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ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.3 Issue 10 October 1st, 2006
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"The unprecedented
economic development and prosperity the world has experienced
since the industrial revolution has carried a stiff price in
terms of pollution, environmental degradation and the decreasing
supply of fossil fuels. This affects everybody. In light of
these significant challenges, developing clean and affordable
renewable energy resources has become a global imperative."
Dr. Zhengrong Shi,
Suntech Power Holding's Chairman and CEO.
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- Solar Powers Whole Foods,
But Not the Whole World.
Why Investing in the Most Abundant Energy in the World
- the Sun - is Trickier Than You Think. By Natalie Pace.
- From Football Coach to CEO: Exclusive Q&A with Joe Moglia, CEO, TD AMERITRADE, on How Online Discount Brokerages Serve, Educate and Empower the Independent Investor. By Natalie Pace.
- Rollover IRAs and Discount Brokerages Make Leaving
Your Job Easy. By Maya Patel.
- Five Tips On Making The Most
Of Your 401(K). By Steve Patterson, Vice President, Schwab Corporate and Retirement Services.
- Look Before You Leave:
Don't Be Misled By Early Retirement Investment Pitches
That Promise Too Much. Investor Alert by the NASD.
- The Joy of Stocks, as Told
by Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler.
- Recipe for Successful Investing:
Cook Up Serious Profits With the Right Ingredients,
Starting With Your Heart. By Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com.
- A View From a Broad. Excerpt from the book More Than 85 Broads. By Janet Hanson, founder of 85 Broads, a Global Women's Network.
- How to Ask for a Raise and
Get It. By Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
- International Investing:
5 Tips to Make Sure You Build an Ark Instead of the
Titanic to Navigate the Globe. By Natalie Pace.
- Dealing with Climate Change, and Taking Advantage
of Sunny Days. By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.
- Where Are the Back To School
Stock Sales? By Natalie
Pace. Includes Our Popular Hot News on Cool Stocks List,
Featuring 23 GREAT Companies That are Racking Up Returns.
- Oprah's First Women's Conference
in Boston! Working Mother's Top 100 Companies for Mothers List!
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Solar Powers Whole Foods, But Not the Whole World.
by Natalie
Pace.
Why
Investing in the Most Abundant Energy in the World - the Sun -
is Trickier Than You Think.
Includes
a Solar
Report Card.
"The
unprecedented economic development and prosperity the world has
experienced since the industrial revolution has carried a stiff
price in terms of pollution, environmental degradation and the
decreasing supply of fossil fuels. This affects everybody. In
light of these significant challenges, developing clean and affordable
renewable energy resources has become a global imperative."
-- Dr.
Zhengrong Shi, Suntech Power Holding's Chairman and CEO
The sun is
the world's most abundant energy source, so why isn't it at least
heating our water heaters worldwide? The truth is startling. Even
including sunshine states like California, which experiences over
300 days of solar rays, the total amount of renewable energy consumed
in the U.S. amounted to less than 6% in 2005. ("Renewable
energy" includes wind, solar and other "green"
energy.) To put the current state of solar energy into perspective
(and to advise you of the risk of investing blindly in the sector),
people have been touting solar energy since the 1960s (yes, it
was peace, love AND solar energy). Almost fifty years after our
hairy ancestors hosted "bed-in's" to promote renewable
energy, I still have to be a sleuth to find a solar energy panel
at Home Depot. Solar energy may be in our hearts and minds, but
it is not taking up a lot of shelf space in our stores.
U.S.
Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2005

source: Department
of Energy
Currently, there are just a few pioneering corporations in the U.S. who are strongly committed to using green energy. Whole Foods Market, the World Bank Group, the Advanced Micro Devices Austin, TX Facilities and the Tower Companies all run on 100% green power usage (source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). Click for a list of the Top 25 Partners in the Green
Power Partnership. If you're interested in checking
up on the most fuel-efficient cars (hint: the Prius is ranked
second), click for a Green Vehicle Guide.
Last December (vol. 2, iss. 12), I featured another solar energy article and report card, and warned investors that, even though it was hard to make a case for solar energy investments this early in the game, SunPower was probably a better pick than Evergreen Solar. (Evergreen was getting a lot of media attention for installing panels on government buildings in Washington D.C. and was added to the Russell 2000(R) and Russell 3000(R) Indices in June of 2005.) That turned out to be a good call because since that vol. 2, iss. 12 publication, Evergreen Solar's share price has dropped -32.6%, while SunPower is up 6.7%.
"Sign
petitions, lobby for tax incentives and march to get a few brochures
put into the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world! In terms of
the stock, however, it may be wiser to be a waiter than a buyer.
We'll keep on eye on Sun Power, and look to add it to our Hot
News column if/when the price takes a dip and become more attractive."
Natalie Pace, from "Sun Power's Billion Dollar IPO" (vol. 2, iss. 12). Click to read the full article.
Buy
or Continue to Wait?
Why
were we so cautious in a sector with so much buzz? Because it
is difficult to predict a clear winner when innovation is occurring
rapidly in a sector. There tend to be a lot more companies that
fail than succeed, and when you have massive fallout of venture
capital, the sinking tide can ground most companies. Picture the
Internet bust of 2000, or the personal computer bust of the early
80s, or the assembly line bust at the turn of the century. As
renowned economist Joseph Schumpeter wrote in his book, Capitalism,
Socialism and Democracy, a good time to invest in new technology
tends to be after the initial crash (which is one reason
why we are still bullish on IT tech companies).
Most of the
solar energy companies listed on the Solar
Stock Report Card are still cash negative. Additionally,
the primary source material, silicon, is short in demand and getting
more expensive, and growth potential is severely constrained by
that shortage at least until the second half of 2007. (Click to
review the Stock
Report Card, which lines up the companies by price,
sales, P/E and more.)
Green CEOs
(as in less experienced) will shine and soar and crash and burn
by expanding too fast, over-committing to research and development,
missing projections due to silicon shortages, neglecting to secure
capital when they are in good shape, and scrambling to obtain
high-cost capital when the company is on the ropes. Almost everything
spooky about NASDAQ 1999 is creepy about Solar Energy today, with
the exception of one company with real earnings and the strongest
position with regard to silicon supply. As might be expected,
the only two solar energy companies listed on the Stock Report
Card that boast positive earnings - SunTech and SunPower -- have
government and business ties that not only help to stabilize the
genius scientist founders, but also provide them with the necessary
government subsidies. See below for more information on which
of these two well-positioned solar companies shines brighter..
Suntech
"energizing a green, global future"
You
would have done just fine investing in Microsoft in the early
80s, just as an investment in Google in 2004 at the IPO was a
great idea, even though Internet revenue was still a young industry.
Suntech, a Chinese-based company, may serve that role for the
solar energy sector. Suntech has the lowest price to earnings
ratio, is experiencing 200%+ growth, racks up more sales than
the combined strength of its competitors, boasts one of the lowest
debt/equity ratios and has strong government and business support
globally - from China, to Australia, to Japan and the U.S.
Suntech's
Chairman and CEO, Dr. Zhengrong Shi, was asked to join the International
Advisory Committee of the New York Stock Exchange on August
10, 2006. In March of 2004, Premier Jiabao Wen, the 3rd
most powerful man in the Chinese government, visited Suntech,
addressed Suntech staff and praised the company, ensuring government
support at the policy level for what Wen called the "future
of China's renewable energy industry." Additionally, Suntech's
Board of Directors seats such heavyweight business leaders as
Mr. Chengyu Fu, Chairman and CEO of CNOOC Limited, and president
of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, a PRC state-owned
enterprise.
How does all
that muscle and might win in the business world? It corners the
market for silicon, the key element of the photovoltaic universe.
According to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, ''During
this period of tight silicon supply, our willingness to pay higher
prices for silicon on the spot market means we have been able
to increase our market share and satisfy more customers, while
simultaneously increasing our EPS.''
Polysilicon
manufacturer MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. backed out of a deal
to supply silicon to Evergreen Solar Inc. in March, causing a
drop in Evergreen's share price and a substantial hit to Evergreen's
ability to produce panels on schedule. (Evergreen has since inked
silicon from another deal, but the flow from that deal won't be
tapped in full until 2007.) On the other hand, Suntech's required
silicon supply for planned production in 2007 has been fully secured
through long-term supply contracts with MEMC, OEM exchange programs
and strategic alliances with key suppliers. SunPower has moved
to secure silicon ingots through a joint venture with Korean entrepreneur
Woongjin Coway, but the manufacturing facilities aren't expected
to be operational until the second half of 2007, according to
a company press release issued on September 29, 2006. The air
is definitely perfumed with the success of Suntech in this critical
area of silicon supply, at least for the coming three quarters.
So what
are the risks of investing in Suntech right now? Solar technology
companies cannot yet afford to sustain themselves on their own.
According to Suntech's SEC IPO registration statement last December,
if government subsidies dry up, the business could shrivel to
nothing. "Reduction or elimination of these government
subsidies and economic incentives because of policy changes, fiscal
tightening or other reasons may result in the diminished competitiveness
of solar energy, and materially and adversely affect the growth
of these markets and our revenues." You can't get a better
insurance policy than support from the Premier of China, however.
The
Culture at Suntech
Like
Google, Suntech is striving to be pro-employee, embracing "sincerity,
honesty and equality" as their company values. The company
website reads, "At Suntech, we believe that good companies
are built with good people. We strive to foster a spirit of innovation,
cooperation, teamwork, and speed through incorporating our employees
into our family and treating them with concern and compassion."
These claims have not been verified firsthand by my staff, but
the ethos, at minimum, indicates a corporate commitment to engaging
their employees. Happy people build better products cheaper and
faster.
SunPower
So
what about SunPower? Last year, SunPower was the star of the Department
of Energy's Solar Decathlon, supplying the solar panels of choice
for the 1st place winning team from the University
of Colorado and the Virginia Tech team, which won first place
in the Architecture and Dwelling Contest. Twenty teams have been
selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for the 2007 Solar
Decathlon to compete in a solar competition to design,
build, and operate the most attractive and energy-efficient solar-powered
home. While SunPower was the hands-down winner in 2005, don't
be surprised if SunTech gives the company a run for the glory
in 2007.
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Photo
Credit: Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon
The Virginia Tech team, which won first place in the Architecture
and Dwelling Contest of the DOE's Solar Decathlon, placed
a high priority on architectural design and attractive ways
to integrate solar power into a home. "We were first drawn
to SunPower solar panels due to their unique, all-black design,"
explained Bob Schubert, faculty advisor to the Virginia Tech
team. "The opportunity to take advantage of SunPower's solar
panels' great aesthetics and high power output [gave] us an
edge in the Solar Decathlon, which considers energy production,
consumption and overall building design." |
The Virginia
Tech team, which won first place in the Architecture and Dwelling
Contest of the DOE's Solar Decathlon, placed a high priority on
architectural design and attractive ways to integrate solar power
into a home. "We were first drawn to SunPower solar panels due
to their unique, all-black design," explained Bob Schubert, faculty
advisor to the Virginia Tech team. "The opportunity to take advantage
of SunPower's solar panels' great aesthetics and high power output
[gave] us an edge in the Solar Decathlon, which considers energy
production, consumption and overall building design."
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Photo
Credit: Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon
The University of Colorado's energy-efficient, solar-powered
house won first place in the Solar Decathlon on Friday, Oct.
14, 2005. "We evaluated more than 100 solar panels to optimize
our solar power generation and defend our Solar Decathlon
championship title," said Jeff Lyng, student project manager
for the University of Colorado. "We were pleased to find that
the best panels available were also the most beautifully designed
to blend into our building." This award-winning house also
utilized the SunPower solar panels. |
The University of Colorado's energy-efficient, solar-powered house won first place in the Solar Decathlon on Friday, Oct. 14, 2005. "We evaluated more than 100 solar panels to optimize our solar power generation and defend our Solar Decathlon championship title," said Jeff Lyng, student project manager for the University of Colorado. "We were pleased to find that the best panels available were also the most beautifully designed to blend into our building." This award-winning house also utilized the SunPower solar panels.
Like Suntech,
SunPower has board members with strong credentials. Pat Wood,
III is the immediate past chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission (FERC), the independent regulator of the nation's interstate
pipeline and wholesale electric power industries. Betsy Atkins
was a presidential appointee to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
and is a current member of the Nasdaq nominating committee and
Council on Foreign Relations. The CFO is from the Phillipines
(where Sun Power's main manufacturing facility is located). T.J.
Rodgers, the Chairman of SunPower's Board of Directors, is founder,
president, CEO, and a director of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation.
It is safe to assume that these heavyweights can do a world of "entitlements" good for SunPower here in the U.S. However, China's commitment to solar energy does appear to exceed that of the U.S. in the near-term (given the current balance of power). I haven't seen or heard of anyone from the Bush Administration visiting the SunPower corporate offices promising government support.
Suntech
(NYSE: STP) has been added to the Hot News on Cool Stocks list
this month.
Full Disclosure:
Natalie Pace does not own positions in any company mentioned in
this article.
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
are a media and information center. This article is intended to
educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals
and strategies.
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From Football Coach to CEO: Exclusive Q&A with Joe Moglia, CEO, TD AMERITRADE.
by Natalie Pace.
...on
How Online Discount Brokerages Serve, Educate and Empower the
Independent Investor.
In
just five years under CEO Joseph Moglia's game plan, TD AMERITRADE
swallowed up Datek, married T.D. Waterhouse, and shot past its
other online rivals, with some $265.6 billion in client assets.
Joe joined me in the Forbes.com
Video Network studios in June to talk about his company
and the industry. Click to view the Video Network interview.
Hi Joe,
nice to see you again.
Hi Natalie,
good to see you, too.
Impressive growth since you took the helm in March of 2001 and not an easy environment to do it in. Since joining TD Ameritrade as CEO, you took it from $700 million to-- the highest was $12 billion market cap. How did you do that?
We recognize
that we're in business to be able to take care of our clients.
As a publicly traded company, we need to provide shareholders
with reasonable return. We are only going to deliver to our shareholders
and our business objectives through our employees or our associates.
Everything we do is centered around clients, shareholders and
our associates.
It's been
a tough environment. Is trading volume anywhere near what it was
in heydays of 2000?
It's certainly
not at all on a per capita basis. But because there's been significant
consolidation, as you pointed out, within the industry in general,
firms are having good numbers relative to where they may have
been previously. I think when you take a look at what goes in
with the individual investor, they're usually a lagging indicator
as far as on what takes place in the market place. As the markets
become euphoric, they do more trades, and they open up more accounts.
As the opposite starts to happen, and lately the market's been
under some pressure, if that continues for a while, you'll see
them opening fewer accounts and moving more to the sidelines.
And you
give more away to attract them! I mean you're giving away $500,
free trades. I'm waiting for a trip to Tahiti!
We only give
away trips to Tahiti to our top 1 million clients.
I'm waiting
for that one! But with these margins, that's got to really cut
into your profits. Doesn't that weigh heavy on operating margins?
We went 8
quarters in a row with 50%+ pre-tax margins. Our company's advantage
is our operating leverage and our ability to scale. The power
of that leverage is pretty significant. When we make a decision
to entice a client to come in to our place, that's just to get
them in the door. Whether or not they stay is going to be a function
of what experience they actually have when they get here. As I
mentioned earlier, the #1 priority to us, the reason why we're
in business, is to take care of our clients.
Is that
why TD Waterhouse was so attractive to you, to add Brick and Mortar?
There are
a couple of reasons. That would be one of the reasons. First of
all, they also had an active trader base. So you could take that
entire active trader base, eliminate most of those costs, put
them on our backbone and that drops to our pre-tax line. That
was the first reason. But the second reason is we are getting
more involved with the long-term investor space and independent
advisor space. They were already involved with that.
Are you
taking on Merrill? Are you going to start competing with the more
traditional brokerage house?
When you think
of the full commission of firms in this country, the typical financial
consultant probably covers 400-500 accounts. They get paid on
the ones that have the greatest assets. They realistically can't
get to the majority of their client base, which is the mass affluent
in this country. Now there are 37 million households that have
between $100,000 and a million dollars in investable assets. That's
an aggregate market of $15-16 trillion dollars. We think by using
our sales force, and our branches, as well as our advantages with
regard to technology, we can do a great job of servicing and taking
care of the mass affluent client in the United States. In doing
so, we'll be competing in that space with more of the full commission
firms. But I would ask you to keep in mind that the typical full
commission firm is not necessarily focused on that client. Their
retail business in the U.S. is more of a high net-worth business.
Well you're
not going to able to reach all those people one by one. So how
does the online broker give the average American what they need
to manage their own investments?
Today we can
provide the client with a full spectrum of products and services.
So if you, as an individual, want a simple, entirely electronic,
online experience, we can give you that. If you're interested
in a relationship with a branch, we can give you that. If you
want to give your money to someone else to manage, we can do that
for you. If you're an active trader, we can take care of you;
if you're a long-term investor we can take care of you.
And
we should remind everyone that you did write one of the best investing
101 books out there. It's called Coach
Yourself to Success: Winning the Investment Game.
You spell it all out in your book, so I'm sure that's very helpful
to the individual investor.
One of the
best things we can do is help educate the individual investor
so they understand what some of the better investment vehicles,
potentially, there are out there for them.
We've been
talking with Joe Moglia, the Chief Executive Officer of Ameritrade.
And he's certainly leading the offensive plays in M&As on
Wall Street. I'm Natalie Pace for i-Sophia at the Forbes.com Video
Network, bringing you recipes for the rich life™.
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Rollover
IRAs and Discount Brokerages Make Leaving Your Job Easy.
by Maya
Patel.
It used
to be easier to launch a satellite than it was to wrestle your
retirement plan from an old employer, but easy-to-use online FREE
rollover IRAs have changed all that. In fact, these days, you
may even be able to rollover an existing employer's 401 (k) into
your own IRA, if you wish to have greater control of the investments
in your retirement planÉ
It is important
to be long-term greedy with 401(k) money. Choices you make today
impact your future financial security. Thus, when changing jobs,
carefully consider what you do with your 401(k) money. The options
are to leave the money in your former employer's plan, roll the
money to your new employer's retirement plan, take a cash distribution
or move the money to a Rollover IRA. Three factors to consider
when weighing your options are: determine the present and future
tax consequences of each option; reflect on the option that best
complements your other retirement accounts; evaluate how much
control you will have over your money with each option.
Leaving
your 401(k)
By
leaving your 401(k) money in your former employer's plan, it continues
to grow tax deferred and maintains the ability to roll over later.
You also avoid income taxes, penalties and a 20% government withholding
of withdrawals that will likely occur if you choose to cash out.
There are
drawbacks. Investment choices are limited to the employer's plan.
Most employers pre-select the mutual funds available in their
401(k) plans. This relieves you from screening numerous funds,
but also limits your investment selection. The employer's plan
may further hinder flexibility by limiting withdrawals and exchanges
between investments. Some employers require a rollover
if your 401(k) is below a specified amount at the time of your
departure.
Taking
It To the New Job
If
you roll over 401(k) money to the new employer's retirement savings
plan, you face the same issues as leaving it with the former employer.
However, there are two additional benefits. Tracking your retirement
assets becomes easier and you may be able to borrow against your
401(k).
Cashing
Out
The
most tempting option is to take a cash distribution. However,
the costs outweigh the benefits. You are able to use your money
immediately, but incur losses due to the 20% mandatory withholding
and 10% early withdrawal penalty. The intangible losses are the
flexibility to move into a qualified plan or IRA after 60 days
and the money is no longer in tax-deferred status.
Rollovers
The
final option is a Rollover IRA. A rollover is a tax-free movement
of cash or other assets from one retirement plan to another. A
Rollover IRA provides flexibility by allowing you to invest money
however you deem appropriate and by providing you with control
to invest and access your money without going through a 401(k)
provider. The IRA assets can be rolled back into a 401(k) or converted
to a Roth IRA at a later date.
There are
also drawbacks to this option. You cannot borrow against the assets
and there is no special distribution alternative, such as net
unrealized appreciation (NUA) treatment for distributions of company
stock or forward averaging.
Many of the discount brokerage houses offer Rollover IRA plans. Schwab, E*Trade, and TD AMERITRADE offer these services on their website.
E*Trade offers a Rollover IRA account and instructions for opening one can be found on their website. Their online information is very extensive, and a financial service representative is available to assist you by phone at 1-800-ETRADE-1 (1-800-387-2331). 13 states also have E*Trade offices, where you can get help in person.
The form to open a rollover account is most easily found by typing "401K" in the search box. E*Trade provides a comprehensive section on frequently asked questions about Rollover IRA Accounts. The site provides an informative outline of their Rollover IRA plan by listing account minimum and maximum guidelines, stock trading commissions, account features and eligibility requirements. There is widespread information on the website that is accessed most easily by using key words in the search box.
Charles
Schwab
offers two options to help you through the rollover process -
do-it-yourself online or in-person with assistance. Schwab will
provide a retirement specialist to explain your rollover choices.
You can begin the process of opening a Schwab Rollover IRA account
over the phone, and set up an appointment with an investment consultant.
Simply call: 866-855-9102, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The
other option is to apply online.
Schwab also
provides a range of investment choices. To help you explore equity
opportunities, they provide Schwab Equity Ratings, multiple research
perspectives, screening and monitoring tools, portfolio alerts
via email and extended hours trading. Schwab Equity Ratings is
their approach to evaluating stocks that may be right for you.
To help you easily choose mutual funds, Schwab provides a list
of pre-screened, no-load, no-transaction-fee funds. In addition,
Schwab offers fixed income investment options.
Schwab also provides research and guidance on their website. They display links to articles germane to the various investment products and services. The website is user friendly and easy to navigate.
TD
AMERITRADE offers a Rollover IRA that personalizes your portfolio based upon your individual needs, and enables you to apply easily online, in one page. Their Amerivest center (located under the Planning and Retirement link), helps you determine your risk tolerance, diversify your assets, choose Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), monitor your portfolio's performance and easily make changes when needed. Once your account is set, the site provides extensive information on portfolio investing, mutual funds and ETFs. It also makes it easy to trade by outlining your investment choices, providing analysis tools and excellent execution.
TD AMERITRADE
has impressive products to offer now that they have merged with
TD Waterhouse, which had a strong Rollover IRA department and
brick-and-mortar offices. There are many TD AMERITRADE branches
nationwide, where investors can speak with investment professionals
one on one. The online articles provide you with a background
for commonly asked retirement questions. The tools and calculators
help you actively plan your retirement. One of the unique features
of TD AMERITRADE's Rollover IRA is that there are online seminars
to help you better understand your options. The site also offers
a glossary of terms to make it a truly "do-it-yourself"
401(k).
When you are
faced with an unexpected decision of what to do with the money
in your former company's 401(k), rest assured there are options.
The Rollover IRA account is one option, and it is offered by the
discount brokerage houses. They provide you with flexibility and
control over your money. They have made the rollover process easy
by providing online applications and access to rollover specialists.
The accounts are effective because they allow you to invest beyond
the scope of the limits of your previous employer's 401(k) plan,
while providing you with support and guidance. Now if securing
a raise were so simple!
Maya Patel
is an associate in the Debt Capital Markets Group at Harris Nesbitt
Corp. She focuses on the origination, structuring and
execution of high yield and investment grade public and private
debt financings, as well as private equity transactions. Previously,
she was an analyst in the Leverage Finance Group at Citigroup
Global Markets. Email: maya.patel@harrisnesbitt.com
Important
Disclaimer: I-Sophia.com does not act or operate like a broker.
We are a media and information center. This article is intended
to provide current news, and, thus, to give investors a competitive
edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies
mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations
and/or endorsements. ALWAYS do your research and/or consult an
experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any stock.
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Five
Tips On Making The Most Of Your 401(K).
by Steve Patterson, Vice President, Schwab Corporate and Retirement Services.
The president's recent signing of the Pension Protection Act has consumers asking questions about how the new law will affect their 401(k) and other retirement plans.
Many of the provisions of the new law focus on how companies
can act to help their employees save more for retirement, including
the ability to automatically enroll employees into a 401(k)
plan unless they actively choose not to participate. However,
the law also features a number of important changes that affect
how employees can take more control of their financial futures
through their companies' plans.
Here are five tips for how participants in employer-sponsored plans can make the most of their 401(k) plans:
*Get
more advice. The Pension Protection Act expands the ways in which employees can receive specific advice on their 401(k) plans, including how and where to invest. Employees should check with their benefits departments to learn more about their advice options or to request the addition of advice services.
*Save
more and catch up. Thanks to the new law, several 401(k) features that were set to expire at the end of 2010 have become permanent, including the $15,000 annual contribution limit -- which will continue to increase each year -- and the additional $5,000 "catch-up" contribution for those over age 50. Employees who haven't increased their contribution amounts lately should act now.
*Ask
about the Roth. In addition to the contribution limits, the Roth 401(k) also was set to expire at the end of 2010. In a Roth 401(k), payroll deductions are made on an after-tax basis, which means employees pay taxes on their contributions before they go into their plans. When employees finally do withdraw money, all their contributions and investment earnings are tax-free, provided specific withdrawal qualifications are met -- so the Roth 401(k) is a good choice for those who think they will be in a higher tax bracket when they retire. Now that the Roth 401(k) has been made permanent, employees should ask their HR departments to consider offering both a traditional and a Roth 401(k) option.
*Don't stock up on stock. The new law gives employees more freedom to decide whether or not to hold publicly traded company stock in their 401(k) plans. Many plans now must offer employees at least three investment options besides employer stock, and employees can, at any time, choose to sell company stock purchased with their own elective contributions. After three years of employment, they can trade company stock received through employer contributions. Employees who hold company stock bought with contributions made prior to Jan. 1, 2007 will be allowed to divest those shares over three years. This new provision should cause consumers to examine their current portfolios to make sure they're not overly invested in company stock, or in a specific industry or asset class. Target or lifestyle funds can be an excellent option for those who don't have time to actively manage a portfolio but want to make a single choice that invests in a diversified portfolio.
*Rollover inherited assets. Under the new law, beginning in 2007, individuals who inherit 401(k) assets from parents, domestic partners or others can roll over those assets to IRAs without paying taxes. Previously, this benefit was available only to individuals who inherited 401(k) assets from their spouses. Employees should take advantage of this change, and take a moment to double-check their own beneficiaries.
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Look Before You Leave:
Don't Be Misled By Early Retirement Investment Pitches That Promise Too Much.
Investor Alert by the NASD.
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| Credit:
www.mazell.com Film and Video Production Advertising Photography
562-866-7662 |
September
14, 2006
Early
retirement is an alluring prospect. When faced with a pitch that
promises that you can cash in your company retirement savings
in your 50s, reinvest the money, and live comfortably off the
proceeds for the rest of your life, many simply can't say no.
But usually they should. NASD is issuing this Investor Alert because
we are aware of instances in which employees who had built up
sizeable retirement savings have been misled, and financially
harmed by flawed, even fraudulent, early-retirement investment
schemes.
Misleading
Statements and Excessive Withdrawals
A recent NASD
enforcement action identified one such scheme. Employees of
a major corporation attended free seminars where a broker pitched
a strategy that recommended investors take one or more of the
following actions:
- Retire
earlier than they might otherwise have done
- Opt out
of the company's retirement plan (opting out typically required
the employee to cash out of his or her 401(k) plan or take a
lump-sum payment for the cash value of his or her pension)
- Open a
traditional Individual Retirement Account at the broker's firm
- Invest in variable annuities, Class B and C mutual fund shares, and exchange-traded fund shares, which were substantially more risky than the fixed benefit pension they had given up
During the
seminars, these investments were represented as being able to
generate aggressive annual returns as high as 18 percent. Little
mention was made of the risks associated with such an aggressive
growth scenario, such as the fact that the value of the investments
would fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The pitch also
failed to adequately explain that the overall return to customers
on their investments would be reduced by various fees and expenses
associated with the purchase and ongoing administration of the
investments.
Furthermore,
the strategy recommended annual withdrawal amounts generally starting
at 7.5 percent to 9 percent of the customer's initial investment,
with increases at five-year intervals. While materials given to
individual customers in one-on-one meetings portrayed these rates
as being sustainable for more than 30 years, they assumed returns
of 11 to 14 percent. The reality is that these rates proved unrealistic
and were not achievable. Customers who followed the broker's program
could not maintain the recommended withdrawal amounts without
depleting their retirement accounts to levels that threatened
their retirement security. By the time many of the customers realized
this, they had lost a significant portion of their retirement
nest egg. Thirty-three customers who invested more than $22 million
will be paid restitution of more than $13.8 million by the broker's
firm.
Finally, the
broker in this case misrepresented his own qualifications as a
Certified Public Accountant (his CPA certification had long-since
become inactive), overstating his ability to handle the complicated
tax planning associated with taking early withdrawals from a qualified
retirement plan.
What
the IRS Says About Early Withdrawals from Your Retirement Plan
In
addition to the income tax you pay on most retirement plan withdrawals,
Section 72(t) of the Internal Revenue Code imposes an additional
tax of 10 percent on distributions from qualified retirement plans,
including traditional IRAs made before age 59 1/2. The IRS does,
however, allow you to avoid this 10 percent penalty if the distributions
from your retirement plan "are part of a series of substantially
equal periodic payments." These payments must last for five
years or until you reach age 59 1/2, whichever is longer,
and IRS rules govern how you calculate the amount of the payments.
For more information on Section 72(t) and methods for calculating
payments, see the IRS's FAQs
regarding Revenue Ruling 2002-62.
Be
Skeptical of Early Retirement Investment Claims
Because
the allure of a leisurely retirement can be quite tempting, and
those who promote early retirement schemes can be extremely persuasive,
it's critical that you think carefully before you act. Taking
early retirement presents risks, and only makes sense if you have
saved enough to begin with, make smart investment choices during
your retirement years, and withdraw money at a rate that does
not deplete your savings too early. While there is no perfect
consensus on what this withdrawal rate should be, the uncertainty
of return, market fluctuations and increased life expectancies
among other factors argue for being conservative with your withdrawals,
especially during the first years of retirement. While NASD can
make no recommendation, many experts recommend withdrawal rates
between 3-5% per yearÑconsiderably less than the 7-9% withdrawal
rates NASD saw being recommended in the scheme above.
Be especially
skeptical if you hear comments such as the following:
- Everyone
can retire early! The reality is that not everyone has
the resources to do so. Early retirement is not feasible for
many people and is particularly risky for workers who haven't
saved enough for an extended retirement and who have limited
opportunities for other employment.
- You
can make as much in retirement as you can by continuing to work!
Promises like this usually hinge on unrealistically high returns
on investments and unsustainably large yearly withdrawals.
- You
can expect returns of 12% or more! First of all, no one
can predict what an investment will do from one year to the
nextÑand even if an investment performed well in the past, this
is no guarantee it will do so in the future. Second, any return
over 10.4% exceeds the historical long-term returns for the
stock market (assuming all dividends were reinvested rather
than spent), and greatly exceeds long-term returns for less
risky investments such as bonds, for which the average annual
return over the long term is less than 6%. Finally, the stock
market is inherently volatile - it goes up, and it goes down.
Over the past 80 years, there have been many short term periods
that produced returns well below the historical average of 10.4%.
- You
can withdraw 9% or more and never run out of money! Unless
you have substantial retirement assets, withdrawing this amount
can lead to rapid depletion of your principal, and even smaller
withdrawal amounts may cause you to outlive your retirement
assets.
Tips
to Avoid Being Taken In
Don't let the
promise of easy money lure you into an early retirement you weren't
otherwise considering. Before you quit your day job (or night
job) and invest your retirement savings, follow these tips:
- Be skeptical
of "free lunch" training sessions and other seminars that promote
early retirement strategies, even if those events take place
at the workplace. Don't assume that your employer is behind
the event.
- Be wary
of early retirement pitches that invoke exceptions to IRS Section
72(t) as a "little-known loophole" that allows you to retire
early. There's a lot more to a successful early retirement than
avoiding a 10% tax penalty.
- Think hard before trading the relative certainty of a company pension?which may offer steady and predictable payments for as long as you live?for the uncertainty of investments such as variable annuities and mutual funds whose values fluctuate, creating an unpredictable income stream and putting your nest egg at risk.
- Many employers
allow former employees to leave their 401(k) assets in the company's
plan. If that's a choice you have, you may find that it's the
safest and least costly option. For more information on how
to make smart decisions concerning your retirement nest egg,
please see Smart
401(k) Investing.
- Before quitting and cashing in a 401(k), do a little math. Remember that even if you avoid the 10 percent early withdrawal tax penalty, you won't be able to spend every penny. Instead, you will have to pay ordinary income taxes on your withdrawals. Be sure to ask a tax professional about any other potential tax consequences of your decision.
- You may
also wish to consult an attorney about any other unintended
consequences, especially if you are in debt or owe child support
or alimony. Depending on the laws in your state, cashing out
of your retirement plan may mean that your creditors can collect
against that payment you receiveÑeven if you're rolling the
assets to a traditional IRA.
- If the
strategy involves mutual fund investing, keep in mind that Class
A mutual fund shares may be the best choice if the investment
amount is large enough to qualify for a discount on front-end
sales loads that may be offered for larger mutual fund investments
and usually starts at $50,000, but sometimes can be as low as
$25,000. Use NASD's Mutual
Fund Expense Analyzer to compare and calculate mutual fund
expenses.
- If the
strategy involves variable annuities, be aware that most variable
annuities have sales charges, including asset-based sales charges
or surrender charges. In addition, variable annuities may impose
a variety of fees and expenses when you invest in them, including
mortality and expense fees, administrative costs, and investment
advisory fees. Some products offer, for an extra fee, enhanced
benefits that go beyond standard contract features, such as
living benefitsÑwhich are designed to protect a client's future
income streamÑas well as death benefitsÑwhich are designed to
protect a client's death benefit payable to a beneficiary. The
bottom line: variable annuities can be complex and expensive
relative to other investments.
- Check
out whether the person offering you early retirement investments
is registered with NASD by checking NASD
BrokerCheck or calling our Hotline at (800) 289-9999. If
he or she is registered, be sure to check out any red flags
raised by employment or disciplinary history.
- Seek a
second opinion before committing to an early retirement strategy.
Consider taking the initiative to set up an appointment with
a financial professional before taking the advice of someone
who "found you." To get started, read the Securities and Exchange
Commission's How
to Pick a Financial Professional.
Keep in mind
that your retired life may be as long as, or longer than, your
working life. Take the time to research your retirement options
carefullyÑbefore you leave the working world behind.
Additional
Resources
NASD Investor Alert, Variable
Annuities: Beyond the Hard Sell
NASD Investor
Alert, Mutual
Fund Breakpoints: A Break Worth Taking
NASD Investor
Alert, Understanding
Mutual Fund Classes
NASD Investor
Alert, Think
Twice Before Cashing Out Your 401(k)
Securities
and Exchange Commission's Variable
Annuities: What You Should Know
IRS's FAQs
related to Section 72(t), FAQs
regarding Revenue Ruling 2002-62
To receive
the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information,
sign up for Investor
News.
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TheÊJoy
of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor, Jodi Seidler.
What
people like about me most are my desire to learn and my ability
to keep growing, past my comfort zone. Hence, I decided it was
time to get into the stock market. I consider myself a highly
intuitive person in my civilian life - but my BIG question was
- does this transfer into the world of stocks and bonds? I
clicked my heels three times and said, "There is no place
like IRA" and then I dug in my heels, palms sweating. I
researched via YAHOO finance. I asked questions of a retired stockbroker
friend (and date) of mine. I registered with Schwab.com (a favorite
of my dear old dad), and I visualized myself as wealthy from my
investments.
As an entrepreneur
and website owner (my web site
MakingLemonade.com is a community for single parents)
I knew from my son-the-teenager, back in April of 2005, that MySpace.com
was a hot property. (We all must have real estate on the web.)
So, I researched and I did my due diligence with trusted
investors. I read what Natalie Pace had to say about MySpace.com
as well, and THEN I jumped. It happened the week before
my 51st birthday, the day after I had a dream that the stock would
become famous. I pushed the buy button and buckled my virgin-investor
seat belt. I was NOW a stockholder with a dream, with a
piece of the proverbial pie. I am a tech girl by nature,
so I am drawn to tech stocks because that is who I am.
So was my
dream a prophecy as I had felt? Was I as foolish as my left-brained
broker-mentor told me I was? Well, all I can say is take
your worse nightmare and add a pitch of "told you so" and you'd
have what happened next. Three days following my brilliant purchase
of MIX stock, Elliot Spitzer (feel free to GOOGLE him for more
info) sued my savior stock for a series of [alleged] Wall Street
crimes and the stock fell like a ride at Magic Mountain. I
panicked, I lost sleep, and I even sought advice from a psychic.
Not only could I not sleep at night, I had enough hot sweats to give menopause a new name. Had I been too quick to push the BUY button? As I entered the "Should I stay or should I go" syndrome - all I could hear were the echoes from the past, from a 'long-forgotten-due-to-therapy' chorus of "What were you thinking??!!!" in my ears. Had I indeed been better off putting all of my money on 23 black on the roulette wheel? I laid in bed thinking of all the ways I could have spent that forsaken investment.... five month's rent, a trip to New York or Paris, plus those outrageous pair of boots I had cooed over in In Style Magazine.
I felt lost
and stupid and alone in my 'woe is me' world. I HAD to talk
myself back into the world of grown-up, where we acknowledge our
mistakes and move on. But, why couldn't I move on? I still
felt a tinge of a possible "comeback"; after all, this is Hollywood
- the land of the comeback. If only I could only hang on
to the belief in turnarounds and magic. I needed to hang
on to my hopes and dreams of the American way. I know, as
a single mom, I am a Superwoman, but truth be told - I cannot
leap tall buildings or truly predict the future. But I CAN
follow my hunches and choose to truly feel that in some cosmic
way I did buy a piece of something I believe in. And, I
do believe in building community on and off line, and I do believe
in owning a piece (and hopefully peace) of Wall Street.
And then I called Natalie Pace. She shared with me, the novice of novices, stories and analogies from her history files - and I found the meaning inside those stories. One of the stories she told me was of a woman who was going to get out of the stock market and take a large loss at a time, in October 2002, when the markets were at a 5-year low. Natalie explained that education is always better than panicking and that the markets were at a 5-year low. Historically, she explained, it is not a good idea to sell low, unless you're talking about an Enron or a Global Crossing. The woman hung on, the market came back and she became very happy she stayed in the market.
Natalie's story brought home to me the point to NOT be fueled by emotions when it comes to selling; and that to "know when to hold 'em/know when to fold 'em" comes very much into play in the market and not just in the realm of relationships. I learned, from the story that it is best to have a clear, non-emotional head and to know what comes down can come UP (and vice versa). That assurance gave me a breath and a knowing that if I just sat on my hands and breathed - I would be able to see much more clearer what to do. Waiting and watching and educating myself really helped during this period. Also I learned NOT to listen to any one else's advice to "get out NOW." After all, it is MY money and my very own vision of the stock and company I bought into.
I held on. I gathered a buddy system through YAHOO stock newsgroups that had also invested in this myspace.com/MIX phenomenon - so I was not alone. I am a hand holding kind of girl! What was funny was that the stock HAD become famous - even infamous, as in my dream, but not for the reasons I had assumed. Like a celebrity who gets in the papers with their name spelled correctly, my stock had its month in the limelight. And NOW because of Spitzer, people KNEW about MIX and myspace.com. Just a few short months after, Rupert Murdoch decided he needed to own myspace.com (to capture the 14 - 36 plus demographic). The stock soared, and so did my hopes and dreams!
Albeit, I didn't make enough for Sam's college education or that car he wants, but I did prove to myself that with some moxie, education, a buddy system - PLUS some dollars - I CAN make a difference in my finances and empower myself to continue this exciting financial journey in the stock market. I made a lot of money (to me) for what was really a very short period of time. Although my hope was that someone else would out bid this Mogul (which did not occur), I still gained a real presence of confidence and gratitude that I was brave, strong and confident enough to follow my dreams.
Most of all I built a trust in myself that I can, with careful study and the help of gurus, build a solid portfolio and a trust in myself that no one can infiltrate. I am a "winner" in the stock market with a success story that makes me proud, and one I can share with other virgins wanting to dip their toes in the market waters. With my current proven confidence that I can make it though the Wall Street Dark Night of the Soul, I have a newly anointed knowing that with education, staying power and some guts - I can continue to invest - in myself, my future and in our country. And now, I can even translate and deliver those dreams to my son, so he can create his future as an entrepreneur.
Can it get
any better than that?
Jodi Seidler is
the founder of the leading single parent information site MakingLemonade.com and the author of 55 Things Every Divorcing Mom Should Know! Jodi not only has experience writing, speaking and coaching single parents, but also is also dedicated to helping single parents find their voice and career path and market it to the outside world. Feel free to connect with her at: Jodi@makinglemonade.com
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Recipe for Successful
Investing:
by Natalie
Pace, CEO and founder, NataliePace.com
Cook
Up Serious Profits With the Right Ingredients, Starting With Your
Heart.
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| Natalie Pace, i-Sophia CEO and founder |
Sometimes
it is much easier than it sounds. The most overlooked ingredients
for successful investing in any asset class - from real estate,
to stocks, to Beanie Babies and classic cars -- are more available
to you than you might think. You already know more about investing
than you understand. Therefore, cooking up profits, if you stay
true to what you know and understand most, can be yours without
all of the mind-numbing charts.
Below is a
three-step, easy-to-use recipe for successful investing that utilizes
just three key ingredients. If you want to understand just how
delicious the results from this recipe are, consider the returns
on the companies featured in my newsletter - currently running
at 47% annualized (or almost fifty cents on the dollar EVERY YEAR).
You might
want to post this list in your bathroom or next to your computer
when the numbers, charts and brain gymnastics associated with
the due diligence of investing overwhelms you. As most seasoned
money managers point out, no one has a crystal ball for the markets.
The below strategies, however, when diligently combined, are about
as foolproof as investing gets.
Any great
chef knows that no matter how fancy or complicated your recipe
gets, you must never lose track of the fundamentals. Whether your
passion is candlestick charts, commodities or condos, it will
pay off to know where your target lies on the foundation of investing
-- before you place your money on the line.
Main
Ingredients:
1. Start with
companies (or real estate or collectibles) that you understand
AND care about.
2. Pick the
leader in the sector.
3. Buy low/sell
high.
1.
Start with your heart and add your brain: The
most successful investors on the planet do it
There are many
reasons to invest in companies you know and love. Peter Lynch
says, "If you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock."
Warren Buffet is notorious for avoiding NASDAQ during the bubble
(and bust). Buffet's portfolio didn't see the highs or lows of
the Internet cycle, but he did see steady growth to the tune of
staying the world's second wealthiest man, according to Forbes
magazine.
You Know
Before the Analysts
Consumers
get the information BEFORE it shows up in an earnings report!
If the product is headed downhill fast, and all of your friends
are shopping at the competitor's store, you can bet that the next
quarterly earnings report is not going to be a champagne-popping
affair. There are many signs when companies are booming (sales
are out of this world, consumers can't get enough, companies are
buying back their own stock, insiders are on a buying spree),
and equally enough red flags when times get rough (bond offerings,
empty stores, outdated product line, consensus insider selling,
decline in quality, poor customer service).
If you understand,
like and use the product, you probably understand what makes your
favorite company's products BETTER than the competition. You may
not understand exactly HOW they do it, but you know firsthand
that the company is getting something right, and you likely know
it BEFORE the earnings show up on an analyst's desk. Buying in
before the professionals tell the crowd to buy means that you
can sell high when everything hits a frenzy, and buy low; sell
high works every time.
Socially
Conscious
Investing
in companies you know and love also means promoting things that
you believe in (and vice versa). You can actively create good
in the world by putting your money where your mouth is. How many
Americans who boycott or sue tobacco companies own mutual funds
with Altria stock (Philip Morris' parent company) without even
knowing it? The numbers might surprise you. Do you know which
companies make up your mutual fund? Are you boycotting and picketing
companies that you own stock in? In Cowboy terms, that's the same
thing as shooting yourself in the foot. Know your portfolio and
make a change if you don't approve of the company or the products.
It is one of the most effective ways to change the world you live
in.
Your Radar
is Up
Your
antenna for news on a company that you know and love is always
on high alert. If you pass a newsstand with a headline on your
favorite company, you're likely to stop and buy the paper. If
someone at a party mentions your company, you're likely to find
a way to eavesdrop or enter the conversation. Since successful
investing means predicting the futureÑwhether or not your company
will continue to grow in earnings and share priceÑyou need to
know what's going on! How are you going to convince yourself to
keep up on a widget with a company description that looks like
hieroglyphics?
2.
Pick the leader in the sector: Line
Up the Competition
Here is where
the numbers are critical. You need a company that is poised to
lead its industry in market share and growth, while buying it
at a reasonable price. Lining up the numbers can help tremendously!
Is your company profitable? Is it carrying a lot of debt? Is it
vulnerable to younger, leaner companies? What are the insiders
doingÑbuying or selling? Once you line up your favorite company
alongside its competitors in a Stock Report Card (NataliePace.com
publishes one with every ezine), the puzzle pieces start to fill
in and the picture begins to reveal itself. To gain more competence
in this game, read NataliePace.com religiously, especially the
monthly Stock Report Cards. Consider the target investment to
be a mosaic with 100 tiles. The more tiles you turn over, the
clearer the picture of whether or not the investment is a smart
idea. Do your due diligence and don't be pushed into ACTING NOW.
(People who rush you into quick decisions are either salespersons
or scam artists.)
Price to
Earnings Ratio
P/E: In
general, the lower the P/E, the better the value (price). If the
P/E is high for the industry or N/A (negative earnings), then
either the share price is high, or the earnings are low. (Price
to earnings ratio is affected by both numbers: share price divided
by earnings per share.) P/E is not the easiest concept to grasp
initially. Read up on it, and keep looking at your report cards.
FYI: Young companies in rapidly growing sectors, like the Internet
in the late 1990s and alternative energy companies today, will
have negative earnings and/or high price to earnings ratios because
you are investing in future earnings potential, not existing sales.
Thus, there are times when you'd want to buy into a company with
negative earnings and/or a higher price to earnings ratio.
Price
Check the
52-week high and the 52-week low at least! If the price can fluctuate
between these highs and lows, what are the chances that you can
pick up your company for a lower price this year, if you exercise
a little patience? It's not a bad idea to check the 5 or 10-year
trend as well. Many money sites offer easy links to create your
own charts.
Blue Chips
versus Small Caps
Market
capitalization: Think of it this way. Multi billion dollar market
capitalizations are like Jabba the Hut. They are big beaurocratic
blobs that don't move very fast, have a lot of expenses, and rule
the universe. Micro capitalization companies (under a billion
in market capitalization) are like the hare. They can win the
short dash because they are speedy and full of energy. They are
not guaranteed to win the marathon, however. Jabba the Hut has
friends in high places, and will likely pull out all the stops
to be victorious in the end. So Blue Chips typically stabilize
your portfolio and have more conservative returns with lower risk,
while small caps have more risk and, on average, a higher rate
of return (unless they go belly-up).
Is the
Company Losing Money?
Check the
Sales/Income link on your favorite money site. The company may
have multi billions in sales, but is it profitable? Make sure
you look at the income, in addition to the sales. Hint: If the
P/E is N/A, then the company is losing money.
Debt Can
be a Big Deal
Debt/Equity
Ratio: You can identify the long-term debt of the company by multiplying
the debt/equity ratio with the market capitalization. You'd be
surprised at the kind of debt some of the more established companies
in America are carrying, particularly the domestic automakers,
network airlines, Sallie Mae and Freddie Mac, to name a few É
Be aware also that corporations are not yet required to list their
pension and health care plan liabilities. Thus, any corporation
that was founded before 1980 that still has a defined-benefits
pension plan is probably in more debt than their balance sheet
indicates. For example, according to Standard
and Poor's, General Motors owed over $69 billion
in Pension
and Other Post Employment Benefits (i.e. health care,
etc.) at the end of December 2005.
What are
the Chairman and CEO doing: Buying or Selling?
Insider Trading:
Insiders tip their hand on how they feel about their company's
future with their buying and selling of their own options. Consensus
insider selling is typically a red flag, while consensus insider
buying would indicate that insiders have a reasonably good reason
to believe in the future growth of the company. This is not a
reliable measure by itself, due to tax considerations and philanthropy,
but many executives, especially rookie executives, just can't
help themselves from sticking their hands in the cookie jars.
Also, corporate buybacks can be a good sign from the board that
it believes in the future of the corporation and that the current
price is a bargain.
3.
Buy Low/Sell High.
Easy
to say. Hard to do. Buying low means that when everyone else thinks
it's the Apocalypse, you're out there planting seeds. Selling
high means that when everyone is popping champagne, partying and
bragging about their earnings, you're the one sobering up, selling
out and heading home, while everyone tells you how crazy you are
to leave when the party is just getting started! Check the 52-week
high and low, as well as the five and ten year highs and lows.
Consider seasonal market trends. Will there be a better buying
opportunity in a few months (or longer), or is it important to
buy in now? If your company has had a good run-up, is it time
to take some profits and redistribute your assets?
Remember that
a "rising tide lifts all boats," while a sinking tide grounds
all! It is very difficult for even great companies to swim against
the tide during a market correction. You could have thrown a dart
at a wall full of stocks in 1999 and seen incredible profits,
while 2000-2002 were all losing years. Your best protections against
bear markets and to ensure a great future are asset allocation,
a long-term plan and ongoing education. Your best recipe for cooking
up great profits on any investment is with this easy, 3-step investment
recipe!
Full Disclosure:
Natalie Pace owns short positions in General Motors.
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A View From a Broad.
by Janet
Hanson, founder of 85
Broads, a Global Women's Network.
Excerpt
from the book More
Than 85 Broads,
 |
| caption: Janet Hanson and the 85 Broads Race
for the Cure Team (Janet is in the pink shirt) |
In 1987, I
resigned from a blockbuster 11-year career at the premier investment
banking firm of Goldman Sachs. I had gotten married in 1980 to
a wonderful guy I worked with. We sat directly across from each
other on the trading floor. We had been secretly dating for three
years and so our engagement announcement was a tremendous shock
to our colleagues in the Fixed Income Division. Unfortunately,
we got divorced four years later when we figured out that while
we loved being business colleagues, we were not in love. We continued
to sit across from each other on the sales desk as we truly enjoyed
working with each other. We even had "joint custody"
of our teddy bear, Joe.
But
then an interesting thing happened. My ex-husband immediately
started dating lots of nice gals and I had no dates. I didn't
even have a single prospect in sight. But having no dates allowed
me to work longer hours. A year later, I became the co-manager
of the Money Market Sales Group in New York, which was the first
time in Goldman's history that a woman had been promoted to sales
management. I was ecstatic. And since I didn't have a social life,
I started working on the weekends as well. My "ex" thought
I was crazy to take on more responsibility on top of a full client
load, and he thought it was amusing that I was now his boss.
For
the next year while he dated, I worked. He even got red roses
from a gal on Valentine's Day. They were delivered right to his
desk. About six months after we split up, we decided to go out
to dinner for old time's sake. We were drinking margaritas out
of glasses the size of soup bowls and before long we were reasonably
hammered. I looked at my "ex" and said, "Gee, we
seem to be having so much fun, do you think we'll ever get back
together?" I might as well have hit him in the face with
a bucket of ice water; he looked at me and said, "no f 'ing
way!" Although hurt, I had the courage to ask him why; he
looked at me and said, "Because you're too old." He
told me that since he was no longer married to me that he was
under no obligation to date someone "my age." At the
time, I was 32 and he was 36. No one I've ever told this story
to has understood why at that moment I thanked him. I thanked
him because even though the message was brutal, it was the absolute
truth. I started to think about the guys on the trading floor
who I worked with and realized that one of two things was trueÑthey
were either married and had kids or single and dating super models
who were in their early 20s. At that moment I knew there was a
very low probability that I would ever get remarried as long as
I worked all day and entertained clients most nights.
In
the three years that followed my divorce I had exactly two blind
dates. They were guys that weren't "in the business,"
which meant that we had nothing in common. That was when I coined
my favorite expression, "sometimes you just can't drink enough,"
to explain what a disaster the dating scene was for me. I was
a Wall Street "big hitter" and wanted to date someone
who was fun and sophisticated. I soon discovered that most of
the cool guys wanted to date women who were beautiful and sexy,
which was not an easy look to accomplish if you worked like a
dog and looked like you had.
 |
|
Caption:
The 85 Broads Fashion Show
Photo:
85Broads.com
|
So
in January of 1987, when I was sailing in the Caribbean with my
parents and siblings, I made the decision to resign from the firm.
I was overweight, I drank too much, and I felt tired and old.
I'd had an outrageous career at Goldman Sachs, worked with some
of the best and smartest people on Wall Street, but I had no personal
life. And worse than that, I had absolutely no prospects.
On
April 15, the tax date, I left the firm. The "To All"
memo said I was taking a leave of absence to open a marina with
my father. To this day, I cringe when I think about that memo,
as I needed appropriate "cover" for leaving. In reality,
I was leaving because I was terrified that I'd never get remarried
and have kids. I was turning 35 that year and the term middle-aged
was starting to creep into my thought process. The day I walked
out of Goldman Sachs was one of the most painful days of my life.
I was leaving the best friends in the world, an ex-husband who
I still liked and admired, and a firm and a culture that for the
most part, I loved and respected. I left my apartment in New York
City and moved to Princeton to live with my sister. I was so depressed
that there were days when I couldn't even get out of bed. It took
me almost two months to get on my bike and start the process of
putting myself back together physically and mentally. And it took
another three months before I started to feel like a human being.
One
day during the summer I got a call from Peter Mathias, who was
an internal consultant at Goldman Sachs. I liked Peter a lot and
respected the work he had done for senior management. He had a
doctorate in business from Harvard and was a brilliant strategic
thinker. He wanted to know if I would like to work with him a
few days a week on various projects, and I thought, what the heck,
I can always quit if it doesn't work out.
And
so in October of that year, I was back at 85 Broad Street. I'll
never forget riding the elevator up to the 27th floor to visit
all my friends. People I'd worked with for over a decade couldn't
figure out why I'd come back. I remember one of my former colleagues
shaking his head and saying, "I don't get it. You left the
trading floor and a huge job just so you could come back here
part-time to work in Personnel?"
Actually,
I didn't get it either. I had torpedoed my career at the firm
just so I could work out for a summer and get back in shape. I
was so embarrassed to be working in Personnel that I never went
back to the trading floor.
Not
long after I returned to GS, I reconnected with Jeff Hanson, a
really nice young guy who had tried to interview me a few times
as one of the firm's "culture carriers." I realized
that I'd never made an attempt to get to know him, which was unfortunate
as he had a brilliant analytical mind and was great fun to talk
to. He was a little full of himself but not to the point of being
obnoxious. After one date, we decided we were truly meant for
each other. Three weeks later, we got engaged. That might have
set the speed record for courtships, but it didn't feel that way.
We got married on April 6, 1988, at City Hall. We would have gotten
married sooner, but I wanted to wait until the sun was out which
I thought would be a good omen. Amazingly, my brother and sister
and I all got married within six months of each other. My brother,
age 36, got married in November of 1987, my sister, age 34, got
married in January of 1988, and I got married at age 35 in April
of 1988. It was pretty amazing given that all of us had been dating
our future spouses for less than a year. My parents were understandably
in seventh heaven.
On
October 13, 1988, Meredith was born and two years later, on December
12, 1990, Christopher was born. During that time, Jeff left Goldman
Sachs to launch a consulting business, which hadn't exactly been
a barn-burning success. By the time Christopher was born, we were
in dire financial straights. We were renting a house in Westchester
and owned a house in Naples, Florida, which made no sense at all.
I think I was about as depressed as I've ever been. In October
1990 I wrote the following entries in my diary:
October
9, 1990
Dear
Diary,
I'm sitting here paying bills, doing absolutely ZERO that
is fulfilling or satisfying and wishing that I could close
my eyes and make it all go away. I want to start my own
business but the only reason I'm doing it is because I'm
embarrassed not to be doing SOMETHING. Then I think maybe
I'll write a book, but after I come up with a title, I can't
think of anything to say. I have NO ONE to talk to. No one
who could say, hey, let's look at your options, let's figure
out where it would be smartest for you to focus.
I'm thinking of starting a coaching business and yet I'M
the one who needs coaching! If I could just believe
in myself a little bit, if I could just get the right ball
in play, if I could just get past my own depression and
break freeÑI know there is a need for this type of service.
I just need help putting it together and packaging it. Each
day I get more and more despondent over my almost complete
lack of faith in my ability. I have absolutely no support
system.
October
10, 1990
Dear
Diary,
I'm sitting here staring out my window wondering what I'm
going to do with myself. If only we had enough money we
could split but I figure we're stuck here for two more years.
I'll probably start watching soap operas and drinking martinis
at 2 o'clock in the afternoon. The boredom is excruciating.
Maybe I should join some clubs. But I don't want to do that
because I'm so afraid my personal time will be eaten up
by dumb stuff.
I wish I could get into painting so I could spend Meredith's
naptime more productively. All I do now is talk to my friends
from work on the phone and refigure our finances for the
thousandth time. Then I wait for Mer to wake up from her
nap. Figuring out how to use up three hours after that is
brutal. I wish I had a best friend here. I wish I had a
life here. This pretty much sucks.É
On
September 20, 1990, I had written a letter to Jon Corzine
at Goldman Sachs telling him about the coaching business I hoped
to start and why I thought it was so important for the women at
Goldman Sachs:
Dear
Jon,
I plan to start my own coaching business in the next few
months and intend to target the women at Goldman as potential
clients. Women need help in how to handle a dual-career
marriage, maternity leave, time management, and getting
and staying ahead in an increasingly competitive work environment.
In the last three years, I have seen women opt to leave
the firm rather than try to articulate their problems to
management in a way that makes professional sense. Typically
management doesn't even know there is a problem until the
woman announces that she is leaving! Regrettably, this is
because women find it extremely difficult to "connect"
with their (male) managers. Women ask me for career advice
because I was a manager, as they perceive that I have insight
into how the firm is run/managed, which they lack. In essence,
they speak one "language," and I speak two. By
"translating" what their (male) managers say I
can provide them with greater insight, which helps build
their confidence and self-esteem. As a rule, I look for
what's positive in a work relationship to counter women's
fears that the worst is happening.
If
my business gets off the ground, maybe Goldman will want
to hire me as a "field adviser."
Anyway, Jon, you've been a great friend. Without doubt,
you have cared more about the people in the divisionÑpast
and presentÑthan all the other partners combined.
As always,
Janet
When
Christopher was born two months later, all of my business plans
went on indefinite hold. I used to say that when Meredith was
born she looked at me and smiled and said, "Mom, let's go
have coffee." When Christopher was born, he looked at me
and started screaming. He was the most adorable baby but he was
also the world's unhappiest. I am sure that my depression and
plummeting self-esteem were contributing factors to how he viewed
the world.
For
the next 10 months I battled every single day to keep my head
above water. I was mind-numbingly depressed and could barely get
myself out of bed in the morning. I don't remember a single happy
moment. Jeff and I fought almost constantly about money. I think
it would be fair to say that I hated my life and felt like the
walls were closing in on me. I realize now that I should have
been on antidepressants but I was too afraid that I would gain
even more weight. I was out of shape, had never lost the 50 pounds
I'd gained from my pregnancy, and as a result, I had a totally
shattered self-image.
TO BE CONTINUED
NEXT MONTHÉ
In her new
book, More
than 85 Broads, trailblazing superstar Janet Hanson
introduces us to some of the most remarkable, courageous, and
successful members of 85
Broads, a global women's network she founded in 1999.
Women--and men--will want to discover "the power of the network"
at every stage of their careers and lives.
|
|
How to Ask for a Raise
and Get It.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero
to Zillionaire.
 |
Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
Photo credit: Mary Ann Halpin |
"I'm
going to ask for a raise," I declared to my co-worker and
friend, Jennifer.
"Yeah?
Why do you think you deserve one?" she asked.
I was incensed.
What did she mean? Wasn't she my friend?
"Well,
I've been here a year already," I huffed.
"So
what? Just warming the bench doesn't mean you deserve more money,"
she replied.
Tuna Chellie
frowned and looked at her resentfully.
"Come
with me," she said, and motioned for me to sit down in her
office. Then she taught me what I needed to know.
"Asking
for a raise is just like making a sale," Jennifer said. She
went on to tell me that you have to list all your accomplishments
and what they mean to the company in terms of producing or saving
money. Just doing an acceptable job at what you were hired to
do doesn't mean you deserve more money. Raises come to people
who have done an exceptional job, and have worked at a level beyond
the scope of their current job. She showed me how to compare how
things were at the company when I arrived, how I have improved
them, and what they are like now. She told me to research other
companies and what they were paying people in similar jobs. Armed
with this new sales technique, I went in to see the boss, closed
the sale, and got a raise.
That was many
years ago, but I never forgot Jennifer's training, and I know
a lot of people never had a Jennifer in their life to share with
them this valuable lesson. It's another sales lesson. Whether
you're asking a boss for a raise or raising your rates to your
clients, you have to make the sale. Paint the picture of how much
you have done in the past and what you are going to do in the
future to make their lives better and more prosperous, so that
they can see you deserve more money.
You have
to get comfortable with earning more money and being more abundant.
Practice saying your new salary or your new price so that you
can say it without hesitation. If you think it's a big number,
your awe will show, and people will talk you out of it. Often
people who have rich clients are afraid to ask for a reasonable
amount of money for their products or services. A massage therapist
might feel awkward asking for $125 for a massage if he couldn't
afford to get regular massages himself.
A
Little Exercise to Enlarge Your Income
Here's something
to practice that could greatly increase your income. Let's say
that your current price for your product or service is $100 and
you'd like to start charging $150. For you to say, "I charge
$150" after you've been saying $100 for a long while is difficult.
It's uncomfortable because you're in the habit of saying $100.
All your fears about your worthiness and ability to receive abundance
clutch at your insides. You choke on the words, stutter, or make
your request weakly, wincing while you say, "I, uh, charge,
er, a hundred and um, ah, fifty dollars??"
The client
is going to call that obvious bluff immediately: "A hundred
and fifty dollars!?? That's too much money!" That will never
do.
You've got
to say your new price proudly and strongly. You have to practice
saying it, so that you can toss the figure away when you say
it, like you think its nothing. Here's the trick that will help:
Take the new price (not the current price) you want to
chargeÑ$150Ñand double that to $300. Sounds outrageous, doesn't
it? That's the point. Now practice saying that price: "I
charge $300," "I charge $300," over and over. At
least twenty times a day for a week or two. You will be amazed
at how little $150 sounds to you after that. You'll speak it easily
to your clients, because after $300, $150 sounds like a bargain.
Your clients will take their cue from you this time, too, and
be more likely to have a more relaxed acceptance of your price.
Many of my
clients have been amazed at how well this exercise has worked
for them. Not only that, but a lot of them reported their clients
mentioned being surprised their prices had been so low and were
waiting for them to start charging a higher rate.
The Small
Business Administration reports that one of the top reasons small
businesses go under is that they don't charge enough money for
their products or services. My client, Adi, taught all-day Yoga
classes and charged $6. He got ten students, one of whom didn't
even pay the $6. He knew his pricing was too low, but he just
enjoyed teaching the class and didn't want money to stand in the
way of people attending. But he needed more money in his life,
so he decided to charge $235 for the next all-day session. He
got three students. In the first scenario, he made $54. In the
second, he made $705. The difference in his income was $651.
How
Much Money Do You Want?
I give myself
a raise every year or so. If I were working for someone else I'd
want a raise, and I want to be a better boss to myself than someone
else. A lot of entrepreneurs who don't pay themselves enough money
would never work for such a chintzy boss in the corporate world.
In fifteen years of teaching classes, I have found that how much
I charge makes no difference in attendance at my workshops. It
makes a difference in who attends, not how many attend.
There are about 20 million people in the greater Los Angeles area,
and I don't need all of themÑI only need twelve. So I call until
I get twelveÑyou see? If I charged less, in order to make the
same income, I would have to enroll many more people. Then I would
have to book a hotel instead of doing it at my house, that would
cost more money so I'd need to enroll more people and then I'd
need more help and then I'd have to have employees and then I'd
have to enroll more people to pay the employees and then it's
a bigger business than I want. And I've lost the life I want.
But the sales
process for my workshop businessÑthe enrollment conversationÑtakes
the same amount of time, no matter what my price is. That's why
bankers don't bother with small loansÑit takes them the same amount
of time to process a $10,000 loan as a $10 million loan and they
make a lot more money on the bigger loan. In the same way, I want
to make sure the pricing works for me, first. You need to start
with your vision, then work backwards to see what you need to
charge in order to create your living the way you want to live
your life. If people want the benefits of what you do, they will
pay the price for it, whatever it is. There will always be people
who "can't afford you." You can't bring your pricing
down to the lowest common denominator and only charge a dollar
because there are poor people who need you who only have a dollar.
You can run a charity like that, but you can't run a business
like that. Don't choose a non-profit business model unless you're
a bona-fide 501c3.
Chellie Campbell
is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy
Spirit. She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction®
Workshops on which her book is based in the Los Angeles area and
gives programs throughout the country. You can sign up for Chellie's
Ezine at www.chellie.com.
|
|
International
Investing:
by Natalie
Pace
5
Tips to Make Sure You Build an Ark Instead of the Titanic to Navigate
the Globe.
I recently
attended a women's conference where one of the money tips was
to invest abroad. Great idea! What most of the attendees wondered,
however, was where do you begin? While diversifying a portfolio
is a great thing, as is capitalizing on the growth of other countries,
investing abroad does have its own pitfalls. Since we'd like to
flood your freedom plan with profits and not sink the nest egg,
read below for 5 MUST KNOW Tips for Investing Internationally.
1. China:
Never Pay Retail! China has had the most impressive growth
of any country in the world for almost a decade now. Just like
NASDAQ in 1999, you could have thrown a dart in 2002 at any publicly-traded
company in the vicinity of China -- from Hong Kong, to Singapore,
to Taiwan (Shanghai didn't have much of a market back then) --
and posted WOO HOO!! gains. That is not the case today. Many experts
in the Chinese economy warn that publicly-traded companies are
full-valued, meaning that if you invest blindly, you could be
paying top-dollar. Paying high is a vulnerable position if China
were to run into some difficulty, so it's a much better idea to
put Chinese stocks to the same rigorous growth and value test
that you would any U.S. company.
For more information,
read: China:
From Confucius to Communism to Capitalism: Are Your Investment
Dollars Safe There? Written by: Tara Vandenberg.
2. Hong
Kong not Shanghai. The People's Republic of China stagnated economically under six decades of Communist rule, while Hong Kong flourished under the U.K.s free economy for almost a century. There is a huge learning gap between the GAAP accounting standards of the two economies. In general, it is safer to go with a company that is based out of Hong Kong, Singapore or Taiwan, than a mainland Chinese company. There are a few companies that are based in China, however, that have adopted the most rigorous of accounting standards ? Sarbanes-Oxley! These companies will likely boast of the achievement on the Investor Relations page. You?ll need to do more due diligence with the mainland company to be sure that their accounting standard is "Westernized." One easy way to gauge the company is to check out the Chief Financial Officer. If the CFO is Western-educated and has previously served at a prestigious Western accounting firm, like Deloitte and Touche, that is a good sign!
Ed's Note:
There are two mainland companies listed on the Natalie Pace Hot
News on Cool Stocks article this month - Suntech Power Holding
Co. and Sohu.com.
3. Eastern
Europe, not Western Europe.
Eastern Europe has a very high concentration of well-educated
persons. Over the last few years, many Eastern European countries
have been aggressive about advancing personal freedom to own property
and about establishing pro-business policies. As a result, Estonia,
the Czech Republic and Lithuania all rank in the 25 most economically
"free" countries in the world, according to the Center
for International Trade and Economics. The Gross Domestic
Product growth rate of these Eastern European countries has been
on the high end of the world's countries, double that of their
Western European counterparts.
2004
European Gross Domestic Product growth rate.
|
Country
|
GDP
Growth Rate
|
Index
Ranking of Economic Freedom
|
|
Estonia
|
6.2%
|
7
|
|
Lithuania
|
9%
|
23
|
|
The
Czech Republic
|
4.0%
|
21
|
|
France
|
2.1%
|
44
|
|
Germany
|
1.6%
|
19
|
Source: 2006
Index of Economic Freedom
Ed's Note:
A higher percentage means better economic growth. 1-2% is anemic,
almost flat economic growth, which is only slightly better than
a decline or recession.
4. India:
The World's Largest Democracy
India is another country that ranks low, at #121, on the Index
of Economic Freedom, but is experiencing an impressive 8.6% GDP
growth rate. What gives? India may not have advanced individual
freedoms, by Western standards, but the growth of personal freedoms
on their own economic
evolutionary timeline is intoxicating. (For more information
on how becoming more free translates into economic growth,
read the Theory
of Economic Evolution.)
Indians are
educating their people and competing on the world stage for sophisticated
clientele, in areas as important as technology, surgery, health
care and more. A huge "travel" health care business
is thriving in India, since Americans can undergo quality surgical
procedures at one-tenth of the cost, and have a vacation to the
Taj Mahal to boot!
Before you
think that just any old industry rocks in this country, however,
consider your own experience with the nation's most thriving business
- outsourcing. If outsourcing hasn't ruined your sex life,
your family life and your business, while you wait on hold for
hours to speak to someone who is exceedingly unhelpful, then just
ask anyone within firing range if they would invest in an Indian
outsourcing business. Personally, I'm not into promoting
a business that leaves me red in the face with frustration, and
I'm hoping if you vote with your dollars, too, then the whole
mess of phone center outsourcing will disappear. Your callÉ
5.
Exchange-Traded Funds, Not Mutual Funds. As you
can see from the below chart, there has been a steady flow of
money away from the fee-loaded mutual funds into the almost free
Exchange-Traded Funds (or ETFs), many of which are traded on the
American Stock Exchange. Check with your broker and/or brokerage
for a list of funds, or browse the offerings at the American
Stock Exchange for the most comprehensive listing of ETFs. If your company's choices are too limited, check into the possibility of rolling over your company 401(k) FOR FREE into an online discount brokerage (or a full-service brokerage) Individual Retirement Account, where the choices tend to be more flexible. There are qualifying events that enable you to rollover for free without any penalty at all, even while you are still employed. Check with your human resources person and/or call your broker. Click to access a list of online
discount brokerages. These sites have become great
at providing click-happy do-it-yourselfers with everything you
need to succeed. If you'd rather just find a broker, be sure to
read "Brokers
and Lovers: It Pays to Pick a Good One" for great
tips on how to interview the 2nd most important man (or woman)
in your life.

source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
BONUS
TIP: Tithe to Yourself! Wonder how much you should be setting aside for your financial freedom 401(k)? If you tithe 10% to yourself, you can become a millionaire in just 31 years, even if you make only $14/hour, thanks to the power of compounding. That works even if you NEVER GET A RAISE for the entire time. (So imagine how much faster you can reach your goal if you increase your responsibility and your earning potential!) For more information on the math of becoming a millionaire simply by tithing to yourself, read the article, "From
Flipping Burgers
to Owning Your Own Island." T.
Harv Eker has a great "jar" system, where
you pay yourself FIRST, setting aside 10% to your financial freedom
plan, 10% to your education fund (yours not your kid's), 10% for
your FUN and 10% for your charitable giving, instead of plunking
down 100% of your paycheck each month for bills and your daily
dose of caffeine (lattes add up to $75/month!). Harv's system
works. Click on Harv,
and start applying this simple system for great results.
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
are a media and information center. This article is intended to
educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals
and strategies.
|
|
Dealing with Climate
Change, and Taking Advantage of Sunny Days.
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC
 |
| Paul
Woods, President & CEO, Odyssey Advisors LLC. |
Is it just
me, or are you getting a little tired of the hand-wringing media
coverage of every hot day? All we hear is OMIGOD, THE PLANET IS
GETTING WARMER. However, a caveat needs to be added to put this
in perspective. Saying something is getting warmer begs the question,
warmer than what? As it turns out, the answer is the planet is
now warmer than it was during the last mini ice age that ended
a few hundred years ago. I don't know about you, but I like being
outdoors without a parka and am having a hard time getting too
worked up about this.
Avoiding
Courtrooms
From
the coverage of this issue, it's easy to get the impression there's
universal scientific consensus that global warming is man-made
and caused by greenhouse gas emissions. What's interesting, however,
is that lawyers don't appear to be in any hurry to have both sides
of this issue aired in a courtroom, even in California. Oil companies
are the ultimate deep-pocketed target, and their pockets are getting
deeper every day. If the case is airtight, why aren't lawyers
lined up to sue them for global warming? Following are some of
the reasons this case may never see a courtroomÉ
Reference
Points
Reference points make or break any discussion of climate change. There's no question the planet is warmer than it was during the last mini ice age that ended a few hundred years ago. However, that was an unusually cold period in the earth's history and about the only people who would trade the current climate for that one are skiers. If the reference point is changed to around 1,000 years ago, a reasonable conclusion would be that we might be a little cooler, but there's been little change in global temperatures. Going back longer than that, there were numerous periods when the planet was much warmer than it is now and using those periods as reference points could make a very persuasive case for global cooling.
Some
Perspective
The
reference points used to make the argument that current temperatures
are unusually high tend to be fairly recent and are rarely longer
than a few centuries. There's good reason for that, as The History of Climate Change
demonstrates. The first graph showing global temperatures going
back a million years puts current temperatures in perspective.
When measured over a long period of time, current temperatures
are still slightly below average. It can get a lot warmer and
still be in a normal range. A full cycle (ice age to hot, back
to ice age) appears to take around 100,000 years and the current
long-term warming cycle started when the last major ice age ended
around 20,000 years ago.
OOPS
Taking
climate changes that have occurred over a few decades and projecting
them to infinity can produce some pretty silly conclusions. For
instance, a few decades ago, environmentalists and scientists
with very impressive credentials were up in arms about global
cooling. The planet had gone through a short cooling cycle from
1945-1975, which is why most graphs of global temperatures and
greenhouse gas emissions usually start after that. Interestingly,
Newsweek Magazine seems to have turned off the link to
their famous article, but we still found it at denisdutton.com.
It's worth going to the PDF version to get the full graphics that
were included in the original article.
As you can
see, unless something was done about global cooling, there would
be dire consequences. The planet would become too cold to grow
enough food and lots of people would starve. Is there widespread
relief in the environmental community now that a warming planet
makes it possible to grow more food in more places? Not a chance.
Three decades later, environmentalists have gone from wringing
their hands over global cooling to wringing their hands over global
warming. What's also consistent is that, either way, drastic measures
are going to have to be taken to change the climate or we'll be
facing Armageddon.
Too
Small to Matter?
To
make it sound like a lot, environmentalists invariably talk about
the TONS of hydrocarbons that end up in the atmosphere as greenhouse
gasses, primarily carbon dioxide. A graph of several decades'
worth of emissions that looks like the path up a steep hill is
usually shown also. Sounds pretty serious, but keep in mind the
earth's atmosphere is huge. In reality, greenhouse gasses in the
atmosphere comprise less than 400 parts per million and the best
term to describe them is miniscule.
At wikipedia.org
there's a good description of the earth's atmosphere. For perspective,
let's assume the atmosphere is a football field 100 yards wide.
In this analogy, nitrogen would cover the first 78 yards, oxygen
would take you to the 99-yard line, and argon brings you within
1.3 inches of the goal line. There are some inert gasses still
left that reduce the distance to the goal line to just over 1.2
inches. What are left are the notorious greenhouse gasses, mostly
carbon dioxide. We tried to create a chart to show this, but the
amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere was too small to
show up.
Inconvenient
Questions
If
there's a direct connection between hydrocarbon emissions and
global warming, how did the planet get cooler from 1945 though
1975 when those emissions were increasing? In addition, if the
planet is now warmer than it was several hundred years ago, how
could this warming cycle have started when fossil fuels weren't
available and greenhouse comprised an even more miniscule amount
of the atmosphere than they do now?
Finally, if
we've turned loose all that greenhouse gas that's turning the
earth into a hothouse, why is the planet not quite back to the
same average temperature of 1000 years ago? And why is the climate
still significantly cooler than it has been in the past?
What
Consensus?
There are more than a few people on the other side of this debate and they aren't all crackpots. At last count, over 17,000 scientists had signed a petition from the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine that questions the link between hydrocarbons and global warming and the resulting doomsday predictions. Click here to view it.
Be
Careful What You Wish For
Another reason there are unlikely to be any lawsuits for global warming is the issue of proving damages. They're hard to find. When environmentalists talk about reversing global warming, they appear to have forgotten their own dire warnings a few decades ago about the consequences of the planet getting any colder. Although there are pros and cons for each side, there's likely to be more food produced and fewer people starving if the planet continues to get warmer. For more info, click: nationalcenter.org.
A millennium
ago when temperatures were a bit higher than they are now, agriculture
flourished in Europe and as far north as Greenland. Warmer days
will allow higher value crops and more food to again be grown
in places farther from the equator. In addition, carbon dioxide
acts as a fertilizer on plants while reducing transpiration (the
passage of water through a plant's leaves to the atmosphere).
As a result, the increase in food production may not require a
corresponding increase in water.
According
to the World Bank, one third of the world's population suffers
from chronic water shortages and that number is expected to increase
to 40% by 2025. While the scientific community is divided over
many aspects of global warming, even the alarmists concede that
more sunny days will increase the amount of condensation and evaporation.
This will probably produce more and/or heavier rains that may
help resolve water scarcity problems in some parts of the world.
The
Crux of the Matter
There's
little question the planet has been getting warmer for the last
20,000 years. The real crux of this debate has to do with the
cause. If this is a natural phenomenon, we might as well sit back
and enjoy the sunshine as the chances of doing anything about
it are pretty slim. However, if this problem is man-made, blame
can be assigned and those responsible can be forced to pay.
All the left wing politicians on the planet are falling over themselves to embrace "the man is responsible" explanation and the doomsday scenarios, and it isn't too difficult to guess why. This provides political cover for their favorite thing, higher taxes. After all, how can anyone argue against raising taxes on fossil fuels if this might prevent the horrors of catastrophic warming?
Saving
the Planet by Enriching the Third World
The
Kyoto Protocol, created by the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change, takes finger pointing a step further and blames
countries. The fact that this was sponsored by the United Nations
should raise an immediate red flag. Predictably, this applies
to developed countries only, as egregious polluters in the third
world like China, India, and Brazil are exempt.
Under this
treaty, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be reduced to 1990
levels. Since this will probably take economic growth back 16
years also, a second alternative was created to make this more
palatable. The capitalist polluters in developed countries can
buy GHG emissions credits from the socialist polluters exempt
from this UN treaty. Although the United States didn't sign this
treaty, a lot European countries signed on and are now faced with
the difficult task of trying to reduce their use of fossil fuels
without killing their economies.
Making
Alternatives More Attractive
Whether
or not you buy the argument that man and fossil fuels are responsible,
the one certain thing about global warming is that a lot of politicians
are going to do everything they can to pile more taxes on fossil
fuels because of it. They'll probably have some success, which
will raise the cost of an increasingly scarce resource. The bottom
line is that fossil fuels are a finite resource and, if demand
keeps growing, production will be unable to keep up and higher
prices will allocate the shortfall in supplies. We're going to
have to find alternatives eventually, and the heavy hand of government
is likely to bring that day a little closer by using global warming
as an excuse to make fossil fuels even more expensive.
Taking
Advantage of Sunny Days
On
the off chance that a tax grab and a wealth transfer to the third
world don't stop a warming cycle that began 20,000 years ago,
one energy alternative is tailor made for more sunny days. Sunshine
can be converted into electricity using solar panels. These are
also the cleanest and safest method of power generation, don't
require new infrastructure, generate power at the intended site,
don't require transmission lines, can be connected to the existing
electricity grid, produce completely renewable power, produce
maximum power during periods of peak demand (middle of the day),
require little maintenance, and can last up to 45 years.
For an investor,
solar offers the combination of companies whose business is booming
while the stocks are languishing. Demand is going through the
roof from countries that signed on to the Kyoto Protocol, rapidly
growing countries like China that are perpetually short of power,
and increasing solar subsidies in many others. As a result, the
biggest problem facing most solar companies today is meeting demand.
Many have a 2-3 year order backlog while their stocks remain well
below their highs for the year.
With the cost
of solar coming down through economies of scale while energy prices
and energy taxes continue to rise, solar has the potential to
be competitive without subsidies in a few more years. At that
point, demand will explode as the huge global market for electricity
opens up. In the meantime, taxpayers will pay part of the cost
of solar panels for your roof so you can at least save money on
electricity bills until Armageddon arrives. For disclosure purposes,
it should be noted that Odyssey Advisors has investments in Energy
Conversion Devices (ENER), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Sun Power (SPWR)
and SunTech Power (STP).
Editor's
Note: For an alternative view of global warming, go to Al
Gore's website and/or rent the movie, An
Inconvenient Truth. To line up the numbers on the solar
energy companies that are publicly traded, read the article "Solar
Powers Whole Foods!" in this issue.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however
Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material
and are subject to change without notice. This material is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Paul Woods
is President and CEO of Odyssey Advisors LLC, an independent investment
advisory firm specializing in equity and fixed income management
for individuals, entrepreneurs, families, endowments, and non-profit
institutions. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Copyright
© 2006 by Odyssey Advisors LLC
|
|
Where Are the Back
To School Stock Sales?
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
Our Popular Hot News on Cool Stocks List, Featuring 23 GREAT Companies
That are Racking Up ReturnsÉ
which
keeps the companies featured on My NataliePace.com Hot News list
at the top of Annualized Returns, with 48%, according to TipsTraders.com.
Adds:
Agilent,
Suntech Holdings Co. Ltd. and Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
(ETF).
Deletions:
Goldcorp. Goldcorp was taken off of the Hot News list effective
10.04.06. Gains since the first listing in 2003 were at 110%!
Look for Back
to School Stock sales to add to your portfolio? Be choosy. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average is flirting with its all-time high,
which means that a lot of stocks are not bargains. Make sure you
have a good reason for buying a stock with a Price to Earnings
ratio that is higher than 19. It is also not a great time to sell
anything either, since the Santa Rally and the pre-election year
rally may be waiting in the wings for their gains! Still, as you
can see, we have found three new beauties to add to our list!
|
Year
|
S&P
500
|
MidCap
Stocks
|
SmallCap
Stocks
|
All
Growth
|
All
Value
|
|
One
Year Before Presidential Election
|
|
Average
Return
|
20.14%
|
23.19%
|
27.18%
|
20.68%
|
20.04%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Election
Years
|
|
Average
Return
|
13.43%
|
15.05%
|
16.50%
|
10.69%
|
17.14%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
One
Year After Presidential Election
|
|
Average
Return
|
7.33%
|
10.93%
|
11.63%
|
5.60%
|
12.28%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Two
Years After Presidential Election
|
|
Average
Return
|
8.31%
|
7.44%
|
7.34%
|
7.21%
|
10.65%
|
Source: Odyssey
Advisors
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1.
Higher Interest Rates? The Federal Open Market Committee paused in September and August, after raising interest rates 17 consecutive times in previous meetings. The federal funds rate remains at 5 1⁄4%. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October
24, 2006. Interested in reading the minutes of the August meeting
for yourself? You can. They are available online. Click on FOMC
Minutes to read!
The tentative meeting schedule for the rest of 2006 is: October 24 and December 12, 2006. In 2007: January 30-31, 2007, March 20-21 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
May 9 (Wednesday), June 27-28 (Wednesday-Thursday), August 7 (Tuesday),
September 18 (Tuesday), October 30-31 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December
11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact
that the Federal Open Market Committee has decided to increase
the number of 2-day sessions from two to four is an indicator
that there is double the concern over managing the economy in
the coming months and years.
2. Check
the Calendar Section of NataliePace.com frequently for
upcoming chats. We feature a money manager, Nobel Laureate, doctor
or other VIP in our chat room every month. Available to subscribers
only.
3. Important
Commodities Quote: "The U.S. housing market alone
accounts for approximately 5% of global demand for copper - thus
a decline in housing should make a dent in copper needs. Nonetheless,
many perceive secular growth in China and elsewhere to be driving
commodities demand, while supply has been restricted by years
of underinvestment." Tobias Levkovich, Chief Analyst, Citigroup,
from the Portfolio Strategist, 9.14.06
Bottom
Line: NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important
information, but you need to consult your financial planner to
determine your best strategy for using the information. That will
depend upon your age, your retirement plan, and your risk tolerance
and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your portfolio
is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek to gain
higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert, don't
bet the farm on the stock market. NataliePace.com is NOT a brokerage
and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an online media service
with a mission of providing the news and information you need
to make better choices in business, investing and personal prosperity.
Always consult a trusted financial professional before buying
or selling any security.
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I own under the column "NP OWNS?"
Hot Stocks
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price when first featured in
the NataliePace.com ezine. This may be a good buying opportunity.
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted
may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised
to continue performing well. There are never any guarantees in
life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your
certified financial planner before making any changes to your
investment strategy.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
9.29.06
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Gains
since original feature
|
|
Agilent
(Green)
|
No
|
A
|
$32.69
|
--
|
$39.54
$26.96
|
--
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on renewable
energy.
|
|
Bioteq
(Green) Environmental Technologies
RISK:
VERY HIGH
Penny
Stock in a great sector.
|
No
|
TSX:
BQE
(Note:
this is only traded on the Toronto Exchange)
|
$.80
|
$1.65
|
$2.00
$.66
|
1.06%
|
|
Market
Cap: $68.9 million. Outstanding Shares: 45.1M. Biz: "Solves
the largest single liability facing the mining industry
worldwide -- metal contaminated acid water." Reduces
and/or eliminates sludge liability. Patented BioSulphide™
water treatment process. Market includes $72 billion in
cleanup costs in the US and $6 billion in Canada. Q1 2006
revenue was $700,000. Q2, Q3 and Q4 2006 revenue estimates
are $1 million, $1.4 million and almost $2M respectively.
Buy recommendation with a one-year target of $2.10 from
M Partners' analyst Lawrence Casse. Water treatment and
metals recovery for acid-contaminated water in mining ind.
Bioteq's customers include Jiangxi Copper (China), Breakwater
Resources, Falconbridge, and Phelps Dodge. This company
is only trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange's TSX. Go
to Bioteq.CA for more info. When we first listed the company
last year, it was a very high-risk penny stock. Bioteq's
board and size lend more stability to this investment. Board
includes: Kenneth F. Williamson, B.Sc., MBA (Chairman BlackRock
Ventures Inc, Director Glamis Gold and Director Quadra Mining),
Kelvin Dushnisky, M.Sc., LLB (Senior Vice President, Corporate
Affairs Barrick Gold Corporation), and Ian Telfer, C.A.
(President and Chief Executive Officer Goldcorp Inc.).
|
|
Blockbuster
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
BBI
|
$3.61
|
$3.84
|
$10.65
$3.19
|
+7%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4, "Blockbuster Sale." Very high
risk. Distressed acquisition play in a heated up M&A
environment? Jules Haimovitz was added to its board on 5.26.06.
Haimovitz is currently vice chairman and managing partner
of TV production company Dick Clark Productions Inc. He
was formerly president of MGM Networks Inc., a unit of Metro
Goldwyn Mayer Inc., and served as president and chief operating
officer of TV programming syndicator King World Productions
Inc. Currently in a legal battle with NetFlix over the right
to rent movies through the mail, which NetFlix claims to
own the patent on. According to the AP, BBI is still considering
the sale of some assets, and will, in the meantime, invest
in a significant number of new Gamestation stores during
2007.
|
|
U.S.
Global Investors Eastern Europe
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$43.14
|
$50.20
$23.02
|
+27%
|
|
Vanguard
seems to be in the right countries, and within those countries,
in the right growing sectors. See vol. 2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
|
Disney
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$30.91
|
$30.53
$22.89
|
+23%
|
|
"This
season, half of the top 10 shows among young adults are
on ABC, including such great series as Lost, Desperate
Housewives, Grey's Anatomy and Extreme Makeover:
Home Edition. And Dancing with the Stars was
another great success for us, captivating audiences of all
ages," Bob Iger, the Disney Shareholder Meeting. Disney/Pixar/ABC,
distributed by Apple iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation
film company meets the most successful family media company
meets the most successful new media device, the iPod. Sounds
like the happiest place on Earth to us. As the largest individual
stockholder, Steve Jobs may be the prime candidate for the
new Chairman of the Board. Laura Martin, CFA, of Soleil
Media Research Analysts, picks Disney and News Corp. as
the media large caps with the "highest option value."
Soleil also puts Google's value, based upon this same metrics,
at $362/share.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
|
$82.70
|
$100.20
$75.58
|
+512%
|
|
The
FDA Priority Review of Herceptin for treatment in early-stage
breast cancer has been extended to November, 2006 (or 90
days from 8.17.06). Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term
portfolio. DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately
eliminate the need for chemotherapy! Impatient investors
who demand to have their DNA now run the risk of losing
value if there is any report that casts DNA's drugs in a
negative light. Biotechnology is a volatile sector. Popular
#2 biotechnology company with lots of pipeline drugs, but
priced accordingly. P/E: 54.20.
|
|
Google
(Green)
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$401.90
|
$475.11
$273.35
|
+372%
|
|
Google
joined the S&P 500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold
for your long-term portfolio. Buy in at a better price.
Soleil Media Research Analysts put Google's value, based
upon forward-looking revenue metrics, at $362/share.
If you've quadrupled your money, profit taking and capital
gains are attractive these days. Announced 4Q earnings on
1.31.06. Missed expectations, and investors panicked
(as we'd warned they would). Google shares sank 12 percent
in after-hours trading to $379.00, losing roughly $15.3
billion from their $128 billion market capitalization. Google
dropped as low as $344.20 on 2.13.06. Very volatile, which
makes for profitable "trading around the core."
High price and high P/E of 59.
|
|
Krispy
Kreme
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
|
$8.10
|
$12.11
$4.40
|
-20.7%
|
|
Have
you visited the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen
Krispy Kreme doughnuts in the pastry case? A survey of just
a few shops revealed that the goods are selling great, and
reflects well on the new management team's commitment to
bringing in the dough to satisfy the sweet tooth of investors.
KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao, the Phillipines,
Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. In turnaround mode, and
trading at 5 year lows, though things have sweetened up
since KKD hired Kraft Foods veteran Daryl Brewster as president
and chief executive in March 2006. Taken off S&P Midcap
400 effective 10.27.05. The Company expects to report a
net loss for the first two quarters of fiscal 2007. Hired
the former general counsel from Winston-Salem-based Reynolds
American Inc. (NYSE: RAI), Charles A. "Chuck" Blixt, 55,
to serve as its top lawyer. Average weekly sales increased
8 percent in company-owned stores and 5 percent system wide,
according to Krispy Kreme's sales report on 9.12.06.
|
|
Las
Vegas Sands Corp.
Read
Vol. 2, Iss. 7
The
Venetian, Sands Macao
(1st
mover advantage in China's Vegas!!)
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
LVS
|
$37.43
|
$67.717
|
$73.13
$29.08
|
+81%
|
|
On
Aug. 8, the Venetian and Southwest announced a "Bags
to Go" program, which allows Venetian guests to avoid
the 3-hour wait at the airport, and have their bags transported
to the airport and checked in for them. (Forward-thinking
action on the part of both companies; first to embrace this
service!) Major growth stock, which means that the 52.90
P/E is high for buyers, but not necessarily for holders
of the stock (and further upside potential means that a
sell now may be pre-mature). The Venetian, The Palazzo (2Q
?07), The Sands Macao, The Venetian Macao (1Q ?07). 97%
occupancy rates at the Venetian. Las Vegas Sands Corp. is
also making deals with other Macao hotels to manage their
casinos and show rooms, including the Four Seasons, Intercontinental
Hotel, Holiday Inn, Far East's Cosmopolitan and Dorsett,
Shangri-La Hotel Macau and the Traders Hotel Macau, all
on the Cotai Strip in Macao, "Asia's Las Vegas."
Sands Macao is now the largest casino in the world with
740 table games. "The opening of The Venetian Macao
next year will mark the presence of the first true Las Vegas-style
Integrated Resort in Macao and will be followed by the opening
of the rest of the Cotai Strip(TM) -- which will provide
visitors an experience not replicated anywhere else in Asia,"
according to Bradley Stone, EVP. 2Q results on 8.2.06: Net
revenue for the second quarter of 2006 increased 29.6% to
$517.0 million compared to $398.8 million in the prior year's
quarter. Net income was $109.3 million, over $86.4 million
a year ago. Developing Singapore's first Integrated Resort,
The Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which will serve the
important South Asian marketplace, including India.
|
|
NetGear
RISK:
MEDIUM
Trading
in mid-range. Growth company. Volatile share price.
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$20.54
|
$25.73
$12.96
|
+65%
|
|
Watch
Natalie
Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com
Video Network Q&A with Patrick
Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won
the Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on
6.16.06), NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for
the 2nd year), and NetGear was awarded Best Buy's
Bravo Award for Business Excellence. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi
phone is available for pre-order online for a price of $249.99.
Skype currently has 100 million registered users, according
to the NetGear press release, and the NetGear phone is the
first Skype Wifi phone. An October report from Jupiter Research
predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe
to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by
2010. Judges from the IT Industry and CRN readers rated
NETGEAR Best in Service and Support among crowded networking
category that included companies worldwide with both voice
and data legacies in Dec. 2005. 2Q earnings on 7.27.06:
$130.7 million in revenue, +21.5% from a year ago, and 2.7%
higher than last quarter. Net income was $9.9 million +18.1%
from a year ago. According to CEO Patrick Lo, NetGear has
58 new products. CFO Jonathan Mather is leaving on 10.31.06
to pursue other opportunities closer to his home base in
Southern California, according to the company press release.
A replacement is being searched for, and a smooth transition
is anticipated.
|
|
News
Corp.
Vol.
2, iss. 10
Owns
Fox, MySpace and DirecTv.
Dividends
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
NWS.A
|
$15.88
|
$19.35
|
$19.71
$13.94
|
+22%
|
|
Read
my vol. 3, iss. 9 article, "eBay's
Skype Outpaces News Corp's
MySpace, with 113 million registered users." As Rupert
Murdoch noted in the last News Corp. earnings call, "One
out of four people in America are interacting with [MySpace]
content and services. To have achieved this in just one
year is remarkable." The Google/Myspace deal gives News
Corp. $900 million over the next few years, and is just
the tip of the iceberg, according to COO Peter Chernin.
MySpace is 2nd in page views online, behind Yahoo!
and 6th in ranking, according to Comscore Media
Metrix, which should start translating into a major jump
in ad revenue this year, especially since MySpace's core
demographic is the coveted 16-34 year olds. MySpace is now
a Top 10 Global Internet Brand with over 100 million registered
users, making it the 2nd fastest growing Internet site in
the world. (Skype is #1!) Media is in favor for 2006, according
to Smith Barney and Soleil Media research analysts. Mobizzo,
Fox's mobile network, which pioneered text voting on American
Idol, launched on 2.27.06, and will have micro-pay downloads
of films and TV (including Napoleon Dynamite, the
Fox cult film), games music and more. $59.58 billion market
cap on sales of $24.65 billion, vs. Google's $119 billion
MC on sales of $6.1 billion. 3Q revenues (5.10.06) increased
to $6.2 Billion; net income more than doubled, to $820 Million.
Rupert Murdoch has some talented, innovative leaders under
his aegis, and they are hitting home profits. News Corp.
has completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program
initiated last June, and increased the stock buyback program
to $6.0 billion. "This $3.0 billion step up clearly
reinforces our view that repurchases of News Corporation
shares are among the best uses of our cash in today's environment,"
according to Rupert.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$8.72
|
$9.25
$3.90
|
+384%
|
|
It
was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute Opsware's
products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate
on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's
Network Automation System, which sent a rocket through Opsware's
share price. Announced that Q2 revenue grew to $25.1 million,
up 78% year-over-year, 08.24.2006. GAAP net loss in the
second quarter was $(3.8) million or $(0.04) per share,
but non-GAAP was $1 million PROFIT!! The company raised
its full year revenue expectation to $102 million. "We
reached the key milestone of non-GAAP profitability," said
Ben Horowitz, president and CEO of Opsware Inc. "During
Q2 we also shipped the Opsware System 6 suite, the most
important release in our company's history." CFO Sharlene
Abrams resigned on 7.12.06. She will continue through Oct.
31 to aid a smooth transition to new CFO David F. Conte.
Ms. Abrams is under SEC investigation for handling of options
at her prior company, Mercury Interactive.
|
|
OSI
Pharmaceuticals
Trading
near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's
2005 Company of the Year 2005. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
RISK:
MEDIUM/HIGH
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$63.59
|
$36.66
|
$38.17
$20.81
|
-42.3%
|
|
Reported
total 2Q revenues of $102.0 million for the three months
ended June 30, 2006, an increase of $67.3 million (or 194%)
compared to revenues of $34.6 million for the same period
last year. Net loss of $319.9 million (or $5.62 per share)
included a one-time estimated impairment charge of $319
million related to the goodwill acquired in connection with
the November, 2005 acquisition of Eyetech Pharmaceuticals,
Inc. Morgan Stanley's Steven Harr has raised the target
price to $42 for OSIP. Harr anticipates about $1.3 million
in 2006 royalties for OSIP's Diabetes drug, with royalties
expanding to about $43.8 million by 2010 (source: AP). Genetic
based "cancer pill." 1st and only of
its kind. FDA-Approved Tarceva for lung cancer November
2004. Canadian regulators approved Tarceva on 7.13.05. European
approval granted on 9.21.04. Switzerland approved Tarceva
in March 2005. FDA approved Tarceva for use with pancreatic
patients on 9.13.05. Submitted new drug application to Japanese
FDA on 4.17.06. Partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP
is now testing Tarceva as an application for other cancers,
including lung cancerÉ 2Q06 Earnings: OSIP reported total
revenues of $102.0 million for the three months ended June
30, 2006, an increase of $67.3 million (or 194%) compared
to revenues of $34.6 million for the same period last year.
Revenues increased $164.7 million (or 307%) to $218.4 million
for the six months ended June 30, 2006 compared to revenue
of $53.7 million for the same period last year, primarily
due to WW sales of Tarceva and the addition of Macugen revenue.
The Company reported a net loss of $319.9 million (or $5.62
per share) for three months ended June 30, 2006, compared
with a net loss of $24.5 million a year ago. This included
a one-time estimated impairment charge of $319 million related
to the acquisition of Eyetech Pharmaceuticals.
|
|
RELM
wireless
10.70
P/E
Micro
Cap
88.73
Million
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
RWC
|
$7.35
|
$7.89
|
$11.70
$1.90
|
+5%
|
|
2Q
sales increased 34.1% to approximately $8.6 million from
$6.4 million for the same quarter last year. Net income
was approximately $1.1 million, or $0.08 per diluted share,
compared to net income of approximately $0.5 million, or
$0.04 per diluted share a year ago. RELM dropped in early
May on heavy institutional investor selling (manic hedge
funds), but has added back gains of 20% in under 20 days
(price: $5.96 on 6.28.06). Added to the Russell Microcap
Index on 6.30.06. RELM Wireless Corporation RWC announced
on 5.18.06 that it has received orders from a federal government
agency valued at $2.3 million. Of this total, $1.5 million
was for digital P25-compliant radio products. The company
expects to ship these orders in the second quarter of 2006.
According to Feltl & Co. analyst Richard Ryan, RELM
has just 1% share of a domestic market worth $1.9 billion
(and the global market is eight times larger), so there
is plenty of room for growth. Coverage on MoneyCentral.msn.com
on 1.18.06 means it might come up on more investors? radars.
In addition to providing communications for national security
needs, RELM can actively address communications needs at
hazardous substance facilities such as oil refineries, mines
and chemical plants. The United States Postal Service extended
its exclusive contract with RELM Wireless on 7.13.2006.
RELM announced on 9.27 that it has received orders from
multiple government agencies valued at $5.1 million.
|
|
Rio
Tinto (ADR)
Based
in England
DIVIDENDS!
See
issue 48
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
RTP
|
$89.60
|
$192.18
|
$253.33
$114.90
|
+114%
|
|
Building
permits are down worldwide, and there are reports that China
is pulling back on it's rapid construction expansion. Additionally,
there are currency considerations in Australia, where Rio
Tinto does a great deal of its business. Rio Tinto has definitely
been the star of the metals sector since we first featured
the company, back in August of 2004, but there is no doubt
that a lot of the demand for copper and metals was tied
to the low interest rates in the US (fueling construction)
and the pro-expansion policies in China. With both of those
reversing, it seems like the high and the thrill may be
nearing their peaks. Since we've got the year-end Santa
rally going, since CEO Leigh Clifford has been hitting CNBC
and Bloomberg TV screens, and since Rio Tinto does its earnings
on a bi-annual basis in December, it doesn't hurt to maximize
gains, and wait for the optimum moment to take profits.
Look for this company to be taken off this Hot List before
the end of the year, at its peakÉ
|
|
Sirius
$6.3
Bil Market Cap
RISK:
MEDIUM
|
No
|
SIRI
|
$6.00
|
$3.97
|
$7.98
$3.60
|
-33.8%
|
|
8.
1.06
2Q 2006 Earnings Report: Revenue tripled to $150 Million
from a year ago, and Sirius ended the quarter with 4,678,207
subscribers, the 3rd quarter it has led XM with new subscriber
adds. Loss was -$237.8 million, or ($0.17) per share, which
is half the net loss of 1Q. Karmazin says there will be
a handheld Satellite Radio, called Stiletto, launched by
the end of summer (in time for Xmas season). Sirius is on
track to finish the year strong with over 6.2 million subscribers,
yet the share price is 50% off of its 52-week high. XM Satellite
Radio ended 2005 with 5.9 million subscribers. Originally
XM projected 9 million by year's end, but the company has
cut its subscriber year-end forecast. XM radio is installed
in GM cars; GM is losing market share and having biz cash
flow issues. Could impact XM. Mercedes just agreed to make
SIRI standard on SL and CL models for 2007. Nielsen//NetRatings
report said the online traffic to Sirius' grew 188%, to
1.9 million in March 2006 from 666,000 unique visitors in
the year-ago period. That beats XMSR traffic, which turned
in 1.69 million in unique visitors in March. Sirius? Stiletto
100 is being sold for $350/unit. It is a Wi-Fi handheld
SR unit that is similar to the Apple iPod, with additional
features. Sirius says that "most" music companies
have agreed not to sue them. The music industry wants royalties
because the device does allow for storing and replaying
songs without paying for them. Could this be THE holiday
gift for guys?
|
|
Sohu
(Chinese Co. ADR)
918.7
Mil Market Cap
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$21.85
|
$29.43
$14.25
|
+25%
|
|
Completed
a $15 million share buyback program on 8.2.06. Stock buyback
program up to $30 million announced on 7.25.06. Beat earnings
by posting 19 cents/share ($7.17 million in profit) and
$34.1 million in revenue. 2Q revenues were up 35% based
on strong World Cup ads, while profit increased 1%. On 6.12.06,
Sohu entered into a multi-year advertising agreement with
leading online retailer, Joyo.com (owned by Amazon). 2006
revenues were increased by Sohu's exclusive right to 2006
FIFA World Cup online video content, according to Chairman
and CEO Dr. Charles Zhang. "China Internet is the most dynamic
industry within the world's fastest-growing major economy,
in our analysis," according to Michael Tieu, a Brean Murray
Carret & Co. analyst. Tieu noted that while China's
online advertising market is a rounding error of that of
the United States, its ad sales are forecast to grow 40%
a year to about $3 billion in 2010. See NataliePace.com
ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and volume 2, issue 9 for feature
articles on Sohu. Financial Times ranked Sohu in
the Top 10 Chinese Global Corporate Brands on 9.6.05 (6
days after our first feature article). Sohu was selected
as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS)
for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. See Sohu CEO in an exclusive
interview on the Forbes.com Video Network by typing in Natalie
Pace on the seach box at Forbes.com. Could be some bumps
in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which
should ultimately be worth it, with China still growing
at over 9% in real GDP per year.
|
|
SunTech
Holdings Co. Ltd (Green & Chinese Co. ADR)
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
|
--
|
$45.95
$19.00
|
--
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar
energy.
|
|
T.
Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See
vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$28.96
|
$30.15
$12.00
|
+40%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why
Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to
diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the
emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are
stalling in economic growth.
|
|
Time-Warner
(owns
AOL)
|
No
|
TWX
|
$16.76
|
$18.14
|
$19.00
$15.70
|
+8%
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp.'s
MySpace" for a report card that features Time-Warner.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth, which
is trading at a value. AOL and Time-Warner have finally
figured out how to work together, and Chairman & CEO
Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn.
After a series of blunders, could it be TWX's time to shine?
|
|
U.S.
Gold
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
USGL
|
$5.05
|
$4.95
|
$10.30
$.35
|
flat
|
|
See
the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in
NataliePace.com ezine, vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear
Natalie
Pace's Q&A with Rob McEWen
on the Forbes.com Video Network. This is a gold exploration
company that is being traded off the big boards. If the
choice is between this and the craps table, you might have
better odds here (and more fun if McEwen strikes gold.)
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time. They
are digging to find a new reserve. U.S. Gold closed the
private placement of 16,700,000 subscription receipts at
a price of US $4.50 for aggregate gross proceeds of US $75.15
million on Feb. 22, 2006. 33.3 million shares outstanding,
with a market capitalization of US $239.7 million. U.S.
Gold Receives Escrowed Funds $35,665,596 net of commissions.
A company spokesperson reported in August that U.S. Gold
is close to listing on the TSX (Toronto's small board) and
the NYSE's ARCA Stock Exchange.
Listings typically have a positive effect on share price.
Began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under
the symbol UXG, on 8.29.06.
Full
Disclosure: I own stock in U.S. Gold.
|
|
Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio (Green ETF)
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
--
|
$24.08
$14.97
|
--
|
|
See
vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on solar
energy. This could be a good add to your longterm portfolio.
The holdings in this ETF get managed quite well. The problem
is that most investors don't know that, and may take your
stock up and down on the fluctuations of lesser managed
companies and ETFsÉ If you're in it for the long term and
can take the volatility, this ETF should pay off between
now and 2008.
|
Sony and Sunoco
both had great runs for the list! LifeCell posted over 180% gains
before being added to the Cooling Off Stocks list.
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$11.25
|
$23.60
|
$41.66
$15.01
|
+110%
|
|
Gold
dropped to $573/$580 range on 9.15.06 causing losses for
most gold mining stocks. Any troubles in the already tight
metals market, or investor panic over inflation and terrorism
could send gold prices even higher than they currently are
(which has been happening all year). This has traditionally
been one of the great gold companies, but there is an executive
battle brewing between the largest individual shareholder,
Rob McEwen, and the current management team. McEwen accuses
Goldcorp's directors and management of "tyranny,"
saying that he opposed the Glamis merger. McEwen is threatening
to sue Goldcorp's management and board. According to the
AP, Ian Telfer, Goldcorp's current CEO, dismisses McEwen's
claims that shareholders are against the deal, saying that
he polled 100 of GG's top shareholders and McEwen was the
only one opposed to the deal. Telfer expects the acquisition
of Glamis Gold to close in 5 weeks. Two things raise concern
at this company. 1) No one wins in a war. 2) Rapid growth
requires very adept management. Is Ian Telfer up to the
task? How adept is he if he has his largest individual shareholder
is poised to file papers in court tomorrow (according to
a McEwen spokesperson)? We'll keep you posted, but in the
meantime, if you've already doubled your money, that's a
great profit. Doesn't hurt to look into selling and taking
your profits, before things get crazier. We'll keep the
company on this hot list for now because the season still
feels ripe for an increase in gold prices, which could push
the stock up further.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Great
Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching
and might be worth buying in on opportunity (i.e. at a better
price), if you believe the news on future potential. There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when featured
|
Price
9.1.06
|
Year
High
Year
Low
|
Losses
since original feature
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
eBAY
|
$28.15
|
$27.47
|
$47.86
$22.83
|
-2.4%
|
|
See
the article, "eBay's Skype Outpaces News Corp's MySpace,"
in volume 3, issue 9. eBay has been beaten up by analysts,
but still has HUGE growth potential. However, 38.80 P/E
may still feel rich to investors for such a large-cap company
that is expanding in ways that people can't figure out initially.
(eBay owns PayPal and Skype VOIP.) Additionally, Skype's
new products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones in particular and associated
hardware) are hitting the shelves in time for Christmas
and will not likely had a significant chunk to the eBay
bottom line until the first quarter of 2007. Wait for fall
(Sept./Oct.) - perhaps literally - to see if value is more
attractive. Has everyone failed to include the potential
upside of Skype? We'll be investigating this and more in
upcoming articles. Stay tuned.
|
|
Citigroup
|
No
|
C
|
$49.37
|
$49.49
|
$50.72
$43.83
|
flat
|
|
Refer
to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details
on Citigroup's appeal. Rising interest rates and the current
M&A mania are positive for Citigroup, but interest rate
hikes, combined with high oil prices and the summer doldrums,
are tough on the markets. Price: 6.19.06 = $47.78É The Feds
terminated their enforcement action against Citigroup on
6.26.06. ($48.10 on 8.14.06) We'll look to add Citigroup
to the Hot News List at the end of October, or anytime that
the markets have a rough day.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks (that may be in Profit-Taking Range).
Note: We may look to add some of these companies to our Hot News
list again, if the price point should become attractive and if
the outlook for the company improves. The companies listed in
bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or
may be currently poised for a continued decline in value. Investors
who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and
consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses,
short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping
the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (The stocks on this chart are expected to go
down in price.)
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
9.1.06
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Airlines
|
No
|
AMR
|
$24.05
|
$24.20
|
$29.32
$10.00
|
flat
|
|
Don't
buy into the hype that airlines are finally getting profitable;
one good quarter does not erase five years of multi-billions
in losses and legacy costs, like pension and health plans,
that are not reported in earnings reports. Read the article,
"$72 Oil Will Sink Airlines," in vol. 3, issue
7. American Airlines has such a strong brand, and so few
investors are aware of the depth of their debt, that AMR
tends to run up on any good news in the sector. It's not
a slam-dunk short or put. 2Q earnings were upbeat in July
for a lot of airlines, which beat analyst earnings expectations.
2Q net profit, issued on 7.19, was $291 million for the
second quarter of 2006. "We are pleased to have earned a
quarterly profit -- just our second in the last 22 quarters
without the benefit of special items," said AMR Chairman
and CEO Gerard Arpey. "Our performance indicates very clearly
that we are on the right track, but also demonstrates --
just as clearly -- that we have more work to do to return
our company to financial health." 82.6% load factor in the
2nd quarter. In June, American announced the
AAdvance Bag Check(SM) program that allows passengers on
cruise ships, at hotels and at convention centers to drop
off their luggage for American flights at select remote
locations.
|
|
Apple Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$64.63
|
$74.86
|
$86.40
$45.26
|
+14.6%
|
|
Apple missed the SEC deadline for filing its 2Q earnings (ended 7.1.06), due to a SEC investigation into backdated stock option grants. NASDAQ responded by sending a letter reminding Apple that the company was not in compliance with listing requirements. Apple has requested a hearing, which basically buys them time and delays delisting, while they settle the issue with the SEC and file the report. Apple has said that they may have to restate earnings dating back to Sept. 2002, but has not released any other information with regard to the issue, since the request for a hearing with NASDAQ back on 8.11.06. There is a halo effect going on with Apple products and sales, which is being dimmed, at least temporarily, with the SEC investigation. Will Sirius? Satellite Radio handheld device cut into Apple iPod sales this Xmas? FYI: Other companies have fired board members and C-level executives associated with stock options problems, including Verisign and Opsware. This could be VERY significant if the problems are associated with the executive suite, particularly with Jobs himself. With 29/70 Price to Earnings ratio, investors who have counted on forward momentum could be easily frightened off to sell. Google CEO Eric Schmidt just joined the Apple board or directors. Very positive for the long term, although the current SEC bump could present a better buying opportunity in the near future. We?ll keep a close on this between now and November 11, 2006.
|
|
General Motors
|
Yes
|
GM
|
$32.35
|
$33.50
|
$37.34
$18.33
|
+3.5%
|
|
See
the article Faded Blue Chips in vol. 3, issue 8. According
to Standard and Poor's Report on Pension Plans (6.06), GM
owes -$69.258 billion in pensions and other post employment
benefits (OPEB). General Motors' market capitalization is
$18.1 billion, and last year the company lost over $10.95
billion. GM announced $15.2 billion reduction in its pension
and health care obligations on August 8, 2006, which resulted
in a small rally for the stock today. Problem is, GM was
almost $70 billion underfunded for its pension and health
care obligations, which means it still owes over $46 billion,
or 2 1/2 times the value of the company.
Full
Disclosure: I own short positions in GM.
|
|
ImClone
(makers
of Erbitux)
See
volume 2, issue 6 for a feature article
Trading
near 52 week low.
|
No
|
IMCL
|
$34.48
|
$27.68
|
$42.75
$29.51
|
-19.7%
|
|
Forced
to pay the IRS $32 million to settle an employment audit
(3.16.06). Hired investment bank Lazard LLC to shop the
company to suitors and appointed board member Joseph L.
Fischer as interim CEO, but, after 8 months, failed to find
a buyer at an acceptable price. Is now looking to remain
independent and hire a new CEO, but had to add Carl Icahn
and two cronies to slate of Board directors seeking approval
at the September 22, 2006 Annual Shareholder's Meeting.
Results from study are impressive and the EU commission
just received a positive opinion from their committee, on
2.23.06, to grant approval in Europe. New panitumumab
drug from Amgen is predicted to gain market share of colorectal
cancer in about three to four years, though it is not expected
to gain approval and product launch before 3Q 2006. Swissmedic,
the Swiss agency for therapeutic products, approved Erbitux
for head and neck cancer on 12.22.05. IMC-11F8, a new drug
that blocks the activation of epidermal growth factor receptor,
should have its clinical trial enrolled by the 2nd
half of this year. IMClone just won the right to market
outside the US and Canada in an arbitration with Merck.
Erbitux is one of the most expensive and promising cancer
drugs available. Pressure on bringing the price of Erbitux
more in line with the other gene-based cancer treatments
could be forthcoming, further affecting the bottom line.
|
|
KB
Home
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$44.08
|
$81.99
$37.89
|
-25.2%
|
|
Read
the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top
Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout
sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home
prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts
and rising inventory. Beazer and KB Home have cut their
earning's forecasts twice since July 2006.
|
|
LifeCell
Vol.
1, iss. 55
|
No
|
LIFC
|
$27.66
|
$32.19
|
$32.60
$15.11
|
+16%
|
|
The FDA issued a warning on "unscreened human tissue" on 10.26.05. LifeCell reported a recall of products, and took a charge of $1.4 million in 3Q '05 to reflect the recall. LifeCell's product is in high demand and sales are growing, however the story on some of the unscreened and untested tissue it received from Biomedical Tissue Services is not over. Lawsuits have been filed by some plaintiffs who unknowingly received products from Biomedical Tissue services and the impact of those lawsuits is still largely unknown. According to the Associated Press, the FDA shut down BMT for not screening the tissue for communicable diseases, among other violations. $15.5 million in insider sales by CEO, CFO and controller in last 12 months, most recent sales occurred in March ?06. 2Q: Product revenues for the second quarter were $35.7 million, up 60%, compared to $22.3 million reported for the same period in 2005. AlloDerm(R) Regenerative Tissue Matrix, increased 73% to $30.3 million from $17.6 million a year ago. LifeCell has a great product in high demand, but the potential fallout of the unscreened human tissue could be more than most $688 million companies can take.
|
|
Toll
Brothers
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$28.30
|
$46.39
$22.22
|
-26%
|
|
Read
the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top
Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout
sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home
prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts
and rising inventory. Beazer and KB Home have cut their
earning's forecasts twice since July 2006.
|
|
Verisign,
Cool
List eff. 8.1.06
|
No
|
VRSN
|
$18.00
|
$20.64
|
$36.09
$17.02
|
+14.6%
|
|
SEC
is reportedly investigating for handling of stock options
(possible back dating). Verisign admitted that they are
doing an audit into the past, which may affect their earnings
and possible restatement of earnings. On Aug. 3, Verisign
announced the resignation of two of the three board members
who served on its compensation committee, Len J. Lauer and
Gregory L. Reyes. Selling Jamba ring tones to News Corp.
for $188 million, two years after buying it for $273 million,
per Associated Press.
|
|
Yahoo
Vol.
2, iss. 10
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$33.84
|
$24.88
|
$43.66
$24.91
|
-26.5%
|
|
Yahoo
is the #1 web site, with more traffic, page views and time
online than MSN or Google. The stock has been beaten up,
and is trading near a 52-week low. The reason we aren't
expecting a turnaround at this time is that the investment
arm of Yahoo had been a contributing revenue source for
Yahoo earlier in the year, and consistently had calls on
the stock to perform better. With worse performance, this
could have a negative impact. Additionally, there are new
kids on the block who are making alliances and strong gains,
including MySpace/Google, Apple/Google and the re-emergence
of AOL as a giveaway. Consensus insider selling going on
since May to the tune of $43 Million. AND Yahoo just announced,
on 9.19.06, that ad sales were slowing and could impact
3Q earnings. OUCH. Earnings should be released around 10.18.06.
We'll keep you posted, but all signs are toward more cooling
of Yahoo stock.
|
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
are a media and information center. This article is intended to
educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to
be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and/or
consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before
buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals
and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however Women's Investment Network, LLC does not
warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our
judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to
change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
Oprah's First Women's
Conference in Boston!
Oprah's
First Women's Conference in Boston!
Working
Mother's Top 100 Companies for Mothers List!
 |
Caption:
Oprah and XM Satellite Radio CEO Hugh Panero Ringing the opening
bell at NASDAQ
Photo Credit: Rob Tannenbaum, NASDAQ |
Saturday,
October 7th, 2006
8:00AM through
7:00PM. Oprah's
O! You Conference, Boston, MA.
Join O! editor-at-large
Gayle King, keynote speaker Suze Orman and other experts for a
day of dreaming big, getting fit (financially, emotionally and
physically) and fun! $100 per person.
In addition
to being the Queen of daytime television, Oprah has now crowned
her position as the top earner at XM
Satellite Radio. The much- anticipated "Oprah
& Friends" radio channel has attracted thirteen new, high- profile advertisers for XM, including Acuvue, Crown Publishing, Dove, GE, Iams, JC Penney, Jenny Craig, SlimFast, Rozerum, Snapple, Splenda, Target, and Warners TrueFit. "In terms of ad sales, this is XM's most successful channel launch ever," according to D. Scott Karnedy, senior vice president, sales and marketing solutions, XM Satellite Radio.
Wednesday,
October 18th, 2006
NYC
Gala! Working Mother: Top 100 Companies
Join Working
Mother for a 3-day Work Life Congress, beginning on
Monday, October 16th, which culminates in their wonderful
GALA Awards Dinner honoring the 100
Best Companies for Working Mothers. Register Now.
Space is limited for this VERY popular event.
Celebrate
the 21st birthday of the competition that changed the culture
of American business. According to Working
Mother's website, "Programs we could only
imagine a few years agoÑ16 months of maternity leave, free backup
care, phase-back programs, $10,000 in adoption reimbursementÑare
now a reality at many of our Working
Mother 100 Best Companies. In selecting this year's
winners, we gave special weight to leave policies, because it's
critical for a mother to be able to stay home as long as possible
with her newborn without suffering professionally." These
family-friendly employers of choice for working mothers are measured
and scored by the following seven areas: workforce profile, compensation,
child care, flexibility, time off and leaves, family-friendly
programs and company culture.
Check
the Calendar section of NataliePace.com frequently for a listing
of Important Events like these, including Chats, Galas, Conferences
and more. Learn how to maximize your NataliePace.com subscription.
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VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website,
seminars, radio, television and print partners. GOAL:
To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete
picture of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time,
by valuing firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations
of the executive team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded
company with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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