TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.5 Issue 3 March 1st, 2008
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"Green is
hot. Not only is the private demand rising, but governments are
falling over themselves to subsidize these industries."
Dr. Marc
Miles, global strategist and editor,
2006 Index of Economic Freedom.
|
- Green
Chips: Mega Stable Corporations
with a Focus on Green Are Trading for a Song! By Natalie
Pace. Includes a Green Chip Stock Report Card™.
- Cash is King.
By Steve Dietrich. How to reign supreme through the credit
crunch, real estate downturn and foreclosure maelstrom.
- Tips for Avoiding Foreclosure.
By the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
- 21 Days to a Healthier, Wealthier, More Beautiful
You. Coaching call series with Natalie Pace and
Gary Kobat begins on March 7, 2008! By Natalie Pace.
- Enthusiasm. By Gary Kobat, life and fitness coach
to the stars.
- What's Your Story - Horror Flick or Blockbuster?
by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
- The Billionaire Game.
By Natalie Pace. How would you live if you had all of
the money in the world?
- Cyber Theft: Tips for Protecting Your Financial
Information.
Investor Alert from FINRA.org.
- Beautifying Your Bottom Line. By
Natalie Pace. Tips to keep your 'Buy My Own Island' Fund
calm during the market storms.
- Enlightened Investors, Not Market Timers,
Crystal
Ball Readers and Chart Junkies, Earn Great Gains. By Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends.
- Are We Headed Into a Recession?
Subscribers Chat with Global Strategist Dr. Marc Miles.
- Green Rocks While Wall Street Rolls Over.
By Natalie Pace. Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
- NataliePace.com Calendar:
Don't Miss Chats with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat
and Kelley Wright, the #1 Blue Chip Stock Picker, on how
to beautify your fiscal and physical fab self! Also, Premium
Subscribers enjoy a private Q&A/teleconference with Natalie
Pace.
|
 |
|
Green Chips:
by Natalie
Pace.
Mega
Stable Corporations with a Focus on Green Are Trading for a Song!
Includes
a Green
Chip Stock Report Card.
According
to the Social Investment Forum, $2.3 trillion (out of $24.4 trillion
under professional management) were traded with socially conscious
screens in the United States in 2005—nearly one out of every
ten dollars. Socially conscious companies embody open and transparent
business practices, ethical values, respect for employees, communities
and the environment, and have a vision of working for the world
at large, as well as shareholders. Whew! Quantum physics might be
easier than figuring out which companies are socially conscious!
Who has the time? Fortunately, there are a lot of watchdog organizations
that make the job easier than it sounds. And, thankfully, there
are a number of socially conscious mutual funds available, which
can exponentially cut down your research time.
In 2007, the
best-known socially conscious funds were Domini and Calvert. I’d
love to report that being socially conscious was good for your wallet,
but over a ten-year period, those funds underperformed. Ouch—not
what those socially conscious visionaries of the late 1990s hoped
would happen.
But their vision
might still come true. The happy news is that the top-performing
industry in 2007 was alternative energy, after being virtually non-existent
for the prior three decades. Oil hit $100 a barrel, but investors
still loved the clean energy stocks more. With the explosion of
interest in alternative energy and green investing, a number of
additional socially conscious mutual funds and ETFs have begun to
sprout and more will likely follow.
Green
is Great For Your Wallet
There
will be a slew of brokers and friends who are anxious to warn you
that this approach was a loser in the past. Remind them that driving
while looking in the rearview mirror is a good way to crash. The
Internet was a colossal loser for investors from 2000-2002, before
Google went on to become the most successful IPO of all time. Apple
Computer single-handedly resurrected the music business, at a time
when the music companies were trying to sue their customers into
paying for downloads and Tower Records had to shut its doors. As
Dr. Marc Miles, a global strategist, said in February 2008, "Green
is hot. Not only is the private demand rising, but governments are
falling over themselves to subsidize these industries." Don’t
be stuck in the past, ever.
Just to illustrate
how hot companies are becoming when they take the socially conscious
high road, consider one of the top performing stock picks in 2007:
World Water & Power. I featured the company in my April 2007
ezine. Just one month later, in late May, the company’s chairman
and CEO, Quentin T. Kelly, traveled in Toronto and Vancouver with
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on the California Trade
Mission to Canada. Mr. Kelley was selected due to World Water &
Power’s leading role in building prominent solar energy projects
in California, including the Fresno airport solar complex, and an
agricultural system that is the largest solar-powered agricultural
system in the world, as well as the only self-sustaining water utility.
World Water and Solar was also selected to provide ten solar-driven
water-purification units for use in Darfur, Sudan, that will each
deliver some 30,000 gallons of safe drinking water daily at sites
throughout that ravaged desert region. This is the kind of company
that thrills the socially conscious investor and the capitalist
alike.
I bring up this
company as an example in particular because World Water and Solar
was trading off the boards during that time period—meaning that,
if you had been pouring over technical charts or earnings reports
or analyst recommendations about that time, you would almost certainly
not come across this one. The company was not a holding in any mutual
fund. The only way you could have stumbled on what a player World
Water was becoming was by looking at the products, the customers,
and the forward-thinking projects that the CEO was engaged in—by
investing in the company as an individual stock.
Additionally,
as the ultra high-risk investment -- a small cap stock that is trading
on the Pink Sheets -- World Water would typically be the first stock
dumped in a panic if there was any concern in the larger stock markets.
So what happened when the subprime mortgage market stumbled so badly
in the summer of 2007? Instead of plunging, World Water came through
strong, while the blue chip stocks took a beating. The stock markets
look like a flat line by comparison to the stellar returns that
World Water posted and sustained during the period between April,
when my feature article on the company appeared, and September,
when Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee cut
the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points in an attempt to restore confidence
in the capital and credit markets. World Water and Solar was trading
at $1.55 per share on February 29, 2008, which is still more than
twice as much as the 59 cent share price when we first featured
the stock in April of 2007.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
That means that
investors who take positions in these green, socially conscious
companies are less willing to give them up—even in uncertain times.
In that case, new investors are going to have to pay a higher price—something
we all love when we’ve bought our positions early.
Exit
Oil: Invest in Renewable Energy
Interested
in socially conscious investing, but want to try a newer fund? WisdomTree,
iShares, PowerShares, and the American Stock Exchange website all
list ETFs, grouped by industry, investment style and other factors
of interest. Doing a search for socially conscious mutual funds
or ETFs on your favorite engine should also yield results. Calvert
and Domini have websites. Also, it’s your broker’s job to know what
funds are out there, so s/he should be helpful in your search as
well.
Even if you
don’t want to become an activist investor, what you might not realize
is that chances are very high that you are already invested
in all kinds of corporations that you may not wish to support. If
you have a retirement plan at all—whether it’s a 401(k), annuity,
IRA or pension plan—you are invested in mutual funds, and each mutual
fund invests in hundreds of publicly traded companies.
Every wonder
how Philip Morris could make it through those decades of lawsuits
by the cancer victims? With your money. Ever wonder how Exxon
Mobil remains the largest corporation in the world with a market
value of over $500 billion? With your money.
I meet people
all the time who hate smoking, but invest in cigarette companies
because the dividends are so strong. Others complain about a "war
for oil" in Iraq, but drive gas guzzlers and have oil company
stock (some without knowing it). In September 2007, Altria (Philip
Morris) was one of the top holdings in the four most widely held
mutual funds. Exxon Mobil was largest publicly traded company on
Wall Street. Translation: If you own a mutual fund, chances are
you own Philip Morris tobacco company, Exxon Mobil and all kinds
of other companies and activities that you may not want to support—whether
you are anti-oil or just sick of watching a tanned Larry Ellison
(CEO of Oracle) buy Malibu real estate and race sailboats.
Is there really
any reason to invest in clean energy over oil, defense and tobacco
companies? Well, yes, even if the sole reason is that you want to
participate in the world’s top performing industry (in 2007, and
likely going forward as well). Why not invest in the products and
services that are cleaning up our world? If Al Gore is right that
global warming is a life-or-death concern, investing in clean energy
could save our planet. If he’s wrong, we end up with cleaner air,
land, water and energy. Sounds like a win-win to me.
There are a
lot of naysayers out there, who pshaw the idea that you should engage
your desires and emotions at all in investing, to which I reply,
"Good luck." Emotions are the criminals most responsible
for stealing your gains. Like it or not, when your stocks go down
in value, your blood pressure boils and you want to dump them quickly,
and when they rocket up in value, the shock and thrill keep you
clinging for dear life, even when it’s a good idea to let go. In
other words, your emotions are your own worst enemy when you are
invested in things you don’t really like and have no idea how to
value. Your emotions can be a great ally when you are invested in
things that are enriching the world, and you are confident that
those investments will continue increasing in value in the years
to come.
Seeing what
companies your mutual funds are invested in is as easy as two clicks
on your computer. Literally. That easy. You can simply enter the
symbol of the mutual fund in the Research Now box on the home page
at NataliePace.com. You will be taken to the stock page of the mutual
fund. Just click on "Top 25 Holdings" to see what companies
you're supporting.
If you don’t
like what you discover, then simply tell your broker that you want
to own funds that are more socially conscious. There are index funds,
exchange-traded funds, and tons of easy options for you to choose
from that target companies more in your sweet spot. Or, you could
create your own socially conscious nest egg with a basket of carefully
diversified stocks, with the help of a professional. It’s not that
hard, and a good broker will be a valuable asset in this. This month,
with so many large, green corporations trading for a song, is a
great time to set up that new green basket of stocks. Click to access
a Green
Chip Stock Report Card.
Green
Chips
All
of the companies listed in the Green Chip Stock Report Card have
active investments and policies toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and creating renewable energy infrastructure world wide. Since 2004,
General Electric has achieved a 500 percent increase in wind turbine
production, and its wind business revenues exceeded $4.5 billion
in 2007. According to the American Wind Energy Association, over
the past two years, GE has supplied wind turbines representing nearly
half of the new wind capacity across the United States. GE's 1.5-megawatt
wind turbine is among the most widely used machines in the global
wind industry, with more than 8,000 installed around the world.
Google is conducting
Research & Development to build 1 gigawatt of renewable energy
power, which would be sufficient to power the city of San Francisco.
Johnson and Johnson is listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability World
Index and won the coveted Green Partner of the Year Award in 2005.
Intel and Google founded the Climate Savers Computing organization,
which is commited to a 50% reduction in power consumption by computers
by 2010. Microsoft is a partner of Climate
Savers Computing.
Remember that
the mega stocks are stabilizing forces for your long-term portfolio,
not stallions you can win day-trading races with. The dividends
of these large cap stocks, and the fact that they trade in a narrower
range, means that you should be able to earn reliable, steady gains
over time, without losing much sleep. That is no guarantee, however,
that the current volatility in the markets will not force the price
lower this year. So, adding these companies to your ‘Buy My Own
Island’ Fund means taking a long view, with the knowledge that you
are buying these companies near their 52-week lows, which will hopefully
be a great price now and going forward.
The Bottom
Line
I’m
really glad that I don’t have to ride my horse to New York City,
so I’m grateful for the role that oil and gas played (in the past)
in making our lives easier. I’m just confident that if we can walk
on the moon, we can invent solar-powered planes. (We already have
solar-powered space stations.) If we can end slavery, we can end
poverty. If we can eradicate polio, then we can find a cure for
cancer that is better than chemotherapy. Collectively, our money
promotes and creates the products, goods, and services in our world,
so let’s be mindful about how we decorate our home.
Green
Chip Additions to the Hot News on Cool Stocks List
Google
was a company I featured at the IPO, as a lone ranger, before the
company’s diversified revenue strategy was proven out. Of course,
by 2006, when the Google share price was bumping up against $500
per share, and the revenue had been doubling year over year, our
readers believed I was a genius, but then began complaining that
they would never be able to own the company because they’d missed
the IPO. It was great that I had picked the company in the first
place, but when was I going to highlight it again as within buying
range?
For two long
years, in the Hot News on Cool Stocks list, I kept saying that Google
was too high to buy, much to the dismay of our readers. According
to the news reports that were coming in, the GDP growth rate in
the US was too unreliable to warrant paying a high price to earnings
multiple for a giant corporation – even one with tremendous growth,
as we’ve seen with Google.
So, it is
with great pleasure that I am now able to put Google on the Hot
News list this month. I have also added General Electric, Johnson
and Johnson and Microsoft to the Hot News list this month. Intel
was not added to the Hot News on Cool Stocks list because the chip
industry is highly volatile and competitive. The weak chip cycle
typically occurs later in the year – over the summer. Intel remains
on our Watch list.
|
|
Cash
is King.
by Steve
Dietrich.
How
to reign supreme through the credit crunch, real estate downturn
and foreclosure maelstrom.
If
you read Fear and Loathing In Las Vegas you will understand
that a bad scene can happen anytime, even in the desert city that
never sleeps (Las Vegas). As real estate in the over-valued
areas of Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, et al. continues
to stumble around like a drunken gambler, here are a few tips
that homeowners and potential homeowners might consider.
Home Equity Loans and HELOC's
Friends don't let friends put second mortgages on their
houses. It's bad for the family and bad for the neighborhood.
You don't want to be keeping up with the Jones when they are driving
off the financial cliff. Home
equity loans and HELOC's are disguised second trust deed loans and,
as we’ve seen with so many "teaser rates" and "liar’s
loans," many of these mortgage products are simply smearing
lipstick on a pig. No matter how good it sounds, if you can’t afford
the terms when the new rates kick in, or if the deal requires an
accelerating real estate market to make sense, it is still a pig.
The big difference over the past few years is that your
lender got to sell your soul to a faceless securitization pool
and was thus not bothered by the thought of your family living under
a bus bench when you can not afford the terms of your loan.
Subprime ARM’s
represent about 7% of total loans, but 43% of the foreclosures initiated.
Do not allow yourself to become a subprime casualty.
Dealing With
Home Equity Loans and HELOC's
Here are two alternatives.
1. Get all
of the money out that you will need for the next year (check
for prepayment and termination costs).
2. Payoff
the loan, and close the line of credit (check for prepayment
and termination costs)
Obviously the
second plan is preferable. Your highest yield investment may
be the repayment of debt while your family returns to zero based
budgeting. However, if you are hanging on the window ledge, it may
make more sense to borrow what you can now with the thought that
buying a few months of time will allow you to solve your cash-flow
situation – with increased income.
The HELOCs were
popular with "lenders" for one reason only. The lenders were
not putting their money at risk. Rather they were able to sell
high yield loans for a profit to others who believed that your second
trust deed was a safe investment. It is very probable that
defaulted HELOC's will significantly add to the forced sale
of real estate by owners under duress or by lenders after foreclosure.
Rethinking
your mortgage loan
In today's market the recent buyer is often thinking that
what appeared to be a great opportunity to play the market
now feels like a millstone tied around his neck. When does it pay
to walk away versus stretch to make payments or negotiate a workout?
What are the consequences of foreclosure
In many states home loans are non-recourse loans by law or by
practice. If you are thinking of allowing a home to go into foreclosure
you need to know the rules of your state with respect to deficiency
judgment on the specific types of loans you would be defaulting
on. You also need to be aware of phantom income that might
be created in the transaction, which you would have to pay taxes
on. Thus, it is important that you don’t foreclose without discussing
this with a real estate attorney and accountant.
Thinking of your mortgaged home as an option play
The next thought is to consider your home as a commodity speculation.
When you bought it you probably thought of it as an investment.
However, when times get tough it pays to think of your mortgage
as an option transaction. The lender "owns " your house, but
by making payments you preserve the right to repurchase the
home at a declining price at some future date. At some point making
further payments to preserve your "option" to buy the
home may not make economic sense, especially if you are selling
all of your possessions and eating cat food to make the payments.
Thinking
Long Term
If you are a homeowner living in a neighborhood you adore and
are into the place for the long-run, this too shall pass. Historically,
real estate makes almost 7% annual gains. Some years, it’s
up higher. Others it’s down lower. We’re in that
"down lower cycle," but you may want to continue by adopting
other strategies. If you have real equity in your home, consider
getting a fixed rate at the lowest interest rates in 40 years. If
your home is assessed for property tax purposes at greater than
its market value on the assessment date you can appeal but there
are deadlines that vary. Look at both the real estate and
tax consequences before making any decision. Anticipate that tax
rates for most of us will rise next year.
If you must sell now
Don't follow a sinking market. Price to sell. Sophisticated
retailers understand that the first markdown is the cheapest.
Banking Relationships
Are a fable from a bygone era unless you have funds to deposit,
so get over it. Your typical banker is now a loan broker with little
or no interest in your survival, much less your prosperity.
You’ll need to get good, unbiased advice from experienced
real estate buyers, who have no financial interest in the transactions
you are interested in. Mortgage brokers are salespersons. They are
paid to sell you mortgages, not paid to be genius investment strategists.
Loan Commitment
This is an absolute commitment on the part of your bank to lend
you funds, if they feel like it. Note that one of the
nation's largest banks terminated a number of loan commitments
claiming adverse market conditions. Duh, if I was not worried
about the market I would not have taken an early commitment. Don’t
bank on this as a back-up plan.
Buying a Home (why waiting for the bottom
of the market is not always the best strategy)
The cost of home ownership is a function of the cost of
the home and interest rates. Waiting for the bottom
of the market to buy a home you intend to hold for a long
period may be a mistake if you are planning to borrow most of the
cost. There are a lot of reasons, including Congressional
meddling, that could end today's historically low residential
interest rates and perhaps result in shorter term loans, larger
down payments and higher interest rates.
If you are thinking
of waiting for rates to decline further before refinancing STOP
and take a look at mortgage rates over the past 35 years and count
the years when rates have been lower. Act now.
If you’re looking
to upgrade your home and keep it for a long time, even though the
markets should continue to decline, now might be a good time.
You are likely to get improvements to your home at a more competitive
price now that contractors and suppliers are starting to worry
about demand over the next few years. However, if you are buying
for cash there's probably a ways to go before the market bottoms.
Note, while declining home construction is bad for the economy (and
bad for homebuilder stock values) it is good for your
home's value going forward. Having too much supply on the marketplace
drives the price down, while having demand exceed supply (which
was the case from 2002 to 2005) increases the value.
Do keep in
mind that the secret of successful real estate investing from the
800 square foot fixer-upper to a portfolio of giant office towers
is to buy wisely, but only buy that which you can hold until you
want to sell.
Negotiating
With Your Lender
There is no lender these days in most cases, rather holders
of slices of your loan who have in turn borrowed against piles of
slices. The industry is still trying to figure out how to deal with
the problems. However, there are a number of groups providing no
cost "counseling" to borrowers, pick one who is not selling
anything. It doesn’t hurt to ask your lender for information on
short selling your loan before it hits foreclosure, but beware of
any person or company who is promising miracles.
Natalie’s
Note: The Federal
Reserve Board has a page devoted to help Consumers deal
with foreclosure issues. Go to FederalReserve.gov. Click on Consumer
Information. Then select Foreclosure Resources. The U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development also has resources for homeowners.
Go to HUD.gov.
Leadership
and Vision
The gods of consumption and leverage have fled the kingdom and
cash reigns supreme once again. Bring your financial plan into consistency
with this reality, and start accumulating cash in your nest egg.
Having cash allows you to get through the hard times, but also provides
a way to buy low when others are strapped and unable to access credit.
Lenders will continue to tighten up the standards of people they
will lend to.
Ten or twenty
years from now you will probably have forgotten the hardships that may
affect your family in these times, however, you will be forever
affected by how well you maintained your family and relationships
with friends. Employ both strategic and tactical planning to make
good decisions, not perfect decisions. It is never too tough to
have fun.
Steve Dietrich
runs a commercial real estate consulting and development firm in
Southern California and taught Entrepreneurial Real Estate Development
at the Anderson Graduate School of Business at UCLA for a number
of years.
|
|
Tips for Avoiding Foreclosure.
By
the U.S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development.
Are
you having trouble keeping up with your mortgage payments? Have
you received a notice from your lender asking you to contact them?
* Don't ignore
the letters from your lender
* Contact your
lender immediately
* Contact a HUD-approved
Housing Counseling Agency
* Toll FREE (800)
569-4287
* TTY (800) 877-8339
If you are unable
to make your mortgage payment:
1. Don't
ignore the problem. The further behind you become, the harder
it will be to reinstate your loan and the more likely that you will
lose your house.
2. Contact your lender as soon as you realize that you have a
problem. Lenders do not want your house. They have options to
help borrowers through difficult financial times.
3. Open and respond to all mail from your lender. The first
notices you receive will offer good information about foreclosure
prevention options that can help you weather financial problems.
Later mail may include important notice of pending legal action.
Your failure to open the mail will not be an excuse in foreclosure
court.
4. Know your mortgage rights. Find your loan documents and
read them so you know what your lender may do if you can't make
your payments. Learn about the foreclosure laws and timeframes in
your state (as every state is different) by contacting the State
Government Housing Office.
5. Understand foreclosure prevention options. Valuable information
about foreclosure prevention (also called loss mitigation) options
can be found on the internet at www.fha.gov/foreclosure/index.cfm.
6. Contact a HUD-approved housing counselor. The U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funds free or very low cost
housing counseling nationwide. Housing counselors can help you understand
the law and your options, organize your finances and represent you
in negotiations with your lender if you need this assistance. Find
a HUD-approved housing counselor near you or call (800) 569-4287
or TTY (800) 877-8339.
7. Prioritize your spending. After healthcare, keeping your
house should be your first priority. Review your finances and see
where you can cut spending in order to make your mortgage payment.
Look for optional expenses-cable TV, memberships, entertainment-that
you can eliminate. Delay payments on credit cards and other "unsecured"
debt until you have paid your mortgage.
8. Use your assets. Do you have assets-a second car, jewelry,
a whole life insurance policy-that you can sell for cash to help
reinstate your loan? Can anyone in your household get an extra job
to bring in additional income? Even if these efforts don't significantly
increase your available cash or your income, they demonstrate to
your lender that you are willing to make sacrifices to keep your
home.
9. Avoid foreclosure prevention companies. You don't need
to pay fees for foreclosure prevention help-use that money to pay
the mortgage instead. Many for-profit companies will contact you
promising to negotiate with your lender. While these may be legitimate
businesses, they will charge you a hefty fee (often two or three
month's mortgage payment) for information and services your lender
or a HUD approved housing counselor will provide free if you contact
them.
10. Don't lose your house to foreclosure recovery scams!
If any firm claims they can stop your foreclosure immediately if
you sign a document appointing them to act on your behalf, you may
well be signing over the title to your property and becoming a renter
in your own home! Never sign a legal document without reading and
understanding all the terms and getting professional advice from
an attorney, a trusted real estate professional, or a HUD approved
housing counselor.
|
|
21
Days to a Healthier, Wealthier, More Beautiful You.
by Natalie
Pace.
Coaching
call series with Natalie Pace and Gary Kobat begins on March 7,
2008!
 |
| Photo by:
Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008 Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel,
818-710-0079 |
Join us for this impactful, three-part, 21-day morning-call series:
" 21 Days
That Will Change Your Life!"
… a 21 day morning-call
teleconference series on how world-class achievers shift their thinking,
shift their eating, shift their moving, and shift their financial
decisions to create the most amazing energy, health, and wealth
results anyone can ever imagine in a year.
-- Create
laser-like direction, build personal momentum, and manufacture
energy you never knew you had – fiscally and physically.
-- Develop
forward-moving goals and objectives in minutes for less stress,
more wealth, a recession-proof portfolio and more balance in 2008.
-- How
to look and feel younger… while getting older. How to invest in
companies
that are creating the products of tomorrow, while trimming back
on the industries that are rapidly declining.
-- How to
triple your energy while losing, maintaining, or gaining
weight in alignment with your goals. How to supercharge the performance
of your portfolio, with less risk, while recession-proofing your
nest
egg.
-- The statistical
truths about foods, fuels, the keys to human performance,
why diets fail, and why our weight may not be
the real problem. The statistical data about annual returns, making
gains
during recessions, how to take a long term view for your nest
egg and
a short term view for your trading portfolio in order to be in
balance, flow and to maximize profits.
-- Design
decision making tools for staying focused and committed to your
top
priorities and bigger picture activities, while eliminating interference
that
doesn’t serve you….
-- Daily calls
for fine-tuning your attitude, intentions and outcomes.
And much more.
It’s time to
find your own answers, uncover your own internal motivations, create
a whole new vision for yourself this year: not by hope, not by chance…but
by design.
The
Program:
The core of the
program will be energy, wisdom and working smarter – not harder.
When you have
energy, you can do anything.
When you understand
how to make energy, how to access your energy, how to
unblock your energy, how to implement your energy, then your decisions
start to be crisper, clearer, more impactful, and that energy
will be transferred into better decisions, manifesting more actions
that create bigger results – in your health and in your wealth.
We’ll warn you:
It won’t be about about dieting, counting calories or counting crunches;
but it will be about creating energy for the rest of your life:
course correcting when you get off the path, getting in alignment
with your highest, best self and letting this be the first year
of the rest of your life.
And how are
we going to do that: a series of 21-day lessons in grounding, anchoring
and course correcting your thinking, eating, moving, and finances.
To learn more
about the 21-day program, which begins on March 7, 2008, join us
in the online chat with Natalie Pace and Gary Kobat on Wednesday,
February 6th, 2008. (Information below and on the calendar
section.)
To sign up NOW,
simply go to Natalie Pace.com and click on the JOIN NOW link, or
call 866.476.7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com.
If you need
to update your payment information, it is as simple as registering
online, or you can leave your credit card number and expiration
date on the voice mail system (as it is secure). Email is not a
secure format for your credit card number.
Chat one-on-one
with Gary Kobat on Wednesday, March 5, 2008, at 8:45 a.m. PT (11:45
a,m. ET).
Wednesday,
March 5th, 2008
8:45AM
through 9:30AM PT (11:45 a.m. ET)
Chat
with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat
21 days to a
healthier, wealthier, more beautiful you.
It's all about
energy, tapping into, nourishing and maximizing what you already
have to make extraordinarily easy life changes to embody your highest
potential.
 |
Gary
Kobat is a personal life and fitness coach in Los Angeles, California.
His clients include Jim Carrey, Will Ferrell and more. |
 |
Natalie
Pace is the most trusted name in financial news. Since 2002,
when she launched NataliePace.com, she has been a top-performing
stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits. Of the companies
featured between Oct. 2006 and June 2007. 4 out of 9 companies
– almost half – doubled or more, with average gains of 70.3%
(as of 1.14.08). 3 out of 5 Company of the Year selections more
than doubled. |
|
|
Enthusiasm.
by Gary
Kobat, life and fitness coach to the stars.
"Nothing
great has ever been achieved without enthusiasm." - Ralph Waldo
Emerson.
 |
| Gary Kobat
pacing 7 time Tour de France winner, Lance Armstrong.
|
Suddenly,
one day, we realize what our purpose is: we have vision, a goal,
and from then on work toward implementing that goal. Whether it
is body composition, career, home or relationship, there is something
we enjoy being involved in already, but on a smaller scale. This
is where another layer of "awakened doing" arises: enthusiasm.
Enthusiasm means there is deep enjoyment in what we do plus the
added element of a goal, or vision, that we work toward. When we
add a goal to the enjoyment of what we do, the energy-field or frequency
changes. A certain degree of structural tension is now added to
enjoyment, and so it turns into enthusiasm. At the height of this
creative activity, there will be enormous intensity, energy, and
results behind what we do, laser-like, like an arrow that is moving
toward a target.
To
an onlooker, it may appear that we are under stress but the intensity
of enthusiasm has nothing to do with stress. Unlike stress, enthusiasm
has a high frequency and so resonates with the creative power of
the universe. The word enthusiasm comes from ancient Greek - en
and theos, meaning god-like or "possessed by a god."
With enthusiasm
we will find we don’t have to do it all ourselves. In fact, there
is nothing of significance that we can do "all" by ourselves...
Enthusiasm always knows where it is going, but at the same time
it is deeply at one with the present moment, the now, which is the
source of it's aliveness....
Remember: we cannot manifest what we want, we can only manifest
what we already have .
Train smart. Live, race. Recover smarter.
Gary Kobat.
Chat one-on-one
with Gary Kobat on Wednesday, March 5, 2008, at 8:45 a.m. PT (11:45
a,m. ET).
Wednesday,
March 5th, 2008
8:45AM
through 9:30AM PT (11:45 a.m. ET)
Chat
with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat
21 days to a
healthier, wealthier, more beautiful you.
It's all about
energy, tapping into, nourishing and maximizing what you already
have to make extraordinarily easy life changes to embody your highest
potential.
Learn more about Gary and Natalie’s 21-day coaching call series
in the article, "21
Days to a Healthier, Wealthier, More Beautiful You,"
in this ezine.
|
|
What’s Your Story –
Horror Flick or Blockbuster?
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero
to Zillionaire.
 |
Chellie
Campbell, Author of Zero to Zillionaire
Photo credit: Mary Ann Halpin |
Have you every
heard someone say, "That’s the story of my life" and they
mean their life is joyful, successful, rich, and fabulous? No. It’s
a euphemism for "My life sucks right now and it always has."
It’s usually said in a whine.
Do you ever
say it? When? Are you acting defeated when you say it? Feeling like
a loser? Like a Zero? Do you think people can’t tell? They can.
You speak it. You reek of it. Your desperate, flailing, losing energy
pervades the air and sends up flares like blood in the water summons
sharks.
Poker is my
hobby and I was playing cards one afternoon, when a young fellow
walked by and said hello to a man sitting at my table. He looked
up and said, "Hey, Joe, how did you do in that poker tournament
last week? When I saw you it looked like you had a mountain of chips
in front of you."
"Yeah,"
the young man smiled. "I did pretty well for awhile. I made
it to the final table."
"That’s
great!" said his friend.
But Joe sighed
then and shrugged his shoulders. "But I didn’t get any good
cards after that and I finished in seventh place. I hardly made
any money. "That’s
the story of my life."
And all the
poker sharks were thinking, "Oh, baby, baby, come back and
sit right down at my table and play cards with me. Because you’re
going to lose and I’ll be happy to get all that money that you’re
going to give away!"
Contrast that
story with this one:
The Texas Hold’em
poker jackpot had just been raised to $100,000 during certain hours
at the Bicycle Club Casino. The very first day of the big jackpot,
a poker player named George announced to each of the floormen that
he was going to win it. He told the other players he was going to
win it, too. "Isn’t that new jackpot great? I’m going to win
it today," he repeated over and over.
You know what
happened. He won it. People shook their heads muttering about how
lucky George was. I overheard a floorman say that George had won
six jackpots in the past year, and four the year before that. I
introduced myself to him later and inquired if that was true. The
truth was even more astounding: the $100,000 jackpot was the fourth
jackpot he had won in three days! Yet I know many people who’ve
been playing poker for years who have never won one. And they tell
me that sadly, whenever somebody else wins, "I’ve never won
a jackpot. I’ve never even been at the table when the jackpot’s
been won. That’s the story of my life."
What is it
that makes some people winners and some people losers? The clues
lie in your past, and the stories you tell about your life.
Your
Life—Low-Budget Horror Flick or Big, Rich Blockbuster?
What was your
life like when you were growing up? Are you in the same financial
circumstances now? In the same neighborhood? Did you set your sights
higher than your parents or friends or did you get a similar job
at a similar pay scale?
Americans hate
to think that we have social classes. Rather, we’re comfortable
with the term "middle class," but less happy about calling
others "upper class" or "lower class." But it
is plain to see in every city that we group in socio-economic milieus.
Aside from a few rebellious types who won’t follow the norm, most
people aspire to blend in with others around them. So there are
neighborhoods defined by a high collection of Blue Collar/Apartment-renting/High
School Grad/Kmart Shoppers and others that hold White Collar/Tract
Home-owning/College Grad/Nordstrom Shoppers. The fewer rich neighborhoods
have Tuxedo Collar/Mansion- owning/Grad School Grad/Neiman Marcus
Shoppers. My family used to drive by the mansions of Beverly Hills
and Pasadena on a Sunday outing. We oohed and ahhed over the gorgeous
homes, but no one ever talked about how we might get one for ourselves
one day. They were chimeras—unattainable dreams to be admired, but
not to be had.
If you grow
up in a low-rent district, your parents work in low-wage, unskilled
jobs, and your friends at school scoff at their studies and have
discipline problems, that’s most likely what you will do, too. If
all the parents on your street are working white-collar dads and
stay-at-home moms, it’s probable that the majority of the boys on
your street are going to go to college and look for professional
jobs and middle-class money. The girls are going to do that, too—until
they settle down to have a family, if that is the norm of the neighborhood.
We are born
into mind-sets of expectations that come with their own sets of
values, language, and experience. We look around at the people we
know, who are like us and—for the most part unconsciously—we embrace
and emulate that picture of our future. It comes with its own set
of preprogrammed beliefs—affirming hope or hopelessness, affirming
higher education or not, affirming riches or poverty. Some good,
some bad, some helpful, some harmful—these beliefs inform our actions,
and our actions bind us ever more tightly to the same milieu. We
grow up in a box, create more of the same boxes, and, as the song
goes, "They’re all made out of ticky-tacky and they all look
just the same."
Our expectations
of our financial futures are laid out for us from the beginning,
as we assimilate the luxuriousness or penuriousness of our surroundings.
Our parents’ attitudes and beliefs about money filter down and manifest
in the quality of our homes, whether we rent or own, where or if
we travel, what kinds of things we buy and where we buy it. They
manifest in the stories they tell about how hard or easy money is
to come by, what is worth spending money on and what is not, whether
or not they think they are succeeding in life. When we absorb and
repeat the same convictions, without thinking or examining them,
they will produce the same results for us.
Reflect about
money and the role it has played in your life. Pay attention to
your first memory of money. Was it received as a gift or did you
earn it? Note your first job—what it was, how much you were paid,
whether or not you liked it. Did you ever think of going into business
for yourself? If you did, what made you willing to take the risk?
If you didn’t, what stopped you from taking the risk? Who said,
"That’s a great idea. Go for it!" And who said, "That’ll
never work. You’ll lose everything if you do that."
This is the
financial story of your life. Your choices have been informed by
your experience of all that you have seen, heard, felt, recorded
in memory, and repeated. We act in accordance with our beliefs,
even if we have never examined them. Deep within, you hold cherished
beliefs about finances, rich people, wealth, poverty, good, and
evil. You were born into a milieu, and your beliefs lock you in
the pattern that keeps you in it. Are they facts—or opinions? Are
they beliefs—or truths?
Knowledge is
power. Self-knowledge is the power to change your future. If we
want our outer material life to change, we have to change our inner
mental life.
Chellie
Campbell
is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The
Wealthy Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress
Reduction® Workshops, on which her book is based, in the Los
Angeles area and gives programs throughout the country.
If you are
stuck in a rut in your business or life and/or having too much "month
at the end of your money," Chellie’s workshop might be just what
you need to get things on the right track. You can sign up for Chellie's
Ezine and workshop at www.chellie.com.
|
|
The Billionaire Game.
by Natalie
Pace.
How
would you live if you had all of the money in the world?
 |
Photo by:
Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079 |
When I divorced,
my settlement was that my husband got all of the 401(k)—all the
money we had—and I got to keep the condo, the one that was worth
less than its mortgage. So I started out with no retirement plan
at all. It wasn’t that I hadn’t thought about saving before. I,
like so many, always bought the diapers and the food and the toys
first, and found nothing left over to invest. I never once thought
that I’d be in a position to lose my home, or to have to work full-time,
when I always aspired to be a loving wife who shopped at sexy lingerie
stores, and an attentive soccer mom, who picked her kid up from
school and baked cupcakes for the team.
The
Special Need for Women to Set Up Their Own Nest Egg Now
Here’s
a frightening statistic: 41 percent of single moms live at or below
the poverty level. Single mothers are the largest group living in
poverty; only 8 percent of married couples with kids under 18 are
living in poverty. So if you’re married, a personal financial Freedom
Plan, separate from your spouse’s plan, is a great idea. None of
these single moms, including me, dreamed that the fairy tale ends
in poverty.
In the new fairy
tale, husbands and wives have their own play and dream money. No
matter how much you love and trust your husband, even if he is the
breadwinner and you are the stay-at-home provider (with a thousand
job titles), find a way to tithe to your Buy My Own Island Plan
first, before the bills get paid, and stick to the THRIVE budget
that I outline in this chapter ON YOUR OWN. You might be thinking
that your financial plan is that you get half of everything if you
divorce, but, unfortunately, there are a lot of sad stories about
husbands (and wives) who become shopaholics or alcoholics or sexaholics,
etc, and all of these addictions can be expensive. Have your OWN
dream blueprint and allocate the money to help launch it.
The
Thrive Budget (aka Double Your Fun Budget)
The
basic breakdown of what I call a "Double Your Fun" budget
is 50 percent to Thrive, 50 percent to Survive:
i. 10 percent
to investing
ii. 10
percent to charity
iii. 10
percent to education
iv. 20
percent spent on fun. (Half on immediate fun, like yoga and movies
and dinners out, the other half on something you’ll have to save
up for, like vacations, Jacuzzis, boats, etc.)
v. 50
percent for all your basic needs (including taxes, housing, food,
clothing, debt pay-back, credit cards, bill collectors, etc.)
This budget
places a priority on living a rich life, and investing there FIRST,
BEFORE deciding on how much you’ll spend on basic needs -- just
to survive.
Learning
How to Thrive (Instead of Drowning in Basic Needs)
The
idea of cutting out your café lattes and saving the two bucks
a day is not a strategy for getting wealthy. That plan is all about
deprivation and penny-pinching, is not going to get you out of debt
OR build your wealth, and completely sidelines the basic principle
of real wealth—which is to step into dream come true living now,
by creating a better world, starting with your own home and then
your neighborhood. Living rich means valuing your life here and
now, not waiting for sometime in the future when you can afford
to be happy. Even if you’re drinking cheap wine from a borrowed
glass, even if your investment portfolio is so small you have to
save up for a few months to make your first trade, even if your
10% tithe is as small as a widow’s mite, by investing in your future
(through your investing and education funds), in your network of
friends (through your charitable contributions) and to your health
(through your fun), you are walking the path each and every day
to the rich life (in every sense of the word).
Before you blow
a gasket with anger screaming about how unreasonable I’m being –
your bills are too big and important to cut down so much! -- let’s
consider why the biggest problem in your life isn’t café
lattes, it’s the amount you spend just staying alive. Do you spend
more than 50% on your home, transportation, food, taxes, insurance
and clothing? More than 70%? Are you trying to squeeze all of your
THRIVE budget -- fun, investing, education and community -- into
less than 10% or 20% of your income?
Think about
this on the billionaire level for a minute. (If you want to be rich,
you’re going to have to learn how to think like rich people think.)
Bill Gates was worth about 56 billion in 2007, according to Forbes.
10% return on $56 billion is $5.6 billion annually. Let’s call that
his annual income. Do you think that he spends $2.8 billion on his
basic needs? I’d venture to say that Bill Gates has never spent
anywhere close to 50% of his income on basic needs. Most entrepreneurs
I know (including me) invest more in their business, education,
charity and fun (also known as networking and socializing) than
they spend on basic needs. Many sleep on couches and launch their
dreams out of their parents’ garage. By placing a focus on education,
Asians now have the highest income of any ethnic group in the United
States, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What did I do
to cut my basic needs down to size? As a single mom, one of the
first things I did was find another single mom to live with. Instantly,
my basic needs budget was cut in half, and my disposable income
and free time increased dramatically. Incidentally, another very
famous and powerful single mom did that – Gloria Allred (the famous
attorney and women’s advocate).
If you want
to get ahead, forget about the pennies. Think about the big picture.
Read on and I’ll explain why charity is important, even if you think
you’re so poor you’re the one who needs charity, and why
fun is important, even if you think you’ve got too many responsibilities
to create playtime for yourself.
1. Tithe
to your future first
Each
month when you sit down to pay bills, make the first check you write
a direct deposit into your tax-protected Individual Retirement Account
(with a name that means something very exciting to you, like "Buy
My Own Island Fund"). Set this up as an auto-payment and make
sure that it is equal to 10% of your take home pay each month. You’ll
use this money for investing, following the guidelines for long
term investing success. Keep a percent equal to your age safe --
not invested in any type of fund at all -- but allocated to the
money markets, bonds, Certificates of Deposit or Treasury bills.
Diversify the remaining money into at least six different types
of funds, including growth and value, large cap, mid cap and small
cap, international funds and clean energy.
Do not wait
until you get out of debt to start investing, any more than you’d
wait until you graduate from college to start studying. Consolidate
your debt and get on a payment plan (which is consistent with the
50% SURVIVE part of this budget plan, not more). The money that
you put into your retirement plan should be protected from debt
collectors and lawsuits, and if you set it up right, it should also
be protected from having to pay taxes. (This is what saved O.J.
Simpson from living on the streets, after the Goldman family won
their $33.5 million wrongful death civil suit against him. Certain
retirement plans cannot be levied.) Also, if you are investing right
– in the markets but also in your education -- you will actually
get out of debt sooner than if you apportion a larger chunk out
of your paycheck to pay down debt. As your net worth and income
increase, it becomes much easier to consolidate debt under more
favorable terms and to make larger payments to pay it off.
2. Tithe
to charity
The
next 10 percent of your take-home pay should go to a charitable
organization. Get creative! Tithe to the nonprofit organizations
that you really want to support, not just your church. Consider
getting actively involved, so that you can start networking/partnering
with people who have the same interests as you do. Partnering with
people who share similar passions is a great way to enrich your
life, and your business prospects. Step up and volunteer
for positions that will stretch your skills. Don’t just take the
easiest job. In many cases this is tax deductible, so you are actually
decreasing the amount you pay to taxes as well!
Everyone
asks me how I went from USC graduate to Vice President in my first
business job, without doing the intern, manager pathway up the corporate
ladder. My answer is charity. Immediately upon graduating from the
University of Southern California, I volunteered my time as the
chairperson of the Silent Auction at my son’s elementary school.
It was a high profile public school in Santa Monica, and the woman
who mentored me in the position was a very high profile business
leader in the state of California. Her business skills and her rolodex
were both impeccable. The first year (before I graduated), I volunteered
to solicit for silent auction donations, and then the following
year, when no one stepped up to chair the event, I threw my hat
in the ring. (In charity, oftentimes, the one with the most important
job is simply the person who commits to doing it without being paid.)
While I was
substitute teaching, I also wrote (and won) grants for an underserved
public school
to implement an arts program that had been proven to increase academic
performance. (The kids actually loved learning!). Those skills --
as an executive managing hundreds of volunteers and processing over
$50,000 in retail items in ONE day, as well as writing and winning
grants -- were valuable! Even though I wasn’t getting paid, and
was donating my time, I was increasing my own value, my skills,
my achievements and the pay and the position that I could earn at
any job in the future. So instead of spending YEARS climbing the
corporate ladder, I spent one year in the nonprofit world and jumped
right to the top of the game.
Through these
connections that you make by tithing your time and money to charity,
you will automatically begin attracting a new type of person into
your life. As an unexpected benefit, the executive directors of
organizations I have donated to have become a part of my circle
of friends, my advisory board and have invited me to hang out with
some of their VIP friends, even though I was donating on a fairly
modest level. You’ll also notice that the spiritual director of
the church I attend (and donate to) wrote the Foreword to my book.
Supporting an organization doesn’t guarantee you that level of endorsement
– you’ll need to earn that respect over time -- but it does ensure
that you’ll be hanging out with the right crowd that is accomplishing
great things – and those qualities rub off, just as much as if you
were spending your time in a bar (and drinking in the qualities
of that atmosphere).
Charity can
also be quite fun. As just one example, the American Airlines Ambassador
Program (www.airlineamb.org) allows you to get on board with other
humanitarians to bring care and compassion around the world. While
doing good, you’ll bond to others and add power and weight to your
network of people. How’s that for a different type of vacation.
(Combining budget funds from fun and charity is allowed for an excursion
like this.)
3. Tithe
to your education fund
The
next 10 percent of your take-home pay should go to an education
fund. You probably already know that the single most important factor
for a better job and higher pay is education. The more education
you have, the greater your earning power for your entire working
life. Doctors start out making more than gardeners; architects earn
more than dishwashers. Car mechanics who work on today’s computerized
engines make more than mechanics who repair the old gas guzzlers.
As your education level goes up, so does your intellectual capital
and your salary.
Getting educated
and getting a better job are the two easiest ways to improve your
living condition—to rush you from the world of hand-to-mouth and
into the world of "Hmmm …. what should I do with all this left-over
money?" Whether you’re a teacher who's taking credits to get
her master’s (and a raise), a manager taking classes on weekends
toward an MBA (and a raise), or a pediatrician who's learning more
about investing (to earn money while you sleep), your bottom line
will improve as you learn, master, and employ your newfound skills.
As Oprah said
when she developed her Leadership Academy in South Africa, "Education
is the key to unlocking the world, a passport to freedom."
Never stop learning.
4. The
Fun Funds
Health
is wealth. Fun is an investment in wellness, which is one of the
best investments you can make. Studies show enjoying life reduces
stress, which is very healthy, and means less money spent on doctors.
Exercise (something I call fun and invest in) lowers your blood
pressure. Your health increases your earning potential. Lack of
health is one of the surest ways to encounter the most serious money
challenges anyone will ever face – lack of income, combined with
strangling medical costs.
Spend 10 percent
on things you can buy right now. I actually take cash out for my
immediate fun, and spend it until it’s gone. Some of my favorite
fun things are yoga, spinning, movies, dinner, massages and facials,
as well as slightly bigger splurges like a beautiful silk blouse,
shoes (on sale!) or maybe an iPod.
The other 10
percent goes for bigger adventures -- a trip to Bali, original artwork,
that huge flat screen television or a Jacuzzi. When you think that
20% of your workday is spent just for great fun like this, imagine
how much more you’ll enjoy your work! And when you enjoy your work
more, imagine how much more you’ll put into your work. And
that kind of investment in doing a better job could easily mean
more income or a raise and a promotion. When you get excited about
living, that energy infuses potential and positive results into
everything that you come into contact with – including your investments.
Now, some people
say, "I enjoy my house. That is my adventure." To which
I reply, "Great! So stop complaining that you never go on vacation."
You can also think of this portion of the budget as "no whiners
allowed." I’m not telling you how to define your fun. I’m simply
telling you to appreciate it, to get creative, and to really delight
and bask in the experiences you choose for your free time.
5. Basic
Needs
Only
half of your take-home should go to basic needs. All of them—from
taxes to food, housing, clothing and debt repayments. When you’re
a billionaire, you’ll have more going to taxes, security, staff,
etc. than your home, and when you’re a thousandaire, you’ll have
more going to the home and less to taxes, so this allocation works
on both sides of the scale.
My friends and
subscribers almost stop liking me when I get to this part of the
plan. Their faces scrunch up and they want to scream in protest!
Yes, it’s going
to require sacrificing your keeping up with the Joneses fix, and
redefining your idea of success – for now. But it doesn’t mean you
have to sacrifice style. Your kids might see you and enjoy you more,
if you downsize to a new solar-powered, sustainable Living
Home with modest square footage, than the energy hog McMansion
where everyone hides in their own dorm room.
If you’re working
at a job you hate in order to afford mortgage payments that leave
you so squeezed each month that you and your spouse scream at one
another on date nights, no amount of therapy is really going to
get your life back into balance. You can try to be nicer and love
one another more, but every waking moment is still a crisis waiting
to erupt. Loving and being lovable is key to great companionship,
but you also need an action plan to remove the major stress factors
as well. Money is one of the things that breaks up marriages. Get
it in balance and watch your relationship improve.
Are you living
in a huge home that sucks up more energy than the state of Rhode
Island? Do you really need to live in a home that big? Are you paying
thousands of dollars for your mother or father to live in their
own home, when they could live in the guesthouse out back for free
or in a less expensive senior community, where they would be enjoying
life even more? Are you a single mother who could cut her expenses
in half and have her paycheck go twice as far if you moved in with
another single mother, sharing expenses, childcare, and household
duties?
This is why
the house-sharing premise behind CoAbode.org—one of the most effective
springboards for struggling single mothers—is also useful for elderly
parents, college students, and aspiring rock stars. When people
share basic chores as well as expenses, there's more time and money
for the fun … instead of work, work, work, chores, chores, chores,
homework, bills, crying, hair pulling, arguments, sadness, resentment....
Remember The Odd Couple, the vintage film and TV series about
two divorced men who share an apartment? They were as ill-matched
as two people could be, but they still made it work. Get creative.
I drive a nine-year-old
car. It’s a beautiful German car that runs very well, gets great
gas mileage and the fact that I’m still driving it means that it’s
not polluting a landfill somewhere. I love driving my beautiful
car, and very few people know that it is as old as it is. It feels
almost like a member of the family.
Driving a car
that’s too expensive for your budget or living in a house or apartment
you can’t really afford is not "living the rich life"
if it makes you into an unhappy, overburdened person who screams
at your loved ones every time they spill milk on the hardwood floor
or leave the door open, running up the heating or air conditioning
bill. Having a budget that allows you fun, investing, philanthropy,
and education will put you on the path to financial freedom, successful
investing, a better tomorrow, and a career that pays you more—both
in dollars and in smiles. Freedom is not a Zip code or a car model.
It’s simply living each moment in a way that makes your soul shine
and sing.
You will be
amazed at how quickly balancing your lifestyle and budget, and contributing
regularly to your investment portfolio, translates into measurable
gains. And you’ll also be amazed at how your relationships improve
when you’re happy with the choices you make and are actively creating
a life that’s valuable and enjoyable every single day.
The Thrive Budget
is not just for the middle class and the working class. I have two
girlfriends who are both multi-millionaires. I have often found
myself in their kitchens listening to their worries and concerns
about money—even when I was in danger of losing my home (and, yes,
I put aside my own concerns long enough to have a cup of tea and
listen to theirs). One was concerned that her husband was sucking
the equity out of their multi-million dollar real estate holdings
to keep a Dead On Arrival business on life support. The other had
an independent film she was producing, which was turning out to
be more of a tax write-off than a viable blockbuster.
Of course, odds
are good that the film producer will still be in her home fifty
years from now (trust fund) and the income property owner will never
be out on the street. But, in the short term, those money pressures
felt life shattering and caused severe health problems in
both families. The Thrive budget doesn’t fix everything, but it
provides a structure upon which every financial decision is a balanced
part of a larger vision and game plan – which you design throughout
the playing of the Billionaire Game.
This Billionaire
Game is an exercise that allows you to discover exactly how you
would live your life if you had all the money in the world. When
you get to the essence of your nature – the core of your being –
and discover exactly what you would invest your time and money in
if you had no limitations, that’s when you discover exactly where
you should be investing your time and money (on a smaller scale)
today.
For instance,
if the film producer thought of her film as charity– and it could
have been because it was a film with a strong social message—she
would have rested more easily at night, regardless of the profit
potential. (She could benefit from the tax write-off, which was
what it ended up being any way, and she was bringing an important
message to light in an entertaining way.)
If the Thrive
budget were in place in the income property owner’s household, her
husband wouldn’t have permission to tap the home’s equity for a
losing business proposition. (The Buy My Own Island plan is not
a bank!) He’d have to find viable capital solutions elsewhere.
Young or old,
rich or poor, have a vision, healthy money habits and your own personal
freedom plan. You can start now on your own, regardless of how healthy
or unhealthy your partner’s money habits are.
Wonder how I
could listen to the money woes of my multi-millionaire friends,
when my own situation was dire? Sometimes, I was literally scraping
change out of the bottom of the couch for dinner. Why didn’t I ask
for money? Because part of my game plan was to live with friendship,
beauty and grace no matter how bleak my own personal situation was.
That meant smiling through the rough spots and focusing on the fundamental
qualities of being an interesting, optimistic person.
Besides, I was
grateful to both of these women, who, in their own important way,
helped my son and I survive the tough times, sharing things we needed
at key moments, whether it was a ride home from school or a Sunday
night dinner. They were an integral part of the "Mom Network,"
which any single mother needs to survive. And they were my friends
and had been, through thick and thin, for a long time.
When things
are tough, you must hold hard and fast to grace and dignity. It’s
not always easy, of course. But begging, whining and complaining
do not add any beauty to that picture. And, I had enormous faith
that the Thrive budget was going to kick in and work, and didn’t
want to ruin the experience by annoying everyone around me.
I had confidence
that I could transform my life by adhering religiously to the
flow of money. That meant that even if I had $10 coming in that
week, $1 went to my investment plan, $1 to charity, $2 for fun,
$1 for education and only $5 for basic needs. Sure, I had to get
creative with making that work. I have 35 shareholders in my company,
most of who have received a percentage of the company for providing
services essential to the business. My attorney provided legal counsel
and set up the LLC for units in the LLC. My home office was paid
for with shares of the company instead of cash. I am completely
blown away that my part-time (independent contractor) graphic designer
continued to do amazing work – taking units in the LLC instead of
cash – during periods when we simply did not have the income to
pay him!
So, there was
one night when I slept in my car (and my son slept with his father),
so that we could continue operating. There were many days when beans
were the main food being consumed, and many nights when we were
elated to be invited to dinner at someone’s home! (You’ll recall
that most DOT COMs went bankrupt between 2000 and 2002. I launched
in 2002, when there was literally no money being invested in online
businesses!)
And yet, my
son and I always managed to have fun – continuing our tradition
of weekly family nights, of singing "I love you," in the
mornings to each other, and of listening to loud music on the way
to school. (Neither one of us are morning people, so the music was
more fun than trying to grunt at each other.)
I’m not saying
there were never times that I cursed my son in the quiet sanctuary
of my room! My own son was as wild and untamed as I ever was! And
I know that I spat out some words that are not supposed to be said
in front of kids when I accidentally drove over the spikes on a
road that clearly said, "DANGER! Do not enter! Tire damage!"
and another time when my son accidentally rolled up the car window
on my fingers. However, all in all, my son and I did not let lack
of liquidity get us down or rain on our home life, and we both were
extremely supportive of one another’s dreams and confident that
they would indeed come true.
One year, in
fact, there weren’t any gifts at all at Christmas. I wrapped a few
things that were really lame, and, even though my son was hoping
for a video game console, he hugged me and said he loved me. I laughed
(with a few tears in my eyes) and said that we’d probably look back
at that Christmas as one of our favorites because we were still
hugging and smiling without any gifts. Those are moments when you
feel rich in that priceless commodity known as love.
My book, which
is scheduled for release at the end of the year, is proof that what
I believed in and adhered to work. Using the strategies outlined
in the Thrive budget, which I employed to escape the poverty of
being a single mother, work. (Imagine a Nobel Laureate and a superstar
spiritual leader writing the foreword to my book. Does a dream come
true get any better than that?) While I would have wanted only the
best for my son, including pots of money and a family that didn’t
break up, he learned that our home was built on love, even when
there weren’t elaborate gifts exchanged on holidays.
The
Billionaire Game
Below
is a game that will help you get started dreaming of your Billionaire
lifestyle right now and discover how you would live if you had all
the money in the world.
In order to
really shake out the old and invite in the new way of thinking and
life, I want you to fantasize about what the Thrive Budget could
mean for you where you are now, and then if you were a multi-millionaire
and then as a billionaire. You’ll be following the Thrive budget,
but you will be spending more and more money in each category, until
you are spending just like a billionaire.
It’s just a
game. Watch what issues come up for you.
Starting with
the income you are earning right now, add details to each of the
categories of the Thrive budget, beginning with investing and ending
with basic needs. Which specific organizations are your charitable
donations going to go? What kinds of companies are you buying in
your investment portfolio? What kind of housing are you building
and moving into—A green, solar energy, efficient house? Something
way out of town that fits your new budget better? A small apartment
near work, for less commuting time and less gasoline cost? Will
you manage your own stocks and bonds, or hire a money manager?
The first column
is for your initial year, starting now, but the second column is
what you’d be spending if you earned $1.2 million annually
(not your spouse – your money). For some of you, this is
Fantasyland – something to aspire to – so throw out your walls and
fences and go for it. This is time for outrageous, vivid, detailed
‘dream come true’ planning. It is the same you -- but with a much
bigger monthly salary!
The other columns
are designed to get you thinking wayyyyy beyond your current income
and lifestyle. Imagine then that you are earning a take-home salary
of $100 million per month. How will you invest that? Where will
you donate ten million dollars this month? What kind of immediate
pleasure can you have with that kind of money? What kind of "long-term
fun" splurge will you buy with $120 million (12 months times
$10 million per month)?
When you get
to the basic needs in the final billionaire category, remember that
you’re spending 10% on charity and 10% on education, both of which
could be tax deductible. So, you can allocate only 20% of the 50%—or
$10 million – toward taxes each month, with $40 million left for
all other basic needs.
Play
The Billionaire Game.
- SPEND YOUR
SALARY IN THE FIRST COLUMN (USING THE THRIVE BUDGET ALLOCATIONS).
- SPEND LIKE
A MILLIONAIRE IN THE NEXT COLUMN.
- SPEND LIKE
A MULTI-MILLIONAIRE IN COLUMN 3 AND,
- A BILLIONAIRE
IN COLUMN 4.
|
First
year
(Your
salary)
|
$100,000/month
|
$1,000,000/month
|
$100
Million/
month
|
|
10%:
Financial
Freedom
Investing
Portfolio
|
|
|
|
|
|
10%:
Charitable Giving
|
|
|
|
|
|
10%:
Education
|
|
|
|
|
|
10%:
Short
Term Fun
|
|
|
|
|
|
10%:
Long
Term Fun
|
|
|
|
|
|
50%:
Basic
Needs
*Debt
consolidation
*House
*Car
*Taxes
*Food
*Clothes
|
|
|
|
|
This
Thrive budget exercise is one that allows you to step into
the shoes of a billionaire, and spend like one. What came up for
you? Did you have difficulty spending $10 million on charity? Or
on pleasure? Did you actually curse me when it came to some of these
categories, as if it were ridiculous to imagine spending such an
outlandish amount of money?
Ahhhh… But this
is the life of a billionaire. It’s not just about having a beautiful
family, expensive cars and jewelry and a huge home that magically
cleans itself. There is a tremendous amount of responsibility involved.
In fact, security may be a part of your basic needs. There will
be a professional money manager handling your investments. You’ll
have a staff to maintain. When you become a billionaire, it is more
like being royalty. You have to imagine yourself at the center of
a large estate, with people on your payroll to provide for and farm
a large parcel of land, investments and orchards to fertilize, harvest
and maintain.
Some people
find it very easy to spend $120 million on long-term fun (your own
island or a theme park, ala Walt Disney’s Disneyland). Others wouldn’t
dream of that kind of "narcissism" and could only imagine
a long-term fun budget of $120 million each year that benefited
the rest of humanity (launching a Shakespeare in the Park series
all across the Southwest, sponsoring summer camps for under-privileged
youth, putting playgrounds into underfunded urban elementary schools.).
What many people
come to realize through this exercise is that money is not happiness.
Money becomes a responsibility. Most people can’t come close to
spending $100 million a month on pleasure … until they include other
people. And then, magically, it becomes easy.
A side benefit
of this exercise is that it shatters old (and largely untrue) myths
about being a wealthy business owner. When you see money as abundance
– like a farmer sharing more fruit than s/he can eat with her neighbors
– you can love the idea of making money in investing and becoming
rich. You have a plan that is well-balanced, which keeps you honest
and humble, without being self-sacrificing.
But the truly
most important aspect of this exercise in my mind is that you uncover
the true you – who you would be and how you would act if you had
all of the money in the world. There is no reason why you can’t
start activating that vision now. If you hate war, then refuse to
invest in mutual funds that invest in defense companies. If you
hate cigarettes and cancer, stop investing in Altria (which is Philip
Morris tobacco company).
J.K. Rowling
was able to dream up an entire universe around Hogwarts, complete
with Quiddich and He Who Must Not Be Named. She is now richer than
the Queen of England. We live in a time when an immigrant can be
one of the richest people in America (like Sergey Brin, founder
of Google) and single mums can be richer than queens. Your dream
life should be as rich in details.
|
|
Cyber Theft: Tips for Protecting Your Financial
Information.
Investor
Alert from FINRA.org
January
28, 2008
Your brokerage
firm has an obligation to safeguard your personal financial information.
But even the best procedures cannot prevent all instances of identity
theft—especially if the vulnerability lies with you, the customer.
This brochure,
brought to you by FINRA and the Securities Industry Financial Markets
Association (SIFMA), describes the critical steps you can take to
safeguard your financial accounts and help prevent identity theft.
How
Does Identity Theft Occur?
A
host of ways. Some identity thieves use keystroke-logging software
to capture usernames and passwords, disseminating these programs
through instant messages, emails, or freeware. Others "phish" for
sensitive information by sending phony emails that purport to come
from a legitimate financial institution but which ask for information
your firm would never request through email—such as confirmation
of an account number, password, credit card number, or Social Security
number. Still others use the old-fashioned method of "dumpster-diving"
to recover your discarded account statements or other records that
haven't been properly shredded.
How
Can I Protect Myself?
Take
the following steps to secure your brokerage accounts and your personal
financial information:
* Protect
Your Passwords and PINs. Do not share your passwords or PINs
with others. You also should not store your passwords or PINs on
your computer. If you need to write down your passwords or PINs,
store them in a secure, private place. You should change your passwords
and PINs regularly and use a different password and PIN for each
of your accounts. Use passwords and PINs that contain numbers and
letters or symbols.
* Maintain
Your Computer Security. Personal firewalls and security software
packages (with anti-virus, anti-spam, and spyware detection features)
are a must for those who engage in online financial transactions.
Make sure that your computer has up-to-date security software, including
security patches, that the software is configured for automatic
updates, and that the software is always turned on. For laptops,
be sure to use encryption software. Computer hardware and software
providers also maintain security pages on their Web sites with tips
for checking and improving the security of your system.
* Use Your
Own Computer. It is generally safer to access your brokerage
account from your own computer. Avoid using public computers to
access your brokerage account. Public computers may contain software
that captures passwords and PINs, providing that information to
others at your expense. If you do use another computer, be sure
to delete your "Temporary Internet Files" or "Cache" and clear all
of your "History" after you log off your account. You should occasionally
check to make sure that no one else has attached any device or added
programs to your computer without your knowledge or consent. Consult
the Help function on your browser and operating system to learn
how to delete this information.
* Log Out
Completely. Always click the "log out" button to terminate your
access to your brokerage firm's Web site. Access may not be terminated
if you simply close or minimize your browser or type in a new web
address when you're done using your online account. Other users
of the computer might be able to re-enter the site and have access
to your account online if you do not properly log out. You also
potentially expose yourself to "session stealing" if you have multiple
Web pages open while logged on to your brokerage account. Avoid
multi-tasking on multiple Web pages when checking your financial
accounts online—or, if you must visit another site, use a different
type of browser rather than opening another window.
* Be Prudent
When Using Wireless Connections. Wireless networks may not provide
as much security as wired Internet connections. In fact, many "hotspots"
— wireless networks in public areas like airports, hotels, internet
cafes and restaurants — reduce their security settings so it is
easier for individuals to access and use these wireless networks.
This increases the possibility that someone may intercept your information.
You may decide that accessing your online brokerage account through
a wireless connection is not worth the security risk. If you use
your own wireless network, make certain you secure the network with
wireless encryption.
* Check
for Secure Web Sites. When you access your brokerage account
online, check to ensure that the log in page indicates that it is
a secure site. The address of a secure Web site connection starts
with "https" instead of just "http" and has a key or closed padlock
in the status bar (which typically appears in the lower right-hand
corner of your screen). When you click on the padlock, the security
certificate should confirm the identity of the site you are visiting.
In Microsoft Internet Explorer 7, look for the address bar to turn
green.
* Be Careful
Downloading. When you download a program or file from an unknown
source, you risk loading malicious software programs on your computer.
Download software only from sites you know. Be wary of free software
because it can be accompanied by other software such as spyware.
Do not install software unless you know what it is and what it does
and do not click on links in pop-up windows. Using anti-spyware
software helps protect you from such programs.
* Don't
Respond to Emails Requesting Personal Information. Legitimate
companies will not ask you to provide or verify sensitive information
through email. If your financial institution actually needs personal
information from you or your statement, call the company yourself
— using the number in your files or on your statement, not the one
the email provides! Do not respond to emails, such as "phishing"
emails, seeking your password, PIN, or other personal information.
* Read Your
Statements. Read all your monthly account statements (bank,
brokerage, credit card, etc.) thoroughly as soon as they arrive
to make sure that all transactions shown are ones that you actually
made or authorized. Check to see whether all of the transactions
that you thought you made appear as well. Be sure that your brokerage
firm has current contact information for you, including your mailing
address and email address. If you see a mistake on your statement
or do not receive a statement, contact your financial institution
or credit card issuer immediately and follow-up in writing, where
necessary.
*
Secure Your Confidential Documents. Keep all your financial
documents in a secure place, and be careful how you dispose of any
documents with financial or other confidential information. Shred
documents that have confidential financial or identification information
before throwing them away.
* Safeguard
Your Social Security Number. Do not use your Social Security
number as a username, password or PIN, and make sure that it does
not appear on your printed checks. If your Social Security number
appears on your driver's license, be sure to ask your state's Department
of Motor Vehicles whether it can use an alternative number. Keep
your Social Security card in a safe place and avoid carrying it
with you. You should also be sure to safeguard the social security
numbers of any dependents.
* Do a Periodic
"Identity Theft" Check. Reviewing your credit report may alert
you to inaccuracies and unauthorized activity. You can obtain a
free credit report every 12 months from three different credit bureaus
by contacting the Annual Credit Report Request Service at AnnualCreditReport.com.
This is the only authorized online source for you to get a free
credit report under federal law. Be aware that you will have to
disclose your Social Security number to obtain this report.
What
Should I Do If My Identity Has Been Compromised?
If
you think that your personal information has been stolen, immediately
contact your brokerage firm and other financial institutions, including
credit card issuers, to notify them of the problem. You should also
notify the credit bureaus to put a fraud alert on your file.
If you detect
unauthorized transactions in or withdrawals from your brokerage
account, ask the firm to investigate. Be aware that your firm will
need time to determine what happened and may need your help in identifying
family members or others who might have access to your account.
In the meantime, be sure to change your username, password and PIN
for the account.
Additional
Resources
To obtain
your free annual credit report:
*
http://www.annualcreditreport.com
For more information
on identify theft, including how to file a complaint:
*
http://www.consumer.gov/idtheft
For more information
on phishing, spyware, and other online threats:
*
http://onguardonline.gov
*
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/phishing.htm
For more information
on smart investing:
* http://www.finra.org/investor
*
http://www.pathtoinvesting.org
*
http://www.sec.gov/investor.shtml
To receive the
latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information
sign up for Investor News at FINRA.org.
* http://www.finra.org/investor
FINRA.org is
the largest non-governmental regulator for all securities firms
doing business in the United States.
|
|
Beautifying Your Bottom
Line.
by Natalie
Pace.
Tips
to keep your ‘Buy My Own Island’ Fund calm during the market storms.
 |
| Photo by:
Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008 Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel,
818-710-0079 |
Is your bottom
line in the red? In physical beauty, losing can be healthy, but
in fiscal beauty, losses are downright ugly! And even if you like
to file your 401 (k) statements without looking at them, it’s been
pretty hard to avoid the news over the past few months. Surely you’ve
noticed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off almost 2000
points from its high of 14,164 on October 9, 2007. The DJIA closed
at 12,348 on February 15, 2008. Yes, that means that your assets
are likely losing weight, and that is one area where you want to
carry around more than you can handle!
So, how do you
keep your future from wrinkling, aging and sagging before your eyes?
It’s not as hard as you might imagine. Below are 8 easy tips for
weathering the stormy marketplace.
1. Keep a
Percent Equal to Your Age + 10-20% Safe: Safe allocations can
be Treasury Bills, bonds and money markets. Check your plan to see
how much you’ve got allocated in these assets. Whatever your age
is, consider overweighting into safe assets -- keeping an additional
10-20% safe – in case of continued weakening in the stock market
prices. If you’re 60, the amount safe could be as high as 80%. A
recent examination of a friend’s 401 (k) showed that the only two
allocations that were making money were the money markets (at less
than ½%) and the short-term municipal bonds (at almost 2%). While
the money markets were considered very safe in the past, there have
been some very high profile money market funds that were invested
in the subprime markets, so these are not perceived to be as safe
as they were in the past. If you wish to be ultra-cautious about
your safe investments, make sure that your money market investment
is insured. Treasury bills and Government bonds, while hovering
near 2%, were still some the safest, and top performing, asset classes
to be in during the first quarter of 2008.
2. Schedule
another fiscal checkup with your broker in late August: The
new bargain interest rates should kickstart the economy again later
in the year by providing cheap capital to prospective home owners,
business owners and entrepreneurs, according to Dr. Marc Miles,
a respected economist and global strategist, and the former senior
economist for the Heritage Foundation. That should help to ease
defaults and foreclosures, which would put financials in a better
position as well. (Read Dr. Miles’ excellent online chat in this
March ezine.) If the stock prices continue to fall, and the kickstart
occurs later this year, September may be a great time to reinvest
in more stocks. The summer doldrums, during June, July and August,
tend to be weak performing months, while September is historically
the worst performing month of the year. Over half of the stock market
gains are typically made during the last quarter. That’s why I call
September the month of the Back to School Stock Sales – because
you can buy low in anticipation of having a strong holiday season
on Wall Street!
3. Diversify
the rest of the portfolio: There are four sizes of stocks (small,
mid, large and mega-large stocks) and two major classes (growth
and value) of stocks. I like to think of small caps as hares. They
win the dash. In the short term, the hares provide the best return
on investment, but they are also riskier than larger companies.
Bad news can wipe them out.
Large caps are
like Jabba the Hutt. They rule the universe, gobble up hares (buy
them), sideline hares (stop the race with lawsuits and other growth-stopping
techniques), etc. When Jabba loses weight, it’s hard to notice.
The share prices of mega-cap companies don’t go up or down as much
as small caps, but having them in your portfolio provides stability,
especially in tough times.
For additional
diversification, consider adding international investments, clean
energy investments, biotechnology and other regions, sectors and
industries which are expected to outperform the marketplace going
forward.
4. Put another
2% in a tax-free IRA: Let’s say you’re allocating 4% into your
401 (k) and your employer is matching 4%. You are still 2% shy of
the 10% you should be tithing to your "Buy My Own Island"
fund. Open up your own IRA (SEP IRA if you’re self-employed) or
any other tax-protected account at a local brokerage. Allocate the
assets according to steps 1-3 and 5 below. Be sure to keep a percent
equal to your age safe, and to interview to find the best broker
and brokerage available. Tips for "How
To Find a Broker" are available under the Investor
Edu link on the home page at NataliePace.com.
The habit of
tithing to your own future is VERY important, even during bear markets.
The amount of people who are great at market-timing throughout the
world could fit on the top of a fingernail, so the odds that you
miss out on great gains or sell low are greater than the odds that
you’ll get it right. Most of us can rely upon the steady, historical
market gains of 12.4% EVERY YEAR for the last 25 years (source:
Hulbert’s Financial Digest). Steady, habitual stock market investing
performs at almost double the rate of real estate and gold, and
doesn’t require a crystal ball!
5. Hot Industries:
Last year, the top-performing industry on Wall Street was clean
energy, earning almost 60 cents on the dollar! (See the performance
chart, which is located at the end of this article.) But chances
are that your 401 (k) doesn’t have an option to invest in this!
What to do? Allocate some of the money you have in your own IRA
toward these industries! Some hot industries to consider getting
into include: clean energy, technology, health care and biotechnology.
You could also consider having a small portion dedicated to investing
in companies featured on the Hot News on Cool Stocks list. The great
news about trading in your IRA is that you can do so tax-free!
Check out PowerShares.com
and AMEX.com
to select from a large list of Exchange Traded Funds in these industries
and more.
6. Avoid
REITs. REALTOR.org, the National Association of Realtors, is
forecasting that home sales and prices will continue to fall in
2008, which would continue to adversely affect the homebuilders.
Additionally, if the consumer wallet is stretched to the point of
snapping, which it could be given the high prices of gas, food and
the mortgage snap, then retail REITs might be affected as well.
Don’t be fooled by a Summer 2008 mini-rally. Home sales may see
a slight uptick on seasonal strength (everyone likes to buy and
move in the summer) and low interest rates. However, a summer of
love for housing may well be a house of straw – something that blows
down faster than you can say inauguration.
7. International
Exposure: There are some interesting ways to participate in
the international markets, through Exchange Traded Funds and mutual
funds. WisdomTree.com
has a large selection of international ETFs to choose from, and
should be offering international currency funds in the near future
as well. You can find more international ETFs at PowerShares.com
and AMEX.com
as well.
8. Socially
Conscious Investing: The problem with 401 (k)s is that the fund
names give you absolutely no indication of what you’re invested
in! As you’ll see below, however, chances are: you are invested
in oil, cigarettes, defense companies and others that you may not
wish to support.
What choice
do you have, especially if your employer is matching your contribution?
Of course, you want to take the employer’s money! That’s like winning
the lottery every month – free money that you lose if you do not
invest in the 401 (k) (as most employees match their employees’
contribution).
Choosing to
just say no to investing in companies you do not wish to support
requires only about five extra minutes of your time, and is worth
it if you care about putting your money where your mouth is. If
you really want to see the world invested in alternative energy,
then you need to point your money toward clean energy instead of
fossil fuels. If your father died of lung cancer, then you might
want to reconsider investing in Philip Morris Tobacco Company.
If you wish
to find out exactly what the top holdings in your mutual fund are,
it’s VERY easy! Just enter the symbol of the fund in the Company
Research box, which is located on the home page at NataliePace.com
(in the middle column, near the bottom). When you click on Research
Now, you will be directed to a mutual fund page. From there, just
click on Top 25 Holdings! It’s that easy!
Once you discover
what you own and decide to own different companies and industries,
it is not all that difficult to make another choice. First, ask
your employer to find a firm that offers investment choices that
are more aligned with the ethos of the company and the employees
you work with (assuming they would rather invest in clean energy
and health, instead of oil, death, war and cigarettes). Weight your
investment dollars in Government bonds, money markets and small
and mid cap companies until they do. (The largest companies are
the ones that are the oldest, most popular and likely involved in
old-school products, goods and services.) Younger, innovative companies,
for the most part, tend to have a smaller capitalization on Wall
Street, so investing in smaller companies is one simple way of just
saying no, until you have more choices. Smaller companies produce
high returns than larger companies any way. Though there is more
risk attached to smaller companies, your risk is reduced by investing
in funds because the funds hold many companies at the same time.
See below for
the top holdings in some of the most popular mutual funds.
Top
Holdings of the 4 Most Popular Funds
|
Company
|
Symbol
|
Top
holdings
|
|
American
Funds Growth Fund
|
AGTHX
|
Google,
Microsoft, Schlumberger (oilfield services), Cisco, Roche,
Oracle, Fannie Mae (housing), General Electric, Target,
Lowes, Medtronic, Sprint, Nokia, Altria (cigarettes), Suncor
(oil), Yahoo, AIG, Las Vegas Sands, Time Warner, Baker Hughes
(oilfield services), Canadian Natural Resources (oil), Carnival
Corporation (cruises), Devon Energy (oil and gas), Caterpillar
(construction machinery).
|
|
American
Funds Capital World
G/I A
|
CWGIX
|
E.On
(Germany energy – renewable!), RWE (German utility – renewable),
Banco Santander (bank), Bayer (aspirin and seeds), Diageo
(alcoholic beverages), Novo-Nordisk (diabetes), Roche Holding
(healthcare), Microsoft, Koninklijke, AT&T, Vivendi,
Vodafone, Citigroup, GE, Michelin (tires), HSBC, Chevron
(oil), Royal Dutch Shell (oil), China Steel, AXA (financial
services).
|
|
American
Funds Capital Inc. Bldr. A
|
CAIBX
|
AT&T,
E.ON, Verizon, GE, Chevron, Veolia Environnement (environmental
solutions), Koninklijke KPN, Exelon Crop (utility), RWE,
Banco Santander, Sasol Ltd. (oil and gas), HSBC, Fannie
Mae (housing), Merck (pharmaceuticals), Altria (cigarettes),
Bank of America, Freddie Mac, France Telecom, Citigroup.
|
|
American
Funds Investment Company of America
|
AIVSX
|
AT&T,
Altria (cigarettes), Schlumberger (oilfield services), GE,
Oracle, Microsoft, Chevron (oil), Citigroup, Fannie Mae,
Lowe’s, Royal Dutch Shell (oil), IBM, PepsiCo, Nokia, Hewlett-Packard,
Bank of America, Intel, Target, Roche Holdings (pharmaceuticals),
Amgen (biotechnology), Cisco, Sprint, Abbott Labs, Texas
Instruments, Washington Mutual (banking).
|
Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
2007
Stock Market Performance, By Industry
|
|
Symbol
|
12/29/06
|
12/31/07
|
%
Change
|
|
Dow Industrials
|
INDU
|
12,463.15
|
13,264.82
|
6.43%
|
|
Nasdaq Composite
|
COMPQ
|
2,415.29
|
2,652.28
|
9.81%
|
|
S&P 500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,418.30
|
1,468.36
|
3.53%
|
|
Russell 3000
|
RUAZ
|
822.13
|
849.22
|
3.30%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clean
Energy
|
ECO
|
182.01
|
288.21
|
58.35%
|
|
Energy
|
SPENS
|
455.53
|
603.04
|
32.38%
|
|
Utilities
|
SPUT
|
186.60
|
216.11
|
15.81%
|
|
Technology
|
SPHTI
|
356.28
|
411.62
|
15.54%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
SPCNS
|
268.41
|
299.55
|
11.60%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
IXI
|
352.16
|
392.20
|
11.37%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
SPIN
|
322.63
|
354.35
|
9.83%
|
|
Health
Care
|
HCX
|
388.74
|
409.70
|
5.39%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
754.25
|
786.50
|
4.28%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
4,560.20
|
4,570.55
|
0.23%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
SPCCS
|
302.92
|
259.53
|
-14.32%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
SICSS
|
200.59
|
171.71
|
-14.40%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
1,090.63
|
870.64
|
-20.17%
|
|
Financials
|
SPFN
|
495.31
|
392.08
|
-20.84%
|
Source: Thomson
One Financial, Thomson Baseline
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Enlightened
Investors, Not Market Timers, Crystal Ball Readers and Chart Junkies,
Earn Great Gains.
by Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment
Quality Trends.
Select
Blue Chips – Summary

|
Category
|
Stocks
|
Percent
|
|
Undervalued
stocks
|
84
|
28.2%
|
|
Overvalued
stocks
|
74
|
24.8%
|
|
Rising
Trends
|
47
|
15.8%
|
|
Declining
Trends
|
93
|
31.2%
|
|
ALL
|
298
|
100%
|
80% Undervalued
stocks coincides with historic market bottoms.
17%
Undervalued stocks coincides with historic market tops.
Footnote
Legend
U - Undervalued
buying area: Dividend yield is historically high and
price is attractively
low. Bargain buys.
O -
Overvalued selling area: Dividend yield is historically
low and price is unattractively
high. A sale should be considered in this area.
R -
Rising Trends: Stocks have moved at least 10% from Undervalue
and should
be held until price is at or near Overvalue.
D -
Declining Trends: Stocks have moved down at least 10% from Overvalue
and should be avoided
Investment
Outlook
 |
| Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, IQTrends.com stock newsletter |
Mid-February
2008
As usual, I
learned a great deal from the questions I received at my three presentations
and the two panels I participated in at The World Money Show Orlando.
The three primary areas of concern were: 1) are we in recession
and if not will we be in recession; 2) Is this a bear market and
if not will we be in a bear market; and 3) Have the financials and
home building stocks bottomed and if not when will they?
What we can
glean from these three areas of concern is that the majority of
investors are fixated on events that are simply out of their control.
The rhetorical question I posed in response to these queries was:
"Let’s suppose we know the answers to these questions. Now,
what do you do with that information?" By a wide margin the
typical response was "We will know when and what to invest
in." Aha, therein lays the rub.
Market timing
(entering and exiting trades for maximum profit and minimum risk)
is difficult. It requires almost 100% accuracy. There are a few
people that possess this skill set, but they are very few and very
far between. Also, in my experience, those that do possess this
capability have an extremely difficult time teaching it to others.
The fact is that successful market timing is as much a gift as it
is a method and is hugely dependent on the subjectivity of the practitioner.
That the word
recession strikes such fear in the minds of investors is due in
large part to the financial media. A recession in simple terms is
two consecutive quarters (six months) of negative growth in GDP
(gross domestic product). Stated more simply, a recession is a period
of economic contraction. The simple fact is that economies expand
and contract; one begets the other. The same principle can be seen
in the seasons; growth emerges in the spring, accelerates in the
summer, is realized (harvested) in the fall and goes dormant to
rest in the winter. This natural order also applies to markets on
a macro level and to stocks on a micro level. The seeds for every
bear market are sown in the preceding bull market as are the seeds
of every stock decline are sown in the preceding advance. Excesses,
whether to the upside or the downside, are unnatural, unsustainable
and therefore must be eliminated.
Preoccupation
with stocks and/or sectors that were the previous leaders is, unfortunately,
a tendency for most investors to pursue. On some level, perhaps,
it seems logical that what once traded at X price must certainly
return. Generally though, new leadership emerges at the onset of
every new bull phase. Equally unfortunate is that when the majority
of investors finally accept the change in leadership these securities
typically no longer offer good value. Bad habits being difficult
to break, however, the persistency of chasing performance after
the fact inevitably leads to negative returns, frustration and often,
resignation.
The remedy for
these situations, in our experience, is easily attainable. Rather
than fixating on events out of our control, attempting investment
methodologies that are outside of our skill set, or being preoccupied
with previous leaders, we suggest that investors focus on what has
proven to work over the long-term; quality and value. High-quality
stocks with proven track records of increasing dividends offer the
greatest potential for capital appreciation, income from dividends
and a growing income stream from increasing dividends. Purchased
at historically repetitive areas of undervalue, these stocks will
be the new leaders when the next bull phase gets underway.
Can these stocks
be buffeted by the winds of sentiment that accompany a recession
or a bull market? Of course; even high-quality stocks are not impervious
to the short-term gyrations of Mr. Market. Generally though, these
stocks will stay within a 10% range of their undervalue areas with
the dividends providing a floor of safety. With diversification
as an ally, a portfolio of Select Blue Chips will withstand most
periods of high volatility and will reward the patient, enlightened
investor, for years to come.
Since we put
the mid-month issue to bed late Wednesday night, sentiment, for
the short-term anyway, has shifted again.
I have never
put too much stock in using formulas to measure the stage of the
market; i.e. 20% off the highs equals a bear market. While that
might make commentary easy, ribbons, bows and nice little boxes
are for gifts, not for investment capital.
I would suggest
you can tell where the market is by simply observing its behavior,
and in that vein this market is exhibiting bearish characteristics.
This is to say
that sharp rallies, on seemingly "good" news, stop abruptly and
turn tail. What this tells us is that primary sentiment is negative.
As long as the primary sentiment remains negative we will continue
to see this type of market action. As long as we stay in a range
however, and don't break to new lows, we should be encouraged that
the market has probably discounted the worse case scenarios and
is just working off the remaining excesses.
The Dow Jones
Utility Average is an interesting case study at this juncture.
After making
a new high the Average has settled down and is meandering right
around its historical area of Overvalue. With the Fed finally engaged
and apparently ready to cut more if necessary, one would think the
Utilities would be moving steadily higher. The fact that the Utilities
appear stagnant leads me to believe that "the smart money" is anticipating
that the Fed's cutting campaign is actually closer to the end than
the beginning. If true this would explain the lack of movement in
this predictive sector.
If rates remain
flat for a time and then begin to move higher, I would suggest that
we will see new sectors of the market start to emerge. Those will
be the new leaders and will tell us a lot about what kind of market
environment we will be dealing with.
With the large
number of financials aside, the Undervalued category is as eclectic
a collection of companies that we have seen in some time. My thought
is that more than a few will be in this new leadership group.
The
Timely Ten
Investment
Quality Trends primary purpose is to assist subscribers in growing
their capital and income base from which to derive cash for their
current and future needs. To that end we believe that high-quality
stocks purchased at historically low-price-to-high-yield offers
the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.
For subscribers
to effectively mirror our Model Portfolio for performance tracking
purposes (every stock in the Undervalued and Rising Trend categories),
would require holding one hundred thirty stocks as of the First-February
issue; clearly too many positions to be practical. The Timely Ten,
therefore, is not just another "best of, right now" list.
It is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience
for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.
Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately?
Of course not. Our four decades of research and experience, however,
leads us to believe that these stocks, purchased at current Undervalued
levels, are well positioned for appreciation.
Whether you
are looking to build a portfolio from scratch, are partially invested
and looking to add new positions, or fully invested and in need
of some affirmation and hand holding, The Timely Ten represents
our top ten recommendations as of each issue. Short of utilizing
the personal investment management services of our sister company,
this is as close to hands on advic you can get.
The Timely Ten
consists of Undervalued stocks that generally have a S&P
Dividend & Earnings Quality rating of A- or better, a "G"
designation for exemplary long-term dividend growth, a P/E ratio
of 15 or less, a payout ratio of 50% or less (75% for Utilities),
debt of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), and technical characteristics
on the daily and weekly charts that suggests the potential for imminent
capital appreciation. This issue’s selections are:
|
Rank
|
Previous
Rank
|
Stock
Name
|
Ticker
Symbol
|
|
1
|
6
|
McDonald’s
|
MCD
|
|
2
|
2
|
Rohmand
Haas
|
ROH
|
|
3
|
1
|
General
Electric
|
GE
|
|
4
|
3
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
JNJ
|
|
5
|
8
|
Bemis
Co.
|
BMS
|
|
6
|
4
|
PepsiCo
|
PEP
|
|
7
|
7
|
Wal-Mart
Stores
|
WMT
|
|
8
|
10
|
Carnival
Corp.
|
CCL
|
|
9
|
9
|
Bank of
America
|
BAC
|
|
10
|
--
|
Teleflex
Inc.
|
TFX
|
Kelley Wright
is currently performing at the top all of his peers on Wall Street
for the past 20 years, in the top 10 of all-star performance, and
#4 in risk-adjusted performance. Kelley’s stock newsletter, IQTrends.com,
is earning 12.5% in annualized gains over the past 20 years, according
to Hulbert’s
Financial Digest, compared to general stock market performance
of 11.8% (as of January 2008). IQTrends.com also has lower risk
and volatility than the market average. To subscribe, go to IQTrends.com.
DON’T MISS:
Online Chat with Kelley Wright, #1 Blue Chip Stock Picker
Wednesday,
March 19th, 2008
8:45AM
through 9:30AM PT
Natalie Pace
hosts an online chat for subscribers with the #1 blue chip stock
picker Kelley Wright, managing editor, Investment Quality Trends
stock newsletter. Learn tricks to recession-proof your portfolio
and add superior Blue Chip value stocks to your holdings now!
REGULATORY
REMINDER Please keep in mind that as an investment newsletter, the
staff at Investment Quality Trends are legally bound to only answer
questions of a general nature and are unable to provide specific
buy/sell recommendations or specific advice on an individual basis.
For those interested in obtaining more information on individual
management services in accordance with our approach, our sister
company, I.Q. Trends Private Client Asset Management, is a Registered
Investment Adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Among the platforms available through I.Q. Trends Private Client
are individual portfolio consultations and active account management.
For more information, please contact Mr. Michael Minney at (858)
427-1071. Disclosure documents are located at: http://www.iqtrendsprivateclient.com.
|
|

Are
We Headed Into a Recession?
Subscribers
Chat with Global Strategist Dr. Marc Miles.
Dr.
Marc Miles is a respected economist and global strategist. He is
the former senior economist for the Heritage Foundation, the editor
of the 2006 Index of Economic Freedom and one of NataliePace.com’s
most trusted sources of economic wisdom. On February 20, 2008, NataliePace.com
subscribers chatted with Dr. Miles online.
Are we headed
into a recession?
We are going
through a period of slow growth. Will we have a recession? Probably
not. However, the first and second quarters of 2008 will have slow
growth. How slow? Probably .5-1.5 percent.
What’s going
to happen in the second quarter of 2008? Have we hit the bottom?
Is it time to start buying stocks again?
The thing to
watch out for at this point is the turnaround in the economy. That
turnaround will probably coincide with the view of people in the
market that the Fed is close to the bottom of where it will allow
the Fed funds rate to go. I suspect that will occur in the May-June
period, but it might not be until July. The important thing for
investors is that the worst case scenario is already priced into
the market. What is likely to have the greatest effect on the market
is an upward surprise. That will start coming in industrial production
and some other indication around mid-year.
Has the U.S.
dollar hit rock bottom yet?
The dollar seems
to have turned the corner. Notice for example that the rate relative
to the British pound has risen from around $2.04 to the pound to
only $1.94 to the pound. The rate against the Euro is also improving.
The implication is that the dollar price of commodities is near
the peak. Remember that the low prices of both oil and gold were
in periods of a strong dollar. The dollar will strengthen over the
next three years (assuming that there is no major outside event).
The U.S.
consumer is getting hit with higher mortgage costs, higher gasoline
prices. Real estate values may be dropping, but they are still above
affordability in many areas. Do you see inflation as being a factor?
Inflation typically
rises as the dollar falls and the dollar price of commodities rises.
So, yes we are likely to have higher inflation this year. But as
the dollar strengthens, that inflation will lessen.
What industries
would you be looking at? When I see blue chips like Coca-Cola trading
for a PE of 22.60 when we’ve got anemic growth, I start to worry
that the correction hasn’t gotten deep enough yet. Your thoughts?
The multiple
on stocks is very sensitive to interest rates. The lower the interest
rates, the higher the multiple. Remember that interest rates are
coming down, so a higher multiple is to be expected. I don’t know
which earnings you are looking at to compute your multiple. Typically
the market is most interested in forward earnings, not those in
the rear view mirror. Notice that Wal-Mart had good results as the
economy softened. Consumer staples are likely to perform relatively
well during this period also.
What countries
do you think are poised for the most growth in the coming years?
Look for countries
that can adjust most easily to the changing global environment.
Western European countries have problems changing when the economy
turns down because of more rigid labor and other laws. The exception
tends to be the United Kingdom. Also, look for countries like Hong
Kong and Singapore to do well. The emerging financial markets in
the Middle East like Dubai and Qatar will also do very well.
How does
the average investor get in on these investments?
Chances are
that most investors do not know the details of these markets. Rely
on someone who does. There may be Middle East mutual funds that
are particularly heavily invested in these areas. A better bet would
be an Exchange Traded Fund. There are so many out there today, surely
you can find one that suits your needs.
Natalie’s
Note on ETFs:
Wisdom
Tree India Earnings Index (Symbol: EPI) is an ETF invested in India.
PowerShares Dynamic Asia Pacific (Symbol: PUA) is an ETF with top
holdings in Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore.
Powershares International Real Estate Portfolio (Symbol: PRY) is
an ETF with top real estate holdings in Hong Kong, Japan, Australia
and United Kingdom
Citigroup (Symbol: C) has branches in the United Arab Emirates (Dubai)
and China.
Good luck finding ETFs focused on Dubai and Qatar. If you find one,
be sure to contact us!
I have positions
in World Water and Solar (Symbol: WWAT), Hoku Scientific (Symbol:
HOKU), Suntech Power Holdings (Symbol: STP) and MEMC Electronics
(Symbol: WFR). They are continuing to drop. Do you still have high
hopes for them?
Natalie Pace:
Dr. Miles, as you know, clean energy was the top performing industry
in 2007. What do you see going forward?
Dr. Miles: Green
is hot. Not only is the private demand rising, but governments are
falling over themselves to subsidize these industries. I expect
some great innovations from this sector in the next few years. Instead
of just Macworld, people will be looking at annual conventions of
green companies to see what goodies are on the horizon.
Natalie Pace:
Green conventions are happening every week in every country of the
world right now!
Dr. Miles: Consider
the growth of hybrid cars. A few years ago, only Toyota and Honda
offered cars in this area. Now look at what General Motors is offering.
Solar panels will be in high demand, especially with the rising
energy costs. People have insulated. Now what? How can they save
on energy costs?
Won’t the
housing bubble and construction slow down hammer the green movement
for a bit?
The lead in
green technology is occurring not in the housing sector, but in
the industrial sector. Companies have been looking for ways to cut
their costs for years. Also, wind turbines and other generators
are not directly related to the housing market.
Have gold,
metals, lumber and other commodities seen their day?
I would be skeptical
of the commodity sectors at this time. Trees don’t grow to the sky
forever, and commodities have had a quite a run. With the dollar
turning the corner, commodities should flatten soon.
What about
financials? Is it time to buy back in?
Financials have
been battered and people think the worst. Yet the falling interest
rates promises to improve the market. Also the increase in the ceiling
on mortgages that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy promises to
improve the balance sheets of banks. Think about it. Where people
had to buy jumbo mortgages before, they can now buy conventional
mortgages. Combine that with lower rates, and a lot of people who
are in the subprime mess will now qualify for conventional mortgages.
As their subprimes are paid off, more cash flows through the SIVs
(Structured Investment Vehicles) making them worth more, increasing
the capital on bank’s balance sheets, and permitting additional
lending. There is upside potential in financials.
Do you think
that fears of a global, worldwide recession are overblown? Do you
see the current US recession as likely to be deep and protracted
or relatively short and minor?
Look at how
negative your questions are. Remember, if you think the world is
headed for the dumps, chances are this view is already priced into
the market. The surprise will be in the upward direction. The world
is not headed for another 1933! The pessimism that pervades today
is very similar to that in the fall of 1990 when oil started to
rise and the U.S. was fighting Iraq for the first time. Investors
were blind-sided by the sudden turnaround in equity and bond markets
in October that year. Don’t be one who is blind-sided. Look at where
the surprise will be, not at what the nightly news is touting.
What other
industries do you see as up and coming? What sectors would you avoid?
I think the
Chinese market is overblown right now. Just as people are too negative
about the U.S. market, investors are too hopeful about the Chinese
market, so be careful! Yes, China is growing very fast. Yes, it
has tremendous potential. Yes, it is the low cost producer in electronics
and related areas. But don’t you think that is priced into stock
prices already? The Chinese market is risky at this point.
What about
Canadians who wish to invest in the United States stock market?
Last year, Canadians saw their dollar increase in value. How does
this affect the gains they can make on U.S. stock investments?
They may have
taken a Canadian dollar hit on their U.S. investment, but since
the Canadian dollar’s purchasing power is up, that is offset. Don’t
look at just the number of Canadian dollars you have. Think about
what they will buy on global markets. I am personally concerned
that as the U.S. dollar has dived, the value of my investments in
my IRAS and 401 (k)s has fallen in terms of purchasing power. That
is much more important!
Should we
be buying bank and insurance stocks right now?
Insurance companies
are part of my general comment on financials. They have taken some
of the biggest hits on SIVs and other vehicles. Again, lower rates
bode well for them. A turnaround in the economy bodes well for their
balance sheets. There are opportunities for upside potential.
What are
SIVs?
SIVs represent
a bundle of little pieces of many different mortgages. In part,
they were backed by subprime mortgages, so as people defaulted the
expected cash flow to SIV holders fell and these assets were worth
less. But now there is hope of more cash flow and upside potential.
Don’t miss
upcoming chats and teleconferences with Natalie Pace, Kelley Wright,
Gary Kobat and much more! Check the calendar section of the NataliePace.com
website frequently for opportunities to have your questions answered
by respected, experienced professionals in the field. Chats and
teleconferences are completely anonymous, so you can ask even the
most basic of questions without having to feel embarrassed.
Disclaimers:
NataliePace.com
is providing you with news and important information, but you need
to consult your certified financial planner to determine your best
strategy for using the information. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage
and doesn’t operate or act like one. We are an online news service
with a mission of providing the news and information you need to
succeed. Always consult a trusted financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
The opinions
of Dr. Marc Miles do not represent the opinions of NataliePace.com.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Green Rocks While Wall
Street Rolls Over.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
Track
Record of our Reporting
The
Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record
– in bear and bull market years. 40 companies listed below performed
well, versus just 17 that went in the opposite direction of the
reporting. Even during the flat year of 2007, our featured companies
had outstanding performance between Oct. 2006 and June 2007! 4 out
of 9 companies – almost half – doubled or more. 48% of the companies
featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and 2005 – 25 out of
52 companies -- DOUBLED from the time we listed them in our feature
article to the time when I took the company off of the Hot News
on Cool Stocks list, and the majority of the remaining 52% well
outperformed the marketplace. (See the chart in the article, "25
of Our Companies Have Doubled," from volume 4, issue
4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
3 out of
5 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year have posted up to 9000%
gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively. MySpace, my 2006 Company of
the Year, has been a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders.
Only OSI Pharmaceuticals, my 2005 Company of the Year, has
lost money. So three out of five are superperformers, one
is performing well above the market and one is down. That’s the
kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street. (I launched
my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company
of the Year on 1.1.03.)
Additionally,
the market performance of the companies that are featured in my
Hot News on Cool Stocks list has kept me at the top of over 830
A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com.
I’ve repeatedly occupied the #1 position. TipsTraders.com listed
me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, in 2006 and 2007.
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2006
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Friday, 2.29.2008
|
Gains 2-year
, 1-year & 3 mo.
|
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 12,266.39
|
+13% & -2% & - 6%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,243.74
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 2,271.48
|
+ 1% & -6% & -13%
|
|
S&P: 1,268.80
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 1,330.63
|
+ 5% & -6% & - 8%
|
Commentary:
Trading Tips for Turbulent Time
We
issued a 911 UPDATE ON THE HOT NEWS ON COOL STOCKS LIST
January 30,
2008 at 5:15 p.m.
This update
is still available online at the Sharing
Wisdom bulletin board in the topic of the same name.
You will notice
that in the January 30, 2008 special report, we removed most of
the companies from the Hot News list, moving everything except for
U.S. Gold and Yahoo over to the Watch List. U.S. Gold remained on
the Hot News list (and was highlighted as being in good buying range),
and Yahoo was deleted from the list (but not added to the Watch
list).
When I say "moved
from the Hot List to the Watch List" that means that we were
locking in the gains (or losses) of the share price performance
of the companies reported on during the time that they were on the
Hot News list. Please note that I am not allowed to trade all of
the companies that I report on, so you cannot "cheat"
and just invest in the companies that you see me invested in. If
I report on a company and then you buy it, that is not fair (or
legal) because the value of my investments are all but guaranteed
to go up. Thus, I do not own most of the companies I feature. (It
is much easier for me to invest in different companies for my own
portfolio that I do not report on).
The reason I
mention this is that everyone is trying to look for a quick, easy
way to millions, and that is counter to what our website advocates.
The money managers, economists and advisors who contribute to NataliePace.com
all agree on one thing. Getting wealthy is a matter of discipline,
regular investing, taking a long term approach, proper asset allocation
and having a great financial partner to assist you in the process.
Before you try your hand at picking individual stocks, you need
to understand the difference between your ‘Buy My Own Island’ fund
(retirement plan) and your trading portfolio. It is never recommended
that you trade your nest egg. Whether you are a novice investor
or a veteran, you should not have too much of your liquid assets
invested in the stock market, and you should never be investing
more in individual companies and positions than you are willing
to lose money on.
For more "Trading
Tips for Turbulent Times" and how to "Recession-Proof
Your Portfolio," read the articles in the February
1, 2008 ezine, which is archived at NataliePace.com in the online
magazines section.
Current Economic
Conditions:
According
to Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, speaking on February 27, 2008 in his
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Committee on Financial
Services, U.S. House of Representatives:
1. The recently
enacted fiscal stimulus package should encourage Americans to spend
during the second half of 2008 and the first part of 2009.
2. Business,
outside of the financial sector, is in good financial condition,
with strong profits, liquid balance sheets, and corporate leverage
near historical lows.
3. Real GDP
is forecasted to grow a dismal 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent in 2008.
If this works out as planned, the United States will avoid a recession
in 2008. As you can see from the aggressive rate cutting that the
Feds have been doing since September of 2007, the Feds are bending
over backwards to ensure that candidates have a reasonably decent
economy for the 2008 election cycle.
4. The housing
and financial markets are not expected to recover until 2010. These
sectors will likely continue to experience weakness in 2008 and
2009.
5. Consumer
price inflation has spiked, largely on the price of oil. Food prices
are also significantly higher, and the dollar has declined. Ouch
for the average American’s wallet! Expect to see this play out as
reduced consumer spending on discretionary items.
You can read
this report firsthand at Federalreserve.gov.
Market Movers:
According
to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
on February 28, 2008, real gross domestic product (the output of
goods and services produced by labor and property located in the
United States) increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2007. This is a grinding halt compared to the
reasonably robust 4.9 percent GDP growth in the third quarter of
2007, and was MUCH bigger news than the 50 point Federal Reserve
rate cut of January 30, 2008. This may not have made headlines yet
because these are preliminary numbers, not the final report. The
finalized GDP growth numbers are scheduled to be released on March
27, 2008 at 8:30 a.m.
On the mid-month
update of February 11th, I reported that I wouldn’t expect
anything but bad news on February 28th or March 27th.
Investors historically do not respond favorably to stalled growth.
True to our
forecasts, the markets were down last week.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
For more BEA
release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Federal Open Market Committee has dropped the Fed Fund Rate each
of the last four sessions. The Fed funds rate currently stands at
three percent. While the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will
continue to try to ease investor worries, and perhaps even drop
the rate again at the March 18th meeting, the prevailing
sentiment is still weak growth, a continued housing slump, more
subprime foreclosures, a weak dollar, moderate consumer spending
and rising unemployment. As such, any rally near the 18th
might be met with another downturn at the end of the month, when
the Bureau of Economic Analysis reminds us that real GDP growth
in the 4th quarter of 2007 was almost flat, just a hair’s
breath in the positive.
Volatility prevails.
In your nest egg, take a long term view and make sure that your
assets are properly allocated. Keep a percentage equal to your age
+ 10-20% safe, i.e. not invested in the stock market (which means
NOT invested in mutual funds, ETFs or bond funds). Safer investments
include bonds, Treasury Bills, money markets, certificates of deposits,
etc. FYI: Modern portfolio theory recommends that you always keep
a percent equal to your age safe. Adding 10-20% is called overweighting
into the safe categories, which is a good idea in turbulent, down-trending
markets.
If Dr.
Marc Miles, global strategist, is correct in his forecasts,
the bottom of the market should occur between May and July of 2008.
For more of Dr. Miles’ observations, be sure to read the transcript
of his online chat in the March 2008 NataliePace.com ezine.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the January 30, 2008 FOMC meeting for yourself? You
can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! According to the minutes,
"With housing activity and house prices still declining
and with financial conditions for businesses and households
tightening further, significant uncertainties surrounded this
outlook and the risks to economic growth in the near term appeared
to be weighted to the downside. Indeed, several participants
noted that the risks of a downturn in the economy were significant."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2008 calendar is: March 18, 2008
(Tuesday), April 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 24-25,
2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 5, 2008 (Tuesday), September
16, 2008 (Tuesday), October 28-29, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
December 16, 2008 (Tuesday). The fact that the Federal Open
Market Committee decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions
from two to four in 2008 is an indicator of the concern in the
economy at this juncture.
- Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the
Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many
wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, life coaches, economists, respected money gurus,
real estate veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates
of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication
date of our next ezine. Get more information on how to best
use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor
Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
- Survey
Results: Who
is your favorite Presidential candidate? What will be the top
performing asset class in 2008? Make your opinion count with
our online surveys.
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your
certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment
strategy.
Full disclosure:
Natalie Pace sold AU Optronics, Conergy, eBay, Echelon, UQM Technologies
on February 1, 2008 (two days after the 911 bulletin was published).
Hot News
List (highlighted)
Conergy
(CEYHF)
Echelon
(ELON)
Emcore
(EMKR)
General
Electric (GE)
Google
(GOOG)
Johnson
& Johnson (JNJ)
Microsoft
(MSFT)
OSI
Pharmaceuticals (OSIP)
U.S.
Gold (UXG)
Wisdom
Tree (WSDT)
Zoltec
(ZOLT)
Deletions
from Hot List and moved to Watch List on January 30, 2008
All of the
following companies are fantastic companies. They were removed from
the Hot List on January 30, 2008 in order to take advantage of gains
or to sit on the sidelines while market turbulence continues. The
gains and losses listed below are based upon the closing price on
1.30.08. Please note that some of these companies have been re-added
to the Hot News list this month, at a lower buy-in price point.
Altair Nanotechnology
(ALTI), gains of 23% (as of 1.30.08)
American
Superconductor Corp (AMSC), losses
of 21%
Apple
Computer (AAPL), gains of 55% and 57%
AU
Optronics (AUO), gains of 2%
Citigroup
(C), losses
of 45%
Conergy
(CEYHF), losses
of 45%
Eastern
Europe -- U.S. Global Investors (EUROX), gains of 29%
eBay
(EBAY), losses
of 12%
Echelon
(ELON), losses
of 37.5%
Energy
Conversion Devices (ENER), losses
of 15%
Genentech
(DNA), gains of 415%
Google
(GOOG), gains of 545%
Hoku
Scientific (HOKU), losses
of 6%
Intel
(INTC), gains of 8%
Johnson
& Johnson (JNJ), gains of 1%
Krispy
Kreme (KKD), losses
of 92%
MEMC Electronics
(WFR), gains of 103%
Netgear
(NTGR), gains of 114%
OSI
Pharmaceuticals (OSIP), losses
of 46%
and gains of 17%
Satcon
(SATC), gains of +43% and +71%
Smith
& Nephew (SNN), +8% and +15%
SOHU
(SOHU), gains of 150%
SunTech
Holdings Co. Ltd (STP), gains of 107% and 57%
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean (TREMX), gains of 62%
Trina
Solar Limited (TSL), losses
of 15%
UQM Technologies
(UQM), losses
of 36%
World
Water & Solar, (WWAT), gains of 181%
Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio, a Green ETF (PBW), gains of 28%
Wisdom
Tree (WSDT), losses
of 63%
and gains of 12%
Zoltec (ZOLT),
losses
of 15%
Removed from
the Hot News List altogether
Yahoo
(YHOO), losses
of 31%
HOT NEWS
ON COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price 2.29.08
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Conergy
Based
out of Germany
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
CEYHF
|
$22.50
|
$22.50
|
$96.14
$15.65
|
--
|
|
See the
Wind
Power article in
vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech
Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems
integration. Also, since this is a German company that is
trading near it’s 52-week low, it may have a different outlook
than American companies that are trading at a high.
|
|
Echelon
RISK:
MED/HIGH
|
No
|
ELON
|
$11.23
|
$11.23
|
$32.49
$8.65
|
--
|
|
Read the
article, "Green
San Jose Company,"
in vol. 4, iss. 8. In August 2007, Governor Schwarzenegger
(CA) took Secretary General of the U.N. Ban Ki-Moon on a tour
of Echelon’s HQ in Silicon Valley the week before ELON confirmed
an order from Russia valued at $35 million. On July 10, 2007,
Echelon signed a contract with McDonald's to help it reduce
energy costs and improve efficiency. For the quarter ended
December 31, 2007, revenues were $46.9 million compared to
revenue of $13.9 million for the same period in 2006. For
the year ended December 31, 2007 revenues were $137.6 million
compared to revenues of $57.3 million for the year prior.
The GAAP net loss for the year was $14.5 million, or $0.36
cents per share compared to a net loss of $24.4 million, or
$0.62 cents per share for the prior year.
|
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$11.02
|
$11.02
|
$14.98
$3.84
|
--
|
|
EMCORE
Corp (EMCORE), is a provider of compound semiconductor-based
components and subsystems for the broadband, fiber optic,
satellite and terrestrial solar power markets. The Company
operates in two segments: Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics.
Missed earnings estimates on 12.18.07. This $628 million dollar
company had $178 million in sales and $60 million in losses
last year. Growth in sales year over year is 20%. Current
backlog for their CPV receivers is $86 million, and on February
27, 2008, the company announced $39 million in additional
orders from Green and Gold Energy.
|
|
General
Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$33.14
|
$33.14
|
$41.16
$32.20
|
--
|
|
See the
article, "Green
San Jose Company," in vol. 4, iss. 8. Renewable Energy
Systems (RES) Americas Inc. of Austin, Texas, one of the leading
wind developers in North America, signed agreements in February
2008 exceeding $700 million to receive GE Energy 1.5-megawatt
wind turbines for projects in 2009 and 2010. Since 2004, GE
has achieved a 500 percent increase in wind turbine production,
and its wind business revenues exceeded $4.5 billion in 2007.
According to the American Wind Energy Association, over the
past two years, GE has supplied wind turbines representing
nearly half of the new wind capacity across the United States.
GE's 1.5-megawatt wind turbine is among the most widely used
machines in the global wind industry, with more than 8,000
installed around the world.
With a
market value of $331 billion, a dividend yield of 3.67% and
worldwide revenues of $173 billion, General Electric is definitely
a giant, Jabba the Hutt type stabilizing force for your long-term
"Buy My Own Island" Fund. Big companies like GE
trade within a narrow range, but the stability they add to
the portfolio, in addition to the dividends they pay, can
be delightful.
|
|
Google
(Green)
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$471.18
|
$471.18
|
$747.24
$437.00
|
--
|
|
Announced
4Q results on Jan. 31, 2008. See my original article, "Google:
the People’s IPO," in NataliePace.com archived ezine,
vol. 1, iss. 48. Owns YouTube.com, one of the most popular
sites on the web (which got hit with a billion dollar lawsuit
from Viacom on 3.13.07 that is still pending). Dr. Eric Schmidt
was one of our Executives
of the Year
in 2007. Read the article
in vol. 4, iss. 1. The growth continues to be amazing, and
the share price continues to be amazingly volatile! The savvy
day-trader would buy on disappointment and sell on hot headlines.
The long-term investor would buy at the 52-week low and hold
to will to the kids. (Notice that Google is FINALLY highlighted
and is considered to FINALLY be a good buy right now.)
Google
has a major emphasis on renewable energy and reducing greenhouse
gases. Check out ClimateSaversComputing.org and Google’s renewable
energy page. Google is doing R&D to build 1 gigawatt of
renewable energy power, which would be sufficient to power
the city of San Francisco.
Cash -
As of December 31, 2007, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable
securities were $14.2 billion. 2007 revenues: $16.6 billion,
compared to $10.6 billion in 2006. Net income: $4.2 billion,
compared to $3.1 billion last year.
|
|
Johnson
& Johnson
DIVIDENDS!
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
JNJ
|
$61.96
|
$61.96
|
$69.41
$59.77
|
--
|
|
Read the
article, "Bionic
Baby Boomers,"
in vol. 4, iss. 7. Johnson & Johnson is a mega-cap corporation
with many products, and a small presence in the hip resurfacing
arena. Growth is 16% annually. Stable, dividend-paying Blue
Chip.
JNJ is
listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index, the FTSE4Good
Index and Our Company has an "AAA" sustainability
rating from Innovest Strategic Advisors. Awards include: Green
Power Partner of the Year (2005), the EPA’s Climate Protection
Award (2005). 9 JNJ companies based in CA received the Governor's
Environmental and Economic Leadership Award in 2005 for sustainable
practices, in particular for their renewable energy efforts
and greenhouse gas reductions.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$27.20
|
$27.20
|
$37.60
$26.60
|
--
|
|
World’s
largest software company. $58 billion in revenue and $17 billion
in income last year. Has $23 billion in cash and short-term
investments, according to the 2nd quarter 2008
earnings report.
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
RISK:
HIGH (U.S.)
2005 Company
of the Year
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$35.95
|
$35.95
|
$52.00
$28.68
|
--
|
|
Announced
earnings on February 21, 2008. NataliePace.com’s 2005
Company of the Year.
Read vol. 1, iss. 56. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer
pill," and sales have been exploding. OSIP is a partner
of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva
as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer.
OSIP turned
a profit in 2007 and had a forward P/E of 17.10, which is
pretty good for a company with such growth.
Total
worldwide net sales of Tarceva(R) (erlotinib) for 2007, as
reported by the Company's collaborators for Tarceva, Genentech,
Inc. and Roche, were approximately $886 million representing
a 36% growth in global sales compared to the same period last
year. For the three months ended December 31, 2007 worldwide
Tarceva net sales were approximately $250 million representing
a 32% increase over the same period last year. The Company
reported total revenues from continuing operations of $341
million for 2007 compared to revenues of $241 million for
2006, an increase of 41%. The Company's net income, including
results from discontinued operations, was $66.3 million (or
$1.11 per share) for 2007, compared with a net loss of $582.2
million (or $10.10 loss per share) for 2006.
The risk
to this stock is that the majority of the revenues are currently
attached to one drug – Tarceva. In the event of a serious
problem with the drug, the company would likely be doomed.
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$3.02
on
12.14.07
|
$3.51
|
$10.30
$.35
|
-30% &
+16%
|
|
U.S. Gold
is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that
if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t,
you will lose your investment. Very risky. However, with rising
inflation and weakening consumer confidence, investors turn
to gold without really looking. That could mean that U.S.
Gold enjoys a push-up on the general love lust of gold, even
while the company keeps prospecting to determine if they are
actually sitting on a gold mine. Very risky play, with potentially
high rewards.
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in vol. 3,
iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network.
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it
a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen is
one of 71 new appointments announced by Her Excellency, the
Right Honorable Michaelle Jean, Governor General of Canada.
U.S. Gold was added to the Russell 3000 on July 3, 2007.
McEwen
Capital is holding their Annual Reception on March 4, 2008.
Check the calendar section at NataliePace.com for a link and
more information.
|
|
WisdomTree
NYC, USA
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$2.95
|
$2.95
|
$9.94
$2.85
|
--
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees,"
and vol. 5, iss. 2, "International
Money Grows on WisdomTrees."
This is a well-managed company that creates "smart"
ETFs, which update holdings regularly, and trade on earnings
instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a former
SEC chairman as one of the senior advisors (high risk investment,
but a lot more credible than most OTCBB companies). The company
has had to delay its plans to re-list on NASDAQ, due to current
"market conditions and a $5 minimum stock price requirement."
According to a press release issued on Nov. 12, 2007, the
Company does not expect to re-list until the second quarter
of 2008, at the earliest. Don’t underestimate this company.
CEO Jono Steinberg is married to Maria Bartiromo and both
have strong relationships on Wall Street, as do Chairman Michael
Steinhardt and Senior Investment Strategy Advisor Professor
Jeremy J. Siegel, the famous Wizard of Wharton. Also, just
signed deals with Mellon and Dreyfus to create ETFs, and filed
an intention to create more international currency ETFs and
the first India focused ETF.
The Company
has also expanded its sales and operations functions to rapidly
commercialize into the $3 trillion retirement market, by launching
the WisdomTree 401(k) platform -- the first open-architecture
platform to combine ETFs and no-load mutual funds.
|
|
Zoltec
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
ZOLT
|
$22.88
|
$22.88
|
$51.77
$18.34
|
--
|
|
Read the
article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12. Annual report was issued on 12.7.07. $151
million in annual sales in 2007, versus $92 million in 2006.
This is a huge growth market. They manufacture carbon fibers
which are used in a range of commercial products, including
wind turbines. This is A-plus interest. Waiting for the price
point to settle in.
|
Sony (NYSE:
SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell
(NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the
Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains.
Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands
was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains, Agilent on 2.1.07
with flat performance, and RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains
on 2.1.07. Blockbuster ran up 82.5% in gains, which we cashed in
on February 12, 2007. Intuit, deleted in June 2007, was a wash for
us – up and down. Macerich posted 150% gains between May 2003 (when
it was first featured) and September 2007 (when it was removed from
the list). Jet Blue was removed on December 5, 2007 with losses
of 24-45%. Still love the airline as a consumer, but oil prices
are killing the industry. Disney (+31%), National Health Investors
(flat), News Corp. (+33%), Opsware (+690%), Sirius (mixed) and Time
Warner (flat performance) were all deleted on December 26, 2007.
Gap Stores was deleted on 1.14.08 with negative performance (-14%).
Stocks
to Watch
Some of
these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot
List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling
Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
The majority
of the Hot News List (on 1.30.08).
Recent
Deletions:
AU Optronics
was removed on 3.1.08
General Motors
was deleted on 3.1.08
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
2.9.08
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Altair Nanotech-nology
RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$3.54
|
$2.98
|
$5.45
$2.80
|
-16%
|
|
Read the Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, iss. 6. Looking
to add back to the Hot News List at a better price point.
The CEO and President Alan Gotcher agreed to resign as chief
executive on 2.27.08. He was immediately replaced by interim
CEO Terry Copeland. We have asked the company to provide additional
information as to Dr. Gotcher’s abrupt departure and will
update you as soon as the information is received. Without
this news, a 16% pullback on this stock would have been enough
to inspire us to put Altair back on the Hot list. As it is,
more information over the CEO departure is needed before making
any determinations.
|
|
American Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$19.43
|
$22.59
|
$32.44
$10.05
|
+2%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, iss.
12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI),
Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature
Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more
energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables
electric utilities to replace multiple conventional copper
cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground
real estate available for other uses – including future power
upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar
annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in
the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells.
American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $180 million,
with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC
expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to
50% of sales in fiscal year 2007. Looking to add back to the
Hot News List at a better price point.
|
|
Apple Computer
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$125.48
|
$125.02
|
$202.96
$83.00
|
flat
|
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
Earnings report: January 22, 2008 wasn’t exciting enough to
make the markets rally, even though Apple had record results,
largely because the forecast for future earnings was weaker
than expected.
Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt is
on the Apple board of directors, as is Nobel Laureate winner,
Al Gore. Added Avon Chairman/CEO Andrea Jung to the board
on January 7, 2008. The craze over the iPhone, iPod and all
things Apple, and the clout that Jobs is gaining with his
alliances with Disney and Google should keep Apple at the
top of the technology performers over the next few years,
even while the rest of the stock market is really have a downward
drag. Apple is a company you’re going to want to own – and
everyone wished they’d had the prescience to buy in in the
$80s in 2007. In 2008, you may get your wish.
"We're thrilled to report our best
quarter ever, with the highest revenue and earnings in Apple's
history," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We have an incredibly
strong new product pipeline for 2008, starting with MacBook
Air, Mac Pro and iTunes Movie Rentals in the first two weeks."
With a weaker dollar and more hard
hits on the American wallet, more people may be tempted to
take the easy way out with regard to music and movies – illegal
downloads, which are still a huge problem in the industry.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$65.88
|
$108.79
$62.33
|
--
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2
for details on CIBC’s appeal. CIBC, like all of the financial
services industry, will continue to see hard times into 2008.
This is a price that might be attractive for your long-term
portfolio. Don’t expect wild gains in the short term with
this company, and there could be more losses before you’ll
see the upside. Again, the price is attractive if you’re looking
at a 7-year plus horizon, not if you’re looking to post great
gains in the next 12 months.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
C
|
$26.05
|
$23.71
|
$57.00
$22.36
|
-9%
|
|
Refer to the M&A
Mania article
in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup’s appeal. Citigroup,
like all of the financial services industry, will continue
to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that might be
attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect wild
gains in the short term with this company, and there could
be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again, the price
is attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus horizon,
not if you’re looking to post great gains in the next 12 months.
Citigroup announced on May 10,
2007, that Citigroup China would roll-out two new investment
products -- Structured Investment Accounts -- for the Chinese
consumer that would allow him/her to invest in equities or
currencies, with a principal protection feature. Just a few
years ago, all banks in China were state-owned enterprises.
Citigroup was the first mover in the Chinese consumer equity
marketplace. Purchased AkBank (in Turkey) on 1.09.07. Akbank
currently has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a premier,
full-service retail, commercial, corporate and private bank
in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6 billion
and a deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the world’s third
largest bank by assets and the nation’s largest financial
institution. Citigroup acquired servicing rights for $45 billion
worth of loans formerly held in ACC’s Ameriquest company.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Citigroup announced
on November 3, 2007, that Charles Prince, Chairman and CEO,
will leave the company. Robert Rubin has been named Chairman
of the Board. Sir Win Bischoff has been named acting Chief
Executive Officer.
|
|
Eastern Europe -- U.S. Global Investors
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$41.49
|
$44.12
|
$59.54
$23.02
|
+6%
|
|
Vanguard seems to be in the right
countries, and within those countries, in the right growing
sectors. See vol.
2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference. We’re keeping this on the list
because as investors rebalance and get spooked by the US markets,
their brokers may put them into international funds, like
EUROX. Will monitor closely over the next few weeks.
|
|
eBay
RISK: LOW
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$28.07
|
$26.36
|
$40.73
$25.64
|
-6%
|
|
Announced earnings on 1.23.2008.
See the articles, "eBay’s
Skype Outpaces News Corp’s MySpace," in volume
3, issue 9, "Executives
of the Year"
in January 2007, which featured CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss.
1). Lots of management changes. Skype has a new CEO effective
February 25, 2008. John Silverman (not related to the YouTube
star, Sarah), the former CEO of Shopping.com, will head up
Skype as CEO. Skype has more than 276 million registered users
around the world. In Q4 2007, it posted total revenues of
$115 million, an increase of 76 percent over the prior year,
while delivering a fourth consecutive quarter of segment profitability.
Meg Whitman is retiring on March 31, 2008, and will be replaced
by John Donahoe. John was previously President of eBay marketplaces,
where he oversaw strategic acquisitions of Shopping.com and
StubHub. Revenues and profits doubled while he was president
of his division. While eBay is not keeping this a secret,
the news is certainly not making headlines – yet. Let’s wait
and see what happens on March 31, 2008, when the woman who
grew eBay into the powerhouse it currently is steps down.
|
|
Energy Conversion Devices
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
ENER
|
$25.79
|
$26.57
|
$40.10
$20.47
|
+3%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12. According to MSN.com, ENER beat earnings
on 2.8.08, but warned that the earnings going forward would
be lower than expected. Revenues in the second quarter of
fiscal 2008 were $56.4 million, up 20 percent from first quarter
revenues of $47.0 million and up 146 percent from $22.9 million
in the second quarter of fiscal 2007. The solar business accounts
for 92% of sales. ECD reported a net loss for the quarter
of $5.4 million, or $0.14 per share, compared to a net loss
of $7.6 million, or $0.19 per share, in the first quarter
of fiscal 2008, and a net loss of $2.9 million, or $0.07 per
share, in the year-ago period. $2.5 million of the loss was
for restructuring, downsizing and management transition.
|
|
Genentech
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
DNA
|
$69.79
|
$75.75
|
$89.41
$65.35
|
+8%
|
|
Reported 4Q earnings on Monday,
1.14.08. Great biotech company with a huge pipeline of DNA-based
medical treatments. Could ultimately put chemo out of business.
U.S. product sales of $8,540 million, a 19 percent increase
over U.S. product sales of $7,169 million in 2006. GAAP operating
revenues of $11,724 million. GAAP net income increase of 31
percent to $2,769 million from $2,113 million reported in
2006. "We are pleased with our strong financial performance
in 2007, which was our tenth consecutive year of double-digit
revenue growth," said Arthur D. Levinson, Ph.D., Genentech's
chairman and chief executive officer. In 2008, we will continue
to invest in the 20 new molecular entities in clinical development
and look forward to new data from a number of potentially
important line extensions, including Rituxan for multiple
sclerosis and lupus and Avastin in combination with Tarceva
for advanced non-small cell lung cancer."
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$9.37
|
$9.60
|
$14.55
$2.52
|
Flat
|
|
Announced earnings Jan. 22,
2008.
Read "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 10. Contracted to build
a polysilicon facility in Idaho and supply Suntech, Sanyo
and Solar-Fabrik. Hoku Materials is builing a polysilicon
production facility capable of producing up to 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. Hoku Materials
estimates the total cost to construct and equip the polysilicon
facility with an annual capacity of 2,500 metric tons will
be approximately $300 million and that the first delivery
will occur in 2009. HOKU announced on 2.25.08 that the company
is bringing in $25 million through the private placement and
issuance of 2,893,520 shares of common stock (appx. $8.64
share). $20 million of the placement is coming through a subsidiary
of Suntech.
"This equity financing is a significant
step forward to obtain our larger debt financing for the construction
and procurement of our planned polysilicon plant in Pocatello,
Idaho, as we believe that the proceeds from this offering,
plus our other cash commitments to the construction and procurement
of the polysilicon plant, will satisfy the Merrill Lynch requirement
that we contribute up to $35 million in equity towards the
project prior to completing our debt financing," said Dustin
Shindo, chairman and CEO of Hoku Scientific. "We are especially
pleased that one of our key polysilicon customers, Suntech,
has made this investment in our company, as it is a sign of
their confidence in our business."
In June 2007, Suntech entered into
a supply agreement with Hoku Materials, Inc., a wholly owned
subsidiary of Hoku Scientific, to purchase up to $678 million
of polysilicon from Hoku Materials over a ten year period,
with the first shipment scheduled for delivery in 2009.
|
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$20.27
|
$19.97
|
$27.99
$16.84
|
flat
|
|
Announced 4Q earnings on 1.15.08.
See "Apple
Chips," article
in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices
in products and price.
Intel is a great blue chip. However,
the chip business is highly competitive and the business spending
is expected to moderate during the next year. Additionally,
traditionally the 1st quarter is a lower performing
quarter than the 4th. Wait and see what happens
to the share price!
Green: Intel and Google launched
ClimateSaversComputing.org
in 2007, with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption
reduction by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partner
to come on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices
and Microsoft!
|
|
International Rectifier
|
No
|
IRF
|
$26.65
|
$22.54
|
$44.36
$25.00
|
-15%
|
|
International Rectifier Corporation
is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of power management
product devices, which use power semiconductors. The Company's
products are used in a variety of end applications, including
computers, communications networking, consumer electronics,
energy-efficient appliances, lighting, satellites, launch
vehicles, aircraft and automotive diesel injection. The good
news is that the audit committee is doing it’s job. The bad
news is that means there will be some adjustments to prior
earnings reports and a late filing for the current report.
According to a Notification to File Late document which was
filed with the SEC on February 11, 2008, "the Audit Committee
of the Company’s Board of Directors has determined that the
Company’s financial statements for its fiscal quarters ended
September 30, 2003 through December 31, 2006 and for its fiscal
years ended June 30, 2004 through June 30, 2006 should not
be relied upon." Uh oh. Looks like the problems are mostly
centered in a Japan subsidiary.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
WFR
|
$76.28
|
$76.28
|
$96.08
$48.88
|
--
|
|
4Q earnings conference call
on 1.24.08 at 5:30 p.m. ET. MEMC was added to the S&P
500 in August of 2007. Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and
MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers
accordingly. Volatile marketplace. Great company. Looking
to reposition on the Hot News list at a more attractive price…
|
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$26.38
|
$21.82
|
$41.33
$25.00
|
-17%
|
|
Netgear announced earnings on
February 13, 2008. Net income came in below 2006, $12.5 million
in 2007 versus $13.4 million in 2006.
Watch Natalie
Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick
Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO,
won the Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award
(on 6.16.06), NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list
(for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s
Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS
just gave NetGear’s Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The
NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online. It’s a great
product that allows you to connect to Skype and call anyone
worldwide anywhere there is a WiFi signal.
Netgear’s products are amazing.
The Skype Wi-Fi phone may just be ramping up for sales. (I
love mine.) However, the 4th quarter results were
less than stellar in terms of growth, inventory turnover and
operating margins. CEO/Chairman Patrick Lo said that had a
lot to do with air freight charges. Waiting to see what the
next earnings report reveals in terms of trends.
|
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.45
|
$1.93
|
$2.50
$.98
|
+33%
|
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. Reported 3Q 2007 results on November
15, 2007. Who are SatCon’s customers? On June 27, 2007, SatCon
announced that its PowerGate(R) commercial grade inverters
had been installed as an integral part of Google's corporate
headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system
is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the United
States. Should be announcing 4th quarter and
full-year earnings soon. Company has not issued press release
giving the date yet. Last year’s was filed on April 2, 2007.
NataliePace.com has A-plus interest in putting this company
back on the Hot News List. Looking for the markets to settle
in first (and initiate the news coverage at a lower price).
Elie has joined SatCon as Vice
President of Business Development for its SatCon Power Systems
division on February 19, 2008. Mr. Nasr has relationships
from his past jobs at Siemens and General Electric, to name
two. Appears to be a great hire. Electrical engineering degree,
with a MBA in finance.
|
|
Smith & Nephew
London, England
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SNN
|
$64.35
|
$65.40
|
$68.48
$54.08
|
+1%
|
|
Read the article in vol.
4, issue 7. The company is based out of London, England,
and with a market cap of $10.57 billion is a good diversification
strategy for your portfolio. Additionally, SNN has a piece
of an exploding marketplace in the hip resurfacing business,
with the premiere product, called the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing
System. Annual sales were up to $3.4 billion, as of the annual
report released on 2.7.08.
Withdrew 185 of its BIRMINGHAM
HIP* Resurfacing System implants following a packaging error
at a subcontractor on Aug. 16, 2007. Smith & Nephew's
investigation confirms that this problem is confined to a
small number of batches. A number of implants have already
been recovered in their packaging. The devices were distributed
to a number of countries, including the UK and the US. Proactive
notification is a good sign of the moral code of the executive
suite, but bad products can be Lawsuit City if they were implanted.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$45.08
|
$64.84
$20.23
|
-3%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and
vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I
did on the Forbes.com
Video Network. Sohu
was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service
(ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Don’t get sucked
into buying at high P/Es in a declining world marketplace.
Full-year revenue was reported on 2.4.08. GAAP net income
= $34.9 million, up 35% over last year. Total revenues were
$188.9 million, up 41% over last year.
|
|
SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green
& Chinese Co. ADR)
RISK: LOW
2007 Company of the Year
Mainland China
|
No
|
STP
|
$46.41
|
$37.17
|
$90.00
$31.41
|
-20%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 1 for our Company
of the Year article,
which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12 for
our articles on solar energy. On February 21, 2007, Suntech’s
CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable on Climate Change
which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University
in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable brings together
more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders from all regions
of the world. Dr. Shi was named one of TIME magazine's 2007
"Heroes of the Environment," on October 22, 2007, and the
share price has been a rocket ship ever since. Suntech will
supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to
Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection
Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world’s largest
solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider
of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy
a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. Dr. Shi is one of our
Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. In June 2007, Suntech signed a 10 year supply deal for
polysilicon from Hawaii's Hoku Scientific. Institutional holdings
of STP increased significantly on November 22, 2007. Announced
earnings on 2.20.08.
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, chairman and
CEO of Suntech: "Through the long term supply of silicon at
prices well below today's spot-market rates, Hoku will play
a key role in our plan to produce grid parity solar products.
Hoku's polysilicon supply will also enable Suntech to continuously
expand its production capacity and deliver the means to generate
clean, renewable energy to a growing proportion of the world's
population."
|
|
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$32.88
|
$35.53
|
$40.00
$12.00
|
+8%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and
vol.
2, issue 8 for
articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global
with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU
that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France.
International investing in the right sectors and countries
pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its
category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating
on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund
back in August of 2005!)
|
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$35.61
|
$31.77
|
$73.06
$29.00
|
-11%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
"Green
Hits the Mainstream,"
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for other articles
on solar energy. This is a profitable solar energy company,
based out of China. The international management team is very
strong, as are sales, growth and profitability. Waiting
for the announcement of full-year earnings.
|
|
UQM Technologies
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
UQM
|
$2.33
|
$2.18
|
$5.48
$2.19
|
-6.4%
|
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. UQM Technologies, Inc. is a developer
and manufacturer of power dense, high efficiency electric
motors, generators and power electronic controllers for the
automotive, aerospace, medical, military and industrial markets.
A major emphasis of the Company is developing products for
the alternative energy technologies sector including propulsion
systems for electric, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric
and fuel cell electric vehicles, under-the-hood power accessories
and other vehicle auxiliaries and distributed power generation
applications. On November 5, 2007, received a $1,046,500 cost-share
contract from the California Energy Commission's Public Interest
Energy Research Program and the U.S. Department of Energy's
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop an
advanced grid-connect inverter under its Advanced Power Electronics
Interface (APEI) Initiative. UQM’s share was $439,000 (42%).
Announced 3Q earnings on 1.30.08:
Continuing operations for the third quarter resulted in a
loss of $1,322,849 or $0.05 per common share on total revenue
of $1,714,858 versus a loss from continuing operations of
$818,297 or $0.03 per common share on total revenue of $1,726,526
for the third quarter last year.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Hi-Yield
ETF
|
No
|
DEM
|
$53.08
|
$53.08
|
$57.73
$40.91
|
--
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, iss. 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets ETF
|
No
|
DGS
|
$44.66
|
$44.66
|
$52.71
$39.89
|
--
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, iss. 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree International ETF
|
No
|
DRF
|
$23.25
|
$23.25
|
$31.49
$22.00
|
--
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, iss. 2. Most holdings are in international finance,
including HSBC, Banco Santander, Australia, Argentina, Scotland
and Lloyds of London.
|
|
World Water & Power
VERY HIGH RISK
Trading off the boards
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$1.47
|
$1.55
|
$2.52
$.39
|
+5%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
Green
Hits the Mainstream,
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on
solar energy. This is a very high-risk company in the solar-energy/water
purification sector. CEO Quentin Kelly was invited by Governor
Schwarzenegger to join him on the Governor’s tour of Canada,
during the California-Canada Conference on Clean Technologies
in Vancouver in 2007. Announced on August 9, 2007 that they
would be delivering 10 Mobile MaxPure units for use in Darfur,
Sudan. According to Quentin T. Kelly, Chairman and CEO, "We
have a $200 million pipeline of potential contracts plus additional
large, pending projects. We believe WorldWater has the unique,
proprietary technology and resources to offer the most cost-efficient
solutions to a world demanding clean, renewable energy." However,
the delivery to date on these backorders for the first two
quarters of the year equal just $7.6 million. Market cap of
$275 million seems too pricey for our taste on these financial
results. Loved the stock at 89 cents when we first featured
it back in April of 2007.
|
|
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
(Green ETF)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
PBW
|
$21.47
|
$20.72
|
$29.00
$14.97
|
-3.4%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12
for articles on solar energy. This is a well-managed "smart"
ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, but falls and rises
on the good or bad news of alternative energy companies which
it may not even hold in the portfolio.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share
Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Boston
Properties (BXP)
Macerich
(MAC)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 2.29.08
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Boston
Properties
|
No
|
BXP
|
$86.91
|
$85.69
|
$133.02
$79.88
|
-1.4%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in the
REITs article. Boston Properties looked great prior to 2007.
With a pullback in profits and GDP growth, corporate spending
and hiring should abate. The office building REITs should
begin to come under pressure in 2008, just as they did in
the 2000-2002 recession. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital
spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs
of the business economy, which are the customers of Boston
Properties.
|
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$30.45
|
$27.65
|
$70.57
$26.38
|
-9%
|
|
Fannie Mae was deleted from the
Cooling Off list on 2.11.08, after posting losses of –50%
and -56%. So, why keep the company on this chart? Because
even though the federal government is working fast and furiously
on a bailout package, Fannie Mae could be one of the hardest
hit corporations in the U.S. by the subprime crisis. This
corporation is not highlighted because who knows which way
the share price rolls in the interim, and it is not an obvious
put. At the same time, it could pay to know what your mutual
funds are invested in because Fannie Mae has been a very popular
holding in many of the most popular mutual funds. In volatile
markets with lots of downward pressure, it pays to take profits
early and often and to trim back your exposure on the most
vulnerable industries (which is why we took our profits before
the bailout announcement). Yes, the subprime crisis is a national
problem. If the government bails out Fannie Mae, you’ll be
doing your share as a citizen to keep housing affordable to
the underserved in the U.S. You should make the choice if
it should be your problem as an investor as well, when placing
your money in the corporation. Fannie Mae plays an important
role in our society.
|
|
KB Home
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$23.93
|
$56.08
$15.76
|
-59%
|
|
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under
pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating
options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from vol.
2, issue 5. In
May 2005, we called REITs
a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high
home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of
contracts and rising inventory.
|
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$60.02
|
$64.00
|
$103.59
$59.75
|
+6.6%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, issue 9 in the
REITs article. We first featured Macerich in May of 2003,
when it was trading at $33/share. In September, when Macerich
was trading at $81.22, the signs were pointing toward a cooling
off in retail shopping center REITs, so we removed the company
from our Hot News list (meaning that we’re capping the performance
at 150% gains). Since then, the share price has fallen 22%.
With a pullback in profits and GDP growth, consumer spending
should abate and the pressures on inflation could mount. The
mall REITs should begin to come under pressure in 2008, just
as they did in the 2000-2002 recession. Will be monitoring
cash flow, capital spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth,
unemployment, price of oil and other signs of the consumer
economy, who are ultimately the customers of Macerich. They
missed earnings estimates in Nov. 2007, and announced earnings
on 2.12.08. For the year ended December 31, 2007, net income
available to common stockholders was $71.7 million or $1.00
per common share-diluted compared to $228.0 million or $3.19
per share-diluted for 2006. Net income available to common
stockholders for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 was $38.4
million or $.53 per share-diluted compared to $147.9 million
or $1.98 per share-diluted for the quarter ended December
31, 2006.
|
|
Novastar Financial
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
NFI
|
$28.04 &
$36.53 (6.15.07)
|
$1.94
|
$526.08
$1.12
|
-93% &
-95%
|
|
See the article (Sub)
Prime Time in
the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 5, when we warned everyone
should get out of subprime mortgage lenders. On July 27, 2007,
Novastar announced a reverse stock split. As a result of the
reverse stock split, every four shares of common stock were
changed into one share of common stock. Scott Hartman, the
company's chairman and chief executive officer, Chief Financial
Officer Gregory Metz and General Counsel Jeff Ayers are leaving
the company, effective Jan. 3, 2008. Lance Anderson, the current
chief operating officer and president, was elected by the
board to replace Hartman. In danger of being delisted by the
NYSE due to the share price falling beneath $5.00/share. Has
laid off 100s of employees, sold off most of its subprime
loans and closed doors on most of its offices. What’s left
to do? The paperwork? Don’t be fooled. Lance Anderson may
be the only guy on the planet who would take this job. The
former CEO and Chairman is reportedly getting $2.1 million
in cash for leaving, according to BizJournal.
|
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$21.21
|
$35.64
$18.85
|
-58%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from vol.
2, issue 5 in
2005, when we first reported on REITs
as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities action
complaint (but not a confirmed investigation), from June 2007,
alleging that Toll Brothers "and one or more members
of its senior management, violated federal securities laws
by issuing various materially false and misleading statements
that had the effect of artificially inflating the market price
of the Company's securities and causing Class members to overpay
for the securities." According to the annual earnings
report filed in Dec. 2007, net income had dropped to just
$36 million, from $687 million in 2006. Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer Robert Toll said, "By many measures, fiscal
2007 was the most challenging of the 40 years that Toll Brothers
has been in business. 1974 was perhaps rougher, but the difficult
times only lasted one year."
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$31.97
|
$29.23
|
$37.99
$25.79
|
-8.6%
|
|
See "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression", in vol. 4, iss. 12.
4Q & full-year earnings report was issued on 1.16.08:
$39.4 billion in revenue and net income of $8.06 billion.
|
Recently
Deleted:
Fannie
Mae on 2.11.08
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
$68.75
(5.25.07)
|
$30.45
|
$70.57
$26.38
|
-50% &
-56%
|
|
Spent $1 billion on accounting
fees related to the accounting scandal. Investors are still
in to the tune of $58.44 billion…. Are you? Better check your
mutual funds. The recent subprime lending fallout doesn’t
bode well for FNM. According to the AP, "Maintaining
strong asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie
Mae, given the recent weakening of housing values from the
very strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard
and Poor’s has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae. December
14 annual meeting for shareholders will be held at 10:00 a.m.,
EST, at the Hilton Washington in Washington DC. Fannie Mae
is chartered, but not funded or guaranteed, by the U.S. government.
It’s funded completely with private capital, and is one of
the top holdings in some of the most popular mutual funds,
i.e. you might own it. 3rd quarter net income loss
was $1.5 billion. FNM expects that the housing crunch and
credit tightening will continue to adversely impact their
financial results in 2007 and 2008, according to the 3rd
quarter earnings report.
|
The following
companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06:
Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). LifeCell was removed
on 7.2.07 with -4.5% overall performance. (The cooling off list
anticipates that a company will lose share price value.) Google
was added on 7.16.07 and then removed on 8.1.07 with losses of -6.7%.
General Motors was removed on 10.01.07 with mixed performance. Fannie
Mae was removed on 2.11.08 with -50% and -56% performance.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect
a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance
of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk
tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of
your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should
never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Don’t
Miss Chats with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat and Kelley Wright,
the #1 Blue Chip Stock Picker, on how to beautify your fiscal and
physical fab self! Also, Premium Subscribers enjoy a private Q&A/teleconference
with Natalie Pace.
The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! Visit
our calendar section often.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
U.S.
Gold Investors: 3rd Annual McEwen Capital Reception, Toronto, ONT
Tuesday,
March 4th, 2008
4:30PM
through 8:00PM
U.S. Gold
investors are invited to join U.S. Gold Chairman and CEO Rob McEwen
at a reception in downtown Toronto, celebrating our collective good
fortune (whatever that means). You could win a Porsche for the weekend.
Report back to NataliePace.com if you do attend!
Chat
with Life and Fitness Coach Gary Kobat
Wednesday, March 5th, 2008
8:45AM through 9:30AM PT.
21 days
to a healthier, wealthier, more beautiful you. It's all about energy,
tapping into, nourishing and maximizing what you already have to
make extraordinarily easy life changes to embody your highest potential.
THIS 21-DAY COACHING CALL SERIES WITH NATALIE PACE AND GARY KOBAT
BEGINS ON MARCH 7TH, 2008. SIGN UP NOW AT THE JOIN NOW
LINK AT NATALIEPACE.COM. Don’t wait to become the best YOU ever,
and watch how everything in your life – your health, your wealth
and your relationships – become more beautiful as a result.
Women's
Festivals. Santa Barbara, CA
Friday,
March 7th, 2008
3-day
women's gala, festival, seminars, presentations, networking opportunities
centered on personal, professional, political, philantrophic and
planet.
 |
| Cristina
Gallardo-Domâs is Desdemona in Los Angeles Opera’s commanding
performance of Otello. |
|
Verdi's
Otello at the LA Opera
Sunday,
March 9th, 2008
7:00PM
through 11:00PM
Ian
Storey and Cristina Gallardo-Domâs delight as doomed
soul mates in Verdi's most electrifying tragic opera. Storey
is THE new heart throb tenor, sure to send chills through
your love nodes and Domas is tragic and moving as Desdemona.
Opera at its best!
$20 for
Students with valid ID and Seniors over the age of 65! Students
and Seniors can attend for as little as $20 per ticket! Whenever
a performance looks like it's not going to sell out, the Company
releases a limited number of seats throughout the house for
sale at a flat $20 per ticket 90 minutes before curtain. The
number of tickets released varies based on availability for
that Performance.
The decision
whether to sell Rush Tickets or not is made the morning of
the performance or, in the case of weekend performances, on
the Friday prior. Students and Seniors interested in Rush
Tickets can call the Audience Services Department at (213)
972-8001 in advance to find out whether or not Rush Tickets
will be on sale.
Be sure
to tell them that NataliePace.com sent you! !
|
Working
Mother Webinar: Online
Monday,
March 10th, 2008
9:00AM
through 11:00AM
Learn
about challenges U.S. Nationals face as they strive to recruit,
retain and promote women in this webinar sponsored by IBM and Shell.
Eco-Nomics:
Wall Street Journal Conference, Santa Barbara, CA
Wednesday,
March 12th, 2008
A conference
from the editors of The Wall Street Journal, ECO:nomics takes a
CEO-level view of the rapidly developing relationship between the
environment and the bottom line. By invitation only! Bacara Resort.
A conference from the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
Women's
Festivals. Sedona, AZ
Friday,
March 14th, 2008
3-day
women's gala, festival, seminars, presentations, networking opportunities
centered on personal, professional, political, philantrophic and
planet.
Federal
Open Market Committee Meeting
Tuesday,
March 18th, 2008
8:00AM
through 5:00PM
The Federal
Reserve Board governors meet to determine whether inflation is more
of a factor than the housing pullback and subprime defaults. Will
the Feds keep the rate where it is, raise it or lower it?
Chat
online with number 1 Blue Chip money manager, Kelley Wright
Wednesday,
March 19th, 2008
8:45AM
through 9:30AM PT.
Kelley
Wright is the Managing Editor of Investment Quality Trends, the
number 1 risk-adjusted newsletter, and CIO of IQ Trends Private
Client Asset Management for trusts, foundations and high-net-worth
individuals. He answers your questions one-on-one!
Fridays
Off the 405, The Getty Center, LA, CA
Friday,
March 21st, 2008
6:00PM
through 9:00PM PT
A once-a-month,
after-work event mixing art and entertainment where you can socialize,
tour the galleries, and revel in the end of the workweek in a casual,
spontaneous atmosphere. All Fridays Off the 405 feature live music
and a cash bar.
Arianna
Huffington, Paul Begala and Tucker Carlson, LA, CA
Monday,
March 24th, 2008
7:30PM
through 9:30PM
2008 Public
Lecture Series, brought to you by American Jewish University and
Whizin Center for Continuing Education. Call 310.440.1246.
Premium
Subscriber Teleconference with Natalie Pace
Wednesday,
March 26th, 2008
5:00PM
through 6:00PM PT
Want to
get in on stocks like Suntech, Sohu, Opsware, Google and World Water
and Power BEFORE they make 300 to 600 percent gains? Have questions
about where the stock market is headed? Get the news, information
and education you need to succeed!
GDP
4Q 2007 report (final)
Thursday,
March 27th, 2008
8:30AM
through 8:45AM ET.
The U.S.
Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) releases
its final report on GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2007. Advance
estimates had GDP growth at .6%.
Film
Financing Seminar, LA, CA
Sunday,
March 30th, 2008
Who gets
funding for films and why? Learn tips from industry experts on how
to get your film funded. Cost is just $250 if you register before
March 5 and mention NataliePace.com.
Mexican
Riviera Cruise for Moms
Saturday,
April 5th, 2008
Pursue
your passion without sacrifice on this Mexican Riviera Cruise with
MomsTown Moms Mary Goulet and Heather Reider from April 5-12, 2008.
Being a mother is amazing, but it isn't always easy. Let go and
rejuvenate!
Revelation
2008: Quantum Quickening, LA, CA
Thursday,
April 17th, 2008
Agape's
15th Annual Transformational Conference, featuring Rev. Michael
Bernard Beckwith, star of The Secret, Dr. Rickie, the Agape
International Choir and more to transform your life.
The
Milken Global Conference, Beverly Hills
Monday,
April 28th, 2008
This 3-day
conference, from April 28-30, brings together some of the most extraordinary
people in the world – business executives, institutional investors,
asset managers, government leaders, academics and Nobel laureates.
Network, share & learn.
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
|
|
|