
Vol.3 Issue 1 January 1st, 2006
Send comments and
suggestions. or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
Quote
of the Month:
"The
long-standing Wall Street tradition of ending the show with
a bang is in full swing with the reprise of the How to Put Lipstick
on a Pig self-help video. This is the award-winning feature
that details how to leave them smiling and cheering at years
end, after ten months of merciless whip sawing and no tangible
results."
Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter
From his article, "Gold
Fever, the Santa Rally and Beating a Flat Market."
|
- Myspace
Conquers Google; Takes on World. Exclusive Q&A with
MySpace co-founders Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson.
By Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.comª. NataliePace.com's
2006 Company of the Year: Myspace.
- Solar
Energy Heats Up. By Paul Woods, President & CEO
of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
- Shysters
and Scam Artists: They Seduce You, Get You Drunk on
Emotions and Then Take Your Money. And They Show
Up On Your Doorstep Every Day. Read the Q&A with Economic
Contrarian Mike Norman and Natalie Pace to Discover
the Culprit.
- You
Don't Have To Be Donald Trump To Become a Real Estate
Millionaire! You Just Have To Do Your Homework
and Get in the Game. By Bobbi McKenna.
- Gold
Fever, the Santa Rally and Beating a Flat Market.
Investment Outlook. by Kelley Wright, Managing Editor,
Investment Quality Trends Newsletter.
- The
Outlook for Gold. By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden, of
the Aden Forecast.
- Sharing
Wisdom. Fashion Designer Wants Money to Start Her
Own Label.
- Up
the Career Ladder. By Patty DeDominic, CEO, PDQ
Careers and President Emeritus, NAWBO. How to Prime
Yourself for a Better Position.
- KISS
and Retire Well: Why Keeping it Simple, Stupid, is a
Great Foundation for Your Retirement Plan. By Steve
Selengut. A Simple 8th Grade Math Formula to Ensure
You're Set for the Life of Reilly.
-
Wall Street Companies Are Cash Rich and Investing in
Buybacks Galore. By David R. Fried, Editor, The
Buyback Letter and Buyback Premium Portfolio.
- Don't
Blind Date. Get Smart and Have More Fun. Yes, It's
That Simple. By Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.comª.
- Hot
News on Cool Stocks: Go For the Glory in January. By
Natalie Pace, Top-ranked stock picker, per TipsTraders.com.
- Network,
Vote, Conferences & Galas: Don't Miss NataliePace.com's
New Website Features and Calendar Listings.
|
|
|
Myspace Conquers Google; Takes on World.
Exclusive
Q&A with MySpace co-founders Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson.
by
Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com
 |
Tom
Anderson (President) and Chris DeWolfe (CEO)
Photo Credit: Mark Robert Halper Photography |
NataliePace.com's
2006 Company of the Year: MySpace
NataliePace.com's
2006 Executives of the Year:
Chris DeWolfe, CEO, MySpace and
Tom Anderson, President, MySpace
MySpace has
surpassed Google, and is currently ranked as the number three
web site, in terms of page views and user time online, just behind
Yahoo and MSN (source: comScore Media Metrix). With 45,579,475
registered users (as of 12.28.2005), and increasing at 160,000
people per day, MySpace receives 12.5 billion page views per month
and is transforming today's popular culture and digital lifestyle.
All that in just two years of operations.
| Nov-05 |
Unique Visitors (000) |
Total Pages Viewed (MM) |
Average Minutes Per Visitor |
| Total Internet: Total Audience |
169,747 |
454,480 |
1,547.0 |
| Yahoo! Sites |
125,038 |
43,345 |
260.1 |
| MSN-Microsoft Sites |
115,526 |
19,821 |
182.3 |
| Google Sites |
90,889 |
6,736 |
30.6 |
| MYSPACE.COM |
26,684 |
12,511 |
78.0 |
Source: comScore
Media Metrix
Audience: All Persons at U.S. Home/Work/College-University Locations
Numbers like
that can launch a multi-billion dollar IPO, and indeed, in early
2005 it looked like MySpace's owners, Intermix Media, were positioning
MySpace to be the Cinderella IPO of 2006. By September 30, 2005,
however, in one of the most nimble, noncompetitive acquisitions
ever, Fox Interactive Media, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of
News Corporation, bagged MySpace (and its parent company, Intermix
Media) for just $629 million (including the buy out of preferred
shareholders and unvested stock options).
How does the
Internet's hottest new property get scooped up for a song? Although
MySpace is mixing it up with the giants on the Internet, it's
parent company, Intermix, was slogging through a series of scandals
in the summer of 2005. Indeed, when News Corporation came calling
in May 2005, Intermix Media had just been slapped with a lawsuit
for AdWare and SpyWare by Eliot Spitzer's office and the Intermix
market capitalization had sunk to $137 million. In light of the
lawsuit, lack of investor confidence and reduced cash position
of Intermix, the News Corporation offer of $629 million was considered
by many financial professionals at the time to be generous. According
to Jim Moglia, Executive Managing Director, Harris Nesbitt, "Having
a stable bidder at a price that was high for the time was a good
deal."
Since the
Fox Interactive, Inc. acquisition, MySpace, which was never named
in the Adware/Spyware lawsuit, has continued to be on a tear,
expanding its services, adding new users in the core advertising
demographic of 16-34 year olds, and attracting those users to
spend more time online.
Will MySpace
be the Mother Lode Rupert Murdoch has been searching for to attract
more investors to News Corp.? Will answering to the "man" kill
the independent spirit that attracted teens and bands to MySpace
in the first place? Can the co-founders of MySpace, who have taken
the company from zero to 160 employees and from zero to 45 million
registered users in just two years, hope to compete with experienced
executives like Terry Semel (CEO, Yahoo!) and Eric Schmidt (CEO,
Google)?
Read NataliePace.com's
exclusive Q&A with co-founders, Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson,
to discover how these two visionaries have outmaneuvered the competition,
survived two owners (Intermix and now News Corp.), created a lifestyle
portal that MySpace users, quite frankly, can no longer live without,
and plan to expand their revenue, reach and products in 2006.
Natalie
Pace -- Your new owners at News Corp. have voiced a lot of respect
for you and what you have achieved over the past two years. Ross
Levinsohn, the President of Fox Interactive Media, is quoted as
saying, "To ramp up that quickly with that kind of talent
is pretty unique." Andrew Butcher, a spokesperson for News
Corp., says that Rupert Murdoch is clearly very impressed. Is
this a case of taking ten years of R&D to become an overnight
sensation, or was it really that easy?
Chris DeWolfe
- It's a little bit of both.
Tom Anderson
-- Actually, things did go remarkably easy for us. I can't say
that we struggled for a long time; we only struggled for about
a month. When we were about a month into it, I remember thinking,
"This may not work out." Just one day, in particular,
we saw this huge spike because of people telling each other. It
just went crazy from there. We didn't have this big, long struggle
behind it. We put it up and it got popular very quickly.
Chris DeWolfe
-- One of the major reasons it worked so well is that we had a
very experienced management team. We've worked together for the
last seven to eight years. With respect to timing, when we launched
the site, social networking began to take off and the advertising
revenue stream came roaring back. Two of the most interesting
points were that we had no content costs and no customer acquisition
costs. We had to make sure we had enough money to cover engineering
and bandwidth costs, and we were confident that we understood
the advertising business.
How do
you get 43 million people to find out about your product in less
than two years, especially without a spot of advertising and when
you didn't buy a list of users?
Chris DeWolfe
-- It was really key to create a set of functions that were compelling
to our users and an efficient way to use them. Users socialize
to figure out what they're going to do on the weekend. They use
MySpace to discover new music and post events. Musicians upload
their music. People use it for entertainment purposes, or to sell
goods in the classified area. MySpace makes what they do in the
offline world a) more efficient, or b) more interesting. If you
have ten friends, and nine are on MySpace and you're not, you
feel pretty left out. People end up joining sooner rather than
later. The bigger the network gets, the faster it grows. We are
now registering 160,000 people per day with no marketing.
But it
starts somewhere. What community did you approach first and how
well did your first efforts work?
Tom Anderson
-- We didn't do traditional marketing, but we did try to find
photographers and creative people because we thought that would
make the site more interesting. In the beginning, it was all Los
Angeles -- actors, photographers and musicians. That made for
an interesting community, and brought in a lot of people. A lot
of the early growth, however, had to do with the features and
what our competitors were not allowing people to do.
Like what?
Tom Anderson
- On Friendster if you were a band and you made a profile, they
would delete it. They didn't want bands on their site. If you
made a profile for your company or for where you lived or a neighborhood
or an idea, you'd get deleted. We recognized from the beginning
that we could create profiles for the bands and allow people to
use the site any way they wanted to. We didn't stop people from
promoting whatever they wanted to promote on MySpace. Some people
have fun with it and others try to get more business and sell
stuff, like a makeup artist or a band, and we encourage them to
do that.
Bands have
a huge presence on MySpace. How did you attract over 660,000 artists
and bands to MySpace?
Chris DeWolfe
-- Tom has a deep passion and understanding for what emerging
musicians go through. He understands the frustration. I understood
the macro trends of the music business. Labels were signing fewer
acts, giving them less time to prove themselves and spending less
money on marketing. We saw a need to develop a community for artists
to get their music out to the masses. With MySpace, when they
went out on tour, they could actually tour nationally. The band
might have 20,000 friends on their list and send out a bulletin,
saying, "I'm going to be in Austin on Tuesday night. Come
see our show." It has allowed bands to make money on music
without having a deal.
You can create
a professional sounding CD, sell merchandise, and get your touring
revenue in and make a living. It gives those artists a longer
period of time to develop themselves before they get signed, or
make a living without getting signed at all.
It has
allowed bands like Fallout Boy to become successful and turn down
record deals. Jonathan Daniel, a partner with Crush Music Management
and manager of Fallout Boy and Panic, uses MySpace for all of
his bands. He says, "For us, they're a great company to work
with for two simple reasons. 1. The people that work at MySpace
actually like music. We first met Tom when he sent one of our
artists, Butch Walker, a message saying he liked his music. 2.
People actually like MySpace. We don't have to work to get kids
to go to MySpace to listen to music; they go there to listen anyway.
Our artists are good and MySpace gives them a platform, like radio
or TV, to be heard because it has an audience." Where else
in the world can you market to millions of people FOR FREE?
Chris DeWolfe
-- In the early days, there were a lot of bands signing up. They
told us that they'd like to post their lyrics and tour dates.
Users told us what they wanted to see, and we just built it. That's
how we do a lot of our updates. We catalog what people tell us
that they want. It's not super complicated.
Sifting
through the suggestions of 54 million users sounds very labor
intensive.
Chris DeWolfe
-- Ninety percent of what people write in, we've already heardÉ
Conversely, if we build a feature that doesn't work, they tell
us and we fix it. It's similar to eBay in the early days. They
would have all their sellers convene and ask them what they liked
and didn't like and took action on that. That's exactly what we
do. We're lucky to have that direct feedback mechanism.
Tom Anderson
-- One example is that on the site everyone has access to me.
What this means is that if you are a kid, you think that you can
write to me. The users have uncommon access to the president who
is deciding what the product will be. That's not something that
most people would consider a good use of their time, having the
users help us, telling us what is wrong with the site, and what's
good about it. I'm spending time in the trenches, whereas the
president might have hired someone to do that.
That's something
that we have to stick to--being in touch with what people on the
site want and staying true to our ability to be quick, and not
following the business trends and tech trends that are the hot
things, but going on our own instincts and feedback.
Most entrepreneurs
will not be lucky enough to face all of the challenges that you've
faced in the last two years. You've gone from zero to 160 employees.
You've raised millions of venture capital. You positioned your
company for an IPO, and a few months later were bought by one
of the largest media corporations on the planet, in a deal that
placed your company as pawn more than the kingpin. That's a lot
of turmoil in the captain's quarters to navigate, while at the
same time sailing on the Internet scene next to giants like Google,
Yahoo and MSN. The MySpace story might rival The Odyssey.
Tom Anderson
-- Chris had to deal with that more than I did. I focus more on
the product. Chris has kept me shielded from it, and I come in
when it is time to make a decision. We discussed an IPO. Ultimately,
it feels a lot better to me where we are. With News Corp, we get
the opportunity to grow. I think that is the smart thing to do
in the long term.
Chris DeWolfe
-- I've run businesses before. The other people on my team have
worked in senior positions in other businesses. Your partners
are the most important things. If you don't have good partners,
it can't work. Some of our competition had extremely high turnover.
It wrecks the continuity of running the business. You need to
have similar sensibilities and people you trust to fill in your
weaknesses with strengths that they have. That is underrated.
Another trap that people fall into, when you start to grow and
there is a little bit of success, is that people get on the soap
box, like pundits and venture capitalists, who tell you how to
run your business. It's important to be very disciplined in terms
of not listening to them. We were resolute to do what our users
wanted. Having discipline and saying, "No," is why we
ended up being successful.
Ben Horowitz,
the CEO of Opsware, says that when you are running a big business,
you have to listen to a lot of smart people telling you how stupid
you are.
Tom Anderson
-- In a way, it's our lack of experience that helps -- definitely
for me. The thing I like about Chris is that he's not like all
the other people I've met in business. He's able to cut to the
chase right away. We don't waste time on things. We didn't sit
down and write up this big plan and spread sheets and try to force
that imagined plan. We've been quick and nimble on our feet. I
was working from common sense. Even though Chris does have that
background, he's never been pushing me to that mold and he doesn't
follow it himself. So, we are not doing what everyone else is
doing. When we were getting popular, people were saying, "Why
aren't you doing this or that?" I thought they were ridiculous
and they thought I was ridiculous.
Chris DeWolfe
- They said that we were trying to do too much -- music, instant
messaging, blogs, etc. - and that we should just focus on one
of those. That was the antithesis of what we aimed to do. Most
of the sites that did that became boring after awhile. With that
said, once you chose your product road map, then it becomes very
important to focus on the top three to four initiatives and get
those things done. Others try to do too many things at one given
time. Our overall strategy was to build the next generation portal
that would be extremely sticky, and layer those features in and
around a social network. At any one time, we focus our developers
on the top three to four initiatives, and don't get distracted
with what others tell us we ought to do.
Well the
buzzwords today are definitely text messaging and pod casting.
What are you planning on those fronts?
Chris DeWolfe
-- Pod casting is not really that different from streaming music,
which we've done for quite a long time. Having a traditional pod
cast that people subscribe to -- the hype is ahead of the quality.
Pod casting is essentially a download, and you run into copyright
issues. What you're left with currently is pod cast talk radio.
If it's an established station, like NPR, it's fabulous. The average
person having a talk radio show will not be that great. We'll
keep our eye out and may undertake it at some point. We have a
couple of different ways that people text message one another.
There is Instant Messaging on the site. We also have an Internal
email product, where people write messages. You can also leave
testimonials on your friend's pages.
Let's talk
about growth. You launched MySpace Records on November 7, 2005
into a very crowded space at a time when the record companies
are getting slaughtered and the new music formats, like Apple's
iTunes, are getting challenged on many fronts from Yahoo Music
and Napster, to name two.
Chris DeWolfe
-- The MySpace web site is the most important thing that we are
doing right now. MySpace is a lifestyle brand. It's the first
Internet company that is a lifestyle brand and produces life events.
We had a festival with five bands where 10,000 people showed up
at Dodger stadium.
Aren't
ring tones outselling CDs? Can you make money on music in a world
where everyone wants a free download?
Chris DeWolfe
-- We embrace the ring tone companies. We embrace iTunes, Yahoo
Music and the record stores. All of those venues will be distribution
partners for us.
Supporting
the streaming of tracks of 660,000 bands that use MySpace's
music applications FREE OF CHARGE has to be very expensive. Was
there ever a time when you thought that you were supporting this
monolithic music community and not really getting any return of
investment on it?
Chris DeWolfe
-- With respect to our return for picking up the hosting/streaming
costs, which are not small, we understand the advertising market.
We feel comfortable with our ability to monetize the eyeballs
on our site. We did not create a revenue model that relies on
starving artists and the last ten dollars in their pocket. Advertisers
can afford to underwrite the streaming and bandwidth costs. When
you go to a MySpace band profile, you see their pictures, their
friends, and you can send them a personal message. It almost feels
like you're listening to the band in a communal experience. We
saw a huge need. From that point, if you can aggregate all of
these bands in one space, they are early adopters and trendsetters.
By definition, they will bring their fans to MySpace. If you go
to a show, ninety percent of the time now, the bands will say,
"Come see us on MySpace."
MySpace
is streaming never-before-heard confessions from Madonna for her
latest album, Confessions on a Dance floor. I'm sure Maverick
Records can afford the ads more than Hollywood Undead (the band
that Tom found for the first MySpace Records CD). But is MySpace
CASH POSITIVE or still a "nosebleed" as critics suggest?
Chris DeWolfe
-- I can't talk about that. News Corp. isn't breaking out our
revenue and profits. But I can tell you that we are number three
in number of ads served on the Internet, which comes to 12% of
all ads in the US on the Internet. I'm not suggesting that we
are selling at the same price as Yahoo. We sell a lot of ads and
we feel very comfortable with our business.
So, there
are no plans for cost cutting? Others have critiqued your company
for giving your web programmers a view of the Pacific Ocean, when
it is much cheaper to farm out at least some of the labor to BangaloreÉ
Chris DeWolfe
-- We have a great deal on office space, and we're at the tip
of the iceberg of where MySpace can go again. We want to expand
aggressively in wireless and internationally. Doing all of those
things will grow our revenue. Now is the time to reach out and
to expand. We haven't received pressure to do things differently.
So, the
next area of growth is wireless and international. Those application
strategies sound auspicious, and challenging. What are your plans
for product growth in the near future, outside of MySpace Records?
Chris DeWolfe
-- We're always looking for the right opportunities. We are going
to be doing some events in Sundance, in conjunction with our independent
filmmaker section on MySpace. We'll be doing more festivals, at
least one major one over the summer.
I'm sure
the MySpace summer music festival will be even more popular than
last October's two-year anniversary concert. You've certainly
won the allegiance of some great bands and music fans in the U.S.
Do you think that MySpace can be as successful at attracting the
independent film community?
Tom Anderson
-- Another part of my background was that I was in film school.
It made a lot of sense to me that the music part of our site would
work for filmmakers as well. They'll be able to upload clips.
There will be a section where you can watch what they are doing.
They'll tell where their screenings are. It took a lot longer
than we wanted to because we were growing so fast. For actors,
directors and everyone associated with film and television, this
will become as big of a resource for them as it has been for musicians.
Google's
founders hired Eric Schmidt to run Google, and since then, the
company has grown to $127.4 billion market capitalization. Do
you imagine a time when the multi-billion dollar executive should
come in and run things or, on the contrary, do you think that
would be the kiss of death for a hip, young business?
Chris DeWolfe
-- We feel really comfortable with our progress. We have huge
plans for next year -- international, wireless and expansion into
other mediums. We're hiring quickly, but in a controlled manner.
We have set a plan that we believe everyone at News Corp. will
bite off on. At the end of the day, time will tell. Continuity
with senior management is very important. It's been one of the
reasons why we've won. If we'd hired a big-time media executive
a year ago, we wouldn't be where we are right now. We have a great
relationship with our new bosses at News Corp.
Did you
get much fallout from your fans, who worried that the renegade,
independent spirit of MySpace would be sacrificed if you were
answering to "The Man"? MySpace is, among other things,
a site of free speech, personal whimsy, cutting edge music and
the young.
Tom Anderson
-- When this was announced, people were worried. It went away
pretty quickly when we didn't change. If anything now, people
will see it get better. We have more money to grow, faster bandwidth,
and more programmers working on more features. We aren't getting
pressure on designing it this or that way. It's our baby on what
we want the experience to be. News Corp. has been great about
that. I think we're going to continue to do well.
Do you
see any other benefits about being part of a large media conglomerate,
like News Corp.?
Tom Anderson
-- I just came back from a screening at 20th Century
Fox and they were asking me what bands to put in the movie.
So, I guess
one of the final areas of concern would be predators and pornography
on the site. How do you monitor and delete the creeps, and protect
the teens that are on MySpace?
Chris DeWolfe
-- These issues have been coming up. We're sensitive to it. We've
undertaken a lot of different projects, and we're always looking
for ways to make the site safer. Wired Safety wrote a bunch of
safety tips for us and we put them on our site. We have a rapid
response safety team that responds to issues very quickly. We
have a team that weeds out anything that is pornographic in nature.
Our users and our advertisers hate it.
[Editor's
note: Safety Tips are located at the bottom of the MySpace home
page.]
MySpace
as NataliePace.com's 2006 Company of the Year and Chris DeWolfe and Tom
Anderson as the 2006 Executives of the Year were the easiest calls
we, at NataliePace.com™, have ever had to make. Just catch
a rising star and hang on while the founders navigate the heavens.
In the time it took me to complete this article, another million
people registered with MySpace. The new filmmaker's section on
MySpace will be introduced at Sundance this month, and launched
officially "in the coming months," according to MySpace.
Other articles
of interest:
News
Corp. Takes on Cyber Space With Acquisition of Myspace.com
by Natalie W. Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com.
Myspace:
The Next Google. By Natalie Wynne Pace, CEO & Founder, NataliePace.com.

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|
Solar
Energy Heats Up.
by Paul
Woods. President
& CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC
 |
| Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC |
Imagine an
industry that grew 67% last year. The biggest problem for most
of the companies is meeting demand and some have several years'
worth of orders. Even the politicians who rarely have anything
good to say about corporations or capitalists have blessed these
companies, and Hilary recently called for a greater investment
here. Most states will pay part of the cost of purchasing one
of these systems and the Federal government will also chip in
some incentives. Meanwhile, these companies have barely scratched
the surface of what is a huge potential market. To make things
more interesting, these stocks are mostly undiscovered by Wall
Street analysts and institutional investors.
The
Market
Although
solar cells were developed about 50 years ago, they were a very
expensive way to produce power and had limited use for many decades.
However, as costs came down, solar became cost effective for some
remote locations not covered by the electricity grid and also
became useful in growing third world countries that have a constant
problem with power reliability and availability. As production
continued to increase, costs came down at about 7% per year until
solar began to make sense as an alternative in countries with
high electricity generation costs. Add concern over climate change
and subsidies in more parts of the world, and demand increased
further.
Like a rock
rolling down a hill, solar is gaining momentum. For the last five
years, this industry has grown at 44%. However, according to Photon
International, solar cell production increased 67% to 1256
megawatts in 2004. Not only is this one of the most rapidly growing
industries that Wall St. analysts don't follow, but growth is
currently accelerating.

These installations
translated into global revenues of about $7 billion in 2004. According
to industry sources, revenues are expected to increase to around
$30 billion by 2010. Given current order rates and the new markets
opening up, this expected growth rate of 23% might even turn out
to be conservative. Even if these forecasts pan out, solar will
still account for less than 1% of overall electricity production
in the U.S in 2010. However, once it becomes competitive without
subsidies, solar will be poised to take a much larger share of
the market for electricity, which is now around $275 billion in
the U.S. and several times that on a global basis http://www.eia.doe.gov/.
Why
Costs Will Keep Coming Down
Solar
cells were developed about 50 years ago and use semiconductor
materials to convert sunlight into electricity using a process
known as the photovoltaic effect. The percentage of sunlight converted
to electricity, known as the efficiency rate, currently tops out
at a bit over 20% although there are exotic materials in development
that may improve that rate dramatically.
This industry
is experiencing the same thing that has happened to many other
technologies. As production increases, the cost per unit is coming
down due to efficiencies of scale. According to some executives
in this industry, the cost of producing solar modules declines
by 20% each time output doubles. Given current growth projections,
this should translate into cost per unit reductions of about 5%
per year. Efficiency rates are also expected to improve a bit,
which could add another percentage point or two to annual cost
reductions.
Running
Out of Sand
Besides
bringing down the cost, one of the biggest challenges facing this
industry at present is a shortage of the polysilicon used to produce
solar panels. As this is essentially made from sand, it's hard
to imagine a shortage. However, surging demand for solar panels
is getting ahead of the production capacity for polysilicon. As
a result, the primary raw material cost for solar panels may keep
rising until more capacity comes on in 2008, and solar panel production
will probably lag behind orders in the next few years as a result.
Without going
into excruciating detail, the production process for solar panels
begins with silica and eventually spits out a silicon wafer, which
is assembled into modules that become solar panels. However, the
process differs at some key steps and several types of wafers
result.
Mono-crystalline
Wafers
These
result when silicon is melted at very high temperatures and grown
into a single crystal ingot. These are then sawed into wafers
that produce the highest efficiency (18-21%) solar panels with
the longest life, up to 45 years. If you have limited roof space
and want to generate the maximum amount of power, these are the
ticket. However, these are also the most expensive to produce
which is a big problem when raw materials costs are also going
up. The key players here are Sunpower (SPWR), Shell Solar, GE
Solar, Sanyo, BP Solar, Isofoton, Suntech, Motech, Deutsche Cells,
and Q-Cells.
Multi-crystalline
cells
These
don't require an expensive crystal-growing furnace, so cost less
to produce. Molten silicon is poured into a square mold to form
an ingot, which is then sawed to produce wafers. This produces
solar panels with lower efficiency (around 15%), a lifespan of
around 25 years, and somewhat lower costs although this process
is still relatively expensive. This is the largest segment of
the market, ending up in about half the solar panels produced.
Key players here are BP Solar, Kyocera, Sharp Solar, Suntech,
Motech, Deutsche Cells, and Q-Cells.
Polycrystalline
String Ribbon
This
eliminates ingot creation and wafer sawing, which eliminates expensive
steps in the process. Here, two sets of strings are pulled through
molten silicon. The molten silicon spans the strings and then
freezes. This string is then cut into wafers using a process that
produces significantly less loss of silicon than sawing a wafer
from an ingot. This is the current state of the art in solar panel
production and some estimate that these companies use 35% less
silicon to produce the same amount of power in a solar panel.
Improvements are continuing, and according to one company in this
industry, this percentage reduction could eventually approach
50%.
When silicon
prices are going up and polysilicon is in short supply, this technology
offers a huge competitive advantage. While the competition is
using 12-14 metric tons of polysilicon and a more expensive process
to produce solar panels with an output of one megawatt, this technology
requires only about 8.5 tons. The downside is these are a bit
less efficient (around 13%) and require more roof space to produce
the same amount of power. The two players here are Evergreen Solar
(ESLR) and RWE Schott Solar.
Amorphous
Silicon Solar Cells
In
this process, a thin film of silicon is deposited onto metal,
glass or plastic, which can then be produced in a number of different
shapes. These use a very small amount of silicon and have little
exposure to the shortage as a result. These also have the lowest
efficiency (about 8%) so need a much larger area to produce the
same amount of power. However, not everyone wants something that
looks like a science project on their roof and these can be shaped
into roof tiles, eliminating the eyesore factor. The major players
here are Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Sanyo, and Kaneka.
Where's
Wall Street?
Wall
Street and institutional investors are still recovering from a
hangover caused by the bursting of the Internet bubble and the
resulting bear market from hell. Although the line of people waiting
to sue them has finally gone down, the last thing most want to
hear about is a group of companies that are losing money and bleeding
cash in an industry that needs handouts from the government and
more money from investors to survive. With the current oversupply
of lawyers, the attitude of most is that the risks of sticking
your neck out far outweigh the potential rewards.
Catalysts
The
most important thing these companies can do to get the attention
of investors is to become profitable. Once that point has been
reached, many of the objections to these companies will disappear
and analysts will begin to focus on the backlog of orders and
industry growth prospects. Continuing to reduce costs and become
a technology that's viable without subsidies is probably the other
major hurdle. We have a high degree of confidence that both are
going to happen, with profitability in the near future for the
key players. However, it's pretty tempting to jump the gun.
Everyone remembers
the Internet bubble, but most have forgotten that too many institutional
investors throwing too much money at too few real companies were
the ultimate cause. Although there are some VERY interesting solar
stocks trading on the OTC Bulletin Board, Evergreen Solar (ESLR),
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), and maybe Sunpower (SPWR) look
like the only companies the pros would take seriously. All have
fairly small stock market capitalizations. Now, imagine banks
& trust companies, mutual funds, and investment advisors deciding
to invest a portion of their energy holdings in alternative energy,
deciding that solar is the most attractive segment, and throwing
all that money at two or three companiesÉ.
Sorry, the
greed gland started flowing a bit. Actually, there's another potential
catalyst that isn't that far fetched. ThereÔs a great deal of
angst over global climate change in some circles and these stocks
are now about as politically correct as you can get in the stock
market. Public retirement plans in blue states have a history
of meddling in the investment process for any number of politically
correct reasons and it wouldn't be surprising to see at least
some of them mandate that a small portion of their assets be invested
in alternative energy.
The
Companies
At
present, we've found 10 publicly traded companies that derive
all or a significant portion of their business from solar, some
of which are traded on the OTC Bulletin Board. We expect a few
new solar companies to come public each year, as there are some
very intriguing solar technologies in the development stage. However,
for the time being, Evergreen Solar appears to be the pick of
the litter with its breakthrough technology, enormous backlog,
triple-digit business growth, and huge potential market. We'd
like to see profits also, but expect those to come soon enough.
As disclosed
previously, Odyssey Advisors has already invested in Evergreen
Solar for selected clients. We do NOT recommend this company for
the risk averse, and suggest that everyone do their own research
before making any investment decision.
Paul Woods
is the President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC, an independent
investment advisory firm specializing in equities and fixed income.
He can be contacted at www.odysseyadvisors.com
or 310.568.4700.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright
© 2005 by Odyssey Advisors LLC

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Shysters
and Scam Artists: They Seduce You, Get You Drunk on Emotions and
Then Take Your Money.
And
They Show Up On Your Doorstep Every Day. Read the Q&A with
Economic Contrarian Mike Norman and Natalie Pace to Discover the
Culprit.
 |
Michael
Norman, the Economic Contrarian
photo: BizRadioNetwork.net |
Economic Contrarian
Mike Norman, host of his own BizRadioNetwork
show, interviewed top stock picker Natalie Pace on Tuesday, December
20, 2005. The two respected money pundits elaborated on how to
research, rather than gamble, identified the source of most bad
investments, and offer tips on how to make fabulous returns in
even a seemingly slow economy.
Mike opened
the show with one of Natalie's quotes: "Here is what poker
champs and champion investors have in common: neither gamble."
Mike:
Why don't we start there: don't gamble. You find this mentality
often in investorsÑthey're playing for the long shot, and that's
not the way to go after it. I like to use the analogy of the house,
of the actual casino. The casino only has a slight advantage over
a gambler, but it knows that over a large number of transactions
or bets, it's going to make a fabulous return. Just look at Las
Vegas where people spend billions on a hotel and still make money.
Investors have to approach the market in this fashion, right?
Natalie:
Yes, and another thing to consider is the casino has a slight
statistical advantage over the investor, but they have a huge
emotional advantage. They keep you there as long as they
can, they get you as drunk as they can, and then you make bad
mistakes and your statistical advantage goes way down. How does
that happen in the stock market? Well, when people get in and
they don't know what they're doing, they get scared, panic and
give up; they sell things at a loss and they buy things high.
This happens with people in a frenzy to buy Google at $430. You're
glad if you bought it at the IPO and can capitalize on the emotional
advantage that you have.
Mike:
Wall Street sort of does the same thing: it gets investors drunk
with emotion, hype and hysteria, and people buy into it. For me,
25 years as an investor and a trader, I've been a floor trader
on four exchanges, right down in the pits, and an economist, from
a macro perspectiveÉ I've seen people trade on the floor tick
by tick, I've seen big long term investors, technicians, the fundamental
guys like me value-oriented, and the common denominator is that
discipline, right?
Natalie:
Absolutely, and people should be aware of it. As you're saying,
what is the emotional advantage of Wall Street? The alcoholic
beverages on Wall Street are headlines and earnings reports.
Mike:
In my daily report, I have a headline index that we cover for
about 25 different markets -- stocks, bonds, currencies, gold,
oilÉ We're actually going through the news everyday and looking
at the Bullish stories and the Bear's stories. You can see as
clear as day, when the markets are peaking, there is an explosion
of Bullish headlines everywhere, and when things are horrible
and you should be buying like crazy, people aren't because the
news is awful.
Natalie:
Exactly. The whole point of it is that in order to maintain a
statistical advantageÑand I don't like to put investing and gambling
in the same sentence--but whether it's at the poker table or on
Wall Street, you have to find a way to take the emotion out
of it. You have to research what you're interested in, believe
it, buy it at a good price, be willing to sell it at a good price,
and you can't let anybody else come along and scare the heck out
of you into doing the opposite, which is what a lot of people
do all the timeÑeven really smart people and really wealthy people.
Mike:
On your website you give a whole range of advice, not just on
investing. American consumers are probably the savviest consumers
in the world. There's a brutal retail environment in this country,
stores have to offer the best deals because people just don't
buy. But when it comes to investing, people do the opposite of
that. Why is it so difficult to translate that behaviorÑwhich
has become so engrained and has really shaped our whole
retail consumption in this countryÑto investing?
Natalie:
"Buy low; sell high" sounds so easy, but it's counter-intuitive.
It means you're walking in when everybody else is saying, "It's
the Apocalypse," like in October of 2002, and going on a
buying spree, and everybody tells you how stupid and crazy you
are. Or it means at the beginning of 2000 or end of 1999 you're
saying, "We're going to have a rookie president, we've had
eight years of prosperity, NASDAQ's been running on negative earnings
for five years, so I think I'm pulling stuff off the table."
And everyone tells you you're an idiot because you don't understand
the New Economy.
Mike:
One of the problems in the world now is that we have so much access
to information that it's overload. If you were sitting on a deserted
island, had the Wall Street Journal parachuted to you every
quarter, and you could make one telephone call a quarter, you'd
do a lot better. You would see the market way down at some point
and you'd buy. Then you don't see what's going on for three months,
or even a year would be betterÉ I think people would do remarkably
better than they do now.
Natalie:
Right, and what a great message, that instead of being a headline
or news junkie, that you can actually relax and do less and that
is going to be better.
Mike:
It's said that Warren Buffet doesn't look at any of these things,
and its probably one of the ingredients in his success. Natalie,
you're known as a champion stock picker. This market is frustrating
to a lot of people, despite the fact that we've seen some of the
broader market averages and recently the NASDAQ and S and P move
to multi-year highs. But if you ask people, they'll tell you the
market is not going up. Why is there this perception?
Natalie:
From where it was in the beginning of the year, the markets really
haven't gone up measurably. There are modest returns, and a lot
of volatility. People have to be aware of that, and if you want
gains, maybe you've been spoiled in the past.
Mike:
If somebody came to you right now with money to manage, what would
you be doing? Would you do anything differently? Would you be
putting it in cash? How would you allocate that?
Natalie:
Two months ago I would have had a stronger position in cash than
I do now. I would be a little more in on the Santa Rally, although
right now you're buying in late if you're trying to capitalize
on that. Whatever you would normally allocate for cash for a client,
which would be at least a percentage of their age protected, I
would add to thatÑand mainly to look for opportunities. You
always want to be looking for opportunities, and not buying high.
Real estate is really high, and a lot of stocks. I think people
don't realize that the DOW is at an all time high. You have to
wait for good prices. On our website, we pick a stock to feature
and we follow it until it's had its run, then we may still look
at it if it's a great company. We've had 19 stocks over the past
18 months that are in positive territory, versus only four that
have gone slightly south. Of those stocks, we've had Intermix,
which had anywhere from 60% gains to quadrupled gains depending
on when you bought it, and they were the owners of Myspace, prior
to them selling it to News Corp. You have Rio Tinto, and if you
bought it over a year ago when we featured it, you still want
to hang onto it because metals mining companies will continue
to do well. In this kind of environment, you have to be looking
at taking your gains in shorter windows. You have to be
very disciplined about buying low and selling high. You need a
stronger position in cash so that you can take advantage. For
example, Advanced Micro Devices is $30 a share right now, and
just a little over a year ago there was a huge fall out in the
chips sector and you could have picked it up at $11.
Mike:
What about bonds and 13 rate hikes by the Fed over the last year
and a half, an almost a flat, inverted yield curve nowÑnobody
wants to go near it. You can get a pretty decent yield just on
cash and bonds, compared to dividend yields, and that looks pretty
attractive. What do you think about bonds?
Natalie:
The two people who write for us on that area think that you have
to stress shorter maturity, and you want to make sure it's higher
quality. You have to be looking to buy low and then hold on
to it until you're selling at a profit. With interest rates
rising, the prices on bonds should be going lower, so you might
wait to buyÉ
Mike:
Right, we're just starting to get into an area that's looking
more attractive, but yields could rise still a little more. If
the yield curve inverts, that will have some implications in the
economy. What do you think of energy, which has become
such a hot area over the last couple years?
Natalie:
The prices are kind of high. It's twofold: the supply is not going
to meet the demand in the future. I think the demand is going
to continue to go up, and they're going to have to start opening
new refineries and putting in infrastructure to meet the demand.
On the other hand, you will have companies investing in expensive
infrastructureÉ but I'm a short-term gal, I'm a "buy low
sell high" gal. I've taken some profits on Sunoco, and they
had a delightful run for us. They were in the Gulf region during
Hurricane Rita and they haven't yet released how much damage there
has been to their infrastructure or how much of a hit they are
going to be taking to earnings. I think energy will be more volatile
in the coming year, but it will still be high. You're not going
to be looking at 2003 prices for gas or shares.
Mike:
You mentioned some of the retailers that you bought in mid-October.
They were beaten down so much. I bought Gap at $16, they rallied
up to about $18, and it seems like it's stalling out. Would you
be taking profits now?
Natalie:
With the energy prices so high, even if retailers get people to
buy in at their stores, their bottom line won't be greatÑeven
if they're top line is better. I've heard that there have been
frenzies over just the bottom, discount prices, and that worries
me. With retailers and all stocks these days, I take whatever
I can get whenever I get it. I personally traded Sohu in the last
couple months, which is a Chinese Internet company. In my view,
it has better legs than the other two that have gotten better
headlines: Alibaba, which is now partnered with Yahoo!, and Baidu,
which had that explosive IPO that then retreated quite a lot.
Sohu has the contracts for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The founder/CEO
was educated at MIT. Dr. Charles Zhang is very "in"
with the Chinese government, and he's been listed by the Financial
Times as one of the top Internet entrepreneurs in the world.
The stock dropped to $15, I bought it, then it popped up to $20,
and I sold it. Now it's trading back about $19. If you make a
profit, you better take it in this environment.
Mike:
I just wish I had listened to that advice with my Exxon Mobile.
Are you looking for the timing in these things? Are you looking
at charts as well?
Natalie:
I don't follow that. I'm really looking for the breakout company,
and I want to have 100 reasons why it's better than all the competition.
Then I want to know what its historical range is and buy it low.
I'm also looking at the behavior of the markets themselves. For
instance, Google is a long-term hold for your portfolio, but it
might be a short-term sell to just take some profits off the table.
Mike:
I think so, thank you Natalie for coming on the show!
So who
are the shysters and scam artists that show up on your doorstep
daily, get you drunk, capitalize on your euphoria or panic and
steal your money? Headlines! Take the emotion out of your game,
and improve your odds of winning.

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You
Don't Have To Be Donald Trump To Become a Real Estate Millionaire!
by Bobbi
McKenna
You
Just Have To Do Your Homework and Get in the Game.
 |
| Bobbi
McKenna and LA Mayor, Anthony Villaraigosa |
I'm best known
as a book coach, book publisher, and the publisher of the Internet
Magazine "Giving You A Voice," but I'm also a real estate
investor who was one of the interview subjects for the recently
published Millionaire Real Estate Investor. If you think
Real Estate Investing is too hard, let me share this fact with
you: I made $820,000 on five real estate deals that took up about
ten work days of my time: 80 hours of work.
And that $820,000
doesn't include rental income or tax breaks.
How
Did I Do It?
- I bought
for the right price,
- I looked
at enough properties to be able to tell what a good deal was
("price" plus "terms"),
- I bought
in the right area,
- I bought
at the right time,
- I sold
at the right time,
- I was decisive
once I had the necessary information, and
- I used
a knowledgeable and experienced Real Estate Broker who had sold
well over one hundred properties.
An Example:
Let
me tell you a story about one of my successful real estate deals.
In 2003,
mortgage interest rates fell to 5.2% (for a 30 year fixed mortgage).
My husband
and I live in Denver, Colorado, but I'm from the Oregon coast.
It has always been my dream to live near the ocean in sunny Southern
California.
My husband
and I already owned a luxury condo in Long Beach where my son
and his college roommate were living, but I knew it wouldn't be
big enough to hold all of my husband's books and CD's when we
retired. I called my Southern California Real Estate Broker, and
asked her to help me find me a large house in a beach community.
She emailed me listings.
Buy
for The Right Price:
At first,
I thought Long Beach would have the best values. But as I surveyed
the stats on the property listings, I discovered that real estate
prices in Long Beach had already surged, while prices in Huntington
Beach had risen only incrementally.
Act
Decisively:
On a
Sunday night, I found a spectacular property with a swimming pool
close to the beach - which I thought was under-priced. I bought
a plane ticket and flew to Orange County the next morning.
Buy
in The Right Area:
I know
that people like to say that Southern California is too crowded
and congested, but the reason it's so crowded is because it has
a powerful economy that provides good-paying jobs, and it has
a wonderful climate.
I felt that
as "boomers" retired, many of them would want to live
at the beach. (In fact, during the two years that my husband and
I owned property in Huntington Beach, I met people who were retiring
and moving to the beach from Los Angeles County.)
Buy
At The Right Time:
I inspected
the house in Huntington Beach, and made an offer the same day.
This was in March - early in the real estate season, which peaks
in June, July, and August - and I closed on the property the end
of May 2003. The sellers did a "rent back" that covered
my mortgage until well into June.
I had "locked
in" the low interest rate and frozen the price in March.
As a result, I was well positioned to hold on to the property
or to flip it.
I used the
house when I came to LA on business, and one of my friends rented
a bedroom and paid part of the utility costs. My daughter moved
out to California to attend college and lived there, too. We swam
in the pool, took morning runs on the beach, and had family vacations
there with all four of our children.
Sell
At The Right Time:
Over
time, I was pretty sure that the house would go to a million,
but I didn't realize it would happen in only 27 months. When it
hit a million in August 2005, I sold it. (Remember the best times
to sell are during the summer months. In my experience, fall and
winter are not optimal selling times, but they are great buying
seasons.)
Who
Should Buy A Home?
Everyone
who can possibly afford it. There, I've said it. Sure, I know
it's hard in cities like New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco,
San Diego, Boston, and Washington, DC. When my husband and I bought
our first home, we lived in Washington, DC, where real estate
was, and is, very expensive. In addition, interest rates at that
time were an astonishing 14%!
But we took
the plunge anyway, and it was the best economic decision we ever
made. We made a lot of money on that house. Best of all: We were
in the game!
Who
Shouldn't Buy A Home?
There
are times when quality of life considerations may outweigh the
economic advantages of buying. If you live in an area where real
estate is very expensive and you would have to move very far away
from your place of employment, you may choose to rent. But make
no mistake about it. Your decision could have long-term negative
economic consequences.
You will either
want to find other investments to take the place of real estate,
or buy rental property in another area of your city or state that
isn't so expensive. That's what several of my Southern California
friends have done.
A
Final Story:
Let
me tell you a little bit more about the Long Beach condo I mentioned
earlier. When our son decided to go to Cal State Long Beach, I
convinced my husband that we should buy a condo instead of renting
an apartment for our son.
"During
the four years he's in college, we'll make enough money to pay
for his college education," I said. (Paying out of state
tuition - we live in Colorado - that would come to about $60,000.)
The property
I selected was in a gated, locked luxury complex with two inside
parking spaces, a balcony, a pool, and beautiful grounds. It was
also less than a mile from campus in a great neighborhood, and
a free campus shuttle stopped right out front.
We easily
found a roommate for my son who paid rent and half the utilities.
With the roommate, plus the tax break as a second home and depreciation
as a rental property, my son lived there for free, and when he
moved to Hollywood after only two years, we sold it and made $135,000.
We rolled the equity over directly into the new property. (Be
sure to consult with your own accountant. This should not be taken
as tax or accounting advice.)
Action
Steps:
- Sign up
for a FREE one-year subscription to Giving You A Voice Magazine
at www.givingyouavoice.com.
As a subscriber, you will get a FREE 50-page Real Estate E-Book:
"HOW TO KEEP THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE FROM BLOWING UP IN
YOUR FACE!" with Intermediate and Advanced Strategies for
Investors. (I encourage you to send me your own real estate
success stories.)
- Find a
knowledgeable and successful Real Estate Broker who has sold
a lot of properties,
- Go out
and start looking at properties so that you will know a great
deal when you find one.
Bobbi McKenna
is a book coach and book publisher as well as the publisher of
the Internet Magazine: GivingYouAVoice.com. She is an internationally
recognized speaker who teaches at venues such as The Learning
Annex and The Smithsonian Institution, and is a member of the
National Press Club, The Denver Press Club, and The Society of
Professional Journalists. She is also a successful real estate
investor and co-author of The Million Dollar Woman.

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Gold
Fever, the Santa Rally and Beating a Flat Market.
by Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor, Investment Quality Trends Newsletter
 |
Kelley
Wright, Managing Editor,
Investment Quality Trends Newsletter |
SANTA
RALLY TOPS OUT IN JANUARY?
Until
November, this has been a relatively dismal year for the markets.
Not to worry though because the long-standing Wall Street tradition
of ending the show with a bang is in full swing with the reprise
of the How to Put Lipstick on a Pig self-help video. This
is the award-winning feature that details how to leave them smiling
and cheering at years end, after ten months of merciless whip
sawing and no tangible results.
Initial reviews
suggest this year's campaign is progressing nicely. While it is
still early in December much of the financial press seems to already
be in full Santa Claus Rally mode and form. After reviewing the
situation fully we have concluded that this posture is completely
warranted. After all, look where the market is now; a whole 1.50%
higher than it was in January (as measured by the Dow). Yee haw
cowboy!
Admittedly,
a 4.30% GDP number is pretty impressive. Heaven knows that the
natural disasters, oil spikes and the Fed's tightening campaign
were more than sufficient to put the consumer, and therefore the
economy, into the tank. The fact that it hasn't happened suggests
the consumer and economy are more resilient than previously believed,
or that there were lines of credit that had been as yet untapped.
If the latter is the case, one has to wonder where on earth the
source could be because it isn't coming from incomes and it is
hard to believe there is any real estate equity left that hasn't
been extracted. More most certainly will be revealed.
If memory
serves correctly, 2004 ended with a bang and then the markets
topped out in January.
GOLD
FEVER IN 2006
With
short-term rates significantly higher than at this time last year
and with the Fed seemingly intent on further tightening, not to
mention that oil prices, while well off their highs, are also
significantly higher, it begs the question what happens if oil
begins to spike again?
Also interesting
is that gold has finally closed above $500 an ounce. While this
won't surprise anyone that has been following that market, as
of yet it hasn't caught the fancy of the press or the public.
You can bet this will happen after the first of the year, as will
the explanations for why the metal is in obvious bull form.
I will suggest
now that 95% of the commentary will be wrong. Most of it will
be very inflation-centric, as that is the template with gold.
My take right now is that the gold market is technically driven.
Long-established areas of resistance are being taken out and this
has the chart-monkeys all excited.
For Trendphiles
our primary gold vehicle in the past has been Barrick (ABX).
Unfortunately, ABX currently resides in our Faded Blue Chip category.
As long-term subscribers are fully aware we have long-standing
rules about initiating positions in stocks that are not currently
in Select Blue Chip status.
I am not going
to make any news by breaking those rules now but from a technical
perspective the gold market has all the characteristics of a great
trade.
I would be
remiss in not mentioning a recent piece by Mark Hulbert in the
Hulbert Financial Digest. It has been our long-held contention
that one of the ingredients of investing success is to focus on
the market of stocks rather than the stock market. Mr. Hulbert
has posted a piece with some accompanying research that appears
to confirm our contention.
Well-known
indexes such as the Dow and the S&P 500 cover specific areas
of the economy and the markets. The Dow-Wilshire 5000 is a much
broader representation of the economy and the markets if for no
other reason than the fact it consists of 5000 companies. As a
whole these indexes can go through periods where there is no perceptible
movement. Two terms for this are moving sideways or trading flat.
Subscribers may be familiar with a chart of the Dow from 1964
through 1981, which we have published from time to time, that
illustrates this concept.
The markets
have not made a new high since late 1999 to early 2000 and have
been in a relatively tight trading range ever since. Many have
described this period as a flat market as well. Our contention
has always been that investors can find success in the stock market
by focusing on companies that offer historic instances of value
via their dividend yield and are not dependent on the performance
of the broad market.
Mr. Hulbert
has published a study that tracks the performance of a good number
of newsletters that have recorded positive results despite the
lack of progress in the broad market indexes. Of the top twenty
newsletters with the best risk-adjusted performance between October
31, 1999 and October 31, 2005, Investment Quality Trends
takes the top spot with an annualized gain of 13.40%. Important
to note is that this performance was accomplished with approximately
20% less risk than the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000.
While we generally
rank in the top spot for all the categories and time frames for
which we are eligible, this study affirms our belief that concentrating
on stocks rather than markets works, period.
Investment
Quality Trends (at IQTrends.com) is rated the #1 Top Performing
Newsletter for five-year, ten-year and fifteen-year risk-adjusted
returns by Hulbert's Financial Digest. If you are interested in
accessing Mr. Wright's newsletter and to post those kinds of gains
yourself, go to www.IQTrends.com.

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The Outlook for Gold.
by Mary
Anne & Pamela Aden, of the Aden Forecast.
Reprinted
by permission of www.adenforecast.com
and courtesy of www.AssetStrategies.com.
GOLD:
MEGA BULL MARKET UNDERWAY
Gold
recently hit an 18-year high. This is now starting to attract
some attention, even though gold has already risen 92% over the
past 4 1⁄2 years, in its strongest rise since the 1970s.

Nevertheless,
many investors are unaware of this ongoing bull market rise. That's
actually good because it means gold's bull market is still in
its early stages and it has a lot more upside potential.
WHAT'S
DRIVING GOLD
  |
Mary
Anne & Pamela Aden,
Market Analysts AdenForecast.com |
Most important,
a new investment era began in 1999, out of financial assets like
stocks into tangible assets like gold, and this will be the key
to successful investing in the years ahead. When these mega shifts
take place, the trend tends to last for years, as we saw in the
1980s and 1990s when stocks were stronger than gold, but that's
now changed. Gold has been stronger than stocks over the past
six years and that's where your primary investment focus should
be.
This new era
is being fueled by massive government spending, the largest debts
and deficits the world has ever known, the war on terror, record
high oil and commodity prices, the real estate bubble, growing
uncertainty, and the booming growth and demand out of China, as
well as other emerging countries.
These factors
provide a positive backdrop for gold and so does the weak U.S.
dollar, which is poised to head even lower over time. The dollar,
for instance, has already lost over 90% of its purchasing power
since 1913 and it has dropped 70% since the early 1970s when it
stopped having a link to gold, becoming instead a floating paper
currency. Throughout history, whenever a currency stopped having
a link to gold it dropped, and the dollar has not been an exception.
On the other
hand, gold is the ultimate currency and it always has been. Gold
is real money and it's maintained its value over the centuries.
In fact, it has a 5000-year track record and no other investment
can make that claim.
GOLD:
LOOKING GOOD
Looking
at gold's technical big picture on the chart below, you can see
it's in a strong 35-year uptrend. A couple of years ago it broke
above its downtrend since 1980. It's now at an 18-year high and
its next resistance is at $500. Once gold is able to rise above
that level, there will be no further resistance until gold reaches
the 1980 top area at $850.

For now,
however, gold has risen far and fast, and it's due for a normal
downward correction in the months ahead. If you haven't bought
gold yet, that'll provide a good opportunity to buy.
Mary Anne
& Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden
Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and
recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other
major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com.
NataliePace.com note:
The opinions expressed in this article are solely the opinions
of the writers do not represent the positions of NataliePace.com. NataliePace.com
does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information
center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual
investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in
their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies
and/or investment vehicles mentioned in this article are not intended
to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.

|
|
Sharing
Wisdom.
Fashion
Designer Wants Money to Start Her Own Label.
In our
monthly Sharing Wisdom feature, NataliePace.com subscribers get answers
to questions about money, career, business, investing (and really
what doesn't have an element of money to it?). The collective
experience, success and wisdom of the NataliePace.com circle can help
you to follow the golden brick road to your dream life.
This
month, a young professional woman writes:
"I am a Product Designer with a Bachelor of Science in
Industrial Design from the Art Center College of Art. Since graduation,
I've been designing footwear and accessories, and I want to launch
my own line of branded products. I've spoken to a couple business
consultants, and am looking into speaking with manufacturers in
Asia. I have the know how when is comes to the target market and
the type of products I want to develop, and I have dealt with
the manufacturing process and research, etc... Could please give
me some advice as to how to get some investors or where to go
from here for finances?"
If you are
interested in Sharing Wisdom on where to find the money to start
your own footwear and accessories business and what pitfalls to
avoid and wise tips to incorporate, please go to the Sharing Wisdom
bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com.
Click on the topic: "Fashion Designer Seeks Money."
We will be
selecting the best tips to include in next month's article. If
you are interested in being quoted, be sure to include a short
bio and your web site information, so that we can contact you.
Also, in order to make the publishing deadline, you'll need to
post your response before January 15th, 2006. Thanks
in advance for helping NataliePace.com to continue to "spread wealth
by sharing wisdom."
Got
a Question for our Experts?
Post on the NataliePace.com bulletin board and/or email info@NataliePace.com
with your burning money questions-- be they business, investing
or personal -- and we will continue the dialog by having our very
knowledgeable subscribers answer your most pressing needs. Also,
feel free to visit our Sharing Wisdom bulletin board at www.NataliePace.com
and post your question there in a new topic.

|
|
Up
the Career Ladder.
by Patty
DeDominic, CEO, PDQ Careers and President Emeritus, NAWBO.
How
to Prime Yourself for a Better Position.
 |
Patty
DeDominic (with her husband Gene Sinser)
CEO, PDQ Careers & President Emeritus, NAWBO |
Attracting
the attention of the right executive recruiters is an
art that most people don't have the luxury of learning how to
do. It's very much like the old cliché of getting a bank
loan: when you need the money no one wants to lend to you.
So, how do you help yourself get offers for better positions?
Using the experience gained in running PDQ Personnel Services
for over two decades and in talking to several busy executive
recruiters I will give you a few pointers now.
It helps to understand that executive recruiters are paid by employers,
not you the job candidate. In becoming the agent for the
client /company, their job is to screen out all people who do
not fit the criteria agreed to with the client and then present
only those candidates who can add the most value to the employer. This
is why you may find a dream job advertised or referred to, but
not be invited to apply.
Understand that you are not the client, so don't expect
career counseling at an executive recruiter's expense. If
you need and want counseling, then get yourself to a career coach
and expect to pay for it. Remember that Tiger Woods stills works
with his golf pro, actors have coaches and many professionals
are finding this tool a valuable advantage as they progress around
the maze of employment options and up the career ladder.
Get clear about your goals and learn to share them quickly.
You may think it makes you sound flexible and easy to get
along with when you say you are totally open to new opportunities
but this isn't what an executive recruiter needs to hear. These
skills plus resiliency will make you more successful, however
for the executive recruiter please be self-directed in your own
profession or industry.
Fish where you know the big fish are. Do the research to
find out who is respected in your profession and prepare to let
them know about your credentials and expanded objectives.
Do call and get acquainted with the leading recruiters in your
field. Have your resume at the ready and be prepared to talk
about your accomplishments and your goals. This isn't bragging;
it is networking and you need to do it before you are unemployed.
Most firms are moving to online recruiting so don't be put off
if you aren't invited in to meet face to face. Phone and
email dialogs are enough to get you in a database, which will
be referred to when the right search assignment comes in.
Be discreet and professional.
Most recruiters are now specializing in industries or skill sets,
so it is not necessary nor recommended to blast your resume all
over town. Executive recruitment fees can easily reach $50-100,000
per successful search and placement which demands that the search
firm screen out lookie-loos.
Do your thing and do get out in your professional circles and
trade associations.
Seek high visibility assignments and be prepared to talk briefly
about your accomplishments. The headhunter's ideal candidates
are those who are currently working, respected by their peers
and customers. It is important to be able to succinctly tell
others both in words and by your actions not only who you are,
but also what you are most interested in and most importantly
what you can do for them.
Stay up
beat and don't burn those bridges.
Executive recruiters due diligence requires them to evaluate not
only your track record and reputation but to make assumptions
about how well you will perform in the next job. In evaluating
whom to refer on to clients, we will avoid those who badmouth
former employers, and who can't point to past and current raving
fans.
Stay in touch. Many experts in executive transition have
said that when you land the best job of your life is the right
time to reach out and plant more seeds. This can be a tricky
one since it could be misinterpreted if your current employer
learns of this. Sending thank you letters to all who helped
you along the way and a progress "newsletter" after the first
few months is a great way to keep your network primed.
If you need more advice please drop us a note at info@pdqcareers.com,
and we will be happy to make more specific suggestions in your
case.
Patty DeDominic is the Chief Executive Officer of PDQ Careers
Group of Companies, Staffing Partners to America's Finest
Employers at www.pdqcareers.com.
Don't miss
the opportunity to chat with Patty one-on-one in the NataliePace.com
chat room on Wednesday, January 11th, 2006 at 8:45
a.m. PST. Available to NataliePace.com subscribers only.
|
|
KISS
and Retire Well: Why Keeping it Simple, Stupid, is a Great Foundation
for Your Retirement Plan.
by Steve
Selengut.
A
Simple 8th Grade Math Formula to Ensure You're Set
for the Life of Reilly.
The reason
people assume the risks of investing in the first place is the
prospect of achieving a higher rate of return than is attainable
in a risk free environmentÉi.e., an FDIC insured bank account.
Risk comes in various forms, but the average investor's primary
concerns are "credit" and "market" riskÉ particularly
when it comes to investing for income. Credit risk involves the
ability of corporations, government entities, and even individuals,
to make good on their financial commitments; market risk refers
to the certainty that there will be changes in the Market Value
of the selected securities. We can minimize the former by selecting
only high quality (investment grade) securities and the latter
by diversifying properly, understanding that Market Value changes
are normal, and by having a plan of action for dealing with such
fluctuations.
You don't have to be a professional Investment Manager to professionally
manage your investment portfolio, but you do need to have a long
term plan and know something about Asset AllocationÉ a portfolio
organization tool that is often misunderstood and almost always
improperly used within the financial community. It's important
to recognize, as well, that you do not need a fancy computer program
or a glossy presentation with economic scenarios, inflation estimators,
and stock market projections to get yourself lined up properly
with your target. You need common sense, reasonable expectations,
patience, discipline, soft hands, and an oversized driver. The
K. I. S. S. Principle needs to be at the foundation of your Investment
Plan; an emphasis on Working Capital will help you Organize, and
Control your investment portfolio.
Planning for Retirement should focus on the additional
income needed from the investment portfolio, and the Asset Allocation
formula [relax, 8th grade math is plenty] needed for goal achievement
will depend on just three variables: (1) the amount of liquid
investment assets you are starting with, (2) the amount of time
until retirement, and (3) the range of interest rates currently
available from Investment Grade Securities. If you don't
allow the "engineer" gene to take control, this can
be a fairly simple process. Even if you are young, you need to
stop smoking heavily and to develop a growing stream of incomeÉ
if you keep the income growing, the Market Value growth (that
you are expected to worship) will take care of itself. Remember,
higher Market Value may increase hat size, but it doesn't pay
the bills.
First deduct any guaranteed pension income from your retirement
income goal to estimate the amount needed just from the investment
portfolio. Don't worry about inflation at this stage. Next, determine
the total Market Value of your investment portfolios, including
company plans, IRAs, H-BondsÉ everything, except the house, boat,
jewelry, etc. Liquid personal and retirement plan assets only.
This total is then multiplied by a range of reasonable interest
rates (6%, to 8% right now) and, hopefully, one of the resulting
numbers will be close to the target amount you came up with a
moment ago. If you are within a few years of retirement age, they
better be! For certain, this process will give you a clear idea
of where you stand, and that, in and of itself, is worth the effort.
Organizing the Portfolio involves deciding upon an appropriate
Asset AllocationÉ and that requires some discussion. Asset Allocation
is the most important and most frequently misunderstood concept
in the investment lexicon. The most basic of the confusions is
the idea that diversification and Asset Allocation are one and
the same. Asset Allocation divides the investment portfolio into
the two basic classes of investment securities: Stocks/Equities
and Bonds/Income Securities. Most Investment Grade securities
fit comfortably into one of these two classes. (Diversification
is a risk reduction technique that strictly controls the size
of individual holdings as a percent of total assets.) A second
misconception describes Asset Allocation as a sophisticated technique
used to soften the bottom line impact of movements in stock and
bond pricesÉ a subtle "market timing" device. Finally, the Asset
Allocation Formula is often misused in an effort to superimpose
a valid investment planning tool on speculative strategies that
have no real merits of their own, for example: annual portfolio
repositioning, market timing adjustments, and Mutual Fund shifting
[editor's note: which put more money in the broker's pocket].
The
Asset Allocation formula itself is sacred, and if
constructed properly, should never be altered due to conditions
in either Equity or Fixed Income markets. Changes in the personal
situation, goals, and objectives of the investor are the only
issues that can be allowed into the Asset Allocation decision-making
process.
Here are a few basic Asset Allocation Guidelines:
(1) All Asset Allocation decisions are based on the Cost Basis
of the securities involved. The current Market Value may be more
or less and it just doesn't matter. (2) Any investment portfolio
with a Cost Basis of $100,000 or more should have a minimum of
30% invested in Income Securities, either taxable or tax free,
depending on the nature of the portfolio. Tax deferred entities
(all varieties of retirement programs) should house the bulk of
the Equity Investments. This rule applies from age 0 to Retirement
Age (- 5 years). Under age 30, it is a mistake to have too much
of your portfolio in Income Securities. (3) There are only two
Asset Allocation Categories, and neither is ever described with
a decimal point. All cash in the portfolio is destined for one
category or the other. (4) From Retirement Age (- 5) on, the Income
Allocation needs to be adjusted upward until the "reasonable
interest rate test" says that you are on target or at least
in range. (5) At retirement, between 60% and 100% of your portfolio
may have to be in Income Generating Securities.
Controlling, or Implementing, the Investment Plan will
be accomplished best by those who are least emotional, most decisive,
naturally calm, patient, generally conservative (not politically),
and self actualized. Investing is a long-term, personal, goal
orientated, non- competitive, hands on, decision-making process
that does not require advanced degrees or a rocket scientist IQ.
In fact, being too smart can be a problem if you have a tendency
to over analyze things. It is helpful to establish guidelines
for selecting securities, and for disposing of them. Don't buy
any stock unless it is down at least 20% from its 52 week high.
Take a reasonable profit (using 10% as a target) as frequently
as possible. With a 40% Income Allocation, 40% of profits and
dividends would be allocated to Income Securities.
For Fixed Income, focus on Investment Grade securities, with above
average but not "highest in class" yields. With Variable
Income securities, avoid purchase near 52-week highs, and keep
individual holdings well below 5%. Keep individual Preferred Stocks
and Bonds well below 5% as well. Closed End Fund positions may
be slightly higher than 5%, depending on type. Take a reasonable
profit (more than one years' income for starters) as soon as possible.
With a 60% Equity Allocation, 60% of profits and interest would
be allocated to stocks.
Monitoring Investment Performance the Wall Street way is
inappropriate and problematic for goal-orientated investors. It
purposely focuses on short-term dislocations and uncontrollable
cyclical changes, producing constant disappointment and encouraging
inappropriate transactional responses to natural and harmless
events. Coupled with a Media that thrives on sensationalizing
anything outrageously positive or negative (Google and Enron,
Peter Lynch and Martha Stewart, for example), it becomes difficult
to stay the course with any plan, as environmental conditions
change. First greed, then fear, new products replacing old, and
always the promise of something better when, in fact, the boring
and old fashioned basic investment principles still get the job
done. Remember, your unhappiness is Wall Street's most coveted
asset. Don't humor them, and protect yourself. Base your performance
evaluation efforts on goal achievementÉ yours, not theirs. Here's
how, based on the three basic objectives we've been talking about:
Growth of Base Income, Profit Production from Trading, and
Overall Growth in Working Capital.
Base Income includes the dividends and interest produced
by your portfolio, without the realized capital gains that should
actually be the larger number much of the time. No matter how
you slice it, your long-range comfort demands regularly increasing
income, and by using your total portfolio cost basis as the benchmark,
it's easy to determine where to invest your accumulating cash.
Since a portion of every dollar added to the portfolio is reallocated
to income production, you are assured of increasing the total
annually. If Market Value is used for this analysis, you
could be pouring too much money into a falling stock market to
the detriment of your long-range income objectives.
Profit Production is the happy face of the market value
volatility that is a natural attribute of all securities. To
realize a profit, you must be able to sell the securities that
most investment strategists (and accountants) want you to marry
up with! Successful investors learn to sell the ones they love,
and the more frequently (yes, short term), the better. This is
called trading, and it is not a four-letter word. When you
can get yourself to the point where you think of the securities
you own as high quality inventory on the shelves of your personal
portfolio boutique, you have arrived. You won't see Wal-Mart holding
out for higher prices than their standard markup, and neither
should you. Reduce the markup on slower movers, and sell damaged
goods you've held too long at a loss if you have to.
Working Capital Growth (total portfolio cost basis) just
happens, and at a rate that will be somewhere between the average
return on the Income Securities in the portfolio and the total
realized gain on the Equity portion of the portfolio. It will
actually be higher with larger Equity allocations because frequent
trading produces a higher rate of return than the more secure
positions in the Income allocation. But, and this is too big
a but to ignore as you approach retirement, trading profits are
not guaranteed and the risk of loss (although minimized with a
sensible selection process) is greater than it is with Income
Securities. This is why the Asset Allocation moves from
a greater to a lesser Equity percentage as you approach retirement.
So is there really such a thing as an Income Portfolio that needs
to be managed? Or are we really just dealing with an investment
portfolio that needs its Asset Allocation tweaked occasionally
as we approach the time in life when it has to provide the yachtÉ
and the gas money to run it? By using Cost Basis (Working Capital)
as the number that needs growing, by accepting trading as an acceptable,
even conservative, approach to portfolio management, and by focusing
on growing income instead of ego, this whole retirement investing
thing becomes significantly less scary. So now you can focus on
changing the tax code, reducing health care costs, saving Social
Security, and spoiling the grandchildren.
Steve
Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book
that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read, and A Millionaire's
Secret Investment Strategy.
NataliePace.com
note: The opinions expressed in this article are solely the opinions
of the writer and do not represent the positions of NataliePace.com.
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media
and information center. This article is intended to educate and
inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive
edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies
and/or investment vehicles mentioned in this article are not intended
to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.

|
|
Wall
Street Companies Are Cash Rich and Investing in Buybacks Galore.
by David
R. Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter and Buyback Premium Portfolio
 |
| David
R. Fried, Editor, The Buyback Letter and Buyback Premium Portfolio
|
Investors
nervous about the health of the economy as 2005 draws to a close
and 2006 dawns need look no further than one stealth indicator:
stock buybacks by the country's biggest companies are coming fast
and furious.
Eighty percent
- an extraordinary number -- of the companies in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average are repurchasing their own stock, and thus
returning excess cash to shareholders. When the biggest companies
are buying back, it means they know their stock is undervalued,
and represents a bargain relative to where they expect it to be
in the future.
You can see
the gritty details for yourself on the chart below, but let me
point out a couple of things. The largest repurchaser, DuPont,
decreased its shares outstanding by nearly 15% this year. That's
an amazing feat for a company that size, and a real statement
by the board of directors at DuPont that not only is the stock
seriously undervalued, but the future looks promising. Among the
20% of companies in the Dow not repurchasing, only Altria has
issued more than 1% (1.5% to be exact) of additional stock over
the prior 12-month period ending at the end of November. And Altria,
which had been keeping money in reserve pending the outcome of
lawsuits, got a huge boost Friday when Philip Morris USA won in
an overturned $10 billion verdict over claims it deceptively marketed
"light" cigarettes. Presumably some of that money held
in reserve will be eligible to be used for buybacks now.
In this chart,
you'll see that 24 of the 30 stocks (80%) have decreased their
shares outstanding this year. But consider this - even some of
those final six on the list are still doing at least a modest
amount of buying back simply to keep up with stock dilution. In
other words, realize that even those six companies on the list
that do not have negative share counts year over year have ONLY
a negligible 0% or 0.1% or 0.2% increase in shares. The average
Dow stock decreased its shares outstanding 2.2% during the 12-month
period ending 11/30/05 vs. an increase of 0.7% in shares outstanding
for the S&P 500. (This increase would be even larger
if you removed the Dow 30 from the S&P calculation.)
|
Company
Name
|
Ticker
Symbol
|
Reduction
in shares outstanding (buybacks)
|
|
DUPONT*
|
DD
|
-14.9
|
|
PROCTER
+ GAMBLE*
|
PG
|
-6.3
|
|
HEWLETT-PACKARD*
|
HPQ
|
-5.1
|
|
INTL
BUS MACH*
|
IBM
|
-5.1
|
|
INTEL
|
INTC
|
-4.6
|
|
BOEING*
|
BA
|
-3.8
|
|
EXXON
MOBIL*
|
XOM
|
-3.5
|
|
HOME
DEPOT
|
HD
|
-2.5
|
|
CITIGROUP
|
C
|
-2.5
|
|
3M
COMPANY
|
MMM
|
-2.4
|
|
PFIZER*
|
PFE
|
-2.1
|
|
MICROSOFT
|
MSFT
|
-2.1
|
|
HONEYWELL
INTL
|
HON
|
-2
|
|
WAL-MART
STORES
|
WMT
|
-1.7
|
|
COCA-COLA
|
KO
|
-1.7
|
|
DISNEY
WALT
|
DIS
|
-1.6
|
|
J
P MORGAN CHASE
|
JPM
|
-1.4
|
|
MERCK
|
MRK
|
-1.4
|
|
AMER
EXPRESS
|
AXP
|
-1.1
|
|
AT+T
INC
|
T
|
-1
|
|
CATERPILLAR*
|
CAT
|
-0.3
|
|
AMER
INTL GROUP*
|
AIG
|
-0.3
|
|
GEN
ELECTRIC
|
GE
|
-0.1
|
|
VERIZON
COMMUNIC
|
VZ
|
-0.1
|
|
ALCOA*
|
AA
|
0
|
|
MCDONALDS
|
MCD
|
0.1
|
|
GEN
MOTORS*
|
GM
|
0.1
|
|
JOHNSON
JOHNSON
|
JNJ
|
0.2
|
|
UNITED
TECH*
|
UTX
|
0.3
|
|
ALTRIA
GROUP*
|
MO
|
1.5
|
*Ed's Note:
According to a report by Standard and Poor's, these companies
each owe more than a billion to their pension
plans. With Exxon Mobil short -$11.502 billion and
General Motors shy -$7.531 billion.
This extraordinary
repurchasing by our country's biggest companies comes during an
equally extraordinary, record-setting buyback year. This year
so far, nearly 60 companies in the S&P 500 have cut their
number of shares outstanding by at least 4% through buybacks,
according to S&P. And in the first nine months of 2005, S&P
500 companies spent $231 billion on buybacks -- and the year isn't
over yet. An equity market analyst at S&P estimated buybacks
will surpass $300 billion for 2005, well above the $197 billion
for 2004 and the $131 billion for 2003.
The fact that
companies awash in cash due to record corporate profits are opening
their coffers and returning it to shareholders through repurchasing
shares is the best gift we could imagine.
David R.
Fried is the editor and publisher of The Buyback Letter (www.buybackletter.com),
the only investment newsletter devoted to finding opportunities
among companies that repurchase their own stock. His asset management
firm -- Fried Asset Management, Inc. -- offers separate investor
advisory and money management services which use the "Buyback
Strategy" principles. All of his portfolios are beating the
S&P 500 since inception.
NataliePace.com
note: The opinions expressed in this article are solely the opinions
of the writer and do not represent the positions of NataliePace.com.
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media
and information center. This article is intended to educate and
inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive
edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies
and/or investment vehicles mentioned in this article are not intended
to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.

|
|
Don't
Blind Date. Get Smart and Have More Fun.
by Natalie
Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com
 |
| Natalie
Pace, CEO & founder NataliePace.comª |
When I first
considered buying stocks, it was a lot like going out on a blind
date. I had plenty of raw data, lots of information, but no idea
what it all added up to. One peek at the person gives you a pretty
good idea whether or not you want to go forward, but how do can
you peek into corporations? And, as anyone who has ever been on
a blind date knows, information can be very misleading. "He's
got a great personality," usually means he's uglier than
the Hunchback of Notre Dame. I had an abiding distrust of the
stock market (and blind dates). Wasn't it just legalized gambling?
Weren't corporations inherently corrupt? If the odds were against
a novice investor like me making a profit, and I assumed they
were, why waste even one spot of time on it?
Instead of
burying my head in the sand, surrounding myself with cats and
eating ice cream out of the container, I turned to something that
humans have used to their advantage over the long road from cave
dwellers to condo dwellers: I turned to my community of friends.
Turns out that a few of my friends had started companies that
were very successful. I have a good relationship... with numbers,
and I know a few executives, but you'll rarely find me shopping
for anything anywhere. My friend, Brigitte, on the other hand,
loves shopping and hates math. Len understands market terminology.
Jonathan serves on a lot of board of directors. Patti has a slew
of market experience and information on the most obscure companies
you've ever heard of. Diane knows real estate. Vicki, cars. Carol,
entertainment.
You're getting
the picture. If we could find a way to distill all of our collective
experience and data into usable information, then we'd have a
far more complete picture of the companies we were interested
in investing in. In fact, if one considers all of the publicly
available information, alongside macro trends, consumer observations
and their own market experience, wouldn't that put an individual
investor at a significant advantage in making informed investment
decisions? The unique value proposition for NataliePace.com is that our
subscribers will have access to all sorts of proprietary information
that is completely legal because it comes from the observations
of our subscribers. So, I encourage you to network and share information
on our bulletin boards.
Forget about
illegal insider trading. It's stupid, unethical, and frankly not
that effective, as you can see from the queue of execs waiting
for their day in court. With the wealth of company stock data
available on-line and through the NataliePace.com ezine, the individual
investor is actually poised, for perhaps the first time in the
history of the stock market, to have a competitive advantage.
Employees can anonymously share their employment experiences.
Consumers, their buying and customer service experiences. It didn't
take a genius to see that KMart was more frequently out of stock,
with fewer customers and less employee satisfaction than its competitors
BEFORE it declared bankruptcy. You can see problems in the numbers
AFTER the consumer spending drops off, or you can preview the
problems firsthand in the shopping experience. It is perfectly
legal to share observations like this, and it is perfectly proper
to consider them before placing your buy or sell order.
Obviously,
I didn't invent the Internet (Al Gore did). I didn't invent investment
clubs or investigative reporting. However, NataliePace.com's unique idea
is that that these are natural partners in informed investing.
Forget about
blind dates, how many individual investors blindly trusted their
brokers prior to the great crash of 2000! NataliePace.com isn't suggesting
you throw out your broker, but there's a big difference in taking
an active role in your future and blindly allowing someone half
your age (in a lot of cases) to control your destiny. Peter Lynch,
arguably the most successful stock picker of all time, always
maintained that an individual investor could outperform the market,
if she invested in things she really understood.
NataliePace.com's
test market of 2002 was to be one bear of a test. At the October
2002 low, Nasdaq was down 75% from its March 2000 high. The DOW
dipped over 15% that year. Meanwhile, using the investigative
reporting strategies that I rely on for my stock picking, my personal
portfolio gains were over 200% in 2001. Since NataliePace.com began publishing,
in November of 2002, we have annualized gains of over 59% (according
to TipsTraders.com), which puts NataliePace.com at the top of the all
of the stock newsletters that are followed by Tipstraders (over
690 A-list pundits).
So, is an
investment in the NataliePace.com ezine and educating yourself a better
approach to investing than the Blind Date strategy? If my dating
turns out as well as my investing, I'll be taking a few weeks
off to sail into the sunset next year.
Other
Articles of Interest:
10
Common Investment Mistakes Avoid
them and Profit! by Natalie Wynne Pace, CEO and Founder of NataliePace.com.
The
Joy of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler.

|
|
Hot
News on Cool Stocks: Go For the Glory in January.
by Natalie
Pace, Top-ranked stock picker, per TipsTraders.com.
 |
| Natalie Pace, top-ranked stock picker Per
TipsTraders.com |
(Note: These
are not buy/sell recommendations. Always consult a certified financial
professional before buying or selling stock.)
Stats,
Facts, Quotes and Educational Information:
- Higher
Interest Rates. Don't expect an end to the interest rate
increases anytime soon. According to the Federal
Open Market Committee press release, "The Committee
judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to
be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable
economic growth and price stability roughly in balance."
The style of the FOMC press release and the wording is slightly
changed from those of past. Is this the new, more direct approach
of Ben Bernanke, who is scheduled to become Fed Reserve Chairman
in February, when Alan Greenspan retires? What does this mean
to the average individual? Real estate (in general) releases
some hot air from the bubble. (Some sections of the country,
like the Atlantic North East, which haven't seen a major run-up
in prices may still do well, at least according to Sam Zell,
a respected real estate mogul.) Corporations with slim margins
and bad credit have a harder time accessing low-interest capital,
which will affect their bottom line, earnings and stock performance.
- Essentially,
it becomes more important than ever to do your research on the
companies and real estate that you are investing in. Rebalance
and diversify your positions according to your age and return
expectations, take a strong position in the money markets (liquidity)
and employ sophisticated strategies for winning gains in a challenging
environment. You'll likely need more money for basics, and you'll
want the ability to take advantage of buying opportunities that
may arise. The free joy rides of the late Ô90s (in stock) and
of the new millennium run-up in real estate will be hard-won
in 2006 and 2007.
- We added
RELM Wireless Corporation (AMEX: RWC) to our Hot News
Watch List on 12.19.2005. With $9.9 M orders in 10.05 (delivery
scheduled for 4th Q '05), sales are on tap to double
in 4th Q over last year. RELM began trading on the
American Stock Exchange on 10.14.05 and has already begun attracting
institutional interest. Great P/E at 11.60. This is a Homeland
Security/Military play as RELM supplies two-way land mobile
radios (LMRs) to the government and public safety market.
- Go
for the Glory in January.
50% or more of the stock market gains are typically made in
the 4th quarter of the year. If you're looking to
buy, make sure you're not buying at a 52-week high, unless it's
a company that you are sure still has a lot of upside growth.
If you're looking to sell, odds are, at least historically,
that January is a good time to take your short-term gains. The
Dow Jones Industrial average peaked at the beginning of January
in 2005, and is still down -0.05 off that high, according to
Dow Jones.
Click
on Trick
or Treat for a breakdown of historical market returns
by month.
- Las
Vegas Sands and Sheldon G. Adelson, how do we love thee?
Let me count the ways. The Venetian, The Sands Macao, The Venetian
Macao and now Singapore? Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Singapore's
leading developer and hotel group, City Developments Limited,
announced on 12.15.2005 that the two companies will jointly
pursue the development of an integrated resort at the Marina
Bayfront in Singapore. Macao is the Vegas of China (and the
Chinese do have a reputation for loving to gamble). Singapore
is a new player in resort/casinos in the region, and the Las
Vegas Sands Corp. is one of the few mega resort operators still
standing in the bidding process. This strategic alliance is
a great move to increase the odds of winning the bid. Las Vegas
Sands Corp. is a strong first mover in the Asian market, which
is poised to outpace Vegas, just as the Chinese economy has
outrun the rest of the world.
- 18 BIG
WINNERS, which keeps us at the top in Annualized Returns
(according to TipsTraders.com). This hot news article still
has the proud honor of featuring eighteen companies that have
posted positive gains, versus three that have gone south. Of
the three that have gone south, we were most concerned with
Krispy Kreme, but there are signs that Stephen Cooper, turnaround
King/CEO, is moving that company forward. Turnarounds are
difficult to stomach, even the turnaround of the most popular
sweet on the planet. Lawsuits are many. OSIP and MSO - in our
view, these are great companies with exceptional products and/or
leadership. Sometimes it takes awhile for the rest of the investment
world to realize that. Still love Jet Blue as a consumer, but
the sector is in trouble until they figure out how to make solar-powered
planes.
- Correction:
Previously, we reported that the News Corp. market capitalization
was at $15 billion. The correct market capitalization is $51
billion. See below for more details. FYI: News Corp. now owns
Myspace.com, one of the most trafficked sites on the Internet.
Bottom
Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon
your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio
diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher
risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns.
As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm
on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate
or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission
of providing the news and information you need to make better
choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always
consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling
any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot
Stocks
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. It may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they (outside of KKD, which might be a real
dud) are poised to continue performing well. There are never any
guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
12.28.05
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Automatic
Data Processing
|
NO
|
ADP
|
$46.84
|
$46.86
|
47.43
40.37
|
Flat
|
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ"
|
|
Bioteq
Environmental Technologies
VERY
HIGH RISK
Penny
Stock in a great sector.
|
NO
|
TSX:
BQE
(Note
this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)
|
$.80
|
$1.03
|
$1.05
$.66
|
+29%
|
|
Water
treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water
in mining ind. BioteQ's customers include Breakwater Resources,
Falconbridge, and Phelps Dodge. This company is only trading
on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Canaccord Capital Corporation
is offering appx. 5 million shares at $.90/unit. Units include
warrants to buy at $1.25 for up to two years. Go to Bioteq.CA
for more info. If your stomach is lined with steel, this
could be a fun, rewarding, high-risk bet.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$39.52
|
$42.49
$23.02
|
+17%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and, within those countries,
in the right, growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls.
|
|
Gevity
Human Resources
|
No
|
GVHR
|
$26.48
|
$26.61
|
$29.00
$15.45
|
flat
|
|
See
the article in the vol. 2 iss. 11 ezine, entitled, "Harvesting
ProfitsÉ" Roy C. King became President and COO on 12.20.05,
responsible for sales, marketing and biz development.
|
|
Intermix
(MySpace.com)
volume
2, issue 4
|
No
|
MIX
|
$7.49
|
$12.00
|
11.74
.51
|
+60%
|
|
News
Corp. bought Intermix for $12/common share on 9.30.05. Investors
received cash for their shares.
|
|
ImClone
(makers
of Erbitux)
See
volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article
Trading
near 52 week low.
|
No
|
IMCL
|
$34.48
|
$34.47
|
87.24
29.51
|
flat
|
|
CEO
resigned 11.11.05, but analysts consider it a positive move.
Filed for FDA approval to use Erbitux on head and neck cancer
on 8.30.05, and received "priority" review status
on 10.31 from FDA. Review expected 2.28.05. Results from
study are impressive. New panitumumab drug from Amgen is
predicted to gain market share of colorectal cancer in about
three to four years, though it is not expected to gain approval
and product launch before 3Q 2006. Swissmedic, the Swiss
agency for therapeutic products, approved Erbitux for head
and neck cancer on 12.22.05. Merrill Lynch analyst Eric
Ende thinks IMCL is a TOP SELL for 2006. We disagree.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
VERY HIGH
In
turnaround mode. Trading at 5 year lows.
Taken
off S&P Midcap 400 effective 10.27.05.
|
NO
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$5.52
|
32.70
4.40
|
-46%
|
|
KKD
got an extension on its 12.15 deadline to file financials
with the SEC. "While a number of challenges remain,
I am pleased to report that we continue to make progress
with the Company's turnaround," said Steve Cooper, CEO.
Don't forget that Michael Sutton, the former chief accountant
for the SEC, is on KKD's board. KKD has begun completing
its restructuring initiatives, with optimistic words of
recovery from President and COO, Steve Panagos. "We believe
that the New England region has significant growth potential
and we look forward to continuing to serve this important
market." Turnarounds like this are very hard on the stomach.
This high risk investment is only for the seasoned investor
with nerves of steel.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
The
Venetian, Sands Macao
(1st
mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)`
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$39.69
|
53.98
33.10
|
+6%
|
|
The
Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q '07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian
Macao (1Q '07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Go
to LasVegasSands.com, click on Investor Information, and
then Investor Day, to see a Web Cast on fast growing and
vast the Macao market is. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is also
making deals with other Macao hotels to manage their casinos
and show rooms, including Intercontinental Hotel, Holiday
Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La Hotel
Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai Strip
in Macao. Huge Consensus Insider selling, including CEO,
on 9.13.05 at $35.64, totaling $366 million, for trust diversification
purposes. Amounts to less than 7% of CEO trust holdings
of LVS. 3Q earnings up to $91 million, compared with a year-earlier
loss of $85.9 million. Bidding on new Singapore casino/resort
with Singapore's leading developer and hotel group, City
Developments Limited.
|
|
Martha
Stewart Omniliving*
RISK:
MEDIUM
Management
says ad revenue is back, and merchandising is heating up.
|
NO
|
MSO
|
$25.91
|
$17.79
|
$37.45
$8.25
|
-31%
|
|
The
public fired Martha's Apprentice show, and Martha's
daytime show isn't becoming the next Oprah. Still MSO is
projecting to break-even on operating revenue in 4Q. Deal
with KB Home to build/market MSO homes. Martha's 24/7 Channel
on Sirius SR launched on 11.21. Ad revenue in mags is picking
up big time. Revenue should improve. Although, flops usually
spook investors, for a time, Martha has enough "cooking"
to make everyone forget the phrase, "You're just not
working out." CFO announced on 12.16.05 that he is
leaving the corp.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Dividends
|
No
|
NWS.A
|
$15.88
|
$15.51
|
18.88
13.94
|
Flat
|
|
Featured
article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol.
2, iss. 10. Bought Myspace, Scout Media and IGN Entertainment,
all IT companies, for far less than competitors are paying
for their holdings. With sales of $24.4 billion and a MC
of $51.52 billion (compared to Google's $5.25 B in sales
and $127 billion MC), we think investors will start taking
notice of this undervalued juggernaut, especially once MySpace
revenues start hitting the books. Myspace has surpassed
Google in page views and user time online, which should
start translating into a major jump in ad revenue this year,
especially since MySpace's core demographic is the coveted
16-34 year olds.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$6.98
|
$7.55
$3.90
|
+287%
|
|
CONSENSUS
INSIDER BUYING (usually a very good sign). 3Q results beat
Wall Street revenue expectations. Signed 56 new license
deals during the quarter and four new deals worth more than
$1 million, lifting sales to $15.3 million from $10.2 million
last year. 3Q loss was $2.8 million, or 3 cents per share,
from $6.3 million, or 8 cents per share, a year ago.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
|
YES
|
OSIP
|
$63.59
|
$26.70
|
98.70
22.57
|
-58%
|
|
3Q
net loss of $20.0 million and $77.1 million for the three
months and nine months ended September 30, 2005, respectively,
compared with a net loss of $123.2 million and $220.2 million
a year ago. FDA approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic
patients on 9.13.05, Genetic based "cancer pill."
1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved for lung
cancer last November. Canadian regulators approved Tarceva
on 7.13.05. European approval granted on 9.21. Switzerland
approved Tarceva in March 2005. Partner of Genentech (DNA)
and Roche.
|
|
RELM
wireless
10.70
P/E
Micro
Cap
96.38
Million
(high
risk)
|
NO
|
RWC
|
$7.35
|
$7.50
|
8.48
1.90
|
+2%
|
|
$9.9
billion in new orders in 10.05 for 4th Q 2005
delivery. Could make sales double over same time last year.
Two-way land mobile radios (LMRs), for govt and public safety.
|
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
NO
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$182.50
|
182.50
84.53
|
+103%
|
|
Metals
demand is huge; supply is limited; stock price is high.
RTP bought back 8.7% of stock as of 5.05, to the tune of
US$780 million, and plans to buyback up to $1.5 billion
in 2005 and 2006. Analysts say pressure on price should
continue on high demand in China and Asia. Increased its
dividend by 20 per cent. Finds, processes and mines minerals:
copper, iron, coke (from coal), aluminum, titanium dioxide
and diamonds. Rio Tinto has been added to Jim Jubak's 50
Best Stocks in the World List (eff. 9.05). Great press usually
means more buyers. Hang on, and enjoy the dividends, but
don't get sucked into buying high. Even Citigroup
has taken RTP down to Hold from Buy. Jim Jubak reported
on 12.20.05 that RTP has put plant production plans on hold
due to high construction costs in Australia (where many
of its plants and mines are located). As long as Jubak keeps
RTP rich in headlines, expect investors to keep buying high.
|
|
Sirius
|
YES
|
SIRI
|
$6.02
|
$6.80
|
8.48
3.72
|
+13%
|
|
Sirius
announced on 12.27.05 that it topped 3 million subscribers
and is on track to finish the year strong. XM Satellite
Radio has more than 5 million subscribers. Howard Stern
(starting 1.06), Martha Stewart and Rolling Stones 24/7,
have us betting on SIRI over competition XMSR. Was last
year's Santa Rally present, with gains of over 100% in the
last quarter of 2004. Could be as popular of a gift this
year as well. SIRI beat expectations, but posted a net loss
of $134 million in the third quarter on 10.27.05 due to
higher programming and marketing costs. Revenue rose, as
subscribers were more than 5 million, more than double from
a year ago. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing
market share and having biz cash flow issues. Could impact
XM. SIRI CEO KARMAZIN MEL purchased $8 million last Nov.
$334 million insider selling. Mercedes just agreed to make
SIRI standard on SL and CL models for 2007. Caris &
Co. analyst Susan Kalla says Sirius "may be able to bring
down subscriber acquisition costs to $100 per sub, leading
to a breakeven in 2006." Kalla said Sirius could reach about
16 million subscribers by 2010, and predicts a 2007 cash
break even point for XMSR, with 18 million subscribers by
2010.
|
|
Sohu
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$18.70
|
23.74
14.25
|
+6.7%
|
|
September's
feature company, in the "You Can Do Better Than Baidu"
article. Financial Times ranked Sohu in Top 10 Chinese
Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05. (6 days after our article.)
SOHU selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content
Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Insider
buying, including CFO. According to comScore media Metrix,
SOHU averages more minutes per visitor (at 26.3) than Baidu
(at 19.2) or Alibaba (at 2.9). Sohu is just behind Alibaba
in terms of page views at 13 million and 15 million respectively,
compared to 6 million for Baidu. Alibaba stomped both sites
in terms of unique visitors in November 2005, with 2.332
billion, compared to 198 million (Sohu) and 128 million
(Baidu).
|
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
Vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$25.07
|
$25.07
$12.00
|
+21%
|
|
See
vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add
growth. Eastern EU rocks. Western EU stalls.
|
|
Verisign,
Vol.
2, iss. 9
Ring
tones, domain names, plus, including JamsterÉ
|
No
|
VRSN
|
$21.91
|
$21.82
|
$36.09
$17.02
|
flat
|
|
Q3
2005 earnings reported on Wednesday, October 19th,
reflect 28% increase in revenue over last year, to $415
million. Net income was up to $45 million, over $40 million
last year, same quarter. Repurchased 9 million shares for
value of $215 million in the 3rd Q. Revenue shortfall
in the mobile content area is expected to improve, according
to CEO. Michelle Guthrie, CEO of STAR Group, Ltd. (a division
of News Corp.) was named to the Board on 12.19.05. According
to Stratton Sclavos, CEO and Chairman, ""Michelle's
track record in building successful content and distribution
relationships in both Europe and Asia will be an invaluable
asset in VeriSign's long range strategy to build and operate
the world's premier digital content utility." VRSN is looking
to expand into mobile and broadband with Michelle's guidance.
|
|
Yahoo
Vol.
2, iss. 10
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$33.84
|
$40.22
|
42.13
30.30
|
+19%
|
|
Featured
article, "News Corp. Enters New Media," from vol.
2, iss. 10. Yahoo is the #1 web site, with more traffic,
page views and time online than MSN or Google. 3Q Revenues
were $1.330 billion for the third quarter of 2005, a 47
percent increase compared to $907 million for the same period
of 2004. Net income for 3Q 2005 was $254 million or $0.17
per diluted share, similar to last year's results for the
quarter. So why is Google's market capitalization over twice
the size of Yahoo's? Do investors really think Google is
twice as valuable and has twice as much future potential
as Yahoo?
|
Stocks
in Profit-Taking Range. Note: We may still like these companies
(as we do Genentech and Google) for the long term as companies
(which means if you have them in your 401K or long term portfolio,
you might want to keep them there), but are taking profits in
shorter windows, based on a market that is posting modest gains,
with volatile movements. We may look to add some of these great
companies to our hot news list again, if the price point should
become attractive. In a market of modest gains but high volatility,
profits are made in shorter windows.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
10.17.05
(Close-out))
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains/Loss
since Close-out
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
Price
12.28.05:
$19.21
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$10.25
|
$17.53
|
$25.00
$7.18
|
+71%
|
|
The
FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue"
on 10.26.05. Recall of products, taking a charge of $1.4
million in 3Q to reflect the recall. NY DA investigation
of a company supplier of LifeCell (not LifeCell). LifeCell's
product is in high demand and sales are growing. However,
a hit like this investigation could be devastating. 3Q 2005
earnings were strong, with revenue of $24.5 million compared
to $15.6 million for the third quarter of 2004. Company
has been quiet of late, not a great sign when there is this
kind of intensity going on.s
|
|
NetGear
RISK:
MEDIUM
Trading
in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.
Price
12.28.05:
$19.44
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$20.76
|
$22.67
$8.85
|
+67%
|
|
BusinessWeek
named NTGR as one of its100 Hot Growth Companies. Distribution
with Digital China, with 6,000 resellers and agents in Asia's
largest market should mean continued growth. However, Consensus
insider selling makes us nervous in a market with this much
volatility and with executives who are new to the game and
largely unproven. Profit taking in shorter windows has been
working this year. Third quarter 2005 net revenue increased
to $111.3 million, 10% year- over-year growth.
|
|
Sunoco
Price
12.28.05:
$79.42
|
No
|
SUN
|
$34.50
|
$73.67
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$81.49
$32.35
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+113%
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Recent
court decision assesses after-tax damages of about $40 million
through Dec. 31, 2004, which Sunoco will record as a charge
in the third quarter. Shut down its LaPorte and Bayport,
TX polypropylene facilities and evacuated all its non-essential
personnel in TX on 9.22, due to Hurricane Rita. Company
press release says extended delays are expected, but hasn't
provided more details yet (not a good sign). Oil should
remain strong, while supply is constrained and demand is
outrageous. However, near term hit to earnings has a chance
of being ugly. 3Q 2005 net income was $329 million ($2.39
per share diluted) versus $104 million ($.69 per share diluted)
for the 2004 3Q.
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Great
Staples for your retirement plan:
Genentech closed out at $80.92, with 328% gains. Great Blue
Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio.
Google closed out at $292.72, with 193% gains. Great Blue
Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price.
Watch
List:
Advanced Micro Devices, under $15.
Pixar, under $45.
Evergreen
Solar (ESLR) under $8.00, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), under
$36, Sun Power (SPWR) at $25 are on our watch list. Great
future. Looking for a better prices. Interest in solar power could
drive share price up, but don't lose site of the challenges of this
sector, as outlined very well by Paul Woods in his article, "Solar
Energy Heats Up."
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are
a media and information center. This article is intended to educate
and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security.

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Network,
Vote, Conferences & Galas:
Don't Miss
NataliePace.com's new web site features and calendar listings, including
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Wisdom bulletin boards and business conferences. Nominate Women
of Excellence, a Software Company of the Year and more!
NataliePace.com™
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New
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Surveys.
Go to www.NataliePace.com,
and click on the survey question to participate in all three surveys.
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Calendar:
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and executive for the Software Industry Awards. Participate
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Quote
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We scour the top stories and the top speeches and lectures of
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