Election Years With Negative Yield Curves = Recession. The S&P500 is up 15.3% so far in 2024. How will the rest of this election year play out? Will it be more like 2020 (+16.3%) or 2008 (-38.5%)? Emotions run the gamut between AI-mania, and thinking the dollar will become worthless and banks will fail. What does history teach us? What’s our best strategy? Since 2000 (-10.14%) and 2008 were both terrible election years on Wall Street, and the negative yield curve flashed a recession warning in those years (such as is happening today), it’s a good idea for us to pay attention to the economic indicators. Below are the topics we’ll cover in this blog. Election Year Performance Negative Yield Curve Effect Market Performance Riding on Just 5 Companies Real Estate Hitting New Highs Economic Phantoms Hiding in the Wings Don’t Fight the Fed Time-Proven 21st Century Investing Strategies Election Year Performance As you can see in the chart below, over the 10-year period election years look fine, with 12.9% average annualized gains. However, over the long-term, election and mid-term years are the worst in the 4-year cycle, with a mere 2-3% year-over-year gain. That has a lot to do with the Dot Com and the Great Recessions, when the S&P500 lost -38.49% (2008) and -10.14% (2000). Those two years have a few things in common with this year, including a negative yield curve. Negative Yield Curve Effect Below is a chart of the 10-year treasury versus the 2-year. When the line goes negative, that is known as a negative yield curve. It’s important to notice that there is a 100% correlation between negative yield curves and recessions in the chart. Many of those recessions started in an election year – 2000, 2008 and even 2020 (although the pandemic recession was the shortest in history, due to the U.S. handing out $4.2 trillion to every person and corporation with a heartbeat). During periods of a negative yield curve, investors are getting paid a higher interest rate on the 2-year treasury than they are on the 10-year. Here’s another chart that reflects that. (We discuss this in greater detail during the “What’s Safe” day of our Financial Freedom Retreat.) Daily U.S. Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates June 21, 2024 Since banks, insurance companies and pension providers are typically the creditors of long-term debt, and long-term debt can be illiquid and negative-yielding during negative yield curve periods, there is an elevated risk of a recession sparked from the financial services industry. (One was quelled in 2023 by the Federal Reserve Board. Keep reading.) We’ve been on recession watch for the past two years, while it is now hoped that the U.S. will stick the soft landing. There remain areas of concern for the financial services industry, particularly with regard to commercial real estate, which is why we are underweighting U.S. financials in our sample pie charts. Check out my blogs “Uh Oh. More Bank Trouble,” and the “WeWork Bankruptcy” for more information on banks and CRE. If you’re worried that banks will fail en masse or the dollar will become worthless, read, “China and Russia Double Their Gold,” and “BRICS.” There are ways to hedge against another financial meltdown. However, neither the Iraqi dinar, nor the Venezuelan bolivar, nor BRICS are the solutions (as so many infomercials have been promoting). Market Performance Riding on Just 5 Companies By now you’ve heard of the spectacular 2023 gains of the Magnificent 7, which have become the Fantastic 5 this year. The Magnificent 7 doubled last year. Without the performance of the Magnificent 7 (which doubled in share price in 2023), the S&P500 gains would have been 9.9% instead of the 26.3% total return. You missed out on these impressive returns if you didn’t have a large cap growth fund or a Breakthrough Technology ETF. When we hear of a company like Nvidia soaring over 9-fold in share price since the beginning of 2023, it’s easy to want to jump in and pray for a pot of gold. However, it’s equally important to understand that what flies high can also crash. It’s not that artificial intelligence will become less pervasive. It’s more a question of valuation. As you can see in the price-earnings chart below, the only time when stocks were more expensive than they are today was before the Dot Com Recession. The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped -78% between the high of March 2000 and the low of October 2002. Nvidia’s net profit was just $30 billion in 2023, yet investors are valuing the company at almost $3 trillion. 71 is a very high P/E even for a company that is increasing revenue at 265% year over year. Internet stocks have led market returns over the past year and a half, fulfilling the promise of the New Economy that was touted to investors in 2000 (before the Dot Com Recession). However, the superstars of 2023 and 2024 were some of the worst performers in 2022. The S&P500 dropped -19.44%. Tesla sank -66%, Nvidia lost half, and the NASDAQ Composite Index tumbled -33%. Real Estate Hitting New Highs The existing home price hit a new high in May, marking a largely unaffordable nationwide mean of $419,300 (source: The National Association of Realtors). According to AttomData, 32.3% of a person’s income is required to purchase a home. (Canadian data shows that the problem is even more severe in Canada, where 60% of income is required to buy.) Similarly, real estate was on fire before the Great Recession, hitting an all-time high for that period in 2006 of $221,900, before sinking to a low of $166,100 in 2011. By 2008, the U.S. was seeing unprecedented rates of foreclosures. Mortgage banks were going bankrupt or being rescued. Over 20 million foreclosures occurred in the Great Recession era. What’s different this time around? Foreclosures are up 56% year over year. However, they remain near historic lows, at less than 1%. That’s largely due to loan modifications, rather than a reflection of housing as a sustainable piece of the family budget (note again the high percentage of one’s income that must now be devoted to housing). As a result of the loan mod process being used routinely in lieu of foreclosure, 2.3 million mortgages are currently severely underwater, even as home prices are at an all-time high. More homeowners staying in their homes, even if they really can’t afford the payment, means fewer homes for sale, which pushes up prices. Delinquencies on CRE mortgages are increasing, with delinquency rates on CRE CLOs up “notably,” according to the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Stability Report. However, a similar work-through is happening in the CRE market. Rather than sending a company into bankruptcy, a more widespread practice is to lengthen the term of the loan, while tacking on the fees and unpaid interest and principal to an ever ballooning amount due. The relatively low turnover in the commercial real estate market has resulted in prices declining a mere -1.3% in 2023. According to the Financial Stability Report, “These transaction-based price measures likely do not yet fully reflect the deterioration in CRE market prices because, rather than realizing losses, many owners wait for more favorable conditions to put their properties on the market.” The report concluded that “risks on loans backed by CRE properties [remain] elevated, and banks with concentrated exposure to this sector are particularly vulnerable.” We saw that in spades with New York Community Bank – the bank featured in my “Uh Oh” blog. Economic Phantoms Hiding in the Wings As we see with the negative yield curve, the market gains concentrated in just five companies, elevated price-earnings ratios in equities, sky-high home prices, and even a commercial real estate market that has yet to price in empty office buildings, there are quite a substantial amount of economic phantoms hiding in the wings. While many Main Street investors might not see these issues in the headlines (that are instead touting new Wall Street highs daily!), we all feel them and witness them in our budgets, our malls, our neighborhoods and even our own brokerage statements (which won’t reflect impressive market gains if we don’t have large cap growth, AI or technology in them). It’s no wonder that our emotions get jacked around between AI euphoria and doomsday predictions. Don’t Fight the Fed The government saved the day in 2020, preventing what everyone feared could be as bad as the Great Depression. Corporations and individuals alike were given money to get through the pandemic. Some debt was completely forgiven. Others can be paid back slowly over a great deal of time. When banks were failing in 2023, the Federal Reserve Board created a special Bank Term Funding Program where bond paper losses could essentially be marked at par. The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024. TARP stabilized the financial system during the Great Recession. Today, the Feds are encouraging banks to work with delinquent borrowers rather than foreclose or force the corporation into bankruptcy. The consequences of that are stubbornly high home and even CRE prices. With no bankruptcies, foreclosures or bank failures in the headlines, investors are willing to take on greater risks, which is pushing equity prices to all-time highs. The Feds will not want to “weigh in” on the election, and will do their best to keep the economic headlines as benign as possible this year. That doesn’t always work. 2008 is an example (although Bernanke and Paulsen lied about the systemic failure of the financial system for as long as they could). Even with all of the financial engineering going on, which could keep stock and real estate prices high while continuing to balloon the nation’s debt, there is a way to win, while protecting ourselves from losses. Time-Proven 21st Century Investing Strategies Doomsday predictions are nothing new. They’ve been around since recorded history. Irrational exuberance on Wall Street tends to end badly for Main Street investors, as evidenced by the Great Depression, the Dot Com Recession and the Great Recession. Two out of those three landmark Wall Street routs were in the 21st Century, which is why it is so important to have a recession-proof plan in place before the about-face happens. Business cycles tend to include periods of recessions. We don’t have the political license to print up $4.2 trillion to prevent the next recession, as we did in the pandemic, when the Debt Ceiling had been suspended. When recession risks are heightened, it’s a good idea to overweight safe – to act a little older than we are. (In today’s world of elevated debt and leverage, we must also know what’s safe in order to protect our wealth from liquidity squeezes and paper losses.) The rather simple process listed below earned gains in the Dot Com and the Great Recessions, and has outperformed the bull markets in between. As I’m fond of saying, this strategy is literally easy-as-a-pie-chart – the life math that we all should have received in high school and college. Recession-Proofing Our Wealth Plan 1. Keep a percentage equal to our age safe, 2. Overweight an additional 10-20% safe before the recession, 3. Diversify our at-risk investments to include large growth (plus mid & small caps, value replacements, and hot industries, including technology and AI), and, 4. Rebalance 1-3 times a year to ensure that we are capturing gains at the high, and adding more at the low. Bottom Line There are ample reasons to be concerned about the economy. The real question is whether or not the Feds can continue to stick the soft landing, or will one of the areas of weakness (CRE?) implode, taking elevated prices and a few financial services companies down with it. Whether we are euphoric, skeptical, ready to become a Prepper, or ready to dive into crypto, a better plan is to:
We need to fix the roof while the sun is still shining, while stocks and real estate prices are high, rather than hope and pray that we make up losses after the plunge or that our political candidate will save the day. Wisdom and time-proven systems are the cure. The time is now – if history is any accurate predictor of trends. Join us at our online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to: * Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia and artificial intelligence, * Hedge against a weaker dollar, * Invest and compound your gains, * Green your retirement plan, * Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, * Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), * Evaluate stocks, * Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and, * Know what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. Join us for our Online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register by June 30, 2024 to receive the best price and a 50-minute private, prosperity coaching session (value $400). Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability. Register by August 15, 2024 to ensure that you get the exact room you want. (There may not be an opportunity to register after August 15, 2024.) This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two, and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions. Much more affordable than you might think. Email [email protected] to learn more. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest 5 Green Tips for Clean Beaches Week. Nio Sales Expected to More Than Double in 2Q 2024. So, You Think You Want to Be a B&B Owner... Artificial Intelligence and Crypto Scam Alert by the SEC. Netflix Evicts Unpaid Viewers. Empty Theaters. Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. National Clean Beaches Week. July 1-7, 2024. Are you headed for the beach this summer? We all want to frolic in clean water, and love seeing dolphins and whales playing in the waves. When we think of cleaning our oceans and beaches, plastic waste comes to mind, as does pollution runoff that can make swimming and surfing unhealthy. It can feel like other people and corporations are the polluters, especially if we already have our reusable water canteen and coffee mug. However, in fact, there’s a lot more that each one of us can do to rid our oceans of the flotsam, jetsam, gunk and toxins that none of us want to swim in – or see turtles wrapped up in. Diving deeper into ocean health has an additional upside in that it brings greater physical health to us personally (and our entire planet), and can save us a lot of money, too. 5 Tips for National Clean Beaches Week Refuse Plastic (Go Old School for Our Coffee and Green Drinks, and refuse plastic packaging) 1 RX for Toxic Waste From Storm Drains: Eat Local, Regenerative & Organic Swim, Surf, Row and Sail (instead of Jet Skiing, Yachting and Cruise Ships) Buy Less of Everything Walk and Bike More Here are a few facts that just don’t hit the news very often, along with additional information on the 5 tips for supporting healthy oceans and the diverse plants and animals who live there. Refuse Plastic (Go Old School for Our Coffee and Green Drinks, and Refuse Plastic Packaging) Less than 9% of plastic gets recycled. This is why we must refuse plastic, instead of just throwing it away in what we think is the proper bin. There are many ways we can do this with just a little preparation. I’ll discuss some of the ways that I have reduced my personal plastic footprint by 80% in my June 27, 2024 free videoconference at 3 pm PT (6 pm ET). 1 RX for Toxic Waste From Storm Drains: Eat Local, Regenerative & Organic There is a Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico that is about the size of Connecticut, where no fish or marine life can live. The cause? Industrial chicken, cattle and pig farm pollution, and conventionally grown produce toxins runoff that travels down the Mississippi River. Eating local, regenerative & organic produce and meat is one solution. Community and personal gardens are even better. Some organizations like Ron Finley, the Edible Schoolyard, Green Our Planet, and Good Neighbor Gardens offer classes and curriculum. Many are featured in the Food & Health and Kids episodes of our free Earth Gratitude docuseries. Cheap chicken, rainforest beef and pesticide produce all end up washing pollutants into our oceans. Swim, Surf, Row and Sail (instead of Jet Skiing, Yachting and Cruise Ships) Cruise ships emit two to three times the CO2 of flying, and pollute oceans with their sewage, gray water, bilge water, ballast water, hazardous waste and solids waste. Yachts get about 3-5 mpg of gasoline. A jet ski operated for two hours can produce as much CO2 as a car driven for 130,000 miles. Older models dump gallons of gasoline into the water. Buy Less of Everything An unfathomable amount of pollution occurs while shipping products made in China around the world. Many of the popular new fast fashion brands are Chinese-owned, and almost all of cheap goods are made in Asia. Walk and Bike More The 87-day oil spillage of the Deepwater Horizon, of an estimated 134 million gallons of oil, is the worst in history. Experts are still assessing the long-term damage of this spill. Many oil spills and environmental disasters are not reported nationally, unless they are truly monumental. How many of us heard that there was a 3-4 mile oil slick off of Louisiana reported on Nov. 16, 2023 – representing over a million gallons of oil? When we find ways to garage the car and walk and bike more, we are a big part of the solution of kicking our oil addiction and the pervasive pollution that results from having oil products touch so many aspects of our lives. (Plastic, polyester, asphalt, rubber, even our sneakers and CROCs are all made from oil.) Yes, EVs pollute less than ICE vehicles (in most states). However, replacing each single-occupancy ICE vehicle with an EV still has a large environmental impact, and doesn’t address the need for shade trees, walkable neighborhoods, and for reducing traffic jams, gridlock and other urban blight. Bottom Line This list is not comprehensive. However, so many of the tips from other sources are focusing on zinc-based sunscreen that I felt a strong desire to deepen the well of our wisdom, so that we might drink clean water and surf with the dolphins for seven generations to come. Join me for my June 27, 2024 free videoconference at 3 pm PT (6 pm ET) to gain even more clarity. Email [email protected] with VIDEOCON in the subject line if you’d like to join us live. Otherwise, you can watch the videoconference back at YouTube.com/NataliePace. FYI: May was National Biking Month. Learn why Amsterdam and the Paris are the superstar cities of the world in this regard in my May 2024 National Biking Month blog. Join us at our online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to: * Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia and artificial intelligence, * Hedge against a weaker dollar, * Invest and compound your gains, * Green your retirement plan, * Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, * Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), * Evaluate stocks, * Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and, * Know what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. Join us for our Online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register by June 30, 2024 to receive the best price and a 50-minute private, prosperity coaching session (value $400). Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability. Register by August 15, 2024 to ensure that you get the exact room you want. (There may not be an opportunity to register after August 15, 2024.) This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two, and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions. Much more affordable than you might think. Email [email protected] to learn more. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Nio Sales Expected to More Than Double in 2Q 2024. So, You Think You Want to Be a B&B Owner... Artificial Intelligence and Crypto Scam Alert by the SEC. Netflix Evicts Unpaid Viewers. Empty Theaters. Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Nio Sales Expected to More Than Double in 2Q. Nio is a Tesla electric vehicle competitor that is based out of China. The company announced on June 6, 2024, that they are expecting their 2Q 2024 deliveries to increase by 138% at the top end of the forecast, and that revenue will soar 90% year over year. Nio is a former meme stock darling, whose shares summited at $67/share in January 2021. Today they are trading at under $5/share. Nio’s deliveries report is expected on July 1, 2024, while the earnings report could be released at the end of August. Nio also received the greenlight in China to open up a 3rd factory. Is that enough to send investors into a buying frenzy, or are there other considerations that might keep the stock from popping? What about the fierce competition in electric vehicles, or the negative sentiment that U.S. investors have for Chinese equities? Below are the topics I will discuss in this blog. Global EV Sales & Expectations Deliveries and Revenue Expected to Double Competing with Tesla European & U.S. Tariffs Is Being Cash Negative a Problem? Valuation Will U.S. Investors Ever Love Chinese Equities Again? And here is more color on each topic. Global EV Sales & Expectations According to the International Energy Agency, global electric car sales are expected to reach 17 million in 2024. 10 million will be sold in China alone. That’s more than one in five cars sold in that country. Expectations are (based on current policies) that by 2030, 1/3 of the cars in China and 1/5 of those in the U.S. will be electric. This year, European EVs are expecting to account for one in every four sales. At least three manufacturers — Tesla, Hyundai-Kia and General Motors — now offer EVs with more than 300 miles (480 kilometers) of range for less than the cost of the average new vehicle sold in the US, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Green. Per the IEA, “In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already less expensive to buy than their conventional equivalents.” EV prices are dropping due to fierce competition. The increase in driving range between charges makes them more attractive for consumers. There has also been a rapid expansion of super charging stations, where a full charge can be achieved in about 20 minutes. As I mentioned in my EV blog of March 11, 2024, China became the number one auto exporter in May of this year, above Japan. China is also the biggest consumer of EVs, by far. However, there are far too many Chinese EV automakers, and we’re already seeing bankruptcies and fallout as a result of this. Even smart phone companies Huawei and Xiaomi have EVs these days. The competition is driving down prices. The weaker companies will be forced into consolidation or annihilation in the years to come. BYD is the top selling EV manufacturer. Berkshire Hathaway is one of the largest shareholders, with a stake of 6.9%. Tesla is still competing in the top 10, but there are plenty of luxury EVs that are gunning to take Tesla’s spot, including Nio. Deliveries and Revenue Expected to Double As mentioned above, Nio’s deliveries and revenue growth should delight investors. The company delivered 36,614 vehicles in April and May of 2024, with another 19,836 expected in June. According to William Bin Li, founder, chairman and chief executive officer of NIO, “Despite the intensifying market competition, NIO’s premium brand positioning, industry-leading technologies, and innovative ‘chargeable, swappable, upgradeable’ power experience have been recognized for their exceptional competitiveness, leading to solid sequential growth in vehicle deliveries in recent months. Nio is competing for Tesla’s customers, with attractive cars that sell for a little less. Competing with Tesla While Nio’s sales and revenue are doubling, Tesla’s revenues dropped -8.69% in the most recent quarter. Tesla’s inventory increased to 28 days in the 1Q of 2024, versus 15 days in 4Q 2023. Tesla has a very strong brand worldwide, and is still the top selling EV in most markets. However, Nio has been getting noticed, too. Nio’s ET7 won car of the year in Sweden in 2023. It also won the Golden Wheel Award in Germany, and was a technological frontrunner of the year in Denmark, beating the Mercedes EQS and the Tesla model Y. Email [email protected] if you'd like an updated Auto Stock report Card. Tesla has warned that the company’s “vehicle volume growth rate may be noticeably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.” However, even if Tesla continues to sell slightly more cars this year, it is likely that the trend of lower revenue and profits will continue, as the price wars have forced all manufacturers to lower prices. Qualified consumers are now able to lease a Tesla for just $299/month! European & U.S. Tariffs Nio just launched a new more affordably priced SUV that is designed to compete directly with Tesla‘s model Y. According to Reuters, in May Nio unveiled the Onvo L60 SUV with a sticker price starting at 219,900 yuan ($30,300), while Tesla's Model Y starts at 249,900 yuan in China ($34,481). Nio was starting to compete with Tesla in Europe. On May 23, 2024, Nio opened an Amsterdam showroom. However, on June 12,2024, the EU slapped Chinese EVs with tariffs of up to 38.1%, which will undoubtedly stifle sales. The U.S. White House slapped a 100% tariff rate on Chinese EVs on May 14, 2024, effectively blocking the country from the U.S. market. The U.S. and many European countries sell cars in China. There have been meetings where Chinese regulators are considering a retaliation with a tariff on foreign ICE vehicles (gas guzzlers). That would be a nightmare for Germany. This is an ongoing issue. However, according to Nio‘s CEO William Lio, most of Nio‘s car sales are in China. According to Li, the impact of tariffs will not materially harm their business at this time, though it will surely impede their expansion plan. Is Being Cash Negative a Problem? Tesla was cash negative for over a decade before it turned to profit. When an innovation disrupts an entrenched industry, such as autos, they have to build expensive factories in order to manufacture that market-changing product. That’s expensive. It’s just not uncommon for these kinds of companies to be cash negative for many years. Nio has $6.3 billion in cash, some of which is restricted. The company is investing in additional factories to keep up with demand. Other areas of expansion include the launch of the Firefly model, which will be a very affordable EV priced at just $13,800 to $27,600. It is intended to be a smaller 2nd vehicle for the household, marketed initially just to the Chinese consumer. Nio is also expanding their power swap network, which includes the ability for owners to upgrade to a longer range battery pack. Valuation Tesla’s net income was $15 billion in 2023. The company has a market capitalization of $580 billion. That’s very lofty, with a price earnings ratio of 46, even given that the company’s stock has already dropped almost -40% from its 52-week high. (The historical average P/E is 17.) Tesla is not expected to grow revenue or profits this year to match the lofty valuation. Many of the younger EV manufacturers are cash negative. When we compare their price to sales ratios, Tesla is very elevated at 6.44, compared to a more reasonable 1.14 at Nio. Nio had sales of $7.8 billion in 2023 and its market cap is only 10.1 billion. (Tesla’s sales in 2023 were $96.8 billion.) So if investors do indeed get excited about the blowout deliveries report, which is scheduled for July 1, 2024, or the 2Q 2024 earnings report, which should be released at the end of August, there should be plenty of room for upside – if there wasn’t a generally negative sentiment among U.S. investors for Chinese stocks. Will Global Investors Ever Love Chinese Equities Again? Outside of a spurt of meme stock popularity in early 2021, Chinese equities have struggled to attract U.S. investors since 2018. Millennials and Gen Z are still very interested in trying to hit the jackpot with investing. However, many of them learned their lesson about due diligence in 2021, after getting burned on the wrong side of the trade on Gamestop, AMC, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Blackberry, et al. So, will a blowout earnings report by Nio be enough to attract Reddit meme mania? While anything is possible (and memes were the key to Nio’s $67 price tag in 2021), the Index of Economic Freedom’s “Repressed” ranking of the Chinese economy sums up investor sentiment about Chinese equities at this time. Bottom Line After years of supplies chain disruptions and all kinds of challenges, including fierce competition, Nio is emerging as a very well-run, beloved brand, not just by the Chinese, but also by the Europeans. (Americans aren’t allowed access to Chinese EVs at this time.) In a normal world, Nio’s share price should soar after their sensational 2Q 2024 earnings and deliveries reports. However, today’s world is anything but normal. If Nio achieves meme status, the rise and fall could be as spectacular and devastating as it was in 2021. Proceed with caution, even if the news manages to make headlines in the Western world. Join us at our online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to: * Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia and artificial intelligence, * Hedge against a weaker dollar, * Invest and compound your gains, * Green your retirement plan, * Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, * Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), * Evaluate stocks, * Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and, * Know what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. Join us for our Online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register by June 22, 2024 to receive the best price and a 50-minute private, prosperity coaching session (value $400). Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability. Register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two, and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions. Much more affordable than you might think. Email [email protected] to learn more. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest So, You Think You Want to Be a B&B Owner... Artificial Intelligence and Crypto Scam Alert by the SEC. Netflix Evicts Unpaid Viewers. Empty Theaters. Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. So You Think You Want to be a B&B Owner… This is a guest blog, written by Deborah Mendelsohn, the co-owner of the Simpson Hotel in Duncan, Arizona Every inn owner’s experience is different from the next. I can speak only from my own experience in this realm. I’ve visited several other B&Bs over the years. There is not much overlap beyond the obvious differences between a B&B and a hotel, or motel. I never thought about owning an inn, until I fell in love with a historic hotel building, the tiny Southwestern town around it, and the river and mountains that framed the town. But once I happened upon that building, and that place, and began to contemplate the possibilities, I recognized that I had character traits and skills that I was going to need. I was not risk-averse. I loved old buildings and the challenges of renovating them. I had what I thought was enough money, from the sale of my last home, to finish the renovation. (I turned out to be about $100K short, due to the collapse of the sewer tie-in system, the need to replace almost all of the electrical and plumbing, and the expense of having an innovative heat exchange system devised and installed for heating and cooling. I emptied out my IRA, and went deep into credit card debt.) I understood basic bookkeeping. I had good interpersonal skills. I knew how to do market research, and I could write well. I had design training, and software, and could create all my own marketing materials. Most of all, I knew from my own life experience that people in the cities with disposable income were often looking for just the kind of place I was moving to: a tiny, charming town in a beautiful place that no one seemed to know about, only a three- or four-hour drive on a scenic highway. I believed that I would be able to build a reputation for my place because of that. I was right. Here are some of the insights that others might glean from my 17 years in the business. Should It Be a B&B or an Inn? First, do you really want to run a classic B&B, where breakfast is included in the room rate? Or would you be more comfortable running an inn, with breakfast as an add-on? Until I decided to drop the B&B label and become an inn, I viewed the breakfasts as a “loss leader” – something that I could not make money on, but that would increase traffic to my business. There really is no way to profit from serving breakfast in a small B&B unless you are able to charge handsome room rates. At low volume, grocery costs are high (you’re not going to serve cheap foods or run-of-the-mill coffee to B&B guests). You will never make enough money to cover the time you spend cooking, setting the table, serving, and cleaning up. So it’s useful to get clear on this from the start. When I brought my husband (whom I met when he walked in the hotel door) into the business, he took over the cooking right about the time I would have burned out beyond recovery. For a few years we continued as a B&B. And then we took down the sign and rebranded our business as an inn. We eventually decided to go all-vegetarian and as organic as possible on the breakfasts, and we put a hefty price tag on them. We’ve had far more takers than we were expecting. Who Do You Really Want as Guests? Second, how well do you understand the demographics of your potential market? Unless you are taking over a business that someone else has already put on the map, this is a very key question. Since I had no experience in hospitality, I started out trying to be all things to all people. I was most interested in attracting those city dwellers that I described above, but I was open to anyone who called or booked through our online reservations service (which at the time cost about $100 a month). A series of ghastly experiences with guests and then the trials of Covid changed all of that. Now we screen all potential guests by phone or email. We profile, but our profiling is not what most people think of when they hear that word. It is very important to us to have only guests who understand what our place is like, and who are comfortable with a “boutique” hotel with no TVs, and a policy of requiring vaccinations against Covid. In our situation, having hotel guests is the same as inviting someone into our home, and having them under the same roof with us. And that’s how we treat it. Once Covid slowed down, we thought and thought about what we could say on our website that would have the same sort of screening effect as our vaccination policy. We sought a different approach that would have more or less the same results in shaping our guest demographics. To date we have not been able to come up with a different approach, so we have kept the policy, making occasional exceptions. We have found that our place is now invariably peaceful. There are no more problem guests. Everyone is happy with their stay. We don’t have to work as hard. No one leaves a mess. No one brings in a semiautomatic weapon, against our wishes. No one drinks too much, and vomits on the bed. No gay guest, no guest of color, or of another nationality, or minority religious identity, has to worry about being comfortable at the breakfast table. It all just works better. We raised our rates. And, because we are the owners, we can cut whatever sort of deals we want to accommodate some guests. Engaging With the Local Community This leads to my last area of observation and reflection: to run a successful B&B or inn or hotel, how important is it to be part of the community in which you operate? From the start, I envisioned my inn with a double identity, as both a hotel, and a center for lectures, music performances, and community meetings. Those community-oriented events were a pleasure to plan and host, and the town would turn out for them. But here, again, Covid changed everything. As we lost one good friend after another to the plague, and kept adding to our tally of the dead all across our town, the great majority hardened into their anti-vaccine and anti-mask positions. I sat on the town council at that time. I could not persuade most of the public to do what they could to prevent spreading of the virus. So we closed the hotel, and I resigned from public service. A year and a half later, we reopened our business. But I have not returned to public life. I’ve learned that we don’t need the lectures and concerts and meetings to make our business flourish. Maybe one day we will do that again, if and when people return to the respect and kindness that were generally afforded in all directions when I first arrived in our little town. In the first years, I would have answered emphatically that engaging the local community was one of the keys to success. Now, I would certainly say that it is preferable at the start. But there are stages of life, I have found. Now I am an older innkeeper, one who prefers quiet, and a life of retreat from the busyness of the world. That sells too, though it is not something I market, but rather something that guests find when they come to stay. Deborah Mendelsohn Deborah Mendelsohn grew up in downtown Boston and rural western Maine as the daughter of civil rights activists. She dropped out of school at 15 and traveled the country, eventually earning a Master’s in comparative religions, while working on psych wards and for Planned Parenthood. She married twice and raised two daughters while working in music, film and television in San Francisco, and then Los Angeles. After learning how to be a TV-film producer at the major studios, she switched tracks and worked for years in broadcast news media development in Russia, Ukraine and other places. Eventually California got too crowded and expensive. She chose a tiny town in a deeply rural part of Arizona, mostly because of a meditation retreat center nearby, and partly because the verdant agricultural valley reawakened her deep love of her roots in Maine. There in tiny Duncan, Arizona, she fell in love with a dilapidated old hotel building and, a few years after she had renovated and opened the hotel, with a man who walked through the front door. Clayton Jarvis, now co-owner of The Simpson Hotel, is an artist and art collector who says he is creating the hotel as a rebellion against the suicidal ignorance of the human condition. Although he has a very interesting past, he reserves stories about that for conversations with friends and hotel guests. He brought his huge art collection into The Simpson, and began a transformation of the hotel’s dirt and chain-link fenced lot into a dreamscape of lofty shade trees, flowering vines, ponds, fountains, statuary and micro-habitats for wildlife. Deborah and Clayton are interested now in what it means to stay put in such a place, as age brings its inevitable questions. There are physical rigors of maintaining the inside and outside of the hotel. And there is the joy of breathing the fresh air of the rural river valley, drinking the water pumped from that valley, growing organic fruits and vegetables year-round, and taking regular walks along the river and the lip of the overhanging mesa. This all adds up to a profoundly salutary way of life. Doctors are an hour away at least, but some aspects of life may be more important in older age than proximity to hospitals. This is an ongoing topic of reflection! Join us for our Online Oct. 18-20, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register by June 22, 2024 to receive the best price and a 50-minute private, prosperity coaching session (value $400). Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability. Register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two, and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions. Much more affordable than you might think. Email [email protected] to learn more. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Artificial Intelligence and Crypto Scam Alert by the SEC. Netflix Evicts Unpaid Viewers. Empty Theaters. Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy (OIEA) is issuing this Investor Alert to warn investors about investment scams that purport to offer investors the opportunity to buy “pre-IPO” shares of companies. SEC staff continue to receive complaints — and to bring enforcement actions — involving these types of scams, which may be promoted on social media and websites, by phone, by email, in person, or through other means. Pre-IPO Offerings May Violate Federal Securities Laws."Pre-IPO" investing involves buying a stake in a company before the company makes its initial public offering of securities, also known as “going public.” Many stock promoters entice potential investors by promising an opportunity to make high returns by investing in a start-up enterprise at the ground floor level. But investing at the pre-IPO stage can involve significant risk for investors, including the risk that you could lose your entire investment. The early-stage company may never be successful, and the share price of the stock may never appreciate in value. In addition, the company may never go public, a market for the company’s shares may never develop, and investors may be unable to resell their shares. Further, pre-IPO offerings are not registered with the SEC. Unregistered securities offerings are prohibited under the federal securities laws unless an exemption from registration is available, and many potential registration exemptions do not permit companies relying on them to broadly offer their securities to the general public. As such, many pre-IPO offerings targeted at the general public may be illegal. Fraudsters may also use unregistered offerings to conduct investment scams. Investors should be mindful of the risks involved with an offer to purchase pre-IPO shares in a company and watch out for red flags that an unregistered offering may be a scam. As with any investment, we encourage investors to research thoroughly both the investment product and the professional offering the product before making any investment decision. Watch Out for Common Red Flags. Unregistered Investment Professionals: Unlicensed, unregistered persons commit much of the investment fraud in the United States. Before making any investment, including purchasing pre-IPO shares, you should check to see whether the seller is currently registered or licensed. You can do this quickly and easily using the free tool on Investor.gov. Aggressive Sales Practices: The organizers of pre-IPO investment scams may set up so-called “boiler rooms” and hire unregistered sales agents to solicit investors. These boiler rooms often purchase lists of investors’ contact information. An unregistered sales agent will typically start a relationship with an investor after “cold calling” them. The agent will often use a formulated script that includes answers and rebuttals to the investor’s anticipated questions. The agents may ask investors to cash out liquid investments in their 401(k) accounts and invest in pre-IPO funds. Sometimes they facilitate setting up new brokerage accounts for the investors. Social Media Solicitations: Fraudsters also may use social media to solicit victims for pre-IPO investment scams. Never make investment decisions based solely on information from social media platforms or apps. Trending Topics: Fraudsters conducting pre-IPO investment scams often pitch the securities of companies claiming to focus on emerging technologies or industries — for example, crypto assets or artificial intelligence (AI) — to entice investors. Claims About Pre-IPO Offerings May Be False or Misleading.The people and companies that promote fraudulent pre-IPO offerings often use impressive-looking websites, online postings, and email spam to entice potential investors. To lure you in, they may make unfounded comparisons between the company they are promoting and other established, successful companies. They may make claims about the timing of the IPO – for example, they may say the IPO is “imminent” or will be “this year.” But these and other claims that sound so believable at first often turn out to be false or misleading. Fraudsters perpetrating pre-IPO scams may tout that they have created investment opportunities for you (as opposed to just for the wealthy) and falsely claim that they won’t make money until you make money. You should be wary of any investment opportunity where the offering is unregistered and there are no investment limits or net worth or income requirements for investing. Those promoting fraudulent pre-IPO offerings may tell you that there are no upfront fees on pre-IPO offerings when they are actually charging you exorbitant, undisclosed markups. They may falsely claim to have a very limited amount of shares or to have shares at a lower price than the anticipated public offering price. In some cases, fraudsters may not even own the pre-IPO shares that they are offering and may use investor funds for personal use rather than to purchase shares. They may also try to hide the identity of involved individuals who have red flags in their backgrounds such as disciplinary actions by a government regulator (including the SEC) or a self-regulatory organization (including FINRA). Again, thoroughly research any investment before handing over your hard-earned money. The SEC Continues to Combat Pre-IPO Scams.Here are some cases that the SEC has brought involving alleged pre-IPO schemes:
Additional Information Social Media and Investment Fraud – Investor Alert Resources for Victims of Securities Law Violations Ask a question or report a problem concerning your investments, your investment account or a financial professional. Visit Investor.gov, the SEC's website for individual investors. Receive Investor Alerts and Bulletins from OIEA by email or RSS feed. This Investor Alert represents the views of the staff of the Office of Investor Education and Advocacy. It is not a rule, regulation, or statement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (“Commission”). The Commission has neither approved nor disapproved its content. This Alert, like all staff guidance, has no legal force or effect: it does not alter or amend applicable law, and it creates no new or additional obligations for any person. Follow the SEC on X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. The more you know, the less likely you are to be prey to a scam. Join us at our online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. Join us for our Online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability. Register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two, and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions. Much more affordable than you might think. Email [email protected] to learn more. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Netflix Evicts Unpaid Viewers. Empty Theaters. Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Empty AMC Theaters. Netflix Evicts Viewers. Furiosa, Garfield, IF and Fall Guy are no match for Last Year’s Barbenheimer. How is streaming doing? Memorial Day weekend is historically a time when people flock to the movies. This year, however, it was a disaster. The #1 movie Furiosa took in $32 million, for the distinction as the worst Memorial Day weekend open since 1995 (excluding 2020 when theaters were closed). According to Comscore, ticket sales are -22% behind 2023 and down -41% from 2019. Anyone who has visited an empty theater lately might be surprised that the numbers aren’t even worse. Meanwhile, Netflix is evicting unpaid viewers, while relying upon advertising revenue to keep revenue growing. Netflix didn't have a film in the Top 5 over Memorial Day weekend. In a world where content is king, can Netflix continue to reign supreme? AMC Entertainment Holdings It's a reminder of the importance of due diligence – particularly with meme stocks. AMC soared to almost $600/share during the Reddit stock-fueled craze of June 2021, even though it was already clear that streaming was going to keep a lot of theater seats vacant. (Click to read our AMC warning from 2021.) AMC shares closed on Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at $4.79/share. The company has been bleeding cash for six out of the last seven years, with the exception of a $101.1 million profit in 2018. On May 30, 2024, S&P Global downgraded AMC’s credit score to SD (Selective Default) after AMC shortchanged bondholders and gave them stock instead. According to S&P Global, “The downgrade follows AMC's completion of a transaction that we view as distressed and tantamount to a default. AMC completed a debt-for-equity exchange on May 15, 2024.” The company has been precipitously close to bankruptcy for years. How Are Streaming Services & Studios Holding Up After the WGA and SAG-AFTRA Strike? After the strikes of 2023, revenues fared a little better than expected, and were pretty flat or only slightly down for many of the studios. Thanks to new advertising revenue, Netflix enjoyed the top revenue growth, with year-over-year gains of 15%. The company plans to scale ads revenue (while continuing to make great shows, stream live and expand their games) to hit their target of 13-15% revenue growth in 2024. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav reminded analysts in the most recent earnings call that, “The best content will win.” Netflix is up against a plethora of streaming services, including MAX (Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming platform). Warner Bros. has had a series of smash hits, including Furiosa, the #1 movie this Memorial Day weekend, Dune: Parts One and Two, and last year’s box office blockbuster Barbie. Netflix didn’t have a film in the top 5 over Memorial Day weekend. The company is winning in increased advertising revenue, but not content. It is also “cutting off some viewers who are not payers.” According to Netflix’s co-CEO Gregory Peters, speaking on the earnings call on April 18, 2024, “When you see our next engagement report, you are going to see some impact to our overall absolute view hours as a result of that.” It takes viewers to sell ads. Even without a hit this Memorial Day, Netflix is still the brand investors associate with streaming. Not surprisingly, Netflix carries a price-earnings ratio of 45 (very high for a mere 15% year-over-year growth). By contrast, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery have far more modest valuations. WBD had revenue of $41.32 billion in 2023. The company’s current market value is only $20 billion. Will Max and Paramount Plus finally gain more credibility on Wall Street and see their share prices soar, if their content continues to reign supreme? Email [email protected] if you’d like an updated Streaming Stock Report Card. What About an IATSE Strike? According to an update on IATSE.net, negotiations between the film crew union and producers are continuing through the end of June. In a press release on June 1, 2024, IATSE’s International President Matthew D. Loeb wrote, “I’m hopeful that we will soon reach a tentative agreement that members will want to ratify.” If an agreement is not reached, studios, streaming services and theaters will all be negatively impacted again. If the two sides come to terms, there will be a collective sigh of relief, and a lot of filming. 2025 could see a very robust slate of films and series with writers, actors and the crew all engaged again. Bottom Line Theatrical streaming companies are doing a lot better than theaters. However, revenue growth is pretty flat. Some streaming services have been hammered by investors (Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount), while others are trading at very lofty prices (Netflix and Disney). Debt remains a concern, with Paramount in junk status, and Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix at the lowest rung of investment grade (BBB- and BBB+, respectively). The IATSE negotiations are a wild card. As David Zaslav reminds us, “Content is King.” With so many options for streaming these days, paid streamers will be attracted quite simply by whatever becomes the next breakout hit, with little incentive otherwise for brand loyalty (particularly when they’re getting kicked off Netflix). Join us at our online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. Join us for our Online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability. Register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two, and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions. Much more affordable than you might think. Email [email protected] to learn more. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Retiring Sometime Over the Next Few Decades? Better Start Planning Now. Social Security will be depleted by 2033, at which time it will only be able to pay 79% of promised benefits. 9 tips for living a rich life today, while securing a stress-free tomorrow. One of the most common mistakes is to retire (or be retired early by our company) without putting a solid plan in place. However, another common faux pas is to forget about investing (and budgeting) until we retire. The sweet spot is to adopt a Thrive Budget now, so that we have money for fun, adventure, paying off our student loans, investing and charity. Waiting until after we pay off our student loans or until we get our credit cards paid off might take decades (or never happen at all). If we just pay 10% into tax-protected retirement accounts and earn a 10% gain, we can become a millionaire before we retire. It’s important to learn how to make money while we sleep, the way that financially free people do. Below are 9 tips to put us all on the right track for enjoying the present and the bonus years. If we start this plan now, even if we just started working, we can save thousands annually, and live a more rich and prosperous life, while also ensuring our retirement is golden. Adopt a Thrive Budget Be the Boss of Our Money Health Savings Accounts Pay Off Our Home Toss as Many Bills as We Can Out the Window Social Security Charitable Work & Contributions Continuing Education Rebalance Our Wealth Plan 1-3 Times a Year And here is more color on each point. Adopt a Thrive Budget Most of us will have less money to live on in retirement. If you’re getting close, figure out how much you will earn when you stop working by adding up your social security, pension, golden parachute and other passive income. If the amount is less than you earn now, you might have to figure out how to spend less in order to make ends meet. Getting smart and creative about this is a better idea than just downsizing everything without a multi-generational plan in place. When we adjust our basic needs expenditures to be half of what we earn (whether we’re working or retired), then we’ll have 50% of our income to invest, have fun, continue learning (perhaps new hobbies) and to donate to charity. Getting our basic needs down may seem impossible, especially in today’s inflationary world, until we learn the strategies that very wealthy people use to stop making everyone else rich and keep more of their money in the family. You can learn more about the Thrive Budget in The ABCs of Money, 5th edition. We also have a free Thrive Budget video coaching series on our YouTube.com/NataliePace channel. Email [email protected] if you’d like additional information. Be the Boss of Our Money One of the most important ways that we can start providing for our retirement and reducing our basic needs expenditures (particularly taxes) is to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school. We’ve all heard the term, “Pay yourself first,” and many of us are aware that billionaires pay less in taxes than the hourly workers they employ. It’s important to deposit that first 10% of what we earn into tax-protected retirement accounts where our investment gains can grow without capital gains taxes. Personal IRAs give us greater freedom of investment choice (allowing for better diversification) than employer-sponsored plans. So, consider matching what your employer will give into the 401k or RSP (free money), and put the remainder into health savings accounts and IRAs (Roth, SEP, or basic). There are a few other important tricks to taking ownership of our money that are outlined below. Health Savings Accounts Health savings accounts can:
We want to start early (as soon as we are off our parent’s plan) in order to really build it up and have the power of compounding gains work for us. HSAs work best if we are healthy, and if we are not constantly dipping into them for every expense. Think of them as another retirement account that will help us to have fewer health insurance bills and medical debt in retirement. Health care costs are the top reason that many seniors declare bankruptcy. Learn more at IRS.gov. Search for Health Savings Accounts. Two more tips: 1) Try to get your HSA through a brokerage, where you’ll have greater freedom of choice in your investments, and 2) Build up three years of total out-of-pocket costs in cash in your HSA before investing. Pay Off Our Home For most of us, the best plan is to align our mortgage payoff date with our retirement date. We’ll still have property taxes, maintenance and upkeep. However, if we can eliminate the mortgage, we’ll have a lot more money for fun and other unexpected expenses that can pop up. If we currently have a high interest rate on our mortgage, then consider refinancing when rates fall. Let our retirement date guide us on whether we get a 10, 15, or 30-year loan. Buying a home is highly correlated with wealth. The mean net worth of homeowners is nearly 10 times that of renters, at $1,530,900 versus $154,900 (source: Federal Reserve Board). However, over 20 million American homes were foreclosed on before, during and after the Great Recession (source: AttomData). It’s important to know what we’re doing, rather than just place ourselves in the hands of a real estate broker/salesman, whose livelihood depends upon selling us a home, even if we are buying high or purchasing something that is too expensive for our budget. We’re hosting a Real Estate Master Class online on Saturday, June 15, 2024. Whether you are thinking about buying, selling, downsizing, multi-generational housing, purchasing a home abroad, buying a time-share, or becoming an Airbnb host, get educated and develop the perfect blueprint before you commit to something that could cost a great deal of time and money, and perhaps even sink your FICO score. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to register and learn more. Toss as Many Bills as We Can Out the Window In the tips above, we’ve already learned how to stop making the taxman, the health insurance company, the landlord and the bank rich. Can we also toss other big-ticket bills out the window, such as our gasoline and utility bills? If we live in a sunny state and plan on staying in one place for the next few decades, then rooftop solar is a great way to save thousands on our utility bill annually ($150/month adds up to $1800/year). The payback time can be as quick as 4-7 years, with us earning the equivalent of a 15% yield on the investment for the next few decades – more if we’re powering our own electric vehicle and stop buying gas. Be sure to get your megawatt usage down as low as possible before getting the solar quote. Some ways to do this are to:
Most people spend almost $8,000/year on their car. Is it possible to downsize to one car (or no cars) for the family, and add in a few bikes or public transportation? Add up your car payment ($300/month = $3600/year), your insurance (is it close to your car payment?), your gasoline bill ($50/week = $2600), your annual maintenance (almost nothing, if you have an EV!), your parking and tickets (is it similar to your gas bill?). This sobering look at the cost of owning and operating a vehicle might inspire us to imagine what we’d love to spend $8,000 dollars each year on instead of making oil companies rich – such as a bucket list vacation, or helping our kids go to college or buy their first home. You can get other energy saving tips in my book The ABCs of Money, 5th edition, or in our Financial Freedom Retreats. Many attendees report learning how to save thousands annually at the retreat, something that more than pays for the cost of the education within a few short months. Social Security Apply early for your Social Security. It may take a few months to get everything set up, particularly as some people have to appeal to get the amount they are actually owed. Were you a stay-at-home parent for a portion of your career, and were married for at least a decade without getting remarried? If your Social Security is low because of that, you may qualify to receive a higher amount based upon your spouse’s (or ex’s) earnings. Also, factor in the amount of money you’ll lose by waiting until you are 72 to take your Social Security. Looking at this early (age 61) is a good idea, both to help plan your post-retirement Thrive Budget, and to determine whether or not getting a supplement to your income now (with the Social Security payment) might be a better choice than waiting. Charitable Work & Contributions We’ll want to have a passion project when we retire, and that project might actually end up being our next great chapter. When we give our time, talent and money, focusing on something we really care about improving in our community and world, we are working with people who have a common interest. Being around people we like is going to enrich our lives in many ways. The last three decades of my life have been dream-come-true living largely because my careers were born in charitable projects. So, focus on one project over a multi-year period, rather than just giving a little to a lot of different organizations. If we are tight on money, remember that we always have two other very valuable currencies in our wallet – time and talent. Our sweat equity could prove to be a lot more valuable than any check we might write. Continuing Education Education is the highest correlating factor with income. While we might not want another job in retirement, or might not need another degree, there will be something that we are interested in learning more about. If we’ve got our basic needs down to half of our retirement income, then we’ll have the funds for that cooking or painting class in Tuscany, for contributing to the grandkids’ college funds, for paying back our student loans, and for our Financial Freedom Retreat and Sustainability Adventures. Rebalance Our Wealth Plan 1-3 Times a Year As we age, we can’t afford the volatility of stocks. The rule-of-thumb is to always keep a percentage equal to our age safe, not subject to the Wall Street rollercoaster. Rebalancing 1-3 times a year ensures that:
In 2022, bonds lost more than stocks. The safe side (fixed income) isn’t supposed to put our principal at risk. So, in today’s Debt World, we have to know what we own, rather than have blind faith that someone else is protecting our future for us. With under 2% gains in 2023, the 2022 losses in long-term government bonds haven’t recovered. There remains heightened credit and duration risk. So, don’t place all of your hopes on an interest rate cut, as it doesn’t get rid of the other two reasons that bonds have been too risky for our safe side! For these reasons, we spend one full day on what’s safe in our Financial Freedom Retreats. You can learn and implement safe strategies at our Financial Freedom Retreat, or you can get an unbiased 2nd opinion from me personally through my private coaching. Email [email protected] for pricing and information. Bottom Line Many retirees get into trouble if they haven’t planned ahead, or if an unexpected challenge (often medical) comes up. Preparing in advance isn’t just retirement planning. It can lead us to save thousands every year, while building up hundreds of thousands (or more). The Thrive Budget is the money blueprint for a rich life. When our financial house is solid, there is a halo affect over everything in our world. Our FICO score rises. We can lower our student loan interest rate. We can use credit cards for the mileage, while eliminating any high-interest debt. And we can take a breather from working for a personal R&R reset that might be purchased with rewards and miles. This is a better life than living hand-to-mouth, both now and in retirement. Join us at our online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. Join us for our Online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by May 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. |
AuthorNatalie Pace is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, The ABCs of Money, The ABCs of Money for College, The Gratitude Game and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. She is a repeat guest & speaker on national news shows and stages. She has been ranked the No. 1 stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency, and has been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999. Archives
October 2024
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