Ireland. Rich in Tech, Biotech and Agribusiness.

Natalie Pace in Powerscourt, Ireland. Photo by Marie Commiskey.

​Ireland. Rich in Tech, Biotech and Agribusiness.
 
Ireland has just 5.3 million people, yet the country is the European home of technology giants such as Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, and biotechnology leaders, including Johnson & Johnson, Regeneron, Gilead and Pfizer. The influx of companies looking for an English-speaking country with a footprint in the U.K. and Europe, particularly post-BREXIT, has pushed the GDP per capita (person) of Ireland to the 3rd highest in the world, behind Luxembourg and Switzerland. By example, the GDP/capita of the U.S. and Canada are 86.6 thousand and 53.83 thousand, respectively, compared to Ireland’s 103.5 thousand.
 
Due to the high GDP growth, low debt and strong presence of multinational enterprises (MNEs), we’ve listed Ireland as a hot country for years in our Financial Freedom Retreats. Will the Irish economy be as hot in 2025 and going forward as it was in 2021 and 2022, when its GDP growth was an impressive 16.3% and 8.6%, respectively (higher than China’s 8.4% and India’s 11.7% in 2021)? The iShares MSCI Ireland ETF is currently trading near an all-time high. Is now a great time to capture gains, or will Ireland continue higher, on the strength of the Magnificent 7 U.S. mega-cap companies?
 
Below are some of the topics we’ll cover in this blog.
 
Economic Outlook
Strengths
Risks
Headwinds
 
And here is more information on each point.
 
Economic Outlook
Ireland experienced magnificent GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 on the strength of both the technology and biotechnology industries. However, in 2023, the economy contracted -5.5%, and 2024 is expected to see another minor contraction of under -2%. Fitch is forecasting a recovery in 2025, with GDP growth of 3.5% annually for 2025 and 2026. S&P Global’s prediction is for 2.1% annual growth between 2025 and 2027. The developed Western World is expected to experience GDP growth in the range of 1-3%, with China at 4.5%, and many of the underdeveloped nations growing the fastest – particularly Africa, India and Indonesia. Argentina is also expected to perform well in 2025, with expectations of 5% GDP growth.
  
Strengths
Ireland has many things going for it these days. The country is raking in tax revenue from MNEs. Ireland recently received a tax windfall from Apple in the amount of €14.1 billion. That gives the Irish economy a fiscal surplus, at a time when many countries are running deficits, including Canada, China, Europe and the U.S. Ireland’s debt to GDP is 43.3%. Fitch Ratings and S&P Global give Ireland an AA credit rating.

Many, but not all, of the Magnificent 7 companies have an EU base in Ireland. Nvidia and Tesla are based elsewhere.

​As a result of maximum employment and a high GDP per capita, household savings is steady, while domestic savings are high. The economy is diversified across the technology, biotechnology, financial services and agrobusiness industries. Inflation is below 2% (at 1.7%) and is expected to remain in this target range, according to S&P Global.
 
Risks
According to S&P Global, in their ratings review report of Nov. 15, 2024, “Ireland's multinational sector is vulnerable to deglobalization risks, and more broadly will remain volatile so that small changes at the few very large tech and pharmaceutical entities based in Ireland will have a disproportionate effect on economic and fiscal indicators.” That is what happened in 2023, when the biotechnology industry weakened, after a few years of pandemic-related overperformance.
 
Empty office buildings and commercial real estate is another downside risk for the Irish economy, even as it is the bugaboo of many countries. Vacancies are up and prices are down. The Central Bank of Ireland published a special CRE feature of their Financial Stability Review in June 2024, writing, “The Irish CRE market has experienced a 27 per cent fall in valuations, with the possibility that further falls may lie ahead.” Since CRE lending has plunged from 1/3 to 1/10 of Irish bank loans, the Central Bank posits that banks have the ability to “absorb” rather than “amplify” a CRE shock. Non-bank lenders, including insurance companies, pensions, real estate companies and hedge funds, are more vulnerable than banks in Ireland and in the rest of the developed world.
 
Because Ireland is such a small country, a shift in the strength of the U.S. and multinational technology and biotechnology industries will have an outsized, negative effect on the Irish economy and growth rates.
 
Headwinds
“Deglobalisation and new trade restrictions among major economies could significantly affect the small, open Irish economy,” according to a Fitch Ratings review of Nov. 15, 2024. Tariffs and the rise of nationalism could have a negative impact on Ireland, particularly in its exports.
 
Bottom Line
Investing in a small country with fewer residents than the metro population of Los Angeles, California does come with a risk. Weakness in the multinational companies or industries that have made Ireland so rich can make the country’s GDP soar and sink year by year, as witnessed with the wild gyrations between 2021 and 2024. At the same time, Ireland’s sound fiscal policy for saving and investing its fiscal surpluses, at a time when many countries are still borrowing to fund their domestic agenda and services, are positive. As Fitch Ratings summarized in its Nov. 2024 report, “Ireland has a prudent domestic fiscal framework designed to mitigate risks from the large and highly-concentrated windfall corporate tax revenue.”
 
At the same time, the iShares MSCI Ireland ETF (symbol: EIRL) is trading close to a 5-year high. If you are using our nest egg pie chart system and your Irish slice is oversized or has become two slices, year-end is a great time to do our rebalancing and capture gains. If you’d like to learn more about our highly acclaimed, easy, time-proven investing and budgeting strategies, email [email protected] with Pie Chart System Information in the subject line.
 


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Join us for our Online New Year, New You Financial Freedom Retreat Jan. 10-12, 2025. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.

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Natalie Pace in an Irish pub learning how to pour a proper Guiness Stout.

Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.