TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.
8 Issue 11, November 1st, 2011
Send
comments and suggestions or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
QUOTE
OF THE MONTH:
"In the full commission firms in this country, the typical financial
consultant covers 400-500 accounts. They get paid on the ones
that have the greatest assets. They realistically can't get to
the majority of their client base."
Joe Moglia
Non-executive Chairman of TD AMERITRADE
President and head coach, UFL's Omaha Nighthawks
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Welcome
to the Machine: High-Frequency Trading Domination.
by
Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist,
Charles Schwab &
Co., Inc.
October 17,
2011
 |
| Liz Ann
Sonders. |
Key
Points
- Market volatility
has spiked, starting with 2010's flash crash and culminating
in this year's wild August, bringing asset-class correlations
up with it.
- High-frequency
trading and the use of leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
are the primary culprits, but the impact isn't all bad.
- What are
regulators doing and saying about the phenomenon?
The Flash Crash
of 2010. The wild week in August when Standard & Poor's downgrade
of US debt hit. Triple-digit last-hour moves becoming the norm.
Turbocharged high-frequency trading firms are in the crosshairs
of investors and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But
are they really to blame? Over the past couple of months, it's become
apparent that this new type of institutional trading is a big concern
of individual investors—and it's a hot topic at client events at
which I've spoken, so here's my take:
HFT
defined
High
frequency trading (HFT) is a program-trading platform that uses
high-speed and ultra-powerful computers to transact a large number
of trades at very fast speeds. HFT uses complex algorithms to analyze
multiple markets and execute orders based on market conditions.
Trading speeds
are measured in milliseconds (thousandths of a second), and even
more recently in microseconds (millionths of a second) and nanoseconds
(billionths of a second). The twinkle in technologists' eyes is
picoseconds (trillionths of a second) in a "race to zero." The goal,
of course, is to make a (typically) small profit on each trade.
HFT firms are
usually trading their own capital and rarely hold positions overnight.
Some try to add "alpha" (outperformance relative to a benchmark)
by using unique trading strategies, while others are more passive—often
just trading the spread between a bid and an offer price.
Dominating
trading volume…
According
to several sources, including TABB Group, Aite Group and Thomson
Reuters, HFT now accounts for between 55-75% of trading volume on
average, with some days even higher. You probably remember the second
week in August when the market had one of its wildest rides in history.
I certainly remember, as I was on a vacation that turned into a
non-vacation.
…and elevating
volatility
On
August 8, the Monday after S&P downgraded US debt, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell by 635 points. Volume on the New York Stock
Exchange was the fourth highest on record. TABB estimates record
profits of $60 million that day for HFT firms. The bottom line is
that any time trading firms are making millions while the majority
of investors are either getting killed or simply watching market
action with horror, it's going to generate attention.
Pros
and cons
The
proponents for HFT claim that it brings more liquidity to the market
while keeping transaction costs low via narrowing bid-ask spreads,
and a recent study by the Capital Markets Cooperative Research Centre
of Australia supports that view. But there are plenty of studies
that refute the aforementioned benign characterization of HFT.
One such study
was completed last November by Yale Professor X. Frank Zhang, who
found that "HFT is positively correlated with stock price volatility"
and that it's "especially strong for the top 3,000 stocks in market
capitalization and stocks with high institutional holdings." Zhang's
most condemning find is that "the positive correlation between HFT
and volatility is also stronger during periods of high market uncertainty."
You can see
the latest increase in volatility in the chart below.
Volatility
Elevated

Source:
FactSet, as of October 14, 2011.
You can also
see the unprecedented increase in asset class correlations, for
which there's a longer history than volatility, in the chart below.
Correlation
Elevated

Source:
The Leuthold Group, as of September 30, 2011. Average 60-month correlation
of monthly changes in S&P 500 with monthly changes in: Morgan
Stanley EAFE, Gold, CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Raw Industrials,
10-Year Treasury, one-Year Treasury-Bill Rate, Broad Foreign Currency
Index.
Volatility
and correlation are related
In
times of high market volatility, stock movements tend to be more
correlated and the link has grown increasingly strong since the
mid-2000s. That was when regulatory reform encouraged financial
exchanges to switch from floor-based trading to electronic trading.
Two things
have happened since then that are coincident with the emergence
of trading-platform fragmentation and HFT. First, as noted, volatility
and correlations have both been higher. Second, the slope of the
volatility/correlation curve is steeper, meaning that a rise in
volatility today has a more pronounced impact on correlations than
in the past.
HFT seems to
have reduced bid-ask spreads (and thus transaction costs) in less-volatile
times, making markets work more smoothly. But it appears to have
done the opposite in more-volatile times, adding to market stress
and amplifying volatility.
Diversification
is dead …
This
increase in correlations is throwing for a loop the notion of diversification
in investors' portfolios as a way to minimize risk in volatile markets.
If all asset classes are moving in tandem, the power of diversification
is lost. This is the reason for the now-popular characterization
of market action over the past several years as "risk-on/risk-off"
trading, and HFT has undoubtedly been a factor in this phenomenon.
…long live
diversification!
I'm
often asked about this relatively new highly correlated market and
whether it's a fixture of the future or a fluke of the unique environment
we've been in since the financial crisis erupted three years ago.
I lean toward the latter view and still believe that investing based
on longer-term fundamentals will still be rewarded, and that diversification
is not dead.
One of the
things that high correlations do bring is the opportunity to find
mispricings amid coordinated movements. It's simply the case that
the fundamentals are very different among the riskier asset classes,
and within asset classes among individual securities. When everything's
moving in tandem, investors can look for securities, industries,
sectors or asset classes whose movements aren't justified by underlying
fundamentals. It may not be a strategy with an immediate reward,
but should serve investors well in the longer term.
HFT
and ETFs
The
other facet of HFT dominance is its use of certain vehicles, notably
ETFs. I'm a regular reader of TheStreet.com articles written about
or by Doug Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management.
He opined recently on HFT firms' use of "leveraged" ETFs in particular,
and it caught the attention of my friend Andrew Ross Sorkin, who
penned an article on the subject in The New York Times.
Leveraged ETFs
give investors the opportunity to bet on a basket of stocks, commodities
or an overall index and have become very popular vehicles for traders
generally and HFT firms in particular. Their attractiveness to HFT
users comes from the fact that investors can bet long or short and
leverage the bet, while also moving in and out during the trading
day to lock in gains (or limit losses, which can be substantial).
There are also "inverse leveraged" ETFs that go up when the price
of the basket of goods goes down and vice versa.
Doug Kass calls
these leveraged ETFs the "new weapons of mass destruction" as they've
"turned the market into a casino on steroids." Leveraged ETFs have
to rebalance their holdings each day to remain properly weighted,
and they do so by buying and selling millions of shares within minutes.
If a leveraged ETF made money that day, it has to reinvest the proceeds
and leverage them again to remain balanced. This helps to explain
many of the very wild, very large late-day swings we've seen in
the market.
The view that
HFT firms and their use of leveraged ETFs have wreaked havoc on
markets has not gone unchallenged, though. William Trainor, a professor
at East Tennessee State University, studied market volatility at
the beginning and end of market days and concluded that ETF rebalancing
had little to do with it. But Andrew Ross-Sorkin did his own (informal)
poll of fund managers and virtually all agreed with the Kass view
about both leveraged ETFs and the magnification of their impact
from the use by HFT firms.
SEC
et al. taking a look
In
the meantime, I'm often asked whether there's any official scrutiny
of the practices of HFT firms. In fact, US and European Union (EU)
securities regulators are looking into whether ETFs and their use
by HFT firms amplified August's wild swings in the market.
SEC officials
are honing in on leveraged and inverse ETFs specifically, part of
a broader look by regulators into exotic trading vehicles and HFT.
In early September, prompted by August's market action, the SEC
voted to open up a public dialogue about the use of derivatives
by mutual funds and ETFs, among other things. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average swung by at least 400 points on four consecutive days that
month for the first time in its 115-year history. And as previously
noted, many HFT firms posted huge profits during that volatile time.
Expect to hear much more in the coming months from the SEC.
Across the
pond, the EU is considering listing "specific examples of strategies
using algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading" that should
be banned outright and punished by regulators as market manipulation.
Layering,
stuffing and spoofing
The
Brussels-based commission is targeting "layering," in which traders
place large orders they have no intention of putting through, and
"quote stuffing," in which investors seek an advantage by delaying
data feeds. "Spoofing," in which market participants try to trick
other computers into making decisions that can be exploited for
profit, would also be banned.
Steps are already
being taken to stem abuses. Regulators in the United States and
the EU have recently fined traders for using computers to gain advantage
over slower investors/traders by illegally manipulating prices.
They're also weighing new rules for HFT, with an international regulatory
body to make recommendations to global leaders over the next few
weeks. Even the HFT industry itself is cooperating, believing that
although the majority of HFT is legitimate and lowers costs, it's
in favor of policing the market to quell manipulation and support
market stability.
The hoped-for
benefit of this increased scrutiny and action is confidence among
traditional investors in markets and the belief that we can all
again play on a relatively level playing field.
Important
Disclosures
Investors
should carefully consider information contained in the prospectus,
including investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. You
can request a prospectus by calling Schwab at 800-435-4000. Please
read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Some specialized
exchange-traded funds can be subject to additional market risks.
Investment returns will fluctuate and are subject to market volatility,
so that an investor's shares, when redeemed or sold, may be worth
more or less than their original cost.
Leveraged
ETFs seek to provide a multiple of the investment returns of a given
index or benchmark on a daily basis. Inverse ETFs seek to provide
the opposite of the investment returns, also daily, of a given index
or benchmark, either in whole or by multiples. Due to the effects
of compounding, aggressive techniques, and possible correlation
errors, leveraged and inverse ETFs may experience greater losses
than one would ordinarily expect. Compounding can also cause a widening
differential between the performances of an ETF and its underlying
index or benchmark, so that returns over periods longer than one
day can differ in amount and direction from the target return of
the same period. Consequently, these ETFs may experience losses
even in situations where the underlying index or benchmark has performed
as hoped. Aggressive investment techniques such as futures, forward
contracts, swap agreements, derivatives, options, can increase ETF
volatility and decrease performance. Investors holding these ETFs
should therefore monitor their positions as frequently as daily.
Diversification
strategies do not assure a profit and do not protect against losses
in declining markets.
The information
provided here is for general informational purposes only and should
not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized
investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may
not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment
strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any
investment decision.
All expressions
of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting
market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers
is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However,
its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
Examples
provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to
be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.
|
|
Oil
is Killing Economic Growth. Op-Ed.
by
Natalie Pace.
6
ways the oil economy is draining the U.S. dry. Or how to win an
argument with a petrol-loving Conservative.
One
of the largest drains on the GDP growth in the U.S. is the amount
of oil and petrol that we import. Each month, the drain equals $12
billion or more in a U.S. trade deficit to OPEC. With the rapid
gentrification of the world's largest populations -- China and India
-- and an already gluttonous worldwide appetite for the crude, the
scales of supply and demand will surely tip into ever more obese
pricing -- no matter how fast we tap reserves a mile beneath the
ocean floor in the Gulf. That's a recipe for keeping our enemies
rich, and US at their mercy.
And imports
are not the only way that oil is killing economic growth. We pay
a very high price in reduced consumer and business spending, soldiers'
lives and health care as a result of this liquid gold, too, which
I'll outline in greater detail below.
Conservatives
have gathered around the firing words of exploration, energy independence
(falsely claiming we can produce enough to sate our thirst) and
Solyndra to kill clean energy funding and loan programs and expand
drilling domestically. However, just how reasonable is the idea
that, in the words of one Wall Street banker, "The most productive
new energy technology is related to developing old energy sources?"
Whether you
consider future sales, American lives, the planet, GDP growth, the
joy of swimming on white sandy beaches, or just the thrill of eating
out on occasion, an investment in clean energy trumps old technology
hands down. All of the capital and jobs needed to drill for more
oil are better spent developing alternative fuels and energy, which
have the potential, like Internet technology did before it, to put
America on top of the world again, in addition to powering our sophisticated
lives. And here's why...
6
Ways the Oil Economy is Draining the U.S. Dry
- Consumer
Spending
- Imports
Kill GDP Growth
- Soldier's
Lives
- Health
Care Costs
- Military
Operations
- The BP
Oil Spill
With
details and data...
- Consumer
Spending - My
dad went to riding a bike when gasoline prices spiked this year.
He couldn't afford to gas up his fuel-efficient car that gets
almost 30 miles to the gallon. What did you cut out of the budget?
When consumers can't buy, businesses suffer. And that stalls the
economy.
- Imports
Kill GDP Growth - Imports
are subtracted from exports to determine GDP growth. OPEC is the
#2 line item expense for the U.S., with a current monthly trade
deficit of over $12 billion -- $13 billion in August (source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis). If every American drove a Tesla
(or other electric vehicle) and powered it with sunlight, this
imbalance shifts overnight...
- Soldier's
Lives - According
to Thomas
Hicks, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for
the U.S. Navy, who spoke to me at the Clinton
Global Initiative in September, "For every 50 fuel
convoys, we have one American killed or wounded. For us, that's
just too high a price to pay for fuel." Bringing fuel into "the
theatre" means sending regular convoys from Pakistani ports through
insurgents and IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) to Afghanistan.
You can
see my complete interview with Thomas Hicks on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDotCom.
- Health
Care Costs - War-related
death and injury cost a lot. The Congressional Budget Office estimates
that "the total real resources (in 2010 dollars) necessary to
provide health care services to all veterans who seek treatment
at VA would range from $69 billion to $85 billion in 2020, representing
cumulative increases of roughly 45 percent to 75 percent
since 2010." Though there is a "fast-growing share of enrollments"
in the VA program from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the CBO
is not predicting that these veterans will use the service because
" they are younger and healthier than other veterans served by
VA." Hmmm... Not unless we stop trucking fuel into the theater...
- Military
Operations - The
spike in oil prices during the Arab Spring sank the average American's
budget, but it had a similar affect on our defense budgets (and
any business involved in transportation as well). Based on June
oil prices, fuel costs will increase by a billion dollars to the
Navy this year, according to Hicks. "That impacts our flying hours,
our steaming hours, our ability to sail our ships and to fly our
planes," Hicks warns, which is why the Navy is aggressive about
developing and adopting alternative fuels and energy.
You can
learn more about the Navy's five energy goals in my article,
"The
High Cost of Gas in Lives," from the October 2011 ezine,
volume 8, issue 10.
- The BP
Oil Spill - BP
took $40 billion in losses in 2010 with respect to the Gulf of
Mexico spill -- something only a $135 billion company can survive.
Many of the small businesses in the Gulf didn't make it. And although
President Obama and our First Lady made it a point of eating oysters,
crawdads, trout and shrimp on December 1, 2010, during "America’s
Night Out for Gulf Seafood," to highlight just how safe and
delicious Gulf seafood still is, sales of food from that region
are still depressed. The cost to wildlife, vegetation, plankton
and other essential elements of our life/food cycle may never
be known. However, we do know that the toxicity of oil makes gambling
with our oceans a high-risk venture.
Clean
or Dirty: Innovation or Degradation
As
Paul Woods, the managing director of Summit Wealth Management says,
"Solar panels are becoming so cheap that they're close to making
economic sense without subsidies for people who live in sunny places."
The 100% electric Tesla S sedan, when you consider the gas savings,
is cheaper than the Chevy Volt and every other luxury sedan in production.
So, the tipping point of powering your electric car with sunshine
is within reach. Now is the time to double down on the future, and
lead the world into a cleaner energy grid, and reap the benefits
of selling the best clean energy products to other countries.
The idea of
energy independence that is rooted in oil and dirty energy sources
is a pie-in-the-sky dream, cooked up by oil cronies who want to
keep the world's richest companies in power. As long as we have
a gas guzzling addiction, oil-rich countries, like Libya and Iran,
will have US by the b@!!$. Conservatives in Hummers and SUVs are
killing jobs, economic growth, military operations, et al. far more
than tree-huggers driving Smart Cars.
Innovation
is just as powerful as the world's most expensive addiction -- oil.
Apple has been trading places with Exxon Mobil all year for the
world's most valuable company by market capitalization, with current
market caps of $369 billion each (tied for first). Sales of Apple
products topped $108 billion this year.
The next time
someone tries to sell you into the idea that drilling deeper domestically
for oil is the best solution, remind them that the same capital
and human capital push needed to drill and refine oil and gas could
be spent developing the clean energies that will power our world
into tomorrow. If we're drilling a mile beneath the gulf for oil
with untested equipment, you have to admit we're getting a little
desperate, especially considering that the main ingredient for solar
energy (which can power electric cars) is sand.
Gasoline powered
cars are dinosaurs. Clean energy investments today are as forward-thinking
as developing an iMusic platform and personal iPods were when Napster
was giving away songs for free -- or iPhones before people could
dream of touch screen smart applications. Real wealth is always
found in the dreams of tomorrow. So, who will be the next Steve
Jobs? Elon Musk?
Hammer the
point home with your conservative friends. Turn on the LED lights
in their thinking... And fuel US to stay on the right track for
energy independence -- with electric vehicles, solar, wind, geothermal,
LEDs and other clean technologies.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two
million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow
her on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
|
|
 |
| The 100%
Electric Tesla S Sedan. |
Tesla.
The Best Car on the Road.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
a Car
Stock Report Card.
There are only
a few heart-stopping thrills in this life, and the Tesla Roadster
is definitely one of them. It's hard to describe 0-60 in 3.9 seconds,
but WSJ Magazine does a good job with the word "neck-snapping."
During my test drive (with a race car salesman), it was impossible
to zing through the Sunset Boulevard S curves without giggling with
delight. And that is before you consider that this car is 100% electric
and can be powered by sunlight.
So, can Tesla
translate the wisdom of the Roadster into making the Tesla S sedan
the most desirable luxury sedan in the world? The test drives are
in, and it appears so. After test driving the S sedan, Kim Reynolds
of Motor Trend wrote simply, "This is it." Reuters call the
S sedan, "the must-have Apple of electric cars." And WSJ Magazine
just named Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Innovator of the Year in Technology.
Tesla cars are clean, mean, green and hot enough to make you want
a cigarette after (even if you don't smoke).
How
does Tesla size up to the competition?
The
Tesla S sedan will be roomier, sexier and have more power and capacity
than any other electric car. The Fisker Karma has far less space
and costs almost twice as much as the Tesla S sedan (at around $100,000).
The Karma has the added benefit of being a hybrid with "extended
range" in case you really have to take that 500-mile road trip in
your electric car, however the dual capacity takes its toll on space.
Kim Reynolds of Motor Trend, who is one of the few people
to have driven both the Karma and the Tesla S sedan wrote, "The
most startling difference between them is space efficiency... There's
not only room for just two in back [in the Fisker Karma], but I'd
advise them to be 12 years old. Its trunk? Don't play golf."
The Nissan
Leaf suffers from small range syndrome -- just 75 miles. Paul Woods,
managing director at Summit Wealth Management, says that driving
the Leaf felt like " driving a go kart." Hardly a thrill ride...
The Chevy Volt
was Motor Trend's 2011 Car of the Year, but customers weren't
as enamored. Sales over the summer were embarrassing; with reports
of sales in July of just 125 cars. GM reported that October deliveries
of the Volt were 1100 -- the best month to date, but Volt sales
are still under 5,000 for the year. (General Motors did not respond
with an exact sales number.) What's the problem? The Chevy Volt
extends your driving range with its hybrid capacity, but with a
price tag of $42,549, many customers are opting to wait for the
better looking, better performing Tesla S sedan.
More than 6,500
Tesla Model S sedans have already been reserved. That exceeds the
2012 production of 5,000 S sedans -- meaning the car is sold out
for 2012. Pre-orders and positive press position Tesla well for
the planned 20,000 annual production of sedans by 2013. Model S
will start delivering in mid-2012.
Tesla also
partners with Daimler and Toyota to supply the electric power trains
for the Daimler Smart ForTwo, the Mercedes Benz A-Class and an all-electric
version of the Rav4. The Tesla executive team includes experienced
talent from Ford, General Motors, Apple, Toyota, Virgin America,
the State Dept., Google and Sony.
There is a
turn off on this switch from gas guzzler to electric power. The
problem with all things green is that the world is still embroiled
in a recession (though the economists don't call it that) and without
a steady stream of funding, it will be very difficult for any new
technology to break out into the mainstream. Elon Musk projects
that Tesla will be cash positive by 2013, and a Tesla spokesperson
claims that Tesla has all the funding needed to deliver the Model
S sedan. However, it is rare for new production facilities and projects
to get all of the safety and permit approvals in a timely manner,
which is needed to meet their deadlines. And delays add costs...
At a time when the politicians still need to cut two trillion (at
least) from the budget deficit and the Republicans have a full court
press to kill the Alternative Technology Vehicles Manufacturing
loan program ...
So, the Tesla
cars, the best cars on the road, are without a doubt the most exciting
innovations to hit Earth since Al Gore invented the Internet. The
only question is, "Will lack of funding pull the plug on electric
in 2012?" If yes, you'll be glad you stayed away from this high-risk
investment. If no, then you just took ownership in the next great
thing.
I added
Tesla Motors to the Hot List on October 1, 2011, when it was trading
for $23.73/share.
Full Disclosure:
I do not own shares in any publicly traded company mentioned in
this article -- yet.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two
million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow
her on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Debt
& Taxes.
by
Paul Woods.
 |
| Paul Woods. |
If you have
a job in the private sector, one way to understand the difference
between the people you work for and government would be to go to
your boss and demand a raise because you’ve spent too much money.
Tell your boss that living within your means is too difficult and
giving you more money would be a balanced solution to your problem.
If Western style democracies have an Achilles heel, it’s that this
approach works most of the time for their politicians. Voters will
usually approve a tax if they think someone else will pay it and
they’ll get something in return. Unfortunately, giving compulsive
spenders more money and hoping they’ll finally restrain themselves
rarely works.
It’s well documented
that more public debt equals less economic growth.
Estimated
Annual Real GDP Growth 2011-2016 (75 countries)

Source:
International Monetary Fund, CIA World Factbook, Heritage Foundation
It’s well documented
that more public debt equals less economic growth.
While it’s
also no secret that the private sector uses capital more efficiently
than the public sector, the impact of transferring resources from
the private sector to the government through higher taxes doesn’t
get much coverage. That made us curious, so we looked at data for
75 countries. What jumped out is the inverse correlation between
debt & taxes and economic growth. In this case, less is definitely
more.
According to
IMF estimates, the next five years will show a dramatic difference
in economic growth between countries that limit borrowing and control
taxes versus those that don’t. Low debt countries are expected to
show 39% more annual economic growth. However, for low tax countries,
the difference is a staggering 124% more economic growth. When choosing
where to invest in equities and fixed income outside the United
States, both of these factors should be major considerations.
In the third
quarter of 2011, slowing growth spooked investors and produced a
sea of red. This environment typically produces a flight to large
companies, but value also continued to underperform because of its
exposure to financials. For reference, here’s the stock market segment
scorecard:
|
Size/Style
|
Symbol
|
6/30/11
|
9/30/11
|
%
Change
|
|
All Cap
Growth
|
RAG
|
500.03
|
428.90
|
-14.23%
|
|
All Cap
|
RUA
|
790.00
|
665.97
|
-15.70%
|
|
All Cap
Value
|
RAV
|
887.82
|
835.56
|
-17.15%
|
|
Large
Cap Growth
|
RLG
|
609.52
|
527.38
|
-12.73%
|
|
Large
Cap
|
RUI
|
734.48
|
623.45
|
-14.74%
|
|
Large
Cap Value
|
RLV
|
669.48
|
557.50
|
-16.76%
|
|
MidCapValue
|
RMV
|
,1093.14
|
886.01
|
-18.28%
|
|
MidCap
|
RMC
|
1,080.78
|
872.87
|
-18.39%
|
|
MidCapGrowth
|
RDG
|
492.01
|
395.93
|
-18.49%
|
|
Small
Cap Value
|
RUJ
|
1,087.82
|
849.47
|
-21.46%
|
|
Small
Cap
|
RUT
|
827.43
|
64.16
|
-21.49%
|
|
Small
Cap Growth
|
RUO
|
477.13
|
370.33
|
-21.52%
|
Source:
Telmet Orion
Anything likely
to be hurt by a slowing economy got pounded while industries with
less exposure to the economy were the place to be. For reference,
here’s the stock market index and industry group scorecard for the
third quarter:
|
Industry
|
Symbol
|
6/30/11
|
9/30/11
|
%
Change
|
|
DJ 30
Industrials
|
INDU
|
12,414.34
|
10,913.38
|
-12.09%
|
|
NASDAQ
Composite
|
COMPN
|
2,773.52
|
2,415.40
|
-12.95%
|
|
S&P
500 Index
|
SPX
|
1,320.64
|
1,131.42
|
-14.33%
|
|
EFAE
Index
|
EFA
|
60.14
|
47.78
|
20.55%
|
|
Emerging
Markets
|
MXEF
|
1,132.79
|
894.48
|
21.04%
|
|
Utilies
|
IXU
|
338.42
|
339.79
|
0.40%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
S30
|
322.66
|
306.71
|
-4.94%
|
|
Technology
|
IXT
|
257.78
|
236.54
|
-8.24%
|
|
Health
Care
|
HCX
|
410.93
|
367.73
|
-10.51%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
S25
|
317.89
|
275.53
|
-13.33%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
S2020
|
150.88
|
128.84
|
-14.61%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
825.01
|
698.52
|
-15.33%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
S2010
|
347.16
|
270.09
|
-22.20%
|
|
Energy
|
IXE
|
756.37
|
587.26
|
-22.36%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
5,234.82
|
4,189.37
|
-22.76%
|
|
Financials
|
S40
|
206.87
|
159.05
|
-23.12%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
1,460.63
|
1,102.57
|
-24.51%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
IXB
|
414.97
|
309.18
|
-25.49%
|
Source:
Telmet Orion
Bond investors
began discounting the next recession as Treasury yields slipped
to lows not seen in most lifetimes. The never-ending soap opera
in Europe produced a flight to what’s perceived as a safe haven.
For now, that’s the U.S. in spite of its recent credit downgrade.
For bond investors looking for old-fashioned things like a real
return on their money, there were fewer choices. However, the
strong dollar
made foreign bonds look more attractive and there continues to be
some value in good quality corporate debt.
|
Current
Yield
|
6/30/11
|
9/30/11
|
%
Change
|
|
90 day
Treasury Bills
|
0.03%
|
0.02%
|
-33.33%
|
|
5 Year
Treasury Notes
|
1.76%
|
0.98%
|
-44.32%
|
|
10 Year
Treasury Notes
|
3.18%
|
1.99%
|
-37.42%
|
Source:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Internationally,
Greece continued to look like a black hole as European bankers searched
for more creative ways to pretend the debt they’ve holding is still
worth par while also lobbying to make taxpayers take this inevitable
hit. Whether this ends by Greece deciding the cost of remaining
in the EU is too high or by taxpayers in Germany rioting at the
cost of bailing out fools is too close to call.
However, Greece
isn’t the only problem. Countries with healthy economies can grow
their way out of debt problems. However, Europe’s confiscatory taxes
make it unlikely their economies will produce enough economic growth
and Greece probably won’t be the only country unable to pay its
debts. With growth forecasts in the U.S. also going south, Asia
remains the best hope for the world’s economy.
During the
third quarter, we were treated to the kind of jobs plan that explains
why our economy is slipping back into a recession. It consisted
of a permanent tax on those who didn’t vote for the right party
to fund temporary benefits for those who did. Strangely enough,
the main problems that keep unemployment high weren’t addressed.
The cost of benefits for full time employees keeps exploding while
U.S. businesses still pay one of the highest corporate tax rates
in the world. It also doesn’t help that the most recent financial
reforms made it more difficult for small businesses to get loans.
Until these issues are dealt with, high unemployment will become
a permanent feature of the U.S. economy.
The stock market
appears to be in the process of coming to grips with a new reality
that includes the likelihood that future economic growth expectations
for the U.S. are too optimistic. As a result, stock market valuations
are in the process of being adjusted downward and the current unappetizing
combination of high volatility and low returns makes the stock market
look like a trip to Las Vegas.
Right now,
the major appeal for stocks is the certainty of low returns in the
alternatives.
Best regards,
Paul A. Woods
About
Paul Woods
Paul
is a Managing Director in the Beverly Hills office of Summit
Wealth Management.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Summit
Wealth Management, Inc. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Companies
in Bankruptcy Rarely Make Blockbuster Investments.
A
FINRA.org
Investor Alert.
FINRA
is issuing this Alert because we believe that there may be investor
confusion in the market regarding the bankruptcy of Blockbuster,
Inc., (BLOAQ, BLOBQ) and that some stock promoters may be trying
to exploit that confusion.
Blockbuster
is a former NYSE-listed company that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
on September 23, 2010. In April 2011, almost all of Blockbuster's
assets, including the "Blockbuster'' trade name, were acquired by
DISH Network Corp. (Nasdaq: "DISH"). The remaining entity changed
its name to BB Liquidating, Inc. According to multiple public disclosures,
BB Liquidating, Inc. has no further business operations or assets,
although its shares still trade under the BLOAQ and BLOBQ symbols.
The SEC
temporarily suspended trading in BLOAQ on September 29, because
of "a lack of current and accurate information concerning the
company’s securities due to assertions in third-party press releases
to investors concerning, among other things, the company's current
financial condition and business prospects." For instance, one report
stated that "Blockbuster is Back From the Doldrums" and "is now
becoming a promising comeback story." Another website described
BLOAQ as a " ... global media entertainment provider, which exited
Chapter 11 protection earlier this year…"
In fact, the
company has not exited bankruptcy, and the company itself stated
in a recent SEC filing that even though its shares continue to be
quoted on the Pink Sheets, they may have "no value." In
another recent filing, the company stated that there are "no
further business operations nor assets to liquidate" and noted
any financial success associated with the company that acquired
the Blockbuster brand would have "no impact" on the value
of the BLOAQ and BLOBQ shares.
FINRA cautions
investors that bankrupt companies can be targets of online stock
tips that can be confusing, inaccurate, misleading and in some cases
fraudulent. Furthermore, FINRA reminds investors that holding shares
of any company involved in bankruptcy, or buying shares in a bankrupt
company in the hope that those shares will surge in value down the
road, are highly risky courses of action and can lead to financial
loss.
For additional
information see FINRA’s Investor Alert, Investing
in a Bankrupt Company: a High Risk Venture.
About
FINRA
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest
independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in
the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage
firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately 643,000 registered
securities representatives.
FINRA believes
investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the
media and public forums, we help investors build their financial
knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand
the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.
.
|
|
Lead
Bullets.
by
Ben Horowitz.
Yet our
best trained, best educated, best equipped, best prepared troops
refuse to fight. As a matter of fact, it’s safe to say that they
would rather switch than fight.
—Public Enemy (sampled from Thomas Todd), Fight the Power
Artist:
Public Enemy
Track: Fight the Power
Album: Fear of a Black Planet
Released: 1990
Label: Def Jam, Columbia
 |
| Ben Horowitz. |
Early in my
tenure as product manager for the web servers at Netscape, we faced
a terrible crisis. We just got our hands on Microsoft’s new web
server, Internet Information Server (IIS), and benchmarked against
our product. Microsoft’s IIS had every feature that we had, was
five times faster and we knew that they were going to give it away
for free. This might not sound so bad, but we had just gone public
three months earlier with a story to Wall Street that said, "Don’t
worry about Microsoft giving away the browser because we will make
money selling servers." Oh snap.
I immediately
went to work trying to move the playing field and pivot the server
product line to something that we could sell for money. The late,
great Mike Homer and I worked furiously on a set of partnerships
and acquisitions that would broaden the product line and surround
the web server with enough functionality that we would be able survive
the attack.
As I excitedly
reviewed the plan with my engineering counterpart, Bill Turpin,
he looked at me as though I was a little kid who had much to learn.
Bill was a long-time veteran of battling Microsoft from his time
at Borland and understood what I was trying to do, but remained
unconvinced. He said: "Ben, those silver bullets that you and
Mike are looking for are fine and good, but our web server is five
times slower. There is no silver bullet that’s going to fix that.
No, we are going to have to use a lot of lead bullets." Oh
snap.
As a result
of Bill’s words, we focused our engineering team on fixing the performance
issues while working the other things in the background. We eventually
beat Microsoft’s performance and grew the server line to become
a $400M business and we would never have done it without those lead
bullets. I carried that lesson with me for many years.
Six years later,
when I was CEO of Opsware, our toughest competitor Bladelogic started
to consistently beat us in large deals. We were a public company
and the losses were all too visible. To make matters worse, we needed
to win those deals in order to beat the Wall Street projections,
so the company felt tremendous pressure. Many of the smartest people
in my company came to me with ideas for avoiding the battle:
- "Let’s
build a light-weight version of the product and go down market."
- "Let’s
acquire a company with a simpler architecture."
- "Let’s
focus on service providers."
The issue with
their ideas was that we weren’t facing a market problem. The customers
were buying; they just weren’t buying our product. This was not
a time to pivot. So I said the same thing to every one of them:
"There are no silver bullets for this, only lead bullets."
They did not want to hear that, but it made things clear: we had
to build a better product. There was no other way out. No window,
no hole, no escape hatch, no backdoor. We had to go through the
front door and deal with the big, ugly guy blocking it. Lead bullets.
After nine
months of hard work on an extremely rugged product cycle, we regained
our product lead and eventually built a company that was worth $1.6B.
Without the lead bullets, I suspect we would have ended at about
1/10th that value.
There may be
nothing scarier in business than facing an existential threat. So
scary that many in the organization will do anything to avoid it.
They will look for any alternative, any way out, any excuse not
to live or die in a single battle. I see this often in start up
pitches. The conversations go something like this:
Entrepreneur:
"We have the best product in the market by far. All the customers
love it and prefer it to competitor X."
Me: "Why does competitor X have five times your revenue?"
Entrepreneur: "We are using partners and OEMs, because
we can’t build a direct channel like competitor X."
Me: "Why not? If you have the better product, why not
knuckle up and go to war?"
Entrepreneur: "Ummm."
Me: "Stop looking for the silver bullet."
There comes
a time in every company’s life where it must fight for its life.
If you find yourself running when you should be fighting, you need
to ask yourself: "If our company isn’t good enough to win,
then do we need to exist at all?"
About
Ben Horowitz
Ben Horowitz
is the cofounder and General Partner (along with Marc
Andreessen) of the venture capital firm Andreessen
Horowitz based in Menlo Park, California. Ben was CEO
of LoudCloud (a cloud service provider), which became Opsware, and
then sold to Hewlett-Packard for $1.6 billion.
|
|
 |
Lilian
Kathiri
Photo by: Linda Lockhart |
Worth
More Than a Cow.
by
Natalie Pace.
Advancing
Women's Rights in the Developing World.
Learn
how corporations, policymakers, government leaders and motivated
young women are collaborating to reduce violence and promote equality
for women in developing countries.
I've
heard a lot of horror stories from women in the U.S. If you lived
in 1919, you couldn't vote. In the 1970s, you would never be offered
a sports scholarship to attend college, even if you were Billie
Jean King. And, although she ended up joining the most exclusive
law firm in the world -- the U.S. Supreme Court -- Sandra Day O'Connor
was only offered secretarial positions after graduating at the top
of her class at Stanford Law. However, none of these gifted women
were ever at risk of being sold for a cow, as routinely happens
to young girls in Kenya.
At
the Clinton Global Initiative earlier this year, Reeta Roy, the
president and CEO of the MasterCard
Foundation, described a situation that she had come
across in her travels in Africa to me. A young African girl was
being sold by her parents to a much older man, who already had three
wives. According to Reeta, this young woman did something extraordinary.
She simply said, "No."
 |
Reeta
Roy
President and CEO, The MasterCard Foundation
Photo: Clinton Global Initiative |
Armed
with a scholarship from CAMFED,
rather than becoming a teen mother, this young girl completed middle
school. She is now getting her degree in technology, while supporting
her three younger sisters on their quest for a career and financial
independence, as well.
CAMFED
is just one organization in Africa that is providing the scholarships
and schooling that young women need to make a better life for themselves
and their communities. The Global
Give Back Circle is another. GGBC provides the mentors,
IT training and funding for Kenyan girls to complete high school
and go on to college. GGBC has attracted marquise partners like
Microsoft, MasterCard Foundation and USAID, among others. And Reeta
Roy is one of the many VIP women who give personally of their time
to mentor a young Kenyan protégée one-on-one.
 |
Reeta
Roy, president and CEO, MasterCard Foundation with Lilian Kathiri,
member of the Global Give Back Circle
Photo by Linda Lockhart |
Reeta
Roy has been through a lot with her GGBC mentee, Lilian Kathiri.
They've talked about everything from career, to boys, to dealing
with parents' expectations. However recently, they had cause for
both celebration and a larger calling. On October 18, 2011, Lilian
flew to Paris, France to represent the African Union at the Girls
20 Summit. Reeta Roy met her there. The two mixed in some delicious
downtime with a critically important mission: making sure that other
young women in the developing world are priced higher (and treated
with more dignity) than a cow.
 |
Lilian
Kathiri at the Girls 20 Summit in Paris, France.
Photo by: Linda Lockhart |
Lilian
was at the Girls 20 Summit to share her points of concern, which
are, primarily:
- Self-esteem
(for boys and girls)
- Safe,
basic primary education in disaster and conflict areas
- Financial
literacy
- Violence
Prevention
- Respect,
especially between adolescent boys and girls
- Fair and
adequate female representation in senior level positions of
business and government
- Ending
the practice of female genital mutilation and virginity testing
- Maternal
health and training rural health care workers
One
of the most important things discussed at the Girls 20 Summit was
the importance of involving the community in social change. Lilian
reports that this was a constant theme at the conference and something
she has witnessed in her own efforts. The Global Give Back Circle,
a US based nonprofit organization, partners with the Kenya Community
Development Foundation (KCDF) in order to best serve the GGBC students
who are on the ground in Kenya. Also, when Lilian was volunteering
time on the weekend to tutor school children, she enlisted the support
of the parents. Why is this so important? Lilian writes, "The parents
understood the essence of the program and therefore allowed their
children to attend sessions on Saturdays and did not instead see
it as time wasted... because on weekends children help parents in
family chores."
Lilian
reports that wife battery is still common in rural areas in Kenya
because "men still believe they have the right to punish their wives
by beating them." She is encouraged, however, that other men are
joining the cause for equality. Forest Whitaker was the keynote
speaker at the Girls 20 Summit. Kenya also has organizations like
Men for Gender Equality Now (MEGEN) that recognize the need for
men to participate in the fight to remove all forms of discrimination
that prevail against women.
Lilian
is studying medicine and aims to become a doctor. It seems like
a natural profession for a young girl who, at the age of 10, removed
jiggers from a local boy's leg, which made it possible for him to
walk freely again within a matter of days.
Of
course, all of this makes Reeta Roy a very, very proud mentor and
a very respected CEO, whose social investments in CAMFED and GGBC
are indeed transforming lives. Reeta and Lilian (and GGBC and CAMFED)
are co-creating a new world for African women, and this is possible
largely because of the Clinton
Global Initiative, according to Reeta Roy. Reeta praises
CGI, saying, " CGI is an extraordinary place that brings together
amazing people... people with dreams which have yet to be realized
and people who have the funding to make those dreams possible. It's
all about connections."
Visit
YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
to watch my complete interview with Reeta
Roy from September 21, 2011.
If
you'd like to be a part of the solution, it's easier than you know.
For just a small donation of money and a consistent donation of
time, you too can be a Global
Give Back Circle mentor. CAMFED
can use more pens, books, shoes and scholarships for their scholars
as well. Visit their websites to learn more.
About
Lilian Kithiri:
Lilian Kathiri
M’Nkubitu grew up in a rural village in Meru. Her
family resides in a typical rural homestead whereby several huts
are constructed for various functions. One is used for cooking in
a wood-burning pit. Another is where the girls sleep;
another is where the boys sleep. And the fourth hut is used as a
family gathering place where meals are shared.
Lilian
is the fourth born from a family of six children. Education
was always a priority in her family. She worked very
hard to earn a sponsorship to secondary school in Nairobi. She
was an A student. She is now in her first year as
a student at Egerton University, studying medicine and surgery.
For the past three years, she has been an active member of
the Global Give Back Circle. Lilian is a Butterfly in
the circle and responsible for meeting with private sector heads
and getting them to invest in girls!
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two
million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow
her on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
|
|
Designer
Sisters Rock the Red Carpet...
by Natalie
Pace.
..on
Jessica Alba and Anna Paquin and Win the 2011 Dorchester Collection
Fashion Prize.
Anndra Neen
wins the 2011 Dorchester Collection Fashion Prize. Sisters will
showcase their jewelry and accessories at Paris Fashion Week 2012
and the iconic Hôtel Plaza Athénée.
 |
|
Photo:
2011 Dorchester Collection Fashion Prize Grand Winners Phoebe
and Annette Stephens, creators of Anndra Neen
Photo
Credit: Dorchester Collection.
|
On October
29, 2011, the Dorchester Collection awarded their second annual
fashion prize to Anndra Neen at the "Pink Palace" Beverly Hills
Hotel. Anndra Neen is the label of sisters Phoebe and Annette Stephens,
who were born and raised in Mexico City, schooled at U.S. universities
and have art in their DNA. Their grandmother, Annette Nancarrow,
was a painter, sculptor and jewelry designer who was friends with
such legendary artists as Frieda Kahlo, Diego Rivera and Anais Nin.
What made the
sisters stand out among three other finalists? Consistent wow factor.
In a field of strong talent, including Giulietta by Sofia Sizzi,
Julian Louis and Siki Im, the sisters rocked the runway with eye-popping
originality in every piece. From the mesh metal suitcase, to steel
chokers and wrist armory, the effect of the metals and design is
a very seductive blend of strength, power and sensuality -- something
you could wear to a Wagner opera or on the red carpet -- as Jessica
Alba and Anna Paquin have both done. This is Warrior Goddess couture
at its finest.
 |
Anndra
Neen's New York Fashion Week "Trojan Horse" presentation.
Photo Credit: Anndra Neen |
The Dorchester
Collection pride themselves not just on the prize money -- $40,000
-- but also on the opportunity afforded to the winning designers.
Phoebe and Annette Stephens will showcase their Anndra Neen collection
during Paris Fashion Week in 2012 at Hôtel Plaza Athénée,
which is located in the heart of the Paris Haute Couture district.
Christian Dior considered Hôtel Plaza Athénée
his "second home" and named his Plaza and Athénée
suits after the hotel. No doubt the Dorchester Collection hopes
to launch Anndra Neen likewise into the eternal galaxy of fashion
stars.
You'll start
to see Anndra Neen's show-stopping jewelry and accessories in the
pages of Vogue and Vanity Fair and in the fashion
departments of high-end retail shops in 2012. And when you do, it
will be thanks to the Dorchester Collection, owners of Hotel Bel-Air,
the Beverly Hills Hotel and Hôtel Plaza Athénée,
to name a few.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two
million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow
her on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
|
|
 |
Ivan Vasiliev
The Greatest Dancer Alive |
Living
the Rich Life:
by Natalie
Pace.
The
Best of Ballet, Bel-Air and Puck.
5 Exclusive,
Limited Time Opportunities.
Recently, a
handful of once-in-a-lifetime opportunities have popped up -- in
Tinsel Town and New York City. Like a star's 15 minutes of fame,
each of these extraordinary experiences is fleeting. If you don't
seize the moment now, while you can, chances are that you'll be
watching the highlights on Internet TV instead of standing in the
spotlight of one of your finest real-life dreams...
- Wolfgang
Puck at Hotel Bel-Air. If you are not an A-lister, then
it is impossible to get a table at a premiere Wolfgang Puck restaurant,
and for good reason. As Wolfgang always says, "There is no substitute
for quality, passion and love," and that is exactly what you'll
experience -- always -- in his signature dining establishments.
However, the new Wolfgang Puck at Hotel Bel-Air restaurant caters
to Hotel Bel-Air guests, offering a rare opportunity to be the
first to sample Puck's delectable fare, when there will be an
opportunity to secure a table. (The restaurant opened to the public
on November 1, 2011.)
Wolfgang
Puck features California cuisine, infused with European and Mediterranean
influences. Puck's plates showcase fresh, locally grown produce,
all natural poultry, sustainable seafood and only meats that have
been raised humanely. (Sorry: no foie gras will be served.) As
just one example of Puck's creative flair, he has reinvented Eggs
Benedict. "The H.B.A. Benedict" is a rich combination of Kurobuta
Pork Cheeks, Buttermilk-White Cheddar Biscuits and Maple - Bacon
Hollandaise. The passion inspired by this breakfast can easily
be carried through the day with a trip to the Bel-Air La Prairie
spa, a walk around Swan Lake, or ...
The Wolfgang
Puck at Hotel Bel-Air restaurant offers a private dining room
that seats 14, if you have a special occasion to celebrate.
- Hotel
Bel-Air: Hip Serenity in Tinsel Town. Hotel Bel-Air
re-opened, after a
major renovation, on October 14, 2011. This legendary hotel, where
Marilyn Monroe shot her last photo session, retains all of the
canyon serenity that Hotel Bel-Air is legendary for, including
the famous Swan Lake and grotto. Interior designer Alexandra Champalimaud
has kept the vintage glam of the 30s, 40s and 50s, while spicing
up the décor with an effortless indoor/outdoor flow and
hip elegance.
Hotel Bel-Air
is an exquisite special occasion destination. Create an unforgettable
wedding for up to 180, where your vows are sealed outside by the
swans, and your Wolfgang Puck dinner is served in the ballroom.
Have an ultimate birthday or girls' escape in the La Prairie Spa
Enclave, where up to 10 can enjoy spa services, outdoor dining
and/or intimacy, in a relaxing and private setting. (One of my
most memorable birthday parties was an all girls' pajama party
with massages, Tarot, facials and Caipirinhas, something that
the Enclave could easily accommodate.)
Available
now through December 30, 2011, you can receive $200 dining credit,
daily breakfast for 2 and $100 spa credit when you book a suite
at Hotel Bel-Air (3-night minimum stay required). Other special
offers include a spa package, a romantic escape or a deluxe breakfast
getaway. These packages go a long way to making marquise luxury
almost affordable. (So splurge a little!)
- Kings
of the Dance.
Will American-born David Hallberg (Rapid City, South Dakota)
be the greatest ballet star since Nureyev? While time will tell
just how bright and far Hallberg's star shines, there is one thing
for sure. Flipping the tables on Rudolf Nureyev, who was the first
Russian ballet star to defect to the U.S. (in 1961), David Hallberg
is the first American ballet star to join the fabled Bolshoi Ballet.
Hallberg
began ballet at the age of 13, and won the Benois de la Danse
Award in 2010, at the age of 28. Hallberg will start at the
Bolshoi on Nov. 4 in Giselle and then in productions
of The Sleeping Beauty and Don Quixote. You can
see Hallberg perform with the American Ballet Theater (in NYC)
next May through July 2012. And Hallberg will star, with other
leading men of ballet, in The
Kings of the Dance in New York City, February 19-21,
2011.
On the
debut performance of the Kings of the Dance: Opus 3, at Segerstrom
Hall in Costa Mesa, California, I was surprised
to see the depth and breadth of talent in each of the Kings
of Dance. Ivan Vasiliev of the Bolshoi Ballet stole the show,
hands down, receiving a standing ovation after his solo that
wouldn't have stopped if he didn't (finally) just leave the
stage. Ivan's powerful leaps trump the true kings of dance (Nureyev
& Baryshnikov) and his artful passion and sex appeal will
surely grace the walls in posters and calendars of American
households soon (ok, at least mine). Another unexpected bonus
was the seamless way this troupe integrated hip hop and street
moves into ballet, underscored by Latin rhythms. Teens with
any dance in their genes will fall in love, as did the father/daughter
duo sitting next to me! And how many ballet stars double as
composers and choreographers, as Guillaume Côté
(composer) and Marcelo Gomes (choreographer) do?
- Tesla
Roadster. The world's most exciting car has just become
a collector's item.
As the launch of the new Tesla S sedan is scheduled for mid-2012,
the Tesla Roadster (sports car) is ceasing production, having
hit their target of 2500 vehicles. That means that only about
20 roadsters remain available in the U.S. There are a lot of variables
that could determine the future price of this extraordinary car,
however, if you believe that EVs are the wave of the future, the
Tesla Roadster is the defining moment in this nascent industry.
In a world where collectible hard assets will hold their value
far better than paper money, the Tesla Roadster might be a very
good investment.
- Beverly
Hills Hotel: Legendary
Glamour. The Beverly Hills Hotel is the icon
of La La Land, where Beverly Hills was born. May 12, 2012 marks
the 100th Anniversary, and now through May 12, there will be many
extraordinary galas and events for the Centenary. As we get closer
to the 100th Anniversary date, bungalows will be sold out, galas
will be overbooked and there will be no availability to experience
any of this magic. So, book your stay now, while prices are reasonable
and rooms are still available.
Enjoy
your own cabana at the world-famous "Pink Palace" pool. Have sunset
drinks overlooking the gardens in Bar Nineteen 12 (named for the
year the hotel was born). Grab a quick bite or breakie in the
intimate Fountain Coffee Room. Dazzle in your finest designer
duds at the famous Polo Lounge.
There are
many special offers going on right now at the Beverly Hills Hotel.
"And to all a free night" is a limited time offer to get a fourth
night free and free transportation into Beverly Hills for shopping
and dining during the holidays. Call 800-283-8885 to learn more.
Living the
rich life is very, very different than trying to get rich.
Yours in pace
and prosperity,
Natalie
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two
million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow
her on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
|
|
In
Shape Vs. Being Healthy.
by
Alvin
Tam.
There’s
a big difference between being in shape and being healthy. You can
be healthy but not be in shape, and you can be in shape but not
be in good health. When I was training for the circus I was in great
shape. I was a lean 165 pounds, ripped to the core, training 8 to
10 hours a day. I’d start the morning with handstands and finish
the day doing chin ups. Three times a week I would train MMA style
at the local fighter’s gym and teach self-defense at night. This
went on for four years.
But I was not
healthy, despite my fit appearance, acrobatic agility, and intense
physical lifestyle. I’d start the morning with a chocolate muffin
and milk and finish the day eating instant Ramen noodles. Most of
the week I was in pain – a rotating kind – where each day the suffering
would migrate to a new part of the body. I had severe back issues
for most of my second year in training, sprained ankles for most
of my third, and uncountable cuts, bruises, bumps, and scars for
the entire duration. I fought the flu at least 2 to 3 times a year.
I ate randomly, whenever I wanted, and almost always the food contained
sugar and white flour. I slept late, woke early, trained hard, and
slept late again.
The outside
projected pristine health – the glowing physical prowess of an athlete
in training, full of youth, well-oiled body parts, and a fully revved
engine. I was hitting red line RPMs with a smile on my face and
eagerness in my heart. The totality of training was a way of being
extreme, young, and fully alive.
I was definitely
in shape but not healthy. Slowly, my body was falling apart. This
youthful racecar was starting to hiccup and limp to the finish line.
By the time I completed my training I was strong, skilled – and
injured. My grand denouement or final act at the circus school was
a pulled rib cartilage that rendered me incapable of even sitting
up on my own. I was condemned to four weeks of shallow breathing,
slow walking, and much time to reflect.
There was a
gradual dawning that although I could make the packaging look good,
the contents inside were rotting. I needed to invest in better foods,
wiser training habits, and more sleep. Health was an elusive benefit
that not even a professional acrobat was privy too. You had to work
for health too.
Although today
I may not be doing the same number of flips, jumps, and spins as
I did during my training, I consider my current state as one of
the healthiest ever. I am mostly without pain, with the exception
of the occasional intense workout. I eat well and allow myself to
be indulgent when I want to be. When I’ve had enough of Thanksgiving
turkey, apple pie, and cider beer, my body tells me and I naturally
bounce back to eating fresh, organic foods again. My body knows
health, and is attracted to it.
I’m not at
my performance weight but not far from it. I train when my body
feels like moving – which is almost every day, but not always. I
sit and watch Friends reruns and then get up and hike in
the desert. The definition of health has changed for me over the
years and it is by far the healthiest yet.
I used to never
drink, fast for days, do week long herbal cleanses, and exercise
religiously. It was a regiment of to do’s to align myself with what
I thought was true health. I felt great for a while, but in the
end, lost the rhythm of the cleanse, changed exercise programs,
and gravitated to a new type of fast. It wasn’t consistent.
My current
understanding of true health is the ability to carefully listen
to the needs of your body and act upon them. Over-training is as
dangerous as not moving at all. Severe diets, cleanses, and fasts
can be as detrimental as junk food for breakfast everyday. There
is only one book that can give you the recipe for greater health,
and that book is written by you.
To drink in
consciousness, to eat ice cream in consciousness, and to watch football
in consciousness is a greater sign of health than exercising because
a sheet of paper, handed to you by your trainer, tells you to do
so. Developing consciousness is the greatest catalyst for developing
sustainable and natural health, because you already know what you
need. All you have to do is listen for it, and then act upon it.
About
Alvin Tam
Alvin Tam is the founder of Soul
Acrobats®, an inspirational products company and
Acrofit™, an acrobatic fitness system. He has over 15 years
of experience as a circus artist, stuntman, dancer, actor, and coach
and has performed for Cirque du Soleil, Notre Dame de Paris, and
appeared on CSI. Alvin’s passion is to inspire you to achieve your
impossible.
Products:
Visit - http://www.soulacrobats.com/products-page/
Book:
The Art of Impossible
DVD:
The Acrofit System Level 1, Expressive Yoga for the Soul
Alvin Tam’s
life partner, Jada Fire, also shares her secrets to health and a
flexible body and mind in her 60 minute instructional DVD Expressive
Yoga for the Soul. Shot and produced by Alvin, Jada takes you on
a journey of meditative restoration, invigorating breath work, and
beginner-friendly yoga postures. Heal and inspire, with Jada Fire!
To Get Your Copy Visit: http://jadafire.com/
|
|
Life
and Beyond.
by
Marilyn Tam
.
 |
| Marilyn
Tam. |
The
recent death of Steve Jobs, a man who dared to dream and create
beyond the constraints of the prevailing consciousness, brought
many people, including me, to a place of deep reflection. What does
it mean to be really alive? How do I make sure that I am living
my highest potential every day? How do I ensure that I will feel
at peace when it is my time to leave this planet?
Since
I write, speak and consult with companies and people internationally
on helping them find their life mission and on establishing a path
towards achieving it, this topic is especially relevant. Living
the Life of Your Dreams, my latest book, is directly
related to this subject. Steve Jobs’ many quotes and his personal
history are being mined globally for more nuggets of wisdom right
now. The hunger and admiration for commitment and dedication to
a higher purpose is universal.
"Your
time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t
be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other
people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of others’ opinions drown
out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to
follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what
you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary." Steve
Jobs
I
believe the above quote holds a key to Jobs’ success. He followed
his life purpose. He achieved what he was born to do. He didn’t
have his life path handed to him on a silver platter. He was given
up for adoption. He quit college after one semester because it was
draining his parents’ entire life savings for him to attend. He
still wanted to learn, so he slept on the floor of his friends’
dorm rooms. He sold soft drink bottles that he scavenged, to get
money for food, so he could sneak in to attend classes.
What
was remarkable about this story -- aside from the passion he had
for learning-- was what he said about the experience. He said that
not having to fulfill course requirements for a specific degree
freed him to learn what fascinated him. He followed his intuition
and curiosity. And his interests rewarded him and all of us. One
of the classes he took was a calligraphy class. Ten years later,
he added the myriad of fonts he learned in that class to the typography
in the first Macintosh. Our world of computer communication is richer
and much more expressive because of that.
How
are we living our lives? Are we doing what we are put on this earth
to do? Are we fulfilling our life destiny?
Like
many of my worldly successful clients, you may not be in touch with
your life purpose yet. Although they may have all the trappings
of what we are acculturated to believe are accomplished and happy
lives, they still feel something is missing. Usually that missing
something is that they forgot or did not listen to their own personal
dream. They are living the dream life that the media has convinced
us is what we all want, but inside they are unfulfilled.
Truly
there is no panacea to compensate for the hollowness, restlessness
and lack of inner peace that comes from living someone else’s life.
Money and/or crowd adulation cannot fill the hole of inner longing.
"Life
is what happens to you while you are busy making other plans."
John Lennon
Of
course there are the lucky and/or blessed ones who discover what
they are meant to do early in life. For you, it may be some inherent
knowing that you’ve had since you were a child. Or it may be a trigger
event or moment, which awoke in you your life calling. I am blessed
to say that I was fortunate to have this experience when I was eleven
years old. Knowing my life purpose has given me the strength to
pick myself up after the many times I’ve fallen down -- and to follow
my inner guidance to achieve my dream life. I feel it is now my
privilege to support others in following their dreams.
How
does one go about finding your life mission? Look inside. It is
there inside of you all along. There is an old parable about how
Spirit placed the most valuable thing for us to know inside of us
so that we have to be in touch with our hearts to find it. We have
to quiet the numerous voices of the media, friends, and even our
family to ask ourselves what is really true for us.
You
may find it hard to hear your inner voice immediately, if this is
a new experience for you. Please be patient, it may take several
times before you begin to get an inkling of it. Your innermost desire
may be buried under many layers of outside voices over the years.
There are tools that can help you access your inner wisdom. A very
effective one is journaling. The very act of writing things down
helps clarify ideas. Another one is to do a collage. Choosing pictures
and words that evoke a sense of joy and peace in you helps elicit
your core purpose.
Let
the thoughts and ideas gradually coalesce into a more coherent form.
Allow this process to take the time it needs. Be easy on yourself.
Step-by-step, you will sense what has been calling to you all along.
Getting some
clarity in your present moment will give you more perspective on
what’s important versus what’s urgent. It will give you ideas of
how you can go towards your ideal life. Also smile, yes, even when
you don’t feel like it. The very act of moving those smile muscles
will help to relax you and quiet the noises inside your head. It’s
almost like magic!
Enjoy your
life journey, and may you always Live
the Life of Your Dreams. So when the time comes
for you to transition from this planet, you will feel at peace and
be contented that you have indeed lived the life you were born to
live.
Marilyn
Tam is an international selling author, speaker, entrepreneur, humanitarian
and former CEO of Aveda, President of Reebok Apparel Products &
Retail Group and VP of Nike.
Marilyn
wrote her books, How
to Use What You’ve Got to Get What You Want and
Living
the Life of Your Dreams, so that others can learn
from the experiences and secrets of successful and happy people
and from her own experience. You can find out more about Marilyn
on her website MarilynTam.com
and connect with her on Facebook.
|
|
Dow
is Up 1000 Points.
by Natalie
Pace.
November
2, 2011
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Monday,
1.2.2008
|
Monday,
1.2.2009
|
Monday
1.3.2011
|
Friday,
11.2.2011
|
Gains
3-yr, 2-yr & 9 mo.
|
|
Dow:
13,044.12
|
Dow:
9,034.69
|
Dow:
11,577.43
|
11,823.51
|
-9%
& +31% & +2%
|
|
Nasdaq:
2,609.63
|
Nasdaq:
1,632.21
|
Nasdaq:
2,676.65
|
2,634.50
|
+1%
& +61% & -2%
|
|
S&P:
1,447.16
|
S&P:
931.80
|
S&P:
1,257.62
|
1,235.92
|
-15%
& +33% & -2%
|
Wall Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow
Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547
(3.9.09)
|
14,164
(10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ
Composite Index
|
1,114
(10.9.02)
|
5,060.34
(3.10.00)
|
Hot News
on Cool Stocks Important Data
Up to 18X
gains on U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ
Doubled the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains from 2009-2011
Gold
continues momentum, at 28% gains so far in 2011 (-8% off of high
of $1,895/ounce set on 9.5.11)
13 out
of 14 Company of the Month features from 2010 posted gains.
Gold
tops stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years.

Compare those
returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills
and gold over the last 30 years.

Market
Update:
We're
in the Money
Yesterday's
headline was that this is the worst November opening on Wall Street
since 1932 (Dow down -2.79%). Last week, we had one of the best
news ever. October S&P 500 gains were 10.77%, fueling one of
the best October performances on record. What's the real score?
The Dow is flat on the year, but up over 1000 points from the October
1 lows... Rollercoaster ride...
At the beginning
of October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had bottomed out to
an annual low of 10,404. Today, you're 14% richer. Buying stock
in your favorite company during this wild ride feels crazy, however,
those who do are already in the money. On October 3, 2011, I highlighted
38 companies and all 38 were up by mid-October, earning between
10-40% gains.
Now the question
is, if you purchased and are in the money (and if you purchased
on October 3-4, 2011, you are in the money), should you take
your profits or hang on for the Santa Rally? Below are five key
considerations.
- Eurozone
- Pre-Election
Year
- Santa
Rally
- U.S.
Credit Risk
- Corporate
Earnings
Rollercoaster
of Debt, Credit Risk and Corporate Earnings
The
reason that the markets are the most thrilling rollercoaster in
the world right now is that two forces, one with Death Star like
gravitational pull and the other effervescent as the birth of a
star, battle for dominance day in and day out. The debt problems
in PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain in the Eurozone)
and the credit risk (political stupidity) in the U.S. scare the
heck out of investors. Then strong corporate earnings seduce investors
back in, giving us all hope that Main Street will start experiencing
some recovery. As you can see in the chart from my article "Buying
Low Stinks," earnings per share in the S&P 500 companies
are higher than they have been since 1999.
As for the
Pre-Election Year and Santa Rally, those trends were shattered in
2007, when the mortgage banking system went into a tailspin, creating
the Great Recession.
Performance
of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
January 1, 2007 to January 1, 2009

Source:
Money.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)
The
below chart illustrates just how different things are in the post-bailout
world. Over the past twenty years, the trend was that most months
were positive, with slight pullbacks once a quarter. Over the past
five years, the swings are triple and quadruple what they were and
there are as many months in the red as there are gainers. Clearly,
we're still roiling in the aftermath of bailing out our banks and
legacy corporations.
Monthly
Returns of the S&P500 (annualized)
1991
Through 2010
|
Month
|
20
years
|
10
years
|
5
years
|
|
January
|
0.09%
|
-1.61%
|
-2.89%
|
|
February
|
-0.56%
|
-2.37%
|
-2.75%
|
|
March
|
1.28%
|
1.05%
|
3.19%
|
|
April
|
2.01%
|
2.71%
|
4.23%
|
|
May
|
0.96%
|
0.66%
|
-0.46%
|
|
June
|
-0.66%
|
-2.26%
|
-3.15%
|
|
July
|
0.605%
|
0.062%
|
2.12%
|
|
August
|
-0.40%
|
-0.18%
|
0.65%
|
|
September
|
-0.07%
|
-0.94%
|
1.86%
|
|
October
|
1.61%
|
1.44%
|
-0.23%
|
|
November
|
0.54%
|
1.66%
|
-0.95%
|
|
December
|
2.00%
|
1.25%
|
1.9%
|
Source:
Standard and Poor’s data, Natalie Pace data crunch © 2011
While the Spring
Rally (March and April) has been stronger than ever since the Great
Recession, every month from October to March has been ugly, except
for December.
It is unlikely
that the last quarter of 2011 will party like it's 1999. As long
as this dance between wishful optimism and Apocalyptic fear continues,
there will be volatility. So, anytime you're in the money, your
best mantra is to take your profits early and often. For nest egg
investors, that means, at minimum, that you must be rebalancing
1-3 times per year. Buy and hold doesn't work anymore.
It is also
critically important to get safe (and know what is safe), avoid
the Bailouts, add in Hot Industries, lean into growth and go light
on value (where the Bailouts are all stashed). If you relied on
your financial planner to do that for you and ended up with a cracked
nest egg, the solution is to get the financial literacy education
that you should have received in high school. This all may sound
difficult, but it is really easy as a pie chart. And once you know
what a healthy nest egg looks like, then you can hire the perfect
contractor (Certified Financial Planner) to build and nurture it.
Investor
Edu Retreat:
Modern Portfolio
Theory (what my Easy-as-a-Pie Chart Nest Egg strategy is based upon)
saved Bill
and Nilo Bolden's nest egg in the Great Recession and had
novice investors doubling the returns of the Dow over the last few
years. Call 310-430-2397 NOW to learn how you can attend a boardroom
retreat with just 12 others, learning these strategies hands-on
from me.
Investor
Alerts:
1. OPEC:
The trade imbalance with OPEC is currently over $12 billion per
month, which is one of the top assassins of GDP growth. Be sure
to read my article, "Oil
is Killing U.S. Growth," from the November 2011 ezine,
volume 8, issue 11.
2. Debt:
Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+
on August 5, 2011. The Budget Plan of August 2, 2011 fell short
by almost $2 trillion. A lowered debt rating means we will
likely pay more interest -- potentially a lot more -- which makes
it even more difficult to balance the budget and spark GDP growth.
3. Real
Estate: There
were 9.3 million foreclosure filings between 2007 and 2010.
At least 3.7 million properties are in a seriously delinquent stage.
This means that there will no upside in real estate prices (except
in certain cities) until 2013. Could be a good time to buy, while
interest rates are low. If you are underwater on your mortgage or
delinquent on your payments and are considering the "unthinkable,"
email Heather at NataliePace.com
to get the links to some very important articles.
4. 911 Investor
Alert: Bonds and Treasury Bills. Read up on how to understand
the risk in bonds and select high quality safe areas for your money
in two
featured bond articles in the May 2011 ezine (volume 8,
issue 5). In the meantime, low-risk, cash-positive hard assets are
King (and no, I'm not suggesting to go all in on gold, see below).
Bonds and bond funds are vulnerable to loss of principal value now.
Interest rates will rise (eventually) if the U.S. debt problem is
not fixed. It might take a few months or even a few years, but without
reform, credit risk will increase, driving up interest rates.
5. Gold:
If you purchased gold at $850/ounce in 1980, you had to wait 26
years for the value to return. Most of the time, gold seesawed between
$250-$350 an ounce over that period. Now, with prices near $1800/ounce,
large holders of gold, including the United States, Brazil and more,
could be tempted to sell high. For a brief history of gold and information
on which countries are the biggest holders of gold, read, "The
Gold Crash of 1980," from the September 2010 ezine,
volume 7, issue 9. Gold continues to be a hot industry, but you
do not want to be all in and be careful about buying high.
So is There
Anything Good Out There?
Yes,
believe it or not, there are some excellent areas in the economy.
My 2009 Company of the Year, U.S. Gold, posted up to 18X gains.
Applied Materials, the 2010 Company of the Year, posted 25% gains
within a few months of being named. 13 out of 14 Companies featured
in my Company of the Month articles in 2010 were winners. Your nest
egg has almost fully recovered from the Great Recession. If you
have a great credit rating and can get a loan, there are areas of
the country where you can buy cash positive, low risk income property.
And even if you're in trouble, in doubt, losing a home or declaring
bankruptcy, there are some very important things to do to squirrel
away as many assets as possible. The best way to learn about these
things is to read this ezine top to bottom, read You
Vs. Wall Street and register to attend the next
Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat. Once you have the wisdom and
education that you should have received in high school, all of this
will be easy and can be set up on auto-pilot. Until then, you are
vulnerable to more boom/bust markets.
Banks Are
Still Failing
There
were 157 bank failures in 2010, 140 bank failures in 2009 and 25
in 2008. 85 banks have already failed in 2011 (source: FDIC.gov).
Don't be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of
them are fairy tales. (Nonproducing loans are carried off the books;
TARP and other Federal Reserve swaps are about as easy to figure
out as the origin of the life.) 13 million homes (or more) will
be lost between 2007 and 2012 and not all of them hitting the financial
statements with as much force as they should...
Track
Record of our Reporting
While
the markets are still down significantly since their high in October
of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning
track record before, during and after the Great Recession -- in
bear and bull market years. 124 positions listed over the
last four years -- 84% -- have delivered impressive gains, even
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than
it was in 2007 (when it cracked through 14,000)! Only twenty-three
of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting,
which is quite impressive given the market gyrations of more than
7000 point swings since 2008.
Remember that
the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you're new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing
years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice
a year, not trying to market time.)
Half
of My Company of the Year selections more than doubled.
My 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted
up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware), up to 215%
gains (Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 18X ROI for U.S. Gold,
respectively. Applied Materials, 2010 Company of the Year, and MySpace,
my 2006 Company of the Year, were both super performers within a
few short months of their listings. So seven out of nine
Company of the Year selections were the best Wall Street has to
offer. That's the kind of record that made me a #1 stock picker.
(I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured
the first Company of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)
13 out of
14 companies featured in the Company of the Month articles in 2010
earned gains -- 93%! Some other big hits were Google at the IPO
(over 7X gains), Rio Tinto (tripled in value) and shorts like Fannie
Mae (in 2003), real estate (2005), General Motors (2005) and Las
Vegas (2008).
The NataliePace.com
ezine was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- Muni bond
and bond funds 911
Investor Alert in Sept. 2010.
- 2008
Recession
(Get
Safe)
- Trim back
on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Get out
of Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Google
at the IPO! (May 2004)
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
Market
Movers:
The
Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to 1/4 percent." The
next FOMC meeting takes place on December 13, 2011.
GDP Growth
Rates: The advance estimates of 3rd quarter GDP growth were
better than expected, at 2.5%. However the revisions have been downward
of late. 1st quarter 2011 GDP growth rates were revised downward
to 0.4% (blame the high price of oil). So, don't assume this growth
rate will hold over the next two months. 3rd quarter 2011 (second
estimates) will be released on November 22, 2011 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
GDP Growth
in the U.S.
|
Year
|
GDP
Growth
|
|
2010
|
3%
|
|
2009
|
-3.5%
|
|
2008
|
-0.3%
|
|
2007
|
1.9%
|
Source:
BEA.gov
These release
days tend to be very active on Wall Street. For more information
on GDP growth and other important economic statistics, go to the
BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar
section often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the press
release of the September 20-21, 2011 FOMC meeting for yourself?
The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Go to
FederalReserve.gov
to read! According to the Committee, "he Committee continues
to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters...
[But] there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook,
including strains in global financial markets."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2011-2012 calendar is December 13,
2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.), March 13, 2012
(Tuesday), April 24-25 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 19-20 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
July 31 (Tuesday), September 12 (Wednesday), October 23-24 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2013 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check
out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. You will
find great opportunities to attend the most exclusive business and
Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and radio shows and other
educational opportunities -- many are FREE! Get more information
on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com.
Don't miss
the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen
back to any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod
casts and are FREE!
BlogTalkRadio
offers a Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing
questions. Be sure to keep a list of your questions as they come
up, and join our ongoing dialog on peace and prosperity, getting
rich and enriching, green investing, the Thrive Budget and more
on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page.
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.50% (main refinancing), 2.25% (marginal lending)
and 0.75% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement are scheduled for November 3, 2011 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
(November 17, 2011 & December 8, 2011 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com's article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all -- not even for "pros." If you've never traded
individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don't
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
Galaxy
Resources (GALXF)
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
Eldorado
Gold (EGO) on 9.7.11
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Hot News List
|
Price
11.2.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
S&P
Emerging Middle East and Africa Fund
|
No
|
GAF
|
$60.06
|
$66.31
|
$79.97
$57.00
|
+11%
|
|
Read
"Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Allscripts
Healthcare Solutions
|
No
|
MDRX
|
$18.01
$15.27
(8.15.11)
|
$18.85
|
$23.13
$14.30
|
+5% &
+23%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.
2nd
quarter 2011 earnings: GAAP revenue of $356.8 million, up
11% from a year ago. Bookings of $244.6 million, 15 percent
sequential growth compared to $212.4 million in the first
quarter of 2011. GAAP net income of $15.9 million.
Allscripts
Healthcare Solutions, Inc., formerly Allscripts-Misys Healthcare
Solutions, Inc. (Allscripts), is a provider of clinical software,
services, information and connectivity solutions that are
used by physicians and other healthcare providers to improve
the quality of healthcare.
Added
four strong executives to the team in July 2011. Cliff Meltzer,
a veteran development leader for Apple, Cisco, IBM and most
recently CA Technologies, joined Allscripts as Executive Vice
President, Solutions Development, with responsibility for
product development company-wide. Steve Shute, a veteran sales
leader, will be joining Allscripts as Executive Vice
President, Sales. Mr. Shute has held numerous executive leadership
positions at the IBM Corporation. Jackie Studer joined Allscripts
as Senior Vice President and General Counsel; she comes from
GE. John Guevara, a seasoned leader with extensive success
leading mission-critical operations for Microsoft and other
top technology companies, joined Allscripts as Chief Information
Officer.
|
|
American
Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$27.77
$3.42
(10.1.11)
|
$4.03
|
$38.88
$3.21
|
-85%
&
+18%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
9.23.11:
American Superconductor Corporation AMSC,
a global power technologies company, today announced its recent
successes in the wind power and power grid markets, including
nearly $100 million in new contracts since the start of the
company’s fiscal year on April 1, 2011. AMSC signed contracts
with wind turbine manufacturers in China, India and Korea.
9.23.11:
Announced full year 2010 and 1Q 2011 results. Fiscal 2010
revenues were $286.6 million, which compares with $316.0 million
for fiscal 2009. The company reported a net loss of $186.3
million, or $3.95 per diluted share, for fiscal 2010. Fiscal
2010 revenues include the impact of applying a cash basis
of accounting to recognize revenue for shipments to certain
customers in China as of September 1, 2010 and for shipments
to Sinovel Wind Group Co., Ltd. (Sinovel) as of October 1,
2010. The company’s fiscal 2010 net loss includes $158.5 million
in aggregate one-time asset write-downs, impairments and accrued
charges recorded primarily in the fourth quarter of fiscal
2010 associated with the company’s accounting judgment that
its relationship with Sinovel will not continue. This compares
with net income of $16.2 million, or $0.36 per diluted share,
for fiscal year 2009.
Revenues
for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 were $9.1 million. This
compares with $97.2 million for the first quarter of fiscal
2010. The decline is due primarily to a lack of revenue from
Sinovel. The company reported a net loss for the quarter of
$37.7 million, $0.74 per diluted share. This compares with
net income of $9.2 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, for
the first quarter of fiscal 2010.
The Switch
acquisition was cancelled on 10.31.11. It will cost AMSC $20
million to terminate the deal.
"Our
financial results for fiscal 2010 and the first quarter of
fiscal 2011 are a reflection of our past," said AMSC
President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel McGahn. "Our
efforts to build a better AMSC are now well underway. We have
reduced our cost structure by more than $30 million annually
and realigned our business into market-facing Wind and Grid
segments. We also have won nearly $100 million in new contracts
since the start of our fiscal year, which we believe will
help expand our customer base, diversify our revenue streams
and return the company to growth.
|
|
AOL
|
Yes
|
AOL
|
$21.22
$11.53
(10.1.11)
|
$15.26
|
$29.45
$10.06
|
-28%
&
+33%
|
|
Read
"AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12 and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
On 8.11.11,
AOL announced authorization to buyback $250 million of its
own shares. Meanwhile, rumors swirl that AOL will be bought
by a private equity firm.
3Q2011
earnings on November 2, 2011: revenue was $531.7 million,
down 6% from a year ago. Net loss was $2.6 million, versus
income of $171.6 million a year ago..
AOL purchased
Huffington Post for $315 million in Feb. 2011 (Huff generates
upwards of $50 million). AOL owns Moviefone, Mapquest, among
other popular destinations. Launched Editions on Aug. 2 for
iPad -- the magazine that customizes reading experiences for
each user.
Per Nielsen
Net Ratings, AOL is the 10th most trafficked "web
parent companies" in the United States, with more time
online than the other top 9, at 51 minutes per person. Sales
for AOL is $2.30 billion annually, but there is plenty of
room for this company to come closer to Yahoo's $6 billion
in annual revenue and take a bite out of Google's $31 billion.
"AOL
grew global advertising by 8%, driven by 28% and 15% growth
in third party network and global display advertising revenue,
respectively, substantially closing the gap to revenue and
eventual profit growth," said Tim Armstrong, Chairman and
CEO. "We continue to build strong consumer experiences as
we execute our strategy to build the premium branded media
company for the internet. Our share repurchases underlie our
belief in the value of AOL and our strategy."
|
|
Applied
Materials
2010
Company of the Year
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$13.10
$9.78
(10.1.11)
|
$12.05
|
$16.94
$10.27
|
-8% &
+23%
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010
and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company
of the Year! 3Q earnings will be announced on August 24, 2011
at 4:30 p.m. ET.
|
|
iShares
Australia Index
|
No
|
EWA
|
$22.84
$19.36
(10.1.11)
|
$23.14
|
$28.36
$19.36
|
+2% &
+21%
|
|
Read
"Are
Commodity-Rich Countries Worth a Look?" from Vol.
8, issue 6 and "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7. This fund was
a rock star on Wall Street in 2009-2010. Australia benefits
from having lower debt and a closer proximity to China than
the U.S. Also, is rich in natural resources (needed by China),
lower in unemployment (at 5.1%) and avoided the bank bailouts
that sank the U.S. and U.K. Queensland rains and flooding
in 2010 and 2011 impacted GDP growth in the most recent quarter
(negative GDP growth), however, GDP growth has been stronger
than the U.S. and Western Europe.
|
|
Bank
of Montreal
|
No
|
BMO
|
$54.08
|
$57.33
|
$66.64
$53.36
|
+6%
|
|
Refer
to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details.
Canada's banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for
global capital in 2009; Australia was #2. Canada has a higher
debt to GDP ratio than the U.S., however, so don't dive in
without testing the water first. Check out the article.
|
|
Canadian
Imperial Bank
RISK:
Low
|
No
|
CM
|
$67.64
|
$72.79
|
$88.76
$67.05
|
+8%
|
|
Refer
to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details.
Canada's banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for
global capital in 2009; Australia was #2. Canada has a higher
debt to GDP ratio than the U.S., however, so don't dive in
without testing the water first. Check out the article.
|
|
iShares
Chile Fund
|
No
|
ECH
|
$65.05
$51.16
(10.1.11)
|
$62.19
|
$80.38
$51.16
|
-4% &
+21%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
iShares
MSCI China Small Cap Index Fund
|
No
|
ECNS
|
$48.38
$31.04
(10.1.11)
|
$37.66
|
$58.80
$31.04
|
-13%
&
+22%
|
|
Read
"Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Cree
|
Yes
|
CREE
|
$52.10
$23.35
(10.1.11)
|
$26.27
|
$83.38
$23.35
|
-49%
&
+12%
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, and
August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company.
Revenue growth is solid. Sales to Asia are strong. Future
likes bright! And the price is finally right.
1Q earnings
on October 18, 2011. 1Q revenue was $269.0 million, with net
income of $12.8 million.
President
Obama visited CREE on June 15, 2011 to discuss policies to
spur economic growth. In his remarks, President Obama stated,
"So today the small business that a group of N.C. State engineering
students founded almost 25 years ago is a global company.
Next month, your new production line will begin running 24/7.
So you're helping to lead a clean energy revolution. You're
helping lead the comeback of American manufacturing. This
is a company where the future will be won."
"Although
we have seen tremendous growth in LED lighting sales over
the last few years, it is clear that we have only scratched
the surface of LED lighting adoption and there is growing
demand for products that offer innovative solutions and good
payback," Chuck Swoboda, Cree chairman and CEO said,
in a press release.
|
|
iShares
Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EEM
|
$41.27
$34.29
(10.1.11)
|
$41.04
|
$50.30
$34.29
|
Flat
&
+20%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
ENER1
|
Yes
|
HEV
|
$3.68
$0.14
(10.1.11)
|
$0.09
|
$5.90
$0.14
|
-98%
&
-36%
|
|
Read
"Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car (Again)?" in Vol. 8,
issue 10, "Earth
Hour"
in Vol. 8, issue 4 and "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact,
high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation
of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
Bloomberg
is reporting that NASDAQ delisted ENER1 on 10.28.11. I've
requested confirmation and details from ENER1, but didn't
receive as of press time.
2Q earnings
will be late. Company filed for an extension on Aug. 9, 2011.
On August 16, 2011, ENER1 announced that they will be restating
their earnings to reflect Think Holdings affect on the company.
"All of the restatements involve non-cash items and will have
no impact on the company's current or previously stated cash
position or cash flows," according to the company. NASDAQ
has issued a letter to the company notifying them that they
are out of compliance (due to the late earnings reports).
Short sellers are having a field day with the stock. Having
the price at 40 cents a share is a big problem as well, but
one that financially savvy CEOs, like HEV's, know how to solve
(usually with a reverse split).
One thing
that bodes well for the lithium ion battery makers is that
the White House announced New
Fuel Economy standards. By 2025, the average mpg
will be 54.5 mph. Consumers will save $1.7 trillion at the
pump, 12 billion barrels of oil and eliminate 6 billion metric
tons of CO2.
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$65.83
|
$81.06
|
$93.00
$65.58
|
+23%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)"
from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?," from Vol.
7, issue 2.
|
|
Galaxy
Resources
RISK:
HIGH
(off
the boards, thinly traded)
|
No
|
GALXF
|
$1.18
$0.58
(10.1.11)
|
$0.71
|
$1.80
$0.55
|
-42%
&
+22%
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue
2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and China.
Traded off the boards in the US, but is listed on the Australia
Stock Exchange.
Galaxy
has two strong aspects -- Australia-based company in an emerging
market -- lithium. Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) is
an international S&P/ASX 300 Index Company which is soon
to become one of the world's leading producers of lithium
- the essential component for powering the world's fast expanding
fleet of hybrid and electric cars. By 2012, Galaxy's
Mt Cattlin mine will be the world's second largest hard rock
producer of lithium and through the development of its value
adding lithium carbonate plant (17,000tpa), the Company will
be the largest and lowest cost lithium producer in China.
Annual
meeting was held on Friday, May 13, 2011 at 10 a.m. in Perth,
Australia. Loss for 2010 was $29.6 million. Had $28 million
in cash before the $120 million private placement in April
2011.
Announced
private placement of $120 million at $1.10 share on April
14, 2011. The issue was substantially oversubscribed with
strong interest coming out of Europe, Asia, US and Australia.
Galaxy
wholly-owns and operates the Mt. Cattlin mine, which is currently
producing spodumene concentrate. Galaxy's Jiangsu lithium
carbonate plant, once completed, will have a design capacity
of 17,000 tpa of lithium carbonate, which Galaxy expects would
make it one of the largest plants in China converting hard
rock lithium mineral concentrates into lithium compounds and
chemicals.
Lithium
compounds such as lithium carbonate are forecast to be in
high future demand due to advances in long life batteries
and sophisticated electronics including mobile phones and
computers.
Galaxy
Resources has positioned itself to meet this
lithium future by not only mining the lithium, but also by
downstream processing to supply lithium carbonate to the expanding
Asian market.
|
|
Goldman
Sachs
|
No
|
GS
|
$108.34
$90.08
(10.1.11)
|
$106.13
|
$175.34
$84.27
|
-2% &
+18%
|
|
3Q 2011
results on October 18, 2011. Revenues were $3.59 billion with
a net loss of $393 million.
The Feds
issued a "formal enforcement action" against Goldman for mortgage
related problems with Litton Loan Servicing. Goldman sold
Litman on Sept. 1, 2011, but acknowledges that they are responsible
for the enforcement action. Goldman has been beaten up and
their share price might continue to be battered in the near
term. However, this company is at the top of the game in terms
of Mergers and Acquisitions, LBOs (Leveraged Buy Outs), and
is trading far beneath the book value of its shares, which
were at 142 on Sept. 7, 2011.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$540.96
$492.71
(10.1.11)
|
$584.82
|
$642.96
$447.65
|
+9% &
+20%
|
|
See Vol.
8, issue 2 article, "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google," and Vol. 6, issue
5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes." Excellent company and
great anchor for your large caps in the nest egg, with one
huge hitch -- the company lost its leader on April 1, 2011.
Larry Page became the CEO, moving Dr. Eric Schmidt, whom everyone
considers to be the mastermind from Google the search engine
to Google the ubiquitous Internet and phone behemoth, to executive
chairman. Sergey Brin will handle "strategic projects"
without a real title, except "co-founder."
Announced
3Q results on Oct. 13, 2011. Google reported revenues of $9.72
billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2011, an increase of
33% compared to the 3Q 2010. Net income was $2.73 billion,
compared to $2.17 billion a year ago.
Cash --
As of June 30, 2011, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable
securities were $42.6 billion. No debt.
Headcount
-- On a worldwide basis, Google employed 31,353 full-time
employees as of June 30, 2011.
|
|
Green
Dot
|
Yes
|
GDOT
|
$41.25
$29.46
(10.1.11)
|
$31.99
|
$65.10
$24.94
|
-22%
&
+8%
|
|
Read
"IPO
of the Year"
from Vol. 7, issue 3.
3Q results
on Oct. 27, 2011: Total operating revenues increased 26% from
a year ago, to $119 million. Net income was $13.3 million
for the first quarter of 2011 compared to $9 million for the
first quarter of 2010. Gross dollar volume was at $4.1 billion
this quarter, up 63% from the same quarter 2010.
Cool
progress and steady, though not stellar growth, in a space
that is bound to see a lot more competition (from MasterCard
and Visa to name two). WalMart is a partner and investor.
|
|
Hoku
Corporation
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$1.75
(3.15.11)
|
$1.47
|
$14.55
$1.41
|
-82%
&
-17%
|
|
Read
"One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue
5, ""The
Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10. 1Q earnings announced
on August 11, 2011. 2Q will be announced on Nov. 10, 2011.
Revenue
for the quarters ended June 30, 2011 and 2010 were $485,000
and $930,000, respectively. Net loss was $10.2 million, or
$0.19 per share, compared to $2.7 million, or $0.05 per share,
for the same period in fiscal 2011. The increased net loss
is attributable to HOKU's increasing operating costs, including
labor and materials, as we begin commissioning and prepare
for the operation of HOKU's polysilicon plant, and $5.3 million
in expenses from payments to Idaho Power Company pursuant
to HOKU's electric service agreement with them. Scott Paul,
chief executive officer of Hoku Corporation, said, "During
the last quarter we have continued our construction and commissioning
activities at Hoku Materials as we prepare to commence operations
in the weeks ahead, and we have maintained our focus on delivering
investment-grade photovoltaic (PV) systems at Hoku Solar."
8.4.11:
Forest City Hawaii and Hawaiian Electric Company have reached
a power purchase agreement for up to one megawatt of solar
photovoltaic (PV) power to be generated at the Kapolei Sustainable
Energy Park in Kapolei, Oahu. Hoku Solar, a subsidiary of
Hoku Corporation (NASDAQ: HOKU), will design and install the
project using more than 4,200 solar panels atop a concrete
racking system.
Tianwei
has invested more than $129 million of its own capital in
Hoku, and they have provided support for another $244 million
in debt financing from banks in China. Tianwei continues to
support the financing required to bring HOKU's 4,000 metric
ton polysilicon facility online.
Has
only $18 million in cash... Will need to raise more. Again...
Unless they start bringing in revenue from the silicon manufacturing
facility in Idaho.
|
|
Jiayuan
|
No
|
DATE
|
$12.70
$7.21
(10.1.11)
|
$8.78
|
$16.12
$7.21
|
-31%
&
+22%
|
|
Read
"The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue
9. Jiayuan is the Chinese Match.com.
|
|
KLA Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$40.59
$35.93
(9.15.11)
|
$45.72
|
$51.83
$26.69
|
+13%
&
+27%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from the August 1, 2010
ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.
1Q on
Oct. 28, 2011: $892 million revenue in 4Q, up from $559 million
in 2010. Net income was $192 million, from $113 million last
year. Revenues were $796 million.
Has over
$2 billion in cash.
"KLA-Tencor's
market leadership and strong business model enabled us to
deliver solid financial results in the first quarter of fiscal
year 2012, despite a challenging global economic and industry
environment," commented Rick Wallace, president and chief
executive officer of KLA-Tencor. "Though some of our
customers are delaying capacity expansion plans today as they
assess current macroeconomic and industry conditions, we are
well-positioned to benefit from the investments that our customers
are continuing to make in driving their advanced technology
roadmaps."
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
Check out this Fox
Biz interview with CEO of KLA on 9.27.11.
|
|
iShares
S&P Latin America 40 Index
|
No
|
ILF
|
$43.92
$37.84
(10.1.11)
|
$45.16
|
$55.38
$37.84
|
+3% &
+19%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
LDK SOLAR
|
No
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$2.70
(10.1.11)
|
$3.79
|
$15.10
$2.70
|
+13%
&
+41%
|
|
Read
the articles, "One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue
5, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
2Q 2011
earnings were announced on August 29, 2011. Net sales of $499.4
million, a decrease of 34.8% sequentially and a decrease of
11.6% year-over-year;. Net loss was $47.9 million, compared
to a net profit of $78.6 million a year ago. During the preparation
of its second quarter 2011 financial results, LDK Solar's
management determined that an inventory write-down of $52.9
million was required as a result of the significant drop in
market price for wafers and modules during the second quarter.
As a result, gross margin and results from operations were
negatively impacted in the second quarter of fiscal 2011.
"Our
second quarter results reflect the challenging solar industry
dynamics that resulted from recent policy revisions in Europe
and consequently reduced demand for PV products," stated Xiaofeng
Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "Lower pricing across
the supply chain negatively impacted our financial results
for the quarter.
"In recent
weeks, we have seen average selling prices begin to stabilize
and improvement to order patterns. We have continued to gain
traction in expanding our presence in key markets such as
North America and China. In the U.S., our recently established
sales and marketing operation has already begun to gain traction
in winning large module contracts. In China, we are encouraged
by the announcement of the unified national feed-in-tariff
program. We have an established, strong market position in
our domestic market and see significant long-term growth opportunities.
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
Yes
|
WFR
|
$11.99
$4.69
(10.1.11)
|
$5.40
|
$19.31
$4.69
|
-55%
&
+17%
|
|
Read
"One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue
5 and "The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.
2Q earnings
on August 3, 2011. GAAP net sales of $745.6 million, an increase
of 66% from a year ago. MEMC reported GAAP net income
for quarter of $47.3 million.
MEMC
has $652 million in cash.
The Japanese
earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis interrupted operations
at MEMC Electronics Utsunomiya facility between March 11,
2011 and early April 2011.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$24.88
$23.71
(6.15.11)
|
$26.07
|
$29.46
$22.73
|
+5% &
+10%
|
|
Watch
my appearance on CNBC,
outlining the reasons Skype is a very hot acquisition for
Microsoft, and read my article, "One
Very Hot IPO" from the
September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue. 9. Microsoft purchased
Skype on May 10, 2011 for $8.5 billion in cash. I added Microsoft
to the Hot News list on 5.15.11.
|
|
PowerShares
Lux Nanotech
|
No
|
PXN
|
$8.87
$5.54
(10.1.11)
|
$6.27
|
$10.85
$5.54
|
-29%
&
+14%
|
|
Potential
hot industry for your pie chart. Read the 2010
Company of the Year article from December 2010
ezine, Vol. 7, issue 12. Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED
marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$113.25
|
$83.33
|
$304.79
$98.54
|
-27%
|
|
Read
"Blockbuster’s
Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5. Content
continues to lag behind the competition. Great, innovative
company, with a lot of competition.
3Q results
on Oct. 24, 2011. $821,839 million in revenue. Net income
$62.460 million.
|
|
PowerShares
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.91
$5.02
(10.1.11)
|
$5.86
|
$11.42
$5.02
|
-40%
&
+18%
|
|
Read
"$100/Barrel
Oil" from
the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RIO
|
$59.86
$42.87
(10.1.11)
|
$53.77
|
$76.67
$42.87
|
-11%
&
+24%
|
|
Gold,
copper and other commodities mining. Based out of Australia.
Mines worldwide, but great way to capitalize on Australia's
robust economy.
Half
Year 2011 results were released on August 4, 2011. Record
underlying earnings of $7.8 billion, 35 per cent above 2010's
half year results. Net debt reduced to $4.3 billion at 31
December 2010, from $18.9 billion at 31 December 2009. $5
billion share buyback program now through year end 2012. Net
earnings are up to $14 billion in 2010, over $4.9 billion
in 2009. Chairman Jan du Plessis said "This year's record
results reflect a combination of strong commodity markets,
first class assets and excellent operational performance at
our managed operations.
Prices
improved for nearly all of Rio Tinto's major commodities:
copper prices were up 47 per cent, molybdenum prices were
up 45 per cent, gold prices were up 26 per cent and aluminium
prices were 31 per cent higher than 2009. Demand and prices
for diamonds and minerals improved significantly as the worldwide
economy emerged from the global financial recession.
|
|
Satcon
2011
Company of the Year
|
Yes
|
SATC
|
$3.77
$0.89
(10.111)
|
$1.09
|
$5.51
$0.89
|
-72%
&
+22%
|
|
Read
"2011
Company of the Year," from Vol. 8, issue
4 and "$100/Barrel
Oil"
from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3. 3Q earnings
will be announced on 11.8.11.
8.11.11:
Satcon announced that 10 of their 1 MW Prism Platform™
Solutions will be used in the New Jersey Oak Solar PV Power
Plant in Fairfield Township, Cumberland County, New Jersey.
2Q 2011
earnings on August 9, 2011: revenue was $45.5 million, up
64.7% from last year
Net loss
was $20.1 million.
"The
market environment in the second quarter was challenging.
Despite the strength of North America, the market conditions
in Europe and Asia had negative effects on our overall performance,"
said Steve Rhoades, President and Chief Executive Officer
of Satcon. "In addition, we incurred one-time charges
associated with inventory, restructuring, and the strategic
decision to accelerate product development. Although these
measures have resulted in a higher than expected operating
loss, they have effectively strengthened our ability to achieve
our revenue and cost targets by the end of 2011."
At March
31, 2011, the company's backlog, which consists of purchase
orders from its customers, was $55.2 million. Backlog
from North America represented 74% of orders to be delivered.
Asia contributed 15%, while Europe contributed 611%.
On 5.23.11:
Satcon announced that it had achieved the number one position
in market share for the North American solar inverter market.
On 5.13.11
Satcon announced that Aaron M. Gomolak has replaced Donald
R. Peck as Satcon's Executive Vice President, Chief Financial
Officer and Treasurer. This was a last minute shuffle. Not
a good sign.
|
|
Sociedad
Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$46.39
|
$57.92
|
$67.75
$46.00
|
+25%
|
|
This
is a great company that manufactures lithium for the electric
car & IT industry and potash for agriculture. Businesses
include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium. Looking
for a better buy-in.
Read
the article, "Treasure
Hunting,", in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article
"Life
Begins with Li (Lithium),"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
SQM began
paying a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592
per share, with US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11,
2011.
|
|
Sohu
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$81.67
$47.42
(10.1.11)
|
$60.72
|
$109.37
$46.99
|
-25%
&
+29%
|
|
Read
"The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue
9. Sohu is a Chinese mega portal, with gaming, news, search
and TV.
|
|
iShares
S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
SOXX
|
$44.22
|
$51.00
|
$64.19
$44.17
|
+16%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and
2010 Company of the Year
from Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$24.83
$7.14
(10.1.10)
|
$9.41
|
$23.36
$7.14
|
-62%
&
+32%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3. Announces
3Q results on Nov. 3, 2011.
2Q 2011
earnings on August 9, 2011. $592.3 million in revenue, an
increase of 54% over the previous quarter. Net loss of $148
million. $246 million in cash on hand. Long term debt and
liabilities of $1.8 billion.
August
29, 2011: Akuo Solar, a subsidiary of Paris-based Akuo Energy,
has ordered 75,000 high efficiency SunPower solar panels for
Akuo's planned 24-megawatt solar development. The development
consists of two power plants that will be located in the Provence-Alps-Cotes
d'Azur Region in the South of France. Construction on the
project has begun and is expected to be completed by the end
of 2011.
Sunpower
panels are the most efficient in the world and have powered
Solar Decathlon winning teams. Maryland, the 2011 Solar Decathlon
winner, used Sanyo solar panels, but needed six more panels
to compete in the energy contests with #2 ranked Purdue (which
used Sunpower).
Ford
and Sunpower inked a deal on Aug. 10, 2011 to offer rooftop
solar panels to Ford Focus owners, offering them to "Drive
Green for Life."
|
|
Suntech
Power Holdings (solar)
|
No
|
STP
|
$14.26
$1.77
(10.1.11)
|
$2.66
|
$15.55
$1.77
|
-86%
&
+50%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic
(PV) module manufacturer. P/E on 8.31.11 was 3.50.
Suntech
began manufacturing in the US on Oct. 8, 2010, at its Goodyear,
AZ HQ. Dept. of Energy Secretary Steven
Chu visited Suntech and reported on it
to The National Press.
2Q 2011
earnings were reported on August 22, 2011. Total net revenues
were $831 million in the second quarter of 2011, representing
a sequential decrease of 5.3%, and an increase of 32.9% year-over-year.
Net loss was -$259.5 million. " "Operationally, we implemented
a number of initiatives to improve our supply flexibility
and lower our cost structure. Specifically, we discontinued
a long term agreement with MEMC and expanded internal wafer
capacity to 1.2GW. We also continued to drive solar innovation
with the launch of two new high performance product lines
that we are shipping in large-scale today," according to Dr.
Zhengrong Shi, Chairman and CEO.
9.28.11:
Suntech announced that they had delivered 150,000 solar panels
for utility-scale electricity generation by Cupertino Electric
for Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) under the
utility's five-year, 500MW clean energy initiative.
8.24.11:
Suntech will supply 28.7MW (DC) of solar panels for a 23MW
(AC) solar power plant in Niland, California for SunPeak.
|
|
Tesla
|
No
|
TSLA
|
$23.73
|
$28.71
|
$36.42
$14.98
|
+21%
|
|
Read
"Tesla," "Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car (Again)?" and "Tesla
Trades on NASDAQ" from Vol. 8, issue 11,
Vol. 8, issue 10 and Vol. 7, issue 7. 3Q results will be
released on 11.2.11.
Should
you buy now? Very volatile stock. Also, beta models of the
new sedan are just rolling out and production is in the early
phase. It's at a former Toyota factory, which places a lot
of ducks in a row, however, ramping up for production is something
that can be wrought with delays and other unexpected kinks.
Combine that with competition for the Leaf and the Volt, and
you have a more vulnerable company. The Leaf is lower-priced,
but also has a lot less battery power and distance. The Volt
is a hybrid, more like the Prius. However, the Volt won the
2011 Car of the Year Award! Tesla has a very strong board
and management team and a great car in the Roadster. Advance
reviews of the S sedan are gushing.
3Q results
were announced on Nov. 2, 2011. Revenues increased to $58
million, Double the revenue of a year ago. Net loss was $59
million.
Cash = $318 million. Long term debt: $134 million. Total cash
burn from inception to date is $396 million.
Toyota
and Tesla announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build
electric RAV4s beginning in 2012. The production line will
be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric powertrains will
be shipped by Tesla from California.
Very
exciting car company. But very early stage, and may be in
need of raising more and more dough to stay on production
track before the RAV4 and Model S hit stores. Be careful.
|
|
Trina
Solar LTD.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$27.92
$5.58
(10.1.11)
|
$8.05
|
$31.89
$5.58
|
-71%
&
+44%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. 2Q earnings will be announced on August 23,
2011 at 8:00 a.m. ET. P/E on 8.31.11 was 3.83.
2Q earnings
on 8.23.11. Net revenues were $579.5 million, an increase
of 5.2% sequentially and 56.3% year-over-year. Net income
was $11.8 million, compared to net income of $47.7 million
in the first quarter of 2011 and $38.7 million in the second
quarter of 2010.
"In the
third quarter, we expect a significant reduction in our manufacturing
costs due in large part to recently completed renegotiation
of the majority of our long term polysilicon feedstock and
wafer agreements," according to Mr. Jifan Gao, Chairman and
CEO of Trina Solar. He continued, "We are very encouraged
by China's solar feed-in-tariff updates announced on August
1, which we believe reflect the improved economics and efficiency
of solar energy. Since our recently announced agreements to
supply two large-scale solar projects in Qinghai, we have
seen increased opportunities to expand our domestic shipment
allocations as the market expands."
|
|
U.S.
Gold
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.57
$3.75
(10.1.11)
|
$4.79
|
$9.87
$0.50
|
-24%
&
+28%
|
|
Note:
U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold
exploration company, based in Nevada and Mexico which has
begun the process of filing for production permits, with a
goal of producing gold by 2014.
Added
back to the Hot List on June 8, 2011 (in a special Subscriber
Only Alert). On June 14, 2011 the Company announced that Mr.
McEwen proposed to combine the Company with Minera Andes to
create a high growth, low-cost, mid-tier silver producer focused
on the Americas.
On August
31, 2011, U.S. Gold announced: that the Company has approved
Phase 1 development of its El Gallo project in Sinaloa, Mexico,
with mining expected to commence mid-2012. Phase 1 will focus
on the permitted satellite gold deposits at the project and
is expected to produce 30,000 ounces of gold per year after
initial ramp up. This decision is expected to generate cash
flows approximately two years earlier than originally planned
at a minimal capital cost and will help fund Phase 2, which
is forecasted to produce an additional 5 million ounces of
silver per year, beginning in 2014.
U.S.
Gold began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov.
2, 2010, and has a goal of qualifying for the S&P 500
by 2015. US Gold explores for gold and silver in the Americas
and is advancing its El Gallo Project in Mexico and its Gold
Bar Project in Nevada towards production. US Gold's shares
are listed on the NYSE and the TSX under the symbol UXG, trading
1.9 million shares daily during the past twelve months. Added
to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global
Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago Board of Options
Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
U.S.
Gold was the 2009
Company of the Year. The article was
featured in the October 2009 ezine, Vol. 6, issue 10.
|
|
Veeco
|
Yes
|
VECO
|
$42.74
$24.01
(10.1.11)
|
$25.40
|
$56.05
$24.01
|
-41%
&
+6%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and
2010 Company of the Year
from Vol. 7, issue 12. VECO was added on 7.6.11, with a special
alert sent to subscribers at that time.
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
On 8.30.11,
Veeco opened a new tech center in Taiwan. According to John
R. Peeler, Veeco's Chief Executive Officer, "The TTC
is the newest part of our significant expansion in Asia that
we announced last fall. Veeco will invest over $30 million
to dramatically expand our Asia footprint to help customers
continue to accelerate the pace of adoption of LEDs for consumer
electronics and solid-state lighting, including additional
new R&D/demo and process support sites in Shanghai, China
(opened May 2011) and Seoul, Korea (opening in 2012)."
Reported
2Q on 7.28.11. $265 million in revenue for the 2Q, up 19%
from a year ago, when revenue was compared to $221.4 million.
Net income of $19.2 million, compared to $50 million last
year.
What
happened to the income? Veeco took a $51 million loss in asset
impairment and restructuring charges related to the CIGS Solar
Systems business. This unprofitable business will be discontinued.
Assets and personnel have been transferred to the College
of Nanoscale Science and Engineering (CNSE).
Quarter-end
backlog was $558.2 million. Cash on hand is $198 million.
John
R. Peeler, Veeco's Chief Executive Officer, commented, "LED
& Solar revenues were $219 million, including $206 million
in MOCVD, and Data Storage revenues were $46 million, the
highest quarterly level in five years. Veeco met our quarterly
guidance, yet timing of revenue continues to be impacted by
the longer order-to-revenue cycle times associated with the
high percentage of MOCVD business currently coming from China,
primarily due to customer facility readiness and credit tightening."
Mr. Peeler
added, "We have seen spectacular customer reaction to
our new MaxBright MOCVD system -- in the second quarter we
booked over $100 million of MaxBright systems -- 40% of our
total MOCVD bookings. We believe customers are clearly recognizing
that MaxBright is simply the best tool on the market to drive
down LED manufacturing costs."
During
the second quarter, under its Board authorized share buy-back
program, Veeco purchased $7.8 million in stock at an average
price of $46.91 per share. Veeco also completed the redemption
of its outstanding Convertible Subordinated Notes for $98.1
million aggregate principal amount and completed the purchase
of a privately-held company which supplies certain critical
components to our MOCVD business for $28.3 million. Veeco
purchased an additional $71.9 million of stock, at an average
price of $42.21 per share, so far during the month of July
(as of 7/26/11). Since the $200 million buy-back program was
authorized last August, Veeco has repurchased a total of 3
million shares for $117.8 million.
|
|
VMWare
|
No
|
VMW
|
$77.90
|
$97.19
|
$111.43
$71.04
|
+24%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform"
Vol. 7, issue 4.
Announced
2Q results on July 19, 2011: Revenues were $921 million, an
increase of 37% from the second quarter of 2010. Net income
for the second quarter was $220 million, or $0.51 per diluted
share, compared to $75 million, or $0.18 per diluted share,
for the second quarter of 2010. Cash, cash equivalents and
short-term investments were $3.7 billion and unearned revenue
was $2.1 billion as of June 30, 2011.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$92.34
|
$112.76
|
$138.58
$92.34
|
+22%
|
|
Issued
it's half-year results on May 4, 2011. Go to Westpac.com.au
to access. Australian banks fared far better than the rest
of the world banks. So did Canadian banks. P/E is good, but
the debt is quite high, at 4.34 X equity (on 5.15.11).
Key financial
highlights (comparisons are with prior year):
Cash
earnings $3.2 billion, up 7%
Statutory
net profit of $4 billion, up 38%
Westpac's
Chief Executive Officer, Gail Kelly, said: ""Key
indicators were generally positive during the half with the
economy generating good growth, low unemployment and moderate
inflation. Despite this, both consumers and businesses remain
relatively cautious and while confidence is expected to pick-up,
lending growth is likely to be moderate in the immediate future."
|
|
Youku
|
Yes
|
YOKU
|
$25.06
$15.88
|
$20.54
|
$69.95
$15.88
|
-19%
&
+28%
|
|
Read
"The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue
9. Youku is the Chinese Netflix and YouTube.
|
Deleted
Companies 2010-2011:
Deleted
1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10:
Galaxy Resources with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21%
gains. Deleted 9.13.10: American Superconductor (flat)
& AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster busted out
in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10:
ENER1 was deleted with flat performance. 11.11.10: ENER1 was deleted
with 37% gains. VECO was deleted with 2% & 41% gains. 12.1.10:
KLIC was deleted with 12% gains. 1.14.11: Advanced Materials was
deleted with 30% gains. 2.2.11: BEARX with losses of 14%. 2.14.11:
U.S. Gold with 14.5X gains. 6.13.11: EPU with flat performance.
9.7.11: Deleted Eldorado Gold with 38% & 52% gains.
Deleted
Companies 2008-2009:
60 winners
and 9 losers.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
None
Stocks
to Watch
Some
of these are great companies that we're thinking of adding to the
Hot List and some are stinkers we're thinking of adding to the Cooling
Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which! Note
that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List.
Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company.
Never pay retail!
Recent
Additions:
None
Recent
Deletions:
SPDR
S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) moved to Hot List
on 10.1.11
Canadian
Imperial Commerce Bank (CM) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
FMC Corp. (FMC) moved to the Hot List on 10.1.11
Netflix (NFLX) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
Sociedad Minera & Chimica (SQM) moved to the Hot List on 10.1.11
iShares S&P Tech Semiconductors (SOXX) moved to Hot List on
10.1.11
Tesla Motor Company (TSLA) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
VMWare (VMW) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to List
|
Price
11.2.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Amazon
|
No
|
AMZN
|
$168.07
|
$216.00
|
$246.71
$151.40
|
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a good price. P/E ratio is very high, at 109 on October
14, 2011.
|
|
Apple
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$351.99
|
$398.65
|
$422.86
$277.77
|
|
|
One of
the largest company in the world -- trading #1 spot with ExxonMobil
since August 10, 2011. Buy at a good price. RIP Steve Jobs.
Tim Cook, current COO, has been running company many times
over the years during Jobs'.
4Q Results
announced on Tues., Oct. 18, 2011.
How much
of a threat are the competing Smart Phones to the iPhone?
Since iPhones and iPads are primary drivers of revenue for
Apple, it pays to compare...
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$124.96
|
$140.75
|
$165.96
$94.33
|
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a god price. P/E 90 on 10.14.11.
|
|
Berkshire
Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.B
|
$85.30
|
$77.49
|
$87.65
$65.35
|
|
|
Warren
Buffett's company has more exposure to the bank bailouts (Wells
Fargo and American Express to name just two) than most investors
realize. And, contrary to what he used to say, the company
engages in active trading and hedging. Plus, he's 82 and doesn't
have a clear, young successor in place. (Last one, David Sokol,
had to resign on March 30, 2011.)
2Q 2011
(announced on 8.5.11): Net earnings $2.7 billion, compared
to $3.074 billion a year ago.
|
|
Eldorado
Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$21.39
|
$19.54
|
$22.12
$13.93
|
|
|
Read
"Investing
in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9.
Eldorado
is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively
growing businesses in
Brazil
China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. They are
one of the lowest cost pure gold
producers.
Produced
162,429 ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost of
$397 per ounce (total cash cost $477 per ounce). Sold 162,164
ounces of gold at an average realized price of $1,510 per
ounce.
Net income
was $74.9 million, compared to $55.7 million a year ago.
|
|
iShares
JP Morgan Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EMB
|
$104.63
|
$110.12
|
$114.14
$103.57
|
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
First
Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$47.23
|
$175.45
$53.05
|
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again," article
in Vol. 5, iss 4. 2Q 2011 earnings on 8.5.11: Sales and income
are both down. Net sales were $533 million in the quarter,
a decrease of $34.5 million from the first quarter of 2011,
primarily due to lower average selling prices (ASPs) as solar
photovoltaic (PV) policy uncertainties in Italy, Germany and
France adversely impacted demand in the second quarter. Second
quarter net income per fully diluted share was $0.70, down
from $1.33 in the first quarter of 2011 and $1.84 in the second
quarter of 2010. Quarter over quarter, the net income decrease
was primarily driven by lower ASPs and a higher tax rate,
partially offset by higher volume sold. Year over year, the
net income decrease was principally driven by lower ASPs and
increased investment in the Utilities Systems Business and
research and development.
CFO Jens
Meyerhoff is leaving to "self-reflect" on his next steps.
First
Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer
sunlight into useable energy. First Solar's sales are flat,
whereas sales with the silicon-based solar suppliers are up
80-100% year over year. The shift to silicon is occurring
for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs
are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn't as abundant
or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article
for more details. They still list CdTe as the semiconductor
of choice on their website, citing old data from 2004 that
this is a good strategy. Be forewarned!
|
|
Ford
Motor Co.
|
No
|
F
|
$14.55
|
$11.17
|
$18.97
$9.34
|
|
|
Read
"How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive,
but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any
investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler
and GM are present here -- lots of debt, pensions and Other
Post Employment Benefit Obligations. Ford built cars that
won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest). And
for that they get a big bravo.
Ford's
total debt is over $100 billion and their credit rating is
below investment grade, at BB- (as of 2.1.11, by S&P),
with a Positive Outlook.
|
|
General
Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$33.11
|
$23.22
|
$39.48
$20.16
|
|
|
Read
"One
Very Hot IPO," from the
September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9. Chevy Volt won Motor
Trend's 2011 Car of the Year, but can GM regain market
share from worldwide market leader, Toyota? GM may have shed
a lot of debt in the bankruptcy filing, however, the company's
profit margins remain very slim at 4%.
|
|
Kulicke
& Soffa
|
No
|
KLIC
|
$8.71
|
$9.56
|
$12.72
$5.27
|
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010
and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. Announced
3Q earnings on August 2, 2011.
3Q earnings
report on 8.2.11: Net revenue of $294.4 million and net income
of $70.7 million, higher than expected. 4Q is expected to
soften tremendously -- to $155-$175 million revenue...
Cash,
cash equivalents and investments increased to $335.5 million
up $53.7 million from the prior quarter.
|
|
iShares
MSCI Indonesia Index
|
No
|
EIDO
|
$30.72
|
$29.83
|
$32.92
$22.80
|
|
|
Read
"Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
LinkedIn
|
No
|
LNKD
|
$92.43
|
$84.50
|
$122.70
$45.00
|
|
|
Read
my article, "Should
You Link In?" from the June 1, 2011
ezine, Vol. 8, issue. 6.
|
|
Oracle
|
No
|
ORCL
|
$33.47
|
$32.29
|
$36.50
$21.24
|
|
|
Read
"Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google" from the February
1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2.
|
|
Orocobre
|
No
|
OROCF
|
$2.35
|
$1.26
|
$4.03
$0.97
|
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol.
7, issue 2. This is an Australian lithium company with a deal
with Toyota to supply lithium for lithium ion batteries. Began
trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) in June of 2010 and
trades on the Australian Stock Exchange as well.
Orocobre
issued almost 7 million new shares in the price range of $3.20
Canadian on Feb. 25, 2011 to fund ongoing design work, pilot
plan operation and other activities in relation to the construction
of the Salar de Olaroz.
Recent
trouble: On March 7, 2011, Orocobre announced that the Argentinian
government is slowing down the permit process for the proposed
lithium potash project in NW Argentina. On March 4, 2011,
the local government declared lithium to be a strategic mineral
resource and introduced a secondary approvals process. According
to the decree, additional approval will be required for both
the Olaroz lithium-potash project for which the Company has
already received approval of its development and production
EIS, and the Cauchari lithium-potash project, for which an
exploration EIS has been submitted. This new process does
not affect the Company's program at Salinas Grandes, which
is predominantly located in Salta Province.
The company
is based in Brisbane, Queensland, which had extensive flooding.
The company's projects are located in South America, so it's
possible that the floods won't impact this company severely.
Lithium production isn't projected to begin until 2012 and
with the new developments in Argentina, this could be further
delayed.
Orocobre
Limited is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and
Toronto Stock Exchange (ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) and is the leading
lithium-potash developer in the lithium and potassium rich
Puna region of Argentina. For further information, please
visit www.orocobre.com.
|
|
iShares
MSCI All Peru Index Fund
|
No
|
EPU
|
$40.73
|
$39.39
|
$51.35
$29.79
|
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 8. Left-winger Ollanta Humala, a career military
man who has moderated his anti-capitalist views since narrowly
losing the 2006 election, won the Presidential election and
has become the President-Elect.
Humala
notes that Peru has had economic growth of 7-8% for 8 years.
He calls the Peruvian economy "solid." While Humala
promises that the poor will receive more of the country's
profits, he also says that his central bank will be run by
an independent and that he wants to work closely with the
United States. Check out this video interview with Humala
by Reuters.
|
|
Priceline
|
No
|
PCLN
|
$508.15
|
$493.64
|
$561.88
$220.00
|
|
|
Read
the article "The
Priceline Negotiator,"
from Vol. 7, issue 10. Great company. Don't want people buying
in high, hoping to sell higher. And if you made a healthy
gain, considering capturing profits.
2Q results
were announced on August 4, 2011. High P/E of 35.
|
|
Ross
Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$86.63
|
$83.11
$48.71
|
|
|
Read
"Discount
Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue
6. Sales have been growing steadily in this discount marketplace,
especially given the "jobless recovery." Profit
margins are slim, however, 7%.
|
|
Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$51.19
|
$41.92
|
$66.70
$18.43
|
|
|
Read
"Diamonds
or Scrapbooking,"
from the November 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11. PE is 80
-- far too high for our taste -- especially for a company
that posted a loss in the most recent quarter.
2Q 2011
results on July 27, 2011. Net revenues increased 62% year-over-year
to $75.8 million (largely due to an acquisition). GAAP net
loss was ($3.6) million, compared to ($5.9) million in Q2
2010. At Juen 30, 2911, cash and cash equivalents totaled
$75.9 million, less than half of what the company had on March
31, 2011 -- at $216.3 million.
|
|
Toyota
Motor Company
|
No
|
TM
|
$71.84
|
$64.84
|
$93.74
$64.00
|
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue
2 and "One
Very Hot IPO" from Vol.
7, issue 9. 1Q results on August 2, 2011. Net revenues were
down 29.4% from the same quarter a year ago. Net income fell
off of a cliff -- down -99.4%, to $1,160 million yen from
$190,466 million yen a year ago.
TMC Senior
Managing Officer Takahiko Ijichi said: "In Japan and
North America where the effects of the earthquake were particularly
serious, vehicle sales declined substantially. In the Asia
region, despite the impact of the earthquake, we were able
to maintain a similar level of vehicle sales as the previous
year in countries led by Indonesia."
FYI:
Honda results on 8.1.11 dropped off of a cliff, too and so
did the Honda share price (while Toyota share price stayed
relatively strong). Net income for Honda decreased 88%, down
to $394 million. Sales were down 27.4%, at $21.2 billion.
Toyota
and Tesla announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build
electric RAV4s beginning in 2012. The production line will
be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric powertrains will
be shipped by Tesla from California.
Toyota
continues to be the #1 automaker and a fave among greenies.
The industry is vulnerable, however, and investors should
be aware of the price and that 26 P/E is high for auto manufacturers,
though if Toyota does succeed in capturing the EV market,
the growth could be impressive.
|
|
Wells
Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$32.25
|
$25.33
|
$34.25
$22.58
|
|
|
3.7 million
people are over 90 days late on their mortgage. Additionally,
WFC credit card holders report getting charged 29.9% interest
rates, while class action lawsuits against WFC continue to
mount. However, the Feds keep giving the banks money and allowing
banks to carry their losses off the books. Which means that
earnings reports are fairy tales.
See "Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4,
issue 12.
|
|
Wynn
Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$147.98
|
$132.54
|
$172.58
$85.80
|
|
|
Check
out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in
Vol. 5, issue 10.
Wynn
is a great marketer and capital raiser. However, Vegas is
one of the worst places for real estate in the U.S. and the
city has taken a huge hit as a convention center as well.
Be very careful here. The Hangover sparked a Vegas renaissance
last year. The new Wynn pool scene is hot. Buying a vulnerable
company with a high price to earnings ratio is not.
Increased
cash flow has improved Wynn's debt rating. On July 8, 2011,
Fitch raised its rating on Wynn Resorts Ltd and subsidiaries,
including Wynn Las Vegas LLC and Wynn Resorts (Macau) SA to
"BB" from "BB-" and it gave a positive outlook for the ratings.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share
Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
ALERT: We
are in a pre-election year. The markets have been volatile and down-trending,
but oil prices have backed off and GDP growth is expected to pick
up in the coming quarters. So, even though consumer sentiment is
down, now may not be the best time to initiate a short position.
Some of the stocks on the list below are here simply to keep you
from buying them high.
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
None
DELETIONS:
None
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
11.2.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
News
Corp.
|
No
|
NWSA
|
$16.42
$17.27
|
$17.20
|
$18.35
$11.91
|
+5% &
flat
|
|
Read
my article, "Murdoch's
Humble Pie ," from the August 1, 2011
ezine, Vol. 8, issue. 8.
|
|
Rochester
Municipals Bond Fund
|
No
|
RMUNX
|
$14.86
$16.02
(10.1.11)
|
$15.88
|
$16.91
$14.49
|
+6% &
-2%
|
|
Read
"Bond
Beautification Project" from Vol.
7, issue 10 and "Bonds,
Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster,"
from Vol. 7, issue 9.
|
|
Taubman
Centers
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$61.32
(7.15.11)
|
$61.60
|
$62.63
$21.85
|
+146%
&
flat
|
|
Read
the article, "Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009. 2Q earnings on July
19, 2011:
As of
June 30, the loans on both The Pier Shops and Regency Square
are in default. The company is working with the respective
special servicers to transfer title of both properties as
soon as possible, however, the holding periods remain uncertain
and could be extended periods. The non-cash impact of owning
these centers (including anticipated default interest) is
expected to result in an incremental FFO charge of approximately
$(0.20) per diluted share for The Pier Shops and $(0.04) per
diluted share for Regency Square for the full year 2011.
CFO dumped
$240,000 in shares on 8.1.11.
Liabilities
exceed assets by about $500 million.
Over
the past six months, TCO has distributed "dividends in
excess of net income," amounting to almost $2 billion.
Net income in the 2Q was $20 million.
Paid
down debt with a new stock issuance.
Malls
are not doing well in general, with consumer spending off
in the U.S.. Taubman is doing some very creative accounting
and funding tricks and using some potentially misleading language
on their earning reports. Such as, "We've now experienced
an unprecedented six quarters of double digit sales increases,"
said Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and chief executive
officer of Taubman Centers. "This is contributing to
a robust leasing environment in our centers... The fundamentals
of our business are extremely strong."
Taubman
Centers is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development,
leasing and management of regional and super regional shopping
centers. Taubman's 26 U.S. owned, leased and/or managed properties,
the most productive in the industry, serve major markets from
coast to coast. Taubman Centers is headquartered in Bloomfield
Hills, Michigan and its Taubman Asia subsidiary is headquartered
in Hong Kong.
Mall
owners are hit with the quadruple whammy of sluggish retail
sales, high turnover, lower occupancy and declining real estate
value.
|
|
Time
Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$33.57
|
$38.62
$27.62
|
+37%
|
|
Read
the article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
|
|
PowerShares
Treasury Bill Index Fund
|
No
|
PLW
|
$30.02
$32.78
(10.1.11)
|
$31.94
|
$33.01
$26.30
|
+10%
&
-5%
|
|
Read
"Don’t
Get Fooled Again," from Vol. 7, issue
8. When interest rates rise, bonds and bond funds fall in
value. Time to find another "safe" place for your
assets. Read "The
High Price of Questionable Credit"
from the September 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 9.
|
Deleted
in 2010-2011:
Deleted
AMAT on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be
double or more). 8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%),
MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT (-20%) -- all for gains. Deleted MGM
9.13.10 for 61% gains. Deleted Tesla on 1.14.11 with 20% & 24%
gains. 3.1.11: Deleted Shutterfly with12% gain (cooling off gain)
and Sears with mixed results (up & down). 3.11.11: Deleted PIMCO
Muni Bond fund with flat performance. Deleted Amazon, American Express,
Capital One, Ford, Kulicke & Soffa, Netflix, Taubman, VMWare
with mixed results. Deleted Apple, Baidu, Berkshire Hathaway, Intel,
Transocean & Wells Fargo with losses. 4.28.11: ABAT with 51%
gains. 6.13.11: LinkedIn was deleted with 25% gains, Orocobre with
18% gains, Shutterfly with 20% gains, Priceline with mixed performance
and eBay was deleted with flat performance. 6.23.11: Yahoo was deleted
with 12% gains. 8.15.11: LinkedIn with 10-11% gains, Netflix with
-6-18% gains, Priceline with 6% gains, Tesla with 7% gains. Wynn
Resorts was deleted with mixed results. 8.31.11: Toyota was deleted
with gains of 14%.
Deleted
2008-2009:
19 gainers
and no losers.
Recently
Deleted:
None
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Investor
Educational Retreats, Green Conferences and Scorpio Birthdays. Ouch!
Hot!
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add
online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are
booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
FOMC
Meeting
November
1-2, 2011
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve
policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting November 1-2, 2011.
OPEC
World Oil Outlook
Tuesday,
November 8th, 2011
The WOO is an annual in-depth analytical review of various scenarios
for the short-, medium- and long-term of the oil industry.
Investor
Edu Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
November
11-13, 2011
In 2007, the Dow was at 14,000; in 2000, NASDAQ was at 5,000 (more
than double what it is today). Buy and hold doesn't work. Learn
the strategies that the pros use. Natalie Pace makes it easy as
a pie chart in a 3-day boardroom retreat. Only a few seats remain.
Call 310-430-2397 to register now.
The
Golden Motorcycle Gang book release
Friday,
November 11th, 2011
"We are living at a critical moment in human history. Our goal is
to provide readers with both entertainment & inspiration to
help us find our own specific connection to assisting in the POSITIVE
SHIFT." Author Bill Gladstone.
Opportunity
Green Conference, LA, CA
Friday,
November 11th, 2011
Opportunity Green 2009 is a 2-day event that brings together the
most innovative leaders in sustainability and promotes disruptive
change. Discussions. Workshops. Valuable insights. A must-attend
for any Greenie.
Occupy
Wall Street Radio Show
Wednesday,
November 16th, 2011
9:00AM through 9:30AM ET
The easiest and most immediate way to make your voice heard is to
stop investing in corrupt companies and start supporting companies
you love. It's easier to do than you know. Learn how in this show!
Call-in: (347) 215-7305.
Play
the
Billionaire Game
Thursday,
November 17th, 2011
9:00AM through 9:30AM ET
Call-in: (347) 215-7305. How would you live if you had all the money
in the world? You cannot create the life of your dreams if you cannot
even imagine it. So, read chapter 8 of You Vs. Wall Street
and then join Natalie Pace to play the Billionaire Game.
Jerry
West Book Signing. Santa Monica, CA
Thursday,
November 17th, 2011
4:30PM through 6:00PM PT
Join Jerry West, a 14-time NBA all star, as he discusses his new
book, West by West, My Charmed, Tormented Life.
GDP
3Q 2011 (2nd Estimate)
Tuesday,
November 22nd, 2011
8:30AM through 8:45AM ET
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov)
releases its second estimate on GDP growth in the 3rd Quarter of
2011.
Thanksgiving
Thursday,
November 24th, 2011
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday,
December 13th, 2011
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve
policy in the U.S.
Winter
Solstice
Thursday,
December 22nd, 2011
The depth of winter!
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
|
|
|