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Vol.7 Issue 6, June 1st, 2010
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"My heart is heavy for the 11 that didn't make it from the Horizon… I'm extremely proud of my crew and their performance."

Alwin Landry, captain of Damon Bankston, a supply ship owned by Tidewater.
Captain Alwin Landry and his crew of 12 rescued 115 people when the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded on April 20, 2010


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Clean Up.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes an Oil Spill Stock Report Card.

The Tidewater vessel Damon Bankston which transported 115 survivors from the explosion on the BP/Transocean Deepwater Horizon oil rig.

The BP Gulf Oil Disaster will be with us for a long time to come. And with oil still gushing into the Gulf, it’s hard to pinpoint an exact moment when "kill" efforts finally work and sustained clean up and recovery begins. (We’re all praying this happens yesterday.)

Volunteers are bathing birds and oil-saturated wildlife in mild detergents and are pumping Pepto Bismal into their stomachs to flush out swallowed oil. (Go to TristateBird.org to donate to the effort.) Local fishermen are being tasked with skimming and containment of the oil before it hits the shore. Subsea rovers are producing horrific images from a mile beneath the surface of a problem we have yet to solve.

BP is leading the disaster effort, in conjunction with US authorities and relief efforts, however, there are still far too many questions left unanswered and far too many holes left unplugged. Is BP directly responsible for the disaster or could one of their many contractors be more culpable? Names like Halliburton, Transocean and Dick Cheney have been tossed around by the media (and President Obama), but definitive information on who did what where with regard to contractors – those that might have caused the problem or those that might be helping with the cleanup is still fragmented, at best. (Some potentially responsible parties have largely escaped attention: keep reading.)

According to BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward, "The honest truth is that this is a complex accident, caused by an unprecedented combination of failures. A number of companies are involved, including BP, and it is simply too early – and not up to us – to say who is at fault." No doubt there will be an exhaustive analysis of the failures in an attempt to prevent this from occurring again and to recover damages for the plethora of claims that are already pouring in. According to a BP press release of May 28, 2010, the cost of the response to date amounts to about $930 million, or 1/20 of the $20 billion in profits BP made last year. And this is only the beginning.

BP CEO Haywards’ comments are a sobering reminder that efforts to capitalize on the cleanup by investing in so-called cleanup specialists or shorting culpable culprits are not as easy as they sound. In fact the SEC and FINRA have issued an Investor Alert on scams in the Spill Cleanup Arena, which I’ve reprinted in this ezine.

TransOcean (NYSE: RIG) is a BP partner on the platform, and the company has filed a Limitation of Liability Petition, in the hopes of consolidating the claims of the employees and families impacted by injuries and deaths related to the rig explosion. Nine of the 11 crew members who lost their lives were TransOcean employees. This petition would (reportedly) limit the company’s losses to $27 million. TransOcean stock is already trading at a 5-year low, which will likely go lower.

MI-SWACO, which employed two of the 11 men killed on the Deepwater Horizon rig, is jointly owned by Smith International, Inc. (NYSE:SII) and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB). Smith and Schlumberger have flown under the radar of the media, and the stock of both companies has remained relatively buoyant in the wake of the sinking and gushing disaster. Why wasn’t there a MI-SWACO, Smith International or Schlumberger CEO present at the Congressional hearings?

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) stock has also proven to be fairly resilient, despite a flurry of excoriating headlines. This company is notorious for surviving scandals relatively unscathed. In the Congressional hearings, it appears that the Halliburton strategy is to claim BP made them perform shoddy work with subpar materials.

Oceaneering (NYSE: OII), a company that has been helpful in monitoring the progress beneath the surface with their subsea Remote Operating Vehicles also provides inspection services to BP (an area of obvious failure in this monumental disaster). Oceaneering CEO T. Jay Collins has been quoted as calling Oceaneering "one of the foremost global inspection service providers to the oil and gas industry." An email to Oceaneering asking for clarification on whether the firm provided inspection services to BP in the Gulf was not answered as of press time.

Another company with a fleet of vessels in the general vicinity that might be helping with the cleanup, Gulfmark (NYSE: GLF), has a noteworthy complication. The Chairman of Gulfmark is a former Lehman Bros. Managing Director who jumped ship in September 2008, the month Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy (after being with the firm for 39 years).

And then you have one hero of this entire, unprecedented disaster, who has seen only small glimpses of the limelight. As the fates would have it, a Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) vessel – the Damon B. Bankston – was tethered just 40 feet away from the Deepwater Horizon when the explosion occurred. Thanks to the rapid response of Capt. Alwin Landry and his crew of 12, the loss of life on April 20, 2010 was limited to 11. 115 workers were rescued, cared for and shipped 110 miles to dry land. Far from the standard operating procedures Capt. Landry had encountered over his 14 years with Tidewater Marine -- as the boat captain responsible for hauling mud, food, supplies, crew and more from the Louisiana shore to the offshore oil wells -- he was tasked that night with saving his own skin and others amidst explosions, fireballs and a torrent of mud, while pulling survivors from the deadly drink of the Gulf of Mexico.

Captain Landry has yet to receive his Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Obama (surely he will), but he is my Hero of the Month. And the fact that Tidewater went through all of fiscal 2010 without one lost-time accident, and rewarded their staff with a million dollar bonus (despite a recession and revenue loss in their industry) gives me some faith (not 100% faith, but some) that this company is doing something very, very right from the executive suite to the vessel deck.

At BP, their goals were simply stated - no accidents, no harm to people, and no damage to the environment. Unfortunately, today, that mission leaves a bitter taste in our mouths and an oil spill the size of Delaware in the Gulf of Mexico.

At Tidewater, safety goals were more than just a catchy phrase. 115 people, whose voices might have been forever silenced with Texas Tea, are singing their praises, even if most of the world has yet to hear the encomium.

Tidewater. You get my vote for Company of the Month. During the worst oil spill the world has ever seen, your crew has shown what safety standards and disaster preparedness acts like.

Tidewater was added today to the Stocks to Watch List of my ongoing Hot News on Cool Stocks list, in anticipation that the oil spill will continue to drag on the markets and that the good news of these heroes will continue to be buried in the ongoing horror of this disaster. (In other words, it’s likely that the Tidewater share price will be lower as the summer wears on, particularly if we have a devastating hurricane season.) Transocean was added to the Cooling Off List. To line up the numbers of these companies, alongside BP, Halliburton and Gulfmark, click on the Oil Spill Stock Report Card.

Should you short BP stock?
So what about BP stock? Should you short it? This disaster will cost BP billions – a price that a company with $272 billion in sales and $20 billion in profits can afford. It is unlikely that BP’s customers (drivers everywhere) will stop needing their product, so even with a disaster of this size, sales and profits will continue virtually uninterrupted. Oil company share price is so closely linked with oil prices that if this disaster interrupts supply (and causes prices to escalate), it is likely that even BP will be carried in the upswing.

By comparison, Exxon Mobil’s share price ended up higher the year of the Valdez disaster. The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred on March 24, 1989, when the Exxon share price was trading at $11.13/share. The spill had very little impact on Exxon’s share price, which traded at $12.50/share by the end of 1989 (and currently trades for $60.46/share).

Exxon Mobil share price from January 1989 to January 1991

Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com

Full Disclosure: Natalie Pace does not own stock or positions in any company mentioned in this article.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on FoxNews, CNBC, ABC TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/Natalie-Pace/416616285568, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.   Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Oil Spill Stock Scams.

—Don’t Get Cleaned Out by False Cleanup Claims. SEC.gov and FINRA.org Investor Alert.

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico poses more than an environmental and economic threat to the region. It also poses a financial threat to investors in the form of scams promising financial gains from investments in companies that claim to be involved in cleanup operations.

Millions of dollars are being spent daily on short-term cleanup of the spill, which began in April 2010 with a blowout at an oil-drilling platform off the coast of Louisiana. The cost of long-term remediation remains unknown given the uncertainty about the extent of damage to the environment, the fishing industry and tourism.

The staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission and FINRA are issuing this alert to warn investors about potential scams that exploit the Gulf oil spill and related cleanup efforts.  While some of the companies touting their role in the cleanup may be legitimate, others could be bogus operations that are only looking to clean out unsuspecting investors.

In a recent action, on May 25, the SEC suspended trading in shares of ACT Clean Technologies Inc., of Huntington Beach, Calif. The Commission took this action because of questions about the accuracy and adequacy of publicly disseminated information concerning, among other things: (1) British Petroleum's purported expression of interest in using a so-called oil fluidizer technology purportedly licensed to ACT's wholly-owned subsidiary for use in cleanup operations in the Gulf of Mexico; and (2) the purported results of field tests finding that the oil fluidizers are effective for use in cleanup efforts in the Gulf of Mexico.

Spotting Potential Oil Spill Stock Scams
Some companies may issue press releases, or send unsolicited faxes or spam emails that might include:

  • Claims to have products or technologies that are effective in remediating oil spills or restoring the eco-system
  • Mention of contracts or expected contracts with BP, formerly British Petroleum, that will aid the cleanup effort
  • Claims that the company is providing technical assistance or expertise to BP or to U.S. government agencies such as the Coast Guard or the Environmental Protection Agency
  • Predictions of rapid, exponential sales growth
  • Pressure to invest immediately

How to Avoid Getting Scammed
Here are some tips to avoid potential scams:

  • Investigate before you invest. Never rely solely on information contained in an unsolicited fax, email, text message or tweet—or in a blog post or online thread. It's easy for companies or their promoters to make glorified claims about product effectiveness, lucrative contracts, or the company’s revenues, profits or future stock price.

  • Find out who sent the message. Many companies and individuals that tout stocks are paid to do so by the company being touted.  Examine the fine print for any statements indicating payments in cash or in stock for issuing the report or message.

  • Find out where the stock trades. Most unsolicited fax and spam recommendations involve stocks that do not meet the listing requirements of the major stock exchanges.  Instead, they usually are quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board or in the Pink Sheets, which do not impose minimum qualitative standards.  Many of the securities quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board or in the Pink Sheets trade infrequently, which can make it difficult to sell your shares.  When shares on the OTC Bulletin Board or in the Pink Sheets do trade, they may move up or down in price very rapidly.

  • Read a company’s SEC filings.  Most public companies file quarterly and annual reports with the SEC.  Check the SEC’s EDGAR database to find out if the company is filing reports to the SEC, and read them.  Be aware that registering securities and filing reports with the SEC does not mean the company will be a good investment.

  • Exercise some skepticism. Scammers are very adept at making their pitches appear real, including the use of slick videos and websites. Be extremely wary of any pitch that suggests immediate pay-offs, especially if the investment involves a start-up company or a product or service that is still in development.

If you’re suspicious about an offer or if you think the claims might be exaggerated or misleading, please contact us:
SEC Office of Investor Education and Advocacy
FINRA Complaint Center

Additional Resources
http://www.sec.gov/answers/hurricane.htm
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/suspensions/2010/34-62166.pdf
http://www.sec.gov/answers/pumpdump.htm
http://www.finra.org/Investors/ProtectYourself/AvoidInvestmentFraud/
http://www.sec.gov/investor/alerts/oil.htm

To receive the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information sign up for Investor News.

 

About FINRA:
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately 643,000 registered securities representatives.

 

FINRA believes investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the media and public forums, we help investors build their financial knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.


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Father’s Day.

by Staff.

No more cheap, last minute, striped ties!

Dear Dad,

Thi$ year, in$tead of $ending you a la$t-minute bargain basement tie, I $plurged on a pre-meditated, Iron Man II $hirt in$tead. Don’t worry. The kid$ and I will $urvive $omehow. Though $ummer vacation may have to be barbecue$ in the backyard (unle$$ Chri$tma$ come$ a little early – hint hint)…

With Love,

Your very loving (and broke)
Daughter

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

Dear Daughter,

You kNOw how much I appreciate receiving a NOte from you on Father’s Day, and to have that NOte accompanied by a t-shirt (that I would NOt be caught dead in and don’t even think of burying me in it), well there are NO words to express just how hoNOred I feel.

I’ve got a big barbecue pit in the backyard and though your mom and I are NOtoriously lazy about cooking NOw that you kids all have families of your own, I would NOt hesitate to throw a few shrimps on the Barbie while talking in an Aussie accent so that we can all pretend to be vacationing in Australia.

With Love,

Your Very Loving (and retired on a fixed income)
Dad

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

This year if you want to honor Dad with a gift he really wants, check out the survey on the home page at NataliePace.com. Dad: Vote so we know what to get!

Mom: Note that massage and pampering usually $cores in the top $lot in the $urvey. Don’t undere$timate the gift of your love, affection and foot rub$!


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Central Bank Independence.

by Dr. Gary S. Becker.

Governments that control central banks have often used their power to increase the money supply and create inflation. A growth of the money supply increases the revenue collected by the government through an inflation-imposed tax on the holders of money.

These and other abuses of governmental power over central banks helped create the intellectual support for independent central banks. During the past several decades several central banks, such as the Mexico central bank, have become more independent of their government.

I have little doubt that central banks should have considerable independence. Yet complete central bank independence from politicians does not seem desirable, since banks also can abuse their powers. At times they can be tone deaf to what is happening in the economy, and at other times they are too much under control of the private banks that they regulate.

An analogy is often drawn between an independent judiciary and an independent central bank. Just as an independent judiciary often prevents legislatures and heads of governments from abusing their power to formulate and interpret laws, so an independent central bank is supposed to prevent governments from inflating the money supply, and in other ways creating monetary mischief. Yet the analogy between central banks and the judiciary is incomplete and not perfect. If the Supreme Court gives an unpopular opinion, such as its recent decision on the unconstitutionality of bans on spending by corporations during elections, that does not directly reflect on the governing policies of the President or Congress. Indeed, President Obama has openly criticized the opinion and clearly expressed his opposition. On the other hand, when central bank policies help create inflation or unemployment, the governing party will be blamed because the electorate cannot distinguish the effects of central bank behavior from the effects of presidential and legislative decisions.

Milton Friedman in "Should there be an Independent Monetary Authority" (1962) and elsewhere argued against complete independence of the Fed and other central banks because that would give too much power to the top bank officials. He also opposed making a central bank subservient to political leaders because that could lead these leaders to misuse the bank’s powers in order to promote their short–term political gain. His solution was a monetary rule, such as a fixed growth rate in the money supply. Such a rule would make many important central bank decisions completely automatic, and independent of the desires of both central bank heads and government officials. Taylor-type interest rate rules that have greatly influenced some central banks are generalizations of Friedman’s rule on money supply growth that are linked to inflation and the growth of GDP. Taylor-type rules also can operate automatically, and could be largely independent of both central bankers and politicians.

Yet even if a central bank followed a rigid rule to determine its interest rate and money supply policies, it would be necessary to periodically evaluate how well the rule was working. And since central banks are unlikely to continue to follow a fixed rule in the face of a financial crisis, evaluations of its discretionary decisions are also necessary. While the bank should provide its own evaluations, these would tend to be biased toward justification of what it had done.

This is why I support substantial but not complete independence of central banks from legislative and executive oversight.  Such oversight can force central banks heads to justify what they did in a public and open arena. The need to provide regular reports on its behavior to legislative committees would bring out mistakes made by the central bank. It would also induce central bankers to take more careful decisions since they would anticipate having to justify what they did in a public forum.

The US approach to the Fed makes a reasonable compromise between independence and oversight. The President appoints, subject to Senate approval, all seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve for 14-year terms. Neither the President nor the Senate can remove any member prior to the expiration of their terms because of disagreements with bank policies. The President chooses, subject also to Senate approval, the Chairman of the Board, the most powerful position on the Board, from among the sitting Governors. The chairman serves for four years and can be reappointed. The chairman must report twice a year to Congress on the Fed’s policies, and he is asked to testify on other occasions before Congressional committees. He also collaborates with the Treasury on various occasions, as during the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Some critics believe the Fed has too much independence from Congress and the President. Following this line of criticism, Representative Ron Paul of Texas in 2009 introduced a bill that would provide for greater Congressional oversight of the Fed. Others believe that the Fed and other central banks have too cozy a relation with governments, and that political pressures excessively influence central bankers to conform to short-term political wishes.

The best way to help meet both objections is to make public all the Fed’s decisions (and that of other central banks), with no more than a short lag. Rather than being an asset, central bank secrecy is a handicap to businessmen and consumers who make investment and other decisions that are affected greatly by what the bank does.  To maximize public information, the central bank, whenever feasible, should follow known interest rate and money supply rules that are clearly related to the rate of inflation and the degree of slack in the economy.

Under these conditions, present laws on the length of the chairman’s term and that of the other members of the Fed’s Governing Board, and the laws requiring periodic reports of the chairman before Congress, would be effective. A system that has the Fed following rules that govern its policy decisions, combined with some discretionary authority in crises, and also with some congressional oversight would provide a reasonable mixture of central bank independence and control by Congress.

 

About Gary Becker:
Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.

 

To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his website and blog.

.


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Safe and Strong.

by Natalie Pace.

You could have earned 20% gains with a Recession-Proof Plan in 2009. Learn how.

In 2009, you could have kept half safe and still earned 20% gains (20 cents on every dollar invested). This may sound hard to believe because all you hear on the news is recession, unemployment and oil spill. But the NASDAQ outperformed gold, 40% to 26%, high yield bonds had a field day, with gains of 46% and Australia was a rock star, performing at 71% returns in the Asia Pacific, excluding Japan, fund category. Wow. Those are a lot of gains being flushed down the drain of the daily headline drama that embroils most Americans.

Easy-as-a-Pie-Chart Does It
Now, you might be thinking, "Well who knew? And how can I get onboard before all of this happens, when I was late to the real estate game and got burned, and was late to the DOT COM game and got burned there, too?" Uh. Well, this easy strategy that works in bull and bear markets is not found in headlines and is not found on the lips of most brokers. Chances are that one or both are informing your investment strategy, so it was easy for you to get burned. However, it is just as easy for you to get smart, and I encourage you to do just that (and bring your friends and family along, too).

For the average investor, you need a plan that works in bull and bear markets. You do NOT need to be obsessing day-to-day over the monster tennis match that is going on between hedge funds right now. (And yes, that is the source of the extreme volatility.) Better to get enough safe, get the bailouts out of your portfolio, add hot industries and annually rebalance so that you can capture profits. The good news about this is that you are also taking ownership of the best companies in the world, while refusing to have your money routed (without your knowledge really) to the bailouts.

You can read about these strategies in You Vs. Wall Street. Or you can spend three days with me in Santa Monica at one of my Get Rich and Enrich Retreats where you will set up a blueprint of investing that works for the rest of your life. There are only three seats available at the July 23-25, 2010 retreat, so if you want to be one of the lucky twelve, call 866-476-7442 now to reserve your seat.

Stock Market Returns Over the Last 30 Years

The truth is that if you invest 10% of your take home, your nest egg will be worth more than you earn in salary, in just seven years. In 25 years, your nest egg can earn more every year in income than you do, and you can quit your job if you wish! That is based on a 10% annual return (which is what stocks did over the last 30 years). If your returns are 20%, then your nest egg is worth more than your salary in six years, and it earns more annually than you do in just 14 years. That’s the power of compounding. (FYI: Some retreat attendees, like Rita Starnes, earned 39% gains last year!)

20% Nest Egg Returns Add Up Fast!

Year

Starting Amount (based on adding $10,000 annually)

20% Gains

Total

1.

$10,000

$2,000

$12,000

2.

$22,000

$4,400

$26,400

3.

$36,400

$7,280

$43,680

4.

$53,680

$10,736

$64,416

5.

$74,416

$14,883.20

$89,299.20

6.

$99,299.20

$19,859.84

$119,159.04

7.

$129,159.04

$25,831.81

$154,990.82

8.

$164,990.82

$35,000

$197,989.02

9.

$207,989.02

$41,500

$249,586.82

10.

$259,586.82

$51,000

$311,504.19

11.

$321,504.19

$64,300

$385,805.03

12.

$395,805.03

$79,000

$474,966.03

13.

$484,966.03

$97,000

$581,959.24

14.

$591,959.24

$118,391.85

$710,351.09

15.

$720,351.09

$144,000

$864,421.31

16.

$874,421.31

$174,884.26

$1,049,305.57


Based upon depositing $10,000 annually (10% of $100,000 take home salary)

© 2010 NataliePace.com

Notice that if you are earning $100,000 annually, you could be worth more than a million in just 16 years. And this is a safe plan that works in bull and bear markets, which means that you can spend your time earning a living and enjoying your family instead of obsessing about your investments losing value and how you’re going to make ends meet. (If you earn less than $100,000, your money compounds in the same ratio, just with a lower principle.)

So, here’s what a Recession-Proofed Nest Egg Looks like…

And here are the returns for each of those slices of the pie in 2009.

Industry/Fund

Returns for 2009

Australia/New Zealand

71%

Gold

26%

Clean Energy

22%

Technology

62%

Small Cap Growth

35%

Small Cap Value

31%

Mid Cap Growth

39%

Mid Cap Value

35%

Large Cap Growth

36%

Large Cap Value

24%

Annual REBALANCING:
After you set your nest egg up right, each year, you simply:

  1. Draw a pie chart of what you should have, making sure you have enough safe.
  2. See if you want to change your four Hot Industries (the four at the top).
  3. See if there is anything you want to avoid. (This year, most of the value stocks are heavy into financials. I’d underweight that.)
  4. Make what you have look like what you should have (buying and selling to do that)

To your fiscal health!

If you’d like to learn what industries I think are hot, join me on my 3-teleconference series on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. The calls are scheduled for 3 consecutive Tuesday nights at 6:00 p.m. PT, starting on June 22, 2010. The call-in number is: (347) 215-7305.

Bring your questions. Bring a friend. Bring a boyfriend. Bring 5 boyfriends. Bring your mom!

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on FoxNews, CNBC, ABC TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million dollars for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/Natalie-Pace/416616285568, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

 

Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

 

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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10 Golden Rules of Investing.

by Natalie Pace.

  1. Tithe to yourself first.
  2. Keep a percent equal to your age SAFE.
  3. Diversify your stock holdings.
  4. Diversify your assets.
  5. Never loan money to relatives or friends.
  6. Startups are fun or charity – but not nest egg investments.
  7. Never let relatives or friends manage or invest your money.
  8. Underweight distressed industries and overweight hot industries.
  9. Rebalance at least once a year.
  10. Trust no one. Verify everything.

And Here’s Why, How, When, Where, etc.

  1. Tithe to yourself first. Your 401K, IRA, Health Savings Account and other "retirement" plans are protected from the claims of people whom you owe money to. (That’s how OJ Simpson kept from paying the Goldman Family when they won their $33 million dollar settlement against him.) So many people are concerned with paying down debt, when equal concern should be given to covering your assets. The people you owe money to are not going to take up a collection to keep you housed and fed if you lose your job, so don’t short-change yourself. You have an obligation to yourself, in addition to the obligation you have to pay back money you borrowed (and all of the astronomical fees and interest rates that accompany that).

  2. Keep a percent equal to your age SAFE. Read the article, "What’s Safe?" in the June 2010 ezine for more details. During troubled times and recessions and/or if you’re a Nervous Nellie, overweight an additional 10-20% safe.

  3. Diversify your stock holdings. Read You Vs. Wall Street, particularly page 92, to see how you can get rich and enrich the world, while employing easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies that work in bull and bear markets. Select just 10 diversified funds and you can easily see and capture your gains each year. Be sure to trim out the Bailouts and add in the Hot Industries to maximize your returns! Yes. You’ll learn how to do this in You Vs. Wall Street, but you can also come to a 3-day Get Rich and Enrich Retreat to set your investing blueprint up for life.

  4. Diversify your assets. Be an and person. Own your own home and stocks and bonds and a little gold and then start thinking about other low maintenance, low risk assets. The truth of returns is that when real estate is in favor, stocks might perform more moderately, and when stocks and real estate are out of favor, gold scores. Over time, the returns are more steady and reliable, meaning that when you employ a sound, diversified strategy, you can rest easy through the storms and traumas of the moment, while your nest egg grows.
  5. Never loan money to relatives or friends. Read the "Don’t Be Famous and Bankrupt" chapter from You Vs. Wall Street for details. You can give money to a relative or a friend. You can spend your fun or education money on a relative or friend’s startup business. (This can’t be an investment because most startup businesses fail and your nest egg should be tried and true, low risk/low maintenance holdings.) You don’t want to be the bank of the family and you certainly aren’t evaluating these "loans" based upon merit or the probability that the loan will be repaid. Look at your spending in the harsh light of reality. It might be charity (so give the money). It might be fun or educational (so spend the money, if you wish). But it’s not a loan or an investment that will pay you back, so don’t loan the money with that kind of expectation attached (it will only produce stomach acid and ill will).

  6. Startups are fun or charity – but not nest egg investments. If you are an actor/waiter or a singer/secretary or an author/executive, you might wish to spend every last penny of your time and fun and education money on your CDs, self-published books or actor reels. However, at the same time, be sure that you are also putting 10% of your take home pay into a 401K, IRA, Health savings Account or other Buy My Own Island Fund. Within seven years, you’ll have more money in your account than you earn, and within 25 years, your assets will earn more each year than you do. That means a lot more dollars and sense (and time) to spend on those beloved art projects!

  7. Never let relatives or friends manage or invest your money. According to a 2006 FINRA.org study on investment fraud, 70 percent of victims made an investment based primarily on advice from a relative or friend. Interview your money managers as if your life depends upon it because your lifestyle does.

  8. Underweight distressed industries and overweight hot industries. Doing this last year meant that you could have kept almost half of your nest egg safe (earning 3% in Treasury Bills and FDIC insured saving accounts) and still made a 20% return on investment! AIG, GM, Bank of America and Citigroup were all part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, meaning 13% of the 30 components were bailed out. Not surprisingly, the former leading blue chip index (now the bailout index) earned less than half as much as NASDAQ in 2009, with gains of 15%, compared to NASDAQ’s 40%. The Dow is still down 22% from January of 2008, while NASDAQ is only off 14%. And one of the top performing industry in 2009 was information technology, earning over 60 cents on the dollar! Another hot pick (featured in the NataliePace.com ezine) was Australia, which led the Pacific Asia funds, excluding Japan, to score returns of 71 cents on the dollar!

  9. Rebalance at least once a year. If you rebalanced at the beginning of 2008, overweighting 20% safe because of the recession, your maximum losses would have been limited to just 15% if you were 50, even at the lowest point, when most people lost half of their holdings. At the same time, you would have captured gains of almost 60 cents on the dollar in clean energy, which was the top performing asset class of 2007. With that strategy, your nest egg would have been worth more in 2008, rather than less (like most people experienced). In 2009, NASDAQ earned more than gold, at 40% compared to 26%, respectively. With the markets down 2-3% (as of May 31, 2010), you can see why rebalancing and capturing those annual gains is critical to a growing nest egg!

  10. Trust no one. Verify everything. Your bank: Bailed out. Some brokerages: Bankrupt. Others: bailed out. The "experts" failed, with few exceptions. Stocks over the last decade have lost money for buy and hold investors. Investors who employed my easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies and annually rebalancing (which are outlined in You Vs. Wall Street) are much richer today than they were 10 years ago. I don’t have any initials behind my name, though I have been doing what I do successfully through bull and bear markets for 12 years. Those with the credentials busted out, which means that the more "experience" a money manager has, the worse the performance was, on average. The only experience that counts these days is a PhD is in results. For help verifying the facts that matter, read, "Brokers are Salesmen, Not Surgeons" in You Vs. Wall Street and check out Nilo Bolden’s video blog on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on FoxNews, CNBC, ABC TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/Natalie-Pace/416616285568, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

 

Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

 

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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What’s Safe?

by Natalie Pace.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped almost 7500 points in the last three years. Mortgage fraud is on the rise. The Federal Trade Commission, Federal Bureau of Investigation, state securities regulators and other experts have estimated that investment fraud in the U.S. ranges from $10-$40 billion a year. Clearly, getting your money safe is your primary job these days.

You cannot turn on the television without hearing a brokerage or an insurance company (many of which really shouldn’t be in business any more) telling you what to do with your money. As if they are still qualified to do that! Fortunately, it’s your money and you have a choice of who to trust and what to invest in. If you want to keep a beautiful bottom line, you’re going to have to discern between a good ad and a good strategy.

The one thing that you need to be very careful of is having someone convince you to take on extra risk for the possibility of earning a few extra percentage points. The point of "safe" is SAFE, not high yield! (You want to get the returns out of the percentage of your portfolio that is "at risk.") The safe part of your assets has the primary responsibility to not decline in value – even in a recession. And the cool thing is that in 2009, even if you kept almost half safe (really safe, just earning 3% in Treasury Bills and FDIC insured money markets), you could have still racked up 20% total gains with the solid, easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategy that is outlined in the pages of You Vs. Wall Street.

Check out what Nilo Bolden says about keeping her assets safe, in the video blog of May 29, 2010.

What’s the Safest?
Did you know that 140 banks failed in 2009 and 78 have failed so far this year (as of June 1, 2010)? Did you know that the Reserve Primary money market fund broke the buck in September of 2008, meaning that money market investors could not access their money? Sure The Reserve paid most of the money back, but the payments have been made in six installments over the last two years and are only 98.6% paid. So, what are the most protected areas for your money?

  1. FDIC insured savings accounts and checking accounts.
  2. Government Backed Treasuries in Stable Governments.

What are Relatively Safe Places for your Money?
Let’s face it. If you have more than a quarter of a million dollars in paper assets, it’s time to start diversifying. Below are a few other areas for your money that are relatively safe – provided you do your homework, and make sure that all of your costs to carry are covered and you still have some cushion and a decent return.

  1. Bonds in stable companies with a high rating and not too much debt. (Check all three criteria by constructing a Stock Report Card on the company.) Ideally these companies would also be in an industry that looks bright in the years to come. (You wouldn’t want a bond in the typewriter industry when computers were invented.) If you are buying new bonds, you need to understand the relationship between rising interest rates and bond value before you make your purchase, and should consider the benefits of buying a short-term bond over a long-term.

  2. Revenue bonds backed by the revenue of basic needs in stable cities. Bond veteran Muriel Siebert suggested investors might check out water revenue bonds because most people pay their water bill, even in a recession! Having said that, I doubt that I’d want to own the water bond in a city where all of the workers were just laid off and everyone was looking to relocate to another city for work.

  3. Your own home. It’s important to realize that your own home is illiquid (takes awhile to sell and there is no guarantee that it will sell in the future) and has a cost to carry. Having said that, the interest (in the U.S.) is tax deductible, and since this typically amounts to most of your monthly payment, you’re getting an outstanding tax write-off that you get to live in! Make sure that you are buying something you can afford to live in for the next five years, easily -- including maintenance, insurance, upkeep, wear and tear, etc. (The magic ratio is that all of your basic needs should amount to less than 50% of your take home pay. Read chapter 8, "The Billionaire Game", of You Vs. Wall Street for more details.)

  4. Cash-positive, recession-proof, hard assets. From income property, to car washes to coin-operated washing machines, add up all of the costs to carry, including insurance, taxes, maintenance, upkeep (management fees if it’s rental property), wear and tear and even potential loss due to theft or fire, etc. Then take a look at the revenue. If the revenue is 25% higher than all of your costs and this is an income stream that does well in a recession, then odds are in your favor that you’ve found a good, hard asset. I say 25% because you want a healthy cushion during the recession, in case hard times continue and the value of the asset drops.

  5. Gold stock and/or coins. Gold wasn’t the top earner in 2009 (NASDAQ was), but it is definitely in favor, ringing up 26% gains last year. Gold is hot now, but it was the worst performer for the last 30 years, scoring below Treasury Bills for a return of only 2.33% between 1979 and 2009. You don’t want to be too overloaded in gold that you’ll have trouble trimming back later, when other assets become more desirable again.

Be wary of…

  1. Yield that is much higher than the rest of the market. Indymac was paying 5% on their Certificates of Deposit the week that the FDIC seized the bank. The Reserve Primary money market fund was paying above the competition as well, before they "broke the buck." You don’t want to have to file a form or wait to have access to your own money.

  2. Municipal Bonds. There are a substantial number of national, state and local governments that are over-leveraged, without a sustainable plan to get the budget under control. These bonds are not nearly as safe as they have been traditionally.

  3. "Guaranteed" annuities. Substantial taxes and charges may apply if you withdraw your money early. Further, while the annuity is guaranteed by the insurance company, there is no guarantee that the insurance company is going to be around for the life of the policy. When AIG imploded, there would have been a lot of bankrupt annuity plans if the government didn’t step in with a bailout. There is no insurance, like the FDIC, for investments. So, be sure to check out the health of the insurance company before choosing an annuity, and understand that ultimately, there is no guarantee on any investment – even annuities.

  4. Your Pension. Most municipalities and private corporations that provide defined-benefit pension and health plans are not in a position to pay the bill in full. We’ve seen corporation after corporation, especially under the umbrella of Chapter 11, make buy-out offers to their pension holders, many times for much less than the former employee was counting on. And with Baby Boomers retiring, this has the potential to get worse. Can you cut a deal now with your pension provider to roll the assets into a 401K and/or IRA? It’s worth checking into. Don’t assume that the corporation or municipality can manage your assets better than you can. Too many have already proven that’s not the case.

  5. Bond Funds. If the safe portion of your 401K, IRA, etc. are in bond funds, be aware that once interest rates start to rise, the value of your bond fund will go down. That means this is not the safest area for your money going forward.

What is not safe?

  1. Going all in on anything. Don’t get spooked into putting all your faith in any one asset. Blindly investing in commodities (particularly gold) is no better than chasing real estate gains in 2005 or DOT COM fever in 2000. Commodities have seen periods of drought, just like any other asset class.

  2. Avoid areas of high fraud risk. According to the Mortgage Asset Research Institute, mortgage fraud is rampant in the U.S. The 10 worst offending states, are, in order: Florida, New York, California, Arizona, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, Georgia, Illinois, and Virginia. If you are in trouble with your mortgage, contact Hope Now. Do not give anyone money or access to your deed before checking the fine print and the background of the person making the promises to you. Hope Now’s toll-free number is: 888.995.HOPE.

  3. New Banks, insurance companies, money managers, etc. that were founded less than four years ago. You might think that a new bank, insurance company and/or money manager would have a competitive edge in the world of bailouts, and they do. The problem is that the visionary companies are mixed in with scam artists. Those aggressive salesmen who were selling mortgages to anyone with a pulse in 2006 are now trying to modify loans, sell stocks and/or flip houses. Blind faith is never a good strategy – but especially not now when everyone is scrambling to scoop up as many sales as possible.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on FoxNews, CNBC, ABC TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/Natalie-Pace/416616285568, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

 

Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

 

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Find Alignment Not Balance.

by Alvin Tam.

My wife and I own and operate a yoga-fitness studio called Barefoot Sanctuary that operates out of the largest Whole Foods Market in Las Vegas. We are very lucky to partner and create a community studio space with them because we also have the opportunity to introduce very unique courses into the schedule that we wouldn’t be able to do at other studios. One of those classes is my Handstand Class.

You wouldn’t think that spending an hour on your hands would be an enticing fitness offering, but it’s become quite popular. I’ve had people from all walks, none of them acrobats, come and learn the art of inversion and staying on your hands.

Perhaps the growing success of the class is due to the benefit of getting blood to your head, or the feeling of increasing strength in your shoulders and back but I think the real draw is because it teaches you the actual meaning of finding balance in your life.

Finding balance is a common goal for anyone who is too stressed, too overworked, too tired, and too busy. There are many books and speakers who talk about how to find balance in your life and offer a multitude of tools to do so. Some work and some don’t, but the one commonality of all these tools is that they are all metaphors. They are ideas that you apply to your life by using analogies, symbols, and concepts.

When you learn to do a handstand, however, you don’t deal in concepts or metaphors. You either achieve a balanced state or you don’t. And when you don’t, you fall over. The feedback loop is instantaneous.

When I begin teaching handstands to someone who has never tried it before, I explain that learning to do handstands is not about finding balance, which kind of surprises most people. Learning to do handstands is actually about creating proper alignment.

Think of your body as being divided into three blocks. Imagine that the first block runs from your fingers to your shoulders, the second from your shoulders to your hips, and the last block from your hips to your toes. When you’re inverted in a handstand, your job is to align the blocks on top of each other.

Pretend you are five again and you are playing with a set of Lego blocks. If you put one block on top of the other but put it on the corner, then set the third block on top, again skewed on the corner, your structure might hold only if you secure it with rubber bands and nails. In other words, you’re able to build a tower but it requires additional energy and resources to make it stay.

Another note about balance - you can balance anything, regardless of its shape. Finding balance is really about finding the center of gravity of an object and manuveuring it so that you place its center of gravity directly over its contact point on the ground. If you’re not sure what I’m talking about, try to recall images of acrobats at a circus balancing spinning plates, chairs, or even other people. They are able to balance the object even if it is shaped unusually. (I’ve balanced an unfolded six-foot step ladder, a bicycle, chairs, and people on my chin.)

The lesson is that you can find balance in anything, but that doesn’t mean you want to. What you want to do, especially in proper handstand technique, is to align the body so that balance comes naturally and almost without effort. Then you are using your structure and alignment to maintain your position while using very little energy. You are strong and efficient.

In other words, learning to do a proper handstand is about aligning the three blocks by making sure that your legs are directly over your hips, your hips directly over your chest, your chest directly over your shoulders and your shoulders directly over your hands. It sounds simplistic and it is. It’s simple, but not easy.

It’s not easy at first because aligning all these body parts requires subtle contractions of muscles that you rarely use and stretching of other ligaments that you hardly ever stretch. Most people come into the class with enough strength to hold themselves upside down, but lack the subtle strength and flexibility to position their body in a straight vertical line.

When you finally achieve proper alignment, then finding balance is not really an issue. Since gravity works only in one direction, and if your body blocks are directly on top of each other, then your handstand will be balanced. It can’t and won’t go anywhere. For example, try to balance three wooden blocks when they’re stacked exactly on top of each other. There’s nothing to balance because the alignment makes it balanced.

So, back to the metaphor of life and the issue of finding balance. My suggestion is to stop finding balance in your life and to begin creating alignment instead. Just like the crazy circus acrobats, you can find balance even if your life is a whirlwind with areas that are well over-extended and others that are completely ignored. You can find balance in an out-of-balance lifestyle - it’s just that you’re going to have a work a lot harder to keep it there.

When you create alignment in your life, you begin by identifying your values. Once you know what your values are, you line up three things, just like your body: your thoughts, your actions, and your words.

Having a set of defined values is like gravity to the handstand - you have to know how to position your body relative to the force of gravity. Once you have identified your values, you now also know how to think, act, and speak to align with those values.

Again, the process is simple, but not easy. If you have a life that is chaotic and out of control, then evaluate your ability to follow through with what you say, do, or think. Maybe you don’t fulfill commitments, which breaks your alignment, and forces you to be out of balance. Maybe you smile outwardly at people and cuss inwardly at their incompetence.

Perhaps you do act with integrity but your life is still out of balance. Then consider if your values are yours truly, and if they are reflective of who you are now. Contemplate whether or not you are still living a life based on borrowed values from parents, social circles, or religion.

For example, one of my values is to help people. I remember writing this down on a piece of paper in grade four when we were asked what we wanted to do when we grew up. Since this is one of my core values, I make sure that my thoughts, actions, and words reflect this mission, which is why we have a yoga-fitness studio and I write on personal growth.

So you might not ever come to my handstand class or even try one on your own. I do recommend that you meditate on your values and evaluate your follow through. If you are aligned, then you end up being able to take on more and more work without exhausting yourself or working inefficiently. You experience abundant energy, daily passion for your life - and a sense of balance.

Las Vegas Locals! Join Natalie Pace at her Borders Town Square workshop on June 19th at 2:00 p.m., and receive a chance to win a month at Alvin's Barefoot Sanctuary studio! Other giveaways include: dinner for 2 at Canaletto, tickets to Phantom, a seat at an upcoming NataliePace Get Rich and Enrich Retreat, appetizer cards from California Pizza Kitchen (first 25) and a gift from Sephora (first 25). For directions and additional information, go to the NataliePace.com calendar.

 

About Alvin Tam
Alvin Tam is the founder of Soul Acrobats®, an inspirational products company and Acrofit™, an acrobatic fitness system. He has over 15 years of experience as a circus artist, stuntman, dancer, actor, and coach and has performed for Cirque du Soleil, Notre Dame de Paris, and appeared on CSI. Alvin’s passion is to inspire you to achieve your impossible.

Products
VISIT: http://www.soulacrobats.com/products-page/

  • Book: The Art of Impossible
  • DVD: The Acrofit System Level 1, Expressive Yoga for the Soul

 


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Dating is Like the Stock Market.

by Jodi Seidler.

The True Cost of a Date.

In the world of dating over the years, I have noticed many things, and have drawn many conclusions…  I have learned that when you decide to look for love again, feeling the trepidations of the dating market, you can begin by carefully placing your toe in the muddy dating waters. You can test out the landscape by going out with someone ‘nice’, something safe, like Microsoft or General Electric.

You’ll build your dating confidence as you see how what you have chosen performs. You can grow your portfolio wisdom, with experience of dating different types, until you develop more confidence and a sense of who and what fits your lifestyle. Too many people jump in and get hooked on the rush of adrenalin they feel from the wrong type of person, and they run out of steam to find the right one. Take some time and get in touch with your dating investment profile, and see what you can afford to invest emotionally, and be realistic about who you are.

Someone’s stock can rise and fall. Opening the car door for you – up 5 points, texting friends during dinner – down 10. Stocks, like dates, can tank on certain news. In dating, news of an old girlfriend in town, or being seen out with someone else (holding hands) can make your date’s stock tumble. If the news is more severe, there might be no chance of recovery from where you bought in. Take a look at the fallen stocks of Tiger Woods and Jesse James. They may never recover their worth. It’s enough to make you want to quit the market – but don’t…

Earnings are a big deal in the world of stocks and when the quarterly results come out, euphoria or depression is a distinct possibility. The analogy, in the dating world, are birthdays, anniversaries and major holidays (Christmas, Hanukkah). Dating "stocks" can experience wild swings up or down on these events. For example, if the guy forgets his girl’s birthday, even by a day, his stock can zero out to bottom feeder status. On the other hand, if on a particular anniversary, the girlfriend is shocked to see a limo in front of her house about to take her away for the weekend…his stock soars out of control. (But then again, you know this guys!)

And in today’s world, the very best way to begin to date may just be from a friend’s referral. Our friends know us and have a sense of who is right and wrong for us. They certainly have a landscape view of our history and poor choices made.

Putting our faith in friends just may be the best way to find love. Dating a friend’s friend comes with a certain emotional safety that is worth its weight in gold, especially in the beginning of your romantic journey.

And we can all see how high the price of gold has risen over the years.

 

Jodi Seidler is the Creator of: Making Lemonade - A Community for  Single Parents and Hipster Club - A Hip Community.



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Schwab’s Perspective on a Difficult Week.

by Michelle Gibley, Senior Market Analyst, Schwab Center for Financial Research.

May 21, 2010

Stocks plunged roughly 5% on the week in the US on six major themes:
-- The transition from liquidity to solvency and growth concerns in Europe
-- The fate of the largest global growth driver, the Chinese economy
-- The slowdown in the pace of economic growth in the US
-- Government proposals on markets and banks that could slow growth and increase the cost of capital
-- A shift in sentiment toward a flight-to-liquidity and safety from one of risk-seeking
-- Negative technical factors as the S&P 500 falling through the 200-day moving average

After the sigh of relief last week from the $1 trillion Euro-TARP that gave Greece and other troubled nations a less-costly method of accessing funds versus the high interest rates that were being priced into capital markets before the bailout, markets turned their attention to the longer-term implications of the bailout and the realization that the problems that precipitated the euro-area crisis remain.

Market talk centered on the hit to euro-area economic growth that would likely be experienced as governments need to make sharp cuts to spending in order to cut deficits, and as money in stronger nations (namely Germany) is put to more unproductive uses in order to support weaker nations. Additionally, the euro fell to a four-year low versus the dollar as investors believe it is increasingly vulnerable with the ECB’s balance sheet deteriorating in quality by purchasing low-quality debt, and amid the strains of a group of nations that have diverging economic growth and lack of cohesion from 16 different political systems, with some speculation of an eventual break-up in the euro.

News from the euro-area was punctuated with a temporary ban by Germany on naked short-selling—the selling of a security without ownership-of 10 banks and insurers, as well as euro-area government bonds and credit-default swaps, and governmental verbal support for a tax on the financial market sector. The increased pressure on financial institutions was mirrored in the US, as the Senate passed financial regulatory overhaul. Stocks fell as intra-bank lending continued to experience some stresses at the margin and as markets considered the potential for increased cost of capital that could be a consequence of the actions.

Concerns about the potential for a hard landing in China came as local stocks continued to fall and on reports that the property market was experiencing a sharp slowdown after stricter measures were introduced in mid-April. However, most of these themes have been building over the past month, and were not specifically new revelations this week. Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Director of Market and Sector Analysis, Brad Sorensen, CFA discussed these issues in their latest bi-weekly Schwab Market Perspective: Volatility on the Rise.

The rollover in the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which unexpectedly fell 0.1% in April versus a forecast of a 0.2% rise, should not have been particularly surprising, as Liz Ann and Brad have been noting the potential for this to happen as the economy matures to expansion from recovery, and the V-shape recovery at some point is simply unsustainable. However, the rollover in the LEI in combination with a rise in jobless claims, and concerns about the sustainability of growth in both Europe and China led to a shift in sentiment toward safety from risk-seeking.

While sentiment is "touchy-feely," it does influence markets, as confidence and conviction are needed when investing. With the shift, assets that were the highest beta (high volatility relative to the overall market) and most speculative saw the steepest declines. The potential good news is that optimism has been quickly replaced with pessimism, and as sentiment is a contrary indicator, the best market returns typically come when pessimism is elevated. While the most oversold, high beta areas of the market are likely to rebound the most on a short-term bounce, Liz Ann and Brad have been noting a change in leadership this year that favors large cap US markets. Additionally, for tactical investors, Brad has the consumer discretionary and materials sectors rated underperform, as discussed in Schwab Sector Views: Sea Change?, while keeping an outperform on health care and technology.

Liz Ann and Brad note that investors’ mettle is tested the most when uncertainty is high, but panic is not an investment strategy. The best long-term strategy is to make sure you have a diversified portfolio that is appropriate for your level of risk tolerance and time horizon.

See more from Schwab’s experts at www.schwab.com/marketinsight.

Additionally, you can listen back to Liz Ann’s May 25, 2010 webcast: Schwab Town Hall Webcast, Market Review: Recovery and the Reticent Investor, where she provided an hour-long mid-year look at the economic recovery, the likelihood of a market correction, and global investing, along with Associate Editor for Barron’s, Michael Santoli. Go to: www.schwab.com/townhall.

 

Important Disclosures

This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security or pursue a particular investment strategy. The types of securities mentioned herein may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

©2010 Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. All rights reserved. Member SIPC.


Fat Finger and the May 6 Meltdown.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.

10 Critical Lessons.

June 1, 2010

General Stock Market Performance

Monday, 1.2.2008

Monday, 1.2.2009

Monday 1.4.2010

Friday, 5.28.2010

Gains 2-yr, 1-yr & 5 mo.

Dow: 13,044.12

Dow: 9,034.69

Dow: 10,430.69

Dow: 10,136.63

-22% & +12% & -3%

Nasdaq: 2,609.63

Nasdaq: 1,632.21

Nasdaq: 2,294.41

Nasdaq: 2,257.04

-14% & +38% & -2%

S&P: 1,447.16

S&P: 931.80

S&P: 1,115.07

S&P: 1,089.41

-25% & +17% & -2%


Wall Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:

Index

Low

High

Dow Jones Industrial Average

6,547 (3.9.09)

14,164 (10.9.07)

NASDAQ Composite Index

1,114 (10.9.02)

5,060.34 (3.10.00)


Hot News on Cool Stocks Important Data
658% gains on U.S. Gold!
NASDAQ Outscored the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 40% to 15%, in 2009
NASDAQ Outscored Gold in 2009, 40% to 26%
81% of the positions listed in 2008-2010 are in the money. Woo hoo!
Gold Tops stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years… (see below chart)
Real Estate Lost -12.4% in 2009.

Compare those returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills and gold over the last 30 years.

Market Update:

Photo: Stacie Isabella Turk.
(c) Ribbonhead.com.
Stylist: Melody White.
Art Direction: Arlene Hylton-Campbell.

Forget about Fat Tuesday. In centuries to come, people will still be talking about Fat Finger Thursday, the May 6th Meltdown that saw the Dow drop more than a thousand points. While we still don’t know all of the causes (yet), what we do know is that a lot of people ate their stop losses unnecessarily. The markets dropped so far, so fast that most people still aren’t sure what hit them or how much that day cost them. What we do know is that the losses of May 6th were recovered completely less than a week later, by May 12, 2010.

So, what lessons can you learn from this horrific experience to ensure that you are never vulnerable to those kinds of market gyrations going forward?

10 Critical Lessons from the May 6th Meltdown

  1. Stop losses are not a great strategy.
  2. Keep enough safe.
  3. Avoid the bailouts.
  4. Overweight small and medium.
  5. Overweight companies founded after 1980.
  6. West Coast over East Coast.
  7. Innovation over legacy.
  8. Stimulus over Bailout.
  9. Dr. Seussian Economics over Cronyism Economics.
  10. KISS 10 funds.

10 Critical Lessons from the May 6th Meltdown

With Details, details, details….

  1. Stop losses are not a great strategy. On May 5, 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,868. On May 6, 2010, the Dow closed at 10,520. However, mid-day on May 6, the Dow dropped 1000 points, to 9869 – a loss of 9%. (If the Dow had dropped another point, market trading would have been halted.) If your stop loss kicked in, you lost your investment over a temporary, 30-minute market mystery that still has experts puzzled over the cause. What’s a better plan? A better plan. Read Critical Lesson #2.

  2. Keep enough safe. Always keep a percentage equal to your age in your nest egg safe. Add 10-20% more during recessions and times of market turbulence. Using this simple formula, your losses on the worst Dog Days of the Dow (March 9, 2009), when others were down over 50% from the high of 2007, would have been limited to just 15% if you were 50! In the first scenario, you have to work another 20 years before retiring. In the second, your Buy My Own Island Fund is still flourishing.
  3. For more details on setting up a recession-proofed nest egg, read You Vs. Wall Street and my article, "Nest Egg Rebalancing Plan" from the May 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 5.

  4. Avoid the bailouts. You might think this is tricky, but it’s not. With foreclosures on single-family residences and the newest problem area – commercial real estate – at heights never before seen, the financials are not recovering yet (no matter what their earnings reports say). It’s all a slight of hand, bailout, monkey wrenching, duck tape fix that might still fail. What other areas are a problem? Companies founded before 1980, especially those with unions (like airlines, auto manufacturers and municipalities).

  5. Overweight companies founded after 1980. The Information Technology Giants of today, like Google, Apple and more, are not your Dot Com of Y2K. These companies are rip-roaring with revenue, and have no debt and a war chest of cash – totaling more than $26 billion each. Companies that were founded before 1980 thought they could manage retirement plans and health care insurance. Turns out they did a lousy job. And many are carrying the burden of billions in underfunded pensions and other post employment retirement benefits. Combine that with slow growth in a slow economy and you’ve got molasses oozing down a drain.

  6. Overweight small and medium. You can see in the chart of returns at the top of this article that small caps scored 6.5% gains over the last decade, while the Blue Chips (big caps) lost money over that same period. The most recognized and widely held Blue Chip Index had 13% of its companies bailed out (making it the Bailout Index, not the Blue Chip Index). Big caps are stabilizing forces for your portfolio, but I’d rather be anchored with Google, Apple and Australian banks than bailouts and Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs is off 22% since the SEC fraud charge hit the press.

  7. West Coast over East Coast. There’s a lot of noise about the deficits of the state of California, but what is happening in the state is not what is happening in the companies based in California, most of which are rich in revenue, carrying no debt and have a war chest of capital for growth and acquisition. When you think of investing, it pays to think of the companies that are making things you actually want to use – like Google, Apple, Microsoft, Netgear, eBay and more. When you think of the cutting edge products and services of today and tomorrow, chances are you’re looking at a Silicon Valley based business.

  8. Innovation over legacy. Re-read points 3-6. Some companies are leading the R&D charge in making cleaner, greener, more efficient products – from hybrids, to solar energy, to phones, to Internet products. Some companies are using their ties with government to stay alive, even while the products are lagging their industry. I’m not saying that we don’t, as a society, want to keep some companies operating, particularly airlines. But you can do that as a taxpayer. As a shareholder, the goal should be taking ownership of great companies and reaping the gain of doing so. Society’s safety net is set up to help those individuals and corporations that struggle.

  9. Stimulus over Bailout. Yes, the economy is bad. But the general rule is ‘follow the money.’ In this case, I’d follow the stimulus funding, i.e. support those businesses that will lead us out of the recession, not the bailouts (those businesses that almost destroyed our great nation). If you’d like to see where the Recovery Money is being allocated, the Obama Administration has a website showing you just that at Recovery.gov.

  10. Dr. Seussian Economics over Cronyism Economics. Just turn off the TV and follow your nose. You’ll do a lot better. When John Stewart told the joke that he’d have a million dollars today by listening to a certain network’s advice -- if he’d started with $100 million dollars, it wasn’t really much of a joke, considering just how wrong the network called so many of the key stories of the last two years.
  11. Instead: Ask yourself, "What are people really buying?" "What do the Toyota owners really think of their cars?" Today’s headlines can tank the share price in the short term, but over the long haul, it is great products and services that make great companies – not headlines, which tend to be biased and oftentimes, dead wrong.

  12. Keep It Simple Simon. 10 funds. You don’t need dozens of individual stocks in your nest egg. (That’s called babysitting.) You don’t need dozens of different funds in your nest egg. (That’s called high commissions.) Just diversify with 10 funds, keep enough safe and rebalance annually. Yes, it’s like soup. The less you watch it, the more it cooks. For details on this, read You Vs. Wall Street. Better yet, take three days at my Get Rich and Enrich Retreat to learn the easy-as-a-pie chart nest egg strategies that perform great in bull and bear markets. Walk in without a clue (or with a cracked nest egg) and walk out with a plan that works for the rest of your life.

Now back to the Causes of the May 6, 2010 Meltdown
According to the testimony SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro gave to Congress, the so-called "Fat Finger" hasn't been found (yet) although they are not ruling this out as the trigger of the main event. The trigger event is still a mystery. The SEC, FINRA and other government agencies are sifting through over a billion trades on that day. The terrorist theory was mentioned in Chairman Schapiro's testimony, but she says that to-date there are no indications that was the case either. There is a lot of mention about "the most active and sophisticated traders in today’s market structure [who] are not subject to any obligations with respect to the nature of their trading" – code for hedge funds. Lots of intense scrutiny will be on hedge fund managers, and big-rollers who trade under the aegis of broker-dealers. FYI: stop-losses appear to have had a role, as well... but to what extent has yet to be determined, and stop losses are not the "inciting" event.

You can click on Chairman Schapiro’s name to access the full testimony, or go to SEC.gov.

The SEC is also taking public commentary on the proposed Large Trader Recording System. I encourage you to exercise your right to weigh in on the financial reform that is proposed. You can view a video explaining the need for the records and then comment on the SEC site.

Track Record of our Reporting
While the markets are still down significantly since their high in October of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years. 88 positions listed below – 81% -- have delivered impressive gains over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading lower than it was ten years ago! Only twenty of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given the market gyrations of more than 7000 point swings since 2008. FYI: The trend of the Spring Rally is expected to continue until the end of May, and then, if this year tracks the historical trend, the summer doldrums and particularly the Hurricane Season could be hard on the markets.

Remember that the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice a year, not trying to market time.)

5 out of 7 Company of the Year selections more than doubled.  My 2003, 2004 and 2007 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware) and up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), respectively, before we took them off of the list.  2009’s Company of the Year, U.S. Gold, has earned over 800% gains from its low (when we highlighted the company as a buy) as of April 15, 2010 and 55% gains since it was featured as Company of the Year. MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders that year.   So five out of seven Company of the Year selections were superperformers. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.  (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)

Some of my best picks include: U.S. Gold (UXG) +600%, Google (GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in 2008 and 2009 were put options – on the Cooling Off list -- which is why I added options training to my 3-day Get Rich and Green Investing Retreat. Look on the Cooling Off list for details on the incredible gains options investors enjoyed (and the losses that average investors avoided as a result of being alerted to the problem) on Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Toll Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more there.

This stock newsletter was the first to list the following 911 alerts:

  1. 2008 Recession (Get Safe)
  2. Trim back on Faded Blue Chips in 2006
  3. Get out of Dodge (real estate) in 2005
  4. Google at the IPO! (May 2004)
  5. To get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003

Market Movers:
The Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." In the Federal Open Market Committee press release, the committee members state, "Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level."

That is Fed-speak for "We are doing everything to stimulate the economy, which should work eventually, but the situation is still rough, folks." Most of the Feds think that inflation is far enough away that Fed Fund rates will remain exceptionally low for an "extended period." There was one committee member who dissented to the language, and it is noteworthy that at the last two meetings and in the last two press releases, the Feds have included a detailed description of his dissent. I find the language of the last clause to be particularly troubling (highlighted in bold). "Thomas M. Hoenig…believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer run macroeconomic and financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly." An immodest raising of interest rates would be hard to take…

The next FOMC meeting takes place on June 22-23, 2010.

Second Estimate GDP growth rates for 1Q 2010 were 3.0%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. What caused the pullback from the 5.6% growth of the 4th quarter 2009? According to the BEA, "The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in state and local government spending and in residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."

Final Estimate GDP growth rates for 1Q 2010 will be released on June 25, 2010 at 8:30 a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall Street. For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section often.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC Information: Interested in reading the minutes of the April 28, 2010 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov to read!

The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2010-2011 calendar is: June 22-23 (Tuesday-Wednesday), August 10 (Tuesday), September 21 (Tuesday), November 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 14 (Tuesday), January 25-26, 2011 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 15, 2011 (Tuesday), April 26-27, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), June 21-22, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), August 9, 2011 (Tuesday), September 20, 2011 (Tuesday), Nov. 1-2, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), December 13, 2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.).

2. Calendar Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. Be the first to know the dates of the mid-month Hot News on Cool Stocks Update and the publication date of our next ezine. Join me on BlogTalkRadio.com. Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.

Don’t miss the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com. In June and July we will have a series of Tuesday Night Teleconferences on how to protect your investments and prosper in volatile markets. Tuesday Nights at 6:00 p.m. PT. Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace for dates and call-in instructions.

Get call-in and log-in instructions for the next show at: BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. This is a Q&A format, where you can call in or Facebook in your questions. Be sure to write down your most pressing questions now, and become a fan of Natalie Pace on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/pages/Natalie-Pace/416616285568, so that we can interact on Facebook during the show.

3. Survey Results:
Each month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page! This month we want to know what Dad really wants for Father’s Day. Check it out to get your gift-giving right. And Dads, please weigh in so we know what to buy.

4. Euro interest rates: ECB rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement is scheduled for May 20, 2010 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (June 10, 2010 after that.)

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education" money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t have mastery over.

Hot News List (highlighted).  Be sure that you are buying low.
None
(We are heading into the summer doldrums. Plus June has been a negative month on average for the last decade.)

Profit-Taking:
Hoku Corp. (HOKU) +54%
LDK Solar (LDK) +17%
U.S. Gold (UXG) +658%

DELETIONS (Take your profits early and often):
Green Dot (Moved to the Watch List on 5.15.10)

HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS LIST

Company NP owns? Symbol Price when featured

Price

6.1.10

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

American Superconductor

No

AMSC

$30.70

$30.88

$43.73

$8.22

Flat

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should benefit from President Obama’s commitment to build a "a new smart grid to carry electricity from coast to coast." In fact, we know that AMSC is specifically on Obama’s mind, even though investors haven’t caught on yet.

4Q & FY earnings May 13, 2010: Revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 were $87.6 million, a 43 percent increase over $61.2 million in revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Gross margin for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 was 37.8 percent, which compares with 32.6 percent for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Net income of $4.9 million. Revenues for full year fiscal 2009 were $316.0 million, an increase of 73 percent from $182.8 million for full year fiscal 2008. Gross margin for full year fiscal 2009 was 36.4 percent, which compares with a 28.4 percent gross margin for full year fiscal 2008. Net income for full year fiscal 2009 was $16.2 million, compared to a net loss of -$16.6 million in 2008.

Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash at March 31, 2010 were $155.1 million. The company reported backlog as of March 31, 2010 of approximately $588 million. Reuters reported a new $445 million contract with China’s Sinovel on May 17, 2010.

President Obama mentioned American Superconductor by name in his weekly address of Nov. 21, 2009. In the official transcript, it is written: "If we can increase our exports to Asia Pacific nations by just 5%, we can increase the number of American jobs supported by these exports by hundreds of thousands.  This is already happening with businesses like American Superconductor Corporation, an energy technology startup based in Massachusetts that’s been providing wind power and smart grid systems to countries like China, Korea, and India.  By doing so, it’s added more than 100 jobs over the last few years."

AOL

No

AOL

$23.00

$20.92

$27.00

$23.00

-9%

Read "AOL" from Vol. 6, issue 12.

1Q 2010 results showed a decline in advertising and subscription revenue, which prompted voters to pull back on their support. However, according to Chairman & CEO Time Armstrong, "AOL continues to make progress against our long-term objective of becoming an internet growth company. Our results highlight the accomplishment of our first goal in AOL’s turnaround which was to significantly reduce AOL’s cost structure."

To put this in context (and understand why AOL remains on the Hot News List), read the article written at the time of the IPO last December.

Blockbuster

No

BBI

$0.34

$0.33

$1.56

$0.24

Flat

Read "Blockbuster’s Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5.

ENER1

No

HEV

$4.33

$3.75

$7.90

$2.75

-13%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact, high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.

 

1Q 2010 report on May 10, 2010:

 

Net sales were $11 million in the first quarter of 2010 compared to net sales of $8.2 million in the prior year first quarter.  Net loss was $15.3 million in the first quarter of 2010 compared to $7.3 million in the 2009 first quarter.

 

EnerDel has been named as the exclusive battery supplier for the Volvo C30 Pure Electric Vehicle, set for production in 2011 and mass release in 2013.  According to Chairman and CEO Charles Gassenheimer, "We are truly excited about the C30 program, believing it to be a leapfrog product to a second generation electric vehicle design, currently undergoing the most rigorous set of crash-testing and safety systems in the industry."

 

Check out EnerDel’s batteries at their YouTube channel.

Galaxy Resources

RISK: HIGH

(off the boards, thinly traded)

No

GALXF

$1.07

$0.85

$1.92

$1.00

-21%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota" from Vol. 7, issue 2.

Hoku Scientific

Hawaii

RISK: HIGH

Yes

HOKU

$8.03

$2.00

(3.2.09)

$3.08

$14.55

$1.90

-62% &

+54%

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.

On April 29, 2010, Hoku announced it had successfully produced polysilicon at its manufacturing facility in Pocatello, Idaho. HOKU operated the reactors continuously for approximately five days during the final phases of the commissioning procedure. During these live reactor runs, Hoku utilized trichlorosilane purchased from third-party suppliers. This is the same product that the Company plans to use during its initial commercial production runs this year.

 

This is an historic day for Hoku," said Scott Paul, president and chief executive officer of Hoku Corporation. "We have completed the first step in our planned production ramp-up and successfully manufactured our first batches of polysilicon. Importantly, this challenging, month-long commissioning process also allowed us to flex our operations team, and validate our training, systems and procedures. I am extremely proud of our team's accomplishment."

 

Hoku’s annual report is scheduled for June 2010

LDK Solar

GREEN

Yes

LDK

$30.02

$4.94

(3.2.09)

$5.76

$76.75

$3.75

-81% &

+17%

Read the articles, "Green" in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, issue 4.

LDK is benefitting from a 4-star rating from Motley Fool CAPS and lots of press from the same in February.

 

1Q on 5.10.10: revenue was $347.6 million; net income was $7.2 million. LDK Solar ended the first quarter of fiscal 2010 with $347.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and $96.3 million in short-term pledged bank deposits.

"Continued momentum in the solar industry drove results for the first quarter," stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "Our efforts to diversify our business within the module market tracked well in the quarter. We brought crystalline module manufacturing in house and signed several module supply contracts during the first quarter. In our wafer business, we continue to closely monitor demand levels to meet our customers’ needs. In April we achieved annualized wafer capacity of 2.0 GW, maintaining our industry leadership as we continue to represent a significant share of global wafer capacity.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$11.99

$10.86

$73.56

$11.32

-9%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Acquisition of solar developer SunEdison (announced on 10.22.09) should start putting meat on MEMC’s bottom line in 2010. They now enter solar power generation with an A-list company in that field. Recovering after silicon re-pricing completely threw off their profit margins. Better times going forward.

4.29.10 1Q results:

1Q highlights:

- Revenue increases to $438 million
- Solar Energy (SunEdison) revenue of $60.7 million
- GAAP net loss of $9.6 million

Rio Tinto

No

RTP

$44.95

$45.46

$218.15

$30.00

+1%

Gold, copper and other commodities mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly in Australia. Annual general meeting is May 26, 2010 in Melbourne, Victoria. 4:1 stock split took place on April 30, 2010.

Sunpower

No

SPWRA

$24.83

$12.69

$107.00

$18.50

-49%

Read "The Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3.

Sunpower panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used Sunpower panels.

Announced on March 11, 2010 that the company was awarded two grants totaling approximately $1.5 million from the California Solar Initiative Research, Development, Deployment and Demonstration (CSI RD&D) Program.  

 

1Q earnings on 511.10: Revenue for the 2010 first quarter was $347 million, which compares to $212 million in the first quarter of 2009 and $548 million in the fourth quarter of 2009.  The company's Components and Systems segments accounted for 81% and 19% of first-quarter 2010 revenue, respectively.

 

SunPower has more than 550 large public and commercial solar power systems installed or under contract, representing more than 450 megawatts of solar power generation.

 

March 29, 2010: SunPower Corp. acquired SunRay Renewable Energy, a leading European solar power plant developer with offices in Europe and the Middle East.

Suntech Power Holdings

No

STP

$14.26

$9.70

$49.60

$5.09

-32%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer. 2009 Earnings call (webcast) on March 4, 2010.

1Q report on May 10, 2010: Suntech expects total net revenues for the first quarter of 2010 to be in the range of $580 million to $590 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the range of 19% to 20%, compared to previous guidance of 18% to 20%. Final results will be announced on June 3, 2010 before the markets open.

U.S. Gold

Colorado USA

RISK: VERY HIGH

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$.50 (10.20.08)

$2.66 (10.09)

$3.29

$7.04

$.38

-22% &

+658% &

+24%

Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very risky.

According to a statement released on March 1, 2010, U.S. Gold has a great new discovery of silver in their Mexico mine. "Drilling at El Gallo continues to return thick intersections of good grade that start at or near surface. To date, 95% of the holes drilled have encountered significant mineralization! We are extremely pleased with these results. Going forward we will continue with our large exploration program, publish an initial resource estimate during the second quarter and look to complete an preliminary economic analysis by year-end. Also, on March 15th and 16th US Gold will be taking a number of mining analysts to El Gallo in order to highlight what we feel is one of the best silver projects owned by an junior," stated Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO.

Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09.

If you believe in this CEO and company, you’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S. Gold going forward. Gold should be a great hedge against inflation, which is predicted to become an issue once the economy starts to rebound (2010 and forward). Right now, the Feds are still a little concerned about deflation, but inflation could begin on the 12-24 month horizon.

This is an exploration company, not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time.

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) Listen to my feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen on BlogTalkRadio.com. You can review my original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).

Recently Deleted Companies 2008-2010:
Echelon +20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson +10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%, Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08) +40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek (deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1.08 and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1.08 and 12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits 20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On 2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42% on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%. OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%), GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC (+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%) and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%, AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted 4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google +9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%, SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpac +42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19% gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with 50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%. Deleted 5.15.09: SQM with gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09: EMKR with losses of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1 with gains of 11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy with losses of -52-98%. Deleted Smith and Nephew on 8.15.09 with gains of 17% and losses of 28%. Deleted the New Zealand dollar currency ETF by Wisdom Tree with 36% gains on 12.12.09. 12.18.09: Deleted Ener1 with 22% gains and Satcon with 29% gains. Deleted 1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains!

Recently Deleted from the Hot News list:
None

Stocks to Watch
Some of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List.
Read carefully to identify which is which!  

Note that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List. Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company. Never pay retail!

Recent Additions:
Green Dot (added 5.15.10)
Tidewater (added 6.1.10)

Recent Deletions:
Netflix (NFLX) (moved to Cooling Off List on 5.15.10)

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

6.1.10

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Allscripts Misys Healthcare Solutions

No

MDRX

$19.94

$18.64

$22.21

$9.70

Read "Health Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.

Altair Nano-technology

No

ALTI

$1.16

$0.52

$2.94

$0.56

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" Vol. 6, issue 4.

1Q2010 earnings announced on May 6, 2010: For the quarter ended March 31, 2010, Altairnano reported revenues of $1.2 million, up from $0.9 million for the same period in 2009. This increase is the result of a higher level of contract and grant activity with the Office of Naval Research and the Department of Defense compared to 2009 which are expected to continue throughout most of 2010. Operating expenses of $6.4 million for the first quarter of 2010 were down $0.5 million from operating expenses of $6.9 million for the first quarter of 2009. The net loss was $6.1 million, or six cents per share, compared to a net loss of $6.4 million, or seven cents per share, for the first quarter of 2009.

Altairnano's cash and cash equivalents decreased by $5.8 million, from $18.1 million at December 31, 2009 to $12.3 million at March 31, 2010. Altairnano's cash burn rate is about $1.9 million per month.

"We continue to experience an increased level of customer requests for quotes compared to the first half of 2009," said Dr. Terry Copeland, Altairnano's president and CEO. "We are working diligently with these prospective customers to translate this increased sales quote activity into firm orders which will in turn provide us with a larger revenue stream and referenceable customer base."

Was a contender in the lithium ion battery marketplace a few years back, but lost market share, orders and prestige.

Big Lots

No

BIG

$30.28

$35.21

$41.42

$19.49

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6.

Canadian Imperial Bank

RISK: Medium

No

CM

$65.88

$68.00

$108.79

$30.64

Refer to the "Banking on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009; Australia was #2.

Citigroup

RISK: HIGH

No

C

$2.26

$3.91

$5.43

$2.55

One of the troubled, bailed out banks… May 7, 2010 earnings: Citigroup reported net income of $4.4 billion.  The total allowance for loan losses for consumer loans increased to $41.4 billion at the end of the quarter, or 7.8% of consumer loans, up from 6.7% of consumer loans at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009. Consumer non-accrual loans totaled $15.6 billion at March 31, 2010, compared to $18.3 billion at December 31, 2009 and $14.9 billion at March 31, 2009. Citigroup's total assets of $2.0 trillion increased $146 billion from December 31, 2009, primarily from the adoption of SFAS 166/167, as discussed above.

It’s important to remember that we don’t really have a clue how deep and wide the losses at these bailed out banks are. Most of this is still hidden and the Feds are not releasing the info, nor are the banks…

eBay

No

EBAY

$16.80

$21.18

$32.10

$9.91

Etail should perform better than retail in the recession, but eBay is priced higher than I’d want to pay in a vulnerable "jobless" recovery.

Eldorado Gold

No

EGO

$10.56

$17.31

$18.62

$7.65

 

Read "Investing in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9. Annual report on March 18, 2010:

Net income of $102.4 million, down from $164 million in 2008 (-38%). Revenue $361 million for 2009, 25% increase over $288 million in 2008.

"This was a very successful quarter and year for Eldorado," stated Paul Wright. "We had record quarterly production with strong performance from both our Kisladag and Tanjianshan gold mines. And with the successful completion of our acquisition of Sino Gold and the continued development of our projects in Turkey, China and Greece, we are solidifying our position as one of the world's lowest cost gold producers. Our gold sales revenue increased by 29 percent to $358.5 million as we benefited from increased production and gold prices. Looking ahead, we anticipate 2010 production of 550,000 to 600,000 ounces of gold at a cash operating cost of between $385 and $400 per ounce."

First Solar

No

FSLR

$144.76

$108.11

$207.51

$98.71

 

See "Solar Springs Up Again" article in Vol. 5, issue 4.

First Solar joined S&P500 on 10.02.09.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details.

FMC Corp.

No

FMC

$51.36

$59.59

$80.23

$28.53

 

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota," from Vol. 7, issue 2.

FMC is the real winner of the stimulus package because they supply lithium to the battery makers. On the other hand, that is not all that this company manufactures, and sales were off in 2009. Waiting for a better buy-in point.

Ford Motor Company

No

F

$9.65

$11.58

$14.57

$4.71

 

Read "How Cap and Trade Saved Ford" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive, but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler and GM are present here – with one exception. Ford built cars that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest).

Google

No

GOOG

$393.69

$484.22

$629.51

$384.69

See Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu Your Heroes." Be careful not to buy in too high.

1Q 2010 on 4.15.10: Google reported revenues of $6.77 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2010, an increase of 23% compared to the first quarter of 2009. GAAP net income was $1.96 billion, compared to $1.42 billion in the first quarter of 2009.

Cash – As of March 31, 2010, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $26.5 billion. No debt.

On a worldwide basis, Google employed 20,621 full-time employees as of March 31, 2010, up from 19,835 full-time employees as of December 31, 2009.

Green Dot

No

Not available

IPO

IPO

IPO

--

Read "IPO of the Year" from Vol. 7, issue 3. Check with your broker to see if you can be a part of this IPO. It is underwritten by J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Piper Jaffray and UBS. If you cannot participate in the IPO, then you can buy when Green Dot is traded on the public marketplace. No word, yet, on when exactly that will be. This is a "quiet" period for the company, when insiders are not allowed to talk to press.

 

Ay this point, given the volatility of the markets, I’d be tempted to "wait and see" what the general marketplace does before buying in. The Santa Rally has brought coal in the stockings of investors for too many years this past decade for me to have faith in this 2nd year of a Presidential term (typically the worst performing year of the cycle).

Orocobre

No

OROCF

$1.70

$1.87

$2.72

$0.99

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota" from Vol. 7, issue 2.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF

No

PBW

$9.78

$8.66

$11.95

$4.00

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Ross Stores

No

ROST

$35.90

$53.19

$58.93

$34.74

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have been impressive, especially given the "jobless recovery."

Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile

No

SQM

$36.36

$33.16

$43.93

$30.70

 

This is a great company that manufactures silicon for the solar and IT industry. Looking for a better buy-in, after we get through the current down-trending volatility.

Read the article, "Treasure Hunting," in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium," from Vol. 6, issue 4. SQM announced on Sept. 30, 2009 that prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be reduced by approximately 20% from current levels for the renewal of all its supply contracts. The purpose is to accelerate demand recovery, create incentives for research of new lithium uses, and contribute to the sustainable long-term development of the lithium market.

1Q earnings on May 25, 2010: earnings for the first quarter of 2010 of US$76.5 million, a decrease of 13.5% with respect to the same period of 2009, when earnings totaled US$88.4 million. Revenues totaled US$388.5 million for the first quarter, representing an increase of 21.0% over the US$321.1 million reported in the same period of 2009.

SQM's Chief Executive Officer, Patricio Contesse, stated, "After undergoing unprecedented economic challenges during 2009, which negatively impacted global markets, the first quarter of 2010 showed strong signs of a transition to pre-crisis levels. We observed positive signs of recovery in all of our business lines with higher volumes in each business segment in the first quarter of the year compared to first quarter of 2009. Although prices in our fertilizer and lithium businesses are lower than the same period last year, they are in line with our expectations for 1Q10. Although there continues to be economic uncertainty in global markets, improved economic conditions and a more encouraging outlook in general have had a positive impact on our businesses, and we expect this positive trend to continue throughout the year."

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

Beijing, China

Small Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SOHU

$46.54

$43.83

$72.29

$41.02

 

See NataliePace.com ezines, Vol. 3, issue 4 and Vol. 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs of the year in 2007. Read the articles in Vol. 4, issue 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network.

Tidewater

No

TDW

$41.81

$41.81

$57.08

$40.05

Read "Clean Up" from Vol. 7, issue 6.

Trina Solar Ltd.

No

TSL

$35.12

$16.72

$31.18

$8.32

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. Please note that TSL had a 2 for 1 stock split on 1.20.10. That is why the price looks dramatically different. Investors will note that they should now have twice as many shares…

FY earnings 2.24.10:

Total net revenues were $845.1 million, an increase of 1.6% from 2008. Gross profit was $237.2 million, an increase of 44.2% from 2008. Gross margin was 28.1%, compared to 19.8% in 2008. Net income for the full year was $97.6 million, an increase of 59.0% from 2008.

Conference call to discuss 1Q earnings has been scheduled for May 25, 2010 at 8:00 a.m. ET.

VMWare

No

VMW

$52.91

$66.18

$67.17

$25.27

Read "Health Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.

Westpac

No

WBK

$73.54

$94.73

$133.55

$68.75

Issued it’s full-year results on Nov. 4, 2009. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.

Net profit of $3,446 million, down 11% from a year ago. Not bad. Australian banks were the best in the world during recession, with Canadian Banks scoring high as well.

 

Cooling Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
Baidu (BIDU)
Netflix (NFLX)
Transocean (RIG)

DELETIONS:
None

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price 6.1.10

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

American Express

Yes

AXP

$16.98

$41.56

(11.16.09)

$39.83

$42.48

$9.71

+235% &

-4%

Read the article "American Express," from Vol. 6, issue 2. 1Q 2010 Earnings on 4.20.10: Revenues were down 11%. To $ 6,606. Net income was income of $885 million, up 103 percent from $437 million a year ago. $21 billion cash on hand. Debt is $44 billion and liabilities total $130 billion. (Market value of AMEX is $56 billion.)

"Cardmember spending was up 16 percent, rebounding strongly from the recessionary lows of last year," said Kenneth I. Chenault, chairman and chief executive officer. "Credit metrics also continued the improvement that began in the second half of 2009."

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$132.07

$200.38

(2.12.10)

$262.00

$272.46

$119.38

+200% &

+31%

See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple Chips."

2Q 2010 earnings on 4.20.10 were amazing: posted revenue of $13.5 billion, down from $15.65 billion in the 1st quarter (and $9.08 billion a year ago). Net quarterly profit of $3.07 billion (down from $3.38 billion in 1Q and almost double $1.62 billion of a year ago).

Apple sold 2.94 million Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.75 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 131 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 10.89 million iPods during the quarter, representing a one percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.

 

"We’re thrilled to report our best non-holiday quarter ever, with revenues up 49 percent and profits up 90 percent," said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. "We’ve launched our revolutionary new iPad and users are loving it, and we have several more extraordinary products in the pipeline for this year."

 

"Looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter of 2010, we expect revenue in the range of about $13.0 billion to $13.4 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $2.28 to $2.39," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. (FYI: This will be the second Q in a row with lower earnings.

Insider selling is in the range of $300 million. Consensus insider selling from multiple directors and officers, including CFO and COO. I Love Apple. At a better price in a more stable marketplace, with a better succession plan to Jobs. Seems like the insiders agree.

Applied Materials

No

AMAT

$12.76

$13.51 (9.15.09)

$12.72

$14.61

$8.19

Flat &

-4%

Leadership, product line and recessionary actions were strong, but AMAT transitioned to solar just when sales dropped off. Weathering the storm is imperative in the meantime. Investors should be aware of the high P/Es of this company, which is hard to justify in a contracting environment. With almost $2 billion in cash and marketable securities, AMAT is in a position to regroup and recover in the future. With any luck and with the worldwide emphasis on clean energy, this is a temporary setback.

1Q 2010 earnings call on Wed., February 17, 2010. FY loss (released on 11.11.09): For fiscal year ended Oct. 25, 2009, the company reported net sales of $5.01 billion and a GAAP net loss of $305 million or $0.23 per share.

Baidu

No

BIDU

$18.32

$48.80

(2.12.10)

$74.15

$82.29

$23.23

+404% &

+52%

Leading Chinese website for search (similar to Google). 115 P/E is high for a revenue stream so tied to advertising (during a global recession). (Advertising revenue models tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only 23, by comparison, right now.)

The primary Risk Factor for Baidu is: We derive revenues primarily from online marketing services, which accounted for 98.9%, 99.8% and 99.9% of our total revenues in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.

10 for one stock split on 5.12.10.

Berkshire Hathaway

No

BRK.A

$97,000

$114,000 (2.12.10)

$106,257

$125,252

$84,600

+10% &

-7%

See archived ezine Vol. 6, issue 8, for the feature article, "The Oracle Turns 80."

Added to the S&P500 on February 12, 2010. BRK.B did an unprecedented thing. Buffett made the stock affordable, by splitting it 50:1. Anyone can now buy in the $45-$78 range. Many tout triumph, but they may not be aware of the exposure that BRK has to financial giants, Wells Fargo and American Express, among other challenging industries (including insurance). BRK is also a big owner of Goldman Sachs, which was just charged with fraud.

Capital One Financial

No

COF

$22.29

$42.04

(1.11.09)

$40.92

$47.73

$16.57

+84% &

-3%

Read the articles "IPO of the Year," and "American Express," from Vol. 7, issue 3 and Vol. 6, issue 2. COF has a lot of liabilities that are highlighted in the Stock Report Card of the IPO of the Year article from volume 7, issue 3. If you read the SEC filings and realize how much COF has off the books, how much money they’ve had to take from the Feds and much liability they may have for mortgages that second parties want them to be responsible for, you’ll know why COF is on the Cooling Off List. Additionally, S&P rating is BBB with negative outlook.

 

Fortress Investment Group

No

FIG

$3.57

$5.37 (8.13.09)

$3.96

$8.30

$1.02

+11% &

-26%

1Q 2010 results on May 6, 2010:

For the quarter ended March 31, 2010, FIG’s GAAP net loss was $261 million compared to a loss of $287 million for first quarter 2009. Excluding principals agreement compensation, first quarter GAAP net loss was $27 million, as compared to a net loss of $52 million for first quarter 2009. (In other words, the principals at FIG are getting paid handsomely to lose their client’s and shareholder’s money for years now…)

Daniel H. Mudd, currently member of the Fortress board of directors, became the firm's new CEO effective August 11, 2009. George W. Wellde has been elected to Fortress' Board of Directors.

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Money Grows on Wisdom Trees," from Vol. 4, issue 3.

On 9.22.09: dividend was canceled by Board.

Intel

RISK: LOW

No

INTC

$16.66

$20.25 (9.1.09)

$21.31

$25.29

$12.06

+29% &

+5%

Intel is a great blue chip. But we are in a challenging year.

Maxwell Labs

No

MXWL

$18.05

$11.92

$21.81

$4.50

-34%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4.

1Q earnings on 4.30.10: Revenue of $26.6 million for its first quarter ended March 31, 2010, up 19 percent over the $22.5 million recorded in the same period in 2009. Operating loss for the first quarter 2010 was $1.6 million, compared with an operating loss of $1.8 million in the same period last year.

Cash and restricted cash totaled $38.1 million as of March 31, 2010, compared with $37.6 million as of December 31, 2009. Q110 gross margin was 38 percent, compared with 31 percent in Q109 and 34 percent in Q409.  Operating expenses totaled approximately $11.8 million, or 44 percent of revenue in Q110, compared with $8.8 million, or 39 percent of revenue in Q109.  

$47 million in debt, with $5 million due in the near future, and $30 million owed on accounts payable and employee compensation. (Uh oh!) (No mention of this in the 4.30.10 press release. Check the SEC earnings report for more details.)

Medtronic

No

MDT

$33.35

$42.44

(2.12.10)

$38.66

$46.10

$24.06

+16% &

-9%

Medtronic’s Infuse Bone Graft product has been at the center of the debate of some controversial deaths, and has investigated by a Congressional Panel, the Justice Department, the SEC and other national, state and local governance officials for issues related to the use of this product and others. Read the earnings report for a complete list of the complaints and current status. The company reports that on August 21, 2009, the Department of Justice decided not to intervene at this time but may intervene at any time for good cause based upon a Court Order entered on August 28, 2009.

MGM Mirage

No

MGM

$26.79

$12.27

$100.50

$5.10

-54%

Get more information in Vol. 5, issue 10 in the "(No) Viva Las Vegas" article.

1Q on 5.6.10:

Net revenue, excluding reimbursed costs, decreased 4% to $1.4 billion, compared to a 6% year-over-year decrease in the fourth quarter of 2009. First quarter diluted loss per share of $0.22 compared to earnings of $0.38 per share in the prior year first quarter.

Debt is a big issue with MGM. Check the SEC filing.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$29.64

$26.21

$30.53

$14.87

-12%

Read the "AOL" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Microsoft from December 2009.

Great blue chip (certainly better than Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG and GM were), if you buy at the right price. Good profit margins. Low debt. Loads of cash. Revenue seems to be coming back. But, headwinds of the marketplace will likely continue now, with continued oil spill trauma and hurricane season upon us.

Netflix

No

NFLX

$103.98

$109.10

$119.50

$36.25

+5%

Read "Blockbuster’s Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5.

Sears Holding

Yes

SHLD

$52.93

$98.06

(1.11.10)

$83.78

$124.96

$49.80

+58% &

-15%

Sears is up on Jim Cramer’s "appliance" picks from his January 8, 2010 show, not real earnings or outlook… (Remember: Jim also recommended Bear Stearns before it went bust, too.) Chairman Eddie Lampert has been dumping shares en masse, to the tune of over $376 million. Consensus insider selling…

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Discount Designer Stores," article (Vol. 5, issue 6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been trying to get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for months or been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot for so long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all of the board directors at Sears are in the investment business, not the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott, a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board has any experience at all in retail.

Still don’t have an official CEO. Bruce Johnson has been the interim CEO and president since January of 2008, which is not just "weird" it’s a BIG FAT RED FLAG! The former CFO Miles Reidy decided late in 2008 that he needed to spend more time with his family rather than to put is name on the 2008 annual report. Another big red flag.

1Q earnings on 5.20.10: Net income $16 million. Total revenues for the quarter of $10 billion in 2010 were flat with the first quarter in 2009. Cash balances were $1.8 billion at May 1, 2010.

Debt: $3.2 billion (as of 5.1.10). S&P gives a rating of BB- to Sears.

During the 13-week period ended May 1, 2010, Sears repurchased common shares at a total cost of $1 million under their share repurchase program. They have authorization to repurchase up to $581 million of common shares.

Taubman Centers REIT

No

TCO

$24.74

$34.55 (2.12.10)

$39.57

$45.00

$21.85

+65% &

+18%

Read the article, "Global Recession," from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.

1Q on 4.22.10:

Net income allocable to common shareholders per diluted common share (EPS) for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 was $0.11 versus $0.22 per diluted common share for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

"These results are in line with our expectations for the quarter and our guidance range for the year," said Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Taubman Centers. Rents were lower and lease cancellation income was higher than the comparable period last year. In addition, pre-development expense was up in large part due to nonrecurring consultant fees in 2010 and recoveries in the prior year.

Consensus insider selling.

Time Warner

No

TWX

$24.44

$30.15

$50.70

$17.81

+23%

Read the article, "Hulu Your Heroes," from Vol., issue 5 in May 2009.

 

1Q results on May 5, 2010:

In the quarter, Revenues grew 5% from the first quarter of 2009 to $6.3 billion, reflecting increases at the Networks and Filmed Entertainment segments. Adjusted Operating Income rose 37% to $1.4 billion, the highest quarterly Adjusted Operating Income in the Company's history, due to strong results at all of the Company’s segments. Operating Income increased 43% to $1.5 billion.

For the first three months of 2010, Cash Provided by Operations from Continuing Operations reached $1.4 billion, and Free Cash Flow totaled $1.3 billion. As of March 31, 2010, Net Debt wasunchanged from $11.5 billion at the end of 2009, due mainly to share repurchases, investment and acquisition spending, as well as dividends, offset by the generation of Free Cash Flow.

Turner signed Conan O’Brien to host a late-night talk show on TBS.

Toyota Motor Company

No

TM

$77.05 (2.12.10)

$71.55

$91.97

$51.79

-7%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota" from Vol. 7, issue 2. Sales fallout from the January 2010 floor mat and accelerator recall, which halted sales and affected 4.8 million (or more) vehicles; should show up on the interim earnings report on or about June 24, 2010. Look at price/viability going forward after that date. (If Toyota wasn’t such a strong leader in the auto manufacturing world, this company would be on the Cooling Off List until June.)

Transocean

No

RIG

$56.77

$56.77

$94.88

$50.04

--

For more information, read the article, "Clean Up," from June 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 6. 

Wells Fargo

No

WFC

$20.05

$29.21

(10.15.09)

$28.23

$44.69

$7.80

+41% &

-3%

See "Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings" in Vol, 5, issue 9, and "Wells Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12. Annual report will be issued at the end of Feb. 2010.

1Q on 4.21.10: Wells reports the following:

Revenue of $21.4 billion, up 2 percent from first quarter 2009

Net charge-offs declined $83 million to $5.3 billion.

Reduced high-risk/non-strategic consumer loans by $4.3 billion in the quarter, $23.2 billion cumulatively since Wachovia acquisition

Supplied more than $128 billion in credit during the quarter, including mortgage originations and consumer and commercial loans and lines of credit

Loan modification efforts continued to help homeowners remain in their homes

523,336 active and completed trial modifications between January 2009 and March 31, 2010:

Should you believe this, however, when most of the non-performing loans and other problems are off the books, and the Federal Open Market Committee Chairman Ben Bernanke is not releasing information on which banks are receiving which kind of support from the FOMC? Here’s a link to the Testimony that Chairman Bernanke gave on February 24, 2010 to Congress. The most interesting reading is at the bottom, in the section entitled, "Federal Reserve Transparency," where he states, "An appropriate delay would also allow firms adequate time to inform investors through annual reports and other public documents of their use of Federal Reserve facilities." This indicates that the public has not been properly informed at this time, but might be in the future, after an appropriate delay, which indicates that the earnings reports you are reading by this bank and others have a good deal that is not transparent in them.

Dick Kovacevich stepped down as chairman and a director at the end of 2009.

Wynn Resorts

No

WYNN

$95.42

$81.53

$176.14

$18.06

-15%

Check out the article, "(No) Viva Las Vegas" in Vol. 5, issue 10.

Watch Steve Wynn discuss Washington, Macau, Vegas, his new Beach Club at Wynn Encore (Las Vegas) and the future of America on CNBC.

"When you ask me about predictability and uncertainty in China compared to Washington, I’d take China. Washington is unpredictable these days… The people who buy our bonds in other countries don’t know what’s next. The uncertainty of the business climate in America is frightening to everybody and it’s delaying our recovery. We’re on our way to Greece in the hands of a confused and foolish government."

"People want to grow old ungracefully and at any price cling to immaturity.

"There were supposed to be 10,000 rooms across the street and they all went bust. They quit. The strip side of the Encore property was quiet and unanimated… We’re a group with uncompromising dedication to the pursuit of excellence."

"We lose money in Las Vegas because of lower room rates. Not enough to bother me because we have such a good capital structure. But Las Vegas is not a profitable city at the moment, and unlikely to become a profitable city right away."

 

1Q earnings on 4.29.10: Net revenues for the first quarter of 2010 were $908.9 million, compared to $740.0 million in the first quarter of 2009. Net revenues for the first quarter of 2010 were $908.9 million, compared to $740.0 million in the first quarter of 2009. Wynn Resorts also announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend for the quarter of $0.25 per common share. This dividend will be payable on May 26, 2010 to stockholders of record on May 12, 2010.

As of December 31, 2009, Wynn’s total debt outstanding was $3.6 billion, including approximately $2.5 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $1.1 billion of Wynn Macau debt.

Yahoo

No

YHOO

$15.00

$15.02

$18.02

$9.42

flat

Read the "AOL" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Yahoo from December 2009.


Deleted in 2008/2009/2010:
Fannie Mae was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on 6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on 8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with 75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction). Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on 10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09. First Solar was deleted on 8.13.09 with 33% gains. KB Home with 74% gains and Toll Brothers with 51% gains on 10.01.09.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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NataliePace.com Calendar:

Oil Spills. Market Nose Dives. Hurricane Predictions. Help! Get the Solutions You Need.

This month, due to all of the crises and disasters, we’ve taken action to make solutions and answers readily available to you. There are two series of FREE, interactive Tuesday Night teleconferences discussing easy strategies to get safe and prosper in volatile markets. Learn what is really happening with the oil spill (and which companies are responsible for the disaster and the cleanup) and secure your assets before hurricane season. See below for details.

Easy as a Pie Chart FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
Fat finger May 6th meltdown. The worst oil spill in history. What is happening? Amidst all of the chaos and headline horrors, there is a strategy for your survival that is easier than you think. Buy and hold and blindly checking off the box doesn't work in today's wild stock marketplace and hasn’t worked for the last decade. (We’ve had the DOT COM bust, the real estate bust, the bailouts and the Great Recession in the last ten years.) However, Modern Portfolio Theory, avoiding Bailouts, adding Hot Industries and annual rebalancing does. Learn these easy-as-a-pie-chart investing strategies that work great in bull and bear markets. Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305. Log onto: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nataliepace.

Directors Forum, Boston, MA
Wednesday, June 2nd, 2010

8:00AM through 2:00PM
4th Annual Directors Forum brings together board directors for a day-long edu and networking session. Keynote is: Vijay "VG" Govindarajan, Dartmouth College Professor and Chief Innovation Consultant at GE.

Money While You Sleep FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, June 8th, 2010
6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
You could have kept half of your nest egg safe and still earned 20% gains in 2009 (and there were just as many horror stories and market meltdowns in that year as there are today). Learn how! FREE. Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305. Log onto: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nataliepace.

Natalie Pace at Borders, Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, June 19th, 2010
2:00PM through 3:30PM PT
Natalie Pace will lead a fun, interactive, visioning game that asks (and answers) the question, "How would you live if you had all the money in the world." Come play with us and WIN! We have give aways from California Pizza Kitchen and Sephora for the first 25 people to show up. Additionally, enter a chance to win dinner for two to Canaletto, tickets to Phantom, a month at Barefoot Sanctuary and a seat at an upcoming Natalie Pace Get Rich and Enrich Retreat. Tell your friends and bring a friend!

Father's Day!
Sunday, June 20th, 2010

Wonder what Dad really wants? Check out our survey on the home page.

Summer Solstice
Monday, June 21st, 2010

Celebrate the dog days of summer, when the Earth is tipped closest to the Sun.

Getting Started Budgeting and Investing. FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010
6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
Wonder how to protect your nest egg in today's crazy marketplace? Learn the ABC-123 basics in this half hour call. Learn how in this FREE teleconference. Ask questions and get answers! Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305. Log onto: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nataliepace.

FOMC Meeting
Tuesday, June 22-23, 2010
9:00AM through 11:50PM
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting June 22-23, 2010.

Women in Biz National Conf. and Biz Fair. Baltimore, MD
Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

5:00PM through 5:00PM
Sheila Johnson, billionaire and first African American woman to build a luxury hotel, will keynote this conference. Sheila also owns the Washington Wizards, so hit her up for NBA tix! Bestselling author Suzy Welch will keynote the following day.

Easy as a Pie Chart FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
Fat finger May 6th meltdown. The worst oil spill in history. What is happening? Amidst all of the chaos and headline horrors, there is a strategy for your survival that is easier than you think. Buy and hold and blindly checking off the box doesn't work in today's wild stock marketplace and hasn’t worked for the last decade. (We’ve had the DOT COM bust, the real estate bust, the bailouts and the Great Recession in the last ten years.) However, Modern Portfolio Theory, avoiding Bailouts, adding Hot Industries and annual rebalancing does. Learn these easy-as-a-pie-chart investing strategies that work great in bull and bear markets. Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305. Log onto: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nataliepace.

Money While You Sleep FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
You could have kept half of your nest egg completely safe and still earned 20% gains in 2009 (and there were just as many horrific headlines last year as there are today). Learn how in this FREE teleconference. Bring your friends. Call-in Number: (347) 215-7305. Log onto: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nataliepace.

Get Rich and Enrich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
July 23-25, 2010
You spend hundreds of thousands learning how to earn money. Why not spend a fraction of that learning how to invest? 3 days in a boardroom setting, learning investing directly from Natalie Pace, sets you up for life. There are only three seats remaining in this intimate, boardroom retreat. Call 866-476-7442 to register NOW!

I


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