Oil Prices Soar. Stocks Sink. The War Rages On.

Graphic by MetaAI.

Oil Prices Soar. Stocks Sink. The War Rages On.
 
Oil prices are soaring.
Stocks are sinking.
The war rages on.
How do you protect your wealth?

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Oil prices are skyrocketing. The Qatar minister is warning that oil prices could go as high as $150 a barrel. That could be the beginning of a very severe recession, if the war is prolonged. A brief war could see oil prices tumble back to the $58-65/barrel range. Check out the chart below, and  you’ll see that recessions (the grey lines) are highly correlated with sky-high petrol prices.

Many of us forget (some of us never knew) that the last all-time high for oil was in July of 2008, right before the Financial Crisis and Great Recession. (It wasn’t officially announced until Oct. of 2008.) Since almost 70% of the US economy is made up of consumer spending, when we drain all the money in our budget out at the gas pump, we don’t have much left over for other spending. That hits companies very hard. The airline and auto manufacturing industries are usually the first to implode, and it certainly won’t help the frozen housing industry. General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy in 2009. 13 airlines failed in 2008, after another spate of bankruptcies after 911.
 
So, which companies will win and which will lose?
 
Here are the things we’ll cover in this blog.
 
Oil
Defense
Auto Manufacturers
Airlines
Housing
Flight to Tesla and EVs?
Crypto
Gold/Silver
What’s Your Best Strategy?
And here is more information on each point. Email [email protected] if you’d like us to send you stock report cards on Airlines, Oil, Defense or Auto Manufacturers.
 
Oil
With oil prices at $90.90/barrel (WTI), after hitting a low of $57/barrel on Dec. 15, 2025, you might think a bet on Chevron or ExxonMobil is a great idea. However, there are a few macro trends to consider.
 

• High oil prices are highly correlated with recessions. Chevron’s share price dropped almost 30% (from $99/share to $70/share) between August 2008 and Sept. 2009. Oil prices plummeted from a high of $145/barrel on July 3, 2008, to a low of $35/barrel by Dec. 19, 2008. During the pandemic, the price went negative (to -37.63/barrel). Futures traders were selling at a loss so that they didn’t have to take possession of oil they had no place to store.
• Demand for gasoline has been weakening as consumers opt for electric vehicles worldwide.
• Prices are at or near their all-time high. (The adage is buy low, sell high, not buy high and hope to sell higher.)

 
Why are oil prices rising in the US?
The United States has been an annual net total energy exporter since 2019 (source: EIA.gov).
 

However, the U.S. still imports a lot of crude oil. When we fight a war in the Middle East, we do not use our own oil. We buy locally, from OPEC and Saudi Arabia. Understandably, the OPEC and Saudi Arabia trade deficits peaked during the wars with Afghanistan and Iraq. Since 2007, U.S. imports of crude oil have dropped dramatically. In 2020, 2023, 2024 and 2025, there was a U.S. trade surplus with Saudi Arabia (source: USTR.gov).

​

Oil and gas are actively traded around the world. So, when the price of oil in Europe rises (Brent), so will oil and gas prices in the U.S. (WTI).
 
Defense
Defense companies are in favor, with many of the well-known companies setting new 5-year highs recently, including Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Elbit Systems. RTX Corp. and Huntington Ingalls. If the current conflict becomes a protracted war, then the companies might support the high price-earnings ratios of their stock. If the fighting ceases, will there be enough investor support to keep elevated prices from falling?
 
Additionally, war means high oil prices, which could spark a recession.
 
Be careful buying high. If you got into defense before 2026, then you might be quite happy with that call. Capturing gains at an all-time high could make you even happier. The defense industry tends to have slow growth, low profit margins, high debt and low credit ratings. Northrop Grumman, RTX Corp., Textron, Huntington Ingalls and Boeing are all rated in the BBB range – at the lowest rung of investment grade.
 
Auto Manufacturers
Auto manufacturers were already showing signs of stress – before the War in Iran. Stellantis and Ford Motor Co. lost billions in 2025, as the EV price wars heated up – -$8.2 billion for Ford and an eyepopping -$26.3 billion for Stellantis. Tesla’s net profit was $7 billion – less than half of what the company made in 2023.
 
One more point: a lot of investors are chasing income and high-yield. Stellantis had a yield of 7.20% before the dividend was suspended on Feb. 6, 2026. A gap down in share price occurs concurrently (before you can sell). Stellantis investors have lost almost -40% since January. They will lose even more if the company is downgraded to junk. (Stellantis has a BBB- credit rating with a negative outlook.)
 
Investors who are employing our safe strategies are earning a market yield with no paper losses. We spend one full day discussing this at our Financial Freedom Retreats. I also cover this in my private coaching. Email [email protected] to learn more.  

​Airlines
On Feb. 10, 2026, the Energy Information Administration issued their short-term energy outlook, projecting that oil prices would “decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $58 per barrel (b) in 2026 and $53/b in 2027.”
 
It’s understandable that airlines are not hedging their fuel costs. If the War in Iran is over quickly, that will be a good bet. If not, the results could be disastrous. Airlines are another industry with squeezed profit margins, massive debt and leverage and low credit quality. Some airlines, including United, Alaska, American and JetBlue are in the junk bond category.
 
Housing
As you can see in the performance chart below, real estate was one of the worst sectors in 2025.
 

​Unaffordability remains a challenge, as you can see in the ATTOMDATA chart below. (Click to access their full blog.)
 

When housing costs take up too much of the budget, would-be home buyers can’t qualify for a mortgage. Could the best opportunity be lying in plain sight? We’re happy to offer access to the Real Estate masterclass recording to anyone who registers for the Financial Freedom Retreat. (Just request this with your registration.) Email [email protected] to learn more.

​Commercial real estate remains one of the most vulnerable areas of the economy, negatively impacting banks, insurance companies, pensions and other long-term investors.
 
Flight to Tesla and EVs?
Ford and Stellantis have lost billions trying to compete in the electric vehicle market, which is dominated by Chinese EV makers. China is the biggest EV market in the world. Both companies announced that they would shift away from a focus on EVs to “consumer demand.” However, the last time that oil and gas prices jumped, consumers raced to energy efficiency and gas guzzlers were left in the dust. Toyota’s Prius – the 1st major hybrid in the U.S. – was named Car of the Year in 2004. By 2009, GM and Chrysler were bankrupt, and Ford only narrowly averted the same outcome.
 
All auto manufacturers struggle in recessions. However, the preference for EVs remains strong, which gives Tesla a slight edge. Having said that, Tesla is one of the most expensive stocks on Wall Street. Should a company with only $7 billion in net profit, that is losing revenue year over year, be valued at $1.5 trillion?
 
Crypto
Bitcoin is down by almost half from its Oct. 26, 2025, high of $126,280 (-46.4%). Crypto lovers have been hoping that The Clarity Act bill would help their struggling positions to recover. However, aggressive lobbying by banks and current war have this legislation stalled out.
 
When I named Bitcoin as the Investment of the Year in March of 2024, I also noted that if historical trends proved true, the high would be in 2025, followed by a Crypto Winter in 2026. (This prediction has proven to be prescient.) Crypto tends to plummet in recessions. In 2022, the S&P500 dropped -19.44%. Bitcoin lost -67%. For all these reasons, we encourage using crypto as a hot slice in our pie chart system, which prompts us to capture gains at the high and buy at the low.

HODL cryptophiles are preyed upon by Wall Street whales who use the capture gains strategy. Why not profit from the rules of the rich?  

Gold/Silver
Gold and silver can be drug down in a Wall Street rout, especially in the early stages. There will come a time when the stock losses are too severe, and investors flee to safe havens. At that point, a decoupling occurs and precious metals’ investors are rewarded. In the most recent downturn (2022), silver and gold held strong. Silver was one of our super performers in 2025, tripling in value!

What’s Your Best Strategy?
Our best strategy in hard times is to make sure that we have an age-appropriate, properly diversified wealth plan in place, and to ensure that we know what is safe in a Debt World. Our time-proven 21st Century pie chart system earned gains in the Dot Com and Great Recession and has outperformed the bull markets in between. People in our community were emailing me with gratitude during the pandemic, knowing that their wealth was protected from the -35% drop in stocks that happened before the first COVID-19 lockdown (in California on March 19, 2025).
Remember: when we wait for the headlines before taking action, we’ll always be late. Stocks are still very close to their all-time highs. A prolonged war, which means high oil prices, puts a recession on the table. It’s better to be early and prepared, rather than a day late and a dollar short. Now is the time to know exactly what we own and why, rather than having blind faith that:

• Someone or something (our money manager, annuity or target date retirement fund) is protecting our wealth  
• HODL is the best strategy. It’s not in a world where it can take 6-15 years to recover from losses, such as occurred in the Great Recession and the Dot Com Recession.
• You can just Buy the Dip. Most people don’t buy low because they can’t buy low. They lose too much in the recession because they weren’t properly protected and diversified. An age-appropriate, properly diversified wealth plan that is rebalanced 1-3 times a year works much better.

Chart by MSN.com. (c) Microsoft. Used with permission.

Bottom Line
It’s not too late to protect our wealth. I’m seeing a lot of headlines encouraging everyone to Buy & Hope. However, 21st Century recessions have been severe and long lasting, as you can see in the charts below. If you wait for the headline that we’re in a recession, you’ll be closer to the bottom. Selling then would be locking in losses and financial chaos or personal hardship. It’s always important to capture our gains, maintain our credit score and keep our wealth intact, and to have a time-proven wealth plan in place to achieve that goal. Wisdom is the cure.

"Many people, including educated men and women, often get into trouble when they neglect to follow simple and fundamental rules of the type provided [by Natalie]. This is why I recommend them with enthusiasm." Professor Gary S. Becker. Dr. Becker won the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics for his theories on human capital

Are you aware that the hot funds we've been featuring in our sample pie charts and retreats performed at the top of Wall Street in 2025? Silver tripled. Peru (copper) was on fire with over 100% gains. Even clean energy scored 55%... 

Why not treat yourself to the gift of financial freedom to create a New Year, New Me in 2026?
​
Register now to join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat April 24-26, 2026 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget, invest in hot industries like AI, gold, crypto and more, and how to be in the best seat during our volatile Debt World. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. (Ask for access to a recording of our Real Estate, Bond or Rebalancing masterclass as our gift to you.) Email [email protected] to learn more and register now.

If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as cryptocurrency, Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 
​​
Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. ​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM
​​
"Many people, including educated men and women, often get into trouble when they 
neglect to follow simple and fundamental rules of the type provided [by Natalie]. 
This is why I recommend them with enthusiasm." 
Professor Gary S. Becker. Dr. Becker won the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics for his theories on human capital

"College students need this information before they get their first credit card. Young adults need it before they buy their first home. Empty nesters can use the information to downsize to a sustainable lifestyle, before they get into trouble." 
Joe Moglia, former Chairman & CEO, TD AMERITRADE.


If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.

Click through to the flyer to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Teens and college students can attend for just $99.

Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. Spring Equinox 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and four private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 6 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 65% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now.

Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of The ABCs of Money for College are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
​​​​
Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​

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Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast and watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
​
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.