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Vol.7 Issue 10, October 1st, 2010
Send comments and suggestions or get more information at info@NataliePace.com

QUOTE OF THE MONTH:
"Our rising debt level poses a national security threat... It undermines our capacity to act in our own interest. It constrains us where constraint is undesirable. And it sends a message of weakness internationally."

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton,
Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, on September 8, 2010.


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Tony Curtis:Actor, Artist, Sex Symbol, Father and Savior of Stallions.

by Natalie Pace.

Rock n Roll in Paradise Bernie!

Tony Curtis.

Tony Curtis was born Bernard Schwartz, but in Hollywood, Tony was the embodiment of royalty. He hobnobbed in the highest social circles. He married beautiful women (six to be exact, including Janet Leigh and his most recent companion Jill Curtis, formerly VandenBerg). Tony is the father of Jamie Lee Curtis (whose mom is Janet Leigh) and five other children. On September 29, 2010, Tony Curtis died of cardiac arrest at his Las Vegas home.

Tony Curtis ruled from a facade throne in la-la land, then dazzled for decades in Sin City and ended up presiding over the very real and noble task of helping stallions pass to greener pastures at the Shiloh Horse Sanctuary (a nonprofit organization that he co-founded with wife, Jill Curtis). I ran into Tony Curtis in Rome on June 29, 2009, where he sang the praises of a life well lived – even if he was, at that time, viewing it from a "broken down chariot" – his wheelchair. "Ciao Bella!" Tony bellowed in his mirthful Bronx accent from across the hotel lobby, waving and winking up at me. The infectiousness of his greeting and unapologetic flirtation proved that he was still every bit the wild child superstar--trapped in an old man’s body.

My interview with Tony Curtis was impromptu and short. Without the opportunity to research his 140 films, I could only name two off the top of my head (Spartacus and Some Like It Hot). However, Tony didn’t care. "Don’t worry, honey," Tony assured me. "This is the interview you really want. Everyone already knows my films any way. This will be something more."

As Jill Curtis reminds us, ""All Tony ever wanted to be was a movie star. He didn't want to be the most dramatic actor." However, in 1959, Tony Curtis was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role for his portrayal of John ‘Joker’ Jackson in The Defiant Ones. He may have passed himself off as just a movie star, but his legacy in film, art and even poetry was a bright light in the sky for the 85 years he was alive.

 

Natalie: What’s your favorite movie that you’ve starred in?
Tony Curtis: I really can’t say. The movies were built around the culture and what was happening in the world at the time. Each is important in its own way.

Do you think movies are key to helping humanity understand their world and perhaps even transform the times?
They are simply important to the individual who sees them. I did love stories. Gangster stories. Guy meets girl. Guy gets the girl.

How do the Italians feel about your films? Are you popular here in Italy?
I was very popular in Rome for what I represent to the Roman audience, which is freedom. The Romans loved the impudence, the joy, the pleasure and the pain of life. Romans won’t be chastised for these things.

What would you tell Americans about the magic of Rome, of what it feels like to stand in 2000 year-old ruins?
I feel that I represent part of them. The ruins that I see, feel and sense here, now, in this moment of my time on Earth. The statues are broken down and seeking renovation. We all are. We are a product of the time we live in. I, like these ruins, have the strength and joy of being simply who I am.

With no regrets? No apologies or unfulfilled dreams?
If I failed in projecting anything, that is my fame. My fame is what I’ve contributed with my failures and my successes. I am like granite, broken, abused and refreshed by what has happened. My broken heart. My chariot that doesn’t work. I am all of these things.

 

You can learn more about the legacy of this famous film star at his website, TonyCurtis.com. Tony’s autographed memoir American Prince, is available on his website, where you can also view and purchase his original artwork.

Tony and Jill Curtis operate a nonprofit organization devoted to the rescue and care of abandoned horses that are destined for the slaughter house (and Verona, Italy, no doubt), called Shiloh Horse Rescue. To learn more, volunteer, visit, adopt and donate, visit ShilohHorseRescue.com.

If you’re interested in joining the dialog on Tony Curtis and sharing your favorite film of his, check out my blog on HuffingtonPost.com/Natalie-Pace.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.


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The Priceline Negotiator.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes a Travel Stock Report Card.

Priceline, thanks in large part to the rico suave of William Shatner, has become the most recognized price slashing travel service online. Revenue growth was up 27% in the 2nd quarter 2010 and Priceline has a cushy profit margin of 21½%, compared to 13% profit margin for Expedia and single digit profit margins for TravelZoo and Orbitz.

If you check out the Travel Stock Report Card (link), it’s easy to see that in terms of revenue growth, profit margins, popularity, debt and brand recognition, Priceline is a clear leader. Investors who bought in earlier this year have doubled their money! But will it be a winning investment going forward?

To answer that question, we must look at travel trends and current price/earnings ratio. Not surprisingly, Priceline’s share price is trading at a 52-week high, and the price to earnings ratio is a little frothy for the industry (and for the Great Recession) at 23.67. By comparison, Expedia’s price to earnings ratio is just 15.14.

With regard to travel trends, the most recent September Beige Book (the reporting of trends by the Federal Reserve Banks) notes that consumer spending was slightly up over the summer, relative to seasonal norms, as was travel and tourism. This is based upon data through the end of August, while the second quarter earning reports of Expedia and Priceline include data only through the end of June. Therefore, one might expect the third quarter earnings to be as strong as the second quarter for both online discount travel sites, particularly Priceline, which has been racing to the end zone in revenue during the Great Recession. Priceline revenue is up 43% over the last two years, while Expedia revenue has remained relatively flat.

It’s not all dancing in the streets, partying with Captain Kirk and watching $#*! My Dad Says at Priceline headquarters, however. In the 2nd quarter earnings report, Priceline’s management was cautious with regard to the future, writing, "Our recent performance has been aided by several factors that will likely not be present in future periods and, as a consequence, our year-over-year financial comparisons will be progressively more difficult, particularly in the second half of 2010." Indeed, the third quarter of 2009 was the second hottest quarter on record for Priceline, with sales topping $730 million. That is less than this quarter’s $767.4 million, so it shouldn’t be difficult for Priceline to beat, if early summer travel trends continued through September.

Another earnings issue for Priceline is that 2010 has seen a large loss of advertising revenue. The first half of 2010 was off 45% in the advertising income from 2009, at $6 million, down from $11 million. This is primarily as a result of the termination of a relationship with an advertising partner in September 2009. Advertising revenue is quite a small piece of the revenue puzzle for Priceline, but it is clearly headed in the wrong direction nonetheless (an area of growth for the future?).

Candid quotes are something to love in a CEO -- easily as appealing as memorable ads, excellent bargains, strong profits, robust growth and an easy-to-use website. So, Priceline is tops in my book. But with the market headwinds, hurricane season, slowing GDP growth, higher airfare (which will limit travel) and lofty share prices, I’d be taking profits now and looking to buy in later at a lower price. Bear in mind that if October gives candy to investors on Wall Street and if Priceline’s third quarter earnings are great (the report should be issued in the first week of November), Priceline’s share price could see another jump before hitting headwinds. There are a lot of if’s in that sentence – too many for my taste.

I put Priceline on the Cooling Off List today. Love the company – at a better price.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Higher Education and Technological Advances as Countries Develop.

by Dr. Gary Becker.

Dr. Gary S. Becker Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Nobel Prize winning economist

The essence of traditional international trade theory is that poorer countries produce goods and services with resources that they have in abundance, mainly low skilled labor and sometimes natural resources. They export these goods, and import goods from the richer countries that require skilled labor, and considerable physical and financial capital. This theory provides many insights, and must be followed if poor countries are to start on the path of economic development. However, it does not go nearly far enough in mapping out how countries can continue rapid development, and go from being poor to becoming middle-income, and eventually to becoming rich. 

To continue their economic progress, developing countries have to move up the product ladder and start producing more sophisticated goods. To do this, they need to import technologies from the rich counties, and increase the training and education of their populations. Advanced technologies are partly acquired through foreign direct investment and from trade with rich countries. Along with the more sophisticated goods and services imported, developing countries also acquire some of the technologies developed in the economically advanced nations.

Importing advanced technologies can carry developing countries to middle income status. To eventually reach much higher income levels, these countries must begin to innovate themselves as well. International trade and foreign direct investment are also necessary for this further stage of economic growth, but it is not sufficient. Continuing rapid development toward becoming a rich country requires skilled entrepreneurs and workers who can not only utilize and adapt technologies imported from developed countries, but who can also create and develop their own technologies and processes.

Several ingredients are needed to accomplish this--of course, particularly important are competitive markets and creative entrepreneurs--but in the limited space for the present discussion I want to stress the role of education, especially higher education. In early stages of economic development, a country needs a literate and energetic population with a wide education base of perhaps only a few years. But as countries continue to grow, they need to upgrade their education levels beyond elementary school toward high rates of secondary school completion among young persons.

Economists and other students of economic development have learned only in recent years about the great significance also of higher education for countries that want to progress beyond middle-income status. Higher education has become important to the development process mainly because of the growing value in the modern world of command over information and knowledge.  The spread of university education and training toward a much larger fraction of young persons is crucial to producing efficiently the kinds of products and services that would help developing countries continue to drive forward.

For several years, along with others, I have been studying the worldwide boom in higher education in both developing and developed nations. These studies document that the rates at which young men, and especially young women, have been graduating from universities have accelerated in almost every country during the past 30 years. China, for example, has had a growth in enrollments at universities of both young men and women since about 1990, and a sharp growth since the late 1990s. A similar rapid expansion of higher education has also occurred in many other still developing countries, such as South Korea. Developed countries too have generally also greatly increased enrollments at universities, although the U.S. has fallen behind in the fraction of young men who go on from high school to receive a college education.

The signal given to young persons that higher education pays off much more now than in the past is the sizable growth during the past several decades in the average earnings of individuals with a college education compared to the earnings of those who do not go to college. Earnings of persons with college education increased faster in recent decades not only in developed countries, but also in many rapidly developing countries, such as China and Brazil, that are supposedly specializing in goods that use less human capital. Developing countries imperil their continued economic advance if they fail to provide much greater opportunities for their young men and women to achieve a university education.

To conclude, the main message of my comments is that in order for poorer countries to continue to grow at fast rates, they must move beyond specialization in goods produced with relatively unskilled labor. They need to upgrade the goods they produce by utilizing more advanced technologies, and more skilled workers and entrepreneurs. At first, most advanced technologies are imported from other countries, but eventually developing nations need to produce themselves many of the technologies required to upgrade and expand their production. To accomplish this last great stage of economic development, both public policy and private households and businesses must begin to emphasize higher education, and other ways to greatly improve the advanced human capital of working men and women.

 

About Gary Becker:
Dr. Gary Becker is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking work in "human capital." President George W. Bush awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.

To keep track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit his website and blog.


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Bond Beautification Project.

What Should You Do with Your Bonds?

Ursula Andress as Honeychile 'Honey' Ryder in Dr. No

Dear Natalie…

Being on the Canadian side of the border, interest rates have increased a bit already and I’ve already been watching bonds rather closely.  I have a number of bonds for safety and I’ve always used bonds as a "til death do us part" investment.  In other words, my plan is to run them all until maturity.  All of the bonds I have are laddered between 2011-2016 with annual returns between 3-5% (not stellar but solid). 

I do have more to invest and I’m hesitant to pick more bonds or go into later maturity dates.  I’m thinking shorter term bonds so I have the cash to reinvest when things pay more? I noticed the article mentioned money markets.  I’ll do some research into that.

Signed,

Steady but Not Stellar

 

Dear Steady but Not Stellar,

Basically, now’s the time to do a bond beautification project. Perhaps the most important lesson of late is the Greek lesson. In early 2010, Greece and certain other European Union countries with high levels of sovereign debt had difficulty refinancing that debt and central bank intervention was required, causing significant devaluation of the Euro relative to other currencies. Since there are other nations and municipalities with similar situations, it’s important to separate the bailouts from the brides (to borrow your term til death do us part). Here are a few tips to help you do that.

  1. Fiscal Health: Look into the debt and revenue of the underlying country, corporation, municipality or revenue stream that is securing the bond. Don’t simply rely on rating agencies (although that’s a good start) because those failed investors in 2007-2008. Make your own assessment and separate the risky from the relatively safe. You want reasonable debt and solid revenue in the safe category, and massive debt with downtrending revenue in the pile that you might be looking to liquidate now.
  2. Bailouts vs. Brides: In the Bride category, separate the bonds that are high yielding (above 8%) from the low-yield bonds. If you have a low-yield bond that passed the fiscal health exam (#1 above) that is maturing in 2-3 years, you can throw that into the bride pile. If you have a low-yield bond that is longer term or has serious fiscal issues, consider liquidating now. Why? Because if the underlying entity has to issue new debt in the future, your low-yield bond will become illiquid. You may not be able to sell that bond once interest rates start to rise, which means that if you are in a position in the future when you have to liquidate (health reasons, unemployment, a sudden loss in income or an increase in expenses), you might not be able to, or if you are able to, you’ll have to seriously mark down the price. There are better investments out there than paper – like cash-positive hard assets.
  3. Tax-free Muni’s: Do an extensive analysis of any Municipal Bonds you are holding, particularly of the debt. Why? Having a tax-exempt investment is not very helpful when you take a serious loss of capital investment and/or if it becomes illiquid. According to Marc Miles, a global strategist and the former senior economist of the Heritage Foundation, the problems in Greece are similar to the problems in California, Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and New Jersey. Dr. Miles writes, "The problem was a large debt/GDP ratio and the stubborn resistance of state workers to allow their compensation (included unfunded pensions) to adjust to the new realities." Include union/pension funding/benefits and other post employment benefit obligations and debt in your evaluations.
  4. Separate the Googles from the GMs: Evaluate the Corporate Bonds using a Stock Report Card. Take a serious look at the debt and revenue growth. Read You Vs. Wall Street for tips on how to grade individual companies in a Stock Report Card, using my Four Questions. There have been defaults, more than normal and on companies that were formerly A-rated. So, do the extra legwork and brainwork to make sure that you’re not going to be stuck with a dud.
  5. Water Revenue versus Missing Revenue: Evaluate the Revenue Bonds considering the source of the revenue. Will this particular revenue stream be strong if the recession continues? People will still pay their water bill in a recession, but there are other non-necessities that have a higher revenue default rate. In that scenario, the underlying issuer may need to raise more money in the future, attracting investors by paying them a higher interest rate (which devalues the bond you are holding).

Basically, if you like the yield, if the underlying security is safe and steady (if not stellar), if you are only holding it for a few more years and if you are unlikely to need to sell it before it comes to term, then your bond is cool. With all of the if’s in that sentence, however, it is best to be sure that you eliminate as much doubt and risk as possible – on your own. Don’t expect the person who sold you the bond to be James Bond when it comes to assassinating his own commission.

With any bond, there are always eight key considerations. 

  1. Quality. 
  2. Liquidity. 
  3. Capital Appreciation.
  4. Yield. 
  5. Default Potential.
  6. Term.
  7. Interest rate environment. (Rising rates = the value of existing bonds go down. When interest rates go down, the value of existing bonds increases.)
  8. Tax considerations

Fall in love with these factors and chances are you’ll have a great marriage with your bond – til death do you part.

FYI: If you’re holding bond funds, you don’t have much control over any of these things. So bond funds will be the most volatile and downtrending at the onset of an increase in interest rates. The liquidity of the fund will play AGAINST investors, if everyone is moved to dump en masse. This is why I’ve issued many Investor Alerts on bonds, bond funds and Treasury Bills over the past few months. (Read the archives for more tips.)

Good luck!

Natalie

Other Articles of Interest:
"The Gold Crash of 1980." By Natalie Pace. A Brief History of Gold.
"Bonds, Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster." By Dr. Marc Miles and Natalie Pace.
"Don't Get Fooled Again," from Sept. 2010 ezine, vol. 7, issue 8.
"Latin America Funds Doubled," from August 2010 ezine, vol. 7, issue 8.
"Hot Funds of Summer," from July 2010 ezine, vol. 7, issue 7.
"Spring Rally. How Long Will It Last?" By Natalie Pace., from April 2010 ezine, vol. 7, issue 4.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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CEOs Should Tell It Like It Is.

by Ben Horowitz, partner Andreessen Horowitz.

Unemployment at a record high
People coming, people going, people born to die
Don’t ask me, because I don’t know why
But it’s like that, and that’s the way it is

–Run DMC

Ben Horowitz, partner Andreessen Horowitz.

My single biggest personal improvement as CEO occurred on the day when I stopped being too positive.

As a young CEO, I felt the pressure—the pressure of employees depending on me, the pressure of not really knowing what I was doing, the pressure of being responsible for tens of millions of dollars of other people’s money. As a consequence of this pressure, I took losses extremely hard. If we failed to win a customer or slipped a date or shipped a product that wasn’t quite right, it weighed heavily on me. I thought that I would make the problem worse by transferring that burden to my employees. Instead, I thought I should project a positive, sunny demeanor and rally the unburdened troops to victory. I was completely wrong.

I realized my error during a conversation with my brother in-law, Cartheu. At the time, Cartheu worked for AT&T as a telephone repairman (he is one of those guys that climbs the poles). I had just met a senior executive at AT&T who I’ll call Fred Johnson, and I was excited to find out if Cartheu knew him. When I inquired, Cartheu said, "Yeah, I know Fred. He comes by about once a quarter to blow a little sunshine up my ass." At that moment, I knew then that I’d been screwing up my company by being too positive.

In my mind, I was keeping everyone in high spirits by accentuating the positive and ignoring the negative. But my team saw that reality was more nuanced than I was describing it. And not only did they see for themselves that the world wasn’t as rosy as I was describing it, they still had to listen to me blowing sunshine up their butts at every company meeting.

How did I make such a big mistake and why was it such a big mistake?

The Positivity Delusion
As the highest-ranking person in the company, I thought that I would be best able to handle bad news. Interestingly, the opposite was actually true: nobody took bad news harder than me. Engineers easily brushed off things that kept me awake all night. After all, I was the founding CEO. I was the one married to the company. If things went horribly wrong, they could walk away, but I could not. As a consequence, the employees handled losses much better than me.

Even more stupidly, I thought that it was my job and my job only to worry about the company’s problems. Had I been thinking more clearly, I would have realized that it didn’t make sense for me to be the only one to worry about, for example, the product not being quite right—because I wasn’t writing the code that would fix it.

A much better idea would be to give the problem to the people who could not only fix it, but would be personally excited and motivated to do so. Another example: if we lost a big prospect, the whole organization needed to understand why so that we could together fix the things that were broken in our products, marketing, and sales process. If I insisted on keeping the burdens of setbacks to myself, there was no way to jump start that process.

Why it’s imperative to tell it like it is
There are three key reasons why being transparent about your company’s problems makes sense:

1. Trust
Without trust, communication breaks. More specifically:
In any human interaction, the required amount of communication is inversely proportional to the level of trust.

Consider the following. If I trust you completely, then I require no explanation or communication of your actions whatsoever, because I know that whatever you are doing is in my best interest. On the other hand, if I don’t trust you at all, then no amount of talking, explaining or reasoning will have any effect on me, because I do not trust that you are telling me the truth.

In a company context, this is a critical point. As a company grows, communication becomes its biggest challenge. If the employees fundamentally trust the CEO, then communication will be vastly more efficient than if they don’t. Telling things as they are is a critical part of building this trust. A CEO’s ability to build this trust over time is often the difference between companies that execute well and companies that are chaotic.

2. The more brains working on the hard problems, the better
In order to build a great technology company, you have to hire lots of incredibly smart people. It’s a total waste to have lots of big brains, but not let them work on your biggest problems. A brain, no matter how big, cannot solve a problem that it doesn’t know about. As the open source community would explain it, "given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow."

3. A good culture is like the old RIP routing protocol (bad news travels fast, good news travels slow)
If you investigate companies that have failed, you will find many employees who knew about the fatal issues long before those issues killed the company. If the employees knew about the deadly problems, why didn’t they say something?  Too often the answer is that the company culture discouraged the spread of bad news, so the knowledge lay dormant until it was too late to act.

A healthy company culture encourages people to share bad news. A company that discusses its problems freely and openly can quickly solve them. A company that covers up its problems frustrates everyone involved. The resulting action item for CEOs: build a culture that rewards—not punishes—people for getting problems into the open where they can be solved.

As a corollary, beware of management maxims that stop information from flowing freely in your company. For example, consider the old management standard: "Don’t bring me a problem without bringing me a solution." What if the employee cannot solve an important problem? For example, what if an engineer identifies a serious flaw in the way the product is being marketed? Do you really want him to bury that information? Management truisms like these may be good for employees to aspire to in the abstract, but they can also be the enemy of free-flowing information—some of which may be critical for the health of the company.

Final thought
If you run a company, you will experience overwhelming psychological pressure to be overly positive. Stand up to the pressure, face your fear, and tell it like it is.

 

About Ben Horowitz
Ben Horowitz is the cofounder and General Partner (along with Marc Andreessen) of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz based in Menlo Park, California. Ben was CEO of LoudCloud (a cloud service provider), which became Opsware, and then sold to Hewlett-Packard for $1.6 billion.

Other Articles of Interest
2004 Company of the Year: Opsware. by Natalie Pace. From January 1, 2004 ezine. Vol. 1, issue 44.
DOT COM Survivors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. Exclusive Interviews by Natalie Pace. From January 1, 2004 ezine. Vol. 1, issue 44.

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Saving for Retirement: IRA vs. 401(k).

by Rande Spiegelman, CPA, CFP®, Vice President of Financial Planning, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Rande Spiegelman.

Updated September 15, 2010 

Key points

  • We break down which retirement accounts make the most sense, and in what combination.
  • Your main workhorses for retirement savings will likely be an IRA along with a 401(k) or other qualified employer plan.
  • If your 401(k) offers a matching contribution, that's usually the best place to start.

Retirement was simpler when all you had to do was put in your time at work, retire and collect your checks. Between the company pension and Social Security, most retirees figured they had it made. And if they'd managed to save a little extra, it was gravy.

These days, that's all changed. For most workers, traditional defined-benefit pension plans have become a thing of the past. And few people seriously expect Social Security to provide the majority of what they hope to spend in retirement.

In short, our ability to save and invest on our own will likely determine whether we realize the retirement of our dreams—or just hope to get by somehow when we're no longer able to work for a living.

Getting started
Recognizing the need to save for retirement is the first step. That's followed by prudent retirement planning, which includes figuring out when you'd like to retire, how much you'd like to spend in retirement, and how much you need to save and invest now to get there.

After all that, you might think your next step would simply be to start saving. But with all the different retirement accounts out there—401(k), 403(b) or 457 plans at work, traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, regular brokerage accounts, deferred annuities—it can be hard to know which are best for you, and in what combination.

Retirement workhorses: IRAs and 401(k)s
Your main workhorses for retirement savings will likely be an IRA along with a 401(k), 403(b), 457 or other qualified employer plan, depending on what your workplace offers.

If you have earned income but your employer doesn't offer a retirement plan, you can always start by putting money in a traditional IRA or Roth IRA. But if you also have access to a 401(k) or other employer plan, should you fund your 401(k), your IRA or both?

The best choice is to fund your tax-advantaged options to the fullest (as shown in the table) if you're eligible, then move on to other ways to save for retirement if you're able (more below). But what if you can't afford to save that much?

2010 Contributions limits

 Account

Contribution limit

Catch-up contribution

401(k), 403(b) and 457

$16,500

$5,500

Traditional IRA and Roth IRA

$5,000

$1,000

Got a match?
If your 401(k) offers a matching contribution, that's usually the best place to start. For example, let's say you make $50,000. Your employer matches your 401(k) contributions dollar-for-dollar up to 6% of your salary, which for you amounts to $3,000. In this case, the first $3,000 of savings should go into your 401(k) plan. Why give up free money?

If you're able to save more than your employer will match, should you put the rest into your 401(k)? Or should you consider a traditional IRA or Roth IRA?

IRA vs. Roth IRA
Money you put in a traditional IRA is generally tax-deductible no matter how high your adjusted gross income (AGI) might be—unless you're an active participant in a qualified employer plan such as a 401(k), 403(b) or 457.

In that case, a traditional IRA contribution for 2010 is fully deductible for single filers with an AGI of $56,000 or below (partially deductible between $56,000–$66,000). For married filing jointly, the phase-out range for deductibility is between $89,000–$109,000 ($167,000–$177,000 for the nonparticipant spouse of an active participant in a qualified employer plan, when filing jointly).

Contributions to a Roth IRA are never tax-deductible, but qualified withdrawals are tax-free (unlike withdrawals from traditional IRAs, which are taxed as ordinary income). For 2010, you can contribute the maximum to a Roth IRA if your AGI is at or below $105,000 for single filers and $166,000 for married filing jointly. You can make a partial contribution if your AGI is between $105,000–$120,000 for singles and $167,000–$177,000 for married filing jointly.

If you're still able to save more after taking advantage of your employer's 401(k) match limit, here's what you should do next:

  • If you're eligible to make a deductible contribution to a traditional IRA, consider putting your next $5,000 there—especially if you expect to be in the same or lower income tax bracket in retirement when you take withdrawals. You're still getting a pretax deduction as you do with your 401(k), but you'll likely have more investment choices. If you can afford to save more after contributing $5,000 to a traditional IRA ($6,000 if you’re 50 or older in 2010), then continue with your 401(k) up to the maximum allowed.
     
  • If you're not eligible to make a deductible contribution to a traditional IRA but you're eligible for a Roth IRA, consider putting your next $5,000 into a Roth ($6,000 if you’re 50 or older in 2010). Your contribution won't be deductible, but qualified withdrawals will be tax free down the road. If you're in a higher tax bracket when you make your withdrawals, the Roth would be especially attractive. Ending up in the same bracket would mean a wash for income tax purposes—but a Roth IRA has other advantages.

    A Roth IRA doesn't force you to take required minimum distributions at age 70½, as you'd have to do with a qualified employer plan or traditional IRA. That's an advantage in terms of letting your Roth IRA continue to grow tax deferred in your later years. It could also benefit your heirs, who'd be able take money out income tax free after you're gone.

    Again, if you're able to save more after you put $5,000 in a Roth, continue with your 401(k) until you max it out.
     
  • If you're eligible for neither a deductible contribution to a traditional IRA nor a Roth IRA contribution, then just continue with your 401(k) until you've contributed the maximum allowed.

The Roth 401(k) 
A "Roth 401(k)" account (403(b) plans are also eligible) works much like a regular Roth—contributions come from after-tax dollars and qualified withdrawals are income tax- free. But there is no income limit to participate!

Eligible employees can contribute to either the traditional 401(k) or the Roth 401(k), up to the 2010 contribution limit of $16,500 per individual, plus an additional $5,500 catch-up contribution for those 50 or older. Also, the balance from a Roth 401(k) could be rolled over directly into a regular Roth IRA when you leave the employer. An employer match, if any, would automatically go into the traditional 401(k) option, regardless of where the employee contributions are directed.

Assuming your employer offers the option, the choice of a Roth 401(k) could make sense if you think your tax bracket will be the same or higher in retirement—not a bad guess given today’s relatively low tax brackets and the potential to generate significant portfolio income and retirement distributions from other deferred accounts. If that’s the case, then maxing out on a Roth 401(k) and then contributing to a Roth IRA, if eligible, might be the way to go.

On the other hand, if you’re in a lower bracket when you retire (or, even worse for the Roth, if the current income tax is replaced by a flat tax or consumption tax), then a traditional 401(k) would have been a better bet. One way to hedge against the unknown is to split your contributions between the traditional option and the Roth option, assuming your employer makes both available.

Example using 2010 limits
Your salary is $107,500. Your goal is to save 20%, or $21,500. Your employer matches your 401(k) contributions, up to the first 6% of your salary ($6,450).

  1. First $6,450 to 401(k)
  2. Next $5,000 to a Roth IRA (not eligible for a deductible contribution to a traditional IRA)
  3. Next $10,050 to 401(k)

In this case, you're able to contribute the full $16,500 limit to your 401(k) and the full $5,000 limit to a Roth IRA.

If the amount you're able to contribute to an IRA and 401(k) each year is less than the maximum allowed, you would follow the order above until you reached your personal savings limit (assuming the employer match).

Keep in mind your 401(k) has a distinct advantage: Once you set your savings percentage, you're on "pay yourself first" autopilot. Since you have a greater opportunity to spend money earmarked for your IRA, you need to be more disciplined about saving it.

What if I've maxed out my 401(k) and IRA?
If you've maxed out your 401(k) and whatever IRA option makes the most sense, and you're looking to save more, kudos are in order!

Here's where to go with those extra retirement dollars:

  • Regular brokerage account. Additional retirement savings can go right into your brokerage account. Remember, even if you hold retirement assets in both taxable and tax-advantaged accounts, you should consider all your investments as one big portfolio reflecting a single asset allocation. What's more, you may be able to add value by placing more tax-efficient investments in your taxable accounts and less tax-efficient investments in your tax-advantaged accounts.
     
  • Nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA. Even if you're covered by an employer plan and you're above the AGI limit for a Roth IRA or a deductible contribution to a traditional IRA, you can still make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA. Whether you should or not is a tough call. Besides no up-front deduction, any earnings will be taxed as ordinary income when you withdraw them, so a nondeductible IRA contribution isn't an overly compelling choice. The advantage rests solely on the benefit of tax-deferred compounding. But you could effectively defer taxes on stocks in your taxable accounts by trading infrequently or buying an index fund. And if you're in a higher tax bracket and you want to hold bonds in your taxable account, you could always buy municipal bonds, which are tax-free.
  • Deferred variable annuities. This option has some similarities to a nondeductible IRA contribution, with some notable differences:
    • Most deferred variable annuities have an optional death benefit, so your heirs would at least be sure to get what you put in, even if your investments lose value.
    • There are no required minimum distributions to deal with.
    • You have the option to annuitize your balance, which might come in handy if you're looking for a regular monthly check at some point during retirement.

The downside here is that variable annuities typically include additional costs and fees that can make them relatively expensive.

The bottom line
If you haven't begun to save for retirement—or you're saving less than you should—what are you waiting for? Now that you know which retirement accounts make the most sense, start filling them up!

Important Disclosures
Variable annuities and certain other annuities are sold by prospectus only. Before purchasing an annuity, you should carefully read the prospectus and consider all of the risks, charges and expenses associated with the annuity and its investment options. You can request a prospectus by calling 888-311-4889 or visiting www.schwab.com/annuities.

Because a variable annuity's value will fluctuate depending upon the underlying investment, an investor’s units, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original amount invested.


Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., a licensed insurance agency, offers annuity products that are issued by non-affiliated insurance companies. Not all annuity contracts are available in every state.

Fixed-income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Municipal bonds are debt securities issued by state and local governments and their agencies. The interest they pay is free from federal taxation and sometimes state and local taxes.

Establishing a retirement plan involves a number of tax consequences you should be aware of prior to making an investment decision. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, Schwab recommends consultation with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, Financial Planner or Investment Manager.

The information presented does not consider your particular investment objectives or financial situation and does not make personalized recommendations. This information should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The investment strategies and the securities shown may not be suitable for you. We believe the information provided is reliable, but Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. ("Schwab") and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.


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Get A Raise With One Easy Word. Ask.

by Chellie Campbell, author of Zero to Zillionaire and The Wealthy Spirit.

Chellie Campbell.

Do you love to ask for money? Or does that phrase make you cringe a little bit?

Did you know that women have specific financial hurdles to success that men don’t have?

  • Men think of negotiating as "winning a ballgame"
  • Women think of negotiating as "going to the dentist"
  • When men negotiate, they get paid approximately 30% more than women
  • By failing to negotiate their starting salary, a person will lose $500,000 by age 60
How to Ask for a Raise and Get It
"I’m going to ask for a raise," I declared to my co-worker and friend, Jennifer.

"Yeah? Why do you think you deserve one?" she asked.

I was incensed. What did she mean? Wasn’t she my friend?

"Well, I’ve been here a year already," I huffed.

"So what? Just warming the bench doesn’t mean you deserve more money," she replied.

Tuna Chellie frowned and looked at her resentfully.

"Come with me," she said, and motioned for me to sit down in her office. Then she taught me what I needed to know.

"Asking for a raise is just like making a sale," Jennifer said. She went on to tell me that you have to list all your accomplishments and what they mean to the company in terms of producing or saving money. Just doing an acceptable job at what you were hired to do doesn’t mean you deserve more money. Raises come to people who have done an exceptional job, and have worked at a level beyond the scope of their current job. She showed me how to compare how things were at the company when I arrived, how I have improved them, and what they are like now. She told me to research other companies and what they were paying people in similar jobs. Armed with this new sales technique, I went in to see the boss, closed the sale, and got a raise.

That was many years ago, but I never forgot Jennifer’s training, and I know a lot of people never had a Jennifer in their life to share with them this valuable lesson. It’s another sales lesson. Whether you’re asking a boss for a raise or raising your rates to your clients, you have to make the sale. Paint the picture of how much you have done in the past and what you are going to do in the future to make their lives better and more prosperous, so that they can see you deserve more money.

You have to get comfortable with earning more money and being more abundant. Practice saying your new salary or your new price so that you can say it without hesitation. If you think it’s a big number, your awe will show, and people will talk you out of it. Often people who have rich clients are afraid to ask for a reasonable amount of money for their products or services. A massage therapist might feel awkward asking for $125 for a massage if he couldn’t afford to get regular massages himself.

A Little Exercise to Enlarge Your Income
Here’s something to practice that could greatly increase your income. Let’s say that your current price for your product or service is $100 and you’d like to start charging $150. For you to say, "I charge $150" after you’ve been saying $100 for a long while is difficult. It’s uncomfortable because you’re in the habit of saying $100. All your fears about your worthiness and ability to receive abundance clutch at your insides. You choke on the words, stutter, or make your request weakly, wincing while you say, "I, uh, charge, er, a hundred and um, ah, fifty dollars??"

The client is going to call that obvious bluff immediately: "A hundred and fifty dollars!?? That’s too much money!" That will never do.

You’ve got to say your new price proudly and strongly. You have to practice saying it, so that you can toss the figure away when you say it, like you think its nothing. Here’s the trick that will help: Take the new price (not the current price) you want to charge—$150—and double that to $300. Sounds outrageous, doesn’t it? That’s the point. Now practice saying that price: "I charge $300," "I charge $300," over and over. At least twenty times a day for a week or two. You will be amazed at how little $150 sounds to you after that. You’ll speak it easily to your clients, because after $300, $150 sounds like a bargain. Your clients will take their cue from you this time, too, and be more likely to have a more relaxed acceptance of your price.

Many of my clients have been amazed at how well this exercise has worked for them. Not only that, but a lot of them reported their clients mentioned being surprised their prices had been so low and were waiting for them to start charging a higher rate.

The Small Business Administration reports that one of the top reasons small businesses go under is that they don’t charge enough money for their products or services. My client, Adi, taught all-day Yoga classes and charged $6. He got ten students, one of whom didn’t even pay the $6. He knew his pricing was too low, but he just enjoyed teaching the class and didn’t want money to stand in the way of people attending. But he needed more money in his life, so he decided to charge $235 for the next all-day session. He got three students. In the first scenario, he made $54. In the second, he made $705. The difference in his income was $651.

How Much Money Do You Want?
I give myself a raise every year or so. If I were working for someone else I’d want a raise, and I want to be a better boss to myself than someone else. A lot of entrepreneurs who don’t pay themselves enough money would never work for such a chintzy boss in the corporate world. In fifteen years of teaching classes, I have found that how much I charge makes no difference in attendance at my workshops. It makes a difference in who attends, not how many attend. There are about 20 million people in the greater Los Angeles area, and I don’t need all of them—I only need twelve. So I call until I get twelve—you see? If I charged less, in order to make the same income, I would have to enroll many more people. Then I would have to book a hotel instead of doing it at my house, that would cost more money so I’d need to enroll more people and then I’d need more help and then I’d have to have employees and then I’d have to enroll more people to pay the employees and then it’s a bigger business than I want. And I’ve lost the life I want.

But the sales process for my workshop business—the enrollment conversation—takes the same amount of time, no matter what my price is. That’s why bankers don’t bother with small loans—it takes them the same amount of time to process a $10,000 loan as a $10 million loan and they make a lot more money on the bigger loan. In the same way, I want to make sure the pricing works for me, first. You need to start with your vision, then work backwards to see what you need to charge in order to create your living the way you want to live your life. If people want the benefits of what you do, they will pay the price for it, whatever it is. There will always be people who "can’t afford you." You can’t bring your pricing down to the lowest common denominator and only charge a dollar because there are poor people who need you who only have a dollar. You can run a charity like that, but you can’t run a business like that. Don’t choose a non-profit business model unless you’re a bona-fide 501c3.

 

About Chellie Campbell:
Chellie Campbell is the creator of the Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops, and author of The Wealthy Spirit and Zero to Zillionaire. She has been prominently quoted as a financial expert in the Los Angeles Times, Good Housekeeping, Lifetime, Essence, Woman’s World and more than 50 popular books. If you are interested in taking one of Chellie’s Financial Stress Reduction® Workshops, be sure to visit Chellie.com.


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Alvin Tam.

The Ultimate Realization.

by Alvin Tam.

It’s been nearly 6 weeks since I began my subjective reality experiment. Subjective reality is assuming that everything around you is a creation of your consciousness. There is no exception, not the good nor the bad. You create everything, everyone and every single interaction you have. Objective reality is seeing the world as separate from you: you are an independent being moving through a world of unrelated events, people, circumstances. You are a lone ranger-scientist manipulating a world of uncontrolled variables.

In my last blog to you I mentioned that I was approaching two problems with the subjective reality mindset: the vindictive neighbor and the invading ants (reread the article here). Here’s what happened:

The Vindictive Neighbour
After an angry neighbor tore down our yoga class signs that we posted around our community, I decided to see her as an extension of my consciousness rather than through an objective lens: a conniving, separate-from-me, human being whose purpose was to make my life miserable by thwarting my yoga advertising efforts. Instead I focused on seeing what her actions represented in me, if she was indeed a part of me. I began to see that her pettiness was my pettiness, her vindictiveness was my vindictiveness, and her unruly self-righteousness was my unruly self-righteousness. None of this was flattering, but I decided to heal the situation, not by confronting her or by posting more signs, but by sending thoughts of "I love you" to her, which in a subjective world, is really me sending thoughts of love to myself.

The result was that I never saw her face again in the neighborhood until just last week, despite the fact that I walk the dog twice a day and I know that she gets out for her morning walk every day also. It was almost as if her existence simply vanished from my consciousness. There’s been no further conflict, and our yoga classes continue to fill up.

The Case of the Invading Ants
After waking one morning to discover that ants had taken over our kitchen counters and sinks, I decided to solve the invasion with a subjective reality approach, instead of with a can of Raid. My wife Jaime and I talked about how the ants represented our lack of accountability. The ants came supposedly because we didn’t always do the dishes right away, or put the food away on the counter, but they came also because we didn’t always pay the bills on time, or that we procrastinated with some of business efforts, like finding distributors for our instructional DVDs. We then created a concrete plan to make sure we were more accountable in all areas of our lives, like doing the dishes more frequently, and starting an application for a potential DVD distributor.

The result was amazing. I didn’t see another ant in our kitchen for three weeks. Previously, even if we had kept the counters and sink clean, there would always be one or two ants roaming about. We didn’t see any ants until one day we mistakenly left out the maple syrup. They came back in droves for a day or two and then disappeared again.

The Rebel in the Yoga Class
I’ve had a few other epiphanies along the way. During the month of August I was taking quite a few hot yoga classes, the type of yoga you do in a heated room to increase your flexibility and sweat out toxins. It’s a greatly beneficial form of yoga and exercise but the one thing that I don’t like about it is the fact that the class is highly regimented and that there’s really no deviation allowed from the established routine or positions. Since I like to create movement and am an independent thinker, showing up at class became increasingly more difficult.

As I took more classes, I found myself becoming increasingly irritable with the rigid system. I would find myself resisting the teachers’ instructions or would feel rebellious. Imagine that – a rebel at a yoga class! How funny yet misplaced.

The part of the class that I didn’t like was the rigidity, the formality, the unbending systemized sequence of movements, speech, and breath. It was becoming a tight, unforgiving experience, where I would be lightly reprimanded for not straightening my knee enough, turning my head to the wrong side, or – God forbid – yawning. It was beginning to drive me bonkers.

That’s when my subjective reality filter kicked in. If the yoga class was really me, then what part of me did it represent?

It represented the part of me that was unyielding, unforgiving, systematic, and rigid. And though nobody likes to lay claim to undesirable attributes, my subjective reality filter was telling me that I was all of these characteristics and had probably subjected others to actions of non-forgiveness or rigidity in the past.

These realization lay the foundation for me to exercise flexibility, calmness, and patience for my next epiphany, and the ultimate realization in subjective reality: the birth of my son.

The Ultimate Realization: the Birth of Our Son
Our son, Satori Tiger Tam, arrived on August 31, weighing in 6 pounds, 5 ounces. There’s no joy like seeing his face illuminate with satisfaction after a feeding, and there’s no anguish like hearing him cry at night because he has gas in his tummy. The range of emotion is off the charts. I am overwhelmed by the powerful instinct to love, protect and serve, and humbled by the miracle of birth and life.

Through the days of pre-contraction labor and childbirth, my world became suspended in a bubble of doctors, baby, bottles, and diapers. Was it normal for the baby to spit up? Did we need the vitamin K shot for blood clotting? How do we breast feed? How often do we change his diaper? It was a learning curve like no other.

When the dust settled (somewhat) and we were back at home away from the blinking hospital lights, nurses, and exams, I finally asked myself the question: "What part of me does Satori represent?" I was astounded by the answer.

He doesn’t represent me. He is me. He is from both of his parents in every way – biologically, genetically, psychologically, spiritually. He is me… and I am him.

Suddenly, I had found an example where I could not deny its validity from either a subjective reality or an objective reality viewpoint. Objectively, he is me. He carries my DNA, adopts my behavioral patterns, and even looks like me. Subjectively, he doesn’t just represent a part of me anymore, he is me. When I see the frustration on his face from hunger, I see my own frustration. When I see his content eyes gaze up at me, I see  my eyes peering forth with love. He is a living, breathing mirror of me.

Objectively, from my wife’s standpoint, he is even more of her than me. She birthed him; he came from her physically. The lines between objective and subjective reality become blurred. Through both reality filters our son does not only represent a part of us, but is us.

So the final realization is that since we are all born of our mothers, and that, despite the fact that we are billions of human beings on the planet, we can trace our roots back to a small group of early ancestors. In that sense, we all come from the same common pool of genetic and biological material. From an objective standpoint, we are each other, and science and logic can prove it so.

From a subjective reality filter, we say that everything is a representation of our consciousness. But with my child in hand, I realize that representation is still a term too distant. It’s important to ask what part of me is this circumstance, person, or thing? My child is me, and I am him. There is no separation or symbolism. The liaison is concrete, factual, real.

I can begin to deepen my understanding now of living life through a filter of subjective reality by asking how everything around me is me, not how everything represents a part of me. It’s a subtle but important shift in mindset, a minor angle change of the paradigm, but so incredibly more accurate, rewarding, and eye opening. There is greater power and depth in living in a world of "is" rather than a world of "represents".

I don’t know if I’ll always be able to stay in a world of subjective viewpoint with Satori. In the middle of the night, when I’m changing his diaper for the third time, I find myself slipping into a world of me separated from him. How can you poo so many times in three hours? How can you be so hungry, we just fed you!? The test of mind shift comes not when there is joy, contentment, and relaxation in his face, for those are easy qualities to claim as parts of me. It’s when he’s fussy or frustrated that I need to ask myself how is he being me, and remind myself that he, like everything around me, is a creation of my consciousness.

Since the adventure of raising a child has only just begun for us, I am sure that I’ll be waffling back and forth between objective and subjective reality with him for a long time, until perhaps it will become a fully integrated behavior and I will stop living life in the objective world. It will be important for me to never forget the obvious truth – that he is me – and apply that simple maxim to trying times ahead, as well as of course the beautiful, loving, and rewarding moments also. He is me, I am him, you are me, and I am you. Simple. So challenging, and yet so ever rewarding.


- Alvin.

 

Bio
Alvin Tam is the founder of Soul Acrobats®, an inspirational products company and Acrofit™, an acrobatic fitness system. He has over 15 years of experience as a circus artist, stuntman, dancer, actor, and coach and has performed for Cirque du Soleil, Notre Dame de Paris, and appeared on CSI. Alvin’s passion is to inspire you to achieve your impossible.

Products
Visit: http://www.soulacrobats.com/products-page/
BOOK: The Art of Impossible
DVD: The Acrofit System Level 1, Expressive Yoga for the Soul

 


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Treasury Bills 101.

by Staff.

8 Important Questions and Answers on the World’s Safest Security.

1. What are Treasury securities?
These are bonds and notes issued by the federal government, which are backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. Because of that, they are considered to be some of the safest and most liquid investments in the world.

2. How do I buy a Treasury bill?
The Federal government has a website where you can buy and sell your Treasury bills directly. The website is http://www.TreasuryDirect.gov. You can get a lot of information on various Treasury securities and any fees/penalties associated with purchasing and selling these assets there as well.

3. How Much Money Will I Make on a Treasury Bill?
Currently, if you purchase a T-bill that matures in 3-12 months, there is no interest being paid. However, this is considered to be a safe and liquid place for your dough, where the principal should not go down. The 10-year Treasury bill is yielding 2.625.

4. How Can I Check on the Current Yield of Treasuries?
Bloomberg has an excellent and up-to-date page for bond yields, and you can easily check up on Hong Kong, Australia, UK, Germany and Japan’s yields while you’re at it. Click on Bloomberg to access this page.

5. What are Treasury Bill Funds?
These are products that you can purchase on the stock market. Each fund provider, whether it is a Mutual Fund or an Exchange Traded Fund, determines what kind of treasuries they purchase and of what maturity dates, so it is important to read the description of the fund before you purchase it. Most of the major fund providers have Treasury funds, including iShares, Wells Fargo, American Century, Pimco and more.

6. Can the Value of a Treasury Bill Fund go down?
Yes. A quick spot check on the Power Shares Laddered Treasury portfolio (PLW) reveals fairly steady share price this year, however, there is fluctuation. The 52-week high is $30.32 and the low is $26.30. When interest rates rise, the value of the fund can go down dramatically.

7. Can the Value of a Treasury Security Go Down?
In a recent Wall Street Journal Article Professors Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz point out that if the 10-year note, which was yielding 2.8% at the time, rose to only 3.15% the capital loss would be 1.9%.  if the yield rose to 4.0% like they were in the spring, the loss would be closer to 6.0%.  The 10-year is now yielding even less (closer to 2.6%), so the current risk is even bigger.

8. How Do You Know When/If the Value of a Treasury Security or Bond Will Go Down?
There is an inverse relationship between the value of a bond and interest rates. When interest rates rise, the value of lower-yielding bonds goes down. This makes sense because if someone can purchase a new bond with a 6% yield, no one will want to purchase your bond with a 3% yield (and you’ll want to trade up for that 6% yield, too!). When interest rates fall, the value of bonds with the higher yield increases. During the 2001-2002 Recession, bond values were the best game in town (because interest rates were falling). Bond traders reported gains of 25% and more for bonds with a good yield (returns which are typically reserved for the high-risk junk bond category).

Learn more About Treasury Securities on the FINRA website:
Learning to Invest, Part 17—Treasury Securities (PodCast)
Smart Bond Investing: U.S. Treasury Securities



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Bankrupt Bond Funds and Scams.

by Natalie Pace.

Photo by: Stacie Isabella Turk. (c) 2008. Ribbonhead.com. Stylist: Melody White. Art Direction: Arlene Hylton-Campbell.

Below are three actions that the Securities and Exchange Commission took last month against alleged securities wrongdoing. The stories and lessons could help you from being a victim in the future!

1. Beware of the Fine Print – even if You’re Dealing with a Marquise Brand
The SEC's Division of Enforcement alleges that John P. Flannery and James D. Hopkins marketed State Street's Limited Duration Bond Fund as an "enhanced cash" investment strategy that was an alternative to a money market fund for certain types of investors. By 2007, however, the fund was almost entirely invested in subprime residential mortgage-backed securities and derivatives. Yet despite this exposure to subprime securities, the fund continued to be described as less risky than a typical money market fund and the extent of its concentration in subprime investments was not disclosed to investors.

http://sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-177.htm

Now if you think that State Street is just a fly by night operation set up to dupe investors and run off to Switzerland, you’re wrong. State Street is a leader in financial services that was founded as a bank in 1792 in Boston, Massachusetts. The company is publicly traded (NYSE: STT), with a current market value of $19 billion. One of State Street’s most popular funds, GLD, a gold fund, has assets valued at $64 billion, making that fund the second most valuable ETF in the world. State Street’s total assets under management as of March 31, 2010 exceeded $204 billion.

When the State Street portfolio managers discovered the assets were bankrupt, they informed a few friends and clients, who drained the fund completely, leaving investors that were not in the know holding illiquid, worthless assets.

State Street will have to repay investors $300 million (and another $350 million in private lawsuits), but there is no mention of what that really amounts to. (It is doubtful that this is 100% payback, and the investors will have to pay a pretty penny of this settlement to their attorneys).

It’s difficult and costly to sue to get your money back, when you’ve purchased an unsecured, uninsured investment – even when the marketing materials are misleading.

2. Everything They Touch Turns to Gold. Promise.
The SEC charges that Quri Resources, Inc. and its CEO Jaime Santiago Gomez of Miami and Quito, Ecuador, issued misleading press releases for several months in 2009 falsely claiming that it was about to begin drilling on a mining project in Ecuador with a probable gold reserve worth more than $1 billion. While investors bought in, insiders were dumping as fast as they could.

Were there any red flags? Yes! The biggest red flag is that this company was trading off the boards. (OTCBB). Companies that trade on NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange must meet many requirements in order to list on the exchange. While that doesn’t guarantee that the company is healthy or will make a good investment, it does mean that they have filed earnings reports with the SEC, have a board and have a stable share price over a period of time. OTCBB companies don’t have to meet any of this criteria, which means that you have to do 1000 times the research before plunking down a nickel for the risky bet. Your favorite financial website should list the exchange the company is traded on. The exchange is also listed in the company press releases. (The Pink Sheets is another "off the board" listing.)

Other Quri red flags include: fake website, no way to contact the company, no corporate headquarters (press releases were issued from Miami, FL and Quito, Ecuador), an "exploration company" that is going to start mining, but hasn’t ever done so before and doesn’t provide any data on how many reserves the company owns and what grade the ore is. Additionally, this company used socially conscious lingo to lure in greenies, without providing any details on how the company mines and operates in such a people-friendly and planet-friendly manner.

3. Telly Tube: the Next YouTube
The SEC separately charged Atlantis Technology Group and CEO Christopher Dubeau of Weston, Fla., for disseminating press releases over an eight-month period touting phony business relationships with television networks to sell their video and telecommunication services that did not even exist.

Atlantis is another OTCBB company, which is the first red flag. While it might take a sophisticated investor to see the holes in their press releases, it only takes a good nose to smell a rat and below are just a few of the telltale signs.

  1. About Us: GoTV (one of Atlantis’ holdings) has an About Us page that doesn’t list a single executive at the company.
  2. The CEO of Atlantis has an extremely thin resume. Essentially, the only thing he’s done is this company. He claims to have achieved two successful spinoffs from Atlantis, without providing any details of those successes.
  3. There are only two members of the Atlantis’ Board of Directors. The CEO and one other person. The second director’s sole business achievements (listed) occurred in 1979.

Whether it is a legacy company that is taking on more risk than they are telling you about or a novice who is in over his head – with a story designed to excite you – the devil is in the details. Always read the fine print on what you’re investing in and always know exactly who is running the show and where their real interests lie.

 

To learn more about the SEC charges, go to SEC.gov.

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

 

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Investor Alert:

by Natalie Pace.

If You’re Trading on Headlines, You’re Late.

For the past two months, I’ve been issuing a high alert that bonds, bond funds and Treasury Bills are the next disaster waiting to happen. I have also been warning that in the Apocalypse, an iPhone or a gallon of gas will be easier to trade than a nugget of gold. Most people don’t realize that gold hit $850/ounce for ONE DAY ONLY in 1980. Gold dropped $100/ounce the following day and ended the year down 1/3. For the next two decades, gold was worth less than half of its high. (That doesn’t mean I want you to sell your gold right now; it means that gold is the next bubble and you shouldn’t be all in.)

I want to put this in context for you, in the hopes that you’ll understand the urgency of this situation. When I issue a warning, I’m early, which, fortunately, allows you the time to read the articles, consider what is appropriate for you and take action to protect and grow your assets, while keeping your bottom line beautiful. When the problem hits national headlines, you’re late. So read up, prep up and protect yourself.

Below are just a few examples of my early alerts to investors and the way that they profited.

  1. Christmas 1999. At Christmas parties in 1999, everyone was bragging about how much money they had made on the AOL stock, up to 9000%, some claimed! I said, "Sell then. Take your profits while you can." I was told repeatedly by people who were watching too much television that I was ignorant and didn’t understand the New Economy. I responded that I had a pretty good understanding of the old economy. Eight years of prosperity, a Rookie President, DOT COMs that were cash negative for five years (when the venture capital stops in three) all added up to a recession. I was four months early on that prediction. Dot Com stocks rose through March of 2000 and then sank 75% over the next two years.
  2. Performance of NASDAQ January of 2000 through January of 2003

    Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)

  3. Cash Beautiful 2000: With my crystal ball working so well in 1999, I sidestepped the Dot Com Recession and was in the top-performing asset of 2000 – Certificates of Deposit. When I went on to purchase stock in 2001, I more than doubled my money in just a few short months. At that point, those who had lost more than half of their nest egg began begging me to teach them what I know.

  4. 911: My Stocks More Than Doubled. Friends called me after 911, frantic, telling me they wanted to sell. It was the first major attack on U.S. soil since Pearl Harbor! Some even had their history a little backwards and were convinced that the Pearl Harbor attack had ushered in the Great Depression. I said, "Hold. After a dramatic shock, the markets typically rebound within six months. If you’re really brave, buy your favorite stock." Between 9.11 and December 31, 2001, NASDAQ gained 35%. The stocks I’d purchased in August of 2001 more than doubled, and I captured those gains in December 2001.
  5. Performance of NASDAQ September of 2001 through February of 2002

    Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)

  6. In October of 2002, NASDAQ hit a low of 1113. Investors were distressed and many sold low in order to be able to sleep at night. I issued reports saying that data supported a rally in 2003 and that October 2002 might be the low. 2003 turned out to be a banner year, particularly for NASDAQ, which earned 50%.

    Performance of NASDAQ October of 2002 through January of 2004



    Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)
  1. In 2005, I said, "Buy Google at the IPO," writing, "Google continues to break the mold, and is committed to continuing that trend, with an unprecedented IPO, which is likely to become one of the most successful IPO's ever." Most pundits pooh-poohed the company. They were still burn-victims of DOT COM and weary of touching the iron again. Others didn’t’ understand it’s revenue potential and particularly hated its "triumvirate" executive structure. Below are links to two articles on Google, which illustrate my rationale versus the popular rationale, which was to avoid the IPO.

    Google: The People's IPO. By Natalie Pace, CEO, NataliePace.com
    Agog Over Google. By Paul Woods, President & CEO of Odyssey Advisors, LLC.

  2. In March of 2007, I issued my first major warning of bankruptcies in the mortgage banks, warning investors to get out of New Century. In May, the company filed for bankruptcy, followed by NovaStar and then a bailout/takeover of Countrywide. Meanwhile, Countrywide was one of April’s "most attractive stocks" according to one of the leading business magazines in the world.
  3. Subprime Time. By Natalie Pace.

  4. In January of 2008, I issued a serious alert to investors writing, "When I tell you that the odds are exceedingly high that you are gambling much if not most of your nest egg, you should take it as a call to action." The Dow was still trading above 13,000. Over the next year, the Dow dropped to a low of 6547, and is still down 25% from its high. Many people waited until the low to take action – locking in their losses. Some people, including a few that I drew my pie chart on a napkin for, followed a blueprint as simple as that and have earned gains (while losing nothing) during the Great Recession. Check out the video blog at the Bill and Nilo link directly below.

    Bill & Nilo Bolden

    Performance of Stock Market October of 2007 through April of 2009



    Source: MoneyCentral.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)

Each of these warnings was early enough to act. If you wait until the headlines are screaming, it’s too late. You are running with the masses, trying to catch a falling knife.

Regardless of whether or not we are "officially" in a "recovery," the fundamental challenges of the American demographics and legacy promises made to the retiring Baby Boomers are not going away soon. What to do? As Joe Moglia says, "No one cares about your money more than you do." So, now that you’re a great income earner, it’s time to learn how to be a great investor, instead of chasing headlines and being a day late and a dollar short.

Now, you might be a bit disconcerted thinking that you don’t have time to get a PhD in economics or you don’t really want to read my updates once a month. But, honestly, when you consider all of the time that is spent worrying about money, watching the daily news for the latest Wall Street disaster, losing more money and then complaining with friends about the injustice of it all, doesn’t attending a 3-day Get Rich and Enrich investing retreat and implementing the strategies seem so much easier and rewarding?

The November 12-14, 2010 Get Rich and Enrich Retreat sold out in just two days. So, if you’re interested in attending the February 5-7, 2011 Retreat, call 866-476-7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com now.

The beauty is that once you are set up properly, your adjustments can be quarterly or semi-annual checkups – slight tweaks to a plan that is already sound. Instead, however, too many Americans are trusting someone else to manage their money without ever realizing that brokerages hire salesmen to service you. And the sales professionals are frustrated because even if they see something coming, they may not be able to act. Most are restricted by the firm they work for and must follow the company recommendations and sales contests. That’s a system that is set up to be a day late and a dollar sorry.

Preparing for a Rise in Interest Rates
While interest rates are likely to remain low for at least a few more months (5-17 months), when they rise, bonds and bond funds will drop in value. Annuities and pensions (for other reasons) might not be the safest areas for your money either. Read, "Don’t Get Fooled Again," in the August 2010 ezine, volume 7, issue 8 and "Bonds, Bond Funds and T-Bills": The Next Disaster in the September 2010 ezine for tips on how to stay safe as the economy moves into the next phase of the recession cycle.

Banks Are Still Failing
There have been 127 bank failures so far in 2010 (as of October 2, 2010), 140 bank failures in 2009 and 25 in 2008. Don’t be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of them are fairy tales.

The Rationale Behind the AIG Bailout
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, AIG had 76 million customer worldwide and over 30 million in the US.  On the website, the bank writes, "Seizure of AIG subsidiaries would likely have put a moratorium on claims and withdrawals, and could have impaired those claims in the longer term. A run on AIG, in the form of a massive cashing in of insurance policies and annuities, would have strained the company’s ability to meet its obligations to millions of policyholders." To read more of the reasons why AIG was bailed out, click on the link below...

The AIG Bailout
Remember exactly how much notice you received that AIG was in trouble before it was bailed out. (None.)
Don’t wait for the headlines. You need a plan that works in any financial storm.

 

About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You Vs. Wall Street and host of the Pace and Prosperity radio show on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. She is a repeat guest on Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV and has contributed to Forbes.com, Sohu.com and BestEverYou.com and Magazine. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her on http://www.facebook.com/pages/NWPace, on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace and on YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM. For more information please visit, http://www.nataliepace.com.

Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.   Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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Beware of Black October.

by Natalie Pace.

Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks Report.

Beware of Black October. By Natalie Pace. Includes my Hot News on Cool Stocks Report.

October 4, 2010

General Stock Market Performance

Monday, 1.2.2008

Monday, 1.2.2009

Monday 1.4.2010

Friday, 10.1.2010

Gains 2-yr, 1-yr & 8 mo.

Dow: 13,044.12

Dow: 9,034.69

Dow: 10,430.69

Dow: 10,829.68

-17% & +20% & +4%

Nasdaq: 2,609.63

Nasdaq: 1,632.21

Nasdaq: 2,294.41

Nasdaq: 2,370.75

-9% & +45% & +3%

S&P: 1,447.16

S&P: 931.80

S&P: 1,115.07

S&P: 1,146.24

-20% & +23% & +3%

Wall Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:

Index

Low

High

Dow Jones Industrial Average

6,547 (3.9.09)

14,164 (10.9.07)

NASDAQ Composite Index

1,114 (10.9.02)

5,060.34 (3.10.00)

Hot News on Cool Stocks Important Data
10X gains on U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ Outscored the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 40% to 15%, in 2009
NASDAQ Outscored Gold in 2009, 40% to 26%
81% of the positions listed in 2008-2010 are in the money. Woo hoo!
Gold returns top stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years… (see below chart)
Real Estate Lost -12.4% in 2009.

Compare those returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills and gold over the last 30 years.

Market Update:
Banks Are Still Failing
There have been 127 bank failures so far in 2010 (as of October 2, 2010), 140 bank failures in 2009 and 25 in 2008. Don’t be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of them are fairy tales.

Are We in a Recovery?
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.org) has declared that the 2007 recession ended on June 2009, however, that doesn’t mean that the economy is racing to recovery. In the statement issued by NBER, the Committee reported, "The committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity." On September 21, 2010, the Federal Open Market Committee released a press release advising, "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months."

Black October
On Black Monday, October 19, 1987, The Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%). The Depression began on Black Thursday, October 24, 1929 and accelerated on Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929, when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed. The worst performing months for the last decade (1999-2009) are October, February, January and June, in that order. Think of taking cover during hurricane season, and remember the former top-performing month of the year (January) is ice cold these days. Read more about seasonal trends in the article, "Spring Rally! How Long Will It Last?" from the April 2010 ezine, volume 7, issue 4.

Why Black October Could Be Black November
The Bush-era tax cuts decision has been postponed for the lame-duck Congressional session, after the November elections. Why could this weigh heavily on Wall Street? Analysts are already telling their clients to take their profits in 2010, in preparation of the worst-case scenario. If the tax cuts lapse, particularly if the capital gains and dividends taxes are raised, there could be a rush of profit-taking, i.e. selling, which lowers the price and the value of the markets.

How Do You Protect Yourself?
You need a diversified plan that works in bull and bear markets. That means you have to:

  1. Have enough safe
  2. Know what safe is (it changes)
  3. Ditch the bailouts
  4. Add in the hot industries (Australia funds gained 80% last year)
  5. Rebalance at least once a year (semi-annually or quarterly are better)
  6. Diversify your assets (with emphasis on hard assets)

Sound complicated? It’s easy as a pie chart. You can learn more by reading You Vs. Wall Street (which is available wherever books are sold). You can ask questions in my Tuesday Night Teleconferences on October 5, 2010 and October 12, 2010 at 6:00 p.m. PT on BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace. You can learn these strategies directly from me in a 3-day investing retreat. Become the architect of your dream life, with a blueprint that will work for the rest of your life.

Get Educated at the Get Rich and Enrich Retreat
Call 866-476-7442 NOW to register to come to the next Get Rich and Enrich Investing Retreat. You spend hundreds of thousands of dollars learning how to earn money (at the university). Spend a fraction of that learning how to invest your money (and make returns while you sleep). The truth is that if you invest 10% and that earns 10% gains, you’ll have more than your annual salary in your Buy My Own Island Plan in just seven years and by year 25, your nest egg will earn a bigger annual salary than you do.

So, turn off the television and come dip your toes in the sand with us in the sunny beach town of Santa Monica, California. You will be glad, for the rest of your life, that you did. Get more info at the home page at NataliePace.com.

The November 12-14, 2010 Get Rich and Enrich Retreat sold out in just two days. So, if you’re interested in attending the February 5-7, 2011 Retreat, call 866-476-7442 or email Heather@NataliePace.com now.

Track Record of our Reporting
While the markets are still down significantly since their high in October of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record – in bear and bull market years. 95 positions listed below – 81% -- have delivered impressive gains over the past two years, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than it was in 2007 (when it cracked through 14,000)! Only twenty-two of our listings went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given the market gyrations of more than 7000 point swings since 2008. FYI: If 2010 tracks the historical trend, the summer doldrums and particularly the Hurricane Season could be hard on the markets.

Remember that the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you’re new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice a year, not trying to market time.)

4 out of 7 Company of the Year selections more than doubled.  My 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware), up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 10X ROI for U.S. Gold, respectively. MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, was a large part of News Corp’s success with shareholders that year.   So five out of seven Company of the Year selections were superperformers. That’s the kind of record that puts you on top on Wall Street.  (I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)

Some of my best picks include: U.S. Gold (UXG) 10X return on investment, Google (GOOG) +585%, Opsware (OPSW) +690%, Rio Tinto (RTP) +145%, Sohu (SOHU) +150%, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +107%, Taser (TASR) up to 9000% gains. Some of the best picks in 2008 and 2009 were put options – on the Cooling Off list -- which is why I added options training to my 3-day Get Rich and Green Investing Retreat. Look on the Cooling Off list for details on the incredible gains options investors enjoyed (and the losses that average investors avoided as a result of being alerted to the problem) on Wells Fargo, Fannie Mae, Toll Brothers, KB Home, Novastar Financial and more.

The NataliePace.com ezine was the first to list the following 911 alerts:

  1. 2008 Recession (Get Safe)
  2. Trim back on Faded Blue Chips in 2006
  3. Get out of Dodge (real estate) in 2005
  4. Google at the IPO! (May 2004)
  5. To get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003

Market Movers:
The Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to ¼ percent." The next FOMC meeting takes place on November 2nd and 3rd, 2010.
Final Estimate GDP growth rates for 1Q 2010 were 1.7% (down from advance results of 2.4%), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1Q 2010 GDP growth was 3.7%.

Advance GDP growth rates for 3Q 2010 will be released on October 29, 2010 at 8:30 a.m. ET. These release days tend to be very active on Wall Street, and the second half of 2010 is expected to be much slower growth than the first half. Ergo, this could be an ugly day. For more BEA release dates, go to the BEA.gov website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar section often.

EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC Information: Interested in reading the press release of the September 21, 2010 FOMC meeting for yourself? You can. The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Click on FOMC, or go to FederalReserve.gov to read! According to the Committee, "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings." In other words, the Feds are buying up U.S. Treasury bills (which otherwise are losing favor on the world marketplace).

The tentative FOMC meeting schedule for the 2010-2011 calendar is: November 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 14 (Tuesday), January 25-26, 2011 (Tuesday-Wednesday), March 15, 2011 (Tuesday), April 26-27, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), June 21-22, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), August 9, 2011 (Tuesday), September 20, 2011 (Tuesday), Nov. 1-2, 2011 (Tues.-Wed.), December 13, 2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.).

2. Calendar Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. You will find great opportunities to attend the most exclusive business and Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and radio shows and other educational opportunities – many are FREE! Get more information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.

Don’t miss the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com. Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen back to any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod casts and are FREE!

BlogTalkRadio offers a Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing questions. Be sure to keep a list of your questions as they come up, and join our ongoing dialog on peace and prosperity, getting rich and enriching, green investing, the Thrive Budget and more on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.

3. Survey Results: Each month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page!

4. Euro interest rates: ECB rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement is scheduled for October 7, 2010 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (October 21, 2010 after that.)

Hot Stocks List
Investors who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com’s article. This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy at all – not even for "pros." If you’ve never traded individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education" money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don’t have mastery over.

Hot News List (highlighted).  Be sure that you are buying low.
Federated Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX)

Profit-Taking:
Hoku Corp. (HOKU) +32%
LDK Solar (LDK) +205%
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +48%
U.S. Gold (UXG) 10X ROI

DELETIONS (Take your profits early and often):
American Superconductor (AMSC)
AOL (AOL)
Blockbuster (BLOKA) 10.1.10
KLA Tencor (KLAC) 10.1.10
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) on 10.1.10

HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS LIST

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when featured

Price

10.1.10

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

Federated Prudent Bear Fund

No

BEARX

$5.26

$5.08

$8.19

$5.05

-3%

The Prudent Bear Fund operates in the opposite direction of the market. When the markets rise, the fund share price decreases. Then the stock market falls, the Bear Fund share price increases in value.

ENER1

No

HEV

$4.33

$3.77

$7.90

$2.75

-13%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact, high performance lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.

 

2Q 2010 earnings on August 5, 2010:

Net sales were $16.1 million in the second quarter of 2010, an increase of 113% over net sales of $7.5 million in the second quarter of 2009.  Net loss was $15.5 million in the second quarter of 2010 compared to $13.0 million in the 2009 second quarter.  

 

Announcements and Highlights:

· Ener1 will be supplying battery packs to Hyundai Heavy Industries for EV bus systems

· June 17, Ener1 signed a memorandum of understanding with the Federal Grid Company of Russia to develop energy storage systems

·May 27, Ener1 agreed to joint-ventures with Wanxiang, the largest auto parts supplier to the Chinese car industry; deal expected to close end of September, 2010

· Automotive production battery pack shipments to THINK began with second quarter sales totaling $3.4 million; Ener1 currently shipping 100 packs a month

· Small cell commercial battery business improved as sales increased $3.8 million over the prior year's quarter

· Ener1 received $24.5 million in grant proceeds from the US Department of Energy related to US plant expansion efforts

Check out EnerDel’s batteries at their YouTube channel.

Hoku Scientific

Hawaii

RISK: HIGH

Yes

HOKU

$8.03

$2.00

(3.2.09)

$2.63

$14.55

$1.90

-67% &

+32%

Read "The Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.

1Q 2010 earnings on 8.5.10:

Revenue for the quarters ended June 30, 2010 and 2009 was $930,000 and $74,000, respectively. Revenues for both periods derived primarily from photovoltaic, or PV, system installation and related service contracts. As of June 30, 2010 deferred revenue of $854,000 was attributable to PV system installations and related service contracts. Net loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, computed in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, was $2.7 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, compared to $905,000, or $0.04 per diluted share, for the same period in fiscal 2010.

"Our higher loss can be attributed to the cost of successfully completing our reactor production demonstration in April," according to Scott Paul, president and CEO, HOKU. "Having completed this critical step in validating our systems, processes and training, we are moving ahead with preparations for our planned production ramp-up and expect to initiate commercial operations this calendar year. To that end, J.H. Kelly has confirmed that it will increase its onsite workforce in Pocatello from the present level of more than 100 workers, up to approximately 300 individuals over the next couple of weeks."

Tianwei New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. has become HOKU’s majority shareholder, and has enabled HOKU to secure nearly $100 million in debt financing, which allowed the company to reduce accounts payable and accrued expenses substantially and resume activities at their polysilicon facility. In early August, Tianwei offered to provide HOKU with additional capital to reach the company’s initial polysilicon production goals for calendar year 2010.

$48.3 million in financing
Hoku received $28.3 million from China Construction Bank on June 1, 2010 and $20 million from China Construction Bank on May 1, 2010. Proceeds are to be used to complete the development and construction of the polysilicon production plant under construction by Hoku's subsidiary, Hoku Materials, Inc., in Pocatello, Idaho.

Kulicke and Soffa Ind.

No

KLIC

$6.72

$6.27

$9.58

$4.03

-7%

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

LDK Solar

GREEN

Yes

LDK

$30.02

$4.94

(3.2.09)

$10.15

$12.15

$4.97

-66% &

+205%

Read the articles, "Green" in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5, issue 4.

LDK is benefitting from lots of press on China’s renewable energy policy.

Announced 2Q 2010 earnings on 8.10.10 at 5:00 p.m. ET (after markets close). Record quarterly revenue of $565.3 million, an increase of 62.7% sequentially and 147.6% year-over- year. Net income was $45.0 million, or $0.36 per diluted ADS for the second quarter.

 

1Q on 5.10.10: revenue was $347.6 million; net income was $7.2 million. LDK Solar ended the first quarter of fiscal 2010 with $347.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and $96.3 million in short-term pledged bank deposits.

"We were very pleased to exceed expectations for the second quarter which reflected the continued improvement in the operating environment for the solar industry and consistent execution by our team," stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar.  "Our business momentum remained strong across key metrics.  We achieved record quarterly revenue, robust growth in wafer shipments, stable ASPs and improved profitability.

MEMC Electronics

No

WFR

$11.99

$11.96

$19.31

$9.19

Flat

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Acquisition of solar developer SunEdison (announced on 10.22.09) should start putting meat on MEMC’s bottom line in 2010. They now enter solar power generation with an A-list company in that field. Recovering after silicon re-pricing completely threw off their profit margins. Better times going forward.

7.29.10 2Q results: Net sales for the quarter were $448.3 million, up 2.4% from $437.7 million in the 2010 first quarter and up 58.5% from $282.9 million in the second quarter of 2009.  Second quarter 2010 results include $30.7 million from the SunEdison business that was acquired in November 2009.  

Gross profit in the quarter was $76.9 million or 17.2% of net sales, an increase of 29.7% from $59.3 million in the 2010 first quarter and 120.3% from $34.9 million in the 2009 second quarter.  

MEMC's net income for the 2010 second quarter was $13.8 million, or $0.06 per share, compared to a net loss of $9.6 million, or $0.04 per share, in the 2010 first quarter and a net income of $1.4 million, or $0.01 per share, in the 2009 second quarter. Results in the 2010 second quarter include a non-cash benefit of $15.5 million, or $0.07 per share, resulting from the closure of the 2006 and 2007 IRS audits, and a non-cash $6.8 million loss, or $0.03 per share, associated with the valuation adjustment of the Suntech warrants.

Sunpower

No

SPWRA

$24.83

$13.07 (7.1.10)

$14.06

$34.00

$10.11

-43% &

+8%

Read "The Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3.

Sunpower panels are the most efficient in the world and have helped countless Solar Decathlon teams win the competition. This year’s #2 and #3 teams (Illinois and California) both used Sunpower panels.

Announced 2Q 2010 earnings on August 10, 2010 at 1:30 p.m. PT (after markets close). Revenue increased to $384 million, from $299 million a year ago, an increase of 28%. Net loss was $6.2 million, but margins increased to 26% from 16.5% a year ago.

"SunPower had a strong second quarter, as our Non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 exceeded our internal plan, and we remain on track to meet our 2010 financial and operating plans," said Tom Werner, SunPower's CEO.  "Our growing pipeline of 2011 Utility and Power Plants (UPP) business bookings, as well as the continued momentum in our Residential and Commercial (R&C) business, adds to our confidence and visibility for 2011.  Additionally, we are pleased with the significant progress we're making on our cost reduction roadmap and expect that our joint venture with AU Optronics (AUO) to accelerate this process." (Announced a joint venture with AUO to operate the 1.4-gigawatt (GW) Fab 3 facility in Malaysia, which will begin solar cell production in the fourth quarter of this year.)

Announced on March 11, 2010 that the company was awarded two grants totaling approximately $1.5 million from the California Solar Initiative Research, Development, Deployment and Demonstration (CSI RD&D) Program.  

 

March 29, 2010: SunPower Corp. acquired SunRay Renewable Energy, a leading European solar power plant developer with offices in Europe and the Middle East.

U.S. Gold

Colorado USA

RISK: VERY HIGH

Company of the Year 2009

Yes

UXG

$5.05

$.50 (10.20.08)

$2.66 (10.09)

$4.98

$5.44

$2.02

Flat &

10X &

+87%

Note: U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company, based in Nevada. U.S. Gold is an exploration company, not a mining company, meaning that if they strike gold, the stock should spike and if they don’t, you could lose your investment. Very risky.

As you can see, U.S. Gold has been a super performer this year. And the news on Forbes.com, TheStreet.com and Motley Fool is starting to heat up. Expect more as Junior Gold Miners capture headlines on strong gains in share price (largely due to the world’s current infatuation with gold).

Began trading on the AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.) Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago Board of Options Exchange on July 19, 2010.

If you believe in this CEO and company, you’ll want to make sure you have shares of U.S. Gold going forward. Gold should be a great hedge against inflation, which is predicted to become an issue once the economy starts to rebound (2010 and forward). Right now, the Feds are still a little concerned about deflation, but inflation could begin on the 12-24 month horizon.

This is an exploration company, not a mining company. They don’t produce gold at this time. However, in a September 2010 interview on TheStreet TV, Rob McEwen said that becoming a gold producer is part of the plan. They have silver reserves in Mexico and gold reserves in Nevada. The most recent exploration updates are in the press release section of the company website at USGold.com.

Listen to my feature interview with CEO and Chairman Rob McEwen on BlogTalkRadio.com. You can review my original Q&A with Rob McEwen and interview on U.S. Gold in Vol. 4, issue 2. (Feb. 2006).

Veeco

No

VECO

$43.30

$31.29

(8.15.10)

$34.23

$54.50

$17.88

-11% &

+9%

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

Recently Deleted Companies 2008-2010:
Echelon +20%, GE, +13% and +18%, Google, +15% and +31%, Johnson & Johnson +10%, LDK Solar +18%, Microsoft +12%, Satcon +13%, Suntech +35%, Trina Solar +22%, World Water & Solar +22%. Genentech (8.1.08) +40%. Altair (deleted on 8.7.08) posted gains of +3% and +57%. Zoltek (deleted on 8.18.08) lost 30% before being removed. LDK Solar was deleted on 9.2.08 with 46% and 29% profits. U.S. Gold profit taking on 11.6.08 amounted to 72% gains. Conergy gains of 51% were taken on 11.7.08. American Superconductor posted 50% gains between 12.1.08 and 1.14.09. MEMC Electronics (WFR) had 21% gains between 12.1.08 and 12.15.08. STP had gains of 69% between 12.1.08 and 1.2.09. SQM profits 20% on 1.14.09. WWAT was deleted on 2.1.09 with -62% losses. On 2.15.09, AMSC had gains of 65%, MEMC Electronics 26%, Sociedad de Quimica y Minera 48% and U.S. Gold 432%. Citigroup gains of 42% on 3.15.09. Genentech was deleted on 3.15.09 with gains of 29%. OSI Pharmaceuticals was deleted on 3.15.09 with 7% gains. Rio Tinto was deleted on 3.27.09 with gains of 67%. On 3.27.09, the following companies were in the money: ALTI (+48%), AMSC (+51%), eBay (+24%), GE (+40%), HOKU (+38%), LDK (+46%), MEMC (+44%), PBW (+35%), SATC (+42%), SQM (+76%), STP (+211%), TSL (+207%), U.S. Gold (+456%) and WBK (+25%). Profit-taking 4.13.09: ALTI +209%, AMSC +70%, HOKU +32%, LDK +64%, PBW +42%, SQM +42%, UXG+418%. Deleted 4.13.09: eBay, +45%, Eurox -11%, GE +47% & -56%, Google +9%, Maxwell +25%, MEMC Electronics -33% & +49%, Microsoft +24%, SATC +67%. STP +262% & -64%, TSL +216% & -67%, Westpac +42% & -22%. Deleted 5.4.09: FMC Corp. with 19% gains. PZD with losses of -39%. SPWRA with 19% gains. TREMX with 50% losses. WSDT with losses of -59%. Deleted 5.15.09: SQM with gains of 38% and 62%. Deleted 5.31.09: EMKR with losses of 13% and 88% and Melco with losses of 8%. Ener1 with gains of 11% and 17%. Deleted 7.20.09: Conergy with losses of -52-98%. Deleted Smith and Nephew on 8.15.09 with gains of 17% and losses of 28%. Deleted the New Zealand dollar currency ETF by Wisdom Tree with 36% gains on 12.12.09. 12.18.09: Deleted Ener1 with 22% gains and Satcon with 29% gains. Deleted 1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10: Galaxy Resources with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21% gains. Deleted 9.13.10: American Superconductor (flat) & AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster busted out in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. Suntech had gains of 48% (and flat).

Recently Deleted from the Hot News list:
American Superconductor on 9.13.10
AOL on 9.13.10
Blockbuster on 10.1.10
KLA Tencor on 10.1.10
Suntech Power Holdings on 10.1.10

American Superconductor

No

AMSC

$30.70

$29.62

$43.73

$8.22

flat

Deleted 9.13.10.

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should benefit from President Obama’s commitment to build a "a new smart grid to carry electricity from coast to coast." In fact, we know that AMSC is specifically on Obama’s mind, even though investors haven’t caught on yet.

1Q 2010 on July 29, 2010: Revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 increased 33 percent to $97.2 million from $73.0 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. Gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 was 40.1 percent, which compares with 30.9 percent for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. AMSC generated net income of $9.2 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2010. This compares with net income of $1.8 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2009.

Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash at June 30, 2010 were $120.7 million. This compares with $155.1 million as of March 31, 2010. The decrease was due primarily to some customer payments shifting from June to July 2010, an increase in capital expenditures in line with the company’s plan and changes in the dollar value of cash held in foreign currencies.

President Obama mentioned American Superconductor by name in his weekly address of Nov. 21, 2009. In the official transcript, it is written: "If we can increase our exports to Asia Pacific nations by just 5%, we can increase the number of American jobs supported by these exports by hundreds of thousands.  This is already happening with businesses like American Superconductor Corporation, an energy technology startup based in Massachusetts that’s been providing wind power and smart grid systems to countries like China, Korea, and India.  By doing so, it’s added more than 100 jobs over the last few years."

AOL

No

AOL

$23.00

$23.11

$27.00

$19.61

Flat

Deleted 9.13.10.

Read "AOL" from Vol. 6, issue 12.

AOL announced 2Q results on Wed. Aug. 4, 2010. $581 million in revenue. Goodwill impairment charge of $1.4 billion. Net loss was $1 billion.

Subscription declines reflect a 25% decline in subscribers year-over-year, while monthly average churn of 2.6% represents a meaningful year-over-year improvement and the lowest level of churn in at least a decade. AOL recorded a goodwill impairment charge of $1,414.4 million in Q2 2010 arising from a GAAP-required interim goodwill impairment test. The underlying drivers of the impairment were a significant increase in net assets due principally to cash provided by continuing operations and a significant deferred tax asset associated with Bebo concurrent with a significant decline in AOL’s stock price since April.

AOL is in the top 10 trafficked sites in the U.S., next to Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Facebook, eBay, News Corp. and Interactive Corp. The new CEO is a former key player in Google’s massive growth. Can the company create money out of traffic?

Blockbuster

Yes

BBI

(BLOKA)

$0.34

$0.08

$1.56

$0.15

-76%

Read "Blockbuster’s Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5. Filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 23, 2010.

KLA Tencor

No

KLAC

$31.67

$35.01

$37.71

$26.69

+11%

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

Suntech Power Holdings

No

STP

$14.26

$9.51 (7.1.10)

$14.06

$49.60

$5.09

Flat &

+48%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer.

2Q 2010 earnings will be reported on August 18, 2010.

Net revenues were $625.1 million representing 6.3% growth sequentially and 94.8% year-over-year. Total PV shipments increased 11.9% sequentially and 181.7% year-over-year. Net loss was $174.9 million.

According to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Chairman and CEO, "We delivered greater shipments to valued customers across Germany and other European markets including Italy, France, Benelux and the Czech Republic. Our investments into our North American expansion continued to bear fruit as we broadened market share and prepared for US-based manufacturing that will commence in the fourth quarter. We also secured supply agreements to several large, high profile projects in emerging markets including Thailand, India and Israel where our globally respected brand, reliable product performance and deep sales channels have provided a solid foundation to form new partnerships."

"Despite successful sales expansion and strong execution during the second quarter, our financial results bear the significant impact of our Shanghai facility restructuring and Shunda Holdings investment impairments. These were necessary adjustments to make, and they have no impact on our core manufacturing operations. Now that they are behind us, we are in a better position to address the growth we are expecting in our core business," Dr. Shi continued.

"With an outlook of ongoing growth in solar demand, we have decided to accelerate the next phase of capacity expansion and now target to achieve 1.8GW of cell and module capacity by the end of 2010. This will enable us to increase our 2010 shipment target from 1.3GW to 1.5GW to help support our growing global portfolio of Suntech customers and drive market share expansion."

Stocks to Watch
Some of these are great companies that we’re thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are stinkers we’re thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List.  Read carefully to identify which is which! Note that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List. Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company. Never pay retail!

Recent Additions:
American Superconductor (AMSC) added 9.13.10
AOL (AOL) added 9.13.10
General Motors (added 9.1.10)
KLA Tencor (KLAC) added 10.1.10
Skype (added 9.1.10)

Recent Deletions:
Federated Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) (moved to Hot List on 9.13.10)
Ford (F) (moved to Cooling Off list on 8.1.10)
Powershares Laddered Treasury (PLW) (moved to Cooling Off list on 9.1.10)

Company NP owns? Symbol Price when featured

Price

10.1.10

Year High

Year Low

Gains since original feature

American Superconductor

No

AMSC

$29.62

$31.46

$43.73

$8.22

+6%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. AMSC should benefit from President Obama’s commitment to build a "a new smart grid to carry electricity from coast to coast." In fact, we know that AMSC is specifically on Obama’s mind, even though investors haven’t caught on yet.

1Q 2010 on July 29, 2010: Revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 increased 33 percent to $97.2 million from $73.0 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. Gross margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 was 40.1 percent, which compares with 30.9 percent for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. AMSC generated net income of $9.2 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, for the first quarter of fiscal 2010. This compares with net income of $1.8 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2009.

Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash at June 30, 2010 were $120.7 million. This compares with $155.1 million as of March 31, 2010. The decrease was due primarily to some customer payments shifting from June to July 2010, an increase in capital expenditures in line with the company’s plan and changes in the dollar value of cash held in foreign currencies.

President Obama mentioned American Superconductor by name in his weekly address of Nov. 21, 2009. In the official transcript, it is written: "If we can increase our exports to Asia Pacific nations by just 5%, we can increase the number of American jobs supported by these exports by hundreds of thousands.  This is already happening with businesses like American Superconductor Corporation, an energy technology startup based in Massachusetts that’s been providing wind power and smart grid systems to countries like China, Korea, and India.  By doing so, it’s added more than 100 jobs over the last few years."

AOL

No

AOL

$23.11

$25.00

$27.00

$19.61

+8%

Read "AOL" from Vol. 6, issue 12.

AOL announced 2Q results on Wed. Aug. 4, 2010. $581 million in revenue. Goodwill impairment charge of $1.4 billion. Net loss was $1 billion.

Subscription declines reflect a 25% decline in subscribers year-over-year, while monthly average churn of 2.6% represents a meaningful year-over-year improvement and the lowest level of churn in at least a decade. AOL recorded a goodwill impairment charge of $1,414.4 million in Q2 2010 arising from a GAAP-required interim goodwill impairment test. The underlying drivers of the impairment were a significant increase in net assets due principally to cash provided by continuing operations and a significant deferred tax asset associated with Bebo concurrent with a significant decline in AOL’s stock price since April.

AOL is in the top 10 trafficked sites in the U.S., next to Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Facebook, eBay, News Corp. and Interactive Corp. The new CEO is a former key player in Google’s massive growth. Can the company create money out of traffic?

Applied Materials

No

AMAT

$11.80

$11.71

$14.94

$11.48

flat

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

Allscripts Misys Healthcare Solutions

No

MDRX

$19.94

$18.10

$17.36

$9.70

-9%

Read "Health Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4. In a press release dated July 27, 2010, Allscripts announced that the company is merging with Eclipsys. As part of the merger, the company is issuing 25 million new shares in a secondary offering that is priced at $16.50/share. (Makes us glad we didn’t put this on the Hot List at $20/share!) Shareholders must approve on August 13, 2010. Framework Agreement was dated June 9, 2010.

Altair Nano-technology

No

ALTI

$1.16

$0.69

$2.94

$0.30

-41%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" Vol. 6, issue 4.

2nd Q earnings on August 5, 2010 at 11 a.m. ET.

For the quarter ended June 30, 2010, Altairnano reported revenues of $1.5 million, up from $(3,000) for the same period in 2009. This increase is the result of higher contract and grant activity with the Office of Naval Research and the Department of Defense compared to 2009 which is expected to continue throughout most of 2010. Sales returns of $183,000 impacted the 2009 results.

Was a contender in the lithium ion battery marketplace a few years back, lost market share, orders and prestige and is trying to re-emerge.

NASDAQ extended 180-days for ALTAIR’s share price to get above $1/share before delisting on June 28, 2010. A resolution was recently passed in the Company's May 2010 Annual and Special Shareholder meeting which authorized the board of directors to execute a reverse stock split in the range of 3:1 to 10:1, so company should execute that and be in compliance soon.

Altairnano's cash and cash equivalents decreased by $4.1 million, from $12.3 million at March 31, 2010 to $8.2 million at June 30, 2010. ltairnano's second quarter cash burn rate of about $1.4 million per month represents an improvement compared to the second half of 2009 and first quarter of 2010. "We are focusing closely on our cash consumption and have taken a number of steps such as implementation of a hiring freeze, slowing material purchases, and deferring capital expenditures to reduce our monthly burn rate, until anticipated orders close," according to CEO Terry Copeland.

 

  • Signed a new long-term purchase and supply agreement with Proterra Inc., and began manufacturing for the initial order to supply battery modules through June 2011, valued at $4.6 million.
  • Signed Memorandum of Understanding to supply a 1 MW ALTI-ESS system to the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute / University of Hawaii to demonstrate wind farm integration with Hawaii Electric Light Company. Project funded by the Office of Naval Research.
  • Completed the sale of our AlSher joint venture interest to Sherwin-Williams and exited the performance materials market.
  • Established an At the Market financing vehicle through Thomas Weisel Partners.
  • Received shareholder approval subject to the discretion of the Board prior to October 28, 2010 to change the Company's corporate jurisdiction from Canada to the state of Nevada.

iShares Australia Index

No

EWA

$20.34

$23.99

$25.14

$15.40

+18%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

Big Lots

No

BIG

$30.28

$33.44

$41.42

$19.49

+9%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6.

Canadian Imperial Bank

RISK: Medium

No

CM

$65.88

$73.03

$108.79

$30.64

+11%

Refer to the "Banking on Iraqi Dinars" article in volume 5, issue 2 for details. Financial markets are under duress. Avoid most banks for now. Canada’s banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009; Australia was #2.

Citigroup

RISK: HIGH

No

C

$2.26

$4.09

$5.43

$2.55

+81%

One of the troubled, bailed out banks…

7.16.10: 2Q2010 earnings. Citigroup Inc. today reported second quarter 2010 net income of $2.7 billion or $0.09 per diluted share, on revenues of $22.1 billion, marking a second consecutive profitable quarter. Citigroup earned $7.1 billion of net income in the first six months of 2010.

Revenues declined $3.4 billion and net income was down $1.7 billion from the first quarter of 2010, largely as a result of lower Securities and Banking and Special Asset Pool revenues.

It’s important to remember that we don’t really have a clue how deep and wide the losses at these bailed out banks are. Most of this is still hidden and the Feds are not releasing the info, nor are the banks…

CREE

No

CREE

$70.83

$53.49

$83.38

$31.12

-24%

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company – at a better price (near 52-week low).

eBay

No

EBAY

$16.80

$24.46

$32.10

$9.91

+46%

Etail should perform better than retail in the recession, but eBay is priced higher than I’d want to pay in a vulnerable "jobless" recovery.

Eldorado Gold

No

EGO

$10.56

$18.45

$18.62

$7.65

+80%

Read "Investing in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9.

2Q 2010 results on 7.26.10:

Eldorado reported net income of $60.5 million or $0.11 per share for the period and the Company generated $92.3 million in cash from operating activities before changes in non-cash working capital.

EGO sold 172,826 ounces of gold at an average price of $1,195 per ounce resulting in a 99% increase in sales over the second quarter of 2009 when the company sold 86,453 ounces of gold at an average price of $927 per ounce.

Eldorado is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively growing businesses in Brazil China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. We are one of the lowest cost pure gold producers.

iShares Emerging Markets Index

No

EEM

$39.58

$45.43

$46.66

$30.30

+15%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Index

No

EMB

$104.63

$111.00

$108.18

$92.42

+6%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

First Solar

No

FSLR

$144.76

$147.23

$163.32

$98.71

+2%

See "Solar Springs Up Again," article in Vol. 5, iss 4.

First Solar joined S&P500 on 10.02.09.

First Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable energy. This was a huge competitive advantage when silicon was hard to get at a reasonable price. That is shifting, however, for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn’t as abundant or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details. They still list CdTe as the semiconductor of choice on their website, citing old data from 2004 that this is a good strategy. Be forewarned!

FMC Corp.

No

FMC

$51.36

$67.83

$65.80

$46.25

+32%

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?," from Vol. 7, issue 2.

2Q 2010 earnings announced on 7.28.10: FMC Corporation FMC today reported net income of $65.7 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2010, versus net income of $69.3 million, or $0.94 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2009.  Net income in the current quarter included restructuring and other income and charges of $28.2 million after-tax. Second quarter revenue of $776.8 million was 11 percent higher than $700.3 million in the prior year. Revenue in Specialty Chemicals was $214.6 million, up 11 percent versus the year-ago quarter led by a robust demand recovery in lithium primaries and higher volumes and selling prices in BioPolymer.  

FMC is the real winner of the stimulus package because they supply lithium to the battery makers. On the other hand, that is not all that this company manufactures, and sales were off in 2009. Waiting for a better buy-in point.

Galaxy Resources

RISK: HIGH

(off the boards, thinly traded)

No

GALXF

$1.17

$1.23

$1.92

$0.79

+5%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and China. Traded off the boards in the US, but is listed on the Australia Stock Exchange. Milestones for the extraction plant in Australia and the lithium processing plant in China are on schedule. Looking good. You can read an update on Milestones on the Galaxy Resources website. The markets could take the share price lower still, but Galaxy has two strong components – Australia-based company in an emerging market – lithium.

General Motors

No

NA

IPO

IPO

NA

--

Read "High Debt," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9.

Google

No

GOOG

$393.69

$525.62

$629.51

$433.63

+34%

See Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu Your Heroes." Be careful not to buy in too high.

Announced 2Q results on July 15.

Google reported revenues of $6.82 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, an increase of 24% compared to the second quarter of 2009. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs (TAC). In the second quarter of 2010, TAC totaled $1.73 billion, or 26% of advertising revenues. GAAP net income in the second quarter of 2010 was $1.84 billion, compared to $1.48 billion in the second quarter of 2009.

Cash – As of June 30, 2010, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities were $30.1 billion compared to $26.5 billion at March 31, 2010.

The increase in our cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities balance included cash collateral of $2.9 billion that we received in connection with our securities lending program, partially offset by $1.1 billion of tax payments and $704 million of shares repurchased related to the AdMob acquisition.

 

In addition, our Board of Directors has authorized debt financings of up to $3 billion through the issuance of commercial paper. In conjunction with this program, we established a $3 billion revolving credit facility. Net proceeds from the commercial paper program will be used for general corporate purposes. No amounts under either program were outstanding as of June 30, 2010.

Headcount – On a worldwide basis, Google employed 21,805 full-time employees as of June 30, 2010, up from 20,621 full-time employees as of March 31, 2010.

Green Dot

No

GDOT

$41.14

$48.85

$47.98

$41.13

+19%

Read "IPO of the Year" from Vol. 7, issue 3.

 

Tough to launch an IPO in late July, during the summer doldrums, but Green Dot managed to pull it off. This is a high growth industry, but Wal-Mart, notorious for squeezing their suppliers, is their biggest customer. Also, as we head into hurricane season, share price is vulnerable.

KLA Tencor

No

KLAC

$35.01

$35.01

$37.71

$26.69

--

Read "LED Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 8.

iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund

No

ILF

$43.92

$51.05

$50.25

$30.74

+16%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

Orocobre

No

OROCF

$1.70

$1.99

$2.72

$0.99

+17%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2. This play is Australian lithium company with a Toyota deal. Began trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) in June of 2010.

iShares MSCI All Peru Index Fund

No

EPU

$34.69

$43.27

$35.95

$27.19

+25%

Read "Hot Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF

No

PBW

$9.78

$9.84

$11.95

$4.00

Flat

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.

Rio Tinto

No

RTP

$54.60

$59.83

$62.24

$36.35

+10%

Gold, copper and other commodities mining. Based out of UK. Mines worldwide, but focused greatly in Australia. Annual general meeting is May 26, 2010 in Melbourne, Victoria. 4:1 stock split took place on April 30, 2010.

Ross Stores

No

ROST

$35.90

$55.02

$58.93

$34.74

+53%

Read "Discount Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have been impressive, especially given the "jobless recovery."

Skype

No

NA

IPO

IPO

NA

--

Read "High Debt Vs. High Risk," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 9.

Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile

No

SQM

$36.36

$48.08

$43.93

$30.70

+32%

This is a great company that manufactures silicon for the solar and IT industry. Looking for a better buy-in, after we get through the current down-trending volatility.

Read the article, "Treasure Hunting," in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium," from Vol. 6, issue 4. SQM announced on Sept. 30, 2009 that prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will be reduced by approximately 20% from current levels for the renewal of all its supply contracts. The purpose is to accelerate demand recovery, create incentives for research of new lithium uses, and contribute to the sustainable long-term development of the lithium market.

2Q on August 31, 2010. Revenues totaled US$865.3 million for the first six months, representing an increase of 29.5% over the US$668.4 million reported in the same period of 2009. The Company also announced a year-over-year earnings increase of 22.4% for the second quarter of 2010, reporting quarterly net income of US$105.0 million (US$0.40 per ADR) compared to the 2009 figure of US$85.8 million (US$0.33 per ADR).

April 14, 2010: Announced a 5.5% bond due in 2020 ($250 million to be raised). Must be an institutional investor in the US to qualify. For more info:

Patricio Vargas, 56-2-4252485 / patricio.vargas@sqm.com
Mary Laverty, 56-2-4252074 / mary.laverty@sqm.com

Businesses include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium.

Sohu (Chinese Co. ADR)

Beijing, China

Small Cap

RISK: MEDIUM

No

SOHU

$46.54

$57.73

$72.29

$41.02

+24%

See NataliePace.com ezines, Vol. 3, issue 4 and Vol. 2, issue 9 for feature articles on Sohu. Dr. Charles Zhang, the Chairman and CEO of Sohu.com, is one of our CEOs of the year in 2007. Read the articles in Vol. 4, issue 1. You can watch a Q&A with Dr. Charles Zhang in an exclusive interview I did on the Forbes.com Video Network.

iShares S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors

No

IGW

$45.93

$47.26

$54.00

$14.03

+3%

Read "LED Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8.

Tesla

No

TSLA

$17.00

$20.60

$30.42

$14.98

+20%

Read "Tesla Trades on NASDAQ" from Vol. 7, issue 7.

Should you buy now? Very volatile stock. Also, production is just now starting on the new lower-priced sedan. It’s at a former Toyota factory, which places a lot of ducks in a row, however, ramping up for production is something that can be wrought with delays and other unexpected kinks. Combine that with summer doldrums and hurricane season and watching/waiting is what we’re doing for now.

Tidewater

No

TDW

$41.81

$43.97

$57.08

$37.99

Flat

Read "Clean Up" from Vol. 7, issue 6.

Tidewater was the hero of the BP oil spill. Thanks to the rapid response of Capt. Alwin Landry and his crew of 12, the loss of life on April 20, 2010 was limited to 11. 115 workers were rescued, cared for and shipped 110 miles to dry land. Tidewater’s share price has taken a hit as a result of having losses from "seized assets" and unpaid accounts receivable in Venezuela and a fine/agreement involving a SEC investigation into U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Tidewater Inc. provides offshore supply vessels and marine support services to the offshore energy industry (including oil rigs and offshore oil drilling).

1Q 2011 earnings on 8.5.10: $263 million in revenue, with net earnings of $40 million. Earnings were down with a large hit on a one-time charge of losses related to seized assets and the nonpayment of outstanding accounts receivable by Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), the Venezuelan national oil company.

Put this on the Hot List before 2Q earnings are announced in Nov?

Trina Solar Ltd.

No

TSL

$35.12

$29.46

$31.18

$11.70

-16%

Read "The Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. Please note that TSL had a 2 for 1 stock split on 1.20.10. That is why the price looks dramatically different. Investors will note that they should now have twice as many shares…

 

2Q earnings on 8.24.10 at 8 a.m. ET (before markets open). Net revenues were $370.8 million, an increase of 10.1% sequentially and 147.2% year-over-year. Net income was $38.7 million, which includes a net foreign currency exchange loss of $29.2 million, compared to net income of $44.5 million in the first quarter of 2010.

Westpac

No

WBK

$73.54

$112.07

$133.55

$68.75

+53%

Issued it’s half-year results on May 8, 2010. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.

Net profit of $2,875 million, up 32% from a year ago.

Cooling Off Stocks List(may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go DOWN in price.)

Highlighted Companies (Cooling Off List):
Amazon (AMZN) on 9.13.10
Baidu (BIDU) on 10.1.10
Netflix (NFLX) on 9.13.10
Priceline (PCLN) on 10.1.10
Taubman Centers (TCO) on 9.13.10
Transocean (RIG) on 10.1.10
VMWare (VMW) on 9.13.10

DELETIONS:
Fortress Group (FIG) deleted on 9.1.10
Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) deleted on 9.1.10
Medtronic (MDT) deleted on 9.1.10
MGM Mirage (MGM) deleted on 9.13.10
Microsoft (MSFT) deleted on 9.1.10

Company

NP owns?

Symbol

Price when added to Cooling Off List

Price

10.1.10

52-week High

52-week Low

Gains/Loss

Amazon

No

AMZN

$121.00

$153.71

$151.09

$75.41

+27%

Read the article "The High Cost of Cheap Tech Products," from Vol. 7, issue 7.

American Express

Yes

AXP

$16.98

$41.56

(11.16.09)

$41.78

$49.19

$22.00

+246% &

flat

2Q 2010 earnings announced on July 22, 2010. Net income of $1 billion, up from $337 million a year ago. Revenue: 8.6 billion. Debt and liabilities of $130 billion (over 2X market value)

Read the article "American Express," from Vol. 6, issue 2.

Apple Computer

No

AAPL

$132.07

$268.75

(7.1.10)

$282.52

$279.01

$136.32

+214% &

+5%

See archived ezine Vol. 4, issue 2, for the feature article, "Apple Chips." Also read, "The High Cost of Cheap Goods," in the July 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 7.

3Q 2010 earnings on 7.20.10 were amazing:

 

Record revenue of $15.7 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.25 billion, or $3.51 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $9.73 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.83 billion, or $2.01 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.1 percent compared to 40.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 52 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of 3.27 million.

"It was a phenomenal quarter that exceeded our expectations all around, including the most successful product launch in Apple’s history with iPhone 4," said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. "iPad is off to a terrific start, more people are buying Macs than ever before, and we have amazing new products still to come this year."

Cash: $9.7 billion. No debt.

Baidu

No

BIDU

$18.32

$84.79

(8.1.10)

$98.80

$88.32

$31.65

539% &

+17%

Leading Chinese website for search (similar to Google). 135 P/E is high for a revenue stream so tied to advertising (during a global recession). (Advertising revenue models tend to suffer greatly in recessions and Google’s P/E is only 23, by comparison, right now.)

The primary Risk Factor for Baidu is: We derive revenues primarily from online marketing services, which accounted for 98.9%, 99.8% and 99.9% of our total revenues in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.

10 for one stock split on 5.12.10.

Berkshire Hathaway

No

BRK.A

$97,000

$123,977 (2.12.10)

$123,914

$125,252

$84,600

+28% &

flat

See archived ezine Vol. 6, issue 8, for the feature article, "The Oracle Turns 80."

Added to the S&P500 on February 12, 2010. BRK.B did an unprecedented thing. Buffett made the stock affordable, by splitting it 50:1. Anyone can now buy in the $45-$78 range. Many tout triumph, but they may not be aware of the exposure that BRK has to financial giants, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and American Express, among other challenging industries (including insurance).

Capital One Financial

No

COF

$22.29

$43.35

(7.11.09)

$39.30

$47.73

$29.98

+76% &

-9%

Read the articles "IPO of the Year," and "American Express," from Vol. 7, issue 3 and Vol. 6, issue 2. COF has a lot of liabilities that are highlighted in the Stock Report Card of the IPO of the Year article from volume 7, issue 3. If you read the SEC filings and realize how much COF has off the books, how much money they’ve had to take from the Feds and much liability they may have for mortgages that second parties want them to be responsible for, you’ll know why COF is on the Cooling Off List. Additionally, S&P rating is BBB with negative outlook (as of the May 2010 earnings report).

2Q Earnings 8.9.10: net income of $608 million, compared to a loss of $277 a year ago. Dividend of twenty cents (annualized) compared to 86 cents a year ago. Total liabilities amount to $172 billion (against assts of $197 billion).

COF affiliates originated and sold an aggregate of approximately $121.9 billion original principal balance of mortgage loans between 2005 and 2008, of which they believe they may have repayment exposure of $26 billion. There is ongoing litigation with regard to this.

Ford Motor Company

No

F

$12.91

$12.26

$14.57

$4.71

-5%

Read "How Cap and Trade Saved Ford" from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive, but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler and GM are present here – with one exception. Ford built cars that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest).

Intel

RISK: LOW

No

INTC

$16.66

$20.25 (9.1.09)

$19.32

$25.29

$12.06

+16% &

-4%

Intel is a great blue chip. But we are still in a challenging year.

Netflix

No

NFLX

$103.98

$132.26

(8.15.10)

$154.66

$127.96

$36.25

+49% &

+17%

Read "Blockbuster’s Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5.

Priceline

No

PCLN

$337.82

$337.82

$358.24

$154.12

--

Read the article "The Priceline Negotiator," from Vol. 7, issue 10.

Sears Holding

Yes

SHLD

$52.93

$98.06

(1.11.10)

$69.72

$125.42

$59.21

+32% &

-29%

Chairman Eddie Lampert has been dumping shares en masse, to the tune of over $376 million. Consensus insider selling…

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, issue 12) and the "Discount Designer Stores" article (Vol. 5, issue 6). Sears is one of the largest, oldest retail chains in the U.S, and formerly, was as American as baseball and apple pie. These days, however, Sears is more of a hedge fund, which might help to explain why you’ve been trying to get that appliance repaired (under warranty) for months or been waiting for a replacement for your coffee pot for so long that you’ve taken up drinking tea. Almost all of the board directors at Sears are in the investment business, not the retail business. In fact, board director Emily Scott, a TV station founder, is the only person on the board without significant investment experience. No one on the Sears board has any experience at all in retail.

Still don’t have an official CEO. Bruce Johnson has been the interim CEO and president since January of 2008, which is not just "weird" it’s a BIG FAT RED FLAG! The former CFO Miles Reidy decided late in 2008 that he needed to spend more time with his family rather than to put is name on the 2008 annual report. Another big red flag. A few C-level executives at Sears are also employed by Chairman Eddie Lampert for his investment company.

2Q earnings on 8.19.10: Net loss attributable to Holdings' shareholders for the quarter of $39 million, or $0.35 loss per diluted share, in 2010 and $94 million, or $0.79 loss per diluted share, in 2009. Total revenues decreased $93 million to $10.5 billion for the quarter ended July 31, 2010, as compared to total revenues of $10.6 billion for the quarter ended August 1, 2009.  The decline in total revenue for the quarter was primarily a result of a 2.2% decrease in domestic comparable store sales and the effect of having fewer Kmart and Sears Full-line stores in operation, partially offset by an increase of $96 million due to changes in the Canadian foreign exchange rate.

 

Cash = $1.2 billion at July 31, 2010 (approximately $500 million domestic and $700 million at Sears Canada), $1.3 billion at August 1, 2009 and $1.7 billion at January 30, 2010.  Significant uses of our cash during the first half of 2010 include $560 million for the purchase of additional interest in Sears Canada, $273 million for share repurchases, repayments of long-term debt of $228 million, capital expenditures of $168 million, and contributions to our pension and post-retirement benefit plans of $122 million. These uses of cash were funded in part by an increase in short-term borrowings of $893 million.

Total debt (consisting of short-term borrowings, long-term debt and capital lease obligations) was $3.2 billion at July 31, 2010. $16 billion in total liabilities. (Sears market value is $6.86 billion). The SEC filing includes this risk disclaimer. "We are subject to various other legal and governmental proceedings, many involving litigation incidental to our businesses. Some matters contain class action allegations, environmental and asbestos exposure allegations and other consumer-based claims, each of which may seek compensatory, punitive or treble damage claims (potentially in large amounts), as well as other types of relief."

In the "hedge fund" side biz of Sears, please note that: Our Board of Directors has delegated authority to direct investment of our surplus cash to Edward S. Lampert, subject to various limitations that have been or may be from time to time adopted by the Board of Directors and/or the Finance Committee of the Board of Directors. Hmm. Didn’t know that a company with this much debt had surplus cash…

Taubman Centers REIT

No

TCO

$24.74

$41.10

(6.15.10)

$44.41

$45.00

$21.85

+80% &

+8%

Read the article, "Global Recession," from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.

2Q on 7.28.10:

Revenue of $154 million, with $56 million coming from "expense recovery." Net income was $18.4 million with $7.4 million "attributed to shareholders."

"We're pleased with the results for the quarter, which we believe bodes well for the full year," said Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Taubman Centers.  "Our net operating income excluding lease cancellation revenue was nearly even with last year and our bankruptcies remained very low for the quarter.  Although we remain cautious, we are seeing signs of the economic recovery."

Consensus insider selling.

Time Warner

No

TWX

$24.44

$31.78

(9.11.10)

$30.61

$50.70

$17.81

+25% &

-4%

Read the article, "Hulu Your Heroes," from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.

 

Reports 2Q earnings on 8.4.10.

Revenues grew 8% from the same period in 2009 to $6.4 billion. As of June 30, 2010, Net Debt increased to $12.3 billion from $11.5 billion at the end of 2009, due mainly to share repurchases and dividends, as well as investment and acquisition spending, offset by the generation of Free Cash Flow. Net Income was $562 million compared to Net Income in the second quarter of 2009 of $524 million.

 

Conan O’Brien will host a late-night talk show on TBS beginning Nov. 8, 2010. Could this take TBS to a whole new level?

Toyota Motor Company

No

TM

$77.05 (2.12.10)

$71.80

$91.97

$51.79

-7%

Read "Should You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2 and "One Very Hot IPO" from Vol. 7, issue 9.

Transocean

No

RIG

$56.77

$64.35

$94.88

$41.88

+13%

For more information, read the article, "Clean Up," from June 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 6.

PowerShares Treasury Bill Index Fund

No

PLW

$30.02

$29.77

$30.02

$26.30

Flat

Read "Don’t Get Fooled Again," from Vol. 7, issue 8. When interest rates rise, bonds and bond funds fall in value. Time to find another "safe" place for your assets.

VMWare

No

VMW

$70.58

$79.25 (8.1.10)

$85.51

$79.94

$25.27

+21% &

+8%

Read "Health Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4. P/E of 114.86.

Wells Fargo

No

WFC

$20.05

$29.21

(10.15.09)

$25.56

$44.69

$7.80

+28% &

-12%

2Q 2010 earnings call on July 21, 2010. WFC reported Net income of $3.06 billion, up 20 percent, or $515 million, from prior quarter. Net income was $3.06 billion for second quarter 2010 compared with $2.55 billion in first quarter 2010 and $3.17 billion in second quarter 2009. Total funding sources (i.e. liabilities) amount to at least $1 trillion.

 

"Having long supported a legal and regulatory environment that promotes consumer protections, financial reporting transparency and clarity, as well as prudent risk management, we support the general principles inherent in the financial reform bill, as they are consistent with how Wells Fargo operates. As this new chapter in financial services begins, we will remain true to our time-tested business model by deepening customer relationships, cross selling our array of financial products, increasing the number of accounts and providing superior customer service." Wells Fargo Chairman and CEO John Stumpf.

 

I can’t tell you how many people I know who haven’t paid their mortgage in six months (or longer) but are still in their homes. Bank earnings statements right now are the biggest fairy tales ever told. Additionally, WFC credit card holders report getting charged 29.9% interest rates, while overdraft class action lawsuits against WFC continue to mount their defense.

See "Wells Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings" in Vol, 5, issue 9, and "Wells Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12. Annual report will be issued at the end of Feb. 2010.

Wells Fargo Chairman takes early retirement:

Dick Kovacevich stepped down as chairman and a director at the end of 2009.

Wynn Resorts

No

WYNN

$95.42

$87.09

$176.14

$18.06

-9%

Check out the article, "(No) Viva Las Vegas" in Vol. 5, issue 10.

Watch Steve Wynn discuss Washington, Macau, Vegas, his new Beach Club at Wynn Encore (Las Vegas) and the future of America on CNBC, from a May 28, 2010 interview.

2Q earnings on 7.29.10: Net revenues for the second quarter of 2010 were $1.0 billion, compared to $723.3 million in the second quarter of 2009, driven by a 74.1% increase in net revenues at Wynn Macau. Net income was $52.4 million, compared to net income of $25.5 million a year ago. Wynn Resorts also announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend for the quarter of $0.25 per common share. This dividend will be payable on August 26, 2010 to stockholders of record on August 12, 2010.

Our total cash balances at June 30, 2010 were $1.9 billion. Total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $3.2 billion, including approximately $2.5 billion of Wynn Las Vegas debt and $681 million of Wynn Macau debt.

Yahoo

No

YHOO

$15.00

$14.27

$19.12

$13.52

-5%

Read the "AOL" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Yahoo from December 2009.

Deleted in 2008/2009/2010:
Fannie Mae was deleted on 2.11.08 after losing -50% and -56% of its share price value, and then again on 7.1.08, after losing another -40%. (Both puts more than doubled.) Novastar Financial (NFI) was deleted on 6.2.08 with -95% share price implosion. Sears Holding Corp. was deleted on 7.1.08 with 64% gains on the put option. Wells Fargo was deleted on 7.1.08 with 83% gains on the put. Apple was deleted on 8.1.08 with 35% gains on the put. The Google put, deleted on 8.1.08, was another great performer, with over 50% gains. First Solar had gains of over 32-34%. Mentor was deleted on 9.30.08 with 75% gains on the put option (-17% on the share price); Medicis was deleted with gains of over 37% on the share price (down direction). Boston Properties, Las Vegas Sands and Macerich were deleted on 10.9.08 with gains of 16-30%, 66% and 28-42% respectively. Wells Fargo was deleted on 11.6.08 with 35-50% gains on the put and again on 12.1.08 for 50-70% gains. American Express posted 35% gains in just 30 days, between 2.1.09 and 3.2.09. First Solar was deleted on 8.13.09 with 33% gains. KB Home with 74% gains and Toll Brothers with 51% gains on 10.01.09. Deleted AMAT on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be double or more). 8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%), MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT (-20%) -- all for gains. Deleted MGM 9.13.10 for 61% gains.

Fortress Investment Group

No

FIG

$3.57

$5.37 (8.13.09)

$3.23

$8.30

$1.02

-10% &

-40%

Deleted on 8.30.10.

2Q results on Aug. 5: GAAP net loss, excluding principals agreement compensation, of $14 million. GAAP net loss of $251 million (including principals’ paychecks).

:

"We delivered solid results in a quarter marked by extremely challenging market dynamics, with strong momentum in capital raising, stable management fees and continued recognition of incentive income," stated Daniel H. Mudd, Chief Executive Officer. "Equally important, we continued to grow and diversify our business, while capitalizing on historically attractive opportunities to deploy capital on our partners’ behalf. We’ve been opportunistic in a market that continues to align with the core strengths of Fortress."

Daniel H. Mudd, currently member of the Fortress board of directors, became the firm's new CEO effective August 11, 2009. George W. Wellde has been elected to Fortress' Board of Directors.

Read the articles, "Cherry Picking the Cherry Bombs" (Vol. 5, issue 12) and "Money Grows on Wisdom Trees," from Vol. 4, issue 3.

On 9.22.09: dividend was canceled by Board.

Maxwell Labs

No

MXWL

$18.05

$11.39

$21.81

$4.50

-37%

Deleted on 8.30.10.

Read "Life Begins with (Li) Lithium" from Vol. 6, issue 4.

2Q earnings on 7.30.10: revenue of $29.6 million for its second quarter ended June 30, 2010, up 19 percent over the $24.8 million recorded in the same period in 2009.  BOOSTCAP® ultracapacitor revenue increased by 48 percent, to $15.9 million in Q210, compared with $10.7 million for the same period last year.   Sales of high voltage capacitor and microelectronics products totaled $13.7 million in Q210, down 2 percent from the $14.0 million recorded in Q209. operating loss for the second quarter 2010 was $3.3 million, compared with an operating loss of $0.9 million in the same period last year. GAAP net loss for Q210 was $2.6 million or $0.10 per share, compared with a net loss of $5.3 million, or $0.22 per share, in Q209.

Has made settlement offers to the SEC ($6.35 million) and DOJ (also for $6.35 million), but the offers haven’t been accepted officially (or paid) yet.

Cash and restricted cash totaled $28 million as of June 30, 2010, compared with $37.6 million as of December 31, 2009.

$44 million in debt, with $8 million due in short-term borrowings, and $36 million owed on accounts payable and employee compensation. (Uh oh!) (No mention of this in the earnings press release. Check the SEC earnings report for more details.)

Medtronic

No

MDT

$33.35

$42.44

(2.12.10)

$32.06

$46.10

$24.06

-4% &

-24%

Deleted on 8.30.10.

Medtronic’s Infuse Bone Graft product has been at the center of the debate of some controversial deaths, and has investigated by a Congressional Panel, the Justice Department, the SEC and other national, state and local governance officials for issues related to the use of this product and others. Read the earnings report for a complete list of the complaints and current status. The company reports that on August 21, 2009, the Department of Justice decided not to intervene at this time but may intervene at any time for good cause based upon a Court Order entered on August 28, 2009.

MGM Mirage

No

MGM

$26.79

$10.34

$16.66

$5.10

-61%

Deleted September 13, 2010.

Get more information in Vol. 5, issue 10 in the "(No) Viva Las Vegas" article.

MGM is being deleted because the IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange will fill its coffers with cash. The company is still fundamentally flawed and debt-laden, suffering from losses in hotel revenue, casino and table winnings and real estate values, while at the same time being over-leveraged and having to borrow from Peng to pay Paul. Nonetheless, the public will not be privy to these facts by and large. I still encourage investors to avoid this stock, but if you have any put positions, better to take profits now than wait for the world to catch up to your facts and knowledge. Could take awhile.

2Q on 8.3.10: Net revenue improved sequentially to $1.54 billion from $1.46 billion in the first quarter of 2010; Operating loss for the second quarter of 2010 was $1.0 billion (which included the $1.12 billion impairment of the Company’s investment in CityCenter and the Company’s $29 million share of the CityCenter residential impairment charge) compared to operating income of $131 million in the 2009 quarter.  

Debt is a big issue with MGM. Check the SEC filing. At June 30, 2010, the Company had approximately $13.3 billion of indebtedness (with a carrying value of $13.0 billion), including $3.2 billion of borrowings outstanding under its senior credit facility.  The Company has approximately $1.5 billion in available borrowing capacity under its revolver and approximately $570 million of invested cash available for future liquidity needs. Another $3 billion is owed in back taxes and other obligations.

Microsoft

No

MSFT

$29.64

$23.71

$31.58

$22.73

-20%

Deleted on 8.30.10.

Read the "AOL" article from Vol. 6, issue 12 to review the Stock Report Card on Microsoft from December 2009.

Great blue chip (certainly better than Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG and GM were), if you buy at the right price. Good profit margins. Low debt. Loads of cash. Revenue seems to be coming back. But, headwinds of the marketplace will likely continue now, with hurricane season upon us.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.

Investors should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.


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NataliePace.com Calendar:

Want to get started investing? Join us for Free Tuesday Night Teleconferences.

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The NataliePace.com Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats, educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.  Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.

To access links to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar section at NataliePace.com.

Easy as a Pie Chart FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, October 5th, 2010
6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
Modern Portfolio Theory, avoiding Bailouts, adding Hot Industries and annual rebalancing works wonderfully in bull and bear markets. Sound complicated? It's easy as a pie chart. Learn how.

Money While You Sleep FREE Teleconference
Tuesday, October 12th, 2010
6:00PM through 6:30PM PT
The great thing about investing is that it's money while you sleep, once you set it up properly. Apply the blue print and set up bi-annual appointments to ensure that you are always well-balanced, always have enough safe, have avoided the bailouts, are taking profits, getting in on what's hot and capturing your gains!

Solar Power International 2010, LA, CA
Tuesday, October 12th, 2010
Learn about the latest information concerning markets, technology, finance, policy and jobs in the solar industry in this 3-day conference.

CA State of the State Conference, Beverly Hills
Tuesday, October 19th, 2010
Join state government officials, CEOs, investment bankers and other major mover-shakers in CA as they activate and invent ideas to revitalize California's debt-laden economy.

Day Without a Drink (of petroleum) #4
Thursday, October 21st, 2010
Can you go a day without any gas, plastic or other petroleum products? Up the octane with prayer, fasting, meditation etc. from sundown on the 20th to sundown on the 21st. Blog on Facebook at Facebook.com/NWPace.

Get Rich and Enrich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
October 22-24, 2010

You spend hundreds of thousands learning how to earn money. Why not spend a fraction of that learning how to invest? 3 days in a board room setting, learning investing directly from Natalie Pace, sets you up for life. THE NOVEMBER RETREAT SOLD OUT IN JUST TWO DAYS. Call 866-476-7442 to register NOW for this retreat (before it sells out, too).

Ways Women Lead Conference in Sofia, Bulgaria
Sunday, October 24th, 2010
This Ways Women Lead conference is committed to helping empower women and girls to achieve life-long learning, conscious leadership development, and to strengthen the global women's movement. Women, men and youth from around the world are invited to attend.

The Women's Conference, Long Beach, CA
Sunday, October 24th, 2010
California First Lady Maria Shriver hosts a 3-day celebration for transformation, where women are encouraged to be architects of change. Speakers include Oprah, Laila Ali, Mary J. Blige, Deepak Chopra, Diane Sawyer, Caroline Kennedy, Laura and Lisa Ling

FOMC Meeting
November 2-3, 2010
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting November 2-3, 2010.

NC Gov's Conference for Women. Raleigh, NC
Tuesday, November 9th, 2010
Gov. Beverly Eaves Perdue, NC's first woman governor, will speak, as will Jean Chatzky and Sapphire, the author of Push (the book upon which the film Precious was made).

Veterans Day
Thursday, November 11th, 2010

Green Business Conference, SF, CA
Thursday, November 11th, 2010
Whether you are an established green business visionary or just starting your journey to sustainability, you'll find the Green Business Conference an exceptional opportunity to partner with business leaders who share your values, your challenges, and your enthusiasm.

Get Rich and Enrich Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
November 12-14, 2010
You spend hundreds of thousands learning how to earn money. Why not spend a fraction of that learning how to invest? 3 days in a board room setting, learning investing directly from Natalie Pace, sets you up for life. THIS RETREAT SOLD OUT IN JUST TWO DAYS. Call 866-476-7442 to register for the next retreat.

Clean Tech Open, Bay Area, CA
Wednesday, November 17th, 2010
View the hundreds of technology exhibits, vote for your favorite Ideas Competition finalist, watch the Business Competition finalist demos, hear the nationally-recognized speakers, and BE THERE for the National Winner announcement.

Greenbuild Conference, Chicago, IL
Wednesday, November 17th, 2010
Together, we will define what the future looks like in cities and towns around the world.

Special Economic Report
Wednesday, December 1st, 2010
The national due date of the special report from the Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.

FOMC Meeting
Tuesday, December 14th, 2010
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine Federal Reserve policy in the U.S.

Winter Solstice
Tuesday, December 21st, 2010
Celebrate the winter season, when the Earth is tipped farthest away from the Sun. Ski! Sled! Snowboard! Snow angels
!



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