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ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.7 Issue 1, January 1st, 2010
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"Beware that your Blue Chips aren't Bailouts, like AIG, GM, Citigroup
and Bank of America are. Money is power. If you want to change
the world, one of the easiest ways to do that is to invest your
money in companies you actually like instead of blindly investing
companies that are bankrupt and being bailed out with your pension,
annuity, 401(k), IRA, taxpayer dollars, et al."
Natalie Pace, author of You Vs. Wall Street.
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How
Cap & Trade Saved Ford From the Fate of GM and Chrysler.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
a Car
Stock Report Card.
Click to
access a side-by-side review of the numbers of Ford, Toyota and
Honda motor companies in the 2010
Car Report Card.
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| Ford Fusion:
2010 Motortrend Car of the Year |
2009 was a notable
year – the year that two of the three top U.S. automakers declared
bankruptcy. The untold story, however, was how Cap and Trade saved
Ford from the fate of General Motors and Chrysler.
By 2009, all
of the American auto manufacturers were in trouble. The main reason?
The companies had been posting losses for years. They had been around
for almost a century. They made promises to their employees that
they were having trouble keeping. And the debt they were taking
on to try and meet cash negative operations and their pension, labor
and other post employment benefit obligations was drowning the corporations.
General Motors had over $100 billion in debt when the company declared
bankruptcy.
Ford Motor Company
is in the same boat. According to the third quarter earnings report,
which was filed with the SEC on November 6, 2009, the company had
long-term debt of $25 billion, "other liabilities" of
$22 billion and "Financial Services Debt" of $105.8 billion.
That’s quite a hefty load for a company that lost $4 billion last
year to carry.
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| Ford Motor
Company is joining forces with two green energy companies, Xtreme
Power of Austin, Texas and Clairvoyant Energy of Santa, California,
to redevelop an abandoned Ford manufacturing plant into an energy
park. |
So, how did
Ford keep from going belly up, like Chrysler and General Motors?
Largely through vision, which translated into sales and (so far)
sustainability. Ford was the first American auto manufacturer to
promote fuel efficiency in a meaningful way, starting in 2002. The
company was one of only 13 founding members of the Chicago Climate
Exchange, making a commitment to voluntarily reduce green house
gas emissions and to undergo third-party verification of GHG emissions
data back in 2002. In May of 2008, Ford became the first automaker
to join The Climate Registry (TCR), a non-profit organization established
to measure and publicly report GHG emissions using a single reporting
standard across industry sectors.
How did going
green save Ford? Because Ford was the first U.S. automaker with
the vision to create fuel-efficient vehicles that Americans want
to drive. Regardless of how you weigh in on "Global Warming,"
oil prices are hot and volatile, which makes fuel efficiency the
cool thing to do. Thus, Ford has been rewarded with sales and awards,
in a world where GM’s Hummer went the way of the dinosaurs.
On November
17, 2009, The Ford Fusion was named Motor Trend Magazine’s
Car of the Year! Sales of the 2010 Fusion are at an all-time high.
The car is now among America’s Top 10 selling vehicles, and it is
the No. 1 selling domestic car. To win the coveted Car of the Year
award, the Ford Fusion outperformed the competition – including
the BMW 7 Series and Mercedes-Benz E-Class sedan – in six new categories:
design achievement, engineering excellence, intended function, efficiency,
safety and value.
Ford sales in
the 3rd quarter of 2009 were $27.8 billion, with net
income of $997 million, compared to a loss of $161 million a year
ago. General Motors lost $1.2 billion in the 3rd quarter of 2009.
Chrysler is now a privately held LLC and is not releasing earnings
reports to the public.
The head winds
in auto manufacturing remain torrential, especially with the amount
of debt, obligations, pensions and labor costs that still make it
hard for auto manufacturers to settle their colossal debt. Even
lean/green #1 auto manufacturer Toyota lost $4 billion in fiscal
year 2009. The industry is not in favor and the challenges are mighty.
But there is a clear leader in the group to keep your eye on – Ford
– once the economy is on more stable footing. Click to access a
side-by-side review of the numbers of Ford, Toyota and Honda motor
companies in the 2010
Car Report Card.
I added Ford
Motor Company to the Stocks to Watch List in my Hot News on Cool
Stocks article today.
Full Disclosure:
I do not own positions in any of the car manufacturers listed in
this article.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street
and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money
radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker.
We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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Crystal
Ball 2010.
by Natalie
Pace.
Conversation
with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Dr. Gary Becker.
Dr.
Becker has an incredible record for predicting when recessions will
end. Has he got it right this time?
Below is a conversation
I had in the University of Chicago office of Dr. Gary Becker, on
November 13, 2009. It was a crisp, cool Friday the 13th,
but, according to Dr. Becker, the bad luck may be behind us. Dr.
Becker believes we’ve finished the recession, that the Chinese are
more vulnerable than the U.S. in terms of Treasury Bills and that
one simple trick would do far more to promote robust recovery than
the Stimulus Package.
Natalie Pace:
How much faith do you have in this recovery?
Gary Becker:
I think we’ve finished the recession. The National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER.org)
hasn’t spoken yet, but I believe it was over in the 3rd
quarter.
I don’t see
anyone dancing in the streets yet…
The great worry
is, "Will the recovery be slow or fast?" I don’t think
it’s going to be as slow as the consensus opinion is. I look at
productivity at 9.5% increase in the 3rd quarter, and
about 7% in the second quarter. Productivity advance is really the
driver of the economy. Even though unemployment is expected to remain
elevated in the short run. In the longer run, higher productivity
goes hand in hand with greater employment. The recovery will not
be a V shape, rising rapidly, but I think it will be a decent recovery.
The Bailouts
started with Bush – with the handouts to AIG, GM and others -- not
Obama, so my next comments are not Obama Bashing. But this current
climate does not feel like capitalism. Unions received such a big
piece of Chrysler and bondholders were shafted. Corporations that
cannot survive in the free market were given a blank check, with
no rules or regulations on how the funds are to be used… How do
you feel about all of this? How concerned should we be?
I would not
have bailed out General Motors and Chrysler. I would have let them
go into bankruptcy. They were bailed out because of the unions.
The unions were a strong supporter of Obama. They got a better deal
than they would have gotten in the bankruptcy court.
Granted these
are challenging times requiring extraordinary actions, but what
other mistakes are being made by the U.S. Administration and Congress?
I would not
have a Pay Czar controlling pay. And I would try to get out as quickly
as possible. AIG and the automobile companies and the banks should
repay.
What we’re
left with now is consolidation into a few, mighty bailed out banks.
Meanwhile homeowners and small business owners are in trouble, and
don’t understand the logic of their home being returned to a bailed
out bank that lured them into the refinance in the first place.
Was this truly the only option and what kind of price will Americans
pay for this down the road?
A lot of the
help in the financial sector was important in preventing a more
serious recession. It wasn’t an event we were prepared for, so naturally
a lot of mistakes were made. That was not desirable. Some of it
may have been inevitable, but we should try to get rid of government
ownership of these corporations as quickly as possible.
Listening
to Bernanke, it sounds like he’s not about to allow any other big
corporations to fail… In a town hall meeting on July 26, 2009, Bernanke
said, "From 1929 to 1931, it was a normal recession. Then,
in 1931, a huge bank in the middle of Central Europe collapsed and
that created a global financial crisis which then made the recession
into the Great Depression."
I’d be careful
about doing that. If you look at the Great Depression, it’s true
that things got worse after the first two years. But things were
worse during the first two years than this recession has
been, and then they got terrible. I think it would be a mistake
to say that no big banks can fail. We’re getting into a position
where we can allow even some larger banks to fail. I think banks
are generally in better shape than they were before, although we’re
going to have some failures. I don’t know which of the big banks
are the most vulnerable. I’m not following it that closely. But
I don’t think we want to give the message that we’re not going to
let big banks fail. We give false messages to the market.
That lousy
companies can run their business into the ground and we’ll still
bail them out?
That’s not a
good message to give… You’re right about that. It’s not Capitalism.
With regard
to the positive spikes in productivity, your Blog partner Richard
Posner argues that corporations are fudging the productivity with
lower quality goods and services, slower payment of bills, etc.
So, he makes a distinction between technological, innovation-based
productivity and what we’re seeing today.
I think he’s
wrong on that because if you look at European productivity, that
has gone down. They have the same incentive to fudge the numbers
– to pay bills slowly and put out lower quality goods and services,
but European productivity has been negative in the last two quarters.
There is something real going on here. Usually in recessions, productivity
falls, as is happening in Europe.
Elizabeth
Warren, the Chairman of the TARP Oversight Committee, has said that
earnings are unreliable these days. Pension and OPEB contributions
were given a vacation last year by Bush, and who knows if that mandate
will be lifted again for 2010. Banks have literally billions in
unreported losses from real estate that they don’t have to mark
to market…
I really don’t
know how accurate the earnings reports are. I will only say the
following: Companies are doing a lot better than they were a year
ago. It’s certainly a true direction. There’s no doubt that Goldman
Sachs made a lot of money. There’s also no doubt that Wal-Mart is
doing quite well. Whether the profit numbers are accurately reflecting
how much better, I don’t follow the numbers well enough to know.
But I don’t think it’s fake to say that we’re in a recovery.
The last
GDP report was the first positive report in two years, but half
of the growth was fueled by the Cash For Clunkers program – essentially
government stimulus spending.
Maybe it would
have been half the growth without the Cash For Clunkers Program,
but still that’s a positive number.
In the past
GDP growth has relied upon capital and consumer spending, but that
doesn’t look like it’s coming back soon in this "Jobless Recovery."
What will
drive the economy out of the recession?
I’d have the
government send out a stimulus package, cut taxes on corporate investments
and things of that type. That’s an important driver of the economy.
Consumers are spending more now than they were a year ago, but they’re
still cautious and trying to rebuild their portfolio. I’m also looking
forward to the world market. Asia is improving at a rapid rate.
Brazil is improving at a rapid rate. Germany and France are doing
pretty well. That will help improve the U.S. economy.
The Federal
Reserve Board has indicated that they’ll start raising the Fed Funds
Rate as soon as they can, but that, economic conditions "are
likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds
rate for an extended period."
The Fed is going
to be pressured from Washington not to tighten too much, so the
economy goes forward. On the other hand, they want to tighten in
order to prevent a more rapid rate of inflation. The Washington
political party – whichever one – will be in favor of more inflation
and not tightening, while the Feds should be thinking of less inflation
and more tightening. How they work that out will determine whether
or not inflation becomes a major problem down the road or not. I
expect Washington to win out at least part of that battle.
So, how far
down the road are we looking at?
It shouldn’t
occur for a couple of more years. The immediate problem is to get
a faster recovery.
Dr.
Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department
of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business,
The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in
1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George
W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.
To keep track
of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his web
site and blog.
To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening
the U.S. economy, check out the 2009 Milken Global Economic Conference
web page. Dr. Gary Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference
every year since it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes
in April 2009.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide
to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
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Predictions
for 2010: Will the U.S. Economy Be In the Money or In the Toilet?
by Staff.
VIPs,
CEOs and Economists Make Their Predictions.
Will Americans
be rolling in the dough, dancing in the streets, plugging away,
moving parents and college students under one roof to make ends
meet or immigrating to another land of opportunity? Below find the
predictions of leading economists, CEOs and VIPs.
Happy
Days are Here Again!
1.
Warren
Buffett. Buffett has made a $34 billion bet on the economy
doing well, in his purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation.
In a Berkshire Hathaway press release dated November 3, 2009, regarding
his acquisition, Buffett wrote, "America must grow and prosper
for railroads to do well. Berkshire’s $34 billion investment in
BNSF is a huge bet on that company, CEO Matt Rose and his team,
and the railroad industry. Most important of all, however, it’s
an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States. I love
these bets."
But Buffett
is pretty much the Lone Ranger in this category of unbridled optimism…
Recovery
– Better Than Expected
1.
Dr.
Gary Becker: "I think we’ve finished the recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.org)
hasn’t spoken yet, but I believe it was over in the 3rd
quarter… The great worry is, "Will the recovery be slow or
fast?" I don’t think it’s going to be as slow as the consensus
opinion is… The recovery will not be a V shape, rising rapidly,
but I think it will be a decent recovery."
Dr.
Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department
of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business,
The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in
1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George
W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.
2. Goldman
Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein speaking on CNNMoney on October
16, 2009: "I believe we have had the turn. It’s hard to be
sure. You just don’t know about these things. If I had to guess,
I think we’ve already started to go up, but it doesn’t mean that
people will feel good about it. Sentiment will lag… because the
recovery is going to be uneven. Certain industries have to shrink.
Other industries have to go and the people caught in the middle
have to be retrained and it might be different people who get those
jobs."
3. Liz
Ann Sonders, SVP & Chief Investment Strategist, Charles
Schwab & Co., Inc., wrote in an email to me, “I think the consensus
is underestimating the "coiled spring" aspect of this economic recovery,
and although it's off to a slow start, I would expect several quarters
of better-than-expected GDP. The drivers are likely to be strong
exports, inventory replenishment and business capital spending.
Public sector debt will remain the primary pessimistic overhang
in what should otherwise be a more robust recovery than most expect.”
The next
group is concerned about risk factors, even though they believe
that technically the U.S. economy has started to recover.
Fragile
Recovery – More Work to Be Done
1. Federal
Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke,
speaking before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs,
U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C. on December 3, 2009 testified, "Over
the past two years, our nation, indeed the world, has endured the
most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, a crisis
which in turn triggered a sharp contraction in global economic activity.
Today, most indicators suggest that financial markets are stabilizing
and that the economy is emerging from the recession. Yet our task
is far from complete. Far too many Americans are without jobs, and
unemployment could remain high for some time even if, as we anticipate,
moderate economic growth continues."
2. Secretary
of the Treasury Timothy F. Geithner. In written Testimony
before the Congressional Oversight Panel on December 10, 2009: "The
financial and economic recovery still faces significant headwinds.
Unemployment remains very high, along with foreclosure and delinquency
rates, and housing markets are still overwhelmingly dependent on
government support… Commercial real estate losses weigh heavily
on many small banks… These conditions place enormous pressure on
American families, homeowners, and small businesses… In conclusion,
I can report significant improvements in our financial markets and
economy, as well as the positive financial results of our TARP programs.
However, our job is far from finished. History suggests that
exiting too soon from policies designed to contain a financial crisis
can significantly prolong an economic downturn."
3.
FDIC
Chairman Sheila Bair at the Institute of International Bankers
Conference; New York, NY on November 10,
2009: "This year alone, the FDIC has resolved 120
institutions that held total deposits of $112 billion, almost all
of which will turn out to be fully insured… We've had too many years
of unfettered risk-taking, and too many years of government subsidized
risk. It's time we changed the rules of the game. It's time we closed
the book on the doctrine of too big to fail. Only by instituting
a credible resolution process and removing the existing incentives
for size and complexity can we limit systemic risk, and the long-term
competitive advantages and public subsidy it confers on the largest
institutions."
4. Dr.
Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist
of the World Bank, in an interview with China Publishing Today,
published on November 30, 2009, is quoted as saying, "There
are signs of global economic recovery, but the foundation is still
shaky. Recovery mainly came from two sides: the first is financial
stimulus by governments, and the second is re-stocking by the corporate
sector after a de-stocking. However, private consumption and private
investment have yet to fully recover, so we say the recovery is
not solid. I believe we should continue to implement proactive fiscal
policies and increase private investment to ensure a sustainable
recovery."
5.
Ethan
Harris,
Chief Economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, speaking on PBS
on December 14, 2009: "We shouldn't be surprised at the recovery
starting out slow. By the end of 2010, I think we'll be in better
shape… There are two concerns... If oil were to go back and revisit
those $150 price levels, that would be quite negative for the economy.
The other would be that government backs off from this super stimulus.
We need a lot of help in the next year. We can't really have growth
without strong stimulus. So we need to continue monetary medicine
and a fiscal therapy."
There are
those who have a more pessimistic view of the economy, and believe
that real recovery happens after 2010…
The
Great "Recession" and Stagnation Continues…
1. Judge
Richard Posner in his Becker-Posner blog entry, August 2009: "A
recession or depression ends, in my view, when output rejoins the
GDP trend line, that is, when it reaches the level it would have
reached had the economy grown at its average rate of growth, rather
than being depressed. At the moment, as I point out in my Atlantic
blog entry of August 1, output is 7.2 percent below the trend line,
which suggests that the economy will remain depressed for at least
the next two years."
Judge
Richard A. Posner
was appointed in 1981 as a judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for
the Seventh Circuit, where he currently presides. He was the chief
judge of the court from 1993 to 2000.
2. Federal
Open Market Committee
issued a Press Statement on December 16, 2009 writing, "Although
economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee
anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and
institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will
contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return
to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability."
The FOMC believes that "economic conditions, including low
rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable
inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low
levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
If you were
to divide these camps into Wall Street and Main Street, you’d have
almost consensus opinion. Wall Street, due to federal stimulus and
the recovery of other countries in the world, should grow and that
growth might even be better than expected, especially if oil doesn’t
spike, taxes are cut and federal stimulus remains robust. If so,
the stock market in 2010, contrary to what usually happens in the
years after a presidential election, may post greater gains than
2009. Main Street, on the other hand, will lag the recovery, with
higher unemployment and the need for retraining labor to compete
in ever-increasingly complicated, high-performance, high-brain power
jobs. Even mechanics are computer operators these days!
There are a
lot of “ifs” in that paragraph, which is why the exerts have plenty
of caveats in their predictions. Therefore, caution is still the
rule of the day. I would add that investors should be alerted to
the potential change and re-reinforcement of accounting rules, which
were suspended in 2008 and 2009. Once corporations have to start
marking their assets to market, paying into the pension and other
post employment benefits funds and accounting for bad debt and investments,
corporate earnings could look ugly again. To avoid panicking after
the fact, have a good plan that works in bull and bear markets –
just in case.
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Should I Give My Home
Back to the Bank?
Readers
Ask Natalie Pace for Help.
Dear
Natalie:
My
husband was just given an early retirement. We’re in a big house
and we’re going to downsize to reduce costs. My question is this.
If, after I buy my new house, I have trouble selling the big, old
house, should I just let it foreclose?
Signed:
Feel Like Shafting the Bailed Out Bank
Dear Shaft Happy:
Bankruptcy,
foreclosure and skipping out on obligations are all last resorts
to be employed only when there are no other options, and then, only
with sound legal counsel. There are many other far more positive
potential outcomes where everyone wins, and I encourage you
to focus your energy on making those a reality. Instead of thinking
of early retirement as the beginning of the end of everything, why
not think of it as the beginning of a whole new life and lifestyle?
For instance,
with interest rates at a 40-year low, if you have a fixed rate on
your old place, you might be in a position to rent it to cover your
costs. Since real estate returns over 6% return on investment annually,
even if property values continue to decrease next year, chances
are reasonably good that you make a reasonable profit in 5-10 years,
especially if the cost to carry is paying for itself. Additionally,
if you’re close to paying off the loan altogether, and you can have
a renter cover your costs plus a little profit, that’s an excellent
strategy that increases your net asset value significantly, rather
than ruining your credit. (Excellent credit will be VERY valuable
when interest rates start to rise again.)

It’s understandable
that you are thinking worst-case scenario, since the thought of
early retirement is so stressful. But many people go on to utilize
all that free time to become excellent ROI earners (Return on Investment)
– earning far more than they ever made punching a clock. (Many professionals
ignore their investments and, thus, are vulnerable to the kind of
shocks that happened in real estate and stocks in 2008.)
As just one
example, look at the chart below. Even with the horrific downturn
in 2008, small cap stocks still earned over 10% every year over
the last forty years. Investing is the best pathway to the life
of your dreams – far more powerful than an annual salary. If you
start investing 10 percent when you are eighteen, you’d be a millionaire
before you were fifty—thanks to the power of compounding and returns—even
if you are only making $14 an hour and never got a raise. If you
were just saving – or earning – that money, you never achieve financial
freedom.
Investing
Vs. Savings Chart

Do not buy into
the media frenzy of the bailed out economy and Wall Street corruption.
There are many people who have earned 10% annualized gains over
the last decade utilizing easy as pie chart strategies and annual
rebalancing. And the majority of companies on Wall Street are making
products, goods and services that make our world a better place.
It’s your job now to empower yourself with financial wisdom, and
it begins with focusing on earning Return On Investment on your
assets – not giving them back to the bank. As you gain financial
wisdom, you will learn how to:
* Throw away
less money on medical insurance (putting more in your nest egg)
* Earn
a higher return on your stocks, while always keeping the right amount
safe
* Become
the architect of your dream vision
* Hire
the perfect contractor (Certified Financial Planner) to implement
your goals
It’s You
Vs. Wall Street. Win!
If you are
a distressed homeowner, you need more information on short sales,
loan modifications and foreclosure before you act. These are not
sure shot Get out of Debt Free Cards. Listen back to my BlogTalkRadio.com
show with real estate consultant, Steve Dietrich. Unfortunately,
there are many traps in the process that can rob you of your home,
your income and/or credit rating for many years to come. Get the
information and resources you need before you make any move.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide
to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
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Smart
Bond Investing.
Interest
Rate Risk. By FINRA.org.
Remember the
cardinal rule of bonds: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise,
and when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Interest
rate risk is the risk that changes in interest rates
in the U.S. or the world may reduce (or increase) the market value
of a bond you hold. Interest rate risk—also referred to as market
risk—increases the longer you hold a bond.
Let's
look at the risks inherent in rising interest rates.
If
you bought a 10-year, $1,000 bond today at a coupon rate of 4 percent,
and interest rates rise to 6 percent, two things can happen.
Say you need
to sell your 4 percent bond prior to maturity. In doing so, you
must compete with newer bonds carrying higher coupon rates. These
higher coupon rate bonds decrease the appetite for older bonds that
pay lower interest. This decreased demand depresses the price of
older bonds in the secondary market, which would translate into
you receiving a lower price for your bond if you need to sell it.
In fact, you may have to sell your bond for less than you paid for
it. For this reason, interest rate risk is also referred to as market
risk.
Rising interest
rates also make new bonds more attractive (because they earn a higher
coupon rate). This results in what's known as opportunity
risk—the risk that a better opportunity will come around
that you may be unable to act upon. The longer the term of your
bond, the greater the chance that a more attractive investment opportunity
will become available, or that any number of other factors may occur
that negatively impact your investment. This also is referred to
as holding period risk—the risk that not only a better opportunity
might be missed, but that something may happen during the time you
hold a bond to negatively affect your investment.
Bond fund managers
face the same risks as individual bondholders. When interest rates
rise—especially when they go up sharply in a short period of time—the
value of the fund's existing bonds drops, which can put a drag on
overall fund performance.
For more important
information on Smart
Bond Investing, go to the FINRA.ORG website.
About
FINRA:
The
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest
independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in
the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage
firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately 643,000 registered
securities representatives.
FINRA believes
investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the
media and public forums, we help investors build their financial
knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand
the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.
Sign up to receive
FINRA content and Investor Alerts at FINRA.ORG.
|
|
Want to Be a Bestselling
Author?
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero
to Zillionaire and The
Wealthy Spirit.
"Chellie,
you’re a successful published author – can I take you to lunch and
pick your brain about the book business and how to get my book published?"
I can’t tell
you how many requests like that I have had since The Wealthy
Spirit and Zero to Zillionaire were released in 2002
and 2006, respectively. After awhile, I was getting too fat from
all that lunching out, and wrote it all up in a book publishing
report (available free to all Dolphin Club members). Here are some
interesting book industry statistics from that report:
1. 2% of the
200,000 books published each year become bestsellers.
2. 84% of the bestsellers are published by the 5 largest New York
publishers.
3. 2 out of 10 books published make a profit for the publisher.
4. In 2004, 950,000 titles out of the 1.2 million tracked by Nielsen
Bookscan sold fewer than 99 copies. Another 200,000 sold fewer than
1,000 copies.
5. Only 25,000 books sold more than 5,000 copies.
6. The average book in America sells about 500 copies.
7. Only 10 books sold more than a million copies in 2004.
8. Fewer than 500 books sold more than 100,000 copies in 2004.
9. The
magic number for a book to be considered successful is 10,000. When
The Wealthy Spirit reached 12,000 books sold, my editor called
me and said, "We’re ready for your next book!" And so
I got the contract to write Zero to Zillionaire. The Wealthy
Spirit has now sold nearly 20,000 copies and Zero to Zillionaire
is approaching the magic number of 10,000 copies sold.
The good news
is you don’t have to have a blockbuster like The Da Vinci Code
in order to be successful with your books. You only have to sell
5,000 to be in the top 2% of bestselling books. That looks a lot
more doable than selling a million, doesn’t it?
Royalties on
books usually start at 10% - and unless you have a major publisher,
they are now based on wholesale price and not retail, and the reserve
against returns is 15-25%. So the odds on making your fortune from
a book alone are slim.
Non-fiction
books are like business cards. They are my best marketing pieces,
help me spread the word about my seminars and professional speaking,
and give me oodles of credibility so I can charge good fees for
my work. Many times people have signed up for my workshops just
because they were fans of my books. They are one of my "multiple
streams of income" and I have ideas for more books to come!
Non-fiction
book sales are all about PLATFORM. That means, how many people know
who you are and will buy your book? That's why you see so many celebrity
books - they have huge platforms and so will sell many more books
than an unknown author. That is why Jessica Seinfeld got a book
deal for her cookbook when the unknown author who pitched basically
the same book six months prior to her didn't get a deal.
Books are widgets
and publishers are manufacturers and their number one goal is to
sell a lot of widgets. Never forget that! Here's some insider
info: I was a speaker at a conference in Mexico in October, along
with Marci Shimoff, author of 6 Chicken Soup for the Soul
books. She is a part of a mastermind group of best-selling speaker-authors
that do mailings for each other – you’ve seen the "Be a Bestseller
on Amazon" promotions will all the free goodies from other
self-help authors, yes? Marci’s announcement about her new book
Happy for No Reason, which is a fabulous book, went out to
5 million people! That's what I mean by platform, and why she got
a big deal with a major publisher.
But look, she
started small, too. She pitched Chicken Soup for the Woman's
Soul to Jack Canfield when there wasn't any idea for a series
of "Chicken Soup" books – there was only the one book.
But she saw a sequel in meditation and called Jack and pitched her
idea. Then she built her reputation by speaking and writing more
of those titles and I'm guessing not much money in the beginning.
Now she commands big speaking fees and gets big advances for her
books.
The book business
is like every business. People who have made it usually built their
brand and their business slowly over time and came into the big
money later, after years of hard work. Read the biographies of any
famous person and you'll find that same story over and over. Faith
Hill became famous with her fourth album. Bon Jovi sold his 50th
song demo, and the band didn't make any money until their 3rd album.
That's why you
have to love your work – your goals have to be so juicy that it’s
fun just to work towards them! Because that's all that will sustain
you through the failures along the road to success. Look at everything
as fun and an adventure along the way and you'll be happy and successful
every day of your life.
And that’s my
secret of happiness.
So: Think
you’re ready to make the leap to bestselling book author? Chellie
Campbell will be the guest on Natalie Pace’s BlogTalkRadio
show on Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:00 a.m. PT. Go to BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
to become a friend and to get the call-in information. You will
be able to chat live with Chellie on the air and ask any question
you desire!
Chellie
Campbell:
Professional
Speaker and Author of The Wealthy Spirit and Zero
to Zillionaire has been teaching Financial Stress Reduction®
Workshops since 1990. The Wealthy Spirit was a book-of-the-week
on the Doctor Laura Schlesinger radio show and a GlobalNet book-of-the-month
selection. She has been quoted in Good Housekeeping, Lifetime,
Woman's World, and Essence, and more than 30 popular
books.
If you are stuck
in a rut in your business or life and/or having too much "month
at the end of your money," Chellie’s Financial Stress Reduction®
workshop might be just what you need to get things on the right
track. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine and workshop at www.chellie.com.
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|
Vision.
by
Gary Kobat.
 |
| Gary Kobat
Friend and Client Geoffrey Erickson wins the Ogden Utah Marathon. |
Creating
vision is one of the most vitally active processes in which a person
can engage. Like a trail guide, vision leads us on a path.
Similar
to a corporate manifesto, a personal vision is one of the most essential
tools for manifesting what we want. The purpose of having vision
is to get us into conscious creating, changing our thoughts, and
thereby changing our lives.
When
we create vision, our lives make dramatic shifts. Vision does not
teach, it points, allowing us to live life with a particular direction,
concentration of mind, a calmness and simplicity that attracts the
experience of peace, and through that experience, happiness.
With
vision, decisions become easier, guiding us to what is true: to
the way of our life, cutting away all that is false. Clear vision
gives us a reason for being, a pathway of purpose that can evaluate,
energize, initiate, and refine all activities, creating responsibility,
while building self-esteem.
The
progress we make on our path, like an athlete, will be quick or
slow, according to our awareness. When we embrace our awareness,
we live our lives to their fullest extent: to be happy.
Vision
is really about happiness. The inevitable result: conscious alignment
with happiness; the kind of happiness that endures, sees us through
every difficulty, every loss, every hardship, and brightens even
our best days.
When
living in alignment with our loves, whether in business, athletics,
or life, our vision will find us. In fact, it's on its way, identifying
more of life's calling. But we must be patient, be willing to "not
know" for a short time, maintaining an open and mindful presence.
Then one day we will hear a voice saying, "This is the path."
With
vision, the possibilities are infinite.
About
Gary Kobat:
Gary
is the tough-love Coach, no-nonsense Trainer, and World-Class
Athlete whose energy for life has inspired, educated, and empowered
lasting personal and professional change for thousands. He
believes that we can re-invent ourselves by living life
without-limits; understanding that the universe is
full of infinite possibilities; that everything we need is inside:
right here & right now; and by never, ever, ever giving-up.
Gary's
client list includes the who's who in film, business, and sport.
For the past decade he has quietly mentored the spirituality, health,
and longevity of Jim Carrey, Will Ferrell, Mariska Hargitay,
and countless others.
You
can sign up for a free copy of Gary’s e-book at GaryKobat.com.
Follow him on Facebook
and Twitter
for daily tweets of inspiration.
|
|
Shopping
for a Promotion – Literally.
by Natalie
Pace, author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of The
Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money on BlogTalkRadio.com.
 |
| Natalie
Pace. Photo by Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. © 2008.
|
Every job, promotion
and raise I ever got hinged on one critical heel—dressing the part.
Have you ever heard of anyone in a t-shirt and thongs (the shoes,
not the underwear) getting an executive level position (unless they
owned the company)? How would you feel if your attorney showed up
to court in a Hawaiian shirt or your gardener came to work in a
tuxedo?
Every job has
its standard dress code, and dressing for success is a subtle, but
important statement that you embody the career you’re aiming for.
And that message has to start BEFORE you ask for the job, not after.
Unfortunately, you can’t afford to rationalize that you’ll
buy the new suit AFTER you get the job and have the extra money
to afford it. If you don’t invest in the duds first, your big shot
will be a blank.
The reason that
I say to start walking the talk now, is that it’s not just in the
boss’ office where that suit can be an advantage. Great-looking
clothes (and every fashionista knows that fabric DOES matter) can
provide a conversation starter for strangers. I met one of my business
advisors at a conference because he and I were standing in the valet
queue, waiting for our respective cars, wearing similar his and
her pin-stripe suits, crafted by the same designer. (Yes, I bought
mine on sale, which is something anyone can do easily in 2009.)
That suit sparked a business relationship and Rolodex sharing that
launched my company. That’s a million dollar return on a thousand
dollar investment. (Silk blouses aren’t cheap, ya’all.)
Still afraid
to pony up the dough before you win the job? Worried about how you’ll
pay off the credit card bill? Unfortunately, it’s a Catch 22 situation.
If you don’t make the investment, you’re unlikely to get the job.
Which strategy is more likely to succeed? Walking into your boss’
office wearing what you always wear or having the boss walk by your
desk and see you looking sharp and brand spanking new, like s/he’d
better promote you before one of her clients snatches you up?
Last week, I
came across an executive assistant wearing a tailored suit. The
first thing I thought was, "Wow! If her work ethic, her education
and her intelligence warrant a raise and promotion, I wouldn’t be
surprised to see her in her own office next time I visit."
(And if her education and industry acumen don’t measure up, then
her next shopping spree should be for college classes and/or professional
development!) I put her name on my short list of people I would
approach when/if my company was hiring.
Before you trip
on over to the designer outlet mall, measure up your education.
If you’ve been hitting your head on the glass ceiling for a while,
make sure that you’ve got the degree you need for the job. Did you
know that women with a masters or PhD. earn five times (or more)
those with only a high school diploma? Education is the single-most
highly correlated factor with income. Odds are against you getting
a great job without a degree, no matter what you’re wearing.
So take a moment
to envision that dream-come-true job and you dancing in those ‘to-die-for’
shoes. Be willing to invest in your education and an appropriate
wardrobe, to jump a rung or two up the ladder!
And if you’re
really happy where you are, don’t sweat it. Climbing the corporate
ladder has no bearing on what kind of person you are anyway. In
his book, Giving, President Clinton describes a laundress
who saved up a quarter of a million dollars for charity. What a
rich life she led! Just be the best ever you, and know that
woman can live the life of her dreams no matter what she’s wearing
(even naked!).
Finally, get
the most bang for your buck. January can be a great time for after
Christmas sales! Splurging (within reason) can be the best thing
you do for your career, and paying a little more for a great fabric
and a great cut can pay off for years because classic cuts don’t
go out of fashion, like the latest trend does. Polyesters, off-the-rack
suits and outrageous fashion statements may cost less, but they
also look cheaper and wear out in just one season. Whereas a great
suit can become this year’s hip, new look with a new hemline, blouse
and some accessories!
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide
to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
|
|
Time
to Thrive.
by
Natalie Pace.
How
to Launch Out of the Rut of Basic Needs and Survival and into the
Life of Your Dreams.
"The
more you praise and celebrate your life, the more there is in life
to celebrate."—Oprah Winfrey
 |
| Natalie
Pace. Photo by: Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. © 2008.
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbell. |
Each year, it’s
a good idea to revision your life. This is different than making
New Year’s Resolutions (that you rarely keep). This is a complete
redraft of the blueprint you’re operating from. Are you having enough
fun? (This means free endorphins, which promote health, and health
is wealth!) Are you investing right? Giving to charity? Investing
in education (which is the highest correlating factor with income)?
Or are you trying to squeeze all of your living and fun into the
dregs of your budget each month? Are you drowning in basic needs
and survival? Below is an exercise to push the reset button on the
lifestyle you’ve settled for and launch the life of your dreams.
The
Billionaire Game
How
would you live if you had all of the money in the world?
In order to
really shake out the old and invite in the new way of thinking about
life, I want you to envision the life you would enjoy if you were
a millionaire (perhaps you are), and then if you were a multimillionaire,
and then as a billionaire. You’ll be following a carefully laid
out Thrive Budget, but you will be spending more and more money
in each category, until you are spending just like a billionaire.
It’s just a
game, but watch what issues come up for you.
Which specific
organizations are your charitable donations going to go? Which companies
are you buying in your stock portfolio? What kind of housing are
you building and moving into—a green, solar energy-efficient house?
Will you buy a bike to save on gasoline costs? Will you manage your
own stocks and bonds or hire a money manager? Where will you go
on vacation this year? Will you take your family and friends with
you?
The first column
is for your initial year, starting now, but the second column is
what you’d be spending if you earned $1.2 million annually (not
your spouse—this is your money). For some of you, this is
Fantasyland—something to aspire to—so knock down your walls and
fences and go for it. This is time for outrageous, vivid, detailed,
"dream come true" planning. It is the same you—but with
a much bigger monthly salary!
The other columns
are designed to get you thinking wayyyyy beyond your current income
and lifestyle. Imagine you’re earning a take-home salary of $100
million per month. How will you invest that? Where will you donate
ten million dollars this month? What kind of immediate pleasure
can you have with that kind of money? What kind of "long-term
fun" splurge will you buy with $120 million (12 months times
$10 million per month)?
When you get
to the basic needs in the final billionaire category, remember that
you’re spending 10 percent on charity and 10 percent on education,
both of which could be helping you preserve your billionaire status,
since your foundations should provide tax benefits.
Play
the Billionaire Game
The
Thrive Budget (aka Double Your Fun Budget)
The
basic breakdown of what I call a "Double Your Fun" budget
is 50 percent to Thrive and 50 percent to Survive:
1. 10 percent
to investing
2. 10
percent to charity
3. 10
percent to education
4. 20
percent spent on fun. (Half on immediate fun, like movies, fashion
and dinners out, the other half on something you’ll have to save
up for, like vacations, Jacuzzis, boats, etc.)
5. 50
percent for all your basic needs (including taxes, housing, food,
clothing, etc.)

What came up
for you? Did you have difficulty spending $10 million on charity?
Or on pleasure? Did you actually curse me when it came to some of
these categories, as if it were ridiculous to imagine spending such
an outlandish amount of money?
Ahhhh…But this
is the life of a billionaire. It’s not just about having a beautiful
family, expensive cars, magnificent jewelry and a huge home that
magically cleans itself. There is a tremendous amount of responsibility
involved. In fact, security may be a part of your basic needs. There
will be a professional money manager handling your investments.
You’ll have a staff to maintain, a business to run and employees
to provide for. When you become a billionaire, it is more like being
royalty. You have to imagine yourself at the center of a large estate,
with people on your payroll, with investments and orchards to fertilize,
harvest and maintain. When you think of education, you’ll be considering
the benefits to the community of having neighbors and employees
with a higher skill set, not just your own increased brain power.
You cannot drive your Hummer through a war zone to your gated estate
– for long. (History proves me right on this one.)
Some people
find it very easy to spend $120 million on long-term fun (your own
island or a theme park, ala Walt Disney’s Disneyland). Others wouldn’t
dream of that kind of narcissism and could only imagine a long-term
fun budget of $120 million each year that benefited the rest of
humanity (launching a Shakespeare in the Park series all across
the Southwest, sponsoring summer camps for underprivileged youth,
putting playgrounds into underfunded urban elementary schools.).
What many people
come to realize through this exercise is that money is not happiness.
Money becomes a responsibility. It doesn’t matter how big and beautiful
your home is, if the neighborhood outside is at war, and, conversely,
if there are big beautiful parks in the city, like Central Park
in Manhattan, people can live in smaller spaces and still feel happy.
Most people can’t come close to spending $100 million a month on
pleasure…until they include other people. And then, magically, it
becomes easy.
A side benefit
of this exercise is that it shatters old (and largely untrue) myths
about being a wealthy business owner. When you see money as abundance—like
a farmer sharing more fruit than s/he can eat with her neighbors—you
can love the idea of becoming rich enough to be abundant and prosperous
and sharing the fruit of your yield. You have a plan that is well
balanced, which keeps you honest and humble without being self-sacrificing.
Americans as individuals are the most giving humans on the planet.
Many of us are no longer stuck in survival mode and are able to
share our abundance with other humans around the globe. These are
the gifts of prosperity—a world that works for all.
But the truly
most important aspect of this exercise is that you uncover the true
you—who you would be and how you would act if you had all of the
money in the world. There is no reason why you can’t start activating
that vision now. If you hate war, then refuse to invest in mutual
funds that invest in defense companies. If you hate cigarettes and
cancer, stop investing in Altria (which is Philip Morris’s tobacco
company). Put your money where your heart is and watch the world
become more beautiful as a result.
In fact:
MAKE A COMMITMENT Write down three things you can do right here
and now to start walking the golden brick road to the life of your
dreams.
1. ______________________________________
2. ______________________________________
3. ______________________________________
The
Bottom Line
We
live in a time when single mums can be richer than queens and an
immigrant can be one of the richest people in America, like Sergey
Brin, the cofounder of Google. J. K. Rowling was able to dream up
an entire universe around Hogwarts, complete with Quiddich and He
Who Must Not Be Named. She is now richer than the Queen of England.
Your dream life should be as rich.
Three
Takeaway Tips
- How would
you live if you had all of the money in the world? You can unlock
that passion, have that vision for yourself and start walking
that path right here and now.
- The road
to prosperity means that you are focused on thriving—on your investments
(the first check you write), your charities (which lead you to
a new network of friends), your education (which increases your
income) and your fun (health is wealth).
- Basic needs,
including housing, car, gas, insurance, taxes, debt repayment,
credit card bills, etc. should not exceed 50 percent of your income.
Oftentimes, writing checks for education and investments means
you write a smaller check to the IRS. Not more money, just a different
allocation, and a different way of thinking.
This is an excerpt,
chapter 8, of You
Vs. Wall Street – a great New Year/New You gift
at just $11 that can be delivered right to their door!
You
vs. Wall Street
"provides almost fool proof methods for growing wealth
for the long haul," according to Success Magazine. Readers
call You Vs. Wall Street a "must-read financial bible,"
and "just what some readers need to find themselves exponentially
richer in the coming years." You vs. Wall Street teaches
you how to win on Wall Street in any market—bull or bear. Now is
the time to choose wisdom over blind faith, to invest in winning
companies and to whistle all the way to your local bailed out bank.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide
to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace!
Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace,
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
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The Fed Stands Pat.
by Liz
Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment
Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
December
16, 2009
Key points
- The
Fed keeps the fed funds target in a range of 0%-0.25%.
- The
accompanying statement noted the improving economy with still-subdued
inflation.
- Investors
should begin anticipating a change in Fed policy, possibly by
mid-2010.
 |
| |
There were few
surprises in the statement accompanying the Federal Reserve's decision
today to maintain the fed funds rate's target range of 0%-0.25%.
Specifically, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) repeated
its pledge to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for "an extended
period" while highlighting that the economy has strengthened further.
Take a look at my previous
Fed commentary, specifically on likely "exit strategies."
FOMC statement's particulars
Highlights from the FOMC's statement: "Household spending appears
to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained
by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth,
and tight credit."
Although the FOMC noted that deterioration in the labor market was
"abating," it did go on to clarify that "businesses are still cutting
back on fixed investment" and "remain reluctant to add to payrolls."
Further, low rates are contingent upon "low rates of resource utilization
[employment], subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations."
This last reference to inflation expectations was new last month.
There are several reasons why the market didn't expect much of a
change in today's statement. Key among them is the upcoming Senate
Banking Committee vote on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's nomination
to be reappointed, which will be followed by the Senate's confirmation
hearing.
Although we expect a confirmation, it will not be without some furor.
It was unlikely the Fed would rock the boat with any major statement
surprises in advance of those key events.
Inflation is still subdued
The Fed continues to express its view that inflation remains "subdued,"
notwithstanding this week's higher-than-forecasted Producer Price
Index (PPI).
We are also in the camp that believes inflation is not set to accelerate
meaningfully. I've written extensively about the very weak velocity
of money (also called the money multiplier), which is the ratio
of M2 money supply to the monetary base.
Simply put, it measures whether the liquidity that's been pumped
into the financial system is getting into the real economy. Presently,
it's not (in other words, velocity is quite weak).
Indeed, the PPI reported this week was up more than expected, but
it was mainly due to a spike in energy prices that is already in
the process of being reversed. Those price increases are being "trapped"
in the early phases of the production cycle and aren't getting through
to the consumer.
In fact, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), also reported this week,
was tamer, with nearly all the small increases due to the spike
in energy prices.
Both CPI and PPI remain well within the Fed's target range. The
underlying trend in core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains
down and will unlikely accelerate due to both the aforementioned
weak velocity of money and the downward pressure on unit labor costs.
Over one-third of the core CPI is driven by "owners' equivalent
rent."
With the highest residential vacancy rate in more than 53 years
and continued wage pressures on workers, rents are likely to remain
depressed … and so will core CPI. This should help keep the Fed
from having to get too aggressive as it looks to unwind its monetary
stimulus later in 2010.
Job losses "abating"
The Fed's other mandate, aside from "price stability" (inflation),
is "resource utilization" (employment). Given December's better-than-expected
tally of job losses and a lower unemployment rate, the fed funds
futures market now shows a greater-than-50% chance the Fed will
start raising rates by mid-year 2010.
Historically, the Fed began to raise rates soon after the unemployment
rate began to fall, but in today's environment of high absolute
unemployment, not to mention record "underemployment," it is likely
to be more patient than in the past.
Fed's asset purchases winding down
Finally, a comment on the Fed's asset purchase program. Today, the
Fed said it will continue purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities
(MBS) totaling $1.25 trillion and about $175 billion of agency debt
through the first quarter of 2010.
It reiterated that "most of the Federal Reserve's special liquidity
facilities will expire on February 1, 2010." This is not a big deal
given that balances are near zero anyway.
The statement further noted, "The Federal Reserve expects that amounts
provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled
back in early 2010."
There is some risk the Fed might have to extend its asset purchases
if the recent decline in M2 money supply excluding Fed purchases
continues. Essentially, the Fed has been buying to offset the contraction
in the private sector's contribution to M2.
Be careful what you wish for
As we head into 2010, remember this: When rates begin to rise, they'll
be coming from an emergency level of zero.
To those folks out there who fret the possibility of rate hikes
before 2011, I say I would fret an economic set of circumstances
that justifies 0% interest rates for that extended a period.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market cheer the beginning
of a rate hike cycle. It would be suggestive of a more self-sustaining
economic recovery and would certainly reward prudent savers, many
of whom are retirees.
Important
Disclosures
The information provided here is for general informational purposes
only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation
or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned
here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review
an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before
making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice
in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein
from third party providers is obtained from what are considered
reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability
cannot be guaranteed.
Examples provided are for illustrative (or "informational") purposes
only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect
to achieve.
|
|

Take Some Profits!
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List. NASDAQ was gold in 2009, but it’s
important to polish up your profits before they lose their luster.
December
18, 2009
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Monday, 12.18.09
|
Gains 3-yr,
2-yr & 1 yr.
|
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 9,034.69
|
Dow: 10,301.69
|
-17% & -21%
& +14%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 1,632.21
|
Nasdaq: 2,203.34
|
-9% & -16%
& +35%
|
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 931.80
|
S&P: 1,099.58
|
-22% & -24%
& +18%
|
Wall
Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547 (3.9.09)
|
14,164 (10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ Composite Index
|
1,114 (10.9.02)
|
5,060.34 (3.10.00)
|
Hot
News on Cool Stocks Highlights!
516%
gains on U.S. Gold!
NASDAQ
Leads Market Returns, With 35% Gains -- compared to +30% rise
in gold prices and +14% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
84% of
the positions listed in 2008 & 2009 are in the money. Woo
hoo!
TipsTraders
ranked me #11, above over 830 A-list pundits, in 2008.
Market
Update:
IMPORTANT
SCAM ALERT FOR DISTRESSED HOME OWNERS:
"Foreclosure
rescue scams that have taken up residence in nearly every community
appear to be even more prevalent in stronger market areas where
retaining title to a home is more economically feasible. One counselor
in Los Angeles told me that as many as 80 percent of the homeowners
she counseled had been victims of rescue scams." Federal Reserve
Board Governor Elizabeth A. Duke.
Time to Take
Your Profits
NASDAQ
is up 35% on the year, performing better than gold, which has posted
only 30% gains on the year. So, as you can see, there are different
parts of the "stock market" that perform very differently.
That is why the formula listed below has worked so beautifully for
the last 12 years, through bull and bear markets – and also why
it is critically important to rebalance your nest egg (and take
your profits) at least once a year.
If you were
using the old strategy of "buy and hold," you have lost
money in the last three years and over the last decade. If
you were capturing your gains every year, this year you get 35%
in NASDAQ, 30% in gold and 14% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Last year, you had most of your assets safe and weren’t hit
with the colossal losses — up to almost half of your nest egg if
you weren’t properly protected. In 2007, you would have made
almost 60 cents on the dollar in clean energy. Each year,
one or more of your hot industries and/or diversified size/style
funds balloon and you capture the gains before it busts. And
you always have at least a percent equal to your age safe.
So, if you want
to capture the stock market gains while you can, and make sure they
never disappear down the Wall Street drain again, below are three
easy ways you can do just that!
Easy
Nest Egg Strategy that works in Bull and Bear Markets:
- Keep a percent
equal to your age safe (not invested in stocks). (In recessions,
overweight an additional 20% safe.)
- Diversify
the remaining amount into 10 ETFs – 4 Hot industries and 6 by
size/style
- Rebalance
once or twice a year.
Learn the details
of how to do this in my new paperback, You
Vs. Wall Street. At just $11, it’s a great gift
that can be delivered right to their door. Barnes and Noble is offering
free delivery with an order of $25 or more.
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Recently, I
had a very engaging conversation with a bright entrepreneur who
wondered if the whole subprime mess could have been prevented with
greater regulation. My answer surprised her. I said, "The whole
mess could have been prevented if we adhered to capitalism, instead
of cronyism, and further, we can clean it up a lot faster today,
if Main Street takes their rightful ownership of Wall Street."
What?
Yes, I mean
to tell you that you indeed have far more power than you know, and
if you exercise a little of it, you could get this country on track
much faster than you will by picketing, joining a political party
or whining. Vote with your dollars. Not just your consumer dollars,
but also your investing dollars. Derail cronyism economics and distrust
the current push toward socialism. Capitalism works – if society
allows poorly run enterprises to bite the dust. Your role in this
means that you can no longer be tricked into bailing out bad companies
with your taxpayer dollars or your investment dollars. Learn
to value your wisdom of the shopper, more than the slick advertisements
you see on television. (Get this wisdom in my new paperback, You
Vs. Wall Street.)
Why own a bailed
out bank? (And yes, you very likely do own a bailed out bank in
your 401(k), IRA, pension or annuity since over 10% of the Dow Jones
Industrial Average – the most popular holdings on Wall Street --
was bailed out in 2008 and 2009.) You are probably invested in a
company that would be bankrupt due to bad business practices, is
now hording the cash it was bailed out with, and is foreclosing
on the very clients it hard sold into buying property and/or refinancing
in 2005. Why take ownership in that?
Let’s take a
scenario where the bank is not bailed out – where capitalism, not
cronyism, prevails.
A bank that
majored in subprime loans gets into trouble. It has a high number
of loans foreclosing. Now, if the bank was hard-selling "no
doc liar’s loans" with no down payment to anyone with a pulse,
chances are that corporation is going to bite the dust. If a candy
manufacturer spiked its chocolate with arsenic and was killing its
clients, that company wouldn’t last very long either. Companies
that specialized in selling homes to people who could not afford
them, just so that they could bag the sale and report increased
earnings to stakeholders, to push up the price of their stock and
make their executives (who started cashing out in the hundreds of
millions) rich deserve to go down and will be the first to implode.
They have ruined the lives and credit ratings of so many of their
former clients, and the punishment for running a business poorly
is the business fails.
Many of the
"too big to fail" banks were diversified and had been
in business long enough to stay afloat while they figured out how
to deal with the real estate downturn – if they had began the assessment
early enough. The first thing those banks would have to do is to
figure out how to keep people making their mortgage payments. The
majority of people in 2009 were giving back homes because they couldn’t
make the payment, not because the value of the home was underwater.
Therefore, since the majority of a loan is interest, not principal,
the banks could have afforded to restructure the loan for a few
years for their clients, instead of watching so many of the adjustable
rate mortgages reset into astronomical payments that their clients
didn’t have a prayer of paying. This would have kept people in their
homes, kept revenue flowing into the bank and slowed the erosion
of home values.
The bailouts
hurt this process greatly because once the banks had the capital
to shore up their reserves, they stopped working with their clients
to restructure their loans. There was no incentive to do it! The
banks had even less incentive to restructure their loans when the
mark to market accounting rules were lifted. So, now, many banks
have "rolling loans" on their books, where the homeowner
has given them back the keys, but the bank has not yet declared
the loss on their books.
What does this
have to do with you?
If you took
a look at the companies you own in your 401(k), IRA, pension and
annuity and refused to own stock in companies that were bailed out,
the market price of those companies would go down. There would be
great incentive for a new bank with better business practices to
come in and offer a better banking experience to its clients. Vote
with your dollars and vote with your investments as well. For more
information on how to invest in the companies that are making great
products and services, read You
Vs. Wall Street. At just $11, it makes a great gift
that can be delivered right to their door. (Barnes and Noble is
offering free shipping with orders of $25 or more.) To avoid investing
in companies that you hate, read my article, "Don’t
Invest in Things You Hate," from the December
2009 ezine.
Different
Styles for Dealing with the Great Recession
|
Capitalism
|
Cronyism
|
Socialism
|
|
Subprime
Crisis
|
No bailout.
Banks figure out how to rewrite homeowner loans or fail. When
banks fail, new entrepreneurs start up and existing enterprises
that didn’t fail are strengthened. (Doing the right thing
is rewarded.)
|
$700 billion
bailout. Banks have no incentive to help homeowners. Banks
horde capital. The very jerks who got us into the mess in
the first place still have their jobs and probably got a bonus.
|
Government
owns banks, limits pay of executives and ties up reform in
red tape. Lots of noise. Slow recovery. Trying to force the
banks to rewrite the loans, while at the same time assuring
them that the bailout dough will flow isn’t keeping people
in their homes.
|
|
Recession
|
Lower
taxes. Let consumers and businesses decide where to spend
their dollars. Stimulus begins almost immediately. The companies
making the best products and services are rewarded with earnings.
|
White
House shafts Chrysler bondholders and gives majority stake
to unions. Meanwhile, Japanese auto makers lead the charge
for fuel efficient cars.
|
Stimulus
package has bureaucrats tied up in red tape. Very little of
the promised billions has been distributed to date, only $15
billion of the promised $787 billion. Distribution of stimulus
money is slow, as is recovery.
|
You are invested
in the course of the U.S. with your taxpayer dollars and your investment
dollars. Start fueling a world that works for everyone. Stop blindly
checking off boxes in your 401(k), IRA, pension and annuity. Stop
investing in cronyism economics. Point your dollars at the companies
that make the best products and services on the planet and you spark
a real recovery. Stay naïve and under-educated and you are
a cog in the wheel of the status quo – of bailouts, bureaucracy
and boom/bust cycles.
Knowing what
you own is made easy-as-a-pie chart in my book, You
Vs. Wall Street: Grow What You’ve Got and Win Back What You Lost.
So have a little
faith (not blind faith) that you can do this, if you just get the
right tools and education. You’ll find out how to make the magic
of Stock Report Cards and pie charts work to provide you with money
while you sleep in the pages of You
Vs. Wall Street.
You
vs. Wall Street
"provides almost fool proof methods for growing wealth
for the long haul," according to Success Magazine. Readers
call You Vs. Wall Street a "must-read financial bible,"
and "just what some readers need to find themselves exponentially
richer in the coming years." You vs. Wall Street teaches
you how to win on Wall Street in any market—bull or bear. Now is
the time to choose wisdom over blind faith, to invest in winning
companies and to whistle all the way to your local bailed out bank.
• MASTER THE
UNIQUE THREE-PART INVESTMENT PLAN
• LEARN
HOW TO AVOID THE BAILOUT INDEX
• DISCOVER
THE FOOLPPROOF GET RICH AND STAY RICH PROGRAM
• FIND
OUT HOW TO AVOID THE TOP ELEVEN INVESTING MISTAKES
I also teach
these strategies in a 3-day investing retreat. Investors who attend
the retreat walk out with a blueprint that works for the rest of
their life. They have selected the exact ten funds they are most
interested in, and know how to select new funds as different industries
become the next hot thing. They know which months are best for profit-taking
and which for buying back in, historically, to maximize the potential
for capturing gains annually.
If you are
interested in attending my March 27-29, 2010 Get Rich and Green
investing retreat in Santa Monica, California (the best place to
be in March), please call 866.476.7442 or email info@NataliePace.com
right away. The retreat only seats a dozen people, and only a handful
of seats remain. As my gift to you, I’ve extended the early bird
rates of $999/person (based upon two people registering together)
or $1299/person through January 31, 2010. This is the perfect New
Year New You gift to yourself and your spouse. Spring at Santa Monica
Beach getting financial smarts that will pay off forever.
Groups like
the Green Goddess Investment Club are reporting 48% gains over the
last 12 months, using my strategies. "With the valuable guidance
of our mentor Natalie Pace we out performed the bear market with
the extraordinary result of 48% GAINS!!!!!!" Cindy Ciscowski,
President, Green Goddess Investment Club. Options traders and Certified
Financial Planners brag that their portfolio returns are "staggering,"
in the wake of learning my methods, after just three days of training.
Other retreat attendees earn back the price of he retreat in the
first week.
Track Record
of our Reporting
While
the markets are still down significantly since their high in October
of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning
track record – in bear and bull market years. 88 positions
listed below – 84% -- have delivered impressive gains over the past
two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading
lower than it was ten years ago! Only seventeen of our listings
went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite
impressive given the horrible market drop of 2008-2009.
Yes, many, but
not all, of our top performers in 2008 and 2009 are shorts, which
is why we added options training to the retreat. Remember that the
trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing years.
3 out
of 6 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains
(Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.
MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of
News Corp’s success with shareholders that year. So three
out of six are superperformers, and one (Myspace) performed well
above the market. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top
on Wall Street. (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02,
and featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)
TipsTraders.com
continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with
their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied
the #1 position and have consistently scored at the top of their
830 A-list pundits. I scored a #11 ranking for 2008. Some of my
best picks include: Google (GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio
Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
+107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in
2008 and 2009 were put options – on the Cooling Off list -- which
is why I added options training to my 3-day Get Rich and Green Investing
Retreat. Look on the Cooling Off list for details on the incredible
gains options investors enjoyed on Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Toll
Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.
This stock newsletter
was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
- Avoid General
Motors and other American auto-manufacturers in 2004
- Get out
of Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Trim back
on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Lehman
Bros’
colossal insider selling in 2006
Market
Movers:
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds
rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the 11.04.09
meeting press release, the Federal Reserve Board further elaborated
on the reasoning behind the rock bottom rates, writing: "Household
spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing
job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight
credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and
staffing, though at a slower pace... Economic activity is likely
to remain weak for a time."
That is Fed-speak
for "We are doing everything to stimulate the economy, which
should work eventually, but the situation is still rough, folks."
Deflation is no longer much of a concern, and the Feds think that
inflation is far enough away that Fed Fund rates will remain exceptionally
low for an "extended period."
The Milken
Institute estimates that the bailout to date has already
cost the taxpayer $9.8 trillion.
The next FOMC
meeting takes place on December 15-16, 2009.
Second
Estimate GDP growth rates for 2Q 2009 were revised downward
to 2.8% (from 3.5%) according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This was the first positive GDP growth rate since the 4th
quarter of 2007. Final GDP growth rates for 2Q 2009 and 1Q 2009
were a decline of -0.7% & -5.5%, respectively. The economy contracted
at -6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008. What happened between
2008 and 3Q 2009? Massive government spending is the main driver
of the economy at this point. The Cash for Clunkers Program is responsible
for over half of the GDP growth, both in government incentives and
stimulated, incentive-related consumer spending.
Final GDP growth
rates for 3Q 2009 were released on December 22, 2009 at 8:30 a.m.
ET (after press time). These release days tend to be very active
on Wall Street. No surprise that the 3rd quarter of 2009
was the first positive GDP report since the 4th quarter
of 2007, however, if the second estimates came in lower than 2.8%,
investors could lose confidence (and vice versa if the numbers were
revised upward). For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1.
FOMC Information: Interested in reading the press
release of the December 15-16, 2009 FOMC meeting for yourself?
You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2009 calendar is: January 26-27, 2010
(Tuesday-Wednesday), March 16 (Tuesday), April 27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
June 22-23 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 10 (Tuesday), September 21
(Tuesday), November 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 14 (Tuesday),
January 25-26, 2011 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more:
Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. Be
the first to know the dates of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks
Update and the publication date of our next ezine. Join me on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com.
Don’t miss the
Modern Girls’ Guide to Sex, Love and Money Show with Natalie
Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com, Wednesdays at 9:00 a.m. PT. There
I interview experts on everything from gold, to health, to stocks,
to writing blockbuster books. Get real answers to your questions
— anonymously (just pick a nickname when you call in).
Get call-in
and log-in instructions at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
This is a Q&A format, where you can call in or Twitter in your
questions. Be sure to write down your most pressing questions now,
and become a friend to Natalie Pace on Twitter at Twitter.com/NataliePace,
so that you can Tweet on the show.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page! How
are you feeling about the New Year? Rejuvenated? Worn out?
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending)
and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement is scheduled for January 14, 2010 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
(February 4, 2010 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual
stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
None
Profit-Taking
(Take your profits early and often):
KCI Concepts
(KCI) +75%
LDK
Solar (LDK) +36%
U.S. Gold (UXG) +462%
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
New Zealand
Dollar currency ETF by WisdomTree (BNZ) on 12.14.09 Ener1 (HEV)
deleted on 12.18.09 Satcon (SATC) deleted on 12.18.09
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
| Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol |
Price
when featured |
Price
12.18.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
American Superconductor
|
Yes
|
AMSC
|
$30.70
|
$39.94
|
$37.58
$8.22
|
+30%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should
benefit from President Obama’s commitment to build a "a
new smart grid to carry electricity from coast to coast."
11.19.09 press release: The company
reaffirmed that it expects revenues will grow more than 60
percent to a range of $300 million to $310 million in its
fiscal 2009 compared to approximately $183 million in fiscal
2008. The company maintained its guidance for GAAP net income
of $11 million to $13 million, or $0.24 to $0.29 per diluted
share, for fiscal 2009. On a non-GAAP basis, the company continues
to expect net income of $27 million to $29 million, or $0.59
to $0.64 per diluted share, for full year fiscal 2009.
For fiscal 2010, the company expects
to grow revenues to more than $400 million. The company also
expects to generate GAAP net income of more than $36 million,
or more than $0.77 per diluted share, and a non-GAAP profit
of more than $54 million, or more than $1.15 per diluted share,
for fiscal 2010.
"With more than $300 million
of fiscal 2010 backlog in hand today, we have a strong platform
to grow our total revenues to more than $400 million in fiscal
2010," said Greg Yurek, AMSC’s founder and chief executive
officer. "We expect substantial earnings growth in fiscal
2010, driven by increased revenues, greater productivity in
all of our operations, and lower manufacturing costs as the
result of initiatives we have undertaken in recent quarters."
|
|
AOL
|
No
|
AOL
|
$23.00
|
$23.57
|
$27.00
$23.00
|
+2%
|
|
Read "AOL:
From LOL to OMG"
from Vol. 6, issue 12.
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$2.00
(3.2.09)
|
$2.56
|
$14.55
$1.90
|
-68% &
+28%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.
Hoku's key project schedule (based
upon work resuming in October): completing a reactor demonstration
in December 2009, completing construction of 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon production capacity in March 2010, and
completing construction of the full 4,000 metric tons of capacity,
including on-site trichlorosilane (TCS) production, in December
2010.
On September 29, 2009, Hoku announced
that Tianwei was investing in Hoku and debt financing would
be provided by Tianwei and China Construction Bank for the
construction and development of Hoku's polysilicon production
facility in Pocatello, Idaho. Hoku confirmed that the $50
million in debt, plus prepayments from its existing customers,
is expected to be sufficient to complete construction to the
point where it could commence shipments to customers, and
it intends to delay any additional financing until such time.
On the basis of these funding sources, Hoku reported it is
preparing to issue orders to resume full scale plant construction
at an accelerated pace upon closing of the financing, which
is expected to occur in October 2009.
You can see the facility’s progress
on the home page at HokuCorp.com.
|
|
Kinetic Concepts, Inc.
|
No
|
KCI
|
$38.81
$21.05
(12.1.08)
|
$36.85
|
$43.00
$17.86
|
-5% &
+75%
|
|
Read the article, "Beauty
is Skin Deep,"
in Vol. 5, issue 5. If you made a profit of 68%, take your
profits early and often!
REPORTED 3Q 2009 EARNINGS ON 10.21.09.
2009: third quarter 2009 total revenue of $504.4 million,
compared to $503.3 million reported for the third quarter
of 2008. Total revenue for the first nine months of 2009 was
$1.466 billion, up 6% from the prior-year period. Net earnings
for the third quarter of 2009 were $64.6 million, or $0.91
per diluted share, compared to $53.9 million, or $0.75 per
diluted share, for the third quarter of 2008, representing
increases of 20% and 21%, respectively, from the prior-year
periods.
Entered Japanese market on 11.2.09.
FDA approved ABThera™ Open
Abdomen Negative Pressure Therapy System on June 11, 2009.
The new therapy has already been launched, according to Catherine
M. Burzik, KCI’s President and CEO. "I am very pleased
to see the progress of KCI’s business in light of continued
economic and competitive pressures," said Catherine Burzik,
President and Chief Executive Officer of KCI. "KCI continues
to meet its goals in terms of innovation, global market expansion
and operational efficiency. We recently introduced our highly
innovative open abdominal wound system, AbThera, to operating
room surgeons in the U.S. and Europe and we are on track with
our plans for the launch of V.A.C. Therapy in Japan. We look
forward to the second half of the year with confidence."
KCI won its suit in the U.S. against
Smith and Nephew to prevent them from selling foam dressing
kits. On June 15, 2009, The Federal Court of Australia, Victoria
District Registry, issued a temporary injunction prohibiting
Smith & Nephew. Trial in Australia is set for 2010. UK
issued a temporary injunction and the German courts are considering
the same action as well. Smith & Nephew has vowed to appeal.
|
|
LDK Solar
GREEN
|
Yes
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$6.71
|
$76.75
$3.75
|
-78% &
+36%
|
|
If you made a profit of 60%,
take your profits early and often!
Read the articles, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
News
on 11.2.09 that Q-Cells (QCE.F), the German solar cell
company, has terminated an agreement under which LDK supplied
Q-Cells with solar wafers and was threatening to draw back
on its prepayment of $244.4 million to LDK disheartened investors.
Shares were off by over 18% in early trading…
3Q 2009 earnings: Third quarter
2009 revenue was $281.9 million, compared to $228.3 million
for the second quarter of fiscal 2009, and $541.8 million
for the third quarter of fiscal 2008. Net income was $29.4
million, compared to a net loss of $216.9 million for the
second quarter of fiscal 2009.
LDK Solar ended the third quarter
of 2009 with $67.8 million in cash and cash equivalents and
$72.7 million in short-term pledged bank deposits.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$11.99
|
$12.50
|
$73.56
$11.32
|
+5%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
Acquisition of solar developer
SunEdison (announced on 10.22.09) should start putting meat
on MEMC’s bottom line in 2010. They now enter solar power
generation with an A-list company in that field. Recovering
after silicon re-pricing completely threw off their profit
margins. Better times going forward.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$24.83
$20.38
(12.1.09)
|
$24.41
|
$107.00
$18.50
|
Flat &
+20%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side"
in Vol. 6, issue 3.
Sunpower panels are the most efficient
in the world and have helped countless Solar Decathlon teams
win the competition. This year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois
and California) both used Sunpower panels.
3Q earnings on 10.22.09: Record
Q3 2009 revenue of $466 million.
$800 million in cash and investments.
Announced on 12.16.09 that the
Montalto di Castro solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant, the
largest in Italy, has been completed and is contributing clean,
renewable solar power to Italy's national electric grid. The
plant, located in Italy's Viterbro province, Lazio, was connected
to the grid on November 30, several weeks ahead of schedule.
According to SunRay, the plant produces enough power for 13,000
homes, and avoids the emissions of 22,000 tons of carbon dioxide
per year. This project is the first phase of a planned 85-megawatt
development that is expected to be fully operational in 2010.
1 MW system for UC Merced has been
financed by Wells Fargo. The system uses SunPower solar panels,
the most efficient solar panels on the market, with the SunPower
T20 Tracker(R) system. The Tracker follows the sun's movement
during the day, capturing up to 30 percent more sunlight than
conventional fixed-tilt systems, while significantly reducing
land use requirements.
SunPower has more than 550 large
public and commercial solar power systems installed or under
contract, representing more than 450 megawatts of solar power
generation.
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado USA
RISK: VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$.50 (10.20)
$2.66 (10.09)
|
$2.31
|
$7.04
$.38
|
-54% &
462% &
-13%
|
|
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing
gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based
in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining
company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should
spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very
risky.
NOTE: The mantra this year continues
to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve made a
return of five times your investment, consider taking some
of your profits. Since gold is still in favor (in our view)
and U.S. Gold has not hit its full potential (in my view),
I’m keeping this company on the Hot News List. Profit-taking
is not the same as selling off all of the position.
Added to the S&P/TSX Global
Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09.
If you believe in this CEO and
company, you’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S.
Gold going forward. Gold should be a great hedge against inflation,
which is predicted to become an issue once the economy starts
to rebound (2010 and forward). Right now, the Feds are still
a little concerned about deflation, but inflation could begin
on the 12-24 month horizon.
This is an exploration company,
not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time.
Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol.
3, issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com
channel. You can review my
original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on
U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).
|
Recently
Deleted Companies 2008/2009:
Echelon +20%,
GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson
+10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%,
Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08)
+40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek
(deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was
deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking
on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken
on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1
and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1 and
12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits
20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On
2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de
Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42%
on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%.
OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto
was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following
companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%),
GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC
(+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%)
and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%,
AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted
4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google
+9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%,
SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpac +42%
& -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19% gains.
PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with 50% losses.
WSDT with losses of -59%. Deleted 5.15.09: SQM with
gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09: EMKR with losses
of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1 with gains of
11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy with losses of -52-98%. Deleted
Smith and Nephew on 8.15.09 with gains of 17% and losses of 28%.
Deleted the New Zealand dollar currency ETF by Wisdom Tree with
36% gains on 12.12.09. 12.18.09: Deleted Ener1 with 22% gains and
Satcon with 29% gains.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
|
Ener1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$4.92
|
$5.99
|
$9.49
$2.35
|
+22%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Won an award of $118.5 million from
the Obama Administration to develop batteries for hybrid and
electric vehicles. Was mentioned by name by President Obama
in his remarks of August 5, 2009. 12.7.09 press release: ITOCHU
purchased 3.2 million shares of common stock from Ener1 at
a price of $6.18 per share. Recent announcements stemming
from Ener1's partnership with ITOCHU include the first project
in the world linking grid storage, electric vehicles, rapid
recharging infrastructure and solar power, working alongside
Mazda Corporation and Think Global electric vehicle company;
the conversion of Japanese Postal trucks in the Kanagawa and
Tokyo Prefectures; and the development of one of the world's
most advanced rapid recharge technologies, working alongside
Kyushu Electric Power (KEPCO), the fourth largest power and
utility company in Japan.
In August 2009, the company received
a $118 million cost-share grant from the U.S. Department of
Energy, which will be used to help double the company's domestic
production capacity.
|
|
New Zealand Dollar currency ETF
by WisdomTree
|
No
|
BNZ
|
$25.17
$18.49
(12.1.08)
|
$25.20
|
$25.31
$16.67
|
Flat &
+36%
|
|
If you made a profit of 36%,
take your profits early and often!
Read the article, "Foreign
Investing:
From BRICs to Barbeys,"
in Vol. 5, issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand
is the new attraction on the world currency markets. New Zealand
has the highest interest rate in the industrialized world.
Currently, the Official Cash Rate is 2.5%. Reserve Bank Governor
Alan Bollard, at the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand, wrote in a press release
on June 11, 2009, "The recent rise in the New Zealand
dollar creates an unhelpful tension with our projections.
A stronger dollar at a time of weak global growth risks delaying
or even reversing the projected increase in exports, putting
the sustainability of recovery at risk… We expect to keep
the OCR at or below the current level through until the latter
part of 2010."
|
|
Satcon
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.93
|
$2.49
|
$2.57
$1.08
|
+29%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. Certainly could benefit from the $3.4 billion
that President Obama awarded on October 27, 2009 to Smart
Grid and Clean Power projects. The company makes power converters
as well as grid monitoring systems, and was the company of
choice when Google built their solar plant.
Beware, however, of the continuing
losses and constricted capital environment that has been so
troublesome for clean energy in 2009.
3Q 2009 earnings on Oct. 28, 2009:
$11.7 million in revenue and a net loss of $8.5 million. Annual
report is expected on 12.31.09.
"While total sales were down
year over year due to the global recession, revenue for the
third quarter increased 27% over the second quarter of 2009,"
said Steve Rhoades, Satcon’s President and Chief Executive
Officer. "Our top-line growth highlights the successful
execution of our corporate strategy to develop and launch
the industry’s most advanced utility scale solar PV inverter
solutions. In addition, we began to see an increase in bookings
in North America, Europe and China, resulting in current backlog
of over $24 million, positioning us for a solid fourth quarter."
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
Ford
Motor Company (F)
Recent
Deletions:
ENER1
(Symbol: HEV). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
MEMC
Electronics (WFR). Moved to Hot News list on 12.1.09.
Microsoft (MSFT). Moved to Cooling Off list on 12.1.09.
Satcon (Symbol: SATC). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
Sunpower Solar (Symbol: SPWRA). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
12.18.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Altair Nano-technology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.16
|
$0.85
|
$2.94
$0.60
|
-27%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
Vol. 6, issue 4.
Altair was not on the list of
battery makers receiving grants from the Obama Administration.
3Q earnings on November 5, 2009:
Revenues of $1.7 million, down from $1.8 million for the same
period in 2008. The net loss was $3.3 million, compared
to a net loss of $9.1 millionfor the third quarter of 2008.
The Company's cash and cash equivalents
decreased by $4.1 million, from $28.1 million at December
31, 2008 to $23.9 million at September 30, 2009. This is due
primarily to net cash used in operations of approximately
$18.1 million, $4.8 million of which was for increased product
inventories; investing activities primarily consisting of
purchases of fixed assets of approximately $0.6 million offset
by $2.0 million received from the sale of our Spectrum common
stock; and financing activities that include payment of notes
payable of $0.6 million offset by $12.8 million of proceeds
relating to the issuance of common shares in May 2009.
"We have experienced an increased
level of customer requests for quotes in the past couple of
months" said Dr. Terry Copeland, Altairnano's president and
CEO. "In addition, we anticipate that potential order activity
will begin to gain traction as we enter into 2010. Given
the importance of establishing this revenue stream and having
referenceable customers for other prospects to speak with,
we need to be able to move expeditiously once we have these
initial firm orders."
During the third quarter Altairnano received the final signed
contracts for both the $3.8 million Office of Naval Research
phase 2 development program, and the Department of Defense
supported $1.8 million nanosensor project. The Company
will perform work on both of these contracts during the fourth
quarter and into the first half of 2010.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$29.36
|
$34.88
$12.40
|
-3%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
RISK: Medium
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$63.74
|
$108.79
$30.64
|
-3%
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars"
article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets
are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks
were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital.
|
|
Citigroup
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
C
|
$2.26
|
$3.40
|
$27.35
$.97
|
+50%
|
|
Financial markets are under duress.
Avoid most banks for now. Bailed out by the Feds November
2008. 1Q 2009 results will be released on 4.17.09 at 6:30
a.m. ET.
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
EBAY
|
$16.80
|
$22.67
|
$32.10
$9.91
|
+35%
|
|
Etail should perform better than
retail in the recession. But eBay is still having reduced
earnings. Waiting for a leveling off period.
|
|
Eldorado Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$10.56
|
$13.61
|
$11.39
$2.38
|
+29%
|
|
Read "Investing
in Gold"
from Vol. 6, issue 9.
|
|
First Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$135.67
|
$317.00
$85.28
|
-6%
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, issue 4.
First Solar joined S&P500 on
10.02.09. 3Q 2009 on 10.28.09: 3Q earnings revenue was down
from 2Q by -8.5%. Investors panicked and slammed shares.
First Solar uses cadmium telluride
instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy.
This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard
to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for
two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs
are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant
or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article
for more details.
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$51.36
|
$55.85
|
$80.23
$28.53
|
+9%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. FMC is the real winner of the stimulus
package because they supply lithium to the battery makers.
Waiting for a better buy-in point. FYI: FMC just sold $300
million in senior notes. Check with your CFP if you’re interested
in purchasing. There may be opportunities in the secondary
marketplace.
Annual report should be issued
near 12.31.09. Add to Hot News list in 2010?
|
|
Ford Motor
Company
|
No
|
F
|
$9.65
|
$9.65
|
$9.65
$1.50
|
--
|
|
Read "How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive,
but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any
investment here.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$393.69
|
$596.42
|
$602.45
$247.30
|
-51%
|
|
See Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes."
CEO Eric Schmidt just stepped down from the board of Apple,
Inc. Thomson Reuters said analysts expected this because Apple
and Google have begun to compete on smart phones and computer
operating systems. Note that Google’s 52-week low if $247.30
and be careful not to buy in too high.
|
|
Maxwell Labs
|
No
|
MXWL
|
$10.25
|
$16.30
|
$18.78
$4.00
|
+58%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Increased sales by 30% this 2nd
Quarter over last year, to $24.8 million from $19 million.
Net loss for Q209 was $5.3 million, compared with $4 million
the year prior. Cash on hand = $31.5 million. It is the continuing
losses and constricted capital environment that prevents us
from putting this company on the Hot List, even though sales
are jumping. We’ll look again at the 3Q 2009, which should
occur around November 11, 2009.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy
ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.78
|
$10.75
|
$23.96
$5.78
|
+10%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RTP
|
$180.79
|
$203.74
|
$558.65
$59.20
|
+13%
|
|
Gold, copper and other commodities
mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly
in Australia.
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$42.90
|
$48.58
$21.23
|
+19%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$36.36
|
$38.39
|
$59.41
$12.98
|
+6%
|
|
This is a great company that
manufactures silicon for the solar and IT industry. Looking
for a better buy-in, closer to or under $35. Annual report
on 12.31.09. Earnings were up 83% in the 3Q of 2009, compared
to 2008 3Q.
Read the article, "Treasure
Hunting", in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium,"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. SQM announced on Sept. 30, 2009 that
prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be
reduced by approximately 20% from current levels for the renewal
of all its supply contracts. The purpose is to accelerate
demand recovery, create incentives for research of new lithium
uses, and contribute to the sustainable long-term development
of the lithium market.
10.27.09 Earnings: Earnings
for the first nine months of 2009 of US$251.7 million, a decrease
of 34.0% with respect to the same period of 2008, when earnings
totaled US$381.1 million. Operating income reached US$342.0
million (32.6% of revenues), 29.0% lower than the US$481.4
million (35.0% of revenues) recorded during the first nine
months of 2008. Revenues totaled US$1,049.2 million for the
first nine months, representing a decrease of 23.8% over the
US$1,376.2 million reported in the same period of 2008.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$54.56
|
$91.50
$34.10
|
+17%
|
|
See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol.
3, issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com
channel. You can review my
original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on
U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
|
No
|
STP
|
$16.06
|
$16.98
|
$49.60
$5.09
|
+6%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic
(PV) module manufacturer.
Add to Hot News at opportune
moment in 2010?
Announced 3Q 2009 on November 20,
2009 before the markets opened. Revenues were $472.1 million,
up 47.4% from last quarter. Net income was $29.8 million,
compared to $10 million in the 2nd Q of 2009.
On 9.30.09, Suntech announced the
completion and grid connection of the first 10MW utility-scale
solar power project in China. Located in Shizuishan, Ningxia
Autonomous Region, the 10MW ground mount solar system is the
first phase of a 50MW solar plant that is targeted to be completed
by 2011 in conjunction with Suntech's strategic partner, China
Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (CECIC). In addition
to supplying high quality solar modules for the system, Suntech
designed, installed and managed the development of the solar
system and holds a minority share of the project.
|
|
Trina Solar Ltd.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$17.56
|
$51.53
|
$53.50
$5.61
|
+293%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
Dec. 1, 2009: Chinese
solar power company Trina Solar Ltd. said it signed a new
sales agreement to supply about 8 megawatts of photovoltaic
modules to the Chinese domestic market, as part of its efforts
to expand sales in China. Shipments began in November and
are to continue through the end this month. Prices were not
released. The Golden Sun program in China aims to install
20 MW of solar power capacity in every province, according
to the Associated Press.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$73.54
|
$104.83
|
$122.58
$45.16
|
+42%
|
|
Issued it’s half-year "interim"
results on May 6, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency
ETF
|
No
|
ICN
|
$24.28
|
$24.93
|
$25.71
$20.42
|
flat
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, issue 2.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
None
DELETIONS:
KB Home
(KBH)
Toll
Brothers (TOL)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 12.18.09
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American Express
|
Yes
|
AXP
|
$16.98
$41.56
(11.16.09)
|
$40.51
|
$52.63
$14.72
|
+239% &
-2.5%
|
|
Read the article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2. Earnings on 10.22.09: Income was down
25%. To $642 million from $861 million a year ago. $19 billion
in cash on hand. Debt is $55 billion ($53 long; $2 billion
"short term"), with $27 billion in "other liabilities."
Customer deposits are $24 billion.
|
|
Apple Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$132.07
$190.47 (11.16.09)
|
$195.43
|
$192.24
$78.20
|
+48% &
+3%
|
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
4Q 2009 earnings on 10.19.09 were
amazing: posted revenue of $9.87 billion and a net quarterly
profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share. These
results compare to revenue of $7.9 billion and net quarterly
profit of $1.14 billion, or $1.26 per diluted share, in the
year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7
percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted
for 46 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Apple sold 3.05 million Macintosh®
computers during the quarter, representing a 17 percent unit
increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 10.2
million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent
unit decline from the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.4 million
iPhones in the quarter, representing seven percent unit growth
over the year-ago quarter.
"We are thrilled to have sold
more Macs and iPhones than in any previous quarter,"
said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO, in the earnings press release.
"We’ve got a very strong lineup for the holiday season
and some really great new products in the pipeline for 2010."
Dr. Eric Schmidt, CEO, Google,
resigned from Apple’s board on August 3, 2009. According to
Steve Jobs, it’s because Google’s new products pose a conflict
of interest with Apple’s core biz. No surprise here. It was
expected.
On September 15, 2009, Bruce Sewell,
formerly senior vice president and general counsel of Intel
Corporation, because SVP and general counsel, replaced Daniel
Cooperman, who had the job for the last two years. Cooperman’s
departure at this time seems to be slightly more troublesome,
given that he would have been actively involved in the decision
to keep the extent of Jobs’ illness from investors (whether
he opposed or supported it).
Steve Jobs today (go to GettyImages.com
to see him speaking on Sept. 9, 2009) looks like the grandfather
of his photo on the Apple website. Apple products are amazing
and Tim Cooks, Jobs’ commander in chief, seems to do a fantastic
job. But Steve is the face and soul of Apple – especially
in investors’ eyes.
Insider selling is over $150 million
since June 2009 (after Jobs announced his liver transplant).
Consensus insider selling from multiple directors and officers.
|
|
Applied Materials
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$12.76
$13.51 (9.15.09)
|
$13.62
|
$14.19
$7.17
|
+5% &
flat
|
|
Leadership, product line and recessionary
actions were strong, but AMAT transitioned to solar just when
sales dropped off. Weathering the storm is imperative in the
meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es of this
company, which is hard to justify in a contracting environment.
With almost $2 billion in cash and marketable securities,
AMAT is in a position to regroup and recover in the future.
With any luck and with the purported US emphasis on clean
energy (which has yet to see real funding), this is a temporary
setback.
3Q loss (released on 8.11.09) was
$55 million on $1.13 billion of net sales. "In a difficult
environment, Applied improved its operating performance and
generated significant cash flow while making substantial investments
in new technologies for next-generation semiconductor chips,
flat panel displays and solar panels," said Mike Splinter,
chairman and CEO.
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$183.15
$483.60
(11.16.09)
|
$414.40
|
$397.70
$100.50
|
+226% &
-14%
|
|
Leading Chinese website for search
(similar to Google). 46 P/E is high for a revenue stream so
tied to advertising (during a global recession). (Advertising
revenue models tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s
P/E is only 30, by comparison, right now.)
The primary Risk Factor for Baidu
is: We derive revenues primarily from online marketing services,
which accounted for 98.9%, 99.8% and 99.9% of our total revenues
in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.A
|
$97,000
$102,105 (8.13.09)
|
$100,899
|
$147,000
$70,050
|
+4% &
-2%
|
|
|
|
Capital One Financial
|
No
|
COF
|
$22.29
$37.98 (9.15.09)
|
$39.50
|
$63.50
$7.80
|
+77% &
+4%
|
|
Credit card companies are under
distress. And now, the Obama Administration is setting up
a Bill of Rights for their customer. Tough times for the credit
industry continue, and this company is really experiencing
some of the toughest challenges of the field.
3Q 2009 earnings on 10.22.09: Cash
and cash equivalents were $4.1 billion, down from $4.8 billion
(2Q 2009) and down from $7.5 billion at the end of 2008. Managed
revenue increased $482.0 million, or 11.6 percent, relative
to the second quarter.
Provision expense increased $296.4
million, due to an anticipated increase in charge-offs as
well as a modest allowance build of $31.7 million in the third
quarter.
"We've worked for years to position
our company to be resilient, and our third quarter results
demonstrate that resiliency in the midst of the most challenging
economic cycle we've seen in generations," said Richard D.
Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
"We are successfully weathering the storm, but the storm is
not over. Therefore, we will continue to take the decisive
actions necessary to place our company in the best position
to navigate the downturn and drive shareholder value over
the cycle."
According to the annual earnings
report. "The adoption of SFAS 166 and SFAS 167 could
have a significant impact on the Company’s consolidated financial
statements because the Company expects it will be required
to consolidate at least some of its special purpose entities
to which pools of loan receivables have been transferred in
transactions previously qualifying as sales. Holding more
of these assets on the Company’s balance sheet may require
it to take various actions, including raising additional capital,
in order to meet regulatory capital requirements. Such capital
may not be available on terms favorable to the Company, if
at all, and could have a negative impact on the Company’s
financial results. As of June 30, 2009, the Company had
approximately $44.5 billion of credit card receivables held
by QSPEs." SFAS 166 and 167 take effect in 2010.
Read the article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2.
|
|
Fortress Investment Group
|
No
|
FIG
|
$3.57
$5.37 (8.13.09)
|
$4.45
|
$19.50
$0.77
|
+25% &
-17%
|
|
Released 3Q 2009 results on November
6, 2009. GAAP net income, excluding principal’s agreement
compensation, of $50 million. GAAP net loss of $190 million
(due to the principals taking $140 million this quarter) even
though FIG has lost 310 million this year…
Daniel H. Mudd, currently member
of the Fortress board of directors, will become the firm's
new CEO effective August 11, 2009. George W. Wellde has been
elected to Fortress' Board of Directors.
Read the articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Money
Grows on Wisdom Trees,"
from Vol. 4, issue 3. Reported earnings on 3.15.09. FY 2008
GAAP net loss of GAAP net loss of $322 million. Principals
in the company earned $222 million of that net loss.
2Q2009 earnings on 8.09: Net los
of -$171 million. Without paying the principals in the company,
the net income would have been $66 million. Man these guys
are getting paid a lot to lose a lot of dough!
On 9.22.09: dividend was canceled
by Board.
|
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$16.66
$20.25 (9.1.09)
|
$19.63
|
$25.29
$12.06
|
+18% &
-3%
|
|
Intel is a great blue chip. Sales
are off 8%, however.
|
|
Medtronic
|
No
|
MDT
|
$33.35
$37.09
(9.15.09)
|
$43.22
|
$56.97
$24.06
|
+30% &
+16%
|
|
Medtronic’s Infuse Bone Graft product
has been at the center of the debate of some controversial
deaths, and has investigated by a Congressional Panel, the
Justice Department, the SEC and other national, state and
local governance officials for issues related to the use of
this product and others. Read the earnings report for a complete
list of the complaints and current status. The company reports
that on August 21, 2009, the Department of Justice decided
not to intervene at this time but may intervene at any time
for good cause based upon a Court Order entered on August
28, 2009.
|
|
MGM Mirage
|
No
|
MGM
|
$26.79
|
$9.64
|
$100.50
$5.10
|
-64%
|
|
Get more information in Vol. 5,
issue 10 in the (No)
Viva Las Vegas
article.
The City Center project looms as
exceedingly problematic in today’s vast downturn of real estate
in the Las Vegas area. Anticipating very bad news on this
project in the near future. MGM has kept itself alive in the
harshest climate of the new millennium through selling assets,
selling more stock and taken on more debt. All of the debt
receives a junk rating from Fitch. On October 1, 2009, they
had to cancel a debt exchange offer due to low interest from
debt-holders.
Earnings on 11.5.09: Net revenue
decreased 9% to $1.5 billion. Net loss was $133 million. Debt
at the end of the quarter was $12.5 billion.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$29.64
|
$30.36
|
$30.53
$14.87
|
+2%
|
|
Read the "AOL:
From LOL to OMG"
article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card
on Microsoft from December 2009.
Great blue chip (certainly better
than Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG and GM were), if you
buy at the right price. But revenue is off. Q1 2010 earnings
report (on 10.23.09): Windows Revenue is off by 39%, down
to $2,620 million from $4,278 in 2008 1st Q. Operating
income is off 52%, down to $1,463 from $3,059 a year ago…
Nintendo’s WII is the gaming device of choice (and X-Box shipments
were down to 2.1 million, from 2.2 million). "Nongaming"
entertainment revenue is reportedly off by 14% ($98 million).
What’s nongaming entertainment? Remember Zune? Well, that
is one of the "PC hardware products" that is decreasing
in sales. (Did it ever sell at all?) You get the picture.
When revenue is down by 14% across the board, and the strongest
season – holidays – are predicted to limp along and favor
the competition (WII), and anti-trust law suits are still
being battled, best not to buy Microsoft at its 52-week high.
|
|
Sears Holding
|
Yes
|
SHLD
|
$52.93
$78.37 (8.13.09)
|
$76.27
|
$108.75
$26.80
|
+44% &
-3%
|
|
Read the articles, Cherry Picking
the "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and the "Discount
Designer Stores"
article (Vol. 5, issue
6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail chains in the
U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball and apple pie.
These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge fund, which
might help to explain why you’ve been trying to get that appliance
repaired (under warranty) for months or been waiting for a
replacement for your coffee pot for so long that you’ve taken
up drinking tea. Almost all of the board directors at Sears
are in the investment business, not the retail business. In
fact, board director Emily Scott, a TV station founder, is
the only person on the board without significant investment
experience. No one on the Sears board has any experience at
all in retail.
You can read the shareholders
letter from Chairman Eddie Lampert on the SearsHoldings.com
website. 10 minutes into the letter, and I have to call this
a rant. Big red flag folks.
Still don’t have a CEO. Bruce Johnson
is interim CEO. New CFO started last October, right before
the preparation of the annual report began. The former CFO
Miles Reidy decided that he needed to spend more time with
his family than to put is name on the 2008 annual report.
Another big red flag.
Consensus, colossal insider
selling to the tune of over $100 million, including warrants
that were exercised by interim CEO Bruce Johnson.
3Q 2009 earnings on 11.19.09: Net
loss was $127 million. Total revenues decreased $470 million
to $10.2 billion for the 13 weeks ended October 31, 2009,
as compared to total revenues of $10.7 billion for the 13
weeks ended November 1, 2008. Total debt (consisting of short-term
borrowings, long-term debt and capital lease obligations)
at November 11, 2009 was $3.8 billion, as compared to $3.2
billion (8.09). Cash on hand is $1.5 billion. Short -term
borrowings are $1.6 billion.
|
|
Taubman Centers REIT
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$33.81 (9.15.09)
|
$35.00
|
$65.99
$12.43
|
+41% &
+3.5%
|
|
Read the article, "Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.
3Q 2009 earnings on 10.26.09: Net
loss allocable to common shareholders per diluted share (EPS)
was -$1.77 for the quarter ended September 30, 2009, versus
$0.17 for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.
"The environment for retail real
estate continues to be challenging," said Robert S. Taubman,
chairman, president and chief executive officer of Taubman
Centers. "Lease cancellation income from our tenants offset
a decline in rents. In addition, we are very focused on costs
throughout our organization, which contributed to our results
during the quarter."
|
|
Time Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$29.45
|
$50.70
$17.81
|
+20%
|
|
Read the article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
Scheduled to report 3Q 2009 earnings
on Nov. 4, 2009 before the market opens.
2Q earnings on 7.29.09: In the
quarter, Revenues declined 9% from the same period in 2008
to $6.8 billion. Lower revenues at the Publishing, AOL and
Filmed Entertainment segments more than offset growth at the
Networks segment. Net Income was $519 million, down from $792
million the year prior.
CEO Jeff Bewkes said: "At
the same time, we’re continuing the reshaping of Time Warner
that we started last year. We’re on track to spin off AOL
to our stockholders around the end of the year. Separating
AOL will benefit both companies – enabling Time Warner to
concentrate fully on our core content businesses and improving
AOL’s operational and strategic flexibility."
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$20.05
$29.21
(10.15.09)
|
$26.78
|
$44.69
$7.80
|
+34% &
-8%
|
|
See "Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression,"
in Vol. 4, issue 12.
Announces 3Q earnings on Oct 21, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. PT (before
market open).
3Q 2009 on 10.21.09: 3rd consecutive
quarter of record earnings. Record Wells Fargo net income
of $3.2 billion, up 98 percent from last year; $9.5 billion
year to date, up 75 percent from last year.
Generated $20 billion during the
past six months toward the $13.7 billion Supervisory Capital
Assessment Program (SCAP) buffer
requirement; PTPP tracking above Company’s internal SCAP
estimates and 35 percent above
supervisory adverse scenario estimate. Credit reserves built
by $1.0 billion ($3.0 billion year to date), reaching $24.5
billion, or 3.07 percent of total loans and 118 percent of
nonaccrual loans.
Earnings releases from Wells Fargo
are no longer mass distributed. They are available on the
company’s website at:
https://www.wellsfargo.com/invest_relations/earnings
13,000 team members are working
on helping customers stay in their homes and Wells reports
that their "delinquency and foreclosure rates continue
to be well below the industry average."
Wells Fargo Chairman
takes early retirement:
Dick Kovacevich will step down
as chairman and a director at the end of 2009 and retire from
the Company in early 2010.
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
|
$60.02
|
$176.14
$18.06
|
-37%
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5, issue 10.
3Q 2009 results announced on 10.27.2009.
Net revenues for the third quarter of 2009 were $773.1 million,
compared to $769.2 million in the third quarter of 2008. Net
income for the quarter was $34.2 million compared to net income
of $51.2 million in 2008. "Results of operations for
the periods presented are not comparable to prior periods
as the three months ended September 30, 2009 includes Encore
at Wynn Las Vegas, which opened on December 22, 2008. The
prior year quarter includes only Wynn Las Vegas."
Total cash balances on September
30, 2009 were $1.3 billion. Total debt outstanding at the
end of the quarter was $4.2 billion, including approximately
$2.7 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $1.5 billion of Wynn
Macau debt. In October 2009, Wynn Macau Limited, a newly formed
and indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Wynn Resorts and the
developer, owner, and operator of Wynn Macau, completed an
initial public offering of 27.7% of its ordinary shares on
The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. Net proceeds to the
Company as a result of this transaction were approximately
$1.8 billion. Total cash, after the Wynn Macau, Limited IPO
and certain debt transactions mentioned in the earnings press
release, was $3.1 billion and total debt outstanding was $4.1
billion, including approximately $2.6 billion of Wynn Las
Vegas debt and $1.5 billion of Wynn Macau debt.
|
|
Yahoo
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$15.00
|
$16.14
|
$18.02
$9.42
|
+7%
|
|
Read the "AOL:
From LOL to OMG"
article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card
on Microsoft from December 2009.
Revenue is off 12%. Price to earnings
ratio is still the highest in the space, at 32 on 11.30.09.
|
Recently
Deleted in 2008/2009:
Fannie Mae
was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price
value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both
puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on
6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was
deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo
was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted
on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on
8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First
Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with
75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was
deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction).
Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on
10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells
Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again
on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in
just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09. First Solar was deleted
on 8.13.09 with 33% gains. KB Home with 74% gains and Toll Brothers
with 51% gains on 10.01.09.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com Calendar:
New
Year. New You. New Life. New Outlook. All because of the wisdom
and opportunities – many free – you’ll find in the Calendar Section.
The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences,
retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market
events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in!
We add online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they
are booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Women’s
Conference, Sydney, Australia
Wednesday-Friday,
January 6-8, 2010
Women’s
Education Worldwide 2010 Conference. Empowering Women: The Economic
Imperative.
Want
to Be a Bestselling Author?
Wednesday,
January 6th, 2010
9:00AM through 9:30AM
Join bestselling author Chellie Campbell in Natalie Pace’s BlogTalkRadio.com
show to discuss the business of books. Learn what publishers are
looking for and how to get the platform necessary to get a book
deal and create a blockbuster hit!
The
Hot Amazon Songstress
Wednesday,
January 13th, 2010
9:00AM through 9:30AM
Meet the cute Amazon songstress in the delightful Amazon Kindle
commercial. Discover how she wrote a song and shot a commercial
in a weekend that won the hearts of Amazon execs and customers alike!
Join actress/singer/songwriter Annie Little in Natalie Pace’s BlogTalkRadio.com
show.
Solar
Power Conference, Las Vegas, NV
Wednesday-Thursday, January 20-21, 2010
Driving the development
of large-scale solar power projects.
Tapping
Your Potential with Michael Bernard Beckwith
Friday,
January 22nd, 2010
7:30 p.m. PT
An Evening
with Michael Bernard Beckwith at the Agape International Spiritual
Center in Culver City, California. Tap into You: Discovering Your
Limitless Potential.
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday,
January 26th, 2010
8:00AM through 5:00PM
The Federal Reserve Board governors meet for two days (on the 26th
and 27th) to determine how to stimulate the American economy.
Clinton
Global Initiative University Conference,
Miami, FL
Friday,
April 16-18, 2010
This 3-day event is one where students work hand-in-hand on global
issues, and even get their hands dirty on a community service project.
Of course, doing this alongside Prez. Clinton and a few celebrity
friends, like Brad Pitt, doesn't hurt! You must apply with a proposal
to be accepted. Act fast!
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
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and does not operate or act as one.
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|
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