Crystal Ball 2026

Crystal Ball 2026
 
Will stocks soar even higher? Will the safe havens gold and silver continue to rule the day? Will crypto join the party or head for a Crypto Winter? What about the other hot countries and hot sectors we’ve been leaning into? Are they still desirable? Should you continue to use value replacement funds? How can you get a safe income without paper losses? All this and more in my Crystal Ball 2026 blog.
 
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General Outlook: Optimistic Uncertainty with Notable Risks to the Downside
One of the most frequent phrases you’ll hear most economists say is that there is “a great deal of uncertainty” in their forecasts. It’s not that we don’t know what’s happening in the economy. It’s that there are so many factors that make up an economy, including consumer sentiment and especially consumer spending, which make predicting what the future will hold exceedingly problematic. For instance, we thought the economy was going to have a slow year in 2025. Stocks dropped -20% when tariffs hit the headlines in April. However, thanks to retail investors buying on the dip and artificial intelligence driving investments in data centers and energy, stocks roared to new highs, with gains of the S&P500 up 18.20% year to date. The entire world became excited about U.S. stocks, especially in breakthrough technology. (As an anecdote, an acquaintance who lives in Hong Kong loves investing in Tesla.)
 
Economic growth is expected to hit 1.7% this year and 2.3% in 2026. Productivity is up – a positive sign for economic growth. This will make sense to anyone who has used AI. A task that could take a full day can be shortened to an hour with the help of artificial intelligence. Though the promise of what AI holds is beyond the stars, so is the amount of energy needed to power it. So, many firms are burning through money for R&D and to buy up energy – pushing electric prices up. This elevates the risk of some AI crash and burn projects.
 
You’ve probably already heard about the K-shaped economy. While many Americans feel very constrained by their budgets and are taking on crushing debt, the rich keep getting richer. Stocks and real estate prices are at an all-time high. There are many economists who warn that the consequences of economic inequity, particularly with only a few companies (the Magnificent 7) driving market returns, exacerbated when equity prices are as elevated as they are today, heightens the risk of a severe and sustained downside. Having said that, the consensus is that 2026 will look better than 2025, at least in terms of GDP growth. At the same time, I sure hear the word bubble a lot.
 
I remind us that our best friend during uncertain times is an age-appropriate, properly diversified wealth plan that we rebalance at least once a year. If you don’t know exactly what you own and why, now is the time to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school and to be the boss of your money. No one cares about your money more than you do. You can read about this time-proven plan in my books, or learn and implement it at our Financial Freedom Retreats, or get an unbiased 2nd opinion from me personally through my private coaching. The sooner we learn the wealth secrets of the 1%, the faster our lives transform. (They are legal and available to us.)
 
Here are the things we will discuss in this blog. Most of the topics below have their own designated article, where I take the analysis deeper. So, be sure to click over to learn more.
 
Election Year Trends
Stocks
Artificial Intelligence, Magnificent 7 & Data Centers
Bonds
Bitcoin and Crypto
Gold and Silver
Oil and Gas
Clean Energy
Indonesia
Ireland
Australia
Peru
Real Estate
Commercial Real Estate
 
And here is more information on each topic.
 
Election Year Trends
As you can see in the chart below, mid-term years are typically the weakest in the election cycle.

2022 was a correction year for stocks, with technology and crypto performing quite miserably – far worse than the -19.44% drop in the S&P500.

Long-term government bonds lost even more than the S&P500 – prompting a spate of bank failures in early 2023. Our fixed income strategy has been earning a competitive income without the paper losses that abound in many conservative portfolios. This is VERY important, particularly as we get closer to retirement. (See the Bond section below.)
 
In 2018, the S&P500 lost -6.24%.
 
Stocks
Stocks are expensive. The slightest scare sparks a swift retreat. In April of 2025, many of the Magnificent 7 stocks were the worst performers, falling far farther than the S&P500, which dropped -20%. (This was the case in 2022 as well – the Magnificent 7 plunged, dragging everything down with it.)

It’s important to have large cap growth and another hot slice of technology, if we want our gains to keep up. At the same time, due to the volatility in these hot stocks, rebalancing and dollar cost averaging are also very important.
 
We are using value replacement funds for many reasons, including country diversification, with some countries offering a higher yield for less risk. Peru has been one of the best performing ETFs in 2025, with the bonus of a yield that is on par or better than a comparable U.S.-based value fund. See below for additional information.
 
Artificial Intelligence, Magnificent 7 & Data Centers
As I mentioned in my December 18, 2025, blog on Nvidia and data centers, AI is here to stay. For the Magnificent 7 multi-trillion-dollar companies, they are profitable in their other businesses, allowing them to invest heavily in the breakthrough technology and the energy required to power it all. For the younger leaders, including OPENAI and X-AI, the companies are burning through cash to a reported tune of $12 billion per company in 2025. Additionally, many of the companies are priced at valuations that make sense down the road rather than today. Elevated valuations are why C3 AI investors have lost 90% and also why Nvidia dropped to under $95/share in April of this year.
 
Creative disruption often starts with a bubble that pops – before the industry hits a 2nd phase when costs come down and adoption is widespread. As one example, the NASDAQ Composite Index plunged -78% when the Dot Com Bubble burst and took 15 years to recover. Now we have the Magnificent 7 companies leading Wall Street, with the highest valuations. Click on the blue-highlighted Nvidia above to learn more on AI. 

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Bonds
Certificates of Deposit are a lesson in futility. As interest rates get cut, the banks call the C.D.s, and we have to find another way of earning income. Money market funds are riskier than most people realize and typically get into trouble in recessions. The mantra for fixed income is, “Keep the terms short and the creditworthiness high.”
 
So, what is the best opportunity? Highly rated, short-term bonds purchased in the secondary market.
 
Email [email protected] for information on our Oct. 2025 Bond Masterclass, where all of this was outlined in depth. Register for the Jan. 17-19, 2026 Financial Freedom Retreat and receive free access to the Bond Masterclass recording.

​Bitcoin and Crypto
Will 2026 usher in another Crypto Winter? If the historical trend of halving events proves true, then it is possible that 2026 will be a terrible year for crypto. Bitcoin is down -30% from the highs set in early October. In the last Crypto Winter (2022), Bitcoin dropped -67%.

​However, rather than trying to pick the exact moment to jump in or out, if we use our pie chart system, then the fluctuations of cryptocurrency can be something that prompts us to capture gains at the high, which increases our wealth and secures it – keeping us warm in Crypto Winters, instead of frozen, financially distraught and desperate. We can even avoid capital gains taxes by investing in our tax-protected retirement accounts. Email [email protected] to join us at our Jan. ONLINE Financial Freedom Retreat to learn more.

Gold and Silver
Safe havens soared in 2025, except for crypto, which has struggled to return to the all-time high of $126,280, set on Oct. 6, 2025. Silver (our preferred safe choice!) was the superstar, ringing in returns of 164% in 2025 (as of Dec. 27, 2025), compared to gold’s 72.4%. Both are clearly impressive. Which precious metal will win in 2026? Or is the party over?

In the first phase of a stock market downturn, precious metals can be drug down. So, rebalancing, even in hot sectors, is still important. However, if investors lose their appetite for risky stocks due to losses, safe havens can look attractive again. As you can see in the 2022 performance chart above, silver and gold held strong.
 
With both metals at all-time highs, it’s a good idea to dollar cost average into a slice of your age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, and to have a strategy for capturing gains, due to the volatility.
 
Oil and Gas
Oil prices are expected to stay under $70/barrel in 2026. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles, particularly in the largest EV market, China, alongside uncertainty in the global economy and the work-from-home trend has resulted in weaker demand for gasoline. A supply glut is expected to be a problem in 2026, which could weaken prices further. According to the International Energy Agency, “surging supplies from the Middle East and the Americas are pointing to an untenable surplus of nearly 4 mb/d in 2026, making it increasingly clear that something has to give.”

​FYI: many oil companies are profiting from the production of plastic and polyester – which are both oil-based products (with significant environmental costs). ExxonMobil is consistently ranked as the top producer of resins for single-use plastics, with a heavy reliance on virgin plastic. Even more alarmingly, it is estimated that less than 5% of plastic gets recycled in the U.S. Microplastics and the toxic process of producing and recycling plastic mean that recycling plastic is not consistent with reducing toxicity in our water supply and CO2 pollution in our air. There’s no excuse for single-use plastic and it’s a good idea to dress in natural fibers instead of petroleum clothing. It’s time we realize that covering our bodies and food with oil products was never a good idea.
 
Clean Energy
Despite having the EPA gutted and tax credits wiped out in 2025 in the U.S., clean energy investors really cleaned up, with annual gains of 46% in the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF. That’s much higher than the Magnificent 7 and more than double the performance of the S&P500.
 

With energy demand for AI and data centers surging, and the trillion-dollar technology companies committed to a sustainable future with power generated from renewables, 2026 could be another banner year for clean energy.
 
Indonesia
Indonesia is expected to have one of the world’s highest GDP growths in 2026, at 4.8%. However, the recent civil unrest does add to the risk factors. (Remember that all stocks and funds carry risk, which is why we also need to keep a percentage equal to our age safe.) The protests affect foreign investment, deter investors and inhibit the Indonesian economy from performing at its potential. While the risk is higher with an investment in Indonesia, there are reasons to buy into the world’s largest exporter of nickel, and one of the fastest growing economies in the world, at 4.9% in 2026.
 
I’ll keep a close eye on this country, and plan to report more in the coming months. FYI: The iShares Indonesia ETF offers a yield of 3.5%. We use it as our mid cap value replacement fund.

Ireland
Ireland is a mecca for the Magnificent 7, biotech and agribusiness. The country lifted itself out of near bankruptcy in the Great Recession in grand style. Ireland’s GDP per capita is now the 3rd highest in the world (behind Liechtenstein and Luxembourg). GDP growth in 2026 is predicted to be tepid, at just 1.3%.
 
With the EIRL ETF trading at an all-time high, now could be a great time to capture gains and trim back. Having said that, technology, medicine and food will continue to be popular in 2026, so there is potential for an upside surprise and resiliency. I’m personally invested (but have captured gains). FYI: The iShares Ireland ETF offers a yield of 2.68%. We use it as our small cap value replacement fund.

Australia
As I mentioned in last year’s blog on Canadian and Australian banks versus their U.S. competitors, Australian banks tend to have higher credit quality and a higher yield. It is a rare instance where we are getting paid more to take on less risk.

The iShares Australia ETF (symbol: EWA) offers a yield of 3.16%, which is higher than most U.S. based large cap value funds. We use EWA as our large cap value replacement fund. Australia’s GDP growth is expected to be on par with the U.S. in 2026, at 2.1%. However, that comes with much lower debt to GDP, at 50% in Australia compared to 121% in the U.S.
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/SWE
 
Peru
Peru is the 2nd largest exporter of copper in the world. With copper prices at an all-time high, Peru’s economy is fortified. (If copper prices fall, the economy will weaken.) The IMF is expecting 2.7% GDP growth in Peru in 2026. Analysts are predicting that copper miners will not be able to meet demand next year, as technology and electric vehicles continue to have a ravenous need for the essential clean energy metal. Copper prices are expected to jump by up to 27% in 2026.

The iShares Peru ETF was one of the top performers in 2025, with gains of 86%. Here again, rebalancing with an eye to capturing gains, while remaining invested, can be a winning plan. I’ll publish an updated Copper Peru blog within the next week.

Real Estate
Real estate was one of the worst performers of 2025, with 2.51% gains in 2025, compared to 17.81% in the S&P500. Real estate is one of the reasons why we underweight U.S. value funds. Many REITs offer an above-market dividend. However, they also carry a great deal of debt, with many that are below investment grade, meaning we can lose principal on the investment. Due to the real estate market freezing up, many mortgage companies are losing money. Many builders saw revenue plunge year over year. Email [email protected] if you’d like updated mortgage and builders stock report cards.
 
When we lose our principal investment, we’re often placated with the term that they are only paper losses. However, those pesky “paper losses” that we’re told not to worry about, are rarely made up for by the small amount of income generated and are far more problematic than the phrase implies. Remember: the higher the dividend, the higher the risk.
 
Commercial Real Estate
The Retail Apocalypse continues. The K-shaped economy has taken its toll. In 2025, there were more than 700 bankruptcies, including Spirit Airlines, Claire’s and Rite Aid. Since almost 70% of the U.S. GDP is linked to consumer spending, this is a concern. The rich are still buying. However, Reuters is reporting that Saks Global (owner of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus) is weighing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, where the company will stay in business, but restructure their debt and equity. Typically, public shareholders get wiped out in bankruptcies. However, Saks Global is a private company.
 
We all still see a great deal of vacancies in the malls and business districts of our cities. This increases the risk for the banks and insurance companies that loan the CRE owners money, which increases the risk of our annuities and life insurance policies. This is one sector that could spark contagion in the financial system and tank stocks in 2026.
 
Bottom Line
The past few years have shown just how exciting and resilient the U.S. economy can be, with AI and data centers providing enough economic fuel to push stocks to an all-time high. At the same time, analysts are worried about a bubble, as there is a lot of historical precedence that when stock prices get this far away from the fundamentals, a correction can be swift and severe.
 
Again, our best protection against a downturn in stocks, which can drag down great companies in the rout, is to have enough on the sidelines – safe. A good rule of thumb is to always keep a percentage equal to our age safe – not invested in stocks or equities, and to diversify, including in a few hot sectors. In a Debt World, we must know what’s safe because we’re not getting paid to take on the ample credit and duration risks that abound, particularly in the U.S. Rebalancing regularly prompts us to capture gains at the high and stay on the right side of the trade.
 


Why not treat yourself to the gift of financial freedom to create a New Year, New Me in 2026?
Register now to join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat Jan. 17-19 2026 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget, invest in hot industries like AI, gold, crypto and more, and how to be in the best seat during our volatile Debt World. Register by Dec. 1, 2025 to receive the best price. Email [email protected] to learn more and register now.

If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Receive the best price when you register with friends and family for the ONLINE Financial Freedom Retreat Jan. 17-19 2026. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as cryptocurrency, Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 
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Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. ​

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If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.

Click through to the flyer to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Register with family and friends to receive the best price. Teens and college students can attend for just $99.

Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. Spring Equinox 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and four private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 6 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 65% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!

​Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
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Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.