Natalie Pace. bestselling author of The Gratitude Game, The ABCs of Money & Put Your Money Where Your Heart is. Co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project.
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Tesla Vision vs. Waymo LiDAR vs. Air Taxis.

30/5/2025

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Waymo's Robotaxi.
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Tesla's Robotaxi.
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Archer Aviation's Air Taxi.


Tesla Vision vs. Waymo LiDAR vs. Air Taxis.
LiDAR (Waymo) vs. Tesla Vision. Which is safer? What about Uber and Lyft? How will these companies fare when robotaxis become de rigueur?
Will we all be flying around in our personal rocket cars, making all of the above obsolete?
Email [email protected] if you would like for us to send you updated Magnificent 7* and Uber stock report cards.

* Magnificent 7: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla
 
Tesla stock has been rallying of late, partly due to Elon Musk leaving Washington D.C. and returning to Tesla, but also because of reports (by Elon Musk) that the Tesla Model Y has been testing self-driving in Austin, Texas. Tesla share price is up 43.8.% from the low it hit on April 17, 2025, of $241/share. At $346.46/share it’s also still down -29.1% from the high of $488.54/share set on December 13, 2024.
 

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While everyone is focusing on politics, FSD*, robotaxis and robots, Tesla faces price wars and fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers, apart from any impact from tariffs, as I indicated in my blog last month (click on Tesla to access). Chinese competition is having a very negative impact on Tesla. In the 1st quarter of 2025, revenue growth was down -9.23% from the same quarter in 2024. 2024‘s net income was cut in half, down to $7.13 billion, compared to $15 billion in 2023. However, at the same time the Tesla model Y is still the top-selling SUV in the world (of any kind, not just electric vehicles).
 
*Full Self-Driving

However, Chinese competition is not the only headwind for Tesla. A lot is riding on the potential market for Tesla’s FSD and robotaxis. With the price earnings ratio of 197, good news is baked in years down the road. So, if there is any near-term snafu, or God forbid more fatal crashes, the volatility that we have seen in Tesla’s share price could come back to haunt investors.
 
Waymo Vs. Tesla’s Robotaxi
The main competitor for robotaxis is Waymo. (Click if you’d like to see my personal ride in Waymo on December 1, 2024, which I posted on my Instagram profile. For research purposes, I take Waymo frequently in Santa Monica, California.) Waymos are being vandalized and people who live close to the charging station are constantly filing complaints with their city council, seeking to shut it down. As with many disruptive products, robotaxis are not very popular or widespread, even though, so far, at least the Waymos seem to be safe.
 
So, imagine the problems that ensue when a vehicle is involved in any sort of horrible accident. After General Motor’s Cruise robotaxi seriously injured a pedestrian on Oct. 2, 2023, the CEO was sacked and the entire project was scrapped.
 
And that leads me to the conversation about LiDAR, which is the basis of Waymo‘s technology versus Tesla Vision. Fortunately, you won’t have to read a series of quotes from experts. You can see it for yourself. Mark Rober, a former NASA engineer, did a 6-part test of Waymo versus Tesla self-driving technology to see which would score highest in a series of six challenges. I encourage you to watch the video starting at about the eighth minute.

So, which car was Wile E. Coyote and which was the Roadrunner?

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Rober’s entertaining video clearly shows LiDAR’s superior performance. However, it’s not just a test; the problematic performance has been also proven in the real world. It has been reported by Forbes that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has confirmed 44 fatalities and hundreds of non-fatal crashes involving Tesla’s FSD software. In Tesla’s 1Q 2025 Vehicle Safety Report, the company writes, “Accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, like reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.” Tesla points out that their self-driving application is still far better than the U.S. average. Click to see the Safety Report where Tesla’s autopilot is calculated at over seven million miles driven before an accident, whereas the national average is under one million.

Cost vs. Safety
Two of the advantages that Tesla Vision has over LiDAR (at this point) are cost and longitudinal data. According to Tesla, more than nine billion miles have been driven with Autopilot engaged. Of course, as LiDAR costs come down, that could be less of an issue. However, that “advantage” factors in only the simple math. One non-fatal pedestrian incident wiped out the entire General Motors Cruise project. While we don’t hear a lot about the FSD problems for Tesla, and they may be downplayed, delayed or buried as long as the Tesla CEO is tight with the Administration, it’s pretty hard to imagine that Tesla’s robotaxis are going to save the day using technology that has proven to be quite problematic to date.
 
Uber, Lyft, Robotaxis and Air Taxis
Rideshare drivers are likely to be up in arms about the idea of people using taxi services that don’t require a driver. There are a lot of people relying upon that rideshare income. Despite the threat, Uber and Lyft managed to show increased revenue year over year in the most recent quarter. However, robotaxis are only being rolled out in a few markets at this time. San Francisco, Santa Monica, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas are some of the few places Waymos can be taken.
 
Meanwhile, anyone who has ever tried to get to the theater in Manhattan or from the west side to downtown in Los Angeles, or practically any city during rush-hour, are keenly aware of the frustrations of gridlock. We are seeing positive signs that air taxis are moving forward, with a potential for certification from the FAA over the next year for Joby and Archer Aviation. (Click to read my blog on Air Taxis.)
 
The forward momentum of air taxis is not enough to disrupt taxis (and helicopters) today. However, will they be more mainstream by the L.A. Olympics? (Archer Aviation is the official air taxi of the 2028 L.A. Olympics,)
 
Robotaxis aren’t completely disrupting Uber and Lyft yet, largely due to all of the testing that must be done to ensure safety. However, investors are valuing Tesla at $1.13 trillion when the company only made $7 billion last year and reported less revenue in the most recent quarter. The very lofty valuation (outlandish?) is the key source of the volatility in Tesla’s share price. Should Tesla be worth more than two times the value of Toyota, GM and Ford combined?

Bottom Line
It’s hard to bet against a CEO who has had such amazing feats at Tesla and SpaceX. Elon Musk is known for making outlandish proclamations and then finding a way to actually achieve them. Being the richest man in the world, worth a reported $432 billion, according to Forbes, certainly helps his aspirations. Disrupting the ICE* industry was no small feat. However, for Main Street investors who are holding onto shares hoping that they will go higher because everyone will own an Optimus in the future or will be receiving a 2nd income from the rides their Tesla offers autonomously, it is important to separate the hyperbole from reality.
 
*Internal Combustion Engine

Tesla is overpriced. It’s priced for what the potential could be with robotaxis and Optimus years down the road. Both products could eventually come to market in a big way, assuming there haven’t been fatalities that completely scrap the autonomous taxi project. However, between now and those cyber halcyon days, there is likely to be a great deal of share price volatility, from the ebb and flow of safety checks and rollouts, fierce worldwide competition and from any economic slowdown. (The auto industry struggles when the economy slows down.) We’ve seen this in spades over the past months and years. Tesla has zigzagged between a high of $488 and a low of $167 over the past five years. In 2022, the stock sank by -67%. In April 2025, it was worth half of what it was in December 2024. That can be positive if you’re on the right side of the trade, as whales tend to be, and quite a stomachache if you’re attempting to buy and hold or purchasing high on headlines. If you’ve made a boatload investing in Tesla, now might be a great time to capture gains and consider dollar-cost averaging into a Magnificent 7 hot slice that has some Tesla in it, such as the iShares Self-Driving EV & Technology fund (symbol: IDRV).


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Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register.
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Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​



Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
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Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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The Jetsons Age: Flying Cars Have Finally Arrived.

26/5/2025

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On May 15, 2025, it was announced that Archer Aviation was Selected as the Official Air Taxi Provider of the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Team USA in Exclusive Deal.


The Jetsons Age: Flying Cars Have Finally Arrived.
2025 Featured Investment.
Email [email protected] if you’d like an Airline Stock Report Card that Features eVTOLs.
​Updated 5.27.2025 at 1:22 p.m.

 
Mark Rowland, an executive whom I respect, put eVTOLs* on my radar a few years ago. It was too early in the game for me to feature. Many of the planes hadn’t been tested. Though some companies were already publicly traded, more flight miles needed to be logged before they could even hope to start FAA certification. Cash negative operations would take down some of the companies, and the potential for a crash put early investors at risk. Lilium, a German eVTOL* company, went bust twice (Oct. 24, 2024, and Feb. 2025). One of Joby’s aircraft crashed on Feb. 16, 2022. Joby’s share price is still down -48% from its 2021 highs. (
Quantum computing is another industry with massive potential that is just too early to invest in yet. Click to read that blog.)

*electric vertical takeoff and landing
 
However, when I saw an ad on television for Archer Aviation’s partnership with United Airlines to offer air taxis to local airports that could cut a gridlock commute from an hour to 10 minutes, with the support of the Port Authority New York New Jersey in exploring the possibilities, my heart started racing toward the Buy button. Thankfully, I took some of my own medicine and forced the excitement through a sober study of the fundamentals.
 
After a week of diving down the rabbit hole, I’m more excited than ever about the potential of this nascent disruptive technology and product. So, which company is positioned best and is now the time to buy? Is Joby back on track?
 
Here are the topics we will cover in this blog
 
Disrupting the Helicopter Market
Quiet, Affordable and Safe
Traffic Congestion Creates High Demand
Exciting Partnerships
Production Capacity
Business Friendly Administration
Strong Boards
TIA Certification in 2025? 2026?
Investment of the Year?
 
And here is more information on each topic
 
Disrupting the Helicopter Market
eVTOLs are a creative destruction of helicopters. Some helicopter companies are doing everything they can to invest in this new form of transportation. eVTOLs have many advantages over helicopters. They are quieter, less expensive to operate, cleaner and (potentially) safer. The existing helicopter infrastructure offers the potential for eVTOLs to sidestep a key and expensive part of the launch. Rather than inventing the routes and building the helipads, they should be able to slip into existing flight paths and landing apparatus. Once air taxis get FAA approval, scaling should be much faster than if everything had to be built from scratch.
 
eVTOLs can take the place of helicopters in the sky for a variety of operations, including delivering people safely and quickly over gridlock traffic, law enforcement, news reporting, defense applications and emergencies.
 
Quiet, Affordable and Safe
We’ve been dreaming of flying cars since the Jetsons. So, what took so long? Battery breakthroughs have made this 63-year old vision finally viable. This is the first major commercial aviation breakthrough in over half a century (not counting the extraordinary achievements of SpaceX).
 
Safety is also (potentially) improved. There are built in redundancies. The wings offer glide potential, which can help ensure a safer landing in the event of equipment failure than the autorotation feature of helicopters. Electric vehicles have a small number of parts, reducing the amount of potentially wonky widgets, while also lowering maintenance costs. I encourage you to watch the videos of the Joby and Archer test flights. FYI: Joby’s eVTOL has six propellers, while Archer’s has 12.

Traffic Congestion Creates High Demand
Gridlock and air pollution plague cities around the world. There is high demand for more sustainable urban transportation solutions. Air taxis could potentially reduce an hour-ride to the airport to only 10 minutes. The cost of taking an air taxi, according to Adam Goldstein, the founder, CEO and chairman of Archer Aviation, could be the same as a black car ride share initially. While this doesn’t solve all the transit challenges that cities face, it could certainly make it easier for people to get to the airport on time. The Los Angeles Olympic Committee is betting on air taxis to get athletes and VIPs to their competitions in 2028.  
 
Exciting Partnerships
On May 15, 2025, Archer Aviation announced that they will be the official air taxi service for the LA Olympics in 2028. Archer has also partnered with United Airlines, Palantir, Stellantis, Abu Dhabi Aviation and Anduril. Joby has top-notch partners as well, including the U.S. Department of Defense, Virgin Atlantic, Toyota, Dubai and Uber.

Both companies are focusing on multiple channels of monetization, including defense, rescue, airlines, and private customers through apps. (Joby has a partnership with Uber, having purchased Uber Elevate.) Automation is also in the works. Joby purchased XWing, while Archer’s Anduril partnership is focusing on autonomous VTOL hybrid aircraft for the Department of the Defense. Archer’s partnership with Palantir is expected to yield cost savings and efficiency in everything from manufacturing, to route planning and building the aviation infrastructure of the future.
 
Boeing partnered with Disney to produce cargo air vehicles that look a lot like Star Wars spacecraft. Boeing’s Wisk Aero is focused exclusively on autonomous passenger-carrying air taxis. Though this eVTOL won’t be in the first tier of TIA certification, Wisk is betting that their focus on automated air taxis is better for the long term.

Production capacity
Archer Aviation reports that their Georgia production facility will be able to manufacture up to 650 aircraft per year, as will the California site. Joby’s Ohio production capacity could be 500, while the California manufacturing facility could produce 25 per year. In the 1Q 2025 earnings calls, a repeated theme of the C-Suite was reminding everyone of the delicate balancing act between TIA certification and rolling out production. The companies want to be prepared to scale, once everything has proven to work without further modifications. Archer is planning to produce 2 planes per month by the end of this year, while Joby is planning on 1 per month.
 
Archer Aviation currently has six planes in testing, while Joby has five. Both Archer and Joby are putting pilots in their planes this year, with a goal of achieving TIA certification from the FAA on a fast-track basis (while ensuring safety).
 
Business Friendly Administration
As might be expected, the CEOs of Archer and Joby have been active in Washington DC, meeting with the leaders of the FAA, Congress and the Transportation and Defense Departments. Archer Aviation’s CEO Adam Goldstein met with Elon Musk in January of this year at Davos during the World Economic Forum. Goldstein credits Musk for pushing forward the battery technology to the point where flying cars are even possible. Goldstein also reports that the White House wants to remove unnecessary red tape and to encourage innovation and defense dominance.



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Archer CEO Adam Goldstein in Washington D.C. on May 23, 2025, from his LinkedIn profile.

Strong Boards
The boards of Joby and Archer are strong. Joby’s chairman is the founder and former CEO of Pinterest. The Joby board includes a former FAA administrator and Toyota N.A.’s president and CEO. The former CTO of NASA, the former president and CEO of Mitsubishi N.A., the former chairman and CEO of United Airlines and Stellantis’ current head of business development are all on Archer’s board.  
 
TIA Certification in 2025? 2026?
Both companies have put pilots into their planes and our hoping to win TIA certification with the FAA this year (or within 12 months). In the 1Q 2025 earnings call, Archer’s CTO said, “As we transition into piloted flight and prepare for formal TIA testing, expect a marked acceleration of compliance validation.” A TIA certification would certainly excite investors.
 
Investment of the Year?
I got into this business by correctly predicting the success of cloud computing, tasers (and now police cameras) and Google search back in 2001, 2003 and 2004, respectively. I haven’t been as excited about a new industry since that time. Air taxis could be the creative disruptive traffic solution that we’ve all been looking for – displacing very outdated, noisy, polluting and expensive technology, the helicopter. Having said that, 2025 is a year when stock prices are very elevated and the economy is slowing down, similar to where things were in 2000 before the Dot Com crash. I stayed on the sidelines of the cloud computing company I loved, watching the price fall from $12 to $1/share before investing in 2001 and almost tripling my investment. Both LoudCloud and Google had to survive two years of economic hell between 2001 and 2003 before soaring to the heights that they achieved. (Google’s IPO was on August 19, 2004.)
 
The reason I put a question mark instead of just proclaiming Archer Aviation as the Investment of the Year is that volatility has been a theme in 2025 and will likely continue to do so. While Archer has been navigating its pathway to commercialization like a pro (with such an experienced board!) and has a billion dollars of cash on hand, even great companies with enormous potential can be drug down in a stock market rout. Between January and April of this year, Nvidia (Wall Street’s darling) lost -38%, dropping to $94.31/share on April 4, 2025, from $153/share on Jan. 6, 2025.
 
FAA TIA certification could spark a buying frenzy. Delays or bad news could cause the share price to plunge. A lot can happen between now and the time that customers are able to hail their air taxis! Having a strategy for capturing gains and buying low on any of these inciting events could keep us on the right side of the trade until the industry is ready for mass deployment to the world’s most congested cities. (Will major cities start air taxi service to their airports immediately after the TIA certification?) Trading on headlines is often a very expensive lesson, no matter how much our heart races on the news.
 
Bottom Line
Archer Aviation could be a Magnificent 7 company in the making, although it is certainly early stage. A lot can happen that would be the wind in their wings, while other unforeseen events (like a crash) could be a death knell. I featured Tesla in the 1st edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (before it was publicly traded). That book was written in 2007. Tesla was cash negative until 2020. That was when the company stock started roaring to its current market cap of $1.13 trillion. It nearly went out of business at one point. Tesla faced fierce competition from the existing auto industry then, and price wars from Chinese competitors today. (Click to learn more.) So, the pathway to profitability and widespread acceptance of any breakthrough technology is never easy or guaranteed, though Elon Musk has been noted at saying that all mobility, save spacecrafts, will go electric. 

Remember: good news tends to give stocks a bump, even in a down year. As I mentioned, I almost tripled my money on LoudCloud in 2001 – after 911. Bad news, including general market plunges, tend to drag down share prices. Flying cars are perhaps the most exciting creative destruction I’ve seen in decades. However, buy low, sell high is an industry aphorism for a reason. Buying before the FAA certification could be a good start, but we might have to endure some downturns between the certification and liftoff. If eVTOLs move forward quickly, we’ll be glad we purchased our favorite company well before the 2028 Olympics start making headlines. I repeat myself: it’s a great idea to have a strategy of capturing gains on good news and buying more on bad. If you’re not willing to babysit, then holding any individual stock is not right for you. (Put your companies on a stock app on your phone and set news and price alerts.) Most Main Street investors would be better off sticking to an age-appropriate, properly diversified strategy that is rebalanced 1-3 times a year than gambling on an early stage eVTOL company.
 
The global helicopter market is currently valued at $35 billion, with expectations to grow to $55 billion in 2032. eVTOLs could make it more popular and affordable to choose air taxis than helicopters, expanding this marketplace. (Helicopters are not perceived to be safe and can be expensive.) While there are still a lot of ifs and whens in the equation on this young, fastmoving industry, hitching our wagon to a star of the sky could be a great way to help our portfolio shine.
 
I encourage you to follow me on social media, in the event the stock shoots the moon and I have more color to add. I also plan on hosting a videoconference on this topic. Email [email protected] if you’d like to join us live. Watch it back at https://www.youtube.com/c/nataliepace.
 
https://www.instagram.com/nataliewynnepace/
https://www.facebook.com/TheABCsofMoney
https://www.youtube.com/c/nataliepace
 
 
Full Disclosure:
There's nothing wrong with a Stock Shopping List and waiting for a dip to create a buying opportunity. I plan on placing my personal bet on Archer Aviation soon after publishing this blog (at the price that I feel is the most opportune), while saving some money in the kitty in case market volatility creates an even better buying opportunity (dollar cost averaging). 

​


Join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget and how to hedge in a volatile Debt World. The following Saturday on June 14, 2025, at our Real Estate Master Class. you'll discover the 10-point checklist for home buyers and sellers, as well as some overlooked areas of opportunity. If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Your friends and family can get the best price for the Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 when they register together. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 

​​
Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. 
​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.


Picture
Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register.
Picture
Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and eight private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 8 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 70% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!
Picture
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
​​​​
Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​

​



Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

Other Blogs of Interest
USA Downgraded. 
Is U.S. Reserve Currency Status Threatened?
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Top Dividend/Income Strategies for 2025. 
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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
​
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
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USA Downgraded. Is Reserve Currency Status Threatened?

18/5/2025

0 Comments

 
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USA Downgraded. Is Reserve Currency Status Threatened?
 
On Friday, May 16, 2025, after 5:00 pm ET (after Wall Street had left the office), Moody’s downgraded the US from Aaa to Aa1. According to Moody’s, the downgrade “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns. Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.”
 
Moody’s action wasn’t a surprise. The only real perplexity was, “Why did they take so long?” S&P Global downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+ on August 5, 2011; Fitch Ratings followed suit on August 1, 2023. With Moody’s downgrade, all 3 major rating agencies are in agreement about the U.S. sovereign credit – that it is very good, but budgets must be balanced and debt reined in.
 
You can bet that the hucksters will be out in force, urging everyone to hedge against the dollar becoming worthless by purchasing this or that talisman – typically gold or cryptocurrency. Please beware. The ruses today are very sophisticated and can include sham statements that show amazing gains.
 
Does an AA+ sovereign rating threaten the USA‘s global currency reserve status? Is this the beginning of the end? Which countries are still rated AAA? Email [email protected] if you’d like a more complete list of country ratings, including BRICS and Japan.

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Here are the topics we will cover in this blog.
 
What is required to be a global reserve currency? 
BRICS
The Euro 
Canadian and Australian dollars 
The Japanese Yen 
What does the downgrade mean for you? What kind of defensive or offensive wealth decision should you be considering? 
 
Let’s start off with a general overview of where the U.S. stands with regard to reserve currency status, then proceed with a dive into the pluses and minuses of the other currencies mentioned above, and end with actions we can take to protect and grow our wealth safely.
 
Global Reserve Currency
The U.S. is still by far the currency of choice of central banks. However, it has seen its dominance drop over the past two decades, from 71% of the global currency reserves in 2001 to 57.3% in the 3rd quarter of 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund. A lot of the decline had to do with the launch of the euro in 1999. What we have now is a basket of currencies. (See the chart below.)
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What does it take to be a global reserve currency? 
 
Liquidity
Safety
Trust
A Large, Strong, Diversified Economy
 
Central banks and governments are looking for the above four key factors when they decide which currencies to hold, and which to use when buying and selling products and services across their borders. The U.S. dollar is very liquid. It has a proven record of safety, which earned it the trust of governments and banks around the world. The U.S. economy is slowing down, however. While the tariffs are a moving target and stocks have rallied on the hope that the worst is over (not likely), there are still economists pegging the odds of a recession in 2025 at 35-50%. 
 
Before we buy into the bait of the dollar becoming worthless, there are a few considerations. The U.S. has a track record of inventing the products of tomorrow. America has, in the past, attracted the top talent from around the world. Sergey Brin, Google’s co-founder, was born in Moscow. Elon Musk hails from South Africa. California is the 4th largest economy in the world and is home to the world’s breakthrough technology and biotechnology products and innovation. The U.S. has a track record of paying its bills. “Never bet against America,” according to Warren Buffett.
 
So, what about other currencies? How do they measure up? Will the euro or BRICS surpass the U.S. dollar? We must really put each through the test of the four key factors to answer that question.
 
BRICS
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Take a closer look at that list. How many of these countries are on the top of your Bucket List? If so, great. If not, why? Is there a trust factor weighing on your decision to travel there? If you’re concerned about travel, shouldn’t you also be uneasy about money? Are you aware that three of the countries have a speculative (high risk) credit rating? (Brazil, Russia and South Africa.) Would someone want to take your BRICS bills in exchange for their product or service, or would they rather you paid in dollars, euros or pounds? In some parts of the world, the locals would prefer that you give them U.S. dollars.
 
When I visited India in 2018, it was difficult to pull out more than $75 a day in cash. The bank set limits, and even then would run out of money within a few hours of opening. Also, India has been notorious about restricting the movement of funds out of the country. If you look at the Index of Economic Freedom, four of the countries are all considered to be “mostly unfree,” while China is characterized as repressed. While these countries are trying to break the dominance of the dollar by trading BRICS amongst themselves, the currency didn’t jump on the stage with the same vigor that the euro did.
 
The Chinese yuan is having slightly better popularity, but it is still just 2% of the allocated foreign exchange reserves. China’s economy is large and growing. However, safety, trust and liquidity remain concerns.
 

The Euro 
The euro has stayed steady at about 20% of the global reserves since it launched in 1999. While Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands are rated AAA, there are others with much lower credit ratings, including Italy (BBB) and Greece (BBB-). Greek bonds had to be bailed out in 2011 and were at the heart of the MF Global bankruptcy. Many investors received less than a third of their principal in the deal. Central bankers have a memory of this and are aware that the euro includes a mixed bag of country risk. This is likely why the euro hasn’t gained more market share.



Canadian and Australian dollars 
Along with the Chinese yuan, Canadian and Australian dollars have grown to represent about 9% of the world’s currency reserve. Canada and Australia are very free. Australia has an added benefit of being AAA rated, with much lower debt than most developed world countries. However, both economies are experiencing slow growth. Additionally, Australia’s GDP is $1.8 trillion. Canada’s is $2.3 trillion. Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP was $29.35 trillion last year.
 
The Japanese Yen 
Japan’s GDP is also small compared to the U.S. and China, at $4.02 trillion. According to a press release issued by California Governor Gavin Newsom on April 23, 2025, California surpassed Japan’s GDP to become the 4th largest GDP in the world, at $4.1 trillion. The strength of California’s innovation (and universities), particularly in technology and biotech, contribute to the strength and growth of the U.S. economy. The Magnificent 7 companies – five of which were launched in California – led the gains on Wall Street in 2023 and 2024, doubling in value in 2023.
 
Important strategies for wealth protection and growth in 2025 and beyond
It’s important to notice trends. Clearly, the U.S. has been downgraded and has lost market share with regard to the global currency reserves. How does this affect our wealth plan – including the value of our home and retirement plan? Incidentally, investors around the world own U.S. equities and fixed income products. Whether you are living in the US or not, when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. So, the strategies outlined below apply whether you’re in Europe, Canada, Mexico, one of the BRICS nations, South America, or in the United States.
 
Cash Liquidity vs. Hard Assets
Cash vs. Crypto 
Paper Losses vs. Capital Preservation 
Real Estate
Gold
 
And here is more information on each topic
 
Cash Liquidity vs. Hard Assets
Hard assets, particularly hard assets that produce income or save money in our budgets, are a way to retain wealth – particularly if they are located in a country with an outstanding history of property rights, such as the United States. In a recession, the actual value of the holding could go down. The value of single-family homes dropped -25% in the U.S. during the Great Recession – much more in the areas that had soared to speculative heights in 2006. However, if the benefit of the income (or the money we save on housing or other bills) remains the same, the hard asset can be very beneficial during challenging times.
 
There are quite a few things to get right in the equation, particularly at a time when single-family homes are at an all-time high and unaffordable, while malls and office buildings are experiencing fire sales or being given back to the bank. However, even if you believe that you are locked out of the housing market, there are creative solutions that can kick the door open.
 
This is one of the reasons why I’m hosting our annual Real Estate Masterclass on June 14, 2025. Housing affordability is a crisis, particularly for Millennials and Gen Z. On the other hand, a lot of Boomers are stuck in a homestead that may no longer be appropriate for them. Potential sellers are hanging onto their homes because of the low interest rate on their mortgage – understanding that with mortgage rates double what they were five years ago, they would spend a lot more for less. The solution can be found in the family (or a chosen family) coming together to make solid decisions that benefit everybody involved. Boomers are holding most of the wealth in the U.S., and many have relatives (heirs) in the younger generation. It’s time to come together for the benefit of multiple generations.
 
It's important to remember that being property rich and cash poor makes us very vulnerable. There are always property taxes, maintenance costs, insurance premiums, legal fees and more that seem to be ever increasing. If we don’t have the liquidity to cover these expenses, we put ownership of the property at risk. So, liquidity is very important as well.
 
Cash vs. Crypto 
The U.S. dollar has declined against other currencies. However, it’s nothing compared to the plunges that we see in cryptocurrency. In Crypto Winters, we’ve seen Bitcoin dive from $69,000 (Nov. 9, 2021) to a low of $15,000 a year later.
 
The truth about cryptocurrency is that it’s not used as a currency. It’s a trading platform where Main Street hopefuls try their hand against whales and hedge funds to get rich quickly. You can’t have a currency that is worth $69,000 one week and only 20% of that a year later. Imagine if your dollar was only worth 20 cents.
 
Volatility takes crypto out of the realm of a constant currency, which is why we aren’t seeing the digital asset showing up in central banks and government reserves. However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t have cryptocurrency in our portfolio – provided we have a plan to ride the waves to the right side of the trade. For that reason, we put crypto as one (or more) of our hot slice investments on the at-risk side of our portfolio, rather than the safe side (where cash products that preserve our wealth are). In a more normal world where debt isn’t astronomical, bonds could provide a role in preserving our wealth with reduced risk. However, we’re seeing a lot of conservative investors with significant paper losses in their portfolio that are a lot more problematic than they are being told.
 
Paper Losses vs. Capital Preservation 
The bonds that are suffering from paper losses are the least creditworthy with the longest duration. At our Financial Freedom Retreats, we have been warning retreat attendees about credit and duration risk since the Great Recession. The people who are abiding by our strategies are not suffering from paper losses. It’s easy to earn 4.0-4.4% interest with low risk, if you know where to look. (We spend one full day educating our attendees on safe investments at the Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] to learn more now.)
 
I hear people trying to justify the strategy that has put them in a bind, saying, “Well, as long as I don’t sell it, I won’t realize the paper losses.” Many of the worst losses are concentrated in issuances of low credit quality (risk of illiquidity, losses and restructuring) and long duration (will you still be alive in 55 or 85 years?). I’ve seen durations as long as 100 years! The minute you own the junk bond, not only does it lose value with an increased risk that the losses are permanent, the liquidity dries up.
 
See the liquidity chart below, and you’ll notice that this also holds true for heavily indebted, fixed income equities, many of which are concentrated in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When we have a loss on paper, our FICO score plunges, as does our wealth.
 
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So why are we being put into these risky long-term commitments? Often those are the ones that pay the highest commission to a broker-salesman. It may also be that the investment bank owned by the same conglomerate as the brokerage has taken on a new client and needs to sell the bonds. Additionally, we are seeing private equity deals that are very risky where qualified investors are committed without truly understanding that their money may be invested in junk bonds, and that they may not have access to their money for years. (Annuities take up to 9% of your investment the minute you purchase them.) The minute we purchase many of these “fixed income” investments, it loses value and becomes illiquid. 
 
Capital preservation is important for so many things (in other words, no paper losses). It keeps our wealth intact. A higher FICO score = borrowing at lower interest rates. Liquidity means the funds are available for more attractive investments. Most people don’t buy low because they can’t. If we lose too much, or if we’re hanging on for years hoping we’ll get all our money back at the term end, then we just don’t have the resources to buy low. In the worst-case scenario, we might need it to stay afloat and pay some bills – which means we’ll have to sell and realize the loss.
 
Real Estate
Homeowners are worth 10 to 40 times as much as renters – 10 times as much according to the mean, and 40 times as much according to the median. Real estate is a great way to preserve family wealth, provided it is paid off or pays for itself in a steady, secure way. However, prices are at an all-time high. People under 44 are having trouble qualifying for a loan.
 
Buying high is rarely a good idea. However, there are opportunities, as I mentioned above, for families to come together with a plan that works well for everyone. I outline a 10-point checklist for homebuyers and sellers in The ABCs of Money 6th edition. There is an entire section on real estate that includes case studies that you will be informed and inspired by. I also strongly encourage you to join us at our Real Estate Masterclass on June 14, 2025. A small investment of time and money could pay off for life. Email [email protected] to learn more and register now.

Gold
Gold is pretty liquid, as you can see in the liquidity chart above. However, it suffers from the same kind of volatility that cryptocurrency does. I hear people say that gold never loses its value, but that is simply untrue. From the highs in 2011, this precious metal lost 40% of its value and didn’t recover until the pandemic (2020). If you purchased gold at the top in 1980 it took a quarter of a century to crawl back to even.
 
If we’re in the Apocalypse, you could probably trade food or Wi-Fi more easily than a gold nugget. Like crypto, we consider goal to be a hot slice of our at-risk investments. That way when it shoots the moon, you can capture gains. And when it sinks, you can buy more at a lower price. Email [email protected] if you’d like to see which countries hold the most gold. You can also learn more in my blog, “Gold and Crypto IRAs.”



Bottom Line
The world is trending to greater nationalism, and BRICS is proof of that. However, the BRICS nations will have to become more trustworthy and economically free to give the U.S. dollar a true run for the money on the global reserve currency stage. Having said that, it is clear that with the rising debt, persistent budget deficits and a potential struggle with stagflation and painful interest payments on the high debt, central banks and governments are hedging their U.S. dollar bets with a basket of currencies. Selling the farm and investing it in a speculative currency that will replace the dollar could be an expensive lesson. Finding a way to keep money and hard assets in the family, including the farm and real estate, could be a great way to retain wealth.
 
Today’s volatile, more nationalized world requires much more than just a simple analysis of whether you should buy or sell more stocks and bonds. A complete examination of exactly what you own, what role it serves in your wealth plan, how you plan to keep that wealth and how much risk you are really taking on is key. Now. Who has control of your dough and for how long matters more than ever.


 
Join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget and how to hedge in a volatile Debt World. The following Saturday on June 14, 2025, at our Real Estate Master Class. you'll discover the 10-point checklist for home buyers and sellers, as well as some overlooked areas of opportunity. If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Your friends and family can get the best price for the Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 when they register by May 15, 2025. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 

​​
Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. 
​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.

​ 
Picture
Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Early Bird pricing ends May 15, 2025.
Picture
Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and eight private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 8 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 70% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!
Picture
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
​​​​
Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​



Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

Other Blogs of Interest
Utilities: In the Eye of the Natural Disaster Storms. 
Aging Mom Doesn't Want to Discuss Dilapidated House. Investors Ask Natalie.
Sell in May?
Tesla, Tariffs, Chinese Competition and Price Wars.  
Fun Ways to Celebrate Earth Day April 22nd.
Will the Correction Become a Bear Market?
21st Century Recessions Look More Like Depressions. 
Will Oil Prices Sink or Soar? Executives are Uncertain.
Health Savings Accounts. Save Thousands. Get a Tax Credit. Provide for Tomorrow's Healthcare Needs.
Restormel Manor House 2025. A Truly Royal and Magical Adventure. 
9 Ways to Cut Your Tax Bill in Half and Save Thousands Annually.
Berkshire Hathaway. Should I Just Invest in Warren Buffett?
Should I Have a Money Manager?
The Cleanest Cities in the World. 
Can Altadena, Pacific Palisades and Gaza Become Edens?
Rebuilding Gaza. American Companies Will Benefit.
Top Dividend/Income Strategies for 2025. 
2025 Crystal Ball: Who Will be the Superstars of Wall Street?
Gold & Crypto IRAs and the Risk of Fraud and Losses.
10 Rules of Successful Investing. 
Quantum Computing. 
Paper Losses. ​Another Warning About Long-Term Bonds!
2025 Investor IQ Test. 
2025 Investor IQ 
Test Answers.
Apple 
iPhone Sales Plunge in China.
Indonesia: Rich in Nickel with Ambitions of Becoming an EV Battery Hub.
RoboTaxis. AI. The Magnificent 7. 
Charitable Giving. Nonprofits that are Worthy of Supporting.
Why Are So Many Safe Investments Losing Money?
A Bargain-Priced AI Company.
Canadian, Australian and U.S. Banks. Are Any of Them Safe?
Ireland. Rich in Technology, Biotechnology and Agribusiness. 
Robo Investing and AI. No, They are Not Foolproof.
Stocks Soar as Nvidia Joins the DJIA. 
Copper. Peru ETF Outperforms the S&P500.
Will Insurance Companies & Homeowners Weather the Hurricanes?
9 Money Secrets of the Ultra Wealthy.
Housing & Budgeting Solutions.
Arkansas Sues Temu for Data Theft.
We Must Be the Boss of Our Money. Why?
Fast Fashion. Fossil Fuels. Plastic Clothing. Atacama Desert Waste Dumps. 
Can Crowdstrike Recover from its Colossal Catastrophe? Featuring a Cybersecurity Overview.
Fintechs and Brokerages that Fail are Not FDIC-Insured.
5 Green Tips for Clean Beaches Week.
So, You Think You Want to Be a B&B Owner...
Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now.
2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. 
Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. 
9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions.
China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 
2024 Investment of the Year?
Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. 
Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble.
Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. 
The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals.
The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands.
13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough.
China Bans Apple
11-Point Green Checklist for Schools.
10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals.
Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper)
Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments.
BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct?
Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry.
​Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices
Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? 
Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? 
My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him?
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.


Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
​
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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Utilities: At the Center of the Natural Disaster Storm.

13/5/2025

0 Comments

 
Picture
Palisades Fire as seen from Venice Beach on Jan. 7, 2025. Photo by: Arkadiynight. Wiki Commons. Used with permission.

Utilities: At the Center of the Natural Disaster Storm.
Is This Industry a Good Hedge Against Market Volatility? What about water, consumer staples or even cybersecurity?

PG&E declared bankruptcy in 2019 after the Camp Fire. Southern California Edison is facing at least 40 lawsuits tied to the 2025 Eaton Fire. In the past, utilities were buoyant in bear markets. In hard times, people still need water and electricity and continue paying their bills. However, in today’s world of unprecedented natural disasters and the plethora of lawsuits that land on utility companies, are there better hedges against stocks going south? Could water, consumer staples or cybersecurity companies provide better protection?
 
Below are the things we’ll cover in this blog.
 
Southern California Edison Sued. PG&E Bankruptcy.
Low Credit Quality, High Debt with Slow Growth
Pandemic Lows, The Great Recession, Valuations and Share Price Volatility 
Water Utilities 
Consumer Staples
Cybersecurity
 
And here is more information on each point.
 
Southern California Edison Sued. PG&E Bankruptcy.
On March 5, 2025, Los Angeles County filed a lawsuit against Southern California Edison alleging that the company’s equipment started the Eaton Fire that decimated Altadena in January of 2025. More than 40 lawsuits have been filed against the company. Edison International’s share price plunged from a high of $88.77 on Nov. 27, 2024, to a low of $49.06 (Feb. 10, 2025). The current price of $56.97 is still down -35.8%. The total damage of the Eaton Fire has been estimated at $25 billion. The market value of Edison International is $21.93 billion.


In early 2019, PG&E filed for bankruptcy due to an alleged $30 billion in financial liabilities stemming from Southern California wildfires in 2017 and 2018, including the 2018 Camp Fire that killed 85 people and destroyed the town of Paradise, California. The share price is still down -75%. (This was one of the few corporate restructurings where the share price wasn’t wiped out completely.)
The litigious frailty of utility companies in today’s world of expensive, devastating wildfires and storms makes these equities some of the riskiest in today’s world. Dividends aren’t worth such devastating loss of principal. The lawsuits and liability of utility companies are compounded by high debt, regulated rate increases and low credit quality.
 
Low Credit Quality, High Debt with Slow Growth
Utility companies tend to be racked with debt. Many utilities are ranked at the lowest rung of investment grade, with some already in speculative territory. PG&E is rated BB Positive (speculative). Edison International is BBB with a negative outlook. A credit downgrade almost always drags the share price down with it.
 
Regulations prevent willy-nilly rate increases on utility bills. So, revenue growth rates are restrained. It’s rare to see anything more than single-digit sales growth in a utility company.
 
Pandemic Lows, The Great Recession, Valuations and Share Price Volatility 
Dividend-loving investors are often sold into utilities – pushing the share price above reasonable valuations – something Edison International enjoyed before the January 2025 wildfires in Southern California. All the other companies on my Utility Stock Report Card are boasting very high valuations (for such a slow-growth industry) – with P/Es in the 24-27 range. Email [email protected] if you’d like to receive a Utility Stock Report Card.
 
Expensive share prices invite volatility. During the Great Recession, National Grid sank from $92.17/share on Nov. 30, 2007, to $40.18/share by Jan. 30, 2010. In 2022, when the S&P500 dropped -19.44%, the iShares Global Utility ETF (JXI) dropped in tandem between January and November.
 
While funds can smooth out the volatility of any one utility company’s troubles, the last-century idea that utilities’ investors remain cool-headed when volatility heats up isn’t true in a world that seems to be on fire.
 
Water Utilities 
Water is essential to life. It is in high daily demand, with a limited supply of fresh, potable H2O. Limited supply and massive demand often make the case for a great investment – until you look deeper into the well. Water, like electricity, is highly regulated and controlled. Farmers in Duncan, Arizona (including a family friend) had their wells sealed. Nevada has a “grass ban” for non-functional lawns. There are laws in drought-ridden states that govern rainwater harvesting.
 
Like electric utilities, many water companies are highly regulated, tend to have a lot of debt and a low credit score, and currently have an expensive share price (as measured by price-earnings ratio). Email [email protected] if you’d like to receive a Water Stock Report Card.
 
So, what about other industries, like consumer staples and perhaps cybersecurity as hedges against a decline in stock prices?
 
Consumer Staples
By the book, consumer staples should be a way to ride steady on the waves of Wall Street. We continue to eat, wash our hair and go to the bathroom during economic downturns. However, the retail apocalypse has changed the game for brick-and-mortar and tariffs could erase the already thin profit margins (often 3%) of many consumer outlets. One look at the five-year high and low of Walmart, Target, Amazon and Temu (PDD Holdings) tells us all we need to know about the volatility of investing in this industry, with share swings that can double or even quadruple. Valuations are high in many of the companies. Amazon earned $59 billion in net income last year but has a market capitalization of $2.24 trillion. In 2022, Amazon’s share price fell by half. (The S&P500 dropped -19.44%.)
                                                     
Cybersecurity
Cybersecurity is a basic need for all governments and online businesses. It’s an expense that can’t be eliminated no matter how much belt tightening a company or country must do. The revenue growth rates are impressive – with almost all the companies enjoying a double-digit year over year increase in sales. Many cybersecurity companies are GAAP cash negative, as this nascent industry invests to keep ahead of the hackers.
 
The great news about the industry is already priced in. Even Crowdstrike, the company at the center of the Blue Screen crash that grounded Delta Airlines last July 2024, is trading close to an all-time high.
 
While this industry is a part of my personal portfolio, if I were adding it to my age-appropriate, diversified plan, I’d dollar-cost average in. If you added this industry years ago when we first featured it, it’s probably a good time to consider profit-taking. After the Spring Rally (now) is an ideal time to do our regular rebalancing. (Click to take our Rebalancing IQ Test.)
 
Email [email protected] if you’d like to receive a Consumer Staples or Cybersecurity Stock Report Card.
 
Bottom Line
The best hedge against a downturn on Wall Street is to overweight safe in our age-appropriate, properly diversified plan – to act a little older than we are. In our sample pie charts, we’re overweighting 20% safe. (Email [email protected] to receive a link to our free web app, where you can personalize your own pie chart.) Capital preservation (assuming you know how to do this without the paper losses) assures that we limit any losses, while also keeping us invested. Rebalancing 1-3 times a year smooths out the volatility of the Wall Street rollercoaster, allowing us to capture and keep our gains. There are a few more adjustments we are making in our sample pie charts to manage for an overpriced marketplace, as we enter a period that might suffer from stagflation or even a recession.
 
If the above paragraph sounds like an alien language, it’s time to learn the ABCs of Money that we all should have received in high school. Having blind faith that someone else is protecting our future and wealth doesn’t work well in downturns. Managed plans tend to do whatever the market does, and many conservative investors are suffering from paper losses. (Our educational guidance on safety has protected fixed income investors from paper losses.) Again, our time-proven, 21st Century strategy makes investing as easy as a pie chart. Join us at the June 6-8, 2025 Online Financial Freedom Retreat.  
 


Join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget and how to green your money. The following Saturday on June 14, 2025, at our Real Estate Master Class. you'll discover the 10-point checklist for home buyers and sellers, as well as some overlooked areas of opportunity. If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Your friends and family can get the best price for the Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 when they register by May 15, 2025. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 

​​
Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. 
​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.


​
Picture
Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Early Bird pricing ends May 15, 2025.
Picture
Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and eight private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 8 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 70% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!
Picture
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
​​​​
Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​


Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

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Aging Mom Doesn't Want to Discuss Dilapidated House. Investors Ask Natalie.
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Stocks Soar as Nvidia Joins the DJIA. 
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Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. 
Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble.
Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. 
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Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? 
Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? 
My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him?
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.


Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
​
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

0 Comments

Aging Mom Doesn’t Want to Discuss Dilapidated House. Investors Ask Natalie.

9/5/2025

0 Comments

 
Picture
Harry Potter fans in the courtyard of Alnwick Castle (Hogwarts). Photo by Michael Hogan. Wiki Commons. Used with permission.

Aging Mom Doesn’t Want to Discuss Dilapidated House. Investors Ask Natalie.
 
Dear Natalie,
 
My aging mother lives in a house that is literally falling apart. Things are so drafty, and electricity bill bills are so high, that she just lives in a very small portion of it. It’s in an area of the country that gets very cold in the winter and extremely hot in the summer. So, there’s really no break from the high electric bills. Our family feels like she could use a little extra support from us, although she insists that she’s fine. We’ve never talked about money as a family, but it really feels like this is long overdue. How should we approach this delicate topic?
 
Signed,
Keeping Quiet Isn’t Working Anymore
 
Dear Smart Daughter,
 
Keeping quiet is one of the reasons why many families lose their wealth within three generations, whereas many rich families are able to keep their estates intact for centuries. So, bringing the family together is something that is essential for your mother’s current well-being, but it can also benefit all the family now and in the decades to come.
 
One of the exercises that I do in my Real Estate masterclass is to have everyone add up the housing costs of at least three family members who live in their own separate (often tiny) abodes. Four family members paying $2,000/month each on housing = $96,000/year. That’s a lot of money – it’s a million dollars in just 10.4 years. When we start looking as money as a family asset, we come up with all kinds of ways to keep the money in the family. When we don’t, we are making the landlord and bank rich at our own expense. Wealthy families spend far less on housing than most of us do. Oftentimes their kids spend nothing at all.
 
Princes don’t purchase their own castles. Rather, they must learn to be stewards of the family estate in order not to lose it. One of the most interesting examples of this is that Alnwick Castle is popularly known as Hogwarts. Not only does the Percy Family make money as the location of the Harry Potter films and television shows, the demesne has also become a very popular holiday destination. The Alnwich Garden is worth visiting as well. Starting from that premise with your siblings – that you are copying the moves that wealthy families make – might help to open the new conversation with your mother. Have a plan in place first, however.
 

Picture
The Cascade at the Alnwick Garden. Photo by: Christine Westerback. Wiki Commons. Used with permission.

Is there a contractor, builder or handman in the family? Would someone be interested in overseeing a remodel of your mother’s home? Can this be done while your mother is living there without exposing her to toxic dust? Would a prefab home be a better idea? Should the person overseeing the project be earning some sweat equity (perhaps in the home equity itself) to keep costs down? Should the new home be bigger so that a family can live there with your mother, providing her with more company (loneliness is often a problem with aging parents) and healthier meals?
 
As one potential example, the family project manager could lease to own the house from your mother (once the home is livable). Initially the lease could be covered by her labor on the remodel. After the labor payback, your mother has steady income, which can help her remain financially independent, while giving her extra cash for some fun things she might wish to do. If the project manager hasn’t paid off the entire home at the time of your mother’s death, then the P.M. just buys out whatever equity is left after all her labor and rent is applied. If the home has been paid off, then at least part of the cash that went to your mom in rent might now be available for all the siblings to split in the inheritance. That’s a better scenario than having your mother’s health slowly decline as a result of living in an uninhabitable home, or for the family inheriting a dilapidated home that must be torn down (which is very expensive), and losing out on the extra money that could be generated in the above scenario. The sooner the family stops making all of the landlords rich and starts keeping more money in the family, the more wealth there will be to inherit.

Also, before the remodel, be sure to look at ways to build that can lower the electricity costs. There is a chapter in The ABCs of Money, 6th edition, that outlines many ways to save thousands annually with smarter energy choices, and lists the resources where you can learn more. If your mother lives in a sunny state, then it might be time to consider solar power, especially while there is still a 30% tax credit to do so. 
 
The situation could be very different from what I spelled out above, but this example is intended to illustrate what’s possible, especially if there are trustworthy, hardworking family members who are struggling with the high cost of housing (and who isn’t these days). It’s important to keep things equitable for all the family members, and to compensate the person doing the work. That ensures a win for everyone – including your mother.
 
Bottom Line
Many of us buy into the ethos that we must wait until people pass to talk about money. However, that strategy makes others rich at the family’s expense. Wealthy people talk about money all the time, and they have a plan in place with a vision of keeping the wealth and the estate 100 years from now. While the first conversation might be uncomfortable, you’ll find quickly that the lives of everyone in your family can change, and you’ll feel a lot better about your mother being able to enjoy her golden years, when you fix that dilapidated dwelling now.
 
If you’d like to learn more about Real Estate and having a family plan that benefits everyone, be sure to join me on June 14, 2025, for my online Real Estate masterclass. Email [email protected] to learn more and register now. Check out the hours, pricing and testimonials at the flyer.
 

Join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget and how to green your money. The following Saturday on June 14, 2025, at our Real Estate Master Class. you'll discover the 10-point checklist for home buyers and sellers, as well as some overlooked areas of opportunity. If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Your friends and family can get the best price for the Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 when they register by May 15, 2025. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 

​​
Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. 
​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.


Picture
Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Early Bird pricing ends May 15, 2025.
Picture
Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and eight private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 8 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 70% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!
PictureNatalie Pace with her father, Gerald Ray Pace, in 2014.
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
​​​​
Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​


Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

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Sell in May?

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
​
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
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Should You Sell in May Before You Go Away on Vacation

6/5/2025

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Should You Sell in May Before You Go Away on Vacation
Stocks are almost back as high as they were on February 19, 2025. The S&P500 was down -8.8% as of May 6, 2025.
 
So, should you sell in May before you go away on holiday? And by that I mean, rebalance and make sure that you have an age-appropriate, properly diversified plan that is overweighted a little safe (in case of more weakness). Additionally, if you’re suffering from paper losses, is there a better strategy?  
 
Below the topics we will cover in this blog.
 
Spring Rally
September Back to School Stock Sales
Expensive Stock Prices
Tariffs
Chance of a Recession
Whales and Hedge Funds
Paper Losses
 
And here is more information on each one.
 
Spring Rally
While we did have a little recovery from the rout earlier in April when the market flirted with the Bear (-19% on April 8, 2025), the Spring Rally really didn’t measure up this year. Typically, March and April are two of the most reliable performing months of the year. However, with stocks still trading near their all-time high, now is a great time to rebalance our wealth plan.
 
September Back to School Stock Sales
When we rebalance our wealth plan at the end of April/early May we are often capturing gains at the high. This also gives us more liquidity. If the summer is weak, and September is true to form (the worst performing month of the year historically), then we are in a position to buy more at a lower price at the end of September.
 
Rebalancing 1-3 times a year is a very good idea. This is not day trading. It’s simply ensuring that we are observing Modern Portfolio Theory, which is a time-proven, 21st-century plan. Our pie charts make MPT as easy as a pie chart.
 
Every seasoned broker-salesman knows the term: Modern Portfolio Theory. However, I do a lot of unbiased 2nd opinions, and I have yet to find one that was truly age-appropriate and properly diversified. Even more alarmingly, in today’s world I’m seeing a great deal of paper losses in conservative portfolios, and for people who are close to retirement. Keeping our money safe, and having it intact and available is always important, but even more so as we get closer to a time when we are no longer receiving earned income.
 
Expensive Stock Prices
One of the reasons why it’s a very good idea to do our rebalancing now is that stocks are historically expensive. Most of us have heard the term “buy low, sell high.” (In our nest egg, it’s a better idea to think of it as adding low and trimming high, so that we keep the proper amount safe and diversified.) Elevated equity prices are highly correlated with swift and startling declines. In the words used in the Financial Stability Report that was released on April 25, 2025, “Elevated valuation pressures may increase the possibility of outsized drops in asset prices… equity prices remained high.”
​

Tariffs
Tariffs are still a moving target. However, in general, they tend to increase inflation and slow down economies. The U.S. economy contracted -0.3% in the 1st quarter and is expected to slow down to 1.7% GDP growth in 2025, from 2.8% in 2024.
 
The trade war will be hard on a lot of different industries and companies but does have a few positive spots. We have seen the Chinese companies Temu and Shein suspend deliveries in the United States, which is helpful for the beleaguered U.S. fashion and retail industries and may help to reduce fast fashion waste. (As the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It’s Up to Us, I’m hopeful that this pause will allow the word to get out about the many harmful side effects of polyester, which is an oil product. Up to 80% or more of the clothes churned out by fast fashion companies can be composed of oil-based fabrics.)
 
The automotive industry is one that could be adversely affected. In their 1Q 2025 financial results, Ford suspended their forward guidance and warned that they could have a “tariff-related net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 billion for full year 2025.” Since Ford Motor Company has teetered between BBB- (investment grade) and junk status over the past decade, tariffs could have a negative impact on Ford’s credit rating. Tesla is in a slightly better position for a variety of reasons, including: 1) having the top selling sedan in the world, 2) being one of the top selling EV brands in the world, and, 3) manufacturing cars in the region that it sells. However, Tesla (and Ford and GM) are being challenged by lower-priced Chinese EV manufacturers, which is why on both sales and profits. You can learn more about this in my Tesla blog.
 
Chance of a Recession?
JP Morgan has put the risk of a recession in the US in 2025 at 60%. Of course, that also means there is a 40% chance that we skate by without one. This is another argument for making sure that we know exactly what we own and why now and understand how to protect our wealth from another downturn in stock prices.
 
It’s important to remember that 21st-century recessions have historically cost a lot of investors more than half of their wealth and then take years to crawl back to even. It took the NASDAQ Composite Index 15 years to return to its March 2000 high after the Dot Com Recession, which handed -78% losses to Dot Com investors. (A million dollars became $220,000.) During the Great Recession, 20 million homes were foreclosed on and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index dropped by -55%, taking almost six years to recover.
​


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Stock Data by MSN.com. (c) Microsoft. Used with permission.
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Stock Data by MSN.com. (c) Microsoft. Used with permission.

Whales and Hedge Funds
On April 8, 2025, when stocks plunged by -19% from their Feb. 19, 2025, highs, the selling was coming from the whales of Wall Street. That is the way it typically goes. The big players on Wall Street take profits at the top. Main Street is placated with consoling words that it is really not as bad as everyone thinks. By the time when we think it’s an Apocalypse, we’re closer to the bottom, which is when many Main Street investors are tempted to sell. In fact, if you look more closely at the charts above, recessions are not typically declared until Main Street has lost 40% or more of their wealth. In most cases, they won’t be officially declared until at least seven months in. This is another reason why we want to rebalance regularly rather than sit on our hands.
 
In my most recent Money Show presentation, one of the participants asked me if Main Street investors would just get used to the volatility. The problem with that premise is that losing money isn’t a mental exercise. It can plunge us into a real-world crisis. Most of us really can’t afford to lose any of our wealth much less half of it. Our FICO score plunges. Our ability to solve basic financial problems, such as paying our mortgage or rent, becomes problematic. And when fear rules the day, we’re tempted to sell low to stop more losses and sleep at night.
 
Proper diversification with regularly balancing is a “capture gains” mindset. The reason most people cannot buy low and sell high is this it’s contrary to human nature, until we train our emotions to be in service to a better plan. Additionally, most people don’t buy low because they can’t. When you lose half or more in a recession, you’re struggling to stay afloat and to keep your home. You just have the resources to take advantage of the opportunities that arise when prices drop.
 
Paper Losses
In a normal recession, bonds can be buoyant. It is one of the ways that Milo Bolden earned gains in the Great Recession, when most people around her lost half or more of their wealth and took years (or a decade) to get out of the hole.
 

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However, these days there is too much leverage, debt, low credit quality and duration risk for a cut in interest rates to solve everything. In 2022, long-term government bond values dropped -26%, resulting in the failure of five banks in early 2023. If you are suffering from paper losses, your conservative plan could be a lot riskier than you realize. Learn more in the blogs below.
 
Should I Have a Managed Portfolio
Paper Losses


 
Bottom Line 
It’s human nature to wait until things are broken to fix them. However, it’s a far better plan to fix the roof while the sun is shining than to wait for the storm to cause a flood.
 
“Sell in May before you go away” is a popular Wall Street aphorism for a reason. Wall Street goes dark in August, as burned-out financial executives flee Manhattan and the Beltway. Bad news is often buried over the summer. That is one of the reasons why September tends to be the worst performing month. The investor who has captured gains, locked in their profits and increased liquidity is in a position to buy low if prices weaken over the summer and in September.
 
In 2025, sell in May before you go away on vacation is likely to be a good idea. I’m not suggesting promoting market timing. Rather, make sure that we are:
 
·      Keeping a percentage equal to our age safe,
·      Diversifying the at-risk portion of our nest egg,
·      Overweighting an additional 10-20% safe, due to heightened leverage, expensive prices, lower liquidity and the increased risk of a recession.
 
I’m hosting a Financial Freedom Retreat online June 6-8, 2025, where you can learn and implement this strategy. Email [email protected] to learn more now.
 
 
Join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget and how to green your money. The following Saturday on June 14, 2025, at our Real Estate Master Class. you'll discover the 10-point checklist for home buyers and sellers, as well as some overlooked areas of opportunity. If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Your friends and family can get the best price for the Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 when they register by May 15, 2025. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 

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Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. 
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"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.
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Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Early Bird pricing ends May 15, 2025.
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Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and eight private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 8 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 70% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!
PictureNatalie Pace at the Ritz Carlton in Powerscourt, Ireland. Photo by Marie Commiskey.
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
​​​​
Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​


Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

Other Blogs of Interest
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Fun Ways to Celebrate Earth Day April 22nd.
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Will Oil Prices Sink or Soar? Executives are Uncertain.
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Test Answers.
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Ireland. Rich in Technology, Biotechnology and Agribusiness. 
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Stocks Soar as Nvidia Joins the DJIA. 
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Housing & Budgeting Solutions.
Arkansas Sues Temu for Data Theft.
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Fast Fashion. Fossil Fuels. Plastic Clothing. Atacama Desert Waste Dumps. 
Can Crowdstrike Recover from its Colossal Catastrophe? Featuring a Cybersecurity Overview.
Fintechs and Brokerages that Fail are Not FDIC-Insured.
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So, You Think You Want to Be a B&B Owner...
Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now.
2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. 
Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. 
9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions.
China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 
2024 Investment of the Year?
Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. 
Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble.
Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. 
The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals.
The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands.
13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough.
China Bans Apple
11-Point Green Checklist for Schools.
10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals.
Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper)
Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments.
BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct?
Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry.
​Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices
Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? 
Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? 
My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him?
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.


Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
​
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
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    Natalie Pace is the co-creator of the Earth  Gratitude Project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, The ABCs of Money, The ABCs of Money for College, The Gratitude Game and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. She is a repeat guest & speaker on national news shows and stages. She has been ranked the No. 1 stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency, and has been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999.

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  • Stock Master Class 2025
  • Options for Beginners Master Class
  • Sustainability Summit
  • Restormel Retreat 2025