Tesla Vision vs. Waymo LiDAR vs. Air Taxis.

Waymo's Robotaxi.

Tesla's Robotaxi.

Archer Aviation's Air Taxi.

Tesla Vision vs. Waymo LiDAR vs. Air Taxis.
LiDAR (Waymo) vs. Tesla Vision. Which is safer? What about Uber and Lyft? How will these companies fare when robotaxis become de rigueur?
Will we all be flying around in our personal rocket cars, making all of the above obsolete?
Email [email protected] if you would like for us to send you updated Magnificent 7* and Uber stock report cards.

* Magnificent 7: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla
 
Tesla stock has been rallying of late, partly due to Elon Musk leaving Washington D.C. and returning to Tesla, but also because of reports (by Elon Musk) that the Tesla Model Y has been testing self-driving in Austin, Texas. Tesla share price is up 43.8.% from the low it hit on April 17, 2025, of $241/share. At $346.46/share it’s also still down -29.1% from the high of $488.54/share set on December 13, 2024.
 

While everyone is focusing on politics, FSD*, robotaxis and robots, Tesla faces price wars and fierce competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers, apart from any impact from tariffs, as I indicated in my blog last month (click on Tesla to access). Chinese competition is having a very negative impact on Tesla. In the 1st quarter of 2025, revenue growth was down -9.23% from the same quarter in 2024. 2024‘s net income was cut in half, down to $7.13 billion, compared to $15 billion in 2023. However, at the same time the Tesla model Y is still the top-selling SUV in the world (of any kind, not just electric vehicles).
 
*Full Self-Driving

However, Chinese competition is not the only headwind for Tesla. A lot is riding on the potential market for Tesla’s FSD and robotaxis. With the price earnings ratio of 197, good news is baked in years down the road. So, if there is any near-term snafu, or God forbid more fatal crashes, the volatility that we have seen in Tesla’s share price could come back to haunt investors.
 
Waymo Vs. Tesla’s Robotaxi
The main competitor for robotaxis is Waymo. (Click if you’d like to see my personal ride in Waymo on December 1, 2024, which I posted on my Instagram profile. For research purposes, I take Waymo frequently in Santa Monica, California.) Waymos are being vandalized and people who live close to the charging station are constantly filing complaints with their city council, seeking to shut it down. As with many disruptive products, robotaxis are not very popular or widespread, even though, so far, at least the Waymos seem to be safe.
 
So, imagine the problems that ensue when a vehicle is involved in any sort of horrible accident. After General Motor’s Cruise robotaxi seriously injured a pedestrian on Oct. 2, 2023, the CEO was sacked and the entire project was scrapped.
 
And that leads me to the conversation about LiDAR, which is the basis of Waymo‘s technology versus Tesla Vision. Fortunately, you won’t have to read a series of quotes from experts. You can see it for yourself. Mark Rober, a former NASA engineer, did a 6-part test of Waymo versus Tesla self-driving technology to see which would score highest in a series of six challenges. I encourage you to watch the video starting at about the eighth minute.

So, which car was Wile E. Coyote and which was the Roadrunner?

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Rober’s entertaining video clearly shows LiDAR’s superior performance. However, it’s not just a test; the problematic performance has been also proven in the real world. It has been reported by Forbes that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has confirmed 44 fatalities and hundreds of non-fatal crashes involving Tesla’s FSD software. In Tesla’s 1Q 2025 Vehicle Safety Report, the company writes, “Accident rates among all vehicles on the road can vary from quarter to quarter and can be affected by seasonality, like reduced daylight and inclement weather conditions.” Tesla points out that their self-driving application is still far better than the U.S. average. Click to see the Safety Report where Tesla’s autopilot is calculated at over seven million miles driven before an accident, whereas the national average is under one million.

Cost vs. Safety
Two of the advantages that Tesla Vision has over LiDAR (at this point) are cost and longitudinal data. According to Tesla, more than nine billion miles have been driven with Autopilot engaged. Of course, as LiDAR costs come down, that could be less of an issue. However, that “advantage” factors in only the simple math. One non-fatal pedestrian incident wiped out the entire General Motors Cruise project. While we don’t hear a lot about the FSD problems for Tesla, and they may be downplayed, delayed or buried as long as the Tesla CEO is tight with the Administration, it’s pretty hard to imagine that Tesla’s robotaxis are going to save the day using technology that has proven to be quite problematic to date.
 
Uber, Lyft, Robotaxis and Air Taxis
Rideshare drivers are likely to be up in arms about the idea of people using taxi services that don’t require a driver. There are a lot of people relying upon that rideshare income. Despite the threat, Uber and Lyft managed to show increased revenue year over year in the most recent quarter. However, robotaxis are only being rolled out in a few markets at this time. San Francisco, Santa Monica, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas are some of the few places Waymos can be taken.
 
Meanwhile, anyone who has ever tried to get to the theater in Manhattan or from the west side to downtown in Los Angeles, or practically any city during rush-hour, are keenly aware of the frustrations of gridlock. We are seeing positive signs that air taxis are moving forward, with a potential for certification from the FAA over the next year for Joby and Archer Aviation. (Click to read my blog on Air Taxis.)
 
The forward momentum of air taxis is not enough to disrupt taxis (and helicopters) today. However, will they be more mainstream by the L.A. Olympics? (Archer Aviation is the official air taxi of the 2028 L.A. Olympics,)
 
Robotaxis aren’t completely disrupting Uber and Lyft yet, largely due to all of the testing that must be done to ensure safety. However, investors are valuing Tesla at $1.13 trillion when the company only made $7 billion last year and reported less revenue in the most recent quarter. The very lofty valuation (outlandish?) is the key source of the volatility in Tesla’s share price. Should Tesla be worth more than two times the value of Toyota, GM and Ford combined?

Bottom Line
It’s hard to bet against a CEO who has had such amazing feats at Tesla and SpaceX. Elon Musk is known for making outlandish proclamations and then finding a way to actually achieve them. Being the richest man in the world, worth a reported $432 billion, according to Forbes, certainly helps his aspirations. Disrupting the ICE* industry was no small feat. However, for Main Street investors who are holding onto shares hoping that they will go higher because everyone will own an Optimus in the future or will be receiving a 2nd income from the rides their Tesla offers autonomously, it is important to separate the hyperbole from reality.
 
*Internal Combustion Engine

Tesla is overpriced. It’s priced for what the potential could be with robotaxis and Optimus years down the road. Both products could eventually come to market in a big way, assuming there haven’t been fatalities that completely scrap the autonomous taxi project. However, between now and those cyber halcyon days, there is likely to be a great deal of share price volatility, from the ebb and flow of safety checks and rollouts, fierce worldwide competition and from any economic slowdown. (The auto industry struggles when the economy slows down.) We’ve seen this in spades over the past months and years. Tesla has zigzagged between a high of $488 and a low of $167 over the past five years. In 2022, the stock sank by -67%. In April 2025, it was worth half of what it was in December 2024. That can be positive if you’re on the right side of the trade, as whales tend to be, and quite a stomachache if you’re attempting to buy and hold or purchasing high on headlines. If you’ve made a boatload investing in Tesla, now might be a great time to capture gains and consider dollar-cost averaging into a Magnificent 7 hot slice that has some Tesla in it, such as the iShares Self-Driving EV & Technology fund (symbol: IDRV).


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Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
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Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.