Gold, Silver & Crypto. Are the Safe Havens Sinking?

Gold, Silver & Crypto. Are the Safe Havens Sinking?
 
 
                                               
The S&P 500 is down -7.2% on the year, and off -9.3% from the high of 7002 set on January 28, 2026. How are gold, crypto and silver holding up? Should you pile into these safe havens?
 
Here are the things we will cover in this blog.
 
What happens to safe haven investments in bear markets?
Who owns the most gold?
Why is silver outperforming gold ?
Why has silver dropped so much since Jan 29, 2026?
Are safe havens a good strategy against a downturn?
 
And here is more information on each topic.
 
What happens to safe haven investments in bear markets?
 
Gold & Silver
Gold and silver are precious metals. The price tends to run with investor sentiment. When the world is swooning over stocks, the safe havens can be left behind. When equity prices plunge, initially everything can go down, including gold and silver. There typically comes a point, however, when the precious metals decouple and start soaring.
 
In the Great Recession, gold and silver suffered, initially. In 2008, gold was down -9.4% on the year, while the S&P 500 lost -38.5%. Both gold and silver hit their all-time highs (of that period) in September 2011, after S&P Global downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA plus.
 
However, the 2011 highs were very short-lived. For the decade between 2012 and the pandemic, gold and silver plunged again, with losses of over -45%. It’s important to know that the safe havens can go down in value quite suddenly and stay there for a while. Between 1980 and 2005, there was a 26-year period of gold prices in the $250-$450/ounce range, after hitting a high of $800/ounce in January of 1980.
 
Having an age-appropriate, properly diversified plan and using gold or silver as one or two hot slices, combined with 1-3 times a year rebalancing, will help to keep us on the right side of the trade.
 
The bottom line is that gold and silver can perform better in corrections and bear markets, but they are also volatile. It’s not a good idea to go all in, especially when gold fever is raging.
 
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has two historical trends that play against it performing well in 2026. The first one is that when stocks plunge, bitcoin tends to cave in even further. That happened in spades in 2022. The S&P 500 lost -19.44%. Bitcoin lost -67%.

The other historical trend that plays against good performance in 2026 is the halving trend. I have been warning about this repeatedly in my Bitcoin blogs. (Click to access the most recent one from Nov. 30, 2025.)
https://www.nataliepace.com/blog/are-we-headed-for-another-crypto-winter#/
 
2026 could see a Crypto Winter that doesn’t end until mid or late 2027.
 
Copper
Copper is often referred to as Dr. Copper because when the economy weakens, copper prices are usually the first to plunge. Supply is a little constrained, while demand is very hot right now. So, there is a supply/demand case where copper prices remain elevated. Copper prices peaked at $6.58/pound in January of 2026 and are still high at $5.50/pound.
 
However, in recessions, government and institutional projects get canceled and the demand for copper evanesces. That, of course, would affect the price of copper adversely, as well as one of our favorite ETFs, the Peru ETF (symbol: EPU). Peru is the 2nd largest exporter of copper in the world. Its economy is very heavily tied to copper prices.
 
Who owns the most gold?
The U.S. has the most gold by far, followed by worldwide gold ETF investors, and then the European countries. China, Brazil and India have been increasing their gold holdings, while Russia has had to sell some gold. Check out the Top 10 holders of gold as of March 2026 in the chart below.

Source: Gold.org.

Why is silver outperforming gold?
As you can see in the chart below, silver has been the superstar over the three- and five--year periods. Peru and clean energy have done better than gold year to date.
 

Silver started out the most recent cycle with a price that was subdued. We were leaning into silver instead of gold for that reason thinking that silver would attempt to catch up to its former high, and that would reward investors more than an investment in gold. That turned out to be the case.
 
Typically, when investors lose faith in economies and stocks, they like both gold and silver. I’m still leaning into silver because the price is more palatable, especially for younger investors who might have to ease into their holdings.
 
Why has silver dropped so much since Jan 29, 2026?
Silver soared to an all-time high of $121.79/ounce on Jan. 29, 2026. The price stayed in that range for about three days and then settled back into the $70-$80/ounce range. This is a reminder that in the short run, stocks are a popularity contest. In the long run, things typically settle back into their supply/demand and longer-term trends.
 
When we are fortunate enough to be on the winning side of a viral moment, it’s important to capture gains! It’s a reminder of just how effective rebalancing 1-3 times a year can be, and why it is important to take the data off the brokerage statement and put it into the pie chart format. That way, we are making choices based upon a time-proven system, rather than emotions – which tend to put us on the wrong side of the trade.
 
Bottom Line
Are safe havens a good strategy against a downturn?
Yes, but only when incorporated into a time-proven, age-appropriate, properly diversified system that includes rebalancing and capturing gains. (Click to take our Rebalancing IQ Test.) Gold, silver and crypto are volatile – far more freewheeling than the name “safe haven” implies.

We are currently using one or two slices of silver in our sample pie charts. However, I also just hosted a Rebalancing Masterclass (Jan. 10, 2026), where we were all reminded that stocks (including silver and Peru) were at an all-time high -- a perfect opportunity for capturing, and keeping, gains.  
 
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Are you aware that the hot funds we've been featuring in our sample pie charts and retreats performed at the top of Wall Street in 2025? Silver tripled. Peru (copper) was on fire with over 100% gains. Even clean energy scored 55%... 

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Photo by Marie Commiskey. Natalie Pace at the Ritz Carlton in Ireland.

Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of The ABCs of Money for College are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
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Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.