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Vol.6 Issue 5 May1st, 2009
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

Quote of the Month:
" While many stakeholders made sacrifices and worked constructively in this process, some did not. In particular, a group of investment firms and hedge funds failed to accept reasonable offers to settle on their debt. In order to effectuate this alliance without rewarding those who refused to sacrifice, the U.S. government will stand behind Chrysler's efforts to use our bankruptcy code to clear away remaining obligations and emerge stronger and more competitive."

From The Obama Administration Auto Restructuring Initiative
Chrysler-Fiat Alliance, on April 30, 2009


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Grading Obama and the Feds on their First 100 Days in Office.

A Conversation with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Dr. Gary Becker.

Should the Administration regulate the fees that credit card companies can charge? Should they bail out the auto industry? Should they raise capital gains taxes and tax the rich? The world’s leading economist weighs in on this and more…

Aboard Air Force One en route to Trinidad and Tobago, President Obama works on his opening remarks to the Summit of the Americas with speechwriter Adam Frankel on April 17, 2009.
Photo: White House photo by Pete Souza.

April 28, 2009. It is the second day of the Milken Global Conference, where 3000 VIP attendees gather to hear 400 CEOs, government policy makers, celebrities and money managers discuss capital solutions for health care, education, the financial crisis, real estate, terrorism, philanthropy, clean energy, infrastructure, the democratization of capital, the preservation of resources and more. But there is just one man that I’m chasing down. He’s hot on the markets, having been right on the money of exactly when the recessions and recoveries would begin and end over the last decade. He keynotes at least two lunch panels every year, since the inception of the Milken Global Conference twelve years ago.

He’s the main man here, and you’d think I was trying to monopolize Zac Efron, as bystanders and fans elbow me out of the way to grab at his hands and shove their face into his, while thanking him profusely (and sometimes even tearfully) for sharing his wisdom with them.

What characteristic could an economist have that would possibly make someone weep? While Dr. Gary Becker is clearly a free markets proponent, like so many economists before him, he is also the man who coined the term "human capital," providing scientific proof of the obvious, that when you educate your citizens and keep them healthy, they work smarter and harder. He brought humanity into the boardroom and his scientific research is the reason that corporations, like Google and others, place a priority on keeping their staff fat and happy. (Google is known for the Google 15 – the amount of weight workers gain as a result of free, healthy food.)

Because of Dr. Gary Becker’s contributions, economists and politicians can no longer talk about prosperity in the U.S. without discussing K-12 education reform. We cannot talk about the fiscal health of a nation without discussing the physical health of the individuals. And this focus on the human side of the equation is, well, touching, and it is with great effort that Dr. Becker and I thread our way through outstretched hands toward the Associates Room, where I am determined to have him all to myself for a twenty minute interview (if I’m lucky enough not to get interrupted by his colleague/fans there).

Dr. Gary Becker is well beyond retirement age, but his mind is more agile than anyone at the conference, young or old. His experience and wisdom on a wide range of subjects dwarf his colleagues on any panel. He teaches both sociology and economics at the University of Chicago, and continues to be a voracious researcher, typically with the most cutting edge statistics at hand -- such as the fact that more women graduate from college these days than men. (That fact silenced the ballroom of the mostly middle-aged, grey-haired, Caucasian men in attendance at the 2009 Milken Global Conference as adeptly as if he’d thrown a cobra in the crowd.)

Dr. Becker is, without question, the alpha dog of economics, to whom all of the other economists and pundits submit their ideology, hoping for a nod of approval. Sometimes, they get a supercilious glance and dismissive rebuttal, as happened a few years back when Nobel prize winning economist Myron Scholes suggested that having 90% bonds and 10% options in the average investors’ portfolio was a sound strategy. Other times, he appears to be channeling Jon Stewart, as he makes jokes about the naked Nobel Laureate who thinks he should be able to deduct his business suits from his taxes.

Today, he settles back into the role of teacher, however. Calm, patient and happy to explain the stock market losses that have shocked, saddened, numbed and confounded Americans, many of who now fear for their future. Never has an entire nation’s mind been on one question – "When will we start to recover?" And never has there been a person more qualified to give us guidance on the answer.

Fortunately, I don’t have to climb to the top of Delphi to gain access to the Oracle, though the price of admission to the conference is steep. (So start saving for next year’s Milken Global Conference now. It’s worth it.)

 

Interview with Dr. Gary Becker, Nobel Prize winning economist (1992), University Professor, Department of Economics and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago.

Natalie Pace: Well, here is the question on everyone’s mind. When can we start enjoying life again (i.e. when does GDP growth return)?

Dr. Gary Becker -- These are hard things to predict and I would be fooling you if I thought I knew with any certainty. But I believe that things will start coming back at the end of 2009 or the early part of 2010 -- maybe slowly at first. But I think we’ll stop going down sometime at the end of this year. It might be a little earlier, but that would be my forecast.

Is productivity some sort of a guide or signal that things are improving?

During recessions, productivity doesn’t look very good. The reason for that is that a lot of companies will have excess capital capacity and they keep workers on who are not very productive. They want to hold onto them for when things turn around. When you have excess physical capacity and excess labor, the output to deployment of capital and labor doesn’t look very good. I think productivity will resume once we have a vigorous upswing.

So productivity is not the leading indicator that we’re moving out of the recession. However, doesn’t productivity, at least partially, fuel a robust and vigorous upswing, and if so, how can we spark workers, which are really the engine of the company, to get moving?

No, productivity is not the leading indicator, but it’s powerfully related to two factors in the business cycles. When things are bad, productivity doesn’t do well. When things are good, it does better. This points to the incentives companies have to motivate individuals to innovate. Hopefully those incentives will not be adversely affected by any policies that come into place.

You’re talking about government policies, right?

That’s my concern. When you start taxing capital and investors a lot, you start to discourage innovation. That’s what you have to be careful of. On the other hand, the Administration is putting a lot of money into basic research, and that should be good for the most part.

I’ve been so focused on the financial crisis, toxic assets, market losses, foreclosures, the auto industry meltdown and cracked nest eggs that I must have missed all the talk about raising taxes. What’s being discussed? Please don’t tell me they are eliminating that beautiful 15% tax on long-term capital gains.

They are talking about raising it above the 15%, and they are also talking about taxing higher incomes and about raising the corporate income tax. Those are all counterproductive, particularly during these times, when you need to encourage investment and encourage business rather than discourage it.

What is the correlation between taxation and business growth?

A study done by Nobel Prize winning economist Edward C. Prescott across different countries showed that European countries had slower growth when they taxed at higher rates. There is a significant correlation. I don’t know the exact number, but it is significant enough to be worried about.

Low taxation certainly seemed to play into the amazing growth of Estonia and some of the Eastern European countries in this decade.

European GDP Growth Rate Compared to Tax Rate

Country

GDP Growth Rate

Tax Rate

Freedom Ranking

Estonia

11.2 percent

Flat 21%

13

The Czech Republic

6.4 percent

Flat 15% for individuals; 21% for corporations.

37

France

2 percent

40% top personal; 34% corporate.

64

Germany

2.9 percent

47.5% personal; 33% corporate; 25% on investments.

25

Source: 2009 Index of Economic Freedom

Dr. Becker: Yeah, they went to flat tax, and there are about 15 or so countries in the world using flat tax, rather than a constantly fluctuating rate of income. When you do that you end up with a low rate of taxation, maybe 15%. I think we should go to a flat tax. We would be taxing about 20-25%. Compared to what we will be doing, that seems to be fairly moderate.

And put all the accountants to work on solar energy.

Right.

The markets today are lower than they were a decade ago. The prediction for growth, once this contraction ends, is for relatively slow growth. Are you at all concerned that we could be entering Japan-like stagnation?

It’s a risk, if we follow bad policy. If we follow good policy, I think it’s a relatively small risk that we’ll follow Japan. The Feds took a very vigorous response to this recession. The Japanese hesitated for many years before they did anything. Japan thought they could solve the problem through fiscal stimulus. They ran large budget deficits. The ratio of debt to GDP went from about 0.5% to 1.5% over that decade. I hope we’ll take much less of a fiscal stimulus approach. I’m not a big fan that you can stimulate much fiscally.

Is there anything that could have been done to make our economy more stable? We’ve been through boom/bust, boom/bust over and over again in this decade.

We had the Internet bubble. The real estate bubble. But, in terms of the real economy, we were doing pretty well considering 9.11 and some other shocks that we’ve experienced. By real economy, I mean, unemployment, employment growth, GDP, that is, until this recession. This is the first really big recession that we’ve had since 1981- 1982. It may surpass that. We don’t know yet. Since the real economy has done well this decade, I’m optimistic that we’ll do well in the future. But we have to get over the recession. That’s still a challenge. We’re not over it yet.

Credit card fees have gotten out of control and American consumers are complaining to Congress and asking for regulation of the fees. Is this a good idea?

It’s a problem for borrowers. On the other hand, I hate to see the government regulating these rates, just like I don’t like to see the government regulating other interest rates. I don’t think the government can do it successfully. I don’t know enough about the ins and outs of credit card interest rates to be able to say anything in detail. But I can say with confidence that if the government gets involved it will be a mistake.

Why? Won’t people be better able to pay off their debt and start spending again, if they don’t get over-gouged by the creditors they owe money to?

The government will just mess it up and it’ll be a political football. Do you want interest rates set up by a political football? That’s how you set very low rates. Do you want to give away so much credit? You need a higher rate to compensate for the risk of default by the borrower and for the cost of managing small loans. That’s the law of supply and demand that is never violated. It’s a mistake. It’s political pandering, and I hope we don’t do it.

 

This is the first of a two-part series with Dr. Gary Becker. Tune into the June ezine, when Dr. Becker weighs in on Detroit, the automobile bailout, the Chrysler bankruptcy and more.

 

Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital."

To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his web site and blog. To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening the U.S. economy, check out the 2009 Milken Global Economic Conference web page. Dr. Gary Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference every year since it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes in April 2009.


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Hulu Your Heroes.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes a Media Stock Report Card.

The Simpsons: Waverly Hills 9021-D'oh Season 20 : Ep. 19

Despite the Recession, which is crippling the legacy media companies and killing print newspapers and magazines, online ad revenue ballooned in 2008, boasting a 10.6% increase in earnings, to a record $23.4 billion in online ad sales. (Total advertising revenue was off by 2.6% in 2008, down to $136.8 billion, according to the Nielsen Company.) After five consecutive years of record gains, Internet advertising revenue is now inching closer to topping the number one advertising revenue vehicle in 2008 -- cable television, at $26.6 billion.

Now, within the hot, there is the smoking hot. What is the fastest growing segment of online advertising today? Video! Video more than doubled its revenue stream to $734 million from $324 million, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC). Media executives predict this trend is only beginning.

"You’re going to see huge demand for high quality video advertising on the web," according to Peter Chernin, who recently announced his resignation as the President and COO of News Corp. Speaking at the Milken Global Conference on April 29, 2009, Mr. Chernin predicted that search ads would remain strong. However, since many corporations are frustrated with the returns of online display advertising, there is a migration to video as "a way to deliver emotional messages" with the hope of better results, according to Mr. Chernin.

Enter Hulu.com, Fox. com and CBS.com, three sites that are bringing television and film to the Internet. These sites have proven that viewers can handle watching something more meaningful and time-consuming than a 20-second home video of a dog skateboarding. Fans are now Huluing their Heroes and visiting CBS.com for secret scenes of Survivor, with limited commercial interruption.

Interestingly, Fox (owner of Hulu) and CBS have found a new way to monetize reruns, vintage films and even scenes that would have previously littered an editing room floor. The shows, films and out-takes are shown with 30-second ads, typically with a second watch counting down the time for you, which takes less time to watch than it does to say TIVO.

YouTube is jumping on board with their new TV and film programming. On May 1, 2009, YouTube featured the Leaders of YesterYear programming slate, with Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, an episode of I Dream of Jeanne (that features Napoleon) and a BBC special on Kings. Fox.com looks more like a TV guide than a website these days (as does CBS.com). And then there are the old school sites, like AOL and Yahoo, with their display ads and newspaper format, which is about as appealing as a dictionary to new media junkies.

As you can see in the attached Media Stock Report Card, the explosion of Internet advertising (and implosion of print and network) is already registering on the earnings reports. Revenue was down in the last quarter at Viacom, Time-Warner, News Corp. and down significantly at Sony, which lost 25% in the last quarter versus the same quarter a year ago. AOL’s advertising revenue dropped 20% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Google was the only advertising-based company that posted 6% earnings growth, year over year.

Google is still topping the charts as the most popular site on the web, while YouTube (owned by Google) pulls in at number four. Under the (former) direction of Peter Chernin, News Corp. sites , including MySpace, Hulu.com and Fox.com, are leading the web in innovative content monetization models, and Hulu.com, like MySpace before it, is making exponential strides from relative obscurity into the mainstream.

Top 10 sites in the U.S.

1. Google
2.
Yahoo
3.
Facebook
4.
YouTube
5.
MySpace
6.
MSN
7.
Windows Live (Live.com, search engine from MSN)
8.
Wikipedia
9.
CraigsList.org
10.
eBay

AOL and CNN (divisions of Time Warner) came in at #11 and #15, respectively.

Source: Alexa.com

Time-Warner, a respected, legacy content provider and owner of CNN, Time magazine, Warner Brothers Studios and more, has very troubling operating margins, at -32.02%. Time-Warner, at the insistence of Carl Icahn, invested almost $3 billion in buying back it’s own stock between August 1, 2007 and April 28, 2009, a period during which the company lost -$13.64 billion, only to have the price drop so low that they had to do a one-for-three reverse split on March 27, 2009. Ouch!

All of the major media companies, with the exception of Google, have noteworthy long- term debt. Meanwhile, Google boasts $4 billion in profits last year and almost $16 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, and no debt.

We are still smack dab in the middle of a recession, and advertising is one of the weakest segments in a downturn. So, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to invest in any company this early in the year, even though Google is clearly the leader of the pack – in earnings, in cash, in profit margins, in popularity and in potential.

MySpace, Fox.com and Hulu.com could start to carry their weight going forward, especially once the recession turns the corner. However, News Corporation cannot be thought of as a "healthy" investment at this juncture, due to all of their legacy holdings, their negative earnings in the last quarter and their negative profit margins. Additionally, Peter Chernin (the man who bought MySpace and Hulu for News Corp., lead the industry in innovation and was #2 at News Corp. for the last twelve years) is stepping down. AND the contracts for MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe and President Tom Anderson are both up for renewal in October of this year. There are a lot of "if’s" in the future for News Corp. that smart investors will take note of.

Everything Google touches turns to gold, but you don’t want to buy high. Time-Warner is a media company that nearly died during the DOT COM bust, and has never regained fiscal health. Time-Warner needs a White Knight to save the day. That happens more in movies than it does on Wall Street, especially since banks are broke, investment bankers have been categorized as "vultures," and the Feds may have spent all of the taxpayer’s money buying up the insurance companies, banks and auto manufacturers.

I am keeping Google on the Watch List portion of the Hot News on Cool Stocks list for now, anticipating that the markets may see further decline, dragging down Google’s share price. I added Time-Warner to the Cooling Off List today.

 

Full Disclosure: I do not own stock in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is, a featured teacher in the movie, Spiritual Liberation, and CEO of one of the most respected, independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has partnered content with Forbes.com, Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more.  She has appeared on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC, Time Magazine, More Magazine, USA Today, NPR and national radio shows. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Great Mother's Day Gift Ideas.

by Staff.

Every year, we do a survey, and overwhelmingly, in the past, our moms reported that they prefer stock, cash, spa gift certificates and couples’ getaway vacations over chocolate and flowers. This year, gold stocks might generate more smiles than a Bank of America stock certificate, but don’t just blow off the survey altogether and show up with daisies in your hand. Bad idea! Mom loves flowers, but she also desires something more lasting!

If your love is much bigger than your wallet, there is always a gift that is both loving and priced right. Below we’ve put together a few recession-friendly presents that should warm her heart, keep you out of the Hot Seat and not break the bank! Remember, your presence and attention is priceless, so above all, make Mother’s Day a day of celebration.

1. Couples Get Away Vacations.
Some of our favorite destinations are sporting hotel prices that haven’t been this low for over a decade. At Christmas, I was able to get a 4-star hotel in Beverly Hills, California for $135/night, using Priceline’s Name Your Own Price option. New York City, Las Vegas, Florida -- hotels everywhere! – are all offering recessionary discounts on rooms and are often throwing in a few amenities to boot. The Parker Palm Springs (where Brad and Angelina shot their W Magazine shoot while Brad was still married), a fabulous getaway, is offering $99/night during the week!

The trick to the Priceline Name Your Own Price option is that you have to know where you want to go, what kind of hotel you want to stay in and what you are willing to pay. The only thing you cannot control is the exact hotel that you’ll end up staying at. For instance, if I bid $135/night in Beverly Hills for a 4-star hotel, I know I’m not going to end up at a Holiday Inn in Riverside, but I’m not sure whether I’ll get the Four Seasons or the Century Plaza Hotel in Beverly Hills. It’s worth a try!

If you want to book the Parker Palm Springs, call 760.770.5000 before midnight on May 5, 2009 and tell them Natalie Pace sent you! Be sure to try their Muddled Lemonade (shhh.. secret recipe) while you play tennis on their signature clay court!

Helpful Hint: Priceline typically divides each major city into at least four regions. If you absolutely want to stay in one area over another, don’t bid too low. Try bidding 75% of what the hotels in that area are charging. (Priceline tells you that.) If you want to stay in Manhattan and don’t care if you are in Soho or near Central Park, you have seven chances (one for each area) to keep upping your bid until one is accepted. So you can start a little lower in that case.

2. Las Vegas.
Deals abound in Sin City. Trump Hotel Las Vegas is offering great rooms for just $89/night, and is throwing in $50 credit at the Spa! The Venetian is offering rooms for just $169/night with $150 in coupons back to you (including free Internet access, and discounts on Phantom of the Opera tickets and restaurants), if you book before May 31, 2009. Las Vegas is as well known for its shows, spas and restaurants these days, as it is for gambling. And don’t worry (too much) about the heat in the desert. The pools in Vegas are as spectacular as the showgirls.

3. Spa certificates and club memberships.
It’s worth a call to her favorite gym (that she’s been putting off joining until you have the extra dough) to see if they are offering any signup specials. A local gym in Santa Monica was giving away the month of May free to anyone who signed up! Also, if you mention that it is a Mother’s Day gift, the local spa might throw in an extra service just to get your business. Don’t be afraid to ask for special treatment! When business is hurting, as most are these days, buyers are being wooed in with lots of special incentives.

Be sure, however, that this is what she wants for Mother’s Day and that you have selected the exact location that she wants to join. Women can be pretty picky about where they want to be seen sweating. (In other words, she will have had to mention joining this place a gazillion times.)

4. A Day of Pampering.
If money is really preventing you from buying the gift of her dreams, don’t underestimate the value of just getting it right all day long! Wake her up with, "I love you," on your lips and handpicked flowers in your hand. Deliver a handwritten card featuring five things you love about her as a woman and a mother. Treat her to her favorite breakfast – in bed, of course. Jump in the car and take a long walk at her favorite destination, whether it is the beach, the lake or the mall. Gaze into her eyes at sunset. Toast to her with her favorite libation – whether it is champagne or sparkling water. And at the end of the night, could she use a foot massage? Women swooned over the scene when Kevin Costner painted the toenails of Susan Sarandon in Bull Durham. Can you beat that? Try to. It’ll pay off in spades for the Queen of your home.

There is a scene in everyone’s life that plays on the Favorites Highlight reel, and most of the time, it didn’t cost a thing. Make it your goal to achieve that.

I didn’t mention the kids here because, of course, they will join you for breakfast, or for the walk and perhaps even most of the day. But be sure to make time just for you, as her husband, to honor her and express love in a more meaningful way than you ever have before.

5. Stocks and Cash
Does she have her own brokerage account? Many of the online discount brokerages will let you set up an IRA online with a pretty small amount of money. If you want to really impress her, set up the account and do a monthly auto-deposit as well (which can be as low as $100, if need be). Include my book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is and a subscription to the NataliePace.com ezine so that she learns how to get rich, while enriching the world, with her newest piece of financial freedom! That’s a pretty empowering gift package for a very reasonable price. (The book is just $17 online and the subscription is specially priced at $75 for the year. See below for details.)

9 Months Free When You Purchase 3 Months of the NataliePace.com Ezine
We’re offering a special on the ezine of nine months free when you sign Mom up for three months. So she’ll receive ongoing support all year long! Simply go to the JOIN NOW link at NataliePace.com, and register for three months. Pay $75 on your credit card. Then send Heather@NataliePace.com a quick note asking for a Happy Mother’s Day email that you can forward to your beloved. Heather will send you the Welcome email, and add nine additional months of subscription in the back office.

You can buy Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is at your local book store or online for a great gift that satisfies her desire to build a better life and a better world at the same time.

6. Get Away Vacation and Stock Retreat rolled into one!
Join Natalie Pace for a 3-day Get Rich and Enrich Retreat June 11-13, 2009. You and your beloved will get three full days of hands-on abundance, prosperity and investing training from Natalie Pace, a #1 stock picker, personally in a board room setting with just fourteen people. The retreat takes place in the beautiful, sunny beach town of Santa Monica, California, and Natalie does some of her training right on the sand, while watching the sunset.

Remember that Natalie saved Bill and Nilo’s nest egg with a pie chart that she drew up on a napkin. Imagine the easy-to-follow wisdom she can impart to you in 3-days!

This is truly a retreat where couples (and singles and family members) get to have fun, expand their wisdom and be a little adventurous all at the same time. Mom will love it! Many women, including the Green Goddess Investment Club, who are earning 40-150% gains over the last eight months, got their start at the Get Rich and Enrich Retreat.

Register NOW, before Mother’s Day, and receive Early Bird Pricing of just $1995 per person or $3,300 per couple. There are only four seats remaining at this retreat, so CALL 866.476.7442 NOW TO BOOK YOUR SEAT!

Remember that Mother’s Day is as important to get right as the engagement ring was when you asked your wife to marry you. Splurge a little this year, if not in money, then in creativity! Plan something special.

If you are a mom, please weigh in on your favorite gift at the survey on the home page at NataliePace.com. That way your hubby and kids have a chance of getting you what you really desire. (Just leave the page open on your computer strategically, so that they can see the survey results…) Check out what this year’s survey reveals if you’re looking to buy Mom something she’ll really appreciate!


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Ask Natalie: Should I Start a 401(k)?

I’m 54 and don’t have any retirement plan…

Dear Natalie:

I just started a new job and my employer is offering me a 401k auto deduction of 3% before taxes beginning May 1, if I choose. How do I know if this is the best choice for my money to invest?  I have no current investments or retirement accounts......... am 54 years old and need to make some wise safe investment decisions........ Can you please advise?

Signed Better Late Than Never?

 

Photo: Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. (C) 2008 Stylist and Makeup: Arlene Hylton-Campbell.

Dear Better Late Than Never!

Yes. Read my new book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is, to learn all of the reasons why, but yes, to 401(k), yes to investing, and, yes, get started right away. Did you know that if you were 18 and you only earned $14 an hour, but put 10% into a 401k religiously, and never got a raise, you’d be a millionaire before you were 50? It’s best to start the investing habit early, but never too late to start doing the right thing! Here’s how it works.

The first year you would contribute $2,890 and your returns would be, on average, $347 (or 12%). The second year, you contribute another $2,890. Your new principal is $6,127. Your gains are $735. By the 6th year, you are making as much in gains as you are contributing each year. By the 10th year, you have over $50,000, and are earning $6,082 in gains that year. This is based upon an average annual return of 12% in stocks, which is what stocks have been doing most of this century. And even if you don’t get those kind of gains (keep reading because this is a consideration), you still have monthly 401(k) contributions going toward your Fund My Dream Life account, instead of poured down the drain of your spending habits.

Now, you might say, stocks are doing terribly and you’re afraid and everyone around you is telling you it’s the Apocalypse and the markets are going to continue to drop! Acckkk! But, you don’t have to lose the money you put in your 401(k). Most plans have a "safe" or at least safer allocation, such as Treasury bills, short-term government bonds or the money markets, which are not invested in the "stock market."

There have been many opportunities over the last ten years to make a lot of money in the stock market, without a lot of time or attention. You do need the "know how," however, which is why it’s important to read my book – because buying and holding mutual funds doesn’t work in a slow growth economy (which we’re in). The last ten years has seen a series of booms and busts, where you could have earned a lot of money if you were 1) properly diversified in ETFs (instead of mutual funds), 2) rebalancing once a year and capturing your gains, and 3) keeping at least a percent equal to your age safe. (If you just bought and held and checked off boxes blindly, you would have lost a little money.)

You need to learn how much to keep safe and how to properly diversify your holdings, so that you easily can see and capture gains each year. Don’t get scared, it’s as easy as a pie chart and that is outlined in my book also (page 91, I believe). For now, just start your 401(k) and put most or all of it in the safest place you can, such as Treasury Bills or a short-term government bond fund.

Get started in the habit of investing in a better life and then make it your job to start learning just four other important things.

  1. Get educated so that your money can really gain while you sleep (no fuss, no fret, no babysitting). Reading my book is a great start. Coming to my retreat means that in three days, you’ll set up your retirement blueprint for life! Buy Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is anywhere that books are sold. Get more information on my next Get Rich and Green Retreat on the home page at NataliePace.com. There are only four seats remaining so if you’re interested, call 866.476.7442 right away to reserve your seat.

    We have a special on the price now through May 15, 2009. Subscribers receive the Early Bird Pricing and a $2000 gift of a 12-month premium subscription. That way you get the 3-days of education and then ongoing support all year long, in the form of monthly ezine, mid-month update and quarterly teleconferences with me.

  2. Ask your employer if they do a match! Many employers do. That’s an instant raise.

  3. Figure out how to put 10%, not just 3%, into your retirement plan. If the 401(k) is capped at 3%, then go to an online discount brokerage and find out other tax-protected plans that you might qualify for, including IRAs (SEP, ROTH, traditional), health savings accounts, and more. Tithe to yourself and watch how your Buy My Own Island Plans grow quickly! 401ks, IRAs and health savings accounts all have tax advantages, and at least part of this is money that you would be paying Uncle Sam. So, it’s not more money being spent. It’s a check you write to yourself instead of the IRS at the end of the year.

  4. Pick a better name. No one wants to start or grow a retirement account or 401k. Everyone wants to start and nourish his or her Buy My Own Dream House fund or the Send my Grandchildren to College account. Pick a goal of why you want to start earning money while you sleep, and what exactly you will do as you gain more assets! This will inspire you to keep contributing to the plan, maximizing the performance, adjusting as needed for greater gain and then reaping what you profit once you’re ready to purchase one more piece of your dream life!

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is, a featured teacher in the movie, Spiritual Liberation, and CEO of one of the most respected, independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has partnered content with Forbes.com, Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more.  She has appeared on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC, Time Magazine, More Magazine, USA Today, NPR and national radio shows. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

.


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Change.

Change.

by Paul Woods, President and CEO, Odyssey Advisors.

"The party that pretends to believe in limited government and free market solutions took office in 2000 with a surplus and left taxpayers with a trillion dollar deficit and the economy in shambles."
-
Paul Woods

President Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States.
Photo: by Pete Souza

Not since Jimmy Carter left office has an incoming U.S. President inherited more economic problems than Barak Obama. The standard bearer for the party that pretends to believe in limited government and free market solutions took office in 2000 with a surplus and left taxpayers with a trillion dollar deficit and the economy in shambles. Citizens of the U.S. saw a record amount of their wealth destroyed in 2008, and a little common sense could have prevented most of this damage. Change was inevitable.

President Obama’s inauguration produced adoring crowds, fawning press coverage, and the largest inaugural day drop in the stock market in history. Since then, gold has gone to new highs and the stock market has lost over 20% of its value, which is also unprecedented for a new president. Investors appear to be saying that different isn’t the same as better and piling a lot more debt on future generations isn’t an exciting new change of direction.

What’s billed as change looks a LOT like the Clinton administration with a new guy in charge. During the campaign, the implied promise to voters was change would turn the economy around sooner rather than later. Once Obama was elected, however, backpedaling to lower expectations began immediately. Now, we’re being told that turning around the economy may take a long time and things will probably get worse before they get better.

Natalie’s Note: The Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P500 index have lost 7% and 4% respectively since the beginning of the year, while NASDAQ is up 7%, as of May 4, 2009!

Even though a stimulus package in 2008 failed to prevent the economy from going into a recession a few months later, a bigger version was passed in the first quarter of 2009 amid warnings of the dire consequences of inaction. While our infrastructure has been neglected too long and needs to be modernized, most of this bill consists of pork barrel spending and one time tax refunds for people that don’t pay taxes, paid for by taking more money from the people that create jobs in this country. Investors considered the implications of this new "stimulus" bill carefully, and the stock market immediately went to new lows. To add insult to injury, we were getting lectures from the French about fiscal responsibility as the quarter ended.

In the first quarter of 2009, the value style was a disaster, larger companies did better than smaller ones, and investing in growth stocks produced the least damage. For reference, here’s the stock market segment scorecard for the first quarter of 2009:

Symbol

12/31/08

3/31/09

% Change

All Cap Growth

RAG

301.54

286.50

-4.99%

All Cap

RUA

520.60

461.14

-11.42%

All Cap Value

RAV

642.00

527.91

-17.77%

MidCap Growth

RDG

249.49

240.24

-3.71%

Large Cap. Growth

RLG

371.18

354.15

-4.59%

MidCap

RMC

592.43

536.01

-9.52%

Small Cap. Growth

RUO

257.07

231.51

-9.94%

Large Cap.

RXA

487.77

433.67

-11.09%

Small Cap.

RUT

499.45

422.75

-15.36%

MidCap Value

RMV

649.34

549.21

-15.42%

Microcap

DFSCX

8.31

6.86

-17.45%

Large Cap. Value

RLV

487.05

401.55

-17.55%

Small Cap. Value

RUJ

735.37

586.68

-20.22%

Source: Telmet Orion

Within these market segments, any industry with tech in the name outperformed everything else and gold stocks also did well. Interestingly, handgun producers were the top performing sub-industry. Large financial companies are now facing regulatory micromanagement and, if they pay bonuses to keep their top people, all hell will break loose in Congress. These and REITs continued to get pounded. For reference, here’s the stock market index and industry group scorecard for the first quarter of 2009:

Symbol

12/31/08

3/31/09

% Change

Dow Industrials

INDU

8,776.39

7,608.92

-13.30%

Nasdaq Composite

COMPN

1,577.03

1,528.59

-3.07%

S&P 500 Index

SPX

903.25

797.87

-11.67%

Russell 3000

RUA

520.60

461.14

-11.42%

Technology

IXT

154.49

156.75

1.46%

Biotech

BTK

647.17

640.85

-0.98%

Basic Industries

IXB

235.05

228.88

-2.62%

Health Care

HCX

309.41

283.04

-8.52%

Consumer Services

S25

169.41

154.82

-8.61%

Clean Energy

ECO

86.36

77.46

-10.31%

Energy

IXE

479.57

426.79

-11.01%

Consumer Staples

S30

246.66

218.77

-11.31%

Utilities

IXU

295.11

259.79

-11.97%

Commercial Services

S2020

121.60

99.73

-17.99%

Capital Goods

S2010

222.44

171.12

-23.07%

Transportation

TRAN

3,537.15

2,684.08

-24.12%

Financials

S40

168.79

119.01

-29.49%

REITs

RMZ

509.21

335.52

-34.11%

Source: Telmet Orion

In the bond market, interest rates rose a bit and there was a continued flight to quality in the first quarter while liquidity continued to be a problem in other sectors. U.S. Treasury yields are currently at unsustainably low levels and have prompted the Federal Reserve to announce they will purchase $300 Billion in Treasury securities in the open market in an effort to improve credit conditions. Treasury debt is expected to be around $1 trillion higher this fiscal year than last, and the Fed will be absorbing a significant share of this new supply.

Current Yield

12/31/08

3/31/09

% Change

90 day Treasury Bills

0.11%

0.21%

90.91%

5 Year Treasury Notes

1.55%

1.67%

7.74%

10 Year Treasury Notes

2.25%

2.71%

20.44%

Source: Bloomberg LP

Credit quality has driven returns during the quarter. U.S. Government Agency spreads narrowed versus Treasuries and the liquidity in corporate bonds improved slightly. Municipal bond yields are still higher than Treasuries for almost every maturity, which has historically been a good buying opportunity. The flight to quality has driven Treasury bonds to overvalued levels and there is currently a gradual shift from credit risk to interest rate risk in the bond market. This should allow other sectors to perform better from here. As a result we are keeping our exposure diversified to help reduce interest rate, credit, and other risks. We are investing in the higher-quality sectors whose yields have increased significantly such as Agency bonds, Municipals, and investment-grade corporate debt in strong companies better able to survive the economic downturn.

As the first quarter ended, the stock market rallied from its lows and investors were wondering whether they had seen the bottom. Our crystal ball is currently in the shop for repairs, so we’re not going to attempt an answer. However, interest rates are still low, so bonds aren’t much competition. Earnings estimates for 2009 appear to be stabilizing after being cut dramatically a few months ago. Stock market valuations are in the low end of their historic range and there is currently a mountain of cash on the sidelines. As a result, if earnings finally start meeting or beating expectations, the downside risk is probably limited from this point. However, if earnings miss estimates again in the first quarter of 2009, investors may end up wondering why they forgot the saying "sell in May and go away."

 

About Paul Woods
Paul Woods is the President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Odyssey Advisors. He has over 35 years of experience in the investment management and research analysis of common stocks. He manages the Odyssey Clean Energy Portfolio. Paul has done a great deal of independent research on clean energy and has written multiple articles on various segments of this industry. He can be contacted at pwoods@odysseyadvisors.com.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Copyright © 2009 by Odyssey Advisors LLC.


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Bearing Up in a Bear Market:

You Still Need to Open Your Account Statements.

FINRA.org Investor Alert.

Especially in a down market, investors may be tempted to try and avoid the trauma of seeing the reduced value of their holdings by not opening their statements for their brokerage, mutual fund, or 401(k) or other retirement plan accounts. It has even been suggested that avoiding looking at your statements may be a good way to respond to turbulent financial times, because it prevents you from selling out at the market bottom and foregoing the expected—but unpredictable—turn around in the markets.

Don't Check Out on Checking Up
This advice may be comforting—and may even help keep you focused on the long-term performance of your investments—but ignoring your statements can blind you to problems in your accounts other than their performance. No one can protect your accounts like you can, and so you need to open your statements and see what is going on in your account.

Looking for Trouble
Here's a checklist to help you identify potential problems you may need to respond to promptly:

Verify the activity in your account:

  • Are there any trades or cash transfers that you didn't authorize?
  • Are the trades reported consistent with your confirmations?
  • Are any cash withdrawals or additions not accurate?
  • Are the size and price of all purchases and sales correct?
  • Are all anticipated dividend and interest payments reflected?

Review your account holdings:

  • Are all securities and cash positions and any debits or credits accurately reflected?
  • Does your portfolio agree with your diversification and asset allocation objectives?

Confirm basic account information:

  • Are any address changes accurate?
  • Are there any charges or fees that you don't understand?
  • Are any important changes in your relationship with the firm or your broker reported?
  • Are there any notices that require a response?

Don't Snooze and Lose
Some of these problems, such as incorrect electronic fund transfers, must be identified to your stockbroker or banker within 60 days after they occur or you waive your right to a correction. Still others may result in actions by your firm you don't want and—if you don't act promptly—take time, effort, and cost to undo. Immediately question any transaction or entry that you do not understand or did not authorize. Don't be timid or ashamed to complain. Here are the steps you should take:

  • If you think it's a minor mistake, talk to your broker. This may be the fastest way to resolve the problem.
  • If you can't resolve the problem with your broker, or you think your broker engaged in unauthorized transactions or other serious misconduct, report it to the firm's management or compliance department in writing.
  • If you and your firm still can't resolve the problem, contact us. You can file a complaint using our online complaint form. If you are seeking to recover money, you may want to consider arbitration or mediation.

Bottom Line
Always check to see if there are problems in your statement that you can—and need—to correct. While it may feel better to avoid seeing the losses in your portfolio from the bear market, you can be opening yourself to problems if you don't open your statements.

 

To receive the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information sign up for Investor News.


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The Treasury's Plan to Buy Bank Assets.

by Dr. Gary Becker.

 

One good aspect of the Treasury's plan to enlist the private sector in buying mortgage-backed and other bank assets is that it reduces the uncertainty-if it is implemented! - about what the government plans to do further in aiding banks. Starting with the vacillations of Henry Paulson, the former Treasury Secretary, the federal government's efforts to help banks have lacked a clear direction, and have wasted a lot of taxpayers money. Especially during a serious recession (I will call this a recession, not a depression, until the cumulative fall in GDP equals or exceeds 8-10 percent-so far the fall in US GDP has been about 2%, and world GDP has hardly fallen), consumers and businesses can cope much better if they know what the government plans to do. They can adjust much more easily to known government policies, even if they are not good policies, than to changing policies that lack any direction.

A major criticism of early plans for the government to buy bank assets through an asset auction was that the government would overpay for the assets since they did not know the worth of the assets offered to them. Although that difficulty might be overcome, the Geithner proposal uses government money to encourage hedge funds, pension plans, and other financial institutions to buy bank assets in order to use private competition to determine the worth of these assets. Hedge funds and other financial institutions do not want to overbid since that would reduce their profits from any future appreciation in the value of the assets bought. Competition among different financial intermediaries for these assets would prevent them from underbidding since they would then not be able to buy the assets.

To encourage private participation, the Treasury Secretary is offering bidders very generous terms. If say a hedge fund bids $100 for an asset, the fund would have to risk only about 7%, or $7. Another 7% would be risked by the Treasury (i.e., from taxpayers), and the rest would be a loan guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC). If the asset rises in value over time, the Treasury and the hedge fund would share the profits equally, while the hedge fund's losses if the price goes below $100 is limited to the $7 it puts up, no matter how low the price goes.

Therefore, the downside loss to private companies in this example would be sharply limited by the equity they put in, while the upside gain could far exceed their initial equity. This means that hedge funds and other funds would find riskier assets very attractive, and they would bid more for them than for less risky assets with the same expected return. For example, suppose one asset had a 100% chance of being worth $100 in the future. The expected value of the asset is obviously $100, but a private fund would bid $107 because the Treasury would pay $7 of this bid.

Suppose, on the other hand, there is another asset that has a 10% chance of appreciating to $1000, but it has a 90% chance of becoming worthless. The expected value of this asset is also $100, like the safe asset, but in my example it is worth much more to bidders under the Treasury's terms since the FDIC would pay the successful bidder 86% of its bid price if the asset became worthless. It can be directly shown that private funds bidding their expected value would then bid about $242 for this asset, which far exceeds the asset's overall expected value of $100 because the FDIC is guaranteeing most of the loss, and the fund would collect half the appreciation.

Even if it were desirable to subsidize private funds to bid for bank assets, is it wise to structure the subsidy in this way so that the bidding is skewed toward more risky assets? One reason for doing so is that assets with greater variability in their future worth are presumably harder to value. Hence banks holding these assets might value them more than other financial institutions would. These would then be the type of assets that banks would be reluctant to sell in an unsubsidized market since market bids would be below bank estimates of their value. The Treasury's approach raises the willingness to pay by hedge funds and other financial institutions for precisely such risky assets.

Posner's proposal is to do more of what the government did earlier; namely, lend to banks in return for preferred stock in the borrowing banks. This has the advantage of being simpler than the Treasury's convoluted proposal, and Posner gives some other advantages. However, I would worry a lot that the government when they hold greater amounts of stock would try to micromanage banks even in greater detail than they are already doing. Congress and the president have complained loudly about bonuses, pay levels, golf outings, and other business activities, and legislation was introduced to limit pay and perquisites. Under Geithner's plan, Congress might have less incentive to micromanage the decisions of hedge funds and others who buy bank assets since the government would have an equity interest in particular assets rather than an equity interest in the overall profits of these funds.

However, Congress would also complain a lot if hedge funds and others made a large profit from the assets they bought with government guarantees. Perhaps this is why the Treasury's proposal gives such a huge subsidy to the funds that would bid for bank assets. In the absence of large subsidies, leaders of these funds would be reluctant to expose themselves to the torrent of criticism and interference from Congress and perhaps also the President. Nevertheless, it is highly worrisome that taxpayers would become committed to such potentially large additional subsidies to the financial sector.

Addendum to the Treasury's Plan to Buy Bank Assets-Becker
Above, I give an example to illustrate the Treasury's plan to buy the "toxic" assets of banks. Since I left a few quite important implications of the example unclear, this addendum will consider the same example in more detail.

Recall that the Plan would encourage hedge funds and other financial institutions to bid for bank assets. These institutions would only have to put up about 7% of their bid price since the Treasury will supply another 7%, and the FDIC will loan the remaining 86%. If assets appreciate in value over the bid price, the Treasury and funds share the profits equally after the FDIC is repaid. If the asset declines in value, funds are only liable for 7% of the decline, and the FDIC and Treasury absorb the rest.

In my example, there is a 10% chance that an asset will be worth $1000, and a 90% chance that it will be worthless, so that the full expected value of the asset is $100. Assuming competition among funds forces them to bid the expected value of this asset to them, how much will they bid? When the asset pays off $1000, a fund would get half the difference between $1000 and 86% of its bid price, while if the asset becomes worthless they would be compensated for everything but 7% of what they bid. The expected value of these outcomes is approximately $243, and that would be the price that competition forces hedge funds and other funds to pay for the assets. Since the expected value of the asset is only $100, government subsidies would encourage funds to bid about 2 1/2 times the true worth of the asset!

The government would pay the difference between the bid price and the worth of an asset, or $143 in this example. Contrary to many assertions made about the Treasury Plan, this subsidy does not on average go to successful bidders since the expected cost of the asset to them equals the expected value of the asset to them. Of course, the luckier buyers of these assets can make a lot of profits, and they could be subject to Congressional wrath that they profited at the government's expense. The $143 subsidy goes to banks, for they would receive almost 2 1/2 times the worth of their "toxic " assets.

Perhaps good reasons motivate the government to use this indirect way to subsidize banks rather than to give them the subsidy directly. However, it is a strange program indeed where banks get subsidized in proportion to how many "bad" assets they hold. This will make banks wish that they had made even greater mistakes, and held more assets that are likely to be truly worthless. However, these worthless assets could be worth a fortune to banks.

 

Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital."

To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his web site and blog. To hear more of his research and recommendations for strengthening the U.S. economy, check out the 2009 Milken Global Economic Conference web page. Dr. Gary Becker has been a keynote speaker at the conference every year since it began and spoke at two of the luncheon keynotes in April 2009.


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Spring Cleaning Your Body.

by Carolyn Schropp BS, NC, Functional Nutritional Consultant and Educator at HealthWalk©

It happens every spring. We fling open the windows, put away our winter coats, and suddenly get the urge to clean the house. But do we ever think about "spring cleaning" the toxins from our body?

Detoxifying in the spring is an important part of the traditional ayurvedic medicine seasonal routine. Spring is the kapha season; because the wet and cool weather reflects the moist, cool, heavy qualities in the body that ayurveda believes predominate during this time of the year.

Biologically, nature supports cleansing of the body in the spring. In winter the digestive fire is high, and people eat more sweet, rich and heavy foods. Mostly we are unable to assimilate these hard to digest foods so the undigested wastes and toxins accumulate in our bodies. If you don’t assist these toxins in moving out of your body, you can become prone to flu, colds, cough or allergies. You might feel unusually fatigued, sluggish or drowsy after a meal. Your skin can be less radiant, heavier, and oilier. If the toxins are allowed to keep accumulating in the body, even more serious illnesses can result.

Spring is the best season for detoxification; nature is already trying to clear out the toxins. It’s the time of year to help the body efficiently detoxify. How do you help the body with its own spring cleaning?

Here at HealthWalk we have several modalities to support you in this process and we will work with you to tailor a program for your personal needs. Vital Hematology live blood analysis can show the condition of your blood, which circulates throughout the body once every 70 minutes. An accurate picture of the body’s overall health can be revealed – from parasites, microorganisms, heavy metals, stress and vitamin deficiencies can be seen among other stressors.

Functional Nutritional Counseling, Adrenal and Hormonal Analysis and Biomarkers Analysis can show you how the various crucial adrenal, hormonal and biomarkers balances in your body are operating. Together the HealthWalk team will then work with you to regain and maintain the optimal equilibrium to sustain your health through supplementation, nutrition and lifestyle adjustments.

Eating organic might be more expensive but well worth it. Committing to eating only foods that haven’t been sprayed with pesticides is an immediate way to dramatically cut your exposure to toxins. On an average those of us who eat conventional fruits and vegetables consume over a gallon of neurotoxins per year from pesticides on the food. Another great benefit of eating organic produce is that they are packed full of more nutrients and anti-oxidants than its chemically showered alternative.

The liver is the second largest organ in the body. This organ’s job is to process and filter the toxins in the body. Because of the many chemicals, additives and pollutants it deals with every single day, our livers are chronically over worked. The problem with this is that the overworked liver can let toxic chemicals, heavy metals, excess sugars and hormones out into the blood stream and body, contributing to and/ or causing health problems such as PMS, skin rashes, fatigue, obesity, cancer and more. Treat your liver well and it will do its job. Here at HealthWalk our nutritionist will work with you on how to detoxify the body through proper nutrition and supplementation.

You are what you eat. One of the best ways of detoxing your body is to eat good, nutritious and detoxifying foods. HealthWalk’s nutritionist will help take the guesswork out of what foods to eat to properly detoxify. Sticking to whole foods and cutting out processed foods can really help. Processed foods are full of additives and the plastic and tin cans that processed food comes in can leach dioxins and metals like aluminum into your body as well as produce/deposit pseudo-estrogens in men and women which mimic the hormone estrogen, creating hormonal imbalances which can lead to cancer among other diseases.

At HealthWalk we can analyze and support the rebalancing of your hormones based on saliva hormone testing (Hormone/Adrenal Analysis). World Health Organization has found that 100% of the population has hormonal imbalances and that a good percentage of our illnesses are due to this factor. It is now apparent that resolving hormone imbalances is one of the keys to good health and wellness.

A client came into HealthWalk complaining about all of the medications his physician has him taking. He has developed several health problems from some of the medications including night sweats, fatigue and extra weight gain. He worked with our Vital Hematologist and Functional Nutritionist to analyze his overall health so that there is a comprehensive plan to support his wellbeing. They put him on a natural detoxification program, suggested a few natural supplements and recommended some dietary changes to account for the effects of his medications. He has now lost weight, gained his energy back and his night sweats are gone.

Detoxifying your body is a wonderful gift to give yourself this spring. You will rid yourself of the winter sluggishness, lose weight and feel more vibrant. Come to HealthWalk we can help you detoxify and help you feel healthier and happier too!

At HealthWalk© we are dedicated to working with you to provide the most comprehensive picture of your health so that you are empowered with the knowledge and solutions to achieve and maintain vibrant health.

HealthWalk©, the leading edge, non-invasive integrated healthcare center and products company, has specially priced Health and Wellness Products and Services for NataliePace.com subscribers. HealthWalk is offering 10% discount for NataliePace.com subscribers on all individual HealthWalk products and services. Please mention the discount code, HWNP upon ordering.

Call HealthWalk at 877-255-4703 or email info@healthwalk.com

www.healthwalk.com
HealthWalk, 5825Avenida Encinas suite 111, Carlsbad CA 92008
You can lose everything in life and make it all back - With one exception… Your Health

HealthWalk© offers customized, non-invasive and effective support to enable your body’s own innate powers to regain and enhance health, performance and healing. HealthWalk is dedicated to supporting and empowering you to achieve and maintain vibrant wellness. HealthWalk is a non-invasive, integrative healthcare facility with a global umbrella of leading edge technologies, services, natural supplements and products backed by over 20 years of research. HealthWalk is based in Carlsbad, CA.

www.healthwalk.com Phone 877.255.4703 info@healthwalk.com

 

Please note: This article has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. The information herein is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

HealthWalk is a separate entity from NataliePace.com and NataliePace.com offers no guarantees of, nor do we endorse, their products and/or services.

 


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Chief Everything Officer (aka Mom):

by Natalie Pace.

Cast Off Your Burdens and Really Enjoy This Mother’s Day!

Photo Credit: Doug Mazell Stylist/Makeup: Arlene Hylton-Campbell

As the Chief Everything Officer of my home, which most mothers are, I often thought that certain people in my life were letting me down. This person owed me a phone call. That person: money. My husband: a better gift. My children: more chores. I was all caught up with showing and telling everyone how to live better (i.e. setting them straight on all of the things I thought they should be doing for me!).

I’d seen and heard lots of advice on the merits of cleaning up your own life before you start worrying about the lives of others, but one day it finally sunk in a little deeper. While my husband and son were taking a nap, resting and snoozing away without a care in the world, I was wrestling with myself over which exact minute they should be waking up and what we would do to have fun as a family once they did. (They were already having fun; I was the only one not counting it as that.)

Just the day before, I’d stressed myself out because they always wanted something from me and I never had a moment for myself. "Mom, where are my soccer cleats?" "Honey, we’re out of half and half."

Wow. How crazy is that? You know you’re mindset is whacked when you get the thing you most want – in this case, time to myself and peace and quiet -- and instead of enjoying it, you are already trying to fix something else that’s not right.

I decided to take a bath. It wasn’t that much fun, the first time I focused off of others and onto myself, but I forced myself to read a little in the tub and kept heating it up until my fingers shriveled.

Over time, as I kept training my focus from fixing them to righting myself, I found I wasn’t nearly as bossy or moody. I was not imprisoned with worry and responsibility about what others were or were not doing. I focused my heart and mind and morals and energy into what I was doing and what I was creating and how and what I wanted to be a part of. That still included being a soccer mom and learning how to bake the Desperate Housewives brownie recipe, but it also began to include rollerblading with a girlfriend every Saturday morning, and opening a brokerage account for myself, with a monthly auto-deposit.

Instead of crying that no one had ever thrown me a birthday party, I invited 40 friends to celebrate with me at a charity fundraiser dinner. (My hair caught on fire, but that is another story. Never put dozens of candles on a birthday cake. It is a fire hazard!)

Instead of counting up all the times that my son did not take out the trash, I simply tied his allowance to his trash chore! No more bickering. Do it and you get paid. Do not do it and your allowance suffers. I took myself out of the mix. I am not a child development expert here, so consult the experts, but when the chore was no longer about me, or about my child proving that he really loved me (by taking out the trash), it was easier to find ways to get it done.

And the process of that helped me to become a person that I actually enjoyed being every day, regardless of what others do to me or do not do for me. I was discovering that my son could find his own soccer socks (if I didn’t jump and find them for him), my husband could pick up the milk (if I asked him to), and I could research which stocks I wanted to own and rollerblade my way back to the body I once sported (if I quit fixing everyone else and focused on making myself into the best person I could be).


Have a great Mother’s Day. As for me, I promise myself that I will say "Thank You" for my gifts, even if they are burnt pancakes and orange juice with a little too much frozen concentrate. And I also promise to take a little time for myself to do something that I love.

Speaking of things I love, this job is the most fun I’ve ever had working and I feel blessed every day. Thank you for continuing to support NataliePace.com and my new book because your support allows me to continue operating! Your purchase of my book and your ongoing subscription allows our team to continue to add a splash of green to Wall Street and transform lives on Main Street. This Mother’s Day, we’re offering two specials for Mom, as our thanks to you for your support all of these years. See below!

FYI: CNN is doing a feature on my book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is the day before Mother’s Day, May 9, 2009. So please visit the NataliePace.com Calendar section for more information.

 

Mother’s Day Gift Offers:
1. 1. 9 Months Free When You Purchase 3 Months of the NataliePace.com Ezine

We’re offering a special on the ezine of nine months free when you sign Mom up for three months. So she’ll receive ongoing support all year long! Simply go to the JOIN NOW link at NataliePace.com, register for three months. Pay $75 on your credit card. Then send Heather@NataliePace.com a quick note asking for a Happy Mother’s Day email that you can forward to your beloved. Heather will send you the Welcome email, and add nine additional months of subscription in the back office.

2. Great Gift for $25 (or less online): You can buy Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is at your local book store or online for a great gift that satisfies her desire to build a better life and U.S. and world.

3. Get Away Vacation and Stock Retreat rolled into one!
Register NOW for the Get Rich and Green Retreat in Santa Monica, CA, before Mother’s Day, and receive Early Bird Pricing of just $1995 per person or $3,300 per couple. There are only four seats remaining at this intimate, investing retreat that is taught hands-on by Natalie Pace for three days in a boardroom setting. So CALL 866.476.7442 NOW TO BOOK YOUR SEAT! Get more information on the banner ad at NataliePace.com.

 

To my mother (who died before the age of 36) and my grandmother (who passed on before the age of 26), "You are great. You are beautiful. You are one with God. You are loved." (This is one of Dr. Rickie Byars Beckwith chants.)


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5 Tips for Avoiding Foreclosure Scams.

by the Federal Reserve.

1. Work only with a nonprofit, HUD-approved counselor.
If you are looking for help to prevent foreclosure, be sure the counseling agency is on the Department of Housing and Urban Development's list of approved agencies. Visit HUD's website for an easily searchable list of HUD-approved housing counseling agencies, or call 877-HUD-1515 (877-483-1515) for more information. If you are approached by foreclosure counselors--by mail, phone, or in person--make sure the counseling agency is HUD-approved before you do business with them.

2. Don't pay an arm and a leg. You should not have to pay hundreds--or thousands--of dollars. Most HUD-approved housing counselors provide no-cost counseling services and many more provide low-cost counseling. Do not agree to work with a counselor who collects a fee before providing you with any services or who accepts payment only by cashier's check or wire transfer. In general, do not pay money to anyone unless you know exactly what services you will receive.

3. Be wary of "guarantees."
A reputable counselor will not guarantee to stop the foreclosure process, no matter what your circumstances. Working with a legitimate counselor can certainly increase your chances of keeping your home--but be wary of people who promise a sure thing. Again, get the details of your transaction, along with any promises, in writing first.

4. Know what you are signing--and be sure you sign it.
Don't let a counselor pressure you to sign paperwork you haven't had a chance to read through carefully or that you don't understand. Don't sign any blank forms or let "the counselor" fill out forms for you. Be sure to talk with an attorney before signing anything that transfers the title of your home to another party.

5. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
If you feel you may be the target or victim of foreclosure fraud, trust your instincts and seek help. For tips on spotting scam artists, visit the Federal Trade Commission's webpage on foreclosure rescue scams. Report suspicious schemes to your state and local consumer protection agencies, which you can find on the Federal Citizen Information Center's Consumer Action Website.


Sell in May and Go Away.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.

May 4, 2009

General Stock Market Performance

Wednesday, 1.3.2007

Monday, 1.2.2008

Monday, 1.2.2009

Friday, 5.4.09

Gains 2-yr, 1-yr & 5 mo.

Dow: 12,474.52

Dow: 13,044.12

Dow: 9,034.69

Dow: 8,358.88

-33% & -36% & -7%

Nasdaq: 2,423.16

Nasdaq: 2,609.63

Nasdaq: 1,632.21

Nasdaq: 1,743.75

-28% & -33% & +7%

S&P: 1,416.60

S&P: 1,447.16

S&P: 931.80

S&P: 893.60

-37% & -38% & -4%

Hot News on Cool Stocks Highlights!
418% gains on U.S. Gold
87% of the companies and positions listed below are earning profits
Massive gains on the Cooling Off List, and some new opportunities highlighted
TipsTraders still has me ranked as #11, above over 830 A-list pundits

Wall Street Lows on March 9, 2009:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 6547
NASDAQ Composite Index: 1269
S&P 500 Index: 677

Market Update: It is important to note that NASDAQ has been kicking assets on the Dow and S&P all year. In the ongoing race to the bottom in 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (aka the Bailout Index) has lost 7%, the S&P500 has lost 4%, while NASDAQ is actually UP 7% since January. NASDAQ is also trouncing the returns of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway fund, which is shadowing the returns of the S&P500, so far this year.

Performance of NASDAQ, DJIA, S&P500 and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) since January 1, 2009

Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com

Photo: Stacie Isabella Turk. © 2008. Ribbonhead.com Stylist/Makeup: Arlene Hylton-Campbell

The current rally has investors absolutely gleeful, but it defies logic and thus, in my view, is probably going to run out of steam sooner rather than later. You’ll see below, that I’ve removed (taken profits on) most of the companies off of the Hot List and have more than a few highlighted on the Cooling Off list (where I put companies that I expect to lose value).

It’s difficult to imagine a long-term market love fest, when faced with the dismal -6.1% advance GDP growth report which the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) released on April 29, 2009. We still have to endure the Treasury’s Bank Stress Test results on May 7, 2009. And beyond that, there is the larger issue of the availability of credit for distressed corporations. Most of the casinos in Vegas, many airlines, many auto manufacturers, etc. will need dough to rise again, and those with the dough are being vilified these days when they ride to the rescue. Just about every market (outside of Internet advertising, so read the "Hulu" article) is suffering from weaker sales and needs to ride through the storm on credit.

The investment bankers and economists that I spoke with at the 2009 Milken Global Conference expressed grave concern (as in graveyard) over the Administration’s handling of the Chrysler bankruptcy. What creditor will want to loan money to distressed corporations when they lose priority positioning in the reorganization process? Should an investor be called a vulture when s/he rides in to save the day with emergency funding (demanding a higher return for taking on the colossal risk) after many years of mismanagement and negative operations that resulted from unions, employees and management not making great products in a sustainable way?

Corporations founded before 1980 promised pensions and health benefits to employees that they are now unable to deliver on. When they promised those benefits, the average person died at 64, one year before retirement. Now people live beyond 80. And health care costs are more expensive in the last six months of life than many people earn in a lifetime. This is a legacy, social issue that no one in the government has been willing to address – which we all need to pull together to solve. However, demonizing profits, business and capital lenders will not lead to freedom, comfort, peace, love and understanding. Money is the fuel of innovation. It is not evil, unless it is used for evil.

And money is not at the root of the pension crisis and aging of America. Health is. We are healthier and more beautiful today than we’ve ever been. 80 is the new 60. 60 is the new 40. And our expectations of what life is, what fun is and how mighty we want to make our nation could be the only solution necessary to switch America out of the graying nation, into the greatest nation once again. The war between labor and corporations is fueling our own demise. Corporations need great employees to make the most innovative products and services necessary to live in and co-create the best planet in the solar system. That is what America was built upon.

Free markets have proven to be the best fuel for innovation and prosperity known on the planet. Nationalization (Communism) was a resounding failure. Whether Chrysler is owned by the U.S. government, in cooperation with the unions, Fiat and the Canadian government, in the absence of fundamental business practices, including the preservation of lending rights, it is impossible for the business to be viable. And even if the business can be kept "alive," the soil is not ripe for innovation, which is what America has prided itself in since the birth of our nation.

I have been reporting on the pension problems since the inception of my ezine in 2002, and my understanding of how that issue plays in the general marketplace is a large part of my success over the last decade. Pensions and health care costs are the fundamental reason why the U.S. is in a stalled economy. The stock market is worth less this year than it was a decade ago. It is the fundamental reason why the NASDAQ, where companies founded after 1980 (and use 401ks instead of pensions) are concentrated, is outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average by a large margin this year and will continue to going forward. Over 10% of the Dow is still concentrated in companies that are being bailed out, like Citigroup, Bank of America and General Motors. Fannie Mae, AIG and Phillip Morris tobacco company were components of the 30-component index in 2008.

This is why you must get smart with regard to your nest egg. The only hope of resurrecting your portfolio is to:

  1. Know what you own
  2. Avoid the Bailout Index
  3. Employ Exchange Traded Funds, not mutual funds
  4. Keep a percentage equal to your age safe (and know what "safe" is)
  5. Have an annual rebalancing strategy

Most money managers and CFPs are still relying on Buy and Hold strategies that DO NOT WORK in a slow growth environment. It is ESSENTIAL that you stop employing blind faith and get educated now. These are the strategies that I teach in my retreats. It saves nest eggs, will bring you returns and help to create a better world in the bargain. Yes, you can get rich and enrich.

There are only four seats available at the June 11-13, 2009 Get Rich and Green retreat. I highly recommend that you take a look at the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com and then call 866.476.7442 immediately to register for your seat. Current subscribers receive early bird pricing, if you register before May 15, 2009. You will also receive a 12-month premium subscription, valued at $2000 per person. Premium subscribers receive ongoing support through my monthly ezine, mid-month update and quarterly teleconferences.

Most professionals spend over a quarter of a million dollars educating themselves to become income earners. You can spend a small fraction of that to become a smart investor, so that your money earns gains while you sleep, instead of watching it slip through your fingers down the drain!

At minimum, please be sure to read my new book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is, to ensure that you learn the only strategies that have worked for the last decade on Wall Street. And do your friends a favor. Pass this note over to them also!

Track Record of our Reporting
While the markets have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years. 72 positions listed below – 87% -- have delivered impressive gains over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading lower than it was ten years ago! Only eleven of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given the horrible market drop of this fall. Additionally, in 2008, nineteen out of 27 companies that were featured in our monthly articles and stock report cards posted strong gains. That is also a 77% winning track record! (We are really coming up with the winning 7s this year.)

See the article, "New Year. New You. New Nest Egg," in Vol. 6, Issue 1, for the chart and more details.

Yes, many, but not all, of our top performers in 2008 and 2009 are shorts, which is why we added options training to the retreat. Remember that the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take your profits early and often in this volatile, down-trending year.

3 out of 6 Company of the Year selections more than doubled.  My 2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.  MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders that year.   So three out of six are superperformers, one (Myspace) performed well above the market. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.  (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)

TipsTraders.com continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied the #1 position. Currently, I’m ranked #11 for 2008. Some of our best picks include: Google (GOOG) +545%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in 2008 were put options – on the Cooling Off list. Look there for details on the incredible gains options investors enjoyed on Wells Fargo, Fortress Investment Group, Sears Holding, Fannie Mae, Toll Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.

Market Movers:
The Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the 4.29.09 press release, the Federal Reserve Board further elaborated on the reasoning behind the rock bottom rates, writing: "Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time… Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term."

That is Fed-speak for "We are experiencing deflation now as retailers try to stay afloat by selling everything and the kitchen sink at rock-bottom prices." Economists worry that deflation is the immediate concern, but more importantly that inflation could be a big issue going forward once the economy starts to recover.

The Milken Institute estimates that the bailout to date has cost the taxpayer $9.9 trillion.

The next meeting takes place on June 23-24, 2009.

Advance GDP growth rates for 1Q 2009 were a decline of -6.1%. The economy contracted at -6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008.

Preliminary GDP growth estimates for 1Q 2009 will be released on May 29, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall Street. Negative GDP tends to cause sell-offs in the stock markets. Robust GDP growth reports spark rallies. Since the advance estimates were so dismal, it’s hard to imagine a big downside surprise. For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section often.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC Information: Interested in reading the press release of the April 28-29, 2009 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!

The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2009 calendar is: June 23-24, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 11-12, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), September 22-23, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), November 3-4, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 15-16, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), January 26-27, 2010 (Tuesday-Wednesday).

2. Calendar Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire money managers, life coaches, economists, respected money gurus, real estate veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication date of our next ezine. Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.

Don’t mIssue the Premium Subscriber’s teleconference with Natalie Pace on Wednesday, May 6, 2009 at 5:00 p.m. PT (8:00 p.m. ET). Get call-in instructions on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board. This teleconference is open to all subscribers. Be sure to write down the call-in information now. You will need your passwords!

3. Survey Results: Each month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your needs and desires. This month, with Mother’s Day and the upheaval in the auto industry, we’re asking what you think Mom most wants and how you would have handled the Chrysler bankruptcy. Cast your vote on our survey page!

4. Euro interest rates: ECB rates are at 1.25% (main refinancing), 2.25% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement is scheduled for May 7, 2009 at 2:30 p.m. CET.

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education" money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t have mastery over.

Hot News List (highlighted).  Be sure that you are buying low.
None

Profit-Taking (Take your profits early and often):
HOKU (HOKU) +50%
KCI Concepts (KCI) +18%
LDK (LDK) +79%
Sociedad de Quimica (SQM) +47%

DELETIONS (Take your profits early and often):
Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) 4.13.09
American Superconductor (AMSC) 4.13.09
Citigroup (C) on 3.15.09
eBay (EBAY) 4.13.09
Eastern European Fund (EUROX) 4.13.09
FMC Corporation (FMC) 5.4.09
General Electric (GE) 4.13.09
Genentech (DNA) on 3.15.09
Google (GOOG) 4.13.09
Maxwell (MXWL) 4.13.09
MEMC Electronics (WFR) 4.13.09
Microsoft (MSFT) 4.13.09
OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) on 3.15.09
PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio (PZD) on 5.4.09
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) +60%
Rio Tinto (RTP) on 4.1.09
Satcon (SATC) 4.13.09
Sunpower (SPWRA) 5.4.09
Suntech (STP) 4.13.09
TREMX 5.4.09
Trina Solar (TSL) 4.13.09
Westpac (WBK) 4.13.09

HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS LIST

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price 5.4.09

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Conergy

Based out of Germany

RISK: MEDIUM

No

CEYHF

$22.50

$1.55 (12.1.08)

$1.12

$96.14

$.41

-95% &

-28%

See the Wind Power article in Vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems integration. On 3.26.09, announced that company would be delaying publication of 2008 financial statements, which were originally due on March 27, 2009. Reason is that they are in negotiation with an important supplier and the "outcome of these discussions has a considerable effect on the annual results."

Emcore

No

EMKR

$11.02

$1.51 (12.1.08)

$1.34

$14.98

$0.50

-88% &

-11%

EMCORE Corp (EMCORE) is a provider of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments: Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Was awarded an R&D 100 award by R&D Magazine for the IMM solar cell as one of the most innovative technologies of 2008.

Class action lawsuit was filed on 2.11.09 declaring that Emcore mislead investors about its earnings, backlog, customers, etc.

On June 18, 2008, Emcore announced that IBM used 55 miles of optical fiber EMCORE Connects Cables to build Roadrunner HPC system.

2Q 2009 results are going to be released on May 11, 2009 after markets close. Preliminary 1Q 2009 results (on 2.9.09): Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was $54.1 million, an increase of $7.2 million, or 15%, from $46.9 million reported in the same period last year and a decrease of $6.5 million, or 11%, from $60.6 million reported in the immediately preceding quarter. At December 31, 2008, cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and available for sale securities totaled approximately $18.8 million, working capital totaled $75.4 million, and outstanding loans under the Company's $25 million secured line of credit with Bank of America totaled $15.4 million. Shortly after the close of the first quarter, the Company sold its remaining interests in Entech Solar, Inc. (formerly named WorldWater and Solar Technologies Corporation) for $11.4 million in cash, which is not reflected in the quarter-end cash balance. During the first quarter, the Company freed up $2.6 million in cash that was previously tied up in auction rate securities. As previously disclosed, the Company has received indications of interest from several investors regarding a minority equity investment directly into the Company's wholly-owned Photovoltaics subsidiary which would serve as an initial step towards a potential spin off of that business. The Company's management is aggressively pursuing these opportunities. Cost Reduction Initiatives: Over the last three months, the Company has implemented a number of cost reduction initiatives including:

* A reduction in personnel totaling approximately 160 people, or 17% of the total workforce, resulting in annualized cost savings of approximately $9 million

* A significant reduction in the FY 2008 employee bonus plan payouts

* The elimination of all FY 2009 employee merit increases

* Significant reductions in capital expenditures

* Restrictions on employee travel and other discretionary expenditures

On a GAAP basis, the consolidated net loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was $53.4 million, an increase of $39.0 million from $14.4 million reported in the same period last year and an increase of $12.2 million from $41.2 million reported in the preceding quarter.

Order Backlog: As of December 31, 2008, the company had an order backlog of approximately $53.2 million. The order backlog is defined as purchase orders or supply agreements accepted by the Company with expected product delivery and / or services to be performed within the next twelve months. The December 31, 2008 order backlog is comprised of $30.2 million related to our Photovoltaics segment and $23.0 million related to our Fiber Optics segment.

Ener1

No

HEV

$6.06

$5.75 (4.15.09)

$6.01

$9.49

$2.35

Flat &

+5%

Read "Life Begins with Lithium" from Vol. 6, Issue 4. HEV is the only lithium-ion battery manufacturer with commercial-scale production facilities in the United States of automotive grade quality. On April 1, 2009, HEV announced its membership to the newly launched Energy Systems Network (ESN), an Indiana-based consortium bringing together national energy leaders, manufacturing executives, state officials and civic leaders to create new economic opportunities and strengthen energy independence by advancing the electric drive vehicle industry.

Hoku Scientific

Hawaii

RISK: HIGH

Yes

HOKU

$8.03

$2.00

(3.2.09)

$3.00

$14.55

$2.06

-63% &

50%

Take your profits early and often! If you made 50% gains, consider cashing in your profits.

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, Issue 3 and "Solar Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, Issue 10.

Annual report is issued in June of each year. Announced 3Q 2009 earnings on January 28, 2009: Revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 $767,000. GAAP Net loss for the quarter was -$863,000, or -$0.04 per diluted share. 4Q and FY 2009 earnings should be published in June.

"We are proud to have successfully secured PPA financing for the Hawaii State government's first major solar power installation, despite notable turbulence in the finance markets. And, we are pleased with our continued progress in our solar installation business. We have dramatically increased the aggregate amount of PV installed compared to FY 2008, and are beginning to see a backlog of projects in the design phase for future construction," according to Dustin Shindo, Chairman and CEO.

Commenting on the Idaho polysilicon manufacturing facility, ""We continue actively working to mitigate the impact of delayed customer prepayments, but now expect that this may result in a shift of our planned production demonstration from the first quarter of calendar year 2009 to the second quarter of calendar year 2009," Mr. Shindo said. "Looking ahead, this may also cause us to shift our planned first commercial shipment from the first half of 2009 to the second half of 2009. As before, we plan to ramp-up production throughout the second half of calendar year 2009 and into calendar year 2010, when we expect to reach full production capability. We expect this revised schedule will still allow us to meet all delivery obligations to our current customers, and we will continue managing our project to ensure this remains the case."

Contracted to build a polysilicon facility in Idaho capable of producing up to 2,500 metric tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. The first six of 28 polysilicon reactors were delivered to Pocatello on January 14, 2009, with the next ten scheduled for delivery on March 2009.

Kinetic Concepts, Inc.

No

KCI

$38.81

$21.05

(12.1.08)

$24.90

$66.77

$18.50

-36% &

+18%

Read the article, "Beauty is Skin Deep," in Vol. 5, Issue 5. If you made a profit of 18%, take your profits early and often!

REPORTED 1Q 2009 EARNINGS ON 4.21.09. 2009 total revenue of $470.1 million, an increase of 12% from the first quarter of 2008. Net earnings: $40 million, a 42% decrease from the prior year. Gross profit margin is 52%.

Cash and cash equivalents: $180 million.

LDK Solar

GREEN

Yes

LDK

$30.02

$4.94

(3.2.09)

$8.84

$76.75

$3.75

-70% &

+79%

Read the articles, "Green..." in Vol. 6, Issue 2 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, Issue 4.

Take your profits early and often! If you made 79% gains, take your profits.

On 4.15.09, LDK announced the company had secured a loan for RMB 200 million (equivalent to approximately US$29 million) from China Development Bank and received approval for a RMB 1 billion (equivalent to approximately US$146 million) credit line from Agricultural Development Bank of China. LDK Solar now has unused credit facilities totaling US$785 million.

4Q and FY results on 3.11.09: Fiscal year 2008 revenue of $1.6 billion, up 214% year-over-year. Annualized wafer production capacity expanded by over 1 GW, reaching 1.46 GW at the end of 2008; Signed 14 long-term wafer supply agreements during the year, achieving a sales backlog of over 14 GW through 2018.

Net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 were $426.6 million, down 21.3% from $541.8 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2008, and up 121% from $192.8 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. During the fourth quarter, LDK Solar recorded a write-down of $216.7 million against the cost of inventories for a decline in net realizable value of inventories resulting from the rapid markeldkt price decline for solar wafers.

LDK Solar ended fiscal 2008 with $255.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and $83.4 million in short-term pledged bank deposits. "Despite its challenges, 2008 was a year of impressive and rapid growth for LDK Solar," stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar.

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd.

No

MPEL

$6.54

$5.77

$19.09

$2.31

-12%

Check out the article, "(No) Viva Las Vegas" (Vol. 5, Issue 10). Operates Crown, a 6- star Resort and Casino in Macau, the trendy Mocha slot machine cafes and is developing City of Dreams in Macau, with Hard Rock, Hyatt and Dragone Entertainment. CEO/Chairman Lawrence Ho is the son of Macau gambling billionaire Stanley Ho.

Upgraded to NASDAQ Global Select Market on 1.2.09.

On 3.31.09, the Company recorded annual earnings of $1.4 billion (over $360 million last year) and a profit of $1.2 million.

Cash and cash equivalents are at $815 million.

Melco Crown Gaming has a rating of "BB" by Standard & Poor’s and a rating of "Ba3" by Moody’s Investors Service. For future borrowings, any decrease in our corporate rating could result in an increase in borrowing costs.

The City of Dreams project in Macau looks to be in good shape and is scheduled to open in the "first half of 2009." Melco CEO and co-Chairman Lawrence Ho (age 31) is the son of one Macau’s most powerful casino monopolists over the past century – the legendary Stanley Ho. Deep pockets and rich connections.

According to the Melco press release: Combining electrifying entertainment, stylish nightclubs, a diverse array of accommodation, regional and international dining, world-class shopping and a spacious and contemporary casino, City of Dreams will usher in a new era of gaming and entertainment when it opens in Cotai during the first half of 2009. The resort brings together a dream team of world-renowned brands such as Crown, Grand Hyatt, Hard Rock and Dragone to create an exceptional entertainment experience that will appeal to the broadest spectrum of visitors from around Asia and the world.

New Zealand Dollar currency ETF by WisdomTree

No

BNZ

$25.17

$18.49

(12.1.08)

$19.63

$25.31

$16.67

-21% &

+7%

Read the article, "Foreign Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in Vol. 5, Issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand is the new attraction on the world currency markets.

Smith & Nephew

London, England

RISK: MEDIUM

Yes

SNN

$55.78

$34.92

(12.1.08)

$35.58

$69.20

$30.27

-36% &

+2%

Announced full year earnings on February 12, 2009: $3.8 billion in earnings. Read the article in Vol. 4, issue 7. The company is based out of London, England. SNN has a piece of an exploding marketplace in the hip resurfacing business with its premiere product, called the BIRMINGHAM HIP* Resurfacing System. Hip resurfacing is far less invasive than the total hip replacement and even has athletes like Floyd Landis and Gary Kobat back competing in running and biking within a year of surgery!

On 1.30.09, Smith & Nephew, Inc. (NYSE: SNN, LSE: SN) announced that its Orthopaedics Reconstruction Division has entered into a grant administration agreement with the Orthopaedic Research and Education Foundation (OREF). This should help training and adoption of the innovative orthopaedic products that SNN has been pioneering.

Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile

No

SQM

$25.21

$21.51

(12.1.08)

$31.65

$59.41

$12.98

-26% &

+47%

Read the article, Treasure Hunting, in Vol. 5, Issue 10 and the article "Life Begins with Li," from Vol. 6, Issue 4.

Take your profits early and often! If you made 47% gains, consider cashing in your profits.

4Q & FY 2008 earnings on 2.24.09: Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) (NYSE: SQM; Santiago Stock Exchange: SQM-B, SQM-A) reported Revenues for 2008 totaled US$1,774.1 million, representing growth of 49.4% over the US$1,187.5 million reported in 2007.

SQM's Chief Executive Officer, Patricio Contesse, stated, "SQM is pleased to announce yet another record year of growth in our financial results in spite of global economic uncertainty. Since 2000, our consolidated revenues have grown at a CAGR of 20% while our bottom line has expanded at a CAGR of 50% due in large part to our strategic position in our core markets and our continued commitment to efficiency," commented Patricio Contesse, the Company's Chief Executive Officer. He added, "In general, SQM benefited substantially this year from favorable pricing conditions in Specialty Plant Nutrition and from higher sales volumes in Iodine and Derivatives. Looking forward, the unprecedented turmoil in global markets seen during the last part of the year will likely pose new challenges for the Company in 2009. We believe, however, that the underlying fundamentals in our core business lines remain solid and will allow us to face potential challenges."

U.S. Gold

Colorado USA

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$.50

$2.06

$7.04

$.38

-59% &

+418%

Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very risky.

NOTE: The mantra this year continues to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve quadrupled your money, consider taking some of your profits.

You’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S. Gold going forward as well, however. Gold should be a great hedge against inflation in the future. (Right now, the Feds are concerned about deflation, but inflation could be on the 12-18 month horizon.)

The Company's primary objective in Nevada is to discover the next Cortez Hills deposit. Cortez Hills, owned by the world's largest gold producer, is Nevada's largest gold discovery of the past decade and located just 10 miles (16 km) north of U.S. Gold. They also have mines in Mexico that are promising high grade gold and silver ore. This is an exploration company, not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time.

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) See the feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol. 3, Issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com channel.

A U.S. Gold company spokesperson says that their capital position is secure, and that they have trimmed costs to preserve capital in 2009. Company may need more capital in 2009 (according to the bean counters), however, so make sure that you’re buying near the 52-week low to maximize your upside potential.

Recently Deleted Companies 2008/2009:
Echelon +20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson +10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%, Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08) +40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek (deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1 and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1 and 12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits 20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On 2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42% on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%. OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%), GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC (+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%) and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%, AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted 4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google +9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%, SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpack +42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19% gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with 50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%.

Recently Deleted from the Hot News list:
Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI)
American Superconductor (AMSC)
Citigroup (C) on 3.15.09
eBay 4.13.09
EUROX 4.13.09
FMC Corp. 5.4.09
GE 4.13.09
Genentech on 3.15.09
Google 4.13.09
Maxwell 4.13.09
MEMC Electronics 4.13.09
Microsoft 4.13.09
OSI Pharmaceuticals on 3.15.09
PowerShares Clean Tech ETF (PZD) on 5.4.09
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) on 5.4.09
Rio Tinto on 4.1.09
Satcon 4.13.09
Sunpower (SPWRA) 5.4.09
Suntech Power Holdings 4.13.09
TREMX 5.4.09
Trina Solar 4.13.09
Westpac 4.13.09
Wisdom Tree 5.4.09

Altair Nanotechnology

RISK: MEDIUM/ HIGH

No

ALTI

$1.99

$0.67 (3.13.09)

$1.40

$5.45

$.60

-30%

+209%

Read the article on Electric Cars in Vol. 4, Issue 6.

Take your profits early and often! If you doubled your money, take your gains.

Earnings on 3.11.09: For the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company reported revenues of $5.7 million, down from $9.1 million for 2007. The net loss was $29.1 million, or 34 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $31.5 million, or 45 cents per share, for 2007. The Company disclosed that as a result of the Company not achieving its 2008 financial targets, no bonuses were paid to middle and senior level managers.

"The markets for clean energy storage systems for power-dependent applications within smart-grid, renewable integration, military, and transportation are developing," said Dr. Terry Copeland, president and CEO of Altairnano. "However, there is no question that current economic conditions have delayed purchasing decisions. On a positive note, several sections of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act are directed at those very markets and we anticipate those funds will help accelerate the adoption of advanced energy storage systems."

The Company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by $22.1 million, from $50.2 million at December 31, 2007 to $28.1 million at December 31, 2008.

American Superconductor

No

AMSC

$25.96

$11.31 (12.1.08)

$19.15

$47.53

$8.22

-26% &

+70%

NOTE: If you made 70% ROI, the mantra this year continues to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN.

Read the article "Clean Energy Rolls Out Worldwide," in Vol. 4, Issue 12. Competitors include GE (NYSE: GE), Siemens (NYSE: SI), Rockwell (NYSE: ROK), and DRS (NYSE: DRS). High Temperature Superconductor (HTS) wire is able to transmit 150 times more energy than a copper wire of the same dimensions. This enables electric utilities to replace multiple conventional copper cables with one HTS-powered cable, leaving valuable underground real estate available for other uses – including future power upgrades. The worldwide cable market represents a multi-billion-dollar annual opportunity, but their power converters are also in the exploding marketplace of wind turbines and fuel cells. American Superconductor’s backlog of orders exceeds $634 million, with growth primarily driven by the wind energy market. AMSC expects the Asia-Pacific marketplace to account for up to 50% of sales in fiscal year 2007.

Revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 (released on 2.4.09) were $41.3 million, a 27 percent increase over $32.6 million in revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2007. Gross margin for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 was 23.2 percent, which compares with 30.9 percent for the third quarter of fiscal 2007. The company’s net loss for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 was $7.8 million, or $0.18 per share. This compares with a net loss for the third quarter of fiscal 2007 of $7.3 million, or $0.18 per share.

Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash at December 31, 2008 were $122.6 million. The company reported backlog as of December 31, 2008 of approximately $602 million compared with $597 million as of September 30, 2008 and $168 million as of December 31, 2007.

"Our two core growth drivers – the Chinese wind power market and the U.S. power grid market – remained strong through our third fiscal quarter, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future," said Greg Yurek, AMSC’s founder and chief executive officer. "Wind continues to be our growth engine; however, more than $27 million of our $46 million in third-quarter bookings were for our D-VAR® Smart Grid solutions. With these new orders, we now have more than $175 million out of the total of $602 million in backlog that we expect to recognize as revenue in fiscal 2009. Our backlog position for both fiscal 2009 and the following two fiscal years and the strength of our core markets position us for strong growth in fiscal 2009 and beyond."

"We expect to generate our first GAAP profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008," said David Henry, senior vice president and chief financial officer. "While the investments we intend to make in fiscal 2009 to help achieve our long-term growth plans may limit us to earnings of a few cents per share for full fiscal 2009, profitability is our top priority," Henry concluded.

Citigroup

DIVIDENDS 4.31%!

RISK: LOW

No

C

$1.25

$2.33

(3.16.09)

$27.35

$.97

+86%

Bailed out by the Feds November 2008. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. However, believe there will be a bounce on Citi since the Feds aren’t going to let it go under… Forward P/E is 2.

eBay

RISK: LOW

No

eBAY

$14.27

$10.36 (3.2.09)

$15.02

$40.73

$10.91

+5% &

+45%

Take your profits early and often! Took off the Hot List on 4.13.09.

Owns Skype. The growth potential there is huge… In fact, on 3.31.09, Skype announced that there is an Application available for iPhone now and that the Blackberry app will be available as a free download in May. Also note that eBay owns Paypal, which is a popular way to pay when credit cards are an issue, as they are becoming.

So… eBay has a number of companies that are "staples" in a recession. Who can live without their phone these days? You can live in your car, but without a phone? Oh vey!

4Q and FY 2008 results on 1.21.09: For the full year, eBay Inc. posted $8.54 billion in revenue, net income on a GAAP basis of $1.78 billion or $1.36 per diluted share.

The company’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $3.19 billion at December 31, 2008, compared to $4.22 billion at December 31, 2007.

U.S. Global Investors Eastern European mutual fund

No

EUROX

$6.33

$5.62

$19.84

$5.27

-11%

Lots of Russian oil and gas. New holdings. Took off the Hot List on 4.13.09.

FMC Corp.

No

FMC

$42.99

$50.99

$80.23

$28.53

+19%

Deleted on 5.4.09. Profit-taking. Still love the company! Think the markets remain challenging. Read "Life Begins with Lithium" from Vol. 6, Issue 4.

General Electric

RISK: LOW

No

GE

$26.69

$7.70 (3.2.09)

$11.33

$42.15

$10.66

-56% &

+47%

Deleted 4.13.09.

GE is a big presence in renewable energy these days. Very green… Should benefit from an Obama Presidency. On the other hand, major pension plan and OPEB obligations. Additionally, GE had investments with Madoff Hedge Fund. Annual report on 2.18.09: Revenues of $182.5 Billion, over $172 in 2007. Net earnings = $17.4 billion. Cash and cash equivalents = $48 billion.

Genentech

No

DNA

$73.00

$94.20

(3.13.09)

$99.14

$65.35

+29%

Roche is buying Genentech for $95/share. Cool to take your profits now. Companies issued a press release on 3.12.09. (btw: This is a premium on the hostile bid of $86.50 per share.)

Google

No

GOOG

$341.43

$372.50

$747.24

$247.30

+9%

Deleted 4.13.09. 4th quarter and year-end results January 22, 2009: Google reported revenues of $5.70 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2008, an increase of 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2007 and an increase of 3% compared to the third quarter of 2008. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $382 million as compared to $1.29 billion in the third quarter of 2008. As of December 31, 2008, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $15.85 billion.

On a worldwide basis, Google employed 20,222 full-time employees as of December 31, 2008, up from 20,123 full-time employees as of September 30, 2008.

Google is such a popular stock, and is a New Blue Chip that can help ground and stabilize your nest egg. And now, finally, it is trading at a 4-year low! This marketplace may not be through with its correction, however, even though, if you buy now, you are getting it for over half off what investors were willing to pay in 2007! I have not highlighted Google for a reason, because 2009 is predicted to be a bear of a year. Google is a better bet than the Bailout Index (Dow Jones Industrial Average). Be cautious jumping in too early when prices could be lower across the board in a few months.

Maxwell

No

MXWL

$7.06

$8.80

$14.75

$4.00

+25%

Read "Life Begins with Lithium" from Vol. 6, Issue 4. Take your profits early and often! Maxwell announced on 3.26.09 that they’ve hired a new CFO -- Kevin S. Royal, who used to be CFO of Blue Coat Systems Inc, effective April 20, 2009.

MEMC Electronics

GREEN

RISK: MEDIUM

No

WFR

$28.26

$12.75

$18.94

$96.08

$10.00

-33% &

+49%

Deleted on 4.13.09. MEMC is projecting that the 1st quarter 2009 results could be as much as 50% lower than 4Q 2008.

MEMC was added to the S&P 500 in August of 2007. Read the "Sun Powers Whole Foods," article in Vol. 3, Issue 10 and "Green" in Vol. 6, Issue 2. Silicon is in high demand, and MEMC has been able to price its product and pick its customers accordingly. Volatile marketplace. Great company. With more silicon manufacturing companies coming online this year and next (like HOKU Scientific), MEMC’s operating margins are down to 19% this year, from 33% last year.

1.22.09 reported 4Q and FY earnings: For the full year ended December 31, 2008, the company's net sales increased by 4.3% to $2.00 billion, compared to $1.92 billion in 2007. Cash and investment balances grew by $92.3 million to over $1.4 billion. Net income was $390 million, compared to $826 million a year ago.

Worse was the interim CEO’s announcement that "Our current view of the markets we serve indicates that first quarter 2009 revenue could decline by as much as 50% from the fourth quarter of 2008." 1Q 2009 results should be released the first week in May of 2009.

Ahmad Chatila was tapped as the new CEO and president on 2.5.09. He previously worked as an executive vice president for Cypress Semiconductor Corp.'s memory and imaging division and as the company's head of global manufacturing. Wall Street liked the appointment and shares soared on the news.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$15.91

$19.67

$32.10

$14.87

+24%

DELETED 4.13.09. Great Blue Chip for your Long Term Portfolio. 1.22.09 2Q earnings: Microsoft Corp. announced revenue of $16.63 billion for the second quarter ended Dec. 31, 2008, a 2% increase over the same period of the prior year. $4.17 billion in net income.

OSI Pharmaceuticals

RISK: HIGH (U.S.)

2005 Company of the Year

No

OSIP

$35.95

$38.54

(3.13.09)

$53.71

$31.33

+7%

NataliePace.com’s 2005 Company of the Year. Read Vol. 1, Issue 56. OSI Pharmaceuticals was added to the NASDAQ Q-50 Index(sm) (Nasdaq:NXTQ) on September 22, 2008.

Tarceva is the genetic based "cancer pill," and sales have been exploding. Teva Pharma filed an application with the FDA to launch a generic version of Tarceva, which OSIP has challenged. If Teva prevails in court, the original patent period could be reduced to November 18, 2009. There is a lot is at stake here, which overshadows the tremendous Full Year earnings report that OSIP released on 2.27.09. Now that Genentech (OSIP’s partner on Tarceva) has been bought by Roche, the upside on this might have been realized, given the vulnerability of a one-drug company in a harsh economic climate with Goliath pharmaceutical companies dying to sell the generic.

4Q and FY 2008 earnings on 2.27.09: Revenue was $379 million, over $341 million in 2007. Net income was $467 million compared with net income of $103 for 2007.

PowerShares CleanTech Portfolio

No

PZD

$33.22

$20.50

$36.93

$12.84

-38%

The PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (Fund) tracks the Cleantech Index™ (ticker: CTIUS), which is designed to track the leading cleantech companies, from a broad range of industry sectors, that offer the best investment returns. 'Cleantech' companies derive the majority of their business from knowledge-based products or services that improve productivity and/or product performance while reducing total costs, energy and resource consumption, pollution, toxicity, etc. Top holdings as of 2.13.09 include: First Solar, Siemens, Vestas, Auto Desk, Corning.

See Green Your Portfolio article in Vol. 5, Issue 9 and "Green..." in Vol. 6, Issue 2.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio

No

PBW

$19.92

$6.02

(3.2.09)

$9.64

$28.84

$6.02

-52% &

+60%

Exchange Traded Fund in the green, clean, renewable energy space. See Green Your Portfolio article in Vol. 5, Issue 9 and "Green..." in Vol. 6, Issue 2.

Take your profits early and often! If you made 60% gains, take your profits.

Top holdings as of 2.13.09 include: JA Solar, Trina Solar, Yingli, Zoltek, Suntech, Evergreen…

Rio Tinto

(UK based mining company)

No

RTP

$138.69

$84.68

(12.1.08)

$141.14

$558.65

$59.20

+2% &

+67%

If you made 67% gains, take your profits early and often is the theme in 2009!

See "Gold is a 4-Letter Word," Vol. 5, Issue 11. $22.3 billion EBITDA and net earnings of $3.7 billion announced on 2.12.09. Signed deal with Chinese company same day. The major strategic partnership with Chinalco provides additional flexibility in addressing the Group's commitment to reduce net debt by a further $10 billion by end of 2009. Net debt reduced by $6.5 billion to $38.7 billion at 31 December 2008. The transaction is subject to approval by the shareholders of Rio Tinto, governments and other regulators. Australia deferred its approval of the deal for 90 days on 3.15.09.

Satcon

VERY HIGH RISK

Micro Cap

No

SATC

$1.62

$1.15

(3.2.09)

$1.92

$3.14

$1.30

+19% &

+67%

Deleted from Hot News on 4.13.09. Great company in emerging industry, but marketplace is volatile and down-trending. Clean Tech. Satcon is a developer and supplier of power management and system architecture solutions for the alternative energy and distributed power markets.

This is a company that could stand to benefit greatly from Obama’s Clean Energy Cash Infusion. Taking our profits early and often…

Announced 4Q and FY earnings on 3.5.09. Satcon reported revenue for the fourth quarter of $19.3 million, up from $12.2 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. For the full year 2008, revenue grew 49% to $62.5 million from $42.0 million in the twelve months ended 2007. Fourth-quarter 2008 gross margin was 24%, compared with -3% in the same period of 2007.

Net loss from continuing operations for the fourth quarter was approximately $0.6 million, compared with $7.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2007. Fourth-quarter 2008 net loss included restructuring costs of $0.3 million, offset by approximately $1.1 million related to the valuation of the company’s warrant liabilities. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2008, net loss from continuing operations was $12.3 million, compared with a net loss from continuing operations of $16.6 million for the full year of 2007.

Cash and cash equivalents at December 31, 2008 were $10.0 million, compared with $10.5 million at September 27, 2008.

The company reported an ending backlog on December 31, 2008 of approximately $23 million, compared with backlog of $37 million on September 27, 2008. The decrease in backlog for the December quarter was due to the impact of the challenging macroeconomic environment.

SatCon commercial grade inverters are an integral part of Google's corporate headquarters in Mountain View, California. The 1.6MW system is the largest commercial photovoltaic system in the United States. On 12.9.08 announced that Suntech had selected Satcon to help power a 1 megawatt (MW) solar energy installation hosted at The North Face West Coast Distribution Center in Visalia, California for Recurrent Energy.

Sunpower

No

SPWRA

$25.38

$30.26

$107.00

$18.50

+19%

Read "The Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, Issue 3.

Announced 1Q earnings on April 23, 2009. Revenue for the 2009 first quarter was $214 million and compares to revenues of $401 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and $274 million in the first quarter of last year. Net loss was $5 million.

"The first quarter of 2009 was the most challenging quarter we've seen since SunPower went public in 2005," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO. "Our quarterly performance was impacted by seasonality, the continuing effects of the credit crisis and difficult economic conditions. Despite these headwinds we were able to deliver strong gross margins in our Components business and positive non-GAAP net income.

 

4.30.09: NJ’s largest utility, Public Service Electric and Gas, just financed having Sunpower install a 1.2-megawatt solar power system for Certified Steel Co.'s 330,000-square-foot facility in Hamilton, NJ. The system is due to be finished in July.

Sunpower just raised an additional $417.6 million through issuance of 10,350,000 Class A shares (at $22.00 per share) and 4.75% senior convertible debentures due 2014. (4.30.09)

Suntech Power Holdings

Yes

STP

$40.07

$5.50

(3.2.09)

$14.40

$90.00

$5.36

-64% &

+262%

NOTE: The mantra this year continues to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve more than doubled your money, consider taking your profits.

2007 and 2008 Company of the Year! Read "Green" in Vol. 6, Issue 2, "2008 Company of the Year," in Vol. 5, Issue 8 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, Issue 4. Suntech was the official solar sponsor of the Beijing Olympics, our 2007 Company of the Year, as well as our featured Company of the Month in October of 2006. Go to vol 4, Issue 1 and Vol. 3 Issue 10 to access those articles.

4Q and FY 2008 results call on February 18, 2009 at 8:00 a.m. ET. Total net revenues grew 42.7% year-over-year to $1,923.5 million. GAAP net income for the full year was $111.0 million or $0.66 per ADS. Achieved 1GW solar cell and module production capacity. 4Q posted a loss, however, GAAP net loss was $65.9 million, or negative $0.42 per diluted American Depository Share (ADS). Net debt decreased by $273.7 million to $1,117.8 million as of December 31, 2008.

 

"We believe that we are now in a position to service all avenues of solar demand globally, including residential roof-top, commercial roof-top, ground mounted and utility scale. In particular, our continued investment in the U.S. should position us for strong growth in that key market and its burgeoning utility-scale segment via our systems integration unit, Suntech Energy Solutions, and our project development joint venture, Gemini Solar," said Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO.

Suntech was chosen to design and construct a BIPV system totaling 3MW on the China and Theme Pavilions at the World Expo Shanghai 2010. The project will be the largest BIPV installation in China.

-- Suntech supplied 5MW of Suntech solar panels for the largest solar plant in the Middle East, a 10MW solar electricity system to power Masdar City, the world's first carbon neutral city being built in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The solar system is being built and designed by leading Abu Dhabi based solar power system integrator, Enviromena Power Systems.

T. Rowe Price Em Europe & Mediterranean

Mutual Fund

(International)

RISK: LOW

No

TREMX

$20.07

$9.97

$40.00

$6.55

-50%

Mutual fund holdings have shifted from Eastern Europe emerging markets to Russian oil and gas markets. Looking for best opportunity to cash out. (4.13.09)

Trina Solar Limited

RISK: Medium

Chinese-based ADR

No

TSL

$38.99

$5.95

(3.2.09)

$12.79

$73.06

$5.61

-67%

+215%

Read the articles, "Green" in Vol. 6, Issue 2 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, Issue 4.

NOTE: The mantra this year continues to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve doubled your money, consider taking your profits.

4Q & FY 2008 earnings on February 19, 2008: Total net revenues were $831.9 million, an increase of 175.6%. Net income for the full year was $61.4 million, an increase of 71.7% from 2007. The Company also announced the planned establishment of the Company's North American operations base in San Francisco in 2009.

Westpac Bank (Australia)

No

WBK

$95.29

$52.46

(12.1.08)

$74.59

$144.04

$45.16

-22% &

+42%

Read the article, "Foreign Investing: From BRICs to Barbeys," in Vol. 5, Issue 7, for more information on why this Australian bank is the new attraction in the world. Annual General Meeting December 11, 2008. 2008 annual report: $3.9 billion in net income (after tax). Is merging with St. George. 

WisdomTree

NYC, USA

RISK: HIGH

Yes

WSDT

$2.95

$1.21

$3.50

$.52

-59%

See Vol. 4, issue 3, "Money Grows on WisdomTrees," and Vol. 5, Issue 2, "International Money Grows on WisdomTrees."

Announced 4Q and FY 2008 results on Feb. 5, 2009. The full year net loss was $29.0 million compared to $25.1 million in 2007. WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg commented, "These are challenging times, but these are also important times of change in the asset management industry as difficult market conditions have highlighted the importance of transparency, liquidity and tax efficiency like never before. Recognition of these structural advantages helped the ETF industry as a whole take in approximately $178 billion in net inflows in 2008 in stark contrast to the net outflows of mutual funds."

As of December 31, 2008, assets under management ("AUM") tied to the WisdomTree Indexes were $3.6 billion, down 21.8% since September 30, 2008. At the end of the fourth quarter, ETF AUM were $3.2 billion, down 22.0% from September 30, 2008. The severe decline in the valuation of global equity markets contributed to $925 million of net market depreciation of the WisdomTree ETFs in the fourth quarter. Despite domestic markets declining nearly 22% and international markets nearly 20%, net inflows into WisdomTree ETFs were $29.5 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, ETF AUM declined 30.2% primarily due to $2.3 billion in market declines despite almost $900 million in net inflows.

Launched New Zealand and South African currency ETFs on June 26, 2008, with the symbols BNZ and SZR respectively.

Jarrett Lilien, former E*TRADE FINANCIAL Acting CEO, President and Chief Operating Officer, joined the Board of Directors on November 14, 2008.

Stocks to Watch
Some of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List.  Read carefully to identify which is which!  

Note that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List, anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share prices.

Recent Additions:
Altair Nanotechnology (4.15.09)
American Superconductor (4.15.09)
Citigroup (4.1.09)
eBay (4.15.09)
FMC Corporation (5.4.09)
Google (4.15.09)
Maxwell Technologies (4.15.09)
MEMC Electronics (4.15.09)
Microsoft (4.15.09)
PowerShares Clean Energy fund (PBW)
Rio Tinto (RTP)
Satcon (4.15.09)
Sunpower (5.4.09)
Suntech (4.15.09)
Trina Solar (4.15.09)
Westpac (4.15.09)

Recent Deletions:
Apple (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
Applied Materials (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
Baidu (moved to Cooling Off List on 3.27.09)
First Solar (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)
Intel (moved to Cooling Off list on 5.4.09)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

5.4.09

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Altair Nano-technology

No

ALTI

$1.16

$1.16

$2.94

$0.60

--

Read "Life Begins With Li (Lithium)" Vol. 6, Issue 4.

American Superconductor

Yes

AMSC

$29.44

$29.44

$47.53

$8.22

--

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, Issue 3.

Big Lots

No

BIG

$30.28

$28.27

$34.88

$12.40

-7%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, Issue 6.

Canadian Imperial Bank

RISK: Medium

No

CM

$65.88

$47.30

$108.79

$30.64

-29%

Refer to the "Banking on Iraqi Dinars" article in Vol. 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now.

Citigroup

RISK: MEDIUM

No

C

$2.26

$3.14

$27.35

$.97

+39%

Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Bailed out by the Feds November 2008. 1Q 2009 results will be released on 4.17.09 at 6:30 a.m. ET.

eBay

No

EBAY

$16.80

$16.80

$32.10

$9.91

--

Forward P/E is 12.92.

FMC Corp.

No

FMC

$51.36

$51.36

$80.23

$28.53

--

Read "Life Begins with Lithium" from Vol. 6, Issue 4.

Google

No

GOOG

$393.69

$401.23

$602.45

$247.30

+2%

See Vol. 6, Issue 5 for "Hulu Your Heroes."

Maxwell Labs

No

MXWL

$10.25

$10.25

$14.75

$4.00

--

Read "Life Begins with Lithium" from Vol. 6, Issue 4.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$18.08

$18.08

$73.56

$10.00

--

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, Issue 3.

1Q 2009 results on 4.23.09: Summary of first quarter results:

* Net sales of $214.0 million
* Gross profit of $19.7 million (9.2% of net sales)
* Earnings of $0.01 per share
* Cash and investment balances of $1.3 billion

Net sales of $214.0 million, which represents a decrease of 49.7% from fourth quarter 2008 net sales of $425.7 million, and a decrease of 57.3% from first quarter 2008 net sales of $501.4 million. The sequential decrease in sales was primarily the result of lower wafer volumes for both semiconductor and solar applications and lower prices associated with semiconductor and solar products.

The company reported an operating loss during the quarter of $26.4 million, which compares to operating income of $164.8 million in the 2008 fourth quarter and $218.4 million in the 2008 first quarter. First quarter 2009 operating expenses, which include charges of $6.7 million relating to the previously announced layoffs in three of the company's manufacturing facilities, were $46.1 million, or 21.5% of sales, compared to $28.2 million, or 6.6% of sales, in the 2008 fourth quarter, and $40.9 million, or 8.2% of sales, in the 2008 first quarter.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$20.12

$20.12

$30.53

$14.87

--

Great blue chip. Buy at the best possible price.

NetGear

Silicon Valley, CA

RISK: MEDIUM

No

NTGR

$26.38

$15.67

$41.33

$8.21

-41%

With the financial crisis and the crush it has put on the consumer’s wallet, I would be wary about NetGear’s earnings reports in the coming quarters, since so many of the company’s many products are reliant upon the consumer electronics industry. Share price is getting hammered. I don’t think this trend is over yet.

Watch Natalie Pace’s Exclusive Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August 2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst & Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list (for the 2nd year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s Bravo Award for Business Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS gave NetGear’s Skype phone its Breakthrough Award.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF

No

PBW

$9.78

$9.78

$23.96

$5.78

--

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, Issue 3.

Rio Tinto

No

RTP

$180.79

$180.79

$558.65

$59.20

--

Earnings on 2.12.09: Record underlying EBITDA1 of $22.3 billion2, 60 per cent above 2007. Net earnings1 of $3.7 billion, 50 per cent below 2007. Net earnings include a charge of $8.4 billion related to asset impairments, partly offset by gains of $1.5 billion from asset divestments. Net debt reduced by $6.5 billion to $38.7 billion at 31 December 2008, with a goal of reducing debt by another $10 billion by the end of 2009.

Rio Tinto’s chairman Paul Skinner said, "The Group has responded decisively to markedly weaker demand conditions in its major markets by reducing capital and operating costs, and adjusting capacity where appropriate. The Group will make sufficient investment to maintain its growth options, in order to be well positioned for a recovery in global economic activity."

Order of Magnitude studies were completed at the Jadar lithium borates project in Serbia.

Ross Stores

No

ROST

$35.90

$38.56

$39.23

$21.23

+7%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, Issue 6.

Satcon

No

SATC

$2.30

$2.30

$3.51

$1.08

--

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, Issue 3.

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

Beijing, China

Small Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SOHU

$46.54

$57.58

$91.50

$34.10

+16%

See NataliePace.com ezines, Vol. 3, issue 4 and Vol. 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs of the year in 2007. Read the articles in Vol. 4, Issue 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network.

Sunpower

No

SPWRA

$30.26

$30.26

$107.00

$18.50

--

Read "The Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, Issue 3.

Announced 1Q earnings on April 23, 2009. Revenue for the 2009 first quarter was $214 million and compares to revenues of $401 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and $274 million in the first quarter of last year. Net loss was $5 million.

"The first quarter of 2009 was the most challenging quarter we've seen since SunPower went public in 2005," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO. "Our quarterly performance was impacted by seasonality, the continuing effects of the credit crisis and difficult economic conditions. Despite these headwinds we were able to deliver strong gross margins in our Components business and positive non-GAAP net income.

4.30.09: NJ’s largest utility, Public Service Electric and Gas, just financed having Sunpower install a 1.2-megawatt solar power system for Certified Steel Co.'s 330,000-square-foot facility in Hamilton, NJ. The system is due to be finished in July.

Sunpower just raised an additional $417.6 million through issuance of 10,350,000 Class A shares (at $22.00 per share) and 4.75% senior convertible debentures due 2014. (4.30.09)

Suntech Power Holdings

No

STP

$16.06

$16.06

$49.60

$5.09

--

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, Issue 3.

4.30.09: Dr. Stuart Wenham, Suntech's Chief Technology Officer, has won the top prize at the 2009 Inventor of the Year awards hosted by NewSouth Innovations (NSi), the technology commercialization company of the University of NSW, Australia (UNSW). He has invented or co-invented eight suites of solar cell technologies, and was instrumental in helping develop Suntech's breakthrough Pluto technology. Suntech is currently utilizing the Pluto technology to produce PV cells on commercial grade solar wafers with conversion efficiencies of approximately 19% on mono-crystalline PV cells and 17% on multi-crystalline PV cells - around 12% above standard screen printed crystalline silicon solar cells.

Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, said that Suntech will start shipping panels with the new Pluto technology "within the next few months." (4.30.09)

Trina Solar Ltd.

No

TSL

$17.56

$17.56

$53.50

$5.61

--

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, Issue 3.

4.30.09: 20-F Annual report (of foreign issuers): Net revenue: $832 million, compared to $302 million in 2007. Net income was $61 million, over $35 million in 2007. Net margins are 7.4%, down from 11.7% in 2007. Cash and cash equivalents are $132 million, but short-term borrowings are $249 million.

Westpac

No

WBK

$73.54

$73.54

$122.58

$45.16

--

Will issue it’s half-year "interim" results on May 6, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.

Wisdom Tree Chinese Yuan ETF

No

CYB

$24.85

$25.51

$25.72

$22.41

Flat

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from Vol. 5, Issue 2.

Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets Hi-Yield ETF

No

DEM

$53.08

$39.13

$58.78

$27.10

-26%

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from Vol. 5, Issue 2.

Wisdom Tree Emerging Markets ETF

No

DGS

$44.66

$31.92

$52.71

$0.21

-29%

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from Vol. 5, Issue 2. Hold off.

Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency ETF

No

ICN

$24.28

$23.18

$25.71

$20.42

-5%

Read the article, "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from Vol. 5, Issue 2.

Wisdom Tree International Financial

ETF

No

DRF

$23.25

$12.00

$31.49

$6.65

-48%

Add to Hot News in October 2009?

Read the articles, "International Investing," and "Banking on Iraqi Dinars," from Vol. 5, Issue 2. Most holdings are in international finance, with a big focus on Australia.

Cooling Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
American Express (AXP)
Apple (AAPL)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Baidu (BIDU)
First Solar (FSLR)
Fortress (FIG)
Intel (INTC)
Sears Holding Corporation (SHLD)
Time-Warner (TWX)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

DELETIONS:
None

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 5.4.09

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

American Express

Yes

AXP

$16.98

$27.28

$52.63

$14.72

+61%

This year’s mantra is take your profits early and often. AXP earned 35% gain in February. It remains on the list because we believe the downside potential still exists.

According to the Associated Press, Kenneth Chenault, CEO of AMEX, was one of the top 10 highest paid CEOs in 2008, at $42.9 million. The charge-off rate of bad debt rose to 8.5%, according to Forbes.

4.23.09 1Q 2009 earnings: income from continuing operations of $443 million, down 58 percent from $1.0 billion a year ago. Revenue was $5 billion. Debt is $461 million. Provisions for losses: $1.8 billion. Net income: $437 million, down from $991 million a year ago. $1.2 billion in pensions costs and unrealized securities, derivatives and currency losses were listed on the "contingency" section of the earnings report.

Read the article "American Express," from Vol. 6, Issue 2.

Apple Computer

Yes

AAPL

$132.07

$132.07

$192.24

$78.20

--

See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple Chips."

Jobs is taking a medical leave of absence until the end of June to focus on his health while Tim Cook, COO runs things. Jobs will remain CEO and will be involved in major strategic decisions. Meanwhile, though Apple’s 2Q was very strong, they are entering the toughest quarter of their cycle traditionally, at a time when the economy in the US (and worldwide) is under significant pressure.

2Q 2009 results on 4.21.09: Revenue of $8.16 billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.21 billion. Gross margin was 36.4 percent, up from 32.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 46 percent of the quarter's revenue.

Apple sold 2.22 million Macintosh(R) computers during the quarter, representing a three percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 11.01 million iPods during the quarter, representing three percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone units sold were 3.79 million representing 123 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter.

"We are extremely pleased to report the best non-holiday quarter revenue and earnings in our history," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO. "Apple's financial condition remains very robust, with almost $29 billion in cash and marketable securities on our balance sheet.

Applied Materials

No

AMAT

$12.76

$12.76

$21.75

$7.17

--

Leadership, product line and recessionary actions are all strong and bode well for AMAT going forward. Weathering the storm is imperative in the meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es of this company, which is hard to justify in a contracting environment. Almost $2 billion in cash and marketable securities.

Nanomanufacturing Technology solutions for the global semiconductor, flat panel display, solar and related industries, with a portfolio of equipment, service and software products. The Company’s customers include manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, flat panel liquid crystal displays (LCDs), solar photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules, and other electronic devices. It operates in four segments: Silicon, Applied Global Services, Display, and Energy and Environmental Solutions. On January 31, 2008, Applied acquired Baccini S.p.A. (Baccini), a supplier of automated metallization and test systems for crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar PV cells.

Sales were down 36% in the 1st quarter 2009. Switching emphasis from chips to solar energy… GAAP net loss was $133 million, GAAP net loss per share was $0.10. New orders were $903 million.

"We acted early and decisively to reduce costs in line with economic conditions that have resulted in an unprecedented decline in demand," said Mike Splinter, president and CEO. "With our leading technology and strong balance sheet, Applied is positioned to weather this recession and invest in new products and services."

Baidu

No

BIDU

$183.15

$248.25

$397.70

$100.50

+36%

Leading Chinese website for search (similar to Google). Expecting share price to continue to get battered. 25.12 P/E is high for a declining marketplace. (Advertising revenue models tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only 16 right now.)

4.27.09 1Q 2009 earnings: Total revenues in the first quarter of 2009 were $118.6 million, a 41.1% increase from the corresponding period in 2008. Net income in the first quarter of 2009 was $26.5 million, a 23.5% increase from the corresponding period in 2008. Cash and cash equivalents equal $405.5 million.

First Solar

No

FSLR

$193.09

$193.09

$317.00

$85.28

--

See "Solar Springs Up Again," article in Vol. 5, Issue 4.

1Q 2009 on 4.30.09: Quarterly revenues were $418.2 million, down from $433.7 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 and up from $196.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Net income for the first quarter of fiscal 2009 was $164.6 million or $1.99 per share on a fully diluted basis, up from $132.8 million or $1.61 per share on a fully diluted basis for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 and up from $46.6 million or $0.57 per share on a fully diluted basis for the first quarter of fiscal 2008.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details.

Fortress Investment Group

No

FIG

$3.57

$5.09

$19.50

$0.77

+43%

Release 1Q 2009 results on May 6, 2009.

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, Issue 12) and "Money Grows on Wisdom Trees," from Vol. 4, issue 3. Reported earnings on 3.15.09. FY 2008 GAAP net loss of GAAP net loss of $322 million. Principals in the company earned $222 million of that net loss.

Can you believe that they still have assets under management of $29.5 billion with all of these losses and the colossal salaries of the five principals? $222 million was paid to the principals, which put the net loss at $322 million, instead of just $100 million. Can you imagine paying yourself $222 million for losing $100 million? They did manage to get their debt down to $604 million…

Redemptions: Drawbridge division = $3.3 billion, hybrid hedge fun = $1.5 billion which should show up on the 1Q earnings report. Drawbridge redemptions had been suspended Nov. 30, 2008 (conveniently so they wouldn’t show up on the annual report?).

Intel

RISK: LOW

No

INTC

$16.66

$16.66

$25.29

$12.06

--

Intel is a great blue chip. However, business spending fell off a cliff in the recession. A P/E of 19 is probably too high if the recession continues.

Green: Intel and Google launched ClimateSaversComputing.org in 2007, with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption reduction by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partners to come on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices and Microsoft!

KB Home

RISK: HIGH

No

KBH

$59.00

$19.50

$48.67

$6.90

-67%

Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue 5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory. Housing is not expected to recover until the 2nd half of 2009 or even 2010, and while housing is in the toilet, so are housing REITs, like KB Home and Toll Brothers.

McMansions are going the way of Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying new real estate these days at prices that KB can make a profit on (considering their cost to carry the land, etc.)?

3.27.09 1Q 2009 earnings: Total revenues of $307.4 million in the first quarter of 2009 were down 61% from $794.2 million in the year-earlier quarter, primarily due to lower housing revenues. The Company generated a net loss of $58.1 million, or $.75 per diluted share, for the quarter ended February 28, 2009, compared to a net loss of $268.2 million, or $3.47 per diluted share, for the year-earlier quarter.

MGM Mirage

No

MGM

$26.79

$9.44

$100.50

$5.10

-65%

Get more information in Vol. 5, Issue 10 in the (No) Viva Las Vegas article. The City Center project looms as exceedingly problematic in today’s vast downturn of real estate in the Las Vegas area. Anticipating very bad news on this project in the near future. May 15, 2009 is the D-day for MGM to find a way to appease its creditors about the $14.3 billion in long-term debt that is due. Additionally, Dubai World appears to want out of the City Center project.

5.4.09 1Q 2009 results: Net revenue decreased 20% to $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Revenues were negatively impacted by increased convention cancellations - particularly in January and February and at the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts - and a continued decline in discretionary spending due to the weakened economy. Occupancy at the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts was unusually low in January, improved in February, and returned to a normalized level of approximately 95% in March. The convention cancellations forced the Company to shift hotel business to the leisure segment at lower room rates. As a result of these factors, Las Vegas Strip REVPAR(1) decreased by 34%, to $102 for the first quarter of 2009 compared to $154 in the first quarter of 2008.Total casino revenue declined 16%. Net income $105 million, compared to $118 million a year ago.

MGM has a new CEO and Chairman effective December 1, 2008. James J. Murren became the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, effective December 1, 2008. Former Chairman and CEO J. Terrence Lanni will continue as a member of the Board and will join the Diversity Committee. majority shareholder and billionaire Kirk Kerkorian was pleased and issued a statement applauding Lanni’s leadership and succession plan. (Sounds like Murren might have been Kerkorian’s succession plan…) Any way, can anyone resurrect Vegas in these turbulent times?

"Whether or not the CityCenter project goes into bankruptcy based on continual funding decisions or MGM goes into bankruptcy based on separate covenant negotiations is most contingent on whether MGM accepts the banks' terms," Bernstein's Research's Janet Brashear wrote to her clients.

Sears Holding

Yes

SHLD

$52.93

$62.85

$127.32

$26.80

+19%

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, Issue 12) and the "Discount"article (Vol. 5, Issue 6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been trying to get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for months or been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot for so long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all of the board directors at Sears are in the investment business, not the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott, a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board has any experience at all in retail.

4Q earnings on 2.26.09: Net income for the 4th quarter was $190 million as compared to net income of $426 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. Cash balances of $1.3 billion on 1.31.09. Spent $678 million on share repurchases in 2008. Total debt as of January 31, 2009 was $2.9 billion, down from $3.0 billion as of February 2, 2008. Annual report is due on or before April 1, 2009.

Annual Shareholder’s Meeting will be on Monday, May 4, 2009 in Hoffman Estates, IL.

You can read the shareholders letter from Chairman Eddie Lampert on the SearsHoldings.com website. This letter shows you just how much he (thinks he) knows about investing and banking and the financial crisis and what should have been handled differently and how little the focus is on actual retail. What in the world does Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to do with selling tires and tools and a strategy to get through the recession until people start buying things again? Alright, 10 minutes into the letter, and I have to call this a rant. Big red flag folks.

Still don’t have a CEO. Bruce Johnson is interim CEO. New CFO started last October, right before the preparation of the annual report began. The former CFO Miles Reidy decided that he needed to spend more time with his family than to put is name on the 2008 annual report.

Time Warner

No

TWX

$24.44

$24.44

$50.70

$17.81

--

Read the article, "Hulu Your Heroes," from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.

Toll Brothers

RISK: MEDIUM HIGH

No

TOL

$37.82

$20.73

$28.00

$15.49

-45%

Read the article, "Rupert Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue 5 in 2005, when we first reported on REITs as a burned out sector.

McMansions are going the way of Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying new real estate these days at the prices that TOLL needs to earn a profit? Real estate is expected to continue to decline through 2009, at minimum. (Toll Brothers cashed out hundreds of millions beginning as early as 2005.)

3.4.09 1Q 2009 results: net loss of $88.9 million, compared to a net loss a year ago of $96 million. revenues were $409.0 million, backlog was $1.04 billion and net (after cancellations) signed contracts were $127.8 million. These totals represented declines of 51%, 56%, and 66%, respectively, in dollars, and 45%, 51% and 59%, respectively, in units, compared to FY 2008's first-quarter results.

Cash on hand: $1 billion.

Wells Fargo

Yes

WFC

$20.05

$24.25

$44.69

$7.80

+21%

Added back to list on 4.22.09. See Sharing Wisdom bulletin board for notice.

Bank stress test results to be announced by the Treasury on May 7, 2009. See the calendar section at NataliePace.com for more info and a link.

See Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings in vol, 5, Issue 9, and Wells Fargo’s Great Depression, in Vol. 4, Issue 12. Announces 1Q earnings on April 22, 2009. Predicting $3 billion net income. "Our business momentum is strong, and we expect our operating margins to remain at the top of our peer group," said Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf. Expected results include:

* Total revenue of $20 billion, including another quarter of double-digit revenue growth at legacy Wells Fargo, up an estimated 16 percent…

1.28.09: WELLS FARGO REPORTS FULL YEAR NET INCOME OF $2.84 BILLION, $0.75 PER SHARE, FOURTH QUARTER NET LOSS OF $2.55 BILLION.

Record revenue of $42.23 billion, up 7 percent from prior year

Full year 2008 net charge-offs were $7.84 billion (1.97 percent of average total loans) compared

with $3.54 billion (1.03 percent) during 2007. Total wholesale charge-offs (excluding business

direct) increased $864 million from the prior year, including the previously referenced $294 million of Madoff-related losses, residential real estate construction and industries related to home building. Home Equity charge-offs totaled $2.16 billion (2.57 percent of average Home Equity loans) in 2008 compared with $596 million (0.73 percent) in 2007. Auto charge-offs totaled $1.23 billion (4.50 percent of average auto loans) in 2008 compared with $1.02 billion (3.45 percent) in 2007. Business Direct charge-offs totaled $819 million (6.96 percent of average business direct loans) in 2008 compared with $433 million (3.97 percent) in 2007.

Nonperforming assets totaled $9 billion and loans that are 90 days past due and still accruing totaled $12.65 billion. At $21+ billion, that is half of their "record revenue" for 2008. Be advised.

Wynn Resorts

No

WYNN

$95.42

$42.81

$176.14

$18.06

-55%

Check out the article, "(No) Viva Las Vegas" in Vol. 5, Issue 10.

1Q 2009 results will be announced on 5.5.2009.

Net revenues for 2008 were $3.0 billion, an 11.2% increase over 2007, primarily due to 35.6% higher revenues from Wynn Macau. Net income for the year was $210.2 million, or $1.92 per diluted share, compared to $258.1 million, or $2.34 per diluted share in 2007. Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2008 was $159.6 million.

As of December 31, 2008, there were $202 million in outstanding construction payables associated with the $2.3 billion Encore project budget.

Recently Deleted in 2008/2009:
Fannie Mae was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on 6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on 8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with 75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction). Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on 10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09.

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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NataliePace.com Calendar:

Don’t miss the Subscriber Teleconference this Wed., May 6, 2009, or Betty Nguyen's interview with Natalie Pace on CNN on Saturday, May 9, 2009,or the Get Rich and Green Retreat on June 11, 2009.

Betty Nguyen, anchor, CNN

The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.  Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.

See below for just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar section at NataliePace.com.

Subscriber Teleconference
Wednesday, May 6th, 2009
5:00PM through 5:40PM
Want to earn gains like 450% in U.S. Gold? Time to start resurrecting your nest egg? Wish you knew how to get Modern Portfolio Theory, ETFs and semi-annual rebalancing into your game plan? Bring your Questions! Get the call-in information on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board. You will need your passwords, so make sure that get the access information now!

Professional Business Women of California 2009 San Francisco Conference
Wednesday, May 6th, 2009
20th Anniversary Conference. Over 50 speakers, 200 exhibitors, 5,000 attendees. Join the largest gathering of professional women in the San Francisco Area for a day of learning, networking and inspiration. Workshops, lunch and keynotes from some of the most successful business leaders, providing you with the tools you need to succeed in the business world. Your company might pay for you to attend! Ask them!

Bank Stress Test Results To be Released by the Treasury Department
Thursday, May 7th, 2009
The Treasury Dept. will release the results of its bank stress tests today. The report could significantly impact the markets, particularly the banks receiving negative marks.

Natalie Pace on CNN
Saturday, May 9th, 2009
CNN anchor Betty Nguyen interviews Natalie Pace about her new book, Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and how people can profit from investing during a recession.

Alice Waters, Chez Panisse founder, speaks on Edible School Yards, Santa Monica, CA
Tuesday, May 19th, 2009
7:00PM through 9:00PM
Alice Waters, founder of Chez Panisse and the Chez Panisse Foundation and an international governor of Slow Food, will speak in Santa Monica about her experience bringing the Edible Schoolyard program to public schools. Benefits a local public school.

Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com Twitter-in with your Questions!
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009
9:00AM through 9:30AM
Host Shaun Daily interviews Natalie Pace on how to make money in these crazy times! Learn how you own Wall Street and have the power to stop the bailout and start the resurrection of a new world.

Verdi's La Traviatta at LA Opera!
Thursday, May 21st, 2009
7:30PM through 11:00PM
Verdi’s heart-rending story of a Parisian courtesan with a sordid past and no future features some of the composer’s most ravishing and popular music.

Get Rich and EnRich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
Thursday, May 21st through Saturday, May 23rd, 2009
3-day retreat with Natalie Pace. Resurrect, resurrect and rehab your life and nest egg. Learn how to profit in downtrending, turbulent markets. Only 14 people at this intimate retreat! SOLD OUT! (There are still a few seats in the June Retreat. Get more info on the home page at NataliePace.com.)

Deepak Chopra & Marianne Williamson. LA, CA
Saturday, May 23rd, 2009
9:00AM through 6:00PM
The Soul of Success: Consciousness and the Economy. Deepak Chopra and Marianne Williamson lead a day-long seminar at the Ritz-Carlton in Marina del Rey, CA. Learn the difference between money and wealth and the spiritual laws that can center your life during turbulent times.

Sophia 2010 World Conference, Bulgaria
Monday, May 25th, 2009
Sophia 2010 is a major world conference to achieve global goals to improve social conditions, preserve nature and honor spirituality towards a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world.

Memorial Day
Monday, May 25th, 2009
Memorial Day was originally called Decoration Day. It is a day of remembrance for those who have died in the service of our nation.

Revelation 2009, Atlanta, GA
Thursday, May 28th, 2009
Agape's Annual Revelation Conference 2009 is hosted by Michael Bernard Beckwith, founder of Agape Int'l Spiritual Center, and Dr. Rickie Byars Beckwith, the artistic director of the Agape International Choir. Be inspired. Supercharge your spiritual path.

T. Harv Eker's Extreme Wealth School: Los Angeles
Thursday, June 4th through Sunday, June 7th, 2009
Money gurus teach you how to invest like the rich do, in this 4-day educational/blueprint changing intensive. Natalie has been a speaker for the last few years. Will she speak again this year? Hmmm...

Step Up Inspiration Awards, Beverly Hills, CA
Friday, June 5th, 2009
12:00PM through 2:30 PM
Honor Marcia Cross, Lisa Ling and Lauren Zalaznick at a Step Up Fashion Show and Luncheon to benefit teen girls, mentoring programs and college!

Celebrate Your Life! Conference, Chicago
Friday, June 5th, 2009
Meet All Your Favorite Authors in One Powerful Weekend Event! Michael Bernard Beckwith, Rickie Byars Beckwith, Neale Donald Walsch and more...

Get Rich and Green Retreat with Natalie Pace, Santa Monica, CA
Thursday, June 11th through Saturday, June 13th, 2009
When you check off the boxes blindly, you are invested in the Bailout Index. When you learn Modern Portfolio Theory, ETFs and rebalancing, you have a blueprint that is as easy as a pie chart that makes you rich. Just 14 people in a boardroom setting taught hands on for three full days by #1 stock picker, Natalie Pace. Don’t miss this once in a lifetime opportunity. Your life will be empowered forever. You spend hundreds of thousands to learn how to be a good income earner. Spend a fraction of that learning how to be a great investor!

Forbes CEO Forum. Scotland
Sunday, June 14th, 2009
The Gleneagles Hotel, Scotland, UK. The Global Innovation Machine: Fueling New Growth in Tough Times. Keynote speakers include Steve Forbes, Stephanie Bell-Rose, Managing Dir. Goldman Sachs, Lady Barbara Thomas, Chairman of the UK Atomic Energy Authority and more.

Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is by Natalie Pace.


VISION: To build a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars, radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news, information and education, presented in an entertaining format, across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
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