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Vol.3 Issue 10 October 1st, 2006
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Month:
"The unprecedented economic development and prosperity the world has experienced since the industrial revolution has carried a stiff price in terms of pollution, environmental degradation and the decreasing supply of fossil fuels. This affects everybody. In light of these significant challenges, developing clean and affordable renewable energy resources has become a global imperative."

Dr. Zhengrong Shi,
Suntech Power Holding's Chairman and CEO.


Solar Powers Whole Foods, But Not the Whole World.

by Natalie Pace.

Why Investing in the Most Abundant Energy in the World - the Sun - is Trickier Than You Think.

Includes a Solar Report Card.

"The unprecedented economic development and prosperity the world has experienced since the industrial revolution has carried a stiff price in terms of pollution, environmental degradation and the decreasing supply of fossil fuels. This affects everybody. In light of these significant challenges, developing clean and affordable renewable energy resources has become a global imperative."
--
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech Power Holding's Chairman and CEO

The sun is the world's most abundant energy source, so why isn't it at least heating our water heaters worldwide? The truth is startling. Even including sunshine states like California, which experiences over 300 days of solar rays, the total amount of renewable energy consumed in the U.S. amounted to less than 6% in 2005. ("Renewable energy" includes wind, solar and other "green" energy.) To put the current state of solar energy into perspective (and to advise you of the risk of investing blindly in the sector), people have been touting solar energy since the 1960s (yes, it was peace, love AND solar energy). Almost fifty years after our hairy ancestors hosted "bed-in's" to promote renewable energy, I still have to be a sleuth to find a solar energy panel at Home Depot. Solar energy may be in our hearts and minds, but it is not taking up a lot of shelf space in our stores.

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2005

source: Department of Energy

Currently, there are just a few pioneering corporations in the U.S. who are strongly committed to using green energy. Whole Foods Market, the World Bank Group, the Advanced Micro Devices Austin, TX Facilities and the Tower Companies all run on 100% green power usage (source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). Click for a list of the Top 25 Partners in the Green Power Partnership. If you're interested in checking up on the most fuel-efficient cars (hint: the Prius is ranked second), click for a Green Vehicle Guide.

Last December (vol. 2, iss. 12), I featured another solar energy article and report card, and warned investors that, even though it was hard to make a case for solar energy investments this early in the game, SunPower was probably a better pick than Evergreen Solar. (Evergreen was getting a lot of media attention for installing panels on government buildings in Washington D.C. and was added to the Russell 2000(R) and Russell 3000(R) Indices in June of 2005.) That turned out to be a good call because since that vol. 2, iss. 12 publication, Evergreen Solar's share price has dropped -32.6%, while SunPower is up 6.7%.

"Sign petitions, lobby for tax incentives and march to get a few brochures put into the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world! In terms of the stock, however, it may be wiser to be a waiter than a buyer. We'll keep on eye on Sun Power, and look to add it to our Hot News column if/when the price takes a dip and become more attractive." Natalie Pace, from "Sun Power's Billion Dollar IPO" (vol. 2, iss. 12). Click to read the full article.

Buy or Continue to Wait?
Why were we so cautious in a sector with so much buzz? Because it is difficult to predict a clear winner when innovation is occurring rapidly in a sector. There tend to be a lot more companies that fail than succeed, and when you have massive fallout of venture capital, the sinking tide can ground most companies. Picture the Internet bust of 2000, or the personal computer bust of the early 80s, or the assembly line bust at the turn of the century. As renowned economist Joseph Schumpeter wrote in his book, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, a good time to invest in new technology tends to be after the initial crash (which is one reason why we are still bullish on IT tech companies).

Most of the solar energy companies listed on the Solar Stock Report Card are still cash negative. Additionally, the primary source material, silicon, is short in demand and getting more expensive, and growth potential is severely constrained by that shortage at least until the second half of 2007. (Click to review the Stock Report Card, which lines up the companies by price, sales, P/E and more.)

Green CEOs (as in less experienced) will shine and soar and crash and burn by expanding too fast, over-committing to research and development, missing projections due to silicon shortages, neglecting to secure capital when they are in good shape, and scrambling to obtain high-cost capital when the company is on the ropes. Almost everything spooky about NASDAQ 1999 is creepy about Solar Energy today, with the exception of one company with real earnings and the strongest position with regard to silicon supply. As might be expected, the only two solar energy companies listed on the Stock Report Card that boast positive earnings - SunTech and SunPower -- have government and business ties that not only help to stabilize the genius scientist founders, but also provide them with the necessary government subsidies. See below for more information on which of these two well-positioned solar companies shines brighter..

Suntech "energizing a green, global future"
You would have done just fine investing in Microsoft in the early 80s, just as an investment in Google in 2004 at the IPO was a great idea, even though Internet revenue was still a young industry. Suntech, a Chinese-based company, may serve that role for the solar energy sector. Suntech has the lowest price to earnings ratio, is experiencing 200%+ growth, racks up more sales than the combined strength of its competitors, boasts one of the lowest debt/equity ratios and has strong government and business support globally - from China, to Australia, to Japan and the U.S.

Suntech's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Zhengrong Shi, was asked to join the International Advisory Committee of the New York Stock Exchange on August 10, 2006. In March of 2004, Premier Jiabao Wen, the 3rd most powerful man in the Chinese government, visited Suntech, addressed Suntech staff and praised the company, ensuring government support at the policy level for what Wen called the "future of China's renewable energy industry." Additionally, Suntech's Board of Directors seats such heavyweight business leaders as Mr. Chengyu Fu, Chairman and CEO of CNOOC Limited, and president of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, a PRC state-owned enterprise.

How does all that muscle and might win in the business world? It corners the market for silicon, the key element of the photovoltaic universe. According to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, ''During this period of tight silicon supply, our willingness to pay higher prices for silicon on the spot market means we have been able to increase our market share and satisfy more customers, while simultaneously increasing our EPS.''

Polysilicon manufacturer MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. backed out of a deal to supply silicon to Evergreen Solar Inc. in March, causing a drop in Evergreen's share price and a substantial hit to Evergreen's ability to produce panels on schedule. (Evergreen has since inked silicon from another deal, but the flow from that deal won't be tapped in full until 2007.) On the other hand, Suntech's required silicon supply for planned production in 2007 has been fully secured through long-term supply contracts with MEMC, OEM exchange programs and strategic alliances with key suppliers. SunPower has moved to secure silicon ingots through a joint venture with Korean entrepreneur Woongjin Coway, but the manufacturing facilities aren't expected to be operational until the second half of 2007, according to a company press release issued on September 29, 2006. The air is definitely perfumed with the success of Suntech in this critical area of silicon supply, at least for the coming three quarters.

So what are the risks of investing in Suntech right now? Solar technology companies cannot yet afford to sustain themselves on their own. According to Suntech's SEC IPO registration statement last December, if government subsidies dry up, the business could shrivel to nothing. "Reduction or elimination of these government subsidies and economic incentives because of policy changes, fiscal tightening or other reasons may result in the diminished competitiveness of solar energy, and materially and adversely affect the growth of these markets and our revenues." You can't get a better insurance policy than support from the Premier of China, however.

The Culture at Suntech
Like Google, Suntech is striving to be pro-employee, embracing "sincerity, honesty and equality" as their company values. The company website reads, "At Suntech, we believe that good companies are built with good people. We strive to foster a spirit of innovation, cooperation, teamwork, and speed through incorporating our employees into our family and treating them with concern and compassion." These claims have not been verified firsthand by my staff, but the ethos, at minimum, indicates a corporate commitment to engaging their employees. Happy people build better products cheaper and faster.

SunPower
So what about SunPower? Last year, SunPower was the star of the Department of Energy's Solar Decathlon, supplying the solar panels of choice for the 1st place winning team from the University of Colorado and the Virginia Tech team, which won first place in the Architecture and Dwelling Contest. Twenty teams have been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for the 2007 Solar Decathlon to compete in a solar competition to design, build, and operate the most attractive and energy-efficient solar-powered home. While SunPower was the hands-down winner in 2005, don't be surprised if SunTech gives the company a run for the glory in 2007.

Photo Credit: Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon
The Virginia Tech team, which won first place in the Architecture and Dwelling Contest of the DOE's Solar Decathlon, placed a high priority on architectural design and attractive ways to integrate solar power into a home. "We were first drawn to SunPower solar panels due to their unique, all-black design," explained Bob Schubert, faculty advisor to the Virginia Tech team. "The opportunity to take advantage of SunPower's solar panels' great aesthetics and high power output [gave] us an edge in the Solar Decathlon, which considers energy production, consumption and overall building design."

The Virginia Tech team, which won first place in the Architecture and Dwelling Contest of the DOE's Solar Decathlon, placed a high priority on architectural design and attractive ways to integrate solar power into a home. "We were first drawn to SunPower solar panels due to their unique, all-black design," explained Bob Schubert, faculty advisor to the Virginia Tech team. "The opportunity to take advantage of SunPower's solar panels' great aesthetics and high power output [gave] us an edge in the Solar Decathlon, which considers energy production, consumption and overall building design."

Photo Credit: Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon
The University of Colorado's energy-efficient, solar-powered house won first place in the Solar Decathlon on Friday, Oct. 14, 2005. "We evaluated more than 100 solar panels to optimize our solar power generation and defend our Solar Decathlon championship title," said Jeff Lyng, student project manager for the University of Colorado. "We were pleased to find that the best panels available were also the most beautifully designed to blend into our building." This award-winning house also utilized the SunPower solar panels.

The University of Colorado's energy-efficient, solar-powered house won first place in the Solar Decathlon on Friday, Oct. 14, 2005. "We evaluated more than 100 solar panels to optimize our solar power generation and defend our Solar Decathlon championship title," said Jeff Lyng, student project manager for the University of Colorado. "We were pleased to find that the best panels available were also the most beautifully designed to blend into our building." This award-winning house also utilized the SunPower solar panels.

Like Suntech, SunPower has board members with strong credentials. Pat Wood, III is the immediate past chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the independent regulator of the nation's interstate pipeline and wholesale electric power industries. Betsy Atkins was a presidential appointee to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation and is a current member of the Nasdaq nominating committee and Council on Foreign Relations. The CFO is from the Phillipines (where Sun Power's main manufacturing facility is located). T.J. Rodgers, the Chairman of SunPower's Board of Directors, is founder, president, CEO, and a director of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation.

It is safe to assume that these heavyweights can do a world of "entitlements" good for SunPower here in the U.S. However, China's commitment to solar energy does appear to exceed that of the U.S. in the near-term (given the current balance of power). I haven't seen or heard of anyone from the Bush Administration visiting the SunPower corporate offices promising government support.

Suntech (NYSE: STP) has been added to the Hot News on Cool Stocks list this month.

Full Disclosure: Natalie Pace does not own positions in any company mentioned in this article.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.


From Football Coach to CEO: Exclusive Q&A with Joe Moglia, CEO, TD AMERITRADE.

by Natalie Pace.

...on How Online Discount Brokerages Serve, Educate and Empower the Independent Investor.

In just five years under CEO Joseph Moglia's game plan, TD AMERITRADE swallowed up Datek, married T.D. Waterhouse, and shot past its other online rivals, with some $265.6 billion in client assets. Joe joined me in the Forbes.com Video Network studios in June to talk about his company and the industry. Click to view the Video Network interview.

Hi Joe, nice to see you again.

Hi Natalie, good to see you, too.

Impressive growth since you took the helm in March of 2001 and not an easy environment to do it in. Since joining TD Ameritrade as CEO, you took it from $700 million to-- the highest was $12 billion market cap. How did you do that?

We recognize that we're in business to be able to take care of our clients. As a publicly traded company, we need to provide shareholders with reasonable return. We are only going to deliver to our shareholders and our business objectives through our employees or our associates. Everything we do is centered around clients, shareholders and our associates.

It's been a tough environment. Is trading volume anywhere near what it was in heydays of 2000?

It's certainly not at all on a per capita basis. But because there's been significant consolidation, as you pointed out, within the industry in general, firms are having good numbers relative to where they may have been previously. I think when you take a look at what goes in with the individual investor, they're usually a lagging indicator as far as on what takes place in the market place. As the markets become euphoric, they do more trades, and they open up more accounts. As the opposite starts to happen, and lately the market's been under some pressure, if that continues for a while, you'll see them opening fewer accounts and moving more to the sidelines.

And you give more away to attract them! I mean you're giving away $500, free trades. I'm waiting for a trip to Tahiti!

We only give away trips to Tahiti to our top 1 million clients.

I'm waiting for that one! But with these margins, that's got to really cut into your profits. Doesn't that weigh heavy on operating margins?

We went 8 quarters in a row with 50%+ pre-tax margins. Our company's advantage is our operating leverage and our ability to scale. The power of that leverage is pretty significant. When we make a decision to entice a client to come in to our place, that's just to get them in the door. Whether or not they stay is going to be a function of what experience they actually have when they get here. As I mentioned earlier, the #1 priority to us, the reason why we're in business, is to take care of our clients.

Is that why TD Waterhouse was so attractive to you, to add Brick and Mortar?

There are a couple of reasons. That would be one of the reasons. First of all, they also had an active trader base. So you could take that entire active trader base, eliminate most of those costs, put them on our backbone and that drops to our pre-tax line. That was the first reason. But the second reason is we are getting more involved with the long-term investor space and independent advisor space. They were already involved with that.

Are you taking on Merrill? Are you going to start competing with the more traditional brokerage house?

When you think of the full commission of firms in this country, the typical financial consultant probably covers 400-500 accounts. They get paid on the ones that have the greatest assets. They realistically can't get to the majority of their client base, which is the mass affluent in this country. Now there are 37 million households that have between $100,000 and a million dollars in investable assets. That's an aggregate market of $15-16 trillion dollars. We think by using our sales force, and our branches, as well as our advantages with regard to technology, we can do a great job of servicing and taking care of the mass affluent client in the United States. In doing so, we'll be competing in that space with more of the full commission firms. But I would ask you to keep in mind that the typical full commission firm is not necessarily focused on that client. Their retail business in the U.S. is more of a high net-worth business.

Well you're not going to able to reach all those people one by one. So how does the online broker give the average American what they need to manage their own investments?

Today we can provide the client with a full spectrum of products and services. So if you, as an individual, want a simple, entirely electronic, online experience, we can give you that. If you're interested in a relationship with a branch, we can give you that. If you want to give your money to someone else to manage, we can do that for you. If you're an active trader, we can take care of you; if you're a long-term investor we can take care of you.

And we should remind everyone that you did write one of the best investing 101 books out there. It's called Coach Yourself to Success: Winning the Investment Game. You spell it all out in your book, so I'm sure that's very helpful to the individual investor.

One of the best things we can do is help educate the individual investor so they understand what some of the better investment vehicles, potentially, there are out there for them.

We've been talking with Joe Moglia, the Chief Executive Officer of Ameritrade. And he's certainly leading the offensive plays in M&As on Wall Street. I'm Natalie Pace for i-Sophia at the Forbes.com Video Network, bringing you recipes for the rich life™.


Rollover IRAs and Discount Brokerages Make Leaving Your Job Easy.

by Maya Patel.

It used to be easier to launch a satellite than it was to wrestle your retirement plan from an old employer, but easy-to-use online FREE rollover IRAs have changed all that. In fact, these days, you may even be able to rollover an existing employer's 401 (k) into your own IRA, if you wish to have greater control of the investments in your retirement planÉ

It is important to be long-term greedy with 401(k) money. Choices you make today impact your future financial security. Thus, when changing jobs, carefully consider what you do with your 401(k) money. The options are to leave the money in your former employer's plan, roll the money to your new employer's retirement plan, take a cash distribution or move the money to a Rollover IRA. Three factors to consider when weighing your options are: determine the present and future tax consequences of each option; reflect on the option that best complements your other retirement accounts; evaluate how much control you will have over your money with each option.

Leaving your 401(k)
By leaving your 401(k) money in your former employer's plan, it continues to grow tax deferred and maintains the ability to roll over later. You also avoid income taxes, penalties and a 20% government withholding of withdrawals that will likely occur if you choose to cash out.

There are drawbacks. Investment choices are limited to the employer's plan. Most employers pre-select the mutual funds available in their 401(k) plans. This relieves you from screening numerous funds, but also limits your investment selection. The employer's plan may further hinder flexibility by limiting withdrawals and exchanges between investments. Some employers require a rollover if your 401(k) is below a specified amount at the time of your departure.

Taking It To the New Job
If you roll over 401(k) money to the new employer's retirement savings plan, you face the same issues as leaving it with the former employer. However, there are two additional benefits. Tracking your retirement assets becomes easier and you may be able to borrow against your 401(k).

Cashing Out
The most tempting option is to take a cash distribution. However, the costs outweigh the benefits. You are able to use your money immediately, but incur losses due to the 20% mandatory withholding and 10% early withdrawal penalty. The intangible losses are the flexibility to move into a qualified plan or IRA after 60 days and the money is no longer in tax-deferred status.

Rollovers
The final option is a Rollover IRA. A rollover is a tax-free movement of cash or other assets from one retirement plan to another. A Rollover IRA provides flexibility by allowing you to invest money however you deem appropriate and by providing you with control to invest and access your money without going through a 401(k) provider. The IRA assets can be rolled back into a 401(k) or converted to a Roth IRA at a later date.

There are also drawbacks to this option. You cannot borrow against the assets and there is no special distribution alternative, such as net unrealized appreciation (NUA) treatment for distributions of company stock or forward averaging.

Many of the discount brokerage houses offer Rollover IRA plans. Schwab, E*Trade, and TD AMERITRADE offer these services on their website.

E*Trade offers a Rollover IRA account and instructions for opening one can be found on their website. Their online information is very extensive, and a financial service representative is available to assist you by phone at 1-800-ETRADE-1 (1-800-387-2331). 13 states also have E*Trade offices, where you can get help in person.

The form to open a rollover account is most easily found by typing "401K" in the search box. E*Trade provides a comprehensive section on frequently asked questions about Rollover IRA Accounts. The site provides an informative outline of their Rollover IRA plan by listing account minimum and maximum guidelines, stock trading commissions, account features and eligibility requirements. There is widespread information on the website that is accessed most easily by using key words in the search box.

Charles Schwab offers two options to help you through the rollover process - do-it-yourself online or in-person with assistance. Schwab will provide a retirement specialist to explain your rollover choices. You can begin the process of opening a Schwab Rollover IRA account over the phone, and set up an appointment with an investment consultant. Simply call: 866-855-9102, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The other option is to apply online.

Schwab also provides a range of investment choices. To help you explore equity opportunities, they provide Schwab Equity Ratings, multiple research perspectives, screening and monitoring tools, portfolio alerts via email and extended hours trading. Schwab Equity Ratings is their approach to evaluating stocks that may be right for you. To help you easily choose mutual funds, Schwab provides a list of pre-screened, no-load, no-transaction-fee funds. In addition, Schwab offers fixed income investment options.

Schwab also provides research and guidance on their website. They display links to articles germane to the various investment products and services. The website is user friendly and easy to navigate.

TD AMERITRADE offers a Rollover IRA that personalizes your portfolio based upon your individual needs, and enables you to apply easily online, in one page. Their Amerivest center (located under the Planning and Retirement link), helps you determine your risk tolerance, diversify your assets, choose Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), monitor your portfolio's performance and easily make changes when needed. Once your account is set, the site provides extensive information on portfolio investing, mutual funds and ETFs. It also makes it easy to trade by outlining your investment choices, providing analysis tools and excellent execution.

TD AMERITRADE has impressive products to offer now that they have merged with TD Waterhouse, which had a strong Rollover IRA department and brick-and-mortar offices. There are many TD AMERITRADE branches nationwide, where investors can speak with investment professionals one on one. The online articles provide you with a background for commonly asked retirement questions. The tools and calculators help you actively plan your retirement. One of the unique features of TD AMERITRADE's Rollover IRA is that there are online seminars to help you better understand your options. The site also offers a glossary of terms to make it a truly "do-it-yourself" 401(k).

When you are faced with an unexpected decision of what to do with the money in your former company's 401(k), rest assured there are options. The Rollover IRA account is one option, and it is offered by the discount brokerage houses. They provide you with flexibility and control over your money. They have made the rollover process easy by providing online applications and access to rollover specialists. The accounts are effective because they allow you to invest beyond the scope of the limits of your previous employer's 401(k) plan, while providing you with support and guidance. Now if securing a raise were so simple!

Maya Patel is an associate in the Debt Capital Markets Group at Harris Nesbitt Corp. She focuses on the origination, structuring and execution of high yield and investment grade public and private debt financings, as well as private equity transactions. Previously, she was an analyst in the Leverage Finance Group at Citigroup Global Markets. Email: maya.patel@harrisnesbitt.com

Important Disclaimer: I-Sophia.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to provide current news, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations and/or endorsements. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any stock.


Five Tips On Making The Most Of Your 401(K).

by Steve Patterson, Vice President, Schwab Corporate and Retirement Services.

The president's recent signing of the Pension Protection Act has consumers asking questions about how the new law will affect their 401(k) and other retirement plans.

Many of the provisions of the new law focus on how companies can act to help their employees save more for retirement, including the ability to automatically enroll employees into a 401(k) plan unless they actively choose not to participate. However, the law also features a number of important changes that affect how employees can take more control of their financial futures through their companies' plans.

Here are five tips for how participants in employer-sponsored plans can make the most of their 401(k) plans:

 *Get more advice. The Pension Protection Act expands the ways in which employees can receive specific advice on  their 401(k) plans, including how and where  to invest. Employees should check with their benefits departments to learn more about their advice options or to request the addition of advice services.

 *Save more and catch up. Thanks to the new law, several 401(k) features that were set to expire at the end of 2010 have become permanent, including the $15,000 annual contribution limit -- which will continue to increase each year -- and the additional $5,000 "catch-up" contribution for those over age 50. Employees who haven't increased their contribution amounts lately should act now.

*Ask about the Roth. In addition to the contribution limits, the Roth 401(k) also was set to expire at the end of 2010. In a Roth 401(k), payroll deductions are made on an after-tax basis, which means employees pay taxes on their contributions before they go into their plans. When  employees finally do withdraw money, all their contributions and investment earnings are tax-free, provided specific withdrawal qualifications are met -- so the Roth 401(k) is a good choice for those who think they will be in a higher tax bracket when they retire.  Now that the Roth 401(k) has been made permanent, employees should ask their HR departments to consider offering both a traditional and a Roth 401(k) option.

 *Don't stock up on stock. The new law gives employees more freedom to decide whether or not to hold publicly traded company stock in their 401(k) plans.  Many plans now must offer employees at least three investment options besides employer stock, and employees can, at any time, choose to sell company stock purchased with their own elective contributions.  After three years of employment, they can trade company stock received through employer contributions. Employees who hold company stock bought with contributions made prior to Jan. 1, 2007 will be  allowed to divest those shares over three years.  This new provision should cause consumers to examine their current portfolios to make sure they're not overly invested in company stock, or in a specific industry or asset class. Target or lifestyle funds can be an excellent option for  those who don't have time to actively manage a portfolio but want to make a single choice that invests in a diversified portfolio.

 *Rollover inherited assets. Under the new law, beginning in 2007,  individuals who inherit 401(k) assets from parents, domestic partners or others can roll over those assets to IRAs without paying taxes. Previously, this benefit was available only to individuals who inherited 401(k) assets from their spouses.  Employees should take advantage of this change, and take a moment to double-check their own beneficiaries.


Look Before You Leave:

Don't Be Misled By Early Retirement Investment Pitches That Promise Too Much.

Investor Alert by the NASD.

Credit: www.mazell.com Film and Video Production Advertising Photography 562-866-7662

September 14, 2006
Early retirement is an alluring prospect. When faced with a pitch that promises that you can cash in your company retirement savings in your 50s, reinvest the money, and live comfortably off the proceeds for the rest of your life, many simply can't say no. But usually they should. NASD is issuing this Investor Alert because we are aware of instances in which employees who had built up sizeable retirement savings have been misled, and financially harmed by flawed, even fraudulent, early-retirement investment schemes.

Misleading Statements and Excessive Withdrawals
A recent NASD enforcement action identified one such scheme. Employees of a major corporation attended free seminars where a broker pitched a strategy that recommended investors take one or more of the following actions:

  • Retire earlier than they might otherwise have done
  • Opt out of the company's retirement plan (opting out typically required the employee to cash out of his or her 401(k) plan or take a lump-sum payment for the cash value of his or her pension)
  • Open a traditional Individual Retirement Account at the broker's firm
  • Invest in variable annuities, Class B and C mutual fund shares, and exchange-traded fund shares, which were substantially more risky than the fixed benefit pension they had given up

During the seminars, these investments were represented as being able to generate aggressive annual returns as high as 18 percent. Little mention was made of the risks associated with such an aggressive growth scenario, such as the fact that the value of the investments would fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The pitch also failed to adequately explain that the overall return to customers on their investments would be reduced by various fees and expenses associated with the purchase and ongoing administration of the investments.

Furthermore, the strategy recommended annual withdrawal amounts generally starting at 7.5 percent to 9 percent of the customer's initial investment, with increases at five-year intervals. While materials given to individual customers in one-on-one meetings portrayed these rates as being sustainable for more than 30 years, they assumed returns of 11 to 14 percent. The reality is that these rates proved unrealistic and were not achievable. Customers who followed the broker's program could not maintain the recommended withdrawal amounts without depleting their retirement accounts to levels that threatened their retirement security. By the time many of the customers realized this, they had lost a significant portion of their retirement nest egg. Thirty-three customers who invested more than $22 million will be paid restitution of more than $13.8 million by the broker's firm.

Finally, the broker in this case misrepresented his own qualifications as a Certified Public Accountant (his CPA certification had long-since become inactive), overstating his ability to handle the complicated tax planning associated with taking early withdrawals from a qualified retirement plan.

What the IRS Says About Early Withdrawals from Your Retirement Plan
In addition to the income tax you pay on most retirement plan withdrawals, Section 72(t) of the Internal Revenue Code imposes an additional tax of 10 percent on distributions from qualified retirement plans, including traditional IRAs made before age 59 1/2. The IRS does, however, allow you to avoid this 10 percent penalty if the distributions from your retirement plan "are part of a series of substantially equal periodic payments." These payments must last for five years or until you reach age 59 1/2, whichever is longer, and IRS rules govern how you calculate the amount of the payments. For more information on Section 72(t) and methods for calculating payments, see the IRS's FAQs regarding Revenue Ruling 2002-62.

Be Skeptical of Early Retirement Investment Claims
Because the allure of a leisurely retirement can be quite tempting, and those who promote early retirement schemes can be extremely persuasive, it's critical that you think carefully before you act. Taking early retirement presents risks, and only makes sense if you have saved enough to begin with, make smart investment choices during your retirement years, and withdraw money at a rate that does not deplete your savings too early. While there is no perfect consensus on what this withdrawal rate should be, the uncertainty of return, market fluctuations and increased life expectancies among other factors argue for being conservative with your withdrawals, especially during the first years of retirement. While NASD can make no recommendation, many experts recommend withdrawal rates between 3-5% per yearÑconsiderably less than the 7-9% withdrawal rates NASD saw being recommended in the scheme above.

Be especially skeptical if you hear comments such as the following:

  • Everyone can retire early! The reality is that not everyone has the resources to do so. Early retirement is not feasible for many people and is particularly risky for workers who haven't saved enough for an extended retirement and who have limited opportunities for other employment.

  • You can make as much in retirement as you can by continuing to work! Promises like this usually hinge on unrealistically high returns on investments and unsustainably large yearly withdrawals.

  • You can expect returns of 12% or more! First of all, no one can predict what an investment will do from one year to the nextÑand even if an investment performed well in the past, this is no guarantee it will do so in the future. Second, any return over 10.4% exceeds the historical long-term returns for the stock market (assuming all dividends were reinvested rather than spent), and greatly exceeds long-term returns for less risky investments such as bonds, for which the average annual return over the long term is less than 6%. Finally, the stock market is inherently volatile - it goes up, and it goes down. Over the past 80 years, there have been many short term periods that produced returns well below the historical average of 10.4%.

  • You can withdraw 9% or more and never run out of money! Unless you have substantial retirement assets, withdrawing this amount can lead to rapid depletion of your principal, and even smaller withdrawal amounts may cause you to outlive your retirement assets.

Tips to Avoid Being Taken In
Don't let the promise of easy money lure you into an early retirement you weren't otherwise considering. Before you quit your day job (or night job) and invest your retirement savings, follow these tips:

  1. Be skeptical of "free lunch" training sessions and other seminars that promote early retirement strategies, even if those events take place at the workplace. Don't assume that your employer is behind the event.

  2. Be wary of early retirement pitches that invoke exceptions to IRS Section 72(t) as a "little-known loophole" that allows you to retire early. There's a lot more to a successful early retirement than avoiding a 10% tax penalty.

  3. Think hard before trading the relative certainty of a company pension?which may offer steady and predictable payments for as long as you live?for the uncertainty of investments such as variable annuities and mutual funds whose values fluctuate, creating an unpredictable income stream and putting your nest egg at risk.

  4. Many employers allow former employees to leave their 401(k) assets in the company's plan. If that's a choice you have, you may find that it's the safest and least costly option. For more information on how to make smart decisions concerning your retirement nest egg, please see Smart 401(k) Investing.

  5. Before quitting and cashing in a 401(k), do a little math. Remember that even if you avoid the 10 percent early withdrawal tax penalty, you won't be able to spend every penny. Instead, you will have to pay ordinary income taxes on your withdrawals. Be sure to ask a tax professional about any other potential tax consequences of your decision.

  6. You may also wish to consult an attorney about any other unintended consequences, especially if you are in debt or owe child support or alimony. Depending on the laws in your state, cashing out of your retirement plan may mean that your creditors can collect against that payment you receiveÑeven if you're rolling the assets to a traditional IRA.

  7. If the strategy involves mutual fund investing, keep in mind that Class A mutual fund shares may be the best choice if the investment amount is large enough to qualify for a discount on front-end sales loads that may be offered for larger mutual fund investments and usually starts at $50,000, but sometimes can be as low as $25,000. Use NASD's Mutual Fund Expense Analyzer to compare and calculate mutual fund expenses.

  8. If the strategy involves variable annuities, be aware that most variable annuities have sales charges, including asset-based sales charges or surrender charges. In addition, variable annuities may impose a variety of fees and expenses when you invest in them, including mortality and expense fees, administrative costs, and investment advisory fees. Some products offer, for an extra fee, enhanced benefits that go beyond standard contract features, such as living benefitsÑwhich are designed to protect a client's future income streamÑas well as death benefitsÑwhich are designed to protect a client's death benefit payable to a beneficiary. The bottom line: variable annuities can be complex and expensive relative to other investments.

  9. Check out whether the person offering you early retirement investments is registered with NASD by checking NASD BrokerCheck or calling our Hotline at (800) 289-9999. If he or she is registered, be sure to check out any red flags raised by employment or disciplinary history.

  10. Seek a second opinion before committing to an early retirement strategy. Consider taking the initiative to set up an appointment with a financial professional before taking the advice of someone who "found you." To get started, read the Securities and Exchange Commission's How to Pick a Financial Professional.

Keep in mind that your retired life may be as long as, or longer than, your working life. Take the time to research your retirement options carefullyÑbefore you leave the working world behind.

Additional Resources
NASD Investor Alert, Variable Annuities: Beyond the Hard Sell

NASD Investor Alert, Mutual Fund Breakpoints: A Break Worth Taking
NASD Investor Alert, Understanding Mutual Fund Classes
NASD Investor Alert, Think Twice Before Cashing Out Your 401(k)
Securities and Exchange Commission's Variable Annuities: What You Should Know
IRS's FAQs related to Section 72(t), FAQs regarding Revenue Ruling 2002-62

To receive the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information, sign up for Investor News.


TheÊJoy of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler.

What people like about me most are my desire to learn and my ability to keep growing, past my comfort zone. Hence, I decided it was time to get into the stock market.  I consider myself a highly intuitive person in my civilian life - but my BIG question was - does this transfer into the world of stocks and bonds?  I clicked my heels three times and said, "There is no place like IRA" and then I dug in my heels, palms sweating.  I researched via YAHOO finance. I asked questions of a retired stockbroker friend (and date) of mine. I registered with Schwab.com (a favorite of my dear old dad), and I visualized myself as wealthy from my investments.

As an entrepreneur and website owner (my web site MakingLemonade.com is a community for single parents) I knew from my son-the-teenager, back in April of 2005, that MySpace.com was a hot property. (We all must have real estate on the web.)  So, I researched and I did my due diligence with trusted investors.  I read what Natalie Pace had to say about MySpace.com as well, and THEN I jumped.  It happened the week before my 51st birthday, the day after I had a dream that the stock would become famous.  I pushed the buy button and buckled my virgin-investor seat belt.  I was NOW a stockholder with a dream, with a piece of the proverbial pie.  I am a tech girl by nature, so I am drawn to tech stocks because that is who I am.

So was my dream a prophecy as I had felt?  Was I as foolish as my left-brained broker-mentor told me I was?  Well, all I can say is take your worse nightmare and add a pitch of "told you so" and you'd have what happened next. Three days following my brilliant purchase of MIX stock, Elliot Spitzer (feel free to GOOGLE him for more info) sued my savior stock for a series of [alleged] Wall Street crimes and the stock fell like a ride at Magic Mountain.  I panicked, I lost sleep, and I even sought advice from a psychic.  

Not only could I not sleep at night, I had enough hot sweats to give menopause a new name.  Had I been too quick to push the BUY button?  As I entered the "Should I stay or should I go" syndrome - all I could hear were the echoes from the past, from a 'long-forgotten-due-to-therapy' chorus of  "What were you thinking??!!!" in my ears. Had I indeed been better off putting all of my money on 23 black on the roulette wheel?  I laid in bed thinking of all the ways I could have spent that forsaken investment.... five month's rent, a trip to New York or Paris, plus those outrageous pair of boots I had cooed over in In Style Magazine.  

I felt lost and stupid and alone in my 'woe is me' world.  I HAD to talk myself back into the world of grown-up, where we acknowledge our mistakes and move on. But, why couldn't I move on?  I still felt a tinge of a possible "comeback"; after all, this is Hollywood - the land of the comeback.  If only I could only hang on to the belief in turnarounds and magic.  I needed to hang on to my hopes and dreams of the American way.  I know, as a single mom, I am a Superwoman, but truth be told - I cannot leap tall buildings or truly predict the future.  But I CAN follow my hunches and choose to truly feel that in some cosmic way I did buy a piece of something I believe in.  And, I do believe in building community on and off line, and I do believe in owning a piece (and hopefully peace) of Wall Street.

And then I called Natalie Pace.  She shared with me, the novice of novices, stories and analogies from her history files - and I found the meaning inside those stories.  One of the stories she told me was of a woman who was going to get out of the stock market and take a large loss at a time, in October 2002, when the markets were at a 5-year low. Natalie explained that education is always better than panicking and that the markets were at a 5-year low.  Historically, she explained, it is not a good idea to sell low, unless you're talking about an Enron or a Global Crossing.  The woman hung on, the market came back and she became very happy she stayed in the market.  

Natalie's story brought home to me the point to NOT be fueled by emotions when it comes to selling; and that to "know when to hold 'em/know when to fold 'em" comes very much into play in the market and not just in the realm of relationships.  I learned, from the story that it is best to have a clear, non-emotional head and to know what comes down can come UP (and vice versa). That assurance gave me a breath and a knowing that if I just sat on my hands and breathed - I would be able to see much more clearer what to do. Waiting and watching and educating myself really helped during this period.  Also I learned NOT to listen to any one else's advice to "get out NOW."  After all, it is MY money and my very own vision of the stock and company I bought into.  

I held on.  I gathered a buddy system through YAHOO stock newsgroups that had also invested in this myspace.com/MIX phenomenon - so I was not alone.  I am a hand holding kind of girl! What was funny was that the stock HAD become famous - even infamous, as in my dream, but not for the reasons I had assumed.  Like a celebrity who gets in the papers with their name spelled correctly, my stock had its month in the limelight. And NOW because of Spitzer, people KNEW about MIX and myspace.com. Just a few short months after, Rupert Murdoch decided he needed to own myspace.com (to capture the 14 - 36 plus demographic). The stock soared, and so did my hopes and dreams!

Albeit, I didn't make enough for Sam's college education or that car he wants, but I did prove to myself that with some moxie, education, a buddy system - PLUS some dollars - I CAN make a difference in my finances and empower myself to continue this exciting financial journey in the stock market. I made a lot of money (to me) for what was really a very short period of time.  Although my hope was that someone else would out bid this Mogul (which did not occur), I still gained a real presence of confidence and gratitude that I was brave, strong and confident enough to follow my dreams.  

Most of all I built a trust in myself that I can, with careful study and the help of gurus, build a solid portfolio and a trust in myself that no one can infiltrate.  I am a "winner" in the stock market with a success story that makes me proud, and one I can share with other virgins wanting to dip their toes in the market waters.  With my current proven confidence that I can make it though the Wall Street Dark Night of the Soul, I have a newly anointed knowing that with education, staying power and some guts - I can continue to invest - in myself, my future and in our country. And now, I can even translate and deliver those dreams to my son, so he can create his future as an entrepreneur.

Can it get any better than that?

Jodi Seidler is the founder of the leading single parent information site MakingLemonade.com and the author of 55 Things Every Divorcing Mom Should Know!  Jodi not only has experience writing, speaking and coaching single parents, but also is also dedicated to helping single parents find their voice and career path and market it to the outside world. Feel free to connect with her at:  Jodi@makinglemonade.com


Recipe for Successful Investing:

by Natalie Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com

Cook Up Serious Profits With the Right Ingredients, Starting With Your Heart.

Natalie Pace, i-Sophia CEO and founder

Sometimes it is much easier than it sounds. The most overlooked ingredients for successful investing in any asset class - from real estate, to stocks, to Beanie Babies and classic cars -- are more available to you than you might think. You already know more about investing than you understand. Therefore, cooking up profits, if you stay true to what you know and understand most, can be yours without all of the mind-numbing charts.

Below is a three-step, easy-to-use recipe for successful investing that utilizes just three key ingredients. If you want to understand just how delicious the results from this recipe are, consider the returns on the companies featured in my newsletter - currently running at 47% annualized (or almost fifty cents on the dollar EVERY YEAR).

You might want to post this list in your bathroom or next to your computer when the numbers, charts and brain gymnastics associated with the due diligence of investing overwhelms you. As most seasoned money managers point out, no one has a crystal ball for the markets. The below strategies, however, when diligently combined, are about as foolproof as investing gets.

Any great chef knows that no matter how fancy or complicated your recipe gets, you must never lose track of the fundamentals. Whether your passion is candlestick charts, commodities or condos, it will pay off to know where your target lies on the foundation of investing -- before you place your money on the line.

Main Ingredients:
1. Start with companies (or real estate or collectibles) that you understand AND care about.
2. Pick the leader in the sector.
3. Buy low/sell high.

1. Start with your heart and add your brain: The most successful investors on the planet do it
There are many reasons to invest in companies you know and love. Peter Lynch says, "If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock." Warren Buffet is notorious for avoiding NASDAQ during the bubble (and bust). Buffet's portfolio didn't see the highs or lows of the Internet cycle, but he did see steady growth to the tune of staying the world's second wealthiest man, according to Forbes magazine.

You Know Before the Analysts
Consumers get the information BEFORE it shows up in an earnings report! If the product is headed downhill fast, and all of your friends are shopping at the competitor's store, you can bet that the next quarterly earnings report is not going to be a champagne-popping affair. There are many signs when companies are booming (sales are out of this world, consumers can't get enough, companies are buying back their own stock, insiders are on a buying spree), and equally enough red flags when times get rough (bond offerings, empty stores, outdated product line, consensus insider selling, decline in quality, poor customer service).

If you understand, like and use the product, you probably understand what makes your favorite company's products BETTER than the competition. You may not understand exactly HOW they do it, but you know firsthand that the company is getting something right, and you likely know it BEFORE the earnings show up on an analyst's desk. Buying in before the professionals tell the crowd to buy means that you can sell high when everything hits a frenzy, and buy low; sell high works every time.

Socially Conscious
Investing in companies you know and love also means promoting things that you believe in (and vice versa). You can actively create good in the world by putting your money where your mouth is. How many Americans who boycott or sue tobacco companies own mutual funds with Altria stock (Philip Morris' parent company) without even knowing it? The numbers might surprise you. Do you know which companies make up your mutual fund? Are you boycotting and picketing companies that you own stock in? In Cowboy terms, that's the same thing as shooting yourself in the foot. Know your portfolio and make a change if you don't approve of the company or the products. It is one of the most effective ways to change the world you live in.

Your Radar is Up
Your antenna for news on a company that you know and love is always on high alert. If you pass a newsstand with a headline on your favorite company, you're likely to stop and buy the paper. If someone at a party mentions your company, you're likely to find a way to eavesdrop or enter the conversation. Since successful investing means predicting the futureÑwhether or not your company will continue to grow in earnings and share priceÑyou need to know what's going on! How are you going to convince yourself to keep up on a widget with a company description that looks like hieroglyphics?

2. Pick the leader in the sector: Line Up the Competition
Here is where the numbers are critical. You need a company that is poised to lead its industry in market share and growth, while buying it at a reasonable price. Lining up the numbers can help tremendously! Is your company profitable? Is it carrying a lot of debt? Is it vulnerable to younger, leaner companies? What are the insiders doingÑbuying or selling? Once you line up your favorite company alongside its competitors in a Stock Report Card (NataliePace.com publishes one with every ezine), the puzzle pieces start to fill in and the picture begins to reveal itself. To gain more competence in this game, read NataliePace.com religiously, especially the monthly Stock Report Cards. Consider the target investment to be a mosaic with 100 tiles. The more tiles you turn over, the clearer the picture of whether or not the investment is a smart idea. Do your due diligence and don't be pushed into ACTING NOW. (People who rush you into quick decisions are either salespersons or scam artists.)

Price to Earnings Ratio
P/E: In general, the lower the P/E, the better the value (price). If the P/E is high for the industry or N/A (negative earnings), then either the share price is high, or the earnings are low. (Price to earnings ratio is affected by both numbers: share price divided by earnings per share.) P/E is not the easiest concept to grasp initially. Read up on it, and keep looking at your report cards. FYI: Young companies in rapidly growing sectors, like the Internet in the late 1990s and alternative energy companies today, will have negative earnings and/or high price to earnings ratios because you are investing in future earnings potential, not existing sales. Thus, there are times when you'd want to buy into a company with negative earnings and/or a higher price to earnings ratio.

Price
Check the 52-week high and the 52-week low at least! If the price can fluctuate between these highs and lows, what are the chances that you can pick up your company for a lower price this year, if you exercise a little patience? It's not a bad idea to check the 5 or 10-year trend as well. Many money sites offer easy links to create your own charts.

Blue Chips versus Small Caps
Market capitalization: Think of it this way. Multi billion dollar market capitalizations are like Jabba the Hut. They are big beaurocratic blobs that don't move very fast, have a lot of expenses, and rule the universe. Micro capitalization companies (under a billion in market capitalization) are like the hare. They can win the short dash because they are speedy and full of energy. They are not guaranteed to win the marathon, however. Jabba the Hut has friends in high places, and will likely pull out all the stops to be victorious in the end. So Blue Chips typically stabilize your portfolio and have more conservative returns with lower risk, while small caps have more risk and, on average, a higher rate of return (unless they go belly-up).

Is the Company Losing Money?
Check the Sales/Income link on your favorite money site. The company may have multi billions in sales, but is it profitable? Make sure you look at the income, in addition to the sales. Hint: If the P/E is N/A, then the company is losing money.

Debt Can be a Big Deal
Debt/Equity Ratio: You can identify the long-term debt of the company by multiplying the debt/equity ratio with the market capitalization. You'd be surprised at the kind of debt some of the more established companies in America are carrying, particularly the domestic automakers, network airlines, Sallie Mae and Freddie Mac, to name a few É Be aware also that corporations are not yet required to list their pension and health care plan liabilities. Thus, any corporation that was founded before 1980 that still has a defined-benefits pension plan is probably in more debt than their balance sheet indicates. For example, according to Standard and Poor's, General Motors owed over $69 billion in Pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (i.e. health care, etc.) at the end of December 2005.

What are the Chairman and CEO doing: Buying or Selling?
Insider Trading: Insiders tip their hand on how they feel about their company's future with their buying and selling of their own options. Consensus insider selling is typically a red flag, while consensus insider buying would indicate that insiders have a reasonably good reason to believe in the future growth of the company. This is not a reliable measure by itself, due to tax considerations and philanthropy, but many executives, especially rookie executives, just can't help themselves from sticking their hands in the cookie jars. Also, corporate buybacks can be a good sign from the board that it believes in the future of the corporation and that the current price is a bargain.

3. Buy Low/Sell High.
Easy to say. Hard to do. Buying low means that when everyone else thinks it's the Apocalypse, you're out there planting seeds. Selling high means that when everyone is popping champagne, partying and bragging about their earnings, you're the one sobering up, selling out and heading home, while everyone tells you how crazy you are to leave when the party is just getting started! Check the 52-week high and low, as well as the five and ten year highs and lows. Consider seasonal market trends. Will there be a better buying opportunity in a few months (or longer), or is it important to buy in now? If your company has had a good run-up, is it time to take some profits and redistribute your assets?

Remember that a "rising tide lifts all boats," while a sinking tide grounds all! It is very difficult for even great companies to swim against the tide during a market correction. You could have thrown a dart at a wall full of stocks in 1999 and seen incredible profits, while 2000-2002 were all losing years. Your best protections against bear markets and to ensure a great future are asset allocation, a long-term plan and ongoing education. Your best recipe for cooking up great profits on any investment is with this easy, 3-step investment recipe!

Full Disclosure: Natalie Pace owns short positions in General Motors.


A View From a Broad.

by Janet Hanson, founder of 85 Broads, a Global Women's Network.

Excerpt from the book More Than 85 Broads,

caption: Janet Hanson and the 85 Broads Race for the Cure Team (Janet is in the pink shirt)

In 1987, I resigned from a blockbuster 11-year career at the premier investment banking firm of Goldman Sachs. I had gotten married in 1980 to a wonderful guy I worked with. We sat directly across from each other on the trading floor. We had been secretly dating for three years and so our engagement announcement was a tremendous shock to our colleagues in the Fixed Income Division. Unfortunately, we got divorced four years later when we figured out that while we loved being business colleagues, we were not in love. We continued to sit across from each other on the sales desk as we truly enjoyed working with each other. We even had "joint custody" of our teddy bear, Joe.

But then an interesting thing happened. My ex-husband immediately started dating lots of nice gals and I had no dates. I didn't even have a single prospect in sight. But having no dates allowed me to work longer hours. A year later, I became the co-manager of the Money Market Sales Group in New York, which was the first time in Goldman's history that a woman had been promoted to sales management. I was ecstatic. And since I didn't have a social life, I started working on the weekends as well. My "ex" thought I was crazy to take on more responsibility on top of a full client load, and he thought it was amusing that I was now his boss.

For the next year while he dated, I worked. He even got red roses from a gal on Valentine's Day. They were delivered right to his desk. About six months after we split up, we decided to go out to dinner for old time's sake. We were drinking margaritas out of glasses the size of soup bowls and before long we were reasonably hammered. I looked at my "ex" and said, "Gee, we seem to be having so much fun, do you think we'll ever get back together?" I might as well have hit him in the face with a bucket of ice water; he looked at me and said, "no f 'ing way!" Although hurt, I had the courage to ask him why; he looked at me and said, "Because you're too old." He told me that since he was no longer married to me that he was under no obligation to date someone "my age." At the time, I was 32 and he was 36. No one I've ever told this story to has understood why at that moment I thanked him. I thanked him because even though the message was brutal, it was the absolute truth. I started to think about the guys on the trading floor who I worked with and realized that one of two things was trueÑthey were either married and had kids or single and dating super models who were in their early 20s. At that moment I knew there was a very low probability that I would ever get remarried as long as I worked all day and entertained clients most nights.

In the three years that followed my divorce I had exactly two blind dates. They were guys that weren't "in the business," which meant that we had nothing in common. That was when I coined my favorite expression, "sometimes you just can't drink enough," to explain what a disaster the dating scene was for me. I was a Wall Street "big hitter" and wanted to date someone who was fun and sophisticated. I soon discovered that most of the cool guys wanted to date women who were beautiful and sexy, which was not an easy look to accomplish if you worked like a dog and looked like you had.

Caption: The 85 Broads Fashion Show
Photo: 85Broads.com

So in January of 1987, when I was sailing in the Caribbean with my parents and siblings, I made the decision to resign from the firm. I was overweight, I drank too much, and I felt tired and old. I'd had an outrageous career at Goldman Sachs, worked with some of the best and smartest people on Wall Street, but I had no personal life. And worse than that, I had absolutely no prospects.

On April 15, the tax date, I left the firm. The "To All" memo said I was taking a leave of absence to open a marina with my father. To this day, I cringe when I think about that memo, as I needed appropriate "cover" for leaving. In reality, I was leaving because I was terrified that I'd never get remarried and have kids. I was turning 35 that year and the term middle-aged was starting to creep into my thought process. The day I walked out of Goldman Sachs was one of the most painful days of my life. I was leaving the best friends in the world, an ex-husband who I still liked and admired, and a firm and a culture that for the most part, I loved and respected. I left my apartment in New York City and moved to Princeton to live with my sister. I was so depressed that there were days when I couldn't even get out of bed. It took me almost two months to get on my bike and start the process of putting myself back together physically and mentally. And it took another three months before I started to feel like a human being.

One day during the summer I got a call from Peter Mathias, who was an internal consultant at Goldman Sachs. I liked Peter a lot and respected the work he had done for senior management. He had a doctorate in business from Harvard and was a brilliant strategic thinker. He wanted to know if I would like to work with him a few days a week on various projects, and I thought, what the heck, I can always quit if it doesn't work out.

And so in October of that year, I was back at 85 Broad Street. I'll never forget riding the elevator up to the 27th floor to visit all my friends. People I'd worked with for over a decade couldn't figure out why I'd come back. I remember one of my former colleagues shaking his head and saying, "I don't get it. You left the trading floor and a huge job just so you could come back here part-time to work in Personnel?"

Actually, I didn't get it either. I had torpedoed my career at the firm just so I could work out for a summer and get back in shape. I was so embarrassed to be working in Personnel that I never went back to the trading floor.

Not long after I returned to GS, I reconnected with Jeff Hanson, a really nice young guy who had tried to interview me a few times as one of the firm's "culture carriers." I realized that I'd never made an attempt to get to know him, which was unfortunate as he had a brilliant analytical mind and was great fun to talk to. He was a little full of himself but not to the point of being obnoxious. After one date, we decided we were truly meant for each other. Three weeks later, we got engaged. That might have set the speed record for courtships, but it didn't feel that way. We got married on April 6, 1988, at City Hall. We would have gotten married sooner, but I wanted to wait until the sun was out which I thought would be a good omen. Amazingly, my brother and sister and I all got married within six months of each other. My brother, age 36, got married in November of 1987, my sister, age 34, got married in January of 1988, and I got married at age 35 in April of 1988. It was pretty amazing given that all of us had been dating our future spouses for less than a year. My parents were understandably in seventh heaven.

On October 13, 1988, Meredith was born and two years later, on December 12, 1990, Christopher was born. During that time, Jeff left Goldman Sachs to launch a consulting business, which hadn't exactly been a barn-burning success. By the time Christopher was born, we were in dire financial straights. We were renting a house in Westchester and owned a house in Naples, Florida, which made no sense at all. I think I was about as depressed as I've ever been. In October 1990 I wrote the following entries in my diary:

October 9, 1990

Dear Diary,

I'm sitting here paying bills, doing absolutely ZERO that is fulfilling or satisfying and wishing that I could close my eyes and make it all go away. I want to start my own business but the only reason I'm doing it is because I'm embarrassed not to be doing SOMETHING. Then I think maybe I'll write a book, but after I come up with a title, I can't think of anything to say. I have NO ONE to talk to. No one who could say, hey, let's look at your options, let's figure out where it would be smartest for you to focus.

I'm thinking of starting a coaching business and yet I'M the one who needs coaching! If I could just believe in myself a little bit, if I could just get the right ball in play, if I could just get past my own depression and break freeÑI know there is a need for this type of service. I just need help putting it together and packaging it. Each day I get more and more despondent over my almost complete lack of faith in my ability. I have absolutely no support system.

October 10, 1990

Dear Diary,

I'm sitting here staring out my window wondering what I'm going to do with myself. If only we had enough money we could split but I figure we're stuck here for two more years. I'll probably start watching soap operas and drinking martinis at 2 o'clock in the afternoon. The boredom is excruciating. Maybe I should join some clubs. But I don't want to do that because I'm so afraid my personal time will be eaten up by dumb stuff.

I wish I could get into painting so I could spend Meredith's naptime more productively. All I do now is talk to my friends from work on the phone and refigure our finances for the thousandth time. Then I wait for Mer to wake up from her nap. Figuring out how to use up three hours after that is brutal. I wish I had a best friend here. I wish I had a life here. This pretty much sucks.É

On September 20, 1990, I had written a letter to Jon Corzine at Goldman Sachs telling him about the coaching business I hoped to start and why I thought it was so important for the women at Goldman Sachs:

Dear Jon,

I plan to start my own coaching business in the next few months and intend to target the women at Goldman as potential clients. Women need help in how to handle a dual-career marriage, maternity leave, time management, and getting and staying ahead in an increasingly competitive work environment. In the last three years, I have seen women opt to leave the firm rather than try to articulate their problems to management in a way that makes professional sense. Typically management doesn't even know there is a problem until the woman announces that she is leaving! Regrettably, this is because women find it extremely difficult to "connect" with their (male) managers. Women ask me for career advice because I was a manager, as they perceive that I have insight into how the firm is run/managed, which they lack. In essence, they speak one "language," and I speak two. By "translating" what their (male) managers say I can provide them with greater insight, which helps build their confidence and self-esteem. As a rule, I look for what's positive in a work relationship to counter women's fears that the worst is happening.

If my business gets off the ground, maybe Goldman will want to hire me as a "field adviser."

Anyway, Jon, you've been a great friend. Without doubt, you have cared more about the people in the divisionÑpast and presentÑthan all the other partners combined.

As always,

Janet

When Christopher was born two months later, all of my business plans went on indefinite hold. I used to say that when Meredith was born she looked at me and smiled and said, "Mom, let's go have coffee." When Christopher was born, he looked at me and started screaming. He was the most adorable baby but he was also the world's unhappiest. I am sure that my depression and plummeting self-esteem were contributing factors to how he viewed the world.

For the next 10 months I battled every single day to keep my head above water. I was mind-numbingly depressed and could barely get myself out of bed in the morning. I don't remember a single happy moment. Jeff and I fought almost constantly about money. I think it would be fair to say that I hated my life and felt like the walls were closing in on me. I realize now that I should have been on antidepressants but I was too afraid that I would gain even more weight. I was out of shape, had never lost the 50 pounds I'd gained from my pregnancy, and as a result, I had a totally shattered self-image.

TO BE CONTINUED NEXT MONTHÉ

In her new book, More than 85 Broads, trailblazing superstar Janet Hanson introduces us to some of the most remarkable, courageous, and successful members of 85 Broads, a global women's network she founded in 1999. Women--and men--will want to discover "the power of the network" at every stage of their careers and lives.

 

How to Ask for a Raise and Get It.

by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.

Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
Photo credit: Mary Ann Halpin

"I'm going to ask for a raise," I declared to my co-worker and friend, Jennifer.

"Yeah? Why do you think you deserve one?" she asked.

I was incensed. What did she mean? Wasn't she my friend?

"Well, I've been here a year already," I huffed.

"So what? Just warming the bench doesn't mean you deserve more money," she replied.

Tuna Chellie frowned and looked at her resentfully.

"Come with me," she said, and motioned for me to sit down in her office. Then she taught me what I needed to know.

"Asking for a raise is just like making a sale," Jennifer said. She went on to tell me that you have to list all your accomplishments and what they mean to the company in terms of producing or saving money. Just doing an acceptable job at what you were hired to do doesn't mean you deserve more money. Raises come to people who have done an exceptional job, and have worked at a level beyond the scope of their current job. She showed me how to compare how things were at the company when I arrived, how I have improved them, and what they are like now. She told me to research other companies and what they were paying people in similar jobs. Armed with this new sales technique, I went in to see the boss, closed the sale, and got a raise.

That was many years ago, but I never forgot Jennifer's training, and I know a lot of people never had a Jennifer in their life to share with them this valuable lesson. It's another sales lesson. Whether you're asking a boss for a raise or raising your rates to your clients, you have to make the sale. Paint the picture of how much you have done in the past and what you are going to do in the future to make their lives better and more prosperous, so that they can see you deserve more money.

You have to get comfortable with earning more money and being more abundant. Practice saying your new salary or your new price so that you can say it without hesitation. If you think it's a big number, your awe will show, and people will talk you out of it. Often people who have rich clients are afraid to ask for a reasonable amount of money for their products or services. A massage therapist might feel awkward asking for $125 for a massage if he couldn't afford to get regular massages himself.

A Little Exercise to Enlarge Your Income
Here's something to practice that could greatly increase your income. Let's say that your current price for your product or service is $100 and you'd like to start charging $150. For you to say, "I charge $150" after you've been saying $100 for a long while is difficult. It's uncomfortable because you're in the habit of saying $100. All your fears about your worthiness and ability to receive abundance clutch at your insides. You choke on the words, stutter, or make your request weakly, wincing while you say, "I, uh, charge, er, a hundred and um, ah, fifty dollars??"

The client is going to call that obvious bluff immediately: "A hundred and fifty dollars!?? That's too much money!" That will never do.

You've got to say your new price proudly and strongly. You have to practice saying it, so that you can toss the figure away when you say it, like you think its nothing. Here's the trick that will help: Take the new price (not the current price) you want to chargeÑ$150Ñand double that to $300. Sounds outrageous, doesn't it? That's the point. Now practice saying that price: "I charge $300," "I charge $300," over and over. At least twenty times a day for a week or two. You will be amazed at how little $150 sounds to you after that. You'll speak it easily to your clients, because after $300, $150 sounds like a bargain. Your clients will take their cue from you this time, too, and be more likely to have a more relaxed acceptance of your price.

Many of my clients have been amazed at how well this exercise has worked for them. Not only that, but a lot of them reported their clients mentioned being surprised their prices had been so low and were waiting for them to start charging a higher rate.

The Small Business Administration reports that one of the top reasons small businesses go under is that they don't charge enough money for their products or services. My client, Adi, taught all-day Yoga classes and charged $6. He got ten students, one of whom didn't even pay the $6. He knew his pricing was too low, but he just enjoyed teaching the class and didn't want money to stand in the way of people attending. But he needed more money in his life, so he decided to charge $235 for the next all-day session. He got three students. In the first scenario, he made $54. In the second, he made $705. The difference in his income was $651.

How Much Money Do You Want?
I give myself a raise every year or so. If I were working for someone else I'd want a raise, and I want to be a better boss to myself than someone else. A lot of entrepreneurs who don't pay themselves enough money would never work for such a chintzy boss in the corporate world. In fifteen years of teaching classes, I have found that how much I charge makes no difference in attendance at my workshops. It makes a difference in who attends, not how many attend. There are about 20 million people in the greater Los Angeles area, and I don't need all of themÑI only need twelve. So I call until I get twelveÑyou see? If I charged less, in order to make the same income, I would have to enroll many more people. Then I would have to book a hotel instead of doing it at my house, that would cost more money so I'd need to enroll more people and then I'd need more help and then I'd have to have employees and then I'd have to enroll more people to pay the employees and then it's a bigger business than I want. And I've lost the life I want.

But the sales process for my workshop businessÑthe enrollment conversationÑtakes the same amount of time, no matter what my price is. That's why bankers don't bother with small loansÑit takes them the same amount of time to process a $10,000 loan as a $10 million loan and they make a lot more money on the bigger loan. In the same way, I want to make sure the pricing works for me, first. You need to start with your vision, then work backwards to see what you need to charge in order to create your living the way you want to live your life. If people want the benefits of what you do, they will pay the price for it, whatever it is. There will always be people who "can't afford you." You can't bring your pricing down to the lowest common denominator and only charge a dollar because there are poor people who need you who only have a dollar. You can run a charity like that, but you can't run a business like that. Don't choose a non-profit business model unless you're a bona-fide 501c3.

Chellie Campbell is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and gives programs throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's Ezine at www.chellie.com.


International Investing:

by Natalie Pace

5 Tips to Make Sure You Build an Ark Instead of the Titanic to Navigate the Globe.

I recently attended a women's conference where one of the money tips was to invest abroad. Great idea! What most of the attendees wondered, however, was where do you begin? While diversifying a portfolio is a great thing, as is capitalizing on the growth of other countries, investing abroad does have its own pitfalls. Since we'd like to flood your freedom plan with profits and not sink the nest egg, read below for 5 MUST KNOW Tips for Investing Internationally.

1. China: Never Pay Retail! China has had the most impressive growth of any country in the world for almost a decade now. Just like NASDAQ in 1999, you could have thrown a dart in 2002 at any publicly-traded company in the vicinity of China -- from Hong Kong, to Singapore, to Taiwan (Shanghai didn't have much of a market back then) -- and posted WOO HOO!! gains. That is not the case today. Many experts in the Chinese economy warn that publicly-traded companies are full-valued, meaning that if you invest blindly, you could be paying top-dollar. Paying high is a vulnerable position if China were to run into some difficulty, so it's a much better idea to put Chinese stocks to the same rigorous growth and value test that you would any U.S. company.

For more information, read: China: From Confucius to Communism to Capitalism: Are Your Investment Dollars Safe There? Written by: Tara Vandenberg.

2. Hong Kong not Shanghai. The People's Republic of China stagnated economically under six decades of Communist rule, while Hong Kong flourished under the U.K.s free economy for almost a century. There is a huge learning gap between the GAAP accounting standards of the two economies. In general, it is safer to go with a company that is based out of Hong Kong, Singapore or Taiwan, than a mainland Chinese company. There are a few companies that are based in China, however, that have adopted the most rigorous of accounting standards ? Sarbanes-Oxley! These companies will likely boast of the achievement on the Investor Relations page. You?ll need to do more due diligence with the mainland company to be sure that their accounting standard is "Westernized." One easy way to gauge the company is to check out the Chief Financial Officer. If the CFO is Western-educated and has previously served at a prestigious Western accounting firm, like Deloitte and Touche, that is a good sign!

Ed's Note: There are two mainland companies listed on the Natalie Pace Hot News on Cool Stocks article this month - Suntech Power Holding Co. and Sohu.com.

3. Eastern Europe, not Western Europe. Eastern Europe has a very high concentration of well-educated persons. Over the last few years, many Eastern European countries have been aggressive about advancing personal freedom to own property and about establishing pro-business policies. As a result, Estonia, the Czech Republic and Lithuania all rank in the 25 most economically "free" countries in the world, according to the Center for International Trade and Economics. The Gross Domestic Product growth rate of these Eastern European countries has been on the high end of the world's countries, double that of their Western European counterparts.

2004 European Gross Domestic Product growth rate.

Country

GDP Growth Rate

Index Ranking of Economic Freedom

Estonia

6.2%

7

Lithuania

9%

23

The Czech Republic

4.0%

21

France

2.1%

44

Germany

1.6%

19

Source: 2006 Index of Economic Freedom

Ed's Note: A higher percentage means better economic growth. 1-2% is anemic, almost flat economic growth, which is only slightly better than a decline or recession.

4. India: The World's Largest Democracy India is another country that ranks low, at #121, on the Index of Economic Freedom, but is experiencing an impressive 8.6% GDP growth rate. What gives? India may not have advanced individual freedoms, by Western standards, but the growth of personal freedoms on their own economic evolutionary timeline is intoxicating. (For more information on how becoming more free translates into economic growth, read the Theory of Economic Evolution.)

Indians are educating their people and competing on the world stage for sophisticated clientele, in areas as important as technology, surgery, health care and more. A huge "travel" health care business is thriving in India, since Americans can undergo quality surgical procedures at one-tenth of the cost, and have a vacation to the Taj Mahal to boot!

Before you think that just any old industry rocks in this country, however, consider your own experience with the nation's most thriving business - outsourcing. If outsourcing hasn't ruined your sex life, your family life and your business, while you wait on hold for hours to speak to someone who is exceedingly unhelpful, then just ask anyone within firing range if they would invest in an Indian outsourcing business. Personally, I'm not into promoting a business that leaves me red in the face with frustration, and I'm hoping if you vote with your dollars, too, then the whole mess of phone center outsourcing will disappear. Your callÉ

5. Exchange-Traded Funds, Not Mutual Funds. As you can see from the below chart, there has been a steady flow of money away from the fee-loaded mutual funds into the almost free Exchange-Traded Funds (or ETFs), many of which are traded on the American Stock Exchange. Check with your broker and/or brokerage for a list of funds, or browse the offerings at the American Stock Exchange for the most comprehensive listing of ETFs. If your company's choices are too limited, check into the possibility of rolling over your company 401(k) FOR FREE into an online discount brokerage (or a full-service brokerage) Individual Retirement Account, where the choices tend to be more flexible. There are qualifying events that enable you to rollover for free without any penalty at all, even while you are still employed. Check with your human resources person and/or call your broker. Click to access a list of online discount brokerages. These sites have become great at providing click-happy do-it-yourselfers with everything you need to succeed. If you'd rather just find a broker, be sure to read "Brokers and Lovers: It Pays to Pick a Good One" for great tips on how to interview the 2nd most important man (or woman) in your life.

source: MoneyCentral.msn.com

BONUS TIP: Tithe to Yourself! Wonder how much you should be setting aside for your financial freedom 401(k)? If you tithe 10% to yourself, you can become a millionaire in just 31 years, even if you make only $14/hour, thanks to the power of compounding. That works even if you NEVER GET A RAISE for the entire time. (So imagine how much faster you can reach your goal if you increase your responsibility and your earning potential!) For more information on the math of becoming a millionaire simply by tithing to yourself, read the article, "From Flipping Burgers to Owning Your Own Island." T. Harv Eker has a great "jar" system, where you pay yourself FIRST, setting aside 10% to your financial freedom plan, 10% to your education fund (yours not your kid's), 10% for your FUN and 10% for your charitable giving, instead of plunking down 100% of your paycheck each month for bills and your daily dose of caffeine (lattes add up to $75/month!). Harv's system works. Click on Harv, and start applying this simple system for great results.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.


Dealing with Climate Change, and Taking Advantage of Sunny Days.

by Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

Paul Woods, President & CEO, Odyssey Advisors LLC.

Is it just me, or are you getting a little tired of the hand-wringing media coverage of every hot day? All we hear is OMIGOD, THE PLANET IS GETTING WARMER. However, a caveat needs to be added to put this in perspective. Saying something is getting warmer begs the question, warmer than what? As it turns out, the answer is the planet is now warmer than it was during the last mini ice age that ended a few hundred years ago. I don't know about you, but I like being outdoors without a parka and am having a hard time getting too worked up about this.

Avoiding Courtrooms
From the coverage of this issue, it's easy to get the impression there's universal scientific consensus that global warming is man-made and caused by greenhouse gas emissions. What's interesting, however, is that lawyers don't appear to be in any hurry to have both sides of this issue aired in a courtroom, even in California. Oil companies are the ultimate deep-pocketed target, and their pockets are getting deeper every day. If the case is airtight, why aren't lawyers lined up to sue them for global warming? Following are some of the reasons this case may never see a courtroomÉ

Reference Points
Reference points make or break any discussion of climate change. There's no question the planet is warmer than it was during the last mini ice age that ended a few hundred years ago. However, that was an unusually cold period in the earth's history and about the only people who would trade the current climate for that one are skiers. If the reference point is changed to around 1,000 years ago, a reasonable conclusion would be that we might be a little cooler, but there's been little change in global temperatures. Going back longer than that, there were numerous periods when the planet was much warmer than it is now and using those periods as reference points could make a very persuasive case for global cooling.

Some Perspective
The reference points used to make the argument that current temperatures are unusually high tend to be fairly recent and are rarely longer than a few centuries. There's good reason for that, as The History of Climate Change demonstrates. The first graph showing global temperatures going back a million years puts current temperatures in perspective. When measured over a long period of time, current temperatures are still slightly below average. It can get a lot warmer and still be in a normal range. A full cycle (ice age to hot, back to ice age) appears to take around 100,000 years and the current long-term warming cycle started when the last major ice age ended around 20,000 years ago.

OOPS
Taking climate changes that have occurred over a few decades and projecting them to infinity can produce some pretty silly conclusions. For instance, a few decades ago, environmentalists and scientists with very impressive credentials were up in arms about global cooling. The planet had gone through a short cooling cycle from 1945-1975, which is why most graphs of global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions usually start after that. Interestingly, Newsweek Magazine seems to have turned off the link to their famous article, but we still found it at denisdutton.com. It's worth going to the PDF version to get the full graphics that were included in the original article.

As you can see, unless something was done about global cooling, there would be dire consequences. The planet would become too cold to grow enough food and lots of people would starve. Is there widespread relief in the environmental community now that a warming planet makes it possible to grow more food in more places? Not a chance. Three decades later, environmentalists have gone from wringing their hands over global cooling to wringing their hands over global warming. What's also consistent is that, either way, drastic measures are going to have to be taken to change the climate or we'll be facing Armageddon.

Too Small to Matter?
To make it sound like a lot, environmentalists invariably talk about the TONS of hydrocarbons that end up in the atmosphere as greenhouse gasses, primarily carbon dioxide. A graph of several decades' worth of emissions that looks like the path up a steep hill is usually shown also. Sounds pretty serious, but keep in mind the earth's atmosphere is huge. In reality, greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere comprise less than 400 parts per million and the best term to describe them is miniscule.

At wikipedia.org there's a good description of the earth's atmosphere. For perspective, let's assume the atmosphere is a football field 100 yards wide. In this analogy, nitrogen would cover the first 78 yards, oxygen would take you to the 99-yard line, and argon brings you within 1.3 inches of the goal line. There are some inert gasses still left that reduce the distance to the goal line to just over 1.2 inches. What are left are the notorious greenhouse gasses, mostly carbon dioxide. We tried to create a chart to show this, but the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere was too small to show up.

Inconvenient Questions
If there's a direct connection between hydrocarbon emissions and global warming, how did the planet get cooler from 1945 though 1975 when those emissions were increasing? In addition, if the planet is now warmer than it was several hundred years ago, how could this warming cycle have started when fossil fuels weren't available and greenhouse comprised an even more miniscule amount of the atmosphere than they do now?

Finally, if we've turned loose all that greenhouse gas that's turning the earth into a hothouse, why is the planet not quite back to the same average temperature of 1000 years ago? And why is the climate still significantly cooler than it has been in the past?

What Consensus?
There are more than a few people on the other side of this debate and they aren't all crackpots. At last count, over 17,000 scientists had signed a petition from the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine that questions the link between hydrocarbons and global warming and the resulting doomsday predictions. Click here to view it.

Be Careful What You Wish For
Another reason there are unlikely to be any lawsuits for global warming is the issue of proving damages. They're hard to find. When environmentalists talk about reversing global warming, they appear to have forgotten their own dire warnings a few decades ago about the consequences of the planet getting any colder. Although there are pros and cons for each side, there's likely to be more food produced and fewer people starving if the planet continues to get warmer. For more info, click: nationalcenter.org.

A millennium ago when temperatures were a bit higher than they are now, agriculture flourished in Europe and as far north as Greenland. Warmer days will allow higher value crops and more food to again be grown in places farther from the equator. In addition, carbon dioxide acts as a fertilizer on plants while reducing transpiration (the passage of water through a plant's leaves to the atmosphere). As a result, the increase in food production may not require a corresponding increase in water.

According to the World Bank, one third of the world's population suffers from chronic water shortages and that number is expected to increase to 40% by 2025. While the scientific community is divided over many aspects of global warming, even the alarmists concede that more sunny days will increase the amount of condensation and evaporation. This will probably produce more and/or heavier rains that may help resolve water scarcity problems in some parts of the world.

The Crux of the Matter
There's little question the planet has been getting warmer for the last 20,000 years. The real crux of this debate has to do with the cause. If this is a natural phenomenon, we might as well sit back and enjoy the sunshine as the chances of doing anything about it are pretty slim. However, if this problem is man-made, blame can be assigned and those responsible can be forced to pay.

All the left wing politicians on the planet are falling over themselves to embrace "the man is responsible" explanation and the doomsday scenarios, and it isn't too difficult to guess why. This provides political cover for their favorite thing, higher taxes. After all, how can anyone argue against raising taxes on fossil fuels if this might prevent the horrors of catastrophic warming?

Saving the Planet by Enriching the Third World
The Kyoto Protocol, created by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, takes finger pointing a step further and blames countries. The fact that this was sponsored by the United Nations should raise an immediate red flag. Predictably, this applies to developed countries only, as egregious polluters in the third world like China, India, and Brazil are exempt.

Under this treaty, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be reduced to 1990 levels. Since this will probably take economic growth back 16 years also, a second alternative was created to make this more palatable. The capitalist polluters in developed countries can buy GHG emissions credits from the socialist polluters exempt from this UN treaty. Although the United States didn't sign this treaty, a lot European countries signed on and are now faced with the difficult task of trying to reduce their use of fossil fuels without killing their economies.

Making Alternatives More Attractive
Whether or not you buy the argument that man and fossil fuels are responsible, the one certain thing about global warming is that a lot of politicians are going to do everything they can to pile more taxes on fossil fuels because of it. They'll probably have some success, which will raise the cost of an increasingly scarce resource. The bottom line is that fossil fuels are a finite resource and, if demand keeps growing, production will be unable to keep up and higher prices will allocate the shortfall in supplies. We're going to have to find alternatives eventually, and the heavy hand of government is likely to bring that day a little closer by using global warming as an excuse to make fossil fuels even more expensive.

Taking Advantage of Sunny Days
On the off chance that a tax grab and a wealth transfer to the third world don't stop a warming cycle that began 20,000 years ago, one energy alternative is tailor made for more sunny days. Sunshine can be converted into electricity using solar panels. These are also the cleanest and safest method of power generation, don't require new infrastructure, generate power at the intended site, don't require transmission lines, can be connected to the existing electricity grid, produce completely renewable power, produce maximum power during periods of peak demand (middle of the day), require little maintenance, and can last up to 45 years.

For an investor, solar offers the combination of companies whose business is booming while the stocks are languishing. Demand is going through the roof from countries that signed on to the Kyoto Protocol, rapidly growing countries like China that are perpetually short of power, and increasing solar subsidies in many others. As a result, the biggest problem facing most solar companies today is meeting demand. Many have a 2-3 year order backlog while their stocks remain well below their highs for the year.

With the cost of solar coming down through economies of scale while energy prices and energy taxes continue to rise, solar has the potential to be competitive without subsidies in a few more years. At that point, demand will explode as the huge global market for electricity opens up. In the meantime, taxpayers will pay part of the cost of solar panels for your roof so you can at least save money on electricity bills until Armageddon arrives. For disclosure purposes, it should be noted that Odyssey Advisors has investments in Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Sun Power (SPWR) and SunTech Power (STP).

Editor's Note: For an alternative view of global warming, go to Al Gore's website and/or rent the movie, An Inconvenient Truth. To line up the numbers on the solar energy companies that are publicly traded, read the article "Solar Powers Whole Foods!" in this issue.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Paul Woods is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com

Copyright © 2006 by Odyssey Advisors LLC


Where Are the Back To School Stock Sales?

by Natalie Pace.

Includes Our Popular Hot News on Cool Stocks List, Featuring 23 GREAT Companies That are Racking Up ReturnsÉ

which keeps the companies featured on My NataliePace.com Hot News list at the top of Annualized Returns, with 48%, according to TipsTraders.com.

Adds:
Agilent, Suntech Holdings Co. Ltd. and Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (ETF).

Deletions:
Goldcorp. Goldcorp was taken off of the Hot News list effective 10.04.06. Gains since the first listing in 2003 were at 110%!

Look for Back to School Stock sales to add to your portfolio? Be choosy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flirting with its all-time high, which means that a lot of stocks are not bargains. Make sure you have a good reason for buying a stock with a Price to Earnings ratio that is higher than 19. It is also not a great time to sell anything either, since the Santa Rally and the pre-election year rally may be waiting in the wings for their gains! Still, as you can see, we have found three new beauties to add to our list!

Year

S&P

500

MidCap

Stocks

SmallCap

Stocks

All

Growth

All

Value

One Year Before Presidential Election

Average Return

20.14%

23.19%

27.18%

20.68%

20.04%

Election Years

Average Return

13.43%

15.05%

16.50%

10.69%

17.14%

One Year After Presidential Election

Average Return

7.33%

10.93%

11.63%

5.60%

12.28%

Two Years After Presidential Election

Average Return

8.31%

7.44%

7.34%

7.21%

10.65%

Source: Odyssey Advisors

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. Higher Interest Rates? The Federal Open Market Committee paused in September and August, after raising interest rates 17 consecutive times in previous meetings. The federal funds rate remains at 5 1⁄4%. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 24, 2006. Interested in reading the minutes of the August meeting for yourself? You can. They are available online. Click on FOMC Minutes to read!

The tentative meeting schedule for the rest of 2006 is: October 24 and December 12, 2006. In 2007: January 30-31, 2007, March 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday), May 9 (Wednesday), June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday), September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is an indicator that there is double the concern over managing the economy in the coming months and years.

2. Check the Calendar Section of NataliePace.com frequently for upcoming chats. We feature a money manager, Nobel Laureate, doctor or other VIP in our chat room every month. Available to subscribers only.

3. Important Commodities Quote: "The U.S. housing market alone accounts for approximately 5% of global demand for copper - thus a decline in housing should make a dent in copper needs. Nonetheless, many perceive secular growth in China and elsewhere to be driving commodities demand, while supply has been restricted by years of underinvestment." Tobias Levkovich, Chief Analyst, Citigroup, from the Portfolio Strategist, 9.14.06

Bottom Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information, but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your best strategy for using the information. That will depend upon your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service with a mission of providing the news and information you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying or selling any security.

Full disclosure: I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"

Hot Stocks
Investors who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price when first featured in the NataliePace.com ezine. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

9.29.06

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Agilent (Green)

No

A

$32.69

--

$39.54

$26.96

--

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on renewable energy.

Bioteq (Green) Environmental Technologies

RISK: VERY HIGH

Penny Stock in a great sector.

No

TSX: BQE

(Note: this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)

$.80

$1.65

$2.00

$.66

1.06%

Market Cap: $68.9 million. Outstanding Shares: 45.1M. Biz: "Solves the largest single liability facing the mining industry worldwide -- metal contaminated acid water." Reduces and/or eliminates sludge liability. Patented BioSulphide™ water treatment process. Market includes $72 billion in cleanup costs in the US and $6 billion in Canada. Q1 2006 revenue was $700,000. Q2, Q3 and Q4 2006 revenue estimates are $1 million, $1.4 million and almost $2M respectively. Buy recommendation with a one-year target of $2.10 from M Partners' analyst Lawrence Casse. Water treatment and metals recovery for acid-contaminated water in mining ind. Bioteq's customers include Jiangxi Copper (China), Breakwater Resources, Falconbridge, and Phelps Dodge. This company is only trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Go to Bioteq.CA for more info. When we first listed the company last year, it was a very high-risk penny stock. Bioteq's board and size lend more stability to this investment. Board includes: Kenneth F. Williamson, B.Sc., MBA (Chairman BlackRock Ventures Inc, Director Glamis Gold and Director Quadra Mining), Kelvin Dushnisky, M.Sc., LLB (Senior Vice President, Corporate Affairs Barrick Gold Corporation), and Ian Telfer, C.A. (President and Chief Executive Officer Goldcorp Inc.).

Blockbuster

RISK: VERY HIGH

No

BBI

$3.61

$3.84

$10.65

$3.19

+7%

See vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." Very high risk. Distressed acquisition play in a heated up M&A environment? Jules Haimovitz was added to its board on 5.26.06. Haimovitz is currently vice chairman and managing partner of TV production company Dick Clark Productions Inc. He was formerly president of MGM Networks Inc., a unit of Metro Goldwyn Mayer Inc., and served as president and chief operating officer of TV programming syndicator King World Productions Inc. Currently in a legal battle with NetFlix over the right to rent movies through the mail, which NetFlix claims to own the patent on. According to the AP, BBI is still considering the sale of some assets, and will, in the meantime, invest in a significant number of new Gamestation stores during 2007.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern Europe

No

EUROX

$33.87

$43.14

$50.20

$23.02

+27%

Vanguard seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries, in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund should reflect the difference.

Disney

No

DIS

$25.08

$30.91

$30.53

$22.89

+23%

"This season, half of the top 10 shows among young adults are on ABC, including such great series as Lost, Desperate Housewives, Grey's Anatomy and Extreme Makeover: Home Edition. And Dancing with the Stars was another great success for us, captivating audiences of all ages," Bob Iger, the Disney Shareholder Meeting. Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film company meets the most successful family media company meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds like the happiest place on Earth to us. As the largest individual stockholder, Steve Jobs may be the prime candidate for the new Chairman of the Board. Laura Martin, CFA, of Soleil Media Research Analysts, picks Disney and News Corp. as the media large caps with the "highest option value." Soleil also puts Google's value, based upon this same metrics, at $362/share.

Genentech

No

DNA

$13.50

$82.70

$100.20

$75.58

+512%

The FDA Priority Review of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage breast cancer has been extended to November, 2006 (or 90 days from 8.17.06). Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate the need for chemotherapy! Impatient investors who demand to have their DNA now run the risk of losing value if there is any report that casts DNA's drugs in a negative light. Biotechnology is a volatile sector. Popular #2 biotechnology company with lots of pipeline drugs, but priced accordingly. P/E: 54.20.

Google (Green)

No

GOOG

$85

$401.90

$475.11

$273.35

+372%

Google joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price. Soleil Media Research Analysts put Google's value, based upon forward-looking revenue metrics, at $362/share. If you've quadrupled your money, profit taking and capital gains are attractive these days. Announced 4Q earnings on 1.31.06.  Missed expectations, and investors panicked (as we'd warned they would). Google shares sank 12 percent in after-hours trading to $379.00, losing roughly $15.3 billion from their $128 billion market capitalization. Google dropped as low as $344.20 on 2.13.06. Very volatile, which makes for profitable "trading around the core." High price and high P/E of 59.

Krispy Kreme

RISK: VERY HIGH

No

KKD

$10.22

$8.10

$12.11

$4.40

-20.7%

Have you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? A survey of just a few shops revealed that the goods are selling great, and reflects well on the new management team's commitment to bringing in the dough to satisfy the sweet tooth of investors. KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. In turnaround mode, and trading at 5 year lows, though things have sweetened up since KKD hired Kraft Foods veteran Daryl Brewster as president and chief executive in March 2006. Taken off S&P Midcap 400 effective 10.27.05. The Company expects to report a net loss for the first two quarters of fiscal 2007. Hired the former general counsel from Winston-Salem-based Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI), Charles A. "Chuck" Blixt, 55, to serve as its top lawyer. Average weekly sales increased 8 percent in company-owned stores and 5 percent system wide, according to Krispy Kreme's sales report on 9.12.06.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Read Vol. 2, Iss. 7

The Venetian, Sands Macao

(1st mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)

RISK: MEDIUM

No

LVS

$37.43

$67.717

$73.13

$29.08

+81%

On Aug. 8, the Venetian and Southwest announced a "Bags to Go" program, which allows Venetian guests to avoid the 3-hour wait at the airport, and have their bags transported to the airport and checked in for them. (Forward-thinking action on the part of both companies; first to embrace this service!) Major growth stock, which means that the 52.90 P/E is high for buyers, but not necessarily for holders of the stock (and further upside potential means that a sell now may be pre-mature). The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q ?07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q ?07). 97% occupancy rates at the Venetian. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is also making deals with other Macao hotels to manage their casinos and show rooms, including the Four Seasons, Intercontinental Hotel, Holiday Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett, Shangri-La Hotel Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all on the Cotai Strip in Macao, "Asia's Las Vegas.™" Sands Macao is now the largest casino in the world with 740 table games. "The opening of The Venetian Macao next year will mark the presence of the first true Las Vegas-style Integrated Resort in Macao and will be followed by the opening of the rest of the Cotai Strip(TM) -- which will provide visitors an experience not replicated anywhere else in Asia," according to Bradley Stone, EVP. 2Q results on 8.2.06: Net revenue for the second quarter of 2006 increased 29.6% to $517.0 million compared to $398.8 million in the prior year's quarter. Net income was $109.3 million, over $86.4 million a year ago. Developing Singapore's first Integrated Resort, The Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which will serve the important South Asian marketplace, including India.

NetGear

RISK: MEDIUM

Trading in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.

No

NTGR

 

 

 

 

 

$12.42

$20.54

$25.73

$12.96

+65%

Watch Natalie Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), and NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business Excellence. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available for pre-order online for a price of $249.99. Skype currently has 100 million registered users, according to the NetGear press release, and the NetGear phone is the first Skype Wifi phone. An October report from Jupiter Research predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by 2010. Judges from the IT Industry and CRN readers rated NETGEAR Best in Service and Support among crowded networking category that included companies worldwide with both voice and data legacies in Dec. 2005. 2Q earnings on 7.27.06: $130.7 million in revenue, +21.5% from a year ago, and 2.7% higher than last quarter. Net income was $9.9 million +18.1% from a year ago. According to CEO Patrick Lo, NetGear has 58 new products. CFO Jonathan Mather is leaving on 10.31.06 to pursue other opportunities closer to his home base in Southern California, according to the company press release. A replacement is being searched for, and a smooth transition is anticipated.

News Corp.

Vol. 2, iss. 10

Owns Fox, MySpace and DirecTv.

Dividends

RISK: LOW

No

NWS.A

$15.88

$19.35

$19.71

$13.94

+22%

Read my vol. 3, iss. 9 article, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace, with 113 million registered users." As Rupert Murdoch noted in the last News Corp. earnings call, "One out of four people in America are interacting with [MySpace] content and services. To have achieved this in just one year is remarkable." The Google/Myspace deal gives News Corp. $900 million over the next few years, and is just the tip of the iceberg, according to COO Peter Chernin. MySpace is 2nd in page views online, behind Yahoo! and 6th in ranking, according to Comscore Media Metrix, which should start translating into a major jump in ad revenue this year, especially since MySpace's core demographic is the coveted 16-34 year olds. MySpace is now a Top 10 Global Internet Brand with over 100 million registered users, making it the 2nd fastest growing Internet site in the world. (Skype is #1!) Media is in favor for 2006, according to Smith Barney and Soleil Media research analysts. Mobizzo, Fox's mobile network, which pioneered text voting on American Idol, launched on 2.27.06, and will have micro-pay downloads of films and TV (including Napoleon Dynamite, the Fox cult film), games music and more. $59.58 billion market cap on sales of $24.65 billion, vs. Google's $119 billion MC on sales of $6.1 billion. 3Q revenues (5.10.06) increased to $6.2 Billion; net income more than doubled, to $820 Million. Rupert Murdoch has some talented, innovative leaders under his aegis, and they are hitting home profits. News Corp. has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0 billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly reinforces our view that repurchases of News Corporation shares are among the best uses of our cash in today's environment," according to Rupert.

Opsware

See issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.

RISK: MEDIUM

No

OPSW

$1.80

$8.72

$9.25

$3.90

+384%

It was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's share price. Announced that Q2 revenue grew to $25.1 million, up 78% year-over-year, 08.24.2006. GAAP net loss in the second quarter was $(3.8) million or $(0.04) per share, but non-GAAP was $1 million PROFIT!! The company raised its full year revenue expectation to $102 million. "We reached the key milestone of non-GAAP profitability," said Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of Opsware Inc. "During Q2 we also shipped the Opsware System 6 suite, the most important release in our company's history." CFO Sharlene Abrams resigned on 7.12.06. She will continue through Oct. 31 to aid a smooth transition to new CFO David F. Conte. Ms. Abrams is under SEC investigation for handling of options at her prior company, Mercury Interactive.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

Trading near 52-week low.

NataliePace.com's 2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.

RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH

No

OSIP

$63.59

$36.66

$38.17

$20.81

-42.3%

Reported total 2Q revenues of $102.0 million for the three months ended June 30, 2006, an increase of $67.3 million (or 194%) compared to revenues of $34.6 million for the same period last year. Net loss of $319.9 million (or $5.62 per share) included a one-time estimated impairment charge of $319 million related to the goodwill acquired in connection with the November, 2005 acquisition of Eyetech Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Morgan Stanley's Steven Harr has raised the target price to $42 for OSIP. Harr anticipates about $1.3 million in 2006 royalties for OSIP's Diabetes drug, with royalties expanding to about $43.8 million by 2010 (source: AP). Genetic based "cancer pill." 1st and only of its kind. FDA-Approved Tarceva for lung cancer November 2004. Canadian regulators approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European approval granted on 9.21.04. Switzerland approved Tarceva in March 2005. FDA approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic patients on 9.13.05. Submitted new drug application to Japanese FDA on 4.17.06. Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung cancerÉ 2Q06 Earnings: OSIP reported total revenues of $102.0 million for the three months ended June 30, 2006, an increase of $67.3 million (or 194%) compared to revenues of $34.6 million for the same period last year. Revenues increased $164.7 million (or 307%) to $218.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2006 compared to revenue of $53.7 million for the same period last year, primarily due to WW sales of Tarceva and the addition of Macugen revenue. The Company reported a net loss of $319.9 million (or $5.62 per share) for three months ended June 30, 2006, compared with a net loss of $24.5 million a year ago. This included a one-time estimated impairment charge of $319 million related to the acquisition of Eyetech Pharmaceuticals.

RELM wireless

10.70 P/E

Micro Cap

88.73 Million

RISK: HIGH

No

RWC

$7.35

$7.89

$11.70

$1.90

+5%

2Q sales increased 34.1% to approximately $8.6 million from $6.4 million for the same quarter last year. Net income was approximately $1.1 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, compared to net income of approximately $0.5 million, or $0.04 per diluted share a year ago. RELM dropped in early May on heavy institutional investor selling (manic hedge funds), but has added back gains of 20% in under 20 days (price: $5.96 on 6.28.06). Added to the Russell Microcap Index on 6.30.06. RELM Wireless Corporation RWC announced on 5.18.06 that it has received orders from a federal government agency valued at $2.3 million. Of this total, $1.5 million was for digital P25-compliant radio products. The company expects to ship these orders in the second quarter of 2006. According to Feltl & Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM has just 1% share of a domestic market worth $1.9 billion (and the global market is eight times larger), so there is plenty of room for growth. Coverage on MoneyCentral.msn.com on 1.18.06 means it might come up on more investors? radars. In addition to providing communications for national security needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines and chemical plants. The United States Postal Service extended its exclusive contract with RELM Wireless on 7.13.2006. RELM announced on 9.27 that it has received orders from multiple government agencies valued at $5.1 million.

Rio Tinto (ADR)

Based in England

DIVIDENDS!

See issue 48

RISK: LOW

No

RTP

 

$89.60

$192.18

$253.33

$114.90

+114%

Building permits are down worldwide, and there are reports that China is pulling back on it's rapid construction expansion. Additionally, there are currency considerations in Australia, where Rio Tinto does a great deal of its business. Rio Tinto has definitely been the star of the metals sector since we first featured the company, back in August of 2004, but there is no doubt that a lot of the demand for copper and metals was tied to the low interest rates in the US (fueling construction) and the pro-expansion policies in China. With both of those reversing, it seems like the high and the thrill may be nearing their peaks. Since we've got the year-end Santa rally going, since CEO Leigh Clifford has been hitting CNBC and Bloomberg TV screens, and since Rio Tinto does its earnings on a bi-annual basis in December, it doesn't hurt to maximize gains, and wait for the optimum moment to take profits. Look for this company to be taken off this Hot List before the end of the year, at its peakÉ

Sirius

$6.3 Bil Market Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SIRI

$6.00

$3.97

$7.98

$3.60

-33.8%

8. 1.06 2Q 2006 Earnings Report: Revenue tripled to $150 Million from a year ago, and Sirius ended the quarter with 4,678,207 subscribers, the 3rd quarter it has led XM with new subscriber adds. Loss was -$237.8 million, or ($0.17) per share, which is half the net loss of 1Q. Karmazin says there will be a handheld Satellite Radio, called Stiletto, launched by the end of summer (in time for Xmas season). Sirius is on track to finish the year strong with over 6.2 million subscribers, yet the share price is 50% off of its 52-week high. XM Satellite Radio ended 2005 with 5.9 million subscribers. Originally XM projected 9 million by year's end, but the company has cut its subscriber year-end forecast. XM radio is installed in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash flow issues. Could impact XM. Mercedes just agreed to make SIRI standard on SL and CL models for 2007. Nielsen//NetRatings report said the online traffic to Sirius' grew 188%, to 1.9 million in March 2006 from 666,000 unique visitors in the year-ago period. That beats XMSR traffic, which turned in 1.69 million in unique visitors in March. Sirius? Stiletto 100 is being sold for $350/unit. It is a Wi-Fi handheld SR unit that is similar to the Apple iPod, with additional features. Sirius says that "most" music companies have agreed not to sue them. The music industry wants royalties because the device does allow for storing and replaying songs without paying for them. Could this be THE holiday gift for guys?

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

918.7 Mil Market Cap

RISK: HIGH

No

SOHU

$17.52

$21.85

$29.43

$14.25

+25%

Completed a $15 million share buyback program on 8.2.06. Stock buyback program up to $30 million announced on 7.25.06. Beat earnings by posting 19 cents/share ($7.17 million in profit) and $34.1 million in revenue. 2Q revenues were up 35% based on strong World Cup ads, while profit increased 1%. On 6.12.06, Sohu entered into a multi-year advertising agreement with leading online retailer, Joyo.com (owned by Amazon). 2006 revenues were increased by Sohu's exclusive right to 2006 FIFA World Cup online video content, according to Chairman and CEO Dr. Charles Zhang. "China Internet is the most dynamic industry within the world's fastest-growing major economy, in our analysis," according to Michael Tieu, a Brean Murray Carret & Co. analyst. Tieu noted that while China's online advertising market is a rounding error of that of the United States, its ad sales are forecast to grow 40% a year to about $3 billion in 2010. See NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Financial Times ranked Sohu in the Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6 days after our first feature article). Sohu was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. See Sohu CEO in an exclusive interview on the Forbes.com Video Network by typing in Natalie Pace on the seach box at Forbes.com. Could be some bumps in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should ultimately be worth it, with China still growing at over 9% in real GDP per year.

SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)

No

STP

$25.83

--

$45.95

$19.00

--

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy.

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

See vol. 2, iss. 8

No

TREMX

$20.72

$28.96

$30.15

$12.00

+40%

See vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic growth.

Time-Warner

(owns AOL)

No

TWX

$16.76

$18.14

$19.00

$15.70

+8%

See vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace" for a report card that features Time-Warner. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth, which is trading at a value. AOL and Time-Warner have finally figured out how to work together, and Chairman & CEO Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn. After a series of blunders, could it be TWX's time to shine?

U.S. Gold

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

USGL

$5.05

$4.95

$10.30

$.35

flat

See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in NataliePace.com ezine, vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie Pace's Q&A with Rob McEWen on the Forbes.com Video Network. This is a gold exploration company that is being traded off the big boards. If the choice is between this and the craps table, you might have better odds here (and more fun if McEwen strikes gold.) Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time. They are digging to find a new reserve. U.S. Gold closed the private placement of 16,700,000 subscription receipts at a price of US $4.50 for aggregate gross proceeds of US $75.15 million on Feb. 22, 2006. 33.3 million shares outstanding, with a market capitalization of US $239.7 million. U.S. Gold Receives Escrowed Funds $35,665,596 net of commissions. A company spokesperson reported in August that U.S. Gold is close to listing on the TSX (Toronto's small board) and the NYSE's ARCA Stock Exchange. Listings typically have a positive effect on share price. Began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol UXG, on 8.29.06.

Full Disclosure: I own stock in U.S. Gold.

Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)

No

PBW

$16.82

--

$24.08

$14.97

--

See vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This could be a good add to your longterm portfolio. The holdings in this ETF get managed quite well. The problem is that most investors don't know that, and may take your stock up and down on the fluctuations of lesser managed companies and ETFsÉ If you're in it for the long term and can take the volatility, this ETF should pay off between now and 2008.

Sony and Sunoco both had great runs for the list! LifeCell posted over 180% gains before being added to the Cooling Off Stocks list.

Goldcorp

No

GG

$11.25

$23.60

$41.66

$15.01

+110%

Gold dropped to $573/$580 range on 9.15.06 causing losses for most gold mining stocks. Any troubles in the already tight metals market, or investor panic over inflation and terrorism could send gold prices even higher than they currently are (which has been happening all year). This has traditionally been one of the great gold companies, but there is an executive battle brewing between the largest individual shareholder, Rob McEwen, and the current management team. McEwen accuses Goldcorp's directors and management of "tyranny," saying that he opposed the Glamis merger. McEwen is threatening to sue Goldcorp's management and board. According to the AP, Ian Telfer, Goldcorp's current CEO, dismisses McEwen's claims that shareholders are against the deal, saying that he polled 100 of GG's top shareholders and McEwen was the only one opposed to the deal. Telfer expects the acquisition of Glamis Gold to close in 5 weeks. Two things raise concern at this company. 1) No one wins in a war. 2) Rapid growth requires very adept management. Is Ian Telfer up to the task? How adept is he if he has his largest individual shareholder is poised to file papers in court tomorrow (according to a McEwen spokesperson)? We'll keep you posted, but in the meantime, if you've already doubled your money, that's a great profit. Doesn't hurt to look into selling and taking your profits, before things get crazier. We'll keep the company on this hot list for now because the season still feels ripe for an increase in gold prices, which could push the stock up further.

 

Stocks to Watch
Great Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better price), if you believe the news on future potential. There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

9.1.06

Year High

Year Low

Losses since original feature

eBay

No

eBAY

$28.15

$27.47

$47.86

$22.83

-2.4%

See the article, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace," in volume 3, issue 9. eBay has been beaten up by analysts, but still has HUGE growth potential. However, 38.80 P/E may still feel rich to investors for such a large-cap company that is expanding in ways that people can't figure out initially. (eBay owns PayPal and Skype VOIP.) Additionally, Skype's new products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware) are hitting the shelves in time for Christmas and will not likely had a significant chunk to the eBay bottom line until the first quarter of 2007. Wait for fall (Sept./Oct.) - perhaps literally - to see if value is more attractive. Has everyone failed to include the potential upside of Skype? We'll be investigating this and more in upcoming articles. Stay tuned.

Citigroup

No

C

$49.37

$49.49

$50.72

$43.83

flat

Refer to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup's appeal. Rising interest rates and the current M&A mania are positive for Citigroup, but interest rate hikes, combined with high oil prices and the summer doldrums, are tough on the markets. Price: 6.19.06 = $47.78É The Feds terminated their enforcement action against Citigroup on 6.26.06. ($48.10 on 8.14.06) We'll look to add Citigroup to the Hot News List at the end of October, or anytime that the markets have a rough day.

Cooling Off Stocks (that may be in Profit-Taking Range).
Note: We may look to add some of these companies to our Hot News list again, if the price point should become attractive and if the outlook for the company improves. The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a continued decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (The stocks on this chart are expected to go down in price.)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 9.1.06

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

American Airlines

No

AMR

$24.05

$24.20

$29.32

$10.00

flat

Don't buy into the hype that airlines are finally getting profitable; one good quarter does not erase five years of multi-billions in losses and legacy costs, like pension and health plans, that are not reported in earnings reports. Read the article, "$72 Oil Will Sink Airlines," in vol. 3, issue 7. American Airlines has such a strong brand, and so few investors are aware of the depth of their debt, that AMR tends to run up on any good news in the sector. It's not a slam-dunk short or put. 2Q earnings were upbeat in July for a lot of airlines, which beat analyst earnings expectations. 2Q net profit, issued on 7.19, was $291 million for the second quarter of 2006. "We are pleased to have earned a quarterly profit -- just our second in the last 22 quarters without the benefit of special items," said AMR Chairman and CEO Gerard Arpey. "Our performance indicates very clearly that we are on the right track, but also demonstrates -- just as clearly -- that we have more work to do to return our company to financial health." 82.6% load factor in the 2nd quarter. In June, American announced the AAdvance Bag Check(SM) program that allows passengers on cruise ships, at hotels and at convention centers to drop off their luggage for American flights at select remote locations.

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$64.63

$74.86

$86.40

$45.26

+14.6%

Apple missed the SEC deadline for filing its 2Q earnings (ended 7.1.06), due to a SEC investigation into backdated stock option grants. NASDAQ responded by sending a letter reminding Apple that the company was not in compliance with listing requirements. Apple has requested a hearing, which basically buys them time and delays delisting, while they settle the issue with the SEC and file the report. Apple has said that they may have to restate earnings dating back to Sept. 2002, but has not released any other information with regard to the issue, since the request for a hearing with NASDAQ back on 8.11.06. There is a halo effect going on with Apple products and sales, which is being dimmed, at least temporarily, with the SEC investigation. Will Sirius? Satellite Radio handheld device cut into Apple iPod sales this Xmas? FYI: Other companies have fired board members and C-level executives associated with stock options problems, including Verisign and Opsware. This could be VERY significant if the problems are associated with the executive suite, particularly with Jobs himself. With 29/70 Price to Earnings ratio, investors who have counted on forward momentum could be easily frightened off to sell. Google CEO Eric Schmidt just joined the Apple board or directors. Very positive for the long term, although the current SEC bump could present a better buying opportunity in the near future. We?ll keep a close on this between now and November 11, 2006.

General Motors

Yes

GM

$32.35

$33.50

$37.34

$18.33

+3.5%

See the article Faded Blue Chips in vol. 3, issue 8. According to Standard and Poor's Report on Pension Plans (6.06), GM owes -$69.258 billion in pensions and other post employment benefits (OPEB). General Motors' market capitalization is $18.1 billion, and last year the company lost over $10.95 billion. GM announced $15.2 billion reduction in its pension and health care obligations on August 8, 2006, which resulted in a small rally for the stock today. Problem is, GM was almost $70 billion underfunded for its pension and health care obligations, which means it still owes over $46 billion, or 2 1/2 times the value of the company.

Full Disclosure: I own short positions in GM.

ImClone

(makers of Erbitux)

See volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article

Trading near 52 week low.

No

IMCL

$34.48

$27.68

$42.75

$29.51

-19.7%

Forced to pay the IRS $32 million to settle an employment audit (3.16.06). Hired investment bank Lazard LLC to shop the company to suitors and appointed board member Joseph L. Fischer as interim CEO, but, after 8 months, failed to find a buyer at an acceptable price. Is now looking to remain independent and hire a new CEO, but had to add Carl Icahn and two cronies to slate of Board directors seeking approval at the September 22, 2006 Annual Shareholder's Meeting. Results from study are impressive and the EU commission just received a positive opinion from their committee, on 2.23.06, to grant approval in Europe. New panitumumab drug from Amgen is predicted to gain market share of colorectal cancer in about three to four years, though it is not expected to gain approval and product launch before 3Q 2006. Swissmedic, the Swiss agency for therapeutic products, approved Erbitux for head and neck cancer on 12.22.05. IMC-11F8, a new drug that blocks the activation of epidermal growth factor receptor, should have its clinical trial enrolled by the 2nd half of this year. IMClone just won the right to market outside the US and Canada in an arbitration with Merck. Erbitux is one of the most expensive and promising cancer drugs available. Pressure on bringing the price of Erbitux more in line with the other gene-based cancer treatments could be forthcoming, further affecting the bottom line.

KB Home

No

KBH

$59.00

$44.08

$81.99

$37.89

-25.2%

Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. Beazer and KB Home have cut their earning's forecasts twice since July 2006.

LifeCell

Vol. 1, iss. 55

No

LIFC

$27.66

$32.19

$32.60

$15.11

+16%

The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q '05 to reflect the recall. LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not over. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations. $15.5 million in insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months, most recent sales occurred in March ?06. 2Q: Product revenues for the second quarter were $35.7 million, up 60%, compared to $22.3 million reported for the same period in 2005. AlloDerm(R) Regenerative Tissue Matrix, increased 73% to $30.3 million from $17.6 million a year ago. LifeCell has a great product in high demand, but the potential fallout of the unscreened human tissue could be more than most $688 million companies can take.

Toll Brothers

No

TOL

$37.82

$28.30

$46.39

$22.22

-26%

Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. Beazer and KB Home have cut their earning's forecasts twice since July 2006.

Verisign,

Cool List eff. 8.1.06

No

VRSN

$18.00

$20.64

$36.09

$17.02

+14.6%

SEC is reportedly investigating for handling of stock options (possible back dating). Verisign admitted that they are doing an audit into the past, which may affect their earnings and possible restatement of earnings. On Aug. 3, Verisign announced the resignation of two of the three board members who served on its compensation committee, Len J. Lauer and Gregory L. Reyes. Selling Jamba ring tones to News Corp. for $188 million, two years after buying it for $273 million, per Associated Press.

Yahoo

Vol. 2, iss. 10

No

YHOO

$33.84

$24.88

$43.66

$24.91

-26.5%

Yahoo is the #1 web site, with more traffic, page views and time online than MSN or Google. The stock has been beaten up, and is trading near a 52-week low. The reason we aren't expecting a turnaround at this time is that the investment arm of Yahoo had been a contributing revenue source for Yahoo earlier in the year, and consistently had calls on the stock to perform better. With worse performance, this could have a negative impact. Additionally, there are new kids on the block who are making alliances and strong gains, including MySpace/Google, Apple/Google and the re-emergence of AOL as a giveaway. Consensus insider selling going on since May to the tune of $43 Million. AND Yahoo just announced, on 9.19.06, that ad sales were slowing and could impact 3Q earnings. OUCH. Earnings should be released around 10.18.06. We'll keep you posted, but all signs are toward more cooling of Yahoo stock.

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a media and information center. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Women's Investment Network, LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Oprah's First Women's Conference in Boston!

Oprah's First Women's Conference in Boston!

Working Mother's Top 100 Companies for Mothers List!

Caption: Oprah and XM Satellite Radio CEO Hugh Panero Ringing the opening bell at NASDAQ
Photo Credit: Rob Tannenbaum, NASDAQ

Saturday, October 7th, 2006
8:00AM through 7:00PM. Oprah's O! You Conference, Boston, MA.

Join O! editor-at-large Gayle King, keynote speaker Suze Orman and other experts for a day of dreaming big, getting fit (financially, emotionally and physically) and fun! $100 per person.

In addition to being the Queen of daytime television, Oprah has now crowned her position as the top earner at XM Satellite Radio. The much- anticipated "Oprah & Friends" radio channel has attracted thirteen new, high- profile advertisers for XM, including Acuvue, Crown Publishing, Dove, GE, Iams, JC Penney, Jenny Craig, SlimFast, Rozerum, Snapple, Splenda, Target, and Warners TrueFit. "In terms of ad sales, this is XM's most successful channel launch ever," according to D. Scott Karnedy, senior vice president, sales and marketing solutions, XM Satellite Radio.

Wednesday, October 18th, 2006
NYC Gala! Working Mother: Top 100 Companies

Join Working Mother for a 3-day Work Life Congress, beginning on Monday, October 16th, which culminates in their wonderful GALA Awards Dinner honoring the 100 Best Companies for Working Mothers. Register Now. Space is limited for this VERY popular event.

Celebrate the 21st birthday of the competition that changed the culture of American business. According to Working Mother's website, "Programs we could only imagine a few years agoÑ16 months of maternity leave, free backup care, phase-back programs, $10,000 in adoption reimbursementÑare now a reality at many of our Working Mother 100 Best Companies. In selecting this year's winners, we gave special weight to leave policies, because it's critical for a mother to be able to stay home as long as possible with her newborn without suffering professionally." These family-friendly employers of choice for working mothers are measured and scored by the following seven areas: workforce profile, compensation, child care, flexibility, time off and leaves, family-friendly programs and company culture.

Check the Calendar section of NataliePace.com frequently for a listing of Important Events like these, including Chats, Galas, Conferences and more. Learn how to maximize your NataliePace.com subscription.


VISION: To build a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars, radio, television and print partners. GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news, information and education, presented in an entertaining format, across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
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