May is National Bike Month. Paris and Amsterdam are the Stars. May is National Bike Month. That is a great excuse to do something for ourselves that could be a game changer for us personally. Bikes are great ways to get around that promote physical health, clean air and can save a great deal of money in the budget. Below are some important reasons to ride a bike this month, as well as some possible solutions for safety concerns. Transportation is the #1 CO2 polluter in the U.S. (Australia & Canada, too). Car culture is the reason that most Americans, Australians, Canadians and people in the Middle East have a CO2 footprint that is 3X or more that of many Europeans. Here’s a chart of CO2 per capita of some major countries. Paris is the Star The most recent example of a city shifting away from cars is Paris. Parisian Mayor Anne Hidalgo won her election on a green platform, promising to make Paris bike-friendly and to eliminate plastic. According to her bio, Hidalgo has created over 400 kilometers of bicycle lanes. She is using a model championed by Leon Krier when he designed Poundbury (Dorset, England) in the 1970s – of creating neighborhood hubs with grocery stores, schools, parks, health centers, etc., that denizens can visit with a 15-minute walk. (Learn more about Poundbury by clicking on the blue-highlighted word.) Amsterdam Became a Biking City in the 1970s In the early 1970s, Amsterdam was a city fighting air pollution, vehicular deaths and gridlock. Here’s a link to a 1972 documentary, where kids were writing essays about wanting everyone to switch from driving cars to riding bikes to get rid of pollution and to stop the casualties (watch 1:75 – 2:05). In 1971 alone, it was reported that 3,000 people were killed by cars in Amsterdam, 450 being children. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, there were almost 41,000 motor vehicle traffic fatalities in the U.S. in 2023. Stop de Kindermoord or “stop the child murder,” led by former Dutch MP Maartjie van Putten, led bicycle protests to the home of the Prime Minister. While it didn’t happen overnight, Amsterdam is now one of the best examples of municipal bike infrastructure. Are You Driving Less? The average person spends over $8,000/year on their personal vehicle, when you factor in the car payment, insurance, gasoline, parking and maintenance. How much time do you spend every week (or day) driving? Could your time and money be better invested elsewhere? When I spoke to Ted Winterer, the former mayor of Santa Monica, California, back in 2019, he revealed that in a family with four adults, they had one car and five bikes. The savings, even considering the taxis they took on occasion, was half of what they were spending on transportation before they made the switch. What About Safety? A lot of people are concerned about safety when they shift to a bike commute. When Jo Esbensen made riding a bike cool back in Venice, California, in the early 2000s, there weren’t very many bike lanes. When Maartjie van Putten lobbied to create safe streets for kids in Amsterdam, gridlock and pollution choked the streets. Citizen Jane Jacobs fought hard to keep the West Village of Manhattan a walking neighborhood. Jonathan and Li Watkins take country roads for their bike commute. (You can see a picture of them at the top of this blog.) Change happens with us, on the ground. I personally walk for almost all of my errands, with my backpack in tow. There are so many examples of ordinary people being the change that our planet needs to heal. When our city, state and national representatives are hounded enough, they find ways to fund the changes that our community needs to move forward. Should you work from home a few days a week to reduce CO2, keep more of your money and invest time in family and friends that you would have wasted commuting? Are you aware that the average American drives about 13,500 miles per year, emitting 8,473 metric tons of CO2 (based on 23 mpg). Are you above or below that average? Can you reduce your CO2 footprint by 20% or more this year? How will you achieve that? I sold my car a few years ago, and reduced my personal transportation CO2 by more than 2/3rds. I enjoy greater health as a result of walking and riding a bike so much more, and I’m saving a ton of money – even given that I sometimes rent a car or take ride-share. I’ve also reduced my business transportation CO2 by 90% by putting most of our retreats, master classes, meetings and training online – something I’ll discuss in greater detail in another blog this month and in a videoconference on Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 4 pm PT. Email info@NataliePace.com with VIDEOCON in the subject line, if you’d like to join me live. Riding a bike takes more planning than hopping in a single-occupancy vehicle. However, when we place the planet on the top of our to-do list and get creative, the checks and balances of determining if the travel has a higher purpose, and if there is a creative way to do the same thing without as much CO2 (such as hosting meetings online) help each one of us to be a part of the solution. Wisdom is also key, so that we're not smug in our lifestyle, with blindspots, such us a daily commute, that we might get creative about ameliorating. Also, there is a great deal of greenwashing and misinformation that keeps us customers of gas stations, gas guzzlers, polluting industries, such as plastic and polyester – oil products, and "green" cruises, which are some of the worst polluters in transportation. The Earth Gratitude Project Features Sustainability Projects from Around the World The Earth Gratitude project has a docuseries with five episodes on Food and Health, Kids, Animals and Conservation, Everyday Sustainability Tips and the Power of Gratitude featuring some of the most impactful and exciting projects from around the world. There are so many ways, including walking and biking more, that we can improve our own lives and our community. I encourage you to watch the episode that appeals to you most (and then the others). You will be inspired and educated by all of the great work going on. We would like our next episodes to feature Paris and Amsterdam's transition to clean transportation and plastic reduction. We’re looking for partners to help us produce and distribute the next episodes. (We’ve got an excellent team to write, film and score them.) If you know someone who might be interested, please reach out to discuss this with me personally at info@NataliePace.com. Put Earth Gratitude docuseries in the subject line. If you'd like to contribute to this project, email info@NataliePace.com for Venmo information. We welcome all contributions, large or small. Bottom Line Biking is great for physical, fiscal and ecological health. Try walking or biking for local errands, at minimum. Can you go a full day, or a full weekend, without driving? Be sure to mark September 22, 2024 on your calendar for the Worldwide Car-Free Day. I want to hear what you’re doing differently this month. Please tag me on Instagram and use #EarthGratitude. https://www.instagram.com/nataliewynnepace/ https://www.instagram.com/earth_gratitude/ Join us at our online June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest AI, Gold & Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubled. Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
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AI, Gold and Copper are on Fire. Sunpower Doubles. The last year and a half have been on fire for Wall Street. However, as I’ve mentioned a lot this year, the gains were concentrated in just a few companies, all with a strong technology presence. The Fantastic 5 include: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta (Facebook, Instagram), Microsoft and Nvidia. Breakthrough technology, including artificial intelligence and led by AI’s powerhouse Nvidia, has more than doubled the returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year. If you don’t have large cap growth or technology-targeted fund, your portfolio is lagging the S&P500. The iShares Breakthrough Technology ETF (TECB) has almost doubled off of its 2022 low, while the S&P500 has performed at half the speed, and the DJIA rose 35%, over the same period. (All of the gains are quite impressive, until you factor in the 2022 losses. Keep reading.) Other stronger performers include copper, gold, silver, cryptocurrency, and this week’s new meme stock phenomenon, Sunpower Corporation. Incidentally, breakthrough technology, artificial intelligence, copper, silver, clean energy and crypto have all been identified as hot industries for years in our Financial Freedom Retreats. Hot slices add performance to our wealth plan – particularly if we are smart about proper diversification and 1-3 times a year rebalancing. Here are the industries we’ll discuss in this blog. Most are outstanding performers. However, I’m also going to address a few of the hots of bygone years, which have performed dismally of late (and what you might do about that). We’ll also discuss key dates for our rebalancing. Breakthrough Technology and Artificial Intelligence Copper Gold/Silver Cryptocurrency Biotechnology Cannabis Clean Energy ETFs: Solar & Sunpower Key Dates for Rebalancing our Wealth Plan And here are the details on each point. Breakthrough Technology and Artificial Intelligence Without the gains of the Magnificent 7 last year, the S&P500 would have returned under 10% instead of the spectacular 26% total gains. A lot of people, especially those with retirement plans or accounts that are managed by conservative money managers, have lagged the indices because they are missing large cap growth. “Conservative” plans are not living up to their name in today’s Debt World because long-term government bonds lost even more than stocks did in 2022, with -26% losses. LT bonds did very little to make up those losses last year, with only a 2% rise off the dive. An important thing to remember about the fever around artificial intelligence and technology is that most of the spectacular performers of 2023 were the stark losers in 2022. The hottest industries on Wall Street have seen extreme peaks and plunges, especially since the pandemic. We have a plan for managing volatility that is quite literally as easy as a pie chart. It doesn’t require day trading or taking on a second career, although being the boss of your money and making sure that your plan is age-appropriate, properly diversified, protected and rebalanced is one of your most important jobs (rather than having blind faith that someone is doing this for you). When we employ our pie chart system, with once, twice or three times a year rebalancing, we are prompted by the system to do what we should do – capture gains at the high and buy more at a lower price when equity prices fall. (Headlines quite consistently prompt us to do the opposite of what we really should be doing.) If you don’t have any breakthrough technology or large growth in your current wealth plan, dollar-cost-averaging in (since equities are near an all-time high) is a good tool to use. You can learn how to do this at our June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Get the best price when you register by Wednesday, May 15, 2024. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 for prices, information and to register now. Copper Copper prices are at their 5-year high. It’s human instinct to want to buy high when something gets this hot. The industry fundamentals for copper are strong. Goldman Sachs calls copper the New Oil because it is essential to the clean energy revolution. There is exceptionally strong demand for copper, and a few of the producers are off-line this year, which is constraining the supply a bit. We have seen copper mining stocks, as well as the ETFs of countries that are rich in copper, soar this year. However, there is more to consider. Copper is called Dr. Copper on Wall Street because the prices tend to be the first to fall when an economy skids towards a recession. The US economy has been resiliently strong over the past few years, growing in spite of economic warnings that high interest rates could spark a contraction. However, there are a lot of alarming factors that could trip up the trend, including persistent inflation, wars, supply chain disruptions, natural disasters, excessive debt, half empty office buildings, low credit quality in over ½ of the S&P500 companies, or consumers pulling back on their spending. It is certainly possible that copper prices will go even higher than they are right now. However, since business cycles hit copper first historically, it’s a good idea to capture gains, while prices are high. This is not about divesting everything at the high. If we still believe that copper is essential going forward (it is), we would trim it back to an age-appropriate hot slice of our wealth plan. Keeping our money (by selling high) makes it easy to add more at the low, if prices fall. If the prices keep rising, we’re still invested and profiting. In the pie chart system, when our slice becomes two slices because it has doubled in value, we can sell high and trim it back to one. The pie chart system with regular rebalancing is a buy low, sell high plan on auto pilot. It prompts us to do what we should be doing. (You can read about how to do our pie chart strategy in The ABCs of Money, or learn and implement it at our Financial Freedom Retreats.) Gold/Silver Silver is up 30% in the last three months. However, gold and silver have really lagged stocks over the past decade. What is causing the interest in gold and silver this year? A lot of the demand has to do with the BRICS currency, and China wanting to have enough gold to back their yuan with the precious metal. Historically, silver runs in tandem with gold, which is why we are seeing silver rising, too. (Read my recent blogs by clicking on the blue-highlighted words.) Below is a chart of the top holders of gold. I have highlighted countries in blue that have purchased more gold over the past year. (Red means the country has sold in the past year.) Silver’s high was $48.70 in 2011. At a current price of $28.44, it would be gaining 71% if it returns to its all-time high, which is why silver has a potential to outperform gold. Gold is already trading at an all-time high, and is only 23.6% higher than its 2011 peak. Both gold and silver can be a hedge against inflation and weakness in equities. The fever around artificial intelligence reminds me of the Gold Bug frenzy of 2011, when investors wanted to pull out of stocks and pile into gold (a disastrous decision as you can see from the 10-year performance chart above). Here is where having a few hot slices can be a tool to protect us from ourselves. Whenever anything gets hot, we are tempted (by opportunists, marketers, salesmen and scam artists) to think that we have to dive in with all we’ve got. There is no shortage of YouTube videos, influencers, emails and financial advisors who will encourage us to put all of our eggs in one basket. If we really believe in something, use it as a hot slice or two of our age-appropriate, diversified wealth plan. This protects us from gambling too much on one thing, while rebalancing prompts us to be on the right side of the trade during periods of volatility. Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrency is another perceived safe haven that experiences great volatility. Cryptocurrency was by far the best performer in 2023, and it was also one of the biggest losers in 2022. (See the charts above.) Capturing gains at the highs of 2021 would have given us the liquidity and the emotional fortitude to buy low when Bitcoin plunged -66% in 2022. Instead of shivering through the Crypto Winter and finally crawling back to even, we would be elated with the 171% 2023 returns. Are you interested in cryptocurrency as a hot slice? Wondering which brokerage account you should use, which coin you should buy, and whether an ETF is the best plan? I discussed all this and more in my free Crypto videoconference. Go to YouTube.com/NataliePace to watch it back. Biotechnology In 2020, after getting approval for its vaccine, Moderna showed the most spectacular year-over-year revenue growth that we have ever seen, at 23,000%. Now that we’re on the backside of the pandemic, the company has seen its revenue plunge by -64%, from $19.3 billion in 2022 to $6.85 billion in 2023. Moderna was yet another example where taking gains early was essential. We named Moderna the Company of the Year on May 18, 2021 at $160/share. When the stock hit $437.67 on Sept. 21, 2021, we encouraged readers to capture spectacular gains of 174%. The stock is now at $128.32. One way to manage this type of volatility is to purchase a biotechnology ETF, instead of the individual companies. If you prefer to look at your investments once or twice a year, rather than babysitting them and learning how to be a great stock picker, this is an important distinction to make. I just hosted a Stock Master Class this month, teaching Main Street investors how to evaluate the forward outlook and the potential of an investment, rather than letting our emotions get the best of us. Emotions will always put us on the wrong side of the trade, prompting us to sell low and buy high, until we learn how to employ due diligence, wisdom and right action. (Again the pie chart with regular rebalancing require no stock picking and is a time-proven, 21st Century strategy.) If you have a lot of individual stocks that are trading very low, rather than just selling low because you think they’re never going to rise again, it’s important to evaluate what the best strategy is now and going forward. Can that money be invested elsewhere for a better return, or are we just selling low? I offer an unbiased portfolio analysis in my private coaching program. This is a great way to redecorate your financial house. Once the interior design of your wealth plan is beautiful, regular rebalancing and Spring cleaning will be much easier. Email info@nataliepace.com or call 310-430-2397 for pricing and information on my private coaching. Cannabis Cannabis, like GameStop, Bed, Bath and Beyond and even Blackberry, were all meme stocks. The difference with cannabis was that the rapid trend of legalization and decriminalization showed great promise for companies that were developing CBD beverages, in addition to other adult use recreational products. (Gamestop, BBB and Blackberry were getting killed by the competition.) So what happened to cannabis and why are so many companies restructuring their debt, going out of business or expanding their product line into other things? Even though cannabis is only illegal in 4 states, there is still a huge demand for the black market. That is the biggest competition. When people purchase gummies, buds or other weed products at a dispensary, they have to show their identification. They pay more. Celebrities and business leaders, as well as regular folks, do not want others to know their private business. (You don’t have to do this to buy alcohol or cigarettes.) They prefer to have their weed delivered to their doorstep at half the price, with complete anonymity, in other words, through the black market. Tilray has pivoted to selling craft beer, whiskey and hemp-based health supplements at Whole Foods, in addition to its CBD beverages, medical cannabis and adult use products. Tilray purchased Shock Top from Anheuser-Busch on August 7, 2023, and has acquired many craft breweries and distilleries over the past few years. This has resulted in year-over-year revenue growth of 29.36%, while Canopy Growth saw a decline in revenue of -22.44% from a year ago. As Irwin D. Simon, Tilray Brands’ Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated in the 3Q fiscal 2024 earnings press release, “Over the past several years, our playbook of expanding our cannabis business to complementary markets such as beverages and hemp-based consumer products has positioned us well to navigate the current environment and to benefit from future growth opportunities.” At the same time, Tilray stock is still being hammered, and is trading at an all-time low of $2.09/share. Tilray lost -$105 million in the most recent quarter, and has $226 million in cash and cash equivalents. Email info@NataliePace.com if you’d like to receive our most recent Cannabis Stock Report Card. Clean Energy ETFs: Solar & Sunpower Sunpower is the latest meme stock. This week, influencers are promoting Sunpower as a YOLO HODL short squeeze (ala Gamestop?). How high will it go? The stock has more than doubled in the last five days. The short squeeze aficionados are hoping that this Friday’s options expiration date could send the stock soaring into the stratosphere. The facts are that Sunpower is struggling. The company narrowly averted bankruptcy, and will restate 2023 earnings. Their 1Q 2024 earnings report will be late. 2023 was a year that saw a net loss of -$247.11 million. The 4th quarter saw a year-over-year drop in revenue of -28%, from $498 million in 2022, to $357 million in 2023. Of course, both AMC and Gamestop had bleak outlooks when meme stonk Wall Street gamers took the companies to the moon. A safer bet that could yield delightful returns would be to invest in a Clean Energy ETF that is rich in solar. Solar is projected to provide 41% more electricity in 2024 than it did in 2023, according to EIA.gov. Yet the iShares Clean Energy ETF ICLN is trading at a -58% discount from its Jan. 2021 high of $33/share. Of course, this is definitely an industry that could suffer if a fossil-fuels friendly President is elected in November. (You’re the boss of your money; you can choose your own hot industries.) Clean energy is another industry, such as breakthrough technology, cryptocurrency, gold/silver and even copper, that experiences wild volatility. Between the $8.70/share lows of the pandemic and the $33/share highs in January of 2021, ICLN tripled in share price. Regular rebalancing is key to realizing that outstanding performance. Key Dates for Rebalancing our Wealth Plan The Spring Rally The Santa Rally Back to School Stock Sales Each of the above market trends make for good times to do our rebalancing. If there are strong Spring and Santa rallies, we can rebalance and capture gains at the end of April and the end of December. There is a market aphorism that reminds us to do this: Sell in May and go away. September tends to be the worst performer of the month. So, if we do our rebalancing at the end of September, we might find some areas of opportunity to buy at a lower price. Bottom Line Now (at the end of April) is a great time to rebalance our plan and make sure that it is properly protected, diversified, and age appropriate. Regularly balancing helps us to capture gains and increase our wealth, instead of just riding them up and down. What’s hot and what’s safe change every year. For this reason, a lot of our volunteers attend the retreat at least once a year to peer into what opportunities and challenges lie ahead. This helped retreat attendees to lean in to real estate as early as 2009, while avoiding the devastating plunge during the Great Recession (with our stark warning in April of 2005 to avoid real estate). We’ve had breakthrough technology, artificial intelligence, clean energy, and Peru (a copper rich country) on our hot list for years. Investors weren’t getting paid to take on the risk of long-term bonds, and have been paying for that decision in losses for the past decade. (Our safe plan warned to avoid the losses, and lean into real estate, which more than doubled.) Join us at our June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register by May 15, 2024 to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by May 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Sell in May and Go Away? What About the Election? Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Sell In May and Go Away? What About the Election? April is normally a great month on Wall Street, which is why March/April have been coined as the Spring Rally. However, this April stocks lost -4%. Is this the beginning of a bigger slide? Will equities wobble, soar or sink? How will the election affect the outcome? What should you do now, if anything, to protect your wealth? Here are factors that institutional investors (the whales of Wall Street move the markets) are watching. Interest Rates Sell in May and Go Away Election Year Trends Debt levels Stock Buybacks Why Rebalancing is so Important Is Warren Buffett a Buy & Hope Investor? And here is more color on each point. Interest Rates Federal Reserve Board governors are positioning a “higher for longer” scenario, a bitter pill which likely caused the April retreat on Wall Street. So far, the S&P 500 is still up 8.6% on the year. However, every time stocks try to gain ground, based on some “new hope” of a rate cut, they tend to give it up quite quickly. The Fed Fund rate remained at 5 ¼ to 5 1/2% at the May 1, 2024 meeting. Futures data shows that there is an expectation for pauses at the June and July meetings (Source: CME FedWatch). 25-50 basis points cuts are expected by the Dec. 18, 2024 meeting. Lower interest rates help everyone from Main Street, to Wall Street, to Madison Avenue, to Washington DC, and everywhere in between, and tend to get cut in recessions. While no recession is predicted for 2024, there are shadows in the wings that have all of us concerned – everything from war, political uncertainty, a contentious Presidential election, empty office buildings, excessive levels of debt and a small, but increasing level of auto and credit card defaults. If any of these problem areas become a full-blown crisis, stocks will head south. For now, the headlines are dominated by student protests, politics and war, which (so far) isn’t causing weakness in equities. However, there is never a warning before a bank fails or a major corporation slashes their dividend, which is why rebalancing your wealth plan once a year is a great idea, no matter what the economic predictions are. (Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions.) If your budget is struggling due to inflation, high interest rates or excessive debt, I recently wrote a blog offering life hacks and solutions. Sell in May and Go Away The possibility of higher for longer interest rates isn’t the only reason why now is a great time to rebalance our wealth plan, and make sure that we are properly protected and diversified. The 1st quarter 2024 GDP report (advance) came in at a very slow 1.6%, while 2024 full-year GDP is expected to be just 2%. That isn’t a recession, but it’s very slow growth – particularly given that stock prices are very high on a historic basis. If you would like to have a stress-free vacation this summer, it’s a great idea to rebalance in May before you go away. For many of us, that means knowing exactly what we own and why, rather than just having blind faith that our financial advisor is protecting our wealth for us. I offer an unbiased second opinion. Email info@nataliepace.com or call 310-430-2397 for pricing and information. You might also consider joining us at our June 8-10, 2024 online Financial Freedom Retreat where you can learn how to be the boss of your money. “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest,” Benjamin Franklin. Election Year Trends The election year trend over the last 10 years looks pretty good. However, that’s because it doesn’t include the Great Recession or the Dot Com Recession. March of 2000 marked the all-time high for the NASDAQ Composite Index, when it topped over 5000. By October 2002, the NASDAQ had plunged -78%. It took 15 years to recover. October 2007 was the market high before the Great Recession. Between October 2007 and March 2009, the Dow dropped -55%, to a low of 6547. When you include those two election years, the election year trend looks bleak on the 20-year and 30-year timeline. Debt Levels Over half of the S&P500 is at or near junk bond status, including a lot of banks and insurance companies. Companies with higher levels of debt tend to have slower growth. They might pay a high dividend to try to keep investors interested. However, with profit margins squeezed and money expensive to borrow, some might need to cut their dividends (without warning). We’re seeing that happen quite a lot in the commercial real estate industry. Dividend cuts can spark an overnight gap down in share price before investors can protect themselves. We saw this with some bank stocks in 2020 (Wells Fargo) and 2023 (the bank failures), with General Electric in 2017, and of course in the many bankruptcies that occurred in 2008 (auto manufacturing, Lehman Bros.) and 2001 (Enron, telecom). Debt levels and high valuations (nothing is on sale) are some of the reasons why we are underweighting U.S. value funds. There are other countries that offer a higher yield. A few also offer less risk. We cover this in the June 8-10, 2024 online Financial Freedom Retreat. I also discuss this with my private clients. Stock Buybacks Corporate repurchases of shares have been a major boost to stock prices for the last 15 years. Buybacks were down -21% in the fourth quarter of 2023 from the trillion dollar high set in the 12 month period ending in June 2022. You might recall that stocks dropped -26% in 2022. This had a lot to do with a curtailment of the stock buybacks, from banks, car companies and oil corporations looking to conserve capital. Howard Silverblatt, the senior index analyst, is forecasting that share buybacks might increase in 2024 over last year, perhaps even as high as $900 billion for the year. This is positive for stocks, but might be complicated by the “higher for longer” interest-rate scenario and the current distress in the commercial real estate market, which could spill over to the banks. Mega banks are some of the most robust purchasers of shares. Apple is number one with $23.5 billion shares repurchased in the 1Q 2024. The bank stress test results will be released by the Federal Reserve Board in June. The Financial Stability Report was just released a few weeks ago. Why Rebalancing is so Important If you look at the chart below, you could make a case for rebalancing or for Buy & Hold. However, when you look at the full 21st Century trends, the case for Buy & Hold doesn’t hold up. We tell ourselves (and the media/broker/salesmen also tell us) that we just have to buy and hold. However, when stocks drop by half or more, (the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a rock bottom of 6547 on March 9, 2009), many are so distressed over the loss of wealth (and credit rating and perhaps even a home) that they are tempted to sell to stop the losses. Regular rebalancing would prompt us to add more at a lower price, and we’d have the money to do that because we would have kept at least a percent equal to our age safe from the equity losses. Most people don’t buy low because they can’t. Rebalancing regularly allows us to protect and diversify our wealth – to capture gains at the high, and add more when stocks head south. We always want to keep an age-appropriate amount safe, and to know what is safe in a Debt World. (The bond market is very tricky, but it’s possible to get a safe 5% return, if you are mindful about it.) Most of us have more in our retirement account then we could earn in many years of working. So, protecting our wealth now, while stocks are at an all-time high, is a great idea. We want to fix the roof while the sun is still shining. When we wait for the economic storms to hit, we have to hope and pray to recover losses. That is very damaging for our FICO score, and could put us at risk of losing other important things, including our home. Investing the time and money necessary to batten down the hatches on our personal wealth now could be the best job we undertake in 2024. If you’re a DIY type, then join us for our June Financial Freedom Retreat to learn and implement time-proven wealth strategies that earned gains in the Dot Com and the Great recessions, and outperformed the bull markets in between. If you’re a busy professional, then consider getting an unbiased second opinion from me personally now. Is Warren Buffett a Buy & Hope Investor? A lot of pundits cite Warren Buffett as a model of Buy & Hope. However, Warren Buffett is not a Buy and Hold investor. Buffett is a value investor who takes profits opportunistically. He quite famously dumped all of his General Electric stock just a few months before the dividend was cut. While Warren Buffett still has Apple as Berkshire Hathaway’s largest holding, the company sold 126 million shares of Apple stock over the last two quarters. Apple’s year-over-year revenue performance was a decline of -4.3% in the most recent quarter. Sales in Greater China was down -8%. (Click to learn why.) It is rare for the Federal Reserve to print up $5 trillion to ensure that we don’t have a recession, as happened in the pandemic. The secular bull market that we have been in since 2009 has been fueled by excessive debt, which has a lot of people very concerned. When we’re properly protected and diversified, we can sleep better at night knowing that we’re not going to wake up with -55 or -78% losses in our stock portfolio or -26% losses in our bond portfolio. (The S&P500 dropped 35% in the pandemic in less than a month.) A lot of people are concerned about bank debt, the U.S. dollar, BRICS, etc. There are strategies for these concerns as well. You can read about them in my blogs, videoconferences and books. (Email info@NataliePace.com and indicate what topic you’re interested in. We’ll point you in the direction of a free blog or videoconference.) You can learn and implement our time-proven easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies at our June 8-10, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat. You can get more personalized attention in my private coaching. Bottom Line There’s a reason why “Sell in May and go away” is such a time-worn market aphorism. However, a better way to think of it is “Rebalance in May and go away.” We’ll have a better vacation if we’re confident that our wealth is protected from any market mayhem that might startle the markets over the summer. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by May 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Vacations that Color Our World Forever. The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Vacation 2024: Life Lessons That Color Our World Forever *For less than most of us spend on gas *Or a daily Starbucks fix *Or a few months of car insurance or car payment We may not realize just how much we need it. A break from the daily routine. However, chances are that we do. Most of our money gets sucked from our paycheck through a weekly visit to the gas pump, a daily visit for a designer latte, or in the mountain of bills that we all have to attend to each month. Is it time to siphon off an investment for a new outlook that can change the entire trajectory of our life? I’ve done this a few times – when I was ready to start a family (Greece), when I was floundering on which career direction to take (Italy), and when I lost a close family member to suicide (Bodhgaya). Pushing pause on the routine and stepping into a culture that is a bit foreign to us can prompt us to: 1) develop new (often much better) habits, 2) to heal, and, 3) to emerge rejuvenated and inspired. With a blank canvas, our brain can draw new possibilities – especially if the creative oceans we are immersing ourselves in offer lessons it would be difficult to learn at home. Each of the essential trips that I took resulted in me getting closer and closer to my true self and my life purpose. I gained the experience and wisdom to think differently and the courage to do it, even if it wasn’t the norm. (Are you aware that most Americans, Canadians and Australians have a CO2 footprint that is 3X that of most Europeans?) Right now, many of us are planning a summer getaway – a week somewhere for R&R and a little fun. We might be planning a cruise, thinking it’s affordable or even “sustainable” (eventhough cruise ships have the worst CO2 footprint of any transportation, outside of private jets). I’m encouraging us all to think about investing in an experience that will color our world for the rest of our lives, and could easily result in annual savings of thousands of dollars in our budget when we return home. As I mentioned at the top of this blog, the cost of our exclusive, specially curated brain trust adventure in Cornwall, England is less than most of us spend in a few months on car insurance or car payments, or gasoline or a daily visit to Starbucks. (And yes, we’ll help you with a payment plan. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more.) I’m inviting you to an exclusive opportunity that only comes around once every two years or so – our Restormel Royal Manor House Retreat (2023, 2025 and potentially 2027). Imagine how living in a luxurious, 5-star, historic manor house for a week (ala a Downton Abbey country house) can positively impact our lives forever by helping us to think much bigger and understand better how to stop making the billionaire corporations rich, while keeping more of our wealth in our family. The Restormel Manor House Restormel Manor is approximately 500 years old, sits on the site of the ancient Holy Trinity Chapel and is steps from the castle built by the 1st Prince of Wales over 900 years ago – Restormel Castle. Restormel Manor is surrounded by extensive woodland walks and located close to Cornwall’s beautiful south coast. The manor has been extensively refurbished and great care has been taken to retain the character of the house and its historic features. The interior is beautifully furnished to suit the style of the property, with a mixture of period and contemporary furniture. Accommodation at Restormel Manor includes three wings, sitting rooms, a formal dining room, kitchens in each wing, lodging and extensive grounds. Restormel Manor also features an indoor heated swimming pool, steam room and sauna, children's play area, tennis court and games room. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now! There is very limited availability. The Early Bird pricing period is now through May 30, 2024. From here, you are within easy reach by car of the Lanhydrock estate and the Eden Project in Bodmin. Just a short distance up the hill are the remains of Restormel Castle, which dates back to the 12th century and was once one of the most important buildings in Cornwall. In 2023, we visited Restormel Royal Manor House in March. Spring is a wonderful time to be in this exclusive community, as we aren’t fighting the crowds. After the retreat, a few of us rented a car and visited Stonehenge the morning of the Spring Equinox (at 5 am), where they opened up the grounds for a religious celebration (i.e. no ropes). It was such an extraordinary experience! (Click to watch that.) Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now! There is very limited availability. The Early Bird pricing period is now through May 30, 2024. The Restormel Royal Manor House Retreat is scheduled for March 7-14, 2025. The Spring Equinox is March 20, 2025. The beaches should be lovely. Nansladen is a short distance away. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now! There is very limited availability. The Early Bird pricing period is now through May 30, 2024. What you’ll receive: A life-changing vacation in a luxurious setting (for a very affordable price) The freedom to forest bathe, swim, immerse yourself in history or participate in group fun (whatever you wish) One-on-one private, prosperity coaching (3 sessions to fine-tune your journey forward after the retreat) Free all-access pass to attend our online Financial Freedom Educational Retreats and Master Classes for a full year. Brain Trust Board Meetings at the Manor House, including our Financial Freedom Game and Activation Plan Solutions for What’s Keeping Us Stuck A New Lens for Viewing Life By Walking Through the Centuries of Leadership and Wealth This is an exclusive opportunity available to only a select group of individuals who can form a strong brain trust for each other, who have already joined our volunteer team. Only six rooms remain available. Live Royal for a Week. Change Your Life. The manor house is owned by The Royal Family. Here, our group can jumpstart our FIRE* dream. We embrace a week of visioning, of ditching the car and gridlock traffic, of walking a lot more, of living even more sustainably, of forest bathing and ambling in meadows filled with lambs, of marveling at castles that were built in the 1100s, as well as the Eden Project biosphere that was built just 20 years ago. *Financial Independence Retire Early What kind of insights can we tap into? What kind of epiphanies and new possibilities will present themselves when we slow down and allow ourselves to dream? What partnerships might emerge? Step back into Mother Nature and harmony for a glimpse of the world we might create. Together. Sleep in the beds of, and walk in the footsteps of, a family that has built and retained wealth for centuries. Imagine an adventure in an inspiring, culture-rich location, with a brain trust of others, who arealso committed to lifelong learning, prosperity, sustainability, living a rich life and adopting the strategies for financial freedom and sustained wealth. If you’re more interested in exploring the seashore, tasting world-class dining and swimming in the heated pool by yourself, that’s available as well. The Restormel Royal Manor House Retreat is an intimate, 5-star, life-changing opportunity for an affordable price. Bring your teen or college grad. Bring a friend. Bring your sacred beloved. Splurge on your own self-care spa trip. (There is a heated pool, sauna and steam room.) Join us. When we change our story, we change our life. It's difficult to change our life story when we are doing the same thing every day, with only a week or two escape now and then. Take a risk, in an extraordinary, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to play in a setting that is simply not be available to most of us on our own. Land Rates now through May 30, 2024: $1397.50/person (based upon double occupancy). (Yes, you read that right, a week in an exclusive, 5-star manor house, with thousands of dollars of prosperity training perks, for less than most of us spend annually on gasoline. And yes, we’ll help you with a payment plan. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more.) Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now! There is very limited availability. The Early Bird pricing period is now through May 30, 2024. Comments from the March 2023 Inaugural Restormel Royal Manor House Brain Trust "Thank you for changing my life for the better (and with this retreat)." Wes "The retreat had a huge impact on me because Natalie did an amazing job facilitating and modeling the lifestyle she teaches, and lining up activities that kept us engaged throughout, while also being flexible, allowing for us to have personal time, or to opt out of activities if we needed to. While I will never be a Royal, the experience sparked my imagination and motivation in ways I never expected to create my own “royal” lifestyle that’s fitting for me. For example, playing the Billionaire Game inside a Manor House owned and used by Royals, and experiencing this lifestyle, made it a whole new experience that expanded ideas and possibilities. One couldn’t help but to think differently. The Restormel Manor House itself is quaint, beautiful, impressive, and inspiring. The town of Lostwithiel and surrounding areas are spectacular. This experience was life-changing for me. It was the perfect blend of discussions, activities, and personal down time. I’m looking forward to future Retreats, as they will take on a whole new meaning for me with this new experience. And it was wonderful how we often found ourselves gathering with others in a kitchen, sitting room, or in the dining room, having forward-thinking conversations and sharing ideas." T "Thank you for inviting us on this magical experience. We loved our time here and hope to come back sometime!" L&M "I'm really grateful to have become part of Natalie's community as a young professional. Between the knowledge gained through retreats and the experiences from this immersive trip, I feel much more aligned with my visions and values than most of my peers. Meeting similarly-minded people at retreats has fueled my ability to dream deeply and commit myself to action. This trip in particular allowed me to take time for myself and my future plans in ways that I don't often prioritize in my day-to-day routines and obligations. Getting to be in different environments and consciously crafted spaces gave me essential perspectives that allowed me to expand my vision. I left the retreat feeling fired up, and ready to keep moving forward toward the life of my dreams!" M "[This retreat] gave me an opportunity for my mind and brain to open up to dreaming again. I loved every minute. Natalie's approach to life is very interesting, fun, wealthy and wholistic. If that is what you like and want, then coming on this retreat, which comes with online seminars, is a great value. You will meet incredible people, think outside of the box, be inspired, see natural wonders as well as exclusive places - all while being mindful about your carbon footprint. You will learn a lot from other like-minded people who come from a different area of life. Because Natalie is unpretentious, she doesn't invite the energy of negativity or flamboyancy that some people associate with wealth. She honors life and every sentient being, as evidenced in her life's work and books. She focuses on the true value of wealth and wealth creation, which veers toward eco-sustainability, generational wealth and wealth sharing, and not short term gains. The retreat provides a 5-star experience with ample space and time to do as you wish. The people of the town were surprisingly welcoming and hospitable. Those are the little things that make it a 5-star experience without the fake pretense or entitlement that some might associate with money or wealth." E "I want to find the right words to express what a wonderful experience the week I spent with Natalie Pace and an amazing group of like-minded individuals exploring infinite possibilities, Duchy of Cornwall, Lostwithiel, Royal Manor, proper English tea party, fairy god mother, lovely new friends met along the way, potential new partnership, laughter, nature and so much walking all over Cornwall and all the fabulous castles and places we visited and experienced, to name a few of the vast and wonderful adventures and experiences that we shared. I feel blessed and grateful. My wish for the retreat was to dream again and dream more - consciously and while sleeping - I did - it’s amazing. My mind, heart and soul opened up and I was present. It was a lovely group of individuals with one common thread - all of us huge fans of our financial and sustainability guru - Natalie Pace." E "Thank you for making such an impact on my life and the lives of others! You are a blessing to the world. I'm so grateful to know you, and to be a part of this family. It was an experience of a lifetime - great camaraderie and the chance to put what we’ve learned into action (and learn more) - all in an amazingly beautiful place." S "Thank you for letting me come on this amazing trip! I've had so much fun, and I also learned a lot! I hope I can come to the next one as well." R "Thank you for a wonderful week. Feeling very grateful." C Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now! There is very limited availability. The Early Bird pricing period is now through May 30, 2024. Receive the best price (and your choice of room) when you register by May 30, 2024. Join Natalie Pace in Cornwall England at an exclusive royal estate March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now! There is very limited availability. The Early Bird pricing period is now through May 30, 2024. Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by May 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest The Magnificent 7 Drop to the Fantastic 5 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Magnificent 7: Are They Now the Fantastic 5? Which 2 Stocks Are Not So Magnificent This Year? Last year, a handful of companies took stocks to an all-time high. As I mentioned in my February 27, 2024 blog, without the help of the Magnificent 7, the S&P 500 returns would have been under 10% instead of the spectacular 26.3% total return. The average Magnificent 7 company doubled in share price in 2023. 2024 is proving to be quite different. Only three of the Magnificent 7 are offering outstanding returns. Two are riding only slightly above the general market, and two have lost money for investors. What is going on? Is the Magnificent 7 a phenomenon of the past? We will cover each of the Magnificent 7 in this blog. We will also look at election trends. Email info@nataliepace.com if you would like an updated Magnificent 7 stock report card. Nvidia Meta Microsoft Amazon Alphabet Tesla Apple Election Year Macro Trends And here is more information on each company. Nvidia Investors are manic about the future of artificial intelligence. Nvidia is smashing it in returns, with gains of 70% so far in 2024. Earnings growth at Nvidia is an impressive 265% year over year. So, why has the price dropped over the last month? Nvidia is down $157/share since the company’s all-time high, set on March 25, 2024. Could it be simple profit-taking, or is there more to the story? Nvidia continues to lead AI, with robust demand that could take the next quarter’s revenue to $24 billion – up 190% over the same quarter a year ago. However, many major technology competitors are investing in R&D to bite into Nvidia’s market dominance. It’s important to remember that with innovation, the company that comes up with the next great thing can become ten times more valuable overnight. That is basically what happened with Nvidia. It is likely that other companies will develop competitive AI products going forward, which will help with the bottleneck and prices. AI is ubiquitous. There is plenty of money to share, as Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that generative AI will be a $1.3 trillion market by 2032. So, why are investors taking profits from the hottest company on Wall Street? This has to do with valuation and macro trends. Nvidia’s price-earnings ratio is 71. Should a company with $30 billion in net profits be valued at $2.13 trillion? Is there a way to invest in AI without buying high? A good strategy is to always have a hot slice or two in your wealth plan (that is age-appropriate and properly diversified). If you aren’t already invested in AI, consider dollar-cost averaging in. You can also smooth out the volatility of an individual company by investing in an AI fund, such as iShares TECB. We spend a full day on what’s hot at our April 27-29, 2024 Financial Freedom Retreat where you can learn more about diversifying your wealth plan to include hot industries, such as artificial intelligence. Join us! Meta Meta shares are up 45% year to date, while revenue growth is up 24.7%. The 1st quarter revenue is projected to ring in with another 20-29% year-over-year growth. Meta will report 1Q earnings in Wednesday, April 24, 2024, after the market close. Meta, a communications company (no longer in the technology sector), is heavily reliant on advertising for 96.5% of its revenue. The last two years have been surprisingly resilient for the U.S. economy. However, when CEOs start worrying about a slowdown, ad revenue spend is one of the first expenses to be cut. That is one of the reasons why Meta’s shares have had such dramatic pullbacks historically, with the 3-year low at $88/share (Sept. 2022), compared to today’s price of $510. As of the most recent Federal Reserve SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), the U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.1% in 2024 – nothing spectacular, but not a recession. While this is positive for Meta in the near-term, the 33 P/E is pricey, particularly when there are so many triggers that could slow the economy down further. Microsoft Microsoft and Alphabet have gained 12% so far this year. Microsoft’s revenue growth was 18% in the most recent quarter – quite an achievement for a $3 trillion company with $212 billion in annual revenue. Is this sustainable in 2024? Microsoft’s competitive edge is that the company can offer AI to smaller companies that are unable to integrate the benefits of AI on their own. The demand for Generative AI is still much higher than the availability, which means the trillion dollar corporations can snag up the supply first. According to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, “By infusing AI across every layer of our tech stack, we’re winning new customers and helping drive new benefits and productivity gains.” Over 1/3 of Microsoft’s Azure AI customers came to the company over the past 12 months, while over ½ of the Fortune companies are customers (according to the Microsoft earnings call). Microsoft’s AI advantage will continue to drive results in the foreseeable future. Like Nvidia, however, Microsoft’s valuation is expensive, at 37 P/E. Microsoft’s March quarter earnings results will be released on Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 2:30 pm PT. Amazon Amazon rallied 22.7% in 2024. Amazon continues to be the go-to online U.S. retail site, with over half a trillion in sales last year ($575 billion). Earnings was a respectable $30.43 billion in 2023, compared a net loss of -$2.72 billion in 2022. Investors love Amazon. Shares are trading very close to an all-time high of $181.76, with a lofty valuation of 1.89 trillion and a price-earnings ratio of 63. Will the U.S. consumer continue to buy buy buy online, or will rising credit card and auto loan defaults curtail spending? Though we might be tempted to buy high because everyone is doing it, here again, adopting a pie chart time-proven system, with an appropriate amount invested in the Fantastic 5, can help us to capture gains at the high and buy more at the low (rather than being on the wrong side of the trade). Alphabet Alphabet is another company that is heavily reliant on advertising, with 76% of revenue coming from Google ads. Revenue increased 13% year over year in the most recent quarter. Like Microsoft, Alphabet is promoting their competitive edge in AI cloud. According to Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, “In Q4, our product and gen AI leadership enabled us to win and expand relationships with many leading brands, including Hugging Face, McDonald’s, Motorola Mobility, and Verizon.” Google Cloud revenue was up 26% year over year in the December 2023 quarter. The company is also investing in Waymo and Pixel 8, their AI-first phone. Will Alphabet win business away from Microsoft Cloud? You can bet the team has their eye on this. Alphabet will report the 1st quarter 2024 results on April 25, 2024 after the markets close. Tesla After doubling in 2023, Tesla shares tanked in 2024, with losses of -40.2% so far. Tesla’s German factory was hit by an activist group on March 5, 2024, that took down their power. The successful breach caused production delays for more than a week. Red Sea attacks in January also prompted the automaker to pause production for two weeks. Sadly, the lower production in 1Q 2024, which was down -12.4% from the fourth quarter in 2023, was rather welcome news. Deliveries were down -20.2% quarter over quarter and -8.5% year-over-year. Why are deliveries down? What are the challenges that Tesla is facing? Will these challenges persist or abate this year? Electric vehicles continue to be the most exciting growth vertical of the auto industry. However, all electric vehicle manufacturers are facing price wars and fierce competition, particularly with China becoming the world’s largest exporter of autos in 2023, ahead of #2 Japan. Additionally, rising consumer debt and defaults on auto loans and credit cards could slow consumption going forward. As you can see in the year-over-year decline in Tesla’s auto deliveries, competition and weaker demand are already taking a bite into sales. As Tesla admitted in their 4Q 2023 earnings report, “In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.” Even after a price drop of -40% this year, Tesla’s shares are still trading at an elevated 35 price earnings ratio. High growth companies can handle a higher price earnings ratio. However, 2024 is proving to be the first year that Tesla is not a growth stock. Apple Apple is still the number two smart phone company in the world, behind Samsung (in units). While the S&P500 is up 6.3% so far, Apple is down -11%. Why? One of the concerns is that China has banned Apple in their government use, while Huawei is experiencing a renaissance. (Click on the blue-highlighted words to learn more from my blog earlier this year.) Apple’s year-over-year sales growth in the first quarter of 2024 was only 2%. For the March quarter, the year-over-year comparables aren’t in favor. Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO, alerted analysts in Apple’s earnings call that total revenue could be down -5.3%. Apple will report the March 2024 quarter earnings report on May 2, 2024 at 2 pm PT. So, Apple, like Tesla, is another company that is being heavily impacted by price wars and competition, particularly from Chinese companies. Apple is no longer a growth stock. Apple still has $173 billion in cash and marketable securities, and is the most aggressive company when it comes to corporate repurchases of their own stock, with $20.1 billion purchased in the most recent quarter. Corporate buybacks has the potential to keep the share price buoyant for Apple, though that hasn’t been the case so far this year. We’ll learn more about Apple’s capital return program when the company reports their March quarter results. However, the 27 PE is elevated for a company that is no longer a growth company, and the company’s debt load is $108 billion – quite elevated among its Silicon Valley peers. Election Year Macro Trends April is typically a good month for returns, with an average gain of almost 3% annualized over the past five years. However, the S&P500 is down -4.5% so far this month. Is this a temporary glitch that will reverse with the first central bank rate cut? That’s what most investors are hoping for, although recent comments by several Federal Reserve Board governors, combined with persistently high inflation, have put a June rate cut into question. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market still expects a rate cut in June, with futures pricing data factoring in an 85% probability of a cut. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s press conference on May 1, 2024 and on the advance 1Q 2024 U.S. GDP report, which will be released on Thursday, April 25, 2024, at 8:30 am ET. Over the past ten years, the election year trend looks positive, with an average annual return of 13% – giving the markets more run room if the year stacks up to that average. However, the longer-term annualized trend is less favorable, with returns of under 3%. It’s important to remember that 2000 was the beginning of the Dot Com slide (with losses of up to -78% in the NASDAQ Composite Index). 2008 ushered in the Great Recession (with Dow Industrial Average losses of up to -55%). The U.S. market has surprised analysts with its ability to absorb higher interest rates. However, the cost has been unprecedented levels of debt. At some point, something has to give. Bottom Line We use technology almost every moment of our lives, and artificial intelligence is now imbedded in pretty much everything technology touches. If we want to add performance to our wealth plan, it’s important to have a large cap growth fund and to consider adding a separate hot slice of break-through technology (such as the TECB iShares fund). (If you didn’t earn 26% gains in stocks in 2023, then you might be missing these funds or investing too heavily in long-term bonds. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to receive an unbiased 2nd opinion to determine what is causing your wealth plan to lag the general market.) Funds help to smooth out the volatility of individual stocks. Dollar-cost averaging in our initial purchase is a good idea since AI stocks are trading at elevated valuations. Tesla and Apple are global premium, beloved brands. However, China is competing at home and abroad with more affordable products, and in Apple’s case, with outright restrictions. For these reasons, the Magnificent 7 is better thought of this year as the Fantastic 5. With stocks still close to all-time highs, debt at astronomical levels, wars and rising geopolitical tensions, and a contentious election on the horizon, April might be a great month to capture gains. (You’ve heard the market aphorism, “Sell in May and go away.” Rebalancing and proper diversification is a good application of this seasonal trend.) If you haven’t rebalanced recently, or if you’re not leaning into the hottest areas of the economy, now is the perfect time for a little Spring cleaning of your financial house. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt Reduction and Investing Solutions. China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. 9 Inflation, Budgeting, Debt & Investing Solutions. Save Thousands. Earn Money While We Sleep. In today’s inflationary world, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed, to put too much on our credit card, to get into trouble with debt, and to stop saving/investing toward our own future and for unforeseen emergencies. However, there are solutions that can reverse this trend, even in today’s world of high prices. The cure for a world that doesn’t add up lies in increasing our income and decreasing our expenses. That might feel impossible. Yet there are many ways that we can do this, nine of which are listed below. The changes we need to embrace are not found in the mainstream. (Otherwise, everyone would be adopting them, and we would all be living the life of our dreams!) We have to stop our money from flying out the window, and start keeping more of it for ourselves. When we learn how to: · Stop making everyone else rich at our own expense, · Keep more of our income with smarter choices, and · Start earning money while we sleep… We begin increasing our wealth and living a richer life. (It’s also better for the planet.) Here are the topics we will cover in the blog. Should I buy a home? Should I cut out café lattes and avocado toast? Should I move away from the expensive city? Almost half of my income is going on housing! I’m only spending $35 a week on gasoline and about $120 a month on utilities. Food has gotten so expensive! I’ll start investing once I pay off my debt Health Savings Account Which brokerage account should I open? And here is more information on each topic. Should I buy a home? Buying a home allows us to stop making the landlord rich. However, if we buy high and the value of our home drops precipitously, that could ruin our credit score, our lives, and our livelihood for a very long time. It’s important to know two key facts about homeownership, and to make sure that we are buying a home we can afford, for a good price, in a community with good neighbors. I outline 10 questions to ask/answer before buying a home in the Real Estate section of The ABCs of Money, 5th edition. What are two compelling facts about homeownership? Buying a home is highly correlated with wealth. The mean net worth of homeowners is nearly 10 times that of renters, at $1,530,900 versus $154,900 (source: Federal Reserve Board). Over 20 million American homes were foreclosed on before, during and after the Great Recession (source: AttomData). Should I cut out café lattes and avocado toast? Skipping daily Starbucks could save us $1825 or more every year. That’s a lot of money. If you’re making Starbucks rich, consider what you might enjoy a lot more than a warm drink. (Massages? A weekend getaway?) However, most of us are having trouble making ends meet because of the strangling costs of housing, transportation, insurance and food – our basic needs. If we can get creative about reducing those expenditures, we now have a springboard from which to launch the life of our dreams – to thrive, instead of feeling buried alive in bills. Keep reading for a few ideas. Should I move away from the expensive city? Many cities have become unaffordable. The temptation is to move away, and try to convince our employers to let us work from home. Working from home could save us thousands of dollars each year, and a boatload of time that we don’t spend commuting. Whether we stay in the metro or move to the suburbs, if we can work from home at least a few days of the week, we’ll save a lot of time and money. Cities offer metros, bike lanes and other affordable ways to get around. We don’t need to own a car or pay for car insurance, car payments, maintenance or gasoline in cities that offer these amenities. That’s potentially worth $8,000 or more on average per vehicle. If we move into a more affordable area for housing, we should factor in the extra money we’ll pay on transportation and the time we’ll spend sitting in traffic before we take the leap. There may be other ways to reduce our housing expenditures that won’t require gridlock. Since transportation is the biggest CO2 emitter in the U.S., city dwellers tend to have a much lower footprint than suburbanites. Almost half of my income is going on housing! When 30% or more of our budget is going toward housing, we might not have enough left over for food. Unplanned expenses might have to go on credit cards. This is a road to debt servitude. The way to thrive is to keep our basic needs under 50% of our income, including housing, transportation, taxes, food, insurance, etc. Read the Thrive Budget section of The ABCs of Money, 5th edition for a step-by-step guide on how to do this. One way that people are reducing their housing costs is by sharing a home. Intergenerational housing is higher today than it was in the Great Depression. Saving money on housing could mean that we have a down payment to buy a home in the coming years. Thinking of our parents, grandparents and kids in an intergenerational wealth plan is one of the most powerful ways to keep the money in the family and stop making the landlord rich. Every cent we own and every moment we spend is always an investment. Cohousing can also be a way to reduce student debt. Should you au pair while in college, or live with an elderly adult? Would both of you eat better as a result? Getting creative about the benefits of shared living space could be the biggest gamechanger in our budget, as that is by far one of the biggest expenses – adding up to tens of thousands of dollars saved annually! Cohabitating could save us almost $20,000 Cohousing is one way that single mothers can keep $19,000 or more a year for themselves, in savings on housing, groceries, childcare and transportation. Having another adult in the home gives us more personal time, which improves our mental health and decreases feelings of isolation. (There was a funny, classic play, film and TV show about two divorced men sharing an apartment, called The Odd Couple.) Check out my interview with CoAbode’s founder and chairman Carmel Boss at YouTube.com/NataliePace. FYI: As a young, single mother, I shared a home with another single mom. It was one of the pivotal choices I made to create this life that I love. Many other successful women have done the same, including Gloria Allred. I’m only spending $35 a week on gasoline and about $120 a month on utilities. $35/week is $1825/year. $120/month is $1440/year. Any corporation that can make the monthly bill low enough has a chance of attaching a leech to your body that siphons your money over to them. Think of all of these little bills, including streaming services, life insurance, email providers, banks, etc., and see just how many of them you really need. Is there a way that you can eliminate the bill altogether, or reduce the price dramatically? A personal energy audit could save us $4000 annually – more if your weekly gasoline or monthly utility bills are higher. As I mentioned above, the average person spends about $8,000/year on each vehicle, when you factor in the car payment, gasoline, insurance and maintenance. Imagine what kind of bucket-list vacation you might take, or how fast you could stockpile a down payment for a house, if you weren’t making the gas station, utility, insurance company and car manufacturer rich. Reducing our energy costs can be done with simple energy efficiency upgrades on our living space, and by carpooling, taking mass transportation and/or walking/biking more. Yes, this requires a little personal education and rethinking of our lifestyle. However, when the carrot can be so much money, it’s worth being courageous about our choices. Oftentimes, the change offers increased fun and health for us. For example, walking to the store and for errands, instead of driving, can improve our physical health. Food has gotten so expensive! Food costs increased 2.2% over the past year (source: BLS.gov). We’ve also discovered that some of our food has high levels of pesticides, which are unhealthful (could increase our medical costs). If we spend $250/month on produce, we could save $3,000/year by growing our own vegetables. If we live in an apartment or rent, this still might be possible in a community garden, like the Compton Community Garden. If we are busy professionals, there might be an organization that does this for us, like Good Neighbor Gardens. If we want to have healthier food choices and a more engaging learning environment for our children, there are many organizations that help us to plant student gardens. Check out the Kids and Food/Soil episodes of the Earth Gratitude docuseries for ideas and resources. I’ll start investing once I pay off my debt At the top of this blog, I said that one of the solutions to a budget that has us struggling to survive is to increase our income by earning money while we sleep. Investing allows us to do that. Compounding is so powerful that the sooner we start, the better off we’ll be for our entire life! Depositing 10% of our income into an IRA or 401(k) and having that 10% earn an annualized 10% gain means that we will have more money in our retirement account than we earn in 7 1/2 years, and our money makes more than us in 25 years. Think it’s hard to make a 10% annualized gain? The average returns of stocks over the last 30 years have been 10%. The S&P500 earned 26.3% in total return in 2023! A debt problem is a budgeting problem. So, the solutions outlined above will help us to stop putting bills on credit cards. Reducing the amount we owe can be a little trickier. There is a Debt section in The ABCs of Money, 5th edition, and a free video coaching series on the Thrive Budget Life Hacks at YouTube.com/NataliePace. The leaps we take to reclaim our life by earning money while we sleep and living within our means (with creative choices that keep the money in the family) go a long way to solving our debt problem. Health Savings Account If we are healthy and spending an arm and a leg on health insurance, health savings accounts could save us thousands annually. We’ll still have health insurance (at a very high deductible) for emergencies. However, we could save thousands annually in premiums, while also receiving a tax credit for the amount we deposit into our HSA. Learn more about HSAs in The ABCs of Money, 5th edition and at IRS.gov. Which brokerage account should I open? Since our goal is to stop making the taxman, the debt collector, the insurance salesman, the gas station, the utility company, etc. rich at our own expense, we want to be aware of all of the ways that we can pay less in taxes. The Health Savings Account mentioned above is one way. However, investing in tax protected retirement accounts is another. When we invest and compound within tax-protected retirement accounts, we avoid paying capital gains taxes. That can amount to savings of up to 37% of the gains. Billionaire Peter Thiel has $5 billion in his Roth IRA, according to ProPublica, which he never paid capital gains on, and will not even pay income taxes on when he starts his distributions (unless the laws change)! Billionaire Warren Buffett often admits that he pays a lower tax rate than his secretary. Each of his kids has their own foundation. (Protecting our wealth has a lot to do with setting up the proper accounts, organizations and corporations.) What kind of brokerage account should you open? Accounts to consider include:
Since retirement accounts allow us to invest and compound our gains without capital gains taxes, it’s a good idea to max out our contributions into these accounts and invest in them first, rather than just a traditional brokerage account. Bottom Line If we want to fly, we have to lighten our load. Earn more. Spend less. Invest more. Thrive more. When we learn the life math that we all should have received in high school, our life transforms immediately. When we start investing in things that we know and love, instead of just “paying bills,” our life will change immediately, and this world will become a much more beautiful place. A life like this increases in value every single day and becomes more valuable not just to us, but to those around us, as well. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest China & Russia Double Their Gold Holdings. 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. China and Russia Have Doubled Their Gold Holdings Since 2014. What does that mean for the prices of gold, silver and BRICS currency going forward? Will gold/silver mining companies like McEwen Mining benefit from this development? Be sure to check out my exclusive interview and podcast with McEwen Mining Chairman and Chief Owner Rob McEwen for his expert two cents on gold, silver and copper, and on the stellar rise in the share price of McEwen Mining over the last month. McEwen Mining (symbol: MUX) stock soared 66% after announcing earnings on Feb. 29, 2024. What has investors so thrilled? Should you dive in, too? Is now the time to take some ownership of their copper development mine in Argentina – which is designed to be the world’s 1st regenerative copper mine? Is the McEwen Mining stock undervalued? Could McEwen Mining actually hit $30/share? All this and more in my exclusive interview with McEwen Mining’s Chairman and Chief Owner Rob McEwen. Watch it back live at YouTube.com/NataliePace. Check out the vision that McEwen Mining has for its copper mine in Argentina. (Click to access.) Here are the points we’ll address in this blog. McEwen’s Huge Share Price Surge After Announcing 4Q 2023 Earnings What Lies Ahead for 2024? Los Azules Copper Mine Timeline Challenges of Development to Production The World’s 1st Regenerative Copper Mine Gold and Silver Prices. Will the End of the PetroDollar Cause Prices to Soar? Copper Prices. Up to 2021 Highs or Down to 2008 Lows? Is McEwen Mining Undervalued? And here is more color on each point. McEwen’s Huge Share Price Surge After Announcing 4Q 2023 Earnings As I mentioned at the top of this blog, McEwen Mining’s share price surged from $5.94 on Feb. 28, 2024 to $9.86 on March 28, 2024. 4th quarter revenue more than doubled year over year, and McEwen Mining earned a net profit of $54.7 million in 2023, up from a net loss of -$81.1 million in 2022. The move to profitability had a lot to do with moving McEwen Copper to its own set of books. The separation of McEwen Copper from McEwen Mining caused an accounting gain of $224 million, which was partially offset by a $37 million deferred tax impact, according to McEwen Mining CFO Perry Ing, speaking in the Q4 2023 conference call. McEwen’s mining operations are centered on gold and silver. However, a lot of the recent investor interest is associated with the copper mine. McEwen Copper has attracted investments from Rio Tinto and Stellantis, which reduced McEwen Mining’s stake in the venture to 47.7%. The copper development project in Argentina is pushing forward with a goal of completing a Feasibility Study in the first quarter of 2025. What Lies Ahead for 2024? Last year’s production was 154,600 ounces of GEOs. McEwen Mining’s 2024 projection is for 130,000-145,000. That is a reduction in output of 16%. Rob McEwen confirmed to me in our video conversation of March 28, 2024 that 1Q 2024’s earnings results could be softer than last year’s. Despite that, he still feels that McEwen Mining is undervalued. (He makes his case for this in our exclusive interview, which is available at YouTube.com/NataliePace and at https://nataliepace.substack.com/.) Gold and silver prices are rising. Gold just hit a new high of $2,256.90/ounce on Thursday, March 28, 2024. Gold began 2023 at $1857/ounce, rising to $1980/ounce by the end of March 2023. So, the rise in gold prices is a tailwind for McEwen. The majority of McEwen’s production is silver. Silver prices are flat year over year. However, with prices hovering in the $25/ounce range, there is still plenty of room to run back to the all-time high hit on March 31, 2011, of $48.70. Copper Mine Timeline The Los Azules copper mine Feasibility Study is due in the 1st quarter of 2025, after which there will be a “year of engineering before we put a shovel in the ground,” according to Rob McEwen, in the Q4 2023 conference call. Rob McEwen projects that the mine will become operational in 2029 or 2030. Challenges of Development to Production The challenges to the timeline include permitting (delays?), the political landscape (potentially disruptive), and climate and altitude (over 10,000 feet high). Chile’s copper mines became nationalized between 1967 and 1971; the country’s lithium reserves were nationalized in 2023 under leftist President Gabriel Boric. Argentina’s current President Javier Milei is an economist, so there is a lot of cautious optimism from the business community. However, legislators have blocked his reforms, and it remains to be seen how he will navigate the political environment. With copper being an essential metal in our world, in everything from computers, electric vehicles, wind, solar and electricity conduction, Argentina could potentially become the 3rd largest exporter of this important natural resource, behind Chile (#1) and Peru (#2). McEwen’s Copper mine is expected to have a 27-year lifespan. The World’s 1st Regenerative Copper Mine Rob McEwen firmly believes that responsible mining is essential. He’s fully aware that mining is hard on the environment. He is equally aware that without the natural resources provided by mining, modern life would come to a screeching halt. His solution is to create the world’s 1st regenerative copper mine. I encourage you to watch the company’s video to see how they plan to accomplish this. (Click to access the video.) I also encourage you to watch and listen to my interview with Rob McEwen, where he explains that mining has no choice but to become more sustainable, making the case as to why his mine can be one of the lowest cost mines in the industry. Gold and Silver Prices. Will the End of the PetroDollar Cause Prices to Soar? During our conversation on March 28, 2024, Rob McEwen pointed out that the end of the petrodollar was positive for gold and silver. Oil is one of the most widely traded commodities in the world. In the past, oil was traded in U.S. dollars. However, the BRICS* alliance and currency is determined to break the dollar monopoly. *Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa China and Russia began trading oil using the yuan, instead of the U.S. dollar, last year. According to Reuters, the yuan became the most widely-used currency for cross-border transactions in China for the first time in March 2023, above the dollar. Chi Lo, a senior investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong, predicted at the time that a long-term "snowball effect" would occur as more countries join the "RMB bloc" to reduce risks of dollar exposure, "especially after they've seen what the U.S.-led sanctions against Russia have done." Many of the BRICS nations have increased their holdings of gold over the last decade. Russia and China have more than doubled their holdings, to 2,329.6 and 2,245.3 ounces respectively, from 1,015.1 and 1,054.1 ounces in January 2014. India’s holdings have increased 45.7% over the same period. Copper Prices. Up to 2021 Highs or Down to 2008 Lows? The supply/demand equation is positive for copper prices to stay elevated between now and 2027. However, economic weakness can reduce demand sharply. As Rob McEwen pointed out, copper is called Dr. Copper because the prices tend to be negatively impacted in an economic slowdown or recession. Copper prices closed at $4.00/pound on Thursday, March 28, 2024. Prices rose as high as $4.71 in 2021. During the Great Recession, copper prices sank to a low of $1.40/pound. Analysts, including BloombergNEF, are projecting that increased demand and reduced supply could result in copper prices topping out again near or above the 2021 high, by 2027. Is McEwen Undervalued? With an implied value of $7.73/share for the McEwen Mining’s ownership of the copper asset, Rob McEwen makes a strong case that McEwen Mining is undervalued at $9.86/share. He believes the assets support a price as high as $30/share. As I’ve noted above, a lot can happen over a 5-6 year period, which is McEwen Copper’s projected timeline to production. Gold and silver have been two of the worst performing investments of the past decade. Millennials and Gen Z seem to prefer cryptocurrency as a safe haven and hedge. However, countries that are looking to break free from the petrodollar, including the BRICS nations, have been increasing their gold holdings. The BRICS currency is certainly gaining traction, and the countries' commitment has been solidified in the New Development Bank. According to Reuters, the UAE has joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is considering joining, but has not at this time. BRICS countries want to have a solid gold portfolio backing their currency promise. This is evident in their sovereign purchases of the precious metal. Bottom Line Investing in an individual microcap ($487.5 million value) is high-risk. While the McEwen Mining share price has soared 66% in the past month, it is still down -34% on the 5-year period. At the same time, smaller companies tend to fly higher when the wind is at their back. If gold and silver come into favor, and as we hear more hype and get closer to a production date for McEwen Copper, investors could become more enthusiastic. There are a lot of ifs in those sentences. However, BRICS is definitely on a path to de-dollarize the world economy, gold is being purchased by BRICS countries, and political/economic uncertainty (such as war and bank failures) favor safe havens, such as gold, silver and even cryptocurrency. Copper has been coined “the new oil” by Goldman Sachs. Between gold and silver, while gold is trading at an all-time high, silver is still down by almost half. Therefore, it seems that silver has a lot more runway to take off should precious metals cause investors to swoon again. Full disclosure: I own shares of McEwen Mining. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. 2024 Investment of the Year? Bitcoin is Up 50% This Year, after Soaring 171% in 2023. Will Bitcoin be the Investment of the Year? Will the halving event take Bitcoin to 361,000? With Bitcoin at $65,770, should we buy, sell or HODL? Are the Crypto Winters over? Cryptocurrency hit a new high on March 13, 2024 of $73,835.57. The Bitcoin halving is just a few weeks away. Historically, the halving has resulted in massive increases of Bitcoin value within a year, with Bitcoin increasing almost four-fold after the 2016 halving and over six-fold one year after the May 11, 2020 halving. Based on historic trends, CoinLedger.io is projecting that Bitcoin can hit $361,000 by April of 2025. It is important to note that there have also been severe Crypto Winters the 2nd year after each halving. So, how do you soar with the eagles without being frozen in the plunge? Do you incorporate a buy, sell, HODL or some other type of strategy? Here are a few things that I will cover in this blog. You can also watch my free videoconference or listen to my podcast. *Bitcoin. The Best Performer in 2023 and YTD 2024. *Bitcoin ETF. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? *Bitcoin halving. Will it soar? *How do we separate Bitcoin from FTX and the Sam Bankman-Fried's and Joff Paradise’s of the space? * Is cryptocurrency a safe haven, a currency, an HODL or a trader’s delight? *How do we profit without getting frozen in the Crypto Winters or crushed by the volatility? *Are we too late to profit, or will the crypto bull market keep raging? *Which coins? Which strategy? Which ETF? Which Wallet? And here is more information on each topic. *Bitcoin. The Best Performer in 2023 and YTD 2024. As you can see in the chart below, Bitcoin was the best performer by quite a substantial amount in 2023, with 171% gains. Those gains dwarf the returns of all of the other assets, including the much talked about 26.3% total return of the S&P500. Year to date, Bitcoin continues to soar. The S&P 500 has posted impressive gains of 10% in 2024. Meanwhile Bitcoin is up by 48%. *Bitcoin ETF. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? The Bitcoin ETF was approved on January 10, 2024. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? Fund companies like Black Rock’s iShares and Ark Investments are chomping at the bit for the approval. However, the SEC has slowed down the process of approving an ETF featuring the 2nd most widely held cryptocurrency. There’s no guarantee that there will be an Ethereum ETF, and there is also no evidence that there won’t be. Speculation abounds. We will know soon (summer?). Meanwhile, the good news is that the Bitcoin ETF had a halo effect, causing all cryptocurrencies to rally in 2023 and 2024. *Bitcoin halving. Will it soar? The Bitcoin halving event is expected to occur around April 15, 2024. As I mentioned above, CoinLedger.io is projecting a price of $361,000 for Bitcoin within a year after the 2024 halving. It’s important to remember that past performance is no resolute indicator of future performance. There are no guarantees that Bitcoin will soar after the halving event. However, safe havens are emotional investments. When we feel like the supply of something we want is being limited, the demand tends to increase, as does the price. The historical trend also includes Crypto Winters – usually the 2nd year after the halving event. Bitcoin dropped to a low of $3,129/coin on December 14, 2018, after hitting a high of $20,000 on Dec. 16, 2017. Bitcoin’s high of $69,000 on November 14, 2021 was short-lived as well, with the coin sliding back down to $15,460 by November 2022. So, we need to protect ourselves from the volatility, particularly when determining how to maximize gains. While Bitcoin is back to the 2021 highs, going through a long period of time when our net worth has been slashed by almost 80% is detrimental to more than just our fiscal health. It can harm our physical health, wipe out our FICO score, and cost us in many other ways, including putting some of our other assets (our home?) at risk. (Keep reading.) *How do we separate Bitcoin from FTX and the Sam Bankman-Fried's and Joff Paradise’s of the space? Kim Kardashian was fined $1.26 million on October 3, 2022 for the EthereumMax pump and dump scheme that she was paid to promote. Tom Brady, Gisele Bundchen, Stephen Curry, the Miami Heat and even Major League Baseball were all caught up in the FTX fraud and bankruptcy. There have been many examples of MLM scams and other ruses that target groups with exclusive opportunities of unbelievable gains. If you want to stay safer and avoid having to do extensive due diligence, stick with the Big 2: Bitcoin and Ethereum. Doing due diligence on cryptocurrency is very complicated. If you are being approached by email or online, that’s a red flag. (Check out 6 Red Flags in my FTX blog.) Celebrities are paid to promote, as are marketing and PR teams. Sam Bankman-Fried appeared on the cover of Fortune magazine, just a few months before FTX descended into bankruptcy, so reading articles might be misleading, as well. Voyager Digital claimed that customers’ cash deposits were FDIC insured, when they were not. CZ was forced out of his CEO role at Binance, and will be sentenced in April for failing to prevent money-laundering on the site. These are just some of the reasons why you don’t want to bet the farm, or drink the Kool-Aid promises offered by shoot-the-moon claims. * Is cryptocurrency a safe haven, a currency, an HODL or a trader’s delight? The average hold time for Bitcoin is under three months (87 days). For Ethereum, it is just 47 days. While there have been many memes suggesting that traders should hold on for dear life (HODL) to their coins, the whales are the ones making all the waves, and for them cryptocurrency is a trader’s delight. As for currencies, the entire point of having a unit that you can give to somebody for XYZ value is that tomorrow, next month or next year that token will still be worth XYZ. We can’t have a currency that is worth $70,000 one day, $15,000 the following year, and has a history of dropping as low as under $3,500. Sadly, during Crypto Winters, we see severe depression, bankruptcies, and even life-threatening or life-ending tragedies. The idea of a decentralized currency is very appealing to many of us, including A16Z. However, the only people who are using crypto as a currency these days are in the black market, where anonymity and money laundering are more important than price stability. For all of the reasons listed above, it’s very important to treat crypto as a hot investment rather than a safe haven, even though, as a perceived safe haven, Bitcoin or Ethereum could be a hedge against a weakening dollar, or if stocks head south. *How do we profit without getting frozen in the Crypto Winters and crushed by the volatility? Our nest egg chart system is a buy low, sell high plan on autopilot. When our plan is properly diversified and protected, regular rebalancing actually aids us in capturing gains when something hot catches on fire, while protecting us from the losses of Crypto Winters. Below is a sample pie chart. If we think of crypto as a hot slice or two of our well-diversified wealth plan, and that hot slice becomes 8 or 10 hot slices, it is screaming at us to capture gains (keep the money) and to trim the slice back to an appropriate percentage. If we really believe in Bitcoin, or whatever other cryptocurrency we have invested in, we’d still keep a hot slice or two, while also taking some of our gains off the table. That simple transaction affords us the liquidity to buy low if a Crypto Winter comes. It’s important to remember that most people don’t buy low because they can’t. When we hold onto investments that shoot the moon and then crash land, we don’t have any money to buy at a lower price. Our easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies with regular rebalancing is something that we teach in our Financial Freedom Retreats. Our next one is April 27-29, 2024. Email info@nataliepace.com or click on the banner below for additional information on this complete makeover, complete with testimonials, pricing, and other essential details. *Are we too late to profit, or will the crypto bull market keep raging? The historical halving chart that coinledger.io put together makes a compelling case for Bitcoin shooting the moon to potentially $361,000 between now and April 2025 – carrying a payload of most of the other cryptocurrencies along with it. However, it’s also important to remember that past performance does not necessarily equal future results. If we are already invested in crypto, it might actually be a good idea to capture gains and trim back our slices to an age-appropriate level, just in case there is a lot of volatility in the coming years. If we don’t have anything invested in Bitcoin or Ethereum yet, rather than just filling up one or two full slices right now at an all-time high, we could consider dollar-cost averaging in over the next six months. It is always important to make sure we invest an appropriate percentage of our wealth plan, based on our age and market conditions. So, if you haven’t mocked up your sample and holdings pie charts recently, it is a great idea to do this between now and the end of April. Email info@NataliePace.com if you’d like links to our free Nest Egg Pie Chart and Thrive Budget web apps, or if you might be interested in learning more about receiving an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan from me. *Which coins? Which strategy? Which ETF? Which Wallet? Which coins? As I indicated above, when we talked about celebrities getting paid to promote pump and dump schemes, investing in a new issue or fringe coin is risky. Most people just don’t have the skillset to do appropriate due diligence. Many of the social media personalities who claim that they do are actually getting paid to promote something. If you would like to invest in crypto in the safest way (there is still risk, as outlined above), going with Ethereum or Bitcoin is a good idea because they are well-capitalized with long histories. As for the strategy, I’ve made the case for Modern Portfolio Theory (often touted, while rarely used), hot slices, and regular rebalancing. You can learn a lot more about this at my Financial Freedom Retreat and in my books. At this point, the only ETF we can invest in is a Bitcoin ETF. However, it’s important to understand the fund company that we are purchasing our ETF from. We want to make sure the fund company is solid. BlackRock Inc., a publicly traded company with an AA- credit rating, has the iShares Bitcoin ETF: symbol: IBIT. Avoid companies you haven’t heard of that might be undercapitalized. If you’re interested in investing in individual coins, Coinbase is another publicly traded company that has been around for a long time – through multiple Crypto Winters. Hard wallets limit our ability to capture gains and buy low, as does staking. Bottom Line Bitcoin could easily be the Investment of the Year in 2024. It could also be the worst investment of 2025, just as it was in 2022. Using our pie chart system with regular rebalancing, including a dollar-cost averaging plan if we haven’t yet dabbled in crypto, can help to put us on the right side of the trade. Email info@nataliepace.com for pricing and information on our unbiased second opinion, or to register for our Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. We spend one full day on how to increase performance in our portfolio at our retreat. We also spend a day on how to make sure that our wealth is protected. Having that full-rounded education in the life math that we all should’ve received in high school is a game changer. Invest in the wisdom that will compound your gains now and into the future. As Benjamin Franklin said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Reddit IPO. Meme Stock Flying or Crashing in a Snap? Meta (Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp) is one of the Magnificent 7 and has soared to all-time highs this year with a market cap of over $1.23 trillion. Reddit is listing publicly this week, on March 21, 2024, with a more modest $6.5 billion valuation. Does that make Reddit a great investment opportunity, particularly if you are a Reddit moderator who has been invited to participate in the Direct Share Program? Will Reddit rocket up like a 2021 meme stock, or will it sink like Snap, Inc., which has lost -85% of its value since its September 2021 high of $83.11/share? (Snap is now trading at $11/share, with a market value of $18.5 billion.) Here are the things we will cover in this blog. Reddit Relevance & Ranking Will the Reddit IPO Shoot the Moon? Beware of Investors Jumping Ship: Founders Get Rich or True Investor Opportunity? Will the Reddit IPO Have a Crash Landing? Dependent on Advertisers & Selling User Data Cash Negative for 20 Years And here is more information on each point. Reddit Relevance & Ranking Reddit has street cred among its users and "aspires to be the heart of the Internet." Meme stocks, including the GameStop phenomenon, were launched and fueled in the Wall Street Bets subReddit community. Will loyal users and moderators want to become shareowners? Are Redditors worried about losing the things they love most about Reddit to profiteers, once the company is publicly owned? In terms of relevance, Reddit is not one of the more widely used social media platforms or apps, according to Comscore. In January 2024, Reddit ranked 31 in the Top 50 Multi-Platform Properties (Desktop, Mobile, and Social). Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Comcast (NBCUniversal), Facebook, Amazon, Walt Disney, Paramount Plus, Raptive and Apple are in the Top 10, in that order. Bytedance (the owner of TikTok) ranked 21. Reddit scored more unique visitors than Netflix (#43) in January. Snap wasn't in the Top 50. Reddit is not on the list of the Top 25 Smartphone Apps (source: Comscore). Youtube, Facebook, Gmail, Google Search, Google Maps, Amazon, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook Messenger and Google Play are the Top 10 Smartphone Apps. Snapchat is 21. Spotify is 11. Will the Reddit IPO Shoot the Moon? I perused some of the conversations on Reddit that are talking about the IPO. What I found was a lot of skepticism. Many of the commentators assumed it was just a way for the insiders to take the money and run, and speculated that once the website was beholden to quarterly earnings reports many of the free options they like would become premium features. On the popular WallStreetBets subreddit, most of the posts discussed shorting the stock. The few bullish commentators admitted that their opinions were unpopular. Users were also concerned about having their data sold. Although Reddit is currently heavily reliant upon advertising revenue, the company wants to expand into data licensing. According to the Reddit S-1 filing, Reddit expects “our growing data advantage and intellectual property to continue to be a key element in the training of future LLMs.” Artificial intelligence is hot on Wall Street, so it’s a smart move to position the company as providing important data to the giants in that space, like Nvidia. If Reddit becomes a player in artificial intelligence, the company could become more exciting. Of course, every social media company lays this claim, and many of them have a lot more traffic and users. Beware of Investors Jumping Ship: Founders Get Rich or Investor Opportunity? Reddit has been around for about 20 years and has never turned a profit. The net loss was lower in 2023 than in 2022, at $(90.8) million versus $(158.6) million in 2022. However, most of the cash-bleed curtailment was due to high interest rates, and the ability to earn some income on their marketable securities. You can bet that the VCs, founders and executives are chomping at the bit to turn some of their paper wealth into hard cash. According to the S-1 filing, the lockup period for insiders ends on the 3rd trading day after Reddit files their June 30, 2024 earnings report, or on August 22, 2024, whichever occurs first. Whatever happens on March 21, 2024, which is the first day of trading, late August should be a very active time for the Reddit stock. While VCs and insiders became billionaires by holding shares of the Facebook and Google IPOs, more recent unicorns have had trouble flying, including Snap, Inc., Lyft Inc., Robinhood and WeWork. We Co’s IPO crashed and burned in August of 2019. The company declared bankruptcy on Nov. 6, 2023. Snap has held on as a company, but is trading -35% under its IPO price of $17/share. Will Reddit Crash Land? The recent history of the IPOs of unicorns and technology/communications companies doesn’t augur well for Reddit. However, even though the meme stock mania is more humble these days, there is no free money being deposited into our accounts that we can play with, and the Crypto Winter has only recently defrosted, we’ve still seen euphoric buying in the Magnificent 7. Most of those companies have more than doubled in share price over the past year. According to Howard Silverblatt, the senior index analyst of the S&P500, "Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Amazon.com account for 60% of the year-to-date 7.28% return [of the S&P500] (with Nvidia accounting for 32%)." Reddit’s future might depend on its ability to sell its users’ data to artificial intelligence companies – a space that is currently the hottest story on Wall Street. So, even though Redditors aren’t very enthusiastic about the IPO at this time, if there is an exciting earnings report in Reddit’s near future, particularly if there is a jump in AI data licensing, the game could change quickly. If it happens before the insider lockup period ends, we could see the executives and VCs holding rather than selling, as Main Street investors pile in on the good news. If after, there could be a lot of volatility in 2024. There are a lot of if’s that will be resolved over the coming months. Dependent on Advertisers & Selling Data Positioning Reddit data for artificial intelligence learning is a relatively new venture for Reddit. Currently, most of the revenue is still tied to advertising. According to WARC Media, global advertising spend should increase 8.2% in 2024, to surpass a trillion dollars, with advertisers favoring digital platforms, such as Alpha, Meta, Amazon and Reddit. Political advertising will be rampant in 2024’s Presidential election. In 2023, Reddit’s revenue increased almost 25% over 2022, to $804 million from $667 million in 2022. During times of economic slowdowns, advertising is the canary in the coal mine, with ad spend getting chopped dramatically. Most analysts are predicting a soft landing with no recession in 2024. However, economic data is finicky. As an example, we thought we had beaten inflation, only to see the Consumer Price Index kick up to 3.2% year over year in February 2024. Cash Negative for 20 Years Meta is profitable. Weibo, the Twitter of China, is profitable. Snap Inc. has been cash negative since inception, as has Reddit. Small companies have more difficulty borrowing money, particularly if they haven’t found their pathway to profitability. Reddit’s current cash position is sound, with over $1.2 billion in cash and marketable securities. As I mentioned above, one of the biggest reasons that Reddit’s net loss was lower in 2023, was the return that they were able to make on their marketable securities. If interest rates get cut later this year, so will Reddit’s ability to earn a decent yield. If the company goes back to the 2022 cash burn rate, they cut their runway to profitability and could be flying too close to the trees. Investors will be looking at the bottom line, as much as the top line growth, over the next few earnings reports. Bottom Line Small caps have been punished by Wall Street of late, particularly cash negative companies. Insider liquidity events designed as IPOs have had a hard time getting off the ground over the past decade. The Reddit IPO doesn’t have the meme stock momentum that its platform stirred up for AMC and GameStop during the pandemic stimmy check anomaly. I would not be surprised if the projected Reddit share price of $31-$34 a share takes a nose dive after the IPO. The future of the company’s share price and valuation could be linked with AI and selling user data – something that their community might push back on. We’ll know more in the coming months – particularly in late August, when the company files their June 2024 earnings report and the insiders are freed up to sell. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Tesla Hit By Activists. Is That Why the Stock Is Near a 52-Week Low? Should You Buy Now? On Tuesday, March 5, 2024, the Volcano Group (activists) took down Tesla’s power in their German plant. It’s expected to cost the company a billion in damages and prevent the plant from building 1,000 vehicles each day. The company was reconnected to the grid today (March 11), and has advised that the resumption of production will be a gradual process. The automaker previously paused production at the end of January for two weeks due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Red Sea attacks. These two events could reduce the 1st quarter production by 20,000 vehicles or more. However, it’s unlikely to harm sales, as Tesla has been building up inventory and shouldn’t have trouble keeping up with deliveries. The bigger question is why is year-over-year revenue up only 3.0% at Tesla – one of the lowest growth on the auto stock report card. Can Tesla justify a $567 billion market cap and 41 P/E with low single-digit growth? Why did the company share price sink to just $178/share, after topping out at $299/share in July of 2023? Below are the issues we’ll cover in this blog. EV vs. ICE Sales Growth China EV Exports Price Wars Forward Outlook: Consumer Spending Consumer Debt + Rising Defaults on Auto Loans and Credit Cards The Higher the Dividend, the Higher the Risk And here is more information on each point. EV vs. ICE Sales Growth EVs continued their surge in the U.S. in 2023, with year-over-year sales growth of 46% and sales/leases of 1.1 million, according to Motor Intelligence. In the 4th quarter, EVs hit 8.1% market share (by volume). Tesla sold the majority of EVs in the U.S., with 654,888. (Tesla’s total sales for 2023 were 1.81 million, an increase of 38% YOY.) The real story is China, however. Inside EVs is reporting that 8 million plug-in electric vehicles were sold in China in 2023, amounting to 36.5% of the country’s auto market. 21.9 million cars were sold in China in 2023. Chinese EV Exports Chinese EVs are gaining in popularity around the world. Tesla’s Model Y was the top selling auto globally in 2023, with 1.2 million in sales (source: Tesla). However, exports of Chinese vehicles surged 63.7% in 2023 (source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), with 4.1 million vehicles exported. This puts China in 1st for auto exports, and Japan in 2nd with 3.6 million vehicles. (840,000 of Chinese vehicle exports went to Russia. European and Japanese carmakers pulled back on their sales there due to the war in Ukraine.) Price Wars It seems like every day there is another EV startup, and 2023 was the first year that China exported more cars than any country in the world. BYD Co., a Chinese carmaker that is not publicly traded in the U.S., is the top selling brand in China, with ½ of the bestselling cars. Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 are #1 and #3, respectively. BYD just lowered the price of its bestselling auto, the Yuan Plus crossover, to $16,644. GM (SAIC-GM-Wuling) is competing at the BYD price point in China with its Baojun Yep EV, with a price of just $11,900. That compares to the Tesla Y price of over $36,000 in China (and over $42,990 in the U.S.). China’s Nio makes luxury cars that compete directly with Tesla, Porsche and Mercedes. The price wars are happening at both ends of the price spectrum and are impacting profit margins. Many Chinese EV makers have declared bankruptcy or suspended operations, including Human Horizons and WM Motors. Lucid Motors saw its 4Q 2023 revenue decline by -39% year over year. GM and Ford have revised their plans to transition out of ICE (internal combustion engines) and into EVs, largely on concerns of profitability and the price wars. Email info@NataliePace.com if you’d like an Auto Stock Report Card. Forward Outlook: Consumer Spending Nio is projecting flat revenue and deliveries year over year for 1Q 2024. In their 4Q 2023 quarter earnings deck, Tesla admitted that “In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.” If the April 2nd 1Q 2024 Tesla deliveries report is lower than expected, disappointed investors could continue selling. (Nio is already trading at a 5-year low.) Tesla shares have already plunged -31.4% since the Dec. 27, 2023 high of $261/share, down to $179/share today. However, Tesla’s price-earnings ratio is still very elevated at 41. Tesla’s 1Q earnings report will be released around April 19, 2024. Price wars aren’t the only economic storm on the horizon. Consumer spending could become an issue, as well. The American consumer has been resilient amid the headwinds of inflation. However, the personal savings rate* is at an historic low and defaults on credit cards and auto loans have started to creep up. * The percentage of people's incomes left after they pay taxes and spend money. Consumer Debt + Rising Defaults on Auto Loans and Credit Cards U.S. household debt hit another all-time high of $17.5 trillion in the 4th quarter of December of 2023. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.” Auto loan delinquencies are still quite low, at just 2.66%, and the U.S. may avert a recession in 2024. However, it’s important to remember that carmakers struggle in slow economic and recessionary times. General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy in 2009. However, the companies’ troubles began years before the Great Recession. The Higher the Dividend, the Higher the Risk At today’s valuations, Tesla’s debt/equity ratio is just 0.08. By comparison, GM and Ford still have very elevated debt levels and D/E ratios, at 1.89 and 3.49, respectively. Tesla, like many growth companies, doesn’t pay a dividend. GM and Ford, like many legacy brands, do, with 1.22% and 4.83% yields, respectively. In today’s world, it’s very important to understand credit risk, and to note that much of the time, the higher the dividend, the higher the risk of losing principal. Bottom Line Autos don’t do well in slow economic or recessionary times. While electric vehicles remain the most exciting growth area of the automakers, the price wars and plethora of startups have complicated the opportunity for investors. Tesla’s high price, even with the 2024 pullback, could invite more profit-taking and selling, particularly if next month’s delivery and earnings reports are lower than expected. The heated competition in China, combined with Chinese equities being out of favor with U.S. investors, have drug the share prices of many former meme stock darlings, such as Nio and Xpeng, to 5-year lows. While the valuation and price of Nio is attractive and their cars are receiving great reviews – Nio cars have won awards in Germany, Sweden and Norway – the economic headwinds and competition could continue to weigh on the potential returns of all Chinese EVs. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email info@NataliePace.com to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.) Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions! Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. |
AuthorNatalie Pace is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, The ABCs of Money, The ABCs of Money for College, The Gratitude Game and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. She is a repeat guest & speaker on national news shows and stages. She has been ranked the No. 1 stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency, and has been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999. Archives
May 2024
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