Natalie Pace Blogs
Photo of Natalie Pace by Marie Commiskey. Avalon Photography.
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 The 15th BRICS Summit. (From left) President Lula da Silva of Brazil, President of China Xi Jinping, President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a family photo. Wiki Commons. China and Russia Have Doubled Their Gold Holdings Since 2014. What does that mean for the prices of gold, silver and BRICS currency going forward? Will gold/silver mining companies like McEwen Mining benefit from this development? Be sure to check out my exclusive interview and podcast with McEwen Mining Chairman and Chief Owner Rob McEwen for his expert two cents on gold, silver and copper, and on the stellar rise in the share price of McEwen Mining over the last month. McEwen Mining (symbol: MUX) stock soared 66% after announcing earnings on Feb. 29, 2024. What has investors so thrilled? Should you dive in, too? Is now the time to take some ownership of their copper development mine in Argentina – which is designed to be the world’s 1st regenerative copper mine? Is the McEwen Mining stock undervalued? Could McEwen Mining actually hit $30/share? All this and more in my exclusive interview with McEwen Mining’s Chairman and Chief Owner Rob McEwen. Watch it back live at YouTube.com/NataliePace. Check out the vision that McEwen Mining has for its copper mine in Argentina. (Click to access.) Here are the points we’ll address in this blog. McEwen’s Huge Share Price Surge After Announcing 4Q 2023 Earnings What Lies Ahead for 2024? Los Azules Copper Mine Timeline Challenges of Development to Production The World’s 1st Regenerative Copper Mine Gold and Silver Prices. Will the End of the PetroDollar Cause Prices to Soar? Copper Prices. Up to 2021 Highs or Down to 2008 Lows? Is McEwen Mining Undervalued? And here is more color on each point. McEwen’s Huge Share Price Surge After Announcing 4Q 2023 Earnings As I mentioned at the top of this blog, McEwen Mining’s share price surged from $5.94 on Feb. 28, 2024 to $9.86 on March 28, 2024. 4th quarter revenue more than doubled year over year, and McEwen Mining earned a net profit of $54.7 million in 2023, up from a net loss of -$81.1 million in 2022. The move to profitability had a lot to do with moving McEwen Copper to its own set of books. The separation of McEwen Copper from McEwen Mining caused an accounting gain of $224 million, which was partially offset by a $37 million deferred tax impact, according to McEwen Mining CFO Perry Ing, speaking in the Q4 2023 conference call. McEwen’s mining operations are centered on gold and silver. However, a lot of the recent investor interest is associated with the copper mine. McEwen Copper has attracted investments from Rio Tinto and Stellantis, which reduced McEwen Mining’s stake in the venture to 47.7%. The copper development project in Argentina is pushing forward with a goal of completing a Feasibility Study in the first quarter of 2025. What Lies Ahead for 2024? Last year’s production was 154,600 ounces of GEOs. McEwen Mining’s 2024 projection is for 130,000-145,000. That is a reduction in output of 16%. Rob McEwen confirmed to me in our video conversation of March 28, 2024 that 1Q 2024’s earnings results could be softer than last year’s. Despite that, he still feels that McEwen Mining is undervalued. (He makes his case for this in our exclusive interview, which is available at YouTube.com/NataliePace and at https://nataliepace.substack.com/.) Gold and silver prices are rising. Gold just hit a new high of $2,256.90/ounce on Thursday, March 28, 2024. Gold began 2023 at $1857/ounce, rising to $1980/ounce by the end of March 2023. So, the rise in gold prices is a tailwind for McEwen. The majority of McEwen’s production is silver. Silver prices are flat year over year. However, with prices hovering in the $25/ounce range, there is still plenty of room to run back to the all-time high hit on March 31, 2011, of $48.70. Copper Mine Timeline The Los Azules copper mine Feasibility Study is due in the 1st quarter of 2025, after which there will be a “year of engineering before we put a shovel in the ground,” according to Rob McEwen, in the Q4 2023 conference call. Rob McEwen projects that the mine will become operational in 2029 or 2030. Challenges of Development to Production The challenges to the timeline include permitting (delays?), the political landscape (potentially disruptive), and climate and altitude (over 10,000 feet high). Chile’s copper mines became nationalized between 1967 and 1971; the country’s lithium reserves were nationalized in 2023 under leftist President Gabriel Boric. Argentina’s current President Javier Milei is an economist, so there is a lot of cautious optimism from the business community. However, legislators have blocked his reforms, and it remains to be seen how he will navigate the political environment. With copper being an essential metal in our world, in everything from computers, electric vehicles, wind, solar and electricity conduction, Argentina could potentially become the 3rd largest exporter of this important natural resource, behind Chile (#1) and Peru (#2). McEwen’s Copper mine is expected to have a 27-year lifespan. The World’s 1st Regenerative Copper Mine Rob McEwen firmly believes that responsible mining is essential. He’s fully aware that mining is hard on the environment. He is equally aware that without the natural resources provided by mining, modern life would come to a screeching halt. His solution is to create the world’s 1st regenerative copper mine. I encourage you to watch the company’s video to see how they plan to accomplish this. (Click to access the video.) I also encourage you to watch and listen to my interview with Rob McEwen, where he explains that mining has no choice but to become more sustainable, making the case as to why his mine can be one of the lowest cost mines in the industry. Gold and Silver Prices. Will the End of the PetroDollar Cause Prices to Soar? During our conversation on March 28, 2024, Rob McEwen pointed out that the end of the petrodollar was positive for gold and silver. Oil is one of the most widely traded commodities in the world. In the past, oil was traded in U.S. dollars. However, the BRICS* alliance and currency is determined to break the dollar monopoly. *Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa China and Russia began trading oil using the yuan, instead of the U.S. dollar, last year. According to Reuters, the yuan became the most widely-used currency for cross-border transactions in China for the first time in March 2023, above the dollar. Chi Lo, a senior investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong, predicted at the time that a long-term "snowball effect" would occur as more countries join the "RMB bloc" to reduce risks of dollar exposure, "especially after they've seen what the U.S.-led sanctions against Russia have done." Many of the BRICS nations have increased their holdings of gold over the last decade. Russia and China have more than doubled their holdings, to 2,329.6 and 2,245.3 ounces respectively, from 1,015.1 and 1,054.1 ounces in January 2014. India’s holdings have increased 45.7% over the same period.  Source: The World Gold Council at Gold.org. Countries in black kept their holdings the same over the last three months. Countries in blue increased their gold, while those in red decreased. Copper Prices. Up to 2021 Highs or Down to 2008 Lows? The supply/demand equation is positive for copper prices to stay elevated between now and 2027. However, economic weakness can reduce demand sharply. As Rob McEwen pointed out, copper is called Dr. Copper because the prices tend to be negatively impacted in an economic slowdown or recession. Copper prices closed at $4.00/pound on Thursday, March 28, 2024. Prices rose as high as $4.71 in 2021. During the Great Recession, copper prices sank to a low of $1.40/pound. Analysts, including BloombergNEF, are projecting that increased demand and reduced supply could result in copper prices topping out again near or above the 2021 high, by 2027. Is McEwen Undervalued? With an implied value of $7.73/share for the McEwen Mining’s ownership of the copper asset, Rob McEwen makes a strong case that McEwen Mining is undervalued at $9.86/share. He believes the assets support a price as high as $30/share. As I’ve noted above, a lot can happen over a 5-6 year period, which is McEwen Copper’s projected timeline to production. Gold and silver have been two of the worst performing investments of the past decade. Millennials and Gen Z seem to prefer cryptocurrency as a safe haven and hedge.  However, countries that are looking to break free from the petrodollar, including the BRICS nations, have been increasing their gold holdings. The BRICS currency is certainly gaining traction, and the countries' commitment has been solidified in the New Development Bank. According to Reuters, the UAE has joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is considering joining, but has not at this time. BRICS countries want to have a solid gold portfolio backing their currency promise. This is evident in their sovereign purchases of the precious metal. Bottom Line Investing in an individual microcap ($487.5 million value) is high-risk. While the McEwen Mining share price has soared 66% in the past month, it is still down -34% on the 5-year period. At the same time, smaller companies tend to fly higher when the wind is at their back. If gold and silver come into favor, and as we hear more hype and get closer to a production date for McEwen Copper, investors could become more enthusiastic. There are a lot of ifs in those sentences. However, BRICS is definitely on a path to de-dollarize the world economy, gold is being purchased by BRICS countries, and political/economic uncertainty (such as war and bank failures) favor safe havens, such as gold, silver and even cryptocurrency. Copper has been coined “the new oil” by Goldman Sachs. Between gold and silver, while gold is trading at an all-time high, silver is still down by almost half. Therefore, it seems that silver has a lot more runway to take off should precious metals cause investors to swoon again. Full disclosure: I own shares of McEwen Mining. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to protect your wealth, hedge against a weaker dollar, invest and compound your gains, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)  Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.  Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions!  Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest 2024 Investment of the Year? The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Question Mark by Nevit Dilmen. Wiki Commons.  2024 Investment of the Year? Bitcoin is Up 50% This Year, after Soaring 171% in 2023. Will Bitcoin be the Investment of the Year? Will the halving event take Bitcoin to 361,000? With Bitcoin at $65,770, should we buy, sell or HODL? Are the Crypto Winters over? Cryptocurrency hit a new high on March 13, 2024 of $73,835.57. The Bitcoin halving is just a few weeks away. Historically, the halving has resulted in massive increases of Bitcoin value within a year, with Bitcoin increasing almost four-fold after the 2016 halving and over six-fold one year after the May 11, 2020 halving. Based on historic trends, CoinLedger.io is projecting that Bitcoin can hit $361,000 by April of 2025.  It is important to note that there have also been severe Crypto Winters the 2nd year after each halving.  So, how do you soar with the eagles without being frozen in the plunge? Do you incorporate a buy, sell, HODL or some other type of strategy? Here are a few things that I will cover in this blog. You can also watch my free videoconference or listen to my podcast. *Bitcoin. The Best Performer in 2023 and YTD 2024. *Bitcoin ETF. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? *Bitcoin halving. Will it soar? *How do we separate Bitcoin from FTX and the Sam Bankman-Fried's and Joff Paradise’s of the space? * Is cryptocurrency a safe haven, a currency, an HODL or a trader’s delight? *How do we profit without getting frozen in the Crypto Winters or crushed by the volatility? *Are we too late to profit, or will the crypto bull market keep raging? *Which coins? Which strategy? Which ETF? Which Wallet? And here is more information on each topic. *Bitcoin. The Best Performer in 2023 and YTD 2024. As you can see in the chart below, Bitcoin was the best performer by quite a substantial amount in 2023, with 171% gains. Those gains dwarf the returns of all of the other assets, including the much talked about 26.3% total return of the S&P500.  Bitcoin data provided by Coinbase. Year to date, Bitcoin continues to soar. The S&P 500 has posted impressive gains of 10% in 2024. Meanwhile Bitcoin is up by 48%.  Bitcoin data provided by Coinbase. *Bitcoin ETF. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? The Bitcoin ETF was approved on January 10, 2024. Will there be an Ethereum ETF? Fund companies like Black Rock’s iShares and Ark Investments are chomping at the bit for the approval. However, the SEC has slowed down the process of approving an ETF featuring the 2nd most widely held cryptocurrency. There’s no guarantee that there will be an Ethereum ETF, and there is also no evidence that there won’t be. Speculation abounds. We will know soon (summer?). Meanwhile, the good news is that the Bitcoin ETF had a halo effect, causing all cryptocurrencies to rally in 2023 and 2024. UPDATE ON Nov. 11, 2024: There are now Ethereum ETFs, including the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (symbol ETHA). *Bitcoin halving. Will it soar? The Bitcoin halving event is expected to occur around April 15, 2024. As I mentioned above, CoinLedger.io is projecting a price of $361,000 for Bitcoin within a year after the 2024 halving. It’s important to remember that past performance is no resolute indicator of future performance. There are no guarantees that Bitcoin will soar after the halving event. However, safe havens are emotional investments. When we feel like the supply of something we want is being limited, the demand tends to increase, as does the price. The historical trend also includes Crypto Winters – usually the 2nd year after the halving event. Bitcoin dropped to a low of $3,129/coin on December 14, 2018, after hitting a high of $20,000 on Dec. 16, 2017. Bitcoin’s high of $69,000 on November 14, 2021 was short-lived as well, with the coin sliding back down to $15,460 by November 2022. So, we need to protect ourselves from the volatility, particularly when determining how to maximize gains. While Bitcoin is back to the 2021 highs, going through a long period of time when our net worth has been slashed by almost 80% is detrimental to more than just our fiscal health. It can harm our physical health, wipe out our FICO score, and cost us in many other ways, including putting some of our other assets (our home?) at risk. (Keep reading.) *How do we separate Bitcoin from FTX and the Sam Bankman-Fried's and Joff Paradise’s of the space? Kim Kardashian was fined $1.26 million on October 3, 2022 for the EthereumMax pump and dump scheme that she was paid to promote. Tom Brady, Gisele Bundchen, Stephen Curry, the Miami Heat and even Major League Baseball were all caught up in the FTX fraud and bankruptcy. There have been many examples of MLM scams and other ruses that target groups with exclusive opportunities of unbelievable gains. If you want to stay safer and avoid having to do extensive due diligence, stick with the Big 2: Bitcoin and Ethereum. Doing due diligence on cryptocurrency is very complicated. If you are being approached by email or online, that’s a red flag. (Check out 6 Red Flags in my FTX blog.) Celebrities are paid to promote, as are marketing and PR teams. Sam Bankman-Fried appeared on the cover of Fortune magazine, just a few months before FTX descended into bankruptcy, so reading articles might be misleading, as well. Voyager Digital claimed that customers’ cash deposits were FDIC insured, when they were not. CZ was forced out of his CEO role at Binance, and will be sentenced in April for failing to prevent money-laundering on the site. These are just some of the reasons why you don’t want to bet the farm, or drink the Kool-Aid promises offered by shoot-the-moon claims. * Is cryptocurrency a safe haven, a currency, an HODL or a trader’s delight? The average hold time for Bitcoin is under three months (87 days). For Ethereum, it is just 47 days. While there have been many memes suggesting that traders should hold on for dear life (HODL) to their coins, the whales are the ones making all the waves, and for them cryptocurrency is a trader’s delight. As for currencies, the entire point of having a unit that you can give to somebody for XYZ value is that tomorrow, next month or next year that token will still be worth XYZ. We can’t have a currency that is worth $70,000 one day, $15,000 the following year, and has a history of dropping as low as under $3,500. Sadly, during Crypto Winters, we see severe depression, bankruptcies, and even life-threatening or life-ending tragedies. The idea of a decentralized currency is very appealing to many of us, including A16Z. However, the only people who are using crypto as a currency these days are in the black market, where anonymity and money laundering are more important than price stability. For all of the reasons listed above, it’s very important to treat crypto as a hot investment rather than a safe haven, even though, as a perceived safe haven, Bitcoin or Ethereum could be a hedge against a weakening dollar, or if stocks head south. *How do we profit without getting frozen in the Crypto Winters and crushed by the volatility? Our nest egg chart system is a buy low, sell high plan on autopilot. When our plan is properly diversified and protected, regular rebalancing actually aids us in capturing gains when something hot catches on fire, while protecting us from the losses of Crypto Winters. Below is a sample pie chart.  If we think of crypto as a hot slice or two of our well-diversified wealth plan, and that hot slice becomes 8 or 10 hot slices, it is screaming at us to capture gains (keep the money) and to trim the slice back to an appropriate percentage. If we really believe in Bitcoin, or whatever other cryptocurrency we have invested in, we’d still keep a hot slice or two, while also taking some of our gains off the table. That simple transaction affords us the liquidity to buy low if a Crypto Winter comes. It’s important to remember that most people don’t buy low because they can’t. When we hold onto investments that shoot the moon and then crash land, we don’t have any money to buy at a lower price. Our easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies with regular rebalancing is something that we teach in our Financial Freedom Retreats. Our next one is April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or click on the banner below for additional information on this complete makeover, complete with testimonials, pricing, and other essential details. *Are we too late to profit, or will the crypto bull market keep raging? The historical halving chart that coinledger.io put together makes a compelling case for Bitcoin shooting the moon to potentially $361,000 between now and April 2025 – carrying a payload of most of the other cryptocurrencies along with it. However, it’s also important to remember that past performance does not necessarily equal future results. If we are already invested in crypto, it might actually be a good idea to capture gains and trim back our slices to an age-appropriate level, just in case there is a lot of volatility in the coming years. If we don’t have anything invested in Bitcoin or Ethereum yet, rather than just filling up one or two full slices right now at an all-time high, we could consider dollar-cost averaging in over the next six months. It is always important to make sure we invest an appropriate percentage of our wealth plan, based on our age and market conditions. So, if you haven’t mocked up your sample and holdings pie charts recently, it is a great idea to do this between now and the end of April. Email [email protected] if you’d like links to our free Nest Egg Pie Chart and Thrive Budget web apps, or if you might be interested in learning more about receiving an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan from me. *Which coins? Which strategy? Which ETF? Which Wallet? Which coins? As I indicated above, when we talked about celebrities getting paid to promote pump and dump schemes, investing in a new issue or fringe coin is risky. Most people just don’t have the skillset to do appropriate due diligence. Many of the social media personalities who claim that they do are actually getting paid to promote something. If you would like to invest in crypto in the safest way (there is still risk, as outlined above), going with Ethereum or Bitcoin is a good idea because they are well-capitalized with long histories. As for the strategy, I’ve made the case for Modern Portfolio Theory (often touted, while rarely used), hot slices, and regular rebalancing. You can learn a lot more about this at my Financial Freedom Retreat and in my books. At this point, the only ETF we can invest in is a Bitcoin ETF. However, it’s important to understand the fund company that we are purchasing our ETF from. We want to make sure the fund company is solid. BlackRock Inc., a publicly traded company with an AA- credit rating, has the iShares Bitcoin ETF: symbol: IBIT. Avoid companies you haven’t heard of that might be undercapitalized. If you’re interested in investing in individual coins, Coinbase is another publicly traded company that has been around for a long time – through multiple Crypto Winters. Hard wallets limit our ability to capture gains and buy low, as does staking. Bottom Line Bitcoin could easily be the Investment of the Year in 2024. It could also be the worst investment of 2025, just as it was in 2022.  Using our pie chart system with regular rebalancing, including a dollar-cost averaging plan if we haven’t yet dabbled in crypto, can help to put us on the right side of the trade. Email [email protected] for pricing and information on our unbiased second opinion, or to register for our Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. We spend one full day on how to increase performance in our portfolio at our retreat. We also spend a day on how to make sure that our wealth is protected. Having that full-rounded education in the life math that we all should’ve received in high school is a game changer. Invest in the wisdom that will compound your gains now and into the future. As Benjamin Franklin said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)  Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.  Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions!  Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest The Reddit IPO. Meme Stock or Snap Land? Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Reddit IPO. Meme Stock Flying or Crashing in a Snap? Meta (Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp) is one of the Magnificent 7 and has soared to all-time highs this year with a market cap of over $1.23 trillion. Reddit is listing publicly this week, on March 21, 2024, with a more modest $6.5 billion valuation. Does that make Reddit a great investment opportunity, particularly if you are a Reddit moderator who has been invited to participate in the Direct Share Program? Will Reddit rocket up like a 2021 meme stock, or will it sink like Snap, Inc., which has lost -85% of its value since its September 2021 high of $83.11/share? (Snap is now trading at $11/share, with a market value of $18.5 billion.) Here are the things we will cover in this blog. Reddit Relevance & Ranking Will the Reddit IPO Shoot the Moon? Beware of Investors Jumping Ship: Founders Get Rich or True Investor Opportunity? Will the Reddit IPO Have a Crash Landing? Dependent on Advertisers & Selling User Data Cash Negative for 20 Years And here is more information on each point. Reddit Relevance & Ranking Reddit has street cred among its users and "aspires to be the heart of the Internet." Meme stocks, including the GameStop phenomenon, were launched and fueled in the Wall Street Bets subReddit community. Will loyal users and moderators want to become shareowners? Are Redditors worried about losing the things they love most about Reddit to profiteers, once the company is publicly owned? In terms of relevance, Reddit is not one of the more widely used social media platforms or apps, according to Comscore. In January 2024, Reddit ranked 31 in the Top 50 Multi-Platform Properties (Desktop, Mobile, and Social). Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, Comcast (NBCUniversal), Facebook, Amazon, Walt Disney, Paramount Plus, Raptive and Apple are in the Top 10, in that order. Bytedance (the owner of TikTok) ranked 21. Reddit scored more unique visitors than Netflix (#43) in January. Snap wasn't in the Top 50. Reddit is not on the list of the Top 25 Smartphone Apps (source: Comscore). Youtube, Facebook, Gmail, Google Search, Google Maps, Amazon, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook Messenger and Google Play are the Top 10 Smartphone Apps. Snapchat is 21. Spotify is 11. Will the Reddit IPO Shoot the Moon? I perused some of the conversations on Reddit that are talking about the IPO. What I found was a lot of skepticism. Many of the commentators assumed it was just a way for the insiders to take the money and run, and speculated that once the website was beholden to quarterly earnings reports many of the free options they like would become premium features. On the popular WallStreetBets subreddit, most of the posts discussed shorting the stock. The few bullish commentators admitted that their opinions were unpopular. Users were also concerned about having their data sold. Although Reddit is currently heavily reliant upon advertising revenue, the company wants to expand into data licensing. According to the Reddit S-1 filing, Reddit expects “our growing data advantage and intellectual property to continue to be a key element in the training of future LLMs.” Artificial intelligence is hot on Wall Street, so it’s a smart move to position the company as providing important data to the giants in that space, like Nvidia. If Reddit becomes a player in artificial intelligence, the company could become more exciting. Of course, every social media company lays this claim, and many of them have a lot more traffic and users. Beware of Investors Jumping Ship: Founders Get Rich or Investor Opportunity? Reddit has been around for about 20 years and has never turned a profit. The net loss was lower in 2023 than in 2022, at $(90.8) million versus $(158.6) million in 2022. However, most of the cash-bleed curtailment was due to high interest rates, and the ability to earn some income on their marketable securities. You can bet that the VCs, founders and executives are chomping at the bit to turn some of their paper wealth into hard cash. According to the S-1 filing, the lockup period for insiders ends on the 3rd trading day after Reddit files their June 30, 2024 earnings report, or on August 22, 2024, whichever occurs first. Whatever happens on March 21, 2024, which is the first day of trading, late August should be a very active time for the Reddit stock. While VCs and insiders became billionaires by holding shares of the Facebook and Google IPOs, more recent unicorns have had trouble flying, including Snap, Inc., Lyft Inc., Robinhood and WeWork. We Co’s IPO crashed and burned in August of 2019. The company declared bankruptcy on Nov. 6, 2023. Snap has held on as a company, but is trading -35% under its IPO price of $17/share.  Snap Inc. launched Spectacles right before their IPO. Reddit is making a play for selling user data to artificial intelligence companies. Is this a good story or a real opportunity? Will Reddit Crash Land? The recent history of the IPOs of unicorns and technology/communications companies doesn’t augur well for Reddit. However, even though the meme stock mania is more humble these days, there is no free money being deposited into our accounts that we can play with, and the Crypto Winter has only recently defrosted, we’ve still seen euphoric buying in the Magnificent 7. Most of those companies have more than doubled in share price over the past year. According to Howard Silverblatt, the senior index analyst of the S&P500, "Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Amazon.com account for 60% of the year-to-date 7.28% return [of the S&P500] (with Nvidia accounting for 32%)." Reddit’s future might depend on its ability to sell its users’ data to artificial intelligence companies – a space that is currently the hottest story on Wall Street. So, even though Redditors aren’t very enthusiastic about the IPO at this time, if there is an exciting earnings report in Reddit’s near future, particularly if there is a jump in AI data licensing, the game could change quickly. If it happens before the insider lockup period ends, we could see the executives and VCs holding rather than selling, as Main Street investors pile in on the good news. If after, there could be a lot of volatility in 2024. There are a lot of if’s that will be resolved over the coming months. Dependent on Advertisers & Selling Data Positioning Reddit data for artificial intelligence learning is a relatively new venture for Reddit. Currently, most of the revenue is still tied to advertising. According to WARC Media, global advertising spend should increase 8.2% in 2024, to surpass a trillion dollars, with advertisers favoring digital platforms, such as Alpha, Meta, Amazon and Reddit. Political advertising will be rampant in 2024’s Presidential election. In 2023, Reddit’s revenue increased almost 25% over 2022, to $804 million from $667 million in 2022. During times of economic slowdowns, advertising is the canary in the coal mine, with ad spend getting chopped dramatically. Most analysts are predicting a soft landing with no recession in 2024. However, economic data is finicky. As an example, we thought we had beaten inflation, only to see the Consumer Price Index kick up to 3.2% year over year in February 2024. Cash Negative for 20 Years Meta is profitable. Weibo, the Twitter of China, is profitable. Snap Inc. has been cash negative since inception, as has Reddit. Small companies have more difficulty borrowing money, particularly if they haven’t found their pathway to profitability. Reddit’s current cash position is sound, with over $1.2 billion in cash and marketable securities. As I mentioned above, one of the biggest reasons that Reddit’s net loss was lower in 2023, was the return that they were able to make on their marketable securities. If interest rates get cut later this year, so will Reddit’s ability to earn a decent yield. If the company goes back to the 2022 cash burn rate, they cut their runway to profitability and could be flying too close to the trees. Investors will be looking at the bottom line, as much as the top line growth, over the next few earnings reports. Bottom Line Small caps have been punished by Wall Street of late, particularly cash negative companies. Insider liquidity events designed as IPOs have had a hard time getting off the ground over the past decade. The Reddit IPO doesn’t have the meme stock momentum that its platform stirred up for AMC and GameStop during the pandemic stimmy check anomaly. I would not be surprised if the projected Reddit share price of $31-$34 a share takes a nose dive after the IPO. The future of the company’s share price and valuation could be linked with AI and selling user data – something that their community might push back on. We’ll know more in the coming months – particularly in late August, when the company files their June 2024 earnings report and the insiders are freed up to sell. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), how to evaluate IPOs and other stocks, and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)  Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.  Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions!  Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Tesla's Factory in Germany Taken Offline by Activists. Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Tesla Hit By Activists. Is That Why the Stock Is Near a 52-Week Low? Should You Buy Now? On Tuesday, March 5, 2024, the Volcano Group (activists) took down Tesla’s power in their German plant. It’s expected to cost the company a billion in damages and prevent the plant from building 1,000 vehicles each day. The company was reconnected to the grid today (March 11), and has advised that the resumption of production will be a gradual process. The automaker previously paused production at the end of January for two weeks due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Red Sea attacks. These two events could reduce the 1st quarter production by 20,000 vehicles or more. However, it’s unlikely to harm sales, as Tesla has been building up inventory and shouldn’t have trouble keeping up with deliveries. The bigger question is why is year-over-year revenue up only 3.0% at Tesla – one of the lowest growth on the auto stock report card. Can Tesla justify a $567 billion market cap and 41 P/E with low single-digit growth? Why did the company share price sink to just $178/share, after topping out at $299/share in July of 2023? Below are the issues we’ll cover in this blog. EV vs. ICE Sales Growth China EV Exports Price Wars Forward Outlook: Consumer Spending Consumer Debt + Rising Defaults on Auto Loans and Credit Cards The Higher the Dividend, the Higher the Risk And here is more information on each point. EV vs. ICE Sales Growth EVs continued their surge in the U.S. in 2023, with year-over-year sales growth of 46% and sales/leases of 1.1 million, according to Motor Intelligence. In the 4th quarter, EVs hit 8.1% market share (by volume). Tesla sold the majority of EVs in the U.S., with 654,888. (Tesla’s total sales for 2023 were 1.81 million, an increase of 38% YOY.) The real story is China, however. Inside EVs is reporting that 8 million plug-in electric vehicles were sold in China in 2023, amounting to 36.5% of the country’s auto market. 21.9 million cars were sold in China in 2023. Chinese EV Exports Chinese EVs are gaining in popularity around the world. Tesla’s Model Y was the top selling auto globally in 2023, with 1.2 million in sales (source: Tesla). However, exports of Chinese vehicles surged 63.7% in 2023 (source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), with 4.1 million vehicles exported. This puts China in 1st for auto exports, and Japan in 2nd with 3.6 million vehicles. (840,000 of Chinese vehicle exports went to Russia. European and Japanese carmakers pulled back on their sales there due to the war in Ukraine.) Price Wars It seems like every day there is another EV startup, and 2023 was the first year that China exported more cars than any country in the world. BYD Co., a Chinese carmaker that is not publicly traded in the U.S., is the top selling brand in China, with ½ of the bestselling cars. Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 are #1 and #3, respectively. BYD just lowered the price of its bestselling auto, the Yuan Plus crossover, to $16,644. GM (SAIC-GM-Wuling) is competing at the BYD price point in China with its Baojun Yep EV, with a price of just $11,900.  The Baojun Yep EV, starting at just $11,900, is General Motors' joint venture in China with SAIC-GM-Wuling. That compares to the Tesla Y price of over $36,000 in China (and over $42,990 in the U.S.). China’s Nio makes luxury cars that compete directly with Tesla, Porsche and Mercedes. The price wars are happening at both ends of the price spectrum and are impacting profit margins. Many Chinese EV makers have declared bankruptcy or suspended operations, including Human Horizons and WM Motors. Lucid Motors saw its 4Q 2023 revenue decline by -39% year over year. GM and Ford have revised their plans to transition out of ICE (internal combustion engines) and into EVs, largely on concerns of profitability and the price wars. Email [email protected] if you’d like an Auto Stock Report Card. Forward Outlook: Consumer Spending Nio is projecting flat revenue and deliveries year over year for 1Q 2024. In their 4Q 2023 quarter earnings deck, Tesla admitted that “In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.” If the April 2nd 1Q 2024 Tesla deliveries report is lower than expected, disappointed investors could continue selling. (Nio is already trading at a 5-year low.) Tesla shares have already plunged -31.4% since the Dec. 27, 2023 high of $261/share, down to $179/share today. However, Tesla’s price-earnings ratio is still very elevated at 41. Tesla’s 1Q earnings report will be released around April 19, 2024. Price wars aren’t the only economic storm on the horizon. Consumer spending could become an issue, as well. The American consumer has been resilient amid the headwinds of inflation. However, the personal savings rate* is at an historic low and defaults on credit cards and auto loans have started to creep up. * The percentage of people's incomes left after they pay taxes and spend money.  Consumer Debt + Rising Defaults on Auto Loans and Credit Cards U.S. household debt hit another all-time high of $17.5 trillion in the 4th quarter of December of 2023. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.” Auto loan delinquencies are still quite low, at just 2.66%, and the U.S. may avert a recession in 2024. However, it’s important to remember that carmakers struggle in slow economic and recessionary times. General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy in 2009. However, the companies’ troubles began years before the Great Recession. The Higher the Dividend, the Higher the Risk At today’s valuations, Tesla’s debt/equity ratio is just 0.08. By comparison, GM and Ford still have very elevated debt levels and D/E ratios, at 1.89 and 3.49, respectively. Tesla, like many growth companies, doesn’t pay a dividend. GM and Ford, like many legacy brands, do, with 1.22% and 4.83% yields, respectively. In today’s world, it’s very important to understand credit risk, and to note that much of the time, the higher the dividend, the higher the risk of losing principal. Bottom Line Autos don’t do well in slow economic or recessionary times. While electric vehicles remain the most exciting growth area of the automakers, the price wars and plethora of startups have complicated the opportunity for investors. Tesla’s high price, even with the 2024 pullback, could invite more profit-taking and selling, particularly if next month’s delivery and earnings reports are lower than expected. The heated competition in China, combined with Chinese equities being out of favor with U.S. investors, have drug the share prices of many former meme stock darlings, such as Nio and Xpeng, to 5-year lows. While the valuation and price of Nio is attractive and their cars are receiving great reviews – Nio cars have won awards in Germany, Sweden and Norway – the economic headwinds and competition could continue to weigh on the potential returns of all Chinese EVs. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence and EVs), and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)  Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.  Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions!  Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Bitcoin Sets a New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Bitcoin Sets New Record High. The Importance of Rebalancing. Updated May 31, 2024. Bitcoin’s all-time high of $69,000/coin was hit on November 9, 2021. Yesterday, Bitcoin set a new record of $69,324/coin, but has since retreated back to $67,000. That’s great news for anyone who has lived through the long Crypto Winter that began after that November 2021 high. Bitcoin dropped as low as $15,460 by Nov 20, 2022, just one year later. Total gains since that Nov. 2022 low are 333% for the best performing asset – far above the 24.3% gains in the S&P500 and the 105% gains of the Magnificent 7 in 2023. However, that’s quite a rollercoaster ride. Is HODL really the best strategy? Many lessons that apply to Bitcoin also apply to our entire nest egg. Below are a few of the things we will cover in this blog. Crypto: Currency, Safe Haven, Buy and HODL, or Get Rich Quick Scheme? Hot Industries The Importance of Rebalancing Staking The Magnificent 7 Clean Energy Which Coin is Right for You? And here is more information on each of the topics. Crypto: Currency, Safe Haven, Buy and HODL, or Get Rich Quick Scheme? Crypto is largely a trader’s platform. The average holding time of Bitcoin and Ethereum is less than three months. When we HODL, especially if we buy at the top, we are krill playing into the profits and high-frequency trading of the whales. Although a lot of people consider cryptocurrency to be a safe haven, or even the only kind of currency that will be worth anything when the dollar becomes completely worthless, you can’t have a currency that is worth $69,000 one month and $16,000 the next month. The whole point of currency is that the value will remain constant. Due to the share price volatility, the only people really using crypto as a currency are those who are operating in the shadows, with that concern being far greater than price stability. Many predators prey on our emotions, using scare tactics to prompt action, claiming that their ruse is the only cure. Another problem that prevents Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency from becoming widely adopted is the limitation on certain coin mining and the plethora of coin options to choose from. Imagine the hassle of carrying a wallet full of pounds, yen, euros and dollars. Tesla accepted Bitcoin for a hot minute, but now only accepts Dogecoin for a very limited product offering. Few other companies accept cryptocurrency at all. Additionally, crypto mining is not very planet friendly. Global Bitcoin mining consumed 173.42 TW hours of electricity between 2020 and 2021, ranking it 27th in the world if it were a country. Water usage was enough to feed 300 million people in rural sub-Saharan Africa and the land footprint was bigger than Los Angeles. Bitcoin minors are trying to address this with cleaner energy. However, the CO2 emissions are still currently a problem, and even clean energy requires a lot of CO2 to create. Because the price of crypto is so volatile, it's better to use any investment as a slice of a well-diversified, age-appropriate wealth plan. Hot Industries Safe havens, like crypto and gold, are very volatile. Gold was one of the worst performers of the last decade. After the highs of $800/ounce in 1980, gold plunged by almost half in 1981, sank down to $376/ounce by 1982 and stayed in that range until 2006 – for a doldrums that lasted a quarter of a century! (Bonds were worse; if you don't know how to preserve your wealth in a Debt World, join us at our next Financial Freedom Retreat.)  When we think of an investment that can hold strong in weak economic times, it’s a better idea to consider the safe haven as a slice of our overall diversification plan, rather than the one and only thing we believe in. Whether it is crypto or gold, the swings in investor sentiment are wild, and the periods of it being out of favor can be epic. When our safe haven is a slice or two of our nest egg plan, we can preserve our wealth, while limiting the wild swings in our personal net worth. It also helps us to capture gains at the top, and add more at the low, which is a time-proven stalwart in successful investing. Regular rebalancing is another important tool. We teach this strategy at our Financial Freedom Retreat. The Importance of Rebalancing If your cryptocurrency plan loses 76% and stays there for almost 2 years, it’s more than just emotional distress. Having your $1 million go down to just $240,000 can ruin our FICO score. It prevents us from purchasing other investments (such as AI), including maybe a home. If we have started a project, such as a home remodel, we might not have the funds to finish. All of this financial distress is hard on our family, and could be enough to plunge us into a depression or worse. Simply rebalancing and capturing gains at the high affords us the liquidity and emotional fortitude to purchase more when the price tanks. Rebalancing once, twice, or three times a year is an important discipline to keep our personal wealth plan properly diversified and growing. Bitcoin is up 4.5 times from its low in Nov. 2022, and gained 171% in 2023. Whenever we see this kind of shoot the moon performance, it’s a good idea to capture gains. In the pie chart system, when one slice becomes four, it’s time to sell high and trim it back, increasing our net worth, while ensuring we take the gains off paper (and the rollercoaster) and capture them. If we’re invested in crypto because we’re sick of banks, then we can consider turning our profits into an income-producing hard asset that we purchase for a good price. (This is another strategy we teach in our Financial Freedom Retreats.)  Bitcoin was the best performer in 2023, by far, with gains of 171%. source: Coinbase. Staking Staking can tie up our access to our coins. This makes it very difficult to protect our wealth from drops in value, or to capitalize on the wild and ferocious gains that can occur over a very short period of time in crypto. The Magnificent 7 We’ve all been hearing a lot about artificial intelligence and the Magnificent 7. As I mentioned in my blog on Jan. 2, 2024, without the spectacular gains of these seven stocks, with their average 105% rise, the S&P500 would have had 9.94% gains in 2023, rather than the 24.23% rise in value and 26.3% total return. A lot of conservative wealth plans don’t have any large growth or a hot slice of AI. If your performance last year was beneath the 24% gains in the S&P500, chances are these are areas to look at adding. If your plan lost money or performed in the low single digits, long-term bonds might be the problem. (I offer unbiased 2nd opinions. Email [email protected] for pricing and information.) Clean Energy Clean energy is another industry that has very wild swings in share price. Here again is where regular rebalancing can help us to stay on the right side of the trade. At the bottom of the pandemic, the iShares Clean Energy ETF: ICLN was trading at $8.70/share. By Jan. 8 2021, the price soared to $33/share, for 3.8 times gains. Today, the price is back down to $14/share. We miss out on a lot of gains, if we’re not doing our regular rebalancing. Which Coin is Right for You? How do you know which coin is right for you? All currency is based on trust – trust that the currency will hold its value, and that the institution underwriting our holding is honest and fiscally sound. There has been a great deal of coin scams, including very high profile ones that are marketed by popular celebrities. FTX comes to mind because you’d have to be living under a rock not to have heard about SBF and his 25-year prison term. Tom Brady, Gisele Bundchen, Stephen Curry and even Larry David were caught up promoting that ruse.  Kim Kardashian settled with the SEC for $1.2 million for promoting the EMAX coin – another pump and dump scheme. We also had a problem with 3 Arrows and Voyager Digital, a trading firm that claimed FIDC-insured coverage, which turned out to be false. (Click on the 6 Red Flags blog to learn more.) Other outright scams include the Trade Coin Club, which was a pyramid scheme posing as an MLM opportunity. If you’re sent an email or a social media post, that’s a red flag that it’s a marketing scheme. Is the opportunity being presented by someone under 40 with no experience in business? Should you really trust this stranger to protect your wealth? Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two most popular cryptocurrencies. iShares offers a Bitcoin ETF, and will soon begin trading an Ethereum ETF. If you purchase a fund, be sure that it is offered by a creditworthy fund company. If you purchase your coins directly, then be sure to buy them on a creditworthy and trustworthy platform. (Coinbase has averted a lot of trouble, whereas Binance's former CEO Changpeng Zhao will spend four months in prison, after pleading guilty to money laundering. Bottom Line If we’re interested in a hedge against a weakening dollar, or a safe haven against a slowing economy, cryptocurrency could be a good choice for a hot slice or two of our plan. It’s also important to rebalance regularly, so that we step off the price swing rollercoaster, and into our party suite of gains. What and where you purchase also matter. Join us at our Financial Freedom Retreats or get additional private coaching through my personal coaching practice. Email [email protected] for additional information. Join us at our June 8-10 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence), and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)  Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.  Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions!  Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Beyond Meat's Shares Surge. Quaker Oats' Pesticide Problem. Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
Beyond Meat’s Shares Surge. Quaker Oats’ Pesticide Problem. Beyond Meat’s shares jumped almost 40% after it announced earnings on February 27, 2024. Is this a renaissance of the brand? What about Quaker Oats’ pesticide problem? What’s interesting about Beyond Meat’s rally is that it didn’t happen because the company is selling more product. In fact, Beyond Meat is having to cut prices to compete with animal protein. Investors pushed the stock up on a promise from the CEO to stop losing money in 2024. Revenue actually dropped -8% year over year. Sales could sink another -24% in the first quarter of 2024. Quaker Oats has made headlines because a pesticide that is linked to infertility in animals has been found in 92% of samples of non-organic Quaker Oats and Cheerios and in the humans who eat them. This toxic pesticide requires very special handling by farmers. It is not legal for food use in the U.S. The loop-hole is that the fertilizer is approved for imported oats. Pepsico owns Quaker. How will this impact the parent company and the consumer staples industry? FYI: In a year where the S&P500 had 24.23% gains (26.3% total return in 2023), the consumer staples industry lost -2%.  Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Used with permission. Here are the Things We’ll Discuss in This Blog Beyond Meat Shares Surged 38.8% After Reporting Earnings on Tues. Feb. 27, 2024 Meat Price Wars (Tyson Foods Way Down, Too…) Historical Context Climate Considerations: Plant-Based Meat vs. Animal Protein Regenerative Agriculture vs. Pesticides and Inputs Cash Bleed vs. Cash (Tyson is Cash Negative, Too) Forward Outlook And here is more information on each point. Beyond Meat Shares Surged 38.8% After Reporting Earnings on Tues. Feb. 27, 2024 While Beyond Meat’s commitment to a pathway to profitability is important, the company has very tempered expectations for 2024 based on weak demand, inflation, the cost of borrowing and concerns about a slowing economy. Beyond Meat expects their gross margins to be in the mid to high teens range in 2024. With only $206 million in cash and cash equivalents, stopping the cash bleed is vital, especially since the price of animal protein has been below plant-based protein of late. Meat Price Wars (Tyson Foods Way Down, Too…) Net revenues were $73.7 million for Beyond Meat, down -7.8% year over here. According to the company’s 4Q 2023 earnings report, the decrease was largely due to a 14.6% drop-in net revenue per pound. Tyson Food’s net revenues were flat year over year. Tyson lost $648 million in fiscal year 2023. If you’d like a Protein Stock Report Card, email [email protected]. Historical Context During the pandemic, some meat factories had to be closed. People were hoarding everything. Oftentimes there just wasn’t any animal protein (or toilet paper) available at the store. Grocers began placing plant-based protein in their butcher counters. People started stocking their freezers with that, too. Beyond Meat’s all-time high of $240/share was in 2019. It was down to $158/share in January of 2021. Shares closed this week at $9.77/share. Once the butcher shop was full of animal protein again, at a price that was more affordable than plant-based protein, non-vegetarians went back to meat. Of course, there are plenty of vegans and vegetarians in the world, who are always going to be looking for plant-based options. However, during the pandemic, when plant-based protein was all that was available, meat-eaters were buying it, too. Climate Considerations: Plant-Based Meat vs. Animal Protein Industrialized cattle raising is very heavy on CO2. Rain forests are razed, emitting CO2, and also wiping out one of the most valuable ways to draw down CO2 – ancient trees. Additionally, the cattle are often fed grain instead of grazing on grasslands. The grain is trucked in from far away. Animals are often farmed in foreign countries, such as Brazil or India, and then flown, shipped and trucked to consumers around the world. When anyone says that cows emit more pollution than cars, the statement is inaccurate, as you can see quite clearly in the CO2 emissions chart below. However, the industrial farming model is very hard on the environment largely due to the transportation pollution and forest and soil depletion noted above.  Source: EPA.gov. 2021 CO2 emissions. It’s important to be aware of the fact that just 20 oil and gas companies (and the consumers who purchase their products) are responsible for over 1/3 of the CO2 in the atmosphere. That doesn’t give us a pass on eating a pound of flesh at every meal. The general consensus is that eating less meat protein is good for the planet, and a balanced diet that is rich in rainbow-colored produce is better for personal health. Additionally, it’s important to eat local and organic/regenerative meat and produce. Regenerative Agriculture vs. Pesticides and Inputs Quaker Oats made headlines this week because studies have found pesticides in Americans that are well above where they were just a few years ago. Food grown organically with regenerative agriculture practices does not rely upon pesticides, herbicides, or chemical fertilizers. So if you still want to eat oats, you might just consider an organic oat option. Quaker Oats is owned by Pepsico. The company accounts for about 4% of Pepsi’s revenue, so this is unlikely to be a brand killer. In fact, just a few days before the pesticide problem was reported by the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, Pepsico launched a new campaign in Canada and Latin America to promote Quaker Oats. Chlormequat is not approved for use on food in the U.S. However, the FDA does allow the importing of oats grown with chlormequat from other countries. According to an NIH white paper published in 2020, in addition to inhibiting reproduction, “Maternal exposure to chlormequat chloride during pregnancy disrupts the embryonic growth.” Despite these risks, the EPA is considering allowing farmers to use chlormequat to increase their crop yields. Eastman Chemical is a major manufacturer of chlormequat. Some important new documentaries are educating us on the importance of regenerative agriculture, and how this approach is healthier for the planet, people and the farmers. The Common Ground film is in select theaters now. You can also watch our Earth Gratitude interview with Farmer Gabe Brown and the co-directors of Common Ground at our Earth Gratitude YouTube channel. Also, check out the documentary Kiss The Ground, which is available to watch on Netflix. What scientists have discovered is that regenerative agriculture can draw down CO2 very effectively. Farmers can save hundreds of dollars per acre on input costs, while growing nutrient-dense, delicious food, and ensuring that their soil is healthy and doesn’t turn to dust. There are a lot of reasons for optimism and hope that are outlined in these documentaries, and I encourage everyone to watch them. It’s time to educate ourselves about the many benefits of regenerative agriculture, and how we can support regenerative farmers with our consumer choices, and also by writing to our congressmen to have regenerative agriculture supported in our Farm Bill. Again, shopping for organic/regenerative meat and produce at Farmers Markets and grocery stores goes a long way to reducing the amount of harmful toxins in our bodies. Cash Bleed vs. Cash (Tyson is Cash Negative, Too) A lot of food companies lost money last year. Tyson Foods lost -$648 million. Oatly lost -$393 million. Beyond Meat lost -$338 million. Hain Celestial lost -$117 million. The consumer staples industry itself was one of only a few industries to lose money on Wall Street last year, when the S&P500 had a total return of over 26%. Consumer staples were down -2.16%. Energy was down -4.8% and utilities were down -10.2%. Compare this to the cash-rich Magnificent 7 doubling their share price. Food companies typically have low profit margins. Inflation is hurting the industry, and competition makes it difficult to pass the costs along to the customer. Outlook Beyond Meat is expecting another drop in revenue in the first quarter of 2024, from $92.2 million in 2023 to $70-$75 million in 2024. That’s a drop of almost -25%. The 2nd half of 2024 might strengthen. The company expects $315 million to $345 million in annual revenue, which would be similar to 2023’s $343 million (at the top end of the range). Bottom Line Inflation is hitting all industries. Those industries like artificial intelligence and technology that are able to increase prices, have robust profit margins, a treasure trove of billions of dollars in cash, and very low debt are in a great position to continue operating without having to borrow money at today’s higher interest rates. However, many food companies have very low margins of profitability, which put a lot of them in the red last year. Be careful chasing gains on Beyond Meat just because you hear that the company’s share price jumped or their margins are expected to improve this year. One of the ways that we are, addressing the very elevated levels of debt in the United States, and the weakness in some value fund industries, such as consumer staples and banks, is to use value fund replacements. This is part of the curriculum offering in our Financial Freedom Retreat. Join us at our April 27-29, 2024 Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. Learn how to invest and grow your wealth, green your retirement plan, easy and efficacious nest egg strategies, how to get hot and diversified (including in artificial intelligence), and what's safe in a Debt World. You'll even discover how to save thousands annually with smarter big-ticket choices. Yes, it's a complete money makeover. Email [email protected] to register. Learn the 15+ things you'll master and read testimonials in the flyer on the home page at NataliePace.com. Register by Feb. 29, 2024 to receive the best price. "Ten minutes into the first day I was already much smarter about investing than I ever thought I would be in my life and I knew I was in exactly the right place at this retreat. I am amazed at how EASY and FUN it is to make my money work for me and those I love. I think this kind of information should be compulsory in schools. I wish I'd learned this sooner." CM If you’d like an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current wealth plan, email [email protected] for pricing and information.)  Join us for our Online Spring Financial Freedom Retreat. April 27-29, 2024. Email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397 to learn more. Register with friends and family to receive the best price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details.  Join us for our Restormel Royal Immersive Adventure Retreat. March 7-14, 2025. Email [email protected] to learn more. Register by April 30, 2024 to receive $200 off the regular price. Click for testimonials, pricing, hours & details. There is very limited availability, and you must register early to ensure that you get the exact room you want. This retreat includes an all-access pass to all of our online training for a full year for two and three 50-minute private, prosperity coaching sessions!  Natalie Pace learning about organic and regenerative farming from David Wilson, the former Home Farm manager of H.M. King Charles III. Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. Natalie is the bestselling author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us and is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). Her book The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is are the most recent releases of these books. Follow her on Instagram. Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. Check out Natalie Pace's Substack podcast on Apple and Spotify. Watch videoconferences and webinars on Youtube. Other Blogs of Interest Stocks are Flying High. Why Aren't Mine? Cut Your Tax Bill in Half. 9 Tips. Celebrity Jet CO2. Green Washing. The Facts. Some Solutions. Copper: Essential to the Clean Energy Transition. Uh. Oh. More Bank Trouble. Are Amazon, Square and Other Tech Companies Ripping Us Off? Housing. Unaffordable. What Works? Case studies and creative solutions. Don't Reach for Yield. Closed-End Funds. 2024 Investor IQ Test. Answers to the 2024 Investor IQ Test. Apple's Woes Drag Down the Dow. The Winners & Losers of 2023. Ozempic, Magnificent 7 & Beyond. 2024 Crystal Ball. The Underperforming DJIA, Full of Fossil Fuels and Forever Chemicals. A Spectacular Year for 3 of the Magnificent 7. The Best ROI* (Almost 40%!) & 7 Life Hacks That Save Thousands. Portugal Eliminates Tax Advantages for Ex-Pats. Holiday Gift Giving on any Budget. Including No Budget. Once in a Century Events are Happening Every Day. The Crypto Winter Enters Its 3rd Year. Earn $50,000 or More in Interest. Safely. Finally. Freebies and Deals for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Auto Strikes End. EV Price Wars Continue. WeWork's Bankruptcy. Half-Empty Office Buildings. Problems in our Personal Wealth Plan. Solutions for Unaffordable Housing. Cruise Ships Give Freebies to Investors. Should You Take the Bait? Should You Take a Cruise? Bonds. Banks. The Treacherous Landscape of Keeping Our Money Safe. 7 Rules of Investing Air B N Bust? Barbie. Oppenheimer. Strikes. Streaming Wars. Netflix. Monero: A Token of Trust? 13 Lifestyle Choices to Reduce Waste, Pollution & CO2 & Save a Boatload of Dough. China Bans Apple 11-Point Green Checklist for Schools. Artificial Intelligence and Nvidia's Blockbuster Earnings Report Biotech in a Post-Pandemic World 10 Wealth Secrets of Billionaires and Royals. What Happened to Cannabis? Bank of America has $100 Billion in Bond Losses (on Paper) Lithium. Essential to EV Life. I'm Just Not Good at Investing. Investors Ask Natalie. Should I Buy an S&P500 Index Fund? Investors Ask Natalie. Bonds Lost More than Stocks in 2022. Do Cybersecurity Risks Create Investor Opportunities? I Lost $100,000. Investors Ask Natalie. Artificial Intelligence Report. Micron Banned in China. Intel Slashes Dividend. Buffett Loses $23 Billion. Branson's Virgin Orbit Declares Bankruptcy. Insurance Company Risks. Schwab Loses $41 Billion in Cash Deposits. Fiat. Crypto. Gold. BRICS. Real Estate. Alternative Investments. BRICS Currency. Will the Dollar Become Extinct? The Online Global Earth Gratitude Celebration 7 Green Life Hacks Fossil Fuels Touch Every Part of Our Lives Are There Any Safe, Green Banks? 7 Ways to Stash Your Cash Now. Lessons from the Silicon Valley Bank Failure. Which Countries Offer the Highest Yield for the Lowest Risk? Why We Are Underweighting Banks and the Financial Industry. 2023 Bond Strategy Emotions are Not Your Friend in Investing Bonds Lost -26%, Silver Held Strong. Save Thousands Annually With Smarter Energy Choices Is Your FDIC-Insured Cash Really Safe? Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him? The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing. The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime. Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test. Important Disclaimers Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations. ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. |
AuthorNatalie Pace is the co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, The ABCs of Money, The ABCs of Money for College, The Gratitude Game and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. She is a repeat guest & speaker on national news shows and stages. She has been ranked the No. 1 stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency, and has been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999. Archives
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