TO
ACCESS A PRINTABLE COPY OF THIS NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE.

Vol.
8 Issue 10, October 1st, 2011
Send
comments and suggestions or get more information at
info@NataliePace.com
QUOTE
OF THE MONTH:
"Above everything, what unites us is that we want to find unity
and we want to find agreement about changes that need to occur
in our society in order for it to be more equitable, in order
for it to be more just, in order for it to be more participatory,
and more artistic and more beautiful. We all want to find consensus
and agreement on that. We're in it for the long haul. We're going
to do it together. We're going to remain peaceful. We're going
to remain strong. We're going to remain organized and fun and
exciting. And we want you to join us."
Justin Wedes
Speaking to Natalie Pace on September 21, 2011
Day Five of the Occupy Wall Street Encampment
Occupy Wall Street at Liberty Plaza (Zuccotti Park) in NYC
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Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car Again?
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes
Electric
Car Battery Makers Stock Report Card.
Electric vehicles
and bikes are two of the most dynamic growth industries in the world
today. The U.S. is projected to sell four million EVs annually by
2030 (source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance), and China vows to have
500,000 EVs on the road by 2015 and five million by 2020. China
has developed strong policy incentives to achieve that, including
restrictions for non EV-drivers in certain mega-cities, like Beijing,
Cash for Clunkers, tax incentives and more. Yet, last week, House
Republicans were trying to kill the electric car (again) by wiping
out the funding to The Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing
(ATVM) program.
Whether you
are making the case for economic growth, for putting more money
in people's pocket, for national security, for energy independence
or for saving soldier's lives, electric cars are part of the solution.
The Navy will cut their petroleum use in their non-tactical fleet
(commercial vehicle fleet) by 50 percent by 2015. By 2020, half
of the energy used by the Navy will come from alternative sources
and half of the installations will be net zero energy. Why? According
to Thomas
Hicks, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for
the U.S. Navy, who spoke to me at the Clinton
Global Initiative, "For every 50 fuel convoys, we have
one American killed or wounded. For us, that's just too high a price
to pay for fuel."
It's also a
matter of price. Just as the spike in gas prices has drained the
consumer's spending power, it has also added billion in fuel expenses
to the Navy's budget this year. At today's gas prices, the Nissan
Leaf more than pays for itself versus the equivalent gas-guzzler.
Albert Cheung, of Bloomberg's New Energy Finance, issued a report
on April 6, 2011 that shows the payback of the Leaf begins when
the price of gas is $2.80 or more per gallon. When gas is above
$4.00/gallon, Leaf owners are saving $4,000 or more over the lifetime
of the vehicle.

Most city commuters
are driving within a one-charge range and can recharge at night.
Gas stations can (eventually) dispense electricity as easily as
gas for road trips.
This is still
a young industry, and as we've done with every nascent product from
oil to the Internet, it requires an investment of time, talent and
money. You can see from the Electric
Car Stock Report Car that none of the electric car battery
makers are profitable -- yet. That means that emailing your Senators
and Representative
to keep the R&D dollars flowing into electric cars is key. An
investment in cleaner cars during the R&D period will help the
best companies turn the corner into cash positive operations.
Politics, high
R&D costs, cuts to government spending and the expense of ramping
up new factories aren't all of the headwinds that the EV industry
faces. Over the next two years, supply is projected to exceed demand,
according to Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, an energy-smart technologies
analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Demand for lithium-ion
batteries will increase 7X over the next two years, up to 18GWh,
while the supply is projected to be almost double of that need,
at 35GWh. This means that it is very likely we'll see at least one
EV battery maker fail over the next four years (or before).
So, which company,
if any, is your best investment bet? "In the short term the
larger, mainly Asian, conglomerates can cope with limited demand
and compete by lowering prices, but smaller pure-play battery makers
will be left vying for an increasingly limited number of supply
contracts. For the latter group, other applications such as grid-scale
energy storage will be a critical source of demand," according
to Izadi-Najafabadi.
Only one-fourth
of the 20 lithium-ion battery manufacturers have secured long-term
contracts with automakers, according to Bloomberg NEF. Tesla has
Toyota. Ener1 has Volvo and Wanxiang Group Corporation (a Chinese
company that makes EVs and also powers the State Grid -- the largest
power supplier in China). BYD (which is partially owned by Berkshire
Hathaway) powers their EVs with their own batteries. South Korean
battery maker LG Chem will fuel the Chevy Volt, while A123 Battery
(an American company) will provide batteries for other General Motors
cars. Johnson Controls-Saft has partnered with Ford.
One way of
predicting which companies will fly and which will fail is to look
at the board of the company. Not surprisingly, the two electric
car battery makers on the Stocks Report Card with the strongest
sales growth (in dollars) are also the two companies with the strongest
management teams. ENER1 has directors from General Motors, Advanced
Micro Devices and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Kenneth
Baker, another ENER1 board director, was the first Chairman of the
United States Advanced Battery Consortium, the public/private partnership
that has partially funded EnerDel's lithium-ion battery development.
Tesla's executive team includes key executives from Ford, PayPal,
Mazda, GM, Apple and Toyota.
While ENER1
is the company investors have the least faith in at this moment,
China Bak Battery is the company that has seen sales fall off by
19% in the last quarter, versus a year ago. Altair Nanotech, with
just $8 million in sales, compared to $89 million at ENER1 and $175
million at Tesla Motors, continues to struggle and lag the competition.
Altair hired a new president/CEO and CFO effective September 22,
2011. This is the second time in three years that Altair has tossed
its executive team out.
The root of
ENER1's problems stem from the company's investment in the Think
EV. Think hasn't sold well and recently become an accounting issue
for ENER1. Earnings will have to be reinstated. ENER1's share price
is in the penny stock range, and the whole mess cost CEO and chairman
Charles Gassenheimer his job. Gassenheimer resigned on September
27, 2011, handing his CEO spot to ENER1 president (and former AMD
executive) Chris Cowager. Thomas J. Snyder, an ENER1 board director,
became the non-executive chairman.
The ENER1 senior
notes have been restructured and ENER1's $15 million line of credit
has been extended through July of 2013. At the time of the restructuring
on September 12, 2011, Gassenheimer said in a statement, "Through
our industry-leading technology, business pipeline and investor
commitment, we believe that we will maintain our position as a significant
player in energy storage for electric utilities, transportation
and industrial applications in the U.S. and around the world. We
look forward to providing more details on our financial position
and business opportunities once the restatement of our financial
statements is completed." Brian Sinderson, ENER1's director of corporate
communications, advised me by email that ENER1 is in a quiet period
until after they restate their financial statements. ENER1 has not
released the date of when that will occur, however, the clock is
ticking because NASDAQ could delist ENER1 on October 17, 2011 if
an acceptable plan for regaining compliance with NASDAQ is not in
place.
These are volatile
times for a very young industry. Electric Vehicles dodged a bullet
when the Senate voted down the House's disaster relief spending
bill, which proposed scrapping The Advanced Technology Vehicles
Manufacturing (ATVM) program. However, the hand has been shown,
and you can expect this topic to become heated debate (again) in
the months to come, as more government spending must be slashed.
Thus, any investment in electric vehicles comes with high risk and
a potential for losses, as investors in ENER1 know all to well.
Still, if the
political maze is navigated and the JVs that ENER1 is involved in
are fruitful, then the company has a bright future as a leader in
the crowded race of powering electric vehicles and a cleaner power
grid. (Note the number of "if's" in that sentence.) Tesla Motors
is one of the strongest U.S. companies in the EV and lithium-ion
battery industry space. I added Tesla to my Hot Stocks List today,
and I highlighted ENER1 on the Hot List with a share price of just
14 cents.
Full Disclosure:
I own shares in ENER1.
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie
Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As
a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million
for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her
on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
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Maryland
Wins, but Sunpower Scores.
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes
a Solar
Panel Stock Report Card.
Rapid innovation
in a nascent industry always has its share of blowups. However,
the cost of not investing in innovation is even higher. Imagine
a world without Google, smart phones, washing machines or electricity!
Which is why it is important to realize that the Solyndra bankruptcy
is simply part of the progress toward becoming cleaner, greener
and more energy independent -- and a small part of the progress
at that.
The Solyndra
loan, at $528 million, is just 1.3% of the $39 billion in DOE loans.
So why is Solyndra 100% of the debate?
This week,
the Department of Energy hosted the Solar
Decathlon -- an event where eight out of 19 student-led
teams achieved net-zero energy, generating more energy than they
consumed. Sunpower Solar, a U.S. based company, powered half of
those net-zero homes and boasts the highest energy efficiency of
any solar panel in the world. In the 2005, 2007 and 2009 Solar Decathlons,
winners were powered by SunPower, and in the 2009 event, the top
three finishers used SunPower panels.
Purdue University,
powered by Sunpower panels, won second place in the 2011 Decathlon.
Maryland University, the winner of the 2011 Solar Decathlon used
Sanyo solar panels, but installed eight more panels than Purdue
(42 to 36), in order to remain competitive in the energy contests.
Maryland narrowly beat the Purdue team with what the judges believed
was better architecture and market appeal. Purdue's home scored
neck in neck with all of the energy-related categories and was more
affordable than Maryland's.
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| Exterior
architectural photograph of Maryland's entry in the U.S. Department
of Energy Solar Decathlon 2011, Washington D.C., Sept. 30, 2011.
(Credit: Jim Tetro/U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon). |
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| Exterior
architectural photograph of Purdue University's entry in the
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Decathlon 2011, Washington D.C.,
Sept. 30, 2011. (Credit: Jim Tetro/U.S. Department of Energy
Solar Decathlon) |
Solyndra has
shuttered its doors, but solar is still on fire worldwide. Europe,
particularly Germany, has led the world in solar energy generation
for the past decade. China's new investments make it the top spender
on clean energy in the world today. China recently introduced a
national feed-in tariff to bring more solar and wind into the power
grid.
In the U.S.,
the military is one of clean energy's top advocates. "For us, this
is an energy and a national security issue," according to Thomas
Hicks, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for
the U.S. Navy, who spoke to me at the Clinton
Global Initiative. According to Hicks, clean energy
promotes energy independence, national security, saves lives and
will eventually even cost less. "What we're seeing in terms of solar
and wind are competitive rates over long-term contracts. The cost
of power from a solar farm or wind farm is no different than what
we might get from traditional power," according to Hicks. (Did you
know the Navy has had a 270 MW geothermal plant in California and
has been selling back 200 MW of power to the grid?)
As you can
see from the Solar
Stock Report Card, the leading solar panel manufacturers
are still seeing robust earnings growth -- even in these tough economic
times. Sunpower sales are up 54% year over year, with similar revenue
growth at Trina Solar and Suntech Power (both Chinese companies).
While the silicon
solar manufacturers are enjoying more sales this year, sales for
First Solar were down 9% in the most recent quarter. This is something
I projected would happen a few years ago, as the price of silicon
became competitive. First Solar uses thin film technology and cadmium
telluride, a trace mineral that is far less efficient than silicon.
For more information on the silicon versus cadmium telluride debate,
read, "Spring
Springs Up Again," from my April 2008 ezine, volume
5, issue 4.
The challenge
for the solar industry is to continue to innovate and invest heavily
into R&D, manufacturing and brand positioning, while cutting
costs and getting back to more healthy profit margins. Trina is
in the best shape on that front at this time, however, Suntech's
investments into vertical integration -- including silicon manufacturing
and ingots needed for the panels -- may pay off going forward. And
Sunpower remains the leader in power, efficiency and aesthetic appeal.
The sad truth
is that despite worldwide demand for solar, investors are getting
burned. Last week was a tough week for all clean energy companies.
Solar companies are trading at less than half the price they were
at the beginning of the month.
Yet, the price
of not investing in our future is too high. Too many are misinformed
about the affordability, the efficacy and even the success rates
of clean energy. Solyndra stole headlines away from the Solar Decathlon,
and as long as Solyndra is the only story, solar will suffer. However,
when the truth about solar has its turn in the spotlight, the future
will be very bright.
I highlighted
Trina, Sunpower and Suntech on the Hot Stocks List today. These
are all companies with sales that are double and triple their market
value, and have low price to earnings ratios. (Trina and Suntech
were in the 1.50 range today.)
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As
a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million
for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her
on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
The
High Price of Gas (in Lives).
by Natalie
Pace.
Business 101
teaches us that failure is valuable to business. The Apple computer
and the IBM PC rose out of the ashes of the Osborne computer bankruptcy.
The colossal failure of eToys didn't stop Amazon from becoming the
most successful retailer on the planet. Dot Coms collapsed in 2000,
but Apple is worth $353 billion today. And even as Solyndra solar
failed, Sunpower Solar remains a worldwide leader in power output,
with sales that are almost double what they were two years ago.
As talking
heads kick the Solyndra scandal around to score political goals,
as if it's the only green company worth discussing, there are corporations,
countries and individuals that are using green products to increase
economic growth, save lives, cut costs, create jobs, increase national
security and reduce pollution.
Economic
Growth
Having a leading solar panel manufacturer, like Sunpower and others,
at a time when China is investing multi-billions in clean energy
could be key to U.S. economic growth. A report by The Pew Charitable
Trusts states that China has developed the world's most aggressive
strategic plan for clean energy adoption. China became the worldwide
leader in clean energy with $34.6 billion in investments in 2009.
China vows to have 500,000 electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles
on the road by 2015 and five million by 2020. The government is
employing tax incentives, Cash
for Clunkers, feed-in
tariffs and government
spending to promote the adoption of electric vehicles,
next generation information technology, energy efficient products
and renewable energy. According to Yang Jiechi, the minister of
foreign affairs, People's Republic of China, who spoke at the Clinton
Global Initiative's annual meeting on Sept. 21, "It is very
important to build environmentally friendly mechanisms. We have
spent a lot of capital on hybrid cars and electric cars."
Focusing on
fuel efficiency made Toyota Motors the No. 1 automaker in the world.
U.S. automakers like Tesla
Motors, General
Motors and Ford
are banking on having a strong EV presence going forward -- with
the Chinese market directly in their sights. Is this the time to
cut funding to The Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM)
program?
Health
In cities like Beijing, Los Angeles, New York and even Las Vegas,
it's not just a question of being on the right side of global warming.
It's a question of reducing pollution and cutting down on respiratory
illnesses.
Saving
Lives
Oil prices are sky high, but the cost of fuel in lives is even higher.
According to Thomas
Hicks, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for
the U.S. Navy, who spoke to me at CGI,
"For every 50 fuel convoys, we have one American killed or wounded.
For us, that's just too high a price to pay for fuel." Bringing
fuel into "the theatre" means sending convoys from Pakistani ports
through insurgents and IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) to Afghanistan.
To reduce the
risk and save lives, Ray Mabus, the secretary of the Navy, has outlined
five
energy goals, namely:
1. Incorporating
"green" evaluation factors when awarding contracts
2. Sailing the "Great Green Fleet"
3. Reducing petroleum use in non-tactical vehicles
4. Increasing alternative energy ashore
5. Increasing alternative energy use department-wide
The Navy will
cut their petroleum use in their non-tactical fleet (commercial
vehicle fleet) by 50 percent by 2015. By 2020, half of the energy
used by the Navy will come from alternative sources and half of
the installations will be net zero energy. And to ensure that these
goals are met, Mabus
just launched a new dedicated energy masters degree program. "Through
the masters program and the executive energy series, [Naval Postgraduate
School] will ensure that energy is fully integrated," said Mabus.
"As a result, NPS students will guide the Navy and the nation toward
a better, more secure energy future."
Is
alternative energy reliable enough for our national defense?
Tom Hicks advised me that the U.S. has a 270 MW geothermal plant
in California that we have been operating for 20 some odd years.
"Most people don't know about it," Hicks told me. "It's enough power
to power the base in China Lake, but also to provide 200 MW of power
to the grid," he said.
National
Security
The spike in oil prices during the Arab Spring sank the average
American's budget, but it had a similar affect on our defense budgets
(and any business involved in transportation as well). Based on
June oil prices, fuel costs will increase by a billion dollars to
the Navy this year, according to Hicks. "That impacts our flying
hours, our steaming hours, our ability to sail our ships and to
fly our planes," Hicks warns -- making energy independence a national
security priority.
Creating
Jobs
One of the most important pieces of going green is energy efficiency
-- something old buildings are very deficient in. The Better
Buildings Initiative, a policy that U.S. Department
of Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced at CGI America in June
of this year, will upgrade the energy efficiency in up to 300 million
square feet of office space -- from military housing to college
campuses. According to President Obama, who spoke at CGI
in New York City on Wednesday, Sept. 21, this will "create jobs,
while saving billions for businesses in energy bills, and cut down
on our pollution." It also trains out-of-work constructions workers
-- who make up one of the largest
unemployed industries in the U.S., at 11.3 percent in August
of 2011 -- to have new skills that are valuable for 21st century
construction jobs.
Cutting
Costs
In his speech at CGI, Obama also told the crowd, "The CEO of Southwest
Airlines estimates that if we put in the new generation of GPS air
traffic control, we would save 15 percent in fuel costs. Think about
what that would do overall for the cost of the ticket... Maybe they
could start giving out peanuts again." Indeed the cost of fuel is
not peanuts to the airline industry. Fuel costs were over $3.6 billion
in 2010 for Southwest Airlines.
Energy
Independence
Companies, countries and individuals alike suffer when the price
of energy is the most expensive budget line item -- and can be increased
significantly at the drop of a hat by countries that are not friendly
to American interests. Innovation, research and development and
even failures are all part of the solutions needed for the many
challenges that America, and the world, face today. With trillions
being spent worldwide on solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels, electric
vehicles and other clean energy products, continuing the U.S. commitment
to R&D, private enterprise, public policy and consumer incentives
is an investment in economic growth, national security, saving lives
and a better world.
There are many
successful clean energy projects and companies that are as news
and water-cooler worthy as the one green company that failed.
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As
a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million
for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her
on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
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"Gold"
Stocks—Some Investments Mine Your Pocketbook.
A FINRA.org
Investor Alert.
 |
| The 1933
Double Eagle $20 Gold Coin Lady Liberty holds a torch and olive
branch, backed by a glory Designed by Augustus Saint-Gauden
in 1907 |
The price of
gold bullion—which recently touched an all-time high—has sparked
considerable interest in gold investing, not to mention aggressive
marketing and advertising of gold investments, including gold stocks.
And even a cursory Internet search will pull up numerous websites,
blog posts, investment newsletters and social media posts (including
YouTube videos and Tweets) devoted to the topic of investing in
gold.
But some of
the stocks and opportunities being promoted have precious little
value, and others are outright frauds. This spring, for example,
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took three
separate actions against precious metals firms engaged
in various schemes involving investments in gold, silver and other
precious metals. In one action, the CFTC charged a precious metals
firm in Florida with running a boiler room fraud that bilked investors
out of more than $23 million.
As with other
commodities, there are prudent and not-so-prudent ways to invest
in gold. We are issuing this Alert to warn investors about investment
scams that promote the latest "hot" gold stock and to provide information
on how to invest wisely in gold.
Spotting
"Gold" Stock Scams
Many
gold-related investment scams involve the stocks of gold mining
and/or exploration companies. The stock value is often based on
gold reserves that are difficult to estimate, much less verify.
While stock promoters regularly cite the potential value of a gold
reserve, some statements can be deliberately misleading. For example,
in 2010, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
took legal action against a mining company based in Florida for
false press releases and other misleading statements associated,
in part, with a mining project in Ecuador. The releases claimed
the gold reserves were worth more than $1 billion. The SEC noted
that the exact value of those reserves could not be known "without
further detailed exploration."
Warning signs
related to gold stocks include:
- Price
targets or predictions of swift and exponential growth. These
predictions often are based on gold reserves, the actual existence
and true size of which are next to impossible to verify. A company
recently claimed that its mine in Nevada contained "approximately
2.14 million ounces of gold equivalent resources," with an
estimated market value of over $2 billion. Based on these reserves,
the company touted in one of its promotions that an investment
"Could turn $10,000 into $384,600."
- References
to being a "buyout target" for other mining companies.
One company claiming gold reserves valued at more than $112 billion
declared in an Internet promotion that it was a "PRIME BUYOUT
TARGET" at a buyout price that was 15 to 35 times its current
value, which was around a dollar.
- Claims
that tie stock performance to the general rise in gold prices.
Stock prices tend to rise or fall for a host of reasons, such
as overall market conditions, sector performance and an individual
company’s earnings. A rise in gold prices does not guarantee
a rise in the price of a gold company’s stock—there might be little
or no correlation between these two things.
- Scare
tactics such as the threat of inflation or an economic meltdown. While
some investors might hold gold as a hedge against inflation or
economic uncertainty, owning a gold stock does not automatically
serve that same function. Scare tactics are often used to
push an investor to make a quick decision.
- Speculative
claims based on a new reserve’s proximity to an existing reserve.
A company recently stated in one of its promotional materials
that its mining property could be worth "billions in unrecovered
gold" based "on the success of its neighbors." Without
more information, such an assertion amounts to little more than
idle speculation.
- A change
in the company's name or trading symbol to align it more closely
with gold. One company that currently purports to engage in
gold mining and exploration was originally incorporated with a
business strategy to provide golfing opportunities on private
courses to nonmembers. Another’s original focus was to establish
health spas in urban areas. Yet another cited its original business
plan was to develop, manufacture and sell commercial feed to nurture
the Chinese mitten-handed crab. Name changes are reported through
SEC Form 8-K, which you can find by using the SEC's
EDGAR database.
Fool’s
Gold for Lunch
Be wary of "free lunch" programs that purport to provide
educational information about gold investing. In June 2010, the
SEC
charged six individuals with running a Ponzi scheme that bilked
more than 3,000 investors out of $300 million. The fraudsters, none
of whom were registered to sell securities, claimed to represent
an independent financial education firm that had discovered a way
to earn up to 36 percent annual returns by investing in mining investments
that were "fully collateralized by gold." Rather than
invest the money, the firm’s salesmen used the assets on lavish
home renovations, mortgage payments for members of their extended
family and the purchase of a luxury fishing resort in South America.
In addition,
be mindful of warning signs common to many stock scams:
- Claims that
making profits in gold are "easy."
- The use
of headlines from respected financial news sources regarding gold,
which can easily be taken out of context.
- Mention
of the names of major investors or investment institutions that
provide an air of credibility.
- Statements
about how much easier it is for lower-priced stocks to skyrocket
in value in comparison to higher-priced stocks.
- Pressure
to invest immediately.
Smart
Tips
To avoid potential gold stock scams:
- Investigate
before you invest. Never rely solely on information you receive
in an unsolicited fax or email. It's easy for companies or their
promoters to make exaggerated claims about new products, lucrative
contracts, or the company's revenue, profits, or future stock
price. Be wary of claims about significant mineral reserves or
mining operations in countries far removed from the U.S. that
make it difficult to verify such claims through independent research.
- Always
ask: "Why me?" Why would a total stranger tell you about a
really great investment opportunity? The answer is that there
is no such opportunity. In many email, fax and online scams, those
who tout the stock are corporate insiders, paid promoters or substantial
shareholders who stand to profit handsomely if the company's stock
price goes up.
- Read
a company's SEC filings, if available. Most public companies
file reports with the SEC. Check the SEC's EDGAR database to find
out whether the company files with the SEC. Read the reports and
verify any information you have heard about the company. But remember
that just because a company has registered its securities or has
filed reports with the SEC, it doesn't mean that it will be a
good investment.
Alternatives
to Gold Stocks
While
you may be tempted to invest in a single stock, it is very risky
to put all your "golden eggs" in one basket. Investing
through a mutual fund or exchange traded fund (ETF) that focuses
on gold companies or gold itself can help spread out and potentially
lower your risk. Take the time to research
fees and other expenses. Review the underlying securities
that make up a given fund. You can do so by going to the issuer’s
website, reviewing the latest quarterly report showing the fund’s
major holdings or, in the case of an ETF, the exchange on which
the ETF trades. Research the fund's manager or management team and
read the prospectus carefully, and consider enlisting the help of
an investment professional before you invest.
If you are
considering a mutual fund that focuses on gold, be aware that most
gold mutual funds primarily hold mining stocks, many of which are
international, but some hold physical gold, as well. Mutual funds
do not allow investors to take possession of physical gold.
If you are
considering investing in an ETF that focuses on gold, understand
its structure, including whether it uses futures strategies—and
whether or not it holds the physical gold, invests in gold futures
contracts or tracks a gold-related index. Be aware that ETFs that
are backed by physical gold are not the same thing as a direct investment
in gold. While some ETFs that are backed by physical gold allow
individual investors to redeem shares for bullion, the ones that
do may only allow physical redemptions under certain limited circumstances. So
while they may be effective at offering exposure to gold prices,
most are not an efficient way to obtain an ownership interest in
physical gold. Therefore, if you are investing in a physical
gold ETF, make sure you understand your redemption rights. Depending
on its legal structure, a gold commodity ETF can be subject to varying
tax treatments. Be sure to check with your tax advisor about the
consequences of investing in a gold commodity ETF.
If you are
thinking about investing directly in bullion or gold coins, similarly
research your options. For a basic how-to overview, questions to
ask and additional resources, read the Federal Trade Commission’s
Investing in Bullion
and Bullion Coins. Investors should be aware that while
some gold promoters and dealers deliver what they promise, others
don’t. Also, verify that a ready market exists to liquidate
personal holdings of bullion and coins at current market prices
and the related transaction costs.
Finally, be
advised that while legitimate gold and ETF investments may be an
acceptable diversification strategy, these investments can be quite
volatile. A heavy concentration of gold investments can leave you
overly exposed and at risk of losing a substantial percentage of
your money.
Touts and outright
scams come in many forms and involve many types of investments.
Right now, you would do well to avoid unsolicited promotions of
low-cost "gold" stocks. They are likely to mine a hole in your pocketbook.
Additional
Resources
Investor
Alert, Stock Spams and Scams
FINRA
BrokerCheck
Commodity
Futures Trading Commission Litigation Release, CFTC
Charges Florida Firm, American Precious Metals, LLC and Principals,
Sammy J. Goldman and Harry Robert Tanner, Jr., with Fraud.
Commodity
Futures Trading Commission Fraud Advisory, Precious Metals Fraud
SEC
Litigation Release, SEC
Brings Action Against Purported Florida Mining Company and its President
for Fraud
SEC Release, SEC
Charges Perpetrators of $300 Million Ponzi Scheme Involving Purported
Gold Mining Investments
Federal Trade Commission Consumer Alert, Investing
in Bullion and Bullion Coins
Federal Trade Commission Consumer Alert, Investing
in Gold? What's the Rush?
To receive
the latest Investor Alerts and other important investor information
sign
up for Investor News.
About
FINRA
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), is the largest
independent regulator for all securities firms doing business in
the United States. All told, FINRA oversees nearly 4,800 brokerage
firms, about 170,400 branch offices and approximately 643,000 registered
securities representatives.
FINRA believes
investor protection begins with education. Using the Internet, the
media and public forums, we help investors build their financial
knowledge and provide them with essential tools to better understand
the markets and basic principles of saving and investing.
|
|
The
Fed Twists and the Market Turns.
by Liz
Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist,
Charles Schwab
& Co., Inc.
September
22, 2011
 |
| Liz Ann
Sonders. |
Key points
- The Federal
Reserve announced "Operation Twist," which was largely expected,
but did little to calm markets.
- The goal
is to further reduce borrowing costs and push money via lending
out into the real economy.
- Whether
it will work is the big question … because high interest rates
are not the economy's problem.
(The bulk of
the article below was penned immediately after the Fed's announcement
of "Operation Twist" on September 21, but the following 11 paragraphs
add fresh perspective on the recent market action.)
Stocks, commodities and even gold prices tanked the day after the
Federal Open Market Committee's latest policy meeting concluded,
adding fuel to the notion that the confidence crisis is reaching
new heights. Often the goal of a Fed that's easing monetary policy
is to stir up animal spirits, but instead its move and more pessimistic
outlook only added to the lack of confidence about the future health
of the economy.
Adding to the woes is the continued meltdown in the eurozone, leading
investors to exit all forms of risk and head to the safety of cash
and US Treasuries. This has spurred a rally in the US dollar, which,
given the recent inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks,
has also exacerbated the market sell-off (in commodities, too).
In short, the market is coming to the realization that there’s only
so much the Fed can do.
Not helping matters were comments from Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO,
speaking at an event in Washington, DC today: He suggested that
the world was on the eve of the next financial crisis with sovereign
debt its epicenter, and that the European Central Bank hasn’t put
in place a "circuit breaker" to contain the region’s debt crisis.
This has been our concern for some time now as well, believing a
default by Greece is inevitable. Michelle Gibley and I addressed
the eurozone crisis in our report last week titled "The
End of the Line."
Lending some credence to the view that the eurozone crisis has become
the market's biggest driver is an analysis of daily trading activity.
Based on a study by Birinyi Associates, for the first seven months
of this year the primary focus of the US stock market appeared to
be the domestic economy, but since August attention has shifted
toward foreign concerns.
Through July, the first half hour of trading—when US markets are
often reacting to overnight trading in foreign markets—had little
effect on the overall returns of the S&P 500. However, since
the end of July, if you exclude the first half hour of trading from
the S&P 500's return, the market would be 9% higher than it
is now, suggesting the market has become more reactionary to global
events and trading.
Even an on-the-surface strong reading in the leading economic indicators
out today didn't ease concerns. Although the LEI was up more than
expected, it was driven by the wide yield spread and rising money
supply. Both of these financial indicators may be less relevant
to growth than in the past: Indeed, every recession in the past
60 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve (when short-term
interest rates are higher than long-term rates); but with short
rates pegged at zero, that’s not going to happen. As for money supply,
it's been boosted by fear and lack of confidence as investors of
every variety have sold riskier assets in favor of cash holdings—not
presently a positive sign.
The strong LEI but weak market action is characteristic of what
still remains a somewhat mixed set of indicators. Corporate profits
have remained healthy, though earnings estimates have been trending
lower. Industrial production and durable goods orders have remained
healthy. But macro concerns have taken precedence over some micro
positives. And weaker manufacturing growth reported in China yesterday
only added fuel to the global slowdown fire.
Finally, there may be another government shutdown pending given
the inability to pass a stopgap budget measure that would keep the
government running into next month. Just what markets didn’t need
is further lack of confidence in political leadership in Washington
DC.
We’ve received a lot of questions about the likelihood of a
double-dip recession and what the stock market's saying about the
economy. As we've often noted, the risk of another recession is
certainly elevated, but it's not yet conclusive. Part of why we
think another official recession might be avoided is actually not
great news: Many segments of the economy, including small business
and housing, never came out of the 2007-2009 recession to begin
with, so they may not drop from recent levels sufficiently enough
to hurl the economy into another official contraction.
Recessions are defined as sharp declines in activity, but the rebound
from the last recession was relatively anemic, suggesting that a
sharp decline from these levels is less of a risk. In addition,
historically there's not much difference between the depth of a
cyclical bear market that's accompanied by a recession and
one that isn't followed by a recession.
More troubling is the potentially unique relationship we're seeing
between stocks and the economy. Normally the stock market is a discounting
mechanism, and its weakness could indeed be sending a message about
future economic growth. But the stock market has also become a catalyst,
and its weakness (and the attendant weakness in confidence) could
actually be the trigger for another recession … the "self-fulfilling
prophecy" concept possibly in play about which we've written and
spoken, most recently in the latest Schwab
Market Perspective.
(Post-Fed
meeting comments from September 21):
No doubt in reaction to the significant weakening of the economy
over the past several months, the Federal Reserve acted as expected
and announced what's known as "Operation Twist" (OT). The goal of
this program, first instituted in 1961 and indeed named after the
dance popular at the time, is to lengthen the average maturity of
the Fed's balance sheet. The result, ostensibly, will be to lower
longer-term borrowing rates, including mortgage rates.
The details
Specifically, the Fed will buy $400 billion of US Treasury bonds
with maturities of six to 30 years through next June. Over the same
span, the Fed will sell an equal amount of shorter-term Treasuries,
with maturities of three years and less. The Fed also announced
that it will reinvest maturing mortgage debt into mortgage-backed
securities (MBS) instead of Treasuries. This is intended to help
reduce mortgage borrowing costs and stimulate additional mortgage
refinancings and demand for new mortgages.
Over the past three months, the value of government agency securities
and mortgages on the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by nearly
$40 billion, and the move to reinvest into MBS is to prevent a shrinking
of its balance sheet.
My office is adjacent to that of Kathy Jones, our fixed income strategist.
We listened to the announcement together, and she had this to say:
"The only surprise was that the Fed will shift nearly 30% of its
$400 billion in bond holdings into 30-year Treasuries, which is
more than most thought would occur at the very long end of the yield
curve. This will flatten the yield curve even further. We've been
using the mantra 'lower for longer' … now I guess we'll have to
say 'lower and flatter for a lot longer'."
Not everyone's a fan
As has been the case recently, there were three dissenters on
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): Dallas Fed President Richard
Fisher, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Philadelphia
Fed President Charles Plosser. They've been more "hawkish" on recent
Fed decisions, concerned about the unintended consequences of extremely
easy monetary policy, including inflation.
That said, the statement accompanying the FOMC's decision did note
that "inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year
as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their
peaks." The statement did note additional downside economic risks
though, specifically mentioning "strains in global financial markets."
50 years later
Today's OT has the same rationale as that of 1961—to stimulate
a very weak economy while trying to keep inflation at bay. The decision
to "sterilize" the purchases of longer-dated Treasuries with sales
of shorter-dated Treasuries, thereby keeping the balance sheet at
its current size, is an attempt to keep inflation at bay. Recall
that both rounds of quantitative easing, QE1 and QE2, did expand
the balance sheet and helped unleash a rapid acceleration of commodity
inflation. The Fed had been very transparent about its desire to
prevent the unintended consequences of more quantitative easing.
What differentiates QE from OT is that OT does not impact the amount
of money supply in the markets and therefore the effect on the dollar,
and in turn commodity prices/inflation, is more limited. By adding
liquidity at the longer end of the Treasury curve and pumping up
the supply of Treasuries at the shorter end of the curve, the Fed
is hoping that cash will venture into the real economy.
Will it work?
There are risks that the money won't find its way into the economy
and create jobs, as intended by the Fed. Remember, full employment
and stable prices are the Fed's dual mandates. There's legitimate
fear that the Fed's siphoning of liquidity at the short end of the
curve won't actually lead to increased lending in the real economy.
Instead, the move could destroy yields on savings without the beneficial
effect on growth, leading to a form of liquidity trap.
We've consistently expressed concern that the Fed is unable to cure
what ails the economy. The problem is not that interest rates are
too high, but that we're in a debt-deleveraging cycle that started
three years ago in the private sector and is only just beginning
in the public sector. This will take time—a lot of it—and although
the Fed is not impotent, it does not possess the Holy Grail for
the economy.
As for housing and mortgage rates, we're also still in a mortgage
deleveraging and foreclosure cycle, and frankly, policy makers may
be missing what ails the housing market. The focus has been on getting
mortgage rates down further in order to stimulate refinancings and
new borrowing. But as I've noted many times, it's the "real" mortgage
rate that matters to prospective borrowers, not the "nominal" mortgage
rate. What do I mean by that?
The math of "real mortgage rates"
Back at the peak of the housing bubble in 2005, the 30-year
fixed mortgage rate (the nominal rate) was about 6%. To get the
"real" mortgage rate, you have to subtract the appreciation in home
prices (the "deflator"). Home prices were appreciating at a 17%
annual rate at the bubble's peak. So, the real mortgage rate was
actually -11%: 6% - 17% = (11%). No wonder we had a bubble … who
wouldn't want to borrow at negative rates? You could borrow at 6%
to buy an asset appreciating at 17% per year.
Fast-forward to the trough in housing in 2009. The nominal 30-year
fixed mortgage rate had dropped to 5%, but home price appreciation
became depreciation at an ironic 17% rate. So, the real mortgage
rate was actually +22%: 5% - (17%) = 22%. Who wants to borrow at
any rate to buy a rapidly depreciating asset?
I think this is what many policy makers are missing. It's the "rapidly
depreciating" part of the equation that needs to heal. If home prices
are still declining, even with rates low, there's likely to be limited
demand to borrow. I do think mortgage refinancings could get at
least a marginal lift from OT if rates go lower, but we need to
be realistic about the overall affect on housing.
Confidence is key
Ultimately, confidence has to improve before we're likely to
enjoy any reasonable pace of economic growth. Whether this move
by the Fed starts the confidence-healing process remains to be seen.
But we suggest you keep your expectations relatively low.
Important Disclosures
The information provided here is for general informational purposes
only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation
or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned
here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review
an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before
making any investment decision.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice
in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein
from third party providers is obtained from what are considered
reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability
cannot be guaranteed.
Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended
to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.
.
|
|
Market
Failure Compared to Government Failure.
by Dr.
Gary Becker.
 |
| Gary S.
Becker. |
When an industry
in the private sector is not performing efficiently or effectively,
there is said to be "market failure". The recommendation
by economists and others typically is then for government actions
to combat such failure, such as taxes to help reduce pollution.
The diagnosis of market failure may be accurate, but the call for
government involvement may be naïve and inappropriate.
The reason
is that actual governments do not necessarily do what economists
and others want them to do because there is "government failure"
as well as market failure. Before recommending government actions
to correct market failures, one should consider whether actual government
policies would worsen rather than improve private sector outcomes.
Since many factors often make for considerable government failure,
considering such failure is crucial and not just a theoretical fine
point.
Consider, for
example, that consumers are sometimes ignorant of the qualities
and other aspects of the products they buy. However, before advocating
various forms of government protection of consumers, we should recognize
that voters are far more ignorant of political candidates then consumers
are of what they buy. The reason is that consumers directly suffer
if they make bad choices out of ignorance, while individual voters
have negligible influence over political outcomes. Hence voters
have little incentive to be informed about different candidates
and their positions, and the consequences of the mistakes they make
are largely borne by others.
Monopolies
do arise in the private sector, as when Microsoft had monopoly power
over personal computer operating systems, when IBM still earlier
had monopoly power over computers, or when manufacturers form cartels
to raise their prices by restricting production. Yet, monopoly also
occurs in the political sector, and it is far more pervasive there.
An industry that contains only two firms is considered a duopoly
that is presumed to raise prices above competitive levels, but the
political process is dominated in democratic countries by duopolies,
such as the Democratic and Republican parties. In addition, when
government companies receive monopoly positions, such as the US
Postal Service or national oil companies in many countries, they
generally succeed in either keeping out or greatly delaying the
entrance of private competitors. By contrast, private monopolistic
positions are usually temporary, as seen in the eroding over time
of IBM’s and Microsoft’s dominant positions in the computer industry.
Government
actions sometimes not only fail to overcome market failure but rather
worsen the failure. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were formed as quasi-governmental
institutions to help encourage mortgages in the residential housing
market because of a belief that the private sector was not providing
enough mortgages, especially to lower income families. Yet, as documented
in detail in Reckless Endangerment by Gretchen Morgenson
and Joshua Rosner, these two companies used their privileged positions
to take excessive risks, and to insure large numbers of mortgage
loans that should never have been made.
European regulators
have attacked Microsoft, Google, General Electric, Intel, and other
(mainly American) companies because of various alleged anti-competitive
policies. In these cases, and in many antitrust cases brought by
American regulators, such as the recent objection to the merger
of AT&T and T-Mobile, the motivation seems to be to protect
the competitors of these companies or to protect jobs rather than
to improve outcomes to consumers.
Many countries
subsidize various alternative forms of energy, such as wind, solar,
biofuels, and electric batteries, because of the substantial pollution
from using coal, oil, and other fossil fuels. Often, however, the
choices of what to heavily subsidize are made on political rather
than economic criteria. For example, for years hydrogen cars were
politically the most promising substitute for gasoline driven cars;
then hydrogen fell out of favor and electric cars became the political
darlings. Since governments have seldom succeeded in picking technological
winners, I suspect they will be wrong again in these attempts to
steer the development of cost-effective alternatives to the internal
combustion gasoline engine. Another example is the scandal about
the heavy American government financial support to the solar panel
company Solyndra that recently failed.
How does one
approach policy once it is recognized that government failure is
substantial, and often much worse than market failure? As a general
rule I believe the presumption should be in favor of government
actions only when market failures are quite large and persistent.
So clearly governments should have the dominant role in the military
and police areas, in the judiciary, in protecting against massive
pollution, and in providing a safety net for its least fortunate
members (private charities are important but do not do enough).
On the other hand, when market failures are relatively small and
likely to be temporary, as in monopoly situations or in exploiting
consumer ignorance, government involvement should be minimal, as
in minimalist anti-trust policies, and in allowing consumers generally
to make their own decisions.
The intermediate
cases are the most difficult: when market failures may be significant,
and yet government alternatives are not attractive. This may be
decided on a case-by-case basis, but I believe the usual rule should
then be to let the market operate. This belief is based on the conclusion
that, on the whole, government failure is far more pervasive, damaging,
and less self-correcting, than is market failure. Others may reach
different conclusions, but these are the problems that a relevant
welfare analysis should focus on. Simply concluding that in particular
instances markets are not working perfectly is a misleading and
incorrect basis for supporting active and sizable government involvement.
Dr.
Gary Becker
is a University Professor, Department of Economics, and Sociology
Professor, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago.
He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992 for his groundbreaking
work in "human capital." President George W. Bush awarded him the
Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2007.
To keep
track of Dr. Becker's continuing research and commentary, visit
his website
and blog.
|
|
Too
Many Government Workers?
by
the
Honorable Richard A. Posner.
Much
of the concern with government deficits in countries as unlike as
the United States and Greece focuses on public employees, viewed
as overpaid parasites who, being paid by the government, contribute
directly to the public debt. And there are indeed good economic
reasons to expect the public sector to be less efficient than the
private sector. The principal reasons are four: the incentive provided
by the profit motive is absent; public agencies tend to be monopolies;
public employees are voters; and public employers tend to substitute
nonpecuniary for pecuniary emolument, such as tenure and generous
retirement benefits, because the public notices and reacts adversely
to high government salaries.
Therefore
one might think that the larger the fraction of public employees
in a nation’s workforce, the less efficient the nation’s economy,
and so the lower per capita GDP would be. (Commonly for international
comparisons GDP is translated into U.S. dollars on the basis of
estimates of purchasing power parity, and I will do that.) I decided
to examine that question empirically, with respect to 27 countries,
including the United States and Canada from the Western Hemisphere,
Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore from East Asia,
Israel, and all the countries of Western, Northern, Central, and
Southern Europe, plus Poland. The countries were not chosen at random,
but instead selected as being at least roughly comparable to the
United States in their economic system and political culture.
The
percentage of public employees in the workforces of these countries
ranges from 6.35 percent in Singapore to 33.87 percent in Sweden.
Indeed the three lowest countries, and the only ones with fewer
than 10 percent public employees, are Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan.
The highest countries after Sweden are Denmark (32.3 percent) and
Norway (29.25 percent). The remaining Scandinavian country, Finland,
is fifth with 26.31 percent. In fourth place, just below Denmark,
is Hungary. The other countries with public-employee percentages
above 20 percent are Greece (22.3 percent), Canada, and Poland,
Greece being the lowest in this group of eight countries, despite
all the negative attention its public-employee workforce has received
lately.
The
rest of the countries in my list (that is excluding the above-20
percent and below-10 percent countries), are grouped pretty tightly
between about 12 and 19 percent. The United States is in approximately
the middle, with 16.42 percent. Surprisingly, it is well ahead of
Israel, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and Portugal. The European
countries with the lowest percentage of public workers are the Netherlands
and Austria, but Portugal is only slightly above the Netherlands.
Per
capita income, in purchasing power parity terms, ranges from $17,537
in Poland to $53,748 in Norway; interestingly, both have very high
percentages of public employees. Regression analysis reveals no
systematic correlation between percentage of public employees and
per capita GDP, except that the Scandinavian countries as a group
exhibit a statistically significant positive correlation between
those two variables, if the Asian countries are treated as a separate
variable—Singapore has the second highest GDP per capita after Norway,
yet the lowest percentage of public employees.
The
upshot is that there does not appear to be a relation between a
country’s prosperity and the number of public employees it has.
(Or between population and the percentage of public employees, though
one might expect that, given fixed costs of government, the percentage
of public employees would be higher the smaller the population.
Singapore is a dramatic refutation of the point, as it has a population
of only 4.6 million, one of the lowest of the 27 countries, yet
it has the lowest percentage of public workers.)
A
more sophisticated analysis would cover more countries (there are
195 countries in the world) and correct for more variables; obviously
there is much that affect a nation’s prosperity besides the percentage
of its public employees. I am nevertheless surprised that my crude
analysis should yield no correlation between per capita GDP and
percentage of public workers in a nation’s workforce. The critical
omitted variable may be the jobs the public employees do. Are they
teachers? Bank examiners? Revenue agents? Food and drug inspectors?
Air traffic controllers? Police officers? Medical workers? Or are
they railroad workers or other employees of business enterprises
owned by the government, politicians’ relatives, licensing officials
taking bribes from small business, or beneficiaries of a spoils
system of public employment? It does seem significant, though, that
the Scandinavian countries should be as prosperous as they are (though
Norway, with a very small population and huge oil reserves, may
be a special case) despite having such a high percentage of public
workers, and it is equally striking that the East Asian countries
(though my sample of them is very small) should be so prosperous
despite having such a small percentage of public workers. Perhaps
the relation between a nation’s economy and the percentage of its
public workers is determined by a political and social culture that
determines what tasks are assigned to government, what incentives
and constraints are placed on public workers, and who is attracted
to public service. Maybe, with the right combination, public service
can be as economically productive as private enterprise.
About
Judge Richard A. Posner
Judge Richard A. Posner is Judge, United States Seventh Circuit
Court of Appeals & Senior Lecturer, University of Chicago Law
School. His most recent book is The
Crisis of Capitalist Democracy. Read his ongoing
blog with Dr. Gary Becker at http://uchicagolaw.typepad.com/beckerposner/
This
blog has been reprinted with permission of the author. All rights
are reserved by Judge Richard A. Posner.
|
|
Prince
Harry Will Be in Arizona This Fall.
by Natalie
Pace.
10
Reasons Why You Should Be There, Too.
Royalty
Meets Bravery in the Desert's Saguaro Paradise.
 |
| Prince
Harry opening the first remembrance field dedicated to those
killed in Afghanistan on Nov. 9, 2010. (Photo by Adrian Brook,
Imagewise, 2010) |
I, like most
of the world, fell in love with Tucson, Arizona last January 8,
2011, when an intern, mobilized citizens, an emergency response
team and the mind-bogglingly adept Tucson University Medical Center
surgeons performed in concert to save the life of Representative
Gabrielle Giffords. Had even one of those incredible forces for
good faltered, a mentally ill gunman who would have succeeded in
taking her life.
So,
being in awe of the people of Tucson and their humble, but grand,
rise to the world stage, I decided to experience the city firsthand
before Representative Giffords releases her highly anticipated memoir
(written with her husband astronaut Mark Kelly) Gabby:
a Story of Courage and Hope, on November 15, 2011. Now
that I know where to go and what to eat, chances are you'll find
me lounging at my favorite desert oasis in Tucson - ; The Ritz
Carlton Dove Mountain - ; sipping a prickly pear margarita amidst
the saguaros, while I immerse myself in Rep. Giffords' book.
Oh. And Prince
Harry might be in town, too (as you might have already heard). Luke
Air Force Base public affairs spokesperson Captain Carla Gleason
has confirmed that Captain Wales (His Royal Highness) will
be in Arizona and California for two months this fall, as part of
his Apache helicopter Conversion to Role (CTR) course.
Don't worry,
Captain Wales. While the 'mountains in the desert' tour is designed
to provide Afghanistan-like conditions for your Royal Air Force
training, there are plenty of places in Arizona, particularly in
my favorite city, Tucson, that offer regal delights that you don't
want to miss.
Below are a
few must-see, must-do experiences -- when you're not navigating
updrafts and hot spots in the chopper.
- Gabby:
A Story of Courage and Hope. On November 15, 2011,
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and her husband astronaut Mark Kelly will
release their new book documenting their moving story of public
service, risk-taking, romance—and the journey toward recovery.
Great reading while in the vicinity of the Wild West, where citizens
wrestle shooters to the ground with their bare hands, interns
risk their own life to save the life of their real-life hero and
the trauma center surgeons are the best in the world.
- Saguaro
National Park. Desert Hiking and Botanical Gardens.
The Giant Saguaro is only found in a small portion of the
United States -- Tucson. With more than 165 miles (264 km) of
hiking trails, a hike at Saguaro National Park can be a stroll
on a short interpretive nature trail or a daylong wilderness trek.
 |
| Saguaros
at Sunset in the Saguaro National Park. |
- Old
Tucson Studios. Family fun enjoying hayrides, guzzling
down sarsaparillas and experiencing shoot-outs in the studio where
over 300 old Westerns and TV productions have been filmed. Old
Tucson is designed to have you experience what life was really
like in the Old West, from the perils of a cross-country stagecoach
trip, to the adventures of the town sheriff and even the rituals
of Native Americans. Between September 30 and October 31, 2011,
Tucson Studios will host Nightfall -- 20 years of Terror (in celebration
of Halloween).
- Ritz
Carlton Dove Mountain. What impressed me most about this
extraordinary resort is that it is everything you love about the
Ritz (luxurious with personable staff who are a glance away from
fulfilling all of your needs and desires), while also being "native."
From the Southwestern décor, including geodes and quartz
crystals, to the backdrop of the Tortolita Mountains, to the evening
Native American flute serenade out by the fire pit, the Dove Mountain
experience embraces all that is rich and blessed about cowboy
country in a comfortable, yet elegant, ambiance.
 |
| View
of the Jack Nicklaus Signature Design golf course at The
Ritz-Carlton Golf Club, Dove Mountain. |
At
the same time, there is plenty of fun for all. There are poolside
cabanas for grownups and a giant water slide for kids. (I was
happy to race the 3-year olds for my turn in line). Have a delicious
gourmet meal overlooking the saguaros at Clayton's (where the
sliders are as delightful as the crab cakes). Experience an "Elements"
massage treatment, which includes a fireside consultation with
an aromatherapist, a Jacuzzi bath and 90 minutes of healing and
bliss. Golf on a Jack Nicklaus Signature course. Ride horses along
Wild Burro Canyon. Star gaze. The Ritz is off by itself, away
from the city, so plan on enjoying the property to its fullest
and planning your excursions off property well. Don't miss the
sunset wine tasting!
 |
| The
Turquesa Pool at The Ritz-Carlton Golf Club, Dove Mountain.
|
- Westin
La
Paloma Golf Resort and Azul Restaurant. Like the Ritz,
La Paloma sits above the city with stunning views of the valley
below, and like the Ritz, La Paloma boasts a Jack Nicklaus Signature
golf course for golf lovers, and a water slide for the kids. La
Paloma is very family friendly, is close to the La Encantada Mall
and sports the finest restaurant in the city -- Azul. The only
downside of La Paloma is that it feels less like authentic Tucson
(no geodes or crystals or flutists) and more like a "resort."
However, the room sizes will astound you, the Westin amenities
will spoil you and the prices will make your wallet very, very
happy as well.
 |
| The
Westin La Paloma Golf Resort. |
Enjoy the Unlimited Golf Package with room rates that are as affordable
as some green fees, a Girls Get Away Deal that includes a $170
spa credit and $50 shopping credit and a 25th Anniversary
Package (celebrating the resort's anniversary) where your 3rd
night is under $20! La Paloma is definitely the kind of resort
where you can get a suite, bring the kids and your parents (hopefully
for some time alone golfing, playing tennis and getting spa treatments)
and everyone will thoroughly enjoy themselves. If Grandma and
Grandpa aren't available, there's a Kids Center, with movie night
on the weekends, so that you can savor the gourmet cuisine at
Azul Restaurant. Great for weddings, Parent's Night at the University
of Arizona and company conventions, too. If your company is planning
an off-site event, La Paloma is the kind of place where you can
design your own experience. From fashion shows to discos, outside
or in the ballroom, La Paloma has the space and staff to host
large events and make them feel intimate and special at the same
time.
 |
| The
27-hole Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf Course at La Paloma
Golf Resort in Tucson, Arizona |
- Azul
Restaurant. Serge yves Delage
is the executive chef for La Paloma, and Azul will sizzle your
taste buds as much as this gifted chef has sparked the passion
of peers and critics around the world. Chef Delage has been named
to the Top 100 Names in Travel by Conde Nast Traveler Magazine
and is one of only 60 chefs in the United States to have been
inducted into the exclusive Académie Culinaire de France.
It might take you a few nights to sample everything you want to
try on the menu, and the investment will be very worth it. Fortunately,
since Azul specializes in tapas and small plates, if you have
an adventurous, willing partner, you can graze and share to your
heart's delight. Don't miss the fuego shrimp, the warm tomato
and burrata salad, the mushroom torta, the scallops and polenta,
the certified angus filet mignon (melt in your mouth tender) and
whatever you do, beg, borrow or steal for a side of the truffle
mashed potatoes.
 |
| Serge
yves Delage, executive chef for La Paloma. |
- Teresa's
Mosaic Café.
Bobby Flay put Teresa's
Mosaic Café on the map when he was doing his
Southwestern throw-down tour, challenging the Matias Family to
cook up the best huevos rancheros. The New York Times and
the book 500 Things to Eat Before It's Too Late name Teresa's
dish as the perfect breakfast. Mosaic Café offers authentic
Mexican food prepared with love and only the finest, freshest
ingredients. Sample homemade tortillas, fresh salsa, chunky guacamole
and creamy frijoles (refried beans). You'll love the enchiladas,
the chile Colorado, the chile relleno -- everything is a cut above
what you'd expect. However, do yourself a favor and be sure to
order the chile and cheese tamale, which is melt in your mouth
delicious. The best I've ever had anywhere!
- La
Encantada Mall. This is one of the most beautiful
outdoor malls in America, tucked beneath the Catalina Mountains
and overlooking the city of Tucson. Sadly, you won't find any
cowboy boots or rainmakers here. The stores are standard mall
fare -- Victoria's Secret, Coach, Bebe, Crate and Barrel -- with
a few shops specializing in Southwestern gifts. There are a number
of good restaurants however, including one of my favorite moderately
priced eateries, Firebird's.
- Firebird's
Wood Fired Grill.
If you enjoy unique cocktails, be sure to try Firebird's pineapple
infused vodka martini. Just the right amount of sweet and kick.
I fell in love with the pecan-crusted trout with mango relish
and mashed potatoes, while my girlfriend gushed over her steak
salad. And if you go at lunchtime, you will be surprised at just
how affordable a great meal can be.
- Anthony's
in the Catalinas. Over the years,
Anthony's has won quite an impressive number of awards for outstanding
cuisine and wine. The AAA Four Diamond Award, the Distinguished
Restaurants of North America Award and the Grand Award from Wine
Spectator to name a few. This is an old school Italian restaurant
where you will enjoy the best Caesar salad you've ever had, made
fresh at your table. Tucson locals love Anthony's so be sure to
make a reservation. Host your own luncheon, or drop by for dinner
and breathtaking views of the Catalina Mountains. Enjoy house
smoked breast of duck, scallops Rockefeller, crab cakes or shrimp
chorizo for appetizers. Dinner choices include chateaubriand,
roasted rack of lamb, salmon, filet mignon, veal marsala, a grilled
vegetable platter, fresh fish of the day and lobster specials
on Friday nights.
- Brushfire
BBQ. It's always good to know the cheap, but good go-to
meal, and Brushfire BBQ is it in Tucson -- provided you are a
meat eater. Melt in your mouth Brisket, ribs, potato salad, grilled
corn, yams, and cornbread -- tasty comfort food in sizable portions
for a very reasonable price.
So, whether
you are royal or brave, or just admiring those qualities of the
locals and visitors in the unique Southwestern city of Tucson, Arizona,
now you know the best of the city and just why this is indeed a
Desert Paradise.
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As
a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million
for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her
on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
Please note:
NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report
on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.
ALWAYS do
your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional
before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term
goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all
in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan
should reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with
the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with
your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion
of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
Information
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute
our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject
to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein
may not be suitable for all investors.
|
|
The
Mom Network.
by Natalie
Pace.
Thriving,
despite the money and time challenges of divorce.
 |
| Photo
by: Doug Mazell. |
Getting divorced
is one of the most expensive hardships of life. Your expenses double
(two households), while your income feels split in half. Your time
is drained as well, with all of those extra trips to your ex's to
pick up forgotten homework assignments, and trying to take on an
extra job for income.
If this isn't
your experience, then count yourself lucky. Single mothers and their
children are by far the largest demographic living in poverty. In
2010, 31.6 percent of households headed by single women were poor,
while 15.8 percent of households headed by single men and 6.2 percent
of married-couple households lived in poverty (source: University
of Michigan).
While the statistics
are startling and the challenges are daunting, single mothers (and
fathers) are finding creative solutions. And the Mom Network is
a big piece of what works...
House-Sharing
Even
the famous attorney and women's advocate, Gloria Allred, once used
house sharing as a solution. "As a young and struggling mom," Ms.
Allred shared in an email, "I shared a place with another young
single mother." CoAbode.org
helps single moms find a match, and even provides resources for
interviewing potential roomies for compatibility. It's not forever
and it's not a replacement for the family, but it does provide more
time, support and money for over-worked single moms, who desperately
need the help. Jennifer and Simone in Minneapolis told CoAbode that
they are far better mothers because they are less stressed. House
sharing trims the cost of housing, childcare and food and gives
single parents an extra helping hand in the household. CoAbode
is a service for single moms only, however, the solution works for
single dads as well. Remember The Odd Couple?
Carpooling
Carpooling
to school, to afterschool classes and even to soccer tournaments
can save a lot of time and money -- especially with today's gas
prices. This seems like an obvious solution, however, when people
are stressed out, it can be difficult to see beyond the problems.
If you know a single mom or dad, it's worth a call to let
them know that you're available for ride sharing. And if you are
a single mom or dad, make it a point to reach out to fellow soccer
moms, troop dads and classroom parents who live local. The world
isn't against you (like it feels); others just don't always know
how to help.
Sleepovers
& Play Dates
When
money is tight, it's hard to think about fun. However, the payback
on your investment is beyond measure in dollars and cents. The single
parent has to be a lot more creative about entertaining the troops,
but the other parents appreciate the effort, as do the kids -- even
if they tease you about it. As a single mom, I was known for "hell
hikes." I took the kids for nature walks, instead of the movies.
However, how else would the boys have learned to skip rocks across
a pond, rappel down real cliffs, fish and identify which animal
created that scat?
Girl's
Night In
Whether
it is an investment club, a book club, a cook's club, or just dinner
and drinks, create a monthly Girl's Night for yourself and your
friends. Through these social events, which are fun, you'll find
yourself bonding and opening up about some of the issues, challenges
and fears that are weighing you down. Your load may be lightened
literally, when a friend comes up with a solution that you have
never considered. Other times, the load just feels lighter because
you shared your problems instead of keeping them in. Be careful,
however. A great dinner party includes wine and cheese, not whine
and cheese.
Charity
is Networking
It's
hard to think of being charitable when you feel like you are the
one in need of charity. However, if you want to create a better
life for yourself, then charity is one of the highest return, lowest
cost, simple solutions on that path. Through charitable giving,
you showcase your talents, meet people who are on the move and create
a new network of friends who can be helpful in creating new income
opportunities with you. Many people think they can increase income
through high-cost "networking" groups. However, you're more likely
to create a bond with others when you are working side by side in
a passion project than you are by standing up in a room of a hundred
strangers you have little in common with, and throwing out a 30-second
elevator pitch to people who don't care what you do and are there
mostly to sell you their wares, too.
Increasing
Income
Far
too many single parents are taking on a second low-paying job to
increase income. Others fall for get-rich-quick schemes and/or pie-in-the-sky
promises of MLM sales. Get creative and mindful about your path
to greater income. Should you get more education? Intern to learn
new skills? Reach out to your friends for job referrals? Rethink
which profession you are in altogether? In a world where those with
PhDs are experiencing less than 2% unemployment, whereas almost
15% of those without high school diplomas are out of work, you cannot
overlook the value of new skills and education.
Local community
colleges offer low-cost education. There are scholarships and grants
available for parents who are returning to school. Some of our most
successful CEOs went back to live with the parents or slept on friend's
couches in order to invest in a better tomorrow -- and are very
happy they did so. (Think Steve Jobs.)
For more information
on how "Education
Pays," please read my HuffingtonPost blog of the same
name.
There is no
doubt that single parents have it a lot tougher than married parents.
However, creating partnerships, which I lovingly call The Mom Network
(even though it includes a few dads, too), is a very rewarding way
to ease the burden.
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two
million for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow
her on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
|
|
A
Meditation to Call in Divine Inspiration.
by Natalie
Pace.
There's a lot
of stress in me on some days.
I feel beaten
up by random anger. Or blasted with rage-filled opinions. When the
noise is too loud and beauty is pushed out of the picture, for me
at least, it's time to call in ancient wisdom, art, music, and nature
-- the songs of the stars.
So I...
Relax.
Find a quiet
place to stand, sit or even invert myself into a shoulder, head
or handstand.
Music or no
music. Depending upon the day. (My meditation favorites tend to
be Guru Ganesha Singh or Jai Uttal.)
I breathe in
deeply and slowly. Take breath into my diaphragm. Hold.
I imagine as
I breathe in that I am breathing in the wisdom of the universe --
that which created the galaxies and stars and life on Earth.
I take more
breath into my diaphragm before exhaling.
I hold my breath.
As I exhale,
slowly, I imagine that there is a river flowing out of me, carrying
away all of the stress of the day, the old thoughts that no longer
serve me, the garbage of my life and thoughts, the nonsense and
rhetoric and misinformation and lies and cheating and greed that
I may have encountered. I give thanks for the magical moments of
the day, the inspirations that I've encountered, the synchronicity,
the fertility, the new insights, the truth, the loyalty and the
generosity that have been placed in my path, gifts free for the
taking.
And here is
my meditation...
O Divine
Breath of my Life,
Clear my heart so the sacred may dwell within me,
Fill me with your creativity, so that I may be empowered to bear
the fruit of your vision
May the wisdom of the heavens be manifest through me, here on Earth
Give me the vision to flourish and thrive each day
Forgive me of my failures, my frustrations and my weaknesses, as
I forgive those who are "in debt" to me
Keep me pure, that I’m not distracted with the mundane, the superficial,
the destructive, the unripe and the rotten
For the kingdom, the power and the glory are present always in my
life and forever more. Amen.
By Natalie
Pace. Copyright 2009.
Inspired by
the Lord’s Prayer.
|
|
NYPD
Shuts Down Wall Street.
by
Natalie Pace.
Protesters
of the Occupy
Wall Street movement had hoped to take command of Wall
Street on September 17, 2011, but the New York Police Department
quickly showed them who was in charge, by barricading all entrances
to the heart of America's financial institutions. Police began locking
arms in front of the barricades and street lifts about 1:00 p.m.
ET -- two hours before the General Assembly of the protest was scheduled
to begin at Chase Manhattan Plaza. (The boys in blue obviously have
a Twitter presence, too...)
The "Day of
Rage" turned out mostly to be a day of peace. Only two arrests were
made.
Media reports
have called this movement "Marxist," "Guerrilla" and have claimed
that the protestors are anti-Capitalist, "airy" hippies. However,
anyone moving through the crowd and listening to their conversations
wouldn't come to that conclusion. While the word has spread through
the best viral mediums available, including Facebook and Twitter,
the theme -- anti-Corporatocracy -- is one that attracts people
from all stripes of life -- veterans, moms, families with children,
young professionals (in sunglasses, hoodies and/or masks) and students.
The crowd was predominantly 20-ish, with a majority of males, however,
many were educated, and quite a few of the "speakers" spoke with
an economist vernacular that suggests some may even have jobs on
the street they are united against. You can't even assume these
are young Democrats; I saw more than one picture of President Obama
with a Hitler mustache.
You can hear
some of the Voices of Democracy from the Occupy Wall Street movement
-- in their own words -- on my YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM
channel. Links to a few are directly below.
Justin:
leader on the ground, Occupy Wall Street
Barbara
Durrell
Veteran
with a Flag
As Barbara
Ross, the press coordinator of Time's
Up (an environmental group) and a participant in Occupy
Wall Street, told me, "Corporations are too powerful in this country.
They control the media and are more powerful than the politicians.
This is a way to say that we want to have a voice again." Some people
brought flowers with them. Others brought handmade signs and billowing
billboards. Barbara's bike sported the only professionally made
sign I saw on the first day of the protests, with the slogan, "Bicycling
Against Oil Wars."
 |
|
Photo:
Barbara Ross, press coordinator for Time's Up!
Photo by: Natalie Pace.
|
None of the
flyers or the speeches that I witnessed suggested that Marxism,
Anarchy or Violence is the answer. Most people sat peacefully and
quietly in makeshift circles and took turns sharing what they thought
should be the next step in this nascent movement. In fact, one young
woman, who proposed that it was time for "Grass Roots Capitalism,"
was quickly corrected by another protestor, who suggested that Capitalism
works -- when there is adequate regulation.
Indeed, it
is quite apparent, that these protesters love their country and
stand united against one enemy only. That enemy is not capitalism
or free markets or even the NYPD. That enemy is quite simply, cronyism
economics. It is clear that everyone was there as part of a movement
that is simply You
Vs. Wall Street. Chants of "Occupy Wall Street,"
and "Banks get bailed out, we get sold out" are being chanted as,
day after day during the opening and closing bell of the New York
and NASDAQ stock exchanges, hundreds of people parade down Wall
Street, "escorted" by the NYPD.
On October
1, 2011, the 15th day of the Liberty Plaza occupation, over 700
protesters were arrested as the Occupy Wall Street protesters marched
across the Brooklyn Bridge (source: NYPD). No one has an accurate
head count of the number of protesters, however, it has been estimated
that over 1500 marchers were in NYC on that day.
The most viral
video on the protest came on Day 8, Saturday, September 24, 2011.
80-100 peaceful protesters were arrested for "blocking the sidewalk,"
and other minor infractions. The situation escalated when police
officers corralled a group of young women with a net. While the
young women were confused and protesting the entrapment, a white-shirted
NYPD
officer approached and sprayed them with what appears to be pepper
spray.
In a telephone
conversation on September 29, 2011, a spokesperson for the NYPD
confirmed that the Internal Affairs Bureau and Civilian Complaint
Review Board are both investigating the Pepper Spray incident, involving
Anthony Bologna, that occurred on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2011. I asked
for details on any other disciplinary action that might be taken
against NYPD Deputy Inspector Bologna, but have received no response
from the NYPD.
What
is compelling (and under-reported) is the compassion, wisdom, commitment
and patience that underscores most of the protesters, even in the
face of violence.
After the pepper
spray attack, Chelsea Elliott, one of the young women who was sprayed,
defended the NYPD, saying to the Village Voice, " "Most of
the cops are really not like that. Most of the time they're with
us. The cops around me were pissed that it happened. Yesterday,
I think they were scared, and under a lot of pressure." Those sentiments
were seconded by another protester, spokesperson Kelly
Heresy, who appeared on Keith Olbermann's Countdown
on Monday, September 26, 2011.
At least once
a day, the group has a "General Assembly." Dr. Cornell West, professor,
Princeton University, spoke at Liberty Plaza (Zuccotti Park) on
Tuesday night, Sept. 27, 2011. Since there can be no amplification,
the crowd repeats each sentence so that everyone can hear. Dr. Cornell
West started his speech, saying, "There is a sweet spirit in this
place. I hope you can feel the love and inspiration of those everyday
people who take a stand with great courage and compassion because
we oppose the greed of Wall Street oligarchs."
To see the
video of Dr. West's speech, visit OccupyWallSt.org.
Susan Sarandon,
Michael Moore and former governor David Paterson have also visited
Occupy Wall Street.
During the
week after the violence of September 24, 2011 (and before the clash
on October 1), things were relatively quiet. It's as if both sides
plan all week and then have a big confrontation on the weekends.
Many allies of the protesters have day jobs, and the numbers of
the movement can swell by 7X or more on the weekend. True to the
pattern, Occupy Wall Street spokespersons confirmed that only five
people were arrested on Monday, October 3, 2011, for "wearing masks.".
The protesters
who can continue to sleep in the park, surrounded by police who
make no attempt to break things up. Some people in the movement
Occupy Wall Street sleep on cardboard, others in sleeping bags and
some locals go home to freshen up and return in the morning. Others
commute from local colleges. Some hitchhike across America to join
the group. They are cleaning up their trash and staying quiet. Donations
of food and money are coming in from around the world.
The police
have erected a portable surveillance camera on the crowd, and certain
areas, like Wall Street and the famous Wall Street bull sculpture
remain fenced off and off-limits to the protesters.
Is this the
beginning of a Main Street versus Wall Street movement across America?
Occupy Wall Street reports that "There are occupations in 147 US
cities and 28 cities around the world including London, Paris, Switzerland
& Cologne." Indeed, I've been receiving video and photos from across
the U.S. -- from Asheville, North Carolina, to Los Angeles, to Washington
D.C.
On September
17, 2011, Day of Rage was a Top 10 search trend on Google.
Stay tuned
in. This story gets bigger every day. I continue to provide almost
daily updates in the comments section of my HuffingtonPost blog,
"NYPD
Shuts Down Wall Street."
About Natalie
Pace:
Natalie Pace is the author of You
Vs. Wall Street. and Put
Your Money Where Your Heart Is, and the founder and
CEO of the Women’s Investment Network, LLC. She is a blogger on
HuffingtonPost.com,
and a repeat guest on national television and radio shows such as
Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, ABC-TV, Forbes.com, NPR and
more. As
a philanthropist, she has helped to raise more than two million
for Los Angeles public schools and financial literacy. Follow her
on Facebook.com/NWPace.
For more
information please visit NataliePace.com.
|
|
Buying
Low Stinks.
by Natalie
Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
October
3, 2011
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Monday 1.3.2011
|
Friday, 10.3.2011
|
Gains 3-yr,
2-yr & 9 mo.
|
|
Dow: 13,044.12
|
Dow: 9,034.69
|
Dow: 11,577.43
|
10,655.30
|
-18% & +18% & -8%
|
|
Nasdaq: 2,609.63
|
Nasdaq: 1,632.21
|
Nasdaq: 2,676.65
|
2,335.83
|
-10% & +43% & -13%
|
|
S&P: 1,447.16
|
S&P: 931.80
|
S&P: 1,257.62
|
1,099.23
|
-24% & +18% & -13%
|
Wall
Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547 (3.9.09)
|
14,164 (10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ Composite Index
|
1,114 (10.9.02)
|
5,060.34 (3.10.00)
|
Hot News
on Cool Stocks Important Data
Up to 18X
gains on U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ
Doubled the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains from 2009-2011
Gold
continues momentum, at 19% gains so far in 2011 (-13% off of high
of $1,895/ounce set on 9.5.11)
13 out
of 14 Company of the Month features from 2010 posted gains.
Gold
tops stocks, real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years.

Compare those
returns to the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills
and gold over the last 30 years.

Market
Update:
Buying
Low Stinks.
All
year, while the markets were in a rally, people were in a rush to
buy because they didn't think the markets would ever bring a lower
price. And then immediately when the lower price came, after the
U.S. credit downgrade and again today, those same people are now
worried that they shouldn't buy now because we were in the Apocalypse.
Having been in this business for over a decade now, it's the same
thing that I heard in March of 2009, when the Dow lost more than
half of its value, and in October of 2002, when NASDAQ was trading
almost 80% lower than its high of March of 2000.
Performance
of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
October
1, 2007 to March 10, 2009

Source:
Money.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)
Performance
of the NASDAQ
March 1,
2000 to October 11, 2002

Source:
Money.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)
Conversely,
at the market tops, nobody wants to sell. Everyone thinks that the
"New Economy" or "immigration" or "China's growth" is going to keep
the stock market or the real estate market increasing in value forever.
And that is why buying low and selling high is so easy to say and
so hard to do. It is completely against human nature.
Performance
of the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
January
1, 1996 to March 30, 2000
Source: Money.MSN.com
(for illustration purposes only)
Performance
of the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
10 Years
(October 3, 2001 - Oct. 3, 2011)

Source: Money.MSN.com
(for illustration purposes only)
A person who
is comfortable buying low will enter a burned-out building and see
opportunity. (A buy-low enthusiast is happy that her Stock Shopping
List is now on sale!) A person who knows how to take profits (sell
high) is the same one who stops drinking an hour before s/he has
to get behind the wheel of a car. Selling high is like leaving the
party at midnight and having all of the drunks tell you how stupid
you are for taking off when the party has only just begun. But the
benefits of that kind of vision and discipline are significant.
Even with the
most recent pullback on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
is up 63% from the March 9, 2009 low; NASDAQ returns are even higher.
And, as you'll see below, though you may wish to fly to safety,
corporate earnings make it clear that stocks are a better investment
than the debt-laden bond options.
Performance
of the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
March 1,
2009 to October 3, 2011

Source:
Money.MSN.com (for illustration purposes only)
Doubling your
gains can compound your assets rapidly and beautify your bottom
line -- provided you don't let them slip away. It is equally important
to make sure that your assets are not binging and purging all the
time, riding the rollercoaster of these dramatic Wall Street mood
swings. If you start with $100,000, lose half and then achieve gains
of 74% on $50,000, you have only $87,000. If you start with $100,000
and keep half safe, then you'll still have at least $100,000 at
the end of the wild ride and will be poised for further gains, while
others are still suffering and underwater on their investments.
It is impossible
to guess exactly when the tops and bottoms of stocks occur. That
is why the secret to success is employing my Easy-as-a-Pie-Chart
Nest Egg Strategy, which works wonderfully in bull and bear
markets. This strategy operates the buy low; sell high equation
on auto-pilot, for maximum gains and optimum protection. You always
keep enough safe, and you always have a piece of the action in the
hottest industries when Wall Street rallies. During Recessions,
your safe side performs well; during Recoveries, your stocks do.
Easy-as-a-Pie-Chart
Investing
Here's how
it works.
- Deposit
10% of your income into a tax-protected retirement account automatically.
- Always
keep a percentage equal to your age safe. Stocks, equities and
funds are not safe. Bonds are more vulnerable than you think,
so you have to get educated on what's safe.
- Diversify
the remaining money into 10 funds, according to small, medium
and large, value and growth and four hot industries.
- Avoid
the Bailouts.
- Overweight
10% safe in recessions; overweight 10% into equities during recoveries.
- Rebalance
1-3 times per year. (This allows you to capture gains and buy
into funds low.)
The "how-to"
on each of these five criteria is outlined in my book, You
Vs. Wall Street. Better yet, come to one of my Investor
Educational Retreats, where you will learn these strategies
firsthand from me in a boardroom setting. You can walk in without
a clue, or with a cracked nest egg, and walk out with a plan that
works for the rest of your life. Call 310-430-2397 to learn more
now.
Double Dip
Recession or Recovery?
You
can't turn on television without hearing someone talk about the
possibility of a double-dip recession. However as you can see from
the earnings chart below, companies are recovering and the trend
is far from bleak. Corporate earnings are higher than they've been
in decades.
S&P500
Earnings Per Share
| QUARTER |
AS
REPORTED EPS |
OPERATING
EPS
|
| 6/30/2011 |
$24.19 |
$24.12 |
| 03/31/2011 |
$21.44 |
$22.56 |
| 12/31/2010 |
$20.67 |
$21.93 |
| 09/30/2010 |
$19.52 |
$21.56 |
| 06/30/2010 |
$19.68 |
$20.90 |
| 03/31/2010 |
$17.48 |
$19.38 |
| 12/31/2009 |
$15.18 |
$17.16 |
| 09/30/2009 |
$14.76 |
$15.78 |
| 06/30/2009 |
$13.51 |
$13.81 |
| 03/31/2009 |
$7.52 |
$10.11 |
| 12/31/2008 |
-$23.25 |
-$0.09 |
| 09/30/2008 |
$9.73 |
$15.96 |
| 06/30/2008 |
$12.86 |
$17.02 |
| 03/31/2008 |
$15.54 |
$16.62 |
| 12/31/2007 |
$7.82 |
$15.22 |
| 09/30/2007 |
$15.15 |
$20.87 |
| 06/30/2007 |
$21.88 |
$24.06 |
| 03/31/2007 |
$21.33 |
$22.39 |
| 12/31/2006 |
$20.24 |
$21.99 |
| 12/30/2005 |
$17.30 |
$20.19 |
| 12/31/2004 |
$13.94 |
$17.95 |
| 12/31/2003 |
$13.16 |
$14.88 |
| 12/31/2002 |
$3.00 |
$11.94 |
| 12/31/2001 |
$5.45 |
$9.94 |
| 12/31/2000 |
$9.07 |
$13.11 |
| 12/31/1999 |
$12.77 |
$13.77 |
Source:
Standard and Poor's
Job growth
is always the lagging indicator, which is why 9.1% unemployment
is not unexpected, though it is tragic to the 14 million people
who are still unemployed.
Another under-reported
statistic is that there are 3.2 million jobs available right now.
So, part of the solution is that people who are unemployed need
to improve their skills and/or consider getting more education.
For the unemployed construction worker, the solution might be learning
how to retrofit buildings for energy savings, such as the Green
City Force. The unemployed high school graduate might consider specialized
skills training, such as that provided by the Bay Area Medical Academy.
For more ideas on how to get back to work, be sure to read my HuffingtonPost
blog, "Education
Pays."
With the state
of the world today, which is very high debt in the developed world
and very high growth in the developing world, it is very possible
that we could have more economic headwinds. Certainly, war, terrorism
and other natural disasters weigh heavily on the recovery as well.
So, no one can say with absolute certainty that now is an opportunity
to buy low. We can say that now is an opportunity to buy lower
than stocks have been all year, and at a discount to where they
were at the highs in 2007.
And that is
why the Easy-as-a-Pie Chart plan is so valuable. It takes the guesswork
out of it.
Buy and hold
doesn't work, so if you are watching your nest egg get smashed time
and again, as so many Americans are horrified to witness with their
401Ks, IRAs and annuities, your fear is justified. Don't try to
change your mind; change your strategy. Praying for a miracle or
taking anti-depressants is not as smart as removing the cause of
the problem - a flawed strategy. The volatility in stocks,
bonds, real estate, gold, energy, oil and more are likely to continue
over the coming years.
So, learn and
implement a sound blueprint now and you'll rest much easier at night,
buying low when incredible buying opportunities occur and earning
gains while you sleep.
Investor
Edu Retreat:
Modern Portfolio
Theory (what my Easy-as-a-Pie Chart Nest Egg strategy is based upon)
saved Bill
and Nilo Bolden's nest egg in the Great Recession and had
novice investors doubling the returns of the Dow over the last few
years. Call 310-430-2397 NOW to learn how you can attend a boardroom
retreat with just 12 others, learning these strategies hands-on
from me.
Investor
Alerts:
1. OPEC
& a Basket of Currency: OPEC has released a new Long Term
Strategy report. There is speculation that OPEC will be going from
the U.S. dollar valuation to a "basket of currency," though
the Report doesn't state this explicitly. If true, this will be
distressing to U.S. investors, once they learn about it.
2. Debt:
Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+
on August 5, 2011. The Budget Plan of August 2, 2011 fell short
by almost $2 trillion. A lowered debt rating means we will
likely pay more interest - potentially a lot more -
which makes it even more difficult to balance the budget and spark
GDP growth.
3. Real
Estate: There
were 9.3 million foreclosure filings between 2007 and 2010.
At least 3.7 million properties are in a seriously delinquent stage.
This means that there will no upside in real estate prices (except
in certain cities) until 2013. Could be a good time to buy, while
interest rates are low. If you are underwater on your mortgage or
delinquent on your payments and are considering the "unthinkable,"
email Heather at NataliePace.com
to get the links to some very important articles.
4. 911 Investor
Alert: Bonds and Treasury Bills Read
up on how to understand the risk in bonds and select high quality
safe areas for your money in two
featured bond articles in the May 2011 ezine (volume 8,
issue 5). In the meantime, low-risk, cash-positive hard assets are
King (and no, I'm not suggesting to go all in on gold, see below).
Bonds and bond funds are vulnerable to loss of principal value now.
Interest rates will rise if the U.S. debt is downgraded. It might
take a few months or even a year, but without reform, credit risk
will increase, driving up interest rates.
5. Gold:
If you purchased gold at $850/ounce in 1980, you had to wait 26
years for the value to return. Most of the time, gold seesawed between
$250-$350 an ounce over that period. Now, with prices at $1800/ounce,
large holders of gold, including the United States, Brazil and more,
could be tempted to sell high. For a brief history of gold and information
on which countries are the biggest holders of gold, read, "The
Gold Crash of 1980," from the September 2010 ezine,
volume 7, issue 9. Gold continues to be a hot industry, but you
do not want to be all in.
So is There
Anything Good Out There?
Yes,
believe it or not, there are some excellent areas in the economy.
My 2009 Company of the Year, U.S. Gold, posted up to 18X gains.
Applied Materials, the 2010 Company of the Year, posted 25% gains
within a few months of being named. 13 out of 14 Companies featured
in my Company of the Month articles in 2010 were winners. Your nest
egg has almost fully recovered from the Great Recession. If you
have a great credit rating and can get a loan, there are areas of
the country where you can buy cash positive, low risk income property.
And even if you're in trouble, in doubt, losing a home or declaring
bankruptcy, there are some very important things to do to squirrel
away as many assets as possible. The best way to learn about these
things is to read this ezine top to bottom, read You
Vs. Wall Street and register to attend the next
Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat. Once you have the wisdom and
education that you should have received in high school, all of this
will be easy and can be set up on auto-pilot. Until then, you are
vulnerable to more boom/bust markets.
Banks Are
Still Failing
There
were 157 bank failures in 2010, 140 bank failures in 2009 and 25
in 2008. 74 banks have already failed in 2011 (source: FDIC.gov).
Don't be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of
them are fairy tales. (Nonproducing loans are carried off the books;
TARP and other Federal Reserve swaps are about as easy to figure
out as the origin of the life.) 13 million homes (or more) will
be lost between 2007 and 2012 and not all of them hitting the financial
statements with as much force as they should...
Track
Record of our Reporting
While the
markets are still down significantly since their high in October
of 2007, the Hot News and Cooling Off lists below have a winning
track record before, during and after the Great Recession -
in bear and bull market years. 106 positions listed over the
last four years - 70% - have delivered impressive
gains, even while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading
lower than it was in 2007 (when it cracked through 14,000)! Only
forty-six of our listings went in the opposite direction of the
reporting, which is quite impressive given the market gyrations
of more than 7000 point swings since 2008.
Remember that
the trading portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should
not be part of your nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while
you sleep, not while you day-trade.) If you're new, you should be
using education or fun money, not your nest egg, to learn on. Take
your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing
years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice
a year, not trying to market time.)
Half
of My Company of the Year selections more than doubled.
My 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted
up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to 690% gains (Opsware), up to 215%
gains (Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 18X ROI for U.S. Gold,
respectively. Applied Materials, 2010 Company of the Year, and MySpace,
my 2006 Company of the Year, were both super performers within a
few short months of their listings. So seven out of nine
Company of the Year selections were the best Wall Street has to
offer. That's the kind of record that made me a #1 stock picker.
(I launched my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured
the first Company of the Year, Taser International, on 1.1.03.)
13 out of
14 companies featured in the Company of the Month articles in 2010
earned gains - 93%! Some other big hits were Google at
the IPO (over 7X gains), Rio Tinto (tripled in value) and shorts
like Fannie Mae (in 2003), real estate (2005), General Motors (2005)
and Las Vegas (2008).
The NataliePace.com
ezine was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- Muni bond
and bond funds 911
Investor Alert in Sept. 2010.
- 2008
Recession
(Get
Safe)
- Trim back
on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Get out
of Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Google
at the IPO! (May 2004)
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
Market
Movers:
The
Federal Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The
Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to 1/4 percent." The
next FOMC meeting takes place on November 1-2, 2011.
GDP Growth
Rates: The third estimates of 2nd quarter GDP
growth are anemic, at 1.3% (revised upward from 1% in the 2nd
estimate). But what is even more startling is that 1st
quarter 2011 GDP growth rates were revised downward to 0.4% (blame
the high price of oil). 3rd quarter 2011 (advance estimates) will
be released on October 27, 2011 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
GDP
Growth in the U.S.
|
Year
|
GDP Growth
|
|
2010
|
3%
|
|
2009
|
-3.5%
|
|
2008
|
-0.3%
|
|
2007
|
1.9%
|
Source:
BEA.gov
These release
days tend to be very active on Wall Street. For more information
on GDP growth and other important economic statistics, go to the
BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar
section often.
EDUCATIONAL
OPPORTUNITES AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC
Information:
Interested in reading the press
release of the September 20-21, 2011 FOMC meeting for yourself?
The official Federal Reserve document is available online. Go to
FederalReserve.gov
to read! According to the Committee, "The Committee continues
to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters
but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually
toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its
dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to
the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets."
The tentative
FOMC meeting schedule for the 2011-2012 calendar is Nov. 1-2, 2011
(Tues.-Wed.), December 13, 2011 (Tuesday), January 24-25, 2012 (Tues.-Wed.),
March 13, 2012 (Tuesday), April 24-25 (Tuesday-Wednesday), June
19-20 (Tuesday-Wednesday), July 31 (Tuesday), September 12 (Wednesday),
October 23-24 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January
29-30, 2013 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
Section: Conferences, Online Chats and more:
Check out the Calendar section of NataliePace.com regularly. You
will find great opportunities to attend the most exclusive business
and Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and radio shows and
other educational opportunities - many are FREE! Get more
information on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of
NataliePace.com.
Don't miss
the Pace and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen
back to any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod
casts and are FREE!
BlogTalkRadio
offers a Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing
questions. Be sure to keep a list of your questions as they come
up, and join our ongoing dialog on peace and prosperity, getting
rich and enriching, green investing, the Thrive Budget and more
on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with
your needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page.
4. Euro
interest rates: ECB
rates are at 1.50% (main refinancing), 2.25% (marginal lending)
and 0.75% (deposit facility). The next meeting and interest rate
announcement are scheduled for October 6, 2011 at 2:30 p.m. CET.
(October 20, 2011 after that.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors
who "never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks
are trading at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in
NataliePace.com's article. This may be a good buying opportunity.
(If the stocks are not highlighted, then in our estimation, this
is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained in the news commentary.)
The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted may
not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are
never any guarantees in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments.
Consult your certified financial planner before making any changes
to your investment strategy. And remember that these "Stocks
on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your nest egg strategy
at all - not even for "pros." If you've never
traded individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or
"education" money. You should not stake your future on
anything that you don't have mastery over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
American
Superconductor (AMSC)
AOL
(AOL)
SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
iShares Australia Index (EWA)
Bank of Montreal (BMO)
Canadian Imperial Commerce Bank (CM)
iShares Chile Fund (ECH)
iShares China Small-Cap Index Fund (ECNS)
Cree (CREE)
iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM)
ENER1 (HEV)
FMC Corp. (FMC)
Galaxy Resources (GALXF)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Google (GOOG)
Green Dot (GDOT)
Jiayuan (DATE)
KLA Tencor (KLAC)
iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF)
MEMC Electronics (WFR)
Netflix (NFLX)
Powershares Lux Nanotech (PXN)
Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Fund (PBW)
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Satcon (SATC)
Sociedad Minera & Chimica (SQM)
Sohu (SOHU)
iShares S&P Tech Semiconductors (SOXX)
Sunpower (SPWRA)
Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
Tesla Motor Company (TSLA)
Trina Solar (TSL)
U.S. Gold (UXG)
Veeco (VECO)
VMWare (VMW)
Westpac (WBK)
Youku (YOKU)
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
Eldorado
Gold (EGO) on 9.7.11
HOT NEWS
on COOL STOCKS LIST
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Hot News List
|
Price
10.3.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
S&P
Emerging Middle East and Africa Fund
|
No
|
GAF
|
$60.06
|
$60.06
|
$79.97
$57.00
|
--
|
|
Read
"Travel
Rewards," from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Allscripts
Healthcare Solutions
|
No
|
MDRX
|
$18.01
$15.27
(8.15.11)
|
$16.99
|
$23.13
$14.30
|
-6% &
+11%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.
2nd
quarter 2011 earnings: GAAP revenue of $356.8 million, up
11% from a year ago. Bookings of $244.6 million, 15 percent
sequential growth compared to $212.4 million in the first
quarter of 2011. GAAP net income of $15.9 million.
Allscripts
Healthcare Solutions, Inc., formerly Allscripts-Misys Healthcare
Solutions, Inc. (Allscripts), is a provider of clinical software,
services, information and connectivity solutions that are
used by physicians and other healthcare providers to improve
the quality of healthcare.
Added
four strong executives to the team in July 2011. Cliff Meltzer,
a veteran development leader for Apple, Cisco, IBM and most
recently CA Technologies, joined Allscripts as Executive Vice
President, Solutions Development, with responsibility for
product development company-wide. Steve Shute, a veteran sales
leader, will be joining Allscripts as Executive Vice
President, Sales. Mr. Shute has held numerous executive leadership
positions at the IBM Corporation. Jackie Studer joined Allscripts
as Senior Vice President and General Counsel; she comes from
GE. John Guevara, a seasoned leader with extensive success
leading mission-critical operations for Microsoft and other
top technology companies, joined Allscripts as Chief Information
Officer.
|
|
American
Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$27.77
$7.77
(6.13.11)
|
$3.42
|
$38.88
$11.00
|
-88%
&
-56%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.
9.23.11:
American Superconductor Corporation AMSC,
a global power technologies company, today announced its recent
successes in the wind power and power grid markets, including
nearly $100 million in new contracts since the start of the
company’s fiscal year on April 1, 2011. AMSC signed contracts
with wind turbine manufacturers in China, India and Korea.
9.23.11:
Announced full year 2010 and 1Q 2011 results. Fiscal 2010
revenues were $286.6 million, which compares with $316.0 million
for fiscal 2009. The company reported a net loss of $186.3
million, or $3.95 per diluted share, for fiscal 2010. Fiscal
2010 revenues include the impact of applying a cash basis
of accounting to recognize revenue for shipments to certain
customers in China as of September 1, 2010 and for shipments
to Sinovel Wind Group Co., Ltd. (Sinovel) as of October 1,
2010. The company’s fiscal 2010 net loss includes $158.5 million
in aggregate one-time asset write-downs, impairments and accrued
charges recorded primarily in the fourth quarter of fiscal
2010 associated with the company’s accounting judgment that
its relationship with Sinovel will not continue. This compares
with net income of $16.2 million, or $0.36 per diluted share,
for fiscal year 2009.
Revenues
for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 were $9.1 million. This
compares with $97.2 million for the first quarter of fiscal
2010. The decline is due primarily to a lack of revenue from
Sinovel. The company reported a net loss for the quarter of
$37.7 million, $0.74 per diluted share. This compares with
net income of $9.2 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, for
the first quarter of fiscal 2010.
Net
of the advance payment of approximately $20.6 million for
the company’s proposed acquisition of The Switch Engineering
Oy, the company’s balance of cash, cash equivalents, marketable
securities and restricted cash on June 30, 2011 was $166.2
million. This compares with $245.5 million on March 31, 2011
and $120.7 million on June 30, 2010.
"Our
financial results for fiscal 2010 and the first quarter of
fiscal 2011 are a reflection of our past," said AMSC
President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel McGahn. "Our
efforts to build a better AMSC are now well underway. We have
reduced our cost structure by more than $30 million annually
and realigned our business into market-facing Wind and Grid
segments. We also have won nearly $100 million in new contracts
since the start of our fiscal year, which we believe will
help expand our customer base, diversify our revenue streams
and return the company to growth.
|
|
AOL
|
Yes
|
AOL
|
$21.22
$11.78
(8.15.11)
|
$11.53
|
$29.45
$10.06
|
-46%
&
flat
|
|
Read
"AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12 and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?" from Vol. 8,
issue 7.
On
8.11.11, AOL announced authorization to buyback $250 million
of its own shares. Meanwhile, rumors swirl that AOL will be
bought by a private equity firm.
2Q2011
earnings on August 4, 2011: revenue was $542 million, down
8% from a year ago. Net loss was $11.8 million, down 99% from
a year ago, when the loss was over $1 billion.
AOL
purchased Huffington Post for $315 million in Feb. 2011 (Huff
generates upwards of $50 million). AOL owns Moviefone, Mapquest,
among other popular destinations. Launched Editions on Aug.
2 for iPad - the magazine that customizes reading experiences
for each user.
Per
Nielsen
Net Ratings, AOL is the 10th most trafficked "web
parent companies" in the United States, with more time
online than the other top 9, at 51 minutes per person. Sales
for AOL is $2.30 billion annually, but there is plenty of
room for this company to come closer to Yahoo's $6 billion
in annual revenue and take a bite out of Google's $31 billion.
"AOL's
return to global advertising growth for the first time since
2008 reflects the hard work of our team and another meaningful
step forward in the comeback of the AOL brand," said Tim Armstrong,
Chairman and CEO. "AOL is singularly focused on becoming
the next great media company for the digital age and we have
positioned the Company's best people, technology and assets
in front of some of the largest opportunities on the internet."
|
|
Applied
Materials
2010
Company of the Year
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$13.10
|
$9.78
|
$16.94
$10.27
|
-25%
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August
1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the
Year! 3Q earnings will be announced on August 24, 2011 at
4:30 p.m. ET.
|
|
iShares
Australia Index
|
No
|
EWA
|
$22.84
|
$19.36
|
$28.36
$19.36
|
-16%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7. This fund was a
rock star on Wall Street in 2009-2010. Australia benefits
from having lower debt and a closer proximity to China than
the U.S. Also, is rich in natural resources (needed by China),
lower in unemployment (at 5.1%) and avoided the bank bailouts
that sank the U.S. and U.K. Queensland rains and flooding
in 2010 and 2011 impacted GDP growth in the most recent quarter
(negative GDP growth), however, GDP growth has been stronger
than the U.S. and Western Europe.
Activate
link:
http://www.nataliepace.com/newsletters/members/news.php?np=yes&issue=806/806&article=09
|
|
Bank
of Montreal
|
No
|
BMO
|
$54.08
|
$54.08
|
$66.64
$53.36
|
--
|
|
Refer
to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details.
Canada's banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for
global capital in 2009; Australia was #2. Canada has a higher
debt to GDP ratio than the U.S., however, so don't dive in
without testing the water first. Check out the article.
|
|
Canadian
Imperial Bank
RISK:
Low
|
No
|
CM
|
$67.64
|
$67.64
|
$88.76
$67.05
|
--
|
|
Refer
to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details.
Canada's banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for
global capital in 2009; Australia was #2. Canada has a higher
debt to GDP ratio than the U.S., however, so don't dive in
without testing the water first. Check out the article.
|
|
iShares
Chile Fund
|
No
|
ECH
|
$65.05
|
$51.16
|
$80.38
$51.16
|
-22%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
iShares
MSCI China Small Cap Index Fund
|
No
|
ECNS
|
$48.38
$46.61
(6.24.11)
|
$31.04
|
$58.80
$31.04
|
-46%
&
-44%
|
|
Read
"Travel
Rewards," from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Cree
|
Yes
|
CREE
|
$52.10
$32.23
|
$23.35
|
$83.38
$23.35
|
-55%
&
-27%
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, and August 1,
2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company. Revenue growth
is solid. Sales to Asia are strong. Future likes bright! And
the price is finally right.
4Q
And FY 2011 earnings on August 9, 2011. 4Q revenue was $243.0
million, with net income of $19.8 million. Full year revenue
was $987.6 million, up 14% from a year ago. GAAP net income
for the year was $146.5 million, down 4% from 2010.
President
Obama visited CREE on June 15, 2011 to discuss policies to
spur economic growth. In his remarks, President Obama stated,
"So today the small business that a group of N.C. State engineering
students founded almost 25 years ago is a global company.
Next month, your new production line will begin running 24/7.
So you're helping to lead a clean energy revolution. You're
helping lead the comeback of American manufacturing. This
is a company where the future will be won."
"As
we look ahead to Q1, demand has improved from earlier in the
calendar year and we are well positioned to continue to lead
the LED lighting revolution," Chuck Swoboda, Cree chairman
and CEO said, in a press release.
|
|
iShares
Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EEM
|
$41.27
|
$34.29
|
$50.30
$34.29
|
-16%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
ENER1
|
Yes
|
HEV
|
$3.68
$1.06
(6.1.11)
|
$0.14
|
$5.90
$0.14
|
-96%
&
-88%
|
|
Read
"Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car
(Again)?" in Vol. 8, issue 10, "Earth
Hour" in Vol. 8, issue 4 and "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)" from Vol. 6, issue
4. Ener1 develops and manufactures compact, high performance
lithium-ion batteries to power the next generation of hybrid,
plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
2Q
earnings will be late. Company filed for an extension on Aug.
9, 2011. On August 16, 2011, ENER1 announced that they will
be restating their earnings to reflect Think Holdings affect
on the company. "All of the restatements involve non-cash
items and will have no impact on the company's current or
previously stated cash position or cash flows," according
to the company. NASDAQ has issued a letter to the company
notifying them that they are out of compliance (due to the
late earnings reports). Short sellers are having a field day
with the stock. Having the price at 40 cents a share is a
big problem as well, but one that financially savvy CEOs,
like HEV's, know how to solve (usually with a reverse split).
Activate
link:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/07/29/president-obama-announces-new-fuel-economy-standards
|
|
FMC
Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$65.83
|
$65.83
|
$93.00
$66.58
|
--
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)" from Vol. 6, issue
4 and "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue
2.
|
|
Galaxy
Resources
RISK:
HIGH
(off
the boards, thinly traded)
|
No
|
GALXF
|
$1.18
$0.71
|
$0.58
|
$1.80
$0.55
|
-51%
&
-18%
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue
2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and China.
Traded off the boards in the US, but is listed on the Australia
Stock Exchange.
Galaxy
has two strong aspects - Australia-based company in
an emerging market - lithium. Galaxy Resources Limited
(ASX: GXY) is an international S&P/ASX 300 Index Company
which is soon to become one of the world's leading producers
of lithium - the essential component for powering the world's
fast expanding fleet of hybrid and electric cars. By
2012, Galaxy's Mt Cattlin mine will be the world's second
largest hard rock producer of lithium and through the development
of its value adding lithium carbonate plant (17,000tpa), the
Company will be the largest and lowest cost lithium producer
in China.
Annual
meeting was held on Friday, May 13, 2011 at 10 a.m. in Perth,
Australia. Loss for 2010 was $29.6 million. Had $28 million
in cash before the $120 million private placement in April
2011.
Announced
private placement of $120 million at $1.10 share on April
14, 2011. The issue was substantially oversubscribed with
strong interest coming out of Europe, Asia, US and Australia.
Galaxy
wholly-owns and operates the Mt. Cattlin mine, which is currently
producing spodumene concentrate. Galaxy's Jiangsu lithium
carbonate plant, once completed, will have a design capacity
of 17,000 tpa of lithium carbonate, which Galaxy expects would
make it one of the largest plants in China converting hard
rock lithium mineral concentrates into lithium compounds and
chemicals.
Lithium
compounds such as lithium carbonate are forecast to be in
high future demand due to advances in long life batteries
and sophisticated electronics including mobile phones and
computers.
Galaxy
Resources has positioned itself to meet this lithium
future by not only mining the lithium, but also by downstream
processing to supply lithium carbonate to the expanding Asian
market.
|
|
Goldman
Sachs
|
No
|
GS
|
$108.34
|
$90.08
|
$175.34
$103.16
|
-17%
|
|
Look
for an article in the October 2011 ezine. Reports 3Q 2011
results on October 18, 2011 at 8:00 a.m. ET (before the markets
open). The Feds issued a "formal enforcement action" against
Goldman for mortgage related problems with Litton Loan Servicing.
Goldman sold Litman on Sept. 1, 2011, but acknowledges that
they are responsible for the enforcement action. Goldman has
been beaten up and their share price might continue to be
battered in the near term. However, this company is at the
top of the game in terms of Mergers and Acquisitions, LBOs
(Leveraged Buy Outs), and is trading far beneath the book
value of its shares, which were at 142 on Sept. 7, 2011.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$540.96
|
$492.71
|
$642.96
$447.65
|
-9%
|
|
See
Vol. 8, issue 2 article, "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google," and Vol. 6, issue
5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes." Excellent company and great
anchor for your large caps in the nest egg, with one huge
hitch - the company lost its leader on April 1, 2011.
Larry Page became the CEO, moving Dr. Eric Schmidt, whom everyone
considers to be the mastermind from Google the search engine
to Google the ubiquitous Internet and phone behemoth, to executive
chairman. Sergey Brin will handle "strategic projects"
without a real title, except "co-founder."
Announced
2Q results on July 14, 2011. Google reported revenues of $9.03
billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2011, an increase of
32% compared to the second quarter of 2010. Net income was
$2.51 billion, compared to $1.84 billion a year ago.
Cash -
As of June 30, 2011, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable
securities were $39.1 billion. No debt.
Headcount
- On a worldwide basis, Google employed 28,768 full-time
employees as of June 30, 2011.
|
|
Green
Dot
|
Yes
|
GDOT
|
$41.25
$29.95
(8.15.11)
|
$29.46
|
$65.10
$24.94
|
-28%
&
flat
|
|
Read
"IPO
of the Year" from
Vol. 7, issue 3.
2Q
results on July 28, 2011: Total operating revenues increased
27% from a year ago, to $115 million. Net income was $12.1
million for the first quarter of 2011 compared to $12.5 million
for the first quarter of 2010. Gross dollar volume was at
$3.6 billion this quarter, up 48% from the same quarter 2010.
Cool
progress and steady, though not stellar growth, in a space
that is bound to see a lot more competition (from MasterCard
and Visa to name two). WalMart is a partner and investor.
|
|
Hoku
Corporation
RISK:
HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$1.75
(3.15.11)
|
$1.55
|
$14.55
$1.41
|
-81%
&
-11%
|
|
Read
"One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue
5, "The
Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon,"
in the Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10. 1Q earnings announced
on August 11, 2011.
Revenue
for the quarters ended June 30, 2011 and 2010 were $485,000
and $930,000, respectively. Net loss was $10.2 million, or
$0.19 per share, compared to $2.7 million, or $0.05 per share,
for the same period in fiscal 2011. The increased net loss
is attributable to HOKU's increasing operating costs, including
labor and materials, as we begin commissioning and prepare
for the operation of HOKU's polysilicon plant, and $5.3 million
in expenses from payments to Idaho Power Company pursuant
to HOKU's electric service agreement with them. Scott Paul,
chief executive officer of Hoku Corporation, said, "During
the last quarter we have continued our construction and commissioning
activities at Hoku Materials as we prepare to commence operations
in the weeks ahead, and we have maintained our focus on delivering
investment-grade photovoltaic (PV) systems at Hoku Solar."
8.4.11:
Forest City Hawaii and Hawaiian Electric Company have reached
a power purchase agreement for up to one megawatt of solar
photovoltaic (PV) power to be generated at the Kapolei Sustainable
Energy Park in Kapolei, Oahu. Hoku Solar, a subsidiary of
Hoku Corporation (NASDAQ: HOKU), will design and install the
project using more than 4,200 solar panels atop a concrete
racking system.
Tianwei
has invested more than $129 million of its own capital in
Hoku, and they have provided support for another $244 million
in debt financing from banks in China. Tianwei continues to
support the financing required to bring HOKU's 4,000 metric
ton polysilicon facility online.
Has
only $18 million in cash... Will need to raise more. Again...
Unless they start bringing in revenue from the silicon manufacturing
facility in Idaho.
|
|
Jiayuan
|
No
|
DATE
|
$12.70
|
$7.21
|
$16.12
$7.21
|
-45%
|
|
Read
"The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Jiayuan
is the Chinese Match.com.
|
|
KLA
Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$40.59
$35.93
|
$37.23
|
$51.83
$26.69
|
-9%
&
+4%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol.
7, issue 8.
4Q
and full year earnings on July 28, 2011: $892 million revenue
in 4Q, up from $559 million in 2010. Net income more than
doubled to $245 million, from $113 million last year. Full
year revenues were $3.175 billion, compared to $1.820 billion
a year ago. Net income was $794 million, compared to $212
million last year.
Has
over $2 billion in cash.
On
July 7, 2011, the Associated Press reported that, "UBS
Investment Research analyst Stephen Chin said in a note to
clients that the Milpitas, Calif., company is well positioned
to keep sales up even as the semiconductor market hits bottom
early in 2012." KLA-Tencor will be able to reap more
revenue once the market turns around. China's new target price
for KLAC is $49.50.
Watch
my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
iShares
S&P Latin America 40 Index
|
No
|
ILF
|
$43.92
|
$37.84
|
$55.38
$37.84
|
-16%
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 8.
|
|
LDK SOLAR
|
No
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$4.94
(3.2.09)
|
$2.70
|
$15.10
$2.70
|
-91%
&
-46%
|
|
Read
the articles, "One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue
5, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
in Vol. 5, issue 4.
2Q 2011
earnings were announced on August 29, 2011. Net sales of $499.4
million, a decrease of 34.8% sequentially and a decrease of
11.6% year-over-year;. Net loss was $47.9 million, compared
to a net profit of $78.6 million a year ago. During the preparation
of its second quarter 2011 financial results, LDK Solar's
management determined that an inventory write-down of $52.9
million was required as a result of the significant drop in
market price for wafers and modules during the second quarter.
As a result, gross margin and results from operations were
negatively impacted in the second quarter of fiscal 2011.
"Our
second quarter results reflect the challenging solar industry
dynamics that resulted from recent policy revisions in Europe
and consequently reduced demand for PV products," stated Xiaofeng
Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "Lower pricing across
the supply chain negatively impacted our financial results
for the quarter.
"In recent
weeks, we have seen average selling prices begin to stabilize
and improvement to order patterns. We have continued to gain
traction in expanding our presence in key markets such as
North America and China. In the U.S., our recently established
sales and marketing operation has already begun to gain traction
in winning large module contracts. In China, we are encouraged
by the announcement of the unified national feed-in-tariff
program. We have an established, strong market position in
our domestic market and see significant long-term growth opportunities.
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
Yes
|
WFR
|
$11.99
$6.53
(8.15.11)
|
$4.69
|
$19.31
$4.69
|
-61%
&
-28%
|
|
Read
"One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue
5 and "The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.
2Q
earnings on August 3, 2011. GAAP net sales of $745.6 million,
an increase of 66% from a year ago. MEMC reported GAAP
net income for quarter of $47.3 million.
MEMC
has $652 million in cash.
The
Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis interrupted
operations at MEMC Electronics Utsunomiya facility between
March 11, 2011 and early April 2011.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$24.88
$23.71
(6.15.11)
|
$24.53
|
$29.46
$22.73
|
Flat
&
+4%
|
|
Watch
my appearance on CNBC,
outlining the reasons Skype is a very hot acquisition for
Microsoft, and read my article, "One
Very Hot IPO" from
the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue. 9. Microsoft purchased
Skype on May 10, 2011 for $8.5 billion in cash. I added Microsoft
to the Hot News list on 5.15.11.
|
|
PowerShares
Lux Nanotech
|
No
|
PXN
|
$8.87
$7.32
(8.15.11)
|
$5.54
|
$10.85
$5.54
|
-38%
&
-40%
|
|
Potential
hot industry for your pie chart. Read the 2011
Company of the Year article from December
2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 12. Watch my 2.3.11 report on the
LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$113.25
|
$113.25
|
$304.79
$98.54
|
--
|
|
Read
"Blockbuster’s
Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5.
Content continues to lag behind the competition. Great, innovative
company, with a lot of competition.
2Q
results announced July 25, 2011: $789 million in revenue;
$68 million in net income. 75% of new subscribers are streaming
video. Netflix has over 25 million global subscribers, up
70% from 15 million a year ago! This is all great news. The
problem is the worldwide recession. Best price for this company
in a long time.
As
Netflix acknowledges in their earnings report:
Over
the past 12 months, both Hulu Plus and free video on Amazon
Prime have launched. Dish Networks is likely to launch a substantial
subscription streaming effort under the Blockbuster brand.
Netflix's competitive strategy relative to other streaming
services is simply to grow as fast as the company can, so
they can afford more content, more marketing, and more R&D
than the competitors.
Unfortunately,
with Blockbuster's exclusive access to first-run movies and
Dish Networks reach, Netflix is likely to take a big hit.
According to Ira Bahr, Chief Marketing Officer for DISH Network.
"DISH Network now offers more than twice as many movie choices
as any other TV provider. If you love movies, you're going
to love DISH Network." New DISH subscribers now receive 3
months of Blockbuster by mail free.
|
|
PowerShares
Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.91
$7.24
|
$5.02
|
$11.42
$5.02
|
-50%
&
-31%
|
|
Read
"$100/Barrel
Oil" from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue
3.
|
|
Rio
Tinto
|
No
|
RIO
|
$59.86
|
$42.87
|
$76.67
$42.87
|
-29%
|
|
Gold,
copper and other commodities mining. Based out of Australia.
Mines worldwide, but great way to capitalize on Australia's
robust economy.
Half
Year 2011 results were released on August 4, 2011. Record
underlying earnings of $7.8 billion, 35 per cent above 2010's
half year results. Net debt reduced to $4.3 billion at 31
December 2010, from $18.9 billion at 31 December 2009. $5
billion share buyback program now through year end 2012. Net
earnings are up to $14 billion in 2010, over $4.9 billion
in 2009. Chairman Jan du Plessis said "This year's record
results reflect a combination of strong commodity markets,
first class assets and excellent operational performance at
our managed operations.
Prices
improved for nearly all of Rio Tinto's major commodities:
copper prices were up 47 per cent, molybdenum prices were
up 45 per cent, gold prices were up 26 per cent and aluminium
prices were 31 per cent higher than 2009. Demand and prices
for diamonds and minerals improved significantly as the worldwide
economy emerged from the global financial recession.
|
|
Satcon
2011
Company of the Year
|
Yes
|
SATC
|
$3.77
$1.14
(8.15.11)
|
$0.89
|
$5.51
$0.89
|
-76%
&
-22%
|
|
Read
"2011
Company of the Year," from Vol. 8, issue
4 and "$100/Barrel
Oil" from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8,
issue 3.
8.11.11:
Satcon announced that 10 of their 1 MW Prism Platform™
Solutions will be used in the New Jersey Oak Solar PV Power
Plant in Fairfield Township, Cumberland County, New Jersey.
2Q
2011 earnings on August 9, 2011: revenue was $45.5 million,
up 64.7% from last year
Net
loss was $20.1 million.
"The
market environment in the second quarter was challenging.
Despite the strength of North America, the market conditions
in Europe and Asia had negative effects on our overall performance,"
said Steve Rhoades, President and Chief Executive Officer
of Satcon. "In addition, we incurred one-time charges
associated with inventory, restructuring, and the strategic
decision to accelerate product development. Although these
measures have resulted in a higher than expected operating
loss, they have effectively strengthened our ability to achieve
our revenue and cost targets by the end of 2011."
At
March 31, 2011, the company's backlog, which consists of purchase
orders from its customers, was $55.2 million. Backlog
from North America represented 74% of orders to be delivered.
Asia contributed 15%, while Europe contributed 611%.
On
5.23.11: Satcon announced that it had achieved the number
one position in market share for the North American solar
inverter market.
On
5.13.11 Satcon announced that Aaron M. Gomolak has replaced
Donald R. Peck as Satcon's Executive Vice President, Chief
Financial Officer and Treasurer. This was a last minute shuffle.
Not a good sign.
|
|
Sociedad
Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$46.39
|
$46.39
|
$67.75
$46.00
|
--
|
|
This
is a great company that manufactures lithium for the electric
car & IT industry and potash for agriculture. Businesses
include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium. Looking
for a better buy-in.
Read
the article,"Treasure
Hunting," in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article
"Life
Begins with Lithium," from Vol. 6, issue 4.
SQM
began paying a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592
per share, with US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11,
2011.
|
|
Sohu
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$81.67
|
$47.42
|
$109.37
$46.99
|
-43%
|
|
Read
"The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Sohu
is a Chinese mega portal, with gaming, news, search and TV.
|
|
iShares
S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
SOXX
|
$44.22
|
$44.22
|
$64.19
$44.17
|
--
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$24.83
$13.07
(7.1.10)
|
$7.14
|
$23.36
$7.14
|
-72%
&
-45%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3.
2Q
2011 earnings on August 9, 2011. $592.3 million in revenue,
an increase of 54% over the previous quarter. Net loss of
$148 million. $246 million in cash on hand. Long term debt
and liabilities of $1.8 billion.
August
29, 2011: Akuo Solar, a subsidiary of Paris-based Akuo Energy,
has ordered 75,000 high efficiency SunPower solar panels for
Akuo's planned 24-megawatt solar development. The development
consists of two power plants that will be located in the Provence-Alps-Cotes
d'Azur Region in the South of France. Construction on the
project has begun and is expected to be completed by the end
of 2011.
Sunpower
panels are the most efficient in the world and have powered
Solar Decathlon winning teams. Maryland, the 2011 Solar Decathlon
winner, used Sanyo solar panels, but needed six more panels
to compete in the energy contests with #2 ranked Purdue (which
used Sunpower).
Ford
and Sunpower inked a deal on Aug. 10, 2011 to offer rooftop
solar panels to Ford Focus owners, offering them to "Drive
Green for Life."
|
|
Suntech
Power Holdings (solar)
|
No
|
STP
|
$14.26
$7.16
(6.13.11)
|
$1.77
|
$15.55
$1.77
|
-87%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's
largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer.
P/E on 8.31.11 was 3.50.
Suntech began manufacturing in the US on Oct. 8, 2010, at
its Goodyear, AZ HQ. Dept. of Energy Secretary Steven
Chu visited Suntech and reported on it to The
National Press.
2Q
2011 earnings were reported on August 22, 2011. Total net
revenues were $831 million in the second quarter of 2011,
representing a sequential decrease of 5.3%, and an increase
of 32.9% year-over-year. Net loss was -$259.5 million. " "Operationally,
we implemented a number of initiatives to improve our supply
flexibility and lower our cost structure. Specifically, we
discontinued a long term agreement with MEMC and expanded
internal wafer capacity to 1.2GW. We also continued to drive
solar innovation with the launch of two new high performance
product lines that we are shipping in large-scale today,"
according to Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Chairman and CEO.
9.28.11:
Suntech announced that they had delivered 150,000 solar panels
for utility-scale electricity generation by Cupertino Electric
for Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) under the
utility's five-year, 500MW clean energy initiative.
8.24.11:
Suntech will supply 28.7MW (DC) of solar panels for a 23MW
(AC) solar power plant in Niland, California for SunPeak.
|
|
Tesla
|
No
|
TSLA
|
$23.73
|
$23.73
|
$36.42
$14.98
|
--
|
|
Read
"Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car
(Again)?" "Tesla
Trades on NASDAQ" from Vol. 7, issue
7.
Should
you buy now? Very volatile stock. Also, beta models of the
new sedan are just rolling out and production is in the early
phase. It's at a former Toyota factory, which places a lot
of ducks in a row, however, ramping up for production is something
that can be wrought with delays and other unexpected kinks.
Combine that with competition for the Leaf and the Volt, and
you have a more vulnerable company. The Leaf is lower-priced,
but also has a lot less battery power and distance. The Volt
is a hybrid, more like the Prius. However, the Volt won the
2011 Car of the Year Award! Strong board and management team.
2Q
results were announced on August 12, 2011. Revenues increased
to $58 million, Double the revenue of a year ago. Net loss
was $59 million. Cash = $318 million. Long term debt: $134
million. Total cash burn from inception to date is $396 million.
Toyota
and Tesla announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build
electric RAV4s beginning in 2012. The production line will
be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric powertrains will
be shipped by Tesla from California.
Very
exciting car company. But very early stage, and may be in
need of raising more and more dough to stay on production
track before the RAV4 and Model S hit stores. Be careful.
|
|
Trina
Solar LTD.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$27.92
$14.75
(6.13.11)
|
$5.58
|
$31.89
$5.58
|
-80%
&
-63%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. 2Q earnings
will be announced on August 23, 2011 at 8:00 a.m. ET. P/E
on 8.31.11 was 3.83.
2Q
earnings on 8.23.11. Net revenues were $579.5 million, an
increase of 5.2% sequentially and 56.3% year-over-year. Net
income was $11.8 million, compared to net income of $47.7
million in the first quarter of 2011 and $38.7 million in
the second quarter of 2010.
"In
the third quarter, we expect a significant reduction in our
manufacturing costs due in large part to recently completed
renegotiation of the majority of our long term polysilicon
feedstock and wafer agreements," according to Mr. Jifan Gao,
Chairman and CEO of Trina Solar. He continued, "We are very
encouraged by China's solar feed-in-tariff updates announced
on August 1, which we believe reflect the improved economics
and efficiency of solar energy. Since our recently announced
agreements to supply two large-scale solar projects in Qinghai,
we have seen increased opportunities to expand our domestic
shipment allocations as the market expands."
|
|
U.S.
Gold
|
Yes
|
UXG
|
$5.57
|
$3.75
|
$9.87
$0.50
|
-33%
|
|
Note:
U.S. Gold is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold
exploration company, based in Nevada and Mexico which has
begun the process of filing for production permits, with a
goal of producing gold by 2014.
Added
back to the Hot List on June 8, 2011 (in a special Subscriber
Only Alert). On June 14, 2011 the Company announced that Mr.
McEwen proposed to combine the Company with Minera Andes to
create a high growth, low-cost, mid-tier silver producer focused
on the Americas.
On
August 31, 2011, U.S. Gold announced: that the Company has
approved Phase 1 development of its El Gallo project in Sinaloa,
Mexico, with mining expected to commence mid-2012. Phase 1
will focus on the permitted satellite gold deposits at the
project and is expected to produce 30,000 ounces of gold per
year after initial ramp up. This decision is expected to generate
cash flows approximately two years earlier than originally
planned at a minimal capital cost and will help fund Phase
2, which is forecasted to produce an additional 5 million
ounces of silver per year, beginning in 2014.
U.S.
Gold began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov.
2, 2010, and has a goal of qualifying for the S&P 500
by 2015. US Gold explores for gold and silver in the Americas
and is advancing its El Gallo Project in Mexico and its Gold
Bar Project in Nevada towards production. US Gold's shares
are listed on the NYSE and the TSX under the symbol UXG, trading
1.9 million shares daily during the past twelve months. Added
to the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global
Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago Board of Options
Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the AMEX stock
exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
U.S.
Gold was the 2009
Company of the Year. The article was featured
in the October 2009 ezine, Vol. 6, issue 10.
|
|
Veeco
|
Yes
|
VECO
|
$42.74
|
$24.01
|
$56.05
$24.01
|
-44%
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12. VECO was
added on 7.6.11, with a special alert sent to subscribers
at that time.
Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
On
8.30.11, Veeco opened a new tech center in Taiwan. According
to John R. Peeler, Veeco's Chief Executive Officer, "The
TTC is the newest part of our significant expansion in Asia
that we announced last fall. Veeco will invest over $30 million
to dramatically expand our Asia footprint to help customers
continue to accelerate the pace of adoption of LEDs for consumer
electronics and solid-state lighting, including additional
new R&D/demo and process support sites in Shanghai, China
(opened May 2011) and Seoul, Korea (opening in 2012)."
Reported
2Q on 7.28.11. $265 million in revenue for the 2Q, up 19%
from a year ago, when revenue was compared to $221.4 million.
Net income of $19.2 million, compared to $50 million last
year.
What
happened to the income? Veeco took a $51 million loss in asset
impairment and restructuring charges related to the CIGS Solar
Systems business. This unprofitable business will be discontinued.
Assets and personnel have been transferred to the College
of Nanoscale Science and Engineering (CNSE).
Quarter-end
backlog was $558.2 million. Cash on hand is $198 million.
John
R. Peeler, Veeco's Chief Executive Officer, commented, "LED
& Solar revenues were $219 million, including $206 million
in MOCVD, and Data Storage revenues were $46 million, the
highest quarterly level in five years. Veeco met our quarterly
guidance, yet timing of revenue continues to be impacted by
the longer order-to-revenue cycle times associated with the
high percentage of MOCVD business currently coming from China,
primarily due to customer facility readiness and credit tightening."
Mr.
Peeler added, "We have seen spectacular customer reaction
to our new MaxBright MOCVD system - in the second quarter
we booked over $100 million of MaxBright systems - 40%
of our total MOCVD bookings. We believe customers are clearly
recognizing that MaxBright is simply the best tool on the
market to drive down LED manufacturing costs."
During
the second quarter, under its Board authorized share buy-back
program, Veeco purchased $7.8 million in stock at an average
price of $46.91 per share. Veeco also completed the redemption
of its outstanding Convertible Subordinated Notes for $98.1
million aggregate principal amount and completed the purchase
of a privately-held company which supplies certain critical
components to our MOCVD business for $28.3 million. Veeco
purchased an additional $71.9 million of stock, at an average
price of $42.21 per share, so far during the month of July
(as of 7/26/11). Since the $200 million buy-back program was
authorized last August, Veeco has repurchased a total of 3
million shares for $117.8 million.
|
|
VMWare
|
No
|
VMW
|
$77.90
|
$77.90
|
$111.43
$71.04
|
--
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.
Announced
2Q results on July 19, 2011: Revenues were $921 million, an
increase of 37% from the second quarter of 2010. Net income
for the second quarter was $220 million, or $0.51 per diluted
share, compared to $75 million, or $0.18 per diluted share,
for the second quarter of 2010. Cash, cash equivalents and
short-term investments were $3.7 billion and unearned revenue
was $2.1 billion as of June 30, 2011.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$92.34
|
$92.34
|
$138.58
$92.34
|
--
|
|
Issued
it's half-year results on May 4, 2011. Go to Westpac.com.au
to access. Australian banks fared far better than the rest
of the world banks. So did Canadian banks. P/E is good, but
the debt is quite high, at 4.34 X equity (on 5.15.11).
Key
financial highlights (comparisons are with prior year):
Cash
earnings $3.2 billion, up 7%
Statutory
net profit of $4 billion, up 38%
Westpac's
Chief Executive Officer, Gail Kelly, said: ""Key
indicators were generally positive during the half with the
economy generating good growth, low unemployment and moderate
inflation. Despite this, both consumers and businesses remain
relatively cautious and while confidence is expected to pick-up,
lending growth is likely to be moderate in the immediate future."
|
|
Youku
|
Yes
|
YOKU
|
$25.06
|
$15.88
|
$69.95
$15.88
|
-36%
|
|
Read
"The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Youku
is the Chinese Netflix and YouTube.
|
Deleted
Companies 2010-2011:
Deleted
1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10:
Galaxy Resources with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21%
gains. Deleted 9.13.10: American Superconductor (flat)
& AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster busted out
in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10:
ENER1 was deleted with flat performance. 11.11.10: ENER1 was deleted
with 37% gains. VECO was deleted with 2% & 41% gains. 12.1.10:
KLIC was deleted with 12% gains. 1.14.11: Advanced Materials was
deleted with 30% gains. 2.2.11: BEARX with losses of 14%. 2.14.11:
U.S. Gold with 14.5X gains. 6.13.11: EPU with flat performance.
9.7.11: Deleted Eldorado Gold with 38% & 52% gains.
Deleted
Companies 2008-2009:
60 winners
and 9 losers.
Recently
Deleted from the Hot News list:
Eldorado
Gold on 9.7.11.
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Hot News List
|
Price
9.7.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Eldorado
Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$15.48
$14.11
(6.13.11)
|
$21.39
|
$22.12
$13.93
|
+38%
&
+52%
|
|
Read
"Investing
in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9.
I'm taking
EGO off the Hot News List because in the volatile trading
climate of today, you must capture gains early and often.
This is a wonderful gain in just a few short months. P/E is
high at 52, and gold could retreat if stocks and dollar start
to recover.
Eldorado
is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively
growing businesses in
Brazil
China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. We are
one of the lowest cost pure gold
producers.
Produced
162,429 ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost of
$397 per ounce (total cash cost $477 per ounce). Sold 162,164
ounces of gold at an average realized price of $1,510 per
ounce.
Net income
was $74.9 million, compared to $55.7 million a year ago.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we're thinking of adding to the Hot List
and some are stinkers we're thinking of adding to the Cooling Off
List. Read carefully to identify which is which! Note
that right now most of our favorite companies are on the Watch List.
Getting the price right is as important as picking the right company.
Never pay retail!
Recent
Additions:
Eldorado
Gold (EGO) on 9.7.11
Toyota (TM) on 8.31.11
Recent
Deletions:
SPDR
S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF) moved to Hot List
on 10.1.11
Canadian
Imperial Commerce Bank (CM) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
FMC Corp. (FMC) moved to the Hot List on 10.1.11
Google (GOOG) moved to the Hot List on 9.1.11
Netflix (NFLX) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
Sociedad Minera & Chimica (SQM) moved to the Hot List on 10.1.11
Sohu (SOHU) moved to the Hot list on 9.1.11
iShares S&P Tech Semiconductors (SOXX) moved to Hot List on
10.1.11
Tesla Motor Company (TSLA) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
VMWare (VMW) moved to Hot List on 10.1.11
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to List
|
Price
10.3.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Amazon
|
No
|
AMZN
|
$168.07
|
$211.55
|
$244.00
$151.40
|
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a good price. P/E ratio is very high, at 98 on August
1, 2011.
|
|
Apple
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$351.99
|
$374.02
|
$422.86
$277.77
|
|
|
One of
the largest company in the world - trading #1 spot with
ExxonMobil since August 10, 2011. Buy at a good price. Also,
be aware that Steve Jobs is on medical leave of absence. Tim
Cook, current COO, has been running company many times over
the years during Jobs' medical leaves and investors may be
accustomed to having him run the show, if Jobs should announce
his resignation.
3Q results
were announced on July 19, 2011: The Company posted record
third quarter revenue of $28.57 billion and record second
quarter net profit of $7.31 billion, or $7.79 per diluted
share. These results compare to revenue of $15.70 billion
and net quarterly profit of $3.25 billion, or $3.51 per diluted
share, in the year-ago quarter.
The Company
sold 20.34 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 142
percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold
9.25 million iPads during the quarter, a 183 percent unit
increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 3.95
million Macs during the quarter, a 14 percent unit increase
over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.54 million iPods,
a 20 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.
"We're
thrilled to deliver our best quarter ever, with revenue up
82 percent and profits up 125 percent," said Steve Jobs,
Apple's CEO. "Right now, we're very focused and excited
about bringing iOS 5 and iCloud to our users this fall."
Revenue
and profits are expected to pull back in the 4th
quarter, however. According to Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's
CFO, "Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011,
we expect revenue of about $25 billion and we expect diluted
earnings per share of about $5.50."
How much
of a threat are the competing Smart Phones to the iPhone?
Since iPhones and iPads are primary drivers of revenue for
Apple, it pays to compare...
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$124.96
|
$104.59
|
$165.96
$94.33
|
|
|
Hot company.
Buy at a god price. P/E 69 on 10.3.11.
|
|
Berkshire
Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.B
|
$85.30
|
$69.90
|
$87.65
$65.35
|
|
|
Warren
Buffett's company has more exposure to the bank bailouts (Wells
Fargo and American Express to name just two) than most investors
realize. And, contrary to what he used to say, the company
engages in active trading and hedging. Plus, he's 82 and doesn't
have a clear, young successor in place. (Last one, David Sokol,
had to resign on March 30, 2011.)
2Q 2011
(announced on 8.5.11): Net earnings $2.7 billion, compared
to $3.074 billion a year ago.
|
|
Eldorado
Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$21.39
|
$16.46
|
$22.12
$13.93
|
|
|
Read
"Investing
in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9.
Eldorado
is a gold producing, exploration and development company actively
growing businesses in Brazil China, Greece, and Turkey and
surrounding regions. They are one of the lowest cost pure
gold producers.
Produced
162,429 ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost of
$397 per ounce (total cash cost $477 per ounce). Sold 162,164
ounces of gold at an average realized price of $1,510 per
ounce.
Net income
was $74.9 million, compared to $55.7 million a year ago.
|
|
iShares
JP Morgan Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EMB
|
$104.63
|
$104.15
|
$114.14
$103.57
|
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
First
Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$58.05
|
$175.45
$58.05
|
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again,"
article in Vol. 5, iss 4. 2Q 2011 earnings on 8.5.11: Sales
and income are both down. Net sales were $533 million in the
quarter, a decrease of $34.5 million from the first quarter
of 2011, primarily due to lower average selling prices (ASPs)
as solar photovoltaic (PV) policy uncertainties in Italy,
Germany and France adversely impacted demand in the second
quarter. Second quarter net income per fully diluted share
was $0.70, down from $1.33 in the first quarter of 2011 and
$1.84 in the second quarter of 2010. Quarter over quarter,
the net income decrease was primarily driven by lower ASPs
and a higher tax rate, partially offset by higher volume sold.
Year over year, the net income decrease was principally driven
by lower ASPs and increased investment in the Utilities Systems
Business and research and development.
CFO Jens
Meyerhoff is leaving to "self-reflect" on his next steps.
First
Solar uses cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer
sunlight into useable energy. First Solar's sales are flat,
whereas sales with the silicon-based solar suppliers are up
80-100% year over year. The shift to silicon is occurring
for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs
are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn't as abundant
or as efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article
for more details. They still list CdTe as the semiconductor
of choice on their website, citing old data from 2004 that
this is a good strategy. Be forewarned!
|
|
Ford
Motor Co.
|
No
|
F
|
$14.55
|
$9.34
|
$18.97
$9.34
|
|
|
Read
"How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford" from
Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive,
but it owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any
investment here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler
and GM are present here - lots of debt, pensions and
Other Post Employment Benefit Obligations. Ford built cars
that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest).
And for that they get a big bravo.
Ford's
total debt is over $100 billion and their credit rating is
below investment grade, at BB- (as of 2.1.11, by S&P),
with a Positive Outlook.
|
|
General
Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$33.11
|
$20.16
|
$39.48
$20.16
|
|
|
Read
"Hot
IPO," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol.
7, issue 9. Chevy Volt won Motor Trend's 2011 Car of
the Year, but can GM regain market share from worldwide market
leader, Toyota? GM may have shed a lot of debt in the bankruptcy
filing, however, the company's profit margins remain very
slim at 4%.
|
|
Kulicke
& Soffa
|
No
|
KLIC
|
$8.71
|
$6.87
|
$12.72
$5.27
|
|
|
Read
"Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010
and August 1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. Announced
3Q earnings on August 2, 2011.
3Q earnings
report on 8.2.11: Net revenue of $294.4 million and net income
of $70.7 million, higher than expected. 4Q is expected to
soften tremendously - to $155-$175 million revenue...
Cash,
cash equivalents and investments increased to $335.5 million
up $53.7 million from the prior quarter.
|
|
iShares
MSCI Indonesia Index
|
No
|
EIDO
|
$30.72
|
$23.95
|
$32.92
$22.80
|
|
|
Read
"Travel
Rewards," from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
LinkedIn
|
No
|
LNKD
|
$92.43
|
$75.61
|
$122.70
$45.00
|
|
|
Read
my article, "Should
You Link In?" from the June 1, 2011 ezine,
Vol. 8, issue. 6.
|
|
Oracle
|
No
|
ORCL
|
$33.47
|
$27.85
|
$36.50
$21.24
|
|
|
Read
"Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google" from the February
1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2.
|
|
Orocobre
|
No
|
OROCF
|
$2.35
|
$0.97
|
$4.03
$0.97
|
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol.
7, issue 2. This is an Australian lithium company with a deal
with Toyota to supply lithium for lithium ion batteries. Began
trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) in June of 2010 and
trades on the Australian Stock Exchange as well.
Orocobre
issued almost 7 million new shares in the price range of $3.20
Canadian on Feb. 25, 2011 to fund ongoing design work, pilot
plan operation and other activities in relation to the construction
of the Salar de Olaroz.
Recent
trouble: On March 7, 2011, Orocobre announced that the Argentinian
government is slowing down the permit process for the proposed
lithium potash project in NW Argentina. On March 4, 2011,
the local government declared lithium to be a strategic mineral
resource and introduced a secondary approvals process. According
to the decree, additional approval will be required for both
the Olaroz lithium-potash project for which the Company has
already received approval of its development and production
EIS, and the Cauchari lithium-potash project, for which an
exploration EIS has been submitted. This new process does
not affect the Company's program at Salinas Grandes, which
is predominantly located in Salta Province.
The company
is based in Brisbane, Queensland, which had extensive flooding.
The company's projects are located in South America, so it's
possible that the floods won't impact this company severely.
Lithium production isn't projected to begin until 2012 and
with the new developments in Argentina, this could be further
delayed.
Orocobre
Limited is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and
Toronto Stock Exchange (ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) and is the leading
lithium-potash developer in the lithium and potassium rich
Puna region of Argentina. For further information, please
visit www.orocobre.com.
|
|
iShares
MSCI All Peru Index Fund
|
No
|
EPU
|
$40.73
|
$34.67
|
$51.35
$29.79
|
|
|
Read
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 8. Left-winger Ollanta Humala, a career military
man who has moderated his anti-capitalist views since narrowly
losing the 2006 election, won the Presidential election and
has become the President-Elect.
Humala
notes that Peru has had economic growth of 7-8% for 8 years.
He calls the Peruvian economy "solid." While Humala
promises that the poor will receive more of the country's
profits, he also says that his central bank will be run by
an independent and that he wants to work closely with the
United States. Check out this video interview with Humala
by Reuters.
|
|
Priceline
|
No
|
PCLN
|
$508.15
|
$445.75
|
$561.88
$220.00
|
|
|
Read
the article "The
Priceline Negotiator,"
from Vol. 7, issue 10. Great company. Don't want people buying
in high, hoping to sell higher. And if you made a healthy
gain, considering capturing profits.
2Q results
were announced on August 4, 2011. High P/E of 38.
|
|
Ross
Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$76.41
|
$83.11
$48.71
|
|
|
Read
"Discount
Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue
6. Sales have been growing steadily in this discount marketplace,
especially given the "jobless recovery." Profit
margins are slim, however, 7%.
|
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Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$51.19
|
$40.31
|
$66.70
$18.43
|
|
|
Read
"Diamonds
or Scrapbooking," from the November
1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11. PE is 80 - far too
high for our taste - especially for a company that posted
a loss in the most recent quarter.
2Q 2011
results on July 27, 2011. Net revenues increased 62% year-over-year
to $75.8 million (largely due to an acquisition). GAAP net
loss was ($3.6) million, compared to ($5.9) million in Q2
2010. At Juen 30, 2911, cash and cash equivalents totaled
$75.9 million, less than half of what the company had on March
31, 2011 - at $216.3 million.
|
|
Toyota
Motor Company
|
No
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TM
|
$71.84
|
$66.97
|
$93.74
$66.34
|
|
|
Read
"Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue
2 and "One
Very Hot IPO" from
Vol. 7, issue 9. 1Q results on August 2, 2011. Net revenues
were down 29.4% from the same quarter a year ago. Net income
fell off of a cliff - down -99.4%, to $1,160 million
yen from $190,466 million yen a year ago.
TMC Senior
Managing Officer Takahiko Ijichi said: "In Japan and
North America where the effects of the earthquake were particularly
serious, vehicle sales declined substantially. In the Asia
region, despite the impact of the earthquake, we were able
to maintain a similar level of vehicle sales as the previous
year in countries led by Indonesia."
FYI:
Honda results on 8.1.11 dropped off of a cliff, too and so
did the Honda share price (while Toyota share price stayed
relatively strong). Net income for Honda decreased 88%, down
to $394 million. Sales were down 27.4%, at $21.2 billion.
Toyota
and Tesla announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build
electric RAV4s beginning in 2012. The production line will
be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric powertrains will
be shipped by Tesla from California.
Toyota
continues to be the #1 automaker and a fave among greenies.
The industry is vulnerable, however, and investors should
be aware of the price and that 26 P/E is high for auto manufacturers,
though if Toyota does succeed in capturing the EV market,
the growth could be impressive.
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Wells
Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$32.25
|
$23.05
|
$34.25
$22.58
|
|
|
3.7 million
people are over 90 days late on their mortgage. Additionally,
WFC credit card holders report getting charged 29.9% interest
rates, while class action lawsuits against WFC continue to
mount. However, the Feds keep giving the banks money and allowing
banks to carry their losses off the books. Which means that
earnings reports are fairy tales.
See "Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4,
issue 12.
|
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Wynn
Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$147.98
|
$109.47
|
$172.58
$85.80
|
|
|
Check
out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in
Vol. 5, issue 10.
Wynn
is a great marketer and capital raiser. However, Vegas is
one of the worst places for real estate in the U.S. and the
city has taken a huge hit as a convention center as well.
Be very careful here. The Hangover sparked a Vegas renaissance
last year. The new Wynn pool scene is hot. Buying a vulnerable
company with a high price to earnings ratio is not.
Increased
cash flow has improved Wynn's debt rating. On July 8, 2011,
Fitch raised its rating on Wynn Resorts Ltd and subsidiaries,
including Wynn Las Vegas LLC and Wynn Resorts (Macau) SA to
"BB" from "BB-" and it gave a positive outlook for the ratings.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in
Share Price).
Note:
The companies listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling
off list and/or may be currently poised for a decline in value.
Investors who have them in their portfolio should read the recent
news and consider whether it is time to sell and take profits, dump
losses, short the position and/or simply weather the storms, while
keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate, always
consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments
to your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are
expected to go DOWN in price.)
ALERT: We
are in a pre-election year. The markets have been volatile and down-trending,
but oil prices have backed off and GDP growth is expected to pick
up in the coming quarters. So, even though consumer sentiment is
down, now may not be the best time to initiate a short position.
Some of the stocks on the list below are here simply to keep you
from buying them high.
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Rochester
Municipals Bond Fund (RMUNX)
PowerShares
Treasury Bill Index Fund (PLW)
DELETIONS:
LinkedIn
(LNKD) on 8.15.11
Netflix
(NFLX) on 8.15.11
Priceline (PCLN) on 8.15.11
Tesla (TSLA) on 8.15.11
Toyota Motors (TM) on 8.31.11
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) on 8.15.11
|
Company
|
NP
owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price
when added to Cooling Off List
|
Price
10.3.11
|
52-week
High
52-week
Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
News
Corp.
|
No
|
NWSA
|
$16.42
$17.27
|
$15.00
|
$18.35
$11.91
|
-8% &
-13%
|
|
Read
my article, "Murdoch's
Humble Pie," from the August 1, 2011
ezine, Vol. 8, issue. 8.
|
|
Rochester
Municipals Bond Fund
|
No
|
RMUNX
|
$14.86
|
$16.02
|
$16.91
$14.49
|
+7%
|
|
Read
"Bond
Beautification Project" from Vol. 7, issue 10
and "Bonds,
Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster," from
Vol. 7, issue 9.
|
|
Taubman
Centers
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$61.32
(7.15.11)
|
$48.27
|
$62.63
$21.85
|
+92%
&
-21%
|
|
Read
the article, "Global
Recession," from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June
2009. 2Q earnings on July 19, 2011:
As of
June 30, the loans on both The Pier Shops and Regency Square
are in default. The company is working with the respective
special servicers to transfer title of both properties as
soon as possible, however, the holding periods remain uncertain
and could be extended periods. The non-cash impact of owning
these centers (including anticipated default interest) is
expected to result in an incremental FFO charge of approximately
$(0.20) per diluted share for The Pier Shops and $(0.04) per
diluted share for Regency Square for the full year 2011.
CFO dumped
$240,000 in shares on 8.1.11.
Liabilities
exceed assets by about $500 million.
Over
the past six months, TCO has distributed "dividends in
excess of net income," amounting to almost $2 billion.
Net income in the 2Q was $20 million.
Paid
down debt with a new stock issuance.
Malls
are not doing well in general, with consumer spending off
in the U.S.. Taubman is doing some very creative accounting
and funding tricks and using some potentially misleading language
on their earning reports. Such as, "We've now experienced
an unprecedented six quarters of double digit sales increases,"
said Robert S. Taubman, chairman, president and chief executive
officer of Taubman Centers. "This is contributing to
a robust leasing environment in our centers... The fundamentals
of our business are extremely strong."
Taubman
Centers is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development,
leasing and management of regional and super regional shopping
centers. Taubman's 26 U.S. owned, leased and/or managed properties,
the most productive in the industry, serve major markets from
coast to coast. Taubman Centers is headquartered in Bloomfield
Hills, Michigan and its Taubman Asia subsidiary is headquartered
in Hong Kong.
Mall
owners are hit with the quadruple whammy of sluggish retail
sales, high turnover, lower occupancy and declining real estate
value.
|
|
Time
Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$28.95
|
$38.62
$27.62
|
+18%
|
|
Read
the article, "Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
|
|
PowerShares
Treasury Bill Index Fund
|
No
|
PLW
|
$30.02
|
$32.78
|
$30.02
$26.30
|
+9%
|
|
Read
"Don’t
Get Fooled Again," from Vol. 7, issue
8. When interest rates rise, bonds and bond funds fall in
value. Time to find another "safe" place for your
assets. Read "The
High Price of Questionable Credit" from the September
2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 9.
|
Deleted
in 2010-2011:
Deleted
AMAT on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be
double or more). 8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%),
MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT (-20%) - all for gains. Deleted
MGM 9.13.10 for 61% gains. Deleted Tesla on 1.14.11 with 20% &
24% gains. 3.1.11: Deleted Shutterfly with12% gain (cooling off
gain) and Sears with mixed results (up & down). 3.11.11: Deleted
PIMCO Muni Bond fund with flat performance. Deleted Amazon, American
Express, Capital One, Ford, Kulicke & Soffa, Netflix, Taubman,
VMWare with mixed results. Deleted Apple, Baidu, Berkshire Hathaway,
Intel, Transocean & Wells Fargo with losses. 4.28.11: ABAT with
51% gains. 6.13.11: LinkedIn was deleted with 25% gains, Orocobre
with 18% gains, Shutterfly with 20% gains, Priceline with mixed
performance and eBay was deleted with flat performance. 6.23.11:
Yahoo was deleted with 12% gains. 8.15.11: LinkedIn with 10-11%
gains, Netflix with -6-18% gains, Priceline with 6% gains, Tesla
with 7% gains. Wynn Resorts was deleted with mixed results. 8.31.11:
Toyota was deleted with gains of 14%.
Deleted
2008-2009:
19
gainers and no losers.
Recently
Deleted:
None
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER (PLEASE READ):
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We
report on financial news, and are one of the most trusted independently
owned and operated financial news corporations in the U.S. This
article is intended to educate and inform individual investors,
and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their personal
decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this
article are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS
do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial
professional before buying or selling any security, and consider
your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors
should NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling
Off list to trade their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should
reflect a long, safe strategy, which has been designed with the
assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your
goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment
strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies
should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge
and patience.
IMPORTANT
DISCLAIMER: Information has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness
or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of
this publication and are subject to change without notice. This
material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments
or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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|
NataliePace.com
Calendar:
October
is Green and Zen. Don't Miss the Greenbuild Conference in Toronto
and Mary J. Blige at the UrbanZen Concert Series Launch.
The NataliePace.com
Calendar section features conferences, teleconferences, retreats,
educational opportunities, cultural events, galas, market events
and online chats with executives and VIPs. Stay plugged in! We add
online chats, article updates, teleconferences, etc. as they are
booked, so be sure to visit the calendar section early and often.
Below is only a partial listing of what’s happening this month.
To access links
to the event website and registration, go to the Calendar
section at NataliePace.com.
Greenbuild
Conference. Toronto, Canada
Tuesday-Friday,
October 4-7, 2011
The
Green Conference. Learn about future plans and budding technologies:
From the newest LEED 2012 updates to the Green Building Information
Gateway (GBIG); from the path to greening our country’s schools
to LEED Automation.
Nominate
a Green Startup
Wednesday,
October 5th, 2011
Now through Oct. 5, 2011, you can nominate
your favorite Green Startup Company for the Opportunity Green Innovation
Award. Criteria include: efficiency, design and more.
Columbus
Day
Monday, October
10th, 2011
Mary
J. Blige Sings for UrbanZen, NYC
Wednesday, October
12th, 2011
7:00PM through 10:00PM
The launch of the Zen Rock Concert series
features 10-time Grammy award-winning performer Mary J. Blige in
an unforgettable evening supporting the Urban Zen Foundation and
its initiatives.
Female
Entrepreneurs: The Gender Advantage. Southern California
Wednesday,
October 19th, 2011
5:30PM through 9:30PM
There are gender differences in the early
formative stages of a startup business, and specific advantages
that women founders have over men. Come hear about those differences
and be encouraged by fellow female entrepreneurs! Natalie Pace is
the keynote speaker. Come join us!
Womensphere
Euro Summit. UK
Friday, October
21st, 2011
Join influential women leaders and emerging
leaders in business, finance, media, entrepreneurship, and technology,
throughout Europe and the world at the Saïd Business School,
University of Oxford.
3rd
Quarter GDP Growth Estimates (Advance)
Thursday,
October 27th, 2011
8:30
a.m. ET
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov)
releases the advance estimate for GDP growth in the 3rd
quarter.
FOMC
Meeting
November 1-2,
2011
The Federal Open Market Committee meets to
determine Federal Reserve policy in the U.S. Two-day meeting November
1-2, 2011.
Opportunity
Green Conference, LA, CA
Friday, November
11th, 2011
Opportunity Green 2009 is a 2-day event that
brings together the most innovative leaders in sustainability and
promotes disruptive change. Discussions. Workshops. Valuable insights.
A must-attend for any Greenie.
Investor
Edu Retreat, Santa Monica, CA
November 11-13,
2011
In 2007, the Dow was at 14,000; in 2000, NASDAQ
was at 5,000 (more than double what it is today). Buy and hold doesn't
work. Learn the strategies that the pros use. Natalie Pace makes
it easy as a pie chart in a 3-day boardroom retreat.
Thursday,
November 24th, 2011
(Thanksgiving)
|
VISION: To build
a global community of investors through a worldwide website, seminars,
radio, television and print partners.
GOAL: To provide high-quality, first-run, ethical financial news,
information and education, presented in an entertaining format,
across all media (television, radio, print and online).
MISSION: To provide the news, information and education investors
need to make better choices and to make investing as much fun
as shopping.
PHILOSOPHY: Member Mosaic. Piecing together a more complete picture
of the publicly traded company, one tile at a time, by valuing
firsthand consumer experience, conducting evaluations of the executive
team and lining up the numbers of the publicly-traded company
with its competitors in a Stock Report Card.
For more information on NataliePace.com contact us at
www.NataliePace.com,
P.O. Box 1350, Santa Monica, CA 90406-1350
or 1-866.476.7442
(toll-free telephone number).
NOTICE: NataliePace.com is NOT a stock brokerage service,
and does not operate or act as one.
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|
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