NataliePace.com Home Page Article
Spring
Rally 2012. Are You Still on the Sidelines or Capitalizing on the Recovery?
by
Natalie Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
February 29, 2012
General
Stock Market Performance
|
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Tuesday, 1.3.2012
|
Friday, 2.29.12
|
Gains 4-yr
& 3-yr & 2-months
|
|
Dow (DJIA)
|
13,044.12
|
9,034.69
|
12,397.38
|
12,994.30
|
Flat & +44%
& +5%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
2,609.63
|
1,632.21
|
2,648.72
|
2,976.74
|
+14% & +82%
& +12%
|
|
S&P500
|
1,447.16
|
931.80
|
1,277.06
|
1,370.00
|
-5%
& +47% & +7%
|
Wall
Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial
Average
|
6,547 (3.9.09)
|
14,164 (10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ Composite
Index
|
1,114 (10.9.02)
|
5,060.34 (3.10.00)
|
Hot News on Cool
Stocks Important Data
Up to 19X gains on U.S.
Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
NASDAQ Is Almost
Double the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains since 2009
Gold is down 10%,
off of the high of $1,895/ounce, set on 9.5.11
13 out of 14
Company of the Month features from 2010 posted gains.
Gold tops stocks,
real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years.

Compare those returns to
the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills and gold over the
last 30 years.

Market Update:
Spring Rally: Are
you still on the sidelines or are you capitalizing on the best two- month start
Wall Street has seen in 25 years?
According to Howard Silverblatt,
Senior Index Analyst, Standard & Poor's, "The S&P 500 index posted its
best two-month start since 1987 (8.59% YTD vs. 17.36% in 1987), with back-to-back
4%+ hits (4.36% in January and 4.06% in February)." A lot of the gains year
to date are Apple, which became a member of the $500 billion club on February
29, 2012. Apple is the 6th U.S. company to be worth half a trillion dollars.
(Read more about this in the "Apple
Joins the $500 Billion Club" article in this month's ezine.)
Mid-caps led the charge,
with 12.28% gains over the last two months, followed by almost 11% gains in
small caps. However, over the 12-month period, small caps were the place to
be.
|
Small Caps
|
Mid-Caps
|
S&P500 (large)
|
|
Feb. 2012
|
4.05%
|
5.33%
|
4.28%
|
|
Year To Date
|
10.90%
|
12.28%
|
8.96%
|
|
12 Months
|
7.13%
|
3.37%
|
5.08%
|
As for which industry you
wanted to be in -- all, except utilities and telecommunications, have been winners
in 2012. It's interesting that energy is one of the losers over the 12-month
period, however. Here is the industry scorecard.
|
Industry
|
YTD (through Feb.
29, 2012)
|
12 Months
|
|
Information Technology
|
15.34%
|
10.20%
|
|
Financials
|
13.19%
|
-12.54%
|
|
Consumer Discretionary
|
10.63%
|
9.99%
|
|
Materials
|
10.45%
|
-4.65%
|
|
Industrials
|
9.39%
|
-0.16%
|
|
S&P500
|
8.59%
|
2.90%
|
|
Energy
|
7.02%
|
-4.01%
|
|
Health Care
|
3.98%
|
10.98%
|
|
Consumer Staples
|
1.69%
|
11.72%
|
|
Telecommunications
|
-0.36%
|
2.11%
|
|
Utilities
|
-3.67%
|
8.64%
|
So, how long
will the rally continue? The Spring Rally has become more fun on Wall Street
than Christmas morning, with March and April as the strongest performers of
the year on average.
Monthly
Returns of the S&P500 (annualized)
1991 Through
2010
|
Month
|
20 years
|
10 years
|
5 years
|
|
January
|
0.09%
|
-1.61%
|
-2.89%
|
|
February
|
-0.56%
|
-2.37%
|
-2.75%
|
|
March
|
1.28%
|
1.05%
|
3.19%
|
|
April
|
2.01%
|
2.71%
|
4.23%
|
|
May
|
0.96%
|
0.66%
|
-0.46%
|
|
June
|
-0.66%
|
-2.26%
|
-3.15%
|
|
July
|
0.605%
|
0.062%
|
2.12%
|
|
August
|
-0.40%
|
-0.18%
|
0.65%
|
|
September
|
-0.07%
|
-0.94%
|
1.86%
|
|
October
|
1.61%
|
1.44%
|
-0.23%
|
|
November
|
0.54%
|
1.66%
|
-0.95%
|
|
December
|
2.00%
|
1.25%
|
1.9%
|
Source: Standard and
Poor’s data, Natalie Pace data crunch © 2011
So, if you're still on
the sidelines, you are missing the strongest performing asset of the last few
years. NASDAQ is up 82% since 2009 and 12% in the last two months. (Imagine
how much more your net worth would be with those gains!)
If you're afraid of being
burned, and let's face it, who wouldn't be if you lost money during the Great
Recession, it's because your nest egg strategy was cracked to begin with. You
need to employ Modern Portfolio Theory and annual rebalancing. Buy and Hold
hasn't worked for the last decade and won't work until we are in a much stronger
growth cycle. Investing in today's world may seem difficult, but, using my easy
as a pie chart strategies, you always keep enough safe, while having a reasonable
amount in the hottest industries. This strategy has worked wonderfully through
bull and bear markets because during recessions, your safe side earns the gains.
You can learn more about
Modern Portfolio Theory, annual rebalancing, avoiding the bailouts, adding in
hot industries and how to analyze the fiscal health of your investments in my
book, You
Vs. Wall Street. Therein I outline in detail the easy-to-understand
and implement strategies that earned me a reputation as a #1 stock picker.
Of course, the easiest
way to learn is not to read, but to do. So, if you are committed to making 2012
your year for money while you sleep, fiscal fitness and a beautiful bottom line,
register now to attend my 3-day Investor
Educational Retreat. You will bring in all of your investments,
redesign them using the most effective strategies on the planet and walk out
with a plan that can be implemented immediately, and will work for the rest
of your life. So call 310-430-2397 now to get smart, get safe and start earning
gains again.
Investor Edu Retreat:
Margaret posted
49% gains in three months. Randall earned back the price of his retreat in just
a few weeks. Bill and Nilo earned 40% gains between Nov. 2011 and January 15,
2012. Melanee achieved her goal of "hanging out with billionaires." (Check out
her picture with Bill Gates on the Love
& Money Retreat flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com.)
Call 310-430-2397 NOW to learn how you can attend a boardroom
retreat with just 12 others, learning these strategies hands-on
from me.
Investor Alerts:
1. OPEC: The trade
imbalance with OPEC
is currently $9.1 billion per month, which is one of the top assassins of GDP
growth. Be sure to read my article, "Oil
is Killing U.S. Growth," from the November 2011 ezine, volume 8,
issue 11.
2. Debt:
Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ on
August 5, 2011. The Budget Plan of August 2, 2011 fell short by almost $2 trillion.
A lowered debt rating means we will pay more interest (eventually) -- a lot
more -- which makes it even more difficult to balance the budget and spark GDP
growth.
3. Real Estate: Almost
10 million properties were repossessed between 2008 and 2012 (9,896,211).
RealtyTrac
is predicting that foreclosure activity will be higher in 2012 than 2011 (in
other words, over two million), but lower than 2010 (so, less than three). This
means that there will no upside in real estate prices (except in certain
cities) until 2013. However, it could be a good time to buy, while interest
rates are low. If you are underwater on your mortgage or delinquent on your
payments and are considering the "unthinkable," email Heather
at NataliePace.com to get the links to some very important articles. You
must cover your own assets first -- before you burn through everything trying
to save a sinking ship.
4. 911 Investor Alert:
Bonds and Treasury Bills. Read
up on how to understand the risk in bonds and select high quality safe areas
for your money in featured bond articles from the May
2011 ezine (volume 8, issue 5) and the December
2011 ezine (volume 8, issue 12). In the meantime, low-risk, cash-positive
hard assets are King (and no, I'm not suggesting to go all in on gold, see below).
Bonds and bond funds are vulnerable to loss of principal value now. Interest
rates will rise (eventually) if the U.S. debt problem is not fixed. It might
take a few months or even a few years, but without reform, credit risk will
increase, driving up interest rates.
5. Gold: If you
purchased gold at $850/ounce in 1980, you had to wait 26 years for the value
to return. Most of the time, gold seesawed between $250-$350 an ounce over that
period. Now, with prices near $1800/ounce, large holders of gold, including
the United States, Brazil and more, could be tempted to sell high. For a brief
history of gold and information on which countries are the biggest holders of
gold, read, "The
Gold Crash of 1980," from the September 2010 ezine, volume 7, issue
9. Gold continues to be a hot industry, but you do not want to be all in and
be careful about buying high.
So is There Anything
Good Out There?
Yes, believe
it or not, there are some excellent areas in the economy. My 2009 Company of
the Year, U.S. Gold, posted up to 19X gains. Applied Materials, the 2010 Company
of the Year, posted 25% gains within a few months of being named. 13 out of
14 Companies featured in my Company of the Month articles in 2010 were winners.
Your nest egg has almost fully recovered from the Great Recession. If you have
a great credit rating and can get a loan, there are areas of the country where
you can buy cash positive, low risk income property. And even if you're in trouble,
in doubt, losing a home or declaring bankruptcy, there are some very important
things to do to squirrel away as many assets as possible. The best way to learn
about these things is to read this ezine top to bottom, read You
Vs. Wall Street and register to attend the next Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat. Once you have the wisdom and education
that you should have received in high school, all of this will be easy and can
be set up on auto-pilot. Until then, you are vulnerable to more boom/bust markets.
Regional Banks Failed
en Masse 2008-2011
There were 92
bank failures in 2011, 157 in 2010, 140 in 2009 and 25 in 2008. (Only 9 banks
have failed so far in 2012, as of Valentine's Day.) Don't be seduced by the
banks reporting record earnings! Most of them are fairy tales. (Nonproducing
loans are carried off the books; TARP and other Federal Reserve swaps are about
as easy to figure out as the origin of the life.) Almost 13 million homes will
be lost between 2007 and 2012 and not all of them hitting the financial statements
with as much force as they should...
Track Record of our
Reporting
While the markets
are still down significantly since their high in October of 2007, the Hot News
and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record before, during and after
the Great Recession -- in bear and bull market years. 131 positions listed
over the last four years -- 86% -- have delivered impressive gains, even while
the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than it was in 2007
(when it cracked through 14,000)! Only twenty-two of our listings went
in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given
the market gyrations of more than 7000 point swings since 2008.
Remember that the trading
portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your
nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.)
If you're new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg,
to learn on. Take your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing
years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice a year, not
trying to market time.)
Almost Half of My
Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My 2003, 2004,
2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to
690% gains (Opsware), up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 19X
ROI for U.S. Gold (now McEwen Mining), respectively. Applied Materials, 2010
Company of the Year, and MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, were both super
performers within a few short months of their listings. So six out of
nine Company of the Year selections were the best Wall Street has to offer.
That's the kind of record that made me a #1 stock picker. (I launched
my first publication on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year,
Taser International, on 1.1.03.)
13 out of 14 companies
featured in the Company of the Month articles in 2010 earned gains -- 93%! Some
other big hits were Google at the IPO (over 7X gains), Rio Tinto (tripled in
value) and shorts like Fannie Mae (in 2003), real estate (2005), General Motors
(2005) and Las Vegas (2008).
The NataliePace.com ezine
was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- Muni bond and bond funds
911
Investor Alert in Sept. 2010.
- 2008
Recession
(Get Safe)
- Trim back on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Get out of Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Google
at the IPO! (May 2004)
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
Market Movers:
The Federal Open
Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds
rate continues to be "0 to 1/4 percent." The next FOMC meeting takes
place on March 13, 2012.
GDP Growth Rates:
The 2nd estimates of 4th quarter GDP growth are 3.0%. The new FOMC projections
for 2012 GDP growth are 2.1-3.0%. Could be a good year in the markets. Should
continue to be volatile, however, with the political warzone going on in Washington
and the bond crisis in Europe.
4th quarter 2011 (third
estimates) will be released on March 29, 2012 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
GDP Growth
in the U.S.
|
Year
|
GDP Growth
|
|
2012
|
2.1-3.0% (projected)
|
|
2011
|
1.6%
|
|
2010
|
3.1%
|
|
2009
|
-0.5%
|
|
2008
|
-3.3%
|
|
2007
|
2.2%
|
Source:
Federal Reserve, 1.25.12
These release days tend
to be very active on Wall Street. For more information on GDP growth and
other important economic statistics, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar
section often.
EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES
AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the January 24-25, 2012 FOMC meeting for yourself? The official Federal
Reserve document is available online. Go to FederalReserve.gov
to read! According to the Committee's Beige Book, released on January 11, 2012,
"Consumer spending picked up in most Districts, reflecting significant
gains in holiday retail sales compared with last year's season, and activity
in the travel and tourism sector expanded in most areas."
The tentative FOMC meeting
schedule for the 2012 calendar is March 13, 2012 (Tuesday), April 24-25 (Tuesday-Wednesday),
June 19-20 (Tuesday-Wednesday), July 31 (Tuesday), September 12 (Wednesday),
October 23-24 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday), January 29-30, 2013
(Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar
section of NataliePace.com regularly. You will find great opportunities to attend
the most exclusive business and Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and
radio shows and other educational opportunities -- many are FREE! Get more information
on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
Don't miss the Pace
and Prosperity Show with Natalie Pace on BlogTalkRadio.com. Check BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace
for upcoming shows and call-in and log-on instructions and to listen back to
any shows that you might have missed. These shows are pod casts and are FREE!
BlogTalkRadio offers a
Q&A format, where you can call in with your most pressing questions. Be
sure to keep a list of your questions as they come up, and join our ongoing
dialog on peace and prosperity, getting rich and enriching, green investing,
the Thrive Budget and more on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/NWPace.
3.
Survey
Results:
Each month we have three new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your
needs and desires. Cast your vote on our survey page.
4. Euro interest
rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit
facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement are scheduled for
March 8, 2012 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (March 22, 2012 & April 4, 2012 after that.)
(FYI: Credit Risk in Europe is fueling the riots and market volatility, not
Central Bank policy.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors who
"never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article.
This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted,
then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained
in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted
may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial
planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember
that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your
nest egg strategy at all -- not even for "pros." If you've never traded
individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don't have mastery
over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
MEMC
Electronics (WFR)
Satcon (SATC)
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
FMC (FMC) on 1.15.12
Hoku
(HOKU) 1.3.12
LDK Solar (LDK) 1.3.12
Microsoft (MSFT) on 1.15.12
Netflix (NFLX) on 2.1.12
HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS
LIST
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to Hot News List
|
Price
2.29.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
S&P Emerging
Middle East and Africa Fund
|
No
|
GAF
|
$60.06
|
$71.99
|
$79.97
$57.00
|
+20%
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions
|
No
|
MDRX
|
$18.01
$15.27 (8.15.11)
|
$19.32
|
$23.13
$14.30
|
+7% &
+26%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.
4Q & FY 2011
earnings on 2.16.12: Bookings of $327.4 million in the 4Q, a 26 percent
year-over-year increase. Bookings of $1.051 billion for the year, a 17
percent year-over-year increase. GAAP revenue of $388.2 million; non-GAAP
revenue of $389.2 million, a 15 percent year-over-year increase, in the
4th Q. GAAP annual revenue of $1.449 billion, a 13 percent year-over-year
increase. GAAP annual net income of $75.5 million and diluted earnings
per share(2) of $0.40.
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions, Inc., formerly Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions, Inc.
(Allscripts), is a provider of clinical software, services, information
and connectivity solutions that are used by physicians and other healthcare
providers to improve the quality of healthcare.
Added four strong
executives to the team in July 2011. Cliff Meltzer, a veteran development
leader for Apple, Cisco, IBM and most recently CA Technologies, joined
Allscripts as Executive Vice President, Solutions Development, with responsibility
for product development company-wide. Steve Shute, a veteran sales leader,
will be joining Allscripts as Executive Vice President, Sales. Mr.
Shute has held numerous executive leadership positions at the IBM Corporation.
Jackie Studer joined Allscripts as Senior Vice President and General Counsel;
she comes from GE. John Guevara, a seasoned leader with extensive success
leading mission-critical operations for Microsoft and other top technology
companies, joined Allscripts as Chief Information Officer.
|
|
American Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$27.77
$3.42
(10.1.11)
|
$4.48
|
$38.88
$3.21
|
-84% &
+34%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.
9.23.11: American
Superconductor Corporation AMSC,
a global power technologies company, today announced its recent successes
in the wind power and power grid markets, including nearly $100 million
in new contracts since the start of the company's fiscal year on April
1, 2011. AMSC signed contracts with wind turbine manufacturers in China,
India and Korea.
The Switch acquisition
was cancelled on 10.31.11. It will cost AMSC $20 million to terminate
the deal.
3Q 2011 results on
2.9.12: Revenues = $18.1 million. Net loss = $26.3 million. This figure
includes approximately $6.5 million in expenses with regard to AMSC's
litigation with SInovel Wind Group and the restructuring that occurred
when Sinovel stopped paying for AMSC's products.
The company's total
backlog as of December 31, 2011, excluding contracts related to Sinovel,
increased to $300 million from $298 million as of September 30, 2011.
"I am pleased to
report that AMSC exceeded each of its financial targets for the third
fiscal quarter," said AMSC President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel
P. McGahn. "We again generated a diversified revenue stream, with solid
contributions from both our Wind and Grid segments and with Australia,
India, Korea and the United States each contributing more than 10 percent
of our total quarterly revenues. We further streamlined our cost structure
in the third fiscal quarter, allowing us to reduce our cash usage and
better position AMSC for sustainable profitability. In addition, on the
orders front, we continued building our order book for fiscal 2012, which
begins on April 1, 2012."
For the quarter ending
March 31, 2012, AMSC expects that its revenues will exceed $27 million.
AMSC expects that its net loss for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 will
be less than $24 million, or $0.47 per share.
|
|
AOL
|
Yes
|
AOL
|
$21.22
$11.53
(10.1.11)
|
$17.96
|
$29.45
$10.06
|
-15% &
+56%
|
|
Read "AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12 and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?" from Vol. 8,
issue 7.
4Q2011 earnings on
February 1, 2012: revenue was $576.8 million, down 3% from a year ago.
Net income was $22.8 million, versus income of $66.2 million a year ago..
AOL purchased Huffington
Post for $315 million in Feb. 2011. AOL owns Moviefone, Mapquest, among
other popular destinations. Launched Editions on Aug. 2 for iPad -- the
magazine that customizes reading experiences for each user.
Per ComScore Net
Ratings (10.11 data), AOL is the 5th most trafficked "web
parent companies" in the United States, right behind Facebook, Microsoft,
Yahoo and Google. Sales for AOL is $2.30 billion annually, but there is
plenty of room for this company to come closer to Yahoo's $6 billion in
annual revenue and take a bite out of Google's $31 billion.
"AOL took a
large step forward in Q4 and I am very pleased with the way we ended the
year," said Tim Armstrong, Chairman and CEO. "Our Q4 results highlight
AOL’s ability to methodically improve our consumer offering and financial
performance. We continue to invest in AOL and will continue to improve
our operations during 2012."
|
|
Applied Materials
2010 Company of the
Year
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$13.10
$9.78
(10.1.11)
|
$12.25
|
$16.94
$9.70
|
-6% &
+25%
|
|
Read "Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010
ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the Year!
1Q earnings announced
on Feb. 16, 2012. Applied generated orders of $2.01 billion and net
sales of $2.19 billion. GAAP net income was $117 million or 9 cents per
share.
"Global demand for
mobile devices is driving a third consecutive year of strong capital
investment by semiconductor customers," said Mike Splinter, chairman
and chief executive officer. "As a result, we see solid order momentum and
an improved outlook overall for our second quarter."
"Applied delivered
net sales and earnings above the high end of our expectations," said George
Davis, chief financial officer. "In a quarter in which we closed the Varian
acquisition, we also returned substantial capital to our stockholders,
paying $104 million in cash dividends and using $200 million to repurchase
over 18 million shares of our common stock."
|
|
iShares Australia
Index
|
No
|
EWA
|
$22.84
$19.36
(10.1.11)
|
$23.75
|
$28.36
$19.36
|
+4% &
+22%
|
|
Read "Are
Commodity-Rich Countries Worth a Look?" from Vol. 8, issue
6 and "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7. This fund was a rock star
on Wall Street in 2009-2010. Australia benefits from having lower debt
and a closer proximity to China than the U.S. Also, is rich in natural
resources (needed by China), lower in unemployment (at 5.1%) and avoided
the bank bailouts that sank the U.S. and U.K. Queensland rains and flooding
in 2010 and 2011 impacted GDP growth in the most recent quarter (negative
GDP growth), however, GDP growth has been stronger than the U.S. and Western
Europe.
|
|
Pimco Australia Bond
Index
|
No
|
AUD
|
$98.90
|
$102.50
|
$102.48
$94.80
|
+4%
|
|
Read "The
Sexiest (& Safest) Investment in the World," "Are
Commodity-Rich Countries Worth a Look?" and "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 8, issue 12, Vol. 8, issue 6 and Vol.
7, issue 7. Pimco is a premiere bond fund corporation, headed up by the
legendary Bill Gross. Australia is one of the best investments in the
world right now.
|
|
Bank of Montreal
|
No
|
BMO
|
$54.08
|
$58.61
|
$66.64
$53.36
|
+9%
|
|
Refer to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details. Canada's
banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009;
Australia was #2. Canada has a higher debt to GDP ratio than the U.S.,
however, so don't dive in without testing the water first. Check out the
article.
|
|
Canadian Imperial
Bank
RISK: Low
|
No
|
CM
|
$67.64
|
$77.55
|
$88.76
$67.05
|
+15%
|
|
Refer to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details. Canada's
banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009;
Australia was #2. Canada has a higher debt to GDP ratio than the U.S.,
however, so don't dive in without testing the water first. Check out the
article
|
|
iShares Chile Fund
|
No
|
ECH
|
$65.05
$51.16
(10.1.11)
|
$67.90
|
$80.38
$51.16
|
+4% &
+33%
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7,
issue 8.
|
|
iShares MSCI China
Small Cap Index Fund
|
No
|
ECNS
|
$48.38
$31.04
(10.1.11)
|
$40.15
|
$58.80
$31.04
|
-13% &
+30%
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Cree
|
Yes
|
CREE
|
$52.10
$22.00
(1.1.12)
|
$30.29
|
$83.38
$20.25
|
-42% &
+38%
|
|
Read "Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, and August 1,
2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company. Revenue growth is solid.
Sales to Asia are strong. Future likes bright! And the price is finally
right. 2Q earnings announcement on January 17, 2012 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
2Q earnings on January
17, 2012. 2Q revenue was $304.1 million, up 18% year over year. Net income
was $12.1 million, down from $49.8 million a year ago.
President Obama visited
CREE on June 15, 2011 to discuss policies to spur economic growth. In
his remarks, President Obama stated, "So today the small business that
a group of N.C. State engineering students founded almost 25 years ago
is a global company. Next month, your new production line will begin running
24/7. So you're helping to lead a clean energy revolution. You're helping
lead the comeback of American manufacturing. This is a company where the
future will be won."
"While the business
environment remains challenging, our results demonstrate that our strategy
is working. Our future business outlook remains very optimistic based
on our belief that innovation drives payback, payback drives LED lighting
adoption and adoption expands the market for both Cree and our customers,"
Chuck Swoboda, Cree chairman and CEO said, in the earnings press release.
|
|
iShares Emerging
Markets Index
|
No
|
EEM
|
$41.27
$34.29
(10.1.11)
|
$44.33
|
$50.30
$34.29
|
+7% &
+29%
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Eldorado Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$14.00
$13.16
(2.15.12)
|
$15.31
|
$22.12
$13.93
|
+9% &
+16%
|
|
Read "Investing
in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9. A Canadian-based, global
gold mining company.
2.7.12: Institutional
Shareholder Services ("ISS") and Glass Lewis & Co., LLC ("GL") have
recommended that shareholders vote FOR the merger of Eldorado Gold Corporation
and European Goldfields Limited to be considered at their respective special
meetings on February 21, 2012.
FY earnings on Feb.
24, 2012. Gold revenues increased 33% ($1,042.1 million - 2011; $782.8
million - 2010). Basic earnings per share increased 41% ($0.58 per share
- 2011; $0.41 per share - 2010). Profit = $318.7 million, compared to
$221 million a year ago.
"During 2011, the
Company achieved record earnings from its gold mining operations on sales
of 658,919 ounces of gold at an average realized gold price of $1,581
per ounce and average cash operating costs of $405 per ounce. As a result
of this strong performance, the Company generated $502.1 million in cash
during the year from operating activities, paid Cdn$0.11 per share in
dividends to Company shareholders and paid $92.4 million in debt, net
of additional borrowings. During the year we also commenced the start-up
of Efemcukuru in Turkey, received a key permit in Turkey to expand Kisladag,
and announced our plan to acquire European Goldfields Limited. The completion
of the transaction will significantly increase the Company's gold reserves,"
said Paul Wright, President and CEO of Eldorado Gold.
Eldorado is a gold
producing, exploration and development company actively growing businesses
in Brazil China, Greece, and Turkey and surrounding regions. They are
one of the lowest cost pure gold producers.
Produced 162,429
ounces of gold at an average cash operating cost of $397 per ounce (total
cash cost $477 per ounce). Sold 162,164 ounces of gold at an average realized
price of $1,510 per ounce.
Net income was $74.9
million, compared to $55.7 million a year ago. 3Q revenue is up 72%, to
$326 million, from $190 million a year ago.
|
|
Galaxy Resources
RISK: HIGH
(off the boards,
thinly traded)
|
No
|
GALXF
|
$1.18
$0.58
(10.1.11)
|
$0.90
|
$1.80
$0.55
|
-24% &
+55%
|
|
Read "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2. Lithium
exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and China. Traded off the boards
in the US, but is listed on the Australia Stock Exchange.
January 13, 2012:
Quarterly Report will be released.
Galaxy has two strong
aspects -- Australia-based company in an emerging market -- lithium. Galaxy
Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) is an international S&P/ASX 300 Index
Company which is soon to become one of the world's leading producers of
lithium - the essential component for powering the world's fast expanding
fleet of hybrid and electric cars. By 2012, Galaxy's Mt Cattlin
mine will be the world's second largest hard rock producer of lithium
and through the development of its value adding lithium carbonate plant
(17,000tpa), the Company will be the largest and lowest cost lithium producer
in China.
Galaxy wholly-owns
and operates the Mt. Cattlin mine, which is currently producing spodumene
concentrate. Galaxy's Jiangsu lithium carbonate plant, once completed,
will have a design capacity of 17,000 tpa of lithium carbonate, which
Galaxy expects would make it one of the largest plants in China converting
hard rock lithium mineral concentrates into lithium compounds and chemicals.
Lithium compounds
such as lithium carbonate are forecast to be in high future demand due
to advances in long life batteries and sophisticated electronics including
mobile phones and computers.
Galaxy
Resources
has positioned itself to meet this lithium future by not only mining the
lithium, but also by downstream processing to supply lithium carbonate
to the expanding Asian market.
During the quarter,
Galaxy continued discussions with major Chinese banks regarding funding
of the Company's proposed Battery Project in China's Jiangsu Province.
Galaxy's finance department received promissory notes from 3 banks in
China to extend finance of up to US$120 million. No investment decision
has yet been made on the proposed Battery Project.
|
|
Goldman Sachs
|
No
|
GS
|
$108.34
$90.08
(10.1.11)
|
$115.14
|
$175.34
$84.27
|
+6% &
+30%
|
|
Annual & 4Q earnings
were announced on 1.18.12. 2011 revenues were $28.81 billion with a net
income of $4.4 billion for the year.
This past year was
dominated by global macro-economic concerns which significantly affected
our clients’ risk tolerance and willingness to transact," said Lloyd
C. Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "While our results
declined as a consequence, I am pleased that the firm retained its industry-leading
positions across our global client franchise while prudently managing
risk, capital and expenses. As economies and markets improve – and we
see encouraging signs of this – Goldman Sachs is very well positioned
to perform for our clients and our shareholders."
|
|
Green Dot
|
Yes
|
GDOT
|
$41.25
$28.50
(2.1.11)
|
$31.93
|
$65.10
$24.94
|
-23% &
+12%
|
|
Read "IPO
of the Year"
from Vol. 7, issue 3.
Big announcement
on 1.26.12: Green Dot Corporation GDOT,
a provider of widely distributed, low-cost banking and payment solutions
to a broad base of U.S. consumers, is working with AARP Foundation and
MasterCard to launch the first prepaid card tailored to older Americans.
The AARP Foundation Prepaid MasterCard from Green Dot (the "Card")
is ideal for direct deposit of paychecks and federal benefit payments,
especially given new Federal requirements that all Social Security recipients
obtain payments electronically as of March 1, 2013.
4Q and annual results
on January 26, 2012: 4Q total operating revenues increased 30% from a
year ago, to $119.7 million. Net income was $14 million for the 4th quarter
of 2011. Gross dollar volume was at $3.8 billion.
"2011 was our
first full year as a public company and it was a year that furthered our
leadership position in our industry. It was a year where we became a bank
holding company and closed on the purchase of what is now called Green
Dot Bank. It was a year where we saw our cash and investment securities
increase by another $97 million, thus enabling us to continue to invest
in strategic M&A, technology infrastructure, regulatory compliance
and consumer facing product and marketing initiatives in 2012 and beyond.
It was a year that saw Green Dot grow new card activations by 27% over
2010, on top of an already large and industry leading sales base. And
it was a year in which we once again delivered robust year over year revenue
and earnings growth for our investors," said Steve Streit, Green
Dot's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Cool progress and
steady, though not stellar growth, in a space that is bound to see a lot
more competition (from MasterCard and Visa to name two). WalMart is a
partner and investor.
|
|
Jiayuan
|
No
|
DATE
|
$12.70
$5.97 (1.1.12)
|
$6.95
|
$16.12
$5.50
|
-45% &
+16%
|
|
Read "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3 & "The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Jiayuan
is the Chinese Match.com. Jiayuan announces 4Q and FY earnings on March
5, 2012.
The board approved
a US$10 million share repurchase program on Dec. 22, 2011. 3Q results
were on Nov. 17, 2011. Net revenues for the third quarter of 2011
were RMB90.9 million (US$14.3 million), a
year-over-year increase
of 84.5%. Net income was $3.9 million, an increase of 242.6% year over
year.
|
|
iShares S&P Latin
America 40 Index
|
No
|
ILF
|
$43.92
$37.84
(10.1.11)
|
$48.62
|
$55.38
$37.84
|
+11% &
+28%
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7,
issue 8.
|
|
McEwen Mining
(formerly U.S. Gold)
2009 Company of the Year
|
Yes
|
MUX
|
$5.57
$3.69
(12.15.11)
|
$5.23
|
$9.87
$0.50
|
-6% &
+42%
|
|
U.S. Gold just
changed its name to McEwen Mining. So, substitute the name below. I'll
switch over completely in a few months, once I'm assured that you've taken
note!!
Note: U.S. Gold
is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration company,
based in Nevada and Mexico which has begun the process of filing for production
permits, with a goal of producing gold by 2014.
Added back to the
Hot List on June 8, 2011 (in a special Subscriber Only Alert). On June
14, 2011 the Company announced that Mr. McEwen proposed to combine the
Company with Minera Andes to create a high growth, low-cost, mid-tier
silver producer focused on the Americas.
U.S. Gold began trading
on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 2, 2010, and has a goal of qualifying
for the S&P 500 by 2015. US Gold explores for gold and silver in the
Americas and is advancing its El Gallo Project in Mexico and its Gold
Bar Project in Nevada towards production. US Gold's shares are listed
on the NYSE and the TSX under the symbol UXG, trading 1.9 million shares
daily during the past twelve months. Added to the S&P/TSX Global Gold
Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the Chicago
Board of Options Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the AMEX
stock exchange on 12.11.06. (Also trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange.)
U.S. Gold was the
2009
Company of the Year. The article was featured in the October
2009 ezine, Vol. 6, issue 10.
|
|
MEMC
Electronics
|
Yes
|
WFR
|
$11.99
$4.09
(1.1.12)
|
$3.93
|
$13.80
$3.65
|
-66%
&
-4%
|
|
Read
"One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue 5 and
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. Investor call on 2.15.12 at
5:30 ET.
On
Dec. 8, 2011, MEMC announced major restructuring, layoffs, cost savings
and impairment changes. Should position the company to be leaner and meaner
at the end of 2012, but the financials in the interim could look ugly.
4Q
(preliminary) earnings results were released on Jan. 18, 2012. GAAP revenue
of $698-733 million. The company anticipates GAAP EPS for the period will
be in the range of ($6.50) to ($5.78), slightly lower than the previously
announced range of ($6.38) to ($5.20). GAAP EPS includes all charges
associated with previously announced restructuring and related charges.
MEMC
ended the quarter with approximately $586 million of unrestricted cash
and total liquidity in excess of $800 million.
"We
responded to the continuing cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry
and the severe market disruption in the solar market by taking decisive
action through a significant restructuring that we believe will strengthen
our business going forward," said Ahmad Chatila, MEMC's Chief Executive
Officer. "Although our solar business achieved record growth in
2011, interconnections, which exceeded 100 MW in the fourth quarter, fell
short of our expectations. As we begin 2012, our focus is on operational
excellence in completing our restructuring plan and profitably growing
our solar and semiconductor businesses."
The
Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis interrupted operations
at MEMC Electronics Utsunomiya facility between March 11, 2011 and early
April 2011.
|
|
Oracle
|
No
|
ORCL
|
$25.87
|
$29.26
|
$36.50
$21.24
|
+13%
|
|
Read "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google" from the February 1, 2011
ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2. 2Q earnings were announced on 12.2.11. Total revenues
were up 2% to $8.8 billion. GAAP net income was up 17% to $2.2 billion.
|
|
PowerShares Lux Nanotech
|
No
|
PXN
|
$8.87
$5.54 (10.1.11)
|
$6.50
|
$10.85
$5.54
|
-26% &
+19%
|
|
Potential hot industry
for your pie chart. Read the 2011
Company of the Year article from December 2010 ezine, Vol.
7, issue 12. Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.91
$5.02
(10.1.11)
|
$5.76
|
$11.42
$4.80
|
-42% &
+15%
|
|
Read "$100/Barrel
Oil"
from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RIO
|
$59.86
$42.87
(10.1.11)
|
$56.93
|
$76.67
$42.87
|
-5% &
+33%
|
|
Gold, copper and
other commodities mining. Based out of Australia. Mines worldwide, but
great way to capitalize on Australia's robust economy.
Annual 2011 results
were released on February 9, 2012. Record underlying earnings of $15.5
billion, 11 per cent above 2010's results. Net earnings $5.8 billion,
59% lower than 2010.
$7 billion share
buy-back programme on track for completion by end of the first quarter.
To date $6.2 billion has been completed, representing 103 million Rio
Tinto plc shares equivalent to five per cent of the Group’s issued share
capital.
Chairman Jan du Plessis
said, "Whilst we have today reported excellent underlying earnings
numbers, we also have to recognise that we have taken a significant impairment
charge in relation to our aluminium business. As this charge largely relates
to the acquisition of Alcan, Tom Albanese and Guy
Elliott have notified
the Remuneration Committee that they did not wish to be considered for
an annual bonus and
I think that is absolutely right.
"We anticipate
that uncertainty in the financial markets, particularly around the euro,
together with elevated price volatility will continue into 2012. This
leads us to remain cautious about near term prospects. However, the medium
to long term picture remains very positive for metals and minerals as
strong demand growth from emerging markets continues.
|
|
Satcon
2011
Company of the Year
|
Yes
|
SATC
|
$3.77
$0.52
(2.1.12)
|
$0.50
|
$5.51
$0.48
|
-87%
&
-4%
|
|
Read
"2011
Company of the Year,"
from Vol. 8, issue 4 and "$100/Barrel
Oil" from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3. Full-year
results will be announced on March 1, 2012.
Satcon's
share price is too low. The company has been advised by NASDAQ to get
it above $1.00 per share for 10 consecutive trading days by June 18, 2012.
If they do, all is well. If they don't, but everything else is in order,
Satcon may receive another 180 days grace period. If the share price is
still out of compliance by June 18, 2012 and there are other listing issues,
then NASDAQ could notify Satcon that the company is subject to delisting.
2.7.12:
Satcon announced a partnership with Great Wall Computer Company Limited
(GWPC
0.00%, news),
a majority-owned subsidiary of China Electronics Corporation (CEC
-0.62%, news).
The partnership will position Satcon to capitalize on the estimated 14GW
of utility scale projects under development, fueled by the country’s Feed-In
Tariff program. Of the 14GW of identified non-residential solar projects
in development in China today, the majority are expected to be developed
by China State Owned Entities.
Satcon
announced major restructuring on 1.4.12 (right at press time). As part
of the organizational restructuring, the company will reduce its workforce
by 140 employees worldwide, or approximately 35%. This reduction, combined
with the closure of the Canadian facility, will result in charges of approximately
$2.8 million to $3.0 million. The majority of the charges are expected
to occur in the fourth quarter of 2011, with the remainder taking place
in the first quarter of 2012. The company expects ongoing savings of approximately
$15 million to $17 million annually once all actions are implemented by
the second quarter of 2012. An additional charge of $20-$26 million is
expected for inventory overstocking issues.
"The
worldwide solar market conditions in 2011 demonstrated the dynamic nature
of this maturing industry," said Steve Rhoades, President and Chief
Executive Officer of Satcon. "The compounding effects of reduced
panel costs and market demand shifts toward North America and Asia have
forced the entire industry to adjust as we enter the next phase of development.
Decreasing prices, however, present significant opportunity for Satcon,
where the demand for our large-scale inverter solutions nearly doubled
in North America and Asia year-over-year. The measures we have announced
today will help to ensure that Satcon achieves the financial strength
required to profitably maintain our leadership position as the standard
for large scale inverter systems as solar power generation becomes a more
affordable and stronger investment worldwide."
Sad
to say that the global recession and eurozone crisis has hit solar industry
like a sledge hammer. Satcon is adjusting as fast as they can, but the
company has only $18 million cash on hand, far too much inventory and
is still losing money each quarter. So, Asia region may save the day in
2012, but there will be a tough 6-12 months to go through before that
occurs.
8.11.11:
Satcon announced that 10 of their 1 MW Prism Platform™ Solutions
will be used in the New Jersey Oak Solar PV Power Plant in Fairfield Township,
Cumberland County, New Jersey.
3Q
2011 earnings on Nov. 8, 2011: revenue was $45 million, net loss was $1,037,993.
"As
we look to the remainder of 2011, we expect fourth-quarter revenue to
be in the range of $37 million to $42 million," continued Rhoades.
"While the slowdown in the worldwide demand for solar has caused
2011 to perform below expectations, we remain optimistic about the future
and continue to expect the long term growth of our business to come from
North America, with increasing opportunity coming from Asia. We have identified
the necessary measures that will enable the company to continue to compete
successfully in these regions, and believe we are now on a path to sustainable
growth and margin expansion."
At
September 30, 2011, the company's backlog, which consists of purchase
orders from its customers, was $43.1 million. Backlog from North America
represented 75% of orders to be delivered. Asia contributed 17%, while
Europe contributed 8%.
|
|
Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$27.56
$22.70
(1.15.12)
|
$27.36
|
$66.70
$21.34
|
Flat &
+19%
|
|
Read "Diamonds
or Scrapbooking,"
from the November 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11.
Announced results
on 2.1.12. Net revenues for the year totaled $473.3 million, a 54% year-over-year
increase. GAAP net income was $14.0 million, compared to $17.1 million
in 2010.
P/E is higher than
we like, but Shutterfly is an acquisition play, and thus could still add
a little more color to your stock sheet.
|
|
Sociedad Minera y
Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$46.39
|
$59.18
|
$67.75
$46.00
|
+28%
|
|
This is a great company
that manufactures lithium for the electric car & IT industry and potash
for agriculture. Businesses include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine
and Lithium. Looking for a better buy-in.
Read the article,
"Treasure
Hunting," in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium),"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
SQM began paying
a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592 per share, with
US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11, 2011.
|
|
Sohu
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$81.67
$47.42
(10.1.11)
|
$49.34
|
$109.37
$46.99
|
-40% &
+4%
|
|
Read "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3 and "The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Sohu
is a Chinese mega portal, with gaming, news, search and TV.
1Q results should
be announced around April 25 2012.
|
|
iShares S&P North
American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
SOXX
|
$44.22
|
$57.68
|
$64.19
$44.17
|
+30%
|
|
Read "LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2011
Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch my 2.3.11
report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWRA
|
$24.83
$7.14
(10.1.10)
|
$7.53
|
$23.36
$4.94
|
-70% &
+5%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3.
Announced 4Q and
FY results on 2.16.12. Q4 2011 GAAP Revenue of $563 million, FY revenue
of $2.31 billion. Net loss for the year was $604 million.
"We exited 2011
with more than $683 million in available cash and liquidity, and continued
to improve our working capital metrics in the fourth quarter," said
Dennis Arriola, SunPower CFO. "In 2012, our new reporting format
will reflect our restructuring into a regional organization which will
help reduce our operating expenses year over year. Looking forward,
we have sufficient resources and liquidity to grow production, increase
market share and implement our manufacturing step reduction roadmap, while
meeting our 2012 financial plan."
SunPower Corp. SPWR
today announced on 1.18.12 that the company has broken ground on a 13.78-megawatt
(DC) solar photovoltaic (PV) power system at Naval Air Weapons Station
China Lake (NAWS China Lake) in California. The plant is expected to create
140 jobs during construction, and generate the equivalent of more than
30 percent of NAWS China Lake's annual energy load, helping to reduce
costs by an estimated $13 million over the next 20 years.
Sunpower panels are
the most efficient in the world and have powered Solar Decathlon winning
teams. Maryland, the 2011 Solar Decathlon winner, used Sanyo solar panels,
but needed six more panels to compete in the energy contests with #2 ranked
Purdue (which used Sunpower).
Ford and Sunpower
inked a deal on Aug. 10, 2011 to offer rooftop solar panels to Ford Focus
owners, offering them to "Drive Green for Life." The Android app, available
beginning Dec. 19, 2011, allows homeowners to monitor energy usage anytime/anywhere
and to share! Nissan and Orchard Supply Hardware were added to the company’s
residential Alliance program in 2012.
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
(solar)
|
No
|
STP
|
$14.26
$1.77
(10.1.11)
|
$3.10
|
$15.55
$1.77
|
-78% &
+72%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline silicon photovoltaic
(PV) module manufacturer. 4Q and FY results will be announced on March
8, 2012.
Preliminary results
announced on 2.17.12: Revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011 are expected
to be in the range of $610 million to $630 million.
Suntech began manufacturing
in the US on Oct. 8, 2010, at its Goodyear, AZ HQ. Dept. of Energy Secretary
Steven
Chu visited Suntech and reported on it to The National
Press.
12.7.11: Suntech
Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP), the world's largest producer of
solar panels, received the 2011 Gigaton Prize for its pioneering role
in reducing carbon emissions around the world, and leading efforts in
the fight against climate change.
The Gigaton Prize
is awarded annually to a company that has demonstrably reduced emissions
by the largest absolute amount on an annual basis. This year, the Gigaton
Prize was awarded at a ceremony in Durban, South Africa, as world leaders,
policy makers, celebrities and Fortune 500 executives convene for the
17th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change.
|
|
Trina Solar LTD.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$27.92
$5.58
(10.1.11)
|
$7.70
|
$31.89
$5.58
|
-57% &
+38%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side"
Vol. 6, issue 3.
FY earnings were
announced on February 26, 2012. 4Q Net revenues were $435.7 million, a
decrease of 9.6% sequentially. Net loss was $65.8 million, compared to
a net loss of $31.5 million in the third quarter of 2011. Full Year results:
Total net revenues were $2.05 billion, an increase of 10.2% from 2010.
Net loss for the full year was $37.8 million, a decrease of 112.1% from
2010
TSL lost a board
director to the government (a good sign). On Jan. 9, 2012 the company
announced "Mr. Junfeng Li, who was appointed an independent director in
November 2007, will focus on his recent appointment by the National Development
and Reform Commission as Director of the National Research Center for
Climate Strategies."
|
|
Veeco
|
Yes
|
VECO
|
$42.74
$21.46
(10.1.11)
|
$27.04
|
$56.05
$20.35
|
-37% &
+26%
|
|
Read "LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2011
Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12. VECO was added
on 7.6.11, with a special alert sent to subscribers at that time.
4Q results announced
on Feb. 6, 2012. $191.77 million in revenue, down from $299.8 million
a year ago. Net income was $23.6 million, compared to $103.4 million a
year ago.
Watch my 2.3.11 report
on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
John R. Peeler, Veeco’s
Chief Executive Officer, commented, "Veeco’s fourth quarter performance
was within our guidance range with revenue of $192 million and non-GAAP
earnings per share of $0.72. Business conditions in LED remained weak,
as expected, with some customer-driven rescheduling of tool shipments.
Fourth quarter LED & Solar revenues were $160 million, including $150
million in MOCVD. Data Storage revenues were $32 million."
"We are proud
of our 2011 performance as we continued to execute in a challenging overall
business environment, achieving a record $979 million in revenue, 48%
gross margin and non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.01," continued
Mr. Peeler.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$92.34
|
$111.49
|
$138.58
$92.34
|
+21%
|
|
Issued it's annual
results on November 15, 2011. Go to Westpac.com.au to access. Australian
banks fared far better than the rest of the world banks. So did Canadian
banks. P/E is good, but the debt is quite high, at 4.34 X equity (on 5.15.11).
Net profit of $6.9
billion, up 7% year over year
Westpac's Chief Executive
Officer, Gail Kelly, said: "Today, Westpac is one of the world's leading
banks on almost any measure. We have emerged very safely from the last
four years of economic uncertainty with a set of capabilities that distinguish
us from our peers and as a much stronger company for the longer term."
|
|
Youku
|
Yes
|
YOKU
|
$25.06
$15.88
|
$25.14
|
$69.95
$15.88
|
Flat &
+58%
|
|
Read "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3 and "The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Youku
is the Chinese Hulu and YouTube. Internet and mobile TV is more popular
than old school television in China. 4Q and FY earnings will be released
on March 14, 2012.
|
Deleted Companies
2010-2011:
Deleted
1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10: Galaxy Resources
with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21% gains. Deleted 9.13.10:
American Superconductor (flat) & AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster
busted out in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10:
ENER1 was deleted with flat performance. 11.11.10: ENER1 was deleted with 37%
gains. VECO was deleted with 2% & 41% gains. 12.1.10: KLIC was deleted with
12% gains. 1.14.11: Advanced Materials was deleted with 30% gains. 2.2.11: BEARX
with losses of 14%. 2.14.11: U.S. Gold with 14.5X gains. 6.13.11: EPU with flat
performance. 9.7.11: Deleted Eldorado Gold with 38% & 52% gains. 11.14.11:
HEV with heavy losses, VMW and KLAC for gains of 32-33% & Tesla for 40%
gains. 12.12.11: Google with 16-27% gains. 1.3.12: Hoku with losses of 70-95%,
LDK Solar with mixed results. 1.15.12: FMC with gains of 36% and MSFT with 15-19%
gains. 2.1.12: Netflix with up to 84% gains.
Deleted Companies
2008-2009:
60 winners and 9 losers.
Recently Deleted
from the Hot News list:
FMC (FMC) on 1.16.12
Hoku (HOKU)
on 1.3.12
LDK Solar
(LDK) on 1.3.12
Microsoft
(MSFT) on 1.15.12
Netflix (NFLX)
on 2.1.12
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to Hot News List
|
Price
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$65.83
|
$90.13
|
$93.00
$63.81
|
+36%
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)"
from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?," from Vol. 7, issue 2.
|
|
Hoku Corporation
RISK: HIGH
|
No
|
HOKU
|
$8.03
$1.75
(3.15.11)
|
$0.55
|
$3.24
$0.50
|
Yuckkk....
-95% &
-69%
|
|
Read "One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue 5, "The
Sunny Side," Vol. 6, issue 3 and "Solar
Giants Tap a Small Hawaiian Company For Silicon," in the
Oct. 2007 ezine, Vol. 4, issue 10.
In short, this company
has been a disaster since they decided to build their polysilicon plant
four years ago. The share value continues to deteriorate and the current
climate and language don't give me any confidence that this company has
what it takes to shine.
CFO resigned on Dec.
15, 2011. Big red flag... Especially since they are having an internal
audit and may have to restate earnings... See below for additional info...Solar
is under heavy attack right now. Europe was one of the biggest customers
and the Eurozone problems have thrown clean energy into a muck.
2Q: Nov. 10, 2011.
Rev. $1.9 million, up from $1.2 million last year. Net loss was $7.9 million,
compared to a net loss of $2 million last year.
Presently, the Company
is finalizing its analysis to determine whether the recent decline in
the market price for polysilicon has impacted the carrying value of its
polysilicon plant and whether the carrying value is fairly stated in accordance
with GAAP. Accordingly, the results herein are preliminary estimates which
do not reflect any impairment of long-lived assets which might occur as
a result of its on-going analysis of the carrying value of the Company's
polysilicon plant and are subject to change if the Company determines
that an impairment charge is necessary, which could significantly impact
our financial results.
Scott Paul, Chief
Executive Officer of Hoku Corporation, said, "During the last quarter
we have continued our construction and commissioning activities at Hoku
Materials, maintained our focus on delivering investment-grade solar arrays
at Hoku Solar, and expanded our business by taking primary responsibility
for the sales and marketing of Tianwei's PV modules in the U.S."
|
|
LDK SOLAR
|
No
|
LDK
|
$30.02
$2.70
(10.1.11)
|
$4.38
|
$15.10
$2.70
|
-85% &
+62%
|
|
Read the articles,
"One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand," Vol. 8, issue 5, "Green"
in Vol. 6, issue 2 and "Solar
Springs Up Again," in Vol. 5,
issue 4.
3Q 2011 earnings
were announced on November 22, 2011. Net sales of $471.9 million , compared
to $499.4 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2011, and $675.6 million
for the third quarter of fiscal 2010. Net loss was $114
million. LDK
Solar ended the third quarter of fiscal 2011 with $262.6 million in cash
and cash equivalents and $605.6 million in short-term pledged bank deposits.
"During the third
quarter, our business was impacted by the continued downturn in the solar
industry," stated Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar. "Weak
market demand and rapidly declining average selling prices throughout
the solar supply chain resulted in shipment volumes and revenues lower
than what we previously anticipated.
"While we continue
to believe that the significant opportunities to meet global energy needs
with solar power will drive long-term market growth, in the near-term
we expect challenging conditions in the solar industry to continue. As
such, we remain focused on strengthening our balance sheet, increasing
our operating efficiencies and improving our cost structure," concluded
Mr. Peng.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$24.88
$23.71
(6.15.11)
|
$28.25
|
$29.46
$22.73
|
+14% &
+19%
|
|
Watch my appearance
on CNBC,
outlining the reasons Skype is a very hot acquisition for Microsoft, and
read my article, "One
Very Hot IPO" from the September 1,
2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue. 9. Microsoft purchased Skype on May 10, 2011
for $8.5 billion in cash. I added Microsoft to the Hot News list on 5.15.11.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$113.25
$67.20 (12.1.11)
|
$122.97
|
$304.79
$62.37
|
+9% &
+84%
|
|
Read "Blockbuster’s
Second Coming" from Vol. 7, issue 5. Content continues
to lag behind the competition. Great, innovative company, with a lot of
competition. FY & 4Q results will be announced on Jan. 25, 2012 at
1:05 p.m. PT (after markets close). Q&A follows at 3:00 p.m. PT.
4Q and year-end results
on January 25, 2012. $3.2 billion in revenue for the year. Net income
was $231.6 million.
Raised $400 million
in common stock and convertible offerings to mutual funds and one private
equity investor on Nov. 21, 2011. Stock price was $70/share.
With more than 20
million streaming members in the United States, Canada and Latin America,
Netflix,
Inc. [Nasdaq: NFLX]
is the world's leading Internet subscription service for enjoying movies
and TV
Shows. NetFlix will
launch in the UK in 2012.
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we're thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are
stinkers we're thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List. Read carefully
to identify which is which! Note that right now most of our favorite companies
are on the Watch List. Getting the price right is as important as picking the
right company. Never pay retail!
Recent
Additions:
Baidu
(BIDU) on 3.1.12
Facebook (FB) on 2.1.12
FMC Corp. (FMC) on 1.15.12
General Electric (GE) on 3.1.12
Microsoft (MSFT) on 1.15.12
Netflix (NFLX) on 2.15.12
Tiffany's (TIF) on 2.1.12
Zynga (ZNGA) on 1.1.12
Recent
Deletions:
Eldorado Gold (EGO)
moved to Hot List on 1.15.12
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to List
|
Price
2.29.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Amazon
|
No
|
AMZN
|
$168.07
|
$179.69
|
$246.71
$160.59
|
|
|
Hot company. Buy
at a good price. P/E ratio is very high, at 131.16 on February 29, 2012.
|
|
Apple
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$351.99
|
$542.44
|
$542.44
$310.50
|
|
|
The largest company
in the world with a market cap of $506 billion, on Leap Year (2.29.12).
Buy at a good price. Bob Iger (chairman and CEO, Disney)has been named
to the Apple board and Arthur Levinson has taken over as the Chairman
of the Board.
How much of a threat
are the competing Smart Phones to the iPhone? Since iPhones and iPads
are primary drivers of revenue for Apple, it pays to compare... Also,
do you think that the Foxconn factory exposes are going to put the heat
on Apple to improve the working conditions in the factories?
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$124.96
|
$136.70
|
$165.96
$94.33
|
|
|
Read, "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3. Announced 4Q and
FY earnings on Feb. 16, 2012. 1Q earnings should be announced the last
week of April 2012.
Hot company. Buy
at a god price.
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.B
|
$85.30
|
$78.45
|
$87.65
$65.35
|
|
|
Warren Buffett's
company has more exposure to the bank bailouts (Wells Fargo and American
Express to name just two) than most investors realize. And, contrary to
what he used to say, the company engages in active trading and hedging.
Plus, he's 82 and doesn't have a clear, young successor in place. (Last
one, David Sokol, had to resign on March 30, 2011.)
|
|
iShares JP Morgan
Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EMB
|
$104.63
|
$113.30
|
$115.00
$103.57
|
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Facebook
|
No
|
FB
|
In
IPO
|
In
IPO
|
Not
trading yet
|
Not
trading yet
|
|
Read
"Facebook:
the Hottest IPO of 2012,"
from Vol. 9, issue 2. Facebook filed for its IPO, but shares are not yet
trading on the Big Boards. Contact your brokerage to see if you qualify
to participate in the IPO.
|
|
First Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$32.30
|
$175.45
$29.87
|
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again," article in Vol. 5, issue 4. CFO Jens Meyerhoff
left to "self-reflect" on his next steps. (red flag)
First Solar uses
cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable
energy. First Solar's sales are flat, whereas sales with the silicon-based
solar suppliers are up 80-100% year over year. The shift to silicon is
occurring for two reasons. Silicon manufacturing is heating up and costs
are lowering as a result, and cadmium telluride isn't as abundant or as
efficient a power source as silicon. Read the article for more details.
They still list CdTe as the semiconductor of choice on their website,
citing old data from 2004 that this is a good strategy. Be forewarned!
|
|
FMC Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$90.13
|
$98.97
|
$100.41
$63.81
|
|
|
Read "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)"
from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?," from Vol. 7, issue 2.
|
|
Ford Motor Co.
|
No
|
F
|
$14.55
|
$12.38
|
$18.97
$9.34
|
|
|
Read "How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford"
from Vol. 6, issue 4. Ford is making cars people want to drive, but it
owes over $100 billion dollars. Be careful with any investment here. The
same conditions that plagued Chrysler and GM are present here -- lots
of debt, pensions and Other Post Employment Benefit Obligations. Ford
built cars that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest).
And for that they get a big bravo.
Ford's total debt
is $99.5 billion and their credit rating is below investment grade, at
BB+ (as of 2.29.12, by S&P), with a Stable Outlook. If pensions and
other post employment benefits are considered, the debt and liabilities
load increases.
|
|
General
Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$19.05
|
$19.05
|
$21.17
$14.02
|
--
|
|
Read
"Apple
Joins $500 Billion Club," from the March 1, 2012 ezine, Vol.
9, issue 3. GE is carrying more than 3X debt to equity. The legacy problems
that dogged the airlines and auto manufacturers (and sent them into Chapter
11 restructuring) are present at GE, too.
|
|
General Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$33.11
|
$26.02
|
$33.75
$19.00
|
--
|
|
Read "One
Very Hot IPO," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue
9. Chevy Volt won Motor Trend's 2011 Car of the Year, but can GM
regain market share from worldwide market leader, Toyota? GM may have
shed a lot of debt in the bankruptcy filing, however, the company's profit
margins remain very slim at 4%.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$627.42
|
$618.25
|
$670.25
$473.02
|
-1%
|
|
See Vol. 8, issue
2 article, "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google," and Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes." Excellent company and great anchor
for your large caps in the nest egg. Just be sure to add at a reasonably
good price (not the 52-week high). 4Q and FY results will be announced
on January 19, 2012 at 1:30 p.m. ET (after the markets close).
Announced 3Q results
on Oct. 13, 2011. Google reported revenues of $9.72 billion for the quarter
ended June 30, 2011, an increase of 33% compared to the 3Q 2010. Net income
was $2.73 billion, compared to $2.17 billion a year ago.
Cash -- As of
June 30, 2011, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were
$42.6 billion. No debt.
Headcount -- On a
worldwide basis, Google employed 31,353 full-time employees as of June
30, 2011.
|
|
GroupOn
|
No
|
GRPN
|
$18.95
|
$19.72
|
$31.14
$14.85
|
+4%
|
|
Read "Is
GroupOn a Deal?" and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?," from the Dec.
1, 2011 and July 1, 2011 ezines, Vol. 8, issue 12 and 7. Questions about
management, governance, accounting and negative cash flow have us concerned
about the viability of GroupOn as an $11 billion company (value on 1.5.12).
|
|
KLA Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$49.00
|
$48.39
|
$51.83
$26.69
|
Flat
|
|
Read "LED
Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol.
7, issue 8.
1Q on Oct. 28, 2011:
$892 million revenue in 4Q, up from $559 million in 2010. Net income was
$192 million, from $113 million last year. Revenues were $796 million.
Has over $2 billion
in cash. Inventory is $640 million.
"KLA-Tencor's market
leadership and strong business model enabled us to deliver solid financial
results in the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, despite a challenging
global economic and industry environment," commented Rick Wallace, president
and chief executive officer of KLA-Tencor. "Though some of our customers
are delaying capacity expansion plans today as they assess current macroeconomic
and industry conditions, we are well-positioned to benefit from the investments
that our customers are continuing to make in driving their advanced technology
roadmaps."
Watch my 2.3.11 report
on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
Check out this Fox
Biz interview with CEO of KLA on 9.27.11.
|
|
Kulicke & Soffa
|
No
|
KLIC
|
$8.71
|
$11.26
|
$12.72
$6.71
|
+29%
|
|
Read "Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August
1, 2010 ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8.
|
|
iShares MSCI Indonesia
Index
|
No
|
EIDO
|
$30.72
|
$29.87
|
$32.92
$22.80
|
flat
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
LinkedIn
|
No
|
LNKD
|
$92.43
|
$86.87
|
$122.70
$45.00
|
-6%
|
|
Read my article,
"Should
You Link In?" from the June 1, 2011 ezine, Vol.
8, issue. 6.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.25
|
$31.74
|
$30.80
$22.73
|
+12%
|
|
Watch my appearance
on CNBC,
outlining the reasons Skype is a very hot acquisition for Microsoft, and
read my article, "One
Very Hot IPO" from the September 1,
2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue. 9. Microsoft purchased Skype on May 10, 2011
for $8.5 billion in cash.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$124.00
|
$110.73
|
$304.79
$62.37
|
-11%
|
|
Read my article,
"Blockbuster’s
Second Coming" from the May 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue.
5.
|
|
Orocobre
|
No
|
OROCF
|
$2.35
|
$1.96
|
$4.03
$0.97
|
-17%
|
|
Read "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2. This
is an Australian lithium company with a deal with Toyota to supply lithium
for lithium ion batteries. Began trading on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)
in June of 2010 and trades on the Australian Stock Exchange as well.
Recent trouble: On
March 7, 2011, Orocobre announced that the Argentinian government is slowing
down the permit process for the proposed lithium potash project in NW
Argentina. On March 4, 2011, the local government declared lithium to
be a strategic mineral resource and introduced a secondary approvals process.
According to the decree, additional approval will be required for both
the Olaroz lithium-potash project for which the Company has already received
approval of its development and production EIS, and the Cauchari lithium-potash
project, for which an exploration EIS has been submitted. This new process
does not affect the Company's program at Salinas Grandes, which is predominantly
located in Salta Province. However, as of Oct. 31, 2011, Orocobre is still
"actively engaged" in the secondary approvals, without measurable progress.
The company is based
in Brisbane, Queensland, which had extensive flooding last year. Lithium
production isn't projected to begin until 2012 and with the new developments
in Argentina, this could be further delayed.
Orocobre Limited
is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange
(ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) and is the leading lithium-potash developer in the
lithium and potassium rich Puna region of Argentina. For further information,
please visit www.orocobre.com.
|
|
iShares MSCI All
Peru Index Fund
|
No
|
EPU
|
$40.73
|
$43.85
|
$51.35
$29.79
|
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7,
issue 8. Left-winger Ollanta Humala, a career military man who has moderated
his anti-capitalist views since narrowly losing the 2006 election, won
the Presidential election and has become the President-Elect.
Humala notes that
Peru has had economic growth of 7-8% for 8 years. He calls the Peruvian
economy "solid." While Humala promises that the poor will receive
more of the country's profits, he also says that his central bank will
be run by an independent and that he wants to work closely with the United
States. Check out this video interview with Humala
by Reuters.
|
|
Priceline
|
No
|
PCLN
|
$508.15
|
$627.02
|
$627.02
$411.26
|
|
|
Read the article
"The
Priceline Negotiator,"
from Vol. 7, issue 10. Great company. Don't want people buying in high,
hoping to sell higher. And if you made a healthy gain, considering capturing
profits.
4Q & FY results
were announced on February 27, 2012. For full-year 2011, the Group had
revenues of $4.36 billion, a 41.2% increase over 2010. The Group had GAAP
net income applicable to common shareholders for full-year 2011 of $1.06
billion, or $20.63 per diluted share, which compares to $527.5 million
or $10.35 per diluted share in 2010.
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$53.33
|
$53.71
$30.08
|
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have
been growing steadily in this discount marketplace, especially given the
"jobless recovery." Profit margins are slim, however, 7%.
|
|
Tesla
|
No
|
TSLA
|
$32.60
|
$33.41
|
$36.42
$14.98
|
|
|
Read "Tesla.
The Best Car on the Road," "Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car (Again)?" and "Tesla
Trades on NASDAQ" from Vol. 8, issue 11, Vol. 8,
issue 10 and Vol. 7, issue 7.
Jan. 17, 2012: Tesla
lost two key executives just a few months before the Model S debt. Peter
Rawlinson, Tesla's vice president and chief engineer, and Nick Sampson,
director of vehicle and chassis engineering, departed the automaker. In
an e-mail to Automotive News, Tesla spokesperson Ricardo Reyes
wrote that Rawlinson completed conceptual and design engineering work
on the Model S and "decided to step away to tend to personal matters in
the United Kingdom." He also wrote: "Nick Sampson is no longer with Tesla.
He had fully transitioned from any Model S activities by the time of his
departure." This still has a bad smell to it...
Should you buy now?
Very volatile stock. Also, beta models of the new sedan are just rolling
out with delivery expected in the first half of 2012. Production is at
a former Toyota factory, which places a lot of ducks in a row, however,
ramping up for production is something that can be wrought with delays
and other unexpected kinks. Tesla has a very strong board and management
team and a great car in the Roadster. Advance reviews of the S sedan are
gushing.
4Q and FY results
were announced on Feb. 15, 2012. Revenues increased to $204 million for
the year, up from $117 million last year. Net loss was $254
million. Cash
= over $300 million. Long term debt: $268 million.
Toyota and Tesla
announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build electric RAV4s beginning
in 2012. The production line will be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric
powertrains will be shipped by Tesla from California.
Very exciting car
company. But very early stage, and may be in need of raising more and
more dough to stay on production track before the RAV4 and Model S hit
stores. (At the current cash burn rate, Tesla is out of money by February
2013.) Be careful.
|
|
Tiffany's
|
No
|
TIF
|
$63.94
|
$65.01
|
$84.49
$54.58
|
|
|
Read
"Are
Diamonds a Girl's Best Friend?" Vol. 9, issue 2.
|
|
Toyota Motor Company
|
No
|
TM
|
$71.84
|
$82.71
|
$93.74
$60.37
|
|
|
Read "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?" from Vol. 7, issue 2 and "One
Very Hot IPO" from Vol. 7, issue 9.
Toyota revised annual
earnings on 12.9.11. Car sales are expected to be down to 7.4 million.
And the net loss should be in the $80 billion yen range. There is much
speculation that Toyota will lose its title as #1 carmaker this year,
and may slip to #3, behind VW and GM, respectively. Toyota was hit very
hard by the Japanese Earthquake, floods in Thailand and other disasters.
Bear in mind that the official full-year report will not be issued until
May 11(ish) 2012, however, the sales data (and new rankings) should be
released in early January 2012.
Toyota and Tesla
announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build electric RAV4s beginning
in 2012. The production line will be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric
powertrains will be shipped by Tesla from California.
The auto industry
is vulnerable, and investors should be aware of the price and that 22
P/E is high for auto manufacturers.
Earnings are down
and profit margins are flat...
|
|
VMWare
|
No
|
VMW
|
$77.90
|
$98.89
|
$111.43
$71.04
|
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform"
Vol. 7, issue 4.
Announced 4Q and
FY results on Jan. 23, 2012: Annual Revenue Growth of 32% to $3.77 Billion
with Fourth Quarter Year-over-Year Growth of 27% to $1.06 Billion. Net
income for 2011 was $724 million, or $1.68 per diluted share, compared
to $357 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, for 2010. Cash, cash equivalents
and short-term investments were $4.51 billion and unearned revenue was
$2.71 billion as of December 31, 2011.
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$32.25
|
$31.29
|
$32.97
$22.58
|
|
|
RealtyTrac is predicting
that foreclosures in 2012 will exceed those in 2011. However, the Feds
keep giving the banks money and allowing banks to carry their losses off
the books. Which means that earnings reports are fairy tales. Don't believe
them. Banks are more troubled than you know. And, as we've already discovered,
they are too big to fail.
See "Wells
Fargo’s Incredible Exploding Earnings"
in Vol. 5, issue 9, and "Wells
Fargo’s Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12.
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$147.98
|
$118.54
|
$172.58
$85.80
|
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5,
issue 10.
Wynn is a great marketer
and capital raiser. However, Vegas is one of the worst places for real
estate in the U.S. and the city has taken a huge hit as a convention center
as well. Be very careful here. The Hangover sparked a Vegas renaissance
in 2010. The Wynn pool scene is hot. Buying a vulnerable company with
a high price to earnings ratio is not.
Increased cash flow
has improved Wynn's debt rating, but it is still below investment grade.
On July 8, 2011, Fitch raised its rating on Wynn Resorts Ltd and subsidiaries,
including Wynn Las Vegas LLC and Wynn Resorts (Macau) SA to "BB" from
"BB-" and it gave a positive outlook for the ratings.
|
|
Zynga
|
No
|
ZNGA
|
$9.45
|
$13.17
|
$14.55
$7.97
|
|
|
Read
"Zynga"
Vol. 9, issue 1.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies
listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may
be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their
portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell
and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the
storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate,
always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to
your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go
DOWN in price.)
ALERT: We are in an
election year. The markets have been volatile and up-trending, and GDP growth
is expected to pick up in the coming quarters. So not be the best time to initiate
a short position. Some of the stocks on the list below are here simply to keep
you from buying them high.
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
News
Corp. (NWSA)
Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD)
Zale Corp (ZLC)
DELETIONS:
None
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to Cooling Off List
|
Price
2.29.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
News
Corp.
|
No
|
NWSA
|
$16.42
$17.27
|
$19.87
|
$19.79
$11.91
|
+21%
+15%
|
|
Read
my article, "Murdoch's
Humble Pie ," from the August 1, 2011 ezine, Vol.
8, issue. 8. The News Corp. scandal in the UK is still far more active
than American investors realize. Check out the BBC UK's website for ongoing
updates.
|
|
Rochester Municipals
Bond Fund
|
No
|
RMUNX
|
$14.86
$16.02
(10.1.11)
|
$16.57
|
$16.91
$14.49
|
+10% &
+3%
|
|
Read "Bond
Beautification Project" from Vol. 7, issue 10
and "Bonds,
Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster," from Vol.
7, issue 9.
|
|
Sears
Holding Company
|
No
|
SHLD
|
$30.80
|
$69.66
|
$87.69
$28.89
|
+125%
|
|
Read
my article, "Discount
Stores," from the June 1, 2008 ezine, Vol. 5, issue. 6. Sears
is more of a hedge fund than a retail store.
|
|
Taubman Centers
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$61.32
(7.15.11)
|
$69.07
|
$70.00
$21.85
|
+176% &
+12%
|
|
Read the article,
"Global
Recession,"
from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.
Mall owners are hit
with the quadruple whammy of sluggish retail sales, high turnover, lower
occupancy and declining real estate value.
|
|
Time Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$37.21
|
$38.62
$27.62
|
+52%
|
|
Read the article,
"Hulu
Your Heroes,"
from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
|
|
PowerShares Treasury
Bill Index Fund
|
No
|
PLW
|
$30.02
$32.78
(10.1.11)
|
$31.97
|
$33.01
$27.09
|
+7% &
-2%
|
|
Read "Don’t
Get Fooled Again," from Vol. 7, issue 8. When interest
rates rise, bonds and bond funds fall in value. Time to find another "safe"
place for your assets. Read "The
High Price of Questionable Credit"
from the September 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 9.
|
|
Zale
Corp.
|
No
|
ZLC
|
$2.92
|
$3.21
|
$6.90
$2.06
|
flat
|
|
Read
"Are
Diamonds a Girl's Best Friend?" Vol. 9, issue 2.
|
Deleted in 2010-2011:
Deleted AMAT
on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be double or more).
8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%), MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT
(-20%) -- all for gains. Deleted MGM 9.13.10 for 61% gains. Deleted Tesla on
1.14.11 with 20% & 24% gains. 3.1.11: Deleted Shutterfly with12% gain (cooling
off gain) and Sears with mixed results (up & down). 3.11.11: Deleted PIMCO
Muni Bond fund with flat performance. Deleted Amazon, American Express, Capital
One, Ford, Kulicke & Soffa, Netflix, Taubman, VMWare with mixed results.
Deleted Apple, Baidu, Berkshire Hathaway, Intel, Transocean & Wells Fargo
with losses. 4.28.11: ABAT with 51% gains. 6.13.11: LinkedIn was deleted with
25% gains, Orocobre with 18% gains, Shutterfly with 20% gains, Priceline with
mixed performance and eBay was deleted with flat performance. 6.23.11: Yahoo
was deleted with 12% gains. 8.15.11: LinkedIn with 10-11% gains, Netflix with
6-18% gains, Priceline with 6% gains, Tesla with 7% gains. Wynn Resorts was
deleted with mixed results. 8.31.11: Toyota was deleted with gains of 14%.
Deleted 2008-2009:
19 gainers and no
losers.
Recently Deleted:
None
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
(PLEASE READ):
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial
news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial
news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform
individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their
personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article
are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research
and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors should
NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade
their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy,
which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who
is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be
greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment
as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or
sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies
mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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