TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.5 Issue 5 May 1st, 2008
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
“In 1979,
the U.S. officially recognized China. This enabled China to develop.
In less than 30 years, 400 million people were lifted out of poverty.”
Cecilia Chan,
Managing Director, Octonovem and
Vice Chairman,
Immtech Pharmaceuticals.
|
- Be
Audacious in Your Dreams. By Natalie
Pace. Report from the 2008 Milken Global Conference.
- The 65 Million Dollar Idea.
Meet t-shirt entrepreneur Johan E. Esbensen, President,
Rogue Status, AWOL, Easy Company.
- Beauty is Only Skin Deep in
a Stalled Economy. By Natalie
Pace. Includes a Beauty Stock Report Card.
- Grade Your Guru. Grade Your Broker. By Natalie Pace.
- Are We At the Bottom of the Real Estate Crunch? By Shawn D. Harris, Mortgage Planning
Specialist.
- Ask Natalie: Should I Use My Tax Refund to Pay
Down Debt?
- Great Mother's Day Gift Ideas.
By Natalie Pace.
- Wise Talk, Wild Women.
By Gwen Mazer.
- Gratitude. By
Marilyn Tam, Co-founder, Us Foundation.
- Health is Wealth: How Lifestyle Affects Gastrointestinal
Health. By
Joanna Ransier, Registered Nurse, HealthWalk.com™ Health
Guide.
- Summertime: Will the Living Be Easier on Wall
Street?
By Natalie Pace. Features my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
- NataliePace.com Calendar:
Don’t miss Pangea Day on May 10th, a global event harnessing
the power of film to inspire and compel social change.
The calendar features important ezine publication dates,
chats, conferences and other opportunities to invest in
knowledge and peace.
|
 |
|

Be Audacious
in Your Dreams.
by
Natalie Pace.
Report
from the 2008 Milken Global Conference.
Imagine having access to Sam Zell and Elaine Wynn on real estate,
Muhammad Yunus and Quincy Jones about saving the world, NBA star
Dale Davis on investing in the inner city, Dr. Gary Becker (Nobel
Laureate) on the economy – and all that before you've
finished day one of a 3-day conference. That is the world
of the Milken
Global Conference, and if you've missed it again
this year, you might want to put a note on the calendar to register
early for the 2009 Conference, which is already scheduled for April
27-29, 2009.
You can also buy a DVD of the entire event, providing you with access
to over 470 speakers and over 130 sessions. Prices range from
$29.95 for a single session to $795 for the complete event. From
"A Conversation With T. Boone Pickens" to sessions on
Asia, China, Brazil, India, clean technology, alternative energy,
Iraq and real estate, if you are curious about what the cutting
edge policymakers, CEOs, money managers and academics think of the
situation, the Milken
Global Conference DVD set is sure to be Geek Paradise
for you.
With a sold-out crowd of nearly 3,000, representing more than 60
countries, it was hard to walk farther than a few feet without meeting
someone you were dying to speak to. In the lobby of the Beverly
Hilton Hotel, Dr. Richard Sandor, Time magazine's Hero
of the Environment and the Chairman and CEO of the Chicago Climate
Exchange, gushed about a Methane Emissions Offset Program he installed
in the poorest region of India. Cow manure collection tanks
are able to capture methane (one of the worst greenhouse gas pollutants)
and pipe the gas to the home for cooking and heating.
The best thing
about this program, according to Dr. Sandor, is not just that it
helps the environment by containing the methane emissions. It also
frees up seven-year-old girls and boys to go to school, instead
of spending all day foraging for fuel (what cow patties are in India).
For more on this and other carbon offsetting programs, go
to ChicagoClimatex.org
and click on Offsets.
Another inspiring and respected CEO, Dr. Peter Diamandis, Chairman
and CEO, X
PRIZE Foundation, encouraged conference participants
to "be audacious in your dreams," during the first night's
dinner panel. If anything will inspire audacity it's
a $30 million dollar prize. The Google Lunar X PRIZE is a $30 million
competition for the first privately funded team to send a robot
to the moon, travel 500 meters and transmit video, images and data
back to the Earth. 10 teams have already signed up for the
competition.
The Archon Genomics
X Prize is offering $10 million for the first team to successfully
sequence 100 human genomes in 10 days. Professor Stephen Hawking
is a supporter of this prize, in the hopes that it "can help
drive breakthroughs in diseases," like the ones he suffers
from.
Inspired by the $25,000 prize that focused Charles Lindbergh's
attentions on flying non-stop between New York and Paris in 1927,
Dr. Peter H. Diamandis created the X Prize because he strongly believes
that "focused and talented teams in pursuit of a prize and
acclaim can change the world." In 1927, the $25,000
purse inspired nine teams to invest $400,00 to compete with Lindbergh
in his monumental trans-Atlantic flight, an event that was one of
the most popular of the time. Between 1927 and 1929, U.S.
Airline passengers increased from 5,782 in 1926 to 173,405 in 1929
- a 30-fold increase! Dr. Diamandis hopes to inspire that
kind of positive change with his $10+ million dollar prizes in fields
such as Genomics, Automotive, Education, Medicine, Energy, Space
and Social arenas.
Optimism and capital solutions – using money to make the world
a better place -- are at the heart of the Milken Institute's
mission of improving "the lives and economic conditions of
diverse populations in the U.S. and around the world by helping
business and public policy leaders identify and implement innovative
ideas for creating broad-based prosperity." Mike Milken,
the chairman of the economic think tank, is widely respected within
the financial and academic communities as the father of high-yield
bonds, one of the most important economic innovations in the history
of humanity toward the democratization of capital. Mr. Milken's
bonds helped to create CNN, MTV, Las Vegas and more by empowering
entrepreneurs like Ted Turner, Steve Wynn and Bob Pittman with the
capital needed to "take on the big boys" and pursue
their dreams.
In fact, one Nobel Laureate I spoke to (off the record) believes
that Mr. Milken will indeed be honored for this financial innovation
by a major university in his lifetime. In the meantime, Mr.
Milken is kept quite busy in his role as chief inspiration officer
of the Institute, founder and chairman of the Prostate Cancer Foundation
and star of the show at the most important U.S. conference of the
year.
So, what grand ideas were floated this year at the largest gathering
of money, innovation and human capital? Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate
and professor at the University of Chicago, noted that the growing
inequality in income worldwide is largely a story of skill levels,
rather than discrimination. According to Dr. Becker, "The
average hourly earnings of college-educated persons grew from about
40 % higher than that of high school graduates in 1980 to about
80% higher in recent years… The real have-nots in society
are those with no education."
In terms of the current harsh climate in the U.S. economy, Dr. Becker
predicted, "It's going to get worse, but I don't
anticipate a major depression." Unfortunately, that
was about as rosy as the economic forecast got. For more of
Dr.
Gary Becker's thoughts on the economy and how
to navigate the troubled waters ahead, visit his blog at http://www.becker-posner-blog.com.
But the highlight of the entire three days definitely goes to one
of the most talented and applauded humanitarian/entertainers of
our time, Quincy Jones. Quincy has received 27 Grammys, an
Emmy and seven Academy Award nominations, but he's best known
as the man who threw dozens of recording artists in a studio and
produced the hit song, "We Are the World."
We are terminals
for a higher power," according to Quincy. Whether channeling
that frequency for songs, for movies or for world peace, Quincy
recommends that the choice is always rather simple. "It's
either fear or love," he says. If that quip makes you
wonder whether Quincy inspired Bono's lyrics, "when
love walks in the room," the answer is that two "raggedy
boys from Ireland and one brother from Chicago (in Quincy's
words) have indeed collaborated on music and world peace, including
the World Youth Foundation (an NGO of the UN), Live Aid and more.
So what happens when love, aka Quincy Jones, walks in the room of
the Beijing Olympic Planning Committee? What does he recommend
the Chinese do to amaze and delight the world this summer? "Have
the Dalai Lama carry the Olympic torch into the stadium,"
Quincy said.
When Quincy reported his recommendation at the Milken Conference,
the Beverly Hilton ballroom guests roared with delight and a standing
ovation. In a few short months, we'll know if our International
Peace Angel Quincy Jones has managed to inspire the Chinese, and
the world, yet another time. On the evening of April 28, 2008,
he definitely sparked the hearts of the 3,000 people in attendance.
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|
The
65 Million Dollar Idea.
Meet
t-shirt entrepreneur Johan E. Esbensen, President, Rogue Status,
AWOL, Easy Company.
Two
years ago, Johan Esbensen was a sneaker salesman at Undefeated in
Santa Monica, California, who had a little hobby making provocative,
in-your-face t-shirts that he gave away to his friends and customers.
Today he is the President of Rogue Status, a company that has the
hottest growing clothing line in the world.
Rogue
Status sales jumped to two million in under two years. Part
of the thanks for that explosive growth goes to pro street skater
Rob Dyrdek featuring Yo's shirts on his MTV show, Rob and Big.
However, having an MTV show doesn't explain why teens worldwide
are tattooing Rogue Status and AWOL (a brother company) slogans
on themselves.
I sat down with Yo on a sunny April 2008 morning at a local Venice
Café over coffee. He'd walked over from his house just
up the road. I'd driven the two blocks from my place and was
feeling a bit wasteful about that. I had recently gotten a
bike (a birthday gift from my teenage son), but still haven't bought
the lock needed to actually use it on a morning like that day. Ridiculously
lame excuse, really.
You
see, Yo's motto is that everything is easy. If gas is too
expensive, it's just easier to ride your bike. So stop whining
and do it. Rogue created a bike for you to buy, so there are
no excuses. You can have your fashion, your passion, your
exercise, extra dough in your wallet and green transportation, too.
Now an entire sub-culture of Westside teens own bikes in Venice,
and both Venice and Santa Monica, California are having to install
more bike racks to accommodate the trend. On Sundays, local
Yuppies cycle down to breakfast at the Farmer's Market, or hang
out to watch sports in an outdoor bar and grill. More and
more, they are riding Rogue bikes and wearing Rogue t-shirts (and
underwear as well – trust me. I wash my teen's clothes).
It's a life Yo has always dreamed of, but still has trouble believing
that it happened so fast and so easily. Yo
created
a world where he and his friends blur the lines between work and
play, called the enterprise Easy Company, and the world decided
to grant him his first wish. In his mind, there's no reason that
his morning can't include walking over to the grocery store to buy
dog food, in between global deal making and designing more slogans
that are bound to inspire and enrage – many times in equal
measure. His "million dollar idea" began with two guys shooting
the breeze on a couch, but looks to become more like a $65 million
dollar idea before all is said and done.
Q&A with Johan E. Esbensen, President, Rogue Status, AWOL,
Easy Company and Natalie Pace.
What's up with your signature slogan, "Curb your God?" Unlike some
of your more controversial slogans, like the gun show shirt, this
is one that parents (at least the liberals) and kids alike respond
pretty positively to.
Curb
your god. Too much of anything is too much. A little
of what you fancy does you good. Just not all of it.
What
was your inspiration for it?
We had dog tags and we called them God tags. They had "still
standing" on one side and a bullet hole on the other. So,
just walking down the street and seeing all of those Curb Your Dog
signs… I thought, "No. Curb your God."
Speaking
of God (in a slightly different way), let's talk about the
limited edition Dillon Henry shirt, the memorial tee you produced
for some local kids, Davis, Elliot and Gabe, when their best friend,
Dillon, was killed in a car accident.
I had a Dillon shout-out the other day. This kid wears the
Dillon shirt so much that I accidentally called him, "Dillon".
Good things come out of tragic events – like seeing
the boys grow through it and staying positive about it and remembering
somebody forever. I love that there is still more stuff happening,
like the memorial concert.
Natalie's note: On June 14th, RJD2 and GZA will headline
the Dill
‘n Eddie Show at The Orpheum Theatre in Los Angeles,
California, with proceeds benefiting the charities of Dillon Henry
and Eddie Lopez. Both teens had their futures cut short by
fatal accidents. Eddie was a victim of crossfire gang violence
and Dillon was killed in a car accident. For more information
on the memorial concert, go to Ticketmaster.com.
 |
| Artist:
Davis Lau |
These guys needed something and you stepped up and out of your
heart and wallet funded something that was so meaningful for them
– the first 100 t-shirts honoring Dillon.
That's how we spend our money. I didn't even think
about that. There wasn't even a question. That's
what we do. We make shirts, so we did a hundred initially
of the black ones. But we don't just wait until someone dies.
Right now, our friend Xavier needs a new wheelchair. He's
part of that Life Rolls On Foundation. We're going to
customize the chair. Rogue Status it out with artwork. He'll
have a fresh new chair for summer.
Phil Knight, the founder of Nike, says, "Never underestimate
the value of a free t-shirt." Are you saying, "Never
underestimate the value of a free wheelchair?"
These are just projects that are fun. We can do them now.
What's your role at the company?
I'm the President. Rex is the head of design. Jaspar
is the Vice President/brand manager. Brian in sales. Rex
stays on top of all the artwork and production. Jason helps
out with everything.
How long did it take to get here?
November 2005 is when Rex and I first sat down and designed 20 shirts.
It just kind of snowballed from there.
 |
| Rob and
Big. Rob is wearing the Rogue Status “Gun Shop” tee-shirt. |
What
are your top selling shirts?
The gun print is #1 to this day. #2 now is the brass knuckles
in the shape of California. Another big seller is "Too
much time; too much money." It's about the line-up
of kids who wait for shoes, when there is going to be another hot
one next month.
What is behind the gun print? What message do you want
people to take away from it?
By now, I don't care. There have been so many different
reactions. I was just watching the news and it was all just
Iraq and guns. I was looking to make a simple linear print.
I took the guns and lined them up. We coined it the
Million Dollar Idea when we made it, sitting there on the couch.
Was it?
Yup.
Was it a multi-million dollar idea?
I'm sure it will be, yeah.
Quicksilver is a publicly traded company worth a billion dollars.
Would you like to be that big or are you happy the way you
are?
We're really happy the way we have it. The two partners
I share the company with have the same vision for it. One
day, we'd like to grow it as big as Quicksilver without having
to sell out to anybody.
Remaining privately held and not accountable…
to shareholders. Yeah. But we'll see. I
don't know. I'm learning all the time. I
know we'll get to at least $60 million on our own.
I have a whole other gang of companies behind Rogue Status. We
can grow Rogue Status as big as we want. And then we have
DTA (Don't Trust Anyone) with a darker design element to it. So
we'll hold onto that and grow it as a little brother. And
then we have AWOL and Easy Company and Board of Authority.
 |
| Arlington
Cemetery hoodie |
|
 |
| “Gun
Show” hoodie |
|
Now,
what is AWOL? I thought it stood for Always West of Lincoln
-
just
a local Venice brand.
I gave out 200 of those shirts to locals when I was at Undefeated.
But you can't keep that localism vibe when people from the East
Coast are tattooing it on their bodies… That's outside
of the neighborhood and now a way of life. AWOL is following a different
path. Anti-establishment.
What is the AWOL ethos? You're a provocateur, but you're
also a laidback dude who rides his bike on Main Street for a bite
to eat.
I've lived all over the world, in Ottawa, Vancouver, New York, Tokyo,
Australia. I've traveled quite a bit. And then coming to find
Venice and Santa Monica, I thought, "This is where I want to stay
forever." I don't have to call anybody in the neighborhood.
I can get on my bike and bump into them. It's such a neighborhood
feel. You don't have to go downtown LA or Hollywood. You have everything
you need on the left hand side.
In fact, you've started quite a trend of young guys riding bikes
in the hood. My son bought his first tank of gas. He was so
disgusted with gas prices, that before he bought his second tank
of gas, he bought a Rogue Status bike. That's a cool idea that neighborhoods
are so local you can ride your bike. More people could do
that, really.
Yeah. They just don't.
So, Rogue Status is in five countries already. How long
have you been doing this? Two years maybe?
Yeah. The first year, I was just doing the hustle, still working
full-time at Undefeated and doing this as a passion. I've
just been feeling the rewards of watching it grow, and people accepting
it and understanding it. Every shirt kind of inspires dialog
whether it is good or bad. They don't know that the people
behind the brand are a little more lighthearted than the brands
look. That first year was a year of hustling.
What's the hustle like? What's the difference between you,
the guy who actually did it, and the guy who doesn't do it?
It's just a matter of getting up and doing it. A lot of people say
I want to do this or that but then they go back to sitting on their
couch or doing nothing on their day off. The hustle is me
getting Rex, driving to downtown LA, getting the shirts, driving
out to the print shop, developing that relationship there. Coming
back, going to work, picking up boxes, cruising around promoting
people. Every minute you're not selling a sneaker, trying
to put a t-shirt on somebody and pushing the brand.
What was the real key?
I followed my friend Chris Gibbs to Union in New York. I was always
dreaming about starting a brand then, but never had the time or
the money. Then I moved to LA. Undefeated wanted to
start a company on Main Street. They asked Chris to help them
open it, and they hired me also. If I didn't know Chris from
high school, I wouldn't have ever have gotten that opportunity.
Was the MTV show a big boost? Rob and Big.
Rob wears the Rogue Status gun shop tee-shirt almost everywhere
he goes.
After Chris, the key to success was definitely the relationship
with Rob. That was cool because I met him through Undefeated
through the manager, Alex. Once I had the gun print in four colors,
I thought, "Rob will like these." I had my friend get them to him.
A week later, Rob came into the store and he said, "Yo, the reaction
that I get from people when I get out of my Porsche is just insane.
What do you want to do with this?"
So, I hustled to get to Rob and he became a partner in the company.
It took a year to brand the sh** out of the company and then
I pulled the trigger on getting a store.
We had a mess of orders that we couldn't even begin to produce.
Then Travis Parker partnered in with a turnkey solution. We
got warehousing fulfillment, accounting, all the stuff we don't
want to deal with. We formed a distribution company called
Killers.
You guys are pretty dedicated worker bees for a bunch of laid
back sneaker salesmen from Venice.
That's the thing. We combine a really chill lifestyle with
a strong work ethic.
How long is your day?
12 hours a day. Answering emails all over the world. Sometimes
I go to Ontario [California] to visit the warehouse. We're just
a well-greased machine that doesn't stop. We can combine work
and pleasure. We blur it and live in the grey zone. It's
not black and white.
We call our company Easy Company. Even our store. We
have hangars that hang straight all the time. You never have
to adjust them. They just always look good. I have a
swivel chair. Everything is just always right there.
How did you go from NYC and not having enough dough for t-shirts
to coming here and getting your ideas on cotton and your shirts
on MTV?
You scrape the pennies. I gambled on 200 t-shirts initially.
I took them straight to Union. Union got them on Friday and sold
out in two days. I then re-ordered. I dumped all of
my shirts on Undefeated and Union. Real baby steps. I
went into the hole over $10,000, personal loans from people who
really covered my ass. Then I stayed on top of the invoicing,
making sure people paid me. Rob bought in. I spent that
money but maintained it long enough to get Travis to come in. All
that happened in like a year.
Cash positive in year one or year two?
I'd say year three. We were always spending more money to
make more money.
What about the growing pangs? You have more orders than you can
fulfill and Travis falls into the game. You have your first
t-shirt and an MTV star loves it. You make it sound like everything
just flowed so easily.
One guy bought in at one point who didn't share the same vision.
We had to buy him out.
It doesn't seem that bothered you much. Some people would
let that eat them alive.
I didn't let it bother me much. It was more just like it didn't
work out, so here's your money back. There was animosity and
he shit-talked about us for quite a long time after, but I was too
busy to be bothered. We were going forward.
Have you faced any moral challenges? People promising you
the moon…
I didn't want to sell the company out right away. There was an opportunity
to do that. We wanted to let the company grow more naturally.
The whole company motto is: "Do you." I have the perfect
team right now to keep the company going. I keep coming up with
new ways to push the limits of what you can put on a shirt. The
rest of the guys do the same. We're just having fun with it.
Like the new Arlington (Cemetery) shirt?
That's up there in the top two. It's like the opposite
of the gun print. People really understand the patriotism
in that one. It's all about respect. All those guns
symbolize the soldier, as much as the crosses.
The gun print by itself without Arlington is more in people's
face. Some people take it like you're promoting violence.
Were you intending to do that?
No. But I knew that it would push a lot of buttons and get
people talking. I don't even know why people get that offended
by it.
They do, though, don't they?
Yes. Kids get kicked out of high school for wearing it. People
get kicked out of the malls for wearing the Curb your God; Holy
F**k shirt.
Is this in the red states?
No, here in LA. I think it's the Holy F**k on the back. We
do that a lot. "Kill Them" on the front, "With Kindness" on
the back. We're having trouble finding product liability now
because of those. They are worrying that someone might get
shot for wearing the Hangover shirt, which says "Please Kill Me."
That's tough because your brand is built in controversy. If
you tame yourselves enough to get insurance, you lose the very thing
that your customers love about you.
We had a deal with DC Comics to do a Ghost Riders motorcycle
jacket, shoes, the whole bit. Rob was presenting our media kit to
the shareholders at Quiksilver (DC's parent company) for our product
partnership with DC. It went all the way to the top and then
the old guys objected, saying, "No way. We can't work with Rogue
Status." They objected to an old t-shirt I made called, "Make
Hate."
We shot ourselves in the foot on that one. People got on the Internet
over that shirt and the World Trade Center shirt and started dragging
me through the mud.
Old white, conservative dudes?
No, young neighborhood kids. With Make Hate, I was referencing
that when you make anything positive or different, whether you make
anything, even a painting, and you'll always get someone to hate
on it. That's what's behind Make Hate. People get pissed
off, but I will sell t-shirts for the rest of my life and make a
great living and have fun with my friends.
The statistics are that a college graduate makes 80% more than
a high school graduate. How far did you go?
I never got my diploma. I made it through grade 12, but there
are 13 grades in Ontario [Canada].
You seem to be very educated, particularly in history. Where
are you getting your information and knowledge?
Jason read every book and saw every film and talked about history
the whole time and sparked my interest in it. I've learned
by living through current events. I've got to credit the Internet,
the History Channel, the Discover Channel. I read The Bible
recently, and looked at it differently.
What is the biggest surprise? Your manna from heaven?
The fact that I can pay myself and all my friends right now to make
t-shirts. I pinch myself everyday. People love that
sh**? All of us are just getting warmed up. Every day
is a surprise.
What is your biggest challenge? It sounds like things came
fairly easy, but also you are not getting taken out with the stumbling
blocks.
I don't know what to say. Yesterday was fun. Tomorrow's
another one.
How fast are you growing?
We have nine people on the payroll including me. We have independent
sales reps all over the United States. We're pretty much peaked
on our staff. We'll probably need more people in a year and
will outgrow our office space. We're growing like crazy.
How about the store?
Our store kills it. We pay our rent in a day or two days.
It's been nothing but uphill. Growing growing every
month better than the last.
We had a family drive straight from El Paso. The dad was real
buzzed out on coffee. People come from all over. It's just a bonus
really.
Any avoid this; do that tips?
Try to be original. Find your own motivation. Do
you. Stay true to who you are. That's it.
What about those people who say, "I don't know who I am?"
It sucks to be you. I hate it when that happens. I've
never understood people like that. Psychology is another thing
I'm interested in.
Pushing past what you think you can do… Did you ever
do that? You don't seem to have any fear really. Making
t-shirts that push the edge so far and all.
I hate flying. I'd rather drive. If I can drive, I'll
drive. I never fly to Vegas. That landing. The
turbulence. The plane is really small.
Well, if I were a betting gal, I'd bet you're in your own 747
soon, just like Sergey Brin and Larry Page, since you can't ride
your bike to Singapore. Thanks Yo. See you on the street.
Johan E. Esbensen is the President, Rogue Status, AWOL, Easy
Company. Find out more about Rogue at RogueStatus.com.
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|
Beauty is Only Skin Deep in a Stalled Economy.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
a Beauty
Stock Report Card.
In a perfect world, we’re all immortal
and eternally young, but until we reach Nirvana, the scientists
have done their best to create a fountain of youth by injecting
poison into our forehead, inserting balloons into our breasts and
grafting cadaver flesh filler into our wrinkles. While these strategies
sound revolting, are painful and require constant maintenance, millions
of Baby Boomers have bought into the multi-billion dollar business
of eternal youth. Botox and breast implants were two of the fastest
growing marketplaces over the last eight years, with Botox®
procedures quadrupling from one million to 4.6 million between 2000
and 2007. Breast implants are up 64% over the same period, according
to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons.
Source:
American Society of Plastic Surgeons
While both Botox® and breast implants
are FDA approved, the debate on whether or not these procedures
cause serious health problems continues online. Websites like LoveYourLook.com
offer information, blogs, feedback and testimonials, all good of
course because the website is owned by the Mentor Corporation. Women
gush in the blog, claiming:
"I finally have the body that
I have always wanted."
"To anyone thinking of having
breast aug...GO FOR IT!"
However, actress Mary McDonough, Erin
on The Waltons, has a website called InTheKnow.org, whose most immediate
concern is that silicone breast implants are available once again,
after a 14-year ban over questions about their safety. The U.S.
FDA lifted restrictions on their sale in November 2006.
On another website -- OurBodiesOurBlog.org
-- Traci Levy, an assistant professor who teaches courses in feminism
and gender studies at Adelphi University, writes, "To say that you
need to have a very expensive surgical procedure with real health
risks in order to be considered beautiful, I think, is a problematic
image."
ImplantsOut.com owner Kacey Long shares
her health crisis, which she believes was caused by saline breast
implants, with other young women. Kacey warns, "Many women
with saline breast implants have experienced serious problems, including:
multiple operations because of pain or other issues, severe hardening
of the breast, loss of health insurance, and an increase in unexplained
illnesses. Saline breast implants can be dangerous to your health."
 |
| Barbie
Dolls, 2008, 60x80" |
 |
| Barbie
Dolls, detail |
|
Depicts
32,000 Barbies, equal to the number of elective breast augmentation
surgeries performed monthly in the US in 2006.
Chris Jordan photographic arts
http://www.chrisjordan.com/
|
Whether you love the new look or despise
the expressionless acting skills of the 40-plus Botox® loving
actors and actresses, pooh-pooh or worry about the health risks,
or ignore or applaud the new trend of small-breasted superstars
(like Kate Hudson and Keira Knightley), the cosmetic industry’s
fad breaker in 2008 is more likely to be Wall Street than Madison
Avenue. When homeowners can’t make their mortgage, one of the first
bills to go could be beauty enhancement. You’ll notice that Mentor
Corporation’s stock fell faster than the DOT COMs in 2000, losing
75% of its value between January and May 2000, at the start of that
recession.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
So, the question isn’t which beauty
stock will wrinkle – they may all be vulnerable – but which will
become most ugly of them all. And the company that might be most
vulnerable, in my view, is one that was; 1) late in the Botox®
arena; 2) was recently penalized by the Justice Department for allegedly
trying to market a drug beyond it’s approved arena (the settlement
was a $10 million fine and a five-year adherence to Corporate Integrity,
without an admission of guilt); 3) had a drug application rejected
by the FDA in January; 4) was forced to add bureaucracy and an oversight
executive to the payroll (in an economic slowdown!); and, 5) is
being less than truthful in its press releases.
In March 2006, Ipsen granted Medicis
the rights to develop, distribute and commercialize Ipsen's botulinum
toxin product (a Botox® competitor) in the United States, Canada
and Japan. However, the first application submitted to the FDA for
approval of the drug was rejected in January 2008, costing the company
valuable time. A new application was recently resubmitted addressing
the FDA’s questions, however, it typically takes 10 months to receive
a response and another year lost means the company could be launching
in the doldrums of demand for the drug. Medicis will owe Ipsen $25
million, once the application is accepted by the FDA, without the
ability to bring in revenue on the product until the FDA approval.
Additionally, the joint Ipsen/Medicis
press release states that current growth estimates for Botox®,
which was the most popular non-surgical treatment in 2006, are estimated
to be "in excess of 20 percent." Allergan’s CEO, whose
company owns the rights to Botox, is more conservative about how
a stalled economy could affect his business. Allergan chief executive
David Pyott said that Botox® should suffer less than more costly
cosmetic procedures like breast implants. "People might try and
extend treatments a little bit," he said. "That's more likely what
I think would happen than people just saying, 'I can't afford this.
I'm just going to be ugly again.' "
Medicis recently paid $10 million to
the Justice Dept. to settle claims of off-label marketing of one
of their drugs (without admitting any guilt in the matter). The
company also hired a Chief Compliance Officer and created an enterprise-wide
compliance function to administer MRX’s obligations under a five-year
Corporate Integrity Agreement. Between the Ipsen raoylty payment,
the Justice Department penalty, the delays in the FDA approval process
and the new Compliance Officer, that’s a lot of extra expense in
a corporation that made only $75 million profit last year, especially
as the American economy continues to limp along.
Companies like Allergan, Medicis and
Mentor Corporation could see Botox® and breast implant
procedures dry up because cosmetic surgery is not covered by insurance
and when you can’t pay the house payment and other basic needs,
it’s harder to justify the perks. However, families did manage to
pony up the dough for certain beauty procedures in 2000, 2001 and
2002. Allergan’s Botox sales increased 84% from 2000 to the end
of 2002, whereas Mentor’s aesthetic and general surgery sales (largely
breast implants) increased only 22% over the same period. This trend
supports Mr. Pyott’s forecast in today’s economy. I wouldn’t expect
Allergan’s sales to explode, but historical trends say the company
may withstand the pressure more easily than Medicis or Mentor do.
Additionally, Allergan’s eye care business is still larger than
it’s Botox® business, at $1.8 billion in sales in 2007, over
$1.2 billion in Botox over the same period. (Allergan also has breast
implants and obesity products from its acquisition of Inamed.)
This journey into beauty also took
me into the path of a company that has products poised for strong
growth, even in this weak economy, mostly because they are expanding
into big markets that are covered by insurance. LifeCell, now a
division of Kinetic Concepts Inc. (KCI) has Alloderm, which is used
for burn victims (in addition to lip augmentation and wrinkle fillers).
Kinetic also has a vacuum assisted closure product that reduces
healing time and risk of infection of wounds. Imagine a new procedure
for treating wounds! V.A.C® is proven to help save the limbs
of diabetics with infections.
A search online for V.A.C. reveals
entry upon entry of doctors and nurses touting the desirability
of the product. In fact, Betty the nurse, a blogger, recently pointed
out that there is talk about using vacuum assisted closure on primary
closures of all wounds--before they become infected. According to
Betty, "Often times these VACs are only used on wounds that
have failed to close primarily. An example would be a surgical incision
that has become infected and needs to be re-opened." Should
the marketplace for VACs open up to the treatment of all wounds
(because it has less risk for infection and a faster healing time)
the marketplace for VACs could explode overnight – even in a recession.
The play on Kinetic is enhanced by
the exploding business of LifeCell as well. Lifecell’s sales have
increased 77% in the last two years. I’ve added LifeCell’s new owner,
Kinetic Concepts Inc. (symbol: KCI), to the Hot News list this month.
Medicis and Mentor have been added to the Cooling Off list, anticipating
further downward pressure on the share prices.
Click to
go to the Beauty
Stock Report Card, where I line up the P/E, D/E, revenue,
share price and insider trading information on each of these companies.
Full Disclosure: Natalie
Pace does not own shares or positions in any company mentioned in
this article.
Please note: NataliePace.com does
not act or operate like a broker. We are a new media website. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors should NOT be using the
Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their
nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy,
which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional
who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more.
The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very
small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money
you invest into individual companies should never be greater than
your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Grade
Your Guru. Grade Your Broker.
by
Natalie Pace.
 |
Jim Cramer
Host, Mad Money on CNBC-TV |
Is
Jim Cramer making anyone any money? Is your broker a loser if s/he
only returned 3% last year? See how the returns of the market measure
up with your favorite guru and broker!
During
the last recession of 2000-2002, a number of my girlfriends came
to me crying that their husbands and brokers had lost all of their
money. Was it the truth? Had they really lost all of their money,
or simply lost the upside they would have gained if they had sold
at the market highs in March of 2000? And who was really to blame?
Was it their broker’s fault, their husband’s fault, their fault
or are stocks a bad investment, compared to gold, real estate and
bonds?
The
truth of historical returns tells a revealing, under-reported story.
Stocks are still the best game in town.

As
you can see in the chart above, over the last 39 years, stocks have
had great gains, far higher than real estate or gold. The heydays
of 1999 and the sad days of 2000-2002 both capture headlines, but
the truth is that stocks provide steady, reliable and dependable
returns, when you look at a ten or twenty year horizon. In fact,
if you look at the three years before the DOT COM bust, in addition
to the recession in 2000-2002, then you see that the only way you
lost a lot of money is if you jumped into the deep end on NASDAQ
pretty late in the game, in 1999. And if you did, was that your
fault or your broker’s? Seasoned brokers know better than to be
swept up in headlines. That’s a rookie’s mistake. So either you
forced your broker’s hand, or you picked a rookie and need to do
a better job of hiring a professional to manage your money.

Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com
So, the first
rule of grading your broker is, have I made on average at least
10% gains every year? Some years, the returns could be 50% and others
-10%, but if the net gain is 10% annually, then chances are that
you have a reasonably well-diversified portfolio and that your broker
did a good job setting it up for you. If you want to get further
into the detailed analysis, read the article, "Recession
Proof Your Portfolio," in the volume 5, issue 2
NataliePace.com ezine and "How
to Find a Broker" in the Investor Edu section on
the home page of Natalie Pace.com.
So
what about 2007? How did your broker rank last year? The market
returns in 2007 were lower than the average, but still positive.
See the chart directly below.
|
Wednesday,
1.3.2007
|
Monday,
1.2.2008
|
Gains
|
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
+4.6%
|
|
Nasdaq:
2,423.16
|
Nasdaq:
2,609.63
|
+7.7%
|
|
S&P
500: 1,416.60
|
S&P:
1,447.16
|
+2%
|
I
have a friend who was distressed because her portfolio only returned
3% last year. Well, that’s not really so bad given that the S&P500
returned just 2%, right? So, rather than falsely accusing the broker
of doing a bad job, the two partners could look at the statistics
and discuss whether they need more exposure to younger, smaller
companies, where the higher returns are traditionally found.
Rank
Your Guru
I
get a lot of calls from people quoting Cramer. He’s entertaining,
but should you be listening? Would you seek marriage counseling
from someone who had been divorced a number of times? What about
listening to the stock recommendations from someone who had colossal
losers in 2007?
Some of the
biggest losers on Wall Street last year included Jim Cramer’s #1
Growth and Value Stocks. Cramer’s growth pick was the New York Stock
Exchange Euronet (NYX), which dropped -6% in 2007 and -27% from
January 2007 to May 2008. His value selection was Altria (MO), more
commonly known as Philip Morris Tobacco Company, which tumbled -13%
in 2007 and is currently down -23% from January 2007.

Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com

Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com
By
comparison, the 2007 NataliePace.com Company of the Year was Suntech
Power Holdings, which returned 142% on the year and was still up
27% on May 2, 2008.

Source:
MoneyCentral.msn.com
You
only need one or two of these rocket ships in your portfolio to
start enjoying great gains. Now granted, these are just three stocks
and not the entire Jim Cramer or Natalie Pace portfolio. For more
of my statistical returns, read this month’s Hot News on Cool Stocks
article, and you’ll see that over the past six years, almost half
of the stocks that I’ve featured have doubled or more from the time
I feature them to the time that we take them off of the Hot News
list. I have a methodology that combines technical and fundamental
analysis, and it works in both bull and bear markets.
Tipstraders.com
has my annualized gains at 17%, based upon over 400 positions, compared
with Cramer’s at .9%. Their methodology is different than a pure
tracking system, but I haven’t found a tracking system yet that
gives Cramer a high score. If you want to track Jim Cramer’s returns
yourself, just watch his show religiously for a month and log all
of his picks in a fictitious portfolio. Check back in a year. If
you like what you see, keep watching. If not, find a better use
of your time. It’s a good idea to know anyone’s track record before
trusting him or her to be your guru!
So,
for your long-term portfolio, you want an unexciting broker who
can meet or beat the annual returns of 10% or more. Your broker’s
job is to know how to protect and grow your nest egg, all of the
tax-qualified accounts that you can utilize to save 15-40% of your
returns from taxation and safe, high-yielding strategies for diversification
and asset allocation.
For
your stock guru, you’re looking for someone who can step up to the
plate and score – someone who has a track record of hitting home
runs consistently. Don’t assume that the person with the loudest
mouth or the daily television show is more talented than someone
you might have to scout to find. The proof is in the returns. Let
them be your guide!
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Are We At the Bottom
of the Real Estate Crunch?
by Shawn
D. Harris, Mortgage Planning Specialist.
The
short answer is no.
There are two major influences that we have not yet seen that will
affect our real estate market.
#1 – Prime "option arm" loans have not yet reset.
#2 – The government will soon stick its nose into the foreclosure
market.
#1
Everyone knows about the subprime lending meltdown. People
who couldn’t afford houses and whose credit history showed they
are incapable of making consistent payments, bought houses in droves
between 2004 – 2006. Basically all subprime lenders went out
of business in 2007, eliminating subprime financing.
The majority of these loans were fixed for 2 years, with a few fixed
for 3 years. Unlike prime loans, when these loans adjusted, rates
adjust 3% per year for two or three years until it levels off. Typically,
these loans lose their "interest only" features. In affect,
these loans became completely unaffordable.
Much of the drop that we have seen over the past year and a half
has been attributed to these loans. I think there are other,
larger reasons for the drop, but these sub-prime loans have certainly
played a substantial part in the downfall.
If you look at the trend lines, the lower value houses have been
hit the hardest, seeing drops from 30% - 60%, where the more expensive
homes have been hit less, typically 10%-25%. This is mainly
because the predominant financing instrument for large value homes
were "A-paper" loans. There were very few (if almost
none, as a sample of the whole population) sub-prime loans over
$500k.
We are currently seeing a bit of up tick in purchase activity, as
the first set of investors are moving back into the marketplace.
I’m not convinced though that we’ve hit the bottom,
and investors in the buy/flip mode would be wise to wait (though
buy/hold/rent investors may be smart to start looking).
There is still a HUGE portfolio of prime loans that are looking
to reset soon, and this time they will be hitting the nicer homes
and neighborhoods. Loans called "option ARMs" were
extraordinarily popular for the past five years, and by my estimate
70% of loans over $1 million were option ARMs (go ahead, look through
a current copy of "Dream Homes Magazine" and notice the
mortgage adds). These loans gave the option to pay less than what
was actually owed, and the difference was added to the remaining
loan balance.
These loans were targeted to two types of people. The first
set was people who wanted a house larger than what they could afford
(the incorrect use). The second set was investors or financially
sophisticated people who could use the saved monthly payment for
other, better paying investments (the correct use). Unfortunately,
the first set greatly outnumbered the second set.
There is a surprise ticking time bomb in these loans that could
devastate this first set of homeowners. If the deferred payments
(that difference between what is owed and what is paid) hits a certain
level, anywhere from 10% to 25% of the initial loan balance, the
loan immediately loses its "minimum payment" option, and
in many cases loses the interest only option.
Once it hits, payments will double (similar to the subprime problem).
There is not a hard timeframe on when this will happen, but
based upon the way interest rates have been moving, we will start
to see the first of these loans resetting in six months or so. They
will peak in a year and a half. According to Slate.com, between
2005 – 2007, WAMU and Countrywide originated over $300 billion (yes
billion) worth of these loans, the majority of which were in California.
There was a large reason that when WAMU was recently
in financial trouble, it could find no institution investors to
purchase it, and had to rely upon a cash infusion of a private equity
fund (which led to massive layoffs and the closing of several major
portions of their business).
It depends upon how the lenders treat these loans, but if they allow
these loans to reset and the payments drastically increase, we are
in for another big drop, this time in the higher end market. I
hope (and suspect) that the banks that still have these loans in
their possession will be nimble enough to adjust and keep these
loans from defaulting in bulk. However, the industry has shown that
it cannot work quickly or efficiently when trying to adjust the
terms on loans that have been sold on the secondary market (which
are the bulk of the loans).
Certainly, the rich have a better chance of surviving a large payment
change, but I think it would be an error to assume that it was the
rich who were buying those nice homes (particularly in the $600k
– $1.2m range). A mortgage payment based upon a $1,000,000
loan amount, a 40-year term and a 1% minimum payment option is $2,528.
A mortgage payment on a $400,000 loan, fully amortized
at 6% is $2,398. Aside from property taxes, they’re basically
the same payment.
#2
If the government looks to intervene in the process of banks
foreclosing on homes and grant relief to the homeowner, look for
another big drop.
Recently, the federal government granted relief to homeowners who
are moving through the foreclosure process. If a homeowner
has his property foreclosed upon, or moves through a "short
sale", the fed government has placed certain moratoriums disallowing
the lenders to issue a 1099 to the homeowners.
Typically in a foreclosure or short sale, the lender has the option
of issuing the homeowner a 1099 to allow the lender to write off
the loss as an expense. Regardless of what the homeowner does, whether
it is moving through a foreclosure or bankruptcy, that homeowner
will eventually have to pay taxes on that 1099. If the bankruptcy
or short sale occurs this year, with this new government intervention,
they won’t get that 1099.
So this allows the homeowner to rid himself of his home with the
only real negative affects being he has to move and his credit is
ruined.
The government did this in an effort to blunt the economic damages
to the homeowner. However, they have created an interesting
side affect. They have provided incentives to people to walk
away from their homes. Based upon my personal experience, I have
nine borrowers prequalified to purchase a new house. Of those
nine, five of them are in the process of walking away from their
current homes.
People are smart. If the government is going to allow them
to rid themselves of their current homes with no major financial
considerations, they will do so. In fact, before they completely
walk away from their current home, they are purchasing another,
similar home with a mortgage payment substantially lower than their
current payment.
I know what I have seen is anecdotal, and perhaps a little ahead
of the curve, but I am certain that others will be following this
lead.
I’m not 100% sure if how this will affect a drop in home values.
Though these homeowners are dumping their higher priced home,
and purchasing a cheaper one, it could be that they are just reinforcing
the bottom on the market, not driving it down further. In
my experience, these people are not looking for the absolute cheapest
property to purchase, since whatever they buy will create a substantial
monthly savings.
Any way, be wary of the government getting too involved in this
mess. Certainly some help is expected and advised, but I believe
that the market has the ability to work itself out.
That’s it from me. As always, email me with any questions
or if you think I’m an idiot and got something wrong.
Cordially,
Shawn D Harris
Broker/Owner
Mortgage Planning Specialist
I Appreciate Referrals .... If you know someone who needs expert
mortgage advice contact me.
Direct: 800.871.7987 x 702
Fax: 888.326.5016
www.ctm-financial.com

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|
Ask Natalie: Should
I Use My Tax Refund to Pay Down Debt?
Dear
Natalie. The IRS is sending out stimulus checks to all taxpayers,
plus I’m getting another $5,000 back in my tax refund. Should I
pay down the debt on my credit cards, take a vacation or invest
the money? My wife and I can’t agree. Help! Signed: Vacation Happy
Dear Vacation
Happy: If you’ve ever played my Billionaire
Game, then you know that I believe there is a divine
flow of money that, when followed, leads to the rich life. The Billionaire
Game takes you through the process of how you would spend that money
if you had all the money in the world. When you apply that logic
and those disciplines to your current situation, then the right
answer for your and your wife becomes VERY clear! So, take the time
to play the Billionaire Game with your wife to help resolve
this. You can get the details of the Billionaire
Game in the volume 5, issue 3 NataliePace.com ezine.
According
to an Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance poll released on
April 10, 2008, the majority of Americans are spending their refunds
this year to pay bills and to pay down debt. As a point of policy,
I don’t think that is a good idea, for a number of reasons. In the
natural world, what you focus on expands. If you focus on debt or
if you’re stuck in the rut of basic needs and survival, you never
get out of it largely because you haven’t changed the habits that
got you into debt in the first place. If you focus on wealth creation
strategies, then you step into a healthy relationship with money
that allows you to earn more and spend less in a more balanced way,
while eliminating your debt and making sure it never builds up to
an albatross again.
Let’s
say that $5,000 refund was a $1,000,000 inheritance. If you thought
about paying down $100,000 debt first, then you wipe 1/10 of your
money out of the inheritance and bring the principle down to $900,000.
If you invested the money, then your debt could be paid with the
returns, as average returns on $1,000,000 are 10% annually, or $100,000
per year. In that scenario, your debt could be paid off in one year,
and you preserve all of your principle. The following year, you
should have $100,000 income (that 10% return) to enrich your lifestyle.
Put
your debt on a payment plan that is consistent with the 50% to survive
and 50% to thrive "Buy My Own Island" plan that is outlined
in the Billionaire Game. (Debt repayment is part of your survival,
incidentally, not your thriving.) The reality is that when you get
your debt on a payment plan, get your spending in line with the
Thrive budget and focus on increasing your monthly income through
your job as well as your investments, you are embracing a strategy
that works. When you try to decrease debt simply by making a lump
sum payment, the odds that you build it up again are extremely high,
because your income hasn’t increased, your spending hasn’t decreased,
your investments haven’t flourished and your skill level hasn’t
improved. In order to become wealthier than you are today, all of
those things should be addressed – more income, more education,
more skills, better investing habits and a lower monthly nut!
As
an example of how this works, there was a woman we’ll call Wendy.
Wendy had put about $30,000 on credit cards when she was launching
her business in 2003. Her business wasn’t doing so well, so by 2005,
she was barely paying the minimum payment each month. As a result,
the penalties and interest had doubled her debt to almost $60,000.
Wendy called the credit card company, told them her dire situation
and started a monthly payment plan of a minimum amount that she
could afford at the time. In 2008, Wendy was contacted by the debt
collector at the credit card company and asked if she was interested
in setting up a repay plan that was more acceptable to the company.
The
debt collector was initially aggressive about the principal and
need for a high payment, which was much higher than anything Wendy
could really afford. When the collector said, "But your debt
is almost $60,000!" Wendy responded by pointing out that half
of the debt was penalties and interest. She also noted that she’d
been faithful about making payments on the debt, even though her
business had been struggling.
As
a result of religiously paying the minimum payment over the last
three years and pointing out to the debt collector that original
amount owed was only $30,000, Wendy was able negotiate a new principal
of $45,000 and monthly payments to pay off the debt, which were
well within her ability to repay. If Wendy continues to make her
payments on time, there will be no further penalties or interest
on the account.
With
that out of the way, Wendy focused on getting a book deal to promote
her business, on getting her business cash positive and partnering
with some big partners in achieving her goal. That focus resulted
in a lot more income to her. More income means that she has the
ability to make bigger monthly payments on the debt going forward,
and potentially even under better terms. On the other hand, if Wendy’s
focus had been solely on paying down debt, instead of on business
expansion as well, she might have made a slightly larger payment,
but nothing close to the $15,000 of the debt, which was written
off. And who knows if she would have gotten into a position of earning
more income so quickly!
Debt
is similar to dieting. When you adopt healthy eating habits, you’re
more likely to lose weight and never gain it back. When you "diet,"
you’re more likely to yo-yo between weight loss and weight gain.
When you adopt healthy fiscal habits, you’re more likely to create
wealth. When you try to pay down debt in one lump sum, you’re more
likely to balloon back up to serious debt fairly quickly, which
keeps you too sad, depressed and at wit’s end to focus on wealth
generating strategies and investments!
In
short, the good news, Vacation Happy, is that a healthy approach
to money includes fun, so you get to have your vacation,
your investments and to pay down debt, too! If you really want to
get into the flow of prosperity, that $5,000 plus refund should
also include two items that were not on your list – charity and
education. There is no reason to stay trapped in yo-yo debt dieting,
when you can adopt the habits of the very wealthy and start living
a richer life right here and now.
Be sure to share
where you go, what you invest in and the fantastic results of your
own debt repayment negotiations at my AskNatalie
blog at http://asknataliepace.blogspot.com/!
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Great Mother's Day
Gift Ideas.
by
Natalie Pace.
Every
year, we do a survey, and overwhelmingly, our moms report
that they prefer stock, cash, spa gift certificates and vacations
over chocolate and flowers. If you are a mom, please weigh
in on your favorite gift at the survey
on the home page at NataliePace.com. That way your
hubby and kids have a chance of getting you what you really
desire. (Just leave the page open on your computer strategically…)
Check out what this year’s survey reveals if you’re looking
to buy Mom something she’ll really appreciate!
Here’s
another gift idea. Sugar scrubs are all the rage at the expensive
spas, and the below recipe is one that combines some of the
most luxurious oils for skin. While most scrubs you buy at
the store contain large amounts of less expensive (and less
beneficial) oils, this recipe combines Vitamin E, avocado
oil and jojoba for a quality gift that costs half the price
of the luxury brand scrubs.
|
ROSE-SCENTED
SUGAR SCRUB
Makes
3-4 medium-sized scrubs
Ingredients
4
- 24 oz. packages of turbinado sugar
8
oz. avocado oil
8
oz. sweet almond oil
8
oz. grapeseed oil
4
oz. jojoba oil
4
oz. Vitamin E oil
tsp. grapefruit seed extract
3
oz. maraschino cherries (with fluid)
5
drops concentrated rose oil
Puree
cherries. Set aside. Mix oils together. Add 5 drops of rose essence,
grapefruit seed extract and the blended cherries to the oil.
Measure
sugar in desired container. Pour sugar in a separate bowl. Add oil
in a ratio of about 2 parts sugar to 1 part oil mixture. (You want
enough oil to cover but not drown the sugar.) Fold the oil into
the sugar mixture with a minimum amount of strokes (to keep the
sugar granules from dissolving). Pour the scrub into the container.
Decorate
the container, and include the recipe when you give the scrub away
as a gift.
This
recipe uses only the finest oils. The sugar exfoliates the skin,
while the oils replenish and soften the skin. Designer scrubs can
cost more up to $50 for a small container, and they often rely upon
inexpensive oil bases (which aren't as luxurious for the skin, clog
the pores and leave an oily residue).
I
love making a batch of these scrubs for my girlfriends. Let's face
it. Mothers work very hard, and deserve to get a great, unexpected
gift. And when you spoil your friends with something made with your
own hands, they remember it! (Don't forget to make an extra scrub
for yourself.)
If
you need to keep costs down, shop for your containers at the dollar
store and buy your oils at a Trader Joe’s or Coop.
Charitable
Donations and In Memoriam Gifts for Mom
If
your mother has everything she could possibly want or has already
passed to the other side, consider making a charitable contribution
on Mother’s Day to honor her. There are many great nonprofit organizations
to choose from. Below are just a few:
Us
Foundation. Non-profit organization delivering anti-parasite
medication and vitamins to extremely poor children in India. Learn
more in Marilyn Tam’s article this month or at UsFoundation.org.
CoAbode.org.
Single mothers house sharing web site. CoAbode provides one of the
simplest, most effective ways for a single mother to reduce living
expenses, increase the earning power of her income, have an extra
parent around for childcare and camaraderie and create more leisure
time for playful interaction with her children.
MakeItRightNOLA.org.
Brad Pitt’s plan to build green affordable housing on a large scale
to help victims of Hurricane Katrina.
Peace,
prosperity and love,
Natalie
|
|
Wise
Talk, Wild Women.
by Gwen
Mazer. Portraits
by Christine Alicino. Publisher
Council Oaks Books Hardcover, 2007.
Introduction.
Adapted Excerpt
 |
| Gwen Mazer,
author of Wise Talk Wild Women Photograph by Chris Johnson
|
Wise Talk
Wild Women is a series of candid conversations with women of
substance, at 60 and beyond, about life love, lesson learned. Ranging
from futurist Barbara Marx Hubbard to poet Nikki Giovanni, these
conversations reflect a shift in the beliefs, ideas and attitudes
of women living in the 21st century. The women span a
broad spectrum of experience, having engaged life in many different
ways.
I
began to gestate a series of questions that would form the background
for this tapestry of conversations. What experiences were common
among us? What had dictated our life choices? Who were we now, and
how did we see our futures?
Keiko
Fukuda exhibited traits that I would find common among the women
I talked with. Each was her own individual. Each danced to her own
drum. Even if she had tried to force herself into a cultural mold,
her individuality and need to create kept popping out. Each one
needed to create a life and an identity, an expression in the world,
and each one seemed to find her own purpose, her own center. They
could not be tamed. They were wild women in the truest sense.
One
of the most crucial things the women shared was the ability to operate
from intuition, and many believed this to be more and more important
as they grew older. Many felt their spirituality and their intuition
to be entwined – that the "wise woman within" will never
lead us astray.
As
Dolores Huerta says, "We need to be out in the world." Then we get
a sense not only of ourselves, but also of our place in the scheme
of things and our power to create for the good of all. Some of the
women I spoke with knew from childhood what they were going to do
in the world; others stumbled into their paths; still others were
thwarted in their initial choice but found another of equal value.
Glady Thacher wanted to be an artist, but she married and had several
children. Still, that creative energy was bubbling, and eventually
it found an outlet; her career was not intentional. Belva Davis,
on the other hand, hid from a chaotic childhood in a fortress of
books and film until the day she simply woke up, said, "I'm going
to have a life," and intentionally went about creating one. Donna
Eden turned a difficult early marriage, a serious illness, and a
gift for perceiving energy into a lifework of healing. Jo Hanson
rejected the fundamentalist Hillerite sect of her upbringing and
found her way to the Hawaiian spiritual practice of Huna.
The
portraits in this book show women who are beautifully alive in their
unique physical presence and in the power centered within their
deepest selves. They have been able to prune and shape the branches
of their lives and become their imaginings.
Instead
of growing old, we can grow into age, into all the different aspects
of ourselves. We can grow in gratitude, in trust, in understanding
of ourselves and others. We can grow in compassion. The media has
portrayed age as rigidity, but I see age as fluidity. We have the
wisdom to live in the present moment with peace, no matter what
the circumstances.
I
see in age the chance to grow into forgiveness, of ourselves and
others, to let go of grievances and to be open to new experiences
so that we do not become like root-bound plants that knurl up and
turn into themselves. Like plants, those of us who get air and light
and sunshine continue to unfold and to grow.
The
world is waiting for the unique gift that you alone have to give.
Wise
Talk, Wild Women chronicles the inspiring life stories of
women of substance creating great lives -- at midlife and beyond.
To purchase a copy, click on the title or go to Amazon.com.
For more information,
contact Gwen Mazer at GwenMazer.com.
|
|
Gratitude.
by
Marilyn Tam, Co-founder, Us Foundation.
In
this second of two articles, Marilyn Tam chronicles her trek to
India to provide anti-parasitic medicine and Vitamin A to impoverished
children in India. See Marilyn’s first article, "Abundance,"
in volume 5, issue 4.
Dear
Friends,
More
on my adventure. When I get home I’ll include photos. You have to
see the beauty, the inspiration and the bleak conditions….
We
had an amazing day. We went to a desperately poor area today where
everyone is so malnourished that I was the tallest person there
and definitely the fattest. The children are so small they look
at least several years younger than they are until you look into
their faces and get a sense of their true ages. The illiteracy is
almost 100%; in fact most of the people including adults do not
know how old they are because they cannot count or add. Heart breaking
to work with such dire conditions, and also that is why we are here
doing what we do.
HH
Sai Maa Lakshmi Devi has just been gifted land in this area and
I know that she is thinking of building a clinic here. It would
be so great to have medical support here. There was a boy with a
broken arm that has healed in a crooked fashion and there is nothing
we can do for him, very sad. Many of the children have obvious diseases
like jaundice, ring worms, vision problems, beri beri, fungus, scabies
and drastically stunted growth. The adults are also malnourished,
and I just wish there was so much more I can do to help. My mind
is spinning as to how we can do more.
The
land is very rocky here and the main work they have is to dig rocks
up and break them up into sand and sell that to brick making factories.
They do everything manually, yes, dig up rocks, pound them into
sand and then make bricks from them all by hand with very primitive
tiny little hammers and spades. They make from 40-100 rupees a day
if they are lucky, that translates to $1-2US; on that they have
to feed, clothe and pay for all living expenses; obviously school
is not included in the consideration. They also make cow dung patties
for fuel but that mainly is for their own use.
Today
I had the first experience of eating bread made in
a cow dung fire; not an experience that I am anticipating repeating
if I can help it. It tasted marginally normal if you don’t consider
how it was cooked, and although I ate with positive thoughts, I
certainly can’t say it was a culinary highlight. Being in that deeply
impoverished area, there are no restaurants and we ate at Satuwa
Baba’s ashram. That is how everyone here cooks their food, with
cow dung. It is the main if not only source of fuel and energy;
needless to say electricity is a huge luxury. The bread (buns) are
placed right into the cow dung fire and cooked in it, with HH Sai
Maa and Satuwa Baba looking on while everybody ate….. I have to
say that there was more eating than I would have expected, maybe
because everyone was so hungry and exhausted from working under
such harsh conditions. Sai Maa didn’t eat more than one bite of
rice, she doesn’t eat much; wish I could have done the same but
I wanted to be present and share the total experience of the people.
Well, at least as much as I could manage without completely driving
myself nuts.
Tomorrow
I am working with the state and local officials and IMA (India Medical
Association) to organize the ongoing logistics of the distribution
of anti-parasitic medicine and vitamin A for 100,000 children for
the next three years and to develop potentially a bigger ongoing
program. I am leaving for Delhi the day after and it will take me
one whole day to get to Hong Kong from there. My mother is leaving
for Vancouver that day and we may be able to have lunch together
before she departs. I stay one more night and then I’ll be on my
way home. Yippee!
It
is about 9:45pm and I am bone tired. The strain of traveling for
miles on trying road conditions between horrendous traffic with
suicidal drivers, pedestrians, pedicabs, tractor hauling brick wagons,
oxen carts, bicycles, motor cycles, cows, goats, dogs, one elephant,
the occasional motor cycle swallowing potholes and looking into
the sometimes hopeful and oftentimes weary and blank eyes of the
many frail and bony children and adults all day is wearing. I wish
I could do so much more. I look forward to sharing with you my thoughts
on how we can make a huge difference with a little money. Gratitude
for our lives is so easy when one considers how many other people
live.
Marilyn Tam
went to India as the facilitator of a collaboration of three organizations,
Us Foundation www.usfoundation.org
, Humanity in Unity www.humanityinunity.org
and Vitamin Angels Alliance www.vitaminangels.org
to provide anti-parasitic medicine and vitamin A for 100,000 children.
As the representative of Us Foundation, Marilyn took the lead in
organizing this project and is responsible for implementing the
program. Marilyn’s group works with the local teams affiliated with
Humanity in Unity, distributing the anti-parasitic medicine and
vitamin A to prevent blindness, improve their immune systems and
brain development and to educate and hand out hygiene and nutrition
picture flyers translated into the local language so that the children,
parents and teachers could take the information to their villages.
If you are interested
in participating in a future mission, please log onto www.humanityinunity.org
and www.usfoundation.org
For tax deductible donations to this program, please send your donation
to the India children’s project at:
Us
Foundation
P.O. Box 5780
Santa Barbara, CA 93150
www.Usfoundation.org
Marilyn Tam
is the founder and executive director of Us
Foundation, the author of "How
to Use What You’ve Got to Get What You Want,"
and former President of Reebok Apparel Products & Retail Group.
Marilyn’s vision is to expand the current 100,000 children’s health
& education program in Varanasi, India to a program which will
serve all the millions of children whose families subsist on under
$1US a day in India… Us Foundation will be collaborating with the
same organizations above, adding Save the Children, and eventually
will be doing this program in 41 countries!
|
|
Health
is Wealth: How Lifestyle Affects Gastrointestinal Health.
by
Joanna Ransier, Registered Nurse, HealthWalk.com© Health Guide.
The
brain and the gut are intricately entwined. In fact, anyone who
has ever felt butterflies in the stomach before giving a speech,
taking a test, or a bout of intestinal urgency the night before
an important appointment has experienced the actions of the dual
nervous systems. Butterflies in the stomach are caused by a surge
of stress hormones released by the body in a ‘fight, flight or freeze’
situation. Stress can also over stimulate nerves in the esophagus,
causing a feeling of choking. How and what you are thinking dramatically
affects what goes on in your bowels. Having a ‘gut feeling’ may
not just be a phrase, but a true representation of gut intelligence.
Scientists
have begun calling the gut "the second brain". This second
brain is referred to as the enteric nervous system (part of the
autonomic nervous system). Both the gut and the brain have chemical
messengers called neurotransmitters. In fact, 95% of the body’s
serotonin (the brain chemical that many popular antidepressants
increase) is located in the gut. Serotonin also acts as a go-between,
keeping the brain in the skull up to date with what is happening
in the brain below. Such communication is mostly one way, with 90%
traveling from the gut to the head. There are actually more nerve
cells in the gut than there are in the entire spinal column.
The
role of the enteric nervous system is to manage every aspect of
digestion, from the esophagus to the stomach, small intestine and
colon. The gut monitors pressure. It monitors the progress of digestion.
It detects nutrients, and it measures acid and salts. It’s a little
chemical lab.
The
most interesting part of all is that all this happens without any
conscious thought or effort on our part. We don’t need to tell the
gut how to digest food; its innate knowledge already knows. That’s
the good part. The flip side of the wonderful workings of the gut
is that, as mentioned earlier, our thoughts can have an instantaneous
and profound effect on the functioning of the gut as well, such
as in a sudden shock that activates the ‘flight, fight or freeze’
reaction before we even realize it’s happening.
So,
what does all this mean in terms of having a healthy gut? Even though
the functioning of the gut is mostly automatic there are some lifestyle
habits that, if followed, can support having a ‘happy tummy’.
When,
where and how you eat are closely related to how well your intestinal
system works or doesn’t work. Skipping breakfast or having irregular
meal times not only puts strain on the stomach but also impacts
blood sugar equilibrium. A healthy practice is to provide your body
with fuel as you start the day. You wouldn’t expect your car to
run on empty; don’t expect it of your body. If you’re not accustomed
to eating in the morning, try starting with an apple or a handful
of raw organic almonds. It doesn’t have to be fancy. If possible,
space your meals at regular intervals. No need to be rigid about
this, just a gentle awareness of taking time to give yourself some
good nourishment to keep your energy up and your stomach in good
working order.
Your
eating environment is also important. In our fast paced society,
we have all probably engaged in desktop or dashboard dining. If
the gut is busy accommodating for our stressful lifestyle and you
put food into it, it doesn’t know whether to handle the stress or
the digestion properly. Handling stress and digesting food require
opposite activities of the gut and it will usually opt for handling
the stress because it perceives it as life threatening. Have you
ever noticed that after eating during a tense conversation, how
the food seems to sit like a lump in your stomach? It’s a good idea
for gut health to create a peaceful setting so that both you and
your stomach are relaxed.
And
lastly, how you eat definitely affects the digestion process. We
have all developed eating habits and patterns, ranging from finishing
a full meal at the speed of light to being slower than slow. Are
you the first one finished or always the last to leave the table?
Of course, finding the middle ground is always the best. One way
to monitor yourself regardless of which side of middle you find
yourself, is to chew your food thoroughly and stop when you feel
full. Digestion starts in the mouth when the saliva and food are
mixed together by chewing. Take the time to really enjoy the flavor
and texture of your food and know you are doing your stomach a favor
by reducing its workload. It’s a good idea to refrain from using
a beverage to help swallow your food. If you find that you are the
‘slow poke’ at the table, you might want to consider checking in
with yourself to find out if you are full and just eating because
the food is on the plate.
Remember
your body is the only one you’ve got. You can’t trade it in for
a new one like you can a car. If you take care of it, it will take
care of you by gifting you with high level performance and vibrant
health. One way to take care of your gastro-intestinal system is
to provide it with healthy micro-organisms called probiotics. If
you look at the word ‘probiotics’ you will find ‘pro’ meaning ‘to
be for’ and ‘bio’ meaning ‘life’. So probiotics are bacteria that
help life. They are needed to create a healthy balance in the gut.
If you have taken antibiotics, had a bout of constipation or diarrhea,
travel a lot, or are experiencing physical or emotional stress,
you need to replenish your depleted intestinal flora with probiotics.
You
can do this with the HealthWalk’s BioNue™. BioNue™ is
a powerful combination of broad spectrum probiotics and the only
one on the market which contains Lactobacillus Sporogenes. L Sporogense
has recently been found to produce the beneficial lactic acid that
improves probiotic shelf life and is able to survive the digestive
processes in the stomach and thrive and support the metabolic processes
in the intestinal tract. Used according to directions BioNue™
will support you in moving forward on your path to a healthy, well
functioning digestive system and vibrant health.
Joanna
Ransier is a registered nurse specializing in Integrative Medicine
modalities, the energy systems of the body, and stress resilience.
HealthWalk
is a healthcare company which offers leading edge, scientifically
proven and effective products and services that provide an integrated
healthcare system for a vibrant life. HealthWalk offers non-invasive
and effective long-term support to enable the body’s own innate
powers to do the healing. One of their services is to provide guidance
on healthy nutrition based on your individual needs and life style,
juicing, whole food blending, nutritious meal plans and supplements,
including HealthWalk’s Rupronol http://healthwalk.com/health-walk-product.aspx?ID=5
(to fend off viruses and bacteria). HealthWalk’s mission: Vibrant
health, you can attain it and we are here to support you on your
path to regaining and maintaining it. You can read and subscribe
to their monthly newsletter at http://healthwalk.com/health-walk-newsletter-list.aspx.
For more information, go to HealthWalk.com.
|
|
Summertime:
Will the Living Be Easier on Wall Street?
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2006
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday,
1.2.2008
|
Monday,
5.5.2008
|
Gains
2-year , 1-year & 5 mo.
|
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 12, 977.03
|
+20% & +4% & flat
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,243.74
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 2,463.04
|
+10% & +2% & -6%
|
|
S&P: 1,268.80
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 1,408.39
|
+11% & flat & -3%
|
Market
Commentary
The International
Monetary Fund said total losses due to the financial market turmoil
may grow to $945 billion. This is a substantial increase from the
current write-down total of $232 billion, according to Bloomberg.com.
With such a dramatic (and potentially catastrophic shock to the
financial markets), I consulted global strategist Marc Miles, who
commented by email:
I have no
idea of the accuracy of the IMF number. In general, they
are not particularly reliable. But, let’s say they are right.
Okay, the number is out there, the stock market has fallen
a bit overall and the financials have been hit. In other
words, this number has been priced into the market. The question
then is whether this is the ultimate total, or merely the next
plateau in the write-offs. My guess is that if anything
they have overestimated the problem, which means that further
news is likely to be positive. As they say, buy on the
bad news, sell on the good. My forecast that I gave you
at the end of February has been fairly accurate. Based
on that and the likelihood that the worst has been discounted,
this might be a good time to buy financials. It definitely
is a good time to buy stocks in general. Maybe you won’t
see why in the next month, but you will in the next quarter.
Marc A. Miles, Ph.D.
Global Economist and Strategist
"Borders create opportunities
 |
|
Photo
by: Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008
Stylist:
Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079
|
It turns out
we did see why in the same month that Marc issued this statement
to me. He sent it on April 9, 2008.
Since that time,
the markets have had quite a rally, clawing back almost to the position
they started the year on.
Does that mean
I like the marketplace for the summer? While I have huge respect
for Dr. Miles, I just don’t have that much faith in the intelligence
of this mini-rally. It smells to me of desperate money managers
and brokers trying to capitalize on April (taxes) client meetings
by saying that everything is cheap.
The underlying
fundamentals are the worst I’ve seen since I began publishing in
2002. GDP growth rate has flat-lined. Oil is over $100/barrel. Companies
are laying off employees. Inflation is being under-reported (because
it excludes gas and food, two of the biggest drains on the consumer’s
wallet). In fact, I’ve got to search long and hard for any shade
of optimism in the marketplace. The Chief Optimism Officer of years
past, economist Dr. Gary Becker, who usually pulls a positive productivity
number out of his hat to explain why America will do well even though
we have only three workers for every retiring Baby Boomer, wasn’t
very rosy last week when I ran into him at the Milken Global Conference.
The best he could say was, "It’s going to get worse, but I
don’t anticipate a major depression."
Thus, though
I typically don’t follow the adage, "Sell in May and go away,"
(because there are too many conflicting, underlying factors that
vary year by year), this year, I’m a fan of taking any profit any
time you can get your hands on one. When the fundamentals don’t
support a market run-up, the support mechanism for the increase
in share prices is hot air – headlines that have shifted away from
foreclosures and toward another fad or money managers talking as
fast as they can to keep their job. If there is a need for alarming
headlines between now and September, there are many startling facts
which can be trotted out to scare the heck out of investors, including
the likely truth that the complete fall-out of the subprime mortgages
is not over, nor is the real estate pullback, which means lower
net worth for each household in the U.S., which means no equity
ATM to keep the economy running on the consumer wallet and lower
profits which constrict corporate spending. Without consumer spending,
corporation spending or real estate values, how can Wall Street
continue to impress quarterly earnings junkies?
Additionally,
you’ve got a lot of money managers, hedge fund managers and high
net worth investors who are plenty unhappy with the returns they’ve
made since January 2007. That’s when there is an extreme amount
of pressure to take on additional risk and make some gains any way
anyhow. You’ll see opportunistic investing in short windows. When
the market drops, there will be a surge in buying, in the hopes
of a run-up in a short window and some gains. When you say a dramatic
run-up, there will be short-selling and put options, trying to capitalize
on the bear market (and pulling down the prices with the sheer weight
and power of the big investor plays). Take a look at just how many
times the market has seesawed since January and you’ll see what
I’m talking about. You’ll also see that we are currently poised
at the top of the trading range this year, which could mean now
is ripe for another pullback.

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
So, my mantra
this month really isn’t "Sell in May and go away." It’s:
"Take your profits early and often." If you’ve made gains
above 12% in your trading portfolio, take them. Be patient about
buying back in. (Remember: this applies to your trading portfolio.
In your nest egg, you should be taking a longer view.) Then reread
the "Recession
Proof Your Portfolio" and "Trading
Tips for Turbulent Times" articles from the volume
5, issue 2 NataliePace.com ezine to make sure that you’ve got your
defensive game on.
Special
Note on Google:
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average has gained 650 points since the mid-month update
on Monday, April 14, 2008. In keeping with the policy of short-term
profit taking, please note that the Google share price hit $593
today. Those who bought Google at $412 when we highlighted it on
the Hot News list earlier this year have made over 44% gains. Good
enough for your trading portfolio in the crazy 2008 marketplace.
The current
market climate is still hostile, and the corrections of share prices
might not yet be over. In other words, you might still be in a position
to buy Google at a lower price over the next 18 months, and if you
sold Google for a gain, rather than buying it at it’s high, you
will be very happy that you are abiding by my mandate of "taking
your profits early and often."
In fact, if
you are really interested in trying to capture gains, you might
even consider a Google put. Not because Google is a bad company,
but because Google is volatile and the market trend has been reversing
itself severely when it hits the ceiling. (If you do not know what
a Google put is, consider coming to the May Retreat in Santa Monica,
California.) A rising tide lifts all ships. A sinking tide grounds
all ships.
Win the
May Retreat!
How would
you like an opportunity to win a free admission to the May Get Rich
and Healthy Retreat in Santa Monica, California. Renew your subscription
now at the three month subscription rate, and you will receive nine
months free and you will be entered in the Subscribers only
drawing to come to the May 2008 retreat. (12 months for $75 means
that you are paying LESS THAN LUNCH to receive the news, information
and education that could be your meal ticket to the rich life!)
You must renew your subscription before Mother’s Day, May 11, 2008,
to be eligible for the chance to win. Get more information on the
retreat on the home page at NataliePace.com, under the Get Rich
and Healthy banner ad.
Track
Record of our Reporting
While
the markets have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists
below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years.
18 companies listed below have performed quite strongly, while the
year has stumbled with negative returns, versus just seven that
went in the opposite direction of the reporting. Even during the
flat year of 2007, our featured companies had outstanding performance
between Oct. 2006 and June 2007! 4 out of 9 companies – almost half
– doubled or more from the time they were featured to the time they
were taken off of the list. 48% of the companies featured in my
stock newsletter between 2002 and 2005 – 25 out of 52 companies
-- DOUBLED as well, and the majority of the remaining 52% well outperformed
the marketplace. (See the chart in the article, "25
of Our Companies Have Doubled," from volume 4, issue
4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
3 out
of 5 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year have posted up to 9000%
gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively. MySpace, my 2006 Company of
the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders
that year. Only OSI Pharmaceuticals, my 2005 Company of the
Year, has lost money. So three out of five are superperformers,
one is performing well above the market and one is down. That’s
the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street. (I
launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first
Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)
TipsTraders.com
continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with
their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied
the #1 position. Some of our best picks include: Bioteq Environmental
(BQE) +144%, Blockbuster Video (BBI) +82.5%, Genentech (DNA) +415%,
Google (GOOG) +545%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +139%, LifeCell (LIFC)
+180%, Macerich (MAC) +150%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP)
+145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser
(TASR) up to 9000% gains and World Water & Solar (WWAT) +181%.
Market
Movers:
The Bureau
of Economic Analysis released its advance report on the 1st quarter
2008 GDP growth on April 30th. The numbers came in at
.6% -- a screeching halt from the robust 4.9% GDP growth in the
3rd quarter of 2007. The next GDP growth report – preliminary
estimates for the 1st quarter 2008 GDP growth – will
be released on May 29, 2008. This is a report that will be widely
watched by institutional investors because it also includes corporate
profitability for the first quarter 2008, so expect May 29th to
be another wild ride in the markets.
For more BEA
release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Federal
Open Market Committee has dropped the Fed Fund Rate each of the
last six sessions. The Fed funds rate currently stands at two percent.
Expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to continue to
ease investor worries, while monitoring inflation. The prevailing
sentiment is still weak growth, a continued housing slump, more
subprime foreclosures, a weak dollar, anemic consumer spending,
turmoil in banks and financial services, rising gas and food prices
and rising unemployment. (Yikes!)
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the press
release of the April 29-30, 2008 FOMC meeting for yourself?
You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available
online. Click on FOMC, or
go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! According to the press release,
"Economic activity remains weak. Household and business
spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further.
Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight
credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are
likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2008 calendar is: June 24-25,
2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 5, 2008 (Tuesday), September
16, 2008 (Tuesday), October 28-29, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
December 16, 2008 (Tuesday).
- Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out
the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are
many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, life coaches, economists, respected money gurus,
real estate veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates
of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication
date of our next ezine. Get more information on how to best
use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor
Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
- Survey
Results: Hey
Mom. What do you want for Mother’s Day? Take the survey if you’re
a mom and check out the results if you are honoring Mom!
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your
certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment
strategy.
Hot News
List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
Altair
Nanotechnology (ALTI)
Genentech
(DNA)
Kinetic
Concepts (KCI)
Smith
& Nephew (SNN)
U.S.
Gold (UXG)
Wisdom
Tree (WSDT)
World
Water & Solar (WWAT)
DELETIONS
(Remember to take your profits early and often):
Echelon
General
Electric
Google
(deleted on 4.21.08)
Johnson
& Johnson (deleted on 5.5.08)
LDK
Solar
Microsoft
Satcon
Suntech
Power Holdings
Trina
Solar Ltd.
World
Water & Solar
Zoltec
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price 5.5.08
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Altair
Nanotech-nology
RISK:
MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$2.65
|
$2.36
|
$5.45
$1.97
|
-11%
|
|
Read the
Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, iss. 6. Looking
to add back to the Hot News List at a better price point.
The CEO and President Alan Gotcher agreed to resign as chief
executive on 2.27.08. He was immediately replaced by interim
CEO Terry Copeland. We asked the company to provide additional
information as to Dr. Gotcher’s abrupt departure and received
no return call or email. Without this news, a 25% pullback
on this stock (which is what has occurred since the beginning
of the year, when the stock was trading at $3.54), would have
been enough to to put Altair back on the Hot list. Altair
Nanotechnology is the bell of the ball with regard to the
batteries being used in electric cars, like Phoenix Motor
Cars Sports Utility Truck. The company also received a $2.5
million order from the U.S. Navy (on 1.30.08). The CEO’s departure
could be a bigger problem waiting to be revealed. It could
also be a major step in accelerating growth for the company.
At any rate, the products could be strong enough to withstand
the issues of the departure if they are negative and glisten
in the summer sun, if a new CEO is what’s needed to really
capitalize on Altair’s excellent product line.
Reported
year-end results on 3.12.08: For the year ended December 31,
2007, the company reported revenues of $9.11 million as compared
with $4.32 million for 2006. The net loss for 2007 was $31.47
million, or 45 cents per share, compared with a net loss of
$17.20 million, or 29 cents per share, for the prior year
period. At year's end, cash totaled $50.15 million. $6.78
million in one-time operating expenses was taken, related
to a recently discovered module configuration problem that
creates a potential overheating risk in first-generation (Gen
1) battery packs sold to Phoenix Motor Cars, Inc. (Phoenix),
an electric vehicle manufacturer. Phoenix MotorCars and Altair
have switched to Gen 2 batteries without an blood lust. Phoenix
continues to support Altairnano. "We wholeheartedly support
Altairnano's technology and believe they provide the greatest
product available on the market today," said Dan Elliott,
Chairman and CEO of Phoenix.
|
|
Conergy
Based out of Germany
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
CEYHF
|
$22.50
|
$21.00
|
$96.14
$15.65
|
-7%
|
|
See the Wind
Power article
in vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech
Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems
integration. Also, since this is a German company that is
trading near it’s 52-week low, it may have a different outlook
than American companies that are trading at a high.
|
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$11.02
$5.89 (3.11.08)
|
$7.34
|
$14.98
$3.84
|
-33% &
+25%
|
|
EMCORE Corp (EMCORE) is a provider
of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems
for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial
solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments:
Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Missed earnings estimates
on 12.18.07. This $628 million dollar company had $178 million
in sales and $60 million in losses last year. Growth in sales
year over year is 20%. Current backlog for their CPV receivers
is $86 million, and on February 27, 2008, the company announced
$39 million in additional orders from Green and Gold Energy.
|
|
Genentech
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
DNA
|
$67.79
|
$67.79
|
$82.94
$65.35
|
--
|
|
Reported
1Q earnings on 4.10.08. Great biotech company with a huge
pipeline of DNA-based medical treatments. Could ultimately
put chemo out of business. According to Arthur D. Levinson,
Ph.D., Genentech's chairman and chief executive officer. "In
2008, we will continue to invest in the 20 new molecular entities
in clinical development and look forward to new data from
a number of potentially important line extensions, including
Rituxan for multiple sclerosis and lupus and Avastin in combination
with Tarceva for advanced non-small cell lung cancer."
U.S. product
sales of $2.2 billion, an 8 percent increase from U.S. product
sales of $2,037 million in the first quarter of 2007. The
company continues to forecast full-year 2008 non-GAAP earnings
to be in the range of $3.35 to $3.45 per share.(1) Non-GAAP
net income of $895 million, a 13 percent increase from $792
million in the first quarter of 2007(1); GAAP net income of
$790 million, a 12 percent increase from $706 million in the
first quarter of 2007.
|
|
Kinetic
Concepts, Inc.
|
No
|
KCI
|
$38.81
|
$38.81
|
$66.77
$38.33
|
--
|
|
Read the
article, "Beauty
is Skin Deep,"
in vol. 5, iss. 5. Has a new wound care system that is helpful
in preventing infections and helps wounds heal much faster.
May start seeing an opening up of one of the biggest medical
care marketplaces around if the product is used for primary
wounds. Currently it is a treatment for wounds that get infected
and have to be reopened.
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
RISK: HIGH (U.S.)
2005 Company of the Year
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$35.95
|
$34.96
|
$52.00
$28.68
|
-3%
|
|
Announced earnings on February
21, 2008. NataliePace.com’s 2005
Company of the Year.
Read vol. 1, iss. 56. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer
pill," and sales have been exploding. OSIP is a partner
of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva
as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer.
OSIP turned a profit in 2007 and
had a forward P/E of 17.10, which is pretty good for a company
with such growth.
Total worldwide net sales of Tarceva(R)
(erlotinib) for 2007, as reported by the Company's collaborators
for Tarceva, Genentech, Inc. and Roche, were approximately
$886 million representing a 36% growth in global sales compared
to the same period last year. For the three months ended December
31, 2007 worldwide Tarceva net sales were approximately $250
million representing a 32% increase over the same period last
year. The Company reported total revenues from continuing
operations of $341 million for 2007 compared to revenues of
$241 million for 2006, an increase of 41%. The Company's net
income, including results from discontinued operations, was
$66.3 million (or $1.11 per share) for 2007, compared with
a net loss of $582.2 million (or $10.10 loss per share) for
2006.
The risk to this stock is that
the majority of the revenues are currently attached to one
drug – Tarceva. In the event of a serious problem with the
drug, the company would likely be doomed.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy
Portfolio
|
No
|
PBW
|
$19.92
|
$20.78
|
$28.84
$18.16
|
+4%
|
|
Exchange Traded Fund in the green,
clean, renewable energy space.
|
|
Smith
& Nephew
London,
England
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SNN
|
$55.78
|
$55.78
|
$68.48
$54.08
|
--
|
|
Read the
article in vol.
4, issue 7. The company
is based out of London, England, and with a market cap of
$10.57 billion is a good diversification strategy for your
portfolio. Additionally, SNN has a piece of an exploding marketplace
in the hip resurfacing business, with the premiere product,
called the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing System. Reported
revenue of $911 million for the fiscal first quarter ended
March 29, a 22 percent increase compared to $744 million for
the year-ago quarter. (5.1.08)
Withdrew
185 of its BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing System implants following
a packaging error at a subcontractor on Aug. 16, 2007. Smith
& Nephew's investigation confirms that this problem is
confined to a small number of batches. A number of implants
have already been recovered in their packaging. The devices
were distributed to a number of countries, including the UK
and the US. Proactive notification is a good sign of the moral
code of the executive suite, but bad products can be Lawsuit
City if they were implanted.
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$2.00
on
5.5.08
|
$2.00
|
$10.30
$.35
|
-60%
|
|
U.S. Gold
is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that
if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t,
you will lose your investment. Very risky. However, with rising
inflation and weakening consumer confidence, investors could
turn to gold without really looking. That could mean that
U.S. Gold enjoys a push-up on the general love lust of gold,
even while the company keeps prospecting to determine if they
are actually sitting on a gold mine. Very risky play, with
potentially high rewards.
According
to an exploration update of March 26, 2008: US Gold's properties
in Nevada remain buried in snow preventing cost effective
access for drilling, however work continues on completing
new resource estimates for Tonkin, Gold Bar and Limo, which
are due to be published during the second and third quarters
of 2008. US Gold's Nevada exploration program will resume
in late spring. Meanwhile, exploration in Mexico continues
to deliver promising results from around the Magistral Mine,
the Palmarito project, and the Shakira project.
U.S. Gold
just hired Perry Ing as their new CFO. Bill Pass is retiring,
after 20 years of serving U.S. Gold. Perry holds a Bachelor
of Commerce Degree from the University of Toronto and is a
Chartered Accountant in Canada, Certified Public Accountant
in the US and Chartered Financial Analyst. He brings extensive
financial management and reporting experience in the mining
sector having previously served as Corporate Controller for
Goldcorp Inc. and as a consultant to Barrick Gold Corp. Perry
also spent six years at the mining practice of PricewaterhouseCoopers
LLP where his responsibilities included managing the audits
of large international mining companies as well as a variety
of junior mining companies.
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview
with CEO
and Chairman Rob McEwen
in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network.
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it
a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen is
one of 71 new appointments announced by Her Excellency, the
Right Honorable Michaelle Jean, Governor General of Canada.
U.S. Gold was added to the Russell 3000 on July 3, 2007.
|
|
WisdomTree
NYC, USA
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$2.95
$2.50
(on 4.11.08)
|
$2.49
|
$3.50
$2.36
|
-16% &
flat
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees,"
and vol. 5, issue 2, "International
Money Grows on WisdomTrees."
This is a well-managed company that creates "smart"
ETFs, which update holdings regularly, and trade on earnings
instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a former
SEC chairman as one of the senior advisors (high risk investment,
but a lot more credible than most OTCBB companies). The company
has had to delay its plans to re-list on NASDAQ, due to current
"market conditions and a $5 minimum stock price requirement."
According to a press release issued on Nov. 12, 2007, the
Company does not expect to re-list until the second quarter
of 2008, at the earliest. Don’t underestimate this company.
CEO Jono Steinberg is married to Maria Bartiromo and both
have strong relationships on Wall Street, as do Chairman Michael
Steinhardt and Senior Investment Strategy Advisor Professor
Jeremy J. Siegel, the famous Wizard of Wharton. Also, just
signed deals with Mellon and Dreyfus to create ETFs, and filed
an intention to create more international currency ETFs and
the first India focused ETF.
The Company
has also expanded its sales and operations functions to rapidly
commercialize into the $3 trillion retirement market, by launching
the WisdomTree 401(k) platform -- the first open-architecture
platform to combine ETFs and no-load mutual funds. Symbols
include: DEM, DRF and DGS.
|
|
World
Water & Solar
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$1.06
|
$1.06
|
$2.52
$0.53
|
--
|
|
On 3.21.08:
Dr. Frank W. Smith was promoted from COO to Chief Executive
Officer and elected to the Board of Directors of WorldWater
& Solar Technologies Corp. Former CEO Quentin T. Kelly
retires from the CEO position and will continue as non-executive
Chairman of the Board of WorldWater. Dr. Smith served as Vice
President of Strategy and Business Development at EMCORE Corporation,
where he identified target acquisitions, managed the due diligence
process, and provided strategic direction for the company.
Prior to this, he was an Operations Director at JDS Uniphase
and a Program Manager at Lockheed Martin. He was also a Manager
at MIT’s Lincoln Labs and has accumulated five patents under
his name. Smith holds a B.S. in Engineering & Applied
Science from Yale University and a Masters and Ph.D. in Electrical
Engineering & Computer Science from MIT, where he also
earned his MBA from the Sloan School of Management.
3.18.08:
Full year and 4Q 2007 results: Revenue for the fourth quarter
was $10.9 million, compared with $7.1 million reported in
the fourth quarter of 2006 and $4.4 million in the third quarter
of 2007. The increase in revenue was due primarily to the
addition of several large contracts, including the Fresno
Yosemite Airport. Some projects, however, including the Denver
International Airport, were delayed due to logistical issues
related to permitting and client finalization. For the twelve
months ended December 31, 2007, WorldWater reported revenue
of $18.5 million, compared with $17.3 million in 2006. The
net loss attributable to common shareholders for 2007 was
$14.4 million, or $(0.09) per share, compared to a loss of
$15.1 million, or $(0.11) per share, last year. In total,
the Company installed 2.6 megawatts in 2007, versus 2.4 megawatts
in 2006 and 275 kilowatts in 2005. The Company's net loss
in 4Q 2007 attributable to common shareholders for the fourth
quarter of 2007 was $5.7 million, or $(0.03) per share, compared
to a loss of $6.5 million, or $(0.04) per share, in the fourth
quarter of 2006. The 2007 fourth quarter reflects additional
investments in R&D, marketing, and operations to support
WorldWater's strategic growth initiatives.
|
Recently
Deleted: Take your profits early and often!
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price at listing
|
Price at closing
|
52-week hi and low
|
gains
|
|
Echelon
RISK: MED/HIGH
|
No
|
ELON
|
$11.23
|
$13.46
|
$32.49
$8.65
|
+20%
|
|
Read the article, "Green
San Jose Company,"
in vol. 4, issue 8. In August 2007, Governor Schwarzenegger
(CA) took Secretary General of the U.N. Ban Ki-Moon on a tour
of Echelon’s HQ in Silicon Valley the week before ELON confirmed
an order from Russia valued at $35 million. On July 10, 2007,
Echelon signed a contract with McDonald's to help it reduce
energy costs and improve efficiency. For the quarter ended
December 31, 2007, revenues were $46.9 million compared to
revenue of $13.9 million for the same period in 2006. For
the year ended December 31, 2007 revenues were $137.6 million
compared to revenues of $57.3 million for the year prior.
The GAAP net loss for the year was $14.5 million, or $0.36
cents per share compared to a net loss of $24.4 million, or
$0.62 cents per share for the prior year.
|
|
General Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$33.14
$31.70 (3.9.08)
|
$37.49
(3.24.08)
|
$41.16
$32.20
|
+13% &
+18%
|
|
See the article, "Green
San Jose Company,"
in vol. 4, issue 8. Since 2004, GE has achieved a 500 percent
increase in wind turbine production, and its wind business
revenues exceeded $4.5 billion in 2007. According to the American
Wind Energy Association, over the past two years, GE has supplied
wind turbines representing nearly half of the new wind capacity
across the United States. GE's 1.5-megawatt wind turbine is
among the most widely used machines in the global wind industry,
with more than 8,000 installed around the world.
With a market value of $331 billion,
a dividend yield of 3.67% and worldwide revenues of $173 billion,
General Electric is definitely a giant, Jabba the Hutt type
stabilizing force for your long-term "Buy My Own Island"
Fund. Big companies like GE trade within a narrow range, but
the stability they add to the portfolio, in addition to the
dividends they pay, can be delightful.
We’ve taken it off of the Hot News
list because in a volatile, down-trending market, it pays
to take profits early and often. If you bought GE for your
nest egg, then the $31.70 price is much lower than the 52-week
high and is a decent buy-and-hold acquisition.
|
|
Google (Green)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$471.18
$413.62 (3.8.08)
|
$540.34
|
$747.24
$437.00
|
+15% &
+31%
|
|
Announced 4Q results on Jan. 31,
2008. See my original article, "Google:
the People’s IPO,"
in NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 1, iss. 48. Owns YouTube.com,
one of the most popular sites on the web (which got hit with
a billion dollar lawsuit from Viacom on 3.13.07 that is still
pending). Dr. Eric Schmidt was one of our Executives
of the Year in
2007. Read the article
in vol. 4, iss. 1. The growth continues to be amazing, and
the share price continues to be amazingly volatile! The savvy
day-trader would buy on disappointment and sell on hot headlines.
The long-term investor would buy at the 52-week low and hold
to will to the kids. (Notice that Google is FINALLY highlighted
and is considered to FINALLY be a good buy right now.)
Google has a major emphasis on
renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gases. Check out
ClimateSaversComputing.org and Google’s renewable energy page.
Google is doing R&D to build 1 gigawatt of renewable energy
power, which would be sufficient to power the city of San
Francisco.
Cash - As of December 31, 2007,
cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $14.2
billion. 2007 revenues: $16.6 billion, compared to $10.6 billion
in 2006. Net income: $4.2 billion, compared to $3.1 billion
last year.
Google was deleted on April
21, 2008. Check out the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board.
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
DIVIDENDS!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
JNJ
|
$61.96
|
$67.90
|
$69.41
$59.77
|
+10%
|
|
Read the article, "Bionic
Baby Boomers,"
in vol. 4, iss. 7. Johnson & Johnson is a mega-cap corporation
with many products, and a small presence in the hip resurfacing
arena. Growth is 16% annually. Stable, dividend-paying Blue
Chip.
JNJ is listed on the Dow Jones
Sustainability World Index, the FTSE4Good Index and Our Company
has an "AAA" sustainability rating from Innovest
Strategic Advisors. Awards include: Green Power Partner of
the Year (2005), the EPA’s Climate Protection Award (2005).
9 JNJ companies based in CA received the Governor's Environmental
and Economic Leadership Award in 2005 for sustainable practices,
in particular for their renewable energy efforts and greenhouse
gas reductions.
Deleted from Hot News list on 5.5.08.
|
|
LDK Solar
|
No
|
LDK
|
$27.45
|
$32.35
|
$76.75
$19.64
|
+18%
|
|
See vol.
5, issue 4, vol.
4, issue 4 and
vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, issue 12 for
articles on solar energy and LDK Solar. This is a profitable
solar wafer manufacturing company, based out of China, whose
customers include Suntech Power Holdings and more. The international
management team is very strong, as are sales, growth and profitability.
Waiting for the announcement of full-year earnings. Tripled
top line growth over last year already, and still waiting
for the 4th quarter results.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$27.20
|
$30.46
|
$37.60
$26.60
|
+12%
|
|
World’s largest software company.
$58 billion in revenue and $17 billion in income last year.
Has $23 billion in cash and short-term investments, according
to the 2nd quarter 2008 earnings report.
|
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.62
|
$1.83
|
$2.50
$.98
|
+13%
|
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. Reported 3Q 2007 results on November
15, 2007. Who are SatCon’s customers? On June 27, 2007, SatCon
announced that its PowerGate(R) commercial grade inverters
had been installed as an integral part of Google's corporate
headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system
is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the United
States. Announced 4th quarter and full-year earnings
on 3.27.08. Revenues hit an all time high of $56.6 million.
According to David Eisenhaure, CEO, "We saw a significant
increase in our sales order backlog which grew from $35 million
at the end of 2006 to $46 million at the end of 2007, a 30%
increase, both of which were driven by our alternative and
renewable energy business." Operating losses for the year
2007 were reduced by approximately 25% to $11.0 million dollars
versus $14.6 million for 2006 (with $2 million in losses related
to currency of the US dollar vs. Canadian dollar).
Elie Nasr joined SatCon as Vice
President of Business Development for its SatCon Power Systems
division on February 19, 2008. Mr. Nasr has relationships
from his past jobs at Siemens and General Electric, to name
two. Appears to be a great hire. Electrical engineering degree,
with a MBA in finance.
Secured $10 million credit line
at Silicon Valley Bank. "This line of credit, along with our
recent infusion of capital from Rockport Capital Partners
and NGP Energy Technology Partners, allows us to focus on
the growth of the business," said David Eisenhaure, CEO
of SatCon.
|
|
SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green
& Chinese Co. ADR)
RISK: LOW
2007 Company of the Year
Mainland China
|
No
|
STP
|
$30.70
|
$41.55
|
$90.00
$31.41
|
+35%
|
|
See vol. 4, issue 1 for our Company
of the Year article,
which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Also, check out vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, issue 12 for
our articles on solar energy. On February 21, 2007, Suntech’s
CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable on Climate Change
which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University
in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable brings together
more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders from all regions
of the world. Dr. Shi was named one of TIME magazine's 2007
"Heroes of the Environment," on October 22, 2007, and the
share price has been a rocket ship ever since. Suntech will
supply solar modules with an aggregate output of 23.2MW to
Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic Grid Connection
Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the world’s largest
solar power plant. SunTech is also the official solar provider
of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that it will enjoy
a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. Dr. Shi is one of our
Executives
of the Year in 2007. Read the article in vol. 4, iss.
1. In June 2007, Suntech signed a 10 year supply deal for
polysilicon from Hawaii's Hoku Scientific. Institutional holdings
of STP increased significantly on November 22, 2007. Announced
earnings on 2.20.08.
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, chairman and
CEO of Suntech: "Through the long term supply of silicon at
prices well below today's spot-market rates, Hoku will play
a key role in our plan to produce grid parity solar products.
Hoku's polysilicon supply will also enable Suntech to continuously
expand its production capacity and deliver the means to generate
clean, renewable energy to a growing proportion of the world's
population."
|
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$31.08
|
$38.00
|
$73.06
$29.00
|
+22%
|
|
See vol.
5, issue 4, vol.
4, issue 4 and
vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, issue 12 for
articles on solar energy and Trina Solar. This is a profitable
solar energy company, based out of China. The international
management team is very strong, as are sales, growth and profitability.
Waiting for the announcement of full-year earnings.
|
|
World Water & Solar
VERY HIGH RISK
Trading off the boards
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$1.01
|
$1.23
|
$2.52
$.39
|
+22%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
Green
Hits the Mainstream,
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on
solar energy. This is a very high-risk company in the solar-energy/water
purification sector. CEO Quentin Kelly was invited by Governor
Schwarzenegger to join him on the Governor’s tour of Canada,
during the California-Canada Conference on Clean Technologies
in Vancouver in 2007. Announced on August 9, 2007 that they
would be delivering 10 Mobile MaxPure units for use in Darfur,
Sudan.
New CEO was named on 3.21.08. Chairman
Quentin Kelly continues as non-executive Board chairman. Dr.
Frank W. Smith has been promoted from COO to Chief Executive
Officer and elected to the Board of Directors of WorldWater
& Solar Technologies Corp. Dr. Smith served as Vice President
of Strategy and Business Development at EMCORE Corporation.
Annual results on 3.18.08: For
the twelve months ended December 31, 2007, WorldWater reported
revenue of $18.5 million, compared with $17.3 million in 2006.
Gross profit for the year was $1.7 million, versus $2.7 million
in 2006. The net loss attributable to common shareholders
for 2007 was $14.4 million, or $(0.09) per share, compared
to a loss of $15.1 million, or $(0.11) per share, last year.
In total, the Company installed 2.6 megawatts in 2007, versus
2.4 megawatts in 2006 and 275 kilowatts in 2005.
"2007 was, as expected, a pivotal
year for WorldWater & Solar Technologies," said Chairman
Quentin T. Kelly. "We recorded our highest revenue ever -
$18.5 million - and won some very large contracts, including
innovative solar installations for the Denver International
Airport and Fresno Yosemite Airport. In addition, we expanded
our offices, hired critical staff, and signed letters of intent
for a number of next-generation solar farms in Europe.
|
|
Zoltec
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
ZOLT
|
$22.88
|
$20.97 (3.8.08)
$26.33
|
$51.77
$18.34
|
+15% &
+26%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide,"
in vol. 4, iss. 12. Annual report was issued on 12.7.07. $151
million in annual sales in 2007, versus $92 million in 2006.
This is a huge growth market. They manufacture carbon fibers
which are used in a range of commercial products, including
wind turbines. This is A-plus interest. Waiting for the price
point to settle in.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
None.
Recent
Deletions:
Apple
Computer (AAPL) (moved to the Cooling Off List)
Genentech
(DNA) (moved to the Hot List)
Smith
& Nephew (SNN) (moved to the Hot List)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
5.05.08
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
American Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$19.43
|
$25.57
|
$32.44
$10.05
|
+32%
|
|
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, iss.
12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI),
Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature
Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more
energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables
electric utilities to replace multiple conventional copper
cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground
real estate available for other uses – including future power
upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar
annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in
the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells.
American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $180 million,
with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC
expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to
50% of sales in fiscal year 2007. Looking to add back to the
Hot News List at a better price point.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$72.95
|
$108.79
$56.19
|
+11%
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2
for details on CIBC’s appeal. CIBC, like all of the financial
services industry, will continue to see hard times into 2008.
This is a price that might be attractive for your long-term
portfolio. Don’t expect wild gains in the short term with
this company, and there could be more losses before you’ll
see the upside. Again, the price is attractive if you’re looking
at a 7-year plus horizon, not if you’re looking to post great
gains in the next 12 months.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
C
|
$26.05
|
$25.75
|
$57.00
$17.99
|
-1%
|
|
Refer to the M&A
Mania article
in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup’s appeal. Citigroup,
like all of the financial services industry, will continue
to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that might be
attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect wild
gains in the short term with this company, and there could
be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again, the price
is attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus horizon,
not if you’re looking to post great gains in the next 12 months.
Citigroup announced on May 10,
2007, that Citigroup China would roll-out two new investment
products -- Structured Investment Accounts -- for the Chinese
consumer that would allow him/her to invest in equities or
currencies, with a principal protection feature. Just a few
years ago, all banks in China were state-owned enterprises.
Citigroup was the first mover in the Chinese consumer equity
marketplace. Purchased AkBank (in Turkey) on 1.09.07. Akbank
currently has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a premier,
full-service retail, commercial, corporate and private bank
in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6 billion
and a deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the world’s third
largest bank by assets and the nation’s largest financial
institution. Citigroup acquired servicing rights for $45 billion
worth of loans formerly held in ACC’s Ameriquest company.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Citigroup announced
on November 3, 2007, that Charles Prince, Chairman and CEO,
will leave the company. Robert Rubin has been named Chairman
of the Board. Sir Win Bischoff has been named acting Chief
Executive Officer.
|
|
Eastern Europe -- U.S. Global Investors
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$41.49
|
$44.88
|
$59.54
$23.02
|
+6%
|
|
Vanguard seems to be in the right
countries, and within those countries, in the right growing
sectors. See vol.
2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference. We’re keeping this on the list
because as investors rebalance and get spooked by the US markets,
their brokers may put them into international funds, like
EUROX. Will monitor closely over the next few weeks.
|
|
eBay
RISK: LOW
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$28.07
|
$30.86
|
$40.73
$25.64
|
+10%
|
|
Announced earnings on 1.23.2008.
See the articles, "eBay’s
Skype Outpaces News Corp’s MySpace," in volume
3, issue 9, "Executives
of the Year" in January 2007, which featured
CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss. 1). Lots of management changes.
Skype has a new CEO effective February 25, 2008. John Silverman
(not related to the YouTube star, Sarah), the former CEO of
Shopping.com, will head up Skype as CEO. Skype has more than
276 million registered users around the world. In Q4 2007,
it posted total revenues of $115 million, an increase of 76
percent over the prior year, while delivering a fourth consecutive
quarter of segment profitability. Meg Whitman is retiring
on March 31, 2008, and will be replaced by John Donahoe. John
was previously President of eBay marketplaces, where he oversaw
strategic acquisitions of Shopping.com and StubHub. Revenues
and profits doubled while he was president of his division.
While eBay is not keeping this a secret, the news is certainly
not making headlines – yet. Let’s wait and see what happens
on March 31, 2008, when the woman who grew eBay into the powerhouse
it currently is steps down.
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$9.37
|
$7.94
|
$14.55
$2.52
|
-15%
|
|
Announces full year and 4Q earnings
May 13, 2008 at 8:00 a.m. Since the company focus shifted
from hydrogen fuel cell to silicon manufacturing in 2007,
don’t expect record results. The new silicon manufacturing
facility is still in the process of being built.
Read "Solar
Giants
Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 10. Contracted to build
a polysilicon facility in Idaho and supply Suntech, Sanyo
and Solar-Fabrik. Hoku Materials is builing a polysilicon
production facility capable of producing up to 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. Hoku Materials
estimates the total cost to construct and equip the polysilicon
facility with an annual capacity of 2,500 metric tons will
be approximately $300 million and that the first delivery
will occur in 2009. HOKU announced on 2.25.08 that the company
is bringing in $25 million through the private placement and
issuance of 2,893,520 shares of common stock (appx. $8.64
share). $20 million of the placement is coming through a subsidiary
of Suntech.
"This equity financing is a significant
step forward to obtain our larger debt financing for the construction
and procurement of our planned polysilicon plant in Pocatello,
Idaho, as we believe that the proceeds from this offering,
plus our other cash commitments to the construction and procurement
of the polysilicon plant, will satisfy the Merrill Lynch requirement
that we contribute up to $35 million in equity towards the
project prior to completing our debt financing," said Dustin
Shindo, chairman and CEO of Hoku Scientific. "We are especially
pleased that one of our key polysilicon customers, Suntech,
has made this investment in our company, as it is a sign of
their confidence in our business."
In June 2007, Suntech entered into
a supply agreement with Hoku Materials, Inc., a wholly owned
subsidiary of Hoku Scientific, to purchase up to $678 million
of polysilicon from Hoku Materials over a ten year period,
with the first shipment scheduled for delivery in 2009.
|
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$20.27
|
$23.25
|
$27.99
$16.84
|
+15%
|
|
See "Apple
Chips," article
in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices
in products and price.
Intel is a great blue chip. However,
the chip business is highly competitive and the business spending
is expected to moderate during the next year. Additionally,
traditionally the 1st quarter is a lower performing
quarter than the 4th. Wait and see what happens
to the share price!
Green: Intel and Google launched
ClimateSaversComputing.org
in 2007, with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption
reduction by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partners
to come on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices
and Microsoft!
|
|
International Rectifier
|
No
|
IRF
|
$26.65
|
$22.32
|
$44.36
$25.00
|
-16%
|
|
International Rectifier Corporation
is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of power management
product devices, which use power semiconductors. The Company's
products are used in a variety of end applications, including
computers, communications networking, consumer electronics,
energy-efficient appliances, lighting, satellites, launch
vehicles, aircraft and automotive diesel injection. The good
news is that the audit committee is doing it’s job. The bad
news is that means there will be some adjustments to prior
earnings reports and a late filing for the current report.
According to a Notification to File Late document which was
filed with the SEC on February 11, 2008, "the Audit Committee
of the Company’s Board of Directors has determined that the
Company’s financial statements for its fiscal quarters ended
September 30, 2003 through December 31, 2006 and for its fiscal
years ended June 30, 2004 through June 30, 2006 should not
be relied upon." Uh oh. Looks like the problems are mostly
centered in a Japan subsidiary.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
WFR
|
$76.28
|
$63.89
|
$96.08
$48.88
|
-16%
|
|
4Q earnings conference call
on 1.24.08 at 5:30 p.m. ET. MEMC was added to the S&P
500 in August of 2007. Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and
MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers
accordingly. Volatile marketplace. Great company. Looking
to reposition on the Hot News list at a more attractive price.
With more silicon manufacturing companies coming online this
year and next, MEMC will likely have downward pressure on
its ability to charge a premium for silicon. Look for this
to start impacting the top line and profit margins in the
quarters to come.
|
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$26.38
|
$17.86
|
$41.33
$16.01
|
-32%
|
|
Netgear announced earnings on February
13, 2008. Net income came in below 2006, $12.5 million in
2007 versus $13.4 million in 2006. With the crushing impactthat
the subprime crisis has had on the American economy (and thus
the consumer’s buying power), I would be wary about Netgear’s
earnings reports in the coming quarters, since the company’s
many products are reliant upon the consumer electronics industry.
Watch Natalie
Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com
Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo
(from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the
Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06),
NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear’s Skype
phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone
is available online. It’s a great product that allows you
to connect to Skype and call anyone worldwide anywhere there
is a WiFi signal.
Netgear’s products are amazing.
The Skype Wi-Fi phone may just be ramping up for sales. (I
love mine.) However, the 4th quarter results were
less than stellar in terms of growth, inventory turnover and
operating margins. CEO/Chairman Patrick Lo said that had a
lot to do with air freight charges. Waiting to see what the
next earnings report reveals in terms of trends.
|
|
PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio
|
No
|
PZD
|
$33.63
|
$33.63
|
$36.93
$25.00
|
--
|
|
The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio
(Fund) tracks the Cleantech Index™ (ticker: CTIUS),
which is designed to track the leading cleantech companies,
from a broad range of industry sectors, that offer the best
investment returns. 'Cleantech' companies derive the majority
of their business form knowledge-based products or services
that improve productivity and/or product performance while
reducing total costs, energy and resource consumption, pollution,
toxicity, etc.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$76.00
|
$78.00
$23.48
|
+63%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and
vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr.
Charles Zhang in
an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com
Video Network. Sohu
was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service
(ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Don’t get sucked
into buying at high P/Es in a declining world marketplace
– even for excellent companies, like Sohu. Sohu should have
a great story through the Beijing Olympics and the quarter
beyond, but thereafter, the advertising marketplace may wane.
Don’t buy high, and always be poised to take profits when
the share price has rocketed on the news.
|
|
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$32.88
|
$34.54
|
$40.00
$12.00
|
+5%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and
vol.
2, issue 8 for
articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global
with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU
that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France.
International investing in the right sectors and countries
pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its
category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating
on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund
back in August of 2005!)
|
|
UQM Technologies
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
UQM
|
$2.33
|
$1.64
|
$5.48
$1.19
|
-30%
|
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. UQM Technologies, Inc. is a developer
and manufacturer of power dense, high efficiency electric
motors, generators and power electronic controllers for the
automotive, aerospace, medical, military and industrial markets.
A major emphasis of the Company is developing products for
the alternative energy technologies sector including propulsion
systems for electric, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric
and fuel cell electric vehicles, under-the-hood power accessories
and other vehicle auxiliaries and distributed power generation
applications. On November 5, 2007, received a $1,046,500 cost-share
contract from the California Energy Commission's Public Interest
Energy Research Program and the U.S. Department of Energy's
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop an
advanced grid-connect inverter under its Advanced Power Electronics
Interface (APEI) Initiative. UQM’s share was $439,000 (42%).
Announced 3Q earnings on 1.30.08:
Continuing operations for the third quarter resulted in a
loss of $1,322,849 or $0.05 per common share on total revenue
of $1,714,858 versus a loss from continuing operations of
$818,297 or $0.03 per common share on total revenue of $1,726,526
for the third quarter last year. 4th quarter and
full-year results should be reported in the coming month or
two. Based upon 3rd quarter’s performance, I wouldn’t
expect outstanding results.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Hi-Yield
ETF
|
No
|
DEM
|
$53.08
|
$56.14
|
$57.73
$40.91
|
+6%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets ETF
|
No
|
DGS
|
$44.66
|
$46.35
|
$52.71
$39.89
|
+4%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree International ETF
|
No
|
DRF
|
$23.25
|
$25.85
|
$31.49
$22.00
|
+11%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, iss. 2. Most holdings are in international finance,
including HSBC, Banco Santander, Australia, Argentina, Scotland
and Lloyds of London.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share
Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Apple
Computer (AAPL)
Boston
Properties (BXP)
Google
(GOOG)
Macerich
(MAC)
Medicis
(MRX)
Mentor
(MNT)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 5.05.08
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$184.73
|
$184.73
|
$202.96
$100.01
|
--
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
With a
weaker dollar, high gas, record food costs and more hard hits
on the American wallet, more people may be tempted to take
the easy way out with regard to music and movies – illegal
downloads, which are still a huge problem in the industry.
|
|
Boston
Properties
|
No
|
BXP
|
$86.91
$102.37
(5.05.08)
|
$102.37
|
$133.02
$79.88
|
+18%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, issue 9 in the
REITs article. Boston Properties looked great prior to 2007.
With a pullback in profits and GDP growth, corporate spending
and hiring should abate. The office building REITs should
begin to come under pressure in 2008, just as they did in
the 2000-2002 recession. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital
spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs
of the business economy, which are the customers of Boston
Properties. Released 1Q 2008 financial results on April 29,
2008.
|
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$34.30
|
$28.29
|
$70.57
$18.25
|
-17.5%
|
|
Fannie Mae was deleted from the
Cooling Off list on 2.11.08, after posting losses of –50%
and -56%. So, why keep the company on this chart? Because
even though the federal government is working fast and furiously
on a bailout package, Fannie Mae could be one of the hardest
hit corporations in the U.S. by the subprime crisis. It is
not an obvious put. At the same time, it could pay to know
what your mutual funds are invested in because Fannie Mae
has been a very popular holding in many of the most popular
mutual funds. In volatile markets with lots of downward pressure,
it pays to take profits early and often and to trim back your
exposure on the most vulnerable industries (which is why we
took our profits before the bailout announcement).
|
|
Google
|
Yes
|
GOOG
|
$594.90
|
$594.90
|
$747.24
$412.11
|
--
|
|
Google
is such a popular stock that this could be a case of everyone
spending their tax refunds to buy Google. However, it is also
sporting a high P/E of 40 in a marketplace that has been allowing
the Google price to fall as low as $412. Google is a long
term hold in your portfolio, but for traders, the volatility
is also a chance to make short term gains – even on the short
end of the stick.
|
|
KB Home
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$25.07
|
$48.67
$15.76
|
-57.5%
|
|
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under
pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating
options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from vol.
2, issue 5. In
May 2005, we called REITs
a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high
home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of
contracts and rising inventory.
|
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$60.02
$74.81
(5.5.08)
|
$74.81
|
$98.10
$59.75
|
+25%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, issue 9 in the
REITs article. We first featured Macerich in May of 2003,
when it was trading at $33/share. In September, when Macerich
was trading at $81.22, the signs were pointing toward a cooling
off in retail shopping center REITs, so we removed the company
from our Hot News list (meaning that we’re capping the performance
at 150% gains). Since then, the share price has fallen 22%.
With a pullback in profits and GDP growth, consumer spending
should abate and the pressures on inflation could mount. The
mall REITs should begin to come under pressure in 2008, just
as they did in the 2000-2002 recession. Will be monitoring
cash flow, capital spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth,
unemployment, price of oil and other signs of the consumer
economy, who are ultimately the customers of Macerich. They
missed earnings estimates in Nov. 2007, and announced earnings
on 2.12.08. For the year ended December 31, 2007, net income
available to common stockholders was $71.7 million or $1.00
per common share-diluted compared to $228.0 million or $3.19
per share-diluted for 2006. Net income available to common
stockholders for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 was $38.4
million or $.53 per share-diluted compared to $147.9 million
or $1.98 per share-diluted for the quarter ended December
31, 2006.
Annual
Meeting of Stockholders to be held on Thursday, May 29, 2008
at 10:00 a.m. local time at The Fairmont Miramar Hotel, 101
Wilshire Boulevard, Santa Monica, California.
|
|
Mentor
Corporation
|
No
|
MNT
|
$28.68
|
$28.68
|
$48.80
$23.95
|
--
|
|
See the
article "Beauty
is Only Skin Deep" in the May 2008 ezine, vol. 5,
iss. 5, when we warned that breast implant sales tend to droop
during recessions.
|
|
Medicis
|
No
|
MRX
|
$20.30
|
$20.30
|
$34.35
$18.51
|
--
|
|
See the
article "Beauty
is Only Skin Deep" in the May 2008 ezine, vol. 5,
iss. 5, when we warned that elective cosmetic surgery procedures
tend to wane during recessions. Medicis has other new costs
to contend with and a delay in their Botox® type product,
which hasn’t yet been cleared by the FDA.
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|
Novastar Financial
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
NFI
|
$28.04 &
$36.53 (6.15.07)
|
$1.94
|
$526.08
$1.12
|
-93% &
-95%
|
|
See the article (Sub)
Prime Time
in
the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 5, when we warned everyone
should get out of subprime mortgage lenders. On July 27, 2007,
Novastar announced a reverse stock split. As a result of the
reverse stock split, every four shares of common stock were
changed into one share of common stock. Scott Hartman, the
company's chairman and chief executive officer, Chief Financial
Officer Gregory Metz and General Counsel Jeff Ayers are leaving
the company, effective Jan. 3, 2008. Lance Anderson, the current
chief operating officer and president, was elected by the
board to replace Hartman. In danger of being delisted by the
NYSE due to the share price falling beneath $5.00/share. Has
laid off 100s of employees, sold off most of its subprime
loans and closed doors on most of its offices. What’s left
to do? The paperwork? Don’t be fooled. Lance Anderson may
be the only guy on the planet who would take this job. The
former CEO and Chairman is reportedly getting $2.1 million
in cash for leaving, according to BizJournal.
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|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$24.83
|
$35.64
$18.85
|
-34%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from vol.
2, issue 5 in
2005, when we first reported on REITs
as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities action
complaint (but not a confirmed investigation), from June 2007,
alleging that Toll Brothers "and one or more members
of its senior management, violated federal securities laws
by issuing various materially false and misleading statements
that had the effect of artificially inflating the market price
of the Company's securities and causing Class members to overpay
for the securities." According to the annual earnings
report filed in Dec. 2007, net income had dropped to just
$36 million, from $687 million in 2006. Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer Robert Toll said, "By many measures, fiscal
2007 was the most challenging of the 40 years that Toll Brothers
has been in business. 1974 was perhaps rougher, but the difficult
times only lasted one year."
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$33.18
|
$31.15
|
$37.99
$25.79
|
-6%
|
|
See "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression," in vol. 4, iss. 12.
4Q & full-year earnings report was issued on 1.16.08:
$39.4 billion in revenue and net income of $8.06 billion.
The Wells Fargo January 2009 put with a strike price of $22.50
was priced at $1.50 on 3.24.08. On 3.31.08, it was trading
for $2.15, for a gain of 43%.
|
Recently
Deleted:
Fannie
Mae on 2.11.08
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
$68.75
(5.25.07)
|
$30.45
|
$70.57
$26.38
|
-50% &
-56%
|
|
Spent $1 billion on accounting
fees related to the accounting scandal. Investors are still
in to the tune of $58.44 billion…. Are you? Better check your
mutual funds. The recent subprime lending fallout doesn’t
bode well for FNM. According to the AP, "Maintaining
strong asset quality position will be a challenge for Fannie
Mae, given the recent weakening of housing values from the
very strong levels seen over the last few years." Standard
and Poor’s has a negative outlook on Fannie Mae. December
14 annual meeting for shareholders will be held at 10:00 a.m.,
EST, at the Hilton Washington in Washington DC. Fannie Mae
is chartered, but not funded or guaranteed, by the U.S. government.
It’s funded completely with private capital, and is one of
the top holdings in some of the most popular mutual funds,
i.e. you might own it. 3rd quarter net income loss
was $1.5 billion. FNM expects that the housing crunch and
credit tightening will continue to adversely impact their
financial results in 2007 and 2008, according to the 3rd
quarter earnings report.
|
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect
a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance
of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk
tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of
your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should
never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
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NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Don’t
miss Pangea Day on May 10th, a global event harnessing
the power of film to inspire and compel social change.
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, retreats, educational opportunities,
cultural events, galas, market events and online chats with executives
and VIPs. Stay plugged in! Visit our calendar section often.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
5th
Annual Inspiration Awards, Beverly Hills, CA
Friday,
May 9th, 2008
12:00PM
through 2:30PM PT
Each
year, Step Up Women's Network rolls out the red carpet & gathers
700 members, celebrity supporters, industry elite, & community
insiders to honor 3 women who embody the spirit of Step Up through
their philanthropic impact in the lives of women & girls.
 |
2006
TED Prize winner Jehane Noujaim
Director of Control Room
Pangea Day founder |
Pangea
Day
Saturday,
May 10th, 2008
A
global film event harnessing the power of film to inspire and
compel social change. |
Alternative
Fuels & Vehicles Conference, Las Vegas, NV
Sunday,
May 11th, 2008
14th
annual conference will run from May 11-14, 2008 in Las Vegas, NV.
Waste Management, UPS, the United States Postal Service, the City
of Dallas and Wal-Mart all know that green is gold. 200 experts
discuss economics, market opportunities, technology,
Home
Design Seminar, New York
Tuesday,
May 13th, 2008
6:30PM
through 8:30PM ET
This
seminar features information from Acorn Homes, Deck House and Dwell
Homes by Empyrean to help you transform your land into a custom
home perfectly suited for your location and lifestyle.
Get
Rich and Green Retreat 102 with Natalie Pace, Santa Monica, CA
Wednesday,
May 14th, 2008
How
would you live if you had all the money in the world? Learn green
investing, sustainable living and play the billionaire game with
Natalie Pace, #1 stock picker and the most trusted name in financial
news.
Home
Design Open House, Acton, MA
Thursday,
May 15th, 2008
4:00PM
through 8:00PM ET
A
collaborative open house with presentation, tours and reception.
Featuring Empyrean International and Design New England.
Puccini's
Tosca at the Los Angeles Opera
Saturday,
May 17th, 2008
7:00PM
through 11:00PM PT
Political
power and its abuse intensify the tragic love triangle between the
fiery diva Floria Tosca, the handsome painter Mario Cavaradossi,
and the sadistic police chief Baron Scarpia.
Premium
Subscriber Online Chat with Natalie Pace
Wednesday,
May 21st, 2008
8:45AM
through 9:30AM PT
Hot
industries, like solar energy, and sink-holes, like the financials.
What's the best strategy for the next few months? Learn trading
tips for turbulent times, summer doldrums and prep for the Back
to School Stock Sales.
21
Leaders Gala, NYC
Wednesday,
May 21st, 2008
6:00PM
through 10:00PM
Women's
eNews honors their 2008 21 Leaders for the 21st Century, an awe-inspiring
reader-nominated list, with each honoree making news, often at great
personal risk. Hosted by Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia!
Mid-Month
Update: Hot News on Cool Stocks
Monday,
May 26th, 2008
12:00PM
through 5:00PM PT
The
mid-month update of the hot news on cool stocks report will be published
on or before 5:00 p.m. PT. Check online before noon, just in case
we get it out early!
GDP
1Q 2008 report (advance)
Thursday,
May 29th, 2008
8:30AM
ET
The
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) releases
its advance report on GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2008.
Fridays
Off the 405, The Getty Center, LA, CA
Friday,
May 30th, 2008
6:00PM
through 9:00PM PT
A
once-a-month after-work event mixing art and entertainment where
you can socialize, tour the galleries, and revel in the end of the
workweek in a casual, spontaneous atmosphere. All Fridays Off the
405 feature live music and a cash bar.
Wind
Power 2008 Conference: Houston, TX
Sunday,
June 1st, 2008
8:00AM
through 8:00PM CT
June
1-4, 2008. 3 days of conference sessions, an interactive tradeshow
of wind energy products and services, and numerous networking opportunities.
New
NataliePace.com Ezine!
Wednesday,
June 4th, 2008
1:00PM
through 7:00PM PT
The
new June 2008 ezine will be posted between 9 a.m. ET and 8 p.m.
PT. Check back early and often so that you don't miss it!
Business
Goes Green Expo: San Jose, CA
Friday,
June 6th, 2008
This
business summit will show how going green is good for the bottom
line!
Puccini's
La Rondine
Saturday,
June 7th, 2008
7:00PM
through 11:00PM PT
LA
Opera celebrates Puccini's 150th Anniversary and the final performances
of the season! Don't miss opera at its finest with one of the most
respected composers in this field.
Business
Goes Green Expo: Las Vegas, NV
Thursday,
June 19th, 2008
Climate
change, renewable resources, carbon footprint, energy consumption,
water conservation, responsible investing, global supply chain,
and alternative fuels -- terms that once were used only by environmental
activists are now considered essential to growth.
Federal
Open Market Committee Meeting
Tuesday,
June 24th, 2008 and Wednesday, June 25th, 2008
8:00AM
through 5:00PM ET
The
Federal Reserve Board governors meet to determine whether inflation
is more of a factor than the housing pullback and subprime defaults.
Will the Feds keep the rate where it is, raise it or lower it?
Fridays
Off the 405, The Getty Center, LA, CA
Friday,
June 27th, 2008
6:00PM
through 9:00PM PT
A
once-a-month after-work event mixing art and entertainment where
you can socialize, tour the galleries, and revel in the end of the
workweek in a casual, spontaneous atmosphere. All Fridays Off the
405 feature live music and a cash bar.
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
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or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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