Will the 2026 World Cup Save the Travel Industry?

Argentina (Lionel Messi) won the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Photo: Lionel Messi during New England Revolution vs Inter Miami on July 9, 2025. Photo by: Bryan Berlin. Wiki Commons. Used with permission.

​Will the 2026 World Cup Save the Travel Industry?
Tourism Dropped in 2025 in the U.S. Will 2026 Come Roaring Back?
 
International travel to the U.S. is expected to be down by -15% this year compared to the levels seen in 2019 (source: Trade.gov). Starting next year, there are many major events on the horizon that could seduce international guests to American shores again, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, America’s 250th Anniversary (2026), the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics, the Rugby World Cups in 2031 and the Salt Lake City Winter Games in 2034. However, before you pick your favorite hotel chain, travel app or airline to invest in, including Airbnb, there are a few other considerations, including the big question, “Why are foreigners choosing to forego the U.S.?”
 
Here are the things I’ll cover in this blog.
 
Sonder Holdings. Marriott’s Partner Bites the Dust.  
Oh Canada!
Visa Roadblocks
Cyber Monday & Consumer Uncertainty
Airlines, Hotels & Booking Sites
High Valuations with Slow Growth
Tempting Headlines
 
And here is more information on each point.
 
Sonder Holdings. Marriott’s Partner Bites the Dust.
On November 14, 2025, Sonder holdings Inc. filed for chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcy. The company had been a partner with Marriott. According to Business Insider, Marriott terminated its agreement with Sonder because the company owed Marriott $17.7 million. Since the bookings were made on a Sonder page on the Marriott website, Marriott is now embroiled in helping disgruntled clients recover fees that were prepaid for adventures that are no longer available.
 
So far, investors aren’t concerned. Marriott is still trading at an all-time high, with a 32 price-earnings ratio – quite lofty for a company with only 4% year-over-year revenue growth. However, the challenge could show up in the 4Q earnings report, which should be released in February of 2026.
 
Oh Canada!
Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs according to USTravel.org. In the wake of tensions between Canada and the United States over tariffs and the rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state, Canadian politicians launched the Destination Canada and Canada Strong Pass marketing campaigns, encouraging citizens to forego travel to the US and instead explore the destinations at home. That resulted in a gangbuster year for the travel sector in Canada, and in a steep short fall of Canadian visits to the US in 2025. According to Statistics Canada, the drop in visits was 23% year over year.
 
California and Montana have responded with their own welcome passes and love campaigns for Canadians. Will this work, or has Canada fallen out of love with the U.S.?
 
Visa Roadblocks
In 2019, 35 million (43%) of international visitors and $120 billion in spending (50%) came from countries where a visa is required to enter the United States. Brazil, India and Mexico are three of the top inbound markets that accounted for nearly 22 million (63%) of these visitors. According to USTravel.org first time visitor visa applicants can wait more than a year for their visas. (This has been the case since 2022.) In 2025, there was a new visa integrity fee of $250 (on top of the regular visa application fees) added to the cost of a visa. Immigration crackdowns have also had a negative impact on worried international travelers.
 
Cyber Monday & Consumer Uncertainty
Consumers account for almost 70% of GDP in the United States. Domestic travel makes up about 90% percent of the $1.35 trillion annual U.S, travel revenue. So, economists are going to be closely watching Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending trends to gauge signs of how American consumers feel about spending this holiday season.
 
We are already seeing early signs of economic stress in rising unemployment and rising delinquencies, particularly in student loans and auto loans. According to the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Consumer Debt and Credit Report for the 3Q of 2025, 14.3% of student loan debt was in serious delinquency (90 days or more delinquent), with 3% of auto loans.
 

Airlines, Hotels & Booking Sites: Low Yield, Low Credit Quality, Substantial Debt
One of the first things you’ll notice if you take a look at the Travel and Airline Stock Report Cards, is that a lot of the companies have very low credit quality, massive debt, and very tepid year over your sales growth to support it. Most of the companies are either junk bonds or at the lowest rung of investment quality. Some of the companies are cash negative. Email [email protected] if you would like to receive these stock report cards.
 
A gangbuster year in travel might help the industry. However, just jumping in on any World Cup related investor fever might put investors on the wrong side of the trade, particularly given the lofty valuations that some hospitality companies are enjoying.
 
High Valuations with Slow Growth
Despite the above concerns, a lot of companies are trading at five-year/and or all-time highs, including Las Vegas Sands, Hilton Worldwide, Expedia and Marriott. Price-earnings ratios for most of these companies are very high, particularly considering the slow revenue growth most are experiencing.
 
Even if the travel industry gets a small bump next year with the FIFA World Cup, will this be enough to offset a potentially weaker, domestic travel market, if the economy does not strengthen, and inflation proves to be persistently sticky? Will the high leverage and debt in the industry make more headlines making investors nervous?
 
Tempting Headlines
Headlines always make things sound exciting, and it is highly likely that some bloggers are going to latch onto the FIFA World Cup narrative to support an investment in hospitality. (Some companies may even pay influencers to promote this angle.) However, when we wait for the headlines, we’re usually late. Successful investing requires looking at the entire picture of a 100-piece puzzle and buying and selling at favorable prices – more analysis than whether the World Cup will bring an expected recovery of 3.7% growth in international travelers in 2026.
 
Bottom Line
When an economy slows down, travel and leisure tend to be one of the first areas where families tighten their budgetary belts. With so much of the United States tourism tied to the U.S. consumer, and a recent downturn in popularity for U.S. destinations from international travelers, betting on hotels and airlines could be a very risky investment.
 
In the short run, Wall Street can be a popularity contest. So, anything can go up just because the headlines are screaming that they are a great idea. However, in the end, it always goes back to good business practices. And sadly, perhaps due to the pandemic hangover, many of the airlines, hotels and booking companies have not fully recovered to their pristine fiscal health.
 
While I might buy a ticket for a World Cup event, I’m unlikely to invest in the hotel I stay at, the online website I book my experience on, or the airline I fly with.



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