TO ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.


Vol. 8 Issue 4, April 1st, 2011
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"Values of democracy and freedom of choice that are sweeping the Middle East at this moment in time are the best opportunity for the world - for the West and the East - to see stability and to see security and to see friendship and to see tolerance emerging rather than the images of violence and terrorism. Let us support these people and let us stand for them."

Wadah Khanfar, director general of the Al Jazeera network
Speaking at the Ted Conference, on March 3, 2011 .


Bookmark and Share

Earth Hour.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes an Electric Car Battery Makers Stock Report Card.

At 8:30 p.m. on March 26, 2011, the lights went off around the world as part of Earth Hour. From Locando del Lago restaurant in Santa Monica, California, to the Bird’s Nest Stadium in Beijing, to the Sydney Opera House, to the Las Vegas Strip, businesses turned off the lights for an hour to take a stand against climate change. Our waiter apologized, but, honestly, it was fun to eat by candlelight. I’d like to see this occur weekly, instead of annually.

However, let’s face it. It will take more than turning off the lights for an hour once a year to reduce carbon emissions and achieve China’s aggressive clean energy targets. On March 28, 2011, China, as the world's largest primary energy consumer, pledged to cut energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16 percent while slashing carbon emissions by 17 percent now through 2015. To accomplish this, China is investing in electric cars and buses, LED lighting, solar and wind energy and water conservation at a pace faster than any other country in the world.

Congress may fight it, but there is no doubt that clean energy is also a cornerstone of President Obama’s agenda. In his State of the Union speech on January 25, 2011, President Obama assured Americans, "With more research and incentives, we can break our dependence on oil... and become the first country to have a million electric vehicles on the road by 2015... And to help pay for it, I’m asking Congress to eliminate the billions in taxpayer dollars we currently give to oil companies.  I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but they’re doing just fine on their own. So instead of subsidizing yesterday’s energy, let’s invest in tomorrow’s."

The United States and China are currently in a race to see which country will be the first to put one million electric cars on the road. On January 26, 2011, Vice President Joe Biden visited the ENER1 factory in Greenfield, Indiana to bring attention to the U.S. commitment of putting one million EVs on the road by 2015. To ensure that U.S. consumers are purchasing the electric cars, taxpayers can receive a tax credit worth up to $7500 for purchasing an all-electric car. The Chinese government has set an annual production goal of 500,000 hybrid or all-electric cars and buses by 2012.

There are many electric car companies and lithium ion battery makers stepping up to serve this emerging industry, but none has more momentum, government backing or sales growth than ENER1. ENER1’s sales have tripled year over year. The Department of Energy granted $118 million to the company. And ENER1 just announced (on January 18, 2011) a new joint venture with Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., to co-manufacture Li-ion cells and battery packs for the rapidly growing Chinese market. The new company will harness cutting-edge American technology and advanced Chinese manufacturing capability to produce battery systems for Wanxiang's several existing light- and heavy-duty automotive and power grid customers for delivery this year.

ENER1 just secured a $40 million deal to supply Russia's Federal Grid Company, with $30 million of the revenue to come in the first half of 2011. There are Memorandums of Understanding between the two companies to develop additional projects.

To handle all of this rapid expansion and fuel even more, ENER1 hired Christopher L. Cowger as president, on March 28, 2011. Cowger was formerly a corporate vice president and general manager for the semiconductor giant Advanced Micro Devices. Cowger’s business pedigree includes ten years at Dell, Inc., last serving as vice president and general manager of its global consumer software and peripherals division, time at General Motors and graduate degrees in electrical engineering and business administration from MIT. "In Chris we have an exceptionally talented and innovative business leader with the sales, marketing and operations capability to help take our company to the next level," said Ener1 Chairman and CEO Charles Gassenheimer.  "While rising quickly through three of the most important manufacturers of our times, he has demonstrated an ability to imbue an organization with a razor-sharp customer focus perfectly suited for Ener1's commitment to delivering the precise technology solution for every client in each of our three business verticals." ENER1 manufactures compact, lithium-ion powered battery solutions for the transportation, grid energy storage and consumer markets.

This sounds like a recipe for sure success, but there is a bug in the soup – THINK Global. THINK Global has suspended battery orders from ENER1 in 2011, owes ENER1 $13.6 million and has a legacy of accounting problems, including a bankruptcy in Norway, where the company is based. If ENER1 takes equity instead of cash for the past due amount, ENER1 could end up as a majority stakeholder of THINK. This would require ENER1 to include THINK’s accounting with their own -- adding a whole lot of ugly to ENER1’s bottom line.

So, what’s the investor appetite for ENER1? Can Wall Street savvy ENER1 chairman and CEO Charles Gassenheimer, an Ivy Leaguer with a degree in economics and a background running hedge funds for Citigroup and Credit Suisse, beef up the ENER1 bottom line and prevent the THINK bug from falling in the pot? I’m betting that experience, momentum, a big political appetite and commitment for electric cars, worldwide orders, presidential applause and a Manhattan office will season the soup just right for ENER1 this year – even given the THINK challenges.

We’ll certainly know more when ENER1 files their first quarter earnings report in the first week of May. However, with the ENER1 share price trading near its 52-week low, I’m happy to place my bet now.

Full Disclosure: I own shares of ENER1. This is a company that I have been featuring in the Hot News on Cool Stocks list for more than a year now.

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com, Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace, and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Bookmark and Share

The Economic Implications of the Japanese Earthquake Disaster and its Aftermath.

by Dr. Gary S. Becker.

Dr. Gary S. Becker.

Japan has certainly been hard-hit during the past couple of decades. It has had almost twenty years of confidence-destroying slow economic growth, a series of humiliating confrontations with a rising and more aggressive China, and finally the biggest earthquake ever recorded in Japan. And this earthquake not only directly caused great damage, but it also set off a tsunami with huge destructive power. As if this were not enough, the combined earthquake-tsunami badly damaged two nuclear energy plants located on the fault lines and by the sea -- damage that led to the release of as yet undetermined amounts of radiation. Still, I do not expect this disaster, despite its severity, to have major effects on the Japanese economy. But it will have a big impact on the nuclear power industry, and may help different countries better prepare for very rare but destructive natural events.

The fundamental loss to the Japanese people from this earthquake-tsunami-nuclear disaster is the destruction and damage to people and property. Perhaps in the end about 20,000 people would have been killed, and many others would be severely injured, including the unfortunates who were exposed to high levels of radiation. Twenty thousands deaths are a terrible loss, but they are only a small subtraction from the economy since they constitute about 0.016% of the Japanese population of some 127 million people. Studies of what people in a country like Japan would be willing to pay to avoid highly rare destructive events like that of a magnitude 9.0 Richter scale earthquake combined with a major tsunami suggest that these 20,000 deaths would be valued by about $3 million per death (many of those who died are older and have shorter remaining lives). The total cost of 20,000 deaths would then be $60 billion, a large sum to be sure, but again very small relative to Japan’s GDP of about $5 trillion.

The loss of property is even more difficult to calculate at this point. Since the earthquake hit a depressed region of Japan dependent on declining industries like farming and fishing, it could not have caused a major loss in buildings, equipment, and consumer durables relative to Japan’s total stock of assets. The output produced by the worst affected parts of this region are no more than about 4% of Japan’s GDP, so that percent would be a gross upper bound to the economy’s loss of buildings and equipment.

Even if the leaks from the nuclear reactors are contained without major public exposure to radiation, the combined loss of people and property are sizable in an absolute sense, and of course are disastrous to the people who lost their lives and property, or the lives of their loved ones. Still, it is not a major economic loss to Japan as a whole, and per se these losses should not result in more than a small decline in the per capita standard of living of the Japanese people.

Further economic consequences always follow from major disasters. Production by some businesses has been temporarily reduced since supply chains were disrupted. Since the earthquake hit a depressed and declining region, out migration of young men and women will accelerate, as will the decline of fishing and farming in that region. Construction will increase to replace some of the destroyed homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Presumably also, substantial amounts will be spent on repairing the damaged nuclear plants. These increased activities might give the appearance of an economic boom in the region, but it is a fake "boom" since they will mainly replace or repair destroyed and damaged buildings and equipment.

I do not expect it to take very long before the region replaces most of its damaged property. A year after the powerful Kobe earthquake in 1995 that destroyed or damaged about 100,000 homes, GDP of the Kobe region of Japan surpassed its level prior to the earthquake.

The growing worldwide boom for nuclear energy will surely end, however. Nuclear power does not use fossil fuels and does not cause environmental harm if the radioactive waste is disposed of properly. However, these major advantages now have to be weighed against the different events that can damage nuclear reactors, and release large amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. At the minimum there will be a justified reluctance to locate new reactors on earthquake fault lines and close by seas that may have major tsunami action. Some reactors already in these vulnerable locations may be closed or relocated. Yet I hope that this does not also lead to a sustained moratorium on construction of new nuclear energy plants, but rather mainly induces even closer attention to safeguards against the release of high radiation levels, whether due to natural disasters or terrorist attacks.

It is difficult for people, no matter what their intelligence, to factor into their behavior the consequences of exposure to events that are both very rare, such as a major earthquake, and cause major damage when they do occur. It often takes decades that encompass most or all of a typical lifetime before another such event occurs. In addition, it is not always clear about how much protective action should be taken against such events. The expected damage from such events, which is the product of a small number (the probability of the event), and a large number (the damage inflicted when the event occurs), may itself be only moderate in size. Such moderate expected damages would not justify very expensive protective measures.

Governments have important roles to play in providing the latest information in readily accessible form on the location and likelihood of major, if rare, potential disasters. They also have the responsibility to prevent the building of plants, such as nuclear reactors, in places that would greatly harm people and property in the event of catastrophic events. At the same time, governments need to allow housing and other markets the flexibility so that individual choices can price into different locations their vulnerability to various rare but catastrophic events. An important World Bank study on disasters (see the important book, Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ World Bank, 2010) shows, for example, that in flexible housing markets property values often are lower in areas more vulnerable to earthquakes and other disasters.

 

About Gary Becker:
Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.

To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his website and blog.


Bookmark and Share

Protect Your Assets from Nuclear Crisis, War, Terrorism, and Other Disasters.

by Natalie Pace.

Parents, more than anyone, can feel extremely vulnerable during disasters, especially if you are counting on investments to help you shore up the financial hardship that always comes when you have kids. The last thing you need when a crisis occurs is to feel like the whole world is crashing in, including your emergency funds. Fortunately, with a little forethought and preparedness, you can have confidence that your assets are covered, even in uncertain times.

There are three critical aspects to protecting your assets for any emergency -- preparing before disaster strikes, surviving the catastrophe and recovering. Below are seven important ways to protect your nest egg at all times and to be in the best position to profit (while others are still scrambling to recover).

As one of the few people who tripled my stock investments in 2001 -- without shorting -- during a time when most investors lost more than half of their nest egg, I feel a bit qualified to talk about protecting your assets against war and terrorism. And as a single mom, I can tell you that using these strategies helped me to focus my energy on my family during that emotional time for our nation, rather than worrying about the stock market -- an invaluable benefit.

Preparing Yourself Before Disaster Strikes

    1. Keep Enough Safe. This one tip is one of the most important. If you don’t have enough safe, you’re betting your entire lot on the whims of a volatile market and a disaster-prone world. During the Great Recession, most people lost half (or more) of their assets, and are still waiting to recover fully, while those who had enough safe limited their losses to a fraction of what their friends lost and have more assets today than before the onset of the recession. In the worst-case scenario, that could mean that you cannot retire and have to continue working, or that you have to sell for a substantial loss to cover bills. On the other hand, having enough safe ensures that you can buy some of your favorite companies at the lowest prices available in years, fueling your personal economic recovery. NASDAQ scored 40% gains in 2009! Latin America and Australia stocks doubled in 2009-2010! Some people were profiting, while others were merely recovering from losses. Always keep a percentage equal to your age safe, i.e. not invested in stocks.

    2. Know Your Insurance Plan, including the fine print. If you’re going to spend all that money on insurance, be sure that you know what is and is not covered. Hurricane Katrina survivors were devastated to learn that their hurricane insurance didn’t include the flooding that occurred when the levies failed. You should know specific details on what is and is not covered before tragedy strikes.

    3. Diversify. Some areas of the market do better than others during tough times. As just one example, during the March 2011 nuclear crisis in Japan, the stock market became a rollercoaster, but most clean energy stocks remained very buoyant. People become far more interested in clean energy when there is a problem with oil (high prices or an oil spill) or nuclear (like the potential meltdown). Gold and oil prices were steady and strong as well. By having your funds diversified into small, medium and large, value and growth and four hot industries, you make sure all of your eggs are not in the same basket when disaster comes to town.
    4. Performance of the PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
      March 11-28, 2011

Getting Through Tough Times

    1. Avoid Hot Tips. Whether it is the anthrax vaccine or investing in potassium iodide, there is always some hot tip raging on the investor chat room bulletin boards during disasters. In general, you’re better off avoiding all of the sure shots that your favorite "friends" tout. If you do think something sounds interesting, don’t buy in without doing a Stock Report Card and asking the Four Questions that are outlined in You Vs. Wall Street. Then, if you’re still convinced that you’ve found a winning company, make sure you’re buying it at a good price, from a reputable source.

    2. Consider Buying Opportunities (carefully). During severe corrections, like we saw on 911, your favorite companies can go on sale. However, if you are paralyzed by fear and shock, you’ll miss the buying opportunity. It pays to have a Stock Shopping List planned for such occasions – a list of companies that you’ve pre-screened and are sure you would love to own, at a lower price. Those who bought on 9.14.01 (when the markets reopened after 9.11) earned 20-30 percent gains in just four months—by January 2002. The Dow and S&P 500 were up 20 percent, while NASDAQ posted 30% gains. (This was key to my success in 2001.)
    3. Likewise, BP was up 30% in a few short months after the Gulf Oil Spill of 2010 was capped.

      After the Disaster: Poised for Profits

    4. Annual Rebalancing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat compared to its value ten years ago. NASDAQ is still worth half of its March 2010 high. Annual rebalancing is the only way investors are making any money. Investors that buy and hold in today’s slow growth economy, and expect an annual return of 10%, are delusional. For superior performance, keep a percentage equal to your age safe, avoid the bailouts, add in hot industries, diversify by size and style and rebalance your nest egg annually.

    5. Windows of Opportunity for Selling. For individual stocks, where you have taken on higher risk, anticipating a higher return, the temptation might be to set a stop loss. Or, if you bought right before a disaster, the temptation might be to sell quickly to avoid further losses. Both are losing propositions in a volatile world. Instead, think of stop gains. Your window of opportunity for selling for a profit might occur too quickly for you to catch it, so consider having a limit sell order in place at a reasonable profit. In this way, instead of selling low, you are selling high. I was in this position on 9.14, and rather than selling for a loss in September, I waited just three short months and almost tripled my investment.

Get additional information in chapter 16 of You Vs. Wall Street, entitled "War, Terrorism and Other Acts of God."

Natalie’s Three Takeaway Tips

1. Disasters in the stock market are opportunities to buy into companies that you’ve loved for a while, but thought were out of your price range. So keep that shopping list of favorite stocks handy.
2. There’s a big difference between buying into your favorite companies—that you prescreen before disaster strikes—and being seduced by the promise of hot tips, like anthrax vaccines.
3. The average return for the stock market over the last thirty years was 11 percent. That time period includes many financial disasters, including 9/11, the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the U.S. debt crisis of 1992, Black Monday 1987 and the Great Recession, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 50%.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com, Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace, and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Bookmark and Share

Debunking Clean Energy Myths.

Debunking Clean Energy Myths.

by Dan Fink

We've all been hearing these statements and reading those blogs since the 2008 election cycle: Clean energy is entirely unachievable! Insane! Stupid! A pipe dream that will never work and can never pay off.

And yet, I've successfully lived off the grid with my home powered entirely by solar and wind since 1991. So, I obviously beg to differ. I do agree there's been a lot of idiocy in the discussion over the last few years, but most of it stems from narrowly defining the questions in absolutes, rather than painting a broader picture of the multiple and integrated systems that all need to change, slowly and deliberately, for clean energy to become a reality in the US.

The last few weeks have brought us not a mere one-two energy sucker punch, but a full body slam worthy of the Ultimate Fighting Championships. There have been multiple nuclear meltdowns in Japan, gasoline at $4.00 a gallon thanks to North African political turmoil, news that fracking for natural gas is an environmental nightmare and recent reports showing that coal-fired power plants in the US kill up to 13,000 people yearly through mercury and other emissions (source: American Lung Association). According to Charles D. Connor, president and CEO of the American Lung Association, "It’s time that we end the ‘toxic loophole’ that has allowed coal-burning power plants to operate without any federal limits on emissions of [dangerous pollutants]."

It's time to re-examine some of these old "clean energy myths" with a focus on broad solutions and a sober debate on the untallied (and incalculable) costs of dirty energy, like coal, oil and nuclear.

Myth #1: The sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow 24 hours a day.
The high plains of North Dakota could provide wind energy to a huge swath of the US, while the deserts of Nevada could do the same with solar. Why can't every state in the Union share in this bounty? The answer is lack of transmission infrastructure, as you can see from this link to the U.S. Power Grid. The thinner the power lines are and the longer the distance from source to load, the more energy is wasted. As you can see, the lines coming from both North Dakota and Nevada are inadequately thin, and branch out in only very limited directions.

Expanding power transmission infrastructure capacity is a logical solution, which boils down to stringing up more and thicker wires, and bumping everything on them up to higher voltage. But nobody seems to think that they should have to actually pay for such infrastructure improvements on their monthly electric bills.

On the other hand, string a new power line to a remote village in Africa to electrify it for the first time, and you can be assured that every resident knows that they are paying for the new infrastructure...and they are paying the price gladly. Maybe it's time for an infrastructure reality check here in the USA.

Newer utility-scale solar thermal generation plants have some interesting base load capacity built right in—solar heat is stored in molten salts, which remain hot enough to continue generating steam after the sun sets. Until recently, this psuedo-base-load capacity has been only a minor focus in the solar thermal industry because true base load capacity has been so cheaply and easily provided by coal and nuclear sources. As the costs of greening and cleaning these base load technologies rise, so will interest and investment in the thermal storage side of solar thermal generation.

The current Obama administration national energy policy is actually packed full of oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear—with the focus not on abandoning these energy sources (as some anti-clean-energy pundits shrilly assume,) but instead on making them cleaner and greener. Will the cost come out of your pocketbook? Well, yes. But the costs of dirty energy are far more insidious and long-term, as we pay the piper under the table for health care costs from air and water pollution for decades into the future. We have two recent examples of these costs in the Gulf Oil Spill and the Japanese Nuclear Disaster. The Japanese Disaster is so extensive and expensive that the Japanese government will likely have to bail out the utility company that owns the nuclear power plant.

Electricity prices in the US are relatively cheap compared to the rest of the world because our base load fuels are cheap, with high energy density: coal, nuclear and hydro. "Peaking load" fuels, to power our lives while everyone else in the US is also using lots of power, include natural gas, oil, geothermal, solar and wind.

Myth #2: Renewable energy just costs too much, and will never be cost effective.
This myth has never been further from the truth as today. Prices continue to drop rapidly on solar and wind technology, as both demand and production increase. Cost per kWh for solar is already competitive with non-renewable sources in much of the world, where energy prices are not held so artificially low with government subsidies on base load fuels as they are in the US.

Federal tax credits and state and local incentives for the installation of renewables have long been the targets of scorn from anti-clean-energy activists, and conservative pundits froth at the mouth with the mere mention of Feed-in-Tariffs (FITs). But the only thing frightening about FITs is their unfortunate name—they are not any sort of tariff or tax at all, but rather an intricately structured rate plan straight from the utility.

FITs start out paying excellent rates per kWh for renewable energy to encourage individual investment in distributed renewable generation, with the rates paid stabilizing at "normal" levels after a few years, allowing the initial investment to pay back quickly but remain sustainable for the long term for everyone involved. FITs have been successful worldwide, in such diverse locations as Australia, Algeria, China, and Germany—the latter being quite an accomplishment, since Germany's solar potential is very low, on par with only the worst locations in the US.

Such government "nudges" to tip new energy technology over the line into profitability are nothing new. When oil was discovered in the US in the 1860s, federal subsidies gave that infant, homespun industry a big financial boost as a way to replace expensive, imported whale oil lighting, lubrication and other applications across the US. Nuclear energy received similar government boosts in the 1950s and 1960s, while cheap base-load fuels like coal continue to receive aid to this day.

Myth #3: You can’t charge your electric car with solar or wind energy.
It's true that operating an electric car in a region that generates most of its electricity from coal means you are really driving a coal-powered car. However, an EV charged from a solar-powered home is a green ride.

Renewable portfolio standards for utilities are increasing across the US. Solar and wind generation capacity is increasing. And electric car penetration into the market is also increasing. Up-front costs are creating a bit of a struggle for the individual consumer, but as these market forces increase and combine together, it all has every chance to end up as a win-win situation.

It's currently possible to power your electric car with your own solar array. In areas with excellent solar resources and robust local incentives, some homeowners are installing renewables by the total immersion method—enough solar capacity on the roof to completely offset their annual home usage, and extra capacity up there to charge up that new electric car in the garage. This isn't a valid plan yet where solar resources are weak (Seattle, Upstate New York), but again increasing renewable portfolio standards will eventually provide almost the same effect at the end of the day—electric cars powered (at least mostly) by renewables, with the non-renewable part of the equation significantly cleaned up.

Myth #4: Electric cars will leave you stranded.
If you are contemplating a cross-country drive from New York to LA in your new Tesla Roadster, your planning will need to be meticulous or you will indeed be left stranded. But in the urban areas where EVs are becoming most popular, charging stations are not really an issue, due to both short driving distances and expansion of pay-to-charge services. You can even download an iPhone application to direct you to the nearest charging station.

Google Maps tallies charging stations, too. Many employers are very receptive to providing EV charging capability to their employees while at the office, even if the program starts with a simple extension cord. A full 200-mile charge from flat empty in a Tesla Roadster costs under $6.

By the way, that cross-country EV tour has been successfully accomplished -- many times. In rural areas, EV drivers report that some straight talk at motels and restaurants, a $5 bill and maybe a test drive can open the doors to a variety of electric outlets for charging during lunch or an overnight stay. In many urban areas, though, such measures are no longer even a matter of discussion. You can even charge up at the mall.

Is clean energy really a myth?
No. The simultaneous growth of demand for renewable energy generation, the corresponding drop in production costs, and the stark realization of disastrous effects on the environment from current energy technologies are all working together to launch renewable energy sources to the forefront worldwide.

Let's be realistic—there will be no sudden abandonment of oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear energy sources in the US in favor of solar and wind, only a gradual greening of the most egregious base load sources as renewables are phased in by stages. To imply otherwise is, well, simply absurd.

 

AUTHOR BIO:
Dan Fink has lived off the grid, high in the Northern Colorado mountains, since 1991, 11 miles from the nearest power pole or phone line. He has a BA in Technical Journalism from Colorado State University, and spent 10 years in the field as a renewable energy system consultant, designer and installer. He has been a renewable energy technical author and educator since 2000, and is the Executive Director of Buckville Energy Consulting, the Editor-in-Chief of Buckville Publications LLC and the co-author of the book Homebrew Wind Power.
Dan teaches renewable energy classes throughout the USA.


Bookmark and Share

Get Up to $7,500 for Buying an EV.

by Natalie Pace.

Don’t File Before Checking Out These 7 Important Tax Tips.  

Don’t e-file your return before reviewing the following tax tips. You might be overlooking thousands of dollars in tax credits, retirement account contributions and more. The Obama Administration has given Americans big tax incentives for going green, so if you made any energy efficient improvements, you could qualify. And if you didn’t in 2010, but have been wanting to, most green incentives are still available in 2011.

  1. IRA Contributions:  You can still contribute to your IRA and receive credit for 2010, up until April 15, 2011.
    Learn more about contributing to your IRA NOW on the IRA contribution page at IRS.gov. If you use a software program, like Turbo Tax, they will automatically encourage you to make your IRA contribution before completing your tax form. Your accountant is likely doing the same, and it’s an excellent idea. (Simply search for IRA on the IRS.gov page.) Note that Roth IRA contributions are not tax deductible.
  2. Charitable Contributions. Your charitable contribution is tax deductible, if you file the right form. While contributions to the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis may have to be declared on the 2011 tax return, if you donated to Haiti last year, that can and should be included in the 2010 tax return. For more information, read my article, "Haiti," from the February 2010 ezine, vol. 7, issue 2.

  3. Health Savings Accounts. Here’s another way to increase your assets and beautify your bottom line, while giving less to Uncle Sam AND the insurance company. Health Savings Accounts work best for healthy people who have the ability to purchase catastrophic health insurance, while contributing to a tax-deductible retirement plan that can be invested for gains. Catastrophic insurance could save you hundreds of dollars in insurance premiums per month, some of which can be deposited into your HSA for investments and gains that will eventually become part of your retirement strategy. If you don’t need to dip into this account, it rolls over year after year until you retire. And in the meantime, you also get a write-off for contributing and are not taxed on gains you might make through investing the money. You must be a "qualified individual," but opening a HSA through a discount brokerage, like TD AMERITRADE or Schwab, is easy. To learn more, visit IRS.Gov and enter Health Savings Accounts in the search box.

  4. Free Federal Online Filing is the easiest way to do your taxes. For a list of qualified software companies, click on the FREE File icon on the home page at IRS.Gov. Many of these programs ask as many questions as most accountants and aim to include the deductions you qualify for. And it’s FREE for low-income easy-filers.

  5. Education. You may be able to deduct education costs for yourself and/or a student in your immediate family. You may also be able to take an early distribution from an IRA without paying the early distribution penalty and additional taxes, if the withdrawal was made to cover a qualified education expense. And if the education is work-related, you may qualify for a business deduction. Most of the benefits apply to higher education. For additional information, read publication 970 at IRS.gov.

  6. Electric Vehicles and Energy Efficiency. If you purchased an EV, made energy efficient improvements to your home (like insulation or window improvements) or installed solar or wind energy products, you could qualify for a quite large tax credit. EV credits go up to $7,500 and wind/solar power products can be as high as 30% of the purchase price. For more information, go to the IRS Tax Tip # 2011-49, which was issued on March 11, 2011. If you want to buy an EV, but haven’t yet, this tax credit is good now through 2014, or whenever the auto manufacturer sells 200,000 vehicles, while the Residential Energy Efficient Property Credit is good through 2016.

    At $4.40/gallon, it costs $66 to gas up, whereas reecharging an electric

    car costs about $5. The Tesla Roadster can go 244 miles on a charge (according to the EPA). So, $5 is equal to a $66 tank of gas. If you gas up once a week, you're spending $3500 annually, which could be replaced with a bill of $260. Combine that with up to $7500 tax credit for purchasing an EV and you get your dough back quite fast.

  7. FAQs. Wonder what tax laws have changed this year? What age your kids must be before you can no longer declare them? If you can claim a college student as a dependent? Check out the Frequently Asked Questions page of IRS.Gov. Again, remember that the online tax services update their software annually to reflect changes in the law, so if you are using one, it’s much more time efficient than trying to read all of the fine print on your own.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com, Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace, and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

.


Bookmark and Share

Investor IQ Test. Should You Sell in May and Go Away?

by Natalie Pace.

12 Questions. Includes New Data on Monthly and Election Year Market Performance.

Test your knowledge of economics, stocks, returns and more. Learn more and increase your return on investment!

  1. What are the top 10 economies in the world?
  2. Which months performed the best on Wall Street for the last five years?
  3. What was the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last five years?
  4. Which months were the top performers on Wall Street for the last twenty years?
  5. What was the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last twenty years?
  6. Which 30 companies are included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
  7. Which year is the top performer in the election year cycle?
  8. Which year was worse for stocks -- 2007, 2008 or 2009?
  9. Can you still contribute to your IRA for the 2010 tax year?
  10. Which year did China’s economy surpass Japan?
  11. Which country entered the top 10 economies in the world in 2010?
  12. Which two countries fell out of the top 10 economies in the world in 2010?

 Get the answers in the article, "Investor IQ Test. 20 Answers," in this ezine (vol. 8, iss. 4).

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com, Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace, and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.


Bookmark and Share

Pre-IPO Offerings—These Scammers Are Not Your Friends.

Investor Alert by FINRA.org.

Investor demand for shares of the private stock of high-profile social media companies—such as Facebook, Groupon, Twitter and Zynga—has been surging in recent months. Social media has also become the latest scam. In this case, fraudsters dangle the promise of wealth from the sale of "pre-IPO" shares.

It’s no secret that when a promising company emerges or an industry sector becomes "hot," investors typically flock to get a piece of the action.  But what happens when the company is privately held and investors can’t readily buy shares because the company has not conducted an initial public offering of its stock?  Investor demand for shares of the private stock of high-profile social media companies—such as Facebook, Groupon, Twitter and Zynga—has been surging in recent months.  These companies have millions of subscribers and have dramatically changed the way people interact.  But social media has also become the latest hook on which con artists can hang a scam.  In this case, fraudsters dangle the promise of wealth from the sale of "pre-IPO" shares.

For instance, in late December 2010, shortly after the Securities and Exchange Commission settled a civil action, federal prosecutors brought criminal charges against a self-employed securities trader who allegedly bilked more than 50 U.S. and foreign investors out of more than $9.6 million in a series of pre-IPO scams spanning an eight-year period.  We are also aware of other potentially fraudulent schemes that have solicited potential victims by purporting to sell shares of Facebook.

FINRA is issuing this alert to warn investors about pre-IPO scams purporting to offer access to shares of Facebook and other popular, well known private companies. 

Pre-IPO Speculation Always Risky, Can Be Illegal
In general, offerings of securities must either be registered with the SEC or meet an exemption under the federal securities laws—otherwise the offering is not legal. "Pre-IPO" speculation involves buying unregistered shares in a private company before the initial public offering of securities—and it can range from risky deals to outright frauds. 

On the legitimate end of the spectrum, a company can sell its unregistered shares in private transactions (often called "private placements"), and such sales to investors are an essential source of capital for American business, particularly small firms. But these Investments can be fraught with risk—including the fact that you can’t be certain the company being touted will actually complete an IPO. This means you cannot be sure whether you will ever be able to sell the shares you purchased.  Separately, the fair market value of your shares may be based solely on speculation. And privately purchased shares typically come with restrictions, such as lock-up periods that prevent you from selling your shares for up to a year even if the company goes public in the interim. In addition, for a private placement to be legal under the federal securities laws, the company and its promoters generally cannot advertise the offering or make solicitations to the general public. And these deals are typically open only to "accredited investors," which includes individuals who have net worth of more than $1 million (excluding the value of their primary residence) or income of more than $200,000 in the current year and each of the preceding two years ($300,000 for couples). 

On the other end of the spectrum, the unregistered shares offered to you could be part of a fraud.  The company might not exist—or, if it does, the promoter might be offering shares he doesn’t have or that he acquired in a questionable transaction.  The fraud could also involve misrepresentations about the company and its prospects, including the likelihood, timing and pricing of any potential IPO. In the criminal case mentioned above, the defendant falsely claimed that he had worked at Goldman Sachs, was a preferred client of the firm and had access to discounted, pre-IPO shares of such well-known companies as AOL, Google, Facebook and Rosetta Stone. 

The bottom line is that many pre-IPO scams involve unlicensed individuals selling unregistered securities—that’s why it’s critical to check out both the promoter and the investment. And pre-IPO offerings that target the general public—especially those that are publicized through "spam" emails—often violate the federal securities laws.

Protect Yourself
Fraudsters would have investors believe that virtually anyone can get in on pre-IPO deals of small, little-known start-ups as well as those of large, popular companies. One sure-fire way to avoid being taken in by an unsolicited offer is to ignore it—regardless of how you heard about it. Someone claiming to have shares of Facebook or some other social networking company may very well be a paid promoter or, more likely, a con artist trying to take your hard-earned money. 

Never rely solely on information contained in an unsolicited fax, email, text message, tweet or other format for social network communications—or in a blog post or online thread. To steer clear of potential scams, follow these tips.

  • Consider the source. If you received an unsolicited offer to invest in a pre-IPO opportunity—by any means—don’t take the bait. It's easy for promoters to make unsubstantiated claims about owning stock or being able to offer you shares of stock they have somehow been able to accumulate.  The stories a con artist might spin are myriad but share one trait—they are all built on lies and deception.
     
  • Always ask: "Why me?" An unsolicited offer to buy pre-IPO shares raises the obvious question: Why would a total stranger tell you about a really great investment opportunity? The likely answer is that there is no such opportunity.
     
  • Be alert to persuasion. Virtually all pre-IPO scams dangle the prospect of exclusive access to eye-popping returns (an example of the "phantom riches" tactic) at a discount (the "reciprocity" tactic) if you act quickly ("scarcity").  Many scams also exploit "source credibility," trying to build your trust by claiming falsely to be with a reputable firm. And others, such as those purporting to involve well-known companies, use "social consensus" to suggest that everyone wants in so the deal must be good.  To learn more about persuasion, read FINRA’s Fighting Fraud 101.
     
  • Verify whether the person touting the stock or investment is licensed. A legitimate investment salesperson must be properly licensed, and his or her firm must be registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the SEC or a state securities regulator—depending on the type of business the firm conducts. To check the background of a broker, use FINRA BrokerCheck. For an investment adviser, use the SEC's Investment Advisor Public Disclosure website. Also, be sure to call your state securities regulator. You can find that number in the government section of your local phone book or by contacting the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA).  
  • Determine if you’re being conned by a convicted criminal. Check the Federal Bureau of Prisons Inmate Locator to determine if a solicitation is coming from someone who has served time in a federal prison. A surprising number of investors are conned each year by career criminals plying the only thing they know how to do. Many states also have similar prisoner locator systems.
  • Be a search engine sleuth.  Use search engines to learn as much as you can about a solicitation and those behind it. For instance, if the individual promoting the investment has a history of fraud or criminal activity, you might find news reports and court documents with details. And, if an investment firm is mentioned, research its address using Internet search engines (even after you to look up the firm in BrokerCheck). It’s possible the fraudsters are using a false or non-existent address or that the address—even a posh-sounding one—leads to a mail stop or a cubbyhole that might be only a desk and a phone. It’s even possible that the fraudster has hijacked the name of a legitimate firm—but the address or phone number provided don’t match with the entity in BrokerCheck.
     
  • Never send money to an individual or firm that you are hearing from based on an unsolicited communication.  Even if you have met or spoken directly with someone selling an investment, never write a check out to the individual. Your money is apt to end up in a personal bank account, never to be seen by the investor.
     
  • Get an unbiased second opinion.  The only way to verify whether a particular pre-IPO opportunity is legitimate is to conduct in-depth due diligence.  To fully understand the terms of the deal and any restrictions that apply, you will likely need to enlist the aid of professionals who are in no way connected to the deal, including an attorney who is skilled in both securities law and contract law or a licensed investment professional.

If a Problem Occurs
If you believe you have been defrauded—or treated unfairly by a securities professional or firm—please send us a written complaint. And if you suspect that someone you know has been taken in by a scam, be sure to give us that tip. Here's how:
 

Online:
File a Complaint (for you)
Send a Tip (for others)

Mail or Fax:
FINRA Complaints and Tips
9509 Key West Avenue
Rockville, MD 20850
Fax: (866) 397-3290

Additional Resources

To receive the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information sign up for Investor News.

 

About FINRA:
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately 643,000 registered securities representatives.

FINRA believes investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the media and public forums, we help investors build their financial knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.


Bookmark and Share

What's the Credit Risk in Muni Bonds?

by Rob Williams.
Rob Williams is the Director of Income Planning, at the Schwab Center for Financial Research

Updated January 25, 2011

Key points

- While municipal bonds aren't risk-free, we don't think fears of a collapse are warranted either.We'll look at the leading arguments against muni bonds today, and provide our thoughts to help inform your investment approach.

- There are many type of muni bonds—we'll explain the differences so you can try to stay away from those with a higher chance of getting in trouble.

Much media attention (in print and online) has recently been given to an alleged collapse of municipal bonds. This is even more today than it was when we published the original version of this article in June 2010. Unfortunately, much of the analysis seems to view the entire muni-bond marketplace as a single vast—and troubled—sector.

We don't believe that's true, or that an outbreak of municipal bond defaults is likely. To explain why, let's look at four of the primary arguments against munis, and why we think they're overblown.

1. Munis are no longer a safe haven—defaults are rising, with more to come. It is true that defaults in some areas of the muni-bond universe are rising. But they're rising from effectively zero—at least for the safest-sector bonds—and have been largely confined to the riskiest, most-speculative muni sectors.

There are more than 60,000 individual state and local governments, districts, authorities and other issuers active in municipal bond markets today, with nearly $3 trillion in debt outstanding, according to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board. Through December 1, there was $4.25 billion of muni debt in default in 2010, or about 0.15% of the total market, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Municipalities with major problems have dominated headlines, including Jefferson County, Alabama, the cities of Vallejo, California and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania and others. Not to mention entire states like California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York, which do face major challenges, but are still far from any real chance of default on long-term bonds, in our view.

Land-secured assessment and other special-purpose districts are special tax jurisdictions that are usually created to overlap new real estate developments to pay for roads and other infrastructure. In many of the troubled issues, homes were never built, or those that were were hit hard by foreclosures. Most never carried a bond rating, and those that did usually carried very low, speculative-grade ratings. Very few non-institutional or non-accredited investors hold bonds of this kind.

The other riskiest sector has been healthcare—small public hospitals, healthcare districts, nursing homes and other public-health sectors faced with considerable business risk. Roughly half of the municipal market consists of government "general obligation" (GO) or other tax-secured bonds, while most of the rest are revenue bonds, secured by specific projects or government enterprises.  Healthcare and public-health related bonds fall into the latter camp, which is more varied, and business-driven, than general government bonds.

Bottom line: If you do happen to hold or are considering the types of munis described in the sidebar, reconsider—the risks may be too high. Otherwise, a well-diversified portfolio focused on higher-quality state and local as well as essential-service revenue bonds should provide you with ample credit protections. That said, you always want to monitor any bonds that you do hold using bond-rating alerts as a line of first defense.


2. Lack of political will to make tough choices while deep budget holes get deeper... While state and city budget troubles may be the worst in memory across the United Sates, budgetary stress is one thing—actual default is another. From a bond-holder's perspective, we're encouraged by the magnitude of budget cuts made during the past several years as government revenues have plummeted. This is in contrast to countries like Greece that haven't been doing the painful, but necessary, cutting.

California, for example, cut huge chunks out of its 2009 and 2010 budget and the new governor has proposed another $19 billion in cuts to close the gap for 2011. The state of New York (and others) have grappled with, and enacted, painful cuts of similar magnitude.

Most analysts agree that bridging these deficits will continue to require belt-tightening. Unlike the US government, local governments and states are restricted from running budget deficits or funding those deficits with long-term debt.

In addition to budget deficits, states and municipalities have significant future non-bonded liabilities (primarily pensions and other employment-related entitlements), which may require deep cuts or renegotiation with unions given the rising long-term costs. Many governments are tackling this problem proactively, with New Jersey being a good, high-profile example. Governor Chris Christie was featured prominently in a December 60 Minutes segment highlighting the need to rationalize long-term pension costs.

Current budget troubles aren't a debt problem, however—at least not in the traditional sense. The current average percentage of state and local budgets dedicated to paying on bonds or debt is between 3% and 5% of their annual budgets. Debt service, i.e. payment on bonds, is a relatively small expenditure for most state and local governments, yet one of the most important. Nonetheless, unfunded pension liabilities are a major challenge, and belt-tightening is required. But there is time—political will permitting—and flexibility to adjust. The political part is the big if, and will be handled very differently depending on political climate and jurisdiction.

The amount of media attention to this issue is actually encouraging, we believe. The media has become the new bond vigilante, focusing on problems to help force tough decisions when bond markets alone haven't. If particular local governments don't respond, look elsewhere for muni bonds—risky pension and public entitlements are a major public policy challenge.

Bottom line: Stick to issuers with local economies that are rebounding and management that shows signs of making cuts when necessary. If you don't want to make those choices, or don't have the information to do so effectively, diversify by issuer or choose professional credit management via municipal bond mutual funds.


3. This time it's "different"
The past doesn't always tell us the future, but it often rhymes. Sounds trite, but remembering it may help you avoid potholes more skillfully than if you just ignore historical trends.

The past 40 years have been a relatively benign time for the US economy, as well as for state and local government bond issuers. From 1970 to the end of 2009, only 54 out of tens of thousands of munis bonds rated by Moody's defaulted. Of those 54, only three were GO bonds, while 74% were related to healthcare or housing finance projects, not GO or essential-enterprise revenue debt.1

Going back further, during the Depression, 15% of the annual average of muni debt outstanding between 1929 and 1937 defaulted. Repayment, however, was rapid and almost always in full.2 Importantly, special assessment district bonds (discussed above) and business-sensitive revenue bonds (healthcare, irrigation districts, and other less essential services) were most impacted. Towns, states and school districts had the lowest proportionate impact.

Bottom line: Historical statistics during the past 40 years are encouraging, but only count for so much if you believe these are indeed different times. Nonetheless, they do provide further evidence that muni sectors have enjoyed significant credit strengths and flexibility in varied economic climates.


4. We used to have bond insurance—now there's no backstop
As recently as two years ago, more than 50% municipal bonds were protected by insurance from one of a handful of major bond insurance companies. Today, there's only one active insurer (Assured Guaranty), and less than 10% of new munis issue issued in 2009 came with bond insurance, according to The Bond Buyer.

We've entered the era of government "bailouts" as well. If governments fail, who's left to bail them out? Even if the federal or state governments could step in to help in some cases, they couldn't possibly help everyone—and we don't think they should. Most state and local governments will need to solve their own problems.

Bottom line: Don't count on insurance or federal protection when considering any individual bond investment. Without backstops, credit analysis matters more. If you feel comfortable with the details of individual issuers, stick to high credit quality, or outsource the work to professionals via mutual funds.


In summary—what this means to you
There are good reasons for some investors to consider muni bonds, despite media noise to the contrary. But there are still risks—to give yourself the best chance for success, keep these principles in mind:

  • Stick with quality. Criticism aside, credit ratings on municipal bonds from the three major ratings agencies (Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's) have generally been very effective. Use them as a starting point for your own analysis.
  • Know what you're buying. It may seem obvious, but it's less easy to achieve in practice. The more than 60,000 different issuers in the muni market can issue bonds under a variety of names, secured by a variety of different revenues. Know the differences. The best way is to read the bond's "official statement" (i.e. prospectus) on Emma.MSRB.org, or available from a Schwab fixed income specialist.
  • Outsource credit selection for lower-quality muni bonds. Most investors simply don’t have the tools to evaluate lower-quality, higher-risk muni bonds, and we generally don’t believe these are suitable for most muni investors. If you do choose to explore these types of munis, we suggest choosing professional management, in the form of mutual funds or managed accounts, to add higher-risk individual bond holdings to your muni portfolio.
  • Don't overreact to news. We're living through challenging times, but there's no need to overreact to negative news that may have no impact on bonds you actually own. If you're truly concerned about widespread near-term defaults on munis, then reconsider your investment philosophy and risk profile. But if you do choose to avoid munis, you'll be giving up the positives as well, including tax advantages, relative stability and the income stream.
  • Monitor your holdings. If you do hold individual muni bonds, you can do the following:
    • Clients can sign up for bond-rating alerts providing notification when a bond's rating changes. If a bond has been recently downgraded, there's probably a good reason why.
    • For the latest information on individual bonds, start with the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, the expanding repository of muni bond disclosure. If there's a material negative event reported recently, be wary.
    • Finally, you can call a Schwab Fixed Income Specialist at 800-626-4600 for a close look at your entire muni portfolio by rating, maturity, recent events and any other information that might help maintain a healthy portfolio.

1. Moody's, "U.S. Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2009," February 2010.
2. George Hempel and the National Bureau of Economic Research, The Postwar Quality of State and Local Debt, published in 1971.


Important Disclosures
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. 

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Diversification strategies do not assure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Company, Inc.

(0111-0652)

Watch a video, called Perspectives on Today’s Muni Market with Rob Williams, by clicking on the link.

 


Bookmark and Share

How Do I Know When to Sell and What Price is Right?

Investors Ask Natalie.

Dear Natalie:

What do you mean when you say, "Take your profits early and often?" I just keep seeing that verbiage in the Hot News on Cool Stocks article and wondered how to follow the advice.

Signed,

I Love Stocks

 

Dear Lover:

If you look at the chart below of returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last ten years, you can easily see that if you are buying and holding your stocks and funds, you haven’t made any money. There have been some wild swings up and down, but essentially, the index is barely above where it started a decade ago.

Volatility, but overall flat performance, can be true of individual stocks as well. Take, for instance, the case of one very popular large cap stock, Google – a company worth $184 billion. As you can see from the chart below, Google is trading at the same price today as it was a year ago.

However, if you purchased at the 52-week low of $433.63 and sold at the high of $643, then you could have earned up to 48% gains. In other words, there is plenty of volatility throughout the year, offering gains to the opportunistic buyer and profit-taking seller.

The same is true for smaller stocks, like the very popular LED nanotech companies. Veeco Instruments is trading near the same price it was a year ago. However, if you purchased at the low of $29 and sold at the high of $54.50, your gains were 84%.

ENER1 has zigzagged all over the map over the last 52-weeks, creating multiple opportunities to make money.

I’m mentioning stocks here that I’ve already pre-screened, using the Stock Report Card and asking the Four Questions, by the way. Once I know the company’s business, understand why it is superior to the competition and I am sure that I have picked the leader in the industry, then it is simply a matter of buying low and selling high.

Now, with regard to your nest egg, trying to time the exact highs and lows of your fund purchases and sales can be very, very time consuming. Also, you’ll have the tendency to second guess yourself all the time – kicking yourself for not buying on the exact low or not selling at the exact high. That is why, although I say "take your profits early and often" in the Hot Stocks article, I encourage annual rebalancing in your nest egg, rather than active trading.

Here’s how annual rebalancing can achieve the same goal of "buying low and selling high."

Let’s say you are 50 years old, with $500,000 in your IRA, and you have your nest egg diversified into the following pie chart in January of 2008. (January 2008 was a time when I recommended overweighting 20% safe, to avoid losses in the Great Recession).

By January of 2009, those who were not properly diversified would have lost half of their holdings, with a nest egg value of $250,000. (Sound familiar? I’m sure you know people who experienced this.) The Dow dropped to a low of 6547 by March of 2009.

Your diversified nest egg, however, would still be worth $402,325. Your bonds (the safe portion of your IRA) and your gold fund would have performed well, while only 27% of your nest egg was at risk for losses up to 39%. Watch the testimonial of Nilo Bolden on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM for a firsthand testimonial of this.

The formula of annual rebalancing means that in January of 2009, it is time to realign your pie chart. You could still keep an additional 20% safe, if you wish, but you’d need to beef up your other slices of the pie in order to have 30% in stocks, since your stock holdings had lost value. You might also want to change the four hot industries a bit. I substituted Technology for Biotechnology when ObamaCare became the hot topic. Using this formula, there would be $281,627 safe, with $120,697.50 (30%) sliced into 10 even slices of the pie – six funds diversified by size and style and four hot industries.

By comparison, the 50-year-old who only had $250,000 of the original $500,000 would have to "sell low" if they wanted to diversify at this time. In order to get some of their money safe, which is very important at all times, they would have to sell some stocks at the worst possible time. I’m sure you know many people who were in this unfortunate position. However, because your nest egg was properly balanced and protected to begin with, you had too much safe at the beginning of January 2009, and were prepared to buy in at a time when stocks were very low priced.

And that buy-in at the low would have paid off fantastically the following year when you went to rebalance again in January of 2010. The S&P500 gained 23.45% in 2009. NASDAQ was up 40%. Australian stocks soared 60%, as did technology funds. Even clean energy earned gains of 26%, while gold was one of the lowest performers, at 24%, that year. By the beginning of 2010, your nest egg had almost fully recovered from the "Great Recession" with a value of $466,784. With 13% gains in the S&P500 in 2010, the portfolio heads into 2011 back in the black, with at least $510,821 in assets – more when you factor in the hot industries.

Meanwhile, the person who had everything all-in on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the most popular holdings on Wall Street) would have earned 15% gains in 2009, bringing their holdings up to a value of $287,500. (The DJIA earned only 15% in 2009.) With 9.5% gains in 2010, the value inches forward to $314,812.50, still 37% lower than the value at the beginning of 2008.

One person was sitting pretty and ready for more gains in 2010 and 2011; while the other is going to have to wait a very long time to recover at the dismal rate of return of the Dow – a very sad story indeed. In some cases, those kind of losses prevent people from being able to retire. In even worse scenarios, the family home can be lost.

The chart below tells the story even better. You can see clearly that buy and hold was a great strategy between 1970 and 2000, but since 2000, the only one making money was the person who was properly diversified and annually rebalancing. This strategy worked fantastically during the Dot Com Recession of 2000, the Great Recession of 2008, the bull markets in between and will continue to work great going forward.

Take Away Tips.

  1. For your investments in individual stocks, take your profits early and often.
  2. For your nest egg, diversify, keep at least a percentage equal to your age safe, know what is safe (i.e. not stocks or bond funds), add in hot industries and rebalance annually.

There is a saying on Wall Street: "A rising tide lifts all ships."  I say, "A sinking tide grounds all ships, too."  So, no matter what the potential for your company is, it's a good idea to have a strategy for capturing gains.  Otherwise, you might watch them drift out to sea. 

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com, Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace, and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.



Bookmark and Share

Investor IQ Test. 12 Answers.

by Natalie Pace

Test your knowledge of economics, stocks, returns and more. Learn more and increase your return on investment!

  1. What are the top 10 economies in the world?
  2. The World’s Largest Economies
    Ranked by GDP 2010

    Ranking

    Country

    GDP (annual)

    1.

    USA

    $14.7 trillion

    2.

    China

    $9.9 trillion

    3.

    Japan

    $4.3 trillion

    4.

    India

    $4.046 trillion

    5.

    Germany

    $2.96 trillion

    6.

    Russia

    $2.229 trillion

    7.

    Brazil

    $2.194 trillion

    8.

    United Kingdom

    $2.189 trillion

    9.

    France

    $2.16 trillion

    10.

    Italy

    $1.8 trillion

    11.

    Mexico

    $1.56 trillion

    12.

    Korea

    $1.467 trillion

    13.

    Spain

    $1.4 trillion

    14.

    Canada

    $1.3 trillion

    15.

    Australia

    $890 million

    Source: CIA.gov World Fact Book

  3. Which months performed the best on Wall Street for the last five years? April, March, July, December and then September (see below).
  4. Monthly Returns of the S&P500 (annualized)
    1991 Through 2010

    Month

    20 years

    10 years

    5 years

    Price Close 2010

    January

    0.09%

    -1.61%

    -2.89%

    1073.87

    February

    -0.56%

    -2.37%

    -2.75%

    1104.49

    March

    1.28%

    1.05%

    3.19%

    1169.43

    April

    2.01%

    2.71%

    4.23%

    1186.69

    May

    0.96%

    0.66%

    -0.46%

    1089.41

    June

    -0.66%

    -2.26%

    -3.15%

    1030.71

    July

    0.605%

    0.062%

    2.12%

    1101.63

    August

    -0.40%

    -0.18%

    0.65%

    1049.33

    September

    -0.07%

    -0.94%

    1.86%

    1141.20

    October

    1.61%

    1.44%

    -0.23%

    1183.26

    November

    0.54%

    1.66%

    -0.95%

    1180.55

    December

    2.00%

    1.25%

    1.9%

    1257.64

    Source: Standard and Poor’s data, Natalie Pace data crunch © 2011

  5. What was the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last five years? March, April and May with 7% for the three-month period (on average).
  6. Which months were the top performers on Wall Street for the last twenty years? April, December, October and March.
  7. What was the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last twenty years? March, April and May with 4.25% gains for the three-month period (on average), followed quite closely by October, November and December with 4.15% gains.
  8. Which 30 companies are included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
  9. Dow Jones Industrial Average components
    Effective March 27, 2011

    3M

    Du Pont

    McDonalds

    Alcoa

    Exxon Mobil

    Merck

    American Express

    General Electric

    Microsoft

    AT&T

    Hewlett Packard

    Pfizer

    Bank of America

    Home Depot

    Procter & Gamble

    Boeing

    IBM

    Travelers Companies

    Caterpillar

    Intel Corp.

    United Technologies

    Chevron

    Johnson & Johnson

    Verizon

    Cisco

    JP Morgan Chase

    Wal-Mart

    Coca-Cola

    Kraft Foods

    Walt Disney Co.


    Source: Money.MSN.com

  10. Which year is the top performer in the election year cycle? Over the 10-20 year (and beyond) cycle, the pre-election year is the top performer by far. 2007 ruined this trend for the five-year period, with the onset of the Great Recession.
  11. Election Year Trends of the S&P500
    1991-2010

    Period

    Pre-election years

    Election Years

    Year after election

    2 years after election

    5 years

    3.53%*

    -38.49%*

    23.45%

    13.2%

    10 years

    14.96%

    -14.75%

    4.47%

    1.01%

    20 years

    21.97%

    -2.98%

    10.30%

    5.63%

    Source: Standard and Poor’s data and Natalie Pace data crunch. © 2011

    *The last five years, particularly 2007-2008, reflect the Great Recession. 2008 was a horrible year for stocks, and it dramatically brings down the average in election years. Without 2008, the average election year return for the last 20 years is 5.9%.

  12. Which year was worse for stocks, 2007, 2008 or 2009?
  13. Many people falsely believe, and it is commonly reported (erroneously) that 2009 was a rough year for Wall Street, when, in fact, it was a banner year, with returns of 23.45%. 2008 was the worst year of the Great Recession with negative -38.49% performance in the S&P500. 2007’s excellent rally was stopped in November. The S&P500 posted 9% gains between January and October 2007, but was stopped in November 2007 when Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup disclosed their massive exposure to subprime loans and fired the executives responsible. 2007 ended the year with 3.53% gains, largely due to market losses in November.

  14. Can you still contribute to your IRA for the 2010 tax year?
  15. Yes. The cutoff date is April 15, 2011. For more information and details on which IRA is right for you, visit IRS.gov.

  16. Which year did China’s economy surpass Japan? 2010. See below for the Top Economies in 2009, and note that Japan was still ranked #2 in the world then.
  17. GDP 2009

    Ranking

    Country

    GDP (annual)

    1.

    USA

    $14 trillion

    2.

    Japan

    $5.07 trillion

    3.

    China

    $4.9 trillion

    4.

    Germany

    $3.3 trillion

    5.

    France

    $2.6 trillion

    6.

    United Kingdom

    $2.2 trillion

    7.

    Italy

    $2.1 trillion

    8.

    Brazil

    $1.6 trillion

    9.

    Spain

    $1.5 trillion

    10.

    Canada

    $1.3 trillion

    10.

    India

    $1.3 trillion

    12.

    Russian Federation

    $1.2 trillion

    13.

    Australia

    $925 million

    14.

    Mexico

    $875 million

    15.

    Korea, Republic of

    $836 million


    Source: World Bank.

  18. Which country entered the top 10 economies in the world in 2010? Russia.
  19. Which two countries fell out of the top 10 economies in the world in 2010? Spain and Canada. .

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com, Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace, and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.


Bookmark and Share

2011 Company of the Year.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks Report.

March 29, 2011

2011 Company of the Year: Satcon (SATC).

General Stock Market Performance

Monday, 1.2.2008

Monday, 1.2.2009

Monday 1.3.2011

Friday, 3.29.2011

Gains 3-yr, 2-yr & 3 mo.

Dow: 13,044.12

Dow: 9,034.69

Dow: 11,577.43

Dow: 12,273

-6% & +36% & +6%

Nasdaq: 2,609.63

Nasdaq: 1,632.21

Nasdaq: 2,676.65

Nasdaq: 2,750

+5% & +69% & +3%

S&P: 1,447.16

S&P: 931.80

S&P: 1,257.62

S&P: 1,317

-9% & +41% & +5%


Wall Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:

Index

Low

High

Dow Jones Industrial Average

6,547 (3.9.09)

14,164 (10.9.07)

NASDAQ Composite Index

1,114 (10.9.02)

5,060.34 (3.10.00)

Hot News on Cool Stocks Important Data
Up to 15X gains on U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ Doubled the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains from 2009-2011
NASDAQ Has Outscored Gold 2009-2011, 69% to 56%
13 out of 14 Company of the Month features from 2010 posted gains. Woo hoo!
Gold tops stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years.

Compare those returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills and gold over the last 30 years.

Market Update:
2011 Company of the Year: Satcon (SATC).
Since this is a pre-election year, I want to pick the Company of the Year early, in time for investors to capitalize on potential gains all year long.

What’s to love about Satcon? Almost everything. I’ve outlined a number of things that make this company the ideal choice below. Also, be sure to read my feature article from March 2011, entitled, "$100/Barrel Oil Fuels Interest in Clean Energy (Again)," when I first featured Satcon.

Click here to review a Solar Converter Stock Report Card. Satcon is the star of 2011 for the following reasons.

11 Reasons Why Satcon is the 2011 Company of the Year

  1. One of the biggest reasons for featuring green grid leader Satcon is that high oil prices, a recent oil spill and a recent nuclear crisis have fueled renewed interest in solar and wind energy. During the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in March of 2011, clean energy stocks rose in value, while the markets zigzagged, with a downward trend.
  2. Satcon has marquise brand customers, including Google, Suntech, SunEdison, PG&E, Chevron and Bank of America.
  3. Satcon has the first and best ‘panel to grid’ solar converter systems.
  4. Sales more than tripled in 2010.
  5. Institutional buyers have been lining up, including BlackRock. BlackRock purchased almost 7 million shares, representing about 6% of Satcon, on February 8, 2011.
  6. The company switched from cash negative to cash positive in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Satcon is on track for a forward P/E of 9.76, which is low for a company experiencing such outstanding growth.
  7. Customers are worldwide, with $97 million of sales coming in from the international community.
  8. 2011 order backlog is $103 million. (Be aware that contracts can be cancelled without penalty in most cases, however.)
  9. Dr. Leo Casey, Satcon’s CTO, is the chairman of the High-Megawatt Inverter Program at the Dept. of Energy and National Institute of Science and Technology.
  10. Gross profit margins are improving at a dramatic pace, from 6.1% in 2009 to 25.4% in 2010, due to increased volumes during the period, lower material costs on many of Satcon’s core products and the continued expansion of Satcon’s manufacturing capacity and international supply chain.
  11. Leader of the pack: Satcon competes with Siemens (and other companies) in this space, but has established itself as the go-to company for innovation, reliability and follow-through. You can see this clearly in the earnings growth. Satcon sales have tripled, outpacing the competition.

Satcon is currently trading at $3.73/share, however patient buyers have been able to buy in as low as $3.16/share earlier this month.

Full Disclosure: I own shares of Satcon. Satcon was added back to the Hot News list on March 1, 2011.

Investor Alerts:

1. OPEC: On October 14, 2010, OPEC released a press release stating that they had agreed upon a new "long term strategy." The details of that strategy were scheduled to be released at the December 11, 2010 OPEC meeting in Quito, Ecuador, but were not. OPEC never responded to my inquiry requesting details and/or the summary of the new LTS (which was sent on December 11, 2010). There is speculation that the strategy will be going from the U.S. dollar valuation to a "basket of currency." If that occurs, it will likely be distressing to investors, which OPEC and government leaders are completely aware of. Watch and wait, but definitely be aware of the potential.

2. Debt: Refer to the CIA’s World Fact Book for a listing of debt to GDP ratio by country. The U.S. isn’t in the worst shape, but we are adding to the deficit every year and approaching levels that were problematic for PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), Japan and other countries. Current debt to GDP (excluding $4.5 billion held by our federal government) was 63.6% in 2010, according to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.

3. Real Estate:
There were 2.9 million foreclosure filings in 2010. Foreclosure filings in 2009 were 2.8 million, with 2.3 million in 2008 and 1.3 million in 2007. 13 million homes could change hands before this real estate correction is over, as foreclosures are predicted to continue apace in 2011 and 2012. This likely means that there will not be much upside in real estate values until 2013.

4. 911 Investor Alert: Bonds:
Inflation and interest rates have yet to weigh on the bond market (preview of coming attractions), however debt has already begun to take its toll. Don’t be suckered into muni bonds or any other bond before understanding the debt load of the entity and the fiscal health/capacity to make good on the bond. I penned multiple articles and interviewed countless experts in 2010 on bonds. Peruse the archives and read all of them!

5. Gold: The International Monetary Fund will be selling up to 191.3 metric tons of gold on the open market, a policy they announced (and began) in February of 2010. For a brief history of gold and information on which countries are the biggest holders of gold, read, "The Gold Crash of 1980," from the September 2010 ezine, volume 7, issue 9.

So is There Anything Good Out There?
Yes, believe it or not, there are some excellent areas in the economy. My 2009 Company of the Year, U.S. Gold, has posted up to 15X gains. 13 out of 14 Companies featured in my Company of the Month articles in 2010 were winners. Your nest egg has almost fully recovered from the Great Recession. If you have a great credit rating and can get a loan, there are areas of the country where you can buy cash positive, low risk income property. And even if you’re in trouble, in doubt, losing a home or declaring bankruptcy, there are some very important things to do to squirrel away as many assets as possible. The best way to learn about these things is to read this ezine top to bottom, read You Vs. Wall Street and register to attend the next Get Rich and Enrich Retreat. Once you have wisdom and education that you should have received in high school, all of this will be easy and can be set up on auto-pilot. Until then, you are vulnerable to more boom/bust markets.

Banks Are Still Failing
There were 157 bank failures in 2010, 140 bank failures in 2009 and 25 in 2008. 26 banks have already failed in 2011 (source: FDIC.gov). Don’t be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of them are fairy tales. (Nonproducing loans are carried off the books; TARP and other Federal Reserve swaps are about as easy to figure out as the origin of the life.) However, the $600 billion that the Federal Reserve is putting in the mega-bank coffers between November 2010 and May 2011 should help their earnings reports shine up real nice. 13 million homes could be lost between 2007 and 2012 and not all of them hitting the financial statements with as much force as they should...

Track Record of our Reporting
While the markets are still down significantly since their high in October of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record before, during and after the Great Recession – in bear and bull market years. 92 positions listed over the last four years – 79% -- have delivered impressive gains, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than it was in 2007 (when it cracked through 14,000)! Only twenty-five of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given the market gyrations of more than 7000 point swings since 2008.

Remember that the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice a year, not trying to market time.)

4 out of 7 Company of the Year selections more than doubled.  My 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware), up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 15X ROI for U.S. Gold, respectively. MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders that year.   So five out of seven Company of the Year selections were superperformers. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.  (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)

Some of my best picks include: U.S. Gold (UXG) 15X return on investment, Google (GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. 13 out of 14 companies featured in the Company of the Month articles in 2010 earned gains – 93%!

The NataliePace.com ezine was the first to list the following 911 alerts:

  1. Muni bond and bond funds 911 Investor Alert in Sept. 2010.
  2. 2008 Recession (Get Safe)
  3. Trim back on Faded Blue Chips in 2006
  4. Get out of Dodge (real estate) in 2005
  5. Google at the IPO! (May 2004)
  6. To get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003

Market Movers:
The Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." The next FOMC meeting takes place on April 26-27, 2011.

GDP Growth Rates: Third estimate 4th quarter 2010 GDP growth came in at 3.1% (better than expected). 1st quarter 2011 estimates will be released on April 28, 2011 at 8:30 a.m. ET. 3Q 2010 GDP growth was 2.6%. 2Q 2010 was 1.7%.  1Q 2010 was 3.7%.

These release days tend to be very active on Wall Street.  For more information on GDP growth and other important economic statistics, go to the BEA.gov website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section often.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:

  1. FOMC Information: Interested in reading the press release of the March 15, 2011 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Go to FederalReserve.gov to read! According to the Committee, "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually... The recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations."

The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2011-2012 calendar is: April 26-27, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), June 21-22, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), August 9, 2011 (Tuesday), September 20, 2011 (Tuesday), Nov. 1-2, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), December 13, 2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.), March 13, 2012 (Tuesday), April 24-25 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 19-20 (Tuesday-Wednesday), July 31 (Tuesday), September 12 (Wednesday), October 23-24 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2013 (Tuesday-Wednesday).

2. Calendar Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. You will find great opportunities to attend the most exclusive business and Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and radio shows and other educational opportunities – many are FREE! Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.

Don’t miss the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com. Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen back to any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod casts and are FREE!

BlogTalkRadio offers a Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing questions. Be sure to keep a list of your questions as they come up, and join our ongoing dialog on peace and prosperity, getting rich and enriching, green investing, the Thrive Budget and more on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.

3. Survey Results: Each month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your needs and desires. This month, we want to know about your broker experience. Do you love your broker, or did your nest egg crack? Cast your vote on our survey page.

4. Euro interest rates: ECB rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement are scheduled for April 7, 2011 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (April 20, 2011 after that.)

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education" money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t have mastery over.

Hot News List (highlighted).  Be sure that you are buying low.
American Superconductor (AMSC) added 2.14.11
AOL (AOL) added 2.14.11
Cree (CREE)
ENER1 (HEV)
Green Dot (GDOT) added on 4.1.11
Satcon (SATC) added 3.1.11

Profit-Taking:
LDK Solar (LDK) +143%

DELETIONS (Take your profits early and often):
None

HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS LIST

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

3.29.11

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

American Super-conductor

No

AMSC

$27.77

$24.28

(3.14.11)

$24.38

$38.88

$24.35

-13% &

flat

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3.

AMSC is a leader in renewable energy, providing proven, megawatt-scale wind turbine designs and electrical control systems. The Company also offers a host of Smart Grid technologies for power grid operators that enhance the reliability, efficiency and capacity of the power grid, and seamlessly integrate renewable energy sources into the power infrastructure. These technologies include superconductor power cable systems, grid-level surge protectors and power electronics-based voltage stabilization systems. The Company operates in two business segments: AMSC Power Systems and AMSC Superconductors.

3Q 2011 released on 2.3.11:

$114 million in revenues, an increase of 42% over last year. Net income tripled, from $5 million a year ago to $16 million.

$243 million cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities.

As of December 31, 2010 and March 31, 2010, AMSC had backlog of approximately $883 million and $588 million, respectively. The increase in backlog was primarily the result of a substantial new order received from AMSC’s largest customer, Sinovel Wind Co., Ltd. ("Sinovel"), a manufacturer of wind turbines based in China. Based on this level of backlog and our pipeline of business, we believe we are well positioned to continue our growth.

73% sales are derived from one customer – Sinovel, increasing risk level.

AOL

Yes

AOL

$21.22

$19.37

$19.65

$29.45

$19.61

-7% &

flat

Read "AOL" from Vol. 6, issue 12.

AOL purchased Huffington Post for $315 million in Feb. 2011 (Huff generates upwards of $50 million). Perhaps the biggest value is that AOL will have Arianna’s personal vision overseeing the integration of the sites’ content on its various sites and holdings. AOL owns Moviefone, Mapquest, among other popular destinations.

Per Nielsen Net Ratings, AOL is the 10th most trafficked "web parent companies" in the United States, with more time online than the other top 9, at 51 minutes per person.

While Tim Armstrong has his work cut out for him redefining this brand, he has made great strides to increase profitability and improve the customer experience on AOL. One subtle change that AOL is using includes folding ads into the headlines in a fairly unobtrusive way. Campbell’s is now offering Campbell’s Kitchen, with Sunday Dinner Recipes and a recipe featured on the home page/headline slot. The 1st 6 of 13 headlines on AOL are headline articles, while thereafter the ads start kicking in, too. (There were five ads interspersed with 13 total headlines on 2.11.11, including a Chevy Volt ad.) According to CEO Tim Armstrong, speaking in an interview with CNBC on Feb. 2011, the day AOL purchased the Huffington Post, "AOL is planning on becoming the largest premium content company on the Internet. We are going to deliver the best content experience for consumers."

 

AOL announced 4Q and FY results on Feb. 2, 2011. Full Year Revenue was $2.4 billion, down 26% from a year ago. Net loss was $782 million. (Most of this Net loss was $1 billion in 2Q 2010 – restructuring related.)

AOL renewed and expanded its global partnership with Google for the provision of search services to AOL Properties. AOL and Google agreed to work to expand the partnership to include mobile search and Google will feature AOL content on YouTube.

AOL (and its properties including Moviefone and Mapquest) is in the top 10 trafficked sites in the U.S., next to Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Facebook, eBay, News Corp. and Interactive Corp. The fairly new CEO is a former key player in Google’s massive growth. Can the company create money out of traffic?

"AOL is working hard to redefine the consumer experience on the Internet,"said Tim Armstrong, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "In Q3, AOL continued on the path towards better health through targeted acquisitions and smart dispositions, meaningful product improvements, site relaunches, and strategic partnerships, all of which will enable us to execute more quickly against our strategy."

Cree

Yes

CREE

$52.10

$50.78

(2.1.11)

$45.26

$83.38

$31.12

-13%

Read "Let There Be Light" and "LED Lighting," from the December 1, and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company. Revenue growth is solid. Sales to Asia are strong. Future likes bright! And the price is finally right.

Press release on 3.23.11: Revenue targets have been reduced to a range of $215 million to $220 million primarily due to lower sales of LED chips and LED components. The stock tumbled 12% immediately, as a result of this news.

Cree announced on 3.21.11 that Bruce Renouard will join the company as senior vice president – sales and business development – a new position.

Expect 3Q earnings the third week of April.

ENER1

Yes

HEV

$3.68

$3.05

$5.36

$2.75

-17%

Read "Earth Hour" in Vol. 8, issue 4 and "Life Begins with Li (Lithium)" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact, high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.

Expect 1Q earnings the second week of May 2011.

4Q Earnings on March 10, 2011: Net sales were $33.1 million in the year's final quarter, an increase of 202% over net sales of $11.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2009.  For fiscal year 2010, net sales were $77.4 million, an increase of 122% over net sales of $34.8 million for 2009.  Net loss for the year was $69 million.

On 1.18.11: Ener1 announced a JV deal with Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co. to produce 40,000 battery backs in China by 2014. ENER1 owns 40% of the venture and will contribute intellectual property and technical expertise. Wanxiang will contribute the factory and labor (in China). China has set a target to produce 500,000 electric vehicles by the end of t2012, so the tea leaves look very favorable for ENER1.

Ener1 signed a $40 million supply agreement with a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Federal Grid Company (MICEX: FEES) for a bulk energy storage program. Systems will be delivered and installed at the end of the first quarter in 2011 and commissioned in the second quarter of 2011. $36 million of revenue is expected to be recognized in the first half of 2011, $4 million of revenue in 2012.  Basic and diluted net loss per share was $0.18 in the third quarter of 2010 compared to $0.14 in the third quarter of 2009.

 

Investors are concerned about ENER1’s stake in THINK EVs, causing the current pullback in interest. However, the government backing, sales and more remain strong for ENER1.

Green Dot

No

GDOT

$41.25

$41.25

$65.10

$41.13

--

Read "IPO of the Year" from Vol. 7, issue 3.

On March 21, 2011, Green Dot announced that board member W. Thomas Smith, Jr. will not be running for re-election to the board due to his commitments to his firm Total Technology Ventures, LLC.

Shares plunged earlier in the month after Janney Capital Markets analyst Thomas McCrohan issued a Sell rating on Green Dot, with a target price range of $40-$48.

Revenue grew 41% in 2010, however the pace was much more slow toward the end of the year, with sequential growth of only 3% from the 3rd to the 4th quarter.

On 9.20.10, the Los Angeles Business Journal named Green Dot CFO John Keatley CFO of the Year.

4Q 2010 Earnings (Feb. 10, 2011): Total operating revenues increased 32% to $91.8 million for the 4Q of 2010 from $69.6 million for the 4Q of 2009. GAAP net income increased 14% to $7.9 million from $6.9 million one year ago. $167.5 million cash on hand.

"We have continued our mission of providing Americans with access to safe, low-cost, FDIC-insured banking products to handle their daily transactional needs," said Steve Streit, Green Dot’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We made further progress expanding our distribution channels beyond retail when we were selected to serve as a program manager for a U.S. Department of Treasury pilot program whereby Americans can receive their federal tax refunds via direct deposit to a prepaid debit card."

Cool progress and steady, though not stellar growth, in a space that is bound to see a lot more competition (from MasterCard and Visa to name two). WalMart is a partner and investor.

Hoku Scientific

Hawaii

RISK: HIGH

Yes

HOKU

$8.03

$1.75

(3.15.11)

$2.03

$14.55

$1.90

-75% &

+16%

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.

3Q 2010 earnings on 2.10.10: Revenues for the quarters ended December 31, 2010 and 2009 were $1.2 million and $259,000, respectively. Net loss was $3.0 million.

Summarizing the Company's progress during the quarter, Scott Paul, president and chief executive officer of Hoku Corporation, said, "We now expect to incur approximately $600 million of capital costs before we can commence operation of the first 2,500 metric tons of production capacity. With this investment we will also have substantially completed our onsite TCS production facility. From there, we expect to invest up to an additional $100 million to complete the second phase of construction, which will allow us to commission our onsite TCS plant and add an additional 1,500 metric tons of manufacturing capacity. Thus, our revised capital budget for the full, planned 4,000 metric ton plant is now approximately $700 million." HOKU expects to commence shipment of its own material in the second half of calendar year 2011, using 3rd party trichlorosilane (TCS), but "after commissioning our first phase of installed equipment, we expect to pursue three objectives in parallel," according to Paul. "First, we will manufacture and ship polysilicon using 2,500 metric tons of operational production capacity. Second, we will continue construction activities at our on-site chemical plant with the goal of manufacturing our own TCS on-site by the end of calendar year 2011. Finally, we will continue with our second phase of construction, installing deposition reactors and support equipment until we reach our full, planned 4,000 metric tons of production capacity," he wrote in the 1st Quarter 2011 press release.

Hoku’s Chief Technology Officer and co-founder Karl Taft resigned on 11.16.10.

LDK Solar

GREEN

No

LDK

$30.02

$4.94

(3.2.09)

$12.00

$15.10

$4.97

-60% &

+143%

Read the articles, "Green" in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, issue 4.

LDK is benefitting from lots of press on China’s renewable energy policy.

On Feb. 10, 2011, LDK announced they will be selling senior debt notes to pay off prior debt. This will be available in China only (not in the U.S.). (This is likely due to a number of factors, including the relative ease of raising the capital in China and the regulatory environment of the U.S. SEC, which could delay or slow down the raise.)

On January 6, 2011, LDK purchased 70% of Solar Power Inc. for $33 million.

"We are very pleased with this new strategic relationship," said Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "We have known the SPI team for several years and have been very impressed with the quality of their work and the caliber of the customers they serve. We look forward to working closely with the team that is responsible for outstanding solar projects such as the Staples Center and the Aerojet solar farm," Chairman Peng stated. "This transaction also expands our downstream vertical integration opportunities and provides LDK Solar and SPI the opportunity to jointly explore opening manufacturing operations in the U.S. to further enhance SPI's competitive advantage in North America."

On February 1, 2011. LDK closed a follow-on offering of 13.8 million shares at a price of $12.40/share.

On 1.10.11: LDK raised their outlook for annual earnings to revenue in the range of $3.5 to $3.7 billion, with $870 to $910 million for the 4th quarter. In the past, LDK has released their annual reports in April, May or June. There is no call or release scheduled at this time.

"We are benefiting from our diversification strategy as we see increasing contributions from our polysilicon, module and cell businesses.  As we gain further traction in these areas, we expect to experience enhanced top line and earnings growth," according to Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$11.99

$11.00

(2.1.11)

$12.81

$19.31

$9.19

+7% &

+16%

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3.

Expect 1Q earnings report the first week of May 2011.

The Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis have interrupted operations at MEMC Electronics Utsunomiya facility. This factory is 130 miles away from Sendai, so no one was hurt and there is expected to be no real damage. However, MEMC has suspended operations at the plant, pending "conclusion of building and equipment safety inspections and an analysis of potential damage." No update as of press time on March 29, 2011.

On Feb. 25, 2011 it was announced that SunEdison was awarded an additional 31 MW (AC) of Solar Projects by the Ontario Power Authority.

2.9.11: SolarParking Canopy will provide 25-30% of Cal State Bakersfield energy. The 1.2 MW solar parking canopy will generate over 1.6 million kilowatt hours (kWh) of clean energy in the first year of operation and produce over 30 million kWh over 20 years. That is enough energy to power more than 3,100 average U.S. homes for one year. The solar parking canopy will offset more than 29 million pounds of carbon dioxide over the initial 20 years of operation – the equivalent of taking 2,800 cars off the road.

"SunEdison continues to provide smart solar solutions to universities and school systems across our nation," said Jaime A. Smith, U.S. Vice President of Commercial Systems for SunEdison.  "By bringing together our strong financing capabilities along with cutting-edge technologies, SunEdison makes affordable solar solutions a reality for universities like CSUB."

SunEdison said Feb. 2, 2011 that it has agreements in place to install more than 1,400 megawatts of solar panels, doubling its pipeline of projects from 700 megawatts of projects a year ago.

FY results were released on Feb. 1, 2011 at 5:30 p.m. ET. For the full year, GAAP net sales were $2,239.2 million, an increase of 92% from $1,163.6 million in 2009.  GAAP net sales include $420.5 million in 2010 and $3.8 million in 2009 from the SunEdison business. MEMC's GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $11.4 million, or $0.05 per share, compared to a net income of $17.6 million, or $0.08 per share, in the third quarter and a net loss of $7.1 million, or $0.03 per share, in the prior year quarter.  

MEMC ended the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $707.3 million excluding $62.5 million of restricted cash.  "Our fourth quarter results extended MEMC's recent trend of steady improvement, with SunEdison delivering its strongest quarter to date," said Chief Executive Officer Ahmad Chatila. "While semiconductor and solar end markets are dynamic, we are improving our execution while continuing strategic initiatives that will catalyze our growth in 2011 and beyond."

For the full year of 2011, MEMC expects non-GAAP sales in the range of $3.4 – 3.7 billion and earnings per share of $1.00 to $1.30.  MEMC expects GAAP sales in the range of $2.8 - $3.1 billion and earnings per share of $0.25 to $0.55.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

No

PBW

$9.91

$10.67

$11.42

$4.00

+8%

Read "$100/Barrel Oil" from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.

Satcon

2011 Company of the Year

Yes

SATC

$3.77

$3.16

(3.15.11)

$3.73

$5.51

$2.22

Flat &

+18%

Read "2011 Company of the Year," from Vol. 8, issue 4 and "$100/Barrel Oil" from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.

Sunpower

No

SPWRA

$24.83

$13.07 (7.1.10)

$16.78

$34.00

$10.11

-33% &

+29%

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3.

Sunpower panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used Sunpower panels.

Announced 3Q 2010 earnings on November 11, 2010: revenue of $551 million vs. $384 million in Q2 2010. Expect the annual earnings report in mid-March 2011.

" For 2011, we continue to see more demand than supply inour growing Utility and Power Plants (UPP) and Residential and Commercial (R&C) businesses.  Operationally, our Fab 3 joint venture completed initial solar cell production tests, achieving conversion efficiencies of more than 22% and we remain on plan for our 2011 cost reduction programs across the value chain," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO.  

Major recent milestones include:

  • Completed sale of 28 megawatts (MW) of Italian power plants
  • Commenced marketing for approximately euro 200 million of project debt for final phases of the Montalto solar park
  • Awarded 10-MW contract from LS Power to build largest solar plant in Delaware
  • Announced the availability of the company's Oasis power plant block in Europe
  • Announced more than 20 MW of federal government projects in Q3
  • Awarded largest single roof top contract in the U.S. – 3.5 MW for Macy's in Arizona
  • Completed initial cell production at company's 1,400 MW Fab 3 joint venture with AU Optronics

2011 guidance was issued on 11.18.10.

-- 2011 GAAP revenue of $2.65 - $2.85 billion
-- 2011 GAAP gross margin of 19%-21%, Non-GAAP gross margin of 20%-22%
-- 2011 GAAP EPS of $0.35-$0.65, 2011 non-GAAP EPS of $1.75 - $2.05

 

SunPower also announced today that Allianz Renewable Energy Partners IV Ltd. (a wholly owned subsidiary of Allianz SE) has signed a definitive sale and purchase agreement to acquire 100 percent of the equity in SunPower's wholly owned subsidiary, Orsa Maggiore PV Srl, which owns the 15-megawatt (MWp) Solare Roma photovoltaic power plant. SunPower designed and is building the power plant and will provide ongoing operations and maintenance services for the new owner.

Suntech Power Holdings

No

STP

$14.26

$7.24

(12.1.10)

$9.49

$15.55

$7.05

-33% &

+31%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer. 3Q will be announced Nov. 17 before the markets open.

Suntech began manufacturing in the US on Oct. 8, 2010, at its Goodyear, AZ HQ. Dept. of Energy Secretary Steven Chu visited Suntech and reported on it to The National Press.

4Q and FY 2010 earnings (final) were reported on March 8, 2011.

Total 4Q revenues were $945.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2010, representing growth of 27.1% sequentially and 61.9% year-over-year. Full year total net revenues were $2.9019 billion in 2010, representing 71.4% growth year-over-year. Net income for the year was $262.3 million.

Guidance for 2011 is expected to be $3.4-$3.6 billion revenue, with margins increasing to 12%-14%.

David King was named CFO on March 28, 2011. Amy Zhang, the former CFO is resigning to pursue "other opportunities."

On March 21, 2011, Suntech announced a new solar installation on "the roof of the world," in Tibet. The project should be complete by the middle of the year and generate 20,000 MWh annually for Tibetan residents. "With intense sunlight and cool temperatures, Tibet is extremely well-suited for the utilization of advanced photovoltaic technology," said Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Founder, Chairman and CEO. "We're proud to invest in preserving the region's fragile ecosystem by providing an economically-viable and sustainable solution for electricity generation. From the desert sands of Arizona to the peaks of the Himalayas, anyone can look up and harness nature's cleanest and most abundant energy resource."

Deleted Companies 2010-2011:
Deleted 1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10: Galaxy Resources with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21% gains. Deleted 9.13.10: American Superconductor (flat) & AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster busted out in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10: ENER1 was deleted with flat performance. 11.11.10: ENER1 was deleted with 37% gains. VECO was deleted with 2% & 41% gains. 12.1.10: KLIC was deleted with 12% gains. 1.14.11: Advanced Materials was deleted with 30% gains. 2.2.11: BEARX with losses of 14%. 2.14.11: U.S. Gold with 14.5X gains.

Deleted Companies 2008-2009:
60 winners and 9 losers.

Recently Deleted from the Hot News list:
None

Stocks to Watch
Some of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List.  Read carefully to identify which is which! Note that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List. Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company. Never pay retail!

Recent Additions:
Amazon (AMZN) on 3.15.11
Apple (AAPL) on 3.15.11
iShares Chile Fund (ECH) on 2.14.11
Ford (F) on 3.2.11
Google (GOOG) on 3.2.11
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) on 3.15.11
Sears (SHLD) on 3.1.11
iShares PHLX SOX Semi-conductors (SOXX) added on 2.14.11
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 3.1.11
VMWare (VMW) on 3.15.11
U.S. Gold (UXG) on 2.14.11
Wells Fargo (WFC) on 3.15.11

Recent Deletions:
American Superconductor (AMSC) (moved to Hot List on 2.14.11)
Altair Nanotechnology (ALTI) removed 2.14.11
AOL (AOL) (moved to Hot List on 2.14.11)
PowerShares Emerging Markets Index (PIE) on 2.14.11

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

3.29.11

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Allscripts Misys Healthcare Solutions

No

MDRX

$19.94

$20.82

$22.55

$15.65

+5%

Read "Health Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.

Applied Materials

2010 Company of the Year

No

AMAT

$15.32

$15.70

$16.94

$10.27

flat

Read "Let There Be Light" and "LED Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the Year!

Amazon

No

AMZN

$168.07

$174.62

$191.60

$105.80

+4%

Hot company. Buy at a good price.

Apple

No

AAPL

$351.99

$351.11

$364.90

$199.25

Flat

Hot company. Buy at a god price. Also, be aware that Steve Jobs is on medical leave of absence. Tim Cook, current COO, has been running company many times during Jobs’ leaves and investors may be accustomed to having him run the show, if Jobs should announce his resignation. Also be aware that there have been a few scandals of late with regard to the Chinese manufacturing facilities of Apple. At least 58 workers in China claim to be poisoned and are seeking redress from Apple. Get more information at the below Chinese website.

You can read the report entitled "The Other Side of Apple" at http://business-humanrights.org/.

iShares Australia Index

No

EWA

$20.34

$26.16

$26.36

$15.40

+29%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

Baidu

No

BIDU

$124.96

$135.50

$131.61

$54.98

+8%

Hot company. Buy at a god price.

Berkshire Hathaway

No

BRK.B

$85.30

$84.75

$87.65

$68.48

flat

Hot company. Buy at a god price.

Big Lots

No

BIG

$30.28

$43.09

$43.38

$27.82

+43%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6.

For a more impressive discount retailer, check out Ross Stores.

Canadian Imperial Bank

RISK: Medium

No

CM

$65.88

$86.22

$87.26

$61.12

+31%

Refer to the "Banking on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009; Australia was #2.

iShares Chile Fund

No

ECH

$71.85

$70.40

$80.38

N/A

-2%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin American Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

Citigroup

RISK: HIGH

No

C

$2.26

$4.45

$5.15

$3.53

+97%

One of the troubled, bailed out banks…

It’s important to remember that we don’t really have a clue how deep and wide the losses at these bailed out banks are. Most of this is still hidden and the Feds are not releasing the info, nor are the banks…

Eldorado Gold

No

EGO

$10.56

$15.79

$20.23

$11.88

+49%

Read "Investing in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9.

Eldorado is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively growing businesses in Brazil China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. We are one of the lowest cost pure gold producers.

iShares Emerging Markets Index

No

EEM

$39.58

$47.24

$48.62

$35.21

+19%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index

No

EMB

$104.63

$106.46

$114.14

$92.42

+2%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

First Solar

No

FSLR

$144.76

$156.84

$163.32

$98.71

+8%

See "Solar Springs Up Again," article in Vol. 5, issue 4.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details. They still list CdTe as the semiconductor of choice on their website, citing old data from 2004 that this is a good strategy. Be forewarned!

FMC Corp.

No

FMC

$51.36

$83.88

$83.96

$55.64

+64%

Read "Life Begins with Li (Lithium)" from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?," from Vol. 7, issue 2.

1Q earnings will be released on May 2, 2011 (Monday) after the markets close. The webcast and call will be Tuesday, May 3, 2011 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

4Q & FY 2010 earnings announced on 2.7.11: FMC Corporation reported net loss of $53.5 million in the 4th quarter of 2010, versus net income of $62.1 million a year ago. 4Q revenue of $810.5 million was 12 percent higher than the prior year.

Pierre Brondeau, FMC president, chief executive officer and chairman, said, "Our fourth quarter results provided a strong finish to a record year for FMC. Agricultural Products realized higher sales in all major product lines and most key regions. Specialty Chemicals' performance was driven by broad-based volume growth and operating cost reductions in lithium. Industrial Chemicals' performance met expectations and is now strategically realigned and well positioned to deliver sustained higher margins, greater earnings stability and superior return on net assets."

Ford Motor Company

No

F

$14.55

$14.86

$18.97

$4.71

Flat

Read "How Cap and Trade Saved Ford" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive, but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler and GM are present here – lots of debt, pensions and Other Post Employment Benefit Obligations. Ford built cars that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest). And for that they get a big bravo…

Ford’s total debt is over $100 billion and their credit rating is below investment grade, at BB- (as of 2.1.11, by S&P).

On March 15, 2011, Ford is planning to reduce the "automotive" portion of their colossal debt by another $3 billion by redeeming all of the outstanding 6.50% Cumulative Convertible Trust Preferred Securities (liquidation amount $50 per trust preferred security) (NYSE: F PR S) of its subsidiary trust, Ford Motor Company Capital Trust II, at a redemption price of $50.33 per trust preferred security, plus accrued and unpaid distributions of $0.5416667 per trust preferred security. Instead of cash, securities holders may opt for 2.8769 shares per trust preferred security, which amounts to bond holders converting to stock at a price of $17.88/share. The move should save $190 million per year in interest charges. Ford will take a $60 million charge in the 1st quarter as a result of the redemption.

3.1.11: February sales were strong. Ford is offering $204 million in shares to employees as long term incentives.

Galaxy Resources

RISK: HIGH

(off the boards, thinly traded)

No

GALXF

$1.17

$1.33

$1.80

$0.79

+14%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?," from Vol. 7, issue 2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and China. Traded off the boards in the US, but is listed on the Australia Stock Exchange and has listing planned for the Hong Kong stock exchange by March 22, 2011 (the date of the annual meeting). 197 million shares will be issued for the listing in Hong Kong.

According to a press release issued on Feb. 1, 2011, "The The first shipment of spodumene from Mt

Cattlin to an external lithium carbonate producer in China is now scheduled for late in the Q1 2011. The revised schedule is due to delays in receiving the necessary approvals for Esperance Port as well as the ramp up at Mt Cattlin plant being slower-than-expected." You can read an update on Milestones on the Galaxy Resources website. The markets could take the share price lower still, but Galaxy has two strong components – Australia-based company in an emerging market – lithium.

General Motors

No

GM

$33.11

$31.10

$39.48

$33.07

-6%

Read "One Very Hot IPO," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9. Chevy Volt won Motor Trend’s 2011 Car of the Year, but can GM regain market share from worldwide market leader, Toyota? GM may have shed a lot of debt in the bankruptcy filing, however, the company’s profit margins remain less than 1%, at 0.27%... Toyota is almost seven times as profitable, at 1.81% profit margins, with 64% more sales, at $56 billion in sales in the 3rd quarter, as compared to $34 billion in quarterly sales for GM. Nonetheless, the Motor Trend award may lure investors in this year.

Google

No

GOOG

$600.40

$581.73

$642.96

$433.63

-3%

See Vol. 8, issue 2 article, "Big Bites out of Apple and Google," and Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu Your Heroes." Excellent company and great anchor for your large caps in the nest egg, with one huge hitch – the company has just shaken up the board room, appointing Larry Page as the CEO (effective April 1, 2011), moving Dr. Eric Schmidt, whom everyone considers to be the mastermind from Google the search engine to Google the ubiquitous Internet and phone behemoth, to executive chairman. Sergey Brin will handle "strategic projects" without a real title, except "co-founder." Consensus, colossal insider selling has ensued since the announcement.

 

Commenting on these changes, Dr. Eric Schmidt said: "We've been talking about how best to simplify our management structure and speed up decision making for a long time. By clarifying our individual roles we'll create clearer responsibility and accountability at the top of the company. In my clear opinion, Larry is ready to lead and I'm excited about working with both him and Sergey for a long time to come."

On Nov. 30, 2010, The European Union opened an inquiry into Google, investigating whether or not Google violated antitrust laws with their search dominance.

Announced 4Q results on Jan 20, 2011.

Google reported revenues of $8.44 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, an increase of 26% compared to a year ago. GAAP net income in the fourth quarter of 2010 was $2.54 billion, compared to $1.97 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Cash – As of December 31, 2010, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $35 billion.

Headcount – On a worldwide basis, Google employed 24,400 full-time employees as of December 31, 2010.

KLA Tencor

No

KLAC

$47.54

$47.54

$51.83

$26.69

--

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8. With revenue double over last year profit margins of 20%, and P/Es of 15.70, even at this price KLAC seems undervalued. However, in such a volatile market as we’re in, buying low is critically important to ROI. Stays here for now.

Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC, or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.

Kulicke and Soffa Ind.

No

KLIC

$8.71

$9.38

$10.58

$4.03

+8%

Read "Let There Be Light" and "LED Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the Year!

1Q earnings report on 2.1.11: Net revenue of $148.9 million and net income of $15.1 million. 4Q 2010 revenue was $259.3 million and net income was $56 million. This was expected and announced (which is largely why the company was placed on the Cooling Off list).

KLIC has a new CEO & CFO, is moving offices to Singapore and offered earnings guidance of $125 million – down almost 50% from the 4th quarter. Yikes! As might be expected, there is consensus, colossal insider selling…

Consensus colossal insider selling on Nov. 4, 2010.

iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund

No

ILF

$43.92

$52.32

$54.87

$39.21

+19%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin American Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

PowerShares Lux Nanotech

No

PXN

$9.80

$9.55

$10.85

$7.74

Flat

Potential hot industry for your pie chart. Read the 2010 Company of the Year article from December 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 12. Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC, or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.

Netflix

No

NFLX

$200.88

$237.38

$247.55

$62.08

+18%

Read "Blockbuster’s Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5. 80 P/E is too frothy for our taste, especially while Netflix’ content continues to lag behind the competition. Great, innovative company. Not a short. Just don’t want people buying in high.

Oracle

No

ORCL

$33.47

$33.16

$33.59

$21.24

Flat

Read "Big Bites out of Apple and Google" from the February 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2.

iShares MSCI All Peru Index Fund

No

EPU

$34.69

$44.70

$51.35

$29.79

+28%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin American Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

Rio Tinto

No

RIO

$54.60

$70.18

$76.67

$39.30

+28%

Gold, copper and other commodities mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly in Australia. Annual general meeting is May 26, 2010 in Melbourne, Victoria. 4:1 stock split took place on April 30, 2010.

FY 2010 released on Feb. 10, 2011. Record underlying earnings1 of $14.0 billion, 122 per cent above 2009. Net debt reduced to $4.3 billion at 31 December 2010, from $18.9 billion at 31 December

2009. $5 billion share buyback program now through year end 2012. Net earnings are up to $14 billion in 2010, over $4.9 billion in 2009. Chairman Jan du Plessis said “This year’s record results reflect a combination of strong commodity markets, first class assets and excellent operational performance at our managed operations.

Prices improved for nearly all of Rio Tinto’s major commodities: copper prices were up 47 per cent, molybdenum prices were up 45 per cent, gold prices were up 26 per cent and aluminium prices were 31 per cent higher than 2009. Demand and prices for diamonds and minerals improved significantly as the worldwide economy emerged from the global financial recession.

Ross Stores

No

ROST

$35.90

$70.18

$71.81

$45.65

+97%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have been growing steadily in this discount marketplace, especially given the "jobless recovery." Profit margins are slim, however, 7%.

Sears

No

SHLD

$83.42

$80.25

$125.42

$59.21

-4%

Sears is more of a hedge fund than a store these days.

Shutterfly

No

SFLY

$40.67

$50.78

$50.78

$18.43

+24%

Read "Diamonds or Scrapbooking," from the November 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11. PE is 78 – far too high for our taste – especially for a company that will post a loss in the next quarter.

4Q and FY earnings was released on Feb. 2011. Net revenues increased 27% in the 4th quarter 2010, to $166.2 million. GAAP net income for the full year was $17.1 million, compared to $5.9 million a year ago. Cash on hand is $252 million.

Forward outlook for the 1st Q 2011: net revenues of $52-$53 million. GAAP operating loss of $12-13 million.

Skype

No

NA

IPO

IPO

NA

--

Read "High Debt Vs. High Risk," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9. Still a-waiting for this IPO... Most recent report from Wired says the IPO will drop in the second half of 2011. Meanwhile, LinkedIn, GroupOn and Facebook could join the IPO party.

Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile

No

SQM

$36.36

$53.61

$60.33

$30.70

+46%

This is a great company that manufactures silicon for the solar and IT industry. Looking for a better buy-in, after we get through the current down-trending volatility. Announces 4Q 2010 results on March 1, 2011 after the markets close.

Read the article, "Treasure Hunting," in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life Begins with Li (Lithium)," from Vol. 6, issue 4.

SQM began paying a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592 per share, with US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11, 2011.

4Q and FY earnings on March 1, 2011. Revenue was $1.8 billion, 27% higher than $1.438 billion a year ago. Net income was $382.1 million, 13% higher than 2009. Cash on hand = $525 million. $1.7 billion in debt.

Businesses include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium.

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

Beijing, China

Small Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SOHU

$46.54

$89.60

$90.48

$40.05

+93%

Chinese based Internet portal. Growing and profitable, with 32% net profit margins.

iShares S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors

No

IGW or

SOXX

$45.93

$59.58

$64.19

$14.03

+30%

Read "LED Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010 Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12.

Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC, or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.

Tesla

No

TSLA

$25.75

$23.92

$36.42

$14.98

-6%

Read "Tesla Trades on NASDAQ" from Vol. 7, issue 7.

Should you buy now? Very volatile stock. Also, production is just now starting on the new lower-priced sedan. It’s at a former Toyota factory, which places a lot of ducks in a row, however, ramping up for production is something that can be wrought with delays and other unexpected kinks. Combine that with competition for the Leaf and the Volt, and you have a more vulnerable company. The Leaf is lower-priced and has a lot less battery power and distance. The Volt is a hybrid, more like the Prius. However, the Volt just won the 2011 Car of the Year Award! Another concern is that Tesla CEO, product architect and Chairman Elon Musk is also the CEO and CTO of SpaceX and the chairman of SolarCity.

FY results were announced on Feb. 15, 2011. On a full year basis, 2010 revenues were $116.7 million as compared with revenues of $111.9 million reported in the prior year. Gross margin improved to 26% for the full year 2010, up from 9% for 2009. Net loss for the year was $154.3 million as compared to $55.7 million in 2009.

According to Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, the Model S "is well on its way toward becoming the vehicle of choice for 2012."

Panasonic purchased 1,418,573 shares of Tesla for $30 million (about $21/share). According to the Tesla press release, "Tesla and Panasonic are continuing their development of next generation battery cells designed specifically for electric vehicles."

Tidewater

No

TDW

$41.81

$61.22

$57.98

$37.99

+46%

Read "Clean Up" from Vol. 7, issue 6.

3Q on Feb. 4, Revenues of $271.8 million, compared to $286.5 million a year ago. Net earnings were $34.4 million, compared to $60 million a year ago. Included in net earnings for the September 30, 2010 quarter was a $4.35 million ($4.35 million after-tax, or $0.09 per common share) charge included in general and administrative expenses related to an agreement in principle with the United States Department of Justice to resolve the previously disclosed Foreign Corrupt Practices Act investigation.

Tidewater was the hero of the BP oil spill. Thanks to the rapid response of Capt. Alwin Landry and his crew of 12, the loss of life on April 20, 2010 was limited to 11. 115 workers were rescued, cared for and shipped 110 miles to dry land. Tidewater’s share price has taken a hit as a result of having losses from "seized assets" and unpaid accounts receivable in Venezuela and a fine/agreement involving a SEC investigation into U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Tidewater Inc. owns 384 vessels, the world’s largest fleet of vessels serving the global offshore energy industry.

Trina Solar Ltd.

No

TSL

$35.12

$28.47

$35.12

$14.85

-19%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Announces 4Q and FY 2010 earnings on February 22, 2011 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

4Q & FY earnings announced on Feb. 22, 2011: Total net revenues were $1.86 billion, an increase of 119.8% from 2009. Net income for the full year was $311.5 million, an increase of 223.7% from 2009

The SEC is concerned with the way that Trina is booking revenue that hasn’t yet been received. At this point, it appears that the conversation is two-way and no charges are pending.

Announced an agreement to supply solar modules to SunEdison, a subsidiary of MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. ("MEMC"). Under the terms of the agreement signed with MEMC, the Company is expected to supply SunEdison with approximately 35 MW of PV modules over the remainder of 2010

 --   Announced the signing of a Letter of Agreement with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ("MIT") to become a member of its Industrial Liaison Program, a program devoted to promoting university-industry collaboration, innovation and technology sharing

"We are very pleased with our outstanding performance in the fourth quarter, which saw record shipment volume and resulted in our exceeding previous guidance for both the fourth quarter and full year 2010," said Mr. Jifan Gao, Chairman and CEO of Trina Solar.

U.S. Gold

Colorado USA

RISK: VERY HIGH

Company of the Year 2009

No

UXG

$7.23

$8.57

$9.00

$2.02

+19%

Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada and Mexico which has begun the process of filing for production permits, with a goal of producing gold by 2014.

U.S. Gold announced on Valentine’s Day that they intend to offer 15 million shares, plus an over-allotment of 2.25 million additional shares. CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen will purchase $20 million. (The overall raise should be in the $124 million range.) The funds will be used "to complete feasibility study work and acquire long lead-time capital items for the El Gallo Project in Mexico, complete pre-feasibility and feasibility work at the Gold Bar Project in Nevada, continue ongoing aggressive exploration programs in Mexico and Nevada and for general corporate purposes," according to the company. At that time, we removed U.S. Gold from the Hot News List, meaning that we believed the share price would be under pressure. On February 18, 2011, U.S. Gold announced that the share price for the offering would be $6.50/share (and we sent out a note to subscribers).

What does this mean for you, the investor? As the company enters into pre-production mode, the share price becomes more vulnerable. U.S. Gold veteran Rob McEwen proved he could find gold and silver. Now he has to prove that he can build a mine and extract it from the ground. As with any construction project, that means lots of forms, inspections and rigmarole. Gold prices can continue to rise and I also have faith in the vision of veteran gold mining CEO Rob McEwen. However, the pre-production phase of any company is one where the share price can lag on investor concerns of timelines, delays, etc. It is your call whether or not you wish to keep a skin in the game during this period or not. Ultimately, U.S. Gold could become as great of a company (and as valuable) as Goldcorp did under McEwen’s leadership. The share price has fluctuated over the past year, however, going as low as $5.35/share in November of 2010, and it did take Mr. McEwen 18 years to make Goldcorp the great company that it is today.

U.S. Gold began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 2, 2010, and has a goal of qualifying for the S&P 500 by 2015. Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago Board of Options Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)

According to the press release issued on 2.7.11, "Baseline environmental studies have been initiated and permitting for full mine operations is scheduled to be completed concurrently with the feasibility study. The project is currently estimated to reach commercial production in early 2014." Average annual silver production is expected to be 5 million, with 50,245 ounces of gold annually.

U.S. Gold was the 2009 Company of the Year. The article was featured in the October 2009 ezine, Vol. 6, issue 10.

Veeco

No

VECO

$44.08

$50.24

$54.50

$29.54

+14%

Read "LED Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010 Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12.

Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC, or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. 1Q earnings should be released at the end of April 2010. (See below for important details.)

Reported 4Q and FY 2010 results on 2.7.11. $300 million in revenue for the 4Q, compared to $119.1 a year ago. Net income of $96.7 million, compared to $16 million last year.

John R. Peeler, Veeco’s Chief Executive Officer, commented, "The fourth quarter of 2010 was the best in our history, and we are extremely proud of our performance. These results were achieved through a combination of world-class products, a focus on high-growth market opportunities, operational excellence, our flexible manufacturing strategy, and a deep commitment to satisfying our global customers... Veeco will help enable the industry’s transition to LED lighting."

Quarter end backlog was $555 million.

1Q 2011 guidance: "Q1 2011 revenues will be lower than Q4 2010 because we are planning to ship 12-20 MOCVD reactors in the new MaxBright "cluster" format, and will not be recording any revenue on these systems in the first quarter. Timing of revenue is also being impacted by the longer order-to-revenue cycle times associated with the high percentage of business currently coming from China, primarily due to customer facility readiness. The average time to convert orders to revenue is currently several months longer in China than in other regions."

Peeler sold $2.6 million of stock on 2.11.11 ( a few days after earnings) at $52.82.

VMWare

No

VMW

$83.26

$80.18

$97.30

$25.27

-4%

Read "Health Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4. P/E is high, even for this great company! Love the company – at a better price...

Wells Fargo

No

WFC

$32.25

$31.59

$34.25

$23.02

Flat

I can’t tell you how many people I know who haven’t paid their mortgage in six months (or longer) but are still in their homes. Bank earnings statements right now are the biggest fairy tales ever told. Additionally, WFC credit card holders report getting charged 29.9% interest rates, while class action lawsuits against WFC continue to mount. However, the Feds keep giving the banks money and the SEC keeps allowing banks to carry their losses off the books. Which means that investors could still be suckered into owning bank stock.

See "Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings" in volume 5, issue 9, and "Wells Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12.

Wells Fargo Chairman takes early retirement:

Dick Kovacevich stepped down as chairman and a director at the end of 2009.

Westpac

No

WBK

$73.54

$124.15

$133.55

$85.72

+69%

Issued it’s full-year results on Nov. 3, 2010. Go to Westpac.com.au to access. Australian banks fared far better than the rest of the world banks. So did Canadian banks. P/E is good, but the price is high compared to the 52-week trend.

Key financial highlights (comparisons are with prior year):

• Cash earnings per share of 197.8 cents, up 21%
• Final dividend of 74 cents, bringing fully franked total dividend to 139 cents, up 20%
• Impairment charges of $1,456 million, down 56%
• Statutory net profit of $6,346 million, up 84%
• Cash earnings of $5,879 million, up 26%

Westpac’s Chief Executive Officer, Gail Kelly, said: "Westpac has nearly three billion shares on issue and over 560,000 shareholders. We are very conscious of the role we play in the secure and stable national banking system that underpinned Australia’s strong performance through and after the global financial crisis. We also know the important contribution our shares, and particularly our dividends, make to the retirement savings of so many Australians.

"It is in that context that I am very pleased with this year’s result, demonstrating further improvement in the Group’s businesses as we move into the third year of implementing our customer centric, multi-brand strategy."

Net profit of $2,875 million, up 32% from a year ago.

Cooling Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

ALERT: We are in the middle of the 2011 Spring Rally. Not the best time to initiate new short positions, outside of shorting the Bears and muni bonds. Many of the NASDAQ stocks on the list are here simply to keep you from buying them high.

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
Orocobre (OROCF) added on 4.1.11

DELETIONS:
Amazon (AMZN) on 3.11.11
American Express (AXP) on 3.11.11
Apple (AAPL) on 3.11.11
Baidu (BIDU) on 3.15.11
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) on 3.15.11
Capital One (COF) on 3.15.11
Ford (F) on 3.11.11
Intel (INTC) on 3.15.11
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) on 3.15.11
Netflix (NFLX) on 3.14.11
PIMCO Muni Bond Fund (MUNI) on 3.15.11
Sears (SHLD) on 3.1.11
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 3.1.11
Transocean (RIG) on 3.15.11
VMWare (VMW) on 3.15.11
Wells Fargo (WFC) on 3.15.11

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price

3.29.11

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

eBay

No

EBAY

$29.36

$31.08

$35.35

$19.06

+5%

Think etail will perform better than retail going forward, but concerned about investors expecting too much from these companies in an overbought marketplace – even if the Feds are pushing people out of treasuries.

Orocobre No OROCF $2.62 $2.62

$4.03

$1.29

--

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2. This is an Australian lithium company with a deal with Toyota to supply lithium for lithium ion batteries. Began trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) in June of 2010 and trades on the Australian Stock Exchange as well.

Orocobre issued almost 7 million new shares in the price range of $3.20 Canadian on Feb. 25, 2011 to fund ongoing design work, pilot plan operation and other activities in relation to the construction of the Salar de Olaroz.

Recent trouble: On March 7, 2011, Orocobre announced that the Argentinian government is slowing down the permit process for the proposed lithium potash project in NW Argentina. On March 4, 2011, the local government declared lithium to be a strategic mineral resource and introduced a secondary approvals process. According to the decree, additional approval will be required for both the Olaroz lithium-potash project for which the Company has already received approval of its development and production EIS, and the Cauchari lithium-potash project, for which an exploration EIS has been submitted. This new process does not affect the Company’s program at Salinas Grandes, which is predominantly located in Salta Province.

The company is based in Brisbane, Queensland, which had extensive flooding. The company’s projects are located in South America, so it’s possible that the floods won’t impact this company severely. Lithium production isn’t projected to begin until 2012 and with the new developments in Argentina, this could be further delayed.

Orocobre Limited is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange (ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) and is the leading lithium-potash developer in the lithium and potassium rich Puna region of Argentina. For further information, please visit www.orocobre.com.

Rochester Municipals Bond Fund

No

RMUNX

$14.86

$14.66

$16.91

$14.49

-1%

Read "Bond Beautification Project" from Vol. 7, issue 10 and "Bonds, Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster," from Vol. 7, issue 9.

Priceline

No

PCLN

$337.82

$437.99 (1.14.11)

 

$491.69

 

$491.69

$173.32

+45% &

+12%

Read the article "The Priceline Negotiator," from Vol. 7, issue 10. Great company. Not a short. Just don’t want people buying in high.

2.23.11: Released 4Q and FY earnings: 4Q revenue was $731 million; net profit was $175 million.

Taubman Centers REIT

No

TCO

$24.74

$55.47

(3.1.11)

$52.34

$55.90

$21.85

+208% &

-6%

Read the article, "Global Recession," from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.

Time Warner

No

TWX

$24.44

$31.78

(9.11.10)

$34.97

$50.70

$17.81

+43% &

+9%

Read the article, "Hulu Your Heroes," from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.

Toyota Motor Company No TM $77.05 (2.12.10) $79.71

$93.74

$67.56

+3%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2 and "One Very Hot IPO" from Vol. 7, issue 9.

The earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan could way heavily on Toyota, and some of the company factories are shut down for now. According to a statement issued by Toyota President Akio Toyoda on March 29, 2011, "Not only is the struck region one of our production bases, those directly hit and vastly affected include our dealers, suppliers and numerous other partners." Replacement parts production resumed on March 17. 233 parts out of 300,000 actively produced will be controlled for now, until production returns to normal.

Toyota continues to be the #1 automaker and a fave among greenies. The industry is vulnerable, however, and investors should be aware of the price and that 55 P/E is very high for a slow growth industry – especially given the unfortunate disaster that just occurred.

3Q earnings report on 2.8.11 was strong: Consolidated vehicle sales for the nine months amounted to 5.517 million units, an increase of 322 thousand units compared to the same period last fiscal year. Net income* increased from 97.2 billion yen to 382.7 billion yen. Net revenues for the nine-month period totaled 14.351 trillion yen, an increase of 5.0 percent compared to the same period last fiscal year.

PowerShares Treasury Bill Index Fund No PLW $30.02 $27.41

$30.02

$26.30

-8%
Read "Don’t Get Fooled Again," from Vol. 7, issue 8. When interest rates rise, bonds and bond funds fall in value. Time to find another "safe" place for your assets.

Wynn Resorts

No

WYNN

$95.42

$118.81

(1.14.11)

$125.88

$132.25

$71.00

+32% &

+6%

Check out the article, "(No) Viva Las Vegas" in Vol. 5, issue 10.

Wynn is a great marketer and capital raiser. However, Vegas is one of the worst places for real estate in the U.S. and the city has taken a huge hit as a convention center as well. Be very careful here.

Yahoo

No

YHOO

$15.00

$16.98

(12.15.10)

$16.75

$19.12

$13.52

+12% &

-2%

Read the "AOL" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Yahoo from December 2009.

Deleted in 2010-2011:
Deleted AMAT on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be double or more). 8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%), MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT (-20%) -- all for gains. Deleted MGM 9.13.10 for 61% gains. Deleted Tesla on 1.14.11 with 20% & 24% gains. 3.1.11: Deleted Shutterfly with -12% performance (cooling off gain) and Sears with mixed results (up & down). 3.11.11: Deleted PIMCO Muni Bond fund with flat performance. Deleted Amazon, American Express, Capital One, Ford, Kulicke & Soffa, Netflix, Taubman, VMWare with mixed results. Deleted Apple, Baidu, Berkshire Hathaway, Intel, Transocean & Wells Fargo with losses.

Deleted 2008-2009:
19 gainers and no losers.

Recently Deleted:
Amazon (AMZN) on 3.15.11
Apple (AAPL) on 3.15.11
American Express (AXP) on 3.2.11
Baidu (BIDU) on 3.15.11
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) on 3.15.11
Capital One (COF) on 3.15.11
Ford (F) on 3.2.11
Google (GOOG) on 3.2.11
Intel (INTC) on 3.15.11
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) on 3.15.11
PIMCO Muni Bond Fund (MUNI) on 3.15.11
Tesla (TSLA) on 1.14.11
Sears (SHLD) on 3.1.11
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 3.1.11
Transocean (RIG) on 3.15.11
VMWare (VMW) on 3.15.11
Wells Fargo (WFC) on 3.15.11

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Bookmark and Share

NataliePace.com Calendar:

Earth Day. Mother’s Day. The Milken Global Conference. Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Meeting. And more.

Ben Affleck presenting at the Vital Voices Global Leadership Awards.

The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.  Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.

To access links to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar section at NataliePace.com.

Global Leadership Awards, DC
Tuesday, April 12th, 2011
7:30PM through 10:00PM
The Vital Voices Global Leadership Awards honor and celebrate women’s leadership around the world. Democracy. Opportunity. Human rights. Economic empowerment.

Passover
April 18-26, 2011

Earth Day!
Friday, April 22nd, 2011
How are you celebrating Earth Day? Planting a tree or donating to Make It Right NOLA? Why not support green housing in New Orleans.

Easter
Sunday, April 24th, 2011

FOMC Meeting
Tuesday, April 26th, 2011
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting April 26-27, 2011.

GDP 1Q 2011 (Advance Est.)
Thursday, April 28th, 2011
8:30AM through 8:45AM ET
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) releases its advance estimate on GDP growth in the 1st Q of 2011.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
Saturday, April 30th, 2011
The theme this year is Planes, Trains and Automobiles. This gives NetJets, BNSF and BYD a chance to show off.

Milken Global Conference
May 1-4, 2011
Presidents, CEOs, VIPs, Nobel Prize winners, academics, policymakers. Participants don’t just debate the issues — they help move policy toward realistic solutions in energy, economics, health and more.

Mark Morris Dance Group, LA, CA
Thursday, May 5th, 2011
The Mark Morris Dance Group With Handel's pastoral ode as the musical landscape, and set to the poetry of John Milton, along with sets inspired by William Blake's later watercolors... at LA Opera.

Mother's Day
Sunday, May 8th, 2011
Celebrate and honor Moms!

Hang Out Music Fest, Orange County, AL
Friday, May 20th, 2011
Rock on the Alabama Gulf Coast with Foo Fighters, The Black Keys, the Flaming Lips, Cee Lo Green and more. What a better way to support this region after the Oil Spill!

Memorial Day
Monday, May 30th, 2011



VISION: To build a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars, radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news, information and education, presented in an entertaining format, across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com, P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350 or 1-866.476.7442 (toll-free telephone number).

NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service, and does not operate or act as one.