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Vol. 8 Issue 4, April 1st, 2011
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"Values of democracy and freedom of choice that are sweeping the
Middle East at this moment in time are the best opportunity for
the world - for the West and the East - to see stability and to
see security and to see friendship and to see tolerance emerging
rather than the images of violence and terrorism. Let us support
these people and let us stand for them."
Wadah
Khanfar, director general of the Al Jazeera network
Speaking at the Ted
Conference, on March 3, 2011 .
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Earth Hour.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
an Electric
Car Battery Makers Stock Report Card.
At
8:30 p.m. on March 26, 2011, the lights went off around the world
as part of Earth Hour. From Locando del Lago restaurant in Santa
Monica, California, to the Bird’s Nest Stadium in Beijing, to the
Sydney Opera House, to the Las Vegas Strip, businesses turned off
the lights for an hour to take a stand against climate change. Our
waiter apologized, but, honestly, it was fun to eat by candlelight.
I’d like to see this occur weekly, instead of annually.
However, let’s
face it. It will take more than turning off the lights for an hour
once a year to reduce carbon emissions and achieve China’s aggressive
clean energy targets. On March 28, 2011, China, as the world's largest
primary energy consumer, pledged to cut energy consumption per unit
of GDP by 16 percent while slashing carbon emissions by 17 percent
now through 2015. To accomplish this, China is investing in electric
cars and buses, LED lighting, solar and wind energy and water conservation
at a pace faster than any other country in the world.
Congress may
fight it, but there is no doubt that clean energy is also a cornerstone
of President Obama’s agenda. In his State of the Union speech on
January 25, 2011, President Obama assured Americans, "With
more research and incentives, we can break our dependence on oil...
and become the first country to have a million electric vehicles
on the road by 2015... And to help pay for it, I’m asking Congress
to eliminate the billions in taxpayer dollars we currently give
to oil companies. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but they’re
doing just fine on their own. So instead of subsidizing yesterday’s
energy, let’s invest in tomorrow’s."
The
United States and China are currently in a race to see which country
will be the first to put one million electric cars on the road.
On January 26, 2011, Vice President Joe Biden visited the ENER1
factory in Greenfield, Indiana to bring attention to the U.S. commitment
of putting one million EVs on the road by 2015. To ensure that U.S.
consumers are purchasing the electric cars, taxpayers can receive
a tax credit worth up to $7500 for purchasing an all-electric car.
The Chinese government has set an annual production goal of 500,000
hybrid or all-electric cars and buses by 2012.
There are many
electric car companies and lithium ion battery makers stepping up
to serve this emerging industry, but none has more momentum, government
backing or sales growth than ENER1. ENER1’s sales have tripled year
over year. The Department of Energy granted $118 million to the
company. And ENER1 just announced (on January 18, 2011) a new joint
venture with Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., to co-manufacture
Li-ion cells and battery packs for the rapidly growing Chinese market.
The new company will harness cutting-edge American technology and
advanced Chinese manufacturing capability to produce battery systems
for Wanxiang's several existing light- and heavy-duty automotive
and power grid customers for delivery this year.
ENER1 just secured
a $40 million deal to supply Russia's Federal Grid Company, with
$30 million of the revenue to come in the first half of 2011. There
are Memorandums of Understanding between the two companies to develop
additional projects.
To handle all
of this rapid expansion and fuel even more, ENER1 hired Christopher
L. Cowger as president, on March 28, 2011. Cowger was formerly a
corporate vice president and general manager for the semiconductor
giant Advanced Micro Devices. Cowger’s business pedigree includes
ten years at Dell, Inc., last serving as vice president and general
manager of its global consumer software and peripherals division,
time at General Motors and graduate degrees in electrical engineering
and business administration from MIT. "In Chris we have an exceptionally
talented and innovative business leader with the sales, marketing
and operations capability to help take our company to the next level,"
said Ener1 Chairman and CEO Charles Gassenheimer. "While rising
quickly through three of the most important manufacturers of our
times, he has demonstrated an ability to imbue an organization with
a razor-sharp customer focus perfectly suited for Ener1's commitment
to delivering the precise technology solution for every client in
each of our three business verticals." ENER1 manufactures compact,
lithium-ion powered battery solutions for the transportation, grid
energy storage and consumer markets.
This sounds
like a recipe for sure success, but there is a bug in the soup –
THINK Global. THINK Global has suspended battery orders from ENER1
in 2011, owes ENER1 $13.6 million and has a legacy of accounting
problems, including a bankruptcy in Norway, where the company is
based. If ENER1 takes equity instead of cash for the past due amount,
ENER1 could end up as a majority stakeholder of THINK. This would
require ENER1 to include THINK’s accounting with their own -- adding
a whole lot of ugly to ENER1’s bottom line.
So, what’s the
investor appetite for ENER1? Can Wall Street savvy ENER1 chairman
and CEO Charles Gassenheimer, an Ivy Leaguer with a degree in economics
and a background running hedge funds for Citigroup and Credit Suisse,
beef up the ENER1 bottom line and prevent the THINK bug from falling
in the pot? I’m betting that experience, momentum, a big political
appetite and commitment for electric cars, worldwide orders, presidential
applause and a Manhattan office will season the soup just right
for ENER1 this year – even given the THINK challenges.
We’ll certainly
know more when ENER1 files their first quarter earnings report in
the first week of May. However, with the ENER1 share price trading
near its 52-week low, I’m happy to place my bet now.
Full Disclosure:
I own shares of ENER1. This is a company that I have been featuring
in the Hot News on Cool Stocks list for more than a year now.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News,
CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com,
Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she
has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace,
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
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The
Economic Implications of the Japanese Earthquake Disaster and its
Aftermath.
by Dr.
Gary S. Becker.
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| Dr. Gary
S. Becker. |
Japan has certainly
been hard-hit during the past couple of decades. It has had almost
twenty years of confidence-destroying slow economic growth, a series
of humiliating confrontations with a rising and more aggressive
China, and finally the biggest earthquake ever recorded in Japan.
And this earthquake not only directly caused great damage, but it
also set off a tsunami with huge destructive power. As if this were
not enough, the combined earthquake-tsunami badly damaged two nuclear
energy plants located on the fault lines and by the sea -- damage
that led to the release of as yet undetermined amounts of radiation.
Still, I do not expect this disaster, despite its severity, to have
major effects on the Japanese economy. But it will have a big impact
on the nuclear power industry, and may help different countries
better prepare for very rare but destructive natural events.
The fundamental
loss to the Japanese people from this earthquake-tsunami-nuclear
disaster is the destruction and damage to people and property. Perhaps
in the end about 20,000 people would have been killed, and many
others would be severely injured, including the unfortunates who
were exposed to high levels of radiation. Twenty thousands deaths
are a terrible loss, but they are only a small subtraction from
the economy since they constitute about 0.016% of the Japanese population
of some 127 million people. Studies of what people in a country
like Japan would be willing to pay to avoid highly rare destructive
events like that of a magnitude 9.0 Richter scale earthquake combined
with a major tsunami suggest that these 20,000 deaths would be valued
by about $3 million per death (many of those who died are older
and have shorter remaining lives). The total cost of 20,000 deaths
would then be $60 billion, a large sum to be sure, but again very
small relative to Japan’s GDP of about $5 trillion.
The loss of
property is even more difficult to calculate at this point. Since
the earthquake hit a depressed region of Japan dependent on declining
industries like farming and fishing, it could not have caused a
major loss in buildings, equipment, and consumer durables relative
to Japan’s total stock of assets. The output produced by the worst
affected parts of this region are no more than about 4% of Japan’s
GDP, so that percent would be a gross upper bound to the economy’s
loss of buildings and equipment.
Even if the
leaks from the nuclear reactors are contained without major public
exposure to radiation, the combined loss of people and property
are sizable in an absolute sense, and of course are disastrous to
the people who lost their lives and property, or the lives of their
loved ones. Still, it is not a major economic loss to Japan as a
whole, and per se these losses should not result in more than a
small decline in the per capita standard of living of the Japanese
people.
Further economic
consequences always follow from major disasters. Production by some
businesses has been temporarily reduced since supply chains were
disrupted. Since the earthquake hit a depressed and declining region,
out migration of young men and women will accelerate, as will the
decline of fishing and farming in that region. Construction will
increase to replace some of the destroyed homes, businesses, and
infrastructure. Presumably also, substantial amounts will be spent
on repairing the damaged nuclear plants. These increased activities
might give the appearance of an economic boom in the region, but
it is a fake "boom" since they will mainly replace or
repair destroyed and damaged buildings and equipment.
I do not expect
it to take very long before the region replaces most of its damaged
property. A year after the powerful Kobe earthquake in 1995 that
destroyed or damaged about 100,000 homes, GDP of the Kobe region
of Japan surpassed its level prior to the earthquake.
The growing
worldwide boom for nuclear energy will surely end, however. Nuclear
power does not use fossil fuels and does not cause environmental
harm if the radioactive waste is disposed of properly. However,
these major advantages now have to be weighed against the different
events that can damage nuclear reactors, and release large amounts
of radiation into the atmosphere. At the minimum there will be a
justified reluctance to locate new reactors on earthquake fault
lines and close by seas that may have major tsunami action. Some
reactors already in these vulnerable locations may be closed or
relocated. Yet I hope that this does not also lead to a sustained
moratorium on construction of new nuclear energy plants, but rather
mainly induces even closer attention to safeguards against the release
of high radiation levels, whether due to natural disasters or terrorist
attacks.
It is difficult
for people, no matter what their intelligence, to factor into their
behavior the consequences of exposure to events that are both very
rare, such as a major earthquake, and cause major damage when they
do occur. It often takes decades that encompass most or all of a
typical lifetime before another such event occurs. In addition,
it is not always clear about how much protective action should be
taken against such events. The expected damage from such events,
which is the product of a small number (the probability of the event),
and a large number (the damage inflicted when the event occurs),
may itself be only moderate in size. Such moderate expected damages
would not justify very expensive protective measures.
Governments
have important roles to play in providing the latest information
in readily accessible form on the location and likelihood of major,
if rare, potential disasters. They also have the responsibility
to prevent the building of plants, such as nuclear reactors, in
places that would greatly harm people and property in the event
of catastrophic events. At the same time, governments need to allow
housing and other markets the flexibility so that individual choices
can price into different locations their vulnerability to various
rare but catastrophic events. An important World Bank study on disasters
(see the important book, Natural
Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, staff of the International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ World Bank, 2010) shows,
for example, that in flexible housing markets property values often
are lower in areas more vulnerable to earthquakes and other disasters.
About
Gary Becker:
Dr.
Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department
of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business,
The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in
1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George
W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.
To keep track
of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his website
and blog.
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Protect
Your Assets from Nuclear Crisis, War, Terrorism, and Other Disasters.
by Natalie
Pace.
Parents,
more than anyone, can feel extremely vulnerable during disasters,
especially if you are counting on investments to help you shore
up the financial hardship that always comes when you have kids.
The last thing you need when a crisis occurs is to feel like the
whole world is crashing in, including your emergency funds. Fortunately,
with a little forethought and preparedness, you can have confidence
that your assets are covered, even in uncertain times.
There are three
critical aspects to protecting your assets for any emergency --
preparing before disaster strikes, surviving the catastrophe and
recovering. Below are seven important ways to protect your nest
egg at all times and to be in the best position to profit (while
others are still scrambling to recover).
As one of the
few people who tripled my stock investments in 2001 -- without shorting
-- during a time when most investors lost more than half of their
nest egg, I feel a bit qualified to talk about protecting your assets
against war and terrorism. And as a single mom, I can tell you that
using these strategies helped me to focus my energy on my family
during that emotional time for our nation, rather than worrying
about the stock market -- an invaluable benefit.
Preparing
Yourself Before Disaster Strikes
- Keep
Enough Safe. This one tip is one of the most important.
If you don’t have enough safe, you’re betting your entire lot
on the whims of a volatile market and a disaster-prone world.
During the Great Recession, most people lost half (or more)
of their assets, and are still waiting to recover fully, while
those who had enough safe limited their losses to a fraction
of what their friends lost and have more assets today than before
the onset of the recession. In the worst-case scenario, that
could mean that you cannot retire and have to continue working,
or that you have to sell for a substantial loss to cover bills.
On the other hand, having enough safe ensures that you can buy
some of your favorite companies at the lowest prices available
in years, fueling your personal economic recovery. NASDAQ scored
40% gains in 2009! Latin America and Australia stocks doubled
in 2009-2010! Some people were profiting, while others were
merely recovering from losses. Always keep a percentage equal
to your age safe, i.e. not invested in stocks.
- Know
Your Insurance Plan, including the fine print. If you’re
going to spend all that money on insurance, be sure that you
know what is and is not covered. Hurricane Katrina survivors
were devastated to learn that their hurricane insurance didn’t
include the flooding that occurred when the levies failed. You
should know specific details on what is and is not covered before
tragedy strikes.
- Diversify.
Some areas of the market do better than others during tough
times. As just one example, during the March 2011 nuclear crisis
in Japan, the stock market became a rollercoaster, but most
clean energy stocks remained very buoyant. People become far
more interested in clean energy when there is a problem with
oil (high prices or an oil spill) or nuclear (like the potential
meltdown). Gold and oil prices were steady and strong as well.
By having your funds diversified into small, medium and large,
value and growth and four hot industries, you make sure all
of your eggs are not in the same basket when disaster comes
to town.
Performance
of the PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
March 11-28, 2011

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Getting
Through Tough Times
- Avoid
Hot Tips. Whether it is the anthrax vaccine or investing
in potassium iodide, there is always some hot tip raging on
the investor chat room bulletin boards during disasters. In
general, you’re better off avoiding all of the sure shots that
your favorite "friends" tout. If you do think something
sounds interesting, don’t buy in without doing a Stock Report
Card and asking the Four Questions that are outlined in You
Vs. Wall Street. Then, if you’re still convinced
that you’ve found a winning company, make sure you’re buying
it at a good price, from a reputable source.
- Consider
Buying Opportunities (carefully). During severe corrections,
like we saw on 911, your favorite companies can go on sale.
However, if you are paralyzed by fear and shock, you’ll miss
the buying opportunity. It pays to have a Stock Shopping List
planned for such occasions – a list of companies that you’ve
pre-screened and are sure you would love to own, at a lower
price. Those who bought on 9.14.01 (when the markets reopened
after 9.11) earned 20-30 percent gains in just four months—by
January 2002. The Dow and S&P 500 were up 20 percent, while
NASDAQ posted 30% gains. (This was key to my success in 2001.)

Likewise,
BP was up 30% in a few short months after the Gulf Oil Spill
of 2010 was capped.

After
the Disaster: Poised for Profits
- Annual
Rebalancing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat compared
to its value ten years ago. NASDAQ is still worth half of its
March 2010 high. Annual rebalancing is the only way investors
are making any money. Investors that buy and hold in today’s
slow growth economy, and expect an annual return of 10%, are
delusional. For superior performance, keep a percentage equal
to your age safe, avoid the bailouts, add in hot industries,
diversify by size and style and rebalance your nest egg annually.
- Windows
of Opportunity for Selling. For individual stocks, where
you have taken on higher risk, anticipating a higher return,
the temptation might be to set a stop loss. Or, if you bought
right before a disaster, the temptation might be to sell quickly
to avoid further losses. Both are losing propositions in a volatile
world. Instead, think of stop gains. Your window of opportunity
for selling for a profit might occur too quickly for you to
catch it, so consider having a limit sell order in place at
a reasonable profit. In this way, instead of selling low, you
are selling high. I was in this position on 9.14, and rather
than selling for a loss in September, I waited just three short
months and almost tripled my investment.
Get additional
information in chapter 16 of You
Vs. Wall Street, entitled "War, Terrorism and
Other Acts of God."
Natalie’s
Three Takeaway Tips
1. Disasters
in the stock market are opportunities to buy into companies that
you’ve loved for a while, but thought were out of your price range.
So keep that shopping list of favorite stocks handy.
2. There’s a big difference between buying into your favorite
companies—that you prescreen before disaster strikes—and being
seduced by the promise of hot tips, like anthrax vaccines.
3. The average return for the stock market over the last thirty
years was 11 percent. That time period includes many financial
disasters, including 9/11, the Asian financial crisis of 1997,
the U.S. debt crisis of 1992, Black Monday 1987 and the Great
Recession, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more
than 50%.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News,
CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com,
Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she
has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace,
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
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Debunking
Clean Energy Myths.
Debunking
Clean Energy Myths.
by Dan
Fink
We've all been
hearing these statements and reading those blogs since the 2008
election cycle: Clean energy is entirely unachievable! Insane! Stupid!
A pipe dream that will never work and can never pay off.
And yet, I've
successfully lived off the grid with my home powered entirely by
solar and wind since 1991. So, I obviously beg to differ. I do agree
there's been a lot of idiocy in the discussion over the last few
years, but most of it stems from narrowly defining the questions
in absolutes, rather than painting a broader picture of the multiple
and integrated systems that all need to change, slowly and deliberately,
for clean energy to become a reality in the US.
The last few
weeks have brought us not a mere one-two energy sucker punch, but
a full body slam worthy of the Ultimate Fighting Championships.
There have been multiple nuclear meltdowns in Japan, gasoline at
$4.00 a gallon thanks to North African political turmoil, news that
fracking for natural gas is an environmental nightmare and recent
reports showing that coal-fired power plants in the US kill up to
13,000 people yearly through mercury and other emissions (source:
American Lung Association). According to Charles D. Connor, president
and CEO of the American Lung Association, "It’s time that we
end the ‘toxic loophole’ that has allowed coal-burning power plants
to operate without any federal limits on emissions of [dangerous
pollutants]."
It's time to
re-examine some of these old "clean energy myths" with
a focus on broad solutions and a sober debate on the untallied (and
incalculable) costs of dirty energy, like coal, oil and nuclear.
Myth
#1: The sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow 24 hours a day.
The high plains of North Dakota could provide wind energy to
a huge swath of the US, while the deserts of Nevada could do the
same with solar. Why can't every state in the Union share in this
bounty? The answer is lack of transmission infrastructure, as you
can see from this link to the U.S.
Power Grid. The thinner the power lines are and the
longer the distance from source to load, the more energy is wasted.
As you can see, the lines coming from both North Dakota and Nevada
are inadequately thin, and branch out in only very limited directions.
Expanding power
transmission infrastructure capacity is a logical solution, which
boils down to stringing up more and thicker wires, and bumping everything
on them up to higher voltage. But nobody seems to think that they
should have to actually pay for such infrastructure improvements
on their monthly electric bills.
On the other
hand, string a new power line to a remote village in Africa to electrify
it for the first time, and you can be assured that every resident
knows that they are paying for the new infrastructure...and
they are paying the price gladly. Maybe it's time for an infrastructure
reality check here in the USA.
Newer utility-scale
solar thermal generation plants have some interesting base load
capacity built right in—solar heat is stored in molten salts, which
remain hot enough to continue generating steam after the sun sets.
Until recently, this psuedo-base-load capacity has been only a minor
focus in the solar thermal industry because true base load capacity
has been so cheaply and easily provided by coal and nuclear sources.
As the costs of greening and cleaning these base load technologies
rise, so will interest and investment in the thermal storage side
of solar thermal generation.
The current
Obama administration national energy policy is actually packed full
of oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear—with the focus not on abandoning
these energy sources (as some anti-clean-energy pundits shrilly
assume,) but instead on making them cleaner and greener. Will the
cost come out of your pocketbook? Well, yes. But the costs
of dirty energy are far more insidious and long-term, as we pay
the piper under the table for health care costs from air and water
pollution for decades into the future. We have two recent examples
of these costs in the Gulf Oil Spill and the Japanese Nuclear Disaster.
The Japanese Disaster is so extensive and expensive that the Japanese
government will likely have to bail out the utility company that
owns the nuclear power plant.
Electricity
prices in the US are relatively cheap compared to the rest of the
world because our base load fuels are cheap, with high energy density:
coal, nuclear and hydro. "Peaking load" fuels, to power
our lives while everyone else in the US is also using lots of power,
include natural gas, oil, geothermal, solar and wind.
Myth
#2: Renewable energy just costs too much, and will never be cost
effective.
This myth has never been further from the truth as today. Prices
continue to drop rapidly on solar and wind technology, as both demand
and production increase. Cost per kWh for solar is already competitive
with non-renewable sources in much of the world, where energy prices
are not held so artificially low with government subsidies on base
load fuels as they are in the US.
Federal tax
credits and state and local incentives for the installation of renewables
have long been the targets of scorn from anti-clean-energy activists,
and conservative pundits froth at the mouth with the mere mention
of Feed-in-Tariffs (FITs). But the only thing frightening about
FITs is their unfortunate name—they are not any sort of tariff or
tax at all, but rather an intricately structured rate plan straight
from the utility.
FITs start out
paying excellent rates per kWh for renewable energy to encourage
individual investment in distributed renewable generation, with
the rates paid stabilizing at "normal" levels after a
few years, allowing the initial investment to pay back quickly but
remain sustainable for the long term for everyone involved. FITs
have been successful worldwide, in such diverse locations as Australia,
Algeria, China, and Germany—the latter being quite an accomplishment,
since Germany's solar potential is very low, on par with only the
worst locations in the US.
Such government
"nudges" to tip new energy technology over the line into
profitability are nothing new. When oil was discovered in the US
in the 1860s, federal subsidies gave that infant, homespun industry
a big financial boost as a way to replace expensive, imported whale
oil lighting, lubrication and other applications across the US.
Nuclear energy received similar government boosts in the 1950s and
1960s, while cheap base-load fuels like coal continue to receive
aid to this day.
Myth
#3: You can’t charge your electric car with solar or wind energy.
It's true that operating an electric car in a region that generates
most of its electricity from coal means you are really driving a
coal-powered car. However, an EV charged from a solar-powered home
is a green ride.
Renewable portfolio
standards for utilities are increasing across the US. Solar and
wind generation capacity is increasing. And electric car penetration
into the market is also increasing. Up-front costs are creating
a bit of a struggle for the individual consumer, but as these market
forces increase and combine together, it all has every chance to
end up as a win-win situation.
It's currently
possible to power your electric car with your own solar array. In
areas with excellent solar resources and robust local incentives,
some homeowners are installing renewables by the total immersion
method—enough solar capacity on the roof to completely offset their
annual home usage, and extra capacity up there to charge up that
new electric car in the garage. This isn't a valid plan yet where
solar resources are weak (Seattle, Upstate New York), but again
increasing renewable portfolio standards will eventually provide
almost the same effect at the end of the day—electric cars powered
(at least mostly) by renewables, with the non-renewable part of
the equation significantly cleaned up.
Myth
#4: Electric cars will leave you stranded.
If you are contemplating a cross-country drive from New York
to LA in your new Tesla Roadster, your planning will need to be
meticulous or you will indeed be left stranded. But in the urban
areas where EVs are becoming most popular, charging stations are
not really an issue, due to both short driving distances and expansion
of pay-to-charge services. You can even download an iPhone application
to direct you to the nearest charging station.
Google Maps
tallies charging stations, too. Many employers are very receptive
to providing EV charging capability to their employees while at
the office, even if the program starts with a simple extension cord.
A full 200-mile charge from flat empty in a Tesla Roadster costs
under $6.
By the way,
that cross-country EV tour has been successfully accomplished
-- many times. In rural areas, EV drivers report that some straight
talk at motels and restaurants, a $5 bill and maybe a test drive
can open the doors to a variety of electric outlets for charging
during lunch or an overnight stay. In many urban areas, though,
such measures are no longer even a matter of discussion. You can
even charge up at the mall.
Is
clean energy really a myth?
No. The simultaneous growth of demand for renewable energy generation,
the corresponding drop in production costs, and the stark realization
of disastrous effects on the environment from current energy technologies
are all working together to launch renewable energy sources to the
forefront worldwide.
Let's be realistic—there
will be no sudden abandonment of oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear
energy sources in the US in favor of solar and wind, only a gradual
greening of the most egregious base load sources as renewables are
phased in by stages. To imply otherwise is, well, simply absurd.
AUTHOR
BIO:
Dan Fink has lived off the grid, high in the Northern Colorado mountains,
since 1991, 11 miles from the nearest power pole or phone line.
He has a BA in Technical Journalism from Colorado State University,
and spent 10 years in the field as a renewable energy system consultant,
designer and installer. He has been a renewable energy technical
author and educator since 2000, and is the Executive Director of
Buckville Energy Consulting, the Editor-in-Chief of Buckville Publications
LLC and the co-author of the book Homebrew
Wind Power. Dan teaches renewable energy classes
throughout the USA.
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Get Up to $7,500 for
Buying an EV.
by Natalie
Pace.
Don’t
File Before Checking Out These 7 Important Tax Tips.
Don’t
e-file your return before reviewing the following tax tips. You
might be overlooking thousands of dollars in tax credits, retirement
account contributions and more. The Obama Administration has given
Americans big tax incentives for going green, so if you made any
energy efficient improvements, you could qualify. And if you didn’t
in 2010, but have been wanting to, most green incentives are still
available in 2011.
- IRA
Contributions: You can still contribute to your
IRA and receive credit for 2010, up until April 15, 2011.
Learn
more about contributing to your IRA NOW on the IRA contribution
page at IRS.gov. If you use a software program, like Turbo Tax,
they will automatically encourage you to make your IRA contribution
before completing your tax form. Your accountant is likely doing
the same, and it’s an excellent idea. (Simply search for IRA on
the IRS.gov
page.) Note that Roth IRA contributions are not tax deductible.
- Charitable
Contributions. Your charitable contribution is tax deductible,
if you file the right form. While contributions to the Japanese
earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis may have to be declared
on the 2011 tax return, if you donated to Haiti last year, that
can and should be included in the 2010 tax return. For more information,
read my article, "Haiti,"
from the February 2010 ezine, vol. 7, issue 2.
- Health
Savings Accounts. Here’s another way to increase your
assets and beautify your bottom line, while giving less to Uncle
Sam AND the insurance company. Health Savings Accounts work best
for healthy people who have the ability to purchase catastrophic
health insurance, while contributing to a tax-deductible retirement
plan that can be invested for gains. Catastrophic insurance could
save you hundreds of dollars in insurance premiums per month,
some of which can be deposited into your HSA for investments and
gains that will eventually become part of your retirement strategy.
If you don’t need to dip into this account, it rolls over year
after year until you retire. And in the meantime, you also get
a write-off for contributing and are not taxed on gains you might
make through investing the money. You must be a "qualified
individual," but opening a HSA through a discount brokerage,
like TD AMERITRADE or Schwab, is easy. To learn more, visit IRS.Gov
and enter Health
Savings Accounts in the search box.
- Free
Federal Online Filing is the easiest way to do your taxes.
For a list of qualified software companies, click on the FREE
File icon on the home page at IRS.Gov.
Many of these programs ask as many questions as most accountants
and aim to include the deductions you qualify for. And it’s FREE
for low-income easy-filers.
- Education.
You may be able to deduct education costs for yourself and/or
a student in your immediate family. You may also be able to take
an early distribution from an IRA without paying the early distribution
penalty and additional taxes, if the withdrawal was made to cover
a qualified education expense. And if the education is work-related,
you may qualify for a business deduction. Most of the benefits
apply to higher education. For additional information, read publication
970 at IRS.gov.
- Electric
Vehicles and Energy Efficiency. If you purchased an EV,
made energy efficient improvements to your home (like insulation
or window improvements) or installed solar or wind energy products,
you could qualify for a quite large tax credit. EV credits go
up to $7,500 and wind/solar power products can be as high as 30%
of the purchase price. For more information, go to the IRS
Tax Tip # 2011-49, which was issued on March 11, 2011.
If you want to buy an EV, but haven’t yet, this tax credit is
good now through 2014, or whenever the auto manufacturer sells
200,000 vehicles, while the Residential Energy Efficient
Property Credit is good through 2016.
At $4.40/gallon,
it costs $66 to gas up, whereas reecharging an electric
car costs
about $5. The Tesla Roadster can go 244 miles on a charge (according
to the EPA). So, $5 is equal to a $66 tank of gas. If you gas
up once a week, you're spending $3500 annually, which could
be replaced with a bill of $260. Combine that with up to $7500
tax credit for purchasing an EV and you get your dough back
quite fast.
- FAQs.
Wonder what tax laws have changed this year? What age your kids
must be before you can no longer declare them? If you can claim
a college student as a dependent? Check out the Frequently
Asked Questions page of IRS.Gov. Again, remember that
the online tax services update their software annually to reflect
changes in the law, so if you are using one, it’s much more time
efficient than trying to read all of the fine print on your own.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News,
CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com,
Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she
has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace,
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
.
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Investor
IQ Test. Should You Sell in May and Go Away?
by Natalie
Pace.
12
Questions. Includes New Data on Monthly and Election Year Market
Performance.
Test
your knowledge of economics, stocks, returns and more. Learn more
and increase your return on investment!
- What are
the top 10 economies in the world?
- Which
months performed the best on Wall Street for the last five years?
- What was
the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last
five years?
- Which
months were the top performers on Wall Street for the last twenty
years?
- What was
the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last
twenty years?
- Which
30 companies are included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
- Which
year is the top performer in the election year cycle?
- Which
year was worse for stocks -- 2007, 2008 or 2009?
- Can you
still contribute to your IRA for the 2010 tax year?
- Which
year did China’s economy surpass Japan?
- Which
country entered the top 10 economies in the world in 2010?
- Which
two countries fell out of the top 10 economies in the world in
2010?
Get
the answers in the article, "Investor
IQ Test. 20 Answers," in this ezine (vol. 8, iss. 4).
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News,
CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com,
Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she
has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace,
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
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Pre-IPO
Offerings—These Scammers Are Not Your Friends.
Investor
Alert by FINRA.org.
Investor
demand for shares of the private stock of high-profile social media
companies—such as Facebook, Groupon, Twitter and Zynga—has been
surging in recent months. Social media has also become the latest
scam. In this case, fraudsters dangle the promise of wealth from
the sale of "pre-IPO" shares.
It’s
no secret that when a promising company emerges or an industry sector
becomes "hot," investors typically flock to get a piece
of the action. But what happens when the company is privately
held and investors can’t readily buy shares because the company
has not conducted an initial public offering of its stock?
Investor demand for shares of the private stock of high-profile
social media companies—such as Facebook, Groupon, Twitter and Zynga—has
been surging in recent months. These companies have millions
of subscribers and have dramatically changed the way people interact.
But social media has also become the latest hook on which con artists
can hang a scam. In this case, fraudsters dangle the promise
of wealth from the sale of "pre-IPO" shares.
For
instance, in late December 2010, shortly after the Securities
and Exchange Commission settled a civil action, federal
prosecutors brought criminal
charges against a self-employed securities trader who
allegedly bilked more than 50 U.S. and foreign investors out of
more than $9.6 million in a series of pre-IPO scams spanning an
eight-year period. We are also aware of other potentially
fraudulent schemes that have solicited potential victims by purporting
to sell shares of Facebook.
FINRA
is issuing this alert to warn investors about pre-IPO scams purporting
to offer access to shares of Facebook and other popular, well known
private companies.
Pre-IPO
Speculation Always Risky, Can Be Illegal
In general, offerings of securities must either be registered
with the SEC or meet an exemption under the federal securities laws—otherwise
the offering is not legal. "Pre-IPO" speculation involves buying
unregistered shares in a private company before the initial public
offering of securities—and it can range from risky deals to outright
frauds.
On
the legitimate end of the spectrum, a company can sell its unregistered
shares in private transactions (often called "private placements"),
and such sales to investors are an essential source of capital for
American business, particularly small firms. But these Investments
can be fraught with risk—including the fact that you can’t be certain
the company being touted will actually complete an IPO. This means
you cannot be sure whether you will ever be able to sell the shares
you purchased. Separately, the fair market value of your shares
may be based solely on speculation. And privately purchased
shares typically come with restrictions, such as lock-up periods
that prevent you from selling your shares for up to a year even
if the company goes public in the interim. In addition, for
a private placement to be legal under the federal securities laws,
the company and its promoters generally cannot advertise the offering
or make solicitations to the general public. And these deals
are typically open only to "accredited
investors," which includes individuals who have
net worth of more than $1 million (excluding the value of their
primary residence) or income of more than $200,000 in the current
year and each of the preceding two years ($300,000 for couples).
On
the other end of the spectrum, the unregistered shares offered to
you could be part of a fraud. The company might not exist—or,
if it does, the promoter might be offering shares he doesn’t have
or that he acquired in a questionable transaction. The fraud
could also involve misrepresentations about the company and its
prospects, including the likelihood, timing and pricing of any potential
IPO. In the criminal case mentioned above, the defendant falsely
claimed that he had worked at Goldman Sachs, was a preferred client
of the firm and had access to discounted, pre-IPO shares of such
well-known companies as AOL, Google, Facebook and Rosetta Stone.
The
bottom line is that many pre-IPO scams involve unlicensed individuals
selling unregistered securities—that’s why it’s critical to check
out both the promoter and the investment. And pre-IPO offerings
that target the general public—especially those that are publicized
through "spam" emails—often violate the federal securities laws.
Protect
Yourself
Fraudsters would have investors believe that virtually anyone
can get in on pre-IPO deals of small, little-known start-ups as
well as those of large, popular companies. One sure-fire way
to avoid being taken in by an unsolicited offer is to ignore it—regardless
of how you heard about it. Someone claiming to have shares of Facebook
or some other social networking company may very well be a paid
promoter or, more likely, a con artist trying to take your hard-earned
money.
Never
rely solely on information contained in an unsolicited fax, email,
text message, tweet or other format for social network communications—or
in a blog post or online thread. To steer clear of potential scams,
follow these tips.
- Consider
the source. If you received an unsolicited offer to invest
in a pre-IPO opportunity—by any means—don’t take the bait. It's
easy for promoters to make unsubstantiated claims about owning
stock or being able to offer you shares of stock they have somehow
been able to accumulate. The stories a con artist might
spin are myriad but share one trait—they are all built on lies
and deception.
- Always
ask: "Why me?" An unsolicited offer to buy pre-IPO shares
raises the obvious question: Why would a total stranger tell
you about a really great investment opportunity? The likely
answer is that there is no such opportunity.
- Be alert
to persuasion. Virtually all pre-IPO scams dangle the prospect
of exclusive access to eye-popping returns (an example of the
"phantom riches" tactic) at a discount (the "reciprocity"
tactic) if you act quickly ("scarcity"). Many
scams also exploit "source credibility," trying to
build your trust by claiming falsely to be with a reputable
firm. And others, such as those purporting to involve well-known
companies, use "social consensus" to suggest that
everyone wants in so the deal must be good. To learn more
about persuasion, read FINRA’s Fighting
Fraud 101.
- Verify
whether the person touting the stock or investment is licensed.
A legitimate investment salesperson must be properly licensed,
and his or her firm must be registered with the Financial Industry
Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the SEC or a state securities
regulator—depending on the type of business the firm conducts.
To check the background of a broker, use FINRA
BrokerCheck. For an investment adviser, use the
SEC's Investment
Advisor Public Disclosure website. Also, be sure
to call your state securities regulator. You can find that number
in the government section of your local phone book or by contacting
the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA).
- Determine
if you’re being conned by a convicted criminal. Check the
Federal
Bureau of Prisons Inmate Locator to determine if a solicitation
is coming from someone who has served time in a federal prison.
A surprising number of investors are conned each year by career
criminals plying the only thing they know how to do. Many
states also have similar prisoner locator systems.
- Be a
search engine sleuth. Use search engines to learn
as much as you can about a solicitation and those behind it.
For instance, if the individual promoting the investment has
a history of fraud or criminal activity, you might find news
reports and court documents with details. And, if an investment
firm is mentioned, research its address using Internet search
engines (even after you to look up the firm in BrokerCheck).
It’s possible the fraudsters are using a false or non-existent
address or that the address—even a posh-sounding one—leads to
a mail stop or a cubbyhole that might be only a desk and a phone.
It’s even possible that the fraudster has hijacked the name
of a legitimate firm—but the address or phone number provided
don’t match with the entity in BrokerCheck.
- Never
send money to an individual or firm that you are hearing from
based on an unsolicited communication. Even if you
have met or spoken directly with someone selling an investment,
never write a check out to the individual. Your money is apt
to end up in a personal bank account, never to be seen by the
investor.
- Get
an unbiased second opinion. The only way to verify
whether a particular pre-IPO opportunity is legitimate is to
conduct in-depth due diligence. To fully understand the
terms of the deal and any restrictions that apply, you will
likely need to enlist the aid of professionals who are in no
way connected to the deal, including an attorney who is skilled
in both securities law and contract law or a licensed investment
professional.
If
a Problem Occurs
If you believe you have been defrauded—or treated unfairly by a
securities professional or firm—please send us a written complaint.
And if you suspect that someone you know has been taken in by a
scam, be sure to give us that tip. Here's how:
Online:
File
a Complaint (for you)
Send
a Tip (for others)
Mail
or Fax:
FINRA Complaints and Tips
9509 Key West Avenue
Rockville, MD 20850
Fax: (866) 397-3290
Additional
Resources
To
receive the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor
information sign up for Investor
News.
About
FINRA:
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the
largest independent regulator for all securities firms doing business
in the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800
brokerage firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately
643,000 registered securities representatives.
FINRA
believes investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet,
the media and public forums, we help investors build their financial
knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand
the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.
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What's
the Credit Risk in Muni Bonds?
by Rob
Williams.
Rob
Williams is the Director of Income Planning, at the Schwab
Center for Financial Research
Updated January
25, 2011
Key
points
- While municipal
bonds aren't risk-free, we don't think fears of a collapse are warranted
either.We'll
look at the leading arguments against muni bonds today, and provide
our thoughts to help inform your investment approach.
- There are
many type of muni bonds—we'll explain the differences so you can
try to stay away from those with a higher chance of getting in trouble.
Much media
attention (in print and online) has recently been given to an alleged
collapse of municipal bonds. This is even more today than it was
when we published the original version of this article in June 2010.
Unfortunately, much of the analysis seems to view the entire muni-bond
marketplace as a single vast—and troubled—sector.
We don't believe
that's true, or that an outbreak of municipal bond defaults is likely.
To explain why, let's look at four of the primary arguments against
munis, and why we think they're overblown.
1. Munis are no longer a safe haven—defaults are rising, with
more to come. It is true that defaults in some areas of the
muni-bond universe are rising. But they're rising from effectively
zero—at least for the safest-sector bonds—and have been largely
confined to the riskiest, most-speculative muni sectors.
There are more than 60,000 individual state and local governments,
districts, authorities and other issuers active in municipal bond
markets today, with nearly $3 trillion in debt outstanding, according
to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board. Through December 1,
there was $4.25 billion of muni debt in default in 2010, or about
0.15% of the total market, according to Bank of America Merrill
Lynch.
Municipalities
with major problems have dominated headlines, including Jefferson
County, Alabama, the cities of Vallejo, California and Harrisburg,
Pennsylvania and others. Not to mention entire states like California,
Illinois, New Jersey and New York, which do face major challenges,
but are still far from any real chance of default on long-term bonds,
in our view.
Land-secured assessment and other special-purpose districts are
special tax jurisdictions that are usually created to overlap new
real estate developments to pay for roads and other infrastructure.
In many of the troubled issues, homes were never built, or those
that were were hit hard by foreclosures. Most never carried a bond
rating, and those that did usually carried very low, speculative-grade
ratings. Very few non-institutional or non-accredited investors
hold bonds of this kind.
The other riskiest sector has been healthcare—small public hospitals,
healthcare districts, nursing homes and other public-health sectors
faced with considerable business risk. Roughly half of the municipal
market consists of government "general obligation" (GO) or other
tax-secured bonds, while most of the rest are revenue bonds, secured
by specific projects or government enterprises. Healthcare
and public-health related bonds fall into the latter camp, which
is more varied, and business-driven, than general government bonds.
Bottom line:
If you do happen to hold or are considering the types of munis described
in the sidebar, reconsider—the risks may be too high. Otherwise,
a well-diversified portfolio focused on higher-quality state and
local as well as essential-service revenue bonds should provide
you with ample credit protections. That said, you always want to
monitor any bonds that you do hold using bond-rating alerts as a
line of first defense.
2. Lack of political will to make tough choices while deep
budget holes get deeper... While state and city budget troubles
may be the worst in memory across the United Sates, budgetary stress
is one thing—actual default is another. From a bond-holder's perspective,
we're encouraged by the magnitude of budget cuts made during the
past several years as government revenues have plummeted. This is
in contrast to countries like Greece that haven't been doing the
painful, but necessary, cutting.
California, for example, cut huge chunks out of its 2009 and 2010
budget and the new governor has proposed another $19 billion in
cuts to close the gap for 2011. The state of New York (and
others) have grappled with, and enacted, painful cuts of similar
magnitude.
Most analysts agree that bridging these deficits will continue to
require belt-tightening. Unlike the US government, local governments
and states are restricted from running budget deficits or funding
those deficits with long-term debt.
In addition to budget deficits, states and municipalities have significant
future non-bonded liabilities (primarily pensions and other employment-related
entitlements), which may require deep cuts or renegotiation with
unions given the rising long-term costs. Many governments are tackling
this problem proactively, with New Jersey being a good, high-profile
example. Governor Chris Christie was featured prominently in a December
60 Minutes segment highlighting the need to rationalize long-term
pension costs.
Current budget
troubles aren't a debt problem, however—at least not in the traditional
sense. The current average percentage of state and local budgets
dedicated to paying on bonds or debt is between 3% and 5% of their
annual budgets. Debt service, i.e. payment on bonds, is a relatively
small expenditure for most state and local governments, yet one
of the most important. Nonetheless, unfunded pension liabilities
are a major challenge, and belt-tightening is required. But there
is time—political will permitting—and flexibility to adjust. The
political part is the big if, and will be handled very differently
depending on political climate and jurisdiction.
The amount of media attention to this issue is actually encouraging,
we believe. The media has become the new bond vigilante, focusing
on problems to help force tough decisions when bond markets alone
haven't. If particular local governments don't respond, look elsewhere
for muni bonds—risky pension and public entitlements are a major
public policy challenge.
Bottom line:
Stick to issuers with local economies that are rebounding and management
that shows signs of making cuts when necessary. If you don't want
to make those choices, or don't have the information to do so effectively,
diversify by issuer or choose professional credit management via
municipal bond mutual funds.
3. This time it's "different"
The past doesn't always tell us the future, but it often rhymes.
Sounds trite, but remembering it may help you avoid potholes more
skillfully than if you just ignore historical trends.
The past 40 years have been a relatively benign time for the US
economy, as well as for state and local government bond issuers.
From 1970 to the end of 2009, only 54 out of tens of thousands of
munis bonds rated by Moody's defaulted. Of those 54, only three
were GO bonds, while 74% were related to healthcare or housing finance
projects, not GO or essential-enterprise revenue debt.1
Going back further, during the Depression, 15% of the annual
average of muni debt outstanding between 1929 and 1937 defaulted.
Repayment, however, was rapid and almost always in full.2 Importantly,
special assessment district bonds (discussed above) and business-sensitive
revenue bonds (healthcare, irrigation districts, and other less
essential services) were most impacted. Towns, states and school
districts had the lowest proportionate impact.
Bottom line: Historical statistics during the past 40 years
are encouraging, but only count for so much if you believe these
are indeed different times. Nonetheless, they do provide further
evidence that muni sectors have enjoyed significant credit strengths
and flexibility in varied economic climates.
4. We used to have bond insurance—now there's no backstop
As recently as two years ago, more than 50% municipal bonds were
protected by insurance from one of a handful of major bond insurance
companies. Today, there's only one active insurer (Assured Guaranty),
and less than 10% of new munis issue issued in 2009 came with bond
insurance, according to The Bond Buyer.
We've entered the era of government "bailouts" as well. If governments
fail, who's left to bail them out? Even if the federal or state
governments could step in to help in some cases, they couldn't possibly
help everyone—and we don't think they should. Most state and local
governments will need to solve their own problems.
Bottom line: Don't count on insurance or federal protection
when considering any individual bond investment. Without backstops,
credit analysis matters more. If you feel comfortable with the details
of individual issuers, stick to high credit quality, or outsource
the work to professionals via mutual funds.
In summary—what this means to you
There are good reasons for some investors to consider muni bonds,
despite media noise to the contrary. But there are still risks—to
give yourself the best chance for success, keep these principles
in mind:
- Stick
with quality. Criticism aside, credit ratings on municipal
bonds from the three major ratings agencies (Fitch, Moody's and
Standard & Poor's) have generally been very effective.
Use them as a starting point for your own analysis.
- Know what
you're buying. It may seem obvious, but it's less easy to
achieve in practice. The more than 60,000 different issuers in
the muni market can issue bonds under a variety of names, secured
by a variety of different revenues. Know the differences. The
best way is to read the bond's "official statement" (i.e. prospectus)
on Emma.MSRB.org,
or available from a Schwab fixed income specialist.
- Outsource
credit selection for lower-quality muni bonds. Most investors
simply don’t have the tools to evaluate lower-quality, higher-risk
muni bonds, and we generally don’t believe these are suitable
for most muni investors. If you do choose to explore these types
of munis, we suggest choosing professional management, in the
form of mutual funds or managed accounts, to add higher-risk individual
bond holdings to your muni portfolio.
- Don't
overreact to news. We're living through challenging times,
but there's no need to overreact to negative news that may have
no impact on bonds you actually own. If you're truly concerned
about widespread near-term defaults on munis, then reconsider
your investment philosophy and risk
profile. But if you do choose to avoid munis, you'll be
giving up the positives as well, including tax advantages, relative
stability and the income stream.
- Monitor
your holdings. If you do hold individual muni bonds, you can
do the following:
- Clients
can sign up for bond-rating alerts
providing notification when a bond's rating changes. If a bond
has been recently downgraded, there's probably a good reason
why.
- For the
latest information on individual bonds, start with the Municipal
Securities Rulemaking Board, the expanding repository
of muni bond disclosure. If there's a material negative event
reported recently, be wary.
- Finally,
you can call a Schwab Fixed Income Specialist at 800-626-4600
for a close look at your entire muni portfolio by rating, maturity,
recent events and any other information that might help maintain
a healthy portfolio.
1. Moody's,
"U.S. Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2009," February
2010.
2. George Hempel and the National Bureau of Economic Research, The
Postwar Quality of State and Local Debt, published in 1971.
Important
Disclosures
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal
during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments
are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality,
market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate
events, tax ramifications and other factors.
The information provided here is for general informational purposes
only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation
or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned
here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review
an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before
making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice
in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein
from third party providers is obtained from what are considered
reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability
cannot be guaranteed.
Diversification strategies do not assure a profit and do not protect
against losses in declining markets.
The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles
Schwab & Company, Inc.
(0111-0652)
Watch a video,
called Perspectives on Today’s Muni
Market with Rob Williams, by clicking on the link.
|
|
How
Do I Know When to Sell and What Price is Right?
Investors
Ask Natalie.
Dear
Natalie:
What do you
mean when you say, "Take your profits early and often?"
I just keep seeing that verbiage in the Hot News on Cool
Stocks article and wondered how to follow the advice.
Signed,
I Love Stocks
Dear Lover:
If you look
at the chart below of returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
over the last ten years, you can easily see that if you are buying
and holding your stocks and funds, you haven’t made any money. There
have been some wild swings up and down, but essentially, the index
is barely above where it started a decade ago.

Volatility,
but overall flat performance, can be true of individual stocks as
well. Take, for instance, the case of one very popular large cap
stock, Google – a company worth $184 billion. As you can see from
the chart below, Google is trading at the same price today as it
was a year ago.

However, if
you purchased at the 52-week low of $433.63 and sold at the high
of $643, then you could have earned up to 48% gains. In other words,
there is plenty of volatility throughout the year, offering gains
to the opportunistic buyer and profit-taking seller.
The same is
true for smaller stocks, like the very popular LED nanotech companies.
Veeco Instruments is trading near the same price it was a year ago.
However, if you purchased at the low of $29 and sold at the high
of $54.50, your gains were 84%.

ENER1 has zigzagged
all over the map over the last 52-weeks, creating multiple opportunities
to make money.

I’m mentioning
stocks here that I’ve already pre-screened, using the Stock Report
Card and asking the Four Questions, by the way. Once I know the
company’s business, understand why it is superior to the competition
and I am sure that I have picked the leader in the industry, then
it is simply a matter of buying low and selling high.
Now, with regard
to your nest egg, trying to time the exact highs and lows of your
fund purchases and sales can be very, very time consuming. Also,
you’ll have the tendency to second guess yourself all the time –
kicking yourself for not buying on the exact low or not selling
at the exact high. That is why, although I say "take your profits
early and often" in the Hot Stocks article, I encourage annual
rebalancing in your nest egg, rather than active trading.
Here’s how annual
rebalancing can achieve the same goal of "buying low and selling
high."
Let’s say you
are 50 years old, with $500,000 in your IRA, and you have your nest
egg diversified into the following pie chart in January of 2008.
(January 2008 was a time when I recommended overweighting 20% safe,
to avoid losses in the Great Recession).
.jpg)
By January of
2009, those who were not properly diversified would have lost half
of their holdings, with a nest egg value of $250,000. (Sound familiar?
I’m sure you know people who experienced this.) The Dow dropped
to a low of 6547 by March of 2009.
Your diversified
nest egg, however, would still be worth $402,325. Your bonds (the
safe portion of your IRA) and your gold fund would have performed
well, while only 27% of your nest egg was at risk for losses up
to 39%. Watch the testimonial of Nilo Bolden on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
for a firsthand testimonial of this.
The formula
of annual rebalancing means that in January of 2009, it is time
to realign your pie chart. You could still keep an additional 20%
safe, if you wish, but you’d need to beef up your other slices of
the pie in order to have 30% in stocks, since your stock holdings
had lost value. You might also want to change the four hot industries
a bit. I substituted Technology for Biotechnology when ObamaCare
became the hot topic. Using this formula, there would be $281,627
safe, with $120,697.50 (30%) sliced into 10 even slices of the pie
– six funds diversified by size and style and four hot industries.
By comparison,
the 50-year-old who only had $250,000 of the original $500,000 would
have to "sell low" if they wanted to diversify at this
time. In order to get some of their money safe, which is very important
at all times, they would have to sell some stocks at the worst possible
time. I’m sure you know many people who were in this unfortunate
position. However, because your nest egg was properly balanced and
protected to begin with, you had too much safe at the beginning
of January 2009, and were prepared to buy in at a time when stocks
were very low priced.
And that buy-in
at the low would have paid off fantastically the following year
when you went to rebalance again in January of 2010. The S&P500
gained 23.45% in 2009. NASDAQ was up 40%. Australian stocks soared
60%, as did technology funds. Even clean energy earned gains of
26%, while gold was one of the lowest performers, at 24%, that year.
By the beginning of 2010, your nest egg had almost fully recovered
from the "Great Recession" with a value of $466,784. With
13% gains in the S&P500 in 2010, the portfolio heads into 2011
back in the black, with at least $510,821 in assets – more when
you factor in the hot industries.
Meanwhile, the
person who had everything all-in on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(the most popular holdings on Wall Street) would have earned 15%
gains in 2009, bringing their holdings up to a value of $287,500.
(The DJIA earned only 15% in 2009.) With 9.5% gains in 2010, the
value inches forward to $314,812.50, still 37% lower than the value
at the beginning of 2008.
One person was
sitting pretty and ready for more gains in 2010 and 2011; while
the other is going to have to wait a very long time to recover at
the dismal rate of return of the Dow – a very sad story indeed.
In some cases, those kind of losses prevent people from being able
to retire. In even worse scenarios, the family home can be lost.
The chart below
tells the story even better. You can see clearly that buy and hold
was a great strategy between 1970 and 2000, but since 2000, the
only one making money was the person who was properly diversified
and annually rebalancing. This strategy worked fantastically during
the Dot Com Recession of 2000, the Great Recession of 2008, the
bull markets in between and will continue to work great going forward.

Take Away
Tips.
- For your
investments in individual stocks, take your profits early and
often.
- For your
nest egg, diversify, keep at least a percentage equal to your
age safe, know what is safe (i.e. not stocks or bond funds), add
in hot industries and rebalance annually.
There is a saying
on Wall Street: "A rising tide lifts all ships." I say, "A
sinking tide grounds all ships, too." So, no matter what the
potential for your company is, it's a good idea to have a strategy
for capturing gains. Otherwise, you might watch them drift
out to sea.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News,
CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com,
Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she
has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace,
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Investor IQ Test. 12 Answers.
by Natalie
Pace
Test your
knowledge of economics, stocks, returns and more. Learn more and
increase your return on investment!
- What are
the top 10 economies in the world?
The
World’s Largest Economies
Ranked by GDP 2010
|
Ranking
|
Country
|
GDP
(annual)
|
|
1.
|
USA
|
$14.7
trillion
|
|
2.
|
China
|
$9.9
trillion
|
|
3.
|
Japan
|
$4.3
trillion
|
|
4.
|
India
|
$4.046
trillion
|
|
5.
|
Germany
|
$2.96
trillion
|
|
6.
|
Russia
|
$2.229
trillion
|
|
7.
|
Brazil
|
$2.194
trillion
|
|
8.
|
United
Kingdom
|
$2.189
trillion
|
|
9.
|
France
|
$2.16
trillion
|
|
10.
|
Italy
|
$1.8
trillion
|
|
11.
|
Mexico
|
$1.56
trillion
|
|
12.
|
Korea
|
$1.467
trillion
|
|
13.
|
Spain
|
$1.4
trillion
|
|
14.
|
Canada
|
$1.3
trillion
|
|
15.
|
Australia
|
$890
million
|
Source: CIA.gov
World Fact Book
- Which
months performed the best on Wall Street for the last five years?
April, March, July, December and then September (see below).
Monthly
Returns of the S&P500 (annualized)
1991 Through 2010
|
Month
|
20
years
|
10
years
|
5
years
|
Price
Close 2010
|
|
January
|
0.09%
|
-1.61%
|
-2.89%
|
1073.87
|
|
February
|
-0.56%
|
-2.37%
|
-2.75%
|
1104.49
|
|
March
|
1.28%
|
1.05%
|
3.19%
|
1169.43
|
|
April
|
2.01%
|
2.71%
|
4.23%
|
1186.69
|
|
May
|
0.96%
|
0.66%
|
-0.46%
|
1089.41
|
|
June
|
-0.66%
|
-2.26%
|
-3.15%
|
1030.71
|
|
July
|
0.605%
|
0.062%
|
2.12%
|
1101.63
|
|
August
|
-0.40%
|
-0.18%
|
0.65%
|
1049.33
|
|
September
|
-0.07%
|
-0.94%
|
1.86%
|
1141.20
|
|
October
|
1.61%
|
1.44%
|
-0.23%
|
1183.26
|
|
November
|
0.54%
|
1.66%
|
-0.95%
|
1180.55
|
|
December
|
2.00%
|
1.25%
|
1.9%
|
1257.64
|
Source: Standard
and Poor’s data, Natalie Pace data crunch © 2011
- What was
the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last
five years? March, April and May with 7% for the three-month
period (on average).
- Which
months were the top performers on Wall Street for the last twenty
years? April, December, October and March.
- What was
the top performing quarter (3 months) on Wall Street for the last
twenty years? March, April and May with 4.25% gains
for the three-month period (on average), followed quite closely
by October, November and December with 4.15% gains.
- Which
30 companies are included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
Dow
Jones Industrial Average components
Effective March 27, 2011
|
3M
|
Du
Pont
|
McDonalds
|
|
Alcoa
|
Exxon
Mobil
|
Merck
|
|
American
Express
|
General
Electric
|
Microsoft
|
|
AT&T
|
Hewlett
Packard
|
Pfizer
|
|
Bank
of America
|
Home
Depot
|
Procter
& Gamble
|
|
Boeing
|
IBM
|
Travelers
Companies
|
|
Caterpillar
|
Intel
Corp.
|
United
Technologies
|
|
Chevron
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Verizon
|
|
Cisco
|
JP
Morgan Chase
|
Wal-Mart
|
|
Coca-Cola
|
Kraft
Foods
|
Walt
Disney Co.
|
Source: Money.MSN.com
- Which
year is the top performer in the election year cycle? Over
the 10-20 year (and beyond) cycle, the pre-election year is the
top performer by far. 2007 ruined this trend for the five-year
period, with the onset of the Great Recession.
Election
Year Trends of the S&P500
1991-2010
|
Period
|
Pre-election
years
|
Election
Years
|
Year
after election
|
2
years after election
|
|
5
years
|
3.53%*
|
-38.49%*
|
23.45%
|
13.2%
|
|
10
years
|
14.96%
|
-14.75%
|
4.47%
|
1.01%
|
|
20
years
|
21.97%
|
-2.98%
|
10.30%
|
5.63%
|
Source: Standard
and Poor’s data and Natalie Pace data crunch. © 2011
*The last
five years, particularly 2007-2008, reflect the Great Recession.
2008 was a horrible year for stocks, and it dramatically brings
down the average in election years. Without 2008, the average
election year return for the last 20 years is 5.9%.
- Which
year was worse for stocks, 2007, 2008 or 2009?
Many people
falsely believe, and it is commonly reported (erroneously) that
2009 was a rough year for Wall Street, when, in fact, it was a
banner year, with returns of 23.45%. 2008 was the worst year of
the Great Recession with negative -38.49% performance in the S&P500.
2007’s excellent rally was stopped in November. The S&P500
posted 9% gains between January and October 2007, but was stopped
in November 2007 when Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup
disclosed their massive exposure to subprime loans and fired the
executives responsible. 2007 ended the year with 3.53% gains,
largely due to market losses in November.
- Can you
still contribute to your IRA for the 2010 tax year?
Yes. The cutoff
date is April 15, 2011. For more information and details on which
IRA is right for you, visit
IRS.gov.
- Which
year did China’s economy surpass Japan? 2010. See below for
the Top Economies in 2009, and note that Japan was still ranked
#2 in the world then.
GDP
2009
|
Ranking
|
Country
|
GDP
(annual)
|
|
1.
|
USA
|
$14
trillion
|
|
2.
|
Japan
|
$5.07
trillion
|
|
3.
|
China
|
$4.9
trillion
|
|
4.
|
Germany
|
$3.3
trillion
|
|
5.
|
France
|
$2.6
trillion
|
|
6.
|
United
Kingdom
|
$2.2
trillion
|
|
7.
|
Italy
|
$2.1
trillion
|
|
8.
|
Brazil
|
$1.6
trillion
|
|
9.
|
Spain
|
$1.5
trillion
|
|
10.
|
Canada
|
$1.3
trillion
|
|
10.
|
India
|
$1.3
trillion
|
|
12.
|
Russian
Federation
|
$1.2
trillion
|
|
13.
|
Australia
|
$925
million
|
|
14.
|
Mexico
|
$875
million
|
|
15.
|
Korea,
Republic of
|
$836
million
|
Source: World Bank.
- Which
country entered the top 10 economies in the world in 2010? Russia.
- Which
two countries fell out of the top 10 economies in the world in
2010? Spain and Canada. .
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. She is a repeat guest on Fox News,
CNBC, ABC-TV and a contributor to HuffingtonPost.com,
Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com. As a philanthropist, she
has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public
schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/NWPace,
and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
|
|
2011 Company of the
Year.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks Report.
March 29,
2011
2011 Company
of the Year: Satcon (SATC).
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Monday,
1.2.2008
|
Monday,
1.2.2009
|
Monday
1.3.2011
|
Friday,
3.29.2011
|
Gains
3-yr,
2-yr & 3 mo.
|
|
Dow:
13,044.12
|
Dow:
9,034.69
|
Dow:
11,577.43
|
Dow:
12,273
|
-6%
& +36% & +6%
|
|
Nasdaq:
2,609.63
|
Nasdaq:
1,632.21
|
Nasdaq:
2,676.65
|
Nasdaq:
2,750
|
+5%
& +69% & +3%
|
|
S&P:
1,447.16
|
S&P:
931.80
|
S&P:
1,257.62
|
S&P:
1,317
|
-9%
& +41% & +5%
|
Wall
Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow
Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547
(3.9.09)
|
14,164
(10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ
Composite Index
|
1,114
(10.9.02)
|
5,060.34
(3.10.00)
|
Hot News
on Cool Stocks Important Data
Up to 15X
gains on U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ
Doubled the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains from 2009-2011
NASDAQ
Has Outscored Gold 2009-2011, 69% to 56%
13 out
of 14 Company of the Month features from 2010 posted gains. Woo
hoo!
Gold tops
stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years.

Compare those
returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills
and gold over the last 30 years.

Market
Update:
2011
Company of the Year: Satcon (SATC).
Since
this is a pre-election year, I want to pick the Company of the Year
early, in time for investors to capitalize on potential gains all
year long.
What’s to love
about Satcon? Almost everything. I’ve outlined a number of things
that make this company the ideal choice below. Also, be sure to
read my feature article from March 2011, entitled, "$100/Barrel
Oil Fuels Interest in Clean
Energy (Again)," when I first featured Satcon.
Click here
to review a Solar
Converter Stock Report Card. Satcon is
the star of 2011 for the following reasons.
11 Reasons
Why Satcon is the 2011 Company of the Year
- One of the
biggest reasons for featuring green grid leader Satcon is that
high oil prices, a recent oil spill and a recent nuclear crisis
have fueled renewed interest in solar and wind energy. During
the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in March of
2011, clean energy stocks rose in value, while the markets zigzagged,
with a downward trend.
- Satcon has
marquise brand customers, including Google, Suntech, SunEdison,
PG&E, Chevron and Bank of America.
- Satcon has
the first and best ‘panel to grid’ solar converter systems.
- Sales more
than tripled in 2010.
- Institutional
buyers have been lining up, including BlackRock. BlackRock purchased
almost 7 million shares, representing about 6% of Satcon, on February
8, 2011.
- The company
switched from cash negative to cash positive in the 3rd
quarter of 2010. Satcon is on track for a forward P/E of 9.76,
which is low for a company experiencing such outstanding growth.
- Customers
are worldwide, with $97 million of sales coming in from the international
community.
- 2011 order
backlog is $103 million. (Be aware that contracts can be cancelled
without penalty in most cases, however.)
- Dr. Leo Casey,
Satcon’s CTO, is the chairman of the High-Megawatt Inverter Program
at the Dept. of Energy and National Institute of Science and Technology.
- Gross profit
margins are improving at a dramatic pace, from 6.1% in 2009 to
25.4% in 2010, due to increased volumes during the period, lower
material costs on many of Satcon’s core products and the continued
expansion of Satcon’s manufacturing capacity and international
supply chain.
- Leader of
the pack: Satcon competes with Siemens (and other companies) in
this space, but has established itself as the go-to company for
innovation, reliability and follow-through. You can see this clearly
in the earnings growth. Satcon sales have tripled, outpacing the
competition.
Satcon is currently
trading at $3.73/share, however patient buyers have been able to
buy in as low as $3.16/share earlier this month.
Full Disclosure:
I own shares of Satcon. Satcon was added back to the Hot News list
on March 1, 2011.
Investor
Alerts:
1. OPEC:
On October 14, 2010, OPEC released a press
release stating that they had agreed upon a new "long
term strategy." The details of that strategy were scheduled
to be released at the December 11, 2010 OPEC meeting in Quito, Ecuador,
but were not. OPEC never responded to my inquiry requesting details
and/or the summary of the new LTS (which was sent on December 11,
2010). There is speculation that the strategy will be going from
the U.S. dollar valuation to a "basket of currency." If
that occurs, it will likely be distressing to investors, which OPEC
and government leaders are completely aware of. Watch and wait,
but definitely be aware of the potential.
2. Debt:
Refer to the CIA’s
World Fact Book for a listing of debt to GDP ratio by country.
The U.S. isn’t in the worst shape, but we are adding to the deficit
every year and approaching levels that were problematic for PIIGS
(Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), Japan and other countries.
Current debt to GDP (excluding $4.5 billion held by our federal
government) was 63.6% in 2010, according to the U.S.
Office of Management and Budget.
3. Real Estate:
There
were 2.9 million foreclosure filings in 2010. Foreclosure filings
in 2009 were 2.8 million, with 2.3 million in 2008 and 1.3 million
in 2007. 13 million homes could change hands before this real estate
correction is over, as foreclosures are predicted to continue apace
in 2011 and 2012. This likely means that there will not be much
upside in real estate values until 2013.
4. 911 Investor
Alert: Bonds:
Inflation
and interest rates have yet to weigh on the bond market (preview
of coming attractions), however debt has already begun to take its
toll. Don’t be suckered into muni bonds or any other bond before
understanding the debt load of the entity and the fiscal health/capacity
to make good on the bond. I penned multiple articles and interviewed
countless experts in 2010 on bonds. Peruse the archives and read
all of them!
5. Gold:
The International Monetary Fund will be selling up
to 191.3 metric tons of gold on the open market, a policy they announced
(and began) in February of 2010. For a brief history of gold and
information on which countries are the biggest holders of gold,
read, "The
Gold Crash of 1980," from the September 2010 ezine,
volume 7, issue 9.
So is There
Anything Good Out There?
Yes,
believe it or not, there are some excellent areas in the economy.
My 2009 Company of the Year, U.S. Gold, has posted up to 15X gains.
13 out of 14 Companies featured in my Company of the Month articles
in 2010 were winners. Your nest egg has almost fully recovered from
the Great Recession. If you have a great credit rating and can get
a loan, there are areas of the country where you can buy cash positive,
low risk income property. And even if you’re in trouble, in doubt,
losing a home or declaring bankruptcy, there are some very important
things to do to squirrel away as many assets as possible. The best
way to learn about these things is to read this ezine top to bottom,
read You
Vs. Wall Street and register to attend the next
Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat. Once you have wisdom and education
that you should have received in high school, all of this will be
easy and can be set up on auto-pilot. Until then, you are vulnerable
to more boom/bust markets.
Banks Are
Still Failing
There
were 157 bank failures in 2010, 140 bank failures in 2009 and 25
in 2008. 26 banks have already failed in 2011 (source: FDIC.gov).
Don’t be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of
them are fairy tales. (Nonproducing loans are carried off the books;
TARP and other Federal Reserve swaps are about as easy to figure
out as the origin of the life.) However, the $600 billion that the
Federal Reserve is putting in the mega-bank coffers between November
2010 and May 2011 should help their earnings reports shine up real
nice. 13 million homes could be lost between 2007 and 2012 and not
all of them hitting the financial statements with as much force
as they should...
Track
Record of our Reporting
While the
markets are still down significantly since their high in October
of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning
track record before, during and after the Great Recession – in bear
and bull market years. 92 positions listed over the last four
years – 79% -- have delivered impressive gains, even while the Dow
Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than it was in 2007
(when it cracked through 14,000)! Only twenty-five of our
listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which
is quite impressive given the market gyrations of more than 7000
point swings since 2008.
Remember that
the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing
years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice
a year, not trying to market time.)
4 out
of 7 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted up
to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware), up to 215% gains
(Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 15X ROI for U.S. Gold, respectively.
MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s
success with shareholders that year. So five out of seven
Company of the Year selections were superperformers. That’s the
kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street. (I launched
my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company
of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)
Some of my best
picks include: U.S. Gold (UXG) 15X return on investment, Google
(GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu
(SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up
to 9000% gains. 13 out of 14 companies featured in the Company
of the Month articles in 2010 earned gains – 93%!
The NataliePace.com
ezine was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- Muni bond and bond funds 911
Investor Alert in
Sept. 2010.
- 2008
Recession
(Get Safe)
- Trim back
on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Get out of
Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Google
at the IPO! (May 2004)
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
Market
Movers:
The
Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." The next
FOMC meeting takes place on April 26-27, 2011.
GDP Growth
Rates: Third estimate 4th quarter 2010 GDP growth
came in at 3.1% (better than expected). 1st quarter 2011
estimates will be released on April 28, 2011 at 8:30 a.m. ET. 3Q
2010 GDP growth was 2.6%. 2Q 2010 was 1.7%. 1Q 2010 was 3.7%.
These release
days tend to be very active on Wall Street. For more information
on GDP growth and other important economic statistics, go to the
BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar
section
often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the press
release of the March 15, 2011 FOMC meeting for yourself?
You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online.
Go to FederalReserve.gov to read! According to the Committee,
"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee
met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer
footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to
be improving gradually... The recent increases in the prices of
energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure
on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory,
but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation
and inflation expectations."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2011-2012 calendar is: April 26-27,
2011 (Tues.-Wed.), June 21-22, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), August 9, 2011
(Tuesday), September 20, 2011 (Tuesday), Nov. 1-2, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.),
December 13, 2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.), March
13, 2012 (Tuesday), April 24-25 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 19-20
(Tuesday-Wednesday), July 31 (Tuesday), September 12 (Wednesday),
October 23-24 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January
29-30, 2013 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section:
Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar
section of NataliePace.com regularly. You will find great opportunities
to attend the most exclusive business and Green Conferences, learn
about upcoming TV and radio shows and other educational opportunities
– many are FREE! Get more information on how to best use our articles
in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com.
Don’t miss
the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen
back to any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod
casts and are FREE!
BlogTalkRadio
offers a Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing
questions. Be sure to keep a list of your questions as they come
up, and join our ongoing dialog on peace and prosperity, getting
rich and enriching, green investing, the Thrive Budget and more
on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.
3.
Survey
Results:
Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. This month, we want to know about your broker
experience. Do you love your broker, or did your nest egg crack?
Cast your vote on our survey page.
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending)
and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement are scheduled for April 7, 2011 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (April
20, 2011 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual
stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
American
Superconductor (AMSC) added 2.14.11
AOL (AOL) added 2.14.11
Cree (CREE)
ENER1 (HEV)
Green Dot (GDOT) added on 4.1.11
Satcon (SATC) added 3.1.11
Profit-Taking:
LDK Solar
(LDK) +143%
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
None
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
3.29.11
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
American
Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$27.77
$24.28
(3.14.11)
|
$24.38
|
$38.88
$24.35
|
-13%
&
flat
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
AMSC
is a leader in renewable energy, providing proven, megawatt-scale
wind turbine designs and electrical control systems. The Company
also offers a host of Smart Grid technologies for power grid
operators that enhance the reliability, efficiency and capacity
of the power grid, and seamlessly integrate renewable energy
sources into the power infrastructure. These technologies
include superconductor power cable systems, grid-level surge
protectors and power electronics-based voltage stabilization
systems. The Company operates in two business segments: AMSC
Power Systems and AMSC Superconductors.
3Q
2011 released on 2.3.11:
$114
million in revenues, an increase of 42% over last year. Net
income tripled, from $5 million a year ago to $16 million.
$243
million cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities.
As
of December 31, 2010 and March 31, 2010, AMSC had
backlog of approximately $883 million and $588 million,
respectively. The increase in backlog was primarily the result
of a substantial new order received from AMSC’s largest customer,
Sinovel Wind Co., Ltd. ("Sinovel"), a manufacturer
of wind turbines based in China. Based on this level of backlog
and our pipeline of business, we believe we are well positioned
to continue our growth.
73%
sales are derived from one customer – Sinovel, increasing
risk level.
|
|
AOL
|
Yes
|
AOL
|
$21.22
$19.37
|
$19.65
|
$29.45
$19.61
|
-7%
&
flat
|
|
Read
"AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12.
AOL
purchased Huffington Post for $315 million in Feb. 2011 (Huff
generates upwards of $50 million). Perhaps the biggest value
is that AOL will have Arianna’s personal vision overseeing
the integration of the sites’ content on its various sites
and holdings. AOL owns Moviefone, Mapquest, among other popular
destinations.
Per
Nielsen Net Ratings,
AOL is the 10th most trafficked "web parent
companies" in the United States, with more time online
than the other top 9, at 51 minutes per person.
While
Tim Armstrong has his work cut out for him redefining this
brand, he has made great strides to increase profitability
and improve the customer experience on AOL. One subtle change
that AOL is using includes folding ads into the headlines
in a fairly unobtrusive way. Campbell’s is now offering Campbell’s
Kitchen, with Sunday Dinner Recipes and a recipe featured
on the home page/headline slot. The 1st 6 of 13
headlines on AOL are headline articles, while thereafter the
ads start kicking in, too. (There were five ads interspersed
with 13 total headlines on 2.11.11, including a Chevy Volt
ad.) According to CEO Tim Armstrong, speaking in an interview
with CNBC on Feb. 2011, the day AOL purchased the Huffington
Post, "AOL is planning on becoming the largest premium
content company on the Internet. We are going to deliver the
best content experience for consumers."
AOL
announced 4Q and FY results on Feb. 2, 2011. Full Year Revenue
was $2.4 billion, down 26% from a year ago. Net loss was $782
million. (Most of this Net loss was $1 billion in 2Q 2010
– restructuring related.)
AOL
renewed and expanded its global partnership with Google for
the provision of search services to AOL Properties. AOL
and Google agreed to work to expand the partnership
to include mobile search and Google will feature
AOL content on YouTube.
AOL
(and its properties including Moviefone and Mapquest) is in
the top 10 trafficked sites in the U.S., next to Google, Microsoft,
Yahoo, Facebook, eBay, News Corp. and Interactive Corp. The
fairly new CEO is a former key player in Google’s massive
growth. Can the company create money out of traffic?
"AOL
is working hard to redefine the consumer experience on the
Internet,"said Tim Armstrong, Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer. "In Q3, AOL continued on the path towards better
health through targeted acquisitions and smart dispositions,
meaningful product improvements, site relaunches, and strategic
partnerships, all of which will enable us to execute more
quickly against our strategy."
|
|
Cree
|
Yes
|
CREE
|
$52.10
$50.78
(2.1.11)
|
$45.26
|
$83.38
$31.12
|
-13%
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light"
and "LED
Lighting,"
from the December 1, and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue
8. Love the company. Revenue growth is solid. Sales to Asia
are strong. Future likes bright! And the price is finally
right.
Press
release on 3.23.11: Revenue targets have been reduced to a
range of $215 million to $220 million primarily due to lower
sales of LED chips and LED components. The stock tumbled 12%
immediately, as a result of this news.
Cree
announced on 3.21.11 that Bruce Renouard will join the company
as senior vice president – sales and business development
– a new position.
Expect
3Q earnings the third week of April.
|
|
ENER1
|
Yes
|
HEV
|
$3.68
|
$3.05
|
$5.36
$2.75
|
-17%
|
|
Read
"Earth
Hour"
in Vol. 8, issue 4 and "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)" from
Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact,
high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation
of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
Expect
1Q earnings the second week of May 2011.
4Q
Earnings on March 10, 2011: Net
sales were $33.1 million in the year's final quarter, an increase
of 202% over net sales of $11.0 million in the fourth quarter
of 2009. For fiscal year 2010, net sales were $77.4
million, an increase of 122% over net sales of $34.8 million
for 2009. Net loss for the year was $69 million.
On
1.18.11: Ener1
announced a JV deal with Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co. to
produce 40,000 battery backs in China by 2014. ENER1 owns
40% of the venture and will contribute intellectual property
and technical expertise. Wanxiang will contribute the factory
and labor (in China). China has set a target to produce 500,000
electric vehicles by the end of t2012, so the tea leaves look
very favorable for ENER1.
Ener1
signed a $40 million supply agreement with a wholly-owned
subsidiary of the Federal Grid Company (MICEX: FEES) for a
bulk energy storage program. Systems will be delivered and
installed at the end of the first quarter in 2011 and commissioned
in the second quarter of 2011. $36 million of revenue is expected
to be recognized in the first half of 2011, $4 million of
revenue in 2012. Basic and diluted net loss per share
was $0.18 in the third quarter of 2010 compared to $0.14 in
the third quarter of 2009.
Investors
are concerned about ENER1’s stake in THINK EVs, causing the
current pullback in interest. However, the government backing,
sales and more remain strong for ENER1.
|
|
Green
Dot
|
No
|
GDOT
|
$41.25
|
$41.25
|
$65.10
$41.13
|
--
|
|
Read
"IPO
of the Year"
from Vol. 7, issue 3.
On
March 21, 2011, Green Dot announced that board member W. Thomas
Smith, Jr. will not be running for re-election to the board
due to his commitments to his firm Total Technology Ventures,
LLC.
Shares
plunged earlier in the month after Janney Capital Markets
analyst Thomas McCrohan issued a Sell rating on Green Dot,
with a target price range of $40-$48.
Revenue
grew 41% in 2010, however the pace was much more slow toward
the end of the year, with sequential growth of only 3% from
the 3rd to the 4th quarter.
On
9.20.10, the Los Angeles Business Journal named Green Dot
CFO John Keatley CFO of the Year.
4Q
2010 Earnings (Feb. 10, 2011): Total operating revenues increased
32% to $91.8 million for the 4Q of 2010 from $69.6 million
for the 4Q of 2009. GAAP net income increased 14% to $7.9
million from $6.9 million one year ago. $167.5 million cash
on hand.
"We
have continued our mission of providing Americans with access
to safe, low-cost, FDIC-insured banking products to handle
their daily transactional needs," said Steve Streit,
Green Dot’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We
made further progress expanding our distribution channels
beyond retail when we were selected to serve as a program
manager for a U.S. Department of Treasury pilot program whereby
Americans can receive their federal tax refunds via direct
deposit to a prepaid debit card."
Cool
progress and steady, though not stellar growth, in a space
that is bound to see a lot more competition (from MasterCard
and Visa to name two). WalMart is a partner and investor.
|
|
Hoku
Scientific
Hawaii
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$1.75
(3.15.11)
|
$2.03
|
$14.55
$1.90
|
-75%
&
+16%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.
3Q 2010
earnings on 2.10.10: Revenues for the quarters ended December
31, 2010 and 2009 were $1.2 million and $259,000, respectively.
Net loss was $3.0 million.
Summarizing
the Company's progress during the quarter, Scott Paul, president
and chief executive officer of Hoku Corporation, said, "We
now expect to incur approximately $600 million of capital
costs before we can commence operation of the first 2,500
metric tons of production capacity. With this investment we
will also have substantially completed our onsite TCS production
facility. From there, we expect to invest up to an additional
$100 million to complete the second phase of construction,
which will allow us to commission our onsite TCS plant and
add an additional 1,500 metric tons of manufacturing capacity.
Thus, our revised capital budget for the full, planned 4,000
metric ton plant is now approximately $700 million." HOKU
expects to commence shipment of its own material in the second
half of calendar year 2011, using 3rd party trichlorosilane
(TCS), but "after commissioning our first phase of installed
equipment, we expect to pursue three objectives in parallel,"
according to Paul. "First, we will manufacture and ship
polysilicon using 2,500 metric tons of operational production
capacity. Second, we will continue construction activities
at our on-site chemical plant with the goal of manufacturing
our own TCS on-site by the end of calendar year 2011. Finally,
we will continue with our second phase of construction, installing
deposition reactors and support equipment until we reach our
full, planned 4,000 metric tons of production capacity," he
wrote in the 1st Quarter 2011 press release.
Hoku’s
Chief Technology Officer and co-founder Karl Taft resigned
on 11.16.10.
|
|
LDK Solar
GREEN
|
No
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$12.00
|
$15.10
$4.97
|
-60%
&
+143%
|
|
Read the articles, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
LDK is
benefitting from lots of press on China’s renewable energy
policy.
On Feb.
10, 2011, LDK announced they will be selling senior debt notes
to pay off prior debt. This will be available in China only
(not in the U.S.). (This is likely due to a number of factors,
including the relative ease of raising the capital in China
and the regulatory environment of the U.S. SEC, which could
delay or slow down the raise.)
On January
6, 2011, LDK purchased 70% of Solar Power Inc. for $33 million.
"We are
very pleased with this new strategic relationship," said Xiaofeng
Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "We have known the SPI
team for several years and have been very impressed with the
quality of their work and the caliber of the customers they
serve. We look forward to working closely with the team that
is responsible for outstanding solar projects such as the
Staples Center and the Aerojet solar farm," Chairman Peng
stated. "This transaction also expands our downstream vertical
integration opportunities and provides LDK Solar and SPI the
opportunity to jointly explore opening manufacturing operations
in the U.S. to further enhance SPI's competitive advantage
in North America."
On February
1, 2011. LDK closed a follow-on offering of 13.8 million shares
at a price of $12.40/share.
On 1.10.11:
LDK raised their outlook for annual earnings to revenue in
the range of $3.5 to $3.7 billion, with $870 to $910 million
for the 4th quarter. In the past, LDK has released
their annual reports in April, May or June. There is no call
or release scheduled at this time.
"We are
benefiting from our diversification strategy as we see increasing
contributions from our polysilicon, module and cell businesses.
As we gain further traction in these areas, we expect
to experience enhanced top line and earnings growth,"
according to Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar.
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$11.99
$11.00
(2.1.11)
|
$12.81
|
$19.31
$9.19
|
+7% &
+16%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
Expect
1Q earnings report the first week of May 2011.
The Japanese
earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis have interrupted operations
at MEMC Electronics Utsunomiya facility. This factory is 130
miles away from Sendai, so no one was hurt and there is expected
to be no real damage. However, MEMC has suspended operations
at the plant, pending "conclusion of building and equipment
safety inspections and an analysis of potential damage."
No update as of press time on March 29, 2011.
On Feb.
25, 2011 it was announced that SunEdison was awarded an additional
31 MW (AC) of Solar Projects by the Ontario Power Authority.
2.9.11:
SolarParking Canopy will provide 25-30% of Cal State Bakersfield
energy. The 1.2 MW solar parking canopy will generate over
1.6 million kilowatt hours (kWh) of clean energy in the first
year of operation and produce over 30 million kWh over 20
years. That is enough energy to power more than 3,100 average
U.S. homes for one year. The solar parking canopy will offset
more than 29 million pounds of carbon dioxide over the initial
20 years of operation – the equivalent of taking 2,800 cars
off the road.
"SunEdison
continues to provide smart solar solutions to universities
and school systems across our nation," said Jaime A. Smith,
U.S. Vice President of Commercial Systems for SunEdison. "By
bringing together our strong financing capabilities along
with cutting-edge technologies, SunEdison makes affordable
solar solutions a reality for universities like CSUB."
SunEdison
said Feb. 2, 2011 that it has agreements in place to install
more than 1,400 megawatts of solar panels, doubling its pipeline
of projects from 700 megawatts of projects a year ago.
FY results
were released on Feb. 1, 2011 at 5:30 p.m. ET. For the full
year, GAAP net sales were $2,239.2 million, an increase of
92% from $1,163.6 million in 2009. GAAP net sales include
$420.5 million in 2010 and $3.8 million in 2009 from the SunEdison
business. MEMC's GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was
$11.4 million, or $0.05 per share, compared to a net income
of $17.6 million, or $0.08 per share, in the third quarter
and a net loss of $7.1 million, or $0.03 per share, in the
prior year quarter.
MEMC
ended the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of
$707.3 million excluding $62.5 million of restricted cash.
"Our fourth quarter results extended MEMC's recent trend
of steady improvement, with SunEdison delivering its strongest
quarter to date," said Chief Executive Officer Ahmad Chatila.
"While semiconductor and solar end markets are dynamic, we
are improving our execution while continuing strategic initiatives
that will catalyze our growth in 2011 and beyond."
For the
full year of 2011, MEMC expects non-GAAP sales in the range
of $3.4 – 3.7 billion and earnings per share of $1.00 to $1.30.
MEMC expects GAAP sales in the range of $2.8 - $3.1
billion and earnings per share of $0.25 to $0.55.
|
|
PowerShares
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.91
|
$10.67
|
$11.42
$4.00
|
+8%
|
|
Read
"$100/Barrel
Oil" from
the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.
|
|
Satcon
2011
Company of the Year
|
Yes
|
SATC
|
$3.77
$3.16
(3.15.11)
|
$3.73
|
$5.51
$2.22
|
Flat
&
+18%
|
|
Read
"2011
Company of the Year,"
from Vol. 8, issue 4 and
"$100/Barrel
Oil" from
the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$24.83
$13.07
(7.1.10)
|
$16.78
|
$34.00
$10.11
|
-33%
&
+29%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
Sunpower
panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped
countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This
year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used
Sunpower panels.
Announced
3Q 2010 earnings on November 11, 2010: revenue of $551 million
vs. $384 million in Q2 2010. Expect the annual earnings
report in mid-March 2011.
" For
2011, we continue to see more demand than supply inour growing
Utility and Power Plants (UPP) and Residential and Commercial
(R&C) businesses. Operationally, our Fab 3 joint
venture completed initial solar cell production tests, achieving
conversion efficiencies of more than 22% and we remain on
plan for our 2011 cost reduction programs across the value
chain," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO.
Major
recent milestones include:
- Completed
sale of 28 megawatts (MW) of Italian power plants
- Commenced
marketing for approximately euro 200 million of project
debt for final phases of the Montalto solar park
- Awarded
10-MW contract from LS Power to build largest solar plant
in Delaware
- Announced
the availability of the company's Oasis power plant block
in Europe
- Announced
more than 20 MW of federal government projects in Q3
- Awarded
largest single roof top contract in the U.S. – 3.5 MW for
Macy's in Arizona
- Completed
initial cell production at company's 1,400 MW Fab 3 joint
venture with AU Optronics
2011
guidance was issued on 11.18.10.
-- 2011
GAAP revenue of $2.65 - $2.85 billion
-- 2011 GAAP gross margin of 19%-21%, Non-GAAP gross margin
of 20%-22%
-- 2011 GAAP EPS of $0.35-$0.65, 2011 non-GAAP EPS of $1.75
- $2.05
SunPower
also announced today that Allianz Renewable Energy Partners
IV Ltd. (a wholly owned subsidiary of Allianz SE) has signed
a definitive sale and purchase agreement to acquire 100 percent
of the equity in SunPower's wholly owned subsidiary, Orsa
Maggiore PV Srl, which owns the 15-megawatt (MWp) Solare Roma
photovoltaic power plant. SunPower designed and is building
the power plant and will provide ongoing operations and maintenance
services for the new owner.
|
|
Suntech
Power Holdings
|
No
|
STP
|
$14.26
$7.24
(12.1.10)
|
$9.49
|
$15.55
$7.05
|
-33%
&
+31%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic
(PV) module manufacturer. 3Q will be announced Nov. 17 before
the markets open.
Suntech
began manufacturing in the US on Oct. 8, 2010, at its Goodyear,
AZ HQ. Dept. of Energy Secretary Steven
Chu
visited Suntech and reported on it to The National Press.
4Q and
FY 2010 earnings (final) were reported on March 8, 2011.
Total
4Q revenues were $945.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2010,
representing growth of 27.1% sequentially and 61.9% year-over-year.
Full year total net revenues were $2.9019 billion in 2010,
representing 71.4% growth year-over-year. Net income for the
year was $262.3 million.
Guidance
for 2011 is expected to be $3.4-$3.6 billion revenue, with
margins increasing to 12%-14%.
David
King was named CFO on March 28, 2011. Amy Zhang, the former
CFO is resigning to pursue "other opportunities."
On March
21, 2011, Suntech announced a new solar installation on "the
roof of the world," in Tibet. The project should be complete
by the middle of the year and generate 20,000 MWh annually
for Tibetan residents. "With intense sunlight and cool temperatures,
Tibet is extremely well-suited for the utilization of advanced
photovoltaic technology," said Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's
Founder, Chairman and CEO. "We're proud to invest in preserving
the region's fragile ecosystem by providing an economically-viable
and sustainable solution for electricity generation. From
the desert sands of Arizona to the peaks of the Himalayas,
anyone can look up and harness nature's cleanest and most
abundant energy resource."
|
Deleted Companies
2010-2011:
Deleted
1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10:
Galaxy Resources with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21%
gains. Deleted 9.13.10: American Superconductor (flat)
& AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster busted out
in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10:
ENER1 was deleted with flat performance. 11.11.10: ENER1 was deleted
with 37% gains. VECO was deleted with 2% & 41% gains. 12.1.10:
KLIC was deleted with 12% gains. 1.14.11: Advanced Materials was
deleted with 30% gains. 2.2.11: BEARX with losses of 14%. 2.14.11:
U.S. Gold with 14.5X gains.
Deleted
Companies 2008-2009:
60 winners
and 9 losers.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
None
Stocks
to Watch
Some of
these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot
List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling
Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which! Note
that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List.
Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company.
Never pay retail!
Recent
Additions:
Amazon
(AMZN) on 3.15.11
Apple (AAPL) on 3.15.11
iShares Chile Fund (ECH) on 2.14.11
Ford (F) on 3.2.11
Google (GOOG) on 3.2.11
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) on 3.15.11
Sears (SHLD) on 3.1.11
iShares PHLX SOX Semi-conductors (SOXX) added on 2.14.11
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 3.1.11
VMWare (VMW) on 3.15.11
U.S. Gold (UXG) on 2.14.11
Wells Fargo (WFC) on 3.15.11
Recent
Deletions:
American
Superconductor (AMSC) (moved to Hot List on 2.14.11)
Altair
Nanotechnology (ALTI) removed 2.14.11
AOL (AOL) (moved to Hot List on 2.14.11)
PowerShares Emerging Markets Index (PIE) on 2.14.11
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
3.29.11
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Allscripts
Misys Healthcare Solutions
|
No
|
MDRX
|
$19.94
|
$20.82
|
$22.55
$15.65
|
+5%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform"
Vol. 7, issue 4.
|
|
Applied
Materials
2010
Company of the Year
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$15.32
|
$15.70
|
$16.94
$10.27
|
flat
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting,"
from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol.
7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the Year!
|
|
Amazon
|
No
|
AMZN
|
$168.07
|
$174.62
|
$191.60
$105.80
|
+4%
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a good price.
|
|
Apple
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$351.99
|
$351.11
|
$364.90
$199.25
|
Flat
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a god price. Also, be aware that Steve Jobs is on medical
leave of absence. Tim Cook, current COO, has been running
company many times during Jobs’ leaves and investors may be
accustomed to having him run the show, if Jobs should announce
his resignation. Also be aware that there have been a few
scandals of late with regard to the Chinese manufacturing
facilities of Apple. At least 58
workers in China
claim to be poisoned and are seeking redress from
Apple. Get more information at the below Chinese website.
You can
read the report entitled "The Other Side of Apple"
at http://business-humanrights.org/.
|
|
iShares
Australia Index
|
No
|
EWA
|
$20.34
|
$26.16
|
$26.36
$15.40
|
+29%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$124.96
|
$135.50
|
$131.61
$54.98
|
+8%
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a god price.
|
|
Berkshire
Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.B
|
$85.30
|
$84.75
|
$87.65
$68.48
|
flat
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a god price.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$43.09
|
$43.38
$27.82
|
+43%
|
|
Read
"Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
For a
more impressive discount retailer, check out Ross Stores.
|
|
Canadian
Imperial Bank
RISK:
Medium
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$86.22
|
$87.26
$61.12
|
+31%
|
|
Refer
to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars" article in
volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets are under
duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks were ranked
#1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009; Australia
was #2.
|
|
iShares
Chile Fund
|
No
|
ECH
|
$71.85
|
$70.40
|
$80.38
N/A
|
-2%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled"
article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
Citigroup
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
C
|
$2.26
|
$4.45
|
$5.15
$3.53
|
+97%
|
|
One of
the troubled, bailed out banks…
It’s
important to remember that we don’t really have a clue how
deep and wide the losses at these bailed out banks are. Most
of this is still hidden and the Feds are not releasing the
info, nor are the banks…
|
|
Eldorado
Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$10.56
|
$15.79
|
$20.23
$11.88
|
+49%
|
|
Read
"Investing
in Gold"
from Vol. 6, issue 9.
Eldorado
is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively
growing businesses in Brazil
China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. We are
one of the lowest cost pure gold producers.
|
|
iShares
Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EEM
|
$39.58
|
$47.24
|
$48.62
$35.21
|
+19%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
iShares
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EMB
|
$104.63
|
$106.46
|
$114.14
$92.42
|
+2%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
First
Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$156.84
|
$163.32
$98.71
|
+8%
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, issue 4.
First
Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer
sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive
advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price.
That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing
is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium
telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source
as silicon. Read the article for more details. They still
list CdTe as the semiconductor of choice on their website,
citing old data from 2004 that this is a good strategy. Be
forewarned!
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$51.36
|
$83.88
|
$83.96
$55.64
|
+64%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)"
from Vol. 6, issue 4 and
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?,"
from Vol. 7, issue
2.
1Q earnings
will be released on May 2, 2011 (Monday) after the markets
close. The webcast and call will be Tuesday, May 3, 2011 at
11:00 a.m. ET.
4Q &
FY 2010 earnings announced on 2.7.11: FMC Corporation reported
net loss of $53.5 million in the 4th quarter of 2010, versus
net income of $62.1 million a year ago. 4Q revenue of $810.5
million was 12 percent higher than the prior year.
Pierre
Brondeau, FMC president, chief executive officer and chairman,
said, "Our fourth quarter results provided a strong finish
to a record year for FMC. Agricultural Products realized higher
sales in all major product lines and most key regions. Specialty
Chemicals' performance was driven by broad-based volume growth
and operating cost reductions in lithium. Industrial Chemicals'
performance met expectations and is now strategically realigned
and well positioned to deliver sustained higher margins, greater
earnings stability and superior return on net assets."
|
|
Ford
Motor Company
|
No
|
F
|
$14.55
|
$14.86
|
$18.97
$4.71
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive,
but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any
investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler
and GM are present here – lots of debt, pensions and Other
Post Employment Benefit Obligations. Ford built cars that
won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest). And
for that they get a big bravo…
Ford’s
total debt is over $100 billion and their credit rating is
below investment grade, at BB- (as of 2.1.11, by S&P).
On March
15, 2011, Ford is planning to reduce the "automotive"
portion of their colossal debt by another $3 billion by redeeming
all of the outstanding 6.50% Cumulative Convertible Trust
Preferred Securities (liquidation amount $50 per trust preferred
security) (NYSE: F PR S) of its subsidiary trust, Ford Motor
Company Capital Trust II, at a redemption price of $50.33
per trust preferred security, plus accrued and unpaid distributions
of $0.5416667 per trust preferred security. Instead of cash,
securities holders may opt for 2.8769 shares per trust preferred
security, which amounts to bond holders converting to stock
at a price of $17.88/share. The move should save $190 million
per year in interest charges. Ford will take a $60 million
charge in the 1st quarter as a result of the redemption.
3.1.11:
February sales were strong. Ford is offering $204 million
in shares to employees as long term incentives.
|
|
Galaxy
Resources
RISK:
HIGH
(off
the boards, thinly traded)
|
No
|
GALXF
|
$1.17
|
$1.33
|
$1.80
$0.79
|
+14%
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?,"
from Vol. 7, issue
2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and China.
Traded off the boards in the US, but is listed on the Australia
Stock Exchange and has listing planned for the Hong Kong stock
exchange by March 22, 2011 (the date of the annual meeting).
197 million shares will be issued for the listing in Hong
Kong.
According
to a press release issued on Feb. 1, 2011, "The The first
shipment of spodumene from Mt
Cattlin
to an external lithium carbonate producer in China is now
scheduled for late in the Q1 2011. The revised schedule is
due to delays in receiving the necessary approvals for Esperance
Port as well as the ramp up at Mt Cattlin plant being slower-than-expected."
You can read an update on Milestones on the Galaxy
Resources
website. The markets could take the share price lower still,
but Galaxy has two strong components – Australia-based company
in an emerging market – lithium.
|
|
General
Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$33.11
|
$31.10
|
$39.48
$33.07
|
-6%
|
|
Read
"One
Very Hot IPO,"
from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9. Chevy Volt
won Motor Trend’s 2011 Car of the Year, but can GM
regain market share from worldwide market leader, Toyota?
GM may have shed a lot of debt in the bankruptcy filing, however,
the company’s profit margins remain less than 1%, at 0.27%...
Toyota is almost seven times as profitable, at 1.81% profit
margins, with 64% more sales, at $56 billion in sales in the
3rd quarter, as compared to $34 billion in quarterly
sales for GM. Nonetheless, the Motor Trend award may lure
investors in this year.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$600.40
|
$581.73
|
$642.96
$433.63
|
-3%
|
|
See Vol.
8, issue 2 article, "Big
Bites out of Apple and Google,"
and Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes."
Excellent company and great anchor for your large caps in
the nest egg, with one huge hitch – the company has just shaken
up the board room, appointing Larry Page as the CEO (effective
April 1, 2011), moving Dr. Eric Schmidt, whom everyone considers
to be the mastermind from Google the search engine to Google
the ubiquitous Internet and phone behemoth, to executive chairman.
Sergey Brin will handle "strategic projects" without
a real title, except "co-founder." Consensus, colossal
insider selling has ensued since the announcement.
Commenting
on these changes, Dr. Eric Schmidt said: "We've been talking
about how best to simplify our management structure and speed
up decision making for a long time. By clarifying our individual
roles we'll create clearer responsibility and accountability
at the top of the company. In my clear opinion, Larry is ready
to lead and I'm excited about working with both him and Sergey
for a long time to come."
On Nov.
30, 2010, The European Union opened an inquiry into Google,
investigating whether or not Google violated antitrust laws
with their search dominance.
Announced
4Q results on Jan 20, 2011.
Google
reported revenues of $8.44 billion for the quarter ended December
31, 2010, an increase of 26% compared to a year ago. GAAP
net income in the fourth quarter of 2010 was $2.54 billion,
compared to $1.97 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Cash
– As of December 31, 2010, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable
securities were $35 billion.
Headcount
– On a worldwide basis, Google employed 24,400 full-time employees
as of December 31, 2010.
|
|
KLA Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$47.54
|
$47.54
|
$51.83
$26.69
|
--
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8. With revenue
double over last year profit margins of 20%, and P/Es of 15.70,
even at this price KLAC seems undervalued. However, in such
a volatile market as we’re in, buying low is critically important
to ROI. Stays here for now.
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Kulicke
and Soffa Ind.
|
No
|
KLIC
|
$8.71
|
$9.38
|
$10.58
$4.03
|
+8%
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light"
and "LED
Lighting,"
from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol.
7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the Year!
1Q earnings
report on 2.1.11: Net revenue of $148.9 million and net income
of $15.1 million. 4Q 2010 revenue was $259.3 million and net
income was $56 million. This was expected and announced (which
is largely why the company was placed on the Cooling Off list).
KLIC
has a new CEO & CFO, is moving offices to Singapore and
offered earnings guidance of $125 million – down almost 50%
from the 4th quarter. Yikes! As might be expected,
there is consensus, colossal insider selling…
Consensus
colossal insider selling on Nov. 4, 2010.
|
|
iShares
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund
|
No
|
ILF
|
$43.92
|
$52.32
|
$54.87
$39.21
|
+19%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled"
article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
PowerShares
Lux Nanotech
|
No
|
PXN
|
$9.80
|
$9.55
|
$10.85
$7.74
|
Flat
|
|
Potential
hot industry for your pie chart. Read the 2010
Company of the Year
article from December 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 12. Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$200.88
|
$237.38
|
$247.55
$62.08
|
+18%
|
|
Read
"Blockbuster’s
Second Coming"
from Vol. 7, issue 5. 80 P/E is too frothy for our taste,
especially while Netflix’ content continues to lag behind
the competition. Great, innovative company. Not a short. Just
don’t want people buying in high.
|
|
Oracle
|
No
|
ORCL
|
$33.47
|
$33.16
|
$33.59
$21.24
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"Big
Bites out of Apple and Google"
from the February 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2.
|
|
iShares
MSCI All Peru Index Fund
|
No
|
EPU
|
$34.69
|
$44.70
|
$51.35
$29.79
|
+28%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds,"
from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled"
article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RIO
|
$54.60
|
$70.18
|
$76.67
$39.30
|
+28%
|
|
Gold,
copper and other commodities mining. Based out of UK. Mines
worldwide, but focused greatly in Australia. Annual general
meeting is May 26, 2010 in Melbourne, Victoria. 4:1 stock
split took place on April 30, 2010.
FY 2010
released on Feb. 10, 2011. Record
underlying earnings1
of
$14.0 billion, 122 per cent above 2009. Net debt reduced to
$4.3 billion at 31 December 2010, from $18.9 billion at 31
December
2009.
$5 billion share buyback program now through year end 2012.
Net earnings are up to $14 billion in 2010, over $4.9 billion
in 2009. Chairman Jan du Plessis said “This year’s record
results reflect a combination of strong commodity markets,
first class assets and excellent operational performance at
our managed operations.
Prices
improved for nearly all of Rio Tinto’s major commodities:
copper prices were up 47 per cent, molybdenum prices were
up 45 per cent, gold prices were up 26 per cent and aluminium
prices were 31 per cent higher than 2009. Demand and prices
for diamonds and minerals improved significantly as the worldwide
economy emerged from the global financial recession.
|
|
Ross
Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$70.18
|
$71.81
$45.65
|
+97%
|
|
Read
"Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have been growing steadily in
this discount marketplace, especially given the "jobless
recovery." Profit margins are slim, however, 7%.
|
|
Sears
|
No
|
SHLD
|
$83.42
|
$80.25
|
$125.42
$59.21
|
-4%
|
|
Sears
is more of a hedge fund than a store these days.
|
|
Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$40.67
|
$50.78
|
$50.78
$18.43
|
+24%
|
|
Read
"Diamonds
or Scrapbooking,"
from the November 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11. PE is 78
– far too high for our taste – especially for a company that
will post a loss in the next quarter.
4Q and
FY earnings was released on Feb. 2011. Net revenues increased
27% in the 4th quarter 2010, to $166.2 million.
GAAP net income for the full year was $17.1 million, compared
to $5.9 million a year ago. Cash on hand is $252 million.
Forward
outlook for the 1st Q 2011: net revenues of $52-$53
million. GAAP operating loss of $12-13 million.
|
|
Skype
|
No
|
NA
|
IPO
|
IPO
|
NA
|
--
|
|
Read
"High
Debt Vs. High Risk,"
from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9. Still a-waiting
for this IPO... Most recent report from Wired
says the IPO will drop in the second half of 2011. Meanwhile,
LinkedIn, GroupOn and Facebook could join the IPO party.
|
|
Sociedad
Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$36.36
|
$53.61
|
$60.33
$30.70
|
+46%
|
|
This
is a great company that manufactures silicon for the solar
and IT industry. Looking for a better buy-in, after we get
through the current down-trending volatility. Announces 4Q
2010 results on March 1, 2011 after the markets close.
Read
the article,
"Treasure
Hunting,"
in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium),"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
SQM began
paying a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592
per share, with US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11,
2011.
4Q and
FY earnings on March 1, 2011. Revenue was $1.8 billion, 27%
higher than $1.438 billion a year ago. Net income was $382.1
million, 13% higher than 2009. Cash on hand = $525 million.
$1.7 billion in debt.
Businesses
include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium.
|
|
Sohu
(Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing,
China
Small
Cap
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$89.60
|
$90.48
$40.05
|
+93%
|
|
Chinese
based Internet portal. Growing and profitable, with 32% net
profit margins.
|
|
iShares
S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
IGW or
SOXX
|
$45.93
|
$59.58
|
$64.19
$14.03
|
+30%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year
from Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Tesla
|
No
|
TSLA
|
$25.75
|
$23.92
|
$36.42
$14.98
|
-6%
|
|
Read
"Tesla
Trades on NASDAQ"
from Vol. 7, issue 7.
Should
you buy now? Very volatile stock. Also, production is just
now starting on the new lower-priced sedan. It’s at a former
Toyota factory, which places a lot of ducks in a row, however,
ramping up for production is something that can be wrought
with delays and other unexpected kinks. Combine that with
competition for the Leaf and the Volt, and you have a more
vulnerable company. The Leaf is lower-priced and has a lot
less battery power and distance. The Volt is a hybrid, more
like the Prius. However, the Volt just won the 2011 Car of
the Year Award! Another concern is that Tesla CEO, product
architect and Chairman Elon Musk is also the CEO and CTO of
SpaceX and the chairman of SolarCity.
FY results
were announced on Feb. 15, 2011. On a full year basis, 2010
revenues were $116.7 million as compared with revenues of
$111.9 million reported in the prior year. Gross margin improved
to 26% for the full year 2010, up from 9% for 2009. Net loss
for the year was $154.3 million as compared to $55.7 million
in 2009.
According
to Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, the Model S "is well
on its way toward becoming the vehicle of choice for 2012."
Panasonic
purchased 1,418,573 shares of Tesla for $30 million (about
$21/share). According to the Tesla press release, "Tesla
and Panasonic are continuing their development of next generation
battery cells designed specifically for electric vehicles."
|
|
Tidewater
|
No
|
TDW
|
$41.81
|
$61.22
|
$57.98
$37.99
|
+46%
|
|
Read
"Clean
Up"
from Vol. 7, issue 6.
3Q on
Feb. 4, Revenues of $271.8 million, compared to $286.5 million
a year ago. Net earnings were $34.4 million, compared to $60
million a year ago. Included in net earnings for the September
30, 2010 quarter was a $4.35 million ($4.35 million after-tax,
or $0.09 per common share) charge included in general and
administrative expenses related to an agreement in principle
with the United States Department of Justice to resolve the
previously disclosed Foreign Corrupt Practices Act investigation.
Tidewater
was the hero of the BP oil spill. Thanks to the rapid response
of Capt. Alwin Landry and his crew of 12, the loss of life
on April 20, 2010 was limited to 11. 115 workers were rescued,
cared for and shipped 110 miles to dry land. Tidewater’s share
price has taken a hit as a result of having losses from "seized
assets" and unpaid accounts receivable in Venezuela and
a fine/agreement involving a SEC investigation into U.S. Foreign
Corrupt Practices Act. Tidewater Inc. owns 384 vessels, the
world’s largest fleet of vessels serving the global offshore
energy industry.
|
|
Trina
Solar Ltd.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$35.12
|
$28.47
|
$35.12
$14.85
|
-19%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
Announces
4Q and FY 2010 earnings on February 22, 2011 at 8:00 a.m.
ET.
4Q
& FY earnings announced on Feb. 22, 2011: Total net
revenues were $1.86 billion, an increase of 119.8% from 2009.
Net income for the full year was $311.5 million, an increase
of 223.7% from 2009
The SEC
is concerned with the way that Trina is booking revenue that
hasn’t yet been received. At this point, it appears that the
conversation is two-way and no charges are pending.
Announced
an agreement to supply solar modules to SunEdison, a subsidiary
of MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. ("MEMC"). Under the terms
of the agreement signed with MEMC, the Company is expected
to supply SunEdison with approximately 35 MW of PV modules
over the remainder of 2010
--
Announced the signing of a Letter of Agreement with
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ("MIT") to become
a member of its Industrial Liaison Program, a program devoted
to promoting university-industry collaboration, innovation
and technology sharing
"We are
very pleased with our outstanding performance in the fourth
quarter, which saw record shipment volume and resulted in
our exceeding previous guidance for both the fourth quarter
and full year 2010," said Mr. Jifan Gao, Chairman and CEO
of Trina Solar.
|
|
U.S.
Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
Company
of the Year 2009
|
No
|
UXG
|
$7.23
|
$8.57
|
$9.00
$2.02
|
+19%
|
|
Note:
U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold
exploration company, based in Nevada and Mexico which has
begun the process of filing for production permits, with a
goal of producing gold by 2014.
U.S.
Gold announced on Valentine’s Day that they intend to offer
15 million shares, plus an over-allotment of 2.25 million
additional shares. CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen will purchase
$20 million. (The overall raise should be in the $124 million
range.) The funds will be used "to complete feasibility
study work and acquire long lead-time capital items for the
El Gallo Project in Mexico, complete pre-feasibility and feasibility
work at the Gold Bar Project in Nevada, continue ongoing aggressive
exploration programs in Mexico and Nevada and for general
corporate purposes," according to the company. At that
time, we removed U.S. Gold from the Hot News List, meaning
that we believed the share price would be under pressure.
On February 18, 2011, U.S. Gold announced that the share price
for the offering would be $6.50/share (and we sent out a note
to subscribers).
What
does this mean for you, the investor? As the company enters
into pre-production mode, the share price becomes more vulnerable.
U.S. Gold veteran Rob McEwen proved he could find gold and
silver. Now he has to prove that he can build a mine and extract
it from the ground. As with any construction project, that
means lots of forms, inspections and rigmarole. Gold prices
can continue to rise and I also have faith in the vision of
veteran gold mining CEO Rob McEwen. However, the pre-production
phase of any company is one where the share price can lag
on investor concerns of timelines, delays, etc. It is your
call whether or not you wish to keep a skin in the game during
this period or not. Ultimately, U.S. Gold could become as
great of a company (and as valuable) as Goldcorp did under
McEwen’s leadership. The share price has fluctuated over the
past year, however, going as low as $5.35/share in November
of 2010, and it did take Mr. McEwen 18 years to make Goldcorp
the great company that it is today.
U.S.
Gold began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov.
2, 2010, and has a goal of qualifying for the S&P 500
by 2015. Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX
Global Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago Board
of Options Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the
AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto
Stock Exchange.)
According
to the press release issued on 2.7.11, "Baseline environmental
studies have been initiated and permitting for full mine operations
is scheduled to be completed concurrently with the feasibility
study. The project is currently estimated to reach commercial
production in early 2014." Average annual silver production
is expected to be 5 million, with 50,245 ounces of gold annually.
U.S.
Gold was the 2009
Company of the Year.
The article was featured in the October 2009 ezine, Vol. 6,
issue 10.
|
|
Veeco
|
No
|
VECO
|
$44.08
|
$50.24
|
$54.50
$29.54
|
+14%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting,"
from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year
from Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
1Q earnings should be released at the end of April 2010. (See
below for important details.)
Reported
4Q and FY 2010 results on 2.7.11. $300 million in revenue
for the 4Q, compared to $119.1 a year ago. Net income of $96.7
million, compared to $16 million last year.
John
R. Peeler, Veeco’s Chief Executive Officer, commented, "The
fourth quarter of 2010 was the best in our history, and we
are extremely proud of our performance. These results were
achieved through a combination of world-class products, a
focus on high-growth market opportunities, operational excellence,
our flexible manufacturing strategy, and a deep commitment
to satisfying our global customers... Veeco will help enable
the industry’s transition to LED lighting."
Quarter
end backlog was $555 million.
1Q 2011
guidance: "Q1 2011 revenues will be lower than Q4 2010
because we are planning to ship 12-20 MOCVD reactors in the
new MaxBright "cluster" format, and will not be
recording any revenue on these systems in the first quarter.
Timing of revenue is also being impacted by the longer order-to-revenue
cycle times associated with the high percentage of business
currently coming from China, primarily due to customer facility
readiness. The average time to convert orders to revenue is
currently several months longer in China than in other regions."
Peeler
sold $2.6 million of stock on 2.11.11 ( a few days after earnings)
at $52.82.
|
|
VMWare
|
No
|
VMW
|
$83.26
|
$80.18
|
$97.30
$25.27
|
-4%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform"
Vol. 7, issue 4. P/E is high, even for this great company!
Love the company – at a better price...
|
|
Wells
Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$32.25
|
$31.59
|
$34.25
$23.02
|
Flat
|
|
I can’t
tell you how many people I know who haven’t paid their mortgage
in six months (or longer) but are still in their homes. Bank
earnings statements right now are the biggest fairy tales
ever told. Additionally, WFC credit card holders report getting
charged 29.9% interest rates, while class action lawsuits
against WFC continue to mount. However, the Feds keep giving
the banks money and the SEC keeps allowing banks to carry
their losses off the books. Which means that investors could
still be suckered into owning bank stock.
See
"Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings" in
volume 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12.
Wells
Fargo Chairman takes early retirement:
Dick
Kovacevich stepped down as chairman and a director at the
end of 2009.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$73.54
|
$124.15
|
$133.55
$85.72
|
+69%
|
|
Issued
it’s full-year results on Nov. 3, 2010. Go to Westpac.com.au
to access. Australian banks fared far better than the rest
of the world banks. So did Canadian banks. P/E is good, but
the price is high compared to the 52-week trend.
Key financial
highlights (comparisons are with prior year):
• Cash
earnings per share of 197.8 cents, up 21%
•
Final dividend of 74 cents, bringing fully franked total dividend
to 139 cents, up 20%
•
Impairment charges of $1,456 million, down 56%
•
Statutory net profit of $6,346 million, up 84%
•
Cash earnings of $5,879 million, up 26%
Westpac’s
Chief Executive Officer, Gail Kelly, said: "Westpac has
nearly three billion shares on
issue and over 560,000 shareholders. We are very conscious
of the role we play in the secure
and stable national banking system that underpinned Australia’s
strong performance through
and after the global financial crisis. We also know the important
contribution our shares,
and particularly our dividends, make to the retirement savings
of so many Australians.
"It
is in that context that I am very pleased with this year’s
result, demonstrating further improvement
in the Group’s businesses as we move into the third year of
implementing our customer
centric, multi-brand strategy."
Net profit
of $2,875 million, up 32% from a year ago.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
ALERT: We
are in the middle of the 2011 Spring Rally. Not the best time to
initiate new short positions, outside of shorting the Bears and
muni bonds. Many of the NASDAQ stocks on the list are here simply
to keep you from buying them high.
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Orocobre
(OROCF) added on 4.1.11
DELETIONS:
Amazon
(AMZN) on 3.11.11
American
Express (AXP) on 3.11.11
Apple (AAPL) on 3.11.11
Baidu (BIDU) on 3.15.11
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) on 3.15.11
Capital One (COF) on 3.15.11
Ford (F) on 3.11.11
Intel (INTC) on 3.15.11
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) on 3.15.11
Netflix (NFLX) on 3.14.11
PIMCO Muni Bond Fund (MUNI) on 3.15.11
Sears (SHLD) on 3.1.11
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 3.1.11
Transocean (RIG) on 3.15.11
VMWare (VMW) on 3.15.11
Wells Fargo (WFC) on 3.15.11
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
3.29.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
EBAY
|
$29.36
|
$31.08
|
$35.35
$19.06
|
+5%
|
|
Think
etail will perform better than retail going forward, but concerned
about investors expecting too much from these companies in
an overbought marketplace – even if the Feds are pushing people
out of treasuries.
|
| Orocobre |
No |
OROCF |
$2.62 |
$2.62 |
$4.03
$1.29
|
-- |
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2. This is an Australian lithium
company with a deal with Toyota to supply lithium for lithium
ion batteries. Began trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
in June of 2010 and trades on the Australian Stock Exchange
as well.
Orocobre
issued almost 7 million new shares in the price range of $3.20
Canadian on Feb. 25, 2011 to fund ongoing design work, pilot
plan operation and other activities in relation to the construction
of the Salar de Olaroz.
Recent
trouble: On March 7, 2011, Orocobre announced that the Argentinian
government is slowing down the permit process for the proposed
lithium potash project in NW Argentina. On March 4, 2011,
the local government declared lithium to be a strategic mineral
resource and introduced a secondary approvals process. According
to the decree, additional approval will be required for both
the Olaroz lithium-potash project for which the Company has
already received approval of its development and production
EIS, and the Cauchari lithium-potash project, for which an
exploration EIS has been submitted. This new process does
not affect the Company’s program at Salinas Grandes, which
is predominantly located in Salta Province.
The
company is based in Brisbane, Queensland, which had extensive
flooding. The company’s projects are located in South America,
so it’s possible that the floods won’t impact this company
severely. Lithium production isn’t projected to begin until
2012 and with the new developments in Argentina, this could
be further delayed.
Orocobre
Limited is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and
Toronto Stock Exchange (ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) and is the leading
lithium-potash developer in the lithium and potassium rich
Puna region of Argentina. For further information, please
visit www.orocobre.com.
|
|
Rochester
Municipals Bond Fund
|
No
|
RMUNX
|
$14.86
|
$14.66
|
$16.91
$14.49
|
-1%
|
|
Read
"Bond
Beautification Project"
from Vol. 7, issue 10 and "Bonds,
Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster,"
from Vol. 7, issue 9.
|
|
Priceline
|
No
|
PCLN
|
$337.82
$437.99
(1.14.11)
|
$491.69
|
$491.69
$173.32
|
+45%
&
+12%
|
|
Read
the article "The
Priceline Negotiator," from Vol. 7,
issue 10. Great company. Not a short. Just don’t want people
buying in high.
2.23.11:
Released 4Q and FY earnings: 4Q revenue was $731 million;
net profit was $175 million.
|
|
Taubman
Centers REIT
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$55.47
(3.1.11)
|
$52.34
|
$55.90
$21.85
|
+208%
&
-6%
|
|
Read
the article, "Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June
2009.
|
|
Time
Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
$31.78
(9.11.10)
|
$34.97
|
$50.70
$17.81
|
+43%
&
+9%
|
|
Read
the article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May
2009.
|
| Toyota
Motor Company |
No
|
TM
|
$77.05
(2.12.10) |
$79.71
|
$93.74
$67.56
|
+3% |
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2 and "One
Very Hot IPO" from Vol. 7,
issue 9.
The earthquake
and nuclear crisis in Japan could way heavily on Toyota, and
some of the company factories are shut down for now. According
to a statement issued by Toyota President Akio Toyoda on March
29, 2011, "Not only is the struck region one of our production
bases, those directly hit and vastly affected include our
dealers, suppliers and numerous other partners." Replacement
parts production resumed on March 17. 233 parts out of 300,000
actively produced will be controlled for now, until production
returns to normal.
Toyota
continues to be the #1 automaker and a fave among greenies.
The industry is vulnerable, however, and investors should
be aware of the price and that 55 P/E is very high for a slow
growth industry – especially given the unfortunate disaster
that just occurred.
3Q earnings
report on 2.8.11 was strong: Consolidated vehicle sales for
the nine months amounted to 5.517 million units, an increase
of 322 thousand units compared to the same period last fiscal
year. Net income* increased from 97.2 billion yen to 382.7
billion yen. Net revenues for the nine-month period totaled
14.351 trillion yen, an increase of 5.0 percent compared to
the same period last fiscal year.
|
| PowerShares
Treasury Bill Index Fund |
No
|
PLW
|
$30.02
|
$27.41 |
$30.02
$26.30
|
-8%
|
| Read
"Don’t
Get Fooled Again,"
from Vol. 7, issue 8. When interest rates rise, bonds and bond
funds fall in value. Time to find another "safe" place
for your assets. |
|
Wynn
Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
$118.81
(1.14.11)
|
$125.88
|
$132.25
$71.00
|
+32%
&
+6%
|
|
Check
out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in
Vol. 5, issue 10.
Wynn
is a great marketer and capital raiser. However, Vegas is
one of the worst places for real estate in the U.S. and the
city has taken a huge hit as a convention center as well.
Be very careful here.
|
|
Yahoo
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$15.00
$16.98
(12.15.10)
|
$16.75
|
$19.12
$13.52
|
+12%
&
-2%
|
|
Read
the "AOL"
article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card
on Yahoo from December 2009.
|
Deleted
in 2010-2011:
Deleted AMAT
on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be double
or more). 8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%), MDT
(-4% & -24%), MSFT (-20%) -- all for gains. Deleted MGM 9.13.10
for 61% gains. Deleted Tesla on 1.14.11 with 20% & 24% gains.
3.1.11: Deleted Shutterfly with -12% performance (cooling off gain)
and Sears with mixed results (up & down). 3.11.11: Deleted PIMCO
Muni Bond fund with flat performance. Deleted Amazon, American Express,
Capital One, Ford, Kulicke & Soffa, Netflix, Taubman, VMWare
with mixed results. Deleted Apple, Baidu, Berkshire Hathaway, Intel,
Transocean & Wells Fargo with losses.
Deleted
2008-2009:
19
gainers and no losers.
Recently
Deleted:
Amazon
(AMZN) on 3.15.11
Apple
(AAPL) on 3.15.11
American Express (AXP) on 3.2.11
Baidu (BIDU) on 3.15.11
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) on 3.15.11
Capital One (COF) on 3.15.11
Ford (F) on 3.2.11
Google (GOOG) on 3.2.11
Intel (INTC) on 3.15.11
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) on 3.15.11
PIMCO Muni Bond Fund (MUNI) on 3.15.11
Tesla (TSLA) on 1.14.11
Sears (SHLD) on 3.1.11
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 3.1.11
Transocean (RIG) on 3.15.11
VMWare (VMW) on 3.15.11
Wells Fargo (WFC) on 3.15.11
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Earth
Day. Mother’s Day. The Milken Global Conference. Berkshire Hathaway’s
Annual Meeting. And more.
 |
| Ben Affleck
presenting at the Vital Voices Global Leadership Awards. |
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add
online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are
booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section
at NataliePace.com.
Global
Leadership Awards, DC
Tuesday, April
12th, 2011
7:30PM through 10:00PM
The Vital Voices Global Leadership Awards
honor and celebrate women’s leadership around the world. Democracy.
Opportunity. Human rights. Economic empowerment.
Passover
April
18-26, 2011
Earth
Day!
Friday,
April 22nd, 2011
How are you celebrating Earth Day? Planting
a tree or donating to Make It Right NOLA? Why not support green
housing in New Orleans.
Easter
Sunday,
April 24th, 2011
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday, April
26th, 2011
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to
determine Federal Reserve policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting April
26-27, 2011.
GDP
1Q 2011 (Advance Est.)
Thursday,
April 28th, 2011
8:30AM through 8:45AM ET
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA.gov) releases its advance estimate on GDP growth in
the 1st Q of 2011.
Berkshire
Hathaway Annual Meeting
Saturday,
April 30th, 2011
The theme this year is Planes, Trains and
Automobiles. This gives NetJets, BNSF and BYD a chance to show off.
Milken
Global Conference
May 1-4, 2011
Presidents, CEOs, VIPs, Nobel Prize winners,
academics, policymakers. Participants don’t just debate the issues
— they help move policy toward realistic solutions in energy, economics,
health and more.
Mark
Morris Dance Group, LA, CA
Thursday,
May 5th, 2011
The Mark Morris Dance Group With Handel's
pastoral ode as the musical landscape, and set to the poetry of
John Milton, along with sets inspired by William Blake's later watercolors...
at LA Opera.
Mother's
Day
Sunday,
May 8th, 2011
Celebrate and honor Moms!
Hang
Out Music Fest, Orange County, AL
Friday, May
20th, 2011
Rock on the Alabama Gulf Coast with Foo Fighters,
The Black Keys, the Flaming Lips, Cee Lo Green and more. What a
better way to support this region after the Oil Spill!
Memorial
Day
Monday,
May 30th, 2011

|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
|
|
|