The volatility that we’re experiencing on Wall Street recently is not just about the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Yes, that is of concern. However, it’s not the only spark that is causing the fiery swings. Here are a few of the other important considerations which you should be factoring into your nest egg.
 
The U.S. Markets are Overvalued
Congress Must Raise the Debt Ceiling Again Now
GDP was Revised Down Again to 5.0% (from 7.0% earlier this year)
Inflation Is Not as Transitory as the Feds Said
Over Half of the S&P500 is at or near Junk Status
Corporate Buybacks
 
And here is a little more information on each point.
 
The U.S. Markets are Overvalued
If you don’t understand price-earnings ratio, historic price-earnings ratio, and where we are in the cycle today, the chart below should give you the visual reflection alarms that you need. As you can see, the only time when stocks were more expensive was before the Dot Com Recession, when the NASDAQ Composite Index dropped by 78% (source: Shiller CAPE ratio). The Great Depression has now fallen to the 3rd most speculative time for stocks. You can also learn more by listening to my “Wall Street Secrets” and “What’s Safe in a Debt World” videoconferences. Click on the blue-highlighted links to access them. Subscribe at YouTube.com/NataliePace to be sure that you catch my videoconferences when they happen.

Congress has a habit of bickering and procrastinating until the last minute before raising the Debt Ceiling. Politicians know that a default in the U.S. could plunge the world into a recession and disrupt global financial functioning. So, while investors create volatility in the stock market to indicate their displeasure with the way that Congress is handling their business, in general everyone expects for the Debt Ceiling to be raised in time. That is why we are seeing selling activity one day, and buying activity the next. If investors really thought Congress wasn’t going to raise the Debt Ceiling, there would very likely be a swift race for the sidelines (a plunge in the stock market).
 
It's important to remember that Congress did indeed raise the Debt Ceiling in time to avoid a default, on August. 2, 2011. However, that wasn’t enough to save the U.S. AAA credit rating with S&P Global. Fitch Ratings currently has the U.S. AAA rating on a negative outlook. Moody’s indicated that a failure to raise the Debt Ceiling would be a global crisis.
 
The last time the U.S. credit was downgraded, on August 5 of 2011, gold and silver soared to all-time highs, and stocks fell. Stocks recovered pretty quickly, as investors clung to the Moody’s and Fitch Ratings AAA credit scores. During the next credit downgrade (in 2022?), the most popular cryptocurrencies could benefit, as crypto is the “new gold” for Millennials and Gen Z. The altcoins are a better bargain than Bitcoin and Ethereum.
 
GDP was Revised Down Again to 5.0% (from 7.0% earlier this year)
The 3Q 2021 GDP growth came in at 2.1%, after 6.7% and 6.3% in the 1st and 2nd quarters, respectively. Some economists, including the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPNOW, are predicting a great 4th quarter of GDP growth – above 8.0%. However, with the new 5.0% number being reported by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell (in his testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Nov. 30, 2021), it’s possible that 4Q 2021 GDP will come in under 5.%.
 
That’s still respectable, particularly given the pandemic, and one of the strongest annual GDP experienced by the U.S. in decades. However, it’s difficult to justify lofty price-earnings ratios when the GDP growth keeps getting revised down. This is why investors are so skittish and the swings are so dramatic.
 
2022 GDP growth is expected to come in at 3.8%, according to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the September 2021 Federal Reserve Board meeting. New economic projections will be released on Dec. 15, 2021, at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.

Inflation Is Not as Transitory as the Feds Said
The Federal Reserve Board has been stressing that 2021 inflation is temporary. It was their belief that they needed to let inflation run up a bit to pull persistently low inflation into their target range. In Powell’s testimony on Nov. 30, 2021, he indicated that inflation could remain elevated throughout much of 2022, though forecasters continue to believe that “inflation will move down significantly over the next year.”
 
What does that mean for investors? Interest rates are likely to tick up, at least twice, in 2022. By 2024, the Fed Fund rate is expected to have jumped from zero (where it is currently) to 1.8%. We’ll know how nervous the Feds are about inflation on Dec. 15, 2021, when the new SEP is released.
 
This is not favorable for existing bondholders, and will put pressure on some of the most highly-leveraged firms on Wall Street, particularly those that are suffering most from the pandemic, including commercial real estate, airlines, travel, hospitality, casinos, etc.
 
Over Half of the S&P500 as at or near Junk Status
That includes a lot of banks, financial services companies, insurance companies and essentially all of the institutions that hold our future in their hands. Now is the time to know what kind of safeguards are in place for your cash, annuities, bonds, munis, CDs, and other assets that you have been told are “safe.” There is an entire chapter on “What’s Safe in a Debt World” in the 5th edition of The ABCs of Money. (At under $8 for the ebook, this makes a great stocking stuffer.)
 
With U.S. equities overpriced and leverage quite high, value funds are not a value. Value funds are getting trounced by growth.
 

The Growth-Rich NASDAQ Composite Index Compared to the Debt-Laden Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 3 Years (Dec. 2019-Dec. 2021)

​Corporate Buybacks
The one bright spot for Wall Street is that corporate repurchases of their own company stock is on fire. According to Howard Silverblatt, the senior index analyst of the S&P500®  (and other S&P Dow Jones indices), the 3rd quarter of 2021 set a new record for corporate buybacks, at over $225 billion, and 2021 is expected to replace 2019 as the highest dollar amount of stocks repurchased within a year. Apple leads the charge with $85.5 billion worth of share repurchases in the first 3 quarters of 2021.

Corporate buybacks are the primary reason why the U.S. equity markets have typically recovered the day after a sell-off, and also why equities are so overvalued. As long as the debt ceiling is raised on time, this is expected to continue. However, if Congress gets too close to the X date of defaulting on our payments, and Fitch or Moody's responds with a downgrade, all bets on the buybacks are off. 
 
The next Federal Reserve Board meeting will be Dec. 14-15, 2021.
 
Bottom Line
The Omicron Variant is sparking volatility because of the leverage and overpricing that is happening in the U.S. markets. Other countries are not as overvalued, including many countries with GDP above that of the U.S. (This is something that I will cover in the Dec. 2021 free videoconference. Email info@NataliePace.com if you’d like to join us on Thursday, Dec. 16, 2021 at 5 pm PT. If you’re already on the list, you don’t need to email.)
 
What should you do to protect yourself from the pandemic and all of the other concerns listed above? Consider:
 

• Incorporating value replacements,
• Diversifying by country,
• Underweighting bonds,
• Overweighting a little safe,
• Knowing what you own and why,
• Understanding what is safe in a Debt World (rather than having blind faith in a broker-salesman),
• Getting an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current plan,
• Joining us for our Feb. 11-13, 2022 Online Financial Empowerment Retreat

 
Your best strategy is not trying to market time, or jumping out of the market and into something you think is a hot safe haven. Never invest on headlines or with your emotions. Proper diversification with regular rebalancing protects your wealth and keeps an appropriate amount at risk, so that you can participate in the gains of the stock market, which are an impressive 21.6% year-to-date, after an equally stellar 16.3% gains in 2020. Stocks are typically the best game in town. This system is also a Buy Low, Sell High plan on auto-pilot that takes the emotions out of the mix, if you do it properly.

If you’d like pricing and information on an unbiased second opinion, email info@NataliePace.com with Second Opinion in the subject line. You might also consider joining us for our Financial Empowerment Retreat February 9-11, 2022 online. Email info@NataliePace.com with Retreat in the subject line to learn more and to register now. Access additional information, including pricing, curriculum and testimonials, by clicking on the banner ad below. 
 

Other Blogs of Interest
From FAANNG to ZANA MAD MAAX
Ted Lasso vs. Squid Game. Who Will Win the Streaming Wars?
Starbucks. McDonald's. The Real Cost of Disposable Fast Food. 
​The Plant-Based Protein Fire-Sale
​What's Safe in a Debt World?
Inflation, Gasoline Prices & Recessions
Will There Be a Santa Rally?
The Dangerous Debt Ceiling Game
The Robinhood IPO.
Will the Crypto Crash Hit Tesla, Square & Coinbase?
China: GDP Soars. Share Prices Sink. 
The Competition Heats Up for Tesla & Nio. 
How Green in Your Love for the Planet?
S&P500 Hits a New High. GDP Should  be 7% in 2021!
2021 Financial Freedom Sweepstakes
Will Work-From-Home and EVs Destroy the Oil Industry?
Insurance and Hedge Funds are at Risk and Over-Leveraged.
Office Buildings are Still Ghost Towns.
Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? 
My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him?
Will Cannabis be Decriminalized This Summer?
The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing.
​Gardeners Creating Sanctuary & Solutions in Food Deserts.
2021 Company of the Year
​Almost 5 Million Americans are Behind on Rent & Mortgage. Real Estate Hits All-Time High.
​Beyond Meat, Oatly & The Very Good Food Co. 
Is Cryptocurrency the New Gold?
Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test.
Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test.
Tesla & Nio Will Report Spectacular Earnings.
The Coinbase IPO.
Restore Our Earth on April 22nd (and Every Earth Day).
Should You Sell in May and Go Away? 
Adding Shoot the Moon Performance to Your Nest Egg.
Videoconferencing in a Post-Pandemic World (featuring Zoom & Teladoc).
Sanctuary Sandwich Home. Multigenerational Housing. Interview with Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. 
10 Budget Leaks That Cost $10,000 or More Each Year.
The Stimulus Check. Party Like It's 1999. 
Kushner's Times Square Building Plunges 80% in Value.
Will There be a Spring Rally?
Cannabis and the Road to Decriminalization in the U.S.
Hot ETFs Return Up to 50% Since October. 
​Investor IQ Test 2021.
Investor IQ Test Answers
​Shoot the Moon Stock Picks
​2021 Crystal Ball.
Would You Pay $50 for a Cafe Latte? Is Your Tesla Stock Overpriced?
Can Medmen Avoid Bankruptcy?
​Bitcoin is Back, Baby!
Real Estate Prices are Going Up. And Down.
​Cannabis is Decriminalized. Stocks Triple.
Thanksgiving in a Pandemic. The Sustainability Silver Lining.
Money Stress Killed My Friend
Real Estate and Housing 2021. Challenges & Opportunities
​Real Estate in a Pandemic. Interview with Mike Fratantoni, the Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
​Bonds are Illiquid & Negative-Yielding.
Annual Rebalancing is a Buy Low, Sell High Plan on Auto-Pilot.
​Is Your Bank a Junk Bond
Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is.
Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist on What's Safe.
China's Tesla (Nio). 2Q Sales Soar.
Why Are You Still Renting? (Errr. There is More Than This to Consider!)
​Wealth Myths That Keep You Poor. Prosperity Truths That Make You Rich. 
Technology and Silver are Golden.
Real Estate: Feeling Equity Rich? Make Sure That Feeling Isn't Fleeting.
Airline Revenue Plunges 86%. 
10 Questions for College Success.
Is FDIC-Insured Cash at Risk of a Bank Bail-in Plan?
8 Money Myths, Money Pits, Scams and Conspiracy Theories.
Why Are My Bonds Losing Money?
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.

​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.
​

Zana Mad Maax
Zoom. Alphabet. Nvidia. Amazon. Meta. Alibaba. Daqo. Microsoft. Apple. Adobe. Xpeng.
 
FAANNG had to be trashed after two of the companies changed their names (Google to Alphabet and Facebook to Meta). The above acronym – Zana Mad Maax – is quite a mouthful. However, the companies are noteworthy, and certainly merit the effort it requires to remember their names.
 
There is one fly in the soup. Most of these companies are trading at all-time highs. So, a measured approach to getting invested is better than diving all in. On the other hand, there are a few superstars on the list that are still flying under the radar of investors and are trading at very low price-earnings ratios.
 
So, here’s a brief overview of each of the companies. More key data can be found in the Zana Mad Maax Stock Report Card. It’s too lengthy to attach here. If you’d like a copy, just email info@NataliePace.com with ZANA MAD MAAX in the subject line.
 
I’ll also be hosting a free videoconference on this topic soon. If you want to attend live, just send an email to info@NataliePace.com with VIDEOCON in the subject line. (If you’re already on the VIDEOCON list, you don’t need to send an email.)
 
​Zoom (symbol: ZM): We used to meet over coffee or at the water station. We now meet over Zoom. “Zoom me” has become a thing. When a noun becomes a verb, it’s ingrained in the culture. Enough said about how Zoom has become a part of our lives. If Work-From-Home continues, and surveys of Gen Z and Millennials indicate that it will, Zoom is here to stay. It’s understandable that the company’s revenue grew by 54% in the 2nd quarter and is projected to have 31% revenue growth in the coming quarter. Future growth may require an acquisition, and accelerated geographic and product expansion. Zoom’s P/E is very lofty at 81, with a forward P/E of 55. Ease into ownership.  
 

​Alphabet (symbol: GOOG) companies have made themselves the ABCs of our daily life. From Google maps, to Gmail, to search and even YouTube, chances are most of us are using quite a few of Alphabet services multiple times daily. Alphabet’s earnings growth and profit margins are quite impressive for a company valued at almost $2 trillion. The P/E is high at 28.
 
Nvidia (symbol: NVDA) is a very prolific artificial intelligence company, with AI products including self-driving, cryptocurrency, gaming, data centers and more. It was always included in my version of FAANNG. With 50% year-over-year revenue growth, it continues to be the Lord of the AI space. The company is projecting 48% annual revenue growth in the 4th quarter. Earnings should be announced at the end of February 2022. If you thought Zoom’s P/E was interstellar, Nvidia’s is 90, with a forward P/E of 70.
 
Amazon (symbol: AMZN) has become essential to what we eat, drink, wear and watch. This company has the slowest growth and profit margins, at 15% and 6% respectively, with a very elevated P/E of 69. If you already own it, then you might be looking to rebalance (i.e. capturing gains). If you don’t own the company yet, then develop a strategic plan and shopping list that allows you to buy in at a better price. (For example, Amazon’s price dropped to $1785 in March of 2020. Its current price is $3696.)
 
Meta Platforms Inc. (symbol: FB): You might be disgusted with Facebook, but chances are you’re using at least one of the other Meta businesses. If you have friends or family abroad, it’s difficult to live without WhatsApp. Instagram has become one of the most popular social media platforms. Gaming has always been part of the Metaverse, and the company is expanding into VR headsets with Project Cambria and Oculus. Meta has impressive growth and profit margins, at about 34%. The price-earnings ratio is not outlandish (though high) at 24. Be aware, however, that if you buy today, you’re purchasing close to an all-time high, in the hopes that the company’s share price goes higher. A strategic buy-in, or rebalancing if you’re already in, is a sound plan. The Facebook troubles are not over yet, and bad news can drag the share price of a good company down.
 
Alibaba (symbol: BABA) is the Amazon of China. People really can’t live without it there. It also has much higher revenue growth (34%), higher profit margins (19%) and a very low PE (19) when compared to Amazon. Alibaba, like most Chinese stocks, plunged when the prior White House Administration threatened to delist Chinese companies from American stock exchanges. That hasn’t happened. Many investors were chomping at the bit to buy Alibaba in January at  $319/share. Today’s price is just $144.
 
Daqo (symbol: DQ):is a leader in polysilicon and wafers, based out of China. Their solar products are needed in a world that is committing to renewable energy, which is why the company’s annual sales growth was 367% in the last quarter. This is another Chinese company that’s trading at a very low price-earnings ratio, at 11, with a forward P/E of just 6.
 
The polysilicon industry is seeing prices soar. Production remains strong, even though there are energy quotas in China. 4th quarter production might be slightly lower than the 3rd quarter, even though demand is high, while the company works through the red tape to expand their operations. However, if polysilicon and wafer prices and demand remain elevated, which they are expected to, then the revenue could come in close to 3Q revenue of $585.8 million, an increase of 136% over the 4th quarter 2020 revenue of $247.7 million.  
 
The 4th quarter results should be announced the 1st week of March 2022.

Microsoft (symbol: MSFT): I am using Word to write this blog. I frequently use Excel for accounting and data. Here again is a daily need. Microsoft is a business staple/technology company. The P/E is elevated at 38. The profit margins and growth remain impressive, particularly for a $2.6 trillion company, at 36% and 22%, respectively.
 
Apple (symbol: AAPL): Apple is another business staple/technology company that we can’t live without. Apple has a finger in music, streaming and AI, as well as connectivity. Apple’s revenue growth was 29% with 26% profit margins. Apple and Microsoft are the two most valuable companies in the world, at $2.6 trillion. However, Apple’s P/E is slightly more palatable, at 27.
 
Xpeng (symbol: XPEV): XPeng is taking on Tesla’s Model 3 in China. The XPeng P7 received the highest safety rating of all EVs scored in China (source: CleanTechnica.com). Xpeng’s revenue growth soared 537% in the 2nd quarter, and should be almost triple the revenue of 2020 in the 3rd quarter, as well. XPeng posted a net loss of $185 million in 2Q 2021 – normal for an early-stage, high-growth company. 3Q 2021 vehicle deliveries were up 48% sequentially and 199% year over year.
 
XPeng will report 3Q 2021 results on Tuesday, Nov. 23, 2021, before the market opens.
 
Bottom Line: All of these ZANA MAD MAAX companies should continue to dominate in 2022. You’ll want to develop a plan to own them. Many of the Chinese stocks are trading at half the prices they were trading at in January of this year. U.S. stocks are, generally, trading near all-time highs, with elevated price-earnings ratios.


Full Disclosure: I own many of the stocks featured in this blog. 

If you'd like to learn how to pick stocks, how to properly set up your retirement plan and how to protect your wealth, join us for our Feb. 11-13, 2022 online Financial Empowerment Retreat. Email info@NataliePace.com to learn more. 

About Natalie Pace
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money was released on September 17, 2021. 

Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. ​

​Pop Culture
Squid Game is Netflix’s most popular TV show ever with a “mind-boggling 142 million member households globally” watching in the first four weeks of its run, according to Netflix’s 3rd quarter earnings release of October 19, 2021. Ted Lasso just swept the Emmys. While you may think of this as Apple TV versus Netflix, Warner Brothers is the creator of Ted Lasso. We know the top hits of Netflix. Disney has been a beloved brand for a century. However, are you aware that the combined merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery includes the Ted Lasso, Dune, Harry Potter and HBO franchises?
 
Streaming Wars
Netflix and Disney are currently one and two in the streaming wars. However, S&P Global is projecting that the combined merger of Warner Brothers and Discovery into Warner Bros. Discovery, with a stock symbol of WBD, is going to put the newly combined company into the number two spot at some point (unspecified), behind Disney. This puts pressure on Netflix, and even more heat on traditional TV brands like NBC (owned by Comcast). With a price-earnings ratio of 64, investors might not be pricing in the competition that Netflix faces going forward – yet.

Revenue Growth
If you look at the revenue growth in the above Stock Report Card, AMC Theaters looks outstanding. However, that’s because last year was terrible. AMC’s revenue dropped from $5.5 billion in 2019 to $1.2 billion in 2020. It’s looking like 2021 will bring in revenue over $2 billion. However, that is still much lower than it was before the pandemic. AMC was struggling with cash burn even when it brought in $5.5 billion in revenue. Today, the company still faces deferred lease expenses of at least half a billion. This, combined with high-interest rate debt has plunged AMC’s credit rating to CCC plus.
 
The rally on Reddit to save AMC has allowed the company to keep from sliding into bankruptcy in the near term. However, even with people returning to theaters, there is a very real possibility that AMC will continue to burn through cash until at least 2023. A return to profitability will require structural changes (and likely less staff and far more automation).
 
In terms of revenue growth, the story that looks the most compelling is the merger of Warner Brothers with Discovery. This was done (at least partly) because AT&T (the parent company of Warner Bros.) needed the cash ($43 billion) and to offload some debt ($1.5 billion as of March 31, 2021). The combined company could be worth $130 billion, according to Bloomberg. Discovery shareholders will be awarded 29% of the company, while AT&T shareholders will receive 71% of the new company.  
 
Debt
The top three streaming networks, Netflix, Disney, and Warner Brothers Discovery, are all rated at the lowest rung of investment grade (BBB). The popularity of online entertainment engagement and subscription revenue has these companies with a stable outlook. However, as interest rates rise, the debt load will drag on profit margins. There’s not a great deal of room for added expenses. Disney still has room to improve its cash flow as more theme parks return to full capacity. Currently, however, Disney is only pocketing 3.8% of its revenue, as of the 3rd quarter of 2021. Of course, this is better than last year’s losses of -$2.864 billion.
 
Price
Most stocks in the streaming services are very expensive. However, the Warner Bros. Discovery deal could reward Discovery shareholders. If the combined value hits $130 billion. Discovery‘s share of that would be $37.7 billion. That is 2.7 times higher than Discovery’s market value of $13.93 billion today. Analysts peg the value with a forward PE of only 10. By comparison, Netflix and Disney both have very elevated forward PEs, at 63.60 and 36 (like purchasing avocados for $20 and $10 each, respectively). The average price earnings ratio is about 17.
 
Bottom Line
We’re all aware of the cost of our streaming services. We might even jump around, subscribing to Netflix when our favorite series drops, and then switching over to Apple TV when the preferred pastime launches there. However, it’s time to start understanding the price of ownership. Netflix and Disney could have bright futures. But if the price is too high, even the smallest miss in expectations could cause share price losses. On the other hand, it’s possible that investors haven’t done the math to discover just what a deal the Warner Bros. Discovery merger offers investors.
 
 
Full Disclosure: I own shares of Discovery, in anticipation of the finalization of the merger between Warner Bros. and Discovery in the first half of 2022.

​

​Other Blogs of Interest
Starbucks. McDonald's. The Real Cost of Disposable Fast Food. 
​The Plant-Based Protein Fire-Sale
​What's Safe in a Debt World?
Inflation, Gasoline Prices & Recessions
Will There Be a Santa Rally?
The Dangerous Debt Ceiling Game
The Robinhood IPO.
Will the Crypto Crash Hit Tesla, Square & Coinbase?
China: GDP Soars. Share Prices Sink. 
The Competition Heats Up for Tesla & Nio. 
How Green in Your Love for the Planet?
S&P500 Hits a New High. GDP Should  be 7% in 2021!
2021 Financial Freedom Sweepstakes
Will Work-From-Home and EVs Destroy the Oil Industry?
Insurance and Hedge Funds are at Risk and Over-Leveraged.
Office Buildings are Still Ghost Towns.
Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? 
My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him?
Will Cannabis be Decriminalized This Summer?
The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing.
​Gardeners Creating Sanctuary & Solutions in Food Deserts.
2021 Company of the Year
​Almost 5 Million Americans are Behind on Rent & Mortgage. Real Estate Hits All-Time High.
​Beyond Meat, Oatly & The Very Good Food Co. 
Is Cryptocurrency the New Gold?
Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test.
Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test.
Tesla & Nio Will Report Spectacular Earnings.
The Coinbase IPO.
Restore Our Earth on April 22nd (and Every Earth Day).
Should You Sell in May and Go Away? 
Adding Shoot the Moon Performance to Your Nest Egg.
Videoconferencing in a Post-Pandemic World (featuring Zoom & Teladoc).
Sanctuary Sandwich Home. Multigenerational Housing. Interview with Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. 
10 Budget Leaks That Cost $10,000 or More Each Year.
The Stimulus Check. Party Like It's 1999. 
Kushner's Times Square Building Plunges 80% in Value.
Will There be a Spring Rally?
Cannabis and the Road to Decriminalization in the U.S.
Hot ETFs Return Up to 50% Since October. 
​Investor IQ Test 2021.
Investor IQ Test Answers
​Shoot the Moon Stock Picks
​2021 Crystal Ball.
Would You Pay $50 for a Cafe Latte? Is Your Tesla Stock Overpriced?
Can Medmen Avoid Bankruptcy?
​Bitcoin is Back, Baby!
Real Estate Prices are Going Up. And Down.
​Cannabis is Decriminalized. Stocks Triple.
Thanksgiving in a Pandemic. The Sustainability Silver Lining.
Money Stress Killed My Friend
Real Estate and Housing 2021. Challenges & Opportunities
​Real Estate in a Pandemic. Interview with Mike Fratantoni, the Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
​Bonds are Illiquid & Negative-Yielding.
Annual Rebalancing is a Buy Low, Sell High Plan on Auto-Pilot.
​Is Your Bank a Junk Bond
Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is.
Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist on What's Safe.
China's Tesla (Nio). 2Q Sales Soar.
Why Are You Still Renting? (Errr. There is More Than This to Consider!)
​Wealth Myths That Keep You Poor. Prosperity Truths That Make You Rich. 
Technology and Silver are Golden.
Real Estate: Feeling Equity Rich? Make Sure That Feeling Isn't Fleeting.
Airline Revenue Plunges 86%. 
10 Questions for College Success.
Is FDIC-Insured Cash at Risk of a Bank Bail-in Plan?
8 Money Myths, Money Pits, Scams and Conspiracy Theories.
Why Are My Bonds Losing Money?
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.

​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

About Natalie Pace
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money was released on September 17, 2021. 

Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. ​

 
The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting Nov. 2-3, 2021. Everyone’s eyes and ears will be on whether the Feds will begin tapering their QE bond purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. It is expected that tapering of $15 billion/month will be announced. The hope is that since this is already expected, there will be no Taper Tantrum, and that the Santa Rally will continue to offer gifts, such as the 6.9% S&P500 gain in October of this year (after September’s 4.76% decline).  
 
 
COP26, the U.N.’s  Climate Change conference began on Halloween in Glasgow, Scotland, and ends on Nov. 12, 2021. The intention of the conference is to unite the world and to accelerate climate action. You can follow the speeches and meetings at the link below.
 
https://ukcop26.org/
 
The Power of 8 Billion Green Lives
Natalie Pace will be having a conversation with Felicia Tomasko, a leader of the LA Yoga community, tomorrow, Nov. 2, 2021, at 2 pm PT about the power of almost 8 billion individuals joined together to restore our planet. Visit LA Yoga’s social media page to join us LIVE.
 
 
Seasonal Trends and Wall Street Secrets at The Money Show. Natalie Pace will be revealing many Wall Street Secrets in her Nov. 3, 2021 webinar, offered by The Money Show. These tips are essential to thriving on the 21st Century’s wild Wall Street rollercoaster. Join us a 4 PM PT (1 PM PT). Click on Money Show for registration details.

​Free Coaching. Register for the Feb. 11-13, 2022 Financial Empowerment Retreat today, Nov. 1, 2021, to receive the lowest price and a complimentary, private prosperity coaching session (value $300). Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more and register now. Click on Retreat to access a flyer with additional information and testimonials.
 

Free Books. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money and the 2nd edition of Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is ebooks are free now through Nov. 4, 2021. Both of these books were just updated in August with essential information that you’ll want to read, even if you’ve perused these books previously.
 
At NO COST, they also make great resources for students and teachers. Teens love learning how to pick stocks using the strategies that Natalie Pace developed, which earned her a ranking of No. 1 stock picker. Those systems are featured in Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. In addition to calling Google at the IPO, the book featured a Tesla Roadster when it was first released (back in 2008). Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is is an original ESG Investing book that is a must-have resource for anyone who cares about climate action.
  
The ABCs of Money offers essential strategies and resources for debt reduction, budgeting, investing and reducing your carbon footprint with smarter energy choices. Getting budgeting, investing and energy smart can add up to keeping thousands of dollars annually that would be spent making the landlord, the debt collector, the insurance salesman, the gasoline station, the utility company, the medical profession and others rich at your own expense. Natalie Pace's time-proven 21st Century investing strategies earned gains in recessions and outperformed the bull markets in between. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 for testimonials from VIPs of Wall Street and Main Street.
  
Starbucks, MacDonald’s and Other Fast-Food Restaurant Chains. Learn what climate action, saving the Rain Forest, the labor shortage and affordable housing have to do with America’s obsession with fast, convenient food on the go.

 
Inflation is affecting everything these days. Whether it’s buying gas or food, chances are you’re spending more at the pump and register. Labor shortages are forcing companies to raise their minimum wage in order to attract team talent. Housing is astronomical and unaffordable in half of the U.S., according to Attomdata.

​There’s one very expensive thing going on, however, that a lot of people are not factoring in. That is the cost of trees. How many trees do you drink and toss, or flush down the toilet, every year? What happens if we keep razing our rain forests for convenient coffee on the go? Are we factoring in the very real costs of calamities that are associated with climate change, increasingly intense weather events, desertification, oceanic acidification and global warming into our inflation assumptions and how we live our lives?
 
Inflation
We are keenly aware of how inflation is hitting gas and oil prices. Since coffee only goes up a few cents here and there, we might not be as aware of escalation. Housing is widely acknowledged as a crisis. But, how many of us are putting two and two together and acknowledging the drain that unaffordable housing has on the labor shortage? If we’re making $17 an hour, which equates to about $2946 a month before taxes, how can we afford to live in most cities in the U.S.?
 
Renting and buying are completely out of reach for the lowest-paid workers in the U.S. This explains why we have more intergenerational homes today than in the Great Depression. It also prompts labor-strapped companies to replace workers with automation (self-ordering has become hugely popular) and to reduce hours of operation. Take a look at the unemployment rate for people without a high school education. It’s quadruple that of those with a Ph.D.

Labor Shortages
Businesses, particularly hospitality and entertainment that rely upon lower income staff, have been forced to streamline, automate, reduce operating hours and rely upon self-service. Chipotle has Chipotlane where you can pick up an order that you complete on an app rather than through a human-staffed order window. You can do the same thing at many Starbucks and Macdonald’s these days. In the MacDonald’s 3Q 2021 earning call, CEO Chris Kempczinski said the company is leaning into the three D’s for sustained growth and profitability: digital, delivery and drive-thru. The company wants to create “contactless channels” and “digital experiences that are seamless personalized and easy to use.”
 
Supply Chain Bottlenecks
Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson assured analysts on the company’s 3Q 2021 earnings call that he has enough coffee to last for a few months, and prices locked in for more than a year. That ensures for a pretty risk-free holiday season. However, labor shortages are affecting factories and deliveries, while commodity prices are escalating. That is leading companies to raise prices incrementally.
 
McDonald’s raised prices about 6%. Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson believes there is still room to raise prices (again) if the company needs to. He told analysts that Starbucks has a “world-class pricing team backed up by world-class analytics and insight.”
 
One of the commodities both companies are keeping their eyes on is the cost of paper, since fast food restaurants are still largely steeped in the convenience of single-use, disposable packaging, despite any claims to be socially-conscious and concerned about ESG (environmental, social & governance).
 
Trees and Paper Goods
Millennials and Gen Z are target markets of all casual dining and fast-food chains. These population cohorts place a strong emphasis on climate responsibility and sustainability. Somehow, they’ve missed the memo on how disposable paper goods are responsible for approximately 16 billion cups being trashed and 6.5 million trees being razed every year.

Trees are the lungs of our planet and have a strategic capability of reducing carbon in the atmosphere and sequestering it in the soil. As Kathleen Rogers, the president of EARTHDAY.ORG told me in our interview for Earth Day, “Vegetation gives us the oxygen we breathe. We cannot solve climate change by planting trees, but we can push it way off down the field, if we do.” (Click to access the full interview.)

​What happens when consumers understand that the cup in their hand was sourced from an old-growth rainforest? Starbucks will put your personalized macchiato into your own reusable mug, as long as local mandates allow it (given the pandemic). I rarely see anyone (other than me) with a reusable mug at Starbucks. I’ve never seen anyone with a reusable container at MacDonald’s. This isn’t a contactless experience. It requires manual labor to take your cup and pour a drink into it, which spins us back into unaffordable housing and the labor crunch. It is also not as fast and convenient as coffee junkies would like.
 
Will preserving our carbon-sequestration forests become more important than the current method of drinking our Morning Joe? One thing we’ve seen in 2021 with meme stocks and Reddit is that sentiment and campaigns can burgeon out of nowhere to become the norm.
 
Expensive Stock Prices
Another area of elevated prices are stock prices. The price-earnings ratios of the most popular casual dining and fast-food brands are astronomical. In general, U.S. companies are trading at speculative valuations not seen since The Dot Com Recession, and much higher than the Great Depression in 1929.

​Take a look below at the price-earnings ratios of five different brands. The historical average PE is about 17.5.

Should a company like Chipotle that had under $400 million in net income last year be worth over $50 billion? Should MacDonald’s and Starbucks be worth $183 billion and $125 billion, respectively, when their net income is under $5 billion?
 
Debt and Leverage
Most of the companies listed above have a credit rating of the lowest rung of investment grade (BBB or higher) or are at speculative (junk) status (BB or lower). Debt and leverage in the U.S. today have become astronomical. We hear about the $29 trillion public debt frequently. Few of us are aware that the total U.S. debt and loans is above $85 trillion – a number never seen in our history.
 
Economists have pointed out that the 21st-century has been characterized with wealth flowing to the investor class at the expense of workers. This is what happens when interest rates remain low for an extended period. Low interest rates create asset bubbles. Companies are willing to borrow money, letting their own credit rating fall to the lowest rung of investment grade, because they can do so and still borrow at under 5% in a low interest-rate world. They then use that borrowed money to buy back their own stock, rewarding investors with higher share prices and lower price-earnings ratios. Money flows to the top of the income ladder, rather than through to the team members or invested in R&D.
 
Chipotle, Starbucks and MacDonald’s have each announced that they will repurchase their company shares. Yes, these companies are all increasing their minimum wage a little. At the same time, they are also automating more and reducing store hours, which results in a smaller workforce that is needed.
 
Investors remain invested for the small amount of “income” they are making. Most are not aware that they are one credit downgrade from losing a chunk of their principal. When companies get cut to junk status from investment grade, their stock sinks.
 
Bottom Line
If you care about sustainability and ESG investing, it’s important to reduce the amount that you’re eating from these drink and toss dining options. With elevated price-earnings ratios, which is similar to paying $15 or more for an avocado, there is also the looming possibility that prices will decline rapidly and suddenly without notice, and before you can protect your wealth. According to the most recent Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report, “Should risk appetite decline from elevated levels, a broad range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large and sudden declines, which can lead to broader stress to the financial system.” 
 
For this reason, and others that are outlined in my What’s Safe in a Debt World blog and videoconference, we are using value replacements in our nest egg pie chart strategy. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more now.

I​f you'd like to learn how to learn how to invest in ESG companies including our 2021 Company of the Year (which tripled in share price), how to protect your wealth and how to manage volatile industries, like gold, cannabis and crypto, then join me for our 3-day Investor Educational Retreat. We've had many Shoot the Moon stock picks in 2020 and 2021. You will also learn how to earn money while you sleep with a time-proven, 21st Century plan. Wisdom is the cure. It's time to become the boss of your money. Call 310-430-2397 or email info@NataliePace.com to learn more now.
 
 

About Natalie Pace
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money was released on September 17, 2021. 

Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. ​

Beyond Meat Trades at a Pandemic Low
Beyond Meat dropped to a 52-week low yesterday after announcing that the company had underestimated the effect the Delta Variant would have on restaurants (like McDonald’s) using their product. Other calamities included severe weather on the East Coast, which led to water damage in the inventory, and loss of potable water for two weeks in one of their factories.
 
Beyond Meat’s revenue growth is still predicted to be about 12.3% higher than the third quarter of 2020. However, it will also be almost 30% lower sequentially. Investors responded by selling. The share price plunged by 13% at the market close yesterday, and is trading at prices we haven’t seen since the pandemic plunge in Spring of 2020.
 
The Very Good Food Company’s Share Price Sinks
The Very Good Food Company, a popular plant-based protein company out of Vancouver, has seen its share price implode by 77% off of the 52-week high. In December of 2020, the company was selling for $7.15 a share. Today you can buy it for $1.71. Oatly is near a 52-week low as well, trading at half of the $29 price investors were willing to pay in June of this year.
 
Meanwhile, The Very Good Food Company’s year-over-year revenue growth is 156%, while Oatly’s annual sales gains are a respectable 53%.
 
So why are plant-based protein companies experiencing a fire sale in their share prices? Are they experiencing supply chain bottlenecks? Has demand gone down?
 
The Plant-Based Meat Market
 
According to ResearchandMarkets.com, the plant-based meat market is projected to reach $35 billion by 2027, after hitting $13.6 billion in 2020. Having hot products in a game-changing space easily explains why The Very Good Food Company experienced 156% year-over-year revenue growth in the most recent quarter, compared to last year. 2021 will be the first year that The Very Good Food Company enjoys over $10 million in sales. The company recently expanded out of Canada and into California, and purchased The Cultured Nut in order to begin offering plant-based cheese. So, impressive growth at $VGFC (the NASDAQ ticker symbol) is built-in through M&A, as well as increased consumer interest in plant-based proteins and dairy.

​

​Beyond Meat sold $407 million of its product in 2020. They are building factories in China and the Netherlands. They are expanding globally.
 
Both of the above-mentioned plant-based companies have competition from Impossible Foods (privately held), as well as the traditional meat companies that are expanding into this space. Legacy brands such as Tyson foods, Kellogg and ConAgra all have plant-based protein products.
 
Plant-Based Dairy
 
The Food Institute is projecting that the dairy alternative market will hit about $45 billion by 2027. Plant-based cheese sold about $1.01 billion in 2019, but is gaining traction. Plant-based milk, ice cream and yogurt are starting to hit the retail shelves. You can get Oatly‘s milk and yogurt at Starbucks. The Very Good Food Company advises that its cheese products will be available in retail stores by the fourth quarter of this year.

Oatly hit the big boards with a bang on May 20, 2021, but has since seen its share price weaken. Shares are trading at half of where they were in June. The company has been one of the worst performers this year, at a time when the S&P500 keeps setting new all-time highs.
 
Any fast-growing industry is bound to have challenges and setbacks as it invests in factories and expands. The pandemic and severe weather events exacerbate and complicate the plans of many businesses, particularly in consumer goods. However, there is no denying the explosive demand in the plant-based protein and dairy markets.
 
Young Mavericks, like those mentioned above, can have wild fluctuations in the share price, as investor sentiment seesaws between undervalued and Shoot the Moon status. When I reported on this industry back in May, I was concerned about the valuations of these companies, particularly the share price of The Very Good Food Company. Today all of these companies are on a fire sale.
 
While the old school food companies, such as Conagra, are less volatile, they are also slower growth and more heavily indebted. Their share prices don’t move as much in either direction, up or down. The companies rarely innovate themselves. Rather they tend to target the upstarts as acquisition candidates. That can be a good thing if you’ve invested in the most-beloved brand at a great price, before the suitors come calling.
 
While the pandemic continues to pose challenges for all consumer goods, the plant-based protein and dairy market could be a bright spot on the horizon for investors. These companies make tasty food. Meatless Mondays are a treat many families look forward to. You don’t have to compromise flavor or culinary creativity. The Very Good Food Company has excellent recipe ideas all over Instagram, and even a barbecue rib product made out of jackfruit. Oatly and almond milk have become staples in the side door of many refrigerators. Once folks head back to restaurants, they can opt for a Beyond Meat McPlant Burger at McDonalds (in select locations). 
 
Beyond Meat reports 3rd quarter earnings on Wednesday, Nov. 10, 2021, after the markets close. The sell-off happened when the company revised their 3Q 2021 earnings expectations down (on Oct. 22, 2021). Investors will now be keen on the 4Q 2021 forward outlook when earnings are announced. Oatly will report on Nov. 15, 2021 before the U.S. markets open (at 9:30 am ET). The Very Good Food Company’s results should come around Nov. 19, 2021.
 
Bottom Line
I have been a fan of plant-based protein products for years. As someone who believes in putting your money where your heart is, the only thing that held me back from investing in the past was the price of the stocks. With the plant-based protein companies experiencing a fire sale, I’m in!
 
 
Full disclosure: Really. I’m in. I own Beyond Meat and The Very Good Food Company.



I​f you'd like to learn how to learn how to invest in great companies, like The Very Good Food Company and our 2021 Company of the Year (which tripled in share price), how to protect your wealth and how to manage volatile industries, like gold, cannabis and crypto, then join me for our 3-day Investor Educational Retreat. We've had many Shoot the Moon stock picks in 2020 and 2021. You will also learn how to earn money while you sleep with a time-proven, 21st Century plan. Wisdom is the cure. It's time to become the boss of your money. Call 310-430-2397 or email info@NataliePace.com to learn more now.
​

About Natalie Pace
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money was released on September 17, 2021. 

Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. ​

​What’s Safe in a Debt World?
Includes 11 Essential Tips
 
How many times have you seen or heard recently that Bitcoin or gold/silver will be the only thing worth anything when the dollar becomes worthless and the Federal Reserve Board is abolished? It’s easy to understand how alluring this sentiment is, or why Squid Game is the top show on Netflix. (Saturday Night Live’s skit on October 15, 2021, did a good job of synopsizing the show.) We live in a Debt World. For reference, check out the chart below, which shows a laundry list of economic indicators, including debt, from today and before the pandemic, the Great Recession and the Dot Com Recession.

​Below is another chart that should have you concerned. While debt levels are unprecedented and eyepopping, so are asset prices in stocks and real estate. In fact, the only time that stock prices have been higher was before the Dot Com Recession (when the NASDAQ Composite Index sank 78% between March 2000 and October of 2002). The Great Depression (yes, 1929) is now the 3rd most leveraged time for stocks in recorded U.S. history.
 

Take a Historical Perspective
What was safe during the Great Depression (or even the Great Recession)? Real estate? Owning a business? Owning stocks? Owning bonds? Would Bitcoin have saved the day at either time? Is a better currency the answer, or do the solutions lie elsewhere? According to the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Stability Report from May of 2021, “Should risk appetite decline from elevated levels, a broad range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large and sudden declines, which can lead to broader stress to the financial system.” In plain English, now is the time to make sure that you are protected from the financial storms that could appear anytime on the horizon. (If you wait for them to arrive, it’s too late to prepare.)
 
11 Tips on Getting Safe in  a Debt World
 
1. Bonds are a Big Part of the Problem
2. Market Timing Doesn’t Work
3. Don’t Fight the Fed
4. Proper Diversification
5. What’s Hot
6. Diversifying by Country
7. Liquidity Affords Us the Opportunity to Buy Low
8. Value is Getting Trounced by Growth
9. Dividends Don’t Pay When Your Principal Plunges
10. Safe, Income-Producing Hard Assets that You Purchase for a Good Price
11. Think Bigger and Get Creative
 
1. Bonds are a Big Part of the Problem
Bonds are illiquid and negative-yielding. Those conditions become heightened when interest rates rise, whether it is due to interest rate risk or credit risk. Both scenarios are troublesome today. The Fed Fund rate is targeted to begin its ascent in 2022 and rise to 1.8% (from zero today) by 2024. Meanwhile, over half of the S&P500 companies are at or near junk bond status. Never reach for yield. Know what you own. Heed the advice of Roy Rogers, who once said, “I’m more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.” Don’t rely on an asset that is losing money to protect your wealth.
 
2. Market Timing Doesn’t Work
The worst economic crisis of our lives became the shortest recession in history. The world’s economists have learned many lessons from the Great Depression, which they applied during the pandemic. Their theories were aided by a debt suspension, which meant they had a blank check on available funds. That’s one of the underreported points of contention in Congress. The Democrats want a suspension of the Debt Ceiling (as has been the case for decades). The Republicans want the Democrats to take ownership of an actual number (in the trillions) that they are willing to add to the public debt.
 
Editor’s Note: Public debt increased $7.8 trillion under the Trump Administration. Before the pandemic, the public debt under the 45th President was increasing at a faster rate than it did in the Obama Administration. In 2009, the U.S. was using Keynesian economic tools to ameliorate a banking and insurance crisis that had brought many of the developed world’s economies and businesses to the brink of financial destruction. By 2016, the increased debt was due to tax cuts that were not paid for by economic growth.

Trying to outthink the policymakers is hazardous to our fiscal health. A better plan is to be properly diversified and to rebalance regularly. A simple, time-proven, 21st Century, easy-as-a-pie-chart strategy is outlined in my book, The ABCs of Money (5th edition).
 

​3. Don’t Fight the Fed
In the Pandemic Recession, we learned a few things. If you wait for the headlines, you’re too late. The informed money had already sold off about 38% by March 23, 2021, which turned out to be the market bottom. That was the time that Main Street was ready to plunge into the Wall Street exodus that had been led for a month by the whales. When the Feds bought up distressed bonds and ETFs, the Treasury gave money to anything that moved and many Americans no longer had to pay rent or keep up with their student loan debt, all of the sudden buying stocks and homes became the life hack du jour.
 
4. Proper Diversification
Being properly diversified, underweighting areas of distress, regular rebalancing and understanding what’s safe in a debt world position us best in today’s overleveraged existence. So, what is proper diversification?
 

• Always keep a percent equal to your age safe
• Diversify into 10 different funds, separated by size, style, and hot industries or countries
• Overweight safe if you think that things are too expensive or over-leveraged
• Underweight value if there’s nothing on sale and the only thing in your value funds are companies that are underperforming the market with slow growth and massive debt

5. What’s Hot? The pandemic taught us that we can’t live without technology, communications, bleach and toilet paper. Biotechnology does quite well in a global pandemic. Copper prices are at an all-time high, which has pushed 2021 GDP growth expectations to 10 and 11 for Peru and Chile, respectively. Cannabis decriminalization bills are on tap in the House and Senate, and could take centerstage after the Budget and Debt Ceiling are resolved. (Perhaps this will be a Christmas present?)
 
6. Diversifying by Country
One of the ways that you can get diversified in value is to look at foreign countries. For example, some of the countries that have the strongest growth in the world have a much more attractive price point today than U.S. equities, which are very expensive (like buying avocados for three or four times the normal price). I make my  case for country diversification in the updated fifth edition of The ABCs of Money. Some of the highest growth countries in the world today include Chile, Peru, China and Colombia. Chinese equities were trading near their 52-week low in mid-October. The iShares ETFs for the other countries mentioned are trading near their 15-year lows.
 
7. Liquidity Affords Us the Opportunity to Buy Low
The reason that most people don’t buy low is because they can’t buy low. When we lose more than half of our wealth, we are in a position to have to recover losses during the bull market. Preserving our capital means that we can shop when things go on sale. So, what is safe and liquid today? FDIC-insured cash. If you’re going to own bonds or Treasuries, keep the terms short and the creditworthiness high. Keeping your money is the 1st step of a 2-step safe strategy for today’s Debt World. (Keep reading.)
 
8. Value is Getting Trounced by Growth
The technology and biotechnology-rich NASDAQ Composite Index (growth) has almost tripled the returns of the Dow Jones industrial average (value) over the last three years. There are reasons for that – having a lot to deal with too much debt, slow growth, financial engineering and expensive share prices.
 
9. Dividends Don’t Pay When Your Principal Plunges
The higher the dividend, the higher the risk. It’s not worth it to take on an underperforming company that gives you a small dividend, commonly under 2%, if you’re at risk of losing your principal. When you subtract the fees, the promised yield becomes even more anemic. High-yield private placement REITs put your principal at risk and may charge you higher fees and commissions than you realize. They are typically very illiquid. They pay very high commissions to brokers, which is why you might be sold them if you tell your broker-salesman that you are concerned and want to get safe. Read D&T’s real-world warning, which is based on their personal experience.
 
10. Safe, Income-Producing Hard Assets that You Purchase for a Good Price
Hard assets should hold their value better than paper assets in our Debt World – providing you don’t buy high, aren’t overleveraged or can truly (and easily) afford what you purchased. The mantra, and 2nd step in a Get Safe Plan, is to look for safe, income-producing hard assets that you purchase for a good price, considering a post-pandemic world. That’s difficult for two reasons. Real estate prices are at all-time highs and are unaffordable in many markets. Interest rates are rising, making it more difficult to finance. And it’s getting harder to be a landlord. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, “Missed rental payments now total $41.7 billion, missed mortgage payments total $76.5 billion, and missed student loan payments total $155 billion” as of the 2nd quarter of 2021. With less travel, due to the pandemic and to many conferences being hosted online, AirBNB hosts may find far fewer guests.

11. Think Bigger and Get Creative
Money is a means (not the end) to help us provide better for our families and to live a richer life. When we consider all of the things that are important to us, and become more holistic about our ability to change our own circumstances, then (and only then) do things change. Those loved ones we care about and the world at large benefit. When we expand our vision and embrace the power of our consumption and investing choices, our wealth and reach have a broader, positive affect.
 
As just a few examples, intergenerational housing is on the rise and is actually higher today than it was in the Great Depression. This helps to keep the money in the family, and stops making the landlord rich. Rooftop solar is a great way to reduce your personal electric bill, while also cleaning up the grid. That leaves thousands of dollars annually in your budget for things you’d like more than paying electric bills. Oil companies are in business because we visit the pump regularly. How can you become part of the solution?
 
Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is was written in 2006. It is imperative today. These are things we will discuss at the retreat this weekend, and also in the videoconference on October 28, 2021. 
 

Bottom Line
There are solutions to protecting your wealth in a Debt World. These are so important (and so faintly highlighted in the mainstream media) that I spend one full day on this subject at our Investor Education Retreats.
 
The age-old aphorisms and warnings should be billboards for investors today. Anytime someone tells you they have a safe investment that is earning above 1.5% that is a red flag (and a prevarication). Join me this weekend for our Investor Educational Retreat. We outline all of the strategies mentioned above and much more in three days of life-transformational, interactive, hands-on training. Email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to learn more now.
 
If you’d like to join me live for our free videoconference on Oct. 28, 2021, email info@NataliePace.com with VIDEOCON in the subject line.
 

​Other Blogs of Interest
Inflation, Gasoline Prices & Recessions
Will There Be a Santa Rally?
The Dangerous Debt Ceiling Game
The Robinhood IPO.
Will the Crypto Crash Hit Tesla, Square & Coinbase?
China: GDP Soars. Share Prices Sink. 
The Competition Heats Up for Tesla & Nio. 
How Green in Your Love for the Planet?
S&P500 Hits a New High. GDP Should  be 7% in 2021!
2021 Financial Freedom Sweepstakes
Will Work-From-Home and EVs Destroy the Oil Industry?
Insurance and Hedge Funds are at Risk and Over-Leveraged.
Office Buildings are Still Ghost Towns.
Money Market Funds, FDIC, SIPC: Are Any of Them Safe? 
My 24-Year-Old is Itching to Buy a Condo. Should I Help Him?
Will Cannabis be Decriminalized This Summer?
The 12-Step Guide to Successful Investing.
​Gardeners Creating Sanctuary & Solutions in Food Deserts.
2021 Company of the Year
​Almost 5 Million Americans are Behind on Rent & Mortgage. Real Estate Hits All-Time High.
​Beyond Meat, Oatly & The Very Good Food Co. 
Is Cryptocurrency the New Gold?
Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test.
Answers to the Rebalancing Your Nest Egg IQ Test.
Tesla & Nio Will Report Spectacular Earnings.
The Coinbase IPO.
Restore Our Earth on April 22nd (and Every Earth Day).
Should You Sell in May and Go Away? 
Adding Shoot the Moon Performance to Your Nest Egg.
Videoconferencing in a Post-Pandemic World (featuring Zoom & Teladoc).
Sanctuary Sandwich Home. Multigenerational Housing. Interview with Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. 
10 Budget Leaks That Cost $10,000 or More Each Year.
The Stimulus Check. Party Like It's 1999. 
Kushner's Times Square Building Plunges 80% in Value.
Will There be a Spring Rally?
Cannabis and the Road to Decriminalization in the U.S.
Hot ETFs Return Up to 50% Since October. 
​Investor IQ Test 2021.
Investor IQ Test Answers
​Shoot the Moon Stock Picks
​2021 Crystal Ball.
Would You Pay $50 for a Cafe Latte? Is Your Tesla Stock Overpriced?
Can Medmen Avoid Bankruptcy?
​Bitcoin is Back, Baby!
Real Estate Prices are Going Up. And Down.
​Cannabis is Decriminalized. Stocks Triple.
Thanksgiving in a Pandemic. The Sustainability Silver Lining.
Money Stress Killed My Friend
Real Estate and Housing 2021. Challenges & Opportunities
​Real Estate in a Pandemic. Interview with Mike Fratantoni, the Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
​Bonds are Illiquid & Negative-Yielding.
Annual Rebalancing is a Buy Low, Sell High Plan on Auto-Pilot.
​Is Your Bank a Junk Bond
Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is.
Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist on What's Safe.
China's Tesla (Nio). 2Q Sales Soar.
Why Are You Still Renting? (Errr. There is More Than This to Consider!)
​Wealth Myths That Keep You Poor. Prosperity Truths That Make You Rich. 
Technology and Silver are Golden.
Real Estate: Feeling Equity Rich? Make Sure That Feeling Isn't Fleeting.
Airline Revenue Plunges 86%. 
10 Questions for College Success.
Is FDIC-Insured Cash at Risk of a Bank Bail-in Plan?
8 Money Myths, Money Pits, Scams and Conspiracy Theories.
Why Are My Bonds Losing Money?
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.

​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

About Natalie Pace
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money was released on September 17, 2021. 

Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. ​

​High oil and gasoline prices are highly correlated with recessions. So is inflation. Check out the charts below. (The shaded areas are recession years.)
 

The highest gasoline prices in the U.S. occurred right before the Great Recession, when a barrel of oil was trading at $141 and retail gasoline prices jumped to $4.11 a gallon. Today’s prices are $80.50 per barrel for oil, and $3.30/gallon at the pump. That’s lower than 2008, but much higher than normal (and what folks can afford).
 
Inflation
On Oct. 13, 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (all items) rose 5.4% in September compared to September 2020. The “food and shelter” indices accounted for more than half of the increase (housing, food and gasoline). According to the National Association of Realtors, “Due to high home prices, 4.8 million fewer households can buy a residence versus two years ago, even though mortgage rates are lower than in 2019.” Additionally, this is the first time since 1972 that inflation is higher than the average rate on a 30-year mortgage, according to NAR’s senior economist and director of forecasting Nadia Evangelou.
 
Consumer Spending and GDP Growth
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the US GDP growth each year. When consumers have to spend a lot more on gasoline and other basic needs (inflation), they have less to spend on other goods and services. When inflation-imposed belt tightening in the budget coincides with other household challenges, like high unemployment, a downturn in real estate or stock prices, or bond market gyrations, then the economy can experience a period of financial instability. The last such periods were in 2020 during the pandemic, in 2008 during the Great Recession, and in 2000-2002 when Dot Coms busted out.

​Before the Great Recession, real estate was overleveraged and equities were at an all-time high. Both assets tanked in tandem. Today, real estate prices are back to all-time highs, as are equities.

Leverage
Many of us are aware of the amount of public debt ($28.4 trillion). Fewer of us are aware of consumer and corporate debt. Over half of the S&P 500 is at or near junk-bond status. Consumer debt is higher than ever. Margin trading is also at an all-time high. 2/3 of millennials who purchased a home recently have buyer's remorse and worry that they purchased it at too high of a price. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, the total amount of loans and debt in the U.S. is an eye-watering $85 trillion.

​The Federal Reserve Board has warned that risk appetite is elevated. According to their Financial Stability Report that was released in May of 2021, “Should risk appetite decline from elevated levels, a broad range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large and sudden declines, which can lead to broader stress to the financial system.”
 
Financial Instability and Sudden Market Drops
Low interest rates create asset bubbles. When asset prices get too lofty, the correction can look like a falling knife. During the pandemic, between February 19 and March 23, 2020, we saw the fastest switchback from a bull market to a bear, when the S&P 500 dropped 38% in about a month.

​2021 GDP for the U.S.
The U.S., China and world GDP growth rates have been revised downward. 5.9% in the U.S. and 8.1% in China are still impressive. However, it’s a good thing to remember that this is a bounce off a terrible year in 2020 for the world. In 2020, most of the world experienced an unprecedented economic contraction, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (2020 is represented in red below; 2021 in green.)

The resurgence of the Delta Variant of COVID-19 was responsible for a weaker than expected 3rd quarter. The 1Q and 2Q 2021 U.S. GDP growth were 6.3% and 6.7%, respectively. However, the 3Q 2021 growth is predicted to come in at under 4%. Since institutional investors and hedge funds are forward-thinking, a stock sell-off might happen before the data is released on the morning of  Oct. 28th. This could be part of the reason that stocks dropped by 5% in September.
 
Asset Prices are Elevated
Wall Street analysts and economists are aware that stock prices are high, and bonds are illiquid and negative yielding. Below is the current liquidity data on bonds compared to gold and the S&P 500.  

​

​The chart from December of 2019 (below) reveals that bonds were weak even before the pandemic.

Dow Jones stocks had almost as much of a problem finding buyers as bonds in late 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a greater concentration of the legacy, indebted companies, while the NASDAQ Composite Index tends toward younger, low-debt, high-growth companies. (The S&P500 is a compilation of companies from both indices.) During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Board printed up a lot of money and became a lender of last resort to a lot of slow-growth, debt-laden companies, including “fallen angels” such as Ford Motor Company, which is now rated BB+ with a negative outlook (speculative status).
 
Very High Stock Prices
As you can see in the CAPE chart below, the Great Depression has now fallen to the third highest period of stock speculation. The highest was before the Dot Com Recession, when the NASDAQ Composite Index lost up to 78% of its value between March 2000 and October 2002. Today is the second highest period of pricey equity valuations, per Professor Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio, which is a 10-year average of price-earnings ratios.


​

What Do You Do?
Incorporating a time-proven, 21st Century system is your best strategy, rather than market timing or trying to outsmart policymakers, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. A lot of U.S. publicly-traded companies provide things that the world relies upon daily for our interconnected world and technology-driven lives. March of 2020 afforded investors a rare opportunity to purchase many of our favorite FANG* stocks at a 50-75% discount off the prices being traded today.
 
The pandemic showed us that even during the worst economic challenges we’ve seen in our lifetime, we still use (and pay for) technology, biotechnology, communications, Wi-Fi, utilities and even toilet paper (consumer staples).
 
A Time-Proven 21st Century Strategy
Our easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies with regular rebalancing are time-proven in the 21st Century, at a time when Buy & Hope is like riding a Wall Street rollercoaster. Research by Pew indicates that most Americans are worth less today than they were in the late 1990s. This has a lot to do with the severity of recessions in today’s world.

​Younger investors might be mistaken to think that recessions can last only two months and then everything goes back to normal. However, that has not been the case. The NASDAQ Composite Index took 15 years to come back to even from its losses in 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average took five years to recover from over 55% losses in the Great Recession.
 
Using bull markets to make up losses is not an efficacious wealth strategy. When your wealth drops by half, your credit score plunges, your liquidity is constrained and you might have to take on another job to pay your bills.
 
Our nest egg pie chart system protects you from losses by keeping the proper amount safe. You might far outperform the general market with hot industries. You’ll have the liquidity to buy low when stocks are trading cheap. Regular rebalancing is a buy low, sell high system on auto-pilot that takes the emotions out of investing.
 
Most people do not buy low because they can’t. If you don’t have enough cash on hand, you can’t buy low. Another barrier to bargain prices on Wall Street is that when prices decline so far, people become afraid to invest.
 
Bottom Line
Inflation, political uncertainty, high unemployment, high gas prices, leverage, debt and financial instability continue to plague the world’s economies, even in a stellar recovery year, like 2021. Market timing won’t help you. A diversified plan that is regularly rebalanced will. You can read about it in The ABCs of Money and Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is. You can learn and implement it at our 3-day Investor Educational Retreats. You can secure an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current plan that includes a blueprint to better wealth protection and asset optimization. Email info@nataliepace.com with 2nd Opinion in the subject line for pricing and information.
 
*FANG: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia, Google.
 

About Natalie Pace
Natalie Wynne Pace is an Advocate for Sustainability, Financial Literacy & Women's Empowerment. She has been ranked as a No. 1 stock picker, above over 835 A-list pundits, by an independent tracking agency (TipsTraders). The ABCs of Money remained at or near the #1 Investing Basics e-book on Amazon for over 3 years (in its vertical), with over 120,000 downloads and a mean 5-star ranking. The 5th edition of The ABCs of Money was released on September 17, 2021. 

Natalie Pace's easy as a pie chart nest egg strategies earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. That is why her Investor Educational Retreats, books and private coaching are enthusiastically recommended by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary S. Becker, TD AMERITRADE chairman Joe Moglia, Kay Koplovitz and many Main Street investors who have transformed their lives using her Thrive Budget and investing strategies. Click to view a video testimonial from Nilo Bolden. ​

Watch my free videoconference.

Will there be a Santa Rally in 2021? Do you remember December of 2018, the worst December since the Great Depression, when the S&P500 dropped -14% in the last quarter of the year (with -9.2% losses in December)? Will dysfunction in the Beltway spoil the party on Wall Street?

The Debt Ceiling Crisis
On September 30, 2021, Congress passed a bill to fund the government through December 3, 2021. At that point they’ll either have to pass a full budget for the fiscal year of 2022 or punt the ball again. The good news is that it was in time to avert a government shutdown. However, the Debt Ceiling crisis is still looming.
 
Although Congress technically has until October 18, 2021, before the Treasury Department runs out of money to pay their bills, the debt ceiling suspension should have already happened. There are many reasons for that. With Republicans blocking votes to raise the Debt Ceiling, the pathway to success is tricky. Additionally, brinkmanship can roil the markets. Wall Street has become inured to the Beltway circus. However, the closer the U.S. gets to the default date without a solution, the less patient investors will be. There is also the issue of the U.S. AAA credit rating with Moody’s and Fitch Ratings.
 
On August 2nd of 2011 the Debt Ceiling was suspended on the exact day when the U.S. would have defaulted. There wasn’t any delay in payments. However, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the U.S. to AA+ rating. Fitch Ratings currently has the U.S. AAA rating on a negative outlook. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned on September 21, 2021, that failure to lift or suspend the Debt Ceiling could result in 6 million jobs lost, a stock market meltdown, $15 trillion of household wealth evanescing and unemployment skyrocketing to 9%.  
​

5.9% GDP
5.9% GDP growth is the best we’ve seen in decades — since 7.2% GDP growth in 1984. That would normally signal a strong Santa Rally.
 
Stock market performance can be highly correlated with GDP performance. Since 2008, it has been more highly correlated with Federal Reserve policy, which is why the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” has become a Wall Street commandment.
 
​3Q 2021 Slowed Down
Third quarter 2021 GDP growth estimates will be released on October 28, 2021, at 8:30 AM eastern time. The second quarter grew at a rate of 6.7%. The first quarter came in 6.3% higher. 3Q2021 is predicted to slow down due to the Delta Variant and supply chain bottlenecks. Forecasters have pegged the rate at somewhere Between 3.2 and 3.8% GDP growth. That’s still respectable, particularly in a pandemic. However, it’s clearly far below the first and second quarters. That could spook some investors, particularly since stocks are very pricey.
 
Stocks are High
Stock valuations are very high. As an example, Amazon is worth $1.7 trillion, but has only $21.33 billion in annual net income. The company’s forward price-earnings ratio is 64. The historical average price-earnings ratio is 17 (according to S&P Global Indices). According to Federal Reserve data, forward PEs are so high that they are back to the very speculative status that occurred before the Dot Com Recession. As a reminder, that recession cost the NASDAQ Composite Index 78% of its value between March 2000 and October 2002. In the CAPE Ratio chart below (source: Professor Robert Shiller), the Great Depression has now fallen to the 3rd most highly speculative time in the last century, behind today, with the Dot Com Recession still claiming the top seat.

In the words of the Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report issued on May 6, 2021, “Should risk appetite decline from elevated levels, a broad range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large and sudden declines, which can lead to broader stress to the financial system.”
 
Very High Margin Trading
Margin trading is also elevated. Many traders are borrowing to invest. That will spell trouble if the markets decline, and could speed up the pace of the rout. Brokerages have policies to liquidate holdings and cover their own loans, even without their client’s permission.
 
What About Real Estate
Real estate prices are also elevated. Mortgage rates are rising. The good news is that many homeowners have historically low fixed rates locked in. The bad news is that up to two-thirds of new Millennial home buyers are regretting their purchase.

Bottom Line
Even with the S&P500 down almost 5% in September, the market index is still up 16.4% on the year. That’s an excellent return. So, will the Santa Rally make investors even happier than they already are on the year? If the debt ceiling is raised or suspended within the next few days, if Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Analytics reaffirm the AAA credit rating of the US, if the pandemic abates, if corporations continue their robust stock buyback plans, if consumers keep spending and if investors remain optimistic, stocks should go up.
 
There are a lot of ifs in that sentence. A Debt Ceiling debacle or a credit downgrade could easily spark a crash in the markets.
 
That is why your best strategy right now would be to fix the roof while the sun is still shining. Know what you own. Make sure that you are safe, protected, hot and diversified, and that you know what is safe in a world where bonds and money market funds are vulnerable. Jumping all in or all out of the stock market doesn’t work. (Don’t fight the Fed.) However, being properly diversified and rebalancing regularly is a buy low, sell high plan on autopilot, particularly if you are using our nest egg pie chart system.
 
If you’re interested in protecting your wealth now, consider joining us for our October 23-25, 2021 Investor Educational Retreat. You can also request information about receiving an unbiased second opinion of your current wealth, investing and retirement strategy. Email info@nataliepace.com with “Retreat” or “2nd Opinion” in the subject line.
 

Late yesterday, on September 21, 2021, The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation that would suspend the debt ceiling through Dec. 16, 2022, and fund the government through Dec. 3, 2021. (The bill is called the “Extending Government Funding and Delivering Emergency Assistance Act,” H.R. 5305.) It still must pass the Senate. Republicans, led by Mitch McConnell, have vowed to prevent it from passing there.
 
The issue here is a very technical one. Over the years, the debt ceiling has been suspended, with no specific amount attached to it. Once the period of suspension is over, the debt limit is adjusted. For example, the debt limit was suspended in August of 2019 (under the Trump Administration). At the time of the suspension, the U.S. public debt was at $22.46 trillion. By the time the suspension ended on July 31, 2021, the debt was at $28.5 trillion.

Yes, these numbers are astronomical, and the U.S. must reduce it. (The debate is about when and how.) Both parties contributed to it, so raising the Debt Ceiling is not a partisan issue. In fact, most of the debt under the last suspension was added under the prior Administration. The debt was at $27.8 trillion on January 20, 2021, the last day of Trump’s Presidency. Even before the pandemic, the debt was increasing at a faster level under President Trump than it did under President Obama. In Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s September 19, 2021 Wall Street Journal Op-Ed she wrote, “Raising the debt ceiling doesn’t authorize additional spending of taxpayer dollars. Instead, when we raise the debt ceiling, we’re effectively agreeing to raise the country’s credit card balance, and in this case, 97% of that balance was incurred by past congresses and presidential administrations.”

Suspending the debt ceiling has been a bipartisan endeavor in prior administrations. However, with the Senate Republicans refusing to vote for a raise and demanding that the Democrats go it alone, there would have to be a dollar amount attached to the ceiling, rather than the suspension. Clearly that would not have worked in 2019, when an unimaginable $6 trillion was needed. With the pandemic still upon us, and economic hardship still a challenge to the U.S. and the world, that strategy is risky. It is also a political weapon.
 
What’s the Risk?
With only six working days in Congress before the government shuts down, and only a few weeks before the Treasury will have to treat the U.S. finances like a piggy bank, the risks are so great that Moody’s issued an 11-page summary of how the financial meltdown would occur, warning that:
 
If lawmakers are unable to increase or suspend the debt limit before the Treasury fails to make a        payment, the resulting chaos in global financial markets will be difficult to bear. The U.S. and global economies, which still have a long way to go to recover from the recession caused by the pandemic, will descend back into recession. In times past, lawmakers have taken strident warnings like these to heart, and acted. Let us hope they do so again. Soon.
 
U.S. AAA Credit Rating
The U.S. AAA credit rating, which is still in effect with Fitch Ratings and Moody’s, is also at risk. Fitch Ratings has the U.S. on a Negative Outlook, but advised on July 13, 2021, that a downgrade was unlikely in 2021. The economic growth expectations, currently at 7.0%, were too strong to warrant any action. There was an  assumption that the debt limit would be raised without any hoopla. That was the rationale for Moody’s affirmation to the AAA rating, as well. Fitch noted that failure to raise the debt limit was a “meaningful but remote tail risk to the rating.”
 
What Happened in 2011?
Today's crisis is a page out of the playbook in 2011, when Republicans refused to raise the Debt Ceiling under the Obama Administration. Congress waited until August 2, 2021 (the day the Treasury was predicted to default) to raise the Debt Ceiling. Standard and Poor’s (now S&P Global) downgraded the U.S. credit rating to AA+ (on August 5, 2011), even though the ceiling had technically been raised in time. Gold and silver soared to all-time highs. Stocks began sliding in April, a few months before the downgrade, and bottomed out at the end of September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 2011 up an anemic 2.1%, after the rollercoaster ride.

This time around, cryptocurrency could join gold and silver in the flight to “safety” party. Of the three, silver and altcoins remain the better bargains.
 
Stocks are Very Expensive
One other issue is that stocks are very expensive. To put things into perspective, the Federal Reserve has noted that forward P/Es are almost as high today as they were before the Dot Com Recession. The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped an unimaginable -78% between March of 2000 and October of 2002. The CAPE graph below, which is a 10-year average P/E created by Professor Robert Shiller, reveals that the only time stock prices were higher was in the Dot Com Recession. The Great Depression has fallen to the 3rd position.

Bottom Line
No one thought the politicians would let things get to this point – just days away from missing payments and risking the U.S. AAA credit rating. Stocks have been high because investors are jaded and accustomed to brouhaha and then last-minute deals. However, the Pandemic 2020 Recession showed us that when sentiment turns, stocks can plunge without warning. The 38% drop in the S&P500 between February 19, 2021, and March 23, 2021, was the fastest that Wall Street had ever turned to bear from a bull market. The 2011 Debt Ceiling debacle and the TARP wrangling in 2008 remind us that when the politicians play chicken with the economy, it can have significant, negative, long-lasting effects.    
 
So, what is your best protection? Reading tea leaves and trying to market time things doesn’t work. Being properly diversified, adding in some hot industries (perhaps assets that can go up if stocks go down) and knowing what is safe in a Debt World, accompanied by regular (1-3 times a year) rebalancing is a time-proven 21st Century strategy. You can read about it in the 5th edition of The ABCs of Money. You can learn and implement it at our Oct. 23-25, 2021 Investor Educational Retreat. You can also contact our office at info@NataliePace.com to receive an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current plan. Wisdom is the cure. Now is the time.