NataliePace.com Home Page Article
Time
To Get Safe.
by Natalie Pace.
Includes
my Hot News on Cool Stocks List.
June 18, 2012
General
Stock Market Performance
| |
Monday, 1.2.2008
|
Monday, 1.2.2009
|
Tuesday, 1.3.2012
|
Tuesday, 6.15.12
|
Gains 4-yr & 3-yr & 4-months
|
|
Dow (DJIA)
|
13,044.12
|
9,034.69
|
12,397.38
|
12,767.17
|
-2%
& +41% & +3%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
2,609.63
|
1,632.21
|
2,648.72
|
2,872.80
|
+10% & +76% & +8%
|
|
S&P500
|
1,447.16
|
931.80
|
1,277.06
|
1,342.84
|
-7%
& +44% & +5%
|
Wall
Street Highs/Lows in the New Millennium:
|
Index
|
Low
|
High
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
6,547 (3.9.09)
|
14,164 (10.9.07)
|
|
NASDAQ Composite Index
|
1,114 (10.9.02)
|
5,060.34 (3.10.00)
|
Hot News on Cool Stocks
Important Data
NASDAQ Has Outperformed
the Dow Jones Industrial Average and gold this year
Gold is down 15%,
off of the high of $1,895/ounce, set on 9.5.11
13 out of 14
Company of the Month features from 2010 posted gains.
Up to 19X gains on
U.S. Gold, our 2009 Company of the Year!
Gold tops stocks,
real estate, bonds and T-Bills Over the Last 10 Years.

Compare those returns to
the returns of stocks, real estate, bonds, Treasury bills and gold over the
last 30 years.

Market Update:
Between January of 2008
(when I first warned to get safe from the Great Recession) and March of 2009,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than half of its value.
Performance
of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
January 1, 2008 through March 30, 2009

Source: Money.MSN.com.
For illustration purposes only.
Using one smart, easy trick,
investors like Bill
and Nilo Bolden saved their nest egg and earned gains, while those
around them lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. (Click on their names to
hear them talk about this in their own words.)
Performance
of the Powershares Laddered Treasury Bond Fund
October 1, 2007 through October 1, 2009

Source: Money.MSN.com.
For illustration purposes only.
Will this trick work again
in 2012? Unfortunately no.
In 2008, getting safe was
as easy as overweighting into bonds. However, since the Great Recession, we
have seen beaucoup bonds in crisis -- in Europe (PIIGS) and also in corporations
(AIG, Chrysler, General Motors, Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros.). Even Warren Buffet
warns investors, writing in his most recent annual report, "Bonds should come
with a warning label."
Time to Get Safe Now
Over the last
five years, stocks have lost money (on average) in June, August, September,
October and November. You can view a chart of the monthly performance of stocks
over the past 5, 10 and 20 years in the "Dow
Loses 2012 Gains" article from the June 2012 ezine, volume 9, issue
6. So, as we enter the seasonally weak season, it is more important now than
ever to make sure that you are safe.
I have already written
many articles offering great tips on how to get safe, and I encourage you to
browse the archived ezines and link to any articles listed in the Investor Alerts
and Educational Opportunities below to access and read them. I'm also going
to pen another one for the July ezine.
One important factor for
everyone to consider is that you cannot let the risk of short-term penalties
keep you frozen in your current investments. If your 401K choices are too limited
and you have hundreds of thousands (or more) vulnerable, check into every possibility
to roll the dough over into an IRA at a brokerage that offers the universe of
stocks and bonds on the marketplace (with literally thousands of options). If
hard assets are the right answer, then check with your tax advisor on the best
strategy to transform some of your liquid assets into income property. Don't
let the idea of "dividend yield" keep you in a bond or stock that is at risk
of loss of principal value. And absolutely adhere to the ARISA guideline of
not having more than 10% of your assets invested in the company you work for.
(Facebook employees really took this to heart when their shares became liquid
in May.)
This might all sound overwhelming
if you have never learned basic financial literacy, Modern Portfolio Theory,
or discovered how one click can link you to all you need to know about the amount
of debt a country or corporation is carrying. This is all taught in my 3-day
Investor
Educational Retreat. Many before you have feared that they couldn't
learn or understand this information and have walked out empowered with the
wisdom to transform their lives forever.
If your nest egg lost half
or more of its value in 2009 (when the Dow dropped to 6537) and you have not
made any changes, then you are still vulnerable. If you overweighted into bonds,
you are even more vulnerable. The 8th larged U.S. bankruptcy in history, MF
Global in 2011, resulted from bad investments in Euro bonds. And this group
was led by the former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, Jon
Corzine.
In related news, here is
the headline from June 8, 2012 (Friday), when Standard and Poor's released another
after hours press release on debt in the U.S. "We are affirming our unsolicited
'AA+/A-1+' sovereign credit ratings on the U.S. The negative outlook reflects
our opinion that U.S. sovereign credit risks, primarily political and fiscal,
could build to the point of leading us to lower our 'AA+' long-term rating by
2014."
Don't let this seemingly
distant deadline make you complacent about the U.S. debt being better off than
Europe's ills. The bond markets have been led by investors, not policymakers
and ratings agencies. If the U.S. bond investors (here and in China) consider
the risk to be too great, interest rates will rise immediately, and as that
starts to happen, a snowball of devastation starts rolling downhill. Higher
interest rates mean that it is more difficult to service debt which means that
the nation must declare austerity measures (increase taxes and slash spending).
This reality has already resulted in major riots throughout Europe. England's
value added tax is 20%. That is not something that will go over very well here
in the U.S., where the Occupy Movements have made it very clear that they are
angry, very well organized and are not going to take it anymore.
Consider this to be me
yelling from the rooftops. It is as important now as it is been throughout the
most challenging times in U.S. history to protect your money, to outwit financial
predators and to know the ABCs of Money and Investing. You cannot afford to
stick your head in the sand or have blind faith that someone else is going to
do a great job of investing your money. Is your "guru" still in business? How
well did your passive income strategies perform for you in 2008-2009? If you
stomach sinks at the thought, then you've got to get a new plan now.
The easiest way for you
to get safe now is to attend my July
6-8, 2012 Investor Educational Retreat. There you will afford yourself
the time and the learning environment to examine everything you own, learn the
ABCs of Investing in today's volatile world and design a money house that can
withstand the financial storms the world is embroiled in. As Benjamin Franklin
tells us, "An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest." Most people
are spending more on soda, coconut water or beer than the cost of one of my
retreats. So, make this your moment to drink in the wisdom that has led so many
others to Easy Street.
I have two seats remaining
available at my next Investor
Eduational Retreat. Call 310-430-2397 now to join us.
Retreat Attendee Results
& Testimonials
Bill and Nilo
earned 40% gains between Nov. 2011 and January 15, 2012, after attending their
first retreat. Melanee achieved her goal of "hanging out with billionaires."
Eva moved into her dream home. Brenden transformed his life so much that he
brought his daughter (twice). (Check out Melanee's picture with Bill Gates on
the Living
the Rich Life Retreat flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com.)
Call 310-430-2397 NOW to learn how you can attend a boardroom
retreat with just 12 others, learning these strategies hands-on
from me.
This investment in wisdom
will pay off in real estate, stocks, bonds, gold, hard assets, income and passive
income. You will also learn how to live a Rich Life on a Thrive Budget (instead
of a Struggling to Survive Life on a Buried Alive in Bills Budget).
Investor Alerts:
1. OPEC: The
trade imbalance with OPEC
is currently $11.5 billion per month, which is one of the top assassins of GDP
growth. Be sure to read my article, "Oil
is Killing U.S. Growth," from the November 2011 ezine, volume 8,
issue 11.
2. Debt:
Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+ on
August 5, 2011. The Budget Plan of August 2, 2011 fell short by almost $2 trillion.
A lowered debt rating means we will pay more interest (eventually) -- a lot
more -- which makes it even more difficult to balance the budget and spark GDP
growth.
3. Real Estate: Almost
10 million properties were repossessed between 2008 and 2012 (9,896,211).
RealtyTrac
is predicting that foreclosure activity will be higher in 2012 than 2011 (in
other words, over two million), but lower than 2010 (so, less than three). This
means that there will no upside in real estate prices (except in certain
cities) until 2013. However, it could be a good time to buy, while interest
rates are low. If you are underwater on your mortgage or delinquent on your
payments and are considering the "unthinkable," email Heather
at NataliePace.com to get the links to some very important articles. Do
not drain your nest egg to try and keep a home you cannot afford. That is sinking
your lifeboat.
4. 911 Investor Alert:
Bonds and Treasury Bills. Now
that even Warren Buffett has admitted bonds should come with a warning label,
you need to get smart on how to understand the risk in bonds and select high
quality safe areas for your money. Natalie first warned about bonds in September
2010 -- well before the Greek bond crisis and the S&P downgrade
of the U.S. credit. Get bond smart by reading these important bond articles
from the May
2011 ezine (volume 8, issue 5), the September
2011 ezine (volume 8, issue 9) and the December
2011 ezine (volume 8, issue 12). In the meantime, low-risk, cash-positive
hard assets are King (and no, I'm not suggesting to go all in on gold, see below).
Bonds and bond funds are vulnerable to loss of principal value now. Interest
rates will rise (eventually) if the U.S. debt problem is not fixed. It might
take a few months or even a few years, but without reform, credit risk will
increase, driving up interest rates, just as credit risk has done in PIIGS countries.
5. Gold: If you
purchased gold at $850/ounce in 1980, you had to wait 26 years for the value
to return. Most of the time, gold seesawed between $250-$350 an ounce over that
period. Now, with prices near $1700/ounce, large holders of gold, including
the United States, Brazil and more, could be tempted to sell high. For a brief
history of gold and information on which countries are the biggest holders of
gold, read, "Gold
Investors Beware" from the April 2012 NataliePace.com ezine, volume
9, issue 4, and "The
Gold Crash of 1980," from the September 2010 ezine, volume
7, issue 9.
So is There Anything
Good Out There?
Yes, believe
it or not, there are some excellent areas in the economy. My 2009 Company of
the Year, McEwen Mining, posted up to 19X gains. Applied Materials, the 2010
Company of the Year, posted 25% gains within a few months of being named. 13
out of 14 Companies featured in my Company of the Month articles in 2010 were
winners. Your nest egg has almost fully recovered from the Great Recession.
If you have a great credit rating and can get a loan, there are areas of the
country where you can buy cash positive, low risk income property. And even
if you're in trouble, in doubt, losing a home or declaring bankruptcy, there
are some very important things to do to squirrel away as many assets as possible.
The best way to learn about these things is to read this ezine top to bottom,
read You
Vs. Wall Street and register to attend the next Get
Rich and Enrich Retreat. Once you have the wisdom and education
that you should have received in high school, all of this will be easy and can
be set up on auto-pilot. Until then, you are vulnerable to more boom/bust markets.
Regional Banks Failed
en Masse 2008-2011
There were 414
bank failures between 2008 and 2011. (Most were community banks, which were
absorbed by other banks.) 24 banks have failed so far in 2012, as of June 7,
2012. Don't be seduced by the banks reporting record earnings! Most of them
are fairy tales. (Nonproducing loans are carried off the books; TARP and other
Federal Reserve swaps are about as easy to figure out as the origin of the life.)
Almost 13 million homes will be lost between 2007 and 2012 and not all of them
hitting the financial statements with as much force as they should...
Track Record of our
Reporting
While the markets
are still down significantly since their high in October of 2007, the Hot News
and Cooling Off lists below have a winning track record before, during and after
the Great Recession -- in bear and bull market years. 125 positions listed
over the last four years -- 79% -- have delivered impressive gains, even while
the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still trading lower than it was in 2007
(when it cracked through 14,000)! Only thirty-three of our listings
went in the opposite direction of the reporting, which is quite impressive given
the market gyrations of more than 7000 point swings since 2008.
Remember that the trading
portfolio should be equal to your experience, and should not be part of your
nest egg. (The nest egg is money you earn while you sleep, not while you day-trade.)
If you're new, you should be using education or fun money, not your nest egg,
to learn on. Take your trading profits early and often in these volatile, whip-sawing
years. (Your nest egg is better off just rebalancing once or twice a year, not
trying to market time.)
Almost Half of My
Company of the Year selections more than doubled. My 2003, 2004,
2007 and 2009 Companies of the Year posted up to 9000% gains (Taser), up to
690% gains (Opsware), up to 215% gains (Suntech Power Holdings), and up to 19X
ROI for McEwen (now McEwen Mining), respectively. Applied Materials, 2010 Company
of the Year, and MySpace, my 2006 Company of the Year, were both super performers
within a few short months of their listings. So six out of nine Company
of the Year selections were the best Wall Street has to offer. That's the kind
of record that made me a #1 stock picker. (I launched my first publication
on 11.15.02, and featured the first Company of the Year, Taser International,
on 1.1.03.)
13 out of 14 companies
featured in the Company of the Month articles in 2010 earned gains -- 93%! Some
other big hits were Google at the IPO (over 7X gains), Rio Tinto (tripled in
value) and shorts like Fannie Mae (in 2003), real estate (2005), General Motors
(2005) and Las Vegas (2008).
The NataliePace.com ezine
was the first to list the following 911 alerts:
- Muni bond and bond
funds 911
Investor Alert in Sept. 2010 (a full year before the downgrade
in August of 2011).
- 2008
Recession
(Get Safe)
- Trim back on Faded
Blue Chips in 2006
- Get out of Dodge (real
estate) in 2005
- Google
at the IPO! (May 2004)
- To get Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac out of your 401(k) in 2003
Market
Movers:
The Federal
Open Market Committee and Monetary Policy
The Fed funds rate continues to be "0 to 1/4 percent." The next
FOMC meeting takes place on June 19-20, 2012.
GDP Growth
Rates: 1st quarter 2012 GDP growth came in at 1.9%; the 4th quarter
2011 GDP growth was 3.0%. The FOMC projections for 2012 GDP growth are 2.2-2.7%.
Could be a good year in the markets. Should continue to be volatile, however,
with the political warzone going on in Washington and the bond crisis in Europe.
1st quarter 2012
(3rd estimates) will be released on June 28, 2012 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
GDP Growth
in the U.S.
|
Year
|
GDP Growth
|
|
2012
|
2.2-2.7% (projected)
|
|
2011
|
1.7%
|
|
2010
|
3.0%
|
|
2009
|
-0.5%
|
|
2008
|
-3.3%
|
|
2007
|
2.2%
|
Source:
Federal Reserve, revised 3.29.12
These release days tend
to be very active on Wall Street. For more information on GDP growth and
other important economic statistics, go to the BEA.gov
website and be sure to visit the NataliePace.com calendar
section often.
EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITES
AND INFORMATION:
1. FOMC
Information: Interested in reading the minutes
of the April 24-25, 2012 FOMC meeting for yourself? The official Federal Reserve
document is available online. Go to FederalReserve.gov
to read! According to the FOMC, "The economy has been expanding moderately.
Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate
has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment
have continued to advance."
The tentative FOMC meeting
schedule for the 2012 calendar is June 19-20 (Tuesday-Wednesday), July 31 (Tuesday),
September 12 (Wednesday), October 23-24 (Tuesday-Wednesday), December 11 (Tuesday),
January 29-30, 2013 (Tuesday-Wednesday).
2.
Calendar
section: Conferences, Online Chats and more: Check out the Calendar
section of NataliePace.com regularly. You will find great opportunities to attend
the most exclusive business and Green Conferences, learn about upcoming TV and
radio shows and other educational opportunities -- many are FREE! Get more information
on how to best use our articles in the FAQs
article, located under the Investor Edu link on the home page of NataliePace.com.
3.
Survey
Results: Each
month we have 2-3 new surveys so that we can stay in touch with your needs and
desires. Cast your vote on our survey page.
4. Follow Natalie Pace
on: Facebook.com/NWPace
, Twitter.com/NataliePace
5. Euro interest
rates: ECB
rates are at 1.00% (main refinancing), 1.75% (marginal lending) and 0.25% (deposit
facility). The next meeting and interest rate announcement are scheduled for
June 21, 2012 at 2:30 p.m. CET. (July 5, 2012 & July 19, 2012 after that.)
(FYI: Credit Risk in Europe is fueling the riots and market volatility, not
Central Bank policy.)
Hot
Stocks List
Investors who
"never pay retail," note that the BOLD highlighted stocks are trading
at their 52-week lows or near the price featured in NataliePace.com's article.
This may be a good buying opportunity. (If the stocks are not highlighted,
then in our estimation, this is not a good time to buy. Reasons are explained
in the news commentary.) The companies that are listed below which are not highlighted
may not be in a good buying range, but they appear to be poised to continue
performing well (if you have already purchased them). There are never any guarantees
in life, and all stocks are risk-based investments. Consult your certified financial
planner before making any changes to your investment strategy. And remember
that these "Stocks on Steroids" are not intended to be part of your
nest egg strategy at all -- not even for "pros." If you've never traded
individual stocks before, this is your "fun" or "education"
money. You should not stake your future on anything that you don't have mastery
over.
Hot
News List (highlighted). Be sure that you are buying low.
FMC
(FMC) on 6.6.12
Green Dot (GDOT) on 6.15.12
Jiayuan (DATE) on 6.15.12
McEwen Mining (MUX) on 6.15.12
DELETIONS
(Take your profits early and often):
AOL on 4.15.12
S&P
Emerging Middle East and Africa Fund (GAF) on 6.6.12
Oracle (ORCL) on 6.6.12
Shutterfly (SFLY) on 4.15.12
Sociedad Minera y Quimica de Chile (SQM) on 6.6.12
SOXX on 6.6.12
Westbak (WBK) on 6.6.12
HOT NEWS on COOL STOCKS
LIST
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to Hot News List
|
Price
6.15.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Accuray
|
No
|
ARAY
|
$7.20
|
$5.99
|
$9.37
$3.50
|
-17%
|
|
Read
"Robo
Doc" Vol.
9, issue 5.
|
|
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions
|
No
|
MDRX
|
$18.01
$15.27 (8.15.11)
|
$10.90
|
$23.13
$8.99
|
-39% &
-29%
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.
1Q 2012 earnings
on 4.26.12: Bookings of $194.6 million in the 1Q. Revenue of $364.7 million.
GAAP net income of $5.8 million.
These 1Q 2012 numbers
are way off, and the earnings guidance has been revised downward to $1.5
billion in revenue (no income ##s were offered). Additionally, there has
been a major shakeup in the executive suite. The CFO, chairman of the
board and four board directors are gone. These are all red flags, and
I'll keep digging for more information for the next update. It's important
to determine why the revenue is off and what forced such a split in the
executive suite and boardroom. (A competitor told me that an acquisition
turned out to be not very valuable.)
On June 1, 2012,
Allscripts advised that they are putting forth five names at the Annual
Meeting on June 15, 2012 to become new board directors. With these additions,
eight out of nine directors will be independent. Many have financial backgrounds,
which is good for oversight and capital raising, but not always so great
for product integrity and sales.
Allscripts Healthcare
Solutions, Inc., formerly Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions, Inc.
(Allscripts), is a provider of clinical software, services, information
and connectivity solutions that are used by physicians and other healthcare
providers to improve the quality of healthcare.
|
|
American Super-conductor
|
No
|
AMSC
|
$27.77
$3.42
(10.1.11)
|
$3.88
|
$38.88
$3.21
|
-86% &
+13%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3.
On 2.15.12 AMSC reported
that it is still pursuing a lawsuit against Sinovel in China. According
to AMSC, "AMSC is seeking to recover more than $1.2 billion for contracted
shipments and damages from Sinovel in these cases, which stem from Sinovel's
contractual breaches in March 2011 and AMSC's discovery of intellectual
property theft by Sinovel employees in June 2011." The case is not going
well. It has been dismissed by two courts in China so far. On April 10,
2012, AMSC appealed to China's Supreme People's Court.
4Q 2011 and FY results
on 6.6.12: Revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 were $28.6 million.
This compares with $59.8 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010
and $18.1 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2011. The year-over-year
decline is due primarily to a lack of revenue from AMSC's former customer,
Sinovel Wind Group Co., Ltd. (Sinovel), while the quarter-over-quarter
increase was driven by growth in the company's Wind and Grid reporting
segments. AMSC reported a net loss for the fourth fiscal quarter of $21.2
million, or $0.42 per share. For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010,
AMSC reported a net loss of $185.1 million, or $3.67 per share, which
included $155.3 million in aggregate one-time asset write-downs, impairments
and accrued charges. AMSC reported a net loss of $26.3 million, or $0.52
per share, for the third quarter of fiscal year 2011.
The company's total
backlog as of March 31, 2012 was approximately $291 million. This compares
with approximately $300 million as of December 31, 2011. Approximately
one-third of AMSC's backlog on March 31, 2012 was scheduled to be delivered
in fiscal year 2012.
"I am proud of the
resiliency and resolve that we demonstrated throughout fiscal year 2011,"
said AMSC President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel P. McGahn. "We
restructured our business, diversified our revenue streams and significantly
reduced our cost structure. Our fourth fiscal quarter proved to be a culmination
of these efforts as we exceeded all of our financial objectives and maintained
a healthy backlog. Now, with fiscal 2011 behind us and a bolstered balance
sheet in place, we are focused on driving year-over-year growth, enhancing
our gross margin and booking orders for shipment in late fiscal 2012 and
early fiscal 2013."
For the quarter ending
June 30, 2012, AMSC expects that its revenues will exceed $26 million.
AMSC expects that its net loss for the first quarter of fiscal 2012 will
be less than $10 million, or $0.19 per share, which includes a benefit
of approximately $7 million for the settlement of adverse purchase commitments
with certain vendors. AMSC expects that its non-GAAP net loss for the
first fiscal quarter will be less than $13 million, or $0.25 per share.
AMSC estimates that it will have approximately $85 million in cash, cash
equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash on June 30, 2012.
|
|
Applied Materials
2010 Company of the
Year
|
No
|
AMAT
|
$13.10
$9.78
(10.1.11)
|
$10.99
|
$16.94
$9.70
|
-16% &
+12%
|
|
Read "Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010
ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8. 2010 Company of the Year!
2Q earnings announced
on May 17, 2012. Applied generated orders of $2.77 billion and net sales
of $2.54 billion. GAAP net income was $289 million. "Our strong performance
in the quarter was driven by growing global demand for mobile products
such as smartphones and tablets," said Mike Splinter, chairman and chief
executive officer. "Applied's semiconductor products are enabling the
next generation of more powerful and feature-rich devices.
"Applied delivered
profitability at the high end of our expectations and increased operating
cash flow to 24 percent of net sales," said George Davis, chief financial
officer. "During the quarter, we announced a 13-percent dividend increase,
established a new three-year $3 billion share repurchase program, and
used $200 million to repurchase over 16 million shares of our common
stock."
|
|
iShares Australia
Index
|
No
|
EWA
|
$22.84
$19.36
(10.1.11)
|
$21.67
|
$28.36
$19.36
|
-5% &
+12%
|
|
Read "Are
Commodity-Rich Countries Worth a Look?" from Vol. 8, issue 6 and
"Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7. This fund was a rock star
on Wall Street in 2009-2010. Australia benefits from having lower debt
and a closer proximity to China than the U.S. Also, is rich in natural
resources (needed by China), lower in unemployment (at 5.1%) and avoided
the bank bailouts that sank the U.S. and U.K.
|
|
Pimco Australia Bond
Index
|
No
|
AUD
|
$98.90
$96.71
|
$99.97
|
$102.48
$94.80
|
+1% &
+3%
|
|
Read "The
Sexiest (& Safest) Investment in the World,"
"Are
Commodity-Rich Countries Worth a Look?" and "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 8, issue 12, Vol. 8, issue 6 and Vol.
7, issue 7. Pimco is a premiere bond fund corporation, headed up by the
legendary Bill Gross. Australia is one of the best investments in the
world right now.
|
|
Bank of Montreal
|
No
|
BMO
|
$54.08
|
$53.98
|
$66.64
$53.36
|
Flat
|
|
Refer to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details. Canada's
banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009;
Australia was #2. Canada has a higher debt to GDP ratio than the U.S.,
however, so don't dive in without testing the water first. Check out the
article
|
|
Canadian Imperial
Bank
RISK: Low
|
No
|
CM
|
$67.64
|
$70.04
|
$88.76
$67.05
|
+3%
|
|
Refer to the "Debt
World" article in volume 8, issue 2 for details. Canada's
banks were ranked #1 by the Milken Institute for global capital in 2009;
Australia was #2. Canada has a higher debt to GDP ratio than the U.S.,
however, so don't dive in without testing the water first. Check out the
article
|
|
iShares Chile Fund
|
No
|
ECH
|
$65.05
$51.16
(10.1.11)
|
$61.30
|
$80.38
$51.16
|
-6% &
+20%
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7,
issue 8.
|
|
iShares MSCI China
Small Cap Index Fund
|
No
|
ECNS
|
$48.38
$31.04
(10.1.11)
|
$34.44
|
$58.80
$31.04
|
-20% &
+11%
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Cree
|
Yes
|
CREE
|
$52.10
$22.00
(1.1.12)
|
$23.90
|
$83.38
$20.25
|
-54% &
+10%
|
|
Read "Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, and August 1, 2010 ezines,
Vol. 7, issue 8. Love the company. Revenue growth is solid. Sales to Asia
are strong. Future likes bright! And the price is finally right.
3Q earnings on
April 17, 2012. Revenue of $284.8 million. This represents a 30% increase
compared to revenue of $219.2 million reported for the third quarter of
fiscal 2011 and a 6% decrease compared to the second quarter of fiscal
2012. GAAP net income was $9.5 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, a
decrease of 50% year-over-year compared to GAAP net income of $18.9 million,
or $0.17 per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2011.
"Overall company
backlog is stronger than it was at this point last quarter, with Lighting,
LEDs and Power and RF all tracking ahead of Q2, although order visibility
is still limited. Our focus remains on driving adoption through innovation
and we believe we are well positioned to continue leading the transition
to LED lighting and drive growth in our business," Chuck Swoboda, Cree
chairman and CEO said, in the earnings press release.
|
|
iShares Emerging
Markets Index
|
No
|
EEM
|
$41.27
$34.29
(10.1.11)
|
$38.99
|
$50.30
$34.29
|
-6% &
+14%
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Eldorado Gold
|
No
|
EGO
|
$14.00
$11.60
(5.11.12)
|
$12.86
|
$22.12
$10.20
|
-8% &
+11%
|
|
Read "Investing
in Gold" from Vol. 6, issue 9. A Canadian-based, global
gold mining company. 2Q earnings will be released on May 3, 2012 after
the markets close.
1Q earnings on May
3, 2012. Profit = $68 million. 24% increase in gold revenues over the
same quarter in 2011, reflecting higher gold prices. Gold production of
155,535 ounces at an average cash operating cost of $452 per ounce.
Paul Wright, President
and CEO of Eldorado Gold, said, "With the addition of two gold development
projects in Greece and one gold development project in Romania, the acquisition
of European Goldfields is a key milestone in the Company's plans to reach
its annual production target in excess of 1.5 million ounces of gold by
2016."
|
|
FMC
Corp.
|
No
|
FMC
|
$50.41
|
$50.31
|
$108.39
$31.91
|
Flat
|
|
Read
"Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)" from Vol. 6, issue 4 and "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?", from Vol. 7, issue 2.
|
|
Galaxy Resources
RISK: HIGH
(off the boards,
thinly traded)
|
No
|
GALXF
|
$1.18
$0.58
(10.1.11)
|
$0.60
|
$1.80
$0.55
|
-49% &
+3%
|
|
Read "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2. Lithium exploration, mining, etc. in Australia and
China. Traded off the boards in the US, but is listed on the Australia
Stock Exchange.
On March 8, 2012,
Galaxy opened the largest battery grade lithium carbonate plant in the
Asia Pacific. The $100 million plant has a capacity of 17,000 tonnes a
year, according to the Galaxy press release.
Full year results
were released on March 21, 2012. Loss
was $130.5 million. Galaxy needed to raise $30 million in order to complete
the ramp up of the Mt. Caitlin mine and Jiangsu factory. This milestone
was achieved on April 12, 2012.
Galaxy has three
strong aspects -- Australia-based company in an emerging market -- lithium
-- with China as a partner. Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) is an
international S&P/ASX 300 Index Company which is soon to become one
of the world's leading producers of lithium - the essential component
for powering the world's fast expanding fleet of hybrid and electric cars.
By 2012, Galaxy's Mt Cattlin mine will be the world's second largest hard
rock producer of lithium and through the development of its value adding
lithium carbonate plant (17,000tpa), the Company will be the largest and
lowest cost lithium producer in China.
Galaxy wholly-owns
and operates the Mt. Cattlin mine, which is currently producing spodumene
concentrate. Lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate are forecast
to be in high future demand due to advances in long life batteries and
sophisticated electronics including mobile phones and computers.
Galaxy
Resources
has positioned itself to meet this lithium future by not only mining the
lithium, but also by downstream processing to supply lithium carbonate
to the expanding Asian market (through the Jiangsu plant which just opened
on March 8, 2012.
|
|
Goldman Sachs
|
No
|
GS
|
$108.34
$90.08
(10.1.11)
|
$95.66
|
$175.34
$84.27
|
-12% &
+6%
|
|
Annual & 4Q earnings
were announced on 4.13.12. 2011 revenues were $28.81 billion with a net
income of $4.4 billion for the year. The shareholder letter issued by
CEO Lloyd Blankfein focused quite extensively on "Our Client-Driven Strategy,"
without addressing the Elephant in the Room, the letter,
"Why
I am Leaving Goldman Sachs," by Greg Smith. Greg Smith resigned
3.13.12 as a Goldman Sachs executive director and head of the firm's United
States equity derivatives business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
This is the letter everyone has been talking about...
This past year was
dominated by global macro-economic concerns which significantly affected
our clients' risk tolerance and willingness to transact," said Lloyd
C. Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "While our results
declined as a consequence, I am pleased that the firm retained its industry-leading
positions across our global client franchise while prudently managing
risk, capital and expenses. As economies and markets improve, and we see
encouraging signs of this, Goldman Sachs is very well positioned to perform
for our clients and our shareholders."
|
|
Green
Dot
|
Yes
|
GDOT
|
$41.25
$28.50
(2.1.11)
|
$20.22
|
$65.10
$19.93
|
-51%
&
-30%
|
|
Read
"IPO of the Year" from Vol. 7, issue 3.
Announced
1Q results on April 26, 2012. Green Dot reported an 18% year-over-year
increase in non-GAAP total operating revenues1 to $145.5 million,
a 21% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP net income1 to $21.2
million and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share1 of $0.48.
GAAP results for the first quarter were $142.3 million in revenues, $17.1
million in net income, and $0.39 in diluted earnings per share.
"We're
off to a great start in 2012, posting solid top- and bottom-line organic
growth rates despite the planned discontinuation of the TurboTax program.
We are excited about the opportunities that exist in our sales pipeline
and believe we are well-positioned for continued success," said Steve
Streit, Green Dot's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Big
announcement on 1.26.12: Green Dot Corporation GDOT,
a provider of widely distributed, low-cost banking and payment solutions
to a broad base of U.S. consumers, is working with AARP Foundation and
MasterCard to launch the first prepaid card tailored to older Americans.
The AARP Foundation Prepaid MasterCard from Green Dot (the "Card")
is ideal for direct deposit of paychecks and federal benefit payments,
especially given new Federal requirements that all Social Security recipients
obtain payments electronically as of March 1, 2013.
WalMart
is a partner and investor.
|
|
Jiayuan
|
No
|
DATE
|
$12.70
$5.97
(1.1.12)
|
$4.70
|
$16.12
$3.60
|
-63%
&
-12%
|
|
Read
"Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3 & "The
Chinese Facebook," from Vol. 8, issue 9. Jiayuan is the Chinese
Match.com.
Jiayuan
holds their annual meeting on June 15, 2012.
On
4.26.12, Jiayuan added two very imp. Board directors. Mr. Xiaochuan Wang
has been the chief executive officer of Sogou.com and the Chief technology
officer at Sohu. Mr. Paul Keung has served as chief financial officer
and senior vice president of business development at NYSE-listed Taomee
Holdings Limited ("Taomee") since February 2011.
On
3.18.12, Jiayuan announced the addition of Co-CEO Linguang Wu. Mr. Yongqiang
Qian, chairman of the board of directors of Jiayuan, commented, "Linguang's
decade of experience developing and managing successful online and wireless
businesses is the perfect complement to [CEO Rose Gong's] visionary industry
leadership. I'm pleased to welcome him to the company, and I'm confident
that this appointment lays the groundwork for our next stage of growth."
4Q
and FY earnings on March 5, 2012. Net revenues for full year 2011
were US$52.6 million, a year-over-year increase of 97.7%. Net income attributable
to Jiayuan for full year 2011 was US$5.9 million, a year-over-year increase
of 122.8%.
CEO
Rose Gong said, "We are delighted to see that the number of activated
smartphone apps accessing Jiayuan's services reached a new record of approximately
two million by the end of the quarter."
The
board approved a US$10 million share repurchase program on Dec. 22, 2011.
|
|
iShares S&P Latin
America 40 Index
|
No
|
ILF
|
$43.92
$37.84
(10.1.11)
|
$41.00
|
$55.38
$37.84
|
-7% &
+8%
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7,
issue 8.
|
|
McEwen
Mining
(formerly
U.S. Gold) 2009 Company of the Year
|
Yes
|
MUX
|
$5.57
$3.69
(12.15.11)
|
$2.92
|
$9.87
$0.50
|
-48% &
-22%
|
|
U.S.
Gold changed its name to McEwen Mining.
Note:
McEwen Mining is not producing gold at this time; is it a gold exploration
company, based in Nevada and Mexico which has begun the process of filing
for production permits, with a goal of producing gold by 2014.
Added
back to the Hot List on June 8, 2011.
The
problem with MUX is Argentina. MUX CEO Rob McEwen is being forthcoming
about the difficulties associated with Argentina's denial of capital to
MUX. So I encourage you to read these updates on the McEwen
website. CEO McEwen has over $190 million of his own dough in the game,
so he's in this to win. Headwinds abound right now, however.
McEwen
Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 2, 2010, and
has a goal of qualifying for the S&P 500 by 2015. McEwen Mining explores
for gold and silver in the Americas and is advancing its El Gallo Project
in Mexico and its Gold Bar Project in Nevada towards production. McEwen's
shares are listed on the NYSE and the TSX. Added to the S&P/TSX Global
Gold Index and S&P/TSX Global Mining Index on 9.15.09. Added to the
Chicago Board of Options Exchange on July 19, 2010. Began trading on the
AMEX stock exchange on 12.11.06.
McEwen
Mining (aka U.S. Gold then) was the 2009
Company of the Year. The article was featured in the October 2009
ezine, Vol. 6, issue 10.
|
|
MEMC Electronics
|
Yes
|
WFR
|
$11.99
$4.09
(1.1.12)
|
$2.01
|
$13.80
$1.44
|
-83% &
-50%
|
|
Read "One
Hot, Overlooked Commodity: Sand,"
Vol. 8, issue 5 and "The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. Investor call on 2.15.12
at 5:30 ET.
S&P's downgraded
MEMC's senior debt to a B+ rating on 5.24.12. "We are disappointed with
the rating change by S&P," commented Brian Wuebbels, MEMC's Chief
Financial Officer, "but we are comfortable that our cash and liquidity
position is sufficient to meet our current cash needs. The credit downgrade
by S&P today will not adversely affect our current access to our existing
non-recourse construction revolver for SunEdison construction activities."
CFO left on 5.15.12
to become CEO of Praxair. MEMC promoted Brian Wuebbels to the Chief Financial
Officer role.
On Dec. 8, 2011,
MEMC announced major restructuring, layoffs, cost savings and impairment
changes. Should position the company to be leaner and meaner at the end
of 2012, but the financials in the interim could look ugly.
1Q earnings results
were released on May 9, 2012. GAAP revenue for the first quarter was $519.2
million, representing a decline of 29% from $735.9 million in the first
quarter of 2011 and a decrease of 28% from $717.8 million in the fourth
quarter of 2011. The year-over-year decline was due to lower solar
and semiconductor wafer volume and pricing, partially offset by sales
of excess polysilicon inventory, higher solar project direct sales and
solar energy revenue. The sequential decrease was primarily driven
by lower solar project sales, significantly lower solar wafer volume and
pricing and weaker semiconductor wafer volume and pricing. Solar
wafer sales to external parties are expected to decline to minimal levels
due to the company's strategic shift to primarily supplying wafers for
internal consumption.
Net
loss was $92 million.
MEMC ended the 2012
first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $380.6 million, a decrease
of $205.2 million from the prior quarter, driven primarily by vendor payments
and higher solar energy systems held for development and sale. Unrestricted
cash and unused corporate revolver capacity was $636.9 million at the
end of the 2012 first quarter. The company continues to implement
programs to manage its liquidity and capital resources and expects to
maintain adequate liquidity during 2012.
|
|
PowerShares Lux Nanotech
|
No
|
PXN
|
$8.87
$5.54 (10.1.11)
|
$6.18
|
$10.85
$5.54
|
-31% &
+11%
|
|
Potential hot industry
for your pie chart. Read the 2010
Company of the Year article from December 2010 ezine, Vol.
7, issue 12. Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
PowerShares Wilderhill
Clean Energy Portfolio ETF
|
No
|
PBW
|
$9.91
$5.02
(10.1.11)
|
$4.25
|
$11.42
$4.04
|
-57% &
-14%
|
|
Read "$100/Barrel
Oil"
from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.
|
|
Rio Tinto
|
No
|
RIO
|
$59.86
$42.87
(10.1.11)
|
$46.34
|
$76.67
$42.87
|
-23% &
+8%
|
|
Gold, copper and
other commodities mining. Based out of Australia. Mines worldwide, but
great way to capitalize on Australia's robust economy.
Annual 2011 results
were released on February 9, 2012. Record underlying earnings of $15.5
billion, 11 per cent above 2010's results. Net earnings $5.8 billion,
59% lower than 2010.
$7 billion share
buy-back programme on track for completion by end of the first quarter.
To date $6.2 billion has been completed, representing 103 million Rio
Tinto plc shares equivalent to five per cent of the Group's issued share
capital.
Chairman Jan du Plessis
said, "Whilst we have today reported excellent underlying earnings
numbers, we also have to recognise that we have taken a significant impairment
charge in relation to our aluminium business. As this charge largely relates
to the acquisition of Alcan, Tom Albanese and Guy
Elliott have notified
the Remuneration Committee that they did not wish to be considered for
an annual bonus and
I think that is absolutely right.
"We anticipate
that uncertainty in the financial markets, particularly around the euro,
together with elevated price volatility will continue into 2012. This
leads us to remain cautious about near term prospects. However, the medium
to long term picture remains very positive for metals and minerals as
strong demand growth from emerging markets continues.
|
|
Satcon
2011 Company of the
Year
|
Yes
|
SATC
|
$3.77
$0.42
(4.1.12)
|
$0.25
|
$5.51
$0.39
|
-94% &
-41%
|
|
Read "2011
Company of the Year," from Vol. 8, issue 4 and "$100/Barrel
Oil"
from the March 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 3.
Satcon provided a
1Q update on 4.11.12: Based on preliminary financial data and subject
to the final closing of the company's books, Satcon expects first-quarter
2012 revenue will be between $22 million and $25 million, in line with
its previously announced guidance of $22 million to $28 million. Bookings
for the first quarter were approximately $45 million, an increase of approximately
130% from the fourth quarter of 2011 and 27% from the first quarter of
2011. In addition, the quarter was the company's most successful bookings
period in four quarters, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.9:1.
4Q and Full-year
results on March 1, 2012. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2011 was $36.0
million, compared with revenue of $45.0 million in the third quarter of
2011. For the year ended 2011, sales reached $188.6 million, a 9% increase
over 2010 sales, and total megawatts shipped equaled 800, a 16% increased
over total megawatts shipped in 2010. North America continued to be the
company's strongest performing region in Q4, representing 94% of total
revenue and megawatts shipped. Net loss was $83.5 million.
"Despite significant
pricing pressure and uncertainties around program subsidies in the solar
market, 2011 was a growth year for Satcon," said Steve Rhoades, Satcon's
President and Chief Executive Officer. "Shipments into North America
nearly doubled as we continued to strengthen our relationships with some
of the region's leading solar integrators and EPC's.
"Our North America
and Asia experienced significant growth for us. The utility-scale ground-mounted
European market flattened under government policy changes and uncertainty.
This caused significant price pressure in what had been of highly profitable
market for SatCon just a year before and continues to be challenging in
the first half of 2012. The dynamics of these market changes have forced
the industry including SatCon to adjust," CEO Rhoades confirmed in a call
after the results were announced.
North America continued
to be our strongest performing market in 2011 with shipments nearly doubling
over 2010, representing 81% of megawatt shipped during the year. As European
ground mount solar declined, we saw a number Europe based inverter manufacturers
entered the US market. Despite this, SatCon continues to maintain its
leadership position, shipping 645 megawatts into North America in the
year.
US domestic market
was expected to grow over 50% in 2011 and this is evident in our pipeline
activity or in the past three months alone, we have added 2.5 gigawatts
to our pipeline for medium voltage solutions for projects expected to
begin construction in the next 12 months. We continue to invest in our
leading solution portfolio for the North American solar market and we'll
be introducing several new products and services over the coming months
as we see a significant long-term opportunity to build on our leadership
in North America.
The Asia solar market
also represented sizable growth for SatCon in 2011 and we see a significant
opportunity to expand our presence in these markets in 2012. The China
market where SatCon was the second largest inverter supplier in 2010 is
expected to triple in size from over 1.5 gigawatts in 2011 to over 5 gigawatts
in 2015. To take advantage of this growth SatCon has entered into a strategic
sales distribution and manufacturing partnership which we announced earlier
this year. I'll go into more detail about that in a few minutes.
Favorable government
policies have also created growth opportunities in other parts of Asia
including Thailand, Taiwan and India. SatCon delivered 36 megawatts of
its industry-leading 500 kilowatt PowerGate Plus inverters to India last
year in a market that had an estimated size of 200 megawatts in 2011 and
is expected to grow to 3.5 gigawatts by 2015. In addition, SatCon delivered
25 megawatts into Taiwan in the same year and this market is expected
to grow considerably over the next few years.
Operating the solar
market can be challenging is our expectation and certainly our pipeline
supports this notion that the global utility and commercial solar market
will grow rapidly in the next several years.
In addition to the
operational aspects of our partnership, SatCon has entered into a non-exclusive
sales and marketing agreement with CEC, Great Wall for the distribution
of SatCon solar inverters for China. The partnership will position SatCon
to capitalize on the estimated 14 gigawatts of utility-scale projects
under development there. Of the 14 gigawatts of identified non-residential
solar projects in development in China today, nearly two thirds are expected
to be developed by China state-owned entities and our partnership with
CC Great Wall greatly strengthens our competitive position for this China
SOEs.
While 2011 was a
difficult year for SatCon and for the entire solar industry I'm extremely
excited about our prospects going forward. We are tacking the fastest
growing markets in new ways, partnering with new and powerful companies,
introducing new products for both alike commercial and utility-scale markets,
completely resetting our expense structure and continuing the successful
work done to-date to reduce both our working capital and the debt we carry
on our balance sheet. We will reach our goals of profitability and cash
generation by the second half of 2012."
Satcon's share price
is too low. The company has been advised by NASDAQ to get it above $1.00
per share for 10 consecutive trading days by June 18, 2012. If they do,
all is well. If they don't, but everything else is in order, Satcon may
receive another 180 days grace period. If the share price is still out
of compliance by June 18, 2012 and there are other listing issues, then
NASDAQ could notify Satcon that the company is subject to delisting.
2.7.12: Satcon announced
a partnership with Great Wall Computer Company Limited (GWPC
0.00%, news),
a majority-owned subsidiary of China Electronics Corporation (CEC
-0.62%, news).
The partnership will position Satcon to capitalize on the estimated 14GW
of utility scale projects under development, fueled by the country's Feed-In
Tariff program. Of the 14GW of identified non-residential solar projects
in development in China today, the majority are expected to be developed
by China State Owned Entities.
Satcon announced
major restructuring on 1.4.12. As part of the organizational restructuring,
the company will reduce its workforce by 140 employees worldwide, or approximately
35%. This reduction, combined with the closure of the Canadian facility,
will result in charges of approximately $2.8 million to $3.0 million.
The majority of the charges are expected to occur in the fourth quarter
of 2011, with the remainder taking place in the first quarter of 2012.
The company expects ongoing savings of approximately $15 million to $17
million annually once all actions are implemented by the second quarter
of 2012. An additional charge of $20-$26 million is expected for inventory
overstocking issues.
|
|
Sohu
|
No
|
SOHU
|
$81.67
$47.42
(10.1.11)
|
$43.62
|
$109.37
$41.18
|
-47% &
-8%
|
|
Read "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3 and "The
Chinese Facebook,"
from Vol. 8, issue 9. Sohu is a Chinese mega portal, with gaming, news,
search and TV.
1Q results on April
30 2012. Total Revenues were US$227 Million, Up 30% Year-over-Year and
down 8% quarter-over-quarter. GAAP net income was $20 million.
|
|
Sunpower
|
No
|
SPWR
|
$24.83
$7.14
(10.1.10)
|
$4.85
|
$23.36
$4.51
|
-81% &
-30%
|
|
Read "The
Sunny Side" in Vol. 6, issue 3. You know I love solar,
but this industry is in major distress mode. Just waiting for Spring Rally
to end before taking off this list.
1Q earnings announced
on May 3, 2012. Revenue $494.1 million. GAAP net
loss = $74.5 million.
March 27, 2012: Sunpower
announced they have begun production of their world-record efficiency
solar cell, which delivers sunlight to electricity conversion efficiency
of up to 24 percent. Sunpower panels are the most efficient in the world
and have powered most of the Solar Decathlon winning teams. Maryland,
the 2011 Solar Decathlon winner, used Sanyo solar panels, but needed six
more panels to compete in the energy contests than #2 ranked Purdue (which
used Sunpower).
Sunpower has a new
CFO as of 3.21.12. Charles (Chuck) D. Boynton has been named SunPower's
new executive vice president and chief financial officer (CFO). Boynton
joined SunPower in June of 2010, serving as the company's vice president
of corporate finance and corporate development, with global responsibility
for finance, planning and analysis and leading strategic investments,
joint ventures, and mergers and acquisitions.
SunPower Corp. SPWR
announced on 1.18.12 that the company has broken ground on a 13.78-megawatt
(DC) solar photovoltaic (PV) power system at Naval Air Weapons Station
China Lake (NAWS China Lake) in California. The plant is expected to create
140 jobs during construction, and generate the equivalent of more than
30 percent of NAWS China Lake's annual energy load, helping to reduce
costs by an estimated $13 million over the next 20 years.
|
|
Suntech Power Holdings
(solar)
|
No
|
STP
|
$14.26
$1.77
(10.1.11)
|
$1.84
|
$15.55
$1.50
|
-87% &
+2%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. The world's largest crystalline
silicon photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturer. You know I love solar,
but this industry is in major distress mode. Just waiting for Spring Rally
to end before taking off this list.
1Q results announced
on May 23, 2012. Total net revenues were $409.5 million, a decrease
of 34.9% from $629.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 and a decrease
of 53.3% from $877.0 million in the first quarter of 2011. Net
loss was $133.0 million.
Cash and restricted cash totaled $663.8 million as of March 31, 2012.
"Cost reduction continues
to be the top priority for our business and we have outlined a clear roadmap
for the remainder of the year." according to chairman and CEO Dr. Shengrong
Shi.
4.12.12: Suntech
Power Holdings Co., Ltd. STP,
the world's largest producer of solar panels, recently supplied 3.4 megawatts
(MW
-1.02%, news)
of solar panels for a solar installation at Edwards Air Force Base in
Southern California. The solar installation at Edwards Air Force Base
was designed, financed, and installed by Borrego
Solar. 12,000 panels were provided. STP is a Chinese company,
however, since the panels were made in AZ (USA), the company is in compliance
with the Buy American Act.
|
|
Trina Solar LTD.
|
No
|
TSL
|
$27.92
$5.58
(10.1.11)
|
$6.59
|
$31.89
$5.01
|
-76% &
+18%
|
|
Read
"The
Sunny Side" Vol. 6, issue 3. You know I love solar, but
this industry is in major distress mode. Just waiting for Spring Rally
to end before taking off this list.
1Q earnings were
announced on May 23, 2012. Net revenues were $349.9 million, a decrease
of 19.7% sequentially. Net loss was $29.8 million, compared to net loss
of $65.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.
TSL lost a board
director to the government (a good sign). On Jan. 9, 2012 the company
announced "Mr. Junfeng Li, who was appointed an independent director in
November 2007, will focus on his recent appointment by the National Development
and Reform Commission as Director of the National Research Center for
Climate Strategies."
According to Jifan
Gao, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Trina Solar, "Though we see
further signs of industry consolidation, we are addressing the challenges
of the current market environment by accelerating the delivery of innovative,
technology-driven products and providing differentiated service offerings.
We were pleased to announce our successful execution and early April delivery
of 500 MW of our high-efficiency Honey technology-based module capacity,
which currently offers module power of up to 265 watts for rooftop applications.
Additionally, our first quarter benefited from shipments to the United
States in connection with qualified projects under the U.S.'s 1603 Federal
Grant Program."
|
|
Veeco
|
Yes
|
VECO
|
$42.74
$21.46
(10.1.11)
|
$33.28
|
$56.05
$20.35
|
-23% &
+55%
|
|
Read "LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12. VECO was added
on 7.6.11, with a special alert sent to subscribers at that time.
1Q results announced
on April 30, 2012. $139.9 million in revenue, down from $254.7 million
a year ago. Net income was $19 million, compared to $61.3 million a year
ago.
Veeco generated about
$42 million in cash flow from operations, ending the quarter with $524
million in cash and short term investments.
"As anticipated,
we experienced a weak bookings environment in Q1, with total orders of
approximately $113 million," continued Mr. Peeler. "LED &
Solar orders totaled $85 million, with $70 million in MOCVD and $15 million
in MBE. MOCVD orders increased 19% sequentially, with system orders from
customers in Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan and North America. MBE orders
increased 71% sequentially on production orders from wireless customers.
Data Storage bookings declined 62% sequentially to $29 million as customer
consolidation activity temporarily stalled capacity investments."
Veeco's book-to-bill ratio was 0.81 to 1 and quarter-end backlog was $305
million.
Second Quarter
2012 Guidance & Outlook
Veeco's
second quarter 2012 revenue is currently forecasted to be between $120
million and $145 million. Earnings per share are currently forecasted
to be between $0.20 to $0.40 on a GAAP basis, and $0.29 to $0.48 on a
non-GAAP basis. Please refer to the attached financial table for
more details.
Watch my 2.3.11 report
on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
John R. Peeler, Veeco's
Chief Executive Officer, has become the chairman of the board effective
May 7, 2012.
|
|
Youku
|
Yes
|
YOKU
|
$25.06
$15.88
|
$24.37
|
$69.95
$15.88
|
-3% &
+53%
|
|
Read "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3 and "The
Chinese Facebook,"
from Vol. 8, issue 9. Youku is the Chinese Hulu and YouTube. Internet
and mobile TV is more popular than old school television in China, which
has more than 513 Internet users (as of January 2012).
Youku and Toudu announced
on March 12, 2012 that the two companies would merge. Once the deal is
completed, the combined entity will be named Youku Tudou Inc, and headed
by Youku chairman and CEO Victor Koo. Tudou's CEO Gary Wang will join
the new entity's board of directors. Youk
4Q and FY earnings
were released on March 14, 2012. Revenues were $49.1 million, 103% higher
than a year ago. Net loss was $7.9 million, 32% higher than last year.
Net loss for the year was $27.3 million, a 16% decrease from 2010. Cash
on hand was $587 million as of 12.31.11.
Youku incorporated
in the Cayman Islands on September 20, 2005.
|
Deleted Companies
2010-2011:
Deleted
1.11.10: KCI with 88% gains! Deleted 8.1.10: Galaxy Resources
with 48% and 9% returns and Rio Tinto with 21% gains. Deleted 9.13.10:
American Superconductor (flat) & AOL (flat). 10.1.10: Blockbuster
busted out in bankruptcy on 9.28.10. KLAC was deleted with 11% gains. 10.15.10:
ENER1 was deleted with flat performance. 11.11.10: ENER1 was deleted with 37%
gains. VECO was deleted with 2% & 41% gains. 12.1.10: KLIC was deleted with
12% gains. 1.14.11: Advanced Materials was deleted with 30% gains. 2.2.11: BEARX
with losses of 14%. 2.14.11: McEwen with 14.5X gains. 6.13.11: EPU with flat
performance. 9.7.11: Deleted Eldorado Gold with 38% & 52% gains. 11.14.11:
HEV with heavy losses, VMW and KLAC for gains of 32-33% & Tesla for 40%
gains. 12.12.11: Google with 16-27% gains. 1.3.12: Hoku with losses of 70-95%,
LDK Solar with mixed results. 1.15.12: FMC with gains of 36% and MSFT with 15-19%
gains. 2.1.12: Netflix with up to 84% gains. 4.15.12: AOL with gains of 22-124%
& Shutterfly with 7-30% gains. 6.6.12: GAF for 11% gains, Oracle for 5%
gains, SQM for 13%, SOXX for 13%, Westbak for 12%.
Deleted Companies
2008-2009:
60 winners and 9 losers.
Recently Deleted
from the Hot News list:
AOL (on 4.15.12)
S&P Middle
East & Africa Fund (GAF) on 6.6.12
Oracle (ORCL)
on 6.6.12
Shutterly
(on 4.15.12)
Sociedad chimica
y minera (SQM) on 6.6.12
SOXX on 6.6.12
Westbak on
6.6.12
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to List
|
Price
4.13.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
S&P Emerging
Middle East and Africa Fund
|
No
|
GAF
|
$60.06
|
$66.54
|
$79.97
$57.00
|
+11%
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
AOL
|
No
|
AOL
|
$21.22
$11.53
(10.1.11)
|
$25.79
|
$29.45
$10.06
|
+22% &
+124%
|
|
Read "AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12 and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
4Q2011 earnings on
February 1, 2012: revenue was $576.8 million, down 3% from a year ago.
Net income was $22.8 million, versus income of $66.2 million a year ago..
AOL owns Huffington
Post, Moviefone, Mapquest, among other popular destinations. Launched
Editions on Aug. 2 for iPad -- the magazine that customizes reading experiences
for each user.
Per ComScore Net
Ratings (2.12 data), AOL is the 5th most trafficked "web
parent companies" in the United States, right behind Facebook, Microsoft,
Yahoo and Google. Sales for AOL is $2.20 billion annually, but there is
plenty of room for this company to come closer to Yahoo's $5 billion in
annual revenue and take a bite out of Google's $40 billion.
So, why take AOL
off the Hot Stocks List now? Adhering to the winning strategy of "take
your profits early and often." In today's volatile marketplace, today's
gains are tomorrow's losses. With the rollercoaster ride that Wall Street
has been taking for the last decade, there may be opportunity to purchase
AOL low again before it reaches its potential (no guarantees, however).
|
|
Oracle
|
No
|
ORCL
|
$25.87
|
$27.53
|
$36.50
$21.24
|
+5%
|
|
Read "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google"
from the February 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2. 3Q earnings were announced
on 3.20.12. Total revenues were up 3% to $9 billion. GAAP net income was
up 18% to $2.5 billion.
|
|
Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$27.56
$22.70
(1.15.12)
|
$29.48
|
$66.70
$21.34
|
+7% &
+30%
|
|
Read "Diamonds
or Scrapbooking," from
the November 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue 11.
Why take your profits
on Shutterfly? First of all, I'm adhering to the winning strategy of "take
your profits early and often." In today's volatile marketplace, today's
gains are tomorrow's losses. The second reason is that, although Shutterfly
has made huge fans and may even purchase Eastman Kodak's customers, the
Facebook acquisition of Instagram puts Shutterfly's future into question.
There is no doubt that Facebook has a corner on the marketplace of photo
sharing... When they monetize that, every other game in town is in trouble...
Announced results
on 2.1.12. Net revenues for the year totaled $473.3 million, a 54% year-over-year
increase. GAAP net income was $14.0 million, compared to $17.1 million
in 2010.
P/E is higher than
we like, but Shutterfly is an acquisition play, and thus could still add
a little more color to your stock sheet.
CFO left on Feb.
24, 2012 to "pursue a personal passion with an early stage medical technology
company." He stayed on through yearend results, which lends credibility
to this story of the events.
On March 6, 2012,
SFLY expanded its photo book offering to cater to the "yearbook" school
crowd. According to Gretchen Sloan, Shutterfly's corporate communications
executive, "We believe it's a compelling solution for the more than 100,000
elementary schools in the U.S."
|
|
Sociedad Minera y
Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$46.39
|
$52.66
|
$67.75
$46.00
|
+13%
|
|
This is a great company
that manufactures lithium for the electric car & IT industry and potash
for agriculture. Businesses include: Specialty Plant Nutrition, Iodine
and Lithium.
Read the article, "Treasure
Hunting,"
in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium),"
from Vol. 6, issue 4.
SQM began paying
a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592 per share, with
US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11, 2011.
|
|
iShares S&P North
American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
SOXX
|
$44.22
|
$50.45
|
$64.19
$44.17
|
+14%
|
|
Read "LED
Lighting," from Vol.
7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year from
Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace
on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$92.34
|
$102.63
|
$138.58
$92.34
|
+12%
|
|
Issued it's annual
results on November 15, 2011. Go to Westpac.com.au to access. Australian
banks fared far better than the rest of the world banks. So did Canadian
banks. P/E is good, but the debt is quite high, at 4.34 X equity (on 5.15.11).
Net profit of $6.9
billion, up 7% year over year
Westpac's Chief Executive
Officer, Gail Kelly, said: "Today, Westpac is one of the world's leading
banks on almost any measure. We have emerged very safely from the last
four years of economic uncertainty with a set of capabilities that distinguish
us from our peers and as a much stronger company for the longer term."
|
Stocks
to Watch
Some of these
are great companies that we're thinking of adding to the Hot List and some are
stinkers we're thinking of adding to the Cooling Off List. Read carefully
to identify which is which! Note that right now many of our favorite companies
are on the Watch List. Getting the price right is as important as picking the
right company. Never pay retail!
Recent
Additions:
S&P
Middle East & Africa Fund (GAF) on 6.6.12
Oracle (ORCL) on 6.6.12
Sociedad Chimica y Minera (SQM) on 6.6.12
SOXX on 6.6.12
Westback (WBK) on 6.6.12
Recent
Deletions:
Amazon (AMZN) on
6.6.12 (moved to Cooling Off List)
AOL
(AOL) on 6.6.12 (moved to Cooling Off List)
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to List
|
Price
6.15.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
S&P Emerging
Middle East and Africa Fund
|
No
|
GAF
|
$66.54
|
$65.44
|
$79.97
$57.00
|
--
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Apple
|
No
|
AAPL
|
$351.99
|
$574.13
|
$644.00
$310.50
|
|
|
2Q earnings announced
on April 24, 2012 at 2:00 p.m. PT.
On March 19, 2012,
Apple announced that, subject to declaration by the Board of Directors,
the Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share
sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2012, which begins on July
1, 2012.
Additionally, the Company's Board of Directors has authorized a $10 billion
share repurchase program commencing in the Company's fiscal 2013, which
begins on September 30, 2012. The repurchase program is expected to be
executed over three years, with the primary objective of neutralizing
the impact of dilution from future employee equity grants and employee
stock purchase programs.
On March 24, 2012,
the Fair
Labor Association announced the results of their audit of
the Apple/Foxconn factories in China. In their press release, FLA stated,
"FLA found excessive overtime and problems with overtime compensation;
several health and safety risks; and crucial communication gaps that have
led to a widespread sense of unsafe working conditions among workers."
According to ABC News anchor Bob Weir, Apple responded to the report,
saying, "We appreciate the work that the FLA has done at FoxConn and we
fully support their recommendations." FoxConn released a statement the
same day saying they vowed to reduce worker's hours without reducing wages.
So, overall, the news coverage of the report was pretty positive. Despite
the fact that there were 9 suicides in 2010 at FoxConn and the company
still has "suicide nets" to prevent more.
|
|
Baidu
|
No
|
BIDU
|
$124.96
|
$119.38
|
$165.96
$94.33
|
|
|
Read, "Is
China a Cheap Date?" from Vol. 9, issue 3.
Hot company. Buy
at a god price.
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway
|
No
|
BRK.B
|
$85.30
|
$82.57
|
$87.65
$65.35
|
|
|
Warren Buffett's
company has more exposure to the bank bailouts (Wells Fargo and American
Express to name just two) than most investors realize. And, contrary to
what he used to say, the company engages in active trading and hedging.
Plus, he's 82 and doesn't have a clear, young successor in place. (Last
one, David Sokol, had to resign on March 30, 2011.)
|
|
iShares JP Morgan
Emerging Markets Index
|
No
|
EMB
|
$104.63
|
$113.53
|
$115.00
$103.57
|
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7.
|
|
Facebook
|
No
|
FB
|
$38.00
|
$30.00
|
$45.00
$25.75
|
|
|
Read "Facebook,"
from Vol. 9, issue 2 and "Mark
Zuckerberg"
from Vol. 9, issue 7.
|
|
First Solar
|
No
|
FSLR
|
$144.76
|
$13.95
|
$175.45
$11.43
|
|
|
See "Solar
Springs Up Again," article in Vol. 5, iss 4. On August 16,
2012, CFO Jens Meyerhoff left to "self-reflect" on his next steps. (red
flag) First Solar was removed from the NASDAQ 100 Index, and replaced
by Texas Instruments, on April 14, 2012.
First Solar uses
cadmium telluride instead of silicon to transfer sunlight into useable
energy. Cadmium telluride isn't as abundant or as efficient a power source
as silicon, and now that silicon is affordable, First Solar has a crisis
at the core of its business model. The entire solar industry has been
under attack for the last year, however, the silicon manufacturers have
a business model that should work going forward, whereas First Solar may
have to retool to become competitive. I first warned of this in April
of 2008. Click the blue-linked article to read.
|
|
Ford Motor Co.
|
No
|
F
|
$14.55
|
$10.35
|
$18.97
$9.05
|
|
|
Read "How
Cap and Trade Saved Ford" from Vol. 6, issue 4.
Ford is making cars people want to drive, but be careful with any investment
here. The same conditions that plagued Chrysler and GM are present here
-- lots of debt, pensions and Other Post Employment Benefit Obligations.
Ford built cars that won awards in 2010 (and attracted consumer interest).
And for that they get a big bravo.
Ford's credit rating
is below investment grade, at BB+ (as of 10.21.11, by S&P), with a
Stable Outlook. If pensions and other post employment benefits are considered,
the debt and liabilities load increases. As of the Annual Report, which
was released on 2.21.12, the pensions were underfunded by $24.8 billion
and debt was $99.5 billion.
|
|
General Electric
|
No
|
GE
|
$19.05
|
$20.00
|
$21.17
$14.02
|
--
|
|
Read "Apple
Joins $500 Billion Club," from the March 1, 2012 ezine,
Vol. 9, issue 3. GE is carrying more than 3X debt to equity. The legacy
problems that dogged the airlines and auto manufacturers (and sent them
into Chapter 11 restructuring) are present at GE, too.
|
|
General Motors
|
No
|
GM
|
$33.11
|
$21.74
|
$33.75
$19.00
|
--
|
|
Read "One
Very Hot IPO," from the September 1, 2010 ezine, Vol.
7, issue 9. Chevy Volt won Motor Trend's 2011 Car of the Year,
but can GM regain market share from worldwide market leader, Toyota? GM
may have shed a lot of debt in the bankruptcy filing, however, the company's
profit margins remain very slim at 4%.
|
|
Google
|
No
|
GOOG
|
$627.42
|
$564.51
|
$670.25
$473.02
|
|
|
See Vol. 8, issue
2 article, "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google," and Vol. 6, issue 5 for "Hulu
Your Heroes." Excellent company and great anchor
for your large caps in the nest egg. Just be sure to add at a reasonably
good price (not the 52-week high).
|
|
GroupOn
|
No
|
GRPN
|
$18.95
|
$10.06
|
$31.14
$8.80
|
|
|
Read "Is
GroupOn a Deal?" and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?," from the Dec. 1, 2011 and
July 1, 2011 ezines, Vol. 8, issue 12 and 7. Questions about management,
governance, accounting and negative cash flow have us concerned about
the viability of GroupOn as an investment. Read the articles for additional
information.
|
|
Intuitive Surgical
|
No
|
ISRG
|
$584.52
|
$531.66
|
$584.52
$320
|
--
|
|
Read
"Robo
Doc"
Vol. 9, issue 5.
|
|
KLA Tencor
|
No
|
KLAC
|
$49.00
|
$48.31
|
$55.15
$26.69
|
|
|
Read "LED
Lighting," from the August 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue
8.
Watch my 2.3.11
report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
Check out this Fox
Biz interview with CEO of KLA on 9.27.11.
|
|
Kulicke & Soffa
|
No
|
KLIC
|
$8.71
|
$9.24
|
$13.69
$6.71
|
|
|
Read "Let
There Be Light" and "LED
Lighting," from the December 1, 2010 and August 1, 2010
ezines, Vol. 7, issue 12 and 8.
|
|
iShares MSCI Indonesia
Index
|
No
|
EIDO
|
$30.72
|
$27.27
|
$32.92
$22.80
|
|
|
Read "Travel
Rewards,"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
|
|
Microsoft
|
No
|
MSFT
|
$28.25
|
$30.02
|
$32.95
$22.73
|
|
|
Watch my appearance
on CNBC,
outlining the reasons Skype is a very hot acquisition for Microsoft, and
read my article, "One
Very Hot IPO" from the September 1, 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue. 9. Microsoft purchased Skype on May 10, 2011 for $8.5 billion
in cash.
|
|
Netflix
|
No
|
NFLX
|
$124.00
|
$65.79
|
$304.79
$60.70
|
|
|
Read my article,
"Blockbuster's
Second Coming"
from the May 1, 2010 ezine, Vol. 7, issue. 5.
|
|
Orocobre
|
No
|
OROCF
|
$2.35
|
$1.19
|
$4.03
$0.97
|
|
|
Read "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2. This is an Australian lithium company with a deal
with Toyota to supply lithium for lithium ion batteries. Began trading
on TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) in June of 2010 and trades on the Australian
Stock Exchange as well.
On March 7, 2011,
Orocobre announced that the Argentinian government is slowing down the
permit process for the proposed lithium potash project in NW Argentina.
On March 4, 2011, the local government declared lithium to be a strategic
mineral resource and introduced a secondary approvals process. According
to the decree, additional approval will be required for both the Olaroz
lithium-potash project for which the Company has already received approval
of its development and production EIS, and the Cauchari lithium-potash
project, for which an exploration EIS has been submitted. This new process
does not affect the Company's program at Salinas Grandes, which is predominantly
located in Salta Province. However, as of Oct. 31, 2011, Orocobre is still
"actively engaged" in the secondary approvals, without measurable progress.
The company is based
in Brisbane, Queensland, which had extensive flooding last year. Lithium
production isn't projected to begin until 2012 and with the new developments
in Argentina, this could be further delayed.
Orocobre Limited
is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange
(ASX:ORE, TSX:ORL) and is the leading lithium-potash developer in the
lithium and potassium rich Puna region of Argentina. For further information,
please visit www.orocobre.com.
|
|
Oracle
|
No
|
ORCL
|
$27.53
|
$27.70
|
$36.50
$21.24
|
FLAT
|
|
Read "Big
Bites Out of Apple and Google" from the February 1, 2011
ezine, Vol. 8, issue 2. 3Q earnings were announced on 3.20.12. Total revenues
were up 3% to $9 billion. GAAP net income was up 18% to $2.5 billion.
|
|
iShares MSCI All
Peru Index Fund
|
No
|
EPU
|
$40.73
|
$41.87
|
$51.35
$29.79
|
|
|
Read "Hot
Funds," from Vol. 7, issue 7 and "Latin
American
Funds Doubled" article from the August 2010 ezine, Vol. 7,
issue 8. Left-winger Ollanta Humala, a career military man who has moderated
his anti-capitalist views since narrowly losing the 2006 election, won
the Presidential election.
President Humala
notes that Peru has had economic growth of 7-8% for 8 years. He calls
the Peruvian economy "solid." While Humala promises that the
poor will receive more of the country's profits, he also says that his
central bank will be run by an independent and that he wants to work closely
with the United States. Check out this video interview with Humala
by Reuters.
|
|
Priceline
|
No
|
PCLN
|
$508.15
|
$659.41
|
$774.96
$411.26
|
|
|
Read the article
"The
Priceline Negotiator," from Vol. 7, issue 10.
Great company. Don't want people buying in high, hoping to sell higher.
And if you made a healthy gain, considering capturing profits.
4Q & FY results
were announced on February 27, 2012. For full-year 2011, the Group had
revenues of $4.36 billion, a 41.2% increase over 2010. The Group had GAAP
net income applicable to common shareholders for full-year 2011 of $1.06
billion, or $20.63 per diluted share, which compares to $527.5 million
or $10.35 per diluted share in 2010.
|
|
Ross Stores
|
No
|
ROST
|
$35.90
|
$66.61
|
$66.74
$30.08
|
|
|
Read "Discount
Designer Stores," from Vol. 5, issue 6. Sales have been
growing steadily in this discount marketplace, especially given the "jobless
recovery." Profit margins are slim, however, 7%.
|
|
Shutterfly
|
No
|
SFLY
|
$30.51
|
$26.77
|
$66.70
$21.34
|
|
|
Read "Diamonds
or Scrapbooking," from the November 1, 2010 ezine,
Vol. 7, issue 11.
Shutterfly has made
huge fans of its customers and may even purchase Eastman Kodak's customers,
however the Facebook acquisition of Instagram puts Shutterfly's future
into question. There is no doubt that Facebook has a corner on the marketplace
of photo sharing... When they monetize that, every other game in town is
in trouble...
Announced results
on 2.1.12. Net revenues for the year totaled $473.3 million, a 54% year-over-year
increase. GAAP net income was $14.0 million, compared to $17.1 million
in 2010.
CFO left on Feb.
24, 2012 to "pursue a personal passion with an early stage medical technology
company." He stayed on through yearend results, which lends credibility
to this story of the events.
On March 6, 2012,
SFLY expanded its photo book offering to cater to the "yearbook" school
crowd. According to Gretchen Sloan, Shutterfly's corporate communications
executive, "We believe it's a compelling solution for the more than 100,000
elementary schools in the U.S."
|
|
iShares
S&P North American Tech Semi-conductors
|
No
|
SOXX
|
$50.45
|
$50.98
|
$64.19
$44.17
|
--
|
|
Read
"LED
Lighting," from Vol. 7, issue 8 and 2010
Company of the Year from Vol. 7, issue 12.
Watch my 2.3.11 report on the LED marketplace on CNBC,
or by visiting my YouTube channel at YouTube.com/NataliePaceDOTCOM.
|
|
Sociedad
Minera y Quimica de Chile
|
No
|
SQM
|
$52.55
|
$53.09
|
$67.75
$46.00
|
--
|
|
This
is a great company that manufactures lithium for the electric car &
IT industry and potash for agriculture. Businesses include: Specialty
Plant Nutrition, Iodine and Lithium.
Read
the article, "Treasure
Hunting", in Vol. 5, issue 10 and the article "Life
Begins with Li (Lithium)," from Vol. 6, issue 4.
SQM
began paying a dividend in 2010. The annual dividend was US$0.72592 per
share, with US$0.30798 per share to be paid on May 11, 2011.
|
|
Tesla
|
No
|
TSLA
|
$32.60
|
$29.91
|
$39.95
$21.50
|
|
|
Read "Tesla.
The Best Car on the Road," "Will
Congress Kill the Electric Car (Again)?" and "Tesla
Trades on NASDAQ" from Vol. 8, issue 11, Vol. 8, issue
10 and Vol. 7, issue 7.
Jan. 17, 2012: Tesla
lost two key executives just a few months before the Model S debt. Peter
Rawlinson, Tesla's vice president and chief engineer, and Nick Sampson,
director of vehicle and chassis engineering, departed the automaker. In
an e-mail to Automotive News, Tesla spokesperson Ricardo Reyes
wrote that Rawlinson completed conceptual and design engineering work
on the Model S and "decided to step away to tend to personal matters in
the United Kingdom." He also wrote: "Nick Sampson is no longer with Tesla.
He had fully transitioned from any Model S activities by the time of his
departure." This has a bad smell to it... However, there is no denying
that the Tesla cars are impressive. Here's a Tesla
video to see a preview of Model X (Tesla's SUV) and Model
S (sedan).
Should you buy now?
Very volatile stock. The new sedan is scheduled to start delivery in July
of 2012. (Model X reservations are going on now, with full production
slated for 2014.) Production is at a former Toyota factory, which places
a lot of ducks in a row, however, ramping up for production is something
that can be wrought with delays and other unexpected kinks. Tesla has
a very strong board and management team and a great car in the Roadster.
Advance reviews of the S sedan are gushing.
There has been
some recent press on the danger of having the car's batteries rendered
useless -- into bricks -- so, if you're a customer, be sure to understand
the risks of having a first generation all electric car.
4Q and FY results
were announced on Feb. 15, 2012. Revenues increased to $204 million for
the year, up from $117 million last year. Net loss was $254
million. Cash
= over $300 million. Long term debt: $268 million.
Toyota and Tesla
announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build electric RAV4s beginning
in 2012. The production line will be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric
powertrains will be shipped by Tesla from California.
Very exciting car
company. But very early stage, and may be in need of raising more and
more dough to stay on production track before the RAV4 and Model S hit
stores. (At the current cash burn rate, Tesla is out of money by February
2013.) Be careful.
|
|
Tiffany's
|
No
|
TIF
|
$63.94
|
$53.59
|
$84.49
$54.58
|
|
|
Read
"Are
Diamonds a Girl's Best Friend?" Vol. 9, issue 2.
|
|
Toyota Motor Company
|
No
|
TM
|
$71.84
|
$76.50
|
$93.74
$60.37
|
|
|
Read "Should
You Put the Brakes on Toyota?"
from Vol. 7, issue 2 and "One
Very Hot IPO" from Vol. 7, issue 9.
Toyota revised annual
earnings on 12.9.11. Car sales are expected to be down to 7.4 million.
And the net loss should be in the $80 billion yen range. There is much
speculation that Toyota will lose its title as #1 carmaker this year,
and may slip to #3, behind VW and GM, respectively. Toyota was hit very
hard by the Japanese Earthquake, floods in Thailand and other disasters.
Bear in mind that the official full-year report will not be issued until
May 11(ish) 2012, however, the sales data (and new rankings) should be
released in early January 2012.
Toyota and Tesla
announced on August 5, 2011 that they will build electric RAV4s beginning
in 2012. The production line will be in Woodstock, Ontario, and the electric
powertrains will be shipped by Tesla from California.
The auto industry
is vulnerable, and investors should be aware of the price and that 22
P/E is high for auto manufacturers.
Earnings are down
and profit margins are flat...
|
|
VMWare
|
No
|
VMW
|
$77.90
|
$91.02
|
$115.19
$74.69
|
|
|
Read
"Health
Care Reform" Vol. 7, issue 4.
1Q 2012 results from
April 18, 2012. Revenues for the first quarter were $1.06 billion, an
increase of 25.1% from the first quarter of 2011. Net income for the first
quarter was $191 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, compared to $126
million, or $0.29 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2011. Cash,
cash equivalents and short-term investments were $5.22 billion and unearned
revenue was $2.81 billion as of March 31, 2012.
"The quarter's solid
performance across our portfolio underscores the value that VMware is
providing customers as they work to transform their IT organizations,"
said Paul Maritz, chief executive officer, VMware, in the earnings statement.
"VMware is well positioned
for growth as the leader in virtualization and cloud infrastructure,"
said Mark Peek, chief financial officer, VMware. "Second quarter 2012
revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.10 and $1.12 billion. Annual
2012 revenues are expected to be in the range of $4.525 and $4.625 billion,
an increase of 20% to 23% from 2011, and annual license revenues are expected
to grow between 12% and 16%."
Executive changes
were announced on April 11, 2012. Most were promotions of people who had
helped grow the company from single digit million revenue to single digit
billion revenue.
|
|
Wells Fargo
|
No
|
WFC
|
$32.25
|
$32.45
|
$34.05
$22.58
|
|
|
RealtyTrac is predicting
that foreclosures in 2012 will exceed those in 2011. However, the Feds
keep giving the banks money and allowing banks to carry their losses off
the books. Which means that earnings reports are fairy tales. Don't believe
them. Banks are more troubled than you know. And, as we've already discovered,
they are too big to fail.
See "Wells
Fargo's Incredible Exploding Earnings" in Vol. 5, issue
9, and "Wells
Fargo's Great Depression," in Vol. 4, issue 12.
|
|
Westpac
|
No
|
WBK
|
$102.63
|
$103.23
|
$138.58
$92.34
|
--
|
|
Issued
it's annual results on November 15, 2011. Go to Westpac.com.au to access.
Australian banks fared far better than the rest of the world banks. So
did Canadian banks. P/E is good, but the debt is quite high, at 4.34 X
equity (on 5.15.11).
Net
profit of $6.9 billion, up 7% year over year.
Westpac's
Chief Executive Officer, Gail Kelly, said: "Today, Westpac is one of the
world's leading banks on almost any measure. We have emerged very safely
from the last four years of economic uncertainty with a set of capabilities
that distinguish us from our peers and as a much stronger company for
the longer term."
|
|
Wynn Resorts
|
No
|
WYNN
|
$147.98
|
$99.53
|
$172.58
$101.02
|
|
|
Check out the article,
"(No)
Viva Las Vegas"
in Vol. 5,
issue 10.
Steve Wynn is a great
marketer and capital raiser and the Wynn Hotel is gorgeous. However, Vegas
is one of the worst places for real estate in the U.S. and the city has
taken a huge hit as a convention center as well. Be very careful here.
The Hangover sparked a Vegas renaissance in 2010. The Wynn pool
scene is hot. Buying a vulnerable company with a high price to earnings
ratio is not.
Increased cash flow
has improved Wynn's debt rating, but it is still below investment grade.
On March 5, 2012,
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its 'BBB-' issue-level
rating to Las Vegas-based casino operator Wynn Resorts Ltd.'s proposed
$900 million first mortgage notes due 2022. In addition, S&P assigned
the notes a recovery rating of '2', indicating their expectation for substantial
(70% to 90%) recovery for noteholders in the event of a payment default.
Wynne is borrowing from Peter to pay Paul with this issuance. There was
a due date of 2013 for repay that will be canceled with this issuance
and only $100 million will be due on 2015, according to the S&P press
release.
|
|
Zynga
|
No
|
ZNGA
|
$9.45
|
$5.56
|
$14.55
$7.45
|
|
|
Read
"Zynga"
Vol. 9, issue 1.
|
Cooling
Off Stocks List (may be Poised for a Decline in Share Price).
Note: The companies
listed in bold have recently been added to this cooling off list and/or may
be currently poised for a decline in value. Investors who have them in their
portfolio should read the recent news and consider whether it is time to sell
and take profits, dump losses, short the position and/or simply weather the
storms, while keeping the company in their long-term portfolio. At any rate,
always consult your certified financial partner before making adjustments to
your portfolio. (Again, note that the stocks on this chart are expected to go
DOWN in price.)
ALERT: We are in an
election year. The markets have been volatile, and GDP growth is expected to
pick up in the coming quarters. So, now may not be the best time to initiate
a short position. The stocks on the list below are here simply to keep you from
buying them high, and to warn you to take your profits, if you've got them.
Highlighted
Companies (Cooling Off List):
Amazon
(AMZN)
DELETIONS:
None
|
Company
|
NP owns?
|
Symbol
|
Price when added
to Cooling Off List
|
Price
6.15.12
|
52-week High
52-week Low
|
Gains/Loss
|
|
Amazon
|
No
|
AMZN
|
$217.64
|
$218.35
|
$246.71
$166.97
|
Flat
|
|
Hot
company. Buy at a good price. P/E ratio is very high, at 180 on June 6,
2012.
|
|
AOL
|
No
|
AOL
|
$27.40
|
$25.99
|
$29.45
$10.06
|
-5%
|
|
Read "AOL"
from Vol. 6, issue 12 and "Is
GroupOn the Next Google?"
from Vol. 8, issue 7.
AOL owns Huffington
Post, Moviefone, Mapquest, among other popular destinations. Launched
Editions on Aug. 2 for iPad -- the magazine that customizes reading experiences
for each user.
Per ComScore Net
Ratings (2.12 data), AOL is the 5th most trafficked "web
parent companies" in the United States, right behind Facebook, Microsoft,
Yahoo and Google. Sales for AOL is $2.20 billion annually, but there is
plenty of room for this company to come closer to Yahoo's $5 billion in
annual revenue and take a bite out of Google's $40 billion.
High P/E as we head
into the seasonally weak summer season. Just looking for a better buy-in
point.
|
|
LinkedIn
|
No
|
LNKD
|
$110.36
|
$102.01
|
$122.70
$45.00
|
-8%
|
|
Read my article,
"Should
You Link In?" from the June 1, 2011 ezine, Vol. 8, issue.
6. 1Q 2012 results announced on May 3, 2012.
|
|
News Corp.
|
No
|
NWSA
|
$16.42
$20.63
(5.11.12)
|
$20.07
|
$20.63
$13.38
|
+22% &
-3%
|
|
Read my article,
"Murdoch's
Humble Pie," from the August 1, 2011 ezine, Vol.
8, issue. 8. The News Corp. scandal in the UK is still far more active
than American investors realize.
James Mudoch resigned
from BSkyB as chairman on 4.4.12 (although he still remains on the board).
Investors have called for James resignation from the News Corp. board.
To date, the Murdoch family have used their weighted voting rights to
keep James on the boards of News Corp and BSkyB.
In the statement
released by Rupert Murdoch and Chase Carey, it appears that James has
a future at News Corp., although his role there might be more tenuous
than anyone is officially letting on, judging by the ambiguous language
used even by his father...
"We are grateful
for James Murdoch's successful leadership of BSkyB. He has played a major
role in propelling the company into the market-leading position it enjoys
today – and in the process has been instrumental in creating substantial
value for News Corporation shareholders. We look forward to BSkyB's continued
growth under the leadership of Nicholas Ferguson and Jeremy Darroch and
to James' continued substantial contributions at News Corporation."
There has been widespread
speculation that James Murdoch resigned in anticipation of a critical
report from the British Parliament's House of Commons select committee,
which is expected to be released any day now. There is very little coverage
of this in the U.S., though the report will undoubtedly affect News Corp.,
so search on the BBC website for the most complete coverage.
|
|
Rochester Municipals
Bond Fund
|
No
|
RMUNX
|
$14.86
$16.02
(10.1.11)
|
$16.78
|
$16.91
$14.49
|
+13% &
+5%
|
|
Read "Bond
Beautification Project" from Vol. 7, issue 10
and "Bonds,
Bond Funds and T-Bills: The Next Disaster," from Vol.
7, issue 9.
|
|
Sears Holding Company
|
No
|
SHLD
|
$30.80
$80.48
(3.12.12)
|
$51.08
|
$87.69
$28.89
|
+35% &
-37%
|
|
Read my article,
"Discount
Designer Stores," from the June 1, 2008 ezine, Vol. 5,
issue. 6. Sears is more of a hedge fund than a retail store.
|
|
Taubman Centers
|
No
|
TCO
|
$24.74
$61.32
(7.15.11)
|
$73.10
|
$80.69
$21.85
|
+192% &
+19%
|
|
Read the article,
"Global
Recession," from Vol. 6, issue 6 in June 2009.
Mall owners are hit
with the quadruple whammy of sluggish retail sales, high turnover, lower
occupancy and declining real estate value.
|
|
Time Warner
|
No
|
TWX
|
$24.44
|
$36.42
|
$38.62
$27.62
|
+50%
|
|
Read the article,
"Hulu
Your Heroes," from Vol. 6, issue 5 in May 2009.
|
|
PowerShares Treasury
Bill Index Fund
|
No
|
PLW
|
$30.02
$32.78
(10.1.11)
|
$33.40
|
$33.01
$27.09
|
+11% &
flat
|
|
Read "Don't
Get Fooled Again," from Vol. 7, issue 8. When interest
rates rise, bonds and bond funds fall in value. Time to find another "safe"
place for your assets. Read "The
High Price of Questionable Credit" from the September 2011 ezine,
Vol. 8, issue 9.
|
|
Zale Corp.
|
No
|
ZLC
|
$2.92
$3.37
(4.1.12)
|
$2.40
|
$6.90
$2.06
|
-17% &
-29%
|
|
Read
"Are
Diamonds a Girl's Best Friend?" Vol. 9, issue 2.
|
Deleted in 2010-2011:
Deleted AMAT
on 8.1.10 with gains of 12.5% & 7% (put gains would be double or more).
8.30.10: Deleted FIG (-10% & -40%), MXWL (-37%), MDT (-4% & -24%), MSFT
(-20%) -- all for gains. Deleted MGM 9.13.10 for 61% gains. Deleted Tesla on
1.14.11 with 20% & 24% gains. 3.1.11: Deleted Shutterfly with12% gain (cooling
off gain) and Sears with mixed results (up & down). 3.11.11: Deleted PIMCO
Muni Bond fund with flat performance. Deleted Amazon, American Express, Capital
One, Ford, Kulicke & Soffa, Netflix, Taubman, VMWare with mixed results.
Deleted Apple, Baidu, Berkshire Hathaway, Intel, Transocean & Wells Fargo
with losses. 4.28.11: ABAT with 51% gains. 6.13.11: LinkedIn was deleted with
25% gains, Orocobre with 18% gains, Shutterfly with 20% gains, Priceline with
mixed performance and eBay was deleted with flat performance. 6.23.11: Yahoo
was deleted with 12% gains. 8.15.11: LinkedIn with 10-11% gains, Netflix with
6-18% gains, Priceline with 6% gains, Tesla with 7% gains. Wynn Resorts was
deleted with mixed results. 8.31.11: Toyota was deleted with gains of 14%.
Deleted 2008-2009:
19 gainers and no
losers.
Recently Deleted:
None
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
(PLEASE READ):
Please
note: NataliePace.com does not act or operate like a broker. We report on financial
news, and are one of the most trusted independently owned and operated financial
news corporations in the U.S. This article is intended to educate and inform
individual investors, and, thus, to give investors a competitive edge in their
personal decision-making. The publicly traded companies mentioned in this article
are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research
and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or
selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies.
Investors should
NOT be using the Hot News on Cool Stocks list or the Cooling Off list to trade
their nest eggs. Your retirement plan should reflect a long, safe strategy,
which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who
is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading"
portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy,
and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be
greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com
does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment
as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or
sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies
mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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