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The
Oracle Turns 80.
by Natalie
Pace.
Should
you invest in Berkshire Hathaway while it’s trading at a 3-year
low?
 |
| Warren
Buffet |
Warren Buffett
was born on August 30, 1930 and began investing at the age of 12.
Eighty years later, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, is one of the
largest companies on Wall Street, at $147 billion. Warren Buffett
is one of the most influential men of the century, and, at least
up until now, is considered to be one of the most successful investors
of all time, averaging a 20% annualized return since 1965.
It’s hard to
imagine the Oracle of Omaha slowing down, but reigning over Wall
Street for five decades buys a place in history (and surely a monument
in Omaha, Nebraska), not eternal life. At the age of 80, Buffett
is still the man primarily responsible for the investment decisions
at Berkshire Hathaway, as well as CEO of the corporation, and investors
who haven’t noticed his age in the past, should take note now. The
financial storms that have flattened Wall Street are centered in
the core business of Berkshire Hathaway, which could elevate the
heart rate of even a normally unflappable, Snickers-loving CEO.
Despite his
"Aw Shucks" plain-talking pretense of staying small town,
and despite basing his company out of Omaha, Nebraska, Buffett is
about as connected – even royal -- as an American can get. He was
there to invest in (help) Goldman Sachs when they needed dough to
shore up their balance sheets. He underwrites many of the state
and city municipal bonds in the U.S. He was an advisor to Arnold
Schwarzenegger’s gubernatorial bid. His bridge-paying buddy is Bill
Gates. And his annual meeting is a festival for shareholders, who
pay a princely price of admission -- $95,000 for one Class A share
and $3,111 for one Class B share (as of 7.29.09).
But at 80, can
the Oracle of Omaha still read the cards on Wall Street? Can a kingdom
of investors (there are over 1.55 million shares outstanding) really
rely upon the continued health and sagacity of an elderly, hands-on
kingpin?
Upon reading
the annual letter from Buffett, published in February of 2009, there
is no doubt that Buffett is still sharp, plain speaking and bullish
on America. However, the Devil is in the details. The foundation
of the Berkshire Hathaway legacy is no longer resting upon the rock
of Warren Buffett. It is now a part of the slip sliding sand that
eroded our nation’s banks, insurance companies and homebuilders.
Sure, you can
point to the symptoms – the boom/bust cycle of subprime loans and
the DOT COM before that. But the fundamental root of our nation’s
problems has been and continues to be the unaddressed American reality
that so many of our Baby Boomers are retiring and were promised
a free ride. This is one of the biggest reasons why our airlines
have been in a cycle of bankruptcy for a decade, why our auto manufacturers
are bankrupt and why the premium Blue Chip Index became the Bailout
Index. The older the company, the more pension problems it is likely
to have.
Berkshire Hathaway's
net earnings for the first quarter of 2009 was a loss of $1.5 billion,
as opposed to earnings of $940 million a year ago. By March 31,
2009, cash and cash equivalents were down to $25.539 billion, from
$44.329 billion at the beginning of the year. The biggest drains
on cash flow were insurance and financial products.
Why isn’t this
a Wall Street headline? Financial news reporters value having Warren
Buffett on their shows and available for commentary. Fact checkers
have been furloughed for the summer. It is only the rogue journalist
who dares to question the reign of the emperor or wonder whether
he (or at least his investments) might be naked, or, dare I say,
over-exposed. Insurance, financial products, media, municipal bonds,
banks, airlines and housing are the worst industries of the past
two years in the U.S., and Buffett’s exposure in these areas is
substantial.
Municipal
Bonds
City,
state and other local entities come to Berkshire Hathaway Assurance
Company ("BHAC") as an insurer of their tax-exempt bonds.
At the end of 2007, all of the major players in this insurance division
had fallen into big trouble, increasing BHAC’s exposure. In Buffett’s
own words (from his February 27, 2009 Letter to Shareholders), "The
pension liabilities I talked about in last year’s report will be
a huge contributor to [city and state municipality] woes. Many cities
and states were surely horrified when they inspected the status
of their funding at yearend 2008. The gap between assets and a realistic
actuarial valuation of present liabilities is simply staggering."
Financial
Products
Berkshire
Hathaway owns $37.1 billion in derivative contracts. According to
Warren Buffett, all of four indices would have to go to zero in
order for Berkshire Hathaway to lose that full amount. If all indices
fell 25% from the value at the inception of the contract, Berkshire
Hathaway would "owe about $9 billion," payable between
2019 and 2028.
In addition
to this exposure, Berkshire Hathaway owns 13% of American Express,
4.3% of U.S. Bancorp and 7.2% of Wells Fargo. American Express’
earnings are off 21% from last year, and the net income is less
than half. U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report that
they are much healthier than their peers, but financials continue
to be the most volatile industry on Wall Street, with the greatest
share price declines when investor sentiment heads south. The second
quarter rebound in financials should help the 2nd quarter
earnings of Berkshire Hathaway, however, which should be announced
with the next two weeks.
Media
Buffett
owns 18.4% of Washington Post Company. With the migration of content
out of print and to the online portals, the ability to charge for
content has been wiped out. Former news stalwarts, like the Wall
Street Journal and The New York Times, have sold a piece
or all of themselves to stay in business. Almost all of the major
media corporations have fired or furloughed some of their finest
writers, trimmed back investigative news budgets, are accepting
content from bloggers on their sites and are operating with a far
leaner staff. The net loss for the first quarter of 2009 at Washington
Post Company was $19.5 million ($2.04 loss per share), down from
net income of $39.3 million ($4.08 per share) in the first quarter
of last year.
Housing
Clayton
Homes, Wimbledon Properties and Southern Energy Homes. Clayton Homes
is a manufactured homes provider, at a time when home building is
at a standstill and has been all year. Revenues in the first quarter
of 2009 from manufactured housing and finance activities (Clayton
Homes) declined $90 million (11%) from 2008, while earnings were
off by 63%, at $42 million, compared to $115 million in 2008, according
to the Berkshire Hathaway 1st quarter 2009 earnings report.
Vanity
Holdings: Net Jets
Revenues
of NetJets in 2009 also declined significantly. According to the
Berkshire Hathaway earnings report, "The decrease in revenues
and pre-tax earnings reflects the negative impact of the global
recession on substantially all of Berkshire’s other service businesses
and in particular, NetJets’ fractional ownership business which
reported a pre-tax loss of $96 million, as compared to pre-tax earnings
of $45 million in 2008."
Warren Buffett’s
answer to the challenges of the times is an invitation to his fan
base to buy insurance from him, which is couched as an exclusive
opportunity, more than a desperate appeal. In a special message,
Warren Buffett encouraged people to save money by insuring their
autos with GEICO, to buy their gifts at Borsheim’s and to purchase
an annuity through Berkshire Hathaway Life Insurance Company.
What the Buffett
followers may not realize, however, is that’s the easiest way for
Buffett to raise capital. "Insurance float" accounts for
$60 billion – over half – of the assets of Berkshire Hathaway. This
money doesn’t technically belong to the company, but, in Buffett’s
words, "we hold and invest for our own benefit. In fact, we
were paid $2.8 billion to hold our float during 2008."
That doesn’t appear to be the returns destined for 2009, however.
When the markets
were returning 9% every year on average, Buffett was able to more
than double that return, with a 20% annualized return for investors
since 1965. In 2008, the S&P500 lost 37% of its value, whereas
Berkshire Hathaway shareholders’ lost only 10%. However, much of
that share price float or buoyancy, during this recession,
is based directly upon Buffett’s reputation, rather than a solid
analysis of the business, losses and exposure. If the underlying
risks of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio become a headline -- and
with the cash negative operations being posted by the company, this
is a possibility -- investors could begin to lose faith in their
guru.
Be aware, however,
that as long as Buffett is willing to comment to gushing fan/journalists
on-air, the spotlights will be on the man and genius – not on a
company that is heavily invested in and exposed to the most vulnerable
industries and municipalities that have been and continue to implode
in America. Because of the media’s maniacal fascination with the
Oracle of Omaha (and his truly spectacular track record), Berkshire
Hathaway is a very risky "short." Additionally, the federal
government has proven itself to be willing to bail out insurance
companies and allow financial services organizations to slide billions
in losses off of the books.
Now, before
the storm, the prudent investor is wise to consider the shift of
the winds. Carefully consider any existing investments in Berkshire
Hathaway and tiptoe lightly, opting for 1000 times the research
you would normally do, before wading into a new investment with
the world’s most admired capitalist.
As for Buffett’s
invitation to purchase an annuity, when insurance companies are
being bailed out (hmmm... So you’re more solid than your insurance
company), making sure that your nest egg is insured is critical.
Annuities are not FDIC insured, whereas many bank accounts and IRAs.
Read and understand the fine print of the bailout plan before you
open the account. AIG, Lehman Bros., Bear Stearns, General Motors,
most of our airlines, Citigroup, Bank of America, et al. are all
bankrupt and/or bailed out. Berkshire is not on that list, but the
exposures that the business has to these same industries make the
company more vulnerable than is being reported.
Full Disclosure:
I own put positions in American Express and Wells Fargo. I do not
own positions in any other companies mentioned in this article.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, a featured teacher in
the movie, Spiritual Liberation, and CEO of one of the most respected,
independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She
has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has
partnered content with Forbes.com,
Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more. She has appeared
on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC, Time Magazine, More Magazine,
USA Today, NPR and national radio shows. For more information please
visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on
financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned
and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article
is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus,
to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making.
The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended
to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult
an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or
the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and
patience. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant
its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as
of the date of this publication and are subject to change without
notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities,
financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable
for all investors.
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Beware
of Fake Check Scams.
Investor
Alert by FINRA.org.
We are issuing
this Alert to warn the public about "mystery shopper" and "modeling"
scams using checks that appear to be from legitimate companies—including
FINRA.
In each of these
scams, you are sent an authentic-looking check. In many instances,
the name of a real company appears on the check as well as real
account and routing numbers. You are instructed to deposit the check
in your bank account and then transfer a portion of the money to
someone else. Days later, your bank informs you that the check was
counterfeit and that you are liable for the amount withdrawn, usually
several thousand dollars. You’ve been scammed.
We are aware
that fraudsters behind some of these scams have created fake FINRA
and "NASD Regulations" [sic] checks. (NASD Regulation was a subsidiary
of FINRA's predecessor, NASD.) Because it can be very difficult
to tell a real check from a counterfeit one, we are urging consumers
to be cautious if someone they don't know asks them to cash a check
and then transfer the money.
This Alert describes
two fake check scams that we’ve identified, offers tips on avoiding
these types of frauds, and tells you where to turn for help if you
are a victim of one of these scams.
Mystery
Shopping Scam
Fraudsters
lure victims by posting ads for mystery shoppers in job classifieds,
such as on the popular Web site Craigslist (www.craigslist.org).
When victims respond to the ads, they are led to believe that they
have been hired as mystery shoppers to evaluate the services of
money transfer companies, such as MoneyGram. Victims are then sent
checks that appear to be from legitimate companies—including FINRA—and
instructed to deposit the checks in their bank accounts, then withdraw
most of the money and wire it to someone else—often a purported
fellow mystery shopper. Victims are told to keep several hundred
dollars of the money as payment. When the checks are later discovered
to be phony, the banks reverse the deposit and the victims are left
liable for the money withdrawn, usually several thousand dollars.
Modeling
Scam
Typically
this scam starts out with a victim responding to an online posting—or
the victim may have posted information online, such as with a modeling
clearing house. Either way, the victim eventually gets "hired" by
the fraudsters to model and receives an email with instructions.
Similar to the mystery shopping scam, the victim then receives a
legitimate looking check and is told to cash the check, wire some
portion of the proceeds to a third party—such as a "supervising
crew"—and keep the remainder as payment.
How
can I protect myself?
To
avoid fake check scams, follow these tips:
* Don’t
"keep the change." No legitimate company will overpay
you and ask that you wire the difference back to the company or
to some third party. Be extremely wary of any offer—in any context—to
accept a check or money order in an amount greater than you are
owed.
* Call the
company directly to verify the check. Remember that some fake
checks will have a legitimate company’s actual account number with
the correct bank routing number. Call the company directly to verify
the check, using a telephone number you obtain on your own from
directory assistance. Do not use any telephone number that appears
on the check or in any instructions you receive. For FINRA checks,
call (301) 590-6500.
*Know the
hallmarks of fraud. Fake check scams typically have a number
of red flags, such as:
*Typos:
Watch out for online postings or emails that are riddled with typos
and poor grammar.
*Mismatched
names: Compare the name of the person or company posting the
opportunity with the name on the check you receive—and beware if
they don’t match.
*Pressure
to act quickly: Be aware that it can take 10 days or even more
for your bank to determine that a check is counterfeit. Don’t wire
or transfer funds until you have verified with your bank that the
check has cleared—even if the bank allows you to withdraw the money
sooner.
Where to
Turn for Help
FINRA
urges victims of fake check scams to contact one of the following
organizations right away:
* Your local
police
* The Internet
Crime Complaint Center (a partnership between the FBI and
the National White Collar Crime Center)
* The U.S.
Postal Inspections Service (if the check arrived by
U.S. mail)
Resources
* American Bankers Association Education Foundation, How
To Protect Yourself Against Cashier's Check Fraud.
*FTC Consumer
Alert, The
Secrets of Mystery Shopping Revealed (January 2009).
* Internet Crime
Complaint Center, Work-at-Home
Scams (February 2009).
* National Consumers League, FakeChecks.org
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They
Broke It. We bought It.
by Paul
Woods, President, CEO and CIO, Odyssey Advisors LLC.
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| Paul Woods,
President, CIO & CEO, Odyssey Advisors LLC. |
According to
Obama’s Chief of Staff, "You never want a serious crisis to
go to waste, and what I mean by that is it's an opportunity to do
things you didn't think you could do before." On the top of
the list of things our ruling class didn’t think they could get
away with before is making direct investments in private companies.
This started with George Bush and has expanded under the Obama administration.
In the last
few months, taxpayers became investors in Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac,
AIG, and an assortment of the country’s worst managed commercial
and investment banks. Aside from inept management, what these have
in common is enough foresight to contribute generously to both political
parties and build up the equivalent of a rainy day fund. When that
rainy day came, they were rewarded with a bailout instead of bankruptcy
and taxpayers ended up with a portfolio of broken companies.
In the second
quarter, Chrysler and General Motors were added to the taxpayer
portfolio as both companies fit the required profile. Going into
reorganization, GM bondholders were owed $27 billion while the UAW
was owed $20 billion. Coming out, the UAW will receive a 50% recovery
of their debt in cash and a 39% stake in the new company while bondholders
will receive no cash and a 10% stake. Care to take a wild guess
which side contributed generously to the Obama campaign?
Management of
the new Government Motors will consist of political appointees and
union members, which might be the only way to make investors nostalgic
for the previous management. Keeping the UAW involved only postpones
the inevitable, as unions have a long tradition of killing their
hosts in the private sector. However, combustion engine technology
is now living on borrowed time. Electricity is the fuel of the future
and a new type of car probably requires a new type of carmaker.
Brands like Pontiac and Oldsmobile will disappear, but they will
be replaced by Tesla, Fisker, Aptera, and many others you haven’t
heard of yet.
In the second
quarter of 2009, good things came in the smallest packages, growth
nosed out value in a photo finish at the end of the quarter, and
large company stocks were the segment to avoid. For reference, here’s
the stock market segment scorecard for the second quarter of 2009:
|
|
Symbol
|
3/31/09
|
6/30/09
|
% Change
|
|
All
Cap Growth
|
RAG
|
286.50
|
333.23
|
16.31%
|
|
All
Cap
|
RUA
|
461.14
|
535.62
|
16.15%
|
|
All
Cap Value
|
RAV
|
527.91
|
612.22
|
15.97%
|
| |
|
Microcap
|
DFSCX
|
6.86
|
8.66
|
26.24%
|
|
Small
Cap. Growth
|
RUO
|
231.51
|
285.18
|
23.18%
|
|
MidCap
Growth
|
RDG
|
240.24
|
289.05
|
20.32%
|
|
Small
Cap.
|
RUT
|
422.75
|
508.28
|
20.23%
|
|
MidCap
|
RMC
|
536.01
|
644.27
|
20.20%
|
|
MidCap
Value
|
RMV
|
549.21
|
659.38
|
20.06%
|
|
Small
Cap. Value
|
RUJ
|
586.68
|
688.15
|
17.30%
|
|
Large
Cap. Value
|
RLV
|
401.55
|
465.18
|
15.85%
|
|
Large
Cap.
|
RXA
|
433.67
|
502.27
|
15.82%
|
|
Large
Cap. Growth
|
RLG
|
354.15
|
410.05
|
15.78%
|
Source:
Telmet Orion
Within these
market segments, financials, clean energy, and REITs were the best
performers. Clean energy got a boost from higher oil prices and
the likelihood of more spending in this area, while financials and
REITS may have just been a dead cat bounce. Equity investors were
also betting on a recovery as economically sensitive industries
outperformed the more stable segments of the economy. For reference,
here’s the stock market index and industry group scorecard for the
second quarter of 2009:
|
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Symbol
|
3/31/09
|
6/30/09
|
% Change
|
|
Dow
Industrials
|
INDU
|
7,608.92
|
8,447.00
|
11.01%
|
|
Nasdaq
Composite
|
COMPN
|
1,528.59
|
1,835.04
|
20.05%
|
|
S&P
500 Index
|
SPX
|
797.87
|
919.32
|
15.22%
|
|
Russell
3000
|
RUA
|
461.14
|
535.62
|
16.15%
|
| |
|
Financials
|
S40
|
119.01
|
160.76
|
35.08%
|
|
Clean
Energy
|
ECO
|
77.46
|
101.13
|
30.56%
|
|
REITs
|
RMZ
|
335.52
|
429.56
|
28.03%
|
|
Transportation
|
TRAN
|
2,684.08
|
3,234.56
|
20.51%
|
|
Capital
Goods
|
S2010
|
171.12
|
204.12
|
19.28%
|
|
Consumer
Services
|
S25
|
154.82
|
182.15
|
17.65%
|
|
Technology
|
IXT
|
156.75
|
182.23
|
16.26%
|
|
Basic
Industries
|
IXB
|
228.88
|
266.06
|
16.24%
|
|
Commercial
Services
|
S2020
|
99.73
|
115.14
|
15.45%
|
|
Energy
|
IXE
|
426.79
|
481.54
|
12.83%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
S30
|
218.77
|
238.18
|
8.87%
|
|
Biotech
|
BTK
|
640.85
|
697.17
|
8.79%
|
|
Utilities
|
IXU
|
259.79
|
282.38
|
8.70%
|
|
Health
Care
|
HCX
|
283.04
|
306.45
|
8.27%
|
Source:
Telmet Orion
In the bond
market, interest rates continued to rise and we started to see money
moving out of Treasury bonds as yield spreads in Government agencies
and corporates narrowed. Treasury yields peaked early in June and
then declined a bit on announced plans by the Federal Reserve to
purchase more debt. Toward the end of the quarter, traders began
to believe that the central bank will do whatever necessary to keep
borrowing costs low, and the odds of higher interest rates by the
end of the year declined from 55% to 44% according to the pricing
of futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. However, with borrowing
increasing and major lenders like China and Russia indicating a
reduced appetite for more Treasury bonds, it’s hard to see interest
rates going anywhere but up over the longer term. Because rates
on U.S. Treasuries are at low levels, we believe there is greater
value in U.S. Government Agencies, FDIC insured certificates of
deposit, municipals of the highest quality, and selective corporates
outside of the financial and insurance sectors.
|
Current
Yield
|
3/31/09
|
6/30/09
|
%
Change
|
|
90
day Treasury Bills
|
0.21%
|
0.20%
|
-4.76%
|
|
5 Year
Treasury Notes
|
1.67%
|
2.53%
|
51.50%
|
|
10
Year Treasury Notes
|
2.71%
|
3.51%
|
29.52%
|
Source: Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
About the best
that can be said of the economy is it probably won’t get much worse.
The recent government-spending spree is likely to be paid for by
taxes on health care benefits, a massive new tax on energy under
the guise of cap & trade, and higher taxes on incomes that will
probably lead to an extended period of high unemployment and poor
economic growth. However, while earnings expectations continue to
come down, corporate profits will face much easier comparisons in
the second half of 2009, particularly in the fourth quarter. We
expect earnings to bottom by the end of the year and to be higher
in 2010, which could lend continued support to stock prices. Besides,
with microscopic yields on money market funds and continued uncertainties
about where we’ll find enough lenders to finance the massive increase
in Treasury debt, stocks are finally starting to look like the least
bad of the investment alternatives.
About
Paul Woods
Paul Woods
is the President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment
Officer of Odyssey
Advisors. He has over 35 years of experience in the
investment management and research analysis of common stocks. He
manages the Odyssey Clean Energy Portfolio. Paul has done a great
deal of independent research on clean energy and has written multiple
articles on various segments of this industry.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however Odyssey
Advisors LLC does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions
constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without notice. This material is not intended
as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Copyright
© 2009 by Odyssey Advisors LLC.
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Secure Your Own Oxygen
Mask First.
by Natalie
Pace.
8
Ways to Survive the Crash of the U.S. Economy.
Are you making
your bank, insurance company and credit card company rich? Wouldn’t
you rather be increasing your own bottom line and balance sheet?
 |
| Photo by:
Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. (c) 2008. |
Banks, insurance
companies and credit card companies were in trouble in 2007, so
the government stepped in to bail them out. Essentially, since the
"government" is funded by your tax dollars, you are the
savior of your bank.
But, banks,
insurance companies and credit card companies have a strange way
of thanking their heroes. Instead of working with you to secure
a mortgage payment you can afford (which is why most of the foreclosures
are occurring), many banks are foreclosing on the property, harassing
the owner and/or letting the foreclosure sit in limbo for months
on end. In truth, since the bulk of the loan is interest (not principal),
there is a lot of room for the bank to see upsides over the long
term, even while working with you for the next few years. But many
are choosing to be aggressive and mean-spirited toward their customers
(even though they wooed you into the loans in the first place).
Meanwhile, the top revenue source these days is overdraft fees,
up to $35 per occurrence.
Credit card
companies are slashing credit lines, changing terms, increasing
the interest and harassing even their best customers. Premium clients
are now seeing their credit ratings suffer – through no fault of
their own.
Insurance companies
are downplaying their exposures – AIG’s losses would have wiped
out the annuity/nest eggs of countless Americans – while being trigger-happy
to cancel your policy or change the terms at the first sign of a
late payment.
Instead of being
grateful for the bailout from taxpayers, the banking industry has
declared war on their customers, in the name of shoring up a healthier
balance sheet, with practices that make it easy to understand why
usury is a major sin in most religions. Overdraft fees, fees for
transferring your own money between your own accounts online and
more are making the average price of a bank account hundreds, and
sometimes even thousands of dollars for distressed Americans, many
of whom are behind on their mortgage payments already and struggling
to find solutions.
It is time to
realize that the U.S. economy has not yet recovered. The second
wave of banking problems may be buried in the “massaged” accounting
of earnings statements that claim stellar earnings, slide billions
in losses off the books, refuse to account for the billions in abandoned
real estate, etc. (FYI: This is what the telecommunications industry
did in the early 2000s, before the scandals of Global Crossing,
Worldcom, et al. The telecoms found a way to keep phantom earnings
on the books that weren’t ever going to be collected, mostly in
the form of overcharges that they were slow to credit.)
Whether the
economy is starting to recover (as the pundits and politicians are
trying to convince us) or not, the smart American will immediately
secure their own oxygen mask to avoid a complete crash of their
personal fiscal livelihood. Below are eight things you can do to
ensure that you are in a position to get rich first – ahead of your
bank, insurance company or credit card company.
- Give yourself
a raise. The
first thing you must do each month is to put money into a tax-protected
retirement
account. Did you ever wonder how O.J. Simpson could play golf
and have a mansion in Florida when he owed $33 million to the
Goldman family? It was because he had pensions and retirement
plans, which cannot be seized by people claiming that you owe
them dough. Contribute at least 10% of whatever income you make
(including unemployment income) to your own IRA, 401(k), health
savings account, etc. Secure as many tax protected accounts as
it takes, including health savings accounts, SEP/ROTH/Traditional
IRAs, 401(k)s and more! Write this check FIRST, before you pay
bills.
- Cash is
King. Check
the holdings in your stock portfolio. Make sure you have at least
a percent
equal to your age SAFE and liquid in your stock portfolios. Add
an additional 10-20% safe because we are in a recession. Safe
and liquid investments include Treasury Bills, which can be purchased
through TreasuryDirect.gov, FDIC insured Certificates of Deposit
and even highly rated Treasury Bill funds. Bonds are risky these
days because formerly high rated bonds (like the auto manufacturers)
are getting paid off on pennies on the dollar and municipalities
are not able to balance their budgets.
- Build
assets. Even
during a recession, there are areas of the market that will do
well. So, make
sure that you have researched and invested in some hot industries.
If you are taking your profits at least once a year, chances are
that you are outperforming the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial
Average. Read Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is for tips on proper
stock diversification, Modern Portfolio Theory, annual rebalancing
strategies and other market maneuvers designed to make you money!
If a retired schoolteacher can earn back 15% of her nest egg in
just a few months in 2009, imagine what you can do!
If you want
to jumpstart your learning (and have new strategies to employ
for the rest of your life), come to the October 8-10, 2009 Get
Rich and Green Retreat in Santa Monica, CA. You can get $600 off
the price, if you register NOW before August 15, 2009. Get more
info at the Get
Rich and Green banner ad on the home page at NataliePace.com.
- Build
Up Reserves. Cash
gives you options, even if your credit rating is slashed, so be
sure that you
are depositing money into your IRA, even before you pay off your
debt. (Your retirement plan is a part of your assets!) Your ability
to put a 20% down payment on a house is more important than anything,
and the best way to pay down debt (and get better terms) is to
have increased income and assets. No matter how much your debtors
hound you, your time and focus must be invested in creating more
assets and income, so that the debt is a smaller portion of your
life. If you focus on the debt, you’ll be paying it off forever
– making the credit card company rich, while keeping yourself
poor, in the bargain. Since the credit card companies have been
slashing credit lines, credit ratings are a complete fluke these
days any way. You could be the best risk on the planet, but if
your lines of credit have been slashed, your reputation has been
sullied, through no fault of your own. One of the best ways to
build up reserves is going to be through the tax-protected retirement
account (#1 on this list).
- Health
Savings Account, not Health Insurance. Create
your own insurance plan with a Health Savings Account. It’s probably
more
solid than the insurance company’s plan any way! How? The health
savings account operates similar to a retirement account in that
it’s tax protected and part of your financial freedom strategy
and asset base. If you need the money for an illness, it’s there.
If you don’t, it’s still yours (not the insurance company’s).
And in the meantime, you get to invest the money for potential
gains, instead of throwing money away each month on insurance
premiums.
What
are the benefits to having your own health savings account? Your
own plan is not going to be lost if you switch jobs or cannot
pay your monthly premiums. Additionally, this builds up your "reserves,"
as well as your asset base, all of which will help you to keep
and grow your wealth, instead of making the insurance companies
rich on your medical premiums. Ask your broker about how to open
up a health savings account. Once you do this, you can perhaps
purchase catastrophic medical insurance (which is much cheaper)
and focus on staying healthy. All of this is an investment in
you that will never go away.
- Partner
Up. In
a recession, everyone is under pressure. It is the perfect time
to look at a competitor
and say, "Hey. Why don’t we partner up to reduce costs, innovate
and position ourselves to come out of the downturn as the leader
of the pack?!" Microsoft is doing that with Yahoo. Nonprofit
organizations might save themselves from the dried up funding
sources by combining and reducing some of their basic operational
costs and teaming up to get contributions from their donors. Now,
more than ever, think partner, instead of competitor.
- Hang
on to as much as you can. Whether
it is convincing your aging parents that your guesthouse is better
than
the nursing home, or convincing your bank to modify your loan,
call in help and hang on to as much of your healthy assets as
you can. Write letters. Create income. Leverage. Partner up. Modify
your home loan AND rent out your second home (if you can). Get
creative about solving your issues. Be willing to give up something
to hang onto the best of what you own, whether it is that spare
room or some of the revenues or the spare time that your receptionist
can use answers the phones for another business.
- Get into
a low-interest, fixed, assumable loan. You
can read up more on this from my article in the June
2009 ezine (Vol. 6, Issue
6), but, in an environment when interest rates are still the lowest
they have been in a century, the low-interest, fixed, assumable
loan could be the best investment of the next five years. Why?
If you wish to sell your home or building or business in 3-7 years
and interest rates have doubled, your assumable, low-interest,
fixed loan could make it the most attractive investment on the
block! The cost of purchase will be reduced significantly if the
buyer can assume your low-interest loan, instead of one at twice
the cost from the bank.
At this time,
don’t allow your time to be consumed by the calls of aggressive
bill collectors. Don’t complain about the actions of your bank,
insurance company and/or credit card company. Be pre-emptive. Make
sure that your income, your focus, your work ethic and your intelligence
are all serving to make YOU RICH (not them). I am not saying to
ignore your obligations. You must work with the banks, credit card
companies and insurance companies to come up with a reasonable solution
for any money that you owe, in a monthly plan that you can actually
commit to for the next two years.
You can do this.
You can look out for yourself, knowing that a healthy, wealthy you
can better afford to be honorable to the debts you owe and to create
a wonderful future for yourself, for your family and for our world.
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, a featured teacher in
the movie, Spiritual Liberation, and CEO of one of the most respected,
independently owned financial news corporations in the U.S. She
has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from TipsTraders.com and has
partnered content with Forbes.com,
Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more. She has appeared
on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC, Time Magazine, More Magazine,
USA Today, NPR and national radio shows. For more information please
visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.
.
|
|
Career
Reflections: 14 Commandments for Getting Ahead.
by Alexa
Brandt.
During my four
years at the national women’s organization Step
Up Women’s Network, I had the opportunity to work with and learn
from some of the brightest women executives in the country. Upon
departing the organization to pursue my MBA, I am eager to share
14 commandments that have helped me get ahead in my career. I hope
these tips will provide you with fuel for your professional advancement.
- Dream
jobs do exist. Understand your gifts and search long and hard
until you find a role that puts them to good use. I speak from
experience and will always be grateful for the phenomenal opportunity
I was granted to play a small role in building Step Up Women’s
Network into one of the most sought-after women’s networks in
the nation.
- Be an
active community member – it pays. Find your cause, organization,
or community group and get involved. Inevitably you will feel
more connected, learn new skills, and build lasting relationships.
Get started at www.idealist.org.
Once you find your organization, make friends with the staff and
members of the board of directors. These individuals hold the
keys to the best volunteer roles and event invitations.
- Have a
great business idea? Secure your web presence by purchasing
the domain name for $10 a year at www.godaddy.com
(I personally own seven). Build a free website at www.yola.com.
- Get connected.
Every Friday go through your email inbox and send LinkedIn and
Facebook requests to each new contact you have communicated with
that week. Learn great insights on developing relationships by
subscribing to expert Keith
Ferazzi’s newsletter.
- A little
graphic design can go a long way. Find a talented graphic
designer who understands your vision and use them for everything
from business cards to party invitations. Make it affordable by
using a graphic design auction site like http://99designs.com/.
- When in
doubt, smile and wear a stylish outfit. A fierce combination
of the two has the ability to open many doors.
- Learn
how to use catchy language that sticks. Read Made
to Stick by Chip and Dan Heath. It changed the
way I wordsmith and as a result more and more people are able
to quickly understand my vision, ideas, and goals.
- Never
underestimate the power of a hand written thank you note. Purchase
very affordable personal stationary with easy to use templates
at vistaprint.com.
Send thank you notes out frequently when deserved (both to individuals
and their bosses!).
- Stay informed.
Find media that speaks to you and subscribe. Some of my favorite
e-newsletters and magazines are Trend
Central, TED,
Ode
Magazine, The
Week, PINK
Magazine, and Fast
Company.
- People,
even the Fortune 500 bigwigs, are very accessible. Challenge
yourself to reach out to at least five people who impress or intrigue
you each year. Request an informational interview or simply 15
minutes of their time by phone. You will be surprised by how many
people invite you into their offices and lives when you express
sincere interest in their work.
- Ask for
what you want and need. Be clear, be bold and be direct. People
want to help other people so let your network know how they can
help you. Three kind and generous women who helped me when I asked
are my business school recommenders - Danielle Carrig, Jane Wurwand
and Lisa Hochberg.
- Icebreaker
games are the fastest way to build camaraderie quickly among strangers.
In my reign as the "Ice Breaker Queen" at Step Up
I came to realize that even those individuals who initially resist
participation are always thankful and appreciative for the camaraderie
that results in the end. Click
here for some icebreaker game ideas.
- Celebrate
and share your successes. My favorite way to recap after an
event in the office is by having a "Compliment Fest."
It’s simple: One by one, each team member is recognized for everything
s/he did well by each of the other team members. It enables everyone
to have a voice and create a positive platform to discuss the
event (even if everything about the event was not positive). Ask
colleagues to send their compliments to you over email so you
have a record of the positive feedback. Use it when it is time
for a review. On an annual basis send out a well crafted email
to your network highlighting professional updates and impressive
career accomplishments.
- Pay tribute
to those who have who have supported you and stepped up on your
behalf. I am both saddened and thankful that my list of supporters
is too long to include in this article. Let’s just say that if
we have collaborated together, I am eternally grateful that our
paths have crossed and hope they stay entwined for many miles
to come.
 |
| Alexa Brandt |
About
Alexa Brandt:
Alexa Brandt flexed her philanthropic muscles as a Senior
Program Manager at Step Up Women’s Network from 2005-2009. Her next
stop is Babson College to pursue an MBA (don’t worry – she already
printed new branded stationary for all of her thank you notes).
Connect with Alexa on Facebook.
|
|
Broken Hearts and Broken
Down Chariots in the Eternal City.
by Natalie
Pace.
An
Interview with the legendary film star, Tony Curtis.
Tony
Curtis was born Bernard Schwartz, but many, like legendary director
Stanley Kubrick, considered him the embodiment of royalty. He became
Antoninus, in Kubrick’s Roman epic Spartacus. He hobnobbed
in the highest social circles. He married beautiful women (five
to be exact) and fathered gifted children (including Jamie Lee Curtis).
So, when I ran
into Mr. Curtis in a hotel in Rome, Italy, and he greeted me with
that mirthful, more rags than royal, New York accent, I felt some
sort of simpatico or calling or curiosity that could not be ignored.
This was not adoration or infatuation. Just the lazy wonderment
that can only happen when you are in Rome, with eyes and heart wide
open at all the monuments and how well they’ve held up. Mr. Curtis,
one of the last remaining Rat Pack rascals, was still holding up.
I was curious to see how well.
When I called
Tony Curtis for this interview, later that afternoon, I hadn’t seen
Spartacus since I was a teenager and could barely remember
what his role in the movie was. Some Like It Hot was the
film he’s most famous for these days – that and being the father
of Jamie Lee Curtis. All of this was before my day, really, and
quite outside my aesthetic interests. So why bother with the interview?
It was just the feeling that running into him there in Rome -- after
running into him a decade earlier in Las Vegas at Caesar’s Palace
-- was important, or at minimum, odd enough to be explored. My interview
request was nothing more than just wandering down a path to see
where it would lead before I hit a stop sign or a cliff. Here’s
how the scene played out.
I was squeezed
into the world’s tiniest elevator, on my third day in Rome, thinking,
"Rome is definitely not a place for someone in a wheelchair."
The elevator door opened and there was a crew of people getting
ready to heave a man from one standard American-sized wheelchair
into one small enough to fit into the elevator. I was startled how
reality matched my previous thought and whispered, "Wow. Isn’t
that synchronistic!" to myself as I walked past the entourage.
Right at that
moment, I hear a voice, saying, "Ciao Bella!" I immediately
recognized the voice – from my past or from a movie, I couldn’t
tell which. I looked into his face and saw that, through the ruins
of age, past the highways of broken vessels, there was a legendary
film star, one of the most desirable men of his day -- Tony Curtis.
And buried in the mirth of his smile and the lilt of his greeting
was still the wild child, albeit in an old man’s body. I sang back
to him, "Buon giorno!" and skipped out the door on my
way to the Vatican, but the meeting itself kept replaying in my
brain all day.
Just a few years
earlier, I’d run into the same man in the same way – at a hotel
elevator – but that time it was in Las Vegas! At Caesar’s Palace
circa 2000, Tony Curtis was a strong, healthy, though aging man
with a beautiful, tall, much younger woman with long blonde hair
on his arm. He looked rich and happy. She looked statuesque and
expensive. Perhaps it was the desire to know whether she had stuck
with him through the journey – the curiosity about the love affair
– that lead me to call the hotel room of Tony Curtis and request
an interview.
I do not know
why the Gods choose to slam our chariots into one another – in Roma,
Italy and in Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas. I don’t know if this
man is a decent person or a good father. People on the street still
can’t get over that he left Vivien Leigh. I can’t even remember
if he is a decent actor.
But I do not
question the Gods. And, in retrospect, the poetry that emerged from
the lips of one of the greatest cinema stars in history was well
worth the bravery it took to call him on the phone and trust what
might unfold.
Now if these
questions sound ridiculous, it is because this interview was impromptu,
unprepared and rushed. I was told, by one of his handlers and then
later by his wife (I didn’t know if she’s the same woman from a
decade ago), that if I wanted to do an interview, it must be done
right then and there, and he only had five minutes. There was no
time to prepare. Not even five minutes to scan his filmography,
which meant I could only name two out of more than 140 films that
he’d starred in.
"Don’t
worry, honey," Tony assured me. "This is the interview
you really want. Everyone already knows my films any way. This will
be something more."
Ok, I said to
myself. Why not trust him? I’ve already made an ass of myself and
know I’ve got five minutes to kill. Thankfully, he doesn’t remember
running into me in either elevator and I’ll probably never see him
again, so I won’t have to face up to being the author of this nonsense!
And the moment
that I let go of all of the self-judgment, that’s when the magic
began.
Natalie:
What’s your favorite movie that you’ve starred in?
Tony
Curtis: I really can’t say. The movies were built around the culture
and what was happening in the world at the time. Each is important
in its own way.
Do you think
movies are key to helping humanity understand their world and perhaps
even transform the times?
They
are simply important to the individual who sees them. I did love
stories. Gangster stories. Guy meets girl. Guy gets the girl.
How do the
Italians feel about your films? Are you popular here in Italy?
I
was very popular in Rome for what I represent to the Roman audience,
which is freedom. The Romans loved the impudence, the joy, the pleasure
and the pain of life. Romans won’t be chastised for these things.
What would
you tell Americans about the magic of Rome, of what it feels like
to stand in 2000 year-old ruins?
I
feel that I represent part of them. The ruins that I see, feel and
sense here, now, in this moment of my time on Earth. The statues
are broken down and seeking renovation. We all are. We are a product
of the time we live in. I, like these ruins, have the strength and
joy of being simply who I am.
With
no regrets? No apologies or unfulfilled dreams?
If
I failed in projecting anything, that is my fame. My fame is what
I’ve contributed with my failures and my successes.
I am like granite, broken, abused and refreshed by what has happened.
My broken heart. My chariot that doesn’t work. I am all of these
things.
Whatever Tony
Curtis did on or off screen, in and out of over 140 films and five
marriages, and whatever I have done on or off the screen of my own
life, I am and we all are, "broken, abused and refreshed by
what has happened."
You can learn
more about the legacy of this famous film star at his website, TonyCurtis.com.
Tony Curtis is considered Hollywood royalty, a true rags to riches
story, and his autographed memoir American
Prince, is available for the royally reduced price
of just $40.
Tony Curtis
has a nonprofit organization devoted to the rescue and care of abandoned
horses that are destined for the slaughter house (and Verona, Italy,
no doubt), called Shiloh
Horse Sanctuary, which he runs with his wife, Jill Curtis,
who is one and the same beautiful, statuesque blonde, who was on
his arm a decade ago in Las Vegas.
From a career
at the facade throne of la-la land, to the overseer of Shiloh Horse
just north of Sin City, Tony Curtis now presides over the very real
and noble task of helping stallions pass to greener pastures. But
wait: that’s not all.
Tony
is now enjoying a successful second career as a fine artist. Since
at least the early 1960s, Curtis has had a second career as a painter,
assemblage creator, and sketcher. His work can command more than
$50,000 a canvas now and it is on this he now focuses rather than
movies. "I still make movies but I'm not that interested any more.
I paint all the time." Tony's paintings are featured in galleries
all around the world, including in Las Vegas, Carmel, Maui, Whistler,
London, Paris, and New York. In 2007 his painting The Red Table
went on display at the Metropolitan Museum in Manhattan.
If you want
something truly special from Tony Curtis, you can buy a piece of
his artwork. It’s unfortunate that more movie maniacs don’t realize
this. But, you, dear online reader, must pass this on. That yes,
a signed, numbered, personally painted and autographed litho of
Americana is available from the American Prince himself, and at
prices that should make the recession-weary wallet sing.
Tony has painted
and autographed some of the hottest posters from his films, including
"Hot" with Marilyn Monroe, Houdini and more. Be
sure to take the time to view the Fine Art & Giclees, Pens,
Posters & Inks and Photo Giclees on his website.
|
|
 |
| L’Arena
in Verona, Italy. |
Placido
Celebrates 2000 in Verona on July 24, 2009.
by
Natalie Pace.
Placido
Domingo put Los Angeles Opera on the world stage when he became
General Director in 2000. His heart and his start, however, lie
in the Ancient Roman stones of the Arena
in Verona, Italy. There he made his Italian opera debut, which launched
his career as the most celebrated tenor of our day.
On
July 24, 2009, Placido Domingo returned to Verona to celebrate the
40th anniversary of his first time onstage in Italy,
which occurred at the ancient Verona amphitheatre. On that sultry
summer evening, Domingo’s masterful renditions of Verdi’s Otello,
Alfano’s Cyrano de Bergerac and Bizet’s Carmen circled
across the 25,000 seats of the Arena of the open-air arena and soared
over the cobble-stone streets where Romeo and Juliet first fatefully
crossed paths more than six hundred years ago.
The
history of the Arena is almost as magnificent as the stars of Opera,
like Domingo, who have made their Italian debut on its stage. (Maria
Callas and Renee Fleming are among the prestigious list of opera
stars to sing in L’Arena). 2000 years ago, within the third decade
of the first century, L’Arena di Verona, was built by the Romans.
It is the 3rd largest stadium in Italy, after the Coliseum
(in Rome) and the amphitheatre (in Capua). And, of course, for literature
lovers, Verona is the city of star-crossed love of Romeo
Montague and Juliet Capulet, whose home is now a museum there.
On
the first night of Placido Domingo’s Italian debut in the summer
of 1969, in Turandot, his thoughts, as he gazed up at the
moon were that just a few months before, a man had landed there
for the first time. Today, just 40 years later, rovers have explored
Mars and the Hubble telescope has snapped photos of the rings of
Saturn and the birth of stars. It is this kind of stunning, seamless
coexistence of time and space that is possible only in an arena
of this nature – outdoor, immense, open-air and Roman – the only
one of its kind in use in the world today.
When
25,000 people filled the seats to celebrate with Domingo under the
stars of a July 24, 2009 Verona night, they co-created another unforgettable
experience -- the coming together of masterful artistry, art aficionados,
architecture and a few blessed seat cushions. This celebration was
truly worthy of the Gods, with a stage so expansive that the artists
can get lost from the music, if they are not careful. According
to Placido Domingo, in an interview with Francesca Zardini, "When
the space is so big, everything is more difficult… You absolutely
must anticipate, if not, you risk having the sound arrive with a
slight delay."
For
those who could not afford the price of admission, the arias, as
well as the roar of the crowds, resounded throughout the streets
of Verona. This was the trip of a lifetime and one that the Domingo-phile
should not have missed! If you wish to hop a jet immediately, you
can still experience Placido Domingo conducting George Bizet’s Carmen,
with direction and stage design by Franco Zeffirelli at the Arena.
Aida, Turandot, Il Barbiere di Siviglia and Tosca
are also staged at the Arena this summer. Go to Arena.IT
for the summer schedule.
Los
Angeles shares our beloved maestro and treasure Placido Domingo
with Verona (and Washington D.C.). Beyond the challenges of this
moment, the "economic crisis" and unemployment, we can
experience something with greater depth and meaning. We can step
into and support a tradition that spans two millennia in the making
– a once in a lifetime experience that could make all of those inane
trips to the water cooler worth it. Opera in a 2000-year old coliseum.
Whatever
our fiscal problems are, which appear to strangle our potential,
much less our ability to enjoy life, these enduring monuments,
our awe of the glory and achievement of our ancestors and of exquisite
art and architecture, demand a certain reverence and acknowledgement
and support. And as we step up to experience something deep, memorable
and lasting and to drink in the ages under the stars -- 40 years
for Placido Domingo, 96 years of opera at L’Arena in Verona, 2000
years for the Arena itself -- we create a more incredible life for
ourselves, and for the world – now and forever, far beyond what
is buried beneath our daily routines and small lives.
One
important night in Verona -- July 24, 2009 – was perhaps one of
the most golden moments in the history of humanity. One artist,
whose lungs filled a stadium that spans centuries, radiated so brightly
that even the Gods in the heavens were twinkling the stars for an
encore. At the age of 68, Placido Domingo has won the Presidential
Medal of Freedom, numerous honorary doctorates and much more. He
still enjoys excellent health and an amazing voice, but don’t wait
for the 50th anniversary! Be sure to see him whenever
and wherever you possibly can.
Tickets
for the opera at L’Arena can be purchased online at the Arena website,
at Arena.IT, or you can
go to Verona and buy them directly at the box office. Be adventureous.
It’s worth it. With a stadium that seats 25,000, don’t worry, even
if you risk it and buy the ticket there, you’ll most likely get
in!
About
Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of Put Your Money Where Your
Heart Is, a featured teacher in the movie, Spiritual Liberation,
and CEO of one of the most respected, independently owned financial
news corporations in the U.S. She has been ranked as a #1 stock
picker from TipsTraders.com and has partnered content with
Forbes.com, Sohu.com, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance and more.
She has appeared on Fox News, Good Morning America, CNBC,
Time Magazine, More Magazine, USA Today, NPR and national radio
shows. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com/.
|
|
10
Tips for Traveling to Italy.
by Natalie
Pace
You must do
this now! The country is amazing! It is my personal viewpoint that
once every decade, at least, you should go on an amazing adventure
that lasts for at least 21 days. This is good for the soul because
it vaults you out of your status quo and puts you in the midst of
other possibilities. No matter what happens when you return, you
are a changed person, capable of dreaming much larger, living much
more deeply and happier to boot!
Italy definitely
qualifies as a place to visit on one of those once-in-a-lifetime
vacations. No doubt, that is why Katie Holmes and Tom Cruise chose
to marry in Italy (and stay at the Hassler
Hotel, while in Rome). George Clooney and Brad Pitt opted
for the elegance of Hotel
Di Russie, in the Piazza del Popolo, while filming Ocean’s
Twelve.
 |
| St.
Peter's Basilica and St. Peter's Square, Vatican City
(at night) |
 |
| View
of the Piazza del Popolo from the Popolo suite at Hotel
di Russie |
 |
| View
of the pool and Vatican City from the Rome Cavalieri (a
Waldorf-Astoria hotel). |
 |
|
The
Spanish Steps, Rome, Itay.
The Hassler Hotel is at the top of the Spanish Steps!
|
|
- What
to do First: Allow for at least 4 days in Rome first
before any other city in the country. Don’t just book a
"tour." Rome is a walking city and getting to
the monuments is VERY easy to do on your own. If you do
go with your own flow, then you can spend time on the things
that most interest you, on your own clock, instead of kowtowing
to the clock of the masses and the tour buses.
- Capri!
Don’t forget the island that inspired an entire fashion
trend when you are planning the cities you’ll visit! This
is located off the coast of Napoli. You can book your hotel
in advance and then catch the ferry boat from Napoli to
get there.
- Taxis:
If you must take a cab, negotiate the amount with the driver
BEFORE you get in the car, especially if you are catching
a cab at the airport. If the cab does not have a meter,
don’t get in the car. If the meter is running before you
get in, refuse to get in and wait for the next cab. Don’t
argue because if the cab driver is dishonest s/he will just
lie and tell you some lame excuse why it costs more. (It’s
in the evening. You’re near a gas station. Blah Blah Blah.)
Just take the next cab and avoid the confrontation.
- Hotels:
Whatever star of hotel you are booking, in general, expect
it to be one star lower. 5-star hotels like the Hassler,
Excalibur, Hotel di Russie, Rome Cavalieri, etc., are outstanding
5-star hotels, worthy of the rating, and high priced and
are the exception to the rule. I have stayed in other 5-star
hotels (in great neighborhoods) in Rome that were good,
but had much smaller rooms and inferior facilities to what
you’d expect from that level of ranking. 4-stars equal 3.
3 equal 2. 2 are like a hostel. In general, rooms are much
smaller. Beds feel like cement. Showers are tiny and your
knees may hit the wall when you sit down. The good news
about Italy, however, is that in every 4-star and above
hotel, you get a bidet!
- Expedia,
Priceline and other discount prices: In the summer
of 2009, when I went to Italy, I found Expedia to be the
best value. Often times, the Expedia price was 30% lower
than the price quoted by the hotel! I wouldn’t use Priceline’s
Name Your Own Price (which I love using in the U.S.) because
the variance on the type of hotel you might end up in is
too great. It’s quite important to read the Traveler’s Opinions
of the hotels when picking which one to try out. Without
exception, I found the opinions to be right on the money,
clearly outlining the pros and cons of the location, staff,
rooms, breakfast and more. The best tip I can give you is
that you want to stay in the heart of the city (near one
of the landmarks). This will save you tons on cabs and blisters
and make it easier to find great places to eat – some bargain
and some splurge, when you desire. Cabs can be VERY expensive,
so location is really key.
- Water:
You can drink the water in the hotel rooms and in the public
fountains. (You’ll see a lot of locals refreshing themselves
in the public fountains with the cool, clean water.) No
Montezuma’s Revenge! You can eat the fruit and salad, and
other things that are uncooked and washed, as well, without
a problem.
- Packing:
Take old underwear and socks and throw them away when they
get dirty! That way you create space in your luggage for
new clothes, while not having to lug around dirty laundry.
In fact, I’d take the smallest amount of clothes possible,
along with one pair of walking shoes and a pair of dress
up shoes, with the goal of filling up the suitcase with
new clothes for the year. Some of the best shopping in the
world is in Italy. When you think of the top designers,
most are Italian! Great shoes. Great clothes. Shopping delights!
- Trains:
The trains are efficient, relatively inexpensive and run
on time. Be sure to buy your tickets from the window, however,
as there are rules to traveling that most foreign tourists
are not savvy to. You run the risk of fines on the train
if you haven’t stamped things properly after buying them
in the self-service area. There are also more pick pockets
and beggars waiting to prey on tourists near the self-service
ticketing area.
- Single
Women: Be careful. The Latin Lovers tend to be more
aggressive than most American women are accustomed to. Avoid
any man who says, "I could teach you a little Italian,"
with a gloating grin on his face. Don’t talk to to drunk
guys or accept drinks (or any gift) from men you are not
interested in. Just say, "Scusi. Non vorrei parlare
adesso." (Sorry. I don’t wish to talk right now.) If
you are hot, get very good at this phrase, travel in a pack
with friends and walk away fast when approached. I was dressed
like a nun and am older than I care to admit, and even I
had problems. Imagine what you will encounter!
- Cars:
Rome and Verona are walking cities. It’s much easier to
travel between your major destinations by train, walk everywhere
and take cabs only when absolutely necessary than it is
to rent a car. Parking looks to be quite difficult in all
of the Italian cities I’ve been in, and I wouldn’t want
to try and drive the way the locals drive!
|
|
|
Tips
for Traveling to Roma.
by Natalie
Pace.
The Eternal
City is one of the wonders of our great world, and the Italian people
are some of the finest architects, chefs, clothes designers and
reportedly even lovers. So what are you waiting for!
- Airport
Transportation: Arrange for your transportation
to your hotel in advance. Some hotels offer a shuttle. Others
have their own limo service. If you’re young and lightweight
and adventuresome, you can take the train into the city
and then walk to your destination. Avoid the taxi drivers
that circle the airport as some tend to be the dishonest
and predatory. Unfortunately, this is the area of complaint
heard most often from travelers to Italy – the bandito cab
drivers. It’s not too difficult to take the train into the
city, and then catch the Metro or a cab when you closer
to town (saves you about 40 Euro). If you have a lot of
bags (and please don’t; there is superior shopping in Italy!),
the limo service from the hotel is probably the best option.
Some hotels provide shuttle service. Most don’t.
- Must
Sees and Dos: Keep this list handy and be sure that
you do them all! 1) a church service at the Pantheon – the
oldest building still in use in the world; 2) gelato at
Giolitti; 3) the Grotto, the Cupola, St. Peter’s Basilica
and the Sistine Chapel (located at the Vatican Museum).
Hint: This realistically means TWO DAYS in Vatican City
to do it all; 4) Trevi Fountain; 5) Piazza del Popolo; 6)
Caffé Grecco and the John Keats Museum (located near
the Spanish Steps); 7) a glass of wine with a friend on
the Spanish Steps; 8) shoe shopping at Giuseppe Zanetti;
9) cocktails at the Emporer’s Terrace, located at the Intercontinental
Hotel de la Ville, above the Spanish Steps; 10) piano bar
at the Hassler Hotel; 11) Secret Garden at the Hotel di
Russie; 12) Fichi al Prosecco y Basilico at Rampa Ristorante
(beneath the Spanish Steps) (this is fresh figs, without
skin, swimming in semi-sweet wine and slightly scented with
basil); 13) Rome Cavalieri for sunset (beware of the royally
priced food and drink, which accompany the outstanding view
of the entire city!); 14) one full day for a leisurely stroll
through the Colosseum, Palantine, Via Sacra and the Forum
and a great meal close by.
- The
Pantheon: Go to Mass at the Pantheon! This is the
oldest structure that is still in use. CLOTHING ALERT! No
short shorts and no sleeveless shirts, if you want to attend
mass. It is worth an hour of your time to attend a service
in this sacred place.
- Vatican:
Also, if you are in Rome on a Wednesday, find out if the
Pope is speaking in St. Peter’s Plaza. CLOTHING ALERT! No
short shorts and no sleeveless shirts are allowed inside
the Vatican or the Vatican Museum. Both men and women must
be dressed appropriately or you will be denied entry. It’s
a pain to get to the Vatican and then to walk all the way
around the walls to the Vatican Museum. You don’t want to
show up sweaty and out of breath and then be turned away!
- Sistine
Chapel and Vatican Museum. It takes about three
hours to walk through the museum to the Sistine Chapel,
and unless you are handicapped or royalty, there is no way
to bypass the many chapels you pass through before you finally
arrive at the Sistine Chapel. (If you have someone handicapped
with you, be sure to alert the museum staff and get a lift
directly to the Sistine Chapel.) Each of the countless chapels
before the most holy one, is marvelous in its own rite and
you’ll want to allow enough time to enjoy them. Allow at
least four hours to do the Museum right. It’s best to go
right when it opens to avoid the crowds. The Sistine Chapel
is a sacred place. No talking is allowed, and if you were
ever to say a prayer, this would be the place to do it.
I’d allow 30 minutes for prayer/meditation/contemplation
and art gazing while inside. There is a seating area along
the walls of the Chapel. Remember: No short shorts and no
sleeveless shirts are allowed inside the Sistine Chapel
(or the Vatican Museum).
- Giolitti
for Gelato! Located between Palazzo Montecitorio
and the Pantheon you’ll find Rome’s most famous gelato bar.
Inside, you can pre-pay for gelato, cappuccino, other delicacies
and even snacks. If you want sit down service outside, you
have to pay double the price, but that could be worth it
on a hot Roman day! Otherwise, do what the locals do and
eat your cup or cone outside while standing up. Be careful,
Roman law says that people are not supposed to eat near
monuments, so don’t plan on taking your cone into the Pantheon
or near any other monument.
- Spanish
Steps: Grab a bottle of wine and a tramezzino (sandwich)
at a local "bar" in the evening and sit on the
Spanish Steps! You’ll hear troubadours and see the locals
enjoying one another’s company.
- Trevi
Fountain: Ahhh Awe! Be sure to make a wish and throw
a coin over your shoulder into the fountain. And the Trevi
Fountain Café is a delightful place for a doppio
macchiato, spraymute aranchia (fresh orange juice) and chocolate
croissant. If you are just in the mood for a pick me up,
take it at the bar and be amazed at the low cost. As with
all Italian cafes, you pay more to eat at the table. The
monument at the fountain is spectacular and the horses on
either side represent the calm and wild/unrestrained nature
of the sea.
- Shopping!
Rome should be the annual shopping spree. Buy new clothes
in the best designer mecca in the world. Armani, Valentino,
Giuseppe Zanetti (the most beautiful shoes in the world)
Ferragamo and more! Many of the shops are located at the
bottom of the Spanish Steps, near Piazza di Popolo, on Via
Condotti.
- Restaurants:
Check out Otella alla Concordia, located at Via della Croce,
81. This trattoria specializes in fresh fish and is delectable,
at reasonable prices. Local gourmands hang here. Savvy travelers
are sent here. (I ran into a Treasury Department official
during the G8 Summit at this restaurant.) For something
special closer to the Vatican, check out a family ristorante,
I Vespri Siciliani. This is another place that specializes
in fish. The pesto gnocchi di la casa is to die for (with
mussels and clams)! The view at Rome Cavalieri, at the top
of the hill above the Vatican, is stunning. The restaurants
there are staggeringly expensive, and even though one is
Michelin rated, honestly, it’s hard to imagine that it tastes
better than the family restaurant just down the hill (I
Vespri Siciliani). The cheapest thing on the menu at Rome
Cavalieri is American coffee for 8 euros. Burgers cost $22
euro. But the view is the best in Roma (and then you can
head down the hill for an amazing meal at I Vespri Siciliani).
Ristorante Alla Rampa near the Spanish Steps is reasonably
priced with quite good food as well. This is where you’ll
find the amazing Italian dessert – fresh figs in wine! (Fichi
al Prosecco y Basilico).
- Piazza
di Popolo: You must read David
St. John’s poetry before visiting the Piazza di
Popolo. Then, when you are dining at Rosati, you’ll have
a visceral understanding of the romance of Rome! His best
poems, in my view, are "Radio Eros" and "Last
Night with Rafaela." Go on Amazon.com to buy some books
to take with you!
- Montecitorio:
You can tour the Camera dei deputati, which is like the
U.S. House of Representatives on certain days. My tour was
in Italian and so I didn’t understand half of it, but the
inside of the Palace is quite amazing nonetheless. Everything
in Italy is based in the Arts. Political leaders get their
busts in marble. Beautiful sculptures stare out along the
halls. Draperies and paintings grace the walls. Ornate gilding
and fine carpentry garnish the woodwork. The Italians are
amazing architects, artists, chefs, carpenters, sculptors
and more. Fine crafting and exquisite details with an emphasis
on staying power (no Latin lover pun intended) underlie
every monument, cuisine and even its national religion!
|
 |
| Rome's
Colosseum at night. |
 |
| Trevi
Fountain |
 |
| Pantheon
|
 |
| Pope
John XXIII (mummified) at rest in St. Peter's Basilica
|
 |
| View
of St. Peter's Basilica from the Cupola |
 |
| View
of St. Peter's Square from atop the Cupola |
|
|
|
Tips for Traveling to Verona.
by Natalie
Pace.
In my view,
Verona is easily as important as Rome, and far more key than Venice
or one of the other popular destinations in Italy. Three days in
Verona should do it, but you could easily fall in love with the
city, where the Roman traditions have not been completely washed
clean from the basilicas. You’ll likely see a sarcophagus in the
churches, paintings, basilicas and piazzas devoted to St. Mary Maddalena.
You can view Roman cash hordes from the time of the Goth invasions,
and much more! Verona is a bit hard to get to, in that you have
to connect in Bologna or Florence, but well worth the trouble! Make
sure that your concierge prints out the train schedule so that you
are assured that you have time to make your train connection.
1. Lodging:
Gabbia
D’Oro is the nicest hotel in town, and is located strategically
in the historic center of the city. 12 Apostles Restaurant, one
of the most memorable dining experiences in the world, is right
around the corner, as are quite a large number of eating options.
Juliet’s home is right down the block, as are L’Arena and the town
square. So most of everything you’ll want to see and do in Verona
is walking distance from the Gabbia D’Oro.
I found B4’s
Leon d’Oro to be a nice 4-star hotel (based upon Italian,
not American standards) with excellent service. This hotel is near
the train station, about a 20-minute walk, or 7-9 cab Euro ride,
from the center of Verona. The hotel offers a shuttle service to
the Opera. Italian hotels tend to be less comfortable than American
hotels: Beds are hard. Rooms are small. Bidet is a delightful staple.
 |
| L'Arena
in Verona. 2000 year old colosseum seats 25,000. Stages opera
every summer! |
2. Celebrate
2000 Years! Celebrate 96 years of Opera at the world’s 3rd
largest Roman arena, L’Arena
di Verona. This outdoor amphitheater is over 2000 years
old. You cannot imagine the imprint that watching opera under the
stars in a 2000-year-old arena with 25,000 people makes upon your
life. It’s such a divine moment, you think if you reach out your
hand, you’ll touch an angel.
 |
| Statue
of Juliet (without her Romeo) |
3. 12
Apostles Restaurant: Have dinner at Dodici
Apostoli in Verona – one of the finest restaurants and cuisine
in the world. Ask for a tour of the catacombs that date back to
the Roman Empire (2000+ years ago), a history of the restaurant
(and how it got its name) and view the vintage wines honoring VIP
celebrities and guests who have visited the restaurant. This restaurant
has been in the same family for over 300 years and has an impressive
wine collection. The food is fresh and divine. This is the meal
of a lifetime, so if you have a special reason you are going to
Rome, this may be the place to celebrate your anniversary, birthday,
graduation, etc.
4. Juliet
Capulet: Tour Juliet’s home in Verona. As the locals are
happy to share with you, the Capulets and Montagues are families
of Verona, who have been rivals since the 13th century,
when Romeo and Juliet lived, loved and shared their tragic lives
(and deaths). Shakespeare made the story famous, but it was a story
being told for over 100 years (and lived countless years before
that) before it was immortalized with the bard’s lyrics.
5. Osteria
Le Vecete. The best tiramisu ever! The food at this quaint
little café is award-winning. Few tourists know about it,
but the locals love it! All of the desserts are made in-house and
are not to be missed. The strawberry torta was so orgasmic that
the proprietor had to beg me to try the tiramisu, which was so light
and delicious I wanted to lick the plate (but didn’t). The buffalo
cheese was the lightest/creamiest/yummiest I’ve ever tasted, and
accompanied by plump, fresh tomatoes, arugula and prosciutto makes
a light meal, with plenty of room for dessert.
 |
| Castle
San Pietro |
6. Castel
San Pietro. Castel San Pietro is the castle that has dominated
the city of Verona, high above the river, since before the Roman
Empire. It is now an Austrian edifice, that is run down, in disarray
and largely unused. However, this mountain stronghold has been a
strategic lookout since the Iron Age and is where the city of Verona
was birthed! Archaeological Iron Age artifacts predate the Roman
days. During Roman times, the sacred fort area was a temple. The
Roman Temple was then converted to a Church for St. Peter, with
a castrum (ick), sometime before the 8th century. In
1801, the French destroyed the castle, including the church and
fortress. The Austrians came between 1852 and 1858. Today, the Veronese
officials are deciding the fate of what is likely to become a museum,
according to local reports. The view of Verona from this peak is
well worth the climb up many, many stairs!
7. Local
Cuisine: Cavallo – horse meat – is a popular dish in Verona.
If you see a horse insignia or the words Cavallo or Cavallito in
the name of a dish or prominently displayed at the restaurant be
forewarned. This is not a Ferrari symbol, indicating that this is
the highest qualify of all of the eateries! Many local cafés
and restaurants have cavallo on the menu. There are usually plenty
of other choices, and you can always ask for them to substitute
horse meat for another protein source.
8. The
Veronese Temper: In Romeo and Juliet, Shakespeare
emphasizes the hot temper of Mercutio – the loud-mouthed, aggressive
Veronese who was always quick to draw his sword and prompted the
battles between Romeo and Tivolt. The battle scenes take place in
the sultry, mind-melting heat of summer. And I believe every word
of the story after visiting Verona in July! I asked for a local
bartender to recount the change for me (when I thought he’d short-changed
me) and he sneered as if he’d rather behead me! The shuttle driver
spent the entire trip (there AND back) blasting his horn at everyone
and squeezing cabs off the road, which culminated in him almost
clocking a hotel guest who had parked (temporarily) in his spot.
Just be aware of this.
9. Beware
of Predators: It’s tough to be both a smiling, happy, stress-free
traveler and a savvy, conscious person in charge of your wallet
at the same time. It seems almost sacrilegious to tell you how important
it is to visit Italy – particularly Rome and Verona – and then warn
you of liars, bandits and pick pockets. But, this is a relatively
poor part of Italy, with a large migratory population of gypsy types,
who get employed for some of the least desirable and lower pay positions.
You must be on your guard, but at the same time, if you question
someone, they are liable to curse and yell at you. And if you are
being ripped off, you’re going to be lied to by the thief, and possibly
even by his/her accomplice, who might also be employed by the hotel/restaurant/etc.
So, it’s a no-win situation in a lot of cases. As an example: at
the Opera, the cushion boy tried to con more dough from me by saying
that my cushion voucher expired yesterday. (His superior came along
and corrected the matter, but didn’t even chastise the extortionist.)
A cab driver pulled up with 7 Euro already tolled on the meter,
and lied, saying, it was an evening surcharge. When you believe
that your price is being gouged, it’s best to just move on and hope
that the next taxi driver or cushion boy is honest. (And for every
liar/bandit/pick pocket, there are ninety-five honest people truly!
|
|
Top 10 Things You Must
Do In Your Lifetime (While in Italy).
by Natalie
Pace
 |
| "The Thinker" by Rodin (in the Vatican museum). |
Okay, okay.
You have all of the travel tips. So, now, here are just a few of
my favorite things. I spent almost a month in Italy with the sole
mandate to experience the life, learn a little bit of the language,
do things that I wouldn’t normally do, stay clean and happy and
eat too much. So, here are the experiences over that month that
rank the highest on my list of lifetime experiences.
Funny: Oftentimes,
someone at the next table would see me enjoying my adventures so
much that I’d hear them say, "I’ll have what she’s having!"
Yes, these are truly orgasmic, and what’s even better is that now
you have the list, you’ll be sure to make your Italian trip even
more memorable.
1. Fichi
al prosecco e basilico at Ristorante Alla Rampa in Roma (near
the Spanish Steps). This is a fresh dessert, only available in summer
time. What a perfect, chill-out compliment to top off a hot, Roman
night! The figs are nude and swimming in the cold, semi-sweet wine,
with only a hint of the basil. Melt in your mouth delicious with
a little buzz to drink in.
2. Listen
to Mario Torosantucci play piano at the Hassler Hotel. Signoro
Torosantucci is actually a reasonably well-known Italian film composer,
as have been a lot of Hassler pianists! Ask him to perform your
favorite song. Chances are he knows it – if it has Rome or Italy
in the title, or was sung or composed by an Italian.
3. Grappa
at Hotel di Russie at midnight for the awesome snacks they serve
you and a view of the Secret Garden at night. I was told that grappa
is a good late night drink because it helps the digestion. It definitely
worked! This is an "acquired" taste that is very high
in alcohol content. The Hotel di Russie snacks and scenery is fit
for a King and Queen, and has hosted quite a few over the decades.
4. Meditate
for one hour at the Sistine Chapel. Chill out. You can do this.
No, you can’t do this as part of a freaking tour group. So, get
up, lazy ass, and go early. Buy your own damn ticket. Take four
hours to walk through the 9000 chapels that precede the final destination.
Actually check out the artwork in those rooms, in detail. And then,
once you get to the Sistine Chapel. Find a seat. Chill out. Calm
down. Ignore all the sweaty, stinky, noisy people around you and
meditate! For one hour!
5. Climb
the Cupola at St. Peter’s Basilica. This climb up is at least
322 steps of stinky, sweaty, claustrophobic, heart-attack, head-banging
(on the sides of the sloping staircase) second-guessing. (Why am
I doing this again?) But once you actually make it to the top, and
squeeze past the other red-faced adventurers, you’ll find the best
views in Rome! You’ll need a glass of wine, three bottles of water
and some excellent pasta carbonara afterward and will feel that
you have earned every calorie!
6. Glass
of wine at the Emporer’s Terrace at the Intercontinental Hotel
de la Ville at the top of the Spanish Steps. This hotel is not as
swanky as others with 5-star status, and it’s rooms, elevators and
amenities are definitely inferior to the Hassler, Hotel di Russie,
Excalibur, Rome Cavalieri, etc. But the Emporer’s Terrace Bar, on
the 6th floor of the de la Ville Hotel, is one of more
spectacular views in the city – one that the other hotels brag about.
I was sent to the de la Ville by one of the staff at the Hotel di
Russie!
 |
| St. Peter's
Basilica and St. Peter's Square, Vatican City (at night) |
7. Vatican
City at night. Check out these photos! The Vatican City at night
is almost empty and magical. Do this! If possible, put on your sneakers
and walk there and back. Take your time while you’re there to enjoy
this sacred space all by yourself! It’s an unbelievable view/experience/walk,
and one that few travelers to Rome take advantage of.
8. Go to
Verona. I know I’ve already given you a lot of tips on Verona,
but there just aren’t enough to give! Verona is off the beaten path.
There are no direct routes by train there. The cafes serve horse
meat. It’s renowned for its people having a hot temper (read Romeo
and Juliet if you haven’t already). And yet, here is where you
will find the shift from paganism to Christianity in its purest
form. The temples still have sarcophaguses. Mary Magdalena carries
a palm frond (the sign of a martyr) and is always crowned with a
halo (the sign of a saint). There were hordes of coins found when
the Emperors were trying to fend off foreign attacks from the Huns.
There are moments captured in time in Verona, where history changed
hands and the victors DID NOT erase the past. (You won’t find many
paintings of Saint Mary Magdalena in the Vatican Museum and NONE
in St. Peter’s Basilica.) For any history or literature buff, anyone
who cares about the divine feminine and women’s studies, anyone
who studies war and the Roman Empire, Verona is one of the most
magical, raw and historically important places on the planet.
9. And did
I mention what an extraordinary meal you’ll have at Dodici Apostoli
(12 Apostles), where you can tour the Roman catacombs (over 2000
years old), while hearing of the family history of owning the restaurant
(over 300 years), while checking out the signature wine bottles
for the distinguished guests (from Maria Callas to Henry Winkler).
Of course, with a name like 12 Apostles, the traveler might assume
that the restaurant, which dates back to Roman times, might have
hosted Christian icons. Whether you are a Catholic, a pagan or a
jokester, you’ll appreciate the true origin of the name!
|
|
NASDAQ Is Up 21% On
the Year!
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
July 29,
2009
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Wednesday, 1.3.2007
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Wednesday, 7.29.09
|
Gains 2-yr,
1-yr & 6 mo.
|
|
Dow: 12,474.52
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 9,034.69
|
Dow: 9,070.72
|
-27% & -30%
& flat
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,423.16
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 1,632.21
|
Nasdaq: 1,967.76
|
-19% & -25%
& +21%
|
|
S&P: 1,416.60
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 931.80
|
S&P: 975.15
|
-31% & -33%
& +5%
|
 |
| Photo by:
Stacie Isabella Turk. Ribbonhead.com. (c) 2008. |
Hot
News on Cool Stocks Highlights!
Look
at the gains of NASDAQ! 21% on the year (compared to a flat Dow
Jones Industrial Average)
80% of
the positions listed below (in 2008 & 2009) are in the money.
Woo hoo!
464%
gains on U.S. Gold
TipsTraders
ranked me #11, above over 830 A-list pundits, in 2008.
Wall Street
Lows on March 9, 2009:
Dow
Jones Industrial Average: 6547
NASDAQ
Composite Index: 1269
S&P
500 Index: 677
Market
Update:
President Obama
is declaring that the end of the recession may be near, but from
my travels in the U.S. and abroad, if the recession is ending, it’s
something that only the geniuses on Wall Street (the ones that created
the financial meltdown and helped billions in unrealized losses
disappear) understand.
In Florida,
I discovered that some banks (and Wells Fargo was mentioned specifically)
have homeowners who have stopped making payments and have vacated
their homes for months on end, but the bank has not yet completed
the official foreclosure process. This keeps the condo association
in limbo and on the line for homeowner’s dues, which in turn hurts
the cities, when the association can’t pay for water, garbage services,
etc. The homeowner’s associations have begun filing liens against
the banks in order to force them to foreclose and get tens of thousands
of dollars of unpaid homeowners dues caught up.
In California,
Florida and in Nevada, I personally know homeowners who had managed
to squeeze by for the last year, but, after sucking their assets
dry, were now ready to stop paying the loan payments on some of
their real estate, come what may to the property. Perhaps I’m only
visiting the distressed states, but in California, Florida, Nevada,
New York and Arizona, everyone knows someone who is out of work,
who had been gainfully employed for most of their lives. (We all
know a few people who are unemployable; I’m talking about people
who are assets to employers and love their job.) And everyone knows
someone in these states who is in trouble with their credit cards,
with their business, with their salary cuts and/or mortgage.
Even with the
summer market rally, so many investors have still lost one-third
or more of their nest egg over the past two years. In fact, when
I think about it, everyone I know feels panicked about their finances
and their near-term prospects, and all have trimmed back to unsustainable
cuts in their lifestyle. By unsustainable, I mean some are homeless
and living with friends. Others are jobless and barely hanging on.
Others are giving back their homes. Everyone is downsizing. Some
have even turned to shady industries or are susceptible to easy
money scams, like the Earn Money From Home scams that FINRA warns
about in this ezine.
The only area
where I know people who feel rich and are excited about their business
prospects is Silicon Valley! This might explain why NASDAQ is doing
so much better than the legacy corporations that are concentrated
in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Internet is here to stay
and e-commerce is ingrained in the world’s banking system. The younger
corporations that are concentrated on the Pacific Rim of the U.S.
and traded on NASDAQ for the most part are the most profitable,
debt-free and exciting in our nation.
The advance
GDP growth report, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on
the 31st of July, says that the economy only contracted by 1%. This
would be fantastic news, if you really believed the numbers. I find
it hard to believe that the banks are as healthy as they are saying,
given the continued levels of foreclosures and the newer distress
of the commercial property owners. We’ve seen this kind of mess
in the past -- specifically with telecommunications, and the implosions
of Global Crossing and World Com. The telecom companies were reporting
profits, by not realizing losses and by carrying “revenue” that
they had no hope of collecting. In this way, they looked healthy
on paper, when they were in fact dangling on the precipice of disaster.
The entire economy is being fueled by printing more paper money,
by the government trying to “stimulate” business and consumers into
buying again. Billions of dollars of losses have magically disappeared,
without all of the losses being “realized.” This feels like a story
(not reality) that we’re experiencing, and I encourage you to trust
what you see personally and feel, more than what you hear and read.
Remember that the 4th quarter 2007 GDP report that sunk the economy
(the first time) was 0.6% in January 2008. At the time, a lot of
people didn’t take notice because it wasn’t that bad and it wasn’t
negative. I alerted people that 0.6% smelled like an accounting
trick to me and called it a recession from the moment the report
was released. Economists, in October of 2008, finally confirmed
that the recession began in that quarter.
We do know,
from the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in
June that the Chairman Ben Bernanke and his team of economists "judged
that market conditions remained fragile." Still, the FOMC staff
revised upward its outlook for economic activity during the remainder
of 2009 and for 2010. According to the minutes, "Participants
generally agreed that the information received since the April meeting
indicated that the economic contraction was slowing and that the
decline in activity could cease before long."
Things could
start looking better simply because the dramatic declines were already
over a year old, and less dramatic falloffs look better by comparison.
This is similar to a devastating earthquake, with aftershocks of
lesser, but still damaging magnitude. It’s more prudent to start
rebuilding once the ground stops shaking, and then, it would be
best to start with earthquake-proof edifices.
That is not
the case of what is happening, however. The same corporations that
would be out of business are still in business and run, for the
most part, by the same people who were at the reins on the road
to ruin. Instead of figuring out how to promote health and productivity,
the national agenda has switched to handouts, bailouts and socialization.
Instead of honoring time-proven bankruptcy courts, the government
is making unilateral decisions that have more to do with political
contributions than legal rights.
Banks, insurance
companies and auto manufacturers have been nationalized without
any real explanation as to what happens to the hundreds of billions
of debt owed to bondholders, who happen to be regular folk (not
Aristocrats), like firemen and teachers. Politicians are threatening
to tax business people and community leaders at 60%. And a good
deal of this scenario is completely toxic to sustainable economic
gardens that flourish under the green thumb of freedom, free markets
and the weeding out process that naturally occurs when you allow
bad seeds to falter and bad business to fail.
While in Italy,
I managed to run into a few department officials from foreign countries.
One, off the record, told me that he and his team were fearful that
the United States was entering a period of "Japan-like"
stagnation. Interesting, because that was the centerpiece
of one of my first interviews with Dr. Gary Becker, back in 2006.
(See Vol. 3, issue 3 of the archived ezines for the article, "Are
GM, Delphi and Delta the Beginning of Japan-like Stagnation for
the U.S.?") There is a case to be made that we’re actually
ten years deep into our own period of stagnation. Yes, there have
been booms and busts, but they were fueled by free, easy money,
not fiscal health, and the net-sum gain is that the markets were
actually lower at the end of 2008 than they were in 1998.
Regardless
of the mind-numbing financial rhetoric, the political jockeying
and conflicting analysis, we can feed our minds and nurture our
nest eggs with a strategy that works great in bull and bear markets.
Investors over the last seven years have made great gains using
Modern Portfolio Theory, annual rebalancing and hot industries through
my easy as a pie chart strategies. Buy and hold doesn’t work in
a slow growth economy that is fueled by boom and bust cycles, which
is the simple story of the U.S. since 1999. So register now for
my new Get
Rich and Green Investing Retreat in Santa Monica, California
October 8-10, 2009. If you register in the early bird registration
period (now through August 15, 2009), you receive $600 off the normal
price! So, call 866.476.7442 or email Info@NataliePace.com
NOW to register!
Here is what
a few prior attendees report on their gains since attending.
"Since
attending the Nov and Feb retreat, I've made gains in LDK of 124%,
SPWRA 30%, and STP 64%. That's a profit of $15,000 in three
months. My broker managed to lose $100K in a year. I
need to learn to manage my own finances at this age of 66 years
and semiretirement." Rita
"My stock
account is up 55% since your workshop in the fall of 2008. You rock!"
Jeff, options trading guru
"I made enough
money my first week to pay for my trip, Thanks!"
Randall, November
2008 Natalie Pace Retreat Attendee
Click
Here To Register Now
Santa
Monica, CA
Why
Get Smart About Your Money Now?
While you were asleep at the wheel your money was
out carousing with chronies, funding the Bailout Index,
tobacco companies, big oil, insurance and Fannie Mae.
And
you wonder why you lost so much money.
Get
rich and green.
Not
only can you get rich, but you can use your investment
dollars to fuel clean energy, fuel-efficient cars, natural
health cures and all sorts of products, goods and services
that make up a more beautiful world. Instead of the
Bailout Index. Instead of AIG.
And
If That Weren't Enough, Come Because:
Natalie saved Bill and Nilo’s nest egg in February 2008
— all of it — using a pie chart that she drew on a napkin.
Yes, it is that easy, but you must know the formula.
Natalie mentored the Green Goddess Investment Club,
a group of money newbie actresses, to earn almost 40%
gains in their first trade in 2008 and to cash in 150%
gains in 2009 — during a time that the markets lost
almost 50% of its value.
Why
learn from Natalie?
-- Up to 85% of the positions featured in her monthly
Hot News on Cool Stocks list in 2008 and 2009 were winning
investments.
-- She’s been ranked #1 stock picker, above 850 A-list
pundits by TipsTraders.com
-- She’s the only financial pundit with an enthusiastic
recommendation from a Nobel Prize winning economist
-- November retreat attendees report making back the
price of their retreat within one week!
-- TD AMERITRADE Chairman Joe Moglia endorses her new
book
Testimonials
“Nobody
cares more about your money than you do. Natalie does
a terrific job of explaining how and why you should
be taking more responsibility for your own financial
well being.”
- Joe Moglia, Chairman, TD AMERITRADE
"Natalie
takes the mystery and confusion out of personal finance
and liberates you from the myth that Wall Street smarts
are the monopoly of professional brokers. Whether your
current financial means are modest or substantial, her
time-tested, hands-on, interactive and intuitive methods
of successful investing will assist you in dissolving
your money obstacles."
- Michael Bernard Beckwith, founder of Agape International
Spiritual Center
“Natalie
Pace's sound strategies, helped me avert a huge loss
on my 401k plan. Moving my money to a safe place saved
me thousands when the market plummeted.”
- Nilo Bolden, Law Firm Administrator
"I
have made enough money my fist week to pay for my trip,
Thanks!"
Randall, November 2008 Natalie Pace Retreat Attendee
WHERE
AND HOW MUCH:
Early Bird Pricing (now through August 15, 2009)
$1,595 per person
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Last
Minute Pricing (after September 15, 2009)
$1,995 per person
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PLEASE
NOTE: Lodging, food, transportation, parking, etc. are
not included in the retreat price. THIS RETREAT IS AN
INTIMATE, EXCLUSIVE EVENT. All 3 days are taught hands-on
by Natalie Pace.
Early
birds receive FREE gifts valued at over $1,600 - a premium
subscription upgrade (valid through the end of the year)
AND a 21-day wealth consciousness coaching call series.
10 minutes each day add up to a new habit of attracting
prosperity and abundance in all you do. Every cent you
own and every moment you spend is always an investment.
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and survival and
New habits to start living your dream come true right
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Track
Record of our Reporting
While the
markets have fallen in 2008, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists
below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years.
76 positions listed below – 80% -- have delivered impressive
gains over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial
Average is trading lower than it was ten years ago! Only
nineteen of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting,
which is quite impressive given the horrible market drop of 2008-2009.
Additionally, in 2008, nineteen out of 27 companies that were featured
in our monthly articles and stock report cards posted strong gains.
That is also a 77% winning track record! (We are really coming up
with the winning 7s this year.)
See the article,
"New
Year. New You. New Nest Egg," in Vol. 6, issue 1, for
the chart and more details.
Yes, many, but
not all, of our top performers in 2008 and 2009 are shorts, which
is why we added options training to the retreat. Remember that the
trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your profits early and often in this volatile, down-trending year.
3 out
of 6 Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My
2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains
(Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech
Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.
MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of
News Corp’s success with shareholders that year. So three
out of six are superperformers, and one (Myspace) performed well
above the market. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top
on Wall Street. (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02,
and featured the first Company of the Year on 1.1.03.)
TipsTraders.com
continues to list me as a Highly Recommended Stock Picker, with
their independent ranking system, where I’ve repeatedly occupied
the #1 position and have consistently scored at the top of their
830 A-list pundits. I scored a #11 ranking for 2008. Some of my
best picks include: Google (GOOG) +545%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio
Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
+107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in
2008 were put options – on the Cooling Off list. Look there for
details on the incredible gains options investors enjoyed on Wells
Fargo, Fortress Investment Group, Sears Holding, Fannie Mae, Toll
Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.
Market
Movers:
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds
rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the 6.24.09
meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve Board further elaborated on
the reasoning behind the rock bottom rates, writing: "Most
participants saw the economy as still quite weak and vulnerable
to further adverse shocks… Participants generally noted that the
improvement in market conditions was in part due to ongoing support
from various government programs and that underlying financial conditions
remained fragile." The minutes quotes the participants as acknowledging
that, "The future path of the federal funds rate would depend
on the Committee's evolving expectations for the economy, but for
now, members thought it most likely that the federal funds rate
would need to be maintained at an exceptionally low level for an
extended period."
That is Fed-speak
for "We are doing everything to stimulate the economy, which
should work eventually, but the situation is still rough, folks."
Deflation was no longer much of a concern, but inflation continues
to be a big question mark going forward, once the economy starts
to recover.
The Milken
Institute estimates that the bailout to date has already
cost the taxpayer $9.9 trillion.
The next FOMC
meeting takes place on August 11-12, 2009.
Final
GDP growth rates for 2Q 2009 were a decline of -1%. The
economy contracted at –5.5% in the 1Q 2009 and -6.3% in the 4th
quarter of 2008.
Advance GDP
growth estimates for 2Q 2009 were released on July 31, 2009 at 8:30
a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall Street.
Negative GDP tends to cause sell-offs in the stock markets. Robust
GDP growth reports spark rallies. Since the advance estimates were
so dismal, it’s hard to imagine a big downside surprise. For more
BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section
often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1.
FOMC Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the June 23-24, 2009 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can.
The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click
on FOMC,
or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2009 calendar is: August 11-12, 2009
(Tuesday-Wednesday), September 22-23, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
November 3-4, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 15-16, 2009 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
January 26-27, 2010 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 16 (Tuesday), April
27-28 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June 22-23 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August
10 (Tuesday), September 21 (Tuesday), November 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
December 14 (Tuesday), January 25-26, 2011 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more:
Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. There
are many wonderful opportunities to chat one-on-one with millionaire
money managers, life coaches, economists, respected money gurus,
real estate veterans and CEOs! Be sure to check out the dates of
the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication
date of our next ezine. Get more information on how to best use
our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu
link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
Don’t missue
the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com
on Wednesday, June 3, 2009 at 5:00 p.m. PT (8:00 p.m. ET).
Get log-in instructions on the Sharing Wisdom bulletin board. This
is a Q&A format, where you can Twitter in your questions. Be
sure to write down your most pressing questions now, and become
a friend to Natalie Pace on Twitter at Twitter.com/NataliePace,
so that you can Tweet on the show.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page!
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending)
and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement is scheduled for August 6, 2009 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (September
3, 2009 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual
stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t
have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
None
Profit-Taking
(Take your profits early and often):
KCI Concepts
(KCI) +49%
LDK
(LDK) +224%
New Zealand Dollar Currency ETF (BNZ) +22%
U.S. Gold (UXG) +564%
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
Conergy
7.20.09
Emcore
(EMKR) 6.1.09
Ener1 (HEV) 6.1.09
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
| Company |
NP owns? |
Symbol
|
Price
when featured |
Price
7.29.09 |
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains
since original feature |
|
Hoku Scientific
Hawaii
RISK: HIGH
|
Yes
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$2.00
(3.2.09)
|
$2.06
|
$14.55
$1.90
|
-74% &
+3%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny
Side,"
Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.
Earnings call of 1Q 2010 and the
future of the business will be discussed on July 30, 2009
at 5:00 p.m. ET. (Data was not available at press time).
Earnings for June 11, 2009 at 5:00
p.m. ET. Revenue for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2009
was $5.0 million, compared to $3.2 million for fiscal 2008.
Net loss, computed in accordance with U.S. generally accepted
accounting principles, or GAAP, for the fiscal year ended
March 31, 2009 was $3.0 million, or $0.15 per diluted share,
compared to $4.3 million, or $0.26 per diluted share for fiscal
2008.
"Provided
we are able to secure the required financing for the construction
of our polysilicon plant, we look forward to generating revenue
from the sale of polysilicon in fiscal 2010." according to
Dustin Shindo, Chairman and CEO. "We were pleased to
have met our revised revenue guidance of $5 million for fiscal
2009. In addition, we received $121 million in customer prepayment
deposits against future polysilicon shipments from our production
facility currently under development in Pocatello, Idaho.
These receipts bring the total amount of prepayment deposits
received as of March 31, 2009 to $134 million."
Contracted to build a polysilicon
facility in Idaho capable of producing up to 2,500 metric
tons of polysilicon per year in Pocatello, Idaho. The first
six of 28 polysilicon reactors were delivered to Pocatello
on January 14, 2009, with the next ten scheduled for delivery
on March 2009. According to the June 11, 2009 press release,
Hoku planned to conduct its initial reactor testing in June
2009, but to preserve cash as Hoku seeks additional financing,
it reported that the testing has been delayed, and may now
occur in the third quarter of calendar year 2009. Subject
to receipt of financing, Hoku plans to make initial shipments
to its customers in the second half of 2009.
|
|
Kinetic Concepts, Inc.
|
No
|
KCI
|
$38.81
$21.05
(12.1.08)
|
$31.30
|
$43.00
$17.86
|
-19% &
+49%
|
|
Read the article, "Beauty
is Skin Deep,"
in Vol. 5, issue 5. If you made a profit of 49%, take your
profits early and often!
REPORTED 2Q 2009 EARNINGS ON 7.21.09.
2009: Kinetic Concepts, Inc. KCI today reported second quarter
2009 total revenue of $491.3 million, an increase of 6% from
the second quarter of 2008. Total revenue for the first half
of 2009 was $961.4 million, a 9% increase from the prior-year
period. Net earnings for the second quarter of 2009 were $58.1
million, or $0.82 per diluted share, compared to a net loss
of $4.8 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, for the same
period of 2008.
Cash and cash equivalents: $235.3
million. Total long-term debt outstanding at June 30, 2009
was $1.396 billion on a GAAP-basis.
FDA approved ABThera™ Open
Abdomen Negative Pressure Therapy System on June 11, 2009.
The new therapy has already been launched, according to Catherine
M. Burzik, KCI’s President and CEO. "I am very pleased
to see the progress of KCI’s business in light of continued
economic and competitive pressures," said Catherine Burzik,
President and Chief Executive Officer of KCI. "KCI continues
to meet its goals in terms of innovation, global market expansion
and operational efficiency. We recently introduced our highly
innovative open abdominal wound system, AbThera, to operating
room surgeons in the U.S. and Europe and we are on track with
our plans for the launch of V.A.C. Therapy in Japan. We look
forward to the second half of the year with confidence."
KCI won its suit in the U.S. against
Smith and Nephew to prevent them from selling foam dressing
kits. On June 15, 2009, The Federal Court of Australia, Victoria
District Registry, issued a temporary injunction prohibiting
Smith & Nephew. Trial in Australia is set for 2010. UK
issued a temporary injunction and the German courts are considering
the same action as well. Smith & Nephew has vowed to appeal.
|
|
LDK Solar
GREEN
|
Yes
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$11.07
|
$76.75
$3.75
|
-63% &
+224%
|
|
On 7.23.09, LDK reported that the
company expects to record a write-down of $150 to $160 million
against the cost of inventories for a decline in net realizable
value of inventories resulting from the continued market price
decline for solar wafers. As a result, the gross margin is
expected to be negative and LDK Solar expects to report a
net loss of $180 to $200 million in the second quarter.
Read the articles, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
Take your profits early and often!
If you made 224% gains, take your profits.
First quarter 2009 earnings
results (5.21.09): Revenue was $283.3 million, up 21.4%
year-over-year;
* Secured RMB 200 million loan
from China Development Bank and received approval for RMB
1 billion credit line from Agricultural Development Bank of
China;
* And shipped 206 MW of wafers,
up 72.8% year-over-year.
LDK Solar ended fiscal 2008 with
$255.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and $83.4 million
in short-term pledged bank deposits. "Despite its challenges,
2008 was a year of impressive and rapid growth for LDK Solar,"
stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar.
|
|
New Zealand Dollar currency ETF
by WisdomTree
|
No
|
BNZ
|
$25.17
$18.49
(12.1.08)
|
$22.55
|
$25.31
$16.67
|
-10% &
+22%
|
|
Read the article, "Foreign
Investing:
From BRICs to Barbeys,"
in Vol. 5, issue 7, for more information on why New Zealand
is the new attraction on the world currency markets.
|
|
Smith & Nephew
London, England
RISK: MEDIUM
|
Yes
|
SNN
|
$55.78
$34.21
(5.15.08)
|
$38.91
|
$69.20
$30.27
|
-30% &
+14%
|
|
Announced full year earnings on
February 12, 2009: $3.8 billion in earnings. Read the article
in Vol.
4, issue 7. The company is based out of London, England.
SNN has a piece of an exploding marketplace in the hip resurfacing
business with its premiere product, called the BIRMINGHAM
HIP* Resurfacing System. Hip resurfacing is far less invasive
than the total hip replacement and even has athletes like
Floyd Landis and Gary Kobat back competing in running and
biking within a year of surgery!
On 1.30.09, Smith & Nephew,
Inc. (NYSE: SNN, LSE: SN) announced that its Orthopaedics
Reconstruction Division has entered into a grant administration
agreement with the Orthopaedic Research and Education Foundation
(OREF). This should help training and adoption of the innovative
orthopaedic products that SNN has been pioneering.
"OREF is grateful to Smith &
Nephew for their willingness to participate in this innovative
program that facilitates industry support for a broad array
of programs, including CME," said Dr. William Cooney, Chairman
of the Board of Trustees of OREF. "The landscape for funding
research and education is becoming much more complex, not
just in orthopaedics, but in all of medicine. We believe that
this program may serve as the model for how such funding can
be provided in the future, and are pleased that Smith &
Nephew shares that vision."
|
|
U.S. Gold
Colorado USA
RISK: VERY HIGH
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.05
$.50
|
$2.82
|
$7.04
$.38
|
-44%
+564%
|
|
Note: U.S. Gold is not producing
gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based
in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining
company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should
spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very
risky.
NOTE: The mantra this year continues
to be TAKE YOUR PROFITS EARLY AND OFTEN. If you’ve made a
return of over 5 times your investment, consider taking some
of your profits. Since gold is still in favor (in our view)
and U.S. Gold has not hit its full potential (in my view),
I’m keeping this company on the Hot News List. Profit-taking
is not the same as selling off all of the position.
If you believe in this CEO and
company, you’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S.
Gold going forward as well, however. Gold should be a great
hedge against inflation, which is predicted to become an issue
once the economy starts to rebound. (Right now, the Feds are
concerned about deflation, but inflation could begin on the
12-24 month horizon.)
The Company's primary objective
in Nevada is to discover the next Cortez Hills deposit. Cortez
Hills, owned by the world's largest gold producer, is Nevada's
largest gold discovery of the past decade and located just
10 miles (16 km) north of U.S. Gold. They also have mines
in Mexico that are promising high grade gold and silver ore.
This is an exploration company, not a mining company. They
don’t produce gold at this time.
Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
See the feature
interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen in Vol.
3, issue 2, and click to watch highlights from Natalie
Pace’s Q&A with Rob McEwen on NataliePaceDOTCOM YouTube.com
channel. You can review my
original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on
U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).
|
Recently
Deleted Companies 2008/2009:
Echelon +20%,
GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson
+10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%,
Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08)
+40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek
(deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was
deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking
on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken
on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1
and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1 and
12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits
20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On
2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de
Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42%
on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%.
OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto
was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following
companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%),
GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC
(+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%)
and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%,
AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted
4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google
+9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%,
SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpack
+42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19%
gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with
50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%. Deteled 5.15.09:
SQM with gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09: EMKR
with losses of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1 with
gains of 11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy with losses of -52-98%.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
Conergy
(CEYHF) 7.20.09
Emcore (EMKR) 6.1.09
Ener1 (HEV) 6.1.09
Melco Crown (6.1.09)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price 6.17.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Conergy
Based out of Germany
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
CEYHF
|
$22.50
$1.55 (12.1.08)
|
$0.98
|
$96.14
$.41
|
-98% &
-52%
|
|
Deleted 7.20.09. See the Wind
Power article
in Vol. 4, issue 11. Has multiple sales agreements with Suntech
Power Holdings to utilize STP panels in their global systems
integration. On 3.26.09, announced that company would be delaying
publication of 2008 financial statements, which were originally
due on March 27, 2009. Reason is that they are in negotiation
with an important supplier and the "outcome of these
discussions has a considerable effect on the annual results."
|
|
Emcore
|
No
|
EMKR
|
$11.02
$1.51 (12.1.08)
|
$1.31
|
$14.98
$0.50
|
-88%
-13%
|
|
Deleted from Hot News list on
5.31.09. Cash on hand is lower than last quarter’s net loss.
EMCORE Corp (EMCORE) is a provider
of compound semiconductor-based components and subsystems
for the broadband, fiber optic, satellite and terrestrial
solar power markets. The Company operates in two segments:
Fiber Optics and Photovoltaics. Was awarded an R&D 100
award by R&D Magazine for the IMM solar cell as one of
the most innovative technologies of 2008.
Class action lawsuit was filed
on 2.11.09 declaring that Emcore mislead investors about its
earnings, backlog, customers, etc.
On June 18, 2008, Emcore announced
that IBM used 55 miles of optical fiber EMCORE Connects Cables
to build Roadrunner HPC system.
2Q 2009 results on May 11, 2009
was NOT good news and investors sold off in droves: Revenue
for the second quarter of fiscal 2009 was $43.3 million, a
decrease of $13.0 million, or 23%, from $56.3 million reported
in the same period last year and a decrease of $10.8 million,
or 20%, from $54.1 million reported in the immediately preceding
quarter.
As of March 31, 2009, cash, cash
equivalents, and restricted cash totaled approximately $11.6
million, working capital totaled $57.5 million and loans outstanding
under the Company's Loan and Security Agreement with Bank
of America totaled $6.2 million. On a GAAP basis, the consolidated
operating loss for the six months ended March 31, 2009 was
$78.3 million, an increase of $56.2 million from an operating
loss of $22.1 million reported in the same period last year.
Order Backlog: As
of March 31, 2009, the Company had a consolidated order backlog
of approximately $30.7 million comprised of $19.8 million
in order backlog related to our Photovoltaics segment and
$10.9 million in order backlog related to our Fiber Optics
segment. Order backlog is defined as purchase orders or supply
agreements accepted by the Company with expected product delivery
and / or services to be performed within the next twelve months.
|
|
Ener1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$6.06
$5.75 (4.15.09)
|
$6.70
|
$9.49
$2.35
|
+11% &
+17%
|
|
Take profits early and often
in a volatile, down-trending marketplace. Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. HEV is the only lithium-ion battery
manufacturer with commercial-scale production facilities in
the United States of automotive grade quality. On April 1,
2009, HEV announced its membership to the newly launched Energy
Systems Network (ESN), an Indiana-based consortium bringing
together national energy leaders, manufacturing executives,
state officials and civic leaders to create new economic opportunities
and strengthen energy independence by advancing the electric
drive vehicle industry.
On May 8, 2009, Sen. Evan Bayh,
a strong Washington supporter of electric-drive, joined EnerDel
at the battery manufacturer's main production facility today
at noon to inaugurate a major new installation
- the first commercial-scale
production line for automotive-grade lithium-ion batteries
in the U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) who is officiating at
the commissioning ceremony. On the same day, ENER1 announced
that they have signed a Letter of Intent to supply the lithium
ion batteries to Fisker Auto – which plans to have the first
plug-in hybrid available in June of 2010. "We expect that
next-generation automotive alliances, such as the one contemplated
by EnerDel and Fisker, will set the pace for a transformation
in transportation that is inevitable and necessary for our
nation's energy security and the preservation of the global
environment."
|
|
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd.
|
No
|
MPEL
|
$6.54
|
$6.02
|
$19.09
$2.31
|
-8%
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
(Vol. 5, issue 10). Operates
Crown, a 6- star Resort and Casino in Macau, the trendy Mocha
slot machine cafes and is developing City of Dreams in Macau,
with Hard Rock, Hyatt and Dragone Entertainment. CEO/Chairman
Lawrence Ho is the son of Macau gambling billionaire Stanley
Ho.
Upgraded to NASDAQ Global Select
Market on 1.2.09.
On 3.31.09, the Company recorded
annual earnings of $1.4 billion (over $360 million last year)
and a profit of $1.2 million.
Cash and cash equivalents are at
$815 million.
Melco Crown Gaming has a rating
of "BB" by Standard & Poor’s and a rating of
"Ba3" by Moody’s Investors Service. For future borrowings,
any decrease in our corporate rating could result in an increase
in borrowing costs.
The City of Dreams project in Macau
looks to be in good shape and is scheduled to open in the
"first half of 2009." Melco CEO and co-Chairman
Lawrence Ho (age 31) is the son of one Macau’s most powerful
casino monopolists over the past century – the legendary Stanley
Ho. Deep pockets and rich connections.
According to the Melco press release:
Combining electrifying entertainment, stylish nightclubs,
a diverse array of accommodation, regional and international
dining, world-class shopping and a spacious and contemporary
casino, City of Dreams will usher in a new era of gaming and
entertainment when it opens in Cotai during the first half
of 2009. The resort brings together a dream team of world-renowned
brands such as Crown, Grand Hyatt, Hard Rock and Dragone to
create an exceptional entertainment experience that will appeal
to the broadest spectrum of visitors from around Asia and
the world.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List. Read carefully to identify which is which!
Note that
right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List,
anticipating continued weakening of the stock market, and share
prices.
Recent
Additions:
None
Recent
Deletions:
None
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when featured
|
Price
7.29.09
|
Year High
Year Low
|
Gains since original feature
|
|
Altair Nano-technology
|
No
|
ALTI
|
$1.16
|
$0.99
|
$2.94
$0.60
|
-12%
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with Lithium"
Vol. 6, issue 4. 2Q earnings call will be on August 6, 2009
at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
|
|
American Superconductor
|
Yes
|
AMSC
|
$29.44
|
$26.28
|
$47.53
$8.22
|
-11%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
|
|
Big Lots
|
No
|
BIG
|
$30.28
|
$23.07
|
$34.88
$12.40
|
-24%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Canadian Imperial Bank
RISK: Medium
|
No
|
CM
|
$65.88
|
$60.14
|
$108.79
$30.64
|
-9%
|
|
Refer to the "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars"
article in Vol. 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets
are under duress. Avoid most banks for now.
|
|
Citigroup
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
C
|
$2.26
|
$3.22
|
$27.35
$.97
|
+42%
|
|
Financial markets are under duress.
Avoid most banks for now. Bailed out by the Feds November
2008. 1Q 2009 results will be released on 4.17.09 at 6:30
a.m. ET.
|
|
eBay
|
No
|
EBAY
|
$16.80
|
$21.40
|
$32.10
$9.91
|
+27%
|
|
Forward P/E is 12.92.
|
|
Ener1
|
No
|
HEV
|
$6.86
|
$6.10
|
$9.49
$2.35
|
-11%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$51.36
|
$42.94
|
$80.23
$28.53
|
-16%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$393.69
|
$436.24
|
$602.45
$247.30
|
+11%
|
|
See Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes."
|
|
Maxwell Labs
|
No
|
MXWL
|
$10.25
|
$13.97
|
$14.75
$4.00
|
+36%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Lithium"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
No
|
WFR
|
$18.08
|
$18.24
|
$73.56
$10.00
|
flat
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
2Q 2009 earnings report 7.13.09:
"While we saw a significant
increase in sales compared with the first quarter, our overall
results continue to reflect the generally weak macroeconomic
conditions," said Ahmad Chatila, MEMC's President and Chief
Executive Officer. "Semiconductor wafer volumes rose from
severely depressed first quarter levels, primarily due to
stronger demand from Asia and inventory replenishment, but
continued to be significantly below historical levels. In
solar, limited credit availability in the broader solar market
continued to restrain demand while supply excesses remain
visible across the solar value chain. On the positive side,
MEMC continued to broaden its solar wafer customer base during
the quarter, adding several new customers."
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$20.12
|
$23.80
|
$30.53
$14.87
|
+17%
|
|
Great blue chip. Buy at the best
possible price.
|
|
NetGear
Silicon Valley, CA
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
NTGR
|
$26.38
|
$16.47
|
$41.33
$8.21
|
-37%
|
|
With the financial crisis and the
crush it has put on the consumer’s wallet, I would be wary
about NetGear’s earnings reports in the coming quarters, since
so many of the company’s many products are reliant upon the
consumer electronics industry. Share price is getting hammered.
I don’t think this trend is over yet.
Watch Natalie Pace’s Exclusive
Forbes.com Video Network Q&A with Patrick Lo (from August
2006). Award Heaven! Patrick Lo, CEO, won the Ernst &
Young’s Entrepreneur of the Year Award (on 6.16.06), NetGear
was on Business Week’s Hot 100 list (for the 2nd
year), NetGear was awarded Best Buy’s Bravo Award for Business
Excellence and POPULAR MECHANICS gave NetGear’s Skype phone
its Breakthrough Award.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy
ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.78
|
$10.40
|
$23.96
$5.78
|
+4%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RTP
|
$180.79
|
$152.08
|
$558.65
$59.20
|
-16%
|
|
Gold, copper and other commodities
mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly
in Australia.
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$44.40
|
$39.23
$21.23
|
+24%
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores,"
from Vol. 5, issue 6.
|
|
Satcon
|
No
|
SATC
|
$2.30
|
$1.92
|
$3.51
$1.08
|
-17%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. Announces 2Q results on 8.13.09.
|
|
Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$36.36
|
$35.40
|
$59.41
$12.98
|
-3%
|
|
Read the article, Treasure
Hunting, in Vol.
5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with Lithium,"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
|
|
Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)
Beijing, China
Small Cap
RISK: MEDIUM
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$46.54
|
$60.78
|
$91.50
$34.10
|
+31%
|
|
See NataliePace.com ezines, Vol.
3, issue 4 and
Vol.
2, issue 9 for
feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman
and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs
of the year in 2007.
Read the articles in Vol.
4, issue 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang
in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$30.26
|
$31.29
|
$107.00
$18.50
|
+3%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny
Side"
in Vol. 6, issue 3.
Announced 1Q earnings on April
23, 2009. Revenue for the 2009 first quarter was $214 million
and compares to revenues of $401 million in the fourth quarter
of 2008 and $274 million in the first quarter of last year.
Net loss was $5 million.
"The first quarter of 2009 was
the most challenging quarter we've seen since SunPower went
public in 2005," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO. "Our quarterly
performance was impacted by seasonality, the continuing effects
of the credit crisis and difficult economic conditions. Despite
these headwinds we were able to deliver strong gross margins
in our Components business and positive non-GAAP net income.
4.30.09: NJ’s largest utility,
Public Service Electric and Gas, just financed having Sunpower
install a 1.2-megawatt solar power system for Certified Steel
Co.'s 330,000-square-foot facility in Hamilton, NJ. The system
is due to be finished in July.
Sunpower just raised an additional
$417.6 million through issuance of 10,350,000 Class A shares
(at $22.00 per share) and 4.75% senior convertible debentures
due 2014. (4.30.09)
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
|
No
|
STP
|
$16.06
|
$18.67
|
$49.60
$5.09
|
+16%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. Announces 3Q 2009 on August 20, 2009 before
the markets open.
|
|
Trina Solar Ltd.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$17.56
|
$27.94
|
$53.50
$5.61
|
+59%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny
Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
7.28.09: 20-F Annual report (of
foreign issuers):
For the second quarter 2009,
the Company estimates: --
total shipments of approximately 63 MW to 65 MW of PV modules,
compared to the Company's
previous guidance of 60 MW to 65 MW, an increase of
29.1% to 33.2% from the first quarter
of 2009 and an increase of 32.4% to
36.6% from the second quarter of 2008. --
total net revenues of approximately $148 million to $152 million,
an increase of 12.0% to 15.1%
from the first quarter of 2009 and a decrease
of 25.6% to 27.5% from the second quarter of 2008.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$73.54
|
$84.58
|
$122.58
$45.16
|
+15%
|
|
Issued it’s half-year "interim"
results on May 6, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.
|
|
Wisdom Tree Indian Rupee currency
ETF
|
No
|
ICN
|
$24.28
|
$24.00
|
$25.71
$20.42
|
flat
|
|
Read the article, "Banking
on Iraqi Dinars,"
from Vol. 5, issue 2.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
American
Express (AXP)
Apple (APPL)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Baidu (BIDU)
Berkshire
Hathaway (BRK.A)
Capital One (COF)
Intel (INTC)
Medtronic (MDT)
Sears Holding Company (SHLD)
Taubman Centers REIT (TCO)
Time Warner (TWX)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
DELETIONS:
None
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added to Cooling
Off List
|
Price 5.29.09
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
American
Express
|
Yes
|
AXP
|
$16.98
$27.28
(5.1.09)
|
$27.75
|
$52.63
$14.72
|
+63% &
flat
|
|
Read the
article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2. Revenue in the 2nd Q 2009
was off 18% and net income was down 48%, to $337 million.
|
|
Apple
Computer
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$132.07
|
$160.03
|
$192.24
$78.20
|
+21%
|
|
See archived
ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple
Chips."
The Methodist
University Hospital Transplant Institute confirmed on
6.23.09 (by press release) that Steve Jobs received a liver
transplant at their hospital, and that he qualified for the
transplant because he had the highest MELD score, meaning
that he was sickest patient on the waiting list at the time
a donor organ became available. According to James D. Eason,
M.D., program director at the hospital, Mr. Jobs is now recovering
well and has an excellent prognosis.
So will
Jobs return? Apple is notorious for being circumspect about
Jobs’ health and there has been no official word on the issue.
Apple quoted Jobs on the earnings press release of July 21,
2009, but did not include him on the earnings call. This is
perhaps the strongest clue we will receive of his current
role with the company – still chief visionary officer, but
perhaps not recovered enough to attend to the day-to-day operations.
I love Apple and have Apple everything. But the 28 price to
earnings ratio seems too optimistic to me for a global recession,
and all investors should be aware of how beloved Jobs is as
a CEO. Even if Tim Cook can do a great job, which he seems
to be doing, it’s likely to be a very volatile day for Apple
when/if the Jobs liver transplant starts hitting the headlines.
3Q 2009
earnings were amazing: posted revenue of $8.34 billion and
a net quarterly profit of $1.23 billion, or $1.35 per diluted
share. These results compare to revenue of $7.46 billion and
net quarterly profit of $1.07 billion, or $1.19 per diluted
share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.3 percent,
up from 34.8 percent in the year-ago quarter. International
sales accounted for 44 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
|
|
Applied
Materials
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$12.76
|
$13.61
|
$21.75
$7.17
|
+7%
|
|
Leadership,
product line and recessionary actions are all strong and bode
well for AMAT going forward. Weathering the storm is imperative
in the meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es
of this company, which is hard to justify in a contracting
environment. With almost $2 billion in cash and marketable
securities, AMAT is in a position to regroup and recover in
the future, which is what they are on track to do once the
productions are retracked and the new product focus (solar)
has buyers back at the table. With any luck and with the purported
US emphasis on clean energy (which has yet to see real funding),
this is a temporary setback.
2nd
quarter loss (released on 5.12.09) was $255 million on $1.02
billion of net sales. "In a period of exceptionally weak
demand, Applied preserved its strong balance sheet, returned
a dividend to our stockholders and made substantial investments
in our future," said Mike Splinter, Chairman and CEO.
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$183.15
|
$344.51
|
$397.70
$100.50
|
+88%
|
|
Leading
Chinese website for search (similar to Google). 78 P/E is
high for a declining marketplace. (Advertising revenue models
tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only
30, by comparison, right now.)
7.27.09
1Q 2009 earnings: According to the company, "Our operations
are primarily based in China, where we derive substantially
all of our revenues. Total revenues in 2008 were RMB3.2 billion
(US$468.8 million), an 83.3% increase over 2007. Operating
profit in 2008 was RMB1.1 billion (US$160.8 million), a 100.4%
increase over 2007. Net income in 2008 was RMB1.0 billion
(US$153.6 million), a 66.6% increase over 2007."
The primary
Risk Factor for Baidu is: We derive revenues primarily from
online marketing services, which accounted for 98.9%, 99.8%
and 99.9% of our total revenues in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.
|
| Berkshire
Hathaway |
No |
BRK.A |
$97,000 |
$97,000 |
$147,000
$70,050 |
-- |
| Read
"The
Oracle Turns 80," in Vol. 6, issue 8. |
|
Capital
One Financial
|
No
|
COF
|
$22.29
|
$29.71
|
$63.50
$7.80
|
+33%
|
|
Credit
card companies are under distress. Capital One lost $732 million
last year on almost $11 billion in earnings. Earnings were
off 24% in the first quarter from the prior year. And now,
the Obama Administration is setting up a Bill of Rights for
their customer. Tough times for the credit industry continue,
and this company is really experiencing some of the toughest
challenges of the field.
Read the
article "American
Express,"
from Vol. 6, issue 2.
|
|
First Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$193.09
|
$167.99
|
$317.00
$85.28
|
-13%
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, issue 4. Announces earnings on 7.30.09
after the markets close.
1Q 2009 on 4.30.09: Quarterly revenues
were $418.2 million, down from $433.7 million in the fourth
quarter of fiscal 2008 and up from $196.9 million in the first
quarter of fiscal 2008. Net income for the first quarter of
fiscal 2009 was $164.6 million or $1.99 per share on a fully
diluted basis, up from $132.8 million or $1.61 per share on
a fully diluted basis for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008
and up from $46.6 million or $0.57 per share on a fully diluted
basis for the first quarter of fiscal 2008.
First Solar uses cadmium telluride
instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy.
This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard
to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for
two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs
are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant
or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article
for more details.
|
|
Fortress Investment Group
|
No
|
FIG
|
$3.57
$5.09 (5.1.09)
|
$3.65
|
$19.50
$0.77
|
Flat &
-28%
|
|
Released 1Q 2009 results on May
6, 2009. Earnings are down -39% in 1Q 2009 from the same quarter
a year ago.
Can you believe that they still
had assets under management of $29.5 billion (as of the end
of 2008) with all of these losses and the colossal salaries
of the five principals? Last year, $222 million was paid to
the principals, which put the net loss at $322 million, instead
of just $100 million. Can you imagine paying yourself $222
million for losing $100 million? They did manage to get their
debt down to $604 million…
Read the articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Money
Grows on Wisdom Trees,"
from Vol. 4, issue 3. Reported earnings on 3.15.09. FY 2008
GAAP net loss of GAAP net loss of $322 million. Principals
in the company earned $222 million of that net loss.
|
|
Intel
RISK:
LOW
|
No
|
INTC
|
$16.66
|
$19.40
|
$25.29
$12.06
|
+17%
|
|
Intel
is a great blue chip. However, business spending fell off
a cliff in the recession. A P/E of 19 is probably too high
if the recession continues.
Green:
Intel and Google launched ClimateSaversComputing.org in 2007,
with a goal of achieving a 50% power consumption reduction
by 2010. They have convinced all kinds of partners to come
on board, including competitors: Advanced Micro Devices and
Microsoft!
Reported
2Q results on 7.14.09: had non-GAAP operating income of $1.4
billion, net income of $1.0 billion and EPS of 18 cents. On
a GAAP-basis, the company reported an operating loss of $12
million, a net loss of $398 million and a loss per share of
7 cents.
"Intel’s
second-quarter results reflect improving conditions in the
PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter
growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally
stronger second half," said Paul Otellini, Intel president
and CEO. "Intel's strategy of investing in new technologies
and innovative products, combined with ongoing focus on operating
efficiencies, continues to yield benefits that are evident
in our strengthening financial performance."
|
|
KB Home
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
KBH
|
$59.00
|
$16.54
|
$48.67
$6.90
|
-72%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from Vol. 2, issue
5. In May 2005, we called REITs a burnout sector, and the
fallout should continue, with high home prices, rising interest
rates, people backing out of contracts and rising inventory.
REALTOR.org’s chief economist is not predicting housing to
recover in 2009. "Disproportionately high distressed home
sales will continue for the remainder of the year because
foreclosures and the release of foreclosed properties onto
the market will be rising for the remainder of the year."
Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of Realtors,
in a press release dated May 27, 2009.
McMansions are going the way of
Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient
world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying
new real estate these days at prices that KB can make a profit
on (considering their cost to carry the land, etc.)?
6.26.09 1Q 2009 earnings: Revenues
totaled $384.5 million in the second quarter of 2009, down
40% from $639.1 million in the year-earlier quarter. The Company
reported a net loss of $78.4 million. The Company ended its
2009 second quarter with a cash balance of $1.10 billion,
including $102.2 million of restricted cash, and no borrowings
outstanding on its revolving credit facility. As of May 31,
2009, the Company’s debt balance totaled $1.71 billion.
|
|
Medtronic
|
No
|
MDT
|
$33.35
|
$35.40
|
$56.97
$24.06
|
+6%
|
|
Medtronic’s
Infuse Bone Graft product has been linked with a number of
problems, including that the doctor paid to report on the
studies of the product falsified positive reports. Other allegations
include aggressive incentives for doctors to use the device.
While these are allegations at this point, and not proven
facts, biotechnology is a volatile industry and the negative
headlines that keep coming from the Wall Street Journal
are unlikely to make this company the Belle of Wall Street.
On 5.19.09,
the company issued a press release, saying: "For fiscal
year 2010, the company expects revenue growth in the range
of 5-8 percent on a constant currency basis. The company also
expects diluted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $3.10
to $3.20, which reflects EPS growth in the range of 8-12 percent
after adjusting for approximately 6-7 cents of earnings dilution
from the recent acquisitions of CryoCath, Ablation Frontiers,
Ventor, and CoreValve."
"Earnings
per share estimates exclude the effect of any special or extraordinary
charges that may impact the company’s continuing operations
and do not include the impact of the new accounting method
for recognizing non-cash interest expense on convertible debt."
|
|
MGM Mirage
|
No
|
MGM
|
$26.79
|
$7.38
|
$100.50
$5.10
|
-72%
|
|
Earnings report on 8.3.09 at market’s
open.
Get more information in Vol. 5,
issue 10 in the (No)
Viva Las Vegas
article. The City Center project looms as exceedingly problematic
in today’s vast downturn of real estate in the Las Vegas area.
Anticipating very bad news on this project in the near future.
May 15, 2009 is the D-day for MGM to find a way to appease
its creditors about the $14.3 billion in long-term debt that
is due. Additionally, Dubai World appears to want out of the
City Center project.
5.4.09 1Q 2009 results: Net revenue
decreased 20% to $1.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009.
Revenues were negatively impacted by increased convention
cancellations - particularly in January and February and at
the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts - and a continued decline
in discretionary spending due to the weakened economy. Occupancy
at the Company's Las Vegas Strip resorts was unusually low
in January, improved in February, and returned to a normalized
level of approximately 95% in March. The convention cancellations
forced the Company to shift hotel business to the leisure
segment at lower room rates. As a result of these factors,
Las Vegas Strip REVPAR(1) decreased by 34%, to $102 for the
first quarter of 2009 compared to $154 in the first quarter
of 2008.Total casino revenue declined 16%. Net income $105
million, compared to $118 million a year ago.
MGM has a new CEO and Chairman
effective December 1, 2008. James J. Murren became the Company's
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, effective December 1,
2008. Former Chairman and CEO J. Terrence Lanni will continue
as a member of the Board and will join the Diversity Committee.
majority shareholder and billionaire Kirk Kerkorian was pleased
and issued a statement applauding Lanni’s leadership and succession
plan. (Sounds like Murren might have been Kerkorian’s succession
plan…) Any way, can anyone resurrect Vegas in these turbulent
times?
"Whether or not the CityCenter
project goes into bankruptcy based on continual funding decisions
or MGM goes into bankruptcy based on separate covenant negotiations
is most contingent on whether MGM accepts the banks' terms,"
Bernstein's Research's Janet Brashear wrote to her clients.
|
|
Sears
Holding
|
Yes
|
SHLD
|
$52.93
|
$67.62
|
$108.75
$26.80
|
+28%
|
|
Read the
articles, "Cherry
Picking the Cherry Bombs"
(Vol. 5, issue 12) and the "Discount..."article
(Vol. 5, issue 6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail
chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball
and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge
fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been trying to
get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for months or
been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot for so
long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all of the
board directors at Sears are in the investment business, not
the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott,
a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without
significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board
has any experience at all in retail.
You can
read the shareholders letter from Chairman Eddie Lampert on
the SearsHoldings.com
website. This letter shows you just how much he (thinks he)
knows about investing and banking and the financial crisis
and what should have been handled differently, and how little
the top management at Sears focuses on actual retail. What
in the world does Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
have to do with selling tires and tools and a strategy to
get through the recession until people start buying things
again? Alright, 10 minutes into the letter, and I have to
call this a rant. Big red flag folks.
Still
don’t have a CEO. Bruce Johnson is interim CEO. New CFO started
last October, right before the preparation of the annual report
began. The former CFO Miles Reidy decided that he needed to
spend more time with his family than to put is name on the
2008 annual report. Another big red flag.
|
|
Taubman
Centers REIT
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
|
$26.88
|
$65.99
$12.43
|
+9%
|
|
Read the
article, "Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.
The income
reported on July 23, 2009 was actually "cancellation
income," not rent. Read the details, not just the numbers.
"The environment
for retail real estate continues to be challenging," said
Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and chief executive
officer of Taubman Centers. "Lease cancellation income from
our tenants offset a decline in rents. In addition, we are
very focused on costs throughout our organization, which contributed
to our results during the quarter."
2Q 2009
earnings on 7.23.09: Net income allocable to common shareholders
per diluted share (EPS) was $0.17 for the quarter ended June
30, 2009, up from $0.01 for the quarter ended June 30, 2008.
EPS for the six months ended June 30, 2009 was $0.38, up from
$0.09 for the first six months of 2008.
|
|
Time Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$27.04
|
$50.70
$17.81
|
+11%
|
|
Read the
article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
2Q earnings
on 7.29.09: In the quarter, Revenues declined 9% from the
same period in 2008 to $6.8 billion. Lower revenues at the
Publishing, AOL and Filmed Entertainment segments more than
offset growth at the Networks segment. Net Income was $519
million, down from $792 million the year prior.
CEO Jeff
Bewkes said: "At the same time, we’re continuing the
reshaping of Time Warner that we started last year. We’re
on track to spin off AOL to our stockholders around the end
of the year. Separating AOL will benefit both companies –
enabling Time Warner to concentrate fully on our core content
businesses and improving AOL’s operational and strategic flexibility."
|
|
Toll Brothers
RISK: MEDIUM HIGH
|
No
|
TOL
|
$37.82
|
$19.57
|
$28.00
$15.49
|
-48%
|
|
Read the article, "Rupert
Murdoch, Nobel Laureates and Top Real Estate CEOs. Find Out
Where They Are Investing," from Vol.
2, issue 5 in 2005, when
we first reported on REITs as a burned out sector.
McMansions are going the way of
Hummers (extinct) in the new cleaner, greener, fuel-efficient
world. Who can afford to heat these huge homes? Who is buying
new real estate these days at the prices that TOLL needs to
earn a profit? Real estate is expected to continue to decline
through 2009, at minimum. (Toll Brothers cashed out hundreds
of millions beginning as early as 2005.)
|
|
Wells
Fargo
|
Yes
|
WFC
|
$20.05
$25.50
(6.1.09)
|
$25.10
|
$44.69
$7.80
|
+25% &
-2%
|
|
See "Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression,"
in Vol. 4, issue 12. Announced 2Q earnings on July 22, 2009
in a "news release." Actual SEC filing should occur
within the next two weeks. Average total loans were $833.9
billion compared with $855.6 billion in first quarter 2009,
Record
Wells Fargo net income of $3.17 billion, up 81 percent from
last year; $6.22 billion for six months ended June 30, 2009,
up 66 percent from last year. Second quarter net charge-offs
were $4.4 billion, or 2.11 percent of average loans, compared
with first quarter net charge-offs of $3.3 billion, or 1.54
percent of average loans. Legacy Wells Fargo net chargeoffs
were $3.4 billion compared with $2.9 billion in first quarter
2009 and Wachovia net charge-offs totaled $984 million compared
with $371 million in first quarter 2009. "As a result
of our merger, the Wachovia loans with the highest expected
loss content were classified as impaired and the expected
life of loan loss content was reflected in purchase accounting
write-downs at December 31, 2008," said Loughlin. "The
remaining non-impaired portfolio, by definition, should have
lower loss content. The losses in the non-impaired portfolio
increased in the quarter as anticipated given the effects
of purchase accounting and portfolio deterioration. We expect
the non-impaired portfolios to perform significantly better
than the impaired portfolios that have already been written
down through purchase accounting.
Huh? Hmmm….
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$95.42
|
$50.82
|
$176.14
$18.06
|
-47%
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5, issue 10.
2Q 2009 results will be announced
on 7.30.2009. Net revenues for the second quarter of 2009
were $723.3 million, compared to $825.2 million in the second
quarter of 2008. Net income for the quarter was $25.5 million,
or $0.21 per diluted share, compared to net income of $272.0
million, or $2.42 per diluted share in 2008. Adjusted net
income in the second quarter of 2009 was $11.5 million, or
$0.09 per diluted share (adjusted EPS)(2) compared to an adjusted
net income of $124.3 million, or $1.11 per diluted share in
the second quarter of 2008.
Our total cash balances on June
30, 2009 were $1.1 billion. Total debt outstanding at the
end of the quarter was $4.1 billion, including approximately
$2.6 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $1.5 billion of Wynn
Macau debt.
Capital expenditures during the
second quarter of 2009 of approximately $125 million included
the payment of certain construction payables and retention
associated with Encore at Wynn Las Vegas and ongoing construction
of Encore at Wynn Macau.
During the quarter, we repaid the
remaining $375 million under the Wynn Resorts Term Loan Facility
at a discounted price of 97.25% and recognized an $8.8 million
gain on early retirement of debt. We also purchased $26.5
million face amount of the Wynn Las Vegas 6 5/8% First Mortgage
Notes due 2014 at a discount. This transaction resulted in
a gain on early extinguishment of debt of $3.1 million.
|
Recently
Deleted in 2008/2009:
Fannie Mae was
deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price
value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both
puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on
6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was
deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo
was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted
on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on
8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First
Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with
75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was
deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction).
Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on
10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells
Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again
on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in
just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
NataliePace.com Calendar:
Don’t
Miss the Weekly Pace and Prosperity Show on BlogTalkRadio.com. Discover
your prosperity horoscope for the week and ask any question you
like about stocks, the U.S. economy, bonds, T-bills and real estate.
We have the news and info you need!
The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences,
retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market
events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in!
We add online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they
are booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
See below for
just a few of the amazing educational and networking opportunities
that world-class organizations are offering for you. To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Natalie
Pace on BlogTalkRadio with Host Shaun Daily
Wednesday,
August 5, 2009
9:00AM
through 9:30AM PT
Pace and
Prosperity to you! What’s hot? Is the recovery for real? What’s
the best investment when stocks, bonds, T-bills, CDs, real estate,
et al. are all flat or down? Log on at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
to access online or get the call-in phone number.
eWomen
Network International Conference, Dallas, TX
Thursday,
August 6th, 2009
Attend
the largest 4-day women's conference and expo in North America with
CEO Sandra Yancey. Access new customers, expand your business resources
and hear Mimi Donaldson share her tips on Negotiating for Dummies.
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday,
August 11th, 2009
The Federal
Reserve Board governors meet to create some magic for business,
consumers and the Federal government to bring us back to a thriving,
Capitalist economy.
Natalie
Pace on BlogTalkRadio with Host Shaun Daily
Wednesday,
August 12, 2009
9:00AM
through 9:30AM PT
Pace and
Prosperity to you! What’s hot? Is the recovery for real? What’s
the best investment when stocks, bonds, T-bills, CDs, real estate,
et al. are all flat or down? Log on at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
to access online or get the call-in phone number.
Natalie
Pace on BlogTalkRadio with Host Shaun Daily
Wednesday,
August 19, 2009
9:00AM
through 9:30AM PT
Pace and
Prosperity to you! What’s hot? Is the recovery for real? What’s
the best investment when stocks, bonds, T-bills, CDs, real estate,
et al. are all flat or down? Log on at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
to access online or get the call-in phone number.
Natalie
Pace on BlogTalkRadio with Host Shaun Daily
Wednesday,
August 26, 2009
9:00AM
through 9:30AM PT
Pace and
Prosperity to you! What’s hot? Is the recovery for real? What’s
the best investment when stocks, bonds, T-bills, CDs, real estate,
et al. are all flat or down? Log on at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
to access online or get the call-in phone number.
The
Elixir of Love, Los Angeles Opera
Saturday,
September 12th, 2009
7:30PM
through 11:00PM
By Gaetano
Donizetti. Giuseppe Filianoti stars as the lovesick Nemorino in
search of a magic potion to capture the heart of Adina, performed
by Nino Machaidze in her U.S. debut. Executive director is the Maestro
Placido Domingo!
FOMC
Meeting
Tuesday,
September 22nd, 2009
The Federal
Reserve Board governors meet to stimulate the economy.

Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is
by Natalie Pace
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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|
|