TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.7 Issue 11, November 1st, 2010
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"With the foreclosure fraud cases, we have two actors that are
not blameless here: The homeowner, who is in default, and the
banks/securitizers, that failed to do the document creation and
title management correctly. Judges in civil cases do not want
to see an absurd outcome. Rewarding either the homeowner (free
house!) or the lenders (no penalty for massive screw ups!) would
offend those principles of equity and fairness. What might be
a just outcome in these cases? An example of a possible fix in
a full-blown litigation might be for the court to order the mortgage
modified to the current equity value of the home, so that it,
a) punishes the lenders who failed to do their proper legal work
on the documents but, b) does not give a home to a defaulted homeowner
for free. The odds would be that the homeowner still gets foreclosed
on, but does not owe additional moneys to the bank."
Barry Ritholtz,
The
Big Picture blog.
|
|
|
Are Diamonds
or Scrapbooking a Girl’s Best Friend?
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
a Photo
Stock Report Card.
Pass a magazine
stand, and you might think diamonds are a girl’s best friend. And,
in most cases, you’re right. "Someone" (The media? Hollywood?
The diamond industry?) has done a spectacular job of marrying the
idea of "love" with "precious" stones. And chances
are high that if your special girl opens a gift and sees a diamond,
she’ll gasp and her eyes will light up as she breaks into a grin.
But there are
women who claim they’d rather have stock than rocks as a gift. In
past surveys, stocks, cash and vacations ranked higher than diamonds
as the gift most desired by women! Which brings me to the point
of mentioning gifts this early in the holiday season – before Thanksgiving.
One of the top gainers on Wall Street this Halloween was a little
company that started out targeting scrapbookers, but recently expanded
into home décor.
Shutterfly,
an online photo storage and photo product company, saw its share
price soar 17% on October 28, 2010, after announcing that earnings
had increased 21% in the 3rd quarter. What’s all the
fuss about? Shutterfly, Snapfish and Kodak have created a whole
new marketplace for all those adoring yuppie parents who want wall
art of their little devils. Now, you can turn your J-Pegs into holiday
cards, photo albums, scrapbooks and even posters. Entrepreneurs
are also using these online services to create low-cost, high quality
marketing materials.
Other recent
major announcements for Shutterfly include:
- New Home
Décor options for photos of your family, including canvas
art, desktop plaques, wall decals and more.
- Partnership
with AYSO to create free Shutterfly websites for new soccer teams.
- Named to
the Top 25 Companies (medium sized) to work for in America by
Entrepreneur.com™.
- New Shutterfly
iPad application
- Retail partnership
with CVS and Walgreen’s expanded
- New partnership
with Best Buy
Shutterfly
is moving into the retail space where Kodak used to be the only
player in town, and online, users turn to Shutterfly more often
than Snapfish or Kodak for their photo books and photo sharing.
According to Alexa.com’s ranking system, Shutterfly is the 445th
most popular site in the United States, with Snapfish at 750 and
KodakGallery at 1,089.
Shutterfly is
not in Google territory in terms of traffic, but Shutterfly’s revenue
growth is. Revenue growth of 21% is a noteworthy trend for a small
cap publicly traded company, especially during a time when most
stores are slashing their prices to attract buyers and deflation
is a national concern. By comparison, Kodak is losing market share,
with sales down 11% in the 2nd quarter of this year.
Snapfish, which is owned by Hewlett-Packard, posted 9% increase
in earnings for its division in the 3rd quarter.
Shutterfly is
on track to post more than $300 million in sales for 2010. Sales
and growth like that could put Shutterfly on the acquisitions list
for any one of a number of retail, social networking and/or technology
companies that have seen sales stall during the last few years.
And, fortunately, Shutterfly’s executive team is experienced enough
to translate the company’s momentum into a great exit strategy for
investors.
Shutterfly’s
board and executives were instrumental in creating some of the biggest
success stories on Wall Street. Shutterfly’s President and CEO Jeffrey
Housenbold hails from eBay, where he was Vice President of Business
Development and Internet Marketing Acquisition. Housenbold was awarded
the 2006 Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year in the Retail
and Consumer Products category for the Northern California region.
Chief Technology Officer Neil Day was part of the founding team
of WalMart.com. Shutterfly’s non-executive board chairman is Philip
Marineau, the former President and CEO of Levi Strauss. Before Levi
Strauss, while Mr. Marineau was at Quaker Oats, he built the Gatorade
franchise into a billion dollar brand.
So, Shutterfly
is definitely shaping up as the diamond of the scrapbooking industry,
but is the company stock a real sparkler? Actually, after the run-up
at the end of October, Shutterfly stock is the more expensive, from
a price to earnings ratio perspective, than Tiffany. Tiffany’s forward
P/E is 17, while Shutterfly’s is 58. Shutterfly’s share price just
set a new 52-week high, up to $30/share from the low earlier this
year of $13.76.
So, what should
you get that special girl this holiday season – stock (Shutterfly)
or a rock? I’m the kind of girl who likes it all. How about a diamond
choker AND some Shutterfly stock (as soon as it goes on sale)?
Shutterfly was
added to the Watch List on 10.28.10. Looks like a great addition
to a rockin’ stock portfolio, when purchased at a lower price. Click
to review a Photo
Stock Report Card.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity
radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed
to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist,
she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace,
on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Will the Earnings
of Women Overtake Those of Men?
by Dr.
Gary S. Becker.
During
the past two decades the education of women has been booming in
practically all countries. Larger fractions of young women than
young men are enrolled in universities in countries as culturally
and economically diverse as Brazil, China, and Iran. In the United
States, about 57% of the current graduates of four year colleges
are women, while women receive 60% of all the master’s degrees.
Note the radical change since 1970 when women received only 40 %
of the degrees from four-year colleges. A recent report shows that
American women are now even getting more PHD degrees than men, although
the proportion varies a lot by field. Women receive only about one
fifth of all engineering doctorates, and one quarter of all doctorates
in computer science and mathematics, but they are getting a majority
of the doctorates even in health sciences and biology.
Since earnings
are on average strongly related to education levels, a natural issue
to consider is the current and future effects of these trends in
college enrollment and graduation rates on the earnings of women
compared to men. In particular, will the average earnings of women
begin, before long, to exceed that of men -- after being so far
behind in the past?
In fact, most
countries have experienced sharp reductions in the gender gap in
hourly earnings during the past several decades. Again, to use the
United States as an example, in 1980 the median weekly earnings
of women who worked full time was a little over 60% of the median
weekly earnings of full-time men. By 2009, that ratio was just slightly
below 80 percent. For younger women, the trends are larger and more
dramatic. The ratio of the weekly earnings of fulltime women aged
25-34 to that of men of the same age was only 69% in 1980, but this
ratio rose to almost 89% in 2009. The change in the gender earnings
gap was also quite large for men and women aged 35-44 years old.
The gender gap in earnings at ages 25-44 are relevant for predicting
future trends in this gap, since these ages incorporate the effects
on earnings of the growth in recent years in the education of women
relative to men. These age groups also incorporate the effects of
the greater education of women on their commitment to working.
Some simple,
although rough, calculations provide an indication of the possible
magnitude of the effect of the growth in the education of women
on the gender gap in earnings. Assume that men and women are only
either college graduates or high school graduates, and that the
average college graduate who is working full time earns on average
about 60 percent more than the average full time high school graduate
of the same sex. To incorporate the gender gap in education, I assume
that about 40% of women graduate a four-year college compared to
only 26% of men.
If men and women
of the same education received the same earnings, the assumed greater
propensity of women to receive a college education would imply that
the average earnings of women would exceed the average earnings
of men by about 8%. This is a sizable reversal of the usual gender
gap in earnings. Of course, a more realistic calculation would recognize
that even full time working women of a given number of years of
schooling typically earn less than that of full time working men
with the same years of schooling. If the gender gap in earnings
of men and women with the same schooling years were 15%, than the
average woman would earn about 11% less than the average man; on
the other hand, if this earnings gender gap were 10%, than the gender
gap in average earnings would only be 4%.
Of course, many
other factors in addition to years of schooling affect the earnings
of women and men. Some women do not work in order to stay home to
take care of their children, although the fraction of women who
are full time homemakers has sharply declined during the past several
decades, and college educated women are more likely to work than
are less educated women. In addition, even full time women work
fewer hours per week and fewer weeks per year than full time men,
again mainly because women typically try to combine work with spending
time caring for their children. These considerations help explain
why the average earnings of women are below the average earnings
of men with the same years of schooling.
On the other
side of the ledger, teen age girls are less likely to drop out of
high school than are teen age boys, and the earnings of high school
dropouts are quite low. Moreover, as I showed at the beginning of
this discussion, American women are also more likely to receive
post-graduate degrees, and persons with advanced degrees tend to
earn a lot more than persons with just four years of college.
Although the
average earnings of full time women have not yet overtaken that
of full time men, as we have shown, the gender earnings gap has
narrowed substantially. Indeed, in about 30% of all American households
with two earners, wives are already earning more than their husbands.
Moreover, if the gender gap in education continues to widen, it
may not be long before the average earnings of fulltime women does
exceed that of men. This would mark a culmination of a remarkable
reversal of the gender gap not only in education but also in earnings.
About
Gary Becker:
Dr.
Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department
of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business,
The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in
1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George
W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.
To keep
track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit
his website
and blog.
|
|
The
Right Way to Lay People Off.
by Ben
Horowitz, partner Andreessen Horowitz.
"I’m tryin’
to right my wrongs,
But it’s funny them same wrongs helped me write this song"
—Kanye West
 |
| Ben Horowitz. |
Shortly after
we sold Opsware to Hewlett-Packard, I had a conversation with the
legendary venture capitalist Doug Leone of Sequoia Capital. He wanted
to hear the story of how we went from doomed in the eyes of the
world to a $1.6B outcome with no recapitalization. After I took
him through the details including several near bankruptcies, a stock
price of $0.35/share, unlimited bad press and 3 separate layoffs
where we lost a total 400 employees, he was most amazed by the layoffs.
He said that during his over 20 years in the venture capital business,
he’d never seen a company recover from consecutive layoffs and achieve
a billion dollar plus outcome. He said that he’d bet against that
every time and wanted to know how I did it.
Since my only
experience was the great exception, I needed more information. I
asked him why all the other startups failed. He replied that the
layoffs inevitably broke the company’s culture. After seeing their
friends laid off, employees were no longer willing to make the requisite
sacrifices needed to build a company. He said that although it was
possible to survive an isolated layoff, it was hugely unlikely that
a company would experience great success. He added that building
a highly valuable business after 3 consecutive giant lay offs accompanied
by horrible prominent press coverage (we got taken apart with cover
stories in both the Wall Street Journal and Business Week)
was a complete violation of the laws of venture capital physics.
Naturally, he wanted to know how we did it. After thinking about
it for the last couple of years, here’s my answer Doug.
In retrospect,
we were able to keep cultural continuity and retain our best employees
despite multiple massive layoffs, because we laid people off the
right way. This may sound nutty—how can you do something that’s
fundamentally wrong in "the right way?" Here’s how.
Step
1: Get your head right
When
a company fails to hit its financial plan so severely that it must
fire the employees that it went to great time and expense to hire,
it weighs heavily on the chief executive. During the first layoff
at our company, I remember being forwarded an email exchange amongst
a group of employees. In the exchange one of our smarter employees
wrote: "Ben is either lying or stupid or both." I remember
reading that and thinking: "definitely stupid." During
a time like this, it is difficult to focus on the future, because
the past overwhelms you—but that’s exactly what you must do.
Step
2: Don’t delay
Once
you decide that you will have to lay people off, the time elapsed
between making that decision and executing that decision should
be as short as possible. If word leaks (which it will inevitably
do if you delay), then you will be faced with an additional set
of issues. Employees will question managers and ask whether or not
a layoff is coming. If the managers don’t know, they will look stupid.
If the managers do know, they will either have to lie to their employees,
contribute to the leak, or remain silent, which will create additional
agitation. At Loudcloud/Opsware, we badly mismanaged this on our
first layoff, but sharply corrected things on the next two.
Step
3: Be clear in your own mind about why you are laying people off
Going
into a layoff, board members will sometimes try to make you feel
better by putting a positive spin on things. They might say: "This
gives us a great opportunity to deal with some performance issues
and simplify the business." That may be true, but do not let
that cloud your thinking or your message to the company. You are
laying people off because the company failed to hit its plan. If
individual performance were the only thing at issue, then you’d
be taking a different measure. Company performance failed.
This distinction is critical, because the message to the company
and the laid off individuals should not be: "This is great,
we are cleaning up performance." The message must be: "The
company failed and in order to move forward, we will have to lose
some excellent people." Admitting to the failure may not seem
like a big deal, but trust me, it is.
"Trust
me." That’s what a CEO says every day to her employees. Trust
me, this will be a good company. Trust me, this will be good for
your career. Trust me, this will be good for your life. A layoff
breaks that trust. In order to rebuild trust, you have to come clean.
Step
4: Train your managers
The
most important step in the whole exercise is training the management
team. If you send managers into this super uncomfortable situation
with no training, most of them will fail.
Training starts
with a golden rule: managers must lay off their own people.
They cannot pass the task to Human Resources or a more sadistic
peer. You cannot hire an outsourcing firm like the one in the movie
Up in the Air. Every manager must layoff his own people.
Why so strict?
Why can’t the more confrontational managers just handle this task
for everyone? Because people won’t remember every day that they
worked for your company, but they will surely remember the day that
you laid them off. They will remember every last detail about that
day and the details will matter greatly. The reputations of your
company and your managers depend on you standing tall, facing the
employees who trusted you and worked hard for you. If you hired
me and I busted my ass working for you, I expect you to have the
courage to lay me off yourself.
Once you make
it clear that managers must layoff their own people, be sure to
prepare them for the task:
- They should
explain briefly what happened and that it is a company rather
than a personal failure.
- They should
be clear that the employee is impacted and that the decision is
non-negotiable.
- They should
be fully prepared with all of the details of the benefits and
support that the company plans to provide.
Step
5: Address the entire company
Prior
to executing the lay off, the CEO must address the company. The
CEO must deliver the overall message that provides the proper context
and air cover for the managers. If you do your job right, the managers
will have a much easier time doing their jobs. When you do this,
keep in mind what Intuit founder Bill Campbell told me—the message
is for the people who are staying. The people who stay will
care deeply about how you treat their colleagues. Many of the people
that you lay off will have closer relationships with the people
who stay than you do, so treat them with the appropriate level of
respect. Still, the company must move forward, so be careful not
to apologize too much.
Step
6: Be visible, be present
After
you make the speech telling your company that you will be letting
go of many them, you will not feel like hanging out and talking
to people. You will probably feel like going to a bar and drinking
a fifth of tequila. Do not do this. Be present. Be visible. Be engaging.
People want to see you. They want to see whether or not you care.
The people who you laid off will want to know if they still have
a relationship with you and the company. Talk to people. Help them
carry their things to their car. Let them know that you appreciate
their efforts.
Acknowledgements
I
would like to say that I came up with all of this on my own, but
in truth there is no way that I could have done it without the help
of my dear friend Bill Campbell. Bill’s help during these times
saved the company. Finally, I again thank all of the wonderful and
dedicated people who worked for Loudcloud that we laid off or transferred
to EDS. I am sure that I speak for everyone who ever worked at Opsware,
when I say, "Thank you for saving our butts."
About Ben
Horowitz
Ben
Horowitz
is the cofounder and General Partner (along with Marc
Andreessen) of the venture capital firm Andreessen
Horowitz based in Menlo Park, California. Ben was CEO of LoudCloud
(a cloud service provider), which became Opsware, and then sold
to Hewlett-Packard for $1.6 billion.
Editor’s
Note: Opsware
was the 2004 Company of the Year in our ezine. Here’s a link to
that original article.
|
|
Get
Out Of Debt.
by
Natalie Pace.
6
tricks to outwit that 28% interest rate.
Yes! There is
a way to get out of debt, even when it’s ballooning by 28% every
month. And it’s more beautiful and fun than you think – though it
will require dramatic changes. (Cutting out café lattes doesn’t
really thin out your waste line when interest on your debt is
heftier
than your car payment.) Below are six quick tips that will change
your life forever, so that you can go from living hand to mouth
to a pocket full of dreams – and the means to make them real.
- Open
up a 401K, IRA, etc. NOW and put 10% of your income on
auto-deposit into that plan. You might think you have to pay down
debt first and then start building up your assets, but the opposite
is the case. In order to get out of debt, you must develop the
habit of earning and saving and increasing your asset/debt ratio.
This helps to negotiate better terms for your debt and pay it
off sooner, at a much lower price. Also, your retirement plans
cannot be attached by your creditors – even if you declare bankruptcy.
And unlike insurance plans and annuities, the retirement money
is yours to keep, even if you have to change the amount you are
depositing each month. Additionally, unlike insurance plans and
annuities, you can invest in any fund or publicly traded company
you desire, or you can keep it all safe in an FDIC-insured money
market, if that is what you need to feel safe for now, while you
educate yourself on investing. (Annuities and insurance plans
are not FDIC-insured, and are really investing in one company
– the insurance company.)
- Health
Savings Accounts. Are you paying astronomically high monthly
premiums for your health insurance? If you’re healthy, opting
for a higher deductible health insurance plan, combined with a
health savings account (to cover the deductible and co-pay costs
in the event of a catastrophe) might be a better choice. Health
savings accounts work like retirement accounts. The money you
save each year by being healthy and not needing medical care becomes
yours to keep. The HSA is tax-deductible. The money can be invested
in stocks, bonds and money markets. And the gains/interest you
earn from the investments in the HSA are not taxed. To learn more
about HSAs,
visit IRS.gov.
- Earn
More Income. Believe it or not, points one and two are
two great ways to earn more income. Instead of spending/wasting
that dough, you are 1) saving it, and 2) it has a chance to grow
when you invest it using sound investing strategies. Also, is
it time to ask for that raise, or to put the feelers out for a
better job/position? Do you need to downsize by leasing out your
oversized home for extra income, and buying something more suitable
and efficient? Get creative. With more assets and more income,
you can negotiate better terms and/or pay off your debt altogether.
- The
Thrive Budget. Have you been on the struggling to survive
budget? The trying to squeeze life into the dregs left over after
all my bills are paid budget? If so, you’re probably bankrupt
in fun, in addition to being in debt. The right answer is to get
your basic needs expenses down to 50% of your income. Yes. You’ll
need to get creative. And yes, you’ll need to make big changes.
You cannot cut out café lattes and expect to get out of
debt. It hasn’t worked up until now, has it?
- Put
Your Debt on a Payment Plan. If your debt is out of control
and escalating with the outlandish 28% interest rates that credit
card companies are charging, then call the credit card company
and set up a payment plan that works for your current budget.
Tell them you’ll call again in six months to discuss a new plan.
If you have done steps 1-4, then you are already on a course that
will get you out of debt, though it will take some time to correct
a lifestyle that was previously out of control. The only way out
of debt is to increase your income and put in a budget that is
consistent with thriving and within the parameters of what you
are earning.
- Reduce
Expenses. How you can get creative about reducing your
expenses? Single moms have been using CoAbode.org
to find one another. By teaming up, they can get a bigger home
in a better neighborhood, carpool, share home expenses, including
child care and generally get twice as much value for their time
and money. The beauty about this is that when you get the big-ticket
items (like housing, car, insurance) under control, you are naturally
creating more money for fun, for family and for charity – all
the things that make life worth living. Depriving yourself to
the brink of breakdown and then overspending in a retail therapy
session only makes the problem worse – as you now know!
Join me
on my BlogTalkRadio.com show to discuss this further and get real
answers to your questions on just how to start thriving when your
interest payments are burying you alive! The Get
Out of Debt Show is scheduled for Tuesday, November
9, 2010 at 6:00 p.m. PT. Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305. Log on
to: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nataliepace.
If you miss the show, it is available for playback on demand 24/7
and you can also download it as a FREE pod cast.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity
radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed
to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist,
she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace,
on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
|
|
Building Trust and
Providing Unconditional Love:
by Karen
Kendrick.
a
Mentor’s Journey.
When I first
started mentoring Truphena, she was going through many behavioral
challenges at high school, and had received disciplinary action.
She had lost both parents by the time she was 11 years old.
She was a C student who was struggling in most of her courses.
Our initial
letters were focused on introducing ourselves in terms of our families,
interests, routines, and information about our respective countries
and communities. I feel that the most important turning
point was when I turned the "conversation" to a much more vulnerable,
personal level. I talked about some of my own feelings about what
was happening in my daily life, to build trust and serve as a role
model about how to share more deeply.
I also started
providing a lot of unconditional love, support, and inspiration
to her for her accomplishments, her efforts at working hard, and
her sharing with me. It soon became apparent to me that she
was absolutely thriving on the compliments and support that she
was getting, and that her self-confidence was improving rapidly. I
really believe that her primary growth has come from hearing from
someone regularly that she was loved, that she was worthy, and that
she could succeed.
I had underestimated
that the unconditional encouragement many of us get from our parents
was missing in her life. She needed to hear consistently how beautiful,
loving, and courageous she was. Using phrases like "I love
you", "my dear girl", "my sweet Truphena" were huge boosts that
seemed to play a huge part in her opening up to me and talking much
more authentically about her concerns, her fears, her dreams, her
challenges. Her behavioral issues at school disappeared quickly
and she soon seemed much more focused on doing her best in school,
sharing her grades, talking about her family concerns, etc.
As Truphena
prepares to leave St. Martin’s school to start her new life in college,
her biggest fears are around the transition out of her familiar
surroundings and adapting to the academic challenges of her new
school. Much like any college freshman, the change is exciting,
but also daunting. Unlike most of us, who have had our parents go
with us to the school, help us get settled in our "dorm",
walk through our schedule of classes, etc., Truphena will not have
that same support in the normal way. That is why I feel a special
need to talk with her more frequently (about once every week) as
she makes this important transition. We are beginning to talk about
what to expect, and I am reinforcing to her that she has made it
this far, throughout all the obstacles she’s had, and how strong
she is.
I expect that
as she gets settled, our conversations will focus much more on ways
to succeed in school, and eventually on entering the job market.
I am hopeful
that the biggest behaviors/skills that Truphena has learned through
the mentoring experience are to: 1) remember she is loved and worthy,
2) remember/ cherish her uniqueness, 3) know that she is strong
and courageous enough to handle life’s situations and accomplish
her dreams.
Mentoring Truphena
has been an extraordinary, life changing experience for me. Seeing
her growth and triumphs, sharing her sorrows and fears, giving her
love and support, and feeling the incredible love coming back from
her, has made me a better person. Seeing how someone who has had
so many challenges and a lack of resources and support thrive when
knowing that someone cares and listens and guides, has taught me
the age-old lesson that love heals and inspires. As you continue
your mentoring journey, I encourage you to take risks, show more
of your deepest self, be creative, and watch as your relationship
blossoms.
Karen Kendrick
is an EVP, Chief Learning Officer, at Allianz Global Investors in
Los Angeles. She started mentoring Truphena Wambui, a student
at St. Martin’s School in Kenya, during her second year of high
school. Today, Truphena is completing her 9-month Microsoft
ICT Course and she recently learned that she is part of a MasterCard
Foundation Scholarship Grant that will enable her to attend Visions
College to study accounting.
Karen Kendrick
is a mentor with the Global
Give Back Circle, a nonprofit organization founded by
Managing Director Linda Lockhart. The Global Give Back Circle (GGBC)
is an Empowerment and Enablement Process whereby disadvantaged girls
are guided, inspired, encouraged and motivated through a Mentoring
Model and Methodology that facilitates Gratitude, Goals and Giving
Back. Kenya's GGBC connects over 300 disadvantaged girls to mentors
from nine different countries, including Kenya. Through a structured
Five-Phase Mentoring Process, that includes Workshops, Journalizing,
Letter Writing and Personal Visits, the girls are guided to articulate
their goals and dreams and supported to make them realities.
Visit the GlobalGiveBackCircle.org
website to sponsor and/or mentor a young woman in Kenya to become
financially and socially independent.
.
|
|
How
to Make $20,000 While You’re On Vacation.
by Natalie
Pace.
 |
| Photo by:
Stacie Isabella Turk. (c) 2008. Ribbonhead.com. Stylist: Melody
White. Art Direction: Arlene Hylton-Campbell |
Woo hoo! The
stock market is on fire! Even better, one of our subscribers (who
has attended two Get Rich and Enrich retreats) is positioned to
make $20,000 while she is on vacation this month. How? I’ll get
to that in just a moment. But before I do, let’s examine whether
or not you should get too excited about the Fall bull run in the
stock market. There’s a saying on Wall Street, "Don’t confuse
a bull market with wisdom." Everyone looks like a genius when
the markets go up. You want to be the genius who does well in any
marketplace – bull or bear -- without having an IV hooked up to
financial television 24/7.
Macro
Trends: Stop and consider the U.S. economy. In the 2nd
quarter we had 1.6% GDP growth (anemic). The advance report on 3rd
quarter GDP growth is 2% (still barely breathing), according to
the Bureau of Economic Analysis. But is that level of growth enough
to push down unemployment and stimulate business and consumer spending?
Not likely. In a speech on Friday, October 15, 2010, Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke stated, "Overall economic growth has
been proceeding at a pace that is less vigorous than we would like."
He also noted, "The pace of recovery has slowed in recent months
and is likely to continue to be fairly modest in the near term."
Remember: On
October 9, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time
of 14,164. By the end of the year, the Dow had dropped over 1000
points and kept dropping through March 9, 2009, when it hit a low
of 6,547. We’ve seen a rally since then that has created a sense
of complacency with investors, but there are economists and money
managers who still believe we can retest that March 2009 low.
Seasonal
Trends: The Santa Rally used to be a predictable seasonal
trend, but that has not been the case in the past decade. On average,
over the past five years, October has posted the worst results of
the year, followed by tepid performance in November and December
and then miserable downtrends in January and February. (For a detailed
analysis of this, read "Spring
Rally" from the April 2010 ezine, volume 7, issue
4.)
Monthly
Returns of the S&P500
|
Month
|
Monthly 1985-1989
|
Monthly
25 years
|
Monthly
10 years
|
Monthly
5 years
|
|
Jan
|
6.67
|
1.38
|
-1.642
|
-2.542
|
|
Feb
|
2.962
|
0.2548
|
-2.654
|
-2.7
|
|
March
|
1.556
|
1.3264
|
1.558
|
1.784
|
|
April
|
0.838
|
1.7072
|
2.368
|
3.662
|
|
May
|
3.376
|
2.3816
|
1.52
|
2.136
|
|
June
|
2.466
|
0.27
|
-1.347
|
-1.922
|
|
July
|
1.596
|
0.7216
|
-0.393
|
1.592
|
|
August
|
1.772
|
0.0332
|
1.099
|
1.606
|
|
Sept.
|
-1.95
|
-0.8592
|
-2.226
|
0.39
|
|
Oct.
|
-2.138
|
0.4168
|
0.201
|
-3.094
|
|
Nov.
|
0.332
|
1.5404
|
1.093
|
0.064
|
|
Dec.
|
2.808
|
2.1352
|
0.79
|
0.746
|
Source: Standard
and Poor’s and NataliePace.com. © 2010
Who killed the
Santa Rally? Hedge funds are the new trillion dollar drivers on
Wall Street, bringing the gifts of volatility and coal in the stocking
of less sophisticated investors during the holiday season. I’d be
cautious, defensive and well diversified for the remainder of this
year, and slightly more optimistic next year – after Valentine’s
Day 2011 – due to a phenomenon known as the Pre-Election Year Rally.
Election
Year Trends: The second year after an election is historically
one of the worst-performers of the election cycle – which is what
2010 is. However, the pre-election year is historically the strongest
year of the four-year cycle. So, 2011 might be a fun year for savvy
investors.
Election
Year Trends of the S&P500
|
Period
|
Election Years
|
Year after election
|
2 years after election
|
Pre-election years
|
|
1970-2009
|
9.366
|
9.957
|
4.467
|
22.12
|
|
1994-2009
|
-3.065
|
13.21
|
5.8975
|
23.1975
|
|
2000-2009
|
-11.74
|
6.4933
|
-3.155
|
17.085
|
Source:
Standard and Poor’s and NataliePace.com. © 2010
Bottom
Line: With hedge funds driving, who knows how reckless the
markets can get during the holiday party season. Better to protect
yourself, enjoy your gains and take profits early. Your best bet
is a safe/diversified nest egg, quarterly rebalancing, avoiding
the bailouts and companies with high debt, adding in the hot industries
and learning what’s safe in an environment where bonds, bond funds
and Treasury Bills are the next disaster waiting to happen. Sound
complicated? Read You
Vs. Wall Street and attend the February 2011 Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat to discover that it is easy-as-a-pie
chart!
And that, my
friends, is the way to make $20,000 while you’re on vacation.
True
Story:
Earlier
this year, a woman attended my retreat. She’d inherited money and
that money was her sole income. At the rate she was going through
it, she’d be broke in just three years! She wanted to start learning
how to protect the principal and grow the nut. So, she came to the
retreat and over the course of three days, researched and selected
which ten funds she was most interested in investing in, while also
learning how much to keep safe and where "safety" can
be found these days. (Don’t think it’s in bonds, bond funds and
Treasury bills!)
Next, she took
a look at what she was currently invested in, and realized that
she was way over-invested in gold and Australian currency. When
you have too much of any one asset class you are vulnerable to the
boom/bust cycles, whereas when you have a diversified plan, you
can rebalance in order to maximize your profit taking and purchasing
at the best prices.
In order to
implement the new diversified strategy, which included gold and
Australia but wasn’t over-concentrated there, she needed to trim
back on what she had and start adding some safety and variety. She
didn’t want to be watching her portfolio every day, so she picked
her funds and safe assets, and then set up her purchases with limit
orders (the price she was willing to pay for each asset). This was
pretty simple. For the funds she wanted to purchase, she looked
at the five year trend and set her buy orders at or near the 52-week
low. Yes, it would take awhile for the orders to kick in, but in
the meantime her money was at a brokerage that offered an FDIC insured
money market account. So, she would be safe, while she set up the
diversified plan.
At the time,
her gold fund, GLD, was trading at about $103.50/share. She wanted
to keep some of the fund and capture some great gains, so she set
the sell order at 30% gains, which was $135/share. This felt a little
foreign and out of reach to her because she’d never made gains before
and wasn’t this a little too high? Maybe it should be $120 or $115?
But, in truth, she wanted a big win on this stock and she was pretty
confident that it would continue to perform for her (which was also
why she wanted to keep a slice of her nest egg pie invested in the
fund -- even after she took some profits).
In the meantime,
this woman set up a vacation and was set to leave the country for
most of the month of October. The day she boarded the plane for
Australia, the gold fund was still about $10 below her limit order
of $135, but it was starting to trend upward. Last week, while she
was on vacation, the fund topped out at $134.85, just 15 cents shy
of the mark, and it appears almost certain (nothing is certain on
Wall Street) that this order will fulfill before Thanksgiving, providing
a whole new, deeper appreciation for holidays!
How
to Make $20,000 While You’re On Vacation.
- Refer to
page 92 of You
Vs. Wall Street to see the general outline of
a diversified nest egg.
- Read You
Vs. Wall Street to discover how to avoid the bailouts
and add in hot industries.
- Attend a
Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat with Natalie Pace to learn
how to evaluate funds and select the funds for your nest egg.
- Purchase
your funds at or near the 52-week low.
- Set your
sell prices at pre-determined profit-taking positions.
- Follow your
plan and rebalance quarterly or annually, making sure that your
nest egg pie chart always looks safe and diversified.
- Go on vacation.
- The news
works in your favor, as your buy low/sell high orders kick in.
VOILA! $20,000
profit while you’re on holiday!
Please note
that the Nov. 2010 Get
Rich Retreat sold out in 24 hours. If you’re interested
in attending the February 2011 Retreat, please call 866-476-7442
NOW to ensure that you receive the lowest price and are guaranteed
a seat.
Switching
from blind faith to wisdom
It’s
not that hard to switch your thinking from fear that you’re going
to lose everything to faith that you can become wise and rich. It’s
not more time spent. If you think of all the time you spend worrying
about money, you know that getting smart about investing is actually
going to take less time. And then, you’ll be in a position to earn
money while you sleep… and vacation…
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity
radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed
to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist,
she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace,
on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
How
to Overcome Fear.
by
Alvin Tam.
 |
| Alvin Tam. |
Fear
grows like an insidious virus, first scratching the surface of the
polished veneer of your confidence like an innocent itch, then nestling
deeper and deeper into your well of courage, until finally, it violently
throttles your entire being, restlessly taunting you with nightmares
of train wrecks, snakes, and ghosts.
Or
not.
Stopping
the spread of fear happens in minute, small increments. Occasionally,
you might be able to crack the glass ceiling by hurdling yourself
upwards through adversity in one Herculean leap of faith – but more
commonly, you’ll take it one step at a time. The changes will be
small, barely noticeable, but will create long-lasting results.
The
trick to stopping the spread of fear is to recognize the subtle
masks that fear wears. Fear in our daily lives does not usually
manifest itself as hooded terrorists with machine guns, rapists
wielding machetes, or killer viruses that annihilate entire cities
in a day. Fear makes its stealthy appearance through the back door
with comments disguised as cynicism, sarcasm, and anger.
Perhaps
you’ve been told on your birthday that "You’re only a few years
from being over the hill." Or the day after you were married,
you were warned that, "The honeymoon is now over." Maybe
you have kids now and recall your friends predicting the demise
of your romantic life. The tone of cynicism and sarcasm is thick
and pervading, and you probably waived off their nauseous comments
with a polite smile or even a forced laugh.
Don’t
let their heedless jeers sink in though. The moment you are bombarded
with petty cynicism and sarcasm, you have a choice: accept the profanity
or reject it. Societal standards make it permissible to be victims
of thoughtless jokes without realizing that the actual force behind
this low-level commentary is fear. It could be fear about growing
old, losing physical capabilities, or never being able to experience
again the glory days of youth. It could be fear about not being
able to sustain a long-term relationship, ending in divorce, or
defiling your commitment with your wanderlust ways of bachelorhood.
Regardless of what the fear is about, recognize that others may
attempt to project their unspoken shadows unto you, subtly taking
you down with their sinking ship. Misery likes company.
You
can stop fear when you are able to recognize the mask. Cynicism
and sarcasm almost always reflect a deeper, hidden anxiety that
spews out in random, uncontrolled bursts, like a scalding geyser
blowing out of a narrow fissure. The dramatic eruptions on the surface
distract us from the mounting friction below.
Your
course of action is non-action. To not react, respond, or partake
in the game of cynicism and sarcasm is to effectively reject it
and reinforce your ability to safeguard your beliefs, your intentions,
and your dreams. You become stronger, more confident, and courageous.
These qualities do not call forth massive effort, but require you
to develop greater awareness so that you can be non-reactive.
Where
do you encounter cynicism and sarcasm? Perhaps your workplace has
a self-appointed comedian whose mission is to slay his colleagues
with senseless verbal jabs. The media is also inundated with false
alarms, phony pundits, and bogus claims. Look around you with your
radar set for cynicism and sarcasm, and you’ll see that this seemingly
benign and normal behavior is everywhere.
Anger
is a step up in intensity from sarcasm and cynicism but still functions
most of the time to hide a deeper fear. This is not the kind of
anger that spontaneously erupts in self-preservation – a car swerving
toward you, a threatening gesture made against your children, or
a stalking figure following you in dark, deserted alley. This is
the brewing, simmering kind, the type of anger that maliciously
oozes out to incinerate happiness, optimism, and well-being.
Anger
begets anger, and the angered becomes the perpetrator. The vengeful
cycle is closed and the flames of battle spark while both parties
completely miss the point. What is the point? Neither one has realized
that the fuel for their anger is fear.
When
you recognize that your anger, or another’s anger draws its strength
from fear, you diminish the intensity of your rage. Sometimes your
anger even completely disappears. The key to transforming
anger is understanding the underlying source of its fiery façade.
Beneath the tantrum lies a smaller, frightened, and humbled inner
kid, one who might have been picked last in gym class to be on the
team, or saw the agonizing collapse of her parents’ marriage.
Maybe
it was the time she was told that she would amount to nothing, or
her first kiss that ended in stony rejection.
Anger is a mask
that fear wears. The next time you are faced with a belligerent
imbecile, indignant and lewd, stop to wonder what he might be afraid
of, not what he’s angry about. Wonder if he was hurt in some way,
if his partner left him, if he just lost his job. Wonder if he had
alcoholic parents, if he was abused as a child, if he grew up in
a tough neighborhood. It doesn’t matter if you are right or wrong
in your hunches; what matters is that you wonder. The more you wonder,
the more you develop compassion. The more you embody compassion,
the easier it is to accept fear. As you begin to accept fear, it
transmutes all by itself and becomes courage. The transmutation
of fear begins with understanding, and finishes with courage.
When
you are able to do this with someone else, try it on yourself. While
it is easy to point fingers, the conclusive test is whether or not
you can see your own fear through your anger.
So stopping
the spread of fear is not really about stopping anything. It’s about
developing awareness of the different masks that fear wears, and
then choosing non-action or compassion. Either way both paths are
more efficient, use less energy, and transmute fear.
Bio
Alvin Tam is the founder of Soul
Acrobats®, an inspirational products company and Acrofit™,
an acrobatic fitness system. He has over 15 years of experience
as a circus artist, stuntman, dancer, actor, and coach and has performed
for Cirque du Soleil, Notre Dame de Paris, and appeared on CSI.
Alvin’s passion is to inspire you to achieve your impossible.
Products
Visit: http://www.soulacrobats.com/products-page/
BOOK:
The Art of Impossible
DVD:
The Acrofit System Level 1, Expressive Yoga for the Soul
|
|
Budget
Like a Rock Star (to Become One).
by Natalie
Pace, author of You
Vs. Wall Street.
How do rock
stars have it all – the hottest dates, coolest clothes and a globetrotting,
jet set lifestyle? It’s not because they are the wealthiest people
on the planet. In the beginning for every night at the Plaza, there
are 364 nights on someone’s couch. Many have one or two signature
clothing pieces – leather pants or sneakers – with little else hanging
in their closet. They are investing in their future, not their basic
needs and doing a lot of other things that you can model to create
dream come true living in your own world.
I’ve known millionaire
investment bankers who felt broke all the time and poets without
any income or trust fund who lived full, rich lives. More than anything,
being a rock star means enjoying your life and feeling optimistic
about your future, no matter how much you earn.
Where are you
investing your time and money? Spending, spending, spending has
a low pay-off for the long term, whereas education has a high return.
Paying off expensive cars, mega homes and credit cards can keep
you so cash poor that you can’t even really enjoy your possessions.
Do you take
vacations? Give to charity? Have fun on a regular basis? How you
invest your time and money determines how rich your experience
of life is, and also how much value that you can give back to the
world (which is directly correlated with your income and your happiness).
Being buried in bills and "surviving" until the end of
the month isn’t the dream come true life anyone would consciously
create. So, get real and get a better plan.
When it gets
right down to it, there are two fundamental rules of the flow of
prosperity that rock stars inherently get – give and receive. Rock
stars give it all onstage and take it all off stage. I’m exaggerating
somewhat, but if you’re treating a rock star to dinner, chances
are: you’re paying. After dinner by the fire, chances are the rock
star is singing.
Many of us are
either too stingy or too giving. The below "rules"
simply help us to achieve more balance.
Another truth
of prosperity and abundance is that every cent you own and every
moment you spend is always an investment. Invest more time in the
bar stool than on the kids’ soccer field and your family might leave
you. Invest more money in looking rich rather than being valuable
and your credit card companies might repossess you. Invest more
time thrashing your guitar into the hotel room wall and driving
intoxicated than you do writing great songs and exercising your
vocals, and your 15 minutes of fame could look more like 15 days
of jail time.
10
Rules of Becoming Rich
My
Thrive Budget™, upon which these rules are based, is outlined
in greater detail in my book You
Vs. Wall Street.
- Give yourself
a raise. 10%
of your net income should go on auto-deposit into your 401(k),
IRA, health savings account, etc. First. Period. It’s tax deductible.
Pay yourself now, or pay the IRS later.
- Be charitable.
Tithe
10% to charity. Fuel your favorite cause with your cash, take
the tax write-off and reap the benefits of helping your community
and networking with others who have like-minded goals! Pay your
favorite charity now, or pay the IRS later. Every rock star, from
Chris Martin to Michael Jackson and Mary J. Blige, knows the value
of this!
- Educate
yourself, your family and others. Education
is the single highest correlating factor with income. Surgeons
make more money than dishwashers, and surgeons who have educated
themselves about investing make greater gains than those who invest
blindly (or not at all). According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
full-time workers without a high school diploma earned $465/week
on average in June of 2009, compared to $1,140 for a Bachelor’s
Degree, and $3,434/week (for male) professionals with a master’s
or higher. Rock stars (and college students) often sleep on a
couch for years, in order to earn double the income for life!
- Have fun.
Health
is wealth. You can’t earn a great living if you can’t get out
of bed. And pleasure is a free endorphin that releases anti-oxidants
that keep you healthy and sexy. What a beautiful reason to have
some fun today!
- Double
your pleasure. Double
your fun budget! Make sure that you are taking 20% of your income
for FUN. You are worth it! I take 10% out in cash and spend it
until it’s gone. The other 10% I save up for a year to do something
really adventurous that I can enjoy with my family and friends.
(In 2009, I spent a month in Italy!)
- Stop complaining.
Some
people say, "I spend my fun money on my home." That’s
cool, but then stop complaining that you don’t take vacations
and start enjoying your home more. Can you have artist salons,
or a front porch bayou Bluegrass party where someone blows on
a jug and another plays spoons? A barbecue and three-legged race?
A monthly yoga potluck dinner? If you’re not having fun, your
retail therapy isn’t working!
- Basic
needs must be under 50%, including taxes. Ha!
Think this is impossible? Guess which ethnic group was the highest
income earner in the U.S. in 2009. Before I reveal the answer,
I want to point out that this group was one of the lowest wage
earners in the U.S. at the turn of the last century. How did one
ethnic group soar from the gutter to the palace so quickly? By
focusing on education and dramatically reducing basic needs expenditures.
If two families had to live in a two-bedroom apartment so that
the kids could go to medical school, they did that. And now, American
Asians make a weekly income that is 21% higher than whites and
almost double the weekly income of blacks and Hispanics in the
U.S.. (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 16, 2009)
- Think
partner, not competitor. Remember
back in the 1970s when malls were created! By teaming up to put
everything you need in one place, all of the retail stores benefitted.
Coachella (and Woodstock before it) puts all of the greatest bands
in one spot for an entire weekend. What can you do to partner
up with your competitors and create a win-win for everyone?
- Dream
bigger. When
John D. Rockefeller went into the oil business, in 1863, no one
dreamed of freeways. When Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry
Page began perfecting online search in nanoseconds, most people
were still on dial-up. When President John F. Kennedy promised
to walk on the moon, it still took a week to mail a letter from
New York to San Francisco. Before John Lennon imagined peace with
Yoko, he imagined taking America by storm with the Beatles. What
great dream do you have? What can you do now to start on the path
of creating it and who can help you with it?
- 21 days
off the grid. Stuck
in a rut? 21 days is all you need to create new possibilities.
If you have never been on a 21-day sabbatical, there is no greater
way to expand your possibilities and your thinking. Whether it
is an Eat. Pray. Love. journey, or an ashram experience,
or a trek to Mt. Everest or training to be the first rock star
to perform on the moon, commit to creating something new and exciting
in your life.
Success
stories
Steve
Jobs, the rock star of Apple Computer and iTunes, slept on the floor
of his friend’s dorm room to crash college calligraphy courses before
founding Apple. The chairman of an $11 billion company once slept
on his parent’s couch while educating himself to make the transition
from football coach to CEO. And one of the richest women in the
world, J.K. Rowling, received public assistance while she created
one of the most beloved stories of all time – Harry Potter.
Bottom Line
So,
sing your song… loudly. Dance as if everyone is watching. They are
… (on Facebook. And Twitter. And YouTube. And BlogTalkRadio…) And
become the rock star of your own dream life.
Take-Away
Suggestions
- Strike a
balance between giving and receiving.
- Take a 21-day
vacation from the status quo. Try the Eternal City (Rome)! You
could use it.
- Dream bigger.
Not everyone writes a #1 song or stars in an Academy-Award winning
film. But everyone does have something unique to give to the world.
- 50% to survive
and 50% to Thrive!
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity
radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed
to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist,
she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace,
on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
|
|
Dirty
(Paper) Work: Foreclosure Mess Gets Messier.
by Liz
Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist,
Charles Schwab &
Co., Inc.
October 18, 2010
Key points
- Moratoriums
on foreclosures, and the reasons behind them, bring back fears
of 2008 all over again.
- The fears
likely cement another round of quantitative easing by the Federal
Reserve.
- Even if "Foreclosure
Gate" blows over, investors shouldn't make too little of a potentially
big problem.
 |
| Liz-Ann
Sonders. |
Having been
optimistic about the economy and the market during the past 18 months
or so, I'm often asked if there's anything that keeps me up at night.
Being a chronic insomniac, the real answer is that nothing and everything
keep me up at night. But, recently, a very large elephant entered
the room: Some are calling it "Foreclosure Gate."
Back in 2006, I had high-confidence conviction that the subprime
mortgage mess would become a broader economic mess. I have less
confidence that today's foreclosure mess will morph into a broader
economic calamity, but we should all be careful about making too
little of it.
A recent report by David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors has been making
the rounds in investment blogs and newsletters, notably in John
Mauldin's latest missive. It cites details from an anonymous source
and is a thorough, and troubling, summary of what may ail us here.
The topic is the buzz of the blogosphere. Before I get to that part
of the story, though, let's review the recent chain of events. (A
shout-out to my friend Ed Yardeni for some of these details.)
Audio:
Liz Ann on the foreclosure mess
Foreclosure
Gate
Last month, the former GMAC, now Ally Bank, announced an investigation
into how its foreclosure paperwork was being processed, and initially
stopped foreclosure proceedings in 23 states. Soon after, other
banks instituted the same moratorium, including Bank of America
and JPMorgan Chase. (As I write this, Bank of America just announced
it was reopening 100,000 foreclosure actions, having found no significant
problems in its procedures, while GMAC is also pushing ahead with
a number of foreclosures.)
Then two weeks ago, President Obama pocket-vetoed a congressional
bill (the Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act), which would
have regulated notarizations on financial documents, and would have
been helpful to the banks' cause.
His reasoning was that if the bill were made law, banks and mortgage
companies could more easily initiate foreclosure proceedings because
the bill required courts to accept out-of-state notarizations. This
would make it more difficult for homeowners to challenge the authenticity
of mortgage documents. The day after the veto, JPMorgan Chase halted
all foreclosures.
Finally, last week, all 50 state attorneys general launched an investigation
into the mortgage-servicing industry. What we're witnessing is the
collision of the banks' attention to efficiency, speed and profitability
and the justice system's attention to due process.
In sum, lending standards were abysmally low, mortgage paperwork
was filed too quickly, and regulatory bodies were asleep at the
switch. When the housing bubble burst, a massive number of foreclosures
hit simultaneously and exposed the system's glaring defects.
MERS mess
The Mortgage Electronic Registry Systems (MERS) was set up in
the late-1990s to monitor a home loan every time it changed parties,
with the purpose of lessening paperwork. The company was formed
and is owned by some of the banking and mortgage biggies, including
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Ally Bank
and Wells Fargo.
As detailed in a recent Bloomberg BusinessWeek article, "Mortgages
Lost in the Cloud," historically, titles and mortgages on property
were officially recorded in county clerks' offices the old-fashioned
way, with paper trails. But this slow process collided with the
era of rapid-fire refinancing and securitization. At the height
of the housing bubble, more than eight million homes were sold,
with most of these loans packaged into securities.
The industry responded to the scale and speed of the market by creating
an electronic overlay—MERS. But, importantly, it lacks the thoroughness,
not to mention legal standing, of the old paper system. And now,
judges are rejecting MERS foreclosures when the company claiming
to hold the mortgage can't produce the note proving it was the creditor.
MERS recently exposed its website to the public and regulators in
order to show the owners of mortgages. However, in many instances,
the mortgage investors weren't disclosed. This muddies the paper
trail and puts in doubt a large percentage of recent foreclosures.
Chain of fools
If you don't know who owns your mortgage, you don't know who
has the right to ask you to leave your house if you stop paying
the mortgage.
Here's the gist of the Kotok report: When a homebuyer signs a mortgage,
the key document is the note, which is the actual IOU. In order
for the mortgage note to be sold or transferred to someone else
(turning it into a mortgage-backed security), the document has to
be endorsed (signed) to the next person. All of these signatures
on the note are called the "chain of title."
If any of these signatures are missing, then the chain of title
is said to be broken. As such, the mortgage note is no longer legally
valid. In other words, the person who took out the mortgage loan
to pay for the house no longer owes the money if he doesn't officially
know the payee.
Alarm bells really started going off when title insurance companies
started to refuse to insure titles. In every sale, a title insurance
company insures that the title is free and clear, that the prospective
buyer is in fact buying a properly vetted house, with its title
in order. This is what prompted the attorneys general to investigate.
Strategic defaults
One serious risk, of course, is that the major title companies
back away from insuring sales of foreclosed properties that involve
MERS.
Another risk is that "strategic defaults" heat up. These are when
individuals stop making mortgage payments even though they can afford
to. More individuals may be encouraged to strategically default
if they perceive a reduced likelihood of being forced out of their
homes. In fact, some companies and websites actually promote strategic
defaults.
Needless to say, a rise in strategic defaults would weigh on the
already-beleaguered housing market because it discourages not only
buyers of homes in foreclosure, but even traditional transactions.
This issue needs some clarity and a solution in short order.
Elephant or mosquito?
No one knows for sure whether the foreclosure mess will morph
into a larger economic calamity akin to what we experienced in 2008
and 2009.
But there are some bright minds that have a sanguine outlook, including
Stan Humphries, the chief economist of Zillow.com. In his blog,
he concludes: "My hunch is that the MERS approach will stand up
to scrutiny and that this current situation will end up being more
of a sloppy record-keeping scandal that should and will be cleaned
up. This will result in a slowdown of foreclosures over the next
30 to 90 days."
But he's realistic, too, going on to say, "If the MERS approach
doesn't survive, I'd be gravely concerned for the near-term stabilization
of the housing market and for the long-term viability of mortgage
securitization."
Another measured perspective comes from someone I know and respect
a lot, Barry Ritholtz, of The Big Picture blog. He's a writer, money
manager and attorney, and believes that there is a legal cure and
that we don't need massive new legislation. Although costly to the
banks, he says that trained people (lawyers and paralegals) need
to look at each mortgage and figure it out, and that it can get
resolved.
He writes,
With the
foreclosure fraud cases, we have two actors that are not
blameless here: The homeowner, who is in default, and the banks/securitizers,
that failed to do the document creation and title management correctly.
Judges
in civil cases do not want to see an absurd outcome. Rewarding
either the homeowner (free house!) or the lenders (no penalty
for massive screw ups!) would offend those principles of equity
and fairness.
What might
be a just outcome in these cases? An example of a possible fix
in a full-blown litigation might be for the court to order the
mortgage modified to the current equity value of the home, so
that it, a) punishes the lenders who failed to do their proper
legal work on the documents but, b) does not give a home to a
defaulted homeowner for free.
The odds
would be that the homeowner still gets foreclosed on, but does
not owe additional moneys to the bank. Since these are very often
uncollectible judgments anyway, the court's judgment can mete
out justice fairly, not give anyone an undeserved windfall, yet
move the cases forward.
That is
but one just solution, and I am confident that most courts have
the sophistication to fashion an appropriate remedy. Courts of
equity (meaning just, fairness) can apply these principles to
avoid ridiculous outcomes.
That doesn't
mean litigation won't ensue or that there won't be significant costs
to the financial sector. Many believe the stock market can't continue
its bullish streak without leadership from financials, but I'd remind
investors that for much of the post-tech bubble period, the stock
market fared quite well without the benefit of tech leadership.
Yesterday's leaders tend not to be tomorrow's leaders.
Cementing QE2?
What the broader market has going for it is the elevated likelihood
of another round of quantitative easing (QE2) by the Federal Reserve
(printing money to buy Treasuries, thereby pushing yields lower
and pushing investors out of Treasuries and into riskier asset classes).
Foreclosure Gate may, in fact, seal the deal that QE2 is coming.
As I noted in a recent
report, I have my qualms about the unintended
consequences of QE2 in the long-term, including the Fed's eventual
exit strategy and heightened inflation risks. But I've also conceded
that it's likely to continue to boost riskier asset classes in the
near-term, including stocks (both domestic and global).
The market is also behaving quite resiliently in the face of the
foreclosure mess. Is it apathy or a signal that this doesn't represent
what the subprime debacle did in 2008? I lean toward the latter
explanation. That said, I do think the market is overbought, and
a consolidation would be refreshing. But momentum remains on the
side of the bulls, as do I.
Important Disclosures
The information provided here is for general informational purposes
only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation
or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned
here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review
an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before
making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice
in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein
from third party providers is obtained from what are considered
reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability
cannot be guaranteed.
Examples provided are for illustrative (or "informational") purposes
only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect
to achieve.
|
|
The Three-Ingredient Recipe for Cooking
Up Profits.
by Natalie
Pace.
Excepted
from You
Vs. Wall Street, published by the Vanguard Press, January
2010.
There
are lots of gurus out there (with mixed credibility) who offer all
kinds of tips and expensive software to evaluate investments. I
offer, instead, a simple, easy-to-use, easy-to-understand recipe
that works for any asset – real estate, stocks, bonds, Beanie Babies,
postage stamps, classic cars and more.
Learning the
formula takes as long as it takes to read my book, You
Vs. Wall Street.
Completing a Stock Report Card™ requires less time than reading
one article. Plus you’ll be making your decision with 10 times the
amount of information! That’s the beauty of wisdom. Same amount
of time and money = with better results.
My Three-Ingredient
Investment Recipe for cooking up profits works every time for any
individual investment. (For nest egg investing, the recipe
is different, but just as easy, and is also outlined in You
Vs. Wall Street.)
Be disciplined
about following the recipe. You need all of the ingredients, and
you must follow the steps in order. Since we all want to vacation
on Cloud 9 before we’re ninety, let’s sharpen your skills and start
cooking.
The
Three-Ingredient Recipe for Cooking Up Profits.
- Start
with what you know and love
- Pick the
Leader
- Buy low;
sell high (easy to say; hard to do)
Step
One: Start With What You Know and Love
The
first ingredient is easy enough. If you want to invest in infrastructure
in India, and you’ve never been there, you have to commit to visiting
India and doing a lot of research before you leap into an investment.
What few people
realize is that trading individual stocks is a tennis match. One
person wins (buys low; sells high) and the other loses (buys high;
sells low). A novice is a sitting pigeon for the master. Imagine
stepping out on the tennis court with Roger Federer and expect to
even see a ball coming at you. Very unlikely. If you don’t know
the first thing about a company or its product and you’re not excited
enough to get savvy, why step on the court and humiliate yourself
with a devastating loss to the pro? This includes investing in gold,
which has become the investment du jour.
Over the years,
I’ve come across a lot of people who say that they don’t know anything
about anything, which is completely untrue. My police officer cousin
found Taser International, my 2003 Company of the Year, which went
on to earn up to 9000 percent gains over the next three years. Whatever
you do for a living gives you an insider’s view of something.
Of course, just
loving the product or the store doesn’t prove the stock is a good
deal or that the company will continue to beat out the competition.
Step
Two: Pick the Leader
Picking the leader requires lining up the key revenue/debt/profitability
data alongside two chief competitors in a Stock Report Card (see
chapter 6 of You
Vs. Wall Street) and then asking
yourself Four Questions (Chapter 5).
The key point
here is that even if you like a designer brand of coffee, that particular
company may not be your taste choice in the future. People could
decide $3 is too much for a cup of coffee. Or a better tasting brand
might show up at a lower price.
Picking the
leader means that you have to take a devil’s advocate approach to
the product that you know and love. There were people who were buying
stock in Worldcom the year that Skype began giving away free long
distance over the Internet. You have to determine whether or not
the product, company, or real estate will be valuable to buyers
in the future. And believe it or not, the Stock Report Card
and Four Questions can do just that, by disciplining you to evaluate
real world data in the context of delivering outstanding product
at a competitive price, which is the best crystal ball on any company’s
prospects – far more effective than trend charts.
Every month,
I go through the exact same research and analysis on a different
sector, employ this exact recipe, ask my four questions, and inevitably
there’s one company that’s leading the pack. And that company is
usually pretty easy to identify because it shines in more than one
category. Better yet: none of these strategies require earning a
Ph.D. in economics or sitting at your computer watching the markets
every day at the crack of dawn. You’ll start mastering this second
step, once you read those chapters in You
Vs. Wall Street.
Once you pick
the leader in a sector, the final determination is simply whether
or not you’re buying for a good price or paying through the nose.
Never pay retail!
Step
Three: Buy Low, Sell High
Buying
low and selling high is completely against human nature. Buying
low means that when everyone is crying Apocalypse, you’re seeing
Opportunity. Selling high means that you’re leaving the party at
midnight (sober), while all the punch drunks are screaming that
the party is going till dawn, and you’re going to "Miss out,
man. If you just hang out a little while longer, imagine how much
more fun you’ll have."
No one has a
crystal ball on when the low and high of an investment will occur,
but there are a number of factors you need to consider before you
make a buying or selling decision.
Calendar
Trends
Seasonal
Rallies (Spring and Santa Rallies)
Back-to-School
and/or Valentine’s Day Stock Sales
Summer
Doldrums
Pre-election
Year Rally
Other
Considerations
Natural
Disasters
Small
Caps for Performance
Large
Caps for Stability
Exchange
Traded Funds versus Mutual Funds
Diversification
and Asset Allocation
Happy
People Make Better Products Faster Cheaper
The Economics
of Freedom
Emerging
Markets
Historical
Performance
These factors
are all discussed in detail in You
Vs. Wall Street.
If you already have some market experience, you might be stunned
to notice that I haven’t included P/E—price-to-earnings ratio—on
this list. Yes, price-to-earnings ratio counts, but the above factors
are far more important to determining the optimum buy/sell time.
When you read the P/E discussion in You
Vs. Wall Street,
you’ll start understanding why.
If you don’t
know price-to-earnings ratio from hieroglyphics, don’t worry. It’s
not difficult to understand "Never Pay Retail" and "Buy
Low, Sell High." It’s pretty easy to find out what the 52-week
high and low prices are or even what the five- and ten-year highs
and lows are, to use as a gauge. Start now with what you do understand,
and accept that you will continue to gain knowledge as you keep
reading and practicing.
Mastering
This Three-Part Recipe—Water Your Money Tree: Your Brain
Write
out the Three-Ingredient Recipe on an index card and stick it up
in your office—or wherever you do your investments—until thinking
about investing this way becomes second nature.
The Bottom
Line
You
already have all of the tools that you need to become successful
in investing. The reason you might have lost money in the past is
that you didn’t pick a winning company, or you didn’t have a disciplined
approach to profit-taking (like the recipe offers), or you didn’t
ask enough questions before jumping in (like the four questions
force you to do), or you simply didn’t have enough information to
step out on the court in the first place.
Investments
are like a mosaic. The more tiles you uncover, the clearer the picture.
If you plunge your head in the sand and rely solely on the plan
of a broker you hardly know, or on a single hot tip, or any other
single piece of the puzzle, don’t be surprised if the picture
never adds up to a winning investment.
If your potential
investment passes all three criteria of the investment recipe, odds
are in your favor to start getting rich the easy way—by following
your wisdom instead of being ruled by hot tips and stomach acid.
Natalie’s
Three Takeaway Tips
1. The
path to investing wisdom is like learning a foreign language. The
words sound like gobbledygook in the beginning, but as you keep
talking, you start understanding more and more words, and soon enough
you can master the language. There’s no shortcut. Just start talking.
2. Investments
are like a mosaic. The more tiles you turn over, the clearer picture
you’ll have of the health of the investment.
3. Picking
the leader in the sector is the most difficult task. It pays to
fill out a Stock Report Card and ask the four basic questions, which
are outlined in Chapters 5 and 6 of You
Vs. Wall Street.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity
radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed
to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist,
she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace,
on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Understanding Mutual
Fund Classes.
Investor
Alert by FINRA.org.
As
an investor, you may have read about Class A, Class B, Class C or
other classes of mutual fund shares. If you are thinking about choosing
one of these classes, it is important for you to understand the
differences between them.
FINRA regulates
broker-dealers and their registered representatives, and we provide
investors with information about securities products and services.
We hope that this communication will answer many of your important
questions about mutual fund classes. If you have more questions,
please consult with your financial adviser.
What
Are Mutual Fund Classes?
A
single mutual fund, with one portfolio and one investment adviser,
may offer more than one "class" of its shares to investors. Each
class represents a similar interest in the mutual fund's portfolio.
The principal difference between the classes is that the mutual
fund will charge you different fees and expenses depending on the
class you choose.
You'll find
a glossary of terms at the end of this document and links to some
of these terms within the document's text .
What
Types of Fees and Expenses Will I Pay?
Like
most investments, all mutual funds charge fees and expenses that
are paid by investors. These fees and expenses can vary widely from
fund to fund or fund class to fund class. Because even small differences
in expenses can make a big difference in your return over time,
we've developed a Fund
Analyzer to help you compare how sales loads, fees and
other mutual fund expenses can impact your return. You can also
check the fee table in the mutual fund's prospectus to find out
about its fees and expenses.
If
You Buy Class A Shares:
Class
A shares typically charge a front-end sales charge. When you buy
Class A shares with a front-end sales charge, a portion of your
dollars is not invested. Class A shares may impose an asset-based
sales charge (often 0.25 percent per year), but it generally is
lower than the charge imposed by the other classes (often 1 percent
per year for B and C shares).
A mutual fund
may offer you discounts, called breakpoints discounts, on the front-end
sales charge if you:
- Make a large
purchase.
- Already hold
other mutual funds offered by the same fund family.
- Commit to
regularly purchasing the mutual fund's shares.
You should ask
your financial adviser whether any breakpoint discounts are available
to you. For more information, read our Investor Alert Mutual
Fund Breakpoints: A Break Worth Taking.
If
You Buy Class B Shares:
Class
B shares typically do not charge a front-end sales charge, but they
do impose asset-based sales charges that may be higher than those
that you would pay if you purchased Class A shares. Class B shares
also normally impose a contingent deferred sales charge (CDSC),
which you would pay if you sell your shares within a certain period,
often six years. For this reason, these shares should not be referred
to as "no-load" shares. The CDSC normally declines the longer your
hold your shares and, eventually, is eliminated. Within two years
after the CDSC is eliminated, Class B shares often "convert" into
lower-cost Class A shares. When they convert, they begin to charge
the same fees as Class A shares.
Class B shares
do not impose a sales charge at the time of purchase. So unlike
Class A purchases, all of your dollars are immediately invested.
But your annual expenses, as measured by the expense ratio, may
be higher. You also may pay a sales charge when you sell your Class
B shares.
If you intend
to purchase a large amount of Class B shares (over $50,000 or $100,000,
for example), you may want to discuss with your financial adviser
whether Class A shares would be preferable. The expense ratio charged
on Class A shares is generally lower than for Class B or C shares.
The mutual fund also may offer large-purchase breakpoint discounts
from the front-end sales charge for Class A shares.
To determine
if Class A shares are more advantageous, refer to the mutual fund's
prospectus, which may describe the purchase amounts that qualify
for a breakpoint discount.
If
You Buy Class C Shares:
Class
C shares do not impose a front-end sales charge on the purchase,
so the full dollar amount that you pay is invested. Often Class
C shares impose a small charge (often 1 percent) if you sell
your shares within a short time, usually one year. They typically
impose higher asset-based sales charges than Class A shares and,
since they generally do not convert into Class A shares, those fees
will not be reduced over time.
Additionally,
in most cases, your total cost would be higher than with Class A
shares, and even Class B shares, if you hold for a long time.
Glossary
of Terms: Fees and Expenses
Contingent
Deferred Sales Charge (CDSC)
This
fee is charged when you sell your mutual fund shares. For example,
if you redeem shares valued at $1,000, and the mutual fund imposes
a CDSC of 1 percent, you would be charged $10 and receive $990.
For B shares, CDSCs normally decline over time and, eventually,
are eliminated after six years from the purchase of those shares.
Expense Ratio
A
measure of the fund's total annual expenses expressed as a percentage
of the fund's net assets. For example, an expense ratio of 1 percent represents
an annual charge to the fund's assets—including your proportional
interest in those assets—of 1 percent every year.
The expense
ratio includes management fees, marketing and distribution fees
(often called 12b-1 fees) and other ongoing fees that are deducted
from a mutual fund's assets. These fees pay for the services of
the mutual fund's investment adviser, the selling advisor or broker,
transfer agent, and for other expenses. Front-end sales charges
and CDSCs are not included in the expense ratio because they are
charged once, and directly to the investor.
The fee table
in the front of a mutual fund's prospectus shows the expense ratio,
front-end sales charges, and CDSCs.
Front-End
Sales Charge
This
fee is charged when you purchase mutual fund shares. For example,
you spend $1,000 to purchase Class A shares and the fund imposes
a front-end sales charge of 5 percent. You are charged $50 on your
purchase and receive shares with a market value of $950. Depending
on the size of your purchase, a breakpoint discount can lower this
sales charge.
Breakpoint
Discounts
A
mutual fund may offer you discounts, called breakpoint discounts,
on the front-end sales charge if you:
- Make a large
purchase.
- Already hold
other mutual funds offered by the same fund family.
- Commit to
regularly purchasing the mutual fund's shares.
Asset-Based
Sales Charges
These
are fees you would not pay directly, but which are taken out of
a mutual fund's assets to pay to market and distribute its shares.
For example, asset-based sales charges can be used to compensate
a broker for the sale of mutual fund shares, for advertisements
and to print copies of the prospectus. Asset-based sales charges
include Rule 12b-1 fees, which are dedicated to these types of distribution
costs.
Additional
Resources
About
FINRA:
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA),
is the largest independent regulator for all securities firms doing
business in the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly
4,800 brokerage firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately
643,000 registered securities representatives.
FINRA believes
investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the
media and public forums, we help investors build their financial
knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand
the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.
|
|
"Welcome to life."
Inspiring Quotes.
by Staff.
Here are just
a few of the most loved quotes on our Facebook page (Facebook.com/NWPace).
We hope they inspire you to live a rich life, while enriching our
world, with the value that only you can bring.
1. The Joy
of Breathing Fresh Air (and Teamwork, Leadership and Never Giving
Up) "Welcome
to life." Chilean President Sebastian Pinera, on greeting each of
33 miners as they were brought to the surface on October 12-13,
2010, after 69 days underground. President Pinera brought together
NASA, Oakley sunglasses, BHP Billiton engineers and more from around
the world to rescue the miners and each and every one was in great
health (considering their horrible ordeal) as they rejoined the
living.
2. The Gifts
of the Gods. "Luscious
half moon hanging low in the sky. Close enough to take a bite."
Natalie Pace, evening of October 27, 2010, when the harvest moon
was hanging so large and low in the sky… Our greatest gifts, including
life itself, are part of the great unknown, and completely ours
for free.
3. The Gift
of Friendship. "A
true friend stabs you in the front." Oscar Wilde.
4. Creating
Your Own Luck. "I
find the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." Thomas Jefferson
5. Making
$#*! Happen. "My
dreams inspire my direction. But my footsteps power me there."
Natalie Pace
6. Ask and
You Shall Receive. "And
so I tell you, keep on asking, and you will receive what you ask
for. Keep on seeking, and you will find. Keep on knocking, and the
door will be opened to you. For everyone who asks, receives. Everyone
who seeks, finds. And to everyone who knocks, the door will be opened."
Luke 11:9-10
7. God Helps
Those Who Help Themselves. "How
often are we expecting our prayers to be fervently answered, when
we are only half-committed to our own salvation? Today, my prayer
is my road map. Whatever I ask of the Gods, I ask of myself, too."
Natalie Pace
8. Trust,
Truth and Communication. "If
I trust you completely, then I require no explanation or communication
of your actions whatsoever, because I know that whatever you are
doing is in my best interest. On the other hand, if I don’t trust
you at all, then no amount of talking, explaining or reasoning will
have any effect on me, because I do not trust that you are telling
me the truth."- Ben Horowitz, partner, Andreessen Horowitz.
9. Call In
Miracles. "Just
make a decision that you will look for what you want to see. It
is not a difficult decision to make, but it can make a big difference
in what you bring into your experience." Jerry & Esther Hicks,
from their Ask
And It Is Given Perpetual Flip Calendar.
10. Yes,
You Can! "I
was a million to one shot, the least likely to succeed. I wasn't
low man on the totem pole, I was under the totem pole, in a sewer,
tied to a rock." Tony Curtis, actor, artist, father, stallion savior,
Academy Award nominee and legend of film. Read more of Tony’s
candid quotes in my exclusive interview with him, from the October
2010 NataliePace.com ezine (volume 7, issue 10).
|
|
2009
Company of the Year Posts Up to 10X Gains.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks Report.
November
1, 2010
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Monday,
1.2.2008
|
Monday,
1.2.2009
|
Monday
1.4.2010
|
Friday,
11.1.2010
|
Gains
2-yr, 1-yr & 8 mo.
|
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 9,034.69
|
Dow: 10,430.69
|
Dow: 11,152.67
|
-14% & +23% & +7%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 1,632.21
|
Nasdaq: 2,294.41
|
Nasdaq: 2,508.97
|
-4% & +54% & +9%
|
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 931.80
|
S&P: 1,115.07
|
S&P: 1,186.62
|
-18% & +27% & +6%
|
Wall
Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547 (3.9.09)
|
14,164 (10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ Composite Index
|
1,114 (10.9.02)
|
5,060.34 (3.10.00)
|
Hot
News on Cool Stocks Important Data
10X
gains on U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ
Outscored the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 40% to 15%, in
2009
NASDAQ
Outscored Gold in 2009, 40% to 26%
81%
of the positions listed in 2008-2010 are in the money. Woo
hoo!
Gold
returns top stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last
10 Years… (see below chart)
Real
Estate Lost -12.4%
in 2009.

Compare those
returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills
and gold over the last 30 years.

Market
Update:
The
most delicious dessert this holiday season is found in the Thanksgiving
horn of plenty, even if it’s not edible. As of Halloween, my 2009
Company of the Year, U.S. Gold, has posted more than 10X gains for
investors who bought in at 50 cents/share, earlier in 2009 when
I highlighted that price as a steal. That means a $1,000 investment
becomes $10,000 and $1,000,000 becomes $10,000,000! U.S. Gold’s
rise to prominence could just be beginning, since the company begins
trading on the New York Stock Exchange on November 2, 2010 and the
Chairman and CEO, Rob McEwen, has a goal of qualifying for the S&P500
by 2015!
The question
is: should you keep hanging on, or should you capture your gains?
What happens if the stock market corrects? Will U.S. Gold fall with
it, or will it run against the tide? When will this exploration
company begin mining and how long will it take to become cash positive?
On October 26,
2010, Rob McEwen issued a statement saying, "With an aggressive
exploration program, two projects moving towards production in Nevada
and Mexico and good trading liquidity, US Gold is well positioned
to take advantage of rising precious metal prices." All of this
is true, however, there is more uncertainty in those statements
than you might think.
Last November
when McEwen joined me on my BlogTalkRadio.com show, he warned that
when companies enter production, their share price can languish
and/or sag for a few years, while additional capital is raised,
permits are filed and governments slow down the company’s push toward
profitability. Also, although McEwen believes gold can break through
$5000/ounce before it begins its pullback, no one really knows how
high gold can go. The International Monetary Fund has already sold
over 200 tons of gold, with plans to sell a total of over 412 tons.
The developed nations, including those with heavy debt and slow
economic growth, like the U.S., the European Central Bank and Italy,
are the biggest horders of gold, and will have pressure to sell
some off at these delightful high prices to help fill in the gaps
of unbalanced budgets. Review the articles listed below for additional
considerations.
Gold
Will Hit $5,000 an Ounce, According to 20-year Veteran Gold CEO
Rob McEwen. by Natalie Pace.
The
Gold Crash of 1980. By Natalie Pace. A Brief History of Gold.
Of course, those
facts are not being touted in the 24/7 gold ads on television. Gold
funds have become the most prolific advertisers on cable television
these days, and that typically fuels the boom market. (Remember
all those Make a Million in Real Estate programs and ads from 2005?)
It definitely feels like gold fever these days!
I don’t believe
the gold party is over yet. Gold continues to attract investors
who are road weary of the U.S. economy. But it will pay to remain
sober while you celebrate the glisten of gold in your investment
portfolio. Make sure that you have a profit-taking and sales strategy
that is designed to capture gains – before this latest boomtown
commodity sinks. For now, U.S. Gold remains on my Hot News on Cool
Stocks list, and I’m holding it in my personal portfolio as well.
The list is updated twice a month, so keep an eye out for news as
it develops.
Banks Are
Still Failing
There
have been 139 bank failures so far in 2010 (as of November 1, 2010),
140 bank failures in 2009 and 25 in 2008. Don’t be seduced by the
banks reporting record earnings! Most of them are fairy tales.
Are We in
a Recovery?
The
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.org) has declared that
the 2007 recession ended on June 2009, however, that doesn’t mean
that the economy is racing to recovery. In the statement issued
by NBER, the Committee reported, "The committee did not conclude
that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or
that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity."
On September 21, 2010, the Federal Open Market Committee released
a press release advising, "Information received since the Federal
Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery
in output and employment has slowed in recent months."
Interested
in Educating Yourself on Investing?
Come
to the February 5-7, 2011 Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat in Santa Monica, California.
Get more information on the home page at NataliePace.com under the
Get Rich and Enrich Retreat banner ad.
Track
Record of our Reporting
While
the markets are still down significantly since their high in October
of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning
track record before, during and after the Great Recession – in bear
and bull market years. 93 positions listed below – 81% --
have delivered impressive gains over the past two years, even while
the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than it
was in 2007 (when it cracked through 14,000)! Only twenty-two
of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting,
which is quite impressive given the market gyrations of more than
7000 point swings since 2008. FYI: If 2010 tracks the most
recent trend, there may not be a Santa Rally this year.
Remember that
the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing
years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice
a year, not trying to market time.)
4 out
of 7 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted up
to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware), up to 215% gains
(Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 10X ROI for U.S. Gold, respectively.
MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s
success with shareholders that year. So five out of seven
Company of the Year selections were superperformers. That’s the
kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street. (I launched
my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company
of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)
Some of my best
picks include: U.S. Gold (UXG) 10X return on investment, Google
(GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu
(SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up
to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in 2008 and 2009 were put
options – on the Cooling Off list -- which is why I added options
training to my 3-day Get Rich and Green Investing Retreat. Look
on the Cooling Off list for details on the incredible gains options
investors enjoyed (and the losses that average investors avoided
as a result of being alerted to the problem) on Wells Fargo, Fannie
Mae, Toll Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more.
The NataliePace.com
ezine was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- 2008
Recession
(Get Safe)
- Trim back
on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Get out of
Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Google
at the IPO! (May 2004)
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
Market
Movers:
The
Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." The next
FOMC meeting takes place on November 2nd and 3rd, 2010. On October
15, 2010, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said, "The
FOMC is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to
support the economic recovery and to return inflation over time
to levels consistent with our mandate." Since interest rates
are at zero, it is likely to be more long-term security purchases,
further increasing the Fed’s balance sheet, above levels that are
consistent with prudence!
Final
Estimate GDP growth rates for 1Q 2010 were 1.7% (down from
advance results of 2.4%), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
1Q 2010 GDP growth was 3.7%.
Advance
GDP growth rates for 3Q 2010 will be released on October 29, 2010
at 8:30 a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall
Street, and the second half of 2010 is expected to be much slower
growth than the first half. Ergo, this could be an ugly day. For
more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1.
FOMC Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the September 21, 2010 FOMC meeting for yourself? You
can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov to read! According to the Committee,
"The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal
funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that
economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization,
subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are
likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds
rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its
existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities
holdings." In other words, the Feds are buying up U.S. Treasury
bills (which otherwise are losing favor on the world marketplace).
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2010-2011 calendar is: November 2-3
(Tuesday-Wednesday), December 14 (Tuesday), January 25-26, 2011
(Tuesday-Wednesday), March 15, 2011 (Tuesday), April 26-27, 2011
(Tues.-Wed.), June 21-22, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), August 9, 2011 (Tuesday),
September 20, 2011 (Tuesday), Nov. 1-2, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), December
13, 2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more:
Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. You
will find great opportunities to attend the most exclusive business
and Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and radio shows and
other educational opportunities – many are FREE! Get more information
on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com.
Don’t miss
the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen
back to any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod
casts and are FREE!
BlogTalkRadio
offers a Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing
questions. Be sure to keep a list of your questions as they come
up, and join our ongoing dialog on peace and prosperity, getting
rich and enriching, green investing, the Thrive Budget and more
on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. This month, we want to get the holiday gift
giving right! Cast your vote on our survey page.
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending)
and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement is scheduled for November 4, 2010 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
(November 18, 2010 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual
stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
ENER1
(HEV) 11.1.10
Federated Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX)
Profit-Taking:
Hoku Corp.
(HOKU) +38%
LDK
Solar (LDK) +226%
U.S. Gold (UXG) 10X ROI
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
Blockbuster
(BLOKA) 10.1.10
ENER1
(HEV) 10.15.10
KLA Tencor (KLAC) 10.1.10
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
11.1.10
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
ENER1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$3.58
|
$3.58
|
$7.90
$2.75
|
--
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact,
high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation
of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
3Q
earnings on Nov. 4, 2010.
2Q
2010 earnings on August 5, 2010:
Net
sales were $16.1 million in the second quarter of 2010, an
increase of 113% over net sales of $7.5 million in the second
quarter of 2009. Net loss was $15.5 million in the second
quarter of 2010 compared to $13.0 million in the 2009 second
quarter.
Announcements
and Highlights:
· Ener1 will be supplying battery packs to Hyundai Heavy Industries
for EV bus systems
· June 17, Ener1 signed a memorandum of understanding
with the Federal Grid Company of Russia to develop energy
storage systems
·May 27, Ener1 agreed to joint-ventures with Wanxiang, the
largest auto parts supplier to the Chinese car industry; deal
expected to close end of September, 2010
· Automotive production battery pack shipments to THINK began
with second quarter sales totaling $3.4 million; Ener1 currently
shipping 100 packs a month
· Small cell commercial battery business improved as sales
increased $3.8 million over the prior year's quarter
· Ener1 received $24.5 million in grant proceeds from the
US Department of Energy related to US plant expansion efforts
Check
out EnerDel’s
batteries at their YouTube channel.
9.23.10:
Ener1 Group has purchased 5,665,723 shares of common stock
and 2,426,670 million warrants. The warrants, 910,000 of which
are exercisable into Ener1, Inc. common stock at a strike
price of $3.53, and 1,516,670 at a strike price of $4.46,
have a five-year maturity.
|
|
Federated
Prudent Bear Fund
|
No
|
BEARX
|
$5.26
|
$4.99
|
$8.19
$4.99
|
-3%
|
|
The
Prudent Bear Fund operates in the opposite direction of the
market. When the markets rise, the fund share price decreases.
Then the stock market falls, the Bear Fund share price increases
in value.
|
|
Hoku
Scientific
Hawaii
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$2.00
(3.2.09)
|
$2.75
|
$14.55
$1.90
|
-66%
&
+38%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.
2Q
2010 earnings call will be on 11.4.10 at 5 ET.
1Q 2010
earnings on 8.5.10: Revenue for the quarters ended June 30,
2010 and 2009 was $930,000 and $74,000, respectively. Revenues
for both periods derived primarily from photovoltaic, or PV,
system installation and related service contracts. As of June
30, 2010 deferred revenue of $854,000 was attributable to
PV system installations and related service contracts. Net
loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, computed in accordance
with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP,
was $2.7 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, compared to
$905,000, or $0.04 per diluted share, for the same period
in fiscal 2010.
"Our
higher loss can be attributed to the cost of successfully
completing our reactor production demonstration in April,"
according to Scott Paul, president and CEO, HOKU. "Having
completed this critical step in validating our systems, processes
and training, we are moving ahead with preparations for our
planned production ramp-up and expect to initiate commercial
operations this calendar year. To that end, J.H. Kelly has
confirmed that it will increase its onsite workforce in Pocatello
from the present level of more than 100 workers, up to approximately
300 individuals over the next couple of weeks."
Tianwei
New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. has become HOKU’s majority shareholder,
and has enabled HOKU to secure nearly $100 million in debt
financing, which allowed the company to reduce accounts payable
and accrued expenses substantially and resume activities at
their polysilicon facility. In early August, Tianwei offered
to provide HOKU with additional capital to reach the company’s
initial polysilicon production goals for calendar year 2010.
$48.3
million in financing
Hoku
received $28.3 million from China Construction Bank on June
1, 2010 and $20 million from China Construction Bank on May
1, 2010. Proceeds are to be used to complete the development
and construction of the polysilicon production plant under
construction by Hoku's subsidiary, Hoku Materials, Inc., in
Pocatello, Idaho.
|
|
Kulicke
and Soffa Ind.
|
No
|
KLIC
|
$6.72
|
$6.08
|
$9.58
$4.03
|
-10%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
LDK Solar
GREEN
|
Yes
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$11.15
|
$12.15
$4.97
|
-73%
&
+126%
|
|
Read
the articles, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
LDK is
benefitting from lots of press on China’s renewable energy
policy.
Announced
2Q 2010 earnings on 8.10.10 at 5:00 p.m. ET (after markets
close). Record quarterly revenue of $565.3 million, an increase
of 62.7% sequentially and 147.6% year-over- year. Net income
was $45.0 million, or $0.36 per diluted ADS for the second
quarter.
On 10.11.10,
the company provided estimates for the 3rd quarter
that were outstanding. For the third quarter of 2010, LDK
Solar expects to report revenue in the range of $610 to $640
million, wafer shipments of 550 to 570 megawatts (MW), and
module shipments of 80 MW to 90 MW. This is up from prior
estimates of $570 to $600 million. Good news!
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$11.99
|
$12.65
|
$19.31
$9.19
|
+6%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. 3Q results will be released on Nov. 1,
2010 at 5:30 p.m. ET. Ahmad Chatila, Chief Executive Officer,
and Tim Oliver, Chief Financial Officer will lead the call.
Acquisition
of solar developer SunEdison (announced on 10.22.09) should
start putting meat on MEMC’s bottom line in 2010. They now
enter solar power generation with an A-list company in that
field. Recovering after silicon re-pricing completely threw
off their profit margins. Better times going forward.
7.29.10
2Q results: Net sales for the quarter were $448.3 million,
up 2.4% from $437.7 million in the 2010 first quarter and
up 58.5% from $282.9 million in the second quarter of 2009.
Second quarter 2010 results include $30.7 million from
the SunEdison business that was acquired in November 2009.
Gross
profit in the quarter was $76.9 million or 17.2% of net sales,
an increase of 29.7% from $59.3 million in the 2010 first
quarter and 120.3% from $34.9 million in the 2009 second quarter.
MEMC's
net income for the 2010 second quarter was $13.8 million,
or $0.06 per share, compared to a net loss of $9.6 million,
or $0.04 per share, in the 2010 first quarter and a net income
of $1.4 million, or $0.01 per share, in the 2009 second quarter.
Results in the 2010 second quarter include a non-cash benefit
of $15.5 million, or $0.07 per share, resulting from the closure
of the 2006 and 2007 IRS audits, and a non-cash $6.8 million
loss, or $0.03 per share, associated with the valuation adjustment
of the Suntech warrants.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$24.83
$13.07
(7.1.10)
|
$13.22
|
$34.00
$10.11
|
-47%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
in Vol. 6, issue 3.
Sunpower
panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped
countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This
year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used
Sunpower panels.
Announced
2Q 2010 earnings on August 10, 2010 at 1:30 p.m. PT (after
markets close). Revenue increased to $384 million, from $299
million a year ago, an increase of 28%. Net loss was $6.2
million, but margins increased to 26% from 16.5% a year ago.
"SunPower
had a strong second quarter, as our Non-GAAP EPS of $0.15
exceeded our internal plan, and we remain on track to meet
our 2010 financial and operating plans," said Tom Werner,
SunPower's CEO. "Our growing pipeline of 2011 Utility
and Power Plants (UPP) business bookings, as well as the continued
momentum in our Residential and Commercial (R&C) business,
adds to our confidence and visibility for 2011. Additionally,
we are pleased with the significant progress we're making
on our cost reduction roadmap and expect that our joint venture
with AU Optronics (AUO) to accelerate this process." (Announced
a joint venture with AUO to operate the 1.4-gigawatt (GW)
Fab 3 facility in Malaysia, which will begin solar cell production
in the fourth quarter of this year.)
Announced
on March 11, 2010 that the company was awarded two grants
totaling approximately $1.5 million from the California Solar
Initiative Research, Development, Deployment and Demonstration
(CSI RD&D) Program.
March
29, 2010: SunPower Corp. acquired SunRay Renewable Energy,
a leading European solar power plant developer with offices
in Europe and the Middle East.
|
|
Suntech
Power Holdings
|
No
|
STP
|
$14.26
$9.51
(7.1.10)
|
$8.22
|
$49.60
$5.09
|
-42%
&
-14%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic
(PV) module manufacturer.
Suntech
began manufacturing in the US on Oct. 8, 2010.
2Q 2010
earnings were reported on August 18, 2010.
Net revenues
were $625.1 million representing 6.3% growth sequentially
and 94.8% year-over-year. Total PV shipments increased 11.9%
sequentially and 181.7% year-over-year. Net loss was $174.9
million.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
Company
of the Year 2009
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$.50
(10.20.08)
$2.66
(10.09)
|
$5.27
|
$5.52
$2.02
|
+4% &
10X gains
&
+98%
|
|
Note:
U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold
exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration
company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike
gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could
lose your investment. Very risky.
As you
can see, U.S. Gold has been a super performer this year. And
the news on Forbes.com, TheStreet.com and Motley Fool is starting
to heat up. Expect more as Junior Gold Miners capture headlines
on strong gains in share price (largely due to the world’s
current infatuation with gold).
U.S.
Gold begins trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov.
2, 2010, and has a goal of qualifying for the S&P 500
by 2015. Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX
Global Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago Board
of Options Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the
AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto
Stock Exchange.)
If you
believe in this CEO and company, you’ll want to make sure
you have shares of U.S. Gold going forward. Gold should be
a great hedge against inflation, which is predicted to become
an issue once the economy starts to rebound (2010 and forward).
Right now, the Feds are still a little concerned about deflation,
but inflation could begin on the 12-24 month horizon.
his is an exploration company,
not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time.
However, in a September 2010 interview on TheStreet
TV,
Rob McEwen said that becoming a gold producer is part of the
plan. They have silver reserves in Mexico and gold
reserves in Nevada. The most recent exploration updates are
in the press release section of the company website at USGold.com.
Listen to my feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen on BlogTalkRadio.com.
You can review my
original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on
U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).
|
|
Veeco
|
No
|
VECO
|
$43.30
$31.29
(8.15.10)
|
$40.31
|
$54.50
$17.88
|
-7% &
+29%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
Recently
Deleted Companies 2008-2010:
Echelon
+20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson
+10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%, Trina
Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08) +40%.
Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek (deleted
on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was deleted on
9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking on 11.6.08
amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken on 11.7.08.
American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1.08 and 1.14.09.
MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1.08 and 12.15.08.
STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits 20% on
1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On 2.15.09,
AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de Quimica y
Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42% on 3.15.09.
Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%. OSI Pharmaceuticals
was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto was deleted on 3.27.09
with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following companies were in the
money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%), GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%),
LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC (+42%), SQM (+76%), STP
(+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%) and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking
4.13.09: ALTI +209%, AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%,
SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted 4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox
-11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google +9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics
-33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%, SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%,
TSL +216% & -67%, Westpac +42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09:
FMC Corp. with 19% gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19%
gains. TREMX with 50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%. Deleted
5.15.09: SQM with gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09:
EMKR with losses of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1
with gains of 11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy
with losses of -52-98%. Deleted Smith and Nephew on 8.15.09 with gains
of 17% and losses of 28%. Deleted the New Zealand dollar currency
ETF by Wisdom Tree with 36% gains on 12.12.09. 12.18.09:
Deleted Ener1 with 22% gains and Satcon with 29% gains. Deleted
1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10:
Galaxy Resources with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21% gains.
Deleted 9.13.10: American Superconductor (flat) &
AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster busted out in bankruptcy
on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10:
ENER1 was deleted with flat performance.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
Blockbuster
on 10.1.10
ENER1
on 10.15.10
KLA
Tencor on 10.1.10
Please note
that it was reported on 10.1.10 that the Suntech share price was
back above $14. It appears that this financial data (which was supplied
from a news site) was inaccurate. Therefore, I am adding Suntech
back to the Hot News list.
|
Blockbuster
|
Yes
|
BBI
(BLOKA)
|
$0.34
|
$0.08
|
$1.56
$0.15
|
-76%
|
|
Read
"Blockbuster’s
Second Coming"
from Vol. 7, issue 5. Filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 23, 2010.
What does this mean for stock holders? 99.9% of the companies
that file for bankruptcy wipe out the common stock. (Bondholders
get a better deal, but still only pennies on the dollar.)
|
|
ENER1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$4.33
|
$4.28
|
$7.90
$2.75
|
flat
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact,
high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation
of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
2Q 2010
earnings on August 5, 2010:
Net sales
were $16.1 million in the second quarter of 2010, an increase
of 113% over net sales of $7.5 million in the second quarter
of 2009. Net loss was $15.5 million in the second quarter
of 2010 compared to $13.0 million in the 2009 second quarter.
Announcements
and Highlights:
·
Ener1 will be supplying battery packs to Hyundai Heavy Industries
for EV bus systems
·
June 17, Ener1 signed a memorandum of understanding with the
Federal Grid Company of Russia to develop energy storage systems
·May
27, Ener1 agreed to joint-ventures with Wanxiang, the largest
auto parts supplier to the Chinese car industry; deal expected
to close end of September, 2010
·
Automotive production battery pack shipments to THINK began
with second quarter sales totaling $3.4 million; Ener1 currently
shipping 100 packs a month
·
Small cell commercial battery business improved as sales increased
$3.8 million over the prior year's quarter
·
Ener1 received $24.5 million in grant proceeds from the US
Department of Energy related to US plant expansion efforts
Check
out EnerDel’s
batteries at their YouTube channel.
|
|
KLA Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$31.67
|
$35.01
|
$37.71
$26.69
|
+11%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List. Read carefully to identify which is which! Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List.
Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company.
Never pay retail!
Recent
Additions:
ENER1
(HEV) added 10.15.10
KLA Tencor (KLAC) added 10.1.10
Shutterfly (SFLY) added 11.1.10
Recent
Deletions:
ENER1
(HEV) (moved to Hot list on 11.1.10)
eBay
(EBAY) (moved to Cooling Off list on 11.1.10)
Google (GOOG) (moved to Cooling Off list on 10.15.10)
| Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
11.1.10
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
American
Superconductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$29.62
|
$33.05
|
$43.73
$8.22
|
+12%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should benefit from President Obama’s
commitment to build a "a new smart grid to carry electricity
from coast to coast." In fact, we know that AMSC is specifically
on Obama’s mind, even though investors haven’t caught on yet.
1Q
2010 on July 29, 2010: Revenues for the first quarter
of fiscal 2010 increased 33 percent to $97.2 million from
$73.0 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. Gross
margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 was 40.1 percent,
which compares with 30.9 percent for the first quarter of
fiscal 2009. AMSC generated net income of $9.2 million, or
$0.20 per diluted share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2010.
This compares with net income of $1.8 million, or $0.04 per
diluted share, for the first quarter of 2009.
Cash,
cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash
at June 30, 2010 were $120.7 million. This compares with $155.1
million as of March 31, 2010. The decrease was due primarily
to some customer payments shifting from June to July 2010,
an increase in capital expenditures in line with the company’s
plan and changes in the dollar value of cash held in foreign
currencies.
President
Obama mentioned American Superconductor by name in his weekly
address of Nov. 21, 2009. In the official transcript, it is
written: "If we can increase our exports to Asia Pacific
nations by just 5%, we can increase the number of American
jobs supported by these exports by hundreds of thousands.
This is already happening with businesses like American Superconductor
Corporation, an energy technology startup based in Massachusetts
that’s been providing wind power and smart grid systems to
countries like China, Korea, and India. By doing so,
it’s added more than 100 jobs over the last few years."
|
|
AOL
|
No
|
AOL
|
$23.11
|
$25.44
|
$27.00
$19.61
|
+10%
|
|
Read
"AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12.
AOL announced
2Q results on Wed. Aug. 4, 2010. $581 million in revenue.
Goodwill impairment charge of $1.4 billion. Net loss was $1
billion.
Subscription
declines reflect a 25% decline in subscribers year-over-year,
while monthly average churn of 2.6% represents a meaningful
year-over-year improvement and the lowest level of churn in
at least a decade. AOL recorded a goodwill impairment charge
of $1,414.4 million in Q2 2010 arising from a GAAP-required
interim goodwill impairment test. The underlying drivers of
the impairment were a significant increase in net assets due
principally to cash provided by continuing operations and
a significant deferred tax asset associated with Bebo concurrent
with a significant decline in AOL’s stock price since April.
AOL is
in the top 10 trafficked sites in the U.S., next to Google,
Microsoft, Yahoo, Facebook, eBay, News Corp. and Interactive
Corp. The new CEO is a former key player in Google’s massive
growth. Can the company create money out of traffic?
|
|
Applied
Materials
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$11.80
|
$12.29
|
$14.94
$11.48
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
Allscripts
Misys Healthcare Solutions
|
No
|
MDRX
|
$19.94
|
$19.07
|
$17.36
$9.70
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform"
Vol. 7, issue 4. In a press release dated July 27, 2010, Allscripts
announced that the company is merging with Eclipsys. As part
of the merger, the company is issuing 25 million new shares
in a secondary offering that is priced at $16.50/share. (Makes
us glad we didn’t put this on the Hot List at $20/share!)
Shareholders must approve on August 13, 2010. Framework Agreement
was dated June 9, 2010.
|
|
Altair
Nano-technology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.16
|
$0.56
|
$2.94
$0.30
|
-52%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
Vol. 6, issue 4.
2nd
Q earnings on August 5, 2010 at 11 a.m. ET.
For the
quarter ended June 30, 2010, Altairnano reported revenues
of $1.5 million, up from $(3,000) for the same period in 2009.
This increase is the result of higher contract and grant activity
with the Office of Naval Research and the Department of Defense
compared to 2009 which is expected to continue throughout
most of 2010. Sales returns of $183,000 impacted the 2009
results.
Was a
contender in the lithium ion battery marketplace a few years
back, lost market share, orders and prestige and is trying
to re-emerge.
NASDAQ
extended 180-days for ALTAIR’s share price to get above $1/share
before delisting on June 28, 2010. A resolution was recently
passed in the Company's May 2010 Annual and Special Shareholder
meeting which authorized the board of directors to execute
a reverse stock split in the range of 3:1 to 10:1, so company
should execute that and be in compliance soon.
Altairnano's
cash and cash equivalents decreased by $4.1 million, from
$12.3 million at March 31, 2010 to $8.2 million at June 30,
2010. ltairnano's second quarter cash burn rate of about $1.4
million per month represents an improvement compared to the
second half of 2009 and first quarter of 2010. "We are focusing
closely on our cash consumption and have taken a number of
steps such as implementation of a hiring freeze, slowing material
purchases, and deferring capital expenditures to reduce our
monthly burn rate, until anticipated orders close," according
to CEO Terry Copeland.
- Signed
a new long-term purchase and supply agreement with Proterra
Inc., and began manufacturing for the initial order to supply
battery modules through June 2011, valued at $4.6 million.
- Signed
Memorandum of Understanding to supply a 1 MW ALTI-ESS system
to the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute / University of Hawaii
to demonstrate wind farm integration with Hawaii Electric
Light Company. Project funded by the Office of Naval Research.
- Completed
the sale of our AlSher joint venture interest to Sherwin-Williams
and exited the performance materials market.
- Established
an At the Market financing vehicle through Thomas Weisel
Partners.
- Received
shareholder approval subject to the discretion of the Board
prior to October 28, 2010 to change the Company's corporate
jurisdiction from Canada to the state of Nevada.
|
|
iShares
Australia Index
|
No
|
EWA
|
$20.34
|
$24.63
|
$25.14
$15.40
|
+20%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$31.06
|
$41.42
$19.49
|
+3%
|
|
Read
"Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Canadian
Imperial Bank
RISK:
Medium
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$76.53
|
$108.79
$30.64
|
+16%
|
|
Refer
to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars"
article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets
are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks
were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital
in 2009; Australia was #2.
|
|
Citigroup
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
C
|
$2.26
|
$4.16
|
$5.43
$2.55
|
+84%
|
|
One of
the troubled, bailed out banks…
7.16.10:
2Q2010 earnings. Citigroup Inc. today reported second quarter
2010 net income of $2.7 billion or $0.09 per diluted share,
on revenues of $22.1 billion, marking a second consecutive
profitable quarter. Citigroup earned $7.1 billion of net income
in the first six months of 2010.
Revenues
declined $3.4 billion and net income was down $1.7 billion
from the first quarter of 2010, largely as a result of lower
Securities and Banking and Special Asset Pool
revenues.
It’s
important to remember that we don’t really have a clue how
deep and wide the losses at these bailed out banks are. Most
of this is still hidden and the Feds are not releasing the
info, nor are the banks…
|
|
CREE
|
No
|
CREE
|
$70.83
|
$50.03
|
$83.38
$31.12
|
-30%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company
– at a better price (near 52-week low)…
|
|
Eldorado
Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$10.56
|
$17.55
|
$18.62
$7.65
|
+66%
|
|
Read
"Investing
in Gold"
from Vol. 6, issue 9.
2Q 2010
results on 7.26.10:
Eldorado
reported net income of $60.5 million or $0.11 per share for
the period and the Company generated $92.3 million in cash
from operating activities before changes in non-cash working
capital.
EGO sold
172,826 ounces of gold at an average price of $1,195 per ounce
resulting in a 99% increase in sales over the second quarter
of 2009 when the company sold 86,453 ounces of gold at an
average price of $927 per ounce.
Eldorado
is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively
growing businesses in Brazil
China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. We are
one of the lowest cost pure gold producers.
|
|
iShares
Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EEM
|
$39.58
|
$46.58
|
$46.66
$30.30
|
+18%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
iShares
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EMB
|
$104.63
|
$112.56
|
$108.18
$92.42
|
+8%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
First
Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$134.43
|
$163.32
$98.71
|
-7%
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, issue 4.
First
Solar joined S&P500 on 10.02.09.
First
Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer
sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive
advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price.
That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing
is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium
telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source
as silicon. Read the article for more details. They still
list CdTe as the semiconductor of choice on their website,
citing old data from 2004 that this is a good strategy. Be
forewarned!
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$51.36
|
$73.35
|
$74.35
$49.25
|
+43%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?,"
from Vol. 7, issue 2.
2Q 2010
earnings announced on 10.27.10: FMC Corporation FMC
today reported net income of $82.9 million, or $1.13 per diluted
share, in the third quarter of 2010, versus net income of
$28.0 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, in the third quarter
of 2009. Excluding one-time charges in both periods, the company
earned $1.14 per diluted share in the current quarter, an
increase of 28 percent versus $0.89 per diluted share in the
prior-year quarter. Third quarter revenue of $772.5 million
was 8 percent higher than $713.3 million in the prior year.
FMC is
the real winner of the stimulus package because they supply
lithium to the battery makers. On the other hand, that is
not all that this company manufactures, and sales were off
in 2009. Waiting for a better buy-in point.
|
|
Galaxy
Resources
RISK:
HIGH
(off
the boards, thinly traded)
|
No
|
GALXF
|
$1.17
|
$1.45
|
$1.92
$0.79
|
+24%
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in
Australia and China. Traded off the boards in the US, but
is listed on the Australia Stock Exchange. Milestones for
the extraction plant in Australia and the lithium processing
plant in China are on schedule. Looking good. You can read
an update on Milestones on the Galaxy
Resources
website. The markets could take the share price lower still,
but Galaxy has two strong components – Australia-based company
in an emerging market – lithium.
|
|
General
Motors
|
No
|
NA
|
IPO
|
IPO
|
NA
|
--
|
|
Read
"High
Debt Vs. High Risk,"
from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9. According
to a Reuters report on Nov. 1, 2010, the "road show"
for investors will begin after the Nov. 2, 2010 election.
Once that is completed, the company will list their shares
on the NYSE, expect developing news this month.
|
|
Green
Dot
|
No
|
GDOT
|
$41.14
|
$50.75
|
$54.24
$41.13
|
+23%
|
|
Read
"IPO
of the Year"
from Vol. 7, issue 3.
On 9.20.10,
the Los Angeles Business Journal named Green Dot CFO John
Keatley CFO of the Year.
8.12.10
2Q results: Total operating revenues on a generally accepted
accounting principles (GAAP) basis increased 44% to $90.3
million for the second quarter of 2010 from $62.9 million
for the second quarter of 2009. This was lower than 1Q revenue,
however. Card activations were down, from 1.8 million to 1.5
million. Forward P/E is high.
|
|
KLA Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$35.01
|
$35.39
|
$37.71
$26.69
|
flat
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
iShares
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund
|
No
|
ILF
|
$43.92
|
$52.42
|
$50.25
$30.74
|
+19%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Orocobre
|
No
|
OROCF
|
$1.70
|
$2.40
|
$2.72
$0.99
|
+41%
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2. This play is Australian lithium company
with a Toyota deal. Began trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
in June of 2010.
|
|
iShares
MSCI All Peru Index Fund
|
No
|
EPU
|
$34.69
|
$46.90
|
$35.95
$27.19
|
+35%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
PowerShares
Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.78
|
$9.83
|
$11.95
$4.00
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RIO
|
$54.60
|
$65.02
|
$66.65
$39.30
|
+22%
|
|
Gold,
copper and other commodities mining. Based out of UK. Mines
worldwide, but focused greatly in Australia. Annual general
meeting is May 26, 2010 in Melbourne, Victoria. 4:1 stock
split took place on April 30, 2010.
|
|
Ross
Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$59.28
|
$58.93
$34.74
|
+65%
|
|
Read
"Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have been impressive, especially
given the "jobless recovery."
|
|
Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$30.04
|
$30.04
|
$30.04
$13.76
|
--
|
|
Read
"Diamonds
or Scrapbooking,"
from the November 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11.
|
|
Skype
|
No
|
NA
|
IPO
|
IPO
|
NA
|
--
|
|
Read
"High
Debt Vs. High Risk,"
from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9.
|
|
Sociedad
Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$36.36
|
$51.91
|
$51.99
$30.70
|
+40%
|
|
This
is a great company that manufactures silicon for the solar
and IT industry. Looking for a better buy-in, after we get
through the current down-trending volatility.
Read
the article, "Treasure
Hunting,"
in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with (Li) Lithium,"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. SQM announced on Sept. 30, 2009 that
prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be
reduced by approximately 20% from current levels for the renewal
of all its supply contracts. The purpose is to accelerate
demand recovery, create incentives for research of new lithium
uses, and contribute to the sustainable long-term development
of the lithium market.
2Q on
August 31, 2010. Revenues totaled US$865.3 million
for the first six months, representing an increase of 29.5%
over the US$668.4 million reported in the same period of 2009.
The Company also announced a year-over-year earnings increase
of 22.4% for the second quarter of 2010, reporting quarterly
net income of US$105.0 million (US$0.40 per ADR) compared
to the 2009 figure of US$85.8 million (US$0.33 per ADR).
April
14, 2010: Announced a 5.5% bond due in 2020 ($250 million
to be raised). Must be an institutional investor in the US
to qualify. For more info:
Patricio
Vargas, 56-2-4252485 / patricio.vargas@sqm.com
Mary
Laverty, 56-2-4252074 / mary.laverty@sqm.com
Businesses
include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium.
|
|
Sohu
(Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing,
China
Small
Cap
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$73.09
|
$76.91
$41.02
|
+57%
|
|
Chinese
based Internet portal.
|
|
iShares
S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
IGW
|
$45.93
|
$48.20
|
$54.00
$14.03
|
+5%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
Tesla
|
No
|
TSLA
|
$17.00
|
$21.38
|
$30.42
$14.98
|
+26%
|
|
Read
"Tesla
Trades on NASDAQ"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
Should
you buy now? Very volatile stock. Also, production is just
now starting on the new lower-priced sedan. It’s at a former
Toyota factory, which places a lot of ducks in a row, however,
ramping up for production is something that can be wrought
with delays and other unexpected kinks. Combine that with
summer doldrums and hurricane season and watching/waiting
is what we’re doing for now.
|
|
Tidewater
|
No
|
TDW
|
$41.81
|
$46.45
|
$57.08
$37.99
|
+11%
|
|
Read
"Clean
Up"
from Vol. 7, issue 6.
Announces
2Q on Nov. 3, 2010 before the markets open. There are two
surprises that will drag the earnings down, which were pre-announced
on 10.25.10. 1. $4.35 million settlement with the Dept. of
Justice. 2. 34.5% tax rate. That means that Thomson’s estimate
of $.58/share earnings could be off dramatically. Tidewater
estimates the earnings to be $0.35 - $0.40 on a fully diluted
per share basis.
Tidewater
was the hero of the BP oil spill. Thanks to the rapid response
of Capt. Alwin Landry and his crew of 12, the loss of life
on April 20, 2010 was limited to 11. 115 workers were rescued,
cared for and shipped 110 miles to dry land. Tidewater’s share
price has taken a hit as a result of having losses from "seized
assets" and unpaid accounts receivable in Venezuela and
a fine/agreement involving a SEC investigation into U.S. Foreign
Corrupt Practices Act. Tidewater Inc. provides offshore supply
vessels and marine support services to the offshore energy
industry (including oil rigs and offshore oil drilling).
1Q 2011
earnings on 8.5.10: $263 million in revenue, with net earnings
of $40 million. Earnings were down with a large hit on a one-time
charge of losses related to seized assets and the nonpayment
of outstanding accounts receivable by Petroleos de Venezuela,
S.A. (PDVSA), the Venezuelan national oil company.
|
|
Trina
Solar Ltd.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$35.12
|
$25.82
|
$35.12
$11.70
|
-27%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. Please note that TSL had a 2 for 1 stock
split on 1.20.10. That is why the price looks dramatically
different. Investors will note that they should now have twice
as many shares…
2Q earnings
on 8.24.10 at 8 a.m. ET (before markets open). Net revenues
were $370.8 million, an increase of 10.1% sequentially and
147.2% year-over-year. Net income was $38.7 million, which
includes a net foreign currency exchange loss of $29.2 million,
compared to net income of $44.5 million in the first quarter
of 2010.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$73.54
|
$113.10
|
$133.55
$68.75
|
+54%
|
|
Issued
it’s half-year results on May 8, 2010. Go to Westpac.com.au
to access.
Net
profit of $2,875 million, up 32% from a year ago.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List(may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Baidu
(BIDU) on 10.1.10
Ford Motor Company (F) on 11.1.10
eBay (EBAY) on 11.1.10
Google (GOOG) on 10.15.10
Netflix (NFLX) on 9.13.10
Priceline (PCLN) on 10.1.10
Taubman Centers (TCO) on 9.13.10
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) on 10.15.10
Yahoo (YHOO) on 10.15.10
DELETIONS:
None
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
11.1.10
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Amazon
|
No
|
AMZN
|
$121.00
$164.64
(10.15.10)
|
$161.95
|
$151.09
$75.41
|
+34%
&
-2%
|
|
Read
the article "The
High Cost of Cheap Tech Products,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
3Q 2010
results were released on Oct. 21, 2010:
Net sales
increased 39% to $7.56 billion in the third quarter, compared
with $5.45 billion in third quarter 2009. Net income increased
16% to $231 million in the third quarter, or $0.51 per diluted
share, compared with net income of $199 million, or $0.45
per diluted share, in third quarter 2009.
65 P/E
is too frothy for our taste in a slow economy where consumers
are feeling the pinch.
|
|
American
Express
|
Yes
|
AXP
|
$16.98
$41.56
(11.16.09)
|
$41.43
|
$49.19
$22.00
|
+144%
|
|
3Q 2010
earnings announced on Oct 21, 2010.
Net income
of $1.1 billion, up 71 percent from $640 million a year ago.
Revenues were $7 billion, up 17% from last year.
Long
term debt has increased to $130 billion, from $111 billion
at the end of 2009.
Read
the article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2.
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$132.07
$316.46
(10.15.10)
|
$303.48
|
$279.01
$136.32
|
+230%
&
-4%
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
Also read, "The
High Cost of Cheap Tech Products,"
in the July 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 7.
We love
this company. Have just been wanting our subscribers to be
aware that the price is at the 52-week high and could be vulnerable
in a downturn.
4Q 2010
earnings were reported on 10.18.10 and were amazing:
The Company
posted record revenue of $20.34 billion and net quarterly
profit of $4.31 billion, or $4.64 per diluted share. These
results compare to revenue of $12.21 billion and net quarterly
profit of $2.53 billion, or $2.77 per diluted share, in the
year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent compared to
41.8 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales
accounted for 57 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Apple
sold 3.89 million Macs during the quarter, a 27 percent unit
increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 14.1
million iPhones in the quarter, representing 91 percent unit
growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.05 million
iPods during the quarter, representing an 11 percent unit
decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company also sold 4.19
million iPads during the quarter.
We are
blown away to report over $20 billion in revenue and over
$4 billion in after-tax earnings—both all-time records for
Apple," said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. "iPhone sales
of 14.1 million were up 91 percent year-over-year, handily
beating the 12.1 million phones RIM sold in their most recent
quarter. We still have a few surprises left for the remainder
of this calendar year."
Cash
& short term securities: $25 billion. No debt.
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$18.32
|
$107.62
|
$88.32
$31.65
|
+539%
&
flat
|
|
Leading
Chinese website for search (similar to Google). 163 P/E is
high for a revenue stream so tied to advertising (during a
global recession). (Advertising revenue models tend to suffer
greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only 25, by comparison,
right now.)
The
primary Risk Factor for Baidu is: We derive revenues primarily
from online marketing services, which accounted for 98.9%,
99.8% and 99.9% of our total revenues in 2006, 2007 and 2008,
respectively.
10
for one stock split on 5.12.10.
|
|
Berkshire
Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.A
|
$97,000
$125,000
(10.15.10)
|
$119,600
|
$125,252
$84,600
|
+23%
&
-4%
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 6, issue 8, for the feature article, "The
Oracle Turns 80."
Be aware
of the exposure that BRK has to financial giants, Goldman
Sachs, Wells Fargo and American Express.
|
|
Capital
One Financial
|
No
|
COF
|
$22.29
$43.35
(7.11.09)
|
$37.12
|
$47.73
$29.98
|
+69%
&
-15%
|
|
Read
the articles "IPO
of the Year,"
and "American
Express,"
from Vol. 7, issue 3 and Vol. 6, issue 2. COF has a lot of
liabilities that are highlighted in the Stock Report Card
of the IPO of the Year article from volume 7, issue 3. If
you read the SEC filings and realize how much COF has off
the books, how much money they’ve had to take from the Feds
and much liability they may have for mortgages that second
parties want them to be responsible for, you’ll know why COF
is on the Cooling Off List. Additionally, S&P rating is
BBB with negative outlook (as of the May 2010 earnings report).
3Q
earnings on Oct. 21, 2010:
net income
for the third quarter of 2010 of $803 million, or $1.76 per
diluted common share, a 32.1 percent increase compared to
second quarter 2010 net income of $608 million, or $1.33 per
diluted common share. Third quarter 2010 net income increased
103.8 percent compared to third quarter 2009 net income of
$394 million, or $0.87 per diluted share.
Total
revenue in the third quarter of 2010 of $4.0 billion increased
$112 million, or 2.9 percent, from $3.9 billion in the second
quarter of 2010, reflecting a modest increase in net interest
income and a $100 million increase in non-interest income.
COF affiliates
originated and sold an aggregate of approximately $121.9 billion
original principal balance of mortgage loans between 2005
and 2008, of which they believe they may have repayment exposure
of $26 billion. There is ongoing litigation with regard to
this.
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
EBAY
|
$29.36
|
$29.36
|
$32.10
$9.91
|
--
|
|
eBay
is trading at a higher P/E for a company that is posting flat
revenue in a slow retail environment. Think etail will perform
better than retail in the holiday season, but concerned about
investors expecting too much from these companies in an overbought
marketplace – even if the Feds are pushing people out of treasuries.
|
|
Ford
Motor Company
|
No
|
F
|
$12.91
|
$14.19
|
$14.57
$4.71
|
+10%
|
|
Read
"How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive,
but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any
investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler
and GM are present here – with one exception. Ford built cars
that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest).
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$613.69
|
$614.00
|
$629.51
$433.63
|
flat
|
|
See
Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes."
Excellent company and great anchor for your large caps in
the nest egg. But, be careful not to buy in too high, which
we think today’s price is.
Announced
3Q results on Oct 14, 2010.
"Google
had an excellent quarter," said Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google.
"Our core business grew very well, and our newer businesses
-- particularly display and mobile -- continued to show significant
momentum. Going forward, we remain committed to aggressive
investment in both our people and our products as we pursue
an innovation agenda."
Google
reported revenues of $7.29 billion for the quarter ended September
30, 2010, an increase of 23% compared to the third quarter
of 2009. GAAP net income in the third quarter of 2010 was
$2.17 billion, compared to $1.64 billion in the third quarter
of 2009.
Cash
– As of September 30, 2010, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable
securities were $33.4 billion.
Headcount
– On a worldwide basis, Google employed 23,331 full-time employees
as of September 30, 2010, up from 21,805 full-time employees
as of June 30, 2010.
|
|
Intel
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$16.66
$20.25
(9.1.09)
|
$20.52
|
$25.29
$12.06
|
+23%
|
|
Intel
is a great blue chip. But we are still in a challenging year.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$103.98
|
$166.49
|
$127.96
$36.25
|
+60%
|
|
Read
"Blockbuster’s
Second Coming"
from Vol. 7, issue 5.
|
|
Priceline
|
No
|
PCLN
|
$337.82
|
$373.14
|
$358.24
$154.12
|
+5%
|
|
Read
the article "The
Priceline Negotiator,"
from Vol. 7, issue 10.
|
|
Sears
Holding
|
Yes
|
SHLD
|
$52.93
$98.06
(1.11.10)
|
$70.77
|
$125.42
$59.21
|
+34%
&
-28%
|
|
Chairman
Eddie Lampert has been dumping shares en masse, to the tune
of over $376 million. Consensus insider selling…
Read
the articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and the "Discount
Designer Stores"
article (Vol. 5, issue 6). Sears is one of the largest,
oldest retail chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American
as baseball and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more
of a hedge fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been
trying to get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for
months or been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot
for so long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all
of the board directors at Sears are in the investment business,
not the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott,
a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without
significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board
has any experience at all in retail.
Still
don’t have an official CEO. Bruce Johnson has been the interim
CEO and president since January of 2008, which is not just
"weird" it’s a BIG FAT RED FLAG! The former CFO
Miles Reidy decided late in 2008 that he needed to spend more
time with his family rather than to put is name on the 2008
annual report. Another big red flag. A few C-level executives
at Sears are also employed by Chairman Eddie Lampert for his
investment company.
2Q earnings
on 8.19.10: Net loss attributable to Holdings' shareholders
for the quarter of $39 million, or $0.35 loss per diluted
share, in 2010 and $94 million, or $0.79 loss per diluted
share, in 2009. Total revenues decreased $93 million to $10.5
billion for the quarter ended July 31, 2010, as compared to
total revenues of $10.6 billion for the quarter ended August
1, 2009. The decline in total revenue for the quarter
was primarily a result of a 2.2% decrease in domestic comparable
store sales and the effect of having fewer Kmart and Sears
Full-line stores in operation, partially offset by an increase
of $96 million due to changes in the Canadian foreign exchange
rate.
Cash
= $1.2 billion at July 31, 2010 (approximately $500 million
domestic and $700 million at Sears Canada), $1.3 billion at
August 1, 2009 and $1.7 billion at January 30, 2010. Significant
uses of our cash during the first half of 2010 include $560
million for the purchase of additional interest in Sears Canada,
$273 million for share repurchases, repayments of long-term
debt of $228 million, capital expenditures of $168 million,
and contributions to our pension and post-retirement benefit
plans of $122 million. These uses of cash were funded in part
by an increase in short-term borrowings of $893 million.
Total
debt (consisting of short-term borrowings, long-term debt
and capital lease obligations) was $3.2 billion at July 31,
2010. $16 billion in total liabilities. (Sears market value
is $6.86 billion). The SEC filing includes this risk disclaimer.
"We are subject to various other legal and governmental
proceedings, many involving litigation incidental to our businesses.
Some matters contain class action allegations, environmental
and asbestos exposure allegations and other consumer-based
claims, each of which may seek compensatory, punitive or treble
damage claims (potentially in large amounts), as well as other
types of relief."
In the
"hedge fund" side biz of Sears,
please note that: Our Board of Directors has delegated authority
to direct investment of our surplus cash to Edward S. Lampert,
subject to various limitations that have been or may be from
time to time adopted by the Board of Directors and/or the
Finance Committee of the Board of Directors. Hmm. Didn’t know
that a company with this much debt had surplus cash…
|
|
Taubman
Centers REIT
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$47.97
(10.15.10)
|
$47.22
|
$45.00
$21.85
|
+91%
&
flat
|
|
Read
the article, "Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June
2009.
3Q
on 10.28.10:
Net
income (loss) allocable to common shareholders per diluted
share (EPS) was $0.01 for the quarter ended September 30,
2010, up from $(1.77) for the quarter ended September 30,
2009.
"We've
now reported three quarters of double digit tenant sales increases,
and there is strong momentum as we approach the holidays,"
said Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and CEO. "We
attribute this outstanding performance to the merchandise
mix at our centers and the overall health of our portfolio."
The
question is: If you’ve been to a mall lately, do you believe
him?
|
|
Time
Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
$31.78
(9.11.10)
|
$32.36
|
$50.70
$17.81
|
+32%
&
+2%
|
|
Read
the article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May
2009.
Reports
2Q earnings on 8.4.10.
Revenues
grew 8% from the same period in 2009 to $6.4 billion. As of
June 30, 2010, Net Debt increased to $12.3 billion from $11.5
billion at the end of 2009, due mainly to share repurchases
and dividends, as well as investment and acquisition spending,
offset by the generation of Free Cash Flow. Net Income was
$562 million compared to Net Income in the second quarter
of 2009 of $524 million.
Conan
O’Brien will host a late-night talk show on TBS beginning
Nov. 8, 2010. Could this take TBS to a whole new level?
|
|
Toyota
Motor Company
|
No
|
TM
|
$77.05
(2.12.10)
|
$69.60
|
$91.97
$51.79
|
-9%
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2 and "One
Very Hot IPO" from Vol. 7, issue
9.
|
|
Transocean
|
No
|
RIG
|
$56.77
$68.80
(10.15.10)
|
$62.66
|
$94.88
$41.88
|
+10%
&
-9%
|
|
For more
information, read the article, "Clean
Up,"
from June 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 6.
|
|
PowerShares
Treasury Bill Index Fund
|
No
|
PLW
|
$30.02
|
$29.22
|
$30.02
$26.30
|
-3%
|
|
Read
"Don’t
Get Fooled Again,"
from Vol. 7, issue 8. When interest rates rise, bonds and
bond funds fall in value. Time to find another "safe"
place for your assets.
|
|
VMWare
|
No
|
VMW
|
$70.58
$85.51
(10.1.10)
|
$76.45
|
$89.18
$25.27
|
+8% &
-10%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform"
Vol. 7, issue 4. P/E of 109 is too high, even for this great
company!
|
|
Wells
Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$20.05
$29.21
(10.15.09)
|
$25.82
|
$44.69
$7.80
|
+29%
&
-12%
|
|
3Q 2010
earnings call on Oct 20, 2010. WFC reported Record Net Earnings
AGAIN! WOW!!! (It’s easier to report strong earnings when
you’re not reporting all of the foreclosures you’re carrying
off the books!) Of course, 28% interest rates on credit cards
and $28 overdraft fees help… Can we say usury?
Record
net income of $3.34 billion. Net income applicable to common
stock a record $3.15 billion, up 19 percent from prior year
and up 9 percent from prior quarter.
I can’t
tell you how many people I know who haven’t paid their mortgage
in six months (or longer) but are still in their homes. Bank
earnings statements right now are the biggest fairy tales
ever told. Additionally, WFC credit card holders report getting
charged 29.9% interest rates, while overdraft class action
lawsuits against WFC continue to mount their defense.
See
"Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol, 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression,"
in Vol. 4, issue 12.
Wells
Fargo Chairman takes early retirement:
Dick
Kovacevich stepped down as chairman and a director at the
end of 2009.
|
|
Wynn
Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
|
$109.24
|
$176.14
$18.06
|
+14%
|
|
Check
out the article, "(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5, issue 10.
3Q
2010 earnings will be announced on 11.2.10.
Watch
Steve Wynn discuss Washington, Macau, Vegas, his new Beach
Club at Wynn Encore (Las Vegas) and the future of America
on CNBC,
from a May 28, 2010 interview.
2Q
earnings on 7.29.10: Net revenues for the second quarter of
2010 were $1.0 billion, compared to $723.3 million in the
second quarter of 2009, driven by a 74.1% increase in net
revenues at Wynn Macau. Net income was $52.4 million, compared
to net income of $25.5 million a year ago. Wynn Resorts also
announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a
cash dividend for the quarter of $0.25 per common share. This
dividend will be payable on August 26, 2010 to stockholders
of record on August 12, 2010.
Our
total cash balances at June 30, 2010 were $1.9 billion. Total
debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $3.2 billion,
including approximately $2.5 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt
and $681 million of Wynn Macau debt.
|
|
Yahoo
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$15.00
$16.25
(10.15.10)
|
$16.14
|
$19.12
$13.52
|
+8%
&
Flat
|
|
Read
the "AOL"
article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card
on Yahoo from December 2009.
|
Deleted in
2008/2009/2010:
Fannie
Mae was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share
price value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%.
(Both puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted
on 6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was
deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo
was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted
on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on
8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First
Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with
75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was
deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction).
Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on
10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells
Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again
on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in
just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09. First Solar was deleted
on 8.13.09 with 33% gains. KB Home with 74% gains and Toll Brothers
with 51% gains on 10.01.09. Deleted AMAT on 8.1.10 with gains of
12.5% & 7% (put gains would be double or more). 8.30.10: Deleted
FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%), MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT (-20%)
-- all for gains. Deleted MGM 9.13.10 for 61% gains.
|
MGM Mirage
|
No
|
MGM
|
$26.79
|
$10.34
|
$16.66
$5.10
|
-61%
|
|
Deleted
September 13, 2010.
Get
more information in Vol. 5, issue
10 in the "(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
article.
MGM is
being deleted because the IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange
will fill its coffers with cash. The company is still fundamentally
flawed and debt-laden, suffering from losses in hotel revenue,
casino and table winnings and real estate values, while at
the same time being over-leveraged and having to borrow from
Peng to pay Paul. Nonetheless, the public will not be privy
to these facts by and large. I still encourage investors to
avoid this stock, but if you have any put positions, better
to take profits now than wait for the world to catch up to
your facts and knowledge. Could take awhile.
2Q on
8.3.10: Net revenue improved sequentially to $1.54 billion
from $1.46 billion in the first quarter of 2010; Operating
loss for the second quarter of 2010 was $1.0 billion (which
included the $1.12 billion impairment of the Company’s investment
in CityCenter and the Company’s $29 million share of the CityCenter
residential impairment charge) compared to operating income
of $131 million in the 2009 quarter.
Debt
is a big issue with MGM. Check the SEC filing. At June 30,
2010, the Company had approximately $13.3 billion of indebtedness
(with a carrying value of $13.0 billion), including $3.2 billion
of borrowings outstanding under its senior credit facility.
The Company has approximately $1.5 billion in available
borrowing capacity under its revolver and approximately $570
million of invested cash available for future liquidity needs.
Another $3 billion is owed in back taxes and other obligations.
|
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Interested
in Getting Out of Debt? Join us for a Free Tuesday Night Teleconference
on Nov. 9, 2010 at 6:00 p.m. PT.
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add
online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are
booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday
& Wednesday, November 2-3, 2010
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve
policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting November 2-3, 2010.
The
Merry Wives of Windsor. NYC
NOW
through Sunday, November 7th, 2010
This is one of the best productions of Shakespeare that I've ever
seen. A hilarious comedy starring one of the immortal characters
of all-time -- Falstaff. Don't miss it!
NC
Gov's Conference for Women. Raleigh, NC
Tuesday,
November 9th, 2010
Gov. Beverly Eaves Perdue, NC's first woman governor, will speak,
as will Jean Chatzky and Sapphire, the author of Push (the
book upon which the film Precious was made).
Get
Out of Debt Radio Show with Natalie Pace
Tuesday,
November 9th, 2010
6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
Learn the 5 Easy Ways to Get Out of Debt and start living the life
of your dreams. Join Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305
Green
Business Conference, SF, CA
Thursday,
November 11th, 2010
Whether you are an established green business visionary or just
starting your journey to sustainability, you'll find the Green Business
Conference an exceptional opportunity to partner with business leaders
who share your values, your challenges, and your commitment to sustainable
living.
Veterans
Day
Thursday,
November 11th, 2010
Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
November
12-14, 2010
You spend hundreds of thousands learning how to earn money. Why
not spend a fraction of that learning how to invest? 3 days in a
board room setting, learning investing directly from Natalie Pace,
sets you up for life. Nov. 12-14, 2010.
GreenBuild
Conference, Chicago, IL
Wednesday,
November 17th, 2010
Together, we will define what the future looks like in cities and
towns around the world.
Clean
Tech Open, Bay Area, CA
Wednesday,
November 17th, 2010
view the hundreds of technology exhibits, vote for your favorite
Ideas Competition finalist, watch the Business Competition finalist
demos, hear the nationally-recognized speakers, and BE THERE for
the National Winner announcement.
GDP
3Q 2010 report (second estimate)
Tuesday,
November 23rd, 2010
8:30AM through 8:45AM ET
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov)
releases its second report on GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2010.
Advance numbers show 2% GDP growth. Final results for the 1st and
2nd quarters of 2010 came in at 3.7% and 1.7%, respectively.
Special
Economic Report
Wednesday,
December 1st, 2010
The National Due date of the special report from the Commission
on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.
Living
off the Grid. Radio Show
Tuesday,
December 7th, 2010
9:00AM through 9:30AM PT.
Renewable energy author and educator Dan Fink has lived off the
grid since 1991, 11 miles from the nearest power pole or telephone
line. Learn how to go green in your life! Call-in Number: (347)
215-7305
Natalie
Pace: Budget Like a Rock Star
Tuesday,
December 7th, 2010
10:00AM
through 10:30AM PT.
Join BestEverYou Elizabeth Hamilton-Guarino as she interviews Wall
Street's rock star, Natalie Pace. Hard assets and a beautiful bottom
line are just what every girl needs!
OPEC
meeting in Quito, Ecuador
Saturday,
December 11th, 2010
OPEC meets. They will also release details on their new Long Term
Strategy, which was approved for adoption at the Oct 14, 2010 meeting.
If they adopt a basket of currencies, this could be a problem for
the U.S.
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday,
December 14th, 2010
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve
policy in the U.S.
Winter
Solstice
Tuesday,
December 21st, 2010
Celebrate the winter season, when the Earth is tipped farthest away
from the Sun. Ski! Sled! Snowboard! Snow angels!

|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
|
|
|