The S&P500 Doubled Over the Last Five Years.

The S&P500 Doubled Over the Last Five Years.
How well did your portfolio do? Do you know why you did better or worse than the index?

We’re happy to report that our emphasis on the Magnificent 7, artificial intelligence, silver, copper, crypto and international funds has paid off far better than the S&P500, while our fixed-income, safe strategies have been earning a market yield without paper losses. For years. See the chart below for details.

FYI: I’m interviewing Rob McEwen, the Chief Owner and Chairman of McEwen Mining and McEwen Copper and Kelley Wright, the managing director of Investment Quality Trends, a leading Blue Chip newsletter, next week. Email [email protected] for information on how you can join us live, or visit https://www.youtube.com/nataliepace or https://nataliepace.substack.com/ to watch or listen to the interviews in their entirety, once they are published.
  
 
Below are the things I’ll cover in this blog.
 
Wall Street is On Fire, But in Elite Areas Only
Gold and Silver Miners
Why Silver Over Gold in 2025? What About 2026?
The Magnificent 7 and AI
Copper and Peru (not Chile)
Value Replacement Funds
S&P500, Not DJIA
Underweight U.S. Credit Risk
Valuations and Volatility
Rebalance to Capture Gains
 
And here is more information on each topic.

Wall Street is On Fire, But in Elite Areas Only
As you can see from the chart above, the S&P500 has doubled over the past five years. Silver & Peru are shining even brighter than the Magnificent 7.
 
If you don’t have large cap growth, technology, safe havens, or artificial intelligence, then your portfolio likely did less than the S&P500 performance and might have lost money. As you can see in the chart below, the Vanguard 2030 Target Date Retirement Fund spent most of the last five years in the red and is still worth less than it was in Nov. 2021. (Let’s talk about better options for your employer-sponsored retirement fund. Email [email protected])

source: MSN.com. (c) Microsoft. Used with permission.

The U.S. is experiencing a K-shaped economy, where those at the top are living the rich life and those at the bottom are in serious trouble. Likewise, Wall Street is bifurcated between safe havens, AI, copper and the Magnificent 7, and the distressed or underperforming industries of commercial real estate, health care, energy and consumer staples. Are you aware that over half of the S&P500 is at or near junk bond status, including a lot of banks? Many of the weaker industries are concentrated in U.S.-based income-producing value funds, which is why we have been using value replacement funds (for years) in our sample pie charts.
 
Peru has been our mid cap value replacement choice since October of 2021. Over that 4-year period, the iShares Peru ETF (symbol: EPU) has doubled. Silver, the Magnificent 7, AI and Cybersecurity have been among our hot slice choices. Even clean energy (symbol: ICLN), which many people had thought was out of favor, has gained 52% year to date.
 
Bitcoin was the 2024 Investment of the Year, and has been on fire since 2023, but has had more muted performance in 2025. in fact, if history is true to form, we could hit a Crypto Winter between now and spring of 2026. (Rebalancing 1-3 times a year to capture gains and keep a diversified, age-appropriate portfolio in play is a very important part of our easy pie chart strategy.) Be sure to read my Investment of the Year blog for additional information. Learn more about rebalancing in my Rebalancing IQ Test blog.
 
Now, with stocks at an all-time high, is a great time to rebalance, to capture gains and to make sure that we have exposure to the hottest areas on Wall Street, while underweighting the weakest performers. As importantly, we must know how to avoid paper losses and earn some income safely, while keeping a percentage equal to our age (or more) intact. This is simply the life math that we all should have received in high school, which we aim to make easy and actionable in our work.

So, how can you navigate the divergences we’re experiencing in the economy? Getting safe, protected, hot and diversified is much easier than you might think. While a lot of research and analysis goes into the design of our sample pie charts, we do the heavy lifting to make things simple for our retreat attendees and Main Street coaching clients. When we know what to underweight and how to lean into strength, we can enjoy the best that Wall Street has to offer and earn income safely, without the paper losses and underperformance that are commonly seen in managed portfolios and 401Ks. Our wealth will be protected from a recession or from stocks losing value.
 
Gold and Silver Miners
Silver had quite a year in 2025, while gold has been in favor since the pandemic. The mining companies, which had been left behind in the precious metals rally, really came roaring forward this year with exponential performance. RING (the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF) is up 118% in 2025, while the silver miner ETF (symbol: SLVP) is up 122%.
 
Targeted ETFs are a great option if you want to skirt the volatility of owning an individual company. Most Main Street investors don’t have the time or expertise to compete with Wall Street analysts and hedge funds. While First Majestic Silver and McEwen Mining have also doubled in share price this year, individual companies tend to be more volatile.
 
Why Silver Over Gold in 2025? What About 2026?
For the past few years, we have been leaning into silver because silver was still trading at a better price, which we assumed would give it more upside potential. With silver hitting a new all-time high, will investors continue to prefer silver to gold? It is possible that will continue to be the case because the price point for silver is so much lower. Anyone who wants to purchase coins might find the more affordable silver coins attractive. One of the reasons that I singled out First Majestic Silver in my June 2025 blog was that they also mint their own coins. They will even customize the coin for their customers (with a minimum order amount).
 
I prefer investing in funds rather than the coins for many reasons. (I outline the reasons in The ABCs of Money, 6th edition.) One of the most important is that if we have our own self-directed retirement account (particularly a Roth IRA), then it’s a great idea to put our highest performing investments, including the gold, silverm Bitcoin or Ethereum funds, within that account to avoid capital gains taxes. There are other advantages too, so I do encourage you to read up on the safe havens in my books and blogs and to learn more at our Financial Freedom Retreat.

 
The Magnificent 7 and AI
The performance of the Magnificent 7 has been responsible for Wall Street’s strength over the last five years. Investors from around the world are piling into U.S. AI and technology equities. Additionally, the multi trillion-dollar technology companies are investing in data centers, which is helping to push U.S. GDP above expectations, to an anticipated 2.0% in 2025 (source: IMF).
 
Conservative investors could easily have missed out on the rally because those type of plans typically hold value, not growth. (Even more concerning, there’s a great deal of risk in the conservative investments, where we might be lured in with pie-in-the-sky promises of earning income, while being patted on the shoulder and told not to worry about all those paper losses, which are typically far more problematic than we are being advised.) A diversified plan should include growth, income, protection, and hot industries. The best protection we can have against a stock downturn isn’t market timing or avoiding stocks. It’s having the right amount safe, and potentially overweighting safe, while knowing what is safe in a Debt World where there is a lot of credit and duration risk. We teach this at our Financial Freedom Retreats. The next one is January 17-19, 2026. Register before November 30, 2025, during our early bird pricing period.
 
Copper and Peru (not Chile)
Copper, which is essential for a great deal of our energy needs including electric vehicles and power transmission, is enjoying a period of great strength. As you can see in the chart above, Peru, the second largest exporter of copper in the world, has been one of the best performers on Wall Street this year, with gains of 56%. Peru has been our mid value replacement since 2021. In addition to offering higher GDP growth and lower debt to GDP than the U.S., the Peru ETF (symbol: EPU) often has a dividend yield that is double a comparable U.S. mid cap value fund. The current yield is 3.50%.
 
Value Replacement Funds
We have been using value replacement funds in our nest egg, for better performance, diversification, sometimes lower risk and often double the yield. The countries that we have been most interested in typically have higher GDP growth with lower debt to GDP than the U.S. The story of the goods they provide the world is also in favor. Peru is one example of this, with general government debt to GDP of 31% (compared to the U.S.’ 121%) and expectations of 2.9% GDP growth in 2025 (compared to 2.0% in the U.S.). We have also been leaning into Australia, Ireland, and Indonesia. Click on the blue highlighted words to read blogs on each of these countries.
 
What’s hot and what’s safe can change every year, as we enter a new phase of the business cycle. So, it is key to do our 1-3 times a year rebalancing and to have a reliable source of analysis to determine which equities and fixed-income products are in favor and which we should underweight, particularly in today’s world with such unprecedented high debt.
 
S&P500, Not DJIA
The S&P500 has been outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as you can see in the chart above. Why is that the case? One of the reasons is that the S&P 500 includes all seven of the Magnificent 7 companies. Another is that the 30-component Dow Jones Industrial Average still has a great deal of the most heavily indebted slow growth companies in it. The index includes Boeing and 3M (a diversified chemical company that has agreed to pay billions in settlements for allegedly polluting water with forever chemicals).
 
If we are only contributing to our employer-based retirement account, we might have very limited options for investing, unless we have a self-directed option. It’s always a good idea to have a personal Roth IRA, in addition to whatever retirement account we have at our employer. With our personal, self-directed plan, we have a lot more freedom of choice in what we invest in. I offer solutions for how all these plans work together (including, potentially, a health savings plan) in my private coaching and also in the Q&A portion of the Financial Freedom Retreat.
 
Underweight U.S. Credit Risk
The lowest performing industries on the sector report card at the top of this blog have a few things in common. Most of them are heavily indebted with slow growth. While many of us are aware of the U.S. public debt at $38.1 trillion, few might be informed that the total debt and loans in the United States are an eyepopping $104.1 trillion. These unprecedented levels of debt are more than double what they were before the Great Recession, during the Financial Crisis.

​Central banks around the world are trying to manage these indentures and cycle through them in a long and determined way by 1) extending duration on many fixed income products, and 2) lowering interest rates, which makes it easier for these beleaguered companies to keep borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, instead of restructuring. In a normal world without all this financial engineering, a great deal of these companies would have already gone through bankruptcies and debt restructuring, such as happened in the Great Recession and the Dot Com Recession before that. Inflation is the bug in the ointment that is making the RX more complicated.
 
Credit and duration risks lie at the heart of why so many bond funds, bonds, and treasury markets around the world are suffering from paper losses and experiencing liquidity challenges.

We’re happy to report that those who are employing our fixed income and safe strategy are not suffering from paper losses and are earning a competitive market yield without the credit and duration risks that are abundant in the fixed-income marketplace. If you’re being offered an investment that is double what the Fed Fund Rate is, you could be sold into a scam or scheme. Ask yourself, “Why would a company want to borrow from me at double what they would pay a bank if they were in good standing?” The higher the dividend, the higher the risk.
 
We covered all of this and more in our Bond and Fixed Income Without Paper Losses Masterclass in mid-October. We also spend one full day on what’s safe at the Financial Freedom Retreat. Receive access to the Bond Masterclass recording when you register for the New Year New You Retreat. (Be sure to ask for your free gift.) Email [email protected] to learn more and register now. Click to learn the 15+ life math strategies that you will master and to read real world testimonials.
 
Valuations and Volatility
By many measures, equities are quite elevated. Warren Buffett has often warned investors that when stock prices are this high, they are playing with fire. Indeed, the only time stock prices were higher than they are today (based on the CAPE ratio) was in 2000, before the Dot Com Recession. The NASDAQ Composite Index lost -78% in that recession and took 15 years to recover.

The CAPE Ratio. Professor Robert Shiller. Yale.edu.

High valuations increase volatility. In April of this year, when the S&P500 dropped -20%, you could have purchased Nvidia for $87/share. (Today, Nov. 7, 2025, Nvidia closed at $188.15/share.) The Magnificent 7 stocks were the ones that were leading the market down in April. Check out how far they fell in the seven-week period between February 19 and April 8, 2025. (Keeping an age-appropriate plan in place through regular rebalancing and capturing gains is our best protection against a downturn in stocks.)
 

Yes, the stocks have more than recovered since April, but that is not guaranteed to be the case going forward. Recessions are a normal part of a business cycle.
 
Rebalancing to Capture Gains
Rebalancing 1-3 times a year is one of the best ways to manage the volatility. If we’re capturing gains when stocks hit all-time highs, we are keeping that wealth and then have a treasure trove of income-producing capital to buy low, when the markets fall. Most people don’t buy low because they can’t buy low, or because they’re too afraid. At the same time, keeping a percentage equal to our age off the Wall Street rollercoaster, and overweighting more safe if we have good reason to, ensures that our wealth remains intact. This is always an important part of a well-designed plan, but even more so as we get closer to retirement.
 
Having an age-appropriate, diversified plan that protects us from downturns provides us with the confidence and the capital to do what the pros do – to stay on the right side of the trade and keep our estate intact.
 
Bottom Line
We are exceedingly happy that so many of our strategies are performing at the top of Wall Street. This is not a happy accident, or luck. We remain vigilant about analyzing what is coming up on the horizon to make sure that we those people who are reading our blogs, listening to our videoconferences and attending our retreats, are informed with easy, actionable strategies that can outperform any market, whether stocks go up or down. Join us!
 


Register now to join us at our online Financial Freedom Retreat Jan. 17-19 2026 where you'll learn how to protect your wealth, save thousands annually in your budget, invest in hot industries like AI, gold, crypto and more, and how to be in the best seat during our volatile Debt World. Register by Nov. 30, 2025 to receive the best price. Email [email protected] to learn more and register now.

If you'd like a life-changing adventure of a lifetime, be our guest at a royal manor house in Cornwall, England, March 12-19, 2027. (With just eight rooms available, this exclusive, private, bucket-list adventure sells out a year in advance!) Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] to learn more. The 2025 Restormel Retreat was a magical and royal experience. Click to learn more. 

Receive the best price when you register with friends and family for the ONLINE Financial Freedom Retreat Jan. 17-19 2026. Request testimonials at [email protected]. You can also view some on the flyer page of the retreat. 

Learn how to:

* Invest in hot industries, such as cryptocurrency, Nvidia, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing,
* Save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices
* Hedge against a weaker dollar,
* Invest and compound your gains,
* Green your retirement plan,
* Easy and efficacious nest egg strategies,
* Get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and crypto),
* Evaluate stocks,
* Avoid capital gains and financial predators,
* Keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and,
* Know what's safe in a Debt World.

Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 
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Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. ​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.

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Click through to the flyer to learn more. Call 310-430-2397 or email [email protected] for pricing, additional information and to register. Register by Nov. 30, 2025 to receive the best price.

Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. Spring Equinox 2027. Email [email protected] to learn more. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. Register now to receive the best price, the best room and four private, prosperity coaching sessions. There are only 7 rooms available. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two. Considering the perks, you're receiving a 65% discount to learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, and the room is free! Email [email protected] to learn more. The best rooms at the 2025 retreat were sold out in 2024! Yes, it's a great idea to register and start transforming our lives now!

Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​​

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Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube.

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly-traded companies, funds or projects mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan, which has been designed strategically, with the assistance of financial professionals who are familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge, patience and diversified strategy.  
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Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.