Tesla Vision vs. Waymo LiDAR vs. Air Taxis. LiDAR (Waymo) vs. Tesla Vision. Which is safer? What about Uber and Lyft? How will these companies fare when robotaxis become de rigueur? Will we all be flying around in our personal rocket cars, making all of the above obsolete? Email [email protected] if you would like for us to send you updated Magnificent 7* and Uber stock report cards. * Magnificent 7: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla Tesla stock has been rallying of late, partly due to Elon Musk leaving Washington D.C. and returning to Tesla, but also because of reports (by Elon Musk) that the Tesla Model Y has been testing self-driving in Austin, Texas. Tesla share price is up 43.8.% from the low it hit on April 17, 2025, of $241/share. At $346.46/share it’s also still down -29.1% from the high of $488.54/share set on December 13, 2024. While everyone is focusing on politics, FSD*, robotaxis and robots, Tesla faces price wars and fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers, apart from any impact from tariffs, as I indicated in my blog last month (click on Tesla to access). Chinese competition is having a very negative impact on Tesla. In the 1st quarter of 2025, revenue growth was down -9.23% from the same quarter in 2024. 2024‘s net income was cut in half, down to $7.13 billion, compared to $15 billion in 2023. However, at the same time the Tesla model Y is still the top-selling SUV in the world (of any kind, not just electric vehicles). *Full Self-Driving However, Chinese competition is not the only headwind for Tesla. A lot is riding on the potential market for Tesla’s FSD and robotaxis. With the price earnings ratio of 197, good news is baked in years down the road. So, if there is any near-term snafu, or God forbid more fatal crashes, the volatility that we have seen in Tesla’s share price could come back to haunt investors. Waymo Vs. Tesla’s Robotaxi The main competitor for robotaxis is Waymo. (Click if you’d like to see my personal ride in Waymo on December 1, 2024, which I posted on my Instagram profile. For research purposes, I take Waymo frequently in Santa Monica, California.) Waymos are being vandalized and people who live close to the charging station are constantly filing complaints with their city council, seeking to shut it down. As with many disruptive products, robotaxis are not very popular or widespread, even though, so far, at least the Waymos seem to be safe. So, imagine the problems that ensue when a vehicle is involved in any sort of horrible accident. After General Motor’s Cruise robotaxi seriously injured a pedestrian on Oct. 2, 2023, the CEO was sacked and the entire project was scrapped. And that leads me to the conversation about LiDAR, which is the basis of Waymo‘s technology versus Tesla Vision. Fortunately, you won’t have to read a series of quotes from experts. You can see it for yourself. Mark Rober, a former NASA engineer, did a 6-part test of Waymo versus Tesla self-driving technology to see which would score highest in a series of six challenges. I encourage you to watch the video starting at about the eighth minute. So, which car was Wile E. Coyote and which was the Roadrunner? Rober’s entertaining video clearly shows LiDAR’s superior performance. However, it’s not just a test; the problematic performance has been also proven in the real world. It has been reported by Forbes that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has confirmed 44 fatalities and hundreds of non-fatal crashes involving Tesla’s FSD software. In Tesla’s 1Q 2025 Vehicle Safety Report, the company writes, “Accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, like reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.” Tesla points out that their self-driving application is still far better than the U.S. average. Click to see the Safety Report where Tesla’s autopilot is calculated at over seven million miles driven before an accident, whereas the national average is under one million. Cost vs. Safety Two of the advantages that Tesla Vision has over LiDAR (at this point) are cost and longitudinal data. According to Tesla, more than nine billion miles have been driven with Autopilot engaged. Of course, as LiDAR costs come down, that could be less of an issue. However, that “advantage” factors in only the simple math. One non-fatal pedestrian incident wiped out the entire General Motors Cruise project. While we don’t hear a lot about the FSD problems for Tesla, and they may be downplayed, delayed or buried as long as the Tesla CEO is tight with the Administration, it’s pretty hard to imagine that Tesla’s robotaxis are going to save the day using technology that has proven to be quite problematic to date. Uber, Lyft, Robotaxis and Air Taxis Rideshare drivers are likely to be up in arms about the idea of people using taxi services that don’t require a driver. There are a lot of people relying upon that rideshare income. Despite the threat, Uber and Lyft managed to show increased revenue year over year in the most recent quarter. However, robotaxis are only being rolled out in a few markets at this time. San Francisco, Santa Monica, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas are some of the few places Waymos can be taken. Meanwhile, anyone who has ever tried to get to the theater in Manhattan or from the west side to downtown in Los Angeles, or practically any city during rush-hour, are keenly aware of the frustrations of gridlock. We are seeing positive signs that air taxis are moving forward, with a potential for certification from the FAA over the next year for Joby and Archer Aviation. (Click to read my blog on Air Taxis.) The forward momentum of air taxis is not enough to disrupt taxis (and helicopters) today. However, will they be more mainstream by the L.A. Olympics? (Archer Aviation is the official air taxi of the 2028 L.A. Olympics,) Robotaxis aren’t completely disrupting Uber and Lyft yet, largely due to all of the testing that must be done to ensure safety. However, investors are valuing Tesla at $1.13 trillion when the company only made $7 billion last year and reported less revenue in the most recent quarter. The very lofty valuation (outlandish?) is the key source of the volatility in Tesla’s share price. Should Tesla be worth more than two times the value of Toyota, GM and Ford combined? Bottom Line It’s hard to bet against a CEO who has had such amazing feats at Tesla and SpaceX. Elon Musk is known for making outlandish proclamations and then finding a way to actually achieve them. Being the richest man in the world, worth a reported $432 billion, according to Forbes, certainly helps his aspirations. Disrupting the ICE* industry was no small feat. However, for Main Street investors who are holding onto shares hoping that they will go higher because everyone will own an Optimus in the future or will be receiving a 2nd income from the rides their Tesla offers autonomously, it is important to separate the hyperbole from reality. *Internal Combustion Engine Tesla is overpriced. It’s priced for what the potential could be with robotaxis and Optimus years down the road. Both products could eventually come to market in a big way, assuming there haven’t been fatalities that completely scrap the autonomous taxi project. However, between now and those cyber halcyon days, there is likely to be a great deal of share price volatility, from the ebb and flow of safety checks and rollouts, fierce worldwide competition and from any economic slowdown. (The auto industry struggles when the economy slows down.) We’ve seen this in spades over the past months and years. Tesla has zigzagged between a high of $488 and a low of $167 over the past five years. In 2022, the stock sank by -67%. In April 2025, it was worth half of what it was in December 2024. That can be positive if you’re on the right side of the trade, as whales tend to be, and quite a stomachache if you’re attempting to buy and hold or purchasing high on headlines. If you’ve made a boatload investing in Tesla, now might be a great time to capture gains and consider dollar-cost averaging into a Magnificent 7 hot slice that has some Tesla in it, such as the iShares Self-Driving EV & Technology fund (symbol: IDRV). Join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget and how to hedge in a volatile Debt World. The following Saturday on June 14, 2025, at our Real Estate Master Class. you'll discover the 10-point checklist for home buyers and sellers, as well as some overlooked areas of opportunity. If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. Your friends and family can get the best price for the Financial Freedom Retreat June 6-8 2025 when they register together. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. Learn how to: * Invest in hot industries, such as Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, * Hedge against a weaker dollar, * Invest and compound your gains, * Green your retirement plan, * Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, * Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto), * Evaluate stocks, * Avoid capital gains and financial predators, * Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and, * Know what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information. ![]() Visit NataliePace.com to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. ![]() Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and eight private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 8 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 70% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now! ![]() Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Archer Aviation is Chosen to be the Exclusive Air Taxi Service for the 2028 L.A. Olympics. Company of the Year? USA Downgraded. Is U.S. Reserve Currency Status Threatened? Utilities: In the Eye of the Natural Disaster Storms. Aging Mom Doesn't Want to Discuss Dilapidated House. Investors Ask Natalie. Sell in May? Tesla, Tariffs, Chinese Competition and Price Wars. Fun Ways to Celebrate Earth Day April 22nd. Will the Correction Become a Bear Market? 21st Century Recessions Look More Like Depressions. Will Oil Prices Sink or Soar? Executives are Uncertain. Health Savings Accounts. Save Thousands. Get a Tax Credit. Provide for Tomorrow's Healthcare Needs. Restormel Manor House 2025. A Truly Royal and Magical Adventure. 9 Ways to Cut Your Tax Bill in Half and Save Thousands Annually. Berkshire Hathaway. Should I Just Invest in Warren Buffett? Should I Have a Money Manager? The Cleanest Cities in the World. Can Altadena, Pacific Palisades and Gaza Become Edens? Rebuilding Gaza. American Companies Will Benefit. Top Dividend/Income Strategies for 2025. 2025 Crystal Ball: Who Will be the Superstars of Wall Street? Gold & Crypto IRAs and the Risk of Fraud and Losses. 10 Rules of Successful Investing. Quantum Computing. Paper Losses. Another Warning About Long-Term Bonds! 2025 Investor IQ Test. 2025 Investor IQ Test Answers. Apple iPhone Sales Plunge in China. Indonesia: Rich in Nickel with Ambitions of Becoming an EV Battery Hub. RoboTaxis. AI. The Magnificent 7. Charitable Giving. Nonprofits that are Worthy of Supporting. Why Are So Many Safe Investments Losing Money? A Bargain-Priced AI Company. Canadian, Australian and U.S. Banks. Are Any of Them Safe? Ireland. Rich in Technology, Biotechnology and Agribusiness. Robo Investing and AI. No, They are Not Foolproof. Stocks Soar as Nvidia Joins the DJIA. Copper. Peru ETF Outperforms the S&P500. Will Insurance Companies & Homeowners Weather the Hurricanes? 9 Money Secrets of the Ultra Wealthy. Housing & Budgeting Solutions. Arkansas Sues Temu for Data Theft. We Must Be the Boss of Our Money. Why? Fast Fashion. Fossil Fuels. Plastic Clothing. Atacama Desert Waste Dumps. Can Crowdstrike Recover from its Colossal Catastrophe? Featuring a Cybersecurity Overview. Fintechs and Brokerages that Fail are Not FDIC-Insured. 5 Green Tips for Clean Beaches Week. So, You Think You Want to Be a B&B Owner... Retiring Soon? Start Planning Now. 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Rebalancing IQ Test. 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
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AuthorNatalie Pace is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, The ABCs of Money, The ABCs of Money for College, The Gratitude Game and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. She is a repeat guest & speaker on national news shows and stages. She has been ranked the No. 1 stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency, and has been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999. Archives
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