Are We Headed for Another Crypto Winter?

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Are We Headed for Another Crypto Winter?
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Bitcoin’s high was $126,279.65 on Oct. 6, 2025. On Nov. 29, 2025, the coin was valued at about $91,000. That’s down -28%. Will bitcoin recover and soar even higher, or are we headed into another Crypto Winter?
 
During the last down cycle in 2022, bitcoin sank to $15,683 (on November 9, 2022). So, what is the crypto lover to do to profit and to protect oneself? Buy? Sell? Hold?
 
Here are the things we will cover in this blog.
 
Isn’t it better to just buy and hold?
Will crypto go up or down in 2026?
How often do Crypto Winters come around?
How long do Crypto Winters last?
Who does the selling at the high?
Is crypto being used as a currency?
A buy low, sell high system on autopilot
Capital gains taxes
Crypto scams
 
And here is more information on each topic
 
Isn’t it better to just buy and hold?
The trouble with buying and holding is that Crypto Winters can be very long and frigid. On November 9, 2021, crypto was at $69,000. It dropped to $15,000 by November 2022. Those kinds of losses, more than -75%, have serious consequences. At minimum, your FICO score plunges. When you’re worth $1,000,000, your FICO score and assets to debt might be in tiptop shape. If a year later your wealth has dropped to just $250,000, you might have a great deal more debt than money – and a lot of agents calling to collect. If you have borrowed money based on feeling super rich, whether it’s to purchase a house or sail around the world, banks and credit card companies don’t wait until crypto recovers to demand their payments.
 
This could put us in a real vise, where our debt starts compounding at a rate that could swallow us whole, even if crypto recovers. Finally, perhaps as a result of debt, leverage and the real-world losses that accompany having too much of them, we see mental health challenges in Crypto Winters, with some of them resulting in loss of life.
 
If you bought crypto in 2009, and you held it to today, you’ve made a great deal of money. If you bought it the all-time high and you sell now, you will lose a lot of money. What if there was a way that you could easily invest in the cryptocurrency of your choice, while also capturing gains when it hits an all-time high, and being prompted to buy low when it bottoms out? There is an easy plan that does this. Keep reading.
 
Will crypto go up or down in 2026?
If history holds true to form, 2026 will not be a great year for crypto. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the asset will follow the past trends. Here’s why.
 
In 2022, when stocks dropped -19.44%, crypto hit a low as well. The losses were -66% for bitcoin in 2022.

The 2022 Crypto Winter was part of a historical trend that is worth noting. The future doesn’t always look identical to the past, but it often at least rhymes. As I mentioned in my March 24, 2024 Investment of the Year blog (before bitcoin soared 85%), the bitcoin halving trend has happened three times now. So far, we’re holding true to the historic tendency, as you can see in the chart below.

The most recent bitcoin halving event was on April 19, 2024. As has happened in the three prior halving events, the price of bitcoin soared over the next year. The high was on October 6, 2025. However, another part of the cycle is that by the second year the price has plunged into a Crypto Winter. That might indicate that the current rout is not over yet.
 
Again, history doesn’t always repeat itself, which is why it’s better to use a time-proven system for capturing gains at the high and adding more at the low, rather than trying to market time things.
 
How often do Crypto Winters come around?
We’ve had Crypto Winters in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
 
How long do Crypto Winters last?
The average length of the Crypto Winter is about 2-3 years.
 
Who does the selling at the high?
This is the rather heartbreaking thing. While a lot of retail investors subscribe to buy and HODL, Wall Street whales just want to make a buck. So, typically, it’s the big money that is making all the profits by strategically selling high. Sadly, less-experienced traders often end up buying at peak prices before a market downturn – sold in by the hype and headlines, without doing the proper due diligence. This type of behavior is not limited to crypto, which is why our easy pie chart strategy helps with all investments.
 
Is crypto being used as a currency?
While some countries and companies will accept cryptocurrency, the use of crypto as a currency is very limited. The point of currency is to have something that’s going to be stable in value from day to day. As you can see in the chart above, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have wild fluctuations in their value. You can’t have a currency that is worth XYZ one month and less than half a few months later.
 
A buy low, sell high system on autopilot
After the devastating crypto cliff in 2022, crypto was the best performer of 2023 and 2024 by far, with gains of 167% and 116%, respectively. However, how many people bought bitcoin when it dropped to $15,000 on November 9, 2022? Sometimes people get so fed up with the losses that they sell low. (The cycle of emotions will almost always put us on the wrong side of the trade.)
 
That’s the trouble with not having a system. When bitcoin hits its highs, everybody thinks it’s going to a million, and when it drops to its low, either people don’t have any money to buy low or they don’t have the stomach for it, worried that it will just keep dropping even further. Most people don’t buy low because they can’t. They lose too much in the bear market.
 
Our pie chart strategy with 1-3 times a year rebalancing is very effective in helping retail traders and investors to make sure that they are capturing gains at the high, keeping that money and liquidity, which allows us (and actually prompts us) to buy low. This system takes the emotions out of our plan.
 
If we have a slice of bitcoin and the slice doubles, capture gains and trim it back to where it should be. That increases our wealth and we get to keep the money (and our FICO score). If the asset keeps going up, you can do it again. Conversely, if we’ve captured our gains and bitcoin plunges, the thinner slice is encouraging us to buy low (if we still believe in the investment).
 
Learn more about our time-proven, 21st Century investing system at the New Year New You Financial Freedom Retreat January 17-19, 2026. Email [email protected] to learn more and register now.
 
You can also check out our free web apps, where you can personalize your own pie chart. Just email [email protected] with Free Web Apps in the subject line.
 
Capital gains taxes
Crypto can be volatile. Fortunately, there are now ways that we can own bitcoin or ethereum in our tax protected, self-directed retirement account. This could take our capital gains exposure down to nothing. Be careful just searching online or asking AI how to do this. You might end up with the company that paid for prime placement, rather than the most creditworthy one. There are a few very important considerations before we purchase any fund. (I cover this at the Jan. 2026 retreat.)
 
Crypto scams
There are some crypto funds that are owned by creditworthy multibillion-dollar financial services companies, and there are crypto funds owned and operated by criminals. There are a great deal of scams in the crypto space. According to the FBI, over $9.3 billion was reported lost to crypto fraud in 2024. Since not everyone reports their losses, the actual amount is likely higher.
 
Bottom Line
As I indicated above, if the history of bitcoin halving events is true to form, 2026 will not be a very good year for cryptocurrencies. That is a guarantee. However, rather than trying to pick the exact moment to jump in or out, if we use our pie chart system, then the fluctuations of cryptocurrency can be something that prompts us to capture gains at the high, which increases our wealth and secures it – keeping us warm in Crypto Winters, instead of frozen and desperate.
 



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Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​

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Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
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Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.