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Vol.7 Issue 1, January 1st, 2010
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"Beware that your Blue Chips aren't Bailouts, like AIG, GM, Citigroup and Bank of America are. Money is power. If you want to change the world, one of the easiest ways to do that is to invest your money in companies you actually like instead of blindly investing companies that are bankrupt and being bailed out with your pension, annuity, 401(k), IRA, taxpayer dollars, et al."

Natalie Pace, author of You Vs. Wall Street.


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How Cap & Trade Saved Ford From the Fate of GM and Chrysler.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes a Car Stock Report Card.

Click to access a side-by-side review of the numbers of Ford, Toyota and Honda motor companies in the 2010 Car Report Card.

Ford Fusion: 2010 Motortrend Car of the Year

2009 was a notable year – the year that two of the three top U.S. automakers declared bankruptcy. The untold story, however, was how Cap and Trade saved Ford from the fate of General Motors and Chrysler.

By 2009, all of the American auto manufacturers were in trouble. The main reason? The companies had been posting losses for years. They had been around for almost a century. They made promises to their employees that they were having trouble keeping. And the debt they were taking on to try and meet cash negative operations and their pension, labor and other post employment benefit obligations was drowning the corporations. General Motors had over $100 billion in debt when the company declared bankruptcy.

Ford Motor Company is in the same boat. According to the third quarter earnings report, which was filed with the SEC on November 6, 2009, the company had long-term debt of $25 billion, "other liabilities" of $22 billion and "Financial Services Debt" of $105.8 billion. That’s quite a hefty load for a company that lost $4 billion last year to carry.

Ford Motor Company is joining forces with two green energy companies, Xtreme Power of Austin, Texas and Clairvoyant Energy of Santa, California, to redevelop an abandoned Ford manufacturing plant into an energy park.

So, how did Ford keep from going belly up, like Chrysler and General Motors? Largely through vision, which translated into sales and (so far) sustainability. Ford was the first American auto manufacturer to promote fuel efficiency in a meaningful way, starting in 2002. The company was one of only 13 founding members of the Chicago Climate Exchange, making a commitment to voluntarily reduce green house gas emissions and to undergo third-party verification of GHG emissions data back in 2002. In May of 2008, Ford became the first automaker to join The Climate Registry (TCR), a non-profit organization established to measure and publicly report GHG emissions using a single reporting standard across industry sectors.

How did going green save Ford? Because Ford was the first U.S. automaker with the vision to create fuel-efficient vehicles that Americans want to drive. Regardless of how you weigh in on "Global Warming," oil prices are hot and volatile, which makes fuel efficiency the cool thing to do. Thus, Ford has been rewarded with sales and awards, in a world where GM’s Hummer went the way of the dinosaurs.

On November 17, 2009, The Ford Fusion was named Motor Trend Magazine’s Car of the Year! Sales of the 2010 Fusion are at an all-time high. The car is now among America’s Top 10 selling vehicles, and it is the No. 1 selling domestic car. To win the coveted Car of the Year award, the Ford Fusion outperformed the competition – including the BMW 7 Series and Mercedes-Benz E-Class sedan – in six new categories:  design achievement, engineering excellence, intended function, efficiency, safety and value. 

Ford sales in the 3rd quarter of 2009 were $27.8 billion, with net income of $997 million, compared to a loss of $161 million a year ago. General Motors lost $1.2 billion in the 3rd quarter of 2009. Chrysler is now a privately held LLC and is not releasing earnings reports to the public.

The head winds in auto manufacturing remain torrential, especially with the amount of debt, obligations, pensions and labor costs that still make it hard for auto manufacturers to settle their colossal debt. Even lean/green #1 auto manufacturer Toyota lost $4 billion in fiscal year 2009. The industry is not in favor and the challenges are mighty. But there is a clear leader in the group to keep your eye on – Ford – once the economy is on more stable footing. Click to access a side-by-side review of the numbers of Ford, Toyota and Honda motor companies in the 2010 Car Report Card.

I added Ford Motor Company to the Stocks to Watch List in my Hot News on Cool Stocks article today.

Full Disclosure: I do not own positions in any of the car manufacturers listed in this article.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace! Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace, YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Crystal Ball 2010.

by Natalie Pace.

Conversation with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Dr. Gary Becker.

Dr. Becker has an incredible record for predicting when recessions will end. Has he got it right this time?

Below is a conversation I had in the University of Chicago office of Dr. Gary Becker, on November 13, 2009. It was a crisp, cool Friday the 13th, but, according to Dr. Becker, the bad luck may be behind us. Dr. Becker believes we’ve finished the recession, that the Chinese are more vulnerable than the U.S. in terms of Treasury Bills and that one simple trick would do far more to promote robust recovery than the Stimulus Package.

 

Natalie Pace: How much faith do you have in this recovery?

Gary Becker: I think we’ve finished the recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.org) hasn’t spoken yet, but I believe it was over in the 3rd quarter.

I don’t see anyone dancing in the streets yet…

The great worry is, "Will the recovery be slow or fast?" I don’t think it’s going to be as slow as the consensus opinion is. I look at productivity at 9.5% increase in the 3rd quarter, and about 7% in the second quarter. Productivity advance is really the driver of the economy. Even though unemployment is expected to remain elevated in the short run. In the longer run, higher productivity goes hand in hand with greater employment. The recovery will not be a V shape, rising rapidly, but I think it will be a decent recovery.

The Bailouts started with Bush – with the handouts to AIG, GM and others -- not Obama, so my next comments are not Obama Bashing. But this current climate does not feel like capitalism. Unions received such a big piece of Chrysler and bondholders were shafted. Corporations that cannot survive in the free market were given a blank check, with no rules or regulations on how the funds are to be used… How do you feel about all of this? How concerned should we be?

I would not have bailed out General Motors and Chrysler. I would have let them go into bankruptcy. They were bailed out because of the unions. The unions were a strong supporter of Obama. They got a better deal than they would have gotten in the bankruptcy court.

Granted these are challenging times requiring extraordinary actions, but what other mistakes are being made by the U.S. Administration and Congress?

I would not have a Pay Czar controlling pay. And I would try to get out as quickly as possible. AIG and the automobile companies and the banks should repay.

What we’re left with now is consolidation into a few, mighty bailed out banks. Meanwhile homeowners and small business owners are in trouble, and don’t understand the logic of their home being returned to a bailed out bank that lured them into the refinance in the first place. Was this truly the only option and what kind of price will Americans pay for this down the road?

A lot of the help in the financial sector was important in preventing a more serious recession. It wasn’t an event we were prepared for, so naturally a lot of mistakes were made. That was not desirable. Some of it may have been inevitable, but we should try to get rid of government ownership of these corporations as quickly as possible.

Listening to Bernanke, it sounds like he’s not about to allow any other big corporations to fail… In a town hall meeting on July 26, 2009, Bernanke said, "From 1929 to 1931, it was a normal recession. Then, in 1931, a huge bank in the middle of Central Europe collapsed and that created a global financial crisis which then made the recession into the Great Depression."

I’d be careful about doing that. If you look at the Great Depression, it’s true that things got worse after the first two years. But things were worse during the first two years than this recession has been, and then they got terrible. I think it would be a mistake to say that no big banks can fail. We’re getting into a position where we can allow even some larger banks to fail. I think banks are generally in better shape than they were before, although we’re going to have some failures. I don’t know which of the big banks are the most vulnerable. I’m not following it that closely. But I don’t think we want to give the message that we’re not going to let big banks fail. We give false messages to the market.

That lousy companies can run their business into the ground and we’ll still bail them out?

That’s not a good message to give… You’re right about that. It’s not Capitalism.

With regard to the positive spikes in productivity, your Blog partner Richard Posner argues that corporations are fudging the productivity with lower quality goods and services, slower payment of bills, etc. So, he makes a distinction between technological, innovation-based productivity and what we’re seeing today.

I think he’s wrong on that because if you look at European productivity, that has gone down. They have the same incentive to fudge the numbers – to pay bills slowly and put out lower quality goods and services, but European productivity has been negative in the last two quarters. There is something real going on here. Usually in recessions, productivity falls, as is happening in Europe.

Elizabeth Warren, the Chairman of the TARP Oversight Committee, has said that earnings are unreliable these days. Pension and OPEB contributions were given a vacation last year by Bush, and who knows if that mandate will be lifted again for 2010. Banks have literally billions in unreported losses from real estate that they don’t have to mark to market…

I really don’t know how accurate the earnings reports are. I will only say the following: Companies are doing a lot better than they were a year ago. It’s certainly a true direction. There’s no doubt that Goldman Sachs made a lot of money. There’s also no doubt that Wal-Mart is doing quite well. Whether the profit numbers are accurately reflecting how much better, I don’t follow the numbers well enough to know. But I don’t think it’s fake to say that we’re in a recovery.

The last GDP report was the first positive report in two years, but half of the growth was fueled by the Cash For Clunkers program – essentially government stimulus spending.

Maybe it would have been half the growth without the Cash For Clunkers Program, but still that’s a positive number.

In the past GDP growth has relied upon capital and consumer spending, but that doesn’t look like it’s coming back soon in this "Jobless Recovery."

What will drive the economy out of the recession?

I’d have the government send out a stimulus package, cut taxes on corporate investments and things of that type. That’s an important driver of the economy. Consumers are spending more now than they were a year ago, but they’re still cautious and trying to rebuild their portfolio. I’m also looking forward to the world market. Asia is improving at a rapid rate. Brazil is improving at a rapid rate. Germany and France are doing pretty well. That will help improve the U.S. economy.

The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that they’ll start raising the Fed Funds Rate as soon as they can, but that, economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

The Fed is going to be pressured from Washington not to tighten too much, so the economy goes forward. On the other hand, they want to tighten in order to prevent a more rapid rate of inflation. The Washington political party – whichever one – will be in favor of more inflation and not tightening, while the Feds should be thinking of less inflation and more tightening. How they work that out will determine whether or not inflation becomes a major problem down the road or not. I expect Washington to win out at least part of that battle.

So, how far down the road are we looking at?

It shouldn’t occur for a couple of more years. The immediate problem is to get a faster recovery.

 

Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.

To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his web site and blog. To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening the U.S. economy, check out the 2009 Milken Global Economic Conference web page. Dr. Gary Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference every year since it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes in April 2009.

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace! Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace, YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.


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Predictions for 2010: Will the U.S. Economy Be In the Money or In the Toilet?

by Staff.

VIPs, CEOs and Economists Make Their Predictions.

Will Americans be rolling in the dough, dancing in the streets, plugging away, moving parents and college students under one roof to make ends meet or immigrating to another land of opportunity? Below find the predictions of leading economists, CEOs and VIPs.

Happy Days are Here Again!
1. Warren Buffett. Buffett has made a $34 billion bet on the economy doing well, in his purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation. In a Berkshire Hathaway press release dated November 3, 2009, regarding his acquisition, Buffett wrote, "America must grow and prosper for railroads to do well. Berkshire’s $34 billion investment in BNSF is a huge bet on that company, CEO Matt Rose and his team, and the railroad industry. Most important of all, however, it’s an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States. I love these bets."

But Buffett is pretty much the Lone Ranger in this category of unbridled optimism…

Recovery – Better Than Expected
1. Dr. Gary Becker: "I think we’ve finished the recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.org) hasn’t spoken yet, but I believe it was over in the 3rd quarter… The great worry is, "Will the recovery be slow or fast?" I don’t think it’s going to be as slow as the consensus opinion is… The recovery will not be a V shape, rising rapidly, but I think it will be a decent recovery."

Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.

2. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein speaking on CNNMoney on October 16, 2009: "I believe we have had the turn. It’s hard to be sure. You just don’t know about these things. If I had to guess, I think we’ve already started to go up, but it doesn’t mean that people will feel good about it. Sentiment will lag… because the recovery is going to be uneven. Certain industries have to shrink. Other industries have to go and the people caught in the middle have to be retrained and it might be different people who get those jobs."

3. Liz Ann Sonders, SVP & Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., wrote in an email to me, “I think the consensus is underestimating the "coiled spring" aspect of this economic recovery, and although it's off to a slow start, I would expect several quarters of better-than-expected GDP. The drivers are likely to be strong exports, inventory replenishment and business capital spending. Public sector debt will remain the primary pessimistic overhang in what should otherwise be a more robust recovery than most expect.”

The next group is concerned about risk factors, even though they believe that technically the U.S. economy has started to recover.

Fragile Recovery – More Work to Be Done
1. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C. on December 3, 2009 testified, "Over the past two years, our nation, indeed the world, has endured the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, a crisis which in turn triggered a sharp contraction in global economic activity. Today, most indicators suggest that financial markets are stabilizing and that the economy is emerging from the recession. Yet our task is far from complete. Far too many Americans are without jobs, and unemployment could remain high for some time even if, as we anticipate, moderate economic growth continues."

2. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy F. Geithner. In written Testimony before the Congressional Oversight Panel on December 10, 2009: "The financial and economic recovery still faces significant headwinds.  Unemployment remains very high, along with foreclosure and delinquency rates, and housing markets are still overwhelmingly dependent on government support… Commercial real estate losses weigh heavily on many small banks… These conditions place enormous pressure on American families, homeowners, and small businesses… In conclusion, I can report significant improvements in our financial markets and economy, as well as the positive financial results of our TARP programs.  However, our job is far from finished.  History suggests that exiting too soon from policies designed to contain a financial crisis can significantly prolong an economic downturn."

3. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair at the Institute of International Bankers Conference; New York, NY on November 10, 2009: "This year alone, the FDIC has resolved 120 institutions that held total deposits of $112 billion, almost all of which will turn out to be fully insured… We've had too many years of unfettered risk-taking, and too many years of government subsidized risk. It's time we changed the rules of the game. It's time we closed the book on the doctrine of too big to fail. Only by instituting a credible resolution process and removing the existing incentives for size and complexity can we limit systemic risk, and the long-term competitive advantages and public subsidy it confers on the largest institutions."

4. Dr. Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist of the World Bank, in an interview with China Publishing Today, published on November 30, 2009, is quoted as saying, "There are signs of global economic recovery, but the foundation is still shaky. Recovery mainly came from two sides: the first is financial stimulus by governments, and the second is re-stocking by the corporate sector after a de-stocking. However, private consumption and private investment have yet to fully recover, so we say the recovery is not solid. I believe we should continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and increase private investment to ensure a sustainable recovery."

5. Ethan Harris, Chief Economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, speaking on PBS on December 14, 2009: "We shouldn't be surprised at the recovery starting out slow. By the end of 2010, I think we'll be in better shape… There are two concerns... If oil were to go back and revisit those $150 price levels, that would be quite negative for the economy. The other would be that government backs off from this super stimulus. We need a lot of help in the next year. We can't really have growth without strong stimulus. So we need to continue monetary medicine and a fiscal therapy."

There are those who have a more pessimistic view of the economy, and believe that real recovery happens after 2010…

The Great "Recession" and Stagnation Continues…
1.
Judge Richard Posner in his Becker-Posner blog entry, August 2009: "A recession or depression ends, in my view, when output rejoins the GDP trend line, that is, when it reaches the level it would have reached had the economy grown at its average rate of growth, rather than being depressed. At the moment, as I point out in my Atlantic blog entry of August 1, output is 7.2 percent below the trend line, which suggests that the economy will remain depressed for at least the next two years."

Judge Richard A. Posner was appointed in 1981 as a judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, where he currently presides. He was the chief judge of the court from 1993 to 2000.

2. Federal Open Market Committee issued a Press Statement on December 16, 2009 writing, "Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability." The FOMC believes that "economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

If you were to divide these camps into Wall Street and Main Street, you’d have almost consensus opinion. Wall Street, due to federal stimulus and the recovery of other countries in the world, should grow and that growth might even be better than expected, especially if oil doesn’t spike, taxes are cut and federal stimulus remains robust. If so, the stock market in 2010, contrary to what usually happens in the years after a presidential election, may post greater gains than 2009. Main Street, on the other hand, will lag the recovery, with higher unemployment and the need for retraining labor to compete in ever-increasingly complicated, high-performance, high-brain power jobs. Even mechanics are computer operators these days!

There are a lot of “ifs” in that paragraph, which is why the exerts have plenty of caveats in their predictions. Therefore, caution is still the rule of the day. I would add that investors should be alerted to the potential change and re-reinforcement of accounting rules, which were suspended in 2008 and 2009. Once corporations have to start marking their assets to market, paying into the pension and other post employment benefits funds and accounting for bad debt and investments, corporate earnings could look ugly again. To avoid panicking after the fact, have a good plan that works in bull and bear markets – just in case.


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Should I Give My Home Back to the Bank?

Readers Ask Natalie Pace for Help.

Dear Natalie:

My husband was just given an early retirement. We’re in a big house and we’re going to downsize to reduce costs. My question is this. If, after I buy my new house, I have trouble selling the big, old house, should I just let it foreclose?

Signed: Feel Like Shafting the Bailed Out Bank

Dear Shaft Happy:

Bankruptcy, foreclosure and skipping out on obligations are all last resorts to be employed only when there are no other options, and then, only with sound legal counsel. There are many other far more positive potential outcomes where everyone wins, and I encourage you to focus your energy on making those a reality. Instead of thinking of early retirement as the beginning of the end of everything, why not think of it as the beginning of a whole new life and lifestyle?

For instance, with interest rates at a 40-year low, if you have a fixed rate on your old place, you might be in a position to rent it to cover your costs. Since real estate returns over 6% return on investment annually, even if property values continue to decrease next year, chances are reasonably good that you make a reasonable profit in 5-10 years, especially if the cost to carry is paying for itself. Additionally, if you’re close to paying off the loan altogether, and you can have a renter cover your costs plus a little profit, that’s an excellent strategy that increases your net asset value significantly, rather than ruining your credit. (Excellent credit will be VERY valuable when interest rates start to rise again.)

It’s understandable that you are thinking worst-case scenario, since the thought of early retirement is so stressful. But many people go on to utilize all that free time to become excellent ROI earners (Return on Investment) – earning far more than they ever made punching a clock. (Many professionals ignore their investments and, thus, are vulnerable to the kind of shocks that happened in real estate and stocks in 2008.)

As just one example, look at the chart below. Even with the horrific downturn in 2008, small cap stocks still earned over 10% every year over the last forty years. Investing is the best pathway to the life of your dreams – far more powerful than an annual salary. If you start investing 10 percent when you are eighteen, you’d be a millionaire before you were fifty—thanks to the power of compounding and returns—even if you are only making $14 an hour and never got a raise. If you were just saving – or earning – that money, you never achieve financial freedom.

Investing Vs. Savings Chart

Do not buy into the media frenzy of the bailed out economy and Wall Street corruption. There are many people who have earned 10% annualized gains over the last decade utilizing easy as pie chart strategies and annual rebalancing. And the majority of companies on Wall Street are making products, goods and services that make our world a better place. It’s your job now to empower yourself with financial wisdom, and it begins with focusing on earning Return On Investment on your assets – not giving them back to the bank. As you gain financial wisdom, you will learn how to:

* Throw away less money on medical insurance (putting more in your nest egg)
* Earn a higher return on your stocks, while always keeping the right amount safe
* Become the architect of your dream vision
* Hire the perfect contractor (Certified Financial Planner) to implement your goals

It’s You Vs. Wall Street. Win!

If you are a distressed homeowner, you need more information on short sales, loan modifications and foreclosure before you act. These are not sure shot Get out of Debt Free Cards. Listen back to my BlogTalkRadio.com show with real estate consultant, Steve Dietrich. Unfortunately, there are many traps in the process that can rob you of your home, your income and/or credit rating for many years to come. Get the information and resources you need before you make any move.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace! Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace, YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

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Smart Bond Investing.

Interest Rate Risk. By FINRA.org.

Remember the cardinal rule of bonds: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise, and when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Interest rate risk is the risk that changes in interest rates in the U.S. or the world may reduce (or increase) the market value of a bond you hold. Interest rate risk—also referred to as market risk—increases the longer you hold a bond.

Let's look at the risks inherent in rising interest rates.
If you bought a 10-year, $1,000 bond today at a coupon rate of 4 percent, and interest rates rise to 6 percent, two things can happen.

Say you need to sell your 4 percent bond prior to maturity. In doing so, you must compete with newer bonds carrying higher coupon rates. These higher coupon rate bonds decrease the appetite for older bonds that pay lower interest. This decreased demand depresses the price of older bonds in the secondary market, which would translate into you receiving a lower price for your bond if you need to sell it. In fact, you may have to sell your bond for less than you paid for it. For this reason, interest rate risk is also referred to as market risk.

Rising interest rates also make new bonds more attractive (because they earn a higher coupon rate). This results in what's known as opportunity risk—the risk that a better opportunity will come around that you may be unable to act upon. The longer the term of your bond, the greater the chance that a more attractive investment opportunity will become available, or that any number of other factors may occur that negatively impact your investment. This also is referred to as holding period risk—the risk that not only a better opportunity might be missed, but that something may happen during the time you hold a bond to negatively affect your investment.

Bond fund managers face the same risks as individual bondholders. When interest rates rise—especially when they go up sharply in a short period of time—the value of the fund's existing bonds drops, which can put a drag on overall fund performance.

For more important information on Smart Bond Investing, go to the FINRA.ORG website.

 

About FINRA:
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately 643,000 registered securities representatives.

FINRA believes investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the media and public forums, we help investors build their financial knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.

Sign up to receive FINRA content and Investor Alerts at FINRA.ORG.


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Want to Be a Bestselling Author?

by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit.

 

"Chellie, you’re a successful published author – can I take you to lunch and pick your brain about the book business and how to get my book published?"

I can’t tell you how many requests like that I have had since The Wealthy Spirit and Zero to Zillionaire were released in 2002 and 2006, respectively. After awhile, I was getting too fat from all that lunching out, and wrote it all up in a book publishing report (available free to all Dolphin Club members). Here are some interesting book industry statistics from that report:

1. 2% of the 200,000 books published each year become bestsellers.
2. 84% of the bestsellers are published by the 5 largest New York publishers.
3. 2 out of 10 books published make a profit for the publisher.
4. In 2004, 950,000 titles out of the 1.2 million tracked by Nielsen Bookscan sold fewer than 99 copies. Another 200,000 sold fewer than 1,000 copies.
5. Only 25,000 books sold more than 5,000 copies.
6. The average book in America sells about 500 copies.
7. Only 10 books sold more than a million copies in 2004.
8. Fewer than 500 books sold more than 100,000 copies in 2004.
9. The magic number for a book to be considered successful is 10,000. When The Wealthy Spirit reached 12,000 books sold, my editor called me and said, "We’re ready for your next book!" And so I got the contract to write Zero to Zillionaire. The Wealthy Spirit has now sold nearly 20,000 copies and Zero to Zillionaire is approaching the magic number of 10,000 copies sold.

The good news is you don’t have to have a blockbuster like The Da Vinci Code in order to be successful with your books. You only have to sell 5,000 to be in the top 2% of bestselling books. That looks a lot more doable than selling a million, doesn’t it?

Royalties on books usually start at 10% - and unless you have a major publisher, they are now based on wholesale price and not retail, and the reserve against returns is 15-25%. So the odds on making your fortune from a book alone are slim.  

Non-fiction books are like business cards. They are my best marketing pieces, help me spread the word about my seminars and professional speaking, and give me oodles of credibility so I can charge good fees for my work. Many times people have signed up for my workshops just because they were fans of my books.  They are one of my "multiple streams of income" and I have ideas for more books to come!  

Non-fiction book sales are all about PLATFORM. That means, how many people know who you are and will buy your book? That's why you see so many celebrity books - they have huge platforms and so will sell many more books than an unknown author. That is why Jessica Seinfeld got a book deal for her cookbook when the unknown author who pitched basically the same book six months prior to her didn't get a deal.

Books are widgets and publishers are manufacturers and their number one goal is to sell a lot of widgets. Never forget that!  Here's some insider info: I was a speaker at a conference in Mexico in October, along with Marci Shimoff, author of 6 Chicken Soup for the Soul books. She is a part of a mastermind group of best-selling speaker-authors that do mailings for each other – you’ve seen the "Be a Bestseller on Amazon" promotions will all the free goodies from other self-help authors, yes? Marci’s announcement about her new book Happy for No Reason, which is a fabulous book, went out to 5 million people! That's what I mean by platform, and why she got a big deal with a major publisher.

But look, she started small, too. She pitched Chicken Soup for the Woman's Soul to Jack Canfield when there wasn't any idea for a series of "Chicken Soup" books – there was only the one book. But she saw a sequel in meditation and called Jack and pitched her idea. Then she built her reputation by speaking and writing more of those titles and I'm guessing not much money in the beginning. Now she commands big speaking fees and gets big advances for her books.  

The book business is like every business. People who have made it usually built their brand and their business slowly over time and came into the big money later, after years of hard work. Read the biographies of any famous person and you'll find that same story over and over. Faith Hill became famous with her fourth album. Bon Jovi sold his 50th song demo, and the band didn't make any money until their 3rd album.

That's why you have to love your work – your goals have to be so juicy that it’s fun just to work towards them! Because that's all that will sustain you through the failures along the road to success. Look at everything as fun and an adventure along the way and you'll be happy and successful every day of your life.

And that’s my secret of happiness.

So: Think you’re ready to make the leap to bestselling book author? Chellie Campbell will be the guest on Natalie Pace’s BlogTalkRadio show on Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:00 a.m. PT. Go to BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace to become a friend and to get the call-in information. You will be able to chat live with Chellie on the air and ask any question you desire!

Chellie Campbell:
Professional Speaker and Author of The Wealthy Spirit and Zero to Zillionaire has been teaching Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops since 1990. The Wealthy Spirit was a book-of-the-week on the Doctor Laura Schlesinger radio show and a GlobalNet book-of-the-month selection. She has been quoted in Good Housekeeping, Lifetime, Woman's World, and Essence, and more than 30 popular books.

If you are stuck in a rut in your business or life and/or having too much "month at the end of your money," Chellie’s Financial Stress Reduction® workshop might be just what you need to get things on the right track. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine and workshop at www.chellie.com.


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Vision.

by Gary Kobat.

Gary Kobat Friend and Client Geoffrey Erickson wins the Ogden Utah Marathon.

Creating vision is one of the most vitally active processes in which a person can engage. Like a trail guide, vision leads us on a path.

Similar to a corporate manifesto, a personal vision is one of the most essential tools for manifesting what we want. The purpose of having vision is to get us into conscious creating, changing our thoughts, and thereby changing our lives.

When we create vision, our lives make dramatic shifts. Vision does not teach, it points, allowing us to live life with a particular direction, concentration of mind, a calmness and simplicity that attracts the experience of peace, and through that experience, happiness.

With vision, decisions become easier, guiding us to what is true: to the way of our life, cutting away all that is false. Clear vision gives us a reason for being, a pathway of purpose that can evaluate, energize, initiate, and refine all activities, creating responsibility, while building self-esteem.

The progress we make on our path, like an athlete, will be quick or slow, according to our awareness. When we embrace our awareness, we live our lives to their fullest extent: to be happy.

Vision is really about happiness. The inevitable result: conscious alignment with happiness; the kind of happiness that endures, sees us through every difficulty, every loss, every hardship, and brightens even our best days.

When living in alignment with our loves, whether in business, athletics, or life, our vision will find us. In fact, it's on its way, identifying more of life's calling. But we must be patient, be willing to "not know" for a short time, maintaining an open and mindful presence. Then one day we will hear a voice saying, "This is the path."

With vision, the possibilities are infinite.

 

About Gary Kobat:
Gary is the tough-love Coach, no-nonsense Trainer, and World-Class Athlete whose energy for life has inspired, educated, and empowered lasting personal and professional change for thousands. He believes that we can re-invent ourselves by living life without-limits; understanding that the universe is full of infinite possibilities; that everything we need is inside: right here & right now; and by never, ever, ever giving-up.

Gary's client list includes the who's who in film, business, and sport. For the past decade he has quietly mentored the spirituality, health, and longevity of Jim Carrey, Will Ferrell, Mariska Hargitay, and countless others.

You can sign up for a free copy of Gary’s e-book at GaryKobat.com. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter for daily tweets of inspiration.


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Shopping for a Promotion – Literally.

by Natalie Pace, author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of The Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money on BlogTalkRadio.com.

Natalie Pace. Photo by Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. © 2008.

Every job, promotion and raise I ever got hinged on one critical heel—dressing the part. Have you ever heard of anyone in a t-shirt and thongs (the shoes, not the underwear) getting an executive level position (unless they owned the company)? How would you feel if your attorney showed up to court in a Hawaiian shirt or your gardener came to work in a tuxedo?

Every job has its standard dress code, and dressing for success is a subtle, but important statement that you embody the career you’re aiming for. And that message has to start BEFORE you ask for the job, not after. Unfortunately, you can’t afford to rationalize that you’ll buy the new suit AFTER you get the job and have the extra money to afford it. If you don’t invest in the duds first, your big shot will be a blank.

The reason that I say to start walking the talk now, is that it’s not just in the boss’ office where that suit can be an advantage. Great-looking clothes (and every fashionista knows that fabric DOES matter) can provide a conversation starter for strangers. I met one of my business advisors at a conference because he and I were standing in the valet queue, waiting for our respective cars, wearing similar his and her pin-stripe suits, crafted by the same designer. (Yes, I bought mine on sale, which is something anyone can do easily in 2009.) That suit sparked a business relationship and Rolodex sharing that launched my company. That’s a million dollar return on a thousand dollar investment. (Silk blouses aren’t cheap, ya’all.)

Still afraid to pony up the dough before you win the job? Worried about how you’ll pay off the credit card bill? Unfortunately, it’s a Catch 22 situation. If you don’t make the investment, you’re unlikely to get the job. Which strategy is more likely to succeed? Walking into your boss’ office wearing what you always wear or having the boss walk by your desk and see you looking sharp and brand spanking new, like s/he’d better promote you before one of her clients snatches you up?

Last week, I came across an executive assistant wearing a tailored suit. The first thing I thought was, "Wow! If her work ethic, her education and her intelligence warrant a raise and promotion, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her in her own office next time I visit." (And if her education and industry acumen don’t measure up, then her next shopping spree should be for college classes and/or professional development!) I put her name on my short list of people I would approach when/if my company was hiring.

Before you trip on over to the designer outlet mall, measure up your education. If you’ve been hitting your head on the glass ceiling for a while, make sure that you’ve got the degree you need for the job. Did you know that women with a masters or PhD. earn five times (or more) those with only a high school diploma? Education is the single-most highly correlated factor with income. Odds are against you getting a great job without a degree, no matter what you’re wearing.

So take a moment to envision that dream-come-true job and you dancing in those ‘to-die-for’ shoes. Be willing to invest in your education and an appropriate wardrobe, to jump a rung or two up the ladder!

And if you’re really happy where you are, don’t sweat it. Climbing the corporate ladder has no bearing on what kind of person you are anyway. In his book, Giving, President Clinton describes a laundress who saved up a quarter of a million dollars for charity. What a rich life she led! Just be the best ever you, and know that woman can live the life of her dreams no matter what she’s wearing (even naked!).

Finally, get the most bang for your buck. January can be a great time for after Christmas sales! Splurging (within reason) can be the best thing you do for your career, and paying a little more for a great fabric and a great cut can pay off for years because classic cuts don’t go out of fashion, like the latest trend does. Polyesters, off-the-rack suits and outrageous fashion statements may cost less, but they also look cheaper and wear out in just one season. Whereas a great suit can become this year’s hip, new look with a new hemline, blouse and some accessories!

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace! Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace, YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

 


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Time to Thrive.

by Natalie Pace.

How to Launch Out of the Rut of Basic Needs and Survival and into the Life of Your Dreams.

"The more you praise and celebrate your life, the more there is in life to celebrate."—Oprah Winfrey

Natalie Pace. Photo by: Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. © 2008. Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbell.

Each year, it’s a good idea to revision your life. This is different than making New Year’s Resolutions (that you rarely keep). This is a complete redraft of the blueprint you’re operating from. Are you having enough fun? (This means free endorphins, which promote health, and health is wealth!) Are you investing right? Giving to charity? Investing in education (which is the highest correlating factor with income)? Or are you trying to squeeze all of your living and fun into the dregs of your budget each month? Are you drowning in basic needs and survival? Below is an exercise to push the reset button on the lifestyle you’ve settled for and launch the life of your dreams.

The Billionaire Game
How would you live if you had all of the money in the world?

In order to really shake out the old and invite in the new way of thinking about life, I want you to envision the life you would enjoy if you were a millionaire (perhaps you are), and then if you were a multimillionaire, and then as a billionaire. You’ll be following a carefully laid out Thrive Budget, but you will be spending more and more money in each category, until you are spending just like a billionaire.

It’s just a game, but watch what issues come up for you.

Which specific organizations are your charitable donations going to go? Which companies are you buying in your stock portfolio? What kind of housing are you building and moving into—a green, solar energy-efficient house? Will you buy a bike to save on gasoline costs? Will you manage your own stocks and bonds or hire a money manager? Where will you go on vacation this year? Will you take your family and friends with you?

The first column is for your initial year, starting now, but the second column is what you’d be spending if you earned $1.2 million annually (not your spouse—this is your money). For some of you, this is Fantasyland—something to aspire to—so knock down your walls and fences and go for it. This is time for outrageous, vivid, detailed, "dream come true" planning. It is the same you—but with a much bigger monthly salary!

The other columns are designed to get you thinking wayyyyy beyond your current income and lifestyle. Imagine you’re earning a take-home salary of $100 million per month. How will you invest that? Where will you donate ten million dollars this month? What kind of immediate pleasure can you have with that kind of money? What kind of "long-term fun" splurge will you buy with $120 million (12 months times $10 million per month)?

When you get to the basic needs in the final billionaire category, remember that you’re spending 10 percent on charity and 10 percent on education, both of which could be helping you preserve your billionaire status, since your foundations should provide tax benefits.

Play the Billionaire Game
The Thrive Budget (aka Double Your Fun Budget)
The basic breakdown of what I call a "Double Your Fun" budget is 50 percent to Thrive and 50 percent to Survive:

1. 10 percent to investing
2. 10 percent to charity
3. 10 percent to education
4. 20 percent spent on fun. (Half on immediate fun, like movies, fashion and dinners out, the other half on something you’ll have to save up for, like vacations, Jacuzzis, boats, etc.)
5. 50 percent for all your basic needs (including taxes, housing, food, clothing, etc.)

What came up for you? Did you have difficulty spending $10 million on charity? Or on pleasure? Did you actually curse me when it came to some of these categories, as if it were ridiculous to imagine spending such an outlandish amount of money?

Ahhhh…But this is the life of a billionaire. It’s not just about having a beautiful family, expensive cars, magnificent jewelry and a huge home that magically cleans itself. There is a tremendous amount of responsibility involved. In fact, security may be a part of your basic needs. There will be a professional money manager handling your investments. You’ll have a staff to maintain, a business to run and employees to provide for. When you become a billionaire, it is more like being royalty. You have to imagine yourself at the center of a large estate, with people on your payroll, with investments and orchards to fertilize, harvest and maintain. When you think of education, you’ll be considering the benefits to the community of having neighbors and employees with a higher skill set, not just your own increased brain power. You cannot drive your Hummer through a war zone to your gated estate – for long. (History proves me right on this one.)

Some people find it very easy to spend $120 million on long-term fun (your own island or a theme park, ala Walt Disney’s Disneyland). Others wouldn’t dream of that kind of narcissism and could only imagine a long-term fun budget of $120 million each year that benefited the rest of humanity (launching a Shakespeare in the Park series all across the Southwest, sponsoring summer camps for underprivileged youth, putting playgrounds into underfunded urban elementary schools.).

What many people come to realize through this exercise is that money is not happiness. Money becomes a responsibility. It doesn’t matter how big and beautiful your home is, if the neighborhood outside is at war, and, conversely, if there are big beautiful parks in the city, like Central Park in Manhattan, people can live in smaller spaces and still feel happy. Most people can’t come close to spending $100 million a month on pleasure…until they include other people. And then, magically, it becomes easy.

A side benefit of this exercise is that it shatters old (and largely untrue) myths about being a wealthy business owner. When you see money as abundance—like a farmer sharing more fruit than s/he can eat with her neighbors—you can love the idea of becoming rich enough to be abundant and prosperous and sharing the fruit of your yield. You have a plan that is well balanced, which keeps you honest and humble without being self-sacrificing. Americans as individuals are the most giving humans on the planet. Many of us are no longer stuck in survival mode and are able to share our abundance with other humans around the globe. These are the gifts of prosperity—a world that works for all.

But the truly most important aspect of this exercise is that you uncover the true you—who you would be and how you would act if you had all of the money in the world. There is no reason why you can’t start activating that vision now. If you hate war, then refuse to invest in mutual funds that invest in defense companies. If you hate cigarettes and cancer, stop investing in Altria (which is Philip Morris’s tobacco company). Put your money where your heart is and watch the world become more beautiful as a result.

In fact:
MAKE A COMMITMENT Write down three things you can do right here and now to start walking the golden brick road to the life of your dreams.

1. ______________________________________
2. ______________________________________
3. ______________________________________

The Bottom Line
We live in a time when single mums can be richer than queens and an immigrant can be one of the richest people in America, like Sergey Brin, the cofounder of Google. J. K. Rowling was able to dream up an entire universe around Hogwarts, complete with Quiddich and He Who Must Not Be Named. She is now richer than the Queen of England. Your dream life should be as rich.

Three Takeaway Tips

  1. How would you live if you had all of the money in the world? You can unlock that passion, have that vision for yourself and start walking that path right here and now.
  2. The road to prosperity means that you are focused on thriving—on your investments (the first check you write), your charities (which lead you to a new network of friends), your education (which increases your income) and your fun (health is wealth).
  3. Basic needs, including housing, car, gas, insurance, taxes, debt repayment, credit card bills, etc. should not exceed 50 percent of your income. Oftentimes, writing checks for education and investments means you write a smaller check to the IRS. Not more money, just a different allocation, and a different way of thinking.

This is an excerpt, chapter 8, of You Vs. Wall Street – a great New Year/New You gift at just $11 that can be delivered right to their door!

You vs. Wall Street "provides almost fool proof methods for growing wealth for the long haul," according to Success Magazine. Readers call You Vs. Wall Street a "must-read financial bible," and "just what some readers need to find themselves exponentially richer in the coming years." You vs. Wall Street teaches you how to win on Wall Street in any market—bull or bear. Now is the time to choose wisdom over blind faith, to invest in winning companies and to whistle all the way to your local bailed out bank.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Modern Girl’s Guide to Sex, Love and Money radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace! Follow her on Twitter.com/NataliePace, YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM and Facebook.com/NatalieWynnePace. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.



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The Fed Stands Pat.

by Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

December 16, 2009

Key points

  • The Fed keeps the fed funds target in a range of 0%-0.25%.
  • The accompanying statement noted the improving economy with still-subdued inflation.
  • Investors should begin anticipating a change in Fed policy, possibly by mid-2010.
 

There were few surprises in the statement accompanying the Federal Reserve's decision today to maintain the fed funds rate's target range of 0%-0.25%.

Specifically, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) repeated its pledge to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for "an extended period" while highlighting that the economy has strengthened further. Take a look at my previous Fed commentary, specifically on likely "exit strategies."

FOMC statement's particulars
Highlights from the FOMC's statement: "Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit."

Although the FOMC noted that deterioration in the labor market was "abating," it did go on to clarify that "businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment" and "remain reluctant to add to payrolls."

Further, low rates are contingent upon "low rates of resource utilization [employment], subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations." This last reference to inflation expectations was new last month.

There are several reasons why the market didn't expect much of a change in today's statement. Key among them is the upcoming Senate Banking Committee vote on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's nomination to be reappointed, which will be followed by the Senate's confirmation hearing.

Although we expect a confirmation, it will not be without some furor. It was unlikely the Fed would rock the boat with any major statement surprises in advance of those key events.

Inflation is still subdued
The Fed continues to express its view that inflation remains "subdued," notwithstanding this week's higher-than-forecasted Producer Price Index (PPI).

We are also in the camp that believes inflation is not set to accelerate meaningfully. I've written extensively about the very weak velocity of money (also called the money multiplier), which is the ratio of M2 money supply to the monetary base.

Simply put, it measures whether the liquidity that's been pumped into the financial system is getting into the real economy. Presently, it's not (in other words, velocity is quite weak).

Indeed, the PPI reported this week was up more than expected, but it was mainly due to a spike in energy prices that is already in the process of being reversed. Those price increases are being "trapped" in the early phases of the production cycle and aren't getting through to the consumer.

In fact, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), also reported this week, was tamer, with nearly all the small increases due to the spike in energy prices.

Both CPI and PPI remain well within the Fed's target range. The underlying trend in core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains down and will unlikely accelerate due to both the aforementioned weak velocity of money and the downward pressure on unit labor costs. Over one-third of the core CPI is driven by "owners' equivalent rent."

With the highest residential vacancy rate in more than 53 years and continued wage pressures on workers, rents are likely to remain depressed … and so will core CPI. This should help keep the Fed from having to get too aggressive as it looks to unwind its monetary stimulus later in 2010.

Job losses "abating"
The Fed's other mandate, aside from "price stability" (inflation), is "resource utilization" (employment). Given December's better-than-expected tally of job losses and a lower unemployment rate, the fed funds futures market now shows a greater-than-50% chance the Fed will start raising rates by mid-year 2010.

Historically, the Fed began to raise rates soon after the unemployment rate began to fall, but in today's environment of high absolute unemployment, not to mention record "underemployment," it is likely to be more patient than in the past.

Fed's asset purchases winding down
Finally, a comment on the Fed's asset purchase program. Today, the Fed said it will continue purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) totaling $1.25 trillion and about $175 billion of agency debt through the first quarter of 2010.

It reiterated that "most of the Federal Reserve's special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010." This is not a big deal given that balances are near zero anyway.

The statement further noted, "The Federal Reserve expects that amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back in early 2010."

There is some risk the Fed might have to extend its asset purchases if the recent decline in M2 money supply excluding Fed purchases continues. Essentially, the Fed has been buying to offset the contraction in the private sector's contribution to M2.

Be careful what you wish for
As we head into 2010, remember this: When rates begin to rise, they'll be coming from an emergency level of zero.

To those folks out there who fret the possibility of rate hikes before 2011, I say I would fret an economic set of circumstances that justifies 0% interest rates for that extended a period.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market cheer the beginning of a rate hike cycle. It would be suggestive of a more self-sustaining economic recovery and would certainly reward prudent savers, many of whom are retirees.

Important Disclosures
The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative (or "informational") purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.


Take Some Profits!

by Natalie Pace.

Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks List. NASDAQ was gold in 2009, but it’s important to polish up your profits before they lose their luster.

December 18, 2009

General Stock Market Performance

Wednesday, 1.3.2007

Monday, 1.2.2008

Monday, 1.2.2009

Monday, 12.18.09

Gains 3-yr, 2-yr & 1 yr.

Dow: 12,474.52

Dow: 13,044.12

Dow: 9,034.69

Dow: 10,301.69

-17% & -21% & +14%

Nasdaq: 2,423.16

Nasdaq: 2,609.63

Nasdaq: 1,632.21

Nasdaq: 2,203.34

-9% & -16% & +35%

S&P: 1,416.60

S&P: 1,447.16

S&P: 931.80

S&P: 1,099.58

-22% & -24% & +18%

Wall Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:

Index

Low

High

Dow Jones Industrial Average

6,547 (3.9.09)

14,164 (10.9.07)

NASDAQ Composite Index

1,114 (10.9.02)

5,060.34 (3.10.00)

Hot News on Cool Stocks Highlights!
516% gains on U.S. Gold!
NASDAQ Leads Market Returns, With 35% Gains -- compared to +30% rise in gold prices and +14% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
84% of the positions listed in 2008 & 2009 are in the money. Woo hoo!
TipsTraders ranked me #11, above over 830 A-list pundits, in 2008.

Market Update:
IMPORTANT SCAM ALERT FOR DISTRESSED HOME OWNERS:
"Foreclosure rescue scams that have taken up residence in nearly every community appear to be even more prevalent in stronger market areas where retaining title to a home is more economically feasible. One counselor in Los Angeles told me that as many as 80 percent of the homeowners she counseled had been victims of rescue scams." Federal Reserve Board Governor Elizabeth A. Duke.

Time to Take Your Profits
NASDAQ is up 35% on the year, performing better than gold, which has posted only 30% gains on the year. So, as you can see, there are different parts of the "stock market" that perform very differently. That is why the formula listed below has worked so beautifully for the last 12 years, through bull and bear markets – and also why it is critically important to rebalance your nest egg (and take your profits) at least once a year.

If you were using the old strategy of "buy and hold," you have lost money in the last three years and over the last decade.  If you were capturing your gains every year, this year you get 35% in NASDAQ, 30% in gold and 14% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Last year, you had most of your assets safe and weren’t hit with the colossal losses — up to almost half of your nest egg if you weren’t properly protected.  In 2007, you would have made almost 60 cents on the dollar in clean energy.  Each year, one or more of your hot industries and/or diversified size/style funds balloon and you capture the gains before it busts.  And you always have at least a percent equal to your age safe.

So, if you want to capture the stock market gains while you can, and make sure they never disappear down the Wall Street drain again, below are three easy ways you can do just that!

Easy Nest Egg Strategy that works in Bull and Bear Markets:

  1. Keep a percent equal to your age safe (not invested in stocks). (In recessions, overweight an additional 20% safe.)
  2. Diversify the remaining amount into 10 ETFs – 4 Hot industries and 6 by size/style
  3. Rebalance once or twice a year.

Learn the details of how to do this in my new paperback, You Vs. Wall Street. At just $11, it’s a great gift that can be delivered right to their door. Barnes and Noble is offering free delivery with an order of $25 or more.

Recently, I had a very engaging conversation with a bright entrepreneur who wondered if the whole subprime mess could have been prevented with greater regulation. My answer surprised her. I said, "The whole mess could have been prevented if we adhered to capitalism, instead of cronyism, and further, we can clean it up a lot faster today, if Main Street takes their rightful ownership of Wall Street."

What?

Yes, I mean to tell you that you indeed have far more power than you know, and if you exercise a little of it, you could get this country on track much faster than you will by picketing, joining a political party or whining. Vote with your dollars. Not just your consumer dollars, but also your investing dollars. Derail cronyism economics and distrust the current push toward socialism. Capitalism works – if society allows poorly run enterprises to bite the dust. Your role in this means that you can no longer be tricked into bailing out bad companies with your taxpayer dollars or your investment dollars. Learn to value your wisdom of the shopper, more than the slick advertisements you see on television. (Get this wisdom in my new paperback, You Vs. Wall Street.)

Why own a bailed out bank? (And yes, you very likely do own a bailed out bank in your 401(k), IRA, pension or annuity since over 10% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average – the most popular holdings on Wall Street -- was bailed out in 2008 and 2009.) You are probably invested in a company that would be bankrupt due to bad business practices, is now hording the cash it was bailed out with, and is foreclosing on the very clients it hard sold into buying property and/or refinancing in 2005. Why take ownership in that?

Let’s take a scenario where the bank is not bailed out – where capitalism, not cronyism, prevails.

A bank that majored in subprime loans gets into trouble. It has a high number of loans foreclosing. Now, if the bank was hard-selling "no doc liar’s loans" with no down payment to anyone with a pulse, chances are that corporation is going to bite the dust. If a candy manufacturer spiked its chocolate with arsenic and was killing its clients, that company wouldn’t last very long either. Companies that specialized in selling homes to people who could not afford them, just so that they could bag the sale and report increased earnings to stakeholders, to push up the price of their stock and make their executives (who started cashing out in the hundreds of millions) rich deserve to go down and will be the first to implode. They have ruined the lives and credit ratings of so many of their former clients, and the punishment for running a business poorly is the business fails.

Many of the "too big to fail" banks were diversified and had been in business long enough to stay afloat while they figured out how to deal with the real estate downturn – if they had began the assessment early enough. The first thing those banks would have to do is to figure out how to keep people making their mortgage payments. The majority of people in 2009 were giving back homes because they couldn’t make the payment, not because the value of the home was underwater. Therefore, since the majority of a loan is interest, not principal, the banks could have afforded to restructure the loan for a few years for their clients, instead of watching so many of the adjustable rate mortgages reset into astronomical payments that their clients didn’t have a prayer of paying. This would have kept people in their homes, kept revenue flowing into the bank and slowed the erosion of home values.

The bailouts hurt this process greatly because once the banks had the capital to shore up their reserves, they stopped working with their clients to restructure their loans. There was no incentive to do it! The banks had even less incentive to restructure their loans when the mark to market accounting rules were lifted. So, now, many banks have "rolling loans" on their books, where the homeowner has given them back the keys, but the bank has not yet declared the loss on their books.

What does this have to do with you?

If you took a look at the companies you own in your 401(k), IRA, pension and annuity and refused to own stock in companies that were bailed out, the market price of those companies would go down. There would be great incentive for a new bank with better business practices to come in and offer a better banking experience to its clients. Vote with your dollars and vote with your investments as well. For more information on how to invest in the companies that are making great products and services, read You Vs. Wall Street. At just $11, it makes a great gift that can be delivered right to their door. (Barnes and Noble is offering free shipping with orders of $25 or more.) To avoid investing in companies that you hate, read my article, "Don’t Invest in Things You Hate," from the December 2009 ezine.

Different Styles for Dealing with the Great Recession

Capitalism

Cronyism

Socialism

Subprime Crisis

No bailout. Banks figure out how to rewrite homeowner loans or fail. When banks fail, new entrepreneurs start up and existing enterprises that didn’t fail are strengthened. (Doing the right thing is rewarded.)

$700 billion bailout. Banks have no incentive to help homeowners. Banks horde capital. The very jerks who got us into the mess in the first place still have their jobs and probably got a bonus.

Government owns banks, limits pay of executives and ties up reform in red tape. Lots of noise. Slow recovery. Trying to force the banks to rewrite the loans, while at the same time assuring them that the bailout dough will flow isn’t keeping people in their homes.

Recession

Lower taxes. Let consumers and businesses decide where to spend their dollars. Stimulus begins almost immediately. The companies making the best products and services are rewarded with earnings.

White House shafts Chrysler bondholders and gives majority stake to unions. Meanwhile, Japanese auto makers lead the charge for fuel efficient cars.

Stimulus package has bureaucrats tied up in red tape. Very little of the promised billions has been distributed to date, only $15 billion of the promised $787 billion. Distribution of stimulus money is slow, as is recovery.

You are invested in the course of the U.S. with your taxpayer dollars and your investment dollars. Start fueling a world that works for everyone. Stop blindly checking off boxes in your 401(k), IRA, pension and annuity. Stop investing in cronyism economics. Point your dollars at the companies that make the best products and services on the planet and you spark a real recovery. Stay naïve and under-educated and you are a cog in the wheel of the status quo – of bailouts, bureaucracy and boom/bust cycles.

Knowing what you own is made easy-as-a-pie chart in my book, You Vs. Wall Street: Grow What You’ve Got and Win Back What You Lost.

So have a little faith (not blind faith) that you can do this, if you just get the right tools and education. You’ll find out how to make the magic of Stock Report Cards and pie charts work to provide you with money while you sleep in the pages of You Vs. Wall Street.

You vs. Wall Street "provides almost fool proof methods for growing wealth for the long haul," according to Success Magazine. Readers call You Vs. Wall Street a "must-read financial bible," and "just what some readers need to find themselves exponentially richer in the coming years." You vs. Wall Street teaches you how to win on Wall Street in any market—bull or bear. Now is the time to choose wisdom over blind faith, to invest in winning companies and to whistle all the way to your local bailed out bank.

• MASTER THE UNIQUE THREE-PART INVESTMENT PLAN
• LEARN HOW TO AVOID THE BAILOUT INDEX
• DISCOVER THE FOOLPPROOF GET RICH AND STAY RICH PROGRAM
• FIND OUT HOW TO AVOID THE TOP ELEVEN INVESTING MISTAKES

I also teach these strategies in a 3-day investing retreat. Investors who attend the retreat walk out with a blueprint that works for the rest of their life. They have selected the exact ten funds they are most interested in, and know how to select new funds as different industries become the next hot thing. They know which months are best for profit-taking and which for buying back in, historically, to maximize the potential for capturing gains annually.

If you are interested in attending my March 27-29, 2010 Get Rich and Green investing retreat in Santa Monica, California (the best place to be in March), please call 866.476.7442 or email info@NataliePace.com right away. The retreat only seats a dozen people, and only a handful of seats remain. As my gift to you, I’ve extended the early bird rates of $999/person (based upon two people registering together) or $1299/person through January 31, 2010. This is the perfect New Year New You gift to yourself and your spouse. Spring at Santa Monica Beach getting financial smarts that will pay off forever.

Groups like the Green Goddess Investment Club are reporting 48% gains over the last 12 months, using my strategies. "With the valuable guidance of our mentor Natalie Pace we out performed the bear market with the extraordinary result of 48% GAINS!!!!!!"  Cindy Ciscowski, President, Green Goddess Investment Club. Options traders and Certified Financial Planners brag that their portfolio returns are "staggering," in the wake of learning my methods, after just three days of training. Other retreat attendees earn back the price of he retreat in the first week.

Track Record of our Reporting
While the markets are still down significantly since their high in October of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years. 88 positions listed below – 84% -- have delivered impressive gains over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading lower than it was ten years ago! Only seventeen of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given the horrible market drop of 2008-2009.

Yes, many, but not all, of our top performers in 2008 and 2009 are shorts, which is why we added options training to the retreat. Remember that the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take your profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing years.

3 out of 6 Company of the Year selections more than doubled.  My 2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.  MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders that year.   So three out of six are superperformers, and one (Myspace) performed well above the market. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.  (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)

TipsTraders.com continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied the #1 position and have consistently scored at the top of their 830 A-list pundits. I scored a #11 ranking for 2008. Some of my best picks include: Google (GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in 2008 and 2009 were put options – on the Cooling Off list -- which is why I added options training to my 3-day Get Rich and Green Investing Retreat. Look on the Cooling Off list for details on the incredible gains options investors enjoyed on Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Toll Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.

This stock newsletter was the first to list the following 911 alerts:

  1. To get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
  2. Avoid General Motors and other American auto-manufacturers in 2004
  3. Get out of Dodge (real estate) in 2005
  4. Trim back on Faded Blue Chips in 2006
  5. Lehman Bros’ colossal insider selling in 2006 

Market Movers:
The Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the 11.04.09 meeting press release, the Federal Reserve Board further elaborated on the reasoning behind the rock bottom rates, writing: "Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace... Economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time."

That is Fed-speak for "We are doing everything to stimulate the economy, which should work eventually, but the situation is still rough, folks." Deflation is no longer much of a concern, and the Feds think that inflation is far enough away that Fed Fund rates will remain exceptionally low for an "extended period."

The Milken Institute estimates that the bailout to date has already cost the taxpayer $9.8 trillion.

The next FOMC meeting takes place on December 15-16, 2009.

Second Estimate GDP growth rates for 2Q 2009 were revised downward to 2.8% (from 3.5%) according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was the first positive GDP growth rate since the 4th quarter of 2007. Final GDP growth rates for 2Q 2009 and 1Q 2009 were a decline of -0.7% & -5.5%, respectively. The economy contracted at -6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008. What happened between 2008 and 3Q 2009? Massive government spending is the main driver of the economy at this point. The Cash for Clunkers Program is responsible for over half of the GDP growth, both in government incentives and stimulated, incentive-related consumer spending.

Final GDP growth rates for 3Q 2009 were released on December 22, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. ET (after press time). These release days tend to be very active on Wall Street. No surprise that the 3rd quarter of 2009 was the first positive GDP report since the 4th quarter of 2007, however, if the second estimates came in lower than 2.8%, investors could lose confidence (and vice versa if the numbers were revised upward). For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section often.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC Information: Interested in reading the press release of the December 15-16, 2009 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!

The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2009 calendar is: January 26-27, 2010 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 16 (Tuesday), April 27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 22-23 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 10 (Tuesday), September 21 (Tuesday), November 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 14 (Tuesday), January 25-26, 2011 (Tuesday-Wednesday).

2. Calendar Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. Be the first to know the dates of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication date of our next ezine. Join me on BlogTalkRadio.com. Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.

Don’t miss the Modern  Girls’ Guide to Sex, Love and Money Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com,  Wednesdays at 9:00 a.m. PT.   There I interview experts on everything from gold, to health, to stocks, to writing blockbuster books. Get real answers to your questions — anonymously (just pick a nickname when you call in).

Get call-in and log-in instructions at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. This is a Q&A format, where you can call in or Twitter in your questions. Be sure to write down your most pressing questions now, and become a friend to Natalie Pace on Twitter at Twitter.com/NataliePace, so that you can Tweet on the show.

3. Survey Results: Each month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page! How are you feeling about the New Year? Rejuvenated? Worn out?

4. Euro interest rates: ECB rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement is scheduled for January 14, 2010 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (February 4, 2010 after that.)

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education" money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t have mastery over.

Hot News List (highlighted).  Be sure that you are buying low.
None

Profit-Taking (Take your profits early and often):
KCI Concepts (KCI) +75%
LDK Solar (LDK) +36%
U.S. Gold (UXG) +462%

DELETIONS (Take your profits early and often):
New Zealand Dollar currency ETF by WisdomTree (BNZ) on 12.14.09 Ener1 (HEV) deleted on 12.18.09 Satcon (SATC) deleted on 12.18.09

HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS LIST

Company NP owns? Symbol Price when featured

Price

12.18.09

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

American Superconductor

Yes

AMSC

$30.70

$39.94

$37.58

$8.22

+30%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should benefit from President Obama’s commitment to build a "a new smart grid to carry electricity from coast to coast."

 

11.19.09 press release: The company reaffirmed that it expects revenues will grow more than 60 percent to a range of $300 million to $310 million in its fiscal 2009 compared to approximately $183 million in fiscal 2008. The company maintained its guidance for GAAP net income of $11 million to $13 million, or $0.24 to $0.29 per diluted share, for fiscal 2009. On a non-GAAP basis, the company continues to expect net income of $27 million to $29 million, or $0.59 to $0.64 per diluted share, for full year fiscal 2009.

For fiscal 2010, the company expects to grow revenues to more than $400 million. The company also expects to generate GAAP net income of more than $36 million, or more than $0.77 per diluted share, and a non-GAAP profit of more than $54 million, or more than $1.15 per diluted share, for fiscal 2010.

"With more than $300 million of fiscal 2010 backlog in hand today, we have a strong platform to grow our total revenues to more than $400 million in fiscal 2010," said Greg Yurek, AMSC’s founder and chief executive officer. "We expect substantial earnings growth in fiscal 2010, driven by increased revenues, greater productivity in all of our operations, and lower manufacturing costs as the result of initiatives we have undertaken in recent quarters."

AOL

No

AOL

$23.00

$23.57

$27.00

$23.00

+2%

Read "AOL: From LOL to OMG" from Vol. 6, issue 12.

Hoku Scientific

Hawaii

RISK: HIGH

Yes

HOKU

$8.03

$2.00

(3.2.09)

$2.56

$14.55

$1.90

-68% &

+28%

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.

 

Hoku's key project schedule (based upon work resuming in October): completing a reactor demonstration in December 2009, completing construction of 2,500 metric tons of polysilicon production capacity in March 2010, and completing construction of the full 4,000 metric tons of capacity, including on-site trichlorosilane (TCS) production, in December 2010.

On September 29, 2009, Hoku announced that Tianwei was investing in Hoku and debt financing would be provided by Tianwei and China Construction Bank for the construction and development of Hoku's polysilicon production facility in Pocatello, Idaho. Hoku confirmed that the $50 million in debt, plus prepayments from its existing customers, is expected to be sufficient to complete construction to the point where it could commence shipments to customers, and it intends to delay any additional financing until such time. On the basis of these funding sources, Hoku reported it is preparing to issue orders to resume full scale plant construction at an accelerated pace upon closing of the financing, which is expected to occur in October 2009.

You can see the facility’s progress on the home page at HokuCorp.com.

Kinetic Concepts, Inc.

No

KCI

$38.81

$21.05

(12.1.08)

$36.85

$43.00

$17.86

-5% &

+75%

Read the article, "Beauty is Skin Deep," in Vol. 5, issue 5. If you made a profit of 68%, take your profits early and often!

REPORTED 3Q 2009 EARNINGS ON 10.21.09. 2009: third quarter 2009 total revenue of $504.4 million, compared to $503.3 million reported for the third quarter of 2008. Total revenue for the first nine months of 2009 was $1.466 billion, up 6% from the prior-year period. Net earnings for the third quarter of 2009 were $64.6 million, or $0.91 per diluted share, compared to $53.9 million, or $0.75 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2008, representing increases of 20% and 21%, respectively, from the prior-year periods.

Entered Japanese market on 11.2.09.

FDA approved ABThera™ Open Abdomen Negative Pressure Therapy System on June 11, 2009. The new therapy has already been launched, according to Catherine M. Burzik, KCI’s President and CEO. "I am very pleased to see the progress of KCI’s business in light of continued economic and competitive pressures," said Catherine Burzik, President and Chief Executive Officer of KCI. "KCI continues to meet its goals in terms of innovation, global market expansion and operational efficiency. We recently introduced our highly innovative open abdominal wound system, AbThera, to operating room surgeons in the U.S. and Europe and we are on track with our plans for the launch of V.A.C. Therapy in Japan. We look forward to the second half of the year with confidence."

KCI won its suit in the U.S. against Smith and Nephew to prevent them from selling foam dressing kits. On June 15, 2009, The Federal Court of Australia, Victoria District Registry, issued a temporary injunction prohibiting Smith & Nephew. Trial in Australia is set for 2010. UK issued a temporary injunction and the German courts are considering the same action as well. Smith & Nephew has vowed to appeal.

LDK Solar

GREEN

Yes

LDK

$30.02

$4.94

(3.2.09)

$6.71

$76.75

$3.75

-78% &

+36%

If you made a profit of 60%, take your profits early and often!

Read the articles, "Green" in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, issue 4.

News on 11.2.09 that Q-Cells (QCE.F), the German solar cell company, has terminated an agreement under which LDK supplied Q-Cells with solar wafers and was threatening to draw back on its prepayment of $244.4 million to LDK disheartened investors. Shares were off by over 18% in early trading…

3Q 2009 earnings: Third quarter 2009 revenue was $281.9 million, compared to $228.3 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2009, and $541.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2008. Net income was $29.4 million, compared to a net loss of $216.9 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2009.

LDK Solar ended the third quarter of 2009 with $67.8 million in cash and cash equivalents and $72.7 million in short-term pledged bank deposits.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$11.99

$12.50

$73.56

$11.32

+5%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Acquisition of solar developer SunEdison (announced on 10.22.09) should start putting meat on MEMC’s bottom line in 2010. They now enter solar power generation with an A-list company in that field. Recovering after silicon re-pricing completely threw off their profit margins. Better times going forward.

Sunpower

No

SPWRA

$24.83

$20.38

(12.1.09)

$24.41

$107.00

$18.50

Flat &

+20%

Read "The Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3.

Sunpower panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used Sunpower panels.

3Q earnings on 10.22.09: Record Q3 2009 revenue of $466 million.

$800 million in cash and investments.

Announced on 12.16.09 that the Montalto di Castro solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant, the largest in Italy, has been completed and is contributing clean, renewable solar power to Italy's national electric grid. The plant, located in Italy's Viterbro province, Lazio, was connected to the grid on November 30, several weeks ahead of schedule. According to SunRay, the plant produces enough power for 13,000 homes, and avoids the emissions of 22,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year. This project is the first phase of a planned 85-megawatt development that is expected to be fully operational in 2010.

1 MW system for UC Merced has been financed by Wells Fargo. The system uses SunPower solar panels, the most efficient solar panels on the market, with the SunPower T20 Tracker(R) system. The Tracker follows the sun's movement during the day, capturing up to 30 percent more sunlight than conventional fixed-tilt systems, while significantly reducing land use requirements.

SunPower has more than 550 large public and commercial solar power systems installed or under contract, representing more than 450 megawatts of solar power generation.

U.S. Gold

Colorado USA

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$.50 (10.20)

$2.66 (10.09)

$2.31

$7.04

$.38

-54% &

462% &

-13%

Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very risky.

NOTE: The mantra this year continues to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve made a return of five times your investment, consider taking some of your profits. Since gold is still in favor (in our view) and U.S. Gold has not hit its full potential (in my view), I’m keeping this company on the Hot News List. Profit-taking is not the same as selling off all of the position.

Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09.

If you believe in this CEO and company, you’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S. Gold going forward. Gold should be a great hedge against inflation, which is predicted to become an issue once the economy starts to rebound (2010 and forward). Right now, the Feds are still a little concerned about deflation, but inflation could begin on the 12-24 month horizon.

This is an exploration company, not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time.

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol. 3, issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com channel. You can review my original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).

Recently Deleted Companies 2008/2009:
Echelon +20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson +10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%, Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08) +40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek (deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1 and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1 and 12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits 20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On 2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42% on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%. OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%), GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC (+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%) and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%, AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted 4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google +9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%, SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpac +42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19% gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with 50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%. Deleted 5.15.09: SQM with gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09: EMKR with losses of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1 with gains of 11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy with losses of -52-98%. Deleted Smith and Nephew on 8.15.09 with gains of 17% and losses of 28%. Deleted the New Zealand dollar currency ETF by Wisdom Tree with 36% gains on 12.12.09. 12.18.09: Deleted Ener1 with 22% gains and Satcon with 29% gains.

Recently Deleted from the Hot News list:

Ener1

No

HEV

$4.92

$5.99

$9.49

$2.35

+22%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Won an award of $118.5 million from the Obama Administration to develop batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles. Was mentioned by name by President Obama in his remarks of August 5, 2009. 12.7.09 press release: ITOCHU purchased 3.2 million shares of common stock from Ener1 at a price of $6.18 per share. Recent announcements stemming from Ener1's partnership with ITOCHU include the first project in the world linking grid storage, electric vehicles, rapid recharging infrastructure and solar power, working alongside Mazda Corporation and Think Global electric vehicle company; the conversion of Japanese Postal trucks in the Kanagawa and Tokyo Prefectures; and the development of one of the world's most advanced rapid recharge technologies, working alongside Kyushu Electric Power (KEPCO), the fourth largest power and utility company in Japan.

In August 2009, the company received a $118 million cost-share grant from the U.S. Department of Energy, which will be used to help double the company's domestic production capacity.

New Zealand Dollar currency ETF by WisdomTree

No

BNZ

$25.17

$18.49

(12.1.08)

$25.20

$25.31

$16.67

Flat &

+36%

If you made a profit of 36%, take your profits early and often!

 

Read the article, "Foreign Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in Vol. 5, issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand is the new attraction on the world currency markets. New Zealand has the highest interest rate in the industrialized world. Currently, the Official Cash Rate is 2.5%. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard, at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, wrote in a press release on June 11, 2009, "The recent rise in the New Zealand dollar creates an unhelpful tension with our projections. A stronger dollar at a time of weak global growth risks delaying or even reversing the projected increase in exports, putting the sustainability of recovery at risk… We expect to keep the OCR at or below the current level through until the latter part of 2010."

Satcon

No

SATC

$1.93

$2.49

$2.57

$1.08

+29%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. Certainly could benefit from the $3.4 billion that President Obama awarded on October 27, 2009 to Smart Grid and Clean Power projects. The company makes power converters as well as grid monitoring systems, and was the company of choice when Google built their solar plant.

Beware, however, of the continuing losses and constricted capital environment that has been so troublesome for clean energy in 2009.

3Q 2009 earnings on Oct. 28, 2009: $11.7 million in revenue and a net loss of $8.5 million. Annual report is expected on 12.31.09.

"While total sales were down year over year due to the global recession, revenue for the third quarter increased 27% over the second quarter of 2009," said Steve Rhoades, Satcon’s President and Chief Executive Officer. "Our top-line growth highlights the successful execution of our corporate strategy to develop and launch the industry’s most advanced utility scale solar PV inverter solutions. In addition, we began to see an increase in bookings in North America, Europe and China, resulting in current backlog of over $24 million, positioning us for a solid fourth quarter."

Stocks to Watch
Some of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which!  

Note that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List, anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share prices.

Recent Additions:
Ford Motor Company (F)

Recent Deletions:
ENER1 (Symbol: HEV). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
MEMC Electronics (WFR). Moved to Hot News list on 12.1.09.
Microsoft (MSFT). Moved to Cooling Off list on 12.1.09.
Satcon (Symbol: SATC). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.
Sunpower Solar (Symbol: SPWRA). Moved to Hot News List on 11.1.09.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

12.18.09

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Altair Nano-technology

No

ALTI

$1.16

$0.85

$2.94

$0.60

-27%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" Vol. 6, issue 4.

Altair was not on the list of battery makers receiving grants from the Obama Administration.

3Q earnings on November 5, 2009: Revenues of $1.7 million, down from $1.8 million for the same period in 2008. The net loss was $3.3 million, compared to a net loss of $9.1 millionfor the third quarter of 2008.

The Company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by $4.1 million, from $28.1 million at December 31, 2008 to $23.9 million at September 30, 2009. This is due primarily to net cash used in operations of approximately $18.1 million, $4.8 million of which was for increased product inventories; investing activities primarily consisting of purchases of fixed assets of approximately $0.6 million offset by $2.0 million received from the sale of our Spectrum common stock; and financing activities that include payment of notes payable of $0.6 million offset by $12.8 million of proceeds relating to the issuance of common shares in May 2009.   

 "We have experienced an increased level of customer requests for quotes in the past couple of months" said Dr. Terry Copeland, Altairnano's president and CEO. "In addition, we anticipate that potential order activity will begin to gain traction as we enter into 2010. Given the importance of establishing this revenue stream and having referenceable customers for other prospects to speak with, we need to be able to move expeditiously once we have these initial firm orders."


During the third quarter Altairnano received the final signed contracts for both the $3.8 million Office of Naval Research phase 2 development program, and the Department of Defense supported $1.8 million nanosensor project. The Company will perform work on both of these contracts during the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2010.

Big Lots

No

BIG

$30.28

$29.36

$34.88

$12.40

-3%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6.

Canadian Imperial Bank

RISK: Medium

No

CM

$65.88

$63.74

$108.79

$30.64

-3%

Refer to the "Banking on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital.

Citigroup

RISK: HIGH

No

C

$2.26

$3.40

$27.35

$.97

+50%

Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Bailed out by the Feds November 2008. 1Q 2009 results will be released on 4.17.09 at 6:30 a.m. ET.

eBay

No

EBAY

$16.80

$22.67

$32.10

$9.91

+35%

Etail should perform better than retail in the recession. But eBay is still having reduced earnings. Waiting for a leveling off period.

Eldorado Gold

No

EGO

$10.56

$13.61

$11.39

$2.38

+29%

Read "Investing in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9.

First Solar

No

FSLR

$144.76

$135.67

$317.00

$85.28

-6%

See "Solar Springs Up Again," article in Vol. 5, issue 4.

First Solar joined S&P500 on 10.02.09. 3Q 2009 on 10.28.09: 3Q earnings revenue was down from 2Q by -8.5%. Investors panicked and slammed shares.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details.

FMC Corp.

No

FMC

$51.36

$55.85

$80.23

$28.53

+9%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4. FMC is the real winner of the stimulus package because they supply lithium to the battery makers. Waiting for a better buy-in point. FYI: FMC just sold $300 million in senior notes. Check with your CFP if you’re interested in purchasing. There may be opportunities in the secondary marketplace.

Annual report should be issued near 12.31.09. Add to Hot News list in 2010?

Ford Motor Company

No

F

$9.65

$9.65

$9.65

$1.50

--

Read "How Cap and Trade Saved Ford" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive, but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any investment here.

Google

No

GOOG

$393.69

$596.42

$602.45

$247.30

-51%

See Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu Your Heroes." CEO Eric Schmidt just stepped down from the board of Apple, Inc. Thomson Reuters said analysts expected this because Apple and Google have begun to compete on smart phones and computer operating systems. Note that Google’s 52-week low if $247.30 and be careful not to buy in too high.

Maxwell Labs

No

MXWL

$10.25

$16.30

$18.78

$4.00

+58%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Increased sales by 30% this 2nd Quarter over last year, to $24.8 million from $19 million. Net loss for Q209 was $5.3 million, compared with $4 million the year prior. Cash on hand = $31.5 million. It is the continuing losses and constricted capital environment that prevents us from putting this company on the Hot List, even though sales are jumping. We’ll look again at the 3Q 2009, which should occur around November 11, 2009.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF

No

PBW

$9.78

$10.75

$23.96

$5.78

+10%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Rio Tinto

No

RTP

$180.79

$203.74

$558.65

$59.20

+13%

Gold, copper and other commodities mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly in Australia.

Ross Stores

No

ROST

$35.90

$42.90

$48.58

$21.23

+19%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6.

Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile

No

SQM

$36.36

$38.39

$59.41

$12.98

+6%

This is a great company that manufactures silicon for the solar and IT industry. Looking for a better buy-in, closer to or under $35. Annual report on 12.31.09. Earnings were up 83% in the 3Q of 2009, compared to 2008 3Q.

Read the article, "Treasure Hunting", in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium," from Vol. 6, issue 4. SQM announced on Sept. 30, 2009 that prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be reduced by approximately 20% from current levels for the renewal of all its supply contracts. The purpose is to accelerate demand recovery, create incentives for research of new lithium uses, and contribute to the sustainable long-term development of the lithium market.

10.27.09 Earnings: Earnings for the first nine months of 2009 of US$251.7 million, a decrease of 34.0% with respect to the same period of 2008, when earnings totaled US$381.1 million. Operating income reached US$342.0 million (32.6% of revenues), 29.0% lower than the US$481.4 million (35.0% of revenues) recorded during the first nine months of 2008. Revenues totaled US$1,049.2 million for the first nine months, representing a decrease of 23.8% over the US$1,376.2 million reported in the same period of 2008.

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

Beijing, China

Small Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SOHU

$46.54

$54.56

$91.50

$34.10

+17%

See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol. 3, issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com channel. You can review my original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).

Suntech Power Holdings

No

STP

$16.06

$16.98

$49.60

$5.09

+6%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer.

Add to Hot News at opportune moment in 2010?

Announced 3Q 2009 on November 20, 2009 before the markets opened. Revenues were $472.1 million, up 47.4% from last quarter. Net income was $29.8 million, compared to $10 million in the 2nd Q of 2009.

On 9.30.09, Suntech announced the completion and grid connection of the first 10MW utility-scale solar power project in China. Located in Shizuishan, Ningxia Autonomous Region, the 10MW ground mount solar system is the first phase of a 50MW solar plant that is targeted to be completed by 2011 in conjunction with Suntech's strategic partner, China Energy Conservation Investment Corporation (CECIC). In addition to supplying high quality solar modules for the system, Suntech designed, installed and managed the development of the solar system and holds a minority share of the project.

Trina Solar Ltd.

No

TSL

$17.56

$51.53

$53.50

$5.61

+293%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

 

Dec. 1, 2009: Chinese solar power company Trina Solar Ltd. said it signed a new sales agreement to supply about 8 megawatts of photovoltaic modules to the Chinese domestic market, as part of its efforts to expand sales in China. Shipments began in November and are to continue through the end this month. Prices were not released. The Golden Sun program in China aims to install 20 MW of solar power capacity in every province, according to the Associated Press.

Westpac

No

WBK

$73.54

$104.83

$122.58

$45.16

+42%

Issued it’s half-year "interim" results on May 6, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.

Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency ETF

No

ICN

$24.28

$24.93

$25.71

$20.42

flat

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from Vol. 5, issue 2.

Cooling Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
None

DELETIONS:
KB Home (KBH)
Toll Brothers (TOL)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 12.18.09

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

American Express

Yes

AXP

$16.98

$41.56

(11.16.09)

$40.51

$52.63

$14.72

+239% &

-2.5%

Read the article "American Express," from Vol. 6, issue 2. Earnings on 10.22.09: Income was down 25%. To $642 million from $861 million a year ago. $19 billion in cash on hand. Debt is $55 billion ($53 long; $2 billion "short term"), with $27 billion in "other liabilities." Customer deposits are $24 billion.

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$132.07

$190.47 (11.16.09)

$195.43

$192.24

$78.20

+48% &

+3%

See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple Chips."

4Q 2009 earnings on 10.19.09 were amazing: posted revenue of $9.87 billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $7.9 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.14 billion, or $1.26 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 46 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple sold 3.05 million Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing a 17 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 10.2 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing seven percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter.

"We are thrilled to have sold more Macs and iPhones than in any previous quarter," said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO, in the earnings press release. "We’ve got a very strong lineup for the holiday season and some really great new products in the pipeline for 2010."

Dr. Eric Schmidt, CEO, Google, resigned from Apple’s board on August 3, 2009. According to Steve Jobs, it’s because Google’s new products pose a conflict of interest with Apple’s core biz. No surprise here. It was expected.

On September 15, 2009, Bruce Sewell, formerly senior vice president and general counsel of Intel Corporation, because SVP and general counsel, replaced Daniel Cooperman, who had the job for the last two years. Cooperman’s departure at this time seems to be slightly more troublesome, given that he would have been actively involved in the decision to keep the extent of Jobs’ illness from investors (whether he opposed or supported it).

Steve Jobs today (go to GettyImages.com to see him speaking on Sept. 9, 2009) looks like the grandfather of his photo on the Apple website. Apple products are amazing and Tim Cooks, Jobs’ commander in chief, seems to do a fantastic job. But Steve is the face and soul of Apple – especially in investors’ eyes.

Insider selling is over $150 million since June 2009 (after Jobs announced his liver transplant). Consensus insider selling from multiple directors and officers.

Applied Materials

No

AMAT

$12.76

$13.51 (9.15.09)

$13.62

$14.19

$7.17

+5% &

flat

Leadership, product line and recessionary actions were strong, but AMAT transitioned to solar just when sales dropped off. Weathering the storm is imperative in the meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es of this company, which is hard to justify in a contracting environment. With almost $2 billion in cash and marketable securities, AMAT is in a position to regroup and recover in the future. With any luck and with the purported US emphasis on clean energy (which has yet to see real funding), this is a temporary setback.

3Q loss (released on 8.11.09) was $55 million on $1.13 billion of net sales. "In a difficult environment, Applied improved its operating performance and generated significant cash flow while making substantial investments in new technologies for next-generation semiconductor chips, flat panel displays and solar panels," said Mike Splinter, chairman and CEO.

Baidu

No

BIDU

$183.15

$483.60

(11.16.09)

$414.40

$397.70

$100.50

+226% &

-14%

Leading Chinese website for search (similar to Google). 46 P/E is high for a revenue stream so tied to advertising (during a global recession). (Advertising revenue models tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only 30, by comparison, right now.)

The primary Risk Factor for Baidu is: We derive revenues primarily from online marketing services, which accounted for 98.9%, 99.8% and 99.9% of our total revenues in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Berkshire Hathaway

No

BRK.A

$97,000

$102,105 (8.13.09)

$100,899

$147,000

$70,050

+4% &

-2%

 

Capital One Financial

No

COF

$22.29

$37.98 (9.15.09)

$39.50

$63.50

$7.80

+77% &

+4%

Credit card companies are under distress. And now, the Obama Administration is setting up a Bill of Rights for their customer. Tough times for the credit industry continue, and this company is really experiencing some of the toughest challenges of the field.

3Q 2009 earnings on 10.22.09: Cash and cash equivalents were $4.1 billion, down from $4.8 billion (2Q 2009) and down from $7.5 billion at the end of 2008. Managed revenue increased $482.0 million, or 11.6 percent, relative to the second quarter.

Provision expense increased $296.4 million, due to an anticipated increase in charge-offs as well as a modest allowance build of $31.7 million in the third quarter.

"We've worked for years to position our company to be resilient, and our third quarter results demonstrate that resiliency in the midst of the most challenging economic cycle we've seen in generations," said Richard D. Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We are successfully weathering the storm, but the storm is not over. Therefore, we will continue to take the decisive actions necessary to place our company in the best position to navigate the downturn and drive shareholder value over the cycle."

According to the annual earnings report. "The adoption of SFAS 166 and SFAS 167 could have a significant impact on the Company’s consolidated financial statements because the Company expects it will be required to consolidate at least some of its special purpose entities to which pools of loan receivables have been transferred in transactions previously qualifying as sales. Holding more of these assets on the Company’s balance sheet may require it to take various actions, including raising additional capital, in order to meet regulatory capital requirements. Such capital may not be available on terms favorable to the Company, if at all, and could have a negative impact on the Company’s financial results. As of June 30, 2009, the Company had approximately $44.5 billion of credit card receivables held by QSPEs." SFAS 166 and 167 take effect in 2010.

Read the article "American Express," from Vol. 6, issue 2.

Fortress Investment Group

No

FIG

$3.57

$5.37 (8.13.09)

$4.45

$19.50

$0.77

+25% &

-17%

Released 3Q 2009 results on November 6, 2009. GAAP net income, excluding principal’s agreement compensation, of $50 million. GAAP net loss of $190 million (due to the principals taking $140 million this quarter) even though FIG has lost 310 million this year…

Daniel H. Mudd, currently member of the Fortress board of directors, will become the firm's new CEO effective August 11, 2009. George W. Wellde has been elected to Fortress' Board of Directors.

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Money Grows on Wisdom Trees," from Vol. 4, issue 3. Reported earnings on 3.15.09. FY 2008 GAAP net loss of GAAP net loss of $322 million. Principals in the company earned $222 million of that net loss.

2Q2009 earnings on 8.09: Net los of -$171 million. Without paying the principals in the company, the net income would have been $66 million. Man these guys are getting paid a lot to lose a lot of dough!

On 9.22.09: dividend was canceled by Board.

Intel

RISK: LOW

No

INTC

$16.66

$20.25 (9.1.09)

$19.63

$25.29

$12.06

+18% &

-3%

Intel is a great blue chip. Sales are off 8%, however.

Medtronic

No

MDT

$33.35

$37.09

(9.15.09)

$43.22

$56.97

$24.06

+30% &

+16%

Medtronic’s Infuse Bone Graft product has been at the center of the debate of some controversial deaths, and has investigated by a Congressional Panel, the Justice Department, the SEC and other national, state and local governance officials for issues related to the use of this product and others. Read the earnings report for a complete list of the complaints and current status. The company reports that on August 21, 2009, the Department of Justice decided not to intervene at this time but may intervene at any time for good cause based upon a Court Order entered on August 28, 2009.

MGM Mirage

No

MGM

$26.79

$9.64

$100.50

$5.10

-64%

Get more information in Vol. 5, issue 10 in the (No) Viva Las Vegas article.

The City Center project looms as exceedingly problematic in today’s vast downturn of real estate in the Las Vegas area. Anticipating very bad news on this project in the near future. MGM has kept itself alive in the harshest climate of the new millennium through selling assets, selling more stock and taken on more debt. All of the debt receives a junk rating from Fitch. On October 1, 2009, they had to cancel a debt exchange offer due to low interest from debt-holders.

Earnings on 11.5.09: Net revenue decreased 9% to $1.5 billion. Net loss was $133 million. Debt at the end of the quarter was $12.5 billion.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$29.64

$30.36

$30.53

$14.87

+2%

Read the "AOL: From LOL to OMG" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Microsoft from December 2009.

Great blue chip (certainly better than Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG and GM were), if you buy at the right price. But revenue is off. Q1 2010 earnings report (on 10.23.09): Windows Revenue is off by 39%, down to $2,620 million from $4,278 in 2008 1st Q. Operating income is off 52%, down to $1,463 from $3,059 a year ago… Nintendo’s WII is the gaming device of choice (and X-Box shipments were down to 2.1 million, from 2.2 million). "Nongaming" entertainment revenue is reportedly off by 14% ($98 million). What’s nongaming entertainment? Remember Zune? Well, that is one of the "PC hardware products" that is decreasing in sales. (Did it ever sell at all?) You get the picture. When revenue is down by 14% across the board, and the strongest season – holidays – are predicted to limp along and favor the competition (WII), and anti-trust law suits are still being battled, best not to buy Microsoft at its 52-week high.

Sears Holding

Yes

SHLD

$52.93

$78.37 (8.13.09)

$76.27

$108.75

$26.80

+44% &

-3%

Read the articles, Cherry Picking the "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, issue 12) and the "Discount Designer Stores" article (Vol. 5, issue 6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been trying to get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for months or been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot for so long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all of the board directors at Sears are in the investment business, not the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott, a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board has any experience at all in retail.

You can read the shareholders letter from Chairman Eddie Lampert on the SearsHoldings.com website. 10 minutes into the letter, and I have to call this a rant. Big red flag folks.

Still don’t have a CEO. Bruce Johnson is interim CEO. New CFO started last October, right before the preparation of the annual report began. The former CFO Miles Reidy decided that he needed to spend more time with his family than to put is name on the 2008 annual report. Another big red flag.

Consensus, colossal insider selling to the tune of over $100 million, including warrants that were exercised by interim CEO Bruce Johnson.

3Q 2009 earnings on 11.19.09: Net loss was $127 million. Total revenues decreased $470 million to $10.2 billion for the 13 weeks ended October 31, 2009, as compared to total revenues of $10.7 billion for the 13 weeks ended November 1, 2008. Total debt (consisting of short-term borrowings, long-term debt and capital lease obligations) at November 11, 2009 was $3.8 billion, as compared to $3.2 billion (8.09). Cash on hand is $1.5 billion. Short -term borrowings are $1.6 billion.

Taubman Centers REIT

No

TCO

$24.74

$33.81 (9.15.09)

$35.00

$65.99

$12.43

+41% &

+3.5%

Read the article, "Global Recession," from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.

3Q 2009 earnings on 10.26.09: Net loss allocable to common shareholders per diluted share (EPS) was -$1.77 for the quarter ended September 30, 2009, versus $0.17 for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.

"The environment for retail real estate continues to be challenging," said Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Taubman Centers. "Lease cancellation income from our tenants offset a decline in rents. In addition, we are very focused on costs throughout our organization, which contributed to our results during the quarter."

Time Warner

No

TWX

$24.44

$29.45

$50.70

$17.81

+20%

Read the article, "Hulu Your Heroes," from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.

Scheduled to report 3Q 2009 earnings on Nov. 4, 2009 before the market opens.

2Q earnings on 7.29.09: In the quarter, Revenues declined 9% from the same period in 2008 to $6.8 billion. Lower revenues at the Publishing, AOL and Filmed Entertainment segments more than offset growth at the Networks segment. Net Income was $519 million, down from $792 million the year prior.

CEO Jeff Bewkes said: "At the same time, we’re continuing the reshaping of Time Warner that we started last year. We’re on track to spin off AOL to our stockholders around the end of the year. Separating AOL will benefit both companies – enabling Time Warner to concentrate fully on our core content businesses and improving AOL’s operational and strategic flexibility."

Wells Fargo

Yes

WFC

$20.05

$29.21

(10.15.09)

$26.78

$44.69

$7.80

+34% &

-8%

See "Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings" in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12. Announces 3Q earnings on Oct 21, 2009 at 5:00 a.m. PT (before market open).

3Q 2009 on 10.21.09: 3rd consecutive quarter of record earnings. Record Wells Fargo net income of $3.2 billion, up 98 percent from last year; $9.5 billion year to date, up 75 percent from last year.

Generated $20 billion during the past six months toward the $13.7 billion Supervisory Capital

Assessment Program (SCAP) buffer requirement; PTPP tracking above Company’s internal SCAP

estimates and 35 percent above supervisory adverse scenario estimate. Credit reserves built by $1.0 billion ($3.0 billion year to date), reaching $24.5 billion, or 3.07 percent of total loans and 118 percent of nonaccrual loans.

Earnings releases from Wells Fargo are no longer mass distributed. They are available on the company’s website at:

https://www.wellsfargo.com/invest_relations/earnings

13,000 team members are working on helping customers stay in their homes and Wells reports that their "delinquency and foreclosure rates continue to be well below the industry average."

Wells Fargo Chairman takes early retirement:

Dick Kovacevich will step down as chairman and a director at the end of 2009 and retire from the Company in early 2010.

Wynn Resorts

No

WYNN

$95.42

$60.02

$176.14

$18.06

-37%

Check out the article, "(No) Viva Las Vegas" in Vol. 5, issue 10.

3Q 2009 results announced on 10.27.2009. Net revenues for the third quarter of 2009 were $773.1 million, compared to $769.2 million in the third quarter of 2008. Net income for the quarter was $34.2 million compared to net income of $51.2 million in 2008. "Results of operations for the periods presented are not comparable to prior periods as the three months ended September 30, 2009 includes Encore at Wynn Las Vegas, which opened on December 22, 2008. The prior year quarter includes only Wynn Las Vegas."

Total cash balances on September 30, 2009 were $1.3 billion. Total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $4.2 billion, including approximately $2.7 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $1.5 billion of Wynn Macau debt. In October 2009, Wynn Macau Limited, a newly formed and indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Wynn Resorts and the developer, owner, and operator of Wynn Macau, completed an initial public offering of 27.7% of its ordinary shares on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. Net proceeds to the Company as a result of this transaction were approximately $1.8 billion. Total cash, after the Wynn Macau, Limited IPO and certain debt transactions mentioned in the earnings press release, was $3.1 billion and total debt outstanding was $4.1 billion, including approximately $2.6 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $1.5 billion of Wynn Macau debt.

Yahoo

No

YHOO

$15.00

$16.14

$18.02

$9.42

+7%

Read the "AOL: From LOL to OMG" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Microsoft from December 2009.

Revenue is off 12%. Price to earnings ratio is still the highest in the space, at 32 on 11.30.09.

Recently Deleted in 2008/2009:
Fannie Mae was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on 6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on 8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with 75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction). Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on 10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09. First Solar was deleted on 8.13.09 with 33% gains. KB Home with 74% gains and Toll Brothers with 51% gains on 10.01.09.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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NataliePace.com Calendar:

New Year. New You. New Life. New Outlook. All because of the wisdom and opportunities – many free – you’ll find in the Calendar Section.


The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.  Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.

See below for just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar section at NataliePace.com.

Women’s Conference, Sydney, Australia
Wednesday-Friday, January 6-8, 2010
Women’s Education Worldwide 2010 Conference. Empowering Women: The Economic Imperative.

Want to Be a Bestselling Author?
Wednesday, January 6th, 2010
9:00AM through 9:30AM
Join bestselling author Chellie Campbell in Natalie Pace’s BlogTalkRadio.com show to discuss the business of books. Learn what publishers are looking for and how to get the platform necessary to get a book deal and create a blockbuster hit!

The Hot Amazon Songstress
Wednesday, January 13th, 2010
9:00AM through 9:30AM
Meet the cute Amazon songstress in the delightful Amazon Kindle commercial. Discover how she wrote a song and shot a commercial in a weekend that won the hearts of Amazon execs and customers alike! Join actress/singer/songwriter Annie Little in Natalie Pace’s BlogTalkRadio.com show.

 

Solar Power Conference, Las Vegas, NV
Wednesday-Thursday, January 20-21, 2010

Driving the development of large-scale solar power projects.

Tapping Your Potential with Michael Bernard Beckwith
Friday, January 22nd, 2010
7:30 p.m. PT
An Evening with Michael Bernard Beckwith at the Agape International Spiritual Center in Culver City, California. Tap into You: Discovering Your Limitless Potential.

FOMC Meeting
Tuesday, January 26th, 2010
8:00AM through 5:00PM
The Federal Reserve Board governors meet for two days (on the 26th and 27th) to determine how to stimulate the American economy.

Clinton Global Initiative University Conference, Miami, FL
Friday, April 16-18, 2010
This 3-day event is one where students work hand-in-hand on global issues, and even get their hands dirty on a community service project. Of course, doing this alongside Prez. Clinton and a few celebrity friends, like Brad Pitt, doesn't hurt! You must apply with a proposal to be accepted. Act fast!


VISION: To build a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars, radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news, information and education, presented in an entertaining format, across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com, P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350 or 1-866.476.7442 (toll-free telephone number).

NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service, and does not operate or act as one.