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ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.4 Issue 10 October 1st, 2007
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"You're
going to start seeing solar everywhere - integrated into buildings,
in parking lots, even on cars."
Robert Noble,
founder and CEO, Envision Solar
Commenting on the wildly successful
September 2007 Solar Power Conference
in Long Beach, California.
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Solar Giants Contract a Small Hawaiian Company
For Silicon.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
an updated Solar
and Silicon Stock Report Card.
Hoku Scientific
(NASDAQ: Hoku) contracts to become the polysilicon supplier to Suntech,
Sanyo and Solar-Fabrik.
 |
Dustin
Shindo Chairman, President and CEO Hoku Scientific
photo credit: © 2007, The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. |
Solar is all
the rage. Last week's Solar Power Conference attracted over 12,500
attendees to Long Beach, California. Next year's conference is likely
to be three times as large, according to Robert L. Noble, the CEO
and founder of Envision Solar, who attended the event. According
to Mr. Noble, "You're going to start seeing solar everywhere
- integrated into buildings, in parking lots, even on cars."
Solar is hot,
hot, hot, which is why solar and alternative energy have been a
constant theme this year in my ezine, as well as one of the top-performing
industries on Wall Street. Clean energy earned the highest gains
in the first quarter of 2007, and the 3rd highest in
the second quarter, behind energy and technology. And perhaps the
hottest sub-segment of solar is silicon manufacturing, of which
MEMC Electronics, has been a top performer, with over 67% gains
in share price since last November, when it was added to my Hot
News list.
But with over
200 companies exhibiting at the solar conference, which are the
stars? Which will capture market share, and which will bite the
dust? Many experts still believe that SunPower has the superior
product, and indeed Sunpower's solar panels were the panels of choice
for the winners of 2005's Solar Decathlon, which is probably also
why SunPower has one of the highest share prices (by P/E) in the
industry, at 367.60. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see SunPower
reign supreme again in this year's Solar
Decathlon, which will be exhibited in Washington D.C.
on the National Mall from October 12 - 20, 2007.
Solar energy
is no secret on Wall Street, and it's hard to find something exciting
that is trading for a reasonable price. Most of the companies listed
on the attached Solar
Report Card, which includes two silicon manufacturers -
Hoku Scientific and MEMC Electronics - are trading at or near their
52-week high.
Does the revenue
growth support expensive price to earnings ratios, like SunPower's
367 P/E and First Solar's 137 P/E? Sunpower's sales were up 218%
in the 2nd quarter of 2007 over the year prior - to revenues
of $173.8 million. Suntech was up 147% to $317.4 million, while
First Solar posted revenue gains of 177%, to $77.2 million. Evergreen
Solar is the only solar energy company to have lower revenue in
2007 than in the year prior (likely due to silicon supply problems).
The company reported $15.4 million for the 2nd quarter
of 2007, compared to revenue of $22 million in the same quarter
2006.
As you can see,
any of these companies (except Evergreen) are likely to soar for
the coming years, and your best bet might be a basket of solar stocks
for your own personal alternative energy fund - at a lower price
point. I'd have SunPower, First Solar, Suntech, MEMC Electronics
and Trina on a shopping list, instead of buying them at full price
right now. I still like SunPower best overall - for value, sales,
growth, vision, CEO credibility, China's commitment to solar energy,
secured silicon supply and more! However, when a share price can
swing between $23 and $45 (as Suntech did) or $26 and $87 (like
SunPower did) in one year, I'd take my chances on a future buying
opportunity.
Yes, even when
you have a hot sector, the general market concerns - like subprime
- can knock the entire group into buying range. Even if buying range
is more likely to happen next year, patient investors are always
rewarded with better gains than the shoot-from-the-hip investor.
(The Santa Rally may be very kind to those who already hold positions
in solar.) You can read more about Suntech and SunPower in the archived
ezines, vol. 4, issue 1 and vol. 3, issue 10.
One other thing
to consider in any explosive sector is that Innovation is really
the "it" factor. One disruptive breakthrough will give
a company ten times the customers. A silicon supply problem (as
was experienced by Evergreen) can sideline a former leader. So,
if you do choose to invest in a company in this sector, monitor
the news and sniff out potential concerns - before it becomes a
headline on a major portal. How? Read the quarterly earnings reports
and any other communication that the company sends out to investors
thoroughly. This industry will require a lot more monitoring than
your Coca-Cola stock. Take it seriously!
First Solar
has lofty goals of reducing their costs by 40-50% before 2010, but
if they were assured of achieving such a colossal market advantage,
would insiders be dumping $399 million worth of shares? You can't
rely completely on insider selling to tell the full story, but if
you do see consensus insider buying or selling, that is a sign that
something is being discussed in the boardroom. Your favorite financial
website should have a handy link with insider selling activity that
is updated regularly. (Go to the NataliePace.com home page and scroll
down to the Company Research box to access a financial page on your
favorite stock.)
So, it's rare
to find a company that is still flying relatively under the radar
of investors, with a story as promising as Hoku Scientific. On June
13, 2007, Hoku inked a deal with Suntech Power Holdings (based out
of China) to build a polysilicon manufacturing center in Ohio and
supply the world's biggest solar energy company. "Securing a long-term
supply of polysilicon from Hoku will enable us to continue to expand
our manufacturing capacity and execute on Suntech's strategic plan,"
said Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO. "We look forward
to a strong and enduring business relationship with Hoku."
If the most
powerful solar CEO in the world has invited Hoku to his playground,
why haven't you heard of Hoku much before now? Well, the Hoku story
isn't exactly impressive. First the company is based out of Hawaii
- not exactly the business capital of the U.S. Secondly, Hoku's
got a very young CEO - Dustin Shindo - who, though determined and
full of vitality, steered the company somewhat recklessly toward
a largely failed focus on fuel cells -- which seems to be mostly
abandoned now in favor of solar energy. According to Hoku's 1st
quarter fiscal 2008 earnings report, "Based on discussions
with potential customers during fiscal 2007, the Company determined
that the potential for future fuel cell sales and revenue opportunities
were uncertain."
Dustin Shindo
has staffed his company with friends and family. His close friend
is Chief Technology Officer Karl M. Taft III. Shindo's younger brother
Ryan is Hoku's director of operations, and fellow University of
Washington Darryl Nakamoto is the company's CFO. Is this a liability?
Not according to Dustin Shindo, who says, "Everyone works their
hearts out, like a family. We're building something together."
But Hoku's shift
into solar and the milestones achieved in a relatively short period
of time are truly awe-inspiring. ShindoÔs team has raised $211 million,
from contracts with Sanyo, Suntech and Solar-Fabrik, to construct
and equip the Hoku polysilicon facility. The total costs of the
plant are expected to exceed $260 million, and Hoku intends to raise
the remaining construction costs through debt financing - something
that shouldn't be too difficult since he's got the weight of the
contracts with Sanyo, Suntech and Solar-Fabrik as collateral. The
City of Pocatello, Idaho has kicked in $25.9 million in real property
tax reimbursements for infrastructure improvements and up to $17
million in real property tax reimbursements based on employment
numbers.
These are serious
business dealings and amazing achievements for this young team that
is based out of a state better known for its Mai Tais and surfing
than its martinis and business lunches. Dustin Shindo and CTO Karl
Taft were joined at the groundbreaking ceremony in Pocatello, Idaho
by C.L. "Butch" Otter, the Governor of Idaho, Roger B. Madsen, Director,
Idaho Commerce & Labor, Roger Chase, Mayor, City of Pocatello,
and Larry Ghan, Chairman, Bannock County Commissioners. Even with
the prior fuel cell business, which didn't fare so well, Shindo
had a knack for securing marquise clientele, including the U.S.
Navy and Nissan.
SoÉ normally
I'd suspect that a 30-something CEO who lived in Hawaii and had
already failed to convert his core business into sales after six
years of trying was spending too much time at the beach. But in
this case, I think Hoku - which means star in Hawaiian and north
in Japanese -- is pointing to the Promised Land.
I've added Hoku
Scientific to the Hot News list this month. Note that this is a
very high risk investment, as Hoku is a small cap company (valued
at $162 million) with no sales to speak of. Polysilicon production
is not expected to begin until 2009, which means the share price
may be volatile in the meantime.
DISCLAIMER:
As of the printing of this ezine, Natalie Pace does not own shares
in Hoku. (She always purchases her personal shares in any company
at least three days AFTER articles are published. Check the Hot
News list for future updates on her holdings.)
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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Green
and Fab:
by Natalie
Pace.
Dream
Come True LivingHome. In Half the Time.
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| The
first Wired/LivingHomes gold LEEDS home, 4200 square feet. |
Last month,
Wired
and Living
Homes teamed up to build the first ever Wired
Home in Brentwood, California. Designed by one of the world's most
admired architects -- Ray Kappe, the founder of sci-arc
architecture school) -- the home is a marvel of innovation,
technology, warm modernist beauty and a coveted Gold LEED rating
for excellence in employing green building materials and standards
into the design. Perhaps the best part is that if the developers
get their way, you'll have a chance to have one just like it in
your neighborhood soon, for a lot less than this $4 million price
tag.
Editor's
Note: LEED, or Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, is
the industry standard for green building, and was developed by the
U.S. Green Building Council. The top rating is platinum, then gold,
silver and bronze.
Yes, Living
Homes is a leading pre-fab developer, so a version of this modern
wonder could be yours, too, no matter where you live. You can choose
from a number of design options, have the home built in a factory,
after which it will be shipped in modules and installed in just
one day (excluding the foundation preparation). The first Living
Homes construction went through without a glitch and was "dream-like,"
according to project architect Amy Sims. You can see a video of
its 8-hour on-site installation online at LivingHomes.net.
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| The
living room of the first prefab green LivingHome A platinum
LEEDS home. |
And if that
isn't enough to have you drooling with desire, the first Wired
Living Home will have a total completion time of just six to seven
months, from the start of the permit process to the last plug in
of the Wi-Fi network - which is about Å of the amount of time it
typically takes to build in Brentwood, California on a hillside.
Imagine the money you can save by having your dream home completed
in under six months, and the delight of not having to wire up your
own TIVO and Internet and iPods! Finally, someone has figured out
that those of us who'll pay double price at Whole Foods for prepared
organic food, would also like a convenient way to build and live
in the ultimate green, high tech home.
If you are one
of the first to own a LivingHome, chances are you'll pay more for
it than customers will in a few years (as is always the case with
new products), but you could also have a rare, valuable dwelling
that will outperform the marketplace well beyond your own lifetime.
The average cost today is $300 per square foot, not including the
foundation. A 2400 square foot home rings up to be $720,000. Not
exactly the price range you associate with a factory-built home.
However, when you consider that you are getting:
1. a Ray Kappe
design, which will be customized to your site
2. a LEEDS
rating (all kinds of perks there, including an expedited permit
process),
3. six
months or more savings on construction time,
4. top-shelf
cradle to grave green building materials,
5. almost
free utilities (from your solar-paneled roof-top shading),
6. completely
wired technology,
7. a beautiful
self-watering atrium (health benefits),
8. the
home of your dreams
9. reclaimed
water system (lower water bills)
10. AND
that yours will be one of the first homes of this hot new company,
the value and
price start looking more affordable.
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| LivingHomes
platinum LEEDS home, 2400 square feet Photo credit - Berg /
Divis Photography. |
LivingHomes
currently has completed two homes (including the Wired Home) and
has 14 additional homes under contract. So far, each new visionary
homeowner is actually participating in a Beta process that demands
a certain level of customization, which will not be available once
the company succeeds in becoming a strictly pre-fab business. (Don't
tell them that I suggested this to you. Please. They may stop taking
my phone calls.) They are interested in working with developers
on LivingHomes communities, as well.
So who is responsible
for making green construction easier and, at least in the future,
more affordable for the average person? The LivingHomes founder
and CEO, Steve Glenn, is a Lego fiend, an architecture-lover and
a man with a calling. Inspired by the quote, "the journey is
the reward," Steve Glenn decided that his latest foray into
business should contribute to a better world. As his reward, he
gets to live in the first Living Home, which will always have the
coveted title of being the world's first Platinum LEED rated home.
(Amy Sims, a LivingHomes project architect, confided to me that
having the home close to the office awarded them quite an edge in
the rating - something to consider when you are building your own
dream home as well. See the adjoining article for other Green Tips
from Amy.)
Could owning
the 16th Living Home be rewarding, and perhaps even lucrative,
even in a softening real estate landscape? Architecturally significant
homes are an added premium in the real estate marketplace, as is
"green," and, especially if the current softening cycle
continues, could be your competitive edge now and into the future.
According to Finn Kappe (Ray Kappe's son and a LivingHomes project
architect), "I actually think Living Homes is going to be unaffected.
The current environment might help us. We're not shooting for a
broad market."
Living Homes
has been capturing headlines across the nation, and the Wired
Home has been featured on the home page of Wired.com and in a full-page
ad in the magazine for the last six months (even though the home
is privately owned). This kind of publicity definitely increases
the level of interest in the home, which typically translates to
a premium on the price, regardless of which neighborhood you live
in. And those headlines are likely to continue well into the future.
The Eames Case Study Home, which was built between 1945 and 1949
in Pacific Palisades, California, is still frequently mentioned
in architectural books and media, as are other homes built by esteemed
architects doing cutting-edge design.
It's the new
world paradigm: visionary entrepreneurs like Steve Glenn satisfy
the consumer's needs and desires, the deeper fulfillment of the
soul, the world at large and the bottom line. And the outcome is
you get to own the most beautiful, technologically advanced home
on the block - without the headache of researching and building
it all on your own.
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Reduce Your Carbon Footprint!
by Natalie
Pace
10
Green Tips for Your Life and Home.
Living
Homes Project Architect Amy Sims, whose first LivingHomes project
earned the first LEED platinum rating in the world - the
highest green honor available - shares her wisdom on simple ways
to reduce the carbon footprint of your own lifestyle and home.
Even if you
cannot rush right out and order your own brand new Living Home,
you can go green in your own private sanctuary, with these tips
from LivingHomes project architect, Amy Sims.
- Cut
down on the commute. Whether you telecommute a day (or
more) a week, or can afford to relocate your offices closer to
home, this simple step eliminates more pollution, waste and fossil
fuel consumption than practically anything. According to Amy Sims,
"We got a lot of [LEED] points for the physical citing of
the lot." Other ways to cut down on commuting? Walk, bike
or bus. If you live near public transportation or within walking
distance of your favorite restaurants and errands, use leg-power
instead of gas.
- Use
overhangs and sunlight: Overhangs and shading can cool
your place down. Sunlight on a concrete slab can heat things up.
The LivingHomes prefabricated models have skylights in the bathrooms,
with shade screens that roll out to keep it from getting too hot
on sunny days. The solar panels on the rooftop garden acts as
a shading canopy, providing a beautiful, functional way to integrate
the panels into the construction.
- Cradle
to Grave Recycling: The materials used in the LivingHomes
were selected to be recycled on both ends of the life cycle. Amy
Sims selected old redwood, and other materials that started out
as something else, and then ensured that in the end, the materials
wouldn't end up in landfills. Two companies that specialize in
these kinds of products are: Ice
Stone countertops and Terra
Mai reclaimed woods from around the world.
- Try
a Solar Water Collector: Amy installed one on the roof
of her Living Home. Why not let the sun heat your water? The manufacturer
of the solar water collector on the Living Home is Apricus.
- Solar
Panels: In the first Living Home, solar panels provide
60-75% of the energy consumption of the home. Off the grid! Meaning
your energy is produced free of charge (once the solar panels
have paid for themselves). When you consider the price of the
panels, your investment should take about five to eight years
before you get to enjoy free energy - a small investment for the
lifetime of your home, and much better for our world.
- Solar
Panel Integration: Amy Sims chose solar panels from Schott
for her shade canopy because they have a beautiful glass underbelly.
Pugh
& Scarpa (architects) used solar panels for the
skin of the house in their Solar
Umbrella home. Whether you are buying a LivingHomes
prefab or adding on another floor or bedroom, integrating solar
panels doesn't mean just sticking them on the roof anymore.
The
Solar Umbrella House by Larry Scarpa
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| Photo
Credit: Marvin Rand, c/o Pugh + Scarpa Architects |
- Ask
for Green Products at your favorite home improvement store:
According to Amy, Home Depot has jumped on board to do more sustainable
products. They are committed to launching thousands of new "green"
products, and the company already offers some responsibly harvested
woods. Your city may have a home improvement store that specializes
in green. There is Living
Green, with locations in Culver City and Santa Barbara,
California. Environmental
Home Center is located in Seattle, Washington. EarthSource
Forest Products, located in the Bay Area of California,
specializes in green wood products. You can find more national
retailers and consumer information listed on the Green
Home Guide. And I encourage you to share your own
green building tips on the NataliePace.com Sharing
Wisdom bulletin board.
- Dual
Flush Toilets and Reclaimed Water Systems: Now there's
hope for your black thumb as well as your water bill! The LivingHomes
atrium is maintained using reclaimed water, which means you never
have to worry about over-watering, when to water and whether or
not you're killing your plants. In many metropolitan areas, clean
water is a precious commodity. Caroma
has an entire line of dual-flush toilets that work in hand with
these reclaimed water systems.
- LED
lighting: LED lights are up to three times as efficient
as fluorescent, according to Amy Sims. They also provide a nice,
warm illumination for the home. There are many options for LEDs
these days, so you may be able to find what you need at your local
home improvement store. Permlight
offers a good catalog of products online.
- Green
Vehicle: Whether you want to be the first to own a Tesla
Roadster, the world's first all electric sports car,
or just tool around town in your Xebra
(a whimsical design in a golf cart like vehicle), or load up your
sturdy Phoenix
Motor Cars electric sports utility truck, or make
a statement with a hybrid or hydrogen car, having solar panels
on your home means that you could be powering your vehicle with
the sun, instead of oil from the Middle East. The first Wired
Living Home boasts that the owners will drive the new BMW
Hydrogen 7, and that the car emits nothing but water
vapor. There are options to the traditional gas guzzler these
days, and the cars are fast, sturdy and sleek (with the exception
of the Xebra) - proving you do not have to sacrifice style and
beauty when you do the right thing by the environment. In downtown
Santa Monica, California, more and more locals have taken to pedaling
their bikes around town to run errands, meet friends at the local
watering hole and enjoy a ride along the beach.
Go green. It's
good for your wallet, your health, your energy bill and could even
improve your love life. It's also easier and cheaper than ever to
incorporate into your home. For more information on the Living Homes
LEED platinum rating, go to the LivingHomes.net
website.
Share your
Green Living tips on the NataliePace.com
Sharing
Wisdom bulletin board! List local home improvement stores,
contractors, etc., that you've had a great experience with. Share
other tips on brown, grey and black water reclaiming systems. Share
your wisdom! (This board is password protected to keep out the porn
and scams. You can register for free on the home page at NataliePace.com
and select the passwords of choice at that time.)
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Subprime
Loans Helped a Lot of Americans Get into Their Dream Home.
by Kassie
Welch
-
But Will Your Dream Last? Learn what you can do now to keep your
dream from going up in smoke.
Credit conditions
are tightening and real estate markets are softening. Acting now
to make sure you have a loan you can live with could keep your dream
alive.
With
all the press on the "subprime" lending crisis over the
last few months, I've received many calls from homeowners who obtained
financing from other lenders and are now in trouble. Not only do
they need help keeping their homes, but they're looking for answers.
They also want to know why their prior loan officer, who is nowhere
to be found, would give them this type of loan, specifically an
ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) that is increasing faster than they
can sometimes afford to pay.
Here's
my response.
Most
of the people who are finding themselves in trouble didn't fully
understand the loan program they were getting and some may have
been taken advantage of by unscrupulous or inexperienced loan officers.
Notice I said loan officer and not lenders, which seem to be the
scapegoats in this subprime lending "witch hunt." I'll
explain later in depth that people, not institutions, make "bad
loans."
Many of these
loans were 100% financing, interest only ARMs, with short term fixed
rate periods. In my opinion and experience of using the product,
they're not intended to be held for extended periods of time.
Most borrowers take them with the intention of refinancing once
they have more equity and/or have better credit, as the result of
credit repair and the effect of owning a home.
The problems
that are occurring now are with people who didn't refinance in time
either because they didn't clean up their credit as they expected/planned,
or got into the market too late to obtain the appreciation they
needed to refinance, or had a pre-payment penalty, which discouraged
them from refinancing earlier. And now their start rate or
sometimes called a "teaser" rate is over and their loan
begins to adjust.
We've been hearing
a lot about "teaser" rates, but usually the rate of the
above mentioned loans are higher than on prime 30-year fixed loans
made with down payments. The real problem isn't the initial rate
being too low, but lies in the margin or amount added to the index,
which determines the future interest rate. Most of subprime loans
have high margins, which result in high interest rates/payments
once the loans begin to adjust, especially for those borrowers with
less than prime credit rating.
The best example
I can give you is of a potential client I tried to help a few months
ago. I was able to secure the exact same interest rate/payments
except that the new loan was a 30-year fixed versus his two year
fixed that would later adjust and could be as high as 15%. At the
time, he refused my proposal because he was under the impression
he should be able to save $1,000 a month because that's what his
other lender had originally told him. He's "taking his chances"
that the market will improve and he'll be able to refinance at a
later date, versus spending the money and locking into permanent
financing now, even though there'd be no savings.
He was one of
the unlucky borrowers who bought too late in the housing boom and
didn't improve his credit enough to get what he was "promised"
by his former lender. He bought in April of 2006 with a low FICO,
due to a bankruptcy two years prior. He did 100% financing
with a 2/28 (2 year fixed, 28 year adjustable) with a five-year
interest only option on the first and a 20% 30 due in 15 (balloon
payment) fixed rate second.
You can see
from the lingo that this is difficult to understand and that the
buyer might not have fully understood how his first trust deed worked.
What this essentially means is that his payments started increasing
in the 3rd year (when the adjustable kicked in), followed
by a much bigger payment in year 5 (when he had to readjust the
loan to a potentially higher interest and principal reductions).
The second trust deed has stable payments, however at the end of
the 15th year, the outstanding balance of the second
would be due in payable. This typically equates to 75-80% of the
original loan balance since the bulk of loan repayments are made
in the last 20% of the amortization schedule.
His current
rates are 8.5% and 10.75%. His rate next year could be as high as
10.5% on the first and then 12.5% the following year and 14.5% the
next until it hits it's ceiling of 15+%.
Ugly, ugly loan
and one I tried to replace, but to no avail because of his unrealistic
expectations. Because he is a friend of a friend, I pleaded
with him repeatedly to take the 30 year fixed at 8.5% that I could
offer last spring, which NO LONGER EXISTS today. I want to mention
that he did a "full document" loan using Bank Statements (deposits
less 20% for business/operating expenses) and this type of documentation
has higher payments, too. To complicate matters more, he doesn't
have much in the way of cash reserves, so it's unlikely he'll be
refinancing soon, since most lenders are now requiring 6 months
PITI (Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance) after close of escrow.
There are so many variables for each borrower, but the above gives
you an example of the types of problems homeowners are experiencing
today. I've had done similar loans in the past, (although the rates
were lower) that refinanced with ease. However that was under different
market conditions (rapid appreciation) and lender requirements,
which were much more lenient compared to today's restricted lending
environment.
It seems everyone
is looking for someone to blame right now for the "subprime
crisis" we've found ourselves in. Currently, the lenders are
taking the brunt of the blame. I believe individuals played a part,
however, as well as loan officers -- many who are probably out of
the business due to inexperience or after making their money and
running. There were some companies as well, who built their business
around subprime loans that are now out of business, but made profits
before going bankrupt. The crisis is at least partially due to individuals
who misused the loan instruments and the borrowers who were naive,
hopeful or just plain ignorant and did not properly evaluate market
conditions or weigh their obligations to repay these risky loans.
Many borrowers
got carried away by the high, sometimes double digit appreciation
viewing the real estate market as another "gold rush."
Many relied exclusively on recent trends to make their home buying
decision versus considering historical long-range appreciation cycles
or the future cost of money. For anyone interested in real estate
statistics that are reliable, simply go to REALTOR.org, the website
of the National Association of Realtors. Be sure to look for local
statistics for your area since appreciation varies greatly throughout
the United States.
The bottom line
is that everyone is responsible for her own personal decisions,
especially when it comes to signing on the dotted line. The mortgage
business is a highly regulated industry and everything is disclosed.
There are Truth-in-Lending Disclosures, Good Faith Estimates
and HUD 1 Settlement Statements that give the borrower all the facts
and figures. Even stated income loans, which are another major
"culprit" in the subprime disintegration, require a borrower
to sign a loan application at closing, which clearly indicates
the stated income required to qualify for the loan obtained.
Lastly, the borrower always knows what the payments are in
the interim, while they're waiting for the refinance that will supposedly
"right" their choice as well as estimates of future payments
based on the index at the time of closing.
Many of the people who were and will be hurt are those that "trusted"
someone and/or, in my opinion, abdicated their personal responsibility.
I believe this is in part of the "housing" craze, not just
in buying, but in building, remodeling, and redecorating that permeates
our culture. Turn on your TV and you can view all the decorating
shows, segments on all the talk shows and two entire networks (HGTV
and DYI - maybe more that I'm unaware) dedicated to the craze. I
suspect many people got lost in the frenzy, especially when they
saw all their friends, co-workers and family buying/decorating/remodeling
homes and wanted into the game, the ultimate "keeping up with the
Jones."
The 100%
financing and interest only programs aren't bad programs if/when
used properly. They're just a tool, like a hammer that can be
used to build or destroy depending on the USER. Same is true
of the stated income loans, which were specifically designed for
people who have unclaimed income, but were still expected to state
what they truly earned. I always found this ironic because
one would think the government would want to know about any unclaimed
income.
The last piece of the lending crisis, which I truly believe is becoming
much bigger than for the subprime market, are people who have been
using their home as ATMs. Over the last 5-10 years, too many have
done repeated cash-out refinances, essentially living off their
equity. Although most will explain away their debt as this
emergency or this need or that, the truth is that life is filled
with emergencies. That's what savings accounts are supposedly for.
The home equity should only be tapped under the most dire of circumstances,
like a long-term illness, or if planned for properly, like sending
your children to college.
As a culture
we spend more than we make and over extend ourselves via credit,
whether it's consumer credit cards or the equity in our homes. We're
definitely living in interesting times and I believe we're getting
closer to "paying the piper" more each day.
It doesn't matter
what happened in the past or even why, as much as what you'll do
in the future to protect your home and your family. Each borrower's
situation is individual, so there aren't any "pat" answers.
Explore your options while you still have them (credit
options are tightening up daily) and work with only reputable individuals
and institutions to obtain a mortgage review.
5
Tips For Borrowers who are in danger of losing their homes
- Don't wait
to refinance, hoping that better rates and terms are on the horizon.
Interest rates are still near their 40-year low without much room
to go much lower, while, in the meantime, credit standards are
tightening up fast and values are softening. If you can qualify
for a new, longer-term loan that keeps you in your home at a price
you can afford, take it NOW.
- If a long-term
loan is too expensive, consider a negative amortization loan,
if you have enough equity to qualify. Although you'll be giving
up equity in the short term, you'll be able to stay in your home.
For many giving up equity is a better alternative than having
a cash crunch that could make it impossible to make your mortgage
in the future and possibly losing their home.
- Consider
downsizing to a less expensive home. Remember to factor in the
cost of selling a home (listing and buyer's agent commissions
as well as closing cost) when determining what you'd have as a
new down payment. The cost of selling might leave you with less
cash than you think, but it's worth exploring.
- If downsizing
doesn't make sense, compare your current housing cost factoring
in the tax advantages of home ownership to renting a comparable
home. Depending on your needs, you may not be able to rent for
much. If you still feel you cannot afford your home, LIST YOUR
HOME IMMEDIATELY at a price that will attract a buyer and quick
sale.
- If you're
unable to sell and payoff your mortgage with the proceeds, contact
your lender as soon as possible. Many lenders are establishing
Payment Restructure Departments to create payment plans. If your
lender doesn't have payment restructuring, find out about their
"short sell" policy. Determine the ramifications of
a short sell or deed in lieu of foreclosure. Some real estate
agents specialize in negotiating with lenders and might be a good
choice if you end up selling your home.
Online Chat
with Mortgage Loan Specialist Kassie Welch
Wednesday, October 24th, 2007
8:45AM through 9:30AM PT
Having trouble with your new ARM payments? Wonder if you should
hold out hope that real estate will rise rapidly in the coming months?
Get options from a veteran mortgage loan consultant.
A twenty-year
veteran of the real estate industry, Kassie is trained in all
areas of mortgage banking, from processing to loan servicing/securitization
and holds certifications in appraisal, underwriting and fraud detection/prevention
from the Mortgage Bankers Association in addition to her Bachelor
of Science Degree in Business Administration. Kassie regularly teaches
seminars, publishes articles on mortgage related topics, and has
been a "mortgage expert" on NPR's Marketplace Morning
Report. During her non-working hours, Kassie volunteers as a disabled
ski instructor in Mammoth, teaches financial literacy courses for
LINC Housing, a nonprofit developer of affordable housing for families
and seniors across California, as well as being on the Advisory
Committee of LINC Cares, a subsidiary organization, providing enhancement
programs to the LINC Housing residents. For more information,
you may reach Kassie at KassieWelch@aol.com
or visit her website at www.DreamHomeOwnership.com.
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Socially Conscious
Investing.
by Natalie
Pace.
According
to the Social Investment Forum (at SocialInvest.org), $2.3 trillion
(out of $24.4 trillion under professional management) was traded
with socially conscious screens in the United States in 2005 - nearly
one out of every ten dollars. Socially conscious investing can include
screens for environmental impact, repressive regimes, terrorist
states, corporate governance, sustainability, employees, community,
human rights, health and safety. When the phrase is used, it implies
companies with a focus on open and transparent business practices,
ethical values, respect for employees, communities and the environment
and with a vision of working for the world at large, as well as
shareholders.
Whew! Quantum
physics might be easier by comparison. Fortunately, there are a
lot of watchdog organizations that make the socially conscious mutual
fund manager's job easier than it sounds. And, thankfully, there
are a number of companies that offer socially conscious mutual funds,
so you don't have to do any extra work at all.
In 2007, the
best-known socially conscious funds were Domini and Calvert. I'd
love to report that green is good for your wallet, but over a ten-year
period, those funds underperformed the marketplace, meaning the
opposite. Ouch for those socially conscious visionaries of the late
1990s.
That might not
be the case in the future, however. The top performing industry
in the first quarter of 2007 was alternative energy, after being
virtually non-existent for the prior three decades. With the explosion
of interest in alternative energy and green investing in 2005 and
going forward, a number of new socially conscious mutual funds and
ETFs have begun to sprout and more will likely follow.
There are a
few more reasons why I think that socially conscious funds might
start to make headlines. Green became everyone's favorite color
in 2006 when many scientists and policymakers began acknowledging
that our world's climate was changing and that human interference
might have something to do with that. Alternative energy, sustainable
living, etc. became so pervasive that the man synonymous with capitalism
- Rupert Murdoch - was even quoted as saying, "Everyone is
green these days." Additionally, American women, who have been
building their own careers since the 1970s, are now entering the
marketplace of investing and estates, and 40% of the female investors
that I've surveyed list socially conscious investing as a top priority.
(This is a statistic that I've tested repeatedly, in various settings,
and it has held true in each - so far.) So, if you weight toward
socially conscious now, you could benefit from an emerging trend,
which is always an easy way to make money.
There will be
a slew of brokers and friends who are anxious to warn you that this
approach was a loser in the past. Remind them that driving while
looking in the rearview mirror is a good way to crash. The Internet
was a colossal loser for investors from 2000-2002, before Google
went on to become the most successful IPO of all time. Apple Computer
single handedly resurrected the music business, when the music companies
tried to sue their customers into paying for free downloads and
Tower Records had to shut its doors. Don't be stuck in the past,
ever.
Just to illustrate
how hot companies that take the high road are becoming, consider
one of the top performing stock picks in 2007 - World Water &
Power. I featured the company in my April 2007 ezine. Just one month
later, from May 29 to May 31, Quentin T. Kelly, World Water Chairman
and CEO, traveled in Toronto and Vancouver with California Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger on the Governor's Trade Mission to Canada.
Mr. Kelley was selected due to World Water & Power's leading
role in building prominent solar energy projects in California,
including the Fresno airport solar complex, as well as the largest
solar-powered agricultural system in the world and only self-sustaining
water utility. On August 9, 2007, the company announced that they
would be delivering 10 Mobile MaxPure units for use in Darfur, Sudan.
The portable solar driven water pumping and purifying units will
provide approximately 30,000 gallons of safe drinking water daily
at each of 10 sites across the ravaged desert region. This is the
kind of company that thrills the socially conscious investor and
the capitalist alike.
Now, I bring
this up because World Water was trading off the boards during that
time period (and still is), meaning that, if you were perusing technical
charts or earnings reports or analyst recommendations, you would
have given it no shot as the company to get the call from the governor.
The only way of discerning what a player that World Water was becoming
was by looking at the products, the customers and the forward-thinking
projects that the CEO was engaged in.
Additionally,
as the ultra high-risk investment, World Water would typically be
the first stock dumped in a panic, if there was any concern in the
larger stock markets. However, instead of showing weakness during
the subprime mortgage concerns of the summer of 2007, World Water
held up very strong, while the blue chip stocks in the Dow Jones
Industrial Average took a beating. It started at 59 cents in April
when I first featured the company, soared to $2.52 on news of the
Schwarzenegger tour and then settled back in at $1.50 range during
the volatile downturn of July and August 2007. The stock markets
look like a flat line by comparison to the stellar returns that
World Water posted and sustained during the period between my feature
article in April and September 18, 2007, when Chairman Bernanke
and the Federal Open Market Committee cut the Fed Funds rate by
50 basis points in an attempt to restore confidence in the capital
and credit markets.

Source:
www.MoneyCentral.MSN.com
To my reasoning,
that means that investors who take positions in these green, socially
conscious companies are less willing to give them up -- even in
uncertain times. In that case, new investors are going to have to
pay a higher price - something we all love when we've bought our
positions early.
Interested in
socially conscious investing, but want to try a newer fund? Doing
a search for socially conscious mutual funds or ETFs on your favorite
engine should yield results. Also, it is your broker's job to know
what funds are out there, so s/he should be helpful in your search
as well. PowerShares has two Exchange Traded Funds in the socially
conscious space -- WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (AMEX: PBW)
and the Cleantech Portfolio (AMEX: PBZ). According to the PowerShares
website, "A company is considered to be part of the clean tech
industry if it produces any knowledge-based product or service that
improves operation, performance, productivity or efficiency, while
reducing costs, inputs, energy consumption, waste or pollution."
Even if you
don't want to become an activist investor, chances are you would
be more active than you are right now if you realized that chances
are VERY HIGH that you are already invested in all kinds
of corporations that you may not wish to support. If you have a
retirement plan at all (whether it is a 401 (k), annuity, IRA or
pension plan), you are invested in mutual funds, and each mutual
fund invests in hundreds of publicly traded companies. Every wonder
how Philip Morris could make it through those decades of lawsuits
by the cancer victims? With your money. Ever wonder how Fannie
Mae could still have a market value close to what it was five years
ago, through fraud claims, accounting scandals and a scathing indictment
and ousting of former CEO and Chairman Franklin Raines? With your
money.
Natalie's Note:
Mutual funds are simply a mass-marketed financial product that contains
hundreds of publicly traded companies. For instance, the most popular
mutual fund - American Funds Growth Fund of America - owns stock
in Microsoft, Google, Schlumberger, Roche, Oracle, Lowe's, Target,
Fannie Mae, General Electric, Sprint, Cisco, Medtronic, Altria (Philip
Morris tobacco company), American International Group, Texas Instruments,
Nokia, and hundreds of other companies. So, when you buy shares
of that mutual fund, you in essence own shares of all of the other
companies.
In September
of 2007, Altria (Philip Morris) was one of the top holdings in the
four most widely held mutual funds, while Fannie Mae was a top holding
of the top three most widely held funds. Translation: if you own
a mutual fund, chances are you own Philip Morris tobacco company,
whether you like it or not, and all kinds of other companies and
activities that you may not want to support - whether you are anti-oil
companies or just sick of watching a tanned Larry Ellison (CEO,
Oracle) buy Malibu real estate and race sailboats.
Before you burn
this book for giving you too many things to worry about, again,
screening to see what companies you own is as easy as two clicks
on your computer. Literally. That easy. You can simply enter the
symbol of the mutual funds that you currently own on any major financial
site and then click on Top 25 Holdings to see what companies you
are supporting. And if you don't want to own those kinds of mutual
funds, then simply tell your broker that you want to own funds that
are more socially conscious (and find a broker to work with you
on that). There are index funds, exchange-traded funds and tons
of easy options for you to choose from that target companies more
in your sweet spot. Or, you could create your own nest egg with
a basket of carefully diversified stocks, with the help of a professional.
It's not that hard, and a good broker will be a valuable asset in
this.
Again, with
your nest egg, once you get it tucked in properly, you just keep
feeding it monthly and check up on it twice a year. It is very easy
and very rewarding.
If Al Gore is
as prescient about global warming as he was about the Internet,
going green is a good bet, even if you're only doing it to capitalize
on an emerging trend. It's funny to think of Gore as a visionary
- when his reputation as such a spastic dancer at the Inaugural
Balls is so ingrained -- but history may regard him in a much more
glowing light than Americans currently afford him. And if that is
the case, making your "calls" on green investing now could
be very rewarding.
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Do What Makes Money
First.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire.
 |
| Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire. |
If you are in
business for yourself, it is easy to let work fill every waking
hour of your life. Starting a business involves a huge investment
of time in getting all your systems set up, trial and error on what
works and what doesn't work to serve your customers, networking,
research and development of new ideas, staying abreast of current
trends in your industry, etc. The problem is that when you spend
so much time in the beginning building your business, spending 80-hour
weeks becomes your new habit. That's what your mind begins to tell
you is necessary for your business survival. Then fear of financial
insecurity runs your business and that's when your business starts
running you.
But corporate
ladder-climbers often work the same long hours, and so do lots of
administrative wage earners who care about doing a good job. I'm
not saying not to give. I'm saying not to over-give. The number
of hours are not the appropriate measure, anyway.
There comes
a time when you have to break that habit in order to create more
time for your life in your work schedule. If you pay attention to
what makes money in your business and spend the majority of your
time and energy on those things, you can streamline all your systems
so that your business serves your life instead of vice versa. You
can convince clients and bosses of this if you gather the proof
and then make the sale. That's what I want you to do.
There are three
rules for making money in business:
- Do what
makes money now. Can you pick up the phone today,
make a call, make a sale and get money right now? Can you have
a discount sale this weekend and have cash that day? Can you
work a part-time job and get money in a regular paycheck at
the end of the week if you are just getting your business off
the ground or sales are slow? You know what your budget is,
and you need to do whatever it takes to make money now so you
can pay your bills now. You need bread and butter canoes that
keep you solvent from day to day.
- Do what
makes money soon. These are marketing activities
that don't directly produce income now, but produce contacts
that will produce money soon. These are networking activities,
newsletters, and emails that are going to produce money eventually,
but not necessarily today. If you spend time arranging speaking
engagements a couple of months in advance, they will produce
"Soon Money" after the speaking event has been held.
These are your schooners.
- Do what
makes money later. Some of your bigger sales will
take longer to close. Big ships sail slower. If you are selling
a 10,000 order to a department store, the sale will take longer
and the money will come in later than if you just sell one item
to a customer today. This book is a perfect example of "Later
Money". Yes, I got some money as an advance upon signing
the contract, but the majority of my money will come later in
the form of royalties, which only get paid every six months.
This is potentially good money, but I will starve to death at
the dock if I ignore the canoes that bring in money today and
only focus on the cruise ships that bring in money far off in
the future.
But whatever
you do, in any case, do what makes money first!
It is also
important to spend a portion of your time on residual income-producing
activities, so that you aren't totally dependent on working each
day in order to make money. When I decided to write a book, I had
to reorganize my time priorities list in order to include it. Writing
became my fourth priority. I have to keep my main business profitable
so that I still make a living while I write my book, but if I don't
put writing time in my schedule, there won't be a book. Getting
paid for the book is mostly "Later Money", but it also
creates an additional income stream that I call "making money
while you sleep." When my book is in the bookstores, it is
being sold by people all over the world, 24 hours a day, even while
I am asleep. My books can be producing income for meÑand my heirsÑfor
years into the future, long after I am no longer working.
Actors have
known this for years, and that's why they negotiated residual income
to be paid to them when their movies are sold in other markets or
run on television. But that isn't enough. There is a reason that
famous celebrities design clothing lines, or perfumes, or write
songs they publish as well as sing. They are creating residual incomes
that will last long after their careers have fadedÑeven after their
death. Elvis Presley and Graceland is a good example of that.
The motion
picture industry often makes as much or more money from ancillary
products as they do from the movies themselves. You can invest in
real estate, stocks, bonds, etc. You can design a web-based business,
with products, e-books, and on-line training courses that people
can buy automatically at any time. Then you spend your time marketing
to get people to the web site. If you join a multi-level sales organization,
you can train other people and make a profit from their sales as
well as your own.
Every other
business activity is administrivia and can be put off, delegated,
boiler-plated, streamlined, and otherwise made efficient and fast.
Administrivia is the biggest time waster. We want to make our papers
perfect, because then we feel like we're doing a good job at our
work. But the real reasonÑthe hidden reasonÑwe love to shuffle our
papers is because it makes us feel like we are working, when really
we are avoiding.
So the way
we spend our time actually breaks down like this:
- Time spent
doing things that make money
- Time spent
doing things that cost money
- Time spent
doing things that make you feel like you're working but are
really an avoidance of A.
What we are
avoiding is the real work of the businessÑno, not the delivery of
the product or serviceÑwe adore that part! That's what we're in
business to do and why we started our business in the first place.
There isn't one business owner I know who wouldn't love to have
a roster full of clients all ready to pay money for us to do what
we love doing. But we won't have them unless we do the most difficult
and confrontational part of the business: We have to find prospects
and sell them our products or services, which is what turns them
into clients. The hard partÑthe confrontational partÑof business
is sales. We don't always like that so much. But that's the A workÑand
that's where the money is. And so that's where your time should
be spent.
Chellie Campbell
is the author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit.
She created and teaches the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops,
on which her book is based, in the Los Angeles area and gives programs
throughout the country.
If you are stuck
in a rut in your business or life and/or having too much "month
at the end of your money," Chellie's workshop might be just what
you need to get things on the right track. You can sign up for Chellie's
Ezine and workshop at www.chellie.com.
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Play Dough:
by Natalie
Pace.
Bewitching
Delights on Both Coasts. On Your Way to Riches, Don't Forget to
Enjoy Life.
Bobbing
for the Big Apple
6 outrageous experiences to have in New York City, the city
that never sleeps, along with three important tips on how to make
your stay unforgettable. New York City is vibrant and alive these
days, and the real Mecca for the world's conversations on some of
the most important topics of today. At the same time, it is still
leading the world in cultural experiences - from ballet, to opera,
to theatre, to fine art and some of the most exciting "green"
skyscraper and architectural designs around.
Best Hotel,
Breakfast and Burger: Le Parker Meridien with breakfast at Norma's
and Lunch at Burger Joint. Imagine being 39 floors up, with
a view of Central Park. Downstairs you have the choice of the best
breakfast on the planet at Norma's, or the best burger in mid-town
at The Burger Joint (hidden behind the concierge desk). After you've
stuffed yourself silly, you can take a yoga class, or a spinning
class or indulge in two floors of aerobic options, training machines
or free weights. The gym at the Parker Meridien is larger than those
of all of the local 5-star hotels put together - tres indulgent
for the fitness lover - and even includes a penthouse swimming pool!
The bellman always remembers your name. There's a New York Times
waiting outside your door every morning. A mid-town location and
a line-up of cabs out front, or a subway right around the corner,
mean that all of Manhattan is accessible within just a few minutes.
Whether you are an executive on business or a couple indulging in
a romantic weekend or a family taking in the Big Apple, Le Parker
Meridien is the only place to stay in New York City. Upgrade to
a park view. It's worth it.
Best Drink:
Caiparinhas at Circus. The caiparinhas at Circus will almost
make you feel that you're watching Gisele Bundchen slink across
a sandy beach in Rio, with "Girl from Ipanema" playing
in the background. The Brazilian food is fresh, inspired and delightful
as well. Definitely a night out on the town not to be missed! 132
E 61st St New York, NY. (212) 223-2965.
Best Museum
Experience: Pyramids at the Met. They say that the Egyptian
Book of the Dead contains the ancient stories upon which
the Bible and most other religious tomes were based. It's humbling,
if not perplexing, to read translations of the hieroglyphics from
over four thousand years ago that read, "I gave bread to the
poor. I took a man across the river in my boat" - especially
for those of us who thought one religion had a copyright on those
sentiments. Oh, and the paintings aren't so bad either. http://www.metmuseum.org/
Best Dinner:
Blue Ribbon. This is the restaurant where chefs sneak away
to treat their taste buds. Where else can you get bone marrow and
oxtail marmalade beside your Pu-Pu platter? (212) 274-0404. 97 Sullivan
St New York, NY.
Best Calendar
Listing: Time-Out Magazine. Broadway, Off Broadway,
Off-Off Broadway, dancing, food, local festivities! You won't miss
a thing with Time-Out Magazine.
Best Restaurant
Guide: Zagat. If a restaurant doesn't have a Zagat rating
sticker in their window, just walk a few more steps to the one that
does. There are hundreds of restaurants in every neighborhood, and
they all know that Zagat is the standard by which they are judged.
If the restaurant has been overlooked, there's a good reason for
it.
Bagel
Shops and Pizza/Salad Walk-ins: You don't need to eat $28
breakfasts and lunches every day. There are bagel shops and pizza
stands (usually with fresh salad options inside) on every corner.
Even Starbucks has breakfast these days for under $5!
Beach
Town Bliss: Santa Monica.
New
York City is our home away from home, but Santa Monica is our hometown,
so we have a lot of wonderful experiences to share with you. You
can count the many once-in-a-lifetime opportunities we list below
if you wish - they are too numerous for us - but they add up to
priceless memories that you'll have for the rest of your life. Everyone
deserves a week in one of the world's most magical, spiritual, cultured
cities in the world - Santa Monica, California. And remember, California
is moderate, year-round climate. It's 80 degrees and sunny year-round,
except for every few years when we get rain between November and
February. Coming during the off-season means that you get to experience
paradise without the crowds and traffic.
Best
Beachfront Drink (Expensive): Geoffrey's,
Malibu
Best Beachfront
Drink (More Reasonable): The
Sunset Restaurant, Malibu.
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| Wedding
at the Sunset Restaurant, Malibu, California |
Best Penthouse
View of the Entire City: The
Penthouse at the Huntley Hotel. (The Huntley Hotel would
easily qualify as "Most Creative Use of the Piranha."
Don't miss the wall of fish in the lobby.)
Best Drink:
the Ivy Gimlet at Ivy at the Shore and the Ivy on Robertson. Also,
great place to catch a glimpse of your favorite celebrity. The food
is amazing, but very expensive.
Best Dinner
with a View: The
Lobster, Santa Monica Pier. Surprisingly delightful fare,
made from fresh organic produce and fresh seafood. Beachfront. Overlooking
the pier.
Best Restaurant:
Josie's
Restaurant, Santa Monica. Fresh, local produce inspire orgasmic
fare from one of the most gifted chefs and team in the world.
Best Dinner
Ambience (Fire Pit): Ocean
and Vine, Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel.

Best Breakfast:
Figtree's
Café on the Venice Boardwalk. Don't miss the cornmeal
blueberry and banana pancakes. Lunch is amazing as well - especially
the tofu quesadilla and the stir-fry.
Best Local's
Hang for Dinner: Piccolo
Ristorante, 5 Dudley on Venice Boardwalk.
Best Mexican
breakfast: Gilbert's El Indio, Santa Monica. Cheesy refried
beans, fresh guacamole, salsa Diablo, juevos con chorizo and more.
Coolest
Home: The first Platinum LEED rated home is a prefab! Check
it out at LivingHomes.net
Best New
Artist: Michel Tabori at TaboriStudio.com.
Find out why his shows are all selling out - nationwide. See his
masterpiece - "BeBop" - at Hal's
Bar and Grill, on Abbott Kinney Blvd., in Venice.
Los Angeles
Opera: Placido Domingo, the Executive Director at the LA
Opera, has turned Los Angeles into one of the top cultural
centers in the world. Don't miss this seasons spectacular performances,
including Puccini's La Boheme, Mozart's Don Giovanni, Verdi's Otello
and more.
The
Getty Center: Where architecture, landscape, photography
and fine art collide. Free admission. (Paid parking.)
Rollerblading
on the Beach: With over 300 days of sunshine every year,
Santa Monica Beach is the best place to get your blade groove on.
Blade, bike or jog along the longest beachfront path on the West
Coast. Less than $15 buys you an unforgettable hour; there are bike
and blade rental shops all up and down the bike path. Head down
to Venice for culture and curves, and up toward the Pacific Palisades
for beach volleyball and less sand in your ball bearings.
Reverend
Michael Bernard Beckwith's Agape
Sanctuary: Visit the sanctuary of the star of The
Secret, where The Rev and his wife, the gifted Dr. Rickie Byars
Beckwith, rock with famous singers, and inspire with messages of
bringing more heaven to our Earth. Culver City, California.
Rawvolution:
You don't have to be a raw food vegan to enjoy the delicious creations
and fresh coconut milk (served in the coconut) at Rawvolution. Healthy,
fresh and filling. Euphoria Loves Rawvolution. (310) 392-9501. 2301
Main St Santa Monica, California.
What to
avoid:
Most ridiculous
meal: Capo. No Italian would ever want to go to a place named Capo,
and if the prices don't scare you off, the attitude of the staff
will.
Play dough:
Don't forget to enjoy life! This one is all you have (this time
around).
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The Pearl of Havana:

A
Cuban Fantasy Gala to Benefit Single Parents and Their Catastrophically
Ill Children on an Exclusive Estate in Santa Barbara, California.
On October 20,
2007, celebrities, philanthropists and bon vivants will gather in
Santa Barbara, CA for an elegant evening of mambo, music and showgirls
to benefit the Andre Sobel River of Life Foundation. Cocktails flow
at 5:30 p.m., followed by dinner, with a silent & live auction
and Casino stage show swinging in at 7:30 p.m. With celebrities
like Andy Garcia, Mary Hart of "Entertainment Tonight"
and Lawrence Bender (the producer of Pulp Ffiction) lending
their names to the event, and the indulgent setting of a private
Santa Barbara estate, it's likely to be quite a memorable evening.
Of special note, Desi Arnaz, Jr. will make a rare appearance, and
tribute his dad with the Babaloo number on the congas.
Tickets for
this once-in-a-lifetime gala experience start at $500 and go up.
Corporate Sponsors are also being sought. This benefits a very worthy
cause -- The Andre Sobel River of Life Foundation, which pays urgent
expenses so single parents can stay at the side of their catastrophically
ill children. Of course, your support, even if you are unable to
attend this very special gala, is greatly appreciated, and you can
make a donation online at http://www.andreriveroflife.org.
So, consider mamboing with other stylish philanthropists in Santa
Barbara in" The Pearl of Havana ~ A Cuban Fantasy" (designed
by Cuban-born Hollywood legend, Luis Estevez). Go to: www.thepearlofhavana.com
NOW, for your invitation.
Helping
Others: A Foundation that Supports Single Parents Through Their
Worst Nightmare: The Terminal Illness of a Child.
by Kate
Vozoff, with Valerie Sobel, founder of the Andre Sobel River of
Life Foundation.
Valerie Sobel
experienced the worse nightmare of every parent when she lost her
teenage son Andre to an inoperable malignant brain tumor. She and
her family have endured the kind of reversal that results only
from this kind of nightmare. Her husband and mother lost their lives
within the year following Andre's death, and her daughter Simone
has not quite forgiven for the emotional abandonment siblings experience
from their perspective.
The work of
the Foundation bearing Andre's name was shaped by this family's
saga, yet its mission reflects on a void that was not part of their
experience. Their family was privileged with emotional support and
financial wherewithal, but Ms. Sobel posed the question: how can
single parents possibly manage without those? She found the answer
to be: NOT WELL.
After helping
more than 3,000 people since the year 2000, when the foundation
was established, the Andre Sobel River of Life Foundation
has become the experts in the emerging pediatric field of single
caregivers. Statistics show 78% of couples separate or divorce in
the first year of a child being diagnosed with a life threatening
illness. This problem, once defined, demonstrates there is a new
and less visible challenge. Because parents must continue to try
and go to work to provide for their family, there are children dying
alone. The single parent's choices are to quit their jobs and plummet
financially, or continue working and spend much-needed funds on
in-home care by others.
Valerie recalls a conversation with one woman in this dilemma when
she asked how much money would allow her to stay at home with her
child. The answer: $800 month. "Just imagine the senselessness
of forcing a mother to leave her dying child and go to work, so
she can pay a stranger to do the thing she wants to do most," says
Ms. Sobel.
The real objective therefore of the ASRL foundation is to provide
emergency financial help, thereby allowing the parent to care for
his/her critically ill child. Our gift is that of more time for
the parent and child to be together, and our belief is that this
should be the basic right for all.
The hallmark of the program is assistance within 24 hours. The social
workers at 12 pediatric Hospitals apply for help on behalf of a
family once they have run out of other resources to turn to.
Valerie Sobel wishes the fund could save children's lives, but by
softening the crisis for their single parents, the help they provide
is invaluable for the overall sanity of the family. It is a practical
mission that helps immediately and demonstrates how a crisis in
her opinion should be handled: without heartless red tape. Having
experienced this journey with her Andre, she understands there is
little emotional room left for facing bureaucracy.
This deep-felt awareness helps explain why the Andre Sobel River
of Life Foundation supports everything from food and shelter to
ballet lessons for a patient's sibling, transportation for chemotherapy
appointments, alternative therapies, and even burial costs. "We
try to be sensitive to what government can never be expected to
support," says Ms. Sobel. "Our society is only as humane as our
treatment of those so diminished by crisis they cannot speak for
themselves."
To help the Andre
Sobel
River of Life Foundation help single parents during their
worst moments, visit http://www.andreriveroflife.org
To RSVP for
the Pearl of Havana gala in
Santa Barbara, CA on October 20, 2007, visit http://www.andreriveroflife.org.
Or call ASRL offices at 310 276 7111 and ask for Ursula Dillard,
or e-mail her at Ursula@andreriveroflife.org
|
|
A Long Way Gone: Memoirs
of a Boy Soldier.
by Ishmael
Beah.
This
is part of our ongoing series on peace = prosperity.
Excerpt reprinted
with permission of Sarah Crichton Books (an imprint of Farrar, Straus
and Giroux).
 |
| Reprinted
with permission. © Sarah Crichton Books Farrar, Straus and Giroux
|
A
Long Way Gone:
Memoirs of a Boy Soldier by Ishmael Beah is the
gripping story of a child's journey
through hell
and back.
There may be
as many as 300,000 child soldiers, hopped-up on drugs and wielding
AK-47s, in more than fifty conflicts around the world. Ishmael Beah
used to be one of them. He is one of the first to tell his story
in his own words.
In A Long Way Gone, Beah, now twenty-six years old, tells
a riveting story. At the age of twelve, he fled attacking rebels
and wandered a land rendered unrecognizable by violence. By thirteen,
he'd been picked up by the government army, and Beah, at heart a
gentle boy, found that he was capable of truly terrible acts. Eventually
released by the army and sent to a UNICEF rehabilitation center,
he struggled to regain his humanity and to reenter the world of
civilians, who viewed him with fear and suspicion. This is, at last,
a story of redemption and hope.
Chapter
One excerpt:
There
were all kinds of stories told about the war that made it sound
as if it was happening in a faraway and different land. It wasn't
until refugees started passing through our town that we began to
see that it was actually taking place in our country. Families who
had walked hundreds of miles told how relatives had been killed
and their houses burned. Some people felt sorry for them and offered
them places to stay, but most of the refugees refused, because they
said the war would eventually reach our town. The children of these
families wouldn't look at us, and they jumped at the sound of chopping
wood or as stones landed on the tin roofs flung by children hunting
birds with slingshots. The adults among these children from the
war zones would be lost in their thoughts during conversations with
the elders of my town. Apart from their fatigue and malnourishment,
it was evident they had seen something that plagued their minds,
something that we would refuse to accept if they told us all of
it. At times I thought that some of the stories the passersby told
were exaggerated. The only wars I knew of were those that I had
read about in books or seen in movies such as Rambo: First Blood,
and the one in neighboring Liberia that I had heard about on the
BBC news. My imagination at ten years old didn't have the capacity
to grasp what had taken away the happiness of the refugees.
The first time
that I was touched by war I was twelve. It was in January of 1993.
I left home with Junior, my older brother, and our friend Talloi,
both a year older than I, to go to the town of Mattru Jong, to participate
in our friends' talent show. Mohamed, my best friend, couldn't come
because he and his father were renovating their thatched-roof kitchen
that day. The four of us had started a rap and dance group when
I was eight. We were first introduced to rap music during one of
our visits to Mobimbi, a quarter where the foreigners who worked
for the same American company as my father lived. We often went
to Mobimbi to swim in a pool and watch the huge color television
and the white people who crowded the visitors' recreational area.
One evening a music video that consisted of a bunch of young black
fellows talking really fast came on the television. The four of
us sat there mesmerized by the song, trying to understand what the
black fellows were saying. At the end of the video, some letters
came up at the bottom of the screen. They read "Sugarhill Gang,
ÔRapper's Delight.'" Junior quickly wrote it down on a piece
of paper. After that, we came to the quarters every other weekend
to study that kind of music on television. We didn't know what it
was called then, but I was impressed with the fact that the black
fellows knew how to speak English really fast, and to the beat.
Later on, when
Junior went to secondary school, he befriended some boys who taught
him more about foreign music and dance. During holidays, he brought
me cassettes and taught my friends and me how to dance to what we
came to know as hip-hop. I loved the dance, and particularly enjoyed
learning the lyrics, because they were poetic and it improved my
vocabulary. One afternoon, Father came home while Junior, Mohamed,
Talloi, and I were learning the verse of "I Know You Got Soul"
by Eric B. & Rakim. He stood by the door of our clay brick and
tin roof house laughing and then asked, "Can you even understand
what you are saying?" He left before Junior could answer. He
sat in a hammock under the shade of the mango, guava, and orange
trees and tuned his radio to the BBC news.
"Now,
this is good English, the kind that you should be listening to,"
he shouted from the yard.
While Father
listened to the news, Junior taught us how to move our feet to the
beat. We alternately moved our right and then our left feet to the
front and back, and simultaneously did the same with our arms, shaking
our upper bodies and heads. "This move is called the running
man," Junior said. Afterward, we would practice miming the
rap songs we had memorized. Before we parted to carry out our various
evening chores of fetching water and cleaning lamps, we would say
"Peace, son" or "I'm out," phrases we had picked
up from the rap lyrics. Outside, the evening music of birds and
crickets would commence.
On the morning
that we left for Mattru Jong, we loaded our backpacks with notebooks
of lyrics we were working on and stuffed our pockets with cassettes
of rap albums. In those days we wore baggy jeans, and underneath
them we had soccer shorts and sweatpants for dancing. Under our
long-sleeved shirts we had sleeveless undershirts, T-shirts, and
soccer jerseys. We wore three pairs of socks that we pulled down
and folded to make our crapes* look puffy. When it got too hot in
the day, we took some of the clothes off and carried them on our
shoulders. They were fashionable, and we had no idea that this unusual
way of dressing was going to benefit us. Since we intended to return
the next day, we didn't say goodbye or tell anyone where we were
going. We didn't know that we were leaving home, never to return.
To save money,
we decided to walk the sixteen miles to Mattru Jong. It was a beautiful
summer day, the sun wasn't too hot, and the walk didn't feel long
either, as we chatted about all kinds of things, mocked and chased
each other. We carried slingshots that we used to stone birds and
chase the monkeys that tried to cross the main dirt road. We stopped
at several rivers to swim. At one river that had a bridge across
it, we heard a passenger vehicle in the distance and decided to
get out of the water and see if we could catch a free ride. I got
out before Junior and Talloi, and ran across the bridge with their
clothes. They thought they could catch up with me before the vehicle
reached the bridge, but upon realizing that it was impossible, they
started running back to the river, and just when they were in the
middle of the bridge, the vehicle caught up to them. The girls in
the truck laughed and the driver tapped his horn. It was funny,
and for the rest of the trip they tried to get me back for what
I had done, but they failed.
We arrived
at Kabati, my grandmother's village, around two in the afternoon.
Mamie Kpana was the name that my grandmother was known by. She was
tall and her perfectly long face complemented her beautiful cheekbones
and big brown eyes. She always stood with her hands either on her
hips or on her head. By looking at her, I could see where my mother
had gotten her beautiful dark skin, extremely white teeth, and the
translucent creases on her neck. My grandfather or kamorÑteacher,
as everyone called himÑwas a well-known local Arabic scholar and
healer in the village and beyond.
At Kabati,
we ate, rested a bit, and started the last six miles. Grandmother
wanted us to spend the night, but we told her that we would be back
the following day.
"How is
that father of yours treating you these days?" she asked in
a sweet voice that was laden with worry.
"Why are
you going to Mattru Jong, if not for school? And why do you look
so skinny?" she continued asking, but we evaded her questions.
She followed us to the edge of the village and watched as we descended
the hill, switching her walking stick to her left hand so that she
could wave us off with her right hand, a sign of good luck.
We arrived in
Mattru Jong a couple of hours later and met up with old friends,
Gibrilla, Kaloko, and Khalilou. That night we went out to Bo Road,
where street vendors sold food late into the night. We bought boiled
groundnut and ate it as we conversed about what we were going to
do the next day, made plans to see the space for the talent show
and practice. We stayed in the verandah room of Khalilou's house.
The room was small and had a tiny bed, so the four of us (Gibrilla
and Kaloko went back to their houses) slept in the same bed, lying
across with our feet hanging. I was able to fold my feet in a little
more since I was shorter and smaller than all the other boys.
The next day
Junior, Talloi, and I stayed at Khalilou's house and waited for
our friends to return from school at around 2:00 p.m. But they came
home early. I was cleaning my crapes and counting for Junior and
Talloi, who were having a push-up competition. Gibrilla and Kaloko
walked onto the verandah and joined the competition. Talloi, breathing
hard and speaking slowly, asked why they were back. Gibrilla explained
that the teachers had told them that the rebels had attacked Mogbwemo,
our home. School had been canceled until further notice. We stopped
what we were doing.
According to
the teachers, the rebels had attacked the mining areas in the afternoon.
The sudden outburst of gunfire had caused people to run for their
lives in different directions. Fathers had come running from their
workplaces, only to stand in front of their empty houses with no
indication of where their families had gone. Mothers wept as they
ran toward schools, rivers, and water taps to look for their children.
Children ran home to look for parents who were wandering the streets
in search of them. And as the gunfire intensified, people gave up
looking for their loved ones and ran out of town.
"This
town will be next, according to the teachers." Gibrilla lifted
himself from the cement floor. Junior, Talloi, and I took our backpacks
and headed to the wharf with our friends. There, people were arriving
from all over the mining area. Some we knew, but they couldn't tell
us the whereabouts of our families. They said the attack had been
too sudden, too chaotic; that everyone had fled in different directions
in total confusion.
For more than
three hours, we stayed at the wharf, anxiously waiting and expecting
either to see our families or to talk to someone who had seen them.
But there was no news of them, and after a while we didn't know
any of the people who came across the river. The day seemed oddly
normal. The sun peacefully sailed through the white clouds, birds
sang from treetops, the trees danced to the quiet wind. I still
couldn't believe that the war had actually reached our home. It
is impossible, I thought. When we left home the day before, there
had been no indication the rebels were anywhere near.
"What
are you going to do?" Gibrilla asked us. We were all quiet
for a while, and then Talloi broke the silence. "We must go
back and see if we can find our families before it is too late."
Junior and
I nodded in agreement.
Excerpted from
A Long
Way Gone: Memoirs
of a Boy Soldier by Ishmael Beah. Copyright © 2007
by Ishmael Beah. Published in February 2007 by Sarah Crichton Books,
a division of Farrar, Straus and Giroux, LLC. All rights reserved.
Copyright
©2001-2003 Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
You can make
a difference for children worldwide. UNICEF
depends entirely on voluntary contributions for all of their work.
You can donate, or purchase UNICEF cards and gifts, or become a
volunteer. Click to Support
UNICEF, the organization
which helped to rehabilitate Ishmael Beah.
|
|
"Free
Lunch" Investment Seminars.
ÑAvoiding
the Heartburn of a Hard Sell. Investor Alert from FINRA.org.
(the Financial Industry Regulatory Agency).
Investors frequently
get invited to free seminars that promise to educate them about
investing strategies or managing money in retirementÑoften with
an expensive meal provided at no cost. But just because someone
buys you breakfast, lunch or dinner doesn't mean you have to buy
what they are sayingÑor selling.
We are issuing
this Alert because, in many cases, free-meal investment seminars
are not solely about education. Their ultimate goals are to recruit
new clients and sell productsÑand while some pitches can be easy
to swallow, the consequences can be hard to bear.
They're
Popular
Free
investment seminars are widespread. According to a recent survey
by the FINRA Investor Education Foundation, four out of five investors
age 60 and above (78 percent) got at least one invitation to a free
investment seminar in the past three yearsÑand three out of five
(nearly 60 percent) got six or more. Not all of these invitations
are being tossed out: nearly 25 percent of all those investors
said that they went to at least one seminar in the three years.
On the other hand, the good news is that relatively few older investors
who do attend seminars actually buy anythingÑonly about 9 percent.
If you haven't
been invited to a free-meal investment seminar yet, you likely will
be. And if you decide to go, you need to be prepared.
What's
Wrong with a Free Meal?
Potentially
nothing. But problems can sometimes arise when the sponsor of the
event or one of the lead speakers has something to sell, even though
the invitation might state otherwise. Other times, problems can
arise after the seminarÑduring follow-up contacts from the speaker
or sponsor.
Securities regulators,
including FINRA, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and
state regulators, recently conducted more than 100 examinations
involving free-meal seminars. In half the cases, the sales materialsÑincluding
the invitations and advertisements for the eventsÑcontained claims
that appeared to be exaggerated, misleading or otherwise unwarranted.
And 12 percent of the seminars appeared to involve fraud, ranging
from unfounded projections of returns to sales of fictitious products.
So, before
you attend a free-meal investment seminarÑwhether for fun, good
food, or to learn moreÑbe aware that you may well be presented with
a hard sell effort. Here are a few key points to keep in mind:
* Seminars
are designed to sell. Even when advertised as educational,
many investment seminars are intended to sell somethingÑfinancial
products or the speaker's books or services. Keep in mind that,
at times, sales pitches might include confusing comparisons of dissimilar
products or misleading information about the safety, performance
and returns of the products touted.
* Good
shows aren't always good deals. It's human nature to be
impressed with a well-dressed speaker in a high-end venue and to
take their advice more seriously. That's why it's no mistake that
many investment seminars are held in upscale restaurants or hotels
and may offer even more than a free mealÑsuch as door prizes, free
books and vacation dealsÑto get you to attend and listen to the
pitch. But you'll want to take time to thoroughly assess whether
the opportunity is right for you.
* The
lead speaker might not be the actual sponsor. Even if you
recognize the names of the individuals who invite you to a seminar
or speak at the event, they might not be the actual sponsors. At
times, insurance companies or mutual funds finance the events, expecting
that the speaker will use the event to drive sales of their products.
Education
Is a Great IdeaÑSo Be Sure to Learn About Persuasion
Before
you consider attending an investment seminar, take the time to learn
about the persuasion tactics and influence techniques that sellers,
both legitimate and not-so-legitimate, use. These include:
* Phantom
RichesÑdangling the prospect of wealth, enticing you with
something you want but can't have. "These gas wells are guaranteed
to produce $6,800 a month in income."
* Source
CredibilityÑtrying to build credibility by claiming to be
with a reputable firm or to have a special credential or experience.
"Believe me, as a senior vice president of XYZ Firm, I would never
sell an investment that doesn't produce."
* Social
ConsensusÑleading you and your fellow seminar attendees
to believe that other savvy investors have already invested. "This
is how ___ got his start. I know it's a lot of money, but I'm in
this investment and so is my mom and half her church Ñ and it's
worth every dime."
* ReciprocityÑproviding
something, such as a meal or prize, that makes you feel obligated
to reciprocate or offering to do a small favor for you in return
for a big favor. "I'll give you a break on my commission if you
buy now Ñ half off."
* ScarcityÑcreating
a false sense of urgency by claiming limited supply. "There are
only two units left, so I'd sign today if I were you."
Here
are three key strategies you can use to help counter these persuasion
tactics and to distinguish potentially good investment offers from
bad ones:
1. Do your
homework before the seminarÑA legitimate securities salesperson
must be properly licensed, and his or her firm must be registered
with FINRA, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or a state securities
regulatorÑdepending on the type of business the firm conducts. And
an insurance agent must be licensed by the state insurance commissioner
where he or she does business. Here's how to check out seminar speakers
and sponsors:
* For a broker,
use FINRA BrokerCheck or call toll-free (800) 289-9999.
* For an investment
adviser, use the SEC's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure Web
site.
* For an insurance
agent, check with your state insurance department. You'll find contact
information through the National Association of Insurance Commissioners
(NAIC).
* For all sellers,
be sure to call your state securities regulator. You can find that
number in the government section of your local phone book or by
contacting the North American Securities Administrators Association
or (202) 737-0900.
2. Ask
questions while you're thereÑTurn the tables on the speaker,
and ask questions. Ask as many as you want until you are satisfied
you know what you are buying and understand the risks and costs:
* What are
the risks of this investment?
* How much does
it cost initially to purchase the investment?
* What, if any,
additional or ongoing costs will I have to pay?
* How liquid
is this investment? If I need to sell or cash in the investment,
how readily can I do so?
* Will my investment
be tied up for period of time? If so, for how long?
* What happens
if I decide to sell or cash in my investment? Are there surrender
charges? Other fees?
* For what type
of investor is this investment a good idea? For what type of investor
is this investment a bad idea?
* Is the investment
registered? If so, with which regulator? (See below for tips on
how to confirm what the speaker says.)
If the speaker
can't or won't answer your questions to your satisfaction, then
the investment is not right for you.
3. Decide
now to decide later, and do more homework after the eventÑCommit
to yourself before the seminar that you won't purchase anything
or open an account on the spot. Bear in mind that the seminar might
actually be an initial "soft sell"Ña lure to introduce you to the
product. The hard sell might come later during subsequent contacts
from the person or firm selling the product. That's why it important
to take time after the event to do some research on your own. Be
sure to consider all the pros and cons, especially the following:
* Is the investment
registered? Most investors will want to buy securities products
that are registered with the SEC or with state regulators. With
very few exceptions, companies must register their securities before
they can sell shares to the public. You can find out whether a product
is registered with the SEC by using the EDGAR database. Also call
your state securities regulator to find out what they know about
the company that issues the investment.
* What are the
risks? While the prospect of high rates of return might sound tempting,
remember that there may be additional risksÑor costsÑassociated
with the product.
The bottom
line is that savvy investors refuse to be rushed. RarelyÑif
everÑdo you have to invest your money on the spot. A good investment
will be available tomorrow or next week or next month, when you
are ready and understand where your money is going. While a free
meal or prize might be enticing, remember that there are unbiased,
noncommercial places to go for information about investing, including
regulators such as the SEC, FINRA and state securities regulators.
If
a Problem Occurs
If
you believe you have been defrauded or treated unfairly by a securities
professional or firm, please send us a written complaint. If you
suspect that someone you know has been taken in by a scam, be sure
to give us that tip. Here's how:
Online:
File
a Complaint (for you)
Mail or
Fax:
FINRA Complaints
and Tips
9509 Key West
Avenue
Rockville, MD
20850
Fax: (866) 397-3290
Additional
Resources
* FINRA
Fraud Fighting 101: Smart Tips for Older Investors
* FINRA
Investor Education
Foundation
|
|
Don't Harvest your
Fall Profits Before the Santa Rally.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks list.
48%
of the companies featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and
2005 -- 25 out of 52 companies -- DOUBLED from the time we listed
them in our feature article to the time when I took the company
off of the Hot News on Cool Stocks list. (See the chart in the article,
"25
of our Companies Have Doubled," from volume 4, issue
4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
Additionally,
the market performance of the companies that are featured in my
Hot News on Cool Stocks list are still keeping me at the top of
over 830 A-list pundits on TipsTraders.com
in annualized gains. Over the last few years, I've been in and out
of the #1 position, according to that independent tracking firm.
TipsTraders has me listed, again, as one of the top 10 stock pickers
in terms of all-time performance, with compounded cumulative gains
since 2003 of 205%. The Hot News lists below feature 41 companies
earning great gains, versus just three that are headed in the opposite
direction.
Market Report:
The
Federal Open Market Committee decided on September 18, 2007 to lower
its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 4-3/4 percent.
Was it the right thing? Cast your vote in our survey on the
home page.
The stock market immediately rallied on the news. (We hope that
you were prompt about reading our mid-month Hot News update on the
17th, the day before the FOMC action, and with your buying that
morning before the rally!) The rally continued through the last
half of September and surged again on the morning of October 1,
2007, topping the 14,000 mark in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
As a point of reference on how powerful these Fed decisions are,
oil also hit $81 on September 18, 2007. Typically that would be
enough to stop the dancing of the bulls, but the tune struck up
by a 50 points reduction was enticing enough to seduce even recalcitrant
investors from the sidelines.
Will someone please, please invent the solar plane and ask Tesla
Motors to mass produce their beautiful electric sports car and make
it more affordable, so that we do not have to worry so much about
the price of oil? And yes, with the modernization of China and India,
demand is going to be tough on oil, meaning the pressure on prices
is to stay elevated.
At any rate,
however, there's not much competition in real estate or bonds, so
the stock market is likely to be the default investment of choice
for money managers who cannot afford to keep their client's dough
on the sidelines. I'm optimistic for a strong Santa Rally, especially
in select industries, particularly clean energy. Buying in at a
good price is KEY. Don't get sucked into a high price to earnings
ratio in an economic environment that is seeing less than 4% growth
in GDP.
If you don't
know what GDP or price to earnings ratio are, and you are active
about investing, you should strongly consider coming to my January
2008 Living the Rich Life Retreat. Learn more about it in my teleconference
on November 7th, 2007 at 5:00 p.m. PT. Email Heather@NataliePace.com
to get the call-in instructions. Details of the retreat are also
found on the home page at NataliePace.com. Just click on the Living
the Rich Life banner ad.
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2006
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday ,9.28.2007
|
Gains 22
& 10 months
|
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,895.63
|
+28% & +11%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,243.74
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,701.50
|
+20% & +11%
|
|
S&P: 1,268.80
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,526.75
|
+20% & +8%
|
Many Companies
Featured in 2007 by Natalie Pace are far outperforming the general
markets. Go to the archived editions to review the headline
articles on each company. The current October ezine is on
the home page at NataliePace.com. (Just scroll to the bottom.)
January 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 1):
Suntech Power Holdings. +29%.
February 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 2):
Apple Computer. +80%.
March 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 3):
Wisdom Tree. -55%.
April 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 4):
World Water & Power. 227%.
May 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 5): Novastar
Financial (Short). 68% (negative returns, which we predicted)
June 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 6):
Altair NanoTecnology (+5.4%), Satcon (-8%) and UQM (-7.5%)
July 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 7):
Smith & Nephew (flat)
August 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 8):
Echelon Corporation +25%.
September 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 9):
Macerich +150% and National Health Investors (+3%)
October 2007 (vol. 4, iss. 10):
Hoku Scientific (just added)
Average Performance of Companies Featured in 2007: 43%
(or almost 4 times the average performance of the Dow and
NASDAQ in 2007)
Peace and Prosperity,
Natalie Pace
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
- Interest
Rates: In a Pause Pattern. The Federal Open Market Committee
cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points on September 18, 2007,
to 4 û%, after pausing nine times in a row (in August, June,
May, March and January 2007, and December, October, September
and August 2006). The federal funds rate remains at 4-3/4%.
- FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the press
release of
the September FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. It
is available online. Click on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov, to read! According to the Federal
Open Market Committee's press statement, "The tightening
of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing
correction and to restrain economic growth more generally."
The committee lowered the Fed Fund rate by 50 basis points "to
help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy
that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial
markets and to promote moderate growth over time."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2007 calendar is: October 30-31
(Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2008
(Tuesday-Wednesday). The fact that the Federal Open Market Committee
decided to increase the number of 2-day sessions from two to
four in 2007 is an indicator of the concern in the economy at
this juncture.
- Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check
out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There
are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, economists, respected money gurus, real estate
veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the Solar Decathlon
if you live on the East Coast and the California Governor and
First Lady's Conference for Women if you live on the West Coast.
Two VERY BIG, very important events with world leaders and visionary
policymakers. Also, don't miss my investor teleconference on
November 7th, 2007 at 5:00 p.m. PT. Your chance to
get your questions answered one on one, and learn how to become
a top stock picker yourself.
Bottom Line:
NataliePace.com is providing you with news and important information,
but you need to consult your financial planner to determine your
best strategy for using the information. Your investments and portfolio
should take into account your age, your retirement goals, your risk
tolerance and portfolio diversification. The stock portion of your
portfolio is a higher risk classification, where you ideally seek
to gain higher returns. As the NASD said in a recent investor alert,
don't bet the farm on the stock market.
NataliePace.com
is NOT a brokerage and doesn't operate or act like one. We are an
online media service with a mission of providing the news and information
you need to make better choices in business, investing and personal
prosperity. Always consult a trusted financial professional before
buying or selling any security.
The
Hot News on Cool Stocks List
Full disclosure:
I have listed the companies that I currently own under the column
"NP OWNS?" (I may have bought and/or sold a stock prior to this
publication.)
Hot Stocks
List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's
article. This may be a good buying opportunity. The companies that
are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good
buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing
well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your
certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment
strategy.
Highlighted
Companies (Hot List):
AU Optronics
(AUO)
Citigroup
(C)
Hoku
Scientific (HOKU)
Jet
Blue (JBLU)
UQM
Technologies (UQM)
WisdomTree
(WSDT)
Recent
Additions/Deletions:
Only AU
Optronics is highlighted on the Hot News list because Macerich and
National Health Investors are not considered to be in buying range.
1. AU Optronics
was added on October 3, 2007. I originally featured this company
that makes LCD screens for flat panel tvs, computers and cell phones
back in 2002. I'm re-adding the company because I believe it's poised
for strong performance in the seasonally strong final quarter of
the year. See below for the company fundamentals.
2. Macerich
(Deletion, profit-taking range). Read more on this company beneath
the Hot News List and in the September 2007 REITs article.
3. National
Health Investors (Addition, near profit-taking range). Read more
on this company in the Hot News List below and in the September
2007 REITs article.
|
Company
|
Symbol
|
P/E
(forward P/E)
|
Price 9.28.07
|
Earnings/
share
|
Sales/ Income
B=billion
M=million
|
52-wk high/
52-wk low
|
Market Cap/#
Shares
|
Debt/ Equity
Ratio
|
Net Profit Margin
|
|
AU Optronics
|
AUO
|
N/A
13.50
|
$17.33
|
-.19
|
10.71 B
-146.25 M
|
$18.18
$12.73
|
13.82 B
797.32 M
|
.89
|
-1.39%
|
Hot News
on Cool Stocks List
| Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
9.28.07 |
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
Altair Nanotechnology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$3.11
|
$3.28
|
$4.10
$2.48
|
+5.4%
|
|
Read the Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, iss. 6.
|
|
Apple Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$85.38
($83.93 on 2.27.07)
|
$153.47
|
$155.00
$62.70
|
+80% &
+83%
|
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
Google CEO Dr. Eric Schmidt joined the Apple board of directors
in Oct. 2006. Somehow Jobs skated through the options backdating
scandal, though former CFO Anderson and General Counsel Nancy
Heinen were nailed by the SEC. The craze over the iPhone,
iPod and all things Apple, and the clout that Jobs is gaining
with his alliances with Disney and Google should keep Apple
at the top of the technology performers over the next few
years at minimum. At 43.60, the P/E is no bargain, however,
last quarter, the growth was 88%, and that was before the
launch of the iPhone. Apple is a company you're going to want
to own - and everyone wishes they'd had the prescience to
buy in at a better price. On 7.25.07, Apple(R) announced
3Q earnings of: revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly
profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share. These results
compare to revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit
of $472 million, or $.54 per diluted share, in the year-ago
quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent, up from 30.3 percent
in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for
40 percent of the quarter's revenue.
Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh(R)
computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago
quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly
Mac(R) shipments by over 150,000. The Company also sold 9,815,000
iPods during the quarter, representing 21 percent growth over
the year-ago quarter.
According to Steve Jobs, Apple's
CEO, "iPhone is off to a great start -- we hope to sell our
one- millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter
of sales -- and our new product pipeline is very strong."
|
|
AU Optronics
|
No
|
AUO
|
$16.92
|
--
|
$18.18
$12.73
|
--
|
|
On Sept.
6, 2007, AUO announced another record high, with revenue up
9.9% from the previous month. On a year-over-year comparison,
August 2007 revenues increased significantly by 89%. Shipments
of large-sized panels(a) used in desktop monitor, notebook
PC, LCD TV and other applications for August also set a new
record of 7.23 million units, a 5.7% increase from July 2007.
Shipments of small-and-medium-sized panels broke the record
as well and presented a 22.1% increase from the previous month,
to 14.59 million units. On 7.26.07, the company reported 2Q
results of revenues up 31.3% (Quarter over Quarter) to $3.2
billion. Net income after tax of $182 million. Operating margin:
6.5%. AUO's Xiamen manufacturing facility began volume production
in April 2007. Production capacity will increase by 50% for
both China's monthly TV module capacity and small-and-medium
sized LCD module capacity.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS
4.31%!
|
No
|
C
|
$50.38
$45.74
|
$46.67
|
$57.00
$44.66
|
-7% &
+2%
|
|
Announced
earnings on 7.20.07. Refer to the M&A
Mania article in
volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup's appeal. Citigroup
announced on May 10, 2007, that Citigroup China would roll-out
two new investment products -- Structured Investment Accounts
-- for the Chinese consumer that would allow him/her to invest
in equities or currencies, with a principal protection feature.
Just a few years ago, all banks in China were state-owned
enterprises. Citigroup was first mover in the Chinese consumer
equity marketplace. Purchased AkBank (in Turkey) on 1.09.07.
Akbank currently has 675 branches and 1,617 ATMs and is a
premier, full-service retail, commercial, corporate and private
bank in Turkey, with assets of $39.6 billion, loans of $19.6
billion and a deposit base of $25.0 billion. It is the third
largest bank by assets and the most profitable private banking
institution in the country. Hired new CFO, Gary Crittenden,
on 2.25.07, to be effective 3.15.07. (Sallie Krawcheck will
return to her old job as Chairman and CEO of Citi's Global
Wealth Management.) Sandy Weill spoke on CNBC on 2.26.07 on
having such a big company with an umbrella over many divisions.
He says, "I'd rather be with a company that has a strong
capital base, diversified by companies and regions, in the
event of a downturn." Citigroup acquired servicing rights
for $45 billion worth of loans formerly held in ACC's Ameriquest
company. Terms of the deal, expected to close Sept. 1, were
not disclosed.
Citigroup
is the nation's largest financial institution.
|
|
Disney
Dividends: .92%
|
No
|
DIS
|
$25.08
|
$34.39
|
$36.79
$23.77
|
+37%
|
|
Earnings of 8.1.07: $9 billion
in revenue, over $8.5 a year ago. Net income was $1.178 billion
over $1,125 a year ago. Disney/Pixar/ABC, distributed by Apple
iTunes. HmmmÉ The most successful animation film company meets
the most successful family media company meets the most successful
new media device, the iPod. Sounds like the happiest place
on Earth to us. The largest individual stockholder is Steve
Jobs. During the first six months of fiscal 2007, the Company
repurchased 96 million shares for approximately $3.3 billion,
of which 67 million shares for $2.3 billion were purchased
in the second quarter. On May 1, 2007, the Board of Directors
of the Company increased the share repurchase authorization
to a total of 400 million shares. Pirates of the
Caribbean blockbusters equal film profits, DVD profits
and renewed interest in the theme parks! According to the
annual report, CEO Bob Iger received $22 million in compensation
last year (not including stock options). His pay included
$2 million salary and a $15 million cash bonus. CEO Bob Iger
was one of our Executives
of the Year
in 2007. Read the
article in vol. 4, iss. 1. We'll be monitoring the possibility
of strikes by the Screen Actor's Guild, Director's Guild and
Writer's Guild in the October mid-month update. The WGA contract
is up on October 31, while the SAG and DGA contracts expire
in June 2008. Although the studios have all ramped up production
to stave off the effects of a strike by the unions, a strike
could certainly parch the investor appetite in film companies,
even if it doesn't cripple profits. So, far, the word is that
the writers have needs that they want addressed. Typically,
the writers work without a contract, and strengthen their
position with the alliance of SAG and DGA in June, rather
than force the issue alone, however, there is no foolproof
crystal ball in the world of organized labor versus corporations.
|
|
eBay
|
Yes
|
eBAY
|
$29.75
|
$39.02
|
$39.54
$22.83
|
+33%
|
|
Announces earnings on 10.17.07.
See the articles, "eBay's
Skype
Outpaces News Corp's MySpace,"
in volume 3, issue 9, "Executives
of the Year"
in January 2007,
which featured CEO Meg Whitman (vol. 4, iss. 1). Skype's new
products (Wi-Fi VOIP phones in particular and associated hardware)
will likely start adding a significant chunk to the eBay bottom
in 2007, since Skype is growing faster than MySpace in terms
of registered users. eBay bought StubHub Inc. for $310 million
on 1.12.07. 3Q 2007 earnings were announced on 7.18.07: record
consolidated Q2-07 net revenues of $1.83 billion, representing
a growth rate of 30% year over year. GAAP net income in Q2-07
increased 50% year over year to $376 million, or $0.27 earnings
per diluted share. Exceeded analyst earnings estimates for
second straight quarter.
|
|
Echelon
|
No
|
ELON
|
$20.04
|
$25.01
|
$32.49
$7.19
|
+25%
|
|
Read the article, "Green
San Jose Company,"
in vol. 4, iss. 8. Governor Schwarzenegger (CA) took Secretary
General of the U.N. Ban Ki-Moon on a tour of Echelon's HQ
in Silicon Valley the week before ELON confirmed an order
from Russia valued at $35 million. What other orders could
come into this company that reported sales of $26.7 million
in the 2nd quarter, over 19.4 million a year ago. On July
10, 2007, Echelon signed a contract with McDonald's to help
it reduce energy costs and improve efficiency.
|
|
Eastern Europe -- U.S. Global Investors
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$33.87
|
$55.21
|
$55.21
$23.02
|
+63%
|
|
Vanguard seems to be in the right
countries, and within those countries, in the right growing
sectors. See vol.
2, issue 8. Great
way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy
rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund
should reflect the difference.
|
|
GAP
|
No
|
GPS
|
$20.30
$17.50 (3.16.07)
|
$18.44
|
$21.39
$15.91
|
-9% &
+5%
|
|
See the article, "Gap's
Inc(RED)ible Campaign,"
from vol. 3, iss. 12. Sales are still weak, but the company
is beating analyst expectations and searching for the perfect
design and management team. The first hire was impressive
indeed! The Gap hired Todd Oldham as the design creative director
for Old Navy, and immediately the television ads began to
pop with sensuality and style. Who will helm The Gap's creative
ship? It's hard to get too excited about a man whose last
job was in Canada at Shoppers Drug Mart, but if the Oldham
hiring is any example of his skills (it was genius), then
perhaps Glenn Murphy, 45, Gap Inc.'s Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer, is a lot more fashionable than his pedigree would
show.
In the "show me your friends
and I'll tell you who you are" category, the friends
surrounding Gap these days are mighty, powerful and successful.
You've got Goldman Sachs advising them on the turnaround strategy.
GAP is one of an elite group of companies that are attached
to PRODUCT (RED), the pet project of Bono and Bobby Shriver,
alongside Apple, American Express, Motorola, Emporio Armani
and more. The fast, definitive action, the ongoing commitment
to Bono and Bobby Shriver's PRODUCT (RED) and having Goldman
Sachs in their corner really sets the stage for some promising
surprises for this legacy clothing retailer. Especially if
the team comes up with a winning designer. Things could hardly
be worse for the Gap, but, with the talent assembled for this
turnaround, we're optimistic that it is always darkest before
the dawn. Upgraded from Neutral to Positive by Susquehanna
Financial on 8.28.07. Beat analyst earnings estimates on 8.24.07.
|
|
Genentech
|
No
|
DNA
|
$13.50
$81.13
$72.60
(6.24.07)
|
$78.02
|
$100.20
$72.60
|
+478% &
-4% &
+7%
|
|
Announced its 2007 second quarter
earnings on Wednesday, July 11, 2007, of U.S. product sales
of $2.149 billion, a 25 percent increase over U.S. product
sales of $1.716 billion in the second quarter of 2006. Genentech
has initiated eight Phase III clinical trials, and plans to
resubmit the sBLA for Avastin with chemo treating breast cancer
to the FDA in August. Major growth for a big cap, and trading
at prices not seen in over two years! Purchased Tanox on 1.16.07.
Received 8 FDA approvals in 2006. DNA is a Great Blue Chip
Hold for your long-term portfolio. Genentech specializes in
DNA-based cancer treatments that might ultimately eliminate
the need for chemotherapy! (Avastin chokes off the blood supply
to the tumor.) Biotechnology is a volatile sector, but this
popular #2 biotechnology company has a big pipeline of drugs.
Cancer drugs are a $20+ billion annual market, and DNA has
appx. $8-9 billion of the market cornered. Avastin alone is
expected to bring in $2 billion in annual sales in 2007. Tarceva
is rocketing up the sales charts, with sales of $402 million
in 2006, and $204 million in the first two quarters of 2007.
DNA's P/E ratio is well below other biotechnology growth companies.
|
|
Google (Green)
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$85
|
$567.27
|
$571.79
$398.19
|
+573%
|
|
Since January 2007, there have
been over 650 "Statements of Beneficial Changes in Ownership"
filed with the SEC. eBay just pulled a large block of ads
that were on Google, and placed those ads on other search
engines, like Yahoo, MSN and AOL. The loss of revenue should
be under 2%, according to analysts. Google joined the S&P
500 on 3.31.06. Great Blue Chip Hold for your long-term portfolio.
Owns YouTube.com, one of the most popular sites on the web,
which got hit with a billion dollar lawsuit from Viacom on
3.13.07. Dr. Eric Schmidt was one of our Executives
of the Year
in 2007. Read the
article in vol. 4, iss. 1. The growth continues to be amazing,
and the share price continues to be amazingly volatile! The
savvy day-trader would buy on disappointment and sell on hot
headlines. The long-term investor would buy at the 52-week
low and hold to will to the kids. (Notice that Google is NOT
highlighted and is not considered to be a good buy right now.)
|
|
Hoku Scientific
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$9.68
|
--
|
$14.55
$2.52
|
--
|
|
Read "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in
the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 10. Contracted to build
a polysilicon facility in Idaho and supply Suntech, Sanyo
and Solar-Fabrik. Exiting the fuel cell business, in favor
of solar, according to the fiscal 1st Q 2008 earnings
report.
|
|
Intel
|
No
|
INTC
|
$19.13
|
$25.86
|
$27.71
$16.84
|
+35%
|
|
See "Apple
Chips," article
in vol. 4, iss 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices
in products and price. AMD is fighting back in court and by
slashing costs. The price war is tough on both, but easier
for Goliath to win. Intel's sales were down (largely
due to AMD competition) from $38.8B in 2005 to $35.38B in
2006. A Good Blue Chip long term hold for your portfolio,
with dividends.
|
|
Jet Blue
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
JBLU
|
$12.81
$9.22
(9.28.07)
|
$9.22
|
$17.02
$8.53
|
-28% &
+2%
|
|
If you
invest in JetBlue, bear in mind that a spike in gas or oil
prices would severely ping profitability at the airline. Fuel
is one of the biggest expenses of any carrier, and operating
margins are sliver thin. George Soros and David Neeleman (CEO)
both sold millions at the end of May, at $10/share. Both still
have millions of shares remaining as well. Because of the
proportions of this selling (and the amount of shares both
have remaining), the proximity of the sales and the relatively
low price of the stock, it almost smells of an operations-type
funding deal, rather than lining one's own pockets. Any way,
with higher rates and seasonally strong travel, the quarterly
earnings should improve for the next two quarters. The company
has been able to raise fares, partially offsetting the oil
spike.
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
|
No
|
JNJ
|
$61.65
$59.99
|
$65.70
|
$69.41
$59.77
|
+7% &
+10%
|
|
Read the article, "Bionic
Baby Boomers," in vol. 4, iss. 7. Johnson &
Johnson is a mega-cap corporation with many products, and
a small presence in the hip resurfacing arena. Growth is 16%
annually, with a 17.40 P/E. Stable, dividend-paying Blue Chip.
|
|
Krispy Kreme
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
KKD
|
$10.22
$6.77
(8.15.07)
$3.09 (9.16.07)
|
$4.00
|
$13.83
$2.91
|
-61%
-41% &
+29%
|
|
Have you visited the Coffee Bean
and Tea Leaf shops lately? Seen Krispy Kreme doughnuts in
the pastry case? KKD is expanding into Asia - namely Macao,
the Phillipines, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan. There are
currently approximately 296 Krispy Kreme stores and 99 satellites
operating system-wide in 41 U.S. states, Australia, Canada,
Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, the Philippines,
the Republic of South Korea, United Arab Emirates and the
United Kingdom. If you love their product, KKD's CEO has proven
to be a turnaround specialist, and he's done a great job over
the past year. KKD caught up with all of their SEC filings
on 1.29.07, and is looking to the future now. KKD refinanced
old debt on 2.17.07. Lynn Crump-Caine (a 30-year McDonald's
veteran) and C. Stephen Lynn (former Chairman and CEO of Shoney's
and Sonic Corp.) were recently elected for director posts.
CFO, general counsel and board member Bob Strickland have
been replaced at KKD. Missed analyst earnings estimates on
9.15.07 for second straight quarter. Revenues for the second
quarter of fiscal 2008 decreased 7.5% to $104.1 million compared
to $112.5 million in the second quarter of last year. Company
Stores revenues decreased 4.7% to $75.3 million, Franchise
revenues were flat at $5.1 million and KK Supply Chain revenues
decreased 16.8% to $23.7 million.
The net loss for the second quarter
of fiscal 2008 was $27.0 million, or $0.42 per diluted share,
compared to a net loss of $4.6 million, or $0.07 per diluted
share, in the comparable period last year.
Will any one of these geniuses
figure out why Vanilla Bake Shop is all the rage and KKD has
become a ghost town? (It's certainly not because America has
given up its sweet toothÉ)
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$35.30 (11.11)
|
$58.86
|
$68.80
$31.94
|
+67%
|
|
MEMC was added to the S&P500
in August of 2007. Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in vol. 3, iss. 10. Silicon is in high demand, and
MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers
accordingly. On 7.25, the company reported earnings: 2Q net
sales were $472.7 million, which represents an increase of
7.3% from first quarter 2007 net sales of $440.4 million and
an increase of 27.6% over second quarter 2006 net sales of
$370.5 million. GAAP net income was $163.6 million MEMC will
receive $2.5 billion to $3 billion in revenue from sales of
the wafers over the 10-year period from Taiwan's Gintech Energy
(solar). MEMC also will be eligible to purchase a 10 percent
interest in Gintech, as well as acquire the rights to a parcel
of land of about 1.7 hectares, or about 4.2 acres, located
within the Hsinchu Science Park. Supplies silicon ingots to
Suntech Power Holdings, and owns a stake in that company as
well. The CEO has cashed out over $78 million, and plans to
continue to "diversify" his holdings through 2010.
Investors have cashed out over $3 billion. This is colossal
insider selling, however, after decades of solar energy being
out of favor, this may be the first time the investors have
been able to roll out their decades long investments. According
to Memc's Chief Executive Officer, Nabeel Gareeb, "I
am taking advantage of this open window to directly exercise
and sell approximately 10% of my outstanding options as part
of my estate diversification plan. I believe that MEMC remains
on a positive trajectory as indicated by the results over
the last five years, and I am confident about our future as
indicated by the long-term nature of this plan." Implemented
a 500 million share repurchase program in the 2nd
quarter of 2007.
|
|
National Health Investors
|
No
|
NHI
|
$29.89
|
$30.91
|
$35.54
$25.78
|
+3.4%
|
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article and accompanying stock report card. This
is a company that I featured in the April 2004 ezine at, believe
it or not, $29.89. There are rumors of a merger. We'll watch
this in the next few months to see if the merger comes to
fruition and/or if the Santa Rally pushes up the stock.
|
|
NetGear
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$12.42
|
$30.42
|
$41.33
$16.64
|
+145%
|
|
Watch Natalie
Pace's Exclusive Forbes.com
Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo
(from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the
Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06),
NetGear is on Business Week's Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy's Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear's Skype
phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone
is available online. It's a great product that allows you
to connect to Skype and call anyone worldwide anywhere there
is a WiFi signal. An October report from Jupiter Research
predicted that 20.4 million U.S. households will subscribe
to some form of Internet-based broadband phone service by
2010. With all of the promising new products (Skype phones),
and the product alliance with Avaya, NetGear is poised to
continue strong growth. Earnings on 7.26.07: 2Q 2007 net revenue
increased to $164.3 million, 26% year-over-year growth. Net
income of 6.1 million, or $0.17 per diluted share. This net
income was a decrease of 38% compared to net income of $9.8
million for the second quarter of 2006 and a decrease of 56%
compared to net income of $14.0 million in the first quarter
of 2007. Net revenue by geography: North America, 38%; Europe,
Middle-East and Africa, 52%; Asia Pacific, 10%.
|
|
News Corp.
Vol. 2, iss. 10
Dividends: .54%
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
NWS.A
|
$15.88
|
$21.99
|
$25.40
$18.18
|
+38%
|
|
Owns Fox TV and film studios, MySpace,
and print publications. Just sold DirecTV. News Corp. has
completed $2.5 billion of a $3.0 billion buyback program initiated
last June, and increased the stock buyback program to $6.0
billion. DVDs include: Ice Age: The Meltdown and X-Men. Theatrical
hits include: Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Little Miss
Sunshine, Napoleon Dynamite, Die Hard and The Simpsons Movie.
MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson were
our Executives
of the Year in 2006.
Read the article in vol. 3, iss. 1. Spam issues have lead
California teens to jump over to FaceBook. If Myspace were
led by less capable, passionate executives, I'd be plenty
worried right now. We'll monitor, but with the addition of
video and the strong music fan base, it's hard to imagine
MySpace imploding. According to Gabe, 17, from Santa Monica,
"I use Facebook more. It's become the easier thing. MySpace
has been corrupted by aliens - all of these hackers who send
people adverts." We'll be monitoring the possibility
of strikes by the Screen Actor's Guild, Director's Guild and
Writer's Guild in the October mid-month update. The WGA contract
is up on October 31, while the SAG and DGA contracts expire
in June 2008. Although the studios have all ramped up production
to stave off the effects of a strike by the unions, a strike
could certainly parch the investor appetite in film companies,
even if it doesn't cripple profits. So, far, the word is that
the writers have needs that they want addressed. Typically,
the writers work without a contract, and strengthen their
position with the alliance of SAG and DGA in June, rather
than force the issue alone, however, there is no foolproof
crystal ball in the world of organized labor versus corporations.
|
|
Opsware
See
issue 44. 1st featured Dec. 2002.
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
OPSW
|
$1.80
|
$14.23
|
$14.25
$6.25
|
+690%
|
|
Hewlett-Packard announced that
they would be acquiring Opsware for $14.25/share on 7.23.07!
Named to Deloitte and Touche's
prestigious Technology Fast 50 Program for Silicon Valley
on 10.26.06. It was announced on 2.13.06 that Cisco will distribute
Opsware's products worldwide and that the companies will collaborate
on advanced network management solutions built on Opsware's
Network Automation System. CEO Ben Horowitz said, in an interview
during March of 2007, that the Cisco deal just started kicking
in August of 2006, and that the best is yet to come. Opsware
automates the complete IT lifecycle and enables IT to automatically
discover, provision, patch, configure, secure, change, scale,
audit, recover, consolidate, migrate, and reallocate servers,
network devices and applications. Over 350 of the world's
largest companies, outsourcers and government agencies use
Opsware to deliver this new, automated model of IT. Read the
Company
of the Year article
in vol. 1, iss. 44. Surpassed $100 million in revenue for
full year 2006 ($101.7 million), up 67% over the prior year!
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
Trading near 52-week low.
NataliePace.com's 2005 Company
of the Year. Read vol. 1, iss. 56.
RISK: MEDIUM/HIGH
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$36.86
$33.00 (4.1.07)
|
$33.99
|
$43.17
$30.17
|
-8% &
+3%
|
|
Announced 2Q 2007 earnings on July
30, 2007. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer pill,"
and sales have been exploding, up to $402 million in 2006,
after being approved by the FDA in just 2004. OSIP is a partner
of Genentech (DNA) and Roche. OSIP is now testing Tarceva
as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer.
Industry sales data has placed the cancer drug market's value
at more than $20 billion annually and it is growing fast.
Announced 1Q results on April 26, 2007 of net income of $19.7
million, compared with $376,000 a year ago. Revenues jumped
to $77 million from $59 million a year ago, an increase of
31%.
|
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$1.24
$1.04
(9.1.07)
|
$1.14
|
$1.73
$.73
|
-8% &
+10%
|
|
Read the article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6. Reported 2Q 2007 results on August 9,
2007. "This has been a strong revenue growth quarter for SatCon,"
said David Eisenhaure, President and Chief Executive Officer.
"As we have been predicting for some time, the Photovoltaic
Inverter market opportunity is experiencing rapid growth and
we have been positioned well to take advantage of the technical
strength of our products." Revenues increased 31% over last
year to $11.7 million. Photovoltaic Inverters represented
$3.8 million or over 30% of that total, a 70% increase over
last year - highlighting SATC's growth in this major market
segment. Backlog grew to a record $48 million at the end of
the quarter, an 80% increase over last year. Projecting revenues
of $50 million for the year with an expectation of over $30
million of revenue in the second half of 2007. This compares
to 2006 annual revenue of $34 million, an increase of over
47%. Needs additional working capital to fund growth. Operating
Losses for the second Quarter of 2007 were $3.5 million. Warrant
holders exercised warrants at $1.31/share - a premium on the
common stock price, bringing in $4.7 million in revenue needed
for working capital. Who are SatCon's customers? On June 27,
2007, SatCon announced that its PowerGate(R) commercial grade
inverters had been installed as an integral part of Google's
corporate headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW
system is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the
United States.
|
|
Sirius
$6.3 Bil Market Cap
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
SIRI
|
$3.85
$2.90 (6.1.07)
|
$3.49
|
$4.84
$2.72
|
-9% &
+20%
|
|
Sirius and XM Satellite Radio issued
a joint press release on February 20, 2007 saying that they
will combine the companies, for an "enterprise"
value of $13 billion and net debt of $1.6 billion. Mel Karmazin
remains CEO of the combined company, while Gary Parsons, the
CEO of XM-SR, will become the Chairman. The merger is being
challenged in Congress and hearings have begun in the matter.
Sirius and XM issued a joint release, saying, "The commission's
published rules do not prohibit one satellite radio licensee
from acquiring control of the other." Thomas Hazlett, the
former Chief Economist of the Federal Communications Commission,
Professor of Law & Economics at George Mason University,
published a report on June 14th saying that the
merger increases audio competition and will "predictably
enhance consumer welfare." This story is developing and
we will keep you posted. In the meantime, Sirius has launched
backseat tv on Chrysler cars beginning in 2008, and is a factory
installed option for Land Rovers and Mini hard tops. Reported
earnings on 7.31.07: Revenue Up 51% to $226.4 Million. Company
Exceeds 7.1 Million Subscribers. Subscriber Additions of 561,493.
According to Mel Karmazin, CEO, "We continue to work
with the FCC and the DOJ to make the case that the merger
offers more choices, including a la carte offerings, and lower
prices for subscribers, and we continue to expect that the
merger will be completed by year-end." SIRIUS' net loss improved
by 44% to ($134.1) million, or ($0.09) per share, for the
second quarter of 2007, from ($237.8) million, or ($0.17)
per share, for the second quarter of 2006. Exceeded analyst
earnings estimates for second straight quarter.
|
|
Smith & Nephew
|
No
|
SNN
|
$60.94
$57.17
(9.16.07)
|
$61.24
|
$64.35
$36.70
|
flat &
+7%
|
|
Read the article in vol.
4, iss. 7. Smith and Nephew are the first movers in the
fast-growing US hip resurfacing marketplace. Price-to-cash-flow
ratio well below industry average on 9.16.07.
Withdrew 185 of its BIRMINGHAM
HIP* Resurfacing System implants following a packaging error
at a subcontractor on Aug. 16, 2007. Smith & Nephew's
investigation confirms that this problem is confined to a
small number of batches. A number of implants have already
been recovered in their packaging. Proactive notification
is a good sign of the moral code of the executive suite, but
bad products can be Lawsuit City if they were implanted. This
is a developing story.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Small Cap
RISK: MED HIGH
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$17.52
|
$37.71
|
$41.40
$20.23
|
+115%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and
vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, iss. 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr.
Charles Zhang
in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com
Video Network.
Sohu was selected
as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS)
for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Could be some bumps
in the road between now and Beijing Olympics 2008, which should
ultimately be worth it. Share price jumped in early July 2007
and has been strong since!
|
|
SunTech Holdings Co. Ltd (Green
& Chinese Co. ADR)
|
No
|
STP
|
$25.83
$34.01 (1.1.07)
|
$39.90
|
$44.94
$21.57
|
+54% & +29%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 1 for our Company
of the Year article,
which names SunTech the Company of 2007. Beat analyst earnings
expectations on 8.10.07. Also, check out vol.
3, issue 10,
and vol.
2, iss. 12 for
our article on solar energy. On February 21, 2007, Suntech's
CEO, Dr. Shi joined the Global Roundtable on Climate Change
which is part of the Earth Institute of Columbia University
in the City of New York. The Global Roundtable brings together
more than 100 high-level, critical stakeholders from all regions
of the world. Suntech will supply solar modules with an aggregate
output of 23.2MW to Atersa for installation in the Photovoltaic
Grid Connection Park in the Extremadura region of Spain, the
world's largest solar power plant. SunTech is also the official
solar provider of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so expect that
it will enjoy a lot of buzz over the next 18 months. Announced
earnings on 8.9.07: total net revenues grew 147.7% year-over-year
to $317.4 million. Annualized PV cell production capacity
expansion is on track to reach 480MW by the end of 2007. "Our
sales demand has been so strong that we have already signed
contracts to deliver over 150MW of our PV modules in 2008.
To put that in perspective, that is nearly equal to Suntech's
entire output in 2006,'' CEO Shi said, commenting on the development
of "semiconductor finger technology." Dr. Shi is
one of our Executives
of the Year
in 2007. Read the
article in vol. 4, iss. 1. Suntech picked up more clients
at the 2007 Solar Conference in Long Beach in August 2007,
adding Irvine, Calif.'s Lumeta and Los Gatos, Calif.-based
Akeena Solar. In June 2007, Suntech signed a 10 year supply
deal for polysilicon from Hawaii's Hoku Scientific.
|
|
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
See vol. 2, iss. 8
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$20.72
|
$36.49
|
$37.00
$12.00
|
+76%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and
vol.
2, issue 8 for
articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global
with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU
that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France.
International investing in the right sectors and countries
pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its
category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating
on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund
back in August of 2005!)
|
|
Time-Warner
(owns AOL)
Dividends!
RISK: Low
|
No
|
TWX
|
$16.76
|
$18.36
|
$23.15
$15.70
|
+10%
|
|
See vol. 3, issue 9, "eBay's
Skype
Outpaces News Corp.'s MySpace"
for a report card that features Time-Warner. TWX's The
Departed won Best Picture of the Year! AOL and Time-Warner
have finally figured out how to work together. Chairman &
CEO Richard D. Parsons, successfully fought off Carl Icahn,
and Mr. Parsons has proven to be a decisive and visionary
leader in other matters as well. TWX is buying back company
stock, and announced a new $5 billion repurchase program on
8.1.07. According to Mr. Parsons, "We remain committed to
delivering superior returns to our shareholders by driving
execution, generating industry-leading operating and financial
results, and allocating our capital effectively. In addition
to targeting resources to key growth areas of our businesses,
our $20 billion share repurchase program -- which recently
surpassed one billion shares of our common stock bought to
date -- continues to be an attractive investment at current
price levels." Reports 3Q earnings on Nov. 7, 2007. P/E to
growth ratio suggests stock may be undervalued, according
to MSN.com on 9.16.07. 2Q 2007: Revenues rose 6% over the
same period in 2006 to $11.0 billion, led by growth at the
Cable segment. As of June 30, 2007, Net Debt was $35.0 billion,
up $1.6 billion from $33.4 billion at the end of 2006, due
primarily to the Company's prior stock repurchase program.
(Market value was $68.18 billion on 9.16.07.) We'll be monitoring
the possibility of strikes by the Screen Actor's Guild, Director's
Guild and Writer's Guild in the October mid-month update.
The WGA contract is up on October 31, while the SAG and DGA
contracts expire in June 2008. Although the studios have all
ramped up production to stave off the effects of a strike
by the unions, a strike could certainly parch the investor
appetite in film companies, even if it doesn't cripple profits.
So, far, the word is that the writers have needs that they
want addressed. Typically, the writers work without a contract,
and strengthen their position with the alliance of SAG and
DGA in June, rather than force the issue alone, however, there
is no foolproof crystal ball in the world of organized labor
versus corporations.
|
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$44.08 &
$43.18 (6.15.07)
|
$56.97
|
$73.06
$17.05
|
+29% & +32%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
"Green
Hits the Mainstream,"
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for other articles
on solar energy. This is a profitable solar energy company,
based out of China. The international management team is very
strong, as are sales, growth and profitability. Share price
jumped in early July 2007. Institutional holdings increased
significantly on 9.12.07, per MSN.com. Announced 2Q 2007 earnings
on 8.23.07. Net revenues increased 77% over the last quarter
and 160% over the last year to $75.3 million. Net income increased
51.4% over the last quarter and 540% over the last year to
$7.2 million.
|
|
UQM Technologies
|
No
|
UQM
|
$3.97
$3.52
(9.16.07)
|
$3.67
|
$5.48
$2.19
|
-7.5%
&
+4%
|
|
Read the
article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars,"
from vol. 4, iss. 6.
|
|
U.S. Gold
RISK: VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$4.00 on
3.16.07
|
$6.27
|
$10.30
$.35
|
+24% & +57%
|
|
Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
See the feature interview with CEO
and Chairman Rob McEwen
in vol. 3, iss. 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace's Q&A with Rob McEwen
on the Forbes.com Video Network.
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it
a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. Rob McEwen, Chairman
and CEO, was awarded the "Most Innovative CEO" award in 2006
by Canadian Business magazine in its fifth annual "All-Star
Execs roundup." Motley Fool added U.S. Gold to their
"5 Low-Priced, High-Star Stocks" on 2.6.07. As more
press comes on board, the price should reflect the wooing
of Wall Street investors. (Now, if the company strikes gold,
we'll all be geniusesÉ) "Our acquisitions are complete and
US Gold's property has grown from 36 square miles to approximately
250 square miles in Nevada," said Rob McEwen, Chairman and
CEO, in a press release issued on 6.12.07. "Our drill results
are similar to early-stage discovery holes at major Nevada
deposits that host millions of ounces of gold. We are continuing
our aggressive drilling and exploration program at our top-priority
targets: Keystone, Limousine Butte, Gold Bar, and Tonkin."
Read the article above for more detailed info on this gold
exploration company. Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, was appointed
to the Order of Canada, the country's highest civilian honor
on July 3, 2007. Rob is one of 71 new appointments announced
by Her Excellency, the Right Honorable Michaelle Jean, Governor
General of Canada. U.S. Gold was added to the Russell 3000
on July 3, 2007.
|
|
World Water & Power
VERY HIGH RISK
Trading off the boards
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$.59
|
$1.93
|
$2.52
$.14
|
+227%
|
|
See vol. 4, iss. 4 for the article
Green
Hits the Mainstream,
and vol. 3, issue 10, and vol. 2, iss. 12 for articles on
solar energy. This is a very high-risk company in the solar-energy/water
purification sector. CEO Quentin Kelly was invited by Governor
Schwarzenegger to join him on the Governor's tour of Canada,
during the California-Canada Conference on Clean Technologies
in Vancouver. Mr. Kelley was selected due to WWAT's leading
role in building prominent solar energy projects in California,
including the recently-announced Fresno airport solar complex
as well as the largest solar-powered agricultural system in
the world and only self-sustaining water utility. Announced
on August 9, 2007, that they would be delivering 10 Mobile
MaxPure units for use in Darfur, Sudan. The portable solar
driven water pumping and purifying units, purchased for an
aggregate of $775,000, will provide approximately 30,000 gallons
of safe drinking water daily at each of 10 sites across the
ravaged desert region. Deliveries are scheduled for late September/October
with installation in October/November. Financial terms of
the contract were not disclosed. Financial results on 8.13.07:
Revenue for the second quarter was $2.2 million, compared
with $1.8 million reported in the second quarter of 2006.
Net loss for the second quarter of 2007 was $2.8 million,
or $(0.02) per share, compared to a loss of $2.0 million,
or $(0.01) per share, in the second quarter of 2006. The 2007
second quarter reflects an increase in marketing and sales
expense tied to the Company's aggressive growth goals. According
to Quentin T. Kelly, Chairman and CEO, "We have a $200 million
pipeline of potential contracts plus additional large, pending
projects. We believe WorldWater has the unique, proprietary
technology and resources to offer the most cost-efficient
solutions to a world demanding clean, renewable energy."
|
|
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
(Green ETF)
|
No
|
PBW
|
$16.82
|
$22.89
|
$24.08
$14.97
|
+36%
|
|
See vol.
3, issue 10, and vol.
2, iss. 12 for articles on solar energy. This is a
well-managed "smart" ETF, which updates its holdings
regularly, but falls and rises on the good or bad news of
alternative energy companies which it may not even hold in
the portfolio. Fell earlier this year on bad news at Evergreen
Solar, with regard to silicon supply, even though Evergreen
Solar was not a major holding. Top holdings on 1.12.07: SunPower,
OM Group, Ballard, Energy Conversion Devices, SunTech, Ormat,
Evergreen, Ormat and MEMC Electronic Materials.
|
|
WisdomTree
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$8.70
$3.65
(9.16.07)
|
$3.93
|
$9.94
$3.15
|
-55% &
+7.6%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees." This is a well-managed "smart"
ETF, which updates its holdings regularly, and trades on earnings
instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a war chest
of capital and a former SEC chairman as one of the senior
advisors.
|
|
Yahoo
|
No
|
YHOO
|
$27.71
$24.38 (9.1.07)
|
$26.84
|
$33.74
$22.27
|
-3% &
+10%
|
|
Annouces earnings on 10.16.07.
We just re-added Yahoo to the list effective 6.15.07. Over
the past few years, Yahoo has waxed and waned (and as a result
has been on this list and on the Cooling Off list). New President/former
CFO Susan Decker reports that,"As we look ahead, we are very
excited about the transformational changes taking place on
the Internet, creating greater opportunities for both users
and marketers, and we are confident that Yahoo! has the right
combination of assets to help lead this evolution." Yahoo
execs have been saying that for years now, and still under-delivering
relative to their peers, like Google, but with Terry Semel
coaching (as non-executive Chairman) and Jerry Wang leading
(as CEO) can Yahoo jumpstart their stalled potential? Why
do we believe her this time? eBay's CEO Meg Whitman has just
put a lot of ads on Yahoo, which were previously the exclusive
domain of Google. According to the Associated Press, the move
is "a test to see whether it could get more bang for
its buck if it increased its spending on other search engines,
including Yahoo, IAC/InterActiveCorp.'s Ask.com and Microsoft
Corp.'s MSN." If Yahoo really does have their game together
this time, then the ad dollars might stick around and even
grow. We'll keep reporting more, but with the sleeping giant
Yahoo, which still tops the Internet sites with registered
users, time online and page views (along with Google, Myspace,
AOL and MSN), even the first sign of waking is worth noting!
Former CEO Terry Semel stepped down officially on June 18,
in an amicable move, without taking a severence compensation
with him. The Financial Times reports that his compensation
package of $71.7M in 2006 was the highest among S&P500
chief executives surveyed by The Associated Press. Semel has
already exercised options valued at more than $450 million,
not including the 2006 compensation (so he can afford to "resign"
and forego the severance package). The new advertising platform,
code-named Panama, is expected to help revenues in the current
quarter, according to the Financial Times.
|
Sony (NYSE:
SNE) and Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) both had great runs for the list! LifeCell
(NASDAQ: LIFC) posted over 180% gains before being moved to the
Cooling Off list. Bioteq Environmental (TSE: BQE) had 144% gains.
Rio Tinto was removed on 11.15.2006 with 145% gains. Las Vegas Sands
was removed on January 5, 2007 with 139% gains, Agilent on 2.1.07
with flat performance, and RELM Wireless was taken off with 3% gains
on 2.1.07. Blockbuster ran up 82.5% in gains, which we cashed in
on February 12, 2007. Intuit, deleted in June 2007, was a wash for
us - up and down. Macerich posted 150% gains between May 2003 (when
it was first featured) and September 2007 (when it was removed from
the list).
Recently
Deleted:
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$33
(2003)
|
$82.40
(9.1.07)
|
$103.59
$71.22
|
+150%
|
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article. We first featured Macerich in May of 2003,
when it was trading at $33/share. In September, the signs
were pointing toward a cooling off in retail shopping center
REITs.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Great
Companies. The companies that are listed are worthy of watching.
Some we're watching to add to the Cooling Off list and some for
the Hot List.
Recent
Additions:
Macerich
added on 9.1.07
Boston
Properties added on 9.1.07
General
Motors added on 10.01.07
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
9.28.07
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Advanced Micro Devices
|
No
|
AMD
|
$16.22
|
$13.20
|
$42.70
$12.10
|
-18.6%
|
|
Read the "Apple Chips"
article in vol. 4, iss. 2 for our take on the current battle
between AMD and Intel. AMD's strategy of litigate to win loses,
in our view. In tech, the geeks beat the suits. Better products
win, not lawsuits. The most recent losses that AMD has taken
(due to an acquisition they made and the price squeeze on
products that Intel put them in) have also led to rumors that
the company is in a cash crunch. Intel looks more promising
in today's climate, if the price is right, but AMD is worthy
of keeping an eye on. AMD's sales were down from $5.8B in
2005 to $5.6B in 2006. Intel is now on our Hot News list.
AMD is betting on the Barcelona chip for its recovery. There
was a special meeting for stockholders being held on July
16, 2007 in Austin, TX. The line item under discussion
at the meeting is an amendment to the Advanced Micro Devices,
Inc. 2000 Employee Stock Purchase Plan. Chairman and CEO Hector
de J. Ruiz received $12.8 million in compensation in 2006,
according to the Proxy Statement filed with the SEC on 5.31.07.
Dave Orton, the former president and chief executive officer
of ATI Technologies, resigned as executive vice president,
effective the end of July, on 7.10.07. ATI was acquired by
AMD in October 2006.
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|
Boston Properties
|
No
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BXP
|
$101.24
|
$103.90
|
$133.02
$91.25
|
+3%
|
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article. Boston Properties looks great. Think that
the office building REITs may begin to come under pressure
sometime in 2008/2009. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital
spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs
of the business economy, which are the customers of Boston
Properties.
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|
General Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$39.90
|
$41.40
|
$40.98
$32.20
|
+3.7%
|
|
See the article, "Green
San Jose Company," in vol. 4, iss. 8.
|
|
General Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$32.35
$37.03
(7.13)
|
$36.70
|
$38.66
$24.52
|
+13% &
flat
|
|
See the article "Faded
Blue Chips" in vol. 3, issue 8. Almost every
risk factor which GM listed in the annual report has occurred
- prices for parts are higher due to the metals commodity
crunch and gas prices have turned consumers to gas efficient
vehicles. GM still has an enormous overhead that impedes its
ability to be profitable in the global landscape. Investors
got excited late Sept. 2007 about a tentative deal with the
United Auto Workers Union, however, expenses are still too
high and the cars are still too unpopular. I've not highlighted
this company because the CEO is doing a spectacular job in
an awfully challenging landscape. Want to check out the focus
on new products, including the electric car, and will be doing
a full report soon. Not a short, but certainly not a company
that one would expect to be turned around overnight.
|
|
Goldcorp
|
No
|
GG
|
$22.73
|
$30.56
|
$41.66
$17.49
|
+34%
|
|
As you can see from the 52-week
high, GG's price is not unreasonable, however, we like keeping
an eye on good companies like this, just waiting for weakness
in the sector to cause a more attractive buy-in rate. Goldcorp
used to have more upside potential, in our view, than most
of the other larger gold companies, like Newmont. For a high
risk gold exploration company (i.e. they are LOOKING FOR GOLD
not mining it yet), check out U.S. Gold on the Hot News list.
Reason for being on the sidelines? Goldcorp missed earnings
expectations two quarters in a row, the expectations for the
current quarter were decreased and the P/E is now 54.70 (high).
The gold sector might be overvalued, and the unfortunate mining
accident in Utah reminds us of the human element of this sector.
|
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$82.49
|
$87.58
|
$103.59
$71.22
|
+6%
|
|
Get more information in vol.
4, iss. 9 in
the REITs article. We first featured Macerich in May of 2003,
when it was trading at $33/share. In September, the signs
were pointing toward a cooling off in retail shopping center
REITs, so we removed the company from our Hot News list (meaning
that we're capping the performance at 150% gains). There is
a good chance that the Santa Rally will enthrall investors,
and push the MAC price up, even though it is in the decidedly
unpopular REITs industry. We'll look to putting MAC on the
Cooling Off list in January 2008, or if interim news warrant
it earlier.
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|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.34
|
$29.46
|
$31.39
$21.45
|
+4%
|
|
World's largest software company.
$31 billion in cash. Launched Zune on Nov. 14, 2006 and Vista
earlier this year. New products have not received "buzz"
or outstanding sales. The latest ruling that Microsoft has
to pay $1.52 billion to Alcatel Lucent is a blow to any music
service that didn't license MP3 technology with Alcatel, including,
potentially, Apple. Great blue chip for your long term portfolio
because with the war chest and talent at MSFT, even this year's
assembly line of flops shouldn't bring the company down, although
it may bring out the firing rod. Will pressure come down on
Steve Ballmer, CEO? Trading near the 52-week high, so waiting
for a better buy-in opportunity might yield better returns.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share
Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note, that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
None
Recent
Deletions:
General
Motors
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 9.28.07
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Fannie Mae
|
No
|
FNM
|
$60.38
$68.75
(5.25.07)
|
$60.81
|
$69.29
$45.93
|
flat &
-12%
|
|
Spending $1 billion on accounting
fees related to the accounting scandal. Fannie Mae is behind
on filing 2005 and 2006 annual reports. If it fails to file
the reports by December 31, 2007, the company could be delisted.
(In the meantime, FNM is subject to quarterly review by the
NYSE.) And yet investors are still in to the tune of $58.44
billionÉ. Are you? Better check your mutual funds. The recent
subprime lending fallout doesn't bode well for FNM. According
to the AP, "Maintaining strong asset quality position
will be a challenge for Fannie Mae, given the recent weakening
of housing values from the very strong levels seen over the
last few years." Standard and Poor's has a negative outlook
on Fannie Mae.
|
|
KB Home
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$25.06
|
$56.08
$27.75
|
-58%
|
|
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under
pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating
options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout
sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices,
rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and
rising inventory. On June 28, 2007, KBH reported a loss from
continuing operations of $174.2 million or $2.26 per diluted
share in the second quarter of 2007, largely due to a pretax,
non-cash charge of $308.2 million related to inventory and
joint venture impairments and the abandonment of land option
contracts. In the second quarter of 2006, the Company generated
income from continuing operations of $184.4 million or $2.20
per diluted share. Revenues totaled $1.41 billion in the second
quarter of 2007, down from $2.20 billion in the year-earlier
quarter, due to a decline in housing revenues that was partly
offset by an increase in land sale revenues.
|
|
Novastar Financial
|
No
|
NFI
|
$28.04 &
$36.53 (6.15.07)
|
$8.87
|
$526.08
$4.17
|
-68% &
-76%
|
|
See the article (Sub)
Prime Time in the May 2007 ezine, vol. 4, iss. 5.
On July 27, 2007, Novastar announced a reverse stock split.
As a result of the reverse stock split, every four shares
of common stock were changed into one share of common stock.
|
|
Toll Brothers
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$19.99
|
$35.64
$18.85
|
-47%
|
|
Robert Toll, CEO, and brother Bruce
Toll have been on an insider selling spree, totaling hundreds
of millions, since May 2005 (source: MoneyCentral.Msn.com).
Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and
Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from volume 2, issue 5 in 2005, when we first reported on
REITs as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities
action complaint, from June 2007, alleging that Toll Brothers
"and one or more members of its senior management, violated
federal securities laws by issuing various materially false
and misleading statements that had the effect of artificially
inflating the market price of the Company's securities and
causing Class members to overpay for the securities."
On August 22, 2007, TOL announced 2Q earnings. You can access
the call on their website at: www.tollbrothers.com.
|
The following
companies were taken off of the Cooling Off list effective 10.16.06:
Verisign (+15%). IMClone (-11%). Yahoo (-28%). LifeCell was removed
on 7.2.07 with -4.5% overall performance. (The cooling off list
anticipates that a company will lose share price value.) Google
was added on 7.16.07 and then removed on 8.1.07 with losses of -6.7%.
General Motors was removed on 10.01.07 with mixed performance.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We are a
publishing, media and information center. This article is intended
to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors
a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly
traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be
buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant
its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as
of the date of this publication and are subject to change without
notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities,
financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
Calendar:
Check
Out the Largest Women's Conference in the U.S., a Bewitching FOMC
meeting and the Biennial Solar Decathlon in D.C.
The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas and online chats
with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! Visit our calendar section
often.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Peace
in Burma: Please help now!
Friday, October 5th, 2007
After
decades of military dictatorship, the people of Burma (now called
Myanmar) are rising - and they need our help. Link to Avaaz.org
to sign a petition now to let them know the world is watching and
will not stand idly by while peaceful monks are slaughtered.
Oxygen
Network's Mentor Walk, Los Angeles, CA
Friday,
October 5th, 2007
Oxygen's
Mentors Walk: Bringing Along the Next Generation is an event that
brings high-profile women business leaders from a variety of professions
to walk--and talk--with other women who share their passion and
dream of breaking into that field.
Twelfth
Night: Stratford Upon Avon, England
Saturday,
October 6th, 2007
John Lithgow
becomes Malvolio in a performance to make Shakespeare proud. Playing
NOW through October 6th ONLY. This is a play and a performance of
a lifetime. (Take me with you, Please!)
Solar
Decathlon, Washington, D.C.
Friday,
October 12 - 20, 2007
Tour 20
solar homes in a special solar village. Homes are part of a competition
between universities to design, build, and operate the most attractive
and energy-efficient solar-powered home.
 |
| Photo
Credit: Stefano Paltera/Solar Decathlon The Virginia Tech team
won first place in the Architecture and Dwelling Contest of
the Department of Energy's 2005 Solar Decathlon |
Pearl
of Havana Benefit Gala, Santa Barbara, CA
Saturday, October 20th, 2007
Celebrities, philanthropists and bon vivants gather in Santa Barbara,
CA for an elegant evening of mambo, music and showgirls to benefit
the Andre Sobel River of Life Foundation.
California
Governor and First Lady's Conference for Women
Tuesday,
October 23rd, 2007
First
Lady Maria Shriver hosts a day of breakout sessions and keynote
speakers like no other conference in the U.S.! From Queen Rania
Al Abdullah, to Laila Ali and Tony Blair, prepare to be inspired
and wow'd.
Hip
Resurfacing Meeting, Miami, FL
Wednesday,
October 24th, 2007
Smith
& Nephew's 10th Anniversary Birmingham Hip Resurfacing System
Meeting in Miami FL at the Loews Miami Beach Hotel will feature
a lecture from Dr. Vijay Bose, the most experienced BHR surgeon
in the world!
Online
Chat with Mortgage Loan Specialist Kassie Welch
Wednesday, October 24th, 2007
8:45AM through 9:30AM PT.
Having trouble with your new ARM payments? Wonder if you should
hold out hope that real estate will rise rapidly in the coming months?
Get options from a veteran loan consultant.
Global
Full Moon Meditation
Friday,
October 26th, 2007
between
7:00PM and 8:00PM PT
On each
full moon, people worldwide meditate at the same time, to promote
greater health within and greater peace throughout the world. Meditate
for 5 minutes or quiet your mind and focus on peace for the full
hour.
Lulu
Bandha's Ojai Yoga Crib in Ojai, CA
Friday,
October 26 thru Sunday, October 28.
Join Lulu Bandha's for the fifth Ojai Yoga Crib and spend a magical
weekend in the glorious Ojai Valley. The Crib is a yoga pilgrimage,
built upon Ojai's rich spiritual history. Cost: $400.
FOMC
Meeting Tuesday
Tuesday, October
30th and Wednesday, October 31st 2007
After a BIG, Fat rate cut in September, the Federal Reserve Board
governors meet again to determine whether inflation is more of a
factor than the housing pullback and subprime defaults. Will the
Feds keep the rate where it is, raise it or lower it? Experts say
that the pressure is to keep our Treasury bills attractive to foreign
investors (at higher interest rates), so another cut is not expected.
|
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|
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