Weight Loss Drugs Dominate Headlines, While mRNA Gets Defunded.

Weight Loss Drugs Dominate Headlines, While mRNA Gets Defunded.
 
Medicine has really changed. Four years ago, vaccines were all the rage. This month many of the companies that were hailed as the saviors of Operation Warp Speed are being defunded. Now weight loss drugs dominate the headlines. Ozempic (NovoNordisk) and Mounjaro (Eli Lilly) have gone mainstream. It seems like everybody’s getting a jab. HIMS/HERS have brought pharmacies into the 21st-century with subscriptions, apps and deliveries right to your porch.
 
There are tales of woe and wonder in biotech and healthcare. How do we best navigate that? Is there a fund that targets the future and underweights the problem areas? It’s easy to understand why Moderna (symbol: MRNA) is on the ropes. But why is Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and Wegovy also trading down -66% from its 5-year high? Does that make the stock a buying opportunity?
 
Here are the topics we’ll cover in this blog. Email [email protected] if you’d like an updated healthcare, biotechnology or medical devices stock report card.
 
Pandemic Leaders are at the Bottom
Diabetes and Weight Loss Drugs are Leading
Medical Devices
ETFs: IBB vs. IHI
UNH vs. HIMS/HERS
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow
 
And here is more information on each point.
 
Biotech: Pandemic Leaders are at the Bottom
With the pandemic concerns behind us, mRNA biotechnology companies were already on the ropes. Last week they took another blow when it was announced that mRNA research projects were being defunded. According to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, JR., “BARDA is terminating 22 mRNA vaccine development investments because the data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID and flu. We’re shifting that funding toward safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate.”
 
Which companies will be affected? Projects that have been terminated, restructured or rejected include Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna. Read a more complete list in the HHS press release.

Moderna’s 2024 sales were just $3.24 billion, after hitting a high of $19.3 billion in 2022. Revenue was down another -41% in the most recent quarter. Not surprisingly, Moderna’s shares are trading near an all-time low.
 
Pfizer sales are suffering quite a lot, too, with a total of $63.63 billion in 2024, compared to $101.18 billion in revenue in 2022. Pfizer revenue dropped another -8% in the 2nd quarter of 2025. The company’s stock is trading near a 5-year low, down by more than half from the highs in December 2021.
 
Diabetes and Weight Loss Drugs are Leading
Obesity is an epidemic in the U.S. According to the CDC, 41.9% of U.S. adults suffer from obesity, costing $173 billion in medical expenditures. So, a shot or pill that helps people lose weight is in high demand.
 
Eli Lilly saw sales increase 37.64% in the most recent quarter (YOY), while Novo Nordisk’s growth was 12.93%. Lilly is forecasting an increase to $60-$62 billion in revenue in 2025 versus 2024’s $45.04 billion (+38% at the top of the range). However, Eli Lilly shares are down -34.2% from the high of $972/share in July 2024. Before you jump in, note that the price-earnings ratio is a lofty 41.77, and the competition in the weight loss space is fierce. While Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are the current leaders, many big companies, including Amgen, are hot on the heels of this massive industry.
 
Novo Nordisk’s CEO wasn’t as rosy in his forecast of just 8-14% sales growth in 2025. Ozempic is the name we all know, so why isn’t it leaping over the competition? According to the Novo Nordisk press release of August 6, 2025, “ The lowered sales outlook for 2025 is driven by lower growth expectations for the second half of 2025, reflecting the persistent use of compounded GLP-1s, slower-than-expected market expansion and competition… for Wegovy® in the US obesity market, for Ozempic® in the US GLP-1 diabetes market as well as for Wegovy® in select IO markets.” At $50/share, Novo Nordisk’s stock is down 65.7% from its June 24, 2024 high of $146/share.

Medical Devices
While weight loss companies are struggling and pandemic companies are at rock bottom, the iShares Medical Devices ETF has soared over the past two years, flying from a low of $44/share in Oct. 2023 to a high of $65 in February. Shares are steady at $61.50. Robotic surgery, hip replacements, insulin monitors, stents, catheters and defibrillators might not make as many headlines as weight loss but have been more popular with investors.  
 
UNH vs. HIMS/HERS
UnitedHealth stock fell off a cliff, plunging from $525/share (April 2025) to $261.57/share (8.12.2025). What happened? The UNH stock had already survived the murder of CEO Brian Thompson on Dec. 4, 2024, a problematic report from the Office of the Inspector General about questionable Medicare payments and practices (Oct. 24, 2024) and a Department of Justice investigation that gets more problematic and expansive each day. However, when the 1Q 2025 earnings report was released and growth was a mere 9.8%, investors sold in droves. The DOJ is reportedly investigating civil and criminal wrongdoing at the company.
 
As one of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components, UNH has been dragging on the DJIA performance. The Dow Jones Industrial average is only up 4.9% on the year, compared to the S&P500’s 10.2% ROI year to date. (This is a typical pattern over the last few years.)
You might have seen an ad for HIMS or HERS, a new app that makes it easy to lose weight, grow hair and stay supplied with erectile dysfunction medication. Revenue is up 72.61% at HIMS. The good news may already be priced in, however, as HIMS’ price-earnings ratio is 64.

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow
The past five years have shown investors just how fast things change. In the pandemic, Moderna and Pfizer were the hottest investments on Wall Street and today they are being defunded by the HHS. Weight loss drugs are all over the airwaves, but 2025 investors have largely lost money. HIMS is a darling with retail investors and meme stock aficionados. However, lofty valuations create massive volatility, as we’ve seen with pandemic and weight loss companies. Tread lightly.  
 
ETFs: IBB vs. IHI
Funds are one way to smooth out the volatility of owning just one company. Purchasing a fund within our pie chart system will also help to keep us on the right side of the trade. (Learn more in my blog, Get Safe & Hot in 1 Easy Plan.)

​We’ve been leaning more into the Medical Devices ETF over the past two years. The iShares Medical Devices ETF (symbol: IHI) is up 40% from the Oct. 2023 low. Meanwhile, the iShares Biotechnology ETF (symbol: IBB) is down -25% from its pandemic highs of $176/share and is only up 19.6% from the Oct. 2023 low. Why is biotech performing at half the speed of medical devices? Biotech is inherently volatile and highly competitive. Medical devices are always needed and each company has their own area of expertise and dominance.
 
Still, rebalancing 1-3 times a year is an important part of our time-proven wealth plan. That keeps us capturing gains at the high, and buying low, instead of riding the Wall Street rollercoaster.
 
 
Bottom Line
Chasing headlines often puts us on the wrong side of the trade, buying high before bad news or lofty valuations spook investors into selling. Investing in an individual superstar can cost us a great deal of money when the tides change, or if a competitor comes out with a better product. Leaning into an ETF, such as the IHI iShares Medical Devices ETF, can be an important part of an age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan. (Dollar cost average when prices are at an all-time high.) Rebalancing 1-3 times a year can help us to keep more of our money – capturing gains in an easy-to-follow system, while protecting our wealth from the inherent volatility of equities.
 

 
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Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The ABCs of Money (6th edition) and The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 6th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is (2nd edition) are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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