Natalie Pace. bestselling author of The Gratitude Game, The ABCs of Money & Put Your Money Where Your Heart is. Co-creator of the Earth Gratitude Project.
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Ask Natalie: Trading is Tough These Days

5/6/2018

 
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Hi Natalie. Tough tape these days for trading. I am tired of seeing slow declines in many of my long-term positions! Do you think it best to capitulate and sell currently declining positions, which you believe have great growth potential going forward? Signed Impatient With Volatility
 
 
Dear Prudent Investor,
 
First of all, I’m going to assume that we’re talking about a small trading portfolio, not your retirement fund. The strategies for nest egg rebalancing are very different from the strategies used in your trading portfolio (where you take on higher risk for higher gain, with money you can afford to lose). If you are talking about your nest egg, then please let me know, and I’ll do another blog on nest eggs.
 
There was a saying on Wall Street in 1999 that a monkey could throw darts at a wall full of Dot Com stocks and make a killing. Of course, as Warren Buffett is fond of saying, when you get a recession, you see who has been swimming naked. These market aphorisms basically say that it’s easy to make money in bull markets, and you’re very likely to lose a lot of money in bear markets. I have to mention here that the last two recessions were more like depressions in losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dove 55% underwater in the Great Recession.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Performance Chart
October 2007 - April 2009

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Chart by Google Finance. (c) Google. Used with permission.
The NASDAQ composite index lost 78% Dot Com Recession, and took 15 years to crawl back to even. Stocks are trading near an all-time high, even with the recent pullback.

NASDAQ Composite Index Performance Chart
March of 2000 - October of 2002
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Chart by Google Finance. (c) Google. Used with permission.

The simplest answer to your question is that this is the 10th year of the current bull market. Statistically and historically, the data says we should be near the end. Even great stocks with huge potential can get drug down in a major correction. Even Apple, which had launched a game changing smart phone and was giving it away for free (courtesy of AT&T), lost 45% between the highs of October 2007 and the low of March 9, 2009.
 
Whenever you have an individual stock, there is always a series of questions you can ask that will help you to determine whether or not that stock is really a leader in a hot industry, and whether or not it has the potential to continue to increase in share price. The first thing you do is line up the competition, do a Stock Report Card ®, ask my Four Questions ®, and then apply the 3-Ingredient Recipe for Cooking up Profits ®. As you can see, the analysis of whether or not the company is a great leader in the sector is detailed and full of data. However assimilating all this data takes about 20 minutes, the same amount of time you might spend reading a bunch of articles and receiving a fraction of useable information.
 
After you determine that your company is indeed a leader (the 2nd ingredient in the recipe), then you need to look at the macro economics. What is the general market place going to do? In the 10th year of a bull market you can assume that we’re nearing the end – especially when every economic indicator that was present before the Great Recession is back with a vengeance, with even higher numbers. Real estate prices are higher. Public debt is an astronomical $21 trillion and counting. Consumer debt is an all time high of $13 trillion. College loan debt has gone through the roof to $1.4 trillion. Earlier this year, Alan Greenspan said that stocks and bonds are in a bubble. So it may be fair to assume that the macro environment is inflated and poised for a correction.
 
Before any correction there is usually an effervescence stage. We might still be in that. You just don’t know how long the effervescence lasts before the bubble pops.
 
If for some reason the company you are interested in is trading for a song, or is a game-changer, like the iPhone was, then you might have a window for profit-taking before the next downturn. The 2nd quarter GDP growth report is supposed to be strong, which could lift things at the end of July. However, there are other indicators that might take stocks in the opposite direction, like another increase of the Fed Fund interest rate, which could be as early as June 13th or August 1st.
 
As you can see, there’s a lot of work in trading individual stocks, which is why funds are a better idea for most folks in their retirement plans. If you aren’t sure that your nest egg is protected adequately from the next downturn, then be sure to reach out again. It’s never a matter of market timing, or jumping all in or all out. You want your retirement accounts to be “money while you sleep,” not money while you fret, babysit, worry, work work work. For additional information on my nest egg pie charts, you can read my three bestselling books or attend an upcoming Investor Educational Retreat. See the links below.
 
 
 

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GODONOU S. Donatien
19/6/2019 12:00:33 am

From: STE GLOBAL WORLD BUSINESS Sarl
C/248 Midombo
05 BP: 1838 Cotonou
Tel:+22997441592
Email:[email protected]/[email protected]/[email protected]
Skype:globalworldb
RCCM: RBP/NV02012-B-407
IFU: 3201200120818

Subject:Trade and partnership proposals

Dear Sir,

We would like to inform you that we are an import export company in
BENIN dealing in general merchandise and International trade since
1986 with full experience.

We are natif, legal and well know company, memeber of Benin Chamber of
Commerce and Industry
and we entertain local buyers network which make us powerfull on our market.

From commercial spring we come to know that you are one of the leading
suppliers exporters of some
products which are generally attractive on our market.

We are importer and buyer of these listed products:
"Rice,Frozen whole fish,Turkey meats and Ocean King Prawn,Halal whole
Chicken and parts,alchoolic and non alcholic beverage, beer,
canned fish,all rice varieties,vegetable oil, sugar, garments,fresh
apples fruits,used clothing,footwear,motorcycles and scooters, motorcycles and auto parts,electronical items and general
foodstuff"

In the same time we are exporter of palm oil,Pineaple,raw
cashwnuts,scraps metals, hms1&2,peanuts, and other

Then, we will be glad enough if you can let us have full details about
the products you are selling and also well selected list and offer CIF
Cotonou ports and your trade terms and conditions which can be
attactive for establish such cooperation and long time partnership.

Also, we are welcome business Angels and also all companies which are
interest to ties up with us or become our monther company or our
buying office legally under serious
contract for sourcing us all products of our interest on our market
for 50/50 share of the profits.

Prior to receive your urgent reply, we thanking you in advance and
awaiting for your urgent detail.

Best regards

Mr Donatien S. GODONOU
+22997441592

Thanks link
30/7/2019 11:11:57 am

I was very pleased to find this web-site. I wanted to thanks for your time for this wonderful read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you blog post.

Natalie Pace link
30/7/2019 12:53:52 pm

Thanks for your comment. Here are a few more recent blogs on trading. If you want to be sure to receive all of our alerts, teleconferences and blogs, email [email protected] or call 310-430-2397, and ask to be added to our mailing list.

https://www.nataliepace.com/blog/think-score-gains-not-stop-losses-by-natalie-pace

https://www.nataliepace.com/blog/whats-your-exit-strategy


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    Author

    Natalie Pace is the co-creator of the Earth  Gratitude Project and the author of The Power of 8 Billion: It's Up to Us, The ABCs of Money, The ABCs of Money for College, The Gratitude Game and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. She is a repeat guest & speaker on national news shows and stages. She has been ranked the No. 1 stock picker, above over 830 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency, and has been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999.

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  • Store
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  • About Natalie Pace
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  • Vision Mission Goals
  • Media Images
  • Natalie Pace Coaching Calendar
  • Calendar of Events
  • Restormel Retreat 2027
  • Wealth Secrets of the 1% Fireside Seminar
  • Stock Master Class 2025
  • Natalie Pace June 6-8, 2025 Financial Freedom Retreat. Online.
  • Real Estate Master Class
  • Rebalancing Master Class Jan. 18, 2025
  • Bond Master Class 2024
  • Options for Beginners Master Class
  • Sustainability Summit
  • Restormel Retreat 2025