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ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.6 Issue 11, November 1st, 2009
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"Health savings accounts (HSAs) allow consumers to carry
over from one year to the next any balances in their health accounts
that are not spent. HSA accounts should become a more important
part of the American system."
Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Prize winning economist (1992),
University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor,
Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago.
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Clinton’s
Newest Passion: School Girls in Kenya.
by Natalie
Pace.
President Clinton
started the Clinton Global Initiative five years ago to "turn
good intentions into real action and results." Toward that
end, commitments made in the corridors of CGI Meetings have affected
more than 200 million lives in 170 countries (according to CGI data).
More than 1,700 commitments have been made, valued at $57 billion.
(The most famous CGI sprouts would be the Cash for Clunkers Program,
Brad Pitt’s Make It Right Foundation and Water.org – a Matt Damon
project.)
Mary Mwende
Alex, a college-bound Kenyan, may not yet fully comprehend
just how much $57 billion is. Girls in her neighborhood are still
struggling to scrape together change for tampons and shoes. But
she is completely aware of and grateful for the extraordinary opportunities
that lie before her, thanks to CGI and her mentor, Linda Lockhart.
In 2008, Linda
Lockhart, the founder of the Global
Give Back Circle, leveraged a membership with CGI into
a partnership with Microsoft, AREbank Greece and Equity Bank. With
the support of these partners, GGBC volunteers have financially
supported and personally guided 35 disadvantaged (female) high school
graduates in Kenya out of the slums and into college. This year,
Linda has committed to expand the GGBC reach and bring another 100
girls into the program. With that goal in mind, she flew three GGBC
Ambassadors (recent high school grads, bound for college) to the
Clinton Global Initiative Meeting in New York City.
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Carolyne
Manchara, Mary Mwende Alex and Khadija Abdulla Said rapping
onstage at the Clinton Global Initiative (from left to right),
while President Clinton and Linda Lockhart watch.
Photo Credit: The Clinton Global Initiative © 2009
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Carolyne
Manchara, Mary Mwende Alex, President Clinton, Linda Lockhart
and Khadija Abdulla Said (from left to right).
Photo Credit: The Clinton Global Initiative © 2009 |
September 22,
2009 was the first time that Mary Mwende Alex, Khadija Abdulla Said
and Carolyne Manchara had ever visited New York City, or worn makeup
and hosiery, but they were nonplussed and inspiring both times they
took the stage at the Clinton Global Initiative. President Clinton
invited Mary, Khadija and Carolyne to rap, as a warm-up for the
crowd before the opening keynote speaker – President Barack Obama.
And three days later, just moments before his wife, Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton, closed the ceremony, President Clinton proudly
announced that the American University in Dubai had offered 4-year
scholarships to the three young women, to attend their university
as Clinton Scholars.
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Mary Mwende
Alex holds her own at a press conference. She is flanked by
the Dr. Andrew Kuper (on her left), the President and Founder
of of Leapfrog Investments and Vinita Bali, CEO/Managing Director
of Britannia Industries Ltd.
Photo: © 2009 Natalie Pace
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| Photo:
© 2009 Natalie Pace |
While in New
York City, at a social gathering sponsored by CGI, Mary, Khadija
and Carolyne chatted up celebrities, including Martin Scorsese (without
realizing who he was) and Alicia Keys, and handed out their business
cards.
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| Linda
Lockhart (in rear), Mary Mwende Alex, Alicia Keys, Carolyne
Manchara and Khadija Abdulla Said (from left to right) |
It’s quite a
long way from Kenya, but these girls take their jobs as Ambassadors
for the organization that saved them seriously. They are devoted
to getting out and getting educated, but not just for themselves.
Each intend to return to Kenya and help their friends escape the
health hazards and poverty that run rampant, destroying the spirit
and possibilities of those still living in the slums.
Mary
Mwende Alex (in her own words)
Girls
in my country are not treated the same way boys are. I do not mean
that all boys are treated better in all families in Kenya. But most
are. Many people and communities in Kenya have let go of all the
misleading cultures. But some are still deeply rooted in these communities.
Female genital
mutilation is still practiced in several communities. No anesthesia
is used, so the little girl bears all that pain and sometimes dies,
due to either the pain or excessive bleeding.
Most communities
still think that the position of a woman in the society is the kitchen.
Therefore when the boys are either playing or studying, the girl
is doing the house chores and being taught how to be a good mother.
Early marriages still occur in a few communities and this is forced
early marriage and not just "early" marriage. A girl is
married off at a very young age, and this is really disheartening
because the dreams of that girl are buried in the kitchen and in
the house chores.
We never
dream again when such things occur. We stop dreaming.
That is why
we need the organizations that are involved in the fight against
all these inhuman customs to help out. That is why we need organizations
like the Global Give Back Circle to bring back the old memories
-- where we used to dream big.
The circumcision
process of a girl is very painful and bitter. I have not experienced
it, but I have seen it happen to many. I have read what they do
and you will never imagine anything like it. Some communities are
really rough and the girl dies during childbirth. Most are affected
for the rest of their lives.
The women
of Africa in general want to sing a song of love. And the time is
finally here when each and every being should sit down and think
about all these things. They are totally unacceptable and are disheartening.
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| Mary
Mwende Alex |
Mary’s mission
is to educate herself and return home to empower her African sisters.
Thankfully and miraculously, this mission caught Clinton’s roving
eye. And I’m not just talking about Bill. Both Bill and Hillary
share the passion of actively improving the lives and opportunities
for girls and women worldwide. In her role as Secretary of State,
one of the first things Secretary Clinton did was to appoint the
first Ambassador of Global Women’s Issues – Ambassador Melanne Verveer.
As Secretary Clinton says in a special message on Oprah.com, "Women
and girls hold up half the sky… A change must happen so that [they]
have the rights and the voice that they deserve to have."
"The most
dangerous places in the world are those places where women are put
down," according to the U.S. Ambassador of Global Women’s Issues
Melanne Verveer. "No country can prosper if it leaves half
of its population behind," she advises.
In January,
Mary Mwende will board a plane to a new life that few girls in Kenya
could ever imagine -- college. She is deeply honored to be a Clinton
Scholar at the American University in Dubai. She aims to study biotechnology.
All of this
is possible thanks to the work and vision of the Clintons (giving
women and girls a stage and a voice), Mary’s mentor Linda Lockhart
and Global
Give Back Circle’s partners Microsoft, AREbank Greece
and Equity Bank.
For more information,
please visit the Global Give Back Circle’s website, where mentors
are actively empowering talented, intelligent girls in Kenya to
lift up their half of the sky – before they are married off… or
mutilated..
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Germany
Designs the Coolest (errr.. Hottest) Solar Home Again!
by Natalie
Pace.
Report
from the Department of Energy’s Solar Decathlon 2009.
Includes
a Solar
Stock Report Card.
The Solar Decathlon,
which was inaugurated in 2002 when President Bush was in office,
was designed to push solar power and energy efficient innovation
through a student-led competition. The inaugural event got very
few headlines. A solid green fan base came by to tour the homes,
but, even with a convenient location on the Washington Mall, few
of the DC power elite cared to even make an appearance.
However, this
year’s Solar Decathlon, the 4th ever, brought the Wow
factor with it. The twenty 500+ square foot homes were more than
the novelties -- interesting, but fragile, leaky and cramped – of
yesteryear. In fact, this year’s architectural winner -- Team California’s
home – was drop dead gorgeous – something that could grace the cover
of a leading architectural magazine.
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| Solar
Decathlon Architectural Winner: Team California (Santa Clara)
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And CEOs, VIPs
and even Spanish royalty stopped by for photo ops with U.S. Secretary
of Energy Steven Chu.
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U.S. Secretary
of Energy Steven Chu cuts the ribbon to officially open the
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon 2009 on the National
Mall in Washington, D.C., Thursday, Oct. 08, 2009. From left:
Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy John Lushetsky; Joseph Rigby, CEO of Pepco
Holdings Inc.; Amy Huntington, president of Schneider Electric;
Mike Splinter, CEO of Applied Materials; Secretary of Energy
Steven Chu; Spain Housing Minister Beatriz Corredor; and BP
Solar CEO Reyad Fezzani. (Credit: Stefano Paltera/U.S. Department
of Energy Solar Decathlon
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| Princess
Cristina De Borbon of Spain takes a look at Team Spain's solar-powered
house with Spain's ambassador Jorge Dezcallar de Mazarredo,
left, and Universidad Politécnica de Madrid professor Joseph
Adell, center, during the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon
on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., Friday, Oct. 16, 2009.
(Credit: Stefano Paltera/U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon)
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The technological,
architectural and viability progress made since 2002 is impressive
– with each team building upon the prior team’s successes and failures.
Rice University had the most noteworthy post-competition use for
its home. The team negotiated an agreement with Project Row Houses,
a local community development organization, to donate their ZEROW
HOUSE to Houston's Third Ward after the competition. With a cost
of under $250,000 (the lowest in the competition), their home meets
HUD standards and could become a prototype for low-income, energy
efficient housing.
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| Rice University
Home |
Team Germany
reigned supreme for the second consecutive Decathlon, followed by
#2 University of Illinois. But #3 Team California was truly the
talk of the Mall and the competition. If the categories were more
evenly weighted, Team California would have easily won. #1 Team
Germany and #2 University of Illinois edged out #3 Team California
for the top spots by scoring the most points in Net Metering – essentially
by producing more energy. Net Metering (energy generation) accounts
for 15% of the total points – the most of any of the 10 categories.
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| #1 Team
Germany (the black house), #2 University of Illinois |
Power generation
is a game of dollars and cents. While Team Germany’s home was, for
the second competition in a row, noteworthy, unique and fresh, the
real story is that the team spent a lot more on solar panels than
any school in the competition. Their cost came in at the staggering
price of $650-$850,000. (Rice’s home was less than a third of the
price.) If Team California, with a budget of $450,000-$650,000,
had spent an extra quarter of a million on solar panels, the team
would have won the competition hands down, since it outscored both
Germany and Illinois, when Net Metering is given equal weighting.
Team California scored in the Top Three of seven categories, while
Team Germany’s Top Three showings were limited to just three energy-related
categories of Net Metering, Comfort and Hot Water.
I’m not pooh-poohing
comfort in a home, but why not have it all – style, comfort and
affordability! Team California produced enough energy to power their
home, while Team Germany was more of a power plant — producing twice
as much power as needed.
In addition
to renewable energy, the competition rewards innovative uses of
recycled and reclaimed materials. The University of Illinois constructed
their home with old barn’s wood. The University of Arizona’s walls
were made from recycled plastic containers. And Cornell was inspired
by silos.
Each home was
extremely tailored for their local needs – spiked roofs for snowy
weather and skylights for sunny climates. Puerto Rico’s home, with
lots of patio space and hammocks, works perfectly in the Caribbean.
People’s Choice and Market Viability, the University of Louisiana
at Lafayette designed a front porch for Blue Grass and jug-blowing
in the summer, which can be partitioned off as an inside den in
winter.
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| SiloHouse:
Cornell University, CASHHouse: Puerto Rico (Caribbean Affordable
Solar House), BeauSoleil: University of Louisiana at Lafayette
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Which Solar
Panel Reigns Supreme at the Solar Decathlon?
There
is one solar panel manufacturer that has dominated the Solar Decathlon
competition year in and year out, since the inaugural event in 2002.
The University of Colorado, the #1 team in those years, used Sunpower
panels in 2002 and 2005. This year, the University of Illinois lined
their roof with Sunpower solar panels and scored 2nd
in Net Metering. Team California also sported Sunpower panels on
their home.
Germany, which
consistently boasts of the most innovative use of solar panels,
had Würth Solar shingles on the exterior of their home. In
2007, Germany had mini solar panels embedded into louvers on the
exterior of the house.
Thin film solar
panels are almost nonexistent at the competition because they get
killed in the net metering, comfort, hot water and appliances categories.
Sunpower panels have the most power, efficiency and a sleek, black
surface that can be used for aesthetics in the design. Click here
for a Solar
Stock Report Card to learn more about these solar manufacturers
as potential investments.
If you’re interested
in a small, sustainable home, regardless of whether you are in Arizona,
New Jersey or Canada, you’re certain to be inspired by this year’s
Solar Decathlon collection of 20 homes. Tour the homes on the Solar
Decathlon site and take virtual tours on the Solar
Decathlon’s YouTube channel. Mark your calendar to attend
the 5th competition in the fall of 2011.
Solar Decathlon
Categories:
Net Metering (150
points)
Architecture
(100
points)
Market
Viability (100
points)
Engineering
(100
points)
Appliances
(dishwasher, laundry, refrigerator) (100
points)
Hot
Water (100
points)
Comfort
Zone (warm, cozy and not too humid) (100
points)
Home
Entertainment (TV/computer, dinner parties, movie night) (100
points)
Communications
(website/brochures/info) (75
points)
Lighting
Design (75
points)
Full Disclosure:
I own shares of Hoku and LDK Solar (mentioned in the Stock Report
Card). I do not own positions in any other companies mentioned in
this Stock Report Card and article.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and CEO of one of the most respected,
independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She
has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has
partnered content with
Forbes.com,
Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more. She
has appeared on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC,
Time Magazine, More Magazine, USA Today, NPR and national radio
shows. Ask her your money questions on her weekly radio show on
BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect
a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance
of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk
tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of
your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should
never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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Miss
America Goes Green.
by Tamara
Henry.
Learn
what America’s most beautiful young women are doing to save the
planet.
What
does "being green" mean to the contestants of the Miss America 2010
Pageant? That's what I went to find out, as I flew from Los
Angeles to Orlando, Florida to interview the eco-chic Miss America
hopefuls. It's all part of the "Green T - Green is Gorgeous
Award", an interactive video contest on my Green T with Tamara website,
www.GreenTwithTamara.TV .
Their answers
will surprise you. Here are the top five topics that came
up:
1. Recycling.
Among them, one hopeful said she uses shoeboxes and "Pringles" cans
for gift boxes during the holidays. Along with many traditional
tips on recycling, some unique habits emerged. One Miss America
hopeful uses MAC makeup products and returns six of the reusable
cases to the MAC Store to receive free lipstick.
2. Reduce.
Using aluminum water bottles instead of bottled water to reduce
the amount of plastic pouring into our landfills was a popular theme,
as well as cutting down on the amount of time spent in the shower
to reduce water consumption. One contestant tells of how she frequently
goes into the basement in her dorm and shuts the hot water valve
off to force her roommates out of the shower. Another
told of how her campus has gone "trayless" in the dining hall so
there is no water used to wash them. Everything from using
public transportation to adjusting thermostats came up in their
answers.
3. Reuse.
Bringing your own bags to the grocery store for shopping is de rigueur
among the beauties of the contest. One Miss America hopeful
told me a story of how her grandmother taught her to reuse aluminum
foil and clean plastic Baggies for reuse.
4. Small
Changes. Many of the contestants pointed out the importance
of each one of us doing small things. Just being aware of
your impact and doing your part because SMALL things add up. There
was also a BIG - small thing pointed out as one hopeful said that
in her state they were planning to manufacture a battery powered
Hummer!
5. Buying
Local. Buying locally grown produce means fewer pesticides are
used, and it helps local farmers in their states. It also tastes
better because fewer preservatives and flash-freezing means you
get just-picked flavor.
Editor’s
Note: Even though I’m not a Miss America Hopeful (no, sadly, you
cannot vote for me), I’d like to add one simple tip. Unplug your
cell phone chargers! If you leave it plugged in all day, you are
sucking energy that entire time.
Now it's your
turn. Please vote for the Beauty with the best insight on
"being green." The winner will become the first "Green T -
Green is Gorgeous Award" winner and will take home a few environmentally
conscious prizes. Watch their answers on-line now and vote
for your favorite!
Just go to the Green
T with Tamara website www.GreenTwithTamara.TV.
The contestants are on our interactive map and YOU get to be the
judge! The contest will end on Friday, January 29, 2010, at
9PM Eastern Time, the night before the Miss America 2010 Pageant.
Thank you for
taking part and supporting Green T in our mission of HOPE . . .
Healing Our Planet Earth.
Is your energy
bill killing your budget? Want to go green, but need a few more
tips? Green in good for your wallet, as well as the planet. There
are some VERY simple strategies that are still not well known.
Join Tamara Henry on BlogTalkRadio.com with host Natalie Pace on
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 at 9:00 a.m. PT. Go to BlogTalkRadio.com
now to get the call-in information. You can ask your questions online
LIVE during the show in the BTR chat room. Spread the word!
About
Tamara Henry
*Tamara Henry
competed in the Miss Arkansas - America Pageant system from 1991-1994...
placed in the top ten twice... and was the winner of the Fruit of
the Loom Quality of Life Award and the Community Service Award for
a program she created - "Promoting Health through Whole Person Wellness"
- an inspirational program about mind/body/spirit/Earth. Since winning
the title of Miss Arkansas USA 1997, Tamara has been giving back
a scholarship: "The Tamara Henry Broadcast Journalism Award."
www.MissArkansas.actorsite.com
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Meet The First Woman
of Finance: Muriel Siebert (and Her Multi-Billion Dollar Bond Business).
by Natalie
Pace.
Exclusive
Q&A.
Muriel
"Mickey" Siebert is a legend on Wall Street. Junior Achievement
named her the First Woman of Finance earlier this year, and that
pretty much sums up her legacy. Mickey was the first woman to have
a board seat on the New York Stock Exchange (in 1967), the first
Female Superintendent of Banking in the State of New York (in 1977)
and she has underwritten over $560 billion in public financings
through her municipal bond business, Siebert Brandford Shank.
Needless to
say, she knows a thing or two about Wall Street, about bonds and
about the regulatory oversight (or lack thereof) of banks. Since
so many of us are wondering "what’s safe" in these crazy
times, I turned to the expert.
Natalie Pace:
You have had so many achievements that it is difficult to know where
to begin. What’s your secret to success?
Muriel Siebert:
It’s sort of fun to see a challenge and say, "I can do it."
Wall Street
is quite a challenge these days. Any tips for the average investor?
They have to
start studying so they know what they are buying. That takes time
and a determination. It can pay off in gains. It can keep you out
of bad stocks. But it will not automatically mean good stocks.
Isn’t that
the brokers’ job – to put you in great stocks and avoid the clunkers?
The brokerage
business has changed. If you want to use your own advice, you can
get very cheap order executions. If you want to get advice from
a well-paid broker, you’re going to have to pay for it -- either
in commissions or a higher transaction fee.
There are rare
events where you can get both low costs and excellent research analysis.
Full-service brokers are charging you more, so they should know
and have researched the company they are recommending to you.
You have
a brokerage. Do your brokers help their clients select stocks?
We’re discount
brokers. We have a low commission and people have to know what they
want to buy or sell.
You also
have a strong municipal bond business. Can you give our readers
tips on selecting bonds these days? Since the rating agencies bungled
corporate bonds so badly in 2008 and 2009, it’s hard to know whom
to trust. And, of course, with California (and other states) on
the brink of bankruptcy…
With Municipal
bonds, one of the things you have to do is to get a prospectus.
In the prospectus, it will tell you the source of revenues that
back the interest. If you don’t like the source, you don’t consider
buying it. You’ve got bonds that are covered by the general revenues
of the state. New York City and other parts of the nation also have
bonds that are guaranteed by their income from water. There you
have to look at the revenue streams to see if they look sufficient
to be paid in good markets and bad.
Hmmm. So,
it’s not as simple as "avoid California." The assumption
is that the closer you get to revenues derived from basic needs,
the safer the bond is in a recession, right?
You have to
analyze each one. You can’t generalize. You can have a dozen safe
bonds in a state where not everything has the same quality of earnings
behind them. Water is a particularly stable one because people very
rarely turn off their water. That’s a bill they’ll try to pay.
Can you give
us an example of a riskier bond?
Tobacco bonds
were not respected. They were yielding more, but they were guaranteed
by the tobacco. They paid more, but you have to be willing to take
that risk relative to getting the better interest. That information
is available in the prospectus.
If you can’t
blindly trust the rating agencies and we’ve seen problems with the
analysts in the past, where can you get good information?
You can get
good information off the web today. You can get it in the financial
reports or write the company and ask for an annual report and interim
reports. A lot of the companies have meetings every quarter where
they go into the explanation of what happened. You can get invited
to those meetings with 800 numbers. Those help a lot.
What about
funds?
You can make
very good money in any of them – funds, stocks or bonds -- or lose
money in them. You must follow the pricing. I personally price what
I own every Saturday morning.
Are you a
day-trader?
I don’t trade
much. I have to see if a stock is down or up for a reason that I
don’t know. If there is news on it, like their earnings were disappointing
or way above average, you would see why the stock went from $3.40
to $3.60. If their earnings weren’t explaining it, you would want
to know why the stock moved. You don’t sell on that unless you think
that increase will not continue.
What is the
best strategy in a tough economy like we have today. Even if we’re
on the Road to Recovery, there are a lot of people out of work and
worried about their livelihood and their retirement plan.
I went into
our brokerage office the other day, and I saw this couple there.
They said, "Our stocks are going down. We’re worth less money
every day."
I said, "I
would add up what I spend every month and then see if you could
sell enough of common stocks and invest them at 5% bond interest.
Could you get those costs safely and still have enough portfolio
of stocks so that when the market turns, you’ll make some back?"
They did that.
I ran into them again and they said, "You gave us a piece of
mind."
I felt very
good about that.
Do you recommend
more of a balance between stocks and bonds? That all investors should
consider adding bonds to their portfolio -- as more peace of mind
and stability…
Stocks could
bounce up, or it take them several years. But in the meantime, the
bonds haven’t gone bad. So they still have their capital if they
needed it, but they know that they can live their life. I’m not
saying they have enough to charter an airplane.
There have
been horror stories about retirees who were all in on stocks, who
never knew that bonds are more stable and steady, with much lower
risk.
I think it’s
incumbent to have bonds because you put your money in expecting
it to be worth X dollars…
You were
the first female Superintendent of Banking for the State of New
York. Do you have any insight into what the hell happened to leave
taxpayers bailing out banks?
I have never
seen anything like this and I don’t think the country has seen it
since the Depression. When I learned the importance of the subprime
mortgages, I did some research and talked to people I hadn’t spoken
to in years. Where were the regulators and why didn’t they catch
this? It’s very hard to comprehend.
So, for those
of us who are moving in with relatives to make ends meet, or have
lost a job, or have seen so much of the nest egg run out that we’ll
be forced to continue working instead of retiring, what is your
best advice?
When everything
is caving in, you have to have a sense of humor because it lets
you laugh and keep your health. That’s important. You can’t let
the little bastards get you down.
Excellent
advice!
When it’s money
in general, you know that other people are going through the same
things and it will change.
And let’s
not forget the importance of health to wealth. Stressing out over
money is only going to cost you more in lost income and doctor bills…
I can have as
good of a time in a good hamburger bar as I can eating a steak.
And I had to do that a lot of time. I had a hamburger a block from
where I live at a local Irish bar. I don’t have to impress anyone.
If there
were one challenge you would like to conquer today, what would it
be?
I get annoyed
at times, because we should be teaching investing and budgeting
in schools.
Aren’t your
financial literacy programs being taught in New York City high schools?
I started a
program in the New York schools that teaches the kids credit cards
and checking accounts. When I was Superintendent of Banks, my deputy
brought in kids who were going bankrupt at 18. They got a credit
card. They maxed it out and basically went bankrupt. That’s pretty
pathetic. I saw that they couldn’t ask their parents to teach them
better habits. Their parents didn’t know. And we don’t teach it
in school. We’re sending these kids into the real world and they
don’t know how to handle their money. I had to lobby to get it into
the NYC schools. It’s in 109 schools now.
Well, with
any luck we’ll see more financial literacy programs for young adults
and adults alike! (That’s my passion, too.) Thanks so much for your
time, Mickey.
Muriel Siebert
is the president and chief executive officer of the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) brokerage firm that bears her name, Muriel Siebert
& Co., Inc. She established the firm in 1967 when she became
the first woman member of the NYSE and transformed it into a discount
brokerage house on May 1, 1975, the first day that NYSE members
were permitted to negotiate commissions. The firm’s Siebert Brandford
Shank & Co., LLC municipal affiliate is ranked in the top 20
public finance firms in the country. By the end of 2008 Siebert
Brandford Shank had served as a managing underwriter for public
financings exceeding $560 billion in total par amount since the
firm was founded in October 1996.
Siebert’s
Online Discount Brokerage boasts experience and integrity and no
hidden fees. To "trade up" to Siebert Brokerage, go to
SiebertNet.com.
.
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Will
World Food Prices Resume their Sharp Increase?
by Dr.
Gary S. Becker.
The
worldwide recession has slowed the growth in the demand for cereals
and other foods as many countries have experienced stagnation or
contraction in their GDPs. Now that the recession appears to be
over, world GDP will start growing again. Many are forecasting that
this growth in world output, especially the growth in developing
nations, will put sharp upward pressure on food prices and that
of oil, natural gas, and other commodities. Even the Malthusian
specter has been raised again that the growth in world population
will exceed the capacity of the world to produce the food demanded
to improve living standards in the developing world.
The sharp increases
in food and other commodity prices during the period from 2002 to
2008 when world GDP was growing rapidly tends to support these fears.
The World Bank's index of world food prices increased by 140 percent
from 2002 to the beginning of 2008, and by 75 percent after September
2006. The price of oil went up more than fourfold from the beginning
of 2002 to its peak at over $145 a barrel during mid 2008. At that
time there were many predictions of oil going to $200 a barrel rather
quickly, and also of food prices continuing to rise rapidly. The
world recession clearly made these predictions obsolete, at least
until world GDP begins to grow again.
Rapid growth
in world GDP will put strong upward pressure on some commodity prices.
However, the supply responses of exhaustible resources, like oil
and natural gas, should be distinguished from the supply response
of food production. The supply of fossil fuels is obviously ultimately
limited by the amounts in the ground. Outputs of oil, coal, and
other fossil fuels can be increased by new discoveries, such as
the recent discovery of oil off of Brazil, by extracting more of
these fuels out of existing fields, and by squeezing oil and other
fuels out of shale and other rock formations. Yet, all these ways
combined have rather limited effects on total output. This is why,
along with OPEC's restrictions on oil output, long run supply responses
of oil, gas, and coal to changes in their prices are usually estimated
to be quite modest. The long run elasticities of supply in response
to rises in the prices of fuels are about +0.4 to +0.5.
The short run
response of world food production to increases in food prices may
not be large either, although farmers can shift rather quickly among
the production of corn, soybeans, wheat, and other crops. In the
long run, however, world production of food is quite sensitive to
the world price of food. Given time to adjust, farmers can substantially
increase the production from given amounts of land devoted to farming
by greater use of fertilizers and capital equipment. Higher prices
encourage investments in discovering new methods of improving farm
productivity, such as corn and other hybrids, the green revolution,
and genetically modified foods. Productivity advances in agricultural
output were very rapid at many times during the past century, often
outstripping advances in manufacturing and other sectors.
The amount of land devoted to farming in most countries declined
drastically during the past century as urban sprawl, highways, and
other land uses took over much of the land formerly used to farm.
In the United States, farmers comprising less than 2% of the labor
force and using well under half the available land, produce enough
farm goods not only to contribute most of the food that feeds the
huge American population, but these farmers also export corn, soybeans,
wheat, and other farm goods all over the world. With high enough
food prices, financial incentives will encourage farmers to take
some land back from suburban, ethanol production, and other non-food
uses.
World prices
of food generally declined during the 20th century when world population
and world GDP per capita grew enormously. The reason for these diverse
trends is that productivity in the production of food expanded at
a more rapid rate than did the demand for food. The advances in
production were due to the use of new and more effective fertilizers,
better farm machines, and many applications of scientific knowledge
to improving the productivity of agriculture. Developed countries
spent considerable resources on subsidies to farmers to help keep
their prices up, not down. Even though it may not be possible to
predict the exact nature of future agricultural innovations, one
can reasonably expect similar growth in world farm output during
the next several decades, especially if food prices rise by a significant
amount.
Rapid growth
in future world GDP is likely to greatly raise the prices of oil
and other fossil fuels, unless concerns about global warming induce
major steps to reduce the demand for these fuels. Rapid growth in
world output is also likely to sharply raise the demand for cereals,
meat, and other foods in developing countries. However, I have tried
to show why food is different from fossil fuels and minerals, like
copper, in that the supply of food is not limited by natural bounds
on overall quantity. Rather, the efforts and ingenuity of farmers
and researchers are able to greatly increase world food supply to
meet even very large increases in the world demand for food.
Dr.
Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department
of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business,
The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in
1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George
W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.
To keep track
of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his web
site and blog.
To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening
the U.S. economy, check out the 2009 Milken Global Economic Conference
web page. Dr. Gary Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference
every year since it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes
in April 2009.
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Hard Assets: The Secret
to a Beautiful Life.
by Natalie
Pace.
 |
| Doug
Mazell. Mazell.com © 2008. |
Are you curious
about how to invest in the world where nothing feels safe? Perhaps
you chased NASDAQ in 2000, only to be popped in the DOT COM bust.
Or chased real estate in 2005, only to be run over with the costs
of keeping a spec house you couldn’t really afford in the first
place? It’s tough to make sense in a world where the pundits shrug
their shoulders and say, "Who knew?" when the excellent
sure-shots they were touting yesterday become goose eggs, instead
of gold.
How is it
that the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on October 29, 2009
that the economy was on the road to recovery, with advance estimates
putting GDP growth as high as 3.5%, but investors freaked out and
sold en masse the following day, creating a 250 point drop in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average? The headlines on both days did an
excellent job of explaining the phenomenon. 10.29.09: "US futures
perk up on GDP optimism." 10.30.09: "Economic worries
batter stocks." Yikes! How is the average person to make sense
of that!
In a herky-jerky
economy with dramatic mood swings that are destroying the average
person’s dreams, there is one love story still waiting to be told
– Hard Assets. I don’t mean strictly commodities, like gold (which
can have hidden costs to buy and carry and fluctuates dramatically
in value). I’m talking about things that stand the test of time
for wise, forward-thinking investors, like cash-positive, well-managed
investments in:
- Apartment
buildings
- Dry cleaners
- ATM machines
- Healthy fast-food
chains in high-demand areas
- Car washes
- Municipal
Bonds that are tied to water revenues (read my interview
with Mickie Siebert, in this ezine, for additional information).
(Water revenue muni bonds typically fund improvements in the sewage
and/or water systems, which is why I’m calling this ownership
in "hard assets," too.)
Even newbie
investors can have great success investing in hard assets (provided
they are smart about cash positive cost-to-carry). In 1980, Yoko
Ono was interviewed with John Lennon for Rolling Stone. In
her new role heading up John Lennon’s investments, Yoko was having
great luck expanding John’s net worth and had recently even sold
a cow for a quarter of a million dollars. When Rolling
Stone asked her how she’d accomplished that odd and spectacular
feat, she noted that she believed in investing in things you love.
"If you are going to make money, you have to make it with love,"
Ono said. "I just buy [things] we love, not the ones that people
say are good investments.’
John
D. Rockefeller really believed in creating a world-class university
system in the United States and put his money where that ethos was
-- creating two of the most prestigious institutions of our nation
– the University of Chicago and Rockefeller University. The University
of Chicago is also referred to as "Nobel Alley" because
79 laureates have ties, as faculty, former faculty and/or alumni,
to that school. Rockefeller University, specializing in biotech,
physiology and medicine, boasts 23 Nobel Prize winners.
Stick with
what you know, understand and have a passion for, and you increase
your odds of profiting. Even if you’re not bound for billion-dollar
grandeur, you can certainly start thinking about a legacy of your
own, and of making money while you sleep.
Consider
Cheyenne’s story (a fictional account, based upon many happy stories
that I’ve had the pleasure to hear)
When her father
died, Cheyenne, a 32-year-old singer/songwriter, inherited a lot
of money. She was advised by her father’s Certified Financial Advisor
that she needed to own her own home. He gave her a few months to
get it done.
Cheyenne
was told that houses were better investments than condos. She hadn’t
found anything she could afford in Malibu – she was living there
in a friend’s guesthouse -- not even a condo. She didn’t particularly
like East Hollywood, but, in terms of affordability, her choices,
at the time, were East Hollywood or Compton -- unless she wanted
to move to Kansas.
That is
how she ended up with a one-bedroom cottage in a neighborhood close
to the old Capitol Records Building, which had some nostalgic appeal
to her. After moving in, however, she learned that an entire, untoward
industry spread open its wares after ten p.m. on her street. Her
real estate agent assured her that the home was secure; it had bars
on all of the windows. But that was small comfort at midnight, when
Cadillacs and limos screeched to a halt alongside the sidewalk,
the booming bass and loud giggles were shushed to silence by edgy
salesmen, with neatly folded sachets of cocaine and heroine.
Cheyenne
had one thing that she loved on her property -- her blood orange
tree, which twined and twisted its way to three feet high in the
side sliver of grass that was wedged between the stucco of her house
and the giant cement wall that separated her property from her neighbors’
yard. The tree actually bore delicious fruit that stained her fingers
when she sucked on the sliced wedges. It reminded her of the bloodstained
sidewalks in the corner donut shop, where pigeons cooed and strutted,
begging for crumbs. Pigeons and blood were the only signs of life,
really, in what otherwise was a concrete landscape, full of cars
cutting through the side street on the way to Hollywood Boulevard
and the freeway. It was nothing like Malibu Beach.
Needless
to say, buyer’s remorse entombed her the first night Cheyenne lay
awake counting the cars. The intoxicated restraint of the constant
clandestine party of pimps, drug dealers and buyers was impossible
to sleep through – whispered screams really -- and there are only
so many blood oranges you can delight in before they turn sour in
the drink of desperation, rampant in the neighborhood. Being an
artist, Cheyenne might have been endured the insanity and even been
inspired to sing the lurid details of these midnight encounters,
if only she had the ability to safely step out (and away from it
all) for a quick glass of wine at the local bar every now and again.
So why did
she buy a home that she felt trapped in? Cheyenne felt as though
she had to buy at that particular time, in 2005, when the
real estate markets were so high, because she had inherited cash,
stocks and bonds from her father and the financial planner told
her to do it for tax purposes. The real estate agent also pressured
her to do it before December 31, 2005, so that she’d get 2005 prices,
saying that 2006 was bound to bring another run-up.
All in all,
Cheyenne was just following doctor’s orders – or at least the "specialists"
she trusted to steer her right in money matters. And that cottage
in East Hollywood looked almost quaint, at least during the daytime
when she did her tours, with the realtor who whipped her arms into
a frenzy about how the kitchen would pop with a little paint and
the delight of fresh, organic blood oranges ripe for the picking!
Malibu was
a pipedream – just like her career as a rock star always was. Who
was she fooling? Life was passing her by, while she sat around singing
and plucking to ever-dwindling audiences. Malibu was so far out
of reach that she crushed the vision completely every time a happy
thought tried to sneak in. She even quit calling most of her friends,
since she was too embarrassed to invite them over for a drink. Cheyenne
lived unhappily in that nightmare for three years, until one fall
morning, after news of a stock market crash.
For the
first time since her father’s passing, Cheyenne opened her brokerage
statement to discover that she had lost hundreds of thousands of
dollars in her stock portfolio. A large number of the bonds she
was holding had been reduced from A-rated to junk bond status. Her
hell-home was worth $200,000 less than she’d purchased it for. That
financial fallout made the drug dealers and pigeons and late night
limo screeching completely unbearable. She couldn’t even talk to
her broker without screaming because he was responsible for everything
– for ruining her entire life! Her father left her a fortune.
How could he lose it all overnight?
Cheyenne
didn’t know who to trust, what was right, but she did know that
she needed to learn more in order to get her life back on track.
It was almost a matter of life and death at this point. So, out
of desperation and because she liked the idea of investing in things
she actually cared about – like a home she wanted to wake up in
each morning -- Cheyenne came to my retreat. She had no real faith
that investing in what you love was even possible, and less assurance
that you could prosper with that strategy, but she respected my
ranking on Wall Street and the stories she’d heard about how I’d
turned my own life around.
Cheyenne
participated for three full days, sat up front, drew flow charts
using my information and asked more questions than the other hundred
attendees combined. But, by the end of the retreat, her language
was still bitter – full of blame and limitations/ excuses, more
than possibility.
There are
those who "get it," and race out right after the retreat,
make more money than it cost them to come and completely transform
their lives in a few short months. I know this sounds incredible,
but when you touch pleasure points in people – such as happens when
you give them permission to live in a home they love, or invest
in companies they really want to succeed (using a tried and true
system, not just racing in with blind faith), it’s like tapping
a geyser. Powerful results gush out immediately.
My own test
investment club doubled their money in less than two years. The
Green Goddess Investment Club, mostly actresses who had never touched
an investment before, scored 48% returns between the worst period
of the 2008-2009 recession. Even retired handymen were rebuilding
tens of thousands in a portfolio that had been decimated in the
downturn, after attending my investing educational retreat. And
for those of you who think this is a "chick strategy," typically
half of my students are men, and even options traders have reported
increased gains of over 50% in the wake of those three days as well,
calling their results "staggering."
I did not
think Cheyenne would be one of those success stories. I never saw
the light bulb spark in her eyes. She was still spitting out broker-speak
and scrunching up her eyes each time I explained, in careful detail,
my tried and true strategy. I’d seen this face before on real estate
agents who refused to believe that real estate, on average, makes
lower returns than stocks. They were caught up in the subprime fever
and honestly believed that real estate could double its value every
two years. That couple lost five spec homes and their own
residence to foreclosure in 2009 – essentially everything they’d
owned.
I marked
Cheyenne as someone who would just go back to doing whatever her
broker, husband, brother or dad told her to do – mostly so she could
blame them when it screwed up. She was an artist and didn’t want
to be too bothered with anything that took her away from writing
songs. And who can blame her really? Especially when investing in
things you care about seems so hard to believe in. You’ll rarely
hear that strategy touted on the news.
So, when
Cheyenne called me less than a year later, literally gushing on
the phone with ecstasy, I thought I must have mistaken her for another
Cheyenne in my class (as if that was even possible).
"Thank
you. Thank you. Thank you!" Cheyenne sang into the phone. "I’m
sitting in my new home, in Malibu, California, overlooking the ocean,
right as we speak!"
There was
no way I thought Cheyenne had really taken anything I said
to heart. The idea that She would carefully plot her way
out of East Hollywood and into Malibu and was now sitting in a dream
house in her dream city, that she owned… Well, even I had trouble
believing in that fairy tale. The next fantasy she would gush is
that she’d won a Grammy. (Have faith, Cheyenne. Tina Turner’s career
hit big after 40!)
For no
additional cash out of pocket or debt, Cheyenne went from a one-bedroom
hut in the midst of the concrete jungle to a five-bedroom pad on
the landside of Malibu, overlooking the ocean. The home had a backyard
big enough for a barbecue and a game of touch football. That sounds
impossible, so how did she do it? With a partner.
By selling
her place in the summer of 2008 and waiting to buy the Malibu home
late in the off-season that same year (during December divorce liquidation),
she only needed one partner to afford it – her best friend, Janet,
who was also a songwriter (and the daughter of a legendary actor).
The master bedrooms were on opposite sides of the house, so that
each woman had her privacy. And the three interior bedrooms were
small, but side-by-side, so that if they knocked out a wall, they
could have a decent-sized music studio, while still retaining one
room for guests.
Cheyenne’s
Certified Financial Planner was right about one thing. In the United
States, you get a very attractive write off for owning your own
home, which is something Cheyenne needed the year she inherited
her money and will continue to need going forward, now that she
knows how to employ Modern Portfolio Theory, diversified funds and
annual rebalancing in her stock portfolio.
In addition
to the tax considerations, it is critically important, especially
regarding your home, to invest in what you love because you’ll wake
up enriched every single day as a result. Imagine how much more
easily your dreams can come true, if dawn shines on your waking
smile and you actually believe in the beauty of your dreams.
Tricks
and Tips for Fiscal Fitness in your Hard Assets
Hard
assets provide diversification, appreciation potential (your home
can increase in value) and perhaps even a return on rents (apartment
buildings) or profits (solar farms, car washes and dry cleaners).
But they also require some tending, which is why there are a few
important considerations. You want your hard assets to have:
- Cash positive
operations with a cushion in case of recession, maintenance,
upgrades or competition.
- With regard
to your home, make sure that the cost of ownership, including
property taxes and insurance, doesn’t bury you in basic needs.
You should still be able to afford fun, charity, travel and education.
Don’t just be a slave to your mortgage.
- Outstanding
Management. Don’t get over-extended by adding two or more
full-time jobs to your workload. Make sure the new acquisition
has a strong management team and the cash-positive means to keep
them onboard.
- Start
with what you know and love. If you know about it, you’re
more likely to get one and two right. If you love it, you’ll have
a different way of valuing it. When you love something, you’ll
wait for the perfect opportunity (like Cheyenne did when looking
for her Malibu dream house) and you’ll never be tempted to sell
it on the cheap (like the realtors who had to walk away from five
spec homes).
Take-Away
Suggestions:
- After you
have your stocks and bonds, the next natural investment would
be to buy a home.
- After you
have your stocks, bonds, Certificates of Deposit and home, the
next natural plan would be to find some easy, low-maintenance,
stable, cash-positive business or investment that you are really
going to love to own.
- Geeks are
going to do better with PC Malls, car collectors with classic
cars and pet friends will do better with pet shops. What’s your
passion?
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and CEO of one of the most respected,
independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She
has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has
partnered content with
Forbes.com,
Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more. She
has appeared on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC,
Time Magazine, More Magazine, USA Today, NPR and national radio
shows. Ask her your money questions on her weekly radio show on
BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
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Leveraged
and Inverse ETFs: Specialized Products with Extra Risks for Buy-and-Hold
Investors.
Investor
Alert by FINRA.org.
The
SEC staff and FINRA are issuing this Alert because we believe individual
investors may be confused about the performance objectives of leveraged
and inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Leveraged and inverse
ETFs typically are designed to achieve their stated performance
objectives on a daily basis. Some investors might invest in these
ETFs with the expectation that the ETFs may meet their stated daily
performance objectives over the long term as well. Investors should
be aware that performance of these ETFs over a period longer than
one day can differ significantly from their stated daily performance
objectives.
What
Are Exchange-Traded Funds?
ETFs
are typically registered investment companies whose shares represent
an interest in a portfolio of securities that track an underlying
benchmark or index. (Some ETFs that invest in commodities, currencies,
or commodity- or currency-based instruments are not registered as
investment companies.) Unlike traditional mutual funds, shares of
ETFs typically trade throughout the day on a securities exchange
at prices established by the market.
ETFs
have evolved over the years, becoming more complex. Investors considering
ETFs should evaluate each investment closely and not assume all
ETFs are alike. In the last few years, a number of leveraged and
inverse ETFs have been introduced to the market that are very different
from the traditional variety of ETFs.
What
are Leveraged and Inverse ETFs?
Leveraged
ETFs seek to deliver multiples of the performance of the index or
benchmark they track. Inverse ETFs (also called "short" funds) seek
to deliver the opposite of the performance of the index or benchmark
they track. Like traditional ETFs, some leveraged and inverse ETFs
track broad indices, some are sector-specific, and others are linked
to commodities, currencies, or some other benchmark. Inverse ETFs
often are marketed as a way for investors to profit from, or at
least hedge their exposure to, downward moving markets.
Leveraged
inverse ETFs (also known as "ultra short" funds) seek to achieve
a return that is a multiple of the inverse performance of the underlying
index. An inverse ETF that tracks a particular index, for example,
seeks to deliver the inverse of the performance of that index, while
a 2x (two times) leveraged inverse ETF seeks to deliver double the
opposite of that index’s performance. To accomplish their objectives,
leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue a range of investment strategies
through the use of swaps, futures contracts, and other derivative
instruments.
Most
leveraged and inverse ETFs "reset" daily, meaning that they are
designed to achieve their stated objectives on a daily basis. Their
performance over longer periods of time—over weeks or months or
years—can differ significantly from the performance (or inverse
of the performance) of their underlying index or benchmark during
the same period of time. This effect can be magnified in volatile
markets. As the examples below demonstrate, an ETF that is set up
to deliver twice the performance of a benchmark from the close of
trading on Day 1 to the close of trading on Day 2 will not necessarily
achieve that goal over weeks, months, or years.
Real-Life
Examples
The
following two real-life examples illustrate how returns on a leveraged
or inverse ETF over longer periods can differ significantly from
the performance (or inverse of the performance) of their underlying
index or benchmark during the same period of time.
- Between
December 1, 2008, and April 30, 2009, a particular index gained
2 percent. However, a leveraged ETF seeking to deliver twice
that index's daily return fell by 6 percent—and an inverse ETF
seeking to deliver twice the inverse of the index's daily return
fell by 26 percent.
-
- During
that same period, an ETF seeking to deliver three times the
daily return of a different index fell 53 percent, while the
underlying index actually gained around 8 percent. An ETF seeking
to deliver three times the inverse of the index's daily return
declined by 90 percent over the same period.
How
can this apparent breakdown between longer-term index returns and
ETF returns happen? Here’s a hypothetical example: let’s say that
on Day 1, an index starts with a value of 100 and a leveraged ETF
that seeks to double the return of the index starts at $100. If
the index drops by 10 points on Day 1, it has a 10 percent loss
and a resulting value of 90. Assuming it achieved its stated objective,
the leveraged ETF would therefore drop 20 percent on that day and
have an ending value of $80. On Day 2, if the index rises 10 percent,
the index value increases to 99. For the ETF, its value for Day
2 would rise by 20 percent, which means the ETF would have a value
of $96. On both days, the leveraged ETF did exactly what it was
supposed to do—it produced daily returns that were two times the
daily index returns. But let’s look at the results over the 2-day
period: the index lost 1 percent (it fell from 100 to 99) while
the 2x leveraged ETF lost 4 percent (it fell from $100 to $96).
That means that over the two day period, the ETF's negative returns
were 4 times as much as the two-day return of the index instead
of 2 times the return.
Things
to Consider Before Investing
The
best form of investor protection is to clearly understand leveraged
or inverse ETFs before investing in them. No matter how you initially
hear about them, it’s important to read the prospectus, which provides
detailed information related to the ETFs’ investment objectives,
principal investment strategies, risks, and costs. The SEC’s EDGAR
system, as well as search engines, can help you locate a specific
ETF prospectus. You can also find the prospectuses on the websites
of the financial firms that issue a given ETF, as well as through
your broker.
You
should also consider seeking the advice of an investment professional.
Be sure to work with someone who understands your investment objectives
and tolerance for risk. Your investment professional should understand
these complex products, be able to explain whether or how they fit
with your objectives, and be willing to monitor your investment.
Before investing in these instruments, ask:
- How
does the ETF achieve its stated objectives? And what are the
risks? Ask about—and be sure you understand—the techniques
the ETF uses to achieve its goals. For example, engaging in
short sales and using swaps, futures contracts, and other derivatives
can expose the ETF—and by extension ETF investors—to a host
of risks.
- What
happens if I hold longer than one trading day? While there
may be trading and hedging strategies that justify holding these
investments longer than a day, buy-and-hold investors with an
intermediate or long-term time horizon should carefully consider
whether these ETFs are appropriate for their portfolio. As discussed
above, because leveraged and inverse ETFs reset each day, their
performance can quickly diverge from the performance of the
underlying index or benchmark. In other words, it is possible
that you could suffer significant losses even if the long-term
performance of the index showed a gain.
- Is there
a risk that an ETF will not meet its stated daily objective?
There is always a risk that not every leveraged or inverse ETF
will meet its stated objective on any given trading day. Be
sure you understand the impact an investment in the ETF could
have on the performance of your portfolio, taking into consideration
your goals and your tolerance for risk.
- What
are the costs? Leveraged or inverse ETFs may be more costly
than traditional ETFs. Use FINRA’s Fund
Analyzer to estimate the impact of fees and expenses
on your investment. The SEC’s Mutual
Fund Cost Calculator can also help you estimate
and compare costs of owning mutual funds.
- What
are the tax consequences? Leveraged or inverse ETFs may
be less tax-efficient than traditional ETFs, in part because
daily resets can cause the ETF to realize significant short-term
capital gains that may not be offset by a loss. Be sure to check
with your tax advisor about the consequences of investing in
a leveraged or inverse ETF.
As
with all investments, it pays to do your own homework. Only invest
if you are confident the product can help you meet your investment
objectives and you are knowledgeable and comfortable with the risks
associated with these specialized ETFs.
About
FINRA:
The
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest
independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in
the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage
firms, about 172,000 branch offices and approximately 646,000 registered
securities representatives. Created in July 2007 through the
consolidation of NASD and the member regulation, enforcement and
arbitration functions of the New York Stock Exchange, FINRA is dedicated
to investor protection and market integrity through effective and
efficient regulation and complementary compliance and technology-based
services.
To
receive the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor
information sign
up for Investor News.
|
|
Doing
What We Love.
by Gary
Kobat.
 |
| Gary
Kobat “on the wheel” of Lance Armstrong |
If there are a
few things I've learned in life, through our thousands
of experiences together the past decade, is that the more we
let go, the more the Universe gives to us, the more that arrives
magically for us, and the more that manifests.
Happiness in
Life is truly supposed to feel downwind and not like
an against-the-wind experience.
In life: as
in riding our bike: we can't hold on too tight; can't stay clipped
in all the time, and as we have all experienced:
When we're
going too slowly, we'll fall over. We must keep
on moving.
You
must know by now that absolutely no one else truly knows and
feels what you're here to accomplish.
You need to
give yourself permission to hear your inner guidance and ignore
the outside influences.
The beauty of
the end of the year and the beginning of a new one is that we all
start with a clean slate.
Many people
are looking outside themselves for the answers.
But when in
alignment with universal law, art, and love: the answers are right
inside, next to the power you were given when you were born.
Feeling good…
is the work.
When we’re connected…everything
feels good.
It's easy to
have faith in people when they have proven themselves; tougher to
BEFORE they have. The key to motivating? Believe in yourself before
you succeed.
Gary Kobat
About
Gary Kobat:
Gary
is the tough-love Coach, no-nonsense Trainer, and World-Class
Athlete whose energy for life has inspired, educated, and empowered
lasting personal and professional change for thousands. He
believes that we can re-invent ourselves by living life
without-limits; understanding that the universe is
full of infinite possibilities; that everything we need is inside:
right here & right now; and by never, ever, ever giving-up.
Gary's client
list includes the who's who in film, business, and sport. For the
past decade he has quietly mentored the spirituality, health, and
longevity of Jim Carrey, Will Ferrell, Mariska Hargitay, and
countless others.
You can sign
up for a free copy of Gary’s e-book at GaryKobat.com.
Follow him on Facebook
and Twitter
for daily tweets of inspiration.
|
|
Autism
and ADHD. Learn Natural Ways to Reduce the Symptoms.
by Dr.
Dennis Maness. HealthWalk.com.
1 in 100 children
now are diagnosed with autism and this number is growing.
1 in 76 boys are now "autistic." Adults can also have
these health issues. Learn what you can do to reduce the symptoms
of Autism and ADHD.
What
are the early signs and what actions can I take to circumvent ADHD
before it has a chance to become resident in my child?
TAGS:
Lazy, Unorganized, Impulsive, Problematic, Emotional
Have any of those
words been used to describe you? Has anyone described your child
using those words? Log online to take a self-test
for ADD/ADHD.
Have you just
been trying to cope with the behavior because you don’t like your
options for treatment? Attention
disorders, also known as ADD/ADHD, affect children and adults.
- About 60%
of children diagnosed with an attention disorder continue to exhibit
symptoms as adults.
Hyperactivity
and inattention have been well studied and found to be a nervous
system disorder.
- Nothing is
worse than knowing that you are capable of completing a task exceptionally,
but not being able to because your own thoughts and actions are
out of your control. Brain chemicals, called neurotransmitters,
are crucial in balancing out the "miss fires" in the
brain.
I measure Neurotransmitters
utilizing a EEG machine. QEEG Brain Mapping is a diagnostic procedure
that records electrical activity in the brain. Most people are familiar
with the EKG that represents the electrical activity of the heart.
EEG represents the electrical activity of the brain. It serves as
a basis for identifying variations in brain function that are associated
with different types of neurological disorders including Attention
Deficit Disorder, Learning Disabilities, Depression, Dementia, Head
Injury, Obsessive/Compulsive Disorder, Autism and bipolar disorder.
;
Different disorders
have their own unique behavior. For example below are the frequencies
of Autism. One
in 73 boys are being diagnosed with Autism. Why?
There is debate
as to the cause of Autism. One of the strongest suggestions has
been metals in the vaccines. This is one area I feel is very strong
that should and is being looked into that may soon explain many
fetal and early childhood issues.

Neurotransmitters:
ADHD is among
the most common neurotransmitter-related conditions. Others include
anxiety disorders, compulsive behaviors, insomnia, depression and
migraines.
Neurotransmitters
are chemicals that relay signals between nerve cells, called "neurons."
These are present throughout the body and are required for proper
brain and body functions. Serious
health problems can occur if neurotransmitter levels are too high
or too low.
Environmental
and biological factors — including stress, poor diet, neurotoxins
or genetics — can cause imbalances in the levels of neurotransmitter
chemicals in the brain. Imbalances can trigger or exacerbate ADHD
symptoms.
If left untreated,
children with ADHD can develop self-destructive behaviors. They
can fall behind in academics and are more likely to drop out of
school. They are more prone to altercations with authority figures
and law enforcement officials, and to experiment with drugs and
alcohol. They also are more likely to become injured in accidents
due to risk-taking.
Most of the
drug-based methods used to treat behavioral issues include chemicals
that either imitate a neurotransmitter or redistribute existing
neurotransmitters.
Many affect
norepinephrine, and some affect other neurotransmitters like GABA,
serotonin, or dopamine. It is generally believed that drugs supporting
norepinephrine signaling will be beneficial when behavioral issues
result from a lack of norepinephrine and that GABA supporting drugs
will be effective when a person's symptoms are caused by a lack
of GABA. While the idea of matching a drug to a chemical imbalance
is generally supported, the vast majority of healthcare providers
prescribe psychological drugs based on a patient's symptoms and
few try to match a drug to a biochemical imbalance. This may explain
why some drugs are ineffective for some patients.
Neurotransmitter
function can also be supported with nutrient-based programs. Neurotransmitters
are made from various components of food in a normal, healthy diet.
Increasing
the amounts of these dietary constituents can help maintain normal
neurotransmitter levels.
While no program
can guarantee success for everyone, it is worthwhile to effectively
match a drug-based and/or nutrient-based program to the specific
needs of the individual. Join
Dr. Maness online Wednesday, November 6, 2009 on BlogTalkRadio.com
for the Natalie Pace Health is Wealth call-in show. Be sure to write
down any questions you might have, and ask them firsthand then and
there!
Get more information
at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
Please note:
This article has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration.
The information herein is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure
or prevent any disease.
HealthWalk
is a separate entity from NataliePace.com and NataliePace.com offers
no guarantees of, nor do we endorse, their products and/or services.
About
Dr. Dennis Maness:
Dr.
Maness holds a PhD in Education, Master of Science in Neuro-Biology
and Bachelor of Science in education from Southern Baptist University,
Atlanta, GA. Dr. Maness is the developer of the Neuro Stimulation
Sound Therapy and the Learn It FASTER cognitive processing brain
games. He is Board Certified, Neuro therapy, Neuro feedback and
Biofeedback Instructor and a Diplomat of Neurotherapy and Biofeedback
Certification Board. Dr. Maness has worked with over two million
students of all ages in cognitive development via live workshops,
teaching classes and over the Internet since 1997. He pioneered
discoveries in Brain Wave frequencies that to aid in memory and
cognitive processing.
For more support
and to establish a base line on your health and toxin level, come
to HealthWalk.
Our integrated health and wellness center is designed to help you
identify your current health condition and to support you in boosting
your immune system to rid the body of toxins and other impairments
to vibrant health.
HealthWalk,
the leading edge, non-invasive integrated healthcare center and
products company, has specially priced Health and Wellness Products
and Services for NataliePace.com subscribers. HealthWalk is offering
10% discount for NataliePace.com subscribers on all individual HealthWalk
products and services. Please mention the discount code, HWNP upon
ordering.

Call
HealthWalk at 877-255-4703 or email info@healthwalk.com
www.healthwalk.com
HealthWalk,
5825Avenida Encinas suite 111, Carlsbad CA 92008
You
can lose everything in life and make it all back - With one exception…
Your Health
HealthWalk
offers customized, non-invasive and effective support to enable
your body’s own innate powers to regain and enhance health, performance
and healing. HealthWalk is
dedicated to supporting and empowering you to achieve and maintain
vibrant wellness. HealthWalk
is a non-invasive, integrative healthcare facility with a global
umbrella of leading edge technologies, services, natural supplements
and products backed by over 20 years of research. HealthWalk
is based in Carlsbad, CA.
www.healthwalk.com
Phone 877.255.4703 info@healthwalk.com
|
|
Worried About Your Job? Give Yourself a
Raise.
by Natalie
Pace.
7
Easy Ways to Profit During the Bail Outs, Booms and Busts of Modern
Life.
 |
| Stacie
Isabella Turk. © 2008 Ribbonhead. Makeup/ Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbell
|
If you are worried
about money, about your job, about your nest egg, et al., you’re
not alone these days. Almost one in ten of us is out of work, and
we all know someone who is having a tough time making ends met (or
moving in with relatives). Whether we are really on the road to
recovery, or stuck in a slow growth economy, there are a few important
strategies that you can employ right here and now that will help
you to profit in any market – bull or bear.
Even if you
are on unemployment, it is important to continue the habits of prosperity
and abundance, rather than being sucked into poverty consciousness
– while you continue to look for gainful employment.
The
7 strategies highlighted below work wonderfully in any market.
- Give yourself
a raise. When you tithe 10% to your Month in Rome Plan (formerly
called your retirement plan), you are effectively giving yourself
a raise. This is money that will not get burned through on bills,
given away to others or disappear without you ever knowing where
it went. If you start this healthy fiscal habit as a teen, you’ll
be ready to buy your first home within two or three years – long
before any of your friends are. If you’re middle-aged, you’ll
be able to afford college for the kids. As an elder, you’ve got
extra protection against any health issues that might come up.
Your nest egg, if properly set up, is protected against debt collectors,
so even if you are "in debt" this habit is very important,
both as a habit and to keep your own base of assets, no matter
what.
- Be an
and person. Successful investors have real estate,
stocks, bonds, Treasury bills and gold. They don’t chase
the investment du jour, go all in on any one type, take big risks
or consider their small business "an investment" (your
business should make enough to pay your bills, including your
tithe to the nest egg, not vice versa). This is "money while
you sleep," i.e. low-risk and low-maintenance. Read You
Vs. Wall Street to learn how to identify attractive
investments over duds. Yes, even if you’re worried about your
job, the best attitude is to focus on getting a good return on
your investments, not on worrying that we’ve entered the Apocalypse.
- Modern
Portfolio Theory. Always keep a percentage equal to your
age safe – not in stocks at all. During recessions, overweight
10-20% additional safe. (Using this strategy, losses were
less than 11% for 50 year-olds in 2008 and 2009.) Diversify the
remaining money into 10 targeted funds (ETFs may be a better fit
than mutual funds). The best mix is: 4 hot industries and 6 that
are diversified by size and style. If you have ownership in small,
medium and large companies, value and growth and
industries that are in favor, it is much easier to see and capture
your gains than if you own a big blob – one over-fat fund with
everything and the kitchen sink in it.
.jpg)
.jpg)
- Annual
Rebalancing. Draw a pie chart of what you are supposed to
have (according to #3). Look at a pie chart of what you have.
Make what you have look the way it is supposed to look, by "rebalancing"
once a year. You will find that the money you have been tithing
into your safe portion is ready to be deployed, and you should
see some areas that have worked wonderfully (and others that need
more attention). This works much better than "dollar cost
averaging" and "buy and hold."
- Avoid
the Bailout Index. Once you get one through four set up, you’re
ready to start making the smaller adjustments that will make all
the difference in the world. In 2008 and 2009, the leading Blue
Chip Index (the one you likely owned in your nest egg called the
Dow Jones Industrial Average), had four out of thirty companies
that were bailed out. Hmmm. Either the index manager has trouble
adding or there is cronyism at play. So, if trusting Wall Street
to pick your companies isn’t a good plan, what is? Get educated.
My stock newsletter warned to get out of Fannie Mae in 2003,
to avoid General Motors in 2004, that real estate was poised
to fall off a cliff in 2005, that insiders were jumping
ship from Lehman Bros. in 2006 (two years before it went
bankrupt). You can read about my strategies for identifying leaders
over laggards in You
Vs. Wall Street. You can learn about them directly
from me at a 3-day retreat, where you will learn strategies that
will work for the rest of your life. Call 866.4767442 or email
Heather@NataliePace.com
to learn more about our retreats.
- Put Your
Money Where Your Heart Is. This isn’t just a fluffy idea.
When you invest in things you actually buy, you are investing
in companies that are getting a lot of things right. When you
invest blindly, that is how you can lose money on companies that
are struggling to compete. (Those companies advertise more on
television and pay higher commissions to brokers, to keep you
invested, instead of competing for your investment by making a
better product.) At the end of the day, it is product sales, not
ads and commissions, that fuel the success of a corporation. Believe
it or not, all the information you need is easy to find out with
three easy clicks on your computer (which is why my 3-day investing
retreat is so popular). You’ll never be duped again!
- Hard Assets.
Once your nest egg is fat and healthy, it’s time to start looking
at hard assets. Again, "money while you sleep" is the
ticket here. Would you like to own student housing near a great
university? Make sure that the housing can support itself and
a manager, including upkeep on the property, taxes, insurance,
etc. with enough cushion that increased costs in any of these
areas won’t kill you. (Income property can be a great strategy,
but most people underestimate the costs of carrying and maintaining
it.) Other hard assets include healthy, cash positive staple businesses,
such as dry cleaners, car washes, ATM machines, etc.
Using this plan,
you’d have capitalized on all of the booms of the last decade, and
minimized losses during the busts. You’d have more than doubled
your money on the hot industry of DOT COMs between 1998 and 2000.

Your maximum
losses during the horrible DOT COM bust of 2000-2002, when investors
lost up to 75% of their DOT COM investments, would have been less
than 10% of your nest egg.

Your gains in
2003 in NASDAQ would have been 50%!

Your real estate
gains between 2002 and 2005 would have doubled.

The hottest
industry of 2007, clean energy, earned almost 60 cents on every
dollar.

And, again,
since you’re rebalancing annually, capturing your gains and keeping
your investments in balance, you are protected against the recessions.
Modern Portfolio
Theory, 10 ETF diversification and annual rebalancing works in bull
and bear markets!
To sign up for
the next Get Rich and Enrich Retreat, call 866.476.7442 or email
Heather@NataliePace.com
NOW.
|
|
Fun on the Wall Street Rollercoaster..
by Natalie
Pace.
Should
you capture your 25% NASDAQ gains?
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
November
2, 2009
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Monday, 10.30.09
|
Gains 3-yr, 2-yr & 10 mo.
|
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 9,034.69
|
Dow: 9,712.73
|
-22% & -25.5%
& +7.5%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 1,632.21
|
Nasdaq: 2,045.11
|
-15.6% & -21.6%
& +25%
|
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 931.80
|
S&P: 1,036.19
|
-27% & -28%
& +11%
|
Wall Street
Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547 (3.9.09)
|
14,164 (10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ Composite Index
|
1,114 (10.9.02)
|
5,060.34 (3.10.00)
|
Hot
News on Cool Stocks Highlights!
546% gains on U.S. Gold!
NASDAQ Leads Returns, With 25% Gains -- compared to +23% rise
in gold prices and only +7.5% for the Dow Jones
 |
| Stacie
Isabella Turk. © 2008 Ribbonhead. Makeup/ Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbell
|
Industrial
Average.
87% of the positions listed in 2008 & 2009 are in the money.
Woo hoo!
TipsTraders
ranked me #11, above over 830 A-list pundits, in 2008.
Market
Update:
My
mid-month update on November 12, 2009, when I originally asked if
investors should capture their NASDAQ gains of 31% tells
the real story here. Investors who took my nudge to heart are 6%
richer than their friends are today...
The Bureau of
Economic Analysis reported on October 29, 2009 that the economy
was on the road to recovery, with advance estimates putting GDP
growth as high as 3.5%. That news created a one-day surge of almost
200 point in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But investors freaked
out and sold en masse the following day, dragging it down for a
250 point drop. Yikes!
So, how do you
have fun on the Wall Street rollercoaster? Start by acknowledging
that you are on a rollercoaster! If you’re expecting a Sunday walk
in the park and suddenly you’re whipsawed around, it’s enough to
make you vomit! The chart below illustrates the essence of what
I mean when I say that buy and hold doesn’t work in a slow growth
economy that is fueled by free money and boom/bust cycles. Note
that "walk in the park/buy and hold" investors have lost
a lot of dough over the last few years.

The American
economy has actually been a down-trending rollercoaster for the
last ten years.

And, as long
as the policy is free, easy money – whether it is linked to bailouts
or innovative mortgage loans – there will be boom and bust cycles.
Interest rates have been at 40-year lows for the last ten years,
and the Federal Open Market Committee plans to continue that accommodative
policy (low interest rates) until the economy starts showing signs
of sustainable life. On September 23, 2009, The Federal Open Market
Committee issued a press release, stating, "The Committee will
maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4
percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are
likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds
rate for an extended period." If you strap yourself in and
prepare for the resulting boom/bust rise and fall, you might actually
find yourself giddy with delight.
This has nothing
to do with "day-trading." Modern Portfolio Theory, fund
diversification and annual rebalancing is no more difficult than
buying and holding, and works infinitely better. This strategy is
"easy as a pie chart," rather than "easy as throwing
a dart, while blind-folded." If you were always keeping a percentage
to your age safe and were capturing the gains you made annually,
you’d be richer today than you were ten years ago. If you were buying
and holding, you lost money in your stock portfolio.
Here is how
it works.
- Start by
drawing a circle on a page.
- Now partition
off "your age," i.e. 50% if you are 50. 25% if you are
25.
- Add another
10-20% safe, since we are still in a recession. (More safe if
you’re scared, less if you like more risk.)
- Diversify
the remaining pie into at least 10 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Have: 1) small cap growth, 2) small cap value, 3) mid cap growth,
4) mid cap value, 5) large cap growth, 6) large cap value and
then four hot industries, such as gold, information technology,
clean energy and biotechnology.
.jpg)
- Draw another
pie chart of what you actually own in your IRA, 401(k), etc. Your
bonds, T-bills, savings, money markets and CDs belong on the safe
side. Your stocks (mutual funds, individual companies, ETFs, bond
funds, etc.) can then be divided into the 10 slices as described
in #4.
- Ideally,
you want to rearrange what you currently have into what you should
have. That can mean that you have to reallocate in your 401(k)
or sell and buy into other ETFs in your IRA.
- If you have
31% gains in your NASDAQ funds, then reallocating means that you
are actually capturing those gains and putting the majority of
it safe, outside of the slice of NASDAQ pie that you should own.
NASDAQ stocks should not be taking up 1/3 of your investments
if you are 50 years old. That makes you too vulnerable to a downturn.
- Make sure
that you continue to tithe 10% of your income into your Buy My
Own Island fund. (This money can go into your money market account
or Treasury Bills, until you rebalance. That way you are prepared
for keeping an additional 1% safe, as you age.)
- Rebalance
now, and again at the end of January 2010. Why? Because for the
last two years, the markets have been lower at the end of the
year than they were in October. You’ll never be sorry that you
took your gains early and often in this volatile, down-trending
marketplace.

Market
Performance October 1, 2007 through January 1, 2008

Market
Performance October 1, 2008 through January 1, 2009
Modern Portfolio
Theory, diversified funds (size/style and hot industries) and annual
rebalancing are made easy-as-a-pie chart in my book, You
vs. Wall Street. Readers say Put Your Money Where
Your Heart Is is a "must-read financial bible," and
"just what some readers may need to find themselves exponentially
richer in the coming years." You
vs. Wall Street is available wherever books are
sold.
I also teach
these strategies in a 3-day investing retreat. Investors who attend
the retreat walk out with a blueprint that works for the rest of
their life. They have selected the exact ten funds they are most
interested in, and know how to select new funds as different industries
become the next hot thing. They know which months are best for profit-taking
and which for buying back in, historically, to maximize the potential
for capturing gains annually.
If you are
interested in hosting a 3-day Get Rich and Green investing retreat
for your friends or group, please call me at 866.476.7442 or email
info@NataliePace.com. Groups like the Green Goddess Investment
Club are reporting 47% gains over the last 12 months, using my strategies.
"With the valuable guidance of our mentor Natalie Pace we out
performed the bear market with the extraordinary result of 48% GAINS!!!!!!"
Cindy Ciscowski, President, Green Goddess Investment Club.
This method
of having a plan that works in bull and bear markets is far easier
than trying to read crystal balls. If you’ve lost money in stocks,
real estate, et al., chances are you were following trends, instead
of following a well-laid plan. Time to invest in wisdom and education
because investing can and should be money while you sleep, i.e.,
low risk and low maintenance. It should not be the biggest stress
in your life – something that keeps you awake at night, or the reason
you’ve gone on blood pressure medication.
Track Record
of our Reporting
While
the markets have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists
below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years.
81 positions listed below – 87% -- have delivered impressive
gains over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial
Average is trading lower than it was ten years ago! Only
twelve of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting,
which is quite impressive given the horrible market drop of 2008-2009.
Yes, many, but
not all, of our top performers in 2008 and 2009 are shorts, which
is why we added options training to the retreat. Remember that the
trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing years.
3 out
of 6 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains
(Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.
MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of
News Corp’s success with shareholders that year. So three
out of six are superperformers, and one (Myspace) performed well
above the market. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top
on Wall Street. (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02,
and featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)
TipsTraders.com
continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with
their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied
the #1 position and have consistently scored at the top of their
830 A-list pundits. I scored a #11 ranking for 2008. Some of my
best picks include: Google (GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio
Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
+107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in
2008 and 2009 were put options – on the Cooling Off list -- which
is why I added options training to my 3-day Get Rich and Green Investing
Retreat. Look on the Cooling Off list for details on the incredible
gains options investors enjoyed on Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Toll
Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.
This stock newsletter
was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
- Avoid General
Motors and other American auto-manufacturers in 2004
- Get out
of Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Trim back
on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Lehman
Bros’
colossal insider selling in 2006
Market
Movers:
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds
rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the 9.23.09
meeting press release, the Federal Reserve Board further elaborated
on the reasoning behind the rock bottom rates, writing: "Information
received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests
that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. ...
Economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels
of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
That is Fed-speak
for "We are doing everything to stimulate the economy, which
should work eventually, but the situation is still rough, folks."
Deflation is no longer much of a concern, and the Feds think that
inflation "will remain subdued for some time," though
some economists warn that this is a big bear to be considered once
recovery really kicks in.
The Milken
Institute estimates that the bailout to date has already
cost the taxpayer $9.8 trillion.
The next FOMC
meeting takes place on November 3-4, 2009.
Advance
GDP growth rates for 2Q 2009 were positive growth (for the
first time since the 4th quarter of 2007) of 3.5%, according
to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Final GDP growth rates for 2Q
2009 and 1Q 2009 were a decline of -0.7% & -5.5%, respectively.
The economy contracted at -6.3% in the 4th quarter of
2008. What happened between 2008 and 3Q 2009? Massive government
spending is the main driver of the economy at this point. The Cash
for Clunkers Program is responsible for almost half of the GDP growth,
both in government incentives and stimulated, incentive-related
consumer spending.
Second estimate
GDP growth for 3Q 2009 will be released on November 24, 2009 at
8:30 a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall
Street. No surprise that the 3rd quarter of 2009 was
the first positive GDP report since the 4th quarter of
2007, however, if the second estimates come in lower than 3.5%,
investors could lose confidence (and vice versa if the numbers are
revised upward). For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1.
FOMC Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the September 23, 2009 FOMC meeting for yourself? You
can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2009 calendar is: November 3-4, 2009
(Tuesday-Wednesday), December 15-16, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), January
26-27, 2010 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 16 (Tuesday), April 27-28
(Tuesday-Wednesday), June 22-23 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 10 (Tuesday),
September 21 (Tuesday), November 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December
14 (Tuesday), January 25-26, 2011 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more:
Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. Be
the first to know the dates of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks
Update and the publication date of our next ezine. Join me on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com.
Don’t miss
the Health is Wealth Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com
Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2009, at 9:00 a.m. PT. This show is on Natural
Cures to Reduce the Symptoms of Autism and ADD. Get call-in and
log-in instructions at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
This is a Q&A format, where you can call in or Twitter in your
questions. Be sure to write down your most pressing questions now,
and become a friend to Natalie Pace on Twitter at Twitter.com/NataliePace,
so that you can Tweet on the show.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page! What
are your thoughts on the recent tragic deaths at the Spiritual Warrior
Camp in Sedona, Arizona?
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending)
and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement is scheduled for November 5, 2009 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
(November 19, 2009 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual
stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
Ener1
(symbol: HEV)
Satcon
(symbol: SATC)
Sunpower
Solar (SPWRA)
Profit-Taking
(Take your profits early and often):
KCI
Concepts (KCI) +59%
New
Zealand Dollar Currency ETF (BNZ) +35%
U.S.
Gold (UXG) +546%
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
None
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
| Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
11.2.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
American Superconductor
|
Yes
|
AMSC
|
$30.70
|
$32.68
|
$37.58
$8.22
|
+6%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should benefit from President Obama’s
commitment to build a "a new smart grid to carry electricity
from coast to coast."
1Q 2009 earnings on 7.30.09: Sales
were up 83% in the 1st quarter over last year.
Looking for a bad market day as a re-entry point. GAAP net
income of $1.8 million, compared to a loss of $6.1 million
a year ago. Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities
and restricted cash at June 30, 2009 were $103.2 million.
"A solid mix of wind power
and power grid business fueled another record quarter at American
Superconductor," said Greg Yurek, AMSC’s founder and
chief executive officer. "We achieved a strong increase
in power grid-related D-VAR® system revenue and our largest
customer, Sinovel, requested delivery of additional wind turbine
core electrical components during the first quarter to meet
increased demand in China for its 1.5 megawatt wind turbines."
Signed new $100 million contract
with Sinovel, China’s leading wind turbine producer, for core
electrical components to be utilized in Sinovel’s 3 megawatt
(MW) wind turbines, known as the SL3000.
|
|
Ener1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$4.92
|
$4.92
|
$9.49
$2.35
|
--
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Won an award of $118.5 million from
the Obama Administration to develop batteries for hybrid and
electric vehicles. Was mentioned by name by President Obama
in his remarks of August 5, 2009.
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$2.00
(3.2.09)
|
$2.23
|
$14.55
$1.90
|
-72% &
+11%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.
Hoku's key project schedule (based
upon work resuming in October): completing a reactor demonstration
in December 2009, completing construction of 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon production capacity in March 2010, and
completing construction of the full 4,000 metric tons of capacity,
including on-site trichlorosilane (TCS) production, in December
2010.
On September 29, 2009, Hoku announced
that Tianwei was investing in Hoku and debt financing would
be provided by Tianwei and China Construction Bank for the
construction and development of Hoku's polysilicon production
facility in Pocatello, Idaho. Hoku confirmed that the $50
million in debt, plus prepayments from its existing customers,
is expected to be sufficient to complete construction to the
point where it could commence shipments to customers, and
it intends to delay any additional financing until such time.
On the basis of these funding sources, Hoku reported it is
preparing to issue orders to resume full scale plant construction
at an accelerated pace upon closing of the financing, which
is expected to occur in October 2009.
You can see the facility’s progress
on the home page at HokuCorp.com.
|
|
Kinetic Concepts, Inc.
|
No
|
KCI
|
$38.81
$21.05
(12.1.08)
|
$33.41
|
$43.00
$17.86
|
-14% &
+59%
|
|
Read the article, "Beauty
is Skin Deep,"
in Vol. 5, issue 5. If you made a profit of 72%, take your
profits early and often!
REPORTED 2Q 2009 EARNINGS ON 7.21.09.
2009: Kinetic Concepts, Inc. KCI today reported second quarter
2009 total revenue of $491.3 million, an increase of 6% from
the second quarter of 2008. Total revenue for the first half
of 2009 was $961.4 million, a 9% increase from the prior-year
period. Net earnings for the second quarter of 2009 were $58.1
million, or $0.82 per diluted share, compared to a net loss
of $4.8 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, for the same
period of 2008.
Cash and cash equivalents: $235.3
million. Total long-term debt outstanding at June 30, 2009
was $1.396 billion on a GAAP-basis.
FDA approved ABThera™ Open
Abdomen Negative Pressure Therapy System on June 11, 2009.
The new therapy has already been launched, according to Catherine
M. Burzik, KCI’s President and CEO. "I am very pleased
to see the progress of KCI’s business in light of continued
economic and competitive pressures," said Catherine Burzik,
President and Chief Executive Officer of KCI. "KCI continues
to meet its goals in terms of innovation, global market expansion
and operational efficiency. We recently introduced our highly
innovative open abdominal wound system, AbThera, to operating
room surgeons in the U.S. and Europe and we are on track with
our plans for the launch of V.A.C. Therapy in Japan. We look
forward to the second half of the year with confidence."
KCI won its suit in the U.S. against
Smith and Nephew to prevent them from selling foam dressing
kits. On June 15, 2009, The Federal Court of Australia, Victoria
District Registry, issued a temporary injunction prohibiting
Smith & Nephew. Trial in Australia is set for 2010. UK
issued a temporary injunction and the German courts are considering
the same action as well. Smith & Nephew has vowed to appeal.
|
|
LDK Solar
GREEN
|
Yes
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$5.63
|
$76.75
$3.75
|
-81% &
+14%
|
|
If you made a profit of 97%,
take your profits early and often!
Read the articles, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
HIGHILIGHT IN Nov. mid-month
report?
News on 11.2.09 that Q-Cells
(QCE.F),
the German solar cell company, has
terminated an agreement
under which LDK supplied Q-Cells with solar wafers and was
threatening to draw back on its prepayment of $244.4 million
to LDK disheartened investors. Shares were off by over 18%
in early trading…
Lifted revenue outlook in a press
release dated October 27, 2009. For the third quarter of 2009,
LDK Solar expects to report between $270 million and $290
million in revenue with wafer shipments between 310 megawatts
("MW") to 330 MW and module shipments between 5 MW to 10 MW.
3Q official earnings report and conference call have not yet
been scheduled, but should occur in mid-November.
|
|
New Zealand Dollar currency ETF
by WisdomTree
|
No
|
BNZ
|
$25.17
$18.49
(12.1.08)
|
$25.07
|
$25.31
$16.67
|
Flat &
+35%
|
|
If you made a profit of 32%,
take your profits early and often!
Read the article, "Foreign
Investing:
From BRICs to Barbeys,"
in Vol. 5, issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand
is the new attraction on the world currency markets. New Zealand
has the highest interest rate in the industrialized world.
Currently, the Official Cash Rate is 2.5%. Reserve Bank Governor
Alan Bollard, at the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand,
wrote in a press release on June 11, 2009, "The recent
rise in the New Zealand dollar creates an unhelpful tension
with our projections. A stronger dollar at a time of weak
global growth risks delaying or even reversing the projected
increase in exports, putting the sustainability of recovery
at risk… We expect to keep the OCR at or below the current
level through until the latter part of 2010."
|
|
Satcon
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.93
|
$1.93
|
$2.57
$1.08
|
--
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. Certainly could benefit from the $3.4 billion
that President Obama awarded on October 27, 2009 to Smart
Grid and Clean Power projects. The company makes power converters
as well as grid monitoring systems, and was the company of
choice when Google built their solar plant.
Beware,
however, of the continuing losses and constricted capital
environment that has been so troublesome for clean energy
in 2009.
3Q 2009
earnings on Oct. 28, 2009: $11.7 million in revenue and a
net loss of $8.5 million.
"While
total sales were down year over year due to the global recession,
revenue for the third quarter increased 27% over the second
quarter of 2009," said Steve Rhoades, Satcon’s President
and Chief Executive Officer. "Our top-line growth highlights
the successful execution of our corporate strategy to develop
and launch the industry’s most advanced utility scale solar
PV inverter solutions. In addition, we began to see an increase
in bookings in North America, Europe and China, resulting
in current backlog of over $24 million, positioning us for
a solid fourth quarter."
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$30.26
|
$24.83
|
$107.00
$18.50
|
--
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side"
in Vol. 6, issue 3.
Sunpower
panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped
countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This
year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used
Sunpower panels.
3Q earnings
on 10.22.09: Record Q3 2009 revenue of $466 million.
$800 million
in cash and investments. 24 megawatt Montalto power plant
in Italy financed - expected completion Q4 2009. Signed a
14-megawatt supply agreement with Casino Group in France.
Commissioned 25-megawatt project for Florida Power & Light
and began construction of an additional 10-megawatt power
plant. Fab 3 construction in Malaysia on plan; production
scheduled for the second half of 2010.
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado USA
RISK: VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$.50 (10.20)
$2.66 (10.09)
|
$2.73
|
$7.04
$.38
|
-46% &
+546% &
+3%
|
|
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing
gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based
in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining
company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should
spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very
risky.
NOTE: The mantra this year continues
to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve made a
return of five times your investment, consider taking some
of your profits. Since gold is still in favor (in our view)
and U.S. Gold has not hit its full potential (in my view),
I’m keeping this company on the Hot News List. Profit-taking
is not the same as selling off all of the position.
Added to the S&P/TSX Global
Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09.
If you believe in this CEO and
company, you’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S.
Gold going forward. Gold should be a great hedge against inflation,
which is predicted to become an issue once the economy starts
to rebound (2010 and forward). Right now, the Feds are still
a little concerned about deflation, but inflation could begin
on the 12-24 month horizon.
This is an exploration company,
not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time.
Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol.
3, issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com
channel. You can review my
original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on
U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).
|
Recently
Deleted Companies 2008/2009:
Echelon
+20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson
+10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%,
Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08)
+40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek
(deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was
deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking
on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken
on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1
and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1 and
12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits
20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On
2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de
Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42%
on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%.
OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto
was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following
companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%),
GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC
(+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%)
and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%,
AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted
4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google
+9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%,
SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpac +42%
& -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19% gains.
PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with 50% losses.
WSDT with losses of -59%. Deleted 5.15.09: SQM with
gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09: EMKR with losses
of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1 with gains of
11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy with losses of -52-98%. Deleted
Smith and Nephew on 8.15.09 with gains of 17% and losses of 28%.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
None
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List.
Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
None
Recent
Deletions:
ENER1
(Symbol: HEV). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
Satcon
(Symbol: SATC). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
Sunpower Solar (Symbol: SPWRA). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
11.02.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Altair Nano-technology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.16
|
$1.03
|
$2.94
$0.60
|
-11%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
Vol. 6, issue 4.
Altair was not on the list of
battery makers receiving grants from the Obama Administration.
2Q earnings on August 7, 2009:
Sales were $62,000 minus $183,000 in returned product (ugghhh).
Net loss was $6.5 million.
Cash and cash equivalents: $28
million.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$25.30
|
$34.88
$12.40
|
-16%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
RISK: Medium
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$57.68
|
$108.79
$30.64
|
-12%
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars"
article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets
are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks
were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital.
|
|
Citigroup
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
C
|
$2.26
|
$3.85
|
$27.35
$.97
|
+70%
|
|
Financial markets are under duress.
Avoid most banks for now. Bailed out by the Feds November
2008. 1Q 2009 results will be released on 4.17.09 at 6:30
a.m. ET.
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
EBAY
|
$16.80
|
$22.25
|
$32.10
$9.91
|
+32%
|
|
Etail should perform better than
retail in the recession. But eBay is still having reduced
earnings. Waiting for a leveling off period.
|
|
Eldorado Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$10.56
|
$11.35
|
$11.39
$2.38
|
+7%
|
|
Read "Investing
in Gold"
from Vol. 6, issue 9.
|
|
First Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$121.61
|
$317.00
$85.28
|
-16%
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, iss 4.
First Solar joined S&P500 on
10.02.09. 3Q 2009 on 10.28.09: 3Q earnings revenue was down
from 2Q by -8.5%. Investors panicked and slammed shares.
First Solar uses cadmium telluride
instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy.
This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard
to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for
two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs
are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant
or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article
for more details.
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$51.36
|
$50.13
|
$80.23
$28.53
|
-2%
|
|
ADD TO HOT NEWS LIST IN Nov/Dec?
Read "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. FMC is the real winner of the stimulus
package because they supply lithium to the battery makers.
Waiting for a better buy-in point.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$393.69
|
$530.95
|
$602.45
$247.30
|
+35%
|
|
See Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes."
CEO Eric Schmidt just stepped down from the board of Apple,
Inc. Thomson Reuters said analysts expected this because Apple
and Google have begun to compete on smart phones and computer
operating systems. Note that Google’s 52-week low if $247.30
and be careful not to buy in too high.
|
|
Maxwell Labs
|
No
|
MXWL
|
$10.25
|
$18.78
|
$18.78
$4.00
|
+83%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Increased sales by 30% this 2nd
Quarter over last year, to $24.8 million from $19 million.
Net loss for Q209 was $5.3 million, compared with $4 million
the year prior. Cash on hand = $31.5 million. It is the continuing
losses and constricted capital environment that prevents us
from putting this company on the Hot List, even though sales
are jumping. We’ll look again at the 3Q 2009, which should
occur around November 11, 2009.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$18.08
|
$12.14
|
$73.56
$10.00
|
-33%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
Add to Hot News on November
mid-month update?
Acquisition of solar developer
SunEdison (announced on 10.22.09) should start putting meat
on MEMC’s bottom line in 2010. They now enter solar power
generation with the A-list company in that field.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$20.12
|
$27.70
|
$30.53
$14.87
|
+38%
|
|
Great blue chip. Buy at the best
possible price.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy
ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.78
|
$9.54
|
$23.96
$5.78
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RTP
|
$180.79
|
$180.35
|
$558.65
$59.20
|
flat
|
|
Gold, copper and other commodities
mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly
in Australia.
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$44.68
|
$48.58
$21.23
|
+24%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$36.36
|
$36.40
|
$59.41
$12.98
|
Flat
|
|
ADD BACK TO HOT LIST IN Nov/Dec?
Read the article, "Treasure
Hunting,"
in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium,"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. SQM announced on Sept. 30, 2009 that
prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be
reduced by approximately 20% from current levels for the renewal
of all its supply contracts. The purpose is to accelerate
demand recovery, create incentives for research of new lithium
uses, and contribute to the sustainable long-term development
of the lithium market.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$54.22
|
$91.50
$34.10
|
+16.5%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, Vol.
3, issue 4 and
Vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in Vol.
4, issue 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang
in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network.
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
|
No
|
STP
|
$16.06
|
$12.49
|
$49.60
$5.09
|
-22%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic
(PV) module manufacturer.
Add to Hot News mid-November?
Announced 2Q 2009 on August 20,
2009 before the markets opened. Revenues were $321 million,
up slightly from last quarter, but down 33.2% from the same
Q last year. Net profits were $10 million, off 81% from the
same time last year.
On 9.30.09, Suntech announced the
completion and grid connection of the first 10MW utility-scale
solar power project in China. Located in Shizuishan, Ningxia
Autonomous Region, the 10MW ground mount solar system is the
first phase of a 50MW solar plant that is targeted to be completed
by 2011 in conjunction with Suntech's strategic partner, China
Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (CECIC). In addition
to supplying high quality solar modules for the system, Suntech
designed, installed and managed the development of the solar
system and holds a minority share of the project.
|
|
Trina Solar Ltd.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$17.56
|
$33.93
|
$53.50
$5.61
|
+93%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
7.28.09: 20-F Annual report (of
foreign issuers):
For the second quarter 2009,
the Company estimates:
-- total shipments of approximately
63 MW to 65 MW of PV modules, compared to
the Company's previous guidance of 60 MW to 65 MW, an increase
of 29.1% to 33.2% from the
first quarter of 2009 and an increase of 32.4% to
36.6% from the second quarter of 2008.
-- total net revenues of approximately
$148 million to $152 million, an increase
of 12.0% to 15.1% from the first quarter of 2009 and a
decrease of 25.6% to 27.5% from
the second quarter of 2008.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$73.54
|
$115.66
|
$122.58
$45.16
|
+57%
|
|
Issued it’s half-year "interim"
results on May 6, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency
ETF
|
No
|
ICN
|
$24.28
|
$24.96
|
$25.71
$20.42
|
Flat
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, issue 2.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
American
Express (AXP)
Apple (APPL)
Capital One (COF)
Time Warner (TWX)
DELETIONS:
KB Home
(KBH)
Toll
Brothers (TOL)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 11.02.09
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Express
|
Yes
|
AXP
|
$16.98
$35.47
(9.15.09)
|
$35.47
|
$52.63
$14.72
|
+109%
&
flat
|
|
Read the
article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2. Earnings 7.23.09: Revenue in the 2nd
Q 2009 was off 18% and net income was down 48%, to $337 million,
from $660 million a year ago. $16 billion in cash on hand.
Longterm debt is $54 billion, with $28 billion in "other
liabilities." Customer deposits are $20 billion.
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$132.07
$190.47
(10.15.09)
|
$189.31
|
$192.24
$78.20
|
+43% &
-1%
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
3Q 2009
earnings on 7.22.09 were amazing: posted revenue of $8.34
billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.23 billion, or $1.35
per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $7.46
billion and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19
per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was
36.3 percent, up from 34.8 percent in the year-ago quarter.
International sales accounted for 44 percent of the quarter’s
revenue.
Dr. Eric
Schmidt, CEO, Google, resigned from Apple’s board on August
3, 2009. According to Steve Jobs, it’s because Google’s new
products pose a conflict of interest with Apple’s core biz.
No surprise here. It was expected.
On September
15, 2009, Bruce Sewell, formerly senior vice president and
general counsel of Intel Corporation, because SVP and general
counsel, replaced Daniel Cooperman, who had the job for the
last two years. Cooperman’s departure at this time seems to
be slightly more troublesome, given that he would have been
actively involved in the decision to keep the extent of Jobs’
illness from investors (whether he opposed or supported it).
Steve
Jobs today (go to GettyImages.com
to see him speaking on Sept. 9, 2009) looks like the grandfather
of his photo on the Apple website. Apple products are amazing
and Tim Cooks, Jobs’ commander in chief, seems to do a fantastic
job. But Steve is the face and soul of Apple – especially
in investors’ eyes.
Insider
selling is over $90 million since June 2009 (after Jobs announced
his liver transplant).
|
|
Applied Materials
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$12.76
$13.51 (9.15.09)
|
$12.17
|
$21.75
$7.17
|
-5% &
-10%
|
|
Leadership, product line and recessionary
actions were strong, but AMAT transitioned to solar just when
sales dropped off. Weathering the storm is imperative in the
meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es of this
company, which is hard to justify in a contracting environment.
With almost $2 billion in cash and marketable securities,
AMAT is in a position to regroup and recover in the future.
With any luck and with the purported US emphasis on clean
energy (which has yet to see real funding), this is a temporary
setback.
3Q loss (released on 8.11.09) was
$55 million on $1.13 billion of net sales. "In a difficult
environment, Applied improved its operating performance and
generated significant cash flow while making substantial investments
in new technologies for next-generation semiconductor chips,
flat panel displays and solar panels," said Mike Splinter,
chairman and CEO.
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$183.15
$427.07
(10.15.09)
|
$371.66
|
$397.70
$100.50
|
+103% &
-13%
|
|
Leading Chinese website for search
(similar to Google). 85 P/E is high for a revenue stream so
tied to advertising (during a global recession). (Advertising
revenue models tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s
P/E is only 30, by comparison, right now.)
7.27.09 1Q 2009 earnings: According
to the company, "Our operations are primarily based in
China, where we derive substantially all of our revenues.
Total revenues in 2008 were RMB3.2 billion (US$468.8 million),
an 83.3% increase over 2007. Operating profit in 2008 was
RMB1.1 billion (US$160.8 million), a 100.4% increase over
2007. Net income in 2008 was RMB1.0 billion (US$153.6 million),
a 66.6% increase over 2007."
The primary Risk Factor for Baidu
is: We derive revenues primarily from online marketing services,
which accounted for 98.9%, 99.8% and 99.9% of our total revenues
in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.A
|
$97,000
$102,105 (8.13.09)
|
$98,440
|
$147,000
$70,050
|
+1% &
-4%
|
|
Read "The
Oracle Turns 80,"
in Vol. 6, issue 8..
|
|
Capital
One Financial
|
No
|
COF
|
$22.29
$37.98
(9.15.09)
|
$37.14
|
$63.50
$7.80
|
+67% &
-2%
|
|
Credit
card companies are under distress. And now, the Obama Administration
is setting up a Bill of Rights for their customer. Tough times
for the credit industry continue, and this company is really
experiencing some of the toughest challenges of the field.
3Q 2009
earnings on 10.22.09: Managed revenue increased $482.0 million,
or 11.6 percent, relative to the second quarter.
· Provision
expense increased $296.4 million, due to an anticipated increase
in charge-offs as well as a modest allowance build of $31.7
million in the third quarter.
"We've
worked for years to position our company to be resilient,
and our third quarter results demonstrate that resiliency
in the midst of the most challenging economic cycle we've
seen in generations," said Richard D. Fairbank, Capital One's
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We are successfully
weathering the storm, but the storm is not over. Therefore,
we will continue to take the decisive actions necessary to
place our company in the best position to navigate the downturn
and drive shareholder value over the cycle."
Cash and
cash equivalents were $4.1 billion, down from $4.8 billion
(2Q 2009) and down from $7.5 billion at the end of 2008.
According
to the annual earnings report. "The adoption of SFAS
166 and SFAS 167 could have a significant impact on the Company’s
consolidated financial statements because the Company expects
it will be required to consolidate at least some of its special
purpose entities to which pools of loan receivables have been
transferred in transactions previously qualifying as sales.
Holding more of these assets on the Company’s balance sheet
may require it to take various actions, including raising
additional capital, in order to meet regulatory capital requirements.
Such capital may not be available on terms favorable to the
Company, if at all, and could have a negative impact on the
Company’s financial results. As of June 30, 2009, the
Company had approximately $44.5 billion of credit card receivables
held by QSPEs."
Read the
article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2.
|
|
Fortress Investment Group
|
No
|
FIG
|
$3.57
$5.37 (8.13.09)
|
$4.23
|
$19.50
$0.77
|
+18% &
-21%
|
|
Released 2Q 2009 results on August
5, 2009. Earnings are down -39% in 1Q 2009 from the same quarter
a year ago. GAAP net loss of $171 million, with principals
still getting paid $66 million in the quarter. Daniel H. Mudd,
currently member of the Fortress board of directors, will
become the firm's new CEO effective August 11, 2009. George
W. Wellde has been elected to Fortress' Board of Directors.
Read the articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Money
Grows on Wisdom Trees,"
from Vol. 4, issue 3. Reported earnings on 3.15.09. FY 2008
GAAP net loss of GAAP net loss of $322 million. Principals
in the company earned $222 million of that net loss.
2Q2009 earnings on 8.09: Net los
of -$171 million. Without paying the principals in the company,
the net income would have been $66 million. Man these guys
are getting paid a lot to lose a lot of dough!
On 9.22.09: dividend was canceled
by Board.
|
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$16.66
$20.25 (9.1.09)
|
$18.82
|
$25.29
$12.06
|
+13% &
-7%
|
|
Intel is a great blue chip. However,
business spending fell off a cliff in the recession. A P/E
of 42 is too high if the recession continues.
Green: Intel and Google launched
ClimateSaversComputing.org in 2007, with a goal of achieving
a 50% power consumption reduction by 2010. They have convinced
all kinds of partners to come on board, including competitors:
Advanced Micro Devices and Microsoft!
Reported 2Q results on 7.14.09:
had non-GAAP operating income of $1.4 billion, net income
of $1.0 billion and EPS of 18 cents. On a GAAP-basis, the
company reported an operating loss of $12 million, a net loss
of $398 million and a loss per share of 7 cents.
"Intel’s second-quarter results
reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with
our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and
a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half,"
said Paul Otellini, Intel president and CEO. "Intel's
strategy of investing in new technologies and innovative products,
combined with ongoing focus on operating efficiencies, continues
to yield benefits that are evident in our strengthening financial
performance."
|
|
Medtronic
|
No
|
MDT
|
$33.35
$37.09
(9.15.09)
|
$35.97
|
$56.97
$24.06
|
+8% &
-3%
|
|
Medtronic’s Infuse Bone Graft product
has been linked with a number of problems, including that
the doctor paid to report on the studies of the product falsified
positive reports. Other allegations include aggressive incentives
for doctors to use the device. While these are allegations
at this point, and not proven facts, biotechnology is a volatile
industry and the negative headlines that keep coming from
the Wall Street Journal are unlikely to make this company
the Belle of Wall Street.
On 5.19.09, the company issued
a press release, saying: "For fiscal year 2010, the company
expects revenue growth in the range of 5-8 percent on a constant
currency basis. The company also expects diluted earnings
per share (EPS) in the range of $3.10 to $3.20, which reflects
EPS growth in the range of 8-12 percent after adjusting for
approximately 6-7 cents of earnings dilution from the recent
acquisitions of CryoCath, Ablation Frontiers, Ventor, and
CoreValve."
"Earnings per share estimates
exclude the effect of any special or extraordinary charges
that may impact the company’s continuing operations and do
not include the impact of the new accounting method for recognizing
non-cash interest expense on convertible debt."
|
|
MGM Mirage
|
No
|
MGM
|
$26.79
|
$8.73
|
$100.50
$5.10
|
-67%
|
|
Get more information in Vol. 5,
issue 10 in the "(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
article.
The City Center project looms as
exceedingly problematic in today’s vast downturn of real estate
in the Las Vegas area. Anticipating very bad news on this
project in the near future. MGM has kept itself alive in the
harshest climate of the new millennium through selling assets,
selling more stock and taken on more debt. All of the debt
receives a junk rating from Fitch. On October 1, 2009, they
had to cancel a debt exchange offer due to low interest from
debt-holders.
Earnings on 8.3.09: Net revenue
decreased 17% to $1.5 billion. Net loss was $213 million.
3Q earnings will be announced on Nov. 5, 2009. On Oct. 22,
2009, the company announced that it expects to record a pre-tax
non-cash impairment charge of approximately $955 million related
to its investment in CityCenter; such charge will be reflected
in the Company's statement of operations for the third quarter.
|
|
Sears Holding
|
Yes
|
SHLD
|
$52.93
$78.37 (8.13.09)
|
$66.14
|
$108.75
$26.80
|
+25% &
-16%
|
|
Read the articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and the "Discount
Designer Stores"
article (Vol. 5, issue 6).
Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail chains in the U.S,
and formerly, was as American as baseball and apple pie. These
days, however, Sears is more of a hedge fund, which might
help to explain why you’ve been trying to get that appliance
repaired (under warranty) for months or been waiting for a
replacement for your coffee pot for so long that you’ve taken
up drinking tea. Almost all of the board directors at Sears
are in the investment business, not the retail business. In
fact, board director Emily Scott, a TV station founder, is
the only person on the board without significant investment
experience. No one on the Sears board has any experience at
all in retail.
You can read the shareholders
letter from Chairman Eddie Lampert on the SearsHoldings.com
website. 10 minutes into the letter, and I have to call this
a rant. Big red flag folks.
Still don’t have a CEO. Bruce Johnson
is interim CEO. New CFO started last October, right before
the preparation of the annual report began. The former CFO
Miles Reidy decided that he needed to spend more time with
his family than to put is name on the 2008 annual report.
Another big red flag.
Consensus, colossal insider
selling to the tune of over $80 million, including warrants
that were exercised by interim CEO Bruce Johnson.
3Q 2009 earnings on 8.20.09: Net
loss was $94 million. Total revenues decreased $1.2 billion
to $10.6 billion for the 13 weeks ended August 1, 2009, as
compared to total revenues of $11.8 billion for the 13 weeks
ended August 2, 2008. The decrease was primarily due to lower
comparable store sales and included a $126 million decline
due to the impact of foreign currency exchange rates.
Significant uses of our cash during
the first half of 2009 include $134 million for share repurchases,
contributions to our pension and post-retirement benefit plans
of $96 million, capital expenditures of $122 million and debt
issuance costs of $81 million. These amounts were partially
offset by borrowings. Total debt (consisting of short-term
borrowings, long-term debt and capital lease obligations)
at August 1, 2009 was $3.2 billion, as compared to $3.6 billion
at August 2, 2008.
|
|
Taubman Centers REIT
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$33.81 (9.15.09)
|
$29.66
|
$65.99
$12.43
|
+20% &
-12%
|
|
Read the article, "Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.
The income reported on July 23,
2009 was actually "cancellation income," not rent.
Read the details, not just the numbers.
"The environment for retail real
estate continues to be challenging," said Robert S. Taubman,
chairman, president and chief executive officer of Taubman
Centers. "Lease cancellation income from our tenants offset
a decline in rents. In addition, we are very focused on costs
throughout our organization, which contributed to our results
during the quarter."
3Q 2009 earnings on 10.26.09: Net
income (loss) allocable to common shareholders per diluted
share (EPS) was $(1.77) for the quarter ended September 30,
2009, versus $0.17 for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.
|
|
Time Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$29.79
|
$50.70
$17.81
|
+22%
|
|
Read
the article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
Scheduled
to report 3Q 2009 earnings on Nov. 4, 2009 before the market
opens.
2Q earnings
on 7.29.09: In the quarter, Revenues declined 9% from the
same period in 2008 to $6.8 billion. Lower revenues at the
Publishing, AOL and Filmed Entertainment segments more than
offset growth at the Networks segment. Net Income was $519
million, down from $792 million the year prior.
CEO Jeff
Bewkes said: "At the same time, we’re continuing the
reshaping of Time Warner that we started last year. We’re
on track to spin off AOL to our stockholders around the end
of the year. Separating AOL will benefit both companies –
enabling Time Warner to concentrate fully on our core content
businesses and improving AOL’s operational and strategic flexibility."
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$20.05
$29.21
(10.15.09)
|
$27.17
|
$44.69
$7.80
|
+36% &
-7%
|
|
See "Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression,"
in Vol. 4, issue 12.
Announces 3Q earnings on Oct 21, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. PT (before
market open).
3Q 2009 on 10.21.09: 3rd consecutive
quarter of record earnings -
Record Wells Fargo net income of $3.2 billion, up 98 percent
from last year; $9.5 billion year to date,
up 75 percent from last year.
Generated $20 billion during the
past six months toward the $13.7 billion Supervisory Capital
Assessment Program (SCAP)
buffer requirement; PTPP tracking above Company’s internal
SCAP estimates and 35 percent
above supervisory adverse scenario estimate -
Credit reserves built by $1.0 billion ($3.0 billion year to
date), reaching $24.5 billion, or 3.07
percent of total loans and 118 percent of nonaccrual loans
Earnings releases from Wells Fargo
are no longer mass distributed. They are available on the
company’s website at:
https://www.wellsfargo.com/invest_relations/earnings
13,000 team members are working
on helping customers stay in their homes and Wells reports
that their "delinquency and foreclosure rates continue
to be well below the industry average."
Wells Fargo Chairman takes early
retirement: Dick Kovacevich
will step down as chairman and a director at the end of 2009
and retire from the Company in early 2010.
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
|
$52.52
|
$176.14
$18.06
|
-45%
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5, issue 10.
2Q 2009 results announced on 7.30.2009.
Net revenues for the second quarter of 2009 were $723.3 million,
compared to $825.2 million in the second quarter of 2008.
Net income for the quarter was $25.5 million, or $0.21 per
diluted share, compared to net income of $272.0 million, or
$2.42 per diluted share in 2008. Adjusted net income in the
second quarter of 2009 was $11.5 million, or $0.09 per diluted
share (adjusted EPS)(2) compared to an adjusted net income
of $124.3 million, or $1.11 per diluted share in the second
quarter of 2008.
Total cash balances on June 30,
2009 were $1.1 billion. Total debt outstanding at the end
of the quarter was $4.1 billion, including approximately $2.6
billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $1.5 billion of Wynn Macau
debt.
|
Recently
Deleted in 2008/2009:
Fannie Mae was
deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price
value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both
puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on
6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was
deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo
was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted
on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on
8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First
Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with
75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was
deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction).
Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on
10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells
Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again
on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in
just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09. First Solar was deleted
on 8.13.09 with 33% gains. KB Home with 74% gains and Toll Brothers
with 51% gains on 10.01.09.
|
KB Home
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$15.19
|
$48.67
$6.90
|
-74%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue
5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the
fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest
rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.
REALTOR.org’s chief economist is not predicting housing to
recover in 2009. "Disproportionately high distressed home
sales will continue for the remainder of the year because
foreclosures and the release of foreclosed properties onto
the market will be rising for the remainder of the year."
Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of Realtors,
in a press release dated May 27, 2009.
McMansions are going the way of
Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient
world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying
new real estate these days at prices that KB can make a profit
on (considering their cost to carry the land, etc.)?
9.25.09 3Q 2009 earnings: Revenues
totaled $458.5 million, down 33% from $681.6 million in the
third quarter of 2008, due to lower housing revenues. Net
loss was $66.0 million. In the 2008 third quarter, the Company
reported a net loss of $144.7 million. Orders are increasing.
The Company’s backlog at August 31, 2009 totaled 3,722 homes,
representing potential future housing revenues of approximately
$734.1 million.
"In this challenging environment,
we significantly narrowed our third quarter net loss from
a year ago through the disciplined execution of our strategic
initiatives," said Mezger. "Restoring the profitability
of our homebuilding business remains our highest priority,
and we continue to take actions to achieve this objective."
|
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$18.68
|
$28.00
$15.49
|
-51%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue
5 in 2005, when we first reported on REITs as a burned out
sector.
McMansions are going the way of
Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient
world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying
new real estate these days at the prices that TOLL needs to
earn a profit? Real estate is expected to continue to decline
through 2009, at minimum. (Toll Brothers cashed out hundreds
of millions beginning as early as 2005.)
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IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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NataliePace.com Calendar:
Green
Conferences Galore. Learn Everything About the Latest Solar, Wind
and Geothermal Technologies and Powering the Grid Green.
 |
| Nobel Laureate,
best-selling author, former Vice President of the United States
Al Gore keynotes the 2009 Greenbuild Conference in Phoenix,
Arizona on November 11, 2009. |
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add
online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are
booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday,
November 3rd, 2009
The Federal Reserve Board governors meet for
two days, on the 3rd and 4th of November to determine the best monetary
policy for sustained, healthy growth.
Autism/ADD.
Call-in radio show
Wednesday, November 4th, 2009
9:00AM through 9:45AM PT
Autism and ADHD. 1 out of 100 kids is now diagnosed with autism.
More and more RXs for Ritalin and Adderal are being issued for wired
up ADD kids. Learn a natural, healthier approach to reducing the
symptoms with HealthWalk.com MD Dr. Dennis Maness, with host Natalie
Pace. Health is Wealth online/call-in radio show at http://www.BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
Women's
Leadership Exchange National Summit, NY
Thursday, November
5th, 2009
WLE
is the premier conference for you to connect with the right people
through guided facilitation throughout the day.
Unemployment
Results Announcement
Friday, November
6th, 2009
8:30AM
ET
Unemployment
tapped near double digits last month, at 9.8%. The largest job losses
were in manufacturing, retail, construction and government. New
Bureau of Labor Statistics out today.
Opportunity
Green Conference, LA, CA
Saturday, November
7th, 2009
Opportunity
Green 2009 is a 2-day event focused on greening biz in a profitable
way. Explore Product Innovation & Design for Sustainability,
How Fortune 500's are Implementing Sustainability for Growth, Raising
Investment Capital, Branding...
Sexy,
Smart Actresses Raising Money For Charity: Party and Silent Auction,
W. Hollywood, CA
Wednesday,
November 11th, 2009
7:00PM
through 9:00PM
Join
some of Hollywood's most desirable actresses in their calendar launch
party to benefit TreePeople.
Greenbuild
Conference, Phoenix, AZ
Wednesday, November
11th, 2009
Revolutionary
Green: Innovations for Global Sustainability, hosted by the Green
Building Council. This year, the keynote speaker is the Honorable
Al Gore. Experts on the green building movement and green collar
jobs.
Money!
Money! Money! Talk Radio Show
Wednesday, November 11th, 2009
9:00AM through 9:45AM PT
Join Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com. Obama and the Stimulus Package
are offering free money for new home buyers for college students
and even tax credits for health savings accounts! Learn how to access
all of this free money today!
Professional
BusinessWomen of California 2009 Sacramento Conference
Tuesday, November
17th, 2009
Join
the largest gathering of professional women in the Sacramento Area
for a day of learning, networking and inspiration. Local and national
experts will share the latest strategies for career advancement,
leadership, communication, work/life balance and more. Network with
state senators & CEOs!
Handel's
Tamerlano at the LA Opera
Saturday, November
21st, 2009
7:30PM
through 11:00PM
Plácido
Domingo stars - in the 126th role of his brilliant career! - as
Bajazet, a Turkish sultan.
Rossini's
The Barber of Seville at the LA Opera
Sunday, November
29th, 2009
2:00PM
through 3:00PM
An
effervescent comic opera with songs you'll sing along to.
Partnering
for Cures Meeting, NYC
Tuesday, December
1st, 2009
8:00AM
through 7:00PM
Expediting
cures requires collaboration. Partnering for Cures, a first-of-its-kind
meeting to be held December 1-3, 2009 in New York City, facilitates
these collaborations by bringing together philanthropy, medical
research foundations, and the biotechnology scientists.
Renee
Fleming at LA Opera
Saturday,
December 12th, 2009
Thrill
to the sheer beauty of opera diva Renée Fleming's voluptuous
soprano voice.
Clinton
Global Initiative University
Conference, Miami, FL
Friday, April
16-18, 2010
This 3-day event is one where students work
hand-in-hand on global issues, and even get their hands dirty on
a community service project. Of course, doing this alongside Prez.
Clinton and a few celebrity friends, like Brad Pitt, doesn't hurt!
You must apply with a proposal to be accepted. Act fast!

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VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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