2024 Investment of the Year?

Question Mark by Nevit Dilmen. Wiki Commons.

2024 Investment of the Year? Bitcoin is Up 50% This Year, after Soaring 171% in 2023.
 
Will Bitcoin be the Investment of the Year? Will the halving event take Bitcoin to 361,000? With Bitcoin at $65,770, should we buy, sell or HODL? Are the Crypto Winters over?
 
 
Cryptocurrency hit a new high on March 13, 2024 of $73,835.57. The Bitcoin halving is just a few weeks away. Historically, the halving has resulted in massive increases of Bitcoin value within a year, with Bitcoin increasing almost four-fold after the 2016 halving and over six-fold one year after the May 11, 2020 halving. Based on historic trends, CoinLedger.io is projecting that Bitcoin can hit $361,000 by April of 2025.

It is important to note that there have also been severe Crypto Winters the 2nd year after each halving. 

So, how do you soar with the eagles without being frozen in the plunge? Do you incorporate a buy, sell, HODL or some other type of strategy?
 
Here are a few things that I will cover in this blog. You can also watch my free videoconference or listen to my podcast.
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*Bitcoin. The Best Performer in 2023 and YTD 2024.
 
*Bitcoin ETF. Will there be an Ethereum ETF?
 
*Bitcoin halving. Will it soar?
 
*How do we separate Bitcoin from FTX and the Sam Bankman-Fried's and Joff Paradise’s of the space?
 
* Is cryptocurrency a safe haven, a currency, an HODL or a trader’s delight?
 
*How do we profit without getting frozen in the Crypto Winters or crushed by the volatility?
 
*Are we too late to profit, or will the crypto bull market keep raging?
 
*Which coins? Which strategy? Which ETF? Which Wallet?
 
And here is more information on each topic.
 
*Bitcoin. The Best Performer in 2023 and YTD 2024.
 
As you can see in the chart below, Bitcoin was the best performer by quite a substantial amount in 2023, with 171% gains. Those gains dwarf the returns of all of the other assets, including the much talked about 26.3% total return of the S&P500.
 

Bitcoin data provided by Coinbase.

Year to date, Bitcoin continues to soar. The S&P 500 has posted impressive gains of 10% in 2024. Meanwhile Bitcoin is up by 48%.

Bitcoin data provided by Coinbase.

*Bitcoin ETF. Will there be an Ethereum ETF?
 
The Bitcoin ETF was approved on January 10, 2024. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? Fund companies like Black Rock’s iShares and Ark Investments are chomping at the bit for the approval. However, the SEC has slowed down the process of approving an ETF featuring the 2nd most widely held cryptocurrency. There’s no guarantee that there will be an Ethereum ETF, and there is also no evidence that there won’t be. Speculation abounds. We will know soon (summer?). Meanwhile, the good news is that the Bitcoin ETF had a halo effect, causing all cryptocurrencies to rally in 2023 and 2024.

UPDATE ON Nov. 11, 2024: There are now Ethereum ETFs, including the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (symbol ETHA). 

*Bitcoin halving. Will it soar?
​
The Bitcoin halving event is expected to occur around April 15, 2024. As I mentioned above, CoinLedger.io is projecting a price of $361,000 for Bitcoin within a year after the 2024 halving.
It’s important to remember that past performance is no resolute indicator of future performance. There are no guarantees that Bitcoin will soar after the halving event. However, safe havens are emotional investments. When we feel like the supply of something we want is being limited, the demand tends to increase, as does the price.
 
The historical trend also includes Crypto Winters – usually the 2nd year after the halving event. Bitcoin dropped to a low of $3,129/coin on December 14, 2018, after hitting a high of $20,000 on Dec. 16, 2017. Bitcoin’s high of $69,000 on November 14, 2021 was short-lived as well, with the coin sliding back down to $15,460 by November 2022.
 
So, we need to protect ourselves from the volatility, particularly when determining how to maximize gains. While Bitcoin is back to the 2021 highs, going through a long period of time when our net worth has been slashed by almost 80% is detrimental to more than just our fiscal health. It can harm our physical health, wipe out our FICO score, and cost us in many other ways, including putting some of our other assets (our home?) at risk.  (Keep reading.)
 
*How do we separate Bitcoin from FTX and the Sam Bankman-Fried's and Joff Paradise’s of the space?
 
Kim Kardashian was fined $1.26 million on October 3, 2022 for the EthereumMax pump and dump scheme that she was paid to promote. Tom Brady, Gisele Bundchen, Stephen Curry, the Miami Heat and even Major League Baseball were all caught up in the FTX fraud and bankruptcy. There have been many examples of MLM scams and other ruses that target groups with exclusive opportunities of unbelievable gains. If you want to stay safer and avoid having to do extensive due diligence, stick with the Big 2: Bitcoin and Ethereum. 
 
Doing due diligence on cryptocurrency is very complicated. If you are being approached by email or online, that’s a red flag. (Check out 6 Red Flags in my FTX blog.) Celebrities are paid to promote, as are marketing and PR teams. Sam Bankman-Fried appeared on the cover of Fortune magazine, just a few months before FTX descended into bankruptcy, so reading articles might be misleading, as well. Voyager Digital claimed that customers’ cash deposits were FDIC insured, when they were not. CZ was forced out of his CEO role at Binance, and will be sentenced in April for failing to prevent money-laundering on the site. These are just some of the reasons why you don’t want to bet the farm, or drink the Kool-Aid promises offered by shoot-the-moon claims.
 
* Is cryptocurrency a safe haven, a currency, an HODL or a trader’s delight?
 
The average hold time for Bitcoin is under three months (87 days). For Ethereum, it is just 47 days. While there have been many memes suggesting that traders should hold on for dear life (HODL) to their coins, the whales are the ones making all the waves, and for them cryptocurrency is a trader’s delight.
As for currencies, the entire point of having a unit that you can give to somebody for XYZ value is that tomorrow, next month or next year that token will still be worth XYZ. We can’t have a currency that is worth $70,000 one day, $15,000 the following year, and has a history of dropping as low as under $3,500. Sadly, during Crypto Winters, we see severe depression, bankruptcies, and even life-threatening or life-ending tragedies. The idea of a decentralized currency is very appealing to many of us, including A16Z. However, the only people who are using crypto as a currency these days are in the black market, where anonymity and money laundering are more important than price stability.



For all of the reasons listed above, it’s very important to treat crypto as a hot investment rather than a safe haven, even though, as a perceived safe haven, Bitcoin or Ethereum could be a hedge against a weakening dollar, or if stocks head south.
 
*How do we profit without getting frozen in the Crypto Winters and crushed by the volatility?
 
Our nest egg chart system is a buy low, sell high plan on autopilot. When our plan is properly diversified and protected, regular rebalancing actually aids us in capturing gains when something hot catches on fire, while protecting us from the losses of Crypto Winters. Below is a sample pie chart.

If we think of crypto as a hot slice or two of our well-diversified wealth plan, and that hot slice becomes 8 or 10 hot slices, it is screaming at us to capture gains (keep the money) and to trim the slice back to an appropriate percentage. If we really believe in Bitcoin, or whatever other cryptocurrency we have invested in, we’d still keep a hot slice or two, while also taking some of our gains off the table. That simple transaction affords us the liquidity to buy low if a Crypto Winter comes. It’s important to remember that most people don’t buy low because they can’t. When we hold onto investments that shoot the moon and then crash land, we don’t have any money to buy at a lower price.
 
Our easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies with regular rebalancing is something that we teach in our Financial Freedom Retreats. Our next one is April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or click on the banner below for additional information on this complete makeover, complete with testimonials, pricing, and other essential details.
 
*Are we too late to profit, or will the crypto bull market keep raging?
 
The historical halving chart that coinledger.io put together makes a compelling case for Bitcoin shooting the moon to potentially $361,000 between now and April 2025 – carrying a payload of most of the other cryptocurrencies along with it. However, it’s also important to remember that past performance does not necessarily equal future results. If we are already invested in crypto, it might actually be a good idea to capture gains and trim back our slices to an age-appropriate level, just in case there is a lot of volatility in the coming years.
 
If we don’t have anything invested in Bitcoin or Ethereum yet, rather than just filling up one or two full slices right now at an all-time high, we could consider dollar-cost averaging in over the next six months. It is always important to make sure we invest an appropriate percentage of our wealth plan, based on our age and market conditions. So, if you haven’t mocked up your sample and holdings pie charts recently, it is a great idea to do this between now and the end of April. Email [email protected] if you’d like links to our free Nest Egg Pie Chart and Thrive Budget web apps, or if you might be interested in learning more about receiving an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan from me.
 
*Which coins? Which strategy? Which ETF? Which Wallet?
Which coins? As I indicated above, when we talked about celebrities getting paid to promote pump and dump schemes, investing in a new issue or fringe coin is risky. Most people just don’t have the skillset to do appropriate due diligence. Many of the social media personalities who claim that they do are actually getting paid to promote something. If you would like to invest in crypto in the safest way (there is still risk, as outlined above), going with Ethereum or Bitcoin is a good idea because they are well-capitalized with long histories.
 
As for the strategy, I’ve made the case for Modern Portfolio Theory (often touted, while rarely used), hot slices, and regular rebalancing. You can learn a lot more about this at my Financial Freedom Retreat and in my books.
 
At this point, the only ETF we can invest in is a Bitcoin ETF. However, it’s important to understand the fund company that we are purchasing our ETF from. We want to make sure the fund company is solid. BlackRock Inc., a publicly traded company with an AA- credit rating, has the iShares Bitcoin ETF: symbol: IBIT. Avoid companies you haven’t heard of that might be undercapitalized.
​
If you’re interested in investing in individual coins, Coinbase is another publicly traded company that has been around for a long time – through multiple Crypto Winters. Hard wallets limit our ability to capture gains and buy low, as does staking.
 
Bottom Line
Bitcoin could easily be the Investment of the Year in 2024. It could also be the worst investment of 2025, just as it was in 2022.

​Using our pie chart system with regular rebalancing, including a dollar-cost averaging plan if we haven’t yet dabbled in crypto, can help to put us on the right side of the trade.
 
 
Email [email protected] for pricing and information on our unbiased second opinion, or to register for our Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. We spend one full day on how to increase performance in our portfolio at our retreat. We also spend a day on how to make sure that our wealth is protected. Having that full-rounded education in the life math that we all should’ve received in high school is a game changer. Invest in the wisdom that will compound your gains now and into the future. As Benjamin Franklin said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”


Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. 
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Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. ​

"Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM

If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)

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Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.

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Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. 
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Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden.​

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.