TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.6 Issue 5 May1st, 2009
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
" While many stakeholders made sacrifices and worked constructively
in this process, some did not. In particular, a group of investment
firms and hedge funds failed to accept reasonable offers to settle
on their debt. In order to effectuate this alliance without rewarding
those who refused to sacrifice, the U.S. government will stand
behind Chrysler's efforts to use our bankruptcy code to clear
away remaining obligations and emerge stronger and more competitive."
From The Obama Administration Auto Restructuring Initiative
Chrysler-Fiat Alliance, on April 30, 2009
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Grading
Obama and the Feds on their First 100 Days in Office.
A
Conversation with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Dr. Gary Becker.
Should
the Administration regulate the fees that credit card companies
can charge? Should they bail out the auto industry? Should they
raise capital gains taxes and tax the rich? The world’s leading
economist weighs in on this and more…
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Aboard
Air Force One en route to Trinidad and Tobago, President Obama
works on his opening remarks to the Summit of the Americas with
speechwriter Adam Frankel on April 17, 2009.
Photo: White House photo by Pete Souza. |
April 28, 2009.
It is the second day of the Milken Global Conference, where 3000
VIP attendees gather to hear 400 CEOs, government policy makers,
celebrities and money managers discuss capital solutions for health
care, education, the financial crisis, real estate, terrorism, philanthropy,
clean energy, infrastructure, the democratization of capital, the
preservation of resources and more. But there is just one man that
I’m chasing down. He’s hot on the markets, having been right on
the money of exactly when the recessions and recoveries would begin
and end over the last decade. He keynotes at least two lunch panels
every year, since the inception of the Milken Global Conference
twelve years ago.
He’s the main
man here, and you’d think I was trying to monopolize Zac Efron,
as bystanders and fans elbow me out of the way to grab at his hands
and shove their face into his, while thanking him profusely (and
sometimes even tearfully) for sharing his wisdom with them.
What characteristic
could an economist have that would possibly make someone weep? While
Dr. Gary Becker is clearly a free markets proponent, like so many
economists before him, he is also the man who coined the term "human
capital," providing scientific proof of the obvious, that when
you educate your citizens and keep them healthy, they work smarter
and harder. He brought humanity into the boardroom and his scientific
research is the reason that corporations, like Google and others,
place a priority on keeping their staff fat and happy. (Google is
known for the Google 15 – the amount of weight workers gain as a
result of free, healthy food.)
Because of Dr.
Gary Becker’s contributions, economists and politicians can no longer
talk about prosperity in the U.S. without discussing K-12 education
reform. We cannot talk about the fiscal health of a nation without
discussing the physical health of the individuals. And this focus
on the human side of the equation is, well, touching, and it is
with great effort that Dr. Becker and I thread our way through outstretched
hands toward the Associates Room, where I am determined to have
him all to myself for a twenty minute interview (if I’m lucky enough
not to get interrupted by his colleague/fans there).
Dr. Gary Becker
is well beyond retirement age, but his mind is more agile than anyone
at the conference, young or old. His experience and wisdom on a
wide range of subjects dwarf his colleagues on any panel. He teaches
both sociology and economics at the University of Chicago, and continues
to be a voracious researcher, typically with the most cutting edge
statistics at hand -- such as the fact that more women graduate
from college these days than men. (That fact silenced the ballroom
of the mostly middle-aged, grey-haired, Caucasian men in attendance
at the 2009 Milken Global Conference as adeptly as if he’d thrown
a cobra in the crowd.)
Dr. Becker is,
without question, the alpha dog of economics, to whom all of the
other economists and pundits submit their ideology, hoping for a
nod of approval. Sometimes, they get a supercilious glance and dismissive
rebuttal, as happened a few years back when Nobel prize winning
economist Myron Scholes suggested that having 90% bonds and 10%
options in the average investors’ portfolio was a sound strategy.
Other times, he appears to be channeling Jon Stewart, as he makes
jokes about the naked Nobel Laureate who thinks he should be able
to deduct his business suits from his taxes.
Today, he settles
back into the role of teacher, however. Calm, patient and happy
to explain the stock market losses that have shocked, saddened,
numbed and confounded Americans, many of who now fear for their
future. Never has an entire nation’s mind been on one question –
"When will we start to recover?" And never has there been
a person more qualified to give us guidance on the answer.
Fortunately,
I don’t have to climb to the top of Delphi to gain access to the
Oracle, though the price of admission to the conference is steep.
(So start saving for next year’s Milken Global Conference now. It’s
worth it.)
Interview
with Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Prize winning economist (1992), University
Professor, Department of Economics and Sociology Professor, Graduate
School of Business, The University of Chicago.
Natalie Pace:
Well, here is the question on everyone’s mind. When can we start
enjoying life again (i.e. when does GDP growth return)?
Dr. Gary Becker
-- These are hard things to predict and I would be fooling you if
I thought I knew with any certainty. But I believe that things will
start coming back at the end of 2009 or the early part of 2010 --
maybe slowly at first. But I think we’ll stop going down sometime
at the end of this year. It might be a little earlier, but that
would be my forecast.
Is productivity
some sort of a guide or signal that things are improving?
During recessions,
productivity doesn’t look very good. The reason for that is that
a lot of companies will have excess capital capacity and they keep
workers on who are not very productive. They want to hold onto them
for when things turn around. When you have excess physical capacity
and excess labor, the output to deployment of capital and labor
doesn’t look very good. I think
productivity will resume once we have a vigorous upswing.
So productivity
is not the leading indicator that we’re moving out of the recession.
However, doesn’t productivity, at least partially, fuel a robust
and vigorous upswing, and if so, how can we spark workers, which
are really the engine of the company, to get moving?
No, productivity
is not the leading indicator, but it’s powerfully related to two
factors in the business cycles. When things are bad, productivity
doesn’t do well. When things are good, it does better. This points
to the incentives companies have to motivate individuals to innovate.
Hopefully those incentives will not be adversely affected by any
policies that come into place.
You’re talking
about government policies, right?
That’s my concern.
When you start taxing capital and investors a lot, you start to
discourage innovation. That’s what you have to be careful of. On
the other hand, the Administration is putting a lot of money into
basic research, and that should be good for the most part.
I’ve been
so focused on the financial crisis, toxic assets, market losses,
foreclosures, the auto industry meltdown and cracked nest eggs that
I must have missed all the talk about raising taxes. What’s being
discussed? Please don’t tell me they are eliminating that beautiful
15% tax on long-term capital gains.
They are talking
about raising it above the 15%, and they are also talking about
taxing higher incomes and about raising the corporate income tax.
Those are all counterproductive, particularly during these times,
when you need to encourage investment and encourage business rather
than discourage it.
What is the
correlation between taxation and business growth?
A study done
by Nobel Prize winning economist Edward C. Prescott across different
countries showed that European countries had slower growth when
they taxed at higher rates. There is a significant correlation.
I don’t know the exact number, but it is significant enough to be
worried about.
Low taxation
certainly seemed to play into the amazing growth of Estonia and
some of the Eastern European countries in this decade.
European
GDP Growth Rate Compared to Tax Rate
|
Country
|
GDP
Growth Rate
|
Tax
Rate
|
Freedom
Ranking
|
|
Estonia
|
11.2
percent
|
Flat
21%
|
13
|
|
The
Czech Republic
|
6.4
percent
|
Flat
15% for individuals; 21% for corporations.
|
37
|
|
France
|
2 percent
|
40%
top personal; 34% corporate.
|
64
|
|
Germany
|
2.9
percent
|
47.5%
personal; 33% corporate; 25% on investments.
|
25
|
Source: 2009
Index of Economic Freedom
Dr. Becker:
Yeah, they went to flat tax, and there are about 15 or so countries
in the world using flat tax, rather than a constantly fluctuating
rate of income. When you do that you end up with a low rate of taxation,
maybe 15%. I think we should go to a flat tax. We would be taxing
about 20-25%. Compared to what we will be doing, that seems to be
fairly moderate.
And put all
the accountants to work on solar energy.
Right.
The markets
today are lower than they were a decade ago. The prediction for
growth, once this contraction ends, is for relatively slow growth.
Are you at all concerned that we could be entering Japan-like stagnation?
It’s a risk,
if we follow bad policy. If we follow good policy, I think it’s
a relatively small risk that we’ll follow Japan. The Feds took a
very vigorous response to this recession. The Japanese hesitated
for many years before they did anything. Japan thought they could
solve the problem through fiscal stimulus. They ran large budget
deficits. The ratio of debt to GDP went from about 0.5% to 1.5%
over that decade. I hope we’ll take much less of a fiscal stimulus
approach. I’m not a big fan that you can stimulate much fiscally.
Is there
anything that could have been done to make our economy more stable?
We’ve been through boom/bust, boom/bust over and over again in this
decade.
We had the Internet
bubble. The real estate bubble. But, in terms of the real economy,
we were doing pretty well considering 9.11 and some other shocks
that we’ve experienced. By real economy, I mean, unemployment, employment
growth, GDP, that is, until this recession. This is the first really
big recession that we’ve had since 1981- 1982. It may surpass that.
We don’t know yet. Since the real economy has done well this decade,
I’m optimistic that we’ll do well in the future. But we have to
get over the recession. That’s still a challenge. We’re not over
it yet.
Credit card
fees have gotten out of control and American consumers are complaining
to Congress and asking for regulation of the fees. Is this a good
idea?
It’s a problem
for borrowers. On the other hand, I hate to see the government regulating
these rates, just like I don’t like to see the government regulating
other interest rates. I don’t think the government can do it successfully.
I don’t know enough about the ins and outs of credit card interest
rates to be able to say anything in detail. But I can say with
confidence that if the government gets involved it will be a
mistake.
Why? Won’t
people be better able to pay off their debt and start spending again,
if they don’t get over-gouged by the creditors they owe money to?
The government
will just mess it up and it’ll be a political football. Do you want
interest rates set up by a political football? That’s how you set
very low rates. Do you want to give away so much credit? You need
a higher rate to compensate for the risk of default by the borrower
and for the cost of managing small loans. That’s the law of supply
and demand that is never violated. It’s a mistake. It’s political
pandering, and I hope we don’t do it.
This is the
first of a two-part series with Dr. Gary Becker. Tune into the June
ezine, when Dr. Becker weighs in on Detroit, the automobile bailout,
the Chrysler bankruptcy and more.
Dr. Gary
Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology
Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago.
He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking
work in "human capital."
To keep track
of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his web
site and blog.
To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening
the U.S. economy, check out the 2009
Milken Global Economic Conference web page. Dr. Gary
Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference every year since
it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes in April 2009.
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Hulu
Your Heroes.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
a Media
Stock Report Card.
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| The
Simpsons: Waverly Hills 9021-D'oh Season 20 : Ep. 19 |
Despite the
Recession, which is crippling the legacy media companies and killing
print newspapers and magazines, online ad revenue ballooned in 2008,
boasting a 10.6% increase in earnings, to a record $23.4 billion
in online ad sales. (Total advertising revenue was off by 2.6% in
2008, down to $136.8 billion, according to the Nielsen Company.)
After five consecutive years of record gains, Internet advertising
revenue is now inching closer to topping the number one advertising
revenue vehicle in 2008 -- cable television, at $26.6 billion.
Now, within
the hot, there is the smoking hot. What is the fastest growing segment
of online advertising today? Video! Video more than doubled its
revenue stream to $734 million from $324 million, according to the
Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers
LLP (PwC). Media executives predict this trend is only beginning.
"You’re
going to see huge demand for high quality video advertising on the
web," according to Peter Chernin, who recently announced his
resignation as the President and COO of News Corp. Speaking at the
Milken Global Conference on April 29, 2009, Mr. Chernin predicted
that search ads would remain strong. However, since many corporations
are frustrated with the returns of online display advertising, there
is a migration to video as "a way to deliver emotional messages"
with the hope of better results, according to Mr. Chernin.
Enter Hulu.com,
Fox. com and CBS.com, three sites that are bringing television and
film to the Internet. These sites have proven that viewers can handle
watching something more meaningful and time-consuming than a 20-second
home video of a dog skateboarding. Fans are now Huluing their Heroes
and visiting CBS.com for secret scenes of Survivor, with
limited commercial interruption.
Interestingly,
Fox (owner of Hulu) and CBS have found a new way to monetize reruns,
vintage films and even scenes that would have previously littered
an editing room floor. The shows, films and out-takes are shown
with 30-second ads, typically with a second watch counting down
the time for you, which takes less time to watch than it does to
say TIVO.
YouTube is jumping
on board with their new TV and film programming. On May 1, 2009,
YouTube featured the Leaders of YesterYear programming slate, with
Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, an episode of I Dream
of Jeanne (that features Napoleon) and a BBC special on Kings.
Fox.com looks more like a TV guide than a website these days (as
does CBS.com). And then there are the old school sites, like AOL
and Yahoo, with their display ads and newspaper format, which is
about as appealing as a dictionary to new media junkies.
As you can see
in the attached Media
Stock Report Card, the explosion of Internet advertising
(and implosion of print and network) is already registering on the
earnings reports. Revenue was down in the last quarter at Viacom,
Time-Warner, News Corp. and down significantly at Sony, which lost
25% in the last quarter versus the same quarter a year ago. AOL’s
advertising revenue dropped 20% in the first quarter. Meanwhile,
Google was the only advertising-based company that posted 6% earnings
growth, year over year.
Google is still
topping the charts as the most popular site on the web, while YouTube
(owned by Google) pulls in at number four. Under the (former) direction
of Peter Chernin, News Corp. sites , including MySpace, Hulu.com
and Fox.com, are leading the web in innovative content monetization
models, and Hulu.com, like MySpace before it, is making exponential
strides from relative obscurity into the mainstream.
Top 10 sites
in the U.S.
1. Google
2. Yahoo
3. Facebook
4. YouTube
5. MySpace
6. MSN
7. Windows
Live (Live.com, search engine from MSN)
8. Wikipedia
9. CraigsList.org
10. eBay
AOL and CNN
(divisions of Time Warner) came in at #11 and #15, respectively.
Source:
Alexa.com
Time-Warner,
a respected, legacy content provider and owner of CNN, Time
magazine, Warner Brothers Studios and more, has very troubling operating
margins, at -32.02%.
Time-Warner,
at the insistence of Carl Icahn, invested almost $3 billion in buying
back it’s own stock between August 1, 2007 and April 28, 2009, a
period during which the company lost -$13.64
billion, only to have the price drop so low that they
had to do a one-for-three reverse split on March 27, 2009. Ouch!
All of the major
media companies, with the exception of Google, have noteworthy long-
term debt. Meanwhile, Google boasts $4 billion in profits last year
and almost $16 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable
securities, and no debt.
We are still
smack dab in the middle of a recession, and advertising is one of
the weakest segments in a downturn. So, I wouldn’t be in a hurry
to invest in any company this early in the year, even though Google
is clearly the leader of the pack – in earnings, in cash, in profit
margins, in popularity and in potential.
MySpace, Fox.com
and Hulu.com could start to carry their weight going forward, especially
once the recession turns the corner. However, News Corporation cannot
be thought of as a "healthy" investment at this juncture,
due to all of their legacy holdings, their negative earnings in
the last quarter and their negative profit margins. Additionally,
Peter Chernin (the man who bought MySpace and Hulu for News Corp.,
lead the industry in innovation and was #2 at News Corp. for the
last twelve years) is stepping down. AND the contracts for MySpace
CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson are both up for renewal
in October of this year. There are a lot of "if’s" in
the future for News Corp. that smart investors will take note of.
Everything Google
touches turns to gold, but you don’t want to buy high. Time-Warner
is a media company that nearly died during the DOT COM bust, and
has never regained fiscal health. Time-Warner needs a White Knight
to save the day. That happens more in movies than it does on Wall
Street, especially since banks are broke, investment bankers have
been categorized as "vultures," and the Feds may have
spent all of the taxpayer’s money buying up the insurance companies,
banks and auto manufacturers.
I am keeping
Google on the Watch List portion of the Hot News on Cool Stocks
list for now, anticipating that the markets may see further decline,
dragging down Google’s share price. I added Time-Warner to the Cooling
Off List today.
Full Disclosure:
I do not own stock in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, a featured teacher in
the movie, Spiritual Liberation, and CEO of one of the most respected,
independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She
has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has
partnered content with Forbes.com,
Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more. She has appeared
on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC, Time Magazine, More Magazine,
USA Today, NPR and national radio shows. For more information please
visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect
a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance
of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk
tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of
your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should
never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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Great
Mother's Day Gift Ideas.
by Staff.
Every
year, we do a survey, and overwhelmingly, in the past, our moms
reported that they prefer stock, cash, spa gift certificates and
couples’ getaway vacations over chocolate and flowers. This year,
gold stocks might generate more smiles than a Bank of America stock
certificate, but don’t just blow off the survey altogether and show
up with daisies in your hand. Bad idea! Mom loves flowers, but she
also desires something more lasting!
If your love
is much bigger than your wallet, there is always a gift that is
both loving and priced right. Below we’ve put together a few recession-friendly
presents that should warm her heart, keep you out of the Hot Seat
and not break the bank! Remember, your presence and attention is
priceless, so above all, make Mother’s Day a day of celebration.
1.
Couples Get Away Vacations.
Some
of our favorite destinations are sporting hotel prices that haven’t
been this low for over a decade. At Christmas, I was able to get
a 4-star hotel in Beverly Hills, California for $135/night, using
Priceline’s
Name Your Own Price option. New York City, Las Vegas, Florida --
hotels everywhere! – are all offering recessionary discounts on
rooms and are often throwing in a few amenities to boot. The
Parker Palm Springs (where Brad and Angelina shot their
W Magazine shoot while Brad was still married), a fabulous
getaway, is offering $99/night during the week!
The trick to
the Priceline Name Your Own Price option is that you have to know
where you want to go, what kind of hotel you want to stay in and
what you are willing to pay. The only thing you cannot control is
the exact hotel that you’ll end up staying at. For instance, if
I bid $135/night in Beverly Hills for a 4-star hotel, I know I’m
not going to end up at a Holiday Inn in Riverside, but I’m not sure
whether I’ll get the Four Seasons or the Century Plaza Hotel in
Beverly Hills. It’s worth a try!
If you want
to book the Parker
Palm Springs, call 760.770.5000 before midnight on May
5, 2009 and tell them Natalie Pace sent you! Be sure to try their
Muddled Lemonade (shhh.. secret recipe) while you play tennis on
their signature clay court!
Helpful Hint:
Priceline typically divides each major city into at least four regions.
If you absolutely want to stay in one area over another, don’t bid
too low. Try bidding 75% of what the hotels in that area are charging.
(Priceline tells you that.) If you want to stay in Manhattan and
don’t care if you are in Soho or near Central Park, you have seven
chances (one for each area) to keep upping your bid until one is
accepted. So you can start a little lower in that case.
2.
Las Vegas.
Deals
abound in Sin City. Trump
Hotel Las Vegas is offering great rooms for just $89/night,
and is throwing in $50 credit at the Spa! The
Venetian is offering rooms for just $169/night with
$150 in coupons back to you (including free Internet access, and
discounts on Phantom of the Opera tickets and restaurants),
if you book before May 31, 2009. Las Vegas is as well known for
its shows, spas and restaurants these days, as it is for gambling.
And don’t worry (too much) about the heat in the desert. The pools
in Vegas are as spectacular as the showgirls.
3.
Spa certificates and club memberships.
It’s
worth a call to her favorite gym (that she’s been putting off joining
until you have the extra dough) to see if they are offering any
signup specials. A local gym in Santa Monica was giving away the
month of May free to anyone who signed up! Also, if you mention
that it is a Mother’s Day gift, the local spa might throw in an
extra service just to get your business. Don’t be afraid to ask
for special treatment! When business is hurting, as most are these
days, buyers are being wooed in with lots of special incentives.
Be sure, however,
that this is what she wants for Mother’s Day and that you have selected
the exact location that she wants to join. Women can be pretty picky
about where they want to be seen sweating. (In other words, she
will have had to mention joining this place a gazillion times.)
4.
A Day of Pampering.
If
money is really preventing you from buying the gift of her dreams,
don’t underestimate the value of just getting it right all day long!
Wake her up with, "I love you," on your lips and handpicked
flowers in your hand. Deliver a handwritten card featuring five
things you love about her as a woman and a mother. Treat her to
her favorite breakfast – in bed, of course. Jump in the car and
take a long walk at her favorite destination, whether it is the
beach, the lake or the mall. Gaze into her eyes at sunset. Toast
to her with her favorite libation – whether it is champagne or sparkling
water. And at the end of the night, could she use a foot massage?
Women swooned over the scene when Kevin Costner painted the toenails
of Susan Sarandon in Bull Durham. Can you beat that? Try
to. It’ll pay off in spades for the Queen of your home.
There is a scene
in everyone’s life that plays on the Favorites Highlight reel, and
most of the time, it didn’t cost a thing. Make it your goal to achieve
that.
I didn’t mention
the kids here because, of course, they will join you for breakfast,
or for the walk and perhaps even most of the day. But be sure to
make time just for you, as her husband, to honor her and express
love in a more meaningful way than you ever have before.
5.
Stocks and Cash
Does
she have her own brokerage account? Many of the online discount
brokerages will let you set up an IRA online with a pretty small
amount of money. If you want to really impress her, set up the account
and do a monthly auto-deposit as well (which can be as low as $100,
if need be). Include my book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is and a subscription
to the NataliePace.com ezine so that she learns how to get
rich, while enriching the world, with her newest piece of financial
freedom! That’s a pretty empowering gift package for a very reasonable
price. (The book is just $17 online and the subscription is specially
priced at $75 for the year. See below for details.)
9 Months
Free When You Purchase 3 Months of the NataliePace.com Ezine
We’re offering
a special on the ezine of nine months free when you sign Mom up
for three months. So she’ll receive ongoing support all year long!
Simply go to the JOIN NOW link at NataliePace.com, and register
for three months. Pay $75 on your credit card. Then send Heather@NataliePace.com
a quick note asking for a Happy Mother’s Day email that you can
forward to your beloved. Heather will send you the Welcome email,
and add nine additional months of subscription in the back office.
You can buy
Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is at your local
book store or online for a great gift that satisfies her desire
to build a better life and a better world at the same time.
6.
Get Away Vacation and Stock Retreat rolled into one!
Join
Natalie Pace for a 3-day Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat June 11-13, 2009. You and your
beloved will get three full days of hands-on abundance, prosperity
and investing training from Natalie Pace, a #1 stock picker, personally
in a board room setting with just fourteen people. The retreat takes
place in the beautiful, sunny beach town of Santa Monica, California,
and Natalie does some of her training right on the sand, while watching
the sunset.
Remember that
Natalie saved Bill and Nilo’s nest egg with a pie chart that she
drew up on a napkin. Imagine the easy-to-follow wisdom she can impart
to you in 3-days!
This is truly
a retreat where couples (and singles and family members) get to
have fun, expand their wisdom and be a little adventurous all at
the same time. Mom will love it! Many women, including the Green
Goddess Investment Club, who are earning 40-150% gains over the
last eight months, got their start at the Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat.
Register NOW,
before Mother’s Day, and receive Early Bird Pricing of just $1995
per person or $3,300 per couple. There are only four seats remaining
at this retreat, so CALL 866.476.7442 NOW TO BOOK YOUR SEAT!
Remember that
Mother’s Day is as important to get right as the engagement ring
was when you asked your wife to marry you. Splurge a little this
year, if not in money, then in creativity! Plan something special.
If you are a
mom, please weigh in on your favorite gift at the survey
on the home page at NataliePace.com. That way your hubby and kids
have a chance of getting you what you really desire. (Just leave
the page open on your computer strategically, so that they can see
the survey results…) Check out what this year’s survey
reveals if you’re looking to buy Mom something she’ll really appreciate!
|
|
Ask
Natalie: Should I Start a 401(k)?
I’m
54 and don’t have any retirement plan…
Dear Natalie:
I just started
a new job and my employer is offering me a 401k auto deduction of
3% before taxes beginning May 1, if I choose. How do I know if this
is the best choice for my money to invest? I have no current
investments or retirement accounts......... am 54 years old and
need to make some wise safe investment decisions........ Can you
please advise?
Signed Better
Late Than Never?
 |
| Photo: Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com.
(C) 2008 Stylist and Makeup: Arlene Hylton-Campbell.
|
Dear Better
Late Than Never!
Yes. Read my
new book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, to learn all of
the reasons why, but yes, to 401(k), yes to investing, and, yes,
get started right away. Did you know that if you were 18 and you
only earned $14 an hour, but put 10% into a 401k religiously, and
never got a raise, you’d be a millionaire before you were 50? It’s
best to start the investing habit early, but never too late to start
doing the right thing! Here’s how it works.
The first year
you would contribute $2,890 and your returns would be, on average,
$347 (or 12%). The second year, you contribute another $2,890. Your
new principal is $6,127. Your gains are $735. By the 6th
year, you are making as much in gains as you are contributing each
year. By the 10th year, you have over $50,000, and are
earning $6,082 in gains that year. This is based upon an average
annual return of 12% in stocks, which is what stocks have been doing
most of this century. And even if you don’t get those kind of gains
(keep reading because this is a consideration), you still have monthly
401(k) contributions going toward your Fund My Dream Life account,
instead of poured down the drain of your spending habits.
Now, you might
say, stocks are doing terribly and you’re afraid and everyone around
you is telling you it’s the Apocalypse and the markets are going
to continue to drop! Acckkk! But, you don’t have to lose the money
you put in your 401(k). Most plans have a "safe" or at
least safer allocation, such as Treasury bills, short-term government
bonds or the money markets, which are not invested in the "stock
market."
There have been
many opportunities over the last ten years to make a lot of money
in the stock market, without a lot of time or attention. You do
need the "know how," however, which is why it’s important
to read my book – because buying and holding mutual funds doesn’t
work in a slow growth economy (which we’re in). The last ten years
has seen a series of booms and busts, where you could have earned
a lot of money if you were 1) properly diversified in ETFs (instead
of mutual funds), 2) rebalancing once a year and capturing your
gains, and 3) keeping at least a percent equal to your age safe.
(If you just bought and held and checked off boxes blindly, you
would have lost a little money.)
You need to
learn how much to keep safe and how to properly diversify your holdings,
so that you easily can see and capture gains each year. Don’t get
scared, it’s as easy as a pie chart and that is outlined in my book
also (page 91, I believe). For now, just start your 401(k) and put
most or all of it in the safest place you can, such as Treasury
Bills or a short-term government bond fund.
Get started
in the habit of investing in a better life and then make it your
job to start learning just four other important things.
-
Get
educated so that your money can really gain while you
sleep (no fuss, no fret, no babysitting). Reading my book is
a great start. Coming to my retreat means that in three days,
you’ll set up your retirement blueprint for life! Buy Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is anywhere that
books are sold. Get more information on my next Get
Rich and Green Retreat on
the home page at NataliePace.com. There are only four seats
remaining so if you’re interested, call 866.476.7442 right away
to reserve your seat.
We have a special on the price now through May 15, 2009. Subscribers
receive the Early Bird Pricing and a $2000 gift of a 12-month
premium subscription. That way you get the 3-days of education
and then ongoing support all year long, in the form of monthly
ezine, mid-month update and quarterly teleconferences with me.
-
Ask
your employer if they do a match! Many employers do.
That’s an instant raise.
-
Figure
out how to put 10%, not just 3%, into your retirement
plan. If the 401(k) is capped at 3%, then go to an online discount
brokerage and find out other tax-protected plans that you might
qualify for, including IRAs (SEP, ROTH, traditional), health
savings accounts, and more. Tithe to yourself and watch how
your Buy My Own Island Plans grow quickly! 401ks, IRAs and health
savings accounts all have tax advantages, and at least part
of this is money that you would be paying Uncle Sam. So, it’s
not more money being spent. It’s a check you write to yourself
instead of the IRS at the end of the year.
-
Pick
a better name. No one wants to start or grow a retirement
account or 401k. Everyone wants to start and nourish his or
her Buy My Own Dream House fund or the Send my Grandchildren
to College account. Pick a goal of why you want to start earning
money while you sleep, and what exactly you will do as you gain
more assets! This will inspire you to keep contributing to the
plan, maximizing the performance, adjusting as needed for greater
gain and then reaping what you profit once you’re ready to purchase
one more piece of your dream life!
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is,
a featured teacher in the movie, Spiritual Liberation, and CEO of
one of the most respected, independently owned financial news corporations
in the U.S. She has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com
and has partnered content with Forbes.com,
Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more. She has appeared
on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC, Time Magazine, More Magazine,
USA Today, NPR and national radio shows. For more information please
visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
.
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|
Change.
Change.
by Paul
Woods, President and CEO, Odyssey
Advisors.
"The
party that pretends to believe in limited government and free market
solutions took office in 2000 with a surplus and left taxpayers
with a trillion dollar deficit and the economy in shambles."
- Paul Woods
 |
President
Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States.
Photo: by Pete Souza |
Not since Jimmy
Carter left office has an incoming U.S. President inherited more
economic problems than Barak Obama. The standard bearer for the
party that pretends to believe in limited government and free market
solutions took office in 2000 with a surplus and left taxpayers
with a trillion dollar deficit and the economy in shambles. Citizens
of the U.S. saw a record amount of their wealth destroyed in 2008,
and a little common sense could have prevented most of this damage.
Change was inevitable.
President Obama’s
inauguration produced adoring crowds, fawning press coverage, and
the largest inaugural day drop in the stock market in history. Since
then, gold has gone to new highs and the stock market has lost over
20% of its value, which is also unprecedented for a new president.
Investors appear to be saying that different isn’t the same as better
and piling a lot more debt on future generations isn’t an exciting
new change of direction.
What’s billed
as change looks a LOT like the Clinton administration with a new
guy in charge. During the campaign, the implied promise to voters
was change would turn the economy around sooner rather than later.
Once Obama was elected, however, backpedaling to lower expectations
began immediately. Now, we’re being told that turning around the
economy may take a long time and things will probably get worse
before they get better.
Natalie’s
Note: The Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P500 index have lost
7% and 4% respectively since the beginning of the year, while NASDAQ
is up 7%, as of May 4, 2009!
Even though
a stimulus package in 2008 failed to prevent the economy from going
into a recession a few months later, a bigger version was passed
in the first quarter of 2009 amid warnings of the dire consequences
of inaction. While our infrastructure has been neglected too long
and needs to be modernized, most of this bill consists of pork barrel
spending and one time tax refunds for people that don’t pay taxes,
paid for by taking more money from the people that create jobs in
this country. Investors considered the implications of this new
"stimulus" bill carefully, and the stock market immediately
went to new lows. To add insult to injury, we were getting lectures
from the French about fiscal responsibility as the quarter ended.
In the first
quarter of 2009, the value style was a disaster, larger companies
did better than smaller ones, and investing in growth stocks produced
the least damage. For reference, here’s the stock market segment
scorecard for the first quarter of 2009:
|
|
Symbol
|
12/31/08
|
3/31/09
|
% Change
|
|
All Cap
Growth
|
RAG
|
301.54
|
286.50
|
-4.99%
|
|
All Cap
|
RUA
|
520.60
|
461.14
|
-11.42%
|
|
All Cap
Value
|
RAV
|
642.00
|
527.91
|
-17.77%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
RDG
|
249.49
|
240.24
|
-3.71%
|
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
RLG
|
371.18
|
354.15
|
-4.59%
|
|
MidCap
|
RMC
|
592.43
|
536.01
|
-9.52%
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
RUO
|
257.07
|
231.51
|
-9.94%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
RXA
|
487.77
|
433.67
|
-11.09%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
RUT
|
499.45
|
422.75
|
-15.36%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
RMV
|
649.34
|
549.21
|
-15.42%
|
|
Microcap
|
DFSCX
|
8.31
|
6.86
|
-17.45%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
RLV
|
487.05
|
401.55
|
-17.55%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
RUJ
|
735.37
|
586.68
|
-20.22%
|
Source: Telmet
Orion
Within these
market segments, any industry with tech in the name outperformed
everything else and gold stocks also did well. Interestingly, handgun
producers were the top performing sub-industry. Large financial
companies are now facing regulatory micromanagement and, if they
pay bonuses to keep their top people, all hell will break loose
in Congress. These and REITs continued to get pounded. For reference,
here’s the stock market index and industry group scorecard for the
first quarter of 2009:
|
|
Symbol
|
12/31/08
|
3/31/09
|
% Change
|
|
Dow
Industrials
|
INDU
|
8,776.39
|
7,608.92
|
-13.30%
|
|
Nasdaq
Composite
|
COMPN
|
1,577.03
|
1,528.59
|
-3.07%
|
|
S&P
500 Index
|
SPX
|
903.25
|
797.87
|
-11.67%
|
|
Russell
3000
|
RUA
|
520.60
|
461.14
|
-11.42%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technology
|
IXT
|
154.49
|
156.75
|
1.46%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
647.17
|
640.85
|
-0.98%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
IXB
|
235.05
|
228.88
|
-2.62%
|
|
Health
Care
|
HCX
|
309.41
|
283.04
|
-8.52%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
S25
|
169.41
|
154.82
|
-8.61%
|
|
Clean
Energy
|
ECO
|
86.36
|
77.46
|
-10.31%
|
|
Energy
|
IXE
|
479.57
|
426.79
|
-11.01%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
S30
|
246.66
|
218.77
|
-11.31%
|
|
Utilities
|
IXU
|
295.11
|
259.79
|
-11.97%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
S2020
|
121.60
|
99.73
|
-17.99%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
S2010
|
222.44
|
171.12
|
-23.07%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
3,537.15
|
2,684.08
|
-24.12%
|
|
Financials
|
S40
|
168.79
|
119.01
|
-29.49%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
509.21
|
335.52
|
-34.11%
|
Source: Telmet
Orion
In the bond
market, interest rates rose a bit and there was a continued flight
to quality in the first quarter while liquidity continued to be
a problem in other sectors. U.S. Treasury yields are currently at
unsustainably low levels and have prompted the Federal Reserve to
announce they will purchase $300 Billion in Treasury securities
in the open market in an effort to improve credit conditions. Treasury
debt is expected to be around $1 trillion higher this fiscal year
than last, and the Fed will be absorbing a significant share of
this new supply.
|
Current Yield
|
12/31/08
|
3/31/09
|
% Change
|
|
90 day Treasury Bills
|
0.11%
|
0.21%
|
90.91%
|
|
5 Year Treasury Notes
|
1.55%
|
1.67%
|
7.74%
|
|
10 Year Treasury Notes
|
2.25%
|
2.71%
|
20.44%
|
Source:
Bloomberg LP
Credit quality
has driven returns during the quarter. U.S. Government Agency spreads
narrowed versus Treasuries and the liquidity in corporate bonds
improved slightly. Municipal bond yields are still higher than Treasuries
for almost every maturity, which has historically been a good buying
opportunity. The flight to quality has driven Treasury bonds to
overvalued levels and there is currently a gradual shift from credit
risk to interest rate risk in the bond market. This should allow
other sectors to perform better from here. As a result we are keeping
our exposure diversified to help reduce interest rate, credit, and
other risks. We are investing in the higher-quality sectors whose
yields have increased significantly such as Agency bonds, Municipals,
and investment-grade corporate debt in strong companies better able
to survive the economic downturn.
As the first
quarter ended, the stock market rallied from its lows and investors
were wondering whether they had seen the bottom. Our crystal ball
is currently in the shop for repairs, so we’re not going to attempt
an answer. However, interest rates are still low, so bonds aren’t
much competition. Earnings estimates for 2009 appear to be stabilizing
after being cut dramatically a few months ago. Stock market valuations
are in the low end of their historic range and there is currently
a mountain of cash on the sidelines. As a result, if earnings finally
start meeting or beating expectations, the downside risk is probably
limited from this point. However, if earnings miss estimates again
in the first quarter of 2009, investors may end up wondering why
they forgot the saying "sell in May and go away."
About
Paul Woods
Paul Woods
is the President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment
Officer of Odyssey
Advisors. He has over 35 years of experience in the
investment management and research analysis of common stocks. He
manages the Odyssey Clean Energy Portfolio. Paul has done a great
deal of independent research on clean energy and has written multiple
articles on various segments of this industry. He can be contacted
at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright
© 2009 by Odyssey Advisors LLC.
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Bearing Up in a Bear
Market:
You
Still Need to Open Your Account Statements.
FINRA.org
Investor Alert.
Especially
in a down market, investors may be tempted to try and avoid the
trauma of seeing the reduced value of their holdings by not opening
their statements for their brokerage, mutual fund, or 401(k) or
other retirement plan accounts. It has even been suggested that
avoiding looking at your statements may be a good way to respond
to turbulent financial times, because it prevents you from selling
out at the market bottom and foregoing the expected—but unpredictable—turn
around in the markets.
Don't Check
Out on Checking Up
This
advice may be comforting—and may even help keep you focused on the
long-term performance of your investments—but ignoring your statements
can blind you to problems in your accounts other than their performance.
No one can protect your accounts like you can, and so you need to
open your statements and see what is going on in your account.
Looking for
Trouble
Here's
a checklist to help you identify potential problems you may need
to respond to promptly:
Verify the
activity in your account:
- Are there
any trades or cash transfers that you didn't authorize?
- Are the trades
reported consistent with your confirmations?
- Are any cash
withdrawals or additions not accurate?
- Are the size
and price of all purchases and sales correct?
- Are all anticipated
dividend and interest payments reflected?
Review your
account holdings:
- Are all securities
and cash positions and any debits or credits accurately reflected?
- Does your
portfolio agree with your diversification and asset allocation
objectives?
Confirm
basic account information:
- Are any address
changes accurate?
- Are there
any charges or fees that you don't understand?
- Are any important
changes in your relationship with the firm or your broker reported?
- Are there
any notices that require a response?
Don't Snooze
and Lose
Some
of these problems, such as incorrect electronic fund transfers,
must be identified to your stockbroker or banker within 60 days
after they occur or you waive your right to a correction. Still
others may result in actions by your firm you don't want and—if
you don't act promptly—take time, effort, and cost to undo. Immediately
question any transaction or entry that you do not understand or
did not authorize. Don't be timid or ashamed to complain. Here are
the steps you should take:
- If you think
it's a minor mistake, talk to your broker. This may be the fastest
way to resolve the problem.
- If you can't
resolve the problem with your broker, or you think your broker
engaged in unauthorized transactions or other serious misconduct,
report it to the firm's management or compliance department in
writing.
- If you and
your firm still can't resolve the problem, contact us. You can
file a complaint using our online
complaint form. If you are seeking to recover money, you
may want to consider arbitration
or mediation.
Bottom Line
Always
check to see if there are problems in your statement that you can—and
need—to correct. While it may feel better to avoid seeing the losses
in your portfolio from the bear market, you can be opening yourself
to problems if you don't open your statements.
To receive
the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information
sign up for Investor
News.
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|
The Treasury's Plan
to Buy Bank Assets.
by
Dr. Gary Becker.
One
good aspect of the Treasury's plan to enlist the private sector
in buying mortgage-backed and other bank assets is that it reduces
the uncertainty-if it is implemented! - about what the government
plans to do further in aiding banks. Starting with the vacillations
of Henry Paulson, the former Treasury Secretary, the federal government's
efforts to help banks have lacked a clear direction, and have wasted
a lot of taxpayers money. Especially during a serious recession
(I will call this a recession, not a depression, until the cumulative
fall in GDP equals or exceeds 8-10 percent-so far the fall in US
GDP has been about 2%, and world GDP has hardly fallen), consumers
and businesses can cope much better if they know what the government
plans to do. They can adjust much more easily to known government
policies, even if they are not good policies, than to changing policies
that lack any direction.
A
major criticism of early plans for the government to buy bank assets
through an asset auction was that the government would overpay for
the assets since they did not know the worth of the assets offered
to them. Although that difficulty might be overcome, the Geithner
proposal uses government money to encourage hedge funds, pension
plans, and other financial institutions to buy bank assets in order
to use private competition to determine the worth of these assets.
Hedge funds and other financial institutions do not want to overbid
since that would reduce their profits from any future appreciation
in the value of the assets bought. Competition among different financial
intermediaries for these assets would prevent them from underbidding
since they would then not be able to buy the assets.
To
encourage private participation, the Treasury Secretary is offering
bidders very generous terms. If say a hedge fund bids $100 for an
asset, the fund would have to risk only about 7%, or $7. Another
7% would be risked by the Treasury (i.e., from taxpayers), and the
rest would be a loan guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp. (FDIC). If the asset rises in value over time, the Treasury
and the hedge fund would share the profits equally, while the hedge
fund's losses if the price goes below $100 is limited to the $7
it puts up, no matter how low the price goes.
Therefore,
the downside loss to private companies in this example would be
sharply limited by the equity they put in, while the upside gain
could far exceed their initial equity. This means that hedge funds
and other funds would find riskier assets very attractive, and they
would bid more for them than for less risky assets with the same
expected return. For example, suppose one asset had a 100% chance
of being worth $100 in the future. The expected value of the asset
is obviously $100, but a private fund would bid $107 because the
Treasury would pay $7 of this bid.
Suppose,
on the other hand, there is another asset that has a 10% chance
of appreciating to $1000, but it has a 90% chance of becoming worthless.
The expected value of this asset is also $100, like the safe asset,
but in my example it is worth much more to bidders under the Treasury's
terms since the FDIC would pay the successful bidder 86% of its
bid price if the asset became worthless. It can be directly shown
that private funds bidding their expected value would then bid about
$242 for this asset, which far exceeds the asset's overall expected
value of $100 because the FDIC is guaranteeing most of the loss,
and the fund would collect half the appreciation.
Even
if it were desirable to subsidize private funds to bid for bank
assets, is it wise to structure the subsidy in this way so that
the bidding is skewed toward more risky assets? One reason for doing
so is that assets with greater variability in their future worth
are presumably harder to value. Hence banks holding these assets
might value them more than other financial institutions would. These
would then be the type of assets that banks would be reluctant to
sell in an unsubsidized market since market bids would be below
bank estimates of their value. The Treasury's approach raises the
willingness to pay by hedge funds and other financial institutions
for precisely such risky assets.
Posner's
proposal is to do more of what the government did earlier; namely,
lend to banks in return for preferred stock in the borrowing banks.
This has the advantage of being simpler than the Treasury's convoluted
proposal, and Posner gives some other advantages. However, I would
worry a lot that the government when they hold greater amounts of
stock would try to micromanage banks even in greater detail than
they are already doing. Congress and the president have complained
loudly about bonuses, pay levels, golf outings, and other business
activities, and legislation was introduced to limit pay and perquisites.
Under Geithner's plan, Congress might have less incentive to micromanage
the decisions of hedge funds and others who buy bank assets since
the government would have an equity interest in particular assets
rather than an equity interest in the overall profits of these funds.
However,
Congress would also complain a lot if hedge funds and others made
a large profit from the assets they bought with government guarantees.
Perhaps this is why the Treasury's proposal gives such a huge subsidy
to the funds that would bid for bank assets. In the absence of large
subsidies, leaders of these funds would be reluctant to expose themselves
to the torrent of criticism and interference from Congress and perhaps
also the President. Nevertheless, it is highly worrisome that taxpayers
would become committed to such potentially large additional subsidies
to the financial sector.
Addendum
to the Treasury's Plan to Buy Bank Assets-Becker
Above,
I give an example to illustrate the Treasury's plan to buy the "toxic"
assets of banks. Since I left a few quite important implications
of the example unclear, this addendum will consider the same example
in more detail.
Recall
that the Plan would encourage hedge funds and other financial institutions
to bid for bank assets. These institutions would only have to put
up about 7% of their bid price since the Treasury will supply another
7%, and the FDIC will loan the remaining 86%. If assets appreciate
in value over the bid price, the Treasury and funds share the profits
equally after the FDIC is repaid. If the asset declines in value,
funds are only liable for 7% of the decline, and the FDIC and Treasury
absorb the rest.
In
my example, there is a 10% chance that an asset will be worth $1000,
and a 90% chance that it will be worthless, so that the full expected
value of the asset is $100. Assuming competition among funds forces
them to bid the expected value of this asset to them, how much will
they bid? When the asset pays off $1000, a fund would get half the
difference between $1000 and 86% of its bid price, while if the
asset becomes worthless they would be compensated for everything
but 7% of what they bid. The expected value of these outcomes is
approximately $243, and that would be the price that competition
forces hedge funds and other funds to pay for the assets. Since
the expected value of the asset is only $100, government subsidies
would encourage funds to bid about 2 1/2 times the true worth of
the asset!
The
government would pay the difference between the bid price and the
worth of an asset, or $143 in this example. Contrary to many assertions
made about the Treasury Plan, this subsidy does not on average go
to successful bidders since the expected cost of the asset to them
equals the expected value of the asset to them. Of course, the luckier
buyers of these assets can make a lot of profits, and they could
be subject to Congressional wrath that they profited at the government's
expense. The $143 subsidy goes to banks, for they would receive
almost 2 1/2 times the worth of their "toxic " assets.
Perhaps
good reasons motivate the government to use this indirect way to
subsidize banks rather than to give them the subsidy directly. However,
it is a strange program indeed where banks get subsidized in proportion
to how many "bad" assets they hold. This will make banks wish that
they had made even greater mistakes, and held more assets that are
likely to be truly worthless. However, these worthless assets could
be worth a fortune to banks.
Dr.
Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics,
and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University
of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his
groundbreaking work in "human capital."
To
keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit
his web site and blog.
To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening
the U.S. economy, check out the 2009
Milken Global Economic Conference web page. Dr. Gary
Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference every year since
it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes in April 2009.
|
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Spring
Cleaning Your Body.
by Carolyn
Schropp BS, NC, Functional Nutritional Consultant and Educator at
HealthWalk©
It
happens every spring. We fling open the windows, put away our winter
coats, and suddenly get the urge to clean the house. But do we ever
think about "spring cleaning" the toxins from our body?
Detoxifying
in the spring is an important part of the traditional ayurvedic
medicine seasonal routine. Spring is the kapha season; because the
wet and cool weather reflects the moist, cool, heavy qualities in
the body that ayurveda believes predominate during this time of
the year.
Biologically,
nature supports cleansing of the body in the spring. In winter the
digestive fire is high, and people eat more sweet, rich and heavy
foods. Mostly we are unable to assimilate these hard to digest foods
so the undigested wastes and toxins accumulate in our bodies. If
you don’t assist these toxins in moving out of your body, you can
become prone to flu, colds, cough or allergies. You might feel unusually
fatigued, sluggish or drowsy after a meal. Your skin can be less
radiant, heavier, and oilier. If the toxins are allowed to keep
accumulating in the body, even more serious illnesses can result.
Spring is the
best season for detoxification; nature is already trying to clear
out the toxins. It’s the time of year to help the body efficiently
detoxify. How do you help the body with its own spring cleaning?
Here at HealthWalk
we have several modalities to support you in this process and we
will work with you to tailor a program for your personal needs.
Vital
Hematology live blood analysis can show the condition of
your blood, which circulates throughout the body once every 70 minutes.
An accurate picture of the body’s overall health can be revealed
– from parasites, microorganisms, heavy metals, stress and vitamin
deficiencies can be seen among other stressors.
Functional
Nutritional Counseling, Adrenal
and Hormonal Analysis and Biomarkers
Analysis can show you how the various crucial adrenal, hormonal
and biomarkers balances in your body are operating. Together the
HealthWalk team will then work with you to regain and maintain the
optimal equilibrium to sustain your health through supplementation,
nutrition and lifestyle adjustments.
Eating organic
might be more expensive but well worth it. Committing to eating
only foods that haven’t been sprayed with pesticides is an immediate
way to dramatically cut your exposure to toxins. On an average those
of us who eat conventional fruits and vegetables consume over a
gallon of neurotoxins per year from pesticides on the food. Another
great benefit of eating organic produce is that they are packed
full of more nutrients and anti-oxidants than its chemically showered
alternative.
The liver is
the second largest organ in the body. This organ’s job is to process
and filter the toxins in the body. Because of the many chemicals,
additives and pollutants it deals with every single day, our livers
are chronically over worked. The problem with this is that the overworked
liver can let toxic chemicals, heavy metals, excess sugars and hormones
out into the blood stream and body, contributing to and/ or causing
health problems such as PMS, skin rashes, fatigue, obesity, cancer
and more. Treat your liver well and it will do its job. Here at
HealthWalk
our nutritionist will work with you on how to detoxify the body
through proper nutrition and supplementation.
You are what
you eat. One of the best ways of detoxing your body is to eat good,
nutritious and detoxifying foods. HealthWalk’s
nutritionist will help take the guesswork out of what foods to eat
to properly detoxify. Sticking to whole foods and cutting out processed
foods can really help. Processed foods are full of additives and
the plastic and tin cans that processed food comes in can leach
dioxins and metals like aluminum into your body as well as produce/deposit
pseudo-estrogens in men and women which mimic the hormone estrogen,
creating hormonal imbalances which can lead to cancer among other
diseases.
At HealthWalk
we can analyze and support the rebalancing of your hormones based
on saliva hormone testing (Hormone/Adrenal
Analysis). World Health Organization has found that 100%
of the population has hormonal imbalances and that a good percentage
of our illnesses are due to this factor. It is now apparent that
resolving hormone imbalances is one of the keys to good health and
wellness.
A client came
into HealthWalk
complaining about all of the medications his physician has him taking.
He has developed several health problems from some of the medications
including night sweats, fatigue and extra weight gain. He worked
with our Vital Hematologist and Functional Nutritionist to analyze
his overall health so that there is a comprehensive plan to support
his wellbeing. They put him on a natural detoxification program,
suggested a few natural supplements and recommended some dietary
changes to account for the effects of his medications. He has now
lost weight, gained his energy back and his night sweats are gone.
Detoxifying
your body is a wonderful gift to give yourself this spring. You
will rid yourself of the winter sluggishness, lose weight and feel
more vibrant. Come to HealthWalk we can help you detoxify and help
you feel healthier and happier too!
At HealthWalk©
we are dedicated to working with you to provide the most comprehensive
picture of your health so that you are empowered with the knowledge
and solutions to achieve and maintain vibrant health.
HealthWalk©,
the leading edge, non-invasive integrated healthcare center and
products company, has specially priced Health and Wellness Products
and Services for NataliePace.com subscribers. HealthWalk is offering
10% discount for NataliePace.com subscribers on all individual HealthWalk
products and services. Please mention the discount code, HWNP upon
ordering.

Call
HealthWalk at 877-255-4703 or email info@healthwalk.com
www.healthwalk.com
HealthWalk,
5825Avenida Encinas suite 111, Carlsbad CA 92008
You
can lose everything in life and make it all back - With one exception…
Your Health
HealthWalk©
offers customized, non-invasive and effective support to enable
your body’s own innate powers to regain and enhance health, performance
and healing. HealthWalk is
dedicated to supporting and empowering you to achieve and maintain
vibrant wellness. HealthWalk
is a non-invasive, integrative healthcare facility with a global
umbrella of leading edge technologies, services, natural supplements
and products backed by over 20 years of research. HealthWalk
is based in Carlsbad, CA.
www.healthwalk.com
Phone 877.255.4703 info@healthwalk.com
Please
note: This article has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration.
The information herein is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure
or prevent any disease.
HealthWalk
is a separate entity from NataliePace.com and NataliePace.com offers
no guarantees of, nor do we endorse, their products and/or services.
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Chief Everything Officer
(aka Mom):
by Natalie
Pace.
Cast
Off Your Burdens and Really Enjoy This Mother’s Day!
 |
| Photo
Credit: Doug Mazell Stylist/Makeup: Arlene Hylton-Campbell |
As the Chief
Everything Officer of my home, which most mothers are, I often thought
that certain people in my life were letting me down. This person
owed me a phone call. That person: money. My husband: a better gift.
My children: more chores. I was all caught up with showing and telling
everyone how to live better (i.e. setting them straight on all of
the things I thought they should be doing for me!).
I’d seen and
heard lots of advice on the merits of cleaning up your own life
before you start worrying about the lives of others, but one day
it finally sunk in a little deeper. While my husband and son were
taking a nap, resting and snoozing away without a care in the world,
I was wrestling with myself over which exact minute they should
be waking up and what we would do to have fun as a family
once they did. (They were already having fun; I was the only
one not counting it as that.)
Just the day
before, I’d stressed myself out because they always wanted something
from me and I never had a moment for myself. "Mom, where are
my soccer cleats?" "Honey, we’re out of half and half."
Wow. How crazy
is that? You know you’re mindset is whacked when you get the thing
you most want – in this case, time to myself and peace and quiet
-- and instead of enjoying it, you are already trying to fix something
else that’s not right.
I decided to
take a bath. It wasn’t that much fun, the first time I focused off
of others and onto myself, but I forced myself to read a little
in the tub and kept heating it up until my fingers shriveled.
Over time, as
I kept training my focus from fixing them to righting myself, I
found I wasn’t nearly as bossy or moody. I was not imprisoned with
worry and responsibility about what others were or were not doing.
I focused my heart and mind and morals and energy into what I was
doing and what I was creating and how and what I wanted to be a
part of. That still included being a soccer mom and learning how
to bake the Desperate Housewives brownie recipe, but it also
began to include rollerblading with a girlfriend every Saturday
morning, and opening a brokerage account for myself, with a monthly
auto-deposit.
Instead of crying
that no one had ever thrown me a birthday party, I invited 40 friends
to celebrate with me at a charity fundraiser dinner. (My hair caught
on fire, but that is another story. Never put dozens of candles
on a birthday cake. It is a fire hazard!)
Instead of counting up all the times that my son did not take out
the trash, I simply tied his allowance to his trash chore! No more
bickering. Do it and you get paid. Do not do it and your allowance
suffers. I took myself out of the mix. I am not a child development
expert here, so consult the experts, but when the chore was no longer
about me, or about my child proving that he really loved me (by
taking out the trash), it was easier to find ways to get it done.
And the process
of that helped me to become a person that I actually enjoyed being
every day, regardless of what others do to me or do not do for me.
I was discovering that my son could find his own soccer socks (if
I didn’t jump and find them for him), my husband could pick up the
milk (if I asked him to), and I could research which stocks I wanted
to own and rollerblade my way back to the body I once sported (if
I quit fixing everyone else and focused on making myself into the
best person I could be).
Have a great Mother’s Day. As for me, I promise myself that I will
say "Thank You" for my gifts, even if they are burnt pancakes
and orange juice with a little too much frozen concentrate. And
I also promise to take a little time for myself to do something
that I love.
Speaking of
things I love, this job is the most fun I’ve ever had working and
I feel blessed every day. Thank you for continuing to support NataliePace.com
and my new book because your support allows me to continue operating!
Your purchase of my book and your ongoing subscription allows our
team to continue to add a splash of green to Wall Street and transform
lives on Main Street. This Mother’s Day, we’re offering two specials
for Mom, as our thanks to you for your support all of these years.
See below!
FYI: CNN is
doing a feature on my book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is the day before
Mother’s Day, May 9, 2009. So please visit the NataliePace.com Calendar
section for more information.
Mother’s
Day Gift Offers:
1. 1. 9 Months Free When You Purchase 3 Months of the
NataliePace.com Ezine
We’re offering
a special on the ezine of nine months free when you sign Mom up
for three months. So she’ll receive ongoing support all year long!
Simply go to the JOIN
NOW link at NataliePace.com, register for three months.
Pay $75 on your credit card. Then send Heather@NataliePace.com
a quick note asking for a Happy Mother’s Day email that you can
forward to your beloved. Heather will send you the Welcome email,
and add nine additional months of subscription in the back office.
2. Great
Gift for $25 (or less online): You can buy Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is at your local
book store or online for a great gift that satisfies her desire
to build a better life and U.S. and world.
3. Get
Away Vacation and Stock Retreat rolled into one!
Register NOW for the Get
Rich and Green Retreat
in Santa Monica, CA, before Mother’s Day, and receive Early Bird
Pricing of just $1995 per person or $3,300 per couple. There are
only four seats remaining at this intimate, investing retreat that
is taught hands-on by Natalie Pace for three days in a boardroom
setting. So CALL 866.476.7442 NOW TO BOOK YOUR SEAT! Get more information
on the banner ad at NataliePace.com.
To my mother
(who died before the age of 36) and my grandmother (who passed on
before the age of 26), "You are great. You are beautiful. You
are one with God. You are loved." (This is one of Dr. Rickie
Byars Beckwith chants.)
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5
Tips for Avoiding Foreclosure Scams.
by the
Federal
Reserve.
1.
Work only with a nonprofit, HUD-approved counselor.
If
you are looking for help to prevent foreclosure, be sure the counseling
agency is on the Department
of Housing and Urban Development's list of approved agencies.
Visit HUD's
website for an easily searchable list of HUD-approved housing counseling
agencies, or call 877-HUD-1515 (877-483-1515) for more information.
If you are approached by foreclosure counselors--by mail, phone,
or in person--make sure the counseling agency is HUD-approved before
you do business with them.
2. Don't
pay an arm and a leg. You
should not have to pay hundreds--or thousands--of dollars. Most
HUD-approved housing counselors provide no-cost counseling services
and many more provide low-cost counseling. Do not agree to work
with a counselor who collects a fee before providing you with any
services or who accepts payment only by cashier's check or wire
transfer. In general, do not pay money to anyone unless you know
exactly what services you will receive.
3. Be wary
of "guarantees."
A
reputable counselor will not guarantee to stop the foreclosure process,
no matter what your circumstances. Working with a legitimate counselor
can certainly increase your chances of keeping your home--but be
wary of people who promise a sure thing. Again, get the details
of your transaction, along with any promises, in writing first.
4. Know
what you are signing--and be sure you sign it.
Don't
let a counselor pressure you to sign paperwork you haven't had a
chance to read through carefully or that you don't understand. Don't
sign any blank forms or let "the counselor" fill out forms for you.
Be sure to talk with an attorney before signing anything that transfers
the title of your home to another party.
5. If it
sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
If
you feel you may be the target or victim of foreclosure fraud, trust
your instincts and seek help. For tips on spotting scam artists,
visit the Federal Trade Commission's webpage on foreclosure
rescue scams. Report suspicious schemes to your state
and local consumer protection agencies, which you can find on the
Federal
Citizen Information Center's Consumer Action Website.
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|
Sell
in May and Go Away.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
May 4, 2009
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Friday, 5.4.09
|
Gains 2-yr,
1-yr & 5 mo.
|
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 9,034.69
|
Dow: 8,358.88
|
-33% & -36%
& -7%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 1,632.21
|
Nasdaq: 1,743.75
|
-28% & -33%
& +7%
|
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 931.80
|
S&P: 893.60
|
-37% & -38%
& -4%
|
Hot
News on Cool Stocks Highlights!
418% gains on
U.S. Gold
87% of
the companies and positions listed below are earning profits
Massive
gains on the Cooling Off List, and some new opportunities highlighted
TipsTraders
still has me ranked as #11, above over 830 A-list pundits
Wall Street
Lows on March 9, 2009:
Dow Jones Industrial
Average: 6547
NASDAQ
Composite Index: 1269
S&P
500 Index: 677
Market
Update: It
is important to note that NASDAQ has been kicking assets on the
Dow and S&P all year. In the ongoing race to the bottom in 2009,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average (aka the Bailout Index) has lost
7%, the S&P500 has lost 4%, while NASDAQ is actually UP 7% since
January. NASDAQ is also trouncing the returns of Warren Buffet’s
Berkshire Hathaway fund, which is shadowing the returns of the S&P500,
so far this year.
Performance
of NASDAQ, DJIA, S&P500 and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) since
January 1, 2009

Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com
 |
| Photo:
Stacie Isabella Turk. © 2008. Ribbonhead.com Stylist/Makeup:
Arlene Hylton-Campbell |
The current
rally has investors absolutely gleeful, but it defies logic and
thus, in my view, is probably going to run out of steam sooner rather
than later. You’ll see below, that I’ve removed (taken profits on)
most of the companies off of the Hot List and have more than a few
highlighted on the Cooling Off list (where I put companies that
I expect to lose value).
It’s difficult
to imagine a long-term market love fest, when faced with the dismal
-6.1% advance GDP growth report which the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA.gov) released on April 29, 2009. We still have to endure the
Treasury’s Bank Stress Test results on May 7, 2009. And beyond that,
there is the larger issue of the availability of credit for distressed
corporations. Most of the casinos in Vegas, many airlines, many
auto manufacturers, etc. will need dough to rise again, and those
with the dough are being vilified these days when they ride to the
rescue. Just about every market (outside of Internet advertising,
so read the "Hulu" article) is suffering from weaker sales
and needs to ride through the storm on credit.
The investment
bankers and economists that I spoke with at the 2009 Milken Global
Conference expressed grave concern (as in graveyard) over the Administration’s
handling of the Chrysler bankruptcy. What creditor will want to
loan money to distressed corporations when they lose priority positioning
in the reorganization process? Should an investor be called a vulture
when s/he rides in to save the day with emergency funding (demanding
a higher return for taking on the colossal risk) after many years
of mismanagement and negative operations that resulted from unions,
employees and management not making great products in a sustainable
way?
Corporations
founded before 1980 promised pensions and health benefits to employees
that they are now unable to deliver on. When they promised those
benefits, the average person died at 64, one year before retirement.
Now people live beyond 80. And health care costs are more expensive
in the last six months of life than many people earn in a lifetime.
This is a legacy, social issue that no one in the government has
been willing to address – which we all need to pull together to
solve. However, demonizing profits, business and capital lenders
will not lead to freedom, comfort, peace, love and understanding.
Money is the fuel of innovation. It is not evil, unless it is used
for evil.
And money is
not at the root of the pension crisis and aging of America. Health
is. We are healthier and more beautiful today than we’ve ever been.
80 is the new 60. 60 is the new 40. And our expectations of what
life is, what fun is and how mighty we want to make our nation could
be the only solution necessary to switch America out of the graying
nation, into the greatest nation once again. The war between labor
and corporations is fueling our own demise. Corporations need great
employees to make the most innovative products and services necessary
to live in and co-create the best planet in the solar system. That
is what America was built upon.
Free markets
have proven to be the best fuel for innovation and prosperity known
on the planet. Nationalization (Communism) was a resounding failure.
Whether Chrysler is owned by the U.S. government, in cooperation
with the unions, Fiat and the Canadian government, in the absence
of fundamental business practices, including the preservation of
lending rights, it is impossible for the business to be viable.
And even if the business can be kept "alive," the soil
is not ripe for innovation, which is what America has prided itself
in since the birth of our nation.
I have been
reporting on the pension problems since the inception of my ezine
in 2002, and my understanding of how that issue plays in the general
marketplace is a large part of my success over the last decade.
Pensions and health care costs are the fundamental reason why the
U.S. is in a stalled economy. The stock market is worth less this
year than it was a decade ago. It is the fundamental reason why
the NASDAQ, where companies founded after 1980 (and use 401ks instead
of pensions) are concentrated, is outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial
Average by a large margin this year and will continue to going forward.
Over 10% of the Dow is still concentrated in companies that are
being bailed out, like Citigroup, Bank of America and General Motors.
Fannie Mae, AIG and Phillip Morris tobacco company were components
of the 30-component index in 2008.
This is why
you must get smart with regard to your nest egg. The only hope of
resurrecting your portfolio is to:
- Know what
you own
- Avoid the
Bailout Index
- Employ Exchange
Traded Funds, not mutual funds
- Keep a percentage
equal to your age safe (and know what "safe" is)
- Have an
annual rebalancing strategy
Most money managers
and CFPs are still relying on Buy and Hold strategies that DO NOT
WORK in a slow growth environment. It is ESSENTIAL that you stop
employing blind faith and get educated now. These are the strategies
that I teach in my retreats. It saves nest eggs, will bring you
returns and help to create a better world in the bargain. Yes, you
can get rich and enrich.
There are only
four seats available at the June 11-13, 2009 Get Rich and Green
retreat. I highly recommend that you take a look at the flyer on
the home page at NataliePace.com and then call 866.476.7442 immediately
to register for your seat. Current subscribers receive early bird
pricing, if you register before May 15, 2009. You will also receive
a 12-month premium subscription, valued at $2000 per person. Premium
subscribers receive ongoing support through my monthly ezine, mid-month
update and quarterly teleconferences.
Most professionals
spend over a quarter of a million dollars educating themselves to
become income earners. You can spend a small fraction of that to
become a smart investor, so that your money earns gains while you
sleep, instead of watching it slip through your fingers down the
drain!
At minimum,
please be sure to read my new book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, to ensure that you
learn the only strategies that have worked for the last decade on
Wall Street. And do your friends a favor. Pass this note over to
them also!
Track
Record of our Reporting
While the markets
have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have
a winning track record – in bear and bull market years. 72
positions listed below – 87% -- have delivered impressive gains
over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
is trading lower than it was ten years ago! Only eleven
of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting,
which is quite impressive given the horrible market drop of this
fall. Additionally, in 2008, nineteen out of 27 companies that were
featured in our monthly articles and stock report cards posted strong
gains. That is also a 77% winning track record! (We are really coming
up with the winning 7s this year.)
See the article,
"New
Year. New You. New Nest Egg," in Vol. 6, Issue 1, for
the chart and more details.
Yes, many, but
not all, of our top performers in 2008 and 2009 are shorts, which
is why we added options training to the retreat. Remember that the
trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your profits early and often in this volatile, down-trending year.
3 out
of 6 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains
(Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.
MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of
News Corp’s success with shareholders that year. So three
out of six are superperformers, one (Myspace) performed well above
the market. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall
Street. (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and
featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)
TipsTraders.com
continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with
their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied
the #1 position. Currently, I’m ranked #11 for 2008. Some of our
best picks include: Google (GOOG) +545%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio
Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
+107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in
2008 were put options – on the Cooling Off list. Look there for
details on the incredible gains options investors enjoyed on Wells
Fargo, Fortress Investment Group, Sears Holding, Fannie Mae, Toll
Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.
Market
Movers:
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the
4.29.09 press release, the Federal Reserve Board further elaborated
on the reasoning behind the rock bottom rates, writing: "Although
the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting,
partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic
activity is likely to remain weak for a time… Moreover, the Committee
sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates
that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer
term."
That is Fed-speak
for "We are experiencing deflation now as retailers try to
stay afloat by selling everything and the kitchen sink at rock-bottom
prices." Economists worry that deflation is the immediate concern,
but more importantly that inflation could be a big issue going forward
once the economy starts to recover.
The Milken
Institute estimates that the bailout to date has cost
the taxpayer $9.9 trillion.
The next meeting
takes place on June 23-24, 2009.
Advance
GDP growth rates for 1Q 2009 were a decline of -6.1%. The
economy contracted at -6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008.
Preliminary
GDP growth estimates for 1Q 2009 will be released on May 29, 2009
at 8:30 a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall
Street. Negative GDP tends to cause sell-offs in the stock markets.
Robust GDP growth reports spark rallies. Since the advance estimates
were so dismal, it’s hard to imagine a big downside surprise. For
more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the press
release of the April 28-29, 2009 FOMC meeting for yourself?
You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2009 calendar is: June 23-24, 2009
(Tuesday-Wednesday), August 11-12, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), September
22-23, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), November 3-4, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
December 15-16, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), January 26-27, 2010 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more:
Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There
are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, life coaches, economists, respected money gurus,
real estate veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates of
the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication
date of our next ezine. Get more information on how to best use
our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu
link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
Don’t mIssue
the Premium Subscriber’s teleconference with Natalie Pace
on Wednesday, May 6, 2009 at 5:00 p.m. PT (8:00 p.m. ET).
Get call-in instructions on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board. This
teleconference is open to all subscribers. Be sure to write down
the call-in information now. You will need your passwords!
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. This month, with Mother’s Day and the upheaval
in the auto industry, we’re asking what you think Mom most wants
and how you would have handled the Chrysler bankruptcy. Cast your
vote on our survey page!
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.25% (main refinancing), 2.25% (marginal lending)
and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement is scheduled for May 7, 2009 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual
stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
None
Profit-Taking
(Take your profits early and often):
HOKU (HOKU)
+50%
KCI
Concepts (KCI) +18%
LDK (LDK) +79%
Sociedad de Quimica (SQM) +47%
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
Altair Nanotechnologies
(ALTI) 4.13.09
American
Superconductor (AMSC) 4.13.09
Citigroup (C) on 3.15.09
eBay (EBAY) 4.13.09
Eastern European Fund (EUROX) 4.13.09
FMC Corporation (FMC) 5.4.09
General Electric (GE) 4.13.09
Genentech (DNA) on 3.15.09
Google (GOOG) 4.13.09
Maxwell (MXWL) 4.13.09
MEMC Electronics (WFR) 4.13.09
Microsoft (MSFT) 4.13.09
OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) on 3.15.09
PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio (PZD) on 5.4.09
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) +60%
Rio Tinto (RTP) on 4.1.09
Satcon (SATC) 4.13.09
Sunpower (SPWRA) 5.4.09
Suntech (STP) 4.13.09
TREMX 5.4.09
Trina Solar (TSL) 4.13.09
Westpac (WBK) 4.13.09
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price 5.4.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Conergy
Based out of Germany
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
CEYHF
|
$22.50
$1.55 (12.1.08)
|
$1.12
|
$96.14
$.41
|
-95% &
-28%
|
|
See the Wind
Power article
in Vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech
Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems
integration. On 3.26.09, announced that company would be delaying
publication of 2008 financial statements, which were originally
due on March 27, 2009. Reason is that they are in negotiation
with an important supplier and the "outcome of these
discussions has a considerable effect on the annual results."
|
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$11.02
$1.51 (12.1.08)
|
$1.34
|
$14.98
$0.50
|
-88% &
-11%
|
|
EMCORE Corp (EMCORE) is a provider
of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems
for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial
solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments:
Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Was awarded an R&D 100
award by R&D Magazine for the IMM solar cell as one of
the most innovative technologies of 2008.
Class action lawsuit was filed
on 2.11.09 declaring that Emcore mislead investors about its
earnings, backlog, customers, etc.
On June 18, 2008, Emcore announced
that IBM used 55 miles of optical fiber EMCORE Connects Cables
to build Roadrunner HPC system.
2Q 2009 results are going to
be released on May 11, 2009 after markets close. Preliminary
1Q 2009 results (on 2.9.09): Revenue for the first quarter
of fiscal 2009 was $54.1 million, an increase of $7.2 million,
or 15%, from $46.9 million reported in the same period last
year and a decrease of $6.5 million, or 11%, from $60.6 million
reported in the immediately preceding quarter. At December
31, 2008, cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and available
for sale securities totaled approximately $18.8 million, working
capital totaled $75.4 million, and outstanding loans under
the Company's $25 million secured line of credit with Bank
of America totaled $15.4 million. Shortly after the close
of the first quarter, the Company sold its remaining interests
in Entech Solar, Inc. (formerly named WorldWater and Solar
Technologies Corporation) for $11.4 million in cash, which
is not reflected in the quarter-end cash balance. During the
first quarter, the Company freed up $2.6 million in cash that
was previously tied up in auction rate securities. As previously
disclosed, the Company has received indications of interest
from several investors regarding a minority equity investment
directly into the Company's wholly-owned Photovoltaics subsidiary
which would serve as an initial step towards a potential spin
off of that business. The Company's management is aggressively
pursuing these opportunities. Cost Reduction Initiatives:
Over the last three months, the Company has implemented a
number of cost reduction initiatives including:
* A reduction in personnel totaling
approximately 160 people, or 17% of the total workforce, resulting
in annualized cost savings of approximately $9 million
* A significant reduction in the
FY 2008 employee bonus plan payouts
* The elimination of all FY 2009
employee merit increases
* Significant reductions in capital
expenditures
* Restrictions on employee travel
and other discretionary expenditures
On a GAAP basis, the consolidated
net loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was $53.4 million,
an increase of $39.0 million from $14.4 million reported in
the same period last year and an increase of $12.2 million
from $41.2 million reported in the preceding quarter.
Order Backlog: As of December 31,
2008, the company had an order backlog of approximately $53.2
million. The order backlog is defined as purchase orders or
supply agreements accepted by the Company with expected product
delivery and / or services to be performed within the next
twelve months. The December 31, 2008 order backlog is comprised
of $30.2 million related to our Photovoltaics segment and
$23.0 million related to our Fiber Optics segment.
|
|
Ener1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$6.06
$5.75 (4.15.09)
|
$6.01
|
$9.49
$2.35
|
Flat &
+5%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, Issue 4. HEV is the only lithium-ion battery
manufacturer with commercial-scale production facilities in
the United States of automotive grade quality. On April 1,
2009, HEV announced its membership to the newly launched Energy
Systems Network (ESN), an Indiana-based consortium bringing
together national energy leaders, manufacturing executives,
state officials and civic leaders to create new economic opportunities
and strengthen energy independence by advancing the electric
drive vehicle industry.
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$2.00
(3.2.09)
|
$3.00
|
$14.55
$2.06
|
-63% &
50%
|
|
Take your profits early and
often! If you made 50% gains, consider cashing in your profits.
Read "The
Sunny
Side,"
Vol. 6, Issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, Issue 10.
Annual report is issued in June
of each year. Announced 3Q 2009 earnings on January 28,
2009: Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 $767,000.
GAAP Net loss for the quarter was -$863,000, or -$0.04 per
diluted share. 4Q and FY 2009 earnings should be published
in June.
"We are proud to have successfully
secured PPA financing for the Hawaii State government's first
major solar power installation, despite notable turbulence
in the finance markets. And, we are pleased with our continued
progress in our solar installation business. We have dramatically
increased the aggregate amount of PV installed compared to
FY 2008, and are beginning to see a backlog of projects in
the design phase for future construction," according to Dustin
Shindo, Chairman and CEO.
Commenting on the Idaho polysilicon
manufacturing facility, ""We continue actively working
to mitigate the impact of delayed customer prepayments, but
now expect that this may result in a shift of our planned
production demonstration from the first quarter of calendar
year 2009 to the second quarter of calendar year 2009," Mr.
Shindo said. "Looking ahead, this may also cause us to shift
our planned first commercial shipment from the first half
of 2009 to the second half of 2009. As before, we plan to
ramp-up production throughout the second half of calendar
year 2009 and into calendar year 2010, when we expect to reach
full production capability. We expect this revised schedule
will still allow us to meet all delivery obligations to our
current customers, and we will continue managing our project
to ensure this remains the case."
Contracted to build a polysilicon
facility in Idaho capable of producing up to 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. The first
six of 28 polysilicon reactors were delivered to Pocatello
on January 14, 2009, with the next ten scheduled for delivery
on March 2009.
|
|
Kinetic Concepts, Inc.
|
No
|
KCI
|
$38.81
$21.05
(12.1.08)
|
$24.90
|
$66.77
$18.50
|
-36% &
+18%
|
|
Read the article, "Beauty
is Skin Deep,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 5. If you made a profit of 18%, take your
profits early and often!
REPORTED 1Q 2009 EARNINGS ON 4.21.09.
2009 total revenue of $470.1 million, an increase of 12% from
the first quarter of 2008. Net earnings: $40 million, a 42%
decrease from the prior year. Gross profit margin is 52%.
Cash and cash equivalents: $180
million.
|
|
LDK Solar
GREEN
|
Yes
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$8.84
|
$76.75
$3.75
|
-70% &
+79%
|
|
Read the articles, "Green..."
in Vol. 6, Issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 4.
Take your profits early and
often! If you made 79% gains, take your profits.
On 4.15.09, LDK announced the company
had secured a loan for RMB 200 million (equivalent to approximately
US$29 million) from China Development Bank and received approval
for a RMB 1 billion (equivalent to approximately US$146 million)
credit line from Agricultural Development Bank of China. LDK
Solar now has unused credit facilities totaling US$785 million.
4Q and FY results on 3.11.09: Fiscal
year 2008 revenue of $1.6 billion, up 214% year-over-year.
Annualized wafer production capacity expanded by over 1 GW,
reaching 1.46 GW at the end of 2008; Signed 14 long-term wafer
supply agreements during the year, achieving a sales backlog
of over 14 GW through 2018.
Net sales for the fourth quarter
of fiscal 2008 were $426.6 million, down 21.3% from $541.8
million for the third quarter of fiscal 2008, and up 121%
from $192.8 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007.
During the fourth quarter, LDK Solar recorded a write-down
of $216.7 million against the cost of inventories for a decline
in net realizable value of inventories resulting from the
rapid markeldkt price decline for solar wafers.
LDK Solar ended fiscal 2008 with
$255.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and $83.4 million
in short-term pledged bank deposits. "Despite its challenges,
2008 was a year of impressive and rapid growth for LDK Solar,"
stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar.
|
|
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd.
|
No
|
MPEL
|
$6.54
|
$5.77
|
$19.09
$2.31
|
-12%
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
(Vol. 5, Issue 10). Operates
Crown, a 6- star Resort and Casino in Macau, the trendy Mocha
slot machine cafes and is developing City of Dreams in Macau,
with Hard Rock, Hyatt and Dragone Entertainment. CEO/Chairman
Lawrence Ho is the son of Macau gambling billionaire Stanley
Ho.
Upgraded to NASDAQ Global Select
Market on 1.2.09.
On 3.31.09, the Company recorded
annual earnings of $1.4 billion (over $360 million last year)
and a profit of $1.2 million.
Cash and cash equivalents are at
$815 million.
Melco Crown Gaming has a rating
of "BB" by Standard & Poor’s and a rating of
"Ba3" by Moody’s Investors Service. For future borrowings,
any decrease in our corporate rating could result in an increase
in borrowing costs.
The City of Dreams project in Macau
looks to be in good shape and is scheduled to open in the
"first half of 2009." Melco CEO and co-Chairman
Lawrence Ho (age 31) is the son of one Macau’s most powerful
casino monopolists over the past century – the legendary Stanley
Ho. Deep pockets and rich connections.
According to the Melco press release:
Combining electrifying entertainment, stylish nightclubs,
a diverse array of accommodation, regional and international
dining, world-class shopping and a spacious and contemporary
casino, City of Dreams will usher in a new era of gaming and
entertainment when it opens in Cotai during the first half
of 2009. The resort brings together a dream team of world-renowned
brands such as Crown, Grand Hyatt, Hard Rock and Dragone to
create an exceptional entertainment experience that will appeal
to the broadest spectrum of visitors from around Asia and
the world.
|
|
New Zealand Dollar currency ETF
by WisdomTree
|
No
|
BNZ
|
$25.17
$18.49
(12.1.08)
|
$19.63
|
$25.31
$16.67
|
-21% &
+7%
|
|
Read the article, "Foreign
Investing:
From BRICs to Barbeys,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand
is the new attraction on the world currency markets.
|
|
Smith & Nephew
London, England
RISK: MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
SNN
|
$55.78
$34.92
(12.1.08)
|
$35.58
|
$69.20
$30.27
|
-36% &
+2%
|
|
Announced full year earnings on
February 12, 2009: $3.8 billion in earnings. Read
the article in Vol.
4, issue 7.
The company is based out of London, England. SNN has a piece
of an exploding marketplace in the hip resurfacing business
with its premiere product, called the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing
System. Hip resurfacing is far less invasive than the total
hip replacement and even has athletes like Floyd Landis and
Gary Kobat back competing in running and biking within a year
of surgery!
On 1.30.09, Smith & Nephew,
Inc. (NYSE: SNN, LSE: SN) announced that its Orthopaedics
Reconstruction Division has entered into a grant administration
agreement with the Orthopaedic Research and Education Foundation
(OREF). This should help training and adoption of the innovative
orthopaedic products that SNN has been pioneering.
|
|
Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$25.21
$21.51
(12.1.08)
|
$31.65
|
$59.41
$12.98
|
-26% &
+47%
|
|
Read the article, Treasure
Hunting, in Vol.
5, Issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with Li,"
from Vol. 6, Issue 4.
Take your profits early and
often! If you made 47% gains, consider cashing in your profits.
4Q & FY 2008 earnings on 2.24.09:
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) (NYSE: SQM;
Santiago Stock Exchange: SQM-B, SQM-A) reported Revenues for
2008 totaled US$1,774.1 million, representing growth of 49.4%
over the US$1,187.5 million reported in 2007.
SQM's Chief Executive Officer,
Patricio Contesse, stated, "SQM is pleased to announce yet
another record year of growth in our financial results in
spite of global economic uncertainty. Since 2000, our consolidated
revenues have grown at a CAGR of 20% while our bottom line
has expanded at a CAGR of 50% due in large part to our strategic
position in our core markets and our continued commitment
to efficiency," commented Patricio Contesse, the Company's
Chief Executive Officer. He added, "In general, SQM benefited
substantially this year from favorable pricing conditions
in Specialty Plant Nutrition and from higher sales volumes
in Iodine and Derivatives. Looking forward, the unprecedented
turmoil in global markets seen during the last part of the
year will likely pose new challenges for the Company in 2009.
We believe, however, that the underlying fundamentals in our
core business lines remain solid and will allow us to face
potential challenges."
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado USA
RISK: VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$.50
|
$2.06
|
$7.04
$.38
|
-59% &
+418%
|
|
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing
gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based
in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining
company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should
spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very
risky.
NOTE: The mantra this year continues
to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve quadrupled
your money, consider taking some of your profits.
You’ll want to make sure you have
shares of U.S. Gold going forward as well, however. Gold should
be a great hedge against inflation in the future. (Right now,
the Feds are concerned about deflation, but inflation could
be on the 12-18 month horizon.)
The Company's primary objective
in Nevada is to discover the next Cortez Hills deposit. Cortez
Hills, owned by the world's largest gold producer, is Nevada's
largest gold discovery of the past decade and located just
10 miles (16 km) north of U.S. Gold. They also have mines
in Mexico that are promising high grade gold and silver ore.
This is an exploration company, not a mining company. They
don’t produce gold at this time.
Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol.
3, Issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com
channel.
A U.S. Gold company spokesperson
says that their capital position is secure, and that they
have trimmed costs to preserve capital in 2009. Company may
need more capital in 2009 (according to the bean counters),
however, so make sure that you’re buying near the 52-week
low to maximize your upside potential.
|
Recently
Deleted Companies 2008/2009:
Echelon +20%,
GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson
+10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%,
Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08)
+40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek
(deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was
deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking
on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken
on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1
and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1 and
12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits
20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On
2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de
Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42%
on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%.
OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto
was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following
companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%),
GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC
(+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%)
and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%,
AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted
4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google
+9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%,
SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpack
+42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19%
gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with
50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
Altair Nanotechnologies
(ALTI)
American
Superconductor (AMSC)
Citigroup (C) on 3.15.09
eBay 4.13.09
EUROX 4.13.09
FMC Corp. 5.4.09
GE 4.13.09
Genentech on 3.15.09
Google 4.13.09
Maxwell 4.13.09
MEMC Electronics 4.13.09
Microsoft 4.13.09
OSI Pharmaceuticals on 3.15.09
PowerShares Clean Tech ETF (PZD) on 5.4.09
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) on 5.4.09
Rio Tinto on 4.1.09
Satcon 4.13.09
Sunpower (SPWRA) 5.4.09
Suntech Power Holdings 4.13.09
TREMX 5.4.09
Trina Solar 4.13.09
Westpac 4.13.09
Wisdom Tree 5.4.09
|
Altair Nanotechnology
RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.99
$0.67 (3.13.09)
|
$1.40
|
$5.45
$.60
|
-30%
+209%
|
|
Read the article on Electric
Cars
in Vol. 4, Issue 6.
Take your profits early and
often! If you doubled your money, take your gains.
Earnings on 3.11.09: For the year
ended December 31, 2008, the Company reported revenues of
$5.7 million, down from $9.1 million for 2007. The net loss
was $29.1 million, or 34 cents per share, compared to a net
loss of $31.5 million, or 45 cents per share, for 2007. The
Company disclosed that as a result of the Company not achieving
its 2008 financial targets, no bonuses were paid to middle
and senior level managers.
"The markets for clean energy storage
systems for power-dependent applications within smart-grid,
renewable integration, military, and transportation are developing,"
said Dr. Terry Copeland, president and CEO of Altairnano.
"However, there is no question that current economic conditions
have delayed purchasing decisions. On a positive note, several
sections of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
are directed at those very markets and we anticipate those
funds will help accelerate the adoption of advanced energy
storage systems."
The Company's cash and cash equivalents
decreased by $22.1 million, from $50.2 million at December
31, 2007 to $28.1 million at December 31, 2008.
|
|
American Superconductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$25.96
$11.31 (12.1.08)
|
$19.15
|
$47.53
$8.22
|
-26% &
+70%
|
|
NOTE: If you made 70% ROI, the
mantra this year continues to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND
OFTEN.
Read the article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide,"
in Vol. 4, Issue 12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens
(NYSE: SI), Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High
Temperature Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit
150 times more energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions.
This enables electric utilities to replace multiple conventional
copper cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable
underground real estate available for other uses – including
future power upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents
a multi-billion-dollar annual opportunity, but their power
converters are also in the exploding marketplace of wind turbines
and fuel cells. American Superconductor’s backlog of orders
exceeds $634 million, with growth primarily driven by the
wind energy market. AMSC expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace
to account for up to 50% of sales in fiscal year 2007.
Revenues for the third quarter
of fiscal 2008 (released on 2.4.09) were $41.3 million, a
27 percent increase over $32.6 million in revenues for the
third quarter of fiscal 2007. Gross margin for the third quarter
of fiscal 2008 was 23.2 percent, which compares with 30.9
percent for the third quarter of fiscal 2007. The company’s
net loss for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 was $7.8 million,
or $0.18 per share. This compares with a net loss for the
third quarter of fiscal 2007 of $7.3 million, or $0.18 per
share.
Cash, cash equivalents, marketable
securities and restricted cash at December 31, 2008 were $122.6
million. The company reported backlog as of December 31, 2008
of approximately $602 million compared with $597 million as
of September 30, 2008 and $168 million as of December 31,
2007.
"Our two core growth drivers
– the Chinese wind power market and the U.S. power grid market
– remained strong through our third fiscal quarter, a trend
we expect to continue for the foreseeable future," said
Greg Yurek, AMSC’s founder and chief executive officer. "Wind
continues to be our growth engine; however, more than $27
million of our $46 million in third-quarter bookings were
for our D-VAR® Smart Grid solutions. With these new orders,
we now have more than $175 million out of the total of $602
million in backlog that we expect to recognize as revenue
in fiscal 2009. Our backlog position for both fiscal 2009
and the following two fiscal years and the strength of our
core markets position us for strong growth in fiscal 2009
and beyond."
"We expect to generate
our first GAAP profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008,"
said David Henry, senior vice president and chief financial
officer. "While the investments we intend to make
in fiscal 2009 to help achieve our long-term growth plans
may limit us to earnings of a few cents per share for full
fiscal 2009, profitability is our top priority," Henry
concluded.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
C
|
$1.25
|
$2.33
(3.16.09)
|
$27.35
$.97
|
+86%
|
|
Bailed out by the Feds November
2008. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks
for now. However, believe there will be a bounce on Citi since
the Feds aren’t going to let it go under… Forward P/E is 2.
|
|
eBay
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
eBAY
|
$14.27
$10.36 (3.2.09)
|
$15.02
|
$40.73
$10.91
|
+5% &
+45%
|
|
Take your profits early and
often! Took off the Hot List on 4.13.09.
Owns Skype. The growth potential
there is huge… In fact, on 3.31.09, Skype announced that there
is an Application available for iPhone now and that the Blackberry
app will be available as a free download in May. Also note
that eBay owns Paypal, which is a popular way to pay when
credit cards are an issue, as they are becoming.
So… eBay has a number of companies
that are "staples" in a recession. Who can live
without their phone these days? You can live in your car,
but without a phone? Oh vey!
4Q and FY 2008 results on 1.21.09:
For the full year, eBay Inc. posted $8.54 billion in revenue,
net income on a GAAP basis of $1.78 billion or $1.36 per diluted
share.
The company’s cash and cash equivalents
totaled $3.19 billion at December 31, 2008, compared to $4.22
billion at December 31, 2007.
|
|
U.S. Global Investors Eastern European
mutual fund
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$6.33
|
$5.62
|
$19.84
$5.27
|
-11%
|
|
Lots of Russian oil and gas. New
holdings. Took off the Hot List on 4.13.09.
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$42.99
|
$50.99
|
$80.23
$28.53
|
+19%
|
|
Deleted on 5.4.09. Profit-taking.
Still love the company! Think the markets remain challenging.
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, Issue 4.
|
|
General Electric
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
GE
|
$26.69
$7.70 (3.2.09)
|
$11.33
|
$42.15
$10.66
|
-56% &
+47%
|
|
Deleted 4.13.09.
GE is a big presence in renewable
energy these days. Very green… Should benefit from an Obama
Presidency. On the other hand, major pension plan and OPEB
obligations. Additionally, GE had investments with Madoff
Hedge Fund. Annual report on 2.18.09: Revenues of $182.5 Billion,
over $172 in 2007. Net earnings = $17.4 billion. Cash and
cash equivalents = $48 billion.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$73.00
|
$94.20
(3.13.09)
|
$99.14
$65.35
|
+29%
|
|
Roche is buying Genentech for $95/share.
Cool to take your profits now. Companies issued a press release
on 3.12.09. (btw: This is a premium on the hostile bid of
$86.50 per share.)
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$341.43
|
$372.50
|
$747.24
$247.30
|
+9%
|
|
Deleted 4.13.09. 4th
quarter and year-end results January 22, 2009: Google
reported revenues of $5.70 billion for the quarter ended December
31, 2008, an increase of 18% compared to the fourth quarter
of 2007 and an increase of 3% compared to the third quarter
of 2008. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of 2008 was
$382 million as compared to $1.29 billion in the third quarter
of 2008. As of December 31, 2008, cash, cash equivalents,
and short-term marketable securities were $15.85 billion.
On a worldwide basis, Google employed
20,222 full-time employees as of December 31, 2008, up from
20,123 full-time employees as of September 30, 2008.
Google is such a popular stock,
and is a New Blue Chip that can help ground and stabilize
your nest egg. And now, finally, it is trading at a 4-year
low! This marketplace may not be through with its correction,
however, even though, if you buy now, you are getting it for
over half off what investors were willing to pay in 2007!
I have not highlighted Google for a reason, because 2009 is
predicted to be a bear of a year. Google is a better bet than
the Bailout Index (Dow Jones Industrial Average). Be cautious
jumping in too early when prices could be lower across the
board in a few months.
|
|
Maxwell
|
No
|
MXWL
|
$7.06
|
$8.80
|
$14.75
$4.00
|
+25%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, Issue 4. Take your profits early and often! Maxwell
announced on 3.26.09 that they’ve hired a new CFO -- Kevin
S. Royal, who used to be CFO of Blue Coat Systems Inc, effective
April 20, 2009.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
GREEN
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
WFR
|
$28.26
$12.75
|
$18.94
|
$96.08
$10.00
|
-33% &
+49%
|
|
Deleted on 4.13.09. MEMC is
projecting that the 1st quarter 2009 results could
be as much as 50% lower than 4Q 2008.
MEMC was added to the S&P
500 in August of 2007. Read the "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in Vol. 3, Issue 10 and "Green"
in Vol. 6, Issue 2. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has
been able to price its product and pick its customers accordingly.
Volatile marketplace. Great company. With more silicon manufacturing
companies coming online this year and next (like HOKU Scientific),
MEMC’s operating margins are down to 19% this year, from 33%
last year.
1.22.09 reported 4Q and FY earnings:
For the full year ended December 31, 2008, the company's net
sales increased by 4.3% to $2.00 billion, compared to $1.92
billion in 2007. Cash and investment balances grew by $92.3
million to over $1.4 billion. Net income was $390 million,
compared to $826 million a year ago.
Worse was the interim CEO’s announcement
that "Our current view of the markets we serve indicates
that first quarter 2009 revenue could decline by as much as
50% from the fourth quarter of 2008." 1Q 2009 results
should be released the first week in May of 2009.
Ahmad Chatila was tapped as the
new CEO and president on 2.5.09. He previously worked as an
executive vice president for Cypress Semiconductor Corp.'s
memory and imaging division and as the company's head of global
manufacturing. Wall Street liked the appointment and shares
soared on the news.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$15.91
|
$19.67
|
$32.10
$14.87
|
+24%
|
|
DELETED 4.13.09. Great Blue
Chip for your Long Term Portfolio. 1.22.09 2Q earnings: Microsoft
Corp. announced revenue of $16.63 billion for the second quarter
ended Dec. 31, 2008, a 2% increase over the same period of
the prior year. $4.17 billion in net income.
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
RISK: HIGH (U.S.)
2005 Company of the Year
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$35.95
|
$38.54
(3.13.09)
|
$53.71
$31.33
|
+7%
|
|
NataliePace.com’s 2005
Company of the Year.
Read Vol. 1, Issue 56. OSI Pharmaceuticals was added to the
NASDAQ Q-50 Index(sm) (Nasdaq:NXTQ) on September 22, 2008.
Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer
pill," and sales have been exploding. Teva Pharma filed
an application with the FDA to launch a generic version of
Tarceva, which OSIP has challenged. If Teva prevails in court,
the original patent period could be reduced to November 18,
2009. There is a lot is at stake here, which overshadows the
tremendous Full Year earnings report that OSIP released on
2.27.09. Now that Genentech (OSIP’s partner on Tarceva) has
been bought by Roche, the upside on this might have been realized,
given the vulnerability of a one-drug company in a harsh economic
climate with Goliath pharmaceutical companies dying to sell
the generic.
4Q and FY 2008 earnings on 2.27.09:
Revenue was $379 million, over $341 million in 2007. Net income
was $467 million compared with net income of $103 for 2007.
|
|
PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio
|
No
|
PZD
|
$33.22
|
$20.50
|
$36.93
$12.84
|
-38%
|
|
The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio
(Fund) tracks the Cleantech Index™ (ticker: CTIUS),
which is designed to track the leading cleantech companies,
from a broad range of industry sectors, that offer the best
investment returns. 'Cleantech' companies derive the majority
of their business from knowledge-based products or services
that improve productivity and/or product performance while
reducing total costs, energy and resource consumption, pollution,
toxicity, etc. Top holdings as of 2.13.09 include: First Solar,
Siemens, Vestas, Auto Desk, Corning.
See Green
Your Portfolio
article in Vol. 5, Issue 9 and "Green..."
in Vol. 6, Issue 2.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy
Portfolio
|
No
|
PBW
|
$19.92
$6.02
(3.2.09)
|
$9.64
|
$28.84
$6.02
|
-52% &
+60%
|
|
Exchange Traded Fund in the green,
clean, renewable energy space. See Green
Your Portfolio
article in Vol. 5, Issue 9 and "Green..."
in Vol. 6, Issue 2.
Take your profits early and
often! If you made 60% gains, take your profits.
Top holdings as of 2.13.09 include:
JA Solar, Trina Solar, Yingli, Zoltek, Suntech, Evergreen…
|
|
Rio Tinto
(UK based mining company)
|
No
|
RTP
|
$138.69
$84.68
(12.1.08)
|
$141.14
|
$558.65
$59.20
|
+2% &
+67%
|
|
If you made 67% gains,
take your profits early and often is the theme in 2009!
See "Gold
is a 4-Letter Word,"
Vol. 5, Issue 11. $22.3 billion EBITDA and net earnings of
$3.7 billion announced on 2.12.09. Signed deal with Chinese
company same day. The major strategic partnership with Chinalco
provides additional flexibility in addressing the Group's
commitment to reduce net debt by a further $10 billion by
end of 2009. Net debt reduced by $6.5 billion to $38.7 billion
at 31 December 2008. The transaction is subject to approval
by the shareholders of Rio Tinto, governments and other regulators.
Australia deferred its approval of the deal for 90 days on
3.15.09.
|
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.62
$1.15
(3.2.09)
|
$1.92
|
$3.14
$1.30
|
+19% &
+67%
|
|
Deleted from Hot News on 4.13.09.
Great company in emerging industry, but marketplace is
volatile and down-trending. Clean Tech. Satcon is a developer
and supplier of power management and system architecture solutions
for the alternative energy and distributed power markets.
This is a company that could
stand to benefit greatly from Obama’s Clean Energy Cash Infusion.
Taking our profits early and often…
Announced 4Q and FY earnings on
3.5.09. Satcon reported revenue for the fourth quarter of
$19.3 million, up from $12.2 million in the fourth quarter
of fiscal 2007. For the full year 2008, revenue grew 49% to
$62.5 million from $42.0 million in the twelve months ended
2007. Fourth-quarter 2008 gross margin was 24%, compared with
-3% in the same period of 2007.
Net loss from continuing operations
for the fourth quarter was approximately $0.6 million, compared
with $7.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2007. Fourth-quarter
2008 net loss included restructuring costs of $0.3 million,
offset by approximately $1.1 million related to the valuation
of the company’s warrant liabilities. For the twelve months
ended December 31, 2008, net
loss from continuing operations was $12.3 million,
compared with a net loss from continuing operations of $16.6
million for the full year of 2007.
Cash and cash equivalents at December
31, 2008 were $10.0 million, compared with $10.5 million at
September 27, 2008.
The company reported an ending
backlog on December 31, 2008 of approximately $23 million,
compared with backlog of $37 million on September 27, 2008.
The decrease in backlog for the December quarter was due to
the impact of the challenging macroeconomic environment.
SatCon commercial grade inverters
are an integral part of Google's corporate headquarters in
Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system is the largest
commercial photovoltaic system in the United States. On 12.9.08
announced that Suntech had selected Satcon to help power a
1 megawatt (MW) solar energy installation hosted at The North
Face West Coast Distribution Center in Visalia, California
for Recurrent Energy.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$25.38
|
$30.26
|
$107.00
$18.50
|
+19%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny
Side"
in Vol. 6, Issue 3.
Announced 1Q earnings on April
23, 2009. Revenue for the 2009 first quarter was $214 million
and compares to revenues of $401 million in the fourth quarter
of 2008 and $274 million in the first quarter of last year.
Net loss was $5 million.
"The first quarter of 2009 was
the most challenging quarter we've seen since SunPower went
public in 2005," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO. "Our quarterly
performance was impacted by seasonality, the continuing effects
of the credit crisis and difficult economic conditions. Despite
these headwinds we were able to deliver strong gross margins
in our Components business and positive non-GAAP net income.
4.30.09: NJ’s largest utility,
Public Service Electric and Gas, just financed having Sunpower
install a 1.2-megawatt solar power system for Certified Steel
Co.'s 330,000-square-foot facility in Hamilton, NJ. The system
is due to be finished in July.
Sunpower just raised an additional
$417.6 million through issuance of 10,350,000 Class A shares
(at $22.00 per share) and 4.75% senior convertible debentures
due 2014. (4.30.09)
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
|
Yes
|
STP
|
$40.07
$5.50
(3.2.09)
|
$14.40
|
$90.00
$5.36
|
-64% &
+262%
|
|
NOTE: The mantra this year continues
to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve more than
doubled your money, consider taking your profits.
2007 and 2008 Company of the Year!
Read "Green"
in Vol. 6, Issue 2, "2008
Company of the Year,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 8 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 4. Suntech was the official solar sponsor
of the Beijing Olympics, our 2007
Company of the Year,
as well as our featured Company
of the Month in October of 2006. Go to vol 4, Issue
1 and Vol. 3 Issue 10 to access those articles.
4Q and FY 2008 results call on
February 18, 2009 at 8:00 a.m. ET. Total net revenues grew
42.7% year-over-year to $1,923.5 million. GAAP net income
for the full year was $111.0 million or $0.66 per ADS.
Achieved 1GW solar cell and
module production capacity. 4Q posted a loss, however, GAAP
net loss was $65.9 million, or negative $0.42 per diluted
American Depository Share (ADS). Net debt decreased by $273.7
million to $1,117.8 million as of December 31, 2008.
"We believe that we are now in
a position to service all avenues of solar demand globally,
including residential roof-top, commercial roof-top, ground
mounted and utility scale. In particular, our continued investment
in the U.S. should position us for strong growth in that key
market and its burgeoning utility-scale segment via our systems
integration unit, Suntech Energy Solutions, and our project
development joint venture, Gemini Solar," said Dr. Zhengrong
Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO.
Suntech was chosen to design and
construct a BIPV system totaling 3MW
on the China and Theme Pavilions at the World Expo Shanghai
2010. The project will be
the largest BIPV installation in China.
-- Suntech supplied 5MW of Suntech
solar panels for the largest solar plant
in the Middle East, a 10MW solar electricity system to power
Masdar City, the world's first carbon
neutral city being built in Abu
Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The solar system is being built
and designed by leading Abu
Dhabi based solar power system integrator, Enviromena
Power Systems.
|
|
T. Rowe Price Em Europe & Mediterranean
Mutual Fund
(International)
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.07
|
$9.97
|
$40.00
$6.55
|
-50%
|
|
Mutual fund holdings have shifted
from Eastern Europe emerging markets to Russian oil and gas
markets. Looking for best opportunity to cash out.
(4.13.09)
|
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$38.99
$5.95
(3.2.09)
|
$12.79
|
$73.06
$5.61
|
-67%
+215%
|
|
Read the articles, "Green"
in Vol. 6, Issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 4.
NOTE: The mantra this year continues
to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve doubled
your money, consider taking your profits.
4Q & FY 2008 earnings on February
19, 2008: Total net revenues were $831.9 million, an increase
of 175.6%. Net income for the full year was $61.4 million,
an increase of 71.7% from 2007. The Company also announced
the planned establishment of the Company's North American
operations base in San Francisco in 2009.
|
|
Westpac Bank (Australia)
|
No
|
WBK
|
$95.29
$52.46
(12.1.08)
|
$74.59
|
$144.04
$45.16
|
-22% &
+42%
|
|
Read the article, "Foreign
Investing:
From BRICs to Barbeys,"
in Vol. 5, Issue 7, for more information on why this Australian
bank is the new attraction in the world. Annual General Meeting
December 11, 2008. 2008 annual report: $3.9 billion in net
income (after tax). Is merging with St. George.
|
|
WisdomTree
NYC, USA
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$2.95
|
$1.21
|
$3.50
$.52
|
-59%
|
|
See Vol. 4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees,"
and Vol. 5, Issue 2, "International
Money Grows on WisdomTrees."
Announced 4Q and FY 2008 results
on Feb. 5, 2009. The full year net loss was $29.0 million
compared to $25.1 million in 2007. WisdomTree CEO Jonathan
Steinberg commented, "These are challenging times, but
these are also important times of change in the asset management
industry as difficult market conditions have highlighted the
importance of transparency, liquidity and tax efficiency like
never before. Recognition of these structural advantages helped
the ETF industry as a whole take in approximately $178 billion
in net inflows in 2008 in stark contrast to the net outflows
of mutual funds."
As of December 31, 2008, assets
under management ("AUM") tied to the WisdomTree
Indexes were $3.6 billion, down 21.8% since September 30,
2008. At the end of the fourth quarter, ETF AUM were $3.2
billion, down 22.0% from September 30, 2008. The severe decline
in the valuation of global equity markets contributed to $925
million of net market depreciation of the WisdomTree ETFs
in the fourth quarter. Despite domestic markets declining
nearly 22% and international markets nearly 20%, net inflows
into WisdomTree ETFs were $29.5 million in the fourth quarter.
For the full year, ETF AUM declined 30.2% primarily due to
$2.3 billion in market declines despite almost $900 million
in net inflows.
Launched New Zealand and South
African currency ETFs on June 26, 2008, with the symbols BNZ
and SZR respectively.
Jarrett Lilien, former E*TRADE
FINANCIAL Acting CEO, President and Chief Operating Officer,
joined the Board of Directors on November 14, 2008.
|
Stocks to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
Altair Nanotechnology
(4.15.09)
American
Superconductor (4.15.09)
Citigroup (4.1.09)
eBay (4.15.09)
FMC Corporation (5.4.09)
Google (4.15.09)
Maxwell Technologies (4.15.09)
MEMC Electronics (4.15.09)
Microsoft (4.15.09)
PowerShares Clean Energy fund (PBW)
Rio Tinto (RTP)
Satcon (4.15.09)
Sunpower (5.4.09)
Suntech (4.15.09)
Trina Solar (4.15.09)
Westpac (4.15.09)
Recent
Deletions:
Apple (moved
to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
Applied
Materials (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
Baidu (moved to Cooling Off List on 3.27.09)
First Solar (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
Intel (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
5.4.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Altair Nano-technology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.16
|
$1.16
|
$2.94
$0.60
|
--
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins With Li (Lithium)"
Vol. 6, Issue 4.
|
|
American Superconductor
|
Yes
|
AMSC
|
$29.44
|
$29.44
|
$47.53
$8.22
|
--
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, Issue 3.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$28.27
|
$34.88
$12.40
|
-7%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 6.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
RISK: Medium
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$47.30
|
$108.79
$30.64
|
-29%
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars"
article in Vol. 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets
are under duress. Avoid most banks for now.
|
|
Citigroup
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
C
|
$2.26
|
$3.14
|
$27.35
$.97
|
+39%
|
|
Financial markets are under duress.
Avoid most banks for now. Bailed out by the Feds November
2008. 1Q 2009 results will be released on 4.17.09 at 6:30
a.m. ET.
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
EBAY
|
$16.80
|
$16.80
|
$32.10
$9.91
|
--
|
|
Forward P/E is 12.92.
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$51.36
|
$51.36
|
$80.23
$28.53
|
--
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, Issue 4.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$393.69
|
$401.23
|
$602.45
$247.30
|
+2%
|
|
See Vol. 6, Issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes."
|
|
Maxwell Labs
|
No
|
MXWL
|
$10.25
|
$10.25
|
$14.75
$4.00
|
--
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, Issue 4.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$18.08
|
$18.08
|
$73.56
$10.00
|
--
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, Issue 3.
1Q 2009 results on 4.23.09: Summary
of first quarter results:
* Net sales of $214.0 million
* Gross profit of $19.7 million
(9.2% of net sales)
* Earnings of $0.01 per share
* Cash and investment balances of
$1.3 billion
Net sales of $214.0 million, which
represents a decrease of 49.7% from fourth quarter 2008 net
sales of $425.7 million, and a decrease of 57.3% from first
quarter 2008 net sales of $501.4 million. The sequential decrease
in sales was primarily the result of lower wafer volumes for
both semiconductor and solar applications and lower prices
associated with semiconductor and solar products.
The company reported an operating
loss during the quarter of $26.4 million, which compares
to operating income of $164.8 million in the 2008 fourth quarter
and $218.4 million in the 2008 first quarter. First quarter
2009 operating expenses, which include charges of $6.7 million
relating to the previously announced layoffs in three of the
company's manufacturing facilities, were $46.1 million, or
21.5% of sales, compared to $28.2 million, or 6.6% of sales,
in the 2008 fourth quarter, and $40.9 million, or 8.2% of
sales, in the 2008 first quarter.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$20.12
|
$20.12
|
$30.53
$14.87
|
--
|
|
Great blue chip. Buy at the best
possible price.
|
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$26.38
|
$15.67
|
$41.33
$8.21
|
-41%
|
|
With the financial crisis and the
crush it has put on the consumer’s wallet, I would be wary
about NetGear’s earnings reports in the coming quarters, since
so many of the company’s many products are reliant upon the
consumer electronics industry. Share price is getting hammered.
I don’t think this trend is over yet.
Watch Natalie Pace’s Exclusive
Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August
2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst &
Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear
was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS gave NetGear’s Skype phone
its Breakthrough Award.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy
ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.78
|
$9.78
|
$23.96
$5.78
|
--
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, Issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RTP
|
$180.79
|
$180.79
|
$558.65
$59.20
|
--
|
|
Earnings on 2.12.09: Record underlying
EBITDA1 of $22.3 billion2, 60 per cent above 2007. Net earnings1
of $3.7 billion, 50 per cent below 2007. Net earnings include
a charge of $8.4 billion related to asset impairments, partly
offset by gains of $1.5 billion from asset divestments. Net
debt reduced by $6.5 billion to $38.7 billion at 31 December
2008, with a goal of reducing debt by another $10 billion
by the end of 2009.
Rio Tinto’s chairman Paul Skinner
said, "The Group has responded decisively to markedly
weaker demand conditions in its major markets by reducing
capital and operating costs, and adjusting capacity where
appropriate. The Group will make sufficient investment to
maintain its growth options, in order to be well positioned
for a recovery in global economic activity."
Order of Magnitude studies were
completed at the Jadar lithium borates project in Serbia.
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$38.56
|
$39.23
$21.23
|
+7%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 6.
|
|
Satcon
|
No
|
SATC
|
$2.30
|
$2.30
|
$3.51
$1.08
|
--
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, Issue 3.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$57.58
|
$91.50
$34.10
|
+16%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, Vol.
3, issue 4 and
Vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in Vol. 4, Issue 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I did on
the Forbes.com Video Network.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$30.26
|
$30.26
|
$107.00
$18.50
|
--
|
|
Read "The
Sunny
Side"
in Vol. 6, Issue 3.
Announced 1Q earnings on April
23, 2009. Revenue for the 2009 first quarter was $214 million
and compares to revenues of $401 million in the fourth quarter
of 2008 and $274 million in the first quarter of last year.
Net loss was $5 million.
"The first quarter of 2009 was
the most challenging quarter we've seen since SunPower went
public in 2005," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO. "Our quarterly
performance was impacted by seasonality, the continuing effects
of the credit crisis and difficult economic conditions. Despite
these headwinds we were able to deliver strong gross margins
in our Components business and positive non-GAAP net income.
4.30.09: NJ’s largest utility,
Public Service Electric and Gas, just financed having Sunpower
install a 1.2-megawatt solar power system for Certified Steel
Co.'s 330,000-square-foot facility in Hamilton, NJ. The system
is due to be finished in July.
Sunpower just raised an additional
$417.6 million through issuance of 10,350,000 Class A shares
(at $22.00 per share) and 4.75% senior convertible debentures
due 2014. (4.30.09)
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
|
No
|
STP
|
$16.06
|
$16.06
|
$49.60
$5.09
|
--
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, Issue 3.
4.30.09: Dr. Stuart Wenham, Suntech's
Chief Technology Officer, has won the top prize at the 2009
Inventor of the Year awards hosted by NewSouth Innovations
(NSi), the technology commercialization company of the University
of NSW, Australia (UNSW). He has invented or co-invented eight
suites of solar cell technologies, and was instrumental in
helping develop Suntech's breakthrough Pluto technology. Suntech
is currently utilizing the Pluto technology to produce PV
cells on commercial grade solar wafers with conversion efficiencies
of approximately 19% on mono-crystalline PV cells and 17%
on multi-crystalline PV cells - around 12% above standard
screen printed crystalline silicon solar cells.
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman
and CEO, said that Suntech will start shipping panels with
the new Pluto technology "within the next few months."
(4.30.09)
|
|
Trina Solar Ltd.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$17.56
|
$17.56
|
$53.50
$5.61
|
--
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, Issue 3.
4.30.09: 20-F Annual report (of
foreign issuers):
Net revenue: $832 million,
compared to $302 million in 2007. Net income was $61 million,
over $35 million in 2007. Net margins are 7.4%, down from
11.7% in 2007. Cash and cash equivalents are $132 million,
but short-term borrowings are $249 million.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$73.54
|
$73.54
|
$122.58
$45.16
|
--
|
|
Will issue it’s half-year "interim"
results on May 6, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Chinese Yuan ETF
|
No
|
CYB
|
$24.85
|
$25.51
|
$25.72
$22.41
|
Flat
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Hi-Yield
ETF
|
No
|
DEM
|
$53.08
|
$39.13
|
$58.78
$27.10
|
-26%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets ETF
|
No
|
DGS
|
$44.66
|
$31.92
|
$52.71
$0.21
|
-29%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 2. Hold
off.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency
ETF
|
No
|
ICN
|
$24.28
|
$23.18
|
$25.71
$20.42
|
-5%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree International Financial
ETF
|
No
|
DRF
|
$23.25
|
$12.00
|
$31.49
$6.65
|
-48%
|
|
Add to Hot News in October 2009?
Read the articles, "International
Investing," and "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, Issue 2. Most holdings are in international finance,
with a big focus on Australia.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may
be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
American Express
(AXP)
Apple
(AAPL)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Baidu (BIDU)
First Solar (FSLR)
Fortress (FIG)
Intel (INTC)
Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD)
Time-Warner (TWX)
Wells
Fargo (WFC)
DELETIONS:
None
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 5.4.09
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Express
|
Yes
|
AXP
|
$16.98
|
$27.28
|
$52.63
$14.72
|
+61%
|
|
This year’s
mantra is take your profits early and often. AXP earned 35%
gain in February. It remains on the list because we believe
the downside potential still exists.
According
to the Associated Press, Kenneth Chenault, CEO of AMEX, was
one of the top 10 highest paid CEOs in 2008, at $42.9 million.
The charge-off rate of bad debt rose to 8.5%, according to
Forbes.
4.23.09
1Q 2009 earnings: income from continuing operations of $443
million, down 58 percent from $1.0 billion a year ago. Revenue
was $5 billion. Debt is $461 million. Provisions for losses:
$1.8 billion. Net income: $437 million, down from $991 million
a year ago. $1.2 billion in pensions costs and unrealized
securities, derivatives and currency losses were listed on
the "contingency" section of the earnings report.
Read the
article "American
Express," from
Vol. 6, Issue 2.
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
Yes
|
AAPL
|
$132.07
|
$132.07
|
$192.24
$78.20
|
--
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
Jobs is
taking a medical leave of absence until the end of June to
focus on his health while Tim Cook, COO runs things. Jobs
will remain CEO and will be involved in major strategic decisions.
Meanwhile, though Apple’s 2Q was very strong, they are entering
the toughest quarter of their cycle traditionally, at a time
when the economy in the US (and worldwide) is under significant
pressure.
2Q 2009
results on 4.21.09: Revenue of $8.16 billion and a net quarterly
profit of $1.21 billion. Gross margin was 36.4 percent, up
from 32.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales
accounted for 46 percent of the quarter's revenue.
Apple
sold 2.22 million Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter,
representing a three percent unit decline from the year-ago
quarter. The Company sold 11.01 million iPods during the quarter,
representing three percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter.
Quarterly iPhone units sold were 3.79 million representing
123 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter.
"We are
extremely pleased to report the best non-holiday quarter revenue
and earnings in our history," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's
CFO. "Apple's financial condition remains very robust, with
almost $29 billion in cash and marketable securities on our
balance sheet.
|
|
Applied
Materials
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$12.76
|
$12.76
|
$21.75
$7.17
|
--
|
|
Leadership,
product line and recessionary actions are all strong and bode
well for AMAT going forward. Weathering the storm is imperative
in the meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es
of this company, which is hard to justify in a contracting
environment. Almost $2 billion in cash and marketable securities.
Nanomanufacturing
Technology solutions for the global semiconductor, flat panel
display, solar and related industries, with a portfolio of
equipment, service and software products. The Company’s customers
include manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, flat
panel liquid crystal displays (LCDs), solar photovoltaic (PV)
cells and modules, and other electronic devices. It operates
in four segments: Silicon, Applied Global Services, Display,
and Energy and Environmental Solutions. On January 31, 2008,
Applied acquired Baccini S.p.A. (Baccini), a supplier of automated
metallization and test systems for crystalline silicon (c-Si)
solar PV cells.
Sales
were down 36% in the 1st quarter 2009. Switching
emphasis from chips to solar energy… GAAP net loss was $133
million, GAAP net loss per share was $0.10. New orders were
$903 million.
"We
acted early and decisively to reduce costs in line with economic
conditions that have resulted in an unprecedented decline
in demand," said Mike Splinter, president and CEO. "With our
leading technology and strong balance sheet, Applied is positioned
to weather this recession and invest in new products and services."
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$183.15
|
$248.25
|
$397.70
$100.50
|
+36%
|
|
Leading
Chinese website for search (similar to Google). Expecting
share price to continue to get battered. 25.12 P/E is high
for a declining marketplace. (Advertising revenue models tend
to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only 16
right now.)
4.27.09
1Q 2009 earnings: Total revenues in the first quarter of 2009
were $118.6 million, a 41.1% increase from the corresponding
period in 2008. Net income in the first quarter of 2009 was
$26.5 million, a 23.5% increase from the corresponding period
in 2008. Cash and cash equivalents equal $405.5 million.
|
|
First
Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$193.09
|
$193.09
|
$317.00
$85.28
|
--
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, Issue 4.
1Q 2009
on 4.30.09: Quarterly revenues were $418.2 million, down from
$433.7 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 and up
from $196.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Net
income for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was $164.6 million
or $1.99 per share on a fully diluted basis, up from $132.8
million or $1.61 per share on a fully diluted basis for the
fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 and up from $46.6 million or
$0.57 per share on a fully diluted basis for the first quarter
of fiscal 2008.
First
Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer
sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive
advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price.
That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing
is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium
telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source
as silicon. Read the article for more details.
|
|
Fortress
Investment Group
|
No
|
FIG
|
$3.57
|
$5.09
|
$19.50
$0.77
|
+43%
|
|
Release
1Q 2009 results on May 6, 2009.
Read the
articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, Issue 12) and "Money
Grows on Wisdom Trees," from Vol. 4, issue 3. Reported
earnings on 3.15.09. FY 2008 GAAP net loss of GAAP net loss
of $322 million. Principals in the company earned $222 million
of that net loss.
Can you
believe that they still have assets under management of $29.5
billion with all of these losses and the colossal salaries
of the five principals? $222 million was paid to the principals,
which put the net loss at $322 million, instead of just $100
million. Can you imagine paying yourself $222 million for
losing $100 million? They did manage to get their debt down
to $604 million…
Redemptions:
Drawbridge division = $3.3 billion, hybrid hedge fun = $1.5
billion which should show up on the 1Q earnings report. Drawbridge
redemptions had been suspended Nov. 30, 2008 (conveniently
so they wouldn’t show up on the annual report?).
|
|
Intel
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$16.66
|
$16.66
|
$25.29
$12.06
|
--
|
|
Intel
is a great blue chip. However, business spending fell off
a cliff in the recession. A P/E of 19 is probably too high
if the recession continues.
Green:
Intel and Google launched ClimateSaversComputing.org in 2007,
with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption reduction
by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partners to come
on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices and
Microsoft!
|
|
KB Home
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$19.50
|
$48.67
$6.90
|
-67%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue
5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the
fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest
rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.
Housing is not expected to recover until the 2nd
half of 2009 or even 2010, and while housing is in the toilet,
so are housing REITs, like KB Home and Toll Brothers.
McMansions are going the way of
Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient
world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying
new real estate these days at prices that KB can make a profit
on (considering their cost to carry the land, etc.)?
3.27.09 1Q 2009 earnings: Total
revenues of $307.4 million in the first quarter of 2009 were
down 61% from $794.2 million in the year-earlier quarter,
primarily due to lower housing revenues. The
Company generated a net loss of $58.1 million,
or $.75 per diluted share, for the quarter ended February
28, 2009, compared to a net loss of $268.2 million, or $3.47
per diluted share, for the year-earlier quarter.
|
|
MGM Mirage
|
No
|
MGM
|
$26.79
|
$9.44
|
$100.50
$5.10
|
-65%
|
|
Get more information in Vol.
5, Issue 10 in the (No)
Viva Las Vegas
article. The City Center project looms as exceedingly problematic
in today’s vast downturn of real estate in the Las Vegas area.
Anticipating very bad news on this project in the near future.
May 15, 2009 is the D-day for MGM to find a way to appease
its creditors about the $14.3 billion in long-term debt that
is due. Additionally, Dubai World appears to want out of the
City Center project.
5.4.09 1Q 2009 results: Net revenue
decreased 20% to $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009.
Revenues were negatively impacted by increased convention
cancellations - particularly in January and February and at
the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts - and a continued decline
in discretionary spending due to the weakened economy. Occupancy
at the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts was unusually low
in January, improved in February, and returned to a normalized
level of approximately 95% in March. The convention cancellations
forced the Company to shift hotel business to the leisure
segment at lower room rates. As a result of these factors,
Las Vegas Strip REVPAR(1) decreased by 34%, to $102 for the
first quarter of 2009 compared to $154 in the first quarter
of 2008.Total casino revenue declined 16%. Net income $105
million, compared to $118 million a year ago.
MGM has a new CEO and Chairman
effective December 1, 2008. James J. Murren became the Company's
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, effective December 1,
2008. Former Chairman and CEO J. Terrence Lanni will continue
as a member of the Board and will join the Diversity Committee.
majority shareholder and billionaire Kirk Kerkorian was pleased
and issued a statement applauding Lanni’s leadership and succession
plan. (Sounds like Murren might have been Kerkorian’s succession
plan…) Any way, can anyone resurrect Vegas in these turbulent
times?
"Whether or not the CityCenter
project goes into bankruptcy based on continual funding decisions
or MGM goes into bankruptcy based on separate covenant negotiations
is most contingent on whether MGM accepts the banks' terms,"
Bernstein's Research's Janet Brashear wrote to her clients.
|
|
Sears
Holding
|
Yes
|
SHLD
|
$52.93
|
$62.85
|
$127.32
$26.80
|
+19%
|
|
Read the
articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, Issue 12) and the "Discount"article
(Vol. 5, Issue 6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail
chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball
and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge
fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been trying to
get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for months or
been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot for so
long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all of the
board directors at Sears are in the investment business, not
the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott,
a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without
significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board
has any experience at all in retail.
4Q earnings
on 2.26.09: Net income for the 4th quarter was
$190 million as compared to net income of $426 million in
the fourth quarter of 2007. Cash balances of $1.3 billion
on 1.31.09. Spent $678 million on share repurchases in 2008.
Total debt as of January 31, 2009 was $2.9 billion, down from
$3.0 billion as of February 2, 2008. Annual report is due
on or before April 1, 2009.
Annual
Shareholder’s Meeting will be on Monday, May 4, 2009 in Hoffman
Estates, IL.
You can
read the shareholders letter from Chairman Eddie Lampert on
the SearsHoldings.com
website. This letter shows you just how much he (thinks he)
knows about investing and banking and the financial crisis
and what should have been handled differently and how little
the focus is on actual retail. What in the world does Bear
Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to do with selling
tires and tools and a strategy to get through the recession
until people start buying things again? Alright, 10 minutes
into the letter, and I have to call this a rant. Big red flag
folks.
Still
don’t have a CEO. Bruce Johnson is interim CEO. New CFO started
last October, right before the preparation of the annual report
began. The former CFO Miles Reidy decided that he needed to
spend more time with his family than to put is name on the
2008 annual report.
|
|
Time Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$24.44
|
$50.70
$17.81
|
--
|
|
Read the
article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5
in May 2009.
|
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$20.73
|
$28.00
$15.49
|
-45%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue
5 in 2005, when we first reported on REITs as a burned out
sector.
McMansions are going the way of
Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient
world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying
new real estate these days at the prices that TOLL needs to
earn a profit? Real estate is expected to continue to decline
through 2009, at minimum. (Toll Brothers cashed out hundreds
of millions beginning as early as 2005.)
3.4.09 1Q 2009 results: net loss
of $88.9 million, compared to a net loss a year ago of $96
million. revenues were $409.0 million, backlog was $1.04 billion
and net (after cancellations) signed contracts were $127.8
million. These totals represented declines of 51%, 56%, and
66%, respectively, in dollars, and 45%, 51% and 59%, respectively,
in units, compared to FY 2008's first-quarter results.
Cash on hand: $1 billion.
|
|
Wells
Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$20.05
|
$24.25
|
$44.69
$7.80
|
+21%
|
|
Added
back to list on 4.22.09. See Sharing Wisdom bulletin board
for notice.
Bank stress
test results to be announced by the Treasury on May 7, 2009.
See the calendar section at NataliePace.com for more info
and a link.
See Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings
in vol, 5, Issue 9, and Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression,
in Vol. 4, Issue 12. Announces 1Q earnings on April 22, 2009.
Predicting $3 billion net income. "Our business momentum
is strong, and we expect our operating margins to remain at
the top of our peer group," said Chief Executive Officer
John Stumpf. Expected results include:
* Total
revenue of $20 billion, including another quarter of double-digit
revenue growth at legacy Wells Fargo, up an estimated 16 percent…
1.28.09:
WELLS FARGO REPORTS FULL YEAR NET INCOME OF $2.84 BILLION,
$0.75 PER SHARE, FOURTH QUARTER NET LOSS OF $2.55 BILLION.
Record
revenue of $42.23 billion, up 7 percent from prior year
Full year
2008 net charge-offs were $7.84 billion (1.97 percent of average
total loans) compared
with $3.54
billion (1.03 percent) during 2007. Total wholesale charge-offs
(excluding business
direct)
increased $864 million from the prior year, including the
previously referenced $294 million of Madoff-related losses,
residential real estate construction and industries related
to home building. Home Equity charge-offs totaled $2.16 billion
(2.57 percent of average Home Equity loans) in 2008 compared
with $596 million (0.73 percent) in 2007. Auto charge-offs
totaled $1.23 billion (4.50 percent of average auto loans)
in 2008 compared with $1.02 billion (3.45 percent) in 2007.
Business Direct charge-offs totaled $819 million (6.96 percent
of average business direct loans) in 2008 compared with $433
million (3.97 percent) in 2007.
Nonperforming
assets totaled $9 billion and loans that are 90 days past
due and still accruing totaled $12.65 billion. At $21+ billion,
that is half of their "record revenue" for 2008.
Be advised.
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
|
$42.81
|
$176.14
$18.06
|
-55%
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5, Issue 10.
1Q 2009 results will be announced
on 5.5.2009.
Net revenues for 2008 were $3.0
billion, an 11.2% increase over 2007, primarily due to 35.6%
higher revenues from Wynn Macau. Net income for the year was
$210.2 million, or $1.92 per diluted share, compared to $258.1
million, or $2.34 per diluted share in 2007. Net
loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $159.6 million.
As of December
31, 2008, there were $202 million in outstanding construction
payables associated with the $2.3 billion Encore project budget.
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Recently
Deleted in 2008/2009:
Fannie Mae was
deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price
value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both
puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on
6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was
deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo
was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted
on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on
8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First
Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with
75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was
deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction).
Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on
10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells
Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again
on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in
just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Don’t
miss the Subscriber Teleconference this Wed., May 6, 2009, or Betty
Nguyen's interview with Natalie Pace on CNN on Saturday, May 9,
2009,or the Get Rich and Green Retreat on June 11, 2009.
 |
| Betty Nguyen,
anchor, CNN |
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add
online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are
booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Subscriber
Teleconference
Wednesday,
May 6th, 2009
5:00PM
through 5:40PM
Want to
earn gains like 450% in U.S. Gold? Time to start resurrecting your
nest egg? Wish you knew how to get Modern Portfolio Theory, ETFs
and semi-annual rebalancing into your game plan? Bring your Questions!
Get the call-in information on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board.
You will need your passwords, so make sure that get the access information
now!
Professional
Business Women of California 2009 San Francisco Conference
Wednesday,
May 6th, 2009
20th Anniversary
Conference. Over 50 speakers, 200 exhibitors, 5,000 attendees. Join
the largest gathering of professional women in the San Francisco
Area for a day of learning, networking and inspiration. Workshops,
lunch and keynotes from some of the most successful business leaders,
providing you with the tools you need to succeed in the business
world. Your company might pay for you to attend! Ask them!
Bank
Stress Test Results To be Released by the Treasury Department
Thursday,
May 7th, 2009
The Treasury
Dept. will release the results of its bank stress tests today. The
report could significantly impact the markets, particularly the
banks receiving negative marks.
Natalie
Pace on CNN
Saturday,
May 9th, 2009
CNN anchor
Betty Nguyen interviews Natalie Pace about her new book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and how people can profit from
investing during a recession.
Alice
Waters, Chez Panisse founder, speaks on Edible School Yards, Santa
Monica, CA
Tuesday,
May 19th, 2009
7:00PM
through 9:00PM
Alice
Waters, founder of Chez Panisse and the Chez Panisse Foundation
and an international governor of Slow Food, will speak in Santa
Monica about her experience bringing the Edible Schoolyard program
to public schools. Benefits a local public school.
Natalie
Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com Twitter-in with your Questions!
Wednesday,
May 20th, 2009
9:00AM
through 9:30AM
Host Shaun
Daily interviews Natalie Pace on how to make money in these crazy
times! Learn how you own Wall Street and have the power to stop
the bailout and start the resurrection of a new world.
Verdi's
La Traviatta at LA Opera!
Thursday,
May 21st, 2009
7:30PM
through 11:00PM
Verdi’s
heart-rending story of a Parisian courtesan with a sordid past and
no future features some of the composer’s most ravishing and popular
music.
Get
Rich and EnRich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
Thursday,
May 21st through Saturday, May 23rd, 2009
3-day
retreat with Natalie Pace. Resurrect, resurrect and rehab your life
and nest egg. Learn how to profit in downtrending, turbulent markets.
Only 14 people at this intimate retreat! SOLD OUT! (There are still
a few seats in the June Retreat. Get more info on the home page
at NataliePace.com.)
Deepak
Chopra & Marianne Williamson. LA, CA
Saturday,
May 23rd, 2009
9:00AM
through 6:00PM
The Soul
of Success: Consciousness and the Economy. Deepak Chopra and Marianne
Williamson lead a day-long seminar at the Ritz-Carlton in Marina
del Rey, CA. Learn the difference between money and wealth and the
spiritual laws that can center your life during turbulent times.
Sophia
2010 World Conference, Bulgaria
Monday,
May 25th, 2009
Sophia
2010 is a major world conference to achieve global goals to improve
social conditions, preserve nature and honor spirituality towards
a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world.
Memorial
Day
Monday,
May 25th, 2009
Memorial
Day was originally called Decoration Day. It is a day of remembrance
for those who have died in the service of our nation.
Revelation
2009, Atlanta, GA
Thursday,
May 28th, 2009
Agape's
Annual Revelation Conference 2009 is hosted by Michael Bernard Beckwith,
founder of Agape Int'l Spiritual Center, and Dr. Rickie Byars Beckwith,
the artistic director of the Agape International Choir. Be inspired.
Supercharge your spiritual path.
T.
Harv Eker's Extreme Wealth School: Los Angeles
Thursday,
June 4th through Sunday, June 7th, 2009
Money
gurus teach you how to invest like the rich do, in this 4-day educational/blueprint
changing intensive. Natalie has been a speaker for the last few
years. Will she speak again this year? Hmmm...
Step
Up Inspiration Awards, Beverly Hills, CA
Friday,
June 5th, 2009
12:00PM
through 2:30 PM
Honor
Marcia Cross, Lisa Ling and Lauren Zalaznick at a Step Up Fashion
Show and Luncheon to benefit teen girls, mentoring programs and
college!
Celebrate
Your Life! Conference, Chicago
Friday,
June 5th, 2009
Meet All
Your Favorite Authors in One Powerful Weekend Event! Michael Bernard
Beckwith, Rickie Byars Beckwith, Neale Donald Walsch and more...
Get
Rich and Green Retreat with Natalie Pace, Santa Monica, CA
Thursday,
June 11th through Saturday, June 13th, 2009
When you
check off the boxes blindly, you are invested in the Bailout Index.
When you learn Modern Portfolio Theory, ETFs and rebalancing, you
have a blueprint that is as easy as a pie chart that makes you rich.
Just 14 people in a boardroom setting taught hands on for three
full days by #1 stock picker, Natalie Pace. Don’t miss this once
in a lifetime opportunity. Your life will be empowered forever.
You spend hundreds of thousands to learn how to be a good income
earner. Spend a fraction of that learning how to be a great investor!
Forbes
CEO Forum. Scotland
Sunday,
June 14th, 2009
The Gleneagles
Hotel, Scotland, UK. The Global Innovation Machine: Fueling New
Growth in Tough Times. Keynote speakers include Steve Forbes, Stephanie
Bell-Rose, Managing Dir. Goldman Sachs, Lady Barbara Thomas, Chairman
of the UK Atomic Energy Authority and more.

Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is
by Natalie Pace.
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one. |
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