I recently spoke to somebody whose broker-salesman had told her that bond funds will go up when the markets go down. She’s already lost hundreds of thousands of dollars on that idea. “So… when will I start making money?” she asked him. After more confusing sales-speak from her advisor, she finally called our offices.

The Old Rules Don’t Apply.
Stocks are losing money. Bonds are losing money. Money market funds have redemption gates and liquidity fees. Annuity providers and insurance companies are vulnerable. Mortgage backed securities are asking for a bailout. Even Treasury bills have had liquidity issues.
​
Policy Impotence
There are two problems with bonds in the Coronavirus Recession. First of all, interest rates are at zero, so there is no room for the Feds to cut. This is something that Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Board chairman has been warning about for years. In his most recent testimony before Congress on February 11, 2020, he testified, “This low interest rate environment may limit the ability of central banks to reduce policy interest rates enough to support the economy during a downturn.”
 
As you can see in the chart below, in the prior two recessions interest rates started out much higher. It was easy to get safe in bonds in 2000 and 2008. When the recession hit, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. That action helped the bond value go up, and the safe side of your nest egg perform well. Bonds were one of the best performing assets in 2001, during the Dot Com Recession.
 

All of that changed in 2009. Central bank interest rates dropped to zero, or negative, and stayed there for the next decade to stimulate the economy during the Great Recession. The Federal Reserve Board and the White House Administration fought very publicly about the need to raise interest rates in 2018. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) bumped rates up to a mere 2.25-2.5% in December of 2018, the U.S. had the worst December on Wall Street since the Great Depression.
 
Over-Leverage and Creditworthiness
The other problem with bonds is over-leverage. Over 50% of corporate bonds are congregated just above junk bond status. This has been the case for months – well before the coronavirus crisis. There was simply no downside to going that low. Corporations could still borrow money very cheaply – in the 5-6% range. When I was discussing this with MacArthur genius award winner Kevin Murphy a few months ago, he said, “If you think the corporate bonds are scary, the municipal bonds are downright terrifying.”
 
 
Your investment grade bonds can include a lot of bonds that are vulnerable to being downgraded to junk. Many investment grade bond funds can include up to 20% of junk. At least 10% of the speculative bonds are expected to default in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. Credit was not available to these vulnerable companies over the weekend of March 14-15, 2020, which is why the Federal Reserve Board stepped in with their first wave of bail-outs. Jerome Powell admitted in his press conference briefing that “The cost of credit has risen for all but the strongest borrowers.”
 
In short, bonds are vulnerable to capital loss. The safe side of your portfolio is there to protect you from losses. If bonds can’t do that, then you need to find a strategy that will. (I spend one full day discussing what’s safe in my 3-day Investor Educational Retreats. I’ve been hosting them online every weekend since this crisis hit.)
 
Stocks.
The Coronavirus Recession set the record for the fastest that a bull market became a bear – ever (source S&P Dow Jones Indices). This has a lot to do with the amount of debt in the world, and also that stocks were in a bubble. Again, all of this was a problem before the coronavirus crisis hit. Robert Schiller has been saying since at least 2018, that the only two times that price to earnings ratios have been higher was in 1929 and in 2000. As you probably recognize, 1929 was right before the Great Depression. Between the highs of March 2000 and the lows of October 2002, the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 78%. The index took about 15 years to crawl back to even.
 
Robert Shiller CAPE Ratio Chart
March 24, 2020

Annuities and Life Insurance Aren’t as Safe as You Think Either
In an interview on CNBC, Warren Buffett recently warned that annuity providers and insurance companies get into trouble when interest rates get cut. Why? If they have promised you even something as low as a 3% return, and Treasury bills are now paying nothing, they have no profitability. They also get into trouble because these companies invest in equities. When stocks drop, they have losses. These are two of the contributors to the bailout of the insurance industry in the Great Recession. There are more. In 2008, AIG was also caught in the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) and Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV) implosion.
 
Annuities and insurance companies are not FDIC-insured. So, if the company gets into trouble, you don’t have a lot of recourse to get your money back other than State Guarantee funds. The safety net will be much lower than you’ve been promised. And those funds will be overwhelmed if many annuity customers and insurance policyholders need help at the same time. It’s a safer bet to keep your own money than to reach for yield. As Roy Rogers was fond of saying, “I’m more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.”  
 
Money Market Funds
Money market funds have redemption gates and liquidity fees. They offer banks, insurance companies and brokerages a “bail-in” plan on your dime, if financial services get into trouble. (Hint: they are in trouble. The U.S. stock market has lost 30% since the highs set on February 19, 2020.)
 
As I mentioned, there was a liquidity crisis that forced the Federal Open Market Committee to have an emergency meeting over the weekend on March 14-15, 2020 – a few days before its regularly scheduled meeting. At that time, the FOMC took a number of extreme actions to jumpstart Treasury bills, money market funds, bonds and other areas where liquidity had dried up. According to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, in his statement before the press conference on March 15, 2020, “In the past week, several important financial markets, including the market for U.S. Treasury securities, have at times shown signs of stress and impaired liquidity.”
 
 
The Bottom Line
There is just too much debt in the world. We were borrowing from Peter to pay Paul in every corner. Consumer debt is higher than ever. Student loan debt is crushing Millennials. Corporate debt is staggering. Public debt is absolutely astronomical. (See the chart above.) Real Estate prices have actually been coming down since July of 2019. However, they are still unaffordable in 71% of cities.
 
It’s very important to understand how to properly protect your wealth. Market timing doesn’t work. (Most people sell low, and buy high.) Blind faith cost Main Street investors more than half of their wealth in the last two recessions. Buy & Hope worked better in the 20th Century than it has in the 21st Century. Since 2000, B&H investors have been riding the Wall Street rollercoaster, losing more than half in the recessions and then spending most of the bull market crawling back to even.
 
There are time-proven strategies that earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. This time around, in addition to being properly diversified and keeping an appropriate amount safe, you’ll also need to know what’s safe in a world where bonds are losing money, annuities are risky and money market funds have redemption gates and liquidity fees.
 
 
 
Since we’re all in quarantine, why not join us and learn the ABCs of Money that we all should have received in high school. We live in the 21st Century. Last century strategies don’t work. The sooner you adapt, the faster your life transforms. The Thrive Budget and Easy as a Pie Chart Nest Egg Strategies will be essential tools for a post coronavirus world.  
 
March 28-31, 2020 Online Investor Retreat
Our most affordable
Easy access…
 

This week we have many important events on calendar for your consideration. Click to access a special video message from me on what will be happening at each event. 


1. Tuesday, March 24, 2020. 4:30 ET (1:30 PT). Special Videoconference Update on the economy and markets. Are we in a recession? How bad is it? What's your best strategy? Free. Private.

Register by emailing info@NataliePace.com with the subject line: March 24, 2020 Videoconference.

2. Thursday, March 26, 2020. noon ET (9 am PT). Interview with Rob McEwen, the Chief Owner of McEwen Mining and a 30-year veteran of the gold mining industry. Free. Public. A link to join us will be sent out to everyone on our mailing list and posted on my Twitter feed. 

​3. Saturday-Monday. March 28-31, 2020. 9 am to 6 pm ET. 3-day Online Investor Educational Retreat. Learn the ABCs of Money that we all should have received in high school. Protect your wealth. Learn how to save thousands annually in your budget with smarter big ticket choices. Position yourself best for the 21st Century and a post-coronavirus crisis.

Click on the flyer link above to learn more, to read testimonials and to get pricing information.

Register by emailing info@NataliePace.com with the subject line: March 28, 2020 Retreat. 

Other Blogs of Interest
Tomorrow is Going to be Another Tough Day.
Price Matters. Stock Prices are Still Too High. 
Should You Ride Things Out?
7 Recession Indicators
Corona Virus Update.
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

​Premarket trading hit the circuit breakers, meaning that stocks were already down 5%, just minutes after the Federal Reserve Board concluded an emergency meeting and published their actions. The FOMC cut interest rates to zero on Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 5 p.m. ET, and took a number of steps to provide liquidity to the global and domestic credit markets. The chatter from all of my friends on Wall Street was alarming overnight, as texts flew back and forth past midnight, and again as early as 4 am this morning.

As you know, I’ve been warning about this for a while. And I also warned you that if you waited for the headlines, it would be too late to protect yourself.
 
The global economic squeeze that we are currently experiencing was triggered by the coronavirus. However, it is amplified by the asset bubbles and leverage. 

 

Things are far from over. It is still a very good idea to adopt the Nest Egg Pie Chart® and Thrive Budget® strategies. See below for a few tips on how to do this.
 
Teleconferences. Yes, we will have a teleconference or video conference this week. It will either be on Tuesday or Thursday. I will keep you posted on this blog. So just come back to NataliePace.com/blog frequently over the next 24 hours for updates. I will not be emailing you with each update. However, I will be providing ongoing information in this blog and on my page in the Twitter feed. 
 
What should you do? Panic is not a plan. Market timing doesn’t work. Buy and Hope is a last century strategy that doesn’t work in the 21st Century. You can access Web Apps to personalize your own sample Nest Egg Pie Chart® and Thrive Budget® by going to the home page at Natalie Pace.com and clicking on the free Web app badge. Knowing what a time-proven strategy looks like is a very good start.
 ​

If you are having difficulty understanding what you currently own, or how to make what you have look like the sample, then consider getting a 2nd opinion. Call 310-430-2397 or email info@NataliePace.com for pricing and information.

​The nest egg and budget strategies will make more sense if you have read The ABCs of Money. I will be posting the 3rd edition as soon as I can over the next few days. The 2nd edition is pretty up-to-date, as it was published in 2018. However, the 3rd edition will include coronavirus information. The world has changed a lot in two years. 
​
Again, I will have updates. I am here to help you navigate. There are so many people in need of help, who didn’t prepare properly beforehand, that we may need to host a few video conferences/mini retreats. I’ll keep you posted here, in this blog, about those as well.
 
I strongly encourage you to share the free Nest Egg Pie Chart® and Thrive Budget® web apps with your friends.
 
If you are interested in learning more, I have done quite a few blogs over the past few months. Scroll through the list below, and you are likely to find something that you desire to read.



“Riding it out” is not a time-proven plan. Buy and Hold has been losing more than half in the last two corrections. Proper diversification with annual rebalancing protects you from downturns and allows you to profit from bull markets and strength (instead of praying and hoping to gain back the losses you endured by riding it out). In today’s world you have to know what is safe because there are a lot of historically safe products that are vulnerable to capital loss this time around.
 
Consider getting a second opinion on your current plan now. Call 310-430-2397 or email info @ NataliePace.com to learn more.
​

Other Blogs of Interest
Price Matters. Stock Prices are Still Too High. 
Should You Ride Things Out?
7 Recession Indicators
Corona Virus Update.
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Price matters. Stock Prices are Still Too High.
Dow futures are pointing to another down day. It's hard to know who to trust. Trust results that include the Great Recession. If you’re looking at your gains in the bull market, then you are not properly prepared for what your plan will do (and has done) in bear markets. Buy & Hope lost more than half in the last two recessions. Our easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies, with annual rebalancing earned gains in the last 2 recessions, when most investors lost more than half, and have outperformed the bull markets in between.
 
Market timing doesn't work either. In fact, this time around, the safe (fixed income) side is as vulnerable as the equity side. Annuity providers and insurance companies are going to be hit hard by lower interest rates and by the stock decline. These products are not FDIC-insured. Money market funds have redemption gates and liquidity fees. Bonds are overleveraged. (Click for additional information on each blue highlighted word.)
 
Time-Proven Strategies Work
"Thank you Natalie for saving my retirement!" Nilo Bolden. Watch Nilo Bolden discuss this in her video testimonial at the link below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMmsuT84S7E
 
"Many people, including educated men and women, often get into trouble when they neglect to follow simple and fundamental rules of the type provided [by Natalie]. This is why I recommend them with enthusiasm." Professor Gary S. Becker. Dr. Becker won the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics for his theories on human capital.
 
"College students need this information before they get their first credit card. Young adults need it before they buy their first home. Empty nesters can use the information to downsize to a sustainable lifestyle, before they get into trouble." Joe Moglia, Chairman, TD AMERITRADE.

​Price Matters. They are Still Too High.
You’re going to start hearing a lot of pundits and economists talking about the price of stocks. That is because price matters, and prices are still too high – even with a 20% correction. If you’ve been following my news you know that I’ve been reporting on this for a while. (Click to see my blog on the topic.)
 
If you’re a data lover, here’s the rub: historical price to earnings ratios are 16-17. Today, even with the correction, they are at 26. Once earnings are reported in the 1st quarter, which is predicted to be very ugly, the earnings side goes down, which makes the P/E ratio higher. The gist of that is that stock prices were very high historically when earnings were strong – way too high. Earnings weakness, combined with weakness in consumer spending and supply chain disruptions, make the market very vulnerable to a continued correction.
 
In Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller’s words, “The only time in history going back to 1881 when [CAPE] has been higher are, A: 1929 and B: 2000. We are at a high level, and it’s concerning. People should be cautious now.” I’ve had this warning in my blogs for over a year. Click to read my interview with Professor Shiller from a few months ago.
 

How Can You Protect Yourself?
What can you do to protect yourself? If you’ve been following my work for a few decades you know that my strategies have been saving homes and nest eggs since 1999. There are very few strategies that achieved that. Easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies with annual rebalancing are actually quite simple. The Thrive budget is simple in theory, but requires brave, innovative and bold choices to increase your income and reduce your expenses. So, you have to get educated now, and it’s a good idea to do that quickly, so that you can protect your wealth now, before the situation gets worse.
 
That is why I’m offering a 2nd opinion on your current plan. You’ll receive a pie chart of what you currently have, a pie chart of a better plan and my commentary on the areas of strength and weakness in your budgeting and investing strategy. That provides you with an action plan. You’re the boss of your money. I’m not a broker. I don’t sell financial products. My business is financial wisdom and time-proven systems, so that you truly know what you own and can make strong, sound choices to protect your wealth and live a rich, sustainable life.
 
I have included a list of my blogs below. If there’s anything that is of interest to you just click on that blog. Chances are I’ve already written about the things you are most concerned about. If you have other questions, or are interested in a 2nd opinion or in attending my next retreat, call 310-430-2397 or email our office at info@nataliepace.com. I’d love to see you at the June Retreat in Santa Monica, or the October Retreat in Arizona. However, I would not wait that long to get your assets safe, protected and properly diversified, if I were you.
 
“Riding it out” is not a time-proven plan. Buy and Hold has been losing more than half in the last two corrections. Proper diversification with annual rebalancing protects you from downturns and allows you to profit from bull markets and strength (instead of praying and hoping to gain back the losses you endured by riding it out). In today’s world you have to know what is safe because there are a lot of historically safe products that are vulnerable to capital loss this time around.
 
Consider getting a second opinion on your current plan now. Call 310-430-2397 or email info @ NataliePace.com to learn more.


​

Other Blogs of Interest
Should You Ride Things Out?
7 Recession Indicators
Corona Virus Update.
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Dear Natalie,
 
On Monday March 9, 2020, when the stock market posted the worst point loss on record, I called up my financial advisor to discuss our strategy. Her response was, “Just ride it out.” I looked at various blogs online, and that seemed to be the consensus. A lot of them said, “Market timing doesn’t work.”
 
However, I lost more than half in the Great Recession, and quite a lot in the Dot Com Recession, too. So, I’m just not comfortable sitting on my hands for the next downturn. I’m too close to retirement to lose that much again. However, I have no clue of what to do.
 
Stressed Out and Clueless
 
Dear Smart to be Stressed Out,
 
Here are a few facts to consider.
 

• Economists are predicting that there is a 60-65% chance of a 2020 Recession.
• The cost of the last 2 recessions = most investors lost more than 50%. (55% in the Great Recession; 78% in the Dot Com Recession.)
• It took the NASDAQ Composite Index 15 years to crawl back to even from the Dot Com Recession.
• It took 7 years for the Dow to recover in the Great Recession.
• There are still 3.5 million mortgages that are severely underwater from the Real Estate Bubble bursting 13 years ago.
• “Ride it out” is a sales slogan. At the bottom of the bear market that slogan changes to, “If you sell now, you’ll be selling low.”
• Market timing doesn’t work. It’s not a matter of riding it out or jumping out. A proper plan protects you from market corrections, and allows you to profit from bull markets – instead of losing half and only recovering your losses in the bull markets, which is what has happened to most investors in the 21st Century).
• There is an easy plan that keeps you safe from downturns, while earning gains in the bull markets. That plan isn’t used by old-school brokerages yet. Many of them are still set up to profit from the Buy & Hope plan, which is a last century idea that hasn’t worked at all in the 21st Century. However, there are brokerages that use a better plan. Many of those brokerages also encourage annual rebalancing, which is another hallmark of our time-proven system.

 
 
If you lost more than half twice in the 21st Century, that’s a big red flag that you have far too much at risk. If we are entering a recession, and your strategy is to ride it out, you are risking losing half of your wealth again – just as you did in the last two downturns.
 
If you are close to retirement, you aren’t supposed to have very much at risk in the stock market. Even if you are just entering the work force, it would be a good idea to overweight safe since this could be a recessionary year. If you don’t know how to read your brokerage statement or your retirement plan, you may need to get an outside, unbiased 2nd opinion to know what you really own and how much you really have at risk. If you’re being counseled to ride it out, then you might just hit a lot more sales-speak when you for details to understand exactly what you own and why.
 
So, in summation, “Ride it out” is never a good idea. If you are on a losing team, then you would work hard to get a new game plan and to strengthen the areas that are weak. It’s true for winning in sports. It’s true for winning in life. It’s true for winning in investing. Wisdom, a good plan and right action are the cure.
 
You are stressed out because you know deep down that your plan is wrong. That's smart. However, now you need to learn what a better plan looks like. We're here to help. Call 310-430-2397 or email info@NataliePace.com. 

​
If you’d like to see what a personalized sample nest egg pie chart looks like, just email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to access our free web apps. If you’re interested in knowing exactly what you own, how much at risk you are for losses, and what you can do to protect your wealth, then consider getting an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current financial plan. Call 310-430-2397 or email for pricing and information.

Other Blogs of Interest
7 Recession Indicators
Corona Virus Update.
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Before we dig into the data, I want to offer a word of warning. If you wait for the headlines that the economy is in a recession, it will be too late. Below are two examples of this…
 
1. On February 14, 2020, I warned in my blog (click to access it) that Apple, and many other companies, were going to miss their earnings guidance. That was just a few days before the S&P500 hit an all-time high. On February 17, 2020, Apple issued a statement that they would miss their guidance. Between February 20, 2020 and the end of the month, stocks dropped over 12.4%. Over 100 companies in the S&P500 have gone on to state that they will miss their earnings projections.

2. On December 27, 2007, we warned that the economy was headed for a very deep recession, and encouraged everyone to overweight 20% safe, in addition to keeping a percentage equal to their age safe, in their nest egg. The market high was in October of 2007. Between the high and the low of September 9, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 55%. Most Americans were unaware of how deep and costly the Great Recession would be, until they had already lost half. The politicians didn’t admit we needed a bailout until October of 2008.
 
The big questions on everyone’s mind today are: “Will things get even uglier? Are we headed into a recession? Will the stock market losses this time around be as terrible and terrifying as the last time?”
 
Again, if you wait for the headlines, it’s too late. What does work is reading the data. So, here’s the crystal ball reading, by the numbers. If the explanation puzzles or confuses you, just scroll to the end for the summation.
 
Below are 7 Recession Indicators, all of which portend bad news. 
 
1. Moody’s Warning.
2. Emergency Rate Cut of 50 Basis Points.
3. Worst 12-Day Move.
4. Inverted Yield Curve.
5. Executive Exodus.
6. Earnings Warnings.
7. Manufacturing Recession.
 
And here is a little more color on each point.
 
1. Moody’s Warning. On March 6, 2020, Moody’s Investors Services issued a warning that Global Recession Risks had risen. In particular, a sustained pullback in consumption and store/factory closures would “hurt earnings, drive layoffs and weigh on sentiment.” Since that alert was published, Italy has locked down the northern part of the country. Major conferences have been postponed. Cities are encouraging their citizens to stay at home and away from social contact.
 
In truth, this is a flu virus. So, the crisis should start abating at some point over the next few months. However, the damage of having the entire world on lockdown during the first quarter of 2020 will ripple throughout the global economy.
 
2. Emergency Rate Cut of 50 Basis Points. The last time that the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points was in December of 2008 – just before General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy. The market bottom in the Great Recession occurred just three months later, on March 9, 2009.
 
3. Worst 12-Day Move. The loss of 12.4% between February 19, 2020 and March 6, 2020 was one of the worst 12-day moves that the markets have seen. Other terrifically bad 12-day moves happened in 2011, in 2009 (multiple times) and in 2008. What I find interesting is that none of the downturns have triggered a halt in trading. That tells me that the sell-off is from Wall Street insiders who are strategically selling with a plan not to trip the halt trading switch. The “smart money” tends to move first. Main Street tends to wait for the headlines before reacting, which is always too late.
 
4. Inverted Yield Curve. An inverted yield curve is 100% correlated with recessions, since the 1980s. The grey bars below mark the recessions. 

 
5. Executive Exodus. Since the coronavirus outbreak was announced, we’ve seen an executive exodus. This is always a bad sign. Bob Iger suddenly decided that he’d give his job as CEO up, but remain the executive chairman (essentially the boss of the new CEO). That ensures that Iger keeps his stellar track record of increasing Disney’s market capitalization five-fold under his tenure, largely through the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm and 21st Century Fox. Iger is going out on top.
 
Steve Ells, the chairman and founder of Chipotle, announced on March 6, 2020 (Friday) that he would step down as executive chairman of Chipotle. Ells is going out on top, too.
 
According to Business Insider, January 2020 set a record for the most CEO departures in one month, at 219. Other companies where executives are leaving their offices include Hulu, Tinder/Match, MedMen, Salesforce, IBM, LinkedIn, Mastercard and more.
 
6. Earnings Warnings. Apple, Microsoft and over 400 companies have warned that the coronavirus will impact their 1st quarter earnings. Which industries and companies will be the hardest hit? Read my Coronavirus blogs.
 
7. Manufacturing Recession. Manufacturing has been in a recession since mid-2019. Boeing’s 737 Max problems are hitting the manufacturing industry very hard.
 
Spring Rally 2020
It’s important to remember that it takes two quarters of negative growth for the economy to be declared in a recession. That means that if we enter a recession in the first quarter, it won’t be proclaimed until July 30, 2020. That is one of the reasons why there could still be a Spring Rally in stocks between now and April. We have seen ample indicators of a dramatic slowing of the worldwide economy, and plenty of reasons to suspect that we’ll have a very ugly GDP showing in the 1st quarter. However, the results won’t be announced until April 29, 2020.

​​

Additionally, accelerated buyback plans were announced recently by AT&T and Citrix. Apple has been repurchasing up to $80 billion a year of its own stock. This bull market has been largely fueled by companies borrowing money very cheaply and then buying back their own stock. Even the beleaguered Boeing company, with 737 Max planes grounded, repurchased almost $3 billion of its own stock in 2019 (though the two most recent quarters have all but halted the buybacks).  With a real crisis, like the coronavirus is posing, prudent management has to consider utilizing cash flow for operations, rather than financial engineering, so this could put a stop to buybacks. It could also be why the drop has been so severe and sudden.
 
Forecasters are still projecting GDP growth at this time. However, they are including a lot of caveats and warnings in the statements. China is still predicted to grow by 4.8% in 2020, with the U.S. GDP growth projections at 1.5% (source: Moody’s).
 
The Bottom Line: How to Survive a Recession.
It’s always a smart plan to keep a percentage equal to your age safe. Overweighting safe when there are 7 recession indicators flashing red is prudent as well. 

In today's world, you also need to know what is safe. 50% of corporate bonds are at the lowest rung, just above junk bond status. GE & Ford are not the only companies that have borrowed money to buyback their own stock (making their executives rich). Also, money market funds have redemption gates and liquidity fees. I'm listing blogs below that address all of this. However, if you want to get safe now, consider receiving a 2nd opinion from me. 

If you’d like to see what a personalized sample nest egg pie chart looks like, just email info@NataliePace.com or call 310-430-2397 to access our free web apps. If you’re interested in knowing exactly what you own, how much at risk you are for losses, and what you can do to protect your wealth, then consider getting an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current financial plan. Call 310-430-2397 or email for pricing and information.

Other Blogs of Interest
Corona Virus Update.
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Corona Virus Update. Recession 2020?
Free Teleconference Next Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 9 am PT/noon ET. Get call-in details at the end of this blog.
​
Here is the Corona Virus scorecard so far. Apple and Microsoft have warned that they will miss their earnings guidance. Disney CEO Bob Iger abruptly gave his job to someone else on February 25, 2020. (This is a red flag. Iger wants to cement his stellar reputation of increasing Disney’s market capitalization five-fold, with the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, LucasFilm and Twenty-First Century Fox.) The Dow has dropped over 3000 points since the high set on Feb. 12, 2020 (as of the market open on February 27, 2020). The global market has lost over $4 trillion.

Why is the Corona Virus causing such a stir? Will the markets recover, or is this the beginning of a recession in 2020? 

Let's discuss the facts and data, and a time-proven, recession-proof, strategy you can easily employ now.
​
Update
Our hearts and prayers are with anyone who is struggling with this virus, those who have lost loved ones and anyone who is quarantined or furloughed from work. The very personal, human cost is always the greatest. Below is an update on the economic cost of the virus.  

1. Industries, Companies and Countries Most Impacted. China is the factory to the world. Countries around the world are impacted by this virus, either from supply chain disruptions, or from having so many businesses closed in China. Please consult my CoronaVirus blog from February 14, 2020 for additional information. The industries with very high exposure to Chinese supply chain or retail include technology, fashion, casinos, airlines, auto manufacturers and more.
2. 1Q 2020 GDP Growth. Expectations in 2020 were for a global economic slowdown – before news of the CoronaVirus hit. S&P Global expects China’s economy to slow to 5% growth in 2020, if the virus is contained by March. Prior projections were for the U.S. economy to grow by 2.0% in 2020. Revisions have not yet been announced for U.S. growth. However, the U.S. is flying closer to the trees of a recession than China is. Remember that it takes two quarters of consecutive negative growth to equate to a recession. So, you won't hear about a recession until we are already seven months into it. 
3. 1Q 2020 Revenue Projection Revisions. As I mentioned, American companies, like Apple and Microsoft, have warned that they will miss their revenue guidance. Bob Iger, Disney’s CEO, transitioned out of the top management job on February 25, 2020, opting to serve the rest of his tenure through Dec. 31, 2021 as the executive chairman. Expect more announcements in the days and weeks to come, particularly in the industries, companies and countries with the most exposure to China.  

Beware of Bad Advice
 

1. Don’t Buy the Bounce. There’s a saying on Wall Street, “Don’t try to catch a falling knife.” Market timing never works. Panic isn’t a strategy either. Now is the time for another Wall Street aphorism, “Stick to your knitting.” If your financial plan is sound, then stick to it. If you don’t have a financial strategy yet, your first investment should be to learn a time-proven strategy. If your plan lost a lot in the Great Recession, that is your signal that your financial plan is not sound.
2. Buy & Hope is a last century strategy that doesn’t work in this century. Last’s century’s financial strategy, Buy & Hope, doesn’t work in the 21st Century. Most investors have lost more than half in each of the last two recessions. There is a time-proven 21st Century strategy that does work. However, if the brokerage where your money is housed is still using Buy & Hope strategies, then your plan is likely very vulnerable to the next correction. It’s time to stop riding the Wall Street rollercoaster, and start using the easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies that earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. Call 310-430-2397 or email info @ NataliePace.com to receive links to our free Web Apps for a personalized investing pie chart.
3. Beware of Dollar Cost Averaging Advice. A TV personality went on air to say she was thrilled that the markets were falling because you can now buy stocks at a lower price. It’s no fun to lose half of your wealth so that you can buy at a lower price. That just doesn’t make any sense. Dollar cost averaging is a Buy & Hope tool – one that serves old-school brokerages well, but not investors. A better strategy is annual rebalancing, which is a buy low, sell high plan on auto-pilot for your nest egg. If you’d like to protect your nest egg now, while the markets are still very high, join me at my next Investor Educational Retreat in England or Santa Monica, or receive an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current plan vs. a better plan. Call 310-430-2397 to learn more now.
4. Undervalued, Dividend Growth Stocks. When the markets are at an all-time high, and financial leverage is astronomical, there really are no undervalued dividend growth stocks. Be very careful about all of the noise that is circulating. It is misleading and could be very expensive.

 

What Does Work

1. Proper Diversification. You should always: 1) keep enough safe, 2) overweight safe in troubled times (now), 3) have small, mid, large, value and growth funds, and, 4) invest in hot industries, particularly ones that might increase in value during a market correction.
2. Annual Rebalancing. As I mentioned, annual rebalancing is a Buy Low, Sell High plan on auto-pilot. When you are using our nest egg pie chart system, then you are taking the emotions out of investing, which will serve you well.
3. Adding in Hot Industries. There are industries that can go up if the markets go down. There are products that are increasing in sales at an astonishing pace. There are certain companies that weather storms better than others. Having exposure in these areas will help you to avoid losses, and could participate in having a net positive return, even in a down year.
4. Avoiding Leverage. Over 50% of corporate bonds are at the lowest rung, just above junk status. If any of these companies have exposure to China, they are at risk of a downgrade. Investors do not receive advance notice. General Electric and Ford aren’t the only companies that were at risk before their announcements. In general, the higher the dividend, the higher the risk. So, you need to examine your value funds, where dividend stocks are usually congregated, with a forensic eye.
5. Know What’s Safe in a Debt World. Bonds, annuities and money market funds are very vulnerable to capital loss in 2020. Bonds lost money in 2018, almost in tandem with the stock market losses. These are areas where most Main Street investors get safe. So, it’s time to get informed and make solid, fact-based choices for your money. (What’s safe can change every year…) Read my Bank Bail-in on Your Dime blog for additional information.
6. Know what you own and why. Get a 2nd opinion now. Learn the ABCs of Money that we all should have received in high school (by attending a retreat and reading my books). Don’t have blind faith in your broker/salesman to do this for you. If you lost more than a third in the Great Recession, and you haven’t made any changes, you’re as vulnerable today as you were then. W​isdom is the cure.

 
Get your questions answered live in our free teleconference next Thursday, March 5, 2020, at 9 am PT/noon ET. Call:  (347) 215-7305
 
Listen back 24/7 on demand at https://www.BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.
.

Other Blogs of Interest
The Bank Bail-in Plan on Your Dime.
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

Banks and brokerages have a new bail-in plan. The next time they get in trouble, taxpayers won’t have to bail them out. The customers will. How? In 2016, the rules changed around money market funds. The changes are buried in the fine print. Basically, your investment in a money market fund is subject to losses, redemption gates (a temporary suspension of your ability to sell your shares in the fund) and liquidity fees (a fee charged to sell your shares). Money market funds are not FDIC-inured.
 
Here are links to the fine print of a Schwab, Oppenheimer and JP Morgan money market fund. They are all subject to the same rules – redemption gates and liquidity fees. However, each company has a different way of explaining what will transpire if the bank needs to keep your money. Scroll to the bottom of the page to read the fine print.

Bank staff are trained to sell customers away from FDIC insured accounts and into money market funds, where they will at least earn a little return. The gates and fees were part of a plan to thwart a run on the bank. These restrictions are also the reason why you hear the federal reserve board and other bankers talk about greater stability at the banks. Since banks and brokerages can prevent you from withdrawing your money, they’re become less vulnerable.
 
How many of customers really understand what they’ve signed up for, when they agree to transfer their money out of an FDIC insured account and into a money market fund? Oftentimes, the percentage rate is only one or two percent higher. If the value of the fund shares fall, then you can lose money on the principal, in addition to having the redemption gate and liquidity fees risks. I have yet to meet any Main Street investor who has ever even heard about the rule, though many own money market funds. Either the salesman who sold them into the money market fund doesn’t understand the risks, or she does, and sold them into it anyway. Either way, when you are sold into a product that you don’t understand, you’re still subject to the terms and conditions that you signed up for. Trying to sue because you don’t feel you were properly informed is not a good strategy.
 
Never Reach for Yield
This is a reminder that in today’s world, when interest rates are so low, trying to get any return at all on your safe side can be more dangerous than you think. It is a fool’s game to gamble that everything will keep coming up roses, when deficits and debts are ballooning, while economic growth is predicted to be under 2% in 2020. (The coronavirus is predicted to impact the first quarter pretty severely worldwide, and to slow growth in most countries this year.) We all know that you cannot borrow from Peter to pay Paul forever. There comes a time when Peter wants his money back, too.
 
Another $3.4 trillion has been added to the public debt over the last three years, which has soared to $23.4 trillion. Consumer debt is higher than it has ever been, at $14+ trillion. Corporate debt has gone completely bonkers. 50% of corporate bonds are at the lowest rung of credit rating, just above junk bond status. Trying to get a measly 2% on cash, or 4% in a bond, puts you in speculative territory. The truth of the matter is buried in the fine print. You may have bond or money market funds in your nest egg that you’ve owned for years, which have now become far riskier than they were just a few years ago. Many bond funds lost money in 2018.
 
Money Market and Bond Funds are vulnerable
Cash and bonds are supposed to be the safe side of your portfolio. If you tell your certified financial planner that you are worried about the risk in bonds, then they might try to sell you into money market funds. If you balk at that, then you might get sold into an annuity or REIT (both have risks). That is just the way that a commission-based business plan works. Brokerages sincerely want you to make a return on your money. Everyone wins in that scenario. They also have to protect themselves from downturns, as business cycles include recessions.

​The Bottom Line
It’s time for you to know exactly what you own in your financial plan, and why. A good salesman will always lead you to believe that you are just fine the way you are – or sell you something else that might earn them a higher commission. That is why you have to know the ABC’s of Money that we all should’ve received in high school. If you can’t access your money, get charged to access your money, or lose your money, you don’t have much recourse, other than just to wait and hope that everything recovers sooner rather than later. The safe side of your financial plan is supposed to be protected from loss of your principal.
 
Everything is coming up roses today. Stocks are higher than ever. Real estate prices are higher than ever, and unaffordable in 71% of US cities. Debt is eye-popping & astronomical. That is why, rather than enjoying the ride (if you’re on the right side of the income disparity), it’s time to fix the roof while the sun is still shining.
 
The Wealth Challenge
That is why our team has issued a wealth challenge to you. Add up everything you have in all of your accounts, including your 401(k) your IRA, your HSA, annuity, REITs and any savings accounts you might have. Once you get that total, celebrate! Hopefully it makes you very happy to see how much wealth you have amassed.
 
Then divide that number by half. Ask yourself if you are really willing to risk losing that much money. Why? Because the last two recessions have cost investors more than that. Buy & hope is a 20th-century strategy that hasn’t worked in the 21st-century, and will not work going forward until we cycle through this period of extremely high debt and very low economic growth.

If your strategy is just to contribute and never look at your statements, then you are just riding a Wall Street roller coaster. If you lost a third or more last time and haven’t made any changes, you’re just as vulnerable today as you were in 2007. We’re at the high now. It’s time to keep your wealth.
 
Is there a better plan than Buy & Hope? Yes. Our easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategy is based upon a trademarked system of Modern Portfolio Theory, with annual rebalancing, that earned gains in the last two recessions and has outperformed the bull markets in between. (Click to see Nilo Bolden’s video testimonial.)
 
The time to get wealth savvy and adopt a time-proven plan is now. You have a lot to gain by understanding what you own, and getting properly protected and diversified, and a lot to lose if you don’t. If you wait for the headlines that the economy is in trouble it will be too late to protect yourself. Politicians don’t admit that the economy is contracting until most of the losses have already occurred.
 
Call 310-430-2397 to get pricing and information on our unbiased 2nd opinion of your current wealth strategy, or to attend a 3-day life transformational investor educational retreat, where you will learn the ABCs of Money that we all should have received in high school. Wisdom is the cure.
 

Other Blogs of Interest
NASDAQ is Up 6X. 
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

This blog was updated on March 10, 2020.

​NASDAQ went from a low of 1,577.03 on December 30, 2008 to a high of 9,700 by February 18, 2020. That is a 6-fold+ increase. Those kind of returns, 46.8% annualized over an 11-year period, can compound your contribution and gains dramatically. As you can see from the chart below, if you were depositing $10,000 into a tax-protected retirement account, and investing in the NASDAQ Composite Index through an index fund, you'd have over half a million in just 10 years. 

If your nest egg isn't worth significantly more today than it was in 2009, that's a sign that your financial plan is faulty.

Have you spent the last decade, until very recently, trying to gain back losses? That’s a red flag that you are adhering to a 20th Century Buy & Hope strategy that hasn’t worked at all in the 21st Century. There is a time-proven system that works. It’s time to learn it.

Did you sell low at the bottom of the market, thinking we were headed into a Depression? Are you tempted to jump in now and join the party? That is investing based upon emotions – which is always going to be on the wrong side of the trade – selling low and buying high. It is also possible that you have been led astray by listening to the wrong advice.

In truth, a properly diversified plan would not put the entire $10,000 annual contribution into NASDAQ stocks. However, this calculation is a sobering reminder of the opportunity cost of:

* Neglecting to fund your retirement accounts,
* Opting to pay off old debts before you contribute to your own future,
* Waiting until you pay off debt to invest,
* Hoping that someone else will manage your money for you
* Following headlines or investing based upon a hunch, an email or a friend’s recommendations…

Our easy-as-a-pie-chart nest egg strategies with annual rebalancing earned gains in the last two recessions and have outperformed the bull markets in between. Why? Because:
​
* You always keep enough safe, which limits your losses in a downturn,
* Your investments are properly diversified, which adds stability and increases performance,
* Adding in hot industries and countries increases performance, too,
* Overweighting safe when there is greater risk of a correction is a better strategy than market timing,
* Annual rebalancing is a Buy Low, Sell High system on auto-pilot,
* The pie chart takes the emotions out of it, prompting you to do what you are supposed to do.
In today’s world, you also have to know what’s safe at a time when:
* Bonds are overleveraged and vulnerable to loss of principal,
* Money market funds have redemption gates and liquidity fees and,
* Long-term securities are high-risk, with low reward, and expose you to illiquidity and opportunity costs.
 
It’s time to know what you own, to be the boss of your money and to adopt 21st Century strategies that work. Call 310-430-2397 or email info@NataliePace.com to register for our next Investor Educational Retreat. I am also offering an unbiased 2nd opinion on your current strategy. Wisdom is the cure.

Other Blogs of Interest
CoronaVirus: Which Companies and Countries Will be Most Impacted.
Is Tesla Worth GM and Ford Combined.
Artificial Intelligence is on Fire. Is it Time to Buy S'More?
Take the Retirement Challenge.
2020 Investor IQ Test.
Answers to the 2020 Investor IQ Test.
Win a Seat at a Retreat
The Cannabis Capital Crunch and Stock Meltdown.
Does Your Commute Pollute More Than Planes? 
Are Health Care Costs Killing Your Budget? 
2020 Crystal Ball.
The Benefits of Living Green. Featuring H.R.H. The Prince of Wales' Twin Eco Communities. 
What Love, Time and Charity Have to do with our Commonwealth. Interview with MacArthur Genius Award Winner Kevin Murphy.
Unicorns Yesterday. Fairy Tales Today. IPO Losses Top $100 Billion. 
Counting Blessings on Thanksgiving.
Real Estate Prices Decline. 
Hong Kong Slides into a Recession. China Slows. 
They Trusted Him. Now He Doesn't Return Phone Calls.
Beyond Meat's Shares Dive 67% in 2 Months.
Price Matters. 
Will There be a Santa Rally? It's Up to Apple. Will JP Morgan Implode on Fairy Tales and Unicorns.
Harness Your Emotions for Successful Investing.
What the Ford Downgrade Means for Main Street.
The Dow Dropped Over 1000 Points
Tesla's 3Q 2019 Deliveries Could Hit 100,000.
Do We Talk Ourselves into Recessions? Interview with Nobel Prize Winning Economist Robert J. Shiller.
​The Winners and Loser of a Clean Energy Policy. 
Make the Climate Strike Personal. 
Ford is Downgraded to Junk.
From Buried Alive in Bill to Buying Your Own Island.
The Manufacturing Recession. An Interview with Liz Ann Sonders.
Gold Mining ETFs Have Doubled. 
The Gold Bull Market Has Begun. 
The We Work IPO. 
The Highs and Hangovers of Investing in Cannabis. 
Recession Proof Your Life. 
China Takes a Bite Out of Apple Sales.
Will the Dow Hit 30,000? A Check Up on the Economy
Red Flags in the Boeing 2Q 2019 Earnings Report
The Weakening Economy. 
Think Capture Gains, Not Stop Losses. 
Buy and Hold Works. Right?
​Wall Street Secrets Your Broker Isn't Telling You. 
Unaffordability: The Unspoken Housing Crisis in America. 
Are You Being Pressured to Buy a Home or Stocks?
What's Your Exit Strategy? 
Will the Feds Lower Interest Rates on June 19, 2019?
Should You Buy Tesla at a 2 1/2 Year Low? 
It's Time To Do Your Annual Rebalancing.
Cannabis Crashes. Should You Get High Again? 
Are You Suffering From Buy High, Sell Low Mentality?
Financial Engineering is Not Real Growth
The Zoom IPO. 
10 Rally Killers. Fix the Roof While the Sun is Shining.
Uber vs. Lyft. Which IPO Will Drive Returns?
Boeing Cuts 737 Production by 20%.
Tesla Delivery Data Disappoints. Stock Tanks.
Why Did Wells Fargo's CEO Get the Boot?
Earth Gratitude This Earth Day. 
Real Estate is Back to an All-Time High. 
Is the Spring Rally Over?
The Lyft IPO Hits Wall Street. Should you take a ride?
Cannabis Doubles. Did you miss the party?
12 Investing Mistakes
Drowning in Debt? Get Solutions. 
What's Hot in 2019?
The Debt Ceiling Was Hit (Again) on March 1, 2019.
How Bad Will the GDP Report Be?
2019 Investor IQ Test
The State of the Union
CBD Oil for Sale.
The High Cost of Free Advice. 
Apple's Real Problem in China: Huawei. 
2019 Crystal Ball.
2018 is the Worst December Ever. 
Will the Feds Raise Interest Rates? Should They? Learn what you're not being told in the MSM.
Why FANG, Banks and Your Value Funds Are in Trouble.
When the Santa Rally is a Loser, the Next Year is a Bigger Loser. 
Russia Dumps Treasuries and Buys Gold
OPEC and Russia Cut Oil Production. 
​
Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.

As of February 14, 2020, the CoronaVirus had claimed the lives of 1,382 individuals, with more than 64,000 known cases of the virus. That is a very high mortality rate for a virus, at 2.2%. Most of us think about getting over a cold or flu within a few days or weeks, so having a deadly virus like COVID-19 is alarming and causing an “abundance of caution” for a great many people around the world, particularly any company that has a factory or store in China. Many U.S. companies fall into that category – particularly in the technology industry. 
 
There is a cruise ship quarantined in Japan, where sadly one person passed away. (There has also been a death in the Philippines.) Travel in certain areas of China has been severely restricted. On Feb. 12, 2020, Mobile World Congress 2020 Barcelona, the largest mobile communications trade show, was canceled. One of the world’s largest Chinese factories, FoxConn, has been dark since the news of the virus hit, and is still off-line. Apple headquarters and retail stores in China are closed, as are Tesla stores, though Tesla claims that their Gigafactory is back to work. Schools have been conducting classes online.
 
As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Feb. 7, 2020, “Possible spillovers from the effects of the coronavirus in China have presented a new risk to the outlook.” Before news of the virus, the economy was predicted to grow 2.0% in the U.S. in 2020 and 5.9% in China. Economists have warned that China could dip as low as 3.8%. 

Although the multinational companies are scrubbing the Internet of news of their store and factory closures, it seems pretty clear that the factory closures will cause global supply chain disruptions and inventory backlogs and lackluster product sales in China in the first quarter of 2020. The only real questions are, “How much?” and “Which countries and companies will be impacted the most?”
 
Which Countries and Companies Will be Impacted the Most By COVID-19?

• China is the Factory to the World: Makers of the world’s electronic devices will experience supply chain disruptions and backlogs. Apple will be impacted in both sales and the supply chain. Samsung recently moved their factories to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, so the impact on Samsung’s inventory could be minimal. The fashion industry, which is already seeing major retailers and brands go bankrupt in the Retail Apocalypse, will also be hit.  
• China Buys a Lot of Technology & Fashion from the U.S. and Europe. 15% of Apple’s revenue comes from China, with 30% coming from Asia (including Japan). (Email or call our offices if you’d like access to the COVID-19 Stock Report Card.) Qualcomm and Broadcom revenues are concentrated heavily in China – with 47.8% and 35% of revenues coming from China, respectively. Microchips from Intel and AMD sell in China, as do artificial intelligence software (Nvidia, Micron & Xilinx). China accounts for roughly 12% of Nike’s global sales. See below for a chart of select companies with the percentage of revenue that comes from China.  

​ 

• The FoxConn factory in China, which produces a substantial portion (40% more or less) of the world’s consumer electronic goods for companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo and more, is actually a Taiwanese based company. So, ETFs and mutual funds based out of Taiwan, that hold a significant portion of Hon Hai, as most do, will be impacted by the factory closure.
• Tesla. Tesla’s stores and Chinese Gigafactory were closed due to the coronavirus. Tesla reported in its 8K filing on Feb. 13, 2020 that the factory is open again. (No word on the stores.) However, the Chinese government is in charge, and any factory or store reopening will have to get government approval. At this point, China only accounts for about 12% of Tesla’s revenue. However, increased sales and production in China are built into the growth strategy for Tesla, particularly now that the U.S. tax credit for Tesla vehicles has expired. The factory and store closure will undoubtedly have a negative impact on Tesla’s 1st quarter. 
• Airlines and Auto Manufacturers. Canceled flights mean lower revenue in the 1st quarter of 2020, continuing until the virus is contained. Current expectations are that the peak occurs in March. Auto manufacturers which rely upon Chinese parts could have supply chain disruptions and a backlog of orders.

 
Many companies are trying to reduce the impact of the virus on their next earnings report by widening their forward projections. Qualcomm has a forward outlook on revenue of $4.9-$5.7 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 to $0.95. That is an unprecedented $800 million window of revenue room to be right in. Apple did the same, projecting revenue of $63-$67 billion, with a $4 billion spread. If earnings hit the low end of the target range, then the headlines could be kind. A miss might create concern, at minimum, and alarm if the miss is, well, alarming.
 
The bottom line is that the coronavirus, and the important steps that have been taken to contain the outbreak’s spread, will slow down the world’s economy. Store closures, factory suspensions, travel restrictions and health concerns have put multinational manufacturing on hold, Chinese consumer spending on pause and global citizens on high alert. With any luck, the virus will be contained quickly, and the mortality rate will drop to zero. However, things play out, there will be a negative impact on the next earnings season in April, and on global growth in 2020.
 
Listen to my free teleconference on the subject at BlogTalkRadio.com/NataliePace.

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Important Disclaimers
Please note: Natalie Pace does not act or operate like a broker. She reports on financial news, and is one of the most trusted sources of financial literacy, education and forensic analysis in the world. Natalie Pace educates and informs individual investors to give investors a competitive edge in their personal decision-making. Any publicly traded companies or funds mentioned by Natalie Pace are not intended to be buy or sell recommendations.

ALWAYS do your research and consult an experienced, reputable financial professional before buying or selling any security, and consider your long-term goals and strategies. Investors should NOT be all in on any asset class or individual stocks. Your retirement plan should reflect a diversified strategy, which has been designed with the assistance of a financial professional who is familiar with your goals, risk tolerance, tax needs and more. The "trading" portion of your portfolio should be a very small part of your investment strategy, and the amount of money you invest into individual companies should never be greater than your experience, wisdom, knowledge and patience.  

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable however NataliePace.com does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions constitute our judgment as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.