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Vol.5 Issue 9 September 1st, 2008
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Month:
"It won’t happen immediately, but the technology finally exists to power our vehicles with a renewable fuel that can be made from multiple domestic sources including wind and sunshine while also allowing us to finally give the Middle East the lack of attention it deserves.”

Paul Woods,
President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Odyssey Advisors.


High Gas Prices Got You Floored?

by Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC

The Light at the End of the Tunnel: Hybrids Take the Next Step.

Tesla Roadster. 100% electric. 0 to 60 in 3.9 seconds. 256 mpg equivalent. Less than 2 cents per mile.

With gasoline now over $4 per gallon in many states and oil prices continuing to rise, the question on the minds of most consumers is how long they will have to spend an increasing share of their income on energy in general and gasoline in particular. Our reliance on a 19th century technology (the internal combustion engine) and a single fuel for our transportation needs has brought us to a point where there don’t appear to be any good choices. However, looks can be deceiving. There is a light at the end of the tunnel. Although we’re still a few years away, a solution now exists that can eliminate our dependence on foreign oil while bringing driving costs down significantly.

Converting Electricity to Fuel
The problem with clean energy sources like wind and solar has always been that they can only be used to produce electricity. Until recently, covering the U.S. with wind turbines and solar panels would do little to impact the demand for oil. Oil and the fuels produced from it used to be the only practical way of powering vehicles. However, aging petroleum reserves around the world and the lack of major new discoveries have made it increasingly difficult for oil production to keep up with demand. Combine this with the additional problems of unstable sources of supply and concerns over climate change, and it’s becoming increasingly apparent the only realistic solution to these problems is to find another vehicle fuel.

Of the fuels under consideration, electricity appears to be the best alternative. The infrastructure for electricity is already in place and all we need is available from a wide variety of domestic sources. It is also the only fuel that consumers can produce themselves. Other fuels under consideration including hydrogen and ethanol have numerous problems including the lack of infrastructure and a price that will always be too high. When used to power a vehicle, driving costs of a few cents per mile will eventually make it impossible for other alternatives, including gasoline, to compete.

Hybrids – the First Step
One of the most important things hybrids have done is take the first step toward using electricity as a power source. Once a driver takes their foot off the gas, a hybrid is powered by electricity. In addition, regenerative braking is used to capture the energy used in braking to recharge the battery. By combining two power sources, hybrids offer better performance and more horsepower while also increasing fuel savings significantly. In addition to better gas mileage, hybrids have more horsepower and are more fun to drive than the original. Marketing these should be a slam-dunk.

So Why Aren’t Hybrids More Popular?
Toyota currently has the state of the-art hybrid technology and this has been licensed to several other automakers. However, their marketing department appears to have a major brain cramp when it comes to selling these. By mostly selling hybrid versions of existing vehicles with too big a differential in price, consumers can see immediately that it will take longer than most plan to own the hybrid to recover the difference in price from fuel savings. By creating this comparison, Toyota and the other hybrid manufacturers produced a huge reason not to buy a hybrid.

As mentioned previously, hybrids have more horsepower than the original because they combine an electric motor with a combustion engine. However, the environmental movement appears determined to make Americans drive ugly little underpowered cars and they seem to go into a hissy fit when auto companies try to appeal to the mass market by producing faster cars that are more fun to drive. Because of this, the one thing that might have made consumers more willing to pay the price differential wasn’t mentioned. The result is a technology that should be taking the auto industry by storm accounts for only 3-4% of the market. To reinforce this point, it’s worth noting the Prius is the only one without a non-hybrid version, and this has become their most popular hybrid.

However, rising gas prices appear to be overcoming poor marketing, and hybrid sales are picking up. Fortunately, more auto companies are ramping up to produce hybrids and the premium may decline to $2,000 in a few years. The companies likely to be the most successful will probably be the ones that create distinct hybrids instead of trying to revamp existing models.

Better Batteries to the Rescue
To date, the battery material used in hybrids has been nickel. While this is a slight improvement over the old lead batteries, these still have poor energy density, which adds too much weight to a vehicle. For perspective, 100 pounds of lead turned into a battery will produce enough power to drive a vehicle 10 miles while the same weight in nickel will increase the range to 15 miles. However, 100 pounds of lithium produces a range of 40 miles.

Because of this, lithium has become the material of choice for smaller applications including computers and cell phones. However, beginning in 2008, the world’s major battery makers are ramping up to mass produce large format lithium batteries for vehicles. By replacing nickel batteries with lithium batteries the same size, the combination of more energy density and less weight make it possible to dramatically increase the range of a vehicle powered by electricity and significantly reduce the demand for gasoline.

After Market Conversions
Even though the technology exists right now to produce a plug-in hybrid, 2010 appears to be the earliest that major automakers will bring one of these to the market. The good news is that consumers don’t have to wait. Companies are currently lining up to do after market conversions. Most are starting with the Prius because there are more of those on the road, but conversions are expected to be available for other hybrids within the next year. Current conversions are relatively expensive, priced at around $10k or more. However, with large format lithium batteries going into mass production, the price is expected to drop by 75% or more in the next few years.

A Modest Proposal
With private companies now doing what Toyota claims isn’t possible yet, the world’s largest automaker is probably a tad embarrassed. Their reaction has been to raise safety issues about lithium batteries that have been long since resolved and threaten to void the warranty on any conversions. However, this shouldn’t necessarily cause hybrid owners to wait until the warranty has expired before converting. The decision will be based on balancing the expected fuel savings against having to pay for parts no longer covered by the warranty. In this case, a vehicle that has historically needed the fewest repairs would be the best candidate for a conversion.

For those considering the purchase of a hybrid right now, here’s a modest proposal. Dealers are currently charging a premium because of strong demand, so why not buy a used one, take the savings, and spend it on an after market conversion to a plug-in? Your range should be around 50 miles before having to use a drop of gasoline. With the first plug-in coming to market from Fisker Automotive in 2009 and priced at $80K, this might be the best way to get one for a reasonable price without having to wait.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NTPS), Volpe National Transportation System Center, Cambridge, MA 1991

If you think driving 50 miles without using gasoline isn’t a big deal, think again. It’s huge. The graph above shows that approximately 80% of Americans drive 50 miles per day or less. Voila, this is the light at the end of the tunnel. Imagine going from the current situation to telling the loosely wrapped collection of despots that control world petroleum reserves to put their oil where the sun doesn’t shine.

It won’t happen immediately, but the technology finally exists to power our vehicles with a renewable fuel that can be made from multiple domestic sources including wind and sunshine. Even better, it will reduce driving costs dramatically and finally allow us to give the Middle East the lack of attention it deserves.

ABOUT PAUL WOODS
Paul is the President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Odyssey Advisors. He has over 35 years of experience in the investment management and research analysis of common stocks. He manages the Odyssey Clean Energy Portfolio, which produced a return of 141.9% before fees in 2007. Paul has done a great deal of independent research on clean energy and has written multiple articles on various segments of this industry. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

NataliePace.com Note: Please note that the returns and statistics regarding the Odyssey Clean Energy portfolio were provided by Odyssey Advisors. Since Odyssey is not followed by an independent tracking firm, such as Hulbert's Financial Digest, the results which the company provided have not been verified with an independent source.


Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings Reports.

by Natalie Pace. Includes a Bank Stock Report Card.

Photo of Natalie Pace by: Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008.
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079.

Indymac, once one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on July 11, 2008. IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. was the fifth FDIC-insured failure of the year, according to the FDIC press release issued on July 11, 2008. The seizure came after panicked customers withdrew more than $1.3 billion of deposits over 11 business days.

Morgan Stanley offered $2/share for Bear Stearns in March 2008, before upping the offer to $10/share in April after several lawsuits by the Police and Fire Retirement System of the City of Detroit and the Wayne County Employees' Retirement System and other shareholders were filed. Earlier in 2007, before two major Bear Stearns billion-dollar hedge funds that were heavily invested in the subprime mortgage loans collapsed, Bear Stearns share price had traded as high as $133.

Countrywide Financial, formerly the nation’s largest mortgage company, was bought on the cheap by the Bank of America in July 2008 without any cash – in a stock swap. Countrywide had a market value of $25 billion in May of 2007. On July 1, 2008, Countrywide shareholders received 0.1822% of a share of Bank of America stock in exchange for each share of Countrywide, for a total purchase value of less than $3 billion.

It’s easy to see that subprime loans are largely responsible for the colossal mess that our nation’s financial corporations are experiencing. So, how is it that the bank that was the largest subprime lender in 2006, according to the Milken Institute, is the only financial institution in the U.S. reporting record earnings?

It just doesn’t add up
According to the Milken Institute, Wells Fargo was the top subprime lender in 2006, with $83.2 billion of subprime loans and 13% of the marketplace.

Top Subprime Lenders in 2006

Rank

Leader

Billions

Market Share

1

Wells Fargo

$83.2 billion

13%

2

HSBC

$52.8 billion

8.3%

3

New Century

$51.6 billion

8.1%

4

Countrywide Financial

$40.6

6.3%

5

CitiMortgage

$38

5.9%

6

WMC Mortgage

$33.2

5.2%

7

Fremont Mortgage

$32.3

5%

8

Ameriquest

$29.5

4.6%

9

Option One

$28.8

4.5%

10

First Franklin

$27.7

4.3%

Source: © MilkenInstitute.org. Inside B&C lending and Credit Suisse source data

As you can see below, Wells Fargo is highly concentrated in three out of four of the areas most severely hit by the housing downturn, including Arizona, California and Nevada. According to Realtytrac.com, in a press release issued on August 14, 2008, Nevada topped the United States in foreclosures per households, with one for every 106 households and over 10,000 properties in foreclosure. California, Florida and Arizona posted the second, third and fourth most foreclosures, respectively. (California had the MOST foreclosures in July, with 72,285 foreclosure filings.) With one in every 85 households receiving a foreclosure filing, the Las Vegas metro area’s foreclosure rate ranked No. 5 in the nation, behind Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla, Merced, Stockton and Modesto, California, respectively.

The Source of the Housing Problem:
Of the 80 million homeowners in the U.S., nine million people, or 11% of the homeowners, have a mortgage that is higher than the value of their home. Five million, or 6.25% of the U.S. homeowners, are behind on their payments and two million (2.5%) are in the foreclosure process. 25 million homeowners in the U.S. own their homes free and clear – without mortgages (31% of homeowners), and 50 million (63%) are paying on time (Source: U.S. Treasury Department). It’s important to realize that we are not entering the Great Depression, while at the same time acknowledging that the housing crunch is not yet over.

Now, analysts have said that Wells did a great job of selling their riskiest loans off quickly, however, Wells Fargo admits that they still hold $11.9 billion in loans in their own "liquidating portfolio" of a total $84.2 billion Home Equity loans outstanding as of December 31, 2007. Not surprisingly, the liquidating loans are, according to the Wells Fargo annual report, "largely concentrated in geographic markets that have experienced the most abrupt and steepest declines in housing prices."

The foreclosure rate in this "worst of" portfolio is 4.8%, almost double the national average of 2.5%. In addition to the $11.9 billion loans in the Wells Fargo "liquidating portfolio," 20% of their current loans, or at least $16.8 billion and possibly more, are "interest only" loans. Many of those loans are based in the bubble states of Arizona, Florida, Nevada and California, where homeowners are underwater on their mortgage and unable to refinance. While Wells Fargo claims that these homeowners are near prime or prime customers, the alarmingly high foreclosure rates indicate that many were using their equity as an ATM machine.

So, while Wells Fargo’s claimed, on their July 17, 2008 2nd quarter 2008 earnings report, that they have "record revenue" (while others are imploding), the statements issued in their press releases are indeed misleading.

Rather than having "negligible exposure to many of the problem areas that resulted in significant costs and write-downs at other large financial institutions," which is what Wells Fargo claimed in their February annual report, the bank has a lot of exposure to risky loans that have yet to hit headline news. These risky loans include the $11.9 billion "liquidating portfolio" and the $16.8 billion dollar "interest only" portfolio, but that’s not the only problem area of the earnings report.

While Wells Fargo does have a "diversified" franchise, the area with the greatest growth this year, at 22%, was double-digit increases in debit and credit card fees. Yet many of these fees are overdraft fees that are levied on the bank’s most distressed homeowners and banking clients – as many Wells Fargo clients have reported. Wells Fargo’s "record earnings" could essentially be pushing their most vulnerable clients over the edge. (Even cigarette companies know how to kill their customers slowly.)

In that scenario, explosive earnings growth this quarter is simply a delayed write-off in an upcoming quarter. While you might think that there are a lot of "if’s" in that scenario, Wells experienced a 19% increase in net charge-offs in their unsecured credit cards and lines of credit in 2007 (over 2006), to $1.02 billion from $857 million, due in part to "increased economic stress in households" (in Wells Fargo’s own words). It is a risky strategy to switch from a revenue emphasis of being the top mortgage banker in 2006 to being the top credit and debit fee banker in 2008. As we can see in Wells Fargo’s own accounting, that revenue stream is extremely vulnerable to inflation and hard times.

Total Non Performing Assets at Wells Fargo were $3.87 billion as of December 31, 2007, up 60% from last year’s $2.42 billion. Additionally, due to illiquid market conditions, Wells Fargo is holding more foreclosed properties this year. Foreclosed assets were $1.18 billion at December 31, 2007, up 58% over last year’s $745 million. With foreclosures in California continuing to hit record highs, we can expect more pressure on the bank.

Wells Fargo Financial reported a net loss of $38 million in the second quarter 2008 compared with net income of $156 million the year prior. The bank has exposure to at least $1.6 billion investment in eight Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs were subprime funds) held in their money market mutual funds. "On February 2008, [in order] to maintain an investment rating of AAA for certain non-government money market mutual funds, [Wells Fargo] elected to enter into a capital support agreement for up to $130 million related to one SIV held by those funds," according to the second quarter 2008 earnings report. While the company maintains that they are not required to bail out these money market funds, they did state that they may "elect" to help out more in the coming months. (If you have a Wells Fargo brokerage account with holdings in their money markets, you may want to reconsider your strategy.)

Almost a billion -- $960 million in Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs -- was moved off of the Wells Fargo books into "special-purpose entities" that are currently holding $5.8 billion in total assets, according to the annual report, which was released on February 29, 2008. "These special-purpose entities were predominantly formed to invest in affordable housing and sustainable energy projects and to securitize corporate debt," according to the Wells Fargo earnings report. While this is legal, this is the sort of financial maneuvering that precipitated the downfall at some of our nation’s most infamous corporate bankruptcies in 2002 and 2003.

83 million shares were repurchased by Wells Fargo, at a rate of $31.49 to $33.83, in October, November and December 2007. (Yes, this helps to stabilize the share price; the share price in 2008 rarely lifted to above $30.) During the first half of 2008, Wells Fargo repurchased another 17 million shares -- all from employee benefit plans. The company also increased the dividend to $.34 from $.31.

Share repurchases and dividend increases are widely considered to be votes of confidence by the Board of Directors, however, savvy board directors use these Trojan Horse tactics in tough times as a way to lure in shareholder dollars to increase their market value to make it easier to secure debt on better terms, and indeed Wells Fargo has been shoring up capital aggressively this year. Again, these are all smart, savvy financial tactics that can buy time and conceivably enough time to get through the worst of the market crunch.

Wells Fargo’s has been dressing up its financial sheets and buying time at the top of the financial industry on Wall Street by 1) working with distressed and seriously delinquent home owners to keep them from foreclosing, 2) moving its riskiest loans off its books, 3) shoring up its own share price with stock buybacks, 4) accumulating capital, 5) pouring money into its own leaky, SIV-backed money market mutual funds, and 6) maintaining a high credit rating (through the afore-mentioned accounting tricks and payoffs) in order to look like the beauty queen in the current financial industry pig sty, in the hopes that they can keep dancing a few steps in front of the fire sale that has been consuming their competitors.

Even as another bank fails -- Integrity Bank of Alpharetta, GA was closed on August 29, 2008 -- Wells Fargo may succeed in skating over the troubled waters with slippery earnings reports. The company may stave off investor panic long enough for the financial markets to recover and for them to develop a more sound revenue strategy going forward.

But these tactics carry a much higher risk than most investors are aware of. And the rah-rah speeches by Wells Fargo executives (which were much more tempered this month than they were in February and May) have not been forthcoming about the seriousness or the depth of these concerns (even though the fine print details can be dug up in their complicated earnings reports).

The FDIC has established four risk categories, with 2007 assessment rates ranging from a minimum of 5 cents per $100 of domestic deposits for well managed, well capitalized banks with the highest credit ratings, to 43 cents for institutions posing the most risk to the Depositor’s Insurance Fund. Even just a few ticks down into a lower risk category could double (or more) the assessment rates for the only bank that Wall Street is still enamored with – Wells Fargo.

That is why Wells Fargo has been on (and off) my Cooling Off list off since December of 2007 (and has been one of the top performers on that list). At a share price of $30.27 on August 29, 2008, Wells Fargo is one of the companies highlighted on the Cooling Off list this month, as poised (again) for a potential fall in share price value.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I own put options on Wells Fargo (and I’m a customer as well).

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


Best of Las Vegas: the Most Interesting City in the World.

by NataliePace.com Staff.

Dome of the Sea by Cherry Capri. Acrylic with prismacolor and glitter on Panel $1500

This BEST OF list is actually not just the best of Las Vegas. In many ways, it is the best of the world list. Vegas now sports more Michelin rankings (the most prestigious awards for chefs and restaurants) than Los Angeles. The spas have some of the finest aestheticians and massage therapists. At Wynn, you can lunch by a waterfall, swim in the longest lap pool ever built, view world class art, play a round of golf and never once hear the annoying din of slot machines. So, if you like a little risqué behavior with your R&R, or a little poker with your fine dining, or a little kitsch with your quiche, Vegas pretty much has everything for everyone these days. (Even my conservative, religious friends have found things to do in Sin City that won’t get them kicked out of heaven!)


ROOMS:
Best Hotel for the Business Traveler:
Trump Tower is the best choice for the business traveler who wants a great night’s sleep, the finest, personalized attention just off the Strip and to be in a hotel where you don’t have to walk two miles to find your elevator. No slots, poker tables or showgirls to distract you from the job (but close enough to get to any of these in a few minutes). Part of the reason Trump ranks at the top of our list for the business traveler is that the hotel boasts:

Fluffiest Bed: Trump Tower. There are beds that seem to wrap themselves around you like a soul-mate lover. Ivanka must have personally designed this.

Best Staff and Service: Trump Tower. Catch a ride all over town from the Bell Staff, or get your latte made to perfection at the café, or use the attaché service for anything you might desire 24/7. Well, almost anything… Vegas does have a few rules…

Best Hotel: Wynn Hotel has some of the finest rooms I’ve ever seen. The floor to ceiling windows offer a spectacular view of the Strip. The room is more spacious than any room on the Strip, and every little detail seems to have been attended to as well. The mirrors are all skinny mirrors (awesome!). There is a seat in the shower, which is great for leg shaving and other recreational activities. The lighting beauties any woman over 20. There is a flat screen TV. And if ever you feel a need to step outside of the room, you have great dining choices, a spa and the longest lap pool in the world.

Things to do at Wynn Hotel: Dine outside along the Lake of Dreams at Daniel Boulud’s Brasserie.

Things to avoid: The Ferrari dealership. Why should you pay to look at cars? Please don’t encourage this kind of craziness. Come to Beverly Hills and we’ll let you gape at stars and fancy cars for free.

Best Room with a View: Bellagio. I’ve seen the dancing water fountain at Bellagio from so many different angles – from Mon Ami Gabi across the street (a good restaurant you may wish to try), from the street itself and now, from a tower suite in the Salon section of the hotel. The top floors at all of these world-class hotels – Wynn, THEhotel, Mandalay Bay, Bellagio – have spectacular views of the Strip, but Bellagio’s is just that much more special because of the fountains. You can turn on the music in the room and there is something timeless, intimate, aesthetically appealing and even important about experiencing the beauty and artistry of the dancing water fountain. It’s soooo appealing that you might have to split your time between Wynn and Bellagio (unless you’re a business traveler jumping in and out of town, in which case, Trump Tower is probably a better choice).

Best View of the Strip and Best Hotel for College Students: The Palms Hotel is located off the Strip, and, because of that, has the best view of the Strip’s hotels. Pick any one of the bars, from the Playboy Club to the Ghost Bar or Moon to experience this fantastic view, but bear in mind that this is really a young singles paradise. If you’re under 29 and single, this is hands down the best place to stay and play! Great clubs, awesome view, loud music, too much alcohol. Vegas at its wicked best.

SPAS:
Best Massage:
Cupping massage at the Canyon Ranch and Watsu massage at Bellagio.

Best Facial: The Canyon Ranch Spa at Palazzo and the Venetian is truly an oasis of pampering and pleasure. The massage therapists and aestheticians were at the top of their professions. I came out of my facial looking younger and came out of my massage feeling vitalized and toxin-free.

Imagine a convention where the girls are pampered, the men are challenged and entertained, and everyone meets up at night for a world-class dinner. That’s the kind of conference, or bachelor/bachelorette party that you can create in Vegas these days, baby!

Watsu Massage at Bellagio: This is the strangest, new craze in massage, where you get in a saline tub and someone swirls you around for an hour, but man, oh, man, does it work! It’s a massage that focuses on deep relaxation, circulation and, believe it or not, intestinal health. You’ll have more fluids and solids moving through you after this massage than if you’d had a gallon of green tea and an overdose of ExLax. And yet, while the massage is occurring, you’ll be more likely to fall asleep than to feel any discomfort. By gently floating and stretching in a warm pool, you will become deeply relaxed, strengthening your mind/body connection.

Best BathHouse: THEbathhouse at THEhotel. The Black Moore Mud Bath is designed to purify your body of free radical build up. Ok. Whatever that means. Forget about the name or the description of the health benefits. After this bath, you’ll feel like a goddess walking on the clouds. I’ve felt like that less than a handful of times in my life and never without a partner. Until this crazy Jacuzzi mud bath. This is something everyone should get to experience at least once in his/her life. Just do it. Don’t expect to be in the mood to do anything after, except maybe a massage, or "dot dot dot"…

DINING:
Best Dessert with a View:
MIX at THEhotel. There is really only one other reason to go the THEhotel, and that is to head straight up to the top of the hotel for its dessert with a view at MIX. You’ll feel like you’re stepping into a set of Laugh In, with Mix’s dramatic and zany décor. The view, 400 feet atop the Vegas skyline, is eye-popping (and would be the best view in Vegas if Palms weren’t around).

The restaurant brags that their dishes are created by the famed chef, Alain Ducasse, however, when I dined there, it was clear that Monsieur Ducasse hasn’t overseen the preparation for awhile (or the B-team was on duty during the summer). My date and I quite liked the gnocchi, but were underimpressed with the all of the other offerings on the chef’s tasting menu – until dessert arrived.

Pre-dessert started with the most sensual tasting pina colada you’ll ever experience, topped with warm coconut milk foam. Whether we were swooning over freshly baked Madelines dipped in house-made Nutella or wondering how pastry chef Gregory Gourreau can transform a few ladyfingers into such a complex taste orgasm, there wasn’t a dessert that Mix delivered (and we sampled five) that we didn’t delight in. Monsieur Gourreau est Le Roi de patisserie!

Best Breakfast with a View: Jean-Philippe at Bellagio. People come to see the World’s Largest Chocolate Fountain, but you’re crazy if you don’t stay to sample one of chef Jean-Philippe Maury’s breakfast (or dessert) crepes or some of the dozens of other breakfast pastries, sandwiches, chocolates, cakes or tarts. From blueberry brioche to ham and cheese crepes to quiche Lorraine and great espresso drinks, there wasn’t a morning when the first thought of the day wasn’t – Jean-Philippe! And while you wait in line to order, you have the added pleasure of circling around the cakes, tarts, chocolates and other delicacies that you’ll want to treat yourself to in the afternoon.

Best Restaurant: Joel Robuchon at MGM Grand Hotel Las Vegas. Michelin has given its highest rating, three stars, to only 57 restaurants worldwide. There are none in Los Angeles. There is only one in Las Vegas -- Joel Robuchon. According to Michelin, "One always eats extremely well here, often superbly. Distinctive dishes are precisely executed, using superlative ingredients." Monsieur Robuchon has been named the "Chef of the Century" and his French cuisine is the rave of the world now. The 6-course tasting menu averages $250/person and the 16-course menu is $385/person.

Consistently Great Dining at a more reasonable price: Emeril’s at MGM Grand Hotel Las Vegas. Emeril’s Cajun food is simply a delight. There is nothing on the menu that isn’t fresh, flavorful, prepared to perfection and worth sampling. I’ve been going to this restaurant for over a decade now and have never been disappointed! With the funky New Orleans architecture, and Emeril’s Creole/Cajun creations, you'll feel closer to Bourbon Street than the Vegas Strip.

Best Late Night/Late Morning Hang out: The Peppermill is the hippest uncool hangout you’ll ever experience. It’s like night at the Peppermill fireside lounge 24/7, and day (all night long) at the 24-hour restaurant. So, whether you need to continue the night (in the early morning hours) or start the day late (in the mid-afternoon), the Peppermill is there for every need you might desire at the wrong hour. Whether it is an early morning Bloody Mary or a late night pancake, it will taste great and the ambience will be the right lighting (since you have both to choose from).

 

 

 

POKER:
Best hotel for experienced poker players:
Bellagio features 40 tables, two high-limit areas and "Bobby’s Room," an exclusive two-table private, but peek-a-boo area, where VIP, well-known poker players plunk down a $20,000 minimum buy-in to match their wits. Just having players seated in the room lifts the adrenalin in the entire Poker Room with a palpable energy that sparks high performance and competition from everyone – even though the identity of the stars are largely obscured by translucent glass walls. Bobby’s Room is named after 1978 World Series of Poker Champion (and Mirage Chief Design and Construction Officer) Bobby Baldwin.

Bellagio’s poker room features all of the amenities of most poker rooms, including 24-hour table-side dining, complimentary beverage service, a cashier, affable dealers, etc., with the added appeal of LeRoy Neiman-commissioned paintings of high-stakes poker greats.

Still, the number of locals and seasoned poker players may be too much to take on if you’re just beginning, unless you have nerves of steel and don’t mind losing a little dough. There are Daily Poker Tournaments (as there are in many poker rooms in Vegas) where your gambling is limited to your buy-in.

Best hotel for beginning poker players: MGM Grand has a lot of low limit tables and tournaments, with plenty of players itching to learn the ropes of poker. Because there aren’t many tables with limits above $5, it’s hard for an experienced player to find much of a challenge, but this is a great poker room for someone to gain some confidence and practice some poker skills without breaking the ATM machine. MGM has daily tournaments as well, which are well-attended, meaning you could walk away with hundreds or thousands of dollars for the buy-in price, if you win the tournament. If you lose, again, your losses are limited to the price you pay to compete.

THE SIGHTS:
Best tourist experience: Venetian. Float down the Grand Canal in a gondola with your very own sexy, singing gondolier, or enjoy the experience as a spectator, while dining at the Canaletto restaurant at St. Mark’s Place. Canaletto offers Venetian dishes and Il Fornaio fresh baked bread, and has private dining rooms upstairs that overlook the Grand Canal.

Best Shows: Cirque du Soleil, Mamma Mia! And the Liberace Museum.

You Must Do This Once in Your Lifetime: The Liberace Museum, Carluccio’s Tivoli Gardens for dinner with Wes Winters and an after-dinner drink. You may think of the Rat Pack when you think Vegas, but Liberace, with his ostentatious costumes and outrageously feminine behavior, truly embodied the spirit of Las Vegas just as much as Dino and Frank did. And it is the only town that would dare to house his museum. Better yet, if you plan your visit to the museum in the late afternoon, you can dine at Carluccio’s Tivoli Gardens and then catch Wes Winters, a fantastic Liberace-esque performer/pianist, that evening. Mr. Winters does many a tribute to Liberace, and no one living tinkles the ivories with greater flair than Wes.

Mamma Mia!, the #1 show in Vegas according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Is such an effervescent show, full of fun, intrigue, lots of sex and hot Vegas show girls… The performers onstage at the Mandalay Bay theatre are hotter, sexier, more talented, funnier and far better singers than the performers in the movie (even though I’m a Pierce Brosnan and Meryl Streep fan, they kinda sucked). The audience dances like it’s 1979 and whether you are 21 or 41, you’ll likely fall in love with this story of a sexual single mom and her monogamous daughter.

Cirque du Soleil: There are soooo many great Cirque du Soleil shows to choose from and all of them are just jaw-dropping spectacles. I’ve seen most and if you haven’t just pick a different one each time you come to Vegas, starting with the one that appeals to you most. Below are a few, along with their themes…

La Reve at Wynn Las Vegas is not technically a Cirque du Soleil show. It is a show created by Cirque du Soleil’s former creative director Franco Dragone. Reviews written by regular folks call this show an amazing experience, with spectacular effects. It’s expensive, but some report getting great prices on some of the discount travel sites or last minute on eBay auctions… $99, $125 and $179.

Ka at MGM by Cirque du Soleil show features martial arts, acrobatics, drama, incredible moving stages, heart-stopping music and an engaging epic tale of two twins on a perilous journey. KÀ Tickets: $69, $99, $125, and $150. Active military on duty receive 50% off of the $99 and above ticket prices.

Zumanity, at New York, New York, Las Vegas, is the sensual side of Cirque du Soleil and an adults only show. You must be over 18 to attend. It is described as pushing all of your buttons as to what is and is not acceptable in romance, intimacy and sex, including Catholic School Girls, obesity, s/he, nudity, Chippendale’s and that’s only the first five minutes. All of the acrobatics, sensuality, music, mind-blowing body contortions with more nudity, raw sexuality, boundary-blowing lust you can (or can’t) take. To see a sampling of what lies in store for you at the show (and whether it floats your boat), click on the highlighted Zumanity.

Love, Cirque du Soleil’s Beatles Tribute, is staged at The Mirage. Born from a personal friendship and mutual admiration between the late George Harrison and Cirque founder Guy Laliberté, LOVE brings the magic of Cirque du Soleil together with the spirit and passion behind the most beloved rock group of all time to create a vivid, intimate and powerful entertainment experience.

Criss Angel Believe at Luxor. If you can believe all the starlets Criss Angel has been linked to (and how quickly he can make them disappear out of his life), imagine what he can do with the help of the imaginative team of Cirque du Soleil. Preview performances begin on September 12 and run through October 9, 2008. During these performances, the creative team is in the very final stages of production. The audience’s reaction and participation is an important step in this process. The artistic team of CRISS ANGEL Believe reserves the right to interrupt the performance to make adjustments as necessary. The gala premiere is on October 10, 2008.

Mystere and O are two other Cirque du Soleil shows that have been running for quite awhile and are crowd favorites as well.

 

So, if you haven’t been to Las Vegas in awhile, this is a city that has transformed into one of the most exciting, interesting cities in the world, with more choices for indulgence and one-of-a-kind experiences than ever before. Whether your passion is watsu massage or wasabi, whether your poison is topless dancers or poker, whether you spend your evenings tucked beneath the sheets ordering in food from the finest chefs in the world or taking in the visual/audio/passion spectacles of the greatest shows on Earth, Vegas now truly has something for everyone, and at prices we haven’t seen for years.

Las Vegas, Nevada is dealing up the best delights in the world and at these prices, you are the truly the winner.


Find Another Way to Have What You Want.

by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit.

"It is surprising how many improvements can come out of things that go wrong."—Anonymous

Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit.

In the end, financial stress reduction is simply this:

1. Earn more
2. Spend less
3. Find another way to have what you want

When we’re doing all we can to satisfy the first two requirements and yet when we see things we want that cost money, what can we do to stay within our budgets and still get what we want?

This is where you earn your graduate degree from M.S.U. (Make Stuff Up).

In the habit of spending a lot of money on clothes? Learn to sew, or trade services with a friend who sews. Buy too many books? Go to the library or create a circle of like-minded friends with whom you can trade books. Is enjoying nature your priority? Instead of feeling bad that you can’t afford to buy a house with acres of land, live somewhere that is close to a park or wildlife refuge and take a walk there every day. Or rent the guesthouse from someone whose main house is on lots of land.

In my financial darkest days, I lost my home to foreclosure. I had bought when the real estate market (and my business) was high. (Doesn’t that sound familiar? Just like many people are now suffering from the current mortgage meltdown. You might want to forward this to anyone you know who is in that pickle today.) My loans totaled $160,000 and units in my complex were selling for $90,000. Oops. And my interest rate then was 16%!!). When the recession hit and the market and my business plummeted (my biggest client that was 75% of my business left with two weeks notice—right after I had bought my partners out), I found I couldn’t sell it and I couldn’t meet the monthly payments of $1,650. Eventually, I had to give it back to the bank. It was a humiliating personal disaster. (But there are upsides to downsides too. I lived in the condo without having to make a mortgage payment for many months during the foreclosure process. I saved everything I could to try and survive the storm,)

One Friday night, I was playing cards with some girlfriends. They knew I was going through hard times, and one of the girls turned to me and said, "So where are you going to live now?" I said, "I don’t know." She said, "Why don’t you move in here with Shelley?" And Shelley looked up from her cards and said, "Sure. You can move in with me."

So I did. I moved into a gorgeous two-story, three-bedroom, three-bath, 3,000 square foot home in a beautiful hillside setting in a gorgeous neighborhood. The furniture was exquisite, the art to my taste and the autumn color scheme looked made for me. It was the most beautiful—and most expensive—home I had ever lived in. Shelley and I got along great and it was fun having a roommate after years of living alone.

The rent? $200 per month. The value of the house does not appear on my balance sheet. But when I’m walking around in it, I can’t tell I don’t own it.

This particular scenario might not fit your lifestyle. Find one that does. Manage an apartment building in exchange for free rent. Be a professional house sitter. Don’t follow the "American Dream" of home ownership if it’s not your dream. If it is, and you do own a home, in an economic downturn you could find a roommate or two to share expenses. What else could you do? Think outside the box. Make something up.

A recent article in Parade magazine by Mike Hammer mentions that the popular myth is that renters are "just throwing their money away. But the reality is that when you buy a home, you’re paying for closing fees, mortgage interest, property taxes, private homeowners’ insurance and maintenance—costs that return nothing on your investment. You’d be better off banking that money or putting it into the stock market. In fact, a recent study by Fidelity Investments indicates that stocks provided investors with nearly 4.5% higher average returns in the last 45 years than real estate." (The catch here is that you have to take your extra money and really invest it in the stock market—which is sometimes difficult for human beings to do when faced with the potential for immediate gratification of our desires instead of delayed gratification.)

In addition to that, "a study by the National Multi Housing Council points out half of homeowners don’t get a break, because even with mortgage interest and property taxes, their total deductions do not exceed the standard federal tax deduction ($10,900 for couples and $5450 for singles)."

It’s important to make decisions based on what your lifestyle is and what your priorities are and not just blindly follow conventional wisdom. You may be able to live in a much nicer place, with more amenities, and in a better neighborhood if you rent than you would be able to buy.

You don’t have to be rich to live rich.

The thing I’d most like to share with you is this: I was broke, lost my home, almost lost my business, and was shocked and depressed at what had happened to me. I was 46 years old. But I didn’t give up on my dreams and continued to say affirmations and send out ships. Since then, I have built up my Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops, licensed others to teach them, make a six-figure income, published two books, and am quoted in more than 35 books, including 2008 NYT bestsellers Happy for No Reason by Marci Shimoff and Harmonic Wealth by James Arthur Ray. As they say in poker, all you need is "a chip and a chair", and you can make a comeback and win the tournament. Or win the Game of Life.

As a professional speaker and author of The Wealthy Spirit and Zero to Zillionaire, Chellie has been teaching Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops since 1990. The Wealthy Spirit was a book-of-the-week on the Doctor Laura Schlessinger radio show and a GlobalNet book-of-the-month selection. She has been quoted in Good Housekeeping, Lifetime, Woman's World, and Essence, and more than 30 popular books.

Chellie has also been responsible for helping countless people to increase the profitability of their businesses. If you are stuck having too much month at the end of your money, learn Chellie's time-proven strategies to success in her Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops. If you are interested in becoming a certified coach/owner in Chellie's workshop franchises, be sure to contact her right away. Space is limited. Go to Chellie.com for more information.


Water: The Secret Elixir of Health and Beauty.

by Janelle Deeds Nutrition Consultant & Educator

You have heard it once; you’ve heard it many times…water is vital to the quality of your health. But what is really going on when you take that drink of water? Why does it really make a difference, especially if you aren’t even thirsty? And what is all the fuss about?

Here are a few benefits of drinking water include:
* Maintains beautiful healthy looking skin - skin health is a reflection of our internal health.
* Keeps your organ and joints moist - this permits the passage of nutrients and wastes between the blood vessels and the rest of the body.
* Helps to maintain muscle tone and supports weight loss - water plays a key role in the metabolic breakdown of proteins and carbohydrates.
* Supports the regulation of your body temperature - when the body becomes too warm you will break out in a sweat. If you cannot sweat and your temperature rises, you can experience heat stroke or exhaustion.
* Transports oxygen to the cells.

Your body is entirely made up of cells. Protoplasm, the basic material of living cells, is made of macronutrients that you are very familiar with; proteins, fats and carbohydrates. They are integrated in cells and with the various chemical elements combined with water to create the more familiar macronutrients. The basic functioning of the cells, including water balance, digestion, removing toxins, elasticity of the cells, oxygenation, nutrition, sodium/potassium balance etc. depend on Cell Salts. These cell salts are vital nutritional elements of the cell and lacking any one or more of these minerals will prevent the cells from up taking the proper nutrients supplied by digestion and the blood. In the late 1800’s, Dr. Willhelm H. Schuessler observed that the human body, when reduced to ashes contained only 12 minerals in the form of salts.

In a normal healthy body, minerals and micro elements pass through the cell membrane to the nucleus by electro-osmosis. A cell exchanges elements with the rest of the body by electrolysis. The body needs electrolytes (salt minerals like sodium, potassium, chloride and bicarbonate) for basic body functions. If your body loses water, it loses the ability to use these minerals.

Dehydration of the body is a serious matter. At 1% dehydration, most individuals will find that they have reduced athletic performance; others may experience a headache, tiredness, and irritability or just feel thirsty. They often may not feel quite right but with no specific concerns. When 2% dehydration is reached, athletes can experience a 30% loss in performance, others may find rapid onset of fatigue, increased heart rate and elevated body temperature. Metabolic processes are now hindered which can include symptoms of indigestion and constipation. When the body can no longer release waste properly it retains toxins, which can create a dis-eased state.

Hydration and detoxification start inside and continues to reflect on the outside. By keeping your water intake up throughout the day you are providing your body with the necessary support to function at an optimal level.

We had a young woman come in to the HealthWalk office who just couldn’t boost her energy level. She was not a water drinker at all, but preferred soda and energy drinks. We had her do a little experiment for two weeks - Drink only water placed on any of the HealthWalk’s Hydromag™ water treatment line of products. Her concern was that when she increased her water intake she would have to run to the potty all the time, but by using the Hydromag™, the water was restored to a more natural balance thereby allowing the minerals and nutrients to be more bio-available and absorb more efficiently. The hydromag treated water also helped her body regain a healthier alkaline state, which supported the release of toxins in her body. She was amazed at how such a simple suggestion could make such a dramatic difference. In two weeks her energy level went up, she felt more alert and her moods improved!

Look to your foods for water as well. Dry, packaged and processed foods contain little to no water. However, organic, seasonal, fresh fruits and vegetables are abundant in all of the necessary nutrients, water, vitamins, minerals, fiber, antioxidants, and phytonutrients. They taste good, are nourishing for your body as well as offer a refreshing alternative.

A few tips for drinking water:
1. Never drink water that smells or tastes like chlorine. It is the natural minerals that you want in your water, not chemicals.
2. Use bottled water as a temporary solution. It can be expensive, is environmentally unfriendly and the chemicals in the plastic can leach out to give undesirable side effects. Check into a home purifying system or water service.
3. Have your water tested for leaching. Impurities from plumbing and hot water tanks can show up in your cooking water or shower!
4. Use HealthWalk’s hydromag™ water treatment products to facilitate your blood’s ability to become more alkaline. The hydromag™ decreases the surface tension of the water/liquid, aligns the water molecules and restores it to its natural state. Water in its natural state supports the increase in your blood’s available oxygen and thus improving the function of your body and thereby reducing fatigue.

So raise your water glass and cheers! To your health.

HealthWalk™ offers customized, non-invasive and effective support to enable your body’s own innate powers to enhance health, performance and healing. HealthWalk is dedicated to supporting and educating you to achieve and maintain vibrant wellness. HealthWalk is a unique integrative healthcare facility and sanctuary with a global umbrella of leading edge technologies, services, supplements and products backed by over 20 years of research. 

For more information about HealthWalk’s hydromag water treatment products: http://www.healthwalk.com/ProductsStore/HydroMag/tabid/125/Default.aspx.com  

HealthWalk, the leading edge non-invasive healthcare center and products company has specially priced Health and Wellness Services Packages and Discounts on Products and Services for NataliePace.com subscribers. HealthWalk is offering 10% discount for NataliePace.com subscribers on all individual HealthWalk products and services. Please mention the discount code, HWNP upon ordering.

In today’s high stress world, you face a host of special health needs and challenges from work and home demands. Health issues include physical and emotional stress, sleep issues, memory and information retention, weight control, gastro-intestinal distress, hormonal imbalances and emotional and physical health.

Remote Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) analysis - $325 (available to be conducted via phone and internet)
G.S.R. measures through the conductivity of the skin, the autonomic nervous system responses to stress. A stress profile is determined by looking at the body’s meridians, vertebrae, teeth, and organs. G.S.R. can also look at food, environmental, chemical, viral, bacterial, and fungal stressors. G.S.R. provides the means for clearly seeing what is transpiring in your systems so that a thorough analysis of your reactions to energy, foods, supplements, toxins and more can be observed. Then with the G.S.R. we can confirm the compatibility of all potential solutions prior to recommending them.

HealthWalk In Clinic Package
In one full, comprehensive and enlightening day at HealthWalk’s clinic you will learn more about your health and bodily functions (hormonal balance, blood composition, biological activity, diet analysis) than you have ever known. The whole analysis and consultation process is non-invasive, thorough and deeply informative. You will come away with the solutions, supplements and support to guide you on your path to enhancing, regaining and maintaining your vibrant health.

HealthWalk’s special package includes Vital Hematology, Comprehensive Hormone and Adrenal Analysis and Consultation, Digital Infrared Thermal Imaging (breast and lymph screening), Galvanic Skin Response (G. S. R.) and a consultation session with the Health Guide.

Special discount for NataliePace.com subscribers - $995 regularly $1170

HealthWalk’s Remote Program allows you to obtain a comprehensive analysis and support for your health so you can achieve wellness from your own location. HealthWalk has contracted with labs throughout the country to work with you to obtain the blood and saliva samples to do a thorough analysis and consult with you via phone and email on your specific health issues and to offer you appropriate support. This program gives you a comprehensive analysis and solutions on what and how your body is functioning at the adrenal, biological, hormonal, cognitive, mental and metabolic levels. The significant majority of all illnesses and promotion of wellness can be related to the proper functioning and understanding of the endocrine system, the biochemical aspects of the body and the proper functioning and understanding of nutrient uptake, allergies, inflammation, and potential or current toxins in the body. This program will give you the information and support you need to enhance, regain and maintain vibrant health.

The cost of the Remote Program is $1395

Call HealthWalk at 877-255-4703 or email info@healthwalk.com
www.healthwalk.com

HealthWalk, 5825Avenida Encinas suite 111, Carlsbad CA 92008
You can lose everything in life and make it all back
With one exception… Your Health

Please note: This article has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. The information herein is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.


Even Virgin Investors Can Discover the Joy of Stocks.

by Natalie Pace. Top 10 Things You Already Know About Investing.

1. If you can shop, you can pick a stock. Read the articles, "Don't Blind Date Your Money," in the NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 3, issue 1, and "Recipe for Successful Investing" in vol. 3, issue 10.

2. If you can pick a fantastic life partner, you can pick an experienced certified financial planner to co-design that dream life with you. For tips, go to "How to Pick a Broker" in the Investor Edu section at NataliePace.com.

3. If you can tip 15%, you can tithe 10% -- to your "Buy My Own Island" account. Get invested now!! For a sample HOW TO plan, read the articles, "The Secret of Wealth: Double Your Fun Budget," in the NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 4, issue3, and "Thrive: The Secret to Wealth Life Plan", in vol. 4, issue 4.

4. If you make $14 an hour, you can be a millionaire in less than 31 years, by tithing only 10% to your freedom plan. Read "From Flipping Burgers to Owning Your Own Island!" (vol. 3, issue 5).

5. Even virgins can learn the joy of stocks. Read, "The Joy of Stocks, as Told by Virgin Investor," in the NataliePace.com ezine, vol 3, issue 10. Written by Jodi Seidler.

6. If you call it your "Buy My Own Island Plan," you're more likely to open the statements, than if you're still ignoring your "retirement plan." Read the article of the same name in NataliePace.com archived ezine vol. 3, issue 11.

7. If you can harness your emotions, you'll make better investment choices. Get tips on how to from my new book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is, available now on Amazon.com.

8. You should think twice before cashing out your 401 (k)! (If you do, you could lose half of your savings!) NataliePace.com featured a special Investor Alert from the NASD in vol. 3, issue 7.

9. If you prepare for emergencies, natural disasters, war and terrorism, chances are you and your portfolio will survive. Find out 11 Preparedness Tips Against War, Terrorism and "Acts of God," in the article "War and Your Portfolio," from NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 3, issue 8.

10. It pays to hang on to your home, even if the value is currently less than your mortgage. If you’re having trouble figuring out how to keep your place, you’ll find ample resources and ideas in the article, "Hope Now for Distressed Homeowners," from NataliePace.com archived ezine, vol. 5, issue 7


Blue Chip Value Stocks on Sale.

by Kelley Wright, managing editor, Investment Quality Trends stock newsletter.

First-September 2008

I have been asked countless times why the Investment Outlook is written in narrative style with a series of vignettes as opposed to a recap of the indexes, specific indicators, technical analysis observations, etc. With the advent of the Internet there is more information, much of which is in real-time, than anyone could ever possibly assimilate.

While this glut of information is nirvana to some, we find that much of it is a distraction and can lead Subscribers off on irrelevant tangents. For this reason we focus on the information we feel is pertinent to our approach and is cogent.

On the cover page for example, we always begin with An Illuminating Concept. In simple terms this is our way of keeping in touch with the "big picture;" we invest in stocks, therefore we must have a mechanism that identifies value. The dividend, which determines dividend yield, will eventually determine price. Value then, lies in yield as reflected by the dividend trend and individual stocks will fluctuate in price between the repetitive extremes of high dividend yield and low dividend yield.

For a macro perspective we follow the dividend yield trends of both the Dow Jones Industrial and Utilities Averages. While stocks follow their individual paths, the prevailing trends of these broad averages provide important insights as to which way the wind is blowing and can assist investors in the timing of purchases and/or sales.

The Select Blue Chips –Summary on page 2 tracks the number of stocks in each category of value. As the changes from issue to issue can be subtle, we have produced long-term graphs that can be viewed in the Special Reports area of the website, which allow Subscribers to "step back" and see the changes with a broader perspective. The Select Blue Chips Summary is an important tool as it can confirm the prevailing trends in the broad averages or gives a warning that something is amiss through a divergence.

By example, the prevailing trend in the markets is obviously down. Accordingly, the number of stocks in the Undervalued category is increasing. In 2004 and 2005 when the markets were rising, the Undervalued category shrank to levels that were coincident with previous major market tops. While the dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to decline to its repetitive area of Overvalue, the fact that there were so few stocks representing good historical value was a tip-off that risk far out-weighed any potential reward.

The most important data we publish is the stock tables because at the end of the day it is the individual stocks we invest in, not the markets. It is the dividends the companies pay and the dividend trends that are important. As Geraldine Weiss (the founder of Investment Quality Trends) has stated many times, "dividends and dividend trends are the rhythm and the melody; everything else is just the flutes and the woodwinds."

Not to sound like a politician then, heaven knows there is enough of that to go around, but my comments are more nuanced; things in the periphery I pick up on that adds color to the data. Hopefully these musings and insights contribute to Subscribers considerations and deliberations in a positive way, which is my intention.

Louise Yamada, the respected market technician and author of Market Magic recently shared some work on long-term market cycles that are interesting. Three items that caught my attention: "Gold broke out of a 22-year downtrend in 2002 and entered a new structural bull market; the CRB (Commodities Research Bureau) Index in 2003 broke out into a new structural bull market; oil in 2004 lifted through a 24-year plateau and, based on historical studies, entered into a new multi-year uptrend never to come back down to the old lows. That doesn’t mean it can’t come down a little but it has never come back down to where it was before in these multi-year step ups in price."

If Louise is correct in her assessment, Barrick Gold (ABX) (currently a Faded Blue), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Chevron (CVX) (at $82 or better) come to mind as stocks that would perform well in such an environment.

 

MAIL CALL
Questions from Subscribers and Seminar Attendees.

Q. As a long-term Subscriber I have often wondered why you haven’t created a mutual fund or ETF for investors that cannot meet the $1,000,000 minimum at IQ Trends Private Client. Given your track record I would think that would be very popular. Do you have any plans for a fund or ETF in the future?

A. We recognize a $1,000,000 minimum is a significant hurdle for many investors. We also recognize the vast popularity of mutual funds and ETF’s. Our Consulting Platform, which has no dollar minimum, was designed in part to address that issue but it also requires the investor to be responsible for executing the trades and tracking performance. While this is attractive and quite popular with financial professionals and the "do-it-yourselfers," it has left a gap for the fund or ETF investor.

To that end we have devoted considerable time to determine whether one or both vehicles would work with our approach and fit into our vision for investment management. Part of our research has consisted of a number of discussions with some well established fund families and ETF providers who agree with your assessment that such an offering(s) would be well received by the marketplace. While this is quite flattering and we appreciate the demand, at the end of the day we have not been able to reconcile some fundamental issues we have with the internal mechanics of both platforms.

Recently, however, we were introduced to a platform that for all intents and purposes will allow us to offer a portfolio that has all of the favorable attributes of a mutual fund or ETF but without the inherent issues we find objectionable. Due to the advanced technology at our disposal with this platform, we will be able to offer access to a portfolio that has the attributes of both The Lucky 13 and the Timely Ten but is actively managed.

We are still finalizing some of the details but we feel the platform should be available in the fourth quarter. We will provide more details and a timetable as they become available, so stay tuned!

Kelley Wright’s stock newsletter Investment Quality Trends is currently performing at the top all of his peers on Wall Street for the past 20 years and is ranked #4 in risk-adjusted performance by Hulbert’s Financial Digest. Kelley’s stock newsletter, IQTrends.com, is earning 11.6% in annualized gains over the past 20 years, according to Hulbert’s, compared to general stock market performance of 11% (as of May 2008). IQTrends.com also has lower risk and volatility than the market average. To subscribe, go to IQTrends.com

Regulatory Reminder
Please keep in mind that as an investment newsletter, the staff at Investment QualityTrends are legally bound to only answer questions of a general nature and are unable to provide specific buy/sell recommendations or specific advice on an individual basis. For those interested in obtaining more information on individual management services in accordance with our approach, our sister company, I.Q. Trends Private Client Asset Management, is a Registered Investment Adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among the platforms available through I.Q. Trends Private Client are individual portfolio consultations and active account management. For more information, please contact Mr. Michael Minney at (866) 927-5250 ext. 201. Disclosure documents are located at: http://www.iqtrendsprivateclient.com

Please note: This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


The September Back to School Stock Sales and Other Wall Street Trends.

Subscribers chat with Natalie Pace on August 27, 2008.

Photo of Natalie Pace by: Stacie Isabella Turk, Ribbonhead.com ©2008.
Stylist: Arlene Hylton-Campbel, 818-710-0079.

Over the past six years, we’ve been talking about a few Wall Street trends that professional traders have come to rely on – namely the election year and monthly stock market performance trends. You may have heard that Wall Street aphorism, "Sell in May and go away," but did you know that September is historically the worst performing month each year? Or that October has hosted the worst days in Wall Street history, including Black Monday (October 19, 1987) and Black Thursday (October 24, 1929)?

You probably suspected that the elections have a big impact on the stock market, but did you know the pre-election and election years produce almost double the returns of the two post-election years? Did you that the Santa Rally – the last quarter of the year -- typically produces over 50% of the stock market gains?

Since this is an election year and we’re poised on the brink of the Santa Rally, you might think that all of that adds up to a heyday in the markets to 2008, but that wasn’t the case in 2000 – another hotly contested election year. In 2000, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost over 40% of its value between September 1, 2000 and January 3, 2001.

 

Stock Market Performance from September 1, 2000 to January 3, 2001

What does all of this mean in 2008? Which way is the wind blowing? How does a company with a hot new product, like the Apple iPhone, go down in share price?

Subscribers chatted with Natalie Pace on August 27, 2008, asking her this and much, much more.

 

QUESTION: What’s the best way to begin learning about investing?

Answer: My Get Rich and Enrich Retreat is actually the best way to begin because you immerse yourself in learning for three days, after which you are completely transformed. I’ve watched newbie scaredy cat investors gain an extreme amount of confidence and wisdom and tools in just three short days. When you think about it, you spend four years at the university and you don’t learn much of anything that is really useful in successful investing. There are doctors, lawyers, investment bankers, MBAs, lots of people who have difficulty really making money at investing because their systems are too complicated or they rely too heavily upon this or that software or technical analysis or their friends’ hot tips. When you learn how to tap into your unique skills and passions and have a framework of identifying the right company at the right price – all of which are taught at the retreat – you set up a solid, proven foundation for your investing. It’s worked for Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch and Natalie Pace, and it can work for you, too.

I’m coming to the retreat. Do I need to do anything to prepare for it?

The best thing is to the headline article, the Stock Report Card in that article and the Hot News article. Then write down a list of questions that we can answer for you at the retreat. Since there are only a dozen people in the room, pretty much EVERY question receives an answer. The headline article in the August ezine was the Company of the Year article! Since three out of five Company of the Year selections have doubled or more, you definitely want to read that article!

I am happy with my investment in Suntech and our 40% gain. We cashed out. I’m hoping that the retreat will help me to know how to do that, instead of always relying upon you.

FYI: The retreat in September is sold out, but I’m doing another one October 21-23, 2008. There are only a dozen seats in these two retreats – hands-on learning directly from me! The October retreat only has a few seats remaining so if you’re interested you need to contact Heather right away at Heather@NataliePace.com or 866.476.7442.

While a university degree costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, my retreat, which is designed to create a great investor out of you, only costs $1295 per person or $1880 per couple. Imagine the wealth you can start accumulating after you jumpstart your game! Your 40% gain is something that anyone can enjoy.

I want to brag about you for just a moment because you just started an investment club a few months ago. The first buy was Suntech, which, as you said, was just sold for 40% gain! This all happened in just a few short months.

Less than two months! It was very encouraging!

So everyone should understand that this is do-able. This year the strategy is take your profits early and often. The markets are down on the year and the year is predicted to continue to be challenging. 40% gains in a market that has lost 14% of its value is great! Professionals would be leaping through their skin to brag about that!

What resources (websites, newsletters, publications, etc.) do you specifically use in doing your research on companies?

Again, let me say that at the retreat, you bring your computer and learn firsthand all of my resources, including the power searching that I do. I rely largely upon the Bible of the company, which are their earnings reports. The quarterly and annual earnings reports of publicly traded companies are available online at SEC.GOV. These reports are bulky and impossible to read, unless you know how to do power searching on key words. Some of the key words that I search on include net income, revenue, debt, liabilit (drop the y because some companies use liability and others liabilities, so if you use the y you miss hitting the search). Management discussion. Lawsuit. Etc. What’s really key to my success, however, is the Stock Report Card, the 3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits and the four questions to finding a winning stock.

That sounds like a lot of work!

It’s less work than reading an article and, at the same time, more information than most analysts consider when making their recommendations! The cool thing is that with the recipe and the four questions, a lot of the information that you are using is information that you already know as a shopper of the company. With the stock report card, it provides a way to look at all of the key numbers of the company that you are interested in, alongside the competition. This information can be put together in about 15 minutes, and provides you with a lot more data and useable information than you will find in most articles.

What are the four questions you are referring to? Sorry, you may have already listed them.

Below are the Four Basic Questions for Picking Winning Stocks, using Google as the example. These questions helped me to pick Google as such a hot stock at the IPO back in May of 2004, when all of the other pundits were pooh-poohing the company as too weird to shine and without a proven revenue stream to support the valuations that the share price was being driven up to.

Four Basic Questions for Picking Winning Stocks

1. What’s the product?
Search engine. Something we all need and use daily, to the point that "Google it" has become part of the language. (You don’t hear anyone saying "Yahoo it," do you?)

2. Who’s going to buy it, and why would they like that product more than the competitor’s version?
Google was also the number-one search engine in the U.S., UK, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and Australia, with 81.9 million global unique users per month. Why did users like the product better? It was a better search engine, returning dozens more pertinent options per inquiry than the competition. Additionally, they developed the easy-to-use text ads, which looked pleasingly similar to the responses to your search query. And, there were none of the dreaded pop-up ads.

3. Can the company make a superior product and get it to the masses while the customer’s appetite is piqued and the product is fresh?
Google had been leading search queries online for so long that it had become a pop phenomenon. Just as Kleenex has become a generic term for tissue, Google has come to mean "search," regardless of which search engine was being used. Whenever a company achieves that level of supremacy, they are more difficult to displace because, without advertising, their brand is handed down generation to generation by word of mouth. Additionally, Google made it easy for smaller, local mom-and-pop companies to capture a part of the global search marketplace (and a little revenue stream of their own), while beautifying the Google bottom line. Google is entrenched in the American lifestyle, as well as in many nations around the globe.

4. Who’s running the company, and how motivated are the employees to deliver superior product faster, cheaper, better?
The two guys who founded Google were young, energetic Stanford graduate students. The experienced Internet CEO they hired to oversee the business agreed to be involved in a "triumvirate" of power, which meant that the sensible energy that had brought a billion dollars in revenue to the company would still carry weight. The three executives required engineers to spend a day a week on projects that interested them, unrelated to their day jobs. The Google reception area was decorated with lava lamps and beanbag chairs. The founders regularly skated in the biweekly roller hockey game during lunchtime. Employees were known to gain the "Google 20"—20 pounds they put on because Google offers free food to their staff members. And the company promised to make money without being evil. Lofty goals perhaps, but it certainly seemed to be working.

I have a motto that says, "Happy people make better products faster, cheaper." Google’s book on success might very well bear that title.

Now, this is an excerpt from my new book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. I highly recommend that you pre-order it on Amazon.com now. Almost every question that has been asked today is answered in that book. If you attend my retreat and buy the book, then the odds that you shift into wealth consciousness and profitable investing increase greatly.

If you buy the book without the 3-day retreat, you miss out on learning how to put my teachings into an actionable investment plan. When my book is a massive success, you will be VERY glad that you attended a retreat early on, when there were just a dozen people in the room. My retreats will not be intimate in the future.

Those tips on Suntech were super useful to us!

Check out the Solar Report Card and the Company of the Year article (vol. 5, issue 8) last month to really see what I’m talking about re: Suntech and Sunpower.

You’ll see right off the bat that Suntech has a profit margin of 13%, whereas Sunpower’s margin is just 5%. That’s a huge competitive advantage. You’ll also see that Suntech’s price to earnings ratio is 22, whereas Sunpower’s is 45. That simply means that on the buy low; sell high continuum, Suntech is on sale and with Sunpower, you are paying above the retail price. There are many other indicators and most add up to Suntech, over Sunpower, when you are just looking at the numbers.

After lining up the numbers, you also need to consider what lies ahead and that’s where we get to the four questions. That’s why I say you want to use all of these tools, not just one. When you get through with the Stock Report Card and the four questions, then you still need to use the 3-ingredient investment recipe to guide your buy and sell.

Natalie’s 3-Ingredient Recipe for Cooking Up Profits

  1. Invest in what you know and love (that way you know how to value it)
  2. Pick the leader in the sector (in real estate, it’s location, location, location)
  3. Buy low; sell high (easy to say; hard to do)

Now you might think, that’s a lot of stuff to remember! Which is why you want to buy the book and keep it as your resource guide, and come to the retreat to start developing these tools as habits.

I do not understand how a company like Apple goes down (share prices), when there are thousands of people in line to get a sold out iPhone that’s a huge success!

If you want to check out what I’m going to say while I’m commenting, just enter AAPL or Apple in the Company Research box on the home page at NataliePace.com. Now, full disclosure, Apple was on my Hot news list in 2007 and on the Cooling Off List in 2008. We made a lot of gains on both positions! I put Apple on the Hot List at $85 and took it off after it posted 57% gains. I put Apple on the Cooling Off list and took it off when the put option was "in the money" by 35%.

So, how did you know to sell Apple and put it on the Cooling Off list?

One of the reasons is that we have been in a bear market all year. The stock market current is floating downstream. It is difficult for ANY company to post gains when the entire marketplace is losing ground. That is THE MOST IMPORTANT consideration. Which is why this year my mantra has been, "Take your profits early and often." Even great companies have only been able to swim upstream for a few days before the share price gets drug down again.

Who/what decides/determines the current flow to the marketplace?

The marketplace direction is highly correlated to GDP growth, which is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at BEA.GOV.

But, let’s take a layman’s look at why I thought that Apple was a cooling off stock when the iPhone was so hot. Apple’s revenues are derived almost exclusively from the consumer wallet. (PCs on the other hand get more help from the corporate spenders.)

Ahhh! Check up on who the customer is, like your Four Questions tell us to do!

Right! So, when you have high oil prices (high gas prices), a downturn in real estate (meaning people can’t use their home equity as an ATM machine any more), increasing prices on other core needs, like food, etc., you can see that people may make their current phone last longer and opt out of the hip, new, cool iPhone. Apple does a great job of creating demand for their products by limiting supply, but that doesn’t mean that they will withstand the pressures of the consumer wallet constraints. So, my way of researching and looking at the company requires much more than reading headlines. But it’s not more difficult or time consuming. You’re just using a structured reasoning platform to ask the more pertinent questions.

If you click on the Financials page of Apple from your favorite financial website (Google, MSN, Yahoo, etc.), then you’ll see that Apple’s third quarter 2008 sales were lower than the second quarter sales. That’s the first time that has happened in years.

If you didn’t know from the obvious who the customer was, what site would you gather that information from?

Well, remember, the first ingredient in the recipe for cooking up profits is to know the company well. Knowing what the product or service is and who buys it is key to understanding the basics about the company, and you’re better off starting with goods, services and companies that you know something about than starting off with a meaningless name and trying to learn all of this information about the company. However, if you have a really Hot Tip and you want to start the process of getting to know the company, you can see an overview of what they do and who their customer is on the About Us page of their website. You’ll typically find a list of their partners and customers on the website as well. If the company description and customer/partner lists are not listed in their own link on the website, then check the company press releases. Typically there will be an About Us section at the bottom of the press release.

Ahhh… Sticking with what I know…

And love. Reading headlines and following hot tips are two of the most common investing mistakes. Reading headlines, which are based upon the press releases, which are written by the company, which are rah rah speeches to get you to like their stock, is a sure recipe for disaster because the success of a company is highly correlated with EARNINGS, not hype. In the short term, it is headlines, but if the earnings reports don’t match the headlines or if the general marketplace is under pressure, then tomorrow’s headline will be based upon the new and not so impressive earnings report, and the share price will go down. You want to have a clear understanding of what the earnings reports are going to look like. And that is better derived through the Stock Report Card, the Four Questions, the 3-ingredient recipe for cooking up profits and then my market reports and these chats than through reading articles.

When did this bear market begin?

As I said, the general marketplace is highly correlated with GDP growth, which tanked in the last quarter of 2007. That’s when the markets began to dive. GDP growth is predicted to remain anemic until 2010, although we did have a surprise this quarter with the 3.3 GDP growth preliminary estimates that were released on August 28 (prompting a rally in the stock market that day). The housing market is a crisis for some homeowners, but in the positive category, people have been driving much less this year, which reduced the amount of oil that we imported. That reduction in imports, as well as the state and federal government spending, played a big part in our GDP growth in the second quarter!

GDP Growth Rates

GDP Growth

Period

4.9%

3Q 2007

.6%

4Q 2007

.9%

1Q 2008

3.3%

2Q 2008 (preliminary)

Source: Bea.gov and Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Stock market performance Jan. 2007 through August 29, 2008

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com

There are other factors to consider, especially in the short term. For instance, the Santa Rally (stock market performance between October and the end of December) worked in another election year – 2004.

Stock Market Performance from September 1, 2004 to January 3, 2005

But was a disaster in 2000…

Stock Market Performance from September 1, 2000 to January 3, 2001

Source: MoneyCentral.msn.com

Natalie’s Note: (Incidentally, you can create charts like this for yourself on MoneyCentral.msn.com.)

Will there be a Santa Rally this year? That is one of the topics I’ll start addressing in the upcoming ezines. We’ll be hosting a few economists in the chat room to discuss where the markets are headed, as we near the election in November!

Where did you say the best place to learn about options are and where would go to watch metals/commodities prices?

We cover options at my retreat, and the information covered there is ESSENTIAL for investing in options. I’m biased, but it’s hard to match my success. You should learn from people who have a lot of experience and success (gains) over time. That is a small group, of which I’m one. Options trading is more difficult and more risky, so your most important investment is to hitch your learning to someone who is truly great at all of these things and has had a lot of measurable performance gains (on average when all positions are considered, not just a few select positions) over an extended period of time, through bull and bear markets. This year, my system of analysis has come up with 28 winners, with only 7 companies that are performing in the opposite direction (as was my track record as of the August 18, 2008 Hot News on Cool Stocks mid-month update). Some of the best performers are on the Cooling Off list (aka "put" options).

Thanks for the recent note on selling Suntech. Morningstar just rated it a 5-star stock, and one could consider buying at these levels. What do you think will be a good re-entry point?

Bear markets typically provide multiple buy-in opportunities, even on highly rated stocks, which is why the mantra this year (again) is, "Take your profits early and often." 40% gain is a gain. We’ll keep Suntech on the Hot News article and report on it and highlight it when we think the price to earnings ratio is in a good place, relative to the marketplace. The marketplace is VERY dynamic right now and we’re entering the month that usually posts the worst gains of the year – September. That’s why I don’t just throw out a number. It might be Wake Me Up When September ends and see what the price is then.

I didn’t receive the note on Suntech!

Notes from Natalie are part of our service for our Premium Subscribers. If you didn’t check out the note on the Premium Subscriber’s Sharing Wisdom bulletin board, then you are probably not a premium subscriber. By the way, a premium subscription is included FREE when you attend my retreat, so you receive ongoing wisdom and support at the highest level all year long.

So, you only tell the premium subscribers when it’s time to sell?

No, that’s not the model. The standard subscription includes the monthly ezine, the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks article and these online chats, whereas the premium subscription includes special Notes from Natalie on volatile market days, special premium subscribers only online monthly chats and quarterly teleconferences with me. The premium subscription costs more and they receive ongoing news and access to question and answer sessions with me. The standard subscription operates more like a magazine, with the added bonus that you get to participate in monthly chats as well. Also, remember, I’m a journalist, like Forbes, not a broker or analyst, like Schwab. I report on the news. You take that information, and together with your certified financial plan and according to your Freedom Plan blueprint, determine what you will buy and sell.

Are there any environmentally and socially responsible mutual funds that you like?

I like the PowerShares Clean Energy portfolio (PBW). But the interesting thing is that it never performs as well as the green individual companies that are listed on the Hot News list. So, the best "mutual fund" might be to create your own basket of stocks from the Hot News list and call it your green fund. If you own about a dozen green stocks then you are more protected than if you just bank on one. If you are buying and selling within your IRA or other tax-protected brokerage account, then you can take your profits without paying capital gains, as well.

When’s your next retreat?

October 21-23, 2008, and it is almost sold out, with only a few seats remaining! Remember: retreat attendees receive a Premium Subscription and the 21-day coaching call series, meaning that you get $8000 value for just $1295 for one person (or $1880 for a couple, receiving $16,000 value). There are a dozen people only in the room learning investing firsthand from me. It’s a great way to protect your nest egg from bear market losses and learn how to post great gains with reduced risk. I do teach options there because put options (done with the proper window and strategy) are the easiest way to benefit from the downturn in the markets. Options are riskier than stocks and more difficult to learn, but after two and a half days of the retreat, people are usually primed enough to start understanding the basics of the put and call option. Call 866.476.7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com to sign up for the October retreat! Thanks for joining me this morning. Have a great day.

 

Fake Seals and Phony Numbers: How Fraudsters Try to Look Legit.

Investor Alert from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

It's a hard, cold fact: fraudsters lie. That's how they attempt to make money. They lie when they promise you "guaranteed" high returns with little or no risk. And they lie when they forget to mention that the company or product they're touting doesn't exist.

Some fraudsters tell straightforward lies, fabricating facts or making bogus claims. That's why we encourage investors to do their own independent research and to remember that wonderful, timeless adage: "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." Other fraudsters salt their stories with grains of truth to give their schemes an air of legitimacy. For many years, the SEC and securities regulators around the globe have been encouraging investors to investigate before they invest — to ask tough questions about their investments and the people who sell them. Taking their cue from us, some fraudsters now pretend to do the same.

One ruse fraudsters use involves assurances that an investment has been registered with the appropriate agency. The fraudsters will purport to give you the agency's telephone number and invite you to verify for yourself the "authenticity" of their claims. But even if the agency does exist, the contact information almost certainly will be false. Instead of speaking with an actual government official, you'll reach the fraudsters or their colleagues — who will give the company, the promoter, or the transaction high marks.

Another trick involves the misuse of a regulator's seal. The fraudsters copy the official seal or logo from the regulator's website — or create a bogus seal for a fictitious entity — and then use that seal on documents or web pages to make the deal look legitimate. You should be aware that the SEC — like other state and federal regulators in the U.S. and around the world — does not allow private entities to use its seal. Moreover, the SEC does not "approve" or "endorse" any particular securities, issuers, products, services, professional credentials, firms, or individuals.

Here's how you can protect yourself against these and other deceptive tactics:

* Deal Only With Real Regulators — It's not hard to figure out who the real regulators are and how you can contact them. You'll find a list of international securities regulators on the website of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) and a directory of state and provincial regulators in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. on the website of the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA). If someone encourages you to verify information about a deal with an entity that doesn't appear on these lists — such as the "Federal Regulatory & Compliance Department," the "Securities and Registration Compliance" agency, or the "U.S. Securities Registration Bureau" — you're probably dealing with fraudsters. You'll find legitimate contact information for the SEC in the Contact Us section of our website and on SEC Division Homepages. If you're ever unsure whether you're dealing with someone from the real SEC, use our online Question Form to ask us.

* Be Skeptical of Government "Approval" — The SEC does not evaluate the merits of any securities offering, nor do we determine whether a particular security is a "good" investment. Instead, the SEC's staff reviews registration statements for securities offerings and declares those statements "effective" if the companies appear to have satisfied our disclosure rules. In general, all securities offered in the U.S. must be registered with the SEC or must qualify for an exemption from the registration requirements. You can check to see whether a company has registered its securities with the SEC and download its disclosure documents using our EDGAR database of company filings.

* Look Past Fancy Seals and Impressive Letterheads — Most people who use computers know how easy it can be to copy and paste images. As a result, today's technology allows fraudsters to create impressive, legitimate-looking websites and stationery at little to no cost. Don't be taken in by a glossy brochure, a glitzy website, or the presence of a regulator's official seal on a web page or document. Again, the SEC does not authorize private companies to use our seal — even as a legitimate link to our website. If you see the SEC seal on a company's website or materials, think twice.

* Check Out the Broker and the Firm — Always verify whether any broker offering to buy or sell securities is properly licensed to do business in your state, province, or country. If the person claims to work with a U.S. brokerage firm, call NASD's Public Disclosure Program hotline at (800) 289-9999 or visit NASD's website to check out the background of both the individual broker and the firm. Be sure to confirm whether the firm actually exists and is current in its registration, and ask whether the broker or the firm has a history of complaints. You can often get even more information from your state securities regulator.

* Be Wary of "Advance Fee" or "Recovery Room" Schemes — An increasing number of investment-related frauds target investors worldwide who purchase "microcap" stocks, the low-priced and thinly traded stocks issued by the smallest of U.S. companies. If the stock price falls or the company goes out of business, the fraudsters swoop in, falsely claiming that they can help investors recover their losses — for a substantial fee disguised as some type of tax, deposit, or refundable insurance bond. As soon as an unwary investor pays the "advance fees," the fraudsters disappear — leaving the investor with even higher losses. For more information about these types of frauds, please read our publication entitled The Fleecing of Foreign Investors.

If you want to invest wisely and steer clear of frauds, you must get the facts. Never, ever, make an investment based solely on a promoter's promises or what you see on the Internet — especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn't well known. And don't even think about investing on your own in small companies that don't file regular reports with the SEC, unless you are willing to investigate each company thoroughly and to check the truth of every statement about the company. For more information on investing wisely, visit the Investor Information section of our website.

The Sec.gov has provided this information ass a service to investors. It is neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of SEC policy. If you have questions concerning the meaning or application of a particular law or rule, please consult with an attorney who specializes in securities law.


The Hare Wins the Dash; Jabba the Hut Rules the Universe.

by Natalie Pace. How to Pick Winning Companies in a Challenging Stock Market.

Is there another way to separate the slow, steady companies from the fast-growing companies? In short, the bigger the company, typically the slower the revenue growth, due to increased competition and market saturation. The smaller and younger the company, the faster the growth, especially if it’s in a new, hot industry and has the best product in that space. There is greater potential for gains in small cap companies, which can justify paying a higher P/E and sometimes even buying in before the company is profitable (with a P/E of N/A).

I refer to hot, young companies as "the hare," and steady, reliable companies—like General Electric, Microsoft and other big, fat Blue Chips—as Jabba the Hutt. The hare can win the dash and make you very happy and rich in the short run; Jabba the Hut wins the marathon and adds stability to the foundation of your nest egg. Keeping the small, growth company well-fed and fiscally fit requires a lot of tending. If you’re not willing to do the research and keep your eye on the temperature of the sector, the cash on hand, the earnings growth, the insider trading and/or the deal flow, you might miss cashing in your gains. Reduce risk while gaining exposure to the hares by owning Small Cap Exchange Traded Funds.

Jabba the Hutt rules the universe and wins the marathon. If he gains or loses a pound or two in the meantime, you’re not going to notice much. There is much less gain or loss or spectacular movements in share price in these big companies, which can be a very stabilizing force for your nest egg, but a frustrating presence in a trading portfolio. And if the hare is winning every race in their field, Jabba the Hutt companies will either gobble up the hare (acquire the company), step on the hare (beat them with a price war or other competitive tactic), sideline the hare (tie up the executives with legal wrangling), or utilize some other trick to win back the profits. Reduce risk in your nest egg by owning Large Cap Exchange Traded Funds.

In short, for your trading portfolio, where you are looking to take your profits in shorter windows, the smaller, younger, fast-growth companies are really going to afford the highest returns (with higher volatility and more risk as well). You’ll want some Jabba the Hutts in your long-term portfolio for the stability (as well as some hares for growth). The easiest way to identify the two in your retirement plan is that hares are called "small caps," and Jabbas are called "big caps." If you have small, medium, and big caps, with both value and growth stocks, then you are diversifying—a good thing for long-term investing.

 

Natalie’s Note: Companies which are experiencing rapid growth, like Google and Opsware did between 2002 and 2007, can have a higher price to earnings ratio, or even a negative price to earnings ratio when they first start out, because the earnings side of the equation is growing rapidly and will eventually bring down the P/E ratio. For your Jabba the Hutt large cap stocks, a high price to earnings ratio is not desirable because there is not the earnings growth to offset the popularity of the stock. In other words if Coca-Cola or Exxon Mobil or another multi-billion dollar, century old corporation is trading with a P/E above 20, you are paying top dollar for your stock. The Never Pay Retail investor (aka value investor) would wait for a low price to earnings ratio, beneath 12 ideally, to add the Jabba the Hutt company to her portfolio.


Green Your Portfolio.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.

August 18, 2008
Note: This article is a reprint of the August 18, 2008 mid-month update. The news in the below charts is updated, as are all of the share prices.

General Stock Market Performance

Wednesday, 1.3.2006

Wednesday, 1.3.2007

Monday, 1.2.2008

Friday, 9.2.2008

Gains 2-year , 1-year & 7 mo.

Dow: 10,847.41

Dow: 12,474.52

Dow: 13,044.12

Dow: 11,651.92

+7% & -7% & -11%

Nasdaq: 2,243.74

Nasdaq: 2,423.16

Nasdaq: 2,609.63

Nasdaq: 2372.80

+6% & -2% & -9%

S&P: 1,268.80

S&P: 1,416.60

S&P: 1,447.16

S&P: 1,286.34

+1% & -9% & -11%

Imagine…

Actress Salma Hayek and Global Green USA CEO Matt Petersen Unite to raise awareness of hybrid and electric cars. Photo © Global Green USA. 2008. GlobalGreen.org

Since November of 2007, we have seen eight months of reduced driving. New data released on August 13, 2008 by the U.S. Department of Transportation shows that, since last November, Americans have driven 53.2 billion miles less than they did over the same period a year earlier – topping the 1970s’ total decline of 49.3 billion miles. 
 Americans drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008 than June 2007. And that decline in demand is largely responsible for a decline in oil prices to $115 from the all-time high of $140 back in June.

Imagine what the price of oil would be if everyone charged their electric cars with solar energy…

That reality could be closer than you imagine.

Check out Phoenix MotorCars and Tesla Motors for two electric cars that are coming online next year. Attend the AltCar Show to test drive even more contenders (to be held in Santa Monica, in September). Even General Motors is getting into the game with their concept car, Chevy Volt.

You can plug into the emerging trend of electric cars -- which can be powered by plugging into a wall socket, with electricity generated by solar panels -- by investing in clean energy now. And the best part is that Clean Energy was the top performing industry on Wall Street in 2007 – earning almost 60 cents on the dollar, almost double the returns of the second highest performer, oil. You can get rich and green – best of all worlds – and no imagination necessary. This is a reality that some of the world’s wealthiest people are working hard to bring about. (Check out the list of people who signed up to buy the Tesla Roadster.)

Few brokers are making it easy to invest in green -- yet. However, it’s not that difficult to start "greening" your nest egg on your own. There is a new trend of green Exchange Traded Funds, two of which are listed below on the Hot News list. And there are a large number of green companies listed there as well. So, you could even own a basket of green companies from this list in your own, personalized, "green" fund, as part of your diversification strategy.

Natalie’s Note: A green fund is simply one stock that holds a number of green companies. If the fund is an Exchange Traded Fund, or ETF, the criteria for which companies will be included is determined by automatic screens (which are set up the fund manager). If it is a mutual fund, the selection is made on a regular basis, i.e. actively managed, by a fund manager.

What do I mean by "diversification?" Basically, your best bet for a successful investment portfolio is to have holdings in real estate, stocks, bonds and cash, and then, within the stock portion of your nest egg, to be diversified, so that not all of your money is in one particular industry. People who only invested in real estate are hurting right now. According to the Treasury Department, two million Americans are in the foreclosure process. Diversification helps to prevent over-exposure. Those Americans who were invested in real estate, stocks and bonds were less likely to be as speculative as those who thought real estate was a goose that gives golden eggs forever.

The financial industry has suffered the most in 2008, so if you were invested only in bank stocks, you’d be hurting. Alternatively, if you owned stock in some of the great biotech companies, like Genentech and OSI Pharmaceuticals, you’d be looking at over 40% gains this year. Since you never know definitively which industry is going to be in favor and which will tank (before it happens), it’s a good idea to be diversified enough to avoid a reversal of fortune. Over time, stocks bonds and real estate perform well, and the trick is to be in a position to take a long view and enjoy the compounding of the gains.

Gains of Real Estate, Stocks, Bonds and Gold over the Past 39 Years

Below are two sample, diversified portfolios, based upon age.

As you can see, a good strategy is to:
1. Keep a percent equal to your age safe
2. Safe investments are Treasury Bills, FDIC insured Certificates of Deposits and bonds (which guarantee a return of your money and a monthly yield)
3. Diversify the remaining part of your liquid portfolio between small, medium sized and large companies.
4. Have both Value (on sale) and Growth (explosive growth trend in earnings)

Google is a large cap, green company. Suntech Power Holdings is a mid-cap (from $1-5 billion market cap). Altair Nanotechnology is a small cap (with a value of under $1 billion). The entire solar industry is a growth industry. Companies have seen their sales doubling and tripling over the past two years. And yet, there are many green value stocks because there was a pullback on this industry in 2008. I’ve highlighted Altair Nanotechnology, American Superconductor and World Water and Solar as trading for an attractive price in the Hot News list below.

Green companies listed on the Hot News charts below:
Altair Nanotechnology (lithium ion batteries for electric cars)
American Superconductor (super cable for alt energy transmission)
Conergy (solar energy)
Emcore (semiconductors for solar)
General Electric (wind and solar)
Hoku Scientific (silicon manufacturing)
LDK Solar (solar wafers for solar panels manufactuers)
Suntech Power Holdings (solar panels)
Trina Solar Ltd. (solar panels)
World Water & Solar (solar and water systems)

Green ETFs listed on the Hot News charts:
PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio (PZD)
PowerShares Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW)

Green companies listed on the Watch List (great companies, need a better price):
eBay (online classifieds, eliminating paper)
Google (largest corporate solar installation)
Intel (green computing organization)
MEMC Electronics (silicon wafers)
Satcon (switches for clean energy)
Sohu (online media, eliminating paper)

Green companies listed on the Cooling Off List (expected to go down in value):
First Solar

Imagine…

Exxon Mobil is the largest corporation on Wall Street by market capitalization, worth over $400 billion. If you have a pension plan, 401 (k) or IRA, you probably own the company, whether you know it or not. Imagine what happens when we take half a trillion dollars out of fossil fuels (Exxon Mobil and Chevron), and invest in alternative energy. Imagine how fast the world becomes clean and green.

Imagination is the birthplace of creation. If we can create lower oil prices with less driving, why not create solar, wind and geothermal power with our investment dollars?

How to Know What You Own
If you are interested in knowing which stocks you own in your nest egg, simply log onto NataliePace.com. Enter the five letters of the stock symbol of the mutual fund into the Company Research Box on the home page at NataliePace.com. That takes you to a stock page, where you can click on Top 25 Holdings.

Once you know what you own, it’s time to invest in the world that you want to create – not simply the world that the status quo companies make it easy for you to own (by paying high commissions to the mutual fund managers). PowerShares.com, iShares.com and AMEX.com all list Exchange Traded Funds from all kinds of industries, including clean energy, so that you can make more informed decisions as to the world that you want to create with your investing and spending.

Market Commentary
Advance estimates for GDP growth for 2Q 2008 were released on August 28, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. ET.  The BEA advance estimates were much higher than estimated, at 3.3%, which was well above the .4% prediction of the Treasury Dept. By comparison, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2007 was a reasonably robust 4.9 percent, followed by anemic 4Q 2007 and 1Q 2008 GDP growth numbers of.4 and .9%, respectively. So the second quarter GDP growth numbers are something to be encouraged by.

The best news is that Americans took matters into their own hands by driving less, which meant that we imported less fuel! According to the BEA, "The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment." Exports increased 13.2%, while imports declined by 7.6%.

One thing to watch closely is that internal corporate dollars available for capital spending decreased by $41.3 billion. Industries tied to corporate spending, like information technology and computers, could be adversely affected.

Final GDP growth statistics for 2Q 2008 will be released on September 26, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

GDP Growth Rates (Projected from 3Q 2008 through 2Half 2009)

GDP Growth

Period

.9%

1Q 2008

3.3%

2Q 2008

1.5%

3Q 2008

1.2%

4Q 2008

2.2%

1Half 2009

2.8%

2Half 2009

Source: Bea.gov and Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Track Record of our Reporting
While the markets have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years. 29 companies listed below have delivered impressive gains, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11% on the year! Only eight of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting. Yes, many, but not all, of our top performers are shorts, so it’s time to brush up on your options strategies, to read the Cooling Off List and/or learn a new game.

Even during the flat year of 2007, our featured companies had outstanding performance between Oct. 2006 and June 2007! 4 out of 9 companies – almost half – doubled or more from the time they were featured to the time they were taken off of the list. 48% of the companies featured in my stock newsletter between 2002 and 2005 – 25 out of 52 companies -- DOUBLED as well, and the majority of the remaining 52% well outperformed the marketplace. (See the chart in the article, "25 of Our Companies Have Doubled," from vol. 4, issue 4, the April 2007 ezine, for a listing of companies.)

3 out of 5 Company of the Year selections more than doubled.  My 2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year have posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), respectively.  MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders that year.  Only OSI Pharmaceuticals, my 2005 Company of the Year, has lost money.  So three out of five are superperformers, one is performing well above the market and one is down. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.  (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)

TipsTraders.com continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied the #1 position. Some of our best picks include: Bioteq Environmental (BQE) +144%, Blockbuster Video (BBI) +82.5%, Genentech (DNA) +415%, Google (GOOG) +545%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +139%, LifeCell (LIFC) +180%, Macerich (MAC) +150%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains and World Water & Solar (WWAT) +181%. (Some of the best picks in 2008 were put options – on the Cooling Off list. Look there for details.)

Market Movers:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its preliminary report on the 2nd quarter 2008 GDP growth on July 31st. The numbers came in at 3.3%, which was much higher than expected and triple the growth of the first quarter. The next GDP growth report – final numbers for the 2nd quarter 2008 GDP growth – will be released on September 26, 2008.

For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section often.

The Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate currently stands at two percent. Expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to continue to ease investor worries, while monitoring inflation. The prevailing sentiment is still weak growth, a continued housing slump, more subprime foreclosures, a weak dollar, anemic consumer spending, turmoil in banks and financial services, rising gas and food prices and rising unemployment. (Yikes!)

Even with continued strain in the financial markets, the housing markets and the consumer wallet, we don’t think that another Fed Fund interest rate reduction is likely to happen on September 16th.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC Information: Interested in reading the minutes of the August 5, 2008 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov to read! According to the FOMC minutes, "Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth." The Feds indicate that downside to growth remains (meaning there is a case to be made for keeping the rates low), but are signaling that a tick up on interest rates is desirable, writing, "The upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee."

The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2008-2009 calendar is: September 16, 2008 (Tuesday), October 28-29, 2008 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 16, 2008 (Tuesday), January 27-28, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 17, 2009 (Tuesday), April 28-29, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 23-24, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 11, 2009 (Tuesday), September 22, 2009 (Tuesday), November 3-4, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 15, 2009 (Tuesday).

2. Calendar Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money managers, life coaches, economists, respected money gurus, real estate veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication date of our next ezine. Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com. Don’t miss the 21-day Get Rich and Enrich Coaching Call Series starting on September 8, 2008. Directions on how to access the call (for renewing subscribers) are posted on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board. If you have not yet renewed, renew now to get the coaching call series, valued at over $595, for FREE!!!

3. Survey Results: Who will be the next President of the U.S.? What is the most important issue facing the world today? Our subscribers are more concerned about the environment than any other issue — but the financial crisis is a close second.   Vote and view on the home page at NataliePace.com. Simply click on the survey that is currently on the home page, and you will be taken to a page with all three of the current surveys. Cast your vote there!

4. Euro interest rates: At the European Governing Council meeting on August 7, 2008, it was announced that the rates of 4.25% (main refinancing), 5.25% (marginal lending) and 3.25% (deposit facility) would remain unchanged. The next meeting and interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 4, 2008 at 2:30 p.m. CET.

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy.

Hot News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
Altair Nanotechnology (ALTI) (added back on 9.2.08)
American Superconductor (AMSC)
Melco (MPEL)
New Zealand Dollar ETF (WisdomTree ETF symbol: BNZ)
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
U.S. Gold (UXG)
Wisdom Tree (WSDT)
World Water and Solar (WWAT)

DELETIONS (Remember to take your profits early and often):
Altair Nanotechnology (deleted on 8.7.08)
LDK Solar (9.2.08)
Zoltek (8.15.08)

HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS LIST

Company NP owns? Symbol Price when featured Price 9.2.08

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Altair Nanotech-nology

RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH

No

ALTI

$1.99

$1.99

$5.45

$1.63

--

DELETED from the Hot News list ON AUGUST 7, 2008 and added back on 9.2.08. 2Q earnings (announced on August 6, 2008): For the quarter ended June 30, 2008, the Company reported revenues of $1.90 million, down from $3.07 million in the same quarter of 2007. The net loss was $5.66 million, or seven cents per share, compared to a net loss of $5.43 million, or eight cents per share, for the second quarter of 2007. The Company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by $22.37 million, from $50.15 million at December 31, 2007 to $27.77 million at June 30, 2008.

The 47 Phoenix MotorCars demo Sport Utility Trucks, which use Altair lithium ion batteries and are expected to hit the road by October, could generate up to 4 ZEV credits per vehicle for Altair, as well (10% of the 40 ZEV credits issued per vehicle). Read the Article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, issue 6.

American Super-conductor

No

AMSC

$25.96

$24.62

$47.53

$15.51

-5%

Read the article "Clean Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, issue 12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI), Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables electric utilities to replace multiple conventional copper cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground real estate available for other uses – including future power upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells. American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $634 million, with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to 50% of sales in fiscal year 2007.

Revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 were a record $39.8 million, a 101 percent increase from $19.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2007. Gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 was 29.2 percent, compared to 18.1 percent for the first quarter of fiscal 2007. Net loss for the quarter was $6.1 million. AMSC generated a record $3.2 million in cash from operations for the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash at June 30, 2008 were $131.5 million, an increase of $12.1 million from $119.4 million at March 31, 2008.

The company reported backlog as of June 30, 2008 of approximately $634 million compared with $199 million as of March 31, 2008 and $73 million as of June 30, 2007.

Revenue guidance is up, but so is the guidance for the annual loss. According to David Henry, senior vice president and chief financial officer, "Because of the significant increase in our stock valuation during the first quarter and the resulting increase in non-cash charges associated with stock compensation, the mark-to-market adjustment on our warrant and other non-operating factors, we are increasing our net loss guidance to a range of $13 million to $15 million, or $0.30 to $0.35 per share, compared with our previous range of $9 million to $12 million."

The AP and other media reported on the loss (not on the improved revenue and back orders), so the shares fell from $40 (on the 1st of the month) to $26 on Friday, the 15th of August. We love the story and the price.

Conergy

Based out of Germany

RISK: MEDIUM

No

CEYHF

$22.50

$13.55 (7.31.08)

$14.60

$96.14

$12.25

-35% &

+8%

See the Wind Power article in vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems integration.

On August 13, 2008, The Conergy Group announced that they had successfully completed the construction of what is currently Asia’s largest photovoltaic plant. The 90 million Euro project, with a peak power output of 19.6 MW, is located in the South Korean city of SinAn, southwest of the capital Seoul. Commissioned by the Dongyang Engineering & Construction Corporation, Conergy set up the plant as a turnkey solution and brought it on grid six months ahead of schedule. Dongyang has engaged the Hamburg-based solar energy company now with the expansion of the plant to a total of 24 MW – an add-on order valued alone at around EUR 20 million. Conergy intends to complete this on site yet by the end of the year.

Conergy’s CEO Dieter Ammer: "Just a few weeks ago we successfully sold the fourth largest photovoltaic plant in the world with "El Calaveron" in Spain. The quick completion of the photovoltaic plant in SinAn shows that despite our restructuring we can continue to book large operating successes – and the focus on our downstream core business was absolutely the right decision for our company."

Emcore

No

EMKR

$11.02

$4.92 (7.31.08)

$6.08

$14.98

$3.84

-45%

& +24%

EMCORE Corp (EMCORE) is a provider of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments: Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Was awarded an R&D 100 award by R&D Magazine for the IMM solar cell as one of the most innovative technologies of 2008. Received $29 million order in June 2008.

Emcore sold two million of its Series D preferred stock in WWAT to the Quercus Trust, a major shareholder of both EMCORE and WorldWater, at a price equal to $0.654 per share of common stock on June 30, 2008. The sale includes 200,000 warrants to purchase at $0.317/share equivalent. Emcore reports proceeds from the sale at $13.1 million, or 130% Return on Investment.

3Q earnings: Albuquerque-based Emcore Corp. reported $75.5 million in revenue for the third quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year.

That represents a 70 percent increase over the $44.4 million Emcore reported in the same quarter last year, and a 34 percent increase over the previous (January-March) quarter. Net loss $8 million, compared to $15 million a year ago.

Analyst Coverage was Initiated by Stanford Research 8.15.08: Buy $10.

General Electric

RISK: LOW

GREEN

No

GE

$26.69

$28.82

$42.15

$26.15

+8%

GE is providing innovative solutions to more than 350 infrastructure projects in and around Beijing, including work at all 37 official Olympic venues and 168 commercial buildings. GE’s NBC-TV is also the official network of the Olympics. Should be great exposure and great press all rolled into one. All that and dividends, trading at the 52-week low. We just couldn’t resist. GE is a big presence in renewable energy these days. Very green…

Hoku Scientific

Hawaii

RISK: HIGH

Yes

HOKU

$8.03

$5.03 (6.30.08)

$5.86

$14.55

$2.52

-27% &

+17%

2008 HOKU SCIENTIFIC, INC. Annual Meeting  of Stockholders will be held on September 4, 2008. Announced full year and 4Q earnings May 13, 2008. Since the company focus shifted from hydrogen fuel cell to silicon manufacturing in 2007, don’t expect record results. The new silicon manufacturing facility is still in the process of being built, but the company is making headway with that as well as solar projects in their home state of Hawaii. On July 30, 2008, signed $298 million polysilicon supply contract

with Jiangxi Kinko Energy Co., a silicon ingots and wafers manufacturer in China, for the sale and delivery of solar-grade polysilicon to Kinko Energy over a 10-year period beginning in late-2009.

Read "Solar Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the Oct. 2007 ezine, vol. 4, issue 10. Contracted to build a polysilicon facility in Idaho capable of producing up to 2,500 metric tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. In June 2007, Suntech entered into a supply agreement with Hoku Materials, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Hoku Scientific, to purchase up to $678 million of polysilicon from Hoku Materials over a ten year period, with the first shipment scheduled for delivery in 2009.

On 5.15.08, the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission approved a contract for Hawaiian Electric Company to purchase power from a photovoltaic (PV) power system that Hoku Solar, Inc., will install on the roof of Archer Substation at Hawaiian Electric's Ward Avenue facility. The 218-kilowatt PV system is expected to be in service by the end of 2008.To take advantage of available tax credits and financing, Hoku or its affiliate will own and operate the PV system and charge Hawaiian Electric for power at a fixed rate over 20 years.

Kinetic Concepts, Inc.

No

KCI

$38.81

$34.91

$35.95

$66.77

$34.51

-7% &

+3%

Read the article, "Beauty is Skin Deep," in vol. 5, issue 5. Has a new wound care system that is helpful in preventing infections and helps wounds heal much faster. May start seeing an opening up of one of the biggest medical care marketplaces around if the product is used for primary wounds. Currently it is a treatment for wounds that get infected and have to be reopened. Also, recently purchased LifeCell, which has explosive growth due to its alloderm product of replacing burned or aging skin. Reported 2Q 2008 results on July 24, 2008 of total revenue of $462.1 million, an increase of 17% from the second quarter of 2007. Net loss for the second quarter of 2008 on a GAAP basis, including purchase accounting adjustments and LifeCell transaction-related costs, was $2.7 million, compared to net earnings of $58.1 million for the same period one year ago. Excluding the impact of the LifeCell acquisition and related transaction expenses on the Company’s financial results, KCI’s second quarter net earnings were $70.5 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, representing increases of approximately 21% compared to the year-ago period.

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd.

No

MPEL

$6.54

$6.54

$19.09

$5.90

--

Stay tuned for the article, "No Viva Las Vegas" in vol. 5, issue 10 (next month). Operates Crown, a 6- star Resort and Casino in Macau, the trendy Mocha slot machine cafes and is developing City of Dreams in Macau, with Hard Rock, Hyatt and Dragone Entertainment. CEO/Chairman Lawrence Ho is the son of Macau gambling billionaire Stanley Ho.

New Zealand Dollar currency ETF by WisdomTree

No

BNZ

$25.17

$23.51

$25.31

$24.99

-7%

Read the article, "Foreign Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in vol. 5, issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand is the new attraction on the world currency markets.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

RISK: HIGH (U.S.)

2005 Company of the Year

No

OSIP

$35.95

$49.88

$53.71

$28.68

+39%

M&A Watch. There is a lot of M&A activity in the biotech sector. I’m keeping this active so see if there is a bid for OSIP… OSIP is a partner of Genentech (DNA) and Roche and Roche just made a bid to buy Genentech. NataliePace.com’s 2005 Company of the Year. Read vol. 1, issue 56. Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer pill," and sales have been exploding. OSIP is now testing Tarceva as an application for other cancers, including lung cancer.

The risk to this stock is that the majority of the revenues are currently attached to one drug – Tarceva. In the event of a serious problem with the drug, the company would likely be doomed.

2Q 2008 earnings on 7.23.08: net income from continuing operations of $37.2 million (or $0.61 per share) for the three months ended June 30, 2008, compared with net income from continuing operations of $29.3 million (or $0.48 per share) for the second quarter of 2007. Total revenues from continuing operations came to $91 million for the first quarter of 2008 compared to revenues of $77 million for the first quarter of 2007, an increase of 17%. The increase is due to the growth in revenues arising from worldwide Tarceva(R) (erlotinib) sales, partially offset by a decline in business development revenue. Total worldwide net sales of Tarceva for the first quarter of 2008 were approximately $267 million, as reported by Genentech, Inc. and Roche, the Company's collaborators for Tarceva, and represent a 35% growth in global sales compared to global sales of $198 million in the first quarter 2007. Total worldwide net sales of Tarceva for the second quarter of 2008, as reported to OSI by the Company’s collaborators for Tarceva, Genentech, Inc. and Roche, were approximately $292 million representing a 37% growth in global sales compared to the same period last year. For the six months ended June 30, 2008, worldwide Tarceva net sales were approximately $559 million representing a 36% increase over the same period last year.

PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio

No

PZD

$33.22

$32.35

$36.93

$25.00

-2.5%

The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (Fund) tracks the Cleantech Index™ (ticker: CTIUS), which is designed to track the leading cleantech companies, from a broad range of industry sectors, that offer the best investment returns. 'Cleantech' companies derive the majority of their business from knowledge-based products or services that improve productivity and/or product performance while reducing total costs, energy and resource consumption, pollution, toxicity, etc.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio

No

PBW

$19.92

$19.27

$28.84

$17.40

flat

Exchange Traded Fund in the green, clean, renewable energy space.

Smith & Nephew

London, England

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SNN

$55.78

$53.22

(7.31.08)

$58.62

$69.20

$51.01

+5% &

+10%

Announced 2Q earnings on August 7 at 6:00 a.m. ET. Read the article in vol. 4, issue 7. The company is based out of London, England, and with a market cap of $10.57 billion, it is a good diversification strategy for your portfolio. Additionally, SNN has a piece of an exploding marketplace in the hip resurfacing business with its premiere product, called the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing System.

Upgraded from Neutral to Buy by Piper Jaffray on 7.15.08.

Suntech Power Holdings

Yes

STP

$40.07

$33.46 (8.1.08)

$44.91

$90.00

$28.19

+12% &

+34%

Read "Solar Springs Up Again," in vol. 5, issue 4. Suntech is the official solar sponsor of the Beijing Olympics. Expect the company to get a lot of positive headlines once the beautiful bird’s nest stadium is broadcast worldwide! STP was our 2007 Company of the Year, as well as our featured Company of the Month in October of 2007. Go to vol 4, issue 1 and vol. 3 issue 10 to access those articles.

Q2 2008 results on 8.20.08: Second quarter 2008 total net revenues grew 51.3% year-over-year to $480.2 million. Consolidated gross margin increased to 24.1% for the second quarter 2008 compared to 20.3% for the second quarter 2007. Net income for the second quarter 2008 was $65.2 million or $0.38 per diluted American Depository Share (ADS).

Suntech's PV cell production capacity was 540MW at the end of the first quarter of 2008. The Company is on track to reach 1GW PV cell production capacity by the end of 2008. On July 29, 2008, Suntech announced that it will supply Italy's largest power company with 30 megawatts of photovoltaic modules.

According to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, "A vigorous demand environment in the major solar markets in Germany and Spain as well as in the emerging markets including South Korea and Italy drove strong pricing during the quarter. We expect demand to remain robust through 2008 and are virtually sold out for the full year."

2008 Beijing Olympics
"The Bird's Nest Stadium solar energy project demonstrates China's commitment to clean, renewable energy and a green Olympics," remarked Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's chairman and CEO. "We are delighted that Suntech's leading PV system has been chosen to help power the main stadium for the 2008 Beijing Olympics."

Dr. Shi noted that China's first renewable energy law, which came into effect at the beginning of 2006, is designed to increase renewable energy use in China.

Suntech is committed to becoming the 'lowest cost per watt' provider of PV solutions to customers worldwide. According to Solarbuzz, an independent solar energy research firm, PV industry revenues were approximately $6.5 billion in 2004. Solarbuzz projects that PV industry revenues will reach $18.6 billion by 2010.

Trina Solar Limited

RISK: Medium

Chinese-based ADR

No

TSL

$38.99

$27.52 (8.01.08)

$30.91

$73.06

$25.88

-21% &

+13%

Read the article, "Solar Springs Up Again", in vol. 5, issue 4. 1Q 2008 earnings on June 6, 2008: Total net revenues increased to $120.7 million, up 183.6% year-over-year and 19.0% sequentially. Net income of $12.9 million includes a foreign currency exchange loss of $4.0 million, primarily associated with the remeasurement of the non-US dollar denominated obligations in the US dollar functional currency.

U.S. Gold

Colorado USA

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$1.08 (8.15.08)

$1.23

$7.04

$1.84

-76% &

+14%

Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very risky. However, with rising inflation and weakening consumer confidence, investors could turn to gold without really looking. That could mean that U.S. Gold enjoys a push-up on the general love lust of gold, even while the company keeps prospecting to determine if they are actually sitting on a gold mine. Very risky play, with potentially high rewards.

According to a press release issued on August 6, 2008, drilling has resumed on its Cortez Trend properties. The Company's primary objective in Nevada is to discover the next Cortez Hills deposit. Cortez Hills, owned by the world's largest gold producer, is Nevada's largest gold discovery of the past decade and located just 10 miles (16 km) north of US Gold.

Their annual shareholder’s meeting was held on June 12, 2008 at 4:00pm in downtown Toronto's Ontario Heritage Centre. (U.S. Gold’s Chairman and CEO, Rob McEwen is based out of Canada, while the company is based out of Colorado.) You can see an AV recording of the meeting at USGold.com. US Gold Corp was removed from the Russell 2000 index on June 30, 2008.

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in vol. 3, issue 2, and click to hear Natalie Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on the Forbes.com Video Network.

"During the first half of 2008, US Gold undertook a detailed analysis of its prior results to determine where the greatest odds of discovering the next Cortez Hills exist. A lot of people thought we had abandoned Nevada and shifted our focus to Mexico. Nothing could be further from the truth! After making significant changes to our program in Nevada, I believe we have improved the odds of making a discovery," stated Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO of US Gold.

Westpac

No

WBK

$95.29

$91.79

(7.15.08)

$100.82

$144.04

$92.18

+6% &

+10%

Read the article, "Foreign Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in vol. 5, issue 7, for more information on why this Australian bank is the new attraction in the world.

WisdomTree

NYC, USA

RISK: HIGH

Yes

WSDT

$2.95

$2.05 (on 9.2.08)

$2.05

$3.50

$2.02

-30%

See vol. 4, issue 3, "Money Grows on WisdomTrees," and vol. 5, issue 2, "International Money Grows on WisdomTrees." This is a well-managed company that creates "smart" ETFs, which update holdings regularly, and trade on earnings instead of market cap. Trading off the boards with a former SEC chairman as one of the senior advisors (high risk investment, but a lot more credible than most OTCBB companies). Don’t underestimate this company. CEO Jono Steinberg is married to Maria Bartiromo and both have strong relationships on Wall Street, as do Chairman Michael Steinhardt and Senior Investment Strategy Advisor Professor Jeremy J. Siegel, the famous Wizard of Wharton. Also, just signed deals with Mellon and Dreyfus to create ETFs, and recently launched international currency ETFs, including the first India focused ETF.

The Company has also expanded its sales and operations functions to rapidly commercialize into the $3 trillion retirement market, by launching the WisdomTree 401(k) platform -- the first open-architecture platform to combine ETFs and no-load mutual funds. Symbols include: DEM, DRF and DGS.

Just launched New Zealand and South African currency ETFs on June 26, 2008, with the symbols BNZ and SZR respectively.

2Q Earnings report on 7.31.08: revenues increased 15.3% to $6.2 million in the second quarter from $5.4 million in the first quarter of 2008. For the quarter, the Company reduced its net loss 17.8% to $7.96 million in the second quarter of 2008, compared to $9.68 million in the first quarter.

"In just two years, WisdomTree has become an important player in the world of indexing and ETFs, launching 48 funds and gathering $4.9 billion in assets managed against the WisdomTree Indexes as of the end of July," said WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg.

As of June 30, 2008, WisdomTree had total assets of $40.7 million which consisted primarily of cash and cash equivalents of $13.7 million, and investments in U.S. Treasury and agency debt instruments of $21.8 million. Total liquidity amounted to $35.5 million. WisdomTree has no debt.

World Water & Solar

No

WWAT

$1.06 &

$0.45 (9.2.08)

$0.45

$2.52

$0.43

-58%

On 3.21.08: Dr. Frank W. Smith was promoted from COO to Chief Executive Officer and elected to the Board of Directors of WorldWater & Solar Technologies Corp. Former CEO Quentin T. Kelly retires from the CEO position and will continue as non-executive Chairman of the Board of WorldWater. CFO Larry Crawford resigned on June 18, 2008 to "spend more time with his family."

8.18.08: 1Q 2008 results: Revenue for the second quarter was $7.6 million, compared with $2.2 million reported in the second quarter of 2007. The increase in revenue was driven by the Company’s project at Denver International Airport and the recently-dedicated installation at Fresno International Airport. Net loss for the quarter was $24 million related to a non-cash expense of $15.5 million for the Quercus Trust conversion (below).

Emcore sold two million of its Series D preferred stock in WWAT to the Quercus Trust, a major shareholder of both EMCORE and WorldWater, at a price equal to $0.654 per share of common stock on June 30, 2008. The sale includes 200,000 warrants to purchase at $0.317/share equivalent. Emcore reports proceeds from the sale at $13.1 million, or 130% Return on Investment.

Read the article, "Green Hits the Mainstream," from vol. 4, issue 4, for more information.

Recently Deleted/2008 Companies featured:
Echelon +20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson +10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%, Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08) +40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek (deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits.

Deleted from the Hot News list

Altair Nanotechnology

RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH

Yes

ALTI

$2.65

$1.73

(on 6.30.08)

$2.72

$5.45

$1.63

+3% &

+57%

DELETED ON AUGUST 7, 2008. Based upon a positive income windfall of $1.1 million, with regard to the 47 battery packs which have been replaced for Phoenix MotorCars, this earnings report could exceed analyst expectations. The 47 Phoenix demo Sport Utility Trucks, which are expected to hit the road by October, could generate up to 4 ZEV credits per vehicle for Altair, as well (10% of the 40 ZEV credits issued per vehicle). Read the Article, "Golf Carts and Sports Cars," in vol. 4, issue 6. Altair Nanotechnology is the bell of the ball with regard to the batteries being used in electric cars, like Phoenix Motor Cars Sports Utility Truck. The company also received a $2.5 million order from the U.S. Navy (on 1.30.08). Shares were up over 25% in July.

ThinkPanmure analyst Michael Lew, who rates the company "Buy," said, "We believe the appointment of (Copeland) as CEO suggests Altair has resolved internal organizational matters and, importantly, filled the leadership void at the top — a necessity for any company to move forward," he wrote in a note to investors.

Genentech

RISK: MEDIUM

No

DNA

$67.79

$95.25

$82.94

$65.35

+40%

DELETED ON 7.31.08. Great biotech company with a huge pipeline of DNA-based medical treatments. Could ultimately put chemo out of business. Shares jumped when Roche offered $89/share to buy the company on July 25, 2008. At $95 (above the offer) and with 40% gains in this crazy marketplace, it’s time to take profits.

LDK Solar

No

LDK

$38.20

$33.67 (8.1.08)

$49.23

$76.75

$19.64

+29% &

+46%

DELETED on 9.1.08. Read the article, "Solar Springs Up Again", in vol. 5, issue 4. Announced that sales had tripled over last year 3Q on August 11, 2008: Revenue of $441.7 million, up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter and up 345.9% year-over-year from $99.1 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007. Annualized wafer production capacity reached 880 MW Signed nine long-term wafer supply agreements year-to-date; Total wafer shipments increased 60.8% to 191.7 MW during the quarter; Gross profit margin for the quarter was 25.4%.

September is typically a down month, so we took profits on 9.2.08. Still love LDK, however!

Zoltek

No

ZOLT

$24.25

$16.97

$51.77

$20.14

-30%

DELETED ON 8.15.08. Read "Clean Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in vol. 4, issue 12. Zoltec makes carbon fibers used in wind turbine blades. RBC Capital Markets analyst Stuart Bush says that raw materials costs for Zoltek have risen 12-14%. Additionally, there have been delays in contracts that were expected to come in. According to the earnings press release of Augsut 11, 2008, "Zoltek experienced a dearth of significant new contracts from customers in the wind energy field over the past year, which the Company attributes to concerns among wind turbine producers regarding the availability and pricing of the high-performance carbon fibers used in making the longest and most powerful wind turbine blades." Zsolt Rumy, Zoltek's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, explained the problem, saying, ""We are working closely with every one of the major wind turbine manufacturers to address their concerns about incorporating carbon fibers in their design and, while we cannot predict the exact timing, we expect to win new contracts leading to resumption of Zoltek's rapid sales growth. All the major wind turbine producers are designing longer blades and at some length, which may be different for each turbine company, carbon fiber reinforcement becomes necessary and economically competitive." According to Rumy, "The fundamentals of alternative energy generally -- and wind energy in particular -- are strong and growing, and we expect that growth will continue for many years to come. This business is not going away over the next few years. It's only going to get much bigger," he added.

The 3Q earnings report on August 11, 2008. Zoltek's net sales for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, totaled $45.0 million, compared to $40.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2007, an increase of 11.7%. However, on a sequential quarter basis, sales in the latest quarter declined from the $49.6 million of sales reported by Zoltek in the second quarter of fiscal 2008.

Net income was $2.3 million, down from $5 million a year ago. Cash on hand is $42 million, down from $122 million a year ago (largely due to the purchase of a plant in Guadalajara, Mexico. That plant began producing test quantities of acrylic fiber precursor raw material in the 3rd quarter of 2008.

All that and you have the Chairman and CEO, Zsolt Rumy, still acting as interim CFO, since the abrupt resignation on May 5, 2008 of former CFO Kevin Schott. Sounds like a recipe for continued problems.

Stocks to Watch
Some of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List.  Read carefully to identify which is which!  

Note that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List, anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share prices.

Recent Additions:
Apple (deleted from Cooling Off list on 8.1.08)
Big Lots (BIG) (added 9.2.08)
Fannie Mae
Google
LDK Solar (9.2.08)

Recent Deletions:
American Superconductor (moved to the Hot List on 8.18.08)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

9.2.08

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$156.74

 

$166.27

$202.96

$115.44

+6%

See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple Chips."

The volatility of Apple is a good example of why you need to take profits early and often this year. We deleted Apple from the Cooling Off list at $156.74, after posting great gains on the put option (an option that makes money when the stock price goes down). If we’d held on that option would be far less valuable this week… So, why not put Apple back on the Cooling Off list, now that it is close to the price that we put it on before? The current run-up may still be in play. Rest assured that while we love apple products as much as any techno-phobe, the problems with the economy, squeeze on the consumer wallet, concerns over Steve Jobs health (cancer recurrence or flu bug?) and the company’s history of not reporting pertinent information about Jobs (they reported his pancreatic cancer after his surgery and recovery) are, we believe, a potential large drain on the stock price.

3Q 2008 earnings call on July 21, 2008: The Company posted revenue of $7.46 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 34.8 percent, down from 36.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. Apple shipped 2,496,000 Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter, representing 41 percent unit growth and 43 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,011,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 12 percent unit growth and seven percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone(TM) units sold were 717,000 compared to 270,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

When Apple was added to the Cooling Off list, the Jan. 17, 2009 put cost ($175 strike price) was at $20.40.  On July 31, 2008, that put was worth $27.50, a gain of 35%. The markets are volatile, Apple is a beloved stock with a brand new product and 35% gains are the Holy Grail in 2008! Don’t expect that we’ll add Apple back to the Hot List unless the share price gets near the 52-week low of $111.

Big Lots

No

BIG

$30.28

$30.28

$34.88

$12.40

--

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from vol. 5, issue 6.

Canadian Imperial Bank

DIVIDENDS 4.31%!

RISK: LOW

No

CM

$65.88

$59.63

$108.79

$48.76

-9%

Refer to the "Banking on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2 for details on CIBC’s appeal. CIBC, like all of the financial services industry, will continue to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that might be attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect wild gains in the short term with this company, and there could be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again, the price is attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus horizon, not if you’re looking to post great gains in the next 12 months.

Citigroup

DIVIDENDS 4.31%!

RISK: LOW

No

C

$26.05

$19.00

$54.49

$14.01

-27%

Refer to the M&A Mania article in volume 3, issue 6 for details on Citigroup’s appeal. Citigroup, like all of the financial services industry, will continue to see hard times into 2008. This is a price that might be attractive for your long-term portfolio. Don’t expect wild gains in the short term with this company, and there could be more losses before you’ll see the upside. Again, the price is attractive if you’re looking at a 7-year plus horizon, not if you’re looking to post great gains in the next 12 months.

Earnings report on July 18, 2008 was a net loss for the 2008 second quarter of $2.5 billion. Citigroup is in China with Structured Investment Accounts for the Chinese consumer that would allow him/her to invest in equities or currencies, with a principal protection feature. Just a few years ago, all banks in China were state-owned enterprises. Citigroup was the first mover in the Chinese consumer equity marketplace. Purchased AkBank (in Turkey) on 1.09.07.

Total assets declined by $99 billion since first quarter 2008; approximately two-thirds from legacy assets. Headcount reduced by approximately 6,000 in the second quarter and approximately 11,000 in the first half. Talent enhanced by strong new hires, according to Citigroup.

Vikram Pandit is the CEO. His background is investment banking and hedge funds (which could explain why the world’s billionaires are happy to provide money for their turnaround). Citi is selling off "Sale of non-strategic businesses on track; announced CitiCapital, Diners Club International and CitiStreet transactions." Just launched Green Energy Community Investment Fund to initially finance up to four megawatts of solar electricity production this year. Through this new initiative, solar power systems will be installed on qualifying commercial and public sector facilities throughout the U.S., with an emphasis on underserved communities. The partner, Helio mU, headquartered in Berkeley, CA, provides solar electricity to commercial, residential and not-for-profit customers with little or no initial capital outlay through long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).

Pandit was the President and Chief Operating Officer of the Institutional Securities and Investment Banking Group at Morgan Stanley, where he was responsible for the overall management of the group and focused on the trading, sales, and infrastructure aspects of the business (2000–2005). Pandit left Morgan Stanley to start a hedge fund named Old Lane Partners, which Citigroup purchased in 2007 for $800 million.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern European mutual fund

No

EUROX

$9.36

$12.48

$19.84

$7.67

+33%

Read "Eastern European’s Renaissance," vol. 2, issue 8. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Eastern EU economy rocks. Western EU economy stalls. Your international fund should reflect the difference. Did a 3-for-1 stock split on May 23, 2008.

eBay

RISK: LOW

No

eBAY

$28.07

$24.05

$40.73

$23.52

-14%

Like Skype. The growth potential there is huge… According to the latest earnings report (7.18.08):

Skype continued its robust growth trajectory, reporting $136 million in revenue for the quarter, representing 51% year-over-year growth. Skype added nearly 29 million registered users in the quarter, ending the period with more than 338.2 million registered users around the world. In addition to growing its user base, Skype is focused on product strategies to enhance customer engagement. By comparison, MySpace has only 242 million registered users. It’s probable that new COO and Motorola veteran, Scott Durchslag, can find a way to bring more than $136 million (or less than half a cent per customer) into the company each quarter. President Josh Silverman co-founded eVite and served as CEO of Shopping.com before assuming his role as President of SKype. We’ll probably add eBay back to the Hot News list if there is a down day in the markets which makes the price more attractive.

Please contribute to our Skype conversation on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board!

Fannie Mae

RISK: MEDIUM

No

FNM

$11.64

$7.17

$70.57

$3.53

-38%

Fannie Mae was deleted from the Cooling Off list on 2.11.08, after posting losses of –50% and -56% to its share price. So, why keep the company on this chart? Mainly as a warning to you. First, you should know what you own in your mutual funds. (Fannie Mae was one of the most popular holdings, even up until 2007. It has been a colossal loser and has been on our Cooling Off list since 2002.) Secondly, how low can Fannie Mae go before the government bails it out and the taxpayers pony up the dough to prop it up?

Google

No

GOOG

$467.86

$465.30

$747.24

$412.11

Flat

Google is such a popular stock. However, it is also sporting a high P/E of 31 at a time when it posted the first decline in net income since it became a public entity. This marketplace has allowed the Google price to fall as low as $412, so don’t be in a hurry to buy back in. Google is a long-term hold in your portfolio, but for traders, the volatility of this big company can also be a chance to make short-term gains –on the both ends of the stick – as you can see… The put option performed beautifully for us, sliding from $594 (on May 1, 2008) to $467.86 (by August 1, 2008). With a down-trending market, be careful.

Intel

RISK: LOW

No

INTC

$20.27

$22.56

$27.99

$16.84

+11%

See "Apple Chips," article in vol. 4, issue 2. Intel is beating Advanced Micro Devices in products and price. On 7.15.08, Intel announced 2Q earnings of: record second-quarter revenue of $9.5 billion, operating income of $2.3 billion, net income of $1.6 billion. Forward P/E: 18.90. Next earnings 10.15.08 ish.

Intel’s competitor, Advanced Micro Devices, announced a net loss of $1.189 billion on July 17, 2008. Former CEO of AMD Hector Ruiz was booted from the company on the day of the announcement. On Feb. 1, 2007, we warned that AMD’s strategy of winning the price war by suing Intel was a losing proposition. I wrote: "There are two things that matter most in technology - product and price - and Intel is beating AMD at both right now. In Silicon Valley, the war isn't won by suits in the court room. It's won by the geeks in the garage." (Check out the Apple Chips article for that warning.) It’s important to read these articles for the companies to avoid as well as the one’s that are poised for strong performance!

Intel is a great blue chip. However, the chip business is highly competitive and the business spending is expected to moderate during the next year. Wait and see what happens to the share price!

Green: Intel and Google launched ClimateSaversComputing.org in 2007, with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption reduction by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partners to come on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices and Microsoft!

LDK Solar

No

LDK

$49.08

$49.08

$76.75

$19.64

--

DELETED on 9.1.08. Read the article, "Solar Springs Up Again", in vol. 5, issue 4. Announced that sales had tripled over last year 3Q on August 11, 2008: Revenue of $441.7 million, up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter and and up 345.9% year-over-year from $99.1 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007. Annualized wafer production capacity reached 880 MW Signed nine long-term wafer supply agreements year-to-date; Total wafer shipments increased 60.8% to 191.7 MW during the quarter; Gross profit margin for the quarter was 25.4%.

September is typically a down month, so we took profits on 9.2.08. Still love LDK, however!

MEMC Electronics

RISK: MEDIUM

No

WFR

$76.28

$47.02

$96.08

$48.88

-38%

MEMC was added to the S&P 500 in August of 2007. Read "Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in vol. 3, issue 10. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers accordingly. Volatile marketplace. Great company. With more silicon manufacturing companies coming online this year and next (like HOKU Scientific), MEMC’s operating margins (currently at 33%) could suffer. Look for this to start impacting the top line and profit margins in the coming quarters.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$27.80

$27.10

$37.50

$24.87

Flat

Great Blue Chip for your Long Term Portfolio. Waiting for lowest buy-in point.

NetGear

Silicon Valley, CA

RISK: MEDIUM

No

NTGR

$26.38

$16.66

$41.33

$13.80

-37%

2Q 2008 Earnings: Net revenue for the second quarter ended June 29, 2008 was $204.5 million, a 24% increase as compared to $164.3 million for the second quarter ended July 1, 2007, and a 3% increase as compared to $198.2 million in the first quarter ended March 30, 2008. Net income for the second quarter of 2008 computed in accordance with GAAP was $11.1 million, or $0.31 per diluted share. This compared to net income of $6.1 million for the second quarter of 2007 and to net income of $11.2 million in the first quarter of 2008.

With the crushing impact that the subprime crisis has had on the American economy (and thus the consumer’s buying power), I would be wary about Netgear’s earnings reports in the coming quarters, since so many of the company’s many products are reliant upon the consumer electronics industry – the consumer wallet. The CEO’s earnings estimates for the next quarter is below what the analysts are expecting. This company has a great CEO, great products, a low price to earnings ratio and the marketplace for broadband consumer products worldwide is still growing. Share price is getting hammered. I don’t think this trend is over yet.

Watch Natalie Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS just gave NetGear’s Skype phone its Breakthrough Award. The NETGEAR Skype WiFi phone is available online. It’s a great product that allows you to connect to Skype and call anyone worldwide anywhere there is a WiFi signal.

Theoretically. My son tried it in Europe and I tried it in Costa Rica without success, however. Perhaps there are still a few bugs and kinks to work out.

Please contribute to our Skype conversation on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board!

Ross Stores

No

ROST

$35.90

$40.26

$39.23

$21.23

+12%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from vol. 5, issue 6.

Satcon

VERY HIGH RISK

Micro Cap

No

SATC

$2.85

$2.15

$3.14

$0.98

-25%

Clean Tech. Satcon is a developer and supplier of power management and system architecture solutions for the alternative energy and distributed power markets.

Announced earnings on 8.12.08. Revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 increased by 45% to $16.9 million, up from $11.7 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2007. Net loss for the second quarter was approximately $8.0 million, compared with a net loss of $3.7 million for the second quarter of 2007. Cash and cash equivalents at June 28, 2008 were $9.8 million, down from $11.7 million at March 29, 2008.

Company is running on empty and will have to bring in more capital – likely at an attractive price to the institutional buyer, which dilutes your shares and probably even drives down the price. According to President and CEO Steve Rhoades, SATC is "reorganizing the company’s business operations, adding seasoned experts to our management team and capitalizing on our strong product set and industry-leading intellectual property.

SatCon commercial grade inverters are an integral part of Google's corporate headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the United States. On August 17, 2008, SatCon Technology Corporation announced that the company is a key member of a team of best-in-class clean energy industry leaders recently awarded the Solar Energy Grid Integration Systems (SEGIS) contract by Sandia National Laboratories. Sandia is a government-owned/contractor operated (GOCO) facility – a collaboration between Lockheed-Martin and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.

Coverage Initiated by Cantor Fitzgerald on 8.15.08 : Buy $5. However, with the low cash levels and the high cash burn, investors would be advised to wait and see what kind of capital is being brought in and at what price…

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

Beijing, China

Small Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SOHU

$46.54

$73.31

$91.50

$25.77

+58%

See NataliePace.com ezines, vol. 3, issue 4 and vol. 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs of the year in 2007. Read the articles in vol. 4, issue 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network. Sohu was selected as the official sponsor of Internet Content Service (ICS) for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Don’t get sucked into buying at high P/Es in a declining world marketplace – even for excellent companies, like Sohu. Sohu should have a great story through the Beijing Olympics and the quarter beyond, but thereafter, the advertising marketplace may wane. Don’t buy high, and always be poised to take profits when the share price has rocketed on the news.

TJ Max

No

TJX

$31.58

$36.33

$34.93

$25.49

+15%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from vol. 5, issue 6. Owners of TJ Max and Marshall’s designer discount clothing stores.

T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean

RISK: LOW

No

TREMX

$32.88

$27.04

$40.00

$12.00

-18%

See vol. 4, issue 3 and vol. 2, issue 8 for articles on why Eastern EU rocks, while Western EU stalls. Great way to diversify, as well as to add growth. Go global with the emerging countries. Avoid the countries in the EU that are stalling in economic growth, like Germany and France. International investing in the right sectors and countries pays off! Upgraded to top Morningstar return rating in its category on 7.27.07. Upgraded to Morningstar 5-star rating on 8.12.07. (We first featured this rock star mutual fund back in August of 2005!)

Wisdom Tree Chinese Yuan ETF

No

CYB

$25.54

$25.35

$25.72

$25.25

Flat

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from vol. 5, issue 2. This ETF is not available yet.

Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Hi-Yield ETF

No

DEM

$53.08

$48.74

$57.78

$40.91

-8%

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from vol. 5, issue 2.

Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets ETF

No

DGS

$44.66

$37.36

$52.71

$37.36

-12%

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from vol. 5, issue 2. Hold off. Think these holdings may suffer since so much investment is placed with international shipping companies. The high cost of oil is predicted to bring factories local – back home. Shipping companies could suffer from this trend.

Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency ETF

No

ICN

$24.28

$24.18

$24.79

$24.09

Flat

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from vol. 5, issue 2.

Wisdom Tree International ETF

No

DRF

$23.25

$20.51

$31.49

$19.98

-13%

Read the articles, "International Investing," and "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from vol. 5, issue 2. Most holdings are in international finance, including HSBC, Banco Santander, Australia, Argentina, Scotland and Lloyds of London.

Cooling Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
Boston Properties (BXP) highlighted on 9.2.08
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) added on 9.1.08
Wells Fargo (WFC) added on 8.1.08
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) added on 9.1.08

Recent Deletions:
Apple (AAPL) removed on 8.1.08
Google (GOOG) removed on 8.1.08

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 9.2.08

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

Boston Properties

No

BXP

$86.91

$104.35

(9.2.08)

$104.35

$133.02

$79.88

+20%

Get more information in vol. 4, issue 9 in the REITs article. Boston Properties looked great prior to 2007. With a pullback in profits and GDP growth, corporate spending and hiring should abate. The office building REITs should begin to come under pressure in 2008, just as they did in the 2000-2002 recession. Will be monitoring cash flow, capital spending, productivity, salaries, GDP growth and other signs of the business economy, which are the customers of Boston Properties.

First Solar

No

FSLR

$278.48

$284.56

$260.60

$317.00

$74.77

-6% &

-8%

See "Solar Springs Up Again," article in vol. 5, issue 4.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price. Thus First Solar’s operating margins were the highest in the industry – at 31.42%. That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details.

2Q 2008 results were announced on 7.30.08: Quarterly revenues were $267.0 million, up from $196.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008 and up from $77.2 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2007. Net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 was $69.7 million or $0.85 per share on a fully diluted basis, compared to net income of $46.6 million or $0.57 per share on a fully diluted basis for the first quarter of fiscal 2008.

It is seasonal for a sales pullback in the solar industry. First Solar has good strong leadership and a lot of money, but the shift in the marketplace back to silicon, which could start occurring any time now, may be too dramatic to deal with quickly and adeptly. However, because of the pumping this stock gets by people on TV, it could take longer for the general public to get the memo. Don’t purchase any short-term puts on this company. If you are interested in an option, be sure the window of opportunity is one year or more.

With a forward PE of 75.75 (on 9.2.08), First Solar is still the most expensive and thus, the riskiest investment if there is a pullback in the general marketplace. Suntech has a forward PE of 29, while Sunpower’s forward PE is 57.50.s

KB Home

RISK: MEDIUM HIGH

No

KBH

$59.00

$21.35

$48.67

$15.76

-64%

CEO Bruce Karatz resigned under pressure Oct. 2006, after SEC investigation of backdating options. Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from vol. 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. 2Q 2008 earnings were announced on June 27, 2008: Revenues totaled $639.1 million in the second quarter of 2008, down from $1.41 billion in the second quarter of 2007, largely due to lower housing revenues. Second-quarter housing revenues of $636.7 million declined from $1.30 billion in the year-earlier quarter, reflecting a 41% decrease in homes delivered and a 17% decline in the average selling price. The Company delivered 2,810 homes at an average selling price of $226,600 in the second quarter of 2008 compared to 4,776 homes delivered in the year-earlier quarter at an average selling price of $271,600. The Company reported a net loss of $255.9 million or $3.30 per diluted share for the quarter ended May 31, 2008.

Las Vegas Sands

No

LVS

$46.83

$46.83

$148.76

$30.56

--

Stay tuned for the article, "No Viva Las Vegas" in vol. 5, issue 10 (next month).

Macerich

No

MAC

$60.02

$74.81

(5.5.08)

$63.12

$93.40

$55.70

+5% &

-16%

Get more information in vol. 4, issue 9 in the REITs article.

Is in the process of securing over a billion in loans, over half of which is to pay down old loans. Five loans totaling $895 million have closed and the sixth, which is the Broadway Plaza deal, is expected to close in September. The closed financings paid off $576 million in prior loans and generated excess proceeds used to pay down Macerich's line of credit.

In the earnings report of August 7, 2008, Arthur Coppola president and chief executive officer of Macerich stated, "In light of the economy, we are pleased with the continuing strong fundamentals with occupancy levels near 93%, strong releasing spreads and solid same center growth in net operating income. In addition, we had a tremendous amount of financing activity which generated substantial liquidity and further strengthened our balance sheet. The majority of our redevelopment effort is on The Oaks and Santa Monica Place, both of which saw significant progress during the quarter."

The problem is that California’s jobless rate just hit 7.3% in July and the Oaks and Santa Monica Place are Southern California retail malls.

Total funds from operations ("FFO") diluted of $103.2 million or $1.16 per diluted share, up 11.5% compared to $1.04 per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30, 2007.

Mentor Corporation

No

MNT

$28.68

$24.47

$48.80

$23.95

-15%

See the article "Beauty is Only Skin Deep" in the May 2008 ezine, vol. 5, issue 5, when we warned that breast implant sales tend to droop during recessions. The January 2010 put with a $20.00 strike price traded at $2.00 per (or $200 per lot) on 6.30.08. 2Q results: Total net sales were $105.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2009, an increase of 10% over net sales of $95.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008. The increase in net sales is primarily attributable to international sales growth, including $6.2 million of Perouse Plastie (Perouse) sales. Perouse was acquired by Mentor in July 2007. Total net sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2009 included positive foreign currency exchange effects of approximately $1.6 million.

Total net sales were $105.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2009, an increase of 10% over net sales of $95.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008. The increase in net sales is primarily attributable to international sales growth, including $6.2 million of Perouse Plastie (Perouse) sales and positive foreign currency effects of $1.6 million. Net income was $15 million, down 32% from $22 million a year ago.

Medicis

No

MRX

$20.30

$23.62 (6.1.08)

$21.45

$34.35

$18.51

+6% &

-9%

See the article "Beauty is Only Skin Deep" in the May 2008 ezine, vol. 5, issue 5, when we warned that elective cosmetic surgery procedures tend to wane during recessions. Medicis has other new costs to contend with and a delay in their Botox® type product, which hasn’t yet been cleared by the FDA.

2Q results announced on 8.5.08 after the markets close. Revenue was $132.5 million, compared to approximately $108.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2007, representing an increase of approximately 22%. GAAP net income for the three months ended June 30, 2008, was approximately $10.0 million, or approximately $0.17 per diluted share, compared to GAAP net income of $15.5 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2007. This decrease is due to the $25 million payment to Ipsen for the RELOXIN(R) BLA acceptance by FDA.

Toll Brothers

RISK: MEDIUM HIGH

No

TOL

$37.82

$24.81

$27.72

$15.49

-34%

Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from vol. 2, issue 5 in 2005, when we first reported on REITs as a burned out sector. There is a pending securities action complaint (but not a confirmed investigation), from June 2007, alleging that Toll Brothers "and one or more members of its senior management, violated federal securities laws by issuing various materially false and misleading statements that had the effect of artificially inflating the market price of the Company's securities and causing Class members to overpay for the securities." According to the annual earnings report filed in Dec. 2007, net income had dropped to just $36 million, from $687 million in 2006. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said, "By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging of the 40 years that Toll Brothers has been in business. 1974 was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one year."

Wells Fargo

Yes

WFC

$27.00

$31.21

(9.2.08)

$31.21

$37.99

$24.38

+16%

See Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings in vol, 5, issue 9, and Wells Fargo’s Great Depression, in vol. 4, issue 12. 2Q earnings report Net income of $1.8 billion compared with $2.3 billion a year ago. Record revenue of $11.5 billion, up 16 percent from prior year and 34 percent (annualized) from prior quarter. Analysts keep telling us, however, that the real estate problems are not over and that underlying profits are eroding, most particularly in the financial sector. This is a story that continues to perplex – how Wells Fargo can generate such strong earnings when it was heavily invested in home mortgages as a revenue stream in the past. They say it is through credit card fees and non-interest revenue. The concern is that the increase in revenue in these two line items could be price gouging on customers (overdraft fees and high interest rates) who are overdrawn on their accounts and behind on their mortgages.

Wells did have a heavy concentration of loans in some of the worst areas of California, Arizona and Florida, and currently has $11.9 billion in what they are calling their "liquidating portfolio." Additionally, there were a lot of interest-only loans (20% of the total outstanding loans). The liquidating portfolio loans had a foreclosure rate of almost 5% as of December 31, 2007. Over $6 billion in loans were past due 90 days as of December 31, 2007. These stats are included in the fine print, but not the press release, of the earnings statements.

Foreclosed assets were $1.18 billion at December 31, 2007, compared with $745 million at December 31, 2006. Plus Wells has SIV and CDO exposure in their mutual fund money markets. They have already promised a bail-out of over $100 million and more may be needed.

The seesaw between $37 and $20 share price is an opportunity for a sophisticated options trader to earn great returns. Since there seem to be more potential for a big negative surprise from Wells than a big positive surprise, I’d consider buying a put at the high as a safer bet than expecting the price to continue to rise.

Wynn Resorts

No

WYNN

$95.42

$95.24

$176.14

$69.27

--

Stay tuned for the article, "No Viva Las Vegas" in vol. 5, issue 10 (next month).

Recently Deleted in 2008:
Fannie Mae was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on 6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on 8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains.

Company

Natalie Owns?

Symbol

Rate when listed

Rate when closed

52-week high

52-week low

Losses

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$184.73

 

$156.74

$202.96

$100.01

-15% (PUT gained 35%)

See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple Chips." 3Q 2008 earnings call on July 21, 2008: The Company posted revenue of $7.46 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 34.8 percent, down from 36.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. Apple shipped 2,496,000 Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter, representing 41 percent unit growth and 43 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11,011,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 12 percent unit growth and seven percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone(TM) units sold were 717,000 compared to 270,000 in the year-ago-quarter.

With a weaker dollar, high gas, record food costs and more hard hits on the American wallet, more people may be tempted to take the easy way out with regard to music and movies – illegal downloads, which are still a huge problem in the industry. When Apple was added to the Cooling Off list, the Jan. 17, 2009 put cost ($175 strike price) was at $20.40.  On July 31, 2008, that put was worth $27.50, a gain of 35%. The markets are volatile, Apple is a beloved stock with a brand new product and 35% gains are the Holy Grail in 2008! However, because the U.S. consumer’s wallet is under attack, as well as the U.S. stock market, don’t expect that we’ll add Apple back to the Hot List unless the share price gets near the 52-week low of $111.

Google

No

GOOG

$594.90

$467.86

$747.24

$412.11

-21% (Put increased more than 50%)

Google earnings: Google reported revenues of $5.37 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, an increase of 39% compared to the second quarter of 2007 and an increase of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2008. GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2008 was $1.25 billion as compared to $1.31 billion in the first quarter of 2008.

Google is such a popular stock. However, it is also sporting a high P/E of 31 at a time when it posted the first decline in net income since it became a public entity. This marketplace has allowed the Google price to fall as low as $412, so don’t be in a hurry to buy back in. Google is a long-term hold in your portfolio, but for traders, the volatility of this big company can also be a chance to make short term gains –on the short end of the stick – as you can see… This put performed beautifully.

Wells Fargo

No

WFC

$33.18

$23.75

$37.99

$24.38

-28% (83% gains on the put)

See Wells Fargo’s Great Depression, in vol. 4, issue 12. 1Q earnings report was issued on 4.16.08: WFC recorded revenue of $10.6 billion, up 12 percent from prior year, up 14 percent (annualized) from prior quarter. Analysts keep telling us, however, that the real estate problems are not over and that underlying profits are eroding, most particularly in the financial sector. This is a story that continues to perplex – how Wells Fargo can generate such strong earnings when it was heavily invested in subprimes as a revenue stream in the past. The Wells Fargo January 2009 put with a strike price of $22.50 was priced at $1.50 on 3.24.08. On 6.30.08, it was trading for $2.75, for a gain of 83%! Then the WFC price popped back up. The seesaw between $32 and $26 share price is an opportunity for a sophisticated options trader to earn great returns. Taking profits before the earnings report gets released. Think the company is still going to try and look strong for the marketplace. Not sure how much meat is behind these positive earnings that Wells keeps reporting, but July 17th could be the chance to buy another put, if they manage to have good news yet again.

  

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


NataliePace.com Calendar.

Don’t miss the 21-day Wealth Consciousness Coaching Call Series with Natalie Pace or Peak Potential’s Extreme Wealth Conference in Las Vegas!

The calendar features important ezine publication dates, teleconferences, chats, conferences and other opportunities to invest in knowledge, success, personal enrichment, prosperity and peace.

The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! Visit our calendar section often.

See below for just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar section at NataliePace.com.

Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is by Natalie Pace
Natalie Pace's first book is available for pre-order on Amazon.com now! Be the first to own it!

21-day Get Rich and Enrich Coaching Call Series
Monday, September 8th, 2008
7:00AM through 7:30AM
How would you live if you had all the money in the world? Wake up to Natalie for 21 days in a coaching call series designed to activate and maximize the creative, abundant potential in your life. Live your dreams starting right now! Sign up for Natalie’s Get Rich and Enrich Retreat now and receive this extraordinary, life-changing 21-day call series FREE. Call 866.476.7442 to register for the next retreat. Get more details on the Home page at NataliePace.com, under the Get Rich and EnRich Retreat banner ad.

Premium Subscriber Teleconference with Natalie Pace
Wednesday, September 10th, 2008
5:00PM through 6:00PM PT
Want to get in on stocks like Suntech, Sohu, Opsware, Google and World Water and Power BEFORE they make 300 to 600 percent gains? Have questions about where the stock market is headed? Get the news, information and education you need to succeed! Premium subscribers: get the call-in information on the Premium Subscribers Only section of the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board.

Agape Music Symposium and Arts Festival, LA, CA
September 10th-14th, 2008
4 extraordinary days of workshop, panel discussions, choir practices, and visioning through music, dance and spoken word ministries.

Mid-Month Update: Hot News on Cool Stocks
Monday, September 15th, 2008

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Tuesday, September 16th, 2008
The Feds meet for one-day to determine whether or not to increase, pause or lower the Fed funds rate. How are the Back to School stock sales looking?

Hail to the Chiefs Reception, Washington, DC
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008
6:00PM through 8:00PM
Join the Women's Campaign Forum in honoring the women Chiefs of Staff who serve our Senators and Representatives in Washington DC.

Get Rich and EnRich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
Tuesday, September 23rd, through Thursday, September 25, 2008
3-day Get Smart about investing beach retreat. Green and recession proof your portfolio. Learn how to pick stocks that are poised for rock star gains. Email Heather@NataliePace NOW to be one of just a dozen lucky individuals to attend this intimate training.

Tour the solar-powered Living Home, Santa Monica, CA
Friday, September 26th, 2008
11:00AM through 12:00PM
Tour the first platinum LEED rated home in the world. LivingHomes solar-powered pre-fab was installed in under one day! Don't miss this incredible opportunity!

AltCar Expo & Conference, Santa Monica, CA
Friday, September 26th, 2008
Electric, natural bas, biodiesel, hydrogen, ethanol, propane, hybrid and other vehicles. Join the debate by test driving your fave new rad car!

T. Harv Eker's Extreme Wealth School: Las Vegas!
Thursday, October 2nd, 2008
Money gurus teach you how to invest like the rich do, in this 4-day educational/blueprint changing intensive. Natalie has been a speaker for the last few years. Will she speak again this year? Hmmm...

 

 

 

 



 

 

Get Rich and EnRich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
Tuesday, October 21st, through Thursday, October 23rd, 2008

3-day Get Smart about investing beach retreat. Save your nest egg for further stock market declines NOW! Green and recession proof your portfolio. Learn how to pick stocks that are poised for rock star gains. Email Heather@NataliePace NOW to be one of just a dozen lucky individuals to attend this intimate training. There are only two seats remaining for this retreat. Call now at 866.476.7442 to ensure that you attend!


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