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ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.5 Issue 9 September 1st, 2008
Send comments and suggestions or get more information
at info@NataliePace.com
Quote of the Month:
"It won’t happen immediately, but the technology finally
exists to power our vehicles with a renewable fuel that can be
made from multiple domestic sources including wind and sunshine
while also allowing us to finally give the Middle East the lack
of attention it deserves.”
Paul Woods,
President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer
of Odyssey Advisors.
|
|
|
High
Gas Prices Got You Floored?
by Paul
Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey
Advisors, LLC
The
Light at the End of the Tunnel: Hybrids Take the Next Step.
 |
| Tesla
Roadster. 100% electric. 0 to 60 in 3.9 seconds. 256 mpg
equivalent. Less than 2 cents per mile. |
With gasoline
now over $4 per gallon in many states and oil prices continuing
to rise, the question on the minds of most consumers is how long
they will have to spend an increasing share of their income on energy
in general and gasoline in particular. Our reliance on a 19th
century technology (the internal combustion engine) and a single
fuel for our transportation needs has brought us to a point where
there don’t appear to be any good choices. However, looks can be
deceiving. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Although we’re
still a few years away, a solution now exists that can eliminate
our dependence on foreign oil while bringing driving costs down
significantly.
Converting
Electricity to Fuel
The
problem with clean energy sources like wind and solar has always
been that they can only be used to produce electricity. Until recently,
covering the U.S. with wind turbines and solar panels would do little
to impact the demand for oil. Oil and the fuels produced from it
used to be the only practical way of powering vehicles. However,
aging petroleum reserves around the world and the lack of major
new discoveries have made it increasingly difficult for oil production
to keep up with demand. Combine this with the additional problems
of unstable sources of supply and concerns over climate change,
and it’s becoming increasingly apparent the only realistic solution
to these problems is to find another vehicle fuel.
Of the fuels
under consideration, electricity appears to be the best alternative.
The infrastructure for electricity is already in place and all we
need is available from a wide variety of domestic sources. It is
also the only fuel that consumers can produce themselves. Other
fuels under consideration including hydrogen and ethanol have numerous
problems including the lack of infrastructure and a price that will
always be too high. When used to power a vehicle, driving costs
of a few cents per mile will eventually make it impossible for other
alternatives, including gasoline, to compete.
Hybrids
– the First Step
One
of the most important things hybrids have done is take the first
step toward using electricity as a power source. Once a driver takes
their foot off the gas, a hybrid is powered by electricity. In addition,
regenerative braking is used to capture the energy used in braking
to recharge the battery. By combining two power sources, hybrids
offer better performance and more horsepower while also increasing
fuel savings significantly. In addition to better gas mileage, hybrids
have more horsepower and are more fun to drive than the original.
Marketing these should be a slam-dunk.
So
Why Aren’t Hybrids More Popular?
Toyota
currently has the state of the-art hybrid technology and this has
been licensed to several other automakers. However, their marketing
department appears to have a major brain cramp when it comes to
selling these. By mostly selling hybrid versions of existing vehicles
with too big a differential in price, consumers can see immediately
that it will take longer than most plan to own the hybrid to recover
the difference in price from fuel savings. By creating this comparison,
Toyota and the other hybrid manufacturers produced a huge reason
not to buy a hybrid.
As mentioned
previously, hybrids have more horsepower than the original because
they combine an electric motor with a combustion engine. However,
the environmental movement appears determined to make Americans
drive ugly little underpowered cars and they seem to go into a hissy
fit when auto companies try to appeal to the mass market by producing
faster cars that are more fun to drive. Because of this, the one
thing that might have made consumers more willing to pay the price
differential wasn’t mentioned. The result is a technology that should
be taking the auto industry by storm accounts for only 3-4% of the
market. To reinforce this point, it’s worth noting the Prius is
the only one without a non-hybrid version, and this has become their
most popular hybrid.
However, rising
gas prices appear to be overcoming poor marketing, and hybrid sales
are picking up. Fortunately, more auto companies are ramping up
to produce hybrids and the premium may decline to $2,000 in a few
years. The companies likely to be the most successful will probably
be the ones that create distinct hybrids instead of trying to revamp
existing models.
Better
Batteries to the Rescue
To
date, the battery material used in hybrids has been nickel. While
this is a slight improvement over the old lead batteries, these
still have poor energy density, which adds too much weight to a
vehicle. For perspective, 100 pounds of lead turned into a battery
will produce enough power to drive a vehicle 10 miles while the
same weight in nickel will increase the range to 15 miles. However,
100 pounds of lithium produces a range of 40 miles.
Because of
this, lithium has become the material of choice for smaller applications
including computers and cell phones. However, beginning in 2008,
the world’s major battery makers are ramping up to mass produce
large format lithium batteries for vehicles. By replacing nickel
batteries with lithium batteries the same size, the combination
of more energy density and less weight make it possible to dramatically
increase the range of a vehicle powered by electricity and significantly
reduce the demand for gasoline.
After
Market Conversions
Even
though the technology exists right now to produce a plug-in hybrid,
2010 appears to be the earliest that major automakers will bring
one of these to the market. The good news is that consumers don’t
have to wait. Companies are currently lining up to do after market
conversions. Most are starting with the Prius because there are
more of those on the road, but conversions are expected to be available
for other hybrids within the next year. Current conversions are
relatively expensive, priced at around $10k or more. However, with
large format lithium batteries going into mass production, the price
is expected to drop by 75% or more in the next few years.
A
Modest Proposal
With
private companies now doing what Toyota claims isn’t possible yet,
the world’s largest automaker is probably a tad embarrassed. Their
reaction has been to raise safety issues about lithium batteries
that have been long since resolved and threaten to void the warranty
on any conversions. However, this shouldn’t necessarily cause hybrid
owners to wait until the warranty has expired before converting.
The decision will be based on balancing the expected fuel savings
against having to pay for parts no longer covered by the warranty.
In this case, a vehicle that has historically needed the fewest
repairs would be the best candidate for a conversion.
For those considering
the purchase of a hybrid right now, here’s a modest proposal. Dealers
are currently charging a premium because of strong demand, so why
not buy a used one, take the savings, and spend it on an after market
conversion to a plug-in? Your range should be around 50 miles before
having to use a drop of gasoline. With the first plug-in coming
to market from Fisker Automotive in 2009 and priced at $80K, this
might be the best way to get one for a reasonable price without
having to wait.

Source: U.S.
Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1990
Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NTPS), Volpe National
Transportation System Center, Cambridge, MA 1991
If you think
driving 50 miles without using gasoline isn’t a big deal, think
again. It’s huge. The graph above shows that approximately 80% of
Americans drive 50 miles per day or less. Voila, this is the light
at the end of the tunnel. Imagine going from the current situation
to telling the loosely wrapped collection of despots that control
world petroleum reserves to put their oil where the sun doesn’t
shine.
It won’t happen
immediately, but the technology finally exists to power our vehicles
with a renewable fuel that can be made from multiple domestic sources
including wind and sunshine. Even better, it will reduce driving
costs dramatically and finally allow us to give the Middle East
the lack of attention it deserves.
ABOUT
PAUL WOODS
Paul
is the President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment
Officer of Odyssey Advisors. He has over 35 years of experience
in the investment management and research analysis of common stocks.
He manages the Odyssey Clean Energy Portfolio, which produced a
return of 141.9% before fees in 2007. Paul has done a great deal
of independent research on clean energy and has written multiple
articles on various segments of this industry. He can be contacted
at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
NataliePace.com
Note: Please note that the returns and statistics regarding the
Odyssey Clean Energy portfolio were provided by Odyssey Advisors.
Since Odyssey is not followed by an independent tracking firm, such
as Hulbert's Financial Digest, the results which the company provided
have not been verified with an independent source.
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|
Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings Reports.
by Natalie
Pace. Includes a Bank
Stock Report Card.
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|
Photo of
Natalie Pace by: Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008.
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079. |
Indymac, once
one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, was taken over by
the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on July 11, 2008. IndyMac
Bank, F.S.B. was the fifth FDIC-insured failure of the year, according
to the FDIC press release issued on July 11, 2008. The seizure came
after panicked customers withdrew more than $1.3 billion of deposits
over 11 business days.
Morgan Stanley
offered $2/share for Bear Stearns in March 2008, before upping the
offer to $10/share in April after several lawsuits by the Police
and Fire Retirement System of the City of Detroit and the Wayne
County Employees' Retirement System and other shareholders were
filed. Earlier in 2007, before two major Bear Stearns billion-dollar
hedge funds that were heavily invested in the subprime mortgage
loans collapsed, Bear Stearns share price had traded as high as
$133.
Countrywide
Financial, formerly the nation’s largest mortgage company, was bought
on the cheap by the Bank of America in July 2008 without any
cash – in a stock swap. Countrywide had a market value of $25
billion in May of 2007. On July 1, 2008, Countrywide shareholders
received 0.1822% of a share of Bank of America stock in exchange
for each share of Countrywide, for a total purchase value of less
than $3 billion.
It’s easy to
see that subprime loans are largely responsible for the colossal
mess that our nation’s financial corporations are experiencing.
So, how is it that the bank that was the largest subprime lender
in 2006, according to the Milken Institute, is the only financial
institution in the U.S. reporting record earnings?
It
just doesn’t add up
According
to the Milken Institute, Wells Fargo was the top subprime lender
in 2006, with $83.2 billion of subprime loans and 13% of the marketplace.
Top
Subprime Lenders in 2006
|
Rank
|
Leader
|
Billions
|
Market
Share
|
|
1
|
Wells
Fargo
|
$83.2
billion
|
13%
|
|
2
|
HSBC
|
$52.8
billion
|
8.3%
|
|
3
|
New
Century
|
$51.6
billion
|
8.1%
|
|
4
|
Countrywide
Financial
|
$40.6
|
6.3%
|
|
5
|
CitiMortgage
|
$38
|
5.9%
|
|
6
|
WMC
Mortgage
|
$33.2
|
5.2%
|
|
7
|
Fremont
Mortgage
|
$32.3
|
5%
|
|
8
|
Ameriquest
|
$29.5
|
4.6%
|
|
9
|
Option
One
|
$28.8
|
4.5%
|
|
10
|
First
Franklin
|
$27.7
|
4.3%
|
Source: ©
MilkenInstitute.org. Inside B&C lending and Credit Suisse source
data
As you can see
below, Wells Fargo is highly concentrated in three out of four of
the areas most severely hit by the housing downturn, including Arizona,
California and Nevada. According to Realtytrac.com, in a press release
issued on August 14, 2008, Nevada topped the United States in foreclosures
per households, with one for every 106 households and over 10,000
properties in foreclosure. California, Florida and Arizona posted
the second, third and fourth most foreclosures, respectively. (California
had the MOST foreclosures in July, with 72,285 foreclosure filings.)
With one in every 85 households receiving a foreclosure filing,
the Las Vegas metro area’s foreclosure rate ranked No. 5 in the
nation, behind Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla, Merced, Stockton and
Modesto, California, respectively.

The
Source of the Housing Problem:
Of
the 80 million homeowners in the U.S., nine million people, or 11%
of the homeowners, have a mortgage that is higher than the value
of their home. Five million, or 6.25% of the U.S. homeowners, are
behind on their payments and two million (2.5%) are in the foreclosure
process. 25 million homeowners in the U.S. own their homes free
and clear – without mortgages (31% of homeowners), and 50 million
(63%) are paying on time (Source: U.S. Treasury Department). It’s
important to realize that we are not entering the Great Depression,
while at the same time acknowledging that the housing crunch is
not yet over.
Now, analysts
have said that Wells did a great job of selling their riskiest loans
off quickly, however, Wells Fargo admits that they still hold $11.9
billion in loans in their own "liquidating portfolio"
of a total $84.2 billion Home Equity loans outstanding as of December
31, 2007. Not surprisingly, the liquidating loans are, according
to the Wells Fargo annual report, "largely concentrated in
geographic markets that have experienced the most abrupt and steepest
declines in housing prices."
The foreclosure
rate in this "worst of" portfolio is 4.8%, almost double
the national average of 2.5%. In addition to the $11.9 billion loans
in the Wells Fargo "liquidating portfolio," 20% of their
current loans, or at least $16.8 billion and possibly more, are
"interest only" loans. Many of those loans are based in
the bubble states of Arizona, Florida, Nevada and California, where
homeowners are underwater on their mortgage and unable to refinance.
While Wells Fargo claims that these homeowners are near prime or
prime customers, the alarmingly high foreclosure rates indicate
that many were using their equity as an ATM machine.
So, while Wells
Fargo’s claimed, on their July 17, 2008 2nd quarter 2008 earnings
report, that they have "record revenue" (while others
are imploding), the statements issued in their press releases are
indeed misleading.
Rather than
having "negligible exposure to many of the problem areas that
resulted in significant costs and write-downs at other large financial
institutions," which is what Wells Fargo claimed in their February
annual report, the bank has a lot of exposure to risky loans that
have yet to hit headline news. These risky loans include the $11.9
billion "liquidating portfolio" and the $16.8 billion
dollar "interest only" portfolio, but that’s not the only
problem area of the earnings report.
While Wells
Fargo does have a "diversified" franchise, the area with
the greatest growth this year, at 22%, was double-digit increases
in debit and credit card fees. Yet many of these fees are overdraft
fees that are levied on the bank’s most distressed homeowners and
banking clients – as many Wells Fargo clients have reported. Wells
Fargo’s "record earnings" could essentially be pushing
their most vulnerable clients over the edge. (Even cigarette companies
know how to kill their customers slowly.)
In that scenario,
explosive earnings growth this quarter is simply a delayed write-off
in an upcoming quarter. While you might think that there are a lot
of "if’s" in that scenario, Wells experienced a 19% increase
in net charge-offs in their unsecured credit cards and lines of
credit in 2007 (over 2006), to $1.02 billion from $857 million,
due in part to "increased economic stress in households"
(in Wells Fargo’s own words). It is a risky strategy to switch from
a revenue emphasis of being the top mortgage banker in 2006 to being
the top credit and debit fee banker in 2008. As we can see in Wells
Fargo’s own accounting, that revenue stream is extremely vulnerable
to inflation and hard times.
Total Non Performing
Assets at Wells Fargo were $3.87 billion as of December 31, 2007,
up 60% from last year’s $2.42 billion. Additionally, due to illiquid
market conditions, Wells Fargo is holding more foreclosed properties
this year. Foreclosed assets were $1.18 billion at December 31,
2007, up 58% over last year’s $745 million. With foreclosures in
California continuing to hit record highs, we can expect more pressure
on the bank.
Wells Fargo
Financial reported a net loss of $38 million in the second quarter
2008 compared with net income of $156 million the year prior. The
bank has exposure to at least $1.6 billion investment in eight Structured
Investment Vehicles (SIVs were subprime funds) held in their money
market mutual funds. "On February 2008, [in order] to maintain
an investment rating of AAA for certain non-government money market
mutual funds, [Wells Fargo] elected to enter into a capital support
agreement for up to $130 million related to one SIV held by those
funds," according to the second quarter 2008 earnings report.
While the company maintains that they are not required to bail out
these money market funds, they did state that they may "elect"
to help out more in the coming months. (If you have a Wells Fargo
brokerage account with holdings in their money markets, you may
want to reconsider your strategy.)
Almost a billion
-- $960 million in Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs -- was
moved off of the Wells Fargo books into "special-purpose entities"
that are currently holding $5.8 billion in total assets, according
to the annual report, which was released on February 29, 2008. "These
special-purpose entities were predominantly formed to invest in
affordable housing and sustainable energy projects and to securitize
corporate debt," according to the Wells Fargo earnings report.
While this is legal, this is the sort of financial maneuvering that
precipitated the downfall at some of our nation’s most infamous
corporate bankruptcies in 2002 and 2003.
83 million shares
were repurchased by Wells Fargo, at a rate of $31.49 to $33.83,
in October, November and December 2007. (Yes, this helps to stabilize
the share price; the share price in 2008 rarely lifted to above
$30.) During the first half of 2008, Wells Fargo repurchased another
17 million shares -- all from employee benefit plans. The company
also increased the dividend to $.34 from $.31.
Share repurchases
and dividend increases are widely considered to be votes of confidence
by the Board of Directors, however, savvy board directors use these
Trojan Horse tactics in tough times as a way to lure in shareholder
dollars to increase their market value to make it easier to secure
debt on better terms, and indeed Wells Fargo has been shoring up
capital aggressively this year. Again, these are all smart, savvy
financial tactics that can buy time and conceivably enough time
to get through the worst of the market crunch.
Wells Fargo’s
has been dressing up its financial sheets and buying time at the
top of the financial industry on Wall Street by 1) working with
distressed and seriously delinquent home owners to keep them from
foreclosing, 2) moving its riskiest loans off its books, 3) shoring
up its own share price with stock buybacks, 4) accumulating capital,
5) pouring money into its own leaky, SIV-backed money market mutual
funds, and 6) maintaining a high credit rating (through the afore-mentioned
accounting tricks and payoffs) in order to look like the beauty
queen in the current financial industry pig sty, in the hopes that
they can keep dancing a few steps in front of the fire sale that
has been consuming their competitors.
Even as another
bank fails -- Integrity Bank of Alpharetta, GA was closed on August
29, 2008 -- Wells Fargo may succeed in skating over the troubled
waters with slippery earnings reports. The company may stave off
investor panic long enough for the financial markets to recover
and for them to develop a more sound revenue strategy going forward.
But these tactics
carry a much higher risk than most investors are aware of. And the
rah-rah speeches by Wells Fargo executives (which were much more
tempered this month than they were in February and May) have not
been forthcoming about the seriousness or the depth of these concerns
(even though the fine print details can be dug up in their complicated
earnings reports).
The FDIC has
established four risk categories, with 2007 assessment rates ranging
from a minimum of 5 cents per $100 of domestic deposits for well
managed, well capitalized banks with the highest credit ratings,
to 43 cents for institutions posing the most risk to the Depositor’s
Insurance Fund. Even just a few ticks down into a lower risk category
could double (or more) the assessment rates for the only bank that
Wall Street is still enamored with – Wells Fargo.
That is why
Wells Fargo has been on (and off) my Cooling Off list off since
December of 2007 (and has been one of the top performers on that
list). At a share price of $30.27 on August 29, 2008, Wells Fargo
is one of the companies highlighted on the Cooling Off list this
month, as poised (again) for a potential fall in share price value.
FULL DISCLOSURE:
I own put options on Wells Fargo (and I’m a customer as well).
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect
a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance
of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk
tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of
your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should
never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|

Best
of Las Vegas: the Most Interesting City in the World.
by NataliePace.com
Staff.
 |
| Dome
of the Sea by Cherry
Capri. Acrylic with prismacolor and glitter on Panel $1500 |
This BEST OF
list is actually not just the best of Las Vegas. In many ways, it
is the best of the world list. Vegas now sports more Michelin rankings
(the most prestigious awards for chefs and restaurants) than Los
Angeles. The spas have some of the finest aestheticians and massage
therapists. At Wynn, you can lunch by a waterfall, swim in the longest
lap pool ever built, view world class art, play a round of golf
and never once hear the annoying din of slot machines. So, if you
like a little risqué behavior with your R&R, or a little
poker with your fine dining, or a little kitsch with your quiche,
Vegas pretty much has everything for everyone these days. (Even
my conservative, religious friends have found things to do in Sin
City that won’t get them kicked out of heaven!)
ROOMS:
Best Hotel for the Business Traveler: Trump Tower is
the best choice for the business traveler who wants a great night’s
sleep, the finest, personalized attention just off the Strip and
to be in a hotel where you don’t have to walk two miles to find
your elevator. No slots, poker tables or showgirls to distract you
from the job (but close enough to get to any of these in a few minutes).
Part of the reason Trump ranks at the top of our list for the business
traveler is that the hotel boasts:
Fluffiest
Bed: Trump Tower. There are beds that seem to wrap themselves
around you like a soul-mate lover. Ivanka must have personally designed
this.
Best Staff
and Service: Trump Tower. Catch a ride all over town from the
Bell Staff, or get your latte made to perfection at the café,
or use the attaché service for anything you might desire
24/7. Well, almost anything… Vegas does have a few rules…
Best Hotel:
Wynn Hotel
has some of the finest rooms I’ve ever seen. The floor to ceiling
windows offer a spectacular view of the Strip. The room is more
spacious than any room on the Strip, and every little detail seems
to have been attended to as well. The mirrors are all skinny mirrors
(awesome!). There is a seat in the shower, which is great for leg
shaving and other recreational activities. The lighting beauties
any woman over 20. There is a flat screen TV. And if ever you feel
a need to step outside of the room, you have great dining choices,
a spa and the longest lap pool in the world.
Things to
do at Wynn Hotel: Dine outside along the Lake of Dreams at Daniel
Boulud’s Brasserie.
Things to
avoid: The Ferrari dealership. Why should you pay to look at
cars? Please don’t encourage this kind of craziness. Come to Beverly
Hills and we’ll let you gape at stars and fancy cars for free.
Best
Room with a View: Bellagio. I’ve seen the dancing water fountain
at Bellagio from so many different angles – from Mon Ami Gabi across
the street (a good restaurant you may wish to try), from the street
itself and now, from a tower suite in the Salon section of the hotel.
The top floors at all of these world-class hotels – Wynn, THEhotel,
Mandalay Bay, Bellagio – have spectacular views of the Strip, but
Bellagio’s is just that much more special because of the fountains.
You can turn on the music in the room and there is something timeless,
intimate, aesthetically appealing and even important about experiencing
the beauty and artistry of the dancing water fountain. It’s soooo
appealing that you might have to split your time between Wynn and
Bellagio (unless you’re a business traveler jumping in and out of
town, in which case, Trump Tower is probably a better choice).
Best View
of the Strip and Best Hotel for College Students: The
Palms Hotel is located off the Strip, and, because of that, has
the best view of the Strip’s hotels. Pick any one of the bars, from
the Playboy Club to the Ghost Bar or Moon to experience this fantastic
view, but bear in mind that this is really a young singles paradise.
If you’re under 29 and single, this is hands down the best place
to stay and play! Great clubs, awesome view, loud music, too much
alcohol. Vegas at its wicked best.
SPAS:
Best Massage: Cupping massage at the Canyon Ranch and
Watsu massage at Bellagio.
Best Facial:
The Canyon
Ranch Spa at Palazzo and the Venetian is truly an oasis of pampering
and pleasure. The massage therapists and aestheticians were at the
top of their professions. I came out of my facial looking younger
and came out of my massage feeling vitalized and toxin-free.
Imagine a convention
where the girls are pampered, the men are challenged and entertained,
and everyone meets up at night for a world-class dinner. That’s
the kind of conference, or bachelor/bachelorette party that you
can create in Vegas these days, baby!
Watsu Massage
at Bellagio: This is the strangest, new craze in massage, where
you get in a saline tub and someone swirls you around for an hour,
but man, oh, man, does it work! It’s a massage that focuses on deep
relaxation, circulation and, believe it or not, intestinal health.
You’ll have more fluids and solids moving through you after this
massage than if you’d had a gallon of green tea and an overdose
of ExLax. And yet, while the massage is occurring, you’ll be more
likely to fall asleep than to feel any discomfort. By gently floating
and stretching in a warm pool, you will become deeply relaxed, strengthening
your mind/body connection.
Best BathHouse:
THEbathhouse at THEhotel. The Black Moore Mud Bath is designed to
purify your body of free radical build up. Ok. Whatever that means.
Forget about the name or the description of the health benefits.
After this bath, you’ll feel like a goddess walking on the clouds.
I’ve felt like that less than a handful of times in my life and
never without a partner. Until this crazy Jacuzzi mud bath. This
is something everyone should get to experience at least once in
his/her life. Just do it. Don’t expect to be in the mood to do anything
after, except maybe a massage, or "dot dot dot"…
DINING:
Best Dessert with a View: MIX at THEhotel. There is really
only one other reason to go the THEhotel, and that is to head straight
up to the top of the hotel for its dessert with a view at MIX. You’ll
feel like you’re stepping into a set of Laugh In, with Mix’s dramatic
and zany décor. The view, 400 feet atop the Vegas skyline,
is eye-popping (and would be the best view in Vegas if Palms weren’t
around).
The restaurant
brags that their dishes are created by the famed chef, Alain Ducasse,
however, when I dined there, it was clear that Monsieur Ducasse
hasn’t overseen the preparation for awhile (or the B-team was on
duty during the summer). My date and I quite liked the gnocchi,
but were underimpressed with the all of the other offerings on the
chef’s tasting menu – until dessert arrived.
Pre-dessert
started with the most sensual tasting pina colada you’ll ever experience,
topped with warm coconut milk foam. Whether we were swooning over
freshly baked Madelines dipped in house-made Nutella or wondering
how pastry chef Gregory Gourreau can transform a few ladyfingers
into such a complex taste orgasm, there wasn’t a dessert that Mix
delivered (and we sampled five) that we didn’t delight in. Monsieur
Gourreau est Le Roi de patisserie!
Best Breakfast
with a View: Jean-Philippe
at Bellagio. People come to see the World’s Largest Chocolate Fountain,
but you’re crazy if you don’t stay to sample one of chef Jean-Philippe
Maury’s breakfast (or dessert) crepes or some of the dozens of other
breakfast pastries, sandwiches, chocolates, cakes or tarts. From
blueberry brioche to ham and cheese crepes to quiche Lorraine and
great espresso drinks, there wasn’t a morning when the first thought
of the day wasn’t – Jean-Philippe! And while you wait in line to
order, you have the added pleasure of circling around the cakes,
tarts, chocolates and other delicacies that you’ll want to treat
yourself to in the afternoon.
Best Restaurant:
Joel
Robuchon at MGM Grand Hotel Las Vegas. Michelin has
given its highest rating, three stars, to only 57 restaurants worldwide.
There are none in Los Angeles. There is only one in Las Vegas --
Joel Robuchon. According to Michelin, "One always eats extremely
well here, often superbly. Distinctive dishes are precisely executed,
using superlative ingredients." Monsieur Robuchon has been
named the "Chef of the Century" and his French cuisine
is the rave of the world now. The 6-course tasting menu averages
$250/person and the 16-course menu is $385/person.
Consistently
Great Dining at a more reasonable price: Emeril’s
at MGM Grand Hotel Las Vegas. Emeril’s Cajun food is simply
a delight. There is nothing on the menu that isn’t fresh, flavorful,
prepared to perfection and worth sampling. I’ve been going to this
restaurant for over a decade now and have never been disappointed!
With the funky New Orleans architecture, and Emeril’s Creole/Cajun
creations, you'll feel closer to Bourbon Street than the Vegas Strip.
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Best
Late Night/Late Morning Hang out: The
Peppermill is the hippest uncool hangout you’ll ever
experience. It’s like night at the Peppermill fireside lounge
24/7, and day (all night long) at the 24-hour restaurant.
So, whether you need to continue the night (in the early morning
hours) or start the day late (in the mid-afternoon), the Peppermill
is there for every need you might desire at the wrong hour.
Whether it is an early morning Bloody Mary or a late night
pancake, it will taste great and the ambience will be the
right lighting (since you have both to choose from).
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POKER:
Best
hotel for experienced poker players: Bellagio features 40 tables,
two high-limit areas and "Bobby’s Room," an exclusive
two-table private, but peek-a-boo area, where VIP, well-known poker
players plunk down a $20,000 minimum buy-in to match their wits.
Just having players seated in the room lifts the adrenalin in the
entire Poker Room with a palpable energy that sparks high performance
and competition from everyone – even though the identity of the
stars are largely obscured by translucent glass walls. Bobby’s Room
is named after 1978 World Series of Poker Champion (and Mirage Chief
Design and Construction Officer) Bobby Baldwin.
Bellagio’s poker
room features all of the amenities of most poker rooms, including
24-hour table-side dining, complimentary beverage service, a cashier,
affable dealers, etc., with the added appeal of LeRoy Neiman-commissioned
paintings of high-stakes poker greats.
Still, the number
of locals and seasoned poker players may be too much to take on
if you’re just beginning, unless you have nerves of steel and don’t
mind losing a little dough. There are Daily Poker Tournaments (as
there are in many poker rooms in Vegas) where your gambling is limited
to your buy-in.
Best hotel
for beginning poker players: MGM Grand has a lot of low limit
tables and tournaments, with plenty of players itching to learn
the ropes of poker. Because there aren’t many tables with limits
above $5, it’s hard for an experienced player to find much of a
challenge, but this is a great poker room for someone to gain some
confidence and practice some poker skills without breaking the ATM
machine. MGM has daily tournaments as well, which are well-attended,
meaning you could walk away with hundreds or thousands of dollars
for the buy-in price, if you win the tournament. If you lose, again,
your losses are limited to the price you pay to compete.
THE
SIGHTS:
Best
tourist experience: Venetian. Float down the Grand Canal in
a gondola with your very own sexy, singing gondolier, or enjoy the
experience as a spectator, while dining at the Canaletto restaurant
at St. Mark’s Place. Canaletto offers Venetian dishes and Il Fornaio
fresh baked bread, and has private dining rooms upstairs that overlook
the Grand Canal.
Best Shows:
Cirque du Soleil, Mamma Mia! And the Liberace Museum.
You Must
Do This Once in Your Lifetime: The Liberace Museum, Carluccio’s
Tivoli Gardens for dinner with Wes Winters and an after-dinner drink.
You may
think of the Rat Pack when you think Vegas, but Liberace,
with his ostentatious costumes and outrageously feminine behavior,
truly embodied the spirit of Las Vegas just as much as Dino and
Frank did. And it is the only town that would dare to house his
museum. Better yet, if you plan your visit to the museum in the
late afternoon, you can dine at Carluccio’s
Tivoli Gardens and then catch Wes
Winters, a fantastic Liberace-esque performer/pianist,
that evening. Mr. Winters does many a tribute to Liberace, and no
one living tinkles the ivories with greater flair than Wes.
Mamma
Mia!,
the #1 show in Vegas according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal,
Is such an effervescent show, full of fun, intrigue, lots of sex
and hot Vegas show girls… The performers onstage at the Mandalay
Bay theatre are hotter, sexier, more talented, funnier and far better
singers than the performers in the movie (even though I’m a Pierce
Brosnan and Meryl Streep fan, they kinda sucked). The audience dances
like it’s 1979 and whether you are 21 or 41, you’ll likely fall
in love with this story of a sexual single mom and her monogamous
daughter.
Cirque
du Soleil:
There are soooo many great Cirque du Soleil shows to choose from
and all of them are just jaw-dropping spectacles. I’ve seen most
and if you haven’t just pick a different one each time you come
to Vegas, starting with the one that appeals to you most. Below
are a few, along with their themes…
La
Reve
at Wynn Las Vegas is not technically a Cirque du Soleil show. It
is a show created by Cirque du Soleil’s former creative director
Franco Dragone. Reviews written by regular folks call this show
an amazing experience, with spectacular effects. It’s expensive,
but some report getting great prices on some of the discount travel
sites or last minute on eBay auctions… $99, $125 and $179.
Ka
at MGM by Cirque du Soleil show features martial arts, acrobatics,
drama, incredible moving stages, heart-stopping music and an engaging
epic tale of two twins on a perilous journey. KÀ Tickets:
$69, $99, $125, and $150. Active military on duty receive 50% off
of the $99 and above ticket prices.
Zumanity,
at New York, New York, Las Vegas, is the sensual side of Cirque
du Soleil and an adults only show. You must be over 18 to attend.
It is described as pushing all of your buttons as to what is and
is not acceptable in romance, intimacy and sex, including Catholic
School Girls, obesity, s/he, nudity, Chippendale’s and that’s only
the first five minutes. All of the acrobatics, sensuality, music,
mind-blowing body contortions with more nudity, raw sexuality, boundary-blowing
lust you can (or can’t) take. To see a sampling of what lies in
store for you at the show (and whether it floats your boat), click
on the highlighted Zumanity.
Love,
Cirque du Soleil’s Beatles Tribute, is staged at The Mirage. Born
from a personal friendship and mutual admiration between the late
George Harrison and Cirque founder Guy Laliberté, LOVE brings
the magic of Cirque du Soleil together with the spirit and passion
behind the most beloved rock group of all time to create a vivid,
intimate and powerful entertainment experience.
Criss
Angel Believe
at Luxor. If you can believe all the starlets Criss Angel has been
linked to (and how quickly he can make them disappear out of his
life), imagine what he can do with the help of the imaginative team
of Cirque du Soleil. Preview performances begin on September 12
and run through October 9, 2008. During these performances, the
creative team is in the very final stages of production. The audience’s
reaction and participation is an important step in this process.
The artistic team of CRISS ANGEL Believe reserves the right to interrupt
the performance to make adjustments as necessary. The gala premiere
is on October 10, 2008.
Mystere and
O are two other Cirque du Soleil shows that have been running for
quite awhile and are crowd favorites as well.
So, if you haven’t
been to Las Vegas in awhile, this is a city that has transformed
into one of the most exciting, interesting cities in the world,
with more choices for indulgence and one-of-a-kind experiences than
ever before. Whether your passion is watsu massage or wasabi, whether
your poison is topless dancers or poker, whether you spend your
evenings tucked beneath the sheets ordering in food from the finest
chefs in the world or taking in the visual/audio/passion spectacles
of the greatest shows on Earth, Vegas now truly has something for
everyone, and at prices we haven’t seen for years.
Las Vegas, Nevada
is dealing up the best delights in the world and at these prices,
you are the truly the winner.
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Find
Another Way to Have What You Want.
by Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire and The
Wealthy Spirit.
"It
is surprising how many improvements can come out of things that
go wrong."—Anonymous
 |
| Chellie
Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit. |
In the end,
financial stress reduction is simply this:
1. Earn more
2. Spend less
3. Find another
way to have what you want
When we’re
doing all we can to satisfy the first two requirements and yet when
we see things we want that cost money, what can we do to stay within
our budgets and still get what we want?
This is where
you earn your graduate degree from M.S.U. (Make Stuff Up).
In the habit
of spending a lot of money on clothes? Learn to sew, or trade services
with a friend who sews. Buy too many books? Go to the library or
create a circle of like-minded friends with whom you can trade books.
Is enjoying nature your priority? Instead of feeling bad that you
can’t afford to buy a house with acres of land, live somewhere that
is close to a park or wildlife refuge and take a walk there every
day. Or rent the guesthouse from someone whose main house is on
lots of land.
In my financial
darkest days, I lost my home to foreclosure. I had bought when the
real estate market (and my business) was high. (Doesn’t that sound
familiar? Just like many people are now suffering from the current
mortgage meltdown. You might want to forward this to anyone you
know who is in that pickle today.) My loans totaled $160,000 and
units in my complex were selling for $90,000. Oops. And my interest
rate then was 16%!!). When the recession hit and the market and
my business plummeted (my biggest client that was 75% of my business
left with two weeks notice—right after I had bought my partners
out), I found I couldn’t sell it and I couldn’t meet the monthly
payments of $1,650. Eventually, I had to give it back to the bank.
It was a humiliating personal disaster. (But there are upsides to
downsides too. I lived in the condo without having to make a mortgage
payment for many months during the foreclosure process. I saved
everything I could to try and survive the storm,)
One Friday night,
I was playing cards with some girlfriends. They knew I was going
through hard times, and one of the girls turned to me and said,
"So where are you going to live now?" I said, "I
don’t know." She said, "Why don’t you move in here with
Shelley?" And Shelley looked up from her cards and said, "Sure.
You can move in with me."
So I did. I
moved into a gorgeous two-story, three-bedroom, three-bath, 3,000
square foot home in a beautiful hillside setting in a gorgeous neighborhood.
The furniture was exquisite, the art to my taste and the autumn
color scheme looked made for me. It was the most beautiful—and most
expensive—home I had ever lived in. Shelley and I got along great
and it was fun having a roommate after years of living alone.
The rent? $200
per month. The value of the house does not appear on my balance
sheet. But when I’m walking around in it, I can’t tell I don’t own
it.
This particular
scenario might not fit your lifestyle. Find one that does. Manage
an apartment building in exchange for free rent. Be a professional
house sitter. Don’t follow the "American Dream" of home
ownership if it’s not your dream. If it is, and you do own a home,
in an economic downturn you could find a roommate or two to share
expenses. What else could you do? Think outside the box. Make something
up.
A recent article
in Parade magazine by Mike Hammer mentions that the popular
myth is that renters are "just throwing their money away. But
the reality is that when you buy a home, you’re paying for closing
fees, mortgage interest, property taxes, private homeowners’ insurance
and maintenance—costs that return nothing on your investment. You’d
be better off banking that money or putting it into the stock market.
In fact, a recent study by Fidelity Investments indicates that stocks
provided investors with nearly 4.5% higher average returns in the
last 45 years than real estate." (The catch here is that you
have to take your extra money and really invest it in the stock
market—which is sometimes difficult for human beings to do when
faced with the potential for immediate gratification of our desires
instead of delayed gratification.)
In addition
to that, "a study by the National Multi Housing Council points
out half of homeowners don’t get a break, because even with mortgage
interest and property taxes, their total deductions do not exceed
the standard federal tax deduction ($10,900 for couples and $5450
for singles)."
It’s important
to make decisions based on what your lifestyle is and what your
priorities are and not just blindly follow conventional wisdom.
You may be able to live in a much nicer place, with more amenities,
and in a better neighborhood if you rent than you would be able
to buy.
You don’t have
to be rich to live rich.
The thing I’d
most like to share with you is this: I was broke, lost my home,
almost lost my business, and was shocked and depressed at what had
happened to me. I was 46 years old. But I didn’t give up on my dreams
and continued to say affirmations and send out ships. Since then,
I have built up my Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops, licensed
others to teach them, make a six-figure income, published two books,
and am quoted in more than 35 books, including 2008 NYT bestsellers
Happy for No Reason by Marci Shimoff and Harmonic Wealth
by James Arthur Ray. As they say in poker, all you need is "a
chip and a chair", and you can make a comeback and win the
tournament. Or win the Game of Life.
As a professional
speaker and author of The Wealthy Spirit and Zero to Zillionaire,
Chellie has been teaching Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops
since 1990. The Wealthy Spirit was a book-of-the-week on the Doctor
Laura Schlessinger radio show and a GlobalNet book-of-the-month
selection. She has been quoted in Good Housekeeping, Lifetime, Woman's
World, and Essence, and more than 30 popular books.
Chellie has
also been responsible for helping countless people to increase the
profitability of their businesses. If you are stuck having too much
month at the end of your money, learn Chellie's time-proven strategies
to success in her Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops. If
you are interested in becoming a certified coach/owner in Chellie's
workshop franchises, be sure to contact her right away. Space is
limited. Go to Chellie.com
for more information.
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Water: The Secret Elixir
of Health and Beauty.
by Janelle
Deeds Nutrition Consultant & Educator
You have heard
it once; you’ve heard it many times…water is vital to the quality
of your health. But what is really going on when you take that drink
of water? Why does it really make a difference, especially if you
aren’t even thirsty? And what is all the fuss about?
Here
are a few benefits of drinking water include:
* Maintains beautiful
healthy looking skin - skin health is a reflection of our internal
health.
* Keeps your
organ and joints moist - this permits the passage of nutrients and
wastes between the blood vessels and the rest of the body.
* Helps to maintain
muscle tone and supports weight loss - water plays a key role in
the metabolic breakdown of proteins and carbohydrates.
* Supports the
regulation of your body temperature - when the body becomes too
warm you will break out in a sweat. If you cannot sweat and your
temperature rises, you can experience heat stroke or exhaustion.
* Transports
oxygen to the cells.
Your body is
entirely made up of cells. Protoplasm, the basic material of living
cells, is made of macronutrients that you are very familiar with;
proteins, fats and carbohydrates. They are integrated in cells and
with the various chemical elements combined with water to create
the more familiar macronutrients. The basic functioning of the cells,
including water balance, digestion, removing toxins, elasticity
of the cells, oxygenation, nutrition, sodium/potassium balance etc.
depend on Cell Salts. These cell salts are vital nutritional elements
of the cell and lacking any one or more of these minerals will prevent
the cells from up taking the proper nutrients supplied by digestion
and the blood. In the late 1800’s, Dr. Willhelm H. Schuessler observed
that the human body, when reduced to ashes contained only 12 minerals
in the form of salts.
In a normal
healthy body, minerals and micro elements pass through the cell
membrane to the nucleus by electro-osmosis. A cell exchanges elements
with the rest of the body by electrolysis. The body needs electrolytes
(salt minerals like sodium, potassium, chloride and bicarbonate)
for basic body functions. If your body loses water, it loses the
ability to use these minerals.
Dehydration
of the body is a serious matter. At 1% dehydration, most individuals
will find that they have reduced athletic performance; others may
experience a headache, tiredness, and irritability or just feel
thirsty. They often may not feel quite right but with no specific
concerns. When 2% dehydration is reached, athletes can experience
a 30% loss in performance, others may find rapid onset of fatigue,
increased heart rate and elevated body temperature. Metabolic processes
are now hindered which can include symptoms of indigestion and constipation.
When the body can no longer release waste properly it retains toxins,
which can create a dis-eased state.
Hydration and
detoxification start inside and continues to reflect on the outside.
By keeping your water intake up throughout the day you are providing
your body with the necessary support to function at an optimal level.
We had a young
woman come in to the HealthWalk office who just couldn’t boost her
energy level. She was not a water drinker at all, but preferred
soda and energy drinks. We had her do a little experiment for two
weeks - Drink only water placed on any of the HealthWalk’s Hydromag™
water treatment line of products. Her concern was that when she
increased her water intake she would have to run to the potty all
the time, but by using the Hydromag™, the water was restored
to a more natural balance thereby allowing the minerals and nutrients
to be more bio-available and absorb more efficiently. The hydromag
treated water also helped her body regain a healthier alkaline state,
which supported the release of toxins in her body. She was amazed
at how such a simple suggestion could make such a dramatic difference.
In two weeks her energy level went up, she felt more alert and her
moods improved!
Look to your
foods for water as well. Dry, packaged and processed foods contain
little to no water. However, organic, seasonal, fresh fruits and
vegetables are abundant in all of the necessary nutrients, water,
vitamins, minerals, fiber, antioxidants, and phytonutrients. They
taste good, are nourishing for your body as well as offer a refreshing
alternative.
A
few tips for drinking water:
1. Never drink
water that smells or tastes like chlorine. It is the natural minerals
that you want in your water, not chemicals.
2. Use bottled
water as a temporary solution. It can be expensive, is environmentally
unfriendly and the chemicals in the plastic can leach out to give
undesirable side effects. Check into a home purifying system or
water service.
3. Have your
water tested for leaching. Impurities from plumbing and hot water
tanks can show up in your cooking water or shower!
4. Use HealthWalk’s
hydromag™ water treatment products to facilitate your blood’s
ability to become more alkaline. The hydromag™ decreases the
surface tension of the water/liquid, aligns the water molecules
and restores it to its natural state. Water in its natural state
supports the increase in your blood’s available oxygen and thus
improving the function of your body and thereby reducing fatigue.
So raise your
water glass and cheers! To your health.
HealthWalk
offers customized, non-invasive and effective support to enable
your body’s own innate powers to enhance health, performance and
healing. HealthWalk is
dedicated to supporting and educating you to achieve and maintain
vibrant wellness. HealthWalk
is a unique integrative healthcare facility and sanctuary with a
global umbrella of leading edge technologies, services, supplements
and products backed by over 20 years of research.
For more
information about HealthWalk’s hydromag water treatment products:
http://www.healthwalk.com/ProductsStore/HydroMag/tabid/125/Default.aspx.com
HealthWalk,
the leading edge non-invasive healthcare center and products company
has specially priced Health and Wellness Services Packages and Discounts
on Products and Services for NataliePace.com subscribers. HealthWalk
is offering 10% discount for NataliePace.com subscribers on all
individual HealthWalk products and services. Please mention the
discount code, HWNP upon ordering.
In today’s high
stress world, you face a host of special health needs and challenges
from work and home demands. Health issues include physical and emotional
stress, sleep issues, memory and information retention, weight control,
gastro-intestinal distress, hormonal imbalances and emotional and
physical health.
Remote Galvanic
Skin Response (GSR) analysis - $325 (available to be conducted via
phone and internet)
G.S.R.
measures through the conductivity of the skin, the autonomic nervous
system responses to stress. A stress profile is determined by looking
at the body’s meridians, vertebrae, teeth, and organs. G.S.R. can
also look at food, environmental, chemical, viral, bacterial, and
fungal stressors. G.S.R. provides the means for clearly seeing what
is transpiring in your systems so that a thorough analysis of your
reactions to energy, foods, supplements, toxins and more can be
observed. Then with the G.S.R. we can confirm the compatibility
of all potential solutions prior to recommending them.
HealthWalk
In Clinic Package
In
one full, comprehensive and enlightening day at HealthWalk’s clinic
you will learn more about your health and bodily functions (hormonal
balance, blood composition, biological activity, diet analysis)
than you have ever known. The whole analysis and consultation process
is non-invasive, thorough and deeply informative. You will come
away with the solutions, supplements and support to guide you on
your path to enhancing, regaining and maintaining your vibrant health.
HealthWalk’s
special package includes Vital Hematology, Comprehensive Hormone
and Adrenal Analysis and Consultation, Digital Infrared Thermal
Imaging (breast and lymph screening), Galvanic Skin Response (G.
S. R.) and a consultation session with the Health Guide.
Special
discount for NataliePace.com subscribers - $995 regularly $1170
HealthWalk’s
Remote Program allows you to obtain a comprehensive analysis
and support for your health so you can achieve wellness from your
own location. HealthWalk has contracted with labs throughout the
country to work with you to obtain the blood and saliva samples
to do a thorough analysis and consult with you via phone and email
on your specific health issues and to offer you appropriate support.
This program gives you a comprehensive analysis and solutions on
what and how your body is functioning at the adrenal, biological,
hormonal, cognitive, mental and metabolic levels. The significant
majority of all illnesses and promotion of wellness can be related
to the proper functioning and understanding of the endocrine system,
the biochemical aspects of the body and the proper functioning and
understanding of nutrient uptake, allergies, inflammation, and potential
or current toxins in the body. This program will give you the information
and support you need to enhance, regain and maintain vibrant health.
The cost
of the Remote Program is $1395
Call
HealthWalk at 877-255-4703 or email info@healthwalk.com
www.healthwalk.com
HealthWalk,
5825Avenida Encinas suite 111, Carlsbad CA 92008
You
can lose everything in life and make it all back
With one
exception… Your Health

Please
note: This article has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration.
The information herein is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure
or prevent any disease.
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Even Virgin Investors
Can Discover the Joy of Stocks.
by Natalie
Pace. Top 10 Things You Already Know About Investing.
1.
If you can shop, you can pick a stock. Read the articles,
"Don't
Blind Date Your Money," in the NataliePace.com archived
ezine, vol. 3, issue 1, and "Recipe
for Successful Investing" in vol. 3, issue 10.
2. If you
can pick a fantastic life partner, you can pick an experienced
certified financial planner to co-design that dream life with you.
For tips, go to "How
to Pick a Broker" in the Investor Edu section at NataliePace.com.
3. If you can
tip 15%, you can tithe 10% -- to your "Buy My Own Island"
account. Get invested now!! For a sample HOW TO plan, read the articles,
"The
Secret of Wealth: Double Your Fun Budget," in the NataliePace.com
archived ezine, vol. 4, issue3, and "Thrive:
The Secret to Wealth Life Plan", in vol. 4, issue 4.
4. If you make
$14 an hour, you can be a millionaire in less than 31 years,
by tithing only 10% to your freedom plan. Read "From
Flipping Burgers to Owning Your Own Island!" (vol. 3, issue
5).
5. Even virgins
can learn the joy of stocks. Read, "The
Joy of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor," in the NataliePace.com
ezine, vol 3, issue 10. Written by Jodi Seidler.
6. If you call
it your "Buy
My Own Island Plan," you're more likely to open the
statements, than if you're still ignoring your "retirement plan."
Read the article of the same name in NataliePace.com archived ezine
vol. 3, issue 11.
7. If you can
harness your emotions, you'll make better investment choices. Get
tips on how to from my new book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, available now on Amazon.com.
8. You should
think twice before cashing out your 401 (k)! (If you do,
you could lose half of your savings!) NataliePace.com featured a
special Investor
Alert from the NASD in vol. 3, issue 7.
9. If you prepare
for emergencies, natural disasters, war and terrorism, chances
are you and your portfolio will survive. Find out 11 Preparedness
Tips Against War, Terrorism and "Acts of God," in the article "War
and Your Portfolio," from NataliePace.com archived ezine,
vol. 3, issue 8.
10. It pays
to hang on to your home, even if the value is currently less
than your mortgage. If you’re having trouble figuring out how to
keep your place, you’ll find ample resources and ideas in the article,
"Hope
Now for Distressed Homeowners," from NataliePace.com
archived ezine, vol. 5, issue 7
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Blue Chip Value Stocks
on Sale.
by
Kelley Wright, managing editor, Investment
Quality Trends stock newsletter.
First-September
2008
I
have been asked countless times why the Investment Outlook
is written in narrative style with a series of vignettes as opposed
to a recap of the indexes, specific indicators, technical analysis
observations, etc. With the advent of the Internet there is more
information, much of which is in real-time, than anyone could ever
possibly assimilate.
While
this glut of information is nirvana to some, we find that much of
it is a distraction and can lead Subscribers off on irrelevant tangents.
For this reason we focus on the information we feel is pertinent
to our approach and is cogent.
On
the cover page for example, we always begin with An Illuminating
Concept. In simple terms this is our way of keeping in touch
with the "big picture;" we invest in stocks, therefore
we must have a mechanism that identifies value. The dividend, which
determines dividend yield, will eventually determine price. Value
then, lies in yield as reflected by the dividend trend and individual
stocks will fluctuate in price between the repetitive extremes of
high dividend yield and low dividend yield.
For
a macro perspective we follow the dividend yield trends of both
the Dow Jones Industrial and Utilities Averages. While stocks follow
their individual paths, the prevailing trends of these broad averages
provide important insights as to which way the wind is blowing and
can assist investors in the timing of purchases and/or sales.
The
Select Blue Chips –Summary on page 2 tracks the number of stocks
in each category of value. As the changes from issue to issue can
be subtle, we have produced long-term graphs that can be viewed
in the Special Reports area of the website, which allow Subscribers
to "step back" and see the changes with a broader perspective.
The Select Blue Chips Summary is an important tool as it can confirm
the prevailing trends in the broad averages or gives a warning that
something is amiss through a divergence.

By
example, the prevailing trend in the markets is obviously down.
Accordingly, the number of stocks in the Undervalued category is
increasing. In 2004 and 2005 when the markets were rising, the Undervalued
category shrank to levels that were coincident with previous major
market tops. While the dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial
Average failed to decline to its repetitive area of Overvalue, the
fact that there were so few stocks representing good historical
value was a tip-off that risk far out-weighed any potential reward.
The
most important data we publish is the stock tables because at the
end of the day it is the individual stocks we invest in, not the
markets. It is the dividends the companies pay and the dividend
trends that are important. As Geraldine Weiss (the founder of Investment
Quality Trends) has stated many times, "dividends and dividend
trends are the rhythm and the melody; everything else is just the
flutes and the woodwinds."
Not
to sound like a politician then, heaven knows there is enough of
that to go around, but my comments are more nuanced; things in the
periphery I pick up on that adds color to the data. Hopefully these
musings and insights contribute to Subscribers considerations and
deliberations in a positive way, which is my intention.
Louise
Yamada, the respected market technician and author of Market Magic
recently shared some work on long-term market cycles that are interesting.
Three items that caught my attention: "Gold broke out of a
22-year downtrend in 2002 and entered a new structural bull market;
the CRB (Commodities Research Bureau) Index in 2003 broke out into
a new structural bull market; oil in 2004 lifted through a 24-year
plateau and, based on historical studies, entered into a new multi-year
uptrend never to come back down to the old lows. That doesn’t mean
it can’t come down a little but it has never come back down to where
it was before in these multi-year step ups in price."
If
Louise is correct in her assessment, Barrick Gold (ABX) (currently
a Faded Blue), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Chevron (CVX) (at
$82 or better) come to mind as stocks that would perform well in
such an environment.
MAIL
CALL
Questions
from Subscribers and Seminar Attendees.
Q.
As a long-term Subscriber I have often wondered why you haven’t
created a mutual fund or ETF for investors that cannot meet
the $1,000,000 minimum at IQ Trends Private Client. Given your track
record I would think that would be very popular. Do you have
any plans for a fund or ETF in the future?
A.
We recognize a $1,000,000 minimum is a significant hurdle for
many investors. We also recognize the vast popularity of mutual
funds and ETF’s. Our Consulting Platform, which has no dollar minimum,
was designed in part to address that issue but it also requires
the investor to be responsible for executing the trades and tracking
performance. While this is attractive and quite popular with financial
professionals and the "do-it-yourselfers," it has left
a gap for the fund or ETF investor.
To
that end we have devoted considerable time to determine whether
one or both vehicles would work with our approach and fit into our
vision for investment management. Part of our research has consisted
of a number of discussions with some well established fund families
and ETF providers who agree with your assessment that such an offering(s)
would be well received by the marketplace. While this is quite flattering
and we appreciate the demand, at the end of the day we have not
been able to reconcile some fundamental issues we have with the
internal mechanics of both platforms.
Recently,
however, we were introduced to a platform that for all intents and
purposes will allow us to offer a portfolio that has all of the
favorable attributes of a mutual fund or ETF but without the inherent
issues we find objectionable. Due to the advanced technology at
our disposal with this platform, we will be able to offer access
to a portfolio that has the attributes of both The Lucky 13 and
the Timely Ten but is actively managed.
We
are still finalizing some of the details but we feel the platform
should be available in the fourth quarter. We will provide more
details and a timetable as they become available, so stay tuned!
Kelley
Wright’s stock newsletter Investment Quality Trends is currently
performing at the top all of his peers on Wall Street for the past
20 years and is ranked #4 in risk-adjusted performance by Hulbert’s
Financial Digest. Kelley’s stock newsletter, IQTrends.com, is earning
11.6% in annualized gains over the past 20 years, according to Hulbert’s,
compared to general stock market performance of 11% (as of May 2008).
IQTrends.com also has lower risk and volatility than the market
average. To subscribe, go to IQTrends.com
Regulatory Reminder
Please
keep in mind that as an investment newsletter, the staff at Investment
QualityTrends are legally bound to only answer questions of a general
nature and are unable to provide specific buy/sell recommendations
or specific advice on an individual basis. For those interested
in obtaining more information on individual management services
in accordance with our approach, our sister company, I.Q. Trends
Private Client Asset Management, is a Registered Investment Adviser
with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among the platforms
available through I.Q. Trends Private Client are individual portfolio
consultations and active account management. For more information,
please contact Mr. Michael Minney at (866) 927-5250 ext. 201. Disclosure
documents are located at: http://www.iqtrendsprivateclient.com
Please
note: This article is intended to educate and inform individual
investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their
personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned
in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
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The September Back to School Stock Sales
and Other Wall Street Trends.
Subscribers
chat with Natalie Pace on August 27, 2008.
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Photo of
Natalie Pace by: Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008.
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079. |
Over the
past six years, we’ve been talking about a few Wall Street trends
that professional traders have come to rely on – namely the election
year and monthly stock market performance trends. You may have heard
that Wall Street aphorism, "Sell in May and go away,"
but did you know that September is historically the worst performing
month each year? Or that October has hosted the worst days in Wall
Street history, including Black Monday (October 19, 1987) and Black
Thursday (October 24, 1929)?
You probably
suspected that the elections have a big impact on the stock market,
but did you know the pre-election and election years produce almost
double the returns of the two post-election years? Did you that
the Santa Rally – the last quarter of the year -- typically produces
over 50% of the stock market gains?
Since this
is an election year and we’re poised on the brink of the Santa Rally,
you might think that all of that adds up to a heyday in the markets
to 2008, but that wasn’t the case in 2000 – another hotly contested
election year. In 2000, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost over 40%
of its value between September 1, 2000 and January 3, 2001.
Stock Market
Performance from September 1, 2000 to January 3, 2001

What does
all of this mean in 2008? Which way is the wind blowing? How does
a company with a hot new product, like the Apple iPhone, go down
in share price?
Subscribers
chatted with Natalie Pace on August 27, 2008, asking her this and
much, much more.
QUESTION:
What’s
the best way to begin learning about investing?
Answer: My Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat is actually the best way to begin because
you immerse yourself in learning for three days, after which you
are completely transformed. I’ve watched newbie scaredy cat investors
gain an extreme amount of confidence and wisdom and tools in just
three short days. When you think about it, you spend four years
at the university and you don’t learn much of anything that is really
useful in successful investing. There are doctors, lawyers, investment
bankers, MBAs, lots of people who have difficulty really making
money at investing because their systems are too complicated or
they rely too heavily upon this or that software or technical analysis
or their friends’ hot tips. When you learn how to tap into your
unique skills and passions and have a framework of identifying the
right company at the right price – all of which are taught at the
retreat – you set up a solid, proven foundation for your investing.
It’s worked for Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch and Natalie Pace,
and it can work for you, too.
I’m coming
to the retreat. Do I need to do anything to prepare for it?
The best thing
is to the headline article, the Stock Report Card in that article
and the Hot News article. Then write down a list of questions that
we can answer for you at the retreat. Since there are only a dozen
people in the room, pretty much EVERY question receives an answer.
The headline article in the August ezine was the Company of the
Year article! Since three out of five Company of the Year selections
have doubled or more, you definitely want to read that article!
I am happy
with my investment in Suntech and our 40% gain. We cashed out. I’m
hoping that the retreat will help me to know how to do that, instead
of always relying upon you.
FYI: The retreat
in September is sold out, but I’m doing another one October 21-23,
2008. There are only a dozen seats in these two retreats – hands-on
learning directly from me! The October retreat only has a few seats
remaining so if you’re interested you need to contact Heather right
away at Heather@NataliePace.com
or 866.476.7442.
While a university
degree costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, my retreat, which
is designed to create a great investor out of you, only costs $1295
per person or $1880 per couple. Imagine the wealth you can start
accumulating after you jumpstart your game! Your 40% gain is something
that anyone can enjoy.
I want to brag
about you for just a moment because you just started an investment
club a few months ago. The first buy was Suntech, which, as you
said, was just sold for 40% gain! This all happened in just a few
short months.
Less than
two months! It was very encouraging!
So everyone
should understand that this is do-able. This year the strategy is
take your profits early and often. The markets are down on the year
and the year is predicted to continue to be challenging. 40% gains
in a market that has lost 14% of its value is great! Professionals
would be leaping through their skin to brag about that!
What resources
(websites, newsletters, publications, etc.) do you specifically
use in doing your research on companies?
Again, let me
say that at the retreat, you bring your computer and learn firsthand
all of my resources, including the power searching that I do. I
rely largely upon the Bible of the company, which are their earnings
reports. The quarterly and annual earnings reports of publicly traded
companies are available online at SEC.GOV. These reports are bulky
and impossible to read, unless you know how to do power searching
on key words. Some of the key words that I search on include net
income, revenue, debt, liabilit (drop the y because some companies
use liability and others liabilities, so if you use the y you miss
hitting the search). Management discussion. Lawsuit. Etc. What’s
really key to my success, however, is the Stock Report Card, the
3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits and the four questions
to finding a winning stock.
That sounds
like a lot of work!
It’s less work
than reading an article and, at the same time, more information
than most analysts consider when making their recommendations! The
cool thing is that with the recipe and the four questions, a lot
of the information that you are using is information that you already
know as a shopper of the company. With the stock report card, it
provides a way to look at all of the key numbers of the company
that you are interested in, alongside the competition. This information
can be put together in about 15 minutes, and provides you with a
lot more data and useable information than you will find in most
articles.
What are
the four questions you are referring to? Sorry, you may have already
listed them.
Below are the
Four Basic Questions for Picking Winning Stocks, using Google as
the example. These questions helped me to pick Google
as such a hot stock at the IPO back in May of 2004, when all of
the other pundits were pooh-poohing the company as too weird to
shine and without a proven revenue stream to support the valuations
that the share price was being driven up to.
Four Basic
Questions for Picking Winning Stocks
1. What’s
the product?
Search
engine. Something we all need and use daily, to the point that "Google
it" has become part of the language. (You don’t hear anyone
saying "Yahoo it," do you?)
2. Who’s
going to buy it, and why would they like that product more than
the competitor’s version?
Google
was also the number-one search engine in the U.S., UK, Germany,
France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and Australia, with
81.9 million global unique users per month. Why did users like the
product better? It was a better search engine, returning dozens
more pertinent options per inquiry than the competition. Additionally,
they developed the easy-to-use text ads, which looked pleasingly
similar to the responses to your search query. And, there were none
of the dreaded pop-up ads.
3. Can
the company make a superior product and get it to the masses while
the customer’s appetite is piqued and the product is fresh?
Google
had been leading search queries online for so long that it had become
a pop phenomenon. Just as Kleenex has become a generic term for
tissue, Google has come to mean "search," regardless of
which search engine was being used. Whenever a company achieves
that level of supremacy, they are more difficult to displace because,
without advertising, their brand is handed down generation to generation
by word of mouth. Additionally, Google made it easy for smaller,
local mom-and-pop companies to capture a part of the global search
marketplace (and a little revenue stream of their own), while beautifying
the Google bottom line. Google is entrenched in the American lifestyle,
as well as in many nations around the globe.
4. Who’s
running the company, and how motivated are the employees to deliver
superior product faster, cheaper, better?
The
two guys who founded Google were young, energetic Stanford graduate
students. The experienced Internet CEO they hired to oversee the
business agreed to be involved in a "triumvirate" of power,
which meant that the sensible energy that had brought a billion
dollars in revenue to the company would still carry weight. The
three executives required engineers to spend a day a week on projects
that interested them, unrelated to their day jobs. The Google reception
area was decorated with lava lamps and beanbag chairs. The founders
regularly skated in the biweekly roller hockey game during lunchtime.
Employees were known to gain the "Google 20"—20 pounds
they put on because Google offers free food to their staff members.
And the company promised to make money without being evil. Lofty
goals perhaps, but it certainly seemed to be working.
I have a motto
that says, "Happy people make better products faster, cheaper."
Google’s book on success might very well bear that title.
Now, this is
an excerpt from my new book, Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is. I highly recommend
that you pre-order it on Amazon.com now. Almost every question that
has been asked today is answered in that book. If you attend my
retreat and buy the book, then the odds that you shift into wealth
consciousness and profitable investing increase greatly.
If you buy the
book without the 3-day retreat, you miss out on learning how to
put my teachings into an actionable investment plan. When my book
is a massive success, you will be VERY glad that you attended a
retreat early on, when there were just a dozen people in the room.
My retreats will not be intimate in the future.
Those tips
on Suntech were super useful to us!
Check out the
Solar
Report Card and the Company
of the Year article (vol. 5, issue 8) last month to really
see what I’m talking about re: Suntech and Sunpower.
You’ll see right
off the bat that Suntech has a profit margin of 13%, whereas Sunpower’s
margin is just 5%. That’s a huge competitive advantage. You’ll also
see that Suntech’s price to earnings ratio is 22, whereas Sunpower’s
is 45. That simply means that on the buy low; sell high continuum,
Suntech is on sale and with Sunpower, you are paying above the retail
price. There are many other indicators and most add up to Suntech,
over Sunpower, when you are just looking at the numbers.
After lining
up the numbers, you also need to consider what lies ahead and that’s
where we get to the four questions. That’s why I say you want to
use all of these tools, not just one. When you get through with
the Stock Report Card and the four questions, then you still need
to use the 3-ingredient investment recipe to guide your buy and
sell.
Natalie’s
3-Ingredient Recipe for Cooking Up Profits
- Invest in
what you know and love (that way you know how to value it)
- Pick the
leader in the sector (in real estate, it’s location, location,
location)
- Buy low;
sell high (easy to say; hard to do)
Now you might
think, that’s a lot of stuff to remember! Which is why you want
to buy the book and keep it as your resource guide, and come to
the retreat to start developing these tools as habits.
I do not
understand how a company like Apple goes down (share prices), when
there are thousands of people in line to get a sold out iPhone that’s
a huge success!
If you want
to check out what I’m going to say while I’m commenting, just enter
AAPL or Apple in the Company Research box on the home page at NataliePace.com.
Now, full disclosure, Apple was on my Hot news list in 2007 and
on the Cooling Off List in 2008. We made a lot of gains on both
positions! I put Apple on the Hot List at $85 and took it off after
it posted 57% gains. I put Apple on the Cooling Off list and took
it off when the put option was "in the money" by 35%.
So, how did
you know to sell Apple and put it on the Cooling Off list?
One of the reasons
is that we have been in a bear market all year. The stock market
current is floating downstream. It is difficult for ANY company
to post gains when the entire marketplace is losing ground. That
is THE MOST IMPORTANT consideration. Which is why this year my mantra
has been, "Take your profits early and often." Even great
companies have only been able to swim upstream for a few days before
the share price gets drug down again.
Who/what
decides/determines the current flow to the marketplace?
The marketplace
direction is highly correlated to GDP growth, which is released
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at BEA.GOV.
But, let’s take
a layman’s look at why I thought that Apple was a cooling off stock
when the iPhone was so hot. Apple’s revenues are derived almost
exclusively from the consumer wallet. (PCs on the other hand get
more help from the corporate spenders.)
Ahhh! Check
up on who the customer is, like your Four Questions tell us to do!
Right! So, when
you have high oil prices (high gas prices), a downturn in real estate
(meaning people can’t use their home equity as an ATM machine any
more), increasing prices on other core needs, like food, etc., you
can see that people may make their current phone last longer and
opt out of the hip, new, cool iPhone. Apple does a great job of
creating demand for their products by limiting supply, but that
doesn’t mean that they will withstand the pressures of the consumer
wallet constraints. So, my way of researching and looking at the
company requires much more than reading headlines. But it’s not
more difficult or time consuming. You’re just using a structured
reasoning platform to ask the more pertinent questions.
If you click
on the Financials page of Apple from your favorite financial website
(Google, MSN, Yahoo, etc.), then you’ll see that Apple’s third quarter
2008 sales were lower than the second quarter sales. That’s the
first time that has happened in years.
If you didn’t
know from the obvious who the customer was, what site would you
gather that information from?
Well, remember,
the first ingredient in the recipe for cooking up profits is to
know the company well. Knowing what the product or service is and
who buys it is key to understanding the basics about the company,
and you’re better off starting with goods, services and companies
that you know something about than starting off with a meaningless
name and trying to learn all of this information about the company.
However, if you have a really Hot Tip and you want to start the
process of getting to know the company, you can see an overview
of what they do and who their customer is on the About Us page of
their website. You’ll typically find a list of their partners and
customers on the website as well. If the company description and
customer/partner lists are not listed in their own link on the website,
then check the company press releases. Typically there will be an
About Us section at the bottom of the press release.
Ahhh… Sticking
with what I know…
And love. Reading
headlines and following hot tips are two of the most common investing
mistakes. Reading headlines, which are based upon the press releases,
which are written by the company, which are rah rah speeches to
get you to like their stock, is a sure recipe for disaster because
the success of a company is highly correlated with EARNINGS, not
hype. In the short term, it is headlines, but if the earnings reports
don’t match the headlines or if the general marketplace is under
pressure, then tomorrow’s headline will be based upon the new and
not so impressive earnings report, and the share price will go down.
You want to have a clear understanding of what the earnings reports
are going to look like. And that is better derived through
the Stock Report Card, the Four Questions, the 3-ingredient recipe
for cooking up profits and then my market reports and these chats
than through reading articles.
When did
this bear market begin?
As I said, the
general marketplace is highly correlated with GDP growth, which
tanked in the last quarter of 2007. That’s when the markets began
to dive. GDP growth is predicted to remain anemic until 2010, although
we did have a surprise this quarter with the 3.3 GDP growth preliminary
estimates that were released on August 28 (prompting a rally in
the stock market that day). The housing market is a crisis for some
homeowners, but in the positive category, people have been driving
much less this year, which reduced the amount of oil that we imported.
That reduction in imports, as well as the state and federal government
spending, played a big part in our GDP growth in the second quarter!
GDP
Growth Rates
|
GDP
Growth
|
Period
|
|
4.9%
|
3Q
2007
|
|
.6%
|
4Q
2007
|
|
.9%
|
1Q
2008
|
|
3.3%
|
2Q 2008
(preliminary)
|
Source: Bea.gov
and Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Stock market
performance Jan. 2007 through August 29, 2008

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
There are other
factors to consider, especially in the short term. For instance,
the Santa Rally (stock market performance between October and the
end of December) worked in another election year – 2004.
Stock Market
Performance from September 1, 2004 to January 3, 2005

But was a disaster
in 2000…
Stock Market
Performance from September 1, 2000 to January 3, 2001

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com
Natalie’s
Note: (Incidentally, you can create charts like this for yourself
on MoneyCentral.msn.com.)
Will there be
a Santa Rally this year? That is one of the topics I’ll start addressing
in the upcoming ezines. We’ll be hosting a few economists in the
chat room to discuss where the markets are headed, as we near the
election in November!
Where did
you say the best place to learn about options are and where would
go to watch metals/commodities prices?
We cover options
at my retreat, and the information covered there is ESSENTIAL for
investing in options. I’m biased, but it’s hard to match my success.
You should learn from people who have a lot of experience and success
(gains) over time. That is a small group, of which I’m one. Options
trading is more difficult and more risky, so your most important
investment is to hitch your learning to someone who is truly great
at all of these things and has had a lot of measurable performance
gains (on average when all positions are considered, not just a
few select positions) over an extended period of time, through bull
and bear markets. This year, my system of analysis has come up with
28 winners, with only 7 companies that are performing in the opposite
direction (as was my track record as of the August 18, 2008 Hot
News on Cool Stocks mid-month update). Some of the best performers
are on the Cooling Off list (aka "put" options).
Thanks for
the recent note on selling Suntech. Morningstar just rated it a
5-star stock, and one could consider buying at these levels. What
do you think will be a good re-entry point?
Bear markets
typically provide multiple buy-in opportunities, even on highly
rated stocks, which is why the mantra this year (again) is, "Take
your profits early and often." 40% gain is a gain. We’ll keep
Suntech on the Hot News article and report on it and highlight it
when we think the price to earnings ratio is in a good place, relative
to the marketplace. The marketplace is VERY dynamic right now and
we’re entering the month that usually posts the worst gains of the
year – September. That’s why I don’t just throw out a number. It
might be Wake Me Up When September ends and see what the price is
then.
I didn’t
receive the note on Suntech!
Notes from Natalie
are part of our service for our Premium Subscribers. If you didn’t
check out the note on the Premium Subscriber’s Sharing Wisdom bulletin
board, then you are probably not a premium subscriber. By the way,
a premium subscription is included FREE when you attend my retreat,
so you receive ongoing wisdom and support at the highest level all
year long.
So, you only
tell the premium subscribers when it’s time to sell?
No, that’s not
the model. The standard subscription includes the monthly ezine,
the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks article and these online chats,
whereas the premium subscription includes special Notes from Natalie
on volatile market days, special premium subscribers only online
monthly chats and quarterly teleconferences with me. The premium
subscription costs more and they receive ongoing news and access
to question and answer sessions with me. The standard subscription
operates more like a magazine, with the added bonus that you get
to participate in monthly chats as well. Also, remember, I’m a journalist,
like Forbes, not a broker or analyst, like Schwab. I report on the
news. You take that information, and together with your certified
financial plan and according to your Freedom Plan blueprint, determine
what you will buy and sell.
Are there
any environmentally and socially responsible mutual funds that you
like?
I like the PowerShares
Clean Energy portfolio (PBW). But the interesting thing is that
it never performs as well as the green individual companies that
are listed on the Hot News list. So, the best "mutual fund"
might be to create your own basket of stocks from the Hot News list
and call it your green fund. If you own about a dozen green
stocks then you are more protected than if you just bank on one.
If you are buying and selling within your IRA or other tax-protected
brokerage account, then you can take your profits without paying
capital gains, as well.
When’s your
next retreat?
October 21-23,
2008, and it is almost sold out, with only a few seats remaining!
Remember: retreat attendees receive a Premium Subscription and the
21-day coaching call series, meaning that you get $8000 value for
just $1295 for one person (or $1880 for a couple, receiving $16,000
value). There are a dozen people only in the room learning investing
firsthand from me. It’s a great way to protect your nest egg from
bear market losses and learn how to post great gains with reduced
risk. I do teach options there because put options (done with the
proper window and strategy) are the easiest way to benefit from
the downturn in the markets. Options are riskier than stocks and
more difficult to learn, but after two and a half days of the retreat,
people are usually primed enough to start understanding the basics
of the put and call option. Call 866.476.7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com
to sign up for the October retreat! Thanks for joining me this morning.
Have a great day.
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Fake Seals and Phony
Numbers: How Fraudsters Try to Look Legit.
Investor
Alert from the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
It's
a hard, cold fact: fraudsters lie. That's how they attempt to make
money. They lie when they promise you "guaranteed" high returns
with little or no risk. And they lie when they forget to mention
that the company or product they're touting doesn't exist.
Some fraudsters
tell straightforward lies, fabricating facts or making bogus claims.
That's why we encourage investors to do their own independent research
and to remember that wonderful, timeless adage: "If it sounds too
good to be true, it probably is." Other fraudsters salt their stories
with grains of truth to give their schemes an air of legitimacy.
For many years, the SEC and securities regulators around the globe
have been encouraging investors to investigate before they invest
— to ask tough questions about their investments and the people
who sell them. Taking their cue from us, some fraudsters now pretend
to do the same.
One ruse fraudsters
use involves assurances that an investment has been registered with
the appropriate agency. The fraudsters will purport to give you
the agency's telephone number and invite you to verify for yourself
the "authenticity" of their claims. But even if the agency does
exist, the contact information almost certainly will be false. Instead
of speaking with an actual government official, you'll reach the
fraudsters or their colleagues — who will give the company, the
promoter, or the transaction high marks.
Another trick
involves the misuse of a regulator's seal. The fraudsters copy the
official seal or logo from the regulator's website — or create a
bogus seal for a fictitious entity — and then use that seal on documents
or web pages to make the deal look legitimate. You should be aware
that the SEC — like other state and federal regulators in the U.S.
and around the world — does not allow private entities to use its
seal. Moreover, the SEC does not "approve" or "endorse" any particular
securities, issuers, products, services, professional credentials,
firms, or individuals.
Here's how you
can protect yourself against these and other deceptive tactics:
* Deal
Only With Real Regulators — It's not hard to figure out who
the real regulators are and how you can contact them. You'll find
a list of international securities regulators on the website of
the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)
and a directory of state and provincial regulators in Canada, Mexico,
and the U.S. on the website of the North American Securities Administrators
Association (NASAA). If someone encourages you to verify information
about a deal with an entity that doesn't appear on these lists —
such as the "Federal Regulatory & Compliance Department," the
"Securities and Registration Compliance" agency, or the "U.S. Securities
Registration Bureau" — you're probably dealing with fraudsters.
You'll find legitimate contact information for the SEC in the Contact
Us section of our website and on SEC Division Homepages. If you're
ever unsure whether you're dealing with someone from the real SEC,
use our online Question Form to ask us.
* Be
Skeptical of Government "Approval" — The SEC does not evaluate
the merits of any securities offering, nor do we determine whether
a particular security is a "good" investment. Instead, the SEC's
staff reviews registration statements for securities offerings and
declares those statements "effective" if the companies appear to
have satisfied our disclosure rules. In general, all securities
offered in the U.S. must be registered with the SEC or must qualify
for an exemption from the registration requirements. You can check
to see whether a company has registered its securities with the
SEC and download its disclosure documents using our EDGAR database
of company filings.
* Look
Past Fancy Seals and Impressive Letterheads — Most people who
use computers know how easy it can be to copy and paste images.
As a result, today's technology allows fraudsters to create impressive,
legitimate-looking websites and stationery at little to no cost.
Don't be taken in by a glossy brochure, a glitzy website, or the
presence of a regulator's official seal on a web page or document.
Again, the SEC does not authorize private companies to use our seal
— even as a legitimate link to our website. If you see the SEC seal
on a company's website or materials, think twice.
* Check
Out the Broker and the Firm — Always verify whether any broker
offering to buy or sell securities is properly licensed to do business
in your state, province, or country. If the person claims to work
with a U.S. brokerage firm, call NASD's Public Disclosure Program
hotline at (800) 289-9999 or visit NASD's website to check out the
background of both the individual broker and the firm. Be sure to
confirm whether the firm actually exists and is current in its registration,
and ask whether the broker or the firm has a history of complaints.
You can often get even more information from your state securities
regulator.
* Be
Wary of "Advance Fee" or "Recovery Room" Schemes — An increasing
number of investment-related frauds target investors worldwide who
purchase "microcap" stocks, the low-priced and thinly traded stocks
issued by the smallest of U.S. companies. If the stock price falls
or the company goes out of business, the fraudsters swoop in, falsely
claiming that they can help investors recover their losses — for
a substantial fee disguised as some type of tax, deposit, or refundable
insurance bond. As soon as an unwary investor pays the "advance
fees," the fraudsters disappear — leaving the investor with even
higher losses. For more information about these types of frauds,
please read our publication entitled The Fleecing of Foreign Investors.
If you want
to invest wisely and steer clear of frauds, you must get the facts.
Never, ever, make an investment based solely on a promoter's promises
or what you see on the Internet — especially if the investment involves
a small, thinly-traded company that isn't well known. And don't
even think about investing on your own in small companies that don't
file regular reports with the SEC, unless you are willing to investigate
each company thoroughly and to check the truth of every statement
about the company. For more information on investing wisely, visit
the Investor Information section of our website.
The Sec.gov
has provided this information ass a service to investors. It is
neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of SEC policy. If
you have questions concerning the meaning or application of a particular
law or rule, please consult with an attorney who specializes in
securities law.
|
|
The
Hare Wins the Dash; Jabba the Hut Rules the Universe.
by Natalie
Pace. How to Pick Winning Companies in a Challenging Stock Market.
Is
there another way to separate the slow, steady companies from the
fast-growing companies? In short, the bigger the company, typically
the slower the revenue growth, due to increased competition and
market saturation. The smaller and younger the company, the faster
the growth, especially if it’s in a new, hot industry and has the
best product in that space. There is greater potential for gains
in small cap companies, which can justify paying a higher P/E and
sometimes even buying in before the company is profitable (with
a P/E of N/A).
I refer to hot,
young companies as "the hare," and steady, reliable companies—like
General Electric, Microsoft and other big, fat Blue Chips—as Jabba
the Hutt. The hare can win the dash and make you very happy and
rich in the short run; Jabba the Hut wins the marathon and adds
stability to the foundation of your nest egg. Keeping the small,
growth company well-fed and fiscally fit requires a lot of tending.
If you’re not willing to do the research and keep your eye on the
temperature of the sector, the cash on hand, the earnings growth,
the insider trading and/or the deal flow, you might miss cashing
in your gains. Reduce risk while gaining exposure to the hares by
owning Small Cap Exchange Traded Funds.
Jabba the Hutt
rules the universe and wins the marathon. If he gains or loses a
pound or two in the meantime, you’re not going to notice much. There
is much less gain or loss or spectacular movements in share price
in these big companies, which can be a very stabilizing force for
your nest egg, but a frustrating presence in a trading portfolio.
And if the hare is winning
every race in their field, Jabba the Hutt companies will either
gobble up the hare (acquire the company), step on the hare (beat
them with a price war or other competitive tactic), sideline the
hare (tie up the executives with legal wrangling), or utilize some
other trick to win back the profits. Reduce risk in your nest egg
by owning Large Cap Exchange Traded Funds.
In short, for
your trading portfolio, where you are looking to take your profits
in shorter windows, the smaller, younger, fast-growth companies
are really going to afford the highest returns (with higher volatility
and more risk as well). You’ll want some Jabba the Hutts in your
long-term portfolio for the stability (as well as some hares for
growth). The easiest way to identify the two in your retirement
plan is that hares are called "small caps," and Jabbas
are called "big caps." If you have small, medium, and
big caps, with both value and growth stocks, then you are diversifying—a
good thing for long-term investing.
Natalie’s
Note: Companies which are experiencing rapid growth, like Google
and Opsware did between 2002 and 2007, can have a higher price to
earnings ratio, or even a negative price to earnings ratio when
they first start out, because the earnings side of the equation
is growing rapidly and will eventually bring down the P/E ratio.
For your Jabba the Hutt large cap stocks, a high price to earnings
ratio is not desirable because there is not the earnings growth
to offset the popularity of the stock. In other words if Coca-Cola
or Exxon Mobil or another multi-billion dollar, century old corporation
is trading with a P/E above 20, you are paying top dollar for your
stock. The Never Pay Retail investor (aka value investor) would
wait for a low price to earnings ratio, beneath 12 ideally, to add
the Jabba the Hutt company to her portfolio.
|
|
Green
Your Portfolio.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
August 18,
2008
Note:
This article is a reprint of the August 18, 2008 mid-month update.
The news in the below charts is updated, as are all of the share
prices.
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday,
1.3.2006
|
Wednesday,
1.3.2007
|
Monday,
1.2.2008
|
Friday,
9.2.2008
|
Gains
2-year , 1-year & 7 mo.
|
|
Dow: 10,847.41
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow:
13,044.12
|
Dow:
11,651.92
|
+7%
& -7%
& -11%
|
|
Nasdaq:
2,243.74
|
Nasdaq:
2,423.16
|
Nasdaq:
2,609.63
|
Nasdaq:
2372.80
|
+6%
&
-2%
& -9%
|
|
S&P:
1,268.80
|
S&P:
1,416.60
|
S&P:
1,447.16
|
S&P:
1,286.34
|
+1%
&
-9% & -11%
|
Imagine…
 |
| Actress
Salma Hayek and Global Green USA CEO Matt Petersen Unite to
raise awareness of hybrid and electric cars. Photo © Global
Green USA. 2008. GlobalGreen.org |
Since November
of 2007, we have seen eight months of reduced driving. New data
released on August 13, 2008 by the U.S. Department of Transportation
shows that, since last November, Americans have driven 53.2 billion
miles less than they did over the same period a year earlier – topping
the 1970s’ total decline of 49.3 billion miles.
Americans
drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008
than June 2007. And that decline in demand is largely responsible
for a decline in oil prices to $115 from the all-time high of $140
back in June.
Imagine what
the price of oil would be if everyone charged their electric cars
with solar energy…
That reality
could be closer than you imagine.
Check out Phoenix
MotorCars and Tesla
Motors for two electric cars that are coming online next
year. Attend the AltCar
Show to test drive even more contenders (to be held
in Santa Monica, in September). Even General
Motors is getting into the game with their concept car,
Chevy Volt.
You can plug
into the emerging trend of electric cars -- which can be powered
by plugging into a wall socket, with electricity generated by solar
panels -- by investing in clean energy now. And the best part is
that Clean Energy was the top performing industry on Wall Street
in 2007 – earning almost 60 cents on the dollar, almost double the
returns of the second highest performer, oil. You can get rich and
green – best of all worlds – and no imagination necessary. This
is a reality that some of the world’s wealthiest people are working
hard to bring about. (Check out the list of people who signed up
to buy the Tesla Roadster.)
Few brokers
are making it easy to invest in green -- yet. However, it’s not
that difficult to start "greening" your nest egg on your
own. There is a new trend of green Exchange Traded Funds, two of
which are listed below on the Hot News list. And there are a large
number of green companies listed there as well. So, you could even
own a basket of green companies from this list in your own, personalized,
"green" fund, as part of your diversification strategy.
Natalie’s
Note: A green fund is simply one stock that holds a number of green
companies. If the fund is an Exchange Traded Fund, or ETF, the criteria
for which companies will be included is determined by automatic
screens (which are set up the fund manager). If it is a mutual fund,
the selection is made on a regular basis, i.e. actively managed,
by a fund manager.
What do I mean
by "diversification?" Basically, your best bet for a successful
investment portfolio is to have holdings in real estate, stocks,
bonds and cash, and then, within the stock portion of your nest
egg, to be diversified, so that not all of your money is in one
particular industry. People who only invested in real estate are
hurting right now. According to the Treasury Department, two million
Americans are in the foreclosure process. Diversification helps
to prevent over-exposure. Those Americans who were invested in real
estate, stocks and bonds were less likely to be as speculative as
those who thought real estate was a goose that gives golden eggs
forever.
The financial
industry has suffered the most in 2008, so if you were invested
only in bank stocks, you’d be hurting. Alternatively, if you owned
stock in some of the great biotech companies, like Genentech and
OSI Pharmaceuticals, you’d be looking at over 40% gains this year.
Since you never know definitively which industry is going to be
in favor and which will tank (before it happens), it’s a good idea
to be diversified enough to avoid a reversal of fortune. Over time,
stocks bonds and real estate perform well, and the trick is to be
in a position to take a long view and enjoy the compounding of the
gains.
Gains of
Real Estate, Stocks, Bonds and Gold over the Past 39 Years

Below are two
sample, diversified portfolios, based upon age.
 
As you can
see, a good strategy is to:
1. Keep a percent
equal to your age safe
2. Safe
investments are Treasury Bills, FDIC insured Certificates of Deposits
and bonds (which guarantee a return of your money and a monthly
yield)
3. Diversify
the remaining part of your liquid portfolio between small, medium
sized and large companies.
4. Have
both Value (on sale) and Growth (explosive growth trend in earnings)
Google is a
large cap, green company. Suntech Power Holdings is a mid-cap (from
$1-5 billion market cap). Altair Nanotechnology is a small cap (with
a value of under $1 billion). The entire solar industry is a growth
industry. Companies have seen their sales doubling and tripling
over the past two years. And yet, there are many green value stocks
because there was a pullback on this industry in 2008. I’ve highlighted
Altair Nanotechnology, American Superconductor and World Water and
Solar as trading for an attractive price in the Hot News list below.
Green
companies listed on the Hot News charts below:
Altair Nanotechnology
(lithium ion batteries for electric cars)
American
Superconductor (super cable for alt energy transmission)
Conergy
(solar energy)
Emcore
(semiconductors for solar)
General
Electric (wind and solar)
Hoku Scientific
(silicon manufacturing)
LDK Solar
(solar wafers for solar panels manufactuers)
Suntech
Power Holdings (solar panels)
Trina
Solar Ltd. (solar panels)
World
Water & Solar (solar and water systems)
Green
ETFs listed on the Hot News charts:
PowerShares
CleanTech Portfolio (PZD)
PowerShares
Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW)
Green
companies listed on the Watch List (great companies, need a better
price):
eBay (online
classifieds, eliminating paper)
Google
(largest corporate solar installation)
Intel
(green computing organization)
MEMC Electronics
(silicon wafers)
Satcon
(switches for clean energy)
Sohu (online
media, eliminating paper)
Green
companies listed on the Cooling Off List (expected to go down in
value):
First Solar
Imagine…
Exxon Mobil
is the largest corporation on Wall Street by market capitalization,
worth over $400 billion. If you have a pension plan, 401 (k) or
IRA, you probably own the company, whether you know it or not. Imagine
what happens when we take half a trillion dollars out of fossil
fuels (Exxon Mobil and Chevron), and invest in alternative energy.
Imagine how fast the world becomes clean and green.
Imagination
is the birthplace of creation. If we can create lower oil prices
with less driving, why not create solar, wind and geothermal power
with our investment dollars?
How to Know
What You Own
If
you are interested in knowing which stocks you own in your nest
egg, simply log onto NataliePace.com. Enter the five letters of
the stock symbol of the mutual fund into the Company Research Box
on the home page at NataliePace.com. That takes you to a stock page,
where you can click on Top 25 Holdings.
Once you know
what you own, it’s time to invest in the world that you want to
create – not simply the world that the status quo companies make
it easy for you to own (by paying high commissions to the mutual
fund managers). PowerShares.com,
iShares.com
and AMEX.com
all list Exchange Traded Funds from all kinds of industries, including
clean energy, so that you can make more informed decisions as to
the world that you want to create with your investing and spending.
Market
Commentary
Advance
estimates for GDP growth for 2Q 2008 were released on August
28, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The BEA advance estimates were much
higher than estimated, at 3.3%, which was well above the .4% prediction
of the Treasury Dept. By comparison, the GDP growth rate in the
third quarter of 2007 was a reasonably robust 4.9 percent, followed
by anemic 4Q 2007 and 1Q 2008 GDP growth numbers of.4 and .9%, respectively.
So the second quarter GDP growth numbers are something to be encouraged
by.
The best news
is that Americans took matters into their own hands by driving less,
which meant that we imported less fuel! According to the BEA, "The
acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily
reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports,
an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed
investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending
that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment."
Exports increased 13.2%, while imports declined by 7.6%.
One thing to
watch closely is that internal corporate dollars available for capital
spending decreased by $41.3 billion. Industries tied to corporate
spending, like information technology and computers, could be adversely
affected.
Final GDP growth
statistics for 2Q 2008 will be released on September 26, 2008 at
8:30 a.m. ET.
GDP
Growth Rates (Projected from 3Q 2008 through 2Half 2009)
|
GDP
Growth
|
Period
|
|
.9%
|
1Q
2008
|
|
3.3%
|
2Q 2008
|
|
1.5%
|
3Q
2008
|
|
1.2%
|
4Q
2008
|
|
2.2%
|
1Half
2009
|
|
2.8%
|
2Half
2009
|
Source: Bea.gov
and Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Track
Record of our Reporting
While the
markets have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists
below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years.
29 companies listed below have delivered impressive gains, even
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11% on the year!
Only eight of our listings went in the opposite direction of the
reporting. Yes, many, but not all, of our top performers are shorts,
so it’s time to brush up on your options strategies, to read the
Cooling Off List and/or learn a new game.
Even during
the flat year of 2007, our featured companies had outstanding performance
between Oct. 2006 and June 2007! 4 out of 9 companies – almost half
– doubled or more from the time they were featured to the time they
were taken off of the list. 48% of the companies featured in my
stock newsletter between 2002 and 2005 – 25 out of 52 companies
-- DOUBLED as well, and the majority of the remaining 52% well outperformed
the marketplace. (See the chart in the article, "25
of Our Companies Have Doubled," from vol. 4, issue
4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)
3 out
of 5 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year have posted up to 9000%
gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively. MySpace, my 2006 Company of
the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders
that year. Only OSI Pharmaceuticals, my 2005 Company of the
Year, has lost money. So three out of five are superperformers,
one is performing well above the market and one is down. That’s
the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street. (I
launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first
Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)
TipsTraders.com
continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with
their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied
the #1 position. Some of our best picks include: Bioteq Environmental
(BQE) +144%, Blockbuster Video (BBI) +82.5%, Genentech (DNA) +415%,
Google (GOOG) +545%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +139%, LifeCell (LIFC)
+180%, Macerich (MAC) +150%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP)
+145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser
(TASR) up to 9000% gains and World Water & Solar (WWAT) +181%.
(Some of the best picks in 2008 were put options – on the Cooling
Off list. Look there for details.)
Market
Movers:
The Bureau
of Economic Analysis released its preliminary report on the 2nd
quarter 2008 GDP growth on July 31st. The numbers came
in at 3.3%, which was much higher than expected and triple the growth
of the first quarter. The next GDP growth report – final numbers
for the 2nd quarter 2008 GDP growth – will be released on September
26, 2008.
For more BEA
release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Fed funds rate currently stands at two percent. Expect the Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee to continue to ease investor worries,
while monitoring inflation. The prevailing sentiment is still weak
growth, a continued housing slump, more subprime foreclosures, a
weak dollar, anemic consumer spending, turmoil in banks and financial
services, rising gas and food prices and rising unemployment. (Yikes!)
Even with continued
strain in the financial markets, the housing markets and the consumer
wallet, we don’t think that another Fed Fund interest rate reduction
is likely to happen on September 16th.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the August 5, 2008 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can.
The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click
on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov to read! According to the FOMC minutes,
"Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction,
and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth
over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of
monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market
liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth."
The Feds indicate that downside to growth remains (meaning there
is a case to be made for keeping the rates low), but are signaling
that a tick up on interest rates is desirable, writing, "The
upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the
Committee."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2008-2009 calendar is: September 16,
2008 (Tuesday), October 28-29, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December
16, 2008 (Tuesday), January 27-28, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March
17, 2009 (Tuesday), April 28-29, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June
23-24, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 11, 2009 (Tuesday), September
22, 2009 (Tuesday), November 3-4, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December
15, 2009 (Tuesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the
Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many wonderful
opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money managers,
life coaches, economists, respected money gurus, real estate veterans
and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates of the mid-month Hot News
on Cool Stocks Update and the publication date of our next ezine.
Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com. Don’t miss the 21-day Get Rich and Enrich Coaching
Call Series starting on September 8, 2008. Directions on how
to access the call (for renewing subscribers) are posted on the
Sharing
Wisdom bulletin board. If you have not yet renewed, renew
now to get the coaching call series, valued at over $595, for FREE!!!
3.
Survey
Results: Who
will be the next President of the U.S.? What is the most important
issue facing the world today? Our subscribers are more concerned
about the environment than any other issue — but the financial crisis
is a close second. Vote and view on the home page
at NataliePace.com. Simply click on the survey that is currently
on the home page, and you will be taken to a page with all three
of the current surveys. Cast your vote there!
4. Euro
interest rates: At the European Governing Council meeting
on August 7, 2008, it was announced that the rates of 4.25% (main
refinancing), 5.25% (marginal lending) and 3.25% (deposit facility)
would remain unchanged. The next meeting and interest rate announcement
is scheduled for September 4, 2008 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
Altair
Nanotechnology (ALTI) (added back on 9.2.08)
American Superconductor (AMSC)
Melco (MPEL)
New Zealand Dollar ETF (WisdomTree ETF symbol: BNZ)
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
U.S. Gold (UXG)
Wisdom Tree (WSDT)
World Water and Solar (WWAT)
DELETIONS
(Remember to take your profits early and often):
Altair
Nanotechnology (deleted on 8.7.08)
LDK
Solar (9.2.08)
Zoltek (8.15.08)
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
| Company
|
NP
owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
9.2.08 |
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
Altair
Nanotech-nology
RISK:
MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.99
|
$1.99
|
$5.45
$1.63
|
--
|
|
DELETED
from the Hot News list ON AUGUST 7, 2008 and added back on
9.2.08. 2Q earnings (announced on August 6, 2008): For the
quarter ended June 30, 2008, the Company reported revenues
of $1.90 million, down from $3.07 million in the same quarter
of 2007. The net loss was $5.66 million, or seven cents per
share, compared to a net loss of $5.43 million, or eight cents
per share, for the second quarter of 2007. The Company's cash
and cash equivalents decreased by $22.37 million, from $50.15
million at December 31, 2007 to $27.77 million at June 30,
2008.
The 47
Phoenix MotorCars demo Sport Utility Trucks, which use Altair
lithium ion batteries and are expected to hit the road by
October, could generate up to 4 ZEV credits per vehicle for
Altair, as well (10% of the 40 ZEV credits issued per vehicle).
Read the Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, issue 6.
|
|
American
Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$25.96
|
$24.62
|
$47.53
$15.51
|
-5%
|
|
Read the
article "Clean
Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, issue 12.
Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI), Rockwell
(NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature Superconductor
(HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more energy than
a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables electric
utilities to replace multiple conventional copper cables with
one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground real estate
available for other uses – including future power upgrades.
The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar
annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in
the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells.
American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $634 million,
with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC
expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to
50% of sales in fiscal year 2007.
Revenues
for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 were a record $39.8 million,
a 101 percent increase from $19.8 million for the first quarter
of fiscal 2007. Gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal
2008 was 29.2 percent, compared to 18.1 percent for the first
quarter of fiscal 2007. Net loss for the quarter was $6.1
million. AMSC generated a record $3.2 million in cash from
operations for the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Cash, cash
equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash at
June 30, 2008 were $131.5 million, an increase of $12.1 million
from $119.4 million at March 31, 2008.
The company
reported backlog as of June 30, 2008 of approximately $634
million compared with $199 million as of March 31, 2008 and
$73 million as of June 30, 2007.
Revenue
guidance is up, but so is the guidance for the annual loss.
According to David Henry, senior vice president and chief
financial officer, "Because of the significant increase
in our stock valuation during the first quarter and the resulting
increase in non-cash charges associated with stock compensation,
the mark-to-market adjustment on our warrant and other non-operating
factors, we are increasing our net loss guidance to a range
of $13 million to $15 million, or $0.30 to $0.35 per share,
compared with our previous range of $9 million to $12 million."
The AP
and other media reported on the loss (not on the improved
revenue and back orders), so the shares fell from $40 (on
the 1st of the month) to $26 on Friday, the 15th
of August. We love the story and the price.
|
|
Conergy
Based out of Germany
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
CEYHF
|
$22.50
$13.55 (7.31.08)
|
$14.60
|
$96.14
$12.25
|
-35% &
+8%
|
|
See the Wind
Power article
in vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech
Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems
integration.
On August 13, 2008, The Conergy
Group announced that they had successfully completed the construction
of what is currently Asia’s largest photovoltaic plant. The
90 million Euro project, with a peak power output of 19.6
MW, is located in the South Korean city of SinAn, southwest
of the capital Seoul. Commissioned by the Dongyang Engineering
& Construction Corporation, Conergy set up the plant as
a turnkey solution and brought it on grid six months ahead
of schedule. Dongyang has engaged the Hamburg-based solar
energy company now with the expansion of the plant to a total
of 24 MW – an add-on order valued alone at around EUR 20 million.
Conergy intends to complete this on site yet by the end of
the year.
Conergy’s CEO Dieter Ammer: "Just
a few weeks ago we successfully sold the fourth largest photovoltaic
plant in the world with "El Calaveron" in Spain.
The quick completion of the photovoltaic plant in SinAn shows
that despite our restructuring we can continue to book large
operating successes – and the focus on our downstream core
business was absolutely the right decision for our company."
|
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$11.02
$4.92 (7.31.08)
|
$6.08
|
$14.98
$3.84
|
-45%
& +24%
|
|
EMCORE Corp (EMCORE) is a provider
of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems
for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial
solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments:
Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Was awarded an R&D 100
award by R&D Magazine for the IMM solar cell as one of
the most innovative technologies of 2008. Received $29 million
order in June 2008.
Emcore sold two million of its
Series D preferred stock in WWAT to the Quercus Trust, a major
shareholder of both EMCORE and WorldWater, at a price equal
to $0.654 per share of common stock on June 30, 2008. The
sale includes 200,000 warrants to purchase at $0.317/share
equivalent. Emcore reports proceeds from the sale at $13.1
million, or 130% Return on Investment.
3Q earnings: Albuquerque-based
Emcore Corp. reported $75.5 million in revenue for the third
quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year.
That represents a 70 percent increase
over the $44.4 million Emcore reported in the same quarter
last year, and a 34 percent increase over the previous (January-March)
quarter. Net loss $8 million, compared to $15 million a year
ago.
Analyst Coverage was Initiated
by Stanford Research 8.15.08: Buy $10.
|
|
General Electric
RISK: LOW
GREEN
|
No
|
GE
|
$26.69
|
$28.82
|
$42.15
$26.15
|
+8%
|
|
GE is providing innovative solutions
to more than 350 infrastructure projects in and around Beijing,
including work at all 37 official Olympic venues and 168 commercial
buildings. GE’s NBC-TV is also the official network of the
Olympics. Should be great exposure and great press all rolled
into one. All that and dividends, trading at the 52-week low.
We just couldn’t resist. GE is a big presence in renewable
energy these days. Very green…
|
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$5.03 (6.30.08)
|
$5.86
|
$14.55
$2.52
|
-27% &
+17%
|
|
2008 HOKU SCIENTIFIC, INC. Annual
Meeting of Stockholders will be held on September 4,
2008. Announced full year and 4Q earnings May 13, 2008. Since
the company focus shifted from hydrogen fuel cell to silicon
manufacturing in 2007, don’t expect record results. The new
silicon manufacturing facility is still in the process of
being built, but the company is making headway with that as
well as solar projects in their home state of Hawaii. On July
30, 2008, signed $298 million polysilicon supply contract
with Jiangxi Kinko Energy Co.,
a silicon ingots and wafers manufacturer in China, for the
sale and delivery of solar-grade polysilicon to Kinko Energy
over a 10-year period beginning in late-2009.
Read "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, issue 10. Contracted to build
a polysilicon facility in Idaho capable of producing up to
2,500 metric tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho.
In June 2007, Suntech entered into a supply agreement with
Hoku Materials, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Hoku Scientific,
to purchase up to $678 million of polysilicon from Hoku Materials
over a ten year period, with the first shipment scheduled
for delivery in 2009.
On 5.15.08, the Hawaii Public Utilities
Commission approved a contract for Hawaiian Electric Company
to purchase power from a photovoltaic (PV) power system that
Hoku Solar, Inc., will install on the roof of Archer Substation
at Hawaiian Electric's Ward Avenue facility. The 218-kilowatt
PV system is expected to be in service by the end of 2008.To
take advantage of available tax credits and financing, Hoku
or its affiliate will own and operate the PV system and charge
Hawaiian Electric for power at a fixed rate over 20 years.
|
|
Kinetic Concepts, Inc.
|
No
|
KCI
|
$38.81
$34.91
|
$35.95
|
$66.77
$34.51
|
-7% &
+3%
|
|
Read the article, "Beauty
is Skin Deep,"
in vol. 5, issue 5. Has a new wound care system that is helpful
in preventing infections and helps wounds heal much faster.
May start seeing an opening up of one of the biggest medical
care marketplaces around if the product is used for primary
wounds. Currently it is a treatment for wounds that get infected
and have to be reopened. Also, recently purchased LifeCell,
which has explosive growth due to its alloderm product of
replacing burned or aging skin. Reported 2Q 2008 results on
July 24, 2008 of total revenue of $462.1 million, an increase
of 17% from the second quarter of 2007. Net loss for the second
quarter of 2008 on a GAAP basis, including purchase accounting
adjustments and LifeCell transaction-related costs, was $2.7
million, compared to net earnings of $58.1 million for the
same period one year ago. Excluding the impact of the LifeCell
acquisition and related transaction expenses on the Company’s
financial results, KCI’s second quarter net earnings were
$70.5 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, representing increases
of approximately 21% compared to the year-ago period.
|
|
Melco
Crown Entertainment Ltd.
|
No
|
MPEL
|
$6.54
|
$6.54
|
$19.09
$5.90
|
--
|
|
Stay tuned
for the article, "No Viva Las Vegas" in vol. 5,
issue 10 (next month). Operates Crown, a 6- star Resort and
Casino in Macau, the trendy Mocha slot machine cafes and is
developing City of Dreams in Macau, with Hard Rock, Hyatt
and Dragone Entertainment. CEO/Chairman Lawrence Ho is the
son of Macau gambling billionaire Stanley Ho.
|
|
New Zealand
Dollar currency ETF by WisdomTree
|
No
|
BNZ
|
$25.17
|
$23.51
|
$25.31
$24.99
|
-7%
|
|
Read the
article, "Foreign
Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in vol. 5, issue
7, for more information on why New Zealand is the new attraction
on the world currency markets.
|
|
OSI Pharmaceuticals
RISK: HIGH (U.S.)
2005 Company of the Year
|
No
|
OSIP
|
$35.95
|
$49.88
|
$53.71
$28.68
|
+39%
|
|
M&A Watch. There is a lot of
M&A activity in the biotech sector. I’m keeping this active
so see if there is a bid for OSIP… OSIP is a partner of Genentech
(DNA) and Roche and Roche just made a bid to buy Genentech.
NataliePace.com’s 2005
Company of the Year.
Read vol. 1, issue 56. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer
pill," and sales have been exploding. OSIP is now testing
Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung
cancer.
The risk to this stock is that
the majority of the revenues are currently attached to one
drug – Tarceva. In the event of a serious problem with the
drug, the company would likely be doomed.
2Q 2008 earnings on 7.23.08: net
income from continuing operations of $37.2 million (or $0.61
per share) for the three months ended June 30, 2008, compared
with net income from continuing operations of $29.3 million
(or $0.48 per share) for the second quarter of 2007. Total
revenues from continuing operations came to $91 million for
the first quarter of 2008 compared to revenues of $77 million
for the first quarter of 2007, an increase of 17%. The increase
is due to the growth in revenues arising from worldwide Tarceva(R)
(erlotinib) sales, partially offset by a decline in business
development revenue. Total worldwide net sales of Tarceva
for the first quarter of 2008 were approximately $267 million,
as reported by Genentech, Inc. and Roche, the Company's collaborators
for Tarceva, and represent a 35% growth in global sales compared
to global sales of $198 million in the first quarter 2007.
Total worldwide net sales of Tarceva for the second quarter
of 2008, as reported to OSI by the Company’s collaborators
for Tarceva, Genentech, Inc. and Roche, were approximately
$292 million representing a 37% growth in global sales compared
to the same period last year. For the six months ended June
30, 2008, worldwide Tarceva net sales were approximately $559
million representing a 36% increase over the same period last
year.
|
|
PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio
|
No
|
PZD
|
$33.22
|
$32.35
|
$36.93
$25.00
|
-2.5%
|
|
The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio
(Fund) tracks the Cleantech Index (ticker: CTIUS), which
is designed to track the leading cleantech companies, from
a broad range of industry sectors, that offer the best investment
returns. 'Cleantech' companies derive the majority of their
business from knowledge-based products or services that improve
productivity and/or product performance while reducing total
costs, energy and resource consumption, pollution, toxicity,
etc.
|
|
PowerShares
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio
|
No
|
PBW
|
$19.92
|
$19.27
|
$28.84
$17.40
|
flat
|
|
Exchange
Traded Fund in the green, clean, renewable energy space.
|
|
Smith & Nephew
London, England
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SNN
|
$55.78
$53.22
(7.31.08)
|
$58.62
|
$69.20
$51.01
|
+5% &
+10%
|
|
Announced 2Q earnings on August
7 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Read the article in vol.
4, issue 7. The company is based out of London, England,
and with a market cap of $10.57 billion, it is a good diversification
strategy for your portfolio. Additionally, SNN has a piece
of an exploding marketplace in the hip resurfacing business
with its premiere product, called the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing
System.
Upgraded from Neutral to Buy by
Piper Jaffray on 7.15.08.
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
|
Yes
|
STP
|
$40.07
$33.46 (8.1.08)
|
$44.91
|
$90.00
$28.19
|
+12% &
+34%
|
|
Read "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in vol. 5, issue 4. Suntech is the official solar sponsor
of the Beijing Olympics. Expect the company to get a lot of
positive headlines once the beautiful bird’s nest stadium
is broadcast worldwide! STP was our 2007
Company of the Year,
as well as our featured Company
of the Month in October of 2007. Go to vol 4, issue
1 and vol. 3 issue 10 to access those articles.
Q2 2008 results on 8.20.08: Second
quarter 2008 total net revenues grew 51.3% year-over-year
to $480.2 million. Consolidated gross margin increased to
24.1% for the second quarter 2008 compared to 20.3% for the
second quarter 2007. Net income for the second quarter 2008
was $65.2 million or $0.38 per diluted American Depository
Share (ADS).
Suntech's PV cell production capacity
was 540MW at the end of the first quarter of 2008. The Company
is on track to reach 1GW PV cell production capacity by the
end of 2008. On July 29, 2008, Suntech announced that it will
supply Italy's largest power company with 30 megawatts of
photovoltaic modules.
According to Dr. Zhengrong Shi,
Suntech's Chairman and CEO, "A vigorous demand environment
in the major solar markets in Germany and Spain as well as
in the emerging markets including South Korea and Italy drove
strong pricing during the quarter. We expect demand to remain
robust through 2008 and are virtually sold out for the full
year."
2008 Beijing Olympics
"The Bird's Nest Stadium
solar energy project demonstrates China's commitment to clean,
renewable energy and a green Olympics," remarked Dr. Zhengrong
Shi, Suntech's chairman and CEO. "We are delighted that Suntech's
leading PV system has been chosen to help power the main stadium
for the 2008 Beijing Olympics."
Dr. Shi noted that China's first
renewable energy law, which came into effect at the beginning
of 2006, is designed to increase renewable energy use in China.
Suntech is committed to becoming
the 'lowest cost per watt' provider of PV solutions to customers
worldwide. According to Solarbuzz, an independent solar energy
research firm, PV industry revenues were approximately $6.5
billion in 2004. Solarbuzz projects that PV industry revenues
will reach $18.6 billion by 2010.
|
|
Trina Solar Limited
RISK: Medium
Chinese-based ADR
|
No
|
TSL
|
$38.99
$27.52 (8.01.08)
|
$30.91
|
$73.06
$25.88
|
-21% &
+13%
|
|
Read the article, "Solar
Springs Up Again", in vol. 5, issue 4. 1Q 2008
earnings on June 6, 2008: Total net revenues increased to
$120.7 million, up 183.6% year-over-year and 19.0% sequentially.
Net income of $12.9 million includes a foreign currency exchange
loss of $4.0 million, primarily associated with the remeasurement
of the non-US dollar denominated obligations in the US dollar
functional currency.
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado
USA
RISK:
VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$1.08
(8.15.08)
|
$1.23
|
$7.04
$1.84
|
-76% &
+14%
|
|
Note:
U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold
exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration
company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike
gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could
lose your investment. Very risky. However, with rising inflation
and weakening consumer confidence, investors could turn to
gold without really looking. That could mean that U.S. Gold
enjoys a push-up on the general love lust of gold, even while
the company keeps prospecting to determine if they are actually
sitting on a gold mine. Very risky play, with potentially
high rewards.
According
to a press release issued on August 6, 2008, drilling has
resumed on its Cortez Trend properties. The Company's primary
objective in Nevada is to discover the next Cortez Hills deposit.
Cortez Hills, owned by the world's largest gold producer,
is Nevada's largest gold discovery of the past decade and
located just 10 miles (16 km) north of US Gold.
Their
annual shareholder’s meeting was held on June 12, 2008 at
4:00pm in downtown Toronto's Ontario Heritage Centre. (U.S.
Gold’s Chairman and CEO, Rob McEwen is based out of Canada,
while the company is based out of Colorado.) You can see an
AV recording of the meeting at USGold.com. US Gold Corp was
removed from the Russell 2000 index on June 30, 2008.
Began
trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades
on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature
interview with CEO
and Chairman Rob McEwen
in vol. 3, issue 2, and click to hear Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network.
"During
the first half of 2008, US Gold undertook a detailed analysis
of its prior results to determine where the greatest odds
of discovering the next Cortez Hills exist. A lot of people
thought we had abandoned Nevada and shifted our focus to Mexico.
Nothing could be further from the truth! After making significant
changes to our program in Nevada, I believe we have improved
the odds of making a discovery," stated Rob McEwen, Chairman
and CEO of US Gold.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$95.29
$91.79
(7.15.08)
|
$100.82
|
$144.04
$92.18
|
+6% &
+10%
|
|
Read the article, "Foreign
Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in vol. 5,
issue 7, for more information on why this Australian bank
is the new attraction in the world.
|
|
WisdomTree
NYC, USA
RISK:
HIGH
|
Yes
|
WSDT
|
$2.95
$2.05
(on 9.2.08)
|
$2.05
|
$3.50
$2.02
|
-30%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3, "Money
Grows on WisdomTrees,"
and vol. 5, issue 2, "International
Money Grows on WisdomTrees."
This is a well-managed company that creates "smart"
ETFs, which update holdings regularly, and trade on earnings
instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a former
SEC chairman as one of the senior advisors (high risk investment,
but a lot more credible than most OTCBB companies). Don’t
underestimate this company. CEO Jono Steinberg is married
to Maria Bartiromo and both have strong relationships on Wall
Street, as do Chairman Michael Steinhardt and Senior Investment
Strategy Advisor Professor Jeremy J. Siegel, the famous Wizard
of Wharton. Also, just signed deals with Mellon and Dreyfus
to create ETFs, and recently launched international currency
ETFs, including the first India focused ETF.
The Company
has also expanded its sales and operations functions to rapidly
commercialize into the $3 trillion retirement market, by launching
the WisdomTree 401(k) platform -- the first open-architecture
platform to combine ETFs and no-load mutual funds. Symbols
include: DEM, DRF and DGS.
Just launched
New Zealand and South African currency ETFs on June 26, 2008,
with the symbols BNZ and SZR respectively.
2Q Earnings
report on 7.31.08: revenues increased 15.3% to $6.2 million
in the second quarter from $5.4 million in the first quarter
of 2008. For the quarter, the Company reduced its net loss
17.8% to $7.96 million in the second quarter of 2008, compared
to $9.68 million in the first quarter.
"In
just two years, WisdomTree has become an important player
in the world of indexing and ETFs, launching 48 funds and
gathering $4.9 billion in assets managed against the WisdomTree
Indexes as of the end of July," said WisdomTree CEO Jonathan
Steinberg.
As of
June 30, 2008, WisdomTree had total assets of $40.7 million
which consisted primarily of cash and cash equivalents of
$13.7 million, and investments in U.S. Treasury and agency
debt instruments of $21.8 million. Total liquidity amounted
to $35.5 million. WisdomTree has no debt.
|
|
World
Water & Solar
|
No
|
WWAT
|
$1.06
&
$0.45
(9.2.08)
|
$0.45
|
$2.52
$0.43
|
-58%
|
|
On 3.21.08:
Dr. Frank W. Smith was promoted from COO to Chief Executive
Officer and elected to the Board of Directors of WorldWater
& Solar Technologies Corp. Former CEO Quentin T. Kelly
retires from the CEO position and will continue as non-executive
Chairman of the Board of WorldWater. CFO Larry Crawford resigned
on June 18, 2008 to "spend more time with his family."
8.18.08:
1Q 2008 results: Revenue for the second quarter was $7.6 million,
compared with $2.2 million reported in the second quarter
of 2007. The increase in revenue was driven by the Company’s
project at Denver International Airport and the recently-dedicated
installation at Fresno International Airport. Net loss for
the quarter was $24 million related to a non-cash expense
of $15.5 million for the Quercus Trust conversion (below).
Emcore
sold two million of its Series D preferred stock in WWAT to
the Quercus Trust, a major shareholder of both EMCORE and
WorldWater, at a price equal to $0.654 per share of common
stock on June 30, 2008. The sale includes 200,000 warrants
to purchase at $0.317/share equivalent. Emcore reports proceeds
from the sale at $13.1 million, or 130% Return on Investment.
Read the
article, "Green
Hits the Mainstream," from vol. 4, issue 4, for more
information.
|
Recently
Deleted/2008 Companies featured:
Echelon +20%,
GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson
+10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%,
Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08)
+40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek
(deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was
deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits.
Deleted from
the Hot News list
|
Altair Nanotechnology
RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH
|
Yes
|
ALTI
|
$2.65
$1.73
(on 6.30.08)
|
$2.72
|
$5.45
$1.63
|
+3% &
+57%
|
|
DELETED ON AUGUST 7, 2008. Based
upon a positive income windfall of $1.1 million, with regard
to the 47 battery packs which have been replaced for Phoenix
MotorCars, this earnings report could exceed analyst expectations.
The 47 Phoenix demo Sport Utility Trucks, which are expected
to hit the road by October, could generate up to 4 ZEV credits
per vehicle for Altair, as well (10% of the 40 ZEV credits
issued per vehicle). Read the Article, "Golf
Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, issue 6. Altair
Nanotechnology is the bell of the ball with regard to the
batteries being used in electric cars, like Phoenix Motor
Cars Sports Utility Truck. The company also received a $2.5
million order from the U.S. Navy (on 1.30.08). Shares were
up over 25% in July.
ThinkPanmure analyst Michael Lew,
who rates the company "Buy," said, "We believe the appointment
of (Copeland) as CEO suggests Altair has resolved internal
organizational matters and, importantly, filled the leadership
void at the top — a necessity for any company to move forward,"
he wrote in a note to investors.
|
|
Genentech
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
DNA
|
$67.79
|
$95.25
|
$82.94
$65.35
|
+40%
|
|
DELETED ON 7.31.08. Great
biotech company with a huge pipeline of DNA-based medical
treatments. Could ultimately put chemo out of business. Shares
jumped when Roche offered $89/share to buy the company on
July 25, 2008. At $95 (above the offer) and with 40% gains
in this crazy marketplace, it’s time to take profits.
|
|
LDK Solar
|
No
|
LDK
|
$38.20
$33.67 (8.1.08)
|
$49.23
|
$76.75
$19.64
|
+29% &
+46%
|
|
DELETED on 9.1.08. Read
the article, "Solar
Springs Up Again",
in vol. 5, issue 4. Announced that sales had tripled over
last year 3Q on August 11, 2008: Revenue of $441.7 million,
up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter and up 345.9% year-over-year
from $99.1 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007.
Annualized wafer production capacity reached 880 MW Signed
nine long-term wafer supply agreements year-to-date; Total
wafer shipments increased 60.8% to 191.7 MW during the quarter;
Gross profit margin for the quarter was 25.4%.
September is typically a down month,
so we took profits on 9.2.08. Still love LDK, however!
|
|
Zoltek
|
No
|
ZOLT
|
$24.25
|
$16.97
|
$51.77
$20.14
|
-30%
|
|
DELETED ON 8.15.08. Read
"Clean
Energy
Rolls Out Worldwide,"
in vol. 4, issue 12. Zoltec makes carbon fibers used in wind
turbine blades. RBC Capital Markets analyst Stuart Bush says
that raw materials costs for Zoltek have risen 12-14%. Additionally,
there have been delays in contracts that were expected to
come in. According to the earnings press release of Augsut
11, 2008, "Zoltek experienced a dearth of significant
new contracts from customers in the wind energy field over
the past year, which the Company attributes to concerns among
wind turbine producers regarding the availability and pricing
of the high-performance carbon fibers used in making the longest
and most powerful wind turbine blades." Zsolt Rumy, Zoltek's
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, explained the problem,
saying, ""We are working closely with every one of the
major wind turbine manufacturers to address their concerns
about incorporating carbon fibers in their design and, while
we cannot predict the exact timing, we expect to win new contracts
leading to resumption of Zoltek's rapid sales growth. All
the major wind turbine producers are designing longer blades
and at some length, which may be different for each turbine
company, carbon fiber reinforcement becomes necessary and
economically competitive." According to Rumy, "The fundamentals
of alternative energy generally -- and wind energy in particular
-- are strong and growing, and we expect that growth will
continue for many years to come. This business is not going
away over the next few years. It's only going to get much
bigger," he added.
The 3Q earnings report on August
11, 2008. Zoltek's net sales for the quarter ended June 30,
2008, totaled $45.0 million, compared to $40.3 million in
the third quarter of fiscal 2007, an increase of 11.7%. However,
on a sequential quarter basis, sales in the latest quarter
declined from the $49.6 million of sales reported by Zoltek
in the second quarter of fiscal 2008.
Net income was $2.3 million, down
from $5 million a year ago. Cash on hand is $42 million, down
from $122 million a year ago (largely due to the purchase
of a plant in Guadalajara, Mexico. That plant began producing
test quantities of acrylic fiber precursor raw material in
the 3rd quarter of 2008.
All that and you have the Chairman
and CEO, Zsolt Rumy, still acting as interim CFO, since the
abrupt resignation on May 5, 2008 of former CFO Kevin Schott.
Sounds like a recipe for continued problems.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some
of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the
Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling
Off List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
Apple (deleted from Cooling Off list on 8.1.08)
Big Lots (BIG) (added 9.2.08)
Fannie Mae
Google
LDK Solar (9.2.08)
Recent
Deletions:
American
Superconductor (moved to the Hot List on 8.18.08)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
9.2.08
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Apple Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$156.74
|
$166.27
|
$202.96
$115.44
|
+6%
|
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
The volatility of Apple is a good
example of why you need to take profits early and often this
year. We deleted Apple from the Cooling Off list at $156.74,
after posting great gains on the put option (an option that
makes money when the stock price goes down). If we’d held
on that option would be far less valuable this week… So, why
not put Apple back on the Cooling Off list, now that it is
close to the price that we put it on before? The current run-up
may still be in play. Rest assured that while we love apple
products as much as any techno-phobe, the problems with the
economy, squeeze on the consumer wallet, concerns over Steve
Jobs health (cancer recurrence or flu bug?) and the company’s
history of not reporting pertinent information about Jobs
(they reported his pancreatic cancer after his surgery and
recovery) are, we believe, a potential large drain on the
stock price.
3Q 2008 earnings call on July
21, 2008: The Company posted revenue of $7.46 billion
and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted
share. These results compare to revenue of $5.41 billion and
net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted
share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 34.8 percent,
down from 36.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. Apple shipped
2,496,000 Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter, representing
41 percent unit growth and 43 percent revenue growth over
the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,011,000 iPods during
the quarter, representing 12 percent unit growth and seven
percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly
iPhone(TM) units sold were 717,000 compared to 270,000 in
the year-ago-quarter.
When Apple was added to the Cooling
Off list, the Jan. 17, 2009 put cost ($175 strike price) was
at $20.40. On July 31, 2008, that put was worth $27.50,
a gain of 35%. The markets are volatile, Apple is a beloved
stock with a brand new product and 35% gains are the Holy
Grail in 2008! Don’t expect that we’ll add Apple back to the
Hot List unless the share price gets near the 52-week low
of $111.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$30.28
|
$34.88
$12.40
|
--
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$59.63
|
$108.79
$48.76
|
-9%
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2
for details on CIBC’s appeal. CIBC, like all of the financial
services industry, will continue to see hard times into 2008.
This is a price that might be attractive for your long-term
portfolio. Don’t expect wild gains in the short term with
this company, and there could be more losses before you’ll
see the upside. Again, the price is attractive if you’re looking
at a 7-year plus horizon, not if you’re looking to post great
gains in the next 12 months.
|
|
Citigroup
DIVIDENDS 4.31%!
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
C
|
$26.05
|
$19.00
|
$54.49
$14.01
|
-27%
|
|
Refer to the M&A
Mania article
in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup’s appeal. Citigroup,
like all of the financial services industry, will continue
to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that might be
attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect wild
gains in the short term with this company, and there could
be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again, the price
is attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus horizon,
not if you’re looking to post great gains in the next 12 months.
Earnings report on July 18,
2008 was a net loss for the 2008 second quarter of $2.5
billion. Citigroup is in China with Structured Investment
Accounts for the Chinese consumer that would allow him/her
to invest in equities or currencies, with a principal protection
feature. Just a few years ago, all banks in China were state-owned
enterprises. Citigroup was the first mover in the Chinese
consumer equity marketplace. Purchased AkBank (in Turkey)
on 1.09.07.
Total assets declined by $99 billion
since first quarter 2008; approximately two-thirds from legacy
assets. Headcount reduced by approximately 6,000 in the second
quarter and approximately 11,000 in the first half. Talent
enhanced by strong new hires, according to Citigroup.
Vikram Pandit is the CEO. His background
is investment banking and hedge funds (which could explain
why the world’s billionaires are happy to provide money for
their turnaround). Citi is selling off "Sale of non-strategic
businesses on track; announced CitiCapital, Diners Club International
and CitiStreet transactions." Just launched Green Energy
Community Investment Fund to initially finance up to four
megawatts of solar electricity production this year. Through
this new initiative, solar power systems will be installed
on qualifying commercial and public sector facilities throughout
the U.S., with an emphasis on underserved communities. The
partner, Helio mU, headquartered in Berkeley, CA, provides
solar electricity to commercial, residential and not-for-profit
customers with little or no initial capital outlay through
long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).
Pandit was the President and Chief
Operating Officer of the Institutional Securities and Investment
Banking Group at Morgan Stanley, where he was responsible
for the overall management of the group and focused on the
trading, sales, and infrastructure aspects of the business
(2000–2005). Pandit left Morgan Stanley to start a hedge fund
named Old Lane Partners, which Citigroup purchased in 2007
for $800 million.
|
|
U.S. Global Investors Eastern European
mutual fund
|
No
|
EUROX
|
$9.36
|
$12.48
|
$19.84
$7.67
|
+33%
|
|
Read "Eastern
European’s Renaissance,"
vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add
growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls.
Your international fund should reflect the difference. Did
a 3-for-1 stock split on May 23, 2008.
|
|
eBay
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
eBAY
|
$28.07
|
$24.05
|
$40.73
$23.52
|
-14%
|
|
Like Skype. The growth potential
there is huge… According to the latest earnings report (7.18.08):
Skype continued its robust growth
trajectory, reporting $136 million in revenue for the quarter,
representing 51% year-over-year growth. Skype added nearly
29 million registered users in the quarter, ending the period
with more than 338.2 million registered users around the world.
In addition to growing its user base, Skype is focused on
product strategies to enhance customer engagement. By comparison,
MySpace has only 242 million registered users. It’s probable
that new COO and Motorola veteran, Scott Durchslag, can find
a way to bring more than $136 million (or less than half a
cent per customer) into the company each quarter. President
Josh Silverman co-founded eVite and served as CEO of Shopping.com
before assuming his role as President of SKype. We’ll probably
add eBay back to the Hot News list if there is a down day
in the markets which makes the price more attractive.
Please contribute to our Skype
conversation on the Sharing
Wisdom bulletin board!
|
|
Fannie Mae
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
FNM
|
$11.64
|
$7.17
|
$70.57
$3.53
|
-38%
|
|
Fannie Mae was deleted from the
Cooling Off list on 2.11.08, after posting losses of –50%
and -56% to its share price. So, why keep the company on this
chart? Mainly as a warning to you. First, you should know
what you own in your mutual funds. (Fannie Mae was one of
the most popular holdings, even up until 2007. It has been
a colossal loser and has been on our Cooling Off list since
2002.) Secondly, how low can Fannie Mae go before the government
bails it out and the taxpayers pony up the dough to prop it
up?
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$467.86
|
$465.30
|
$747.24
$412.11
|
Flat
|
|
Google is such a popular stock.
However, it is also sporting a high P/E of 31 at a time when
it posted the first decline in net income since it became
a public entity. This marketplace has allowed the Google price
to fall as low as $412, so don’t be in a hurry to buy back
in. Google is a long-term hold in your portfolio, but for
traders, the volatility of this big company can also be a
chance to make short-term gains –on the both ends of the stick
– as you can see… The put option performed beautifully for
us, sliding from $594 (on May 1, 2008) to $467.86 (by August
1, 2008). With a down-trending market, be careful.
|
|
Intel
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$20.27
|
$22.56
|
$27.99
$16.84
|
+11%
|
|
See "Apple
Chips," article
in vol. 4, issue 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices
in products and price. On 7.15.08, Intel announced 2Q earnings
of: record second-quarter revenue of $9.5 billion, operating
income of $2.3 billion, net income of $1.6 billion. Forward
P/E: 18.90. Next earnings 10.15.08 ish.
Intel’s competitor, Advanced Micro
Devices, announced a net loss of $1.189 billion on July 17,
2008. Former CEO of AMD Hector Ruiz was booted from the company
on the day of the announcement. On Feb. 1, 2007, we warned
that AMD’s strategy of winning the price war by suing Intel
was a losing proposition. I wrote: "There are two things
that matter most in technology - product and price - and Intel
is beating AMD at both right now. In Silicon Valley, the war
isn't won by suits in the court room. It's won by the geeks
in the garage." (Check out the Apple Chips article for
that warning.) It’s important to read these articles for the
companies to avoid as well as the one’s that are poised for
strong performance!
Intel is a great blue chip. However,
the chip business is highly competitive and the business spending
is expected to moderate during the next year. Wait and see
what happens to the share price!
Green: Intel and Google launched
ClimateSaversComputing.org
in 2007, with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption
reduction by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partners
to come on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices
and Microsoft!
|
|
LDK Solar
|
No
|
LDK
|
$49.08
|
$49.08
|
$76.75
$19.64
|
--
|
|
DELETED on 9.1.08. Read
the article, "Solar
Springs Up Again",
in vol. 5, issue 4. Announced that sales had tripled over
last year 3Q on August 11, 2008: Revenue of $441.7 million,
up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter and and up 345.9% year-over-year
from $99.1 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007.
Annualized wafer production capacity reached 880 MW Signed
nine long-term wafer supply agreements year-to-date; Total
wafer shipments increased 60.8% to 191.7 MW during the quarter;
Gross profit margin for the quarter was 25.4%.
September is typically a down month,
so we took profits on 9.2.08. Still love LDK, however!
|
|
MEMC Electronics
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
WFR
|
$76.28
|
$47.02
|
$96.08
$48.88
|
-38%
|
|
MEMC was added to the S&P 500
in August of 2007. Read "Sun
Powers Whole Foods,"
article in vol. 3, issue 10. Silicon is in high demand, and
MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers
accordingly. Volatile marketplace. Great company. With more
silicon manufacturing companies coming online this year and
next (like HOKU Scientific), MEMC’s operating margins (currently
at 33%) could suffer. Look for this to start impacting the
top line and profit margins in the coming quarters.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$27.80
|
$27.10
|
$37.50
$24.87
|
Flat
|
|
Great Blue Chip for your Long Term
Portfolio. Waiting for lowest buy-in point.
|
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$26.38
|
$16.66
|
$41.33
$13.80
|
-37%
|
|
2Q 2008 Earnings: Net revenue
for the second quarter ended June 29, 2008 was $204.5 million,
a 24% increase as compared to $164.3 million for the second
quarter ended July 1, 2007, and a 3% increase as compared
to $198.2 million in the first quarter ended March 30, 2008.
Net income for the second quarter of 2008 computed in accordance
with GAAP was $11.1 million, or $0.31 per diluted share. This
compared to net income of $6.1 million for the second quarter
of 2007 and to net income of $11.2 million in the first quarter
of 2008.
With the crushing impact that the
subprime crisis has had on the American economy (and thus
the consumer’s buying power), I would be wary about Netgear’s
earnings reports in the coming quarters, since so many of
the company’s many products are reliant upon the consumer
electronics industry – the consumer wallet. The CEO’s earnings
estimates for the next quarter is below what the analysts
are expecting. This company has a great CEO, great products,
a low price to earnings ratio and the marketplace for broadband
consumer products worldwide is still growing. Share price
is getting hammered. I don’t think this trend is over yet.
Watch Natalie
Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick
Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO,
won the Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award
(on 6.16.06), NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list
(for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s
Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS
just gave NetGear’s Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The
NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online. It’s a great
product that allows you to connect to Skype and call anyone
worldwide anywhere there is a WiFi signal.
Theoretically. My son tried it
in Europe and I tried it in Costa Rica without success, however.
Perhaps there are still a few bugs and kinks to work out.
Please contribute to our Skype
conversation on the Sharing
Wisdom bulletin board!
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$40.26
|
$39.23
$21.23
|
+12%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Satcon
VERY HIGH RISK
Micro Cap
|
No
|
SATC
|
$2.85
|
$2.15
|
$3.14
$0.98
|
-25%
|
|
Clean Tech. Satcon is a developer
and supplier of power management and system architecture solutions
for the alternative energy and distributed power markets.
Announced earnings on 8.12.08.
Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 increased by
45% to $16.9 million, up from $11.7 million for the second
quarter of fiscal 2007. Net
loss for the second quarter was approximately $8.0 million,
compared with a net loss of $3.7 million for the second quarter
of 2007. Cash and cash equivalents
at June 28, 2008 were $9.8 million, down from $11.7 million
at March 29, 2008.
Company is running on empty and
will have to bring in more capital – likely at an attractive
price to the institutional buyer, which dilutes your shares
and probably even drives down the price. According to President
and CEO Steve Rhoades, SATC is "reorganizing the company’s
business operations, adding seasoned experts to our management
team and capitalizing on our strong product set and industry-leading
intellectual property.
SatCon commercial grade inverters
are an integral part of Google's corporate headquarters in
Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system is the largest
commercial photovoltaic system in the United States. On August
17, 2008, SatCon Technology Corporation announced that the
company is a key member of a team of best-in-class clean energy
industry leaders recently awarded the Solar Energy Grid Integration
Systems (SEGIS) contract by Sandia National Laboratories.
Sandia is a government-owned/contractor operated (GOCO) facility
– a collaboration between Lockheed-Martin and the U.S. Department
of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.
Coverage Initiated by Cantor Fitzgerald
on 8.15.08 : Buy $5. However, with the low cash levels and
the high cash burn, investors would be advised to wait and
see what kind of capital is being brought in and at what price…
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$73.31
|
$91.50
$25.77
|
+58%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, vol.
3, issue 4 and
vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in vol. 4, issue 1. You can watch a Q&A
with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I
did on the Forbes.com
Video Network.
Sohu was selected as the
official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the
Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Don’t get sucked into buying
at high P/Es in a declining world marketplace – even for excellent
companies, like Sohu. Sohu should have a great story through
the Beijing Olympics and the quarter beyond, but thereafter,
the advertising marketplace may wane. Don’t buy high, and
always be poised to take profits when the share price has
rocketed on the news.
|
|
TJ Max
|
No
|
TJX
|
$31.58
|
$36.33
|
$34.93
$25.49
|
+15%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from vol. 5, issue 6. Owners of TJ Max and Marshall’s designer
discount clothing stores.
|
|
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean
RISK: LOW
|
No
|
TREMX
|
$32.88
|
$27.04
|
$40.00
$12.00
|
-18%
|
|
See vol.
4, issue 3 and
vol.
2, issue 8 for
articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls.
Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global
with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU
that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France.
International investing in the right sectors and countries
pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its
category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating
on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund
back in August of 2005!)
|
|
Wisdom Tree Chinese Yuan ETF
|
No
|
CYB
|
$25.54
|
$25.35
|
$25.72
$25.25
|
Flat
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2. This ETF is not available yet.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Hi-Yield
ETF
|
No
|
DEM
|
$53.08
|
$48.74
|
$57.78
$40.91
|
-8%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets ETF
|
No
|
DGS
|
$44.66
|
$37.36
|
$52.71
$37.36
|
-12%
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2. Hold off. Think these holdings may suffer
since so much investment is placed with international shipping
companies. The high cost of oil is predicted to bring factories
local – back home. Shipping companies could suffer from this
trend.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency
ETF
|
No
|
ICN
|
$24.28
|
$24.18
|
$24.79
$24.09
|
Flat
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2.
|
|
Wisdom Tree International ETF
|
No
|
DRF
|
$23.25
|
$20.51
|
$31.49
$19.98
|
-13%
|
|
Read the articles, "International
Investing," and "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from vol. 5, issue 2. Most holdings are in international finance,
including HSBC, Banco Santander, Australia, Argentina, Scotland
and Lloyds of London.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Boston
Properties (BXP) highlighted on 9.2.08
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) added on 9.1.08
Wells Fargo (WFC) added on 8.1.08
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) added on 9.1.08
Recent
Deletions:
Apple (AAPL) removed on 8.1.08
Google (GOOG) removed on 8.1.08
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 9.2.08
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Boston
Properties
|
No
|
BXP
|
$86.91
$104.35
(9.2.08)
|
$104.35
|
$133.02
$79.88
|
+20%
|
|
Get more
information in vol.
4, issue 9 in the
REITs article. Boston Properties looked great prior to 2007.
With a pullback in profits and GDP growth, corporate spending
and hiring should abate. The office building REITs should
begin to come under pressure in 2008, just as they did in
the 2000-2002 recession. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital
spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs
of the business economy, which are the customers of Boston
Properties.
|
|
First Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$278.48
$284.56
|
$260.60
|
$317.00
$74.77
|
-6% &
-8%
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in vol. 5, issue 4.
First Solar uses cadmium telluride
instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy.
This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard
to get at a reasonable price. Thus First Solar’s operating
margins were the highest in the industry – at 31.42%. That
is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing
is heating up and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as
efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for
more details.
2Q 2008 results were announced
on 7.30.08: Quarterly revenues were $267.0 million, up from
$196.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008 and up
from $77.2 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2007. Net
income for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 was $69.7 million
or $0.85 per share on a fully diluted basis, compared to net
income of $46.6 million or $0.57 per share on a fully diluted
basis for the first quarter of fiscal 2008.
It is seasonal for a sales pullback
in the solar industry. First Solar has good strong leadership
and a lot of money, but the shift in the marketplace back
to silicon, which could start occurring any time now, may
be too dramatic to deal with quickly and adeptly. However,
because of the pumping this stock gets by people on TV, it
could take longer for the general public to get the memo.
Don’t purchase any short-term puts on this company. If you
are interested in an option, be sure the window of opportunity
is one year or more.
With a forward PE of 75.75 (on
9.2.08), First Solar is still the most expensive and thus,
the riskiest investment if there is a pullback in the general
marketplace. Suntech has a forward PE of 29, while Sunpower’s
forward PE is 57.50.s
|
|
KB Home
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$21.35
|
$48.67
$15.76
|
-64%
|
|
CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under
pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating
options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates
and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing,"
from vol.
2, issue 5. In
May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout
should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates,
people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. 2Q 2008
earnings were announced on June 27, 2008: Revenues totaled
$639.1 million in the second quarter of 2008, down from $1.41
billion in the second quarter of 2007, largely due to lower
housing revenues. Second-quarter housing revenues of $636.7
million declined from $1.30 billion in the year-earlier quarter,
reflecting a 41% decrease in homes delivered and a 17% decline
in the average selling price. The Company delivered 2,810
homes at an average selling price of $226,600 in the second
quarter of 2008 compared to 4,776 homes delivered in the year-earlier
quarter at an average selling price of $271,600. The Company
reported a net loss of $255.9 million or $3.30 per diluted
share for the quarter ended May 31, 2008.
|
|
Las Vegas
Sands
|
No
|
LVS
|
$46.83
|
$46.83
|
$148.76
$30.56
|
--
|
|
Stay tuned
for the article, "No Viva Las Vegas" in vol. 5,
issue 10 (next month).
|
|
Macerich
|
No
|
MAC
|
$60.02
$74.81
(5.5.08)
|
$63.12
|
$93.40
$55.70
|
+5% &
-16%
|
|
Get more information in vol.
4, issue 9 in
the REITs article.
Is in the process of securing over
a billion in loans, over half of which is to pay down old
loans. Five loans totaling $895 million have closed and the
sixth, which is the Broadway Plaza deal, is expected to close
in September. The closed financings paid off $576 million
in prior loans and generated excess proceeds used to pay down
Macerich's line of credit.
In the earnings report of August
7, 2008, Arthur Coppola president and chief executive officer
of Macerich stated, "In light of the economy, we are pleased
with the continuing strong fundamentals with occupancy levels
near 93%, strong releasing spreads and solid same center growth
in net operating income. In addition, we had a tremendous
amount of financing activity which generated substantial liquidity
and further strengthened our balance sheet. The majority of
our redevelopment effort is on The Oaks and Santa Monica Place,
both of which saw significant progress during the quarter."
The problem is that California’s
jobless rate just hit 7.3% in July and the Oaks and Santa
Monica Place are Southern California retail malls.
Total funds from operations ("FFO")
diluted of $103.2 million or $1.16 per diluted share, up 11.5%
compared to $1.04 per diluted share for the quarter ended
June 30, 2007.
|
|
Mentor Corporation
|
No
|
MNT
|
$28.68
|
$24.47
|
$48.80
$23.95
|
-15%
|
|
See the article "Beauty
is Only Skin Deep" in the May 2008 ezine, vol.
5, issue 5, when we warned that breast implant sales tend
to droop during recessions. The January 2010 put with a $20.00
strike price traded at $2.00 per (or $200 per lot) on 6.30.08.
2Q results: Total net sales were $105.5 million in the first
quarter of fiscal year 2009, an increase of 10% over net sales
of $95.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008.
The increase in net sales is primarily attributable to international
sales growth, including $6.2 million of Perouse Plastie (Perouse)
sales. Perouse was acquired by Mentor in July 2007. Total
net sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009 included
positive foreign currency exchange effects of approximately
$1.6 million.
Total net sales were $105.5 million
in the first quarter of fiscal year 2009, an increase of 10%
over net sales of $95.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal
year 2008. The increase in net sales is primarily attributable
to international sales growth, including $6.2 million of Perouse
Plastie (Perouse) sales and positive foreign currency effects
of $1.6 million. Net
income was $15 million, down 32% from $22 million a year ago.
|
|
Medicis
|
No
|
MRX
|
$20.30
$23.62 (6.1.08)
|
$21.45
|
$34.35
$18.51
|
+6% &
-9%
|
|
See the article "Beauty
is Only Skin Deep" in the May 2008 ezine, vol.
5, issue 5, when we warned that elective cosmetic surgery
procedures tend to wane during recessions. Medicis has other
new costs to contend with and a delay in their Botox®
type product, which hasn’t yet been cleared by the FDA.
2Q results announced on 8.5.08
after the markets close. Revenue was $132.5 million, compared
to approximately $108.9 million for the three months ended
June 30, 2007, representing an increase of approximately 22%.
GAAP net income for the three months ended June 30, 2008,
was approximately $10.0 million, or approximately $0.17 per
diluted share, compared to GAAP net income of $15.5 million,
or $0.24 per diluted share, for the three months ended June
30, 2007. This decrease is due to the $25 million payment
to Ipsen for the RELOXIN(R) BLA acceptance by FDA.
|
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$24.81
|
$27.72
$15.49
|
-34%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from vol.
2, issue 5 in
2005, when we first reported on REITs as a burned out sector.
There is a pending securities action complaint (but not a
confirmed investigation), from June 2007, alleging that Toll
Brothers "and one or more members of its senior management,
violated federal securities laws by issuing various materially
false and misleading statements that had the effect of artificially
inflating the market price of the Company's securities and
causing Class members to overpay for the securities."
According to the annual earnings report filed in Dec. 2007,
net income had dropped to just $36 million, from $687 million
in 2006. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll
said, "By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging
of the 40 years that Toll Brothers has been in business. 1974
was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one
year."
|
|
Wells
Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$27.00
$31.21
(9.2.08)
|
$31.21
|
$37.99
$24.38
|
+16%
|
|
See Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings
in vol, 5, issue 9, and Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression,
in vol. 4, issue 12. 2Q earnings report Net income of $1.8
billion compared with $2.3 billion a year ago. Record revenue
of $11.5 billion, up 16 percent from prior year and 34 percent
(annualized) from prior quarter. Analysts keep telling us,
however, that the real estate problems are not over and that
underlying profits are eroding, most particularly in the financial
sector. This is a story that continues to perplex – how Wells
Fargo can generate such strong earnings when it was heavily
invested in home mortgages as a revenue stream in the past.
They say it is through credit card fees and non-interest revenue.
The concern is that the increase in revenue in these two line
items could be price gouging on customers (overdraft fees
and high interest rates) who are overdrawn on their accounts
and behind on their mortgages.
Wells
did have a heavy concentration of loans in some of the worst
areas of California, Arizona and Florida, and currently has
$11.9 billion in what they are calling their "liquidating
portfolio." Additionally, there were a lot of interest-only
loans (20% of the total outstanding loans). The liquidating
portfolio loans had a foreclosure rate of almost 5% as of
December 31, 2007. Over $6 billion in loans were past due
90 days as of December 31, 2007. These stats are included
in the fine print, but not the press release, of the earnings
statements.
Foreclosed
assets were $1.18 billion at December 31, 2007, compared with
$745 million at December 31, 2006. Plus Wells has SIV and
CDO exposure in their mutual fund money markets. They have
already promised a bail-out of over $100 million and more
may be needed.
The seesaw
between $37 and $20 share price is an opportunity for a sophisticated
options trader to earn great returns. Since there seem to
be more potential for a big negative surprise from Wells than
a big positive surprise, I’d consider buying a put at the
high as a safer bet than expecting the price to continue to
rise.
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
|
$95.24
|
$176.14
$69.27
|
--
|
|
Stay tuned
for the article, "No Viva Las Vegas" in vol. 5,
issue 10 (next month).
|
Recently
Deleted in 2008:
Fannie Mae was
deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price
value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both
puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on
6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was
deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo
was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted
on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on
8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains.
|
Company
|
Natalie Owns?
|
Symbol
|
Rate when listed
|
Rate when closed
|
52-week high
52-week low
|
Losses
|
|
Apple Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$184.73
|
$156.74
|
$202.96
$100.01
|
-15% (PUT gained 35%)
|
|
See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue
2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
3Q 2008 earnings call on July 21, 2008: The Company
posted revenue of $7.46 billion and net quarterly profit of
$1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted share. These results compare
to revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818
million, or $.92 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.
Gross margin was 34.8 percent, down from 36.9 percent in the
year-ago quarter. Apple shipped 2,496,000 Macintosh(R) computers
during the quarter, representing 41 percent unit growth and
43 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company
sold 11,011,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 12
percent unit growth and seven percent revenue growth over
the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone(TM) units sold were
717,000 compared to 270,000 in the year-ago-quarter.
With a weaker dollar, high gas,
record food costs and more hard hits on the American wallet,
more people may be tempted to take the easy way out with
regard to music and movies – illegal downloads, which are
still a huge problem in the industry. When Apple was added
to the Cooling Off list, the Jan. 17, 2009 put cost ($175
strike price) was at $20.40. On July 31, 2008, that
put was worth $27.50, a gain of 35%. The markets are volatile,
Apple is a beloved stock with a brand new product and 35%
gains are the Holy Grail in 2008! However, because the U.S.
consumer’s wallet is under attack, as well as the U.S. stock
market, don’t expect that we’ll add Apple back to the Hot
List unless the share price gets near the 52-week low of $111.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$594.90
|
$467.86
|
$747.24
$412.11
|
-21% (Put increased more than 50%)
|
|
Google earnings: Google reported
revenues of $5.37 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2008,
an increase of 39% compared to the second quarter of 2007
and an increase of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2008.
GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2008 was $1.25 billion
as compared to $1.31 billion in the first quarter of 2008.
Google is such a popular stock.
However, it is also sporting a high P/E of 31 at a time when
it posted the first decline in net income since it became
a public entity. This marketplace has allowed the Google price
to fall as low as $412, so don’t be in a hurry to buy back
in. Google is a long-term hold in your portfolio, but for
traders, the volatility of this big company can also be a
chance to make short term gains –on the short end of the stick
– as you can see… This put performed beautifully.
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$33.18
|
$23.75
|
$37.99
$24.38
|
-28% (83% gains on the put)
|
|
See Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression, in vol. 4, issue 12. 1Q
earnings report was issued on 4.16.08: WFC recorded revenue
of $10.6 billion, up 12 percent from prior year, up 14 percent
(annualized) from prior quarter. Analysts keep telling us,
however, that the real estate problems are not over and that
underlying profits are eroding, most particularly in the financial
sector. This is a story that continues to perplex – how Wells
Fargo can generate such strong earnings when it was heavily
invested in subprimes as a revenue stream in the past. The
Wells Fargo January 2009 put with a strike price of $22.50
was priced at $1.50 on 3.24.08. On 6.30.08, it was trading
for $2.75, for a gain of 83%! Then the WFC price popped
back up. The seesaw between $32 and $26 share price is an
opportunity for a sophisticated options trader to earn great
returns. Taking profits before the earnings report gets released.
Think the company is still going to try and look strong for
the marketplace. Not sure how much meat is behind these positive
earnings that Wells keeps reporting, but July 17th
could be the chance to buy another put, if they manage to
have good news yet again.
|
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect
a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance
of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk
tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of
your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should
never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com
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Don’t
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Agape
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September
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4
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and visioning through music, dance and spoken word ministries.
Mid-Month
Update: Hot News on Cool Stocks
Monday, September 15th, 2008
Federal
Open Market Committee Meeting
Tuesday,
September 16th, 2008
The
Feds meet for one-day to determine whether or not to increase, pause
or lower the Fed funds rate. How are the Back to School stock sales
looking?
Hail
to the Chiefs Reception, Washington, DC
Wednesday,
September 17th, 2008
6:00PM
through 8:00PM
Join the
Women's Campaign Forum in honoring the women Chiefs of Staff who
serve our Senators and Representatives in Washington DC.
Get
Rich and EnRich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
Tuesday,
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AltCar
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September 26th, 2008
Electric,
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T.
Harv Eker's Extreme Wealth School: Las Vegas!
Thursday,
October 2nd, 2008
Money
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Hmmm... |
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|
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