for you, considering
your long term goals.
Though the average
annual gains in the U.S. stock market for the last 25 years have
been over 12 percent, there can be NEGATIVE RETURNS (or losses)
in any one year. (Yes, the annual U.S. stock market gains for the
last 25 years, including the 2000-2002 recession, the volatile 2007-2008
trading years and even the 1987-1992 period of high national debt,
averages out to 12.4 percent every year, source: Hulbert’s
Financial Digest.) Recessions tend to be the years that those losses
occur, so, yes, you are right to be concerned right now, and now,
more than ever, it pays to get up to date information from a trusted
and respected financial news source. I am proud and happy to have
become the most trusted name in financial news and one of the most
successful stock pickers since the inception of my business, and
I’m here to tell you that AVOIDING LOSSES and over-exposure to stocks
is the most important strategy in 2008.
You can’t lose
with having a percent equal to your age safe – i.e. out of the marketplace.
And, if you do that, you can still have a small percent of your
at-risk, equity holdings for your Stocks On Steroids account, aka
your trading portfolio. Read the "Recession-Proof Your Portfolio"
article in this ezine for tips on how to protect your nest egg in
turbulent times.
The tips below
are designed to help you with your trading portfolio – that small
percentage of your nest egg where you take on greater risk for potentially
higher returns. These strategies are not at all appropriate for
the bulk of your nest egg, where the majority of your retirement
plan holdings should be allocated across various assets, where you
take a long term view, tithe regularly and employ a strategy for
achieving your life goals and a road map to get there, which has
been carefully designed with the assistance of a reputable certified
financial planner. You should not trade your nest egg. That is like
juggling eggs, with the most likely outcome that you crack too many.
And now, with
no further adieu or disclaimers, my trading tips for turbulent markets…
- Take your
profits early and often. You know how you can enjoy a mediocre
movie, simply because you had very low expectations that it would
be any good at all? Have low expectations for the returns of your
investments, and then, when you do experience unexpected gains,
sell them for a profit. Don’t be in a hurry to reinvest right
away, and don’t be over-concerned about tax implications. A gain
is a gain, even if you have to pay taxes on it.
- Sit on
the sidelines until September. 50% of the gains in the stock
market are made, typically, in the last three months of the year
(although that wasn’t the case in 2007). Keep a shopping
list of your favorite stocks on hand, and don’t be in a hurry
to buy in before we get through the summer doldrums of July and
August 2008.
- Trade
tax-free. You can achieve an additional gain simply by doing
your short-term trading in a tax-free account. There are many
options for these accounts, including IRAs, Roth IRAs, SEP IRAs,
health savings accounts, college savings accounts and more. Later
on, you may be able to take a loan against your account without
incurring penalty, if you need access to the funds before retirement,
college or a health need. So, if you haven’t already set up your
IRA or Roth IRA or SEP IRA or Health Savings Account or any other
tax-free account that you might qualify for, now’s the time to
talk to your broker about what options are available to you.
- Turn off
the television and ignore 98% of the buy recommendations that
come from friends, families and even brokers. The pundits’
and brokers’ livelihoods depends upon their ability to try and
come up with some winners in tough times. The problem is that
most are not good at picking winners, even when the market is
working in their favor, and no one is keeping track of the average
returns of the ideas they have. Your friends will try to tell
you how cheap certain stocks are simply because the price has
been going down for a few months. This could be the beginning
of a tough period that is not predicted to get better for a few
years. Don’t be in a hurry to buy anything this early in the game.
I watched
the markets drop from March 2000 until August 2001 before investing
again,
and made over 200% gains between August 2001 and the end of December
2001. My "broker" had recommended Enron, Global Crossing,
AOL, Japan and more losers as early as August of 2000, which would
have KILLED my entire investment account. Who cares if the money
markets were only returning 4% for the eighteen months prior to
my mother lode in late 2001? Fact was: cash was the top-performing
asset during that period.
- Find
companies that offer innovative solutions for big problems. (But
do 100 times the research before investing.) Taser International,
Google and Myspace, three of the best performing companies in
my stock ezine, each came up with a breakthrough solution for
a major challenge, during a challenging time for the larger stock
markets. Taser International stun guns armed police officers with
a "less-lethal" weapon with which to subdue aggressive
criminals, at a time when police homicides were being scrutinized
under a national debate. Taser’s massive acceleration of orders
began in 2002 (during the recession). Wall Street caught on in
2004 and made Taser one of the most talked-about stocks on the
cable shows and financial bulletin boards, with gains upwards
of 9000% at its peak. Google went on to become one of the largest
publicly traded companies in the world, while Myspace boasts over
100 million registered users -- just behind Skype in growth on
the Internet.
- Stay liquid.
Remember the rule of thumb that says you should always have
six months of living expenses in liquid assets. Suze Orman makes
a good point that you shouldn’t put all of your cash in one long-term
CD. Instead, she recommends that you stagger the maturity dates
of multiple CDs so that you’re never in a penalty position if
you need to withdraw some funds. The money market allocation in
your brokerage account is another interest-bearing way of keeping
cash on hand (with bond-like returns in a rising interest rate
environment). Consider these strategies as building up on cash
reserves so that you can go on a buying spree later, when everyone
else is wounded on the sidelines from the beating they’ve taken
in the real estate and stock markets. If you have a strong cash
position and a great credit rating, then you’ll be in great shape
to pick up bargains in real estate and stocks going forward, and
that is where real returns are made – when the markets are poised
to grow in your favor.
- Window
shop and track pricing. I watched (on the sidelines) as Akamai
dropped from over $300 per share in 2000 to under $5.00 per share
in 2002. This was a stock that my smartest friends were completely
in love with. I also watched as LoudCloud plummeted from a $12
Initial Public Offering price in late 1999 to $6.00 in 2000, and
then down to the $1.00/per share price range in 2001. When great
companies trade for a value that’s a great time to buy.
- Don’t
chase returns. Don’t assume that things will get better next
month. Lock in gains and take losses early, positioning yourself
to reinvest at a more opportune price and buy-in point down the
road. Take up a hobby other than watching the stock prices drop.
- Buy low;
sell high. Easy to say; hard to do. Patience is the key. Buying
low is about as appetizing as eating rocks, and it sits hard in
your stomach for as long as the share price lingers near the bottom.
Don’t be in a hurry. Once you experience the euphoria of buying
low and selling high for great gains, you’ll never feel as though
you’re eating rocks again when you’re picking up bargains.
- Stick
to the "knitting." Your best protection against
recessions, terrorism and other natural and man-made disasters
is to not be over-concentrated in any one asset class – not real
estate, stocks, bonds, gold or backpack rockets. Remember that
cash can be the best performing asset in many market corrections
and affords an easy way to stabilize a portion of your portfolio
while reducing risk. Cash is better than gold because it also
affords you the immediate possibility of buying low. (In mid-2007—cash
in the money markets was achieving bond-like returns with very
little risk.) With gold, on the other hand, you may be tempted
to wait for a higher sell price or some other market related event.
You never want to be all in or all out of the stock market, so
this isn’t a call to sell everything. Merely to weight toward
safer investments, while continuing to adhere to your long-term
strategy, which should take your age, your risk tolerance, your
goals and more into consideration.
- Learn
options. If you don’t already know how to trade options, now’s
the time to get smart – in a fictitious scenario first. The top
performers on this stock newsletter are on the Cooling Off list,
and every company mentioned there has gone down in share price,
meaning if you’d placed a put, you’re likely "in the money."
The Chicago
Board Options Exchange has an excellent Investor Learning
Center for your education. Go to cboe.com
for more information.
I’m not ever
happy when my Cooling Off List (the list that features companies
that are expected to decline in share price) is the top performer
of the stock newsletter, but every company listed there is declining
in share price. Even if you aren’t interested in trading options,
and learning how to place puts, you should at least be reading the
Cooling Off list to determine if you have those stocks in your mutual
funds (and to choose some Exchange Traded Funds that are not invested
in those stocks instead).If you don’t know how to check to see what
stocks you hold in your mutual funds, then you are in dire need
of education now.
Getting wise
about investing allows you to become a part of the solution of the
challenges in your own life and the world at large. If you take
a few smart steps now, you’ll avoid a lot of heartache, pain and
regret later.
Peace = Prosperity.
I hope you’ll
join us at the very limited enrollment for my Get Rich and Healthy
Retreat in May 2008. Get more information on the home page at NataliePace.com.
Natalie
Market Report:
The Federal Open
Market Committee decided on September 18, 2007 to lower its target
for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4-3/4 percent. The
big, fat rate cut thrilled investors. The stock market immediately
rallied on the news. For Halloween, the Feds decided to give investors
some candy, with another 25 basis point reduction in the Fed Fund
Rate. Investors fell in love with stocks and the markets soared
on the news. Continued histrionic headlines and inflated statistics
on the severity and pervasiveness of the subprime problems spooked
investors in November, for the worst sell-off of the year. The Feds
responded by cutting rates again in December. The rate currently
stands at 4-1/4 percent. (FYI: We went to press before the January
29-30, 2008 Fed meeting. For up to date information, go directly
to the FederalReserve.gov
website.)
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2006
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Wednesday, 1.2.2008
|
Friday, 1.18.2008
|
Gains 2-year
, 1-year & 1 mo.
|
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 12,099.30
|
+12%, -3% & -7%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,243.74
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 2,340.02
|
+4%, -3% & -10%
|
|
S&P: 1,268.80
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 1,325.19
|
+4%, -6% & -8%
|
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Interest
Rates: The Big, Fat Rate Cut Continues! The Feds knocked
the rates down on the past 3 consecutive meetings, in September,
October and December. The federal funds rate is currently at
4-1/4%. According to Federal Open Market Committee Chairman
Ben Bernanke, speaking on January 10, 2008, "The financial
situation remains fragile." (If you haven’t read my message
above and taken it seriously, you should reread it and consider
coming to my retreat in May 2008 where you will learn to protect
your assets in case of a recession. Remember the pain of 2000-2002,
and consider that you need more than a Bandaid this time around.)
- FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the December 11, 2007 FOMC meeting for yourself?
You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available
online. Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read!
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2007-2008 calendar is: January
29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 18, 2008 (Tuesday),
April 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 24-25, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
August 5, 2008 (Tuesday), September 16, 2008 (Tuesday), October
28-29, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 16, 2008 (Tuesday).
The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee decided to increase
the number of 2-day sessions from two to four in 2007 is an
indicator of the concern in the economy at this juncture.
- Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check
out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There
are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, economists, respected money gurus, real estate
veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates of the mid-month
Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the information on the February
28th Premium Subscriber Telecom with Natalie Pace.
Get more information on how to best use our articles in the
FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home
page of NataliePace.com.
- Survey
Results:
What’s
the best gift for Valentine’s Day? Express yourself with our
online surveys.
Bottom Line:
NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. Your investments and portfolio
should take into account your age, your retirement goals, your risk
tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your
portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek
to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert,
don’t bet the farm on the stock market.
NataliePace.com
is NOT a brokerage and doesn’t operate or act like one. We are an
online media service with a mission of providing the news and information
you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal
prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
The
Hot News on Cool Stocks List
Full
disclosure: I have listed the companies that I currently own under
the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot Stocks
List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your
certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment
strategy.
Highlighted
Companies (Hot List):
U.S.
Gold (UXG)
WisdomTree
(WSDT)
Recent
Additions:
American
Superconductor, Energy Conversion Devices and Zoltec were
added on December 3, 2007. None of these companies are highlighted
as being in "buying range" this month – largely due to
the uncertainty in the stock marketplace, more than within the company.
Recent
Deletions:
Gap was deleted
on January 14, 2007 with negative performance. Jet Blue was deleted
on December 3, 2007 with negative performance. Disney (+31%), National
Health Investors (flat), News Corp. (+33%), Opsware (+690%), Sirius
(mixed) and Time Warner (flat performance) were all deleted on December
26, 2007. See below for details. (The details on each deleted company
are listed below the Hot News list.)
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
| Company |
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
1.18.08 |
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
Altair Nanotechnology
RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$3.11
|
$3.26
|
$5.45
$2.48
|
+5%
|
|
Read the Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, iss. 6. The
price was up sharply on unusually high volume on 10.23.07.
The U.S. Senate approved a military funding budget that included
funding for two cutting-edge nanotechnology research and development
projects that Altairnano is conducting, providing funding
for a staff of 90 highly qualified individuals in Reno, according
to Altairnano President and Chief Executive Officer, Alan
J. Gotcher, PhD. Completed a $40 million private placement
of its common stock to Al Yousuf LLC, at $3.50 per share,
on 11.30.07. Altair supplies the batteries to Phoenix's advanced
battery-electric, zero-emission Sports Utility Truck, which
can travel at freeway-speeds while carrying five passengers
and a full payload. Phoenix already has 500 orders and just
signed a letter of intent to start producing cars in Mexico
for delivery to Mexico, Latin America and India.
|
|
American Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$24.71
|
$18.31
|
$32.04
$9.20
|
-26%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, iss.
12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI),
Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature
Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more
energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables
electric utilities to replace multiple conventional copper
cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground
real estate available for other uses – including future power
upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar
annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in
the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells.
American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $180 million,
with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC
expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to
50% of sales in fiscal year 2007.
|
|
Apple Computer
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$85.38
($83.93 on 2.27.07)
|
$161.36
|
$200.00
$62.70
|
+89% &
+92%
|
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
Next earnings report will be on January 22, 2008 at 5:00 p.m.
ET (after markets close). Spectacular earnings reports could
temporarily boost an otherwise drab stock marketplace. We’ll
look to close out this fabulous performer by mid-February
2008.
Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt is
on the Apple board of directors, as is Nobel Laureate winner,
Al Gore. Added Avon Chairman/CEO Andrea Jung to the board
on January 7, 2008. The craze over the iPhone, iPod and all
things Apple, and the clout that Jobs is gaining with his
alliances with Disney and Google should keep Apple at the
top of the technology performers over the next few years at
minimum. Apple is a company you’re going to want to own –
and everyone wishes they’d had the prescience to buy in at
a better price. On 10.22.07, Apple announced revenue of $6.22
billion and net quarterly profit of $904 million, or $1.01
per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.84
billion and net quarterly profit of $542 million, or $.62
per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was
33.6 percent, up from 29.2 percent in the year-ago quarter.
International sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's
revenue.
Apple shipped 2,164,000 Macintosh(R)
computers, representing 34 percent growth over the year-ago
quarter and exceeding the previous quarterly record for Mac(R)
shipments by 400,000. The Company sold 10,200,000 iPods during
the quarter, representing 17 percent growth over the year-ago
quarter. Quarterly iPhone(TM) sales were 1,119,000, bringing
cumulative fiscal 2007 sales to 1,389,000.
"We are very pleased to have generated
over $24 billion in revenue and $3.5 billion in net income
in fiscal 2007," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We're looking
forward to a strong December quarter as we enter the holiday
season with Apple's best products ever."
"Apple ended the fiscal year with
$15.4 billion in cash and no debt," said Peter Oppenheimer,
Apple's CFO. "Looking ahead to the first quarter of fiscal
2008, we expect revenue of about $9.2 billion and earnings
per diluted share of about $1.42."
|
|
AU Optronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
AUO
|
$16.92
|
$17.85
|
$22.48
$12.73
|
+5%
|
|
On Sept. 6, 2007, AUO announced
another record high, with revenue up 9.9% from the previous
month. On a year-over-year comparison, August 2007 revenues
increased significantly by 89%. Shipments of large-sized panels(a)
used in desktop monitor, notebook PC, LCD TV and other applications
for August also set a new record of 7.23 million units, a
5.7% increase from July 2007. Shipments of small-and-medium-sized
panels broke the record as well and presented a 22.1% increase
from the previous month, to 14.59 million units. Announced
3Q 2007 earnings on 10.22.07 of US$4.2 billion consolidated
revenue and consolidated US$691 million net income (unaudited).
Large-sized panel shipments increased by 14.3% to 22.26 million
from 2Q 2007, while shipments of small and medium-sized panel
amounted to 40.70 million with a 26.3% Q over Q increase,
both once again set record high for the company's single-quarter
unit shipment. AU Optronics Corp. ("AUO") is one of the top
three largest manufacturers* of large-size thin film transistor
liquid crystal display panels ("TFT-LCD"), with approximately
20.2%* of global market share. The company is based out of
Taiwan. Spectacular earnings reports from Apple and Google
could temporarily boost an otherwise drab stock marketplace.
We’ll look to close out this performer by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
C
|
$50.38
|
$24.45
|
$57.00
$29.34
|
-51%
|
|
Refer to the M&A
Mania article
in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup’s appeal. Citigroup,
like all of the financial services industry, will continue
to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that might be
attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect wild
gains in the short term with this company, and there could
be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again, the price
could be attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus horizon,
not if you’re looking to post great gains in the next 12-24
months. Spectacular earnings reports from Apple and Google
could temporarily boost an otherwise drab stock marketplace.
We’ll look to close out this underperformer by mid-February
2008.
Citigroup announced on May 10,
2007, that Citigroup China would roll-out two new investment
products -- Structured Investment Accounts -- for the Chinese
consumer that would allow him/her to invest in equities or
currencies, with a principal protection feature. Just a few
years ago, all banks in China were state-owned enterprises.
Citigroup was first mover in the Chinese consumer equity marketplace.
Purchased AkBank (in Turkey) on 1.09.07. Akbank currently
has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a premier, full-service
retail, commercial, corporate and private bank in Turkey,
with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6 billion and a
deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the world’s third largest
bank by assets and the nation’s largest financial institution.
Citigroup acquired servicing rights for $45 billion worth
of loans formerly held in ACC’s Ameriquest company. Terms
of the deal were not disclosed. Citigroup announced on November
3, 2007, that Charles Prince, Chairman and CEO, will leave
the company. Robert Rubin has been named Chairman of the Board.
Sir Win Bischoff has been named acting Chief Executive Officer.
Citi will review fourth quarter and full-year 2007 results
on Tuesday, January 15, 2008, at 8:30 AM (EST).
On Oct. 15, 2007, Citigroup reported
net income for the 2007 third quarter of $2.21 billion, or
$0.44 per share, a decline of 60% from the prior-year quarter.
|
|
Conergy
Based out of Germany
RISK: MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
CEYHF
|
$44.75
$27.15
(1.18.08)
|
$27.15
|
$96.14
$26.20
|
-39%
|
|
See the Wind
Power article
in vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech
Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems
integration. Also, since this is a German company that is
trading near it’s 52-week low, it may have a different outlook
than American companies that are trading at a high.
We’ll provide more news at the
2.15.08 mid-month report.
|
|
Eastern Europe -- U.S. Global Investors
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$45.64
|
$59.54
$23.02
|
+35%
|
|
Vanguard seems to be in the right
countries, and within those countries, in the right growing
sectors. See vol.
2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference. We’re keeping this on the list
because as investors rebalance and get spooked by the US markets,
their brokers may put them into international funds, like
EUROX. Will monitor closely over the next few weeks. Spectacular
earnings reports from Apple and Google could temporarily boost
an otherwise drab stock marketplace. We’ll look to close
out this performer by mid-February 2008.
|
|
eBay
RISK: LOW
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$29.75
|
$28.33
|
$40.73
$22.83
|
-5%
|
|
Announces earnings on 1.23.2008.
Keeping eBay on the list with Apple to see if there is a mini-rally
on good earnings news at the end of this month. See the articles,
"eBay’s
Skype Outpaces News Corp’s MySpace," in volume
3, issue 9, "Executives
of the Year"
in January 2007, which featured CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss.
1). Spectacular earnings reports from Apple and Google could
temporarily boost an otherwise drab stock marketplace. We’ll
look to close out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Echelon
RISK: MED/HIGH
|
Yes
|
ELON
|
$20.04
$16.13 (12.14.07)
|
$14.28
|
$32.49
$7.19
|
-29% &
-11%
|
|
Read the article, "Green
San Jose Company,"
in vol. 4, iss. 8. Governor Schwarzenegger (CA) took Secretary
General of the U.N. Ban Ki-Moon on a tour of Echelon’s HQ
in Silicon Valley the week before ELON confirmed an order
from Russia valued at $35 million. What other orders could
come into this company that reported sales of $26.7 million
in the 2nd quarter, over 19.4 million a year ago. On July
10, 2007, Echelon signed a contract with McDonald's to help
it reduce energy costs and improve efficiency. Reported 3rd
quarter results on 10.23.07 of $24.7 million in revenues compared
to revenues of $13.3 million for the same period in 2006.
The GAAP net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2007
was $5.4 million, or $0.14 cents per share, compared to net
loss of $6.3 million a year ago. "We are still on track
to achieve non-GAAP profitability in the fourth quarter. We
believe our strategies have positioned us well for the remainder
of the year and for 2008," said Ken Oshman, Echelon's CEO
and Chairman. "Our infrastructure product line did not
grow as expected, especially in the Americas – and it will
receive special attention in coming months."
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace. We’ll look to close out this stock by
mid-February 2008.
|
|
Energy Conversion Devices
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
ENER
|
$26.50
|
$23.79
|
$40.10
$22.26
|
-10%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12. Reports 2Q results on 2.7.08. Let’s see
what the news is! Spectacular earnings reports from Apple
and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab stock
marketplace. We’ll look to close out this stock by mid-February
2008.
|
|
Genentech
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
$72.60
$68.06 (12.26.07)
|
$68.77
|
$89.41
$65.35
|
+409%
-5% &
+1%
|
|
Reported 4Q and Full Year earnings
on Monday, 1.14.08. U.S. product sales of $8.540 billion,
a 19 percent increase over U.S. product sales of $7.169 billion
in 2006. Full Year Net income was $2.7 billion, compared to
$2.1 billion a year ago.
DNA is a Great Blue Chip Hold for
your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in DNA-based
cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need
for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply to
the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this popular
#2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs. Cancer
drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has appx.
$8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin and Rituxan each
rang up $2.3 billion in annual sales in 2007. Tarceva is rocketing
up the sales charts, with sales of $417 million in 2007 and
an expansion of use into small cell lung cancer.
DNA held up quite well during the
mid-January stock sell-off, however, with continued pressure
on the markets, there might still be a better buy-in point
later this year. Spectacular earnings reports from Apple and
Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab stock marketplace
in mid-February. We’ll look to close out this stock by
mid-February 2008.
|
|
Google (Green)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$600.25
|
$747.24
$437.00
|
+606%
|
|
Announces 4Q results on Jan.
31, 2008. May get a bounce, along with Apple’s presumably
positive results. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term
portfolio. See my original article, "Google:
the People’s IPO,"
in NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 1, iss. 48. Owns YouTube.com,
one of the most popular sites on the web, which got hit with
a billion dollar lawsuit from Viacom on 3.13.07. Dr. Eric
Schmidt was one of our Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. The growth continues to be amazing, and the share price
continues to be amazingly volatile! The savvy day-trader would
buy on disappointment and sell on hot headlines. The long-term
investor would buy at the 52-week low and hold to will to
the kids. (Notice that Google is NOT highlighted and is not
considered to be a good buy right now.)
Google reported revenues of $4.23
billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2007, an increase
of 57% compared to the third quarter of 2006 and an increase
of 9% compared to the second quarter of 2007. Traffic Acquisition
Costs totaled $1.22 billion, or 29% of advertising revenues.
GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2007 was $1.07 billion
as compared to $925 million in the second quarter of 2007.
Google currently estimates stock-based compensation charges
for grants to employees prior to October 1, 2007 to be approximately
$801 million for 2007. Dilution is expected to be capped at
2%. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were
$13.1 billion at the end of September 2007. There is a laundry
list of insider selling going on at Google. We’ll do a closer
evaluation as it gets closer to the annual report, which was
released on March 1, last year. Until then, if you’re in the
money, we’re still in the Santa Rally. If you’re thinking
to buy, it’s very, very high. When you attach a 54 price to
earnings ratio to a big, fat $216 billion company in a challenging
economic environment, there are more ifs in the investment
than you might be aware of. Google’s great, but so are Ferraris,
and you can buy one for half the price if you wait and time
your buy. Never pay retail!
On a worldwide basis, Google employed
15,916 full-time employees, up from 13,786 full time employees
as of June 30, 2007 – all enjoying the Google 20 (pounds you
gain from all of the free food provided by the company). As
part of their "Do no evil" plan, Google has gone
green, installing solar panels at HQs.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$9.68
|
$9.40
|
$14.55
$2.52
|
-3%
|
|
Announces earnings Jan. 22,
2008. Read "Solar
Giants
Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 10. Contracted to build
a polysilicon facility in Idaho and supply Suntech, Sanyo
and Solar-Fabrik. Exiting the fuel cell business, in favor
of solar, according to the fiscal 1st Q 2008 earnings
report. The planned polysilicon manufacturing facility is
still in the financing stages. According to Dustin Shindo,
in the Hoku earnings report of 10.23.07, Hoku "received
letters of credit of $25 million and $45 million for two of
our polysilicon customers, Global Expertise Wafer Division,
a subsidiary of Solar-Fabrik Group, and Suntech, respectively,
to secure their prepayment obligations to us if we achieve
various milestones in the construction and operation of our
planned polysilicon plant." The $13 million line of credit
with Bank of Hawaii has allowed Hoku to commit capital to
the design and engineering of the plant, to purchase long
lead-time items such as the reactors, and to stay on schedule
for our planned 2009 product deliveries, according to a company
press release. Hoku Materials plans to build and equip a polysilicon
production facility capable of producing up to 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. Hoku Materials
estimates the total cost to construct and equip the polysilicon
facility with an annual capacity of 2,500 metric tons will
be approximately $300 million. Assuming the financing can
be obtained, Hoku anticipates the availability of polysilicon
beginning in the first half of calendar year 2009. Announced
that Merrill Lynch will provide $185 million in financing
for the construction and start-up of its new polysilicon plant,
as long as it secures $35 million in additional funds, on
December 5, 2007. Stock jumped after that report.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. Even though this stock
has tremendous upside potential, especially as it nears its
2009 manufacturing production date, we’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008, and re-add it later in
the year, after the markets have had their season of volatility.
|
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$19.13
|
$19.00
|
$27.99
$16.84
|
flat
|
|
Announces 4Q earnings on 1.15.08.
Intel Corporation announced record fourth-quarter revenue
of $10.7 billion, operating income of $3 billion, net income
of $2.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of 38 cents.
Full Year net income was $7 billion, compared to $5 billion
a year ago. Great results. Wall Street yawned. Has $7.3 billion
cash on hand.
See "Apple
Chips," article
in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices
in products and price. Announces earnings on 1.15.08. AMD
is fighting back in court and by slashing costs. The price
war is tough on both, but easier for Goliath to win.
A Good Blue Chip long term hold for your portfolio, with dividends.
On 10.16.07, Intel announced 3rd quarter earnings:
revenue of $10.1 billion, operating income of $2.2 billion,
net income of $1.9 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of
31 cents. "A combination of great products, strong and growing
worldwide demand, and operational efficiency from our ongoing
restructuring efforts led to record third-quarter revenue
and a 64-percent year-over-year gain in operating income,"
said Intel President and CEO Paul Otellini. "Looking forward,
we see each of these elements continuing to improve into the
fourth quarter." Meanwhile, in the third quarter, AMD
reported an operating loss of $226 million, and a net loss
of $396 million, or $0.71 per share. AMD completed a $1.5
billion convertible debt offering and used the net proceeds,
together with available cash, to repay in full the $1.7 billion
outstanding balance of the term loan used to acquire ATI.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
DIVIDENDS!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
JNJ
|
$61.65
$59.99
|
$66.29
|
$69.41
$59.77
|
+7.5% & +10%
|
|
Read the article, "Bionic
Baby Boomers,"
in vol. 4, iss. 7. Johnson & Johnson is a mega-cap corporation
with many products, and a small presence in the hip resurfacing
arena. Growth is 16% annually. Stable, dividend-paying Blue
Chip.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Krispy Kreme
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
$2.59 (12.3.07)
|
$2.32
|
$13.83
$2.91
|
-77%
-10%
|
|
Have you visited the Coffee Bean
and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in
the pastry case? KKD is expanding into Asia – namely Macao,
the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. There are
currently approximately 296 Krispy Kreme stores and 99 satellites
operating system-wide in 41 U.S. states, Australia, Canada,
Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, the Philippines,
the Republic of South Korea, United Arab Emirates and the
United Kingdom. If you love their product, KKD’s CEO has proven
to be a turnaround specialist, and he’s done a great job in
the past. KKD caught up with all of their SEC filings as of
1.29.07, and is looking to the future now. Lynn Crump-Caine
(a 30-year McDonald’s veteran) and C. Stephen Lynn (former
Chairman and CEO of Shoney’s and Sonic Corp.) were recently
added as directors. Missed analyst earnings estimates on 9.15.07
for second straight quarter. Revenues for the second quarter
of fiscal 2008 decreased 7.5% to $104.1 million compared to
$112.5 million in the second quarter of last year. Company
Stores revenues decreased 4.7% to $75.3 million, Franchise
revenues were flat at $5.1 million and KKD Supply Chain revenues
decreased 16.8% to $23.7 million. KKD will announce earnings
on 12/6/2007.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
WFR
|
$35.30 (11.11)
|
$65.83
|
$96.08
$31.94
|
+86%
|
|
4Q earnings conference call
on 1.24.08 at 5:30 p.m. ET. MEMC was added to the S&P
500 in August of 2007. Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and
MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers
accordingly. On 10.25, the company reported earnings: 3Q net
sales were $472.8 million, which represents an increase of
7.3% from 3rd quarter 2006 net sales of $ increase of 15.9%.
Net income was $151.5 million. MEMC will receive $2.5 billion
to $3 billion in revenue from sales of the wafers over the
10-year period from Taiwan’s Gintech Energy (solar). MEMC
also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent interest in
Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel of land
of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located within
the Hsinchu Science Park. Supplies silicon ingots to Suntech
Power Holdings, and owns a stake in that company as well.
The CEO has cashed out over $78 million, and plans to continue
to "diversify" his holdings through 2010. Investors
have cashed out over $3 billion. This is colossal insider
selling, however, after decades of solar energy being out
of favor, this may be the first time the investors have been
able to roll out their decades long investments. According
to MEMC’s Chief Executive Officer, Nabeel Gareeb, "Early last
month we announced that a construction incident caused an
abrupt power interruption at our Pasadena polysilicon production
facility. Although the power was quickly recovered, the extended
effects of the incident caused us to lose well over a week's
worth of production, miss our cost projections by the double
digit millions, and delay our expansion. In spite of this
incident and its unanticipated consequences, we are pleased
to report healthy sales and profits during the quarter, and
a strong improvement over the year-ago quarter," said Nabeel
Gareeb, MEMC's Chief Executive Officer. "Cash flow generation
continues to be strong, and cash balances crossed the $1 billion
milestone." Implemented a 500 million share repurchase program
in the 2nd quarter of 2007.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$27.89
|
$41.33
$25.00
|
+124%
|
|
Watch Natalie
Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick
Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO,
won the Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award
(on 6.16.06), NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list
(for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s
Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS
just gave NetGear’s Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The
NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online. It’s a great
product that allows you to connect to Skype and call anyone
worldwide anywhere there is a WiFi signal. An October 2006
report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S.
households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband
phone service by 2010. With all of the promising new products
(Skype phones), and the product alliance with Avaya, NetGear
is poised to continue strong growth. Announced 3Q earnings
on 11.9.07: 3Q 2007 net revenue increased to third
quarter 2007 net revenue increased to $191.7 million, 26%
year- over-year growth. Net income increased to $13.3 million,
as compared to $8 million in the comparable prior year quarter,
66% year-over-year-growth. Net revenue by geography: North
America, 38%; Europe, Middle-East and Africa, 52%; Asia Pacific,
10%. According to Mr. Lo, "Revenue growth was ahead of
our prior guidance led by robust back-to-school sales in North
America, and strong demand in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and
Africa) and Asia Pacific regions. Broadband penetration continues
to increase at a steady pace worldwide among both homes and
small businesses." Expect annual report in late Feb./early
March 2008.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
RISK: HIGH (U.S.)
2005 Company of the Year
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$72.18
$33.00 (4.1.07)
|
$41.25
|
$52.00
$28.68
|
-43% &
+25%
|
|
Expect annual report in late
Feb./early March 2008. NataliePace.com’s 2005
Company of the Year.
Read vol. 1, iss. 56. Announced 3Q 2007 earnings on 10.25.07.
Net income from continuing operations of $35.9 million (or
$0.59 per share) for the three months ended September 30,
2007, compared with net income from continuing operations
of $159,000 (or $0.00 per share) for the third quarter of
2006. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer pill,"
and sales have been exploding. OSIP is a partner of Genentech
(DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application
for other cancers, including lung cancer. Industry sales data
has placed the cancer drug market's value at more than $20
billion annually and it is growing fast. Institutional holdings
of OSIP increased significantly on 11.22.07. Total worldwide
net sales of Tarceva(R) (erlotinib) for 2007, as reported
by Genentech, Inc., were $417 million. The Company reported
total revenues from continuing operations of $100 million
for the third quarter of 2007 compared to revenues of $57
million for the third quarter of 2006, an increase of 77%.
|
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.24
$1.04
(9.1.07)
|
$1.45
|
$2.50
$.98
|
+17% & +39%
|
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. Reported 3Q 2007 results on November
15, 2007. Who are SatCon’s customers? On June 27, 2007, SatCon
announced that its PowerGate(R) commercial grade inverters
had been installed as an integral part of Google's corporate
headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system
is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the United
States. On 11.13.07, announced 3Q earnings. Revenues increased
147% over last year to $21.0 million. Losses from Operations
declined to $1.2 million from $3.5 million in 2006. Sales
Order backlog was approximately $47 million at the end of
the quarter, a 78% increase over last year. SATC expects to
achieve annual revenues for 2007 on the order of $55 million
compared to 2006 annual revenues of $34 million, an increase
of over 60%.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Smith & Nephew
London, England
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SNN
|
$60.94
$57.17
(9.16.07)
|
$61.12
|
$67.84
$47.05
|
flat &
+7%
|
|
Read the article in vol.
4, issue. 7.
Announced earnings on 11.1.07. Orthopaedic Reconstruction
outperformed the market with strong growth in hip revenues.
the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing System drove growth above
market rates, but not enough to justify a 35 price to earnings
ratio in a declining marketplace (even though hip replacements
are exploding). According to David Illingworth, Chief Executive
of Smith & Nephew, "Smith and Nephew are the first
movers in the fast-growing US hip resurfacing marketplace."
The company is based out of London, England, and with a market
cap of $10.57 billion is a good diversification strategy for
your portfolio, in addition to having a piece of an exploding
marketplace. Price-to-cash-flow ratio well below industry
average on 9.16.07. Buyback of 200,000 shares announced on
1.11.08.
Withdrew 185 of its BIRMINGHAM
HIP* Resurfacing System implants following a packaging error
at a subcontractor on Aug. 16, 2007. Smith & Nephew's
investigation confirms that this problem is confined to a
small number of batches. A number of implants have already
been recovered in their packaging. The devices have been distributed
to a number of countries, including the UK and the US. Proactive
notification is a good sign of the moral code of the executive
suite, but bad products can be Lawsuit City if they were implanted.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$42.05
|
$64.84
$20.23
|
+140%
|
|
Money Central notes that the PE
to growth ratio indicates that the stock might be undervalued,
even though it is trading at a Price to Earnings ratio of
71. See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and
vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I
did on the Forbes.com
Video Network.
Sohu was selected as the
official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the
Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Could be some bumps in the
road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately
be worth it. Share price jumped in early July 2007 and has
been strong since! Don’t get sucked into buying at a high
P/E, however, especially in today’s volatile markets.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008. Although it should have
great legs during the summer Olympics, prior to that time,
there could be a lot of downward pressure on the price.
|
|
SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green
& Chinese Co. ADR)
RISK: LOW
2007 Company of the Year
Mainland China
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
$34.01 (1.1.07)
|
$56.96
|
$84.94
$29.25
|
+120% & +68%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 1 for our Company
of the Year article,
which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12 for
our articles on solar energy. On February 21, 2007, Suntech’s
CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable on Climate Change
which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University
in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable brings together
more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders from all regions
of the world. Dr. Shi was named one of TIME magazine's 2007
"Heroes of the Environment," on October 22, 2007, and the
share price has been a rocket ship ever since. Suntech will
supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to
Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection
Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world’s largest
solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider
of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy
a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. Dr. Shi is one of our
Executives
of the Year
in 2007. Read the
article in vol. 4, iss. 1. Suntech picked up more clients
at the 2007 Solar Conference in Long Beach in August 2007,
adding Irvine, Calif.'s Lumeta and Los Gatos, Calif.-based
Akeena Solar. In June 2007, Suntech signed a 10 year supply
deal for polysilicon from Hawaii's Hoku Scientific. Institutional
holdings of STP increased significantly on November 22, 2007.
High P/E Alert!
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008. Although it should have
great legs during the summer Olympics, prior to that time,
there could be a lot of downward pressure on the price.
|
|
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$35.33
|
$40.00
$12.00
|
+70%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and
vol.
2, issue 8 for
articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global
with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU
that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France.
International investing in the right sectors and countries
pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its
category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating
on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund
back in August of 2005!)
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. We’ll look to close
out this stock by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$44.08 &
$43.18 (6.15.07)
|
$36.69
|
$73.06
$17.05
|
-17% &
-15%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
"Green
Hits the Mainstream,"
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for other articles
on solar energy. This is a profitable solar energy company,
based out of China. The international management team is very
strong, as are sales, growth and profitability. Share price
jumped in early July 2007. Institutional holdings increased
significantly on 9.12.07, per MSN.com. Announced 2Q 2007 earnings
on 8.23.07. Net revenues increased 77% over the last quarter
and 160% over the last year to $75.3 million. Net income increased
51.4% over the last quarter and 540% over the last year to
$7.2 million.
|
|
UQM Technologies
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
UQM
|
$3.97
$3.10 (12.5.07)
|
$2.57
|
$5.48
$2.19
|
-35% &
-17%
|
|
Reports 3rd quarter
earnings at the end of Jan. Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. UQM Technologies, Inc. is a developer
and manufacturer of power dense, high efficiency electric
motors, generators and power electronic controllers for the
automotive, aerospace, medical, military and industrial markets.
A major emphasis of the Company is developing products for
the alternative energy technologies sector including propulsion
systems for electric, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric
and fuel cell electric vehicles, under-the-hood power accessories
and other vehicle auxiliaries and distributed power generation
applications. On November 5, 2007, received a $1,046,500 cost-share
contract from the California Energy Commission's Public Interest
Energy Research Program and the U.S. Department of Energy's
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop an
advanced grid-connect inverter under its Advanced Power Electronics
Interface (APEI) Initiative. UQM’s share was $439,000 (42%).
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. Although this company
should have upside growth in 2008, we’ll look closely at whether
we should close out this stock by mid-February 2008, with
the idea of entering back in at a later date in the year.
Look for more news in the Feb. mid-month update.
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$3.02
on
12.14.07
|
$3.33
|
$10.30
$.35
|
-34% &
+10%
|
|
U.S. Gold
is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that
if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t,
you will lose your investment. Very risky. However, with rising
inflation and weakening consumer confidence, investors turn
to gold without really looking. That could mean that U.S.
Gold enjoys a push-up on the general love lust of gold, even
while the company keeps prospecting to determine if they are
actually sitting on a gold mine. Very risky play, with potentially
high rewards.
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview
with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen
in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network.
On December 11, 2007, Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, reported,
"We have assembled an attractive package of assets this year,
encountered newsworthy gold values, and continue to have a
strong treasury heading into 2008."
Rob McEwen
increased his beneficial ownership in the Company to 21.5%
(20,687,427 shares) from 19.8% (18,635,348 shares) on December
4, 2007, through the exercise of Warrants of US Gold Canadian
Acquisition Corporation. This additional investment in US
Gold totals $3,903,107. A company spokesperson reported on
January 21, 2008 that "Exploration has begun in Mexico
while Nevada’s winter has made certain projects inaccessible.
We hope to have our first set of results from the regional
program around the Mexican mine shortly."
|
|
World Water & Power
VERY HIGH RISK
Trading off the boards
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$.59
|
$1.30
|
$2.52
$.22
|
+120%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
Green
Hits the Mainstream,
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on
solar energy. This is a very high-risk company in the solar-energy/water
purification sector. CEO Quentin Kelly was invited by Governor
Schwarzenegger to join him on the Governor’s tour of Canada,
during the California-Canada Conference on Clean Technologies
in Vancouver.
Reflecting startup delays in implementation
which pushed third quarter business into the fourth quarter
of 2007 and first quarter of 2008, revenue for the third quarter
was $4.4 million, compared with $6.5 million reported in the
third quarter of 2006. Gross profit for the quarter was $0.6
million, versus $1.5 million in the prior-year period. Large
projects which were scheduled for groundbreaking in the second
and third quarters are now starting installation in the fourth
quarter. The Company's net loss for the third quarter of 2007
was $3.8 million, or $(0.02) per share, compared to a loss
of $0.9 million, or $(0.01) per share, in the third quarter
of 2006. The 2007 third quarter reflects investments in R&D,
marketing, and operations to support WorldWater's strategic
growth initiatives, which include moving to fewer, multi-megawatt
projects from higher volume smaller projects. Cash on hand
was $18 million, as of 9.30.07.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. Although this company
should have upside growth in 2008, we’ll likely close out
this stock by mid-February 2008, with the idea of entering
back in at a later date in the year. Look for more news in
the Feb. mid-month update.
|
|
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
(Green ETF)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
$21.26
|
$29.00
$14.97
|
+26%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12 for
articles on solar energy. This is a well-managed "smart"
ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises
on the good or bad news of alternative energy companies which
it may not even hold in the portfolio. Fell earlier this year
on bad news at Evergreen Solar, with regard to silicon supply,
even though Evergreen Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings
on 1.12.07: SunPower, OM Group, Ballard, Energy Conversion
Devices, SunTech, Ormat, Evergreen, Ormat and MEMC Electronic
Materials.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. Although this ETF should
have upside growth in 2008, we’ll likely close out this stock
by mid-February 2008, with the idea of entering back in at
a later date in the year. Look for more news in the Feb. mid-month
update.
|
|
WisdomTree
NYC, USA
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$8.70
$2.70
(1.18.07)
|
$2.70
|
$9.94
$2.60
|
-69% &
flat
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees,"
and vol. 5, iss. 2, "International
Money Grows on WisdomTrees."
This is a well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates
its holdings regularly, and trades on earnings instead of
market cap. Trading off the boards with a ample capital and
a team of Wharton geniuses in the executive suite. The company
has had to delay its plans to re-list on NASDAQ, due to current
"market conditions and a $5 minimum stock price requirement."
According to a press release issued on Nov. 12, 2007, the
Company does not expect to re-list until the second quarter
of 2008, at the earliest. WisdomTree Trust launched the industry’s
first small-cap dividend-weighted emerging markets ETF on
Halloween under the ticker symbol DGS, and launched WisdomTree
Emerging Markets High-Yielding Fund (DEM) in July. Wisdom
Tree also offers an ETF 401(k) platform. Don’t underestimate
this company. CEO Jono Steinberg is married to Maria Bartiromo
and both have strong relationships on Wall Street, as do Chairman
Michael Steinhardt and Senior Investment Strategy Advisor
Professor Jeremy J. Siegel, the famous Wizard of Wharton.
Should
file annual report at the end of February. (last year’s report
was issued on 2.27.07.) As of 3rd Q earnings report,
revenues for the first nine months of 2007 equaled $12,385,111
compared to $548,000 in 2006. The net loss for the same period
was $19 million, compared to $12 million lost in the prior
year. Cash and cash equivalents equal almost $6 million, down
from almost $58 million in January of 2007 (mostly due to
investment activity).
In the
17 months since the launch of its first ETFs, the Company
has listed a total of 39 equity funds through the WisdomTree
Trust, attracting more than $4.6 billion in assets under management.
The Company currently offers the most comprehensive lineup
of international ETFs with 27 funds covering the developed
world, emerging markets and non-U.S. sectors. The Company
states that more than 75% of total assets under management
are invested in its international product set.
The Company
has also expanded its sales and operations functions to rapidly
commercialize its intellectual property through diverse channels
including licensing and institutional separate accounts. In
addition, the Company has assumed a leadership role in bringing
ETFs into the $3 trillion retirement market, by launching
the WisdomTree 401(k) platform -- the first open-architecture
platform to combine ETFs and no-load mutual funds.
|
|
Yahoo
Silicon Valley, USA
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$27.71
$23.96
(12.26.07)
|
$20.78
|
$34.08
$20.07
|
-25% &
-12%
|
|
Announces earnings on 1.29.08
at 5:00 p.m. ET. We just re-added Yahoo to the list effective
6.15.07. Terry Semel is coaching (as non-executive Chairman)
and Jerry Wang is leading (as CEO), but can Yahoo jumpstart
their stalled potential? Why do we believe them this time?
eBay’s CEO Meg Whitman committed to a large block of ads on
Yahoo, which were previously the exclusive domain of Google.
3Q earnings: "Moving forward, we are focused on three big,
multi-year objectives: to become the starting point for the
most consumers on the Internet; to be the 'must buy' for the
most advertisers; and to deliver open, industry-leading platforms
that attract the most developers," according to Yahoo
co-founder & CEO Jerry Yang. Revenues were $1,768 million
for the third quarter of 2007, a 12% higher than the same
quarter last year. Net income for the third quarter of 2007
was $151 million or $0.11 per diluted share, roughly equal
to last year. Cash and short term investments equal $2.7 billion.
Corporate Buyback of company stock in the quarter was $350
million. Since Yahoo has so much free content, it could be
the beneficiary of the writer’s strike, which is turning network
tv watchers into IT entertainment lovers.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and/or Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace. We’ll look to close out this underperformer
by mid-February 2008.
|
|
Zoltec
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
ZOLT
|
$43.24
|
$34.89
|
$51.77
$18.34
|
-19%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12. Annual report was issued on 12.7.07. Makes
a material used in wind turbines. With utilities coming on
board with green, renewable energy in droves, this marketplace
is expanding very rapidly.
Spectacular earnings reports from
Apple and Google could temporarily boost an otherwise drab
stock marketplace in mid-February. Although this company
should have upside growth in 2008, we’ll likely closely at
the short term potential in mid-February 2008. Look for more
news in the Feb. mid-month update.
|
Sony (NYSE:
SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell
(NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the
Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains.
Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands
was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains, Agilent on 2.1.07
with flat performance, and RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains
on 2.1.07. Blockbuster ran up 82.5% in gains, which we cashed in
on February 12, 2007. Intuit, deleted in June 2007, was a wash for
us – up and down. Macerich posted 150% gains between May 2003 (when
it was first featured) and September 2007 (when it was removed from
the list). Jet Blue was removed on December 5, 2007 with losses
of 24-45%. Still love the airline as a consumer, but oil prices
are killing the industry. Disney (+31%), National Health Investors
(flat), News Corp. (+33%), Opsware (+690%), Sirius (mixed) and Time
Warner (flat performance) were all deleted on December 26, 2007.
Gap Stores was deleted on 1.14.08 with negative performance (-14%).
Stocks
to Watch
Some of
these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot
List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling
Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Recent
Additions:
Canadian Imperial Bank
WisdomTree Emerging Markets High-Yielding Equity Index
WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund
WisdomTree International Financial Sector Fund
Recent
Deletions:
Boston Properties
was moved to the Cooling Off List on January 14, 2008.
Macerich was
moved to the Cooling Off List on January 14, 2008.
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
1.18.08
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
| Canadian
Imperial Bank |
No
|
CM
|
$65.29 |
--
|
$108.79
$63.66
|
--
|
| Added
on February 1, 2008. Refer to "Banking
On Iraqi Dinars,"
in vol. 5, iss. 2. |
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$8.74
|
$10.64
|
$14.98
$3.84
|
+22%
|
|
EMCORE Corp (EMCORE), is a provider
of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems
for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial
solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments:
Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Missed earnings estimates
on 12.18.07.
|
|
General Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$39.90
|
$34.31
|
$41.16
$32.20
|
-14%
|
|
See the article, "Green
San Jose Company," in vol. 4, iss. 8.
|
|
General Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$29.05
(12.3)
|
$23.52
|
$43.20
$21.34
|
-19%
|
|
See the article "Faded
Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. Almost every
risk factor which GM listed in the annual report has occurred
– prices for parts are higher due to the metals commodity
crunch and gas prices have turned consumers to gas efficient
vehicles. GM still has an enormous overhead that impedes its
ability to be profitable in the global landscape and debt
that exceeds its market value by a multiple of five. Investors
got excited late Sept. 2007 about a tentative deal with the
United Auto Workers Union, however, expenses are still too
high and the cars are still too unpopular. I’ve not highlighted
this company because the CEO is doing a spectacular job in
an awfully challenging landscape. Want to check out the focus
on new products, including the electric car, but investors
should be warned that there is a lot of debt and challenges
to surmount before profits return to GM. Not a short, but
certainly not a company that one would expect to be turned
around overnight.
|
|
International Rectifier
|
No
|
IRF
|
$32.68
|
$26.50
|
$44.36
$30.47
|
-18%
|
|
International Rectifier Corporation
is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of power management
product devices, which use power semiconductors. The Company's
products are used in a variety of end applications, including
computers, communications networking, consumer electronics,
energy-efficient appliances, lighting, satellites, launch
vehicles, aircraft and automotive diesel injection.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.34
|
$33.01
|
$36.81
$21.45
|
+16%
|
|
World’s largest software company.
$31 billion in cash. Launched Zune on Nov. 14, 2006 and Vista
earlier this year. New products have not received "buzz"
or outstanding sales. Great blue chip for your long term portfolio
because with the war chest and talent at MSFT, even this year’s
assembly line of flops shouldn’t bring the company down, although
it may bring out the firing rod. Will pressure come down on
Steve Ballmer, CEO? Trading near the 52-week high, so waiting
for a better buy-in opportunity might yield better returns.
|
| WisdomTree
Emerging Markets High-Yielding Equity Index |
No |
DEM
|
$49.72
|
--
|
$57.73
$40.91
|
-- |
| Added
on February
2008, vol. 5, issue
2. |
| WisdomTree
Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund |
No |
DGS
|
$43.41
|
--
|
$52.71
$42.50
|
-- |
| Added
on February
2008, vol. 5, issue
2. |
| WisdomTree
International Financial Sector Fund |
No |
DRF
|
$24.26
|
--
|
$31.49
$23.74
|
-- |
| Added
on February
2008, vol. 5, issue
2. |
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share
Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note, that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Boston
Properties (BXP)
Macerich
(MAC)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 1.14.08
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Boston
Properties
|
No
|
BXP
|
$86.91
|
$85.18
|
$133.02
$79.88
|
-2%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, issue 9 in the
REITs article. Boston Properties looked great prior to 2007.
Think that the office building REITs may begin to come under
pressure sometime in 2008. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital
spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs
of the business economy, which are the customers of Boston
Properties.
|
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
$68.75
(5.25.07)
|
$32.15
|
$70.57
$26.38
|
-47% &
-53%
|
|
Spent $1 billion on accounting
fees related to the accounting scandal. Investors are still
in to the tune of $58.44 billion…. Are you? Better check your
mutual funds. The recent subprime lending fallout doesn’t
bode well for FNM. Standard and Poor’s has a negative outlook
on Fannie Mae. 3rd quarter net loss was $1.5 billion.
FNM expects that the housing crunch and credit tightening
will continue to adversely impact their financial results
in 2007 and 2008, according to the 3rd quarter
earnings report. FNM cut dividend from 50 cents to 35 cents
per share on 1.18.08.
|
|
KB Home
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$18.52
|
$56.08
$15.76
|
-69%
|
|
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under
pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating
options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from vol.
2, issue 5. In
May 2005, we called REITs
a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high
home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of
contracts and rising inventory. On June 28, 2007, KBH reported
a loss from continuing operations of $174.2 million or $2.26
per diluted share in the second quarter of 2007, largely due
to a pretax, non-cash charge of $308.2 million related to
inventory and joint venture impairments and the abandonment
of land option contracts. In the second quarter of 2006, the
Company generated income from continuing operations of $184.4
million or $2.20 per diluted share. Revenues totaled $1.41
billion in the second quarter of 2007, down from $2.20 billion
in the year-earlier quarter, due to a decline in housing revenues
that was partly offset by an increase in land sale revenues.
|
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$60.02
|
$58.91
|
$103.59
$59.75
|
-2%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, issue 9 in the
REITs article. We first featured Macerich in May of 2003,
when it was trading at $33/share. In September, the signs
were pointing toward a cooling off in retail shopping center
REITs, so we removed the company from our Hot News list (meaning
that we’re capping the performance at 150% gains). There is
a good chance that the Santa Rally will enthrall investors,
and push the MAC price up, even though it is in the decidedly
unpopular REITs industry. We’ll look to putting MAC on the
Cooling Off list in January 2008, or if interim news warrant
it earlier.
|
|
Novastar Financial
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
NFI
|
$28.04 &
$36.53 (6.15.07)
|
$1.94
|
$526.08
$1.12
|
-93% &
-95%
|
|
See the article (Sub)
Prime Time in
the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 5, when we warned everyone
should get out of subprime mortgage lenders. On July 27, 2007,
Novastar announced a reverse stock split. As a result of the
reverse stock split, every four shares of common stock were
changed into one share of common stock. Scott Hartman, the
company's chairman and chief executive officer, Chief Financial
Officer Gregory Metz and General Counsel Jeff Ayers are leaving
the company, effective Jan. 3, 2008. Lance Anderson, the current
chief operating officer and president, was elected by the
board to replace Hartman. In danger of being delisted by the
NYSE due to the share price falling beneath $5.00/share. Has
laid off 100s of employees, sold off most of its subprime
loans and closed doors on most of its offices. What’s left
to do? The paperwork? Don’t be fooled. Lance Anderson may
be the only guy on the planet who would take this job. The
former CEO and Chairman is reportedly getting $2.1 million
in cash for leaving, according to BizJournal.
|
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$17.29
|
$35.64
$18.85
|
-54%
|
|
Robert Toll, CEO, and brother Bruce
Toll have been on an insider selling spree, totaling hundreds
of millions, since May 2005 (source: MoneyCentral.Msn.com).
Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and
Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from vol.
2, issue 5 in
2005, when we first reported on REITs
as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities action
complaint (but not a confirmed investigation), from June 2007,
alleging that Toll Brothers "and one or more members
of its senior management, violated federal securities laws
by issuing various materially false and misleading statements
that had the effect of artificially inflating the market price
of the Company's securities and causing Class members to overpay
for the securities." Reported a loss of $81.8 million,
or 52 cents per share, in its fiscal fourth quarter, compared
with net income of $173.8 million, or $1.07 per share, a year
ago. According to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert
Toll, "By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging
of the 40 years that Toll Brothers has been in business. 1974
was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one
year." You can access the call on their website at: www.tollbrothers.com.
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$31.97
|
$25.48
|
$37.99
$25.79
|
-20%
|
|
See Wells
Fargo’s Great
Depression, in vol.
4, iss. 12. The 3Q 2007 earnings release was issued on 10.16.07.
Look for the 4Q report 1.16.08. According to the Associated
Press, "The fifth-largest U.S. bank revealed in November
that it expects $1.4 billion in losses on home equity loans
in the fourth quarter, as borrowers in California and the
Midwest struggle to make mortgage payments as many rates reset
higher." Sold most of the $2 trillion in home loans that
it originated since 2001, and invested relatively little money
in the mortgage-backed securities that are crumbling, according
to an AP report on 1.14.08. Announced full year results on
1.16.08 of: Record revenue of $39.4 billion, Net income of
$8.06 billion, including previously announced $1.4 billion
(pre tax) credit reserve build and $203 million (pre tax)
Visa litigation expense. In the earnings press release issued
on 1.14.08, President and CEO John Stumpf said, "We expect
the environment to remain challenging in 2008, particularly
in the consumer sector."
|
The following
companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06:
Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). LifeCell was removed
on 7.2.07 with -4.5% overall performance. (The cooling off list
anticipates that a company will lose share price value.) Google
was added on 7.16.07 and then removed on 8.1.07 with losses of -6.7%.
General Motors was removed on 10.01.07 with mixed performance.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research, consider your
long-term goals and strategies and consult an experienced, reputable
certified financial professional before buying or selling any security.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
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Verdi's
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Saturday,
February 16th, 2008
7:00PM
through 11:00PM
When the
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Recovered
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Sunday,
February 17th, 2008
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A lost
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Arianna
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(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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