Vol.3 Issue 1 January 1st, 2006
Send comments and suggestions. or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Month:
"The long-standing Wall Street tradition of ending the show with a bang is in full swing with the reprise of the How to Put Lipstick on a Pig self-help video. This is the award-winning feature that details how to leave them smiling and cheering at years end, after ten months of merciless whip sawing and no tangible results."

Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter
From his article, "Gold Fever, the Santa Rally and Beating a Flat Market."

 



Myspace Conquers Google; Takes on World.
Exclusive Q&A with MySpace co-founders Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson. by Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com™

Tom Anderson (President) and Chris DeWolfe (CEO)
Photo Credit: Mark Robert Halper Photography

NataliePace.com's 2006 Company of the Year: MySpace

NataliePace.com's 2006 Executives of the Year:
Chris DeWolfe, CEO, MySpace and
Tom Anderson, President, MySpace

 

 

 

 

 

 


MySpace has surpassed Google, and is currently ranked as the number three web site, in terms of page views and user time online, just behind Yahoo and MSN (source: comScore Media Metrix). With 45,579,475 registered users (as of 12.28.2005), and increasing at 160,000 people per day, MySpace receives 12.5 billion page views per month and is transforming today's popular culture and digital lifestyle. All that in just two years of operations.

Nov-05 Unique Visitors (000) Total Pages Viewed (MM) Average Minutes Per Visitor
Total Internet: Total Audience 169,747 454,480 1,547.0
Yahoo! Sites 125,038 43,345 260.1
MSN-Microsoft Sites 115,526 19,821 182.3
Google Sites 90,889 6,736 30.6
MYSPACE.COM 26,684 12,511 78.0

Source: comScore Media Metrix
Audience: All Persons at U.S. Home/Work/College-University Locations

Numbers like that can launch a multi-billion dollar IPO, and indeed, in early 2005 it looked like MySpace's owners, Intermix Media, were positioning MySpace to be the Cinderella IPO of 2006. By September 30, 2005, however, in one of the most nimble, noncompetitive acquisitions ever, Fox Interactive Media, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of News Corporation, bagged MySpace (and its parent company, Intermix Media) for just $629 million (including the buy out of preferred shareholders and unvested stock options).

How does the Internet's hottest new property get scooped up for a song? Although MySpace is mixing it up with the giants on the Internet, it's parent company, Intermix, was slogging through a series of scandals in the summer of 2005. Indeed, when News Corporation came calling in May 2005, Intermix Media had just been slapped with a lawsuit for AdWare and SpyWare by Eliot Spitzer's office and the Intermix market capitalization had sunk to $137 million. In light of the lawsuit, lack of investor confidence and reduced cash position of Intermix, the News Corporation offer of $629 million was considered by many financial professionals at the time to be generous. According to Jim Moglia, Executive Managing Director, Harris Nesbitt, "Having a stable bidder at a price that was high for the time was a good deal."

Since the Fox Interactive, Inc. acquisition, MySpace, which was never named in the Adware/Spyware lawsuit, has continued to be on a tear, expanding its services, adding new users in the core advertising demographic of 16-34 year olds, and attracting those users to spend more time online.

Will MySpace be the Mother Lode Rupert Murdoch has been searching for to attract more investors to News Corp.? Will answering to the "man" kill the independent spirit that attracted teens and bands to MySpace in the first place? Can the co-founders of MySpace, who have taken the company from zero to 160 employees and from zero to 45 million registered users in just two years, hope to compete with experienced executives like Terry Semel (CEO, Yahoo!) and Eric Schmidt (CEO, Google)?

Read NataliePace.com's exclusive Q&A with co-founders, Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson, to discover how these two visionaries have outmaneuvered the competition, survived two owners (Intermix and now News Corp.), created a lifestyle portal that MySpace users, quite frankly, can no longer live without, and plan to expand their revenue, reach and products in 2006.

 

Natalie Pace -- Your new owners at News Corp. have voiced a lot of respect for you and what you have achieved over the past two years. Ross Levinsohn, the President of Fox Interactive Media, is quoted as saying, "To ramp up that quickly with that kind of talent is pretty unique." Andrew Butcher, a spokesperson for News Corp., says that Rupert Murdoch is clearly very impressed. Is this a case of taking ten years of R&D to become an overnight sensation, or was it really that easy?

Chris DeWolfe - It's a little bit of both.

Tom Anderson -- Actually, things did go remarkably easy for us. I can't say that we struggled for a long time; we only struggled for about a month. When we were about a month into it, I remember thinking, "This may not work out." Just one day, in particular, we saw this huge spike because of people telling each other. It just went crazy from there. We didn't have this big, long struggle behind it. We put it up and it got popular very quickly.

Chris DeWolfe -- One of the major reasons it worked so well is that we had a very experienced management team. We've worked together for the last seven to eight years. With respect to timing, when we launched the site, social networking began to take off and the advertising revenue stream came roaring back. Two of the most interesting points were that we had no content costs and no customer acquisition costs. We had to make sure we had enough money to cover engineering and bandwidth costs, and we were confident that we understood the advertising business.

How do you get 43 million people to find out about your product in less than two years, especially without a spot of advertising and when you didn't buy a list of users?

Chris DeWolfe -- It was really key to create a set of functions that were compelling to our users and an efficient way to use them. Users socialize to figure out what they're going to do on the weekend. They use MySpace to discover new music and post events. Musicians upload their music. People use it for entertainment purposes, or to sell goods in the classified area. MySpace makes what they do in the offline world a) more efficient, or b) more interesting. If you have ten friends, and nine are on MySpace and you're not, you feel pretty left out. People end up joining sooner rather than later. The bigger the network gets, the faster it grows. We are now registering 160,000 people per day with no marketing.

But it starts somewhere. What community did you approach first and how well did your first efforts work?

Tom Anderson -- We didn't do traditional marketing, but we did try to find photographers and creative people because we thought that would make the site more interesting. In the beginning, it was all Los Angeles -- actors, photographers and musicians. That made for an interesting community, and brought in a lot of people. A lot of the early growth, however, had to do with the features and what our competitors were not allowing people to do.

Like what?

Tom Anderson - On Friendster if you were a band and you made a profile, they would delete it. They didn't want bands on their site. If you made a profile for your company or for where you lived or a neighborhood or an idea, you'd get deleted. We recognized from the beginning that we could create profiles for the bands and allow people to use the site any way they wanted to. We didn't stop people from promoting whatever they wanted to promote on MySpace. Some people have fun with it and others try to get more business and sell stuff, like a makeup artist or a band, and we encourage them to do that.

Bands have a huge presence on MySpace. How did you attract over 660,000 artists and bands to MySpace?

Chris DeWolfe -- Tom has a deep passion and understanding for what emerging musicians go through. He understands the frustration. I understood the macro trends of the music business. Labels were signing fewer acts, giving them less time to prove themselves and spending less money on marketing. We saw a need to develop a community for artists to get their music out to the masses. With MySpace, when they went out on tour, they could actually tour nationally. The band might have 20,000 friends on their list and send out a bulletin, saying, "I'm going to be in Austin on Tuesday night. Come see our show." It has allowed bands to make money on music without having a deal.

You can create a professional sounding CD, sell merchandise, and get your touring revenue in and make a living. It gives those artists a longer period of time to develop themselves before they get signed, or make a living without getting signed at all.

It has allowed bands like Fallout Boy to become successful and turn down record deals. Jonathan Daniel, a partner with Crush Music Management and manager of Fallout Boy and Panic, uses MySpace for all of his bands. He says, "For us, they're a great company to work with for two simple reasons. 1. The people that work at MySpace actually like music. We first met Tom when he sent one of our artists, Butch Walker, a message saying he liked his music. 2. People actually like MySpace. We don't have to work to get kids to go to MySpace to listen to music; they go there to listen anyway. Our artists are good and MySpace gives them a platform, like radio or TV, to be heard because it has an audience." Where else in the world can you market to millions of people FOR FREE?

Chris DeWolfe -- In the early days, there were a lot of bands signing up. They told us that they'd like to post their lyrics and tour dates. Users told us what they wanted to see, and we just built it. That's how we do a lot of our updates. We catalog what people tell us that they want. It's not super complicated.

Sifting through the suggestions of 54 million users sounds very labor intensive.

Chris DeWolfe -- Ninety percent of what people write in, we've already heardÉ Conversely, if we build a feature that doesn't work, they tell us and we fix it. It's similar to eBay in the early days. They would have all their sellers convene and ask them what they liked and didn't like and took action on that. That's exactly what we do. We're lucky to have that direct feedback mechanism.

Tom Anderson -- One example is that on the site everyone has access to me. What this means is that if you are a kid, you think that you can write to me. The users have uncommon access to the president who is deciding what the product will be. That's not something that most people would consider a good use of their time, having the users help us, telling us what is wrong with the site, and what's good about it. I'm spending time in the trenches, whereas the president might have hired someone to do that.

That's something that we have to stick to--being in touch with what people on the site want and staying true to our ability to be quick, and not following the business trends and tech trends that are the hot things, but going on our own instincts and feedback.

Most entrepreneurs will not be lucky enough to face all of the challenges that you've faced in the last two years. You've gone from zero to 160 employees. You've raised millions of venture capital. You positioned your company for an IPO, and a few months later were bought by one of the largest media corporations on the planet, in a deal that placed your company as pawn more than the kingpin. That's a lot of turmoil in the captain's quarters to navigate, while at the same time sailing on the Internet scene next to giants like Google, Yahoo and MSN. The MySpace story might rival The Odyssey.

Tom Anderson -- Chris had to deal with that more than I did. I focus more on the product. Chris has kept me shielded from it, and I come in when it is time to make a decision. We discussed an IPO. Ultimately, it feels a lot better to me where we are. With News Corp, we get the opportunity to grow. I think that is the smart thing to do in the long term.

Chris DeWolfe -- I've run businesses before. The other people on my team have worked in senior positions in other businesses. Your partners are the most important things. If you don't have good partners, it can't work. Some of our competition had extremely high turnover. It wrecks the continuity of running the business. You need to have similar sensibilities and people you trust to fill in your weaknesses with strengths that they have. That is underrated. Another trap that people fall into, when you start to grow and there is a little bit of success, is that people get on the soap box, like pundits and venture capitalists, who tell you how to run your business. It's important to be very disciplined in terms of not listening to them. We were resolute to do what our users wanted. Having discipline and saying, "No," is why we ended up being successful.

Ben Horowitz, the CEO of Opsware, says that when you are running a big business, you have to listen to a lot of smart people telling you how stupid you are.

Tom Anderson -- In a way, it's our lack of experience that helps -- definitely for me. The thing I like about Chris is that he's not like all the other people I've met in business. He's able to cut to the chase right away. We don't waste time on things. We didn't sit down and write up this big plan and spread sheets and try to force that imagined plan. We've been quick and nimble on our feet. I was working from common sense. Even though Chris does have that background, he's never been pushing me to that mold and he doesn't follow it himself. So, we are not doing what everyone else is doing. When we were getting popular, people were saying, "Why aren't you doing this or that?" I thought they were ridiculous and they thought I was ridiculous.

Chris DeWolfe - They said that we were trying to do too much -- music, instant messaging, blogs, etc. - and that we should just focus on one of those. That was the antithesis of what we aimed to do. Most of the sites that did that became boring after awhile. With that said, once you chose your product road map, then it becomes very important to focus on the top three to four initiatives and get those things done. Others try to do too many things at one given time. Our overall strategy was to build the next generation portal that would be extremely sticky, and layer those features in and around a social network. At any one time, we focus our developers on the top three to four initiatives, and don't get distracted with what others tell us we ought to do.

Well the buzzwords today are definitely text messaging and pod casting. What are you planning on those fronts?

Chris DeWolfe -- Pod casting is not really that different from streaming music, which we've done for quite a long time. Having a traditional pod cast that people subscribe to -- the hype is ahead of the quality. Pod casting is essentially a download, and you run into copyright issues. What you're left with currently is pod cast talk radio. If it's an established station, like NPR, it's fabulous. The average person having a talk radio show will not be that great. We'll keep our eye out and may undertake it at some point. We have a couple of different ways that people text message one another. There is Instant Messaging on the site. We also have an Internal email product, where people write messages. You can also leave testimonials on your friend's pages.

Let's talk about growth. You launched MySpace Records on November 7, 2005 into a very crowded space at a time when the record companies are getting slaughtered and the new music formats, like Apple's iTunes, are getting challenged on many fronts from Yahoo Music and Napster, to name two.

Chris DeWolfe -- The MySpace web site is the most important thing that we are doing right now. MySpace is a lifestyle brand. It's the first Internet company that is a lifestyle brand and produces life events. We had a festival with five bands where 10,000 people showed up at Dodger stadium.

Aren't ring tones outselling CDs? Can you make money on music in a world where everyone wants a free download?

Chris DeWolfe -- We embrace the ring tone companies. We embrace iTunes, Yahoo Music and the record stores. All of those venues will be distribution partners for us.

Supporting the streaming of tracks of 660,000 bands that use MySpace's music applications FREE OF CHARGE has to be very expensive. Was there ever a time when you thought that you were supporting this monolithic music community and not really getting any return of investment on it?

Chris DeWolfe -- With respect to our return for picking up the hosting/streaming costs, which are not small, we understand the advertising market. We feel comfortable with our ability to monetize the eyeballs on our site. We did not create a revenue model that relies on starving artists and the last ten dollars in their pocket. Advertisers can afford to underwrite the streaming and bandwidth costs. When you go to a MySpace band profile, you see their pictures, their friends, and you can send them a personal message. It almost feels like you're listening to the band in a communal experience. We saw a huge need. From that point, if you can aggregate all of these bands in one space, they are early adopters and trendsetters. By definition, they will bring their fans to MySpace. If you go to a show, ninety percent of the time now, the bands will say, "Come see us on MySpace."

MySpace is streaming never-before-heard confessions from Madonna for her latest album, Confessions on a Dance floor. I'm sure Maverick Records can afford the ads more than Hollywood Undead (the band that Tom found for the first MySpace Records CD). But is MySpace CASH POSITIVE or still a "nosebleed" as critics suggest?

Chris DeWolfe -- I can't talk about that. News Corp. isn't breaking out our revenue and profits. But I can tell you that we are number three in number of ads served on the Internet, which comes to 12% of all ads in the US on the Internet. I'm not suggesting that we are selling at the same price as Yahoo. We sell a lot of ads and we feel very comfortable with our business.

So, there are no plans for cost cutting? Others have critiqued your company for giving your web programmers a view of the Pacific Ocean, when it is much cheaper to farm out at least some of the labor to BangaloreÉ

Chris DeWolfe -- We have a great deal on office space, and we're at the tip of the iceberg of where MySpace can go again. We want to expand aggressively in wireless and internationally. Doing all of those things will grow our revenue. Now is the time to reach out and to expand. We haven't received pressure to do things differently.

So, the next area of growth is wireless and international. Those application strategies sound auspicious, and challenging. What are your plans for product growth in the near future, outside of MySpace Records?

Chris DeWolfe -- We're always looking for the right opportunities. We are going to be doing some events in Sundance, in conjunction with our independent filmmaker section on MySpace. We'll be doing more festivals, at least one major one over the summer.

I'm sure the MySpace summer music festival will be even more popular than last October's two-year anniversary concert. You've certainly won the allegiance of some great bands and music fans in the U.S. Do you think that MySpace can be as successful at attracting the independent film community?

Tom Anderson -- Another part of my background was that I was in film school. It made a lot of sense to me that the music part of our site would work for filmmakers as well. They'll be able to upload clips. There will be a section where you can watch what they are doing. They'll tell where their screenings are. It took a lot longer than we wanted to because we were growing so fast. For actors, directors and everyone associated with film and television, this will become as big of a resource for them as it has been for musicians.

Google's founders hired Eric Schmidt to run Google, and since then, the company has grown to $127.4 billion market capitalization. Do you imagine a time when the multi-billion dollar executive should come in and run things or, on the contrary, do you think that would be the kiss of death for a hip, young business?

Chris DeWolfe -- We feel really comfortable with our progress. We have huge plans for next year -- international, wireless and expansion into other mediums. We're hiring quickly, but in a controlled manner. We have set a plan that we believe everyone at News Corp. will bite off on. At the end of the day, time will tell. Continuity with senior management is very important. It's been one of the reasons why we've won. If we'd hired a big-time media executive a year ago, we wouldn't be where we are right now. We have a great relationship with our new bosses at News Corp.

Did you get much fallout from your fans, who worried that the renegade, independent spirit of MySpace would be sacrificed if you were answering to "The Man"? MySpace is, among other things, a site of free speech, personal whimsy, cutting edge music and the young.

Tom Anderson -- When this was announced, people were worried. It went away pretty quickly when we didn't change. If anything now, people will see it get better. We have more money to grow, faster bandwidth, and more programmers working on more features. We aren't getting pressure on designing it this or that way. It's our baby on what we want the experience to be. News Corp. has been great about that. I think we're going to continue to do well.

Do you see any other benefits about being part of a large media conglomerate, like News Corp.?

Tom Anderson -- I just came back from a screening at 20th Century Fox and they were asking me what bands to put in the movie.

So, I guess one of the final areas of concern would be predators and pornography on the site. How do you monitor and delete the creeps, and protect the teens that are on MySpace?

Chris DeWolfe -- These issues have been coming up. We're sensitive to it. We've undertaken a lot of different projects, and we're always looking for ways to make the site safer. Wired Safety wrote a bunch of safety tips for us and we put them on our site. We have a rapid response safety team that responds to issues very quickly. We have a team that weeds out anything that is pornographic in nature. Our users and our advertisers hate it.

[Editor's note: Safety Tips are located at the bottom of the MySpace home page.]

MySpace as NataliePace.com's 2006 Company of the Year and Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson as the 2006 Executives of the Year were the easiest calls we, at NataliePace.com™, have ever had to make. Just catch a rising star and hang on while the founders navigate the heavens. In the time it took me to complete this article, another million people registered with MySpace. The new filmmaker's section on MySpace will be introduced at Sundance this month, and launched officially "in the coming months," according to MySpace.

Other articles of interest:
News Corp. Takes on Cyber Space With Acquisition of Myspace.com by Natalie W. Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com.
Myspace: The Next Google. By Natalie Wynne Pace, CEO & Founder, NataliePace.com.


Solar Energy Heats Up.

by Paul Woods. President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

Imagine an industry that grew 67% last year. The biggest problem for most of the companies is meeting demand and some have several years' worth of orders. Even the politicians who rarely have anything good to say about corporations or capitalists have blessed these companies, and Hilary recently called for a greater investment here. Most states will pay part of the cost of purchasing one of these systems and the Federal government will also chip in some incentives. Meanwhile, these companies have barely scratched the surface of what is a huge potential market. To make things more interesting, these stocks are mostly undiscovered by Wall Street analysts and institutional investors.

The Market
Although solar cells were developed about 50 years ago, they were a very expensive way to produce power and had limited use for many decades. However, as costs came down, solar became cost effective for some remote locations not covered by the electricity grid and also became useful in growing third world countries that have a constant problem with power reliability and availability. As production continued to increase, costs came down at about 7% per year until solar began to make sense as an alternative in countries with high electricity generation costs. Add concern over climate change and subsidies in more parts of the world, and demand increased further.

Like a rock rolling down a hill, solar is gaining momentum. For the last five years, this industry has grown at 44%. However, according to Photon International, solar cell production increased 67% to 1256 megawatts in 2004. Not only is this one of the most rapidly growing industries that Wall St. analysts don't follow, but growth is currently accelerating.

These installations translated into global revenues of about $7 billion in 2004. According to industry sources, revenues are expected to increase to around $30 billion by 2010. Given current order rates and the new markets opening up, this expected growth rate of 23% might even turn out to be conservative. Even if these forecasts pan out, solar will still account for less than 1% of overall electricity production in the U.S in 2010. However, once it becomes competitive without subsidies, solar will be poised to take a much larger share of the market for electricity, which is now around $275 billion in the U.S. and several times that on a global basis http://www.eia.doe.gov/.

Why Costs Will Keep Coming Down
Solar cells were developed about 50 years ago and use semiconductor materials to convert sunlight into electricity using a process known as the photovoltaic effect. The percentage of sunlight converted to electricity, known as the efficiency rate, currently tops out at a bit over 20% although there are exotic materials in development that may improve that rate dramatically.

This industry is experiencing the same thing that has happened to many other technologies. As production increases, the cost per unit is coming down due to efficiencies of scale. According to some executives in this industry, the cost of producing solar modules declines by 20% each time output doubles. Given current growth projections, this should translate into cost per unit reductions of about 5% per year. Efficiency rates are also expected to improve a bit, which could add another percentage point or two to annual cost reductions.

Running Out of Sand
Besides bringing down the cost, one of the biggest challenges facing this industry at present is a shortage of the polysilicon used to produce solar panels. As this is essentially made from sand, it's hard to imagine a shortage. However, surging demand for solar panels is getting ahead of the production capacity for polysilicon. As a result, the primary raw material cost for solar panels may keep rising until more capacity comes on in 2008, and solar panel production will probably lag behind orders in the next few years as a result.

Without going into excruciating detail, the production process for solar panels begins with silica and eventually spits out a silicon wafer, which is assembled into modules that become solar panels. However, the process differs at some key steps and several types of wafers result.

Mono-crystalline Wafers
These result when silicon is melted at very high temperatures and grown into a single crystal ingot. These are then sawed into wafers that produce the highest efficiency (18-21%) solar panels with the longest life, up to 45 years. If you have limited roof space and want to generate the maximum amount of power, these are the ticket. However, these are also the most expensive to produce which is a big problem when raw materials costs are also going up. The key players here are Sunpower (SPWR), Shell Solar, GE Solar, Sanyo, BP Solar, Isofoton, Suntech, Motech, Deutsche Cells, and Q-Cells.

Multi-crystalline cells
These don't require an expensive crystal-growing furnace, so cost less to produce. Molten silicon is poured into a square mold to form an ingot, which is then sawed to produce wafers. This produces solar panels with lower efficiency (around 15%), a lifespan of around 25 years, and somewhat lower costs although this process is still relatively expensive. This is the largest segment of the market, ending up in about half the solar panels produced. Key players here are BP Solar, Kyocera, Sharp Solar, Suntech, Motech, Deutsche Cells, and Q-Cells.

Polycrystalline String Ribbon
This eliminates ingot creation and wafer sawing, which eliminates expensive steps in the process. Here, two sets of strings are pulled through molten silicon. The molten silicon spans the strings and then freezes. This string is then cut into wafers using a process that produces significantly less loss of silicon than sawing a wafer from an ingot. This is the current state of the art in solar panel production and some estimate that these companies use 35% less silicon to produce the same amount of power in a solar panel. Improvements are continuing, and according to one company in this industry, this percentage reduction could eventually approach 50%.

When silicon prices are going up and polysilicon is in short supply, this technology offers a huge competitive advantage. While the competition is using 12-14 metric tons of polysilicon and a more expensive process to produce solar panels with an output of one megawatt, this technology requires only about 8.5 tons. The downside is these are a bit less efficient (around 13%) and require more roof space to produce the same amount of power. The two players here are Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and RWE Schott Solar.

Amorphous Silicon Solar Cells
In this process, a thin film of silicon is deposited onto metal, glass or plastic, which can then be produced in a number of different shapes. These use a very small amount of silicon and have little exposure to the shortage as a result. These also have the lowest efficiency (about 8%) so need a much larger area to produce the same amount of power. However, not everyone wants something that looks like a science project on their roof and these can be shaped into roof tiles, eliminating the eyesore factor. The major players here are Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Sanyo, and Kaneka.

Where's Wall Street?
Wall Street and institutional investors are still recovering from a hangover caused by the bursting of the Internet bubble and the resulting bear market from hell. Although the line of people waiting to sue them has finally gone down, the last thing most want to hear about is a group of companies that are losing money and bleeding cash in an industry that needs handouts from the government and more money from investors to survive. With the current oversupply of lawyers, the attitude of most is that the risks of sticking your neck out far outweigh the potential rewards.

Catalysts
The most important thing these companies can do to get the attention of investors is to become profitable. Once that point has been reached, many of the objections to these companies will disappear and analysts will begin to focus on the backlog of orders and industry growth prospects. Continuing to reduce costs and become a technology that's viable without subsidies is probably the other major hurdle. We have a high degree of confidence that both are going to happen, with profitability in the near future for the key players. However, it's pretty tempting to jump the gun.

Everyone remembers the Internet bubble, but most have forgotten that too many institutional investors throwing too much money at too few real companies were the ultimate cause. Although there are some VERY interesting solar stocks trading on the OTC Bulletin Board, Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), and maybe Sunpower (SPWR) look like the only companies the pros would take seriously. All have fairly small stock market capitalizations. Now, imagine banks & trust companies, mutual funds, and investment advisors deciding to invest a portion of their energy holdings in alternative energy, deciding that solar is the most attractive segment, and throwing all that money at two or three companiesÉ.

Sorry, the greed gland started flowing a bit. Actually, there's another potential catalyst that isn't that far fetched. ThereÔs a great deal of angst over global climate change in some circles and these stocks are now about as politically correct as you can get in the stock market. Public retirement plans in blue states have a history of meddling in the investment process for any number of politically correct reasons and it wouldn't be surprising to see at least some of them mandate that a small portion of their assets be invested in alternative energy.

The Companies
At present, we've found 10 publicly traded companies that derive all or a significant portion of their business from solar, some of which are traded on the OTC Bulletin Board. We expect a few new solar companies to come public each year, as there are some very intriguing solar technologies in the development stage. However, for the time being, Evergreen Solar appears to be the pick of the litter with its breakthrough technology, enormous backlog, triple-digit business growth, and huge potential market. We'd like to see profits also, but expect those to come soon enough.

As disclosed previously, Odyssey Advisors has already invested in Evergreen Solar for selected clients. We do NOT recommend this company for the risk averse, and suggest that everyone do their own research before making any investment decision.

 

Paul Woods is the President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equities and fixed income. He can be contacted at www.odysseyadvisors.com or 310.568.4700.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Copyright © 2005 by Odyssey Advisors LLC


Shysters and Scam Artists: They Seduce You, Get You Drunk on Emotions and Then Take Your Money.

And They Show Up On Your Doorstep Every Day. Read the Q&A with Economic Contrarian Mike Norman and Natalie Pace to Discover the Culprit.

Michael Norman, the Economic Contrarian
photo: BizRadioNetwork.net

Economic Contrarian Mike Norman, host of his own BizRadioNetwork show, interviewed top stock picker Natalie Pace on Tuesday, December 20, 2005. The two respected money pundits elaborated on how to research, rather than gamble, identified the source of most bad investments, and offer tips on how to make fabulous returns in even a seemingly slow economy.

Mike opened the show with one of Natalie's quotes: "Here is what poker champs and champion investors have in common: neither gamble."

Mike: Why don't we start there: don't gamble. You find this mentality often in investorsÑthey're playing for the long shot, and that's not the way to go after it. I like to use the analogy of the house, of the actual casino. The casino only has a slight advantage over a gambler, but it knows that over a large number of transactions or bets, it's going to make a fabulous return. Just look at Las Vegas where people spend billions on a hotel and still make money. Investors have to approach the market in this fashion, right?

Natalie: Yes, and another thing to consider is the casino has a slight statistical advantage over the investor, but they have a huge emotional advantage. They keep you there as long as they can, they get you as drunk as they can, and then you make bad mistakes and your statistical advantage goes way down. How does that happen in the stock market? Well, when people get in and they don't know what they're doing, they get scared, panic and give up; they sell things at a loss and they buy things high. This happens with people in a frenzy to buy Google at $430. You're glad if you bought it at the IPO and can capitalize on the emotional advantage that you have.

Mike: Wall Street sort of does the same thing: it gets investors drunk with emotion, hype and hysteria, and people buy into it. For me, 25 years as an investor and a trader, I've been a floor trader on four exchanges, right down in the pits, and an economist, from a macro perspectiveÉ I've seen people trade on the floor tick by tick, I've seen big long term investors, technicians, the fundamental guys like me value-oriented, and the common denominator is that discipline, right?

Natalie: Absolutely, and people should be aware of it. As you're saying, what is the emotional advantage of Wall Street? The alcoholic beverages on Wall Street are headlines and earnings reports.

Mike: In my daily report, I have a headline index that we cover for about 25 different markets -- stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, oilÉ We're actually going through the news everyday and looking at the Bullish stories and the Bear's stories. You can see as clear as day, when the markets are peaking, there is an explosion of Bullish headlines everywhere, and when things are horrible and you should be buying like crazy, people aren't because the news is awful.

Natalie: Exactly. The whole point of it is that in order to maintain a statistical advantageÑand I don't like to put investing and gambling in the same sentence--but whether it's at the poker table or on Wall Street, you have to find a way to take the emotion out of it. You have to research what you're interested in, believe it, buy it at a good price, be willing to sell it at a good price, and you can't let anybody else come along and scare the heck out of you into doing the opposite, which is what a lot of people do all the timeÑeven really smart people and really wealthy people.

Mike: On your website you give a whole range of advice, not just on investing. American consumers are probably the savviest consumers in the world. There's a brutal retail environment in this country, stores have to offer the best deals because people just don't buy. But when it comes to investing, people do the opposite of that. Why is it so difficult to translate that behaviorÑwhich has become so engrained and has really shaped our whole retail consumption in this countryÑto investing?

Natalie: "Buy low; sell high" sounds so easy, but it's counter-intuitive. It means you're walking in when everybody else is saying, "It's the Apocalypse," like in October of 2002, and going on a buying spree, and everybody tells you how stupid and crazy you are. Or it means at the beginning of 2000 or end of 1999 you're saying, "We're going to have a rookie president, we've had eight years of prosperity, NASDAQ's been running on negative earnings for five years, so I think I'm pulling stuff off the table." And everyone tells you you're an idiot because you don't understand the New Economy.

Mike: One of the problems in the world now is that we have so much access to information that it's overload. If you were sitting on a deserted island, had the Wall Street Journal parachuted to you every quarter, and you could make one telephone call a quarter, you'd do a lot better. You would see the market way down at some point and you'd buy. Then you don't see what's going on for three months, or even a year would be betterÉ I think people would do remarkably better than they do now.

Natalie: Right, and what a great message, that instead of being a headline or news junkie, that you can actually relax and do less and that is going to be better.

Mike: It's said that Warren Buffet doesn't look at any of these things, and its probably one of the ingredients in his success. Natalie, you're known as a champion stock picker. This market is frustrating to a lot of people, despite the fact that we've seen some of the broader market averages and recently the NASDAQ and S and P move to multi-year highs. But if you ask people, they'll tell you the market is not going up. Why is there this perception?

Natalie: From where it was in the beginning of the year, the markets really haven't gone up measurably. There are modest returns, and a lot of volatility. People have to be aware of that, and if you want gains, maybe you've been spoiled in the past.

Mike: If somebody came to you right now with money to manage, what would you be doing? Would you do anything differently? Would you be putting it in cash? How would you allocate that?

Natalie: Two months ago I would have had a stronger position in cash than I do now. I would be a little more in on the Santa Rally, although right now you're buying in late if you're trying to capitalize on that. Whatever you would normally allocate for cash for a client, which would be at least a percentage of their age protected, I would add to thatÑand mainly to look for opportunities. You always want to be looking for opportunities, and not buying high. Real estate is really high, and a lot of stocks. I think people don't realize that the DOW is at an all time high. You have to wait for good prices. On our website, we pick a stock to feature and we follow it until it's had its run, then we may still look at it if it's a great company. We've had 19 stocks over the past 18 months that are in positive territory, versus only four that have gone slightly south. Of those stocks, we've had Intermix, which had anywhere from 60% gains to quadrupled gains depending on when you bought it, and they were the owners of Myspace, prior to them selling it to News Corp. You have Rio Tinto, and if you bought it over a year ago when we featured it, you still want to hang onto it because metals mining companies will continue to do well. In this kind of environment, you have to be looking at taking your gains in shorter windows. You have to be very disciplined about buying low and selling high. You need a stronger position in cash so that you can take advantage. For example, Advanced Micro Devices is $30 a share right now, and just a little over a year ago there was a huge fall out in the chips sector and you could have picked it up at $11.

Mike: What about bonds and 13 rate hikes by the Fed over the last year and a half, an almost a flat, inverted yield curve nowÑnobody wants to go near it. You can get a pretty decent yield just on cash and bonds, compared to dividend yields, and that looks pretty attractive. What do you think about bonds?

Natalie: The two people who write for us on that area think that you have to stress shorter maturity, and you want to make sure it's higher quality. You have to be looking to buy low and then hold on to it until you're selling at a profit. With interest rates rising, the prices on bonds should be going lower, so you might wait to buyÉ

Mike: Right, we're just starting to get into an area that's looking more attractive, but yields could rise still a little more. If the yield curve inverts, that will have some implications in the economy. What do you think of energy, which has become such a hot area over the last couple years?

Natalie: The prices are kind of high. It's twofold: the supply is not going to meet the demand in the future. I think the demand is going to continue to go up, and they're going to have to start opening new refineries and putting in infrastructure to meet the demand. On the other hand, you will have companies investing in expensive infrastructureÉ but I'm a short-term gal, I'm a "buy low sell high" gal. I've taken some profits on Sunoco, and they had a delightful run for us. They were in the Gulf region during Hurricane Rita and they haven't yet released how much damage there has been to their infrastructure or how much of a hit they are going to be taking to earnings. I think energy will be more volatile in the coming year, but it will still be high. You're not going to be looking at 2003 prices for gas or shares.

Mike: You mentioned some of the retailers that you bought in mid-October. They were beaten down so much. I bought Gap at $16, they rallied up to about $18, and it seems like it's stalling out. Would you be taking profits now?

Natalie: With the energy prices so high, even if retailers get people to buy in at their stores, their bottom line won't be greatÑeven if they're top line is better. I've heard that there have been frenzies over just the bottom, discount prices, and that worries me. With retailers and all stocks these days, I take whatever I can get whenever I get it. I personally traded Sohu in the last couple months, which is a Chinese Internet company. In my view, it has better legs than the other two that have gotten better headlines: Alibaba, which is now partnered with Yahoo!, and Baidu, which had that explosive IPO that then retreated quite a lot. Sohu has the contracts for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The founder/CEO was educated at MIT. Dr. Charles Zhang is very "in" with the Chinese government, and he's been listed by the Financial Times as one of the top Internet entrepreneurs in the world. The stock dropped to $15, I bought it, then it popped up to $20, and I sold it. Now it's trading back about $19. If you make a profit, you better take it in this environment.

Mike: I just wish I had listened to that advice with my Exxon Mobile. Are you looking for the timing in these things? Are you looking at charts as well?

Natalie: I don't follow that. I'm really looking for the breakout company, and I want to have 100 reasons why it's better than all the competition. Then I want to know what its historical range is and buy it low. I'm also looking at the behavior of the markets themselves. For instance, Google is a long-term hold for your portfolio, but it might be a short-term sell to just take some profits off the table.

Mike: I think so, thank you Natalie for coming on the show!

 

So who are the shysters and scam artists that show up on your doorstep daily, get you drunk, capitalize on your euphoria or panic and steal your money? Headlines! Take the emotion out of your game, and improve your odds of winning.


You Don't Have To Be Donald Trump To Become a Real Estate Millionaire!

by Bobbi McKenna

You Just Have To Do Your Homework and Get in the Game.

Bobbi McKenna and LA Mayor, Anthony Villaraigosa

I'm best known as a book coach, book publisher, and the publisher of the Internet Magazine "Giving You A Voice," but I'm also a real estate investor who was one of the interview subjects for the recently published Millionaire Real Estate Investor. If you think Real Estate Investing is too hard, let me share this fact with you: I made $820,000 on five real estate deals that took up about ten work days of my time: 80 hours of work.

And that $820,000 doesn't include rental income or tax breaks.

 

 

How Did I Do It?

  • I bought for the right price,
  • I looked at enough properties to be able to tell what a good deal was ("price" plus "terms"),
  • I bought in the right area,
  • I bought at the right time,
  • I sold at the right time,
  • I was decisive once I had the necessary information, and
  • I used a knowledgeable and experienced Real Estate Broker who had sold well over one hundred properties.

An Example:
Let me tell you a story about one of my successful real estate deals. In 2003, mortgage interest rates fell to 5.2% (for a 30 year fixed mortgage). My husband and I live in Denver, Colorado, but I'm from the Oregon coast. It has always been my dream to live near the ocean in sunny Southern California.

My husband and I already owned a luxury condo in Long Beach where my son and his college roommate were living, but I knew it wouldn't be big enough to hold all of my husband's books and CD's when we retired. I called my Southern California Real Estate Broker, and asked her to help me find me a large house in a beach community. She emailed me listings.

Buy for The Right Price:
At first, I thought Long Beach would have the best values. But as I surveyed the stats on the property listings, I discovered that real estate prices in Long Beach had already surged, while prices in Huntington Beach had risen only incrementally.

Act Decisively:
On a Sunday night, I found a spectacular property with a swimming pool close to the beach - which I thought was under-priced. I bought a plane ticket and flew to Orange County the next morning.

Buy in The Right Area:
I know that people like to say that Southern California is too crowded and congested, but the reason it's so crowded is because it has a powerful economy that provides good-paying jobs, and it has a wonderful climate.

I felt that as "boomers" retired, many of them would want to live at the beach. (In fact, during the two years that my husband and I owned property in Huntington Beach, I met people who were retiring and moving to the beach from Los Angeles County.)

Buy At The Right Time:
I inspected the house in Huntington Beach, and made an offer the same day. This was in March - early in the real estate season, which peaks in June, July, and August - and I closed on the property the end of May 2003. The sellers did a "rent back" that covered my mortgage until well into June.

I had "locked in" the low interest rate and frozen the price in March. As a result, I was well positioned to hold on to the property or to flip it.

I used the house when I came to LA on business, and one of my friends rented a bedroom and paid part of the utility costs. My daughter moved out to California to attend college and lived there, too. We swam in the pool, took morning runs on the beach, and had family vacations there with all four of our children.

Sell At The Right Time:
Over time, I was pretty sure that the house would go to a million, but I didn't realize it would happen in only 27 months. When it hit a million in August 2005, I sold it. (Remember the best times to sell are during the summer months. In my experience, fall and winter are not optimal selling times, but they are great buying seasons.)

Who Should Buy A Home?
Everyone who can possibly afford it. There, I've said it. Sure, I know it's hard in cities like New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Boston, and Washington, DC. When my husband and I bought our first home, we lived in Washington, DC, where real estate was, and is, very expensive. In addition, interest rates at that time were an astonishing 14%!

But we took the plunge anyway, and it was the best economic decision we ever made. We made a lot of money on that house. Best of all: We were in the game!

Who Shouldn't Buy A Home?
There are times when quality of life considerations may outweigh the economic advantages of buying. If you live in an area where real estate is very expensive and you would have to move very far away from your place of employment, you may choose to rent. But make no mistake about it. Your decision could have long-term negative economic consequences.

You will either want to find other investments to take the place of real estate, or buy rental property in another area of your city or state that isn't so expensive. That's what several of my Southern California friends have done.

A Final Story:
Let me tell you a little bit more about the Long Beach condo I mentioned earlier. When our son decided to go to Cal State Long Beach, I convinced my husband that we should buy a condo instead of renting an apartment for our son.

"During the four years he's in college, we'll make enough money to pay for his college education," I said. (Paying out of state tuition - we live in Colorado - that would come to about $60,000.)

The property I selected was in a gated, locked luxury complex with two inside parking spaces, a balcony, a pool, and beautiful grounds. It was also less than a mile from campus in a great neighborhood, and a free campus shuttle stopped right out front.

We easily found a roommate for my son who paid rent and half the utilities. With the roommate, plus the tax break as a second home and depreciation as a rental property, my son lived there for free, and when he moved to Hollywood after only two years, we sold it and made $135,000. We rolled the equity over directly into the new property. (Be sure to consult with your own accountant. This should not be taken as tax or accounting advice.)

Action Steps:

  1. Sign up for a FREE one-year subscription to Giving You A Voice Magazine at www.givingyouavoice.com. As a subscriber, you will get a FREE 50-page Real Estate E-Book: "HOW TO KEEP THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE FROM BLOWING UP IN YOUR FACE!" with Intermediate and Advanced Strategies for Investors. (I encourage you to send me your own real estate success stories.)
  2. Find a knowledgeable and successful Real Estate Broker who has sold a lot of properties,
  3. Go out and start looking at properties so that you will know a great deal when you find one.

Bobbi McKenna is a book coach and book publisher as well as the publisher of the Internet Magazine: GivingYouAVoice.com. She is an internationally recognized speaker who teaches at venues such as The Learning Annex and The Smithsonian Institution, and is a member of the National Press Club, The Denver Press Club, and The Society of Professional Journalists. She is also a successful real estate investor and co-author of The Million Dollar Woman.

 


Gold Fever, the Santa Rally and Beating a Flat Market.

by Kelley Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter

Kelley Wright, Managing Editor,
Investment Quality Trends Newsletter

SANTA RALLY TOPS OUT IN JANUARY?
Until November, this has been a relatively dismal year for the markets. Not to worry though because the long-standing Wall Street tradition of ending the show with a bang is in full swing with the reprise of the How to Put Lipstick on a Pig self-help video. This is the award-winning feature that details how to leave them smiling and cheering at years end, after ten months of merciless whip sawing and no tangible results.

Initial reviews suggest this year's campaign is progressing nicely. While it is still early in December much of the financial press seems to already be in full Santa Claus Rally mode and form. After reviewing the situation fully we have concluded that this posture is completely warranted. After all, look where the market is now; a whole 1.50% higher than it was in January (as measured by the Dow). Yee haw cowboy!

Admittedly, a 4.30% GDP number is pretty impressive. Heaven knows that the natural disasters, oil spikes and the Fed's tightening campaign were more than sufficient to put the consumer, and therefore the economy, into the tank. The fact that it hasn't happened suggests the consumer and economy are more resilient than previously believed, or that there were lines of credit that had been as yet untapped. If the latter is the case, one has to wonder where on earth the source could be because it isn't coming from incomes and it is hard to believe there is any real estate equity left that hasn't been extracted. More most certainly will be revealed.

If memory serves correctly, 2004 ended with a bang and then the markets topped out in January.

GOLD FEVER IN 2006
With short-term rates significantly higher than at this time last year and with the Fed seemingly intent on further tightening, not to mention that oil prices, while well off their highs, are also significantly higher, it begs the question what happens if oil begins to spike again?

Also interesting is that gold has finally closed above $500 an ounce. While this won't surprise anyone that has been following that market, as of yet it hasn't caught the fancy of the press or the public. You can bet this will happen after the first of the year, as will the explanations for why the metal is in obvious bull form.

I will suggest now that 95% of the commentary will be wrong. Most of it will be very inflation-centric, as that is the template with gold. My take right now is that the gold market is technically driven. Long-established areas of resistance are being taken out and this has the chart-monkeys all excited.

For Trendphiles our primary gold vehicle in the past has been Barrick (ABX). Unfortunately, ABX currently resides in our Faded Blue Chip category. As long-term subscribers are fully aware we have long-standing rules about initiating positions in stocks that are not currently in Select Blue Chip status.

I am not going to make any news by breaking those rules now but from a technical perspective the gold market has all the characteristics of a great trade.

I would be remiss in not mentioning a recent piece by Mark Hulbert in the Hulbert Financial Digest. It has been our long-held contention that one of the ingredients of investing success is to focus on the market of stocks rather than the stock market. Mr. Hulbert has posted a piece with some accompanying research that appears to confirm our contention.

Well-known indexes such as the Dow and the S&P 500 cover specific areas of the economy and the markets. The Dow-Wilshire 5000 is a much broader representation of the economy and the markets if for no other reason than the fact it consists of 5000 companies. As a whole these indexes can go through periods where there is no perceptible movement. Two terms for this are moving sideways or trading flat. Subscribers may be familiar with a chart of the Dow from 1964 through 1981, which we have published from time to time, that illustrates this concept.

The markets have not made a new high since late 1999 to early 2000 and have been in a relatively tight trading range ever since. Many have described this period as a flat market as well. Our contention has always been that investors can find success in the stock market by focusing on companies that offer historic instances of value via their dividend yield and are not dependent on the performance of the broad market.

Mr. Hulbert has published a study that tracks the performance of a good number of newsletters that have recorded positive results despite the lack of progress in the broad market indexes. Of the top twenty newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performance between October 31, 1999 and October 31, 2005, Investment Quality Trends takes the top spot with an annualized gain of 13.40%. Important to note is that this performance was accomplished with approximately 20% less risk than the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.

While we generally rank in the top spot for all the categories and time frames for which we are eligible, this study affirms our belief that concentrating on stocks rather than markets works, period.

 

Investment Quality Trends (at IQTrends.com) is rated the #1 Top Performing Newsletter for five-year, ten-year and fifteen-year risk-adjusted returns by Hulbert's Financial Digest. If you are interested in accessing Mr. Wright's newsletter and to post those kinds of gains yourself, go to www.IQTrends.com


The Outlook for Gold.

by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden, of the Aden Forecast.

Reprinted by permission of www.adenforecast.com and courtesy of www.AssetStrategies.com.

GOLD: MEGA BULL MARKET UNDERWAY
Gold recently hit an 18-year high. This is now starting to attract some attention, even though gold has already risen 92% over the past 4 1⁄2 years, in its strongest rise since the 1970s.

Nevertheless, many investors are unaware of this ongoing bull market rise. That's actually good because it means gold's bull market is still in its early stages and it has a lot more upside potential.

WHAT'S DRIVING GOLD

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden,
Market Analysts AdenForecast.com

Most important, a new investment era began in 1999, out of financial assets like stocks into tangible assets like gold, and this will be the key to successful investing in the years ahead. When these mega shifts take place, the trend tends to last for years, as we saw in the 1980s and 1990s when stocks were stronger than gold, but that's now changed. Gold has been stronger than stocks over the past six years and that's where your primary investment focus should be.

This new era is being fueled by massive government spending, the largest debts and deficits the world has ever known, the war on terror, record high oil and commodity prices, the real estate bubble, growing uncertainty, and the booming growth and demand out of China, as well as other emerging countries.

These factors provide a positive backdrop for gold and so does the weak U.S. dollar, which is poised to head even lower over time. The dollar, for instance, has already lost over 90% of its purchasing power since 1913 and it has dropped 70% since the early 1970s when it stopped having a link to gold, becoming instead a floating paper currency. Throughout history, whenever a currency stopped having a link to gold it dropped, and the dollar has not been an exception.

On the other hand, gold is the ultimate currency and it always has been. Gold is real money and it's maintained its value over the centuries. In fact, it has a 5000-year track record and no other investment can make that claim.

GOLD: LOOKING GOOD
Looking at gold's technical big picture on the chart below, you can see it's in a strong 35-year uptrend. A couple of years ago it broke above its downtrend since 1980. It's now at an 18-year high and its next resistance is at $500. Once gold is able to rise above that level, there will be no further resistance until gold reaches the 1980 top area at $850.

For now, however, gold has risen far and fast, and it's due for a normal downward correction in the months ahead. If you haven't bought gold yet, that'll provide a good opportunity to buy.

 

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com.

NataliePace.com note: The opinions expressed in this article are solely the opinions of the writers do not represent the positions of NataliePace.com. NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies and/or investment vehicles mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security.


Sharing Wisdom.

Fashion Designer Wants Money to Start Her Own Label.

Spring Collection 2005, Frankie B
FrankieB.com

In our monthly Sharing Wisdom feature, NataliePace.com subscribers get answers to questions about money, career, business, investing (and really what doesn't have an element of money to it?). The collective experience, success and wisdom of the NataliePace.com circle can help you to follow the golden brick road to your dream life.

This month, a young professional woman writes:
"I am a Product Designer with a Bachelor of Science in Industrial Design from the Art Center College of Art. Since graduation, I've been designing footwear and accessories, and I want to launch my own line of branded products. I've spoken to a couple business consultants, and am looking into speaking with manufacturers in Asia. I have the know how when is comes to the target market and the type of products I want to develop, and I have dealt with the manufacturing process and research, etc... Could please give me some advice as to how to get some investors or where to go from here for finances?"

If you are interested in Sharing Wisdom on where to find the money to start your own footwear and accessories business and what pitfalls to avoid and wise tips to incorporate, please go to the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com. Click on the topic: "Fashion Designer Seeks Money."

We will be selecting the best tips to include in next month's article. If you are interested in being quoted, be sure to include a short bio and your web site information, so that we can contact you. Also, in order to make the publishing deadline, you'll need to post your response before January 15th, 2006. Thanks in advance for helping NataliePace.com to continue to "spread wealth by sharing wisdom."

Got a Question for our Experts?
Post on the NataliePace.com bulletin board and/or email info@NataliePace.com with your burning money questions-- be they business, investing or personal -- and we will continue the dialog by having our very knowledgeable subscribers answer your most pressing needs. Also, feel free to visit our Sharing Wisdom bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com and post your question there in a new topic.


Up the Career Ladder.

by Patty DeDominic, CEO, PDQ Careers and President Emeritus, NAWBO.

How to Prime Yourself for a Better Position.
 

Patty DeDominic (with her husband Gene Sinser)
CEO, PDQ Careers & President Emeritus, NAWBO

Attracting the attention of the right executive recruiters is an art that most people don't have the luxury of learning how to do. It's very much like the old cliché of getting a bank loan: when you need the money no one wants to lend to you.

So, how do you help yourself get offers for better positions? Using the experience gained in running PDQ Personnel Services for over two decades and in talking to several busy executive recruiters I will give you a few pointers now.

It helps to understand that executive recruiters are paid by employers, not you the job candidate. In becoming the agent for the client /company, their job is to screen out all people who do not fit the criteria agreed to with the client and then present only those candidates who can add the most value to the employer. This is why you may find a dream job advertised or referred to, but not be invited to apply.

Understand that you are not the client, so don't expect career counseling at an executive recruiter's expense. If you need and want counseling, then get yourself to a career coach and expect to pay for it. Remember that Tiger Woods stills works with his golf pro, actors have coaches and many professionals are finding this tool a valuable advantage as they progress around the maze of employment options and up the career ladder.

Get clear about your goals and learn to share them quickly. You may think it makes you sound flexible and easy to get along with when you say you are totally open to new opportunities but this isn't what an executive recruiter needs to hear. These skills plus resiliency will make you more successful, however for the executive recruiter please be self-directed in your own profession or industry.

Fish where you know the big fish are. Do the research to find out who is respected in your profession and prepare to let them know about your credentials and expanded objectives.  

Do call and get acquainted with the leading recruiters in your field. Have your resume at the ready and be prepared to talk about your accomplishments and your goals.  This isn't bragging; it is networking and you need to do it before you are unemployed. Most firms are moving to online recruiting so don't be put off if you aren't invited in to meet face to face. Phone and email dialogs are enough to get you in a database, which will be referred to when the right search assignment comes in.

Be discreet and professional.
Most recruiters are now specializing in industries or skill sets, so it is not necessary nor recommended to blast your resume all over town. Executive recruitment fees can easily reach $50-100,000 per successful search and placement which demands that the search firm screen out lookie-loos.

Do your thing and do get out in your professional circles and trade associations.

Seek high visibility assignments and be prepared to talk briefly about your accomplishments. The headhunter's ideal candidates are those who are currently working, respected by their peers and customers. It is important to be able to succinctly tell others both in words and by your actions not only who you are, but also what you are most interested in and most importantly what you can do for them.

Stay up beat and don't burn those bridges.
Executive recruiters due diligence requires them to evaluate not only your track record and reputation but to make assumptions about how well you will perform in the next job. In evaluating whom to refer on to clients, we will avoid those who badmouth former employers, and who can't point to past and current raving fans.

Stay in touch. Many experts in executive transition have said that when you land the best job of your life is the right time to reach out and plant more seeds. This can be a tricky one since it could be misinterpreted if your current employer learns of this.  Sending thank you letters to all who helped you along the way and a progress "newsletter" after the first few months is a great way to keep your network primed.

If you need more advice please drop us a note at info@pdqcareers.com, and we will be happy to make more specific suggestions in your case.



Patty DeDominic is the Chief Executive Officer of PDQ Careers Group of Companies, Staffing Partners to America's Finest Employers at www.pdqcareers.com.

Don't miss the opportunity to chat with Patty one-on-one in the NataliePace.com chat room on Wednesday, January 11th, 2006 at 8:45 a.m. PST. Available to NataliePace.com subscribers only.


KISS and Retire Well: Why Keeping it Simple, Stupid, is a Great Foundation for Your Retirement Plan.

by Steve Selengut.

A Simple 8th Grade Math Formula to Ensure You're Set for the Life of Reilly.

The reason people assume the risks of investing in the first place is the prospect of achieving a higher rate of return than is attainable in a risk free environmentÉi.e., an FDIC insured bank account. Risk comes in various forms, but the average investor's primary concerns are "credit" and "market" riskÉ particularly when it comes to investing for income. Credit risk involves the ability of corporations, government entities, and even individuals, to make good on their financial commitments; market risk refers to the certainty that there will be changes in the Market Value of the selected securities. We can minimize the former by selecting only high quality (investment grade) securities and the latter by diversifying properly, understanding that Market Value changes are normal, and by having a plan of action for dealing with such fluctuations.

You don't have to be a professional Investment Manager to professionally manage your investment portfolio, but you do need to have a long term plan and know something about Asset AllocationÉ a portfolio organization tool that is often misunderstood and almost always improperly used within the financial community. It's important to recognize, as well, that you do not need a fancy computer program or a glossy presentation with economic scenarios, inflation estimators, and stock market projections to get yourself lined up properly with your target. You need common sense, reasonable expectations, patience, discipline, soft hands, and an oversized driver. The K. I. S. S. Principle needs to be at the foundation of your Investment Plan; an emphasis on Working Capital will help you Organize, and Control your investment portfolio.

Planning for Retirement should focus on the additional income needed from the investment portfolio, and the Asset Allocation formula [relax, 8th grade math is plenty] needed for goal achievement will depend on just three variables: (1) the amount of liquid investment assets you are starting with, (2) the amount of time until retirement, and (3) the range of interest rates currently available from Investment Grade Securities.  If you don't allow the "engineer" gene to take control, this can be a fairly simple process. Even if you are young, you need to stop smoking heavily and to develop a growing stream of incomeÉ if you keep the income growing, the Market Value growth (that you are expected to worship) will take care of itself. Remember, higher Market Value may increase hat size, but it doesn't pay the bills.

First deduct any guaranteed pension income from your retirement income goal to estimate the amount needed just from the investment portfolio. Don't worry about inflation at this stage. Next, determine the total Market Value of your investment portfolios, including company plans, IRAs, H-BondsÉ everything, except the house, boat, jewelry, etc. Liquid personal and retirement plan assets only. This total is then multiplied by a range of reasonable interest rates (6%, to 8% right now) and, hopefully, one of the resulting numbers will be close to the target amount you came up with a moment ago. If you are within a few years of retirement age, they better be! For certain, this process will give you a clear idea of where you stand, and that, in and of itself, is worth the effort.

Organizing the Portfolio involves deciding upon an appropriate Asset AllocationÉ and that requires some discussion. Asset Allocation is the most important and most frequently misunderstood concept in the investment lexicon. The most basic of the confusions is the idea that diversification and Asset Allocation are one and the same. Asset Allocation divides the investment portfolio into the two basic classes of investment securities: Stocks/Equities and Bonds/Income Securities. Most Investment Grade securities fit comfortably into one of these two classes. (Diversification is a risk reduction technique that strictly controls the size of individual holdings as a percent of total assets.) A second misconception describes Asset Allocation as a sophisticated technique used to soften the bottom line impact of movements in stock and bond pricesÉ a subtle "market timing" device. Finally, the Asset Allocation Formula is often misused in an effort to superimpose a valid investment planning tool on speculative strategies that have no real merits of their own, for example: annual portfolio repositioning, market timing adjustments, and Mutual Fund shifting [editor's note: which put more money in the broker's pocket].

The Asset Allocation formula itself is sacred, and if constructed properly, should never be altered due to conditions in either Equity or Fixed Income markets. Changes in the personal situation, goals, and objectives of the investor are the only issues that can be allowed into the Asset Allocation decision-making process.

Here are a few basic Asset Allocation Guidelines: (1) All Asset Allocation decisions are based on the Cost Basis of the securities involved. The current Market Value may be more or less and it just doesn't matter.  (2) Any investment portfolio with a Cost Basis of $100,000 or more should have a minimum of 30% invested in Income Securities, either taxable or tax free, depending on the nature of the portfolio. Tax deferred entities (all varieties of retirement programs) should house the bulk of the Equity Investments. This rule applies from age 0 to Retirement Age (- 5 years). Under age 30, it is a mistake to have too much of your portfolio in Income Securities. (3) There are only two Asset Allocation Categories, and neither is ever described with a decimal point. All cash in the portfolio is destined for one category or the other. (4) From Retirement Age (- 5) on, the Income Allocation needs to be adjusted upward until the "reasonable interest rate test" says that you are on target or at least in range. (5) At retirement, between 60% and 100% of your portfolio may have to be in Income Generating Securities.

Controlling, or Implementing, the Investment Plan will be accomplished best by those who are least emotional, most decisive, naturally calm, patient, generally conservative (not politically), and self actualized. Investing is a long-term, personal, goal orientated, non- competitive, hands on, decision-making process that does not require advanced degrees or a rocket scientist IQ. In fact, being too smart can be a problem if you have a tendency to over analyze things. It is helpful to establish guidelines for selecting securities, and for disposing of them. Don't buy any stock unless it is down at least 20% from its 52 week high.  Take a reasonable profit (using 10% as a target) as frequently as possible. With a 40% Income Allocation, 40% of profits and dividends would be allocated to Income Securities.

For Fixed Income, focus on Investment Grade securities, with above average but not "highest in class" yields. With Variable Income securities, avoid purchase near 52-week highs, and keep individual holdings well below 5%. Keep individual Preferred Stocks and Bonds well below 5% as well. Closed End Fund positions may be slightly higher than 5%, depending on type. Take a reasonable profit (more than one years' income for starters) as soon as possible. With a 60% Equity Allocation, 60% of profits and interest would be allocated to stocks.

Monitoring Investment Performance the Wall Street way is inappropriate and problematic for goal-orientated investors. It purposely focuses on short-term dislocations and uncontrollable cyclical changes, producing constant disappointment and encouraging inappropriate transactional responses to natural and harmless events. Coupled with a Media that thrives on sensationalizing anything outrageously positive or negative (Google and Enron, Peter Lynch and Martha Stewart, for example), it becomes difficult to stay the course with any plan, as environmental conditions change. First greed, then fear, new products replacing old, and always the promise of something better when, in fact, the boring and old fashioned basic investment principles still get the job done. Remember, your unhappiness is Wall Street's most coveted asset. Don't humor them, and protect yourself. Base your performance evaluation efforts on goal achievementÉ yours, not theirs. Here's how, based on the three basic objectives we've been talking about: Growth of Base Income, Profit Production from Trading, and Overall Growth in Working Capital.

Base Income includes the dividends and interest produced by your portfolio, without the realized capital gains that should actually be the larger number much of the time. No matter how you slice it, your long-range comfort demands regularly increasing income, and by using your total portfolio cost basis as the benchmark, it's easy to determine where to invest your accumulating cash. Since a portion of every dollar added to the portfolio is reallocated to income production, you are assured of increasing the total annually.  If Market Value is used for this analysis, you could be pouring too much money into a falling stock market to the detriment of your long-range income objectives.

Profit Production is the happy face of the market value volatility that is a natural attribute of all securities.  To realize a profit, you must be able to sell the securities that most investment strategists (and accountants) want you to marry up with! Successful investors learn to sell the ones they love, and the more frequently (yes, short term), the better. This is called trading, and it is not a four-letter word. When you can get yourself to the point where you think of the securities you own as high quality inventory on the shelves of your personal portfolio boutique, you have arrived. You won't see Wal-Mart holding out for higher prices than their standard markup, and neither should you. Reduce the markup on slower movers, and sell damaged goods you've held too long at a loss if you have to.

Working Capital Growth (total portfolio cost basis) just happens, and at a rate that will be somewhere between the average return on the Income Securities in the portfolio and the total realized gain on the Equity portion of the portfolio. It will actually be higher with larger Equity allocations because frequent trading produces a higher rate of return than the more secure positions in the Income allocation. But, and this is too big a but to ignore as you approach retirement, trading profits are not guaranteed and the risk of loss (although minimized with a sensible selection process) is greater than it is with Income Securities.  This is why the Asset Allocation moves from a greater to a lesser Equity percentage as you approach retirement.

So is there really such a thing as an Income Portfolio that needs to be managed? Or are we really just dealing with an investment portfolio that needs its Asset Allocation tweaked occasionally as we approach the time in life when it has to provide the yachtÉ and the gas money to run it? By using Cost Basis (Working Capital) as the number that needs growing, by accepting trading as an acceptable, even conservative, approach to portfolio management, and by focusing on growing income instead of ego, this whole retirement investing thing becomes significantly less scary. So now you can focus on changing the tax code, reducing health care costs, saving Social Security, and spoiling the grandchildren.


Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read, and A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy.

NataliePace.com note: The opinions expressed in this article are solely the opinions of the writer and do not represent the positions of NataliePace.com. NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies and/or investment vehicles mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security.

 


Wall Street Companies Are Cash Rich and Investing in Buybacks Galore.

by David R. Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter and Buyback Premium Portfolio

David R. Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter and Buyback Premium Portfolio

Investors nervous about the health of the economy as 2005 draws to a close and 2006 dawns need look no further than one stealth indicator: stock buybacks by the country's biggest companies are coming fast and furious.

Eighty percent - an extraordinary number -- of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are repurchasing their own stock, and thus returning excess cash to shareholders. When the biggest companies are buying back, it means they know their stock is undervalued, and represents a bargain relative to where they expect it to be in the future.

You can see the gritty details for yourself on the chart below, but let me point out a couple of things. The largest repurchaser, DuPont, decreased its shares outstanding by nearly 15% this year. That's an amazing feat for a company that size, and a real statement by the board of directors at DuPont that not only is the stock seriously undervalued, but the future looks promising. Among the 20% of companies in the Dow not repurchasing, only Altria has issued more than 1% (1.5% to be exact) of additional stock over the prior 12-month period ending at the end of November. And Altria, which had been keeping money in reserve pending the outcome of lawsuits, got a huge boost Friday when Philip Morris USA won in an overturned $10 billion verdict over claims it deceptively marketed "light" cigarettes. Presumably some of that money held in reserve will be eligible to be used for buybacks now.

In this chart, you'll see that 24 of the 30 stocks (80%) have decreased their shares outstanding this year. But consider this - even some of those final six on the list are still doing at least a modest amount of buying back simply to keep up with stock dilution. In other words, realize that even those six companies on the list that do not have negative share counts year over year have ONLY a negligible 0% or 0.1% or 0.2% increase in shares. The average Dow stock decreased its shares outstanding 2.2% during the 12-month period ending 11/30/05 vs. an increase of 0.7% in shares outstanding for the S&P 500.  (This increase would be even larger if you removed the Dow 30 from the S&P calculation.)

Company Name

Ticker Symbol

Reduction in shares outstanding (buybacks)

DUPONT*

DD

-14.9

PROCTER + GAMBLE*

PG

-6.3

HEWLETT-PACKARD*

HPQ

-5.1

INTL BUS MACH*

IBM

-5.1

INTEL

INTC

-4.6

BOEING*

BA

-3.8

EXXON MOBIL*

XOM

-3.5

HOME DEPOT

HD

-2.5

CITIGROUP

C

-2.5

3M COMPANY

MMM

-2.4

PFIZER*

PFE

-2.1

MICROSOFT

MSFT

-2.1

HONEYWELL INTL

HON

-2

WAL-MART STORES

WMT

-1.7

COCA-COLA

KO

-1.7

DISNEY WALT

DIS

-1.6

J P MORGAN CHASE

JPM

-1.4

MERCK

MRK

-1.4

AMER EXPRESS

AXP

-1.1

AT+T INC

T

-1

CATERPILLAR*

CAT

-0.3

AMER INTL GROUP*

AIG

-0.3

GEN ELECTRIC

GE

-0.1

VERIZON COMMUNIC

VZ

-0.1

ALCOA*

AA

0

MCDONALDS

MCD

0.1

GEN MOTORS*

GM

0.1

JOHNSON JOHNSON

JNJ

0.2

UNITED TECH*

UTX

0.3

ALTRIA GROUP*

MO

1.5

*Ed's Note: According to a report by Standard and Poor's, these companies each owe more than a billion to their pension plans. With Exxon Mobil short -$11.502 billion and General Motors shy -$7.531 billion.

This extraordinary repurchasing by our country's biggest companies comes during an equally extraordinary, record-setting buyback year. This year so far, nearly 60 companies in the S&P 500 have cut their number of shares outstanding by at least 4% through buybacks, according to S&P. And in the first nine months of 2005, S&P 500 companies spent $231 billion on buybacks -- and the year isn't over yet. An equity market analyst at S&P estimated buybacks will surpass $300 billion for 2005, well above the $197 billion for 2004 and the $131 billion for 2003.

The fact that companies awash in cash due to record corporate profits are opening their coffers and returning it to shareholders through repurchasing shares is the best gift we could imagine.

David R. Fried is the editor and publisher of The Buyback Letter (www.buybackletter.com), the only investment newsletter devoted to finding opportunities among companies that repurchase their own stock. His asset management firm -- Fried Asset Management, Inc. -- offers separate investor advisory and money management services which use the "Buyback Strategy" principles. All of his portfolios are beating the S&P 500 since inception.

 

NataliePace.com note: The opinions expressed in this article are solely the opinions of the writer and do not represent the positions of NataliePace.com. NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies and/or investment vehicles mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security.


Don't Blind Date. Get Smart and Have More Fun.

by Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com™

Natalie Pace, CEO & founder NataliePace.comª

When I first considered buying stocks, it was a lot like going out on a blind date. I had plenty of raw data, lots of information, but no idea what it all added up to. One peek at the person gives you a pretty good idea whether or not you want to go forward, but how do can you peek into corporations? And, as anyone who has ever been on a blind date knows, information can be very misleading. "He's got a great personality," usually means he's uglier than the Hunchback of Notre Dame. I had an abiding distrust of the stock market (and blind dates). Wasn't it just legalized gambling? Weren't corporations inherently corrupt? If the odds were against a novice investor like me making a profit, and I assumed they were, why waste even one spot of time on it?

Instead of burying my head in the sand, surrounding myself with cats and eating ice cream out of the container, I turned to something that humans have used to their advantage over the long road from cave dwellers to condo dwellers: I turned to my community of friends. Turns out that a few of my friends had started companies that were very successful. I have a good relationship... with numbers, and I know a few executives, but you'll rarely find me shopping for anything anywhere. My friend, Brigitte, on the other hand, loves shopping and hates math. Len understands market terminology. Jonathan serves on a lot of board of directors. Patti has a slew of market experience and information on the most obscure companies you've ever heard of. Diane knows real estate. Vicki, cars. Carol, entertainment.

You're getting the picture. If we could find a way to distill all of our collective experience and data into usable information, then we'd have a far more complete picture of the companies we were interested in investing in. In fact, if one considers all of the publicly available information, alongside macro trends, consumer observations and their own market experience, wouldn't that put an individual investor at a significant advantage in making informed investment decisions? The unique value proposition for NataliePace.com is that our subscribers will have access to all sorts of proprietary information that is completely legal because it comes from the observations of our subscribers. So, I encourage you to network and share information on our bulletin boards.

Forget about illegal insider trading. It's stupid, unethical, and frankly not that effective, as you can see from the queue of execs waiting for their day in court. With the wealth of company stock data available on-line and through the NataliePace.com ezine, the individual investor is actually poised, for perhaps the first time in the history of the stock market, to have a competitive advantage. Employees can anonymously share their employment experiences. Consumers, their buying and customer service experiences. It didn't take a genius to see that KMart was more frequently out of stock, with fewer customers and less employee satisfaction than its competitors BEFORE it declared bankruptcy. You can see problems in the numbers AFTER the consumer spending drops off, or you can preview the problems firsthand in the shopping experience. It is perfectly legal to share observations like this, and it is perfectly proper to consider them before placing your buy or sell order.

Obviously, I didn't invent the Internet (Al Gore did). I didn't invent investment clubs or investigative reporting. However, NataliePace.com's unique idea is that that these are natural partners in informed investing.

Forget about blind dates, how many individual investors blindly trusted their brokers prior to the great crash of 2000! NataliePace.com isn't suggesting you throw out your broker, but there's a big difference in taking an active role in your future and blindly allowing someone half your age (in a lot of cases) to control your destiny. Peter Lynch, arguably the most successful stock picker of all time, always maintained that an individual investor could outperform the market, if she invested in things she really understood.

NataliePace.com's test market of 2002 was to be one bear of a test. At the October 2002 low, Nasdaq was down 75% from its March 2000 high. The DOW dipped over 15% that year. Meanwhile, using the investigative reporting strategies that I rely on for my stock picking, my personal portfolio gains were over 200% in 2001. Since NataliePace.com began publishing, in November of 2002, we have annualized gains of over 59% (according to TipsTraders.com), which puts NataliePace.com at the top of the all of the stock newsletters that are followed by Tipstraders (over 690 A-list pundits).

So, is an investment in the NataliePace.com ezine and educating yourself a better approach to investing than the Blind Date strategy? If my dating turns out as well as my investing, I'll be taking a few weeks off to sail into the sunset next year.

Other Articles of Interest:
10 Common Investment Mistakes
Avoid them and Profit! by Natalie Wynne Pace, CEO and Founder of NataliePace.com.
The Joy of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler.


Hot News on Cool Stocks: Go For the Glory in January.

by Natalie Pace, Top-ranked stock picker, per TipsTraders.com.

Natalie Pace, top-ranked stock picker Per TipsTraders.com

(Note: These are not buy/sell recommendations. Always consult a certified financial professional before buying or selling stock.)

Stats, Facts, Quotes and Educational Information:

  1. Higher Interest Rates. Don't expect an end to the interest rate increases anytime soon. According to the Federal Open Market Committee press release, "The Committee judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance." The style of the FOMC press release and the wording is slightly changed from those of past. Is this the new, more direct approach of Ben Bernanke, who is scheduled to become Fed Reserve Chairman in February, when Alan Greenspan retires? What does this mean to the average individual? Real estate (in general) releases some hot air from the bubble. (Some sections of the country, like the Atlantic North East, which haven't seen a major run-up in prices may still do well, at least according to Sam Zell, a respected real estate mogul.) Corporations with slim margins and bad credit have a harder time accessing low-interest capital, which will affect their bottom line, earnings and stock performance.

  2. Essentially, it becomes more important than ever to do your research on the companies and real estate that you are investing in. Rebalance and diversify your positions according to your age and return expectations, take a strong position in the money markets (liquidity) and employ sophisticated strategies for winning gains in a challenging environment. You'll likely need more money for basics, and you'll want the ability to take advantage of buying opportunities that may arise. The free joy rides of the late Ô90s (in stock) and of the new millennium run-up in real estate will be hard-won in 2006 and 2007.

  3. We added RELM Wireless Corporation (AMEX: RWC) to our Hot News Watch List on 12.19.2005. With $9.9 M orders in 10.05 (delivery scheduled for 4th Q '05), sales are on tap to double in 4th Q over last year. RELM began trading on the American Stock Exchange on 10.14.05 and has already begun attracting institutional interest. Great P/E at 11.60. This is a Homeland Security/Military play as RELM supplies two-way land mobile radios (LMRs) to the government and public safety market.

  4. Go for the Glory in January. 50% or more of the stock market gains are typically made in the 4th quarter of the year. If you're looking to buy, make sure you're not buying at a 52-week high, unless it's a company that you are sure still has a lot of upside growth. If you're looking to sell, odds are, at least historically, that January is a good time to take your short-term gains. The Dow Jones Industrial average peaked at the beginning of January in 2005, and is still down -0.05 off that high, according to Dow Jones. Click on Trick or Treat for a breakdown of historical market returns by month.

  5. Las Vegas Sands and Sheldon G. Adelson, how do we love thee? Let me count the ways. The Venetian, The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao and now Singapore? Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Singapore's leading developer and hotel group, City Developments Limited, announced on 12.15.2005 that the two companies will jointly pursue the development of an integrated resort at the Marina Bayfront in Singapore. Macao is the Vegas of China (and the Chinese do have a reputation for loving to gamble). Singapore is a new player in resort/casinos in the region, and the Las Vegas Sands Corp. is one of the few mega resort operators still standing in the bidding process. This strategic alliance is a great move to increase the odds of winning the bid. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is a strong first mover in the Asian market, which is poised to outpace Vegas, just as the Chinese economy has outrun the rest of the world.

  6. 18 BIG WINNERS, which keeps us at the top in Annualized Returns (according to TipsTraders.com). This hot news article still has the proud honor of featuring eighteen companies that have posted positive gains, versus three that have gone south. Of the three that have gone south, we were most concerned with Krispy Kreme, but there are signs that Stephen Cooper, turnaround King/CEO, is moving that company forward. Turnarounds are difficult to stomach, even the turnaround of the most popular sweet on the planet. Lawsuits are many. OSIP and MSO - in our view, these are great companies with exceptional products and/or leadership. Sometimes it takes awhile for the rest of the investment world to realize that. Still love Jet Blue as a consumer, but the sector is in trouble until they figure out how to make solar-powered planes.

  7. Correction: Previously, we reported that the News Corp. market capitalization was at $15 billion. The correct market capitalization is $51 billion. See below for more details. FYI: News Corp. now owns Myspace.com, one of the most trafficked sites on the Internet.

Bottom Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information, but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission of providing the news and information you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.

Full disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"

Hot Stocks
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article. It may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they (outside of KKD, which might be a real dud) are poised to continue performing well. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

12.28.05

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Automatic Data Processing

NO

ADP

$46.84

$46.86

47.43

40.37

Flat

See the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting ProfitsÉ"

Bioteq Environmental Technologies

VERY HIGH RISK

Penny Stock in a great sector.

NO

TSX: BQE

(Note this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)

$.80

$1.03

$1.05

$.66

+29%

Water treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Breakwater Resources, Falconbridge, and Phelps Dodge. This company is only trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Canaccord Capital Corporation is offering appx. 5 million shares at $.90/unit. Units include warrants to buy at $1.25 for up to two years. Go to Bioteq.CA for more info. If your stomach is lined with steel, this could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk bet.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern Europe

No

EUROX

$33.87

$39.52

$42.49

$23.02

+17%

Vanguard seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries, in the right, growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls.

Gevity Human Resources

No

GVHR

$26.48

$26.61

$29.00

$15.45

flat

See the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting ProfitsÉ" Roy C. King became President and COO on 12.20.05, responsible for sales, marketing and biz development.

Intermix

(MySpace.com)

volume 2, issue 4

No

MIX

$7.49

$12.00

11.74

.51

+60%

News Corp. bought Intermix for $12/common share on 9.30.05. Investors received cash for their shares.

ImClone

(makers of Erbitux)

See volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article

Trading near 52 week low.

No

IMCL

$34.48

$34.47

87.24

29.51

flat

CEO resigned 11.11.05, but analysts consider it a positive move. Filed for FDA approval to use Erbitux on head and neck cancer on 8.30.05, and received "priority" review status on 10.31 from FDA. Review expected 2.28.05. Results from study are impressive. New panitumumab drug from Amgen is predicted to gain market share of colorectal cancer in about three to four years, though it is not expected to gain approval and product launch before 3Q 2006. Swissmedic, the Swiss agency for therapeutic products, approved Erbitux for head and neck cancer on 12.22.05. Merrill Lynch analyst Eric Ende thinks IMCL is a TOP SELL for 2006. We disagree.

Krispy Kreme

RISK: VERY HIGH

In turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows.

Taken off S&P Midcap 400 effective 10.27.05.

NO

KKD

$10.22

$5.52

32.70

4.40

-46%

KKD got an extension on its 12.15 deadline to file financials with the SEC. "While a number of challenges remain, I am pleased to report that we continue to make progress with the Company's turnaround," said Steve Cooper, CEO. Don't forget that Michael Sutton, the former chief accountant for the SEC, is on KKD's board. KKD has begun completing its restructuring initiatives, with optimistic words of recovery from President and COO, Steve Panagos. "We believe that the New England region has significant growth potential and we look forward to continuing to serve this important market." Turnarounds like this are very hard on the stomach. This high risk investment is only for the seasoned investor with nerves of steel.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Read Vol. 2, Iss. 7

The Venetian, Sands Macao

(1st mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)`

 

No

LVS

$37.43

$39.69

53.98

33.10

+6%

The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Go to LasVegasSands.com, click on Investor Information, and then Investor Day, to see a Web Cast on fast growing and vast the Macao market is. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is also making deals with other Macao hotels to manage their casinos and show rooms, including Intercontinental Hotel, Holiday Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La Hotel Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai Strip in Macao. Huge Consensus Insider selling, including CEO, on 9.13.05 at $35.64, totaling $366 million, for trust diversification purposes. Amounts to less than 7% of CEO trust holdings of LVS. 3Q earnings up to $91 million, compared with a year-earlier loss of $85.9 million. Bidding on new Singapore casino/resort with Singapore's leading developer and hotel group, City Developments Limited.

Martha Stewart Omniliving*

RISK: MEDIUM

Management says ad revenue is back, and merchandising is heating up.

NO

MSO

$25.91

$17.79

$37.45

$8.25

-31%

The public fired Martha's Apprentice show, and Martha's daytime show isn't becoming the next Oprah. Still MSO is projecting to break-even on operating revenue in 4Q. Deal with KB Home to build/market MSO homes. Martha's 24/7 Channel on Sirius SR launched on 11.21. Ad revenue in mags is picking up big time. Revenue should improve. Although, flops usually spook investors, for a time, Martha has enough "cooking" to make everyone forget the phrase, "You're just not working out." CFO announced on 12.16.05 that he is leaving the corp.

News Corp.

Vol. 2, iss. 10

Dividends

No

NWS.A

$15.88

$15.51

18.88

13.94

Flat

Featured article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol. 2, iss. 10. Bought Myspace, Scout Media and IGN Entertainment, all IT companies, for far less than competitors are paying for their holdings. With sales of $24.4 billion and a MC of $51.52 billion (compared to Google's $5.25 B in sales and $127 billion MC), we think investors will start taking notice of this undervalued juggernaut, especially once MySpace revenues start hitting the books. Myspace has surpassed Google in page views and user time online, which should start translating into a major jump in ad revenue this year, especially since MySpace's core demographic is the coveted 16-34 year olds.

Opsware

See issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.

RISK: MEDIUM

 

No

OPSW

$1.80

$6.98

$7.55

$3.90

+287%

CONSENSUS INSIDER BUYING (usually a very good sign). 3Q results beat Wall Street revenue expectations. Signed 56 new license deals during the quarter and four new deals worth more than $1 million, lifting sales to $15.3 million from $10.2 million last year. 3Q loss was $2.8 million, or 3 cents per share, from $6.3 million, or 8 cents per share, a year ago.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH

Trading near 52-week low.

NataliePace.com's 2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.

YES

OSIP

$63.59

$26.70

98.70

22.57

-58%

3Q net loss of $20.0 million and $77.1 million for the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2005, respectively, compared with a net loss of $123.2 million and $220.2 million a year ago. FDA approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05, Genetic based "cancer pill." 1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved for lung cancer last November. Canadian regulators approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on 9.21. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche.

RELM wireless

10.70 P/E

Micro Cap

96.38 Million

(high risk)

NO

RWC

$7.35

$7.50

8.48

1.90

+2%

$9.9 billion in new orders in 10.05 for 4th Q 2005 delivery. Could make sales double over same time last year. Two-way land mobile radios (LMRs), for govt and public safety.

Rio Tinto (ADR)

Based in England

DIVIDENDS!

 

See issue 48

RISK: LOW

NO

RTP

$89.60

$182.50

182.50

84.53

+103%

Metals demand is huge; supply is limited; stock price is high. RTP bought back 8.7% of stock as of 5.05, to the tune of US$780 million, and plans to buyback up to $1.5 billion in 2005 and 2006. Analysts say pressure on price should continue on high demand in China and Asia. Increased its dividend by 20 per cent. Finds, processes and mines minerals: copper, iron, coke (from coal), aluminum, titanium dioxide and diamonds. Rio Tinto has been added to Jim Jubak's 50 Best Stocks in the World List (eff. 9.05). Great press usually means more buyers. Hang on, and enjoy the dividends, but don't get sucked into buying high. Even Citigroup has taken RTP down to Hold from Buy. Jim Jubak reported on 12.20.05 that RTP has put plant production plans on hold due to high construction costs in Australia (where many of its plants and mines are located). As long as Jubak keeps RTP rich in headlines, expect investors to keep buying high.

Sirius

YES

SIRI

$6.02

$6.80

8.48

3.72

+13%

Sirius announced on 12.27.05 that it topped 3 million subscribers and is on track to finish the year strong. XM Satellite Radio has more than 5 million subscribers. Howard Stern (starting 1.06), Martha Stewart and Rolling Stones 24/7, have us betting on SIRI over competition XMSR. Was last year's Santa Rally present, with gains of over 100% in the last quarter of 2004. Could be as popular of a gift this year as well. SIRI beat expectations, but posted a net loss of $134 million in the third quarter on 10.27.05 due to higher programming and marketing costs. Revenue rose, as subscribers were more than 5 million, more than double from a year ago. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues. Could impact XM. SIRI CEO KARMAZIN MEL purchased $8 million last Nov. $334 million insider selling. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard on SL and CL models for 2007. Caris & Co. analyst Susan Kalla says Sirius "may be able to bring down subscriber acquisition costs to $100 per sub, leading to a breakeven in 2006." Kalla said Sirius could reach about 16 million subscribers by 2010, and predicts a 2007 cash break even point for XMSR, with 18 million subscribers by 2010.

Sohu

No

SOHU

$17.52

$18.70

23.74

14.25

+6.7%

September's feature company, in the "You Can Do Better Than Baidu" article. Financial Times ranked Sohu in Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05. (6 days after our article.) SOHU selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Insider buying, including CFO. According to comScore media Metrix, SOHU averages more minutes per visitor (at 26.3) than Baidu (at 19.2) or Alibaba (at 2.9). Sohu is just behind Alibaba in terms of page views at 13 million and 15 million respectively, compared to 6 million for Baidu. Alibaba stomped both sites in terms of unique visitors in November 2005, with 2.332 billion, compared to 198 million (Sohu) and 128 million (Baidu).

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

See Vol. 2, iss. 8

No

TREMX

$20.72

$25.07

$25.07

$12.00

+21%

See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU rocks. Western EU stalls.

Verisign,

Vol. 2, iss. 9

Ring tones, domain names, plus, including JamsterÉ

No

VRSN

$21.91

$21.82

$36.09

$17.02

flat

Q3 2005 earnings reported on Wednesday, October 19th, reflect 28% increase in revenue over last year, to $415 million. Net income was up to $45 million, over $40 million last year, same quarter. Repurchased 9 million shares for value of $215 million in the 3rd Q. Revenue shortfall in the mobile content area is expected to improve, according to CEO. Michelle Guthrie, CEO of STAR Group, Ltd. (a division of News Corp.) was named to the Board on 12.19.05. According to Stratton Sclavos, CEO and Chairman, ""Michelle's track record in building successful content and distribution relationships in both Europe and Asia will be an invaluable asset in VeriSign's long range strategy to build and operate the world's premier digital content utility." VRSN is looking to expand into mobile and broadband with Michelle's guidance.

Yahoo

Vol. 2, iss. 10

No

YHOO

$33.84

$40.22

42.13

30.30

+19%

Featured article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol. 2, iss. 10. Yahoo is the #1 web site, with more traffic, page views and time online than MSN or Google. 3Q Revenues were $1.330 billion for the third quarter of 2005, a 47 percent increase compared to $907 million for the same period of 2004. Net income for 3Q 2005 was $254 million or $0.17 per diluted share, similar to last year's results for the quarter. So why is Google's market capitalization over twice the size of Yahoo's? Do investors really think Google is twice as valuable and has twice as much future potential as Yahoo?

Stocks in Profit-Taking Range. Note: We may still like these companies (as we do Genentech and Google) for the long term as companies (which means if you have them in your 401K or long term portfolio, you might want to keep them there), but are taking profits in shorter windows, based on a market that is posting modest gains, with volatile movements. We may look to add some of these great companies to our hot news list again, if the price point should become attractive. In a market of modest gains but high volatility, profits are made in shorter windows.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

10.17.05

(Close-out))

Year High

Year Low

Gains/Loss since Close-out

LifeCell

Vol. 1, iss. 55

Price 12.28.05:

$19.21

No

LIFC

$10.25

$17.53

$25.00

$7.18

+71%

The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. Recall of products, taking a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q to reflect the recall. NY DA investigation of a company supplier of LifeCell (not LifeCell). LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing. However, a hit like this investigation could be devastating. 3Q 2005 earnings were strong, with revenue of $24.5 million compared to $15.6 million for the third quarter of 2004. Company has been quiet of late, not a great sign when there is this kind of intensity going on.s

NetGear

RISK: MEDIUM

Trading in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.

Price 12.28.05:

$19.44

No

NTGR

$12.42

$20.76

$22.67

$8.85

+67%

BusinessWeek named NTGR as one of its100 Hot Growth Companies. Distribution with Digital China, with 6,000 resellers and agents in Asia's largest market should mean continued growth. However, Consensus insider selling makes us nervous in a market with this much volatility and with executives who are new to the game and largely unproven. Profit taking in shorter windows has been working this year. Third quarter 2005 net revenue increased to $111.3 million, 10% year- over-year growth.

Sunoco

Price 12.28.05:

$79.42

No

SUN

$34.50

$73.67

$81.49

$32.35

+113%

Recent court decision assesses after-tax damages of about $40 million through Dec. 31, 2004, which Sunoco will record as a charge in the third quarter. Shut down its LaPorte and Bayport, TX polypropylene facilities and evacuated all its non-essential personnel in TX on 9.22, due to Hurricane Rita. Company press release says extended delays are expected, but hasn't provided more details yet (not a good sign). Oil should remain strong, while supply is constrained and demand is outrageous. However, near term hit to earnings has a chance of being ugly. 3Q 2005 net income was $329 million ($2.39 per share diluted) versus $104 million ($.69 per share diluted) for the 2004 3Q.


Great Staples for your retirement plan:
Genentech
closed out at $80.92, with 328% gains. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio.
Google closed out at $292.72, with 193% gains. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price.

Watch List:
Advanced Micro Devices, under $15.
Pixar, under $45.


Evergreen Solar (ESLR) under $8.00, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), under $36, Sun Power (SPWR) at $25 are on our watch list. Great future. Looking for a better prices. Interest in solar power could drive share price up, but don't lose site of the challenges of this sector, as outlined very well by Paul Woods in his article, "Solar Energy Heats Up."

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security.



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